Daily Papers

Vision Transformer (ViT) has become one of the most prevailing fundamental backbone networks in the computer vision community. Despite the high accuracy, deploying it in real applications raises critical challenges including the high computational cost and inference latency. Recently, the post-training quantization (PTQ) technique has emerged as a promising way to enhance ViT's efficiency. Nevertheless, existing PTQ approaches for ViT suffer from the inflexible quantization on the post-Softmax and post-GELU activations that obey the power-law-like distributions. To address these issues, we propose a novel non-uniform quantizer, dubbed the Adaptive Logarithm AdaLog (AdaLog) quantizer. It optimizes the logarithmic base to accommodate the power-law-like distribution of activations, while simultaneously allowing for hardware-friendly quantization and de-quantization. By employing the bias reparameterization, the AdaLog quantizer is applicable to both the post-Softmax and post-GELU activations. Moreover, we develop an efficient Fast Progressive Combining Search (FPCS) strategy to determine the optimal logarithm base for AdaLog, as well as the scaling factors and zero points for the uniform quantizers. Extensive experimental results on public benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for various ViT-based architectures and vision tasks including classification, object detection, and instance segmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/GoatWu/AdaLog.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

About two million U.S. corporations and partnerships are linked to each other and human investors by about 15 million owner-subsidiary links. Comparable social networks such as corporate board memberships and socially-built systems such as the network of Internet links are "small worlds," meaning a network with a small diameter and link densities with a power-law distribution, but these properties had not yet been measured for the business entity network. This article shows that both inbound links and outbound links display a power-law distribution with a coefficient of concentration estimable to within a generally narrow confidence interval, overall, for subnetworks including only business entities, only for the great connected component of the network, and in subnetworks with edges associated with certain industries, for all years 2009-2021. In contrast to other networks with power-law distributed link densities, the network is mostly a tree, and has a diameter an order of magnitude larger than a small-world network with the same link distribution. The regularity of the power-law distribution indicates that its coefficient can be used as a new, well-defined macroeconomic metric for the concentration of capital flows in an economy. Economists might use it as a new measure of market concentration which is more comprehensive than measures based only on the few biggest firms. Comparing capital link concentrations across countries would facilitate modeling the relationship between business network characteristics and other macroeconomic indicators.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. We set upper limits for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries under power law, broken power law, and free spectral coefficient GW spectrum models. We place a 95\% upper limit on the strain amplitude (at a frequency of yr^{-1}) in the power law model of A_{rm gw} < 1.5times 10^{-15}. For a broken power law model, we place priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana (2013) and McWilliams et al. (2014). We find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 22 and 2.2 to one for the McWilliams and Sesana prior models, respectively. The McWilliams model is essentially ruled out by the data, and the Sesana model is in tension with the data under the assumption of a pure power law. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. We then place the most stringent limits so far on the energy density of relic GWs, Omega_gw(f),h^2 < 4.2 times 10^{-10}, yielding a limit on the Hubble parameter during inflation of H_*=1.6times10^{-2}~m_{Pl}, where m_{Pl} is the Planck mass. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Omega_gw(f), h^2 < 2.2 times 10^{-10}, translates to a conservative limit of Gmu<3.3times 10^{-8} - a factor of 4 better than the joint Planck and high-l CMB data from other experiments.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

According to the generalized Polya theorem, the Gaussian distribution on the real line is characterized by the property of equidistribution of a monomial and a linear form of independent identically distributed random variables. We give a complete description of a-adic solenoids for which an analog of this theorem is true. The proof of the main theorem is reduced to solving some functional equation in the class of continuous positive definite functions on the character group of an a-adic solenoid

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

Power transforms are popular parametric techniques for making data more Gaussian-like, and are widely used as preprocessing steps in statistical analysis and machine learning. However, we find that direct implementations of power transforms suffer from severe numerical instabilities, which can lead to incorrect results or even crashes. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the sources of these instabilities and propose effective remedies. We further extend power transforms to the federated learning setting, addressing both numerical and distributional challenges that arise in this context. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods are both effective and robust, substantially improving stability compared to existing approaches.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

