Can Keir Starmer Bounce Back From A Batley And Spen By-Election Loss?
Christopher Furlong via Getty Images  On the very day that Matt Hancock was fighting to save his political career in Westminster, Labours battle to hang onto one of its own parliamentary seats was being played out nearly 200 miles north in West Yorkshire. Amid ugly, unsettling scenes outside a mosque in Batley as worshippers left Friday prayers, the partys candidate Kim Leadbeater was being harangued and chased by an anti-gay rights activist. The man, who had urged people to vote for George Galloway, was from Birmingham. Keir Starmer tweeted that the abuse Leadbeater faced was disgraceful and the best way to counter Galloways poisonous politics was to vote Labour in the Batley and Spen by-election next Thursday. But amid polls putting the Tories in first place, Galloway second and Leadbeater third, the incident proved that Starmer is still struggling with problems in his partys backyard at precisely the moment when Boris Johnsons government needs a robust opposition more than ever. And as much as Labour insiders mock Galloways grand claim that his entire campaign objective is to unseat Starmer as leader, there is now intense debate within the party about just what happens after Batley. Among the questions swirling on Labour MPs WhatsApps are these. The unease among both Labour backbenchers and frontbenchers has been palpable since May 6, when the party lost not just the symbolic by-election in Hartlepool but also lost councils and council seats in once-reliably Red areas in the north and midlands. Hartlepool was meant to be a wake-up call for the Labour leader, but some believe hes instead just hit the snooze button, with a lack of grip that his critics say defines his leadership. Allies counter that in the past week some key figures have left their roles, not least political director Jenny Chapman, chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and communications director Ben Nunn. Despite worries about a damaging hiatus, none of their replacements are expected to be appointed before the Batley and Spen election. One insider said it was unclear whether the power vacuum was accidental or deliberate, but the new team will be able to credibly claim they are a break with the past. What is striking is that, unlike Hartlepool, almost everyone within the party appears to have written off Batley and Spen. Leadbeater, sister of former MP the late Jo Cox, is seen as a superb candidate, the only one born and bred in the seat. There has been a huge influx of party activists trying to help (in Hartlepool, the campaign office had one sheet of A2 paper for signed up volunteers, but Batley has a whole wall of them). Yet the mood is of grim fatalism. Unlike in Hartlepool, theres just seems to be an acceptance this time that we should believe what were seeing in Batley, which is if people are not talking to you and lifelong voters are saying theyre not going to vote for you, then you accept youve lost it, one MP says. In what feels like a dry-run of the arguments to be deployed once the result comes in, some argue that Galloways candidacy actually creates the alibi that this is a very particular set of circumstances, and not a generic Red Wall problem as with Hartlepool. One shadow cabinet minister says the white working class vote appears to be holding up in some places, but the Asian vote has been either tempted by Galloway or will stay at home. Some believe the by-election may have been lost for Labour the moment that Paul Halloran, the independent Heavy Woollen District candidate who polled 6,000 votes in 2019, decided not to stand. His support is expected to almost all go to the Tories. Add in Galloway eating into Labours majority too, and its a lethal cocktail. Weve gone from their vote divided in 2019 to our vote divide now, says one MP. Jeff J Mitchell via Getty Images George Galloway  Old hands also counsel another message likely to be heard after the count: that Batley has always been a marginal and not a safe seat, especially as the Tories held it from 1983 to 1997. Yet its precisely for that reason that some are complaining bitterly that defeat would be a self-inflicted wound. Former MP Tracy Brabin, who triggered the contest after her successful election as the new metro mayor for West Yorkshire, should never have been allowed to quit, several sources said. Unlike in Hartlepool where Teesside mayor Ben Houchen was an electoral asset, Brabin is not. She was already seen as an absentee MP, and now shes sodded off to Leeds, thats how some of our voters see it, one said. One former minister says: We had a saying under Blair and Brown: never inflict an unnecessary election on the voters. Tracy got the nod from Corbyn to go for it, but Keir could have stopped it if people around him had spotted the danger. What that really reflects is that Labours corporate memory is deteriorating, 11 years into opposition. Not knowing what you dont know is the problem. And thats more serious than people think. Its not so much about judgement as experience. Another MP adds: So many MPs and members of the NEC said to her [Jenny Chapman] Do not allow this. Serve out your term and