# document

id: 81ddfe3f4b8114127ec7579a01bfad2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 17955
content:
"additionally, the relative lack of power of resource-poor communities \r\nliving in areas where such mining makes claims on water and energy \r\nresources renders these communities even more vulnerable (Odell \r\net al., 2018). Given new conditions generated by changes in a growing \r\ndemand and climate change, mining companies will need to increase \r\nresilience to extreme events; additionally, the declining concentrations \r\nof minerals of interest in raw materials require greater energy input \r\nfor extraction and processing and new methods to avoid associated \r\nemissions are required (Hodgkinson and Smith, 2018)."


id: b91b484db53fb965e2d1f14913dd1482
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Increasing temperatures in SWS have impacted temperate forests \r\n(high confidence) (Pena et  al., 2014; Urrutia-Jalabert et  al., 2015; \r\nCamarero and Fajardo, 2017; Fonturbel et al., 2018; Venegas-Gonzalez \r\net  al., 2018b; Pena-Guerrero et  al., 2020). Increasing temperatures \r\nand decreasing precipitation have increased the impacts of wildfires \r\non terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) (Boisier et al., 2016; Diaz\u0002Hormazabal and Gonzalez, 2016; Martinez-Harms et al., 2017; de la \r\nBarrera et al., 2018; Gomez-Gonzalez et al., 2018; Urrutia et al., 2018; \r\nBowman et  al., 2019), creating conditions for future landslides and \r\nfloods (de la Barrera et al., 2018)."


id: ce900a1221df9bf67bf259756c142741
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 30038
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"Urban and agriculture sectors are vulnerable to climate change \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Figure 12.7), \r\nincreasing problems and demand for water (high confidence) \r\n(Monsalves-Gavilan et al., 2013; Meza et al., 2014; Fercovic et al., 2019). \r\nImportant health problems (e.g., pathogenic infections, changes in \r\nvector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, lower neurobehavioural \r\nperformance) have been associated with agriculture, mining and \r\nthermal power production activities in SWS (high confidence) (Munoz\u0002Zanzi et al., 2014; Valdes-Pineda et al., 2014; Pino et al., 2015; Cortes, \r\n2016; Berasaluce et al., 2019; Munoz et al., 2019a; Ramirez-Santana \r\net al., 2020)."


id: cb57a08addc777f76265868f92f6095c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
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vector_id: 29542
content:
"Future projections show important changes in the productivity, \r\nstructure and biogeochemical cycles of SWS temperate and rainforests \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Gutierrez \r\net  al., 2014; Correa-Araneda et  al., 2020) and their fauna (low \r\nconfidence) (Glade et  al., 2016; Bourke et  al., 2018). The Chilean \r\nWinter Rainfall-Valdivian Forests are a biodiversity hotspot (Manes \r\net  al., 2021) (Section CCP1.2.2) projected to suffer habitat change, \r\nwith loss of vegetation cover in the future due to climate change \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Jantz et al., \r\n2015; Mantyka-Pringle et  al., 2015). Species are projected to suffer \r\nchanges in their distribution, including a decrease in climatic refugia \r\nfor vertebrates (low confidence) (Cuyckens et al., 2015; Warren et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 588e003affc71deec8cea8bb8fd9d684
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Increasing temperatures have enlarged the number and areal extent \r\nof glacier lakes in the central Andes, northern Patagonia and southern \r\nPatagonia (high confidence) (Wilson et  al., 2018), while decreased \r\nrainfall and rapid glacier melting have provoked changes in the \r\nenvironmental, biogeochemical and biological properties of central\u0002southern and Andes Chilean lakes (low confidence) (Pizarro et  al., \r\n2016)."


id: 15f900c695ca752bb61d8fed13a1f32f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Increasing glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), ice and rock \r\navalanches, debris flows and lahars from ice-capped volcanoes have \r\nbeen observed in SWS (Iribarren Anacona et al., 2015; Jacquet et al., \r\n2017; Reinthaler et al., 2019b). There is low evidence on the effects of \r\nwarming and degrading permafrost on slope instability and landslides \r\nin these regions (Iribarren Anacona et al., 2015)."


id: e1bcb478e63779d769330b572336ce83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Chile has experienced accelerated economic growth, which has reduced \r\npoverty; however, important geographical, economic and educational \r\ninequalities remain (Repetto, 2016). The Chilean healthcare system has \r\nbecome more equitable and responsive to the population's needs (e.g., \r\nthe Bono AUGE healthcare reform programme); however, the high \r\nrelative inequalities in terms of income (OECD, 2018), education level \r\nand rural-urban factors are determinants of quality of care, health \r\nsystem barriers and differential access to healthcare (high confidence) \r\n(Frenz et al., 2014). Exposure and vulnerability to psychosocial risks \r\nin SWS show significant inequalities in times of disasters such as \r\nearthquakes according to socioeconomic, geographic and gender "


id: 24d44c005baa49ebc68ac5197795f5aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation regimes and an \r\nunprecedented long-term drought have decreased the annual average \r\nriver streamflows that supply SWS megacities such as Santiago (high \r\nconfidence) (Meza et al., 2014; Munoz et al., 2020a), with important \r\nand negative effects on water quality (Bocchiola et al., 2018; Yevenes \r\net  al., 2018), threatening irrigated agriculture activities (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Yevenes et al., 2018; \r\nOertel et  al., 2020; Pena-Guerrero et  al., 2020). Large reductions in "


id: 82856338a771e0108cf3c0590bc1967f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Table 12.4 |  Average percentage change in crop growth duration for the period 2015-2019. Crop growth duration refers to the time taken in a year for crops to accumulate the \r\nreference period (1981-2010) average growing season accumulated temperature total (ATT). As temperatures rise, the ATT is reached earlier (higher negative changes), the crop \r\nmatures too quickly, and thus yields are lower. \"No data\" means no data are available for the growth of that crop in the specified region. NP means that the crop is not present in \r\nsignificant areas in that region. Data were derived from Romanello et al. (2021)."


id: 3e207cdecef6e5e16e9ceb63302554d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"the availability of groundwater in the SWS region (Meza et al., 2014) \r\nand a sustained decrease in the mean annual flows (Ragettli et al., \r\n2016; Bocchiola et al., 2018), especially during the snowmelt season \r\n(Vargas et al., 2013), have been observed in SWS. Drought has affected \r\nwetlands (low confidence) (Zhao et  al., 2016; Domic et  al., 2018) \r\nand desert ecosystems (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Acosta-Jamett et al., 2016; Neilson et al., 2017; Diaz et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 9e526523d2bb5d1dd48ae05d2612a21c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"SWS cities have been largely impacted by wildfires, water scarcity and \r\nlandslides affecting highways and local roads, as well as potable water \r\nsupply (Sepulveda et al., 2015; Araya-Munoz et al., 2016). Increasing \r\ntemperature and heat extreme events in cities have increased the \r\ndemand for water, damage to urban infrastructure (Monsalves\u0002Gavilan et al., 2013) and accelerated ageing and death of trees (high \r\nconfidence) (Moser-Reischl et al., 2019). Increasing temperature will \r\nmodify energy demand in cities in northern and central Chile (Rouault \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 4b46cf38667bcb59c4f126a3ca1fd6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"2011; WGI AR6 Tables 11.14 and Table 11.15, Seneviratne et al., 2021). \r\nThe probability of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced \r\nmega-drought (2010-2015), increases to up to 5 events/100 yr \r\n(Bozkurt et al., 2017). Snow, glaciers, permafrost and ice sheets will \r\ndecrease with high confidence (WGI AR6 Table 12.6, Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021). The observed area and the elevation changes indicate that the \r\nEchaurren Norte glacier may disappear in the coming years if negative \r\nmass balance rates prevail (medium confidence) (Farias-Barahona \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 8e9b4e5077cc2f9d76d3fa1e42af4f09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Increasing temperature, heat extreme events and air pollution in SWS \r\nhave significantly impacted population health (cardiac complications, \r\nheat stroke and respiratory diseases) (high confidence) (Table  12.2; \r\nLeiva G et al., 2013; Monsalves-Gavilan et al., 2013; Pino et al., 2015; \r\nHerrera et al., 2016; Henriquez and Urrea, 2017; Ugarte-Aviles et al., \r\n2017; de la Barrera et al., 2018; Johns et al., 2018; Bowman et al., 2019; \r\nGonzalez et al., 2019; Matus C and Oyarzun G, 2019; Sanchez et al., \r\n2019; Terrazas et al., 2019; Cakmak et al., 2021; Zenteno et al., 2021). \r\nThere is low confidence regarding areal changes in Chagas disease \r\n(Tapia-Garay et al., 2018; Garrido et al., 2019) and transmission rates \r\nin the future (Ayala et al., 2019)."


id: 48fe88d52787121f691f672ded97c3d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The main Argentinian Patagonia cities have developed as a result of \r\noil and gas extraction, which requires massive quantities of water due \r\nto fracking and drilling techniques. Vaca Muerta is the major region \r\nin SA, where those techniques are used to extract oil and gas, and \r\nthis will lead to an exacerbation of current water scarcity issues and \r\nto competition with irrigated agriculture (Rosa and D'Odorico, 2019), \r\nwhich in the context of drought may exacerbate socioenvironmental \r\nconflicts (medium confidence)."


id: 99550de620f3fd8a98c9578bdda65100
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Mean temperatures in the SSA sub-region are projected to continue to \r\nrise up to +2.5degC by 2080 with respect to the present climate (Kreps \r\net al., 2012). A rise in temperature means that an isotherm of 0degC will \r\nmove up mountains, leaving less surface for accumulation of snow \r\n(Barros et al., 2015)."


id: 814393433e426f80d566a1e73dc41723
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"An increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and a \r\ndecrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes are projected \r\nto be likely (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Seneviratne et al., 2021); CMIP6 \r\nmodels project an increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy \r\nprecipitation (medium confidence)."


id: adafd5dc9dc90809b0803a0f68785f30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"It is expected that an increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation, \r\ndroughts and fire weather will intensify through the 21st century in \r\nSSA, but mean wind will decrease (medium confidence) (Kitoh et al., "


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"(Moragues et al., 2019). The climate effect on the summer stratification \r\nof piedmont lakes is another issue in connection with glacier dynamics \r\n(Isla et al., 2010)."


id: c20af68ab4adc482036f60c0cfd0f1d8
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"probably be vulnerable to a decrease in precipitation regimes due to \r\nclimate change, and consequently many species that rely on meadows \r\nin an arid environment will also be impacted (Crego et al., 2014). The \r\nfloods triggered by strong ENSOs caused significant changes in crop \r\nproduction (Isla et al., 2018)."


id: 19259a16c44c1860908b534b05a8ad18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Between 41deg and 56deg South latitude, the absolute glacier area loss \r\nwas 5450 km2\r\n (19%) in the last approximately 150  years, with an \r\nannual area reduction increase of 0.25% yr-1 for the period 2005-\r\n2016 (Meier et al., 2018). The small glaciers in the northern part of the \r\nNorthern Patagonian Ice Field had over all periods the highest rates \r\nof 0.92% a-1. In this sub-region, increased melting of ice is leading to \r\nchanges in the structure and functioning of river ecosystems and in \r\nfreshwater inputs to coastal marine ecosystems (medium confidence: \r\nlow evidence, high agreement) (Aguayo et  al., 2019). In addition, \r\nin the case of coastal areas, the importance of tides and rising sea \r\nlevels in the behaviour of river floods has been demonstrated (Jalon\u0002Rojas et al., 2018)."


id: 12cdda98e57c3d8399c59bec353760e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The development of various human activities and water infrastructure \r\nis depleting water sources, changing river basins from exoreic to \r\nendoreic and the disappearance of a lake in 2016 (Scordo et  al., \r\n2017). Numerous dams for irrigation, some of which are also used \r\nfor hydropower, have been and are planned to be built despite wind \r\npower generation potential (Silva, 2016). Oil and gas have played an \r\nimportant role in the rise of Neuquen-Cipolletti as Patagonia's most \r\npopulous urban area and in the growth of Comodoro Rivadavia, Punta \r\nArenas and Rio Grande as well."


id: d3333b0c670820ea10fa29917504ef78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Suitable areas for meadows (very productive areas for livestock \r\nproduction) will decrease by 7.85% by 2050 given predicted changes \r\nin climate (low confidence) (Crego et al., 2014)."


id: 71ec28b4b6f8c9adfaed92d2c3e7951f
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"The potential impact of climate change is of special concern in arid \r\nand semiarid Patagonia, a >700,000 km2\r\n region of steppe-like plains \r\nin Argentina. Thus, melting snow and ice in the glaciers of Patagonia \r\nand the Andes will alter surface runoff into interior wetlands. A SLR of \r\n20-60 cm will destroy coastal marshes, and an increase in extreme \r\nevents, such as storms, floods and droughts, will affect biodiversity in \r\nwet grasslands (medium confidence: low evidence, high agreement) \r\n(after Junk et al. 2013; Joyce et al. 2016). Three species of lizard from \r\nPatagonia are at risk of extinction as a result of global warming \r\n(Kubisch et al., 2016)."


id: 16e1f8429ebf22dbeabdab2f4fcad3b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"A major drought from 1998 to 1999, coincident with a very hot summer, \r\nled to extensive dieback in a Nothofagus species (Suarez et al., 2004). \r\nIn another dominant Nothofagus species, several periodic droughts \r\nhave triggered forest decline since the 1940s (Rodriguez-Caton et al., \r\n2016)."


id: c54201a574811722e77d9fbc8d585fe4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Climate-change-impacted ocean ecosystems by reducing kelp \r\ncoverage, increasing reproductive failure and chick mortality of \r\npenguins and spurring the poleward expansion of saltmarshes in the \r\nAtlantic Patagonia. SSA houses the Patagonian Steppe Global-200 \r\nterrestrial ecoregion, which is a conservation priority on a global scale, \r\nbut with a clear lack of studies on likely future climate-change impacts \r\n(Section CCP1.2.2.2) (Manes et al., 2021). The Patagonian Steppe may \r\nsuffer pronounced expansion in invasive species' ranges under climate \r\nchange (low confidence) (Wang et al., 2017a)."


id: 460818d5428363bdba75bdb981494ee5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Patagonian ice fields in SA are the largest bodies of ice outside of \r\nAntarctica in the Southern Hemisphere. They are losing volume due \r\npartly to rapid changes in their outlet glaciers, which end up in lakes \r\nor the ocean, becoming the largest contributors to eustatic SLR in \r\nthe world per unit area (Foresta et al., 2018; Moragues et al., 2019; \r\nZemp et al., 2019). Most calving glaciers in the southern Patagonia \r\nice field retreated during the last century (high confidence). Upsala \r\nglacier retreat generated slope instability, and a landslide movement \r\ndestroyed the western edge in 2013. The Upsala Argentina Lake \r\nhas become potentially unstable and may generate new landslides "


id: 787fca235524ad7dea88a4d4f602a651
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Fire has been found to promote or halt biological invasions (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement). For example, an "


id: 41d11cc8cca95f2d26491f50f3dd75bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Table 12.5 |  Change in population-weighted exposure to very high or extremely high wildfire risk. Data were derived from Fire Danger Indices (FDIs) produced by the Copernicus \r\nEmergency Management Service for the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) (available at Copernicus Emergency Management Service [2021]). High and very high \r\nwildfire danger are defined as FDI >= 5. Data were derived from Romanello et al. (2021)."


id: ce738c62f3bcf554467b0cbf584b93a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"1\r\nFigure 12.6 |  Observed trends (WGI AR6 Tables 11.13, 11.14, 11.15) (Seneviratne et al., 2021) and summary of confidence in direction of projected change in climatic \r\nimpact drivers, representing their aggregate characteristic changes for mid-century for RCP4.5, SSP3-44 4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios, or above within each AR6 region, approximately \r\ncorresponding (for CIDs that are independent of SLR) to global warming levels between 2degC and 2.4degC (WGI AR6 Table 12.6) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 1feaf20d08393737cecd500b02e8abe7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"analysis of Pinus spread following wildfires in Patagonia revealed a high \r\nrisk that pines will become invasive if ignition frequency increases as a \r\nresult of climate change (Raffaele et al., 2016). According to Inostroza \r\net al. (2016), the Magellan Region is one of the most fragile regions in \r\nPatagonia, and despite its low population densities, it is undergoing a \r\nsilent process of anthropogenic alteration where between 53.1% and \r\n68.1% of the area needs to be considered to be influenced by humans \r\nwho are occupying pristine ecosystems, even some with extensive \r\nconservation designations (Inostroza et al., 2016). Fire exposure can \r\nresult in several health problems for human populations; Table 12.5 \r\nshows that SSA is the region with the highest exposure to wildfire \r\ndanger."


id: e72d60c7e005859accd802243e64e4be
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"Figure 12.7 |  Sectoral distribution of vulnerability levels to climate change for sub-regions. The vulnerability levels are based on studies that include: (a) databases with \r\nclimate-change vulnerability indexes by country and sector, (b) studies that apply climate-change vulnerability indexes by sector at the local, national, regional or global scale, and (c) \r\nstudies that define some vulnerability level based on the authors' expert judgment."


id: 9e4acde1786299f75b777cdaf66152e7
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"the economy); the importance of the affected system (e.g., for vital \r\necosystem services, for large population groups); the irreversibility of \r\neither the process leading to the risk or the consequences; and the \r\npotential to reduce the risk."


id: 36f51326061136f78f58d889f78c7db0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"This section synthesises key risks across the CSA region. It follows \r\nthe definition and concept of risk given in AR5, distinguishing the \r\nrisk components, climatic hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities of \r\npeople and assets (IPCC, 2014). This concept is further developed in \r\nAR6, defining key risks as potentially severe risks (Section 16.5). Key \r\nrisks may refer to present or future conditions, with a focus on the \r\n21st century. Both mitigation and adaptation can moderate the extent \r\nor severity of risks. The identification and evaluation of risks imply \r\nsociocultural values, which may vary across individuals, communities \r\nor cultures."


id: 8231cb3f912c98074a4ad179e0010261
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Several of the key risks identified for the CSA region align well with \r\nthe overarching key risks assessed in AR5 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014) \r\nand later in O'Neill et al. (2017), as well as with the representative \r\nkey risks assessed in Section  16.5 of this report. The identified key \r\nrisks include the following: KR1: risk of food insecurity due to frequent \r\nand/or extreme droughts; KR2: risk to life and infrastructure due to \r\nfloods and landslides; KR3: risk of water insecurity; KR4: risk of severe \r\nhealth effects due to increasing epidemics (in particular vector-borne \r\ndiseases); KR5: systemic risks of surpassing infrastructure and public \r\nservice systems capacities; KR6: risk of large-scale changes and \r\nbiome shifts in the Amazon; KR7: risk to coral reef ecosystems due \r\nto coral bleaching; KR8: risks to coastal socioecological systems due \r\nto SLR, storm surges and coastal erosion (Table  12.6; Figure  12.11; \r\nTable SM12.5)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"In line with Chapter 16 of this report, this chapter uses a risk outcome \r\nperspective, that is, the focus is on consequences related to risks, \r\nwhich could result from different combinations of hazards, exposure \r\nand vulnerabilities. Few studies in the literature focus on severe risks \r\nin the CSA region, and scant studies consider specifically and explicitly \r\nrisk drivers such as level of warming, level of exposure, vulnerability \r\nand adaptation."


id: 8f672b290800630e0c8f39c47f340956
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"Identification and assessment of key risks are informed by \r\nobserved and projected impacts in the different sub-regions of CSA \r\n(Section 12.3). Figure 12.10 shows a summary of different levels of \r\nobserved and future impacts per sub-region for different sectors, \r\nbased on a detailed assessment of climate-change impacts on various "


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"Criteria for identifying key risks for this chapter include the magnitude \r\nof the consequences, in particular the number of people potentially \r\naffected; the severity of the negative effects of the risk (e.g., lives \r\nthreatened, major negative effects on livelihoods, well-being or "


id: 13340ffcab6cf3d63a85bfa3b0dbf3ab
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"change impacts on human systems. The indication of high impacts on \r\nseveral human systems and sub-regions points to the need to close \r\nthese knowledge gaps."


id: 596fac96e314fe68a492f05ad12086c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"In most sub-regions, crop, livestock, fisheries and food systems in \r\ngeneral show medium to high impacts of climate change over the \r\nobserved period, as does the remaineder of the 21st century (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement). For some sub-regions, \r\nthe available literature does not allow for an assessment of impacts \r\non various human systems, including cities and infrastructure, health, \r\npoverty, livelihoods, migration, conflicts and IKLK, especially for future \r\ntime periods. This points to important knowledge gaps about climate\u0002"


id: 97270c4a99dbd35824029693bd0a2f54
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"Systemic risks where critical infrastructure and public service system \r\ncapacities are surpassed due to storms, floods and epidemics, with \r\ncascading impacts through vulnerable systems and populations \r\nand economic sectors, have the potential to affect large parts of \r\npopulations and are therefore of major concern (medium confidence: \r\nlimited evidence, high agreement). The COVID-19 crisis has exposed \r\nthe existing vulnerabilities in important systems, in particular health \r\nsystems and public services (Phillips et  al., 2020). However, tipping "


id: b0f6a4c9785b07de578e215f755e4876
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Figure 12.9 |  Observed and projected impacts for sub-regions of CSA. Impacts are distinguished for main sectors and for their corresponding systems (or components). \r\nObserved impacts relate to the last several decades. Projected impacts represent a synthesis across several emission and warming scenarios, indicative of a time period from the \r\nmiddle to end of the 21st century. For each system (e.g., coral reefs) climate-change impacts are identified as being low, medium or high. The references underlying this assessment \r\ncan be found in SM12.4.1."


id: d6af6e152f3bcdaf10c9c08ac7810e2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Figure 12.10 |  Synthesis of observed and projected impacts, distinguished for different sectors and each sub-region of CSA. Observed impacts relate to the last \r\nseveral decades. Projected impacts represent a synthesis across several emission and warming scenarios, indicative of a time period from the middle to end of the 21st century. \r\nFor each sector (e.g., health) climate-change impacts are identified as being low, medium or high. The references underlying this assessment can be found in SM12.4.1 and the \r\nmethodology to complete the synthesis is found in SM12.4.2."


id: 88a5b761f6999140622a95518807934c
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"points in social systems are poorly understood (Bentley et al., 2014; \r\nMilkoreit et  al., 2018), and there is limited evidence to inform \r\nunderstanding about which level of compound climatic, environmental \r\nand socioeconomic stressors social systems will withstand in CSA."


id: ae6b8d04f41096474d3f36702c0c9ddc
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"at both the national and sub-national levels. In this context, this \r\nsection assesses, through a sectoral approach, the main challenges, \r\nopportunities, trends and initiatives to adapt to climate change in the \r\nregion."


id: 3fb58a7b356bf133bde3cf286d669808
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Overall, most key risks and their severity and extent are strongly \r\ndriven and determined by system exposure, vulnerability and adaptive \r\ncapacity. In particular, the high vulnerability of large populations, \r\ninfrastructure and service systems, such as health, food and energy \r\nproduction and supply, are important factors, along with high levels \r\nof inequality and poor governance, for creating and increasing key \r\nrisks (high confidence). Prevailing low levels of available information \r\nand understanding exacerbate the uncertainties surrounding key risks \r\nand so pose limitations to adaptation. An example is CA, with its high \r\nlevels of vulnerability and exposure, but there is limited evidence and \r\nunderstanding on impacts and risks, making this region susceptible to \r\ninappropriate adaptation to expected future climate-change impacts."


id: f6ca2303bf9c463e650fb87a2554816d
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"Adaptation initiatives across the region have increased since AR5. \r\nNational Communications (NCs), Nationally Determined Contributions \r\n(NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) (https://unfccc.int) \r\nrecently published are providing guidance for adaptation in CSA. \r\nThere is also a diversity of non-governmental adaptation initiatives, "


id: 77700bef55515f9f86fa07008aaf8fd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Figure 12.11 |  Synthesis of key risks for the CSA region. The base map indicates the mean temperature change between the SSP2 4.5 scenario using \r\nprojections for 2081-2100 and a baseline period of 1986-2005 (WGI AR6 Atlas, Gutierrez et al., 2021)."


id: 6542bb4b1148ad84693f78c330d14a7d
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"impacted by climate change (high confidence), with 26% of projections \r\npredicting species extinctions (Section CCP1.2.2; Manes et al., 2021). \r\nIKLK play an important role in adaptation and are vital components of \r\nmany socioecological systems, while also being threatened by climate \r\nchange (high confidence) (Box 7.1) (Valdivia et al., 2010; Tengo et al., \r\n2014; Mistry et al., 2016; Harvey et al., 2017; Diamond and Ansharyani, \r\n2018; Camico et al., 2021)."


id: f01ba22988d50feb62ff5210eff72f13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"growing commodity production traceability, in 2018 only 19% of the \r\nsoybean meal consumed in EU+ was certified deforestation-free and \r\n38% compliant with the FEFAC Soy Sourcing Guidelines (IDH, 2020), \r\nwhich poses a serious challenge at the international level (Negra et al., \r\n2014; Curtis et al., 2018; Lambin et al., 2018; IDH, 2020)."


id: b7a6ecd763ad01f028c31bc210a4799b
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content:
"12.5.1.3 Adaptation Options to Avert and Reduce Key Risks to \r\nTerrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems"


id: 15bdc479416c0fb61b9626183143b956
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"Research, monitoring systems and other initiatives for knowledge \r\nmanagement are promoted in the region on terrestrial and freshwater \r\nsocioecosystem adaptation (high confidence) (NCs, NDCs and NAPs, \r\nhttps://unfccc.int). In Chile, for example, the Eco-social Observatory \r\nof Climate Change Effects for High Altitude Wetlands of Tarapaca has \r\nbeen collecting information on physical, biological and social variables \r\nsince 2013 (Uribe Rivera et al., 2017). Other examples in the Andes \r\nare the GLORIA-Andes network (Cuesta et  al., 2017a), the Andean \r\nForest Network (Malizia et al., 2020) and the Initiative of Hydrological \r\nMonitoring in the Andes (IMHEA), with measures to optimise \r\nwatershed management and protection and reduce the risk of water \r\ninsecurity (Correa et al., 2020)."


id: 2572ce7606f44cc569c6ce61326d054a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Despite some local and specific assessments (e.g., Warner (2016)), \r\nthere is a significant gap when it comes to identifying barriers to \r\nadaptation or maladaptation in the region (Dow et  al., 2013). In \r\ntheir NCs, NDCs and/or NAPs, most countries identified inadequate \r\nfinancing and access to technology as barriers to adaptation relevant \r\nto terrestrial and freshwater socioecosystems (high confidence). \r\nInsufficient institutional coordination is also frequently mentioned \r\n(Rangecroft et al., 2013; Cameron et al., 2015). These limitations could \r\nbe partially addressed through multi-lateral cooperation, incorporation \r\nof synergies from local to national scales, local empowerment and \r\npoverty alleviation (Rangecroft et al., 2013; Harvey et al., 2017; Murcia \r\net al., 2017; Calispa, 2018; Chain-Guadarrama et al., 2018)."


id: f29bbbfb759aaae8831b6667769dc758
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Poverty is a driver of climate-change risk, while the sustainable use of \r\necosystems fosters adaptation (Kasecker et al., 2018) (high confidence). \r\nMost of the 398 ecosystem-based adaptation hotspots identified in \r\nBrazil on this premise are located in some of the ecosystems that are \r\nmost vulnerable to climate change (Kasecker et al., 2018). Although \r\nconservation and restoration are reported as being effective at \r\nreducing risk (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Anderson et  al., 2010; Borsdorf et  al., 2013; Keenan, 2015; Pires \r\net  al., 2017; Ramalho et  al., 2021), their effectiveness depends on \r\nthe integration of conservation actions with enhancements of local \r\nsocioeconomic conditions (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Scarano and Ceotto, 2015; Pires et  al., 2017; Kasecker \r\net al., 2018; de Siqueira et al., 2021; Vale et al., 2021)."


id: 3eaa21996a91363fa9898d4ac8892d91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"All CSA countries have formulated policies that include measures \r\nrelevant for socioecosystem adaptation in their NCs, NDCs and NAPs, \r\nwith an emphasis on protecting and restoring water and forests (high \r\nconfidence). Existing proposed measures, instruments and programmes, \r\nhowever, do not yet reflect the vision needed to integrate the ecosystem \r\nand human dimensions of vulnerability. Administration coordination and \r\nthe progress in adaptive ecosystem management are still in their early \r\nstages, due in part to the lack of stable financial resources and scientific \r\nknowledge and IKLK about adapting ecosystems to climate change \r\n(Bustamante et al., 2020). Brazil was an exception, showing dramatic \r\npolicy-driven reduction in deforestation in the Amazon between \r\n2004-2012, with a concomitant 70% increase in soy production, the "


id: 3d706c7b20e48e55a77c630b34e1858c
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"Since AR5, there has been an increase in the number of adaptation \r\nmeasures through natural resource and ecosystem service management. \r\nThe main approaches are EbA and community-based adaptation (CbA) "


id: a97053413192eb5f1ccf408c63c1bfd5
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"In addition to better managing and expanding protected area \r\nnetworks, other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), \r\nrecently defined by the Parties to the Convention on Biological \r\nDiversity (Dudley et al., 2018), could also enhance ecosystem resilience \r\n(low confidence). Private protected areas in the mountain regions of \r\nthe Americas (e.g., Andes) play an important role in closing the gaps \r\nin fragmented biomes and expanding protection in underrepresented \r\nareas (Hora et  al., 2018). In Brazil, there is also huge potential for \r\nconservation and sustainable management in private areas, as roughly \r\n53% of the country's native vegetation is within private land (Lapola \r\net al., 2014; Soares-Filho et al., 2014)."


id: 47982f1b3a9673fab538e29a22f2727c
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"Disarticulation between policy and implementation is a common \r\nproblem. Ecuadorian climate public policy points towards a CbA \r\napproach, but it is often downsized when implemented (Calispa, \r\n2018). Important adaptation actions have been undertaken in \r\nArgentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, \r\nParaguay, Peru and Uruguay, both in policymaking and institutional \r\narrangements, but they tend to be poorly coordinated with policies on \r\ndevelopment, land planning and other sectoral policies (Ryan, 2012). \r\nSome type of community participation mechanisms is present in most \r\ncountry strategies, but their levels of implementation vary considerably \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Ryan, 2012; \r\nPires et al., 2017; Calispa, 2018)."


id: ce2a98583f080c3c7c71658bdb32eac0
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"Large-scale restoration is also seen as pivotal to limiting both climate \r\nchange (IPCC, 2019a) and species extinction (IPBES, 2018a) (very high \r\nconfidence). A new multi-criteria approach to optimising multiple \r\nrestoration outcomes (for biodiversity, climate-change mitigation \r\nand cost), for example, indicate that SA has the greatest extension of \r\nconverted lands, evenly distributed in the top 50% of global priorities \r\n(Strassburg et al., 2020)."


id: e825f5b771b87a20b4cb1eeae0b40fe8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"There is an ecosystem bias in adaptation priorities for research and \r\nimplementation, hindering the development of comprehensive \r\nadaptation programmes. Most scientific research on adaptation in Peru \r\nfocuses on the highlands and coastal regions, while mitigation research \r\nfocuses on forests (Chazarin et al., 2014). Combined adaptation and \r\nmitigation strategies can produce positive results, but they are often \r\ndisconnected (Locatelli et al., 2015). Most reviewed cases in agriculture \r\nand forestry in Latin America (84% of 274  cases) reported positive \r\nsynergies between adaptation and mitigation. Nevertheless, research \r\non Latin American forests tend to focus on mitigation, while studies on \r\nagriculture are usually oriented towards adaptation (high confidence) \r\n(Locatelli et al., 2015, 2017)."


id: db3046d931e22bf36637f3ec1579b125
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"Rural communities in the Cusco region, Peru, ground their ability to \r\nadapt to climate change on four cultural values, known in Quechua \r\nas ayni (reciprocity), ayllu (collectiveness), yanantin (equilibrium) \r\nand chanincha (solidarity), but policies oriented towards so-called \r\nmodernisation undermine these traditional mechanisms. Adaptation \r\nstrategies could benefit from integrating these and other insights \r\nfrom traditional cultures, fostering risk reduction and transformational \r\nadaptation towards intrinsically sustainable systems (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Walshe and Argumedo, \r\n2016)."


id: 7719fbae4d3af71af855f88df4f7b9b0
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"Blanco-Libreros and Estrada-Urrea, 2015; Carter et al., 2015; Estrada \r\net  al., 2015; Ferreira and Lacerda, 2016; Oliveira-Filho et  al., 2016; \r\nRodriguez-Rodriguez et al., 2016; Alvarado et al., 2017; Alvarez-Leon \r\nand Alvarez Puerto, 2017; Baptiste et  al., 2017; Borges et  al., 2017; \r\nJaramillo et  al., 2018; Salazar et  al., 2018; Armenteras et  al., 2019; \r\nBlanco-Libreros and Alvarez-Leon, 2019; Maretti et al., 2019; Ellison \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 1fea8025d16d93921f48c8ce5a9b0559
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"CSA sub-regions are highly dependent on ocean and coastal ecosystems \r\nand, thus, vulnerable to climate change (FAO, 2018). Fisheries and \r\naquaculture contribute significantly to food security and livelihoods \r\nby creating employment (more than two million people), income \r\nand economic growth for the region (Section 3.5; FAO, 2018). More \r\nthan 45% of the total fisheries in CSA are based on marine products \r\n(CEPALSTAT, 2019). Peru, Chile, Argentina and Ecuador are among the \r\n15  countries with the largest marine capture production worldwide \r\n(Gutierrez et al., 2016a; FAO, 2018; Vannuccini et al., 2018), while more \r\nthan 90% of the hydrological resources produced by aquaculture in \r\nCSA have a marine origin (CEPALSTAT, 2019). There is high confidence\r\nabout important current and future impacts of climate-change \r\nhazards in marine resources used by fisheries; however, there is low \r\nevidence regarding impacts on regional economies (Figure 12.9, 12.10; \r\nTable SM12.3)."


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"12.5.2.1 Adaptation Measures and Strategies Applied to Oceans \r\nand Coasts of Central and South America"


id: 512546f929b315efdb16e0929a80c541
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"Similar to those strategies pointed out by WGII AR5 Chapter 27 \r\n(Magrin et al., 2014) and Chapter 3 (Section 3.5; Section 3.6.2; Box SLR \r\nin Chapter 3), adaptation strategies in ocean and coastal ecosystems \r\nin CSA remain focused on ecosystem protection and restoration and \r\nthe sustainable use of marine resources (high confidence). There is \r\nlow evidence on how coastal urban areas and tourist settlements of \r\nCSA countries are adapting to SLR and extreme events (Calil et  al., \r\n2017; Villamizar et al., 2017). Some of these strategies include planned \r\nrelocation (Dannenberg et al., 2019) and the use of grey infrastructures \r\nlike seawalls and bulkheads (Silva et al., 2014; Isla et al., 2018)."


