Il CEBM dell’Università di Oxford pubblica un riassunto dei dati globali sulla mortalità da Coronavirus, paese per paese.
L’Italia svetta in testa alla classifica. Perché? Queste le risposte della scienza al momento attuale:
In Italy, there are several reasons why the CFR is higher. The age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths, with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.
Coronavirus: Is Covid-19 the cause of all the fatalities in Italy? Sarah Newy reports Italy’s death rate might also be higher because of how fatalities are recorded. In Italy, all those who die in hospitals with Coronavirus are included in the death counts.
In this article, Professor Walter Ricciardi, Scientific Adviser to, Italy’s Minister of Health, reports, “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”
Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR.
Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):
- 49% had three or more health conditions,
- 26% had two other ‘pathologies’,
- 25% had one.
The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36% diabetes, and 33% ischemic heart disease.
The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103). The median age of those that died was >15 years higher than patients who contracted the infection (median age: died 81 years – infected 63 years).
In breve: fumiamo troppo, siamo vecchi e usiamo male gli antibiotici, peggio che nel resto d’Europa.