- Risk homeostasis
Risk homeostasis is a
risktheory developed by Gerald J.S. Wilde, a professor emeritus of psychology at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. This theory is fleshed out in Wilde's book1.
The theory of risk
homeostasisstates that an individual has an inbuilt target level of acceptable risk which does not change. This level varies between individuals. When the level of acceptable risk in one part of the individual's life changes; there will be a corresponding rise/drop in acceptable risk elsewhere. The same, argues Wilde, is true of larger human systems (e.g. a population of drivers).
For example, in the famous
Munichtaxicab study, half of a fleet of cabs were equipped with antilock braking system(ABS) brakes, while the other half had older brake systems. The accident rate for both types of car (ABS and non-ABS) remained the same, because ABS-car drivers took more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them. They raised their risk taking, assuming the ABS would then lower the real risks, leaving their "target level" of risk unchanged. The non-ABS drivers drove the same way, thinking that they had to be more careful, since ABS would not be there to help in case of a dangerous situation.
Similarly, in the late 1970s, the government of
British Columbia, a province in western Canada, undertook a massive anti-drunk-driving campaign. They succeeded in reducing the accident rate (due to drunken driving) by nearly 18% over a four-month period. However, accidents caused by other factors increased by 19% during the same time. People took fewer risks driving while intoxicated, but more doing other dangerous actions on the road.
Wilde cites a multitude of other studies which show the same thing. Anti-smoking campaigns do not work; neither do industrial safety campaigns of most kinds. The massive increase in car safety features has had little effect on the overall accident rate or the cost of such accidents (the death rate from traffic accidents, however, has decreased).
Wilde argues that safety campaigns tend to "move risk-taking behaviour around," rather than reducing it. In order to increase safety, two things need to happen. First, people's future expectations need to be raised. Many studies have shown that those who value the future more highly have lower accident rates and less risk taking behaviour than those who discount the value of the future (an alternative explanation about why behaviours such as smoking are predominantly lower socio-economic class phenomena). Second, there needs to be direct incentives for people to behave safely. In some companies, direct payments to workers for zero accidents (and very small fines when accidents do happen) have massively lowered accident rates. The functional approach thus seems to be "much carrot, little bit of stick."
The implications of Wilde's work on areas such as health care are startling. Given baby boomers’ increasing use of health-care resources in most industrialised societies, Wilde's theory seems to suggest that health care systems should be directly financially rewarding healthy behaviour and extracting payment for unhealthy behaviour.
It should be noted, however, that Wilde's work is not widely accepted and has garnered significant criticism. [http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/92]
* [http://psyc.queensu.ca/target/index.html Target Risk] - web version of the first edition of Wilde's book
* [http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/92 Risk homeostasis hypothesis: a rebuttal] - rebuttal of Wilde's findings citing additional academic sources. Requires login / registration
* 1. "Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health", Gerald J.S. Wilde ISBN 0-9699124-3-9
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.
Look at other dictionaries:
Homeostasis — (from Greek: ὅμος, hómos , equal ; and ιστημι, istēmi , to stand lit. to stand equally ; coined by Walter Bradford Cannon) is the property of either an open system or a closed system, especially a living organism, that regulates its internal… … Wikipedia
Risk — takers redirects here. For the Canadian television program, see Risk Takers. For other uses, see Risk (disambiguation). Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable… … Wikipedia
Risk compensation — In ethology, risk compensation is an effect whereby individual people may tend to adjust their behavior in response to perceived changes in risk. It is seen as self evident that individuals will tend to behave in a more cautious manner if their… … Wikipedia
Risk management — For non business risks, see risk, and the disambiguation page risk analysis Example of risk management: A NASA model showing areas at high risk from impact for the International Space Station. Risk management is the identification, assessment,… … Wikipedia
Seat belt legislation — is a law or laws put in place to enforce or require, the fitting of seat belts to motor vehicles, or the wearing of seat belts by motor vehicle occupants. Most western countries have some seat belt legislation.Fact|date=March 2008.The legal… … Wikipedia
Speed limit — For a discussion of the maximum speed possible in the universe, see speed of light and special relativity. A road speed limit is the maximum speed allowed by law for road vehicles. Speed limits are commonly set and enforced by the legislative… … Wikipedia
Accident blackspot — An accident blackspot is a term used in road safety management to denote a place where road traffic accidents have historically been concentrated. It may have occurred for a variety of reasons, such as a sharp drop or corner in a straight road,… … Wikipedia
Copper in health — Normal absorption and distribution of copper. Cu = copper, CP = ceruloplasmin, green = ATP7B carrying copper. Copper is an essential trace element that is vital to the health of all living things (humans, plants, animals, and microorganisms). In… … Wikipedia
endocrine system, human — ▪ anatomy Introduction group of ductless glands (gland) that regulate body processes by secreting chemical substances called hormones (hormone). Hormones act on nearby tissues or are carried in the bloodstream to act on specific target organs… … Universalium
human disease — Introduction an impairment of the normal state of a human being that interrupts or modifies its vital functions. health versus disease Before human disease can be discussed, the meanings of the terms health, physical fitness, illness … Universalium