On May 30th, the U.S. government agency The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced provisional crude oil production figures for March 2013. Key points:
- March crude oil production 220.8 million barrels, equivalent to 7.1 million barrels per day
- Change over March 2012 on a barrel-per-day basis: +13.0% y/y
- March total crude oil plus natural gas liquids 297.6 million barrels, equivalent to 9.6 bpd
As can be seen from the chart below (click for larger image, link to original data here), the fracking of tight oil formations in the U.S. has made a significant impact on U.S. crude production. The critical question is whether the current large year-on-year percentage growth rates in oil production can be sustained (click for larger image). The year-on-year increase in production peaked in October 2013 at 18.2% (compared with 13.0% for March 2013).
Given crude oil is a globally traded commodity, U.S. production numbers need to be placed in the context of world supply and demand. In its latest Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recorded global ‘all liquids’ production as averaging 90.9 million bpd in Q1 2013, flat over the same period the previous year.
For April 2013, global supply was 91.3 million bpd , up slightly over the figure of 90.8 million bpd in March 2013. The May 2013 Oil Market Report can be found here.
Full quarterly IEA world supply-and-demand figures, including Q3 2013 estimates, can be found here.