How Safe Is A Top-Five Pick In The 2021 NBA Draft For The OKC Thunder?
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Karl-Anthony Towns holds a selfie stick with other top prospects before the ... [+] start of the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) Getty Images  The Oklahoma City Thunder have a great chance at landing a top-five pick in the 2021 NBA Draft as they look to select a franchise-altering talent. While this class appears to have some of the most top-level talent of any in the past few years, history tells us that the Thunder should be cautious. You would think that OKC drafting in the top five would at least land them a long-term starter, that may not be the case. According to Mike Schmitz of ESPN, only one draft class in the past twenty years has produced four All-Stars in the top five picks. This means that unless the 2021 class makes history, one of these five players will under-perform their expectation based on where they are taken. Schmitz also mentioned that there have been only six drafts with three or more All-Stars selected in the top five since 2000, meaning that if history repeats itself, at least two of these top-five prospects will never become All-Stars. Additionally, the data shows that nearly every NBA MVP was taken near the top of their respective draft, further proving that the higher your pick, the better your odds of landing a superstar. However, theres been many guys in the top-five of their draft classes that didn't pan out, like Dragan Bender, Mario Hezonja, Jabari Parker, Dante Exum, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams and Hasheem Thabeet. With this in mind, the Thunder have an 11.5 percent chance at landing the top overal pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Their worst-case scenario would be landing the eighth overall pick, with that only having a small percent chance of happening. However, if their own pick does fall to No. 8, that would mean they would obtain the Houston Rockets pick at No. 5 based on the how the draft lottery is set up. That pick overall has a 47.9 percent chance of being conveyed to Oklahoma City. The Thunder will have a 97.6 percent chance of their own pick falling within the top seven. Final draft positioning will be decided on June 22. From there, we will have to wait and see who becomes an NBA All-Star in that top five regardless of if the Oklahoma City Thunder get a pick in that range.