Have Covid layoffs killed some jobs for good?
Presented by Walmart  Editors Note: Weekly Shift is a weekly version of POLITICO Pros daily Employment & Immigration policy newsletter, Morning Shift. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the days biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. Quick Fix  A data point getting lost in Washington policymakers' debates over complaints of a labor shortage and slower-than-expected job growth: A large slice of workers laid off during the Covid pandemic are reporting that their jobs arent coming back. The number of people who lost their jobs permanently was 3.2 million in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1.9 million higher than pre-pandemic levels. A recent Fed study estimated there were around 200,000 more permanent business closures during the pandemic, on top of the average of 600,000 establishments that usually shut their doors each year. These permanent losses are likely to prolong the countrys economic recovery, our Megan Cassella has reported. While a furloughed worker is likely to get their job back with businesses returning to normal operations following widespread vaccination and relaxed health restrictions, a permanently laid-off worker has to wait for an employer to create a new job, then apply and get matched with the right one, Megan explained. IN OTHER WORDS Those jobs, that labor demand, went away when those businesses closed, Heidi Shierholz, director of policy at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute and a former chief economist at the Labor Department, told MS in an email. It will take a little time for new businesses to be formed to take the place of businesses that were lost. So at this point, there are still not nearly enough jobs to go around; right now we still primarily have a labor demand problem.  Workers reentering the labor market had a harder time finding work in April and May, added AFL-CIO chief economist Bill Spriggs. You have to go through the whole search process. And despite what employers are saying, employers are not hiring [just] anybody, Spriggs told MS. Employers are seeing a lot of applications. If they're being honest, what they really mean is, we're not seeing the ones we would like. said Spriggs. Nothing in the data says this is a piece of cake, he added  workers cant just walk into a job.  ANOTHER FIGURE TO WATCH: 2.6 million people have retired since February 2020, according to estimates from the Dallas Fed, The Wall Street Journals Paul Kiernan reports. Federal Reserve officials meeting this week have long said a key condition for raising interest rates is a return to maximum employment, Kiernan writes. Their evolving views about how much job growth that will entail could lead them to roll back support for the economy sooner than previously expected.  MORE ON LABOR MARKET CHURN: Forget Going Back to the OfficePeople Are Just Quitting Instead, from The Wall Street Journal  GOOD MORNING. Its Monday, June 14, and this is Morning Shift, your tipsheet on employment and immigration news. Send tips, exclusives and suggestions to [email protected] and [email protected] Follow us on Twitter at @Eleanor_Mueller and @RebeccaARainey. A message from Walmart: When you buy tea at Walmart, Walmart buys more tea from U.S. businesses like Milos Tea Company. That means Milos can hire more employees, supporting communities in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Walmart just announced a $350 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing that will support more than 750,000 new American jobs. Learn more about Walmarts commitment to American jobs and communities. DRIVING THE WEEK  SENATE HELP VOTES ON OSHA, POLICY NOMINEES: The Senate HELP Committee will vote Wednesday on a handful of President Joe Bidens labor nominees, including Doug Parker, whos been tapped to be head of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. If approved, the nominations will then be cleared for a vote before the full Senate. But dont hold your breath: Were still waiting for several other labor nominees to be scheduled for floor consideration, like Bidens pick for DOLs No. 2, Julie Su. (Her nomination was advanced out of committee back in April.) Immigration  HEARING ON DREAM ACT: The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing Tuesday morning on H.R. 6 (117), the "American Dream and Promise Act of 2021." BYE-BYE, BORDER CASH: The Biden administration is calling on Congress to cancel billions of dollars set aside for former President Donald Trumps border wall so the White House is not forced to spend the cash on the U.S.