In Ukraine as in previous major conflicts artillery is the biggest killer on the battlefield, accounting for perhaps 80% of casualties on both sides. But while Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, they appear to be doing more damage even though, with some notable exceptions, they are using the same weapons as their Russian opponents. How is this possible?
The Numbers Game
Russia has enjoyed a huge advantage in artillery since the start of the invasion with roughly twice as many guns and MRLs, and more importantly, massive stockpiles of ammunition. Figures vary wildly, and have changed over time, but all put Russian substantially ahead in terms of shells fired.
In November NBC quoted US officials estimating Russian expenditure of 20,000 rounds per day against 4,000-7,000 for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in February that Russia was firing around four times as many shells as Ukraine. In March, Spanish newspaper El Pais quoted EU insider sources as saying that Russia was firing 40-50,000 rounds per day, compared to 5,000-6,000 for Ukraine, while Estonia (which has supplied shells to Ukraine) estimated that Russia was firing 20,000-60,000 per day compared to 2,000-7,000 from Ukraine.
So Russia is likely firing something between four and nine times as many shells as Ukraine.
And yet, Russia has suffered much higher casualties. To take just one figure, recently leaked Pentagon documents suggest 189,500-223,000 Russians killed or injured compared to 124,500-131,000 Ukrainians or 1.4 to 1.8 to 1.
Much of this can be accounted for by the fact that Russia’s campaign has largely been on the offensive, while Ukraine has largely been on the defensive. Yet, for long periods we have seen largely static warfare. Russia’s advantage in artillery should have been reflected in casualty figures, but this has not happened. UK defense think tank RUSI describes the Russian army as “an artillery army with a lot of tanks,” that is, one that depends on massed artillery for its striking power. In the current conflict, they appear to be outgunned by a smaller force.
Ukraine Is Killing More By Fighting Smarter
The solution to this paradox lies in the different ways that the two armies use their artillery. While Russia has stuck mainly to Soviet doctrine of massed area fires, Ukraine uses artillery fire as a long-range sniper weapon to pick off individual targets. This has been made possible with the widespread use of two innovations: small drones for artillery spotting, coupled with cheap tablet computers running software like Nettle system to direct fire.
Back in 2014, Ukrainian volunteer organization Army-SOS set out to use its technical skill to help the military. They initially helped soldiers fly and support drones, but soon found the biggest problem was using the data gathered by drone operators efficiently. So they developed Kropyva (“Nettle”) proprietary intelligence mapping software, which can run on any Android tablet.
Nettle is supplied as a tactical system compatible with NATO-standard secure communications and is used from divisional command down to individual vehicles. It maps battle lines and targets and calculates artillery fire missions. It is specifically designed to work with drones, receiving data and using it to calculate the adjustment needed. The gunner changes angle and azimuth accordingly, and shells land on target.
Several other Ukraine-developed software packages — GIS Arta, ComBat Vision, and the major Delta battlefield management system – are also used to share data, locating targets and directing fire.
Ukrainian forces use a wide variety of small drones, including several locally-made military-grade types such as the Leleka-100 and Spectator-M for artillery spotting, as well as thousands of DJ consumer quadcopters. The latter has a range of just a few kilometers and a flight endurance of perhaps half an hour, but their low cost means they are expendable and universally available.
In March 2022, Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the office of President Zelensky, told the media that a standard platoon defensive position took normally took 60-90 artillery rounds to destroy, but with drone-guided fire this was reduced to just 9 rounds, and that drones had been supplied to all artillery units. This suggests an improvement of a factor of 7-10, which is roughly what we see in the ratios of artillery shells: casualties above.
Previously, a vehicle, especially in a dug-in, camouflaged position or behind buildings or trees might not be detected until enemy forces were close by. Drone observation changes this, with small drones buzzing overhead spotting everything below in real time – not just vehicles but even individual soldiers. Hiding behind a ridge or hill no longer helps. Given suitable software and communications which Nettle supplies, every potential target can be geolocated precisely, the co-ordinates passed to artillery, and rounds walked on to it.
