Are BJP and Shiv Sena heading for a reunion?
On June 20, Shiv Sena MLA Pratap Sarnaik wrote to Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, urging that their party reunite with the BJP and accusing Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, of trying to create a rift among Shiv Sena legislators. Sarnaik, a close associate of Thackeray, is under the Enforcement Directorate (ED) scanner for alleged involvement in the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) scam worth Rs 5,600 crore. Many would argue that Sarnaiks letter is an attempt to save his skin, but it has nevertheless fuelled talk of a potential reunion between the Sena and the BJP, allies-turned-arch rivals. The Sena and the BJP were allies since 1989 and ran two coalition governments in Maharashtra. They parted ways in November 2019 when they were about to form a third coalition government. One of the main reasons for the split was that the BJP, which got 105 seats, refused to share the chief ministers post (in rotation) with the Sena (56 seats). The state is being ruled by the MVA since 2019. Talks of a possible reunion between the Sena and the BJP also gained momentum after Thackeray sought a private meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 8. The one-on-one chat lasted about 30 minutes. The conversation was a next step of goodwill that Thackeray extended to PM Modi. He had already been praising and thanking the PM for supplying adequate medical oxygen and life-saving drugs to Maharashtra during the pandemic. The formula  According to a BJP source, both parties are discussing a power-sharing formula under which the BJP will let Thackeray continue as the CM for another year (till he completes 2.5 years in office since 2019). Till then, the BJP will have two deputy CMs. The BJP will take the CMs chair in mid-2022. A few Sena MPs may get berths in the Union cabinet if the formula works out. As part of the under-consideration formula, the BJP and Sena will contest the crucial elections to prominent civic bodies, including in Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Aurangabad and Nagpur, in alliance (like they did in 2012). In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP will contest 30 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra, four more than its previous quota, leaving 18 seats for Thackerays party. They will equally share the 288 seats in the state assembly election due in 2024with the party that gets more seats taking the CMs post. Interestingly, the understanding on the CMs post was a signed agreement between the BJP and the Sena till 2009. They contested separately in 2014. In 2019, there was no written agreement between them. Thackeray had broken away from the BJP in 2019, alleging that the party had done a U-turn on its oral promise of CM by rotation. The power-sharing formula is a proposal by the BJP. It is up to the Shiv Sena to respond to it. The BJP source claims PM Modi is keen on a reunion with the Sena in order to secure the BJPs position in the 2024 general election. Maharashtra is the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh (80 seats). The BJP fears it may get as few as five Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra if the MVA continues till 2024. Thackeray is under pressure from several central investigation agencies, like the ED, CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) and NCB (Narcotics Control Bureau), which are probing his trusted men, including Sarnaik. If he mends fences with the BJP, it could arguably bring some relief on that front. Also, the Centre may announce a financial package for Maharashtra, the state worst affected by the Covid pandemic. That Thackeray is not getting along with ministers from the NCP and Congress is no secret. On the Shiv Senas foundation day on June 19, he said his party will not carry anyone on a palanquin. Hindutva and Marathi pride will continue to remain our priorities, he said. It was a message to the Congress, which has of late been singing the tune of going solo in all future elections in the state. We will contest all elections on our own, Nana Patole, state Congress president, had said. Thackerays trusted aide Sanjay Raut, chief spokesperson of the Sena, rules out any threat to the MVA government. Some people are trying to divide the MVA. The government will last its five-year term, he says. A BJP source says there is no question mark on the Thackeray government: We also want him to continue as the chief minister, but in the BJP-Sena alliance.  Read India Today magazine by downloading the latest issue: https://www.indiatoday.com/emag