How far are the Predators from being a Stanley Cup contender again?
As the Montreal Canadiens, the lowest-seeded team in the playoffs, celebrated their unexpected trip to the Stanley Cup Final last week, it was hard not to think back to May 22, 2017. On that evening four years ago, the Predators did the exact same thing. It was the pinnacle of the franchise. Since that amazing moment, though, the Predators have been tumbling down the mountain with no clear path back to the top. No, and thats reflected by where we finished in the standings (13th) and the fact that Carolina beat us in the (first round of the) playoffs, Predators general manager David Poile said earlier this month. The Athletics Dom Luszczyszyn, using his Game Score Value Added (GSVA) model, created a template for the average championship lineup by analyzing those of recent Stanley Cup winners. GSVA combines traditional and advanced statistics to determine a players value and is a useful tool for getting a sense of the future. (Luszczyszyn explained his methodology here.) Luszczyszyn found that championship teams include most if not all of the following:   An elite No. 1 center.  A top center to play behind the elite center.  An elite first-line winger.  Two top wingers on each of the top two lines.  Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.  An elite No. 1 defenseman.  A second No. 1 defenseman to play behind the elite defenseman.  A top defenseman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2 defenseman.  Another top defenseman who can exploit soft matchups on the third pair.  A top-10 caliber starting goaltender. In order to establish a baseline, here is the Predators lineup from Game 5 against the Hurricanes on May 25. The version on the left includes each players GSVA from this season. The one on the right features the players projected values at the start of the season. Filip Forsberg, for instance, slightly underperformed this season but still graded as a first-line winger, according to the model. On the other hand, Matt Duchene performed at a fourth-line level. Viktor Arvidsson, who was injured for most of the playoffs, had a better-than-expected GSVA of around 1.8 this season. Here is how the Predators compare to the eight teams that reached the second round, according to Luszczyszyns criteria:  Predators fans will not be surprised by the results. The team does not have any elite forwards. Forsberg is the closest, but the quality of his linemates is not helping him reach that level. The Predators check off most of the boxes on defense, but Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis are all in their 30s. Time is not on their side. This exercise requires some guesswork; it does not account for possible trades or free-agent signings but will attempt to highlight the holes that need to be filled. For reference, here is the Predators salary-cap situation, according to CapFriendly:  For this project, Ekholm and Forsberg, whose contracts expire next summer, will be re-signed. Unrestricted free agents Mikael Granlund, Erik Gudbranson, Erik Haula, Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa will not return. The Predators roster will also be impacted by next months Seattle expansion draft. In this scenario, the Kraken take Calle Jarnkrok, leaving an open spot in the top six. In The Athletics recent Predators fan survey, 76.4 percent of 940 respondents said they want the team to pursue a soft reset this offseason, which would involve incorporating more prospects into the lineup. It can be tricky to project the values of young players, since the GSVA model is based only on NHL experience. For example, Rem Pitlick, who appeared in 10 games with the Predators this season, has the qualities of a solid third-line center, even if the model rates him as a fourth-liner based on 11 games in the league, the first of which came in March 2019. Philip Tomasino, 19, is the X-factor. Poile said that the No. 24 pick in the 2019 draft, who had 32 points in 29 AHL games this season, deserves a real good chance to try to make our team next year.  Since 2007-08, skaters selected 24th have provided an average value of around 0.2 in their first NHL seasons, according to Luszczyszyns data. If Tomasino can make the team and exceed expectations, that would go a long way toward firming up the Predators top six next season and into the future. That is a lot to ask of a teenager just beginning his professional career, though. There could be an opening on the left side on the third defensive pair. Jeremy Davies (RFA), David Farrance and Ben Harpur (RFA) are internal candidates to fill that role. (The 1.1 GSVA in the chart represents the average value provided at that position on the championship teams analyzed by Luszczyszyn.) The Predators top defensemen and goaltending should keep them in the mix for a playoff spot next season. But without major additions up front or bounce-back seasons from their highest-paid forwards, they are unlikely to achieve more than that. On Monday, Sportsnets Elliotte Friedman suggested that Arvidsson could be on the trading block this summer. If he is still with the Predators past next season, he could slide down to the third line as he declines, which would create a big hole in the top six. The team-wide GSVA does not paint a pretty picture. At his current rate, Ryan Johansen, who will be 30 when the 2022-23 season starts, will not be far from replacement-level territory. Ekholm, who will be 32, is projected to be less effective, making it important for the Predators to develop defensive depth. Given the age of their core, the Predators probably have two years to execute a Canadiens-like reset. That will require at least a couple of young players to emerge as legitimate top-six talents like Montreals Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. After years of depleting their farm system in pursuit of the Stanley Cup, the Predators are short on high-caliber prospects. If the Predators are unsuccessful, then a full-blown rebuild could be their only choice. (Photo: Frederick Breedon / Getty Images)