Will Boris Johnson regret having made July 19 the end of his roadmap?
You read The Waugh Zone, our daily political briefing. Register now to receive it by email in the evening. Just when you think youve beaten him, Covid-19 somehow comes back stronger. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger but lacking the charm, this Terminator of a virus has an Ill be back threat that risks undoing all the hard work of the UKs superb vaccine rollout. The epic battle between vaccines and the virus certainly has high stakes. Perhaps that is why Boris Johnson sounded unusually nervous when announcing that he would effectively postpone Freedom Day for another four weeks. Instead of Midsummer Merrie Englands sun, there was a blizzard of frightening charts of planned hospitalizations. Fluffing his lines, the PM referred to adults in this business (he meant country) and then incorrectly stated that the new unlock date was July 29 (correcting later July 19). Polls show most of the public is relaxed about a delay, but Johnson is keenly aware that the unhappy 24% includes several of his own backbenchers, and it has shown. Nowhere was this more revealing than in his repeated assurances that Freedom Day Mk II was the real deal. He was fairly confident that July 19 would be the end date (he also said end date). June 21 was always a not before date, when it was much firmer, he suggested. It wasnt a defeat for containment skeptics, it was a victory, he seemed to imply. This rotation may or may not work on Tory MPs, but it could put the PM in a corner for the first time in months. Since he bowed to Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallances plan for a cautious roadmap, he has been able to fall back on their insistence that all four tests be satisfied (the new variant test was particularly nifty) and that data does not date will guide its decisions. But now, with the discussions of terminals and fixed deadlines, it seems that dates and not data are the new approach. Steve Baker, Mark Harper and Sir Charles Walker, who will likely vote against the postponement, have much more concrete evidence of an abuse of faith should the July 19 date slip again. Whitty and Vallance provided invaluable support to the Prime Minister during the press conference. The chief medical officer in particular pointed out that even without the Indian variant, even reestablishing the unrestricted indoor mix of unrelated households would still lead to an increase in cases. He added that there was bound to come a time when deaths shifted from deaths averted to deaths delayed , as with the flu. Patrick Vallance even suggested that the lockdown beyond July 19 would be counterproductive. And he pleaded for this date containing Goldilocks calculation on the degree of heat or cold to prepare the roadmap porridge. Giving the over-18s their first shot and pushing the unlock closer to school holidays has certainly added sugar, as has the lifting of the cap on the number of weddings. However, for Keir Starmer, the speech of July 19 as the final date is the occasion of a Last Judgment on the competence of Johnson. If the vaccination program cant sufficiently flatten the peak of the Delta variant, it is sure to step up its own line of attack that Johnsons failure to stop flights from India is the real culprit. Already today, the Labor leader has toughened his rhetoric to say that it was a pathetic border policy which had postponed freedoms. Starmers clear goal is to drive a big wedge between the excellence of the NHS vaccine deployment and the broader government failures. It is unclear whether it was the PMs desire to maintain post-Brexit trade talks with Narendra Modi that prompted his inaction, but the suggestion that he recklessly undermined both the NHS agenda and public sacrifices is toxic. Todays inability to offer additional financial support to businesses has also added additional political risk. Companies that were hanging on with their fingertips will now have to pay their share of the holiday bills, with no additional income to fund them. Add to that the already distraught self-employed workers and pro-business opposition could make inroads. Overseeing one wave of Covid is a misfortune, allowing two is starting to sound like neglect. But unleashing a third wave, wasting all the good work of your own vaccine success, might be viewed as unforgivable by an audience that has so far been incredibly lenient towards its prime minister.