Posted Sep 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
There are way too many cryptocurrencies out there and even if we accept the theory that ONE will survive and become mainstream, what happens to the rest? This is the great unanswered question. You certainly cannot replace the dollar and central banks with thousands of currencies. We tried that once when Andrew Jackson revoked the Bank of the United States charter. We ended up with EVERY bank issuing their own paper money and that concluded in creating the Great Depression of the 1840s that led to violence in the streets, defaults of State debts who tried to bail out failed banks, and eventually, a civil war that was not entirely over slavery. (You can buy catalogs of Broken Bank Notes that are published per state because there are way too many to be just one book).
There certainly is no possible viable economic system where there are thousands of cryptocurrencies. For the theory to even be viable aside from technology and every person being able to use computers or smartphones, there must be economic viability and security. In other words, the mere existence of a product does not necessarily mean that the product is working. When every bank issued its own currency, fraud became commonplace. After all, there has to be just one currency at least per nation – not thousands. Commerce would come to a standstill. Some people would refuse to accept a certain one just as some places refuse to accept a particular credit card be it Visa, Mastercard, or American Express.
There is just no way a single currency for the entire world will ever work because not everyone has a current account and trade surplus. Someone must have a deficit. A single currency would result in exaggerated inflation and deflation globally in different regions. This is the problem with the dollar. If the Fed raises interest rates, it impacts the world because other nations are issuing debt in dollars. This is what results in losing DOMESTIC policy objective to INTERNATIONAL policy realities.
A recent study found that only 36 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has any working product. Most are just promises like the broken banknotes of the 1840s. Some people have gotten so caught up in this whole mess that they have lost a fortune. One borrowed $127,000 to invest in cryptocurrencies and lost 85%. Understanding that cryptocurrencies are no different from anything else and they rise and fall like a commodity, stock, or bond is critical. They are trading vehicles when you at least stick to the majors.
Socrates picked the high in Bitcoin perfectly. How? Why? Very simple in fact. No matter what instrument you look at, the chart is not actually that instrument. It is a chart of HUMAN emotion relating TO THAT instrument. The chart of silver from 1980 is similar to that of BitCoin. Back then, they were touting silver would go to $100. They swore it would do that any day for the next 19 years. We have people in Bitcoin swearing it is going to $100,000 and become the new reserve currency. That is such a joke for any currency to be worth that much would guarantee it cannot be used in commerce since most transactions are small. Then to be the reserve currency means governments would have to issue debt in Bitcoin. Come on! Are these claims even practical?
No matter what bull market we look at, we find the same patterns. People get all emotional and rush in and buy the highs. The curious element is that they continue to believe the decline is only temporary and new highs will happen any day. This seems to be standard human bias when people get caught up in the speculative fever and lose all sight of history or reality no matter whet the market.
This is why PROFESSIONAL traders have one PRIMARY RULE! ———– Never marry the trade!
BitCoin is a trading vechicle. Trade it with that in mind ONLY. It will never replace the dollar, become a reserve currency, and it will not soar to $100,000. Those who believe such nonsense will be easily separated from their money. Trade it that way.