Daily Papers

This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or discharge) and exogenous factors (e.g., precipitation history and forecast reports). Unlike conventional forecasting, the proposed model, AquaCast, captures both inter-variable and temporal dependencies across all inputs, while focusing forecast solely on endogenous variables. Exogenous inputs are fused via an embedding layer, eliminating the need to forecast them and enabling the model to attend to their short-term influences more effectively. We evaluate our approach on the LausanneCity dataset, which includes measurements from four urban drainage sensors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance when using only endogenous variables. Performance also improves with the inclusion of exogenous variables and forecast reports. To assess generalization and scalability, we additionally test the model on three large-scale synthesized datasets, generated from MeteoSwiss records, the Lorenz Attractors model, and the Random Fields model, each representing a different level of temporal complexity across 100 nodes. The results confirm that our model consistently outperforms existing baselines and maintains a robust and accurate forecast across both real and synthetic datasets.

Neural populations exhibit latent dynamical structures that drive time-evolving spiking activities, motivating the search for models that capture both intrinsic network dynamics and external unobserved influences. In this work, we introduce LangevinFlow, a sequential Variational Auto-Encoder where the time evolution of latent variables is governed by the underdamped Langevin equation. Our approach incorporates physical priors -- such as inertia, damping, a learned potential function, and stochastic forces -- to represent both autonomous and non-autonomous processes in neural systems. Crucially, the potential function is parameterized as a network of locally coupled oscillators, biasing the model toward oscillatory and flow-like behaviors observed in biological neural populations. Our model features a recurrent encoder, a one-layer Transformer decoder, and Langevin dynamics in the latent space. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic neural populations generated by a Lorenz attractor, closely matching ground-truth firing rates. On the Neural Latents Benchmark (NLB), the model achieves superior held-out neuron likelihoods (bits per spike) and forward prediction accuracy across four challenging datasets. It also matches or surpasses alternative methods in decoding behavioral metrics such as hand velocity. Overall, this work introduces a flexible, physics-inspired, high-performing framework for modeling complex neural population dynamics and their unobserved influences.

The Wilson-Cowan model for metapopulation, a Neural Mass Network Model, treats different subcortical regions of the brain as connected nodes, with connections representing various types of structural, functional, or effective neuronal connectivity between these regions. Each region comprises interacting populations of excitatory and inhibitory cells, consistent with the standard Wilson-Cowan model. By incorporating stable attractors into such a metapopulation model's dynamics, we transform it into a learning algorithm capable of achieving high image and text classification accuracy. We test it on MNIST and Fashion MNIST, in combination with convolutional neural networks, on CIFAR-10 and TF-FLOWERS, and, in combination with a transformer architecture (BERT), on IMDB, always showing high classification accuracy. These numerical evaluations illustrate that minimal modifications to the Wilson-Cowan model for metapopulation can reveal unique and previously unobserved dynamics.

Dynamical systems (DS) theory is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS separated by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and R\"ossler systems, AL-RNNs discover, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Chaotic dynamical systems (DS) are ubiquitous in nature and society. Often we are interested in reconstructing such systems from observed time series for prediction or mechanistic insight, where by reconstruction we mean learning geometrical and invariant temporal properties of the system in question (like attractors). However, training reconstruction algorithms like recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on such systems by gradient-descent based techniques faces severe challenges. This is mainly due to exploding gradients caused by the exponential divergence of trajectories in chaotic systems. Moreover, for (scientific) interpretability we wish to have as low dimensional reconstructions as possible, preferably in a model which is mathematically tractable. Here we report that a surprisingly simple modification of teacher forcing leads to provably strictly all-time bounded gradients in training on chaotic systems, and, when paired with a simple architectural rearrangement of a tractable RNN design, piecewise-linear RNNs (PLRNNs), allows for faithful reconstruction in spaces of at most the dimensionality of the observed system. We show on several DS that with these amendments we can reconstruct DS better than current SOTA algorithms, in much lower dimensions. Performance differences were particularly compelling on real world data with which most other methods severely struggled. This work thus led to a simple yet powerful DS reconstruction algorithm which is highly interpretable at the same time.

In this study, we propose a multi branched network approach to predict the dynamics of a physics attractor characterized by intricate and chaotic behavior. We introduce a unique neural network architecture comprised of Radial Basis Function (RBF) layers combined with an attention mechanism designed to effectively capture nonlinear inter-dependencies inherent in the attractor's temporal evolution. Our results demonstrate successful prediction of the attractor's trajectory across 100 predictions made using a real-world dataset of 36,700 time-series observations encompassing approximately 28 minutes of activity. To further illustrate the performance of our proposed technique, we provide comprehensive visualizations depicting the attractor's original and predicted behaviors alongside quantitative measures comparing observed versus estimated outcomes. Overall, this work showcases the potential of advanced machine learning algorithms in elucidating hidden structures in complex physical systems while offering practical applications in various domains requiring accurate short-term forecasting capabilities.

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of 2 times 10^4 chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

We put forward the dynamical study of a novel higher-order small network of Chialvo neurons arranged in a ring-star topology, with the neurons interacting via linear diffusive couplings. This model is perceived to imitate the nonlinear dynamical properties exhibited by a realistic nervous system where the neurons transfer information through higher-order multi-body interactions. We first analyze our model using the tools from nonlinear dynamics literature: fixed point analysis, Jacobian matrix, and bifurcation patterns. We observe the coexistence of chaotic attractors, and also an intriguing route to chaos starting from a fixed point, to period-doubling, to cyclic quasiperiodic closed invariant curves, to ultimately chaos. We numerically observe the existence of codimension-1 bifurcation patterns: saddle-node, period-doubling, and Neimark Sacker. We also qualitatively study the typical phase portraits of the system and numerically quantify chaos and complexity using the 0-1 test and sample entropy measure respectively. Finally, we study the collective behavior of the neurons in terms of two synchronization measures: the cross-correlation coefficient, and the Kuramoto order parameter.

We propose a novel nonlinear bidirectionally coupled heterogeneous chain network whose dynamics evolve in discrete time. The backbone of the model is a pair of popular map-based neuron models, the Chialvo and the Rulkov maps. This model is assumed to proximate the intricate dynamical properties of neurons in the widely complex nervous system. The model is first realized via various nonlinear analysis techniques: fixed point analysis, phase portraits, Jacobian matrix, and bifurcation diagrams. We observe the coexistence of chaotic and period-4 attractors. Various codimension-1 and -2 patterns for example saddle-node, period-doubling, Neimark-Sacker, double Neimark-Sacker, flip- and fold-Neimark Sacker, and 1:1 and 1:2 resonance are also explored. Furthermore, the study employs two synchronization measures to quantify how the oscillators in the network behave in tandem with each other over a long number of iterations. Finally, a time series analysis of the model is performed to investigate its complexity in terms of sample entropy.

