Past, present and future population
- the world population was under a billion in 1750 and had climbed to 2 billion by 1930.
- it was 7 billion in 2011
- UN predicts that world population will be between 10.6 and 8.1 billion by 2050
Birth rate and death rate
- birth rate is the number of children born per 1000 of the population per year
- death rate is the number of people who die per 1000 of the population per year
Natural increase of a population is the difference between the birth rate and death rates.
The average age at which people die in a population
The number of children under the age of one year who die per 1000 births in a year
The number of children that women have in their lifetime.
The demographic transition model
Poor healthcare means a high death rate, but birth rates are equally high (stable population)
Improvements in healthcare mean death rate falls but birth rate remains high (Uganda or Ethiopia)
Social and economic changes mean birth rate begins to fall (Malaysia or Egypt)
Birth rate and death rare balance, so population is stable (UK or USA)
Low fertility and very high life expectancy, so birth rate falls below death rate (Japan or Germany)
Factors to influence population structure
1. Economic growth: children as costs or assets
2. Migration: boasting the population and income
3. Conflict: war can lead to lower number of men in a country
Nigeria's population (case study)
Nigeria has more of less the same population structure today that is had in 1975, with 75% under that age of 30.
Despite its wealth from oil, most of the population is very poor. The costs of feeding this population and funding its education is very high.
The total fertility rate remains high and only 8% of married women of reproductive age use a modern method of contraception, becuase they want large families.
In twenty years time, Nigeria's very young population will be of working age. This could provide a huge boost to the economy in the future.
Reasons for managing population
1. Pressure on resources: rapid population growth could put pressure on resources such as food, water and energy
2. Overcrowding: resources like space, housing, education and health services could be over stretched by rapid population
3. Ageing: countries like Japan have problems of ageing populations so they try to encourage the birth rate
4. Skills shortages: some countries lack the skilled workers that they need which means they may encourage immigration
Singapore (anti- natalist its then pro- natalist)
When Singapore became independent it pursued and anti- natal policy.
This policy was successful and among the impact of later marriage, rising incomes and the increase of the role of women I'm society. The fertility rate fell from 3.0 in 1970 to 1.6 in 1985.
Today Singapore is worried about the population and the government now encourages earlier marriages and larger families.
Couples with more than three children pay lower taxes, have better housing and have easier access to schools.
Reasons to reduce immigration
- the unpopularity of large scale immigration among voters
- fears that immigrants accept lower pay, reducing pay for everyone
- fears that the host countries culture becomes 'swamped' by immigrants
Reasons for increasing immigration
- reduces skill shortages and helps the economy grow
- offset the problem of ageing by attracting working age immigrants
- attract low skilled, low wage workers for farming and construction