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"There is low evidence of how the incorporation of mangroves as \r\nRamsar sites, the reforms of legislations (e.g., fines and stronger \r\nregulations), and the creation of reserves and private protection \r\ninitiatives (e.g., Belize Association of Private Protected Areas BAPPA), \r\nand capacity-building projects or new educational programmes have \r\npromoted the protection of mangroves in CSA countries such as \r\nHonduras, Guatemala and Belize (Cvitanovic et al., 2014; Carter et al., \r\n2015; Ellison et al., 2020). In Brazil, between 75-84% of mangroves \r\nare under some level of protection which has improved the forest \r\nstructures, and multiple research programmes (e.g., Mangrove \r\nDynamics and Management, MADAM, and 'GEF-Mangle') have \r\nbeen developed (medium confidence) (Krause, 2014; Medeiros et al., "


id: 873e7f091f968d4f15b9567e559a7249
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"Adaptation measures in mangrove ecosystems are mainly focused on \r\nthe application of EbA strategies (high confidence). These measures \r\ninclude the application of restoration programmes, the creation \r\nof management plans, which also have significant co-benefits \r\nwith mitigation (Section  3.6.2.1), and the establishment of coastal \r\nprotected areas, followed by the development of research activities \r\nand the creation of specific mangrove policies through new laws and \r\nresolutions (e.g., Colombia) (Cvitanovic et  al., 2014; Krause, 2014; "


id: 982d8b3724bbcbe666cf0cef943e2f3f
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"2014; Estrada et al., 2015; Ferreira and Lacerda, 2016; Oliveira-Filho \r\net al., 2016; Borges et al., 2017; Maretti et al., 2019; Strassburg et al., \r\n2019). In Colombia, research projects (e.g., Mangroves of Colombia \r\nProjects, MCP), the installation of a geographic information system \r\nfor mangroves (e.g., SIGMA Sistema de Informacion para la Gestion \r\nde los Manglares en Colombia), surveillance monitoring plans (e.g., \r\nEGRETTA Herramientas para el Control y Vigilancia de los Manglares), \r\nand the establishment of protected areas have contributed to decrease \r\nloss of the mangrove forest (high confidence) (Blanco-Libreros and \r\nEstrada-Urrea, 2015; Rodriguez-Rodriguez et  al., 2016; Alvarez-Leon \r\nand Alvarez Puerto, 2017; Baptiste et al., 2017; Jaramillo et al., 2018; \r\nSalazar et  al., 2018; Armenteras et  al., 2019; Blanco-Libreros and \r\nAlvarez-Leon, 2019)."


id: 175a95e1317ba7feab07a4809d5c46ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"There is low evidence whether the establishment of MPAs and the \r\ncreation of legal instruments have allowed the development of new \r\nresearch activities have increased the environmental awareness, \r\ndecreased the illegal extraction, and improved the local coordination \r\nwhich have promoted the sustainable use of marine resources, \r\nand improved the community-government cooperation in marine \r\necosystems (Alvarado et  al., 2017). The experience in countries \r\nlike Chile demonstrates the importance of implementing robust \r\nmanagement plans that guarantee the protection objectives and the \r\nsustainability through the implementation of EbA measures such as \r\nMPAs (Petit et al., 2018)."


id: deb0429c20bc7a94594a6bfd501263d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Gutierrez et al., 2016a; Oyanedel et al., 2016; Guerrero-Gatica et al., \r\n2020). In countries like Peru and Chile, there is an increasing presence of \r\nintergovernmental and international cooperation agencies, in addition \r\nto new funding (e.g., GEF) and projects (Inter-American Development, \r\nSPINCAM) related to change adaptation for the fishery sector (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Galarza and Kamiche, \r\n2015; Barragan and Lazo, 2018)."


id: 1a5299deb1ded488421b8f4776237009
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"Beyond the protection, conservation and climate-change adaptation \r\nstrategies implemented on CSA ocean and coastal areas and their \r\necosystems, a high number of adaptation goals to address climate\u0002change impacts on ocean and coastal ecosystems and their services \r\nare incorporated into most of the national climate-change adaptation \r\ncommitments of CSA countries (Table 12.7)."


id: 8ab7896165344097ad9603c3687e133e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"4.5; Immerzeel et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020; WWAP, 2020). Adaptation \r\nto changing water availability is therefore a priority, but most efforts are \r\ndocumented only in the grey literature (e.g., governmental documents, \r\nproject reports) with highly variable standards of quality and evidence. \r\nMost of the documented adaptation initiatives are in an early planning \r\nor implementation stage and evidence on successful outcomes is quite \r\nlimited (Berrang-Ford et  al., 2021). However, the growing number \r\nof adaptation initiatives across the CSA region has contributed to \r\nimproved understanding of complex interlinkages of climate change, \r\nhuman vulnerabilities, local policies and feasible adaptation approaches \r\n(McDowell et al., 2019)."


id: 37267508e57094cb11df8e0a7552328
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"conflicts), a lack of financial resources and long-term commitments \r\n(e.g., crisis, lack of budgets, market fluctuations), weak policies, cultural \r\nconstraints, poverty, low flexibility, lack of awareness of climate risks \r\nand lack of engagement by stakeholders (Leal Filho, 2018; Nagy et al., \r\n2019; Moreno et al., 2020b; Aburto et al., 2021)."


id: 59e64932e80d2ba0e1ee2eb94c65095f
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"There is high confidence that ecological and social resilience is \r\nimproved by the presence of adequate metrics to evaluate adaptation \r\nmeasures to allow dynamic changes; and by increasing basic research \r\nand climate data (Moreno et al., 2020b). Resilience also increases with \r\nthe existence of EWSs, improved local institutions, the construction of \r\nadequate infrastructure, major funding for capacity building and the \r\nenhanced engagement and empowerment of women (FAO, 2016b; \r\nHarper et al., 2017; Frangoudes and Gerrard, 2018; Gallardo-Fernandez \r\nand Saunders, 2018; Leal Filho, 2018)."


id: 156c0d9111cb246da49a8c6ef556cedc
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"Increasing water scarcity is also shaped by poor water quality, \r\nwhich has barely been assessed in CSA. Declining water quality can \r\nbe observed, for example, due to intense agricultural and industrial \r\nactivities in SWS, SES and SSA (medium confidence) (Mekonnen \r\net al., 2015; Gomez et al., 2021), mining in Andean headwaters (NWS, \r\nSWS and Western SAM) and tropical lowlands (eastern SAM and \r\nNSA) (medium confidence) (Bebbington et al., 2015 risk and climate \r\nresilience; Vuille et  al., 2018), urban domestic use (Desbureaux and \r\nRodella, 2019), decreasing meltwater contribution (Milner et al., 2017) \r\nand acid rock drainages from recently exposed glacial sediments \r\n(Santofimia et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018). The level of water pollution \r\nis often exacerbated by missing water treatment infrastructure and "


id: 9ae911f3ef1b77dff2dcf55f216a2da3
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content:
"CSA is one of the regions most affected by current and future hydrological \r\nrisks to water security with an increasing number of vulnerable people \r\ndepending on water from mountains (high confidence) (Sections 4.3, 4.4, "


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"low governance levels (medium confidence) (Mekonnen et al., 2015), \r\nwith considerable negative implications for human health (Lizarralde \r\nOliver and Ribeiro, 2016)."


id: 13fc886634b0cd445b3cae79cc718604
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"Water scarcity risks are projected to affect a growing number of people \r\nin the near and mid-term future in view of growing water demand in \r\nmost regions (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Veldkamp et al., 2017; Schoolmeester et al., 2018; Viviroli et al., 2020), \r\nexpected precipitation reductions in western and northern SAM and \r\nSWS (medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(Neukom et al., 2015; Schoolmeester et al., 2018), substantial vanishing \r\nof glacier extent in NWS, SAM and SWS (Table SM12.6; Rabatel et al., \r\n2018; Vuille et al., 2018; Cuesta et al., 2019; Drenkhan et al., 2019) \r\nand increasing evaporation rates in CA (medium confidence) (CEPAL, \r\n2017). Furthermore, flood risk is a serious concern (Arnell et al., 2016) \r\nand expected to increase, especially in NWS, SAM, SES and SWS in the \r\nmid- and long-term future (high confidence) (Arnell and Gosling, 2016; \r\nAlfieri et al., 2017)."


id: dcc45c8333c6b01d88134f9d3ef7d5fa
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"Risks of water scarcity and flood threaten people unevenly across \r\nthe region. In CSA, about 26% (130 million people) of the population \r\nhave no access to safe drinking water, and strong disparities prevail \r\nregarding its spatial distribution; for example, in Chile, 99% of the \r\npopulation have access, compared to 50% in Peru, 73% in Colombia, \r\n52% in Nicaragua or 56% in Guatemala (high confidence) (UNICEF and \r\nWHO, 2019). Inequalities can be further exacerbated by unregulated \r\nor privately owned water rights and allocation systems (e.g., in Chile) \r\n(Munoz et  al., 2020a). The most vulnerable people belong to low\u0002income groups in rural areas and informal settlements of large urban \r\nareas (high confidence) (WWAP, 2020)."


id: 2b70b5e4414fdbbe3f4f98e00d44f1f0
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"Considerable uncertainties remain concerning future hydrological risks \r\nthat strongly depend on the respective pathways of human intervention, \r\nmanagement, adaptation and socioeconomic development. The \r\ncombination of (seasonally) reduced water supply, growing water \r\ndemand, declining water quality, ecosystem deterioration and habitat \r\nloss and low water governance could lead to increasing competition \r\nand conflict associated with high economic losses (high confidence) \r\n(Vergara et  al., 2007; Vuille et  al., 2018; Desbureaux and Rodella, \r\n2019). This situation threatens human water security in the long \r\nterm and poses an increasing risk to adaptation success in CSA (high \r\nconfidence) (Drenkhan et al., 2015; Huggel et al., 2015b; Urquiza and \r\nBilli, 2020a)."


id: f85f61d21b2257bfe51f787d647734de
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"Important progress has been made on climate change and water \r\nmanagement policies in combination with more inclusive stakeholder \r\nprocesses. For instance, the implementation of NDCs in most countries \r\nof the region provides an important baseline for improving water \r\nefficiency, quality and governance at a multi-sectoral level and, thus, \r\nlong-term adaptation planning (UNEP, 2015)."


id: 56f566b22635e6da5e2abc26c676bf6d
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"In recent years, the inclusion of IKLK in current adaptation baselines \r\nhas attracted increasing attention, particularly in regions with a high \r\nshare of Indigenous Peoples (NWS, SAN, SWS, NSA) (high confidence) \r\n(Reyes-Garcia et al., 2016; Schoolmeester et al., 2018; McDowell et al., \r\n2019). One example is the adapted use of agrobiodiversity when \r\ndealing with more frequent and intense tidal floods in the Amazon \r\ndelta (NSA) (Vogt et  al., 2016). In another context, IKLK has been \r\nconsidered for the evaluation of water scarcity and GLOF risks in Peru \r\n(NWS) (Motschmann et al., 2020b). Additionally, local citizen science\u0002based initiatives (Buytaert et al., 2014; Tellman et al., 2016; Njue et al., \r\n2019) can support the production of multiple forms of knowledge "


id: ace4f01773fe7bb88b943ba07b84e22d
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"Adaptation in the water sector includes a broad set of responses to \r\nimprove and transform, for example, water infrastructure, ecosystem \r\nfunctions, institutions, capacity building and knowledge production, \r\nhabits and culture and local-national policies (Section 4.6)."


id: f386f3f0f3d6962384623e9286dfb7b8
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"Figure 12.13 |  Overview map of observed glacier changes, associated impacts, adaptation and policy efforts across the Andes."


id: 687e31885a575487a7592704193c8ae0
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"(b) Selected adaptation efforts (see upper-right map for the location of each adaptation measure).\r\n(c) Policies and glacier inventory: NDC = submission year(s) of Nationally Determined Contributions (u = update), CCL = climate change law, GLL = glacier law (i = initialised \r\nframework), INV = last national glacier inventory. The explicit mention of glaciers, snow and mountain ecosystems within each law/inventory is highlighted with the corresponding \r\nsymbols (grey = has not come into force)."


id: f0a85688a496b88964193c2cfd155a36
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"(f) Geodetic glacier mass balance in metres water equivalent per year (m w.e./year) and error estimate (+-m w.e./year) retrieved from Dussaillant et al. (2019). nd = no data \r\navailable. Further details can be found in the appendix in Table SM12.6."


id: 1246f19367271d6b7fc980d466e8985a
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content:
"Klenk et  al., 2017). NbS combined with community engagement \r\nand integration of diverse knowledge can foster transformational \r\nadaptation of social-ecological systems (Palomo et al., 2021)."


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"with flexible and extensive data collection. Important questions centre \r\naround how to integrate IKLK and other types of knowledge from the \r\nearly planning stages on, to achieve enhanced or transformational \r\nadaptation building on co-produced knowledge (Kates et  al., 2012; "


id: 9a513ca898fe5c355c1318260b87dfc0
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"1% of total investment in water resource management infrastructure \r\n(WWAP, 2018). These funding deficits set important limitations on \r\nfuture water provision, adaptation to changing water resources and \r\nthe achievement of the SDGs by 2030 (high confidence) (WHO, 2017)."


id: 8242e42c15fc4eb716662e4c26605e6d
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"Many water-related conflicts in CSA are rooted in inequitable water \r\ngovernance that excludes water users from decisions on water \r\nallocation (high confidence) (Drenkhan et  al., 2015; Vuille et  al., \r\n2018). In turn, inclusive water regimes leverage long-term adaptation \r\nplanning. These have been addressed in some national strategies, such \r\nas in Brazil (Ministry of Environment of Brazil, 2016a). At the local \r\nlevel, a decentralised and participatory bottom-up water governance \r\nmodel was induced by civil society and research institutions to foster \r\nrainwater harvesting technologies reducing drought risk in semiarid \r\nBrazil (NES) (Lindoso et al., 2018)."


id: f1cee57ab9d2f6823bc0b4fff0c15f24
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"In CSA, only limited information on the limits of adaptation in relation \r\nto water is available, for instance on the possible path dependency of \r\ninstitutions and associated resistance to change (Barnett et al., 2015). \r\nExamples of soft adaptation limits (i.e., options to avoid intolerable \r\nrisks currently not available) include lack of trust and stakeholder \r\nflexibility, associated with unequal power relations that lead to reduced \r\nsocial learning and poor outcomes for improved water management, \r\nas reported in, for example, NWS (Lindsay, 2018). An example of hard \r\nadaptation limits (i.e., intolerable risks cannot be avoided) in the \r\nregion is the loss of livelihoods and cultural values associated with \r\nglacier shrinkage in NWS (Jurt et al., 2015)."


id: 46ec9937ff3e17627e420c8161c2da7
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"Water fund programmes can generate important co-benefits for \r\nsustainable development, contributing to improved governance and \r\nconservation of watershed systems in CSA. Nevertheless, only a few \r\nexperiences have been evaluated as successful due to insufficient \r\nimplementation, low decision-making ability of some stakeholder groups \r\nand poor evidence-based approaches (medium confidence) (Bremer \r\net al., 2016; Leisher et al., 2019). Furthermore, financing mechanisms \r\nthat produce incentives for sustainable water management have been \r\npromoted, tested or implemented. PES for water provision represents \r\nsuch an example and such mechanisms have been implemented across \r\nCSA since the 1990s (Grima et al., 2016)."


id: 210312e4a276cf6c25e15fcdab5692a9
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"Only about 50-70% of required financial resources are currently \r\nallocated per year to meet the national targets in the water, sanitation \r\nand hygiene (WASH) sector for the Sustainable Development Goal \r\n(SDG) 6 agenda in several regions of CSA. This share drops down \r\nto less than 50% in NSA (Venezuela) and SES (Argentina, Uruguay, \r\nParaguay), except for Panama in CA, which allocates more than 75% \r\nof the required financial resources. For the implementation of NbS, \r\nevidence suggests that the overall expenditure remains well below "


id: 69cedd7e3c10fcf1c89de42fe0a908d0
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"Achieving net-zero emissions while improving standards of living \r\nwill be possible but will also require developing transition policy \r\nframeworks to reach the target (Frank et al., 2019; Mahlknecht et al., \r\n2020; Cardenas et al., 2021)."


id: e22eb22a36559d71becd5eb1eddd5d30
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"policy interface (Lillo-Ortega et  al., 2019) with blended bottom-up \r\nand top-down adaptation to include scientific knowledge with impact \r\nand scenario assessments in local adaptation agendas (Huggel et al., \r\n2015b). For instance, a new allocation rule for the Laja reservoir in \r\nsouthern Chile (SWS), based on consistent water balance modelling \r\nresults, could inform policy and water management and potentially \r\nimprove local water management and reduce water conflicts over the \r\nlong term (Munoz et al., 2019b)."


id: 1e3c1928cd5dfccf6bc5f0eb67a38d1e
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"The governance of adaptation for CSA implies modifying agricultural, \r\nsocioeconomic and institutional systems in response to and in \r\npreparation for actual or expected impacts of climate variability and \r\nchange, to reduce harmful effects and exploit beneficial opportunities \r\n(high confidence). CSA agriculture has a diversity of systems \r\nand segments of producers. While small-scale farmers contribute \r\nsignificantly to food production and food security, especially in \r\ndeveloping economies, they face global policies oriented towards \r\nglobal commodity markets (Knapp, 2017; Fernandez et  al., 2019). \r\nClimate action initiatives that consider CSA's high levels of poverty \r\nand inequality to reduce these pervasive problems are central for \r\nadaptation in the region (Crumpler et al., 2020; Locatelli et al., 2020)."


id: 3532358b49cbcaf8c11f20d74c8c5b2f
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"Since AR5, important advances at the institutional level have occurred \r\nbased on the development and implementation of NAPs for the \r\nagriculture and forestry sector among countries. Adapting to climate \r\nchange entails the interaction of decision makers, stakeholders and \r\ninstitutions at different scales of government, from local to national. The \r\nClimate-Adapted Sustainable Agriculture Strategy for the region of the \r\nCentral American Integration System (EASAC) of the Central American \r\nAgricultural Council of Ministers of Agriculture constitutes a valuable \r\nexample of how to undertake climate action in the agricultural sector, \r\nas a block of countries and in an intersectoral manner, to enhance \r\nresults and make better use of resources (IICA, 2019)."


id: 6d8f2fd01f9c0d999e3705a8889efb01
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"Given these circumstances, some regions in CSA (Andes region and \r\nCA) will just meet, or fall below, the critical food supply/demand ratio \r\nfor their populations (Bacon et al., 2014; Barbier and Hochard, 2018b). \r\nMeanwhile, the more temperate part of SA in the south is projected to \r\nhave agricultural production surpluses (low confidence) (Webb et al., \r\n2016; Prager et al., 2020). The challenge for this region will be to retain \r\nthe ability to feed and adequately nourish its internal population as \r\nwell as making food supplies available to the rest of the world."


id: b17572289cab355bc604b2bf60ec4efb
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"The access of other markets to the region's agricultural products might \r\nbe conditioned on the adoption of low-carbon-agriculture measures. "


id: 569b86679c786f52c6968078f2af54a7
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"Insufficient access to digital services and technologies further widens \r\nthe gap between the rural poor and more urban populations of Latin \r\nAmerica and the Caribbean (medium confidence: insufficient evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). In turn, these factors compromise productivity and \r\ncompetitiveness. Support for the rural poor can be focused on both \r\neconomic competitiveness and social development. Finally, to align the \r\nidentified adaptation options as a priority for achieving future food \r\nsecurity in the NDCs of CSA countries to mitigation commitments, it \r\nwill be essential to highlight synergies by generating evidence (national \r\nresearch) in relation to progress towards increasing productivity and \r\nresilience and reducing GHG, in addition to demonstrating its added \r\nvalue as a development initiative (Rudel et  al., 2015 sustainable; \r\nLoboguerrero et al., 2019)."


id: 9af8db06a154bfe8faf5e3ebcc68f092
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"climate have become important for producers, given recent experiences \r\nof drought and lack of water (high confidence) (Clarvis and Allan, 2014; \r\nRoco et  al., 2016; Hurlbert and Gupta, 2017; Perez-Escamilla et  al., \r\n2017; Cruz et al., 2018; Zuniga et al., 2021). Solutions that consider \r\nrelevant drivers that have demonstrated a positive effect in diffusion of \r\nadaptation strategies are more efficient (Table 12.8). Some conditions, \r\nsuch as the promotion of education programmes, participation in \r\ncooperatives, credit access and land tenure security, can help. In the \r\nsame line, in CSA some elements, such as technology and information \r\naccess and local knowledge, reinforce climate-change adaptation \r\n(Khatri-Chhetri et al., 2019; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019). As stated \r\nin Table  12.8, barriers of various origins persist in connection with \r\nclimate-change adaptation in the region increasing the vulnerability of \r\nfarming systems and rural livelihoods."


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"Limited information regarding cost-benefit analyses of adaptation \r\nis available in the region and regarding avoiding maladaptation \r\neffects and promoting site-specific and dynamic adaptation options \r\nconsidering available technologies (medium confidence) (Roco et al., \r\n2017; Zavaleta et al., 2018; Ponce, 2020; Shapiro-Garza et al., 2020)."


id: ae163b09203378805732f89b087e07d3
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"To contextualise the adaptation options at the regional level, the \r\nmajority of the NDCs of the CSA countries reported observed and/or \r\nprojected climate-related hazards: occurrence of droughts and floods \r\n(80% of countries each), followed by storms (45%) and landslides \r\n(30%), as well as extreme heat, wildfire and invasion by pests and \r\nnon-native species in agriculture (25% each) (Crumpler et al., 2020)."


id: 8ceef5b127b64cb45102a1a380d8d09f
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"Livestock production is for small farmers one of the main sources of \r\nprotein and contributes to food security (Rodriguez et al., 2016). The \r\nimportance of this sub-sector in CSA will continue to increase as the \r\ndemand for meat products does as well in the coming years, driven \r\nby growing incomes in the region (OECD and FAO, 2019). However, \r\nthe increase in animal production has been associated with land \r\ndegradation, triggered by the conversion of native vegetation to \r\npastureland and aggravated by overgrazing and abandoning of the \r\ndegraded pastures (Baumann et  al., 2017; ECLAC, 2018; Muller\u0002Hansen et  al., 2019). Sa et  al. (2017) simulated the adoption of \r\nagricultural systems based on LCA strategies towards 2050. According \r\nto the simulation, the adoption of LCA strategies in the SA region can "


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"Table 12.8 |  Recent studies related to climate-change adaptation of agricultural systems and its determinants in Central and South America region."


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"2018; Donatti et al., 2019), while on the other hand, the sustainability \r\nof large territories that assure their livelihood (Singh and Singh, 2017; \r\nMustonen et al., 2021). In the Andes, ancient technologies increased \r\nthe quantity of crops produced and made it possible to cope with \r\nclimatic changes and water scarcity, while nutrition conditions were \r\nimproved (high confidence) (Lopez Feldman and Hernandez Cortes, \r\n2016; Parraguez-Vergara et  al., 2018; Carrasco-Torrontegui et  al., \r\n2020 food). Also, fire prevention management and protection against \r\nforest and biodiversity loss are recognised as important elements in IK \r\n(Mistry et al., 2016; Bowman et al., 2021)."


id: 14540bef5a50f3785b7756450cd3a89c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Adaptation strategies also concern Indigenous agriculture, that is, the \r\nvast majority of the 44 million Amerindians (CEPAL, 2014). IKLK can \r\nplay an important role in adaptation (Zavaleta et al., 2018). On one \r\nhand, they ensure the conservation of a very rich agrobiodiversity that \r\nis likely to meet the challenges of climate change (high confidence) \r\n(Carneiro da Cunha and Morim de Lima, 2017; Magni, 2017; Emperaire, "


id: b8ba5a9b1a2dcea85927c5e68a14d982
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The inequality, poverty and informality shaping cities in the region \r\nincrease vulnerability to climate change (high confidence) (Romero\u0002Lankao et al., 2014; Rasch, 2017; Filho et al., 2019) and can hinder \r\nadaptation (Section  12.5.7.1), while interventions addressing these "


id: 91011d033e47c569a3220c65f63e862c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Baud, 2014; MINAM Peru, 2016) in addition to the Ley Marco de la \r\nGestion y Prestacion de los Servicios de Saneamiento and Its Code \r\n(Ministerio de Vivienda, Construccion y Saneamiento de Peru, 2017), \r\nallowed potable water companies to add 1% to the bill to guarantee \r\necosystem services, water treatment and reuse with GI. Another 4% \r\nof bill go to developing and implementing adaptation plans and \r\nmeasures (Government of Peru, 2016)."


id: f744c9aa1a3f3ba60c05d683e7e6ea22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Both the shape and activities of a city have an impact on carbon \r\nemissions, adaptation and mitigation opportunities (high confidence) \r\n(Raven et  al., 2018; Satterthwaite et  al., 2018). Combining urgent \r\nmeasures, strategic action (Chu et  al., 2017) on long-term planning \r\nis central for transformative adaptation and avoiding maladaptation \r\n(Filho et  al., 2019). Urban planning, considering climate risk \r\nassessments, and regulation (e.g., land use and building codes), \r\nincluding climate-adapted parameters, are central to coordinating \r\nand fostering private and public investments in adaptation, reducing \r\nrisks related to features of the built environment (infrastructure and \r\nbuildings) and the occupation of risk areas (e.g., threatened by floods \r\nand landslides) (Rosenzweig et al., 2018). A lack of information at the \r\nlocal scale, human resources and clear liability for climate-change \r\nresponse planning can limit adaptation (Aylett, 2015)."


id: 5a5a94a8810b60d4e4c4aed93b87e01e
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"The lack of a high multi-level and intersectoral governance capacity \r\nwith strong multi-player horizontal and vertical coordination and \r\nlong-term support limit adaptation in the region (high confidence) \r\n(Anguelovski et al., 2014; Bai et al., 2016; Chu et al., 2016; Schaller et al., \r\n2016; Miranda Sara et al., 2017). The ability to enrol stakeholders and \r\ninclude community-based initiatives can determine adaptation success, \r\nparticularly considering their impact in the decision-making arena (high \r\nconfidence) (Section  12.5.8.1; Section  6.4; Anguelovski et  al., 2014; \r\nArcher et al., 2014; Chu et al., 2017; Rosenzweig et al., 2018)."


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"Strategic adaptation approaches have been adopted by many cities \r\nin dealing with the multi-level and intersectoral complexity of urban \r\nsystems, with gains in fostering leadership and facing the predominant \r\npattern of uneven urban development in the region (medium \r\nconfidence: limited evidence, high agreement) (Chu et  al., 2017). \r\nMedellin's metropolitan green belt, for example, focuses on problems \r\nsuch as irregular settlements, inequality and poor governance, \r\nformulating programmes and projects of the municipality of Medellin \r\nand the municipalities of the Vale do Aburra in a strategic long-term \r\nplan. Places with informal and precarious settlements were slated to \r\nbe transformed with the belt's integration areas: eco-parks and eco\u0002gardens (Alcaldia de Medellin, 2012; Chu et al., 2017)."


id: 73366c94d7822cf8fd27baa5e093fec2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Informality and precariousness in housing is one of the most sensitive \r\nissues for adaptation in CSA cities (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Satterthwaite et  al., 2018; UN-Habitat, \r\n2018). Housing deficit in 2009, as a regional baseline, estimated \r\nthat 37% of households suffered from quantitative or qualitative \r\ndeficiencies due to the high cost of housing and the incidence of \r\npoverty (Blanco Blanco et  al., 2014; McTarnaghan et  al., 2016; NU \r\nCEPAL et al., 2016; Vargas et al., 2018a; Rojas, 2019)."


id: 89f3542fe92e70b94471470a96812fcd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"New forms of financing and leadership focused on community-based \r\napproaches have been developed to overcome the funding challenge \r\nand enable adaptation in the region (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Castan Broto and Bulkeley, 2013; \r\nArcher et al., 2014; Paterson and Charles, 2019). Systems for measuring, \r\nreporting and verifying adaptation financing, as in Colombia (Guzman \r\net  al., 2018), or a national legislation geared towards adaptation, \r\ncan also help access funds. The Peruvian Law on the Retribution \r\nMechanism of Eco-Systemic Services and Code (Miranda Sara and "


id: e0b61538e49a4cf0d214551b0c4275d7
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"Policies and programmes have been implemented accumulating good \r\npractices and reducing the percentage of population in informal and \r\nprecarious settlements (33.7% in 1990 to 21% in 2014) (NU CEPAL \r\net al., 2016; Satterthwaite et al., 2018; Teferi and Newman, 2018; UN\u0002Habitat, 2018). Slum upgrading and built-environment interventions \r\n(housing and infrastructure improvement and provision) in informal \r\nsettlements can enhance adaptation (high confidence) (Teferi and \r\nNewman, 2018; Nunez Collado and Wang, 2020; Satterthwaite et al., "


id: 2c3f4efc1a16eea5b90a804f7925bdc1
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"2020) while reducing floods, landslides and cascading impacts of \r\nstorms, floods and epidemics, as observed with the 'incremental \r\nhousing approach' in Quinta Monroy (Rojas, 2019) and the 'social \r\nurbanism' in Medellin (Garcia Ferrari et al., 2018)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The climate adaptation plans of several large CSA cities include \r\nefficient land use and occupation planning and urban control systems \r\n(comprising regulation, monitoring), fostering the articulation with \r\nhousing and environmental policy (by means of intersectoral and multi\u0002level governance), inhibiting and reducing the occupation of risk areas \r\n(mainly flooding and landslides risks); increasing population density in \r\nareas already served by infrastructure; expanding slum urbanisation \r\nand technical assistance programmes to improve and expand social \r\nhousing (high confidence) (Municipio del Distrito Metropolitano de \r\nQuito, 2020; Prefeitura Municipal do Salvador, 2020; Municipalidad de \r\nLima, 2021; Prefeitura da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, 2021; Prefeitura do \r\nMunicipio de Sao Paulo, 2021)."


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"assessed focus on mitigation strategies, even when they are labelled \r\nas adaptation measures (da Silva and Buendia, 2016; Di Giulio et al., \r\n2018; Valderrama et al., 2019; Goes et al., 2020)."


id: 229df2c5340f2699144bf66501562aba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"On the municipal scale, among the biggest cities, Sao Paulo, Rio \r\nde Janeiro, Lima and Santiago stand out for including mobility and \r\ntransport as a strategic axis of its climatic plans, though they prioritise \r\nmitigation, while Buenos Aires and Bogota do not delve into the issue \r\nin their plans (Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, 2015; Prefeitura \r\nda Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, 2016; Alcaldia Mayor de Bogota D.C., \r\n2018; Municipalidad de Lima, 2021; Municipalidad de Santiago, 2021; \r\nPrefeitura do Municipio de Sao Paulo, 2021). Most of those same cities \r\nhave sectoral mobility plans, which are key tools in urban resilience. \r\nThose plans, however, do not focus on adaptation actions, instead \r\nemphasising mitigation (Government of Peru, 2005; Gobierno de la \r\nCiudad de Buenos Aires, 2011; Prefeitura do Municipio de Sao Paulo, \r\n2015; Alcaldia Mayor de Bogota D.C., 2017; Ilustre Municipalidad de \r\nSantiago, 2019; Municipio de Rio de Janeiro, 2019)."


id: 18c9020d7d2007035d193ea4fd5f9e6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The most common adaptation strategies include the development of \r\nclimate services such as epidemic forecast tools, integrated climate\u0002health surveillance and observatories and forecasting climate-related \r\ndisasters (floods, heat waves). Geographic information system (GIS) \r\ntechnologies are being used to identify locations where vulnerable \r\npopulations are exposed to climate hazards and associated health \r\nrisks."


id: fd54343f90736be1f6feafb027dbcaf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The measures most directly linked to diminishing risk are those related \r\nto climate services for health (high confidence). Climate services \r\nprovide tailored, sector-specific information from climate forecasts to \r\nsupport decision-making (WHO and WMO, 2016); they allow decision \r\nmakers and practitioners to plan interventions in anticipation of a "


id: e7b7a15418c3237696e189c9bf670f2d
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"Mobility and transport systems play a key role in urban resilience \r\n(high confidence) (Walker et  al., 2014a; Capri et  al., 2016; Espinet \r\net  al., 2016; Lee and Lee, 2016; Ford et  al., 2018; Mehrotra et  al., \r\n2018; Quinn et al., 2018). Examples reported in the scientific literature "


id: 1d2875adfc3e00d3c6f299905fbafc21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"and health authorities meet to review 3-month climate forecasts and \r\nissue statements about the probable impacts on health (Trotman et al., \r\n2018). In Panama, information on dengue is distributed in a monthly \r\nbulletin that is used by health authorities to inform vector control \r\nactivities (McDonald et  al., 2016). Another example is the climate\u0002driven forecast of dengue risk that was produced prior to Brazil's 2014 \r\nFIFA World Cup to inform disease prevention interventions (Lowe \r\net al., 2014, 2016). In Colombia, the Intersectoral National Technical \r\nCommission for Environmental Health publishes a monthly bulletin with \r\nregional weather forecasts and potential effects on health (CONASA, \r\n2019). Paraguay improves epidemiological surveillance and trains \r\nfirst-level health staff via information campaigns on the prevention \r\nof climate-sensitive diseases and promotes health networks with the \r\nparticipation of civil society (Environmental Secretariat of Paraguay, \r\n2011)."


id: d5dbf6db3abdd75d9ff3a17365975977
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"weather/climate event (Mahon et  al., 2019). More recently, climate \r\nservices, such as EWSs and forecast models, have been promoted for \r\nthe health sector (WHO and WMO, 2012, 2016; WMO, 2014; Thomson \r\nand Mason, 2018) and are an important adaptation measure to \r\nreduce the impacts of climate on health (high confidence). To guide \r\nthis process, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) issued \r\na Health Exemplar (Lowe et  al., 2014; WMO, 2014), which aims to \r\nfoster stakeholder engagement between health and climate actors at \r\nall levels to promote the effective use of climate information within \r\nhealth research, policy and practice."


id: 860dc587f76c2cb3deafd1d29f7b67d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"There exist at least 24 EWS in SA to avoid deaths and injuries from \r\nfloods in the countries such as Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, \r\nBrazil, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela (Bravo et  al., 2010; Bidegain, \r\n2014; Moreno et  al., 2014; Davila, 2016; del Granado et  al., 2016; \r\nLopez-Garcia et  al., 2017; Carrizo Sineiro et  al., 2018). A total of \r\n149 emergency prevention and response systems are reported in CA \r\n(UNESCO, 2012). In addition, some countries implement programmes \r\nfor the relocation of families who are in risk condition, like in Bogota \r\nand Medellin, Colombia (World Bank, 2014; Watanabe, 2015)."


id: b259a262e4923c306bb2374f4f1d07b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Climate and health observatories represent a promising strategy that \r\nis being developed at sub-national, national (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) \r\nand regional levels (high confidence) (Munoz et al., 2016; Rusticucci \r\net al., 2020). The Brazilian Observatory of Climate and Health brings \r\ntogether climate and health information for the Amazon region \r\nof Manaus (Barcellos et  al., 2016). At the national level, Brazil has \r\ncreated a climate and health observatory, where information and \r\ndata visualisations are available for various climate-sensitive health \r\nindicators (Ministerio da Saude and FIOCRUZ, 2021)."


id: 2d412c54998d7b6ab3ff995d3146e716
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"One of the most promising climate services for the health sector are \r\nheat and cold early-warning and alert systems (medium confidence). \r\nThese have been developed by the national meteorological institutes \r\nin Peru, Argentina, and Uruguay (Bidegain, 2014). A heat alert system \r\nwas implemented in Argentina in 2017 and daily alerts are issued for \r\n57 localities across the country. A stoplight colour scheme is used to \r\nissue alerts, identifying specific groups at risk and actions to be taken \r\nto reduce the risk (Herrera et al., 2018b)."


id: b59510bcf9483a8679ec145d781aabf4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Vulnerability and risk maps have been widely used as an adaptation \r\nstrategy to understand the potential impacts of climate on health \r\noutcomes both directly (e.g., maps of disease risk) and indirectly (e.g., \r\nmaps of populations vulnerable to climate disasters) (high confidence). \r\nThere are many examples of where climate services have been used \r\nto construct vulnerability maps for health outcomes, including maps \r\nin the aforementioned climate-health observatories. Dengue, malaria \r\nand Zika vulnerability maps using climate, social and environmental \r\ninformation have been developed in Brazil and Colombia (Cunha et al., "


id: ad7265a4f28dd2145eab779d9873afa8
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"The public dissemination of climate-health warnings via bulletins, \r\nwebsites and other outlets can be an adaptation measure to address \r\nclimate change and weather variability to reduce health risks \r\n(high confidence). The information produced is systematised to be \r\ncommunicated to authorities and the general public. The Caribbean \r\nHealth-Climatic Bulletin has been issued quarterly since 2018 to health \r\nministries across the region, including CA and NSA. Regional climate "


id: c0947c12d0ca5ceb5351c1cdc9553b07
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"2016b; Lopez-Alvarez, 2016; Pereda, 2016; IDEAM, 2017). Argentina \r\nfocuses on improving its health system using a climate change risk \r\nmap system as a tool that identifies the risks and allows assessing \r\ntheir management (OPS and WHO, 2018)."


id: 1ebbdef5ddde9e2332885107c8cb76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Diverse adaptation measures are being implemented through public \r\npolicies, private household responses and communal management \r\nthat directly or indirectly reduce the impacts of climate change on \r\nhuman health (high confidence) (Table 12.9). Private and communal \r\nmanagement measures could be considered indirect measures because \r\nthey might be adopted even in the absence of climate change."


id: 2e66741c8964011fc1c5a6e15c8ef4d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Participatory management can be relevant in the case of mosquito\u0002borne disease prevention (e.g., dengue fever or malaria), where the \r\nreduction in mosquito habitat in one area or 'hotspot' can reduce \r\nthe risk for all surrounding households. This approach is also relevant \r\nwhen considering new places where vector-borne diseases can emerge \r\nbecause of changes in climate (Andersson et al., 2015)."


id: ccea8f0e89e8a83e3b421a774b3a9227
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Adaptation strategies implemented by the public sector include a \r\ndiverse suite of strategies ranging from the creation of green spaces \r\nin urban areas, relocation of families located in disaster-prone areas, \r\necosystem restoration and improved access to clean water, among \r\nmany others (high confidence) (Table  12.9). Building GGI has been \r\na popular public adaptation measure to reduce deaths and injuries \r\nbecause of floods (Section 12.5.5.3.2). Infrastructure has been improved \r\nat schools, public buildings and drainage systems in cities such as "


id: 22b86304df93bd7456cc45b718ff335e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Table 12.9 |  Hazards from climate change that impact human health and examples of adaptation strategies proposed or implemented in CSA. Based on McMichael et al. (2006), \r\nMiller et al. (2013a, b, c, d), Hardoy et al. (2014), IPCC (2014), Janches et al. (2014), Lee et al. (2014), Mejia (2014), Sosa-Rodriguez (2014), Vergara et al. (2014), Lemos et al. (2016), \r\nVillamizar et al. (2017), Magoni and Munoz (2018) and Zhao et al. (2019)."


id: 638ab624078fea0bf6e7f4f5bf94aa9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"and health records and the use of Earth observations to forecast climate\u0002sensitive diseases (Fletcher et al., 2021; Wimberly et al., 2021)."


id: c48567c176cd2c4d1e612f441b1a5e81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Bogota, Colombia (World Bank, 2014) and La Paz, Bolivia (Fernandez \r\nand Buss, 2016). In Brazil, channel works were implemented to reduce \r\nthe flooding of the Tiete River, which crosses the metropolitan area \r\nof Sao Paulo; these projects were designed based on simulated flood \r\nscenarios (Hori et al., 2017)."


id: 17d81128be03cbe898c5f1f400597db9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The growing field of implementation science--defined as 'a discipline \r\nfocused on systematically examining the gap between knowledge and \r\naction'--represents another opportunity to address the challenges \r\nand barriers to using climate information for health-sector decision\u0002making (Boyer et  al., 2020). Implementation science in the health \r\nsector in CSA is nascent; research in this area could help to address \r\nbarriers to mainstreaming climate information in the health sector as \r\nan adaptation strategy (Table 12.11; Table SM12.7)."


id: f2bf05c4b23d42112877462dce847785
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"A description of the governance and financing dimensions of the \r\nfeasibility of implementing EWSs is presented in Table  12.11 and \r\nTable SM12.7."


id: c48344396133fc2feb575b54f4945738
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"Despite the proliferation of disaster EWSs in the region, only 37 can be \r\nconsidered operational, because many of these systems do not operate \r\nor function properly or do not meet the requirements that would allow \r\nthem to be considered EWSs (UNESCO, 2012). Sustainable financing \r\nand political support are needed to ensure the functioning of disaster \r\nEWSs (high confidence) (Table  12.11). Several studies identified \r\ndifficulties in implementing disaster EWSs due to a lack of community \r\nengagement and response to the alerts that are issued (del Granado \r\net al., 2016; Lopez-Garcia et al., 2017). To address these challenges, the \r\ndocument 'Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist' provides \r\nguidance for the implementation of a people-centred approach to \r\nearly warning systems, as proposed in the Hyogo Framework for Action \r\n2005-2015 (Wiltshire, 2006)."


