Report: Population turnover could have big effect on primary
Nearly one-third of potential voters weren't eligible for last primary
Voter turnout is always important in New Hampshire's presidential primary, but a new study concludes population turnover also will play a big role.
A report by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire estimates that more than 30 percent of potential voters were either not old enough to vote in 2008 or have moved to the state since then. A similar analysis comparing the 2000 and 2008 electorates found a similarly high turnover -- 33 percent of those eligible to vote in the 2008 primary had not been part of the 2000 electorate.
Contrary to the image of deeply rooted Yankees, New Hampshire has one of the nation's most mobile populations. Only one-third of those ages 25 and older were born in the state. A second demographic force influencing the electorate is aging: Between 2008 and 2015, 129,000 residents turned 18. Together, those turning 18 and those moving into the state represent 326,000 potential new voters, or about 30 percent of those eligible to vote this year.
"Young voters and people who have moved into the state in recent years are two powerful demographic forces that are reshaping the New Hampshire electorate," said co-author Kenneth Johnson. "So judging what's going to happen in the New Hampshire primary based on what's happened in the past is perilous."
According to the report, the changes have resulted in significant growth in the Democratic primary voter base.