# Tagged Questions

Monte Carlo simulation methods uses repeated random experiments to determine results.

2answers
2k views

### How useful is Markov chain Monte Carlo for quantitative finance?

Naively, it seems that Bayesian modeling, structural models particularly, would be quite useful in finance because of their ability to incorporate market idiosyncrasies and produce accurate ...
1answer
669 views

### Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution

Let's say we have a predictive distribution of expected returns for N assets. The distribution is not normal. We can interpret the dispersion in the distribution as reflection of our uncertainty (or ...
5answers
684 views

### Monte carlo methods for vanilla european options and Ito's lemma.

I understand that by applying Ito's lemma to the following SDE $$dX=\mu\,X\,dt+\sigma\,X\,dW$$ one obtains a solution to the above SDE which is as follows: {X}\left( t\right) =\mathrm{X}\left( ...
3answers
420 views

### Reference on Markov chain Monte Carlo method for option pricing?

I have to implement option pricing in c++ using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Is there some paper which describes this in detail so that I can learn from there and implement?
1answer
117 views

### Simulating property price index

I am trying to write a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate risk associated with some property based products. What is the most reasonable stochastic process to model property price index? Do people ...
4answers
950 views

### Methods for pricing options

I'm looking at doing some research drawing comparisons between various methods of approaching option pricing. I'm aware of the Monte Carlo simulation for option pricing, Black-Scholes, and that ...
2answers
445 views

### When to use Monte Carlo simulation over analytical methods for options pricing?

I've been using Monte Carlo simulation (MC) for pricing vanilla options with non-lognormal underlyings returns. I'm tempted to start using MC as my primary option-valuating technique as I can get ...
1answer
310 views

### Simulating the joint dynamics of a stock and an option

I want to know the joint dynamics of a stock and it's option for a finite number of moments between now and $T$ the expiration date of the option for a number of possible paths. Let $r_{\mathrm{s}}$ ...
2answers
382 views

### Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia?

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia on a security-by-security basis with a medium term horizon (say 3 month to 12 months horizon)? ...
1answer
397 views

### Monte carlo portfolio risk simulation

My objective is to show the distribution of a portfolio's expected utilities via random sampling. The utility function has two random components. The first component is an expected return vector ...
5answers
339 views

### portfolio optimization from empirical return distributions

I'd like to do a portfolio optimization of a set of ETF's but want to avoid traditional problems with normality assumptions in returns etc. Are there techniques that let me sample 'draws' from the ...
2answers
386 views

### Vanilla European options: Monte carlo vs BS formula

I have implemented a monte carlo simulation for a plain vanilla European Option and I am trying to compare it to the analytical result obtained from the BS formula. Assuming my monte carlo pricer is ...
2answers
351 views

### How to minimize the difference between a parametric VaR and a MC-VaR with lognormal assumption?

Given that we want to find the Value at Risk for a portfolio of stocks only, there are two main methods to proceed. In the problem, we also assume that stocks follow a geometric Brownian motion. A ...
1answer
240 views

### How to reduce variance in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Monte Carlo simulation?

I am working out a numerical integral for option pricing in which I'm simulating an interest rate process using a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. Each step in my Monte Carlo generated path is a ...
2answers
337 views

### How to transform process to risk-neutral measure for Monte Carlo option pricing?

I am trying to price an option using the Monte Carlo method, and I have the price process simulations as an inputs. The underlying is a forward contract, so at all times the mean of the simulations is ...
1answer
262 views

### Simulating conditional expectations

There is a multidimensional process X defined via its SDE (we can assume that its a diffusion type process), and lets define another process by $g_t = E[G(X_T)|X_t]$ for $t\leq T$. I would like to ...
1answer
129 views

### Should we apply practical constraints on the distribution of monte carlo paths?

to limit interest rate paths to a 'reasonable' range (if we could define reasonable). Now we calibrate log-normal skew and mean reversion monthly to robust basket of atm swaptions and in and out ...
0answers
117 views

### Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
4answers
705 views

### Stock Price Behavior and GARCH

In my (limited) understanding, the behavior of a stock price can be modeled using Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). According to the Hull book I'm currently reading, the discrete-time version of this ...
2answers
143 views

### Simulation of GBM

I have a question regarding the simulation of a GBM. I have found similar questions here but nothing which takes reference to my specific problem: Given a GBM of the form \$dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + ...
1answer
302 views

### Sanity check - How to price callables

This question is meant as a sanity check whether i got the workflow right for pricing callable bonds. If anyone finds a mistake, or has a suggestion, please answer. The workflow is: For every call ...
4answers
1k views

### How to get greeks using Monte-Carlo for arbitrary option?

Let's assume I have an arbitrary option that I can price using Monte-Carlo simulation. What is the general approach (i.e. without relying on specific option type) to calculating the greeks in this ...
1answer
713 views

