El Niño may not be strong this winter according to new data in the last week. El Niño not becoming strong will have big implications on Michigan's winter.
El Niño is when the Pacific Ocean water between South America and Australia warms up more than normal. El Niño occurs in an irregular cycle of every three to ten years. This spring it appeared as though El Niño would develop and become strong.
Now the latest data from last week shows that water temperatures may have already peaked, meaning El Niño will not continue to strengthen as we head into winter.
The graphic shows the sea surface temperature anomalies for a large part of the Pacific Ocean between South America and Australia. Notice the orange represents water temperatures above normal, a condition needed for El Niño. Also notice in the past two months the water has started to cool.
If El Niño becomes strong during our winter, Michigan has a 70 percent chance of warmer and drier than normal winter weather.
El Niño appears like it is not going to be strong. If El Niño is only weak to moderate in strength, it doesn't have any influence on Michigan's winter weather. So there may be no warming effect this winter from El Niño.
The abnormal cold pocket of air is still in Canada, and may again be the dominant feature in our winter weather. A strong El Niño had the chance of holding that cold air at bay up in Canada.
I think we will be able to tell what our winter may be like by late September. If the cold pocket in Canada continues to cool at an abnormal rate as we head into fall, it may be here earlier than normal.
I'll keep watching the cold and let you know what I see.
If you want some good summer news, the second half of next week into the following week actually looks warm with highs in the 80s. Imagine that, a week long stretch of summer weather.
If you have questions or comment ask them below.
MLive Meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has been forecasting Michigan weather for more than 20 years. He's been chief meteorologist at three television news stations in Michigan, and he's an avid gardener and hunter. Email him at email@example.com and find him on Facebook at facebook.com/mark.torregrossa and Twitter @weathermanmark