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Oct 27

Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023

Adaptive Deep Reasoning: Triggering Deep Thinking When Needed

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in handling complex tasks through long-chain reasoning. However, the extensive reasoning steps involved can significantly increase computational costs, posing challenges for real-world deployment. Recent efforts have focused on optimizing reasoning efficiency by shortening the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning processes through various approaches, such as length-aware prompt engineering, supervised fine-tuning on CoT data with variable lengths, and reinforcement learning with length penalties. Although these methods effectively reduce reasoning length, they still necessitate an initial reasoning phase. More recent approaches have attempted to integrate long-chain and short-chain reasoning abilities into a single model, yet they still rely on manual control to toggle between short and long CoT. In this work, we propose a novel approach that autonomously switches between short and long reasoning chains based on problem complexity. Our method begins with supervised fine-tuning of the base model to equip both long-chain and short-chain reasoning abilities. We then employ reinforcement learning to further balance short and long CoT generation while maintaining accuracy through two key strategies: first, integrating reinforcement learning with a long-short adaptive group-wise reward strategy to assess prompt complexity and provide corresponding rewards; second, implementing a logit-based reasoning mode switching loss to optimize the model's initial token choice, thereby guiding the selection of the reasoning type. Evaluations on mathematical datasets demonstrate that our model can dynamically switch between long-chain and short-chain reasoning modes without substantially sacrificing performance. This advancement enhances the practicality of reasoning in large language models for real-world applications.

  • 6 authors
·
May 26

KARMA: Augmenting Embodied AI Agents with Long-and-short Term Memory Systems

Embodied AI agents responsible for executing interconnected, long-sequence household tasks often face difficulties with in-context memory, leading to inefficiencies and errors in task execution. To address this issue, we introduce KARMA, an innovative memory system that integrates long-term and short-term memory modules, enhancing large language models (LLMs) for planning in embodied agents through memory-augmented prompting. KARMA distinguishes between long-term and short-term memory, with long-term memory capturing comprehensive 3D scene graphs as representations of the environment, while short-term memory dynamically records changes in objects' positions and states. This dual-memory structure allows agents to retrieve relevant past scene experiences, thereby improving the accuracy and efficiency of task planning. Short-term memory employs strategies for effective and adaptive memory replacement, ensuring the retention of critical information while discarding less pertinent data. Compared to state-of-the-art embodied agents enhanced with memory, our memory-augmented embodied AI agent improves success rates by 1.3x and 2.3x in Composite Tasks and Complex Tasks within the AI2-THOR simulator, respectively, and enhances task execution efficiency by 3.4x and 62.7x. Furthermore, we demonstrate that KARMA's plug-and-play capability allows for seamless deployment on real-world robotic systems, such as mobile manipulation platforms.Through this plug-and-play memory system, KARMA significantly enhances the ability of embodied agents to generate coherent and contextually appropriate plans, making the execution of complex household tasks more efficient. The experimental videos from the work can be found at https://youtu.be/4BT7fnw9ehs. Our code is available at https://github.com/WZX0Swarm0Robotics/KARMA/tree/master.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 23, 2024

CoT-Valve: Length-Compressible Chain-of-Thought Tuning

Chain-of-Thought significantly enhances a model's reasoning capability, but it also comes with a considerable increase in inference costs due to long chains. With the observation that the reasoning path can be easily compressed under easy tasks but struggle on hard tasks, we explore the feasibility of elastically controlling the length of reasoning paths with only one model, thereby reducing the inference overhead of reasoning models dynamically based on task difficulty. We introduce a new tuning and inference strategy named CoT-Valve, designed to allow models to generate reasoning chains of varying lengths. To achieve this, we propose to identify a direction in the parameter space that, when manipulated, can effectively control the length of generated CoT. Moreover, we show that this property is valuable for compressing the reasoning chain. We construct datasets with chains from long to short for the same questions and explore two enhanced strategies for CoT-Valve: (1) a precise length-compressible CoT tuning method, and (2) a progressive chain length compression approach. Our experiments show that CoT-Valve successfully enables controllability and compressibility of the chain and shows better performance than the prompt-based control. We applied this method to QwQ-32B-Preview, reducing reasoning chains on GSM8K from 741 to 225 tokens with a minor performance drop (95.07% to 94.92%) and on AIME from 6827 to 4629 tokens, with only one additional incorrect answer.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 13 2

ElasticMoE: An Efficient Auto Scaling Method for Mixture-of-Experts Models

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models promise efficient scaling of large language models (LLMs) by activating only a small subset of experts per token, but their parallelized inference pipelines make elastic serving challenging. Existing strategies fall short: horizontal scaling provisions entire replicas of the current configuration, often tens to hundreds of accelerators, leading to coarse granularity, long provisioning delays, and costly overprovisioning. Vertical scaling offers finer adjustments but typically requires instance restarts, incurring downtime. These limitations make current approaches ill-suited for the bursty, short-lived traffic patterns common in cloud deployments. We present ElasticMoE, an elastic scaling framework for MoE LLMs that achieves fine-grained, low-latency, and zero-downtime scaling. ElasticMoE decouples inference execution from memory operations, enabling scaling steps to proceed concurrently with serving. An HBM Management Module (HMM) reuses weights and KV caches via zero-copy remapping, while high-bandwidth peer-to-peer transfers bring newly added accelerators online without interrupting service. A virtual memory based expert redistribution mechanism migrates MoE experts without costly buffer reallocations, reducing peak memory usage during expert parallelism reconfiguration. Our evaluation on Ascend NPUs with three popular MoE LLMs shows that ElasticMoE achieves up to 9x lower scale-up latency, up to 2x better throughput during scaling, and significantly improves SLO attainment compared to baselines. By enabling fine-grained, concurrent scaling with minimal disruption, ElasticMoE advances the practicality of deploying massive MoE LLMs in dynamic cloud environments.

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 2

Train Long, Think Short: Curriculum Learning for Efficient Reasoning

Recent work on enhancing the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has introduced explicit length control as a means of constraining computational cost while preserving accuracy. However, existing approaches rely on fixed-length training budgets, which do not take advantage of the natural progression from exploration to compression during learning. In this work, we propose a curriculum learning strategy for length-controlled reasoning using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our method starts with generous token budgets and gradually tightens them over training, encouraging models to first discover effective solution strategies and then distill them into more concise reasoning traces. We augment GRPO with a reward function that balances three signals: task correctness (via verifier feedback), length efficiency, and formatting adherence (via structural tags). Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, SVAMP, College Math, and GSM+ demonstrate that curriculum-based training consistently outperforms fixed-budget baselines at the same final budget, achieving higher accuracy and significantly improved token efficiency. We further ablate the impact of reward weighting and decay schedule design, showing that progressive constraint serves as a powerful inductive bias for training efficient reasoning models. Our code and checkpoints are released at: https://github.com/hammoudhasan/curriculum_grpo.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 12 2

Offline Guarded Safe Reinforcement Learning for Medical Treatment Optimization Strategies

When applying offline reinforcement learning (RL) in healthcare scenarios, the out-of-distribution (OOD) issues pose significant risks, as inappropriate generalization beyond clinical expertise can result in potentially harmful recommendations. While existing methods like conservative Q-learning (CQL) attempt to address the OOD issue, their effectiveness is limited by only constraining action selection by suppressing uncertain actions. This action-only regularization imitates clinician actions that prioritize short-term rewards, but it fails to regulate downstream state trajectories, thereby limiting the discovery of improved long-term treatment strategies. To safely improve policy beyond clinician recommendations while ensuring that state-action trajectories remain in-distribution, we propose Offline Guarded Safe Reinforcement Learning (OGSRL), a theoretically grounded model-based offline RL framework. OGSRL introduces a novel dual constraint mechanism for improving policy with reliability and safety. First, the OOD guardian is established to specify clinically validated regions for safe policy exploration. By constraining optimization within these regions, it enables the reliable exploration of treatment strategies that outperform clinician behavior by leveraging the full patient state history, without drifting into unsupported state-action trajectories. Second, we introduce a safety cost constraint that encodes medical knowledge about physiological safety boundaries, providing domain-specific safeguards even in areas where training data might contain potentially unsafe interventions. Notably, we provide theoretical guarantees on safety and near-optimality: policies that satisfy these constraints remain in safe and reliable regions and achieve performance close to the best possible policy supported by the data.

  • 6 authors
·
May 22

LooGLE: Can Long-Context Language Models Understand Long Contexts?

Large language models (LLMs), despite their impressive performance in various language tasks, are typically limited to processing texts within context-window size. This limitation has spurred significant research efforts to enhance LLMs' long-context understanding with high-quality long-sequence benchmarks. However, prior datasets in this regard suffer from shortcomings, such as short context length compared to the context window of modern LLMs; outdated documents that have data leakage problems; and an emphasis on short dependency tasks rather than long dependency tasks. In this paper, we present LooGLE, a Long Context Generic Language Evaluation benchmark for LLMs' long context understanding. LooGLE features relatively new documents post-2022, with over 24,000 tokens per document and 6,000 newly generated questions spanning diverse domains. Human annotators meticulously crafted more than 1,100 high-quality question-answer pairs to meet the long dependency requirements. These pairs underwent thorough cross-validation, yielding the most precise assessment of LLMs' long dependency capabilities. The evaluation of eight state-of-the-art LLMs on LooGLE revealed key findings: (i) commercial models outperformed open-sourced models; (ii) LLMs excelled in short dependency tasks like short question-answering and cloze tasks but struggled with more intricate long dependency tasks; (iii) in-context learning and chaining thoughts offered only marginal improvements; (iv) retrieval-based techniques demonstrated substantial benefits for short question-answering, while strategies for extending context window length had limited impact on long context understanding. As such, LooGLE not only provides a systematic and comprehensive evaluation schema on long-context LLMs, but also sheds light on future development of enhanced models towards "true long-context understanding".

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 7, 2023

CoReQA: Uncovering Potentials of Language Models in Code Repository Question Answering

Large language models that enhance software development tasks, such as code generation, code completion, and code question answering (QA), have been extensively studied in both academia and the industry. The models are integrated into popular intelligent IDEs like JetBrains and Cursor. Current benchmarks for evaluating models' code comprehension capabilities primarily focus on code generation or completion, often neglecting QA, which is a crucial aspect of understanding code. Existing code QA benchmarks are derived from code comments with predefined patterns (e.g., CodeQA) or focus on specific domains, such as education (e.g., CS1QA). These benchmarks fail to capture the real-world complexity of software engineering and user requirements for understanding code repositories. To address this gap, we introduce CoReQA, a benchmark for Code Repository-level question answering, constructed from GitHub issues and comments from 176 popular repositories across four programming languages. Since questions and answers may include both natural language and code snippets, traditional evaluation metrics such as BLEU are inadequate for assessing repository-level QA performance. Thus, we provide an LLM-as-a-judge framework to evaluate QA performance from five aspects. Based on CoReQA, we evaluate the performance of three baselines, including two short-context models using generic retrieval strategies and one long-context model that utilizes the entire repository context. Evaluation results show that state-of-the-art proprietary and long-context models struggle to address repository-level questions effectively. Our analysis highlights the limitations of language models in assisting developers in understanding repositories and suggests future directions for improving repository comprehension systems through effective context retrieval methodologies.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 6

VALL-E R: Robust and Efficient Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech Synthesis via Monotonic Alignment

