In February 2023, most areas of Europe had average air temperatures higher than those of the 1991-2020 reference period. The most notable warmer-than-average conditions were found in northern Norway and Sweden, across northwestern Russia in areas surrounding the Kara Sea, and in the Svalbard region. The United Kingdom also had its fifth warmest February in a record dating back to 1884. In contrast, colder-than-average monthly temperatures were found across the Iberian Peninsula, Türkiye, and parts of the Caucasus. Note that the area of northern Italy with large positive temperature anomalies is discussed further in the Highlight Box below.
Elsewhere, February 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures across most of northwestern Eurasia, Pakistan, and India, with the latter having its warmest February in a record that extends back to 1901. Warm anomalies also occurred over central and northwest Africa and southern South America. Conversely, regions of colder-than-average temperatures were found across northern Canada, northeast Russia, northern South America, and in northeast and southern Africa. Furthermore, there were pronounced temperature contrasts across the United States and Australia. The United States had above-average and below-average temperatures in eastern and western areas, respectively, while Australia had warm anomalies in western areas and cold anomalies in northern areas.
Above-average marine air temperatures occurred over the northeast North Atlantic, most of the northern Pacific, the southwest South Atlantic, western South Pacific, and off South Africa. Temperatures were lower than average over the central tropical and northeast Pacific, as well as over a region off the coast of West Antarctica. The La Niña conditions continued to weaken. Temperatures were also below average across much of the Indian Ocean, off eastern Australia, and over the Labrador Sea.
Globally, February 2023 was:
0.29°Cwarmer than the 1991-2020 average for February
- the fifth warmest February in this data record
- 0.40°C cooler than February 2016, the warmest February on record
European-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies. The European-average temperature for February 2023 was
Temperature issue in northern Italy in February 2023
The European temperature anomaly map for February 2023 shows large positive temperature anomalies in northern Italy. It is likely that these anomalies are overestimated in the ERA5 reanalysis. An internal investigation found that the issue is (in part) related to a mismatch between the actual elevation of surface temperature observations and the model orography, causing the observations to artificially increase the model temperature. This mismatch also leads to underestimated snow cover over the affected area which further amplifies the warming in the model. The resulting excessively large positive temperature anomalies in northern Italy affect ERA5 data from around 25th January 2023 onward. The issue is likely being exacerbated this year by the low snow conditions across the Alps. It is expected to resolve itself as the snow cover recedes during March and April. The ERA5 team is closely monitoring the situation and will update this message as more information becomes available. It is likely that this issue cannot be corrected in the final version of ERA5 data. Finally, note that the problem is very localised and therefore does not invalidate the European temperature anomalies and rankings.
Across Europe, temperatures over land for the boreal winter of 2022/2023 were predominantly above the 1991-2020 average. They were much higher than average over eastern Europe and across the north of the Nordic countries. Temperatures were below average over parts of Norway, Sweden and western Russia, and over Iceland and southern Greenland.
Seasonal average temperatures across the United States reflected the pattern seen in February, with warm and cold conditions in the east and west, respectively. The season as a whole was also notably warmer than average over much of eastern Canada, Alaska, northern Africa, the Middle East, central Asia, southern South America, and parts of Antarctica. In contrast, the season was colder than average across northern South America, northeast Russia, and over northern and eastern Australia.
The seasonal-average temperatures over sea are similar to the pattern of differences from 1991-2020 as already seen for February 2023. However, the seasonal average shows the La Niña conditions more clearly, and a region of cold anomalies off the east coast of Brazil and warm anomalies over the Labrador Sea are found.
The average temperature for Europe from December 2022 to February 2023 was
Temperatures averaged over the last 12 months were:
- above the 1991-2020 average over most land areas and a large part of the ocean surface
- well above average in particular over Greenland, western Europe and north-western Africa, north-western Siberia, central Asia, northern Australia and much of East Antarctica
- also above average over seas around Antarctica and in the European sector of the Arctic, and over much of the North Pacific, part of the South Pacific, the western North Atlantic and the southernmost South Atlantic
- above average over almost all of Europe
- below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, where the La Niña event that peaked in late 2020 reintensified later in 2021 and continued through 2022 into 2023
- below average over several other oceanic areas, including a large part of the southern Pacific and the western Indian Ocean
- below average over some land areas, including a region of Canada, South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica.
Running twelve-month averages of global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2023. The darker coloured bars are the averages for each of the calendar years from 1979 to 2023. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
ACCESS TO DATA | DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE
Running twelve-month averages of global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2023. The darker coloured bars are the averages for each of the calendar years from 1979 to 2023. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
ACCESS TO DATA | DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE
There is more variability in average European temperatures, but relatively dense observational coverage of the continent reduces uncertainty. The average for this latest twelve-month period is
Note on global values from ERA5 and other temperature datasets
There is general agreement among datasets that the period since 2015 is much warmer globally than any previous period. There is also agreement that global temperature has risen at an average rate close to 0.2°C per decade since the late 1970s. There is nevertheless still some spread between the datasets for recent years, such as for 2020 and 2021, and the annual average temperature anomalies for these years from ERA5 are generally higher than those from the five other datasets considered. The differences range from 0.01 to 0.07°C for 2016-2022. The range is 0.00 to 0.06°C if air temperature over sea is replaced by sea-surface temperature for ERA5 and the other dataset for which sea-surface temperature was not used by design. The remaining differences depend partly on the extent to which datasets represent the relatively warm conditions that have predominated over the Arctic and Antarctic during these years. Differences elsewhere in estimates of sea-surface temperature and surface air temperature over land have been further factors.
The surface air temperature analysis homepage explains more about the production and reliability of the values presented here, but has yet to be updated to include the new information on dataset spread mentioned above.
Read more about longterm temperature changes for the globe, the Arctic and Europe in the Temperature indicator.