In London this morning (10th February 2010) at the Royal Society, the UK industry task force on peak oil and energy security launched a new report warning of the dangers of the forthcoming oil crunch.
The report, titled “The Oil Crunch – a wake-up call for the UK economy”, finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity within five years. (Note: It already has, but it is good to hear important companies finally acknowledging it)
Having assessed the systemic changes caused by the global economic recession, coupled with the projected growth from non-OECD countries, ITPOES predicts Peak Oil will occur within the next decade, potentially by 2015 at less than 95 million barrels per day. (In 2008, production levels were 85 million barrels per day.) The study finds that the recession has delayed the oil crunch by two years. This provides invaluable time to plan for a future which will see structural increases in oil prices coupled with shortages and increased market volatility.
Q: What is different in this analysis of peak oil – I’ve read hundreds?
A: This is the first time leading businesses have warned that a peak in cheap, easily available oil production is likely to hit by 2013, posing a grave risk to the UK and world economy. The warning comes from a broad spectrum of industry (Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group).
Download the full report here.