In der aktuellen Oktober 2013-Ausgabe des internationalen Fachmagazins ‘Disaster Advances‘ ist ein Editorial mit dem Titel “Studies of the past as the key to the future? Geological and historical reconstructions provide valuable support for future trend prediction of natural disasters” von Kalte-Sonne-Koautor Sebastian Lüning erschienen. Thema der begutachteten Arbeit ist die natürliche Variabilität von Extremwettererscheinungen und mögliche Einflussfaktoren. Das pdf des Textes ist kostenfrei herunterladbar. Hier ein Auszug:
Studies of the past as the key to the future? Geological and historical reconstructions provide valuable support for future trend prediction of natural disasters
Natural Disasters are a serious threat to life on our planet. Over geological time, a series of mass extinctions have occurred that wiped numerous animal and plant species out, the most prominent being the sudden disappearance of the dinosaurs. One of the most common processes that affect life on earth is the ever changing climate. During the last 2 million years global temperatures varied by several degrees according to the rhythm of cold and warm phases triggered by cyclical changes in earth orbital parameters. The same mechanism also led to the Holocene Climate Optimum 9000 to 5000 years before today when temperatures were up to 4°C warmer than today in high northern latitudes and around 1°C warmer near the equator. On shorter time scale, temperature dynamics were characterized by characteristic millennial scale cycles which resulted from a combination of solar activity changes2 as well as system-internal autocycles11. The last iteration of this millennial scale cycle commenced with the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climatic Anomaly, AD 950 to 1250) which most probably was characterized by temperature levels that were similar to today. The subsequent Little Ice Age from 1350-1850 in turn experienced significant cooling, coinciding with a major decrease in solar activity following the solar Eddy cycle1. Temperatures began to rise again since the mid 19th century, caused by an increase in solar activity and the continued accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Weiterlesen in Disaster Advances.