McPhaden, M.J. (2015): Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Clim. Change, 5, 791–795, doi:10.1038/nclimate2775.
The scientific community and the popular press were abuzz in early 2014 with the possibility that a “monster” El Niño was incubating in the tropical Pacific. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions then suggested similarities with the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño, which is the strongest on record. Model forecasts from the early months of 2014 were also consistent in predicting development of El Niño conditions as the year progressed.
But then the big El Niño went bust, defying conventional wisdom and the computer model forecasts. Why this happened is a mystery that has left the experts scratching their heads. It was doubly confounding when the very weak warming that eventually did develop in 2014 was expected to die out in early 2015, but instead came roaring back with renewed vigor. El Niño continues to surprise us despite decades of research into its causes.
We are now on track though for what will almost certainly be a strong El Niño in 2015, one that may rival 1997/98 and 1982/83 in intensity. El Niños, particularly strong ones, have major impacts on patterns of weather variability worldwide, increasing the probability for drought, floods, heat waves and other extreme events in far flung corners of the planet. The good news is that we know a strong El Niño is developing and can plan for its consequences, which are most noticeable in the late boreal fall and winter seasons.