What Can Trigger an Indo-Pak War? Will it remain LimitedWar?
KhooniVirus making rounds, killing people, locking the down...and in the process eating GDP of everyone... creating millions upon millions jobless people..    For now we only see CeaseFireLine on permanent high temperature.... TrenchWarfare tit-for-tat... the brave Indians killing PakCivilians... PA responding robustly...but with extra care...since the valiant Indians have positioned themselves among PakKashmiris in IoJK...    All Activity...but no Movement from either side. StatusQuo of being stuck in the TrenchWarfare on the CeaseFireLine.... In essence an Inertia.... The KillerVirus has done great damage to PakEconomy already...and when the lockdown ends ..it will take FiveYears to be in good region of GDP growth... that is above 5% .... and then there is Redemption of Loans and the good old FATF behaving like an expensive mistress never happy with anything...never in the mood... asking ever more things for the delight in return! PulwamaDrama... IAF's killing OurTrees and Murdering OurCrow... landslide Victory for Modi.... SwiftRetort proved a Dangerous Fact... there is NO Hegemon... that India cann't impose its will on Pakistan. It is now split milk talking about we should downed 9 IAF fighters instead of 2.... we can feed this spilt milk to dog or a cat..but cats are selecitve...    We dominated the Escalation Ladder... proved to the good Indians and IndiaPhraandz... that StatusQuo is the Rules of the Game! Back to drawing boards...    India did a paper excercise of annexation of IoJK... trying to pre-empt the US exit from Kabulistan.... and put PakKashmiris in Lockdown...they are still in LockDown... The good Indians took 14.000 young PakKashmiris and where they are... only the good Indians know...    PMIK made his speech in the UN and has successfully put a harpoon in the side of FacistModi the Hitler of the East.... and the harpoon is still there...    No O-I-See meeting... is more than obvious that we, Pak and PakKashmiris are alone in this... save China, Turkiye and Malaysia... we are ALONE nevertheless! Nothing...    KhooniVirus came as blessing for Modi... now he can lockdown 1.3Bln good Indians and none to protest about CAA... The flip side is that the Modi Regime has to borrow from its CentralBank.. printing money that is... and Indian GDP keeps tanking further with many BlackHoles in its BankingSector... the jobless growth of previous two/three years is now coming home to roost...with ever increasing number of jobless young good Indians....    And even in this Reign of KhooniVirus the Hindutva/FacistRegime has been trying to frame Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan one way or the other.... economic bycott of msulims is all the rage in India.... with fruit/veg sellers putting on the Saffron Flag to Identify that they are Indians and not muslims....    Lockdown... will end... but when it ends ... India will be facing some severe economic and social challenges.... CAA is not implemented yet... It is imperative to understand that the Delhi Pogrom started when the POTUS was in town.. that goes on to show the level of confidence that the FacistRegime and its StateApparatus feels... especially now that the CombinedWest is all hell bent to 'punish' China.... The good Indians feel that their market value has gone up in this scenario ...and the prospects of some manufacturing coming there way.... mouthwatering....    Kabulistan is going to be left to its own devices...accelerated by the KhooniVirus... Persia has a footprint there... so some proxies fights..like the good old days.... thought Taliban of today are NOT the Talibans of olden years.... On with Fencing! Oil is Cheap. Oil is now going to be Cheap for sometime.... GCC can only afford so many expats working there.... KhooniVirus and CheapOil ... eating GDP everywhere... The GreatShrink might turn into the GreatDepression....    That would essentially mean lack of Forex for Pakistan...already in deeply distressed state... also for the Indian Forex as well... but to a lesser degree...the good Indians still count $500+Bln in their Forex...    Pakistan's internal political unstability will gain more momentum...given the nature of Khottaism of the pervailing Khottacracy called JumWhoriat.... cherry on top is the Judiciary which is now fashioning itself int the mirror as ThePowerCentre of the PakState.... Already all instituition are hollowed out...effectively turning Pakistan into SoftState...that cann't even prosecute an EconomicTerrorist even when it holds all the smoking guns in its hands... In this backdrop if the social unrest or deep recession hit India badly .... Modi will go for a Grand Distraction ...unlike PulwamaDrama... this time the FacistRegime needs to frame PakKashmiris, Pakistan and Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan into one Giant Villian...    FATF is some months away... PulwamaDrama happened before the UN vote ...which China Vetoed in our favour... then was FATF .... we got saved by the skin of our teeth! Pakistan is hit so hard with EconomicTerrorism and the CriminalEnterprise that stability and economic growth will take all the strength and effort we can muster...    And this financial year we have to redeem more debt and service the interest as well....    Pakistan is in pretty bad shape on many fronts... it is a FACT that we better see as it is....    With the US now fully supporting India and bent on creating a counter-weight to China ..the same way it used China as counterweight against the Soviets.... Balance of Power ...well... on paper at least... Hence, India is in a better negotiation position with the CombinedWest ... and we are NOT. Nothing...KhooniVirus came as blessing for Modi... now he can lockdown 1.3Bln good Indians and none to protest about CAA...The flip side is that the Modi Regime has to borrow from its CentralBank.. printing money that is... and Indian GDP keeps tanking further with many BlackHoles in its BankingSector... the jobless growth of previous two/three years is now coming home to roost...with ever increasing number of jobless young good Indians....And even in this Reign of KhooniVirus the Hindutva/FacistRegime has been trying to frame Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan one way or the other.... economic bycott of msulims is all the rage in India.... with