A year has passed since Barack Obama became the first African American president in the history of the United States. His supporters point to several feats, such as the decision to tackle health care reform, as proof that Obama is on the right course. His detractors complain about a series of broken promises, including the delay in closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, to sustain the hypothesis that Obama was not ready for the top job.
In the latest State of the Union address, Obama unleashed his oratory skills to describe a dejected America, humiliated by the millionaire bonuses in recently bailed-out banks, disappointed with the heavily partisan tone of debates in legislatures, radio shows and television screens, and anxious about an unemployment rate that has reached the 10 per cent mark.
Faced with this challenge, Obama appealed to values, saying, “In this new decade, it’s time the American people get a government that matches their decency; that embodies their strength.” The call is reminiscent of the actions of another Democratic U.S. president who arrived to Washington with the outsider label.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter conducted a campaign aimed at proving that the federal government could be “as good and decent as the American people”—a patent reference to the scandals that marred the presidency of Richard Nixon and annihilated any chance of a victory by Republican Gerald Ford.
In 2008, Obama’s message of change resonated across the country, assisted by the strong feelings half of the electorate maintained against outgoing head of state George W. Bush, and aided by the lacklustre Republican campaign featuring John McCain and Sarah Palin.
Like Carter, Obama is now facing an incredulous public. Carter arrived to the White House in January 1977, riding the anti-corruption wave and with an approval rating of 71 per cent. One year later, his numbers had fallen to 52 per cent.
For Obama, the situation is similar. He began with the support of 64 per cent of Americans shortly after taking office. This month, Obama has dropped to 47 per cent. He readily acknowledged in his nationally televised speech that, for some Americans, “change has not come fast enough.”
The skepticism is beginning to show in the way Americans relate to their president. One year after taking office, Obama is no longer a shoe-in for 2012. Only 30 per cent of Americans are ready to vote for him again in the next presidential election.
In addition, some of the messages that propelled Obama to victory are no longer reverberating as strongly with the public. The proportion of Americans who believe Obama “inspires hope” has fallen from 61 per cent in November 2009 to 55 per cent this month. A majority still expects Obama to deliver, but not as fervently as they once did.
After his first year as president, Carter’s approval never reached the 60 per cent plateau again. In mid-1979, Carter went on national television and delivered a speech where optimism appeared to be all but forgotten: “The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America,” Carter said. “The gap between our citizens and our government has never been so wide.”
It was too late to ask Americans to have conviction. The incumbent president, debilitated by Ted Kennedy’s challenge for the Democratic nomination and vilified on foreign policy, ended up losing the 1980 election to Republican Ronald Reagan.
At this point, and with a year to go before he reports on the State of the Union again, Obama has shifted from a message of hope to a plea for faith. Like Carter, he needs to deal with the effects of a devastating crisis. However, the current president’s main challenges for the next 12 months are clear: establish tougher guidelines for banks, work across party lines to come up with a health care reform that pleases most, and generate jobs at a quicker pace.
The numbers for Obama at this juncture are not great. While a drop in support is common after the first few months of an American presidency, this slump has been particularly distressing due to the magnitude of Obama’s victory and the high expectations that his supporters bestowed upon him.
Unlike Carter, Obama chose his first State of the Union to exhibit the anger in the land. He later told Americans what they should expect to have a year from now: financial reform, less partisan bickering, and more jobs. Passing two out of these three tests would practically guarantee his approval rating returning to the mid-60s, and make the idea of a two-term presidency more appetizing for a majority of Americans.