The project is structured around 6 interconnected themes.
1: Food Production
We will bring together and update global, high resolution data sets on crop and livestock productivities under different management scenarios. This will provide the base data for agricultural production and land use impacts analysis.
Researchers: James Gerber and Paul West, University of Minnesota (lead), Mario Herrero, CSIRO
2: Food Demand
We will derive country-level data on nutritionally balanced dietary demands for food commodities using FAO food balance sheets and nutritional demands. Data will be used with the global FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) model, which will be developed provide an assessment of the nutritional quality of diets that is more sensitive than those based on energy consumption (kcal) alone.
Researchers: Jennie Macdiarmid, Rowett Institute and SFSA-C (Aberdeen), Terry Dawson, Kings College London and SFSA-C (London)
3: Agent-Based Modelling
An agent-based modeling system for global and country-level food supply and demand that incorporates economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade will be developed. The model will enable country agents to employ different strategies to reach a goal of meeting current and future nutritionally balance dietary demands. They will manipulate control variables with food demand data, trade statistics, and expert opinion. Various scenarios (such as climate change impacts on domestic crop and livestock production, rising incomes, land acquisition, resource shortages, and demographic change) and their effects will be investigated and evaluated
Researchers: Robin Matthews, SFSA-C (Aberdeen) and James Hutton Institute (lead), and Gary Polhill, James Hutton Institute
4: Scenario Analysis
We will use the agent-based modeling system to examine different scenarios for improving food and nutrition security. The scenarios will consider both supply-side (production) measures and demand-side measures and the feedbacks of the scenarios on land use and food supply will be examined globally. To do this, we will engage stakeholders in the development and testing of the elements considered in the scenarios, so the analysis can offer relevant policy considerations.
Researchers: Jean-François Soussana, INRA, (lead), Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen
5: Regional Impact Assessment
Finally, we will examine the implications of the global scenario analysis in four regions with great importance for food and nutrition security and land use change: South America, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and China. Regional coordinators will use the regional-scale outputs of the scenario analysis to assess the impacts on food security, land use change, and ecosystem services, as well as the social and economic implications. Workshops in each area will provide opportunities for local stakeholders to participate in the analysis of the scenarios and give researchers feedback for shaping alternative scenarios.
Researchers: Bob Scholes, Wits (lead, regional lead Sub-Saharan Africa), Jean Ometto, INPE (regional lead South America), AK Nayak, CRRI (regional lead South Asia), Lijun Zuo (China)
6: Knowledge Exchange and Outreach
The project includes a comprehensive program to engage stakeholders for knowledge exchange and education. Planned activities include meetings and workshops with international policy body stakeholders and with regional stakeholders in the four study regions (South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and China); development and provision of extension materials in study regions; summer school courses for university and post-graduate students; and a communications platform to facilitate dissemination of project outputs.
Researchers: Nina Buchmann, ETH Zurich World Food System Center (lead), Anna K. Gilgen, Jonna Cohen and Michelle Grant, ETH Zurich World Food System Center; Jean Ometto, INPE; Bob Scholes, Wits; AK Nayak, CRRI