Daily Papers

Neural architecture search (NAS) has allowed for the automatic creation of new and effective neural network architectures, offering an alternative to the laborious process of manually designing complex architectures. However, traditional NAS algorithms are slow and require immense amounts of computing power. Recent research has investigated training-free NAS metrics for image classification architectures, drastically speeding up search algorithms. In this paper, we investigate training-free NAS metrics for recurrent neural network (RNN) and BERT-based transformer architectures, targeted towards language modeling tasks. First, we develop a new training-free metric, named hidden covariance, that predicts the trained performance of an RNN architecture and significantly outperforms existing training-free metrics. We experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of the hidden covariance metric on the NAS-Bench-NLP benchmark. Second, we find that the current search space paradigm for transformer architectures is not optimized for training-free neural architecture search. Instead, a simple qualitative analysis can effectively shrink the search space to the best performing architectures. This conclusion is based on our investigation of existing training-free metrics and new metrics developed from recent transformer pruning literature, evaluated on our own benchmark of trained BERT architectures. Ultimately, our analysis shows that the architecture search space and the training-free metric must be developed together in order to achieve effective results.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

We propose a novel theoretical framework to understand contrastive self-supervised learning (SSL) methods that employ dual pairs of deep ReLU networks (e.g., SimCLR). First, we prove that in each SGD update of SimCLR with various loss functions, including simple contrastive loss, soft Triplet loss and InfoNCE loss, the weights at each layer are updated by a covariance operator that specifically amplifies initial random selectivities that vary across data samples but survive averages over data augmentations. To further study what role the covariance operator plays and which features are learned in such a process, we model data generation and augmentation processes through a hierarchical latent tree model (HLTM) and prove that the hidden neurons of deep ReLU networks can learn the latent variables in HLTM, despite the fact that the network receives no direct supervision from these unobserved latent variables. This leads to a provable emergence of hierarchical features through the amplification of initially random selectivities through contrastive SSL. Extensive numerical studies justify our theoretical findings. Code is released in https://github.com/facebookresearch/luckmatters/tree/master/ssl.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

We introduce Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM), a learning paradigm to estimate invariant correlations across multiple training distributions. To achieve this goal, IRM learns a data representation such that the optimal classifier, on top of that data representation, matches for all training distributions. Through theory and experiments, we show how the invariances learned by IRM relate to the causal structures governing the data and enable out-of-distribution generalization.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer subtype. We refer to this problem as hidden stratification, and observe that it results from incompletely describing the meaningful variation in a dataset. While hidden stratification can substantially reduce the clinical efficacy of machine learning models, its effects remain difficult to measure. In this work, we assess the utility of several possible techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects, and characterize these effects on multiple medical imaging datasets. We find evidence that hidden stratification can occur in unidentified imaging subsets with low prevalence, low label quality, subtle distinguishing features, or spurious correlates, and that it can result in relative performance differences of over 20% on clinically important subsets. Finally, we explore the clinical implications of our findings, and suggest that evaluation of hidden stratification should be a critical component of any machine learning deployment in medical imaging.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

Decentralized learning enables distributed agents to collaboratively train a shared machine learning model without a central server, through local computation and peer-to-peer communication. Although each agent retains its dataset locally, sharing local models can still expose private information about the local training datasets to adversaries. To mitigate privacy attacks, a common strategy is to inject random artificial noise at each agent before exchanging local models between neighbors. However, this often leads to utility degradation due to the negative effects of cumulated artificial noise on the learning algorithm. In this work, we introduce CorN-DSGD, a novel covariance-based framework for generating correlated privacy noise across agents, which unifies several state-of-the-art methods as special cases. By leveraging network topology and mixing weights, CorN-DSGD optimizes the noise covariance to achieve network-wide noise cancellation. Experimental results show that CorN-DSGD cancels more noise than existing pairwise correlation schemes, improving model performance under formal privacy guarantees.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Once deployed, medical image analysis methods are often faced with unexpected image corruptions and noise perturbations. These unknown covariate shifts present significant challenges to deep learning based methods trained on "clean" images. This often results in unreliable predictions and poorly calibrated confidence, hence hindering clinical applicability. While recent methods have been developed to address specific issues such as confidence calibration or adversarial robustness, no single framework effectively tackles all these challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose LaDiNE, a novel ensemble learning method combining the robustness of Vision Transformers with diffusion-based generative models for improved reliability in medical image classification. Specifically, transformer encoder blocks are used as hierarchical feature extractors that learn invariant features from images for each ensemble member, resulting in features that are robust to input perturbations. In addition, diffusion models are used as flexible density estimators to estimate member densities conditioned on the invariant features, leading to improved modeling of complex data distributions while retaining properly calibrated confidence. Extensive experiments on tuberculosis chest X-rays and melanoma skin cancer datasets demonstrate that LaDiNE achieves superior performance compared to a wide range of state-of-the-art methods by simultaneously improving prediction accuracy and confidence calibration under unseen noise, adversarial perturbations, and resolution degradation.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