then leave. She wasnt alive to the catastrophe, just as she didnt think we would lose Hartlepool. The vast majority of people on the doorstep quite like Kim, they tell us shes a nice woman. But its Keir that they are unsure about. So Jennys genius has just resulted in a by election where Keir Starmers name is on the ballot. Theyve elevated the by-election to some fucking make or break thing. One former Corbyn staffer said that it was astonishing that the loss of Batley was seen as inevitable. No opposition leader has ever lost two by elections to the governing party. Jeremy had four defensive by-elections by the same point in his leadership and we won them all. You just think, my God, the double standards. Already a script for what Starmer should say after a defeat is being worked on, some insiders say. No MP wants a repeat of the shell-shocked TV clip he gave after the Hartlepool loss. He cant just say Im listening. He said that after Hartlepool. He has to say what hes going to do about it, one ally says. Several MPs and aides believe Starmers problems have been both organisational and political. The shake-up of the leaders office operation has been welcomed by the parliamentary Labour party (PLP), as has the appointment of Shabana Mahmood as national campaign coordinator and Conor McGinn as her deputy. The pair this week instituted a daily 8am conference call (10am on Sundays, after Marr) with all frontbench advisers and the leaders team. They run through whats moving in the media and parliament and the party. Everyone is expected to arrive with ideas, but some policy advisers have been given a rude awakening, not least as McGinns blunt and direct style makes clear rapid improvements are needed. Weve been told we have to be relentless in the war of attrition against the government, hungrier than them, faster than them, more brutal than them, one MP says. Our mission every day should be to make some Tory somewhere wish theyd never been born today, another says. Only after that can we get onto our highfalutin political strategy for winning a general election. MPs hope the changes in organisation will ensure a smarter approach to both policy and communications. When Rachel Reeves made a presentation to the shadow cabinet in her new Treasury role, she mentioned the partys current biggest spending pledge was 15n for schools catch-up funding. But for some around the shadow cabinet, that was the first they had even heard of the promise. If we havent heard of it, how the hell do we expect the public to? on MP said. The pledge from shadow education secretary Kate Green, based on demands from former catch-up czar Kevan Collins, barely registered when it was dropped on the media the day after the late May bank holiday. We were like, OK, so weve done that then, great we have 15bn for schools, shame we didnt know about it, one frontbencher said. Some progress is being made, but it seems tortuous, some say. When the by-election team in Batley told the leaders office that crime and anti-social behaviour was a big issue on the doorstep and they needed a big intervention from Starmer on it, his office reacted. In the end, it was decided Labour would scrap the Tory plan for a new Royal Yacht and spend the 200m on fighting anti-social behaviour instead. Stefan Rousseau - PA Images via Getty Images Keir Starmer and former political director Jenny Chapman  The policy, a way of ridiculing Johnsons competence while saying crime was Labours priority, made the pages of the Daily Mail. It was spiky and painting in primary colours, one MP said. But the amount of effort it takes to get to the point of a single thing like that is astonishing. Hes detached from it because he only comes in at the end. Its like youre walking through treacle to make a small thing happen. Worse, there was no follow-up, it was just dropped into the pond and left. But its the need for Starmer to inject some politics, not just managerial ability, into his leadership that is the most common demand. One insider says the problem of a lack of definition for the leader stems from his slick leadership campaign in early 2020. They turned him into a bit of a blank sheet of paper onto which people could project what they wanted, left or right, they say. It was perfect for keeping everyone happy. But when you face the electorate, you have to pick some fights to let people know what you stand for. One MP says that Starmer needs a sense of urgency above everything. Theres a hesitancy that he has, which hes got to get rid of. His team tie themselves in knots, they worry a lot about whether something is the right fit for different audiences. We just want him to make an emotional connection with the voters. People want him to show leadership, say in his own words what he thinks. That will go a long way. He still doesnt understand the difference between a court of law and the court of public opinion and hasnt made the emotional leap from one to the other. In a court of law, you say something once, thats it. But with public opinion, you have to say it seven million times before even half of it is heard. A senior backbencher says the problem has been a lack of equals in his office. He doesnt have