Can farming actually stick to the Climate Change Commission's plan?
The Climate Change Commissions final advice to the Government may be too optimistic about the emissions reductions that farming can make, says industry body Beef + Lamb New Zealand. The commission has warned the country must move faster if it is to do its share internationally and get carbon neutral by 2050. In its final report, released on Wednesday, the commission recommends a plan to knock 5.4 million tonnes of emissions each year off New Zealands total for the next four years running, up from 1.5 million tonnes in draft advice in April. After feedback to the commission that it would be hard to cut agricultural emissions just by improving farming techniques, herd reduction estimates have been revised down from 15 per cent to 13.6 per cent by 2030. * Climate Change Report: Ban petrol car imports and new home gas connections    The country is expected to still produce about the same amount of milk and meat, but using fewer animals. Farm animals produce the greenhouse gas methane, which disappears from the atmosphere much faster than carbon dioxide, but is far more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Supplied Herd reduction estimates have been revised down from 15 per cent to 13.6 per cent by 2030. The methane burped out by ruminant livestock such as cows and sheep has been identified as a problem for New Zealand, with hopes pinned on selective breeding, methane inhibitors and even vaccines to help reduce the greenhouse gas. The commission expects low-methane sheep to help the country cut methane by 10 per cent by 2030. It expects farm herd numbers to drop by 8 per cent anyway, and recommends a further 6 per cent reduction. While horticulture would replace animals on some farms, others could change animal and feed management practices, and track carbon stored in trees, soils and wetlands. Emeritus Professor Frank Griffin, director of Otago Universitys Ag@Otago, said the reports assumptions were fair and reasonable, as well as ambitious. I think if you look at how the priorities have been morphed from pine trees and dairy cows into indigenous and mixed farming, it seemed like they were very responsive and had done a lot of analysis.  He had hoped for more discussion around alternative land use, and said the report was short-sighted in its emphasis on emissions rather than mitigation. Theres a genuine reason for us to look at biological farm systems because we have pushed modern tech and synthetic agrichemicals as far as you could possibly push them. Its not a sustainable model and the world is starting to tell us, Griffin said. A 15 per cent reduction in livestock was feasible, as good management meant farmers could get more productivity out of more animals, he said. But the commission was relying on technology to provide answers, when many solutions could be found in existing techniques such as regenerative farming. There is a fairly big expectation around new technologies, for say inhibitors for methane or vaccines, and thats a big call. We may find some metabolic inhibitors, we could grow those in a mixed pasture and feed the animals and that would be great. But to say youre going to vaccinate something which is a normal part of the animals flora is really a big, big ask, Griffin said. Sam McIvor, chief executive of Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ), said the commission had taken on board the organisations feedback, but the modelling might still be overly optimistic in terms of the future emissions reductions the sector could make. McIvor said B+LNZ was concerned about recommendations to cut biogenic methane emissions by 12 per cent on 2017 levels. This represents a 20 per cent increase in the level of ambition compared to the 2030 biogenic methane target in the Zero Carbon Act, which is to reduce methane emissions to 10 per cent below 2017 levels by 2030. The agriculture sector is consolidating its actions to reduce emissions, but this represents a shift in the goal posts on a target that is already too high, McIvor said.  Methane-emitting sectors are being asked to continue to do more, and faster, in the short-term to compensate for other sectors who have not acted  that is inequitable, especially considering that sheep and beef farmers have already achieved significant reductions.  DairyNZ chief executive Dr Tim Mackle said it was reassuring to see the final advice kept the methane reduction target of 10 per cent by 2030, but it remained an incredibly challenging target for dairy farmers. It is now up to the Government to deliver a credible emissions reduction plan for New Zealand  and the investment in tools and support required to achieve it.  For the first phase, until 2030, it was going to be largely about how dairy farmers could shift their systems to reduce greenhouse gas production, he said. Were not expecting necessarily to be rescued by any knockdown technology in that timeframe, its probably going to be available to a much greater degree in the next period, which is post-2030. So a lot of the levers that were available to reduce our emissions and make us more efficient, weve already pulled on those - genetics, feeding, all that kind of thing, so for some farmers its going to be very, very difficult without new technology.  Mackle was concerned agriculture may be asked to do more than its share if there was not urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the wider economy. Independent research shows our milk has the lowest carbon footprint in the world. On top of this, we have a credible plan in He Waka Eke Noa to manage, reduce and price agricultural emissions. We will be the only country in the world charging farmers to do this  elsewhere farmers are often paid to.