# document

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"(c) 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. \r\nElectronic copies of this report are available from the IPCC website www.ipcc.ch"


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"IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on \r\nClimate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Pean, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. \r\nMatthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekci, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp.\r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009157896."


id: 2e2f87f9289731ae43b25c15a66a4cd9
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"It is unequivocal that human activities have heated our climate. \r\nRecent changes are rapid, intensifying, and unprecedented over \r\ncenturies to thousands of years. With each additional increment of \r\nwarming, these changes will become larger, resulting in long-lasting, \r\nirreversible implications, in particular for sea level rise. United Nations \r\nSecretary-General Antonio Guterres has stated that 'the evidence is \r\nirrefutable' and 'we see the warning signs in every continent and region'."


id: e01b808c82aa6e30f01d6b9c9d5a3309
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"The Working Group I contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report provides a reality \r\ncheck on climate change. We now have a much clearer picture of \r\nthe past, present and possible future climates, and this information \r\nis essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be \r\ndone, and the multiple facets of a changing climate to prepare for, \r\nin every region. Unless deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions \r\noccur in the coming decades, global warming of 1.5degC and 2degC above \r\npre-industrial levels will be exceeded during the 21st century. "


id: 39e2f6c4ec87177473fb48785d751a11
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"This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment \r\nReport covers important new advances in climate science that \r\nprovide an invaluable input into climate negotiations and decision\u0002making, with an emphasis on key conditions that, from a physical \r\nscience basis, are needed to limit global warming and inform risk \r\nassessment and regional adaptation. The report was welcomed at \r\nthe 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework \r\nConvention on Climate Change. It will also inform the 2023 global \r\nstocktake. Unless there are deep reductions in global greenhouse gas \r\nemissions, the goal of limiting warming well below 2degC and close to \r\n1.5degC will be out of reach."


id: 88c116482dcaf8480d3061d0eff646fc
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"The new Working Group I Report structure integrates multiple lines \r\nof scientific evidence within each chapter and provides robust \r\nknowledge relevant for policymaking through the end-to-end \r\nassessment of key topics. This more holistic approach has resulted in \r\na report that provides a better understanding of the climate system, \r\nfor both past and future changes, with a new emphasis on climate \r\ninformation for regions, which is critical for informing adaptation and \r\nrisk management strategies. Today, many decisions remain grounded \r\nin the experience of past climate variability. This report provides \r\na solid basis for taking into account future changes that need to be \r\nconsidered in today's decisions, with increased relevance for climate \r\nservices, to enhance adaptation and resilience to climate change and \r\ncurb greenhouse gas emissions."


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"The science is unequivocal, the changes are unprecedented, and there \r\nis no more time for delay."


id: 57376acd125c80c3fae6d02529bfd9be
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"without being policy prescriptive and to facilitate the integration \r\nof the WGI key findings with the other AR6 Working Group reports."


id: fe94a63a40ccbb6eb7cbb4ea8b38bf3a
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"The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Sixth Assessment \r\nReport (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \r\n(IPCC) focuses on a full and comprehensive assessment of the physical \r\nscience basis of climate change, based on evidence from more than \r\n14,000 scientific publications available by 31 January 2021. "


id: 20f46ccb25c80c57ecd5dc619b7614ce
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"This Report consists of thirteen thematic chapters with their \r\nsupporting supplementary material, ten annexes (including the report \r\nGlossary, which is developed in coordination with Working Groups \r\nII and III where relevant), an integrative Technical Summary, and \r\na Summary for Policymakers. An innovation in this Working Group I \r\nassessment is the online Interactive Atlas (https://interactive-atlas.\r\nipcc.ch), a  novel tool for flexible spatial and temporal analyses of \r\nobserved and projected climate change information, which enhances \r\naccessibility for stakeholders and users to the data assessed in \r\nthe Report."


id: 39546ae712613bd3f4f3c409e803a93d
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"This Report reflects recent climate science advances resulting from \r\nprogress in, and the integration of, multiple lines of evidence, \r\nincluding: in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; \r\nunderstanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical and biological \r\nprocesses and feedbacks; and global and regional climate modelling; \r\nas well as advances in methods of analyses and insights from the \r\ngrowing field of climate services."


id: e77b6b9ad87b2524d73362166fd365a2
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"The AR6 WGI Report builds on the WGI contribution to the IPCC's \r\nFifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, and the AR6 Special Reports1\r\nreleased in 2018 and 2019."


id: c93ce5469536d0a5714304c1cf9924f3
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"The Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary include the line \r\nof sight, indicated in curly brackets, to the chapters and the specific \r\nsections therein where the detailed assessment can be found. In this \r\nway, these summary components of the Report provide a roadmap to \r\nthe contents of the entire report and a synthesis of the major findings \r\nthat is traceable to the underlying literature and assessment."


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"The report considers the current state of the climate in the long-term \r\ncontext, the understanding of human influence, the state of knowledge \r\nabout possible climate futures, climate information relevant for \r\nclimate-related risk assessment and regional adaptation, and the \r\nphysical science basis on limiting human-induced climate change."


id: 104260c095803135f59a8b474ba82944
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"As part of the scoping process and approval of the outline of the IPCC \r\nSixth Assessment Report, the WGI contribution evolved from the \r\nstructure of past WGI assessment reports, reflecting developments \r\nin climate science and the assessment of global and regional climate \r\ninformation that is relevant to inform decision-making. "


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"Some key new topics assessed by WGI include the global response \r\nto new illustrative emissions scenarios, physical climate storylines, \r\nlow-likelihood, high-impact outcomes, and physical climate \r\nconditions that affect society and/or ecosystems (defined as climatic \r\nimpact-drivers). "


id: 7f7bba07fcf79cd27992ad5a3b81ae83
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"The integration of multiple lines of evidence strengthens \r\nthe  understanding of past, current and possible future changes \r\nin the climate system and the distillation of regional climate change \r\ninformation at regional scale. The new structure of the WGI Report is \r\ndesigned to facilitate this integration for end-to-end assessment of \r\nkey topics and to enhance the visibility of knowledge developments \r\nfor global and regional climate change. This includes climate \r\ninformation that is relevant for risk assessment, regional adaptation \r\nand for mitigation. It is also designed to inform decision-making "


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"The second segment of the report is dedicated to climate system \r\ncomponents and processes that play key roles in global and regional \r\nclimate (Chapters 5-9), including carbon and other biogeochemical \r\ncycles, energy, and water; short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and \r\ntheir link to air quality; and changes in the ocean, cryosphere \r\nand sea level. Chapter 5 addresses the assessment of the global \r\nbiogeochemical budgets for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous "


id: 391549660989c3fcdc7b2e8aa67dce7a
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"technical aspects of the assessment, such as descriptions of datasets, \r\nmodels or methodologies supporting chapter analyses."


id: ea5520240817382111ad87a5047bfa11
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"This WGI Assessment Report represents the combined efforts of \r\nhundreds of leading experts in the field of climate science and has \r\nbeen prepared in accordance with principles and procedures of \r\nthe IPCC. "


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"A scoping meeting for the Sixth Assessment Report was held in May \r\n2017, and the outlines for the contributions of the three Working \r\nGroups were approved at the 46th Session of the Panel in September \r\n2017. Governments and IPCC observer organizations nominated \r\nexperts for the author team. The team of 198 Coordinating Lead \r\nAuthors and Lead Authors plus 36 Review Editors selected by the \r\nWGI Bureau was accepted at the 55th Session of the IPCC Bureau \r\nin January 2018. During the report preparation, a few changes have \r\ntaken place to address core expertise gaps and to replace authors \r\nwho were not available anymore. In addition, 615  Contributing \r\nAuthors provided information to the author teams at their request."


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"Drafts prepared by the authors were subject to two rounds of \r\nformal review and revision followed by a final round of government \r\ncomments on the Summary for Policymakers. A total of 78,007 \r\nwritten review comments were submitted by 1891 individual expert \r\nreviewers and 47 governments. The Review Editors for each chapter \r\nmonitored the review process to ensure that all review comments \r\nreceived appropriate consideration. All review comments and \r\nresponses are available online on the report website. "


id: 684217220f2b30f1e8308af66434369e
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"Three in-person Lead Author Meetings took place to enhance progress \r\nand coordination in the assessment process. These were particularly \r\ncritical for the intense cross-chapter coordination implied by the new \r\nreport outline."


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"The Interactive Atlas allows flexible spatial and temporal analyses \r\nof climate variables, extreme indices and climatic impact-drivers, \r\nincluding datasets underpinning assessment findings across report \r\nchapters and syntheses of regional changes."


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"We strived to foster an inclusive environment that achieves a rigorous \r\nand transparent assessment process. These efforts included greater \r\nattention to addressing implicit biases and technical considerations \r\nto enhance the participation in the process and increasing the \r\naccessibility of the assessed information."


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"Specific regional case studies are considered in different chapters, \r\nincluding rainfall changes in the Sahel and Western Africa, \r\nSouth-Western North America, and South-Eastern South America; \r\nclimate information relevant for water resources in small islands, \r\nfor Cape Town drought, for the Indian summer monsoon, for \r\nMediterranean summer warming, and for the Hindu Kush Himalaya \r\nregion; urban climate processes and trends; and the influence of the \r\nArctic on mid-latitude climate."


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"For the first time in the IPCC, WGI recommended the implementation \r\nof FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) data principles \r\nin the assessment to document and curate the data assessed and \r\nincluded in report figures. The motivation was to increase transparency \r\nand accessibility of the assessment, support implementation of the \r\nIPCC Error Protocol, and provide for the long-term curation of \r\nthe assessed digital information. This process was supported by our \r\nclose collaboration with the IPCC Task Group on Data Support for \r\nClimate Change Assessments (TG-Data) established in March 2018."


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"All chapters contain Frequently Asked Questions, which are grounded \r\nin the assessment and written in language that is more accessible \r\nto a broad readership and can serve as a resource for teaching \r\nand outreach. "


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"The COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the World Health \r\nOrganization at the start the Second Order Draft review. Following \r\nan extensive consultation process with IPCC member countries, \r\nauthors and the scientific community, including editors of relevant "


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"science journals, the timeline of the report was extended by four \r\nmonths to balance the delays and challenges faced by authors \r\nand the scientific community with maintaining momentum and \r\ntimeliness in the assessment process. The review process is critical \r\nfor the rigor, objectivity and comprehensiveness of the assessment. \r\nThe adjustments to the timeline facilitated broad participation from \r\nscientists and governments in the review process. Stringent scientific \r\nrigor and quality of the assessment were maintained despite \r\nthe pandemic."


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"The Summary for Policymakers was approved line-by-line during the \r\nfirst-ever virtual IPCC approval session, the 14th Session of IPCC \r\nWorking Group I from 26 July - 06 August 2021, and the underlying \r\nReport was accepted during the 54th Session of the IPCC on the \r\n6th August 2021."


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"We are very grateful for the exceptional rigor and dedication of the \r\nvolunteer Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors throughout \r\nthis process, who delivered the most comprehensive assessment \r\never of our physical understanding of climate change. We thank the \r\nReview Editors for working alongside the author teams to ensure \r\nthat the chapters are fully reflective of the input provided through \r\nthe review process. We express our sincere appreciation to all the \r\ngovernment and expert reviewers, including several group reviews \r\nfrom early-career scientists. We thank the many Contributing Authors \r\nwho provided input and important support to the authors."


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"The fourth Lead Author Meeting, due to be held in June 2020, \r\nwas replaced by extensive virtual activities to address the Second \r\nOrder Draft review comments and topics that cut across multiple \r\nchapters. A final virtual Lead Author Meeting was held in February \r\n2021 to finalize the report. Drafting meetings for the Summary for \r\nPolicymakers also took place through virtual meetings."


