It seems that neither Labor nor the Coalition have won a clear majority of seats in the House of Representatives in last week’s federal election, so Australia is to have a hung parliament. This means that a group of independents will decide which of the major parties forms government.
The message that some people are taking from the result, or lack of result, is that the electorate has become disenchanted with the major political parties. There are good reasons for people to be disenchanted with the major parties, but the electorate does not have a single mind that can become disenchanted. Even if a higher proportion of voters have voted for minor parties, it is possible to have a substantial proportion of the vote going to minor parties without a hung parliament. The hung parliament reflects the closeness of the votes for the major parties.
I think a hung parliament is the worst possible outcome we could have obtained. As I explained in an earlier post, it is difficult for electors to hold governments accountable for outcomes when parties go to the polls to seek endorsement of their policies and then, after the election, enter into negotiations to decide what policies the government will actually implement. It is possible that independents will use their power to obtain improvements in parliamentary procedures. It will be surprising, however, if we do not also see policies being adopted to advantage narrow interests – favouring regional groups or groups with particular environmental concerns – at the expense of the wider community.
Fortunately, a hung parliament happens rarely under the system of single member electorates that we have in the House of Representatives. This situation is unlikely to change even if independents take more seats from the National Party in future elections. The National Party – as a regionally based party – chooses to remain in a long-term coalition with the Liberals because it can pursue the objectives of its supporters more effectively that way rather than by exercising the balance of power. Even if the National Party was completely replaced by independents the voters who support them would generally expect their representative to favour the conservative side of politics.
It is normal for minor parties to hold the balance of power in the Senate because of the proportional representation system of voting for that chamber. This does not matter so much because of the strong tradition that governments are formed in the House of Representatives. Although minor parties that hold the balance of power in the Senate may be able to bring down governments by blocking budgets, they usually have reason to be fearful of the electoral consequences of doing this.
There is a fair chance that the next parliament will appear to work reasonably well even though the governing party does not have a clear majority. The independents and party leaders have strong incentives to appear to be trying to work well together to avoid an early election. Even the costly compromises that emerge may seem reasonable under the circumstances.
Some people may even suggest that the political system should be changed to bring about this kind of outcome all the time, as under the MMP system in New Zealand. Don’t be fooled. A hung parliament is like bad weather – it is something we have to put up with from time to time. We don’t have to like it!