Will the Tigers pull off a draft-day surprise this weekend?
Theres so much we dont know about Sundays MLB Draft will play out, but lets make some educated guesses. 1. If prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer is still around when the Detroit Tigers No. 3 pick comes up, they will grab him. 2. Marcelo Mayer probably wont be around. If theres a consensus -- and finding a consensus for this years draft has been more difficult than most -- its that the Pittsburgh Pirates will take Mayer with the No. 1 overall pick and the Texas Rangers will take Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Leiter with No. 2. But that scenario is far from set in stone, and there a number of intriguing what-ifs that have probably kept the Tigers decision-makers up at night for the last several weeks. In theory, there should be more pressure when you have the No. 1 pick as opposed to the No. 3 pick. But by the time of the 2018 draft, Auburn pitcher Casey Mize had more or less arrived as the consensus No. 1 pick. Last summer, Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson had the same distinction. Theres no guarantee that Mize and Torkelson will end up being the best players in their class, but the Tigers selected the players who were widely perceived as being the best at the time, which eases some of the pressure of a high-pressure pick. But things are a bit different for the No. 3 pick. Based on a perusal of several mock drafts, there are at least eight players the Tigers could take on Sunday without the pick being a complete surprise. Among the plausible names are: Mayer; Leiter; Texas prep shortstop Jordan Lawlar; North Carolina prep shortstop Kahlil Watson; University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis; Georgia prep shortstop Brady House; and Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker. And then theres Oklahoma prep pitcher Jackson Jobe. He deserves special mention because hes the guy whos probably causing a lot of those sleepless nights. Many believe the Tigers are smitten with him, perhaps moreso than any other team. One projection says if Jobe doesnt go to the Tigers at No. 3, he could slide down to No. 9 or lower. A big right-hander with a nasty slider, Jobe is considered the best prep pitching prospect in the draft. But prep pitchers are high-risk gambits due to injuries and other factors. Lets say the Pirates and Rangers pass on Leiter, instead grabbing a couple of the prep shortstops the Tigers might have otherwise considered. That would leave the Tigers quite a choice: Jobe or Leiter. Taking Jobe would be an incredibly gutsy pick because of the widespread belief that Leiter can rocket to the big leagues. It could look really bad, really fast if Leiter is pitching in All-Star games while Jobe is struggling in Class A.  Thats one of the benefits of a later pick. It allows a team to increase its risk threshold, throw caution to the wind and take someone that they really want. Lets be honest: Grabbing Jobe at No. 9 would be celebrated as a bargain; taking him at No. 3 would be viewed as almost reckless. But thats also the best argument for taking Jobe, if the Tigers truly do covet him: Draft-day perception really doesnt matter. Sure, everyone celebrates the No. 1 overall pick, but after Sunday, no one will remember or care which player was drafted third, fifth, seventh or 11th. If the Tigers want Jobe, go get him.