MELBOURNE — Technological leaps promise better hurricane forecasts in the next few years.
But aging satellites could jeopardize those gains and the future of storm forecasting in the long run.
First, the good news:
This will be the first year meteorologists in Melbourne and elsewhere in Florida tap new 3-D radar systems that yield more precise data that could lead to timelier flash-flood, hail and other extreme weather warnings.
Global Hawk, a long-distance drone operated by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will continue this hurricane season to spy the storm traits that reveal how cyclones intensify — the holy grail of hurricane forecasting.
Track forecasting accuracy has improved so much in recent years that the National Hurricane Center in Miami plans to experiment this season with creating hurricane track forecasts up to seven days in advance, instead of the current five days.
Now the not-so-good news:
All these new tricks of the forecasting trade remain experimental with uncertain odds of success. Meanwhile, a dwindling number of satellite launches in coming years threatens the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, especially when it comes to their most deadly trait — the ability to strengthen rapidly.
"Since some of those satellites are failing, we're not getting as many passes over storms," said Robbie Berg, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. "We can't make the most accurate intensity forecasts."
"The nation's Earth observing system is beginning a rapid decline in capability as long-running missions end and key new missions are delayed, lost, or canceled," wrote the authors of a National Research Council analysis released last month.
Budget cuts have stalled or scrubbed missions to replace aging satellites. So instruments monitoring weather from space will drop from 110 to fewer than 30 by 2020, if nothing's done, the report predicts.
A similar review five years ago projected eight new weather satellites in space by this year, but only three made it. Of the other five, one got canceled, two failed and another two won't blast off until next year at the earliest.
Even fewer satellites are planned during the next decade.
"Consequences are likely to include slowing or even reversal of the steady gains in weather forecast accuracy over many years and degradation of the ability to assess and respond to natural hazards and to measure and understand changes in Earth's climate and life support systems," the NRC authors wrote.
The report cites Congress' failure to restore the Earth science budget to the $2 billion scientists say is needed.
The 2007 review recommended 18 missions through 2020, but just two are even close enough to being finished to have launch dates.
And one key satellite for hurricane forecasters has been kaput for two years. QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) once estimated wind direction and speed over the oceans. Launched in 1999, QuikSCAT lasted well beyond its expected life span but stopped working in late 2009. It was the only satellite that provided such a large swath snapshot of a tropical cyclone's surface winds.
Forecasters now look to another similar satellite, Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) to fill the void. But that provides much narrower swaths, "So we tend to miss storms more than QuikSCAT did," Robbie Berg, of the National Hurricane Center, said.
And forecasters lack confidence in foreign satellites, one of which just went silent.
Drones to the rescue?
Drones could help fill some of the satellite gap.
NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center in Edwards, Calif., operates two Northrop Grumman Global Hawk drones that can fly into spots considered too dangerous for crewed aircraft. The drones have a 11,000-nautical-mile range and can stay in flight 32 hours.
Scientists liken the drones to roving low-orbit satellites that will give unprecedented glimpses inside storms.
Manned flights typically yield about four hours of data collection for a forming storm. But Global Hawk is fitted with 3-D radar, a microwave radiometer and other sophisticated instruments that enable it to gather data over tropical systems for up to 20 hours.
Unlike the armed Predator drone, Global Hawk carries no weapons.
Each costs about $35 million to build and $123 million when support systems are included. The aircraft originally were valued at about $18 million each when first built.
Despite its rising cost, Global Hawk should pay off in hurricane damage averted through earlier, more accurate warnings about storm intensity, the drone's proponents say.
The drones could yield clues about whether lightning is a good predictor of storm strength, the role of Saharan dust, and whether humidity, temperature, rain and clouds lead to cyclones, or smaller-scale interactions between those elements.
But Global Hawk's data first must be verified before researchers know how useful it might be.
Other, more proven tools are already at forecasters' fingertips this hurricane season.
From his terminal, meteorologist Tim Sedlock now gets better glimpses of the density and size of raindrops, hail and other objects.
He monitors a computer display of a new $225,000 radar that can filter out the echo clutter from birds, bats or bugs that obscure the weather picture.The National Weather Service's Melbourne International Airport location — one of the first to get Doppler radar more than 20 years ago — also is among the first wave of weather service stations to receive dual polarization, or "dual pol," radar. It was installed in January.
The 80-foot-high fiberglass dome is part of a $50 million upgrade to 160 radars nationwide and five overseas locations during the next two years.
The upgrade will improve predictions of coastal rain.
"In the end, we'll have better estimates of rainfall," Sedlock said.
But all the cutting-edge technology in the world can't save the ill-prepared, weather officials warn.
"This is the time to have a plan," said Bart Hagemeyer, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
"A lot of people don't really have detailed plans."