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SubscribeSkyScenes: A Synthetic Dataset for Aerial Scene Understanding
Real-world aerial scene understanding is limited by a lack of datasets that contain densely annotated images curated under a diverse set of conditions. Due to inherent challenges in obtaining such images in controlled real-world settings, we present SkyScenes, a synthetic dataset of densely annotated aerial images captured from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) perspectives. We carefully curate SkyScenes images from CARLA to comprehensively capture diversity across layout (urban and rural maps), weather conditions, times of day, pitch angles and altitudes with corresponding semantic, instance and depth annotations. Through our experiments using SkyScenes, we show that (1) Models trained on SkyScenes generalize well to different real-world scenarios, (2) augmenting training on real images with SkyScenes data can improve real-world performance, (3) controlled variations in SkyScenes can offer insights into how models respond to changes in viewpoint conditions, and (4) incorporating additional sensor modalities (depth) can improve aerial scene understanding.
SAGA: Semantic-Aware Gray color Augmentation for Visible-to-Thermal Domain Adaptation across Multi-View Drone and Ground-Based Vision Systems
Domain-adaptive thermal object detection plays a key role in facilitating visible (RGB)-to-thermal (IR) adaptation by reducing the need for co-registered image pairs and minimizing reliance on large annotated IR datasets. However, inherent limitations of IR images, such as the lack of color and texture cues, pose challenges for RGB-trained models, leading to increased false positives and poor-quality pseudo-labels. To address this, we propose Semantic-Aware Gray color Augmentation (SAGA), a novel strategy for mitigating color bias and bridging the domain gap by extracting object-level features relevant to IR images. Additionally, to validate the proposed SAGA for drone imagery, we introduce the IndraEye, a multi-sensor (RGB-IR) dataset designed for diverse applications. The dataset contains 5,612 images with 145,666 instances, captured from diverse angles, altitudes, backgrounds, and times of day, offering valuable opportunities for multimodal learning, domain adaptation for object detection and segmentation, and exploration of sensor-specific strengths and weaknesses. IndraEye aims to enhance the development of more robust and accurate aerial perception systems, especially in challenging environments. Experimental results show that SAGA significantly improves RGB-to-IR adaptation for autonomous driving and IndraEye dataset, achieving consistent performance gains of +0.4% to +7.6% (mAP) when integrated with state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques. The dataset and codes are available at https://github.com/airliisc/IndraEye.
The Low Mass Ratio Overcontact Binary GV Leonis and Its Circumbinary Companion
Photometric and spectroscopic observations of GV Leo were performed from 2017 to 2024. The light curves show a flat bottom at the primary eclipse and the conventional O'Connell effect. The echelle spectra reveal that the effective temperature and rotation velocity of the more massive secondary are T_{rm eff,2} = 5220pm120 K and v_2 sin i = 223pm40 km s^{-1}, respectively. Our binary modeling indicates that the program target is a W-subclass contact binary with a mass ratio of q = 5.48, an inclination angle of i = 81^circ.68, a temperature difference of (T_{rm eff,1}-T_{rm eff,2}) = 154 K, and a filling factor of f = 36 \%. The light asymmetries were reasonably modeled by a dark starspot on the secondary's photosphere. Including our 26 minimum epochs, 84 times of minimum light were used to investigate the orbital period of the system. We found that the eclipse times of GV Leo have varied by a sinusoid with a period of 14.9 years and a semi-amplitude of 0.0076 days superimposed on a downward parabola. The periodic modulation is interpreted as a light time effect produced by an unseen outer tertiary with a minimum mass of 0.26 M_odot, while the parabolic component is thought to be a combination of mass transfer (secondary to primary) and angular momentum loss driven by magnetic braking. The circumbinary tertiary would have caused the eclipsing pair of GV Leo to evolve into its current short-period contact state by removing angular momentum from the primordial widish binary.
Self-supervised Monocular Depth Estimation: Let's Talk About The Weather
Current, self-supervised depth estimation architectures rely on clear and sunny weather scenes to train deep neural networks. However, in many locations, this assumption is too strong. For example in the UK (2021), 149 days consisted of rain. For these architectures to be effective in real-world applications, we must create models that can generalise to all weather conditions, times of the day and image qualities. Using a combination of computer graphics and generative models, one can augment existing sunny-weather data in a variety of ways that simulate adverse weather effects. While it is tempting to use such data augmentations for self-supervised depth, in the past this was shown to degrade performance instead of improving it. In this paper, we put forward a method that uses augmentations to remedy this problem. By exploiting the correspondence between unaugmented and augmented data we introduce a pseudo-supervised loss for both depth and pose estimation. This brings back some of the benefits of supervised learning while still not requiring any labels. We also make a series of practical recommendations which collectively offer a reliable, efficient framework for weather-related augmentation of self-supervised depth from monocular video. We present extensive testing to show that our method, Robust-Depth, achieves SotA performance on the KITTI dataset while significantly surpassing SotA on challenging, adverse condition data such as DrivingStereo, Foggy CityScape and NuScenes-Night. The project website can be found here https://kieran514.github.io/Robust-Depth-Project/.
IndraEye: Infrared Electro-Optical UAV-based Perception Dataset for Robust Downstream Tasks
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown exceptional performance when trained on well-illuminated images captured by Electro-Optical (EO) cameras, which provide rich texture details. However, in critical applications like aerial perception, it is essential for DNNs to maintain consistent reliability across all conditions, including low-light scenarios where EO cameras often struggle to capture sufficient detail. Additionally, UAV-based aerial object detection faces significant challenges due to scale variability from varying altitudes and slant angles, adding another layer of complexity. Existing methods typically address only illumination changes or style variations as domain shifts, but in aerial perception, correlation shifts also impact DNN performance. In this paper, we introduce the IndraEye dataset, a multi-sensor (EO-IR) dataset designed for various tasks. It includes 5,612 images with 145,666 instances, encompassing multiple viewing angles, altitudes, seven backgrounds, and different times of the day across the Indian subcontinent. The dataset opens up several research opportunities, such as multimodal learning, domain adaptation for object detection and segmentation, and exploration of sensor-specific strengths and weaknesses. IndraEye aims to advance the field by supporting the development of more robust and accurate aerial perception systems, particularly in challenging conditions. IndraEye dataset is benchmarked with object detection and semantic segmentation tasks. Dataset and source codes are available at https://bit.ly/indraeye.
Efficient fine-tuning of 37-level GraphCast with the Canadian global deterministic analysis
This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.
Continuous Invariance Learning
Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.
MonoByte: A Pool of Monolingual Byte-level Language Models
The zero-shot cross-lingual ability of models pretrained on multilingual and even monolingual corpora has spurred many hypotheses to explain this intriguing empirical result. However, due to the costs of pretraining, most research uses public models whose pretraining methodology, such as the choice of tokenization, corpus size, and computational budget, might differ drastically. When researchers pretrain their own models, they often do so under a constrained budget, and the resulting models might underperform significantly compared to SOTA models. These experimental differences led to various inconsistent conclusions about the nature of the cross-lingual ability of these models. To help further research on the topic, we released 10 monolingual byte-level models rigorously pretrained under the same configuration with a large compute budget (equivalent to 420 days on a V100) and corpora that are 4 times larger than the original BERT's. Because they are tokenizer-free, the problem of unseen token embeddings is eliminated, thus allowing researchers to try a wider range of cross-lingual experiments in languages with different scripts. Additionally, we release two models pretrained on non-natural language texts that can be used in sanity-check experiments. Experiments on QA and NLI tasks show that our monolingual models achieve competitive performance to the multilingual one, and hence can be served to strengthen our understanding of cross-lingual transferability in language models.
Qwen2.5 Technical Report
In this report, we introduce Qwen2.5, a comprehensive series of large language models (LLMs) designed to meet diverse needs. Compared to previous iterations, Qwen 2.5 has been significantly improved during both the pre-training and post-training stages. In terms of pre-training, we have scaled the high-quality pre-training datasets from the previous 7 trillion tokens to 18 trillion tokens. This provides a strong foundation for common sense, expert knowledge, and reasoning capabilities. In terms of post-training, we implement intricate supervised finetuning with over 1 million samples, as well as multistage reinforcement learning. Post-training techniques enhance human preference, and notably improve long text generation, structural data analysis, and instruction following. To handle diverse and varied use cases effectively, we present Qwen2.5 LLM series in rich sizes. Open-weight offerings include base and instruction-tuned models, with quantized versions available. In addition, for hosted solutions, the proprietary models currently include two mixture-of-experts (MoE) variants: Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus, both available from Alibaba Cloud Model Studio. Qwen2.5 has demonstrated top-tier performance on a wide range of benchmarks evaluating language understanding, reasoning, mathematics, coding, human preference alignment, etc. Specifically, the open-weight flagship Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct outperforms a number of open and proprietary models and demonstrates competitive performance to the state-of-the-art open-weight model, Llama-3-405B-Instruct, which is around 5 times larger. Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus offer superior cost-effectiveness while performing competitively against GPT-4o-mini and GPT-4o respectively. Additionally, as the foundation, Qwen2.5 models have been instrumental in training specialized models such as Qwen2.5-Math, Qwen2.5-Coder, QwQ, and multimodal models.
