Hopes of plenty of winter rain to end the drought affecting much of south-east England are fading, according to a long-range forecast from the Met Office. It is now predicting average winter temperatures across Britain, with a colder spell towards the end of the season.
An early long-range forecast in July suggested that December to February would be relatively warm and wet, but scientists have revised their predictions. They now expect typical winter temperatures and rainfall, although there is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast.
"Temperatures near the 1971-2001 average [of 3.7C, 39F] are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures ... and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps," said a statement issued by the Met Office. The rainfall forecast is even less certain. "Wetter than average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter or drier than average winter," said the forecast. "The weather is on a knife edge in terms of what is going to happen. It is finely balanced between colder and warmer," said Mark Huddleston, a long-range forecaster at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter.
The long-range prediction is based mainly on data on ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic. But part of the reason for the shift in the forecast since July is the expected influence of a weak El Niño event developing in the tropical eastern Pacific, which is tipping the balance towards a colder winter for us. Meanwhile, forecasters warned of possible coastal flooding and road disruption today after the aftermath of former hurricane Gordon was due to hit south-west England, west Wales and Ireland last night.