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"National Risk Management Plans or National Disaster Response Plans \r\nare tools for adapting to climate change that can help to diminish death \r\nand injuries from disasters (high confidence). These plans are generally \r\npromoted by governments as national instruments that guide the \r\nprocesses of estimating, preventing and reducing disaster risk. Updated \r\nNational Risk Management Plans have been found for Guatemala \r\n(CONRED, 2014), Honduras (COPECO, 2014), El Salvador (Ministry of \r\nHealth of El Salvador, 2017), Costa Rica (CNE, 2016), Ecuador (SGR, \r\n2018), Peru (SGRD et  al., 2014), Argentina (Ministerio de Seguridad \r\nde Argentina, 2018), Bolivia (VIDECI, 2017), Chile (ONEMI, 2015) and \r\nColombia (UNGRD, 2015). It has been shown in Brazil that information "


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"on drought conditions can be used to reduced health impacts of drought \r\nusing a national disaster risk reduction framework (Sena et al., 2016)."


id: 416a66fce1b29a956087c5b5f4c3a684
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 7692
content:
"International agreements aim for climate resilient development \r\npathways where efforts to eradicate poverty, reduce inequality \r\nand promote fair and cross-scalar adaptation and mitigation are \r\nstrengthened. The first and second objectives of the SDGs aim to \r\nreduce poverty, allowing no one to fall through the cracks (UN General \r\nAssembly, 2015). Researchers argue that poverty is mischaracterised \r\nand has multiple dimensions (Castan Broto and Bulkeley, 2013) \r\n(Section 8.1.1), that biodiversity loss, climate change and pollution will \r\nundermine efforts on 80% of assessed SDG targets, that biodiversity \r\nand climate change must be tackled together (Portner et  al., 2021; \r\nUnited Nations Environment Programme, 2021) and due to the COVID \r\ncrisis LAC countries have made uneven progress in terms of meeting \r\nSDGs (high confidence) (ECLAC, 2020)."


id: cf3ae84092824b6cec39883855855da8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 30141
content:
"Climate-change impacts are increasing and exacerbating poverty and \r\nsocial inequalities, affecting those already vulnerable and disfavoured, \r\ngenerating new and interlinked risk and challenging climate resilient \r\ndevelopment pathways (high confidence) (Section 8.2.1.4; Shi et al., \r\n2016; Otto et al., 2017; Johnson et al., 2021). Poverty, high levels of \r\ninequality and pre-existing vulnerabilities can also be worsened by \r\nclimate-change policies (Antwi-Agyei et  al., 2018; IPCC, 2018; Roy \r\net al., 2018; Eriksen et al., 2021). Those already suffering are losing their \r\nlivelihoods and reducing their development options; poor populations \r\nand countries are more vulnerable and have lower adaptive capacity \r\nto climate change compared to rich ones (very high confidence) \r\n(Section 8.5.2.1; Rao et al., 2017)."


id: e4ef7f0ff3f8644e40dad68e55ffd3ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 33502
content:
"Climate change exacerbates pre-existing vulnerability conditions \r\nand can drive societies further away from achieving resilience, equity \r\nand sustainable development (Tanner et  al., 2015b; Bartlett and \r\nSatterthwaite, 2016; Kalikoski et  al., 2018; Barcena et  al., 2020a). \r\nExisting inequalities in the provision and consumption of services are \r\nbound to be exacerbated by future risks and uncertainties associated \r\nwith climate-change scenarios (Miranda Sara et  al., 2017). Climate \r\nchange will be a major obstacle in reducing poverty (high confidence) \r\n(Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016; Allen et al., 2017a; Hallegatte et al., \r\n2018; UN-Habitat, 2018; United Nations Environment Programme, \r\n2021), affecting even wealthier populations that become vulnerable \r\nfacing climate-change scenarios (WGI AR6 Chapter 12, Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021), dragging them into poverty and erasing decades of work \r\nand asset accumulation."


id: 13e4744fdeaf5d83d3c386793c226c58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"High levels of inequality and informality remain the biggest challenges \r\nin terms of adaptation measures being effective (Rosenzweig et al., \r\n2018; Dodman et al., 2019). The interaction of projected impacts with \r\nexisting vulnerabilities in the region (such as hunger, malnutrition \r\nand health inequalities, arising from the region's social, economic \r\nand demographic profile) affects CSA development and well-being in \r\ndifferent ways (Reyer et al., 2017) increasing poverty and inequality \r\nand threatening paths to sustainable development (Section  18.1.1; \r\nReckien et al., 2017)."


id: 2c05c262ab06efea2a4984b2900e070a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 4360
content:
"implementation priorities, but the poor are less able to cope with and \r\nadapt so as to avoid so-called adaptation injustices (high confidence) \r\n(Mansur et al., 2016; Miranda Sara et al., 2017; Reckien et al., 2017; \r\nHardoy et al., 2019)."


id: da125b04f97612c9ae5de565b776ad5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31835
content:
"The uneven enforcement of land use regulations, relocations and \r\nevictions in connection with environmental risk management and \r\nclimate adaptation is a contested issue (Brockington and Wilkie, \r\n2015; Lavell, 2016; Quimbayo Ruiz and Vasquez Rodriguez, 2016a; \r\nQuimbayo Ruiz and Vasquez Rodriguez, 2016b; Anguelovski et  al., \r\n2018; Anguelovski et  al., 2019; Shokry et  al., 2020; Chavez Eslava, \r\n2021; Oliver-Smith, 2021). This suggests that caution in framing \r\nclimate adaptation and resilience related interventions equally benefits \r\neveryone (high confidence) (Brown, 2014; Chu et al., 2016; Connolly, \r\n2019; Romero-Lankao and Gnatz, 2019; Johnson et al., 2021) and that \r\nequality and justice dimensions should be incorporated into decision\u0002making (very high confidence) (Section 18.1.2.2; Agyeman et al., 2016; \r\nMeerow and Newell, 2016; Romero-Lankao et  al., 2016; Shi et  al., \r\n2016; Reckien et al., 2017; Leal Filho et al., 2021)."


id: 6db4a5fa01f3fcef4a095e4f5f76d8cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14866
content:
"Poor rural households in marginal territories that have a low productive \r\npotential and/or that are far from markets and infrastructure are \r\nhighly vulnerable to climate-change impacts and could easily fall into \r\npoverty-environment traps (high confidence) (Barbier and Hochard, \r\n2019; Heikkinen, 2021). Climate change is one of the main threats to \r\nrural livelihoods in CA, since agriculture is a pillar of rural economies \r\nand food security, especially in the poorest sectors, which rely on \r\nsubsistence crops in areas with low soil fertility and rainfall seasonality \r\n(Bouroncle et al., 2017)."


id: 2f68492533c8d638bde3ecf163c15b37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4880
content:
"Adaptation, disaster risk reduction and social and poverty reduction \r\npolicies contribute to sustainable development (Hallegatte et al., 2018; \r\nSatterthwaite et al., 2020) and improve prospects for climate-resilient \r\npathways (Section 18.1.1). Without pro-poor interventions, adaptation \r\noptions could reinforce poverty cycles (Kalikoski et al., 2018). Secure \r\nlocations, good-quality infrastructure, services and housing are critical \r\nto reducing risks from extreme climate events (Satterthwaite et  al., \r\n2018; Dodman et al., 2019)."


id: 57565e1d59af05e6db421ff8fabe197c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11232
content:
"Impacts are likely to occur simultaneously, exacerbating the challenges \r\nfaced by the poorer segments of society, but also creating new groups \r\nat risk (Miranda Sara et al., 2016; Rosenzweig et al., 2018; Dodman \r\net  al., 2019). The material basis for poor and vulnerable urban and \r\nrural populations' adaptations is in a critical state across the CSA \r\nregion, magnifying extreme events' impacts, making CSA less resilient. \r\nConsequences in terms of social vulnerability and livelihood will be \r\nwidely felt, inasmuch as the security and protection of critical assets \r\n(housing, infrastructure and water, land and ecosystem services) \r\ncontinue to lag behind. Small businesses are usually located within \r\nhomes, and if the home is affected, so is the business (Stein and Moser, \r\n2015), adding another layer of vulnerability for this population."


id: f3ba1737e5edafa68267c96202160396
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 35861
content:
"Poor and most vulnerable groups have limited political influence, \r\nfewer capacities and opportunities to participate in decision and \r\npolicymaking and are less able to leverage government support to \r\ninvest in adaptation measures linked with poverty, inequality and \r\nvulnerability reduction (very high confidence) (Chapter 8; Miranda \r\nSara et al., 2017; Reyer et al., 2017; Kalikoski et al., 2018; Dodman \r\net al., 2019; Satterthwaite et al., 2020)."


id: 7e2e7e32aa34664bfd889196c1878f08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17416
content:
"As productivity declines, outside sources of income are sought, and \r\npeople rely on resource extraction for subsistence and for income, \r\nfurther increasing their vulnerability to climate change (Barbier and \r\nHochard, 2018a). Cycles of declining productivity, environmental \r\ndegradation, wildlife poaching and trafficking, the search for outside \r\nemployment, reduced incomes, livelihood opportunities and poverty \r\nhave been observed in rural El Salvador, Honduras, Amazonia (Lopez\u0002Feldman, 2014; Graham, 2017; Barbier and Hochard, 2018a). The \r\nprotection of communities that defend and are dependent on wildlife \r\nand natural environments requires immediate attention. Latin America \r\nis home to eight million forest-dependent people, which represents \r\nabout 82% of the region's rural extreme poor (FAO and UNEP, 2020)."


id: b7acf8dcf7ce3b1039522773b55757b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26427
content:
"Existing imbalances in power relations, corruption, historic structural \r\nproblems and high levels of risk tolerance (Miranda Sara et al., 2016) \r\nconstitute climate governance barriers to implementing more effective \r\nadaptation and preventive measures. Corruption, particularly in the \r\nconstruction and infrastructure sectors, has proven to be a barrier \r\nto CSA development, even reproducing and reconstructing the same \r\nrisks (French and Mechler, 2017; Vergara, 2018; Durand, 2019). Critical \r\ninfrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable \r\nareas (Calil et  al., 2017; Escalante Estrada and Miranda, 2020), \r\ndemonstrating the persistence of maladaptation and adaptation \r\ndeficit (Villamizar et al., 2017)."


id: fe6f8d2b98910d69e20feb00efb83289
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 37571
content:
"Poverty and disaster risk reduction interlinked with climate-change \r\nadaptation share a focus on identifying and acting on local risks and \r\ntheir root causes, even though they view risk through different lenses \r\n(very high confidence) (IPCC, 2014; Allen et al., 2017a; Satterthwaite \r\net  al., 2018, 2020; UN-Habitat, 2018). Construction of climate \r\nknowledge and risk perceptions affect decision-making to define "


id: 97e8bf8cca8173e481fa9103fc9cfb14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21418
content:
"and Moser, 2015; Kalikoski et  al., 2018; Satterthwaite et  al., 2018, \r\n2020; Stein et  al., 2018; Hardoy et  al., 2019; Stein, 2019; Miranda \r\nSara, 2021). Adaptation measures have trade-offs that need to be \r\nacknowledged and acted upon, most importantly by developing the \r\ncapacity to convene discussions that draw in all key actors and commit \r\nthem to do things differently (Almeida et al., 2018; Hardoy et al., 2019). \r\nCollaborative approaches integrate groups and organisations (e.g., \r\nsaving, women's groups, clubs, vendor associations, cooperatives) \r\ncontributing to the exchange of information to visibilise people's \r\nneeds, generate safety networks and negotiate for improvements and \r\nenhance adaptive capacity."


id: bb3b123495c18d27ae5c004887aed7f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27002
content:
"There is also increasing evidence of human mobility associated with \r\nclimate change and disaster risk (IOM, 2021) and the adoption of \r\nsustainable tourism, diversification of livelihood strategies, climate \r\nforecasts, appropriate construction techniques, neighbourhood layout, \r\nintegral urban upgrading initiatives, territorial and urban planning, \r\nregulatory frameworks, water harvesting and NbS (Stein and Moser, \r\n2014; Hardoy and Mastrangelo, 2016; Almeida et  al., 2018; Barbier \r\nand Hochard, 2018a; Desmaison et al., 2018; Satterthwaite et al., 2018, \r\n2020; Villafuerte et al., 2018; Hidalgo, 2020). Mostly, socioeconomical \r\nand sociopolitical factors show that safety and continuity measures \r\nare critical enablers of adaptation."


id: cdea0901fcbd49b39307143921e5c589
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29920
content:
"At the municipal level, a study in CA highlighted that adaptive capacity \r\nin rural areas is associated with the satisfaction of basic needs (safe \r\ndrinking water, school, quality dwelling, gender parity index), access to \r\nresources for innovation and action (road density, economically active \r\npopulation with non-agricultural employment and rural demographic \r\ndependency ratio) and access to credit and technical support \r\n(Bouroncle et al., 2017)."


id: 141c6ce11354d8a640784683753ab4ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 674
content:
"Effective adaptation can be achieved by addressing pre-existing \r\ndevelopment deficits, particularly the needs and priorities of informal \r\nsettlements and economies (Revi et  al., 2014; UN-Habitat, 2018). \r\nThere is urgency in making sure that social systems are better able to \r\nrespond to climate-related risks and increase their adaptive capacity \r\n(Lemos et al., 2016), focusing on path dependency, lock-ins and poor \r\nspecific needs (Leal Filho et al., 2021)."


id: e21b8bcb2a37a786f9fc089b9dc42358
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33069
content:
"The linkages between climate adaptation and poverty are not clearly \r\naddressed at the national level (Kalikoski et al., 2018). A revision of \r\nsome NDCs presented by CSA countries (https://unfccc.int) shows \r\nthat NDCs are developed with almost no connection to poverty and \r\nlivelihoods. Exceptions include Bolivia, whose NDC developed the \r\n'good life' concept as an alternative development pathway, supporting \r\nsustainable livelihoods as a means to eradicate poverty. Honduras \r\nasserts that climate action should improve living conditions. Peru \r\ndefined a poverty and vulnerability reduction approach. Finally, El \r\nSalvador conditioned its NDCs to macroeconomic stability, economic \r\ngrowth and poverty reduction. A sustainable development approach \r\npermeates the proposed actions for sectors such as energy, agriculture, \r\ntransport, water and forestry."


id: d506eabcce8ddc8a6b8ee14672a71a83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31047
content:
"Tensions and conflicts may result from differing perceptions and \r\nknowledge of vulnerabilities and risk, which can hinder the acceptance \r\nof adaptation measures or the implementation of stronger adaptive \r\nor preventive actions (Miranda Sara et al., 2016). There is a need to \r\nbetter understand complex interactions and community responses to \r\nclimate change in the Amazonian and Andean regions. Climate-change \r\nhotspot impacts have shown that poverty reduction measures alone \r\nwere not enough to improve adaptive capacity because people will \r\nnot necessarily invest in their enhancement (Pinho et al., 2014; Filho \r\net al., 2016; Nelson et al., 2016; Lapola et al., 2018; Zavaleta et al., \r\n2018). Current adaptation strategies and methods may be neglecting \r\ncultural values, even eroding them, in the Peruvian Andes, indicating \r\nthat success of adaptation practices is tied to deep cultural values \r\n(Walshe and Argumedo, 2016)."


id: 39c7218ff5a1d365033f51537622d86f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6466
content:
"Adaptive capacity is linked to addressing climate-related risks (specific \r\ncapacity) and structural deficits (generic capacity) and synergies, and a \r\nstrategic balance between both is necessary (Eakin et al., 2014; Lemos \r\net al., 2016). Adaptation institutional context can undermine one form \r\nof capacity with repercussions for the other compromising overall \r\nadaptation and sustainable development (Eakin et al., 2014)."


id: 1a3d72d275a703d9e6becc00a635b0b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1594
content:
"The literature assessing the effectiveness of pro-poor or community\u0002based adaptation practices and livelihood options continues to be \r\nweak, though such practices and options are being increasingly \r\ndocumented, as in AR5 (Magrin et al., 2014). A great variety of measures \r\nand financial instruments are being applied to strengthen and protect \r\nlivelihoods and assets: collective insurance schemes, micro-credit, \r\nfinancial instruments for transferring risks, agricultural insurance and \r\nPES (Davila, 2016; Hardoy and Velasquez, 2016; Lemos et al., 2016; \r\nPorras et  al., 2016; Kalikoski et  al., 2018). Small-scale household \r\nbusinesses in poor neighbourhoods develop adaptation strategies \r\nto keep operations going, showing how household-level adaptation \r\nstrategies are multi-purpose (Stein et al., 2018; Stein, 2019). There are \r\nemerging interinstitutional communities of practice whose aim is to \r\nshare practices and lessons learned (ECLAC, 2013, 2015, 2019a)."


id: bdf3835e642e091d4a5209b4d638a76f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27443
content:
"Limits to adaptation include access to land, territory and resources \r\n(Mesclier et  al., 2015), poor labour opportunities coupled with \r\nknowledge gaps, weak multi-actor coordination, and lack of effective \r\npolicies and supportive frameworks (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021)."


id: 66ae543a227a59825f7f070527253476
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13746
content:
"Low participation of women in income-earning opportunities contrasts \r\nwith their role in unpaid activities (ECLAC, 2019b). Despite the progress \r\nthat has been made, gender differences in labour markets remain an \r\nunjustifiable form of inequality (OIT, 2019), and women easily fall back \r\non the informal labour market during crisis situations, such as those \r\ngenerated by climate events (Collodi et al., 2020)."


id: 83f61fb87b725ad3ad3d3942909f238a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18297
content:
"Participatory processes are leveraging adaptation measures throughout \r\nCSA; they contribute to the prioritisation of specific adaptation \r\nmeasures as well as the strengthening of local capacities. Results of \r\nparticipatory processes show how climate adaptation needs to be part \r\nof larger transformation processes to that have vulnerable communities \r\nat the center and reduce vulnerability drivers (Stein and Moser, 2015; \r\nStein et al., 2018; Stein, 2019). Stronger national policies interlinking \r\npoverty and inequality reduction to adaptation considering the coupled \r\nhuman-environmental systems to comprehend poor and vulnerable \r\ngroups' capacity to adapt are urgently needed."


id: ad804bcbbedd83bff506bd8c26e3b6ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24840
content:
"Public policies related to adaptation must be seen in the wider \r\ncontext of environmental policies and governance, as they usually \r\naddress climatic processes in synergy with other environmental \r\nand socioeconomic drivers (very high confidence) (Ding et al., 2017; \r\nAldunce Ide et  al., 2020; Comision Europea, 2020; Lampis et  al., \r\n2020; Scoville-Simonds et  al., 2020). However, some people point \r\nto education, sanitation or social assistance, among other sectors \r\n(Bonatti et  al., 2019). In Brazil, for example, it would be difficult to \r\nclearly separate climate-change adaptation and urban policies (high \r\nconfidence) (PBMC, 2016; Barbi and da Costa Ferreira, 2017; Marques \r\nDi Giulio et al., 2017; Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica, 2018; Checco \r\nand Caldas, 2019; Canil et al., 2020)."


id: 88293e6d8e68794d258bcda43dd54882
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18943
content:
"Many public policies related to climate change have become symbolic, \r\nin conflict with prevailing economic policies and practices (medium \r\nconfidence: low evidence, high agreement). Urban adaptation plans \r\ncan be in conflict with other policies, and there may exist insufficient \r\nsupport in multiple areas such as social attitudes and behaviour, \r\nknowledge, education and human capital, finance, governance, \r\ninstitutions and policy (Villamizar et  al., 2017; Koch, 2018). Some \r\npolicies around climate-related displacements and migrants have been \r\nconsidered in NDCs (Priotto and Salvador Aruj, 2017; Yamamoto et al., \r\n2018; de Salles Cavedon-Capdeville et al., 2020)."


id: 6fc30d999f19f7674e6500d1ef227c73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15209
content:
"Because there are asymmetries among populations regarding the \r\nvulnerability and benefits of adaptation, along the lines of gender, \r\nage, socioeconomic conditions and ethnicity, it has been noticed that \r\nadaptation policies and programmes must be adequate to diverse \r\nconditions and actors (very high confidence) (Kaijser and Kronsell, \r\n2014; Walshe and Argumedo, 2016; Baucom and Omelsky, 2017; \r\nHarvey et al., 2018)."


id: 225ce75b9937de685243c088e6b786d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2853
content:
"of the environment and delve into issues of democracy and resource \r\ncontrol (Martinez-Alier et al., 2018)."


id: ee36494993512ea7e4358126de9f1858
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34947
content:
"Many social movements address adaptation to climate change. Some \r\nengage and participate in policy and planning, often producing good \r\nresults at the local level. In contrast, top-down approaches without \r\ncitizen or community participation have shown to be less effective \r\n(high confidence) (Krellenberg and Katrin, 2014; Nagy et al., 2014b; \r\nStein and Moser, 2014; Ruiz-Mallen et  al., 2015; Sherman et  al., \r\n2015; Waylen et al., 2015; Bizikova et al., 2016; Chelleri et al., 2016; \r\nMerlinsky, 2016; Villamizar et al., 2017)."


id: 7df1d098f08b34328b6a4a3a7ba0e7d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17389
content:
"Some conflicts in which the direct biophysical impacts of climate \r\nchange play a major role can unleash social protests and strengthen \r\nsocial movements (Section  12.6.4). In Cartagena, since 2010, the \r\nincrease in precipitation has increasingly impacted the barrio\r\nPolicarpa, promoprting residents to call for solutions to the problems \r\ncaused by the coupled effect of flooding and industrial pollution. Also, \r\nin El Cambray II, in Guatemala City, in 2015 a nearby hill collapsed, \r\ncausing the deaths of 280 people, 70 missing and the destruction of \r\nhundreds of homes. The affected community entered into a conflict \r\nwith the municipality demanding resettlement and a reform of land\u0002use planning (Stein Heinemann, 2018)."


id: 75ff084f953b751f76a84672fbe8a0c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16164
content:
"However, women are not always the more vulnerable group. While in a \r\nbroad sense climate-change impacts women more severely, there are \r\nsituations where they have reacted, adapted better to or been more \r\nresilient. Grassroots women self-help groups can be active agents \r\nof change for their communities, designing and delivering gender\u0002responsive adaptation solutions (Huairou Commission, 2019). Some \r\nstudies suggest that women establish friendlier relationships with the \r\nenvironment and towards natural resources; studies on masculinity and \r\nenvironment confirm this tendency (Brough et al., 2016). In a multi\u0002country study, some female-headed households tend to be slightly \r\nless vulnerable and more resilient than male-headed households, \r\nthough some exceptions were found among sub-groups (Andersen \r\net al., 2017). In Chile, women are more likely to modernise irrigation "


id: da500f233a9f9910a855926fb934d75d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Perceptions tend to be different in rural and urban areas (Sherman et al., \r\n2015). In rural areas, it largely relates to temperature rise and changes \r\nin rainfall patterns, changes in agriculture (pests, calendars), biodiversity \r\nloss, solar radiation or changes in the oceans, and their impacts are \r\nsometimes related or even more attributed to socioeconomic and \r\nenvironmental drivers, as well as to negative financial outcomes (high \r\nconfidence) (Infante and Infante, 2013; Postigo, 2014; Jacobi et al., 2015; \r\nBarrucand et al., 2017; Harvey et al., 2018; Martins and Gasalla, 2018; \r\nMeldrum et al., 2018; Cordoba Vargas et al., 2019; Leroy, 2019; Viguera \r\net al., 2019; Gutierrez et al., 2020; Iniguez-Gallardo et al., 2020; Lambert \r\nand Eise, 2020). In such places as Amazonia, perception increases "


id: d1fd2700be883954b9e687db9d0a366a
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"underlying reason for the lack of a job or income is rarely examined \r\nand at times may be related to climatic hazards."


id: 8d042efa82c237ab581420588ece9073
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"and infrastructure, and gender appears to be an important element \r\nin drought adaptation (Roco et al., 2016). A change to agroecological \r\npractices has improved gender equality and adaptive capacity to \r\nclimate change (Caceres-Arteaga et al., 2020)."


id: e1592fbfc99e52b9fb3fdf22ec617579
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Migration most often originates in rural areas, with people moving to \r\nother rural or urban areas within their home countries (Table Cross\u0002Chapter Box MIGRATE 1 in Chapter 7). In the Amazon, approximately \r\n80% of the population are concentrated in cities due to rural-urban \r\nmigrations in search of better income, livelihoods and services, in cases \r\nassociated with extreme floods and droughts (Pinho et  al., 2015). In \r\nEcuador, environmental variables are most likely to enhance international \r\nthan internal migration (Gray and Bilsborrow, 2013). Hurricanes have \r\nbeen seen as positive triggers for international migration in CA (Spencer \r\nand Urquhart, 2018). The highlands of Peru see different patterns, \r\nincluding daily circular migration to combine the scarce income from \r\nagricultural production with urban income, rather than abandoning farm \r\nland (Milan and Ho, 2014; Zimmerer, 2014; Bergmann et al., 2021)."


id: 3839dc3398a1dfd32914a993758d0fc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Recent studies emphasise that a gender approach to social inequalities \r\nought to move beyond just looking at men and women as experiencing \r\nimpacts in a differentiated manner; rather, an intersectional analysis \r\nilluminates how different individuals and groups relate differently to \r\nclimate change due to their situatedness in power structures based on \r\ncontext-specific and dynamic social categorisations (high confidence) \r\n(Kaijser and Kronsell, 2014; Djoudi et al., 2016; Thompson-Hall et al., \r\n2016; Olivera et  al., 2021). Thus, the relationship between gender \r\nand adaptation demands an analytical framework that connects \r\nenvironmental problems with social inequalities in a complex way \r\n(Godfrey, 2012). An intersectional approach helps to better capture \r\nthe diversity of adaptive strategies that men and women adopt vis-a\u0002vis climate change. Particular constellations of race, gender, class, age \r\nor nationality reveal more complex realities (high confidence)."


id: 7b6779b5a27fb54b7311af452380af54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Some areas are more likely to generate climatic migration: the Andes, \r\nthe dry areas of Amazonia, northern Brazil and northern countries in \r\nCA (high confidence). Northeastern Brazil will lose population that \r\nwill move to the south, deepening existing inequalities (Oliveira and \r\nPereda, 2020). In a study of eight countries around the world, including \r\nGuatemala and Peru, a link was found between rainfall variability \r\nand food insecurity, which could lead to migration in areas of high \r\nprevalence of rainfed agriculture and low diversification (Warner and \r\nAfifi, 2014). In CA, younger individuals are more likely to migrate in \r\nresponse to hurricanes and especially to droughts (Baez et al., 2017)."


id: 2759d309029c9429aacce50490685b20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"The perception of gradual changes lowers the likelihood of internal \r\nmigration, while sudden-onset events increase movement (Koubi et al., \r\n2016). On the other hand, it has been seen that extreme events like "


id: 5af5d236264b9482e0a6460d2f040f4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Migration is often the last resort for rural communities facing water \r\nstress problems (Magrin et al., 2014; Ruano and Milan, 2014). In Bolivia, \r\nglacial retreat has not triggered new migration flows and had a limited \r\nimpact on the existing migratory patterns (Kaenzig, 2015). In SA, \r\nclimatic variability increases the likelihood of interprovince migration, \r\nrather than trapping populations. In a study of interprovincial migration \r\nmotivated by temperature, an exception arose in Bolivia, and even if \r\nthat could suggest an immobilised population (Thiede et al., 2016), it is \r\nnot clear whether they want to stay and adapt. In some cases, people \r\nwant to move but wait for relocation until after the climate-related \r\ndisasters have subsided (Priotto and Salvador Aruj, 2017)."


id: a9183a0370a2cd3578ad7fa1e9786341
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Climate financing in CSA is mainly focused on mitigation actions (high \r\nconfidence). In SA and the Caribbean, 73% (USD 2579  million) of \r\nfunding to date has supported mitigation. Only 21% (USD 761 million) \r\nof the funding supports adaptation projects, and the remaining \r\n4% (USD 217  million) supports multi-focus projects. Of the 51 new \r\nprojects in SA and the Caribbean approved in 2018-2019, the GCF \r\nfinanced USD 508 million over ten projects. Amazon Fund was next \r\nwith USD 81 million for 10 projects. While the GCF focuses on large \r\nand transformative projects and programmes, and in connection with \r\nbroader reform of the policy framework in the region, the Amazon \r\nFund targets smaller project interventions."


id: 853b6317d8dc412b5be95d73fa47c039
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"According to UNFCCC, Latin America and the Caribbean, for \r\nthe period 2015-2016, obtained 22% of climate financing from \r\nmultilateral climate funds. In this section we use data from https://\r\nclimatefundsupdate.org/data-dashboard, and most of the reported \r\ninformation for Latin American and the Caribbean includes Mexico, "


id: 6bd7803122aa8d37eebf5f901b52b375
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 14589
content:
"COVID-19 recovery plans can have synergistic effects for climate-change \r\nadaptation (medium confidence: low evidence, high agreement). A "


id: 974b758d32b488222a9d9ed0b1e583c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"social capital, intangible capital and natural capital assets (Zenghelis \r\net  al., 2020), consistent with global goals on climate change. Finally, \r\nany recovery package, including climate-friendly recovery, is unlikely to \r\nbe implemented unless it also addresses existing societal and political \r\nconcerns--such as poverty alleviation, inequality and social inclusion--\r\nwhich vary from country to country."


id: 298aa8e46725fe1ee8efb162b2ca59fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"This section integrates, in Table 12.10 as follows, the sectoral assessment \r\nof adaptation options (Sections 12.5.1-12.5.8) with the eight key risks \r\nassessed in the region (Section 12.4). Table 12.10 presents a list of the \r\nsummarised adaptation options, which are detailed in their adaptation \r\nsections, from Section 12.5.1 to Section 12.5.8 in this chapter."


id: 17fba36fbd815e4a71e3e27def6d8e84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Some sectors are represented by abbreviations: Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services (T&F ecosystems); ocean and coastal ecosystems and their services (\r\necosystems); food, fibre and other ecosystem products (food); cities, settlements and key infrastructure (cities); poverty, livelihood and sustainable development (poverty and \r\ncross-cutting issues in the human dimension (human dimensions)."


id: 62400b18f7f7f1218d93840f0991ab18
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"Another key barrier is that relatively few institutions in the region \r\nhave the human technical and administrative capacity to implement \r\nand operate an EWS. Regional platforms may provide a solution for \r\ntechnical assistance at national levels."


id: 9b61f7676459775cf175dba7c8c9b15e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"This section assesses the feasibility of selected adaptations options by \r\nsector, relevant for CSA, in five dimensions (economic, technological, \r\ninstitutional, social, environmental and geophysical), according to the \r\nmethodology developed by Singh et al. (2020a). Table 12.11 shows the \r\nsummary of results and Table SM12.7 the details of the assessment \r\nand the supporting literature."


id: c4d660c7e0ff2b98033d6d39e19c1549
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"On the other hand, the economic dimensions faced relatively few \r\nbarriers, although the initial costs of designing, implementing, \r\nequipping and maintaining the system are a potential barrier for health\u0002related sectors with reduced budgets. However, the health benefits and \r\neconomic savings (due to averted epidemics or damage from disasters) \r\nmay offset these costs. The resilience built into the health sector by \r\nthese systems may be applicable to other economic sectors that could \r\nbenefit from the early warning of an immenent extreme event and \r\nassociated health impacts."


id: f9ebbaacb9d94414f7e3066a7c030551
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"For agrifood systems, the adoption of agroforestry provides for \r\nmore diverse and sustainable agricultural production, where farmers \r\nmaintain or improve their current production by incorporating suitable \r\ntrees that ameliorate climatic conditions. Thus, in the same unit of \r\nland, these systems incorporate exotic tree species or managed native \r\nforests into farming systems allowing for the simultaneous production \r\nof trees, crops and livestock with different spatial arrangements \r\nor temporal sequences. On the other hand, it is recognised that the \r\ninitial investment and time until trees start to produce may create \r\nan economic vulnerability. Therefore, there is a need to design \r\nadequate programmes and allocate resources for agroforestry system \r\nimplementation and technical assistance and training (medium \r\nconfidence). Also, some market schemes such as PES and certification \r\ncan help to reduce this vulnerability."


id: 98a425f63ed3d032c23f990a8bab4ca6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"For the water sector, geophysical and economic dimensions do not \r\npose a major barrier thanks to the potential reduction of flood hazard \r\nexposure, physical-technical viability of project implementation, \r\ndifferent suitable economic mechanisms for joint public-private \r\nfinancing and more efficient water use. However, limited institutional \r\ncapacities and the social-environmental impacts of large water \r\ninfrastructure (Section  12.5.3) reduce the institutional, social, \r\nenvironmental and, to some extent, technological feasibility. This may \r\nbe a potential barrier to the adaptive approach of multi-use water \r\nstorage (medium confidence)."


id: 7d3fe1b022f3a4b281e75b1e5ebfc948
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"For the health sector, we assessed the barriers and facilitators for the \r\nimplementation of climate-driven EWSs under natural extreme events \r\nand epidemic situations. We found institutional dimensions to be \r\npotential barriers. These included the legal and regulatory feasibility, \r\ninstitutional capacity and administrative feasibility, transparency and \r\npolitical acceptability (high confidence). The fewest barriers were \r\nidentified for the economic and environmental dimensions."


id: f28bda8893529294baf69a932efc60c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"In the terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem sector, we assessed the \r\nfeasibility of implementing EbA options in the CSA region. Given that \r\nEbA encompasses a wide range of projects, techniques and political \r\nand socioeconomic arrangements, extreme care should be taken when \r\napplying these general findings to particular cases. EbA can enhance \r\nfood sovereignty and carbon stocks and foster SDGs by protecting and \r\nrestoring ecosystems' health and productivity. EbA is a strategy that \r\nfrequently involves bottom-up decision-making and local communities' \r\nempowerment and usually contributes to inequality reduction. EbA "


id: 4932908f08a579c8ff2fba1ba4cf8a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"One of the main institutional challenges is the lack of policy with \r\nclimate-health linkages. Opportunities include a national plan for the \r\nhealth sector to address the impacts of climate change by formalising \r\ncollaborations via agreements memoranda of understanding (MOUs). "


id: f59b77c508c89e0b0cd567b34797c7d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"tends to benefit vulnerable groups, but aspects such as the impact on \r\nsocioeconomic inequalities when implemented should be taken into \r\naccount."


id: e6f95a90245c459d98edb17c102f8a56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"areas, as well as natural ecosystems, in the peripheries. Many of the \r\nnew neighbourhoods were established through land invasions or \r\ninformal markets, in many cases over steep slopes, in water sources \r\nand agricultural or conservation areas (high confidence) (Cuvi, 2015; \r\nGomez Salazar and Cuvi, 2016). That exponential population growth, \r\ncoupled with urban sprawl, poses many challenges to the city, \r\nincluding those related to climate change."


id: fce978ba54c87c8e8fbe0f2f131ee4f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"In general, EbA does not require advanced technologies for local \r\ncommunities. However, limitations in technical assistance and \r\nfunding for specific key technologies and training may act as a barrier \r\nfor EbA adoption (medium confidence). EbA practices can reduce \r\nrisk in several ways by increasing awareness among communities \r\nand providing food diversity and production. EbA is recognised as a \r\ndesirable policy for most stakeholders in CSA, particularly because \r\nas a strategy it incorporates environmental and social concerns. \r\nNonetheless, it is important that all stakeholders agree on the \r\ngoals and methods for EbA to be effective. A lack of institutional \r\ncoordination, clear goals and strategies were identified as a potential \r\nbarrier for EbA implementation. EbA is heavily based in local and IK, \r\nas well as academic ecological knowledge."


id: 481fb298ecb0d7d3854ff9c49d32266d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"For the adaptation options analysed, significant barriers and mixed \r\neffects were observed for the institutional dimension, which indicates \r\nthe relevance of the design and implementation of public policies \r\nand institutional arrangements for effective adaptation in the \r\nregion. Considering the results, there is a need to advance initiatives, \r\nprogrammes and projects that facilitate adaptation to climate \r\nchange. In the same way, barriers were apparent in the technological \r\ndimension, which indicates the importance of increasing access and \r\ndiffusion of appropriate techniques and technologies in order to face \r\nthe challenges of climate change in the region."


id: cd2707a3b42e74662a1f7d78d2f8b76f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 29830
content:
"NbS are related to the maintenance, enhancement and restoration of \r\nbiodiversity and ecosystems as a means of addressing multiple concerns \r\nsimultaneously (Kabisch et  al., 2016). NbS can trigger sustainability \r\ntransitions. For example, the conservation and restoration of natural \r\necosystems are prone to promote synergy between mitigation, \r\nadaptation and sustainable development. EbA can be seen as a type \r\nof NbS deployed in response to climate-change vulnerability and risk \r\n(Greenwalt et  al., 2018), combining the objectives of reducing the \r\nvulnerability of human systems and increasing the resilience of natural \r\nsystems (IPCC, 2014)."


id: e531107312737eb3a077d54217cc5690
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The Municipal Quito District in Ecuador covers 4235 km2\r\n of \r\nmountainous territory that ranges from 500 to 5000 MASL. That \r\nterritory has followed a pattern of urbanisation common in Latin \r\nAmerica: its population has increased from around 500,000 people \r\nin the 1970s to nearly 3 million inhabitants by 2020, of which 80% \r\nlive in urban areas (Municipio del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, \r\n2016). A massive inflow of people immigrated in the early 1970s \r\ndue to various causes, including the search for the rents created as \r\na result of the oil boom in the Ecuadorian Amazon, better working \r\nconditions, health, education and cultural services, in comparison with \r\nthe rural areas or in mid-sized cities. As a result, the city underwent \r\nexponential growth, claiming valuable agricultural and forestry "


id: 51efd1e8bb9ccb11114438c777e0c1af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"The second highlighted initiative is the AGRUPAR (Participatory \r\nUrban Agriculture) programme, launched as a public initiative in \r\n2002 initially with international cooperation funds. It was aimed at \r\nproviding assistance to poorer urban and peri-urban populations, to \r\ninitiate and manage orchards as well as domestic animals such as \r\nchickens and guinea pigs, with the goal of promoting self-sustenance \r\nand commerce. AGRUPAR provides and finances training, seeds and "


id: 53f88cdc12ab675016dba059b801b5a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 10672
content:
"2.6.2 Anthropogenic Soils, an Option for Mitigation \r\nand Adaptation to Climate Change in Central and \r\nSouth America. Learning from the \"Terras Pretas \r\nde Indio\" in the Amazon"


id: 78c8505c8ea937d13853ae3d77585ba0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"seedlings, greenhouses, certifications and marketing support and \r\nspaces where farmers can sell directly their products to consumers. In \r\n2016, AGRUPAR gave assistance to more than 4000 farmers managing \r\norchards of various scales that combined produce, more than 500 \r\ntonnes annually. The programme has direct impacts on nutrition, \r\ngeneration of work for women, production of healthy food, reduction \r\nof runoff, recycling of organic waste and social cohesion, among others \r\n(very high confidence) (Thomas, 2014; Cuvi, 2015; Rodriguez-Duenas \r\nand Rivera, 2016; Clavijo Palacios and Cuvi, 2017)."


id: 616bb738f6b8242a7fa0796e2a41bd53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Amazonian dark earths (ADEs), also known as Terras Pretas de Indio, \r\nare anthropogenic soils derived from the activities associated with \r\nthe settlements and agricultural practices of pre-Hispanic societies \r\nin the Amazon (Woods and McCann, 1999; Lehmann et  al., 2003; \r\nSombroek et  al., 2003). Most of the ADEs identified so far are 500 \r\nto 2500  years old (de Souza et  al., 2019). According to Maezumi \r\net al. (2018a), polyculture agroforestry allowed for the development \r\nof complex societies in the eastern Amazon around 4500 years ago. \r\nAgroforestry was combined with the cultivation of multiple crops and \r\nthe active and progressive increase in the proportion of edible plant \r\nspecies in the forest, along with hunting and fishing. The formation \r\nof ADEs as a result of these activities served as the basis for a food \r\nproduction system that supported a growing human population in the \r\narea (Maezumi et al., 2018a)."


