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Oct 28

Leveraging Side Information for Ligand Conformation Generation using Diffusion-Based Approaches

Ligand molecule conformation generation is a critical challenge in drug discovery. Deep learning models have been developed to tackle this problem, particularly through the use of generative models in recent years. However, these models often generate conformations that lack meaningful structure and randomness due to the absence of essential side information. Examples of such side information include the chemical and geometric features of the target protein, ligand-target compound interactions, and ligand chemical properties. Without these constraints, the generated conformations may not be suitable for further selection and design of new drugs. To address this limitation, we propose a novel method for generating ligand conformations that leverage side information and incorporate flexible constraints into standard diffusion models. Drawing inspiration from the concept of message passing, we introduce ligand-target massage passing block, a mechanism that facilitates the exchange of information between target nodes and ligand nodes, thereby incorporating target node features. To capture non-covalent interactions, we introduce ligand-target compound inter and intra edges. To further improve the biological relevance of the generated conformations, we train energy models using scalar chemical features. These models guide the progress of the standard Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, resulting in more biologically meaningful conformations. We evaluate the performance of SIDEGEN using the PDBBind-2020 dataset, comparing it against other methods. The results demonstrate improvements in both Aligned RMSD and Ligand RMSD evaluations. Specifically, our model outperforms GeoDiff (trained on PDBBind-2020) by 20% in terms of the median aligned RMSD metric.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

Site-Level Fine-Tuning with Progressive Layer Freezing: Towards Robust Prediction of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia from Day-1 Chest Radiographs in Extremely Preterm Infants

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

  • 16 authors
·
Jul 16

ClinBench-HPB: A Clinical Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs in Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Diseases

Hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) disorders represent a global public health challenge due to their high morbidity and mortality. Although large language models (LLMs) have shown promising performance in general medical question-answering tasks, the current evaluation benchmarks are mostly derived from standardized examinations or manually designed questions, lacking HPB coverage and clinical cases. To address these issues, we systematically eatablish an HPB disease evaluation benchmark comprising 3,535 closed-ended multiple-choice questions and 337 open-ended real diagnosis cases, which encompasses all the 33 main categories and 465 subcategories of HPB diseases defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). The multiple-choice questions are curated from public datasets and synthesized data, and the clinical cases are collected from prestigious medical journals, case-sharing platforms, and collaborating hospitals. By evalauting commercial and open-source general and medical LLMs on our established benchmark, namely ClinBench-HBP, we find that while commercial LLMs perform competently on medical exam questions, they exhibit substantial performance degradation on HPB diagnosis tasks, especially on complex, inpatient clinical cases. Those medical LLMs also show limited generalizability to HPB diseases. Our results reveal the critical limitations of current LLMs in the domain of HPB diseases, underscoring the imperative need for future medical LLMs to handle real, complex clinical diagnostics rather than simple medical exam questions. The benchmark will be released at https://clinbench-hpb.github.io.

  • 6 authors
·
May 30

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

  • 96 authors
·
Feb 9, 2020

Benchmarking Computational Methods for Emerging Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction

Motivation: Emerging drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction is crucial for new drugs but is hindered by distribution changes between known and new drugs in real-world scenarios. Current evaluation often neglects these changes, relying on unrealistic i.i.d. split due to the absence of drug approval data. Results: We propose DDI-Ben, a benchmarking framework for emerging DDI prediction under distribution changes. DDI-Ben introduces a distribution change simulation framework that leverages distribution changes between drug sets as a surrogate for real-world distribution changes of DDIs, and is compatible with various drug split strategies. Through extensive benchmarking on ten representative methods, we show that most existing approaches suffer substantial performance degradation under distribution changes. Our analysis further indicates that large language model (LLM) based methods and the integration of drug-related textual information offer promising robustness against such degradation. To support future research, we release the benchmark datasets with simulated distribution changes. Overall, DDI-Ben highlights the importance of explicitly addressing distribution changes and provides a foundation for developing more resilient methods for emerging DDI prediction. Availability and implementation: Our code and data are available at https://github.com/LARS-research/DDI-Bench.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 24, 2024

AD-BERT: Using Pre-trained contextualized embeddings to Predict the Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

  • 12 authors
·
Nov 6, 2022

A Large-Scale Dataset of Search Interests Related to Disease X Originating from Different Geographic Regions

The World Health Organization added Disease X to their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. During different virus outbreaks of the past, such as COVID-19, Influenza, Lyme Disease, and Zika virus, researchers from various disciplines utilized Google Trends to mine multimodal components of web behavior to study, investigate, and analyze the global awareness, preparedness, and response associated with these respective virus outbreaks. As the world prepares for Disease X, a dataset on web behavior related to Disease X would be crucial to contribute towards the timely advancement of research in this field. Furthermore, none of the prior works in this field have focused on the development of a dataset to compile relevant web behavior data, which would help to prepare for Disease X. To address these research challenges, this work presents a dataset of web behavior related to Disease X, which emerged from different geographic regions of the world, between February 2018 and August 2023. Specifically, this dataset presents the search interests related to Disease X from 94 geographic regions. The dataset was developed by collecting data using Google Trends. The relevant search interests for all these regions for each month in this time range are available in this dataset. This paper also discusses the compliance of this dataset with the FAIR principles of scientific data management. Finally, an analysis of this dataset is presented to uphold the applicability, relevance, and usefulness of this dataset for the investigation of different research questions in the interrelated fields of Big Data, Data Mining, Healthcare, Epidemiology, and Data Analysis with a specific focus on Disease X.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 19, 2023

