Is Iran's Islamic Revolution running out of puff?
Satoshi Ikeuchi is professor of religion and global security at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo. Iran's presidential election ended as expected, with Ebrahim Raisi securing a landslide victory. A conservative Islamic jurist who presided over Iran's judicial system under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Raisi was widely recognized as the candidate chosen by the powers that be deep within the revolutionary regime. A protege of Khamenei, this was more like a Shiite divine nomination than a democratic election. Set to take office in August with a very good chance of winning reelection after four years, Raisi can be expected to serve up to eight years as president. During that time, there is a high probability that he will preside over the selection of Iran's next supreme leader. It could even be himself. With Raisi safe in his position as president-elect, Iran has entered the long season of succession politics, which will coincide with the wider generational changing of the guard that has ruled the country since the 1979 revolution. According to Ibn Khaldun, the great Arab philosopher of history, the sustainability of any political regime or dynasty is determined by the strength of a concept known as assabiya. This can be translated to mean "group cohesion" or "solidarity." According to Ibn Khaldun's "Muqaddimah," which means "An Introduction to History," strong cohesion and solidarity among a society's dominant groups is the key to establishing and sustaining political regimes. Tribal blood ties are the most effective when it comes to cementing solidarity, but religious convictions, or fervor, suffice. Groups with strong cohesion tend to rise from the marginal and disadvantaged parts of society to conquer the affluent center clustered in the capital. After a new regime establishes itself, group cohesion weakens as succeeding generations take their place in the ruling elite. By the third generation, signs of decay usually begin to emerge, often resulting in disintegration and collapse by the fourth generation. If Ibn Khaldun's theory is true for today's Middle East, then the Iranian regime is about to enter a very difficult phase. The Islamic Republic of Iran was established by the 1979 revolution led by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini that overthrew the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Born in 1902, Khomeini was revered and lionized by revolutionary lieutenant clerics in their 30s or 40s such as Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, who would later serve as president, as well as his successor, Ali Khamenei. The outgoing president, Hassan Rouhani, who was born in 1948, was among the youngest of the 1979 leaders. A mural of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran, pictured in July 2019: Khomeini was revered and lionized by revolutionary lieutenant clerics.  WANA/Reuters  Born in 1960, Raisi was among the innumerous and nameless youths who comprised the foot soldiers of the revolutionary mass movement. It was people like him who provided the muscle needed to bring down the shah's repressive regime. In the revolution's aftermath, these people fought off the other factions trying to seize power. Having accomplished that, the same revolutionary youths were sent to the front line in the Iran-Iraq war, which continued through most of the 1980s, and tasked with defending the revolution against the then-U.S.-backed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. This means that Raisi, who was only 18 when he joined the revolution, spent his youth either fighting other revolutionary factions or serving as a soldier in the war against Iraq. Climbing the political ladder under the aegis of the revolution's leaders, he is now about to take the helm of administrative power. For the generation of revolutionary youths who were around age 20 in 1979, now is their moment, particularly in the military and security apparatus. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is that generation's main stronghold, and they have spent most of their lives fighting. It is the IRGC that has the upper hand in the revolutionary regime on military and security issues, wielding far more power than the discredited regular army. Now in their 60s, these men are increasingly in charge of the government itself. Although Iran's Islamic Republic was established by a revolution that was partly built on Khomeini's Shiite ideology of the just rulers, and partly on republicanism. The de facto nomination of Raisi by the Supreme Leader dealt a fatal blow to republican ideals, while popular support for the concept of velayat-e-faqih, or rule of the clerics, has been faded devoid of Khomeini's vital charisma. All that is left is a coercive revolutionary apparatus infused with Iranian nationalism. With a former revolutionary cleric at the helm, many will be hoping that he can steer the revolution toward higher religious purity. This may enhance the cohesion of core interest groups within the system, but it could also alienate the wider public and shorten the longevity of the regime. Revolution is a one-time event. When the shah was ousted, and the old elites with him, Iran's political system was rejuvenated. Now four decades have passed, and the regime -- ruled by a cadre of aging leaders -- is one of the most mature in the Middle East. In the Middle East today, the most fundamental element of politics is generational succession, either in tribal dynasties or revolutionary regimes. How President-elect Raisi, a revolutionary youth turned hard-line old guard, prolongs and perpetuates the aging revolution will be the focus of the coming decade.