Presentation on theme: "REAL CLIMATE CHANGE What you should know about Global Warming Presented by Robert P. Smith, Ph.D., P.E."— Presentation transcript:
REAL CLIMATE CHANGE What you should know about Global Warming Presented by Robert P. Smith, Ph.D., P.E.
Global Warming Theory 1.Global Warming is occurring 2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil fuels 3. GW will cause extreme harm
Is Carbon Dioxide Bad? When scientists differ on an issue: Start with empirical evidence that is not in dispute
What is Empirical Evidence? Science advances using empirical evidence Empirical data based upon something that happened –Careful records from observed events –Data from repeatable experiments –Accepted theories that have withstood falsification tests –May be revised or discarded with new discoveries Non-empirical information –Unproven theories, hypotheses, hunches, etc. –Short-term correlations and cherry-picked data –Computer models that do not forecast or even hindcast –Circumstantial evidence, i.e., no cause-effect –“Desktop Speculation”
IPCC and East Anglia Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –United Nations agency –“authoritative source” on global warming –Publishes Assessment Reports every 5 yrs –IPCC “data” repeatedly debunked and discredited East Anglia Climate Research Unit –Principal source of climate data for IPCC –Source of “Climategate” scandal –Tightly linked to IPCC and other “Team” scientists in universities and U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, Lawrence Livermore Lab, Penn State University, etc.
“ Climategate ” Illegal and unethical CRU activities –20+ yrs temperature data manipulated –Data altered to show artificial warming –Surface data reliability now in doubt –Original raw data destroyed –Illegally dodged FOI requests –“Team” members controlled peer review process
1999 Conditions 20 straight years of reported warming 20 straight years of CO2 increase CO2 is a greenhouse gas Vostok ice core data The Greenhouse gas “signature” Computer models supported MMGW theory Therefore CO2 increase has caused warming
The Data Began to Change CO2 continued, but warming stopped Vostok ice cores re-analyzed –Re-analysis in 1999 and 2003 –CO2 lags temperature by 800 years –CO2 an effect of warming, not a cause –Warming oceans release CO2 and vice versa No “greenhouse gas signature” More scientific papers – contrary evidence Non-agreement of computer models with empirical data
Global Temperature Methods How is global temperature measured? Ocean bathythermographic – since 2003 Satellite MSU – since 1979 Radiosonde (weather balloons) – since 1940’s Surface thermometers – since mid-1800’s Historical records – previous 2000 yrs Proxy analysis – precedes instrumental period
Proxy Data Precedes instrumental period Geological - chemical analysis of rocks and fossils Isotopes: oxygen, hydrogen, carbon, etc. Ocean sediments and corals Marine and pollen fossil analysis Ice cores, stalagmites, boreholes A familiar example of proxy data is dating material by Carbon 14 analysis
650 Million Year Profile “Cambrian Explosion” – First fossil evidence of a massive increase in new advanced life forms – plants, fish, insects, etc. CO2 is 18 times higher than today. Atmospheric CO2 diminishes as plant life increases. Biological absorption and geologic deposition causes CO2 to drop to levels of today. (72) (54) Major temperature shifts completely unrelated to CO2 levels. Age of the Dinosaurs Today’s Avg temp (14)
Natural Climate Drivers (Climate Forcings) Solar cycles - 11, 33-year and longer cycles Earth’s planetary orientation –Milankovitch Cycles –100,000, 42,000, and 23,000 year cycles Ocean dynamics –5, 30, and 1,500-year cycles Orientation of continents –Earth in a glacial pattern for last 30 million years
A Common Sense Question If high CO2 can produce a thermal runaway, why didn’t it happen when CO2 was many hundreds of times higher than today? If it is possible, why has it never happened? (Engineers tend to ask this question.)
Global Warming Theory 2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil fuels
The Case For and Against CO2 CO2 is a greenhouse gas Greenhouse effect: –Water vapor 85-90% –Clouds 7-10% –CO2 3-5% –Methane, nitrous oxides, etc. < 1% CO2 effect strongest for first 40-100 ppm Logarithmic – additional CO2 has little effect Only acts as GHG in certain wavelengths CO2 is already doing about all it can do
IPCC “Models” vs Measured CO2 Mauna Loa station on Hawaii Recording CO2 since ____
Global Energy Budget “Earth’s Annual Global Energy Budget” Kiehl and Trenberth 1997 Troposphere Input + 342 Output – 107 Output – 235 Total -- 0
Greenhouse Gas “Signature” IPCC models predicted tropospheric warming Warming would be greatest in tropic latitudes
10 years of Measurements – No Greenhouse Gas “Signature”
CO2 in the Environment CO2 is plant food – required for all life More CO2 increases plant vitality and growth – more efficient water use More CO2 has never been shown to harm mankind or nature Cambrian Explosion occurred when CO2 was over 18 times today’s levels
Solar Cycle 24 Will be a weak solar cycle Forecast to be a major cooling shift Up to 0.7 C decline in temperature over 30 yr Equivalent to a 100 km move north Cooler temperatures = less precipitation Source: “Solar Cycle 24.” David Archibald, 2009
In Summary Climate has always changed. Current temperature is near minimum of earth’s historic range of 12-22 C. Natural forces drive climate change: abundant empirical evidence. No empirical evidence for CO2 as a significant climate driver. None. Empirical evidence should always trump speculation.