a peer to peer relationship with someone with the authority to just go and say right, get your shit together, you need to do this right now. The ones who have been close to him were in awe of him, they do think hes amazing, that hes intellectually their superior, and thats not a challenge to his brain. Its not like Blair with Jonathan Powell or Campbell and Mandelson, or Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. One former minister says: I dont doubt his determination, and his ability. Hes got the necessary ruthless streak, but has he got the judgment to know when to deploy it? Others believe that while the right staff in his office is crucial, its ultimately down to Starmer to lead and to define himself and his party. Part of the problem is he seems to think that you just need to hire the right person and somehow theyll make him a future prime minister. He doesnt seem to understand most of that is down to him. They need to know what his gut is telling him. He will acknowledge youre basically right, nod, and then somehow he just doesnt make it happen. And no one can understand what the hell thats about. Some people are more despairing than others, its like just make a fucking decision, man. Christopher Furlong via Getty Images Labour candidate for the Batley and Spen by-election Kim Leadbeater and Rachel Reeves  If Batley is indeed lost, Starmer will indeed have to make some decisions. Several figures on different wings of the party believe his leadership will inevitably come under question. The big question is what the tone will be after Batley, says one. If it is apologetic or introspective or anything like that, I think the clocks ticking. He needs to come out swinging on this somehow. We cant keep reacting to failure, explaining why weve lost. There needs to be a moment where were going to tell people how we win. And if we cant do that now after 14 months of his leadership, I dont know when were going to start. How he comes out of this now is going to shape whether Keir buys himself six months or 24 months. Under party rules, more than 40 MPs are needed to trigger any leadership challenge. Over the past week, there has been chatter among backbenchers that Dawn Butler was being lined up as a candidate who could get the backing of the 34-strong Socialist Campaign Group, as well as some disaffected Black and Asian MPs. The idea of some instant Butler challenge the day after Batley has been dismissed, not least by the Left. But perhaps more worrying for Starmer is the level of grumbling around those who have been desperate to make his leadership work. Some people are thinking, can this ever work and have become very down about it, one MP said. Theyre the people he needs to impress when he addresses the PLP after the defeat. He will have to move quite fast, have a really good summer and a really good conference. One senior party figure says a leadership challenge from the Left would be defeated easily by 80% to 20%. It could provide a sort of reset moment, in the way that the best thing that ever happened to Corbyn was MPs challenging him in 2016, they say. With disloyalty a toxic charge, Starmer allies are also confident that neither Lisa Nandy nor Angela Rayner would want to ruin any future leadership hopes of their own by exploiting any stalking horse challenge by the Left. Others believe a challenge would be a huge distraction and the focus should be on connecting with the public this summer, not Labour members. Starmers team have long planned a summer of meet-the-people events, and have been itching for Covid restrictions to lift to make the strategy workable. Starmer tested the water in Ipswich last week, meeting business leaders. While the Commons is still sitting until late July, the plan is for him to every Wednesday travel to a key seat, meet families in a pub or restaurant, then spend the next day in a workplace canteen or old peoples lunch club. Once parliament rises, he would do Q&A sessions regularly too with voters. But one Tory minister says the Batley by-election is proving that Starmer is the Tories biggest asset. His problem is, he fails the pub test, the minister says. With Tony Blair and with Boris, whether youre working class or whether you are posh, you could imagine them having a conversation with you, and that they enjoy the job. Starmers a bit like Gordon Brown or Theresa, they looked haggard, tired, grumpy, uncomfortable. Worst of all, he looks a bit aloof. A senior Starmer ally hits back: Well, the pubs arent bloody fully open so its a bit hard for him to pass or fail a pub test. Thats exactly why we think that once hes out and about, people will see the real Keir and like what they see. The [Piers Morgan] Life Stories [where Starmer talked about his family life and upbringing] was just the start.  