fruit/veg sellers putting on the Saffron Flag to Identify that they are Indians and not muslims....Lockdown... will end... but when it ends ... India will be facing some severe economic and social challenges....It is imperative to understand that the Delhi Pogrom started when the POTUS was in town.. that goes on to show the level of confidence that the FacistRegime and its StateApparatus feels... especially now that the CombinedWest is all hell bent to 'punish' China.......and the prospects of some manufacturing coming there way.... mouthwatering....Kabulistan is going to be left to its own devices...accelerated by the KhooniVirus... Persia has a footprint there... so some proxies fights..like the good old days.... thought Taliban of today are NOT the Talibans of olden years.... On with Fencing!Oil is Cheap. Oil is now going to be Cheap for sometime.... GCC can only afford so many expats working there....... eating GDP everywhere... The GreatShrink might turn into the GreatDepression....That would essentially mean lack of Forex for Pakistan...already in deeply distressed state... also for the Indian Forex as well... but to a lesser degree...the good Indians still count $500+Bln in their Forex...Pakistan's internal political unstability will gain more momentum...given the nature of Khottaism of the pervailing Khottacracy called JumWhoriat.... cherry on top is the Judiciary which is now fashioning itself int the mirror as ThePowerCentre of the PakState....Already all instituition are hollowed out...effectively turning Pakistan into SoftState...that cann't even prosecute an EconomicTerrorist even when it holds all the smoking guns in its hands...In this backdrop if the social unrest or deep recession hit India badly .... Modi will go for a Grand Distraction ...unlike PulwamaDrama...FATF is some months away......which China Vetoed in our favour... then was FATF .... we got saved by the skin of our teeth!Pakistan is hit so hard with EconomicTerrorism and the CriminalEnterprise that stability and economic growth will take all the strength and effort we can muster...Pakistan is in pretty bad shape on many fronts... it is a FACT that we better see as it is....With the US now fully supporting India and bent on creating a counter-weight to China ..the same way it used China as counterweight against the Soviets.... Balance of Power ...well... on paper at least...  We need to take the rhetoric of attacking GB/AJK seriously.... Attacks in Balochistan and former FATA will continue...might expand.... Fenching...Fencing... Fencing...    As long as Pakistan is miltarily strong enough to punch back... India will remain chained to the dust plains of Gangees... not even a strong regional power... SwiftRetort showed that the Emperor has no cloths...    All we hear now is:    Eik F sola ka sawal hae baba, eik F sola dae dae, baba (Credit: PaaJee      All those IndianConcentrationCamps and those warnings from GenocideWatch.... Delhi Pogrom ... still nothing from the CombinedWest in form sanctions/reprimands... NOTHING! This all provides India a window of opportunity... perhaps, very last window of opportunity to engage in Intense Limited War with Pakistan... to weaken or cripple OurArmedForces... but it needs a context far bigger than PulwamaDrama! EconomicDepression/Recession... highest percentage of jobless young Indian... CAA, IoJK... CheapOil... Good Forex... and should things go hot internallly for the FacistRegime... then a Grand Distraction...    After PulwamaDrama the good Indians are already conditioned by their media... so if a Series of Massive FalseFlags were to happen then Modi will be 'forced' to take punitive actions against the 'tarrorishts'    The most likely theatre appears to be AJK/GB... we need to understand there is strategy behind the brave IndianArmy tragetting PakCivilians... the good Indians want to create an exodus of PakCivilians and might push PakKashmiris in...    North is the logical Indian target... should it succeed ..it will cut off CPEC i.e. China and Pakistan linkage by land... which the CombinedWest also won't mind at all... Attacks in Balochistan and former FATA will continue...might expand.... Fenching...Fencing... Fencing...All we hear now is:(Credit: PaaJee @SIPRA All those IndianConcentrationCamps and those warnings from GenocideWatch.... Delhi Pogrom ...This all provides India a window of opportunity... perhaps, very last window of opportunity to engage inwith Pakistan... to weaken or cripple OurArmedForces...EconomicDepression/Recession... highest percentage of jobless young Indian... CAA, IoJK... CheapOil... Good Forex... and should things go hot internallly for the FacistRegime... then a Grand Distraction...After PulwamaDrama the good Indians are already conditioned by their media... so if a Series of Massive FalseFlags were to happen then Modi will be 'forced' to take punitive actions against the 'The most likely theatre appears to be AJK/GB... we need to understand there is strategy behind the brave IndianArmy tragetting PakCivilians... the good Indians want to create an exodus of PakCivilians and might push PakKashmiris in...North is the logical Indian target... should it succeed ..it will cut off CPEC i.e. China and Pakistan linkage by land... which the CombinedWest also won't mind at all...  Our Navy is still in the process of modernising..and all assets are in the Future...  PAF is good...but could be much better with 50 odd Blk3. The new tank deal for PA is great...but its delivery is in the Future too...      All these factors make it likely that the FacistRegime will give it one last shot to get out of the StatusQuo of FrozenWar...and Hindutva might be willing to Open the Giant Can of Worms ... leveraging its better negotiating position with the CombinedWest....    Funnily, enought the window of opportunity for the CominedWest to box China is also closing fast...as China climbs the ladder of TechnoFeudalHierachy and starts to become Techological Independent Actor.... China needs max five years to change the equation of TechnoFeudalHierachy .... Victtory for Pakistan is quite simple: Keeping the Boundaries of Pakistan intact and keeping PakArmedForces highly functional after such an imposed war. Unless, Pakistan has developed DisruptiveWarfighting strategies and tactics... a standard StatuQuo ClockworkWarFighting is going to be very expensive....