In the inglorious race to
Until recently the most significant trend was rich nations' practice of effectively exporting their emissions. They do this by shutting down their own factories and importing goods from China or other emerging economies. In 2008, for instance, one-third of China's domestic emissions came from the manufacture of goods for export, which means that consumers in rich countries were ultimately to blame for those emissions.
That situation is now changing, says Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, in Norway. Consumers in developing countries – those not included in annex B to the Kyoto protocol – released more CO2 than consumers in developed countries. As a leading emerging economy, China's emissions grew 10.4 per cent last year. "The developing countries' excuses are starting to drop away," says Peters.
Committed to cuts
That's not the full story, however, says John Moore of Beijing Normal University in China. There are far more developing countries than developed countries, and China's high emissions are largely a product of its huge population, he says. This means that consumption per person in China is still far lower than in the US.
Moreover, Moore also says China has shown far more commitment to cutting emissions than most developed countries: it puts up a new wind turbine every hour on average, for instance. Pressure on local officials to meet emissions targets is so intense that last year Anping county temporarily cut power to homes and public facilities, including traffic lights, to do so. "If China makes a promise to cut emissions, they will do it," Moore says.
Ultimately, both developed and developing countries will have to slash their emissions dramatically if we are to limit climate change to a manageable level. "It's pointless to keep blaming each other," Moore says.
Journal reference: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1332