What's Up Doc? Why all the worry about the COVID Delta variant?
A: The Delta COVID variant, now reported in every state and the District of Columbia, is more than 50% more infectious than even the prior Alpha variant - with a hospitalization rate over 85 percent higher - which itself was about 50% more infectious than the original COVID strain. Although overall the Delta variant is only driving a seven-day increase in COVID nationwide of about 10% to 15%, the infection rate in the unvaccinated subpopulation is skyrocketing at over 10 times the rate for the vaccinated population, to essentially the same rate for the unvaccinated subpopulation now as there was in the overall country back in early May. So, the good news is that the vaccines appear to be beneficial against even the Delta variant (over 90 percent effective), at least so far. But for those people not vaccinated there is, of course, no such protection, so the more infectious Delta variant is spreading in this subpopulation like wildfire. Therefore, looking at the population in U.S. as a whole is no longer a realistic way to analyze the data, as the risks and rates of COVID infection, hospitalization and death are completely different in the subset of the population who are vaccinated than in those who are not vaccinated. The more reasonable way to evaluate the present situation with COVID in the U.S. is to look at it in the vaccinated and unvaccinated subpopulations separately. For example, cases are surging in Arkansas where the vaccination rate is only 35 percent (only the states of Alabama and Mississippi have lower vaccination rates), increasing over 50 percent as compared to the nation as a whole where cases are increasing by about 10 to15 percent. Over 90 percent of COVID cases in Arkansas are now in unvaccinated people, with over 99.5 percent of deaths and 98 percent of those hospitalized due to COVID also coming from this unvaccinated subpopulation. Therefore, the reductions in COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths for the population as a whole actually represent the improvements in these numbers for the subpopulation who are vaccinated. The unvaccinated subpopulation is in midst of yet another wave of surging infections, and this is being driven more and more by the Delta variant which is not only much more contagious but is likely also causing more severe disease. The take-home message is that COVID is still ravaging the subpopulation of people in the U.S. who are unvaccinated, too many of whom are looking at the overall numbers and developing a false and misguided sense of security. This is especially true in younger folks under age 29, where the vaccination rates are abysmally low. We are incredibly fortunate here in the U.S., along with a handful of certain other developed countries, where taken together over 70 percent of the 3 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide have been utilized. However, this is a worldwide epidemic, and new variants will continue to develop until the world as a whole is able to control the epidemic. So far we have been lucky, and the vaccines have continued to be effective even against the newer variants, but at some point this luck may run out. If this occurs there may be a need for booster shots for people who have been vaccinated. Those who have not been vaccinated yet need to look at the facts. Over 3 billion doses of COVID vaccine have been administered worldwide, so the very small risks of vaccination are well understood, and the safety of the vaccines firmly established. As newer variants of COVID, including the Delta variant, take hold and spread, the risk for the unvaccinated subpopulation becomes even more worrisome. Even if you had COVID before, that does NOT give the same immunity as having been vaccinated, and you may NOT be protected against these new variants! If you have not yet been vaccinated, I strongly urge you to go out and get vaccinated now. The COVID deaths still occurring in the U.S. are largely preventable, and it is awful to see people needlessly die because they have been duped by lies and misinformation. Jeff Hersh, Ph.D., M.D., can be reached at DrHersh@juno.com