Prior to all this I had been looking at what should be the "actual" surface temperature versus what the models assume to be the actual surface temperature. Climate Explorer has a good deal of the model runs archived so that you can mask regions. The tropics are my main region of concern primarily because of the huge latent heat generation which is a source for the majority of clouds. Water vapor response, clouds radiant forcing and deep convection are all very uncertain climate factors. So I have prepared and may continue to prepare comparisons of model "actual" temperatures to observational temperatures. This isn't really as simple as it should be. Models use TAS, Temperature Air Surface which isn't really something measured. Land surface temperature is measured roughly 2 meters above the surface located at the surface station and the elevation of those surface stations varies considerably. A "potential" surface air temperature is one way to approach this issue, but over the ocean no "surface" air temperature is reliably measured only a sea "surface" temperature which is often really a sea "sub-surface" temperature. That makes "what surface?" an important question that really doesn't have a good answer.
Initially, it looked like the models with the more lower than observed temperature had the greatest "sensitivity", but this collection implies that there is not much correlation between getting surface temperature right and sensitivity. It looks more like a bunch of wild assed guesses.
One of Forster's conclusions was that the spread in the wild assed guesses indicated that the modelers were not "adjusting" their models to match observation. I heartily agree with that conclusion. Another was the present and future forcing and feedbacks was the source of the variability in the model "forecasts". Well, if you "adjust" the model runs to a 1860 to 1999 baseline anomaly or any other past period anomaly, then the majority of the variability is in the future. If you "adjust" the model runs to a future baseline for anomaly then most of the variation is in the past and would be due to wild assed guessing.