What Really Happened To Jack Ma?
Indeed. Start with this: We know more about the whereabouts and the condition of Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Putins prize prisoner, than we do about Jack Ma. Jack Ma, CEO of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, speaks during his visit at the Vivatech startups ... [+] and innovation fair, in Paris on May 16, 2019. (Photo by Philippe LOPEZ / AFP) (Photo credit should read PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  Last Fall Jack Ma was rich, and famous, and we knew all about him, followed his every move. He was in fact the richest man in China, and the most famous living Chinese person (according to polls). He was poised to crown his career with a triumphant public offering for his company, The Ant Group, the largest Fintech company in the world. The markets loved him. His high-tech business empire  which included Alibaba, the Amazon of China  was valued at well over $1 Trillion. He was an entrepreneur, an innovator, and charismatic spokesman for Success in the New China. But in Mas charisma there was a dimension beyond. His showmanship skills were extraordinary. Alibabas stadium-sized company celebrations were choreographed into extravaganzas the equal of any Super Bowl halftime show, and Ma himself was always the star  He was truly (to borrow Dengs word) Glorious  HANGZHOU, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 10: Alibaba founder Jack Ma performs on the stage during Alibaba's 20th ... [+] anniversary gala at Hangzhou Olympic Center Stadium on September 10, 2019 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images) VCG via Getty Images  Then he disappeared. Ma last took the public stage on October 24 of last year, in Shanghai. He gave a speech  The Speech, as it will be known  in which he was bluntly critical of the Chinese financial industry establishment. Days later, the authorities responded. They killed the Ant IPO, and summoned Ma to Beijing for regulatory interviews. And the curtain came down. Jack Ma hasnt been seen since  if by seen we mean being actually observed, and verifiably photographed, in public, and at liberty. Instead, through a credulous press, we have been treated to a series of bizarre sightings.  There have been (as far as I can tell) just 6 reports of Jack Mas doings since October, all of them strange, suspiciously vague, and indirect. 1. The Hostage Video  The first sighting occurred three months after he disappeared. As the story unfolded, it was a cold Sunday in January. Jack Ma is said to have driven hours into the countryside to an obscure location, accompanied by a government film crew, to make a reappearance video, which was later posted online by the government news agency. He arrived unannounced at a small, out-of-the-way elementary school in rural Tonglu. The playgrounds were empty and only a handful of teachers were on campus. No one was expecting Chinas most flamboyant entrepreneur He was at the school to shoot a short, politically safe clip to let the world know he was still free. But the appearance was being carefully stage-managed and teachers vying for selfies with Ma were turned down.  The video is just 43 seconds long. There is nothing in it to identify time or place. Ma is subdued, and speaks only in Chinese (although he is a fluent and charismatic communicator in English). He shows little emotion or affect, there is no flamboyance (the word perhaps most often used to describe Jack in normal times). He says nothing about the Ant IPO, or anything else related to his trillion dollar empire. His ultra-brief message is addressed to a small (unseen) audience of rural public school teachers. It conveys nothing of significance. It is a strange performance. He does not seem himself. It has been called a sort of hostage video.  In any case, supporters of Jack seized on this clip, spare as it is, with great relief, as proof of life (in the words of his friend and biographer, Duncan Clark). Alibabas market-value rose by $40 Bn on the news. There was, however, an odd detail:  The one visible sign Ma left after his hour-long visit was a scribbled signature on a dormitory wall. We can only say Teacher Ma does not have very good handwriting, comments vice-principal Wu Bin. In fact, friends say Ma is quite a talented calligrapher, so the scribble may have been a sign that he was in a hurry.  2. Three weeks later, there was this headline (from a rather fatuous Bloomberg report): Jack Ma Spotted Playing Golf, Easing China Detention Fears.  For months, speculation over Jack Mas whereabouts has run rampant. Maybe the embattled billionaire had fled to Singapore, some posited. Or he had been placed under house arrest. Or worse yet, he was locked up in a high-security jail. As it turns out, Chinas most talked-about tycoon has been working on his golf game. The founder of The Ant Group and Alibaba teed off in recent weeks at the Sun Valley Golf Resort, a secluded 27-hole course on the Chinese island of Hainan  The Bloomberg reporter actually had no direct contact with Ma, did not see him herself, but relied on information obtained from people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information.  