Will public school enrollments in central Ohio rebound as pandemic wanes?
Chalkbeat, the Associated Press, The Columbus Dispatch and The Cincinnati Enquirer  Ashley Pearce's daughter was set to start kindergarten last year in Maryland's Montgomery County school system. But when it became clear that the year would begin online, Pearce found a nearby Catholic school offering in-person instruction and made the switch. She's hesitant to uproot her daughter after she's made friends, and Pearce worries that the district might go fully virtual again if there's an uptick in coronavirus cases. "It's going to be fine if we stay where we are, and that stability for my family is probably the way we're going to go." COVID causing enrollment drop in Columbus-area schools  As many parents across the U.S. weigh the same concerns, school districts, including those in Ohio that lost enrollment during the pandemic, are looking anxiously to the fall to see how many families stick with the education choices they made over the last year. In hopes of attracting students, many districts have launched new efforts to connect with families with young children, including blanketing communities with yard signs and enlisting bus drivers to call parents. There are early signs that enrollment might not fully rebound, and the stakes are high. If enrollment does not recover, public schools that lose students eventually could see funding cuts, though pandemic relief money is boosting budgets for now. Sustained drops in enrollment also could shift the demographics of America's public schools. A first-of-its-kind analysis by Chalkbeat and the Associated Press found that enrollment declines varied by student race and ethnicity. Enrollment in preschool to 12th grade dropped by 2.6% across 42 states last fall, and the decline was steepest among white students, whose enrollment fell more than 4%. The Chalkbeat/AP analysis nationwide found that enrollment in preschool to 12th grade dropped by 2.6% across 42 states last fall, and the decline was steepest among white students, whose enrollment fell more than 4%. The decline in Ohio nearly mirrored what happened in the nation. The decline in enrollment in all schools was 2.94%, or roughly 50,000 students, with nonpublic schools dropping 2.01%. In central Ohio, Whitehall City Schools saw the area's largest enrollment drop with a decline of 10.8% (about 380 students), followed by Groveport Madison Local Schools with a 6.2% decline (about 377 students), according to the analysis. "In looking at our Pre-K and kindergarten enrollment for the 2020-2021 school year, they were lower than what was projected, Groveport Madison said in a statement. We're of the belief that many families held their younger children back last year due to concerns over COVID-19.  South-Western City Schools came in third with a 5% decline (about 1,130 students), according to the analysis. "We anticipate that we will see an increase in the number of kindergarten students enrolled in our district this fall following the pandemic year," South-Western said in a statement. Tied for fourth place with a 4.8% decline were Columbus City Schools with a decrease of 2,300 students, and Westerville City Schools, which dropped about 730 students. Not unlike school districts across the nation, we, too, have seen a decline in enrollment due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Columbus City Schools said in a statement. "As we look to returning to in-person learning five days a week for the 2021-2022 school year, we will connect with families in the community, including those who left the district, throughout the summer.  Columbus City Schools news:Columbus high schoolers may use COTA to get to school this fall due to bus driver shortage  Most other central Ohio schools also saw at least a slight enrollment drop in enrollment. In Licking County, Newark City Schools, for instance, had a decline of 5.3%, or about 340 students. The same holds true throughout the state. Cincinnati Public Schools, the third-largest district in Ohio, saw a decline of 0.006%, for example. The more dramatic drop was in Ohio's kindergarten enrollment, which fell by 8.38%, or roughly 13,000 students. The sharp drop was slightly less than the national drop in 44 states of 9.1%. Yet, there were some central Ohio school districts that experienced a slight enrollment increase. Enrollment in Southwest Licking School District in Licking County grew by 5.4% (about 220 students), and Big Walnut Local School District in Delaware saw a 3.5% increase (about 130 students). Olentangy City Schools also increased by 2.2% (about 470 students), and Worthington City Schools had a 1% enrollment jump (about 100 students). White families' decisions seemed especially swayed by whether their child's public school offered in-person learning. States where more students were learning fully virtually tended to see larger declines among white students, the Chalkbeat/AP analysis found. Schools and COVID-19:Ohio schools for the blind, deaf pilot new COVID-19 testing program for children  Meanwhile, the nation's Hispanic student population saw the biggest shift from pre-pandemic trends, with enrollment dipping 1.5% last fall  a significant change, given that Hispanic students had been the country's fastest-growing student group. That could be tied to some of the disruptions Hispanic families experienced during the pandemic, including higher rates of job losses and higher rates of death and hospitalization from COVID-19. In Ohio, the dip in enrollment among Hispanics was 1.43% or about 1,600 students. The data underscores the complicated task ahead for schools trying to reconnect with families who left public schools for different reasons and ended up at a wide range of alternatives. "Districts might have this kind of 'different strokes for different folks' policy," said Richard Welsh, an associate professor at New York University who's studied student mobility. "'We're open for business and we're committed to in-person learning' could be more targeted to white families." On the flip side, Welsh said, "when you have districts that are giving tours about their safety protocols, those might be targeted more to their Black and Latinx families" whose communities were hit harder by the pandemic. Notably, it wasn't just the wealthy who left public schools. There were significant enrollment declines among students from low-income families and more affluent ones in the 35 states that provided data. Other families might continue to home-school their children  a practice that shot up in the few states that tracked it. In New York and Virginia, for example, home schooling grew by more than 50% this year, though it remained a relatively rare choice. Regardless, districts are now ramping up their recruitment efforts, hoping to build on the small upticks they saw over the last few months as in-person learning became more widely available. Researchers who track student demographics are also watching closely to see who returns. By the fall, it will be clearer if the enrollment shifts carry longer-term implications. This data was requested from each state education agency. The original request was for enrollment data by grade, race/ethnicity, and economic status. Many states did not provide all of the requested items. Some states provided district level data. The full archive of what was collected is included. Kalyn Belsha and Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee of Chalkbeat reported this story along with Annie Ma and Larry Fenn of the Associated Press. Melanie Asmar and Samuel Park of Chalkbeat contributed to this report, as did Enquirer investigations and enterprise editor Mark Wert, Dispatch researcher Julie Fulton contributed and Dispatch reporter Megan Henry.