WeatherBench Probability: A benchmark dataset for probabilistic medium-range weather forecasting along with deep learning baseline models
WeatherBench is a benchmark dataset for medium-range weather forecasting of
geopotential, temperature and precipitation, consisting of preprocessed data,
predefined evaluation metrics and a number of baseline models. WeatherBench
Probability extends this to probabilistic forecasting by adding a set of
established probabilistic verification metrics (continuous ranked probability
score, spread-skill ratio and rank histograms) and a state-of-the-art
operational baseline using the ECWMF IFS ensemble forecast. In addition, we
test three different probabilistic machine learning methods -- Monte Carlo
dropout, parametric prediction and categorical prediction, in which the
probability distribution is discretized. We find that plain Monte Carlo dropout
severely underestimates uncertainty. The parametric and categorical models both
produce fairly reliable forecasts of similar quality. The parametric models
have fewer degrees of freedom while the categorical model is more flexible when
it comes to predicting non-Gaussian distributions. None of the models are able
to match the skill of the operational IFS model. We hope that this benchmark
will enable other researchers to evaluate their probabilistic approaches.