Nor would any of the relevant organizations confirm it. Representatives for Alibaba, Ant and the Sun Valley Golf Resort declined to comment.  In short, there was zero corroboration. The article does assure us that the course offers expansive greens and stunning views.      3. The Online Chat  The same Bloomberg report cited an exchange of text-messages between Ma and the head of Softbank. Masayoshi Son, a longtime friend of Mas who was among the earliest investors in Alibaba, said during SoftBanks quarterly earnings presentation on Monday that he has remained in touch with Ma. While he didnt talk about the Chinese billionaires whereabouts, Son said Ma likes to draw and has been sharing his sketches via chat.  Jack Ma loves painting and has sent me lots of pictures, said Masayoshi Son.  Softbank president Masayoshi Son (L) introduces Alibaba Group chairman Jack Ma during the Softbank ... [+] World 2014 annual forum in Tokyo on July 15, 2014. Alibaba, whose flagship site Taobao holds more than 90 percent of China's online consumer-to-consumer market, is preparing for a multi-billion-dollar stock offer on the New York Stock Exchange that could rival Facebook's flotation. AFP PHOTO / Yoshikazu TSUNO (Photo credit should read YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  In this case, we have a named source. But it is not clear whether Son actually spoke to Ma, or only connected by text messages. No date for this exchange was given, nor any other details. The account sheds no light on any of the questions of real interest about Mr. Mas situation. Evidently the painting is now part of the narrative. Hes lying low right now, Joe Tsai, the companys executive vice-chairman and Mas co-founder, was quoted as saying by CNBC. Hes actually doing very, very well. Hes taken up painting as a hobby, its actually pretty good.      4. The Jet Logs  In March, the The Financial Times published an interesting piece of forensic journalism. They had obtained access to the records for Jack Mas private jet. The flight logs, compiled with data from Radarbox, a flight-tracking company, dispel rumors that he has fled China to Singapore or been put under house arrest. Instead, they suggest that Ma continues to have access to his Gulfstream jet, which has a range that could easily carry him as far as New York or London.  Prior to his October speech, the logs show that he criss-crossed China hyperactively. There were plenty of sightings of Ma himself embarking and disembarking. But since his disappearance, the logs suggest that he has mainly shuttled to and from Beijing. The records show intense activity around Mas controversial October speech in Shanghai, in which he criticized state-owned banks and regulators. The day after he made the comments, his jet flew to Beijing for a four-day stay. A few days later, at 9pm on November 1, Ma flew again to Beijing  Mas jet sat parked in Beijing for two weeks.  Of course, the movements of an aircraft do not actually confirm the movements of its owner. No one is said to have actually seen him during any of these trips. There are no photos. The FT could not obtain additional information:  Alibaba referred questions to Mas charitable foundation, which did not respond to a request for comment. Ant Group did not respond to a request for comment.  5. The Putin Video  In April, the news broke that Ma had taken part in a video call with Vladimir Putin (of all people) at a meeting of the Russian Geographical Society. SOCHI, RUSSIA - OCTOBER,19 (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Chinese ... [+] e-commerce giant Alibaba Group's Chairman Jack Ma (R) during a meeting with Valdai Discussion Club members in Sochi, Russia. October, 19, 2017. Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images) Getty Images      This strange episode was reported by the New York Times and others. The video of the event shows Putin dominant in the center of a giant TV screen, Big Brother style, talking to a room full of scientist/bureaucrat/NGO-looking types. Putins image is surrounded on the screen by eight small participant tiles to provide a sense of a supporting cast, a board perhaps (although Putin is alone, physically, somewhere, and the others are all presumably at separate remote locations). One of the tiles is occupied by Jack Ma. The video runs for 90 minutes. Various international experts expound in various languages upon various geographical topics. Putin amiably orchestrates the proceedings from his isolated command center, sitting at a huge circular desk which is reminiscent of the bridge of the Enterprise in Star Trek. For 90 minutes, then, Ma sits stock still there in his personal video tile. He does not speak, does not smile, is not called upon, and no one refers to him. There is no indication of where he may be, or why he is there. He spends most of the time resting his head on one hand, looking deeply bored (as the Times put it). 