The 2019 hurricane season forecast just got worse: more intense storms predicted
The Atlantic hurricane season, which has just entered its peak period, could be worse than predicted: There is a 45% chance of above-normal activity, up from the 30% outlook issued in May, federal forecasters said Thursday.
The number of predicted named storms also increased: expect 10 to 17 tropical storms, up from the nine to 15 predicted in May.
Five to nine of those named storms could become hurricanes, up from the four to eight forecasted in May.
Two to four major hurricanes are likely, a prediction unchanged in the new outlook. Major hurricanes represent Categories 3, 4 and 5 and have wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
An average season has 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
The updated outlook "is a reminder to be prepared,” said Pete Gaynor, the acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “We urge everyone to learn more about hurricane hazards and prepare now, ahead of time.”
The six-month hurricane season began June 1. Peak season began Aug. 1 and will last through October.
Two named storms have formed already this year. Subtropical Storm Andrea formed south of Bermuda in May. Category 1 Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana in July before weakening to a tropical storm.
It is the fifth consecutive year that hurricane activity began prior to the official June start.
The worsened outlook comes after an already-weak El Niño faded. El Niños send warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean water toward South America. This movement generates strong winds from the southwest, which move east to the Atlantic and prevent hurricanes from forming.
“El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The seawater warming characteristic of El Niño weather patterns occurs naturally every few years, but experts say climate change is making El Niños more frequent and intense.
Last year’s hurricane season produced 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, which caused more than $50 billion in damage.
That included Hurricane Florence, the wettest tropical cyclone recorded in the Carolinas, and Hurricane Michael, which made landfall along the Florida panhandle and was the first Category 5 storm to hit the contiguous United States since 1992.
The next named storm will be Chantal, followed by Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto.
The updated outlook does not predict where tropical storms would make landfall.