For a few months, one of the stories that keeps echoing around South Korea is about the possibility that Mount Baektu, the dormant volcano straddling the border of North Korea and China, might erupt again.
The mountain is a Korean icon. Even though it’s unreachable to South Koreans (unless they vacation in China’s Jilin province), images of the mountain are widely used in the country.
It’s portrayed as the birthplace of the Korean race, though that downplays the peninsula’s melting-pot history, and recent news accounts even call it “divine.”
Baektu last erupted in 1903. Yoon Sung-hyo, professor of geology at Busan National University, triggered the latest speculation a few months ago when he said a new eruption there could be bigger than the one in Iceland that disrupted air travel between Europe and North America earlier this year.
Earlier this week, the Unification Ministry said it might form a task force to study the prospects of an eruption at Baektu.
And the subject came up at a meeting in Jeju on Wednesday of meteorologists from Japan, China and South Korea. The main topic of that meeting was how to monitor earthquake activity. A Chinese scientist said the country keeps a close eye on the mountain, called Changbai Shan in China, and sees little reason to worry.
We asked Mr. Yoon to set the record straight.
The Wall Street Journal: What are the signs that lead you to believe Mt. Baektu might erupt?
Dr. Yoon: There was a surge in eruption signs in July 2002, such as a volcanic earthquake, earth cracks, withering plants and trees, and expansion of the surface of the earth near Heaven Lake. Since July 2002, the signs have been less active. But we need to urgently set up a task force to closely watch the movement of magma.
WSJ: What would be the effect of a big eruption on South Korea?
Dr. Yoon: It will depend on the size of the eruption. There won’t be any direct effect. But it will cause some indirect effects, such as disruption on air traffic and a surge in the cost of air transportation. There is a possibility that ashes can fly towards Japan.
WSJ: Wouldn’t North Korea and China be affected much more?
Dr. Yoon: North Korea and China will be directly affected. The ash will be raining from the sky, and it will cover the earth as deep as a few meters. Magma will be running through the earth at 500 degrees Celsius at the speed of 180 kilometers an hour. Just like what happened in Indonesia a few months ago, the hot running magma will burn everything to ashes. Also if the eruption happens below the lake, it can cause a great tsunami that might lead to a flood on the Chinese side. The flood will include a great amount of ash.
WSJ: Bottom line, what’s your forecast at the moment for a Baektu eruption?
Dr. Yoon: Nobody knows precisely when it will happen. I want to emphasize that we need to closely monitor the magma movement so that we can estimate how big an eruption will be, and when it will happen. A consistent monitoring will save us some possibly big damage.
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