Will capacity crowds be back at football stadiums in 2021-22?
For every image that chronicled Englands Euro 2020 victory over Germany on Tuesday night, there was a backdrop to illustrate just what it meant to those lucky enough to be inside Wembley. Euphoria and jubilation flooded down from the stands as the goals of Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane set up a quarter-final against Ukraine tomorrow night. Only 40,000 (less than half capacity, as the lockdown restrictions that kept games behind closed doors for a year are slowly eased), but it was as good an atmosphere as I can remember in Wembley, said an appreciative Gareth Southgate afterwards. That last-16 tie was a landmark moment for this ambitious young England side but also, importantly, represented another important step back towards normality for a nations football supporters. Not since the COVID-19 pandemic forced its first lockdown in March of last year had so many fans been able to attend a football match staged in the UK, the precursor to even more clicking through the turnstiles for the semi-finals and final of these Euros back at Wembley over the next nine days. UEFA confirmed last week that more than 60,000  75 per cent of capacity  will be there to see the new European champions crowned on Sunday, July 11. Dispensation has come under the UK governments Events Research Programme (ERP), a series of cross-sport tests designed to welcome back significant crowds, and English football is ready to be the timely beneficiary when a new domestic season begins next month. The hope  and it is still hope, rather than expectation  is that the 2021-22 season will be markedly different to the previous two. Nobody can yet provide guarantees that capacity crowds will return but footballs governing bodies are united by an optimism that a corner has been turned. The answers will ultimately come from the government, who this week doubled down on their ambitions to lift all lockdown measures in the next few weeks. The restrictions on our freedoms, they must come to an end, said the new Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who is reportedly a lockdown sceptic, on Tuesday. We see no reason to go beyond July 19.  Thousands of fans stream out of Wembley following Englands win over Germany (Photo: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)  That will see limits on large gatherings removed and, in theory, big numbers in English stadiums next month. The Premier League has made its stance clear since May. Full capacity crowds have been the missing ingredient, so lets be optimistic about it, said Premier League chief executive Richard Masters. No one knows of course, but I feel really optimistic that we will be full.  The Premier Leagues name, along with that of the EFL, home of the 72 clubs of the Championship and Leagues One and Two, was also added to a cross-sport letter to the UKs leading political parties calling for a clear COVID-19 certificate system that would facilitate full-capacity stadia. Little has changed in the Premier Leagues outlook. If anything, its view has been emboldened since crowds of up to 10,000 were able to watch the final two rounds of last seasons games in May. The prospect of 60,000 fans attending the final of Euro 2020 strengthens the argument that similar numbers can attend Premier League fixtures next month, as do capacity crowds for a number of other summer sporting events. A full house of 15,000 will be inside Centre Court for the finals of Wimbledon next weekend, while 140,000 are heading to Silverstone for the British Formula One Grand Prix on July 18. Lords, in north London, will also hold a full-capacity crowd for the one-day cricket international between England and Pakistan next Saturday. The Premier League continues to work closely with the ERP, which will publish results from all test events through the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. The first phase included the FA Cup final, attended by 21,000 at Wembley in May, and encouraging data subsequently paved the way for crowd numbers to be ramped up for the Euros. All those attending ERP events are required to show either proof of two COVID-19 vaccinations or a negative test result, protocols likely to be replicated at Premier League and EFL grounds. There is still caution and contingencies afoot. One Premier League club to speak to The Athletic stressed they have not budgeted for full capacities next season and will plan for three scenarios in which they welcome back either 50 per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of their stadiums capacity. Another top-flight club are hoping for as close to capacity as possible. They added, at present, it would be inconceivable to be limited to anything less than 50 per cent. A third Premier League club expect to be able to host all their season-ticket holders across the season. Any underlying caution stems from the false dawn of last December, where crowds of 2,000 were briefly allowed to attend Premier League games ahead of the UKs second wave obliterating plans to increase numbers at the turn of the year. Not until the vaccine programme brought additional protection were fans allowed back for those final two rounds of games in May. This time, however, the landscape is markedly different. Despite cases rising again due to the Delta variant, every adult in the UK is now eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccination and government figures show over 33 million people  half of the population  have now had two doses of vaccine. That figure will be higher still by the time the Premier League and EFL get back underway next month. How the 92 grounds will look is still unclear ahead of the Championships Friday-night season