Why are the Tokyo Olympics still taking place?
The Olympics have always been about numbers. After all, a motto of Citius, Altius, Fortius faster, higher, stronger does not mean much without seconds, meters and pounds. For more than a year, however, a different set of numbers has dominated discussions over the Tokyo Games: rising numbers of coronavirus cases, escalating risk factors, inadequate vaccination totals. Despite those concerns, the Games will almost certainly go ahead this summer: The latest evidence was the announcement on Monday that limited-capacity domestic spectators would be allowed to attend Olympic events. These numbers may help explain why the Games have not yet taken place a month before the opening ceremony. $15.4 billion  If Tokyos new national stadium is empty on the night of the opening ceremony, it will be $15.4 billion in investments mostly down the drain. The figure, a record even for the famously oversized Olympic budgets, has risen by $3 billion in the past year alone. However, the reputational damage for Japan, on top of the loss of money, would be incalculable. This was the branding exercise that would showcase Earths lifestyle superpower, said Jesper Koll, an investment advisor who has lived in Japan for more than three decades. In the end, its not about whether the construction costs are recouped or not, but whether the brand of the country gets a boost. Much of the benefit that hoteliers or restaurants in Tokyo could have expected from hosting the Games has already evaporated, as organizers banned international spectators in March. And even the Olympic visitors allowed to enter Japan wont experience most of Tokyos charms because the rules restrict them to Olympic venues. $4 billion  Thats the potential amount of television rights revenue that the International Olympic Committee, which organizes and directs the Games, could repay if the Olympics are not held. The grade is good for 73 percent of IOC revenue. Sponsorships related to the Games are worth hundreds of millions of dollars more, and a cancellation would mean those companies could also look for discounts. $1.25 billion  The U.S. broadcasting rights to the Summer Olympics are among the most valuable sports assets in the world, and the advertising revenue they regularly produce also makes them some of the most profitable. In March 2020, NBC Universal, which owns the U.S. broadcast rights to the Games, announced that it had sold $1.25 billion worth of national advertising for the Tokyo Olympics. That surpassed the amount sold for the 2016 Rio Olympics, which generated $1.62 billion in total revenue for the company and $250 million in profits. And even a one-year delay cant hurt NBCs bottom line. Jeff Shell, the chief executive of NBC Universal, told an investor conference last week that, depending on ratings, the Tokyo Olympics could be our most profitable Olympics in company history. $549 million  The word solidarity appears 406 times in the IOCs latest annual report. The main reference is to the $549 million it distributes in so-called so solidarity and other payments to national Olympic committees, large and small. (The IOC accounts dont give a breakdown of who gets what). For many Olympic committees, the generosity of the IOC, which pays for everything from administrative costs to training grants to youth development programs, is a vital financial lifeline. For example, on the Caribbean island of St. Lucia, IOC funding represents about a quarter of the annual revenue of the national Olympic committees $600,000, according to Richard Peterkin, a former IOC member. But larger countries also count on the money. Earlier this year, the British Olympic Association raised in its annual report the prospect of a financial collapse if this summers Games were cancelled. Canceling the Games later than May 2021, the directors recently concluded, would create material uncertainty that could cast significant doubt on the companys ability to continue as a going concern. 15,500  The postponement of the Olympics forced thousands of athletes about 11,100 for the Olympics and another 4,400 for the Paralympic Games, representing more than 200 countries, to put their lives on hold for a year. To recommit to another 12 months of training. To postpone marriage plans and college enrollments and even plans to have children. So its no surprise that in general, competitors around the world are eager for the Games to finally take place. My next chapter was about to happen, said Delante Johnson, 22, a Cleveland boxer who wanted to turn pro in 2021. He decided to keep his amateur status for another year, in part to fulfill a promise he made to his former coach, Clint Martin, who died in 2015. He always told me I was going to the Olympics, Johnson said, and I stand by what he said. For Olympians who have spent their lives chasing their dreams, the Games are everything. They can open the door to sponsorship opportunities, to bonus money for medals, to post-game careers. For many, they also provide the rare opportunity to perform in front of a global audience. We finally got to have that excitement, and Im just dizzy, said Kaleigh Gilchrist, 29, a water polo player from Newport Beach, California. We can finally show all the hard work weve done. 37%  That is the current favorable rating for Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, who may fear that his political fortunes are now too closely tied to the Games to cancel them. Politically, hell be dead in the water if he pulls the plug, said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo. With national elections coming up in September, Kingston said, Suga could now see the Olympics as a potential lifeline. For Suga and his government, organizing a successful and safe Olympics would provide a huge political advantage. The flip side, of course, is the risk of a public health disaster that costs lives and hurts Japanese economy. That would do far more serious damage than just Sugas personal political reputation. This is the potential making of the Godzilla variant, Kingston said.