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Neural networks transform high-dimensional data into compact, structured representations, often modeled as elements of a lower dimensional latent space. In this paper, we present an alternative interpretation of neural models as dynamical systems acting on the latent manifold. Specifically, we show that autoencoder models implicitly define a latent vector field on the manifold, derived by iteratively applying the encoding-decoding map, without any additional training. We observe that standard training procedures introduce inductive biases that lead to the emergence of attractor points within this vector field. Drawing on this insight, we propose to leverage the vector field as a representation for the network, providing a novel tool to analyze the properties of the model and the data. This representation enables to: (i) analyze the generalization and memorization regimes of neural models, even throughout training; (ii) extract prior knowledge encoded in the network's parameters from the attractors, without requiring any input data; (iii) identify out-of-distribution samples from their trajectories in the vector field. We further validate our approach on vision foundation models, showcasing the applicability and effectiveness of our method in real-world scenarios.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

Hyperbolic neural networks have shown great potential for modeling complex data. However, existing hyperbolic networks are not completely hyperbolic, as they encode features in a hyperbolic space yet formalize most of their operations in the tangent space (a Euclidean subspace) at the origin of the hyperbolic space. This hybrid method greatly limits the modeling ability of networks. In this paper, we propose a fully hyperbolic framework to build hyperbolic networks based on the Lorentz model by adapting the Lorentz transformations (including boost and rotation) to formalize essential operations of neural networks. Moreover, we also prove that linear transformation in tangent spaces used by existing hyperbolic networks is a relaxation of the Lorentz rotation and does not include the boost, implicitly limiting the capabilities of existing hyperbolic networks. The experimental results on four NLP tasks show that our method has better performance for building both shallow and deep networks. Our code will be released to facilitate follow-up research.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

We examine the geometry of neural network training using the Jacobian of trained network parameters with respect to their initial values. Our analysis reveals low-dimensional structure in the training process which is dependent on the input data but largely independent of the labels. We find that the singular value spectrum of the Jacobian matrix consists of three distinctive regions: a "chaotic" region of values orders of magnitude greater than one, a large "bulk" region of values extremely close to one, and a "stable" region of values less than one. Along each bulk direction, the left and right singular vectors are nearly identical, indicating that perturbations to the initialization are carried through training almost unchanged. These perturbations have virtually no effect on the network's output in-distribution, yet do have an effect far out-of-distribution. While the Jacobian applies only locally around a single initialization, we find substantial overlap in bulk subspaces for different random seeds. Our code is available at https://github.com/EleutherAI/training-jacobian

This paper discusses a simple and explicit toy-model example of the categorical Hopfield equations introduced in previous work of Manin and the author. These describe dynamical assignments of resources to networks, where resources are objects in unital symmetric monoidal categories and assignments are realized by summing functors. The special case discussed here is based on computational resources (computational models of neurons) as objects in a category of DNNs, with a simple choice of the endofunctors defining the Hopfield equations that reproduce the usual updating of the weights in DNNs by gradient descent.

Partial Differential Equations are foundational in modeling science and natural systems such as fluid dynamics and weather forecasting. The Latent Evolution of PDEs method is designed to address the computational intensity of classical and deep learning-based PDE solvers by proposing a scalable and efficient alternative. To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of LE-PDE, we incorporate the Mamba model, an advanced machine learning model known for its predictive efficiency and robustness in handling complex dynamic systems with a progressive learning strategy. The LE-PDE was tested on several benchmark problems. The method demonstrated a marked reduction in computational time compared to traditional solvers and standalone deep learning models while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system behavior over time. Our method doubles the inference speed compared to the LE-PDE while retaining the same level of parameter efficiency, making it well-suited for scenarios requiring long-term predictions.

Prior studies on the emergence in large models have primarily focused on how the functional capabilities of large language models (LLMs) scale with model size. Our research, however, transcends this traditional paradigm, aiming to deepen our understanding of the emergence within LLMs by placing a special emphasis not just on the model size but more significantly on the complex behavior of neuron interactions during the training process. By introducing the concepts of "self-organization" and "multifractal analysis," we explore how neuron interactions dynamically evolve during training, leading to "emergence," mirroring the phenomenon in natural systems where simple micro-level interactions give rise to complex macro-level behaviors. To quantitatively analyze the continuously evolving interactions among neurons in large models during training, we propose the Neuron-based Multifractal Analysis (NeuroMFA). Utilizing NeuroMFA, we conduct a comprehensive examination of the emergent behavior in LLMs through the lens of both model size and training process, paving new avenues for research into the emergence in large models.

Price responsiveness is a major feature of end use customers (EUCs) that participate in demand response (DR) programs, and has been conventionally modeled with static demand functions, which take the electricity price as the input and the aggregate energy consumption as the output. This, however, neglects the inherent temporal correlation of the EUC behaviors, and may result in large errors when predicting the actual responses of EUCs in real-time pricing (RTP) programs. In this paper, we propose a dynamical DR model so as to capture the temporal behavior of the EUCs. The states in the proposed dynamical DR model can be explicitly chosen, in which case the model can be represented by a linear function or a multi-layer feedforward neural network, or implicitly chosen, in which case the model can be represented by a recurrent neural network or a long short-term memory unit network. In both cases, the dynamical DR model can be learned from historical price and energy consumption data. Numerical simulation illustrated how the states are chosen and also showed the proposed dynamical DR model significantly outperforms the static ones.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

As artificial intelligence models have exploded in scale and capability, understanding of their internal mechanisms remains a critical challenge. Inspired by the success of dynamical systems approaches in neuroscience, here we propose a novel framework for studying computations in deep learning systems. We focus on the residual stream (RS) in transformer models, conceptualizing it as a dynamical system evolving across layers. We find that activations of individual RS units exhibit strong continuity across layers, despite the RS being a non-privileged basis. Activations in the RS accelerate and grow denser over layers, while individual units trace unstable periodic orbits. In reduced-dimensional spaces, the RS follows a curved trajectory with attractor-like dynamics in the lower layers. These insights bridge dynamical systems theory and mechanistic interpretability, establishing a foundation for a "neuroscience of AI" that combines theoretical rigor with large-scale data analysis to advance our understanding of modern neural networks.

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/{URL}.

We study the one-dimensional nonlocal Kirchhoff type bifurcation problem related to logistic equation of population dynamics. We establish the precise asymptotic formulas for bifurcation curve lambda = lambda(alpha) as alpha to infty in L^2-framework, where alpha:= Vert u_lambda Vert_2.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a popular formulation to train generative models for complex high dimensional data. The standard method for training GANs involves a gradient descent-ascent (GDA) procedure on a minimax optimization problem. This procedure is hard to analyze in general due to the nonlinear nature of the dynamics. We study the local dynamics of GDA for training a GAN with a kernel-based discriminator. This convergence analysis is based on a linearization of a non-linear dynamical system that describes the GDA iterations, under an isolated points model assumption from [Becker et al. 2022]. Our analysis brings out the effect of the learning rates, regularization, and the bandwidth of the kernel discriminator, on the local convergence rate of GDA. Importantly, we show phase transitions that indicate when the system converges, oscillates, or diverges. We also provide numerical simulations that verify our claims.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

The Lottery Ticket hypothesis proposes that ideal, sparse subnetworks, called lottery tickets, exist in untrained dense neural networks. The Early Bird hypothesis proposes an efficient algorithm to find these winning lottery tickets in convolutional neural networks, using the novel concept of distance between subnetworks to detect convergence in the subnetworks of a model. However, this approach overlooks unchanging groups of unimportant neurons near the search's end. We proposes WORM, a method that exploits these static groups by truncating their gradients, forcing the model to rely on other neurons. Experiments show WORM achieves faster ticket identification during training on convolutional neural networks, despite the additional computational overhead, when compared to EarlyBird search. Additionally, WORM-pruned models lose less accuracy during pruning and recover accuracy faster, improving the robustness of a given model. Furthermore, WORM is also able to generalize the Early Bird hypothesis reasonably well to larger models, such as transformers, displaying its flexibility to adapt to more complex architectures.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling framework grounded in phase space dynamics, where a phase space is defined as {an augmented space encompassing both position and velocity.} Leveraging insights from Stochastic Optimal Control, we construct a path measure in the phase space that enables efficient sampling. {In contrast to DMs, our framework demonstrates the capability to generate realistic data points at an early stage of dynamics propagation.} This early prediction sets the stage for efficient data generation by leveraging additional velocity information along the trajectory. On standard image generation benchmarks, our model yields favorable performance over baselines in the regime of small Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Furthermore, our approach rivals the performance of diffusion models equipped with efficient sampling techniques, underscoring its potential as a new tool generative modeling.

Learning to remember over long timescales is fundamentally challenging for recurrent neural networks (RNNs). While much prior work has explored why RNNs struggle to learn long timescales and how to mitigate this, we still lack a clear understanding of the dynamics involved when RNNs learn long timescales via gradient descent. Here we build a mathematical theory of the learning dynamics of linear RNNs trained to integrate white noise. We show that when the initial recurrent weights are small, the dynamics of learning are described by a low-dimensional system that tracks a single outlier eigenvalue of the recurrent weights. This reveals the precise manner in which the long timescale associated with white noise integration is learned. We extend our analyses to RNNs learning a damped oscillatory filter, and find rich dynamical equations for the evolution of a conjugate pair of outlier eigenvalues. Taken together, our analyses build a rich mathematical framework for studying dynamical learning problems salient for both machine learning and neuroscience.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Score-based diffusion models are a class of generative models whose dynamics is described by stochastic differential equations that map noise into data. While recent works have started to lay down a theoretical foundation for these models, an analytical understanding of the role of the diffusion time T is still lacking. Current best practice advocates for a large T to ensure that the forward dynamics brings the diffusion sufficiently close to a known and simple noise distribution; however, a smaller value of T should be preferred for a better approximation of the score-matching objective and higher computational efficiency. Starting from a variational interpretation of diffusion models, in this work we quantify this trade-off, and suggest a new method to improve quality and efficiency of both training and sampling, by adopting smaller diffusion times. Indeed, we show how an auxiliary model can be used to bridge the gap between the ideal and the simulated forward dynamics, followed by a standard reverse diffusion process. Empirical results support our analysis; for image data, our method is competitive w.r.t. the state-of-the-art, according to standard sample quality metrics and log-likelihood.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting, with patch-based input strategies offering efficiency and improved long-horizon modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and fixed lengths fracture temporal coherence by splitting natural transitions across boundaries. This naive segmentation often disrupts short-term dependencies and weakens representation learning. In response, we propose EntroPE (Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder), a novel, temporally informed framework that dynamically detects transition points via conditional entropy and dynamically places patch boundaries. This preserves temporal structure while retaining the computational benefits of patching. EntroPE consists of two key modules, namely an Entropy-based Dynamic Patcher (EDP) that applies information-theoretic criteria to locate natural temporal shifts and determine patch boundaries, and an Adaptive Patch Encoder (APE) that employs pooling and cross-attention to capture intra-patch dependencies and produce fixed-size latent representations. These embeddings are then processed by a global transformer to model inter-patch dynamics. Experiments across long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that EntroPE improves both accuracy and efficiency, establishing entropy-guided dynamic patching as a promising new paradigm for time series modeling. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/EntroPE.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also show that this model can be easily incorporated into dynamics modeling for model-based planning and model-free RL and report promising experimental results.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Score-based generative modeling with probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has achieved remarkable success in a variety of applications. While various fast ODE-based samplers have been proposed in the literature and employed in practice, the theoretical understandings about convergence properties of the probability flow ODE are still quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first non-asymptotic convergence analysis for a general class of probability flow ODE samplers in 2-Wasserstein distance, assuming accurate score estimates. We then consider various examples and establish results on the iteration complexity of the corresponding ODE-based samplers.

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we interpret the resulting training dynamics and the phase transitions that characterize different trajectories? To understand the effect of randomness on the dynamics and outcomes of neural network training, we train models multiple times with different random seeds and compute a variety of metrics throughout training, such as the L_2 norm, mean, and variance of the neural network's weights. We then fit a hidden Markov model (HMM) over the resulting sequences of metrics. The HMM represents training as a stochastic process of transitions between latent states, providing an intuitive overview of significant changes during training. Using our method, we produce a low-dimensional, discrete representation of training dynamics on grokking tasks, image classification, and masked language modeling. We use the HMM representation to study phase transitions and identify latent "detour" states that slow down convergence.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

We design a physics-aware auto-encoder to specifically reduce the dimensionality of solutions arising from convection-dominated nonlinear physical systems. Although existing nonlinear manifold learning methods seem to be compelling tools to reduce the dimensionality of data characterized by a large Kolmogorov n-width, they typically lack a straightforward mapping from the latent space to the high-dimensional physical space. Moreover, the realized latent variables are often hard to interpret. Therefore, many of these methods are often dismissed in the reduced order modeling of dynamical systems governed by the partial differential equations (PDEs). Accordingly, we propose an auto-encoder type nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm. The unsupervised learning problem trains a diffeomorphic spatio-temporal grid, that registers the output sequence of the PDEs on a non-uniform parameter/time-varying grid, such that the Kolmogorov n-width of the mapped data on the learned grid is minimized. We demonstrate the efficacy and interpretability of our approach to separate convection/advection from diffusion/scaling on various manufactured and physical systems.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Singular limits for the following indirect signalling chemotaxis system align* \left\{ array{lllllll} \partial_t n = \Delta n - \nabla \cdot (n \nabla c ) & in \Omega\times(0,\infty) , \varepsilon \partial_t c = \Delta c - c + w & in \Omega\times(0,\infty), \varepsilon \partial_t w = \tau \Delta w - w + n & in \Omega\times (0,\infty), \partial_\nu n = \partial_\nu c = \partial_\nu w = 0, &on \partial\Omega\times (0,\infty) %(n,c,w)_{t=0} = (n_0,c_0,w_0) & on \Omega, array \right. align* are investigated. More precisely, we study parabolic-elliptic simplification, or PES, varepsilonto 0^+ with fixed tau>0 up to the critical dimension N=4, and indirect-direct simplification, or IDS, (varepsilon,tau)to (0^+,0^+) up to the critical dimension N=2. These are relevant in biological situations where the signalling process is on a much faster time scale compared to the species diffusion and all interactions. Showing singular limits in critical dimensions is challenging. To deal with the PES, we carefully combine the entropy function, an Adam-type inequality, the regularisation of slow evolution, and an energy equation method to obtain strong convergence in representative spaces. For the IDS, a bootstrap argument concerning the L^p-energy function is devised, which allows us to obtain suitable uniform bounds for the singular limits. Moreover, in both scenarios, we also present the convergence rates, where the effect of the initial layer and the convergence to the critical manifold are also revealed.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

Diffusion models, which employ stochastic differential equations to sample images through integrals, have emerged as a dominant class of generative models. However, the rationality of the diffusion process itself receives limited attention, leaving the question of whether the problem is well-posed and well-conditioned. In this paper, we uncover a vexing propensity of diffusion models: they frequently exhibit the infinite Lipschitz near the zero point of timesteps. This poses a threat to the stability and accuracy of the diffusion process, which relies on integral operations. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the issue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, dubbed E-TSDM, which eliminates the Lipschitz singularity of the diffusion model near zero. Remarkably, our technique yields a substantial improvement in performance, e.g., on the high-resolution FFHQ dataset (256times256). Moreover, as a byproduct of our method, we manage to achieve a dramatic reduction in the Frechet Inception Distance of other acceleration methods relying on network Lipschitz, including DDIM and DPM-Solver, by over 33%. We conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets to validate our theory and method. Our work not only advances the understanding of the general diffusion process, but also provides insights for the design of diffusion models.

This paper describes a method for learning low-dimensional approximations of nonlinear dynamical systems, based on neural-network approximations of the underlying Koopman operator. Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) provides a useful data-driven approximation of the Koopman operator for analyzing dynamical systems. This paper addresses a fundamental problem associated with EDMD: a trade-off between representational capacity of the dictionary and over-fitting due to insufficient data. A new neural network architecture combining an autoencoder with linear recurrent dynamics in the encoded state is used to learn a low-dimensional and highly informative Koopman-invariant subspace of observables. A method is also presented for balanced model reduction of over-specified EDMD systems in feature space. Nonlinear reconstruction using partially linear multi-kernel regression aims to improve reconstruction accuracy from the low-dimensional state when the data has complex but intrinsically low-dimensional structure. The techniques demonstrate the ability to identify Koopman eigenfunctions of the unforced Duffing equation, create accurate low-dimensional models of an unstable cylinder wake flow, and make short-time predictions of the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.

Motivated by the paradigm of reservoir computing, we consider randomly initialized controlled ResNets defined as Euler-discretizations of neural controlled differential equations (Neural CDEs), a unified architecture which enconpasses both RNNs and ResNets. We show that in the infinite-width-depth limit and under proper scaling, these architectures converge weakly to Gaussian processes indexed on some spaces of continuous paths and with kernels satisfying certain partial differential equations (PDEs) varying according to the choice of activation function, extending the results of Hayou (2022); Hayou & Yang (2023) to the controlled and homogeneous case. In the special, homogeneous, case where the activation is the identity, we show that the equation reduces to a linear PDE and the limiting kernel agrees with the signature kernel of Salvi et al. (2021a). We name this new family of limiting kernels neural signature kernels. Finally, we show that in the infinite-depth regime, finite-width controlled ResNets converge in distribution to Neural CDEs with random vector fields which, depending on whether the weights are shared across layers, are either time-independent and Gaussian or behave like a matrix-valued Brownian motion.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Some fractals -- for instance those associated with the Mandelbrot and quadratic Julia sets -- are computed by iterating a function, and identifying the boundary between hyperparameters for which the resulting series diverges or remains bounded. Neural network training similarly involves iterating an update function (e.g. repeated steps of gradient descent), can result in convergent or divergent behavior, and can be extremely sensitive to small changes in hyperparameters. Motivated by these similarities, we experimentally examine the boundary between neural network hyperparameters that lead to stable and divergent training. We find that this boundary is fractal over more than ten decades of scale in all tested configurations.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

Ever since the original algorithm by Nesterov (1983), the true nature of the acceleration phenomenon has remained elusive, with various interpretations of why the method is actually faster. The diagnosis of the algorithm through the lens of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) and the corresponding dynamical system formulation to explain the underlying dynamics has a rich history. In the literature, the ODEs that explain algorithms are typically derived by considering the limiting case of the algorithm maps themselves, that is, an ODE formulation follows the development of an algorithm. This obfuscates the underlying higher order principles and thus provides little evidence of the working of the algorithm. Such has been the case with Nesterov algorithm and the various analogies used to describe the acceleration phenomena, viz, momentum associated with the rolling of a Heavy-Ball down a slope, Hessian damping etc. The main focus of our work is to ideate the genesis of the Nesterov algorithm from the viewpoint of dynamical systems leading to demystifying the mathematical rigour behind the algorithm. Instead of reverse engineering ODEs from discrete algorithms, this work explores tools from the recently developed control paradigm titled Passivity and Immersion approach and the Geometric Singular Perturbation theory which are applied to arrive at the formulation of a dynamical system that explains and models the acceleration phenomena. This perspective helps to gain insights into the various terms present and the sequence of steps used in Nesterovs accelerated algorithm for the smooth strongly convex and the convex case. The framework can also be extended to derive the acceleration achieved using the triple momentum method and provides justifications for the non-convergence to the optimal solution in the Heavy-Ball method.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling, due to their state-of-the art performance in many generation tasks while relying on mathematical foundations such as stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Empirically, it has been reported that ODE based samples are inferior to SDE based samples. In this paper we rigorously describe the range of dynamics and approximations that arise when training score-based diffusion models, including the true SDE dynamics, the neural approximations, the various approximate particle dynamics that result, as well as their associated Fokker--Planck equations and the neural network approximations of these Fokker--Planck equations. We systematically analyse the difference between the ODE and SDE dynamics of score-based diffusion models, and link it to an associated Fokker--Planck equation. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the Wasserstein 2-distance between the ODE- and SDE-induced distributions in terms of a Fokker--Planck residual. We also show numerically that conventional score-based diffusion models can exhibit significant differences between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions which we demonstrate using explicit comparisons. Moreover, we show numerically that reducing the Fokker--Planck residual by adding it as an additional regularisation term leads to closing the gap between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions. Our experiments suggest that this regularisation can improve the distribution generated by the ODE, however that this can come at the cost of degraded SDE sample quality.

We identify and formalize a fundamental gradient descent phenomenon resulting in a learning proclivity in over-parameterized neural networks. Gradient Starvation arises when cross-entropy loss is minimized by capturing only a subset of features relevant for the task, despite the presence of other predictive features that fail to be discovered. This work provides a theoretical explanation for the emergence of such feature imbalance in neural networks. Using tools from Dynamical Systems theory, we identify simple properties of learning dynamics during gradient descent that lead to this imbalance, and prove that such a situation can be expected given certain statistical structure in training data. Based on our proposed formalism, we develop guarantees for a novel regularization method aimed at decoupling feature learning dynamics, improving accuracy and robustness in cases hindered by gradient starvation. We illustrate our findings with simple and real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization experiments.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

This article provides a mathematically rigorous introduction to denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), sometimes also referred to as diffusion probabilistic models or diffusion models, for generative artificial intelligence. We provide a detailed basic mathematical framework for DDPMs and explain the main ideas behind training and generation procedures. In this overview article we also review selected extensions and improvements of the basic framework from the literature such as improved DDPMs, denoising diffusion implicit models, classifier-free diffusion guidance models, and latent diffusion models.

