Daily Papers

Human trajectory prediction is typically posed as a zero-shot generalization problem: a predictor is learnt on a dataset of human motion in training scenes, and then deployed on unseen test scenes. While this paradigm has yielded tremendous progress, it fundamentally assumes that trends in human behavior within the deployment scene are constant over time. As such, current prediction models are unable to adapt to scene-specific transient human behaviors, such as crowds temporarily gathering to see buskers, pedestrians hurrying through the rain and avoiding puddles, or a protest breaking out. We formalize the problem of scene-specific adaptive trajectory prediction and propose a new adaptation approach inspired by prompt tuning called latent corridors. By augmenting the input of any pre-trained human trajectory predictor with learnable image prompts, the predictor can improve in the deployment scene by inferring trends from extremely small amounts of new data (e.g., 2 humans observed for 30 seconds). With less than 0.1% additional model parameters, we see up to 23.9% ADE improvement in MOTSynth simulated data and 16.4% ADE in MOT and Wildtrack real pedestrian data. Qualitatively, we observe that latent corridors imbue predictors with an awareness of scene geometry and scene-specific human behaviors that non-adaptive predictors struggle to capture. The project website can be found at https://neerja.me/atp_latent_corridors/.

This paper introduces PowerInfer, a high-speed Large Language Model (LLM) inference engine on a personal computer (PC) equipped with a single consumer-grade GPU. The key underlying the design of PowerInfer is exploiting the high locality inherent in LLM inference, characterized by a power-law distribution in neuron activation. This distribution indicates that a small subset of neurons, termed hot neurons, are consistently activated across inputs, while the majority, cold neurons, vary based on specific inputs. PowerInfer exploits such an insight to design a GPU-CPU hybrid inference engine: hot-activated neurons are preloaded onto the GPU for fast access, while cold-activated neurons are computed on the CPU, thus significantly reducing GPU memory demands and CPU-GPU data transfers. PowerInfer further integrates adaptive predictors and neuron-aware sparse operators, optimizing the efficiency of neuron activation and computational sparsity. Evaluation shows that PowerInfer attains an average token generation rate of 13.20 tokens/s, with a peak of 29.08 tokens/s, across various LLMs (including OPT-175B) on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPU, only 18% lower than that achieved by a top-tier server-grade A100 GPU. This significantly outperforms llama.cpp by up to 11.69x while retaining model accuracy.

In multilingual settings, non-Latin scripts and low-resource languages are usually disadvantaged in terms of language models' utility, efficiency, and cost. Specifically, previous studies have reported multiple modeling biases that the current tokenization algorithms introduce to non-Latin script languages, the main one being over-segmentation. In this work, we propose MAGNET; multilingual adaptive gradient-based tokenization to reduce over-segmentation via adaptive gradient-based subword tokenization. MAGNET learns to predict segment boundaries between byte tokens in a sequence via sub-modules within the model, which act as internal boundary predictors (tokenizers). Previous gradient-based tokenization methods aimed for uniform compression across sequences by integrating a single boundary predictor during training and optimizing it end-to-end through stochastic reparameterization alongside the next token prediction objective. However, this approach still results in over-segmentation for non-Latin script languages in multilingual settings. In contrast, MAGNET offers a customizable architecture where byte-level sequences are routed through language-script-specific predictors, each optimized for its respective language script. This modularity enforces equitable segmentation granularity across different language scripts compared to previous methods. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that in addition to reducing segmentation disparities, MAGNET also enables faster language modelling and improves downstream utility.

Training a large-scale deep neural network in a large-scale dataset is challenging and time-consuming. The recent breakthrough of large-batch optimization is a promising way to tackle this challenge. However, although the current advanced algorithms such as LARS and LAMB succeed in classification models, the complicated pipelines of dense visual predictions such as object detection and segmentation still suffer from the heavy performance drop in the large-batch training regime. To address this challenge, we propose a simple yet effective algorithm, named Adaptive Gradient Variance Modulator (AGVM), which can train dense visual predictors with very large batch size, enabling several benefits more appealing than prior arts. Firstly, AGVM can align the gradient variances between different modules in the dense visual predictors, such as backbone, feature pyramid network (FPN), detection, and segmentation heads. We show that training with a large batch size can fail with the gradient variances misaligned among them, which is a phenomenon primarily overlooked in previous work. Secondly, AGVM is a plug-and-play module that generalizes well to many different architectures (e.g., CNNs and Transformers) and different tasks (e.g., object detection, instance segmentation, semantic segmentation, and panoptic segmentation). It is also compatible with different optimizers (e.g., SGD and AdamW). Thirdly, a theoretical analysis of AGVM is provided. Extensive experiments on the COCO and ADE20K datasets demonstrate the superiority of AGVM. For example, it can train Faster R-CNN+ResNet50 in 4 minutes without losing performance. AGVM enables training an object detector with one billion parameters in just 3.5 hours, reducing the training time by 20.9x, whilst achieving 62.2 mAP on COCO. The deliverables are released at https://github.com/Sense-X/AGVM.

Humans have the ability to adapt the type of information they use, the procedure they employ, and the amount of time they spend when solving problems. However, most standard neural networks have a fixed function type and computation budget regardless of the sample's nature or difficulty. Adaptivity is a powerful paradigm as it not only imbues practitioners with flexibility pertaining to the downstream usage of these models but can also serve as a powerful inductive bias for solving certain challenging classes of problems. In this work, we introduce a new approach called AdaTape, which allows for dynamic computation in neural networks through adaptive tape tokens. AdaTape utilizes an elastic input sequence by equipping an architecture with a dynamic read-and-write tape. Specifically, we adaptively generate input sequences using tape tokens obtained from a tape bank which can be either trainable or derived from input data. We examine the challenges and requirements to obtain dynamic sequence content and length, and propose the Adaptive Tape Reading (ATR) algorithm to achieve both goals. Through extensive experiments on image recognition tasks, we show that AdaTape can achieve better performance while maintaining the computational cost. To facilitate further research, we have released code at https://github.com/google-research/scenic.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Forecasting future trajectories of agents in complex traffic scenes requires reliable and efficient predictions for all agents in the scene. However, existing methods for trajectory prediction are either inefficient or sacrifice accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose ADAPT, a novel approach for jointly predicting the trajectories of all agents in the scene with dynamic weight learning. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both single-agent and multi-agent settings on the Argoverse and Interaction datasets, with a fraction of their computational overhead. We attribute the improvement in our performance: first, to the adaptive head augmenting the model capacity without increasing the model size; second, to our design choices in the endpoint-conditioned prediction, reinforced by gradient stopping. Our analyses show that ADAPT can focus on each agent with adaptive prediction, allowing for accurate predictions efficiently. https://KUIS-AI.github.io/adapt

We present a novel adaptive optimization algorithm for large-scale machine learning problems. Equipped with a low-cost estimate of local curvature and Lipschitz smoothness, our method dynamically adapts the search direction and step-size. The search direction contains gradient information preconditioned by a well-scaled diagonal preconditioning matrix that captures the local curvature information. Our methodology does not require the tedious task of learning rate tuning, as the learning rate is updated automatically without adding an extra hyperparameter. We provide convergence guarantees on a comprehensive collection of optimization problems, including convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems, in both deterministic and stochastic regimes. We also conduct an extensive empirical evaluation on standard machine learning problems, justifying our algorithm's versatility and demonstrating its strong performance compared to other start-of-the-art first-order and second-order methods.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Adaptive optimization methods are widely recognized as among the most popular approaches for training Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Techniques such as Adam, AdaGrad, and AdaHessian utilize a preconditioner that modifies the search direction by incorporating information about the curvature of the objective function. However, despite their adaptive characteristics, these methods still require manual fine-tuning of the step-size. This, in turn, impacts the time required to solve a particular problem. This paper presents an optimization framework named SANIA to tackle these challenges. Beyond eliminating the need for manual step-size hyperparameter settings, SANIA incorporates techniques to address poorly scaled or ill-conditioned problems. We also explore several preconditioning methods, including Hutchinson's method, which approximates the Hessian diagonal of the loss function. We conclude with an extensive empirical examination of the proposed techniques across classification tasks, covering both convex and non-convex contexts.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely adopted technique for fine-tuning large-scale pre-trained models with minimal parameter updates. However, existing methods rely on fixed ranks or focus solely on either rank pruning or expansion, failing to adapt ranks dynamically to match the importance of different layers during training. In this work, we propose ElaLoRA, an adaptive low-rank adaptation framework that dynamically prunes and expands ranks based on gradient-derived importance scores. To the best of our knowledge, ElaLoRA is the first method that enables both rank pruning and expansion during fine-tuning. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that ElaLoRA consistently outperforms existing PEFT methods across different parameter budgets. Furthermore, our studies validate that layers receiving higher rank allocations contribute more significantly to model performance, providing theoretical justification for our adaptive strategy. By introducing a principled and adaptive rank allocation mechanism, ElaLoRA offers a scalable and efficient fine-tuning solution, particularly suited for resource-constrained environments.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Continual learning is an emerging subject in machine learning that aims to solve multiple tasks presented sequentially to the learner without forgetting previously learned tasks. Recently, many deep learning based approaches have been proposed for continual learning, however the mathematical foundations behind existing continual learning methods remain underdeveloped. On the other hand, adaptive filtering is a classic subject in signal processing with a rich history of mathematically principled methods. However, its role in understanding the foundations of continual learning has been underappreciated. In this tutorial, we review the basic principles behind both continual learning and adaptive filtering, and present a comparative analysis that highlights multiple connections between them. These connections allow us to enhance the mathematical foundations of continual learning based on existing results for adaptive filtering, extend adaptive filtering insights using existing continual learning methods, and discuss a few research directions for continual learning suggested by the historical developments in adaptive filtering.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Adaptive gradient-based optimizers, particularly Adam, have left their mark in training large-scale deep learning models. The strength of such optimizers is that they exhibit fast convergence while being more robust to hyperparameter choice. However, they often generalize worse than non-adaptive methods. Recent studies have tied this performance gap to flat minima selection: adaptive methods tend to find solutions in sharper basins of the loss landscape, which in turn hurts generalization. To overcome this issue, we propose a new memory-augmented version of Adam that promotes exploration towards flatter minima by using a buffer of critical momentum terms during training. Intuitively, the use of the buffer makes the optimizer overshoot outside the basin of attraction if it is not wide enough. We empirically show that our method improves the performance of several variants of Adam on standard supervised language modelling and image classification tasks.

Label efficiency has become an increasingly important objective in deep learning applications. Active learning aims to reduce the number of labeled examples needed to train deep networks, but the empirical performance of active learning algorithms can vary dramatically across datasets and applications. It is difficult to know in advance which active learning strategy will perform well or best in a given application. To address this, we propose the first adaptive algorithm selection strategy for deep active learning. For any unlabeled dataset, our (meta) algorithm TAILOR (Thompson ActIve Learning algORithm selection) iteratively and adaptively chooses among a set of candidate active learning algorithms. TAILOR uses novel reward functions aimed at gathering class-balanced examples. Extensive experiments in multi-class and multi-label applications demonstrate TAILOR's effectiveness in achieving accuracy comparable or better than that of the best of the candidate algorithms. Our implementation of TAILOR is open-sourced at https://github.com/jifanz/TAILOR.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

We study the problem of using low computational cost to automate the choices of learners and hyperparameters for an ad-hoc training dataset and error metric, by conducting trials of different configurations on the given training data. We investigate the joint impact of multiple factors on both trial cost and model error, and propose several design guidelines. Following them, we build a fast and lightweight library FLAML which optimizes for low computational resource in finding accurate models. FLAML integrates several simple but effective search strategies into an adaptive system. It significantly outperforms top-ranked AutoML libraries on a large open source AutoML benchmark under equal, or sometimes orders of magnitude smaller budget constraints.

