THE results are in. The final emissions figures from the countries that participated in the Kyoto Protocol have now been assessed – but whether it was a success depends on how you interpret them.
Under the 1997 climate treaty, 38 developed countries agreed to reduce their mean annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012 to 5 per cent below 1990 levels. While the US and Canada dropped out, the figures show that overall, the remaining 36 nations managed to meet these reductions (Climate Policy, doi.org/bjz4).
In large part this was because the emissions of former Soviet states had plummeted before the deal was even signed.
Ten countries achieved their targets partly thanks to buying carbon credits rather than entirely through true reductions. The financial crisis and the shifting of industrial activities to nations such as China also helped.
“These numbers can be interpreted one way or another,” says study author Igor Shishlov of the Institute for Climate Economics in Paris. But, he says, the protocol did help lay the foundations for the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
This article appeared in print under the headline “Kyoto crunching”