The high profile of Colombia's green party following its impressive results in the 2010 elections might suggest it would have much to say about the environmental impact of the country's free trade agreement with the US.
The US congress passed the long-delayed trade deal earlier this month, and it was subsequently signed into law by President Barack Obama on what Colombia's president, Juan Manuel Santos, declared a "historic day" for his country.
Partido Verde candidate Antanas Mockus took Santos, the conservative favourite, to a second round, gaining 3.5m votes (27.5%) and greatly boosting his party's standing among sister movements in Latin America, yet the greens have been strangely quiet about the deal.
The US-Colombia free trade agreement reduces tariffs and other trade barriers between the countries, and business supporters are effusive about the anticipated growth of US exports to Colombia, which are currently worth about $8bn a year.
Labour rights were at the heart of the long US delay in passing the agreement, largely because of appalling statistics surrounding the murder of trade unionists in Colombia. Yet the deal also contains what American officials describe as "groundbreaking" environmental protection measures.
Critics, however, say the deal is based on the failed models for the North and Central America free trade agreements, which are fashioned on the policy assumption – called into question by some studies in recent years – that economic development takes priority over environmental protection because growth will inevitably result in environmental improvements.
The critics claim the Colombian free trade agreement will be bad for the environment on two fronts: first, because of the direct consequences of increased trade; second, because the deal's investment provisions give foreign corporations breathtakingly expansive rights, making it easy for them to sue the Colombian government should environmental hurdles hinder business.
The green party's low profile on the issue – relative to the positions taken by the left and by trade unionists – says much about its origins and future.
Unlike most green parties in Latin America, Colombia's greens do not have deep roots in the social movements that, alongside trade unions, mobilised against authoritarian regimes in the 1970s. The Partido Verde Colombiano is, in fact, largely a product of mainstream politicking that provides a vehicle for the ambitious men who colonised it.
Its origins lie in political reforms aimed at demobilising the armed left and the creation, in 2005, of the Partido Opción Centro in Bogotá, which shifted greenward. In 2007, Opción Centro's electoral success caught the attention of key political independents, not least Mockus and the career politician Enrique Peñalosa, both of whom are former mayors of Bogotá. The group rebranded itself the Partido Verde in the run-up to the 2010 election.
A highly successful political partnership between Mockus and Peñalosa – once a rising star in Colombia's Liberal party – gave the greens momentum. Mockus brought in the cities and affluent younger voters, Peñalosa businessmen and the upper-middle class.
The Mockus phenomenon and the rapid rise of the greens owed much to the lacklustre political alternatives on both right and left after a generation of internecine strife, revealing a strain of "anti-politics" that highlights Colombia's desire for a centrist alternative.
Santos gained a landslide on the back of the popularity of his rightwing predecessor Alvaro Uribe, his own elite credentials, and an unrivalled political machinery. Yet he is seen by many Colombians as an establishment "shoo-in", tainted by the muscular governance of Uribe's security state. The left, on the other hand, when seen alongside a potent green challenge, found it hard not to look like champions of old-fashioned grimy industrial statism.
Anti-politics is important in Latin America. One expression of the phenomenon is the recurrent enthusiasm for a charismatic outsider who embodies the rejection of mainstream parties as corrupt or ineffective.
Mockus, an eccentric former university rector, ticked just such a box, portraying himself as a risk-taking maverick whose great success as mayor of Bogotá lay in leading a psychological revolution to rid it of violence.
Perhaps most importantly, Mockus enjoyed wide support in the business community for market-friendly positions, such as privatisation, that were almost indistinguishable from those of his rival. He was also big on law and order, promising to continue the fight against drug smugglers and ruling out any peace deal with Farc rebels. In short, he was a bit like Santos with a beard.
Mockus's rapidly rising star generated high hopes among environmentalists that greens might achieve the breakthrough Latin America craves. Yet the surge of Colombia's green party has been driven by political factors incidental to environmental activism, increasing the chances that it will fall victim to mainstream predators.
As if to make this very point, Mockus resigned from the green party in June after Peñalosa, its candidate for the cherished Bogotá mayoralty in Sunday's elections, accepted a campaign endorsement from none other than Uribe.
Peñalosa is now fighting the campaign as the joint candidate of the Partido Verde and the Uribistas.