What will be the political future of Afghanistan?
The day set for the withdrawal of all troops is significant. Exactly 20 years ago, on this day in 2001, the world trade centre was demolished. Consequently, the US-led forces launched an operation in Afghanistan to avenge the Al Qaeda terrorist attack on the Twin Towers. The then-ruling Taliban government in Afghanistan was overthrown. After two long decades of bloodshed, the United States is finally withdrawing from the country. The withdrawal process is said to be more than half complete. In the meantime, multidimensional analysis has begun among analysts surrounding the deal. But beyond all analysis, the key question is whether the deal will actually bring peace to Afghanistan. The United States, which drove out the Taliban in 2001, is now putting it back in the name of peace. Because, in this long war that has been going on for almost two decades, America has gained nothing. On the contrary, the country had to pay a high price for its military and security operations in Afghanistan. That price had to be paid with blood, loss of life and money. According to United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2,300 US troops have died in Afghanistan since 2009. 20,660 injuries were reported. Simultaneously, 450 British troops were killed. Hundreds of troops from other NATO countries have lost their lives in the two-decade-long war. However, the Afghans have suffered many more casualties in this bloody war of two decades. More than 60,000 members of the Afghan security forces have been killed. The death toll among Afghan civilians has doubled. There have been huge economic losses in the United States. So far, the war in Afghanistan has cost US taxpayers about 1 trillion US dollars. But the Americans received nothing in return for the loss and the money spent. After the new US President Biden took power, he decided that he no longer wanted to think about Afghanistan. In other words, the United States is determined to end this war by all means. The violent attacks in Afghanistan have intensified since the Taliban-US accord in February 2020. The decision to withdraw US troops left the Afghan government vulnerable to the Taliban. If the US troops return to the country in September this year, the Afghan government will fall. It may not bring any peace in the long run. Because in the last few years, the Taliban have continued to increase their power and attacks. According to security analysts, the withdrawal of foreign troops means the Taliban will become stronger in the country. The Taliban have recently stepped up attacks in Afghanistan in the wake of the ongoing troop withdrawal. In the last few days, the armed group has occupied about 100 district centres. But they are not attacking the US or any international forces while leaving Afghanistan. The international community fears that if the troubles persist, the country will suddenly plunge into civil war. That will be the matter of worry for the world. General Austin S Miller, commander-in-chief of the US operation in Afghanistan, expressed concern that Afghanistan is heading towards chaos and multilateral civil war. And if India had maintained its influence in the country, no significant progress would have been possible due to Delhi's opposition to the project. In addition, the US military presence at the doorstep of China is always a cause for concern for Beijing. While China is interested in Afghanistan because of Russia's territorial dominance and trade, India has a vested interest in Afghanistan's geopolitics over the conflict with Pakistan and the Kashmir crisis. India has invested more than 200 crores dollar in infrastructure development in Afghanistan. The implementation of the US-Taliban agreement means the loss of this investment in India. The current agreement would benefit the Taliban as such. It will also help Pakistan create a favourable situation in regional politics. Pakistan wants a Taliban government backed in Kabul to consolidate its sphere of influence. By contrast, India wants Afghanistan to be free from Pakistani influence. However, it is not the wish of either India or Iran to establish a Taliban-controlled Islamic government in Afghanistan. This is because in the Shia-dominated provinces along the Iran-Afghan border in southwestern Afghanistan, various anti-Taliban Iranian-backed organizations are active. Similarly, the northern provinces of Afghanistan are inhabited by Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. They will not easily accept the Taliban forces dominated by the Pashtun population. So the threat of long-term unrest cannot be ruled out. The United States wants the Afghan government and the Taliban to reach an acceptable agreement in order to pave the way for peace. Achieving peace in Afghanistan requires a credible agreement between the United States and NATO, as well as an acceptable agreement between the Afghan government and other political parties in the future governance process. In addition, the role of the countries concerned will also be highly influential. It remains to be seen how sincerely all groups resolve these issues in the name of peace. Only time will tell where the political equation of Afghanistan will end up after so many lives, blood, money and destruction of infrastructure. The writer is a columnist, debater and student, Department of History, University of Chittagong        Afghanistan has become a battlegound for almost 20 years. The Afghan war is the longest war in the history of the United States. The United States is finally ending the nearly two-decade-long Afghan war. According to a peace deal reached between the United States and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, in February last year, President Biden has announced that all US troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by September 11 this year. After the