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"Addressing the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the \r\nassessment process required innovation to facilitate international \r\nvirtual collaboration, including extra support and training for \r\nparticipants and facilitators, support for participants with internet \r\nconnectivity challenges, additional advance preparation, shorter \r\nand more focused meetings with clear agendas and objectives and \r\nduplicated to account for time zones of participants, high levels \r\nof transparency - including the provision of written summaries \r\nof meetings and decisions, and allotting time for asynchronous \r\ncontributions to the discussion and decision-making process. "


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"A special thanks goes to the Chapter Scientists of this report who \r\nwent above and beyond what was expected of them: Kari Alterskjaer, \r\nLisa Bock, Katherine Dooley, Gregory Garner, Mathias Hauser, Tim \r\nHermans, Lijuan Hua, Carley Iles, Maialen Iturbide, Laurice Preciado \r\nJamero, Martin Jury, Megan Kirchmeier Young, Chaincy Kuo, Hui-Wen \r\nLai, Alice Lebehot, Elizaveta Malinina Rieger, Sebastian Milinkski, \r\nTherese Myslinski, Tamzin Palmer, Browdie Pearson, Stephane Senesi, \r\nJerome Servonnat, Chris Smith, David Smyth, Sabin Thazhe Purayil, \r\nEmilie Vanvyve, Tania Villasenor Jorquera, Hui Wan and Kyung\u0002Sook Yu. Chapter scientists were recruited by and reported directly \r\nto the Coordinating Lead Author(s) and provided technical support \r\nto the chapters, including reference checking and compilation, \r\nfigure drafting, traceability checking, identification of overlaps or \r\ninconsistencies across chapters, and technical editing."


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"Documenting and understanding barriers to participation due to \r\nan increased reliance on online activities and the use of inclusive \r\npractices required priority attention in these novel conditions. We \r\ngained experience in applying methods to facilitate participatory and \r\ninclusive processes in the assessment and recognized the necessity \r\nof fostering these approaches over the course of the assessment \r\nprocess, both during and in-between meetings, to build a stronger \r\ncommunity of practice within this unique international context. This \r\nwill be an important legacy for future assessment cycles."


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"We thank the Vice Chairs of the WGI Bureau for their dedication, \r\nguidance and wisdom throughout the preparation of the Report and \r\ntheir support for cross-Working Group coordination: Edvin Aldrian, \r\nFatima Driouech, Gregory Flato, Jan Fuglestvedt, Muhammad I. Tariq, \r\nCarolina Vera and Noureddine Yassaa."


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"We gratefully acknowledge the support from the host countries \r\nand institutions of the WGI Lead Author Meetings (LAMs): China \r\nMeteorological Administration (CMA), China, for hosting the first \r\nLAM; Environment Canada, Canada, for hosting the second LAM; and \r\nMeteo France, France, for hosting the third LAM. We also thank the \r\nMinisterio de Ciencia, Tecnologia, Conocimiento e Innovacion and \r\nthe Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Chile, for offering to host the \r\nfourth LAM meeting that we were unable to hold in person due to \r\nthe COVID-19 pandemic."


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"The support provided by governments and institutions, as well \r\nas through contributions to the IPCC Trust Fund, is thankfully \r\nacknowledged as it enabled the participation of the author \r\nteams in the preparation of the Report. The efficient operation of \r\nthe  WGI Technical Support Unit (TSU) was made possible by the \r\ngenerous financial support provided by the government of France "


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"Lynn, Judith Ewa, Mxolisi Shongwe, Jennifer Lew Schneider, Jesbin \r\nBaidya, Werani Zabula, Nina Peeva, Melissa Walsh, Joelle Fernandez, \r\nLaura Biagioni and Oksana Ekzarkho for their guidance and support \r\nto implement the many facets of the IPCC process. We were grateful \r\nthat we could work together extensively on communication activities. \r\nWe thank Sue Escott for her tireless work to strengthen how we \r\ncommunicate the outcomes of the assessment. "


id: a698aa00e82ee5122044bd84ab076a95
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"and administrative and information technology support from the \r\nUniversite Paris Saclay (France), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) \r\nand the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement \r\n(LSCE). We thank the Norwegian Environment Agency for supporting \r\nthe preparation of the graphics for the Summary for Policymakers. \r\nWe thank the United Nations Environment Programme Library for \r\nproviding a service for authors to access literature. "


id: 901159772c2be460a587b2b3f81dc7f
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"We would like to acknowledge the support of the SHIFT Collaborative \r\nteam - Stacy Barter and Michelle Colussi - and the generous \r\nsupport of the Canadian government for training and tools on \r\ninclusive practices in a consensus-based decision-making context, \r\nwhich we have been able to use for a more inclusive assessment \r\nprocess, including when we moved to purely online approaches. We \r\nappreciated the presence of Jessica O'Reilly and Mark Vardy, who \r\nhave been with us throughout, working on an ethnographic study of \r\nhow authors undertake the IPCC assessment, and we look forward to \r\nthe insights from their research."


id: 2036c592999dc65b48ca81893467a15c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"The approval of the WGI Summary for Policymakers took place in \r\nan unprecedented context, with travel restrictions caused by the \r\nCOVID-19 pandemic rendering an in-person IPCC Plenary session \r\nimpossible. We thank the support and advice of the IPCC Executive \r\nCommittee and the tireless work of the ad-hoc task group that was \r\nestablished to advise us as Co-Chairs in preparing for the approval \r\nsession. The task group was led by IPCC Vice-Chair Ko Barrett and \r\nincluded WGI Vice-Chairs Fatima Driouech, Greg Flato and Edvin \r\nAldrian; Anna Pirani and Sarah Connors of the WGI TSU; and Ermira \r\nFida of the IPCC Secretariat. The task group prepared guidance for \r\nparticipants on the modalities of the session and a carefully structured \r\nmeeting schedule to implement a virtual approval process."


id: b1cb573421373c7ebc9ce29effd8e9af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"A core outcome of the report has been the development of the WGI \r\nInteractive Atlas produced by the Atlas chapter team. The Atlas is \r\ndedicated to the memory of Gemma Teresa Narisma, who co-led this \r\ninnovative chapter with her extensive experience in regional climate \r\nresearch and outstanding leadership. The development and technical \r\nimplementation have been supported with in-kind contribution \r\nfrom the Spanish government through the Spanish Research \r\nCouncil (CSIC) Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, in partnership with \r\nPredictia Intelligent Data Solutions. Funding from the Spanish \r\nResearch &  Development program is acknowledged (ref. PID2019-\r\n111481RB-I00). We thank the modelling centres and institutions \r\nthat produce and make available the datasets used in this work. The \r\nInteractive Atlas was first made available along with the rest of the \r\nReport on 9 August 2021 and was visited by more than half a million \r\nusers worldwide during the first month."


id: b9d204a00cb5d00fe80bb80046dc5c28
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content:
"The approval took place virtually for the first time and involved more \r\nthan 186 hours of online meetings. We thank all participants for the \r\nremarkable collaborative spirit and rigorous work undertaken during \r\nthe session. IPCC Vice Chairs Ko Barrett, Thelma Krug and Youba \r\nSokona brought their unwavering support to facilitate discussions \r\namongst authors and delegations and provided core support for the \r\nsuccess of the approval process. We are also grateful to the Vice Chairs \r\nof WGI, as well as Mark Howden and Andy Reisinger, Vice Chairs of \r\nWGII and WGIII respectively, and Jim Skea, Co-Chair of WGIII, for \r\ntheir support to facilitate the discussions. The WGI TSU was joined \r\nby members of the WGII and WGIII TSUs, as well as past interns and \r\nchapter scientists to staff this Herculean coordination effort."


id: efb02f9b30253c4e388567f8923d446b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"Our warmest thanks go to the collegial and collaborative support \r\nprovided by Melinda Tignor, Elvira Poloczanska, Katja Mintenbeck, \r\nBard Rama, Almut Niebuhr, Vincent Moller, Sina Loschke, Komila \r\nNabiyeva, Andres Alegria, Stefanie Langsdorf, Andrew Okem, \r\nMarlies Craig, Anka Muhle, Philisiwe Manqele, Stefan Weisfeld, \r\nJussi Savolainen and Mallou from the Working Group II Technical \r\nSupport Unit; Roger Fradera, Raphael Slade, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Minal \r\nPathak, Sigourney Luz, Malek Belkacemi, David McCollum, Renee van \r\nDiemen, Shreya Some, Purvi Vyas, Juliette Malley and Geninha Lisboa \r\nfrom the Working Group III Technical Support Unit; and Noemie \r\nLe Prince-Ringuet from the Synthesis Report Technical Support Unit. "


id: df57867d84bbb4d97a97514c8a026824
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"The WGI TSU has initiated the process to archive the data and \r\ncode from the report, building on the guidance and support from \r\na large group of contributors. We are indebted to the members \r\nof the IPCC Task Group on Data Support for Climate Change \r\nAssessments (TG-Data) for their oversight, expert guidance and \r\nconstant encouragement, including the Co-chairs of the Task Group, \r\nDavid Huard and Sebastian Vicuna, and members representing the \r\nWGI science community, Michio Kawamiya, Silvina Solman, Jose \r\nManuel Guttierez and Nana Ama Browne Klutse. For the preparation \r\nof the figure data and code for archival, we especially thank to our \r\ndedicated contractor, Lina Sitz."


id: c5de32a169e74d98adf06267ce134ca6
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"We are grateful for the close collaboration with authors and Bureau \r\nmembers from Working Group II and III, including as contributing \r\nauthors in many parts of the report. We thank the Co-Chairs Debra \r\nRoberts, Hans-Otto Portner, Jim Skea and Priyadarshi R. Shukla for \r\nthe collegial teamwork across Working Groups that has characterized \r\nthe AR6. We also thank Eduardo Calvo Buendia and Kyoto Tanabe, \r\nCo-Chairs of the Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories, for their \r\nsupport and collaboration. "


id: d19c667e72554e4bb2bd041144cd1be6
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content:
"The IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) has been indispensable \r\nfor this effort. For the archival of figure data, we are indebted to \r\nCharlotte Pascoe, Kate Winfield, and Martin Jukes from the UK \r\nCentre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA). For the archival of \r\nthe climate model data used as input to the report and intermediate \r\nassessed datasets, we gratefully acknowledge Martina Stockhause \r\nof the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). For the transfer \r\nof metadata on archived data/code into the IPCC data catalogue, we \r\nthank MetadataWorks. Finally, we gratefully acknowledge funding "


id: 7c27629ba6f19e6fdfb323abe8f30ca2
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"We thank our past WGI TSU team members: Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, \r\nRoz Pidcock, and Rodrigro Manzanas. We also thank the contributions \r\nof Margot Eyraud, Evea Piedagnel, Mathilde Mousson and Felix \r\nChavelli, who joined the TSU as interns."


id: f90f9fd68824d2ded2d009a40341409e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"support from the Governments of the United Kingdom and Germany, \r\nwithout which data archival at the DDC would not have been possible."


id: 9c14a2180e4b048f8a5bae9a66efd886
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22114
content:
"A special thanks goes to the visual design team of the Summary \r\nfor Policymakers: Tom Johansen and Angela Morelli of Information \r\nDesign Lab and Jordan Harold and Irene Lorenzoni of the Tyndall \r\nCentre for Climate Change Research, as well as to Nigel Hawtin for \r\ngraphical design support of the Report. We would like to thank Alisa \r\nSinger for creating the \"Changing\" artwork inspired by one of the \r\nscientific figures for the front cover of the Report."


id: 68bfdfd4de967039c68ecd914a438a94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14071
content:
"We wish to express our sincere recognition to all those who \r\ncontributed to the WGI assessment given the implications of \r\nundertaking this during the COVID-19 pandemic, all of whom have \r\nworked from home under such challenging conditions. "


id: 2036dc8d3ce676aa125b107f98616121
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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content:
"Finally, on behalf of all the participants to this unprecedented \r\nexperience, we would like to thank colleagues, friends, and \r\nfamilies who have also been part of this intense journey for their \r\nunderstanding and support."


