The deadly bush fires raging right now in southern Australia should come as no surprise to readers of our special report on water this past June. As Dave Serchuk reported, bush fires are not the only disasters stemming from massive droughts the continent has been dealing with over the past seven years.
Australia is running out of water.
Large swaths of the continent have experienced drought conditions since 2000, and in the eastern part of the country, where most people live, the last seven years have been the driest on record. Agricultural production has faltered, rivers have shriveled and the nation has even racked up a body count due to “water rage.”
It’s “the worst drought in 100 years,” according to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. And it could soon repeat itself in the U.S.
The math is simple: Increasing populations require more water. Couple increased demand with changing rainfall patterns due to climate change, and you’ve got a potential worldwide crisis. Australia is the test case. If Australians can find a way out of their current drought, they will light a way for the rest of the world. If they can’t, well, the news isn’t good.
So far, it’s been bad news.
Three to four years ago, water sold for $25 (Australian) per million liters, but hit a record price of $1,200 in the past year, says Wendy Craik, chief executive of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MDBC), a governmental body that promotes sustainability in Australia’s key waterway. The cost was driven up by farmers desperate for water.
“People have built up businesses around a certain level of water availability that’s no longer there,” says Craik.
The drought has also caused the collapse of Australia’s rice industry. Where the country once grew 1 million tons of the thirsty grain annually, last year it grew only 18,000. The consequences of this shortage have been felt globally, contributing to the recent doubling in rice prices, global shortages and food riots.
All considered, drought lowered the nation’s gross domestic product almost 1% from 2001 to 2003, according to the Yearbook of Australia. And in coming years, the cost of fighting drought could add 2% to interest rates.
But not all the damage can be priced. The Murray-Darling Basin, which historically provided 40% of Australia’s agricultural production, is withering. The MDBC’s Craik says nearly 70% of the red gum trees that line the Murray River are “stressed or dying,” and its wetlands are drying up and producing acid sulfide soils. In some of the basin’s natural habitats, it’s now too salty for organisms to live.
Australia’s government has launched a variety of initiatives to save water and stem the nation’s losses. One program, the Water Smart Gardens and Homes Rebate Scheme, gives consumers rebates of $10 if they install more efficient shower heads, $30 for buying waterless car-cleaning products and $150 to install tanks that collect rainwater. Over 177,000 rebates have been given since 2003, saving 1.6 billion liters of drinking water a year in the state of Victoria alone, the government says.
The flip side of the rebates is government restrictions. Melbourne, for example, is under so-called Stage 3A restrictions, meaning residents can only water their gardens twice a week, can’t fill new swimming pools and may not wash their cars at home. Roving patrols enforce the rules, and if you receive a warning but persist, you could be prosecuted, fined and see your water supply reduced to a trickle.
The restrictions have brought tempers to a boil, leading to at least one case of “water rage.” In late October 2007, 36-year-old Todd Munter was charged with the murder of Sydney resident Ken Proctor, 66. Munter accosted Proctor, accusing him of unlawfully watering his lawn. Police say Proctor “turned his hose on the other man,” according to The Sydney Morning Herald. Enraged, Munter attacked Proctor, who suffered a fatal heart attack.
Most have taken the restrictions in better humor. “We took baths instead of showers,” says Andrew Gill, a 36-year-old small-business owner who lives in Australia’s Hunter Valley. “The leftover water from the bath, dishwashing or washing of clothes was used to either flush the toilet or water the garden.”
Overall, there’s been an 8% decrease in Australian home water use between 2000 and 2005, to 2.1 trillion liters. But with the nation’s population projected to increase as much as 59% by 2051, from 21 million today to 33 million, more conservation is needed. So the government will spend $50 billion on water programs over the next 10 years.
One area of future focus is to reduce water use in rural areas, says Dr. Tom Hatton, director of Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, a governmental water management agency. Nearly 85% of Australians live in urban areas but receive only 11% of its freshwater. The 15% of Australians who live in rural areas use 65% of the nation’s water, mainly for agriculture. New programs include giving $6 billion to farmers to build efficient water pipes instead of open irrigation channels, and spending $3 billion to buy water entitlements from willing farmers, says Hatton.
If the programs work, they could point the way for other nations in facing their own water crises–including, potentially, the U.S.
There are signs a serious American drought could already be under way. According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the Colorado River Basin, which services much of the West, is drying out. Inflows to Lake Powell, one of the basin’s two massive reservoirs–the other is Lake Mead–have been below average every year but two for the last decade. Lake Powell was 87% full in 2000, but now it’s at 47%. Lake Mead is at 48%.
The U.S. government has already stepped in to keep the West wet. One new federal program, called Water 2025, provides 50/50 cost-share funding to projects focused on water conservation and efficiency. And in 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey will undertake its first water census in three decades.
Local governments are also moving ahead with their own plans. In South Florida, homeowners could face permanent restrictions limiting them to watering lawns only twice a week. And Los Angeles has plans to treat sewage and make drinkable water.
Its unlikely such changes will be enough to address the water demands of the future. In Australia, climate change has only begun to shift rain patterns, driving most of the rain that used to hit the southern part of the continent out to sea. That means that the Australian drought, already the worst in history, could be just getting started.