Can Wander Franco succeed where other MLB rookies have failed?
Thanks to one extremely high-profile arrival and one rather messy departure, this week could be one of the most significant of the 2021 baseball season. Lets start with the Tampa Bay Rays promotion of the consensus No. 1 prospect in the minor leagues, shortstop Wander Franco. Its a move almost everyone knew would happen at some point this season, especially after the team traded starting shortstop Willy Adames to Milwaukee. The only question was when. With the Super Two threshold almost certainly past (and the Rays on the wrong end of a six-game losing streak with the first-place Boston Red Sox coming to town), Francos arrival comes at the perfect time. In 39 games at Class AAA Durham (North Carolina), Franco hit .315/.367/.586 with seven home runs, 35 RBI, 30 runs and five stolen bases. He has excelled throughout the minor leagues, despite being one of the youngest players at every level. And thats the case once again as Franco becomes the first player born in 2001 to reach the majors. Playing time shouldnt be an issue. Even though fellow rookie Taylor Walls has been excellent defensively since taking over for Adames, he doesnt have anywhere near Francos offensive upside. Franco has the versatility to also play second or third base if needed. Franco has shown excellent plate discipline in the minors, with more walks (95) than strikeouts (75). All the evidence suggests he should be an immediate contributor for the Rays and an automatic starter in all fantasy formats. Theres just one small problem with that line of thinking. The game is just not that simple, especially in the case of someone so young playing in the major leagues for the first time. Just 10 years ago an all-time talent by the name of Mike Trout made his MLB debut at age 19 and struggled to a .220/.281/.390 slash line over 40 games. And it may be just a coincidence, but other players whove made their major league debuts this season have been almost universally disappointing. Perhaps the lack of a minor league season in 2020 slowed their development, but its still curious how players who dominated in the minors have struggled so badly upon reaching the bigs. -- Seattle Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic, 21, went 10-for-27 with two home runs, six RBI, five runs and two stolen bases in games at Class AAA Tacoma (Washington) before he was promoted but hit a woeful .096/.185/.193 slash line over 92 plate appearances in Seattle, going hitless in his last 37 at-bats before he was sent back to Class AAA. -- Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah, 23, had a 0.50 ERA in three starts at Class AAA Buffalo (New York) before he was promoted. Despite a strong first outing, he gave up four homers on June 19 at Baltimore and has a 4.18 ERA over five starts with the Jays. -- Kansas City Royals righty Jackson Kowar, 24, had a 0.85 ERA in six minor league starts at Class AAA Omaha (Nebraska). But he has been rocked for 10 earned runs in five innings and is now pitching out of the bullpen. There are no guarantees in this game, even when youve been the No. 1 prospect in the minors for the past three seasons. Then again, if anyones going to beak the streak of this years disappointing debuts, Franco stands a pretty good chance of being the one. Sticky business  The other reason this week is so significant is that it marks the beginning of MLBs official crackdown on pitchers applying illegal substances to the baseball. From this point forward, anyone caught using anything besides rosin from the rosin bag will be hit with a 10-game suspension. Understandably, many pitchers arent happy. The issue isnt really about being able to grip the baseball safely and securely. Even the hitters are in favor of that. Its just that some pitchers have taken grip enhancement to an extreme and turned it into something that can give them a measurable advantage. Weve already seen dramatic reductions in the spin rates from several pitchers leading up to the start on June 21 of mandatory inspections for everyone who takes the mound. Some pitchers will still be just as effective with or without any additional sticky stuff. But others will need to make significant adjustments. Take, for example, Rays ace Tyler Glasnow. He was off to an incredible start  with a 5-2 record, 2.66 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 123 strikeouts (second most in the majors behind Shane Bieber). But in ditching the rosin-and-sunscreen mixture he used to help him grip the ball, Glasnow altered his pitching mechanics. After leaving his June 14 start against the White Sox early, he was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and strained flexor tendon that could potentially end his season. Im telling you I truly believe thats why I got hurt, he said. Im frustrated that they dont understand how hard it is to pitch, but to tell us to do something completely different in the middle of the season is insane. Its ridiculous.  From a statistical standpoint, the new policy adds yet another variable to whats already been a difficult season to analyze. Changes to the baseball before the season made it slightly lighter and reduced fly ball distance. The addition of humidors to four new parks (now up to nine total) also has impacted how the ball flies. Now, the elimination of substances used by a majority  maybe even as high as 80%  of pitchers will also make a difference. But we have to be careful not to jump to conclusions with the data thats to come. In the immediate future, offensive numbers are going to rise because thats what always happens in the summer months. Pitchers are going to have poor outings that may not have anything to do with spin rates or sticky substances. And unless we see a rash of injuries like Glasnows to pitchers elbows or forearms, its going to be almost impossible to point to a specific reason for an individual outcome. Its almost as if we can consider mid-June  when pitchers first started realizing MLB was getting serious about the sticky stuff  as the start of a completely new season. Its far from an optimal situation. And another important point Glasnow made applies to the major leagues as well as fantasy leagues when it comes to any kind of rule changes: Do it in the offseason. Give us a chance to adjust to it.  In the meantime, fantasy managers whose strong starts have been fueled by excellent pitching have plenty of reasons to be concerned. Maybe its just a coincidence, but Shane Biebers shoulder strain, Max Scherzers tweaked groin and Jacob deGroms shoulder soreness are just some of the more recent reminders that you can never have enough pitching. Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner