How will the UK economy emerge from the shadow of COVID-19?
By the end of this year or early next year, the economy looks set to return to the overall activity level we recorded at the end of 2019. However, even if total activity returns to pre-crisis levels and services and construction lead, manufacturing or agriculture is likely to do so. We also expect to see significant regional differences in the near term, with Londons economic outlook showing the most resilient and the Midlands and Northern Ireland appearing particularly vulnerable. More importantly, the economy has lost about two years of economic growth and sectors that are very important to UK plc such as hospitality and arts could be scarred for some time to come. Its too early to take out the bunting. There are three specific areas to look out for in the second half of this year. First, at the end of the dormancy regime in the labor market, we need to understand the percentage of those employees that the enterprise will return to and how many roles will overlap. Second, the percentage of start-ups was high, and so far, companies have not suffered major bankruptcies and defaults. While this tends to be a good indicator of future employment and can support future productivity, these new corporate formations have been strongest in areas that are best able to withstand social distancing. They may not necessarily be the best companies to promote lasting prosperity. There are also concerns that the corporate sector now carries more debt, which could be a stumbling block to employment and investment. Third, as an economy sensitive to fluctuations in global trade, the UK is apt to live up to the adage that it wont end for anyone until its done for all. This means that rejected prospects for tourism, international trade and labor mobility could be a stumbling block to UK activity as long as the crisis casts a shadow. So selfishness as well as ethical issues mean that we must take the lead in asserting immunity to intellectual property so that vaccine technology can be shared with the world. We cannot think in terms of fixed production capacity in an economy where policy is simply responsible for driving demand. Government and UK banking policies should be used to support the most efficient and dynamic production of goods and services. Care must be taken to maintain confidence in our institutions to manage inflation risks and the stability of the financial system. But as we face obstacles to our recovery from Covid-19, the Treasury and central banks must also show flexibility to support our continued fight back from the pandemic. Currently, our doomed fiscal framework is overseen by the Treasury over the rules the government has set for governing public finances, and we await the next iteration. But we dont need more random rules. Fiscal policy should focus on regional and household inequalities highlighted and exacerbated by the pandemic. Last spring, monetary policy responded well to initial lockdowns with the Bank of England lowering interest rates and increasing the size of its quantitative easing program. With the trains recovery, its time to complete the forward-looking work and better explain what will happen to the banks base rate and asset purchase inventory as the economy recovers. It is not enough to focus our attention on small changes in the base rate that may or may not be significant. Importantly, financial capital is in line with the most productive outlook in the best global conditions. Not so long ago, what mattered was when and how Brexit was delivered, and what it meant for an economy that suffered a long period of low investment. Now, as we think about how we can get out of the Covid crisis, it is the human capital and physical capital gap that we need to nurture to deliver sustainable and balanced growth across the country. This is the biggest problem we face. Jagjit S Chadha is Director of the National Institute of Economics and Social Sciences. Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/30/how-will-the-uk-economy-emerge-from-the-shadow-of-covid-19 The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article  What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online  LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. 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