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Jun 18

Mind the Shift: Decoding Monetary Policy Stance from FOMC Statements with Large Language Models

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements are a major source of monetary-policy information, and even subtle changes in their wording can move global financial markets. A central task is therefore to measure the hawkish--dovish stance conveyed in these texts. Existing approaches typically treat stance detection as a standard classification problem, labeling each statement in isolation. However, the interpretation of monetary-policy communication is inherently relative: market reactions depend not only on the tone of a statement, but also on how that tone shifts across meetings. We introduce Delta-Consistent Scoring (DCS), an annotation-free framework that maps frozen large language model (LLM) representations to continuous stance scores by jointly modeling absolute stance and relative inter-meeting shifts. Rather than relying on manual hawkish--dovish labels, DCS uses consecutive meetings as a source of self-supervision. It learns an absolute stance score for each statement and a relative shift score between consecutive statements. A delta-consistency objective encourages changes in absolute scores to align with the relative shifts. This allows DCS to recover a temporally coherent stance trajectory without manual labels. Across four LLM backbones, DCS consistently outperforms supervised probes and LLM-as-judge baselines, achieving up to 71.1% accuracy on sentence-level hawkish--dovish classification. The resulting meeting-level scores are also economically meaningful: they correlate strongly with inflation indicators and are significantly associated with Treasury yield movements. Overall, the results suggest that LLM representations encode monetary-policy signals that can be recovered through relative temporal structure.

FinanceMTEB FinMTEB
·
Mar 15 2

What Media Frames Reveal About Stance: A Dataset and Study about Memes in Climate Change Discourse

Media framing refers to the emphasis on specific aspects of perceived reality to shape how an issue is defined and understood. Its primary purpose is to shape public perceptions often in alignment with the authors' opinions and stances. However, the interaction between stance and media frame remains largely unexplored. In this work, we apply an interdisciplinary approach to conceptualize and computationally explore this interaction with internet memes on climate change. We curate CLIMATEMEMES, the first dataset of climate-change memes annotated with both stance and media frames, inspired by research in communication science. CLIMATEMEMES includes 1,184 memes sourced from 47 subreddits, enabling analysis of frame prominence over time and communities, and sheds light on the framing preferences of different stance holders. We propose two meme understanding tasks: stance detection and media frame detection. We evaluate LLaVA-NeXT and Molmo in various setups, and report the corresponding results on their LLM backbone. Human captions consistently enhance performance. Synthetic captions and human-corrected OCR also help occasionally. Our findings highlight that VLMs perform well on stance, but struggle on frames, where LLMs outperform VLMs. Finally, we analyze VLMs' limitations in handling nuanced frames and stance expressions on climate change internet memes.

  • 7 authors
·
May 22, 2025

TempoVLA: Learning Speed-Controllable Vision-Language-Action Policies

Robot manipulation alternates between low-risk transit phases that call for fast execution and high-risk contact stages that demand slow, precise motion. Yet existing Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) only inherit a single fixed speed from training demonstrations. Prior efforts to accelerate VLAs through model compression, KV-cache reuse, or reinforcement learning only shift the policy from one fixed speed to another, and leave deceleration almost unexplored. We observe that the magnitude of each predicted action already governs how fast the robot moves, opening a direct route to controllable execution speed. We turn this observation into TempoVLA, a single VLA whose execution speed is controlled by an explicit condition. TempoVLA combines two coupled components. (1) A data-side Variable-Speed Trajectory Augmentation (VSTA) that re-times demonstration to any target speed by merging or splitting actions while preserving its motion semantics. (2) A model-side conditioning mechanism that feeds the speed to the policy. Statistics show that VSTA reaches the requested speed with negligible motion error. Experiments in simulation and on real-world tasks demonstrate that TempoVLA achieves flexible speed control in both directions, while VSTA additionally boosts the default 1times performance via better data utilization. Furthermore, by cooperating with a large multimodal model, TempoVLA realizes dynamic speed control, accelerating through low-risk phases and decelerating for high-risk ones.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 3

