Graduation is hardly a given for freshmen in 2,000 of America's public high schools, according to a new study by researchers at the Center for Social Organization of Schools at The Johns Hopkins University.
Using data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics, researchers Robert Balfanz and Nettie Legters measured the "promoting power" of 10,000 regular and vocational high schools that enroll more than 300 students. They compared the number of freshmen in each school to the number of seniors there four years later.
The results gathered in their report, "Locating the Dropout Crisis," are troubling. They indicate that the dropout crisis is fueled by the 20 percent of high schools in which graduation is not the norm. These schools have "weak promoting power," or 40 percent or fewer seniors than the number of freshmen they enrolled four years earlier. Nearly half of the country's African American students and two out of five Latino students attend one of these "dropout factories," compared with just 11 percent of America's white students, the researchers said.
The study found that the high schools producing the largest number of dropouts are concentrated in 50 large and medium-sized cites and 10 southern and southwestern states. The study presents tables showing the number and concentration of high schools with weak promoting power by state (broken down by locale and minority concentration) and for the nation's 100 largest cities.
The study looked at the classes of 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2002, and found that the number of high schools with weak promoting power grew substantially during the 1990s. Balfanz and Legters applied the "promoting power" concept to enrollment figures for every high school in the country with more than 300 students. This significantly extends their initial work that examined the 35 largest cities and is the first study to quantify and locate the high schools nationwide that produce the largest number of dropouts.
"The underlying assumption ... is that high schools in which the number of seniors closely approximates the number of freshmen four years earlier will have high graduation rates and low dropout rates because most students will have remained in school, been promoted in a timely fashion and are on course to graduate," the researchers wrote. On the other hand, when a high school has 40 percent or fewer seniors than freshmen four years earlier, it is a strong indicator of high dropout and low graduation rates, they said.
The study does not directly compare the number of freshmen with the number of graduates four years later because the available data tracks graduation rates only by district and state, not by school. Recent controversies have also arisen over how schools calculate their graduation and dropout rates, and there is no national standard.
Balfanz and Legters, who have worked to reform failing high schools for a decade, see several solutions to these under-performing high schools: more effective middle schools so students come to high school prepared; comprehensive high school reform, which includes changes in the way schools are organized, courses geared to the needs and interests of students, and extensive training and support for teachers; and a substantial increase in the resources available to transform or replace the high schools that produce the greatest number of dropouts.
The authors note that no one strategy or reform model will work for all schools or locations, but point out that a national effort to dramatically improve the education provided to students who attend the 2,000 high schools where graduation is not the norm would bring enormous economic and social returns to the nation. Balfanz and Legters developed and continue to implement and study the Talent Development High Schools model, a comprehensive reform program developed at Johns Hopkins. Talent Development is observing its 10th anniversary with programs in more than 50 high schools across the country. The Baltimore Talent Development High School — the first school founded on the talent development curriculum rather than having it adopted by an existing school — will open in Baltimore this September.
The complete report "Locating the Dropout Crisis" is available at www.csos.jhu.edu/tdhs/rsch/Locating_Dropouts.pdf.
To speak with the researchers, contact Amy Cowles at 443-287-9960.
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