Moderate El Niños often bring big snows
* Windy and chilly, but gradually drying out: Full Forecast *
Our winter outlook, and several others that have been issued, are calling for better than average chances of a snowy winter because we're currently experience a weak to moderate El Niño event (an event characterized by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific that can lead to shifts in weather worldwide). Our local National Weather Service Office in Sterling, Va. recently posted an article discussing the relationship between El Niño events and snow here. Here's an excerpt from the article along with a telling graphic:
On average, the stronger the El Niño episode, the warmer and wetter the winters have been. These findings can largely be linked to a stronger than normal sub-tropical jet that typically occurs during moderate to strong El Niño winters, which would favor more active storm systems from the south that draw warm, moist air northward as opposed to the drier Alberta clippers from the northwest. Seasonal snowfall averaged above normal for weak and moderate El Niño winters while below normal for strong El Niño episodes. During strong El Niño episodes, the bulk of the cold air remains north of the mid-Atlantic region, often resulting in precipitation falling as rain instead of changing to snow.
Interestingly, though moderate El Niños tend to produce above average snows for the season, slightly below average snow is characteristic of December during such events. When do you think we'll see our first accumulating snow?
| November 27, 2009; 11:00 AM ET
Categories: Local Climate, Winter Storms
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