Where will the Shell (RDSB) share price go in June?
Investing in big oil, like Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) and BP, isnt exactly popular these days. Its all down to this climate change thing, and the growing desire to move away from hydrocarbons. It shows in the RDSB share price, down more than 45% over the past two years. Weve seen a small upwards blip in the first week of June, with Shell shares rising 3% in the month so far. Thats pretty much at background noise levels though. Shell gave us a reminder Monday that maybe we shouldnt write it off just yet. 5G is here  and shares of this sleeping giant could be a great way for you to potentially profit! According to one leading industry firm, the 5G boom could create a global industry worth US$12.3 TRILLION out of thin air And if you click here well show you something that could be key to unlocking 5Gs full potential... The company released details of its first-quarter dividend payments in various currencies. In sterling, the payment amounts to 12.26p per share. If we assume well see the same for each of the next three quarters, that would be a total of 49p per share. And that would provide a yield of 3.7%. Its not the biggest yield in the FTSE 100. But if it proves reliable, I think it could make Shell an attractive long-term buy. And that could mean the RDSB share price is currently too low. Shell is one of those companies thats been reluctant to meddle with its dividend policy for decades. Just keep it growing slowly and steadily, and ignore the short-term market. That saw Shell through the previous oil price crisis just fine. But the pandemic shock, coupled with escalating political pressure on energy markets, meant that couldnt hold forever. So Shell has rebased its dividends, setting a new level which the company believes is now sustainable. The dividend cut has resulted in a depressed RDSB share price, but I cant help wondering if the sell-off has been overdone. Now, Im no energy industry analyst. And Ive no hope of quantifying the likely state of the world energy markets over the coming years. So I cant judge based on my own expertise. But the long-term conservative nature of Shells approach to dividends makes me think the company has put a lot of thought into the level it thinks can now be sustained. In short, Shell seems more likely to be able to analyse its own dividend abilities than anyone. Had it been a small oil company, or any other company without such a long and stable history, Id place little confidence in its dividend proclamations. But I find myself trusting Shell. Well, as far as Id trust any company. Well, I do have my upbeat feeling about the dividend. But amid the massive uncertainty facing the energy business right now, Shell might just have got it wrong. To answer the question in the title of this piece, I think the Shell share price could easily show a bit more summer optimism and head upwards in June. Yet against the background of negativity, Im not going to buy now. But Ill keep watching.