Would Celtics executing Myles Turner trade with Pacers last offseason have put Boston in a better spot for future?
One of the decisions that helped shape the Celtics 2020 offseason was Danny Ainges decision not to pull the trigger on a potential sign-and-trade swap with the Indiana Pacers that would have sent Gordon Hayward out with Boston landing Myles Turner, a rotation player (multiple reports indicated it was Doug McDermott) and a first-round pick in exchange, per league sources. The Indianapolis Star confirmed this report as well. Just how far down the road the deal got in negotiations is subject to debate. Ultimately, Hayward did not wait around for the two sides to continue haggling and elected to sign with the Charlotte Hornets for a four-year, 120 million payday. The Celtics ultimately negotiated a sign-and-trade with Charlotte, landing a $28.5 million trade exception for two second-round picks. With a critical 2021 offseason on the horizon and the remainder of the Hayward trade exception ($11.5 million) set to expire in August if it goes unused, revisiting Bostons choice to pass on Turner feels like a useful exercise. Lets take a closer look at what changes about the teams situation now if a deal was done. 1. Tristan Thompson and Evan Fournier would not be Celtics today: This is a pretty easy declaration. Bringing in an $18 million center in Turner last offseason would have certainly taken Boston out of the free-agent market for Thompsons services (they would not have had the full mid-level to spend or the playing time to appeal to Thompson). Additionally, without creating a trade exception for dealing Hayward to Charlotte, the method to acquire Fournier without sending out salary to the Magic would not have been there, making it highly unlikely Fournier and his Bird Rights would be in Boston as he heads into unrestricted free agency this summer. 2. The Celtics current draft pick stash would have at least three more picks (barring other deals): Its not clear exactly which first-round pick (2021 or a future selection) Indiana put on the table with Turner in their trade talks with the Celtics but having an extra selection for Boston would have been valuable for a team that owns no other first-round picks besides their own for the foreseeable future. Additionally, Boston would have preserved two second-round picks they ultimately elected to send to Charlotte in order to create a $28.5 million trade exception for the sign-and-trade. 3. Bostons future payroll commitments would be a major concern with Turner on the books: While replacing Thompson with Turner and a first-round pick seem to be a net positive on paper for Boston moving forward, Turners pricy salary ($18 million per year through the 2022-23 season) would have been a costly burden on Bostons books moving forward. He and McDermott would have made Boston a tax team last season barring trading away other pieces, a move that would have hurt Bostons spending money over the long term for a team that was not a contender last year. However, a closer look at Bostons payroll for next season shows why having Turner on the books could have created even bigger issues. Under contract for 2021-22  Kemba Walker: $36 million  Jayson Tatum: $28.1 million ($33.7 million if he makes All-NBA)  Jaylen Brown: $26.8 million  Myles Turner: $18 million  Marcus Smart: $14.3 million  Romeo Langford: $3.8 million  Rob Williams: $3.6 million  Aaron Nesmith: $3.6 million  Grant Williams: $2.6 million  Payton Pritchard: $2.1 million  Carsen Edwards: $1.7 million  No. 16 pick: $3.2 million cap hold  Jabari Parker: $2.3 million  Total: $143.9 million committed to 12 players  That price tag would have put Boston in luxury tax territory already without doing anything to the roster. There would have been over $123 million committed to just five players for the 2021-22 season, a number that would rise even higher if Jayson Tatum makes the All-NBA team when its announced later this month. Boston already had an overpriced contract on the books in Walker so a second highly overpaid starter in Turner would have highly limited Bostons payroll flexibility moving forward. Turner did have a solid year in Indiana before missing the final two months of the season with plantar fasciitis but hes probably making twice his value on the open market when you compare his salary to what centers got on the open market last offseason. 2020 Center signings in free agency  Christian Wood: $13 million x 3 years  Derrick Favors: $9 million x 3 years  Montrezl Harrell: $9 million x 2 years  Tristan Thompson: $9 million x 2 years  Serge Ibaka: $9 million x 2 years  Jakob Poeltl: $8 million x 3 years  Mason Plumlee: $8 million x 3 years  Robin Lopez: $7.3 million x 1 year  Aron Baynes: $7 million x 2 years  The Celtics would also have taken another player in any Hayward swap to make the money work (likely Doug McDermott or Aaron Holiday). McDermott is an unrestricted free agent this offseason while Holiday would have remained on his rookie deal for another season. However, with Turner and Walkers deals on the books this offseason, the Celtics would not currently have any clear paths towards improving on either the trade or free agency market in the next two years with those contracts serving as anchors. Boston would simply have the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception but no other trade exceptions at their disposal. Evan Fournier would no longer be in the picture as well. Instead, a Celtics team with Turner would just still be a middle-of-the-road playoff team with an extremely pricy payroll. Assuming Bostons ownership is limited in how much money they are willing to spend, an extra first-round pick probably wouldnt have been worth another bloated contract. FINAL THOUGHTS  If a core of Walker/Brown/Tatum/Smart/Turner was good enough to contend in the East, that would not be a problem. However, Turners presence this past season would not have put Boston on the level of Brooklyn/Milwaukee/Philadelphia and that wouldnt change entering the 2021-22 season with no clear routes to improve that core. The Celtics currently enter this offseason with several tough decisions to make but things wouldnt be any easier right now for Brad Stevens in his first year at the helm if Turner was a Celtic. Boston has a little bit more flexibility right now to find ways to reshape the roster and having an overpriced Turner under contract would have been constricting on that front, even if it came with an extra first-round pick. Danny Ainge made some mistakes last offseason but passing on the Turner deal isnt a decision Celtics fans should be losing any sleep over.