Presentation on theme: "Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires Cartier Coleman."— Presentation transcript:
Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires Cartier Coleman
Research Question Theoretical Focus History of Afghanistan Current Issues Relevance & Focus
How does a local Afghan citizen’s viewpoint on security impact coalition efforts to rebuild the nation?
While the efforts to fight terrorism initially brought the U.S. to Afghanistan, as in many situations, the U.S. mission shifted and turned into nation building. Unfortunately, the war in Afghanistan has persisted for over ten years and efforts to quell violence, contain insurgency and rebuild Afghanistan have not consistently improved. Security in Afghanistan has and will continue to be a problem until security is addressed through a constructivist lens in order to help truly identify and solve issues within the nation. Through the constructivist lens, it can be shown that Afghanistan can have a successful and stable future, as well as garner international respect through better understanding and applying the organic issues they face to help counter historic and emerging problems.
Why the Constructivist lens best fits What factors contribute to Afghan concerns 20 th Cent Afghan pre-USSR Russian Invasion Taliban U.S. Invasion How this lens can impact change Mistakes of the past repeated Key civilian concerns ignored
1926, Amanullah Khan founded an Afghan Monarchy Progressive and pushed for modernization 1929,Habibullah Khan overthrew Khan & in turn was killed by Prince Nadir Khan (cousin of Emir Khan) Attempted gradual modernization 1933 Nadir Khan killed, son Zahir Shah became king 1964 Zahir began to experiment with democracy Bicameral legislature split into thirds 1973 nonviolent coupe led to former PM Daoud Khan 1978 PDPA kills Daoud & family and takes over Afghan Continued warring with multiple factions occur (Afghan becomes DRA)
Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (via PDPA) Socialism Land Reform Women’s Rights Invitation of USSR to establish infrastructure Killing of historic elites Populace perception Increasingly less popular Too dependent on USSR Too liberal/modern No local support, security or services
Factors prompting invasion Egypt-Israel peace treaty Strategic placement Perceived natural resources Spread/support DRA & communism U.S. Support to Mujahedeen Chance to impact USSR during Cold War I.C. assistance to strain USSR economy Strategic advantage Factors prompting exit Gorbachev, costly-long and I.C. view/pressure Populace perception No local needs addressed, no support of DRA
Factors causing Taliban rule Continued warring factions Warlords/Opium Lawlessness/Corruption Mullah Omar Motivation to act Meaning of Talib Establishing Taliban Populace perception Initially very popular Addressed immediate local needs Faith based and then a shift – no local needs
Factors causing invasion Attacks of 9/11 Osama bin Laden Refusal to extradite Initial mandate & shift Capture/Kill bin Laden Nation building Iraq War impacts Populace perception Initially no concern Initially popular False hope Karzai and ANSF (Old regime/corruption)
Factors causing surge Inability to quell opium harvesting Taliban Resurgence Purpose of Surge Create model province (Khandahar) Prevent Taliban Resurgence Establish security Populace perception No trust in Gov’t Dependency on U.S. Limited to no local services
Current State of Security Current methodology (COIN/Kinetic focus) How “we” view security? Security from an Afghan’s View Priorities/Concerns What type of security is important to them? Who has the most influence on the people?
Constructivist corrective lens Gives understanding to populace motives Identifies why the Taliban (like groups) thrive Helps identify possible attainable objectives Relevance Outline/guide to solutions Helps shape and gives basis for my thesis Focus Answers research question Shapes possible recommendations toward solution
Achievable Goals Gov’t Corruption (legitimize gov’t in public eyes) Identify three “model” provinces for EMS/Sec policy change Quantitative kinetic targeting of Taliban/Ins leaders (deadlines & smaller target list) Mullah outreach programs
Afghan Security Forces Status 191,592 – Afghan National Army (May 2012) 146,641 – Afghan National Police (June 2012) Total – 338,233 Future concerns 87,000 – Troops Deployed in Afghanistan (June 2012) 113,736 – Department of Defense (DoD) Contractors (July 2012) 28,686 – DoD Private Security – does not include USAID and State Budget, 10% funding by Afghanistan U.S./NATO Timeline & Impact 2014 objective