BreastDCEDL: A Comprehensive Breast Cancer DCE-MRI Dataset and Transformer Implementation for Treatment Response Prediction

Breast cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, making early detection and accurate treatment response monitoring critical priorities. We present BreastDCEDL, a curated, deep learning-ready dataset comprising pre-treatment 3D Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) scans from 2,070 breast cancer patients drawn from the I-SPY1, I-SPY2, and Duke cohorts, all sourced from The Cancer Imaging Archive. The raw DICOM imaging data were rigorously converted into standardized 3D NIfTI volumes with preserved signal integrity, accompanied by unified tumor annotations and harmonized clinical metadata including pathologic complete response (pCR), hormone receptor (HR), and HER2 status. Although DCE-MRI provides essential diagnostic information and deep learning offers tremendous potential for analyzing such complex data, progress has been limited by lack of accessible, public, multicenter datasets. BreastDCEDL addresses this gap by enabling development of advanced models, including state-of-the-art transformer architectures that require substantial training data. To demonstrate its capacity for robust modeling, we developed the first transformer-based model for breast DCE-MRI, leveraging Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture trained on RGB-fused images from three contrast phases (pre-contrast, early post-contrast, and late post-contrast). Our ViT model achieved state-of-the-art pCR prediction performance in HR+/HER2- patients (AUC 0.94, accuracy 0.93). BreastDCEDL includes predefined benchmark splits, offering a framework for reproducible research and enabling clinically meaningful modeling in breast cancer imaging.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 13

RareBench: Can LLMs Serve as Rare Diseases Specialists?

Generalist Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4, have shown considerable promise in various domains, including medical diagnosis. Rare diseases, affecting approximately 300 million people worldwide, often have unsatisfactory clinical diagnosis rates primarily due to a lack of experienced physicians and the complexity of differentiating among many rare diseases. In this context, recent news such as "ChatGPT correctly diagnosed a 4-year-old's rare disease after 17 doctors failed" underscore LLMs' potential, yet underexplored, role in clinically diagnosing rare diseases. To bridge this research gap, we introduce RareBench, a pioneering benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the capabilities of LLMs on 4 critical dimensions within the realm of rare diseases. Meanwhile, we have compiled the largest open-source dataset on rare disease patients, establishing a benchmark for future studies in this domain. To facilitate differential diagnosis of rare diseases, we develop a dynamic few-shot prompt methodology, leveraging a comprehensive rare disease knowledge graph synthesized from multiple knowledge bases, significantly enhancing LLMs' diagnostic performance. Moreover, we present an exhaustive comparative study of GPT-4's diagnostic capabilities against those of specialist physicians. Our experimental findings underscore the promising potential of integrating LLMs into the clinical diagnostic process for rare diseases. This paves the way for exciting possibilities in future advancements in this field.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 9, 2024

Realism in Action: Anomaly-Aware Diagnosis of Brain Tumors from Medical Images Using YOLOv8 and DeiT

In the field of medical sciences, reliable detection and classification of brain tumors from images remains a formidable challenge due to the rarity of tumors within the population of patients. Therefore, the ability to detect tumors in anomaly scenarios is paramount for ensuring timely interventions and improved patient outcomes. This study addresses the issue by leveraging deep learning (DL) techniques to detect and classify brain tumors in challenging situations. The curated data set from the National Brain Mapping Lab (NBML) comprises 81 patients, including 30 Tumor cases and 51 Normal cases. The detection and classification pipelines are separated into two consecutive tasks. The detection phase involved comprehensive data analysis and pre-processing to modify the number of image samples and the number of patients of each class to anomaly distribution (9 Normal per 1 Tumor) to comply with real world scenarios. Next, in addition to common evaluation metrics for the testing, we employed a novel performance evaluation method called Patient to Patient (PTP), focusing on the realistic evaluation of the model. In the detection phase, we fine-tuned a YOLOv8n detection model to detect the tumor region. Subsequent testing and evaluation yielded competitive performance both in Common Evaluation Metrics and PTP metrics. Furthermore, using the Data Efficient Image Transformer (DeiT) module, we distilled a Vision Transformer (ViT) model from a fine-tuned ResNet152 as a teacher in the classification phase. This approach demonstrates promising strides in reliable tumor detection and classification, offering potential advancements in tumor diagnosis for real-world medical imaging scenarios.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 6, 2024

PVBM: A Python Vasculature Biomarker Toolbox Based On Retinal Blood Vessel Segmentation

Introduction: Blood vessels can be non-invasively visualized from a digital fundus image (DFI). Several studies have shown an association between cardiovascular risk and vascular features obtained from DFI. Recent advances in computer vision and image segmentation enable automatising DFI blood vessel segmentation. There is a need for a resource that can automatically compute digital vasculature biomarkers (VBM) from these segmented DFI. Methods: In this paper, we introduce a Python Vasculature BioMarker toolbox, denoted PVBM. A total of 11 VBMs were implemented. In particular, we introduce new algorithmic methods to estimate tortuosity and branching angles. Using PVBM, and as a proof of usability, we analyze geometric vascular differences between glaucomatous patients and healthy controls. Results: We built a fully automated vasculature biomarker toolbox based on DFI segmentations and provided a proof of usability to characterize the vascular changes in glaucoma. For arterioles and venules, all biomarkers were significant and lower in glaucoma patients compared to healthy controls except for tortuosity, venular singularity length and venular branching angles. Conclusion: We have automated the computation of 11 VBMs from retinal blood vessel segmentation. The PVBM toolbox is made open source under a GNU GPL 3 license and is available on physiozoo.com (following publication).

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 31, 2022

Individualizing Glioma Radiotherapy Planning by Optimization of Data and Physics-Informed Discrete Loss

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 8, 2023

PMC-Patients: A Large-scale Dataset of Patient Notes and Relations Extracted from Case Reports in PubMed Central

Objective: Data unavailability has been one of the biggest barriers in clinical natural language processing. This paper is aimed at providing a large-scale and publicly available patient note dataset, named PMC-Patients, with relevant articles and similar patients annotations. The ultimate goal of PMC-Patients is to facilitate the development of retrieval-based clinical decision support systems. Materials and Methods: To collect PMC-Patients, we extract patient notes from case reports in PubMed Central by recognizing certain section patterns. Patient-article relevance and patient-patient similarity are annotated by citation relationships in PubMed. In addition, we perform three tasks with PMC-Patients to demonstrate its utility in providing clinical decision support for a given patient, including (1) classifying whether another patient is similar, (2) retrieving similar patients in PMC-Patients, and (3) retrieving relevant articles in PubMed. Results: We collect and release PMC-Patients under the CC BY-NC-SA license, which becomes the largest publicly available patient note dataset so far. PMC-Patients contains 167k patient notes that are annotated with 3.1M relevant articles and 293k similar patients. Qualitative and quantitative analyses reveal the high quality and richness of our dataset. Experiments show that classifying the similarity of patient pairs is relatively easy, but it is hard to retrieve similar patients or relevant articles for a given patient from a large set of candidates. Conclusion: We present PMC-Patients, a large-scale dataset of patient notes with high quality, easy access, diverse conditions, and rich annotations. The proposed dataset can also serve as a hard benchmark for evaluating retrieval-based clinical decision support systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 28, 2022

Potential of Multimodal Large Language Models for Data Mining of Medical Images and Free-text Reports

Medical images and radiology reports are crucial for diagnosing medical conditions, highlighting the importance of quantitative analysis for clinical decision-making. However, the diversity and cross-source heterogeneity of these data challenge the generalizability of current data-mining methods. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently transformed many domains, significantly affecting the medical field. Notably, Gemini-Vision-series (Gemini) and GPT-4-series (GPT-4) models have epitomized a paradigm shift in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for computer vision, showcasing their potential in the biomedical domain. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Gemini, GPT-4, and 4 popular large models for an exhaustive evaluation across 14 medical imaging datasets, including 5 medical imaging categories (dermatology, radiology, dentistry, ophthalmology, and endoscopy), and 3 radiology report datasets. The investigated tasks encompass disease classification, lesion segmentation, anatomical localization, disease diagnosis, report generation, and lesion detection. Our experimental results demonstrated that Gemini-series models excelled in report generation and lesion detection but faces challenges in disease classification and anatomical localization. Conversely, GPT-series models exhibited proficiency in lesion segmentation and anatomical localization but encountered difficulties in disease diagnosis and lesion detection. Additionally, both the Gemini series and GPT series contain models that have demonstrated commendable generation efficiency. While both models hold promise in reducing physician workload, alleviating pressure on limited healthcare resources, and fostering collaboration between clinical practitioners and artificial intelligence technologies, substantial enhancements and comprehensive validations remain imperative before clinical deployment.

  • 14 authors
·
Jul 8, 2024

The KiTS21 Challenge: Automatic segmentation of kidneys, renal tumors, and renal cysts in corticomedullary-phase CT

This paper presents the challenge report for the 2021 Kidney and Kidney Tumor Segmentation Challenge (KiTS21) held in conjunction with the 2021 international conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Interventions (MICCAI). KiTS21 is a sequel to its first edition in 2019, and it features a variety of innovations in how the challenge was designed, in addition to a larger dataset. A novel annotation method was used to collect three separate annotations for each region of interest, and these annotations were performed in a fully transparent setting using a web-based annotation tool. Further, the KiTS21 test set was collected from an outside institution, challenging participants to develop methods that generalize well to new populations. Nonetheless, the top-performing teams achieved a significant improvement over the state of the art set in 2019, and this performance is shown to inch ever closer to human-level performance. An in-depth meta-analysis is presented describing which methods were used and how they faired on the leaderboard, as well as the characteristics of which cases generally saw good performance, and which did not. Overall KiTS21 facilitated a significant advancement in the state of the art in kidney tumor segmentation, and provides useful insights that are applicable to the field of semantic segmentation as a whole.

