A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters attempts to explain how Trenberth's missing heat got lost in the oceans by claiming that the oceans have somehow become more efficient at absorbing heat over the past decade. The authors note that "the rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature has apparently slowed during the last decade" [to approximately zero], none of the "state-of-the-art" climate models predicted this "hiatus," and that "the models tend to overestimate the [surface air temperature] trend."
Dr. Roy Spencer on why the Trenberth hypothesis about "missing heat" is incorrect
Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus
Masahiro Watanabe et al
Abstract: The rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature (SATg) has apparently slowed during the last decade [to approximately zero]. We investigated the extent to which state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multi-model ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SATg linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11-member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal [natural] origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (κ), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SATg [surface air temperature] trend. The weakening of κ commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.