The solar wind is a medium characterized by strong turbulence and significant field fluctuations on various scales. Recent observations have revealed that magnetic turbulence exhibits a self-similar behavior. Similarly, high-resolution measurements of the proton density have shown comparable characteristics, prompting several studies into the multifractal properties of these density fluctuations. In this work, we show that low-resolution observations of the solar wind proton density over time, recorded by various spacecraft at Lagrange point L1, also exhibit non-linear and multifractal structures. The novelty of our study lies in the fact that this is the first systematic analysis of solar wind proton density using low-resolution (hourly) data collected by multiple spacecraft at the L1 Lagrange point over a span of 17 years. Furthermore, we interpret our results within the framework of non-extensive statistical mechanics, which appears to be consistent with the observed nonlinear behavior. Based on the data, we successfully validate the q-triplet predicted by non-extensive statistical theory. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the most rigorous and systematic validation to date of the q-triplet in the solar wind.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise T affects performance as the size of the training set P and the scale of initialization alpha are varied. For gradient descent, alpha is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy'(alphagg1) or instead learns features (alphall1). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: (i) obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the (alpha,T) plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing T or decreasing alpha both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. (ii) Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature T_c where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of P. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both T and P as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set P increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor) between models with and without the signal exceeds a certain threshold, the signal is considered detected. We present a formalism to compute the averaged Bayes factor, incorporating instrumental-noise and SGWB uncertainties. As an example, we consider the case of power-law-shaped SGWB in LISA and generate the corresponding bayesian sensitivity curve. Unlike existing methods in the literature, which typically neglect uncertainties in both the signal and noise, our approach provides a reliable and realistic alternative. This flexible framework opens avenues for more robust stochastic gravitational wave background detection across gravitational-wave experiments.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 211211A and GRB 060614, believed to originate from the merger of compact objects, exhibit similarities to the jetted tidal disruption event (TDE) Sw J1644+57, by showing violent variabilities in the light-curve during the decay phase. Previous studies suggest that such fluctuations in TDE may arise from the fallback of tidal disrupted debris. In this paper, we introduce the fluctuations of the mass distribution {rm d}M/{rm d}E for the debris ejected during the tidal disruption (with energy E) and study their impact on jet power. Turbulence induced by tidal force and the self-gravity of the debris may imprint variabilities in {rm d}M/{rm d}E during fallback. We model these fluctuations with a power density spectrum propto f_{rm E}^{beta}, where f_{rm E} = 1/E and beta is the power-law index. We find that the resulting light curve can preserve the fluctuation characteristics from {rm d}M/{rm d}E. In addition, the observed fluctuations in the light-curves can be reproduced for a given suitable beta. Based on the observations, we find that the value of beta should be around -1.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

The quickly increasing data traffic and the user demand for a full coverage of mobile services anywhere and anytime are leading mobile networking into a future of small cell networks. However, due to the high-density and randomness of small cell networks, there are several technical challenges. In this paper, we investigate two critical issues: best signal quality and mobility management. Under the assumptions that base stations are uniformly distributed in a ring shaped region and that shadowings are lognormal, independent and identically distributed, we prove that when the number of sites in the ring tends to infinity, then (i) the maximum signal strength received at the center of the ring tends in distribution to a Gumbel distribution when properly renormalized, and (ii) it is asymptotically independent of the interference. Using these properties, we derive the distribution of the best signal quality. Furthermore, an optimized random cell scanning scheme is proposed, based on the evaluation of the optimal number of sites to be scanned for maximizing the user data throughput.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

When two different parties use the same learning rule on their own data, how can we test whether the distributions of the two outcomes are similar? In this paper, we study the similarity of outcomes of learning rules through the lens of the Total Variation (TV) distance of distributions. We say that a learning rule is TV indistinguishable if the expected TV distance between the posterior distributions of its outputs, executed on two training data sets drawn independently from the same distribution, is small. We first investigate the learnability of hypothesis classes using TV indistinguishable learners. Our main results are information-theoretic equivalences between TV indistinguishability and existing algorithmic stability notions such as replicability and approximate differential privacy. Then, we provide statistical amplification and boosting algorithms for TV indistinguishable learners.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

Kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) is a score-based discrepancy widely used in goodness-of-fit tests. It can be applied even when the target distribution has an unknown normalising factor, such as in Bayesian analysis. We show theoretically and empirically that the KSD test can suffer from low power when the target and the alternative distributions have the same well-separated modes but differ in mixing proportions. We propose to perturb the observed sample via Markov transition kernels, with respect to which the target distribution is invariant. This allows us to then employ the KSD test on the perturbed sample. We provide numerical evidence that with suitably chosen transition kernels the proposed approach can lead to substantially higher power than the KSD test.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Tweedie distributions are a special case of exponential dispersion models, which are often used in classical statistics as distributions for generalized linear models. Here, we reveal that Tweedie distributions also play key roles in modern deep learning era, leading to a distribution independent self-supervised image denoising formula without clean reference images. Specifically, by combining with the recent Noise2Score self-supervised image denoising approach and the saddle point approximation of Tweedie distribution, we can provide a general closed-form denoising formula that can be used for large classes of noise distributions without ever knowing the underlying noise distribution. Similar to the original Noise2Score, the new approach is composed of two successive steps: score matching using perturbed noisy images, followed by a closed form image denoising formula via distribution-independent Tweedie's formula. This also suggests a systematic algorithm to estimate the noise model and noise parameters for a given noisy image data set. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate noise models and parameters, and provide the state-of-the-art self-supervised image denoising performance in the benchmark dataset and real-world dataset.

In this paper, it is shown that if a sequence of resistance metric spaces equipped with measures converges with respect to the local Gromov-Hausdorff-vague topology, and certain non-explosion and metric-entropy conditions are satisfied, then the associated stochastic processes and their local times also converge. The metric-entropy condition can be checked by applying volume estimates of balls. Whilst similar results have been proved previously, the approach of this article is more widely applicable. Indeed, we recover various known conclusions for scaling limits of some deterministic self-similar fractal graphs, critical Galton-Watson trees, the critical Erdos-R\'enyi random graph and the configuration model (in the latter two cases, we prove for the first time the convergence of the models with respect to the resistance metric and also, for the configuration model, we overcome an error in the existing proof of local time convergence). Moreover, we derive new ones for scaling limits of uniform spanning trees and random recursive fractals. The metric-entropy condition also implies convergence of associated Gaussian processes.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

The instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor Gamma that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift/XRT in GRBs and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau and post-plateau). We expand the analytical formalism of the "Larger-Angle Emission" model previously developed for "Power-Law" outflows to "n-Exponential" outflows (e.g. exponential with n=1 and Gaussian with n=2) and compare their abilities to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows. We assume power-law Gamma-dependences of two spectral characteristics (peak-energy and peak intensity) and find that, unlike Power-Law outflows, n-Exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100. To include all information existing in the Swift/XRT measurements of X-ray aferglows (0.3-10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 keV and 10 keV light-curves using a broken power-law emission spectrum of peak-energy and low-and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak-energy determination is found to be consistent with more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak-energy, and peak-intensity (Gamma (theta), E'_p (theta), i'_p(theta)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black-holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the E'_p (Gamma) and i'_p (Gamma) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

As a technique to bridge logit matching and probability distribution matching, temperature scaling plays a pivotal role in knowledge distillation (KD). Conventionally, temperature scaling is applied to both teacher's logits and student's logits in KD. Motivated by some recent works, in this paper, we drop instead temperature scaling on the student side, and systematically study the resulting variant of KD, dubbed transformed teacher matching (TTM). By reinterpreting temperature scaling as a power transform of probability distribution, we show that in comparison with the original KD, TTM has an inherent R\'enyi entropy term in its objective function, which serves as an extra regularization term. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that thanks to this inherent regularization, TTM leads to trained students with better generalization than the original KD. To further enhance student's capability to match teacher's power transformed probability distribution, we introduce a sample-adaptive weighting coefficient into TTM, yielding a novel distillation approach dubbed weighted TTM (WTTM). It is shown, by comprehensive experiments, that although WTTM is simple, it is effective, improves upon TTM, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zkxufo/TTM.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

