Will the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey troika fill the void in Afghanistan after the US leaves?
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has given regional powers, including Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, the opportunity to exploit the political vacuum in the war-torn country. According to a New York Times report, approximately 3,500 troops remain in the country as the 9/11 deadline approaches, the date that marks the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. At the pace of the withdrawal, American troops and their allies could leave by the end of July. Several security experts and US officials have stressed the need to protect Afghanistan against a spiral of violence and to become a breeding ground for terrorist groups under Taliban control. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani last week met with US President Joe Biden in Washington to restore intra-Afghan dialogue in the hopes of ending Taliban violence and reaching a peace deal. As Biden assured Ghani and his compatriots that the United States will stay with them amid deteriorating conditions, the political vacuum after the American withdrawal is inevitable. Pakistan-Turkey-Iran Troika  The three key players in Afghanistans neighborhood who have the upper hand in influencing political and security imperatives in a post-withdrawal state are Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. The three countries enjoy warm ties and see Afghanistan as a gateway to resource-rich Central Asia. Pakistan sees Afghanistan not only as a strategic partner, but also as a ground to reverse Indias gains in the neighborhood. On the other hand, Pakistan is accused of harboring Taliban insurgents after the United States overthrew the Taliban-led government in 2001 in hiding places near tribal borders. The EurAsian Times earlier reportedhow Pakistan is wary of a powerful Taliban-led government that is likely to tackle Pakistans instability and challenge its national security. Analysts also suggest that Pakistans outright rejection of US military bases in the country is likely due to pressure from China and Iran. Iran and Turkey aim for a share of power  Meanwhile, Irans interests mainly stem from replacing its great American rival to gain a foothold in the region. In addition to the cultural reasons for protecting a Hazara Shiite minority in Afghanistan, Iran hopes to establish security ties with the Afghan government, whether Taiwanese or not, to achieve political goals. In the event of a torn Taliban state, Iran will face the ripple effects of looming threats to national security and an influx of Afghan refugees. [Vaccum] is a recipe for a new war in Afghanistan and we in the region cannot tolerate, with 3 million Afghan refugees in Iran, we cannot bear more of the burden, said Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a discussion with Indian and Afghan officials. Turkey led by nationalist Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to expand its footprint and play a bigger role in the region. On June 20, Turkey organized atrilateral dialoguewith Iran and Afghanistan to reiterate an inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled political process. Turkey, also a NATO ally, has deepened its diplomatic and security interests by sending troops and training Afghan soldiers as part of coalition forces. The country is a co-founder of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process, a regional organization focused on Afghanistan launched in 2011. After the stalemate in the Doha talks, Turkey proposed in April a mediation and a peace dialogue with the Taliban. During the recent Biden-Erdogan meeting, Istanbul offered to ensure the security of Kabul airport after the withdrawal, the main entry and exit point for senior officials, diplomatic staff and aid workers, in exchange of continued US financial aid. We intend to stay in Afghanistan depending on the conditions. Political, financial and logistical support. If these are respected, we can stay at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said, as reported by the Istanbul-based Daily Sabah. The Taliban, however, see Turkeys involvement as a violation of the 2020 Doha deal, under which Turkish troops are expected to withdraw completely. The peace conference waspostponedafter the group refused to participate and also opposed Turkeys offer to keep Kabul airport, citing Kabul airport security as the responsibility of the Afghans. The Taliban are continuing their offensive and have seized more than 50 districts since May, including a strategic border post with neighboring Tajikistan. American intelligence recentlywarnedthe possibility that the capital Kabul will fall into the hands of the militants within six to twelve months after the exit of the security troops. The presence of foreign forces under any name or by any country in our homeland is unacceptable to the Afghan people and the Islamic Emirate (what the Taliban called the state during their reign in 1996-2001) the Taliban said, referring to reports about the possibility of stationing some troops for security and intelligence reasons. Other players in the region  Besides the Islamic nations, India, China and Russia also remain key players in the peace process as well as in the post-withdrawal scenario. India has expressed concern over the rise in violence since Bidens announcement of the withdrawal deadline. #Taliban fighters reached the gate of Mazar-e-Sharif, the largest city in northern #Afghanistan, this afternoon, posing for the photo. The government says its forces pushed back the insurgents, but the fact that they can get to the door of a big city so easily speaks volumes. pic.twitter.com/Vh2xistBZc  Sharif Hassan (@ MSharif1990) June 21, 2021  During the UN Security Council debate, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar called for zero tolerance for terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and for the preservation of constitutional democratic practices in a political settlement Afghan peace. Lasting peace in Afghanistan requires a true double peace, namely peace in Afghanistan and peace around Afghanistan. This requires harmonizing the interests of all, both within and around this country, he said. Chinas interests stem from the economy and security. China aims to expand its ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan, as it provides a strategic entry point to Central Asia. The containment of extremism and activism among Uyghur Muslims in Chinas Xinjiang Province is another reason China is considering an important role in post-withdrawal Afghanistan. Russia enjoys considerable influence and control over the former Soviet states in Central Asia. It also has a history of the Cold War with Afghanistan, when the USSR invaded the country in 1979, which led to the creation of several insurgent groups which then grew into powerful terrorist organizations. All external actors are hoping for a peace deal and a power accord between the Taliban and the Afghan government, as the emergence of ISIS in the region is a common threat.