Could Lions venue change boost chances of victory?
The British & Irish Lions will play the first match of their South African tour, against the Sigma Lions, on the Highveld. Johannesburg is their home for now. However, as the tourists have flown in to set up their bubble in the Gauteng region, there has been more and more speculation about seeking alternative sites for future games as Covid-19 roars around the province. Earlier in the week it was suggested that officials were exploring the idea of staging the majority of matches, including all three Tests, in Cape Town. The South African Rugby Union, it is understood, would rather maintain the existing schedule. As it stands, the Lions are set to play two tour matches in Johannesburg, one in Pretoria, two in Cape Town, before playing the first Test in the same venue, then heading back to Joburg for the remaining two Tests. RW Verdict  Play in Joburg or Pretoria and youve got to contend with the altitude, writes features editor Alan Dymock. In a recent issue of our mag, former Lions head of performance Adam Beard (now of the Chicago Cubs) broke down what altitude can do to your physical output. As you travel up and increase elevation, the barometric pressure decreases, making it harder for the body to utilise the available oxygen, he explained. This is especially true when high fitness demands are required in sports such as rugby. Fatigue and the rate of fatigue is increased at altitude and this is shown within players who are not acclimatised to playing in this lower-oxygen environment. Also, if you also take into consideration the effects of the ball traveling further and at greater speeds due to less air resistance at altitude, then a very hard environment  Test rugby  just got harder.  The Lions have been preparing for this, using altitude chambers and masks and certain training methods. Then of course there is the other edges you can get, away from the physical. Johannesburg is seen by many as the spiritual home of the Boks. And if you look at the above graphic from the brilliant Russ Petty, you will see that in all of the venues South Africa have played in at home since the Lions tours of 1997 and 2009, Joburg stands out as their natural home and somewhere they thrive. Since 2010 they have had a 64% win rate in Joburg. Since 1998 its 74%. Rates might be better elsewhere with fewer Tests played, but it is about the desire to return. If you look at the games that have been played from 2010 onwards too, it stands out that the Springboks have lost the last three on the spin in Cape Town, while they have won their last four in Johannesburg. Some of those matches across the two venues were part of the same series, sure, and you have to take into account how things can change at the end of a series, but the fact remains that they want to keep the good times rolling in Joburg. In 2021, this is a tour without a red fans pouring over the grounds of South Africa  the Lions go without a roaring support in any stands. With that disadvantage, the team will take any leverage they can find, so if the chance came to move away from the hosts preferred venue, it might not be the difference-maker but it is worth finding out if it helps swing things back in the Lions favour, even slightly. You can download the digital edition of Rugby World straight to your tablet or subscribe to the print edition to get the magazine delivered to your door. Follow Rugby World on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.