  • 45 authors
·
Jul 4, 2023

Generalized Additive Modeling of TRPM4-Ribo Transcriptional Space in Prostate Cancer

TRPM4 is overexpressed in prostate cancer (PCa) associated with metastasis or recurrence. There is paucity of information pertaining to TRPM4 characterization and functions at single-cell level in PCa. In this study, generalized additive model (GAM) was utilized to model the relationship between TRPM4 and genes shortlisted using Spearman-Kendall dual-filter in aggressive PCa and benign prostate (BP) control cells derived from scRNA-seq dataset. Seven ribosomal genes (RPL10, RPL27, RPL28, RPS2, RPS8, RPS12, and RPS26; averaged into Ribo as the gene set), passed the dual-filter specifically in PCa cells. GAM modeling of TRPM4-Ribo significantly outperformed TRPM4 modeling with alternative cancer gene sets (GSK-3B, mTOR, NF-KB, PI3K/AKT, and Wnt). Cell explanatory power (CEP) classification was devised and verified by cross-validation to identify individual PCa cells most well-predicted by the model. CEP classification binarized PCa cells into top-ranked explanatory power (TREP; more well-predicted by the model) and non-TREP cells. In TRPM4-Ribo GAM plots, distribution pattern of TREP cells shifted at an inflection point (IP) i.e., the specific TRPM4 expression value that further binarized the plot into pre-IP (TRPM4 values below IP) and post-IP (TRPM4 values above IP) regions, producing a quadrant of TREP versus non-TREP cells for each PCa patient. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis showed that pre-IP TREP cells enriched for immune-related GOs, while post-IP TREP cells enriched for ribosomal, translation, and cell adhesion GOs. In conclusion, the CEP-IP framework based on pairwise genes produces quadrants of cancer cell subpopulations, enabling the identification of distinctive biology with potential therapeutic implications.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 15

Can Generalist Foundation Models Outcompete Special-Purpose Tuning? Case Study in Medicine

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

  • 18 authors
·
Nov 27, 2023

Patherea: Cell Detection and Classification for the 2020s

This paper presents a Patherea, a framework for point-based cell detection and classification that provides a complete solution for developing and evaluating state-of-the-art approaches. We introduce a large-scale dataset collected to directly replicate a clinical workflow for Ki-67 proliferation index estimation and use it to develop an efficient point-based approach that directly predicts point-based predictions, without the need for intermediate representations. The proposed approach effectively utilizes point proposal candidates with the hybrid Hungarian matching strategy and a flexible architecture that enables the usage of various backbones and (pre)training strategies. We report state-of-the-art results on existing public datasets - Lizard, BRCA-M2C, BCData, and the newly proposed Patherea dataset. We show that the performance on existing public datasets is saturated and that the newly proposed Patherea dataset represents a significantly harder challenge for the recently proposed approaches. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of recently proposed pathology foundational models that our proposed approach can natively utilize and benefit from. We also revisit the evaluation protocol that is used in the broader field of cell detection and classification and identify the erroneous calculation of performance metrics. Patherea provides a benchmarking utility that addresses the identified issues and enables a fair comparison of different approaches. The dataset and the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 20, 2024

Enhancing Spatiotemporal Disease Progression Models via Latent Diffusion and Prior Knowledge

In this work, we introduce Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal disease progression model based on latent diffusion. BrLP is designed to predict the evolution of diseases at the individual level on 3D brain MRIs. Existing deep generative models developed for this task are primarily data-driven and face challenges in learning disease progressions. BrLP addresses these challenges by incorporating prior knowledge from disease models to enhance the accuracy of predictions. To implement this, we propose to integrate an auxiliary model that infers volumetric changes in various brain regions. Additionally, we introduce Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), a novel technique to improve spatiotemporal consistency of the predicted progression. BrLP is trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 11,730 T1-weighted brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects, collected from three publicly available, longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease (AD) studies. In our experiments, we compare the MRI scans generated by BrLP with the actual follow-up MRIs available from the subjects, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. BrLP demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods, with an increase of 22% in volumetric accuracy across AD-related brain regions and 43% in image similarity to the ground-truth scans. The ability of BrLP to generate conditioned 3D scans at the subject level, along with the novelty of integrating prior knowledge to enhance accuracy, represents a significant advancement in disease progression modeling, opening new avenues for precision medicine. The code of BrLP is available at the following link: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.

  • 3 authors
·
May 6, 2024

POCOVID-Net: Automatic Detection of COVID-19 From a New Lung Ultrasound Imaging Dataset (POCUS)