Ford Multi-AV Seasonal Dataset
This paper presents a challenging multi-agent seasonal dataset collected by a fleet of Ford autonomous vehicles at different days and times during 2017-18. The vehicles traversed an average route of 66 km in Michigan that included a mix of driving scenarios such as the Detroit Airport, freeways, city-centers, university campus and suburban neighbourhoods, etc. Each vehicle used in this data collection is a Ford Fusion outfitted with an Applanix POS-LV GNSS system, four HDL-32E Velodyne 3D-lidar scanners, 6 Point Grey 1.3 MP Cameras arranged on the rooftop for 360-degree coverage and 1 Pointgrey 5 MP camera mounted behind the windshield for the forward field of view. We present the seasonal variation in weather, lighting, construction and traffic conditions experienced in dynamic urban environments. This dataset can help design robust algorithms for autonomous vehicles and multi-agent systems. Each log in the dataset is time-stamped and contains raw data from all the sensors, calibration values, pose trajectory, ground truth pose, and 3D maps. All data is available in Rosbag format that can be visualized, modified and applied using the open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We also provide the output of state-of-the-art reflectivity-based localization for bench-marking purposes. The dataset can be freely downloaded at our website.
Neural Architecture Search via Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit
Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has gained significant popularity as an effective tool for designing high performance deep neural networks (DNNs). NAS can be performed via policy gradient, evolutionary algorithms, differentiable architecture search or tree-search methods. While significant progress has been made for both policy gradient and differentiable architecture search, tree-search methods have so far failed to achieve comparable accuracy or search efficiency. In this paper, we formulate NAS as a Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) problem (CMAB-NAS). This allows the decomposition of a large search space into smaller blocks where tree-search methods can be applied more effectively and efficiently. We further leverage a tree-based method called Nested Monte-Carlo Search to tackle the CMAB-NAS problem. On CIFAR-10, our approach discovers a cell structure that achieves a low error rate that is comparable to the state-of-the-art, using only 0.58 GPU days, which is 20 times faster than current tree-search methods. Moreover, the discovered structure transfers well to large-scale datasets such as ImageNet.
What time is it? Temporal Analysis of Novels
Recognizing the flow of time in a story is a crucial aspect of understanding it. Prior work related to time has primarily focused on identifying temporal expressions or relative sequencing of events, but here we propose computationally annotating each line of a book with wall clock times, even in the absence of explicit time-descriptive phrases. To do so, we construct a data set of hourly time phrases from 52,183 fictional books. We then construct a time-of-day classification model that achieves an average error of 2.27 hours. Furthermore, we show that by analyzing a book in whole using dynamic programming of breakpoints, we can roughly partition a book into segments that each correspond to a particular time-of-day. This approach improves upon baselines by over two hours. Finally, we apply our model to a corpus of literature categorized by different periods in history, to show interesting trends of hourly activity throughout the past. Among several observations we find that the fraction of events taking place past 10 P.M jumps past 1880 - coincident with the advent of the electric light bulb and city lights.
MABe22: A Multi-Species Multi-Task Benchmark for Learned Representations of Behavior
We introduce MABe22, a large-scale, multi-agent video and trajectory benchmark to assess the quality of learned behavior representations. This dataset is collected from a variety of biology experiments, and includes triplets of interacting mice (4.7 million frames video+pose tracking data, 10 million frames pose only), symbiotic beetle-ant interactions (10 million frames video data), and groups of interacting flies (4.4 million frames of pose tracking data). Accompanying these data, we introduce a panel of real-life downstream analysis tasks to assess the quality of learned representations by evaluating how well they preserve information about the experimental conditions (e.g. strain, time of day, optogenetic stimulation) and animal behavior. We test multiple state-of-the-art self-supervised video and trajectory representation learning methods to demonstrate the use of our benchmark, revealing that methods developed using human action datasets do not fully translate to animal datasets. We hope that our benchmark and dataset encourage a broader exploration of behavior representation learning methods across species and settings.
Weatherproofing Retrieval for Localization with Generative AI and Geometric Consistency
State-of-the-art visual localization approaches generally rely on a first image retrieval step whose role is crucial. Yet, retrieval often struggles when facing varying conditions, due to e.g. weather or time of day, with dramatic consequences on the visual localization accuracy. In this paper, we improve this retrieval step and tailor it to the final localization task. Among the several changes we advocate for, we propose to synthesize variants of the training set images, obtained from generative text-to-image models, in order to automatically expand the training set towards a number of nameable variations that particularly hurt visual localization. After expanding the training set, we propose a training approach that leverages the specificities and the underlying geometry of this mix of real and synthetic images. We experimentally show that those changes translate into large improvements for the most challenging visual localization datasets. Project page: https://europe.naverlabs.com/ret4loc
Hallucinated Neural Radiance Fields in the Wild
Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) has recently gained popularity for its impressive novel view synthesis ability. This paper studies the problem of hallucinated NeRF: i.e., recovering a realistic NeRF at a different time of day from a group of tourism images. Existing solutions adopt NeRF with a controllable appearance embedding to render novel views under various conditions, but they cannot render view-consistent images with an unseen appearance. To solve this problem, we present an end-to-end framework for constructing a hallucinated NeRF, dubbed as Ha-NeRF. Specifically, we propose an appearance hallucination module to handle time-varying appearances and transfer them to novel views. Considering the complex occlusions of tourism images, we introduce an anti-occlusion module to decompose the static subjects for visibility accurately. Experimental results on synthetic data and real tourism photo collections demonstrate that our method can hallucinate the desired appearances and render occlusion-free images from different views. The project and supplementary materials are available at https://rover-xingyu.github.io/Ha-NeRF/.
FOCUS: Familiar Objects in Common and Uncommon Settings
Standard training datasets for deep learning often contain objects in common settings (e.g., "a horse on grass" or "a ship in water") since they are usually collected by randomly scraping the web. Uncommon and rare settings (e.g., "a plane on water", "a car in snowy weather") are thus severely under-represented in the training data. This can lead to an undesirable bias in model predictions towards common settings and create a false sense of accuracy. In this paper, we introduce FOCUS (Familiar Objects in Common and Uncommon Settings), a dataset for stress-testing the generalization power of deep image classifiers. By leveraging the power of modern search engines, we deliberately gather data containing objects in common and uncommon settings in a wide range of locations, weather conditions, and time of day. We present a detailed analysis of the performance of various popular image classifiers on our dataset and demonstrate a clear drop in performance when classifying images in uncommon settings. By analyzing deep features of these models, we show that such errors can be due to the use of spurious features in model predictions. We believe that our dataset will aid researchers in understanding the inability of deep models to generalize well to uncommon settings and drive future work on improving their distributional robustness.
Learning Continuous 3D Words for Text-to-Image Generation
Current controls over diffusion models (e.g., through text or ControlNet) for image generation fall short in recognizing abstract, continuous attributes like illumination direction or non-rigid shape change. In this paper, we present an approach for allowing users of text-to-image models to have fine-grained control of several attributes in an image. We do this by engineering special sets of input tokens that can be transformed in a continuous manner -- we call them Continuous 3D Words. These attributes can, for example, be represented as sliders and applied jointly with text prompts for fine-grained control over image generation. Given only a single mesh and a rendering engine, we show that our approach can be adopted to provide continuous user control over several 3D-aware attributes, including time-of-day illumination, bird wing orientation, dollyzoom effect, and object poses. Our method is capable of conditioning image creation with multiple Continuous 3D Words and text descriptions simultaneously while adding no overhead to the generative process. Project Page: https://ttchengab.github.io/continuous_3d_words
Next Day Wildfire Spread: A Machine Learning Data Set to Predict Wildfire Spreading from Remote-Sensing Data
Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.
