Why are Covid-19 variants more dangerous than the original strain?
New Sars-CoV-2 variants pose a serious threat to people unvaccinated against Covid-19, UAE authorities have said. Dr Farida Al Hosani, spokeswoman for the state health sector, said those who have not been inoculated are at high risk of catching the virus as the new strains are more lethal and contagious than the original. The National explains. Many assumed it would. But that view is wrong, according to experts. Whilst some scientists may believe [it will become less severe], those who study the evolution of virulence (disease severity) generally dont, tweeted Katrina Lythgoe from the UK's University of Oxford. To say that viruses will inevitably evolve to be less severe, particularly those in a novel host like Sars-CoV-2, is simplistic at best. To say that viruses will inevitably evolve to be less severe, particularly those in a novel host like Sars-CoV-2, is simplistic at best Katrina Lythgoe  At worst, it could dangerously blinker our thinking on how best to control the virus in the short-to-medium term.  Instead, viruses generally evolve to become more fit, which means they become more transmissible, she said. And that is exactly what we are seeing with Sars-CoV-2. The four most concerning variants are Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. These were previously known as the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and the Indian variant. Delta, the variant first detected in India, is up to 60 per cent more transmissible than the one first reported in the UK, which is again more contagious than the virus that emerged in China's Wuhan. While the original strain had an R0 of 2.5, meaning every person who caught it was likely to pass it on to two and a half people in the absence of safety measures, for the Delta variant it is believed to be as high as eight, according to Imperial College London. And as infections increase, more people have to be taken to the hospital, irrespective of the severity of the variants. A recent model by Imperial College London suggests the delta variant could lead to a significant third wave in the UK, similar to winter last year. Delta appears to be. According to a recent Scottish study, it doubles the risk of patients needing hospital treatment compared to Alpha, which first emerged in the UK. Doctors have seen an increase in the number of strokes, gangrene cases and necrosis  the death of body tissue  associated with the variant. There were also reports of hearing loss and joint pain among patients affected during Indias second wave, in addition to a surge in cases of a deadly fungal infection called mucormycosis, also known as the black fungus. A traveller is tested at the Grasmere Toll Plaza in Lenasia, South Africa. Reuters City of Tshwane's Special Infection Unit paramedics and a doctor load a man showing symptoms of Covid-19 into an isolation chamber in the north of Pretoria, South Africa. AFP A normally busy interchange on the M2 east highway is seen devoid of vehicles during national lockdown in South Africa. EPA A volunteer sprays disinfectant during a deep cleaning operation inside the Villa Liza Clinic, in Ekurhuleni, South Africa. AFP A woman wearing a mask crosses a waterlogged street after rainfall in Thokoza, east of Johannesburg, South Africa. AP Photo Buildings are seen closed and empty of people in Sandton, South Africa. EPA A City of Tshwane's Special Infection Unit paramedic closes the door of an ambulance in the north of Pretoria, South Africa. AFP A health worker wears protective clothing as she prepares to test travellers at the Grasmere Toll Plaza, in Lenasia, South Africa. Reuters An empty garage with no vehicles or staff during lockdown in South Africa. No one knows. Dr Aris Katzourakis, an expert in viral evolution at the University of Oxford, told the BBC it would be foolish to guess how transmissible future strains could get. "There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Wendy Barclay, a virologist from Imperial College London. "Measles is between 14 and 30 [the RO] depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out." Ms Lythgoe of Oxford University said the virus has no reason to become less virulent in the short term as it is new to people and there are still many potential hosts. Prior immunity could make infections less severe. And if the virus is able to mutate to become more benign while retaining its transmissibility, it could evolve to become weaker, she said. In the distant future, the human population itself could evolve to better tolerate infection, tweeted Ms Lythgoe. But there are a huge number of uncertainties here  and we havent even touched on the conflict between within-host and between-host evolution."