How much of the excess savings will be spent?
Experience from WWII might be instructive  A big part of the bull case for the economic reopening is that household balance sheets are in phenomenal shape. High government transfers and a lack of ways to spend money led to a glut of savings in the last 16 months. If those savings are released, it will create a virtuous cycle of spending and growth, boosting everything. If not, the recovery will fall short of expectations. One argument against higher spending comes from Matthew Klein at The Overshoot . He points to the experience after WWII when there was a similar impulse in savings that was never paid down. Of course, after WWII consumers didn't have to deal with the greatest weapon ever created: The modern American advertising machine.