THE CLIMATE ACCORD: THE OUTLOOK
THE CLIMATE ACCORD: THE OUTLOOK; Despite Pact, Gases Will Keep Rising
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
Published: December 12, 1997
KYOTO, Japan, Dec. 11— In a corner of the tiled tunnel leading from a subway stop to the Kyoto International Conference Hall, the kindergarten children of Kyoto left a message for delegates to the climate conference here this week.
Their message was an assemblage of miniature trees and flowers accompanied by a small sign. ''The Kyoto people are praying for the success of this conference,'' the sign said. ''The future of all people, especially the children, depends largely on the outcome of this conference.''
But even if it is ultimately ratified, the agreement to cut emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that emerged today from 10 days of high-stakes politicking will not secure those children, or their children, from the climatic disruptions that mainstream scientists say lie ahead. Participating countries could obey its emission limits to the letter, and atmospheric levels of the gases, produced chiefly by the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil, would continue to rise.
The Kyoto Protocol does make a start, however. It would establish at least the foundation of an institutional framework and accompanying mechanisms for dealing with the problem in coming decades. And it signals business and industry that the issue is here to stay, that the ways in which energy is produced and used must change, and that these issues should be taken into consideration in planning and investing for the long term.
The burning of coal, oil and natural gas, the energy mainstays of the modern economy, produces waste carbon dioxide that remains in the atmosphere, trapping heat. If nothing is done to limit emission of these gases, scientists advising the delegates here say, the earth's average surface temperature will rise by 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 if the world pursues business as usual. (By comparison, the world is now only 5 to 9 degrees warmer than in the depths of the last ice age.) The scientists say this much warming would bring rising seas, more severe droughts, rainstorms, heat waves and floods, together with broad shifts in climatic and agricultural zones that would benefit some regions but seriously harm others.
The Kyoto Protocol legally binds industrialized countries to cut their greenhouse emissions, collectively, by an annual average of about 5 percent below 1990 levels for the period 2008 through 2012 -- a 30 percent reduction below what they would otherwise be. Some are to cut more than that, some less, and a few will be allowed to let their emissions grow because of special circumstances. Among the industrialized big three, the United States must reduce its emissions 7 percent below 1990 levels, the 15-nation European Union 8 percent and Japan 6 percent.
But even if the countries adopt and adhere to these standards, an uncertain prospect, they will only be slowing the accumulation of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. As a result, many experts believe that it may already be too late to avoid serious climatic disruption, that the task ahead is one of keeping it from becoming truly catastrophic.
Although there are dissenters, many scientists now predict that unless far more drastic action is taken, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the major contributor to climate change, will double sometime late in the next century from the pre-industrial levels of the late 18th century.
Atmospheric levels of cardon dioxide are now about 360 parts per million, and many experts say it will be difficult, if not impossible, to stabilize them at 550 parts per million, close to a doubling of pre-industrial concentrations. Though it is difficult to predict exactly what climate changes would result from such a doubling, there is wide agreement that they would be highly disruptive.
Predictably, the fossil fuel industry warned that the Kyoto cuts would bring economic pain, while some environmentalists said they did not go far enough. Other environmentalists and many business interests hailed the protocol as a solid agreement that would make the economy more efficient and boost growth in the long term. Only time will tell who is right.
What seems clearer is that ordinary Americans will notice little immediate impact on their everyday lives. If it is able to win Senate approval of the agreement, the Clinton Administration intends to phase in domestic measures to meet the Kyoto target over time, starting with the provision of financial incentives, tax cuts and cooperative government-industry efforts to accelerate the use of energy-efficient technologies.
After a decade or so of experience, according to the Clinton plan, the United States would inaugurate the centerpiece of its emissions-cutting strategy and a principle hard-won here: emissions trading. Under this arrangement, a cap would be set on permissible carbon-dioxide emissions. Companies that reduce their emissions more than required could sell the excess emissions, at a profit, to those that exceed the cap.
The Administration argues that use of this mechanism for reducing industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide has shown that it achieves more emissions cuts at lower cost.
But emissions trading emerged as one of the most contentious items here, almost torpedoing the talks. After a bitter 11th-hour debate, the developing nations agreed to an international trading mechanism for developed countries. But they fear that trading would allow rich countries to buy their way out of reduction obligations, so it remains to be seen whether they will agree to the regulations necessary to make it work. The issue will be debated in the next round of climate talks, scheduled to begin in Buenos Aires in November.
Another innovative mechanism approved here is an international fund through which rich countries could invest in specific emissions-saving projects in developing countries. The two countries involved would share in the resulting emissions credits.
Apart from that, the Kyoto agreement did little about the future involvement of developing countries. While everyone recognizes that their growing greenhouse emissions will ultimately require them to submit to binding limits, the poorer countries have refused to accept them until the richer countries show the way with action. The question remains a subject for future negotiations.
Because the new protocol does so little about developing countries, it is unclear whether the Administration will sign it, and there are very grave doubts that the Senate would approve it. But President Clinton has said he will proceed with his domestic plans for emissions reduction in the meantime. Beyond that, the Kyoto Protocol is about the long term, and the United States could join it at any time in the years immediately ahead if conditions are right.
The 10 days of sleepless negotiations may well have established a adjustable instrument that in coming decades can respond to emerging new knowledge about both the science and economics of the problem -- if the governments of the world buy into it seriously.
Should they do so, the descendants of those Kyoto kindergartners and others like them throughout the world may have cause to be grateful.
Chart: ''AT A GLANCE: The Climate Accord'' REDUCTIONS -- Thirty-eight industrial nations are required to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The European Union would reduce emissions by 8 percent, the United States by 7 percent and Japan by 6 percent. Some countries would face smaller reductions, and a few would not face any now. As a group, the nations would cut emissions of such gases by slightly more than 5 percent below 1990 levels. GASES INVOLVED -- Emissions of six gases would be affected: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and three halocarbons used as substitutes for ozone-damaging chlorofluorocarbons. TRADING EMISSION RIGHTS --Countries that do not meet their own emission targets can strike deals with nations that do better than required, to buy the excess quota. This may encourage reductions to be made where they are most cost-effective. Details of this plan will be negotiated at a meeting next November in Buenos Aires. ENFORCEMENT -- A later meeting of the treaty parties will decide on appropriate and effective ways to deal with noncompliance. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -- Developing countries, including major greenhouse-gas emitters like China and India, are asked to set voluntary reduction targets. RATIFICATION -- The accord approved by the Kyoto conference takes effect once it is ratified by at least 55 nations that represent at least 55 percent of 1990 carbon dioxide emissions. The terms are binding on an individual country only after its government ratifies the accord.