A poll recently released by Zogby Analytics shows around half of Americans anticipate a second civil war to happen at some time in the future. In total, 46% of people voted that it was likely, with 30% saying it was “somewhat likely” and 16% voting it was “very likely.” Overall, a total of 42% predicted that another civil war would not occur.
The Zogby poll asked 873 American citizens, weighted for political party, state residence and race. The poll did not ask about how a war might unfold, allowing those being polled to do their own interpretation of the question.
White Americans were the least likely to predict civil war, with 43% predicting as such. Meanwhile, 53% of Hispanics and 49% of Black Americans said it would occur. Young Americans were by far the most certain that a war is coming, with 53% of 18-29 year-olds saying it will happen. On the other hand, only 31% of people over age 65 predicted a civil war.
Both Democrats and Republicans predicted a civil war is coming, with independents saying otherwise. 45% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said conflict is near.
It’s important to keep in mind that the surrealness of a possible Civil War can really blind Americans to it. When the first Civil War started, people arrived to watch battlefields for entertainment, completely unaware of how bad the conflict would become. It is not impossible to know what this conflict might look like, but civil conflicts in other nations have started with heated language that feels a little more than normal rhetorical sparring.
It’s up to President Biden to “unite” the nation, and although he is keen to talk unity, he has done little to prove he intends to deliver it.