METEOR:A Dense, Heterogeneous, and Unstructured Traffic Dataset With Rare Behaviors
We present a new traffic dataset, METEOR, which captures traffic patterns and multi-agent driving behaviors in unstructured scenarios. METEOR consists of more than 1000 one-minute videos, over 2 million annotated frames with bounding boxes and GPS trajectories for 16 unique agent categories, and more than 13 million bounding boxes for traffic agents. METEOR is a dataset for rare and interesting, multi-agent driving behaviors that are grouped into traffic violations, atypical interactions, and diverse scenarios. Every video in METEOR is tagged using a diverse range of factors corresponding to weather, time of the day, road conditions, and traffic density. We use METEOR to benchmark perception methods for object detection and multi-agent behavior prediction. Our key finding is that state-of-the-art models for object detection and behavior prediction, which otherwise succeed on existing datasets such as Waymo, fail on the METEOR dataset. METEOR marks the first step towards the development of more sophisticated perception models for dense, heterogeneous, and unstructured scenarios.
Advance Real-time Detection of Traffic Incidents in Highways using Vehicle Trajectory Data
A significant number of traffic crashes are secondary crashes that occur because of an earlier incident on the road. Thus, early detection of traffic incidents is crucial for road users from safety perspectives with a potential to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. The wide availability of GPS devices now-a-days gives an opportunity of tracking and recording vehicle trajectories. The objective of this study is to use vehicle trajectory data for advance real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways using machine learning-based algorithms. The study uses three days of unevenly sequenced vehicle trajectory data and traffic incident data on I-10, one of the most crash-prone highways in Louisiana. Vehicle trajectories are converted to trajectories based on virtual detector locations to maintain spatial uniformity as well as to generate historical traffic data for machine learning algorithms. Trips matched with traffic incidents on the way are separated and along with other trips with similar spatial attributes are used to build a database for modeling. Multiple machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Artificial Neural Network models are used to detect a trajectory that is likely to face an incident in the downstream road section. Results suggest that the Random Forest model achieves the best performance for predicting an incident with reasonable recall value and discrimination capability.
Teams of LLM Agents can Exploit Zero-Day Vulnerabilities
LLM agents have become increasingly sophisticated, especially in the realm of cybersecurity. Researchers have shown that LLM agents can exploit real-world vulnerabilities when given a description of the vulnerability and toy capture-the-flag problems. However, these agents still perform poorly on real-world vulnerabilities that are unknown to the agent ahead of time (zero-day vulnerabilities). In this work, we show that teams of LLM agents can exploit real-world, zero-day vulnerabilities. Prior agents struggle with exploring many different vulnerabilities and long-range planning when used alone. To resolve this, we introduce HPTSA, a system of agents with a planning agent that can launch subagents. The planning agent explores the system and determines which subagents to call, resolving long-term planning issues when trying different vulnerabilities. We construct a benchmark of 15 real-world vulnerabilities and show that our team of agents improve over prior work by up to 4.5times.
LatentEvolve: Self-Evolving Test-Time Scaling in Latent Space
Test-time Scaling (TTS) has been demonstrated to significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) during the inference phase without altering model parameters. However, existing TTS methods are largely independent, implying that LLMs have not yet evolved to progressively learn how to scale more effectively. With the objective of evolving LLMs to learn ``how to scale test-time computation,'' we propose LatentEvolve, a self-evolving latent TTS framework inspired by the complementary learning system (CLS) theory. Analogous to the human brain's dual system of a fast-recall hippocampus and a slow-consolidating neocortex, LatentEvolve comprises two evolutionary components: daytime scaling, which rapidly retrieves historical latent representations to better guide current LLM reasoning; and nighttime scaling, which integrates past latent optimizations in a manner akin to the human brain's consolidation of experiences during sleep. The alternation of daytime and nighttime processes facilitates a fast and slow evolution of LLM TTS, mirroring human cognitive dynamics in a fully unsupervised manner. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks and five model backbones demonstrate that our LatentEvolve surpasses state-of-the-art TTS methods such as LatentSeek and TTRL by up to 13.33% and exhibits exceptional cross-domain and cross-backbone generalization.
ODHSR: Online Dense 3D Reconstruction of Humans and Scenes from Monocular Videos
Creating a photorealistic scene and human reconstruction from a single monocular in-the-wild video figures prominently in the perception of a human-centric 3D world. Recent neural rendering advances have enabled holistic human-scene reconstruction but require pre-calibrated camera and human poses, and days of training time. In this work, we introduce a novel unified framework that simultaneously performs camera tracking, human pose estimation and human-scene reconstruction in an online fashion. 3D Gaussian Splatting is utilized to learn Gaussian primitives for humans and scenes efficiently, and reconstruction-based camera tracking and human pose estimation modules are designed to enable holistic understanding and effective disentanglement of pose and appearance. Specifically, we design a human deformation module to reconstruct the details and enhance generalizability to out-of-distribution poses faithfully. Aiming to learn the spatial correlation between human and scene accurately, we introduce occlusion-aware human silhouette rendering and monocular geometric priors, which further improve reconstruction quality. Experiments on the EMDB and NeuMan datasets demonstrate superior or on-par performance with existing methods in camera tracking, human pose estimation, novel view synthesis and runtime. Our project page is at https://eth-ait.github.io/ODHSR.
CORE-Bench: Fostering the Credibility of Published Research Through a Computational Reproducibility Agent Benchmark
AI agents have the potential to aid users on a variety of consequential tasks, including conducting scientific research. To spur the development of useful agents, we need benchmarks that are challenging, but more crucially, directly correspond to real-world tasks of interest. This paper introduces such a benchmark, designed to measure the accuracy of AI agents in tackling a crucial yet surprisingly challenging aspect of scientific research: computational reproducibility. This task, fundamental to the scientific process, involves reproducing the results of a study using the provided code and data. We introduce CORE-Bench (Computational Reproducibility Agent Benchmark), a benchmark consisting of 270 tasks based on 90 scientific papers across three disciplines (computer science, social science, and medicine). Tasks in CORE-Bench consist of three difficulty levels and include both language-only and vision-language tasks. We provide an evaluation system to measure the accuracy of agents in a fast and parallelizable way, saving days of evaluation time for each run compared to a sequential implementation. We evaluated two baseline agents: the general-purpose AutoGPT and a task-specific agent called CORE-Agent. We tested both variants using two underlying language models: GPT-4o and GPT-4o-mini. The best agent achieved an accuracy of 21% on the hardest task, showing the vast scope for improvement in automating routine scientific tasks. Having agents that can reproduce existing work is a necessary step towards building agents that can conduct novel research and could verify and improve the performance of other research agents. We hope that CORE-Bench can improve the state of reproducibility and spur the development of future research agents.
A Large-scale Dataset with Behavior, Attributes, and Content of Mobile Short-video Platform
Short-video platforms show an increasing impact on people's daily lives nowadays, with billions of active users spending plenty of time each day. The interactions between users and online platforms give rise to many scientific problems across computational social science and artificial intelligence. However, despite the rapid development of short-video platforms, currently there are serious shortcomings in existing relevant datasets on three aspects: inadequate user-video feedback, limited user attributes and lack of video content. To address these problems, we provide a large-scale dataset with rich user behavior, attributes and video content from a real mobile short-video platform. This dataset covers 10,000 voluntary users and 153,561 videos, and we conduct four-fold technical validations of the dataset. First, we verify the richness of the behavior and attribute data. Second, we confirm the representing ability of the content features. Third, we provide benchmarking results on recommendation algorithms with our dataset. Finally, we explore the filter bubble phenomenon on the platform using the dataset. We believe the dataset could support the broad research community, including but not limited to user modeling, social science, human behavior understanding, etc. The dataset and code is available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/ShortVideo_dataset.
A Countrywide Traffic Accident Dataset
Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge. However, the majority of studies on traffic accident analysis and prediction have used small-scale datasets with limited coverage, which limits their impact and applicability; and existing large-scale datasets are either private, old, or do not include important contextual information such as environmental stimuli (weather, points-of-interest, etc.). In order to help the research community address these shortcomings we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. US-Accidents currently contains data about 2.25 million instances of traffic accidents that took place within the contiguous United States, and over the last three years. Each accident record consists of a variety of intrinsic and contextual attributes such as location, time, natural language description, weather, period-of-day, and points-of-interest. We present this dataset in this paper, along with a wide range of insights gleaned from this dataset with respect to the spatiotemporal characteristics of accidents. The dataset is publicly available at https://smoosavi.org/datasets/us_accidents.
Meat Freshness Prediction
In most retail stores, the number of days since initial processing is used as a proxy for estimating the freshness of perishable foods or freshness is assessed manually by an employee. While the former method can lead to wastage, as some fresh foods might get disposed after a fixed number of days, the latter can be time-consuming, expensive and impractical at scale. This project aims to propose a Machine Learning (ML) based approach that evaluates freshness of food based on live data. For the current scope, it only considers meat as a the subject of analysis and attempts to classify pieces of meat as fresh, half-fresh or spoiled. Finally the model achieved an accuracy of above 90% and relatively high performance in terms of the cost of misclassification. It is expected that the technology will contribute to the optimization of the client's business operation, reducing the risk of selling defective or rotten products that can entail serious monetary, non-monetary and health-based consequences while also achieving higher corporate value as a sustainable company by reducing food wastage through timely sales and disposal.
