What will happen when Biden and Erdogan meet next week?
Joe Biden will leave for Europe on Thursday on his first overseas trip as US president, heading to a much-anticipated inaugural summit with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The last time the leaders of these two states met, in November 2019, feels like an eternity. Weeks earlier, Ankara launched a military assault on a predominantly Kurdish area in northeastern Syria days after former US President Donald Trump vowed to destroy the Turkish economy if Erdogan continued the invasion. In light of his partial withdrawal of US troops, Mr. Trump hoped to protect the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main fighting force of the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS. Ankara sees the SDF as a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is labeled a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the EU and which has been leading an insurgency in Turkey since the 1980s. The Turkish assault continued, pushing back the SDF while drawing international condemnation and war crimes charges from the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels. But Ankaras most disturbing move had come months before, when Turkey began receiving the S-400 missile systems it had purchased from Russia despite repeated protests from NATO allies and threats of sanctions from the United States. A group of lawmakers even urged Mr. Trump to cancel his invitation, but Mr. Erdogan was eventually welcomed into the White House. The US president left little doubt about his affection for the Turkish leader, such as when he spoke of the United States close ties with the Kurds. By the way, he added, pointing to Mr. Erdogan. I think the president has a great relationship with the Kurds. Many Kurds are currently living in Turkey, and they are happy and being taken care of. A pandemic and 19 months later, the Turkish president pledged last week to take care of the 12,000 residents, mostly Kurds, of the Iraqi refugee camp of Makhmour. Most fled Turkey there in the 1990s, when violence with the PKK was at its height. Ankara sees the camp as an incubator for the PKK, an allegation that contains some truth, and Erdogan has threatened to expand Turkeys ongoing military incursion deeper into Iraq and clean up the camp. A woman holds up a sign as Iraqi Kurds demonstrate in the northeastern city of Sulaimaniyah on June 5 to protest a Turkish offensive in northern Iraq. AFP    Enter Joe Biden, who in a late 2019 interview with the New York Times called the Turkish leader an autocrat and spoke of emboldening the Turkish opposition to force him to resign. Mr Erdogans adviser Ibrahim Kalin later said that Mr Bidens analysis arose out of sheer ignorance, arrogance and hypocrisy. Things have improved little in the meantime. Days after taking office, the Biden administration criticized Turkeys imprisonment of political enemies like Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas and philanthropist Osman Kavala. In April, Biden became the first US president in 40 years to recognize the Armenian genocide, upsetting Turkey, which refuses this label. He also waited three months after taking office to speak with Erdogan on the phone, which many saw as an intentional affront. There are other obstacles to friendly relations, such as the potentially massive fine imposed on Turkish state-owned Halkbank for violating sanctions against Iran and the US refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish preacher. whom Ankara accuses of a failed 2016 coup. As detailed previously, relations between Turkey and the United States are now largely defined by disagreements, but few fear that this constantly feuding couple will divorce. Some expect Biden-Erdogan talks to mirror the Trump-Erdogan bromance  Seeking to lay the groundwork for a positive summit, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited Turkey last week, met Mr. Kalin and reaffirmed that Turkey was a reliable strategic partner and NATO ally before announcing nearly $ 240 million in new humanitarian aid for Syrians. Biden and Erdogan will meet on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, and it is within the alliance, and on helping the Syrians, that they are likely to find common ground. Ankara thumbed its nose at the alliance last month, pushing NATO to mute its condemnation of Belarus and refrain from imposing sanctions on Minsk for forcing the hijacking of a Ryanair flight to arrest a prominent dissident. Days later, Erdogans government offered a fig leaf, announcing that it would send home the Russian missile experts overseeing the installation of the S-400 in Turkey. The message is that Turkey has no plans to activate the Russian missile system, although it hopes to keep them close at hand. That may not be enough to appease the United States, which sanctioned Turkey in December for its purchase of the S-400, as required by its new National Defense Authorization Act. The updated language of the NDAA is not owned, Aaron Stein, research director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said in a tweet last week, referring to Turkeys possession of S-400. This is the position of the United States now. It is not good to speak in a working group. Things look bleak. This may mean Mr Biden will agree to nothing less than Turkey destroying or shipping the S-400s to a common ally, eliminating fears that Natos security apparatus will operate alongside Russian-made systems. But whatever the situation of the S-400s, Turkey and NATO have shown in recent days their willingness to unite their forces against common enemies. Last week Turkey struck a $ 130 million deal with NATO to handle security at Kabul International Airport after Western forces soon depart. The Taliban have never attacked Turkish targets, which underscores NATOs value as a predominantly Muslim member. Also last week, Mr Kalin and Ms Thomas-Greenfield negotiated an agreement for the two countries to work together to ensure the uninterrupted flow of aid to northern Syria. This is a clear stance against Russia, which threatened to veto the expected UN Security Council reauthorization of the Idlibs Bab Al Hawa border post next month. Biden is expected to raise the issue of Syrian aid and Bab Al Hawa when he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 15, the day after his summit with Erdogan. Ankara and Moscow have not been in ideal conditions lately, as Mr Putin saw banning commercial flights to Turkey for six weeks in response to Turkish arms sales to Ukraine. There is room for greater NATO cooperation with regard to Syria and the Syrians. Mr Biden decided to prioritize humanitarian issues in Syria, while the EU has relied for years on Turkey to provide aid and sanctuary to Syrian refugees and displaced people to prevent them from settling in. direct towards the border of the EU. Europe wants growing stability in northern Syria, which can only be achieved through cooperation with the United States, which maintains a military presence in the northeast and close ties with the SDF, and Turkey. , with its occupied zones. Turkeys forays into Afrin and northeastern Syria have sparked accusations of ethnic cleansing, as has its plans to resettle up to 2 million Syrian refugees in areas it controls. Yet, this is all the more reason for the trio of NATO members to work together militarily and diplomatically to provide humanitarian aid and housing for refugees and displaced people, as well as to strengthen security in Idlib and crack down. a possible resurgence of ISIS. We will continue to work closely with Turkey, a NATO member state, to stabilize our southern neighborhoods, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. Some expect the Biden-Erdogan talks to mirror the Trump-Erdogan bromance. But the momentum seems to favor cooperation rather than conflict: Right now Mr Erdogan is facing his lowest poll count ever and record values for the Turkish lira, which could make him more open to compromise. Moreover, the current presidents have known each other for years and are mostly on good terms. The last time the two met was five summers ago in Ankara, just weeks after the failed coup. The Turkish President and the then US Vice President under Barack Obama discussed the still relevant issues regarding Syrian refugees, ISIS, the SDF and the extradition of Mr. Gulen. During a visit to Istanbul in 2014, Mr. Biden had a private conversation with Mr. Erdogan which lasted four hours. I have great respect for the president, Mr. Biden said afterwards. Weve always had a direct, frank, and open discussion on every issue because thats what friends do. David Lepeska is a columnist on Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs for The National