Can We Change The Housing Debate Before Its Too Late?
Time Management And School Deadlines. Shocked Afro Elementary Student Girl Pointing Finger At Clock ... [+] Sitting At Laptop On Yellow Background. getty  Ive posted about the hyperbolic response on Twitter to the notion that the term landlord should be replaced with the term housing provider; Twitter thought it should be replaced with parasite. Ive been asked since (and many times before), whats the message that could change peoples minds about people who make a living providing housing? I dont have a solid answer, but I do know how we can find it. And we need to find the answer very soon. First of all, many if not most Americans view rental housing as a residual business; being a landlord means buying property with cash and getting passive income from renting it. Whats there to do? people ask, other than collect the rent in your mailbox each month. And with electronic payments a trip to the bank isnt even necessary. This notion feeds resentment, and that resentment makes it easy to pass legislation that tips the business relationship between seller and buyer toward the buyer with added risks and costs for the seller that end up being paid by the consumer in the long run. The second problem is that people who own rental property dont understand this. For some reason, many in the community of housing providers believe that making rational arguments to public officials or suing them will somehow change the dynamic. It will not. In fact the more aggressive and effective lobbying and legal efforts become, the more it proves in the minds of the public that people who own and rent their property are wealthy enough to rig the system. So today, for example, politicians blithely ban eviction, most people accept this with a shrug. Then housing providers begin arguments that range from using their small size and incomes to defending their private property rights. But remember the Twitter feed; these are parasites, bad actors. Why would an elected official do anything to favor bad actors with voters who widely and deeply hold the view that landlords will not only survive the pandemic, but likely profit from it somehow. Whats been taxing on my mental health is the fact that nobody seems to be willing to invest in deeper research into why people think the way they do and how they might be persuaded to not just think otherwise but truly understand that rental housing is largely not a residual business at all but a marginal one, dependent on managing an asset in a way that generates enough income to match or exceed costs. So if I had the financial resources heres where Id invest them. Quantitative public opinion research  We need a comprehensive survey with a large enough sample size and wide enough distribution of participants geographically, demographically, and politically to make confident statements about what the public truly thinks about housing in general and rental housing in particular. My hypothesis, for example, is that people are highly likely to agree that prices of consumer products follow scarcity and abundance; if there are a lot of bananas they will be cheap, if they are scare theyll be expensive. My guess is people dont believe this about housing and some other things like prescription drugs. Qualitative research  Next Id try to get a representative sample of survey participants into day long focus groups with well facilitated discussions of what they think about housing and why. These discussions would include explanations of balance sheets, pro formas, and stories from real people in the business. Community engagement  Once I had this data, Id work with professionals to design persuasive messages from persuasive messengers. When I worked on school bond campaigns, often the best messenger was a fireman talking about how the bond measure would improve safety in an elementary school down the block. This engagement campaign would require town hall meetings, targeted social media, and and lots of patience. The roll out of the campaign would have to be like any political and marketing campaign and be sustained for months. Testing the message  Then wed have to go back into the field again and ask the same questions we asked before. Today, in a town hall youll here this: We have a housing crisis! If elected, what will you do to create more affordable housing?  Tomorrow, if my plan worked, youd here: Housing prices are going up because were not allowing housing to be built fast enough. If elected what will you do to allow more housing supply?  Fanciful. Maybe. But 60 years ago, tobacco companies were using doctors to help market their products. Today smoking prevalence is as low as its ever been and smoking inside is frowned on, even by smokers. When the effort began to get women the right to vote in the 1860s it was deemed impossible. And 60 years ago most states had laws that made homosexuality illegal. Today marriage between two people of the same sex is commonly accepted. And more cynically, if I told you 30 years ago that youd be reading this on a handheld device with a camera, global positioning technology, and access to a network that would allow you to order lunch delivered, youd have said I was stoned. Oh yeah, thats legal and profitable in many states too. Lobbying and legal challenges will fail. So will bizarre wars on single-family zoning and efforts to protect mom and pop landlords. What is happening in the country is a growing belief that housing should be free because it is a right. If this takes hold it will be disastrous for our country. It would seem that 60 years is a long time. The good news is that it would take more like 6 to carry out my plan, because I think people simply dont understand how rental housing works. If they did, the might still get annoyed when they paid rent, but theyd understand they are getting value in the exchange of their money for housing  just like when they buy groceries, gas, or concert tickets. Youll likely be dead by the time free housing is finally undone, decades from now as a reform when people realize that free housing is free at all, it is just state rationed housing; high prices will be replaced by long waits. Unlikely. Developers and housing providers are survivors, and even in a market constrained with draconian regulation, theyll find a way to survive and even thrive. Theyre on the assent, getting most of what they want. When I look at both groups, I feel like Im with them in the big shopping cart at the beginning of one of the Jack Ass movies. I keep asking myself, Why are we doing this again?