What Explains Ethiopias Stunning Military Reversal in Tigray?
By Andrew Korybko  Global Research, June 30, 2021  All Global Research articles can be read in 51 languages by activating the Translate Website drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version). Visit and follow us on Instagram at @crg_globalresearch. ***  Addis Ababas unexpected decision to implement a unilateral ceasefire in its rebellious Tigray Region following eight months of war there was influenced by its opponents unconventional military advantage fighting on their mountainous home turf, neighboring Eritreas military withdrawal from the conflict following international criticism of its activities, and the immense Western pressure put upon the aspiring Horn of Africa hegemon to prevent what the US predicted might become the worlds worst famine there. Observers were shocked by Mondays announcement that the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from the capital of the countrys rebellious Tigray Region and implemented a unilateral ceasefire until the end of the planting season there thats usually sometime in September. Addis Ababa had presented its actions there as a law enforcement operation against separatists led by the previously leading force of the former ruling party, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), which was later designated as terrorists. Government accounts claimed that the ENDF was winning though these assertions couldnt be independently verified the entire time due to the difficulty that independent journalists had in accessing the war-torn region. The protracted conflict there also led to accusations of human rights abuses by all sides, and the US recently warned that Tigray risked suffering from the worlds worst famine if the conflict didnt end soon. There are several possible explanations for this dramatic turn of events. The first is that the TPLF commanded an unconventional military advantage by fighting on their mountainous home turf. The allegations of human rights abuses by the ENDF might have also inspired a massive recruitment drive among the locals if they began to view the conflict through a national liberation lense, thereby making it impossible for the military to indefinitely control the region. Neighboring Eritrea, which also militarily intervened in the region, earlier accused the US of supporting the TPLF so its possible that some degree of foreign backing was responsible for the militants regrouping in recent months and thus being able to more effectively launch their latest counteroffensive that coincided with the countrys long-delayed elections last week. Regardless of however they came to be so strong, the outcome is still the same, and its that the ENDF were just defeated by the TPLF. The second explanation concerns Eritreas withdrawal from the conflict zone under international pressure. This former Ethiopian region recently emerged as the Horn of Africas most influential country after its decisive intervention in Tigray at least temporarily prevented its neighbors Balkanization which could have been disastrous for the region since its Africas second most populous country. Eritrea was also accused of human rights abuses and still largely remains a pariah state. It could have been the case that its leadership concluded that it might not be able to withstand any more international pressure so it decided to pull out of the conflict for now. Whatever its strategic calculations may have been, its departure from Tigray seems to have directly affected the ENDFs ability to retain control of the region. This could explain the militarys unexpected defeat at the hands of the TPLF, which if truly the case, would then show how much stronger Eritrea is than Ethiopia. The third explanation concerns the US dire warning that up to 900,000 of the regions approximately 6 million people faced the threat of what it predicted might become the worlds worst famine if the conflict continues to drag on. This placed tremendous pressure upon the aspiring Horn of Africa hegemon and especially its leader Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize two years ago for peacefully ending Ethiopias nearly two-decade-long conflict with Eritrea. Just like its neighbor, Ethiopia was quickly on the path to becoming a pariah state in Western eyes and would have arguably been the worlds largest one had that scenario come to pass, which it still might. PM Abiy earlier claimed that foreign aid might be exploited as a front to arm the TPLF so his volte face speaks volumes about how desperate the military and also possibly the international political situation had become that hed order the ENDFs withdrawal in spite of that. With these three interconnected reasons in mind for explaining Ethiopias stunning military reversal in Tigray, its now time to consider the strategic consequences of this development. The TPLF will likely consolidate and become stronger than ever, including as a result of foreign support thatll enter the region disguised as aid. Addis Ababa wont have much if any influence over this de facto independent region of the country, but a continuation war might break out after the planting season ends sometime in September if the ENDF also successfully regroup by then. It also might not, though, especially if a large part of the reason for the ENDFs withdrawal was to reduce international pressure resulting from the US dire warning of the worlds worst impending famine. PM Abiy might not have the political will to risk the Western political and economic (sanctions) response to restarting the conflict under those conditions. Unlike during the (first?) Ethiopian Civil War, the TPLF is unlikely to make a run on the capital but it might pursue hostile forces a bit beyond Tigray. Thats because the people of the neighboring Amhara Region and Eritrea will fight to the death to stop the TPLFs invasion. Ethno-regional animosity is at an all-time high and Amhara militias have also reportedly been active in Tigray during the recent conflict in order to reclaim territory that they believe is theirs. Its extremely unlikely that theyd roll over and let the TPLF sweep through their region en route to Addis Ababa in order to overthrow the same Prime Minister whos emboldened them and their claims on parts of Tigray. This state of affairs suggests that the conflict might remain frozen for the indefinite future, thus creating a prime opportunity for foreign meddling. In addition, the TPLF might activate its nationwide network of agents to stage attacks behind enemy lines and incite rebellion in other regions. The conflict between PM Abiy and the TPLF is of an existential nature. Each regards the other as illegitimate and a threat to Ethiopia. PM Abiy sees the TPLF as a terrorist group thatll do anything to return to power even if this includes provoking another civil war while they believe that hes the one thats ruining the country through his ambitious socio-economic reforms that risk opening up the same Pandoras Box that they tried so hard to keep closed during their rule. In other words, they blame one another for Balkanizing Ethiopia, and this worst-case scenario might actually happen whether in full or in part if the conflict isnt politically resolved as soon as possible. Regrettably, no such peaceful resolution appears possible since neither side is willing to compromise on their maximalist aims: PM Abiy wants to wipe out the TPLF while they want to overthrow him. This creates the ideal space for foreign meddling, which will certainly exacerbate the conflict. *  Note to readers: Please click the share buttons above or below. Follow us on Instagram, @crg_globalresearch. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc. This article was originally published on OneWorld. Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, Chinas One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Featured image is from OneWorld  Related Articles  24 November 2020  INTERVIEW OF MOHAMED HASSAN This is not a war between Ethiopia and Somalia . This is a war of the USA against all the peoples of the Horn of Africa. Analysis by Mohamed Hassan To understand what is happening in the Horn of Africa, the nature of the TPLF-regime of  10 January 2007  25 June 2019The original source of this article is Global ResearchCopyright  Andrew Korybko, Global Research, 2021  https://www.globalresearch.ca/what-explains-ethiopia-military-reversal-tigray/5748996