The polar ice cap is shrinking at a rate of 9% each decade as Arctic ice thins, melts and ruptures. The consequences for global warming are potentially catastrophic. Yet as the ice recedes, Arctic resources are becoming more accessible. Eight countries–the U.S., Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland–have claims to those resources. Of these, Russia has been the most active in putting forward claims, creating significant anxiety for some of the other Arctic states.
The Arctic region is governed by the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Seven Arctic states have signed and ratified UNCLOS. The eighth, the U.S., played a major role in negotiating the treaty but has not yet signed it. Russia is intent on carrying out exploratory missions to prove its Arctic continental shelf is part of its territory, which, according to UNCLOS, would allow it to extend its zone of sovereignty in the region.
Russia first submitted claims to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf–the panel of scientists at the U.N. responsible for making decisions about expanded territorial rights in the Arctic–as early as 2001. It argued that the undersea Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleyev Rise are a continuation of the Russian continental shelf, and therefore part of Russian territory. The claim was rejected for lack of evidence. Moscow has pledged to submit new documentary evidence by 2010.
Two Arctic expeditions (in 2005 and 2007) have already been undertaken in search of evidence. In 2008, the National Security Council adopted the “Principles of the Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic for the Period to 2020,” which stipulates that geological, geophysical, hydrographic and cartographic work to prepare the necessary evidence must be completed by 2010. However, Artur Chilingarov, Russia’s representative for international cooperation in the Arctic and Antarctic, has already caused international concern by warning that if Russia’s rights are not recognized, it will withdraw from UNCLOS.
Two other factors have caused apprehension about Russia’s Arctic ambitions. Russia’s new National Security Strategy warns of possible future international conflict over energy resources on the shelf of the Barents Sea and other parts of the Arctic. Its Arctic policy principles appear to suggest that Russia intends to militarize its Arctic zone.
It calls for reinforcing the Federal Security Service-controlled Border Troops by establishing a coast guard service to patrol Russia’s Arctic borders and ensure the security of the Russian portion of the Arctic Ocean. There are also plans to embark on training army units that could form an Arctic force and to increase the number of Arctic air and naval patrols.
Cooperative Overtures and Ecological Concerns
Despite belligerent measures and statements, there is evidence that Russia would prefer cooperation to confrontation in the Arctic. Russian awareness that the ecology of the Arctic is endangered also appears to be growing.
In Russia’s bilateral relations with Arctic states, there are frequent calls for cooperation, which have figured prominently on the agenda of recent Russian-U.S. meetings. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both argue is in international interests that Moscow and Washington cooperate in the region.
Notwithstanding its assertive tone, Russia’s Arctic principles refer to the Arctic as a “zone of peace” and call for international ecological cooperation in the region. Moreover, in June, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced the creation of a 3.7 million acre park on the northern part of Novaya Zemlya, an island between the Barents and Kara seas, to preserve the Arctic polar bear, walrus, wild reindeer and bird populations.
Russia would rather persuade its neighbors that its territorial claims are legitimate than assert its rights by force. Indeed, providing good geological evidence and demonstrating sensitivity to ecological concerns are far more likely to yield dividends with Russia’s fellow Arctic states than creating an Arctic armed force or planting titanium flags on the ocean floor.
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