Would George Orwell Blush by The New Man in Iran?
Irans presidential election on June 18 was the most farcical in the history of the Islamic regime, even more so than the 2009 election, often called an electoral coup. It was less an election than a chronicle of a death foretold, the death of what little remained of the constitutions republican principles. But, in addition to being the most farcical, the election may be the Islamic Republics most consequential. The winner, Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, is credibly accused of crimes against humanity for his role in killing some 4,000 dissidents three decades ago. Amnesty International has already called for him to be investigated for these crimes. Asked about the accusation, the new president-elect replied in a way that would have made even George Orwell blush, insisting that he should be praised for his defence of human rights in those murders. Heartiest Congratulations to Our beloved leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei(H), Iranian Nation,and to all the Muslim for the successful completion of general election,& Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi elected as new President of #Iran  We pray for Allah tobe strength & Guider. pic.twitter.com/57BlrIc1AO  Usman El-bichiyyi (@elbichiyyi) June 19, 2021  Never has such a motley crew been chosen to act as a foil for its favored candidate. The regime mobilised all of its forces to ensure a big turnout for Raisi, who until the election was Irans chief justice. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decreed voting a religious duty, and casting a blank ballot a sin, while his clerical allies condemned advocates of a boycott as heretics. But even according to the official results, 51 per cent of eligible voters did not vote and of those who did, more than four million cast a blank ballot. There are already allegations that the announced numbers were doctored and a powerful movement to boycott the election has already declared the outcome a virtual referendum against the status quo. Despite the constitutions republican elements, real power has always been in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, virtually all elections, except those in the first couple of years  were to varying degrees engineered. The Islamic Republic has always been closer to a traditional Islamic state than a modern republic. But after Raisis election, it will be a stretch to call Iran even a competitive authoritarian regime where factions compete in managed elections to divide power. The election of Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi as Iran's next president all but guarantees heightened domestic turmoil in the coming years. A prudent and effective US strategy toward Iran must keep this reality front and center, says @Stanford's Abbas Milani. https://t.co/iU2FagQ8PI  Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) June 22, 2021  This election was not just about the presidency, but also about the selection of the next Supreme Leader. Khamenei is 82, and has long been battling prostate cancer. Some believe the plan is to anoint Khameneis son, Mojtaba, as the next supreme leader, making the post hereditary (and moving Iran closer to becoming a caliphate). In this scenario, Raisi is to be the pliant president who enables Mojtabas rise. But others think that Raisi himself is Khameneis designated successor. Some believe the plan is to anoint #Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as the next Supreme Leader, making the post hereditary (& moving #Iran closer to becoming a caliphate). In this scenario, Raisi is to be the pliant pres. who enables Mojtaba's rise. @MilaniAbbashttps://t.co/vexahoEPID    (@HezbollahWatch) June 24, 2021  Despite this important ambiguity, two things seem clear. First, both candidates are bad news for Iran and the region. Mojtaba is a shadowy figure who for many years has been his fathers de facto chief of staff, and, more important, has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) brutal intelligence forces. And Raisis bloody record in the judiciary speaks for itself. Second, the IRGC  a political, economic, cultural, military, and intelligence juggernaut  will be calling the shots in selecting Khameneis successor. More broadly, it is also clear that the regime, enfeebled by structural challenges, including a drought, COVID-19, a collapsing financial system, a determined womens movement demanding an end to gender apartheid and rising discontent among young people, has been flexing its muscles at home and abroad. Its response to these challenges has been continued brutality against its citizens, abduction of dual nationals to use as bargaining chips, a rapid increase in uranium enrichment, and more attacks on US forces in Iraq by regime proxies. Raisi will be in office when and if the ongoing negotiations with the United States resurrect some version of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. A revived JCPOA would bring an end to some of the sanctions re-imposed by former US President Donald Trump when he withdrew from the deal in 2018. While the Trump administrations policy of maximum pressure hurt ordinary Iranians, it also weakened the regime. If human rights are not a crucial part of any new deal with Iran, then the gains from an end to sanctions will strengthen the regimes most strident elements. For the US, negotiating with a roguish regime is prudent policy, but normalising such regimes is to the detriment of Americas long-term interests. 1/2 #IslamicRepublicVirus Supreme Garbage,Ali Khamenei and his family have been residing thie cottage in Latyan Dam near Karaj city, Iran since they left Kish Island. https://t.co/t5bEGYn59E  Yasir& Mojtaba Khamenei seized the most cultivated farmlands in Miankola, North Iran. pic.twitter.com/SAQKInPgCz  Shabnam  John14:6 (@ShabnamHamseda) April 4, 2020  The debate about Iran in the US has often devolved into a false binary between advocates of regime change and appeasers. In conducting its negotiations, President Joe Bidens administration must avoid both sides. But while Iran has rightly criticised the US for unilaterally renouncing a binding agreement, the US should demand that Khamenei take direct responsibility for negotiating with the US. According to both Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, Khamenei was involved in every step of the JCPOA negotiations, but remained in the shadows, and even allowed his minions to attack the deal long before Trump walked away from it. If the supreme killer Ali Khamenei dies, his son Mojtaba Khamenei is worse than him. There's no hope in any individual who somehow is related to the Islamic Republic in #Iran; Reformists or Principlists, there's no difference. #IranRegimeChange https://t.co/RO77AdwdB2    (@Sheina__) December 5, 2020  The US neither can nor should accept the responsibility of changing Irans regime. Only the people of Iran can and should make that decision. But any US negotiations with the Islamic Republic must recognise that Americas long-term interests, and those of the people of Iran, can be realised only with a modern democracy, not an Islamic caliphate. The countrys grave structural challenges can be solved only by a national concordance that includes all strata of Iranian society, particularly women, as well as the Iranian diaspora. The election of Raisi indicates that Khamenei and his allies are moving in the exact opposite direction, which all but guarantees domestic turmoil in the coming months and years. A prudent and effective US strategy toward Iran must place this reality at the center of its calculations. Abbas Milani is director of the Iranian Studies Programme at Stanford University and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2021.