A new study found that record high temperatures are occurring more frequently than record lows, yet another indication of climate change.
Record high temperatures are increasingly more common than record lows. A new study indicates that this trend will continue in the coming decades. The National Center for Atmospheric Research conducted a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science that indicates heat temperature records could surpass cold records by 15 times (plus or minus 8) during the remaining century.
“More and more frequently, climate change will affect Americans with record-setting heat,” said Gerald Meehl, the lead author of the study. Extreme lows will still hold records but will become less frequent, he said.
Record highs will outweigh lows because temperatures in the Lower 48 region are expected to warm about 5.4 degrees (3 Celcius) by 2065 if emissions continue at their current pace.
“An increase in average temperatures of a few degrees may not seem like much, but it correlates with a noticeable increase in days that are hotter than any in the record and nights that will remain warmer than we’ve ever experienced in the past,” Meehl said.
The level of warming will dictate the disparity between the highs and lows. If the climate heats up to 7.2 degrees (4 Celcius), the number of record highs could multiply by 38 times. Yet if temperatures rise no higher then 3.6 degrees (2 Celcius), record highs would outnumber lows by 5.5 times.
The recent study was influenced by Meehl’s earlier analysis in 2009 with co-authors, Claudia Tebaldi and Dennis Adams-Smith, which found twice as many record highs occurred than lows in the continental U.S. after 2000.
Following Meehl’s 2009 study, highs have significantly outpaced lows but with noted annual fluctuation. The warmest year on record was in 2012 with a ratio of 5:1, for instance, but in 2013 and 2014 the ratio was 1:1 because the polar vortex was altered with abnormal frigid air levels.
The nation, this year, has experienced five to six times record heat temperatures than lows.
Source: The Washington Post