### Simple model for option premium (for covered call simulation)?

Given a historical distribution of weekly prices and price changes for a stock, how can I estimate the the option premium for a nearly at-the-money (ATM) option, say with an expiration date 3 months ...
2answers
146 views

### Is drift rate the same as interest rate in risk-neutral random walk when using Monte Carlo for option pricing?

When using following risk-neutral random walk $$\delta S = rS \delta t + \sigma S \sqrt{\delta t} \phi$$ where $\phi \sim N(0,1)$. Now when a text mentions drift = 5% does that mean that interest ...
1answer
336 views

### How to apply quasi-Monte Carlo to path-dependent options?

Following up on my recent question on variance reduction in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Monte Carlo simulation, I would like to learn more about using a quasi-random sequence, such as Sobol or Niederreiter, ...
2answers
188 views

### What sort of order submission strategy would result in a random walk of trade prices?

I have written a simulation that matches buy and sell orders, keeps track of an order book and simulates trades. My first pass at order submission was to generate random orders around the bid/ask ...
1answer
209 views

### Divergence issue with my monte carlo pricer…

I am trying to implement a vanilla European option pricer with Monte Carlo and compare its result to the BS analytical formula's result. I noticed that as I increase (from 1 million to 10 millions) ...
2answers
199 views

### Generate correlated random variables from Normal and Gamma distributions

I want to generate a random vector $z$ of dimension $k+m$ with some given correlation matrix $\Sigma$, such that the first $k$ elements of the vector are distributed normally and the last $m$ elements ...
1answer
138 views

### Longstaff-Schwartz (Least Squares Monte Carlo) applied to American Options

I'm working on an implementation in R of Longstaff & Schwartz method from the this 2001 article. I've managed to build code that replicates their prices in table 1 (p. 127), but only for the ones ...
1answer
1k views

### Mersenne twister random number generator in Java for Monte Carlo Sim.

I am using the Mersenne twister random number generator in Java for a Monte Carlo Simulation. I need a uniform distribution of values between -1 and 1. My code is below (I am importing ...
4answers
157 views

### Other means of calibrating Heston models

I understand that the simplest way of calibrating a Heston model for volatility surface is to use Monte-Carlo to simulate the vol and stock price trajectories and then use the observed price to do a ...
2answers
1k views

### How do I estimate convergence in monte carlo methods?

I am experimenting with Monte Carlo methods. I'd like to measure/estimate convergence with a graph/chart. How do I do that? Can anyone please direct me to relevant documentation/links or even give me ...
1answer
182 views

### Picking from two correlated distributions

Can anyone provide a simple example of picking from two distributions, such that the two generated time series give a specified value of Pearson's correlation coefficient? I would like to do this in ...
1answer
104 views

### Value at Risk Monte-Carlo using Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD)

I have created a VBA program to calculate VaR by using Monte Carlo, I have simulated Brownian Motion. This method might be ok for 100% equity portfolio, but let's say this portfolio may have fixed ...
1answer
71 views

### Greeks of Basket

I am considering a product composed of 10 underlying assets. The maturity is 5 year. Each year if the performance of the equi-weighted portfolio reach a barrier, it pays a coupon. My question concern ...
1answer
135 views

### BDT model implementation

I am looking for a nice and readable description of how to implement BDT model: $d log(r(t)) = [\theta(t)-\frac{\sigma'(t)}{\sigma(t)}log(r(t))]dt + \sigma(t) dW$. I assume I already have ...
2answers
1k views

### Black Scholes and Monte Carlo implementations in Java [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: Is there an all Java options-pricing library (preferably open source) besides jquantlib? Can anyone recommend a library with an implementation of Black Scholes and Monte ...
0answers
36 views

### The observed negative interest rates should be modelled as the observed positive ones?

The presently observed negative interest rates for the recently emitted negative interest bonds by France, etc seem to increase in magnitude with the term. This might suggest that their modelling is ...
1answer
336 views

### What is Monte Carlo method? [closed]

What is Monte Carlo method, what are the alternatives and when you would choose to use it over it alternatives?
{"extraction_info": {"found_math": true, "script_math_tex": 0, "script_math_asciimath": 0, "math_annotations": 0, "math_alttext": 0, "mathml": 0, "mathjax_tag": 0, "mathjax_inline_tex": 12, "mathjax_display_tex": 2, "mathjax_asciimath": 0, "img_math": 0, "codecogs_latex": 0, "wp_latex": 0, "mimetex.cgi": 0, "/images/math/codecogs": 0, "mathtex.cgi": 0}, "config": {"markdown_headings": true, "markdown_code": true, "boilerplate_config": {"ratio_threshold": 0.18, "absolute_threshold": 20, "end_threshold": 15, "enable": true}, "remove_buttons": true, "remove_image_figures": true, "remove_link_clusters": true, "table_config": {"min_rows": 2, "min_cols": 3, "format": "github"}, "remove_chinese": true, "remove_edit_buttons": true, "extract_latex": true}, "english_confidence": 0.8923289179801941, "perplexity_flag": "middle"}