A vast number of Ukrainian drone videos show this process in operation. In previous conflicts, concentrated artillery fire was needed to damage armored units. Now individual guns can take on the same task. In July a Ukrainian soldier with the callsign ‘Balu’ told Ukraine’s Defence Express how his unit faced a platoon of dug-in Russian BMPs which they had been unable to destroy with direct fire from ATGMs. He says that with the aid of Nettle, artillery guided by a drone knocked out all three in quick succession.
Now Everything Is Artillery
This approach is not limited to traditional indirect fire artillery. Increasingly drone-enabled Ukrainian tanks are acting in an indirect fire role, engaging Russian armor beyond normal combat ranges and beyond line of sight. In August 2022, a video posted on social media showed a Ukrainian T-64BV destroying a Russian tank at a claimed range of 6.5 miles, which would make it the longest ever tank vs. tank kill. This required some twenty 125mm projectiles, but the Russian could not fire back to the ‘duel’ was entirely one-sided.
#Ukraine: What is possibly the longest tank-to-tank kill ever – a Ukrainian T-64BV tank crew reportedly managed to destroy a Russian tank from a distance of 10600 meters in indirect fire mode using 125mm HE-FRAG projectiles. As claimed, it took 20 projectiles to finish the tank. pic.twitter.com/Rv05uTJroC
— ???????? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) August 31, 2022
While video evidence may not be conclusive, there is more evidence at present for Ukrainian tanks being used for indirect than direct fire. The same tactic has also been observed with Ukrainian BMPs firing 73mm guns aided by drones and Nettle, and even BTR-4 with 30mm automatic cannon.
Older, supposedly obsolete weapons are being transformed into effective indirect-fire platforms. Videos show 100mm T-12 Rapira anti-tank guns dating from 1961 in this role, and even a T-12 mounted on an MT-LB tracked vehicles. The 73mm SPG-9 recoilless rifle (from 1962), again originally a direct-fire anti-tank weapon, is being also used for precision indirect fire, as is the AGS-17 Plamya 30mm automatic grenade launcher. In this latter case, there does not seem to be any software, just the drone operator standing next to the gunner directing them, or in some cases the gunner observing the drone feed directly to adjust fire.
The pattern is consistent. Ukraine is rolling out drone-guided indirect fire at every level as rapidly as possible and to significant effect.
Russian forces are also using drone-directed fire, but suffer from a comparative shortage of drones, and, until now, a lack of support from senior commanders. While artillery units have long operated Orlan-10 drones, these are in short supply and only at battery level or above. Now there are signs that drone-directed fire is being adopted on a wider basis, even down to individual vehicles.
“We are learning to arc fire,” says a crewman of a T-90M tank in a video issued by the Russian MoD in February 2023. “The range of fire varies from 4 to 12 kilometers. Everything is done with the help of a drone, which monitors how a shell flies and makes adjustments in a bid to achieve maximum precision. This is a relatively new manner of shelling, which has not been practiced before.”
The difference is that the Russian system appears to use expensive military drones and software, whereas the Ukrainians have adopted commercial drones, consumer electronics and software from local start-ups at high speed.
The Future of Artillery in Ukraine and Beyond
It is difficult to predict the lasting impact of these developments. Russia has recently had more success with jamming Ukrainian consumer drones and limiting their ability to direct fire, but jam-resistant alternatives are becoming available.
If the trend continues, then the days of artillery batteries blasting away blindly at map co-ordinates may be over. And direct fire, in general, may become increasingly rare as targets are engaged beyond visual range. More advanced networked communications will see every shooter connected to multiple remote sensors. Small and increasingly autonomous drones will proliferate, and fires will be directed with ever greater speed and accuracy.
It currently looks as though big data may be more powerful than big guns, and future conflicts may be determined more by the available drone fleet and its supporting software than the number of artillery barrels. But the current conflict may still have much more to teach us.
David Hambling is a London-based journalist, author and consultant specializing in defense technology with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED and others. His books include “Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-tech World” (2005) and “Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world” (2015). He has been closely watching the continued evolution of small military drones. Follow him @David_Hambling.
April 22, 2023 at 7:28 pm
Ukro artillery is being supplemented by western intelligence and field support, so no surprise.
