Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.
A study reveals Global Positioning System receivers to be unexpectedly vulnerable to bursts of radio noise produced by solar flares, created by explosions in the Sun's atmosphere.
When solar activity peaks in 2011 and 2012, it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data.
Particularly intense solar activity occurs roughly every 11 years due to cyclic changes to the Sun's magnetic field - a peak period known as the solar maximum.
Solar flares send charged particles crashing into the outer fringes of the Earth's atmosphere at high velocity, generating auroras and geomagnetic storms.
Charged particles from solar flares also produce intense bursts of radio noise, which peak in the 1.2 and 1.6 gigahertz bands used by GPS. Normally, radio noise in these bands is very low, so receivers can easily pick up weak signals from orbiting satellites.
In 2005, however, Cornell University graduate student Alessandro Cerruti discovered a puzzling failure in GPS reception while operating a receiver at Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.
Along with Paul Kintner, from the university's electrical engineering department, Cerruti traced the problem to a radio burst induced by a solar flare. They found that GPS receivers operated by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Brazilian Air Force experienced similar disruption during this burst of solar activity.
The researchers say the problem has escaped detection before because GPS systems have spread in popularity during a time of relatively low solar activity.
Discovering the disruption was surprising. "[Other] people will be surprised at the next solar maximum," Kintner says. Both the number and intensity of radio flares will increase and could drown out GPS signals during this period, he says.
This may be a problem for aircraft navigation as the FAA uses reference GPS receivers on the ground for air traffic control. Kintner says these "will certainly fail" during these intense solar flare radio bursts, which could produce noise drowning out signals. Although planes can fly without GPS, outages force the FAA to increase the distance between aircraft and slow take-offs and landings, delaying flights.
GPS is also used for emergency rescues and also to synchronise power grids and cellphone networks. One solution, says Kintner, would be to increase the strength of GPS signals. But this would mean redesigning GPS satellite hardware and software
Cerruti presented details of the problem at a meeting of the Institute of Navigation on 28 September. Details will be published in a forthcoming issue of the journal Space Weather.
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Fri Apr 18 20:11:26 BST 2008 by Stephany Daum
This was predicted by the mayans in3114bc the exact date predicted was12/21 or 12/22/12, why dont our own experts take a look at their calenders in stone.
Mon Mar 09 01:51:57 GMT 2009 by marie
Because each generation did everything to forget what other generations have learned the hard way and we do think we are the Masters of the World but a mega tempest from the sun with the wrong polarity and we are history...No more technology, I think we have a big lesson of humility to learn here...thank you for quoting the Mayas..but the scientists tend to see that we are heading for a major event...The whole solar system has changed in 20/30 years
The sun has increased his activity since 1940, solar eruptions More sun spots and strong storms And so more than the past 1150 years!!!
Not only does it affect the Earth but the whole solar system
We are experiencing not only a local global warming But a warming of the whole solar system
Common Sense To Solar Flares
Tue May 20 10:48:49 BST 2008 by Ben
The solar flare argument knocking out GPS satellites with noise interference is certainly an possible explanation for the outage. My question is "why were scientists not aware or prepared for this activity?"
Surely if scientists can predict sunspots cycles in 2011 & 2012 - the 2006 incident surely should have been a 'piece of cake."
Why was such a major solar event not reported to the general public immediately - if it affected things like aircraft take-offs and landings?
I'm no scientist, just a guy from the public trying to make sense of this problem. If you turned up the signal strength on GPS satellites will this create harmful exposure to humans?
Let us know what's really going on guys...
Well That's Just Great
Fri May 30 08:15:31 BST 2008 by Bob
I'm glad I kept my nautical sextant. How about Loran?
I kept that too. Loran operates at 100 kHz vs 1.6 gHz.
How badly are signals distorted at 100 khz in a solar
storm? Worse yet will these storms knock any satellites out?
If so GPS might be down for more than a just few days. At least LORAN will be back after the storm is over. It's probably a good idea that they didn't decide to scrap that system like they were talking about a few years back.
Well That's Just Great
Thu Nov 20 19:29:07 GMT 2008 by Et3 Brendan Eustace, Uscg
I'm a LORAN Technician/Operator at USCG LORAn Station Seneca in NY. I stumbled accross this actually looking for some information on solar flares.
I see this being a huge issue in the forth coming events predicted. One thing in particular being that our timing components are actually steered by a GPS correction signal. So the funny thing about LORAN is that it's GPS's back up, relying on GPS for integrity, but, the equipment can run with no GPS input, but will go very much out of tolerences with a BAD GPS input. I won't be stationed here when these events occur, but the personell that will be, will be forced to disable the GPS steering modules of our timing equipment for that period. Also, solar events such as predicted, could majorly effect our signals as well. This would be bad because most LORAN stations these days are no longer manned 24-7 forcing staff to be on board for much longer. My station only has 4 persons working here, which means lots of extra working hours, and with major and often solar events, lots of strenuous times of timing recovery as well.
While, yes, LORAN will recover almost instantaneoulsy after an event, we would still be in a degraded state without GPS steering. Personell will have to be on board to recovery from any equipment casualties as well cause by major timing jumps.
Man, glad I'll be out of here by the.
**unofficial statements based on personal speculations of me.**
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