We obtain almost sure bounds for the weighted sum sum_{n leq t} f(n){n}, where f(n) is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Specifically, we obtain the bounds predicted by exponentiating the law of the iterated logarithm, giving sharp upper and lower bounds.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

The stellar initial mass function is of great significance for the study of star formation and galactic structure. Observations indicate that the IMF follows a power-law form. This work derived that when the expected number of stars formed from a spherical molecular cloud is much greater than 1, there is a relationship between the slope alpha of the IMF and r^n in the radius-density relation of spherically symmetric gas clouds, given by alpha = 3/(n+3) (Gamma_{IMF} = n/(n+3)). This conclusion is close to the results of numerical simulations and observations, but it is derived from a pure probabilistic model, which may have underlying reasons worth pondering.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

The binary sum-of-digits function s returns the number of ones in the binary expansion of a nonnegative integer. Cusick's Hamming weight conjecture states that, for all integers tgeq 0, the set of nonnegative integers n such that s(n+t)geq s(n) has asymptotic density strictly larger than 1/2. We are concerned with the block-additive function r returning the number of (overlapping) occurrences of the block 11 in the binary expansion of n. The main result of this paper is a central limit-type theorem for the difference r(n+t)-r(n): the corresponding probability function is uniformly close to a Gaussian, where the uniform error tends to 0 as the number of blocks of ones in the binary expansion of t tends to infty.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Relativistic magnetic turbulence has been proposed as a process for producing nonthermal particles in high-energy astrophysics. Particle energization may be contributed by both magnetic reconnection and turbulent fluctuations, but their interplay is poorly understood. It has been suggested that during magnetic reconnection the parallel electric field dominates particle acceleration up to the lower bound of the power-law particle spectrum, but recent studies show that electric fields perpendicular to magnetic field can play an important, if not dominant role. In this study, we carry out 2D fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations of magnetically dominated decaying turbulence in a relativistic pair plasma. For a fixed magnetization parameter sigma_0=20, we find that the injection energy {varepsilon}_{rm inj} converges with increasing domain size to {varepsilon}_{rm inj}simeq 10m_ec^2. In contrast, the power-law index, the cut-off energy, and the power-law extent increase steadily with domain size. We trace a large number of particles and evaluate the contributions of the work done by the parallel (W_parallel) and perpendicular (W_perp) electric fields during both the injection phase and the post-injection phase. We find that during the injection phase, the W_perp contribution increases with domain size, suggesting that it may eventually dominate injection for a sufficiently large domain. In contrast, both components contribute equally during the post-injection phase, insensitive to the domain size. For high energy ({varepsilon}varepsilon_{rm inj}) particles, W_perp dominates the subsequent energization. These findings may improve our understanding of nonthermal particles and their emissions in astrophysical plasmas.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Real-world datasets follow an imbalanced distribution, which poses significant challenges in rare-category object detection. Recent studies tackle this problem by developing re-weighting and re-sampling methods, that utilise the class frequencies of the dataset. However, these techniques focus solely on the frequency statistics and ignore the distribution of the classes in image space, missing important information. In contrast to them, we propose FRActal CALibration (FRACAL): a novel post-calibration method for long-tailed object detection. FRACAL devises a logit adjustment method that utilises the fractal dimension to estimate how uniformly classes are distributed in image space. During inference, it uses the fractal dimension to inversely downweight the probabilities of uniformly spaced class predictions achieving balance in two axes: between frequent and rare categories, and between uniformly spaced and sparsely spaced classes. FRACAL is a post-processing method and it does not require any training, also it can be combined with many off-the-shelf models such as one-stage sigmoid detectors and two-stage instance segmentation models. FRACAL boosts the rare class performance by up to 8.6% and surpasses all previous methods on LVIS dataset, while showing good generalisation to other datasets such as COCO, V3Det and OpenImages. We provide the code at https://github.com/kostas1515/FRACAL.

We present Chandra ACIS-S imaging spectroscopy results of the extended (1.5''- 8'', 300 pc-1600 pc) hard X-ray emission of NGC 5728, the host galaxy of a Compton thick active galactic nucleus (CT AGN). We find spectrally and spatially-resolved features in the Fe Kalpha complex (5.0-7.5 keV), redward and blueward of the neutral Fe line at 6.4 keV in the extended narrow line region bicone. A simple phenomenological fit of a power law plus Gaussians gives a significance of 5.4sigma and 3.7sigma for the red and blue wings, respectively. Fits to a suite of physically consistent models confirm a significance geq3sigma for the red wing. The significance of the blue wing may be diminished by the presence of rest frame highly ionized Fe XXV and Fe XXVI lines (1.4sigma - 3.7sigma range). A detailed investigation of the Chandra ACIS-S point spread function (PSF) and comparison with the observed morphology demonstrates that these red and blue wings are radially extended (~5'', ~1 kpc) along the optical bicone axis. If the wings emission is due solely to redshifted and blueshifted high-velocity neutral Fe Kalpha then the implied line-of-sight velocities are +/- ~0.1c, and their fluxes are consistent with being equal. A symmetric high-velocity outflow is then a viable explanation. This outflow has deprojected velocities ~100 times larger than the outflows detected in optical spectroscopic studies, potentially dominating the kinetic feedback power.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

This study presents the modeling of the gravitational wave (GW) bias parameter by bridging a connection between simulated GW sources and galaxies in low redshift galaxy surveys 2MPZ and WISExSCOS (WISC). We study this connection by creating a mock GW catalog, populating galaxy surveys with binary black holes (BBHs) for different scenarios of the GW host-galaxy probability as a function of the galaxy stellar mass. We probe the observable consequences of this connection by exploring the spatial clustering of the GW sources in terms of the GW bias parameter. We consider a phenomenological broken power law model for the host-galaxy probability function, with a potential turnover M_{K} at high stellar mass (10^{11} M_{odot} in the fiducial model) where the star formation efficiency begins to drop. We vary the parameters of the GW host-galaxy probability function and find that generically the GW bias increases as M_{K} increases (and gets suppressed as M_{K} decreases). The change in the GW bias parameter shows a maximum change of about 30% for different scenarios explored in this work in comparison to the galaxy bias. Future measurements of the GW bias can help constrain M_{K} and the slopes of the host-galaxy probability function and thus offer insights into the underlying astrophysical processes.

We introduce Functional Diffusion Processes (FDPs), which generalize score-based diffusion models to infinite-dimensional function spaces. FDPs require a new mathematical framework to describe the forward and backward dynamics, and several extensions to derive practical training objectives. These include infinite-dimensional versions of Girsanov theorem, in order to be able to compute an ELBO, and of the sampling theorem, in order to guarantee that functional evaluations in a countable set of points are equivalent to infinite-dimensional functions. We use FDPs to build a new breed of generative models in function spaces, which do not require specialized network architectures, and that can work with any kind of continuous data. Our results on real data show that FDPs achieve high-quality image generation, using a simple MLP architecture with orders of magnitude fewer parameters than existing diffusion models.

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

In this paper we consider a particular class of solutions of the Rayleigh-Boltzmann equation, known in the nonlinear setting as homoenergetic solutions, which have the form gleft( x,v,t right) =fleft( v-Lleft( tright)x,tright) where the matrix L(t) describes a shear flow deformation. We began this analysis in [22] where we rigorously proved the existence of a stationary non-equilibrium solution and established the different behaviour of the solutions for small and large values of the shear parameter, for cut-off collision kernels with homogeneity parameter 0leq gamma <1, including Maxwell molecules and hard potentials. In this paper, we concentrate in the case where the deformation term dominates the collision term for large times (hyperbolic-dominated regime). This occurs for collision kernels with gamma < 0 and in particular we focus on gamma in (-1,0). In such a hyperbolic-dominated regime, it appears challenging to provide a clear description of the long-term asymptotics of the solutions. Here we present a formal analysis of the long-time asymptotics for the distribution of velocities and provide the explicit form for the asymptotic profile. Additionally, we discuss the different asymptotic behaviour expected in the case of homogeneity gamma < -1. Furthermore, we provide a probabilistic interpretation describing a stochastic process consisting in a combination of collisions and shear flows. The tagged particle velocity {v(t)}_{tgeq 0} is a Markov process that arises from the combination of free flights in a shear flow along with random jumps caused by collisions.

