Think global warming means easier winters for the world? This new study from a team of researchers at Columbia University may shock you.
It makes sense that warmer temperatures in the winter would lead to fewer deaths from exposure to the cold, but new research suggests that this may not be the case at all. According to a report from UPI, scientists from Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health analyzed temperature and mortality data to reach their puzzling conclusion.
Looking at data from 39 cities in the US and France, the research team was able to determine that a warmer overall climate has an a limited, if any, correlation to mortalities caused by exposure to winter weather. Lead author Professor Patrick Kinney explains, “Some have claimed that warmer winters due to climate change will lead to big reductions in winter deaths. Our work suggests that this is unlikely to be the case.”
Kinney, who is the director of Columbia’s Climate and Health Program, discovered instead that cities experiencing warm winters had mortality rates similar to those with colder winters. He also found that there was little connection between certain temperature levels and the number of deaths.
The main reason warm winters don’t lower the number of fatalities in the winter is the result of a number of different factors. For starters, the cities in the study varied widely in demography, urban design, and cultural background, which all to a certain degree determine how likely someone is to be exposed to harsh winter elements.
Many deaths occur in the winter as it is, and the difference of a few degrees as a result of climate change is not enough to mitigate the risk for somebody who is exposed to the elements for too long. Exposure to winter weather can also lead to an increased risk of developing the flu and other respiratory infections, which have shown no sign of decreasing in the face of global warming.
The study was published last week in the journal IOP Science.