The BEST idea reconsidered
The Berkeley Earth
Surface Temperature (BEST) project has undertaken the largest
analysis of the world's temperature records in history. The project
will announce its initial findings in the coming weeks.
The team behind BEST aim to deliver an independent analysis of
historical global warming which the researchers claim will be more
credible because of its apparent neutrality.
However, the expertise and neutrality of the BEST team have been
questioned and the
"independent, non-political, non-partisan" status of the study
is in some doubt.
The project's list of
funders includes the Charles G Koch Charitable Foundation, set
up and funded by the billionaire Koch Brothers. Koch's interest
in the project may be legitimate but the foundation's donation has
The initiative comes in the wake of "Climategate" and the
claims by climate sceptics that emails hacked from the Climatic
Research Unit at the University of East Anglia indicate that the "hockey stick" may have been a
fake. The graph shows a dramatic rise in average global temperature
in the 20th Century.
The BEST project will use more data than any other temperature
study ever has, aggregating 10 different global temperature
datasets. It will also publish the raw figures online so that
anyone may scrutinise them. Chair Richard Muller hopes the study's
results will crystallize a broader consensus on exactly how much
the planet has warmed since records began.
told the Guardian newspaper: "We are bringing the spirit of
science back to a subject that has become too argumentative and too
contentious". In a discussion of Mann's "hockey stick" he also
"a plea to let science proceed unmolested".
But there are already doubts about the independence of the
project. The Koch brothers, owners of Koch Industries, have funded
various think tanks and movements in America who have expressed
strong scepticism over climate change. This caused Greenpeace to
accuse them of
"secretly funding the climate denial machine".
stated in the run-up to Copenhagen that "another option is that
we could learn to live with global warming", adding: "Chilly
Berkeley might be nicer with a few degrees warming."
The argument that we should aim to adapt to climate change
rather than reduce emissions has also been used by climate
sceptics, including Exxon Mobil funded thinktanks and the Koch
The only climatologist named as taking
part in the study is Judith Curry and she has stated that her
role in far from central. She said on her blog: "I'm not
exactly sure what my originally intended role in this was…. As they
have begun analyzing the data, I have completely
refrained from commenting on the process or preliminary
Judith Curry is a controversial figure, known best for
testifying to US congress as a Republican witness on climate
science. Curry holds the view that
doubt and natural variability make it hard to anticipate
whether CO2 is responsible for climate change, an opinion also
shared by the oil industry.
During an argument, this disposition led NASA scientist and Real
Climate blogger Gavin Schmidt to declare,
"I will simply assume you are a conduit for untrue statements
rather than their originator".
Given the team's ambition and the reams of data they will be
working with, it's surprising that not one qualified climate
scientist has been employed to oversee the analysis closely.
Anthony Watts, retired TV weatherman, climate sceptic and owner
Watts Up With That? has been invited to take part in the
research. His blog was among the sceptic sites to push the
"Climategate" story attacking published climate scientists.
Watts reports that he was in regular correspondence with Muller
before the project's launch and that he
"spent the day with the BEST team yesterday at Lawrence Livermore
Berkeley Laboratories". However, he is not named on the BEST
website and he has not yet revealed his exact role.
It is unclear whether the research will be published in a peer
The idea behind the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project
is a noble one, but it is unlikely to overturn any scientific
conclusions on temperature. Despite valid statistical criticism,
the principal results of Mann's "hockey stick" graph have been
independently confirmed by the
US National Research Council and the
National Center for Atmospheric Research.
[Updated 15th March - Although correct, this last line is
not relevant; the BEST project is not concerned with assessing
reconstructions of past temperature from paleo records.]
Global temperature records are also already kept by several
institutions that use peer-reviewed methodologies. Some of these
records date back to 1880 and their respective
long-term trends agree very well with each other.