Finite symmetric groups S_n are essential in fields such as combinatorics, physics, and chemistry. However, learning a probability distribution over S_n poses significant challenges due to its intractable size and discrete nature. In this paper, we introduce SymmetricDiffusers, a novel discrete diffusion model that simplifies the task of learning a complicated distribution over S_n by decomposing it into learning simpler transitions of the reverse diffusion using deep neural networks. We identify the riffle shuffle as an effective forward transition and provide empirical guidelines for selecting the diffusion length based on the theory of random walks on finite groups. Additionally, we propose a generalized Plackett-Luce (PL) distribution for the reverse transition, which is provably more expressive than the PL distribution. We further introduce a theoretically grounded "denoising schedule" to improve sampling and learning efficiency. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performances on solving tasks including sorting 4-digit MNIST images, jigsaw puzzles, and traveling salesman problems. Our code is released at https://github.com/DSL-Lab/SymmetricDiffusers.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

A core sample of 59 unobscured type 1 AGNs with simultaneous XMM-Newton X-ray and UV observations is compiled from archive to probe the nature of soft X-ray excess (SE). In the first paper of this series, our focus centers on scrutinizing the spectral profile of the soft excess. Of the sources, approx 71% (42/59) exhibit powerlaw-like (po-like) soft excess, while approx 29% (17/59) exhibit blackbody-like (bb-like) soft excess. We show a cut-off powerlaw could uniformly characterize both types of soft excesses, with median Ecut of 1.40 keV for po-like and 0.14 keV for bb-like. For the first time, we report a robust and quantitative correlation between the SE profile and SE strength (the ratio of SE luminosity to that of the primary powerlaw continuum in 0.5 - 2.0 keV), indicating that stronger soft excess is more likely to be po-like, or effectively has a higher Ecut. This correlation cannot be explained by ionized disk reflection alone, which produces mostly bb-like soft excess (Ecut sim 0.1 keV) as revealed by relxilllp simulation. Remarkably, we show with simulations that a toy hybrid scenario, where both ionized disk reflection (relxilllp, with all reflection parameters fixed at default values except for ionization of the disk) and warm corona (compTT, with temperature fixed at 1 keV) contribute to the observed soft excess, can successfully reproduce the observed correlation. This highlights the ubiquitous hybrid nature of the soft X-ray excess in AGNs, and underscores the importance of considering both components while fitting the spectra of soft excess.

Deep learning techniques are increasingly applied to scientific problems, where the precision of networks is crucial. Despite being deemed as universal function approximators, neural networks, in practice, struggle to reduce the prediction errors below O(10^{-5}) even with large network size and extended training iterations. To address this issue, we developed the multi-stage neural networks that divides the training process into different stages, with each stage using a new network that is optimized to fit the residue from the previous stage. Across successive stages, the residue magnitudes decreases substantially and follows an inverse power-law relationship with the residue frequencies. The multi-stage neural networks effectively mitigate the spectral biases associated with regular neural networks, enabling them to capture the high frequency feature of target functions. We demonstrate that the prediction error from the multi-stage training for both regression problems and physics-informed neural networks can nearly reach the machine-precision O(10^{-16}) of double-floating point within a finite number of iterations. Such levels of accuracy are rarely attainable using single neural networks alone.

Given alphain(0,1] and pin[1,+infty], we define the space DM^{alpha,p}(mathbb R^n) of L^p vector fields whose alpha-divergence is a finite Radon measure, extending the theory of divergence-measure vector fields to the distributional fractional setting. Our main results concern the absolute continuity properties of the alpha-divergence-measure with respect to the Hausdorff measure and fractional analogues of the Leibniz rule and the Gauss-Green formula. The sharpness of our results is discussed via some explicit examples.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