Adaptive optimization methods such as AdaGrad, RMSprop and Adam have been proposed to achieve a rapid training process with an element-wise scaling term on learning rates. Though prevailing, they are observed to generalize poorly compared with SGD or even fail to converge due to unstable and extreme learning rates. Recent work has put forward some algorithms such as AMSGrad to tackle this issue but they failed to achieve considerable improvement over existing methods. In our paper, we demonstrate that extreme learning rates can lead to poor performance. We provide new variants of Adam and AMSGrad, called AdaBound and AMSBound respectively, which employ dynamic bounds on learning rates to achieve a gradual and smooth transition from adaptive methods to SGD and give a theoretical proof of convergence. We further conduct experiments on various popular tasks and models, which is often insufficient in previous work. Experimental results show that new variants can eliminate the generalization gap between adaptive methods and SGD and maintain higher learning speed early in training at the same time. Moreover, they can bring significant improvement over their prototypes, especially on complex deep networks. The implementation of the algorithm can be found at https://github.com/Luolc/AdaBound .

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

The notion of omnipredictors (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan and Wieder ITCS 2021), suggested a new paradigm for loss minimization. Rather than learning a predictor based on a known loss function, omnipredictors can easily be post-processed to minimize any one of a rich family of loss functions compared with the loss of hypotheses in a class mathcal C. It has been shown that such omnipredictors exist and are implied (for all convex and Lipschitz loss functions) by the notion of multicalibration from the algorithmic fairness literature. In this paper, we introduce omnipredictors for constrained optimization and study their complexity and implications. The notion that we introduce allows the learner to be unaware of the loss function that will be later assigned as well as the constraints that will be later imposed, as long as the subpopulations that are used to define these constraints are known. We show how to obtain omnipredictors for constrained optimization problems, relying on appropriate variants of multicalibration. We also investigate the implications of this notion when the constraints used are so-called group fairness notions.

Recommender systems must balance personalization, diversity, and robustness to cold-start scenarios to remain effective in dynamic content environments. This paper introduces an adaptive, exploration-based recommendation framework that adjusts to evolving user preferences and content distributions to promote diversity and novelty without compromising relevance. The system represents items using sentence-transformer embeddings and organizes them into semantically coherent clusters through an online algorithm with adaptive thresholding. A user-controlled exploration mechanism enhances diversity by selectively sampling from under-explored clusters. Experiments on the MovieLens dataset show that enabling exploration reduces intra-list similarity from 0.34 to 0.26 and increases unexpectedness to 0.73, outperforming collaborative filtering and popularity-based baselines. A/B testing with 300 simulated users reveals a strong link between interaction history and preference for diversity, with 72.7% of long-term users favoring exploratory recommendations. Computational analysis confirms that clustering and recommendation processes scale linearly with the number of clusters. These results demonstrate that adaptive exploration effectively mitigates over-specialization while preserving personalization and efficiency.

Learning from non-stationary data streams subject to concept drift requires models that can adapt on-the-fly while remaining resource-efficient. Existing adaptive ensemble methods often rely on coarse-grained adaptation mechanisms or simple voting schemes that fail to optimally leverage specialized knowledge. This paper introduces DriftMoE, an online Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that addresses these limitations through a novel co-training framework. DriftMoE features a compact neural router that is co-trained alongside a pool of incremental Hoeffding tree experts. The key innovation lies in a symbiotic learning loop that enables expert specialization: the router selects the most suitable expert for prediction, the relevant experts update incrementally with the true label, and the router refines its parameters using a multi-hot correctness mask that reinforces every accurate expert. This feedback loop provides the router with a clear training signal while accelerating expert specialization. We evaluate DriftMoE's performance across nine state-of-the-art data stream learning benchmarks spanning abrupt, gradual, and real-world drifts testing two distinct configurations: one where experts specialize on data regimes (multi-class variant), and another where they focus on single-class specialization (task-based variant). Our results demonstrate that DriftMoE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art stream learning adaptive ensembles, offering a principled and efficient approach to concept drift adaptation. All code, data pipelines, and reproducibility scripts are available in our public GitHub repository: https://github.com/miguel-ceadar/drift-moe.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

During language model decoding, it is known that using higher temperature sampling gives more creative responses, while lower temperatures are more factually accurate. However, such models are commonly applied to general instruction following, which involves both creative and fact seeking tasks, using a single fixed temperature across all examples and tokens. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Decoding, a layer added to the model to select the sampling temperature dynamically at inference time, at either the token or example level, in order to optimize performance. To learn its parameters we introduce Latent Preference Optimization (LPO) a general approach to train discrete latent variables such as choices of temperature. Our method outperforms all fixed decoding temperatures across a range of tasks that require different temperatures, including UltraFeedback, Creative Story Writing, and GSM8K.

The intrinsic difficulty in adapting deep learning models to non-stationary environments limits the applicability of neural networks to real-world tasks. This issue is critical in practical supervised learning settings, such as the ones in which a pre-trained model computes projections toward a latent space where different task predictors are sequentially learned over time. As a matter of fact, incrementally fine-tuning the whole model to better adapt to new tasks usually results in catastrophic forgetting, with decreasing performance over the past experiences and losing valuable knowledge from the pre-training stage. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy to make the fine-tuning procedure more effective, by avoiding to update the pre-trained part of the network and learning not only the usual classification head, but also a set of newly-introduced learnable parameters that are responsible for transforming the input data. This process allows the network to effectively leverage the pre-training knowledge and find a good trade-off between plasticity and stability with modest computational efforts, thus especially suitable for on-the-edge settings. Our experiments on four image classification problems in a continual learning setting confirm the quality of the proposed approach when compared to several fine-tuning procedures and to popular continual learning methods.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

We theoretically explore the relationship between sample-efficiency and adaptivity in reinforcement learning. An algorithm is sample-efficient if it uses a number of queries n to the environment that is polynomial in the dimension d of the problem. Adaptivity refers to the frequency at which queries are sent and feedback is processed to update the querying strategy. To investigate this interplay, we employ a learning framework that allows sending queries in K batches, with feedback being processed and queries updated after each batch. This model encompasses the whole adaptivity spectrum, ranging from non-adaptive 'offline' (K=1) to fully adaptive (K=n) scenarios, and regimes in between. For the problems of policy evaluation and best-policy identification under d-dimensional linear function approximation, we establish Omega(log log d) lower bounds on the number of batches K required for sample-efficient algorithms with n = O(poly(d)) queries. Our results show that just having adaptivity (K>1) does not necessarily guarantee sample-efficiency. Notably, the adaptivity-boundary for sample-efficiency is not between offline reinforcement learning (K=1), where sample-efficiency was known to not be possible, and adaptive settings. Instead, the boundary lies between different regimes of adaptivity and depends on the problem dimension.

Most popular optimizers for deep learning can be broadly categorized as adaptive methods (e.g. Adam) and accelerated schemes (e.g. stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with momentum). For many models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), adaptive methods typically converge faster but generalize worse compared to SGD; for complex settings such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), adaptive methods are typically the default because of their stability.We propose AdaBelief to simultaneously achieve three goals: fast convergence as in adaptive methods, good generalization as in SGD, and training stability. The intuition for AdaBelief is to adapt the stepsize according to the "belief" in the current gradient direction. Viewing the exponential moving average (EMA) of the noisy gradient as the prediction of the gradient at the next time step, if the observed gradient greatly deviates from the prediction, we distrust the current observation and take a small step; if the observed gradient is close to the prediction, we trust it and take a large step. We validate AdaBelief in extensive experiments, showing that it outperforms other methods with fast convergence and high accuracy on image classification and language modeling. Specifically, on ImageNet, AdaBelief achieves comparable accuracy to SGD. Furthermore, in the training of a GAN on Cifar10, AdaBelief demonstrates high stability and improves the quality of generated samples compared to a well-tuned Adam optimizer. Code is available at https://github.com/juntang-zhuang/Adabelief-Optimizer

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

The recent surge in large-scale foundation models has spurred the development of efficient methods for adapting these models to various downstream tasks. Low-rank adaptation methods, such as LoRA, have gained significant attention due to their outstanding parameter efficiency and no additional inference latency. This paper investigates a more general form of adapter module based on the analysis that parallel and sequential adaptation branches learn novel and general features during fine-tuning, respectively. The proposed method, named Hydra, due to its multi-head computational branches, combines parallel and sequential branch to integrate capabilities, which is more expressive than existing single branch methods and enables the exploration of a broader range of optimal points in the fine-tuning process. In addition, the proposed adaptation method explicitly leverages the pre-trained weights by performing a linear combination of the pre-trained features. It allows the learned features to have better generalization performance across diverse downstream tasks. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of each adaptation branch with empirical evidence. Through an extensive range of experiments, encompassing comparisons and ablation studies, we substantiate the efficiency and demonstrate the superior performance of Hydra. This comprehensive evaluation underscores the potential impact and effectiveness of Hydra in a variety of applications. Our code is available on https://github.com/extremebird/Hydra

Visual instruction datasets from various distributors are released at different times and often contain a significant number of semantically redundant text-image pairs, depending on their task compositions (i.e., skills) or reference sources. This redundancy greatly limits the efficient deployment of lifelong adaptable multimodal large language models, hindering their ability to refine existing skills and acquire new competencies over time. To address this, we reframe the problem of Lifelong Instruction Tuning (LiIT) via data selection, where the model automatically selects beneficial samples to learn from earlier and new datasets based on the current state of acquired knowledge in the model. Based on empirical analyses that show that selecting the best data subset using a static importance measure is often ineffective for multi-task datasets with evolving distributions, we propose Adapt-infty, a new multi-way and adaptive data selection approach that dynamically balances sample efficiency and effectiveness during LiIT. We construct pseudo-skill clusters by grouping gradient-based sample vectors. Next, we select the best-performing data selector for each skill cluster from a pool of selector experts, including our newly proposed scoring function, Image Grounding score. This data selector samples a subset of the most important samples from each skill cluster for training. To prevent the continuous increase in the size of the dataset pool during LiIT, which would result in excessive computation, we further introduce a cluster-wise permanent data pruning strategy to remove the most semantically redundant samples from each cluster, keeping computational requirements manageable. Training with samples selected by Adapt-infty alleviates catastrophic forgetting, especially for rare tasks, and promotes forward transfer across the continuum using only a fraction of the original datasets.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning optimizes large, pre-trained foundation models by updating a subset of parameters; in this class, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is particularly effective. Inspired by an effort to investigate the different roles of LoRA matrices during fine-tuning, this paper characterizes and leverages unexpected asymmetry in the importance of low-rank adapter matrices. Specifically, when updating the parameter matrices of a neural network by adding a product BA, we observe that the B and A matrices have distinct functions: A extracts features from the input, while B uses these features to create the desired output. Based on this observation, we demonstrate that fine-tuning B is inherently more effective than fine-tuning A, and that a random untrained A should perform nearly as well as a fine-tuned one. Using an information-theoretic lens, we also bound the generalization of low-rank adapters, showing that the parameter savings of exclusively training B improves the bound. We support our conclusions with experiments on RoBERTa, BART-Large, LLaMA-2, and ViTs.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We present a bag of tricks framework for few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), which is a challenging form of continual learning that involves continuous adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. FSCIL requires both stability and adaptability, i.e., preserving proficiency in previously learned tasks while learning new ones. Our proposed bag of tricks brings together eight key and highly influential techniques that improve stability, adaptability, and overall performance under a unified framework for FSCIL. We organize these tricks into three categories: stability tricks, adaptability tricks, and training tricks. Stability tricks aim to mitigate the forgetting of previously learned classes by enhancing the separation between the embeddings of learned classes and minimizing interference when learning new ones. On the other hand, adaptability tricks focus on the effective learning of new classes. Finally, training tricks improve the overall performance without compromising stability or adaptability. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and miniIMageNet, to evaluate the impact of our proposed framework. Our detailed analysis shows that our approach substantially improves both stability and adaptability, establishing a new state-of-the-art by outperforming prior works in the area. We believe our method provides a go-to solution and establishes a robust baseline for future research in this area.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Continual learning (CL) refers to the ability of an intelligent system to sequentially acquire and retain knowledge from a stream of data with as little computational overhead as possible. To this end; regularization, replay, architecture, and parameter isolation approaches were introduced to the literature. Parameter isolation using a sparse network which enables to allocate distinct parts of the neural network to different tasks and also allows to share of parameters between tasks if they are similar. Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) is a prominent way to find these sparse networks and isolate them for each task. This paper is the first empirical study investigating the effect of different DST components under the CL paradigm to fill a critical research gap and shed light on the optimal configuration of DST for CL if it exists. Therefore, we perform a comprehensive study in which we investigate various DST components to find the best topology per task on well-known CIFAR100 and miniImageNet benchmarks in a task-incremental CL setup since our primary focus is to evaluate the performance of various DST criteria, rather than the process of mask selection. We found that, at a low sparsity level, Erdos-Renyi Kernel (ERK) initialization utilizes the backbone more efficiently and allows to effectively learn increments of tasks. At a high sparsity level, however, uniform initialization demonstrates more reliable and robust performance. In terms of growth strategy; performance is dependent on the defined initialization strategy, and the extent of sparsity. Finally, adaptivity within DST components is a promising way for better continual learners.