LookAhead: Preventing DeFi Attacks via Unveiling Adversarial Contracts
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) incidents stemming from the exploitation of smart contract vulnerabilities have culminated in financial damages exceeding 3 billion US dollars. Existing defense mechanisms typically focus on detecting and reacting to malicious transactions executed by attackers that target victim contracts. However, with the emergence of private transaction pools where transactions are sent directly to miners without first appearing in public mempools, current detection tools face significant challenges in identifying attack activities effectively. Based on the fact that most attack logic rely on deploying one or more intermediate smart contracts as supporting components to the exploitation of victim contracts, in this paper, we propose a new direction for detecting DeFi attacks that focuses on identifying adversarial contracts instead of adversarial transactions. Our approach allows us to leverage common attack patterns, code semantics and intrinsic characteristics found in malicious smart contracts to build the LookAhead system based on Machine Learning (ML) classifiers and a transformer model that is able to effectively distinguish adversarial contracts from benign ones, and make just-in-time predictions of potential zero-day attacks. Our contributions are three-fold: First, we construct a comprehensive dataset consisting of features extracted and constructed from recent contracts deployed on the Ethereum and BSC blockchains. Secondly, we design a condensed representation of smart contract programs called Pruned Semantic-Control Flow Tokenization (PSCFT) and use it to train a combination of ML models that understand the behaviour of malicious codes based on function calls, control flows and other pattern-conforming features. Lastly, we provide the complete implementation of LookAhead and the evaluation of its performance metrics for detecting adversarial contracts.
Stop Wasting My Time! Saving Days of ImageNet and BERT Training with Latest Weight Averaging
Training vision or language models on large datasets can take days, if not weeks. We show that averaging the weights of the k latest checkpoints, each collected at the end of an epoch, can speed up the training progression in terms of loss and accuracy by dozens of epochs, corresponding to time savings up to ~68 and ~30 GPU hours when training a ResNet50 on ImageNet and RoBERTa-Base model on WikiText-103, respectively. We also provide the code and model checkpoint trajectory to reproduce the results and facilitate research on reusing historical weights for faster convergence.
Robust Analysis of Stock Price Time Series Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models
Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.
TSPulse: Dual Space Tiny Pre-Trained Models for Rapid Time-Series Analysis
The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters, making TSPulse 10-100X smaller than existing pre-trained models. Its efficiency enables GPU-free inference and rapid pre-training, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. Models will be open-sourced soon.
LidarScout: Direct Out-of-Core Rendering of Massive Point Clouds
Large-scale terrain scans are the basis for many important tasks, such as topographic mapping, forestry, agriculture, and infrastructure planning. The resulting point cloud data sets are so massive in size that even basic tasks like viewing take hours to days of pre-processing in order to create level-of-detail structures that allow inspecting the data set in their entirety in real time. In this paper, we propose a method that is capable of instantly visualizing massive country-sized scans with hundreds of billions of points. Upon opening the data set, we first load a sparse subsample of points and initialize an overview of the entire point cloud, immediately followed by a surface reconstruction process to generate higher-quality, hole-free heightmaps. As users start navigating towards a region of interest, we continue to prioritize the heightmap construction process to the user's viewpoint. Once a user zooms in closely, we load the full-resolution point cloud data for that region and update the corresponding height map textures with the full-resolution data. As users navigate elsewhere, full-resolution point data that is no longer needed is unloaded, but the updated heightmap textures are retained as a form of medium level of detail. Overall, our method constitutes a form of direct out-of-core rendering for massive point cloud data sets (terabytes, compressed) that requires no preprocessing and no additional disk space. Source code, executable, pre-trained model, and dataset are available at: https://github.com/cg-tuwien/lidarscout
Lost in Time: Clock and Calendar Understanding Challenges in Multimodal LLMs
Understanding time from visual representations is a fundamental cognitive skill, yet it remains a challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we investigate the capabilities of MLLMs in interpreting time and date through analogue clocks and yearly calendars. To facilitate this, we curated a structured dataset comprising two subsets: 1) ClockQA, which comprises various types of clock styles-standard, black-dial, no-second-hand, Roman numeral, and arrow-hand clocks-paired with time related questions; and 2) CalendarQA, which consists of yearly calendar images with questions ranging from commonly known dates (e.g., Christmas, New Year's Day) to computationally derived ones (e.g., the 100th or 153rd day of the year). We aim to analyse how MLLMs can perform visual recognition, numerical reasoning, and temporal inference when presented with time-related visual data. Our evaluations show that despite recent advancements, reliably understanding time remains a significant challenge for MLLMs.
LightGen: Efficient Image Generation through Knowledge Distillation and Direct Preference Optimization
Recent advances in text-to-image generation have primarily relied on extensive datasets and parameter-heavy architectures. These requirements severely limit accessibility for researchers and practitioners who lack substantial computational resources. In this paper, we introduce \model, an efficient training paradigm for image generation models that uses knowledge distillation (KD) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Drawing inspiration from the success of data KD techniques widely adopted in Multi-Modal Large Language Models (MLLMs), LightGen distills knowledge from state-of-the-art (SOTA) text-to-image models into a compact Masked Autoregressive (MAR) architecture with only 0.7B parameters. Using a compact synthetic dataset of just 2M high-quality images generated from varied captions, we demonstrate that data diversity significantly outweighs data volume in determining model performance. This strategy dramatically reduces computational demands and reduces pre-training time from potentially thousands of GPU-days to merely 88 GPU-days. Furthermore, to address the inherent shortcomings of synthetic data, particularly poor high-frequency details and spatial inaccuracies, we integrate the DPO technique that refines image fidelity and positional accuracy. Comprehensive experiments confirm that LightGen achieves image generation quality comparable to SOTA models while significantly reducing computational resources and expanding accessibility for resource-constrained environments. Code is available at https://github.com/XianfengWu01/LightGen
3DGS-Avatar: Animatable Avatars via Deformable 3D Gaussian Splatting
We introduce an approach that creates animatable human avatars from monocular videos using 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Existing methods based on neural radiance fields (NeRFs) achieve high-quality novel-view/novel-pose image synthesis but often require days of training, and are extremely slow at inference time. Recently, the community has explored fast grid structures for efficient training of clothed avatars. Albeit being extremely fast at training, these methods can barely achieve an interactive rendering frame rate with around 15 FPS. In this paper, we use 3D Gaussian Splatting and learn a non-rigid deformation network to reconstruct animatable clothed human avatars that can be trained within 30 minutes and rendered at real-time frame rates (50+ FPS). Given the explicit nature of our representation, we further introduce as-isometric-as-possible regularizations on both the Gaussian mean vectors and the covariance matrices, enhancing the generalization of our model on highly articulated unseen poses. Experimental results show that our method achieves comparable and even better performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches on animatable avatar creation from a monocular input, while being 400x and 250x faster in training and inference, respectively.
Miipher-2: A Universal Speech Restoration Model for Million-Hour Scale Data Restoration
Training data cleaning is a new application for generative model-based speech restoration (SR). This paper introduces Miipher-2, an SR model designed for million-hour scale data, for training data cleaning for large-scale generative models like large language models. Key challenges addressed include generalization to unseen languages, operation without explicit conditioning (e.g., text, speaker ID), and computational efficiency. Miipher-2 utilizes a frozen, pre-trained Universal Speech Model (USM), supporting over 300 languages, as a robust, conditioning-free feature extractor. To optimize efficiency and minimize memory, Miipher-2 incorporates parallel adapters for predicting clean USM features from noisy inputs and employs the WaveFit neural vocoder for waveform synthesis. These components were trained on 3,000 hours of multi-lingual, studio-quality recordings with augmented degradations, while USM parameters remained fixed. Experimental results demonstrate Miipher-2's superior or comparable performance to conventional SR models in word-error-rate, speaker similarity, and both objective and subjective sound quality scores across all tested languages. Miipher-2 operates efficiently on consumer-grade accelerators, achieving a real-time factor of 0.0078, enabling the processing of a million-hour speech dataset in approximately three days using only 100 such accelerators.
