New York to be hotter, wettier and buggier
New York will be warmer, wetter and buggier, new government report says
Updated 1:59 pm, Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Welcome to the climate future of New York: warmer, wetter, with more disease-carrying ticks and mosquitoes and more allergy-causing pollen.
Those were some of the forecasts in the National Climate Assessment issued on Tuesday by the federal government that looks at how climate change is expected to affect the U.S. It is the third such national report since 2000, and the 860-page document is the work of more than 250 scientists and government officials.
Among the authors is David Wolfe, chairman of the Climate Change Focus Group at Cornell University, who helped write the chapter on the Northeast. Based on numerous peer-reviewed scientific studies, the report was also reviewed by the National Research Council and the National Academy of Science.
"A lot has changed since the U.S. government released their last report in 2008," said Wolfe. "Many climate impacts that were once projected for the future are happening now, like increased flooding events from heavy rainfall, more coastal storm damage due to sea level rise, summer heat stress, increased summer drought and forest fire risks in some parts of the nation."
Read the National Climate Assesssment for the northeast online at >http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast>
He said New York's "agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised by climate change impacts, including both too much and too little water, and expanding ranges of crop pests and invasive species. Farmers can explore new crop options with longer growing seasons, but adaptations will not be cost- or risk-free."
Average temperature in the Northeast has risen nearly 2 degrees between 1895 and 2011, accompanied by 5 more inches of annual precipitation, according to the report. Most of that extra rain has come since the 1950s; between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast had a 70 percent jump in so-called "very heavy" storms, defined as the heaviest 1 percent of storms.
More heat is on the way. If greenhouse gas emissions continue rising as projected, average temperatures could climb another 4.5 to 10 degrees by 2080. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are scaled back significantly, that increase would still be from 3 to 6 degrees.
"For our kids today and coming generations, climate change is going to be a part of their reality," said Wolfe. "For older people, historical records told us what kind of climate we could expect in the future. But that is not going to be the case for our kids and their kids."
For the Northeast, the report also predicted:
— More heat waves above 90 degrees, which combined with petrochemical air pollution would produce more smog, which will pose health risks to the young, the elderly and the infirm. By 2050, areas near the Canadian border could have 15 days a year with temperatures topping 90, compared to fewer than five days a year now.
— Increased presence of ticks, the primary carriers of Lyme disease, because ticks thrive during late spring and early summer rains. Rising temperatures and more rain should also create more habitat for the mosquito variety that carries West Nile virus.
— Allergies could worsen. For example, the ragweed pollen season is becoming longer — rising from 13 to 27 days — at 44 degrees latitude, which includes New York above the Lake George region.
"We are already seeing a change in extreme weather events in our region of storms that drop 2 inches of rain or more at once," said John Garver, a professor at Union College who has been studying rainfall patterns in the Mohawk River valley. "Such storms are going to mean more and more of a challenge to the local infrastructure of roads, bridges and culverts. They aren't designed to take that."
Farming in the Northeast also will have to change, the climate report said. Wetter springs could delay planting, and drier summers could increase irrigation demands. Warm weather could also reduce New York's milk production by stressing dairy cows, which prefer cooler temperatures.
"We have not had the opportunity to review this report, but certainly agriculture in New York is dependent on the weather. Climate change and the impact it could potentially have on our growing season may present serious challenges that we must be mindful of," said Steve Ammerman, spokesman for New York Farm Bureau.
For example, in 2003 and 2004, unusually warm December temperatures in the vineyard country of the Finger Lakes kept vines from hardening for the winter, which then left plants vulnerable to frost damage when temperatures dropped to normal levels. Growers lost millions of dollars in grapes.
Officials from state Environmental Facilities Corp., which helps finance local infrastructure; the New York State Independent System Operator, which oversees the electrical grid, and the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, which manages the massive Catskill reservoir system, could not offer comment on the report.
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