id: ad66ae1a2b9a6f79121e32a325d6f016
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content:
"Accumulation of organic residues and low-intensity fire management \r\nare recognised key elements in ADE formation. ADEs originating \r\naround settlements show a relatively high density of ceramic artefacts \r\nand are called terras pretas. They present a higher content of calcium \r\nand phosphorus than those originating from agricultural activities, \r\nwhich are known as terras mulatas (Hecht, 2003)."


id: ef44b96861ec9e918d329d89f6b99f9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"There is a robust and growing body of research from various disciplines \r\nthat assigns a high relevance to ADEs in the region. It has been shown \r\nthrough archaeological and palaeoclimatic data that Amazonian \r\nsocieties that based their agricultural management on Terras Pretas \r\nde Indio were more resilient to the changing climate due to increased \r\nsoil fertility and water retention capacity (de Souza et  al., 2019). \r\nAdditionally, low organic carbon degradability over long time periods, \r\nassociated with high contents of charcoal or pyrogenic carbon, makes \r\nthese soils an important C sink (medium confidence: robust evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Lehmann et al., 2003; Guo, 2016; Trujillo et al., \r\n2020), which is particularly relevant in an area like the Amazon, that \r\ncould change from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source as a \r\nconsequence of anthropogenic climate change (Maezumi et al., 2018b)."


id: b83fbda0aae410e5e62896245f6ca7b8
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content:
"medium agreement) (Miranda Sara and Baud, 2014; Pepermans and \r\nMaeseele, 2016; Sina et al., 2016; Miranda Sara et al., 2017)."


id: f1b02c0740eb8e2a20a5558a2dc0d486
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 35533
content:
"The Indigenous agricultural practices that led to ADEs are thought \r\nto be associated with a more sedentary agricultural model than the \r\ncurrent slash-and-burn and shifting cultivation practices. Although \r\nthis is a controversial topic, as the precise definitions of slash and \r\nburn and shifting cultivation are presently under discussion (Hecht, \r\n2003), several present-day local and Indigenous agricultural practices, \r\nincluding in-field burning and nutrient additions from food processing \r\nand residue management, have been recognised as promoting high \r\norganic carbon and nutrient soil contents similar to those found in \r\nADEs (Hecht, 2003; Winklerprins, 2009)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 2467
content:
"In 2014, the water company (SEDAPAL), together with the Lima \r\nMetropolitan Municipality (LMM), National Water Authority (ANA) and \r\nother organisations, agreed on a Lima Action Plan for Water (Schutze \r\net  al., 2019). The same year, the LMM approved a climate change \r\nstrategy defining adaptation and mitigation measures (Miranda Sara \r\nand Baud, 2014) based on technical and scientific action research \r\nwithin interactive and iterative concertation multi-actor processes."


id: 73b455ef32d78823fb1a55aebe8f3c90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15817
content:
"Preservation of the practices and knowledge associated with these \r\nsoils is vital for sustainable agriculture in a climate-change scenario in \r\nthe Amazon. It will greatly contribute to the preservation of valuable IK \r\nas well as the contribution to the development of new adaptation and \r\nmitigation technologies, among other unexplored solutions."


id: ea3fa80670eb05bc5409e5767166bfcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34362
content:
"However, in 2015, municipal elections shifted Lima's and, later, \r\nPeru's political power to parties associated with climate deniers at \r\na high cost to the people, city infrastructure and housing. In early \r\n2017, buildings along rivers, ravines and slopes suffered from floods, \r\nhuaycos (mudslides), and the whole city experienced potable water \r\ncuts (Vazquez-Rowe et al., 2017) and vector-borne diseases affecting \r\nespecially poorer but also richer inhabitants."


id: ca027ce165b866e64457e3a04fdb2f43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29338
content:
"A so-called coastal El Nino affected the whole country, and as a \r\nconsequence, in 2018 the Peruvian government passed the Framework \r\nLaw for Climate Change, Law No. 30754, a unique political decision, to \r\nassure the integration of climate-change concerns in public policies and \r\ninvestment projects. The law defines local government mandates on \r\nlocal climate action plans. The 2019 municipal elections brought new \r\nlocal authorities to Lima, and by 2020, 19 district municipalities had \r\ndeveloped adaptation measures, adopting the metropolitan climate \r\nchange strategy with support from Cities for Life Foro and GIZ (Foro \r\nCiudades Para la Vida, 2021). In 2021, LMM approved its local climate \r\nchange plan (LCCP), and 10 (out of 51 with Callao) more municipalities \r\nfinalised their LCCP with the support of the Global Covenant of Mayors \r\nfor Climate & Energy and the European Union."


id: 30b81f095236ca34fd1f746fa7c8d431
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The institutionalised culture of participation in Peru did lead to a \r\nbroader concept of concertation, wherein practices of collaborative \r\nplanning were developed to allow actors to build up socially supported \r\nagreements and decisions and take action without losing sight of their \r\nprinciples. These processes have been applied to reduce risks, to adapt \r\nand to anticipate uncertain and unknown futures; they also introduced \r\nclimate-change concerns within a complex political and institutional "


id: 97497342cd49dac3267d805debca85c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
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vector_id: 21323
content:
"dried because of overextraction by multiple users (60 in the case \r\nof Madre Vieja). This had happened before to a lesser extent in the \r\nlast 20 years during the critical months of the dry season. A lack of \r\nregulation, coordination mechanisms, information and other elements \r\nof water governance was the root cause of the problem, exacerbated \r\nby the drier conditions during the intense El Nino event, resulting in the \r\nintensification of an existing conflict (high confidence) (Guerra, 2016)."


id: 65293531b26548e24f1701302aa39371
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13481
content:
"environment surrounded by corruption scandals (Vergara, 2018; \r\nDurand, 2019) and growing political polarisation."


id: 840c51df4e91ea3c775ab9a63a2d5027
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18308
content:
"Several processes have been set in motion to engage citizen \r\nparticipation and promote climate action planning. First, the LMM with \r\nClimate Action Plan processes reopened the Climate Change Technical \r\nGroup of the Municipal Environmental Commission, whose work \r\nended in the approval of the Lima Local Action Plan of Climate Change \r\n(MML, 2021). Second, the River Basin Council is developing the River \r\nBasin Management Plan led by the National Water Authority.Finally, \r\nthe Metropolitan Lima Urban Development Plan is finalising a citizen \r\nconsultation, with the support of a high-level consultation group."


id: 39514a33dc98e46b5c663a9de7aa9611
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6393
content:
"Such processes include heated discussions, conflicts and the recognition \r\nof other discourses and types of knowledge so as to build up scenarios \r\nthat 'visualise' and anticipate what might happen. These processes \r\nrequire democratic, transparent and decentralised institutions, \r\nproviding clear mandates and strong political will to support them, so \r\nthat the poor and vulnerable can make their views known and are able \r\nto make themselves heard, even if their power remains limited (Chu \r\net  al., 2016). Opportunities for the reconfiguration of sociopolitical \r\nand technological water governance are emerging based on socially \r\nsupported agreements (Miranda Sara and Baud, 2014; Miranda \r\nSara, 2021). However, the water governance configuration faces the \r\nparadox that the current water demands of all users combined may no \r\nlonger be feasible within ecological limits and future climate-change \r\nconsequences (Miranda Sara et al., 2016; Schutze et al., 2019)."


id: 3318ca950e26e5ccded11428c4a7ac4c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5463
content:
"A key actor in the improvement of water governance has been the \r\nprivate Institute for Climate Change Research (ICC). This is a unique \r\ninitiative that was created in 2010 and is funded primarily by the \r\nprivate sector of Guatemala to help the country advance in climate\u0002change mitigation and adaptation (Guerra, 2014). The institute works \r\nalongside local governments, communities and private companies \r\nin several areas besides integrated water management. Its role is \r\nmerely technical-scientific: it oversees the water monitoring system, \r\ngenerating data on weather and hydrology and providing support to \r\nother stakeholders."


id: fed6dff54999c94cdcb5d9c477b32ceb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37638
content:
"Guatemala experiences high climate interannual variability, now \r\nincreased from the effect of climate change (INSIVUMEH, 2018; \r\nBardales et al., 2019). Impacts on human settlements, agriculture and \r\necosystems result from both excess and reduced precipitation (high \r\nconfidence) (Section  12.3.1.4). Guerra (2016) argues that deficient \r\nIWRM in the country is the main reason for those impacts. A case \r\nin point is that of the Madre Vieja and Achiguate rivers, where an \r\nintense El Nino event triggered dryer conditions and, in turn, a crisis \r\nand conflict that reached national proportions. Progress in local water \r\ngovernance helped to solve that crisis and helped tackle challenges \r\nposed by reduced precipitation and flood risk in southern Guatemala."


id: df2893a42dec85408d65129c8bfc910d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32610
content:
"The ENSO event that started in November 2014 and ended in July \r\n2016 (CIIFEN, 2016) was the most intense since records commenced \r\nin 1950 (NOAA, 2019). Its effects were felt in different parts of the \r\nworld, and Guatemala and the rest of CA experienced intense water \r\nscarcity due to a significant reduction in rainfall (high confidence) \r\n(IICA, 2015; Scientific American, 2015). River flow in the dry months \r\nis related to precipitation levels in the previous rainy season, so ENSO \r\nhas an effect on river flow rates. Two of the main rivers in the Pacific \r\ncoast of Guatemala, Madre Vieja and Achiguate, dried out completely \r\nat the beginning of 2016, triggering a nearly violent local conflict that \r\ncaught the attention of national leaders (Guerra, 2016; Gobernacion \r\nde Escuintla et al., 2017). In addition to the severe drought, the rivers "


id: fdad2355aa474dc9252043a8cb773389
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37426
content:
"public-private coordination mechanisms and providing much needed \r\ntechnical assistance to local governments (ICC, 2019a)."


id: 43a80c2dabed8e60633fb007d5beae30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8047
content:
"marine and coastal ecosystems and on ecosystem functioning and the \r\nprovision of environmental services. Experimental studies are rare and \r\nmost necessary to identify critical ecological thresholds to support \r\ndecision-making processes, linking glacier retreat to its consequences \r\non biodiversity and ecosystems, combined with different land use \r\ntrajectories. Complex interactions with processes such as peace \r\nagreements in Colombia are yet to be investigated (Salazar et  al., \r\n2018). In NSA, there remains a limited amount of peer-reviewed \r\nliterature addressing the implications of climate change on Indigenous \r\ncultures and their livelihoods. In SAM, further data are needed on the \r\nvulnerability of traditional populations, impacts on water availability \r\nand soil degradation, risks to biodiversity and resilience of ecosystems \r\nin connection with climate change."


id: eef0e36312755ae9cd50e7f3bec756be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35064
content:
"Although some may argue that water governance is in the realm of \r\ndevelopment, it has made contributions in reducing direct and indirect \r\nimpacts of climate events and, therefore, can be seen as a key element \r\nfor climate adaptation (high confidence)."


id: 85bbe9f126b3233d5e0f82e580e0f8e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18579
content:
"Data deficiencies and heterogeneity in quantity, quality and \r\ngeographical bias in knowledge limit people's understanding of \r\nclimate change, evaluation of its impacts and the implementation \r\nof adaptation and mitigation measures (Harvey et al., 2018) in CSA. \r\nThe number of publications is not representative of the sensitivity to \r\nclimate change and vulnerability contexts of different sub-regions \r\nand sectors. This lack of representation in the mainstream literature \r\nmay lead to a bias and, therefore, an underestimation of the overall \r\nclimate-related impact for some CSA sub-regions (Sietsma et  al., \r\n2021). The reason for the relatively few quantitative studies might \r\nbe the complexities of socio-demographic and economic factors and \r\nthe lack of long-term and reliable data in these areas (Harvey et al., \r\n2018), along with other social, economic and technical constraints."


id: 9cd23ff657fd09c15b78b9633db797b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22208
content:
"Most studies that assess vulnerability to climate change do not yet \r\nfollow the concept adopted since AR5, which isolates exposure as an \r\nexternal variable (WGII AR5 Figure SPM 1) (IPCC, 2014), and many still \r\nuse the A and B system of climate-change scenarios from AR4, because \r\nthe adoption of the RCP models has been slow. There is still limited \r\nliterature on severe risks and little specific and explicit consideration \r\nof risk drivers in the region. Moreover, limits to adaptation and \r\nthe effectiveness of adaptation measures in CSA remain largely \r\nunderstudied."


id: 2c07bb7f516958563193dc085c6d375b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4364
content:
"Research on the interactions between climate change and socioeconomic \r\nprocesses is not extensive (Barnes et al., 2013; Leichenko and O'Brien, \r\n2019; Thomas et al., 2019). There is limited understanding of the multi\u0002level synergistic effects of climate change and other drivers, including \r\neconomic development from the household to the country level \r\n(Wilbanks and Kates, 2010; Leichenko and Silva, 2014; Tanner et  al., \r\n2015a; Carey et al., 2017). In the region, this deficit is greater for sectors \r\nother than agriculture, water and food."


id: 9c4ad1d3213920d384a852c94e3f8bfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22143
content:
"Advances in scientific knowledge on the risks of climate-change \r\nimpacts and the vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems to climate \r\nchange are needed (Bustamante et  al., 2020). Persistent climate \r\nchange in tropical rainforests requires deeper study and understanding, \r\noverall in connection with the role of nutrients, deep-water availability \r\nand biodiversity. Further research is needed to understand feedback \r\nto climate systems of large-scale changes in the land surface in SA \r\nbiomes. The region has important freshwater Global 200 Ecoregions, \r\nincluding the Orinoco River and Flooded Forests, Upper Amazon River \r\nand streams, and Amazon River and Flooded Forests, which represent \r\na priority for freshwater biodiversity conservation at a global scale \r\n(Manes et  al., 2021) (Cross-Chapter Paper 1; Figure  12.8). There is, \r\nhowever, a clear knowledge gap on the impacts of climate change on \r\nfreshwater biodiversity in the region (Section CCP1.2.3; Manes et al., "


id: 83dee86bfa7f331d05adf1b7563ae959
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18279
content:
"The knowledge gaps in the eight sub-regions are quite heterogeneous. \r\nIn CA, climate-change research is notably insufficient in all sectors \r\nincluded in this report, considering that climatic change, variability \r\nand extremes are impacting and will continue to severely impact this \r\nsub-region, and the vulnerability of the social and natural systems \r\nis high. Data deficiencies must be overcome as renewed research \r\non climate change updates models, scenarios and projected impacts \r\nacross sectors and levels (i.e., household to country). In NWS, there \r\nis a lack of studies on the relationships with increased fire events, \r\nand the impacts on the infrastructure of all kinds, on certain lowland, "


id: af73d5090545fd323dcfa2ed272385e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25119
content:
"2021). Lastly, more interdisciplinary research is needed regarding \r\nconservation strategies and stable financial resources focusing on \r\nadaptation of ecosystems in the region (Mistry et al., 2016; Gebara \r\nand Agrawal, 2017; Ruggiero et al., 2019; To and Dressler, 2019)."


id: 1e4fcd9f094673331a112e04413f90b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2207
content:
"widespread gaps between farmers' information needs and services \r\nthat are routinely available. There is evidence that when climate \r\ninformation services are created with farmer input and targeted in \r\na timely and inclusive manner, they are a positive determinant of \r\nadaptation through the adoption of more resilient farm-level practices. \r\nHowever, current assessments of the economic impacts of climate \r\ninformation services are scarce; hence, more such studies are needed."


id: 8b7987bc49d36cd303f8f389971a4a67
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19461
content:
"As in other sectors and environmental systems, for the water sector \r\nthere are important limitations in terms of monitoring and data \r\ncollection. High-quality, long-term hydrological data are unevenly \r\navailable for different sub-regions and limit the possibility of obtaining \r\na deeper understanding of changes in river runoff and lake or \r\ngroundwater changes. Groundwater data are particularly scarce. There \r\nare important gaps related to the projections of water resources for \r\nthe future. Much of current knowledge on future changes in water \r\nresources and water scarcity and flood risks is based on information \r\nfrom global-scale studies because studies specific to this region are \r\nscarce. Several elements that are important for IWRM, such as water \r\nquality, water demand, privatisation and other economic dynamics, \r\nand nutrient, pollutant and sediment flux are poorly known currently \r\ndue to missing data and insufficient efforts to monitor them."


id: 1289dd4039157d8a7777b1c299e4641
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 410
content:
"There is a growing body of evidence that climate variability and \r\nclimate change (CVC) cause harm to human health in CSA. However, \r\nthere is a lack of information about the current and future projected \r\nimpacts of CVC events on overall illness and death in this region. It is \r\nchallenging to attribute specific health outcomes to CVC in models \r\nand field experiments due to multiple factors, including the following:"


id: dee3c601dc1da3a8169bac6be3787b9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32565
content:
"Integrative evaluation on impacts on food security, including agricultural \r\nproduction, distribution and access, leading to adaptation strategies is \r\nlimited within the region. Limited information regarding cost-benefit \r\nanalyses of adaptation in the food production sector is available in \r\nthe region. It is also important to obtain a better understanding of \r\nadaptation effects to avoid maladaptation and promote site-specific \r\nand dynamic adaptation options considering available technologies. \r\nCompiling and systematising existing scientific and local knowledge \r\non the relationship between forests, land cover/use and hydrological \r\nservices is a gap that must be filled from a broader perspective in the \r\nregion, which could contribute to formulating recommendations and \r\ninform restoration practices and policies. The literature also highlights "


id: 3b5c616191cef9668c35503c1a187d74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6690
content:
"The uncertainty inherent in predictive models also makes it challenging \r\nto expand current localised knowledge on the impacts of infectious \r\ndiseases associated with CVC to other regions or future climate \r\nscenarios (UNEP, 2018)."


id: d8cd2e07603f80c5f14bb270834fd373
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31620
content:
"The literature to assess the effectiveness of pro-poor or low-income \r\nadaptation options continues to be weak; a very small proportion \r\nshows results associated with adaptation efforts (Magrin et al., 2014; \r\nBerrang-Ford et  al., 2021). Without this kind of approach and in\u0002depth understanding there is the risk that top-down climate-change \r\nadaptation options could reinforce poverty cycles and neglect cultural \r\nvalues, even eroding them (Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016; Walshe \r\nand Argumedo, 2016; Allen et  al., 2017a; Hallegatte et  al., 2018; \r\nKalikoski et al., 2018; UN-Habitat, 2018)."


id: 3e2f1b21a98108329a11542537ebaf1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7152
content:
"Improved risk assessments based on better models and empirical \r\nresearch are needed to bridge the knowledge gap and inform the \r\ndesign of adaptation strategies. A systematic multi-scalar analysis of \r\nthe impact of CVC on human health is needed across distinct social\u0002ecological contexts. Data collection systems need to be strengthened \r\nto accurately estimate the burden of mortality and morbidity from \r\nheat and extreme events. The data deficit is a common problem in \r\nfunctioning civil registration and vital statistics systems, including lack \r\nof information on causes of death (UNEP, 2018). In addition, there is a \r\nlack of consensus on globally accepted and operational definitions for \r\nboth climate-related extremes and exposures/outcomes."


id: 758e5c6181a3207e8a899dd3d95dc181
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16085
content:
"The impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups remain \r\nunderstudied. There are little or no climate data on the remote \r\nmountain regions of CSA as well as research measuring the \r\nvulnerability of smallholders living there, making it hard to assess the \r\nexpected changes or the possible adaptation measures (Pons et  al., \r\n2016; Donatti et al., 2019)."


id: 3b6ab80dd8229e03117cf681988dfb94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6701
content:
"For infectious disease (vector-borne and water-borne), the technology \r\navailable to estimate current and future risk areas is often limited by \r\nhuman or financial resource constraints in developing countries. There is \r\na geographical mismatch between the areas producing the technology \r\nand knowledge (in the global north) and the areas most affected \r\nby CVC (in the global south). User-friendly tools that bring together \r\nclimate and health information--without the need for modelling or GIS \r\nexpertise--are needed for health sector decision makers."


id: a30bf1df404ff8c8a2585957148ff100
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23217
content:
"A significant number of studies address the impacts of climate change \r\non the Amazon rainforest (Brienen et al., 2015; Doughty et al., 2015; \r\nFeldpausch et al., 2016; Rammig, 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020); however, \r\nassessment of the tangible and intangible impacts of climate change \r\non Indigenous Peoples' cultures and livelihoods in this forest need to be \r\nfurther advanced (Brondizio et al., 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: 7f3715d568ffb87e417a1bae0f311df2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17568
content:
"There is a lack of studies that assess the feasibility of health adaptation \r\nmeasures (Section  12.5.10), thereby limiting the ability of decision \r\nmakers to compare different health interventions and identify \r\nbottlenecks for implementation. The growing field of implementation \r\nscience could help to address barriers to mainstreaming climate \r\ninformation in the health sector as an adaptation strategy."


id: 77af3bbeabd4b765eae5dd4c36a734f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16385
content:
"Studies on the perception of climate change in rural and urban \r\npopulations throughout the region have increased, but there is a lack \r\nof more specific research on the perception of specific groups, such \r\nas economic or political actors, that influence public institutions and \r\npolicies at the local, regional and national levels."


id: e6d9a908c7401b16cf51e89867200631
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33803
content:
"Finally, there is an almost complete absence of studies that address \r\nrelationships of climate change with well-being in CSA, broadly \r\nunderstood as including emotions and moods, satisfaction with life, \r\nsense of meaning and positive functioning, including the capacity \r\nfor unimpaired cognitive functioning and economic productivity \r\n(Section 7.1.4.1)."


id: 6d4bb0282ca3d38fe28adc41dc5a5335
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14815
content:
"While studies on climate-change gender-differentiated impacts \r\nhave grown over the past 10  years in CSA, studies on how gender \r\nintersects with other dimensions such as race, ethnicity, age or rural/\r\nurban setting are still needed. This will help to further understand \r\nhow gender inequalities are connected to broader power structures \r\nin society and, thus, to produce evidence on the importance of an \r\nintersectional approach to climate change."


id: 27e2fa64a11dd6ccbb2dc177ac5353a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3686
content:
"Climate change is becoming a major obstacle to poverty reduction and \r\novercoming poverty traps. There is a need to better understand how \r\npoor and vulnerable communities are affected and the more effective \r\nways to prevent it. The large majority of the poor in the region are \r\nliving in urban areas (UNDESA, 2019); extreme urban poverty is \r\nincreasingly more relevant, including the needs and priorities of \r\ninformal settlements and economies, but less studied within the \r\ninteraction with climate change. There is little reporting of major \r\nadaptation options implemented by or for vulnerable and poor urban \r\ndwellers (Ryan and Bustos, 2019; Berrang-Ford et al., 2021)."


id: 8493fd49a749773de11e1cc377e38a1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 18384
content:
"Regarding the relation of social movements and climate-change \r\nadaptation, institutions and politics, two major issues stand out: youth \r\nmovements for climate change and the resistances, mainly urban, \r\nto climate-change adaptation policies. Little connection is found in \r\nresearch concentrating on resistance to climate-change adaptation \r\npolicies and their interaction with the politics of place. Conflictivity \r\nrelated to climate change is another understudied issue."


id: 44111df58b2f432f1770d74ad0d2331f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 8123
content:
"Although there are several case studies on migrations and \r\ndisplacements caused by strong and immediate climatic threats, such \r\nas hurricanes or floods, and on slow-onset impacts, such as droughts \r\nor temperature increase, there are gaps in the attribution or relative \r\nweight of climate change in these processes."


id: ce27f69f118160cef8780e8fd6bea99d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Adaptation options are being increasingly documented for poverty\u0002related impacts, despite the fact that the uncertain context from \r\nclimate impacts is not uniform across communities and the very local \r\nscale of the type of adaptation responses needed (Miranda Sara et al., \r\n2016; Rosenzweig et al., 2018; Dodman et al., 2019). There is a huge \r\ngap in understanding how the poor respond to climate change, what is \r\nneeded to support them and the interconnections among development \r\npolicies, poverty and risk reduction with climate-change actions (Ryan \r\nand Bustos, 2019; Satterthwaite et al., 2020)."


id: bca5830d25ec487f5ab94423c18218a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 27256
content:
"Still important to note is that synergies between mitigation, adaptation, \r\nrisk reduction and sustainable development have not been jointly \r\nexplored, which would better facilitate adaptation policy approaches."


id: 1de1d3e88322c6219202fabbe8b3be22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 2135
content:
"urban populations and assets are exposed to SLR. Climate change is \r\nthreatening several systems (glaciers in the Andes, coral reefs in CA, \r\nthe Amazon rainforest) that are already approaching a critical state at \r\nrisk of irreversible damage."


id: fd5468dbdf1876d2f813aab7e912307e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 37369
content:
"There are critical knowledge gaps in the interlinkages between social \r\nand environmental dynamics that are important for climate-change \r\nadaptation, as in Andean forest landscapes. A salient knowledge \r\ngap in this thematic area is the need to characterise how multi-level \r\nand multi-actor governance systems can enable sustainable land \r\nmanagement practices, including ecosystem restoration (Mathez\u0002Stiefel et  al., 2017). More capacities are needed to increase the \r\ngeneration of relevant knowledge. Even small grant programmes can \r\nsustain research projects that target the linkages between knowledge \r\nand decision-making at multiple scales (Baez et al., 2020)."


id: 796dfe661021892363de2bd0dd0009d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 16679
content:
"Extreme heat, droughts and floods will seriously affect CSA terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystems. The high poverty level increases the \r\nregion's vulnerability to droughts, both in cities and rural areas, where \r\npeople already suffer from natural water scarcity (high confidence). \r\nThe conversion of natural ecosystems to other land uses exacerbates \r\nthe adaptation challenges. IKLK play an important role in adaptation \r\nbut are also threatened by climate change (high confidence). EbA \r\nand CbA have increased since AR5, with an emphasis on freshwater \r\necosystems and forests, including protected areas. Inadequate access \r\nto finance and technology is widely identified as an adaptation barrier \r\n(high confidence)."


id: fd9f1fdf531ad87635f6f86c10739c0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the economy. \r\nSubsistence farmers and the urban poor are expected to be the \r\nmost impacted by droughts and variable rainfall in the region (high \r\nconfidence). The increasing water scarcity is and will continue to impact \r\nfood security, human health and well-being. The impacts of the many \r\nlandslides and floods affect mainly the urban poor neighbourhoods \r\nand are responsible for the majority of the deaths related to disasters. \r\nSLR and intense storm surges are expected to impact the tourism and \r\nhospitality industry in general. Internal and international migrations \r\nand displacements are expected to increase (high confidence). Climatic \r\ndrivers, such as droughts, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains \r\nand floods, interact with social, political, geopolitical and economic \r\ndrivers (high confidence)."


id: 3c9a416f6862b340e1b2f95ce9d52110
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The common patterns and problems, however, also highlight the \r\npossibilities for collaboration and learning among the countries and \r\ninstitutions in the region in order to strengthen the interface between \r\nknowledge and policy in climate-change adaptation. All countries in \r\nthe region have submitted their first and updated NDCs, and many \r\nhave published their NAPs, establishing priorities and formulating their \r\nown policies to cope with climate change."


id: 33676112b3ccba659a959cd2815509e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 5505
content:
"Various adaptation initiatives have been launched in various sectors \r\nthat focus on reducing poverty, improving livelihoods and achieving \r\nsustainable and resilient development. An increasing number of \r\nplanned and autonomous initiatives has been seen, led by communities, \r\ngovernments or a combination of the two, involving engineering \r\nor NbS. Climate-smart agriculture is an effective option, in several \r\nconditions and regions, to mitigate the negative impacts of climate \r\nchange. Disaster reduction solutions are increasingly being used, such \r\nas EWSs. Many and diverse initiatives are still poorly reported and \r\nevaluated in the scientific literature, leading to challenges in assessing \r\nand improving them, including consideration of tacit IKLK. The lack \r\nof climate data and proper downscaling, weak governance, obstacles \r\nto financing, and inequality constrain the adaptation process (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: 482ab84a7a93e18d09767406f4c1b5eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 8726
content:
"Socioecological systems in the region are highly vulnerable to climate \r\nchange, which acts in synergy with other drivers such as land use \r\nchange and deep socioeconomic inequalities. Most biodiversity \r\nhotspots in the region will be negatively impacted. The Cerrado \r\nand the Atlantic Forest (two important biodiversity hotspots where \r\nabout 72% of Brazil's threatened species can be found) are exposed \r\nto different hazards (extreme events, mean temperature increase) \r\ndue to climate change. Many coastal areas and their concentrated "


id: fe973ba6154dcd14f7bf8dbf5d923d2d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 37593
content:
"Adaptation measures have been increased and improved since AR5 \r\nin ocean and coastal ecosystems. The majority of these measures are \r\nfocused on EbA application through the application of protection and "


id: d84438d395d1bf3fb7336e775565c486
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 31551
content:
"There is a growing body of evidence that climate variability and climate \r\nchange are causing harm to human health in CSA--including the \r\nincreasing transmission of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, heat \r\nstress, respiratory illness associated with fires, food and water insecurity \r\nassociated with drought, among others (medium confidence). In \r\nresponse, countries in the region are developing innovative adaptation \r\nstrategies to inform health decision-making such as integrated \r\nclimate-health surveillance systems and observatories, forecasting \r\nof climate-related disasters and epidemic forecast tools. However, \r\ninstitutional barriers (limited resources, administrative feasibility and \r\npolitical mandates) need to be addressed to ensure the sustained \r\nimplementation of adaptation strategies (high confidence)."


id: 2a604ecc8daef930a2e854cd6ea0cb20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Poor and vulnerable groups exert limited political influence; the fewer \r\nchannels and opportunities that exist to participate in decision-making \r\nand policymaking make these groups less able to leverage government \r\nsupport to invest in adaptation measures (very high confidence). \r\nParticipatory processes spur adaptation measures strengthening local \r\ncapacities, though the literature assessing the success of such initiatives \r\nremains limited. Limits to adaptation include access to land, territory \r\nand resources, labour and livelihood opportunities, knowledge gaps \r\nand poor multi-actor coordination. Social organisation, participation \r\nand governance reconfiguration are essential for building climate \r\nresilience (very high confidence)."


id: 666ace04192e94e53c38dbd0d707a97
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 13704
content:
"In the water sector, a lack of systematic analysis and evaluation of \r\nadaptation measures predominates, although important progress has \r\nbeen made since AR5 in terms of understanding the interlinkages \r\namong climate change, human vulnerabilities, governance, policies and \r\nadaptation success (high confidence). NbS, PES, IWRM and integration \r\nof IKLK hold great potential for success, in particular if adopting \r\napproaches with inclusive negotiation formats for water management \r\nwith clear, just and transparent rights and responsibilities."


id: 65a6534bee29edb03d35ac7ff26ec147
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Social organisation, participation, governance, education and \r\ncommunications to increase perception and knowledge are essential \r\nfor building the resilience to adapt and overcome expected and \r\nunexpected climate impacts (very high confidence). The focus on \r\ninclusion and enrolling of the full range of actors in adaptation \r\nprocesses, including vulnerable populations, have yielded good \r\nresults in the region (high confidence). However, existing poverty and \r\ninequality, imbalances in power relations, corruption, weak governance \r\nand institutions, structural problems and high levels of risk tolerance \r\nmay reinforce poverty and inequality cycles (high confidence). In \r\naddition, the continued exposure of critical infrastructure and valuable \r\nassets are signs of persisting maladaptation."


id: d7544e5c70dc6fa4964ac8c09f20c115
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 31393
content:
"Climate change poses several challenges to the agri-food sector, \r\nimpacting agricultural production and productivity and posing a \r\nrisk to food security and the economy (high confidence). Adapting \r\nagriculture while conserving the environment represents a challenge \r\nfor sustainable and resilient food production (high confidence). \r\nAdaptation in the region presents persistent barriers and limitations \r\n(Table  12.8) associated with investments and knowledge gaps \r\n(medium confidence). Climate change urges advances in initiatives to \r\nimprove education, technology and innovation in farming systems in \r\nthe CSA region."


id: 352b5fe89e1e3a5fa337ba81f0b87c9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The development model prevalent in the region in recent decades \r\nhas proven to be unsustainable, with the emphasis on financial \r\nsources based on natural resource depletion and extraction and \r\nthe persistence and growing inequality. It is widely recognised that \r\nclimate adaptation measures, if carefully selected considering coupled \r\nhuman-environment systems, will provide significant contributions to \r\nthe sustainable development pathways of the region and to achieve \r\nthe SDGs if implemented together with comprehensive strategies to \r\nreduce poverty, inequality and risks (high confidence). Adaptation and \r\nthe construction of resilience offer not only an opportunity to reduce \r\nclimate-change impacts but also an opportunity to reduce inequality \r\nand development gaps, to achieve dynamic economies and to regulate \r\nthe sustainable use and transformation of the territory."


id: fed24edad3968a6ba7f62c42ce35996d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"FAQ 12.1 | How are inequality and poverty limiting options to adapt to climate change in Central and South \r\nAmerica?"


id: d8662986a73ceed32d552e9a5d00eaf0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Poverty and inequality decrease human capacity to adapt to climate change. Limited access to resources may reduce the ability of individuals, \r\nhouseholds and societies to adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability because of the narrow response portfolio. Inequality limits \r\nresponses available to vulnerable segments as most adaptation options are resource-dependent."


id: 859d19a503a74227e213daa7ed90adbf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Though poverty in Central and South America has decreased over the last 12 years, inequality remains as a historic \r\nand structural characteristic of the region. In 2018, 29.5% of Latin America's population (including Mexico) were \r\npoor (182 million) and 10.2% were extremely poor (63 million), more than half of them living in urban areas. In \r\n2020, due to COVID crisis Gini coefficient projection of increases is ranging from 1.1% to 7.8%, poverty increased to \r\n33.7% (209 millions) and extreme poverty to 12.5% (78 millions)."


id: f070d096d119f2ec13fa01ae28d52dcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Poor populations have little or no access to good-quality education, information, health systems and financial \r\nservices. They have fewer chances to access resources, such as land and water, good-quality housing, risk-reducing \r\ninfrastructure, and services, such as running water, sanitation and drainage. Their lack of political clout and \r\nendowments limits their access to assets for withstanding and recovering from shocks and stresses. Poverty, \r\ninequality and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change are interrelated processes. Poor populations are \r\nhighly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and are usually located in areas of high exposure to extreme \r\nevents. The constant loss of assets and livelihoods in both urban and rural areas drives communities into chronic \r\npoverty traps, exacerbating local poverty cycles and creating new ones."


id: fdf1cf2a4b961a98bb63ae776889ca06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"For instance, climate-related reduced yields in crops, fisheries and aquaculture have a substantial impact on \r\nthe livelihoods and food security of families and affect their options for coping with and adapting to climate \r\nchange and variability. The impact of climate change in agriculture for CSA depends on determinants such as \r\nthe availability of natural resources, access to markets, diversity of inputs and production methods, quality and \r\ncoverage of infrastructure and socioeconomic characteristics of the population. Impacts from climate change on \r\nsmall-scale farmers compromise the livelihoods and food security of rural areas and, consequently, the food supply \r\nfor urban areas."


id: 399c53c56c39130618bcd729ad7f29f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Governments in the region have implemented several poverty-reduction programmes. However, policies of income \r\nredistribution and poverty alleviation do not necessarily improve climate risk management, so complementary \r\npolicies integrating both social and material conditions are required. A study in northern Brazil showed that risk \r\nmanagement strategies for droughts and food insecurity did not change poverty rates between 1997-1998 and \r\n2011-2012. Major shocks, such as climate and extreme weather events (e.g., floods, heavy rains, droughts, frost), \r\nreduce and destroy public and private property. For instance, the ENSO event of 2017 in Peru caused losses estimated \r\nbetween USD 6 and 9 billion, affected more than a million inhabitants and generated 370,000 new poor. In total, \r\nlosses by unemployment, deaths, destruction and damage to infrastructure and houses were around 1.3% of the \r\nGDP of Peru."


id: d9bef644182696492f77b8ce81ae9f45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Inequality, informality and precariousness are particularly relevant barriers to adaptation. A significant part of the \r\nconstruction sector in the region is informal and does not follow regulations for land use and construction safety \r\ncodes, and there is a lack of public strategies for housing access. Adaptive construction is based on up-to-date \r\nregulation and codes, appropriate design and materials, and access to infrastructure and services. Decreasing \r\ninequality and eradicating poverty are crucial for achieving proper adaptation to climate change in the region. \r\nSome anti-poverty initiatives, such as savings groups, microfinance for improving housing or assets and community \r\nenterprises, may also support specific adaptive measures. These mechanisms should be widely accessible to poor \r\ngroups and be complemented by comprehensive poverty alleviation programmes that include climate-change \r\nadaptation."


id: ab8cebd43c85bd944dc1dfc9e77df73d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"FAQ 12.2 | How have urban areas in Central and South America adapted to climate change so far, which further \r\nactions should be considered within the next decades and what are the limits of adaptation and sustainability?\r\nCities are becoming focal points for climate-change impacts. Rapid urbanisation in CSA, together with accelerating demand for housing, \r\nresource supplies and social and health services, has put pressure on the already stretched physical and social infrastructure. In addition, \r\nmigration is negatively affecting the opportunities of cities to adapt to climate change."


id: 6fce7e9c0b00fd516cd62e28e9af8748
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"CSA is the second most urbanised region in the world after North America, with 81% of its population being \r\nurban. In addition, 129 secondary cities with 500,000 inhabitants are home to half of the region's urban population \r\n(222 million). Another 65 million people live in megacities of over 10 million each. The population migrates among \r\ncities, resulting in more secondary cities and creating mega regions and urban corridors."


id: c50ff99dfa91ea9b663938c06472b3e6
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"Rapid growth in cities has increased the urban informal housing sector (e.g., slums, marginal human settlements \r\nand others), which increased from 6% to 26% of the total residences from 1990 to 2015. Coastal areas in CSA \r\nincreasingly concentrate more urban centres. Researchers indicate that between 3 and 4 million inhabitants will \r\nexperience coastal flooding and erosion from SLR in all emission scenarios by 2100 considering South America alone."


id: 3fcb99ed8e7c340f09133fe99ac01c09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"A study on cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants showed that the number of coastal cities significantly increased \r\nfrom 42 to 420 between 1945 and 2014; they are located close to fragile ecosystems such as bays, estuaries and \r\nmangrove forests, resulting in higher concentrations of population and economic activities. This process degraded \r\nthe ability of coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, to reduce risks and provide essential ecosystem services, which \r\nhelp to prevent coastal erosion or maintain fish stocks. Moreover, it reduced ports and tourism, along with income \r\nopportunities."


id: acd059d03b201f00cddf97b7b911f390
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Climate-change impacts on cities in CSA are strongly influenced by ENSO, which is associated with an increase in \r\nmore-extreme rainfall events. Urban areas are increasingly dealing with floods, landslides, storms, TCs, water stress, \r\nfires, spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases, damaging infrastructure, economic activities, built and natural \r\nenvironments and the population's overall well-being."


id: 981a391a31e33a12fe35221934e9b1a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Glacier retreat in the mountains will affect water runoff and water provision to metropolitan areas such as Lima, La \r\nPaz, Quito and Santiago, which rely on rivers that originate in the high Andes. Lima, the second driest capital city \r\nin the world, is vulnerable to drought and heavy rain peak events associated with climate change. In Bogota, lower \r\nprecipitation levels and a tendency towards increasing extreme events are expected in the coming decades. Hence, \r\nthe protection of fragile ecosystems such as paramo (fields at 3000 to 4000 MASL) will be crucial for supplying water \r\nto the city."


id: fa99564f139c7dfa60cb043e4030ff1d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"SLR impacts cities located in LECZs, not only because of direct coastal flooding, coastal erosion and subsidence, but \r\nalso because it aggravates the impact of storm surges, heat wave energy and saltwater intrusion. In Suriname and \r\nGuyana 68% and 31% of the population respectively live below 5 MASL, while many sectors of Georgetown, the \r\ncapital of Guyana, are below sea level. Floods with increased frequency and severity of storm surges will also impact \r\nthe River Plate estuary and lower delta of the Parana River where metropolitan Buenos Aires is located."


id: ed70d496384a22d64f15cf94abb3bfe0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Over 80% of losses associated with climate-related risks are concentrated in urban areas, and between 40% and \r\n70% of losses occur in cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants, most likely as a result of limited capacities to \r\nmanage disaster risks and low levels of investment."


id: c9f855dd9e2c15c18c49304f026f785f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Despite consistent political and economic barriers, many cities in the region have adopted sustainable local \r\ndevelopment agendas, which work to bring about balanced urban development. The shortcomings of poor \r\ndevelopment patterns remain prominently on display in cities and present important obstacles to adaptation \r\ninvestment, as public investment in basic needs (mainly housing and sanitation) must be prioritised."


id: a8434e679e0aee4f5c5b5c5a14884a50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 23997
content:
"FAQ 12.3 | How do climatic events and conditions affect migration and displacement in Central and South America, \r\nwill this change due to climate change, and how can communities adapt?"


id: ae342e2d08116522ee08772e5c07052c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 24940
content:
"Migration and displacements associated with climatic hazards are becoming more frequent in CSA, and they are expected to continue to \r\nincrease. These complex processes require comprehensive actions in their places of origin and reception, to improve both adaptation in more \r\naffected places and the conditions of mobilisation."


id: 4902af36cf01ccf9d14d22bdb2ca8bc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 8872
content:
"The migration, voluntary and involuntary, of individuals, families and groups is common in CSA. People migrate \r\nnationally and internationally, temporarily or permanently, predominantly from rural areas--often immersed in \r\npoverty--to urban areas. Common social drivers of migration in the region are the economy, politics, land tenure \r\nand land management change, lack of access to markets, lack of infrastructure, and violence; environmental drivers \r\ninclude loss of water, crops and livestock, land degradation and sudden or gradual onset of climate hazards."