-Mexico barrier, our Caitlin Emma and Connor OBrien report. More than $2 billion Trump diverted from military construction projects will be returned, funding 66 military projects in 11 states, three territories and 16 countries, they write. EYES ON THE MONEY: Biden is facing a federal watchdog probe for pausing billions of dollars in wall funding, Caitlin and Connor report. Dozens of Republicans, meanwhile, have argued the move is a violation of federal budget law. MORE IMMIGRATION NEWS: US closes Trump-era office for victims of immigrant crime, from The Associated Press   Central American women are fleeing domestic violence amid a pandemic. Few find refuge in U.S. from The Washington Post  In the Workplace  COMPUTER CHIP SHORTAGE HITS RESTAURANTS: The pandemic-induced worldwide shortage of computer chips is creating more headaches for already short-staffed restaurants, many of which rely on computerized systems to take customer orders, Laura Reiley reports for The Washington Post. The companies that make the equipment are scrambling to come up with workarounds, like online payment and scannable tabletop codes that allow customers to order from their phones, Reiley reports. For an industry that has been decimated and rebuilt during the coronavirus pandemic, the chip shortage could change the dining-out landscape, erasing thousands of server and bartender jobs forever.  TEACHERS FIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON LESSONS ABOUT RACISM: Thousands of educators and others gathered virtually and in person at historic locations in more than 20 cities to make clear that they would resist efforts in at least 15 Republican-led states to restrict what teachers can say in class about racism, sexism and oppression in America, Valerie Strauss reported for The Washington Post. RIDE-HAILING APPS GET PRICIER: Uber and Lyft rides are getting more expensive as ride-hailing apps pass off the costs of the ongoing labor shortage directly to their customers, Kate Conger reports for The New York Times. KEY QUOTE: Uber and Lyft, by employing drivers as contractors rather than full-on employees, have put the riders in the position of employing these contractors, Wendy Edelberg, the director of the Hamilton Project and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told the Times. Every time we open our Uber app, maybe we feel a little bit like the small business that cant fill the vacancy after putting up the Help Wanted sign.  Uber and Lyft have poured money into extra incentives for drivers, like cash bonuses for completing a certain number of rides, Conger writes. But the incentives do not appear to be as effective as they were before the pandemic.  McHACK: McDonalds Hit by Data Breach, from The Wall Street Journal  On the Hill  SBA PROMISES VENUE RESCUE PROGRAM REVAMP: The Small Business Administration is vowing to revamp its beleaguered $16 billion rescue program for live entertainment venues, after severe operational problems resulted in only a fraction of the aid reaching businesses devastated by the pandemic, our Zachary Warmbrodt reports. : The agency revealed this week that it had only approved $128 million in so-called Shuttered Venue Operators Grants to 90 applicants, despite receiving 14,000 applications seeking $11.4 billion since April.  The SBA, a relatively small agency that has taken on an outsize economic relief role during the Covid-19 pandemic, has struggled with the venue program from the beginning. The grants marked a departure from the agency's primary focus, which is guaranteeing loans to small businesses.  BIDENs SBA NOMINEE ON THE HILL THIS WEEK: The Senate Small Business Committee will meet Wednesday at 2 p.m. to consider the nomination of Dilawar Syed to be the No. 2 at the SBA. A message from Walmart: Walmarts $350 billion, 10-year U.S. manufacturing commitment will support new and existing jobs, help small businesses and entrepreneurs, and bolster communities. As part of this commitment, Walmart will also work with stakeholders to identify and overcome top-down barriers to U.S. production, paving the way for a more sustainable supply chain and supporting more American jobs. Learn how Walmart is strengthening its commitment to American jobs and communities. What We're Reading   Northam unveils limited plan for hiring bonuses, but faces skepticism over minimum wage, funding, from The Richmond Times Dispatch   Miners Try to Get Covid-19 Vaccines Into Areas Where Shots Are Scarce, from The Wall Street Journal  Hotel industry emerges from pandemic with new business model, possibly fewer workers, from The Washington Post   A Little More Remote Work Could Change Rush Hour a Lot, from The New York Times   Judge halts billions in debt relief for farmers of color as conservative group for White farmers sue, from The Washington Post   German Parliament Backs Milestone Gender Quota for Company Boards, from The New York Times  Drug distributor McKesson docked CEOs pay over the opioid crisis. He still made $15 million. from The Washington Post   How Working From Home Has Changed Employees, from The Wall Street Journal  THATS ALL FOR MORNING SHIFT! Follow us on Twitter Eleanor Mueller @eleanor_mueller    Rebecca Rainey @rebeccaarainey