The following animation shows the 23 decadel averaged temperature from 1861 to 2100 based surface temperatures calculated by CNRM-CM5 (the French GCM) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario.
CNRM-C5 has an average CMIP5 climate sensitivity and predicts a net warming of ~4C by 2100 for the worst case scenario. It is highlighted in the plot camparison to most CMIP5 models below.
I show below an animation of the results from the CMIP5 model CNRM-CM5 for predicted global warming under the worst case scenario RCP8.5. Normaly such results are shown as temperature anomalies so that northern zones appear to be getting relatively much warmer. Here the results are shown as absolute temperatures in degrees centigrade. This demonstrates that although temperatures rise, climate zones don’t expand that much.
The data are decadel temperature averages calculated on a 1×1 degree grid. I will look at Europe in a bit more detail in the next post.
Will the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice melt completely by the end of this century? I show below what one CMIP5 model – the Centre National Recereche Metorological CNRM-CM5 is predicting. The images are generated from the sea ice field output by the model between 1861 and 2100.
Plotted here are the Antarctica sea ice levels for Sep between 1861 and 2099. This is the maximum month for sea ice. What is not shown is the Antarctica ice sheets on land. Only if these melt will it make a difference to sea levels. Freezing and melting oceans with the seasons do not change sea level.
This is how the Arctic winter ice looks during the same 240 year period.
The summer ice in the Arctic is predicted to dissappear by 2040-2060. A minimal amount still remains in the Antarctic summer in 2060 but that too dissapears by 2100.
Whether summer ice in the Arctic will completely disappear is something that we will surely know within the next ten years.
Not all models agree on the rate of ice loss either. I show below a comparison of CSIRO and GISS models for a 12 monthly running average of total ice cover. For some reason they don’t even agree about the cover in 1860. Perhaps there is a problem of definition.
Comparison of ocean ice cover from 1861 to 2100. The red curve is a running 12 month average from GISS-E2-H, while the black curve is CSIRO-MK3