id: 28885aaa9c9dfd1352cd8887811ccfa4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3794
content:
"Our particular appreciation goes to the WGI TSU, whose tireless \r\ndedication, professionalism and enthusiasm underpinned the \r\nproduction of this Report. The Report could not have been prepared \r\nwithout the commitment of members of the TSU, all new to the IPCC, \r\nwho rose to the unprecedented Sixth Assessment Report challenge \r\nand were pivotal in all aspects of the preparation of the Report: Anna \r\nPirani, Clotilde Pean, Sarah Connors, Yang Chen, Robin Matthews, \r\nMelissa Gomis, Sophie Berger, Leah Goldfarb, Rong Yu, Baiquan Zhou, \r\nOzge Yelekci, Nada Caud, Katherine Leitzell, Tom Maycock, Mengtian \r\nHuang, Elisabeth Lonnoy, Tim Waterfield and Diego Cammarano. "


id: 9ab44b207692b5bf057482f7771cb329
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21869
content:
"This report shows that how much climate change we experience in \r\nthe future depends on our decisions now, and what to prepare for. \r\nWe wish that this report is widely used to provide evidence-based \r\nknowledge to inform decision-making, for teaching and training, and \r\nto enhance climate literacy worldwide."


id: 6b15015fc89034e78d1934613639defa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14465
content:
"The Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate \r\nChange 2021: The Physical Science Basis is dedicated to the memory of Sir John Hougthon, who was one of the key figures in the \r\ncreation of the IPCC in 1988, and served as Chair and Co-Chair of Working Group I for the IPCC's first three assessment reports from \r\n1988 to 2002."


id: c4451e0f54ca78261c3916ffe2728ffe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"Sir John's work was a major factor in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC in 2007, shared with former U.S. Vice-President \r\nAl Gore. He contributed to the development of climate science and building international cooperation based upon climate research. \r\nSir John played a key role in ensuring a robust science-policy interface, used in the IPCC process, but his role in international scientific \r\nresearch extended beyond the IPCC, for instance in contributing to the establishment of the World Climate Research Programme, \r\nwhich he chaired from 1982 to 1984."


id: 8bf0f2c438abef768ae5639cc0bf196c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Sir John was a brilliant communicator among scientific colleagues, policymakers and the public at large, explaining the fact and threat \r\nof climate change with clarity and directness."


id: b053c591b03df094781fce95cc4ad2e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I \r\nto the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. \r\nConnors, C. Pean, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. \r\nMaycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekci, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New \r\nYork, NY, USA, pp. 3-32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001."


id: 352acbf5ae54cf411908e558d121f273
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content_type: text
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"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)1 on the physical science basis of climate change. The report builds \r\nupon the 2013 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the 2018-2019 IPCC Special Reports2\r\nof the AR6 cycle and incorporates subsequent new evidence from climate science.3"


id: e54d5c54677bd155525d2adcb1a7479e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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"This SPM provides a high-level summary of the understanding of the current state of the climate, including how it is changing and the \r\nrole of human influence, the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant to regions and sectors, \r\nand limiting human-induced climate change."


id: a44cab283b811863559453694885622d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of \r\nconfidence indicated using the IPCC calibrated language.4"


id: 52632f7989820d32aa2e707ece3ae341
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"The scientific basis for each key finding is found in chapter sections of the main Report and in the integrated synthesis presented \r\nin the Technical Summary (hereafter TS), and is indicated in curly brackets. The AR6 WGI Interactive Atlas facilitates exploration of \r\nthese key synthesis findings, and supporting climate change information, across the WGI reference regions.5"


id: e26ce3645c443d965867708c4f469034
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33132
content:
"Since AR5, improvements in observationally based estimates and information from paleoclimate archives provide a comprehensive \r\nview of each component of the climate system and its changes to date. New climate model simulations, new analyses, and methods \r\ncombining multiple lines of evidence lead to improved understanding of human influence on a wider range of climate variables, \r\nincluding weather and climate extremes. The time periods considered throughout this section depend upon the availability of \r\nobservational products, paleoclimate archives and peer-reviewed studies."


id: bedcd1323abaea6f76b6de5416d1985c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content_type: text
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content:
" {2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 5.2, 5.3, 6.4, 7.3, 8.3, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 9.1} (Figure SPM.1, Figure SPM.2)"


id: 24b2372712b58cd810cc40175c708d00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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content:
"Panel (a) Changes in global surface temperature reconstructed from paleoclimate archives (solid grey line, years 1-2000) and from direct \r\nobservations (solid black line, 1850-2020), both relative to 1850-1900 and decadally averaged. The vertical bar on the left shows the estimated temperature \r\n(very likely range) during the warmest multi-century period in at least the last 100,000 years, which occurred around 6500 years ago during the current interglacial \r\nperiod (Holocene). The Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, is the next most recent candidate for a period of higher temperature. These past warm periods \r\nwere caused by slow (multi-millennial) orbital variations. The grey shading with white diagonal lines shows the very likely ranges for the temperature reconstructions."


id: 3b09a1a80352042c8e27ab7792dd4281
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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content:
"Panel (b) Changes in global surface temperature over the past 170 years (black line) relative to 1850-1900 and annually averaged, compared to \r\nCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations (see Box SPM.1) of the temperature response to both human and natural \r\ndrivers (brown) and to only natural drivers (solar and volcanic activity, green). Solid coloured lines show the multi-model average, and coloured shades show the \r\nvery likely range of simulations. (See Figure SPM.2 for the assessed contributions to warming). "


id: 7bf84dc6960ae077cc8b86749bf44c9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"Panel (a) For hot extremes, the evidence is mostly drawn from changes in metrics based on daily maximum temperatures; regional studies using other indices \r\n(heatwave duration, frequency and intensity) are used in addition. Red hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase \r\nin hot extremes."


id: 814942ac57a029a5361d9de976452ff1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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content:
"Panel (b) For heavy precipitation, the evidence is mostly drawn from changes in indices based on one-day or five-day precipitation amounts using global and \r\nregional studies. Green hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase in heavy precipitation."


id: 844968703cbff172559dc6d7b80817f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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"Panel (c) Agricultural and ecological droughts are assessed based on observed and simulated changes in total column soil moisture, complemented \r\nby evidence on changes in surface soil moisture, water balance (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) and indices driven by precipitation and atmospheric \r\nevaporative demand. Yellow hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase in this type of drought, and green \r\nhexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed decrease in agricultural and ecological drought.\r\nFor all regions, Table TS.5 shows a broader range of observed changes besides the ones shown in this figure. Note that Southern South America (SSA) is the only \r\nregion that does not display observed changes in the metrics shown in this figure, but is affected by observed increases in mean temperature, decreases in frost \r\nand increases in marine heatwaves."


id: fc8e01c90de1afc99fc109280a04331a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"A set of five new illustrative emissions scenarios is considered consistently across this Report to explore the climate response to \r\na broader range of greenhouse gas (GHG), land-use and air pollutant futures than assessed in AR5. This set of scenarios drives \r\nclimate model projections of changes in the climate system. These projections account for solar activity and background forcing \r\nfrom volcanoes. Results over the 21st century are provided for the near term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long term \r\n(2081-2100) relative to 1850-1900, unless otherwise stated."


id: 1d6390f953123c75065c7eb8eb1d08ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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content:
"{1.5, Cross-Chapter Box 2.2, 3.3, 3.8, TS.1.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1} (Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2)"


id: d21183686144b63d2d320b4e8cc18ba4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"Box SPM.1.3: The CMIP6 models considered in this Report have a wider range of climate sensitivity than in CMIP5 models \r\nand the AR6 assessed very likely range, which is based on multiple lines of evidence. These CMIP6 models also show \r\na higher average climate sensitivity than CMIP5 and the AR6 assessed best estimate. The higher CMIP6 climate sensitivity \r\nvalues compared to CMIP5 can be traced to an amplifying cloud feedback that is larger in CMIP6 by about 20%. \r\n{Box 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5, TS.3.2}"


id: 9f38c4dd1ccfc8bbba30000cf47b7204
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22586
content:
"Box SPM.1.4: For the first time in an IPCC report, assessed future changes in global surface temperature, ocean warming \r\nand sea level are constructed by combining multi-model projections with observational constraints based on past simulated \r\nwarming, as well as the AR6 assessment of climate sensitivity. For other quantities, such robust methods do not yet exist \r\nto constrain the projections. Nevertheless, robust projected geographical patterns of many variables can be identified at \r\na given level of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of timing when the global warming \r\nlevel is reached. \r\n{1.6, 4.3, 4.6, Box 4.1, 7.5, 9.2, 9.6, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Section Box TS.1}"


id: 411f7aa593c56f67f832bff887044ae1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7636
content:
"Figure SPM.4 | Future anthropogenic emissions of key drivers of climate change and warming contributions by groups of drivers for \r\nthe five illustrative scenarios used in this report"


id: 8eff44425b1e5596cfdbd5b791bf2d3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20037
content:
"Panel (a) Annual anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions over the 2015-2100 period. Shown are emissions trajectories for carbon dioxide \r\n(CO2) from all sectors (GtCO2/yr) (left graph) and for a subset of three key non-CO2 drivers considered in the scenarios: methane (CH4, MtCH4/yr, top-right \r\ngraph); nitrous oxide (N2O, MtN2O/yr, middle-right graph); and sulphur dioxide (SO2, MtSO2/yr, bottom-right graph, contributing to anthropogenic aerosols \r\nin panel (b)."


id: 5fdde11ac4cef6cb013fad6ed61912a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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content:
"{2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.4, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5} (Figure SPM.1, Figure SPM.4, Figure SPM.8, \r\nTable SPM.1, Box SPM.1)"


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content:
"Table SPM.1 | Changes in global surface temperature, which are assessed based on multiple lines of evidence, for selected 20-year time \r\nperiods and the five illustrative emissions scenarios considered. Temperature differences relative to the average global surface temperature of the \r\nperiod 1850-1900 are reported in degC. This includes the revised assessment of observed historical warming for the AR5 reference period 1986-2005, which \r\nin AR6 is higher by 0.08 [-0.01 to +0.12] degC than in AR5 (see footnote 10). Changes relative to the recent reference period 1995-2014 may be calculated \r\napproximately by subtracting 0.85degC, the best estimate of the observed warming from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014. \r\n{Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 4.3, 4.4, Cross-Section Box TS.1}"


id: ccf315bb7c854a7092374859a79be056
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 29789
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 7.4, 8.2, 8.4, Box 8.2, 9.3, 9.5, Box 9.2, 11.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box \r\n11.1, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11} \r\n(Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6, Figure SPM.8)"


id: 488f7d51f5a97248cff3354979d1fbd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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vector_id: 8791
content:
"{2.3, 4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 7.4, 11.1, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, \r\nAtlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Section Box TS.1, TS.2.6} (Figure SPM.5)"


id: 9e88aaef8fd476c98c0e6f18d489ed0d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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vector_id: 22479
content:
"{8.2, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, TS.2.6} (Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6)"


id: 1520199c8824bb0b68b11680e7a78cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 836
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 7.4, 8.2, 8.4, Box 8.2, 9.3, 9.5, 12.4, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.11, TS.2.5} \r\n(Figure SPM.8)"


id: 152dea18ac8aac9eb4e2c45d8f948bb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 844
content:
"Warming at 1degC affects all continents and \r\nis generally larger over land than over the \r\noceans in both observations and models. \r\nAcross most regions, observed and \r\nsimulated patterns are consistent."


id: 6b818b3289a5cf1801b58065b052e25b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14532
content:
"Precipitation is projected to increase over high latitudes, the equatorial \r\nPacific and parts of the monsoon regions, but decrease over parts of the \r\nsubtropics and in limited areas of the tropics."


