What will happen on 21 June?
Last week the UK reached multiple milestones on its path out of the Covid-19 pandemic. Tuesday 1 June was the first day with zero Covid-19 deaths and on Friday 4 June the Government announced that it had given a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine to more than 40 million people. However, on Sunday 6 June the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, speaking BBCs The Andrew Marr Show, said that the Government is absolutely open to delaying the final lifting of restrictions on 21 June. Mr Hancock pointed to the Delta variant, first seen in India, as the reason for the Governments renewed caution around the final easing of lockdown restrictions. News and analysis, direct from Westminster to your inbox Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription. The Delta variant is believed to be about 40 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) strain and is also more resistant to vaccines. A report by Public Health England estimated that one vaccine dose may only be 33 per cent effective against the Delta variant. This variant has quickly become the most common in the UK, supplanting the Kent strain that has been dominant in the UK since its emergence last year. The variant is particularly prevalent at the moment in the north-west of England and London but is likely to continue to spread across the UK. The crucial question which will determine whether the reopening on 21 June continues as scheduled is whether or not the UKs existing vaccine programme can break the link between Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 hospitalisations. The Delta variants high vaccine resistance would suggest that this might not be so easy, even though the number of patients in hospital has fallen greatly since February. Although this data might indicate that there is little reason not to abandon Covid-19 restrictions on 21 June, there is always a time lag between a rise in cases and a rise in hospital admissions. Current hospital admissions are not a good indicator of future admissions, especially when dealing with a novel Covid-19 variant that has only recently become dominant in the UK. Just because hospital admissions seemed to have levelled off for the moment does not mean that that they will not increase once the Delta strain is prevalent across the UK. Ultimately, Mr Hancocks statements would suggest that the Government is becoming less bullish about removing restrictions on 21 June. Several Sage scientists have also publicly called for the ending of restrictions on 21 June to be delayed. If opening-up were to be delayed, it might be until a higher percentage of the UK have received their second Covid-19 doses, which would ensure more protection against the Delta strain and protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.