How can we recognize the truth? There are a few simple rules.
The truth ought to be logically consistent. It should not contradict itself. It ought to be consistent with what else we know. We know a great many things -- a tiny fraction, to be sure. But nevertheless some things we know with quite high reliability.
We should also pay attention to how badly we want to believe a given contention. The more badly we want to believe it, the more skeptical we have to be.
From The Varieties of Scientific Experience