(As of mid-October, 2014 had edged out all other years as hottest in the global climate record. With two months still to go, 2014 poses a very strong challenge to previous years. Very warm temperatures continuing through mid November add further support for a potential record breaker for the twelve months ending in December. Image source: NOAA.)
Hot on the heels of NASA’s recent announcement that October of 2014 was tied for hottest on record in its global climate measure, NOAA today also made a two record-breaking announcements.
First, according to NOAA’s measure, global surface temperatures were 0.74 degrees Celsius above average for October. This makes the month the hottest in NOAA’s measure since record keeping began.
Second, as of the middle of October, global temperature averages for the year had edged out all the previous hottest years on record. This makes 2014 the hottest year on record so far with just two months left to go.
Hottest January through October on Record
The second announcement is a critical one. Crucial because it again brings light to the fact that the so-called global warming pause is little more an artifact of cherry picking and over-playing to the influences of decadal natural variability than it is any measure of challenge to an observed 136 year warming 15-20 times more rapid than the warm-up at the end of the last ice age.
Cause for serious concern as this year’s new and increasingly strong challenge to the 2010 record high is coming during a time in which El Nino has not yet developed.
For reference, almost all recent record warm years occurred during the massive ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer event that is El Nino. Still not so for 2014. Perhaps even more importantly, the cherry of all cherries — the monster El Nino year of 1998 — is gradually getting edged out by ever wider high temperature margins.
Record Hot Year In the Forecast
(NOAA’s forecast model shows increasing likelihood that 2014 will be a new global high temperature record breaker. Image source: NOAA.)
NOAA forecast models show that it would take a rather substantial cool-down during November and December to keep 2014 off the record books. Any average at or above 0.65 C higher than the 20th Century would place 2014 as the new record holder. Temps at or near current measures showing 0.70 C or higher readings would cement a relatively significant departure of +0.03 to +0.04 C above 2010 and 0.05 to 0.06 C above 1998.
Such an event would be exceptionally significant when one considers that ENSO status has remained just to the warm side of neutral for most of the year.