An ill-fated (but uncrewed) Russian spaceship initially bound for the International Space Station will go down in flames tonight when it burns up in Earth’s atmosphere, updated reports suggest.
The Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) currently predicts that the spacecraft should re-enter Earth’s atmosphere anytime between 6:13 p.m. and 9:51 p.m. EDT. (There is still a chance that estimate will be wrong, however. It's difficult to predict when a spacecraft will make an uncontrolled re-entry.)
Russia’s Progress cargo vehicle that launched to space on April 28 never made it to the space station due to a technical error that prevented mission managers on the ground from communicating with the craft on its way to the ISS. Since launch, the spacecraft has been spinning uncontrolled while orbiting Earth.
Its re-entry shouldn’t put anyone on the planet in danger.
Progress spacecraft are designed to disintegrate harmlessly when re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. (Usually, Progress vehicles are loaded down with trash from the space station before undocking and de-orbiting.)
Even though this particular vehicle is packed with thousands of pounds of supplies originally meant for the crewmembers on the ISS, it should be no different. There is still a chance that some small objects could make it down to Earth’s surface during the breakup, however, Roscosmos said in an update.
“Only a few small fragments are expected to land” back on Earth according to a translation of the Roscosmos statement. The pieces that fall to the ground should be similar in size to the spacecraft bits that make it back to Earth during any Progress re-entry.
But where will it fall?
European Space Agency officials think that the spacecraft will probably not re-enter the atmosphere above North America or Europe. The most recent Aerospace.org prediction has the Progress coming down somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.
The crewmembers on the space station are not in any danger from the loss of supplies on the Progress. While the spacecraft was packed with food, clothes and equipment, none of it was necessary for the continued operation of the station or health of the astronauts and cosmonauts onboard, NASA says.
A number of uncrewed spacecraft visit the ISS on a semi-regular basis to restock the space laboratory with food and other cargo. SpaceX is expected to launch its seventh official uncrewed Dragon mission to the ISS in June from Florida.
This story was updated at 2:57 p.m. EDT to reflect the latest predictions of where the Progress will re-enter Earth's atmosphere.