Iran announced yesterday that it had successfully launched its
first domestically produced satellite into orbit using an
Iranian-built rocket. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proclaimed in a
televised speech that "the official presence of the Islamic
Republic was registered in space." This technological milestone,
combined with Iran's accelerating efforts to enrich the uranium
required for a nuclear weapon, is extremely worrisome. Only
ten other countries have successfully launched satellites into
orbit. Iran's new satellite-launching capability demonstrates rapid
progress toward developing a long-range intercontinental ballistic
missile (ICBM)--an advancement that would greatly extend Tehran's
military reach. Iran's growing missile capability strengthens the
case for making missile defense a high priority for the United
States and its allies.
Message from the Mullahs
Iran's satellite launch was timed to send messages to several
audiences. Occurring amid festivities celebrating the 30th
anniversary of Iran's 1979 revolution, this launch should serve to
boost the prestige of Iran's unpopular regime in the eyes of both
its people and neighboring countries.
Yesterday's satellite launch using the Safir-2 ("ambassador")
rocket also occurred the day before a meeting in Germany of
diplomats representing the United States, Britain, France, Germany,
Russia, and China that will focus on coordinating multilateral
efforts to dissuade Iran from continuing its suspicious nuclear
activities. By engaging in such missile rattling and stressing its
technological independence>, Tehran trumpeted its continued defiance
of the United Nations Security Council resolutions--the very
resolutions that the diplomatic meeting in Germany is designed to
The Path to Space
The Safir-2 rocket is a two-stage rocket. According to analysis
by outside technicians, if it were reconfigured as a ballistic
missile with a light warhead, the Safir-2 would have a range of
roughly 1,500 miles. This range is sufficient to reach most
parts of the greater Middle East, including Egypt, Israel, Saudi
Arabia, and Turkey. Yet, the Safir-2 is not the most powerful
rocket in the Iranian inventory: the Shahab-3 is more powerful.
Therefore, the critical lesson from yesterday's launch, and one the
Obama Administration and Congress should bear in mind, is that Iran
is beginning to master the science of staging rockets to deliver
larger payloads to longer distances.
Using a Safir-2 to launch a satellite into orbit marks an
important milestone in Iran's quest to develop an ICBM capable of
delivering a nuclear weapon to all of Europe and at least portions
of the U.S. It also represents a significant step forward in
Iranian efforts to use space for purposes hostile to the U.S. and
its allies while placing some U.S. satellites at potential risk.
A Disturbing Question
The Iranian launch also raises a disturbing question about the
U.S. intelligence community's controversial 2007 National
Intelligence Estimate that concluded that Iran ceased its nuclear
weapons program in 2003.
Assuming the intelligence community's assertion that Iran has
terminated its nuclear weapons program is accurate, yesterday's
launch makes it clear that Tehran's missile program is running well
ahead of its nuclear weapons program. However, it stretches
credulity to assume that Iran is investing its scarce resources so
heavily to develop and deploy long-range ballistic missiles merely
to arm them with conventional warheads. The disturbing question
that the intelligence community needs to answer is: What kind of
warheads will Iran put on long-range missiles and how do they plan
to acquire these warheads?
On the policy level, the Obama Administration and Congress need
to make it clear to the American people that the U.S. will not
respond to Iranian development and deployment of long-range
ballistic missiles by continuing the Cold War policy of mutual
vulnerability to attack. To purposely keep the American people and
those of U.S. allies vulnerable to Iranian attack--especially if
done so in service to a new application of Cold War deterrence
policy--would be enormously destabilizing and morally bankrupt.
This is particularly the case in the context of President
Obama's explicit promise to prevent modernization of the U.S.
nuclear force and eventually abolish it. The Iranian launch makes it
clear that the U.S. must take defensive steps. Continuing to
develop and field effective ballistic missile defenses for the
protection of the U.S. and its allies must be at the top of the
U.S. agenda. Such prioritizing begins with a clear commitment to
honor agreements to field long-range missile interceptors in Poland
and missile defense radar in the Czech Republic. Ultimately, this
"protect and defend strategy" will require defensive systems
capable of downing Iranian missiles in the earliest stage of
flight--the so-called boost phase--from space.
A Wake-Up Call
Iran's satellite launch is another wake-up call that underscores
the urgency of building effective missile defenses and ratcheting
up international pressure to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Just as the 1957 launch of the Soviet Union's Sputnik satellite
signaled surprisingly rapid technological progress that eventually
translated into a greater military threat, Iran's satellite launch
is a harbinger of future dangers emanating from the volatile Middle
East. The Obama Administration must not ignore the warning signs
that Iran's hostile regime continues to transmit.
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James Phillips is Senior Research
Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, and Baker Spring is F.M. Kirby
Research Fellow in National Security Policy, in the Douglas and
Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.