Flashlights: An Off-Caustic Lensed Star at Redshift $z$ = 1.26 in Abell 370
We report the discovery of a transient seen in a strongly lensed arc at redshift z_{rm s}=1.2567 in Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the Abell 370 galaxy cluster. The transient is detected at 29.51pm0.14 AB mag in a WFC3/UVIS F200LP difference image made using observations from two different epochs, obtained in the framework of the Flashlights program, and is also visible in the F350LP band (m_{rm F350LP} approx 30.53pm0.76 AB mag). The transient is observed on the negative-parity side of the critical curve at a distance of sim 0.6" from it, greater than previous examples of lensed stars. The large distance from the critical curve yields a significantly smaller macromagnification, but our simulations show that bright, O/B-type supergiants can reach sufficiently high magnifications to be seen at the observed position and magnitude. In addition, the observed transient image is a trailing image with an observer-frame time delay of sim+0.8 days from its expected counterpart, so that any transient lasting for longer than that should have also been seen on the minima side and is thus excluded. This, together with the blue colour we measure for the transient (m_{rm F200LP} - m_{rm F350LP} approx [-0.3,-1.6] AB), rules out most other transient candidates such as (kilo)novae, for example, and makes a lensed star the prime candidate. Assuming the transient is indeed a lensed star as suggested, many more such events should be detected in the near future in cluster surveys with the Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope.
ATM Cash demand forecasting in an Indian Bank with chaos and deep learning
This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.
Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series
Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.
FRAKE: Fusional Real-time Automatic Keyword Extraction
Keyword extraction is the process of identifying the words or phrases that express the main concepts of text to the best of one's ability. Electronic infrastructure creates a considerable amount of text every day and at all times. This massive volume of documents makes it practically impossible for human resources to study and manage them. Nevertheless, the need for these documents to be accessed efficiently and effectively is evident in numerous purposes. A blog, news article, or technical note is considered a relatively long text since the reader aims to learn the subject based on keywords or topics. Our approach consists of a combination of two models: graph centrality features and textural features. The proposed method has been used to extract the best keyword among the candidate keywords with an optimal combination of graph centralities, such as degree, betweenness, eigenvector, closeness centrality and etc, and textural, such as Casing, Term position, Term frequency normalization, Term different sentence, Part Of Speech tagging. There have also been attempts to distinguish keywords from candidate phrases and consider them on separate keywords. For evaluating the proposed method, seven datasets were used: Semeval2010, SemEval2017, Inspec, fao30, Thesis100, pak2018, and Wikinews, with results reported as Precision, Recall, and F- measure. Our proposed method performed much better in terms of evaluation metrics in all reviewed datasets compared with available methods in literature. An approximate 16.9% increase was witnessed in F-score metric and this was much more for the Inspec in English datasets and WikiNews in forgone languages.
Train a Multi-Task Diffusion Policy on RLBench-18 in One Day with One GPU
We present a method for training multi-task vision-language robotic diffusion policies that reduces training time and memory usage by an order of magnitude. This improvement arises from a previously underexplored distinction between action diffusion and the image diffusion techniques that inspired it: image generation targets are high-dimensional, while robot actions lie in a much lower-dimensional space. Meanwhile, the vision-language conditions for action generation remain high-dimensional. Our approach, Mini-Diffuser, exploits this asymmetry by introducing Level-2 minibatching, which pairs multiple noised action samples with each vision-language condition, instead of the conventional one-to-one sampling strategy. To support this batching scheme, we introduce architectural adaptations to the diffusion transformer that prevent information leakage across samples while maintaining full conditioning access. In RLBench simulations, Mini-Diffuser achieves 95\% of the performance of state-of-the-art multi-task diffusion policies, while using only 5\% of the training time and 7\% of the memory. Real-world experiments further validate that Mini-Diffuser preserves the key strengths of diffusion-based policies, including the ability to model multimodal action distributions and produce behavior conditioned on diverse perceptual inputs. Code available at github.com/utomm/mini-diffuse-actor.
Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement
In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.
Qwen3-Omni Technical Report
We present Qwen3-Omni, a single multimodal model that, for the first time, maintains state-of-the-art performance across text, image, audio, and video without any degradation relative to single-modal counterparts. Qwen3-Omni matches the performance of same-sized single-modal models within the Qwen series and excels particularly on audio tasks. Across 36 audio and audio-visual benchmarks, Qwen3-Omni achieves open-source SOTA on 32 benchmarks and overall SOTA on 22, outperforming strong closed-source models such as Gemini-2.5-Pro, Seed-ASR, and GPT-4o-Transcribe. Qwen3-Omni adopts a Thinker-Talker MoE architecture that unifies perception and generation across text, images, audio, and video, yielding fluent text and natural real-time speech. It supports text interaction in 119 languages, speech understanding in 19 languages, and speech generation in 10 languages. To reduce first-packet latency in streaming synthesis, Talker autoregressively predicts discrete speech codecs using a multi-codebook scheme. Leveraging the representational capacity of these codebooks, we replace computationally intensive block-wise diffusion with a lightweight causal ConvNet, enabling streaming from the first codec frame. In cold-start settings, Qwen3-Omni achieves a theoretical end-to-end first-packet latency of 234 ms. To further strengthen multimodal reasoning, we introduce a Thinking model that explicitly reasons over inputs from any modality. Since the research community currently lacks a general-purpose audio captioning model, we fine-tuned Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B to obtain Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Captioner, which produces detailed, low-hallucination captions for arbitrary audio inputs. Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B, Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Thinking, and Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Captioner are publicly released under the Apache 2.0 license.
Self-supervision of wearable sensors time-series data for influenza detection
Self-supervision may boost model performance in downstream tasks. However, there is no principled way of selecting the self-supervised objectives that yield the most adaptable models. Here, we study this problem on daily time-series data generated from wearable sensors used to detect onset of influenza-like illness (ILI). We first show that using self-supervised learning to predict next-day time-series values allows us to learn rich representations which can be adapted to perform accurate ILI prediction. Second, we perform an empirical analysis of three different self-supervised objectives to assess their adaptability to ILI prediction. Our results show that predicting the next day's resting heart rate or time-in-bed during sleep provides better representations for ILI prediction. These findings add to previous work demonstrating the practical application of self-supervised learning from activity data to improve health predictions.
Multiwavelength Variability Analysis of the Blazar PKS 0727-11: A $\sim$168 Days Quasi-periodic Oscillation in Gamma-ray
We performed variability analysis of the multiwavelength light curves for the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 0727-11. Using the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, we identified a possible quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of sim 168.6 days (persisted for 6 cycles, with a significance of 3.8sigma) in the gamma-ray light curve during the flare period (MJD 54687-55738). It is the first time that periodic variations have been detected in this source, and further supported by other methods: weighted wavelet z-transform, phase dispersion minimization, REDFIT, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and structure function analysis. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between multi-band light variations, indicating that gamma-ray and radio flares may originate from the same disturbance, and the distance between the emission regions of gamma-ray and radio flares is calculated based on the time lag. We demonstrate that QPO arising from the non-ballistic helical jet motion driven by the orbital motion in a supermassive binary black hole is a plausible physical explanation. In this scenario, the estimated mass of the primary black hole is Msim3.66times10^8-5.79times10^{9}M_odot.
Scaling Down to Scale Up: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Replacing OpenAI's LLM with Open Source SLMs in Production
Many companies use large language models (LLMs) offered as a service, like OpenAI's GPT-4, to create AI-enabled product experiences. Along with the benefits of ease-of-use and shortened time-to-solution, this reliance on proprietary services has downsides in model control, performance reliability, uptime predictability, and cost. At the same time, a flurry of open-source small language models (SLMs) has been made available for commercial use. However, their readiness to replace existing capabilities remains unclear, and a systematic approach to holistically evaluate these SLMs is not readily available. This paper presents a systematic evaluation methodology and a characterization of modern open-source SLMs and their trade-offs when replacing proprietary LLMs for a real-world product feature. We have designed SLaM, an open-source automated analysis tool that enables the quantitative and qualitative testing of product features utilizing arbitrary SLMs. Using SLaM, we examine the quality and performance characteristics of modern SLMs relative to an existing customer-facing implementation using the OpenAI GPT-4 API. Across 9 SLMs and their 29 variants, we observe that SLMs provide competitive results, significant performance consistency improvements, and a cost reduction of 5x~29x when compared to GPT-4.
Dynamic Factor Analysis of Price Movements in the Philippine Stock Exchange
The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.
CodeElo: Benchmarking Competition-level Code Generation of LLMs with Human-comparable Elo Ratings
With the increasing code reasoning capabilities of existing large language models (LLMs) and breakthroughs in reasoning models like OpenAI o1 and o3, there is a growing need to develop more challenging and comprehensive benchmarks that effectively test their sophisticated competition-level coding abilities. Existing benchmarks, like LiveCodeBench and USACO, fall short due to the unavailability of private test cases, lack of support for special judges, and misaligned execution environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce CodeElo, a standardized competition-level code generation benchmark that effectively addresses all these challenges for the first time. CodeElo benchmark is mainly based on the official CodeForces platform and tries to align with the platform as much as possible. We compile the recent six months of contest problems on CodeForces with detailed information such as contest divisions, problem difficulty ratings, and problem algorithm tags. We introduce a unique judging method in which problems are submitted directly to the platform and develop a reliable Elo rating calculation system that aligns with the platform and is comparable with human participants but has lower variance. By testing on our CodeElo, we provide the Elo ratings of 30 existing popular open-source and 3 proprietary LLMs for the first time. The results show that o1-mini and QwQ-32B-Preview stand out significantly, achieving Elo ratings of 1578 and 1261, respectively, while other models struggle even with the easiest problems, placing in the lowest 20 percent among all human participants. Detailed analysis experiments are also conducted to provide insights into performance across algorithms and comparisons between using C++ and Python, which can suggest directions for future studies.
From Hypothesis to Publication: A Comprehensive Survey of AI-Driven Research Support Systems
Research is a fundamental process driving the advancement of human civilization, yet it demands substantial time and effort from researchers. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has inspired researchers to explore how AI can accelerate and enhance research. To monitor relevant advancements, this paper presents a systematic review of the progress in this domain. Specifically, we organize the relevant studies into three main categories: hypothesis formulation, hypothesis validation, and manuscript publication. Hypothesis formulation involves knowledge synthesis and hypothesis generation. Hypothesis validation includes the verification of scientific claims, theorem proving, and experiment validation. Manuscript publication encompasses manuscript writing and the peer review process. Furthermore, we identify and discuss the current challenges faced in these areas, as well as potential future directions for research. Finally, we also offer a comprehensive overview of existing benchmarks and tools across various domains that support the integration of AI into the research process. We hope this paper serves as an introduction for beginners and fosters future research. Resources have been made publicly available at https://github.com/zkzhou126/AI-for-Research.
DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model
We present DeepSeek-V2, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model characterized by economical training and efficient inference. It comprises 236B total parameters, of which 21B are activated for each token, and supports a context length of 128K tokens. DeepSeek-V2 adopts innovative architectures including Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and DeepSeekMoE. MLA guarantees efficient inference through significantly compressing the Key-Value (KV) cache into a latent vector, while DeepSeekMoE enables training strong models at an economical cost through sparse computation. Compared with DeepSeek 67B, DeepSeek-V2 achieves significantly stronger performance, and meanwhile saves 42.5% of training costs, reduces the KV cache by 93.3%, and boosts the maximum generation throughput to 5.76 times. We pretrain DeepSeek-V2 on a high-quality and multi-source corpus consisting of 8.1T tokens, and further perform Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) to fully unlock its potential. Evaluation results show that, even with only 21B activated parameters, DeepSeek-V2 and its chat versions still achieve top-tier performance among open-source models.
Understanding of the properties of neural network approaches for transient light curve approximations
Modern-day time-domain photometric surveys collect a lot of observations of various astronomical objects and the coming era of large-scale surveys will provide even more information on their properties. Spectroscopic follow-ups are especially crucial for transients such as supernovae and most of these objects have not been subject to such studies. }{Flux time series are actively used as an affordable alternative for photometric classification and characterization, for instance, peak identifications and luminosity decline estimations. However, the collected time series are multidimensional and irregularly sampled, while also containing outliers and without any well-defined systematic uncertainties. This paper presents a search for the best-performing methods to approximate the observed light curves over time and wavelength for the purpose of generating time series with regular time steps in each passband.}{We examined several light curve approximation methods based on neural networks such as multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian neural networks, and normalizing flows to approximate observations of a single light curve. Test datasets include simulated PLAsTiCC and real Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves of transients.}{The tests demonstrate that even just a few observations are enough to fit the networks and improve the quality of approximation, compared to state-of-the-art models. The methods described in this work have a low computational complexity and are significantly faster than Gaussian processes. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of the approximation techniques from the perspective of further peak identification and transients classification. The study results have been released in an open and user-friendly Fulu Python library available on GitHub for the scientific community.
Benchmarking the Processing of Aircraft Tracks with Triples Mode and Self-Scheduling
As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Developing and certifying collision avoidance systems often rely on the extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. To train these models, high performance computing resources are required. We've prototyped a high performance computing workflow designed and deployed on the Lincoln Laboratory Supercomputing Center to process billions of observations of aircraft. However, the prototype has various computational and storage bottlenecks that limited rapid or more comprehensive analyses and models. In response, we have developed a novel workflow to take advantage of various job launch and task distribution technologies to improve performance. The workflow was benchmarked using two datasets of observations of aircraft, including a new dataset focused on the environment around aerodromes. Optimizing how the workflow was parallelized drastically reduced the execution time from weeks to days.
FIgLib & SmokeyNet: Dataset and Deep Learning Model for Real-Time Wildland Fire Smoke Detection
The size and frequency of wildland fires in the western United States have dramatically increased in recent years. On high-fire-risk days, a small fire ignition can rapidly grow and become out of control. Early detection of fire ignitions from initial smoke can assist the response to such fires before they become difficult to manage. Past deep learning approaches for wildfire smoke detection have suffered from small or unreliable datasets that make it difficult to extrapolate performance to real-world scenarios. In this work, we present the Fire Ignition Library (FIgLib), a publicly available dataset of nearly 25,000 labeled wildfire smoke images as seen from fixed-view cameras deployed in Southern California. We also introduce SmokeyNet, a novel deep learning architecture using spatiotemporal information from camera imagery for real-time wildfire smoke detection. When trained on the FIgLib dataset, SmokeyNet outperforms comparable baselines and rivals human performance. We hope that the availability of the FIgLib dataset and the SmokeyNet architecture will inspire further research into deep learning methods for wildfire smoke detection, leading to automated notification systems that reduce the time to wildfire response.
LAN: Learning Adaptive Neighbors for Real-Time Insider Threat Detection
Enterprises and organizations are faced with potential threats from insider employees that may lead to serious consequences. Previous studies on insider threat detection (ITD) mainly focus on detecting abnormal users or abnormal time periods (e.g., a week or a day). However, a user may have hundreds of thousands of activities in the log, and even within a day there may exist thousands of activities for a user, requiring a high investigation budget to verify abnormal users or activities given the detection results. On the other hand, existing works are mainly post-hoc methods rather than real-time detection, which can not report insider threats in time before they cause loss. In this paper, we conduct the first study towards real-time ITD at activity level, and present a fine-grained and efficient framework LAN. Specifically, LAN simultaneously learns the temporal dependencies within an activity sequence and the relationships between activities across sequences with graph structure learning. Moreover, to mitigate the data imbalance problem in ITD, we propose a novel hybrid prediction loss, which integrates self-supervision signals from normal activities and supervision signals from abnormal activities into a unified loss for anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of LAN on two widely used datasets, i.e., CERT r4.2 and CERT r5.2. Extensive and comparative experiments demonstrate the superiority of LAN, outperforming 9 state-of-the-art baselines by at least 9.92% and 6.35% in AUC for real-time ITD on CERT r4.2 and r5.2, respectively. Moreover, LAN can be also applied to post-hoc ITD, surpassing 8 competitive baselines by at least 7.70% and 4.03% in AUC on two datasets. Finally, the ablation study, parameter analysis, and compatibility analysis evaluate the impact of each module and hyper-parameter in LAN. The source code can be obtained from https://github.com/Li1Neo/LAN.
Metastable Cosmological Constant and Gravitational Bubbles: Ultra-Late-Time Transitions in Modified Gravity
The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.
Conditional Quantile Estimation for Uncertain Watch Time in Short-Video Recommendation
Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in user engagement patterns. In this paper, we propose Conditional Quantile Estimation (CQE) to model the entire conditional distribution of watch time. Using quantile regression, CQE characterizes the complex watch-time distribution for each user-video pair, providing a flexible and comprehensive approach to understanding user behavior. We further design multiple strategies to combine the quantile estimates, adapting to different recommendation scenarios and user preferences. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the superiority of CQE in watch-time prediction and user engagement modeling. Specifically, deploying CQE online on a large-scale platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users has led to substantial gains in key evaluation metrics, including active days, engagement time, and video views. These results highlight the practical impact of our proposed approach in enhancing the user experience and overall performance of the short video recommendation system. The code will be released https://github.com/justopit/CQE.
