The initial rhetoric surrounding Ethiopia’s Grand Millennium Dam seems to have subsided, but the plans to proceed with Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant are still very much in place. Although it is yet unclear how Ethiopia will raise funds for the project it can scarcely afford, combined with four other dams Ethiopia hopes to develop in concert with the Blue Nile’s 5,000 MW plant slated for the Benishangul-Gumuz region, the country hopes to produce a total of 15,000 MW of hydroelectric power by 2015. But in his zealous pursuit to reclaim the powerful Nile waters from Egypt and Sudan and generate economic autonomy for his people, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is oblivious to one very important factor that could derail his ambitions: climate change.
What Environmental Impact Assessment?
In 2009, Ethiopia submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment for another controversial dam, Gibe III. It was so flawed that the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the Euro Investment Bank all rescinded their support of this project according to a National Geographic report.
For the Grand Millennium Dam project, no environmental impact assessment has been vetted and there doesn’t appear to be any indication that one will transpire.
Just like Gibe III?
The Gibe III project will reduce water levels and increase salinity at Lake Turkana, which, according to Claudia Carr from the the University of California, Berkeley, is already close to being unfit for cattle or human consumption. The dam is likely to push the lake over the edge, jeopardizing the lives of 500,000 people already on the brink of starvation. The project also puts certain wildlife at risk.
These are compelling reasons to suspect that the Grand Millenium Dam, which originates at Lake Tana and will create an artificial lake that will hold 63 billion cubic meters of water, will have similar consequences if no effort is made to mitigate its environmental impact.
When the rains don’t come
Climate change presents an even more urgent reason to investigate the long-term feasibility of this project. Climatologist Chris Funk of the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) and his colleagues estimate that climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycles in the wet Ethiopian highlands, reducing rainfall by 20%.
Lori Pottinger from International Rivers, which has been monitoring many of Ethiopia’s 20 dam projects, says that no attention is being given to the possible impact of climate change on the country’s hydroelectric future.
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image via RealityZone