How Trump's tariffs could bring a spike to gas pump prices and heating bills
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President ’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico could mean higher heating bills and prices at the pump.

After a monthlong pause on his tariff plans, Trump on Tuesday  on most imports from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tax on Canadian energy imports such as natural gas and oil. An administration official last month said the lower levy was meant to minimize disruptions in gasoline and home heating prices, but experts say Americans can still expect price increases.

"The great debate" is whether the producers or U.S. consumers will take the hit, according to Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates.

"Shorter-run effects on oil and gas prices ‘," according to the budget lab.

"Consumers should assume that, in the short run, the pain is going to be greater," Tedeschi said.

[](https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/money/2024/11/26/trumps-proposed-tariffs-could-impact-prices-on-these-goods-from-mexico-canada-china/76598774007/)

President ’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico could mean higher heating bills and prices at the pump. 

Regular U.S. gas at the pump cost  on Tuesday, according to AAA.  an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a D.C. think tank, said tariffs could add 20 to 30 cents per gallon on average in the near term.

Ziemba said certain regions like the Midwest, where refineries have been set up to work with heavier-grade Canadian crude, could take a bigger hit.

"The tariff cost will be split between the exporters, the U.S. refineries and the U.S. consumers," with those in the Midwest and Northeast "likely to be most affected," Ziemba said.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in northeastern states in particular are ringing alarms over the risk of increased energy costs.

Three members of Maine's Congressional delegation  "may raise prices on gasoline, energy, groceries and much more," noting Canada supplies the oil people in Maine rely on to heat their homes. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey also warned that gas and heating costs could "" on Massachusetts residents and businesses.

How soon will price hikes go into effect?
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Some companies have already warned that consumers should prepare for price hikes.

Irving Oil, a Canadian refiner that serves homes and businesses in northern New England,  tariffs will result in price increases for U.S. propane customers. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan also signed a bill that could lead to higher prices for propane.

"Import tariffs on Canada and Mexico could increase gas prices by up to 35 cents per gallon and heating costs by up to 10%, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy," Healey wrote in a statement.

Canada is the top crude oil producer in the United States. In 2023, Canada produced 930,000 barrels of crude oil, which accounts for approximately 25% of the U.S.'s total imports, according to the Energy Information Administration. More than half of these imports come from Mexico.

Imports from the two countries account for about a quarter of the oil U.S. refineries process into fuels like gasoline and heating oil, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

With those imports now subject to tariffs, the "great debate" is whether the producers or U.S. consumers will take the hit, according to Andy Lipow of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates.

"Import tariffs on Canada and Mexico could increase gas prices by up to 35 cents per gallon and heating costs by up to 10%, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy," Healey wrote in a statement.

Shorter-run effects on the economy
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Higher energy prices could have ripple effects on the broader U.S. economy, warned Tedeschi of the Budget Lab at Yale.

"Virtually everything in the economy takes some energy to produce," Tedeschi said. "So you can expect that the cost of anything would go up at least a little as a result of these energy increases."

The tariffs could also complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to cut rates .

"Even if it doesn’t necessarily make them hike interest rates, it will almost certainly make them more hesitant to cut interest rates this year," Tedeschi said.

[](https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/readers/2025/03/15/charlie-kirk-visit-shows-intelligent-life-at-ut-knoxville-letters/82405515007/)

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