Week one of the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen, which aims to draw up a treaty to succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, is almost up and we’ve been following it closely to bring you a summary of what’s being said about China’s role.
First off, for everything you always wanted to know about Copenhagen (but were too afraid to ask), The Guardian is a fantastic vessel of information regarding the countries and issues to watch. Global Voices have also sent four bloggers to cover the event, and have provided a useful collection of citizen media initiatives doing the same. A daily-updated diary of events can also be found on The Green Leap Forward, with links to other popular blogs discussing China’s environmental issues.
From the get go, China was intent on limiting greenhouse gas emissions, pledging to reduce its “carbon intensity” by 40-45% by 2020. Meanwhile, the US’ pledge stood at a 17% reduction, the EU’s at 20% and, according to the BBC, most developing countries have been demanding a 25-40% cut. Bryony Worthington has put these figures in context for us, and claims:
Because economic forecasts already predict that China’s economy will become less carbon intensive in the next decade, the country’s pledge actually only amounts to a cut of between zero and 12% off business as usual emissions in 2020 (depending on what version of the future you choose to compare it with). That is roughly a 40% increase in CO2 emissions on current levels.
As the WSJ’s China Real Time Report told us, Michael Levi, director of energy security and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations has also been equally skeptical in light of such figures, and has put forward some comprehensive ideas for how China can further cut emissions intensity. Levi says China must go beyond her ‘business-as-usual’ method, and “deliver on existing renewables and forestry goals, along, perhaps, with new standards for some or all of heavy industry, transportation, and building and power plant efficiency.”
The China Real Time Report does admit, however, that the pledge is a positive step for China in a diplomatic direction, and should push the US to follow suit. Together, both nations are responsible for 40% of the earth’s climate-changing greenhouse gases. China Real Time blogger Jing Yang says:
A deal in Copenhagen could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products.
China Dialogue claims there’s a long way to go before decisions are set in stone, and the earliest sign of a concrete negotiation may not appear til December 2010. The recent leaking of a draft text of a deal prepared by the Danish government, which allegedly sets unequal limits on carbon emissions for developed and developing countries (allowing the former to emit twice as much) has also thrown any chance of agreement into a state of disarray.
Meanwhile, others on China Dialogue claimed that China’s role in international cooperation and diplomacy are far more important than pledges and promises. Scientific American outlined some details of China and the US’ clean energy program, which could include the opening of a joint research center receiving $75 million in funding from both governments over the next five years.
But here, too, things are getting a little more, erm, heated: in the past few days, both countries have been grappling at Copenhagen, with US chief negotiator Todd Stern urging China to “stand behind” her promise of reducing emissions, and the PRC accusing the States of “insincerity” towards developing nations in signing 1992 climate convention that promised voluntary carbon reductions. Shanghai Daily isn’t best pleased about the potential of carbon tax, either.
There is also a certain amount of anger bubbling over in burgeoning Chinese cities. Last month in Guangzhou, citizens took to the streets in a protest against plans to build several waste incinerators that may be within a thousand meters of their homes. Bloggers blogged and Twitterers tweeted, showing how environmental issues are garnering a place in public opinion.
But, looking on the brighter side of life, China Daily has been diverting attention away from speculation over emissions and to… population control. Zhao Baige, vice-minister of National Population and Family Planning Commission of China (NPFPC), claimed China has seen 400 million fewer births, resulting in 18 million fewer tons of CO2 emissions a year. That said, Zhao admitted the pressing problem of China’s gender imbalance, but then hemmed:
I’m not saying that what we have done is 100 percent right, but I’m sure we are going in the right direction and now 1.3 billion people have benefited.”
In the meantime, what goes on behind Copenhagen’s doors remains a mystery. For now, we can see that China is lusting after financial support from bigger players as she makes more diplomatic moves in the climate change game. But what next week, and the future, will bring is still very much up in the (dirty, warming) air.