The Savé Valley Conservancy (SVC) is a collaboratively-managed wildlife area in the south east of Zimbabwe. It was created in 1991 from 18 former cattle ranches. On its creation a double 350km perimeter game fence was constructed, 14 species reintroduced and a security system of ranch-based anti-poaching teams was established to control illegal hunting. This led to the SVC becoming home to sizeable populations of several species of global conservation significance in the 1990s; major economic activities in the SVC included trophy hunting and ecotourism.
In 2000 the Zimbabwe government’s land reform programme meant that white-owned farms in the area were settled by subsistence farming communities. The land reform programme contributed directly to a national recession leading to food shortages and rural communities depending more on natural resources for survival. The result was that illegal hunting for wild meat increased substantially leading to severe declines in populations of globally threatened species and the economic and ecological viability of the SVC threatened.
Donor funded initiatives that start to address these issues have included an innovative game meat production scheme that enables the SVC to actively contribute towards improved food security and livelihood conditions in communities bordering the Conservancy and strategies for tracking law enforcement effort alongside data on illegal offtake. These and other initiatives generate data on livelihoods, food security and ecological outcomes.
For the conservancy, surrounding community and donors it is important to assess the effectiveness of these and future initiatives. Because they operate within the context of a complex socio-ecological system they cannot be assessed individually and so an ecosystems-based research approach to understand the interactions between the surrounding community and the SVC is required.
A workshop of key stakeholders was held in May 2010 to identify various drivers and factors that contribute to illegal killing of wildlife and livelihood security in and around the SVC. Some 19 factors were initially identified and modeled into a draft concept map illustrating their causal relationships. Potential data sources were identified and methodological approaches to integrate this information assessed for use in a long-term monitoring system.
As a result a strategy for an information system was developed. The aim of this information system is that it will provide stakeholders with a set of practical tools to enable them to (a) understand the complex inter-relationships between livelihoods, food security and ecology (b) be able to ask questions about what will happen if certain changes are made or what is required to reach particular desirable outcomes (c) monitor how these outcomes change over time (d) identify areas where more data is required to better manage and address issues of concern.
I was invited as a statistical co-lead of the workshop. I jointly developed the strategy for the information system and the methodological approach to be taken; this includes the use of Bayesian Belief Networks.