“Flash flooding is expected across the upper North Island over the next two days” trumpeted the news headlines last Tuesday morning.
What, again? This is the third or fourth time this autumn that gutters and drains needed to be cleared of leaves in preparation for a deluge.
There was a time, not too long ago, that such flood warnings were issued for only “1 in 100” year events.
“1 in 100” does not mean that it occurs only once every 100 years. It means that there is a one per cent chance of such an event occurring in a single year. Statistically, a 1 in 100 year event may occur many times in one year, but the average over a number of years, will be one.
It is wishful thinking to conclude that the next 500 years will therefore, be flood-free.
Given the clear impact that our carbon emissions have on global warming, we can expect only more extreme weather.
This may be why we no longer hear warnings of 1 in 100 year events. The climate is changing so fast, that scientists have not been able to reassess their frequency.
One thing that science is getting better at, is the attribution of extreme weather events to man-made causes.
This week’s deluge, which should clear the country today, was described by a NIWA meteorologist as a “tropical torrent” and a “serious situation … arising in New Zealand.”
NIWA goes on to say that April, only six days old, is shaping up to be an abnormally wet month. Five time the monthly rainfall was expected to fall in the last couple of days, with more heavy rainfall events expected.
So the Franklin ward, and Hauraki and Thames-Coromandel districts, should expect more damage from storms like that earlier in March that was declared a medium-scale adverse event.
How many times do we need “adverse events” to be declared before we realise that we need to take serious action on climate change?
Repeatedly clearing drains and gutters only normalises the situation.
The actions we must take must be focused on the dual fronts of reducing our carbon emissions, and on clawing atmospheric carbon back from our oceans and atmosphere.
A clear and strong climate action celebrating this year’s International Earth Day is planned for St Andrews Anglican Church in Pukekohe on Sunday April 24th. Biochar will be created and trees planted at “The Charcoal Fire” event. Join us – bring a gold coin or one kilogram of dry wood for burning anytime between 8:00 and 11:00 am.