Madagascar's deep south remains at risk of famine
In mid‑October Madagascar's Ministry of Water issued a tender call for construction of the first phase of a 69‑km pipeline to take water from the Efaho river to Androy, a region that is badly affected by drought.
Much of Madagascar's south has now received no rainfall for several years, and many villages that previously supported themselves through agriculture are in effect destitute. This has caused massive food insecurity and the UN Office for the Co‑ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reports that 1.1m people in the region are now food insecure, almost double the figure that was recorded in September 2020. The UNOCHA announced in late September that it was seeking an extra US$139.6m in aid for southern Madagascar (to last until May 2022), in addition to the US$91.1m that donors have provided so far in 2021. Substantial emergency relief efforts are under way; special nutritional food is being distributed to children and many households receive monthly cash transfers equal to €22 (US$26) from the World Food Programme. Fresh rainfall in a few areas has meanwhile allowed crops to be planted.
However, the underlying long‑term challenge remains considerable. International agencies and the government attribute increasingly low and erratic rainfall patterns to global climate change. However, the problem has been compounded by local factors, notably deforestation, which leaves the landscape open to wind erosion and the advance of sand dunes (and deprives the atmosphere of the dampening evaporation of moisture from trees). Even if progress is made in tackling global climate change, southern Madagascar will evidently continue to suffer its effects for the foreseeable future and remain heavily reliant on humanitarian emergency support for years to come.
Andry Rajoelina, Madagascar's president, will be unable to resolve the crisis over 2022‑23, but has given fresh priority to the south, which has generally been neglected by Malagasy elites. In June he addressed a conference on the region's development in Taolagnaro, a south-eastern city. He returned in late September to visit development projects, including a new factory set up by a French company to produce high-nutrition snacks for children. During a recent visit to the US he also met the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, to ensure that some of the US$332m in recently disbursed IMF support was allocated to the south.
Impact on the forecast
We forecast that Madagascar's deep south will continue to experience high levels of food insecurity in 2022‑23, weighing on the political stability and growth outlook.