The Autocorrelation Blind Spot: Why 42% of Turn-Level Findings in LLM Conversation Analysis May Be Spurious

Turn-level metrics are widely used to evaluate properties of multi-turn human-LLM conversations, from safety and sycophancy to dialogue quality. However, consecutive turns within a conversation are not statistically independent -- a fact that virtually all current evaluation pipelines fail to correct for in their statistical inference. We systematically characterize the autocorrelation structure of 66 turn-level metrics across 202 multi-turn conversations (11,639 turn pairs, 5 German-speaking users, 4 LLM platforms) and demonstrate that naive pooled analysis produces severely inflated significance estimates: 42% of associations that appear significant under standard pooled testing fail to survive cluster-robust correction. The inflation varies substantially across categories rather than scaling linearly with autocorrelation: three memoryless families (embedding velocity, directional, differential) aggregate to 14%, while the seven non-memoryless families (thermo-cycle, frame distance, lexical/structural, rolling windows, cumulative, interaction, timestamp) aggregate to 33%, with individual category rates ranging from 0% to 100% depending on per-family effect size. We present a two-stage correction framework combining Chelton (1983) effective degrees of freedom with conversation-level block bootstrap, and validate it on a pre-registered hold-out split where cluster-robust metrics replicate at 57% versus 30% for pooled-only metrics. We provide concrete design principles, a publication checklist, and open-source code for the correction pipeline. A survey of ~30 recent papers at major NLP and AI venues that compute turn-level statistics in LLM evaluations finds that only 4 address temporal dependence at all, and 26 do not correct for it.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 14

Revealing Fine-Grained Values and Opinions in Large Language Models

Uncovering latent values and opinions in large language models (LLMs) can help identify biases and mitigate potential harm. Recently, this has been approached by presenting LLMs with survey questions and quantifying their stances towards morally and politically charged statements. However, the stances generated by LLMs can vary greatly depending on how they are prompted, and there are many ways to argue for or against a given position. In this work, we propose to address this by analysing a large and robust dataset of 156k LLM responses to the 62 propositions of the Political Compass Test (PCT) generated by 6 LLMs using 420 prompt variations. We perform coarse-grained analysis of their generated stances and fine-grained analysis of the plain text justifications for those stances. For fine-grained analysis, we propose to identify tropes in the responses: semantically similar phrases that are recurrent and consistent across different prompts, revealing patterns in the text that a given LLM is prone to produce. We find that demographic features added to prompts significantly affect outcomes on the PCT, reflecting bias, as well as disparities between the results of tests when eliciting closed-form vs. open domain responses. Additionally, patterns in the plain text rationales via tropes show that similar justifications are repeatedly generated across models and prompts even with disparate stances.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2024 1

Timing In stand-up Comedy: Text, Audio, Laughter, Kinesics (TIC-TALK): Pipeline and Database for the Multimodal Study of Comedic Timing

Stand-up comedy, and humor in general, are often studied through their verbal content. Yet live performance relies just as much on embodied presence and audience feedback. We introduce TIC-TALK, a multimodal resource with 5,400+ temporally aligned topic segments capturing language, gesture, and audience response across 90 professionally filmed stand-up comedy specials (2015-2024). The pipeline combines BERTopic for 60 s thematic segmentation with dense sentence embeddings, Whisper-AT for 0.8 s laughter detection, a fine-tuned YOLOv8-cls shot classifier, and YOLOv8s-pose for raw keypoint extraction at 1 fps. Raw 17-joint skeletal coordinates are retained without prior clustering, enabling the computation of continuous kinematic signals-arm spread, kinetic energy, and trunk lean-that serve as proxies for performance dynamics. All streams are aligned by hierarchical temporal containment without resampling, and each topic segment stores its sentence-BERT embedding for downstream similarity and clustering tasks. As a concrete use case, we study laughter dynamics across 24 thematic topics: kinetic energy negatively predicts audience laughter rate (r = -0.75, N = 24), consistent with a stillness-before-punchline pattern; personal and bodily content elicits more laughter than geopolitical themes; and shot close-up proportion correlates positively with laughter (r = +0.28), consistent with reactive montage.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 22

