What happens when states and their cities are adversaries?
Last September, presenting his proposed 2021 budget, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett laid out a somber picture of his citys finances. Even before COVID-19 hit, Barrett said, our budget challenges reached a crescendo. Just weeks earlier, the citys bond rating was downgraded, in part because it was spending down reserves. Weve [spent those reserves] to maintain our vital services without any growing revenue, Barrett continued. This, of course, is a direct result of our relationship with the State of Wisconsin and legislature in particular.  The states revenue had increased 61% over the past two decades, he added, but in 2021, Milwaukee would receive $272 million, less than the $284 million the state shared in 2003, when the citys general fund was 25% smaller. Over the years, Barrett has given up on getting a bigger slice of state revenue and has focused more of his efforts on trying to raise it locally. Finally I said, please take the handcuffs off and let me generate revenue from sales tax, he said in an interview with MarketWatch. But the state legislature, which is opposed to raising taxes, wont allow it. As its income dwindles, Milwaukee has lost 160 sworn police officers, or nearly 10% of its force, over the past few years. Without a doubt, the most effective defunder of the police in Wisconsin is the Republican-led legislature, Barrett, a Democrat, told MarketWatch. Ive been arguing for years to give me more resources. Theyre essentially trying to strangle local governments.  Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett says the Republican-led state legislature's restrictions on his budget have led to "defunding the police" in his city. Credit: City of Milwaukee  Its not unusual for a state legislature to set limits on what cities can and cant do. In the American system of federalism, cities are subsidiaries of the state, and plenty of states have restrictions similar to the one Mayor Barrett struggles with. But the issue, sometimes called pre-emption, is getting more attention as some statehouse moves are increasingly seen as being motivated by politics, or even a racial enmity. A 2018 National League of Cities report noted that state legislatures had used pre-emption more aggressively in recent years. Explanations for this increase include lobbying efforts by special interests, spatial sorting of political preferences between urban and rural areas, and single party dominance in most state governments, the report said. More to the point, the report noted, Recent pre-emption has pitted rural- and suburban-dominated state legislatures against cities with large populations of low wage earners and ethnic minorities.  Milwaukee is a majority-minority city, according to data from the Census Bureau, and about 25% of residents live below the poverty line. It votes decisively Democratic. The state legislature, in contrast, is mostly Republicans, and overwhelmingly white. Asked whether he thought the legislatures actions were racially motivated, Barrett said I hope not. I think its a winning political philosophy for the rest of the state to be pitted against Milwaukee and Madison, which also leans Democratic, but is much whiter. Pre-emption happens all the time, said Matt Fabian, a partner with Municipal Market Analytics. It becomes an issue when non-rational reasons drive decisions or where the state sees the city or its residents as an adversary. There can be a certain tribalism that hinges on race or how people vote.  Fabian, whose firm offers research for municipal bondholders, calls politically-motivated pre-emption an underappreciated risk in the muni bond market. In general when cities default its less about finances and more about what the state does to not help the city navigate a situation. The political factor, the relationship and potential antagonism between a city and its state, is widely under-investigated.  Municipal-bond defaults are vanishingly rare, but conflict between city and state is a common thread in many recent episodes of municipal distress, which have often occurred in places where the citys residents are primarily Black. Many public finance observers believe Detroit was hustled into its bankruptcy by a state government intent on imposing its will on the city  the same dynamic that caused years of financial distress and a public-health emergency in Flint. Two years before Detroit, what was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in American history took place in Jefferson County, Alabama. The state Supreme Court ruled a county occupational tax unconstitutional, pointlessly, in Fabians words, a step that ushered it into insolvency. Starving the beast  Napoleon Wallace and Activest, a research firm he co-founded, are working to price what it calls fiscal justice risk in the municipal market. Read: A new investing strategy aims to influence racial justice, from the ground up  When state legislatures limit the agency and capacity of local government to meet the demands of their residents, the result is generally a broken fiscal environment that harms communities of color and restricts their ability to operate in the best interest of their residents, Wallace said in an interview. He points to not just the high-profile fiscal blowups like Detroit and Flint, but also Ferguson and Louisville. And he doesnt agree that state-level policy has whats often called unintended consequences.  In a lot of areas, the role of state pre-emption and the ability to limit taxing at the local level is a very well-constructed apparatus that allows for gerrymandered state legislatures to impose their will on diverse cities, he said. When states limit cities policymaking abilities, you make it hard for progressive interests even when they have support among residents. You hamper their ability to finance progress.  The conservative notion of starving the beast  limiting taxation both for its own sake and so that governments dont have revenue to spend on programs  isnt new. But it gained a foothold on the state level in the past decade or so, perhaps most notably when supply-side economics crusader Arthur Laffer began advising Kansas Governor Sam Brownback. Kansas tax cuts enacted in 2012 blew a hole in the states budget, its economy and its bond rating, as the legislature cut funding to higher education, public schools, transportation and more. As Wallace notes, more often than not, stripping social safety nets has a disparate impact on communities of color. The fault lines of inequality exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have also thrown the pre-emption issue into starker relief. A 2020 report from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute notes that legislative moves are disproportionately harming the same communities that have been pre-empted from taking local action, limiting their ability to effectively combat the public health crisis.  The report, which focuses on the South, calls pre-emption embedded in a racist history. Pre-emptive laws are passed by majority-white legislatures and tend to create barriers to economic security in cities whose residents are majority people of color.  Throughout the pandemic, state lawmakers have pre-empted local measures, like masking policies or shutdown orders, that would help keep vulnerable people safe, even as people of color were more likely to be front-line workers or employed in jobs that didnt allow them to work from home, the report notes. A just-released report from the Pew Charitable Trusts looks at the limitations states impose on local taxation through the lens of the COVID economic downturn. The pandemic has created significant economic uncertainty for local leaders, with many experiencing large revenue shortfalls that make balancing budgets all the more difficult, the Pew report notes. When local governments struggle, states pay a price, toobecause of lost jobs, reduced tax collections, diminished services, and, in extreme cases, costly state bailouts. To minimize harm during economic downturns and support localities financial stability over the long term, states could review any policies that restrict local budget flexibility.  See: In one chart, how U.S. state and local revenues got thumped by the pandemic  and recovered  But Barrett calls it ironic that Wisconsin finished 2021 with a $2.6 billion surplus, and expects an even larger one next year, yet legislators cant find a way to share any of it with locals. And lawmakers dont seem any more inclined to review their restrictive policies than they were before the pandemic. They have a surplus and they wont throw us a bone, Barrett told MarketWatch. Theyve won. They strangled us.