When and how should Wales lift all Covid restrictions?
Sign up to FREE email alerts from Wales Online - The Coronavirus Briefing - your latest Welsh Covid-19 news Invalid Email Something went wrong, please try again later. Subscribe Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice  Last week First Minister Mark Drakeford categorically ruled out lifting all Covid restrictions on June 21. The date had long been touted by the UK Government as the point when all Covid restrictions would be lifted in England. This was then thrown into doubt by the increase in the Delta variant and Prime Minister Boris Johnson was expected to announce a four-week delay in easing restrictions at around 6pm today. On Monday, June 7, the First Minister pushed on with further lifting of restrictions in Wales with the capacity of outdoor events increasing. However, there is still no fixed date for when, all being well, every restriction will be lifted in Wales. When would be the earliest you imagine this could be possible?  In their response they would not give a date or a likelihood of it happening. A spokesman said that they, hope to be able to continue to lift restrictions but that this depends on the latest public health situation and, particularly, the impact of the Delta variant, which is likely to become the dominant strain in Wales. Reading between the lines of the response, they made it clear that some form or restrictions would be in place throughout the entire summer. Coronavirus will remain a part of our lives well into the summer and beyond, the spokesman said, adding: This means we will all have to keep taking some measures to protect ourselves and our families and to keep Wales safe. We will need to carry on washing our hands, wear a face covering in indoor public spaces, keep our distance from others, work from home whenever possible and keep indoor places well ventilated. Social distancing remains one of our strongest defences against the virus and it is likely it will remain part of our defence here in Wales for some time yet.  Given that, like many viruses, Covid is more prevalent in winter it seems unlikely that restrictions would be lifted at the end of the summer just as we head into the cold weather. Subscribe to the Wales Matters newsletter Wales Matters delivers the best of WalesOnline's coverage of politics, health, education, current affairs and local democracy straight to your inbox. Now more than ever this sort of journalism matters and we want you to be able to access it all in one place with one click. It's completely free and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe, click here, enter your email address and follow the simple instructions. Though the Welsh Government have not been specific about all the restrictions that are likely to remain in place there are a few reasonable assumptions we can make. The first will be overseas travel. Although it has been legal to travel overseas since mid May, in reality, because of the strict rules on isolating ( which you can see here) overseas travel is severely restricted. This is unlikely to change for quite some time because of fears over variants. The Welsh Government spokesperson told WalesOnline: We also monitor variants closely, especially those like beta (which originated in South Africa) which have more vaccine-escape properties and could become more prevalent once a greater proportion of the population has been vaccinated. Another persistent restriction is likely to be mask wearing in shops. Mr Drakeford has indicated that he is inclined to keep mask wearing until the pandemic is over as it has now become habitual. The restriction that is most likely to remain in place long term and have the biggest impact on our lives is social distancing. Though simple in principle, in practice it severely limits the ability of many businesses and events to function as normal. This reduces capacity as well as making some unviable. As much of the modelling for future outbreaks assumes a base level distancing it seems unlikely that this will be lifted in the near future. This is an interesting question. We put this very question to the Welsh Government. They simply said that not everyone can and will be vaccinated. A spokesman said: Vaccines are one of the best tools in our defence. They are highly effective, but not 100% effective. Subject to vaccine supply, we are confident the delivery of second doses will continue to be as swift and successful as first doses. We are speeding up the delivery of second doses and hope to have offered everyone a second dose by the end of September. Take-up has been incredibly high across all the priority groups and age groups but not everyone can be vaccinated and not everyone will be vaccinated. We also need to carefully monitor emerging variants because some have the potential to spread faster, make people more ill and avoid the protection given by our vaccines. We are carefully assessing the impact of the Delta variant as it is set to become the dominant strain in Wales, as it is in England and Scotland.  This response doesnt really get to the heart of the question we asked. But reading between the lines it appears clear that even after vaccination, the normal of early 2020 has gone. Professor of molecular medicine at the University of Kent , Martin Michaelis, told WalesOnline: We will definitely re-open at some point in some form. However, we will unfortunately also have to accept that the pandemic is not over and will not be over at any time soon. Although our vaccine roll-out is working very well, this is not the case globally. Large parts of the world will not be vaccinated before 2023 or even 2024. At the same time, Covid-19 is spreading and new variants are emerging against which current vaccines may provide limited protection. Hence, new vaccination programmes with new vaccines may be necessary at some point. In England, the delta variant has resulted in a substantial increase in cases in recent weeks. This has happened, although the variant has been known and although substantial restrictions have still been in place. This shows that we are still not able in the UK to keep a new variant under control, even if its arrival is expected. Notably, variants much worse than the delta variant may emerge in the future. If we want to live with Covid-19 and all its variants that are still to emerge without a constant threat of additional lockdowns, we need to get the Covid-19 numbers down to very low levels and learn to keep them there. This is the only reliable way to avoid further lockdowns. The Welsh Government certainly dont think so. First Minister Mark Drakeford has consistently said over the last six weeks that despite a third wave being very likely there will not be a need for lockdowns. The Welsh Government spokesman reiterated the fact that they didn't believe they would have to close gyms, schools or pubs. He said: The Chief Medical Officer has said that a third wave is highly likely to happen in Wales. The good news is that all the modelling suggests peak rate of the third wave will be much lower than it was in the first and second waves and, crucially, our NHS will not be overwhelmed. We are confident we would be able to manage a third wave without the need for firebreaks and lockdowns, but that depends on us continuing to suppress the virus as much as we can and maximising the protection that vaccination offers. In England, despite an expected delay to the full re-opening Boris Johnson has been clear there will still be a full lifting of restrictions this summer. Welsh Conservative shadow health minister Russell George MS told WalesOnline it was a shame the Welsh Government hadnt follow suit. He said: Earlier this year the Welsh Conservatives published our roadmap out of lockdown so that communities and businesses had hope and clarity on getting back to normality. It was a shame the Welsh Government refused to release their path to recovery and instead are releasing it piecemeal, rising to confusion. However, there is light at the end of tunnel with the UKs stunning vaccination success story protecting lives and enabling us to take steps along the safe path out of lockdown.  According to Professor Michaelis, he believes that giving people personal responsibility over their own decisions may help keep the virus under control and that numbers are more important than dates. He said: I personally would not link the levels of restrictions to time schedules but to the Covid-19 case numbers. If transmission levels are very low (about one case per 100,000 residents per week) formal restrictions could be lifted. If numbers start to rise again beyond this value, measures would gradually be re-introduced. This would have the advantage that it would give power and responsibility back to the people. If I know that my actions have consequences for my personal freedoms when they result in increased Covid-19 transmission, I will be very careful. However, if I am focused on what is allowed within the rules to make the most out of the situation without considering the impact of my actions on virus transmission, I may unintentionally work out strategies to spread the disease within the rules.