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"The increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts, tropical storms, hurricanes and heavy rains producing \r\nlandslides and floods have amplified internal movements, overall rural to urban. For instance, rural-to-urban \r\nmigration in northern Brazil and international migration from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to North \r\nAmerica are partly a consequence of prolonged droughts, which have increased the stress of food availability in \r\nthese highly impoverished regions. Diminished access to water is also a result of privatisation of that resource. \r\nIn CA, the majority of migrants are young men, reducing the labour force in their places of origin. However, the "


id: a35ed73e7bf9b075945155d93fc81db1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"migrants send back substantial amounts of money, which have become the main source of foreign exchange for \r\ntheir countries and the main source of income for their families."


id: d714e609586bdb93b2d44bb1e11e3f26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 31348
content:
"Because poor people have fewer resources to adapt to changing conditions, they are usually the most impacted \r\nby climate hazards since they are already struggling to survive under normal conditions. These populations are the \r\nmost likely to migrate, chiefly because of the loss of their livelihoods, their precarious housing and settlements \r\nand the lack of money and international aid. Other important factors are the minimal governmental support and \r\nassistance through social safety nets and extension services, the scarcity and low quality of education and health \r\nservices, their isolation and marginality and the insecurity of land rights. These same conditions, though, may \r\nhinder their mobility or even render them immobile. Nevertheless, in some cases, despite worsening conditions, \r\npeople decide not to move."


id: 281a6c450298e5a9711f0f6489ff9585
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The magnitude and frequency of droughts and hurricanes are projected to keep increasing by 2050, which may \r\nforce millions of people to leave their homes. Climate models show some dry regions becoming even dryer in the \r\ncoming decades, increasing the stress on small farmers who rely on rainfall to water their fields. Glacier retreat \r\nand water scarcity are becoming strong drivers of migration in the Andes. SLR affects activities such as fishing and \r\ntourism, which will foster further migration. In Brazil, at least 0.9 million more people will migrate interregionally \r\nunder future climate conditions."


id: 7322ebe05f85c563e53f245de3dd693c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Addressing migration and displacement requires diverse interventions: in dry regions it is recommended to improve \r\nwater management in the places of origin of migration, including storage, distribution and irrigation. Wet regions, \r\nlowlands and floodplains will benefit from preventing construction in areas prone to landslides and flooding. \r\nGovernment and international aid are also important for improving people's options to adapt and enhance their \r\nresilience to climate impacts. In northern Brazil, for example, government financial support has significantly reduced \r\ndrought-related migration. There exists between Guatemala and Canada a temporary migration programme to \r\nbring in migrant workers during the harvest season. The United States is also increasing these types of legal \r\ntemporary migration."


id: 5a02a8f88440015acdf8002f00689ab4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 11674
content:
"FAQ 12.4 | How is climate change impacting and how is it expected to impact food production in Central and South \r\nAmerica in the next 30 years, and what effective adaptation strategies are and can be adopted in the region?\r\nAgriculture is a fundamental sector in the development of societies from economic and social perspectives, and so it is a major component of \r\nCSA countries' adaptive strategies. Implementation of sustainable agriculture practices, such as improved management on native grasslands \r\nor agroforestry systems for crop and livestock production, can increase productivity while improving adaptability."


id: bcc078409234225f2148e2e5bb62444
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Over the last two decades, countries throughout CSA have been developing rapidly. The agricultural sector is \r\nfundamental to this development from economic and social perspectives. Some countries in the region are major \r\nglobal food exporters:"


id: caca9a7b21a165fb6bac79e1fe1555f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"CSA is among the regions with the highest potential to increase food supplies, particularly to more densely \r\npopulated regions in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. A better understanding of the impact of the economy on \r\nthe environment and the contribution of the environment to the economy is critical for identifying opportunities \r\nfor innovation and promoting activities that could lead to sustainable economic growth without depleting natural \r\nresources and increasing sensitivity to climate change and climate variability. The consideration of food as a \r\ncommodity instead of a common resource leads to the accumulation of underpriced food resources at the expense "


id: 9f7bbb830dc9332ef2e3d133a81b364
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 22633
content:
"of natural capital. Without serious emissions reduction measures, climate models project an average 1degC to 4degC \r\nincrease in maximum temperatures and a 30% decrease in rainfall up to 2050, across CSA. Tropical SA is projected \r\nto warm at higher rates than the southern part of SA. Given these circumstances, some regions in CSA (Andes \r\nregion and CA) will just meet or fall below the critical food supply/demand ratio for their population. Meanwhile, \r\nthe temperate southern-most region of SA is projected to have agricultural production surplus. The challenge for \r\nthis region will be to retain the ability to feed and adequately nourish its internal population as well as make an \r\nimportant contribution to food supplies available to the rest of the world."


id: 469f434e87f5c3a0938e8d5e72db703d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The NDCs of most CSA countries expressly include agriculture as a major component of their adaptive strategy. \r\nFrom the recommendations presented, five general adaptive themes, or imperatives, emerge: (a) inclusion \r\nof climate-change projections as a key element for ministries of agriculture and research institutes in their \r\ndecision-making processes, (b) support of research on and adoption of drought- and heat-tolerant crop varieties, (c) \r\npromotion of sustainable irrigation as an effective adaptive strategy, (d) recovery of degraded lands and sustainable \r\nintensification of agriculture to prevent further deforestation, and (e) implementation of climate-smart practices \r\nand technologies to increase productivity while improving adaptability."


id: 1a89d42a529337ee772226952b1ac22f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1656
content:
"Indigenous Peoples have knowledge systems and practices that allow them to adapt to many climatic changes. Adaptation initiatives based on IK \r\nand practices are more sustainable and legitimate among local communities. It is important to build effective and respectful partnerships among \r\nIndigenous and non-Indigenous researchers to co-produce climate-relevant knowledge to enhance adaptation planning and action in the region."


id: c8509540a58b0d44aa3f14dd183d961a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 29090
content:
"The wide range of adaptation practices based on IK in the region include, among others, increasing species and \r\ngenetic diversity in agricultural systems through community seed exchanges; promotion of highly diverse crop \r\nsystems; ancient systems to collect and conserve water; fire prevention strategies; observing and monitoring changes \r\nin communal ecological-agricultural calendar cycles; recognising changes in ecological indicators like migration \r\npatterns in birds, the behaviour of insects and other invertebrates and the phenology of fruit and flowering species; \r\nand systematisation and knowledge exchange among communities. These practices represent a valuable cultural \r\nand biological heritage."


id: d5ad0d9535eb2aff8404abcbff25faa9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 31136
content:
"The Kichwa in the Ecuadorian Amazon cultivate Chakras (plots) within the rainforest. These plots combine crops \r\nand medicinal herbs for both self-consumption and selling. Similar systems, like the Chakras in the high Andes, the \r\nMilpas in CA, and the Conucos in northern SA, have been resilient to social and environmental disturbances due \r\nto their outstanding agrobiodiversity (more than 40 species and varieties can be present in one plot), microhabitat \r\nmanagement and the associated knowledge and institutions."


id: 6e537eb3f0d2c3b65610f8eb8a5f9b43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 14982
content:
"Traditional fire management among Indigenous Peoples of Venezuela, Brazil and Guyana is another adaptation \r\nstrategy based on a fine-tuned understanding of environmental indicators associated with their culture and \r\nworldviews. In these countries, Indigenous lands have the lowest incidence of wildfires, significantly contributing \r\nto maintaining and enhancing biodiversity. These traditional practices have helped to prevent large-scale and \r\ndestructive wildfires, reducing the risks posed by rising temperature and dryness due to climate change."


id: ba450a51eabfb66555cd83fac51355eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26841
content:
"The traditional agriculture of Mapuche Indigenous Peoples in Chile includes a series of practices that result in a \r\nsystem that is more resilient to climate and non-climate stressors. Practices include water management, native seed \r\nconservation and exchange with other producers (trafkintu), crop rotation, polyculture and tree-crop association. \r\nSimilar practices can be found in Mayan communities in Guatemala at the other end of the sub-continent."


id: ce6662f5e38995275e9628b0d6b8aea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 30007
content:
"Despite the increasing recognition and integration of IK in adaptation practices and policies in the region, \r\nimportant barriers for a more effective and transformative integration remain. Some of the most relevant barriers \r\ninclude limited participation of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in adaptation planning and the lack \r\nof sufficient consideration of non-climatic socioeconomic drivers of vulnerability such as poverty and inequality. \r\nAlso, scientific knowledge is commonly prioritised over traditional IKLK. However, some transformative efforts are \r\nemerging. Bolivian Indigenous organisations represent a notable example by contesting normative conceptions of \r\ndevelopment as economic growth and replacing them with more comprehensive views like harmony with Mother \r\nEarth and 'Sumak Kawsay' or 'Good Living'."


id: 5e759d8252a2d37333c57a66f886192f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12397
content:
"Several strategies have been proposed to overcome existing barriers, including building effective and respectful \r\npartnerships among Indigenous and non-Indigenous researchers, co-producing climate-change-relevant knowledge \r\nand recognising Indigenous Peoples as active participants in the continual development of autonomous strategies to \r\npreserve their practices, beliefs and knowledge. The implementation of these and other strategies can significantly \r\nenhance adaptation planning and action in the region."


id: e6fe57492b51d9524def0b85ae98da7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 33830
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: Birgit Bednar-Friedl (Austria), Robbert Biesbroek (The Netherlands), \r\nDaniela N. Schmidt (UK/Germany)"


id: b94928a473288042849cf9ff52feb686
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26687
content:
"Contributing Authors: Magnus Benzie (Sweden), Pam Berry (UK), Sara Burbi (UK), Erika \r\nCoppola (Italy), Mladen Domazet (Croatia), Frank Ewert (Germany), Federica Gasbarro (Italy), \r\nMatthias Gauly (Italy), Francois Gemenne (Belgium), Peter Greve (Austria/Germany), Ana Iglesias \r\n(Spain), Elizabeth Kendon (UK), Heidi Kreibich (Germany), Nikos Koutsias (Greece), Anna Laine\u0002Petajakangas (Finland), Dimitris Lalas (Greece), Cristina Linares Gil (Spain), Danijela Markovic \r\n(Germany), Sadie McEvoy (The Netherlands/Ireland), Ana Mijic (UK), Raya Muttarak (Austria/\r\nThailand), Rita Nogherotto (Italy), Hans Orru (Estonia), Mark Parrington (UK), Jeff Price (UK), \r\nKaisa Raitio (Sweden), Marta Guadalupe Rivera Ferre (Spain), Jan C. Semenza (Switzerland), \r\nRuben Valbuena (UK), Michelle van Vliet (The Netherlands), Heidi Webber (Germany), Laura \r\nWendling (Finland), Katherine Yates (UK), Monika Zurek (UK)"


id: 9d3b6d2e54fc599628354d09a91ceb8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22267
content:
"Bednar-Friedl, B., R. Biesbroek, D.N. Schmidt, P. Alexander, K.Y. Borsheim, J. Carnicer, E. Georgopoulou, M. Haasnoot, \r\nG. Le Cozannet, P. Lionello, O. Lipka, C. Mollmann, V. Muccione, T. Mustonen, D. Piepenburg, and L.Whitmarsh, 2022: \r\nEurope. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the \r\nSixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, \r\nE.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. \r\nCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1817-1927, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.015."


id: 6db2853b70486b7704f2a72a4af8d575
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14865
content:
"Warming in Europe will continue to rise faster than the global \r\nmean, widening risk disparities across Europe in the 21st century \r\n(high confidence). Largely negative impacts are projected for southern \r\nregions (e.g., increased cooling needs and water demand, losses in \r\nagricultural production and water scarcity) and some short-term benefits \r\nare anticipated in the north (e.g., increased crop yields and forest growth) \r\n{13.1.4;13.2.1;13.3.1;13.4.1;13.5.1;13.6;13.7.1;13.10.2}."


id: 27ca61cc0c98e14886ee2a65a1565a46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3668
content:
"Our current 1.1degC warmer world is already affecting natural and \r\nhuman systems in Europe (very high confidence1\r\n). Since AR5, there \r\nhas been a substantial increase in detected or attributed impacts of \r\nclimate change in Europe, including extreme events (high confidence). \r\nImpacts of compound hazards of warming and precipitation have \r\nbecome more frequent (medium confidence). Climate change has \r\nresulted in losses of, and damages to, people, ecosystems, food \r\nsystems, infrastructure, energy and water availability, public health \r\nand the economy (very high confidence) {13.1.4;13.2.1;13.3.1;13.4.1;\r\n13.5.1;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.8.1;13.10.1}."


id: b30488a9a036366b3e1c8f7b8820e851
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Four key risks (KR) have been identified for Europe, with most \r\nbecoming more severe at 2degC global warming levels (GWL) \r\ncompared with 1.5degC GWL in scenarios with low to medium \r\nadaptation (high confidence). From 3degC GWL and even with high \r\nadaptation, severe risks remain for many sectors in Europe (high \r\nconfidence). Key risks are: mortality and morbidity of people and \r\necosystems disruptions due to heat (KR1: heat); loss in agricultural \r\nproduction due to combined heat and droughts (KR2: agriculture); \r\nwater scarcity across sectors (KR3: water scarcity); impacts of floods \r\non people, economies and infrastructure (KR4: flooding) {13.10.2}."


id: 7f502d7af2558206446c9786d9a6ecac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"As impacts vary both across and within European regions, \r\nsectors, and societal groups (high confidence), inequalities \r\nhave deepened (medium confidence). Southern regions tend \r\nto be more negatively affected, while some benefits have been \r\nobserved, alongside negative impacts in northern and central \r\nregions. Traditional lifestyles, for example in the European Arctic, are \r\nthreatened already (high confidence). Poor households have lower \r\ncapacity to adapt to, and recover from, impacts (medium confidence) \r\n{13.5.1;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.8.1.;13.8.2;13.10.1;Box 13.2}."


id: f53af28fa90c3a99b421cd69d48a63df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"KR1: The number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress \r\nwill increase two- to threefold at 3degC compared with 1.5degC \r\nGWL (high confidence). Risk consequences will become severe \r\nmore rapidly in Southern and Western Central Europe and urban areas \r\n(high confidence). Thermal comfort hours during summer will decrease \r\nsignificantly (high confidence), by as much as 74% in Southern Europe \r\nat 3degC GWL. Above 3degC GWL, there are limits to the adaptation potential \r\nof people and existing health systems, particularly in Southern Europe, \r\nEastern Europe and areas where health systems are under pressure \r\n(high confidence) {13.6.1;13.6.2;13.7.1;13.7.2;13.8.1;13.10.2.1}."


id: 184a4278a437f27a0e03583c7ece6a13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1313
content:
"The range of options available to deal with climate-change \r\nimpacts has increased in most of Europe since AR5 (high \r\nconfidence). Growing public perception and adaptation knowledge \r\nin public and private sectors, the increasing number of policy and \r\nlegal frameworks, and dedicated spending on adaptation are all \r\nclear indications that the availability of options has expanded (high \r\nconfidence). Information provision, technical measures and government \r\npolicies are the most common adaptation actions implemented. \r\nNature-based Solutions (NbS) that restore or recreate ecosystems, \r\nbuild resilience and produce synergies with adaptation and mitigation \r\nare increasingly used. Many cities are taking adaptation action, but \r\nwith large differences in level of ambition and implementation (high \r\nconfidence) {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.10.2;\r\n13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3}."


id: 6a9f8459c58811c4a7ab21973393f9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"KR1: Warming will decrease suitable habitat space for current \r\nterrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their \r\ncomposition, increasing in severity above 2degC GWL (very high\r\nconfidence). Fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, \r\nthreatening biodiversity and carbon sinks (medium confidence). \r\nAdaptation actions (e.g., habitat restoration and protection, fire and \r\nforest management, and agroecology) can increase the resilience of \r\necosystems and their services. Trade-offs between adaptation and \r\nmitigation options (e.g., coastal infrastructure and NbS) will result in \r\nrisks for the integrity and function of ecosystems (medium confidence) \r\n{13.3.1;13.3.2;13.4.1;13.4.2;13.10.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in \r\nChapter 3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2}."


id: ce4d0109f8537f2516f95d9da1883c38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29985
content:
"Observed adaptation actions are largely incremental with only \r\na few examples of local transformative action; adaptation \r\nactions have demonstrated different degrees of effectiveness \r\nin reducing impacts and feasibility of implementation (high \r\nconfidence). For example, adaptation actions such as flood defences \r\nand early warning systems have reduced flood damages and heat\u0002related mortality in parts of Europe. Despite progress in adaptation, \r\nimpacts are observed. Adaptation actions in the private sector are \r\nlimited, with many businesses and regions remaining under-prepared. \r\nA gap remains between planning and implementation of adaptation \r\naction (high confidence) {13.2.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.11}."


id: 42f4da57bcfd740eeacd6a367b0ff173
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"KR2: Due to a combination of heat and drought, substantive \r\nagricultural production losses are projected for most European \r\nareas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains \r\nin Northern Europe (high confidence). Yield losses for maize \r\nwill reach 50% in response to 3degC GWL, especially in Southern \r\nEurope. Yields of some crops (e.g., wheat) may increase in Northern \r\nEurope if warming does not exceed 2degC (medium confidence). "


id: 9655539425334c7dd04687987e9c59d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21166
content:
"Climate risks from outside Europe are emerging due to a \r\ncombination of the position of European countries in the global \r\nsupply chain and shared resources (high confidence). There \r\nis emerging evidence that climate risks in Europe may also impact \r\nfinancial markets, food production and marine resources beyond \r\nEurope. Exposure of European countries to inter-regional risks can be \r\nreduced by international governance and collaboration on adaptation \r\nin other regions (medium confidence) {13.5.2;13.9.1;13.9.2;13.11; \r\nCross-Chapter Box INTEREG in Chapter16}."


id: 28cc45e0717a5c9db3c9d70cc55e34c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3852
content:
"While irrigation is an effective adaptation option for agriculture, the \r\nability to adapt using irrigation will be increasingly limited by water \r\navailability, especially in response to GWL above 3degC (high confidence) \r\n{13.5.1;13.5.2;13.10.2.2}."


id: bfb9a9318291571c86298999e0fd5565
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27723
content:
"KR3: Risk of water scarcity will become high at 1.5degC and very \r\nhigh at 3degC GWL in Southern Europe (high confidence), and \r\nincrease from moderate to high in Western Central Europe \r\n(medium confidence). In Southern Europe, more than a third of \r\nthe population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2degC GWL; under \r\n3degC GWL, this risk will double, and significant economic losses in \r\nwater- and energy-dependent sectors may arise (medium confidence). \r\nFor Western Central and Southern Europe, and for many cities, the \r\nrisk of water scarcity will be strongly increasing under 3degC GWL. \r\nAdaptation becomes increasingly difficult at 3degC GWL and above, \r\ndue to geophysical and technological limits; hard limits are likely2\r\n first \r\nreached in parts of Southern Europe {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.1;13.10.2.3}."


id: 2edbe3453eb55c5b22077b7775515c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4805
content:
"KR4: Due to warming, changes in precipitation and sea level rise \r\n(SLR), risks to people and infrastructures from coastal, riverine and \r\npluvial flooding will increase in Europe (high confidence). Risks of \r\ninundation and extreme flooding will increase with the accelerating pace \r\nof SLR along Europe's coasts (high confidence). Above 3degC GWL, damage \r\ncosts and people affected by precipitation and river flooding may double. \r\nCoastal flood damage is projected to increase at least tenfold by the end \r\nof the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation \r\nand mitigation (high confidence). Sea level rise represents an existential \r\nthreat for coastal communities and their cultural heritage, particularly \r\nbeyond 2100 {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.2;13.10.2.4;Box  13.1; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox SLR in Chapter 3)."


id: a1e96aa67a07744405c1834b8a911cdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23041
content:
"In many parts of Europe, existing and planned adaptation measures \r\nare not sufficient to avoid the residual risk, especially beyond 1.5degC \r\nGWL (high confidence). Residual risk can result in losses of habitat and \r\necosystem services, heat related deaths (KR1), crop failures (KR2), water \r\nrationing during droughts in Southern Europe (KR3) and loss of land \r\n(KR4) (medium confidence). At 3degC GWL and beyond, a combination \r\nof many, maybe even all, adaptation options are needed, including \r\ntransformational changes, to reduce residual risk (medium confidence). \r\n{13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11}."


id: 7e519dd17913b3c835f4f4fd53c7c72b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"European cities are hotspots for multiple risks of increasing \r\ntemperatures and extreme heat, floods and droughts (high\r\nconfidence). Warming beyond 2degC GWL is projected to result \r\nin widespread impacts on infrastructure and businesses (high \r\nconfidence). These impacts include increased risks for energy supply \r\n(high confidence) and transport infrastructure (medium confidence), \r\nincreases in air conditioning needs (very high confidence) and high \r\nwater demand (high confidence) {13.2.2;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.10.2}."


id: e7de1ede7dfc15aba3fb7598dfa1e7bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Although adaptation is happening across Europe, it is not \r\nimplemented at the scale, depth and speed needed to avoid \r\nthe risks (high confidence). Many sectors and systems, such as \r\nflood risk management, critical infrastructure and reforestation, are \r\non self-reinforcing development paths that can result in lock-ins and \r\nprevent changes needed to reduce risks in the long term and achieve \r\nadaptation targets. Forward-looking and adaptive planning can prevent \r\npath dependencies and maladaptation, and ensure timely action (high \r\nconfidence). Monitoring climate change, socioeconomic developments \r\nand progress on implementation is critical in assessing if and when \r\nfurther actions are needed, and evaluating whether adaptation is \r\nsuccessful {13.2.2;13.10.2;13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DEEP in Chapter 17}."


id: c367eac042b4e6f927c5ffeaada2ef94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"European regions are affected by multiple key risks, with \r\nmore severe consequences in the south than in the north (high \r\nconfidence). These risks may co-occur and amplify each other, but \r\nthere is uncertainty about their interactions and their quantifications. \r\nThere is high confidence that consequences for socioeconomic and \r\nnatural systems will be substantial: the number of people exposed to \r\nKRs and economic losses are projected to at least double at 3degC GWL \r\ncompared with 1.5degC GWL (medium confidence); and increased risks are \r\nalso projected for biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as carbon \r\nregulation. The risks resulting from changes in climatic and non-climatic \r\ndrivers in many sectors is a key gap in knowledge (high confidence). This \r\ngap prevents the precise assessment of systemic risks, socio-ecological \r\ntipping points and limits to adaptation {13.10.2;13.10.3;13.10.4}."


id: 8f8f91987d7155de38d3bc7862bbada7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Systemic barriers constrain the implementation of adaptation \r\noptions in vulnerable sectors, regions and societal groups (high \r\nconfidence). Key barriers are limited resources, lack of private-sector \r\nand citizen engagement, insufficient mobilisation of finance, lack of \r\npolitical leadership and low sense of urgency. Most of the adaptation \r\noptions to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources, \r\ncreating competition and trade-offs, also with mitigation options \r\nand socioeconomic developments (high confidence). Europe will \r\nface difficult decisions balancing these trade-offs. Novel adaptation \r\noptions are pilot tested across Europe, but upscaling remains \r\nchallenging. Prioritisation of options and transitions from incremental \r\nto transformational adaptation are limited due to vested interests, \r\neconomic lock-ins, institutional path dependencies and prevalent \r\npractices, cultures, norms and belief systems {13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3}."


id: fc6ad04b82aba529ee9512c93ebadccb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Several windows of opportunity emerge to accelerate climate \r\nresilient development (CRD) (medium confidence). Such windows \r\nare either institutionalised (e.g., budget cycles, policy reforms and \r\nevaluations, infrastructure investment cycles) or open unexpectedly \r\n(e.g., extreme events, COVID-19 recovery programmes). These \r\nwindows can be used to accelerate action through mainstreaming and \r\ntransformational actions (medium confidence). This CRD is visible in \r\nEuropean cities, particularly in green infrastructure, energy-efficient \r\nbuildings and construction, and where co-benefits (e.g., to health, \r\nbiodiversity) have been identified. Private-sector adaptation takes \r\nplace mostly in response to extreme events or regulatory, shareholder \r\nor consumer pressures and incentives (medium confidence) {13.11.3; \r\nBox 13.3; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7}."


id: 4d260eafed85d535eabf863515e6be50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term \r\nplanning and ensuring timely and adequate implementation (high confidence). Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation pathways \r\nare critical for CRD. Such pathways require consideration of SDGs, \r\ngender and Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) and \r\npractices. The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding \r\nof which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local \r\ncontext (high confidence). Long lead times for nature-based and \r\ninfrastructure solutions or planned relocation require implementation \r\nin the coming decade to reduce risks in time. To close the adaptation \r\ngap, political commitment, persistence and consistent action across \r\nscales of government, and upfront mobilisation of human and financial \r\ncapital, is key (high confidence), even when the benefits are not \r\nimmediately visible {13.2.2;13.8;13.11; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in \r\nChapter 18}."


id: 332ea77245c011f134e2af425f46cc68
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"solution space is defined as the space within which opportunities and \r\nconstraints determine why, how, when and who adapts to climate risks \r\n(Haasnoot et al., 2020a). Section 13.9 discusses impacts and adaptation \r\nbeyond Europe, followed by the key risks for Europe (Section 13.10). \r\nThe chapter ends with an assessment of the adaptation solution space, \r\nCRD pathways and SDGs (13.11), although recognising that scientific \r\nliterature on these aspects is only slowly beginning to emerge."


id: 3d9895db78073efe777f1bcad8e91444
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"This regional chapter on climate-change impacts, vulnerabilities and \r\nadaptations in Europe examines the impacts on the sectors, regions and \r\nvulnerable populations of Europe, assesses the causes of vulnerability \r\nand analyses ways to adapt, thereby considering socioeconomic \r\ndevelopments, land-use change and other non-climatic drivers. \r\nCompared with AR5 and in the context of the Paris Agreement (2015), we \r\nplace emphasis on the planned and implemented solutions, assess their \r\nfeasibility and effectiveness, and consider the Sustainable Development \r\nGoals (SDG) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Global \r\nwarming level (GWL) refers to global climate-change emissions relative \r\nto pre-industrial levels, expressed as global surface air temperature \r\n(Section 1.6.2; Chen et al., 2021)."


id: cc99ad09d809909fab23efa493ed80c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"With the rapidly growing body of scientific literature since WGII \r\nAR5 (Callaghan et  al., 2020), our assessment prioritises systematic \r\nreviews, meta-analyses, and synthesis papers and reports. Feasibility \r\nand effectiveness assessments use revised methods developed for the \r\nSpecial Report of Global warming of 1.5degC (de Coninck et al., 2018; \r\nSingh et al., 2020). Protocols, as well as supporting material for figures \r\nand tables, can be found in the Supplementary Material."


id: 53fa2b082cce74628263de76a7916569
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The geographical scope and subdivision of European land, coastal and \r\nocean regions is largely the same as in WGII AR5 Chapter 23 (Kovats \r\net al., 2014): Southern Europe (SEU), Western Central Europe (WCE), \r\nEastern Europe (EEU) and Northern Europe (NEU). Note that WGI \r\nassesses a larger region for the Mediterranean (MED) which includes \r\nNorth Africa and the Middle East compared with the assessment \r\nin this chapter (SEU). The European part of the Arctic region is not "


id: d711f432607db4e1ea727a9437c8186f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"The chapter generally follows the overall structure of AR6 WGII. We \r\nfirst present our point of departure (the present section) followed by \r\nthe key sectors, starting with water, as water is interconnected and of \r\nfundamental importance to subsequent sections (Sections 13.2-13.8). \r\nFor each section, we assess the observed impacts and projected risks, \r\nsolution space and adaptation options, and knowledge gaps. The "


id: 40f760befea5c2f888e25f281ca47d56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Polygon delineations represent the \r\nboundaries used for the regional synthesis\r\nof historical trends and future climate \r\nchange projections used in the Assessment \r\nReports of the IPCC WGI."


id: b455a6f23e43005de6ae512c7dc37c71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"* Different from the WGI Mediterranean (MED) \r\nwhich includes also the eastern and southern \r\ncountries bordering the Mediterranean."


id: 1667106109fd129a4e0bedbe245cb904
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Figure 13.1 |  Geographical subdivision of land (a,b,c,d) and ocean (i,ii,iii) regions of Europe. The overlay represents the WGI AR6 (IPCC, 2021) subdivisions for \r\nclimate-change projections of land, while the colour coding indicates the European countries (or, in case of the Russian Federation, the European part of the country, EEU, used for \r\nthis chapter). Note that in the WGI AR6 report, MED includes both Southern Europe and Northern Africa, while this chapter includes only the northern (European) part of the MED \r\nregion. To distinguish between the two the region is called SEU here."


id: b0da807ac9f6ce4622bb9bbb922bfed4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 25341
content:
"systematically assessed here, as it is extensively captured in Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 6. Information relevant to Europe is also synthesised \r\nin the CCPs (Cross-Chapter Papers), including European biodiversity \r\nhotspots (Cross-Chapter Paper 1), coastal cities and settlements \r\n(Cross-Chapter Paper 2), Mediterranean regions (Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n4) and mountains (Cross-Chapter Paper 5). European seas are broadly \r\ndivided by latitude into (i) European Arctic waters (NEUS), (ii) European \r\ntemperate seas (TEUS) and (iii) southern seas with the Mediterranean \r\nand the Black Sea (SEUS) (Figure 13.1)."


id: 5819ff38b5f0ce2c46ca4d70ea97e302
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 11368
content:
"weather and climatic events in European countries is low to moderate \r\ncompared with the rest of the world (Figure 13.2d)."


id: ca805e369c81c100ee44a9d00b4dc1e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The main findings of previous reports, particularly the WGII AR5 (Kovats \r\net  al., 2014) and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5degC (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2018), highlighted the impacts of warming and rainfall variations \r\nand their extremes on Europe, particularly SEU and mountainous areas. \r\nAt 2degC GWL, 9% of Europe's population was projected to be exposed \r\nto aggravated water scarcity, and 8% of the territory of Europe were \r\ncharacterised to have a high or very high sensitivity to desertification \r\n(UNEP/UNECE, 2016). These impacts are driven by changes in \r\ntemperature, precipitation, irrigation developments, population growth, \r\nagricultural policies and markets (EEA, 2017a). Heat is a main hazard for \r\nhigh-latitude ecosystems (Kovats et al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2018; Hock \r\net al., 2019). The majority of mountain glaciers lost mass during the past \r\ntwo decades, and permafrost in the European Alps and Scandinavia "


id: 805325bc8a0883708d4ad7baa6765995
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The adaptive capacity, as measured by the GDP per capita, tends to be \r\nhigher in northern and western parts of Europe (Figure 13.2a). In recent \r\ndecades, climate change has led to substantial losses and damages to \r\npeople and assets across Europe, mostly from riverine flooding, heatwaves \r\nand storms (Figure 13.2b). Public concern about climate change, which \r\nis an indicator of the intention to mitigate and adapt, is particularly high \r\nin parts of SEU and WCE (Figure 13.2c). Current vulnerability to extreme "


id: 507118d80c395342496f718a39801051
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 10103
content:
"Figure 13.2 |  Indicators of reported damages to people and assets, vulnerability and adaptive capacity across European countries:\r\n(a) GDP per capita (average 2013-2018), in constant 2011 international dollars (World Bank, 2020); "


id: a106c6b9a76d8763789f2278882e9bd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"(c) level of climate-change concern among a representative weighted sample of residents 15 years and older in private households (European Social Survey, 2020); and \r\n(d) vulnerability to disasters and humanitarian crisis in 2021. The index is based on socioeconomic factors (development, inequality and aid dependency) and vulnerable groups \r\n(DRMKC, 2020)."


id: 6e16e25de27f8dcc1fc218cefbf72faf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"is decreasing (Hock et  al., 2019). In Central Europe, Scandinavia and \r\nCaucasus, mountain glaciers were projected to lose 60-80% of their mass \r\nby the end of the 21st century (Hock et al., 2019). The combined impacts \r\non tourism, agriculture, forestry, energy, health and infrastructure were \r\nsuggested to make SEU highly vulnerable and increase the risks of failures \r\nand vulnerability for urban areas (Kovats et al., 2014). Previous reports \r\nstated that the adaptive capacity in Europe is high compared with other \r\nregions of the world, but that there are also limits to adaptation from \r\nphysical, social, economic and technological factors. Evidence suggested \r\nthat staying within 1.5degC GWL would strongly increase Europe's ability \r\nto adapt to climate change (de Coninck et al., 2018)."


id: 3577c2b73fadab4d3b0340f0b9a02724
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"for more drivers (Figure  13.3). Mean and maximum temperatures, \r\nfrequencies of warm days and nights, and heatwaves have increased \r\nsince 1950, while the corresponding cold indices have decreased \r\n(high confidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). \r\nAverage warming will be larger than the global mean in all of Europe, \r\nwith largest winter warming in NEU and EEU and largest summer \r\nwarming in MED (high confidence) (Gutierrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe \r\net  al., 2021). An increase in hot days and a decrease in cold days \r\nare very likely (Figure  13.4a,b). Projections suggest a substantial \r\nreduction in European ice glacier volumes and in snow cover below \r\nelevations of 1500-2000 m, as well as further permafrost thawing \r\nand degradation, during the 21st century, even at a low GWL (high \r\nconfidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: c6b46c3444fcdb4db3e7012e6019efd3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The assessment of climate change in WGI AR6 concludes that during \r\nrecent decades mean precipitation has increased over NEU, WCE \r\nand EEU, while magnitude and sign of observed trends depend \r\nsubstantially on time period and study region in MED (medium \r\nconfidence) (Douville et al., 2021; Gutierrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021). Precipitation extremes have increased in NEU and EEU \r\n(high confidence) (Seneviratne et  al., 2021), vary spatially in WCE "


id: bd6807a06bf147166cb061e2cbe1d7e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Changes in several climatic-impact drivers have already emerged in all \r\nregions of Europe: increases in mean temperature and extreme heat, \r\nand decreases in cold spells (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021; Seneviratne \r\net al., 2021). Lake and river ice has decreased in NEU, WCE and MED, \r\nand sea ice in NEUS (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). \r\nWith increasing warming, confidence in projections is increasing "


id: 4cfe568d8d2fc32532b9766fdef9bb60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"3 = There are subregional differences with decreases or no change for the \r\nsouthern part of Europe, such as the southern Mediterranean."


id: e2668505dc67ffaa9a381a55227a4661
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Figure 13.3 |  Observed and projected direction of change in climate-impact drivers at 1.5degC and 4degC GWL for European sub-regions and European seas.\r\n(Assessment from Gutierrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 55ebad6a343635cb74164300e8f17e04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"(k,l) sea level rise (SLR) and coastal population (Merkens et al., 2016). The SLR data consider the long-term period (2081-2100) and SSP1-2.6 for (i) and SSP3-7.0 for (j)."


