Should the Spurs sign John Collins to a max contract?
San Antonio has money to burn, and if their plan is to double down on the youth movement, wooing the versatile 23-year-old power forward is the best way to spend it. SAN ANTONIO  The San Antonio Spurs will have an abundance of cap space this summer, and if their plan is to double down on the youth movement, wooing John Collins is the best way to spend that money. The 23-year-old power forward averaged 17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game this season for the Atlanta Hawks, hitting 40% on a good volume of three-point shots and doing considerable damage as a high-flying finisher at the rim. He reportedly turned down an extension in the neighborhood of 4 years, $90 million in hopes of earning a max contract--or close to it--as a restricted free agent. Collins game speaks for itself and is exactly what the Spurs need, but some fans in San Antonio dont believe that giving him a sizable contract would be a good move. That argument boils down to a few main points:  Collins is a complementary role player, not a primary shot creator  He benefits from playing with Trae Young  He has some rough edges on defense  A player like that is not worth a tremendous contract  These statements are all mostly true, and they might be reason enough for other teams to steer clear this summer. The Spurs, however, are not one of those teams. Each of those knocks on Collins should matter less in San Antonio. Lets take a look at each point to see why. Hes a complementary role player  Yeah, but hes the exact role player this Spurs team needs. Its plain to see what John Collins is and what he isnt, at least not yet. Calling him a complementary player is accurate, seeing as a coach would never clear out a side of the floor to let the lanky big man isolate and create his own shot off the dribble. Theres some post-up and face-up potential, but its still mostly potential. Teams looking for that guy should look elsewhere because thats not what he does. The Spurs, however, arent wanting for playmaking. Dejounte Murray took a leap last year, Derrick White operated at a high level with the ball in his hands when healthy, Lonnie Walker IV looked at his best with more opportunity to run the offense, and Keldon Johnson showed impressive shot creation flashes later in the season. If DeMar DeRozan isnt on the team next year, the idea will be to give additional primary opportunities to those young guys and see how they grow. San Antonio shot a high volume of mid-range attempts and a low volume and percentage from three, a clear weakness they need to address. They also used Keldon Johnson as an undersized power forward, and the need for big-man depth became clear toward the end of the season. Ideally, hes a versatile big man who can stretch the floor, grab boards, run in transition, defend multiple positions, and work off-ball to make himself a passing target in dirty areas. In other words: John Collins. Think about the role that the Spurs asked LaMarcus Aldridge to play in his final year in San Antonio. His signature post-up essentially evaporated from the playbook, replaced with pick-and-pop sets to create space for drivers like Murray and DeMar DeRozan. The NBA is no longer throwing it to big guys on the block and letting them cook, unless their name is Jokic or Embiid. Collins is the embodiment of the modern four in all its floor-spacing, lob-catching, fast-twitching glory. As an impressive leaper off one or two feet, he was near the top ten in made dunks this year. According to the NBAs stats pages, he scored 1.22 points per possession when rolling in pick-and-roll, fourth best out of players who made at least one such basket per game. On cuts he was even better, scoring 1.37 ppp, which put him sixth among guys with at least two cutting attempts per game. If defenses dont prevent him from reaching the basket, his main goal is to rip the rim from the backboard. If they leave him open at the arc, he punishes them just as well. 40% from deep works out to 1.20 ppp, near the same efficiency he has as a roll man, which, as weve already pointed out, is quite good. 40% would have led the Spurs in accuracy last season, and he wouldve ranked fifth on the team in terms of makes and attempts. His ability to reliably take and make that shot while also being able to dunk all over somebody creates a question for the defense if he sets a screen, and there isnt a very good answer. If he pops, the big man could follow him to the arc, but then a solid slasher would have an open lane and some space off the pick. If he cuts off the lane, Collins is now open for three. If he commits to the driver too much, that driver is lofting it over him and Collins is soaring from the rafters to cram it through the cramhole behind him. Everything that makes him lethal in halfcourt offense gets amplified in transition. He runs the floor well and catches football-pass lobs, and if someone else is taking it to the rack he can provide space. His 1.57 ppp in transition were sixth-most for players with at least one transition attempt per game. He benefits from Trae Young, though  Sure, but hed play well with this Spurs team too  Collins detractors are quick to point out that he gets a ton of those looks on dimes from Trae Young, a spectacular passer with deep range few players can rival. His numbers went way up when Trae got there, they might say, a true but misleading statement. The only season Collins played without Young was his rookie year, when he averaged just 24 minutes per game and barely dabbled in the three-point shot that makes him so deadly. Collins went from averaging 10.5 points per game as a rookie to 19.5 points per game his second year, and that was when he was still hitting just 35% from deep. The next year he was at 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds per game while shooting 40% from three. Any complimentary player would benefit from playing with a teammate like Trae Young, that much is sure. But Trae Young isnt responsible for Collins growth and improvement as a player. The two-man game they play is a two-way street, and Young would probably tell you that a teammate like Collins makes the game easier for him, too. He would make it easier for the Spurs young core of playmakers as well. Young isnt the only player that Collins compliments well. His frontcourt pairing with the 71 Clint Capela shows how he could fit next to Jakob Poeltl, who has a similar role. Collins brings the perimeter big man game on both ends that Poeltl lacks as a 71 rim protector and screen setter who does the dirty work but wont shoot outside of 7 feet. If Poeltl got in foul trouble, or if an opposing rim protector was locking things down too well inside, Collins could play as a small-ball center who could force the opposing big to defend him 24 feet from the basket or give up a good shot. There are a number of ways for the frontcourt pair of Poeltl and Collins to open up opportunities for each other and everyone else. They can set double screens for drivers with Collins popping and Poeltl rolling to really give the defense a headache. Poeltl could stay in the dunker spot when Collins sets screens up top, ready to finish a lob or putback. Switch them, and Collins can pop to the corner for open looks as Poeltl rolls. Whichever big sets the screen, the other could come up from the baseline in Spain pick and roll and set one more. Heres Collins calling for that play in a recent playoff game:  John Collins calls for Spain pick and roll, creates separation on the screen, crams home the lob    Hes a smart dudepic.twitter.com/ULq2dRHKSL  Tom Petrini (@RealTomPetrini) June 6, 2021  The more moving parts, the harder it is for the defense to stay solid, and Collins is the kind of moving part that could cause serious damage if you look away from him for even one moment. A heavy diet of screens and dangerous cuts from them, on or off the ball, weak side or strong side, would do wonders for shot creation and ball movement. He wouldnt have an individual playmaker on the same level as Young. Instead, hed have a stable of young guards who can run the offense and find him in dirty spots. Those guys have never played with a floor-spacing lob threat as good as Collins, and that could help unlock more playmaking. Collins still has room to grow, but hes already grown into one of the best off-ball modern fours in the NBA. Age-wise, he fits between Lonnie Walker IV and Dejounte Murray. Basketball-wise, he fits perfectly with those guys and every other young Spur who will be under contract next year and for years to come. San Antonios roster moves over the last year, from re-signing Poeltl and extending Derrick White to letting LaMarcus Aldridge go, indicates that theyre betting long-term on the growth of this group. Nope. Without a doubt, he fits the bill. You wouldnt sautee some garlic and onions to eat by itself, but add that to any savory dish and it takes it to another level. And like onions, Collins has layers to his game. But his defense isnt quite there yet  Sure, but look at the strides hes making on that end in the playoffs. Defensively, Collins thin build isnt ideal for banging with a bigger center in the post. That responsibility would mainly fall to Poeltl, who contested more shots inside six feet last season than anyone not named Gobert. While Poeltls footspeed is surprisingly quick for someone his size, Collins is quicker. He can use his length on the weak side as a rim protector and has the speed to recover to a shooter in the corner. His rebounds were down a bit this year from 10 per game the previous season, but he still finished defensive possessions with 5.5 defensive boards per game and gave his team an average of two extra chances on the offensive glass. The Spurs were below average in that department last season, and he could provide a necessary boost there. The truly enticing part of Collins defensive game is his versatility. His length and quickness allow him to switch onto guards and check multiple positions. Picture adding his 69 frame and 611 wingspan to the collection of long arms and active hands that the Spurs have built in recent years. This might be the season that they decide to switch more, and hed fit nicely with that style. As hes proving in the playoffs, he can also lock in and guard his man, even if hes one of the other teams most important players. According to the NBAs matchup tracking data, Collins has primarily guarded Ben Simmons and Julius Randle in the first and second rounds. Simmons was limited to four points in Game 2 and has scored just 16 of his 58 points and 12 of his 42 assists this series on the guy guarding him most of the time. While his offensive game has clear limitations, Collins is doing a good job of helping hold the All-Star below his scoring average. Randle had an even rougher go of it, getting effectively shut down after an All-NBA season. Collins guarded him for 16 minutes, allowing him to shoot just 6-25 with 2 turnovers and 6 assists. The team defense held him to six points below his season scoring average of 24 per game, and Collins was central to that. Collins has looked focused and intense on defense this postseason but hasnt been perfect. Some point to focus and anticipation issues that lead to foul trouble, as he dealt with in Game 2 against the Knicks. He played under 15 minutes because of it, scoring 0 points in the only game Atlanta lost in that series. He didnt foul out of any games this season, but he picked up five fouls nine times and four 17 times. Still, he reached double-digit scoring in all but two of those games and played over 25 minutes in all but four. At just 23, theres still plenty of time for him to improve as a team defender. Having said that, his current floor already seems quite high. Okay hes good, but a max contract would be an overpay  Maybe, but its the cheapest max deal possible and the Spurs have so much cap space it doesnt matter. Many Spurs fans were ready to throw the bag at him months ago. Some will never be sold on him as a player, even though the Spurs desperately need someone with his size, skills, and even his weakness in playing better without the ball. The more miserly basketball minds, however, like him as a player but balk at the Max price tag for anyone other than a dominant superstar. Listen, I appreciate the frugality and the long-term caution, especially when it comes to a large expenditure, I do. I still think about it when guac is extra even though its been a while since I could