Is the Saudi-Houthi battle for Yemen on the brink of peace?
Oman, long seen as a neutral party in the Middle East, has spent the past few weeks trying to bring Saudi Arabia and Yemens Houthi rebels to the negotiating table. The goal is ambitious  to end the war in Yemen, or at least Riyadhs involvement in it, which began in March 2015 in support of the Yemeni government. If reports are to be believed, mediators may be close to success, and Iranian-allied Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are reviewing the terms of a peace deal. Yet despite Omani attempts, this may be wishful thinking. The good news is that the emphasis is clearly more on direct negotiations with the Houthi leadership in Sanaa, Peter Salisbury, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Yemen, told Al Jazeera. The bad news is that it has not yet closed the gap between the positions of the Houthis and the Saudis. Until that happens, we wont see much movement. The positions of both sides have changed little since a Saudi offer of a national ceasefire in Yemen was rejected by the Houthis in March. The Houthis say elements of this offer, such as the reopening of Sanaa airport and unimpeded access to the port of Hodeidah, where the majority of Yemeni food is imported, should be unconditional. After that, we will discuss a comprehensive ceasefire which should be a true cessation of hostilities, not a fragile truce, and which would include the exit of foreign powers from Yemen to facilitate political negotiations, he told Reuters Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesperson for the Houthis. news agency on June 21. These conditions are difficult for the Saudis to accept, and despite six years of a costly war that have hardly succeeded, Riyadh is unlikely to be willing to abandon Yemen with few guarantees of its own security and with an ally of its. biggest regional opponent. , Iran, entrenched on its southern border. Until now, the Saudis wanted rock-solid guarantees on border security and Iranian influence in Yemen, and wanted an ally to play an influential role in politics in the future, Salisbury said. That position may have calmed down a bit, but ending the war with just, say, a border deal and nothing else, would be a bitter pill to swallow.  For their part, the Houthis believe that the balance of power has changed and that they have the upper hand militarily. The rebel group, which continues to hold the vast majority of the densely populated northern and central highlands, believes it can dictate the terms  and timing  of any peace deal. The Houthis have a military front-row seat on the ground in Yemen, and are continuing their attempts to take Marib, the last key government stronghold in the north of the country. Their military capabilities are also intensifying with missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory increasingly widespread and hitting major Saudi population centers, including Riyadh and Jeddah. The United States recently removed the Houthis from the State Departments list of foreign terrorist organizations and appointed a special envoy to Yemen [File: Mohammed Huwais/AFP]  Push for peace  International efforts to end the fighting in Yemen and reduce the humanitarian suffering of millions of people in what the UN has long called the worlds worst humanitarian crisis, have intensified this year. The renewed vigor followed the arrival of the new Biden administration in January in the United States. The government immediately indicated that US policy in Yemen would differ, at least slightly, from that of the Trump administration. The war in Yemen must end, President Joe Biden said in his first notable foreign policy speech in February, while also announcing that the United States would cease supporting offensive operations in Yemen in support of the led coalition. by Saudi Arabia. The United States also quickly removed the Houthis from the State Departments list of foreign terrorist organizations and appointed a special envoy to Yemen. While firmly insisting on continued US support for Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government, envoy Tim Lenderking also recently called the Houthis a legitimate actor.  My experience with the Houthis is that they have spoken of a commitment to peace in Yemen and I think there are certainly elements within the leadership that are in favor of that, Lenderking said. last week. Long-term realities  But the gaping differences between the Houthis and their adversaries, especially the Yemeni government and other forces deployed against them, show little sign of abating. And even if the Saudis pull out, the war is likely to continue to some extent on the ground, and possibly escalate further, if a loose Saudi-held anti-Houthi coalition collapses. The anti-Houthi side believes that the rebel group cannot be trusted and refers to the agreements reached as evidence. The experience that we saw before our eyes is Hodeidah, said Baraa Shiban, a former member of the Yemen National Dialogue Conference, in reference to a deal that ended a coalition campaign for the largely Houthi-owned Red Sea port city in December. 2018. For Yemenis, this is a terrible role model, Shiban told Al Jazeera. You have a 6 km road, and there have been negotiations for three years just to remove the landmines and the barricades, and they couldnt do it.   It is neither realistic nor sustainable, added Shiban. Maybe something will be signed, but everyone will be waiting with their fingers on the trigger for it to explode again.