How would College Football Playoff expansion have affected Florida in the past?
Florida has never made it to the College Football Playoff since the system was created in 2014. However, that may change sooner rather than later, as a subcommittee tasked with exploring potential playoff expansion has recommended that the CFP expand to 12 teams beginning some point after the 2022 season. Well, the team wouldve still been absent from the playoff for its first four years, but UF would have cracked the field for the first time in Dan Mullens first season in 2018. The Gators finished that year ranked No. 10 and would have had to travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan, who they faced anyway that postseason in the Peach Bowl and beat. If they replicated their real-life performance against the Wolverines, they would have faced No. 2 Clemson in the quarterfinals. Floridas odds of winning that game and advancing to the semifinals were just 16%, according to ESPNs Bill Connelly. The following year, UF wouldve had to travel back to the frigid north to take on Wisconsin in a battle between eight and nine seeds. If Kyle Trask guided his team past that ferocious Badgers defense, the Gators would have drawn a rematch against SEC champion LSU in an exciting Sugar Bowl matchup that Connelly gave UF a 15% chance to advance beyond. This past season would have been Floridas first time taking home-field advantage for a first-round matchup, as the 10th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones would have traveled to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on No. 7-seed UF. Though the Gators wouldve drawn a tough quarterfinal matchup in the Orange Bowl against Clemson, Connelly gave them the highest odds to advance to a semifinal after the top four at 29%, indicating that last years team was the best of Mullens three on paper, even if the final 8-4 record didnt show it. If an expanded playoff is implemented, it will fundamentally change the way success is measured for schools like Florida. Making the playoff will become the expectation, not just the goal. But if Mullens early tenure is any indicator, UF should be competitive to make the playoffs year in and year out when expansion becomes a reality.