Coastal and marine environments are also a key concern in Europe. In
a world of Markets First, tourism exercises an ever-increasing
pressure on coastal zones throughout the region, leading to an increase
of local environmental problems such as salinization. In addition, second
homes exercise a considerable footprint in some areas such as the Baltic.
Specifically in Eastern Europe, coastal zones are increasingly left to
local authorities to manage, with somewhat unpredictable outcomes.
Under Policy First conditions, governments acquire some coastal
zones in Western Europe for full protection status. In Eastern Europe,
basic legislation regarding coastal zone protection is put in place and
zoning plans are revitalized. In a Security First situation, coastal
zones in Western Europe see a continuation of industrial development,
tourism development, airport construction and other infrastructure. In
Central Europe, coastal zones remain by and large as they were in 2002.
In Eastern Europe, coastal zones may be remilitarized, restricting access,
but also used for new port development. On balance, pressures remain at
approximately the same level as in 2002. In Sustainability First,
integrated coastal zone management schemes based on voluntary partnerships
and participatory arrangements, significantly improve coastal environments.
|Imagine ... a major food scare in Europe
A major food scare breaks out in Europe in the middle of the 2010s,
reminiscent in some respects of the Spanish cooking oil disaster
in the 1980s or the BSE crisis in the 1990s. But this crisis is
on a much larger scale and so is its psychological impact. It erupts
with simultaneous outbreaks of death and illness among young children
in various parts of Western and Central Europe. With casualties
growing, the cause remains elusive for at least a year. Speculation
is widespread about a link with genetically modified organisms or
biotransplants, but there is no conclusive evidence. Eventually,
the cause is found to be a hitherto uncommon mycotoxin. It turns
out that a fungus in many cereals, the emergence and spread of which
appears related to the changing climate, produces this toxin. Unfortunately,
the news does little to diminish the problem for a culture that
relies on bread as a staple food.
In the case of ...
- Consumer distrust rises in Western and Central Europe. This
leads to agricultural demise in countries for which the EU is
a key export market in the 2010s, such as Argentina, Ukraine,
Romania, Latvia and Kenya.
- Stricter certification schemes are put in place, stimulated
by initiatives by transnational corporations.
- There is European-wide coordination on issues such as sharing
the burden of the costly recall of cereals and a rush programme
to develop alternative bases for common children's food, many
of which rely on the affected cereals. Heavy reliance is set on
early warning systems and regulation of developments in biotechnology
to avoid similar outbreaks in the future.
- There is a renewed global effort to address climate change.
- Initial fears of a biological weapons attack cause several nations
to place themselves on military alert.
- Xenophobic reactions to illegal immigrants increase as they
are seen as potential carriers of exotic viruses.
- Trade disputes increase, stemming from fears of other possible
- Efficient support systems, notably at local level, help to minimize
deaths and to optimize treatment of victims.
- Ongoing agricultural reforms, which are further accelerated
in the aftermath, help reduce the spread of the fungus.
The roots of many environmental crises can lie in the very complexity
of human and natural systems and their interactions. Recognizing
this and remaining alert to unexpected developments can help to
reduce shocks and to respond to crises when they occur. Foresight,
early warning and flexible response provisions can play key roles.