Do Republicans have a chance in New Jersey or Virginia in November?
ANALYSIS  More than a quarter of the way into the midterm cycle, Republicans are still looking for a signature victory that will signal a GOP wave in 2022. Republicans didnt put up much of a fight recently in New Mexicos 1st District, and there arent any other key congressional special elections on the calendar. So the GOP must look to the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races for an upset or two. Thats not going to be easy, based on the recent political trends of each state. But now that all four of the nominees have been chosen, Virginia and New Jersey can take their usual place in the oversize spotlight, considering they are two of the biggest elections in the off year.  As the parties shift gears to the general election, we can use the 2020 election results to quantify the challenge Republicans face this November. Then we can look at what the 2021 results might mean for the 2024 presidential race. Extrapolating gubernatorial results to next years House elections is more difficult. In the simplest terms, it would be a huge upset for Republicans to win Virginia or New Jersey this year. And the numbers help explain why.