Will Treasurys aid cuts compromise be enough to avert Commons defeat?
After spending months trying to dodge an embarrassing defeat in the Commons on cutting international aid, the government has sprung a last-minute vote and announced details of a compromise with 14 sceptical Tories. With Boris Johnson having a majority of 80 in parliament, the rebels ringleader, Andrew Mitchell, the former international development secretary, needs about 40 Conservatives to join him to scupper the governments plan. After personal lobbying, Johnson and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, have managed to sway a small but significant number of waverers who now say they will vote with the government. Despite attempts to force a vote on the issue in the past, there has been no formal declaration where MPs have been forced to show their hand, so the number of rebels will remain a mystery until the formal division, expected at about 4pm. Ministers knew they were in a bind given proponents of keeping international aid spending at 0.7% of GDP said the government would be breaking the law  and breaking a manifesto commitment  by cutting it to 0.5% indefinitely. Sunak argued publicly that the cut was only temporary, and was needed to help begin finding a way to pay for the huge financial costs of Covid, but he refused to put a date on restoring aid spending to its normal levels, saying only that it would return once the fiscal situation allows. In an attempt to win over Tories who think it was a shady move to try to get away from 0.7% more permanently, the Treasury has now set out the two conditions under which the spending will rise again. Sunak has passed the buck to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), set up by George Osborne in 2010 to provide independent economic analysis and advice to the government of the day. He said 0.7% would return when the OBRs fiscal forecast confirms that on a sustainable basis the UK is not borrowing for day-to-day spending and that underlying debt is falling. The chancellor suggested there could be further tax rises and spending cuts if MPs reject his plan later on Tuesday. Tory whips will be breathing a big sigh of relief that they have managed to get 14 backbenchers to vote for Sunaks motion tonight, including the former cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom. Some Conservative insiders said it was unlikely the government would have called the vote if it thought it was going to lose, though it is still a gamble. However, given that the exact number of prospective Tory rebels has never been known  estimates range up to about 50  the government still has reason to worry. Since the compromise and vote were announced with less than 24 hours notice, some Conservatives feel their colleagues will not be easily swung. They think that the two conditions for 0.7% to be reinstated are unlikely to be met in this parliament  ie within three years. The Tory peer Liz Sugg said that only once in the last 20 years had the two conditions been met, so it was unlikely 0.7% would return any time soon. All eyes will be on how the remaining rebels signal they will vote during the debate in the few hours before. Theresa May, the former prime minister, is one of those who has been highly critical of cutting aid spending, so if she stands firm then other Tories will feel emboldened to try to inflict a significant defeat on Johnson.