A recent Nature paper is worth reading, if only for pondering the implications. As reported by the BBC:
Pledges made at December’s UN summit in Copenhagen are unlikely to keep global warming below 2C, a study concludes.
Writing in the journal Nature, analysts at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany say a rise of at least 3C by 2100 is likely.
The team also says many countries, including EU members and China, have pledged slower carbon curbs than they have been achieving anyway.
They say a new global deal is needed if deeper cuts are to materialise.
“There’s a big mismatch between the ambitious goal, which is 2C… and the emissions reductions,” said Potsdam’s Malte Meinshausen.
The paper can be found here: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature 464, 1126-1128 (22 April 2010) | doi:10.1038/4641126a
The shape of things to come?
3C may not sound a lot.
But how about a 4C world? Consider some of the papers of a conference held in Oxford in late 2009. Take the time to review the papers, presentations and audio materials. Before anyone rushes to accuse me of alarmism, I’d like to state that models can contain a degree of uncertainty.
This is about probabilities: just like smoking increases the risk of lung cancer, continuing to emit CO2 at presents rates nudges us closer to a 4C world.
Dr Mark New, the Conference steering committee leader, provides an overview:
Time for greater reflection on what can be done.
Time to consider the next steps.
Time to act.