Invariance learning algorithms that conditionally filter out domain-specific random variables as distractors, do so based only on the data semantics, and not the target domain under evaluation. We show that a provably optimal and sample-efficient way of learning conditional invariances is by relaxing the invariance criterion to be non-commutatively directed towards the target domain. Under domain asymmetry, i.e., when the target domain contains semantically relevant information absent in the source, the risk of the encoder varphi^* that is optimal on average across domains is strictly lower-bounded by the risk of the target-specific optimal encoder Phi^*_tau. We prove that non-commutativity steers the optimization towards Phi^*_tau instead of varphi^*, bringing the H-divergence between domains down to zero, leading to a stricter bound on the target risk. Both our theory and experiments demonstrate that non-commutative invariance (NCI) can leverage source domain samples to meet the sample complexity needs of learning Phi^*_tau, surpassing SOTA invariance learning algorithms for domain adaptation, at times by over 2%, approaching the performance of an oracle. Implementation is available at https://github.com/abhrac/nci.

As an adaptive method, Shampoo employs a structured second-moment estimation, and its effectiveness has attracted growing attention. Prior work has primarily analyzed its estimation scheme through the Frobenius norm. Motivated by the natural connection between the second moment and a covariance matrix, we propose studying Shampoo's estimation as covariance estimation through the lens of Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimization. This alternative perspective reveals a previously hidden limitation, motivating improvements to Shampoo's design. Building on this insight, we develop a practical estimation scheme, termed KL-Shampoo, that eliminates Shampoo's reliance on Adam for stabilization, thereby removing the additional memory overhead introduced by Adam. Preliminary results show that KL-Shampoo improves Shampoo's performance, enabling it to stabilize without Adam and even outperform its Adam-stabilized variant, SOAP, in neural network pretraining.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have lately been used to uncover interpretable latent features in large language models. Here, we explore their potential for decomposing latent representations in complex and high-dimensional biological data, where the underlying variables are often unknown. On simulated data we show that generative hidden variables can be captured in learned representations in the form of superpositions. The degree to which they are learned depends on the completeness of the representations. Superpositions, however, are not identifiable if these generative variables are unknown. SAEs can to some extent recover these variables, yielding interpretable features. Applied to single-cell multi-omics data, we show that an SAE can uncover key biological processes such as carbon dioxide transport and ion homeostasis, which are crucial for red blood cell differentiation and immune function. Our findings highlight how SAEs can be used in advancing interpretability in biological and other scientific domains.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

In deep learning theory, the covariance matrix of the representations serves as a proxy to examine the network's trainability. Motivated by the success of Transformers, we study the covariance matrix of a modified Softmax-based attention model with skip connections in the proportional limit of infinite-depth-and-width. We show that at initialization the limiting distribution can be described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) indexed by the depth-to-width ratio. To achieve a well-defined stochastic limit, the Transformer's attention mechanism is modified by centering the Softmax output at identity, and scaling the Softmax logits by a width-dependent temperature parameter. We examine the stability of the network through the corresponding SDE, showing how the scale of both the drift and diffusion can be elegantly controlled with the aid of residual connections. The existence of a stable SDE implies that the covariance structure is well-behaved, even for very large depth and width, thus preventing the notorious issues of rank degeneracy in deep attention models. Finally, we show, through simulations, that the SDE provides a surprisingly good description of the corresponding finite-size model. We coin the name shaped Transformer for these architectural modifications.

Ensuring the quality and integrity of medical images is crucial for maintaining diagnostic accuracy in deep learning-based Computer-Aided Diagnosis and Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) systems. Covariate shifts are subtle variations in the data distribution caused by different imaging devices or settings and can severely degrade model performance, similar to the effects of adversarial attacks. Therefore, it is vital to have a lightweight and fast method to assess the quality of these images prior to using CAD models. AdverX-Ray addresses this need by serving as an image-quality assessment layer, designed to detect covariate shifts effectively. This Adversarial Variational Autoencoder prioritizes the discriminator's role, using the suboptimal outputs of the generator as negative samples to fine-tune the discriminator's ability to identify high-frequency artifacts. Images generated by adversarial networks often exhibit severe high-frequency artifacts, guiding the discriminator to focus excessively on these components. This makes the discriminator ideal for this approach. Trained on patches from X-ray images of specific machine models, AdverX-Ray can evaluate whether a scan matches the training distribution, or if a scan from the same machine is captured under different settings. Extensive comparisons with various OOD detection methods show that AdverX-Ray significantly outperforms existing techniques, achieving a 96.2% average AUROC using only 64 random patches from an X-ray. Its lightweight and fast architecture makes it suitable for real-time applications, enhancing the reliability of medical imaging systems. The code and pretrained models are publicly available.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