With the rapid development of COVID-19 into a global pandemic, there is an ever more urgent need for cheap, fast and reliable tools that can assist physicians in diagnosing COVID-19. Medical imaging such as CT can take a key role in complementing conventional diagnostic tools from molecular biology, and, using deep learning techniques, several automatic systems were demonstrated promising performances using CT or X-ray data. Here, we advocate a more prominent role of point-of-care ultrasound imaging to guide COVID-19 detection. Ultrasound is non-invasive and ubiquitous in medical facilities around the globe. Our contribution is threefold. First, we gather a lung ultrasound (POCUS) dataset consisting of 1103 images (654 COVID-19, 277 bacterial pneumonia and 172 healthy controls), sampled from 64 videos. This dataset was assembled from various online sources, processed specifically for deep learning models and is intended to serve as a starting point for an open-access initiative. Second, we train a deep convolutional neural network (POCOVID-Net) on this 3-class dataset and achieve an accuracy of 89% and, by a majority vote, a video accuracy of 92% . For detecting COVID-19 in particular, the model performs with a sensitivity of 0.96, a specificity of 0.79 and F1-score of 0.92 in a 5-fold cross validation. Third, we provide an open-access web service (POCOVIDScreen) that is available at: https://pocovidscreen.org. The website deploys the predictive model, allowing to perform predictions on ultrasound lung images. In addition, it grants medical staff the option to (bulk) upload their own screenings in order to contribute to the growing public database of pathological lung ultrasound images. Dataset and code are available from: https://github.com/jannisborn/covid19_pocus_ultrasound. NOTE: This preprint is superseded by our paper in Applied Sciences: https://doi.org/10.3390/app11020672

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 25, 2020

A general language model for peptide identification

Advances in peptide identification are revolutionizing our ability to decipher protein functions and accelerate therapeutic discovery. We present PDeepPP, a deep learning framework that integrates pretrained protein language models with parallel transformer-CNN architectures, achieving state-of-the-art performance in peptide characterization tasks. The model's hybrid architecture demonstrates unique capabilities in capturing both local sequence motifs and global structural features, as evidenced by 29% improved cluster separation in UMAP visualizations compared to conventional approaches. Evaluated across 33 biological recognition tasks - including post-translational modification site prediction and bioactive peptide identification - PDeepPP outperformed existing methods in 25 tasks with average AUC improvements of 4.2%. Notably, it achieved 0.9726 accuracy with PR AUC 0.9977 in antimicrobial peptide detection while reducing false negatives by 37.5% in antimalarial recognition scenarios. This framework enables accurate large-scale peptide analysis, achieving 218* acceleration over sequence-alignment-based methods while maintaining 99.5% specificity in critical glycosylation site detection.PDeepPP establishes a new paradigm for computational peptide analysis through its synergistic architecture design, enabling rapid yet precise functional annotation that bridges molecular pattern recognition with translational biomedical applications.We have made our implementation, including code, data, and pretrained models, publicly available via GitHub (https://github.com/fondress/PDeepPP) and Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/fondress/PDeppPP).

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 21

DengueNet: Dengue Prediction using Spatiotemporal Satellite Imagery for Resource-Limited Countries

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

  • 12 authors
·
Jan 19, 2024

The EpiBench Platform to Propel AI/ML-based Epidemic Forecasting: A Prototype Demonstration Reaching Human Expert-level Performance

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

  • 3 authors
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Feb 4, 2021

Enhancing End Stage Renal Disease Outcome Prediction: A Multi-Sourced Data-Driven Approach

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 1, 2024

Artificial Intelligence-derived Vascular Age from Photoplethysmography: A Novel Digital Biomarker for Cardiovascular Health

With the increasing availability of wearable devices, photoplethysmography (PPG) has emerged as a promising non-invasive tool for monitoring human hemodynamics. We propose a deep learning framework to estimate vascular age (AI-vascular age) from PPG signals, incorporating a distribution-aware loss to address biases caused by imbalanced data. The model was developed using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), with 98,672 participants in the development cohort and 113,559 participants (144,683 data pairs) for clinical evaluation. After adjusting for key confounders, individuals with a vascular age gap (AI-vascular age minus calendar age) exceeding 9 years had a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (HR = 2.37, p < 0.005) and secondary outcomes, including diabetes (HR = 2.69, p < 0.005), hypertension (HR = 2.88, p < 0.005), coronary heart disease (HR = 2.20, p < 0.005), heart failure (HR = 2.15, p < 0.005), myocardial infarction (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005), stroke (HR = 2.55, p < 0.005), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005). Conversely, participants with a vascular age gap below -9 years exhibited a significantly lower incidence of these outcomes. We further evaluated the longitudinal applicability of AI-vascular age using serial PPG data from the UKB, demonstrating its value in risk stratification by leveraging AI-vascular age at two distinct time points to predict future MACCE incidence. External validation was performed on a MIMIC-III-derived cohort (n = 2,343), where each one-year increase in vascular age gap was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality risk (OR = 1.02, p < 0.005). In conclusion, our study establishes AI-vascular age as a novel, non-invasive digital biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment.

  • 5 authors
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Feb 18

Optimizing Brain Tumor Segmentation with MedNeXt: BraTS 2024 SSA and Pediatrics

Identifying key pathological features in brain MRIs is crucial for the long-term survival of glioma patients. However, manual segmentation is time-consuming, requiring expert intervention and is susceptible to human error. Therefore, significant research has been devoted to developing machine learning methods that can accurately segment tumors in 3D multimodal brain MRI scans. Despite their progress, state-of-the-art models are often limited by the data they are trained on, raising concerns about their reliability when applied to diverse populations that may introduce distribution shifts. Such shifts can stem from lower quality MRI technology (e.g., in sub-Saharan Africa) or variations in patient demographics (e.g., children). The BraTS-2024 challenge provides a platform to address these issues. This study presents our methodology for segmenting tumors in the BraTS-2024 SSA and Pediatric Tumors tasks using MedNeXt, comprehensive model ensembling, and thorough postprocessing. Our approach demonstrated strong performance on the unseen validation set, achieving an average Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) of 0.896 on the BraTS-2024 SSA dataset and an average DSC of 0.830 on the BraTS Pediatric Tumor dataset. Additionally, our method achieved an average Hausdorff Distance (HD95) of 14.682 on the BraTS-2024 SSA dataset and an average HD95 of 37.508 on the BraTS Pediatric dataset. Our GitHub repository can be accessed here: Project Repository : https://github.com/python-arch/BioMbz-Optimizing-Brain-Tumor-Segmentation-with-MedNeXt-BraTS-2024-SSA-and-Pediatrics

