Study calculates development of fish stocks
© Catriona Clemmesen-Bockelmann, GEOMAR
This conclusion was reached by researchers from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and University of Helsinki.
In a recent study, economists, fishery and evolutionary biologists from the two universities calculated how trends in fishing and aquaculture would develop by 2048 and beyond for fish stocks like sea bass, salmon, cod and tuna.
These four species were chosen as they were the most essential fish species for North American and European markets: Salmon and seabass are derived from fish farming, while the cod and tuna are caught in the wild.
Besides biological factors, technological progress in fishing, the rising global demand for fish and the growing supply of fish from aquaculture were also considered.
Lead author Professor Dr. Martin Quaas, at the University of Kiel said that they wanted to get a realistic forecast of how the wild fish stocks would develop if the biological and economic factors were considered. Over the course of the research, the team concluded that economic development had a much stronger impact than previously expected.
Co-author Thorsten Reusch from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel added in German, "Even if we start with very optimistic figures and increasing amounts of vegetable protein, the pressure to feed the population using fish stocks would be enormous and lead to their collapse."
However, a sustainable use of wild fish stocks could be achieved if there is a substantial improvement in the effectiveness of fisheries management. According to the researchers, an institutional change would be the only solution, as it would significantly bring about this effectiveness.
The recent reform of the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union is a step in the right direction. One of the reform’s directives was the introduction of multi-annual management plans for other stocks.
The researchers also proposed that urgent action was needed in the area of deep-sea fishing, by improving the international coordination involved when defining and enforcing quotas.
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