Industrial recommender systems face the challenge of operating in non-stationary environments, where data distribution shifts arise from evolving user behaviors over time. To tackle this challenge, a common approach is to periodically re-train or incrementally update deployed deep models with newly observed data, resulting in a continual training process. However, the conventional learning paradigm of neural networks relies on iterative gradient-based updates with a small learning rate, making it slow for large recommendation models to adapt. In this paper, we introduce ReLoop2, a self-correcting learning loop that facilitates fast model adaptation in online recommender systems through responsive error compensation. Inspired by the slow-fast complementary learning system observed in human brains, we propose an error memory module that directly stores error samples from incoming data streams. These stored samples are subsequently leveraged to compensate for model prediction errors during testing, particularly under distribution shifts. The error memory module is designed with fast access capabilities and undergoes continual refreshing with newly observed data samples during the model serving phase to support fast model adaptation. We evaluate the effectiveness of ReLoop2 on three open benchmark datasets as well as a real-world production dataset. The results demonstrate the potential of ReLoop2 in enhancing the responsiveness and adaptiveness of recommender systems operating in non-stationary environments.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Machine learning methods can be a valuable aid in the scientific process, but they need to face challenging settings where data come from inhomogeneous experimental conditions. Recent meta-learning methods have made significant progress in multi-task learning, but they rely on black-box neural networks, resulting in high computational costs and limited interpretability. Leveraging the structure of the learning problem, we argue that multi-environment generalization can be achieved using a simpler learning model, with an affine structure with respect to the learning task. Crucially, we prove that this architecture can identify the physical parameters of the system, enabling interpreable learning. We demonstrate the competitive generalization performance and the low computational cost of our method by comparing it to state-of-the-art algorithms on physical systems, ranging from toy models to complex, non-analytical systems. The interpretability of our method is illustrated with original applications to physical-parameter-induced adaptation and to adaptive control.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

Foundation models (FMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuned on a downstream task for a specific application. The most successful and most commonly used fine-tuning method is to update the pre-trained weights via a low-rank adaptation (LoRA). LoRA introduces new weight matrices that are usually initialized at random with a uniform rank distribution across model weights. Recent works focus on weight-driven initialization or learning of adaptive ranks during training. Both approaches have only been investigated in isolation, resulting in slow convergence or a uniform rank distribution, in turn leading to sub-optimal performance. We propose to enhance LoRA by initializing the new weights in a data-driven manner by computing singular value decomposition on minibatches of activation vectors. Then, we initialize the LoRA matrices with the obtained right-singular vectors and re-distribute ranks among all weight matrices to explain the maximal amount of variance and continue the standard LoRA fine-tuning procedure. This results in our new method Explained Variance Adaptation (EVA). We apply EVA to a variety of fine-tuning tasks ranging from language generation and understanding to image classification and reinforcement learning. EVA exhibits faster convergence than competitors and attains the highest average score across a multitude of tasks per domain.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

Foundation models are redefining how AI systems are built. Practitioners now follow a standard procedure to build their machine learning solutions: from a pre-trained foundation model, they fine-tune the weights on the target task of interest. So, the Internet is swarmed by a handful of foundation models fine-tuned on many diverse tasks: these individual fine-tunings exist in isolation without benefiting from each other. In our opinion, this is a missed opportunity, as these specialized models contain rich and diverse features. In this paper, we thus propose model ratatouille, a new strategy to recycle the multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model on diverse auxiliary tasks. Specifically, we repurpose these auxiliary weights as initializations for multiple parallel fine-tunings on the target task; then, we average all fine-tuned weights to obtain the final model. This recycling strategy aims at maximizing the diversity in weights by leveraging the diversity in auxiliary tasks. Empirically, it improves the state of the art on the reference DomainBed benchmark for out-of-distribution generalization. Looking forward, this work contributes to the emerging paradigm of updatable machine learning where, akin to open-source software development, the community collaborates to reliably update machine learning models.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

Online continual learning (CL) aims to learn new knowledge and consolidate previously learned knowledge from non-stationary data streams. Due to the time-varying training setting, the model learned from a changing distribution easily forgets the previously learned knowledge and biases toward the newly received task. To address this problem, we propose a Continual Bias Adaptor (CBA) module to augment the classifier network to adapt to catastrophic distribution change during training, such that the classifier network is able to learn a stable consolidation of previously learned tasks. In the testing stage, CBA can be removed which introduces no additional computation cost and memory overhead. We theoretically reveal the reason why the proposed method can effectively alleviate catastrophic distribution shifts, and empirically demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments based on four rehearsal-based baselines and three public continual learning benchmarks.

SGD does not produce robust results on datasets with label noise. Because the gradients calculated according to the losses of the noisy samples cause the optimization process to go in the wrong direction. In this paper, as an alternative to SGD, we recommend using samples with loss less than a threshold value determined during the optimization process, instead of using all samples in the mini-batch. Our proposed method, Adaptive-k, aims to exclude label noise samples from the optimization process and make the process robust. On noisy datasets, we found that using a threshold-based approach, such as Adaptive-k, produces better results than using all samples or a fixed number of low-loss samples in the mini-batch. Based on our theoretical analysis and experimental results, we show that the Adaptive-k method is closest to the performance of the oracle, in which noisy samples are entirely removed from the dataset. Adaptive-k is a simple but effective method. It does not require prior knowledge of the noise ratio of the dataset, does not require additional model training, and does not increase training time significantly. The code for Adaptive-k is available at https://github.com/enesdedeoglu-TR/Adaptive-k

Fine-tuning is the primary methodology for tailoring pre-trained large language models to specific tasks. As the model's scale and the diversity of tasks expand, parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods are of paramount importance. One of the most widely used family of methods is low-rank adaptation (LoRA) and its variants. LoRA encodes weight update as the product of two low-rank matrices. Despite its advantages, LoRA falls short of full-parameter fine-tuning in terms of generalization error for certain tasks. We introduce Chain of LoRA (COLA), an iterative optimization framework inspired by the Frank-Wolfe algorithm, to bridge the gap between LoRA and full parameter fine-tuning, without incurring additional computational costs or memory overheads. COLA employs a residual learning procedure where it merges learned LoRA modules into the pre-trained language model parameters and re-initilize optimization for new born LoRA modules. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees as well as empirical results to validate the effectiveness of our algorithm. Across various models (OPT and llama-2) and seven benchmarking tasks, we demonstrate that COLA can consistently outperform LoRA without additional computational or memory costs.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Recent advances on instruction fine-tuning have led to the development of various prompting techniques for large language models, such as explicit reasoning steps. However, the success of techniques depends on various parameters, such as the task, language model, and context provided. Finding an effective prompt is, therefore, often a trial-and-error process. Most existing approaches to automatic prompting aim to optimize individual techniques instead of compositions of techniques and their dependence on the input. To fill this gap, we propose an adaptive prompting approach that predicts the optimal prompt composition ad-hoc for a given input. We apply our approach to social bias detection, a highly context-dependent task that requires semantic understanding. We evaluate it with three large language models on three datasets, comparing compositions to individual techniques and other baselines. The results underline the importance of finding an effective prompt composition. Our approach robustly ensures high detection performance, and is best in several settings. Moreover, first experiments on other tasks support its generalizability.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

We investigate the generalization capabilities of small language models under two popular adaptation paradigms: few-shot prompting and supervised fine-tuning. While prompting is often favored for its parameter efficiency and flexibility, it remains unclear how robust this approach is in low-resource settings and under distributional shifts. This paper presents a comparative study of prompting and fine-tuning across task formats, prompt styles, and model scales, with a focus on their behavior in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings. Beyond accuracy, we analyze the internal representations learned by each approach to assess the stability and abstraction of task-specific features. Our findings highlight critical differences in how small models internalize and generalize knowledge under different adaptation strategies. This work offers practical guidance for model selection in low-data regimes and contributes empirical insight into the ongoing debate over prompting versus fine-tuning. Code for the experiments is available at the following

Handwriting recognition has seen significant success with the use of deep learning. However, a persistent shortcoming of neural networks is that they are not well-equipped to deal with shifting data distributions. In the field of handwritten text recognition (HTR), this shows itself in poor recognition accuracy for writers that are not similar to those seen during training. An ideal HTR model should be adaptive to new writing styles in order to handle the vast amount of possible writing styles. In this paper, we explore how HTR models can be made writer adaptive by using only a handful of examples from a new writer (e.g., 16 examples) for adaptation. Two HTR architectures are used as base models, using a ResNet backbone along with either an LSTM or Transformer sequence decoder. Using these base models, two methods are considered to make them writer adaptive: 1) model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML), an algorithm commonly used for tasks such as few-shot classification, and 2) writer codes, an idea originating from automatic speech recognition. Results show that an HTR-specific version of MAML known as MetaHTR improves performance compared to the baseline with a 1.4 to 2.0 improvement in word error rate (WER). The improvement due to writer adaptation is between 0.2 and 0.7 WER, where a deeper model seems to lend itself better to adaptation using MetaHTR than a shallower model. However, applying MetaHTR to larger HTR models or sentence-level HTR may become prohibitive due to its high computational and memory requirements. Lastly, writer codes based on learned features or Hinge statistical features did not lead to improved recognition performance.

Large pre-trained, zero-shot capable models have shown considerable success both for standard transfer and adaptation tasks, with particular robustness towards distribution shifts. In addition, subsequent fine-tuning can considerably improve performance on a selected downstream task. However, through naive fine-tuning, these zero-shot models lose their generalizability and robustness towards distribution shifts. This is a particular problem for tasks such as Continual Learning (CL), where continuous adaptation has to be performed as new task distributions are introduced sequentially. In this work, we showcase that where fine-tuning falls short to adapt such zero-shot capable models, simple momentum-based weight interpolation can provide consistent improvements for CL tasks in both memory-free and memory-based settings. In particular, we find improvements of over +4% on standard CL benchmarks, while reducing the error to the upper limit of jointly training on all tasks at once in parts by more than half, allowing the continual learner to inch closer to the joint training limits.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

We introduce Adapters, an open-source library that unifies parameter-efficient and modular transfer learning in large language models. By integrating 10 diverse adapter methods into a unified interface, Adapters offers ease of use and flexible configuration. Our library allows researchers and practitioners to leverage adapter modularity through composition blocks, enabling the design of complex adapter setups. We demonstrate the library's efficacy by evaluating its performance against full fine-tuning on various NLP tasks. Adapters provides a powerful tool for addressing the challenges of conventional fine-tuning paradigms and promoting more efficient and modular transfer learning. The library is available via https://adapterhub.ml/adapters.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

We present methodology for using dynamic evaluation to improve neural sequence models. Models are adapted to recent history via a gradient descent based mechanism, causing them to assign higher probabilities to re-occurring sequential patterns. Dynamic evaluation outperforms existing adaptation approaches in our comparisons. Dynamic evaluation improves the state-of-the-art word-level perplexities on the Penn Treebank and WikiText-2 datasets to 51.1 and 44.3 respectively, and the state-of-the-art character-level cross-entropies on the text8 and Hutter Prize datasets to 1.19 bits/char and 1.08 bits/char respectively.

The expansion of machine learning into dynamic environments presents challenges in handling open-world problems where label shift, covariate shift, and unknown classes emerge. Post-training methods have been explored to address these challenges, adapting models to newly emerging data. However, these methods struggle when the initial pre-training is performed on class-imbalanced datasets, limiting generalization to minority classes. To address this, we propose a method that effectively handles open-world problems even when pre-training is conducted on imbalanced data. Our contrastive-based pre-training approach enhances classification performance, particularly for underrepresented classes. Our post-training mechanism generates reliable pseudo-labels, improving model robustness against open-world problems. We also introduce selective activation criteria to optimize the post-training process, reducing unnecessary computation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art adaptation techniques in both accuracy and efficiency across diverse open-world scenarios.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Self-supervision may boost model performance in downstream tasks. However, there is no principled way of selecting the self-supervised objectives that yield the most adaptable models. Here, we study this problem on daily time-series data generated from wearable sensors used to detect onset of influenza-like illness (ILI). We first show that using self-supervised learning to predict next-day time-series values allows us to learn rich representations which can be adapted to perform accurate ILI prediction. Second, we perform an empirical analysis of three different self-supervised objectives to assess their adaptability to ILI prediction. Our results show that predicting the next day's resting heart rate or time-in-bed during sleep provides better representations for ILI prediction. These findings add to previous work demonstrating the practical application of self-supervised learning from activity data to improve health predictions.

Recent personalization methods for diffusion models, such as Dreambooth, allow fine-tuning pre-trained models to generate new concepts. However, applying these techniques across multiple tasks in order to include, e.g., several new objects or styles, leads to mutual interference between their adapters. While recent studies attempt to mitigate this issue by combining trained adapters across tasks after fine-tuning, we adopt a more rigorous regime and investigate the personalization of large diffusion models under a continual learning scenario, where such interference leads to catastrophic forgetting of previous knowledge. To that end, we evaluate the na\"ive continual fine-tuning of customized models and compare this approach with three methods for consecutive adapters' training: sequentially merging new adapters, merging orthogonally initialized adapters, and updating only relevant parameters according to the task. In our experiments, we show that the proposed approaches mitigate forgetting when compared to the na\"ive approach.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

LoRA (Low-Rank Adaptation) is a widely used model fine-tuning method. In fine-tuning, the law among model performance, model parameters, and data complexity has been a focal issue in the field. Existing methods often leverage external metrics (such as cross-entropy or perplexity) to evaluate model performance. In the fine-tuning process for large models, two types of knowledge are typically involved: the frozen, general knowledge acquired by the model during pre-training and the new knowledge learned through the LoRA module from the current data. Generally, the less LoRA's learned knowledge relies on the large model, the more it captures the specific knowledge of new data, thereby enhancing its adaptability to new tasks. However, external metrics do not readily capture the dependency relationship between these two types of knowledge. Therefore, we designed an internal metric based on the Mutual Information Upper Bound (MIUB) theory to investigate the scaling law of large-model LoRA fine-tuning. In our experiments, we validated this approach on benchmark datasets, using the Llama3-8B and Phi3-3B models. The results show that the proposed MIUB metric aligns more accurately and stably with the scaling law of LoRA fine-tuning compared to cross-entropy and perplexity.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

Offline model-based optimization aims to maximize a black-box objective function with a static dataset of designs and their scores. In this paper, we focus on biological sequence design to maximize some sequence score. A recent approach employs bidirectional learning, combining a forward mapping for exploitation and a backward mapping for constraint, and it relies on the neural tangent kernel (NTK) of an infinitely wide network to build a proxy model. Though effective, the NTK cannot learn features because of its parametrization, and its use prevents the incorporation of powerful pre-trained Language Models (LMs) that can capture the rich biophysical information in millions of biological sequences. We adopt an alternative proxy model, adding a linear head to a pre-trained LM, and propose a linearization scheme. This yields a closed-form loss and also takes into account the biophysical information in the pre-trained LM. In addition, the forward mapping and the backward mapping play different roles and thus deserve different weights during sequence optimization. To achieve this, we train an auxiliary model and leverage its weak supervision signal via a bi-level optimization framework to effectively learn how to balance the two mappings. Further, by extending the framework, we develop the first learning rate adaptation module Adaptive-eta, which is compatible with all gradient-based algorithms for offline model-based optimization. Experimental results on DNA/protein sequence design tasks verify the effectiveness of our algorithm. Our code is available~https://anonymous.4open.science/r/BIB-ICLR2023-Submission/README.md{here.}

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as a highly efficient framework for finetuning the weights of large foundation models, and has become the go-to method for data-driven customization of LLMs. Despite the promise of highly customized behaviors and capabilities, switching between relevant LoRAs in a multiturn setting is highly inefficient, as the key-value (KV) cache of the entire turn history must be recomputed with the LoRA weights before generation can begin. To address this problem, we propose Activated LoRA (aLoRA), which modifies the LoRA framework to only adapt weights for the tokens in the sequence after the aLoRA is invoked. This change crucially allows aLoRA to accept the base model's KV cache of the input string, meaning that aLoRA can be instantly activated whenever needed in a chain without recomputing the cache. This enables building what we call intrinsics, i.e. highly specialized models invoked to perform well-defined operations on portions of an input chain or conversation that otherwise uses the base model by default. We use aLoRA to train a set of intrinsics models, demonstrating competitive accuracy with standard LoRA while achieving significant inference benefits.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

We revisit the common practice of evaluating adaptation of Online Continual Learning (OCL) algorithms through the metric of online accuracy, which measures the accuracy of the model on the immediate next few samples. However, we show that this metric is unreliable, as even vacuous blind classifiers, which do not use input images for prediction, can achieve unrealistically high online accuracy by exploiting spurious label correlations in the data stream. Our study reveals that existing OCL algorithms can also achieve high online accuracy, but perform poorly in retaining useful information, suggesting that they unintentionally learn spurious label correlations. To address this issue, we propose a novel metric for measuring adaptation based on the accuracy on the near-future samples, where spurious correlations are removed. We benchmark existing OCL approaches using our proposed metric on large-scale datasets under various computational budgets and find that better generalization can be achieved by retaining and reusing past seen information. We believe that our proposed metric can aid in the development of truly adaptive OCL methods. We provide code to reproduce our results at https://github.com/drimpossible/EvalOCL.

Fine-tuning is a crucial paradigm for adapting pre-trained large language models to downstream tasks. Recently, methods like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) have been shown to match the performance of fully fine-tuned models on various tasks with an extreme reduction in the number of trainable parameters. Even in settings where both methods learn similarly accurate models, are their learned solutions really equivalent? We study how different fine-tuning methods change pre-trained models by analyzing the model's weight matrices through the lens of their spectral properties. We find that full fine-tuning and LoRA yield weight matrices whose singular value decompositions exhibit very different structure; moreover, the fine-tuned models themselves show distinct generalization behaviors when tested outside the adaptation task's distribution. More specifically, we first show that the weight matrices trained with LoRA have new, high-ranking singular vectors, which we call intruder dimensions. Intruder dimensions do not appear during full fine-tuning. Second, we show that LoRA models with intruder dimensions, despite achieving similar performance to full fine-tuning on the target task, become worse models of the pre-training distribution and adapt less robustly to multiple tasks sequentially. Higher-rank, rank-stabilized LoRA models closely mirror full fine-tuning, even when performing on par with lower-rank LoRA models on the same tasks. These results suggest that models updated with LoRA and full fine-tuning access different parts of parameter space, even when they perform equally on the fine-tuned distribution. We conclude by examining why intruder dimensions appear in LoRA fine-tuned models, why they are undesirable, and how their effects can be minimized.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Language models pretrained on text from a wide variety of sources form the foundation of today's NLP. In light of the success of these broad-coverage models, we investigate whether it is still helpful to tailor a pretrained model to the domain of a target task. We present a study across four domains (biomedical and computer science publications, news, and reviews) and eight classification tasks, showing that a second phase of pretraining in-domain (domain-adaptive pretraining) leads to performance gains, under both high- and low-resource settings. Moreover, adapting to the task's unlabeled data (task-adaptive pretraining) improves performance even after domain-adaptive pretraining. Finally, we show that adapting to a task corpus augmented using simple data selection strategies is an effective alternative, especially when resources for domain-adaptive pretraining might be unavailable. Overall, we consistently find that multi-phase adaptive pretraining offers large gains in task performance.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) with high parameter efficiency for downstream tasks has become a new paradigm. Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) significantly reduces the number of trainable parameters for fine-tuning. Although it has demonstrated commendable performance, updating parameters within a single scale may not be the optimal choice for complex downstream tasks.In this paper, we extend the LoRA to multiple scales, dubbed as LoRA^2. We first combine orthogonal projection theory to train a set of LoRAs in two mutually orthogonal planes. Then, we improve the importance score algorithm, which reduce parameter sensitivity score calculations by approximately 98.5\%. By pruning singular values with lower importance scores, thereby enhancing adaptability to various downstream tasks. Extensive experiments are conducted on two widely used pre-trained models to validate the effectiveness of LoRA^2. Results show that it significantly reduces the number of trainable parameters to just 0.72\% compared to full fine-tuning, while still delivering highly impressive performance. Even when the parameters are further reduced to 0.17M, it still achieves comparable results to the baseline with 8 times more parameters. Our code is available here: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LoRA-2-5B4C

We introduce RE-Adapt, an approach to fine-tuning large language models on new domains without degrading any pre-existing instruction-tuning. We reverse engineer an adapter which isolates what an instruction-tuned model has learned beyond its corresponding pretrained base model. Importantly, this requires no additional data or training. We can then fine-tune the base model on a new domain and readapt it to instruction following with the reverse engineered adapter. RE-Adapt and our low-rank variant LoRE-Adapt both outperform other methods of fine-tuning, across multiple popular LLMs and datasets, even when the models are used in conjunction with retrieval-augmented generation.

Conventional Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) methods employ a fixed rank, imposing uniform adaptation across transformer layers and attention heads despite their heterogeneous learning dynamics. This paper introduces Adaptive Rank Dynamic LoRA (ARD-LoRA), a novel framework that automates rank allocation through learnable scaling factors. These factors are optimized via a meta-objective balancing task performance and parameter efficiency, incorporating ell_1 sparsity for minimal rank and Total Variation regularization for stable rank transitions. ARD-LoRA enables continuous, differentiable, per-head rank adaptation. Experiments on LLAMA-3.1-70B and PaliGemma-2 demonstrate ARD-LoRA's efficacy, achieving up to 99.3% of full fine-tuning performance with only 0.32% trainable parameters, outperforming strong baselines like DoRA and AdaLoRA. Furthermore, it reduces multimodal adaptation memory by 41%. These results establish dynamic, fine-grained rank allocation as a critical paradigm for efficient foundation model adaptation.

Low Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as one of the most widely adopted methods for Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) of Large Language Models (LLMs). LoRA reduces the number of trainable parameters and memory usage while achieving comparable performance to full fine-tuning. We aim to assess the viability of training and serving LLMs fine-tuned with LoRA in real-world applications. First, we measure the quality of LLMs fine-tuned with quantized low rank adapters across 10 base models and 31 tasks for a total of 310 models. We find that 4-bit LoRA fine-tuned models outperform base models by 34 points and GPT-4 by 10 points on average. Second, we investigate the most effective base models for fine-tuning and assess the correlative and predictive capacities of task complexity heuristics in forecasting the outcomes of fine-tuning. Finally, we evaluate the latency and concurrency capabilities of LoRAX, an open-source Multi-LoRA inference server that facilitates the deployment of multiple LoRA fine-tuned models on a single GPU using shared base model weights and dynamic adapter loading. LoRAX powers LoRA Land, a web application that hosts 25 LoRA fine-tuned Mistral-7B LLMs on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU with 80GB memory. LoRA Land highlights the quality and cost-effectiveness of employing multiple specialized LLMs over a single, general-purpose LLM.

We propose a new variant of AMSGrad, a popular adaptive gradient based optimization algorithm widely used for training deep neural networks. Our algorithm adds prior knowledge about the sequence of consecutive mini-batch gradients and leverages its underlying structure making the gradients sequentially predictable. By exploiting the predictability and ideas from optimistic online learning, the proposed algorithm can accelerate the convergence and increase sample efficiency. After establishing a tighter upper bound under some convexity conditions on the regret, we offer a complimentary view of our algorithm which generalizes the offline and stochastic version of nonconvex optimization. In the nonconvex case, we establish a non-asymptotic convergence bound independently of the initialization. We illustrate the practical speedup on several deep learning models via numerical experiments.

Pre-training (PT) followed by fine-tuning (FT) is an effective method for training neural networks, and has led to significant performance improvements in many domains. PT can incorporate various design choices such as task and data reweighting strategies, augmentation policies, and noise models, all of which can significantly impact the quality of representations learned. The hyperparameters introduced by these strategies therefore must be tuned appropriately. However, setting the values of these hyperparameters is challenging. Most existing methods either struggle to scale to high dimensions, are too slow and memory-intensive, or cannot be directly applied to the two-stage PT and FT learning process. In this work, we propose an efficient, gradient-based algorithm to meta-learn PT hyperparameters. We formalize the PT hyperparameter optimization problem and propose a novel method to obtain PT hyperparameter gradients by combining implicit differentiation and backpropagation through unrolled optimization. We demonstrate that our method improves predictive performance on two real-world domains. First, we optimize high-dimensional task weighting hyperparameters for multitask pre-training on protein-protein interaction graphs and improve AUROC by up to 3.9%. Second, we optimize a data augmentation neural network for self-supervised PT with SimCLR on electrocardiography data and improve AUROC by up to 1.9%.

Online continual learning aims to continuously train neural networks from a continuous data stream with a single pass-through data. As the most effective approach, the rehearsal-based methods replay part of previous data. Commonly used predictors in existing methods tend to generate biased dot-product logits that prefer to the classes of current data, which is known as a bias issue and a phenomenon of forgetting. Many approaches have been proposed to overcome the forgetting problem by correcting the bias; however, they still need to be improved in online fashion. In this paper, we try to address the bias issue by a more straightforward and more efficient method. By decomposing the dot-product logits into an angle factor and a norm factor, we empirically find that the bias problem mainly occurs in the angle factor, which can be used to learn novel knowledge as cosine logits. On the contrary, the norm factor abandoned by existing methods helps remember historical knowledge. Based on this observation, we intuitively propose to leverage the norm factor to balance the new and old knowledge for addressing the bias. To this end, we develop a heuristic approach called unbias experience replay (UER). UER learns current samples only by the angle factor and further replays previous samples by both the norm and angle factors. Extensive experiments on three datasets show that UER achieves superior performance over various state-of-the-art methods. The code is in https://github.com/FelixHuiweiLin/UER.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

This paper presents a computationally efficient variant of gradient boosting for multi-class classification and multi-output regression tasks. Standard gradient boosting uses a 1-vs-all strategy for classifications tasks with more than two classes. This strategy translates in that one tree per class and iteration has to be trained. In this work, we propose the use of multi-output regressors as base models to handle the multi-class problem as a single task. In addition, the proposed modification allows the model to learn multi-output regression problems. An extensive comparison with other multi-ouptut based gradient boosting methods is carried out in terms of generalization and computational efficiency. The proposed method showed the best trade-off between generalization ability and training and predictions speeds.

We build new test sets for the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Both benchmarks have been the focus of intense research for almost a decade, raising the danger of overfitting to excessively re-used test sets. By closely following the original dataset creation processes, we test to what extent current classification models generalize to new data. We evaluate a broad range of models and find accuracy drops of 3% - 15% on CIFAR-10 and 11% - 14% on ImageNet. However, accuracy gains on the original test sets translate to larger gains on the new test sets. Our results suggest that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.

While following different technical routes, both low-rank and orthogonal adaptation techniques can efficiently adapt large-scale pre-training models in specific tasks or domains based on a small piece of trainable parameters. In this study, we bridge the gap between these two techniques, proposing a simple but effective adaptation method based on Householder reflections. Given a pre-trained model, our method fine-tunes its layers by multiplying each frozen weight matrix with an orthogonal matrix constructed by a chain of learnable Householder reflections (HRs). This HR-based orthogonal fine-tuning is equivalent to an adaptive low-rank adaptation. Moreover, we show that the orthogonality of the reflection planes corresponding to the HRs impacts the model capacity and regularity. The analysis motivates us to regularize the orthogonality of the HRs, leading to different implementations of the proposed Householder reflection adaptation (HRA) method. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, HRA achieves superior performance with fewer learnable parameters when adapting large language models and conditional image generators. The code is available at https://github.com/DaShenZi721/HRA

We introduce ADEPT: Adaptive Data ExPloiTation, a simple yet powerful framework to enhance the **data efficiency** and **generalization** in deep reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, ADEPT adaptively manages the use of sampled data across different learning stages via multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms, optimizing data utilization while mitigating overfitting. Moreover, ADEPT can significantly reduce the computational overhead and accelerate a wide range of RL algorithms. We test ADEPT on benchmarks including Procgen, MiniGrid, and PyBullet. Extensive simulation demonstrates that ADEPT can achieve superior performance with remarkable computational efficiency, offering a practical solution to data-efficient RL. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuanmingqi/ADEPT.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

We propose AdaMuon, a novel optimizer that combines element-wise adaptivity with orthogonal updates for large-scale neural network training. AdaMuon incorporates two tightly coupled mechanisms: (1) an element-wise second momentum estimator applied to orthogonalized update directions, and (2) a sign-stabilized orthogonal update, where the momentum is first sign-transformed before orthogonalization. These two components jointly enable variance-adaptive scaling while maintaining stable update geometry. In addition, AdaMuon employs an RMS-aligned rescaling strategy to match the root-mean-square update magnitude to Adam, allowing direct reuse of existing learning rate schedules without extra tuning. Experiments demonstrate that AdaMuon not only maintains stability but can surpass Adam by more than 40% training efficiency in large-scale scenarios.

This article explores the adaptive relationship between Encoder Layers and Decoder Layers using the SOTA model Helsinki-NLP/opus-mt-de-en, which translates German to English. The specific method involves introducing a bias-free fully connected layer between the Encoder and Decoder, with different initializations of the layer's weights, and observing the outcomes of fine-tuning versus retraining. Four experiments were conducted in total. The results suggest that directly modifying the pre-trained model structure for fine-tuning yields suboptimal performance. However, upon observing the outcomes of the experiments with retraining, this structural adjustment shows significant potential.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Large pre-trained models are commonly adapted to downstream tasks using parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods such as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), which injects small trainable low-rank matrices instead of updating all weights. While LoRA dramatically reduces trainable parameters with little overhead, it can still underperform full fine-tuning in accuracy and often converges more slowly. We introduce LoFT, a novel low-rank adaptation method that behaves like full fine-tuning by aligning the optimizer's internal dynamics with those of updating all model weights. LoFT not only learns weight updates in a low-rank subspace (like LoRA) but also properly projects the optimizer's first and second moments (Adam's momentum and variance) into the same subspace, mirroring full-model updates. By aligning the low-rank update itself with the full update, LoFT eliminates the need for tuning extra hyperparameters, e.g., LoRA scaling factor alpha. Empirically, this approach substantially narrows the performance gap between adapter-based tuning and full fine-tuning and consistently outperforms standard LoRA-style methods, all without increasing inference cost.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

The common modus operandi of fine-tuning large pre-trained Transformer models entails the adaptation of all their parameters (i.e., full fine-tuning). While achieving striking results on multiple tasks, this approach becomes unfeasible as the model size and the number of downstream tasks increase. In natural language processing and computer vision, parameter-efficient approaches like prompt-tuning and adapters have emerged as solid alternatives by fine-tuning only a small number of extra parameters, without sacrificing performance accuracy. Specifically, adapters, due to their flexibility, have recently garnered significant attention, leading to several variants. For audio classification tasks, the Audio Spectrogram Transformer model shows impressive results. However, surprisingly, how to efficiently adapt it to several downstream tasks has not been tackled before. In this paper, we bridge this gap and present a detailed investigation of common parameter-efficient methods, revealing that adapters consistently outperform the other methods across four benchmarks. This trend is also confirmed in few-shot learning settings and when the total number of trainable parameters increases, demonstrating adapters superior scalability. We finally study the best adapter configuration, as well as the role of residual connections in the learning process. Our code is available at: https://github.com/umbertocappellazzo/PETL AST.

Customer churn, the discontinuation of services by existing customers, poses a significant challenge to the telecommunications industry. This paper proposes a novel adaptive ensemble learning framework for highly accurate customer churn prediction. The framework integrates multiple base models, including XGBoost, LightGBM, LSTM, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These models are strategically combined using a stacking ensemble method, further enhanced by meta-feature generation from base model predictions. A rigorous data preprocessing pipeline, coupled with a multi-faceted feature engineering approach, optimizes model performance. The framework is evaluated on three publicly available telecom churn datasets, demonstrating substantial accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art techniques. The research achieves a remarkable 99.28% accuracy, signifying a major advancement in churn prediction.The implications of this research for developing proactive customer retention strategies withinthe telecommunications industry are discussed.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Large pre-trained models decay over long-term deployment as input distributions shift, user requirements change, or crucial knowledge gaps are discovered. Recently, model editors have been proposed to modify a model's behavior by adjusting its weights during deployment. However, when editing the same model multiple times, these approaches quickly decay a model's performance on upstream data and forget how to fix previous errors. We propose and study a novel Lifelong Model Editing setting, where streaming errors are identified for a deployed model and we update the model to correct its predictions without influencing unrelated inputs without access to training edits, exogenous datasets, or any upstream data for the edited model. To approach this problem, we introduce General Retrieval Adaptors for Continual Editing, or GRACE, which learns to cache a chosen layer's activations in an adaptive codebook as edits stream in, leaving original model weights frozen. GRACE can thus edit models thousands of times in a row using only streaming errors, without influencing unrelated inputs. Experimentally, we show that GRACE improves over recent alternatives and generalizes to unseen inputs. Our code is available at https://www.github.com/thartvigsen/grace.

The choice of batch sizes in stochastic gradient optimizers is critical for model training. However, the practice of varying batch sizes throughout the training process is less explored compared to other hyperparameters. We investigate adaptive batch size strategies derived from adaptive sampling methods, traditionally applied only in stochastic gradient descent. Given the significant interplay between learning rates and batch sizes, and considering the prevalence of adaptive gradient methods in deep learning, we emphasize the need for adaptive batch size strategies in these contexts. We introduce AdAdaGrad and its scalar variant AdAdaGradNorm, which incrementally increase batch sizes during training, while model updates are performed using AdaGrad and AdaGradNorm. We prove that AdaGradNorm converges with high probability at a rate of O(1/K) for finding a first-order stationary point of smooth nonconvex functions within K iterations. AdaGrad also demonstrates similar convergence properties when integrated with a novel coordinate-wise variant of our adaptive batch size strategies. Our theoretical claims are supported by numerical experiments on various image classification tasks, highlighting the enhanced adaptability of progressive batching protocols in deep learning and the potential of such adaptive batch size strategies with adaptive gradient optimizers in large-scale model training.

Most machine learning (ML) systems assume stationary and matching data distributions during training and deployment. This is often a false assumption. When ML models are deployed on real devices, data distributions often shift over time due to changes in environmental factors, sensor characteristics, and task-of-interest. While it is possible to have a human-in-the-loop to monitor for distribution shifts and engineer new architectures in response to these shifts, such a setup is not cost-effective. Instead, non-stationary automated ML (AutoML) models are needed. This paper presents the Encoder-Adaptor-Reconfigurator (EAR) framework for efficient continual learning under domain shifts. The EAR framework uses a fixed deep neural network (DNN) feature encoder and trains shallow networks on top of the encoder to handle novel data. The EAR framework is capable of 1) detecting when new data is out-of-distribution (OOD) by combining DNNs with hyperdimensional computing (HDC), 2) identifying low-parameter neural adaptors to adapt the model to the OOD data using zero-shot neural architecture search (ZS-NAS), and 3) minimizing catastrophic forgetting on previous tasks by progressively growing the neural architecture as needed and dynamically routing data through the appropriate adaptors and reconfigurators for handling domain-incremental and class-incremental continual learning. We systematically evaluate our approach on several benchmark datasets for domain adaptation and demonstrate strong performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for OOD detection and few-/zero-shot NAS.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Adapting pre-trained models with broad capabilities has become standard practice for learning a wide range of downstream tasks. The typical approach of fine-tuning different models for each task is performant, but incurs a substantial memory cost. To efficiently learn multiple downstream tasks we introduce Task Adaptive Parameter Sharing (TAPS), a general method for tuning a base model to a new task by adaptively modifying a small, task-specific subset of layers. This enables multi-task learning while minimizing resources used and competition between tasks. TAPS solves a joint optimization problem which determines which layers to share with the base model and the value of the task-specific weights. Further, a sparsity penalty on the number of active layers encourages weight sharing with the base model. Compared to other methods, TAPS retains high accuracy on downstream tasks while introducing few task-specific parameters. Moreover, TAPS is agnostic to the model architecture and requires only minor changes to the training scheme. We evaluate our method on a suite of fine-tuning tasks and architectures (ResNet, DenseNet, ViT) and show that it achieves state-of-the-art performance while being simple to implement.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

The change in data distribution over time, also known as concept drift, poses a significant challenge to the reliability of online learning methods. Existing methods typically require model retraining or drift detection, both of which demand high computational costs and are often unsuitable for real-time applications. To address these limitations, a lightweight, fast and efficient random vector functional-link network termed Lite-RVFL is proposed, capable of adapting to concept drift without drift detection and retraining. Lite-RVFL introduces a novel objective function that assigns weights exponentially increasing to new samples, thereby emphasizing recent data and enabling timely adaptation. Theoretical analysis confirms the feasibility of this objective function for drift adaptation, and an efficient incremental update rule is derived. Experimental results on a real-world safety assessment task validate the efficiency, effectiveness in adapting to drift, and potential to capture temporal patterns of Lite-RVFL. The source code is available at https://github.com/songqiaohu/Lite-RVFL.

Recommendation systems (RS) aim to provide personalized content, but they face a challenge in unbiased learning due to selection bias, where users only interact with items they prefer. This bias leads to a distorted representation of user preferences, which hinders the accuracy and fairness of recommendations. To address the issue, various methods such as error imputation based, inverse propensity scoring, and doubly robust techniques have been developed. Despite the progress, from the structural causal model perspective, previous debiasing methods in RS assume the independence of the exogenous variables. In this paper, we release this assumption and propose a learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization to learn a prediction model. We first discuss the correlation and difference between unmeasured confounding and our scenario, then we propose a unified method that effectively handles latent exogenous variables. Specifically, our method models the data generation process with latent exogenous variables under mild normality assumptions. We then develop a Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically estimate the likelihood function. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is at https://github.com/WallaceSUI/kdd25-background-variable.

Federated learning is a distributed machine learning paradigm in which a large number of clients coordinate with a central server to learn a model without sharing their own training data. Standard federated optimization methods such as Federated Averaging (FedAvg) are often difficult to tune and exhibit unfavorable convergence behavior. In non-federated settings, adaptive optimization methods have had notable success in combating such issues. In this work, we propose federated versions of adaptive optimizers, including Adagrad, Adam, and Yogi, and analyze their convergence in the presence of heterogeneous data for general non-convex settings. Our results highlight the interplay between client heterogeneity and communication efficiency. We also perform extensive experiments on these methods and show that the use of adaptive optimizers can significantly improve the performance of federated learning.

Few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL) confronts the challenge of integrating new classes into a model with minimal training samples while preserving the knowledge of previously learned classes. Traditional methods widely adopt static adaptation relying on a fixed parameter space to learn from data that arrive sequentially, prone to overfitting to the current session. Existing dynamic strategies require the expansion of the parameter space continually, leading to increased complexity. To address these challenges, we integrate the recently proposed selective state space model (SSM) into FSCIL. Concretely, we propose a dual selective SSM projector that dynamically adjusts the projection parameters based on the intermediate features for dynamic adaptation. The dual design enables the model to maintain the robust features of base classes, while adaptively learning distinctive feature shifts for novel classes. Additionally, we develop a class-sensitive selective scan mechanism to guide dynamic adaptation. It minimizes the disruption to base-class representations caused by training on novel data, and meanwhile, forces the selective scan to perform in distinct patterns between base and novel classes. Experiments on miniImageNet, CUB-200, and CIFAR-100 demonstrate that our framework outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/xiaojieli0903/Mamba-FSCIL.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

The rapid growth of large models has raised concerns about their environmental impact and equity in accessibility due to significant computational costs. Low-Rank Adapters (LoRA) offer a lightweight solution for finetuning large models, resulting in an abundance of publicly available adapters tailored to diverse domains. We ask: Can these pretrained adapters be leveraged to further streamline adaptation to new tasks while addressing these challenges? We introduce EigenLoRAx, a parameter-efficient finetuning method that recycles existing adapters to create a principal subspace aligned with their shared domain knowledge which can be further augmented with orthogonal basis vectors in low-resource scenarios. This enables rapid adaptation to new tasks by learning only lightweight coefficients on the principal components of the subspace - eliminating the need to finetune entire adapters. EigenLoRAx requires significantly fewer parameters and memory, improving efficiency for both training and inference. Our method demonstrates strong performance across diverse domains and tasks, offering a scalable for edge-based applications, personalization, and equitable deployment of large models in resource-constrained environments.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Despite superior training outcomes, adaptive optimization methods such as Adam, Adagrad or RMSprop have been found to generalize poorly compared to Stochastic gradient descent (SGD). These methods tend to perform well in the initial portion of training but are outperformed by SGD at later stages of training. We investigate a hybrid strategy that begins training with an adaptive method and switches to SGD when appropriate. Concretely, we propose SWATS, a simple strategy which switches from Adam to SGD when a triggering condition is satisfied. The condition we propose relates to the projection of Adam steps on the gradient subspace. By design, the monitoring process for this condition adds very little overhead and does not increase the number of hyperparameters in the optimizer. We report experiments on several standard benchmarks such as: ResNet, SENet, DenseNet and PyramidNet for the CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 data sets, ResNet on the tiny-ImageNet data set and language modeling with recurrent networks on the PTB and WT2 data sets. The results show that our strategy is capable of closing the generalization gap between SGD and Adam on a majority of the tasks.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

The training and fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) often involve diverse textual data from multiple sources, which poses challenges due to conflicting gradient directions, hindering optimization and specialization. These challenges can undermine model generalization across tasks, resulting in reduced downstream performance. Recent research suggests that fine-tuning LLMs on carefully selected, task-specific subsets of data can match or even surpass the performance of using the entire dataset. Building on these insights, we propose the Ensembles of Low-Rank Expert Adapters (ELREA) framework to improve the model's capability to handle diverse tasks. ELREA clusters the training instructions based on their gradient directions, representing different areas of expertise and thereby reducing conflicts during optimization. Expert adapters are then trained on these clusters, utilizing the low-rank adaptation (LoRA) technique to ensure training efficiency and model scalability. During inference, ELREA combines predictions from the most relevant expert adapters based on the input data's gradient similarity to the training clusters, ensuring optimal adapter selection for each task. Experiments show that our method outperforms baseline LoRA adapters trained on the full dataset and other ensemble approaches with similar training and inference complexity across a range of domain-specific tasks.

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of interpretable prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is the bread and butter of Large Language Model (LLM) finetuning. LoRA learns an additive low-rank perturbation, AB, of a pretrained matrix parameter W to align the model to a new task or dataset with W+AB. We identify three core limitations to LoRA for finetuning--a setting that employs limited amount of data and training steps. First, LoRA employs Dropout to prevent overfitting. We prove that Dropout is only suitable for long training episodes but fails to converge to a reliable regularizer for short training episodes. Second, LoRA's initialization of B at 0 creates a slow training dynamic between A and B. That dynamic is also exacerbated by Dropout that further slows the escape from 0 for B which is particularly harmful for short training episodes. Third, the scaling factor multiplying each LoRA additive perturbation creates ``short-sighted'' interactions between the LoRA modules of different layers. Motivated by principled analysis of those limitations, we find an elegant solution: a Dropout-free, scaling-free, LoRA with Adaptive Learning rate--coined ALLoRA. By scaling the per sample and per parameter gradients with a coefficient inversely proportional to parameters' ell_2 norm, ALLoRA alleviates those three limitations. As a by-product, ALLoRA removes two hyper-parameters from LoRA: the scaling factor and the dropout rate. Empirical results show that ALLoRA admits better accuracy than LoRA on various settings, including against recent LoRA variants such as Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Adaptation (DoRA). Ablation studies show our solution is the optimal in a family of weight-dependent / output-dependent approaches on various LLMs including the latest Llama3.

Iterative methods are ubiquitous in large-scale scientific computing applications, and a number of approaches based on meta-learning have been recently proposed to accelerate them. However, a systematic study of these approaches and how they differ from meta-learning is lacking. In this paper, we propose a framework to analyze such learning-based acceleration approaches, where one can immediately identify a departure from classical meta-learning. We show that this departure may lead to arbitrary deterioration of model performance. Based on our analysis, we introduce a novel training method for learning-based acceleration of iterative methods. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that the proposed method improves upon the existing methods, and demonstrate its significant advantage and versatility through various numerical applications.

Adapting deep learning models to new domains often requires computationally intensive retraining and risks catastrophic forgetting. While fine-tuning enables domain-specific adaptation, it can reduce robustness to distribution shifts, impacting out-of-distribution (OOD) performance. Pre-trained zero-shot models like CLIP offer strong generalization but may suffer degraded robustness after fine-tuning. Building on Task Adaptive Parameter Sharing (TAPS), we propose a simple yet effective extension as a parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) method, using an indicator function to selectively activate Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) blocks. Our approach minimizes knowledge loss, retains its generalization strengths under domain shifts, and significantly reduces computational costs compared to traditional fine-tuning. We demonstrate that effective fine-tuning can be achieved with as few as 5\% of active blocks, substantially improving efficiency. Evaluations on pre-trained models such as CLIP and DINO-ViT demonstrate our method's broad applicability and effectiveness in maintaining performance and knowledge retention.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any testing sample. This task is particularly important for deep models when the test environment changes frequently. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, we still face two practical challenges: 1) existing methods have to perform backward computation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable prediction cost to many applications; 2) while existing TTA solutions can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as catastrophic forgetting). In this paper, we point out that not all the test samples contribute equally to model adaptation, and high-entropy ones may lead to noisy gradients that could disrupt the model. Motivated by this, we propose an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples, on which the model is updated to minimize the entropy loss for test-time adaptation. Furthermore, to alleviate the forgetting issue, we introduce a Fisher regularizer to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes, where the Fisher importance is estimated from test samples with generated pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Tuning the regularization parameter in penalized regression models is an expensive task, requiring multiple models to be fit along a path of parameters. Strong screening rules drastically reduce computational costs by lowering the dimensionality of the input prior to fitting. We develop strong screening rules for group-based Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) models: Group SLOPE and Sparse-group SLOPE. The developed rules are applicable to the wider family of group-based OWL models, including OSCAR. Our experiments on both synthetic and real data show that the screening rules significantly accelerate the fitting process. The screening rules make it accessible for group SLOPE and sparse-group SLOPE to be applied to high-dimensional datasets, particularly those encountered in genetics.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

In this paper, we present an Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework that aims to boost the performance of deep neural networks by intelligently fusing features through ensemble learning techniques. The proposed framework integrates ensemble learning strategies with deep learning architectures to create a more robust and adaptable model capable of handling complex tasks across various domains. By leveraging intelligent feature fusion methods, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework generates more discriminative and effective feature representations, leading to improved model performance and generalization capabilities. We conducted extensive experiments and evaluations on several benchmark datasets, including image classification, object detection, natural language processing, and graph-based learning tasks. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms baseline models and traditional feature fusion techniques, highlighting its effectiveness in enhancing deep learning models' performance. Furthermore, we provide insights into the impact of intelligent feature fusion on model performance and discuss the potential applications of the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework in real-world scenarios. The paper also explores the design and implementation of adaptive ensemble models, ensemble training strategies, and meta-learning techniques, which contribute to the framework's versatility and adaptability. In conclusion, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework represents a significant advancement in the field of feature fusion and ensemble learning for deep neural networks, with the potential to transform a wide range of applications across multiple domains.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