JACOB KING via Getty Images Boris Johnson, sips a pint of beer at a pub in Wolverhampton  Another shadow cabinet source says: The biggest thing hes got going for him is that the majority of people in the majority of pubs dont know who he is. There is still a huge chunk of the population that hasnt made up their mind about Keir. Thats either because hes been so hidden away or theres been a sort of blandness that they dont have anything to make their mind up about. Some MPs are more sceptical. One warns that a listening tour wont work and that whats needed is a telling tour, telling the voters what he stands for. Hes going to use the summer tour as a reboot of his leadership, his own brand and the partys brand, they say. Its not the worst idea in the world but it wont work if its just a bit nicey, nicey and doesnt change the dial on what peoples fears of the Labour Party are, which is that we are the soft guys of British politics, we say yes to everyone and everything. There will be a summer campaign on workers rights, but some Starmer allies believe that a focus on crime and anti-social behaviour is the best way of uniting Labours fractured voting coalition of working class and middle class voters. The issue has cropped up repeatedly in Hartlepool and Batley and the May 6 elections and aides think Starmers unique background as a former Director of Public Prosecutions ought to be deployed. This is a guy who effectively locked up serious criminals and terrorists, but few of the public know that. one insider says. Weve got to tell them. Any summer tour may or may not register on the voters radar, but the party conference in Brighton in September is seen as Starmers first real chance to properly grab the publics attention. Efforts to ram home that the Corbyn era really is over may depend on what one NEC member refers to as the most important set of elections and no ones ever heard of. These are local constituency party delegate elections, the deadline for which is July 9. Some 40% of local parties will be holding Zoom meetings to pick the delegates who vote at the annual conference. Allied with more centrist trade union leaderships, the hope is that internal reforms or policy changes will be much easier. Some centrists believe that Starmers best hope of proving his party has changed would be to tear up its member-led leadership rules and return to an electoral college that restored MPs alongside unions and members. MPs represent millions of voters, whereas party members represent only themselves, allies say. The Left would be sure to react with fury. Its too late to mobilise such a radical reform for this autumn, and it may need Unite the union to elect centrist Gerard Coyne to have a chance. But there is chatter of a special conference next spring to carry it out. Although Starmer likes to talk about tackling anti-Semitism as defining his leadership, some MPs believe the public either dont know or or uninterested in the issue. A big bang change to water down members hold over the party leader would be more bold. There are however downsides, as one senior aide points out. Its a terrible dilemma. One of the big, most essential ways that Keir has to define himself is by changing the leadership rules to ensure that this great party never goes back to being run by cranks. But the problem hes got is as soon as he does that is he could face a challenge from the Right or competent centre. Its a total Catch-22. Everyone recognises that that if you remove the threat from the Left, it gives you the chance to govern. At the same time, it makes you massively vulnerable because suddenly people can challenge you without worrying about Richard Burgon ending up in charge. The main focus for Starmer will be his conference speech and themes. Conference is absolutely crucial now, a shadow cabinet minister says. He needs to set out what he believes in, what hes doing, his priorities for being Prime Minister, set out in an ambitious, bold, enthusiastic, passionate way in front of a live audience. One MP says: He needs some drama, a big moment to show what he stands for. He can show leadership by saying there are some people in my party who believe things the country will never accept and Im going to take them on. The country will understand that. Some believe he could grab the publics attention with a policy pledge, just as the Cameron-Osborne inheritance tax cut in 2007 gave the Tories definition, turning round months of poor poll ratings (which are now forgotten) and scaring Gordon Brown into postponing the election. It wasnt the policy itself, it was that they were actually saying what they stood for, one aide says. The key has got to be both a clean break with Corbyn and a positive vision of Britain, one frontbencher says. Nobody I talk to tells me you know what Labour has changed too much. And when I ask Tory MPs privately what they fear most, they say its if we got rid of the loonies they say. If we lose in Batley, and the expectation very much is we will, we have to get the PLP and the wider party to accept that without a big change things could get even worse than 2019, despite that election being absolutely catastrophic for us. Its a huge achievement that for the first time since Tony Blair we have a leader who passes the prime minister test. But the toxicity that there still is around the brand and the damage that has been done, its not going to be solved just by a guy who looks like he could stand outside Number 10, its got to be much more fundamental.  Dan Kitwood via Getty Images Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer,