My thanks to Nicola Scafetta for pointing out this page of the most downloaded articles at science publishing house Elsevier’s title ‘Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. Our Solar-Planetary Theory is gaining traction. It asserts that the Sun is a more significant climate driver than human emitted trace gases and aerosols and that the motion of the planets and other solar system phenomena are linked to solar activity levels and climate change, also via effects on Earth’s geomagnetic field, magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Over half of the papers listed are connected with these areas of interest. Notable by their absence are the words ‘carbon dioxide’ and papers strongly pushing the AGW meme. The great climate paradigm shift is underway at the cutting edge of science demonstrating a marked shift from the situation a few years ago, when the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory ruled the roost, and the journal Nature didn’t publish a single solar paper for five years between 2005-2010.
At number one we have:
Jan-Erik Solheim | Kjell Stordahl | Ole Humlum
Discussed at WUWT here.
Abstract: Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.
At number three:
3. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models
Discussed at WUWT here
Shortened Abstract: We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn.
At number four:
4. Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation
At number five:
5. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
Shortened Abstract: The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies.
At number six
Available online 21 March 2012
Abstract: The strong sensitivity of the Earth’s radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth’s T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.
At number nine:
9. The content and composition of meteoric smoke in mesospheric ice particles from SOFIE observations
Mark E. Hervig | Lance E. Deaver | Charles G. Bardeen | James M. Russell III | Scott M. Bailey | Larry L. Gordley
Abstract: This work provides the first observational evidence that ice particles comprising polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) contain small amounts of meteoric smoke (0.01–3% by volume), using measurements from the Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE). PMC observations at wavelengths from the ultraviolet through the infrared are inconsistent with pure ice, but can be explained in terms of the extinction simulated for a mixture of ice and meteoric smoke. Simulations of ice–smoke mixtures considered 25 different smoke compositions. The PMC observations were consistent with smoke composed of carbon (C), wüstite (FeO), or magnesiowüstite (MgxFe1−xO, x=0.1–0.6), and inconsistent with the other compositions. A method was established for simultaneously retrieving PMC particle size and the volume fraction of smoke in ice using SOFIE observations at multiple wavelengths. Compared to assuming pure ice, SOFIE retrievals considering ice–smoke mixtures yield smaller ice radii (24%) and higher concentrations (137%).
At number 10:
Shortened Abstract: This paper reviews ways in which the magnetosphere manifests coherent behavior on a global scale. Because the magnetosphere is a magnetic object, and is thus deformable under the constraint of total magnetic flux conservation, it can and does exhibit coordinated changes across its whole volume.
12. Analysis of solar EUV and X-ray flux enhancements during intense solar flare events and the concomitant response of equatorial and low latitude upper atmosphere
G. Manju | K.G. Simi | S.R. Prabhakaran Nayar
Abstract: We investigate the X ray and UV flux changes during flare events and the corresponding ionospheric response. The study reveals that UV flux enhancement depends on both flare intensity and position on solar disk while X-ray flux enhancement depends only on the former. The study brings out a new result that the E region response to flares directly relates to the X-ray flux enhancement and that it does not exhibit limb effect. Further, the F region response shows limb effect indicating the UV flux control on the same and it also shows seasonal variability due to solar zenith angle variability.
M.J Rycroft | S Israelsson | C Price
Abstract: The study of the global atmospheric electric circuit has advanced dramatically in the past 50 years. Large advances have been made in the areas of lightning and thunderstorm research, as related to the global circuit. We now have satellites looking down on the Earth continuously, supplying information on the temporal and spatial variability of lightning and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are electric current generators, which drive electric currents up through the conducting atmosphere. They maintain the ionosphere at a potential of ∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface. The global electric circuit is completed by currents ∼2pA/m2 flowing through the fair weather atmosphere, remote from thunderstorms, and by transient currents due to negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharges. The time constant of the circuit, ∼>2min, demonstrates that thunderstorms must occur continually to maintain the fair weather electric field. New discoveries have been made in the field of sprites, elves and blue jets, which may have a direct impact on the global circuit. Our knowledge of the global electric circuit modulated by solar effects has improved. Changes to the global circuit are associated with changes of conductivity linked with the time-varying presence of energetic charged particles, and the solar wind may influence the global electric circuit by inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere. We now have a better understanding of how the conductivity of the atmosphere is influenced by aerosols, and how this impacts our measurements of the fair-weather global circuit. The global atmospheric electric circuit is also beginning to be recognised by some climate researchers as a useful tool with which to study and monitor the Earth’s changing climate.
18. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature
Abstract: Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively, and in several planetary and solar records. We argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely in addition to a Soli-Lunar tidal effect, there exists a planetary modulation of the heliosphere, of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, has the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include a historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We show that a harmonic constituent model based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced from the natural gravitational oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the decadal and multidecadal temperature oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the temperature data before 1950, and vice versa. The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60–70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. Moreover, the climate may stay approximately stable during the next decades because the 60-year cycle has entered in its cooling phase.
R.K. Manchanda | P.R. Sinha | S. Sreenivasan | D.B. Trivedi | B.V.N. Kapardhi | B. Suneel Kumar | P.R. Kumar | U. Satyaprakash | V.N. Rao
Abstract: Sudden blockage of the solar radiation during the eclipse leads to both prompt and delayed effects on both the stratospheric and the tropospheric ozone. In this paper we present the in-situ measurements of vertical distribution of ozone made by ozonesondes during the annular solar eclipse of January 15, 2010 from Thiruvananthapuram (8.53°N, 76.87°E). Concurrent measurement of various atmospheric parameters, columnar ozone and UV radiation were also made from ground. The column ozone showed a large decrease matching well with the maximum phase of the eclipse. A systematic decrease in the ozone concentration observed in the stratosphere. A formation of double mixed layer inversion was also observed at ∼2km on the eclipse day. The eclipse was manifested from the space and captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellites.
A.A. Gusev | I.M. Martin
Abstract: An assumption of the existence of natural climatic oscillations driven by solar activity enables an explanation of phase differences between variations in solar activity and rainfall level in Fortaleza, Brazil. Decadal and interdecadal variations in rainfall level can be reproduced using a forced oscillation equation with a driving force term that describes the variation in the sunspot number and with the assumption of the existence of 31.7-year interdecadal and 12.96-year decadal natural climatic oscillations. This equation satisfactorily reproduces the periodicity with a length of approximately 22yr in the interdecadal rainfall variation before and up to the middle of the past century as well as the subsequent phase inversion, period and amplitude increase in the variation that followed the corresponding increases in the interdecadal sunspot number variation. The equation accurately reproduces the irregular phase shifts between decadal variations in rainfall level and in sunspot number over the entire 160yr of recorded observations.
Mary K. Hudson | Brian T. Kress | Hans-R. Mueller | Jordan A. Zastrow | J. Bernard Blake
Shortened Abstract: Discovery of the Van Allen radiation belts by instrumentation flown on Explorer 1 in 1958 was the first major discovery of the Space Age. A view of the belts as distinct inner and outer zones of energetic particles with different sources was modified by observations made during the Cycle 22 maximum in solar activity in 1989–1991, the first approaching the activity level of the International Geophysical Year of 1957–1958. The dynamic variability of outer zone electrons was measured by the NASA–Air Force Combined Radiation Release and Effects Satellite launched in July 1990. This variability is caused by distinct types of heliospheric structure which vary with the solar cycle.