MultiWOZ 2.1: A Consolidated Multi-Domain Dialogue Dataset with State Corrections and State Tracking Baselines

MultiWOZ 2.0 (Budzianowski et al., 2018) is a recently released multi-domain dialogue dataset spanning 7 distinct domains and containing over 10,000 dialogues. Though immensely useful and one of the largest resources of its kind to-date, MultiWOZ 2.0 has a few shortcomings. Firstly, there is substantial noise in the dialogue state annotations and dialogue utterances which negatively impact the performance of state-tracking models. Secondly, follow-up work (Lee et al., 2019) has augmented the original dataset with user dialogue acts. This leads to multiple co-existent versions of the same dataset with minor modifications. In this work we tackle the aforementioned issues by introducing MultiWOZ 2.1. To fix the noisy state annotations, we use crowdsourced workers to re-annotate state and utterances based on the original utterances in the dataset. This correction process results in changes to over 32% of state annotations across 40% of the dialogue turns. In addition, we fix 146 dialogue utterances by canonicalizing slot values in the utterances to the values in the dataset ontology. To address the second problem, we combined the contributions of the follow-up works into MultiWOZ 2.1. Hence, our dataset also includes user dialogue acts as well as multiple slot descriptions per dialogue state slot. We then benchmark a number of state-of-the-art dialogue state tracking models on the MultiWOZ 2.1 dataset and show the joint state tracking performance on the corrected state annotations. We are publicly releasing MultiWOZ 2.1 to the community, hoping that this dataset resource will allow for more effective models across various dialogue subproblems to be built in the future.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 2, 2019

CoMPAS3D: A Dataset and Benchmark for Interactive Motion

Socially interactive humanoid robots must engage with humans through their bodies, adapting in real time to a partner's movement, intent, and abilities. This requires models that understand not just how bodies move, but what movement means in a shared social context. Yet evaluation frameworks for interactive motion generation do not measure whether generated follower motion is legible within a shared movement vocabulary, nor whether it is appropriate to the partner's proficiency level. This gap has two causes: existing frameworks rely on kinematic metrics such as FID and beat alignment that cannot measure either property, and existing datasets lack the move annotations and proficiency variation needed. Salsa is well-suited as an evaluation domain: improvised, dyadic, and governed by a move vocabulary and judging criteria covering timing, musicality, technique, difficulty, partnering, and originality. We present CoMPAS3D, a motion capture dataset of improvised partner salsa paired with an evaluation framework covering kinematic quality, two objective metrics (move legibility and proficiency appropriateness), and six competition-based subjective dimensions. The dataset includes 3 hours of improvisation by 18 dancers spanning beginner, intermediate, and professional levels, with over 2,800 expert-annotated segments covering move types, errors, and stylistic elements. We define three benchmarks: move classification (analogous to transcription), proficiency estimation (fluency assessment), and follower generation (dialogue response). Fine-tuned vision-language models perform strongly on objective metrics applied to ground-truth motion sequences. Applied to Duolando and InterGen, the metrics reveal failures that kinematic metrics miss. Human evaluations confirm the gap between generated and ground-truth motion. CoMPAS3D, annotations, benchmark code, and baseline results are publicly available.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 1

Who Flips? Self- and Cross-Model Counterarguments Reveal Answer Instability in LLMs

Standard accuracy benchmarks are designed to test how closely large language models (LLMs) approach correct answers, but are not suitable for testing whether LLMs stick with a correct answer when that answer is challenged by a plausible counter-argument. We introduce a controlled protocol for evaluating answer stability: after a model answers a multiple-choice question correctly, we challenge the model's answer with a coherent argument for an incorrect option and measure whether the model flips. The setup a) isolates argumentative content from overt social pressure and b) varies argument length, self-attribution, and cross-model source. Across seven frontier models and 57 MMLU subjects, flip rates range from 17.5% to 97.3%, revealing large differences in stability that are not captured by accuracy metrics alone. We find that self-attribution consistently increases flip rates (mean +7.1pp, up to +18.7pp). Also, pooling wrong-answer arguments across models and selecting the most effective one per question yields stronger adversarial challenges than relying on any single source model. We further construct MaxFlip, a curated challenge set that amplifies flips by up to +23.6pp over standard self-generated challenges. We release the protocol, challenge records, and MaxFlip to support stability evaluation alongside standard accuracy benchmarks. Materials are available at https://github.com/nafisenik/WhoFlips and https://hf.co/datasets/nafisehNik/WhoFlips.

