What are the odds of winning $1 million in Nevada vaccination raffle?
The odds are very reasonable for winning one of the raffles prizes, a UNLV mathematician said on the eve of the first drawing. That said, dont quit your day job beforehand. A cart promoting Vax Nevada Days drives through the two-day Damboree event on Saturday, July 3, 2021, on Nevada Way in downtown Boulder City. (Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal) @HeidiFang  The odds are more than 1 in a million that youll be the one to take home the $1 million grand prize the Nevada Vax Days raffle. Or, to be more precise, about 1 in 1.6 million, according to mathematician Ashok Singh, a professor at UNLVs International Gaming Institute. Singh agreed to calculate the odds of winning one of the prizes in the states raffle, which beginning Thursday will award cash, college tuition and other prizes to Nevada residents who have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Eligible Nevadans are automatically entered in the raffle. About 1 in 1.4 million, based on the more than 1.4 million residents ages 18 and older who have gotten a shot, the group eligible for cash prizes. The odds of winning one of the four $25,000 prizes are about 1 in 357,000. One in about 143,000. Tuition prizes for post-secondary education are available to vaccinated residents ages 12 to 17. That number as of Tuesday was 62,624, according to Shannon Litz, a representative of the Nevada Department of Health and Human Services. With fewer people in this age group vaccinated, the odds are better. The odds of winning the $50,000 tuition prize Thursday are about 1 in 64,000. Theyre roughly 1 in 21,000 for winning one of the three $20,000 tuition prizes, and 1 in 6,400 for one of the 10 5,000 prizes. As for winning one of 125 fishing licenses Thursday, for which all vaccinated Nevadans are eligible, the odds are about 1 in nearly 12,000. One in nearly 30,000. The odds are very reasonable, Singh said Wednesday of the raffle scheme, especially considering that nobody is spending any money to enter. There are other odds to consider in getting a shot, however. Nearly one in 10 people in Nevada have tested positive for COVID since the start of the pandemic. And about one in 544 people in the state have died of the disease. The prizes will be announced over eight consecutive Thursdays, ending with a flourish on Aug. 26 with the grand prize of $1 million. Calculating the odds of winning is more complicated than it might appear. In calculating the odds for the grand prize and other prizes down the pike, Singh had to estimate how many more people will get vaccinated between now and Aug. 26 by analyzing the states current COVID-19 inoculation trends. His calculations also show that odds for some prizes will improve as more are are offered. But for the grand prize, as more people get vaccinated, the odds will get worse. Exactly how much worse will depend on how many people are enticed by the prizes to get a shot, which is the aim of the raffle. Contact Mary Hynes at mhynes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0336. Follow @MaryHynes1 on Twitter. Review-Journal staff writer Michael Scott Davidson contributed to this report.