Making Modernity Work
The Reconciliation of Capitalism and Democracy
Lenin and Mussolini
Making the Collective Man in Soviet Russia
The Philosophic Basis of Fascism
Radical Forces in Germany
Hitler: Phenomenon and Portent
The First Phase
Political Ideas in the Twentieth Century
The Position and Prospects of Communism
Nationalism and Economic Life
The Reconstruction of Liberalism
The Economic Tasks of the Postwar World
Freedom and Control
Limits of Economic Planning
The Split Between Asian and Western Socialism
The Myth of Post-Cold War Chaos
The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers
How Development Leads to Democracy
What We Know About Modernization
The Post-Washington Consensus
Development After the Crisis
The Future of History
Can Liberal Democracy Survive the Decline of the Middle Class?
The Democratic Malaise
Globalization and the Threat to the West
The Strange Triumph of Liberal Democracy
Europe’s Ideological Contest
In the last several years, a democratic boom has given way to a democratic recession. Between 1985 and 1995, scores of countries made the transition to democracy, bringing widespread euphoria about democracy's future. But more recently, democracy has retreated in Bangladesh, Nigeria, the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and Venezuela, and the Bush administration's attempts to establish democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq seem to have left both countries in chaos. These developments, along with the growing power of China and Russia, have led many observers to argue that democracy has reached its high-water mark and is no longer on the rise
That conclusion is mistaken. The underlying conditions of societies around the world point to a more complicated reality. The bad news is that it is unrealistic to assume that democratic institutions can be set up easily, almost anywhere, at any time. Although the outlook is never hopeless, democracy is most likely to emerge and survive when certain social and cultural conditions are in place. The Bush administration ignored this reality when it attempted to implant democracy in Iraq without first establishing internal security and overlooked cultural conditions that endangered the effort.
The good news, however, is that the conditions conducive to democracy can and do emerge -- and the process of "modernization," according to abundant empirical evidence, advances them. Modernization is a syndrome of social changes linked to industrialization. Once set in motion, it tends to penetrate all aspects of life, bringing occupational specialization, urbanization, rising educational levels, rising life expectancy, and rapid economic growth. These create a self-reinforcing process that transforms social life and political institutions, bringing rising mass participation in politics and -- in the long run -- making the establishment of democratic political institutions increasingly likely. Today, we have a clearer idea than ever before of why and how this process of democratization happens.
The long-term trend toward democracy has always come in surges and declines. At the start of the twentieth century, only a handful of democracies existed, and even
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