The full potential of large pretrained models remains largely untapped in control domains like robotics. This is mainly because of the scarcity of data and the computational challenges associated with training or fine-tuning these large models for such applications. Prior work mainly emphasizes effective pretraining of large models for decision-making, with little exploration into how to perform data-efficient continual adaptation of these models for new tasks. Recognizing these constraints, we introduce TAIL (Task-specific Adapters for Imitation Learning), a framework for efficient adaptation to new control tasks. Inspired by recent advancements in parameter-efficient fine-tuning in language domains, we explore efficient fine-tuning techniques -- e.g., Bottleneck Adapters, P-Tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) -- in TAIL to adapt large pretrained models for new tasks with limited demonstration data. Our extensive experiments in large-scale language-conditioned manipulation tasks comparing prevalent parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques and adaptation baselines suggest that TAIL with LoRA can achieve the best post-adaptation performance with only 1\% of the trainable parameters of full fine-tuning, while avoiding catastrophic forgetting and preserving adaptation plasticity in continual learning settings.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Learned Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (LISTA) introduces the concept of unrolling an iterative algorithm and training it like a neural network. It has had great success on sparse recovery. In this paper, we show that adding momentum to intermediate variables in the LISTA network achieves a better convergence rate and, in particular, the network with instance-optimal parameters is superlinearly convergent. Moreover, our new theoretical results lead to a practical approach of automatically and adaptively calculating the parameters of a LISTA network layer based on its previous layers. Perhaps most surprisingly, such an adaptive-parameter procedure reduces the training of LISTA to tuning only three hyperparameters from data: a new record set in the context of the recent advances on trimming down LISTA complexity. We call this new ultra-light weight network HyperLISTA. Compared to state-of-the-art LISTA models, HyperLISTA achieves almost the same performance on seen data distributions and performs better when tested on unseen distributions (specifically, those with different sparsity levels and nonzero magnitudes). Code is available: https://github.com/VITA-Group/HyperLISTA.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) provides an effective yet efficient solution for fine-tuning large language models (LLM). The modular and plug-and-play nature of LoRA enables the integration of diverse domain-specific LoRAs to enhance the capabilities of LLMs. Previous research on exploiting multiple LoRAs either focuses on specific isolated downstream tasks or fixes the selection of LoRAs during training. However, in real-world scenarios, LLMs receive diverse prompts covering different tasks, and the pool of candidate LoRAs is often dynamically updated. To bridge this gap, we propose LoraRetriever, a retrieve-then-compose framework that adaptively retrieves and composes multiple LoRAs according to the input prompts. LoraRetriever contains three main components: firstly, identifying and retrieving LoRAs relevant to the given input; secondly, formulating strategies for effectively integrating the retrieved LoRAs; and thirdly, developing efficient batch inference to accommodate heterogeneous requests. Experimental results indicate that LoraRetriever consistently outperforms the baselines, highlighting its practical effectiveness and versatility.

When an agent encounters a continual stream of new tasks in the lifelong learning setting, it leverages the knowledge it gained from the earlier tasks to help learn the new tasks better. In such a scenario, identifying an efficient knowledge representation becomes a challenging problem. Most research works propose to either store a subset of examples from the past tasks in a replay buffer, dedicate a separate set of parameters to each task or penalize excessive updates over parameters by introducing a regularization term. While existing methods employ the general task-agnostic stochastic gradient descent update rule, we propose a task-aware optimizer that adapts the learning rate based on the relatedness among tasks. We utilize the directions taken by the parameters during the updates by accumulating the gradients specific to each task. These task-based accumulated gradients act as a knowledge base that is maintained and updated throughout the stream. We empirically show that our proposed adaptive learning rate not only accounts for catastrophic forgetting but also allows positive backward transfer. We also show that our method performs better than several state-of-the-art methods in lifelong learning on complex datasets with a large number of tasks.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Continual learning entails learning a sequence of tasks and balancing their knowledge appropriately. With limited access to old training samples, much of the current work in deep neural networks has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting of old tasks in gradient-based optimization. However, the normalization layers provide an exception, as they are updated interdependently by the gradient and statistics of currently observed training samples, which require specialized strategies to mitigate recency bias. In this work, we focus on the most popular Batch Normalization (BN) and provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of its sub-optimality in continual learning. Our analysis demonstrates the dilemma between balance and adaptation of BN statistics for incremental tasks, which potentially affects training stability and generalization. Targeting on these particular challenges, we propose Adaptive Balance of BN (AdaB^2N), which incorporates appropriately a Bayesian-based strategy to adapt task-wise contributions and a modified momentum to balance BN statistics, corresponding to the training and testing stages. By implementing BN in a continual learning fashion, our approach achieves significant performance gains across a wide range of benchmarks, particularly for the challenging yet realistic online scenarios (e.g., up to 7.68%, 6.86% and 4.26% on Split CIFAR-10, Split CIFAR-100 and Split Mini-ImageNet, respectively). Our code is available at https://github.com/lvyilin/AdaB2N.

Low-rank approximation is a fundamental technique in modern data analysis, widely utilized across various fields such as signal processing, machine learning, and natural language processing. Despite its ubiquity, the mechanics of low-rank approximation and its application in adaptation can sometimes be obscure, leaving practitioners and researchers with questions about its true capabilities and limitations. This paper seeks to clarify low-rank approximation and adaptation by offering a comprehensive guide that reveals their inner workings and explains their utility in a clear and accessible way. Our focus here is to develop a solid intuition for how low-rank approximation and adaptation operate, and why they are so effective. We begin with basic concepts and gradually build up to the mathematical underpinnings, ensuring that readers of all backgrounds can gain a deeper understanding of low-rank approximation and adaptation. We strive to strike a balance between informal explanations and rigorous mathematics, ensuring that both newcomers and experienced experts can benefit from this survey. Additionally, we introduce new low-rank decomposition and adaptation algorithms that have not yet been explored in the field, hoping that future researchers will investigate their potential applicability.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

For deployment, neural architecture search should be hardware-aware, in order to satisfy the device-specific constraints (e.g., memory usage, latency and energy consumption) and enhance the model efficiency. Existing methods on hardware-aware NAS collect a large number of samples (e.g., accuracy and latency) from a target device, either builds a lookup table or a latency estimator. However, such approach is impractical in real-world scenarios as there exist numerous devices with different hardware specifications, and collecting samples from such a large number of devices will require prohibitive computational and monetary cost. To overcome such limitations, we propose Hardware-adaptive Efficient Latency Predictor (HELP), which formulates the device-specific latency estimation problem as a meta-learning problem, such that we can estimate the latency of a model's performance for a given task on an unseen device with a few samples. To this end, we introduce novel hardware embeddings to embed any devices considering them as black-box functions that output latencies, and meta-learn the hardware-adaptive latency predictor in a device-dependent manner, using the hardware embeddings. We validate the proposed HELP for its latency estimation performance on unseen platforms, on which it achieves high estimation performance with as few as 10 measurement samples, outperforming all relevant baselines. We also validate end-to-end NAS frameworks using HELP against ones without it, and show that it largely reduces the total time cost of the base NAS method, in latency-constrained settings. Code is available at https://github.com/HayeonLee/HELP.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Training deep neural networks requires intricate initialization and careful selection of learning rates. The emergence of stochastic gradient optimization methods that use adaptive learning rates based on squared past gradients, e.g., AdaGrad, AdaDelta, and Adam, eases the job slightly. However, such methods have also been proven problematic in recent studies with their own pitfalls including non-convergence issues and so on. Alternative variants have been proposed for enhancement, such as AMSGrad, AdaShift and AdaBound. In this work, we identify a new problem of adaptive learning rate methods that exhibits at the beginning of learning where Adam produces extremely large learning rates that inhibit the start of learning. We propose the Adaptive and Momental Bound (AdaMod) method to restrict the adaptive learning rates with adaptive and momental upper bounds. The dynamic learning rate bounds are based on the exponential moving averages of the adaptive learning rates themselves, which smooth out unexpected large learning rates and stabilize the training of deep neural networks. Our experiments verify that AdaMod eliminates the extremely large learning rates throughout the training and brings significant improvements especially on complex networks such as DenseNet and Transformer, compared to Adam. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/lancopku/AdaMod

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

The "pre-training rightarrow downstream adaptation" presents both new opportunities and challenges for Continual Learning (CL). Although the recent state-of-the-art in CL is achieved through Parameter-Efficient-Tuning (PET) adaptation paradigm, only prompt has been explored, limiting its application to Transformers only. In this paper, we position prompting as one instantiation of PET, and propose a unified CL framework with general PET, dubbed as Learning-Accumulation-Ensemble (LAE). PET, e.g., using Adapter, LoRA, or Prefix, can adapt a pre-trained model to downstream tasks with fewer parameters and resources. Given a PET method, our LAE framework incorporates it for CL with three novel designs. 1) Learning: the pre-trained model adapts to the new task by tuning an online PET module, along with our adaptation speed calibration to align different PET modules, 2) Accumulation: the task-specific knowledge learned by the online PET module is accumulated into an offline PET module through momentum update, 3) Ensemble: During inference, we respectively construct two experts with online/offline PET modules (which are favored by the novel/historical tasks) for prediction ensemble. We show that LAE is compatible with a battery of PET methods and gains strong CL capability. For example, LAE with Adaptor PET surpasses the prior state-of-the-art by 1.3% and 3.6% in last-incremental accuracy on CIFAR100 and ImageNet-R datasets, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/gqk/LAE.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

We propose a Distributional Approach for addressing Controlled Text Generation from pre-trained Language Models (LMs). This approach permits to specify, in a single formal framework, both "pointwise" and "distributional" constraints over the target LM -- to our knowledge, the first model with such generality -- while minimizing KL divergence from the initial LM distribution. The optimal target distribution is then uniquely determined as an explicit EBM (Energy-Based Model) representation. From that optimal representation we then train a target controlled Autoregressive LM through an adaptive distributional variant of Policy Gradient. We conduct a first set of experiments over pointwise constraints showing the advantages of our approach over a set of baselines, in terms of obtaining a controlled LM balancing constraint satisfaction with divergence from the initial LM. We then perform experiments over distributional constraints, a unique feature of our approach, demonstrating its potential as a remedy to the problem of Bias in Language Models. Through an ablation study, we show the effectiveness of our adaptive technique for obtaining faster convergence. (Code available at https://github.com/naver/gdc)

Online continual learning (CL) studies the problem of learning continuously from a single-pass data stream while adapting to new data and mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Recently, by storing a small subset of old data, replay-based methods have shown promising performance. Unlike previous methods that focus on sample storage or knowledge distillation against catastrophic forgetting, this paper aims to understand why the online learning models fail to generalize well from a new perspective of shortcut learning. We identify shortcut learning as the key limiting factor for online CL, where the learned features may be biased, not generalizable to new tasks, and may have an adverse impact on knowledge distillation. To tackle this issue, we present the online prototype learning (OnPro) framework for online CL. First, we propose online prototype equilibrium to learn representative features against shortcut learning and discriminative features to avoid class confusion, ultimately achieving an equilibrium status that separates all seen classes well while learning new classes. Second, with the feedback of online prototypes, we devise a novel adaptive prototypical feedback mechanism to sense the classes that are easily misclassified and then enhance their boundaries. Extensive experimental results on widely-used benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of OnPro over the state-of-the-art baseline methods. Source code is available at https://github.com/weilllllls/OnPro.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Adapters and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) are parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques designed to make the training of language models more efficient. Previous results demonstrated that these methods can even improve performance on some classification tasks. This paper complements the existing research by investigating how these techniques influence the classification performance and computation costs compared to full fine-tuning when applied to multilingual text classification tasks (genre, framing, and persuasion techniques detection; with different input lengths, number of predicted classes and classification difficulty), some of which have limited training data. In addition, we conduct in-depth analyses of their efficacy across different training scenarios (training on the original multilingual data; on the translations into English; and on a subset of English-only data) and different languages. Our findings provide valuable insights into the applicability of the parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques, particularly to complex multilingual and multilabel classification tasks.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely used finetuning method for large models. Its small memory footprint allows practitioners to adapt large models to specific tasks at a fraction of the cost of full finetuning. Different modifications have been proposed to enhance its efficiency by, for example, setting the learning rate, the rank, and the initialization. Another improvement axis is adapter placement strategy: when using LoRA, practitioners usually pick module types to adapt with LoRA, such as Query and Key modules. Few works have studied the problem of adapter placement, with nonconclusive results: original LoRA paper suggested placing adapters in attention modules, while other works suggested placing them in the MLP modules. Through an intuitive theoretical analysis, we introduce PLoP (Precise LoRA Placement), a lightweight method that allows automatic identification of module types where LoRA adapters should be placed, given a pretrained model and a finetuning task. We demonstrate that PLoP consistently outperforms, and in the worst case competes, with commonly used placement strategies through comprehensive experiments on supervised finetuning and reinforcement learning for reasoning.