id: ba23b34e7e8e940b6197bdd5aeb6cc44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"2021) with low confidence in the direction of change in NEU, WCE and \r\nEEU at 1.5degC GWL. MED is projected to be most affected within Europe \r\nwith all types of droughts increasing for 1.5degC (medium confidence) \r\nand 4degC GWL (high confidence). At 4degC GWL, hydrological droughts \r\nin NEU, WCE and EEU will increase (medium confidence). Projections \r\nfor the 21st century show increases in storms across all of Europe \r\n(medium confidence) for >2degC GWL with a decrease in their frequency \r\nin the MED (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: dfcd8deb5effe5fcae37f7a8f376ef02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"(medium confidence) and have not changed in MED (low confidence). \r\nFor >2degC GWL, of mean precipitation in NEU in winter is increasing and \r\ndecreasing in MED in summer (high confidence). A widespread increase \r\nof precipitation extremes is projected for >2degC GWL for all sub-regions \r\n(high confidence), except for MED where no change or decrease \r\nis projected in some areas (Figure  13.4c,d; Gutierrez et  al., 2021; \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021). WGI assessed projections for meteorological, \r\nagricultural/ecological and hydrological drought (Ranasinghe et  al., "


id: ac95f07162ce51f439e1563b688878a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"driver so far (Pranzini et al., 2015; Luijendijk et al., 2018; Mentaschi \r\net  al., 2018; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). SLR will increase coastal \r\nerosion of sandy shorelines (high confidence) (Ranasinghe et  al., \r\n2021), but there is low confidence in quantitative values assessment \r\nof erosion rates and amounts (Athanasiou et al., 2019; Le Cozannet \r\net al., 2019; Thieblemont et al., 2019). Without nourishment or other \r\nnatural or artificial barriers to erosion, sandy shorelines could retreat \r\nby about 100 m in Europe at 4degC GWL; limiting warming to 3degC GWL \r\ncould reduce this value by one-third (Vousdoukas et al., 2020)."


id: e811670e35761a3e528d7d11621555d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Sea surface warming between 0.25degC and 1degC has been observed in all \r\nregions over recent decades (high confidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021) \r\nand are projected to continue increasing (high confidence), particularly \r\nin the SEUS and at the NEUS (Figure 13.4g,h; Gutierrez et al., 2021). \r\nSalinity has increased in the SEUS and decreased in NEUS and is \r\nprojected to continue (medium confidence) (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). \r\nEuropean waters have been, and will continue, acidifying (virtually \r\ncertain) (Eyring et al., 2021; Szopa et al., 2021), resulting in a mean \r\ndecrease of surface pH of about 0.1 and 0.3 pH units at 1.5degC and 3degC \r\nGWL with the largest changes at high latitudes (Gutierrez et al., 2021)."


id: aaa46ddb5248ef8722ce575c49917304
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Relative sea level has risen along the European coastlines (Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021), regionally mitigated by post-glacial rise of land masses in \r\nScandinavia (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). This SLR will very likely continue \r\nto increase during the 21st century (Figure 13.4k,l) (high confidence), \r\nwith regional deviations from global mean SLR (low confidence). \r\nExtreme water levels, coastal floods and sandy coastline recession \r\nare projected to increase along many European coastlines (high \r\nconfidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 7ac9c561b1ebe922b067140f069ac5e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 16901
content:
"Precipitation has raised river flood hazards in WCE and the UK by 11% \r\nper decade from 1960 to 2010 and decreased in EEU and SEU by 23% per \r\ndecade (Douville et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). The most recent \r\nthree decades had the highest number of floods in the past 500 years \r\nwith increases in summer (Bloschl et al., 2020). Economic flood damages \r\nincreased strongly, reflecting increasing exposure of people and assets \r\n(Visser et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Merz et al., 2021)."


id: c03969a8e1e4d599c9c2126c97ce502f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Pluvial flooding and flash floods due to intense rainfall constitute \r\nmost flood events in SEU and a substantial risk in other European \r\nregions (Cross-Chapter Paper 4; Llasat et al., 2016; Rudd et al., 2020). \r\nThe majority (56%) of flood events between 1860 and 2016 were \r\nflash floods (Paprotny et  al., 2018a). These floods had considerable \r\nimpacts including danger to human lives, for example, causing total \r\neconomic damage of 1 billion USD in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011 \r\n(Wojcik et  al., 2013), damage to private households of more than \r\n70 million EUR in Munster (Germany) in 2014 (Spekkers et al., 2017) \r\nand during the 2021 floods in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands \r\nover 200 deaths, damage to thousands of homes and disrupted \r\nwater and electricity supply (Kreienkamp et  al., 2021). The intensity \r\nand frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected to increase (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure  13.3; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). Combined with "


id: ed925e64c3b18a1afccc2d3bce1ffb50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Groundwater abstraction rates reach up to 100 million m3 yr-1 across \r\nWCE and SEU, and exceed 100 million m3 yr-1 in parts of SEU (Wada, \r\n2016). Low recharge rates lead to a depletion of groundwater resources \r\nin parts of SEU and WCE (Doll et al., 2014; Wada, 2016; de Graaf et al., \r\n2017), increasing the impacts on water scarcity in SEU. Groundwater \r\npumping and declines in groundwater discharge already threaten \r\nenvironmental flow limits in many European catchments, especially in \r\nSEU, extending to almost all basins and sub-basins within the next \r\n30-50 years (de Graaf et al., 2019)."


id: f45424b9f1348d736a338e5bd482d7ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"increasing urbanisation, the risk of pluvial flooding is projected to \r\nincrease (Westra et al., 2014; Rosenzweig et al., 2018; Papalexiou and \r\nMontanari, 2019). Small catchments, steep river channels and cities \r\nare particularly vulnerable due to large areas of impermeable surfaces \r\nwhere water cannot penetrate (Section 13.6)."


id: 344f5048ae2fe19b05aece6104a79710
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The combined effect of increasing water demand and successive \r\ndry climatic conditions further exacerbates groundwater depletion \r\nand lowers groundwater levels in SEU but also WCE (Goderniaux \r\net al., 2015). Declines in groundwater recharge of up to 30% further \r\nincrease groundwater depletion (Aeschbach-Hertig and Gleeson, \r\n2012) especially in SEU and semiarid to arid regions (Moutahir et al., \r\n2017). Even in WCE and NEU, projected increases in groundwater \r\nabstraction will impact groundwater discharge, threatening sustaining \r\nenvironmental flows under dry conditions (de Graaf et al., 2019)."


id: 3df3a62fe6ab0710c424c1d13972a6f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"The risks for soil moisture drought are projected to increase in WCE \r\nand SEU for all climate scenarios (Grillakis, 2019; Tramblay et al., 2020; \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021). At 3degC GWL compared with 1.5degC GWL, the \r\ndrought area will increase by 40% and the population under drought \r\nby up to 42%, especially affecting SEU, and to a lesser extent in WCE \r\n(Samaniego et al., 2018 )."


id: cb27bec83a734fb5d02d64ae032fa8d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Venice and its lagoon are a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This socio-ecological system is the result of millennia of interactions between \r\npeople and the natural environment. It is exposed to climatic and non-climatic hazards: more frequent floods, warming, pollution, \r\ninvasive species, reduction of salt marshes, hydrodynamic and bathymetric changes, and waves generated by cruise ships and boat traffic."


id: 404f9e926e55c56f4ae053130e2ecb8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"The elevation of the average city pedestrian level and of its inner historic area are, respectively, 105 and 55 cm above the present relative \r\nmean sea level (RMSL). Consequently, even small surges and compound events cause floods when they coincide with high tide (Lionello \r\net al., 2021a). During the 20th century, RMSL rose at about 2.5 mm yr-1 due to SLR and land subsidence (Zanchettin et al., 2021). The \r\nfrequency of floods affecting the city has increased from once per decade in the first half of the 20th century to 40 times per decade in \r\nthe period 2010-2019 (Figure Box 13.1.1a)."


id: 4b6ec22a786c1057078d24cf0ca50f4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"In 1973, the Italian government established a legal framework for safeguarding Venice and its lagoon. Construction of the flood protection \r\nsystem started in 2003 and was used for the first time in October 2020 (Lionello et al., 2021b). This system of mobile barriers (MoSE) \r\ncloses the lagoon inlets to avoid floods when needed, while under normal conditions they lay on the seabed, thus allowing ship traffic \r\nand the exchange between the lagoon and the sea (Molinaroli et al., 2019). To prevent flooding of the central monument area, additional \r\nmeasures have been proposed including inlets, expansion of salt marshes and pumping seawater into deep brackish aquifers to raise the \r\ncity's level (Umgiesser, 1999; Umgiesser, 2004; Teatini et al., 2011)."


id: 2ab5bd2fd82f00a9b8611696b7ef2eef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Figure Box 13.1.1 |  Venice sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding: (a) evolution of relative and mean sea level in Venice and decadal frequency of floods \r\nabove the safeguard level in the city centre (Frederikse et al., 2020; Lionello et al., 2021a; Lionello et al., 2021b; Zanchettin et al., 2021); (b) projected relative SLR at \r\nthe Venetian coast (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021); \"very likely\" corresponds to 5-95th percentile range, \"likely\" to 17-83rd percentile range; (c) timing when critical relative \r\nsea level thresholds will be reached depending on scenarios and confidence level (Lionello, 2012; Umgiesser, 2020; Lionello et al., 2021a), the upper limit of the medium \r\nconfidence range under SSP5-8.5 represents a low-likelihood, high-impact storyline, low confidence processes include ice sheet instability; (d) Landsat view of Venice and \r\nits lagoon with the three inlets connecting it to the Adriatic Sea."


id: c9045f942e437dc065864a948bc03cc2
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content:
"reducing vulnerability to coastal and riverine flooding (Jongman et al., \r\n2015; Kreibich et al., 2015; Bouwer and Jonkman, 2018). Consequently, \r\nfatalities due to river flooding have decreased in Europe, despite similar \r\nnumbers of people exposed (1990-2010 compared with 1980-1989) \r\n(Jongman et al., 2015; Paprotny et al., 2018a)."


id: 41546c85f3f3964ce71349fe4515f271
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 7676
content:
"Water temperatures in rivers and lakes have increased over the past \r\ncentury by ~1-3degC in major European rivers (CBS, 2014; EEA, 2017a; \r\nWoolway et al., 2017). Warming is accelerating for all European river \r\nbasins (Wanders et al., 2019) increasing by 0.8degC in response to 1.5degC \r\nGWL and 1.2degC for 3degC GWL relative to 1971-2000 (van Vliet et al., \r\n2016a) aggravated by declines in summer river flow."


id: bd1fd6041fc3edac1158c191fd1a1fdb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Further protection against coastal flooding is considered economically \r\nbeneficial for densely populated areas (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018; \r\nTiggeloven et al., 2020). At least 83% of flood damages due to coastal \r\nflooding could be avoided by elevating dykes along ~23-32% of \r\nEurope's coastline by 2100 (RCP4.5-SSP1, RCP8.5-SSP5) (Vousdoukas \r\net al., 2020). Limitations of building flood defences include cost-benefit \r\nconsiderations in rural areas, available land and social acceptability in \r\ndensely populated areas (Haasnoot et  al., 2018; Hinkel et  al., 2018; \r\nMeyerhoff et al., 2021)."


id: 2dfa4aa0340a6c253a958f0f16206a91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 4666
content:
"(Ground)water extractions or drainage have caused saltwater \r\nintrusions (Rasmussen et  al., 2013; Ketabchi et  al., 2016). During \r\nsummer, seawater will also penetrate estuaries further upstream in \r\nresponse to reduced river flow and SLR, resulting in more frequent \r\nclosure of water inlets in the downstream part of the rivers in a period \r\nwhen water is most needed (high agreement, low evidence) (e.g., \r\nHaasnoot et al., 2020b)."


id: c82a11e6030eb0ce3f0a9da56667bd02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 29072
content:
"Water laws, policies and guidance documents increasingly mainstream \r\nclimate impacts and adaptation options (Runhaar et al., 2018; Mehryar \r\nand Surminski, 2021), though not everywhere. Differences are apparent, \r\nfor example, in coastal adaptation where most, but not all, countries \r\nare planning for SLR (Figure 13.5; McEvoy et al., 2021). Although the \r\nplanning horizon of 2100 and 1-m SLR are most common (adjusted for \r\nlocal conditions), there are significant differences between countries \r\n(e.g., the high-end SLR value in 2100 ranges from 0.3 to 3 m), which \r\nmay lead to unequal impacts over time (McEvoy et al., 2021)."


id: d2537564df96964a6064ca107a36b273
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Across Europe a range of measures have been implemented to address \r\nflood risk (Figure 13.6), with protection as the most used strategy (high \r\nconfidence). Early warning and flood protection have been successful in "


id: a49f975c82f3288cdf70833b3d30ef7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 23463
content:
"Preparation for sea level rise (SLR) is \r\nongoing, but the amount of SLR \r\nconsidered and the amount of people at \r\nrisk varies by country.**"


id: 9898d37424123bd4b666c7229e6c7d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"(a) map of countries in Europe summarising the amount of SLR each country is planning for, at different time horizons (blue bars), and the present population (2020) at risk of a \r\n100-year coastal flood event (orange bars) (Haasnoot et al., 2021b). The amounts of SLR and time horizons reflect national guidance or planning (local or project-based levels may \r\ndiffer) (McEvoy et al., 2021); "


id: 1004b95d690a0098ec84753246427214
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"(b) projected population at risk to experience a 1-in-10-year coastal flood event under RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP5 assuming present protection and population levels, as well \r\nas population change according to, respectively, SSP1 and SSP5, based on Merkens (2016); "


id: 6192aab7318bfd90db5db3c5920e52b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"(c) projected population at risk to experience a 1-in-100-year coastal flood event under RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP5, assuming the present protection and population levels, as \r\nwell as population change according to, respectively, SSP1 and SSP5, based on Merkens (2016) (based on Haasnoot et al., 2021b)."


id: ef324b2f3bd0bb75a9819c11a596403b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 35101
content:
"Figure 13.6 |  Effectiveness and feasibility of water-related adaptation options to achieve objectives under increasing climate hazards (Section SM13.9; \r\nTable SM13.1)"


id: 2d043f8acd260c2912feb64263c798ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Such measures include (forest) restoration for upstream retention, \r\nrestoration of river channels and widening riverbeds for natural flood \r\nretention (Kreibich et  al., 2015; Barth and Doll, 2016; Wyzga et  al., \r\n2018). Natural retention areas are estimated to be the most effective \r\noption to reduce riverine flood risk across Europe in the 21st century, \r\nfollowed by protection (low evidence) (Dottori et al., 2020)."


id: cad493e76c78a2b7217f7a257f0da7fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 29471
content:
"Westerschelde) retreat has been applied to restore salt marshes and \r\nto aid coastal defence (Haasnoot et  al., 2019; Kiesel et  al., 2020; \r\nLincke and Hinkel, 2021)."


id: 69de042d5b92e1b008b614dc6d86ecbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Structural flood protection (e.g., levees) is considered economically \r\nbeneficial in densely populated areas (Alfieri et al., 2016; Dottori et al., \r\n2020) and could reduce flood damage by ~45% as estimated under \r\n1.5degC GWL and ~70% under 3degC GWL (Dottori et al., 2020)."


id: a7184333c802f7cffc82e09622a1d9cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Wet and dry proofing of buildings can be applied at household level. \r\nWhile measures taken at household level can reduce the risk of flooding, \r\nthere is often insufficient investment (medium confidence) (Bamberg \r\net  al., 2017; Aerts et  al., 2018). Reasons include low awareness or \r\nunder-estimation of the risk (Kellens et al., 2013), low perceived efficacy \r\nof adaptation measures (van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019) and lack \r\nof financial support (Kreibich, 2011). In the long term, risk reduction "


id: e4c1ecfdbd42bdf86216556473a19039
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Providing more room for water through NbS is increasingly considered \r\n(Kreibich et al., 2015) as they can reduce risk effectively at lower costs, \r\nexcept in places with limited space or in areas with large protection. "


id: 5efe26c7222e941b9eb31f14c6458702
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"measures by governments are projected to outweigh floodproofing at \r\nhousehold level, in particular in WCE, while for near-term household \r\nadaptation or regionally in SEU this could reduce risk more effectively \r\n(Haer et al., 2019). Relocation of households has occurred in response \r\nto river flood events (e.g., the 2013 flood events along the Danube River \r\nin Austria), with financial compensation playing a crucial role (Mayr \r\net al., 2020; Thaler and Fuchs, 2020; Thaler, 2021)."


id: ef22602e5674cd83b4b1bca1fc03c8fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 35093
content:
"Garnier and Holman, 2019). Wastewater reuse is considered a low-cost \r\nand effective measure where wastewater is available (Lavrnic et  al., \r\n2017; De Roo et al., 2020), but public acceptance for domestic reuse is \r\npresently limited (high confidence) (Papadaskalopoulou et al., 2015b; \r\nMorote et al., 2019). Increasing desalination capacity is used particularly \r\nin SEU but has high energy demands and produces brine waste (Garnier \r\nand Holman, 2019; Jones et al., 2019; Morote et al., 2019)."


id: 2abb3e0e388d8674fc0932e7b673ded1
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content:
"Urban drainage infrastructure is designed based on historical rainfall \r\nintensities, and thus may not have sufficient capacity for increased \r\nfuture intensities (Dale et  al., 2018). Adaptation options to pluvial \r\nflooding include large retention ponds, local green spaces and green \r\nroofs within cities (Zolch et al., 2017; Maragno et al., 2018; Babovic \r\nand Mijic, 2019; Ribas et al., 2020)."


id: a079c024b40c0ab89204569c9314c29d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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"Limits to adaptation to extremely high SLR scenarios have been \r\nidentified for coastal defences, such as the Venice MoSE barrier (see \r\nBox  13.1), Thames Barrier in the UK (Ranger et  al., 2013) and the \r\nMaeslant Barrier in the Netherlands (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Haasnoot \r\net al., 2020b). However, the scale and pace of adaptation required to \r\nface high-end SLR scenarios along all coasts of Europe has been poorly \r\nstudied. Given the lead and long lifetime of large critical infrastructures, \r\nthere is a growing need to look beyond 2100 to support the design of \r\nnew infrastructures (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3)."


id: 4756ae4f765839e2db085e4690a7fe6d
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"An assessment of the full solution space of adaptation options and \r\npathways under low to high GWL, including the long term, is lacking. \r\nA quantification of the effectiveness of measures in reducing risk is \r\nlimited in the scientific literature. The available assessments consider \r\nadaptation by incremental measures. Transformative options, such as \r\nland-use changes, planned relocation from exposed areas or restricting \r\nfuture development, are rarely considered. While high-end scenarios \r\ndescribing low confidence processes and scenarios beyond 2100 are "


id: d0f78b7fc25916e25ba7b6fea15ae847
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Planning adaptation to water scarcity has centred on increasing \r\nthe availability and supply of freshwater through water storage, \r\ndiversification of sources and water diversion and transfer (high \r\nconfidence). Reservoirs are costly, have negative environmental \r\nimpacts and will not be sufficient under higher warming levels in every \r\nplace (Papadaskalopoulou et  al., 2015a; Di Baldassarre et  al., 2018; "


id: 508ae059aa5126cb09b227e32602ea13
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content:
"considered to be useful for risk-averse decision making, in particular \r\ncoastal adaptation (Hinkel et al., 2019; Haasnoot et al., 2020b), they \r\nare rarely considered in practice."


id: 16e572d51c8d70d4a97383d5b784f757
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"nutrient enrichment and pollution, all of which reduce resilience of \r\nbiotas and ecosystems (very high confidence). Peatlands in NEU and \r\nEEU and other historically important cultural landscapes in Europe are \r\noverexploited for forestry, agriculture and peat mining (Page and Baird, \r\n2016; Tanneberger et al., 2017; Ojanen and Minkkinen, 2020). Inland \r\nwetland RAMSAR convention sites in Europe, which constitute 47% of \r\nthe global sites have lost area in WCE and gained in SEU from 1980 to \r\n2014 (Xi et al., 2021). Forests in WCE were impacted by the extreme heat \r\nand drought event of 2018, with effects lasting into 2019 (Schuldt et al., \r\n2020) and losses in conifer timber sales in Europe (Hlasny et al., 2021)."


id: 21ce061299fa73b7b6a311af4995bb8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Extirpation (e.g., local losses of species) have been observed in response \r\nto climate change in Europe (medium confidence) (Wiens, 2016; EEA, \r\n2017a; Soroye et al., 2020). Strong climate-induced declines have been \r\ndetected in thermosensitive taxa (Hellmann et al., 2016), including many \r\nfreshwater groups, insects (Habel et al., 2019; Harris et al., 2019; Seibold \r\net al., 2019; Soroye et al., 2020), amphibians, reptiles (Falaschi et al., \r\n2019), birds (Lehikoinen et al., 2019) and fishes (Myers et al., 2017a; \r\nJaric et al., 2019). The loss of native species, especially specialised taxa, "


id: b615c62d02fe1706bf18d0b8bdcf3ee
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content:
"European land and freshwater ecosystems (Figure  13.7) are already \r\nstrongly impacted by a range of anthropogenic drivers (very high \r\nconfidence), particularly habitats at the southern and northern margins, \r\nalong the coasts, up mountains and in freshwater systems (Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1). Interacting with climate change are non-climatic hazards, such \r\nas habitat loss and fragmentation, overexploitation, water abstraction, "


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content:
"is changing biodiversity; however, overall biodiversity could remain \r\nstable because losses may be offset by range shifts of native, and the \r\nestablishment of non-native, species (Dornelas et al., 2014; McGill et al., \r\n2015; Hillebrand et al., 2018; Outhwaite et al., 2020)."


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content:
"Range shifts are leading to northward and upwards expansions of \r\nwarm-adapted taxa (very high confidence) (Figure  13.8; Chapter 2). \r\nThese shifts have altered species living in the boreal and alpine tundra \r\n(Elmhagen et al., 2015; Post et al., 2019; Mekonnen et al., 2021) and \r\nare greening the high Arctic tundra with shrubs and trees (Myers\u0002Smith et  al., 2020). Plants display more stable distributions at low \r\nthan at higher mountain altitudes (Rumpf et al., 2018 ). Microclimatic \r\nvariability in some locations can buffer warming impacts (medium \r\nconfidence) (Suggitt et al., 2018; Zellweger et al., 2020; Carnicer et al., \r\n2021). Northward shifts of tree species distributions is documented in \r\nnorth-western Europe (Bryn and Potthoff, 2018; Mamet et al., 2019) but \r\nnot consistently detected (Cudlin et al., 2017; Vila-Cabrera et al., 2019)."


id: 7f5f2e3dd70afb7c7f621316418b3fd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 17594
content:
"The timing of many processes, including spring leaf unfolding, autumn \r\nsenescence and flight rhythms, have changed in response to changes in \r\nseasonal temperatures, water and light availability (very high confidence) \r\n(Chapter 2; Szabo et al., 2016; Asse et al., 2018; Peaucelle et al., 2019; \r\nMenzel et  al., 2020; Rosbakh et  al., 2021), resulting, for example, in \r\nearlier arrival dates for many birds and butterflies (Karlsson, 2014; \r\nBobretsov et al., 2019; Lehikoinen et al., 2019). The largest increase in \r\nlength of growing season in plants has been detected in WCE, NEU and \r\nEEU, but shortening in parts of SEU driven by later senescence (Garonna \r\net  al., 2014), increasing population growth for butterflies and moths \r\n(Macgregor et al., 2019) and birds (Halupka and Halupka, 2017), and \r\nresidence time for migrant birds (Newson et al., 2016)."


id: 25934c7da3aa8118aeee782565893aed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3340
content:
"Risks emerging from climate change for phenology are uncertain, given \r\nasynchrony between species, taxa and trophic responses (Thackeray \r\net  al., 2016; Posledovich et  al., 2018; Keogan et  al., 2021) and the \r\ncomplexity of phenological events and their cues (medium confidence) \r\n(Delgado et al., 2020; Ettinger et al., 2020). Spring events may continue \r\nto occur earlier (Gauzere et al., 2016), but reduced chilling may decrease \r\nthis temporal shift (Wang et  al., 2020). Projections for autumn are \r\nmixed, with continuing delays (Prislan et al., 2019) or earlier onset of \r\nleaf senescence (Wu et al., 2018), but reduced chilling may also decrease \r\nthese developments (Wang et al., 2020). Advancement, combined with \r\nlonger autumn growth, may extend the growing season of trees by two \r\ndays per decade in SEU (Prislan et al., 2019). Warming to >3degC GWL will \r\nimpact forest planning in NEU (Caffarra et al., 2014)."


id: b8e4b24f998808d2e3b1223be84b2a3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26616
content:
"Risks for terrestrial ecosystems will increase with warming (very \r\nhigh confidence) with high impacts at >2.4degC GWL and very high \r\nimpacts >3.5degC GWL (medium confidence) (Section 13.10.3.1). Land\u0002use changes will increase extirpation and extinction risk (very high \r\nconfidence) (Vermaat et al., 2017). In NEU, biodiversity vulnerability is \r\nprojected to be lower as new climate and habitat space is becoming \r\navailable (Warren et al., 2018; Harrison et al., 2019). Warming <1.5degC \r\nGWL would limit risks to biodiversity, while 4degC GWL and intensive land \r\nuse could lead to a loss of suitable climate and habitat space for most \r\nspecies (low confidence) (Warren et al., 2018; Harrison et al., 2019)."


id: b7b7ab9b7ec221557dc0cfe7053efa15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26438
content:
"Fires affect over 400,000 ha every year in the EU (San-Miguel-Ayanz \r\net al., 2019), with 85% of the area located in SEU (Khabarov et al., \r\n2016; de Rigo et al., 2017; Gomes Da Costa et al., 2020), where 'fire \r\nweather' conditions (determined by temperature, precipitation, wind \r\nspeed and relative humidity) are most pronounced (Figure 13.10). Fire \r\nhazard conditions, including heatwaves (Boer et al., 2017), increased \r\nthroughout Europe from 1980 to 2019 (Figure 13.10), with substantive \r\nincreases in SEU and WCE (high confidence) (Urbieta et al., 2019; Di \r\nGiuseppe et  al., 2020; Fargeon et  al., 2020). Extreme wildfires have \r\nbeen observed in recent years, including 2017 in Portugal, 2018 in \r\nSweden (Krikken et al., 2021) and 2021 in south-eastern Europe. In \r\nSEU, WCE and NEU human activities have caused more than 90-95% \r\nof the fires, while natural ignition accounts for a substantial portion of \r\nburned areas in EEU (Wu et al., 2015; Filipchuk et al., 2018)."


id: 2890dbd282ac72c56b04644e76b334dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
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vector_id: 3801
content:
"Disruption of habitat connectivity reduces resilience and is projected to \r\nimpact 30% of lake and river catchments in Europe by 2030, through \r\ndrought and reduced river flows (medium evidence) (Markovic et al., \r\n2017). Average wetland area is not projected to change at 1.7degC GWL \r\nacross Europe, while for >4degC GWL expanding sites in NEU are not \r\nsufficient to balance losses in SEU and WCE (high confidence) (Xi et al., \r\n2021). At 3degC GWL the alpine tundra habitat and its associated species \r\nare projected to be lost in the Pyrenees and shrink dramatically in NEU, \r\nWCE and EEU (Anisimov et al., 2017; Barredo et al., 2020)."


id: 8bcf743855cfc78ac72afc63d8dcb650
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 19518
content:
"Except for Portugal, burned area in SEU has shown a slightly \r\ndecreasing trend since 1980, with high interannual variability (Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 4; Turco et al., 2016; de Rigo et al., 2017). In SEU, burned \r\nterrestrial biomass declined from 2003 to 2019 (Turco et  al., 2016), \r\ndespite increasing fire risks. This trend is parallel to increasing fire \r\nmanagement measures implemented (Fernandez-Anez et  al., 2021). \r\nThe slight increase in burned biomass in WCE and NEU is associated "


id: c9c0e6084c61167de7f20594eece34d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29298
content:
"Population range shifts (Figures 13.7, 13.10) are projected to continue \r\n(medium confidence at 1.5deg GWL, high confidence at 3.0degC GWL) "


id: 5e4aa780e1d2918f329a74dd3054459e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12362
content:
"Figure 13.8 |  Summary of major impacts on, and risks for, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Europe for 1.5degC and 3degC GWL (Table "


id: 52b84ca005074cd604fc365a336e153c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10472
content:
"drier vegetation and ground fuel conditions due to prolonged droughts \r\n(McCarty et al., 2021). Projections suggest that new fire-prone regions \r\nin Europe could emerge, particularly in WCE and NEU where wildfires \r\nhave been uncommon and fire management capacity is slowly increas\u0002ing (Wu et al., 2015; Forzieri et al., 2021)."


id: 68a260ec96b7bb5e990bc638f4a87a76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14056
content:
"with more hazardous landscape configurations and warming in recent \r\ndecades (Turco et al., 2016; Urbieta et al., 2019)."


id: ebbc0dbccb12305fdfde4933d234b77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34592
content:
"Projections of wildfire risks are uncertain due to multiple factors, \r\nincluding compound events, fire-vegetation interaction and social \r\nfactors (Thompson and Calkin, 2011; San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2019). \r\nWildfire risks could increase across all regions of Europe at 1.5degC and \r\n3degC GWL (medium to high confidence) (Figure 13.8). In SEU, the fre\u0002quency of heat-induced fire weather is projected to increase by 14% at \r\n2.5degC GWL and rise to 30% at 4.4degC GWL (Turco et al., 2018; Gomes \r\nDa Costa et al., 2020; Ruffault et al., 2020). In the European Arctic, \r\nthe extent and duration of extreme fire seasons will increase because \r\nof increasing extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and "


id: e2cbbd20e58d139d3241d02917442c09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33180
content:
"European temperate and boreal forests, wetlands and peatlands \r\nhold important carbon stocks (Bukvareva and Zamolodchikov, 2016; \r\nYousefpour et al., 2018). Effects of warming and increasing droughts \r\non soil moisture, respiration and carbon sequestration have been "


id: 3235bfc9c68f902ae33b773983eadeb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 5312
content:
"Figure 13.9 |  Species projected to remain within their suitable climate conditions at increasing levels of climate change. Colour shading represents the proportion \r\nof species projected to remain within their suitable climates averaged over 21 CMIP5 climate models (Warren et al., 2018). Areas shaded in green retain a large number of species \r\nwith suitable climate conditions, while those in purple represent areas where climates become unsuitable for more than 80% of species without dispersal (Table SM13.3)."


id: 258e4b30f8b677ae3e81a203a3ecbd7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3335
content:
"and lower elevation in northern species (Kerr et al., 2015) resulting in \r\nhigher pollinator richness in NEU (Franzen and Ockinger, 2012). Lags in \r\nresponses to climate change suggest that current impacts on pollination \r\nhave not been fully realised (IPBES, 2018). Pollinators are also declining \r\ndue to lack of suitable habitat, pollution, pesticides, pathogens and \r\ncompeting invasive alien species (Settele et al., 2016; Steele et al., 2019)."


id: 11da85438802bf3f86fca2d5f74b9f82
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 306
content:
"Projected climate impacts on pollinators show mixed responses across \r\nEurope but are greater under 3degC GWL (medium confidence) (Rasmont \r\net al., 2015). Increasing homogenisation of populations may increase \r\nvulnerability to extreme events (Vasiliev and Greenwood, 2021). \r\nGeographical changes to the climatic niche of pollinators are similar to \r\nthose of insects, with mixed trends, depending on group and location \r\n(Figure 13.9; Kaloveloni et al., 2015; Rasmont et al., 2015; Radenkovic \r\net al., 2017). In NEU, species richness may increase for some groups \r\n(Rasmont et al., 2015), with unclear trends for bumblebees (Fourcade \r\net al., 2019; Soroye et al., 2020). Future land use will have important \r\neffects on pollinator distribution (Marshall, 2018) as habitat \r\nfragmentation in densely populated Europe decreases opportunities \r\nfor range shifts and microclimatic buffering (Vasiliev and Greenwood, \r\n2021)."


id: 2d870afadc916ea5004ff69b3bde74ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 4603
content:
"Declines in pollinator ranges in response to climate change are \r\noccurring for many groups in Europe (high confidence) (Figure \r\nBox 13.1.1; Figure 13.8; Kerr et al., 2015; Soroye et al., 2020; Zattara \r\nand Aizen, 2020), with observed shifts to higher elevations in southern "


id: eddaf570fe6d90859e54ad90a45a39f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 34886
content:
"Soil erosion varies across Europe, with higher rates in parts of SEU and \r\nWCE, but lower rates in NEU (high confidence) (Figure 13.8; Petz et al., "


id: c6b75e5fc5802a47783aae19860499af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 28830
content:
"Figure  13.10 |   Geographical variability and dynamic changes in fire \r\ndanger in Europe over recent decades. Significant increases in fire hazard \r\nat the multi-decadal scale and unprecedented years of elevated fire hazard have \r\noccurred over the past decade in Southern and Western Central Europe (SEU, \r\nWCE). The environmental conditions required for fires to spread and intensify \r\nwere evaluated using fire hazard estimates (Fire Weather index, FWI, based on \r\nmeteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and \r\nrelative humidity). The FWI trends were calculated with the ECMWF ERA-5 FWI \r\nreanalysis dataset (Copernicus, 2019; Copernicus, 2020a; Copernicus, 2020b)."


id: 17bd71a2e3b42e188e5c05a4339c7e69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1233
content:
"et al., 2020b). More dynamic areas of protection, such as networks of \r\nprotected areas with corridors, buffer zones and zoning, can facilitate \r\npopulation shifts (Barredo et al., 2016; Nila et al., 2019; Crick et al., \r\n2020; Keeley et  al., 2021) and thereby reduce but not eliminate \r\nvulnerability (Wessely et al., 2017; Pavon-Jordan et al., 2020)."


id: c4479b6764aa7921ecd23a555528b5cb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28450
content:
"Projected increase in rainfall could increase soil erosion, while warming \r\nenhances vegetation cover, leading to overall mixed responses (medium \r\nconfidence) (Berberoglu et al., 2020; Ciampalini et al., 2020). In Europe, \r\nrainfall erosion could increase by >81% (Panagos et al., 2017) at 2degC \r\nGWL, especially in NEU (Borrelli et al., 2020) where risks can be limited \r\nby soil erosion control (Polce et al., 2016). Decreased rainfall projected \r\nfor parts of SEU could reduce erosion, although increases in rainfall \r\nintensity could offset this (Serpa et al., 2015). Soil losses from fire will \r\nincrease in SEU in response to 2degC GWL (Pastor et al., 2019), especially \r\nif combined with extreme rainfall (Moran-Ordonez et  al., 2020). \r\nIn northern regions, reduced soil losses are projected during spring \r\nsnowmelt (Svetlitchnyi, 2020)."


id: be5f64c8f1f765f7e673e7e03a3c9601
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Fire management plans and programmes are in place in most of SEU \r\nand increasingly developed in the parts of Europe where wildfires \r\nare less common (Fernandez-Anez et  al., 2021). The capacity to \r\nimplement and maintain these options remains limited, however \r\n(medium confidence). The dominant fire management paradigm of \r\nfire suppression in some regions of SEU has been questioned, as it \r\ncontributes to fuel accumulation. Approaches are advocated which \r\ncombine fire-risk mitigation, prevention and preparation (Moreira \r\net  al., 2020), recovery through post-fire management (Lucas-Borja \r\net al., 2021) and diverse fuel treatment (Mirra et al., 2017), including \r\nprescribed burning (Fernandes et al., 2013)."


id: 8ad0e4f583b0d402f18fee888fc2d2cb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19375
content:
"Autonomous species adaptation, via range shifts towards higher \r\nlatitudes and altitudes and changes in phenology, but also extirpation, \r\nhave been documented in all European regions (very high confidence) \r\n(Figure 13.8). Lowering vulnerability by reducing other anthropogenic \r\nimpacts (Gillingham et  al., 2015), such as land-use change, habitat \r\nfragmentation (Eigenbrod et al., 2015; Oliver et al., 2017; Wessely et al., \r\n2017), pollution and deforestation (Chapter 2), enhances adaptation \r\ncapacity and biodiversity conservation (high confidence) (Ockendon \r\net al., 2018). Protected areas, such as the EU Natura 2000 network, have \r\ncontributed to biodiversity protection (medium confidence) (Gauzere \r\net al., 2016; Sanderson et al., 2016; Santini et al., 2016; Hermoso et al., \r\n2018), but 60% of terrestrial species at these sites could lose suitable \r\nclimate niches at 4degC GWL (Figure Box 13.1.1; EEA, 2017a)."


id: 5ae5bff103c19d48b86ce60b7cdcd546
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 11814
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptations (EbA) and NbS that restore or recreate \r\necosystems, build resilience and produce synergies with adaptation \r\nand mitigation in other sectors are increasingly used in Europe (high \r\nconfidence) (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; Berry et al., \r\n2015; Chausson et  al., 2020). Planting trees or recreating wetlands \r\ncan function as part of natural flood management (Dadson et  al., \r\n2017; Cooper et al., 2021), while urban green infrastructure can reduce \r\nflooding (Section 13.2.2) and heat stress as well as provide recreation "


id: 7b9f86c6cfff2eee3af141a8ab32564a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17046
content:
"Most protected areas are static and thus do not take species migration \r\ninto consideration (high confidence) (Gillingham et al., 2015; Heikkinen "


id: 674d7dd0f5e01c9b3931b46526f8b241
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 13843
content:
"opportunities and health benefits (Section  13.6.2.3; see Box  13.3; \r\nKabisch et al., 2016; Choi et al., 2021)."


id: 86037c26765faecde738badcca21776c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18621
content:
"Despite growing evidence of climate-change impacts and risks, including \r\nattributed changes to terrestrial ecosystems (Section  13.10.1), this \r\ninformation is geographically not equally distributed, leaving clear gaps \r\nfor some processes or regions (high confidence). For processes such as \r\nwildfire, the Fire Weather index (Section 13.3.1.3) suggests increasing risk \r\nof fires in Europe, but robust projections on incidents and magnitudes of \r\nwildfire and their impacts on ecosystems and other sectors is currently \r\nlimited, particularly for NEU, EEU and WCE (high confidence)."


id: 1e78c259af48c3dd34f0fedaf77e141e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2235
content:
"Appropriately implemented ecosystem-based mitigation, such as \r\nreforestation with climate-resilient native species (Section  13.3.1.4), \r\npeatland and wetland restoration, and agroecology (Section 13.5.2), \r\ncan enhance carbon sequestration or storage (medium confidence) \r\n(Seddon et al., 2020). Salt marsh protection or recreation can increase \r\ncarbon storage capacity, enhance coastal flood protection and provide \r\ncultural services (Beaumont et al., 2014; Bindoff et al., 2019). Trade-offs \r\nbetween ecosystem protection, their services and human adaptation \r\nand mitigation needs can generate challenges, such as loss of habitats, \r\nincreased emissions from restored wetlands (Gunther et  al., 2020) \r\nand conflicts between carbon capture services, and provisioning of \r\nbioenergy, food, timber and water (medium confidence) (Lee et  al., \r\n2019; Krause et al., 2020)."


id: fb0e15e0efaeaeeed9900484797b8bdc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37014
content:
"Many studies consider only individual climate drivers, though new \r\nresearch shows strong interactions between hazards such as warming \r\nand drought (Section 13.3.1), as well as non-climatic drivers (Chapter \r\n2). This creates uncertainty about the emergence of extinctions and \r\nthe magnitudes of impacts for European ecosystems and the services \r\nthey provide (high confidence), such as pollination on food production. \r\nRCP-SSP combinations to assess risks are only just emerging (Harrison \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 7cd3022a3059f5058d74799d3b0c09dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17234
content:
"Assessments of the long-term effectiveness of adaptation actions \r\nare missing, due to the time lag in determining the effectiveness of \r\nan action and attributing risk reduction (Morecroft et al., 2019). For \r\nexample, many landscape restoration actions have been discussed, but \r\nit is unclear which would bring the greatest benefits and which species \r\nshould be used for the restoration (Ockendon et al., 2018). Furthermore, \r\nadaptation actions will depend on local implementation and benefit \r\nfrom being assessed using cultural and Indigenous knowledge where \r\napplicable, but this is hardly studied (medium confidence)."


id: ddb4c407a067b60c1e19fc3eb719b577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32383
content:
"Warming continues to be the key climate hazard for European seas \r\n(Figure 13.1). Interacting with other climatic and non-climatic drivers, \r\nit has detectable and attributable impacts at a wide range of biological \r\nand ecological organisational levels (Figure 13.11)."


id: abea6d3b431afdea5a50e36c0d790ce6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24569
content:
"Particularly habitat loss in shallow coastal waters and at the coasts \r\nthemselves, and northward distribution shifts of populations and \r\ncommunities, are evident across all European marine sub-regions \r\n(high confidence) (Figure 13.11; Chapter 3). Marine heatwaves have \r\nhad severe ecological impacts in SEUS (high confidence) (Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 4), threatening sessile benthic biotas and coastal \r\nhabitats (Munari, 2011; Kersting et  al., 2013; Rivetti et  al., 2014; \r\nGarrabou et  al., 2019). Range contractions, extirpations (medium \r\nconfidence) (Smale, 2020) and species redistributions have been \r\nobserved (high confidence) in TEUS (Cottier-Cook et al., 2017) and \r\nSEUS (Castellanos-Galindo et al., 2020). Habitat losses, range shifts, \r\nspecies invasions and species thermal preferences have altered \r\ncommunity compositions (Vasilakopoulos et  al., 2017), resulting in \r\nthe 'subtropicalisation' of TEUS and 'tropicalisation' of SEUS (Chapter "


id: bea6a4f7d85c0a6e9760939a1ca2dab8
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vector_id: 27551
content:
"3; Cross-Chapter Paper 4) and temperature-dependent timing of \r\nabundance and reproduction cycles (Hjerne et al., 2019; Polte et al., \r\n2021; Uriarte et al., 2021)."


id: b083d59ce77498c61a23b95fe50c7a06
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vector_id: 25293
content:
"Reductions in growth and reproductive success of calcifying species \r\nare not yet unambiguously detected and attributed in European \r\nseas (medium confidence) (Figure  13.11), as many show resilience \r\n(Kroeker et al., 2010; Wall et al., 2015). However, fish population sizes \r\nare shrinking (Queiros et al., 2018; Ikpewe et al., 2021), and growth, \r\nreproduction and recruitment are negatively impacted (Lindegren et al., \r\n2018; Goldberg et al., 2019; Hidalgo et al., 2019; Vieira et al., 2019; \r\nDenechaud et al., 2020; Maynou et al., 2020; Polte et al., 2021), though \r\npositive effects also occur (Sguotti et al., 2019; Tanner et al., 2019). \r\nBiodiversity changes depend on region, habitat and taxon (medium \r\nconfidence) (Figure  13.11) overall resulting in the redistribution of \r\nbiodiversity in Europe (Garcia Molinos et al., 2016), and biodiversity \r\ndeclines in some sub-regions (high confidence) (IPBES, 2018)."


id: b39cf1a34f9aeb459297b8b866e0ca82
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25770
content:
"Daskalov et al., 2017; Riebesell et al., 2018; Stanev et al., 2018) along \r\nwith the risks of Vibrio pathogens and vibriosis (Section 13.7.1; Baker\u0002Austin et al., 2017; Semenza et al., 2017). Across all European seas \r\nthere is only low confidence of a consistent change in provisioning \r\necosystem services (e.g., fishing yields) (Section 13.5), because of inter\u0002regional variability, but high confidence in the decrease in regulating \r\nservices and coastal protection because of the cascading effects of \r\necosystem impacts (Figure 13.11)."


id: 117b7cc531b4c3ea9c5abea096d24bfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 237
content:
"Ocean acidification and its biological and ecological risks are projected \r\nto rise in European waters by impeding growth and reproductive \r\nsuccess of vulnerable calcifying organisms (medium confidence) \r\n(Figure  13.11). Coralline algae are projected to reduce skeletal \r\nperformance at 3degC GWL, with negative consequences for habitat "


id: fe01979a39bcf1cc6de667671e22e11
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37486
content:
"Human adaptation options for marine systems encompass socio\u0002institutional adaptation, technology and measures supporting \r\nautonomous adaptation (Chapter 3). Integrated coastal zone \r\nmanagement (ICZM) and marine spatial planning (MSP) are \r\nframeworks for addressing climate-change adaptation needs as well "


id: bc7707da53a8da6fa2d0cdfec0cb46a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27231
content:
"as operationalising and enforcing marine conservation; however, ICZM \r\nand MSP commonly do not explicitly take climate-change adaptation \r\ninto consideration (Elliott et  al., 2015). Transboundary ICZM and/or \r\nMSP (Gormley et al., 2015) will become even more important with the \r\nprojected acceleration of range extensions and ecological regime shifts \r\ndue to climate change (IPCC, 2019)."


id: b33740fe8d8779399b544462364564df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25710
content:
"Many climate-change adaptation governance and implementation \r\nmeasures are embedded in international strategies, such as HELCOM \r\n(Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission) (Backer et  al., \r\n2010), OSPAR (Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment \r\nof the North-East Atlantic) (OSPAR, 2009), and the Marine Strategy \r\nFramework Directive (MSFD) and European Water Framework Directive \r\n(EWFD) of the EU. In the Russian Arctic, mainly the Barents Sea, \r\nconservation priority areas (CPA) have been identified as Ecologically \r\nand Biologically Significant Areas (EBSA) (Solovyev et  al., 2017); \r\nhowever, plans are generally at a relatively early stage (Miller et al., \r\n2018) and assessments of the effectiveness of these policy frameworks \r\nto accelerate climate-change adaptation are ongoing (Haasnoot et al., \r\n2020a)."


id: 46a6b01a3443dbbec1d4c9ef78bd0125
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8501
content:
"The greatest benefits are obtained from large, long-established, no\u0002take MPAs (Edgar et al., 2014), yet most MPAs in Europe are partially \r\nprotected or multi-use areas, and existing no-take areas tend to be \r\nvery small (<50 km2\r\n). No-take areas account, in total, for less than \r\n0.4% of the area of European waters (Figure 13.12) and are often \r\nnested within multi-use MPAs. In some partially protected MPAs, \r\nlocal stressors, such as fishing, are higher than adjacent unprotected \r\nareas (medium confidence) (Zupan et  al., 2018a; Mazaris et  al., \r\n2019). Despite evidence for climate mitigation benefits of no-take \r\nzones (Roberts et  al., 2017), the efficacy of partially protected \r\nMPAs is debated and dependent on local management (Zupan "


id: 74c549106588d13220d38be6a61e949b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15968
content:
"'Green' adaptations, either EbA or NbS, are part of adaptive management \r\nstrategies (European Comission, 2011) that facilitate coastal flood \r\nprotection (Section 13.2.2; Chapter 3; CCC SLR) and generate benefits \r\nbeyond habitat creation (medium confidence), for example, from \r\navoided expenditures for flood defence infrastructure and avoided \r\nloss of the built assets (Gedan et al., 2010).MPAs have been identified \r\nas adaptation options for natural areas, including permitted and non\u0002"


id: 8262d749c6c2ec04dea75780fbc63dd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18037
content:
"p\r\nImplemented and partially protected MPA: 0.4%\r\nImplemented MPAs but protection unknown: 7.0%\r\nDesignated but not implemented MPAs: 0.7%\r\nProposed MPAs: 0.3%"


id: 731b1521f503ba29637a49a438db6345
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15721
content:
"Figure 13.12 |  Marine protected areas (MPAs) in European seas. Shown are proportions of designated and proposed MPAs in the total areas of northern (NEUS), temperate \r\n(TEUS) and southern (SEUS) European seas, as well as the shares of no-take, partial, unimplemented and unknown protection levels of designated MPAs (Marine Conservation \r\nInstitute, 2021). Moreover, the average increase of surface sea temperatures at 4.0degC GWL by 2100 in NEUS, TEUS and SEUS is indicated."


id: b51e4eb81c4b59e1e41cf0445b228b75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26030
content:
"et al., 2018b). Marine protected areas of all types require effective \r\nmanagement to contribute to mitigating climate-change impacts, \r\nincluding effective monitoring and enforcement (Watson et al., 2014), \r\nyet the management effectiveness of European MPAs has repeatedly \r\nbeen called into question (Batista and Cabral, 2016; Amengual and \r\nAlvarez-Berastegui, 2018; Fraschetti et al., 2018; Rilov et al., 2019). \r\nMany MPAs lack management plans, and insufficient resources are \r\nfrequently an issue (Alvarez-Fernandez et  al., 2017; Schere et  al., \r\n2020). Thus, while substantial in potential, the current capacity of the \r\nEuropean MPA network to reduce climate-change impacts is limited \r\n(Jones et al., 2016; Claudet et al., 2020)."


id: aa3028f1031008912976f0e14692dab6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24312
content:
"drivers, processes and their interactions, strengthen the confidence of \r\nrisk projections and provide a foundation for future adaptation actions."


id: 8e7fa0f228cc89127dde6f00a46d621f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19941
content:
"There is limited knowledge about the connectivity among populations, \r\nspecies and ecosystems which would provide new recruits, enable \r\ngene flow in MPA networks (Dubois et al., 2016; Sahyoun et al., 2016) \r\nand facilitate assisted migration. Such MPAs cover a wide range of \r\nprotection status with limited evidence regarding which level of \r\nprotection and connectivity is needed to achieve adaptations goals in \r\nresponse to future warming."


id: 28708766a4577cc759b944df89766e1d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3776
content:
"Although European seas and coasts are comparatively well studied \r\non a global scale, the spatial and temporal resolution and coverage of \r\nopen-access data is still limited in many regions, particularly in EEU. \r\nThe detection and attribution of ongoing or emerging environmental \r\nand biological changes are therefore limited. Some efforts are in place, \r\nsuch as the six 'Sea-basin Checkpoints' (North Sea, Mediterranean Sea, \r\nArctic, Atlantic, Baltic, Black Sea) that were established in 2013 under \r\nThe European Marine Observation and Data Network, but high-quality \r\nobservations of key ocean characteristics at the level of regional sea \r\nbasins are still too scarce to support decision making for marine \r\nadaptation (Miguez et al., 2019)."


id: 77bad6a24340db8ca225d6dee68597c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16399
content:
"Agriculture is the primary user of land in Europe. In 2013, Europe \r\nprovided 28% of cereals, 59% of sugar beet and 60% of wine \r\nproduced globally, as well as being part of a globalised food system \r\nwith a third of the commodities produced and consumed in Europe \r\ntraded internationally (FAOSTAT, 2019)."


id: d74f6039bad91cefd9e78da3b8f4001e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31391
content:
"Major knowledge gaps are uncertainties and shortcomings in our \r\nunderstanding of combined, cascading and interacting impacts of \r\nclimatic and non-climatic pressures on European marine and coastal \r\nsocio-ecological systems (Korpinen et al., 2021). Further observational, \r\nexperimental and modelling work will enhance the insight into multiple "


id: 1b03c18a9c69ee259732a5150a4d45d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1722
content:
"projected to decrease by 5-9% per degree of warming in SEU (Van \r\nPassel et al., 2017). Increased heat and drought stress, and reduced \r\nirrigation water availability, will decrease profitability and cause \r\nabandonment of farmland in SEU (limited evidence, low confidence) \r\n(Holman et al., 2017)."


id: 1db1781ff1d364fcf126dd848bf8c6ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2110
content:
"et  al., 2019b) that were exceptional compared with recent decades \r\n(Webber et al., 2020). Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of \r\nfield-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes \r\nand cucumbers (Potopova et al., 2017) and earlier flowering of olive \r\ntrees (high confidence) (Garcia-Mozo et  al., 2015). Delayed harvest, \r\ndue to both wet conditions and earlier harvests in Central Europe in \r\nresponse to warming, has impacted wine quality (Cook and Wolkovich, \r\n2016; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016; Di Lena et al., 2019)."


id: 4070d4927c08663cc318c5eb80af0d89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7520
content:
"Heat and humidity affect livestock, such as dairy cows and goats, \r\ndirectly exposed in open barns and outdoors (Gauly et  al., 2013; \r\nBernabucci et  al., 2014; Silanikove and Koluman, 2015), and cold\u0002adapted husbandry (high confidence) (see Box 13.2; Section 13.8.3). \r\nHeat impacts animal health (Sanker et  al., 2013; Lambertz et  al., \r\n2014), nutrition, behaviour and welfare (Heinicke et  al., 2019), \r\nperformance and product quality (Gauly and Ammer, 2020). Climate \r\nchange also impacts grassland production, fodder composition and \r\nquality, particularly in SEU (Dumont et al., 2015) and EEU (Bezuglova \r\net  al., 2020), as well as alters the prevalence, distribution and load \r\nof pathogens and their vectors (high confidence) (Section  2.4.2.7.3; \r\nMorgan et al., 2013; Charlier et al., 2016). Projected impacts on poultry \r\nand pigs are low due to temperature control in large parts of Europe, \r\nbut are greater in SEU where open systems prevail (Chapter 5)."


id: 4e98d9429ec2d0903568fa0bdc21159
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9798
content:
"Warming increases the pasture growing season and farming period \r\nin NEU and at higher altitudes (Fuhrer et  al., 2014), while longer \r\ndrought periods and thunderstorms can influence abandonment of \r\nremote Alpine pastures, reducing cultural and landscape ecosystem \r\nservices and losing traditional farming practices (high confidence) \r\n(Section  13.8.3; Herzog and Seidl, 2018). At 2-4degC GWL grassland \r\nbiomass production for forage-fed animals will increase in NEU and \r\nthe northern Alps, while forage production will decrease in SEU and \r\nthe southern Alps due to heat and water scarcity (Gauly et al., 2013; \r\nJager et al., 2020), causing regional reductions of cow milk production \r\nin WCE and SEU (high confidence) (Silanikove and Koluman, 2015)."


id: 559d77e42f7b3c7a0c613a065584357b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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content:
"Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4degC \r\nGWL, with lower losses or gains in the north (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 13.5; Trnka et al., 2014; Webber et al., 2016; Szewczyk et al., \r\n2018). The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU \r\n(high confidence) (Deryng et al., 2014; Knox et al., 2016) with yield \r\nlosses across Europe of 10-25% at 1.5degC-2degC GWL and 50-100% at \r\n4degC GWL (Deryng et al., 2014; Webber et al., 2018; Feyen et al., 2020)."


id: c90b3bf67f7e965cb8a6256e7c2ea765
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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vector_id: 29193
content:
"Seafood production in Europe provides jobs for >250,000 people, \r\npredominantly in SEU (Carvalho et al., 2017). Marine fisheries contribute \r\n80% to European aquatic food production, while marine aquaculture \r\nprovides 18% and freshwater production 3% (Blanchet et al., 2019). \r\nThe Russian Federation provides 25% of seafood production in Europe \r\n(FAOSTAT, 2019)."


id: c379e5df19bf1bbf382f7e8796c796a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28326
content:
"Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize \r\nin WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4degC GWL \r\n(medium confidence) (Siebert et al., 2017; Ceglar et al., 2019). Irrigation \r\ncan reduces projected heat and drought stress, for example, for wheat \r\nand maize (Ruiz-Ramos et  al., 2018; Feyen et  al., 2020), but use is \r\nlimited by water availability (KR3, Section  13.10.2). The advantages \r\nof a longer growing season in NEU and EEU are outbalanced by the \r\nincreased risk of early spring and summer heatwaves (Ceglar et al., \r\n2019)."


id: fb353c0eb0f782e8a979cfb1e4d0b8e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37030
content:
"Climate change has impacted European marine food production \r\n(high confidence); however, extraction is still the major impact on \r\ncommercially important fish stocks in Europe (Mullon et  al., 2016), \r\nwith 69% of stocks overfished and 51% outside safe biological limits \r\n(Froese et al., 2018). The North Sea, the Iberian Coastal Sea and the \r\nCeltic Sea-Biscay Shelf are globally among the areas most negatively \r\naffected by warming with losses of 15-35% in maximum sustainable \r\nyields (MSY) during recent decades (Free et  al., 2019). Warming \r\nhas caused ongoing northward movement and range expansion of \r\nNortheast Atlantic fish stocks (Section 13.4; Baudron et al., 2020). In \r\nthe North Sea, cuttlefish (van der Kooij et al., 2016; Oesterwind et al., \r\n2020) and tuna (Bennema, 2018; Faillettaz et al., 2019) have become \r\nnew target species (medium confidence). In SEU, warm-water species "


id: 8f1520af9b2d78c7788c9ca4a05a20e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20051
content:
"Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association \r\nof pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops \r\n(high confidence) (Caffarra et al., 2012; Pushnya and Shirinyan, 2015; \r\nLatchininsky, 2017) with high risk for contamination of cereals (Moretti \r\net al., 2019). Regionally predicted reduction in rainfall (Section 13.1) \r\ncan lead to carryover of herbicides (Karkanis et al., 2018)."


id: 42ac303c7101262f0f175cc9346b1698
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7881
content:
"Net yield losses will reduce economic output from agriculture in the \r\nEU, reaching a reduction of 7% for the EU and the UK combined, and \r\n10% in SEU at 4degC GWL (Naumann et al., 2021). Farmland values are "


id: 3195aef2a5a00f40da008ea786164ac7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5211
content:
"increasingly dominate fisheries landings (Fortibuoni et  al., 2015; \r\nTeixeira et al., 2016; Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017)."


id: 178aedb33bd581b6cb3520017f9f0499
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1202
content:
"adaptive capacity (Barange et al., 2014; Ding et al., 2017). European \r\nfreshwater production is suggested to be less vulnerable than marine \r\nsectors and marine production vulnerability increases with latitude \r\n(Blanchet et  al., 2019). In the aquaculture sector, Norway is highly \r\nvulnerable due to the high sensitivity of salmon farming to warming \r\nand high per-capita production (Handisyde et al., 2017). In the fisheries \r\nsector, vulnerability for fishing communities is highest in SEU and the "


id: 688be32225c9ea0fab291bbb2eceaf35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14039
content:
"g| y qp\r\n(a) vulnerability for fisheries in 105 coastal regions across 26 countries based on biological traits and physiological metrics of 556 resource populations (Payne et al., 2021); \r\n(b) vulnerability of major aquaculture species in European countries on physiological attributes, farming methods and economic output (Peck et al., 2020); \r\n(c,d) differences (%) between projected changes for 1.5degC and 4degC GWL (Peck et al., 2020), with (c) changes in abundance of major fish species by region, and (d) changes in \r\nproductivity of major aquaculture species by country"


id: 41969e4243ccedc8f355053ef3fd0e64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7716
content:
"UK (Figure  13.9A; Handisyde et  al., 2017; Payne et  al., 2021), while \r\nfor aquaculture sectors, it is highest in SEU and some NEU and WCE \r\ncountries (Figure 13.9B, 2020)."


id: 4386314e2c5a94100ba0a3b6bcef8f0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8033
content:
"Future vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities are projected to strongly \r\nvary regionally and between major fisheries and aquaculture species \r\n(Figure  13.13 c,d; Peck et  al., 2020). Assuming MSY management, \r\nprojections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks \r\nin European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between \r\n1.5degC and 4.0degC GWL (medium confidence) (Figure 13.13; Peck et al., \r\n2020; Payne et al., 2021). In response to 4degC GWL, higher trophic-level \r\nbiomass is projected to increase in the SEUS mainly due to increases \r\nin small pelagic and thermophilic, often exotic, species (Moullec et al., \r\n2019)."


id: bc69a78d56298b9fe32734c114c35fdd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27224
content:
"Ocean acidification (Section 13.4; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk \r\nfor marine food production in Europe under 4degC GWL (high confidence), \r\naffecting recruitment of important European fish stocks, such as those \r\nof cod in the Western Baltic and Barents Sea, by 8 and 24%, respectively \r\n(Swat et al., 2018b; Stiasny et al., 2018; Voss et al., 2019). Acidification \r\nis also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and \r\naquaculture in Europe with 4degC GWL (medium confidence) (Fernandes \r\net al., 2017; Narita and Rehdanz, 2017; Mangi et al., 2018)."


id: 8408e40df8e54418d3897eb4c57230b1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18307
content:
"reduce the period for photosynthesis and grain filling (high confidence) \r\n(Ruiz-Ramos et  al., 2018; Holzkamper, 2020). Crop breeding for \r\ndrought and heat tolerance can improve sustainability of agricultural \r\nproduction under future climate (Costa et  al., 2019), particularly in \r\nSEU where drought-tolerant varieties provide 30% higher yields than \r\ndrought-sensitive varieties at 3degC GWL (Senapati et  al., 2019). Soil \r\nmanagement practices, such as crop residue retention or improved \r\ncrop rotations, generally undertaken as a mitigation option to increase \r\nsoil carbon sequestration, are not commonly evaluated for adaptation \r\nin European agriculture (Hamidov et al., 2018)."


id: 6b1cbcc7b6e106d8fa61da437801514d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14470
content:
"The solution space for climate-change adaption for food and timber \r\nincludes production-related options (Sections  13.5.2.1-13.5.2.3) \r\nand market-based changes to consumer demand and trade \r\n(Section 13.5.2.4). The assessment of effectiveness and feasibility of \r\noptions in the food system is summarised in Figure 13.14."


id: e244cc1e7e768f45c0f457126e2c9e35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33100
content:
"Agroecological systems provide adaptation options that rely on \r\necological process (e.g., soil organic matter recycling and functional \r\ndiversification) to lower inputs without impacting productivity \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in Chapter 2; Aguilera et  al., 2020). \r\nHigh-frequency rotational grazing and mixed livestock systems are \r\nagroecological strategies to control pathogens (Aguilera et al., 2020). \r\nAgroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock \r\n(silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience \r\nto climate change (Chapter 5), but implementation in Europe needs \r\nimproved training programmes and policy support (high confidence) \r\n(Hernandez-Morcillo et al., 2018)."


id: d9f5f0901659e1ac8b7983da7d26519e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31813
content:
"Technological innovations, including 'smart farming' and knowledge \r\ntraining, can strengthen farmers' responses to climate impacts (Dele\u0002glise et  al., 2019; Kernecker et  al., 2019), although strong belief in \r\n'technosalvation' by farmers (Ricart et al., 2019) can reduce the solu\u0002tion space and timing of adaptation options. Agricultural policy, market \r\nprices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more impor\u0002tant role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate\u0002change impacts (high confidence) (Juhola et al., 2016; Hamidov et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 709116731f982f050dc4b5b96920dca0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15328
content:
"Changes to cultivars and sowing dates can reduce yield losses \r\n(Figure 13.15) but are insufficient to fully ameliorate losses projected \r\n>3degC GWL, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops \r\ngrowing later in the season such as maize and wheat (high confidence) \r\n(Ruiz-Ramos et  al., 2018; Feyen et  al., 2020). Adaptations for early \r\nmaturing reduce yield loss by moving the cycle towards a cooler part of \r\nyear, and also constrains the increases in irrigation water demands, but "


id: ab92bbcf683a96aade1af2045a4cf00e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24515
content:
"Effective policy guidance is needed to increase the climate resilience \r\nof agriculture (Spinoni et  al., 2018; Toreti et  al., 2019b). Financial \r\nmeasures include simplifying procedures for obtaining subsidies, and \r\ninsurance premiums and interest rates that incentivise adoption of "


id: 3487d5ac55e498d23505a19b6b54d30d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5676
content:
"Figure 13.15 |  Projected yield changes with climate change for 1.5degC (RCP2.6), 1.7degC (RCP4.5) and 2degC GWL (RCP8.5). Altered crop management and associated \r\nwater demand shows: "


id: f2fc1d47e19b8bd2c210037e4c6e1404
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35750
content:
"(a) relative yield changes under climate change and elevated CO2 for current production systems (i.e., rain-fed and irrigated simulations weighted by current the share of rain-fed \r\nand irrigated areas); "


id: bfa012372af4d201e5bbb6f366667607
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27707
content:
"(d) water demand for irrigated systems with current varieties in currently rain-fed areas (Webber et al., 2018). Relative yield changes to a period centred on 2055 relative to a \r\nbaseline period centred on 1995. Box plots are Europe's aggregate results considering current production areas (a) or current rain-fed areas (b,c), showing uncertainty across crop \r\nmodels and general circulation models. The maps are for the crop model median for RCP4.5 (1.7degC GWL) with GFDL-CM3."


id: babb567102e82bb0495df445f59eac8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26920
content:
"climate-friendly agricultural methods (Garrote et al., 2015; Iglesias and \r\nGarrote, 2015; Zakharov and Sharipova, 2017; Hamidov et al., 2018; \r\nWirehn, 2018). The EU's Common Agricultural Policy has increasingly \r\nfocused on environmental outcomes (Alliance Environnement, 2018) \r\nbut does not sufficiently provide for adaptation measures (Leventon \r\net  al., 2017; Pe'er et  al., 2020). Limits to European farm-level \r\nadaptation include lack of resources for investment, political urgency \r\nto adapt, institutional capacity, access to adaptation knowledge and \r\ninformation from other countries (EEA, 2019c)."


id: 2c433309c9cfb2b961b02acd78ff442b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:16
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4392
content:
"Conservation areas can also help climate-change adaptation by keeping \r\nthe forest cover intact, creating favourable microclimates and protecting \r\nbiodiversity (low confidence) (Jantke et al., 2016)."


id: d10bcb96fa7f8a293d448c89ecf46d5b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30426
content:
"Reforestation reduces warming rates (Zellweger et  al., 2020) and \r\nextremely warm days (Sonntag et  al., 2016) inside forests, reducing \r\nnatural disturbances and fires (high confidence). Active management \r\napproaches can limit the impact of fires (Section  13.3.1) on forest \r\nproductivity, including fuel reduction management, prescribed \r\nburning, changing from conifers to deciduous, less flammable species, \r\nand recreating mixed forests (Feyen et  al., 2020) and agroforestry \r\n(Damianidis et al., 2020)."


id: 59b054c8e2c88105d62fb512d742b989
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11610
content:
"Climate-resilient fish production in Europe is the goal of the EU's \r\nCommon Fisheries Policy (CFP) rebuilding fish stocks to MSY levels, but \r\nsuccess has been variable (Froese et al., 2018; Stecf, 2019). Adaptation \r\nis largely ignored in related EU policy frameworks such as the CFP, the \r\nMSFD and the 'Strategic guidelines for the sustainable development \r\nof EU aquaculture'. (Pham et al., 2021). A major governance challenge \r\nfor adaptation will be the redistribution of the fixed allocation scheme \r\nfor total allowable catches (Harte et al., 2019; Baudron et al., 2020). \r\nInflexible and non-adaptive allocation schemes can result in conflicts \r\namong European countries (medium confidence), as demonstrated by \r\nthe case of the Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Spijkers and Boonstra, \r\n2017)."


id: ce6fc7c744bf37fe88a3880e8a82692c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30011
content:
"The development of adaptation strategies for seafood production \r\nsince the Paris Agreement is insufficient in Europe (high confidence) \r\n(Kalikoski et al., 2018; Pham et al., 2021). Concrete plans for adaptation \r\nplanning towards climate-ready fisheries and aquaculture are lacking in \r\nall parts of Europe (European Comission, 2018), especially accounting \r\nfor the expected reduced landings of traditional target species and in \r\npreparation for a new portfolio of resource species (Blanchet et  al., \r\n2019)."


id: f8d7a01501d725bacf0c018eb592e955
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36661
content:
"Recent scientific progress towards adaptation in European fisheries \r\nand aquaculture include conceptual guidance and demonstration \r\ncases on climate adaptation planning (Pham et al., 2021) and climate \r\nvulnerability assessments (Blanchet et al., 2019; Peck et al., 2020; Payne \r\net al., 2021). Sociopolitical scenarios for European aquatic resources \r\nhave been developed and have the potential to inform adaptation \r\nplanning by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors (Kreiss et al., \r\n2020; Hamon et al., 2021; Pinnegar et al., 2021)."


id: 1a2d30744363183ee22123aa6a5487c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1583
content:
"Aggregated projections of impacts, especially of combined hazards, \r\nare still rare despite many physiological papers on species-specific \r\nresponses to warming in all food sectors (high confidence). This \r\nis specifically true for scenarios that consider land-use change \r\nand population growth, although Agri SSPs are currently being \r\ndeveloped (Mitter et  al., 2019). Effectiveness of adaptation options \r\nis predominantly qualitatively mentioned but not assessed, and the \r\neffectiveness of combinations of measures is rarely assessed (high \r\nconfidence) (Ewert et  al., 2015; Holman et  al., 2018; Muller et  al., \r\n2020). Effective adaptation planning would be supported by better \r\nmodelling and scenario development including improved coupled \r\nnature-human interactions (e.g., with more realistic representation of \r\nbehaviours beyond economic rationality and 'bottom-up' autonomous \r\nfarmer adaptations) as well as greater stakeholder involvement."


id: b6260846d6481a8ffcdfdedb75f78864
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26186
content:
"Forest management has been adopted as a frequent strategy to cope with \r\ndrought, reduce fire risk, and maintain biodiverse landscapes and rural \r\njobs (Hlasny et al., 2014; Fernandez-Manjarres et al., 2018). Successful \r\nadaptation strategies include altering the tree species composition to \r\nenhance the resilience of European forests (high confidence) (Schelhaas \r\net al., 2015; Zubizarreta-Gerendiain et al., 2017; Pukkala, 2018). Greater \r\ndiversity of tree species reduces vulnerability to pests and pathogens \r\n(Felton et  al., 2016), and increases resistance to natural disturbances \r\n(high confidence) (Jactel et al., 2017; Pukkala, 2018; Pardos et al., 2021). \r\nDepending on forest successional history (Sheil and Bongers, 2020), tree \r\ncomposition change can increase carbon sequestration (high confidence) \r\n(Liang et al., 2016), biodiversity and water quality (Felton et al., 2016). "


id: e7e8c104ad753f8021462aa9dce7a855
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33982
content:
"Reduced surface wind speeds during 1979-2016 (Frolov et al., 2014; \r\nPerevedentsev and Aukhadeev, 2014; Tian et  al., 2019) support \r\nprojected trends in decreasing onshore wind energy potential. Seasonal \r\nchanges may result in reductions in many areas in summer (by 8-30% \r\nin Southern Europe) and increases in most of NEU during winter. \r\nIncreasing probabilities and persistence of high winds over the Aegean \r\nand Baltic seas (Weber et al., 2018a) could create new opportunities \r\nfor offshore wind. The future configuration of the wind fleet will affect \r\nthe spatial and temporal variability of wind power production (Tobin \r\net al., 2016). Total backup energy needs in Europe could increase by \r\n4-7% by 2100 (Wohland et al., 2017) with potentially larger seasonal \r\nchanges (Weber et al., 2018b)."


id: e820a217ec6a2dd133c14fa6b3407232
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34024
content:
"increase production and export of agricultural products, especially \r\nwheat, meat and milk (Swinnen et al., 2017)."


id: 862d79bcb4a901507e11f9917061c6a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18652
content:
"A bias towards modelling of cereals, specifically wheat and maize, \r\nresults in gaps in knowledge for fruit and vegetables, especially for \r\ntemperate regions in Europe (Bisbis et  al., 2019). The assessment \r\nof irrigation needs and the impact of CO2 and O3 tend to focus on \r\nindividual species and processes hindering upscaling to multiple \r\nstressors and mixed production (high confidence) (Challinor et  al., \r\n2016; Webber et al., 2016)."


id: 9c38598d8322f6c7b03e00d074868a84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22133
content:
"There is a lack of actionable adaptation strategies for European \r\nfisheries and aquaculture. Knowledge gaps include adaptive capacities \r\nof local fishing communities to a new mix of target species and \r\nconsumer acceptance of the product. Increased knowledge on the \r\neffects on freshwater fisheries and their resources is also needed."


id: bfd793f8861823319d324ba336e6c4ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27738
content:
"There is low evidence and limited agreement on projections of solar \r\npower potential due to differences in the integration of aerosols and \r\nthe estimated cloud cover between climate models (Bartok et al., 2017; \r\nBoe et al., 2020; Gutierrez et al., 2020). Studies on climate risks for \r\nbioenergy are also limited."


id: 77325482e5690c844827a43234d4dfd9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16319
content:
"Urban areas in Europe house 547 million inhabitants, corresponding to \r\n74% of the total European population (UN/DESA, 2018). In the EU-28, \r\n39% of the total population lives in metropolitan regions (i.e., areas \r\nwith at least 1  million inhabitants) where 47% of the total GDP is \r\ngenerated (Eurostat, 2016). Apart from urban settlements, this section \r\nalso covers energy and transport systems, as well as tourism, industrial \r\nand business sectors which are key for livelihood, economic prosperity \r\nand the well-being of residents."


id: 2bb1972dd4f576460926e90abd0c5464
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4305
content:
"The energy sector in Europe already faces impacts from climate extremes \r\n(high confidence). Significant reductions and interruptions of power \r\nsupply have been observed during exceptionally dry and/or hot years of \r\nthe recent 20-year period, for example, in France, Germany, Switzerland \r\nand the UK during the extremely hot summer of 2018 which led to water\u0002cooling constraints on power plants (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Abi-Samra, \r\n2017; Vogel et al., 2019). Heating-degree days decreased and cooling\u0002degree days increased during 1951-2014, with clearer trends after 1980 \r\n(De Rosa et al., 2015; Spinoni et al., 2015; EEA, 2017a). Projected climate \r\nrisks for energy supply are summarised in Figure 13.16."


id: 2f949ec29a713f73ade3d87f82f357b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4907
content:
"Heatwaves in 2015 and 2018 in parts of WCE and NEU caused road \r\nmelting, railway asset failures and speed restrictions to reduce the \r\nlikelihood of track buckling (Ferranti et al., 2018; Vogel et al., 2019). \r\nRecent studies on projected risks focus mainly on infrastructure and \r\nmuch less on transport flows and disruptions."


id: ac23b31418feac1480e7a63fcd52bca7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24616
content:
"New studies reinforce the findings of AR5 on risks for thermoelectric \r\npower and regional differences between NEU and SEU regarding risks \r\nfor hydropower (Figure 13.16). In NEU and EEU, extremely high water \r\ninflows to dams are projected to increase flooding risks for plant and \r\nnearby settlements (Chernet Haregewoin et al., 2014; Porfiriev et al., \r\n2017), while increasing temperatures could reduce the efficiency of \r\nsteam and gas turbines (Porfiriev et  al., 2017; Cronin et  al., 2018; \r\nKlimenko et  al., 2018a). Water scarcity may limit onshore carbon \r\ncapture and storage in some regions (Byers et al., 2016; Murrant et al., \r\n2017; EEA, 2019a)."


id: f362e77811a229a839180844f061061a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35801
content:
"Sea level rise (Section  13.2) may disrupt port operations and \r\nsurrounding areas, mainly in parts of NEU and WCE (Christodoulou \r\net  al., 2018), while changes of waves agitation could increase the \r\nnon-operability hours of some Mediterranean ports beyond 2degC GWL \r\n(Sierra et al., 2016; Camus et al., 2019; Izaguirre et al., 2021). Low\u0002water-level days at some critical locations for inland navigation at \r\nthe Rhine River are projected to increase beyond 2degC GWL, while "


id: 1a39dcb09751770d118a8705d318cfc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 1591
content:
"no adaptation (Bubeck et  al., 2019). Thermal discomfort in urban \r\nunderground railways is expected to increase, even at a high level of \r\ncarriage cooling (Jenkins et al., 2014a)."


id: 479175626aa0cabd4c1a87a92603a79e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8649
content:
"decreases at the Danube River are possible (van Slobbe et al., 2016; \r\nChristodoulou et al., 2020)."


id: d1f8e3a88f4e957d252cd6c6e0d55598
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30563
content:
"The number of airports vulnerable to inundation from SLR and storm \r\nsurges may double between 2030 and 2080 without adaptation, \r\nespecially close to the North Sea and Mediterranean coasts (Christodoulou \r\nand Demirel, 2018). Rising temperatures reducing lift generation could \r\nimpose weight restrictions for large aircraft at 2degC GWL and beyond in \r\nairports of France, the UK and Spain (Coffel et al., 2017). There is a lack of \r\nstudies quantifying the effect of future extreme events on flight arrivals \r\nat, and departures from, European airports."


id: 3f7fa3ffe344c57a745923aeae958dd7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7378
content:
"European industrial and service sectors contribute 85% to gross value \r\nadded in EU-28 (Eurostat, 2020); while their direct exposure and \r\nvulnerability is smaller compared with sectors directly reliant on weather, \r\nthey are directly and indirectly affected by heat, flooding, water scarcity \r\nand drought (Weinhofer and Busch, 2013; Gasbarro and Pinkse, 2016; \r\nMeinel and Schule, 2018; Schiemann and Sakhel, 2018; TEG, 2019). \r\nHeat reduces the productivity of labour particularly in construction, \r\nagriculture and manufacturing (Section 13.7.1; Garcia-Leon et al., 2021; \r\nSchleypen et al., 2021). Direct losses from floods in Europe are highest \r\nfor manufacturing, utilities and transportation; indirect losses arise, for \r\nexample, for manufacturing, construction, and banking and insurance \r\n(Koks et  al., 2019a; Sieg et  al., 2019; Mendoza-Tinoco et  al., 2020). "


id: f19da9b31b95be6d144ec38a5097b250
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35519
content:
"The current flood risk for railways could double or triple at 1.5-3degC \r\nGWL, particularly in WCE, increasing public expenditure for rail \r\ntransport in Europe by 1.22 billion EUR annually under 3degC GWL and "


id: db1ca662cf0db8ddf12f9adfc6e6ecb9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31989
content:
"Jacob et al., 2018; Koutroulis et al., 2018). The amenity of European \r\nbeaches may decrease as a result of SLR amplifying coastal erosion \r\nand inundation risks, although less in NEU (Section 13.2; Ebert et al., \r\n2016; Toimil et al., 2018; Lopez-Doriga et al., 2019; Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021)."


id: dc7393ef16389370143d8440de9f3cc4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32185
content:
"Drought and water scarcity directly affect European industries in the \r\nsectors of pulp and paper, chemical and plastic manufacturing, and food \r\nand beverages (Gasbarro et al., 2019; Teotonio et al., 2020); additionally, \r\ndrought may indirectly affect sectors relying on shipping, hydropower \r\nor public water supply (Naumann et al., 2021). The European financial \r\nand insurance sector is affected by climate-change impacts via their \r\ncustomers and financial markets (Bank of England, 2015; Georgopoulou \r\net al., 2015; Battiston et al., 2017; TCFD, 2017; Bank of England, 2019; \r\nde Bruin et al., 2020; Monasterolo, 2020)."


