World population: What happens if we reach over 10 billion people?
The world’s population is heading for 10.9BN by the end of the century - but what does that mean for us?
It’s a city sinking faster than anywhere else in the world, overcrowded and full of pollution.
Now plans to move Jakarta, a city with a population of 10 million built on a marsh below sea level, are being accelerated over fears the capital could disappear.
Water has to be hauled in each day by motorcycle and trucks, delivered by hand to residents in villages called kampungs so they can buy it to drink and do laundry.
The situation has become so dire, President Joko Widodo has confirmed plans to move Jakarta to Borneo.
“The location can be in Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, or South Kalimantan,” Mr Widodo tweeted.
“All aspects are being studied in depth so that the decision will be correct in our future vision — (a) great vision for the nation and state for the next 10, 50, 100 years.”
The traffic-choked, low-lying capital is sinking because of overextraction of groundwater and is prone to flooding, with several sea walls and flood mitigation built along the coast to protect it.
The government announced its bold plans to relocate Jakarta to Borneo in April, sparking fears from opponents it will only become another “disaster” like the capital.
Planning Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said the government wouldn’t need to build new airports and seaports but rather expand existing locations.
Exact logistical details on just how millions of people will be transported to an entirely new island are yet to be released.
President Widodo is expected to annouce his choice of location any day now.
University of Sydney Professor Adrian Vickers, an Indonesian cultural history expert, points out that history is actually repeating itself.
In the 1960s, a returning communist leader advocated the same proposal to Indonesia’s president, Sukarno.
With Soviet funding, Sukarno started work on the new city of Palangkaraya but he never got further than a highway and a roundabout.
“Will this city on the equator be the new capital, Indonesia’s Brasilia or Canberra, or perhaps Naypyidaw?” he said.
“There are practical reasons for and against such a move. Indonesia’s civil service and parliament would probably be resistant, as this would separate the capital from the business centre.
“Nevertheless, Jakarta has some of the worst traffic jams and air quality in the world, so such a solution makes sense.”
Dr Petr Matous, from the university’s engineering department, warned setting up a new capital would not solve Jakarta’s environmental problems and would replicate them if things were not done differently.
“A large proportion of Jakarta’s residents lack access to water, not because of insufficient environmental resources, but because they live in informal settlements known as ‘kampungs’,” he said.
“Most kampungs do not have legal access to water, which means residents can only obtain water through informal vendors whose practices often damage the water network, causing large losses and environmental degradation.
“Many people are forced to rely on deeper and deeper illegal water wells that further contribute to the depletion of water resources and the sinking of the city.
“Because of Jakarta’s largely concrete and asphalt infrastructure, the underlying aquifer does not get replenished easily.”
Dr Matous said another worry was the likely environmental impact on Borneo, particularly as Indonesia’s population booms.
“Agricultural productivity and excessive deforestation are two major issues in Indonesia, which both contribute to people leaving their unproductive farms to live in the cities,” he said.
“Without sufficient environmental protections in place, the rapid development of a new urban area in Borneo could be very risky.”
The city is tipped to face serious water shortages by 2040 and even in the past fortnight has faced a blackout and an earthquake.
Borneo remains geologically stable and relatively untouched.
Dr Aaron Opdyke, a humanitarian engineer whose research has focused on post-disaster resettlement programs in South East Asia, said the government’s argument for the move centred on finding a location that was free from the threat of earthquakes and floods.
But he warned this was not the best solution.
“In 2018, Indonesia accounted for nearly half of the global deaths from disasters,” he said.
“Too often though, governments jump to relocate settlements expecting that they can cut disaster losses by just reducing exposure to hazards.
“We see repeatedly that disasters are often distorted by policy makers for political gain, without truly understanding the drivers of disaster risk.
“Vulnerabilities of our infrastructure, economies and social systems often have a much larger role to play in disaster risk creation — factors that are rarely solved by starting anew.
“The scale of the problems facing Jakarta are no doubt pressing, but rather than embracing the seductive simplicity of starting with a blank canvas, we need to recognise the complexities that don’t vanish.
“While the allure of better planning from a clean slate might be tempting to address current stresses, the reality might look very different.”
While plan is expected to cost $44 billion, Mr Brodjonegoro said earlier this year the annual economic loss due to traffic congestion in Jakarta was some $10 billion.
He said construction would begin in 2021, with the first residents expected to move to the site in 2024.
He said international embassies would also be expected to relocate.
Australia’s $415 million embassy complex, the largest ever built by the federal government, was only opened in 2016.