With the help of discrete neural audio codecs, large language models (LLM) have increasingly been recognized as a promising methodology for zero-shot Text-to-Speech (TTS) synthesis. However, sampling based decoding strategies bring astonishing diversity to generation, but also pose robustness issues such as typos, omissions and repetition. In addition, the high sampling rate of audio also brings huge computational overhead to the inference process of autoregression. To address these issues, we propose VALL-E R, a robust and efficient zero-shot TTS system, building upon the foundation of VALL-E. Specifically, we introduce a phoneme monotonic alignment strategy to strengthen the connection between phonemes and acoustic sequence, ensuring a more precise alignment by constraining the acoustic tokens to match their associated phonemes. Furthermore, we employ a codec-merging approach to downsample the discrete codes in shallow quantization layer, thereby accelerating the decoding speed while preserving the high quality of speech output. Benefiting from these strategies, VALL-E R obtains controllablity over phonemes and demonstrates its strong robustness by approaching the WER of ground truth. In addition, it requires fewer autoregressive steps, with over 60% time reduction during inference. This research has the potential to be applied to meaningful projects, including the creation of speech for those affected by aphasia. Audio samples will be available at: https://aka.ms/valler.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 12, 2024

UniGoal: Towards Universal Zero-shot Goal-oriented Navigation

In this paper, we propose a general framework for universal zero-shot goal-oriented navigation. Existing zero-shot methods build inference framework upon large language models (LLM) for specific tasks, which differs a lot in overall pipeline and fails to generalize across different types of goal. Towards the aim of universal zero-shot navigation, we propose a uniform graph representation to unify different goals, including object category, instance image and text description. We also convert the observation of agent into an online maintained scene graph. With this consistent scene and goal representation, we preserve most structural information compared with pure text and are able to leverage LLM for explicit graph-based reasoning. Specifically, we conduct graph matching between the scene graph and goal graph at each time instant and propose different strategies to generate long-term goal of exploration according to different matching states. The agent first iteratively searches subgraph of goal when zero-matched. With partial matching, the agent then utilizes coordinate projection and anchor pair alignment to infer the goal location. Finally scene graph correction and goal verification are applied for perfect matching. We also present a blacklist mechanism to enable robust switch between stages. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks show that our UniGoal achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on three studied navigation tasks with a single model, even outperforming task-specific zero-shot methods and supervised universal methods.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 13 2

ZeroTuning: Unlocking the Initial Token's Power to Enhance Large Language Models Without Training

Recently, training-free methods for improving large language models (LLMs) have attracted growing interest, with token-level attention tuning emerging as a promising and interpretable direction. However, existing methods typically rely on auxiliary mechanisms to identify important or irrelevant task-specific tokens, introducing potential bias and limiting applicability. In this paper, we uncover a surprising and elegant alternative: the semantically empty initial token is a powerful and underexplored control point for optimizing model behavior. Through theoretical analysis, we show that tuning the initial token's attention sharpens or flattens the attention distribution over subsequent tokens, and its role as an attention sink amplifies this effect. Empirically, we find that: (1) tuning its attention improves LLM performance more effectively than tuning other task-specific tokens; (2) the effect follows a consistent trend across layers, with earlier layers having greater impact, but varies across attention heads, with different heads showing distinct preferences in how they attend to this token. Based on these findings, we propose ZeroTuning, a training-free approach that improves LLM performance by applying head-specific attention adjustments to this special token. Despite tuning only one token, ZeroTuning achieves higher performance on text classification, multiple-choice, and multi-turn conversation tasks across models such as Llama, Qwen, and DeepSeek. For example, ZeroTuning improves Llama-3.1-8B by 11.71% on classification, 2.64% on QA tasks, and raises its multi-turn score from 7.804 to 7.966. The method is also robust to limited resources, few-shot settings, long contexts, quantization, decoding strategies, and prompt variations. Our work sheds light on a previously overlooked control point in LLMs, offering new insights into both inference-time tuning and model interpretability.

  • 4 authors
·
May 16