Is Australia on the brink of a national covid outbreak?
Most of Australia is on high alert amid an explosion in covid cases across several states, with lockdowns and new border control measures being announced. The Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland have joined New South Wales in implementing restrictions as health authorities battle surging covid cases. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has declared that NSW is in its scariest period since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. However Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has fended off suggestions the country is on the brink of an outbreak as the vaccine rollout crawls along, saying: There will be cases that will follow, we need to be honest and aware of that but can we manage it, yes. Those were the key questions posed on Sunday nights episode of The Project, with two experts weighing in on the key mistakes we are making that could allow covid to spiral out of control. Appearing on the segment was the host of ABCs Coronacast, Dr Norman Swan, and Professor Peter Collignon, an Infectious Diseases physician and microbiologist at the Canberra Hospital. RELATED: The latest news on Covid-19 in Australia  1. Failing to plan for winter  Australia, once the envy of the world for keeping covid at bay, became too complacent and failed to adequately plan for our peak danger time  winter. Dr Swan says more people should have been vaccinated as its the only defence we have against the virus. This is a pretty scary moment with the virus, where one person in an uncontrolled situation can probably pass it onto six or eight others, Dr Swan said of the current outbreak. So this is a very contagious virus. Its not clear how you could have planned for winter other than getting people vaccinated, and we failed miserably at that so far.  He warned that as more older people receive their vaccinations, younger people will be most affected by the virus as they will become more vulnerable. Professor Peter Collignon said: The real problem is we are all more complacent than we were a year ago. Winter is just the time you expect these outbreaks to occur. So weve got a problem between now and probably early October.  Prof Collignon said mask wearing, and limiting the number of people in indoor settings, will be key in trying to stop a national outbreak over winter, until 70 per cent of the adult population can be vaccinated. Which he sayd wont happen by the end of winter. 2. Not having a purpose-built quarantine facility  Dr Swan pointed out that the nation has a huge weak spot in containing the spread: Hotel quarantine. Once the virus goes into the community, it spreads fast, he said. You only need one little weak spot, and our major weak spot is hotel quarantine. Look what happened. The Northern Territory locked down, effectively, because of a hotel quarantine leak and its not the first in Queensland, theyve had a few. The flight crew, you had spread from room to room, and yet were not building purpose built facilities for another six months. Why we cant just throw up a facility very, very quickly, we badly need it now.  3. Lack of vaccine supply  Another key problem is the lack of supply of vaccines. Dr Swan said that people are wanting to be vaccinated, but many have to wait for Pfizer. There is just not enough supply of Pfizer, which is the one were relying on for the under 60s. Theres not enough around. They have really stuffed up, particularly in aged care.  Prof Collignon agreed that vaccine supply has been a major issue: I dont think we have empty lines at vaccination centres. Vaccine hesitancy is an issue, but so far the supply is more of an issue than the hesitancy. That may change with time. The only good news is as soon as the outbreaks happen, people realise that look, theres a one in a million chance I may die after getting the AstraZeneca vaccine, if Im over the age of 80, my chance of dying if I get covid is one in 10. Even at 60yo its one in a few hundred.  4. Failure to vaccinate all frontline staff  Another issue is low vaccination rates among age care workers and other frontline staff such as aircrew and limousine drivers. Theres one myth about aged care  is that visitors bring in Covid-19  its staff who bring in Covid-19, Dr Swan said. We saw that in Melbourne with the Arcare complex in Maidstone. The Commonwealth has failed to immunise staff. You cant get data on it. You have the bizarre situation of contractors going into aged care and not immunising staff while they were there. And theres churn and they changed the regulations late last year to allow staff to work in more than one facility. Its only when you have an emergency on that they clamp down on that. Lots of problems.  5. Not putting any urgency behind the need to get vaccinated  When Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that getting vaccinated is not a race, Dr Swan said that was very damaging and created more complacency. Because I suspect that  not a race  it goes back to their procurement policy, Dr Swan said. And they obviously thought that 10 million Pfizer doses was part of a four-vaccine strategy. A four-vaccine strategy meant you need to have enough doses for the whole population and they didnt. So they should have been looking for other vaccines at that time. Its unknown with what happened with Moderna or Johnson, there were other vaccines available. But we did not have a four-vaccine policy.  Ultimately, The Project summed up the main sentiment of their covid segment with a quote from a Perth couple who had just been turned away from the AFL game at Optus Stadium. They said they were a bit disappointed, however: Id rather be safe than dead, mate.