For centuries, scientists have been studying earthquakes after the fact to find clues which would help predict future tremblors, but, so far, an effective method has yet to be devised.
But, an admittedly amateur earthquake researcher claims that known facts point to some indicators which might help predict exactly when the next big earthquake could occur.
And, according to David Nabhan, author of the provocative new book, "Earthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Sight", the next big quake, which could hit the Los Angeles area (among other equally active regions) should occur at a predictable time.
Dawn to be exact. And, on July 12, 2014, to be precise.
Nabhan's methods don't specifically point to an LA earthquake, or any quake in other regions around the planet sitting atop active fault lines, many with millions of inhabitants living nearby.
The author claims, rather, that conditions favorable to large earthquakes all come together in the dawn hours of July 12, 2014, as astronomical events align and the Earth is squeezed by immense gravitational forces too titanic to overcome, especially at the relatively fragile locations around the planet susceptible to such fairly rare alignments and special conditions.
What conditions are those? Nabhan says that "conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides" must come together in a fairly rare confluence. "Just imagine the muscle required to move our oceans around every day" posits Nabhan. "Our fractured fault lines are not immune to this power."
Despite Nabhan's amateur status (he's a former schoolteacher who got interested in earthquakes after coordinating disaster preparedness drills) what he says makes a lot of sense, even if his claims are met with resistance in scientific circles.
"I realized this sort of conscience doesn't happen in science" says Nabhan. "These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast," he claims. “All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, have been dawn or dusk earthquakes."
So, using his method for predicting the optimal time for the next big earthquake, wherever it strikes, leads Nabhan to conclude that the conditions will be just right starting at dawn on July 12, 2014.
Of course, Nabhan does not specifically predict the quake will hit Los Angeles, only that the potential risk is highest at that time.
And, so, the countdown begins...
What do you think? Can this method of earthquake prediction be accurate? Will you be on guard for an earthquake on July 12, 2014?
Please leave a comment below.