id: ee26b17291ab154c9e52ef6c35c45ed5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34940
content:
"The expected shift of European residents to large cities and coastal \r\nareas will increase assets at risk (Section  13.2). The share of urban \r\npopulation in Europe is projected to increase from 74% in 2015 to \r\n84% in 2050, corresponding to 77 million new urban residents (UN/\r\nDESA, 2018), with most of this increase in SEU and WCE (particularly \r\nin Turkey and France). In the EU-28, urban residents in 2100 may \r\nincrease by about 30 million under SSP1 and SSP5, and decrease by \r\n90-110 million under SSP3 and SSP4 (Terama et al., 2019)."


id: addb64f9fdc10e75224c36ee40dd1ddd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24890
content:
"The vulnerability to climate hazards varies by European region, type of \r\nrisk, sector and business characteristics (Gasbarro et al., 2016; Forzieri \r\net al., 2018; ECB, 2021a; Kouloukoui et al., 2021). Current damages \r\nare mainly related to river floods and storms, but heat and drought \r\nwill become major drivers in the future (medium confidence). Until \r\n2050, the probability of default of firms located in particularly exposed \r\nlocations may increase to up to four times that of an average firm in \r\nall sectors (ECB, 2021a)."


id: 2f104ce01c75d8bd2d53a029e24f70a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4834
content:
"About 32% of 571 European cities in the GISCO Urban Audit 2014 \r\ndataset show a medium to high or relatively high vulnerability against \r\nheatwaves, droughts and floods (Tapia et  al., 2017). Under current \r\nvulnerabilities, future climate hazards will augment climate risks for \r\nseveral cities, particularly beyond 3degC GWL (Figure  13.17). In many \r\nNEU cities, a high increase in pluvial flooding risk by the end of the \r\ncentury is possible, while in WCE cities may face a high increase in \r\npluvial flooding risks, moderate to very high increase in extreme heat \r\nrisk, and to some extent moderate to high increase in drought risk. \r\nMany SEU cities could face a high to very high increase in risks from \r\nextreme heat and meteorological drought."


id: b979620d80a57a4db211c3feb190de7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26723
content:
"Many European sectors are exposed to multiple and cross-cutting \r\nrisks (Gasbarro et  al., 2019; Schleypen et  al., 2021). Indirect effects \r\nvia supply chains, transport and electricity networks can be as high as, \r\nor substantially higher than, direct effects (medium confidence) (Koks \r\net al., 2019a; Koks et al., 2019b; Knittel et al., 2020)."


id: 329908cd09c6196fd20cc2c5f0695c0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5381
content:
"Snow-cover duration and snow depth in the Alps has decreased since \r\nthe 1960s (Klein et al., 2016; Schoner et al., 2019; Matiu et al., 2021). \r\nDespite snowmaking, the number of skiers to French resorts at low \r\nelevations during the extraordinary warm and dry winters of 2006-\r\n2007 and 2010-2011 was 12-26% lower (Falk and Vanat, 2016)."


id: 59c01536f125795f261b5945cc2a3573
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 11622
content:
"New studies increase confidence in AR5 statements that flood \r\ndamages will increase in coastal areas due to SLR and changing social \r\nand economic conditions (Section 13.2.1.1). Except for areas affected \r\nby land uplift, it is projected that further adaptation will be required \r\nto maintain risks at the present level for most coastal cities and \r\nsettlements (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Ranger et al., 2013; Malinin et al., \r\n2018; Hinkel et al., 2019; Umgiesser, 2020)."


id: 765de75b35bc4e95be8655a67f5b692
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 16213
content:
"Due to reduced snow availability and hotter summers, damages are \r\nprojected for the European tourism industry, with larger losses in \r\nSEU (high confidence) and some smaller gains in the rest of Europe \r\n(medium confidence) (Ciscar Martinez et al., 2014; Roson and Sartori, \r\n2016; Dellink et al., 2019)."


id: 6a7f8df1de63eb9e1f52d33ae8c4f151
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 14372
content:
"In many cities, the sewer system is older than 40  years, potentially \r\nreducing their capacity to deal with more intense pluvial flooding (EEA, \r\n2020b). Apart from climate change, urbanisation is an important driver \r\nfor increases in flooding risks as it results in growth of impervious \r\nsurfaces. Flash floods are particularly challenging, causing the \r\noverburdening of drainage systems (Dale et al., 2018), urban transport \r\ndisruptions, and health and pollution impacts due to untreated sewage \r\ndischarges (Kourtis and Tsihrintzis, 2021)."


id: 522ec639edc43a4ca536315cf68a3515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10382
content:
"At 2degC GWL, the operation of low-altitude resorts without snowmaking \r\nwill likely be discontinued, while beyond 3degC GWL, snowmaking will be \r\nnecessary, but not always sufficient, for most resorts in many European \r\nmountains and parts of NEU (Pons et al., 2015; Joly and Ungureanu, \r\n2018; Scott et al., 2019; Spandre et al., 2019). Expanding snowmaking \r\nis capital intensive and will strongly increase water and energy \r\nconsumption, particularly at 3degC GWL and beyond (Spandre et  al., \r\n2019; Morin et al., 2021), adversely affecting the financial stability of \r\nsmall resorts (Pons et al., 2015; Falk and Vanat, 2016; Spandre et al., \r\n2016; Joly and Ungureanu, 2018; Moreno-Gene et al., 2018; Steiger \r\nand Scott, 2020). Permafrost degradation due to rising temperatures is \r\nexpected to create stability risks for ropeway transport infrastructure \r\nat high-altitude Alpine areas (Duvillard et al., 2019)."


id: b56a4a5ffa88556b4139346a1f959bf9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26077
content:
"More than 25% of the population in nearly 13% of EU cities live within \r\npotential river floodplains. In many of these places (e.g., 50% of UK \r\ncities), a significant increase in the 10-year high river flow is possible \r\nbeyond 2degC GWL under a high-impact scenario (i.e., 90th percentile of \r\nprojections) (Guerreiro et al., 2018; EEA, 2020b)."


id: d81f12def8bc4279e22d08916f363b95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 31526
content:
"Climatic conditions from May to October at 1.5-2degC GWL are projected \r\nto become more favourable for summer tourism in NEU and parts of \r\nWCE and EEU, while there is medium confidence on opposite trends \r\nfor SEU from June to August (Grillakis et al., 2016; Scott et al., 2016; "


id: 895587607d55425443ef7e20bdffb306
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 19146
content:
"fewer air conditioning installations (Ward et al., 2016; Thomson et al., \r\n2019). Cooling energy demand in SEU buildings has been projected \r\nto increase by 81-104% by 2035 and 91-244% after 2065 compared \r\nwith 1961-1990 depending on GWL (Cellura et al., 2018). Increases of \r\n31-73% by 2050 and 165-323% by 2100 compared with 1996-2005 \r\nwere estimated for buildings in NEU (Dodoo and Gustavsson, 2016) \r\nwith risks modified by adaptation (Section 13.6.2; Viguie et al., 2020). \r\nCold waves beyond 3degC GWL will not represent an effective threat for \r\nEuropean cities at the end of the century, and only a marginal hazard \r\nunder 2degC GWL (Smid et al., 2019)."


id: 809efc327270e131ef7c6b4142a685ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17763
content:
"Heatwave days and number of long heatwaves increased in most \r\ncapitals from 1998-2015 compared with 1980-1997 (Morabito et al., \r\n2017; Seneviratne et al., 2021). In the summer of 2018, many cities \r\nsuffered from heatwaves attributed to climate change (Vogel et  al., \r\n2019; Undorf et al., 2020). As a result, indoor overheating and reduced \r\noutdoor thermal comfort, often coupled with urban heat island (UHI) \r\neffect, have already impacted European cities (see also Section 13.7.1; \r\nDi Napoli et al., 2018; EEA, 2020b)."


id: a54ef2f6aa9e4ffce4e8757a9100f021
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23573
content:
"Extreme heat and drought causes shrinking and swelling of clays, \r\nthreatening the stability of small houses in peri-urban environments \r\n(Pritchard et al., 2015), with damage costs of 0.9-1 billion EUR during "


id: 82a1063a2b1c45cdbbf8d0bb911ee055
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18074
content:
"Table 13.1 |  Present status of planned and implemented adaptation in European cities, energy sector, tourism sector, transport and industry (Table SM13.17)"


id: 648aefae22b3d836a9cd8dab2091817
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13385
content:
"the European part of the Russian Arctic has increased by 0.5-2degC, result\u0002ing in damage to buildings, roads and pipelines, and to significant ex\u0002penditure for stabilising soils (Porfiriev et al., 2017; Konnova and Lvova, \r\n2019). Beyond 3degC GWL, the bearing capacity for infrastructure in the \r\npermafrost region of the European Russia could decrease by 32-75% \r\nby mid-century and by 95% by 2100, potentially affecting settlements in \r\nnorthern EEU (Shiklomanov et al., 2017; Streletskiy et al., 2019). The in\u0002creasing number of cycles of freezing and thawing, observed in EEU, has \r\nled to accelerated ageing of building envelopes (Section 13.8.1.4; Frolov \r\net al., 2014). Permafrost degradation due to higher temperatures could \r\nincrease the potential of debris flow detachment in Alpine locations \r\n(Section 13.6.1.4; Damm and Felderer, 2013)."


id: da30a0b150bdf704d02e9cb37b148ecf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31853
content:
"the 2003 heatwave (Corti et al., 2011). In WCE and SEU, mean annual \r\ndamage costs could increase by 50% for 2degC GWL, and by a factor of \r\n2 for 3degC GWL (Naumann et al., 2021)."


id: 6cfaf55e3f73b0ddd620dd855247761c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14770
content:
"Increasing temperatures in NEU and the Alps has led to accelerated deg\u0002radation of permafrost, negatively affecting the stability of infrastruc\u0002tures (Stoffel et al., 2014; Beniston et al., 2018; Duvillard et al., 2019). \r\nIn the Caucasus, glacial mudflows due to permafrost degradation and \r\nmodern tectonic processes pose a significant danger to the infrastruc\u0002ture (Vaskov, 2016). In the past 30 years, the permafrost temperature in "


id: 22424003b39b7e5ed50d0b3db675b2e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2838
content:
"Increased precipitation falling on local topography can increase land\u0002slide and mudflow risks, as seen in settlements at the Caucasus moun\u0002tainous region (Marchenko et al., 2017; Efremov and Shulyakov, 2018; \r\nKerimov et al., 2020). At the Umbria region in Italy, landslide events \r\ncould increase by 16-53% under 2degC GWL and by 24-107% beyond \r\n3degC GWL, mostly during winter (Ciabatta et al., 2016). Risks from shal\u0002low landslides are expected to increase in the Alps and Carpathians \r\nif no adequate risk mitigation measures are put in place (CCP5.3.2; \r\nGariano and Guzzetti, 2016)."


id: cdfb85dc81f1a84bee7dba399cca4a3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29928
content:
"Monetary assessments of future damages from climate extremes on \r\ncritical infrastructures show an escalating sevenfold increase by 2080s \r\n(Figure  13.18) compared with the baseline (Forzieri et  al., 2018), \r\nhighlighting the need for adaptation."


id: f604e58314651fc33fc7aba6ce7c184e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36219
content:
"When selecting and combining adaptation options, challenges remain \r\non how to address the uncertainties of climate projections and climatic \r\nextremes (Fowler et  al., 2021) and to translate scientific input into \r\npractical guidance for adaptation (Section 13.11.1.3; Dale, 2021)."


id: 343ed030e0f35a16fd5c21e913f27468
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 5631
content:
"There is new evidence on increasing adaptation planning in cities, \r\nsettlements and key infrastructures, but less on implemented adaptation \r\n(Table 13.1; see Box 13.3; Figure 13.36), adaptation by private actors \r\nand by cities against SLR (Chapter 16; Cross-Chapter Paper 2)."


id: 7d76dd5e73b39acc43400799c8edca8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17310
content:
"An assessment of the feasibility and effectiveness of the main \r\nadaptation options, based on the literature, is presented in Figure 13.20. \r\n(For adaptation to flood risk, see Figure 13.6.)"


id: 4e66e2f064c601ba045aaa2207d80395
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 9762
content:
"Although urban adaptation is underway, many small, economically weak \r\n(i.e., with low GDP per capita) or cities facing high climate-change risks \r\nlack adaptation planning (Reckien et al., 2015; EEA, 2016). While almost \r\nall large municipalities in NEU and WCE report implemented actions at \r\nleast in one sector, this is not the case for 39% of municipalities in SEU \r\n(Aguiar et al., 2018). In the UK, the legal requirement to develop urban \r\nadaptation plans has been a significant driver for their widespread \r\nadoption (Reckien et al., 2015). The availability of, and access to, funding \r\nfor adaptation is also crucial for plan development (Section 13.11.1). \r\nNetwork membership (e.g., ICLEI, C40, Covenant of Mayors for Climate \r\n& Energy) is an important driver for city planning and transfer of best \r\npractices (Heikkinen et al., 2020a). Stakeholder engagement is key for \r\nsuccessful adaptation (Chapter 17; Bertoldi et al., 2020)."


id: 15ca968c052b61dc6523f943fcd7d862
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 949
content:
"There are gaps in knowledge on the social, environmental and \r\ngeophysical dimensions of feasibility for many options, and a holistic \r\nassessment of different options is largely lacking. This latter issue could \r\nreveal unintended impacts from, and synergies or trade-offs between, \r\noptions, as in water and wastewater services (Dobson and Mijic, 2020)."


id: 717f83e426efd11f64c581959ba55945
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15491
content:
"Adaptation in cities, settlements and key infrastructures in Europe faces \r\ntechnical, environmental, economic and social limits (Figure 13.21)."


id: c6f0402f49a5a00e673431048ca3bcd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 28882
content:
"Adaptation options for many sectors will not be sufficient to remove \r\nresidual risks, for example, regarding (a) overheating in buildings under \r\nhigh GWL (Tillson et al., 2013; Virk et al., 2014; Dodoo and Gustavsson, \r\n2016; Mulville and Stravoravdis, 2016; Hamdy et al., 2017; Heracleous \r\nand Michael, 2018; Dino and Meral Akgul, 2019); (b) snowmaking \r\nbeyond 3degC GWL (Scott et al., 2019; Steiger and Scott, 2020; Steiger \r\net  al., 2020); (c) hydropower (Gaudard et  al., 2013; Ranzani et  al., \r\n2018); (d) electricity transmission and demand (Bollinger and Dijkema, \r\n2016; EEA, 2019a; Palkowski et al., 2019); (e) urban subways (Jenkins \r\net al., 2014a); and (f) flood mitigation in cities (Skougaard Kaspersen \r\net  al., 2017; Umgiesser, 2020). Some adaptation actions in a sector \r\nmay also have side effects on others, increasing their vulnerability \r\n(Sections 13.2.2, 13.2.3; Pranzini et al., 2015)."


id: fb8450f3a1d909f8ad145398991a9bfb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37071
content:
"Only 29% of local adaptation plans are mainstreamed in cities, \r\nwhich could reduce the effectiveness of implementing adaptation \r\n(Section 13.11.1.2; Reckien et al., 2019). Although large municipalities \r\nusually fund the implementation of their adaptation plans, smaller \r\nand less populated municipalities (particularly in SEU and EEU) often \r\ndepend on intergovernmental, international and national funding."


id: 5758d1c010738fb4a6a43c38079fe4b1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11235
content:
"Both NbS and EbA, such as green spaces, ponds, wetlands and \r\ngreen roofs for urban stormwater management and vegetation for \r\nheat mitigation, represent an emerging adaptation option in cities. \r\nCombined with traditional water infrastructure, they can contribute to \r\nmanaging urban flood events (Kourtis and Tsihrintzis, 2021), playing a \r\nrole in mitigating flood peaks (Pour et al., 2020) and protecting critical \r\nurban infrastructure (Ossa-Moreno et al., 2017). For example, in the "


id: 4b1ba4bf340b8138eb1639224cafde02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9236
content:
"Examples of transformative adaptation in urban areas have been \r\nobserved (e.g., the Benthemplein water square, the Floating Pavilion in \r\nRotterdam and the Hafencity flood proofing in Hamburg), but they often \r\nremain policy experiments and prove challenging to upscale (Jacob, \r\n2015; Restemeyer et al., 2015; Restemeyer et al., 2018; Holscher et al., \r\n2019). Active involvement of local stakeholders, public administration "


id: 9f26fdd82184ec5d4db27e136050846a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"the private-sector involvement in Rotterdam is much more pronounced \r\nand there are joint public-private responsibilities throughout most of \r\nthe policy process due to the large share of private ownership of land \r\nand real estate (Mees et al., 2014)."


id: 31ba433c16b7fdd8dfbddbfce2b75127
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5235
content:
"and political leaders are drivers for community transformation, whereas \r\nlack of local resources and/or capacities are frequently reported barriers \r\nto change (Funfgeld et al., 2019; Thaler et al., 2019)."


id: 5f306275a43c94034f9d59c80086fc0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12540
content:
"In large infrastructure networks, the lack of a leading and powerful \r\ninstitutional body, with sufficient research resources targeted to \r\nclimate-change risk assessment, may limit adaptive capacity, as for \r\nexample in railways (Rotter et al., 2016)."


id: fa4b3fa4a47db722bb033374b29a7cd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36899
content:
"The European insurance industry has developed tailored products \r\nfor specific climate risks threatening cities, settlements and key \r\ninfrastructures, such as risk-based flood insurance for homeowners \r\nand companies (Section  13.2.3). The European insurance industry \r\nis developing new services (such as risk analysis and catastrophe \r\nmodelling embedding climate change, early warning and post-event \r\nrecovery recommendations), and it has recently started to play a role \r\nas communicator of future risks and as institutional investor with the \r\naim of risk reduction (Jones and Phillips, 2016; Marchal et al., 2019)."


id: 90beac0b3c29b0d69099ab70ae013543
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20312
content:
"Evidence from transport in Europe shows that adaptation actions do not \r\nconsider enough long-term transition paths embedded in mitigation, \r\nwhile mitigation strategies are often not assessed under future \r\nclimate scenarios (Aparicio, 2017). Without rapid decarbonisation of \r\nelectricity supply, greenhouse gas emissions will increase due to the \r\nincreased use of air conditioning installations in cities. This trade-off "


id: 8222c6f3d44d6e1e1986782f610fc29b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17996
content:
"The level and type of collaboration between the public and private \r\nsectors in managing climate risks varies across Europe (Wiering et al., \r\n2017; Alkhani, 2020). For example, in flood management (Section 13.2), "


id: 6a03c0ec8bae480e55c168c078d7fd0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14282
content:
"can be reduced to some extent through use of more efficient cooling \r\ntechnologies (IEA, 2018) and complementary adaptation measures \r\nsuch as large-scale urban greening, building policies and behavioural \r\nchanges in air conditioning use (Viguie et al., 2020; Sharifi, 2021; Viguie \r\net al., 2021). Greenhouse gas emissions from transport may increase \r\ndue to the temporary relocation of city residents to cooler locations \r\nduring heatwaves (Juschten et al., 2019), and from increased energy \r\nuse for snowmaking in European ski resorts (Scott et al., 2019)."


id: 3d7381750d469ec81617683f1d86e597
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7025
content:
"While compound, concurrent and consecutive climate extremes \r\nbecome more frequent, there is limited knowledge on sectoral risks or \r\non cascading risks for through transport, telecommunications, water, \r\nand banking and finance. While heat is well studied, studies on risks for \r\ncities and key infrastructures from hailstorms and lightning are missing."


id: d701732ce2cc3b237e0c368be79104b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31332
content:
"Empirical data on the damage of transport infrastructure (e.g., railways) \r\ncovering different European countries have not been systematically \r\ncollected, and indirect economic effects of interruptions of transport \r\nnetworks have not been well studied (Bubeck et al., 2019). These deficits \r\nresult in uncertainties associated with impacts of climate change on \r\ntransport flows and indirect impacts (e.g., delays, economic losses)."


id: 1d2a94ee1c9505fb00891d2555ceabcc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2030
content:
"A key knowledge gap is the lack of a quantitative European-wide \r\nintegrated assessment of future climate-change risks on water and \r\nenergy, including different socioeconomic futures. Models capable \r\nof representing integrated policies for energy and water are lacking \r\n(Khan et  al., 2016) including quantitative modelling of impacts on \r\nenergy transmission and coastal energy infrastructure (Cronin et al., \r\n2018). These lacks are especially pertinent when combined with the \r\nsmall number of studies considering SSP population projections and \r\nadaptation tipping points. The limited social vulnerability assessments, \r\nmapping and validation (Rufat et al., 2019) contribute further to these \r\nknowledge gaps."


id: 3103d6ab56da64ca99d03a796a4d41f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5137
content:
"There is limited knowledge on interactions created by synchronous \r\nadaptation in ski tourism supply and demand, and models do not yet \r\ninclude individual snowmaking capacity and a higher time resolution \r\n(Steiger et  al., 2019). Furthermore, there is no European-wide \r\nassessment of coastal flooding risks on tourism."


id: b8211ed7e4d01819b1d56ab38813e338
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26498
content:
"Many studies lack consideration of market characteristics (e.g., competitors) \r\nin their risk assessment, which would be improved by location- and sector\u0002specific knowledge on climate risks for firm assets, operations, business, \r\nindustry, finance and insurance needed to inform adaptation actions (de \r\nBruin et al., 2020; Feridun and Gungor, 2020; Monasterolo, 2020)."


id: 2ea19f0882d593ef6e932abe6e643071
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4782
content:
"evidence of higher heat tolerance is also emerging across most \r\nEuropean regions (Todd and Valleron, 2015; Astrom et al., 2016; Follos \r\net  al., 2020). Future projections of mortality rates in Europe under \r\nthe assumption of complete acclimatisation suggest constant or even \r\ndecreasing rates of mortality in spite of global warming (Astrom et al., \r\n2017; Guo et al., 2018; Diaz et al., 2019); however, there are large \r\nuncertainties in the ability to adapt to future heat extremes which \r\nmight fall outside of historical ranges (Vanos et al., 2020)."


id: a01a361f6970bff0ad18c70749499a0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 22725
content:
"Other extreme events already result in major health risks across \r\nEurope. Between 2000 and 2014, for example, floods in Russia \r\nkilled approximately 420 people, mainly older women (Belyakova \r\net al., 2018). Fatalities associated with coastal and riverine flooding \r\n(Section 13.2.2), wildfires (Section 13.3.4) and windstorms could rise \r\nsubstantially by 2100 (Forzieri et al., 2017; Feyen et al., 2020). Lifetime \r\nexposure to extreme weather events for children born in 2020 will be \r\nabout 50% greater at 3.5degC compared with 1.5degC GWL (Thiery et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 4734af2b2c33ee9f12ae7c07589b67a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Among Europeans, 74% live in urban areas (Section 13.6), where the \r\neffect of heatwaves on human health is exacerbated by microclimates \r\ndue to buildings and infrastructure, UHI effects and air pollution (WHO, \r\n2018a; Smid et al., 2019). In large European cities, stabilising climate \r\nwarming at 1.5degC GWL would decrease premature deaths by 15-22% \r\nin summer compared with stabilisation at 2degC GWL (high confidence) \r\n(Mitchell et al., 2018)."


id: 3c3910b05e24a23469f6499d8c67d86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"re 13.22 |  Scenario matrix for multi-model median heat stress risks for the baseline 1986-2005, and different SSP-RCP combinations for the period \r\n0-2060. The SSPs are extended for Europe (EU28+). Heat stress risk is calculated by geometrical aggregation of the hazard (heatwave days), population vulnerability and \r\nsure. Risk values are normalised using a z-score rescaling with a factor-10 shift. Details of the methodology are provided by Rohat et al. (2019)."


id: 6c017a306c45279740d26f59383bbadc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Figure 13.23 |  Assessment of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. The assessment considers the main drivers of hazard (climate-impact drivers, pathogens and vectors), \r\nvulnerability (lack of safeguards and a predisposition to these hazards) and exposure (humans to be affected by these pathogens and vectors), the direction of change in climatic \r\nsuitability (i.e., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, extreme weather events) of observed changes and at 1.5degC and 3degC GWL, and the overall infectious disease risks across \r\nEurope (Chapters 7.3, 7.4; Lindgren et al., 2012; Semenza and Paz, 2021). The assessment does not consider incidence of disease infections through autochthonous transmission \r\n(Table SM13.18)."


id: 9c15048d46d21cb4024c6240e00602b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 22116
content:
"Figure  13.23 summarises the observed and projected changes in \r\nclimatic suitability and assesses the risk for selected climate-sensitive \r\ninfectious diseases in Europe."


id: 596e997fd47eef071814ad23ed382b2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Among the tick-borne diseases, Lyme disease is the most prevalent \r\ndisease in Europe. There has been a temperature-dependent range \r\nexpansion of ticks that is projected to expand further north in Sweden, \r\nNorway and the Russian Arctic (Jaenson et al., 2012; Jore et al., 2014; \r\nTokarevich et al., 2017; Waits et al., 2018), and to higher elevations \r\nin Austria and the Czech Republic (medium confidence) (Daniel et al., \r\n2003; Heinz et al., 2015). A potential habitat expansion of these ticks \r\nof 3.8% across Europe, relative to 1990-2010, is projected for 2degC \r\nGWL (Porretta et al., 2013; Boeckmann and Joyner, 2014). In contrast, \r\nthere are projected habitat contractions for these ticks in SEU due to \r\nunfavourable climatic conditions (Semenza and Suk, 2018)."


id: c3d8e12cf9f822319c0e3ecde4172744
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Water-borne diseases are also associated with changes in climate such \r\nas heavy precipitation events (Semenza, 2020). Warming has been \r\nlinked with elevated incidence of campylobacteriosis outbreaks in \r\nvarious European countries (Yun et al., 2016; Lake et al., 2019). Marine \r\nbacteria, such as Vibrio, thrive under elevated sea surface temperature \r\nand low salinity such as that of the Baltic Sea. Under further warming, \r\nthe number of months with risk of Vibrio transmission increases and \r\nthe seasonal transmission window expands, thereby increasing the risk \r\nto human health in the future (high confidence) (Baker-Austin et al., \r\n2017; Semenza et al., 2017)."


id: 184693eec7566e84224e08ea2c151fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"(Garcia-Leon et al., 2021). Each of these major European heatwaves \r\nled to considerable economic losses in agriculture and construction \r\n(high confidence) and reduced GDP in Europe (except EEU) by 0.3-\r\n0.5% (Garcia-Leon et al., 2021). At 2.5degC GWL and beyond, GDP losses \r\nare projected to increase fivefold compared with 1981-2010, ranging \r\nfrom 2-3.5% in SEU to 0.5-1.5% in WCE, and below 0.5% in NEU and \r\nEEU (Section 13.10.3; Roson and Sartori, 2016; Takakura et al., 2017; \r\nSzewczyk et al., 2018; Dellink et al., 2019; Garcia-Leon et al., 2021)."


id: 5266e4c00850a03767db920f686d28cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 10421
content:
"The main drivers of allergies are predominantly non-climatic (e.g., \r\nincreased urbanisation, adoption of westernised lifestyles, social and \r\ngenetic factors), but climate change strongly contributes to the spread \r\nof some allergenic plants, thus exacerbating existing allergies and \r\ncausing new ones in people across Europe (high confidence) (D'Amato \r\net al., 2016; EASAC, 2019). The prevalence of hay fever (allergic rhinitis), \r\nfor example, is between 4 and 30% among European adults (Pawankar \r\net al., 2013). The invasive common ragweed (Ambrosia asteraceae) is \r\na key species already causing major allergy in late summers (including \r\nhay fever and asthma), particularly in Hungary, Romania and parts of \r\nRussia (Ambelas Skjoth et al., 2019). Across Europe, sensitisation to \r\nragweed is expected to increase from 33 million people in 1986-2005 \r\nto 77 million people at 2degC GWL (Lake et al., 2017)."


id: da507572bfa804bf6ca0afafdc8f1b0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 31871
content:
"Warming will result in an earlier start of the pollen season and \r\nextending it, but this differs across regions, species, traits and flowering \r\nperiods (Ziello et al., 2012; Bock et al., 2014; EASAC, 2019; Revich et al., \r\n2019). For instance, in different parts of WCE and NEU, the start of \r\nbirch-season flowering has been shifted and extended up to 2 weeks \r\nearlier during recent decades (Biedermann et al., 2019). Airborne pollen \r\nconcentrations are projected to increase across Europe (Ziello et  al., \r\n2012). In south-eastern Europe, where pollen already has a substantive \r\nimpact, the pollen count could increase more than 3 to 3.5 times at \r\n2.5degC GWL and can become a more widespread health problem \r\nacross Europe, particularly where it is currently uncommon (medium \r\nagreement, low evidence) (Lake et al., 2017)."


id: ea11e48d3bb7f656ac604c99414c9a2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 34324
content:
"Adaptation to health impacts has generally received less attention \r\ncompared with other climate impacts across Europe (EASAC, 2019). \r\nProgress on health adaptation can be observed. Between 2012 and \r\n2017, at least 20 European countries instituted new governance \r\nmechanisms, such as interdepartmental coordinating bodies for health "


id: 2e13d6a41a362ee36174f1f72e502c3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 4690
content:
"heat prevention plans, a greater level of individual and household \r\nadaptation, and growing awareness about exposure to heat (de'Donato \r\net al., 2015). Long-term national prevention programmes in NEU have \r\nbeen shown to reduce temperature-related suicide (Helama et  al., \r\n2013). The physical fitness of individuals may increase resilience to \r\nextreme heat (Schuster et  al., 2017). Combining multiple types of \r\nadaptation options into a consistent policy portfolio may have an \r\namplifying effect in reducing risks, particularly at higher GWL (medium \r\nconfidence) (Chapter 7; Lesnikowski et al., 2019)."


id: 2bed5a19968b2f3ba8439e96f894501f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 4336
content:
"adaptation and adopted health adaptation plans (Kendrovski and \r\nSchmoll, 2019). Progress on city-level health adaptation is generally \r\nlimited (Araos et al., 2015), with most activities occurring in SEU (high \r\nagreement, medium evidence) (Paz et al., 2016)."


id: b23ec6816f3106670f125be720c9c441
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 25547
content:
"The effectiveness of most options in reducing climate-induced health \r\nrisks is determined by many co-founding factors, including the extent \r\nof the risk, existing sociopolitical structure and culture, and other \r\nadaptation options in place (high agreement, medium evidence). \r\nSuccessful examples include the implementation of heatwave plans \r\n(Schifano et al., 2012; van Loenhout and Guha-Sapir, 2016; de'Donato \r\net  al., 2018), improvements in health services and infrastructure \r\nof homes (Section  13.10.2.1; Vandentorren et  al., 2006). A study of \r\nnine European cities, for example, showed lower numbers of heat\u0002related deaths in SEU and attributed this to the implementation of "


id: 9aeaf618c54e1f925819d1490c402c59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"The solution space for implementing health adaptation options is slowly \r\nexpanding in Europe. Health adaptation can build on, and integrate into, \r\nestablished health system infrastructures, but these differ significantly \r\nacross Europe, as do existing capacities to deal with climate-related \r\nextreme events (Austin et al., 2016; Austin et al., 2018; Orru et al., 2018; \r\nWatts et al., 2018; Austin et al., 2019; Martinez et al., 2019). Despite some "


id: cadba1a74cf21fb5c718703ef8218f0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 29477
content:
"Figure 13.24 |  Effectiveness and feasibility of the main adaptation options to reduce heat-related impacts and health risks in Europe (Section SM13.9, Table \r\nSM 13.19)"


id: d845ad792a15c4839fd0087ae3e494df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 31553
content:
"This section addresses the social consequences of climate change for \r\nEurope by looking into the consequences for poor households and \r\nminority groups, migration and displacement of people, livelihoods \r\nparticularly vulnerable to climate change (indigenous and traditional \r\ncommunities) and cultural heritage."


id: 5953f0ad926c9e6c332a94ae05d8226f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11541
content:
"While climate change is not the main driver of social inequality in \r\nEurope, poor households and marginalised groups are affected more \r\nstrongly by flooding, heat and drought, as well as health risks due to \r\nspreading diseases, than other social groups (medium confidence)."


id: d0d9d4413e2cac57b939f001889fdbbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30394
content:
"Despite a range of options available, there are limits to how much \r\nadaptation can take place, and residual risks remain. These risks \r\nare predominantly discussed in the context of excess mortality and \r\nmorbidity due to heat extremes (Hanna and Tait, 2015; Martinez et al., \r\n2019). Future heatwaves are expected to stretch existing adaptation \r\ninterventions well beyond levels observed in response to the observed \r\nevents of 2003 and 2010 (Section 13.10.2.1; Hanna and Tait, 2015)."


id: 8d7f76012838adf88dacb901c6a69fda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 19789
content:
"Urban poor and ethnic minorities often settle in more vulnerable \r\nsettlement zones, and are therefore impacted more by flooding \r\n(medium confidence) (Medd et al., 2015; Zuparic-Iljic, 2017; Efendic, \r\n2018; Fielding, 2018; Winsemius et  al., 2018; Pudak, 2019; Inuit \r\nCircumpolar Council, 2020). Yet, in some Western European residential \r\nwaterside developments this pattern is reversed by flooding impacting \r\nhigh-income residents more strongly (Walker and Burningham, 2011)."


id: 91e7eacb24fa529235f8cd54fa128bcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 20483
content:
"The health of the poor is disproportionately affected, for example, during \r\nheatwaves in the Mediterranean (Jouzel and Michelot, 2016). Women, \r\nthose with disabilities and the elderly are disproportionately affected by \r\nheat (Section 13.7.1). Floods in the Western Balkans in 2014 resulted \r\nin heavy metal pollution of water and land threatening the health \r\ncondition of the poorer rural population (Filijovic and Dordevic, 2014). \r\nAccess to water and sanitation is less available to poorer households \r\nand marginalised groups in Europe (Ezbakhe et al., 2019; Anthonj et al., \r\n2020); this effect could be intensified by increasing water scarcity in \r\ncertain parts of Europe under future climate change (Section 13.10.3)."


id: 6e613a12a6e80316884bc93c9be8a0c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Literature on the link between public health, climate impacts, vulnerability \r\nand adaptation is skewed across Europe, with most studies focusing \r\non region-specific impacts (e.g., flood injuries in WCE, heatwaves in \r\nSEU). In general, attributing health impacts to climate change remains \r\nchallenging, particularly for mental health and well-being, (mal)nutrition \r\nand food quality and climate-sensitive infectious diseases, where other \r\nsocioeconomic determinants play an important role. The connection \r\nbetween climate change and health risks under different socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment pathways is hardly studied comprehensively for Europe, \r\nwith some exceptions for extreme events; however, these interactions \r\nseem to play an important role in better understanding projected risks \r\nand inform choices on adaptation planning."


id: c7e37f240e824e0d5da07c49bbadcb00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Food self-provisioning is a widespread practice in many parts of \r\nEurope (Aleynikov et al., 2014; Corcoran, 2014; Church et al., 2015; \r\nMustonen and Huusari, 2020), reaching over half of German rural areas \r\n(Vavra et al., 2018). While it strengthens resilience for disadvantaged \r\nhouseholds (Church et al., 2015; Boost and Meier, 2017; Promberger, \r\n2017; Vavra et al., 2018; Ancic et al., 2019; Pungas, 2019) and renews \r\ntheir local knowledge, it can become a risk in regions with projected \r\ncrop yield reductions (high confidence) (Hallegatte et al., 2016; Quiroga \r\nand Suarez, 2016; Myers et  al., 2017b; Inuit Circumpolar Council, \r\n2020), and after extreme weather events (Filijovic and Dordevic, 2014)."


id: 53a5f426e0dca28ddc18b27afb04e08f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Some climate-related health issues are emerging, but evidence is too \r\nlimited for a robust assessment, for example, the links between climate \r\nchange and violence in Europe (Fountoulakis et al., 2016; Mares and \r\nMoffett, 2016; Sanz-Barbero et al., 2018; Koubi, 2019)."


id: 27e55e105451c100e3c1876f2872f010
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"The solution space for public health adaptation in Europe, and \r\nthe effectiveness of levers for interventions, are hardly assessed. \r\nAlthough health adaptations are documented, these are particularly \r\naround mortality and injuries due to extreme events, predominantly \r\nfloods (Section  13.2.1) and heatwaves (Section  13.7.1.1). There \r\nare very few studies assessing the barriers and enablers of health \r\nadaptations, nor systematic assessment of the effectiveness of (the \r\nportfolio of) options. Limited insights into what works, and where, \r\nhamper upscaling these insights across Europe and constrains the \r\nability to evaluate whether investments in health adaptation have \r\nactually reduced risks."


id: cc7de324d63bd25b6b82951bf59c599b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29709
content:
"Energy-poor households often live in thermally inefficient homes and \r\ncannot afford air conditioning to adapt to overheating in summer \r\n(Sanchez-Guevara et  al., 2019; Thomson et  al., 2019). While energy \r\npoverty is much more prevalent in SEU and EEU (Bouzarovski and \r\nPetrova, 2015; Pye et al., 2015; Atsalis et al., 2016; Monge-Barrio and \r\nSanchez-Ostiz Gutierrez, 2018), climate change will also exacerbate \r\nenergy poverty in European regions where heating thus far has been \r\nthe major share of energy costs (medium confidence) (Sanchez\u0002Guevara et al., 2019; Randazzo et al., 2020)."


id: 869b1b7ee23ba3446dfcb9d0084b5416
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Table 13.2 |  Examples of losses and damages to vulnerable livelihoods in Europe, differentiated by category according to non-economic loss and damage (Table SM13.20)"


id: 4e7a1686c0be32af6e2f7c924dfa28c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9776
content:
"Small-scale climate-induced displacement within Europe occurs in the \r\naftermath of flood and drought disasters and over short distances \r\n(Cattaneo et al., 2019). The unequal distribution of future climate risks \r\n(Section  13.1) and adaptive capacity across European regions may \r\nincrease pressure for internal migration (Williges et al., 2017; Forzieri \r\net al., 2018). For instance, projected SLR (Section 13.2.1; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  SLR in Chapter 3) may result in planned relocation of coastal \r\nsettlements and inland migration in the UK, the Netherlands and the \r\nnorthern Mediterranean (Mulligan et al., 2014; Antonioli et al., 2017). \r\nThe number of people living in areas at risk in Europe is projected to \r\nincrease with future SSPs increasing exposure (Merkens et al., 2016; \r\nByers et al., 2018; Harrison et al., 2019)."


