Are recent spin-rate concerns the reason why the Red Sox pitchers are struggling?
Weve suddenly reached the point where some segments of the Red Sox fan base and media contingent would like to talk about spin rate. That metric was generally derided by those same folks when Boston signed Garrett Richards to a one-year deal with a club option last offseason. The right-hander's elite curveball  according to the Track Man and Rapsodo data readily available on Baseball Savant, of course  made him a worthwhile lottery ticket for Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to purchase. Any sudden rise and fall in spin rates could now be viewed as evidence of certain pitchers cheating. Major League Baseball has announced its intention to crack down on the alleged use of foreign substances like Spider Tack, soft drink syrup, hairspray, pine tar and others to enhance grip on the ball. One of the benefits gained by pitchers who employ such substances is superior spin rates, leading to different, sharper, later action on all of their offerings. This current course from the commissioners office comes with offenses struggling like never before. The big leagues are on track to post a historic low in batting average, and pitching dominance  along with an altered, power-driven approach at the plate  seems to be the norm. Torontos offense certainly seemed to have a good time over the weekend at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays smashed 13 home runs in a pair of victories on Saturday and Sunday, including eight in an 18-4 annihilation. Boston hadnt allowed more than two home runs in a game this season until this 48-hour demolition. Considering none of us has been on the field to personally inspect baseballs for foreign substances, we can only use the data on hand to draw conclusions. It doesnt look good on the surface considering whats happened recently against Houston and Toronto. Red Sox pitching has posted an ugly 5.28 ERA in June, just a tick down from the franchise-worst 5.58 ERA it compiled in a dreadful 2020 season. But a deeper look reveals Bostons regression to the mean started before this month. Its been particularly harsh in recent days, but the Red Sox team ERA in May (4.46) was considerably higher than in April (3.59). Stronger opponents, warmer weather, a stretch of 17 games in as many days  that combination is a difficult one for any pitching staff. Eduardo Rodriguez (6.03 to 4.03) and Garrett Richards (4.09 to 3.62) both have a higher current ERA than their respective career totals. If either pitcher was loading the ball at some point in 2021, he wasnt particularly adept at doing so. Nathan Eovaldi (4.11 to 4.27) and Martin Perez (4.52 to 4.71) are only a tick below the respective career ERA they carried into the season  neither has suddenly morphed into a Cy Young Award contender. Nick Pivetta is the only Boston starter to enjoy a significant improvement this season  his current 4.28 ERA is down significantly from his 5.40 career mark. But a spot check of Pivettas spin rate on his four-seam fastball shows consistent performance over a two-year period. His first start of this season (2,331 rpm) and the most recent start of this season (2,328 rpm) are in line with his final start of 2020 (2,299 rpm) with respect to spin rate. Maybe its this simple  the Red Sox were seen as having a patchwork rotation entering the season and overperformed early. Boston fattened up against the likes of the Orioles, Twins and staggering Yankees, pushing to a season-high 14 games over .500 after a 5-3 triumph over the Marlins on June 7. The last week saw the Astros and Blue Jays do a number on the Red Sox at the worst possible time to plead their collective innocence. If were going to arrive at conclusions with any hard basis for reaching them, thats also a perfectly worthwhile narrative to push.