The first nuclear conflict on our planet could erupt between India and Pakistan due to the growing issues around access to drinking water in the Indian subcontinent, and conflicts over the waters of the Indus river, say scientists from the UN University.
The basin of the Indus river is a water time bomb which can explode at any moment, increasing water scarcity in the region and causing irreversible changes in the climate. There are other conflicts related to water access, and we analyze them today, the Earth could enter the path of peaceful and sustainable use of water resources, — said Vladimir Smakhtin, Director of the Institute for water, environment and health UN in Hamilton (Canada).
As he says, the conflict over water resources in the sub-continent has escalated in recent years – just a month ago, India announced the termination of work of the permanent bilateral Commission on the Indus river, driving water relations between India and Pakistan since the 1960s, when these countries signed the Treaty on Indus waters.
Under this agreement, India received the right to use the waters of three Eastern tributaries of the Indus and Pakistan – by the waters of its two Western tributaries, and in fact the Indus. This agreement was generated fears in Islamabad that Delhi can deprive him of access to water, cutting off those tributaries, which flow through the territory of India, if these countries once the war breaks out.
In September 2016, the Indian government first expressed its intention to revise the agreement or leave that official Islamabad declared hostile action on the part of Delhi and said that such a step the Indian government will be regarded as the act of declaring war.
Experts of the United Nations University have analyzed the situation and came to the conclusion that the lack of drinking water in the Indian subcontinent is really a very serious problem that, in the absence of cooperation between India and Pakistan and the continuation of the current vector of their relationship, may lead to war between them in the near future.
Part of the problem is due to external causes – climate change, which gradually reduces the amount of waste tributary of the Indus, as well as the growing consumption of water from two adjoining India and Pakistan countries – China and Afghanistan. According to scientists, the Indus and all other rivers of South Asia will suffer the most from climate change and its consequences such as droughts and chronic water shortage will manifest itself most rapidly in the region.
The second part of the problem is of internal nature – the Indian subcontinent already has problems with the supply of water, and further growth of deficit of water resources may create political instability in these countries, especially in Pakistan, where the level of water consumption is particularly high, and the political system is on the verge of a failed state.
According to Robert Wirsing, one of the authors of the report of the United Nations University, a long history of conflict between the three nuclear powers in the region – Pakistan, India and China – allows you to only talk about negative forecasts and increase the likelihood of conflict in the coming years, including in the nuclear dimension. The rejection of the agreement of 1960, he said, will only increase this probability.