Follow local guidelines regarding social contact.Mild can be no symptoms at all to a mild flu like illness.Safe to go out on your own.We cannot comment on individual risk.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130 URL to a paper out of China - the 80% mild figure includes those with viral pneumonia not requiring respiratory support - this will absolutely be the worst viral illness many of us have had
COVID-19 FAQNote the information below may well now be out of date. If I get a chance I will update.READ THIS FIRSTIve written this to try to answer some common questions about COVID-19. I will try to answer any other questions you may have.Do not ask what your personal risk is due to whatever medical condition you might have. We simply dont know. Read whats written below - age is the most important factor in determining someones risk of severe disease (ie needing hospital admission) or death.Do not list your symptoms and ask if we can tell you whether you have COVID-19 or what precautionary measures you should take - we cant. You should follow you local public health guidance. If in doubt, isolate and only go to the hospital if absolutely necessary. Read below for more information.Clearly people arent actually reading this and just asking the above anyway, Im no longer going to reply to these questions. I generally reply to all questions, if I havent replied to yours its because youre either asking the above or your answer is contained within this post.What is it?COVID-19 means coronavirus disease 19 (as it was first reported to the WHO on NYE in 2019). It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2).Why is it so bad?COVID-19 is very contagious. Current data suggests an R0 (that is the number of people an infected person will go onto infect) of 2.5-3. By comparison your average seasonal flu with have an R0 of about 1.3. To put this into perspective, if you start with 10 people infected with seasonal flu, over ten infection cycles youll end up with about 138 infected people. With COVID-19 over the same ten cycles youll end up with tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of infected people. Bear in mind this is not what is going to happen, only what could happen if the a disease was left to spread without effort to slow it. Public health measures to contain it can massively reduce the actual transmission rate.How come more people dont have it?We only know how many confirmed cases we have. For every one person who is ill enough to be tested theres a large group who have mild symptoms only and arent tested. This number varies wildly but seems to be about 1 in 10 (ie for every confirmed case theres another 9 people out there who have COVID but arent symptomatic enough to get tested.How do I know if I have it?The most common symptoms are a fever and a persistent cough. Other flu like symptoms may be experienced. It will be very variable from one person to another. The only way to know is to be tested - access to that depends on whats being done where you live.Can I find out if Ive had it already?Right now no. There is a test in development.Am I going to die?About 1 in 8 of the KNOWN cases (ie only those who are confirmed to have COVID) will end up being hospitalised. About 1 in 6 of this group will become critically ill and need to be managed on an ICU. Of this ICU group about half will die.For the 7 out of 8 cases who arent hospitalised the symptoms are mild enough to be managed at home. Remember for each of these people theres another 8-9 who arent even aware they have it. Some people have no symptoms, for others its the same and a bout of flu.The good news is if youre young youll probably be fine. Young adults and children have excellent survival rates with deaths very rare. Older people on the other hand are at much greater risk. Amongst the 60-69yr age group mortality is around 3%, whilst in the over 80s its approaching 15% (again of confirmed cases).I have a co-morbidity!The biggest risk factor for higher mortality seems to be cardiovascular disease, followed by diabetes and hypertension, then chronic respiratory disease such as COPD.Age remains the biggest risk factor by far, if youre young and you have one of these that doesnt mean youre going to die. It would be sensible to minimise your exposure.Can I go out?All these restrictions on movement are about slowing spread. The big problem for hospitals now is a sudden tsunami of critically ill people that the usual ICU capacity cant cope with. Think of it like taking a train - go rush hour on a week day and its packed and you cant get a seat, much quieter in the middle of the day. Go on a weekend and theres no early morning peak so the passengers are divided amongst more trains thus everyone sits down, even though a similar number of people travel over the course of the day. If we can slow the rate if infection ultimately therell be the same number of cases but they wont all come at once so the hospitals will be able to manage them. Make sense?Every country is different so you should follow your local guidelines. Doctors on this forum come from all over the world, what is right where they live may not be right for you.What can I do to minimise my risk?Wash your hands. Regularly. Avoid large gatherings. Follow local rules and guidance. If you have symptoms then stay away from other people. Take this seriously, because it is.Do not ask if we can tell you whether you have COVID based on your symptoms alone - we cant.Should I stop taking my medication?There have been media reports that people taking certain types of mediation, specifically ACE inhibitors/A2RBs (eg ramipril/losartan) or NSAIDs (eg ibuprofen) are at higher risk of catching or complications of COVID. To my knowledge there is no good data to support this. You should continue to take your medication as normal unless instructed otherwise by your doctor.