Could ceasefire be a casualty after Pakistans accusation against India?
(This story originally appeared in on Jul 06, 2021)  With Pakistan NSA Moeed Yusuf declaring that the blast on June 23 outside terror leader Hafiz Mohammed Saeed s home in Lahore was the work of Indian intelligence agencies, its clear the nascent ceasefire process, which began with guns on the LOC falling silent on February 25, may have run its course.Yusuf told a TV channel that there would no longer be any back-channel talks with India largely because the neighbour failed to heed Pakistans concerns and did not reverse nullification of Art 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. He claimed India approached Pakistan for talks  "It was India that approached us. They (India) said they wanted to talk on all disputed issues, including on Kashmir." He added Pakistan had clearly conveyed its demand for reversal of the August, 2019 move for talks to resume.While Yusuf tagged India's alleged refusal to restore Article 370 as reason for closing the doors on any likely engagement, such a consideration did not seem at work earlier when army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa urged that Pakistan must consider "geo-economics" instead of just "geo-politics" and the Imran Khan government considered easing of trade.Yusufs statement on the Johar Town blast glosses over that it was at the home of a UN designated global terror group, Lashkar-e-Taiba , and that its chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, supposedly in prison, was according to numerous reports at his residence at the time of the attack.Indian officials see this as the beginning of a Pakistan narrative against India. It will be difficult for Pakistan to sell the story of a terror attack by India against the mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Instead, they expect Pakistan to try to make the case that India is responsible for creating internal instability.Pakistan has been stunned at the pace of Talibans advances in Afghanistan in the past weeks. Like others, they too expect a period of civil war like situation in Afghanistan, and worry Pakistan could face some blowback, in terms of refugees as well as a concern that the anti-Pakistan TTP could tie up with the Afghan Taliban Pakistan retains a significant hold on the Afghan Taliban leadership, particularly the more virulent factions. But Islamabad-Rawalpindi entertain fears that a Taliban that chafes under Pakistani domination could help other terror outfits against Pakistan. That has the potential of turning the entire idea of strategic depth on its head.A narrative against India could be tried out for sympathy votes in the West. The Pakistan parliamentary committee on national security heard last week that the government wants a better relationship with US, while not giving up its ties with China. Reports said Pakistani lawmakers asserted that they did not want to be seen to be in Chinas pocket.That could have implications for the Pakistan-China relationship particularly as the US-China rivalry deepens every day. Pakistan could reach for a more normal relationship with India, but this might have implications for its ties with China. Or it could, as seems more likely, seek to paint India black in the West  there are reports to suggest Pakistan may be using a smart and coordinated media strategy and a diaspora outreach for the purpose. PM Khan has already been interviewed in the western media, and he has written opeds too.Islamabad might reckon that with Modi allegedly having lost support in the western civil society and media, it might be an easier climb for Imran Khan and the Pakistani narrative.