ChatLog: Recording and Analyzing ChatGPT Across Time
While there are abundant researches about evaluating ChatGPT on natural language understanding and generation tasks, few studies have investigated how ChatGPT's behavior changes over time. In this paper, we collect a coarse-to-fine temporal dataset called ChatLog, consisting of two parts that update monthly and daily: ChatLog-Monthly is a dataset of 38,730 question-answer pairs collected every month including questions from both the reasoning and classification tasks. ChatLog-Daily, on the other hand, consists of ChatGPT's responses to 1000 identical questions for long-form generation every day. We conduct comprehensive automatic and human evaluation to provide the evidence for the existence of ChatGPT evolving patterns. We further analyze the unchanged characteristics of ChatGPT over time by extracting its knowledge and linguistic features. We find some stable features to improve the robustness of a RoBERTa-based detector on new versions of ChatGPT. We will continuously maintain our project at https://github.com/THU-KEG/ChatLog.
Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior
Believable proxies of human behavior can empower interactive applications ranging from immersive environments to rehearsal spaces for interpersonal communication to prototyping tools. In this paper, we introduce generative agents--computational software agents that simulate believable human behavior. Generative agents wake up, cook breakfast, and head to work; artists paint, while authors write; they form opinions, notice each other, and initiate conversations; they remember and reflect on days past as they plan the next day. To enable generative agents, we describe an architecture that extends a large language model to store a complete record of the agent's experiences using natural language, synthesize those memories over time into higher-level reflections, and retrieve them dynamically to plan behavior. We instantiate generative agents to populate an interactive sandbox environment inspired by The Sims, where end users can interact with a small town of twenty five agents using natural language. In an evaluation, these generative agents produce believable individual and emergent social behaviors: for example, starting with only a single user-specified notion that one agent wants to throw a Valentine's Day party, the agents autonomously spread invitations to the party over the next two days, make new acquaintances, ask each other out on dates to the party, and coordinate to show up for the party together at the right time. We demonstrate through ablation that the components of our agent architecture--observation, planning, and reflection--each contribute critically to the believability of agent behavior. By fusing large language models with computational, interactive agents, this work introduces architectural and interaction patterns for enabling believable simulations of human behavior.
CodeCompose: A Large-Scale Industrial Deployment of AI-assisted Code Authoring
The rise of large language models (LLMs) has unlocked various applications of this technology in software development. In particular, generative LLMs have been shown to effectively power AI-based code authoring tools that can suggest entire statements or blocks of code during code authoring. In this paper we present CodeCompose, an AI-assisted code authoring tool developed and deployed at Meta internally. CodeCompose is based on the InCoder LLM that merges generative capabilities with bi-directionality. We have scaled up CodeCompose to serve tens of thousands of developers at Meta, across 10+ programming languages and several coding surfaces. We discuss unique challenges in terms of user experience and metrics that arise when deploying such tools in large-scale industrial settings. We present our experience in making design decisions about the model and system architecture for CodeCompose that addresses these challenges. Finally, we present metrics from our large-scale deployment of CodeCompose that shows its impact on Meta's internal code authoring experience over a 15-day time window, where 4.5 million suggestions were made by CodeCompose. Quantitative metrics reveal that (i) CodeCompose has an acceptance rate of 22% across several languages, and (ii) 8% of the code typed by users of CodeCompose is through accepting code suggestions from CodeCompose. Qualitative feedback indicates an overwhelming 91.5% positive reception for CodeCompose. In addition to assisting with code authoring, CodeCompose is also introducing other positive side effects such as encouraging developers to generate more in-code documentation, helping them with the discovery of new APIs, etc.
ProphetNet: Predicting Future N-gram for Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training
This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.
Automating Code Review Activities by Large-Scale Pre-training
Code review is an essential part to software development lifecycle since it aims at guaranteeing the quality of codes. Modern code review activities necessitate developers viewing, understanding and even running the programs to assess logic, functionality, latency, style and other factors. It turns out that developers have to spend far too much time reviewing the code of their peers. Accordingly, it is in significant demand to automate the code review process. In this research, we focus on utilizing pre-training techniques for the tasks in the code review scenario. We collect a large-scale dataset of real-world code changes and code reviews from open-source projects in nine of the most popular programming languages. To better understand code diffs and reviews, we propose CodeReviewer, a pre-trained model that utilizes four pre-training tasks tailored specifically for the code review scenario. To evaluate our model, we focus on three key tasks related to code review activities, including code change quality estimation, review comment generation and code refinement. Furthermore, we establish a high-quality benchmark dataset based on our collected data for these three tasks and conduct comprehensive experiments on it. The experimental results demonstrate that our model outperforms the previous state-of-the-art pre-training approaches in all tasks. Further analysis show that our proposed pre-training tasks and the multilingual pre-training dataset benefit the model on the understanding of code changes and reviews.
Building, Reusing, and Generalizing Abstract Representations from Concrete Sequences
Humans excel at learning abstract patterns across different sequences, filtering out irrelevant details, and transferring these generalized concepts to new sequences. In contrast, many sequence learning models lack the ability to abstract, which leads to memory inefficiency and poor transfer. We introduce a non-parametric hierarchical variable learning model (HVM) that learns chunks from sequences and abstracts contextually similar chunks as variables. HVM efficiently organizes memory while uncovering abstractions, leading to compact sequence representations. When learning on language datasets such as babyLM, HVM learns a more efficient dictionary than standard compression algorithms such as Lempel-Ziv. In a sequence recall task requiring the acquisition and transfer of variables embedded in sequences, we demonstrate HVM's sequence likelihood correlates with human recall times. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) struggle to transfer abstract variables as effectively as humans. From HVM's adjustable layer of abstraction, we demonstrate that the model realizes a precise trade-off between compression and generalization. Our work offers a cognitive model that captures the learning and transfer of abstract representations in human cognition and differentiates itself from LLMs.
Sampling Is All You Need on Modeling Long-Term User Behaviors for CTR Prediction
Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.
Qwen3Guard Technical Report
As large language models (LLMs) become more capable and widely used, ensuring the safety of their outputs is increasingly critical. Existing guardrail models, though useful in static evaluation settings, face two major limitations in real-world applications: (1) they typically output only binary "safe/unsafe" labels, which can be interpreted inconsistently across diverse safety policies, rendering them incapable of accommodating varying safety tolerances across domains; and (2) they require complete model outputs before performing safety checks, making them fundamentally incompatible with streaming LLM inference, thereby preventing timely intervention during generation and increasing exposure to harmful partial outputs. To address these challenges, we present Qwen3Guard, a series of multilingual safety guardrail models with two specialized variants: Generative Qwen3Guard, which casts safety classification as an instruction-following task to enable fine-grained tri-class judgments (safe, controversial, unsafe); and Stream Qwen3Guard, which introduces a token-level classification head for real-time safety monitoring during incremental text generation. Both variants are available in three sizes (0.6B, 4B, and 8B parameters) and support up to 119 languages and dialects, providing comprehensive, scalable, and low-latency safety moderation for global LLM deployments. Evaluated across English, Chinese, and multilingual benchmarks, Qwen3Guard achieves state-of-the-art performance in both prompt and response safety classification. All models are released under the Apache 2.0 license for public use.
Between welcome culture and border fence. A dataset on the European refugee crisis in German newspaper reports
Newspaper reports provide a rich source of information on the unfolding of public debate on specific policy fields that can serve as basis for inquiry in political science. Such debates are often triggered by critical events, which attract public attention and incite the reactions of political actors: crisis sparks the debate. However, due to the challenges of reliable annotation and modeling, few large-scale datasets with high-quality annotation are available. This paper introduces DebateNet2.0, which traces the political discourse on the European refugee crisis in the German quality newspaper taz during the year 2015. The core units of our annotation are political claims (requests for specific actions to be taken within the policy field) and the actors who make them (politicians, parties, etc.). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we document and release DebateNet2.0 along with its companion R package, mardyR, guiding the reader through the practical and conceptual issues related to the annotation of policy debates in newspapers. Second, we outline and apply a Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) to DebateNet2.0, comparing two crucial moments of the policy debate on the 'refugee crisis': the migration flux through the Mediterranean in April/May and the one along the Balkan route in September/October. Besides the released resources and the case-study, our contribution is also methodological: we talk the reader through the steps from a newspaper article to a discourse network, demonstrating that there is not just one discourse network for the German migration debate, but multiple ones, depending on the topic of interest (political actors, policy fields, time spans).
Transfer Learning for Emulating Ocean Climate Variability across $CO_2$ forcing
With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.
Aardvark weather: end-to-end data-driven weather forecasting
Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.
