2 February 2007 Changes in the atmosphere, the oceans and glaciers and ice caps now show unequivocally that the world is warming due to human activities, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in new report released today in Paris.
Welcoming the findings, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon pointed to the “scientific consensus regarding the quickening and threatening pace of human-induced climate change” and called for the global response “to move much more rapidly as well, and with more determination.”
In a statement released by his spokesman, the Secretary-General said the new study and expected follow-up IPCC reports “will be critical guides for the UN’s response to anthropogenic climate change,” and will support action by those concerned globally, nationally and locally.
The IPCC, which brings together the world’s leading climate scientists and experts, concluded that major advances in climate modelling and the collection and analysis of data now give scientists “very high confidence” – at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct – in their understanding of how human activities are causing the world to warm. This level of confidence is much greater than the IPCC indicated in their last report in 2001.
Today’s report, the first of four volumes to be released this year by the IPCC, also confirms that it is “very likely” that humanity’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases have caused most of the global temperature rise observed since the mid-20th century. The report says that it is likely that effect of human activity since 1750 is five times greater than the effect of fluctuations in the sun’s output.
Susan Soloman, co-chair of the IPCC working group that produced the report, said records from ice cores, going back 10,000 years, show a dramatic rise in greenhouse gases from the onset of the industrial era. “There can be no question that the increase in these greenhouse gases are dominated by human activity.”
Three years in the making, the report is based on a thorough review of the most-up-to-date, peer-reviewed scientific literature available worldwide. IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachuari said the science has “moved on” and the extent of knowledge and the research carried is now several steps beyond what was possible for the last report.
The report describes an accelerating transition to a warmer world – an increase of 3°C is expected this century – marked by more extreme temperatures including heat waves, new wind patterns, worsening drought in some regions, heavier precipitation in others, melting glaciers and Arctic ice, and rising global average sea levels.
“This report by the IPCC represents the most rigorous and comprehensive assessment possible of the current state of climate science and has considerably narrowed the uncertainties of the 2001 report,” said Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“The 2nd of February, 2007 in Paris will perhaps one day be remembered as the day where the question mark was removed behind the debate on whether climate change has anything to do with human activity on this planet,” said Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
“Momentum for action is building; this new report should spur policymakers to get off the fence and put strong and effective policies in place to tackle greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
The report also concludes that: