Haiti nears completion of a canal drawing on a border river
On May 18th the Haitian ambassador to the Dominican Republic, Smith Augustin, announced that talks between the Dominican Republic and Haiti were under way to resolve controversy regarding Haiti's construction of a canal that would draw on water from the Massacre River (which forms part of the border between the countries) to irrigate its agricultural land. This would benefit Haitian farmers but could hurt Dominican agriculture. It is highly likely that Haiti will connect the canal to the river whether there is a deal or not, but the absence of a deal would aggravate bilateral relations.
The Dominican authorities remain committed to preventing the construction of the canal, owing to potential negative consequences for agriculture projects on their side of the border. Talks between the countries started in early May. The Dominican authorities reminded Haiti that the countries are bound by a 1929 treaty that allows both sides to utilise water from the river but not to modify its course. The Haitian side claims to respect the treaty, although the canal was almost complete before there was any dialogue with the Dominican Republic to ensure compliance with the treaty.
The canal issue is the latest in a series of spats between the neighbours. Notably, uncontrolled migration of Haitians to the Dominican Republic, contraband, and Haiti's frustration at running a wide trade deficit with its neighbour are long‑standing bones of contention. In January Luis Abinader, the Dominican president, signed a co-operation agreement with Jovenel Moïse, the Haitian president, to address these issues. Since then the Dominican Republic has increased border controls, unilaterally launched the construction of segments of a wall at strategic focal points along the 376km‑long border, and promised to take a hard stance against illicit trade. Although the Haitian authorities have responded to the construction of the wall by indicating that they respect the Dominican Republic's right to reinforce its border, public opinion is less favourable. Meanwhile, the unilateral construction of the canal is generating its own controversy in the Dominican Republic, although the Dominican government has stated that it will find an amicable solution with Haiti (no details of which have been released).
Impact on the forecast
A common policy to address border development issues will be difficult to enforce given differences in political interests between the two countries. Although unilateral efforts—such as the construction of the canal and border wall—will continue to strain relations, military confrontation or other destabilising moves are unlikely.