September 1, 2005
The USDA August estimate for Kenya's total 2005/06 corn production is 2.8 million tons, up 800,000 tons from last year's poor harvest and 425,000 tons greater than the 5-year average of 2.38 million tons. A total national crop yield of 1.65 tons per hectare is estimated which is above the five year average yield of 1.55 tons per hectare. The increase in production is largely due to better yields than last year in Kenya's northern grain basket and an increase in national corn area to 1.750 million hectares, up 250,000 hectares from last year. Farmers planted more corn this year due to high local prices for the past two years and good rains at the start of the season. The increase in corn area was also highest in the key growing areas of the country, where the seasonal rains from March to August, 2005 have been near average. Harvest for the long rain season (March-December) began last month and will be completed in December.
A joint mission between USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and USAID's FEWS NET project conducted a crop tour in Kenya and Tanzania from June 23-July 5, 2005. The crop tour route transected most of the major croplands within Kenya's highlands, as well as lowland regions in the southeastern and coastal part of the country. Data from this crop tour was used in determining USDA's August crop estimates for Kenya. Additional information about the USDA/USAID crop tour is described in PECAD's update titled "Kenya and Tanzania 2005 Crop Tour Summary".
The crop tour mission found that SPOT-VEG NDVI anomaly imagery and outputs from WRSI (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index) relative-yield model closely reflected observed crop conditions on the ground for Kenya. Both of these spatial products are related to seasonal rainfall accumulations, where the long rains have been near average in the Kenya's major corn belt region of Uasin Gishu (Eldoret) and Trans Nzoia (Kitale) districts and below average in the southeastern and coastal part of the country. Crop failures were observed in many regions in southeastern Kenya where corn yields are expected to be below-average.
In addition, Kenya's Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) forecasts production for the long rains season (March-December) to be 2.33 million tons, which is above the 5-year long-rains average of approximately 2.18 million tons. USDA's estimate of 2.8 million corresponds with the MoA long rain's production estimate of 2.33 million tons and includes a 5-year average short rains (October-January) production estimate of 500,000 tons.
SPOT-VEG NDVI Anomaly from August 1-10, 2005
SPOT-VEG NDVI Anomaly Image for June 10-20, 2005
Seasonal Rainfall Estimates for 2005 "Long-Rains" Season (February 1- August 10, 2005)
WRSI (August 20) for 2005 "Long-Rains" Season
Kenya and Tanzania 2005 Crop Tour Summary (PECAD Update)
Crop Explorer (for East Africa)
Daily MODIS (250-meter resolution) Satellite Images over Africa
Kenya's District-Level Corn Production for Long-Rain and Short-Rain Seasons
National Corn Production in Kenya for the past 10-years
Production, Supply and Demand (PSD) On-line
Crop Calendar for Kenya
Kenya 2004 Crop Tour (October 25-30, 2004)
Kenya 2004 Corn Stage Pictures (October 25-30, 2004)
Different Crops Grown in Kenya (October 25-30, 2004)
Tea Plantations in Kenya (October 25-30, 2004)
Kenya's 2004/05 Corn Production Down Due to Poor Rainfall (PECAD Update on December 27, 2004)
Landuse Map from Kenyan Ministry of Lands
Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) and Crop Production Systems
Unimodal and Bimodal Rainfall Regions in East Africa
Africover Landcover Databases
Kenya Food Economy (from Save the Children)