Could Trumps war on Lisa Murkowski help turn Alaskas Senate seat blue?
When Donald Trump on Friday endorsed right-wing extremist Kelly Tshibaka as his choice for Senator from Alaska in 2022, most observers focused on how he was getting revenge on Senator Lisa Murkowski, the outgoing opponent. of Tshibaka. But perhaps they missed a bigger story: Trumps backing could open the door for Democrats to overthrow the Alaska Senate seat. Heres the reason: Alaska will introduce a new ranked voting system in 2022, unlike any other in the country. It first plans a non-partisan open primary in August, from which the first four voters will advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation. If one of the candidates then obtains more than 50 percent (+1) of the votes in this four-man race, the election is over. But heres the innovative part: If no candidate wins a simple majority, it starts an electronic battle for the second-place votes of the others. Heres how it works: If there is no 50% (+1) winner, the candidate with the fewest first choice votes will be eliminated. People who voted for that candidate as their first choice would have their votes redistributed to the person they selected as their second choice. If this does not produce a majority winner, the process is repeated, with the third ranked having their second place votes redistributed. At this point, whichever of the two remaining candidates with the most votes would be declared the winner, without a second round. In the past traditional system, Tshibaka would have been the big favorite to win a Republican primary against Murkowski and then to win. The states Republican Party censored Murkowski in March for, among other things, voting for Trumps second impeachment and for voting to certify the election of President Joe Biden. She wouldnt have stood a chance in a GOP primary. But the advent of the open top four primary spared Murkowski from having to face Tshibaka among the Republicans in Alaska. And that changed everything. Now Tshibaka will likely have to face Murkowski, a leading Democrat, and independent in the November 2022 general election. If she cannot win the simple majority in such a four-way race, she will have to hope that some supporters of her rivals chose her for second place. It is a heavy burden. Heres a first look at the race, based on a Change Research poll of likely Alaskan voters taken less than a month ago:  Tshibaka: 39% Al Brut: 25% Murkowski 19% John Howe 4%  Gross (who has yet to announce a candidacy for 2022) received 41.2% of the Senate vote in 2020 as a Democratic challenger, losing to Senator Daniel Sullivan. Howe, the Alaska Independence Party candidate, received 4.7% in that race. Using these poll numbers as hypothetical, Tshibaka is 48-39% overtaken by her collective rivals. And her number only increases if the 3rd and 4th place supporters nominate her as their second choice. One big question Tshibaka faces is how many voters in Gross, Murkowski and Howe would be willing to vote for a homophobic extremist. And Tshibaka certainly fits that description, as posted on April 27 on RawStory.com:  Tshibaka wrote in favor of discredited conversion therapy and blamed homosexuality on childhood sexual abuse. Twilight book and film series as evil. Some say this book is harmless, that it promotes Christian values and that it doesnt promote anything bad at all. But Satan doesnt generally look repulsive, horrible and evil on the outside, he said. she wrote in an October 2009 blog post. Make no mistake: Twilight is a perfect example of how the enemy twists, perverts and ridicules the things of God. . Most recently, there was this from CNN in April:  We dont know the outcome of the 2020 election, Tshibaka replied when asked if she agreed with Trump that he won the 2020 election. I still have questions, and I think millions of other Americans have it too.   None of these quirks are likely to persuade Democrats, Independents and RINOs to put Tshibaka on the second place line. And if they dont, she would need to find a way to get a huge Republican grassroots stake in a state known for its independence from mainstream politics. Its unclear how much Trump is helping. He won Alaska twice, but the 52.8% majority he won in 2020 was his fourth lowest total among the Red States. This is in part because Alaska had the highest percentage of independent votes in the country for president. This is not an ideal setting for Trumps demagoguery. Calling Murkowski the failed candidate (who) misrepresents his state and his country even worse  as he did according to Politico last month  is not a good strategy to recruit second-choice votes for Tshibaka among the Murkowski fans. Trumps promise to travel 5,000 miles to campaign against Murkowski is also not. This is also not what he said on Friday, as reported by the New York Times. Lisa Murkowski is bad for Alaska, Trump said in a statement, criticizing her vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Home Secretary. Murkowski must go!   For his part, Murkowski is not to be underestimated. She has won three full terms in the Senate since her controversial appointment to the seat in 2002 by her father, then governor. Frank Murkowski. She never won 50% of the vote in winning her election, but she even succeeded as an independent when she was defeated in the 2010 Republican primaries after a Tea Party uprising. This time it might be different. She was then not up against a competitive challenger on the Democratic side like Gross, a politically independent center-right and pro-gun doctor who raised $ 19 million for his first electoral foray in 2020. The Change Research poll found that Murkowski had a negative overall approval rating of 59-26% among Alaskans, including a surprisingly negative 84-6 in his own Republican party. Its an uphill battle at best. Still, if Gross doesnt show up and the Democrats dont field a serious contender in his place, Murkowski could score a triumph in the end even after finishing well behind Tshibaka in the first round. That is, if it can keep Tshibaka far enough below 50 percent in the first round. This is a scenario anticipated by the reformers who put the classified vote on the 2020 ballot: a candidate who divides can no longer take advantage of a narrow victory in the primaries to come to power thanks to electoral mathematics. And the more a candidate alienates his rivals, the harder it is to increase the number of votes because those rivals are eliminated in the ranking process. Trumps negative attacks could eventually backfire and help save Murkowski, which would be his worst nightmare. But for now, the most plausible prospect is that Alaska could turn blue  for at least that Senate seat  thanks to the classified vote. Obviously, it is far too early to know, but not too early to understand how the new process works. For a state that prides itself on being Americas last great desert, the 2022 elections could live up to that claim. You can read more about the new voting process here and here. What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online  LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. 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