Canada has retreated on past promises to fight climate change, setting out lower targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions than any other industralised country so far ahead of a critical conference in Paris.
The announcement was a setback to efforts to reach a deal in the French capital that would limit warming to 2C (3.6F), the threshold for dangerous climate change.
Under the announcement, Canada committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
That is a far weaker target than the European Union or the US. The European Union pledged to reduce emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels, and the US committed to cut emissions to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
The target is also less ambitious than the one Canada set in 2009 – and which it is unlikely to meet because of the vast expansion of Alberta tar sands production under the prime minister, Stephen Harper.
The environment minister, Leona Aglukkaq, who made the announcement in Winnipeg, said the new goals were in keeping with Canada’s economic conditions.
“This target is fair and ambitious, an ambitious commitment based on our national circumstances, which includes a growing population, a diversified growing economy and Canada’s position as a world leader in clean electricity generation,” Aglukkaq said.
But the response from analysts and climate campaigners was scathing – although some also expressed hope that Canada would reconsider ahead of the Paris meeting.
Harper is up for re-election in October. An election upset saw the defeat of Harper’s fellow conservatives in Alberta earlier this month – the first time the party had lost power in 44 years.
“Harper is reneging on his previous commitment to significantly bend the curve of emissions,” said Jake Schmidt, the international programme director for the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Keith Stewart, climate campaigner for Greenpeace Canada, said the weak target made Canada an outlier in the international climate negotiations.
“The Harper government has not only ignored its existing reduction target, but the pro-tar sands policies it has adopted are taking us in the opposite direction,” he said.
David Waskow, who monitors the international climate negotiations for the World Resources Institute thinktank, noted Canada’s target is weaker than the proposals submitted so far from other developed countries.
The commitments offered by the US and the EU would cut emissions by between 2.5 and 2.8% a year. Canada in contrast would trim emissions by about 1.7%, according to WRI analysis.
The target announced on Friday also represents a departure for Canada which had historically tied its emissions cuts to those of the US, and means that the US will now be on a faster trajectory to cut emissions than Canada.
“It’s a weak proposal and it stands in substantial contrast to proposals from other developed countries. Canada really missed an opportunity to put forward something robust that would put it on the right track to address the climate crisis,” said Waskow.
The fine print of Canada’s climate commitment, posted on the United Nations website, suggests the target could be even weaker still. It leaves open the possibility that Canada will not make the 30% cut solely based on its own emissions, but will purchase offsets elsewhere.
Analysts said the lowball target was not unexpected. Over the last decade, Canada has dramatically expanded production from the tar sands, and Harper has lobbied hard in the international arena to open up new markets for tar sands crude.
It demands huge amounts of energy to dig the thick, gooey petroleum from the earth, a process that is up to 4.5 times as carbon intensive as conventional oil extraction.
Tar sands production hovered just below 2m barrels a day last year – and Harper has spoken of ramping up production to 5.5m barrels a day.
The expansion of tar sands production destroyed any prospect of Canada meeting its earlier target of a 17% emissions cut on 2005 levels by 2020, agreed by Harper in 2009. Current analysis suggests Canada will get only halfway to that goal.
The increased production has also overwhelmed efforts by other provinces to cut their carbon pollution.
Amin Asadollahi, the oil sands director of Canada’s Pembina Institute, noted that by 2020 Alberta would be responsible for 40% of the country’s carbon pollution because of the tar sands. The province accounts for about 12% of Canada’s population.
Ontario, which is the country’s most populous province, announced a much more ambitious climate plan this week, cutting emissions 37% from 1990 levels by 2030.
In making the announcement, Aglukkaq indicated that Canada will be leaning heavily on actions by Ontario to reach its target.
She said Canada would also introduce new rules to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector.
“Achieving this ambitious goal will require actions from all levels of government and we will continue to work together, cooperatively with the provinces and the territories’ goals,” Aglukkaq said.