id: 20ff88350a7f0754ae6a482a91d7bf43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2627
content:
"Panel (b) Simulated annual mean temperature change (degC), panel (c) precipitation change (%), and panel (d) total column soil moisture change \r\n(standard deviation of interannual variability) at global warming levels of 1.5degC, 2degC and 4degC (20-year mean global surface temperature change relative \r\nto 1850-1900). Simulated changes correspond to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model mean change (median change for soil \r\nmoisture) at the corresponding global warming level, that is, the same method as for the right map in panel (a). "


id: 67a4c763cbb872f986c8e744f41f28b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13899
content:
"{Figure 1.14, 4.6.1, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, TS.1.3.2, Figures TS.3 and TS.5}"


id: 570073a37ba3ff34459b5d38c2e79f2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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vector_id: 11170
content:
"Projected changes are shown at global warming levels of 1degC, 1.5degC, 2degC, and 4degC and are relative to 1850-1900,9 representing a climate without human \r\ninfluence. The figure depicts frequencies and increases in intensity of 10- or 50-year extreme events from the base period (1850-1900) under different global \r\nwarming levels."


id: 2e4fda990c080c8d1c996eb7bce89508
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4724
content:
"Hot temperature extremes are defined as the daily maximum temperatures over land that were exceeded on average once in a decade (10-year event) or once \r\nin 50 years (50-year event) during the 1850-1900 reference period. Extreme precipitation events are defined as the daily precipitation amount over land that "


id: 77bf14f46b47557695174c8994bf04e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16401
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.4, 8.5, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, TS.2.6, TS.4.2, Box TS.6} (Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6)"


id: eef6dcd8c35489a2a98eddf2eb39b9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35070
content:
"Figure SPM.7 | Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions taken up by land and ocean sinks by 2100 under the five illustrative scenarios\r\nThe cumulative anthropogenic (human-caused) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions taken up by the land and ocean sinks under the five illustrative scenarios (SSP1-1.9, \r\nSSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are simulated from 1850 to 2100 by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models in the \r\nconcentration-driven simulations. Land and ocean carbon sinks respond to past, current and future emissions; therefore, cumulative sinks from 1850 to 2100 are \r\npresented here. During the historical period (1850-2019) the observed land and ocean sink took up 1430 GtCO2 (59% of the emissions)."


id: b701bb2d38cd1eaa86c9fc3446937ce4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26323
content:
"Figure SPM.8 | Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this Report\r\nThe projections for each of the five scenarios are shown in colour. Shades represent uncertainty ranges - more detail is provided for each panel below. The black \r\ncurves represent the historical simulations (panels a, b, c) or the observations (panel d). Historical values are included in all graphs to provide context for the \r\nprojected future changes. "


id: dba20287a0ddd25b160cf33be496b78b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32074
content:
"Panel (a) Global surface temperature changes in degC relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining Coupled Model Intercomparison \r\nProject Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate \r\nsensitivity (see Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85degC (the observed global surface \r\ntemperature increase from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0."


id: bb9ca061053e84fabc7100bbe5ccf739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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vector_id: 27075
content:
"Panel (b) September Arctic sea ice area in 106 km2 based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The Arctic is \r\nprojected to be practically ice-free near mid-century under intermediate and high GHG emissions scenarios."


id: f0f51f77427b42412c1d9885c1d19f80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35403
content:
"Panel (e) Global mean sea level change at 2300 in metres relative to 1900. Only SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected at 2300, as simulations that extend \r\nbeyond 2100 for the other scenarios are too few for robust results. The 17th-83rd percentile ranges are shaded. The dashed arrow illustrates the 83rd percentile \r\nof SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice-sheet processes that cannot be ruled out.\r\nPanels (b) and (c) are based on single simulations from each model, and so include a component of internal variability. Panels (a), (d) and (e) are based on long-term \r\naverages, and hence the contributions from internal variability are small."


id: 200d3c6668406b29927590da9c380e33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2486
content:
"Physical climate information addresses how the climate system responds to the interplay between human influence, natural drivers \r\nand internal variability. Knowledge of the climate response and the range of possible outcomes, including low-likelihood, high \r\nimpact outcomes, informs climate services, the assessment of climate-related risks, and adaptation planning. Physical climate \r\ninformation at global, regional and local scales is developed from multiple lines of evidence, including observational products, \r\nclimate model outputs and tailored diagnostics."


id: 11ce40928ee7d44d1197b98498c19649
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 298
content:
"{1.4, 2.2, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 4.4, 4.6, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Box 7.2, 8.3, 8.5, 9.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.6, \r\n11.3, 12.5, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2}"


id: 809396af8ab38d202de960f3b3898ec7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
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vector_id: 17755
content:
"{1.4, 4.4, 8.3, 8.5, 10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.6, Atlas.4, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2, TS.4.2, \r\nBox TS.6, Box TS.13}"


id: d0bc2b0dd661d74f11f5cfcd3bbc87d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30373
content:
"{8.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Box 10.3, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9, Box 11.3, Box 11.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.2, \r\n12.3, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11} \r\n(Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: d40d352b921783b208d910acc19f21ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30878
content:
"{9.3, 9.5, 11.3, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, \r\nAtlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, TS.4.3} (Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: 75b86a6569a9c7051df0135947e436c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16115
content:
"{11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, TS.4.3} (Table SPM.1)"


id: cbc70c42daafec1dd5d1b33f6c3c2a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29600
content:
"{11.7, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.10, TS.4.3.1, \r\nTS.4.3.2, TS.5} (Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: 827c9ae07cea8d6d05457c73bf198a2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18050
content:
"Climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element \r\nof society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, \r\nor a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions. The CIDs are grouped into seven types, which are \r\nsummarized under the icons in the figure. All regions are projected to experience changes in at least 5 CIDs. Almost all \r\n(96%) are projected to experience changes in at least 10 CIDs and half in at least 15 CIDs. For many CID changes, there is \r\nwide geographical variation, and so each region is projected to experience a specific set of CID changes. Each bar in the \r\nchart represents a specific geographical set of changes that can be explored in the WGI Interactive Atlas. "


id: b51670ac36bd9c2d4404217b37555d64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26025
content:
"Changes refer to a 20-30 \r\nyear period centred around \r\n2050 and/or consistent \r\nwith 2degC global warming \r\ncompared to a similar \r\nperiod within 1960-2014 \r\nor 1850-1900.\r\nASSESSED FUTURE CHANGES"


id: 9702e871923f499308a5ed196a6e9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21272
content:
"The height of the lighter shaded 'envelope' behind each bar \r\nrepresents the maximum number of regions for which each \r\nCID is relevant. The envelope is symmetrical about the x-axis \r\nshowing the maximum possible number of relevant regions \r\nfor CID increase (upper part) or decrease (lower part)."


id: 24a0a3358b5c82a035bcf94ebe5d0bdb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3206
content:
"A total of 35 climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) grouped into seven types are shown: heat and cold; wet and dry; wind; snow and ice; coastal; open ocean; and other. \r\nFor each CID, the bar in the graph below displays the number of AR6 WGI reference regions where it is projected to change. The colours represent the direction \r\nof change and the level of confidence in the change: purple indicates an increase while brown indicates a decrease; darker and lighter shades refer to high and \r\nmedium confidence, respectively. Lighter background colours represent the maximum number of regions for which each CID is broadly relevant."


id: 9a8e10e3edf6e6923411a570eb0e02d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21849
content:
"Panel (a) shows the 30 CIDs relevant to the land and coastal regions, while panel (b) shows the five CIDs relevant to the open-ocean regions. Marine heatwaves \r\nand ocean acidity are assessed for coastal ocean regions in panel (a) and for open-ocean regions in panel (b). Changes refer to a 20-30-year period centred around 2050 \r\nand/or consistent with 2degC global warming compared to a similar period within 1960-2014, except for hydrological drought and agricultural and ecological drought, which \r\nis compared to 1850-1900. Definitions of the regions are provided in Sections 12.4 and Atlas.1 and the Interactive Atlas (see https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/).\r\n{11.9, 12.2, 12.4, Atlas.1, Table TS.5, Figures TS.22 and TS.25} (Table SPM.1)"


id: e232c62a6a684223c07fad005ce060f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33083
content:
"{1.4, Cross-Chapter Box 1.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, 8.6, 9.2, Box 9.4, 11.8, Box 11.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 12.1} (Table SPM.1)"


id: e5e0d9c650eaaeb2a3c1bb3ef651ef2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33665
content:
"Since AR5, estimates of remaining carbon budgets have been improved by a new methodology first presented in SR1.5, updated \r\nevidence, and the integration of results from multiple lines of evidence. A comprehensive range of possible future air pollution \r\ncontrols in scenarios is used to consistently assess the effects of various assumptions on projections of climate and air pollution. \r\nA novel development is the ability to ascertain when climate responses to emissions reductions would become discernible above \r\nnatural climate variability, including internal variability and responses to natural drivers."


id: bd982246468a7531ce9ddcea85eeaf27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27397
content:
"{3.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, Box 5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, 6.7, 7.6, 9.6} (Figure SPM.10, Table SPM.2)"


id: b0b3b6bc55a097b525d7322055e6db5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25319
content:
"Table SPM.2 | Estimates of historical carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and remaining carbon budgets. Estimated remaining carbon budgets are \r\ncalculated from the beginning of 2020 and extend until global net zero CO2 emissions are reached. They refer to CO2 emissions, while accounting for the global \r\nwarming effect of non-CO2 emissions. Global warming in this table refers to human-induced global surface temperature increase, which excludes the impact \r\nof natural variability on global temperatures in individual years. \r\n{Table 3.1, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.2, Table 5.1, Table 5.7, Table 5.8, Table TS.3}"


id: 78588677a21c2e3543bd9c1b1a890da2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16500
content:
"b\r\n This likelihood is based on the uncertainty in transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and additional Earth system feedbacks and provides the \r\nprobability that global warming will not exceed the temperature levels provided in the two left columns. Uncertainties related to historical warming (+-550 GtCO2) \r\nand non-CO2 forcing and response (+-220 GtCO2) are partially addressed by the assessed uncertainty in TCRE, but uncertainties in recent emissions since 2015 \r\n(+-20 GtCO2) and the climate response after net zero CO2 emissions are reached (+-420 GtCO2) are separate."


id: 5731aa58d2710362ac754dde592cf4d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11204
content:
"c\r\n Remaining carbon budget estimates consider the warming from non-CO2 drivers as implied by the scenarios assessed in SR1.5. The Working Group III Contribution \r\nto AR6 will assess mitigation of non-CO2 emissions."


id: 3578168330a085165cf07a50d6caf1a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5820
content:
"compensated by CO2 release and uptake respectively, from or to land and ocean carbon pools (very high confidence). \r\nCDR would lower atmospheric CO2 by an amount approximately equal to the increase from an anthropogenic emission of \r\nthe same magnitude (high confidence). The atmospheric CO2 decrease from anthropogenic CO2 removals could be up to \r\n10% less than the atmospheric CO2 increase from an equal amount of CO2 emissions, depending on the total amount of \r\nCDR (medium confidence).\r\n{5.3, 5.6, TS.3.3}"


id: cf7ff614bb06662722724be87ae87427
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30183
content:
"{4.6, 6.6, 6.7, Cross-Chapter Box 6.1, 9.6, 11.2, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5} (Figure \r\nSPM.8, Figure SPM.10)"


id: d38171cd4bc836ce96b4353ed4a952df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30804
content:
"are not sufficient in many polluted regions to achieve air quality guidelines specified by the World Health Organization \r\n(high confidence). Scenarios with targeted reductions of air pollutant emissions lead to more rapid improvements in air \r\nquality within years compared to reductions in GHG emissions only, but from 2040, further improvements are projected \r\nin scenarios that combine efforts to reduce air pollutants as well as GHG emissions, with the magnitude of the benefit \r\nvarying between regions (high confidence).\r\n{6.6, 6.7, Box TS.7}."


id: b70a3a7d02773b039a31f693253fbc84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26324
content:
"Paola A. Arias (Colombia), Nicolas Bellouin (United Kingdom/France), Erika Coppola (Italy), \r\nRichard G. Jones (United Kingdom), Gerhard Krinner (France/Germany, France), Jochem Marotzke \r\n(Germany), Vaishali Naik (United States of America), Matthew D. Palmer (United Kingdom), \r\nGian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Joeri Rogelj (United Kingdom/Belgium), Maisa Rojas (Chile), \r\nJana Sillmann (Norway/Germany), Trude Storelvmo (Norway), Peter W. Thorne (Ireland/United \r\nKingdom), Blair Trewin (Australia)"


id: d3bb2146f3e63c6636866952ce8a0536
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30834
content:
"TS.3 summarizes knowledge and understanding of climate forcings, \r\nfeedbacks and responses. Infographic TS.1 uses a storyline approach \r\nto integrate findings on possible climate futures. Finally, Section TS.4 \r\nprovides a synthesis of climate information at regional scales.3 The \r\nlist of acronyms used in the WGI Report is in Annex VIII."


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content:
"The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) \r\nassesses the physical science basis of climate change. As part of \r\nthat contribution, this Technical Summary (TS) is designed to bridge \r\nbetween the comprehensive assessment of the WGI Chapters \r\nand its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from \r\nthe Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and Atlas and \r\nprovides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of \r\nevidence (e.g., analyses of observations, models, paleoclimate \r\ninformation and understanding of physical, chemical and biological \r\nprocesses and components of the climate system). All the findings \r\nand figures here are supported by and traceable to the underlying \r\nchapters, with relevant chapter sections indicated in curly brackets."


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"Text at the beginning of a section presented in dark blue \r\nwith a blue vertical bar at the left, as shown here, provides \r\na summary of the findings discussed in that section."


id: 20ab511c62e67bdcbeba100716fc692b
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content:
"The AR6 WGI Report promotes best practices in traceability \r\nand reproducibility, including through adoption of the Findable, \r\nAccessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles for scientific \r\ndata. Each chapter has a data table (in its Supplementary Material) \r\ndocumenting the input data and code used to generate its figures \r\nand tables. In addition, a collection of data and code from the report \r\nhas been made freely-available online via long-term archives.4"


id: a2e8f0355dce4f096312ed088ee174d8
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content:
"Throughout this Technical Summary, key assessment findings are \r\nreported using the IPCC calibrated uncertainty language (Chapter 1, \r\nBox 1.1). Two calibrated approaches are used to communicate the \r\ndegree of certainty in key findings, which are based on author teams' \r\nevaluations of underlying scientific understanding:"


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"These FAIR principles are central to the WGI Interactive Atlas5, an \r\nonline tool that complements the WGI Report by providing flexible \r\nspatial and temporal analyses of past, observed and projected \r\nclimate change information. It comprises a regional information \r\ncomponent that supports many of the chapters of the Report and \r\na regional synthesis component that supports the Technical Summary \r\nand Summary for Policymakers."


id: eeb2c4f0c6b4407f3402f22afa0eb9d3
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content:
"Regarding the representation of robustness and uncertainty in maps, \r\nthe method chosen for the AR66 differs from the method used in the \r\nFifth Assessment Report (AR5). This choice is based on new research \r\non the visualization of uncertainty and on user surveys."


id: 4bc3c1044b5de2d45e78c72fe26bd9ca
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content:
"Where there is sufficient scientific confidence, findings can also be \r\nformulated as statements of fact without uncertainty qualifiers. \r\nThroughout IPCC reports, the calibrated language is clearly identified \r\nby being typeset in italics."


id: 6b912c80158bfd1c80ea0220216a39b3
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content:
"The context and progress in climate science (Section TS.1) is followed \r\nby a Cross-Section Box TS.1 on global surface temperature change. \r\nSection TS.2 provides information about past and future large\u0002scale changes in all components of the climate system. Section "


id: 80d1bbf35fde2dd62e26f992ed4818dd
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"This box provides short descriptions of key concepts that are relevant to the AR6 WGI assessment, with a focus on their use in the \r\nTechnical Summary and the Summary for Policymakers. The Glossary (Annex VII) includes more information on these concepts along \r\nwith definitions of many other important terms and concepts used in this Report."


id: bb143d59a6801a177944058c85b0cad0
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"Global warming: Global warming refers to the change of global surface temperature relative to a baseline depending upon the \r\napplication. Specific global warming levels, such as 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC or 4degC, are defined as changes in global surface temperature \r\nrelative to the years 1850-1900 as the baseline (the earliest period of reliable observations with sufficient geographic coverage). They \r\nare used to assess and communicate information about global and regional changes, linking to scenarios and used as a common basis \r\nfor Working Group II (WGII) and Working Group III (WGIII) assessments. (Section TS.1.3, Cross-Section Box TS.1) {1.4.1, 1.6.2, 4.6.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Boxes 1.5, 2.3, 11.1, and 12.1, Atlas Sections 3-11, Glossary}"


id: ee7bc1b1de232e48bf4e3334ef09a6d4
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"Emergence: Emergence refers to the experience or appearance of novel conditions of a particular climate variable in a given region. \r\nThis concept is often expressed as the ratio of the change in a climate variable relative to the amplitude of natural variations of that \r\nvariable (often termed a 'signal-to-noise' ratio, with emergence occurring at a defined threshold of this ratio). Emergence can be \r\nexpressed in terms of a time or a global warming level at which the novel conditions appear and can be estimated using observations \r\nor model simulations. (Sections TS.1.2.3 and TS.4.2) {1.4.2, FAQ 1.2, 7.5.5, 10.3, 10.4, 12.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, Glossary}"


id: 6fb834cf84ccd2386d900e532a295363
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"Cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: The total net amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human \r\nactivities. Given the nearly linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and increases in global surface temperature, \r\ncumulative CO2 emissions are relevant for understanding how past and future CO2 emissions affect global surface temperature. \r\nA related term - remaining carbon budget - is used to describe the total net amount of CO2 that could be released in the future by \r\nhuman activities while keeping global warming to a specific global warming level, such as 1.5degC, taking into account the warming \r\ncontribution from non-CO2 forcers as well. The remaining carbon budget is expressed from a recent specified date, while the total \r\ncarbon budget is expressed starting from the pre-industrial period. (Sections TS.1.3 and TS.3.3) {1.6.3, 5.5, Glossary}"


id: 26b980ac819fa7577329c08d58cc2aed
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"Net zero CO2 emissions: A condition that occurs when the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by human activities equals \r\nthe amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere by human activities over a specified period of time. Net negative CO2 emissions \r\noccur when anthropogenic removals exceed anthropogenic emissions. (Section TS.3.3) {Box 1.4, Glossary}"


id: 2a16483b571ce6e6e3b11d76bdbd62bc
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"Earth's energy imbalance: In a stable climate, the amount of energy that Earth receives from the Sun is approximately in balance \r\nwith the amount of energy that is lost to space in the form of reflected sunlight and thermal radiation. 'Climate drivers', such as an \r\nincrease in greenhouse gases or aerosols, interfere with this balance, causing the system to either gain or lose energy. The strength \r\nof a climate driver is quantified by its effective radiative forcing (ERF), measured in W  m-2. Positive ERF  leads to warming, and \r\nnegative ERF leads to cooling. That warming or cooling in turn can change the energy imbalance through many positive (amplifying) \r\nor negative (dampening) climate feedbacks. (Sections TS.2.2, TS.3.1 and TS.3.2) {2.2.8, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, Box 7.1, Box 7.2, Glossary}"


id: c7e1120d9fddc7ea82ac07c3844bb7ec
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"Attribution: Attribution is the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed change in \r\nclimate variables (e.g., global surface temperature, global mean sea level), or to the occurrence of extreme weather or climate-related \r\nevents. Attributed causal factors include human activities (such as increases in greenhouse gas concentration and aerosols, or land-use \r\nchange) or natural external drivers (solar and volcanic influences), and in some cases internal variability. (Sections TS.1.2.4 and TS.2, \r\nBox TS.10) {Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution in Chapter 1; 3.5; 3.8; 10.4; 11.2.4; Glossary}"


id: 652d80499de886d7907a4f3a69939a8f
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"Committed change, long-term commitment: Changes in the climate system, resulting from past, present and future human \r\nactivities, which will continue long into the future (centuries to millennia) even with strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. \r\nSome aspects of the climate system, including the terrestrial biosphere, the deep ocean and the cryosphere, respond much more slowly \r\nthan surface temperatures to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. As a result, there are already substantial committed changes \r\nassociated with past greenhouse gas emissions. For example, global mean sea level will continue to rise for thousands of years, even \r\nif future CO2 emissions are reduced to net zero and global warming halted, as excess energy due to past emissions continues to \r\npropagate into the deep ocean and as glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt. (Section TS.2.1, Box TS.4, Box TS.9) {1.2.1, 1.3, Box 1.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


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"Distillation: The process of synthesizing information about climate change from multiple lines of evidence obtained from a variety \r\nof sources, taking into account user context and values. It leads to an increase in the usability, usefulness and relevance of climate \r\ninformation, enhances stakeholder trust, and expands the foundation of evidence used in climate services. It is particularly relevant in \r\nthe context of co-producing regional-scale climate information to support decision-making. (Section TS.4.1, Box TS.11) {10.1, 10.5, 12.6}"


id: 248dccc5ff51f5ec2100faba0e22f830
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"(Climate change) risk: The concept of risk is a key aspect of how the IPCC assesses and communicates to decision-makers about the \r\npotential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognizing the diversity of values and objectives associated with \r\nsuch systems. In the context of climate change, risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as human responses to \r\nclimate change. WGI contributes to the common IPCC risk framing through the assessment of relevant climate information, including \r\nclimatic impact-drivers and low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes. (Sections TS.1.4 and TS.4.1, Box TS.4) {Cross-Chapter Boxes 1.3 and \r\n12.1, Glossary}"


id: 3354d5096e9b0e1abf48e8a7060b273b
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"Climatic impact-drivers: Physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that can be directly connected with \r\nhaving impacts on human or ecological systems are described as 'climatic impact-drivers' (CIDs) without anticipating whether their \r\nimpacts are detrimental (i.e., as for hazards in the context of climate change risks) or provide potential opportunities. A range of indices \r\nmay capture the sector- or application-relevant characteristics of a climatic impact-driver and can reflect exceedances of identified \r\ntolerance thresholds. (Sections TS.1.4 and TS.4.3) {12.1-12.3, FAQ 12.1, Glossary}"


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"Storylines: The term storyline is used both in connection to scenarios (related to a future trajectory of emissions or socio-economic \r\ndevelopments) or to describe plausible trajectories of weather and climate conditions or events, especially those related to high levels \r\nof risk. Physical climate storylines are introduced in AR6 to explore uncertainties in climate change and natural climate variability, to \r\ndevelop and communicate integrated and context-relevant regional climate information, and to address issues with deep uncertainty7, \r\nincluding low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes. (Section TS.1.4, Box TS.3, Infographic TS.1) {1.4.4, Box 10.2, Glossary}"


id: 77baaf249b45c8a9e0f92a6ec545019e
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"Low-likelihood, high impact outcomes: Outcomes/events whose probability of occurrence is low or not well known (as in the context \r\nof deep uncertainty) but whose potential impacts on society and ecosystems could be high. To better inform risk assessment and \r\ndecision-making, such low-likelihood outcomes are considered if they are associated with very large consequences and may therefore \r\nconstitute material risks, even though those consequences do not necessarily represent the most likely outcome. (Section TS.1.4, \r\nBox TS.3, Figure TS.6) {1.4.4, 4.8, Cross Chapter Box 1.3, Glossary}"


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"As part of the AR6 cycle, the IPCC produced three Special Reports \r\nin 2018 and 2019: the Special Report on Global Warming of \r\n1.5degC (SR1.5), the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in \r\na  Changing Climate (SROCC), and the Special Report on Climate \r\nChange and Land (SRCCL)."


id: c1605328df355dd336771b8ac9ef7d84
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"The AR6 WGI Report provides a full and comprehensive assessment \r\nof the physical science basis of climate change that builds on the \r\nprevious assessments and these Special Reports and considers new \r\ninformation and knowledge from the recent scientific literature8, \r\nincluding longer observational datasets and new scenarios and \r\nmodel results."


id: 8329806643ac311228e1d7fc4757b1f
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"The structure of the AR6 WGI Report is designed to enhance the \r\nvisibility of knowledge developments and to facilitate the integration \r\nof multiple lines of evidence, thereby improving confidence in findings. "


id: 464b012b6c6d5da00ae4fe5287c2e84a
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"Interactive Atlas allows users to interact in a flexible manner through \r\nmaps, time series and summary statistics with climate information for \r\na set of updated WGI reference regions. The Report also includes 34 \r\nFrequently Asked Questions and answers for the general public (https://\r\nwww.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/faqs)."


id: 16238efd5e255e0c4471c4adf0466902
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"Together, this Technical Summary and the underlying chapters aim at \r\nproviding a comprehensive picture of knowledge progress since the \r\nWGI contribution to AR5. Multiple lines of scientific evidence confirm \r\nthat the climate is changing due to human influence. Important \r\nadvances in the ability to understand past, present and possible \r\nfuture changes should result in better-informed decision-making."


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content:
"Some of the new results and main updates to key findings in this \r\nReport compared to AR5, SR1.5, SRCCL, and SROCC are summarized \r\nbelow. Relevant Technical Summary sections with further details are \r\nshown in parentheses after each bullet point."


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"also accounting for aerosol-cloud interactions. The best estimates \r\nof ERF attributed to sulphur dioxide (SO2) and CH4 emissions are \r\nsubstantially greater than in AR5, while that of black carbon is \r\nsubstantially reduced. The magnitude of uncertainty in the ERF \r\ndue to black carbon emissions has also been reduced relative to \r\nAR5. (Section TS.3.1)\r\n* "


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"This section introduces the assessment of the physical science basis of \r\nclimate change in the AR6 and presents the climate context in which \r\nthis assessment takes place, recent progress in climate science and \r\nthe relevance of global and regional climate information for impact \r\nand risk assessments. The future emissions scenarios and global \r\nwarming levels, used to integrate assessments across this Report, \r\nare introduced and their applications for future climate projections \r\nare  briefly addressed. Paleoclimate science provides a long-term \r\ncontext for observed climate change of the past 150 years and the \r\nprojected changes in the 21st century and beyond (Box TS.2). The \r\nassessment of past, current and future global surface temperature \r\nchanges relative to the standard baselines and reference periods13\r\nused throughout this Report is summarized in Cross-Section Box TS.1."


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"Earth's climate system has evolved over many millions of years, and \r\nevidence from natural archives provides a long-term perspective on \r\nobserved changes and projected changes over the coming centuries. \r\nThese reconstructions of past climate also show that atmospheric \r\nCO2 concentrations and global surface temperature are strongly \r\ncoupled (Figure TS.1), based on evidence from a variety of proxy \r\nrecords over multiple time scales (Box TS.2, Section TS.2). Levels of \r\nglobal warming (see Core Concepts Box) that have not been seen \r\nin millions of years could be reached by 2300, depending on the \r\nemissions pathway that is followed (Section TS.1.3). For example, \r\nthere is medium confidence that, by 2300, an intermediate scenario14\r\nused in this Report leads to global surface temperatures of [2.3degC \r\nto 4.6degC] higher than 1850-1900, similar to the mid-Pliocene Warm "


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"been studied systematically since the early 20th century. Other \r\nmajor anthropogenic drivers, such as atmospheric aerosols (fine \r\nsolid particles or liquid droplets), land-use change and non-CO2\r\ngreenhouse gases, were identified by the 1970s. Since systematic \r\nscientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human \r\nactivities on the warming of the climate system has evolved from \r\ntheory to established fact (see also Section TS.2). The evidence for \r\nhuman influence on recent climate change strengthened from the \r\nIPCC First Assessment Report in 1990 to the IPCC Fifth Assessment \r\nReport in 2013/14, and is now even stronger in this assessment \r\n(Sections TS.1.2.4 and TS.2). Changes across a greater number of \r\nclimate system components, including changes in regional climate \r\nand extremes can now be attributed to human influence (see \r\nSections TS.2 and TS.4). {1.3.1-1.3.5, 3.1, 11.2, 11.9}"


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"Period [2.5degC to 4degC], about 3.2 million years ago, whereas the high \r\nCO2 emissions scenario SSP5-8.5 leads to temperatures of [6.6degC \r\nto 14.1degC] by 2300, which overlaps with the Early Eocene Climate \r\nOptimum [10degC to 18degC], about 50 million years ago. {Cross-Chapter \r\nBoxes 2.1 and 2.4, 2.3.1, 4.3.1.1, 4.7.1.2, 7.4.4.1}"


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"Understanding of the climate system's fundamental elements is \r\nrobust and well established. Scientists in the 19th century identified \r\nthe major natural factors influencing the climate system. They \r\nalso hypothesized the potential for anthropogenic climate change \r\ndue to CO2 emitted by combustion of fossil fuels (petroleum, \r\ncoal, natural gas). The principal natural drivers of climate change, \r\nincluding changes in incoming solar radiation, volcanic activity, \r\norbital cycles and changes in global biogeochemical cycles, have "


id: c7db8b5a5204c7fc1bcd4c10ccf4efb6
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"Paleoclimate reference periods. Over the long evolution of Earth's climate, several periods have received extensive research \r\nattention as examples of distinct climate states and rapid climate transitions (Box TS.2, Figure 1). These paleoclimate reference periods \r\nrepresent the present geological era (Cenozoic; past 65 million years) and are used across chapters to help structure the assessment \r\nof climate changes prior to industrialization. Cross-Chapter Box 2.1 describes the reference periods, along with a brief account of their \r\nclimate forcings, and lists where each is discussed in other chapters. Cross-Chapter Box 2.4 summarizes information on one of the \r\nreference periods, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. The Interactive Atlas includes model output from the World Climate Research \r\nProgramme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for four of the paleoclimate reference periods."


id: d6cbd8a84dd084f69de2de31b1daa060
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"Box TS.2, Figure 1 | Paleoclimate and recent reference periods, with selected key indicators. The intent of this figure is to list the paleoclimate reference \r\nperiods used in this Report, to summarize three key global climate indicators, and compare CO2 with global temperature over multiple periods. (a) Three large-scale \r\nclimate indicators (atmospheric CO2, global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900, and global mean sea level relative to 1900), based on assessments in \r\nChapter 2, with confidence levels ranging from low to very high. (b) Comparison between global surface temperature (relative to 1850-1900) and atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentration (shown on a log scale) for multiple reference periods (mid-points with 5-95% ranges). {2.2.3, 2.3.1.1, 2.3.3.3, Figure 2.34}"


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"Paleoclimate models and reconstructions. Climate models that target paleoclimate reference periods have been featured by \r\nthe IPCC since the First Assessment Report. Under the framework of CMIP6-PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project), \r\nnew protocols for model intercomparisons have been developed for multiple paleoclimate reference periods. These modelling efforts \r\nhave led to improved understanding of the climate response to different external forcings, including changes in Earth's orbital and \r\nplate movements, solar irradiance, volcanism, ice-sheet size and atmospheric greenhouse gases. Likewise, quantitative reconstructions \r\nof climate variables from proxy records that are compared with paleoclimate simulations have improved as the number of study sites \r\nand variety of proxy types have expanded, and as records have been compiled into new regional and global datasets. {1.3.2, 1.5.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Boxes 2.1 and 2.4}"


id: 4f775af7bdbd1e61065aff7e8704deda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9935
content:
"Global surface temperature. Since AR5, updated climate forcings, improved models, new understanding of the strengths \r\nand weaknesses of a growing array of proxy records, better chronologies and more robust proxy data products have led to better \r\nagreement between models and reconstructions. For global surface temperature, the mid-point of the AR6-assessed range and the \r\nmedian of the model-simulated temperatures differ by an average of 0.5degC across five reference periods; they overlap within their "


id: 478f1709cbf138291fac91c0c43f121c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8646
content:
"90% ranges in four of five cases, which together span from about 6 [5 to 7]degC colder during the Last Glacial Maximum to about 14 [10 \r\nto 18] degC warmer during the Early Eocene, relative to 1850-1900 (Box TS.2, Figure 2a). Changes in temperature by latitude in response \r\nto multiple forcings show that polar amplification (stronger warming at high latitudes than the global average) is a prominent feature \r\nof the climate system across multiple climate states, and the ability of models to simulate this polar amplification in past warm \r\nclimates has improved since AR5 (high confidence). Over the past millennium, and especially since about 1300 CE, simulated global \r\nsurface temperature anomalies are well within the uncertainty of reconstructions (medium confidence), except for some short periods \r\nimmediately following large volcanic eruptions, for which different forcing datasets disagree (Box TS.2, Figure 2b). {2.3.1.1, 3.3.3.1, \r\n3.8.2.1, 7.4.4.1.2}"


id: 7e20cd7cb7a33670bbab5c86a0381267
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17411
content:
"Equilibrium climate sensitivity. Paleoclimate data provide evidence to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS15) (Section \r\nTS.3.2.1). In AR6, refinements in paleo data for paleoclimate reference periods indicate that ECS is very likely greater than 1.5degC and \r\nlikely less than 4.5degC, which is largely consistent with other lines of evidence and helps narrow the uncertainty range of the overall \r\nassessment of ECS. Some of the CMIP6 climate models that have either high (>5degC) or low (<2degC) ECS also simulate past global \r\nsurface temperature changes outside the range of proxy-based reconstructions for the coldest and warmest reference periods. Since \r\nAR5, independent lines of evidence, including proxy records from past warm periods and glacial-interglacial cycles, indicate that \r\nsensitivity to forcing increases as temperature increases (Section TS.3.2.2). {7.4.3.2, 7.5.3, 7.5.6, Table 7.11}"


id: 85579a692382ffe91245e7034955ea0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18507
content:
"Water cycle. New hydroclimate reconstructions and model-data comparisons have improved the understanding of the causes \r\nand effects of long-term changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, including monsoon variability and modes of variability \r\n(Box TS.13, Section TS.4.2). Climate models are able to reproduce decadal drought variability on large regional scales, including the \r\nseverity, persistence and spatial extent of past megadroughts known from proxy records (medium confidence). Some long-standing \r\ndiscrepancies remain, however, such as the magnitude of African monsoon precipitation during the early Holocene (the past 11,700 \r\nyears), suggesting continuing knowledge gaps. Paleoclimate evidence shows that, in relatively high CO2 climates such as the Pliocene, \r\nWalker circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean weakens, supporting the high confidence model projections of weakened Walker \r\ncells by the end of the 21st century. {3.3.2, 8.3.1.6, 8.4.1.6, 8.5.2.1, 9.2}"


id: c73c56611109952eafed02df1e64563c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28937
content:
"Carbon cycle. Past climate states were associated with substantial differences in the inventories of the various carbon reservoirs, \r\nincluding the atmosphere (Section TS.2.2). Since AR5, the quantification of carbon stocks has improved due to the development of \r\nnovel sedimentary proxies and stable-isotope analyses of air trapped in polar ice. Terrestrial carbon storage decreased markedly \r\nduring the Last Glacial Maximum by 300-600 PgC, possibly by 850 PgC when accounting for interactions with the lithosphere and \r\nocean sediments, a larger reduction than previously estimated, owing to a colder and drier climate. At the same time, the storage of \r\nremineralized carbon in the ocean interior increased by as much as 750-950 PgC, sufficient to balance the removal of carbon from the \r\natmosphere (200 PgC) and terrestrial biosphere reservoirs combined (high confidence). {5.1.2.2}"


id: e7b509bb6bea749d50276262105808c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33952
content:
"Observational capabilities have continued to improve and \r\nexpand overall since AR5, enabling improved consistency \r\nbetween independent estimates of climate drivers, the \r\ncombined climate feedbacks, and the observed energy \r\nand sea level increase. Satellite climate records and \r\nimproved reanalyses are used as an additional line of \r\nevidence for assessing changes at the global and regional \r\nscales. However, there have also been reductions in some \r\nobservational data coverage or continuity and limited \r\naccess to data resulting from data policy issues. Natural \r\narchives of past climate, such as tropical glaciers, have also \r\nbeen subject to losses (in part due to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange). {1.5.1, 1.5.2, 10.2.2}"


