How Can Big History Help Us Think About The Future?
This glimpse of the future was crafted by Noriko Wynn  When thinking about how long humans, Homo sapiens, have existed, you can use this proxy: if you consider the universe's total age  from the big bang until today  is represented by the length of your forearm, human existence takes up just the tip of your fingernail. "So what?" you might ask. It might seem either overwhelming or irrelevant. But, if we want to think about the future, we have to understand the trajectories and patterns in our past. One rule of thumb when thinking about the future is: if we want to systematically consider what might happen going forward, we have to look at the patterns going at least twice as far back in time. This means if we want to design for 2070, and think about technologies, new industries, community needs or jobs that might emerge over 50 years; we have to consider the rates and processes of change going back 100 years to 1920. Humans have reached an age where the impact of our activities are changing the very planet on which we live, on a scale we find quite difficult to comprehend. A study in Nature found that in 2020, human-made materials weighed more than all life on Earth combined. While another in the Scientific American stated that human activities, the droughts, melting ice and rising seas linked to anthropogenic climate change, are changing the axis on which the earth rotates as it orbits the sun. Although rather short-lived organisms, humans are having an outsized influence on our planet and we need to start thinking and anticipating on a scale that takes such an impact into account. However, this will require a deliberate change in how we think about the future. In the same way that Big Data finds patterns in the trails of our digital footprints, history reveals patterns in the human existence. Finding common patterns from the first start of the universe until present day might provide us with the tools and processes to understand our future on a planetary scale. Speaking metaphorically, we have to take into account the whole arm, not merely the tip of the fingernail. We have to consider 'Big History'. Looking for universal patterns  'Big History' is a multidisciplinary study that seeks to put the human story into the context of a 13.8 billion-year story from the Big Bang to now. It identifies 9 different thresholds that describe inflection points and when new epochs of complexity, evolution and innovation emerged. It grapples with trends from across the whole of existence using many lenses, including astronomy, physics, chemistry, biology, anthropology, politics and economics to find the patterns that recur on our planet. These are not small questions, with simple answers. But in asking these questions and taking a multidisciplinary approach, we can find new perspectives and possibilities. It provides us with a different set of lenses to identify how the future could be different and, as a result, how we might need to respond. It helps us understand how the world is interconnected and what we might need to do differently to respond to challenges. One such pattern observed throughout time since the Big Bang is that of increasing complexity. Looking at this pattern provides us with a different perspective on our future. Another way in which this multidisciplinary approach can help, is in understanding what in the past can help us with designing for the future. Big History lets us move beyond a dichotomy of sciences versus the humanities and recognises how both are needed to understand our world and our communities. We set these disciplines up in opposition to each other, when in fact they might have more in common than we realise. A recent study by the University of South Australia found that the process of creativity in STEM is similar to the process in the arts. Lead author and professor, David Cropley said, "As it turns out, creativity is general in nature it is essentially a multifaceted competency that involves similar attitudes, disposition, skills, and knowledge, all transferable from one situation to another." Perhaps there are more similarities and universal patterns in life than we realise. Building for the future  Big History gives us insight into what we should build now, for a future that is not yet here. This is obviously of great interest to organisations and governments who constantly face challenges and opportunities over growing populations, their move to the cities, their increasing inequality and their increasing consumption. The engineers and designers engaged to build the new cities have to plan for housing, water, waste, energy, transportation and food. And they have to do this against a backdrop of what natural resources will either support or threaten the planned urbanised population in 30, 50- and 100-years' time. Juggling immediate human needs against the longer time frames of natural resources, gives us a chance to enhance humanity, but sustainably. Big History doesn't resolve all our problems, although it does provide a powerful framework for understanding them. It is characterised by several features: perhaps the most important is system thinking. Big History takes its subject  the Cosmos, Earth and Life  as a system in which humans operate, allowing short-term human decisions to be judged against long-term natural implications. It is not merely trying to understand humans, it's trying to understand life as a whole. And when we can understand and identify these frameworks and universal patterns, we can anticipate what comes next; not only what the next generation will need, but also the ones that will come after. Up until now, through the first, second and third industrial revolutions, it has been possible to separate humans and our activities from the natural world we inhabit. It was a successful strategy for the development of our modern civilisations, until it wasn't. As we move deeper into the 21st Century, we must address the challenges we created in those previous industrial revolutions, responding to how to decarbonise our economies, address the impacts of climate change and yet continue to allow people across the globe to improve their living conditions and prosperity. Big History attempts to bring new perspectives, different mindsets, and identify new approaches to think about the future over the long-term, while putting all of human history, universal history and the collective knowledge of humans to use. Click here to subscribe to Just Imagine. Aurecons award-winning blog, Just Imagine provides a glimpse into the future for curious readers, exploring ideas that are probable, possible and for the imagination. This post originally appeared on Aurecons Just Imagine blog. Get access to the latest blog posts as soon as they are published by subscribing to the blog. This article was first published Aurecons Just Imagine blog. Just Imagine provides a glimpse into the future for curious readers, exploring ideas that are probable, possible and for the imagination. Subscribe here to get access to the latest blog posts as soon as they are published.  Scoop Media