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger, 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it remains unclear in particular how the irregularity of the time series affects their predictions. By merging the rich theory of controlled differential equations (CDE) and Lipschitz-based measures of the complexity of deep neural nets, we take a first step towards the theoretical understanding of NCDE. Our first result is a generalization bound for this class of predictors that depends on the regularity of the time series data. In a second time, we leverage the continuity of the flow of CDEs to provide a detailed analysis of both the sampling-induced bias and the approximation bias. Regarding this last result, we show how classical approximation results on neural nets may transfer to NCDEs. Our theoretical results are validated through a series of experiments.

Despite the widespread practical success of deep learning methods, our theoretical understanding of the dynamics of learning in deep neural networks remains quite sparse. We attempt to bridge the gap between the theory and practice of deep learning by systematically analyzing learning dynamics for the restricted case of deep linear neural networks. Despite the linearity of their input-output map, such networks have nonlinear gradient descent dynamics on weights that change with the addition of each new hidden layer. We show that deep linear networks exhibit nonlinear learning phenomena similar to those seen in simulations of nonlinear networks, including long plateaus followed by rapid transitions to lower error solutions, and faster convergence from greedy unsupervised pretraining initial conditions than from random initial conditions. We provide an analytical description of these phenomena by finding new exact solutions to the nonlinear dynamics of deep learning. Our theoretical analysis also reveals the surprising finding that as the depth of a network approaches infinity, learning speed can nevertheless remain finite: for a special class of initial conditions on the weights, very deep networks incur only a finite, depth independent, delay in learning speed relative to shallow networks. We show that, under certain conditions on the training data, unsupervised pretraining can find this special class of initial conditions, while scaled random Gaussian initializations cannot. We further exhibit a new class of random orthogonal initial conditions on weights that, like unsupervised pre-training, enjoys depth independent learning times. We further show that these initial conditions also lead to faithful propagation of gradients even in deep nonlinear networks, as long as they operate in a special regime known as the edge of chaos.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

State space models (SSMs) have shown remarkable empirical performance on many long sequence modeling tasks, but a theoretical understanding of these models is still lacking. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of linear SSMs to understand how covariance structure in data, latent state size, and initialization affect the evolution of parameters throughout learning with gradient descent. We show that focusing on the learning dynamics in the frequency domain affords analytical solutions under mild assumptions, and we establish a link between one-dimensional SSMs and the dynamics of deep linear feed-forward networks. Finally, we analyze how latent state over-parameterization affects convergence time and describe future work in extending our results to the study of deep SSMs with nonlinear connections. This work is a step toward a theory of learning dynamics in deep state space models.

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

One technique to visualize the training of neural networks is to perform PCA on the parameters over the course of training and to project to the subspace spanned by the first few PCA components. In this paper we compare this technique to the PCA of a high dimensional random walk. We compute the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the covariance of the trajectory and prove that in the long trajectory and high dimensional limit most of the variance is in the first few PCA components, and that the projection of the trajectory onto any subspace spanned by PCA components is a Lissajous curve. We generalize these results to a random walk with momentum and to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes (i.e., a random walk in a quadratic potential) and show that in high dimensions the walk is not mean reverting, but will instead be trapped at a fixed distance from the minimum. We finally compare the distribution of PCA variances and the PCA projected training trajectories of a linear model trained on CIFAR-10 and ResNet-50-v2 trained on Imagenet and find that the distribution of PCA variances resembles a random walk with drift.

The weight initialization and the activation function of deep neural networks have a crucial impact on the performance of the training procedure. An inappropriate selection can lead to the loss of information of the input during forward propagation and the exponential vanishing/exploding of gradients during back-propagation. Understanding the theoretical properties of untrained random networks is key to identifying which deep networks may be trained successfully as recently demonstrated by Samuel et al (2017) who showed that for deep feedforward neural networks only a specific choice of hyperparameters known as the `Edge of Chaos' can lead to good performance. While the work by Samuel et al (2017) discuss trainability issues, we focus here on training acceleration and overall performance. We give a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the Edge of Chaos and show that we can indeed tune the initialization parameters and the activation function in order to accelerate the training and improve the performance.

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

Deep models have achieved impressive progress in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). A burgeoning paradigm is learning neural operators to approximate the input-output mappings of PDEs. While previous deep models have explored the multiscale architectures and various operator designs, they are limited to learning the operators as a whole in the coordinate space. In real physical science problems, PDEs are complex coupled equations with numerical solvers relying on discretization into high-dimensional coordinate space, which cannot be precisely approximated by a single operator nor efficiently learned due to the curse of dimensionality. We present Latent Spectral Models (LSM) toward an efficient and precise solver for high-dimensional PDEs. Going beyond the coordinate space, LSM enables an attention-based hierarchical projection network to reduce the high-dimensional data into a compact latent space in linear time. Inspired by classical spectral methods in numerical analysis, we design a neural spectral block to solve PDEs in the latent space that approximates complex input-output mappings via learning multiple basis operators, enjoying nice theoretical guarantees for convergence and approximation. Experimentally, LSM achieves consistent state-of-the-art and yields a relative gain of 11.5% averaged on seven benchmarks covering both solid and fluid physics. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Latent-Spectral-Models.

Probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is widely used in existing model-based reinforcement learning methods as it outperforms a single dynamics model in both asymptotic performance and sample efficiency. In this paper, we provide both practical and theoretical insights on the empirical success of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble through the lens of Lipschitz continuity. We find that, for a value function, the stronger the Lipschitz condition is, the smaller the gap between the true dynamics- and learned dynamics-induced Bellman operators is, thus enabling the converged value function to be closer to the optimal value function. Hence, we hypothesize that the key functionality of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is to regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value function using generated samples. To test this hypothesis, we devise two practical robust training mechanisms through computing the adversarial noise and regularizing the value network's spectral norm to directly regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value functions. Empirical results show that combined with our mechanisms, model-based RL algorithms with a single dynamics model outperform those with an ensemble of probabilistic dynamics models. These findings not only support the theoretical insight, but also provide a practical solution for developing computationally efficient model-based RL algorithms.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

In this paper, we examine the solvability of a functional equation in a Lipschitz space. As an application, we use our result to determine the existence and uniqueness of solutions to an equation describing a specific type of choice behavior model for the learning process of the paradise fish. Finally, we present some concrete examples where, using numerical techniques, we obtain approximations to the solution of the functional equation. As the straightforward Picard's iteration can be very expensive, we show that an analytical suboptimal least-squares approximation can be chosen in practice, resulting in very good accuracy.

