BOTH Azeris and international observers underestimated the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev. When he was chosen to succeed his father, Heydar Aliev, in autumn 2003, he did not have much political experience. Many doubted his ability to govern Azerbaijan and preserve its recent stability. Yet two years later, Aliev was elected as president while his allies swept the board in parliamentary elections in November 2005. By then he was already well established as the uncontested ruler of Azerbaijan.
Only 11 seats out of 125 in the Milli Majlis, the Azerbaijani parliament, went to opposition parties. The rest were divided between the ruling party, Yeni Azerbaijan (New Azerbaijan), and “independent” representatives thought to be close to the regime. The opposition and western observers made complaints, but Yeni Azerbaijan enjoys full control of the state apparatus, and has the blessing of observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (1). Complaints about election irregularities are unlikely to change anything.
After peaceful, pro-democratic revolutions following contested elections in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, many people expected key elections in other post-Soviet countries to produce dramatic events. Not in Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliev has never feared that his regime could be overthrown. When a journalist asked him whether a revolution was possible in Azerbaijan, he answered “absolutely not”, adding that “every nation has its own history” (2).
And the history of modern Azerbaijan is closely associated with that of the Aliev family. For most of the past 36 years, the Alievs have ruled Azerbaijan and shaped its politics. Heydar Aliev, a former KGB officer, was appointed first secretary of the Azerbaijani Communist party in 1969. In 1982 he became a member of the Soviet politburo. He was forced to retire under Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, during attempts under perestroika to reform the corrupt (...)