The role of hidden units in recurrent neural networks is typically seen as modeling memory, with research focusing on enhancing information retention through gating mechanisms. A less explored perspective views hidden units as active participants in the computation performed by the network, rather than passive memory stores. In this work, we revisit bi-linear operations, which involve multiplicative interactions between hidden units and input embeddings. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that they constitute a natural inductive bias for representing the evolution of hidden states in state tracking tasks. These are the simplest type of task that require hidden units to actively contribute to the behavior of the network. We also show that bi-linear state updates form a natural hierarchy corresponding to state tracking tasks of increasing complexity, with popular linear recurrent networks such as Mamba residing at the lowest-complexity center of that hierarchy.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Covariance matrices have proven highly effective across many scientific fields. Since these matrices lie within the Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) manifold - a Riemannian space with intrinsic non-Euclidean geometry, the primary challenge in representation learning is to respect this underlying geometric structure. Drawing inspiration from the success of Euclidean deep learning, researchers have developed neural networks on the SPD manifolds for more faithful covariance embedding learning. A notable advancement in this area is the implementation of Riemannian batch normalization (RBN), which has been shown to improve the performance of SPD network models. Nonetheless, the Riemannian metric beneath the existing RBN might fail to effectively deal with the ill-conditioned SPD matrices (ICSM), undermining the effectiveness of RBN. In contrast, the Bures-Wasserstein metric (BWM) demonstrates superior performance for ill-conditioning. In addition, the recently introduced Generalized BWM (GBWM) parameterizes the vanilla BWM via an SPD matrix, allowing for a more nuanced representation of vibrant geometries of the SPD manifold. Therefore, we propose a novel RBN algorithm based on the GBW geometry, incorporating a learnable metric parameter. Moreover, the deformation of GBWM by matrix power is also introduced to further enhance the representational capacity of GBWM-based RBN. Experimental results on different datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Differentially private learning algorithms inject noise into the learning process. While the most common private learning algorithm, DP-SGD, adds independent Gaussian noise in each iteration, recent work on matrix factorization mechanisms has shown empirically that introducing correlations in the noise can greatly improve their utility. We characterize the asymptotic learning utility for any choice of the correlation function, giving precise analytical bounds for linear regression and as the solution to a convex program for general convex functions. We show, using these bounds, how correlated noise provably improves upon vanilla DP-SGD as a function of problem parameters such as the effective dimension and condition number. Moreover, our analytical expression for the near-optimal correlation function circumvents the cubic complexity of the semi-definite program used to optimize the noise correlation matrix in previous work. We validate our theory with experiments on private deep learning. Our work matches or outperforms prior work while being efficient both in terms of compute and memory.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

The parameter space for any fixed architecture of feedforward ReLU neural networks serves as a proxy during training for the associated class of functions - but how faithful is this representation? It is known that many different parameter settings can determine the same function. Moreover, the degree of this redundancy is inhomogeneous: for some networks, the only symmetries are permutation of neurons in a layer and positive scaling of parameters at a neuron, while other networks admit additional hidden symmetries. In this work, we prove that, for any network architecture where no layer is narrower than the input, there exist parameter settings with no hidden symmetries. We also describe a number of mechanisms through which hidden symmetries can arise, and empirically approximate the functional dimension of different network architectures at initialization. These experiments indicate that the probability that a network has no hidden symmetries decreases towards 0 as depth increases, while increasing towards 1 as width and input dimension increase.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

A large part of the literature on learning disentangled representations focuses on variational autoencoders (VAE). Recent developments demonstrate that disentanglement cannot be obtained in a fully unsupervised setting without inductive biases on models and data. However, Khemakhem et al., AISTATS, 2020 suggest that employing a particular form of factorized prior, conditionally dependent on auxiliary variables complementing input observations, can be one such bias, resulting in an identifiable model with guarantees on disentanglement. Working along this line, we propose a novel VAE-based generative model with theoretical guarantees on identifiability. We obtain our conditional prior over the latents by learning an optimal representation, which imposes an additional strength on their regularization. We also extend our method to semi-supervised settings. Experimental results indicate superior performance with respect to state-of-the-art approaches, according to several established metrics proposed in the literature on disentanglement.