Despite advances in learning-based methods, finding valid Lyapunov functions for nonlinear dynamical systems remains challenging. Current neural network approaches face two main issues: challenges in scalable verification and limited interpretability. To address these, we propose an end-to-end framework using transformers to construct analytical Lyapunov functions (local), which simplifies formal verification, enhances interpretability, and provides valuable insights for control engineers. Our framework consists of a transformer-based trainer that generates candidate Lyapunov functions and a falsifier that verifies candidate expressions and refines the model via risk-seeking policy gradient. Unlike Alfarano et al. (2024), which utilizes pre-training and seeks global Lyapunov functions for low-dimensional systems, our model is trained from scratch via reinforcement learning (RL) and succeeds in finding local Lyapunov functions for high-dimensional and non-polynomial systems. Given the analytical nature of the candidates, we employ efficient optimization methods for falsification during training and formal verification tools for the final verification. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach on a range of nonlinear dynamical systems with up to ten dimensions and show that it can discover Lyapunov functions not previously identified in the control literature.

We consider dense, associative neural-networks trained with no supervision and we investigate their computational capabilities analytically, via a statistical-mechanics approach, and numerically, via Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we obtain a phase diagram summarizing their performance as a function of the control parameters such as the quality and quantity of the training dataset and the network storage, valid in the limit of large network size and structureless datasets. Moreover, we establish a bridge between macroscopic observables standardly used in statistical mechanics and loss functions typically used in the machine learning. As technical remarks, from the analytic side, we implement large deviations and stability analysis within Guerra's interpolation to tackle the not-Gaussian distributions involved in the post-synaptic potentials while, from the computational counterpart, we insert Plefka approximation in the Monte Carlo scheme, to speed up the evaluation of the synaptic tensors, overall obtaining a novel and broad approach to investigate neural networks in general.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Diffusion models are a powerful class of generative models which simulate stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to generate data from noise. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable progress, they have limitations in unpaired image-to-image (I2I) translation tasks due to the Gaussian prior assumption. Schr\"{o}dinger Bridge (SB), which learns an SDE to translate between two arbitrary distributions, have risen as an attractive solution to this problem. Yet, to our best knowledge, none of SB models so far have been successful at unpaired translation between high-resolution images. In this work, we propose Unpaired Neural Schr\"{o}dinger Bridge (UNSB), which expresses the SB problem as a sequence of adversarial learning problems. This allows us to incorporate advanced discriminators and regularization to learn a SB between unpaired data. We show that UNSB is scalable and successfully solves various unpaired I2I translation tasks. Code: https://github.com/cyclomon/UNSB

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing but can exhibit biases and may generate toxic content. While alignment techniques like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) reduce these issues, their impact on creativity, defined as syntactic and semantic diversity, remains unexplored. We investigate the unintended consequences of RLHF on the creativity of LLMs through three experiments focusing on the Llama-2 series. Our findings reveal that aligned models exhibit lower entropy in token predictions, form distinct clusters in the embedding space, and gravitate towards "attractor states", indicating limited output diversity. Our findings have significant implications for marketers who rely on LLMs for creative tasks such as copywriting, ad creation, and customer persona generation. The trade-off between consistency and creativity in aligned models should be carefully considered when selecting the appropriate model for a given application. We also discuss the importance of prompt engineering in harnessing the creative potential of base models.

We present AROMA (Attentive Reduced Order Model with Attention), a framework designed to enhance the modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs) using local neural fields. Our flexible encoder-decoder architecture can obtain smooth latent representations of spatial physical fields from a variety of data types, including irregular-grid inputs and point clouds. This versatility eliminates the need for patching and allows efficient processing of diverse geometries. The sequential nature of our latent representation can be interpreted spatially and permits the use of a conditional transformer for modeling the temporal dynamics of PDEs. By employing a diffusion-based formulation, we achieve greater stability and enable longer rollouts compared to conventional MSE training. AROMA's superior performance in simulating 1D and 2D equations underscores the efficacy of our approach in capturing complex dynamical behaviors.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

We introduce Lagrangian Flow Networks (LFlows) for modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time. By construction, the proposed LFlows satisfy the continuity equation, a PDE describing mass conservation in its differentiable form. Our model is based on the insight that solutions to the continuity equation can be expressed as time-dependent density transformations via differentiable and invertible maps. This follows from classical theory of the existence and uniqueness of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields. Hence, we model fluid densities by transforming a base density with parameterized diffeomorphisms conditioned on time. The key benefit compared to methods relying on numerical ODE solvers or PINNs is that the analytic expression of the velocity is always consistent with changes in density. Furthermore, we require neither expensive numerical solvers, nor additional penalties to enforce the PDE. LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D, while being computationally efficient. As a real-world application, we model bird migration based on sparse weather radar measurements.

Ridge Rider (RR) is an algorithm for finding diverse solutions to optimization problems by following eigenvectors of the Hessian ("ridges"). RR is designed for conservative gradient systems (i.e., settings involving a single loss function), where it branches at saddles - easy-to-find bifurcation points. We generalize this idea to non-conservative, multi-agent gradient systems by proposing a method - denoted Generalized Ridge Rider (GRR) - for finding arbitrary bifurcation points. We give theoretical motivation for our method by leveraging machinery from the field of dynamical systems. We construct novel toy problems where we can visualize new phenomena while giving insight into high-dimensional problems of interest. Finally, we empirically evaluate our method by finding diverse solutions in the iterated prisoners' dilemma and relevant machine learning problems including generative adversarial networks.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for modern generative modeling, demonstrating strong potential for large language models (LLMs). Unlike conventional autoregressive (AR) models that generate tokens sequentially, diffusion models enable parallel token sampling, leading to faster generation and eliminating left-to-right generation constraints. Despite their empirical success, the theoretical understanding of diffusion model approaches remains underdeveloped. In this work, we develop convergence guarantees for diffusion language models from an information-theoretic perspective. Our analysis demonstrates that the sampling error, measured by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, decays inversely with the number of iterations T and scales linearly with the mutual information between tokens in the target text sequence. In particular, we establish matching upper and lower bounds, up to some constant factor, to demonstrate the tightness of our convergence analysis. These results offer novel theoretical insights into the practical effectiveness of diffusion language models.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Democratization of machine learning requires architectures that automatically adapt to new problems. Neural Differential Equations (NDEs) have emerged as a popular modeling framework by removing the need for ML practitioners to choose the number of layers in a recurrent model. While we can control the computational cost by choosing the number of layers in standard architectures, in NDEs the number of neural network evaluations for a forward pass can depend on the number of steps of the adaptive ODE solver. But, can we force the NDE to learn the version with the least steps while not increasing the training cost? Current strategies to overcome slow prediction require high order automatic differentiation, leading to significantly higher training time. We describe a novel regularization method that uses the internal cost heuristics of adaptive differential equation solvers combined with discrete adjoint sensitivities to guide the training process towards learning NDEs that are easier to solve. This approach opens up the blackbox numerical analysis behind the differential equation solver's algorithm and directly uses its local error estimates and stiffness heuristics as cheap and accurate cost estimates. We incorporate our method without any change in the underlying NDE framework and show that our method extends beyond Ordinary Differential Equations to accommodate Neural Stochastic Differential Equations. We demonstrate how our approach can halve the prediction time and, unlike other methods which can increase the training time by an order of magnitude, we demonstrate similar reduction in training times. Together this showcases how the knowledge embedded within state-of-the-art equation solvers can be used to enhance machine learning.