id: 834c0b93aa27c36ce372f5df36a6b9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18179
content:
"New paleoclimate reconstructions from natural archives have enabled \r\nmore robust reconstructions of the spatial and temporal patterns of \r\npast climate changes over multiple time scales (Box TS.2). However, \r\npaleoclimate archives, such as tropical glaciers and modern natural \r\narchives used for calibration (e.g., corals and trees), are rapidly \r\ndisappearing owing to a host of pressures, including increasing "


id: 382f9f61aec3aaeca8001d66abefd9c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6211
content:
"Earth system observations are an essential driver of progress in our \r\nunderstanding of climate change. Overall, capabilities to observe \r\nthe physical climate system have continued to improve and expand.\r\nImprovements are particularly evident in ocean observing networks \r\nand remote-sensing systems. Records from several recently instigated "


id: a831454419e290be2a2ff0c0b072559d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23980
content:
"Section Box TS.1). Increasing horizontal resolution in global \r\nclimate models improves the representation of small-scale \r\nfeatures and the statistics of daily precipitation (high \r\nconfidence). Earth system models, which include additional \r\nbiogeochemical feedbacks, often perform as well as their \r\nlower-complexity global climate model counterparts, which \r\ndo not account for these additional feedbacks (medium \r\nconfidence). {1.3.6, 1.5.3, 3.1, 3.5.1, 3.8.2, 4.3.1, 4.3.4, 7.5, \r\n8.5.1, 9.6.3.1}"


id: 7ad190a98856cebaf1c071eca80a0c0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 16914
content:
"temperatures (high confidence). Substantial quantities of past \r\ninstrumental observations of weather and other climate variables, \r\nover both land and ocean, which could fill gaps in existing datasets, \r\nremain un-digitized or inaccessible. These include measurements of \r\ntemperature (air and sea surface), rainfall, surface pressure, wind \r\nstrength and direction, sunshine amount and many other variables \r\ndating back into the 19th century. {1.5.1}"


id: c2dc733a1e4db79af33f5d25834615a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28237
content:
"Projections of the increase in global surface temperature and the \r\npattern of warming from previous IPCC Assessment Reports and other \r\nstudies are broadly consistent with subsequent observations (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement), especially when accounting for the \r\ndifference in radiative forcing scenarios used for making projections \r\nand the radiative forcings that actually occurred (Figure TS.3). The \r\nAR5 and SROCC projections of GMSL for the 2007-2018 period have \r\nbeen shown to be consistent with observed trends in GMSL and \r\nregional weighted mean tide gauges. {1.3.6, 9.6.3.1}"


id: 7d82149e05eaddcd0671d1adeb6c0857
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17317
content:
"For most large-scale indicators of climate change, the simulated \r\nrecent mean climate from CMIP6 models underpinning this \r\nassessment have improved compared to the CMIP5 models used in \r\nAR5 (high confidence). This is evident from the performance of 18 \r\nsimulated atmospheric and land large-scale indicators of climate \r\nchange between the three generations of models (CMIP3, CMIP5, \r\nand CMIP6) when benchmarked against reanalysis and observational \r\ndata (Figure TS.2, Panel c). Earth system models, characterized by \r\nadditional biogeochemical feedbacks, often perform at least as well \r\nas related, more constrained, lower-complexity models lacking these \r\nfeedbacks (medium confidence). {3.8.2, 10.3.3.3}"


id: 33e69aadf77fb50fe9f2e9fc06a97f08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 5580
content:
"The CMIP6 historical simulations assessed in this report \r\nhave an ensemble mean global surface temperature \r\nchange within 0.2degC of the observations over most of the \r\nhistorical period, and observed warming is within the very \r\nlikely range of the CMIP6 ensemble. However, some CMIP6 \r\nmodels simulate a warming that is either above or below \r\nthe assessed very likely range of observed warming. The \r\ninformation about how well models simulate past warming, \r\nas well as other insights from observations and theory, are \r\nused to assess projections of global warming (see Cross\u0002"


id: d8399974bcf2e387bd28de3853833fba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31545
content:
"The CMIP6 multi-model mean global surface temperature change \r\nfrom 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is close to the best estimate of \r\nthe observed warming. However, some CMIP6 models simulate \r\na warming that is below or above the assessed very likely range. The \r\nCMIP6 models also reproduce surface temperature variations over \r\nthe past millennium, including the cooling that follows periods of \r\nintense volcanism (medium confidence). For upper air temperature, \r\nan overestimation of the upper tropical troposphere warming by "


id: 6f60a677d9649474252f9af70448ab46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15152
content:
"about 0.1degC per decade between 1979 and 2014 persists in most \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models (medium confidence), whereas the \r\ndifferences between simulated and improved satellite-derived \r\nestimates of change in global mean temperature through the depth \r\nof the stratosphere have decreased. {3.3.1}"


id: 1394bda0fd349ffe48575ce4880ca970
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 588
content:
"evolution of the satellite-observed Arctic sea ice loss (high confidence). \r\nThe ability to model ice-sheet processes has improved substantially \r\nsince AR5. As a consequence, there is medium confidence in the \r\nrepresentation of key processes related to surface-mass balance and \r\nretreat of the grounding-line (the junction between a grounded ice \r\nsheet and an ice shelf, where the ice starts to float) in the absence \r\nof instabilities. However, there remains low confidence in simulations \r\nof ice-sheet instabilities, ice-shelf disintegration and basal melting \r\nowing to their high sensitivity to both uncertain oceanic forcing and \r\nuncertain boundary conditions and parameters. {1.5.3, 2.3.2, 3.4.1, \r\n3.4.2, 3.8.2, 9.3.1, 9.3.2, 9.4.1, 9.4.2}"


id: a22bf9b7237305a40867271ec0cc2293
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23083
content:
"CMIP6 models still have deficiencies in simulating precipitation \r\npatterns, particularly in the tropical ocean. Increasing horizontal \r\nresolution in global climate models improves the representation of \r\nsmall-scale features and the statistics of daily precipitation (high \r\nconfidence). There is high confidence that high-resolution global, \r\nregional and hydrological models provide a better representation of \r\nland surfaces, including topography, vegetation and land-use change, \r\nwhich can improve the accuracy of simulations of regional changes in \r\nthe terrestrial water cycle. {3.3.2, 8.5.1, 10.3.3, 11.2.3}"


id: 3fcf98ebff222cb881443dd14b52d029
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7424
content:
"Earth system models (ESMs) simulate globally averaged land \r\ncarbon sinks within the range of observation-based estimates \r\n(high confidence), but global-scale agreement masks large regional \r\ndisagreements. There is also high confidence that the ESMs simulate \r\nthe weakening of the global net flux of CO2 into the ocean during \r\nthe 1990s, as well as the strengthening of the flux from 2000. {3.6}"


id: 2c833b0b494d199945a3ae488dc521dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4433
content:
"There is high confidence that climate models can reproduce the recent \r\nobserved mean state and overall warming of temperature extremes \r\nglobally and in most regions, although the magnitude of the trends \r\nmay differ. There is high confidence in the ability of models to capture \r\nthe large-scale spatial distribution of precipitation extremes over land. \r\nThe overall performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the intensity \r\nand frequency of extreme precipitation is similar to that of CMIP5 \r\nmodels (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 3.2, 11.3.3, 11.4.3}"


id: 3359828d72dfe9bc14314cf00885e774
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5497
content:
"The structure and magnitude of multi-model mean ocean temperature \r\nbiases have not changed substantially between CMIP5 and CMIP6 \r\n(medium confidence). Since AR5, there is improved consistency \r\nbetween recent observed estimates and model simulations of changes \r\nin upper (<700 m) ocean heat content. The mean zonal and overturning \r\ncirculations of the Southern Ocean and the mean overturning \r\ncirculation of the North Atlantic (AMOC) are broadly reproduced by \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models. {3.5.1, 3.5.4, 9.2.3, 9.3.2, 9.4.2}"


id: 74f5e32327f13eb88b43c6666ff0016c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15998
content:
"Observed changes in climate are unequivocal at the global \r\nscale and are increasingly apparent on regional and local \r\nspatial scales. Both the rate of long-term change and \r\nthe amplitude of year-to-year variations differ between \r\nregions and across climate variables, thus influencing when \r\nchanges emerge or become apparent compared to natural \r\nvariations (see Emergence in Core Concepts Box). The signal \r\nof temperature change has emerged more clearly in tropical \r\nregions, where year-to-year variations tend to be small over \r\nland, than in regions with greater warming but larger year\u0002to-year variations (high confidence) (Figure TS.3). Long\u0002term changes in other variables have emerged in many \r\nregions, such as for some weather and climate extremes \r\nand Arctic sea ice area. {1.4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 9.3.1, \r\n11.3.2, 12.5.2}"


id: 5bbb4d48f1ff4b209b0b3e0a8720d548
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content:
"occurred, and there is medium confidence that many of these changes \r\nare attributable to human activities. Several impact-relevant changes \r\nhave not yet emerged from natural variability but will emerge sooner \r\nor later in this century depending on the emissions scenario (high \r\nconfidence). Ocean acidification and deoxygenation have already \r\nemerged over most of the global open ocean, as has a reduction in \r\nArctic sea ice (high confidence). {9.3.1, 9.6.4, 11.2, 11.3, 12.4, 12.5, \r\nAtlas.3-Atlas.11} "


id: e584746ee3a877c26d8cc336f474d2ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33618
content:
"of internal variability and forced change in the climate system. \r\nSimulations and understanding of modes of climate variability, \r\nincluding teleconnections, have improved since AR5 (medium \r\nconfidence), and larger ensembles allow a better quantification of \r\nuncertainty in projections due to internal climate variability. {1.4.2, \r\n1.5.3, 1.5.4, 4.2, 4.4.1, Box 4.1, 8.5.2, 10.3.4, 10.4}"


id: a1104d2ebaec7f5dcbdaf67802a3d91d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22888
content:
"Changes in regional climate can be detected even though natural \r\nclimate variations can temporarily increase or obscure anthropogenic \r\nclimate change on decadal time scales. While anthropogenic forcing \r\nhas contributed to multi-decadal mean precipitation changes in \r\nseveral regions, internal variability can delay emergence of the \r\nanthropogenic signal in long-term precipitation changes in many \r\nland regions (high confidence). {10.4}"


id: 6a3aed32ab4086c146c9830ac69942ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14313
content:
"The evidence for human influence on recent climate change \r\nhas strengthened progressively from the IPCC Second \r\nAssessment Report to AR5 and is even stronger in this \r\nassessment, including for regional scales and for extremes. \r\nHuman influence in the IPCC context refers to the human \r\nactivities that lead to or contribute to a climate response, \r\nsuch as the human-induced emissions of greenhouse \r\ngases that subsequently alter the atmosphere's radiative "


id: bb81f771adf8ba5e99ff0ff48906ecd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27060
content:
"Mean temperatures and heat extremes have emerged above natural \r\nvariability in almost all land regions with high confidence. Changes \r\nin temperature-related variables, such as regional temperatures, \r\ngrowing season length, extreme heat and frost, have already "


id: 909c1c36afb9ec16075754fac6a66e95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20284
content:
"of scientific literature combining different lines of evidence, and \r\nimproved accessibility to different types of climate models (high \r\nconfidence) (see Sections TS.2 and TS.4). {Cross-Working Group Box: \r\nAttribution in Chapter 1, 1.5, 3.2, 3.5, 5.2, 6.4.3, 8.3, 9.6, 10.1, 10.2, \r\n10.3.3, 10.4.1, 10.4.2, 10.4.3, 10.5, 10.6, Cross-Chapter Box  10.3, \r\nBox 10.3, 11.1.6, 11.2-11.9, 12.4}"


