Last summer the Met Office launched an online game to understand how best to present probabilities in weather forecasts. This game was collecting data for a project on perception of probabilities.
The Met Office reports game was played more than 11,000 times. A blog post presents some initial findings:
When faced with straightforward decisions, providing probabilities doesn’t confuse people.
For more complex situations, on average people are able to make better decisions using probabilities.
People make the best decisions when more detailed information on forecast uncertainty is provided.
Data analysis continues.
Met Office: Early results from our record-breaking weather game.