Real-world multivariate time series anomalies are rare and often unlabeled. Additionally, prevailing methods rely on increasingly complex architectures tuned to benchmarks, detecting only fragments of anomalous segments and overstating performance. In this paper, we introduce OracleAD, a simple and interpretable unsupervised framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. OracleAD encodes each variable's past sequence into a single causal embedding to jointly predict the present time point and reconstruct the input window, effectively modeling temporal dynamics. These embeddings then undergo a self-attention mechanism to project them into a shared latent space and capture spatial relationships. These relationships are not static, since they are modeled by a property that emerges from each variable's temporal dynamics. The projected embeddings are aligned to a Stable Latent Structure (SLS) representing normal-state relationships. Anomalies are identified using a dual scoring mechanism based on prediction error and deviation from the SLS, enabling fine-grained anomaly diagnosis at each time point and across individual variables. Since any noticeable SLS deviation originates from embeddings that violate the learned temporal causality of normal data, OracleAD directly pinpoints the root-cause variables at the embedding level. OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation protocols, while remaining interpretable through SLS.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Anomaly Detection (AD) in images is a fundamental computer vision problem and refers to identifying images and image substructures that deviate significantly from the norm. Popular AD algorithms commonly try to learn a model of normality from scratch using task specific datasets, but are limited to semi-supervised approaches employing mostly normal data due to the inaccessibility of anomalies on a large scale combined with the ambiguous nature of anomaly appearance. We follow an alternative approach and demonstrate that deep feature representations learned by discriminative models on large natural image datasets are well suited to describe normality and detect even subtle anomalies in a transfer learning setting. Our model of normality is established by fitting a multivariate Gaussian (MVG) to deep feature representations of classification networks trained on ImageNet using normal data only. By subsequently applying the Mahalanobis distance as the anomaly score we outperform the current state of the art on the public MVTec AD dataset, achieving an AUROC value of 95.8 pm 1.2 (mean pm SEM) over all 15 classes. We further investigate why the learned representations are discriminative to the AD task using Principal Component Analysis. We find that the principal components containing little variance in normal data are the ones crucial for discriminating between normal and anomalous instances. This gives a possible explanation to the often sub-par performance of AD approaches trained from scratch using normal data only. By selectively fitting a MVG to these most relevant components only, we are able to further reduce model complexity while retaining AD performance. We also investigate setting the working point by selecting acceptable False Positive Rate thresholds based on the MVG assumption. Code available at https://github.com/ORippler/gaussian-ad-mvtec

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Sexual dimorphism is a critical factor in many biological and medical research fields. In biomechanics and bioengineering, understanding sex differences is crucial for studying musculoskeletal conditions such as temporomandibular disorder (TMD). This paper focuses on the association between the craniofacial skeletal morphology and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) related masticatory muscle attachments to discern sex differences. Data were collected from 10 male and 11 female cadaver heads to investigate sex-specific relationships between the skull and muscles. We propose a conditional cross-covariance reduction (CCR) model, designed to examine the dynamic association between two sets of random variables conditioned on a third binary variable (e.g., sex), highlighting the most distinctive sex-related relationships between skull and muscle attachments in the human cadaver data. Under the CCR model, we employ a sparse singular value decomposition algorithm and introduce a sequential permutation for selecting sparsity (SPSS) method to select important variables and to determine the optimal number of selected variables.

Symmetry learning has proven to be an effective approach for extracting the hidden structure of data, with the concept of equivariance relation playing the central role. However, most of the current studies are built on architectural theory and corresponding assumptions on the form of data. We propose Neural Fourier Transform (NFT), a general framework of learning the latent linear action of the group without assuming explicit knowledge of how the group acts on data. We present the theoretical foundations of NFT and show that the existence of a linear equivariant feature, which has been assumed ubiquitously in equivariance learning, is equivalent to the existence of a group invariant kernel on the dataspace. We also provide experimental results to demonstrate the application of NFT in typical scenarios with varying levels of knowledge about the acting group.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Recent studies have shown that autoencoder-based models can achieve superior performance on anomaly detection tasks due to their excellent ability to fit complex data in an unsupervised manner. In this work, we propose a novel autoencoder-based model, named StackVAE-G that can significantly bring the efficiency and interpretability to multivariate time series anomaly detection. Specifically, we utilize the similarities across the time series channels by the stacking block-wise reconstruction with a weight-sharing scheme to reduce the size of learned models and also relieve the overfitting to unknown noises in the training data. We also leverage a graph learning module to learn a sparse adjacency matrix to explicitly capture the stable interrelation structure among multiple time series channels for the interpretable pattern reconstruction of interrelated channels. Combining these two modules, we introduce the stacking block-wise VAE (variational autoencoder) with GNN (graph neural network) model for multivariate time series anomaly detection. We conduct extensive experiments on three commonly used public datasets, showing that our model achieves comparable (even better) performance with the state-of-the-art modelsand meanwhile requires much less computation and memory cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the adjacency matrix learned by our model accurately captures the interrelation among multiple channels, and can provide valuable information for failure diagnosis applications.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate our beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder), a refinement of the state-of-the-art beta-VAE objective for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the latent variables model is trained using our framework.

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) principle was first proposed by Arjovsky et al. [2019] to address the domain generalization problem by leveraging data heterogeneity from differing experimental conditions. Specifically, IRM seeks to find a data representation under which an optimal classifier remains invariant across all domains. Despite the conceptual appeal of IRM, the effectiveness of the originally proposed invariance penalty has recently been brought into question. In particular, there exists counterexamples for which that invariance penalty can be arbitrarily small for non-invariant data representations. We propose an alternative invariance penalty by revisiting the Gramian matrix of the data representation. We discuss the role of its eigenvalues in the relationship between the risk and the invariance penalty, and demonstrate that it is ill-conditioned for said counterexamples. The proposed approach is guaranteed to recover an invariant representation for linear settings under mild non-degeneracy conditions. Its effectiveness is substantiated by experiments on DomainBed and InvarianceUnitTest, two extensive test beds for domain generalization.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Causal disentanglement seeks a representation of data involving latent variables that relate to one another via a causal model. A representation is identifiable if both the latent model and the transformation from latent to observed variables are unique. In this paper, we study observed variables that are a linear transformation of a linear latent causal model. Data from interventions are necessary for identifiability: if one latent variable is missing an intervention, we show that there exist distinct models that cannot be distinguished. Conversely, we show that a single intervention on each latent variable is sufficient for identifiability. Our proof uses a generalization of the RQ decomposition of a matrix that replaces the usual orthogonal and upper triangular conditions with analogues depending on a partial order on the rows of the matrix, with partial order determined by a latent causal model. We corroborate our theoretical results with a method for causal disentanglement that accurately recovers a latent causal model.

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used in neuroscience to uncover hidden state evolutions from sequential observations, mainly in neural activity recordings. While latent GP models provide a principled and powerful solution in theory, the intractable posterior in non-conjugate settings necessitates approximate inference schemes, which may lack scalability. In this work, we propose cvHM, a general inference framework for latent GP models leveraging Hida-Mat\'ern kernels and conjugate computation variational inference (CVI). With cvHM, we are able to perform variational inference of latent neural trajectories with linear time complexity for arbitrary likelihoods. The reparameterization of stationary kernels using Hida-Mat\'ern GPs helps us connect the latent variable models that encode prior assumptions through dynamical systems to those that encode trajectory assumptions through GPs. In contrast to previous work, we use bidirectional information filtering, leading to a more concise implementation. Furthermore, we employ the Whittle approximate likelihood to achieve highly efficient hyperparameter learning.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Source separation involves the ill-posed problem of retrieving a set of source signals that have been observed through a mixing operator. Solving this problem requires prior knowledge, which is commonly incorporated by imposing regularity conditions on the source signals, or implicitly learned through supervised or unsupervised methods from existing data. While data-driven methods have shown great promise in source separation, they often require large amounts of data, which rarely exists in planetary space missions. To address this challenge, we propose an unsupervised source separation scheme for domains with limited data access that involves solving an optimization problem in the wavelet scattering covariance representation spacex2014an interpretable, low-dimensional representation of stationary processes. We present a real-data example in which we remove transient, thermally-induced microtiltsx2014known as glitchesx2014from data recorded by a seismometer during NASA's InSight mission on Mars. Thanks to the wavelet scattering covariances' ability to capture non-Gaussian properties of stochastic processes, we are able to separate glitches using only a few glitch-free data snippets.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Video anomaly detection models aim to detect anomalies that deviate from what is expected. In open-world scenarios, the expected events may change as requirements change. For example, not wearing a mask is considered abnormal during a flu outbreak but normal otherwise. However, existing methods assume that the definition of anomalies is invariable, and thus are not applicable to the open world. To address this, we propose a novel open-world VAD paradigm with variable definitions, allowing guided detection through user-provided natural language at inference time. This paradigm necessitates establishing a robust mapping from video and textual definition to anomaly score. Therefore, we propose LaGoVAD (Language-guided Open-world VAD), a model that dynamically adapts anomaly definitions through two regularization strategies: diversifying the relative durations of anomalies via dynamic video synthesis, and enhancing feature robustness through contrastive learning with negative mining. Training such adaptable models requires diverse anomaly definitions, but existing datasets typically provide given labels without semantic descriptions. To bridge this gap, we collect PreVAD (Pre-training Video Anomaly Dataset), the largest and most diverse video anomaly dataset to date, featuring 35,279 annotated videos with multi-level category labels and descriptions that explicitly define anomalies. Zero-shot experiments on seven datasets demonstrate SOTA performance. Data and code will be released.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

While the phenomenon of grokking, i.e., delayed generalization, has been studied extensively, it remains an open problem whether there is a mathematical framework that characterizes what kind of features will emerge, how and in which conditions it happens, and is closely related to the gradient dynamics of the training, for complex structured inputs. We propose a novel framework, named Li_2, that captures three key stages for the grokking behavior of 2-layer nonlinear networks: (I) \textbf{L}azy learning, (II) \textbf{i}ndependent feature learning and (III) \textbf{i}nteractive feature learning. At the lazy learning stage, top layer overfits to random hidden representation and the model appears to memorize. Thanks to lazy learning and weight decay, the backpropagated gradient G_F from the top layer now carries information about the target label, with a specific structure that enables each hidden node to learn their representation independently. Interestingly, the independent dynamics follows exactly the gradient ascent of an energy function E, and its local maxima are precisely the emerging features. We study whether these local-optima induced features are generalizable, their representation power, and how they change on sample size, in group arithmetic tasks. When hidden nodes start to interact in the later stage of learning, we provably show how G_F changes to focus on missing features that need to be learned. Our study sheds lights on roles played by key hyperparameters such as weight decay, learning rate and sample sizes in grokking, leads to provable scaling laws of feature emergence, memorization and generalization, and reveals the underlying cause why recent optimizers such as Muon can be effective, from the first principles of gradient dynamics. Our analysis can be extended to multi-layer architectures.

