Is it too early for coronavirus restrictions to ease in Melbourne?
Victoria has eased restrictions again today and emerges from its fourth coronavirus lockdown but a leading epidemiologist is questioning whether authorities have moved too soon. Cases and exposure sites are still being reported in Melbourne, including some with the more infectious Delta strain of the virus. And there are also claims from the Victorian government that the federal government is cutting the state's supply of the Pfizer vaccine by 20,000 doses per week. First, let's look at how the current lockdown compares with past ones. Lockdown 1  Victoria's first lockdown in March last year, which included stage 3 restrictions, ended after two months when the state still had 206 total cases and had recorded seven new cases. Acting Premier James Merlino says restrictions are likely to be eased again next week. ( ABC News: Darryl Torpy  Lockdown 2  Melbourne and regional Victoria were under strict stage 3 and 4 restrictions for about 110 days between June and October last year. Restrictions were first eased when the state recorded zero new coronavirus cases for the first time since June. The ring of steel around Melbourne, protecting regional Victoria, was only allowed to be lifted after the state recorded nine consecutive "double doughnut" days of no new infections or coronavirus deaths. At that time, there were four confirmed active cases across the entire state. Victorians must continue to wear masks indoors under current restrictions. ( ABC News: Ron Ekkel  Lockdown 3  A five-day snap lockdown was announced in February and was eased when 40,000 tests all came back negative. The eased restrictions allowed Victorians to have five visitors in the home and up to 20 people from any number of households were allowed to gather in public. Lockdown 4  The latest lockdown for Melbourne and regional Victoria is being eased after three weeks in very similar ways to the third lockdown. The Acting Premier James Merlino announced the easing of restrictions after five new locally acquired cases had been reported linked to known outbreaks, and the state had 38 active, locally acquired cases total. 'This virus is going to outplay us'  But each outbreak is different and it's not a simple comparison. The communities involved, number of exposure sites, the season and the type of strain health authorities are dealing with all play a part in how each outbreak is tackled. This time there are differences with contact tracing, the addition of the vaccine and stronger uptake of QR codes so contact tracers can quickly trace the movements of any new positive case. Mr Merlino said the fact 40,000 people were tested on Thursday with just one positive case gave authorities "cautious confidence" to move into a slight easing of restrictions today. He added the state was on track to have restrictions further eased in a week. Chief Health Officer Jeroen Weimar said that while the easing of restrictions on Friday was a "huge step forward", testing and the use of QR codes needed to become "part of our daily habits". He also said the state was making "really good progress" in clearing the primary close contacts linked to the outbreak, including:  Over 90 per cent of the primary close contacts for West Melbourne were cleared  Over 90 per cent of the primary close contacts for West Melbourne were cleared All primary close contacts in the City of Whittlesea and Port Melbourne had been cleared  All primary close contacts in the City of Whittlesea and Port Melbourne had been cleared Arcare Maidstone aged care facility's primary close contacts were all going through their day 13 testing today and it's hoped the facility will be returned to normal operations on Monday  Mr Weimar added there had been a "phenomenal response" from residents in the Southbank apartment complex and those who had visited exposure sites. But Mary-Louise McLaws, professor of epidemiology at the University of New South Wales and an adviser to the World Health Organization, said she was concerned health authorities had not grasped how infectious the Delta strain of the virus was and said the state's latest outbreak needed to be handled differently than previous ones. She was concerned Victoria was "nowhere near" bringing its latest outbreak under control and that allowing groups of up to 20 people in Melbourne to gather together was "too high". "The reason why restrictions help is to help catch up with vaccinations before the Delta strain catches up with people who haven't been vaccinated," she said. "We keep doing business as usual. This virus is going to outplay us." Professor McLaws said "sticking to the ways we did this" last year would not work and younger cohorts of Victorians needed to be vaccinated to create a "ring of defence" around the elderly. She added that although one new recorded case as of Friday was good news, questions needed to be asked about how the Southbank cluster was being handled and whether people without the virus were at risk of interacting with positive cases. Are positive cases being moved out of the complex?" she said. "We have often shown a lack of duty care in our quarantine program. Every single case since lockdown in March last year has been caused by a quarantine failure." Adrian Esterman, an epidemiologist at the University of South Australia, disagreed, and said Victoria was "in a fairly good place at the moment". "I know Delta is far more transmissible but contact tracers seem to have it under control," he said. Professor Esterman said last year, Victoria's contact tracing team "started off not being crash hot" but throughout 2020 had ramped up their training. "They have the experience, they have the software, and have done a good job to keep this one under control. "If we saw 20 cases tomorrow I'd be worried and we don't want to see a lot more exposure sites listed. But I'm reliably optimistic this thing is coming to an end."