Recommendations Energy Goals –Conserve energy, improve efficiency –Avoid “green” alternatives that aren’t viable –Fight for free market energy development CO2 isn’t “pollution” it is plant food –Don’t waste money on non-problems –Leaves less money for real problems Be skeptical –Be wary of “authoritative sources” –Rely on empirical evidence Prepare for a cooler world
QUESTIONS? For: pdf copy of “Energy: Present & Future, 2 nd edition List of my references This powerpoint presentation Summaries of Lindzen and Douglass papers Email address: firstname.lastname@example.org@sbcglobal.net For detailed explanation of Climategate including timeline, names, associations, and texts of emails, visit website of Senator James Inhofe (R-OK).
Two Important Papers “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data.” Prof. emeritus Richard Lindzen and Prof. Yong-Sand Choi, Atmos. Program, MIT 15 years of ERBE data. No reduction in outgoing long-wave radiation. Therefore, no warming can be occurring from the greenhouse effect. 11 IPCC models shown to greatly over-estimate any CO2 warming. “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.” Prof. David Douglass (Univ. of Rochester) and others. 10 observational datasets: (3 surface, 4 radiosonde, 3 satellite) Compared to 22 UN IPCC models No warming of the troposphere relative to the surface. IPCC models greatly over-estimated any enhanced greenhouse warming.
CO2 Growth Response Growth response to a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide level 49% - C3 Cereals (wheat) 20% - C4 Cereals (maize) 24% - Fruits and Melons 44% - Legumes 48% - Roots and Tubers 37% - Vegetables
Natural Climate Drivers Solar Cycles Variations in solar activity 11-yr, 30-yr, and longer average cycles Total Solar Irradiance Proxy for electromagnetic activity Reduces cosmic ray flux Reduces cloud formation Increases solar radiation received Weak solar cycles cause opposite effect
Natural Climate Drivers Earth’s Planetary and Celestial Orientation Milankovich Cycles – Long Term Orbital Eccentricity –Earth’s elliptical orbit - 100,000 year cycle Obliquity - Tilt on its axis –22.1 to 24.5 degree tilt - 41,000 year cycle Precession –Wobble on its spin axis - 23,000 year cycle Celestial - Solar system passes through Milky Way spiral arms every 135 million years
Natural Climate Drivers Ocean Dynamics Ocean is enormous thermal sink Top layer (300m) most active Numerous area patterns –Thermohaline Circulation – “Great Conveyor” –Pacific Decadal Oscillation – 30 years –El Nino-Southern Oscillation – 2-5 years –North Atlantic Oscillation – year-to-year Ocean oscillations both long and short-term climate drivers
Satellite Method Since 1979 11 temperature satellites Twice daily orbiting Measures microwave energy in troposphere Troposphere: atmosphere to ~30,000 ft Microwave energy proportional to temperature Worldwide coverage every day Land, oceans, mountains, deserts, jungles
Satellite Data Reliability Orbit earth twice daily Measures entire troposphere – top 30,000 ft Monitors oceans, mountains, deserts, etc. No “heat island” temperature distortion Can be calibrated/verified by radiosonde Consistent, reliable data reporting Highest quality temperature data since 1979
Surface Thermometers Since mid-1800’s Began as “Central England” record Gradually expanded Now ~5000 stations on land Some data taken at sea Subject to multiple sources of error Hadley CRU, NCDC (NOAA), and GISS (NASA) All utilize surface data in different ways IPCC uses data from Hadley CRU
Surface Temperature Reliability Predominantly land-based Land only 30% of earth’s surface Inaccessible locations a problem – deserts, mountains, jungles, polar, etc. “Heat Island” effect distorts data Human reporting inconsistent 89% of NCDC stations faulty Data cannot be calibrated/verified
Faulty Surface Monitoring Stations All 1,221 U.S. temperature stations inspected by volunteers 89% were faulty
Radiosonde Method Since 1958 “Weather balloon” method Balloon lifts radio-altimeter Temperature at different altitudes Can be used to verify satellite data
Historical Records of events Examples –Romans grew wine grapes in Britain? –Vikings colonize southern Greenland During Medieval Warm Period ~1000 AD Farmed, raised cattle for 200 years –Viking Greenland colony abandoned –Winter fairs on frozen River Thames –Ice breakup records in northern Europe
Energy Findings LIQUID FUELS Era of cheap oil is over, however: U.S. has abundant coal Natural gas reserves are rising Liquid fuel sources –Coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids –Shale oil –100’s of years supply –Cost competitive with today’s oil No current substitute for fossil fuels
Energy Findings ELECTRICITY Nuclear power –Reliable and cost competitive –No air pollution emissions –Spent fuel can be reprocessed –1000’s of years supply Wind and Solar –Unreliable, both require backup –Requires enormous space –May never be cheaper than nuclear