SeaTurtleID2022: A long-span dataset for reliable sea turtle re-identification
This paper introduces the first public large-scale, long-span dataset with sea turtle photographs captured in the wild -- SeaTurtleID2022 (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/wildlifedatasets/seaturtleid2022). The dataset contains 8729 photographs of 438 unique individuals collected within 13 years, making it the longest-spanned dataset for animal re-identification. All photographs include various annotations, e.g., identity, encounter timestamp, and body parts segmentation masks. Instead of standard "random" splits, the dataset allows for two realistic and ecologically motivated splits: (i) a time-aware closed-set with training, validation, and test data from different days/years, and (ii) a time-aware open-set with new unknown individuals in test and validation sets. We show that time-aware splits are essential for benchmarking re-identification methods, as random splits lead to performance overestimation. Furthermore, a baseline instance segmentation and re-identification performance over various body parts is provided. Finally, an end-to-end system for sea turtle re-identification is proposed and evaluated. The proposed system based on Hybrid Task Cascade for head instance segmentation and ArcFace-trained feature-extractor achieved an accuracy of 86.8%.
OctGPT: Octree-based Multiscale Autoregressive Models for 3D Shape Generation
Autoregressive models have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet their performance in 3D shape generation lags significantly behind that of diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce OctGPT, a novel multiscale autoregressive model for 3D shape generation that dramatically improves the efficiency and performance of prior 3D autoregressive approaches, while rivaling or surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our method employs a serialized octree representation to efficiently capture the hierarchical and spatial structures of 3D shapes. Coarse geometry is encoded via octree structures, while fine-grained details are represented by binary tokens generated using a vector quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE), transforming 3D shapes into compact multiscale binary sequences suitable for autoregressive prediction. To address the computational challenges of handling long sequences, we incorporate octree-based transformers enhanced with 3D rotary positional encodings, scale-specific embeddings, and token-parallel generation schemes. These innovations reduce training time by 13 folds and generation time by 69 folds, enabling the efficient training of high-resolution 3D shapes, e.g.,1024^3, on just four NVIDIA 4090 GPUs only within days. OctGPT showcases exceptional versatility across various tasks, including text-, sketch-, and image-conditioned generation, as well as scene-level synthesis involving multiple objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OctGPT accelerates convergence and improves generation quality over prior autoregressive methods, offering a new paradigm for high-quality, scalable 3D content creation.
HiBid: A Cross-Channel Constrained Bidding System with Budget Allocation by Hierarchical Offline Deep Reinforcement Learning
Online display advertising platforms service numerous advertisers by providing real-time bidding (RTB) for the scale of billions of ad requests every day. The bidding strategy handles ad requests cross multiple channels to maximize the number of clicks under the set financial constraints, i.e., total budget and cost-per-click (CPC), etc. Different from existing works mainly focusing on single channel bidding, we explicitly consider cross-channel constrained bidding with budget allocation. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical offline deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework called ``HiBid'', consisted of a high-level planner equipped with auxiliary loss for non-competitive budget allocation, and a data augmentation enhanced low-level executor for adaptive bidding strategy in response to allocated budgets. Additionally, a CPC-guided action selection mechanism is introduced to satisfy the cross-channel CPC constraint. Through extensive experiments on both the large-scale log data and online A/B testing, we confirm that HiBid outperforms six baselines in terms of the number of clicks, CPC satisfactory ratio, and return-on-investment (ROI). We also deploy HiBid on Meituan advertising platform to already service tens of thousands of advertisers every day.
Semantics derived automatically from language corpora contain human-like biases
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are in a period of astounding growth. However, there are concerns that these technologies may be used, either with or without intention, to perpetuate the prejudice and unfairness that unfortunately characterizes many human institutions. Here we show for the first time that human-like semantic biases result from the application of standard machine learning to ordinary language---the same sort of language humans are exposed to every day. We replicate a spectrum of standard human biases as exposed by the Implicit Association Test and other well-known psychological studies. We replicate these using a widely used, purely statistical machine-learning model---namely, the GloVe word embedding---trained on a corpus of text from the Web. Our results indicate that language itself contains recoverable and accurate imprints of our historic biases, whether these are morally neutral as towards insects or flowers, problematic as towards race or gender, or even simply veridical, reflecting the {\em status quo} for the distribution of gender with respect to careers or first names. These regularities are captured by machine learning along with the rest of semantics. In addition to our empirical findings concerning language, we also contribute new methods for evaluating bias in text, the Word Embedding Association Test (WEAT) and the Word Embedding Factual Association Test (WEFAT). Our results have implications not only for AI and machine learning, but also for the fields of psychology, sociology, and human ethics, since they raise the possibility that mere exposure to everyday language can account for the biases we replicate here.
Large Batch Optimization for Deep Learning: Training BERT in 76 minutes
Training large deep neural networks on massive datasets is computationally very challenging. There has been recent surge in interest in using large batch stochastic optimization methods to tackle this issue. The most prominent algorithm in this line of research is LARS, which by employing layerwise adaptive learning rates trains ResNet on ImageNet in a few minutes. However, LARS performs poorly for attention models like BERT, indicating that its performance gains are not consistent across tasks. In this paper, we first study a principled layerwise adaptation strategy to accelerate training of deep neural networks using large mini-batches. Using this strategy, we develop a new layerwise adaptive large batch optimization technique called LAMB; we then provide convergence analysis of LAMB as well as LARS, showing convergence to a stationary point in general nonconvex settings. Our empirical results demonstrate the superior performance of LAMB across various tasks such as BERT and ResNet-50 training with very little hyperparameter tuning. In particular, for BERT training, our optimizer enables use of very large batch sizes of 32868 without any degradation of performance. By increasing the batch size to the memory limit of a TPUv3 Pod, BERT training time can be reduced from 3 days to just 76 minutes (Table 1). The LAMB implementation is available at https://github.com/tensorflow/addons/blob/master/tensorflow_addons/optimizers/lamb.py
Force-Free Molecular Dynamics Through Autoregressive Equivariant Networks
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations play a crucial role in scientific research. Yet their computational cost often limits the timescales and system sizes that can be explored. Most data-driven efforts have been focused on reducing the computational cost of accurate interatomic forces required for solving the equations of motion. Despite their success, however, these machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are still bound to small time-steps. In this work, we introduce TrajCast, a transferable and data-efficient framework based on autoregressive equivariant message passing networks that directly updates atomic positions and velocities lifting the constraints imposed by traditional numerical integration. We benchmark our framework across various systems, including a small molecule, crystalline material, and bulk liquid, demonstrating excellent agreement with reference MD simulations for structural, dynamical, and energetic properties. Depending on the system, TrajCast allows for forecast intervals up to 30times larger than traditional MD time-steps, generating over 15 ns of trajectory data per day for a solid with more than 4,000 atoms. By enabling efficient large-scale simulations over extended timescales, TrajCast can accelerate materials discovery and explore physical phenomena beyond the reach of traditional simulations and experiments. An open-source implementation of TrajCast is accessible under https://github.com/IBM/trajcast.
Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecasting
Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.
FastWARC: Optimizing Large-Scale Web Archive Analytics
Web search and other large-scale web data analytics rely on processing archives of web pages stored in a standardized and efficient format. Since its introduction in 2008, the IIPC's Web ARCive (WARC) format has become the standard format for this purpose. As a list of individually compressed records of HTTP requests and responses, it allows for constant-time random access to all kinds of web data via off-the-shelf open source parsers in many programming languages, such as WARCIO, the de-facto standard for Python. When processing web archives at the terabyte or petabyte scale, however, even small inefficiencies in these tools add up quickly, resulting in hours, days, or even weeks of wasted compute time. Reviewing the basic components of WARCIO and analyzing its bottlenecks, we proceed to build FastWARC, a new high-performance WARC processing library for Python, written in C++/Cython, which yields performance improvements by factors of 1.6-8x.
Automated Chronotyping from a Daily Calendar using Machine Learning
Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.
Interest Clock: Time Perception in Real-Time Streaming Recommendation System
User preferences follow a dynamic pattern over a day, e.g., at 8 am, a user might prefer to read news, while at 8 pm, they might prefer to watch movies. Time modeling aims to enable recommendation systems to perceive time changes to capture users' dynamic preferences over time, which is an important and challenging problem in recommendation systems. Especially, streaming recommendation systems in the industry, with only available samples of the current moment, present greater challenges for time modeling. There is still a lack of effective time modeling methods for streaming recommendation systems. In this paper, we propose an effective and universal method Interest Clock to perceive time information in recommendation systems. Interest Clock first encodes users' time-aware preferences into a clock (hour-level personalized features) and then uses Gaussian distribution to smooth and aggregate them into the final interest clock embedding according to the current time for the final prediction. By arming base models with Interest Clock, we conduct online A/B tests, obtaining +0.509% and +0.758% improvements on user active days and app duration respectively. Besides, the extended offline experiments show improvements as well. Interest Clock has been deployed on Douyin Music App.
