Coronavirus NJ: Social distancing remains a life-saver | Asszony
It is obvious that the present coronavirus pandemic has not run its course. Yet, Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia announced he will reopen some businesses, restaurants, gyms, hair salons as well as movie theaters. In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee will rescind the stay-at-home order. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued an order to reopen some retail stores, beaches and other public places. Florida is also allowing some beaches to open.
Are these actions being taken too soon?
Should more caution be considered?
Could there be a resurgence of the virus?
Scientists, such as Peter Marks, director of the United States Food and Drug Administration Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, along with Michael Mina, Professor of Epidemiology at the Harvard University School of Public Health, and others, believe there could be a second wave.
A similar situation occurred a little over a hundred year ago when people ignored, or couldn’t apply, the social distancing guidelines. The majority of deaths occurred during that second wave of the pandemic, erroneously called the Spanish Flu. The first wave of the 1918 pandemic was mild — many who contracted the illness recovered within a few days. The second wave was catastrophic. More people died during the second wave of that viral attack than during the entire World War I.
The "war to end all wars" would kill 20 million people but the Spanish Flu would kill 50 million worldwide including 675,000 in the United States. Based on the percentage of the population at that time, it would be the equivalent of 2.2 million today. There were over 53,000 American combat deaths during World War I, while some reports claim an additional 63,000 American military personnel died of the flu by the end of 1918.
The origin of the Spanish Flu is not known. But, the first cases were observed in Europe. The disease spread around the world within months. The first epidemics at U.S. military training camps were a harbinger of what was to follow. The war greatly affected the course of the influenza with men being in close quarters, both aboard ships and on the front lines. The flu was spread by military troops being transferred around the country, to Europe and by those returning home after the war. Military personnel would die aboard the ships heading for Europe even before getting to battle. More soldiers were evacuated from front lines because of illness than from wounds in battle. There were recommendations to halt deployment of troops, but reinforcements were needed, so troop convoys continued. Some historians claim that as many as 40% of the Navy and 36% of the Army became ill during the war period.
Although there was a degree of social distance enforced for military personnel at camps stateside, it was not enough. Civilians were allowed to enter and leave the camps carrying the virus with them. Ignoring social distancing, people gathered in the streets to celebrate the end of the war — those celebrations fueled the spread of the illness and an increase in deaths.
While in Europe during 1919 negotiating a peace treaty, President Wilson contracted the Spanish Flu. His illness affected the negotiations and possibly changed the course of history.
Recently, Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey stated his concern about stopping restrictions too soon.
“We know if we stop what we are doing, even one bit, COVID-19 can boomerang on us and bring a worst case scenario,” Murphy said.
He further added that there would be "blood on our hands" if restrictions are lifted too soon. Social distancing, washing hands, staying at home does save lives. Is it worth the wait?
Carl J. Asszony can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.