overdraft my account by adding some. But a max-money deal for Collins isnt nearly as expensive as it sounds, and the Spurs have more money than you might think. Collins has played under six years in the NBA, so the most he could earn on a max deal with a new team is 25% of the cap, plus a 5% raise each year. You can get 30% for between seven and nine years in the league, and veterans of 10+ years can earn a max of 35%. Going off a cap projection of $112 million next year, Collins would make 28 million in his first season and $120.7 million over the four-year deal. I certainly cant foot the bill, but luckily thats not my department. Its also over $100 million less than the value of a 5-year supermax for a veteran player. As far as max deals go, Collins would be the cheapest possible. Hell be a restricted free agent, meaning that any offer he gets, Atlanta can choose to pay him the same amount and bring him back. There was some tension reported earlier in the season, but a coaching and style change has led to team success. Hes been a solid contributor, and after his huge Game 5 the team is a win away from upsetting the Sixers en route to the Eastern Conference Finals. Each good game makes it seem likelier that the Hawks would want to bring Collins back. If the Hawks give Collins a max deal, it would be more expensive because hed stay put, earning an 8% annual raise as opposed to 5%. Hed also be able to sign for five years instead of four, which means the Hawks would be looking at a 5-year commitment worth closer to $160 million. The Hawks have long-term money tied up with Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. In fact, that trio plus Trae Young will make more than the entire Spurs team under contract for next year. They also have four other guys on rookie deals making $4 million or more. This means that unless they can shed salary, theyd need to go into the luxury tax to offer Collins a max deal, or even to match San Antonios. Theyre definitely going to have to give Trae Young the max next year, when the Hawks still have more cap holds right now than the Spurs do this season. Even though the on-court fit has been great, bringing Collins back doesnt seem like the most fiscally responsible choice for Atlanta. The Spurs, on the other hand, are among the only teams who can afford to make Collins an offer that Atlanta would likely refuse to match. The Knicks have cap space, and a million power forwards. The Mavericks, Raptors, Cavaliers and Hornets have less money, and those dont seem like likely landing spots. No other teams will have enough to max him, and the Spurs will have about $52 million to play with. That means they could sign Collins to the baby max and have plenty of cash to spare. Unless a sign-and-trade comes into play San Antonio and Atlanta seem like the two most significant options, and it might make more sense for the Spurs to pull the trigger. At a max deal, hed make about as much as the two guys who would throw the majority of his lobs combined in Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, who are signed for three and four years, respectively. Jakob Poeltl signed a team-friendly deal worth about $9 million per year last summer. Lonnie Walker IV, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luka Samanic, Drew Eubanks, and Tre Jones are the only other players on the books, all on cheap deals. Combine the salaries of all seven, and it would be less than Collins max deal. Lonnie could sign an extension this year, and Keldon and Luka the year after that, but they should be fairly affordable. Teams can go over the cap to re-sign their own guys as well. In the immediate future, the Spurs could give Collins 25% of the cap, add that to all of their other salary obligations, and still have about 23% of the cap to spend. They could even spend more if they want to go into the luxury tax, even bring back DeRozan if that's what they want to do, but that seems unlikely. San Antonio isnt used to having this sort of financial flexibility, but this is one of the perks of having the youngest roster here in some time. They shouldnt necessarily spend money like a tech billionaire building rocket ships simply because rocket ships are cool, but they shouldnt act broke either. They should use that money to address their biggest need, and Collins seems to fit perfectly. He doesnt have to be the Spurs best player for his max deal to be the best thing San Antonio could spend the money on. But there are better ways to spend the money  I'm open to suggestions, but I doubt it. Reader, if you remain unconvinced despite the 3,000 words above, I suppose theres nothing I could say to change your mind. I will, however, ask you to play the role of Spurs GM Brian Wright. The pros and cons of that decision can be a dissertation on its own. Hes a ball-dominant shot-creator who created well for himself and teammates, but doubling down on him would mean fewer primary creation opportunities for the young core, and it wouldnt particularly help the team with defense, three-point shooting, or big-man depth. Maybe you use the cap space to accommodate a player brought in through potentially signing and trading DeRozan. Finally, some argue that theyd rather spend the money on a top-tier free agent, the kind of iso scoring star truly worthy of the max in their eyes. Kawhi Leonard isnt walking back through that door. After him, Collins might be the best player available this summer. You can look ahead to 2022, which certainly has more marquee names, but Im not holding my breath while waiting for a guy like James Harden to come here. Plus, Collins reasonable max number wouldnt prevent San Antonio from spending again next year. The Spurs dont build contenders by acquiring big-time free agents, for reasons that should be fairly obvious. They draft and develop talent, build a cohesive unit, and do their best to get the most out of the players who want to be here. Its not outside the realm of possibility that one or more of the young core theyve been building since their last title in 2014 can one day turn into a star in this league, and San Antonio seems to be counting on it. If the plan next year is to see who makes that leap, Collins is the ideal complementary weapon to pair with all of them.