6. The Alibaba Visit  Then in May, it was reported that Jack Ma had actually visited Alibaba headquarters for an employee social event. On Monday, Ma was seen in an open-air campus shuttle bus with a number of Alibaba executives, according to a photograph taken by an employee at the event, viewed by Reuters. Wearing a blue T-shirt, white trousers and a pair of Chinese-style cloth shoes, Ma was smiling. Its so exciting to see Jack, said the employee, declining to be named. Lets summarize the hard information here. There isnt much. the Chinese authorities published a brief video in which Ma is shown, uncharacteristically flat and subdued, and says nothing of substance; there is no audience shown in the video, and no indication of time or place  someone told a Bloomberg reporter that Ma had played golf in Hainan, but was unwilling to be identified as a source; there was no direct sighting by the reporter and no photo  Masayoshi Son had a text exchange with Ma (or someone using his phone). Jack has taken up painting, it seems  Mas jet was flown a few times to and from Beijing. Ma is said to have visited Alibaba, and said to have been photographed once  but the photo is not available. Ma endured an online meeting of the Russian Geographical Society      A Parade of Irrelevancies  The gaps here are glaring:  There is no named source for any of the information in these reports (except for Masayoshi Sons and Joe Tsais attestation to Jacks new interest in art). No organization associated with Ma will confirm any of the above events; all have declined to comment. There is no direct evidence that Ma was on his airplane, or under what conditions he may have been on the airplane, during the flights logged and reported by the Financial Times. There is no substantive information about anything the world would like to know, anything related to his businesses. Instead we get pedagogical advice; golf; Russian geography; artwork  There are no photographs of Ma anywhere in public in the last nine months. The last point is striking. There are one billion smartphones in China today. Everyone knows what Jack Ma looks like. The Incuriosity of the Press  I spoke recently with David Lesperance, an immigration lawyer and financial advisor who has 20 years of experience helping people like Jack Ma in various countries to create contingency plans  for use in case of adverse government actions in their home countries. Davids comment on the Ma situation (in which he has no personal involvement):  I am puzzled. I dont know why the press is not more curious about these very curious little stray sightings and a short video clip and nobody speaking for attribution.  Western news outlets have not given much attention to the story and they have been surprisingly uncritical regarding what they have reported. Bloomberg was content to cite an unnamed source for the supposed sighting of Ma at a golf outing, for example, with no corroboration whatsoever. It doesnt quite meet the Ockhams razor test. He may very well have had a call with the head of Softbank, or exchanged artwork, but that doesnt mean that it was wasnt all done pre-arranged and under duress. And it would have been so easy, in the [hostage] video, for example, to have a simple kind of proof of life, the current newspaper or some identifying object.      Fearing the Worst  We know what has happened to Mas business empire (see my previous column for a summary). Alibaba Market Capitalization & Jack Ma "Sightings" Chart by author  It is being rectified (as Beijing puts it): dismantled, reassembled, and parceled out to government-run competitors. There is value destruction on a huge scale. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been subtracted from the public market value of Alibaba alone. What we dont know is just what has happened to the man himself. None of the sightings described above shed any real light on his fate, beyond establishing the fact that he is probably still alive. That had worried a lot of people. The $40 Bn relief rally after the proof of life video, or the headline announcing that the (unverified) golf outing constituted an Easing of Detention Fears reflected dark speculations about what might have befallen him. Precedents & Hypotheticals  Those fears are not unfounded. In recent years, the richest men in China have been beset by a plague of disappearances, kidnappings, prosecutions, imprisonments, and in a few cases, execution. (I have detailed prominent examples in a previous column.) Some of this is related to so-called anti-corruption campaigns by the government, which may be justifiable to some degree. Yet recently, Beijings pressure has shifted towards a general rectification of the technology sector. Just in the last few months, following Jacks disappearance, the founders of Chinas tech giants ByteDance, Pinduoduo, and Meituan have stepped down  prematurely in the view of many (a topic for a future column). Imagine a hypothetical parallel. We know that Amazon, for example, is under pressure from the US government for potential antitrust violations. Suppose that in the course of this process, Jeff Bezos were summoned to Washington, and suddenly disappeared  not to be seen in public for nine months, his whereabouts unknown. We can imagine that there would be a media uproar. The Ma story is (hopefully) not over. We will see what happens once the rectification process is complete.