We propose two approaches to extend the notion of knowledge distillation to Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Gaussian Process Classification (GPC); data-centric and distribution-centric. The data-centric approach resembles most current distillation techniques for machine learning, and refits a model on deterministic predictions from the teacher, while the distribution-centric approach, re-uses the full probabilistic posterior for the next iteration. By analyzing the properties of these approaches, we show that the data-centric approach for GPR closely relates to known results for self-distillation of kernel ridge regression and that the distribution-centric approach for GPR corresponds to ordinary GPR with a very particular choice of hyperparameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the distribution-centric approach for GPC approximately corresponds to data duplication and a particular scaling of the covariance and that the data-centric approach for GPC requires redefining the model from a Binomial likelihood to a continuous Bernoulli likelihood to be well-specified. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed approaches are the first to formulate knowledge distillation specifically for Gaussian Process models.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control typically employs distributions whose support covers the entire action space. In this work, we investigate the colloquially known phenomenon that trained agents often prefer actions at the boundaries of that space. We draw theoretical connections to the emergence of bang-bang behavior in optimal control, and provide extensive empirical evaluation across a variety of recent RL algorithms. We replace the normal Gaussian by a Bernoulli distribution that solely considers the extremes along each action dimension - a bang-bang controller. Surprisingly, this achieves state-of-the-art performance on several continuous control benchmarks - in contrast to robotic hardware, where energy and maintenance cost affect controller choices. Since exploration, learning,and the final solution are entangled in RL, we provide additional imitation learning experiments to reduce the impact of exploration on our analysis. Finally, we show that our observations generalize to environments that aim to model real-world challenges and evaluate factors to mitigate the emergence of bang-bang solutions. Our findings emphasize challenges for benchmarking continuous control algorithms, particularly in light of potential real-world applications.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

It is becoming increasingly clear that many machine learning classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In attempting to explain the origin of adversarial examples, previous studies have typically focused on the fact that neural networks operate on high dimensional data, they overfit, or they are too linear. Here we argue that the origin of adversarial examples is primarily due to an inherent uncertainty that neural networks have about their predictions. We show that the functional form of this uncertainty is independent of architecture, dataset, and training protocol; and depends only on the statistics of the logit differences of the network, which do not change significantly during training. This leads to adversarial error having a universal scaling, as a power-law, with respect to the size of the adversarial perturbation. We show that this universality holds for a broad range of datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10, ImageNet, and random data), models (including state-of-the-art deep networks, linear models, adversarially trained networks, and networks trained on randomly shuffled labels), and attacks (FGSM, step l.l., PGD). Motivated by these results, we study the effects of reducing prediction entropy on adversarial robustness. Finally, we study the effect of network architectures on adversarial sensitivity. To do this, we use neural architecture search with reinforcement learning to find adversarially robust architectures on CIFAR10. Our resulting architecture is more robust to white and black box attacks compared to previous attempts.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

We apply a Gaussian process method to the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 to discover the variable patterns and then to investigate the physical origins of the giant flares. The kernels of stochastically driven damped simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), the damped random-walk (DRW), and Matrm ern-3/2 are respectively used to describe the adaptive-binning gamma-ray light curves of the two flares. Our findings show that both the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 clearly prefer the SHO kernel in the over-damped mode and the Matrm ern-3/2 kernel over the DRW kernel. The resulted SHO and Matrm ern-3/2 power spectral densities (PSDs) are the same for each object, with the index changing from -4 at high frequencies to 0 at low frequencies. The patterns of the two flares are both approaching the critical damping mode with the quality factor Q approx 0.4 (i.e., the damping ratio eta approx 1.25), but with slightly different damping timescales. The characteristic timescale (corresponding to the broken frequency in the PSD) for 3C 454.3 is 2-3 days and 3-5 days for 3C 279. The variable patterns found here suggest that once the system responds to the energy injection disturbance, the release of the energy in the system is finished abruptly. The obtained timescale provides a constraint on the size of energy dissipation region for each source.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Driven by new types of wireless devices and the proliferation of bandwidth-intensive applications, data traffic and the corresponding network load are increasing dramatically. Network densification has been recognized as a promising and efficient way to provide higher network capacity and enhanced coverage. Most prior work on performance analysis of ultra-dense networks (UDNs) has focused on random spatial deployment with idealized singular path loss models and Rayleigh fading. In this paper, we consider a more precise and general model, which incorporates multi-slope path loss and general fading distributions. We derive the tail behavior and scaling laws for the coverage probability and the capacity considering strongest base station association in a Poisson field network. Our analytical results identify the regimes in which the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) either asymptotically grows, saturates, or decreases with increasing network density. We establish general results on when UDNs lead to worse or even zero SINR coverage and capacity, and we provide crisp insights on the fundamental limits of wireless network densification.

