Will growing primary opposition hurt or help Gov. Abbott?
In his first run for governor in 2014, Greg Abbott garnered just over 91% of the Republican primary vote. In his re-election bid in 2018, his primary vote was just over 90%. That will not be the case on March 1. Abbotts re-election prospects look secure at the moment, but Republicans will be choosing this time from a field with more than token opposition. Since his campaign announcement in May, former state Sen. Don Huffines has leveled criticism of Abbotts COVID-19 response and border and tax policies. He promises a path to eliminate property taxes completely, and he suggests additional border wall construction paid for by Texans through state and private funding. The build-our-own-wall idea apparently appealed to the Abbott camp to such a degree that they adopted it. Now comes former Florida Rep. Allen West, fresh off a year as chairman of the Texas Republican Party. When he announced his resignation a month ago, hinting at other pursuits, some suggested a run for Texas 32nd Congressional District, where Democrat Colin Allred just won his second narrow victory. But West does not seek a return to the halls of Congress; he wants to walk the halls of the Governors Mansion. So too does internet cowboy pundit Chad Prather, whose hundreds of thousands of followers across various social media platforms make him impossible to ignore. But while pop-culture stardom may not translate to appreciable primary votes, the Huffines and West fan bases surely will. If Abbotts challengers have similar criticisms  that he was too slow to reopen the state and that there are conservative priorities left unrealized  even considerable voter discontent winds up divided among multiple alternative candidates, making it harder for any of them to outdistance Abbott. But there is another scenario. It features Abbotts rivals hammering him so effectively for eight months that he is held below 50% on March 1, triggering a runoff against whoever finishes second. This resembles the Ted Cruz U.S. Senate path to victory following Kay Bailey Hutchisons retirement. A crowded 2012 U.S. Senate primary field kept presumed heir David Dewhurst below 50%, allowing Cruz to inherit the entirety of the non-Dewhurst vote for a 13-point win. But Dewhurst was not an incumbent, and Cruz brought specific attributes that Republican voters clearly craved. Dislodging Abbott invokes the prospect of the unavoidable Rule of Primaries: Challengers simply will not succeed unless there is a broad desire to fire the incumbent. Hutchison tasted this after losing by more than 20 points in her challenge to Gov. Rick Perry in 2010. That was not a rebuke of one of the most popular politicians in Texas history; it was a statement of satisfaction with Perry in that job. So, the most important thing for Huffines is not whether his ideas draw praise. The most important thing for West is not the affection conservatives have long expressed for his service at many levels. The most important thing is whether these men can create a mood among voters that Greg Abbott needs to be returned to private life. For his part, West told me this week that he is not running against anyone, Im running for something.  Well, that wont cut it. The March primary will be a referendum on Abbott. If GOP voters are pleased with him, he will win. His base coat of conservative voter satisfaction is bolstered lately by this years legislative achievements like constitutional carry and the heartbeat bill, and that badge of distinction called the Trump endorsement. That is no guarantee of smooth sailing eight months from now. Abbott voters still want steadfast election security measures and protections for female athletes from biological male competition  priorities for many conservatives that a supposedly Republican Legislature was not able to achieve within the allotted time. If the special session does not deliver, challengers will have fresh complaints, which could be doused with more fuel if we come anywhere close to another power grid failure this summer or next winter. Huffines is a principled conservative who has made creditable inroads in a short time. West is a hero across the conservative landscape. Prather is a sharp and engaging web presence who has actually attracted serious attention from voters. None of those distinctions will matter if Abbott maintains his current popularity, a whopping 77% among Republican voters in a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Every primary challenger at every level should always know: You can bring a rich package to the table, but if there is an incumbent to be dislodged, voters will not hand you a win unless you have made the case for change. Mark Davis is a radio host and frequent contributor to The Dallas Morning News. The Mark Davis Show airs from 7 to 10 a.m. weekdays at 660amtheanswer.com. Send a letter to the editor and you just might get published.