  • 9 authors
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Nov 24, 2024 2

Automatic Differential Diagnosis using Transformer-Based Multi-Label Sequence Classification

As the field of artificial intelligence progresses, assistive technologies are becoming more widely used across all industries. The healthcare industry is no different, with numerous studies being done to develop assistive tools for healthcare professionals. Automatic diagnostic systems are one such beneficial tool that can assist with a variety of tasks, including collecting patient information, analyzing test results, and diagnosing patients. However, the idea of developing systems that can provide a differential diagnosis has been largely overlooked in most of these research studies. In this study, we propose a transformer-based approach for providing differential diagnoses based on a patient's age, sex, medical history, and symptoms. We use the DDXPlus dataset, which provides differential diagnosis information for patients based on 49 disease types. Firstly, we propose a method to process the tabular patient data from the dataset and engineer them into patient reports to make them suitable for our research. In addition, we introduce two data modification modules to diversify the training data and consequently improve the robustness of the models. We approach the task as a multi-label classification problem and conduct extensive experiments using four transformer models. All the models displayed promising results by achieving over 97% F1 score on the held-out test set. Moreover, we design additional behavioral tests to get a broader understanding of the models. In particular, for one of our test cases, we prepared a custom test set of 100 samples with the assistance of a doctor. The results on the custom set showed that our proposed data modification modules improved the model's generalization capabilities. We hope our findings will provide future researchers with valuable insights and inspire them to develop reliable systems for automatic differential diagnosis.

  • 3 authors
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Aug 28, 2024 1

An Integrated Optimization and Machine Learning Models to Predict the Admission Status of Emergency Patients

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 18, 2022

Benchmarking for Public Health Surveillance tasks on Social Media with a Domain-Specific Pretrained Language Model

A user-generated text on social media enables health workers to keep track of information, identify possible outbreaks, forecast disease trends, monitor emergency cases, and ascertain disease awareness and response to official health correspondence. This exchange of health information on social media has been regarded as an attempt to enhance public health surveillance (PHS). Despite its potential, the technology is still in its early stages and is not ready for widespread application. Advancements in pretrained language models (PLMs) have facilitated the development of several domain-specific PLMs and a variety of downstream applications. However, there are no PLMs for social media tasks involving PHS. We present and release PHS-BERT, a transformer-based PLM, to identify tasks related to public health surveillance on social media. We compared and benchmarked the performance of PHS-BERT on 25 datasets from different social medial platforms related to 7 different PHS tasks. Compared with existing PLMs that are mainly evaluated on limited tasks, PHS-BERT achieved state-of-the-art performance on all 25 tested datasets, showing that our PLM is robust and generalizable in the common PHS tasks. By making PHS-BERT available, we aim to facilitate the community to reduce the computational cost and introduce new baselines for future works across various PHS-related tasks.

  • 5 authors
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Apr 9, 2022

Frequency Prior Guided Matching: A Data Augmentation Approach for Generalizable Semi-Supervised Polyp Segmentation

Automated polyp segmentation is essential for early diagnosis of colorectal cancer, yet developing robust models remains challenging due to limited annotated data and significant performance degradation under domain shift. Although semi-supervised learning (SSL) reduces annotation requirements, existing methods rely on generic augmentations that ignore polyp-specific structural properties, resulting in poor generalization to new imaging centers and devices. To address this, we introduce Frequency Prior Guided Matching (FPGM), a novel augmentation framework built on a key discovery: polyp edges exhibit a remarkably consistent frequency signature across diverse datasets. FPGM leverages this intrinsic regularity in a two-stage process. It first learns a domain-invariant frequency prior from the edge regions of labeled polyps. Then, it performs principled spectral perturbations on unlabeled images, aligning their amplitude spectra with this learned prior while preserving phase information to maintain structural integrity. This targeted alignment normalizes domain-specific textural variations, thereby compelling the model to learn the underlying, generalizable anatomical structure. Validated on six public datasets, FPGM establishes a new state-of-the-art against ten competing methods. It demonstrates exceptional zero-shot generalization capabilities, achieving over 10% absolute gain in Dice score in data-scarce scenarios. By significantly enhancing cross-domain robustness, FPGM presents a powerful solution for clinically deployable polyp segmentation under limited supervision.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 30