opener between Bournemouth and West Bromwich Albion five weeks from today. A red zone has been needed for an inner circle of players and staff on a match-day over the last 12 months to maintain social bubbles, measures that would bring seat kills in affected areas and in turn reduce capacities. The exact protocol for 2021-22 has yet to be relayed to clubs. The noise surrounding the return of away fans is nevertheless positive. Tickets have not been sold to travelling supporters for 16 months but The Athletic has been told there is broad agreement the wait will come to an end next month as the government encourages local economies to be rebuilt. There are no restrictions on away supporters attending Rugby League games this summer, for example, and any capacity reductions in the Premier League would not see away allocations targeted first. The threat of regionalised spikes in towns and cities across England, though, would demand a certain flexibility. A small fly in the ointment are the results published by Public Health Scotland this week. Close to 2,000 COVID-19 cases in Scotland have been linked to people watching games at Euro 2020, with 397 of the 2,600 travelling fans attending the group game with England at Wembley later returning positive test results. The data does not offer any clear detail on where those fans became infected during their trips to London but almost 90 per cent of those 2,000 positive cases were male, with three-quarters of the total aged between 20 and 39. That age demographic is not yet fully protected by two vaccinations. Such results would suggest there is a flaw to a system that required all fans at Wembley to show proof of a double vaccine or negative test, but large public gatherings of Scotland fans in areas of London away from the stadium, such as in Leicester Square, included thousands not required to show any form of COVID-19 status. No matter what form it comes in, through the NHS app or otherwise, both the Premier League and EFL believe a COVID-19 pass can keep the show on the road throughout the season, regardless of new waves in the winter months. We know that our stadia can only be fully filled with an assurance process, say the Premier League. The starting gun on a new EFL season will fire five weeks tomorrow, on August 7, and for Cambridge United it will be an eagerly-anticipated occasion. Promotion out of League Two last season has lifted Cambridge back into English footballs third tier for the first time since 2001-02 and a new campaign begins at home to Oxford United in what amounts to a professional Varsity date. Just how many will be there at the Abbey Stadium to see that League One opener is still bound by caveats but there is no denying the hope. My working assumption, one Im sure is shared by most clubs, is that we will be back with unrestricted crowds, Ian Mathers, Cambridges chief executive, told The Athletic. Cambridge United, like many Football League clubs, hope to welcome back fans next season (Photo: Kieran Cleeves/PA Images via Getty Images)  I think we might have restrictions on them, such as wearing a mask when moving around; we might have to have COVID passports as theyve been doing at Wembley. Well work with any restrictions were given. But one thatd be really tough for clubs and fans is if there was a limit on numbers.  The financial void created by the absence of supporters was most keenly felt below the Premier League last season. The EFLs 72 clubs played out most of the season behind closed doors, after having 2019-20 cut short for most clubs in the bottom two divisions, and were unable to have that blow cushioned by the TV money handed out to those in the top flight. There was some help. Championship clubs have been able to access a 117.5 million loan facility arranged by the EFL to cover PAYE up to June 30, while clubs in Leagues One and Two were given a direct bail-out from the Premier League. Each received at least 250,000, with scope for more through a lost gate revenue share calculation. The opportunity to charge fans 10 to stream every game online further limited the shortfall but last season brought financial challenges none wish to endure again. Restoring match-day revenue, for most, is considered a must in 2021-22. The bulk of the EFLs 72 clubs operate well within their capacities and, as such, do not rely on a green light for 100 per cent of seats and standing tickets to be available. For a good number, in fact, 50 per cent would suffice. The quarter capacities that attended the EFLs play-off ties in May, however, would have to be increased. The Premier League money we got in December covered about a third of gate loss for the season, adds Mather. We did benefit in other ways, like furlough money from the government and iFollow money. Both were significant. We weathered the storm using all the methods available to us, but to go through another season like that is something were not planning on. Fans deserve to be allowed to come back, too.  And that is a narrative both the Premier League and EFL believe cannot be overlooked. The vast majority of supporters have not seen their clubs play live since March 2020, forced to stay away and watch games from afar on TVs and computer screens. Sacrifices were made but the advances made through mass vaccination ensure it is now increasingly safe for the hordes to return. You look at England v Germany and it becomes a big genie to stick back in the bottle, says Mather. Were showing, event after event, that it can be done safely. People need a release and it seems as though now the risks are relatively low. Im not anticipating any limit on crowd numbers for the new season. Thats certainly the hope.  (Top photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)