The killing of dozens of Coptic Christian protesters during the recent turmoil in Cairo is one of the by-products of the Arab spring – and, unfortunately, a predictable one. Secular dictatorships such as those of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, and even of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gadaffi in Libya were a bloody nightmare for political dissidents. But Christian minorities felt protected from Islamic persecution and were allowed to practise their religious faith. In exchange, respecting a tacit compromise, they stood at a distance from politics. This is known in the Vatican as "the panda syndrome", after the name of those inoffensive, vegetarian bears protected by Chinese authorities, to prevent their extinction. "But when a species has to be protected, it means it's already disappearing," points out the Egyptian Jesuit Samir Khalil Samir.
Samir is an expert. Pope Benedict XVI asked him to organise the synod of Middle Eastern bishops in October 2010 in Rome. And he knows that Christian "pandas" in his land and in all the Arab world are fighting a desperate battle for survival. That's why many local Catholic bishops greeted the revolts in the Maghreb and elsewhere around the Mediterranean with open scepticism and concern. They foresaw that political progress could be matched with religious regress, and a worsening of their condition as non-Islamic citizens.
This is what seems to have happened. The new ruling classes differ from one country to the other but they tend to have in common a stronger Islamic identity. Their more extremist factions push to punish Christian minorities for what is perceived as a double original sin: being allies of former hated regimes, and being "agents of western values", although they have been living there for 2,000 years or so. The result is that the prospect of their extinction as a community is growing.
It has happened already in Iraq, due to the "Anglo-American war" started in 2003. At that time, the number of Chaldeans, the Christian Iraqis, was between 800,000 and 1.4 million. In 2009-2010, it was estimated are between 400,000 and 500,000, and rapidly decreasing. Cairo's violent repression shows a similar process is under way in Egypt as well, where they still represent roughly 10% of the population.
This represents a georeligious tragedy for the Vatican, which always tried to maintain a frustrating dialogue with Islamic authorities, and which right up to the end persisted in invoking a pacific coexistence in the area.
But it is also a geopolitical failure for the west, and paradoxically for Islam as well. Christian communities have been historically a bridge between western and Arab culture; and a factor of moderation and mutual understanding between the two worlds. Their dramatic decline signals the collapse of this symbolic bridge, and the growing strength of an "Arab street" fed with consumerism but also with prejudices and a widespread hostile mood against Christians.
For the Holy See, the attempt to obtain reciprocity on the thorny issue of religious faith has always been difficult, and in some cases brutally refused. When some years ago Pope John Paul II asked Saudi Arabia's then top ruler if a Catholic church could be built there, the answer was a blunt "no": his country was Muhammad's holy land. The Polish pontiff tried to reply that in Rome a mosque had been erected, but the subtle and unanswerable retort was: "In Rome – not inside the Vatican City."