MELINDA JAMES - PRESENTER: The Federal Government's climate change adviser has today recommended cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 10 per cent by 2020. Professor Ross Garnaut admits that won't save the nation's coral reefs or the Murray Darling. But the big question for Darwin is whether it will be enough to save the city's low-lying suburbs from inundation because of rising sea levels. It's a pressing issue with the city's population tipped to double in the next 50 years. Territory planners, developers and insurers are already bracing for the reality of climate change and they want you to start preparing as well. Will your house go under in the rising tide? Danielle Parry reports.
DANIELLE PARRY - REPORTER: Every year, more wealthy Top Enders are shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars to fulfill their dream of owning a waterfront home. These are prized properties with ocean views and sea breezes. But this lifestyle is under threat - the culprit: rising sea levels.
PROFESSOR WILL STEFFEN - AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY (19 AUGUST): The paleo evidence suggests that a rise of up to 4 metres this century is possible.
DANIELLE PARRY: This is just a special effect today, but scentists are convinced ocean rises are now a looming reality. The only questions are: how much will the sea rise and in what time frame?
GRAEME SAWYER - DARWIN LORD MAYOR: Some of the models showing Darwin after the sea rises that have been predicted show that there's of roads missing and lots of houses underwater and all sorts of problems.
BARBARA NORMAL - ROYAL MELBOURNE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: In relation to Darwin, governments should be concerned, should be very concerned. The science is informing us of predicted increased sea level rises and storm surges.
RICHARD HARDING - TERRITORY INSURANCE OFFICE CHIEF EXECUTIVE: I certainly think it's the biggest challenge facing the global insurance industry. We insure around eight billion dollars worth of assets in the Darwin CBD and general metropolitan area. About two billion of that is within one kilometre of the ocean and about 200 million of it is within about 500 metres of the ocean, so there is a big risk out there for an insurance company.
DANIELLE PARRY: The issue of devlopment in a warming world has come to a head in Victoria. In July, the owners of these south Gippsland properties were denied permission to build here because the land was deemed to be under threat from rising sea levels. It's the first decision of its kind in Australia.
SCOTT CHAPMAN - LAND OWNER (AUGUST): I wouldn't recommend anyone buy land if they want to build on it without going through a huge amount of investigation.
DANIELLE PARRY: And many beleive the land mark ruling in the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal has national implications.
ROD APPLEGATE - DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING AND INFRASTRUCTURE: It's a bit of a wake up call for planning across Australia. I think it will be causing all planning authorities to relook at their planning schemes and obviously councils will need to be coordianted as well. But you know, the next hundred years will be a challenge for lots of coastal communities.
DANIELLE PARRY: It's certainly something planners in Darwin are now starting to think harder about. The city is built up on a peninsula jutting out into the sea. But many suburbs are low lying, with the water just a stone's throw from houses. Areas like Coconut Grove will bear the brunt of sea level rises.
GRAEME SAWYER: I don't know what the rationale was behind building in a primary surge zone, but if you look back through Darwin's history, those surge zones have been quite regularly over time full of salt water.
DANIELLE PARRY: Even government planners are amazed this area (Coconut Grove) was ever given the green light.
ROD APPLEGATE: There are houses that have been built in the sixties and seventies that probably today we wouldn't allow to be built because they are in a storm surge. They are obviously at risk and will continue to be in greater risk over the century as climate change impacts and sea levels rise.
DANIELLE PARRY: Darwin's Lord Mayor is worried about what's to come. He's urging the Territory government to start planning for the effects of climate change, not just on residential properties but also on public infrastructure.
GRAEME SAWYER: The whole Tiger Brennan access into Darwin whould probably disappear. So would the Dick Ward Drive access, so from having three raods into town you're back to the Stuart Highway. So maybe we need to make it a ten-lane highway or make Tiger Brennan Drive a causeway, maybe forty years down the track.
DANIELLE PARRY: There seem to be two main questions for Darwin: planning for future development and managing the threat to existing housing. Some believe a policy of planned retreat from the coast could be answer to both.
BARBARA NORMAN: Byron Bay Shire Council. They've had a policy of what they call 'planned retreat' over the last six or seven years, which they're now reviewing, which really means yes you've got exisiting development but firstly in the future don't plan any more development in areas that may go under. That would be the first priority. And secondly, over time as we rebuild our cities, we start to step back from the coastline.
DANIELLE PARRY: In the Top End the real estate industry doesn't think it's time for property owners to panic just yet. It's confident global warming won't affect prices in the near future.
RYAN O'HANLON - REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE NT: Real estate has always been about location location location. That will always continue. So highly unlikley that prices would be effected in the short term.
DANIELLE PARRY: Extreme weather events such as cyclones and the floods which often follow them are expected to become more regular as global temperatures rise. And that has the insurance industry worried.
RICHARD HARDING: I think the whole global warming issue is an issue that we're interested in becasue it affects the frequency of storms and it affects the frequency of flood and storm affects flood.
DANIELLE PARRY: The 1998 Katherine flood cost TIO fifty million dollars and it's hoping a repeat can be avoided through cooperation between insurers and the Department of Planning and Infrastructure. And that's a principle TIO believes should be applied to the coast too.
RICHARD HARDING: In Katherine, you know, we've worked with the DPI to try and develop planning zones and the DPI's done an enormous job there to make sure that future development there happens outside the flood zone. And that's the sort of cooperation we need to make sure sure that insurance doesn't become unaffordable for the average person.
DANIELLE PARRY: Despite these sometimes dire predictions, the allure of the coast continues. Apartment blocks like this one are still springing up and selling fast, whatever inconveniences life on the water's edge might bring. "Is it out of the realms of possibility that we could be going down Dick Ward Drive in a boat instead of a car one day?"
GRAEME SAWYER: No, it's not. I mean if you put a metre sea rise and stuff on top of what we get now, it'd be great to go to work in a boat, wouldn't it?