How could Gulf storm affect Alabama?
A tropical (or subtropical) depression is expected to form tonight or on Friday in the Gulf of Mexico, and its headed this way. Tropical storm warnings could be issued for part of the northern Gulf Coast as soon as today, the hurricane center said Thursday afternoon. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression tonight or early Friday. A tropical storm warning will likely be required for parts of the northern Gulf coast later this afternoon.https://t.co/m9946DoYYi pic.twitter.com/24P7kqYtbw  National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 17, 2021  The National Hurricane Center expects the system to come ashore on Friday or early Saturday, possibly in Louisiana. But that doesnt mean Alabama is in the clear, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters said early-season tropical systems typically are lopsided, with most of the worst weather often far removed from the eastern side of the center. That could put Alabama in line to get a lot of rain. However, forecasters also stressed that the system is disorganized and forecast changes will be possible. The weather services forecast for rain over the weekend shows parts of southwest Alabama potentially getting 6 to 8 inches of rain through Monday. Then theres the potential for deadly rip currents, storm surge, tornadoes, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Father inland there could be more flooding concerns as well as the risk for a few tornadoes. The hurricane center said a reconnaissance aircraft was taking a close look at the storm on Thursday afternoon and that forecasters will likely begin issuing advisories on it later today. It will possibly be designated a potential tropical cyclone, which is one step away from being considered a depression. A system needs a closed center of circulation and winds of at least 39 mph to be considered a tropical storm. If it gets a name it will be Claudette. The storm is forecast to bring heavy rain to the coast starting on Friday, and farther inland on Saturday and Sunday. Heres a look at what to expect by region:  SOUTH ALABAMA  Southwest Alabama is in line to get the most rain from the storm in the Gulf. Six inches or more will be possible in some areas. Southwest Alabama could be in line to get the bulk of the rain from the storm, and a flash flood watch has been issued for part of the region, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile:  MOB issues Flash Flood Watch valid at Jun 18, 12:00 PM CDT till Jun 20, 6:00 AM CDT https://t.co/9C3FGhAEZD pic.twitter.com/7ef4ldTPXy  IEMBot MOB (@iembot_mob) June 17, 2021  The weather service is forecasting 6 to 8 inches for areas including Mobile from Friday through Monday. The rain could begin by Friday afternoon. The Alabama counties in the watch are Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Crenshaw, Escambia, Covington, Mobile and Baldwin. Forecasters said its not certain where the storm will make landfall or where heaviest rain will fall until the system gets more organized. A high risk of rip currents will be in effect starting on Friday and lasting at least through Sunday. That means the water may be off limits. A high surf advisory is also in effect for Alabama coastal areas until 6 a.m. Monday. Localized beach erosion will also be possible. As the storm moves inland there will be the potential for quick-hitting tornadoes in rain bands. The Storm Prediction Center has southwest Alabama in a marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Saturday:  Tornadoes will be possible on Saturday in Alabama as rain bands move onshore. The areas in green have a Level 1 risk for severe weather (out of 5) for Saturday. The weather service said the threat for tornadoes will be refined as the system gets more organized. CENTRAL ALABAMA  The National Weather Service in Birmingham said the biggest concern with the Gulf storm will be the potential for heavy rain. Heavy rain & potential flooding concerns appear to be the greatest threat for Central AL at this time. We'll post some updated graphics later this afternoon. Be sure to check back for updates over the next 24-48 hours. #alwx https://t.co/StgVIj877q  NWS Birmingham (@NWSBirmingham) June 17, 2021  Those in central Alabama should expect periods of heavy rainfall through the weekend, forecasters said. Expect rain and storms to spread northward from the coast on Saturday, and the rain could be heavy at times. The weather service said the highest rain totals could end up being between Interstates 20 and 85, with 4 to 5 inches possible through Sunday night. Forecasters noted that the corridor of heaviest rain could change depending on the track and strength of the system. The rest of the region could get 3 to 4 inches as well. This potential rain will come on top of higher than average rain amounts this month so far, and the weather service said additional heavy rain could quickly cause flooding of streams or low-lying areas. Expect gusty winds at times, especially in the southwest part of the region. Winds could range from 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Central Alabama could end up in a more favorable area for tornadoes -- depending on the storms track -- according to the weather service. As of Thursday afternoon there was no widespread severe weather risk outlined for central Alabama from the Storm Prediction Center. NORTH ALABAMA  Dry and warm weather will continue through Friday with highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Then, rain and thunderstorm chances increase, especially Sunday into Monday. #HUNwx pic.twitter.com/XSF4yNEcWu  NWS Huntsville (@NWSHuntsville) June 17, 2021  Look for increasing rain chances on Saturday with periods of heavy rain and storms through Sunday. The system could end up tracking across the Tennessee Valley on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in Huntsville. North Alabama could get between a half-inch to 2.5 inches of rain through the weekend based on the current track of the system -- which could change, forecasters said. Forecasters think the winds will stay manageable and be confined to any stronger storms that develop. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than average because of the clouds and rain, but expect very muggy conditions lasting into Monday.