Waiting (and waiting) for hurricane season
Early this summer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (yes, that’s NOAA), predicted an “extremely active” hurricane season with an above average number of storms.
NOAA predicted seven to 11 hurricanes would form in the Atlantic this year. AccuWeather predicted eight. NOAA said there was a 70 percent chance of 13-20 named storms.
If the first hurricane of 2013 forms after 8 a.m. Sept. 11th, it will be the latest appearance by a first hurricane in the “satellite era” (i.e. since 1967, when forecasters first got to chance to see what hurricanes looked like from space.) The latest first hurricane recorded was on Oct. 8, 1905, but earlier hurricanes could easily have been missed with the view from space.
There have been two recorded years without hurricanes — 1907 and 1914 — but today’s experts don’t completely trust those records.
UPDATE: Umberto made it! It was declared a hurricane in the early morning hours of Sept. 11, sneaking under the wire as the second-latest first hurricane.
Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center said in emails to media this week that the lack of hurricanes could be blamed on dry, stable and sinking air over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, dust from the Sahara and wind shear that caused storms to dissipate. But he warned we are only halfway through hurricane season and we could still get those predicted storms.
Colorado State University, which is also in the hurricane-prediction business, slightly lowered its seasonal forecast on Aug. 2. But it still said 2013 would see above-average activity, with eight hurricanes and three that develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.