Recent leaks reveal US totally knows everything going on at the ground clashes. Including how many missiles or shells used, how many still remaining and their re-supply. How many duds, how many casualties.
Thus, to counter all those problems or issues, russia needs to bring out its top ace, tactical nukes !!!
April 22, 2023 at 10:24 pm
We are slow-walking the help Ukraine needs to defend against hundreds of glide bombs decimating Ukrainian forces every week.
Without fighter jets Ukraine may be doomed, another Western ally betrayed by the West just as we betrayed our Afghan allies. WW3 and our annihilation will follow.
Our self-deterrence is failing us and our allies. Shame on us
April 23, 2023 at 5:21 am
All the best artillery and geolocating from the west is nothing compared to the mushroom capability of tactical weapons.
Russia NEEDS TO USE TACTICAL nukes now before US war dept a.k.a. pentagon decides to send its hypersonic rockets to europe.
Once that happens, it would surely be game over for russia and the donbass.
Right now there’s a very brief window of opportunity for russia to ‘make hay while the sun shines.’
US is a little behind in the development of hypersonic attack systems for the moment, or for now.
But that’s going to change very very soon and as such there’s simply no time to lose.
NOW IS THE TIME TO NUKE THEM !
April 23, 2023 at 6:03 am
This whole article is written on the premise that Ukraine isn’t losing that many people. Which all western writers seem to be doing: talking down the real numbers. After which no western journalist seems to be chasing. Where is journalism these days?
Remember when Zelensky himself said last June, that there were 60-100 men dying every day, and “around 500 wounded”?
We all know, how Zelensky en his officials continually lie and talk down their own numbers.
So… let’s say, number of dead, 200 a day; number of wounded, 700 a day. 420 (days of war) times 900 is 378,000.
This number changes the whole narrative of all those stories about effectiveness.
April 23, 2023 at 8:36 am
@403Forbidden — What hypersonic missiles? The West (and China) lags Russia by 10 years of development. Counseling nukes is insane. They will not change the battle, and if nukes are used, better to aim for Washington (or London or Brussels) than for Ukraine.
@John — Yes, bring on the fighter jets. See how they fare, with ubiquitous Air Defense and missiles coming up their ass, for the first time ever US plains operating in an environment with operational Air Defense.
April 23, 2023 at 8:50 am
Is it not obvious that your indirect tank-fire examples are just a way of compensating for a lack of self-propelled artillery? And not an example of superior drone use?
At the front, UA soldiers complain about Russia killing their drones all the time. You don’t think Russians are using drones? Or they lack the software? They are stupid?
The artillery rounds give a first order indication for the casualty ratios, since upward of 85% of casualties are artillery. It is completely disingenuous to suggest that judicious use of shells explains a 16-fold advantage in accuracy (4× less shells; 4× more casualties). Obviously an analyst would by now be querying the accuracy of the premise, these casualty ratios for which there is no evidence. Also mentioned in the leaked papers is the 1:7 advantage the Russia side has in casualties.
And is Russia on the offensive? Everywhere they seem to be satisfied with holding the line and waiting on Ukrainian counter-offensives and reconnaissance missions, rotating troops and fresh reserves, hitting UAF whenever they appear, forced to perform by their puppeteer strings in the West.
Russian strategy is clear — take as few casualties as possible, and grind down the enemy until there is no consequential resistance. Take ground by slowly and methodically mowing down the forward lines with saturation bombardment and flame-throwers, before clearing and seizing positions.
April 23, 2023 at 10:04 am
Aren’t you disgusted to lie so openly?
Are you not afraid of God? Lying is a sin.
Recently, the largest intelligence leak since the time of Snowden, for this disclosure of classified data, a regular military man will receive several life sentences, this leak says that Ukraine’s losses are 8 to 1, 7 to 1 in favor of Russia. I repeat, this is not a dubious journalist, or an anonymous source, this is US intelligence data.
But you continue to openly lie, broadcasting the Ukrainian talking heads of Ukraine.
Bosda The Raccoon Philosopher
April 23, 2023 at 10:13 am
No go sit in the corner.
And no pie for you, after supper.
April 23, 2023 at 11:00 am
Great article pointing out the weakness of the russian army and the Ukrainian ability to adapt, develop and implement an assault on invading forces in a true David and Goliath encounter.
