“Using new methodology, scientists calculate that approximately 6 million American adults have Alzheimer’s disease or mild cognitive impairment, which can sometimes be a precursor to the disease. The estimate, funded by the National Institutes of Health, also forecasts that these numbers will more than double to 15 million by 2060, as the population ages…This new forecast differs from earlier estimates. For the first time, scientists have attempted to account for numbers of people with biomarkers or other evidence of possible preclinical Alzheimer’s disease, but who do not have impairment or Alzheimer’s dementia. People with such signs of preclinical disease are at increased risk to develop Alzheimer’s dementia. The researchers say they factored those rates of transition in their multi-state model; further, the model can estimate the impact of some possible prevention efforts on the number of future cases.”
Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer’s disease in the United States (Alzheimer’s & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association)
From the abstract:
- Introduction: We forecast the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and evaluated potential impacts of primary and secondary preventions in the United States.
- Methods: We used a multistate model incorporating biomarkers for preclinical AD with US population projections.
- Results: Approximately 6.08 million Americans had either clinical AD or mild cognitive impairment due to AD in 2017 and that will grow to 15.0 million by 2060. In 2017, 46.7 million Americans had preclinical AD (amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, or both), although many may not progress to clinical disease during their lifetimes. Primary and secondary preventions have differential impact on future disease burden.
- Discussion: Because large numbers of persons are living with preclinical AD, our results underscore the need for secondary preventions for persons with existing AD brain pathology who are likely to develop clinical disease during their lifetimes as well as primary preventions for persons without preclinical disease.
The Study in Context
- Bill Gates announces $50 million investment to fight Alzheimer’s Disease
- From Anti-Alzheimer’s ‘Magic Bullets’ to True Brain Health
- Solving the Brain Fitness Puzzle Is the Key to Self-Empowered Aging
- 10 million people develop dementia every year
- Report: 35% of worldwide dementia cases could be prevented by modifying these 9 modifiable risk factors