Texas nearing record for annual precipitation
With an average of 39 inches of rain dousing state, mark is a shower away
Published 6:30 am, Friday, December 10, 2004
Here's the extended weather forecast for Houston: sunny and partly cloudy skies. Mostly seasonal temperatures. Light winds.
What, no rain? Yes, really.
This dry respite also goes for much of the rest of a similarly soggy Texas. The state has received so much rain this year that it's just a few widespread gullywashers away from setting an all-time record for annual rainfall.
With an average of 39.4 inches falling across the state through November, 2004 is already the third-wettest year in Texas history. The months of June and November were the wettest ever.
Texas set its all-time annual record, 41.9 inches, in 1919.
"We've got a shot at setting the record this year with a wet December," said Victor Murphy, a program manager with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. Texas receives an average of 1.8 inches of rain in December.
Forecasters calculate a statewide average by dividing Texas into 10 climate regions. The average rainfall for each of these regions is weighted, by total area, to derive the state's rainfall.
Aquifer rises to occasionThe excessive rain has been largely a blessing, filling aquifers, keeping unwatered lawns green and preventing wildfires across the state.
"The rain has been tremendous in this part of Texas, and it has been enough to bring the aquifer to a near-record-setting level," said Margaret Garcia, a spokeswoman for the Edwards Aquifer Authority.
Water levels for the aquifer, located in Central Texas, are closely watched because it is the primary source of drinking water for 1.7 million people. The aquifer's current level of 701 feet is more than 30 feet above normal levels for this time of year, and near the all-time record high of 703 feet set in 1992, Garcia said.
That's a far cry from summer 2000 — when the aquifer levels fell below 640 feet — the last time Texas was mired in a great drought. San Antonio, which is largely served by the Edwards Aquifer, faced water restrictions that year, as did many other Texas cities. The city of Houston, with ample surface water, was mostly spared.
Although nearly the entire state is now drought-free, thanks to the wet weather, dry conditions could return at any time.
Spencer said Texas is in the middle of a 20-year dry cycle controlled by a long-term climate pattern over the Pacific Ocean. Texas swung into this dry pattern in the mid-1990s, he said.
The one downside of a wet year is the flourishing grass and vegetation that follow — perfect fodder for wildfires when the drought returns, he said.
Texas should not expect a drought to come anytime soon, however. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that, because of a weak El Niño over the Pacific this winter, the state, particularly Southeast Texas, is likely to receive more rainfall than normal at least into the spring. Southeast Texas should also be slightly cooler, forecasters say.
El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that has important consequences for weather around the globe, including higher rainfall across the southern part of the United States.
One feature that contributed to the excess rain in Texas this year, Murphy said, is a moist southwest flow in the atmosphere from the Pacific Ocean that has combined with humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, creating a near-perfect incubator for regular and heavy thunderstorms.
All-time record is safeHouston has already had its seventh-wettest year, with 64.1 inches. Barring a super-saturated December, however, Houston won't catch the all-time record of 72.9 inches, set in 1900.
Although no single tropical storm or hurricane can bring rainfall to the entire state, conventional wisdom suggests that at least one storm should have hit Texas to push rainfall totals this year, Murphy said. But none did.
In 1919, the record-setting year, a major Category-4 hurricane struck near Corpus Christi. In 1941, the second-place year with 40.9 inches, two hurricanes hit Texas. The previous third-place record-holder was the year 1900.
A little storm hit Galveston that year, too.