These in-depth stories revealing russian inadequacy never fails to bring out their trolls, demonstrating the deep fear and realization that a total loss with the accompanying humiliation is in their future.
April 23, 2023 at 11:49 am
Reporting on this war is so contaminated by propaganda that all reports must be taken with a grain of salt. A war of attrition is also a propaganda war.
April 23, 2023 at 12:52 pm
Yes, when you have less, you maximize what you have.
You’ll see videos of fields pock marked with shell craters from Russian barrages of artillery.
My impression is a lot of shells didn’t do much more than make a crater.
But the kill ratio, as claimed in the “Discord Leaks” is 7 to 1… seven Ukrainians killed for every Russian.
So, while I can certainly believe the Ukrainians are doing the most they can with limited resources. The overall picture is of overwhelming Russian fire power.
So, when 80% of casualties are from artillery… and one side dominates the amount of shells fired by a wide margin… even if they have less accuracy… at the end of the day… guess who comes out on top.
That’s called “battle of attrition.”
Russia is winning that battle.
This kind of article seems to be “whistling past the graveyard.”
Bakhmut still holds out… but almost every analyst says Bakhmut will fall.
And at the moment that is where the rubber meets the road.
Assuming Ukraine does eventually carry out some kind of offensive… a moving army has a harder time setting up artillery and being accurate.
Sure, it can be done… but stationary defensive firing positions are far easier to be accurate with as opposed to constantly moving forward and resetting up in a new firing position.
I’ll add the Ukrainian gunners are getting better, more accurate with practice & experience… “gotta make everyone count.”
Will that be enough? The Russians are getting better, too.
So, we’ll see.
April 23, 2023 at 2:35 pm
We do not know the casualty figures.
Each side has multi tiered artillery. They both use massed inaccurate and more accurate gps and UAV guided artillery as well as multiple launch rocket type systems. “If” there is a difference in the overall kill ratio it has to do with other factors such as better intel, better communications, better countermeasures, number of rounds fired, doctrine, dug in not dug in, offensive or defensive positions, ability to coordinate, shoot, and move quickly, which has allot to do with training and technology.
You cannot trust leaks anyone else with the figures, we just do not know.
April 23, 2023 at 9:18 pm
LoL, the Israelis make mincemeat of Russian SAM systems. They have done so for years. Using US made fighter jets.
The Russians are so desperate to keep the Israelis from destroying their S400 in Syria that they simply dont fire when Israel bombs the Syrian and Iranian installations in Syria at will.
Russian made SAMs Syria has, all the way up to the S300, are no match for Israel’s planes, Electronic Warfare, or tactics.
One time an F16 was shot down out of literally thousands of flights by the IAF into Syria. And that was pilot error. The IAF studied the incident, and within 2 weeks they resumed flights over Syria. Hundreds of flights have taken place since.
Furthermore, you and Jim falling for the notion that the Ukrainians are losing 7 people for every Russian makes you incredibly gullible. While there are some documents that appear authentic in those leaks, Others appear doctored.
You and Jim appear to have fallen for doctored info.
That doesnt surprise me. Both of you, like several other livestock from the Russian troll farm that post here…are clearly desperate to fool yourself into believing Russia is doing well.
Angry drunk Russian bear with balalaika
April 23, 2023 at 11:13 pm
Apparently, logic is not the strong side of Western experts, in general.
According to the information of secret documents of American intelligence leaked into the Network, the Ukrainian army lost from 124.5 thousand to 131 thousand people killed and wounded in its military. And this data is five times more than what Kiev officially recognizes.
At the beginning of spring, Politico, citing estimates of US officials, reported about 100,000 dead ukroboeviks, where most of the losses fell on Bakhmut. A similar figure a little earlier, before the publication in the newspaper, was also called by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
But the Israeli and Turkish media, citing information from the Israeli special service “Mossad”, reported that by mid-January, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 157 thousand dead and 234 thousand wounded.
