The California wine industry is expected to be significantly impacted by the effects of global climate change, potentially resulting in decreasing California wine quality and availability. Rodney Strong Vineyards, owned by the Klein family, in Sonoma County, California, has taken a number of forward-thinking steps to address the challenges climate change faces them, yet there is still much work to be done to prepare this company for the long term future.
The expected climatic effects of climate change are well documented and are already being observed1,2. Some effects that are likely to very directly impact the California wine industry include those summarized in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1 – Expected Climatic Results of Climate Change and Potential Impacts on Wine Industry
|Expected Climate Result of Climate Change||Potential Impact on Wine Industry|
|Increase in atmospheric water vapor content||May affect vine growth, grape yield, and grape quality (positively or negatively)|
|Increase in precipitation and severe storms||Increased potential for damage to vineyard soils and vines, which may impact grape production and require costly repairs|
|More severe droughts3||Reduced availability of freshwater for irrigation; increased water costs; land subsidence. Social conflicts with competing demands for fresh water and land for agriculture and habitat conservation4.|
|More extreme (both hot and cold) temperatures)||May affect vine growth, grape yield, and grape quality (positively or negatively)|
|Rising sea levels/salt water intrusion||May increase salinity of groundwater or soils underlying vineyard; May affect vine growth, grape yield, and grape quality (positively or negatively)|
|Disruption of freshwater and energy supplies||Volatility in freshwater and energy availability may strain operations and increase costs. Also may result in a more challenging regulatory atmosphere for water and energy usage.|
With the wine-making process largely being the result of the land and weather, rather than a vineyard or winemaker’s skill and operations, climate change imposes a great risk on the future quality of wine in California. However, with so many variables that will be affected by climate change (including soil and groundwater salinity, ambient air temperature, and precipitation) that influence the final grapes, there is always the possibility that these changes could have a positive impact on the final product5. Additionally, improving energy and water efficiency, increasing energy independence, and supply chain evaluations can potentially decrease costs and reduce variability overall.
Rodney Strong Vineyards has already taken a number of steps6 to increase the sustainability of its operations, to include:
- Proactively being certified by the California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance7, earning the Fish Friendly Farming® (FFF) certification8, and reducing carbon footprint by purchasing carbon credits.
- Improved vineyard operations to be conscious of impact on fish (practicing “Fish Friendly Farming), soil conservation, water conservation, air quality, wildlife protection, and the overall ecosystem.
- Installation in 2003 of the first large solar panel system in the wine industry to generate renewable energy on-site9.
- Social equity efforts to create jobs and support local business.
While these voluntary steps toward increasing the sustainability are admirable, create a positive brand image, and may be getting ahead of potential future regulations imposed on the industry, additional steps will be needed to adequately prepare Rodney Strong Vineyards for the impacts climate change will have on their business. Specifically, the company needs to develop a long-term plan for their continued operations in light of the fact that, due to environmental changes impacting growing conditions, their existing location will likely not be conducive to growing their grapes with their current practices in the future. Potential mitigation measures to address this include:
- Outsourcing grape production to areas expected to be less significantly impacted by climate change
- Buying land elsewhere now to grow grapes on in the future (note that this option poses significant challenges in relying on environmental forecast predictions, as well as the long lead time required to develop soils and vines for wine grape production)
- Using more heat- and drought-tolerant types of grapes
- Planning financially (such as contingency budgeting) for more volatility in grape production and quality
Consideration of these long-term challenges and climate change mitigation solutions will be critical for sustaining this industry into the future and preserving our beloved California wine.
1Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers. May 31, 2007.
2IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
3Diffenbaugh et al., 2015. Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California. PNAS Vol. 112, No. 13 (March 31, 2015): 3931-3936.
4Hannah Lee, and Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Makihiko Ikegami, Anderson V. Shepard, M. Rebecca Shaw, Gary Tabor, Lu Zhi, Pablo A. Marquet, and Robert J. Hijmans. “Climate change, wine, and conservation”. PNAS 110, no. 17 (April 23, 2013): 6907-6912.
5Ramakrishna R. Nemani and White, M.A., Cayan, D.R., Jones, G.V., Running, S.W. Coughlan, J.C., and Peterson, D.L. 2001. “Asymmetric warming over coastal California and its impact on the premium wine industry.” Climate Research 19 (November 22, 2001): 25-34.