A new wave of populism threatens the social order in one or more mature liberal democracies
Democracy is already showing signs of strain in the face of economic, cultural and technological disruption. Much deeper damage is possible: social and political orders can break down. If an evenly divided country sees polarized positions harden into a winner-takes-all contest, the risk increases of political debate giving way to forms of secession or physical confrontation.
In these circumstances, a tipping point could be reached. A spiral of violence could begin, particularly if public authorities lost control and then intervened on one side with disproportionate force. In some countries—with widespread ready access to weapons or a history of political violence—armed civil conflict could erupt. In others, the state might impose its will by force, risking long-reverberating consequences: a state of emergency, the curtailment of civil liberties, even the cancellation of elections to protect public order.
The more that can be done to boost the resilience and responsiveness of democratic institutions, the less likely they will be to buckle under pressure. This might require processes of political and constitutional experimentation. It could even mean incorporating ideas from post-conflict politics into everyday democracy. We also need to better understand the democratic fissures currently being caused by the economy, by social media and by changing patterns of national identity.