This paper reports on patterns exhibiting self-replication with spontaneous, inheritable mutations and exponential genetic drift in Neural Cellular Automata. Despite the models not being explicitly trained for mutation or inheritability, the descendant patterns exponentially drift away from ancestral patterns, even when the automaton is deterministic. While this is far from being the first instance of evolutionary dynamics in a cellular automaton, it is the first to do so by exploiting the power and convenience of Neural Cellular Automata, arguably increasing the space of variations and the opportunity for Open Ended Evolution.

In this paper, it is shown that if a sequence of resistance metric spaces equipped with measures converges with respect to the local Gromov-Hausdorff-vague topology, and certain non-explosion and metric-entropy conditions are satisfied, then the associated stochastic processes and their local times also converge. The metric-entropy condition can be checked by applying volume estimates of balls. Whilst similar results have been proved previously, the approach of this article is more widely applicable. Indeed, we recover various known conclusions for scaling limits of some deterministic self-similar fractal graphs, critical Galton-Watson trees, the critical Erdos-R\'enyi random graph and the configuration model (in the latter two cases, we prove for the first time the convergence of the models with respect to the resistance metric and also, for the configuration model, we overcome an error in the existing proof of local time convergence). Moreover, we derive new ones for scaling limits of uniform spanning trees and random recursive fractals. The metric-entropy condition also implies convergence of associated Gaussian processes.

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

Even for known nonlinear dynamical systems, feedback controller synthesis is a difficult problem that often requires leveraging the particular structure of the dynamics to induce a stable closed-loop system. For general nonlinear models, including those fit to data, there may not be enough known structure to reliably synthesize a stabilizing feedback controller. In this paper, we discuss a state-dependent nonlinear tracking controller formulation based on a state-dependent Riccati equation for general nonlinear control-affine systems. This formulation depends on a nonlinear factorization of the system of vector fields defining the control-affine dynamics, which always exists under mild smoothness assumptions. We propose a method for learning this factorization from a finite set of data. On a variety of simulated nonlinear dynamical systems, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of learned versions of this controller in stable trajectory tracking. Alongside our learning method, we evaluate recent ideas in jointly learning a controller and stabilizability certificate for known dynamical systems; we show experimentally that such methods can be frail in comparison.

The self-attention mechanism (SAM) is widely used in various fields of artificial intelligence and has successfully boosted the performance of different models. However, current explanations of this mechanism are mainly based on intuitions and experiences, while there still lacks direct modeling for how the SAM helps performance. To mitigate this issue, in this paper, based on the dynamical system perspective of the residual neural network, we first show that the intrinsic stiffness phenomenon (SP) in the high-precision solution of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) also widely exists in high-performance neural networks (NN). Thus the ability of NN to measure SP at the feature level is necessary to obtain high performance and is an important factor in the difficulty of training NN. Similar to the adaptive step-size method which is effective in solving stiff ODEs, we show that the SAM is also a stiffness-aware step size adaptor that can enhance the model's representational ability to measure intrinsic SP by refining the estimation of stiffness information and generating adaptive attention values, which provides a new understanding about why and how the SAM can benefit the model performance. This novel perspective can also explain the lottery ticket hypothesis in SAM, design new quantitative metrics of representational ability, and inspire a new theoretic-inspired approach, StepNet. Extensive experiments on several popular benchmarks demonstrate that StepNet can extract fine-grained stiffness information and measure SP accurately, leading to significant improvements in various visual tasks.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

In recent years, the application of transformer-based models in time-series forecasting has received significant attention. While often demonstrating promising results, the transformer architecture encounters challenges in fully exploiting the temporal relations within time series data due to its attention mechanism. In this work, we design eXponential Patch (xPatch for short), a novel dual-stream architecture that utilizes exponential decomposition. Inspired by the classical exponential smoothing approaches, xPatch introduces the innovative seasonal-trend exponential decomposition module. Additionally, we propose a dual-flow architecture that consists of an MLP-based linear stream and a CNN-based non-linear stream. This model investigates the benefits of employing patching and channel-independence techniques within a non-transformer model. Finally, we develop a robust arctangent loss function and a sigmoid learning rate adjustment scheme, which prevent overfitting and boost forecasting performance. The code is available at the following repository: https://github.com/stitsyuk/xPatch.

From a viewpoint of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive equations that describe the collective dynamics near the order-disorder transition in the globally coupled XY model and near the synchronization-desynchronization transition in the Kuramoto model. A new way of thinking is to interpret the deterministic time evolution of a macroscopic variable as an external operation to a thermodynamic system. We then find that the irreversible work determines the equation for the collective dynamics. When analyzing the Kuramoto model, we employ a generalized concept of irreversible work which originates from a non-equilibrium identity associated with steady state thermodynamics.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Language exhibits a fractal structure in its information-theoretic complexity (i.e. bits per token), with self-similarity across scales and long-range dependence (LRD). In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can replicate such fractal characteristics and identify conditions-such as temperature setting and prompting method-under which they may fail. Moreover, we find that the fractal parameters observed in natural language are contained within a narrow range, whereas those of LLMs' output vary widely, suggesting that fractal parameters might prove helpful in detecting a non-trivial portion of LLM-generated texts. Notably, these findings, and many others reported in this work, are robust to the choice of the architecture; e.g. Gemini 1.0 Pro, Mistral-7B and Gemma-2B. We also release a dataset comprising of over 240,000 articles generated by various LLMs (both pretrained and instruction-tuned) with different decoding temperatures and prompting methods, along with their corresponding human-generated texts. We hope that this work highlights the complex interplay between fractal properties, prompting, and statistical mimicry in LLMs, offering insights for generating, evaluating and detecting synthetic texts.

Neural network training is inherently sensitive to initialization and the randomness induced by stochastic gradient descent. However, it is unclear to what extent such effects lead to meaningfully different networks, either in terms of the models' weights or the underlying functions that were learned. In this work, we show that during the initial "chaotic" phase of training, even extremely small perturbations reliably causes otherwise identical training trajectories to diverge-an effect that diminishes rapidly over training time. We quantify this divergence through (i) L^2 distance between parameters, (ii) the loss barrier when interpolating between networks, (iii) L^2 and barrier between parameters after permutation alignment, and (iv) representational similarity between intermediate activations; revealing how perturbations across different hyperparameter or fine-tuning settings drive training trajectories toward distinct loss minima. Our findings provide insights into neural network training stability, with practical implications for fine-tuning, model merging, and diversity of model ensembles.

