Despite the easily observed signs of aging usually seen about halfway through a first term, a stint in the Oval Office appears to be a guarantee of long life, according to a research letter published in the Dec. 7 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The notion that the constant stress and public scrutiny of being U.S. president accelerates the aging process -- Pres. Obama, for example, may not yet have "snow on the roof," but there is no mistaking the sprinkling of gray now visible -- does not hold up to scrutiny, according to Jay Olshansky, PhD, of the University of Illinois at Chicago.
One theory about presidential aging is that each year in office accelerates aging by two years.
Olshansky said his analysis said that the facts suggest that all living presidents have either exceeded or are likely to exceed the average life span of U.S. men.
Olshansky examined ages of inauguration and death of every U.S. president who died of natural causes (or current age if the former president is still alive). Based on how long the president was in office, Olshansky used the accelerated aging theory to estimate the presidents' projected lifespan and compared those with the life expectancies of run-of-the-mill men from 1789 to present day.
He found no evidence that U.S. presidents die any sooner than other U.S. men. In fact, 23 of the 34 presidents who died of natural causes lived longer than the average lifespan of men during their time, with a mean age of death of 78 years. If they had aged at double the speed of normal men, the average age of death for those 23 presidents would have been 67.
The mean life span for all men during the entire study period was 73.3 years, and the mean lifespan for the 34 dead presidents (including those who died earlier than would be expected) was 73 years. If presidents aged at double the speed of normal men, the average age of death would have been 68.1 years.
All of the presidents who are still living are likely to exceed the estimated life span of U.S. men, Olshansky wrote.
Using his formula, Olshansky pegged Obama's age of death to likely be around 78 or 79; George W. Bush's and Bill Clinton at 83; George H.W. Bush at 93, and Jimmy Carter at 92.
Olshansky ventured his guess for why presidents are destined for long lives: College education, wealth, and access to the best medical care of the time. If education and socioeconomic status influence health and mortality today, they played an even greater role in bygone eras, he said.
So why do presidents -- especially those in recent years in the era of constant TV appearances and photos -- appear to age faster than the average male? That's just a normal process of getting older, Olshansky said.
"The graying of hair and wrinkling of skin seen in presidents while in office are normal elements of human aging; they occur for all men during this phase of life and can be accelerated by behavioral risk factors such as smoking and stress," he wrote. "Whether these outward changes occur faster for presidents relative to other men of the same age is unknown."
Even if presidents have saggier skin, more gray hair, or less hair altogether when they leave office, it doesn't mean that they took years off their live by assuming the nation's top elected office, he concluded.
Olshansky reported no financial conflicts of interest and wasn't compensated for his letter in JAMA.