Every fortnight survival expert Andy Hamilton writes a fresh column in our "What Would Happen If..." series, exploring the potential outcome of unpredictable threats to our everyday lives, and how to survive them.
As survialists and pub bores alike know, the plague was not carried by rats but by Xenopsylla cheopis -- the rat flea. The rat flea spreads the plague through its bite and the plague virus makes it throw up infected blood into any fresh wound. Once a human is infected it can be transmitted through coughs and sneezes rather like the flu virus. If you contract the plague then you can't even take solace in sex as it painfully swells the lymph glands on your groin, armpits and neck. Whilst in extreme pain you can also look forward to urinating blood, fever, delirium, coma and most pleasantly of all, your skin decomposing whilst you are still alive.
The last plague outbreak -- also known as the Third Pandemic -- happened in living memory, having officially ended in 1959. However, the disease lives on fleas across millions of wild animals worldwide and so can never really disappear. According to Susan E Dufel MD, FACEP, a one-degree increase in average spring temperatures could swell the plague's host population by 50 percent.
Also, human population is on the increase, especially in the developing world and their city sewers are not always able to cope. This simply means a larger breading ground for rats and the rat flea. We might feel safe from such conditions here in the west but as our need for cheap goods increases so do trade routes with the developing world.
How to survive a UK plague
Without treatment the plague has a 60 percent mortality rate and even with treatment it is still a massive 15 percent. Youth won't help either, with more than 50 percent of plague cases occurring in people under the age of 20. Some have a natural immunity to the plague and you could be one of the lucky ones, although such immunity is very rare. Chances are you won't be one of those, and so avoiding infected people and animals is really your only option.
Over populated areas are a breading ground for rats and indeed the plague, so most towns, cities and even villages would have to be avoided at all costs. Indeed the UK is so populated that it would be difficult to find places that you could survive.
Personally I would head for an island. They are always a good option as long as they don't get infected. In the case of long-term survival you would be looking for an island that could be self-sufficient. Guernsey could be self sufficient and would be the place to head for. Indeed it even has a series of bunkers left from the Nazi invasion, meaning you could pick off anyone jeopardising your survival.
Previously in What Would Happen If...
What would happen if: Rabies consumed Europe?
What would happen if: The UK entered an ice age?
What would happen if: Chemical bombs hit London?
What would happen if: Electricity and gas just stopped?