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov and other Ukrainian politicians refute you, Western experts: they claim that the armed formations of Ukraine before 02/24/2022. had 400 thousand people; called 1 million; and now 1 million. The answer of mathematics: 400 thousand people disappeared, that the armed formations of Ukraine! Ukrainian General Muzhenko: According to his calculations, the number of Russian troops involved in the SVO is 526 thousand people. Conclusion: as of today, 1 million Ukrainian troops are opposing 526 thousand Russian troops (or vice versa). Western experts repeat that Ukrainian troops are losing less, 7, 10, 49 times, while. that they release shells several times less, shoot less, are ridiculous. According to my personal calculations, the situation is reversed, but not 7, 10, 49 times, but 4 times the losses of Ukrainian troops are higher.
April 24, 2023 at 10:09 am
Stop peddling the Corrupt News nonsense. Ukraine is not winning, Ukraine is not killing more Russians. Ukraine is a lost cause and has not surrendered do to NATO Forces secretly fighting. We need to stop before this leads to WWIII
April 24, 2023 at 2:17 pm
This article is mostly fake; the defense industry in the US (military-industrial complex, à- la Eisenhower) is making hay while the sun shines. And the Morgan-Stanley’s of the world in addition have a lot to look forward to, if the war continues, in “rebuilding” loans.
“You can fool some of the people all the time”…
April 24, 2023 at 4:03 pm
The propaganda that Ukraine is winning continues. New numbers say that Russia has really only lost 16k men… Not the hundreds of thousands continually mentioned by the paid for press. Ukraine is being decimated in a war that the US, NATO and the corrupt criminals in Ukraine wanted all along.War is the ability to lauder money from the tax payer to back to the people who started it and the criminals in Ukraine. Lets not forget that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in all of Europe.And NO they are NOT a democracy. Not even close.
April 24, 2023 at 4:40 pm
@All the Russian paid and freelance trolls
We have been reading your absurd comments for a year now, where you paddle infotainment from RU TV propaganda shows about how the Russian army is totally destroying the Ukrainian army. You talk about hundreds of thousands of killed and many more injured. And sure, you probably really really want to believe it. If you guys are to be believed there should hardly be any Ukrainian soldiers left alive. Certainly, mostly raw recruits and for sure in a totally demoralized state. But how come then, that the rag tag demoralized battered remnants of the Ukrainian army, are able to stop the proclaimed offensive by the mighty and superior Russian army in its tracks? The Russians have barely made any advance at all, and the little gain they have made, they paid a hefty prize for.
A little tip for those of you who pretends to be westerners. Some of your claims are so outlandish that it’s hard to believe your sources does not contain backwards letteяs. You would be hard pressed to find credible western sources for much of this BS. Perhaps a few alt right/openly fascist media in the west that are happy to support their Russian brethren will parrot many talking points. Pretty revealing by the way, your only supporters in the west are fascists, and a few communists out of old habit.
You guys should instead read what ISW writes about the state of the Russian army i Ukraine in their April 23 update. According to ISW the Russian army is in poor shape and is ill prepared for a Ukrainian counter offensive. Let’s hope the Ukrainians have received enough equipment and training to take advantage of this fortunate situation.
April 24, 2023 at 5:27 pm
I don’t know how you know me, or my sources. I don;t read newspapers, for one. I’ll try common sense here, please, in a very brief way.
Russia and China are hooked up now, more than previously in history. China plays, not a long game, but a VERY long game. I am sure Russia benefits from this mentor approach in this new Sino-Russian alliance.
This war is one of attrition. 150 million people in Russia. 42 million in Ukraine.
The people Russia loses will be replaced. The ones Ukraine loses seals their future.
This war is won or lost next decade.
The USA cannot afford to throw hundreds of $billions (more) away in this economy, toward this water-torture of a conflict.
April 24, 2023 at 7:30 pm
The ISW is a committed interventionist/hawkish think tank staffed with committed interventionists who don’t mind “steering the truth” where it needs to go. I’ve a little experience as an officer in the United States armed forces, and I’ll telling you straight up, the Ukrainians are being decimated and attritted. So to are the Russians to be sure, but the Russians can take that pain indefinitely. The math doesn’t lie. The Ukrainians have lost almost the entirety of the combat power of their prewar armed forces, and are fighting with new conscript forces.
