A helpful discussion on how climate change might impact on the prevalence of malaria has been published in the US online newspaper The Faster Times. Written by a scientist - Anome Akpogheneta PhD, whose own doctoral research focused upon malaria immuno-epidemiology - the article makes it clear that there are different views as to whether global warming will have a significant impact on the number of malaria cases. Different modelling studies have produced conflicting results.
Dr Akpogheneta quotes Professor Steve Lindsay of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who says that while models can help provide a “broad brush understanding” they should not be taken too seriously. Professor Paul Reiter at the Institut Pasteur has also said that many models “sidestep factors that are key to the transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behaviour of both humans and vectors, and the immunity of the human population”.
The author concludes that, “Over-emphasis on global warming in relation to malaria misses the mark on the immediate need to address persistent socio-economic and political factors which drive malaria transmission”.
It is unusual to see such balanced and well-informed discussion in the “popular” media. More scientists should write like this.