Will Tokyo Olympics Become Covid-19 Coronavirus Superspreader Event?
A survey in mid-May found that 84% of Japanese residents do not want the Summer Olympics to occur as ... [+] scheduled, given the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Yuichi Yamazaki/Getty Images) Getty Images  Heres one event that no human should want to see at the upcoming Summer Olympic Games: superspreading. The Covid-19 coronavirus may have a different opinion. The latest installment of the Summer Olympics is set to begin on July 23 in Tokyo, Japan. July 23 is also International Yada, Yada, Yada Day. One concern is that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) especially the more contagious Delta variant may yada, yada sex, which, in the case of the virus, is not really sex but simply reproducing a lot. And then it may yada, yada spread all around the world, which, in turn, may result in a yada, yada super-duper-spreader event that would yada, yada suck. Thats because over 15,000 athletes and delegates from over 200 countries around the world will collect for about two weeks in Japan, while Japan is in the middle of a Covid-19 state of emergency. This past week, Japans Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared such a state in Japan, effective two days ago and extending through August 22. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has declared a Covid-19 state of emergency in Tokyo, Japan, ... [+] effective on Monday and extending through August 22. (Photo by David Mareuil - Pool/Getty Images) Getty Images  Of course, governments dont declare states of emergencies simply because they are bored and there is nothing good to watch on Netflix. Japan has been experiencing a surge in Covid-19 cases with 896 new reported infections last Thursday, which is close to what daily levels were like in mid-May. So expect the government to impose more social distancing measures. Last year, while Japan was not as effective at controlling the SARS-CoV2 as other countries in their region like Taiwan and South Korea were, Japan was still much better than much of Europe and the U.S. Of course, being better than the U.S. in 2020 was a bit like throwing a shotput further than a squirrel. The U.S. didnt set a very high bar with more reported cases, over 33.7 million, and more reported Covid-19-related deaths, over 606,000, than any other country on Earth. By contrast, Japan has had 814,315 cases and 14,865 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Thats considerably fewer than the U.S. even when accounting for the fact that Japan has fewer people: 124.7 million in Japan versus 332.5 million in the U.S.  People wearing face masks are seen at the train station as they go back to their home in early ... [+] evening in Tokyo, Japan on April 26, 2021. (Photo by David Mareuil/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Anadolu Agency via Getty Images  But in recent months Japan has become more like that person furiously using a plunger to keep a toilet from overflowing. They are trying to hold back what could be big surge in Covid-19 coronavirus cases. As Joshua Cohen wrote for Forbes back on May 24, Japan had a 12,312 total Covid-19 death tally at the time and approximately 80% of all these deaths had occurred in 2021. Moreover, only about a quarter of the Japanese population has been vaccinated against Covid-19 so far. Thats left the country rather exposed. When a toilet looks like it may overflow, the last thing you want to do is pour some more water into it. Similarly, this wouldnt be the best time to potentially bring additional Covid-19 coronavirus cases into Japan. This newly declared state of emergency shouldnt be too much of a surprise. After all, the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic is still bleeping happening. In the months leading up to the Games, public health experts have raised concerns about holding the Olympic Games in the middle of the pandemic. Bringing so many people from around the world together to mix and then return to their countries could be a wet dream for the SARS-CoV2. This could essentially further seed the virus, including the more contagious Delta variant, in over 200 different countries. Moreover, any place where the SARS-CoV2 has a chance to reproduce often can serve as a cauldron for generating and propagating new Covid-19 coronavirus variants. Each time the virus replicates, it can be like a drunk person trying photocopy his or her butt at work (which by the way, you shouldnt do). The resulting copies can have mistakes, i.e., mutations, that generate variations from the original. Heres another thing that could add to the potential toilet bowl of a situation. A number of the athletes and accompanying delegates may not be vaccinated. Thats because the International Olympic Committee (IOC) will not be requiring them to be fully vaccinated before entering Japan and participating in the Olympics Games. A couple wearing face masks takes selfie photographs in front of the Olympic flame. (Photo by Clive ... [+] Rose/Getty Images) Getty Images  For Japan, winning the right to host 2020 Summer Olympics Games may not have felt much like winning. At times, hosting the latest installment of the Games has seemed more like wearing a pair of sandpaper underwear, bedazzled with broken glass. First of all, the Games didnt even occur in 2020, instead being postponed to 2021 because of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. And now it looks like these Tokyo Games will take place July 23 to August 8 right in the midst of a freaking emergency. These Olympic Games may not even have spectators. Even before the emergency was declared, the Olympic organizers had placed the following ceilings: no more than 50 percent capacity at each venue or 10,000 people, whichever is less. With the state of emergency that may further limit public gatherings, this could be the first Olympic Games where there are no in-person spectators. Nevertheless, the IOC has insisted that the Games must go on as planned. After all, lot of money is seemingly at stake here. The Japanese government has been pushing forward too despite the majority of the Japanese public seemingly saying wait, in the words of Maroon 5. According to a phone survey conducted by Asahi Shimbuna in Japan in mid-May, 43 percent of respondents thought the Olympics should be canceled and 40 percent thought the Olympics should be postponed again.  Japan is in a tough position right now. Certainly, many businesses have been banking on these Olympics and therefore may be pushing for the Games to go on as planned. Many Olympic athletes probably dont want to see their dreams further deferred either. At the same time, having people assemble from around the world is one of the worst things that can happen to a country thats trying to prevent a massive surge. Ideally, you want to at least get the virus under better control first before even thinking about staging a massive international event. Its not great for the world either. Whatever happens in Japan isnt likely going to stay in Japan since all of the athletes and accompanying coaches and staff will be returning to their home countries. The global community needs to find ways to get more vaccines to Japan so that more of their population can be protected before the Olympic begin. Making sure that athletes and delegates are fully vaccinated before going to Japan could help as well. Both of these steps would make it much harder for the SARS-CoV2 to have a successful Olympics. The Olympic motto is Citius, Altius, Fortius, which is Latin for faster, higher, stronger. The hope is that this wont apply to the Covid-19 coronavirus as well.