AN outbreak of norovirus this summer could spark a winter if hell with a vomiting bug crisis, an expert has warned.
There have been reports of localised cases of the nasty bug, but health officials have denied it's widespread.
The nasty infection, dubbed the winter vomiting bug, along with flu put the NHS under unprecedented pressure last winter, as cases of the illness soared and hospitals struggled to keep up with the demand for beds.
And this year could be worse, if a new strain circulates as the weather cools down, public health expert John Harris warned.
The last time there was an outbreak in the spring and summer, in 2002, it was followed by a new strain of the virus that wreaked havoc that winter, he wrote for The Conversation.
"The midsummer peak of 2002 was notable compared to the previous six years when there was a considerable decline in norovirus activity during the summer months," Mr Harris, who lectures at Liverpool University, wrote.
"Following the increased summer activity of 2002, there were more cases than usual reported in the following winter, higher than any of the preceding years.
"Now, 16 years later, are we on the cusp of a new viral strain? And will it mean a winter crisis for the NHS?
"At the moment, it’s too early to say what is going on this summer and what will happen in the near future.
"What this does highlight, however, is the need to establish surveillance which considers various sources of reporting."
There has been a reported increase in the number of people complaining of vomiting and diarrhoea so far this summer, mainly in children.
Public Health England denies it's down to a norovirus outbreak, but has recorded an increase in the number of people called its helpline.
"This is surveillance of symptoms appearing among the public, it tells us nothing of what pathogens might be present," Mr Harris cautioned.
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"But we must also be careful of putting all of our trust in laboratory reports of norovirus, as national lab data are mostly from older people aged 65 or over and so are representative mainly of what is going on in care homes and hospitals, rather than what is happening in the community in real time.
"As it takes time after any outbreak starts for samples to be submitted for testing, there is also always a lag between laboratory reports of norovirus and community activity."
Last year thousands of patients were admitted to hospital suffering with the winter vomiting bug.
By the middle of January this year norovirus cases had soared to a five year high with some 2,768 cases recorded in the six months prior.
At the same time cases of Aussie flu were putting unprecedented pressure on the NHS, leaving ambulances queuing for hours at A&E and patients sleeping in corridors waiting for beds.
Many emergency departments were failing to treat patients within the recommended four hours - marking the worst performance since record began in 2004.
Health bosses said the NHS had reached a "watershed moment" as it recorded it's worst year on record.
Mr Harris called for better surveillance of norovirus, suggesting schools absentee notices, social media posts and voluntary reporting methods like the online tool FluSurvey, could be used to better track potential outbreaks.
"Surveillance is not just an exercise in counting – it is also there to provide information that can be acted upon," he said.
"It might come to nothing, as in the winter of 2012/2013 when there were numerous news reports of greater than expected norovirus cases in the UK.
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"That winter turned out to be fairly ordinary and was only exceptional for how early in the season a flurry of confirmed cases came.
"This was also later found to be associated with another variant of the virus which, happily, did not lead to the busy season that was predicted at the time.
"But forewarned is forearmed.
"Given the strain on resources that the NHS has suffered in previous winters, and the trend in 2002 when a summertime outbreak led to a winter epidemic, it would be wise to prepare now and be particularly vigilant with infection control to help mitigate potential outbreaks."
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