In a case study in the Annual Energy Outlook
2014 (AEO2014) from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), more-stringent vehicle fuel economy
standards contribute to a decline in motor gasoline
consumption through 2040.
At the same time, growth in heavy-duty vehicle miles traveled
(VMT) is greater than increasing heavy-duty vehicle fuel
economy, contributing to rising diesel fuel demand.
One of the primary drivers of the decrease in motor gasoline
consumption is more stringent fuel economy standards that,
based on National Highway Transportation Safety
Administration (NHTSA) estimates, will require new light-duty
vehicles to average about 49 miles/gal in vehicle model year
(MY) 2025, versus their current compliance estimate of about
33 miles/gal in MY 2012.
The reference case projects an increase in VMT that, all else
equal, would increase motor gasoline fuel consumption.
However, higher fuel efficiency standards more than offset
this increase to result in an overall decline in motor
In contrast to the project
ed decline in gasoline use,
a strong increase in heavy-duty VMT leads to an increase in
consumption of diesel fuel, even as heavy-duty vehicle fuel
economy increases in response to EPA fuel efficiency and
greenhouse gas emission standards. New refinery project
s are expected to focus on
shifting production from gasoline to distillate fuels to meet
growing domestic and global demand for diesel.
In addition to meeting domestic demand, refineries continue
to export finished products to international markets
throughout the projection. The US became a net exporter of
finished petroleum products in 2011, with net petroleum
product exports growing in the reference case through 2040.
The projections for gasoline and diesel use in the reference
case reflect current laws and policies, including fuel
efficiency standards that have already been issued as final
rules. Further efficiency standards and changes in travel
behavior are key uncertainties that could result in future
fuel use being different from the case project
ions, the EIA says.