This paper aims to overcome a major obstacle in scaling RL for reasoning with LLMs, namely the collapse of policy entropy. Such phenomenon is consistently observed across vast RL runs without entropy intervention, where the policy entropy dropped sharply at the early training stage, this diminished exploratory ability is always accompanied with the saturation of policy performance. In practice, we establish a transformation equation R=-a*e^H+b between entropy H and downstream performance R. This empirical law strongly indicates that, the policy performance is traded from policy entropy, thus bottlenecked by its exhaustion, and the ceiling is fully predictable H=0, R=-a+b. Our finding necessitates entropy management for continuous exploration toward scaling compute for RL. To this end, we investigate entropy dynamics both theoretically and empirically. Our derivation highlights that, the change in policy entropy is driven by the covariance between action probability and the change in logits, which is proportional to its advantage when using Policy Gradient-like algorithms. Empirical study shows that, the values of covariance term and entropy differences matched exactly, supporting the theoretical conclusion. Moreover, the covariance term stays mostly positive throughout training, further explaining why policy entropy would decrease monotonically. Through understanding the mechanism behind entropy dynamics, we motivate to control entropy by restricting the update of high-covariance tokens. Specifically, we propose two simple yet effective techniques, namely Clip-Cov and KL-Cov, which clip and apply KL penalty to tokens with high covariances respectively. Experiments show that these methods encourage exploration, thus helping policy escape entropy collapse and achieve better downstream performance.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for nonlinear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. We demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

We are born with the ability to learn concepts by comparing diverse observations. This helps us to understand the new world in a compositional manner and facilitates extrapolation, as objects naturally consist of multiple concepts. In this work, we argue that the cognitive mechanism of comparison, fundamental to human learning, is also vital for machines to recover true concepts underlying the data. This offers correctness guarantees for the field of concept learning, which, despite its impressive empirical successes, still lacks general theoretical support. Specifically, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for the identifiability of concepts with multiple classes of observations. We show that with sufficient diversity across classes, hidden concepts can be identified without assuming specific concept types, functional relations, or parametric generative models. Interestingly, even when conditions are not globally satisfied, we can still provide alternative guarantees for as many concepts as possible based on local comparisons, thereby extending the applicability of our theory to more flexible scenarios. Moreover, the hidden structure between classes and concepts can also be identified nonparametrically. We validate our theoretical results in both synthetic and real-world settings.

Detecting the anomaly of human behavior is paramount to timely recognizing endangering situations, such as street fights or elderly falls. However, anomaly detection is complex since anomalous events are rare and because it is an open set recognition task, i.e., what is anomalous at inference has not been observed at training. We propose COSKAD, a novel model that encodes skeletal human motion by a graph convolutional network and learns to COntract SKeletal kinematic embeddings onto a latent hypersphere of minimum volume for Video Anomaly Detection. We propose three latent spaces: the commonly-adopted Euclidean and the novel spherical and hyperbolic. All variants outperform the state-of-the-art on the most recent UBnormal dataset, for which we contribute a human-related version with annotated skeletons. COSKAD sets a new state-of-the-art on the human-related versions of ShanghaiTech Campus and CUHK Avenue, with performance comparable to video-based methods. Source code and dataset will be released upon acceptance.

We study the estimation of a planted signal hidden in a recently introduced nested matrix-tensor model, which is an extension of the classical spiked rank-one tensor model, motivated by multi-view clustering. Prior work has theoretically examined the performance of a tensor-based approach, which relies on finding a best rank-one approximation, a problem known to be computationally hard. A tractable alternative approach consists in computing instead the best rank-one (matrix) approximation of an unfolding of the observed tensor data, but its performance was hitherto unknown. We quantify here the performance gap between these two approaches, in particular by deriving the precise algorithmic threshold of the unfolding approach and demonstrating that it exhibits a BBP-type transition behavior. This work is therefore in line with recent contributions which deepen our understanding of why tensor-based methods surpass matrix-based methods in handling structured tensor data.

We present Transformation Invariance and Covariance Contrast (TiCo) for self-supervised visual representation learning. Similar to other recent self-supervised learning methods, our method is based on maximizing the agreement among embeddings of different distorted versions of the same image, which pushes the encoder to produce transformation invariant representations. To avoid the trivial solution where the encoder generates constant vectors, we regularize the covariance matrix of the embeddings from different images by penalizing low rank solutions. By jointly minimizing the transformation invariance loss and covariance contrast loss, we get an encoder that is able to produce useful representations for downstream tasks. We analyze our method and show that it can be viewed as a variant of MoCo with an implicit memory bank of unlimited size at no extra memory cost. This makes our method perform better than alternative methods when using small batch sizes. TiCo can also be seen as a modification of Barlow Twins. By connecting the contrastive and redundancy-reduction methods together, TiCo gives us new insights into how joint embedding methods work.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series. In this work, we propose to address the time series forecasting problem with generative modeling and propose a bidirectional variational auto-encoder (BVAE) equipped with diffusion, denoise, and disentanglement, namely D3VAE. Specifically, a coupled diffusion probabilistic model is proposed to augment the time series data without increasing the aleatoric uncertainty and implement a more tractable inference process with BVAE. To ensure the generated series move toward the true target, we further propose to adapt and integrate the multiscale denoising score matching into the diffusion process for time series forecasting. In addition, to enhance the interpretability and stability of the prediction, we treat the latent variable in a multivariate manner and disentangle them on top of minimizing total correlation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that D3VAE outperforms competitive algorithms with remarkable margins. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSpatial/tree/main/research/D3VAE.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