Approximating nonlinear differential equations using a neural network provides a robust and efficient tool for various scientific computing tasks, including real-time predictions, inverse problems, optimal controls, and surrogate modeling. Previous works have focused on embedding dynamical systems into networks through two approaches: learning a single solution operator (i.e., the mapping from input parametrized functions to solutions) or learning the governing system of equations (i.e., the constitutive model relative to the state variables). Both of these approaches yield different representations for the same underlying data or function. Additionally, observing that families of differential equations often share key characteristics, we seek one network representation across a wide range of equations. Our method, called Predicting Operators and Symbolic Expressions (PROSE), learns maps from multimodal inputs to multimodal outputs, capable of generating both numerical predictions and mathematical equations. By using a transformer structure and a feature fusion approach, our network can simultaneously embed sets of solution operators for various parametric differential equations using a single trained network. Detailed experiments demonstrate that the network benefits from its multimodal nature, resulting in improved prediction accuracy and better generalization. The network is shown to be able to handle noise in the data and errors in the symbolic representation, including noisy numerical values, model misspecification, and erroneous addition or deletion of terms. PROSE provides a new neural network framework for differential equations which allows for more flexibility and generality in learning operators and governing equations from data.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

In this work we study static neutron stars in the context of several inflationary models which are popular in cosmology. These inflationary models are non-minimally coupled scalar theories which yield a viable inflationary phenomenology in both Jordan and Einstein frames. By considering the constraints from inflationary theories, which basically determine the values of the potential strength, usually considered as a free parameter in astrophysical neutron star works, we construct and solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equations using a solid python-3 LSODA integrator. For our study we consider several popular inflationary models, such as the universal attractors, the R^p attractors (three distinct model values), the induced inflation, the quadratic inflation, the Higgs inflation and the a-attractors (two distinct model values) and for the following popular equations of state the WFF1, the SLy, the APR, the MS1, the AP3, the AP4, the ENG, the MPA1 and the MS1b. We construct the M-R diagram and we confront the resulting theory with theoretical and observational constraints. As we demonstrate, remarkably, all the neutron stars produced by all the inflationary models we considered are compatible with all the constraints for the MPA1 equation of state. It is notable that for this particular equation of state, the maximum masses of the neutron stars are in the mass-gap region with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit. We also make the observation that as the NICER constraints are pushed towards larger radii, as for example in the case of the black widow pulsar PSR J0952-0607, it seems that equations of state that produce neutron stars with maximum masses in the mass gap region, with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit, are favored and are compatible with the modified NICER constraints.

The Latent Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) is a powerful tool for time series and sequence modeling. However, training Latent SDEs typically relies on adjoint sensitivity methods, which depend on simulation and backpropagation through approximate SDE solutions, which limit scalability. In this work, we propose SDE Matching, a new simulation-free method for training Latent SDEs. Inspired by modern Score- and Flow Matching algorithms for learning generative dynamics, we extend these ideas to the domain of stochastic dynamics for time series and sequence modeling, eliminating the need for costly numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that SDE Matching achieves performance comparable to adjoint sensitivity methods while drastically reducing computational complexity.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used throughout neuroscience as models of local neural activity. Many properties of single RNNs are well characterized theoretically, but experimental neuroscience has moved in the direction of studying multiple interacting areas, and RNN theory needs to be likewise extended. We take a constructive approach towards this problem, leveraging tools from nonlinear control theory and machine learning to characterize when combinations of stable RNNs will themselves be stable. Importantly, we derive conditions which allow for massive feedback connections between interacting RNNs. We parameterize these conditions for easy optimization using gradient-based techniques, and show that stability-constrained "networks of networks" can perform well on challenging sequential-processing benchmark tasks. Altogether, our results provide a principled approach towards understanding distributed, modular function in the brain.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

We propose that the grokking phenomenon, where the train loss of a neural network decreases much earlier than its test loss, can arise due to a neural network transitioning from lazy training dynamics to a rich, feature learning regime. To illustrate this mechanism, we study the simple setting of vanilla gradient descent on a polynomial regression problem with a two layer neural network which exhibits grokking without regularization in a way that cannot be explained by existing theories. We identify sufficient statistics for the test loss of such a network, and tracking these over training reveals that grokking arises in this setting when the network first attempts to fit a kernel regression solution with its initial features, followed by late-time feature learning where a generalizing solution is identified after train loss is already low. We provide an asymptotic theoretical description of the grokking dynamics in this model using dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) for high dimensional data. We find that the key determinants of grokking are the rate of feature learning -- which can be controlled precisely by parameters that scale the network output -- and the alignment of the initial features with the target function y(x). We argue this delayed generalization arises when (1) the top eigenvectors of the initial neural tangent kernel and the task labels y(x) are misaligned, but (2) the dataset size is large enough so that it is possible for the network to generalize eventually, but not so large that train loss perfectly tracks test loss at all epochs, and (3) the network begins training in the lazy regime so does not learn features immediately. We conclude with evidence that this transition from lazy (linear model) to rich training (feature learning) can control grokking in more general settings, like on MNIST, one-layer Transformers, and student-teacher networks.

While neural networks can be approximated by linear models as their width increases, certain properties of wide neural networks cannot be captured by linear models. In this work we show that recently proposed Neural Quadratic Models can exhibit the "catapult phase" [Lewkowycz et al. 2020] that arises when training such models with large learning rates. We then empirically show that the behaviour of neural quadratic models parallels that of neural networks in generalization, especially in the catapult phase regime. Our analysis further demonstrates that quadratic models can be an effective tool for analysis of neural networks.

Designing biological sequences is an important challenge that requires satisfying complex constraints and thus is a natural problem to address with deep generative modeling. Diffusion generative models have achieved considerable success in many applications. Score-based generative stochastic differential equations (SDE) model is a continuous-time diffusion model framework that enjoys many benefits, but the originally proposed SDEs are not naturally designed for modeling discrete data. To develop generative SDE models for discrete data such as biological sequences, here we introduce a diffusion process defined in the probability simplex space with stationary distribution being the Dirichlet distribution. This makes diffusion in continuous space natural for modeling discrete data. We refer to this approach as Dirchlet diffusion score model. We demonstrate that this technique can generate samples that satisfy hard constraints using a Sudoku generation task. This generative model can also solve Sudoku, including hard puzzles, without additional training. Finally, we applied this approach to develop the first human promoter DNA sequence design model and showed that designed sequences share similar properties with natural promoter sequences.

Despite their spectacular progress, language models still struggle on complex reasoning tasks, such as advanced mathematics. We consider a long-standing open problem in mathematics: discovering a Lyapunov function that ensures the global stability of a dynamical system. This problem has no known general solution, and algorithmic solvers only exist for some small polynomial systems. We propose a new method for generating synthetic training samples from random solutions, and show that sequence-to-sequence transformers trained on such datasets perform better than algorithmic solvers and humans on polynomial systems, and can discover new Lyapunov functions for non-polynomial systems.

Recurrent neural network is a powerful model that learns temporal patterns in sequential data. For a long time, it was believed that recurrent networks are difficult to train using simple optimizers, such as stochastic gradient descent, due to the so-called vanishing gradient problem. In this paper, we show that learning longer term patterns in real data, such as in natural language, is perfectly possible using gradient descent. This is achieved by using a slight structural modification of the simple recurrent neural network architecture. We encourage some of the hidden units to change their state slowly by making part of the recurrent weight matrix close to identity, thus forming kind of a longer term memory. We evaluate our model in language modeling experiments, where we obtain similar performance to the much more complex Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks (Hochreiter & Schmidhuber, 1997).