Why will France not succeed in getting Lebanon out of its crisis?
Macron said he would continue to defend a roadmap he proposed in September 2020 to put maximum pressure on the various parties. The French presidents statement comes weeks after France threatened to impose sanctions on those responsible for the political blockade and announced that some Lebanese personalities would not enter its territory, and a few days before the international conference to be held on June 17 to support the Lebanese army. This meeting, chaired by France in close cooperation with the United Nations, is primarily aimed at providing urgent assistance to the military to avoid its collapse. Despite all these efforts from the French side and friendly countries, the situation continues to slip into the abyss in Lebanon. In this regard, the head of the European Institute for Security and Orientalism, Emmanuel Dupuy, explained to Sky News Arabia that France is one of the first countries that took the initiative to visit Lebanon immediately after the Beirut explosion on August 4, 2020, as the French president himself moved to the spot two days after The incident, then he made a second visit in September and sent Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on a third visit. In a precedent Macron received the commander of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, at the Elysee Palace. He added, Yes, France promised and threatened many things, but the actions on the ground did not have a significant impact. The French president made promises that France would unilaterally guarantee solutions to the Lebanese crisis, which he was unable to do.  On the reasons for this gap between the supposed influence and the real influence on the Lebanese issue, Debuis adds, Firstly, the weakness of the application of sanctions by the French side to the corrupt political officials accused of fraud by the Lebanese people who came out against them in the demonstrations in 2019. We only heard recently about the opening of an investigation. against the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh. He also considers that the French president underestimated when he trusted the ability of the Lebanese political class to form a government and carry out reforms, since by remaining in power they emptied the presidents initiative of its content and dimensions. On the other hand, the head of the European Institute for Security and Orientalism believes that Frances promise to mobilize the international community to provide financial assistance to Lebanon, and its expression of its willingness to cover some economic losses and unemployment problems, was a promise that far exceeded its ability. This is because, according to him, the opinion of the international community is divided on the Lebanese issue, especially that the agenda of the United States and Russia is different from Frances. For example, Washington considers Hezbollah a terrorist party, which France does not recognize. Also, Russia does not have an interest in the success of the French initiative because it has Economic ambitions are mainly represented in investments related to gas. It also excluded Turkey from its international efforts to mobilize support, even though Ankara plays an active role in the region. He concludes, All these contradictions and misdiagnoses on the French side contributed to making France a source of words of love for Lebanon, but it does not offer actions that indicate it.  In the face of this initial failure to resolve the Lebanese crisis, the World Bank expects price inflation to reach 100 percent in 2021, which will necessarily result in a deterioration in the value of the currency and price inflation, and thus the decline in the value of the lira will continue, against the dollar.