The origin of adversarial examples is still inexplicable in research fields, and it arouses arguments from various viewpoints, albeit comprehensive investigations. In this paper, we propose a way of delving into the unexpected vulnerability in adversarially trained networks from a causal perspective, namely adversarial instrumental variable (IV) regression. By deploying it, we estimate the causal relation of adversarial prediction under an unbiased environment dissociated from unknown confounders. Our approach aims to demystify inherent causal features on adversarial examples by leveraging a zero-sum optimization game between a casual feature estimator (i.e., hypothesis model) and worst-case counterfactuals (i.e., test function) disturbing to find causal features. Through extensive analyses, we demonstrate that the estimated causal features are highly related to the correct prediction for adversarial robustness, and the counterfactuals exhibit extreme features significantly deviating from the correct prediction. In addition, we present how to effectively inoculate CAusal FEatures (CAFE) into defense networks for improving adversarial robustness.

We study the relationship between two desiderata of algorithms in statistical inference and machine learning: differential privacy and robustness to adversarial data corruptions. Their conceptual similarity was first observed by Dwork and Lei (STOC 2009), who observed that private algorithms satisfy robustness, and gave a general method for converting robust algorithms to private ones. However, all general methods for transforming robust algorithms into private ones lead to suboptimal error rates. Our work gives the first black-box transformation that converts any adversarially robust algorithm into one that satisfies pure differential privacy. Moreover, we show that for any low-dimensional estimation task, applying our transformation to an optimal robust estimator results in an optimal private estimator. Thus, we conclude that for any low-dimensional task, the optimal error rate for varepsilon-differentially private estimators is essentially the same as the optimal error rate for estimators that are robust to adversarially corrupting 1/varepsilon training samples. We apply our transformation to obtain new optimal private estimators for several high-dimensional tasks, including Gaussian (sparse) linear regression and PCA. Finally, we present an extension of our transformation that leads to approximate differentially private algorithms whose error does not depend on the range of the output space, which is impossible under pure differential privacy.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Causal discovery with latent confounders is an important but challenging task in many scientific areas. Despite the success of some overcomplete independent component analysis (OICA) based methods in certain domains, they are computationally expensive and can easily get stuck into local optima. We notice that interestingly, by making use of higher-order cumulants, there exists a closed-form solution to OICA in specific cases, e.g., when the mixing procedure follows the One-Latent-Component structure. In light of the power of the closed-form solution to OICA corresponding to the One-Latent-Component structure, we formulate a way to estimate the mixing matrix using the higher-order cumulants, and further propose the testable One-Latent-Component condition to identify the latent variables and determine causal orders. By iteratively removing the share identified latent components, we successfully extend the results on the One-Latent-Component structure to the Multi-Latent-Component structure and finally provide a practical and asymptotically correct algorithm to learn the causal structure with latent variables. Experimental results illustrate the asymptotic correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

As the field of representation learning grows, there has been a proliferation of different loss functions to solve different classes of problems. We introduce a single information-theoretic equation that generalizes a large collection of modern loss functions in machine learning. In particular, we introduce a framework that shows that several broad classes of machine learning methods are precisely minimizing an integrated KL divergence between two conditional distributions: the supervisory and learned representations. This viewpoint exposes a hidden information geometry underlying clustering, spectral methods, dimensionality reduction, contrastive learning, and supervised learning. This framework enables the development of new loss functions by combining successful techniques from across the literature. We not only present a wide array of proofs, connecting over 23 different approaches, but we also leverage these theoretical results to create state-of-the-art unsupervised image classifiers that achieve a +8% improvement over the prior state-of-the-art on unsupervised classification on ImageNet-1K. We also demonstrate that I-Con can be used to derive principled debiasing methods which improve contrastive representation learners.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

