What can the G-7 learn from Chinas transition to climate-smart growth?
As G-7 leaders gathered for their summit in the UK, the elephant was not in the room: China and its transition to climate-smart growth. Above the last decade, Chinas CO2 emissions rose 25% to 14.1 billion tonnes and, per capita, rose to 10.1 billion tonnes per year, just below the OECD average. While Chinas emissions are very high, the country has also made notable progress in industrial restructuring, energy efficiency, renewables in its energy mix, entirely new industries and pilot projects for a carbon market. President Xi Jinping said China will peak in carbon emissions before its 2030 target and aim for net zero emissions by 2060. More importantly, he also mentionned that it is for Chinas need to ensure sustainable development. Since 2005, manufacturing and heavy industries have reduced their share of GDP from 47% in 2005 to 41% in 2015, while services have fallen from 41% to 50%. This industrial transformation has led to improvements in energy efficiency. The consumption of coal has decreased to produce thermal energy, cement and steel (Figure 1). Figure 1. Energy Efficiency Improvements in Coal, Cement and Steel Power Plants Source: TThe Third National Communication of the Peoples Republic of China on Climate Change (2019). Energy consumption per unit of transport load also decreased from 2005 to 2015. For example, it fell 28% in railways as China built more energy efficient high-speed railways, 20% in waterways, 16% in motorways, 14% for road transport and 14% for aviation. Today, China is the world leader in electric vehicles. China is already ahead of most of the G-7 countries in transport energy efficiency. Chinas energy consumption mix has also changed (Figure 2). Coal and petroleum are still important, but the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption has increased over the past decade. Figure 2. Growth of renewable energies in the Chinese energy mix China has introduced a series of market and non-market policy instruments, the gradual elimination of inefficient and energy-intensive industries, energy targets in renewable energies and electric vehicles, progressive pricing of electricity, the abolition of the consumption tax on low-emission vehicles and the introduction of preferential taxes on clean production and the circular economy green bonds. China has also imposed a reduction in energy consumption targets in state-owned heavy industries, buildings, transportation, agriculture, commercial enterprises and households, and public institutions. Today, 100 percent of new buildings and cities in China are covered by energy saving standards. China has also invested heavily in advanced semiconductors, robots, additive manufacturing, intelligent systems, next-generation aviation equipment, integrated service systems for space technologies, intelligent transport, precision medicine, efficient energy storage and distributed energy system, smart materials, circular economy, virtual reality, interactive cinema and television. China also has plans to develop aerospace and marine technology, the information network, life sciences and nuclear technology. In 2019, these new technologies represented about 19 percent of Chinas GDP. In 2011, China launched seven pilot projects on carbon emissions trading. By the end of 2015, the pilots had successfully covered 20 industries, at least 2,600 key emission rejection units and an annual emission allowance of approximately 1,240 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. In 2017, China launched a national pilot project on CO2 emissions trading, starting with the power generation sector. If successful, this will be an important step in laying the groundwork for emissions trading in China. An important advantage of the carbon tax is the additional income generated. At a base price of $ 40 per metric ton of CO2 (per ton of CO2 emitted), at full capacity, China could generate $ 285 billion in additional revenue from national carbon taxes, or about $ 8 billion. 5% of its total revenues in 2018. This conservative amount could rise to $ 570 billion by 2050 when carbon prices rise to $ 80 per tonne. This additional source of revenue is particularly crucial for heavily indebted Chinese local governments, which have very limited fiscal leeway. National carbon taxes are easier and less controversial to impose than property taxes. While Chinas CO2 emissions have seen dramatic increases in recent years, the country has also made significant progress in peaking carbon by 2030 and hopefully meeting its net zero emissions commitment as well. before 2060. 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