Current approaches for training Process Reward Models (PRMs) often involve breaking down responses into multiple reasoning steps using rule-based techniques, such as using predefined placeholder tokens or setting the reasoning step's length into a fixed size. These approaches overlook the fact that specific words do not typically mark true decision points in a text. To address this, we propose AdaptiveStep, a method that divides reasoning steps based on the model's confidence in predicting the next word. This division method provides more decision-making information at each step, enhancing downstream tasks, such as reward model learning. Moreover, our method does not require manual annotation. We demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments with AdaptiveStep-trained PRMs in mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks. Experimental results indicate that the outcome PRM achieves state-of-the-art Best-of-N performance, surpassing greedy search strategy with token-level value-guided decoding, while also reducing construction costs by over 30% compared to existing open-source PRMs. In addition, we provide a thorough analysis and case study on the PRM's performance, transferability, and generalization capabilities.

Adaptive gradient methods, such as Adam and LAMB, have demonstrated excellent performance in the training of large language models. Nevertheless, the need for adaptivity requires maintaining second-moment estimates of the per-parameter gradients, which entails a high cost of extra memory overheads. To solve this problem, several memory-efficient optimizers (e.g., Adafactor) have been proposed to obtain a drastic reduction in auxiliary memory usage, but with a performance penalty. In this paper, we first study a confidence-guided strategy to reduce the instability of existing memory efficient optimizers. Based on this strategy, we propose CAME to simultaneously achieve two goals: fast convergence as in traditional adaptive methods, and low memory usage as in memory-efficient methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the training stability and superior performance of CAME across various NLP tasks such as BERT and GPT-2 training. Notably, for BERT pre-training on the large batch size of 32,768, our proposed optimizer attains faster convergence and higher accuracy compared with the Adam optimizer. The implementation of CAME is publicly available.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) systems have been shown to efficiently build good models for new datasets. However, it is often not clear how well they can adapt when the data evolves over time. The main goal of this study is to understand the effect of data stream challenges such as concept drift on the performance of AutoML methods, and which adaptation strategies can be employed to make them more robust. To that end, we propose 6 concept drift adaptation strategies and evaluate their effectiveness on different AutoML approaches. We do this for a variety of AutoML approaches for building machine learning pipelines, including those that leverage Bayesian optimization, genetic programming, and random search with automated stacking. These are evaluated empirically on real-world and synthetic data streams with different types of concept drift. Based on this analysis, we propose ways to develop more sophisticated and robust AutoML techniques.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Fast changing states or volatile environments pose a significant challenge to online optimization, which needs to perform rapid adaptation under limited observation. In this paper, we give query and regret optimal bandit algorithms under the strict notion of strongly adaptive regret, which measures the maximum regret over any contiguous interval I. Due to its worst-case nature, there is an almost-linear Omega(|I|^{1-epsilon}) regret lower bound, when only one query per round is allowed [Daniely el al, ICML 2015]. Surprisingly, with just two queries per round, we give Strongly Adaptive Bandit Learner (StABL) that achieves O(n|I|) adaptive regret for multi-armed bandits with n arms. The bound is tight and cannot be improved in general. Our algorithm leverages a multiplicative update scheme of varying stepsizes and a carefully chosen observation distribution to control the variance. Furthermore, we extend our results and provide optimal algorithms in the bandit convex optimization setting. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms under volatile environments and for downstream tasks, such as algorithm selection for hyperparameter optimization.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

Machine learning models are often personalized with categorical attributes that are protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. In this work, we show models that are personalized with group attributes can reduce performance at a group level. We propose formal conditions to ensure the "fair use" of group attributes in prediction tasks by training one additional model -- i.e., collective preference guarantees to ensure that each group who provides personal data will receive a tailored gain in performance in return. We present sufficient conditions to ensure fair use in empirical risk minimization and characterize failure modes that lead to fair use violations due to standard practices in model development and deployment. We present a comprehensive empirical study of fair use in clinical prediction tasks. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of fair use violations in practice and illustrate simple interventions to mitigate their harm.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Considerable effort has been dedicated to mitigating toxicity, but existing methods often require drastic modifications to model parameters or the use of computationally intensive auxiliary models. Furthermore, previous approaches have often neglected the crucial factor of language's evolving nature over time. In this work, we present a comprehensive perspective on toxicity mitigation that takes into account its changing nature. We introduce Goodtriever, a flexible methodology that matches the current state-of-the-art toxicity mitigation while achieving 43% relative latency reduction during inference and being more computationally efficient. By incorporating a retrieval-based approach at decoding time, Goodtriever enables toxicity-controlled text generation. Our research advocates for an increased focus on adaptable mitigation techniques, which better reflect the data drift models face when deployed in the wild. Code and data are available at https://github.com/for-ai/goodtriever.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

We study the computational limits of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) update for finetuning transformer-based models using fine-grained complexity theory. Our key observation is that the existence of low-rank decompositions within the gradient computation of LoRA adaptation leads to possible algorithmic speedup. This allows us to (i) identify a phase transition behavior and (ii) prove the existence of nearly linear algorithms by controlling the LoRA update computation term by term, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH). For the former, we identify a sharp transition in the efficiency of all possible rank-r LoRA update algorithms for transformers, based on specific norms resulting from the multiplications of the input sequence X, pretrained weights W^star, and adapter matrices alpha B A / r. Specifically, we derive a shared upper bound threshold for such norms and show that efficient (sub-quadratic) approximation algorithms of LoRA exist only below this threshold. For the latter, we prove the existence of nearly linear approximation algorithms for LoRA adaptation by utilizing the hierarchical low-rank structures of LoRA gradients and approximating the gradients with a series of chained low-rank approximations. To showcase our theory, we consider two practical scenarios: partial (e.g., only W_V and W_Q) and full adaptations (e.g., W_Q, W_V, and W_K) of weights in attention heads.

In this paper, we introduce Nested Low-Rank Adaptation (NoRA), a novel approach to parameter-efficient fine-tuning that extends the capabilities of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) techniques. Vanilla LoRA overlooks pre-trained weight inheritance and still requires fine-tuning numerous parameters. To addresses these issues, our NoRA adopts a dual-layer nested structure with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), effectively leveraging original matrix knowledge while reducing tunable parameters. Specifically, NoRA freezes the outer LoRA weights and utilizes an inner LoRA design, providing enhanced control over model optimization. This approach allows the model to more precisely adapt to specific tasks while maintaining a compact parameter space. By freezing outer LoRA weights and using an inner LoRA design, NoRA enables precise task adaptation with a compact parameter space. Evaluations on tasks including commonsense reasoning with large language models, fine-tuning vision-language models, and subject-driven generation demonstrate NoRA's superiority over LoRA and its variants. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

In Continual learning (CL) balancing effective adaptation while combating catastrophic forgetting is a central challenge. Many of the recent best-performing methods utilize various forms of prior task data, e.g. a replay buffer, to tackle the catastrophic forgetting problem. Having access to previous task data can be restrictive in many real-world scenarios, for example when task data is sensitive or proprietary. To overcome the necessity of using previous tasks' data, in this work, we start with strong representation learning methods that have been shown to be less prone to forgetting. We propose a holistic approach to jointly learn the representation and class prototypes while maintaining the relevance of old class prototypes and their embedded similarities. Specifically, samples are mapped to an embedding space where the representations are learned using a supervised contrastive loss. Class prototypes are evolved continually in the same latent space, enabling learning and prediction at any point. To continually adapt the prototypes without keeping any prior task data, we propose a novel distillation loss that constrains class prototypes to maintain relative similarities as compared to new task data. This method yields state-of-the-art performance in the task-incremental setting, outperforming methods relying on large amounts of data, and provides strong performance in the class-incremental setting without using any stored data points.

Several first order stochastic optimization methods commonly used in the Euclidean domain such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD), accelerated gradient descent or variance reduced methods have already been adapted to certain Riemannian settings. However, some of the most popular of these optimization tools - namely Adam , Adagrad and the more recent Amsgrad - remain to be generalized to Riemannian manifolds. We discuss the difficulty of generalizing such adaptive schemes to the most agnostic Riemannian setting, and then provide algorithms and convergence proofs for geodesically convex objectives in the particular case of a product of Riemannian manifolds, in which adaptivity is implemented across manifolds in the cartesian product. Our generalization is tight in the sense that choosing the Euclidean space as Riemannian manifold yields the same algorithms and regret bounds as those that were already known for the standard algorithms. Experimentally, we show faster convergence and to a lower train loss value for Riemannian adaptive methods over their corresponding baselines on the realistic task of embedding the WordNet taxonomy in the Poincare ball.

In this work, we introduce Boolformer, the first Transformer architecture trained to perform end-to-end symbolic regression of Boolean functions. First, we show that it can predict compact formulas for complex functions which were not seen during training, when provided a clean truth table. Then, we demonstrate its ability to find approximate expressions when provided incomplete and noisy observations. We evaluate the Boolformer on a broad set of real-world binary classification datasets, demonstrating its potential as an interpretable alternative to classic machine learning methods. Finally, we apply it to the widespread task of modelling the dynamics of gene regulatory networks. Using a recent benchmark, we show that Boolformer is competitive with state-of-the art genetic algorithms with a speedup of several orders of magnitude. Our code and models are available publicly.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) significantly enhances controllability in generative models by interpolating conditional and unconditional predictions. However, standard CFG often employs a static unconditional input, which can be suboptimal for iterative generation processes where model uncertainty varies dynamically. We introduce Adaptive Classifier-Free Guidance (A-CFG), a novel method that tailors the unconditional input by leveraging the model's instantaneous predictive confidence. At each step of an iterative (masked) diffusion language model, A-CFG identifies tokens in the currently generated sequence for which the model exhibits low confidence. These tokens are temporarily re-masked to create a dynamic, localized unconditional input. This focuses CFG's corrective influence precisely on areas of ambiguity, leading to more effective guidance. We integrate A-CFG into a state-of-the-art masked diffusion language model and demonstrate its efficacy. Experiments on diverse language generation benchmarks show that A-CFG yields substantial improvements over standard CFG, achieving, for instance, a 3.9 point gain on GPQA. Our work highlights the benefit of dynamically adapting guidance mechanisms to model uncertainty in iterative generation.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) aims to enable models to continuously learn new classes while overcoming catastrophic forgetting. The introduction of pre-trained models has brought new tuning paradigms to CIL. In this paper, we revisit different parameter-efficient tuning (PET) methods within the context of continual learning. We observe that adapter tuning demonstrates superiority over prompt-based methods, even without parameter expansion in each learning session. Motivated by this, we propose incrementally tuning the shared adapter without imposing parameter update constraints, enhancing the learning capacity of the backbone. Additionally, we employ feature sampling from stored prototypes to retrain a unified classifier, further improving its performance. We estimate the semantic shift of old prototypes without access to past samples and update stored prototypes session by session. Our proposed method eliminates model expansion and avoids retaining any image samples. It surpasses previous pre-trained model-based CIL methods and demonstrates remarkable continual learning capabilities. Experimental results on five CIL benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Gradient-based meta-learning has proven to be highly effective at learning model initializations, representations, and update rules that allow fast adaptation from a few samples. The core idea behind these approaches is to use fast adaptation and generalization -- two second-order metrics -- as training signals on a meta-training dataset. However, little attention has been given to other possible second-order metrics. In this paper, we investigate a different training signal -- robustness to catastrophic interference -- and demonstrate that representations learned by directing minimizing interference are more conducive to incremental learning than those learned by just maximizing fast adaptation.