Could the First World War have ended in 1915?
Even without doctoring the intelligence that the British obtained from German and American messages (easily done, because Britain owned much of the transmitting infrastructure, and had the better cryptographers), it was quite clear that Germany could not be trusted; but it was also clear that America was trying to play the honest broker, even if this was matched by moments of naivety about German intentions. In the end, it was the Germans who dug their own grave. The Kaiser had been persuaded that the war would be won by whoever starved last, and was attempting to sink as much of the British merchant fleet as possible. The decision, in winter 1917, to resume submarine warfare  suspended two years earlier after the sinking of the Lusitania  brought America into the war, to protect its shipping and civilians. At that point, America made Britain the War Loan that saved its skin. It could all have been very different. When, in an ill-judged interview in the autumn of 1916, Lloyd George had promised that the war would go on until the Allies delivered a knockout blow, America was at the point of cutting Britain off without another cent. It was already exporting so much food to Britain that domestic prices were rising steeply, and causing growing unrest. As Reginald McKenna, Asquiths chancellor knew, the game was very nearly up. As Larsens invaluable, gripping and entertaining book shows, in the end Britain was only saved from humiliation by German belligerence. Plotting for Peace is published by CUP at 29.99. To order your copy for 25 call 0844 871 1514 or visit the Telegraph Bookshop