Fortunately, the population here in the United States is awakening to the false narrative being parroted by the same fools and grifters who got us into Iraq and kept us in Afghanistan, and are opposing this foolhardy intervention more and more. Perhaps enough time is left to stop this cabal from further destroying American strategic power and ability to project force. The last year has seen an empowerment of America’s enemies, not a reduction of their strength.
April 25, 2023 at 4:09 am
You believe the Leaks numbers on Russian casualties – HILARIOUS!!!!
April 25, 2023 at 5:18 pm
Yes, it’s a war of attrition, but if it was only a matter of population size, then world history would look quite different. You seem to believe that if the Ukrainians and Russian attrit at the same rate then Russia will outlast Ukraine. That’s where you are wrong. Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival and that shows in their higher morale and will to endure losses. Russia is fighting a war of imperial conquest and that shows in the low morale and will to fight in their forces and population. Whether Russia win or lose this war, life will not change for ordinary Russians. Only Russian oligarchs and the bloated ego of Russian imperialists will suffer if they lose. And Putin knows it, that is why he hesitate to call the first mobilization, and that is why he is hesitating to call the second now, despite an urgent need of more cannon fodder.
You also mentioned China, and I accept that they can be a wild card in this war. But for now, they have refused to support Russia in a material way, despite Putin’s begging. So, the big picture is that the West with its ca 8-900 mill people and 50% of world economy is mostly united behind Ukraine. Providing support and gearing up production of equipment and ammunition. The longer this war lasts, the more outgunned and doomed the Russian oligarchic, corrupt, low tech and inefficient economy will be.
This war will not end because Ukraine runs out of troops, this war will end when one side can’t stomach the losses anymore, maybe assisted by a decisive offensive action. Time will tell if the Russian people are willing to die in their millions for Putin’s dream of becoming the equal of Catherine the Great, I think not.
And by the way, USA in not spending much on this war. The numbers you dream up is purely constructed. Nearly all equipment sent to Ukraine was paid for decades ago, and much of the stuff was near the end of its intended life. Also, the equipment that is sent, was made to fight the soviets, so now that it is used to fight imperialist Russia, that’s a great way to make sure the investment doesn’t go to waste.
ISW uses open sources to construct their maps and daily reports on how the war is going, go ahead and look, plenty of Russian nationalists in their references. And so far, in retrospect, they have given us a fair assessment of the progress of the war, Russia’s problems and Ukraine’s chances. Remember when all you Russians were predicting Ukraine imminent defeat and that they would not be able to push back Russia before Kharkiv and Kherson offences? Well, ISW had a more positive analysis, and we all know who was right. Still, you ask me to trust your baseless assessments over ISWs well-founded and sourced one because you have “a little experience in US forces”? I also have a little experience in armed forces, and I do not believe it makes me uniquely qualified to access Russian or Ukrainian level of attrition. And since I must rely on others, I go for an open-sourced institute with a good track record so far, over your Russian propaganda sources.
And no, the Russian cannot take the pain indefinitely, se my reply to bubbabird above.
I agree that the American people was duped into going to war in Iraq, and more that Americas own losses, that has resulted in horrible suffering for the people of Iraq, far beyond the horrors Saddam was able to make his people endure. But two wrongs do not make a right. Ukraine is defending themselves from an imperialist neighbor that seeks to destroy their nation and their very identity. If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, Putin will feel emboldened and hungry for more. It is morally right to support Ukraine, but it is also strategically a wise investment that will pay off in the form of a more stable and secure Europe.
April 25, 2023 at 7:26 pm
$120B is not dreamed up. It is official and debited already from the budget.
A long explanation you had there, I followed some of it. BTW forget about ISW and the great war wager, Gen. “Blow them all up” Jack Keane—I listened to his rants on Fox News before I stopped watching the channel.
The Ukraine conflict indeed has lots of pain-it is being fought in the Ukraine, is it not?
It is like seeing how long one can hold a beach ball underwater…
With the US and EU support (EU is there for only a very short while, I’ll wager, until the fall freeze), I predicted in the previous post the slaughter will go on until next decade, if other conflicts are the measure. Until there is a “Peace Accord”.