Just how realistic IS California earthquake disaster movie San Andreas? Seismologist reveals all
- In San Andreas film,Southern California is rocked by a powerful magnitude-9.1 quake followed by even stronger magnitude-9.6 in Northern California
- U.S. Geological Survey seismologist said earthquakes this large are near impossible because San Andreas fault is not long or deep enough
- Seismologist Susan Hough said that earthquake-prediction technology hasn't advanced as far as it shows in the film
- Hough said though a tsunami hits in the film, that wouldn't happen in reality - but added that the fault will break again without warning
The San Andreas Fault awakens, unleashing back-to-back jolts that leave a trail of misery from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Skyscrapers crumble. Fires erupt. The letters of the Hollywood sign topple. Tsunami waves swamp the Golden Gate Bridge.
Hollywood's favorite geologic bad guy is back in 'San Andreas' - a fantastical look at one of the world's real seismic threats.
But film viewers might ask as they watch the film, just how accurate is it?
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San Andreas, starring Dwayne Johnson (center), creates a fantastical look at one of the world's real seismic threats
In the aftermath of the earthquake in the film, a tsunami hits, but U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Susan Hough said that this would not happen in real life
THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT
The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles.
Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region.
The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.
The San Andreas has long been considered one of the most dangerous earthquake faults because of its length.
At nearly 800 miles long, it cuts through California like a scar and is responsible for some of the largest shakers in state history.
In the film, opening this Friday, a previously unknown fault near the Hoover Dam in Nevada ruptures and jiggles the San Andreas.
Southern California is rocked by a powerful magnitude-9.1 quake followed by an even stronger magnitude-9.6 in Northern California.
The San Andreas is notorious for producing big ones, but a magnitude-9 or larger is virtually impossible because the fault is not long or deep enough, U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Susan Hough told the Associated Press.
Despite the implausible plot, however, she said the San Andreas will indeed break again, and without warning
The most powerful tremors in recorded history have struck along offshore subduction zones where one massive tectonic plate dives beneath another.
The 1960 magnitude-9.5 quake off Chile is the current world record holder.
In 2008, the USGS led a team of 300 experts that wrote a script detailing what would happen if a magnitude-7.8 hit the southern San Andreas. They wanted to create a science-based crisis scenario that can be used for preparedness drills.
But, Hough added, when it does break again, it will not be like the film, where multiple magnitude-9 earthquakes hit across California and can be fest from as far as the East Coast
The San Andreas fault line runs up the coast of California, and Hough said is poses a threat of breaking again without warning
The lesson: It doesn't take a magnitude-9 or greater to wreak havoc. Researchers calculated a magnitude-7.8 would cause 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries.
Hundreds of old brick buildings and concrete structures and a few high-rise steel buildings would collapse.
Computer models show the San Andreas is capable of producing a magnitude-8.3 quake, but anything larger is dubious.
In the film, Lawrence Hayes, a fictional seismologist at California Institute of Technology, notices spikes in 'magnetic pulses' that light up California like a Christmas tree, heralding a monster quake.
Despite a century of research, in reality earthquake prediction remains elusive. Scientists can't predict when a jolt is coming and are generally pessimistic about ever having that ability.
Every warning sign scrutinized - animal behavior, weather patterns, electromagnetic signals, atmospheric observations, levels of radon gas in soil or groundwater - has failed.
'We wish it were as simple as the movie portrays. It isn't. Researchers have scoured every imaginable signal trying to find reliable precursors, but nothing has panned out,' Hough said.
The film appears to show total destruction across the West Coast. Computer models show the San Andreas is capable of producing a magnitude-8.3 quake, but anything larger is dubious
The latest focus has been on creating early warning systems that give residents and businesses a few seconds heads up after a quake hits, but before strong shaking is felt.
Japan has the most advanced seismic alert system in the world while the United States is currently testing a prototype.
And, unlike the film, the San Andreas can't spawn tsunamis.
Most tsunamis are triggered by underwater quakes, but they can also be caused by landslides, volcanoes and even meteor impacts.
Giant tsunami waves are formed when the Earth's crust violently shifts, displacing huge amounts of seawater.
The larger the magnitude, the more these waves can race across the ocean without losing energy.
The San Andreas is strike-slip fault, in which opposing blocks of rocks slide past each other horizontally.
THE 1906 EARTHQUAKE
The M 7.8 San Francisco earthquake of 1906 struck the coast at 5.12 am on 18 April 18. Devastating fires lasting several days broke out in the city.
As a result about 3,000 people died and over 80 percent of San Francisco was destroyed.
The earthquake and resulting fire are remembered as one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the US alongside the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
People watch smoke billowing from fires after a severe earthquake hit San Francisco April 18, 1906.
Santa Rosa City Hall lies in ruins in this photo taken in April of 1906, after a devastating earthquake in San Francisco. Santa Rosa, a farm town then, lost 119 of the 7,500 residents when the San Andreas snapped and lurched on April 18, 1906.
A big San Andreas quake can spark fires and other mayhem, but it can't displace water and flood San Francisco.
Hough said the movie got one aspect right: The tide suddenly ebbing out signals a tsunami is coming.
More than 80 - mostly small - tsunamis have been observed along California's coast in the past, triggered mainly by faraway quakes.
In the movie, the scientist warned that shaking would be felt on the East Coast.
But even the largest possible San Andreas quake won't rattle the East Coast.
While seismic waves from great quakes can make the Earth reverberate like a bell, the ringing can only be detected by sensitive instruments because it's so low.
Historical accounts show shaking from the 1906 San Andreas quake was barely felt in western Nevada and southern Oregon, Hough said.
When the ground starts to shake, in the film, the seismologist played by Paul Giamatti makes the ideal public service announcement: 'Drop, cover and hold on.'
Hough did say, however, that having Paul Giamatti and Dwayne Johnson (pictured) accurately tell people how to take cover during an earthquake is 'one heck of a PSA'
Since 2008, millions of people in California and elsewhere have participated in yearly disaster drills in which they practice diving under a table and learn other preparedness tips.
If you're outdoors when the ground moves, experts recommend bracing against a wall, similar to what search-and-rescue helicopter pilot Ray Gaines, played by Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, told scared survivors in the movie.
'Having Paul Giamatti shouting, 'Drop, cover and hold on!' and The Rock telling people to crouch against a wall if they can is one heck of a PSA,' Hough said.
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