South Sudan is highly vulnerable to climate change, including flooding, droughts and, most recently, a locust infestation. Long-term climate change, like a gradual increase in temperature, and short-term changes, like increased flooding, have indirect and interlinked implications for peace and security in South Sudan.
- Flooding and droughts significantly disrupt livelihood patterns and food-security and may result in temporary displacement or longer-term migration. Such shocks exacerbate vulnerabilities and weaken the resilience and adaptive capacity of agriculture-dependent communities; they can heighten competition over natural resources, sometimes leading to cattle raiding and communal conflict.
- Unpredictable annual variation and extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect pastoralist mobility patterns and routes, and farmers’ agricultural production. These changes may exacerbate tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal conflicts.
- Female-headed households are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as most depend on agriculture to sustain their families, and rely on natural resources like firewood and water.
- Climate-related livestock losses compound ongoing rivalries, increasing the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliations, communal conflicts, displacement and the growth of new or existing armed groups.
Ongoing conflict, governance deficits, insufficient resources, knowledge gaps and low technical expertise and support have weakened the ability of the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity of South Sudan to integrate climate-related security risks into its efforts to manage communal, natural resource and land conflicts. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) have all invested in increasing knowledge and expertise in the areas of climate, peace and security, and can further assist the Government to enhance its capacity to adapt to climate change and integrate climate-related security risks into its analyses, as well as its early-warning, prevention, mitigation and preparedness efforts.
This description is excerpted from nupi.no.