Volcanoes are pretty unpredictable, which isn't good for the people living near them. It's often tough to say whether an eruption is imminent, and forecasting the time of an eruption is currently impossible. But it might be possible given enough data on a particular volcano, which is why GE worked with a team of engineers and scientists, led by Sam Cossman of Qwake, on an expedition to the Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua.
Masaya is a caldera volcano—meaning it's mostly just a crater in the ground—a few miles outside Managua, the capital of Nicaragua. Managua has more than a million residents, which makes understanding this volcano all the more important. The GE team spent six weeks around the volcano, studying and recording as much data as they could get. The team was particularly interested in the active lava lake, which is as scientifically important as it is dangerous. Masaya is one of the few volcanoes in the world with an active lava lake, and the thousand-degree temperatures and fragile earth make studying it challenging.
To get close enough to place their equipment, the team used drones and built a system of zip lines hundreds of feet tall. Using special heat-resistant suits, the scientists placed sensors inside the lake rim and around the entire volcano. In total, the team placed ten sensors, which recorded temperatures, air pressures, gas emissions, and humidity.
With these sensors in place, the team was able to closely study a rare event: the opening of a volcanic vent. Their sensors recorded swings in temperature, humidity, carbon dioxide levels, and more. Over the span of 11 days, the sensors dutifully recorded those changes until the vent closed again.
Using machine-learning algorithms to study that data, the team believes that they can predict future volcanic activity by looking for similar changes in temperature, CO2 levels, and humidity. While they have yet to test their hypothesis, if they're correct it could have a huge impact on over a million people living near Masaya.
And this goes well beyond one volcano. There are more than a thousand active volcanoes on the planet, with around 800 million people living in their shadows. GE's approach—collecting data and using artificial intelligence to analyze it—could turn an unpredictable natural disaster into a foreseeable weather phenomenon. With enough data and enough time, we might never need to fear volcanoes again.