What Will Gabino's Departure Mean for the ELN?
The retirement of the ELN's top commander and political leader may have sweeping implications for the guerrilla group as it seeks to maintain its position in both Colombia and Venezuela. Nicols Rodrguez Bautista, alias Gabino, said in a communication that poor health had led him to resign command of the National Liberation Army (Ejrcito de Liberacin Nacional - ELN). Elicer Erlinto Chamorro, alias Antonio Garca," will take over as the head of Colombia's remaining rebel force, the communication said. SEE ALSO: Colombia News and Profile  Gabino and Garcia are part of the ELN's five-member Central Command, which has been in Cuba since 2018 for peace negotiations with the Colombian government. Talks, however, broke down in 2019 after the government blamed the ELN for a car bomb attack at a Bogota police academy. President Ivn Duque subsequently demanded that Cuba extradite the guerrilla leaders, but the island nation has refused to do so under the grounds of peace negotiation protocols. Though he has resigned, Gabino said in the communication that he would be "available to represent the ELN in future peace talks." The guerrilla leaders said in a separate communication that Israel Ramrez Pineda, alias Pablo Beltrn," will serve under Antonio Garca, and Gustavo Anbal Giraldo, alias Pablo Marn o Pablito will be third-in-command. It was reported previously that Gabino had been receiving medical treatment in Cuba, though he has not revealed his illness. InSight Crime Analysis  Gabinos announcement is unique. No guerrilla commander of his stature in Colombia has ever retired in this way. His counterparts have either been killed, captured, died of natural causes, or put down their arms as part of a peace process. The timing of this announcement is also unique. Since the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - FARC) demobilized in 2016, the ELN has grown to be arguably the most significant criminal threat in Colombia and Venezuela. It has taken over criminal industries, military capacity, territory and even manpower from the FARC. Its fronts now control or contest virtually every major criminal economy in the two countries, especially illegal gold mining and drug trafficking. The group has seemingly achieved vertical integration in the cocaine trade: overseeing coca production, transporting cocaine over land, even owning their own semi-submersible drug submarines to export it. Much of this criminal activity was not to Gabinos liking. An eternal opposer of the ELNs participation in the drug trade, Gabino last stated in October 2020 that the group had no connection to the production of cocaine in Colombia. In an interview with InSight Crime, Luis Eduardo Celis, an expert on conflict in Colombia, stated that Garca may well have his own stance on drug trafficking. "He may remind the ELN structures that profits from drug trafficking are to contribute to the group's armed struggle, not for personal wealth," Celis said. But the ELN's resounding success in pushing out criminal rivals in Colombias northeastern Catatumbo region has given it control over a colossal coca production base. It also maintains a strong presence in Nario to the south and Choc in the west, both major cocaine trafficking hubs. It is now the de facto principal guardian of Colombia's coca industry. Neither Garca nor any other ELN leader, be they old-guard ideologue or new-fangled pragmatist, is likely to even try to sever that connection. So while he did state his retirement was due to health reasons, Gabino may have stepped away in order to maintain a measure of control over the transition. His legacy  having signed up at the age of 14 in 1964  and his dedication to the ELNs Marxist-Leninist ideals are above question. Since the death of ELN leader, Gregorio Manuel Prez Martnez, alias El Cura Prez, in 1998, Gabino has been remarkable in keeping the ELNs disparate elements under one umbrella. For Celis, Gabino will still play an important role in the organization. "This is formalizing the transition to power of Antonio Garca...but they have made decisions collectively since Manuel Prez," the analyst told InSight Crime. Passing the torch so publicly to Garca will go a long way toward assuring that the decision is more easily accepted. The leaders haven't left Cuba since 2018. But (despite that), I think the ELN has maintained its cohesion, those in Cuba are its political leadership. This is an organization with dozens of commanders but I do not think there has been any fragmentation," Celis said. But Garca will soon have to face dilemmas of his own. Differences inside the ELN may have only grown in the three years that Gabino, Garca and others have been stuck in Cuba.