Towards a Personal Health Large Language Model

In health, most large language model (LLM) research has focused on clinical tasks. However, mobile and wearable devices, which are rarely integrated into such tasks, provide rich, longitudinal data for personal health monitoring. Here we present Personal Health Large Language Model (PH-LLM), fine-tuned from Gemini for understanding and reasoning over numerical time-series personal health data. We created and curated three datasets that test 1) production of personalized insights and recommendations from sleep patterns, physical activity, and physiological responses, 2) expert domain knowledge, and 3) prediction of self-reported sleep outcomes. For the first task we designed 857 case studies in collaboration with domain experts to assess real-world scenarios in sleep and fitness. Through comprehensive evaluation of domain-specific rubrics, we observed that Gemini Ultra 1.0 and PH-LLM are not statistically different from expert performance in fitness and, while experts remain superior for sleep, fine-tuning PH-LLM provided significant improvements in using relevant domain knowledge and personalizing information for sleep insights. We evaluated PH-LLM domain knowledge using multiple choice sleep medicine and fitness examinations. PH-LLM achieved 79% on sleep and 88% on fitness, exceeding average scores from a sample of human experts. Finally, we trained PH-LLM to predict self-reported sleep quality outcomes from textual and multimodal encoding representations of wearable data, and demonstrate that multimodal encoding is required to match performance of specialized discriminative models. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical personal health domain, these results demonstrate both the broad knowledge and capabilities of Gemini models and the benefit of contextualizing physiological data for personal health applications as done with PH-LLM.

  • 34 authors
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Jun 10, 2024

A Novel Self-Learning Framework for Bladder Cancer Grading Using Histopathological Images

Recently, bladder cancer has been significantly increased in terms of incidence and mortality. Currently, two subtypes are known based on tumour growth: non-muscle invasive (NMIBC) and muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). In this work, we focus on the MIBC subtype because it is of the worst prognosis and can spread to adjacent organs. We present a self-learning framework to grade bladder cancer from histological images stained via immunohistochemical techniques. Specifically, we propose a novel Deep Convolutional Embedded Attention Clustering (DCEAC) which allows classifying histological patches into different severity levels of the disease, according to the patterns established in the literature. The proposed DCEAC model follows a two-step fully unsupervised learning methodology to discern between non-tumour, mild and infiltrative patterns from high-resolution samples of 512x512 pixels. Our system outperforms previous clustering-based methods by including a convolutional attention module, which allows refining the features of the latent space before the classification stage. The proposed network exceeds state-of-the-art approaches by 2-3% across different metrics, achieving a final average accuracy of 0.9034 in a multi-class scenario. Furthermore, the reported class activation maps evidence that our model is able to learn by itself the same patterns that clinicians consider relevant, without incurring prior annotation steps. This fact supposes a breakthrough in muscle-invasive bladder cancer grading which bridges the gap with respect to train the model on labelled data.

  • 5 authors
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Jun 25, 2021

Development and evaluation of intraoperative ultrasound segmentation with negative image frames and multiple observer labels

When developing deep neural networks for segmenting intraoperative ultrasound images, several practical issues are encountered frequently, such as the presence of ultrasound frames that do not contain regions of interest and the high variance in ground-truth labels. In this study, we evaluate the utility of a pre-screening classification network prior to the segmentation network. Experimental results demonstrate that such a classifier, minimising frame classification errors, was able to directly impact the number of false positive and false negative frames. Importantly, the segmentation accuracy on the classifier-selected frames, that would be segmented, remains comparable to or better than those from standalone segmentation networks. Interestingly, the efficacy of the pre-screening classifier was affected by the sampling methods for training labels from multiple observers, a seemingly independent problem. We show experimentally that a previously proposed approach, combining random sampling and consensus labels, may need to be adapted to perform well in our application. Furthermore, this work aims to share practical experience in developing a machine learning application that assists highly variable interventional imaging for prostate cancer patients, to present robust and reproducible open-source implementations, and to report a set of comprehensive results and analysis comparing these practical, yet important, options in a real-world clinical application.

  • 11 authors
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Jul 28, 2021

Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 17, 2023

Foresight -- Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) for Modelling of Patient Timelines using EHRs

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

  • 12 authors
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Dec 13, 2022

DISPROTBENCH: A Disorder-Aware, Task-Rich Benchmark for Evaluating Protein Structure Prediction in Realistic Biological Contexts

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

  • 9 authors
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Jun 18

Red Teaming for Generative AI, Report on a Copyright-Focused Exercise Completed in an Academic Medical Center

Background: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) deployment in academic medical settings raises copyright compliance concerns. Dana-Farber Cancer Institute implemented GPT4DFCI, an internal generative AI tool utilizing OpenAI models, that is approved for enterprise use in research and operations. Given (1) the exceptionally broad adoption of the tool in our organization, (2) our research mission, and (3) the shared responsibility model required to benefit from Customer Copyright Commitment in Azure OpenAI Service products, we deemed rigorous copyright compliance testing necessary. Case Description: We conducted a structured red teaming exercise in Nov. 2024, with 42 participants from academic, industry, and government institutions. Four teams attempted to extract copyrighted content from GPT4DFCI across four domains: literary works, news articles, scientific publications, and access-restricted clinical notes. Teams successfully extracted verbatim book dedications and near-exact passages through various strategies. News article extraction failed despite jailbreak attempts. Scientific article reproduction yielded only high-level summaries. Clinical note testing revealed appropriate privacy safeguards. Discussion: The successful extraction of literary content indicates potential copyrighted material presence in training data, necessitating inference-time filtering. Differential success rates across content types suggest varying protective mechanisms. The event led to implementation of a copyright-specific meta-prompt in GPT4DFCI; this mitigation has been in production since Jan. 2025. Conclusion: Systematic red teaming revealed specific vulnerabilities in generative AI copyright compliance, leading to concrete mitigation strategies. Academic medical institutions deploying generative AI should implement continuous testing protocols to ensure legal and ethical compliance.

