MANILA—The central Philippine city of Tacloban, which was destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan, was practically destined for disaster, according to a recent study on the risks posed by climate change. But the devastating super storm that it predicted wasn’t schedule to arrive until 2021.
Instead, Haiyan struck just two months after the study was conducted, killing at least 6,200 people and displacing millions.
Part of a business risk assessment by the World Wildlife Fund and the Bank of the Philippine Islands Foundation, the study looks at several different cities in the Philippines and determines how vulnerable they are to the impacts of climate change. It then outlines various worst-case scenarios if those vulnerabilities are not addressed and offers tips on how to avoid them.
As part of its forecast, the study predicts that Leyte province and its capital, Tacloban, will be hit by debilitating disasters, beginning with a super typhoon in 2021 and the eruption of the long-dormant volcano in 2022.
An even worse case scenario envisages a strong earthquake that triggers a tsunami that hits the city and causes landslides and the collapse of the San Juanico Bridge, which links Leyte to the nearby island of Samar.
It says Tacloban is within the “jaws” of a “climate sandwich,” since its upland villages are prone to landslides while its low-lying wetlands are vulnerable to flooding. The city sits at an average elevation of less than 10 feet above sea level.
The predictions outlined in the study, which was released on Tuesday, seem almost haunting now, two months after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines on Nov. 8, proving to be the most deadly storm in the country’s history.
For example, in one forecast it say a super storm will disrupt agriculture and other economic activities “for an extended period,” bringing the local economy “to virtual collapse.”
It also notes that the location of Tacloban’s airport is “of particular concern” and that a seawall built in 2012 “may not be sufficient” to prevent damage that could be caused by rising sea levels and intensifying tropical cyclones resulting from climate change.
The airport was destroyed by Haiyan, along with roads, fishing boats, coconut plantations and other major infrastructure. Even now, several months after the typhoon, businesses operations in many parts of Tacloban and its neighboring towns remain crippled.
While the predictions for Tacloban appear to have played out earlier than expected, the authors of the study say its recommendations remain relevant.
“Tacloban now has an excellent opportunity not just to rebuild – but to rebuild better,” Florencio Maranan, the executive director and senior vice president of the BPI Foundation, said in a statement.
That means upgrading the city’s drainage systems, managing upland areas to reduce the risk of landslides, building a rain-collection system and relocating hospitals and evacuation centers to safer places.
Tacloban and other vulnerable cities should also invest in early warning systems, the study advises.
India faced similar challenges prior to the 1999 cyclone that struck the east coast of India and killed 10,000 people, it notes. But actions taken by the Indian government in the years since have helped the country avoid similar large scale disasters.
The Philippine cities covered by the risk assessment were selected based mainly on the frequency of storms, floods, drought and other extreme weather-related events over the past decade. The yearly study was started in 2011 and now covers 12 cities across the country. Tacloban was covered for the first time last year, and four more cities will be evaluated in 2014.
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