Understanding generalization in deep neural networks is an active area of research. A promising avenue of exploration has been that of margin measurements: the shortest distance to the decision boundary for a given sample or its representation internal to the network. While margins have been shown to be correlated with the generalization ability of a model when measured at its hidden representations (hidden margins), no such link between large margins and generalization has been established for input margins. We show that while input margins are not generally predictive of generalization, they can be if the search space is appropriately constrained. We develop such a measure based on input margins, which we refer to as `constrained margins'. The predictive power of this new measure is demonstrated on the 'Predicting Generalization in Deep Learning' (PGDL) dataset and contrasted with hidden representation margins. We find that constrained margins achieve highly competitive scores and outperform other margin measurements in general. This provides a novel insight on the relationship between generalization and classification margins, and highlights the importance of considering the data manifold for investigations of generalization in DNNs.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used in time series analysis. However, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, for time series remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. Motivated by this, we raise a critical and practical research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? To answer this, we propose VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to evaluate MLLMs in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). Our approach transforms time series numerical data into the image format and feed these images into various MLLMs, including proprietary models (GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5) and open-source models (LLaVA-NeXT and Qwen2-VL), each with one larger and one smaller variant. In total, VisualTimeAnomaly contains 12.4k time series images spanning 3 scenarios and 3 anomaly granularities with 9 anomaly types across 8 MLLMs. Starting with the univariate case (point- and range-wise anomalies), we extend our evaluation to more practical scenarios, including multivariate and irregular time series scenarios, and variate-wise anomalies. Our study reveals several key insights: 1) MLLMs detect range- and variate-wise anomalies more effectively than point-wise anomalies. 2) MLLMs are highly robust to irregular time series, even with 25% of the data missing. 3) Open-source MLLMs perform comparably to proprietary models in TSAD. While open-source MLLMs excel on univariate time series, proprietary MLLMs demonstrate superior effectiveness on multivariate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to comprehensively investigate MLLMs for TSAD, particularly for multivariate and irregular time series scenarios. We release our dataset and code at https://github.com/mllm-ts/VisualTimeAnomaly to support future research.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Conditional diffusion models are powerful generative models that can leverage various types of conditional information, such as class labels, segmentation masks, or text captions. However, in many real-world scenarios, conditional information may be noisy or unreliable due to human annotation errors or weak alignment. In this paper, we propose the Coherence-Aware Diffusion (CAD), a novel method that integrates coherence in conditional information into diffusion models, allowing them to learn from noisy annotations without discarding data. We assume that each data point has an associated coherence score that reflects the quality of the conditional information. We then condition the diffusion model on both the conditional information and the coherence score. In this way, the model learns to ignore or discount the conditioning when the coherence is low. We show that CAD is theoretically sound and empirically effective on various conditional generation tasks. Moreover, we show that leveraging coherence generates realistic and diverse samples that respect conditional information better than models trained on cleaned datasets where samples with low coherence have been discarded.

We present a unified framework for studying the identifiability of representations learned from simultaneously observed views, such as different data modalities. We allow a partially observed setting in which each view constitutes a nonlinear mixture of a subset of underlying latent variables, which can be causally related. We prove that the information shared across all subsets of any number of views can be learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single encoder per view. We also provide graphical criteria indicating which latent variables can be identified through a simple set of rules, which we refer to as identifiability algebra. Our general framework and theoretical results unify and extend several previous works on multi-view nonlinear ICA, disentanglement, and causal representation learning. We experimentally validate our claims on numerical, image, and multi-modal data sets. Further, we demonstrate that the performance of prior methods is recovered in different special cases of our setup. Overall, we find that access to multiple partial views enables us to identify a more fine-grained representation, under the generally milder assumption of partial observability.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

Optimal Transport (OT) has fueled machine learning (ML) across many domains. When paired data measurements (mu, nu) are coupled to covariates, a challenging conditional distribution learning setting arises. Existing approaches for learning a global transport map parameterized through a potentially unseen context utilize Neural OT and largely rely on Brenier's theorem. Here, we propose a first-of-its-kind quantum computing formulation for amortized optimization of contextualized transportation plans. We exploit a direct link between doubly stochastic matrices and unitary operators thus unravelling a natural connection between OT and quantum computation. We verify our method (QontOT) on synthetic and real data by predicting variations in cell type distributions conditioned on drug dosage. Importantly we conduct a 24-qubit hardware experiment on a task challenging for classical computers and report a performance that cannot be matched with our classical neural OT approach. In sum, this is a first step toward learning to predict contextualized transportation plans through quantum computing.

Datasets often have their intrinsic symmetries, and particular deep-learning models called equivariant or invariant models have been developed to exploit these symmetries. However, if some or all of these symmetries are only approximate, which frequently happens in practice, these models may be suboptimal due to the architectural restrictions imposed on them. We tackle this issue of approximate symmetries in a setup where symmetries are mixed, i.e., they are symmetries of not single but multiple different types and the degree of approximation varies across these types. Instead of proposing a new architectural restriction as in most of the previous approaches, we present a regularizer-based method for building a model for a dataset with mixed approximate symmetries. The key component of our method is what we call equivariance regularizer for a given type of symmetries, which measures how much a model is equivariant with respect to the symmetries of the type. Our method is trained with these regularizers, one per each symmetry type, and the strength of the regularizers is automatically tuned during training, leading to the discovery of the approximation levels of some candidate symmetry types without explicit supervision. Using synthetic function approximation and motion forecasting tasks, we demonstrate that our method achieves better accuracy than prior approaches while discovering the approximate symmetry levels correctly.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.