Four seconds before the La Habra earthquake hit, an alarm few Californians have heard went off in the home of Caltech earthquake program manager Margaret Vinci.
The warning gave Vinci and Sophie, her Pekingese-spaniel mix, just enough time to take cover.
But despite the success of the pilot system that sent Vinci her 4-second warning, the deployment of an early warning system along the West Coast is mired in a lack of funding.
Such a system, scientists say, could help prevent damage or injury, and in a big quake might save countless lives.
A few seconds’ warning might not sound like much. But it’s enough time to slow trains, power down manufacturing plants or pause during delicate surgery.
It’s also enough time to “drop, cover and hold on,” or at least to plan your next move before the earthquake wave hits.
“I grabbed (the dog) and actually went under the dining room table,” Vinci said. A moment later, she felt the jolt in her Pasadena home from the magnitude 5.1 earthquake that struck near La Habra on March 28.
But as a beta tester, Vinci is the exception in California.
Scientists say some $80 million is needed to expand the earthquake early warning system to the entire West Coast and run it for five years. Tests show it could provide advance notice anywhere from a few seconds to a full minute before a quake strikes.
FUNDING IN FLUX
Last week, 26 Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives urged approval of the $16.1 million per year that is needed to deploy the system across the West Coast.
But whether a majority in Congress would support such funding remains uncertain.
“While I certainly would not support a new expenditure of scientific research funds, I may well be able to support redirection of funds that are already being spent in areas that should have less priority,” said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa.
The congressman said he would be more interested in systems that provide warning days in advance. Some scientists, including a team at Chapman University, are working on such ideas, using satellite readings to try to detect temperature changes or gaseous emissions that might signal a pending quake.
But such efforts are in their early stages, and so far have not resulted in a usable warning system.
Rohrabacher said he recently met with Lisa Grant Ludwig, a UC Irvine seismologist and incoming president of the Seismological Society of America, who is part of a group of scientists lobbying Congress to fund the early warning system.
The meeting, as it happened, took place the same week as the La Habra quake; Grant Ludwig felt the shaking after flying back to California from Washington and checking into a hotel.
After meeting with Grant Ludwig, Rohrabacher said he would try to arrange for a field hearing for the House science committee this fall, perhaps in Irvine.
SOME SENSORS IN PLACE
The early warning system coordinates data from earthquake sensors already spread across the state. They estimate the quake’s location and magnitude – and can send out an automated warning to people who might be affected.
How much warning depends on how far you are from the epicenter of the quake, and how quickly waves from the quake travel through fault systems.
For modest quakes, like the shaker in La Habra and its many aftershocks, the warning might simply help prevent panicky reactions or minor injuries.
For a major quake, it could save lives.
“We know darn well that if we had an important quake – sorry to say, one that killed people – this would be done instantaneously,” said Tom Heaton, a geophysicist at Caltech who is leading the earthquake early warning demonstration project. “People would say, ‘Do it.’
“The big question is whether we can get that decision short of the tragedy of a damaging or fatal earthquake.”
In September, Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law a bill that requires the state Office of Emergency Services to develop an early warning system – but provides no funding.
The law gives Emergency Services until Jan. 1, 2016, to identify funding sources.
Until funding for a bigger system is found, only the demonstration system is up and running, supported by a four-year, $6 million grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The funding is shared by UC Berkeley, Caltech and the University of Washington.
At present, the warnings from the system go out only to the scientists involved, some first responders such as fire departments, and companies such as railway operators.
The warnings pop up on their computer screens, though if funding is found for a larger system, they might one day appear on smartphones.
“In two years, the Moore Foundation money is going to be gone,” Heaton said. “As developers, we’re hoping we’ve shown that the system has been demonstrated well enough that people will say, ‘Of course we’ll build that.’ But there’s no guarantee at the moment. There are lots of promising signs, but so far no specific plan.”
To make the system work for the entire West Coast, the existing network of about 400 earthquake sensors in California would have to be expanded and in some cases upgraded. Sensors in Oregon and Washington also would have to be expanded.
Japan is the “world leader” in earthquake early warning, Heaton said, with a system that has been in place since 2007.
The system sent out warnings ahead of the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku quake and resulting tsunami in 2011 that swamped the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant.
And while many details of how well it worked have not been released, manufacturing companies were able to power down, avoiding damage, and trains shut down to prevent derailment and save lives, Vinci said.
Mexico also has an early warning system; China, which also has faced large, destructive quakes, is working to build its own version.
“It’s almost guaranteed: as soon as you have a big earthquake that kills a bunch of people, it’s a no-brainer,” Heaton said. “They try to build these systems.”
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