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies to compute forces and higher-order derivatives. Furthermore, such densities are often defined on non-trivial topologies. A recent example are Boltzmann Generators for generating 3D-structures of peptides and small proteins. These generative models leverage the space of internal coordinates (dihedrals, angles, and bonds), which is a product of hypertori and compact intervals. In this work, we introduce a class of smooth mixture transformations working on both compact intervals and hypertori. Mixture transformations employ root-finding methods to invert them in practice, which has so far prevented bi-directional flow training. To this end, we show that parameter gradients and forces of such inverses can be computed from forward evaluations via the inverse function theorem. We demonstrate two advantages of such smooth flows: they allow training by force matching to simulation data and can be used as potentials in molecular dynamics simulations.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

This paper concerns a long-range random walk in random environment in dimension 1+1, where the environmental disorder is independent in space but has long-range correlations in time. We prove that two types of rescaled partition functions converge weakly to the Stratonovich solution and the It\^o-Skorohod solution respectively of a fractional stochastic heat equation with multiplicative Gaussian noise which is white in space and colored in time.

Turbulent magnetic fields are to some extent a universal feature in astrophysical phenomena. Charged particles that encounter these turbulence get on average accelerated according to the so-called second-order Fermi process. However, in most astrophysical environments there are additional competing processes, such as different kinds of first-order energy changes and particle escape, that effect the resulting momentum distribution of the particles. In this work we provide to our knowledge the first semi-analytical solution of the isotropic steady-state momentum diffusion equation including continuous and catastrophic momentum changes that can be applied to any arbitrary astrophysical system of interest. Here, we adopt that the assigned magnetic turbulence is constrained on a finite range and the particle flux vanishes beyond these boundaries. Consequently, we show that the so-called pile-up bump -- that has for some special cases long been established -- is a universal feature of stochastic acceleration that emerges around the momentum chi_{rm eq} where acceleration and continuous loss are in equilibrium if the particle's residence time in the system is sufficient at chi_{rm eq}. In general, the impact of continuous and catastrophic momentum changes plays a crucial role in the shape of the steady-state momentum distribution of the accelerated particles, where simplified unbroken power-law approximations are often not adequate.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

We study the robust interpolation problem of arbitrary data distributions supported on a bounded space and propose a two-fold law of robustness. Robust interpolation refers to the problem of interpolating n noisy training data points in R^d by a Lipschitz function. Although this problem has been well understood when the samples are drawn from an isoperimetry distribution, much remains unknown concerning its performance under generic or even the worst-case distributions. We prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n/p) of the interpolating neural network with p parameters on arbitrary data distributions. With this result, we validate the law of robustness conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li, and Nagaraj on two-layer neural networks with polynomial weights. We then extend our result to arbitrary interpolating approximators and prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n^{1/d}) for robust interpolation. Our results demonstrate a two-fold law of robustness: i) we show the potential benefit of overparametrization for smooth data interpolation when n=poly(d), and ii) we disprove the potential existence of an O(1)-Lipschitz robust interpolating function when n=exp(omega(d)).

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5-40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of sim15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a sim3times more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique's proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m, we detect a dipole (m=1) and quadrupole (m=2) at 8-10sigma, as well as evidence for m=4 signal at up to 6sigma, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to the Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Generating novel molecules with higher properties than the training space, namely the out-of-distribution generation, is important for {de~novo} drug design. However, it is not easy for distribution learning-based models, for example diffusion models, to solve this challenge as these methods are designed to fit the distribution of training data as close as possible. In this paper, we show that Bayesian flow network is capable of effortlessly generating high quality out-of-distribution samples that meet several scenarios. We introduce a semi-autoregressive training/sampling method that helps to enhance the model performance and surpass the state-of-the-art models.

The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.