Is Duterte squandering The Hague victory to appease Beijing?
Experts say Chinas gains in South China Sea impossible to reverse while urging the Philippines to boost military capability and alliances. In the days leading up to the fifth anniversary on Monday of The Hagues 2016 ruling that rejected Chinas historical claim to most of the disputed South China Sea, the Philippines often abrasive Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr sounded celebratory, hailing the occasion as a milestone in the corpus of international law. The Philippines is proud to have contributed to the international rules-based order, he said of Manilas role in challenging Beijing before the Permanent Court of Arbitration. In a dig at China, Locsin said that the decision dashed among others a nine-dash line; and any expectation that possession is nine-tenths of the law.  Locsin then cited Philippine President Rodrigo Dutertes videotaped message at the UN General Assembly, in which the Filipino leader said the case was now beyond compromise and beyond the reach of passing governments to dilute, diminish or abandon. But since taking office in 2016, Duterte has usually been less assertive  failing to challenge Chinas moves to expand its maritime dominance in the region despite the landmark victory  and foreign policy experts said his defeatist rhetoric has compromised the countrys integrity and diminished its legal standing. Manila certainly missed a chance to echo a consistent unified narrative on its claims  which Beijing saw as an opportunity to flex its muscles and build the largest coast guard and maritime militia for its strategic advantage, said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of Manila-based think-tank International Development and Security Cooperation. Instead, Filipinos heard defeatist rhetoric from the commander-in-chief as he kept mum on continuous Chinese incursions into the Philippines exclusive economic zone (EEZ), he told Al Jazeera. Collin Koh, research fellow at Singapores Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, said the Duterte administration squandered the opportunity in emphasising the significance of the decision whether it ought to be doing it alone or in concert with like-minded external parties such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States. Victory Day  It was in July 2016, less than two weeks into the Duterte presidency when The Hague tribunal concluded, based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), that Chinas assertion of historic rights within its nine-dash line and maritime entitlements over most of the South China Sea had no legal basis. The ruling also affirmed the Philippines jurisdiction over its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which stretches 200 nautical miles (370km) from its coast. As such, Chinas fishing activities and construction of artificial islands within that area were deemed an infringement of Philippine sovereign rights. The Philippines refers to that particular area as the West Philippine Sea. Moreover, the court ruled that of all disputed South China Sea features  even those controlled by Beijing  none were considered habitable and able to sustain economic activity in its original form, and therefore were not entitled to an EEZ  thus clearly falling within Philippine EEZ. Protesters descend on the Chinese consulate in Manila in 2019 to oppose the Asian superpowers growing sway in the Philippines, and as tensions rise over Beijings presence in the disputed South China sea [File: Ted Aljibe/AFP] To commemorate the ruling this year, Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros has proposed that the country declare July 12 as the National West Philippine Sea Victory Day. In a statement sent to Al Jazeera, she said Dutertes predecessor, Benigno Aquino III  who died last month  should also be commended for his decision to take on China and secure a landmark legal victory. Even when the Philippines was going against the Goliath that is China, he pursued the case merely on the principle that it was the right thing to do.  Protests are also expected on Monday outside Chinas diplomatic mission in Manila. China has said repeatedly that it does not recognise the 2016 ruling, and has continued to expand its artificial islands in Mischief Reef, as well as in Scarborough Shoal, which Manila lost to Beijing in 2012. Dutertes gambit  Campaigning for the presidency in 2016, Duterte charmed voters with his hardline stance on China. In one campaign swing, he promised to ride a jet ski in the South China Sea and challenge the Chinese incursion in Philippine waters. He said he always wanted to die a hero. But as soon as he became president, Duterte started to backpedal on his promises, saying the Philippines cannot afford to take on China because a confrontation would only lead to bloodshed. In a Talk to Al Jazeera interview in October 2016, Duterte also said that his jet ski remark was a hyperbole and that he did not even know how to swim. He later said it was all a joke to show his bravado, and that only stupid people would believe it. In a stunning admission in June 2019, Duterte said he had reached a verbal agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2016 allowing China to fish within the Philippiness EEZ, despite a constitutional mandate that the state must protect its marine wealth, including its EEZ, and reserve its use and enjoyment exclusively to Filipino citizens. In recent months, Chinese vessels, believed to be manned by Chinese maritime militia personnel, were seen in the South China Sea within the Philippines EEZ [File: Philippine Coast Guard/Handout via Reuters] It was a mutual agreement, Duterte explained. Lets give way to each other. You fish there, I fish here.  