"We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be." - John Holdren
|Impact of Climate Change
"The research community provides much information to support discussions on 'dangerous climate change'. Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2oC will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond." -- Synthesis Report from the Climate Change Congress (2009)
"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems. Individually and collectively, these changes pose risks for a wide range of human and environmental systems, including freshwater resources, the coastal environment,
ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries, human health, and national security, among others." -- U.S. National Research Council (2010)
Unfortunately, the equilibrium global surface air temperature change due to a doubling of CO2 from 280 ppm (pre-Industrial Revolution) to 560 ppm is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5oC with a best estimate of about 3oC, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5oC (Knutti and Hegerl, 2008; IPCC, 2007). As this section of Web pages will reveal, 3 oC will have serious negative consequences for life on this planet.
Sea Level Rise & the Coastal Environment
Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
Topics below are forthcoming:
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production
Allergies & Asthma
National and Human Security
Australia and New Zealand
Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
Global Tipping Points
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
1 oC Warmer World
2 oC Warmer World
3 oC Warmer World
4 oC Warmer World
5 oC Warmer World
6 oC Warmer World
I highly recommend the following resources which were used extensively in this section of the Website:
According to IPCC WGII (2007):
Figure 1 (IPCC, 2007) shows locations of significant changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial,marine, and freshwater biological systems), along with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. It is clear that global warming has caused singificant changes in many physical and biological systems.
- Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
- A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence
on many physical and biological systems.
- Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
- More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future
impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments.
- Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global
- Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to
- Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.
- Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.
|Fig. 1: Locations of significant changes in data series of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004.
Figure 2 (IPCC, 2007) shows the key impacts of climate change as global average temperature rises toward 5 oC.
Fig. 2: Key Impacts vs Increasing Global T
Figure 3 (IPCC, 2007) shows the possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme weather and climate events.
Fig. 3: Impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme weather & climate events
Next: Sea Level Rise & the Coastal Environment
Scott A. Mandia
T-202 Smithtown Sciences Bldg.
533 College Rd.
Selden, NY 11784
Last updated: 06/05/10