100% Renewable Energy by 2050, Is It Possible?
The World Without Fossil Fuels
Could the world really give up on fossil fuels totally? Jacobson and his colleagues used available data to evaluate how much wind, geothermal, and solar energy each of the 139 countries they studied has at its disposal, and how much of that it would take to attain 80 percent renewable energy usage by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050.
“I was surprised by how many countries we found had enough resources to power themselves with 100 percent wind, water, and solar power,” says Jacobson. The countries could all function using the renewable energy potential included within their own boundaries, and most could do it while relying mainly on technologies that already exist.
The study builds on earlier research by Jacobson that examined the technological feasibility—and the socio-economic benefits—of shifting to renewable energy. That research suggested that the continuous shift to 100 percent renewable energy would lower the social cost of energy, especially deaths associated with fossil fuel pollution.
“With oil and gas, you have to keep drilling and mining, and pollution keeps going on forever,” says Jacobson. “Worldwide, we have more than 4 million air pollution deaths from it. Things have to change—they’re not sustainable as they are.”
He estimated that renewable energy could prevent 4.6 million premature deaths a year by 2050, simultaneously add 24.3 million jobs to the economy. It would also save more than $50 trillion dollars a year in climate- and pollution-related costs.
The first important step is (literally) electrifying: if all energy sectors (including transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture) start running on electricity instead of gas and oil, a nation’s overall energy usage goes down.
“By electrifying everything, just doing that, the power need will go down because of the efficiency of electricity,” says Jacobson. Averaged across sectors, there’s a 23 percent reduction in energy demand just by switching to electricity. And when that electricity comes directly from renewable sources like solar and wind rather than coal, the savings keep getting better. According to Jacobson, 12.6 percent of global electric energy use goes toward mining, refining, and transporting fossil fuels (and uranium for nuclear power). Electrification plus a switch to renewables leads to a 36 percent decrease in demand—with no significant change in the quality of life.
“We think a transition is possible and its beneficial in multiple ways, and there’s little downside to a transition,” says Jacobson. “Like anything, you don’t want to change—and it’s hard to change if something is working right now. But right now things are working with humongous side effects.”