  • 4 authors
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Jun 13 1

Teller: Real-Time Streaming Audio-Driven Portrait Animation with Autoregressive Motion Generation

In this work, we introduce the first autoregressive framework for real-time, audio-driven portrait animation, a.k.a, talking head. Beyond the challenge of lengthy animation times, a critical challenge in realistic talking head generation lies in preserving the natural movement of diverse body parts. To this end, we propose Teller, the first streaming audio-driven protrait animation framework with autoregressive motion generation. Specifically, Teller first decomposes facial and body detail animation into two components: Facial Motion Latent Generation (FMLG) based on an autoregressive transfromer, and movement authenticity refinement using a Efficient Temporal Module (ETM).Concretely, FMLG employs a Residual VQ model to map the facial motion latent from the implicit keypoint-based model into discrete motion tokens, which are then temporally sliced with audio embeddings. This enables the AR tranformer to learn real-time, stream-based mappings from audio to motion. Furthermore, Teller incorporate ETM to capture finer motion details. This module ensures the physical consistency of body parts and accessories, such as neck muscles and earrings, improving the realism of these movements. Teller is designed to be efficient, surpassing the inference speed of diffusion-based models (Hallo 20.93s vs. Teller 0.92s for one second video generation), and achieves a real-time streaming performance of up to 25 FPS. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms recent audio-driven portrait animation models, especially in small movements, as validated by human evaluations with a significant margin in quality and realism.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 24, 2025

Mapping Geopolitical Bias in 11 Large Language Models: A Bilingual, Dual-Framing Analysis of U.S.-China Tensions

This study systematically analyzes geopolitical bias across 11 prominent Large Language Models (LLMs) by examining their responses to seven critical topics in U.S.-China relations. Utilizing a bilingual (English and Chinese) and dual-framing (affirmative and reverse) methodology, we generated 19,712 prompts designed to detect ideological leanings in model outputs. Responses were quantitatively assessed on a normalized scale from -2 (strongly Pro-China) to +2 (strongly Pro-U.S.) and categorized according to stance, neutrality, and refusal rates. The findings demonstrate significant and consistent ideological alignments correlated with the LLMs' geographic origins; U.S.-based models predominantly favored Pro-U.S. stances, while Chinese-origin models exhibited pronounced Pro-China biases. Notably, language and prompt framing substantially influenced model responses, with several LLMs exhibiting stance reversals based on prompt polarity or linguistic context. Additionally, we introduced comprehensive metrics to evaluate response consistency across languages and framing conditions, identifying variability and vulnerabilities in model behaviors. These results offer practical insights that can guide organizations and individuals in selecting LLMs best aligned with their operational priorities and geopolitical considerations, underscoring the importance of careful model evaluation in politically sensitive applications. Furthermore, the research highlights specific prompt structures and linguistic variations that can strategically trigger distinct responses from models, revealing methods for effectively navigating and influencing LLM outputs.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 30, 2025

Sycophancy as Material Failure under Pushback Loading: A Multi-Axis Characterization Across Three Loading Cases and up to Seventeen Material Charges

