Worldwide cases of cancer are likely to rise by nearly 75 percent by 2030, driven by demographic and lifestyle factors, according to a study published on Friday in the journal The Lancet Oncology.
A team led by Freddie Bray of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon, France, said that in 2008 there were 12.7 million new cases of cancer, which would rise to 22.2 million by 2030, with 90 percent of the rise occurring in the poorest countries.
In many countries, falls in cancers linked to infection have been offset by cancers of the colon, rectum, breast and prostate which are associated with a “westernised” diet, they said.
The study used data from GLOBOCAN, an IARC database of cancer cases in 184 countries.
In 2008, breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancers accounted for half of the tally of cancers in rich countries. In middle-income countries, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach and liver were relatively more common.
Both categories of countries have seen falls in cervical and stomach cancer in recent years.
In the poorest countries, cervical cancer was particularly numerous, outstripping the cases of breast and liver cancer.
“If the cancer-specific and sex-specific trends estimated in this study continue, we predict an increase in the incidence of all-cancer cases from 12.7 million new cases in 2008 to 22.2 million by 2030,” said the study.
“Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increase… through effective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early detection and effective treatment programmes.”
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