Is Murphy's decision to lift the mandate on school masks based on science or politics?
When Gov. Phil Murphy announced last week that he had reversed his stance and would not mandate mask-wearing at New Jersey schools come September, it came at an unusual time. Schools aren't due to open for another two months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has yet to issue its guidance on school mask-wearing. And last week the World Health Organization, Los Angeles County and many public health experts began urging people to start wearing masks indoors again, fearful that the highly transmissible delta variant may spread uncontrollably among the unvaccinated. This includes school-age children, who may not get sick from the variant but can easily transmit it to unvaccinated adults, who can be sickened. Murphy has not said why he made the decision except that mask-wearing in schools has "been top of mind for many," and he reserved the right to change if COVID numbers increase before the school year begins. Any politician is going to be balancing the political implications with the health implications, said David Redlawsk, chairman of the political science department at the University of Delaware and former director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. "It leaves people unsure of what to do. Last month it was one thing, this month its another." Recommendations: Mask guidelines are confusing if you're vaccinated against COVID-19. Experts break down the details. Murphy has said repeatedly that his pandemic-related decisions are based on data and science, but he is also seeking reelection in a state weary of COVID restrictions that were among the most stringent in the nation when New Jersey was the epicenter of the pandemic. Murphy has often been criticized for not lifting restrictions as fast as neighboring states. And while he has a comfortable lead over his GOP challenger, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, his favorable poll numbers have declined from their record high last year. While Murphy was able to remain steadfast last year in his ability to adhere to restrictions like mask-wearing mandates, this year he has to test the political winds more, political science experts say. Such is the life of a politician at a time when masks are still a political flashpoint even in blue New Jersey. Last month, hundreds of angry parents demonstrated outside the Statehouse demanding an end to mask-wearing in the final weeks of school as the weather became warmer. Less than a week later, Murphy allowed districts to waive the mask requirement indoors during a heat wave after being resolute that students would have to wear them. Alexandra Altman, a Murphy spokeswoman, said the administration may have done away with the mandate but has still not formally released its mask recommendations to districts, pending the CDC guidance due this month. "This is intended to provide flexibility for schools, local health officials and parents to work together on a masking policy that is based on local public health data and works best for their community," she said. That Murphy is looking to ease mask mandates and pass decision-making on to superintendents and school boards is not surprising, said Matthew Hale, a professor of political science at Seton Hall University. "The vast majority of parents want kids back in school without masks," Hale said. "You see it at school board meetings; you see the pressure on public officials. This now puts it squarely at the local level." Poll: Despite decreasing COVID-19 anxiety, 4 in 10 Americans are still wearing masks  To be sure, New Jersey is in a better place in the pandemic now than a month ago. Daily COVID hospitalizations dropped from 641 on the day Murphy said masks would be required on May 25 in schools to 293 last Monday, when he reversed his policy. The daily death toll is in the single digits. But that decline has plateaued in the past few weeks, with hospitalizations ranging between 290 and 330. The state's rate of transmission had increased to almost one on Friday  showing that the virus may be on the verge of spreading again. Murphy's own Health Department believes the delta variant is likely responsible for the increase. It has more than doubled in just seven days, going to 15.6% of all variant cases in the past four weeks from 7.3% the prior week. Health workers:'Overwhelming sense of gratitude': Over 100 residents cheer Teaneck vaccine workers on last day  Brandon Brown, a professor of public health at UC Riverside, said mask-wearing in schools is essential because students under 12 years likely won't be eligible for vaccinations until months later. Throwing masks out of the equation is not following the science, since we know masks prevent the spread of the virus, Brown said. "The emergence of the delta variant in the United States is alarming not only for unvaccinated adults but also for unvaccinated children, who need to be protected." Indeed, the American Academy of Pediatrics recently recommended that schools continue mask-wearing until the vaccine is available for younger age groups and vaccinations within the pediatric population are high enough to prevent transmission.  About 54% of all 9.2 million New Jerseyans are fully vaccinated. Murphy had a 57% approval rating in a recent Monmouth University poll  down from his high of 71% during the pandemic's early stages, but still higher than prepandemic polls. A Fairleigh Dickinson Poll released two weeks ago had Murphy with a comfortable lead over Ciatterelli, who has tried to make Murphy's pandemic restrictions a large focus of the campaign. But that may not work by the time the November election rolls around and everything remains status quo or better, said Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship. So long as COVID continues on the decline, the focus of the electorate will be on traditional issues of taxes and affordability, he said. Murphys record on the pandemic has already divided voters. Its baked in at this point, and it wont change, Dworkin said. "If that's someone's litmus test, then they've already made up their minds a long time ago." Scott Fallon covers the environment for NorthJersey.com. To get unlimited access to the latest news about how New Jerseys environment affects your health and well-being, please subscribe or activate your digital account today. Email: fallon@northjersey.com  Twitter: @newsfallon