Sycophancy in LLMs is documented across 70+ papers, but expert agreement on construct boundaries remains low (ICC=.184; Ye et al., 2026). The construct fragments because behavioral classification depends on which surface form is privileged. We adopt a materials-science framing: conversation as test specimen under load, LLM-model as material charge, pushback as progressive load, stance-flip as material failure. We characterize this failure across three loading cases (debate n=1000; false-presuppositions n=3400; ethical-setting n=3400; 10-17 material charges per case; 7800 specimens total) using 14 turn-level axis-measurements spanning velocity, damage accumulation, frame-drift, brittleness, and direction stability, plus three speaker-resolved axes from an independent pipeline. The measurements are Hooke-coupled (σ= E cdot varepsilon analog) and reproduce across loading cases with effects up to |r_{rb}| = 0.35 on debate; the sign structure adds a second pattern: the ethical-setting case inverts the velocity and accumulation blocks. Variance composition partitions into two profiles: debate is charge-dominated (brittle-fracture-like: the material grade decides), false-presuppositions and ethical-setting are topic-dominated (creep-like: the load decides); the ratios (2.03 vs 0.13/0.17) are estimator-dependent, for debate even in direction. Cross-judge reliability (GPT-4o vs Haiku 4.5) shows debate scoring is judge-robust (Cohen's κ= 0.88) while false-presupposition scoring is judge-sensitive (κ= 0.36) -- a caveat single-judge benchmarks must report. This is the methodological move Ye et al.'s diagnosis calls for: a multi-axis characterization that does not depend on which surface form of the construct one privileges.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 14

Discourse Diversity in Multi-Turn Empathic Dialogue

Large language models (LLMs) produce responses rated as highly empathic in single-turn settings (Ayers et al., 2023; Lee et al., 2024), yet they are also known to be formulaic generators that reuse the same lexical patterns, syntactic templates, and discourse structures across tasks (Jiang et al., 2025; Shaib et al., 2024; Namuduri et al., 2025). Less attention has been paid to whether this formulaicity extends to the level of discourse moves, i.e., what a response does for the person it is addressing. This question is especially consequential for empathic dialogue, where effective support demands not just a kind response at one moment but varied strategies as a conversation unfolds (Stiles et al., 1998). Indeed, prior work shows that LLMs reuse the same tactic sequences more than human supporters in single-turn settings (Gueorguieva et al., 2026). We extend this analysis to multi-turn conversations and find that the rigidity compounds: once a tactic appears in a supporter turn, LLMs reuse it in the next at nearly double the rate of humans (0.50-0.56 vs. 0.27). This pattern holds across LLMs serving as supporters in real emotional support conversations, and is invisible to standard similarity metrics. To address this gap, we introduce MINT (Multi-turn Inter-tactic Novelty Training), the first reinforcement learning framework to optimize discourse move diversity across multi-turn empathic dialogue. The best MINT variant combines an empathy quality reward with a cross-turn tactic novelty signal, improving aggregate empathy by 25.3% over vanilla across 1.7B and 4B models while reducing cross-turn discourse move repetition by 26.3% on the 4B model, surpassing all baselines including quality-only and token-level diversity methods on both measures. These results suggest that what current models lack is not empathy itself, but the ability to vary their discourse moves across a conversation.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 13

FinePhys: Fine-grained Human Action Generation by Explicitly Incorporating Physical Laws for Effective Skeletal Guidance

Despite significant advances in video generation, synthesizing physically plausible human actions remains a persistent challenge, particularly in modeling fine-grained semantics and complex temporal dynamics. For instance, generating gymnastics routines such as "switch leap with 0.5 turn" poses substantial difficulties for current methods, often yielding unsatisfactory results. To bridge this gap, we propose FinePhys, a Fine-grained human action generation framework that incorporates Physics to obtain effective skeletal guidance. Specifically, FinePhys first estimates 2D poses in an online manner and then performs 2D-to-3D dimension lifting via in-context learning. To mitigate the instability and limited interpretability of purely data-driven 3D poses, we further introduce a physics-based motion re-estimation module governed by Euler-Lagrange equations, calculating joint accelerations via bidirectional temporal updating. The physically predicted 3D poses are then fused with data-driven ones, offering multi-scale 2D heatmap guidance for the diffusion process. Evaluated on three fine-grained action subsets from FineGym (FX-JUMP, FX-TURN, and FX-SALTO), FinePhys significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Comprehensive qualitative results further demonstrate FinePhys's ability to generate more natural and plausible fine-grained human actions.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19, 2025 1