The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. The ocean data assimilation system is a crucial component of ECMWF Earth system approach. It produces both real-time and reanalysed ocean states and it relies on the assimilation of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, radar altimeter sea-level anomaly (SLA) data assimilation improves the representation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea level, which is important for extended to seasonal range weather forecasts. In February 2017, ECMWF has concluded an agreement with the Copernicus Marine Service which formalises the terms under which the Copernicus Marine Serviceprovides the Centre with its satellite sea-level anomaly products for ocean data assimilation into ECMWF system.
El Niño is the main source of predictability for year-to-year climate variations and is closely studied by ECMWF and its seasonal forecast experts. The El Niño acts to redistribute heat and precipitation over the globe. It bestows beneficial effects on economies as well as negative effects. In the United States, for example, researchers have estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño pattern inflicted costs of approximately $4 billion, but was offset by $19 billion in benefits. Many other countries have endured an economical deficit only.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states. ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. The Centre also offers a catalogue of forecast data that can be purchased by businesses worldwide.
Benefits for users
- Improvement of the representation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea level changes, which is important for extended-range and seasonal-range weather forecasts.
- Minimum notification periods required by ECMWF for testing purposes.
- Operational service from the Copernicus Marine Service.