Will Philippines Buy F-16 Jets To Patrol South China Sea?
TAICHUNG, TAIWAN - 2020/07/16: F-16V fired at simulated targets during the 36th Han Kuang military ... [+] drills in Taichung city, testing the ability of the force to repel invasion in the face of Chinas rising threat. (Photo by Yin-Shan Chiang/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images  On June 24 the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency authorized sale of a dozen Lockheed-Martin F-16 Block 70/72 jet fighters and associated weapons to the Philippines totaling $2.43 billion. Such a sale could fulfill Manilas requirement long-standing plans to procure Multi-Role Fighters (MRF). However, Manila could still decide to instead procure purportedly cheaper Saab JAS-39 Gripen-C/D jets. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana remarked regarding the F-16 offer Its very expensive, so the PAF is evaluating others.  But for several reasons, the MRF procurement is the F-16s to lose. Rebuilding Manilas Fast Jet Capability  The potential arms deal, which awaits U.S. congressional authorization, is equivalent to slightly over half of the Philippines 2021 defense budget of 206 billion pesos ($4.23 billion). So the offer is no easy lift for Manila. Specifically, the DSCA approved sale of 10 single-seat F-16C and 2 two-seat F-16D Block 70/72 multi-role fighters (also sometimes called F-16Vs or Vipers) along with fifteen APG-83 radars and F100 or F110 turbofan engines to equip them, leaving three spares each. The package also includes twenty-four AIM-120C-7 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, laser-JDAM guided bomb kits, and Sniper or Litening targeting pods. Separately, the agency authorized sales of twenty-four AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missiles worth $43 million and twelve AGM-84L-1 Harpoon II air-launched anti-ship missiles ($120 million), of which an F-16 can carry two. This follows an April 2020 authorization for AH-64E Apache Guardian or AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters (totaling $1.5 billion and $450 million respectively) which has not attracted orders so far, as it exceeded the PAFs budget of $256 million for attack helicopters. The green dashes indicate China's claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea. CIA Map. In 2005 the Philippines retired its last remaining fast jets, aging F-5 Freedom Fighters. But in the last decade, Beijings aggressive actions in support of claims to sovereignty over islands across the South China Sea has led Manila to increase defense spending and regenerate its fighter capability. Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) ground crew inspect a pair of newly arrived FA-50 multirole light ... [+] fighter aircraft delivered to the Philippine Air Force shortly after landing at the Clark Air Base in Angeles City, Pampanga province, north of Manila on November 28, 2015. The Philippines received two new, South Korean-made FA-50 jets November 28, marking the country's return to super-sonic fighter jet status after almost a decade amid growing tensions with China. AFP PHOTO / TED ALJIBE / AFP / TED ALJIBE (Photo credit should read TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  Rather than immediately seeking high-performance fighters, the PAF instead procured a dozen KAI FA-50 Golden Eagle supersonic light fighters from Korea. Based in part on F-16 technology, the relatively inexpensive FA-50 could serve both as an advanced trainer and as an effective precision attack and air defense platform. Since entering service in 2016, the FA-50s have been used extensively in combat against insurgents with some success as well as controversy. This photo taken on June 26, 2017 shows smoke billowing from a building following an bombing run ... [+] against militant Islamist positions by a Philippine Air Force FA-50 fighter aircraft in Marawi on the southern island of Mindanao. A Philippine military jet accidentally killed two soldiers and injured 11 others as troops fought to retake a southern city from pro-Islamic State group militants, the military said on July 13, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / TED ALJIBE (Photo credit should read TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  The FA-50s were always intended as steppingstone to prepare the PAF to operate higher-performance fighters. But it was heavily criticized by Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte, who argued it was pointless investing in a small number of fighters given Chinas overwhelming military power. He nonetheless also advocated buying Russian or Chinese combat aircraft instead. However, Dutertes effort to improve relations with China yielded little, even as he attempted to cut long-term defense-assistance ties with the U.S. to the dismay of the Philippines military. In 2020 he canceled a 20-year-old Visiting Force Agreement when an allied politician was denied a U.S. travel visa. However, the cancelation itself has been repeatedly suspended. Viper versus Gripen  Meanwhile, the PAF has been pushing for funding the long-planned Multi-Role Fighters as it weighs the ubiquitous F-16 fighter against the Swedens well-regarded Saab JAS 39C/D MS20 fighter. Broadly, the Gripen and Falcon are closely matched and occupy similar niches as cost-efficient Mach 2-capable single-engine jets. SCHOENEFELD, GERMANY - MAY 21: A Saab JAS-39 Gripen jet fighter of the Czech air force flies at the ... [+] ILA 2014 Berlin Air Show on May 21, 2014 in Schoenefeld, Germany. The ILA 2014 is open from May 20-25. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Getty Images  However, the JAS 39 Gripen-C should not be confused with the more advanced Gripen-E model offered to Finland and India. The Gripen-C lacks equivalents to many of the advanced avionics in the F-16 Block 70/72 model, particularly its APG-83 AESA radar, which is more stealthy, agile and jam-resistant than a mechanically-scanned radar. To be fair, the MS20 subvariant of the Gripen-C is partially modernized to support new radar search modes, precision-guided bombs, Litening III targeting pods and secure datalinks. In terms of flight performance, Gripen-C has an inferior thrust-to-weight ratio (.97 compared to 1.09) compared to the F-16C but reportedly is capable of more energy-efficient sustained turns, and can operate from rougher airstrips, which could be useful for flexible basing across the Philippines. However, the conformal fuel tanks built into the Block 70/72 F-16 give it a greater combat radius than the Gripenand range will be vital for patrols over distant islands. Though the difference in unit price may not be hugethe Gripen-C may cost $60 million apiece, compared to an estimated $70-80 million for an F-16Janes assessed that the Gripen-C has two-third the cost per hour flown as the F-16, making it cheaper to operate. A KC-135 Stratotanker from the 909 Air Fueling Squadron of the 18th Wing of the US Air force, based ... [+] in Japan's Kadena, conducts aerial refueling for a F-16 Fighting Falcon from the US Seventh Air Force's 8th Fighter Wing, based in South Korea's Gunsan, during joint military drills between South Korea and the US over the East Sea, east of Seoul on July 26, 2010. The US and South Korea staged anti-submarine drills on the second day of a major naval exercise aimed at deterring North Korea despite its threats of nuclear retaliation. The two allies, who accuse the North of sending a submarine to torpedo a South Korean warship, have assembled about 20 ships including a 97,000-ton US aircraft carrier, 200 aircraft and 8,000 personnel. AFP PHOTO / LEE Jae-Won / POOL (Photo credit should read LEE JAE-WON/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  However, the F-16 retains a huge baked-in advantage: its the most numerous jet fighter in the world with abundant global logistical support, and it is built by the United States, which has a close relationship with the PAF and could easily provide training and spare parts. Furthermore, South Korea and Japan also fly F-16 variants, and both countries are heavily investing in improving the Philippines military capabilities. (The only Asian operator of the Gripen is Thailand, where the type admittedly has had some success in adversarial exercises with Chinese fighters.) And the PAFs Golden Eagle jets are partially derived from the F-16, meaning it should be easier for pilots to transition from the FA-50 to the F-16. TO GO WITH: Thailand China US diplomacy military, FOCUS by Jerome TAYLOR In this picture taken on ... [+] November 24, 2015, a Swedish-made Thai Gripen fighters flies during the combined excercise ''Falcon Strike 2015'' at the Wing 1 Korat air base in Korat. Thailand and China have been conducting their first ever joint air force drill, a symbol of the blossoming military and political ties between junta-run kingdom and its huge northern neighbour. AFP PHOTO / Nicolas ASFOURI / AFP / NICOLAS ASFOURI (Photo credit should read NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  Though these factors may make the F-16 more convenient, the Philippine Department of Defense is still signaling its dissatisfaction with the price tag, which some sources claim may force delays to MRF procurement. Furthermore, Pres. Duterte could conceivably have a wildcard effect because of his resentment of the United States and its paternalistic history with the Philippines. General Gilbert Gapay, chief of the Philippines armed services, stated in a press briefing that the MRF contract will be awarded prior to the end of Dutertes term late in 2022. If so, he will have to overcome skepticism that theres any point to investing in a few squadrons of fighters when China can mass hundreds combat aircraft over the South China Sea. However, improved PAF fast jet capability could provide denial of impunity simply by being able to intercept aircraft in the Philippines Air Defense Identification Zone, or overfly intruding ships in a non-wartime context. Air-launched Harpoon missiles would also give the Philippines much longer-range maritime strike capability, while the AIM-120 amounts to a far more effective beyond-visual-range air-to-air capability than the AIM-7F Sparrow missile on FA-50s. This photo taken on May 14, 2019, a Philippine coast guard ship (R) sails past a Chinese coastguard ... [+] ship during an joint search and rescue exercise between Philippine and US coastguards near Scarborough shoal, in the South China Sea. - Two Philippine coastguard ships, BRP Batangas and Kalanggaman and US coastguard cutter Bertholf participated in the exercise. (Photo by TED ALJIBE / AFP) (Photo credit should read TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images  Such capabilities, even in limited numbers, could affect the decision-making calculus of an adversary wary of starting a shooting war. A small fighter force could also serve as the nucleus for a larger one should it become desirable and affordable. In the end, however, it will be up to decision-makers in Manila to choose between the Swedish and American jetand whether the price tag for either is acceptable given the Philippines many pressing needs.