US monthly crude oil production is expected to exceed the amount of crude oil imports later in 2013 for the first time since February 1995, the Energy Information Administration projected. The projected change is primarily attributed to rising US crude oil production, particularly from shale and other tight rock formations in North Dakota and Texas.
In fourth-quarter 2014, monthly crude oil production is forecast to top 8 million b/d and net crude oil imports are expected to fall below 7 million b/d. The gap between monthly US crude oil production and imports is expected to reach 2 million b/d by the end of next year, according to EIA’s March 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Changes could happen to the timing forecast of the crossover between oil production and imports, based largely on uncertainties in supply conditions.