  • 41 authors
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Jun 26

Current Pathology Foundation Models are unrobust to Medical Center Differences

Pathology Foundation Models (FMs) hold great promise for healthcare. Before they can be used in clinical practice, it is essential to ensure they are robust to variations between medical centers. We measure whether pathology FMs focus on biological features like tissue and cancer type, or on the well known confounding medical center signatures introduced by staining procedure and other differences. We introduce the Robustness Index. This novel robustness metric reflects to what degree biological features dominate confounding features. Ten current publicly available pathology FMs are evaluated. We find that all current pathology foundation models evaluated represent the medical center to a strong degree. Significant differences in the robustness index are observed. Only one model so far has a robustness index greater than one, meaning biological features dominate confounding features, but only slightly. A quantitative approach to measure the influence of medical center differences on FM-based prediction performance is described. We analyze the impact of unrobustness on classification performance of downstream models, and find that cancer-type classification errors are not random, but specifically attributable to same-center confounders: images of other classes from the same medical center. We visualize FM embedding spaces, and find these are more strongly organized by medical centers than by biological factors. As a consequence, the medical center of origin is predicted more accurately than the tissue source and cancer type. The robustness index introduced here is provided with the aim of advancing progress towards clinical adoption of robust and reliable pathology FMs.

  • 3 authors
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Jan 29 2

OpenMed NER: Open-Source, Domain-Adapted State-of-the-Art Transformers for Biomedical NER Across 12 Public Datasets

Named-entity recognition (NER) is fundamental to extracting structured information from the >80% of healthcare data that resides in unstructured clinical notes and biomedical literature. Despite recent advances with large language models, achieving state-of-the-art performance across diverse entity types while maintaining computational efficiency remains a significant challenge. We introduce OpenMed NER, a suite of open-source, domain-adapted transformer models that combine lightweight domain-adaptive pre-training (DAPT) with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Our approach performs cost-effective DAPT on a 350k-passage corpus compiled from ethically sourced, publicly available research repositories and de-identified clinical notes (PubMed, arXiv, and MIMIC-III) using DeBERTa-v3, PubMedBERT, and BioELECTRA backbones. This is followed by task-specific fine-tuning with LoRA, which updates less than 1.5% of model parameters. We evaluate our models on 12 established biomedical NER benchmarks spanning chemicals, diseases, genes, and species. OpenMed NER achieves new state-of-the-art micro-F1 scores on 10 of these 12 datasets, with substantial gains across diverse entity types. Our models advance the state-of-the-art on foundational disease and chemical benchmarks (e.g., BC5CDR-Disease, +2.70 pp), while delivering even larger improvements of over 5.3 and 9.7 percentage points on more specialized gene and clinical cell line corpora. This work demonstrates that strategically adapted open-source models can surpass closed-source solutions. This performance is achieved with remarkable efficiency: training completes in under 12 hours on a single GPU with a low carbon footprint (< 1.2 kg CO2e), producing permissively licensed, open-source checkpoints designed to help practitioners facilitate compliance with emerging data protection and AI regulations, such as the EU AI Act.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 3 4

Crowdsourcing Dermatology Images with Google Search Ads: Creating a Real-World Skin Condition Dataset

Background: Health datasets from clinical sources do not reflect the breadth and diversity of disease in the real world, impacting research, medical education, and artificial intelligence (AI) tool development. Dermatology is a suitable area to develop and test a new and scalable method to create representative health datasets. Methods: We used Google Search advertisements to invite contributions to an open access dataset of images of dermatology conditions, demographic and symptom information. With informed contributor consent, we describe and release this dataset containing 10,408 images from 5,033 contributions from internet users in the United States over 8 months starting March 2023. The dataset includes dermatologist condition labels as well as estimated Fitzpatrick Skin Type (eFST) and Monk Skin Tone (eMST) labels for the images. Results: We received a median of 22 submissions/day (IQR 14-30). Female (66.72%) and younger (52% < age 40) contributors had a higher representation in the dataset compared to the US population, and 32.6% of contributors reported a non-White racial or ethnic identity. Over 97.5% of contributions were genuine images of skin conditions. Dermatologist confidence in assigning a differential diagnosis increased with the number of available variables, and showed a weaker correlation with image sharpness (Spearman's P values <0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Most contributions were short-duration (54% with onset < 7 days ago ) and 89% were allergic, infectious, or inflammatory conditions. eFST and eMST distributions reflected the geographical origin of the dataset. The dataset is available at github.com/google-research-datasets/scin . Conclusion: Search ads are effective at crowdsourcing images of health conditions. The SCIN dataset bridges important gaps in the availability of representative images of common skin conditions.

  • 20 authors
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Feb 28, 2024