announcement, NATO also said that they will withdraw all the troops of the alliance within this period.The day set for the withdrawal of all troops is significant. Exactly 20 years ago, on this day in 2001, the world trade centre was demolished. Consequently, the US-led forces launched an operation in Afghanistan to avenge the Al Qaeda terrorist attack on the Twin Towers. The then-ruling Taliban government in Afghanistan was overthrown.After two long decades of bloodshed, the United States is finally withdrawing from the country. The withdrawal process is said to be more than half complete. In the meantime, multidimensional analysis has begun among analysts surrounding the deal. But beyond all analysis, the key question is whether the deal will actually bring peace to Afghanistan.The United States, which drove out the Taliban in 2001, is now putting it back in the name of peace. Because, in this long war that has been going on for almost two decades, America has gained nothing. On the contrary, the country had to pay a high price for its military and security operations in Afghanistan. That price had to be paid with blood, loss of life and money.According to United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2,300 US troops have died in Afghanistan since 2009. 20,660 injuries were reported. Simultaneously, 450 British troops were killed. Hundreds of troops from other NATO countries have lost their lives in the two-decade-long war. However, the Afghans have suffered many more casualties in this bloody war of two decades. More than 60,000 members of the Afghan security forces have been killed.The death toll among Afghan civilians has doubled. There have been huge economic losses in the United States. So far, the war in Afghanistan has cost US taxpayers about 1 trillion US dollars. But the Americans received nothing in return for the loss and the money spent. After the new US President Biden took power, he decided that he no longer wanted to think about Afghanistan. In other words, the United States is determined to end this war by all means.The violent attacks in Afghanistan have intensified since the Taliban-US accord in February 2020. The decision to withdraw US troops left the Afghan government vulnerable to the Taliban. If the US troops return to the country in September this year, the Afghan government will fall. It may not bring any peace in the long run.Because in the last few years, the Taliban have continued to increase their power and attacks. According to security analysts, the withdrawal of foreign troops means the Taliban will become stronger in the country. The Taliban have recently stepped up attacks in Afghanistan in the wake of the ongoing troop withdrawal. In the last few days, the armed group has occupied about 100 district centres. But they are not attacking the US or any international forces while leaving Afghanistan.The international community fears that if the troubles persist, the country will suddenly plunge into civil war. That will be the matter of worry for the world. General Austin S Miller, commander-in-chief of the US operation in Afghanistan, expressed concern that Afghanistan is heading towards chaos and multilateral civil war.Although the Taliban and the United States are directly involved in the Afghan war, others are indirectly involved. The interests of Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and India as major powers, depends on Afghanistan;s internal situation. One of China's major interests in Afghanistan is to build Belt and Road Initiative (or BRI, China's huge transport corridor project) and make it work. This is not possible without peace in Afghanistan.And if India had maintained its influence in the country, no significant progress would have been possible due to Delhi's opposition to the project. In addition, the US military presence at the doorstep of China is always a cause for concern for Beijing. While China is interested in Afghanistan because of Russia's territorial dominance and trade, India has a vested interest in Afghanistan's geopolitics over the conflict with Pakistan and the Kashmir crisis.India has invested more than 200 crores dollar in infrastructure development in Afghanistan. The implementation of the US-Taliban agreement means the loss of this investment in India. The current agreement would benefit the Taliban as such. It will also help Pakistan create a favourable situation in regional politics. Pakistan wants a Taliban government backed in Kabul to consolidate its sphere of influence. By contrast, India wants Afghanistan to be free from Pakistani influence.However, it is not the wish of either India or Iran to establish a Taliban-controlled Islamic government in Afghanistan. This is because in the Shia-dominated provinces along the Iran-Afghan border in southwestern Afghanistan, various anti-Taliban Iranian-backed organizations are active. Similarly, the northern provinces of Afghanistan are inhabited by Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. They will not easily accept the Taliban forces dominated by the Pashtun population. So the threat of long-term unrest cannot be ruled out.The United States wants the Afghan government and the Taliban to reach an acceptable agreement in order to pave the way for peace. Achieving peace in Afghanistan requires a credible agreement between the United States and NATO, as well as an acceptable agreement between the Afghan government and other political parties in the future governance process. In addition, the role of the countries concerned will also be highly influential. It remains to be seen how sincerely all groups resolve these issues in the name of peace. Only time will tell where the political equation of Afghanistan will end up after so many lives, blood, money and destruction of infrastructure.The writer is a columnist, debater and student, Department of History, University of Chittagong