Predicting dire consequences if the country conducts "business as usual," U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu outlined a set of new energy-policy goals during a visit in Menlo Park on Friday.
During a two-hour lecture at times punctuated with humor, Chu told SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory scientists that science and innovation will be necessary to solve the world's energy needs and to control global warming.
To help that effort, the Department of Energy (DOE) science budget will double in the next 10 years, with basic research into new energy systems and energy efficiency receiving the lion's share of the funding, he said.
The national strategy must combine new technologies and conservation, with a goal to transform the nation's energy infrastructure, he said.
In addition, the United States must collaborate with developing nations to create new, clean technologies if the world is to reduce carbon emissions as those countries grow economically, Chu said.
The trajectory of global warming is moving at a faster rate than anticipated, he said during a Power Point presentation of charts and graphs.
Heavier precipitation, which has already begun, will cause catastrophic floods and rains in the wrong places or at the wrong times, including when farmers need to plant their crops, Chu said.
"The change would be much bigger than in the 1930's," he said, showing images of the Dust Bowl.
Between 1958 and 2007, rains significant enough to cause flooding increased 67 percent in the Northeast, 31 percent in the Midwest and 9 percent in the West, according to data.
But drought and higher temperatures for significantly longer portions of the year will also occur, he said.
"There is a very high vulnerability in the chance of fertile lands becoming desert. In the whole western edge of the U.S., desert lines will migrate," he said.
In Midwest cities such as St. Louis, Mo., one-third of the year -- 120 days -- will be above 90 degrees.
The real danger with global warming will be the tipping point, he said. As polar ice caps melt, the thaws could expose microbes, which would release carbon dioxide in quantities that would outstrip any reductions humans could make in their carbon-dioxide emissions.
"For the first time in human history, science has shown that we are altering the destiny of our planet. At no other time in the history of science have we been able to say what the future will be 100 years from now.
"It's quite alarming. Every year looks more alarming. … An irony of climate change is that the ones who will be hurt the most are the innocent -- those yet to be born," he said.
But, he said, now is not the time for fatalism but rather hope.
"The message is not one of doom and gloom but of optimism and opportunity," he said.
In the face of monumental challenges, Chu said innovation can create significant positive changes, if the country is willing to stride in new directions. And scientists will be on the forefront of the new industrial age, he said.
"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it's been," he said, quoting ice hockey great Wayne Gretzky.
Among goals Chu has outlined are:
• Improving energy efficiency in buildings
• Using reflective materials on roofs and pavement
• Rebuilding the country's electrical grid
• Developing energy-research "hubs"
• Improving turbines and energy storage
• Increasing wind-power and battery efficiency
• Technology collaborations with developing nations
Even low-tech approaches can make significant changes, he said. Geo-engineering, such as retrofitting urban roofs with solar-reflective materials and turning blacktop roads to light gray, would be the equivalent of "taking all cars off the road for 11 years," he said.
Buildings consume more than 40 percent of the nation's energy and should be designed "as a total integrated computer system, the way airplanes are designed," with computerized systems and sensors to maximize efficiency and reduce carbon output, he said.
Current LEED energy-efficiency requirements are not based on a building's future energy performance but on design, leaving them inefficient, he said.
In the same way computer systems maximize energy in cars, "smart" systems in homes could also regulate energy use. Such buildings can save 80 percent of energy with a 50 percent reduction in carbon emissions, he said.
The federal government could also provide carrot-and-stick incentives for builders and home sellers to upgrade older structures. The Federal Housing Authority should require a record of last year's utility bill of a prospective home before approving a loan, Chu said.
Nearly $4 billion will be used to help modernize the country's electrical grid, he said.
To develop a "smart" grid -- one that can manage the inputs and outputs of energy -- a standardized, sophisticated electronic communication system must be in place. Currently, there are about 80 different standards used, he said.
For the past two years, energy suppliers have done nothing to move integration forward, Chu said, and thus he has given companies an ultimatum of sorts.
"Companies must develop standards soon, or we will do it," he said.
As to sources of power, wind energy could supply 20 percent of the nation's power, he said. Smart grids and large-scale energy storage are needed to deal with various energy sources.
He did not rule out nuclear energy, saying the nuclear-waste issue is solvable. Chu said he would like to see the regulatory approval time for nuclear-power plants reduce.
Energy-innovation hubs, where business partnerships and science and technology divisions are housed in one place, could create a progression of inventions to solve the nation's needs, Chu told the scientists.
Using Bell Labs as an example, Chu said such hubs spawn "transformative innovations." Bell Labs progressed from vacuum tubes to the transistor to digital transmission and switching to the creation of lasers, solar cells and digital-signal processors, which are found in everything from wireless phones to DVD players, he said.