Who will the Red Sox choose at No. 4 in the MLB draft?
Months turned into weeks, weeks into days, and now the distance until the start of Sundays draft is measured in hours. Yet even with that proximity, and even with just three teams (the Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers) picking before the Red Sox make their highest selection since they chose Mike Garman in 1967, it remains difficult to forecast who Boston will take. The 2021 MLB draft starts on Sunday. The Red Sox hold the No. 4 overall pick in the first round, their highest selection since 1967. Leading up to the first round on Sunday, the Globe will offer a closer look at some of the players in consideration for the teams first-round selection. Advertisement  Theres one near-certainty for the Sox: High school shortstop Marcelo Mayer is expected to be off the board. Hes viewed as the most likely player to get taken first overall by Pittsburgh, and after Detroit officials blanketed him this spring, Mayer isnt expected to fall past No. 3. Presuming Mayer is off the board, theres a lot of guessing about whom the Red Sox will choose. Significant variables remain for a team picking fourth, including:   Who will be picked in the top three spots;   How the team lines up its board based on the ongoing conversations among the clubs scouts and front office members;   Whether the Sox evaluate a less-heralded player as comparable to the more notable ones in the draft  something that could open the door for the team to take a player who might command a lower signing bonus. (With a hard cap on how much teams can spend on draftees this year, money saved on a top pick can allow a team to pursue players with first-round talent who drop due to signing bonus demands.) On Thursday, Red Sox director of amateur scouting Paul Toboni outlined why the Sox wanted to keep an open mind about their selection rather than limiting their conversation to a top four. Advertisement  I think theres actually more downside to eliminating players that might be in consideration, doing that early, as opposed to letting the conversations play out, said Toboni. Really up until the final day, youre really never sure what momentum might be created by people in the room, by what agents are saying, by what kids are telling you. I think keeping as many players alive as possible so that it doesnt affect your ability to dig deep on that number of players is a smart thing.  Multiple evaluators guessed that the Red Sox would find it hard to pass on the established performance tracks of the two best college prospects in the draft  Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. Yet theres no guarantee either will be available at No. 4. Moreover, the Sox have been comfortable in recent years making high school upside plays with their top pick, something they did with Triston Casas in 2018 and Nick Yorke in 2020. The Sox bucked industry consensus to take Yorke, a player they loved, signing him for a bonus ($2.7 million) that was well below the MLB slot recommendation at the No. 17 spot ($3.6 million)  indicating it might be difficult to anticipate who the Sox might prioritize. They used the savings to select and sign high school power hitter Blaze Jordan in the third round, conferring upon him a $1.75 million bonus in line with an early second-round pick. Advertisement  Even if the Sox dont target a below-slot player, theyve demonstrated a willingness to move aggressively on high school talent. If potential five-tool shortstop Jordan Lawlar is available at No. 4, the Sox may find his range of skills hard to resist. But there are others  particularly high school shortstops. Kahlil Watson, who played in a pandemic-shortened season for Wake Forest (N.C.) High School, is another five-tool shortstop who, though just 5-foot-9, generates incredible bat speed and thunderous power with his lefthanded swing. He could go anywhere in the top seven picks. Khalil Watson, a five-tool shortstop prospect out of North Carolina, could go in the top-10 on Sunday. Courtesy/Wake Forest High School Athletic Department  He can do so many things offensively, said high school coach Mike Joyner. Hes a high school kid making professional contact.  With his swing, hes a very explosive player. One scout put it best: In the competition between the bat and the ball, the bat generally wins with Kahlil.  Power-hitting shortstop Brady House from Winder-Barrow (Ga.) High School recently visited Fenway for a workout. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, hes already huge for a shortstop and may grow off the position, but for now, he has enough range and certainly the arm to stay there. That size creates potential holes in his swing, but House showed the ability to handle top-end velocity this spring while showing elite power potential. The high school shortstop class  Mayer, Lawlar, Watson, and House  is remarkably deep, and represents a demographic to which the Sox virtually never have access when picking later in the first round. Advertisement  If we were picking at 17, 20, 25-ish, we still wouldnt be able to access premium high school shortstops, said Toboni. Weve kind of played that game in our head.  But the same is true of a top college catcher (Davis), or the top college arms in the class  including Leiter as well as fellow Vanderbilt standout Kumar Rocker. Rocker features a dominant fastball and slider. His lack of a clear go-to third pitch led him to fall from his status as the consensus No. 1 entering the year to the point where most expect him to land outside of the top five  particularly given the industry concern about the uncertainty of all pitchers. Even so, Rocker has arguably the most consistent amateur track record of any prospect in the draft, and while no one has connected him recently to the Sox (beyond noting that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom scouted both Rocker and Leiter), he wouldnt seem out of place near the top of the board. Then again, based on the Yorke pick, theres industry speculation that if Mayer, Leiter, and Davis are unavailable, the Sox could go in a very different direction and cut a deal with a player projected to land further down. In short, even though the Sox are picking fourth, there are more than four possible choices for them to mull leading up to Sunday. Advertisement  I have probably just as unsettling of a feeling as all of you have, Toboni said on his conference call. Just like we like to keep all of you on your toes sometimes, I think other organizations will probably be keeping us on our toes.  More draft coverage   In 2018, the Red Sox got a good early look at Jack Leiter.  2021 MLB Draft guide: How to watch, first-round order, and when the Red Sox pick   One scouts take on Jordan Lawlar: I think hes going to be a superstar   Two Red Sox pitchers helped Henry Davis become the top college position player in the draft   New Englands MLB Draft class is one of the deepest ever   Sal Frelick is one of the best baseball prospects out of New England in a decade   Massachusetts Josh Bez is possible first-rounder, and a potential superstar in MLB  Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @alexspeier.