In several public remarks, Duterte has emphasised that better relations with China have brought economic dividends to the Philippines, through direct investments, financial assistance and loans. Salvador Panelo, who was Dutertes spokesman at the time, defended the deal saying that while it was verbal it was still valid and binding. But Panelos replacement, Harry Roque, said this April that there was no truth to the deal and that it was quite simply conjecture. No such treaty or agreement exists between the Philippines and China, Roque said, explaining that even a fishing agreement can only be done through a treaty and in written form. Swarming  Amid the Duterte administrations diplomatic dithering, the situation in the South China Sea came to a head earlier this year, when several reports revealed that hundreds of Chinese vessels had gathered within the Philippine EEZ. The swarming incident has since been repeated several times, prompting several diplomatic protests by Manila, which denounced Beijings blatant disregard of its commitment to promote peace and stability in the region. In May, the presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels so exasperated Locsin, the Philippines top diplomat, that he fired an expletive-laden statement on social media. Let me see O GET THE F*** OUT, Locsin wrote on Twitter. According to reports, Manila has filed more than 120 diplomatic protests with China over incidents in the disputed waters since 2016. In the past two and a half months, the Philippines has increased its patrols across the South China Sea beyond anything seen in recent years. AMTI tracks their activities and their encounters with Chinese vessels in a new feature: https://t.co/MsEEx0IpLs pic.twitter.com/tN91IqP2C7  AMTI (@AsiaMTI) July 4, 2021  Still, Duterte has remained reluctant to confront China. In recent months, he has said that he wants to maintain friendly ties with China, citing Manilas debt of gratitude for Beijings help in providing coronavirus vaccines. He has also banned his Cabinet from speaking about the South China Sea, after key security and diplomatic officials criticised China for the swarming. But despite Dutertes efforts to cosy up to Beijing, observers say China has only been further emboldened, and the growing tension has now left Manila with no choice but to step up its action to assert its rightful place in the South China Sea. Cabalza, the security analyst based in Manila, said that now is not the time for the Duterte administration to be flip-flopping on foreign policy, urging a more strategic approach that balances the countrys economic and security interests. Chinas art of war and deception should not be taken for granted.  He urged the Philippines to fast-track its military modernisation programme to increase its presence in the aerial and maritime domains and halt the Chinese incursions. If Manila seriously considers balanced and fearless engagement with Beijing, it needs to capacitate on strengthening a robust national security infrastructure that deals with Chinas grey zone strategy and massive disinformation, he said, adding that Manila should also continue filing diplomatic protests every time an incursion happens. South China Sea fait accompli  Koh, the foreign affairs analyst from Singapores S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, also noted how the Philippines has lagged over the years in building up the stick in terms of military capacity to carry out more vigorously maritime patrols within its EEZ. That could have been partly addressed by Manila if Duterte had not gone out of his way to gradually undermine its decades-long alliance with the US, Koh said. Since the beginning of his presidency, Duterte has shown his disdain towards the US, even making the unsubstantiated claim that he could be a target of the CIA. The open expression of desire to prioritise ties with Beijing  even at the expense of the 2016 award, the lack of political will to maintain persistent maritime presence and the alliance relationship with the US would have had the combined effect of emboldening Beijing, he explained to Al Jazeera. With the progress China made in fortifying its artificial islands in the South China Sea, it will be impossible to even envisage that it would willingly relinquish those possessions within the Philippines EEZ, Koh said. Theres no way to reverse the fait accompli short of evicting the Chinese from those artificial outposts by use of force, which would mean war.  Without resorting to armed conflict, it is still possible for the Philippines to assert its maritime sovereignty and rights by putting a principled and consistent stance on the issue, Koh added. He says the Philippines should pursue daily maritime law enforcement actions and patrols of its EEZ. The recent Philippine Coast Guard challenge and dispersal of Chinese and other foreign fishing vessels in the Philippine EEZ, around Sabina Shoal and Marie Louise Bank, is a good example, Koh said. These actions may not compel China to reverse its acts in the South China Sea, but at the very least may help deter Beijing from thinking of more drastic actions to further undermine the status quo.  In May, Chinese vessels also left Sabina Shoal, after the Philippines issued a radio challenge. Hontiveros, an opposition senator and critic of Dutertes South China Sea policy said the radio challenges showed that the Philippines can assert our ownership of the West Philippine Sea without resorting to war.  As a middle power caught in the increasingly heated rivalry between China and the US, the lesson for Manila is to pursue an independent foreign policy, according to Cabalza, the foreign affairs expert who has also studied at the National Defence University in Beijing. Manila should choose its own national interest. It takes courage to depend on its own capability and build it with a vision to protect the countrys own sovereignty and territorial integrity.