Three Australian scientists have been named among an elite group considered Nobel prize contenders, based on the impact of their research.
All are chemists and all work at CSIRO, the country's premier scientific research outfit, which is currently reeling from federal government funding cuts announced in the May budget.
According to an analysis of scientific research citations, released by Thomson Reuters on Thursday, the three scientists considered the country's best hope when the 2014 Nobel laureates are announced next month are Graeme Moad, San Thang and Ezio Rizzardo.
The Melbourne-based organic chemists developed new plastics and polymers that can be used in everything from solar cells and paints to cosmetics and improved drug delivery methods.
Highly regarded for work they started in the late 1980s, the trio warn the federal government's cuts to science, which saw $111 million slashed from CSIRO's funding over four years, will make it harder to do "blue-sky research", due to increased pressure to deliver results quickly.
"Because of the cuts in funding, scientists ... can only really do projects that are funded, and usually they're more about development than research," said Dr Rizzardo, a joint winner of the 2011 Prime Minister's Prize for Science.
The trio, who received the prestigious ATSE Clunies Ross Award this year, said fundamental research such as theirs may not have got off the ground in the current environment.
Dr Rizzardo warned the cuts would not be without consequence, although the full effects on the nation's research impact globally might not be seen for decades, because studies take time. Nobel prizes typically honour research and results published decades ago.
Their work developing new plastics and polymers took years to reach the market. But once it did, the application was broad and the impact significant.
Known as RAFT, the technology has been adopted by 60 companies including multinationals L'Oreal, IBM and Dulux. The CSIRO research is also an integral part of more than 500 patents. By mid-2021, royalties generated from the technology are forecast to reach $32.2 million.
Since 2002 Thomson Reuters has tipped 35 Nobel laureates, the majority winning within a few years of being named.
Key to identifying those considered most likely is an assessment of scientific papers, with papers ranked according to the number of times they are cited.
Thomson Reuters citation analyst David Pendlebury said papers cited more than 1000 times were considered highly cited, though he said it varied depending on the field of research and time since publication.
The CSIRO chemists have published more than 100 scientific papers together. One paper published in the journal Macromolecules in 1998, which first outlined the RAFT technology, has been cited more than 2,700 times. Dr Moad said it was the most cited paper for the journal.
However, Mr Pendlebury said the forecast was just that – there were no guarantees.
He pointed to Australian immunologist Jacques Miller from Melbourne's Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, who Thomson Reuters named in 2011. Professor Miller is yet to be awarded a Nobel prize.
"It's remarkable that he has not yet won one," Mr Pendlebury said.
Two of Professor Miller's papers have been cited more than 1200 times.
The Nobel prizes are announced during the week of October 6. The Nobel prize for chemistry will be announced on October 8.
While Dr Rizzardo said he would not be holding his breath on October 8, Dr Thang said he might have a glass of red wine that night.
"Then if the call comes in, I'll say cheers!" he said.