What does Tuesdays unenthusiastic primary tell us about Ben Walshs odds in November?
Syracuse, N.Y.  We wont know for several more days who won the Democratic primary for mayor, but theres one person who wasnt on the ballot who may have done pretty well Tuesday: Ben Walsh. The failure of either major party to generate significant interest in the mayors race could prove a good sign for Walsh as he seeks re-election in November. If the parties are unable to unite against him or turn out lots more voters, Walsh could cruise to a second term. In total, 6,799 people voted in the two primaries for mayor -- just 14% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans. Thats 5,956 Democrats and 843 Republicans. When he won in 2017, Walsh received 13,013 votes. Thats almost double the number of people who voted for all four candidates combined on Tuesday. Of course, its not an apples to apples comparison. General elections are open to all voters, not just members of a political party. And they typically have higher turnout than primaries. But the lagging interest in the primary could signal that many voters -- including registered Democrats and Republicans -- are simply waiting until November. That either means theyve already decided that Walsh is their guy, or they plan to vote for whichever candidate wins a primary to challenge him. As of publication, Khalid Bey led Michael Greene in the Democratic primary by just 46 votes. The race will ultimately be decided by absentee ballots next week. Janet Burman beat Thomas Babilon in the Republican primary. County Comptroller Marty Masterpole, a veteran Democratic politico in Syracuse, said the ballot presence of Walsh, an independent, makes it nearly impossible to predict voter trends. Its forced strategists to throw decades of traditional political wisdom out the window. Democrats knew or should have known that Bens gonna be tough to beat. His name is Walsh, hes an incumbent and hes got half a million dollars in the bank, Masterpole said (Walsh had just shy of $400,000 to start the year). A divided party almost certainly benefits Walshs re-election effort. That was the case four years ago, when a number of prominent, elected Democrats broke ranks as part of Walshs Dems for Ben movement. He ultimately won most neighborhoods in the city, including traditional Democratic strongholds like the 17th ward. Bob Andrews, a political strategist who formerly worked for Walsh, said a divided voter base provided an opening for Walsh to win people over. It was effectively a tie, so theres a divide in the electorate, he said. A continued split in the party I think would favor Mayor Walsh  a split Democratic Party has to benefit him, hes an independent.  Masterpole isnt so convinced the Democrats are as divided this time around, regardless of who ends up the victor in the primary. He said a negative whisper campaign in 2017 worked against the partys nominee, Juanita Perez Williams. Masterpole was a candidate in the primary that year. He hasnt yet seen that kind of animosity toward either Bey or Greene. Walt Dixie, a longtime activist and the executive director of Jubilee Homes on the southwest side, said it wont be a question of whether Walsh wins in November, itll be a question of how much he wins by. Dixie, a Democrat who ran for Common Council and came up short this week, endorsed Walsh four years ago. The mayor has been walking these streets in the underground community better than anybody, he said. Hes been at the progressive barber shops, beauty salons... hes done the kind of work that, if you want to be a politician, you do what hes done.  The low turnout in the primary, while disappointing, he said, shows that the Democrats werent as able to energize voters as Walsh traditionally has been. Dixie pointed to Greenes role as chairman of the influential 17th ward Democratic committee as a sign of the partys diminishing power in recent years. Someone as young and new as Greene would never ascend so quickly to such a powerful role in the old days, Dixie said. For an outsider to be running the 17th ward... in the old days a guy like him couldnt be running that without paying his dues, Dixie said. That just shows you how weak its become.  Greene, 34, grew up in Onondaga Hill and then lived in New York City before moving to Syracuse in 2016. He bought a house on Cumberland Avenue in 2018. Andrews said there are really two ways of looking at the primary, if youre in Walshs position. On the one hand, the glass is half full, since Democrats werent jumping up and down to find someone to run against Walsh, he said. On the other hand you could say this is going to be tough, because people arent excited about voting. Maybe theyre not that excited about voting at all because they dont think government works for them. And that creates many problems.  Other races on the ballot in November could also work in a Democrats favor, Masterpole said. Democrats are pushing to flip the county legislature, challenging every seat and focusing resources on those races. What I think helps are some down-ticket shenanigans, Masterpole said, and the fact there are contested races in the city for county leg and the council.  If Democratic city candidates like Mary Kuhn, Bill Kinne and Peggy Chase are in tight races, theyll likely turn out a lot of voters who could vote for the Democrat over Walsh. Power and the money  Walsh has two other big factors working in his favor this year: Money and the mayors office. Walsh started the year with just more than $378,000 in his campaign account. If Bey holds on to win the primary, hell essentially be starting from scratch. He had spent all but $2,245 heading into primary day. Greene, on the other hand, had more than $37,000 remaining as of June 11, the most recent filing date. Thats still just 10% of Walshs total. Burman, the Republican nominee, finished May with just less than $2,400 to spend. More important than money, though, Walsh is an incumbent in an area that, historically, tends to stick with incumbents. In the modern political era, no Syracuse mayor has ever been voted out of office. To find the last one-term mayor of Syracuse, youve got to go back 50 years to Anthony Henninger. Henninger was mayor from 1958 to 1961. When he took office, the city still had a one-term limit for mayors. That term limit was lifted effective for the next mayor. Henninger considered running again, but the Republican Party had other plans. They nominated William Walsh, Ben Walshs grandfather. This year, Mayor Ben Walsh will ask voters to give him a second term, seeking to avoid becoming the first mayor ever voted out of office. Hell face the challenge of having two major parties working against him. A typical incumbent has just one, if any. The areas affinity for incumbents partly prompted the Common Council to establish and maintain term limits for mayors in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1938, the city established a one-term limit for mayors. That was erased in 1960 with the writing of a new city charter. In 1985, after Lee Alexander had spent 16 years as mayor, the council established a two-term limit for mayors. Alexanders successor, Tom Young, mounted a campaign to get rid of that law in 1990. It was unsuccessful. Low turnout  Its hard to say why, exactly, turnout in this years primary was so low. Pam Hunter, chair of the Onondaga County Democratic Committee, chalked it up to voter fatigue. She said many people are exhausted after a bruising presidential election last year. Masterpole said thats one factor. He also noted that this is the first mayoral primary to take place in June -- past primaries have been in September. People might not be used to voting during summer yet, he said, especially in a local race. Dixie attributed the low turnout to a number of social factors, noting especially that young people are less inclined to vote in local government races. Also, the money spent in this primary paled in comparison to four years ago. Three candidates that year spent more than $400,000, including paying for television ads. Altogether this year, the four candidates spent less than $100,000 on the primary. None aired television ads. Andrews, the political strategist, said the low turnout might have resulted from apathy about the political process -- people just arent thrilled about party politics. I dont believe that there is a lack of interest in whos mayor, he said. I think theres a lack of interest in the process of getting the mayor.