id: 66bc8dfad4b7378e8fba6a4804ea26e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13756
content:
"Various frameworks can be used to assess future climatic changes and \r\nto synthesize knowledge across climate change assessment in WGI, \r\nWGII and WGIII. These frameworks include: (i) scenarios, (ii) global \r\nwarming levels and (iii) cumulative CO2 emissions (see Core Concepts \r\nBox). The latter two offer scenario- and path-independent approaches \r\nto assess future projections. Additional choices, for instance with regard \r\nto common reference periods and time windows for which changes \r\nare assessed, can further help to facilitate integration across the WGI \r\nreport and across the whole AR6 (see Section TS.1.1). {1.4.1, 1.6, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 1.4, 4.2.2, 4.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: e1bfac1156189ce4f3f3a35115a1810b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33013
content:
"Combining the evidence from across the climate system increases \r\nthe level of confidence in the attribution of observed climate change \r\nto human influence and reduces the uncertainties associated with \r\nassessments based on single variables. {Cross-Chapter Box 10.3}"


id: fdfd98d06646baceaec2d7514b1e118e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37479
content:
"A core set of five illustrative scenarios based on the Shared \r\nSocio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are used consistently \r\nacross this Report: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, \r\nand SSP5-8.5. These scenarios cover a broader range of \r\ngreenhouse gas and air pollutant futures than assessed in \r\nearlier WGI reports, and they include high-CO2 emissions \r\npathways without climate change mitigation as well as new \r\nlow-CO2 emissions pathways (Figure TS.4). In these scenarios, \r\ndifferences in air pollution control and variations in climate \r\nchange mitigation stringency strongly affect anthropogenic \r\nemissions trajectories of SLCFs. Modelling studies relying \r\non the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used \r\nin AR5 complement the assessment based on SSP scenarios, \r\nfor example at the regional scale. "


id: 8cc1faea226824bb833963d0e1e3cb02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19662
content:
"Since AR5, the accumulation of energy in the Earth system has \r\nbecome established as a robust measure of the rate of global \r\nclimate change on interannual-to-decadal time scales. The rate of \r\naccumulation of energy is equivalent to Earth's energy imbalance \r\nand can be quantified by changes in the global energy inventory for \r\nall components of the climate system, including global ocean heat \r\nuptake, warming of the atmosphere, warming of the land and melting \r\nof ice. Compared to changes in global surface temperature, Earth's \r\nenergy imbalance (see Core Concepts Box) exhibits less variability, \r\nenabling more accurate identification and estimation of trends. {Box \r\n7.2 and Section 7.2}"


id: 2928255c18fe9884bb8c2f9c18a18a66
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3906
content:
"Identifying the human-induced components contributing to the \r\nenergy budget provides an implicit estimate of the human influence \r\non global climate change (Sections TS.2 and TS.3.1). {Cross-Working \r\nGroup Box: Attribution in Chapter  1, 3.8, 7.2.2, Box  7.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 9.1}"


id: fd13e763e5e2a35efcd6b17cc3446fe2
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vector_id: 37332
content:
"A comparison of simulations from CMIP5 using the RCPs \r\nwith SSP-based simulations from CMIP6 shows that about \r\nhalf of the increase in simulated warming in CMIP6 versus \r\nCMIP5 arises because higher climate sensitivity is more \r\nprevalent in CMIP6 model versions; the other half arises \r\nfrom higher radiative forcing in nominally corresponding \r\nscenarios (e.g., RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5; medium confidence). \r\nThe feasibility or likelihood of individual scenarios is not \r\npart of this assessment, which focuses on the climate \r\nresponse to a large range of emissions scenarios. {1.5.4, 1.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 1.4, 4.2, 4.3, 4.6, 6.6, 6.7, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 7.1, Atlas.2.1}"


id: 981ae4a6e8f487aa2015a0f6811c8bdc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21443
content:
"Climate change projections with climate models require information \r\nabout future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases, \r\naerosols, ozone-depleting substances, and land use over time \r\n(Figure TS.4). This information can be provided by scenarios, which \r\nare internally consistent projections of these quantities based on \r\nassumptions of how socio-economic systems could evolve over the \r\n21st century. Emissions from natural sources, such as the ocean and "


id: 2ef256c3910bb9fdf29abe0bc4961655
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4819
content:
"at the regional scale (Section TS.4). Scenario extensions are based \r\non assumptions about the post-2100 evolution of emissions or of \r\nradiative forcing that are independent from the modelling of socio\u0002economic dynamics, which does not extend beyond 2100. To explore \r\nspecific dimensions, such as air pollution or temporary overshoot of \r\na given warming level, scenario variants are used in addition to the \r\ncore set. {1.6.1, Cross-Chapter Box  1.4, 4.2.2, 4.2.6, 4.7.1, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 7.1}"


id: ecad4951499dca40bee3518d15c6925d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34709
content:
"the land biosphere, are usually assumed to be constant, or to evolve \r\nin response to changes in anthropogenic forcings or to projected \r\nclimate change. Natural forcings, such as past changes in solar \r\nirradiance and historical volcanic eruptions, are represented in model \r\nsimulations covering the historical era. Future simulations assessed \r\nin this Report account for projected changes in solar irradiance and \r\nfor the long-term mean background forcing from volcanoes, but not \r\nfor individual volcanic eruptions. Scenarios have a long history in \r\nIPCC as a method for systematically examining possible futures and \r\nfollowing the cause-effect chain: from anthropogenic emissions, to \r\nchanges in atmospheric concentrations, to changes in Earth's energy \r\nbalance ('forcing'), to changes in global climate and ultimately \r\nregional climate and climatic impact-drivers (Figure TS.4, Section \r\nTS.2, Infographic TS.1). {1.5.4, 1.6.1, 4.2.2, 4.4.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 4.1, 11.1}"


id: 41b041bc8e5ac772209976eb34d5ce6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7734
content:
"The uncertainty in climate change projections that results from \r\nassessing alternative socio-economic futures, the so-called scenario \r\nuncertainty, is explored through the use of scenario sets. Designed \r\nto span a wide range of possible future conditions, these scenarios \r\ndo not intend to match how events actually unfold in the future, \r\nand they do not account for impacts of climate change on the socio\u0002economic pathways. Besides scenario uncertainty, climate change \r\nprojections are also subject to climate response uncertainty (i.e., the \r\nuncertainty related to our understanding of the key physical processes \r\nand structural uncertainties in climate models) and irreducible and \r\nintrinsic uncertainties related to internal variability. Depending on \r\nthe spatial and temporal scales of the projection, and on the variable \r\nof interest, the relative importance of these different uncertainties \r\nmay vary substantially. {1.4.3, 1.6, 4.2.5, Box 4.1, 8.5.1}"


id: a623d315390d3957abdb8ca14ec93dc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23681
content:
"policies. Their effects on climate and air pollution are assessed in Box \r\nTS.7. {4.4.4, 6.6.1, Figure 6.4, 6.7.1, Figure 6.19}"


id: 3245b8f4e3e12760dd2b1d1bf532d7e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5321
content:
"For many indicators of climate change, such as seasonal and annual \r\nmean and extreme surface air temperatures and precipitation, the \r\ngeographical patterns of changes are well estimated by the level of \r\nglobal surface warming, independently of the details of the emissions \r\npathways that caused the warming, or the time at which the level of \r\nwarming is attained. GWLs, defined as a global surface temperature \r\nincrease of, for example, 1.5degC or 2degC relative to the mean of 1850-\r\n1900, are therefore a useful way to integrate climate information \r\nindependently of specific scenarios or time periods. {1.6.2, 4.2.4, \r\n4.6.1, 11.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: 1c02f3bbc729a8196075c56c39e59e58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1869
content:
"The use of GWLs allows disentangling the contribution of changes \r\nin global warming from regional aspects of the climate response, \r\nas scenario differences in response patterns at a given GWL are \r\noften smaller than model uncertainty and internal variability. The \r\nrelationship between the GWL and response patterns is often linear, \r\nbut integration of information can also be done for non-linear \r\nchanges, like the frequency of heat extremes. The requirement is that \r\nthe relationship to the GWL is broadly independent of the scenario \r\nand relative contribution of radiative forcing agents. {1.6, 11.2.4, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: d924b9707e5491a7343d8cf1a0352c4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31668
content:
"The GWL approach to integration of climate information also has \r\nsome limitations. Variables that are quick to respond to warming, \r\nlike temperature and precipitation, including extremes, sea ice area, \r\npermafrost and snow cover, show little scenario dependence for a \r\ngiven GWL, whereas slow-responding variables such as glacier and \r\nice-sheet mass, warming of the deep ocean and their contributions \r\nto sea level rise, have substantial dependency on the trajectory of "


id: 8eaa29d25e23585297367b06e5e95e4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19970
content:
"SR1.5 concluded that 'climate models project robust differences in \r\nregional climate characteristics between present-day and global \r\nwarming of 1.5degC, and between 1.5degC and 2degC'. This Report adopts \r\na set of common GWLs across which climate projections, impacts, \r\nadaptation challenges and climate change mitigation challenges can \r\nbe integrated, within and across the three Working Groups, relative \r\nto 1850-1900. The core set of GWLs in this Report are 1.0degC (close \r\nto present day conditions), 1.5degC, 2.0degC, 3.0degC and 4.0degC. {1.4, 1.6.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 1.2, Table 1.5, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: ae68dc8c5a387ff5200fd77fab42ce27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 24965
content:
"warming taken to reach the GWL. A given GWL can also be reached \r\nfor different balances between anthropogenic forcing agents, such \r\nas long-lived greenhouse gas and SLCF emissions, and the response \r\npatterns may depend on this balance. Finally, there is a difference \r\nin the response even for temperature-related variables if a GWL is \r\nreached in a rapidly warming transient state or in an equilibrium \r\nstate when the land-sea warming contrast is less pronounced. In this \r\nReport, the climate responses at different GWLs are calculated based \r\non climate model projections for the 21st century (see Figure TS.5), \r\nwhich are mostly not in equilibrium. The SSP1-1.9 scenario allows \r\nassessing the response to a GWL of about 1.5degC after a (relatively) \r\nshort-term stabilization by the end of the 21st century. {4.6.2, 9.3.1.1, \r\n9.5.2.3, 9.5.3.3, 11.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box  11.1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 12.1}"


id: d6eb3ea1cc5ad7bbabbcc7e4d9ab516d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31319
content:
"In this Report, scenario-based climate projections are translated \r\ninto GWLs by aggregating the ESM model response at specific \r\nGWLs across scenarios (see Figure TS.5 and Figure TS.6). The climate \r\nresponse pattern for the 20-year period around when individual \r\nsimulations reach a given GWL are averaged across all models and \r\nscenarios that reach that GWL. The best estimate and likely range \r\nof the timing of when a certain GWL is reached under a particular \r\nscenario (or 'GWL-crossing time'), however, is based not only on \r\nCMIP6 output, but on a combined assessment taking into account \r\nthe observed warming to date, CMIP6 output and additional lines \r\nof evidence (see Cross-Section Box TS.1). {4.3.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 11.1, Atlas.2, Interactive Atlas} "


id: 18b68ab4c2d8831988ee4850adf25f4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1385
content:
"Global warming levels are highly relevant as a dimension of \r\nintegration across scientific disciplines and socio-economic actors \r\nand are motivated by the long-term goal in the Paris Agreement \r\nof 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well \r\nbelow 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit \r\nthe temperature increase to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels'. \r\nThe evolution of aggregated impacts with temperature levels has \r\nalso been widely used and embedded in the WGII assessment. \r\nThis includes the 'Reasons for Concern' (RFC) and other 'burning \r\nember' diagrams in IPCC WGII. The RFC framework has been further \r\nexpanded in SR1.5, SROCC and SRCCL by explicitly looking at the \r\ndifferential impacts between half-degree GWLs and the evolution of \r\nrisk for different socio-economic assumptions. {1.4.4, 1.6.2, 11.2.4, \r\n12.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1}"


id: 379e023cd5309241b62ff9d165681638
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6129
content:
"Global warming levels are closely related to cumulative CO2 (and \r\nin some cases CO2-equivalent) emissions. This Report confirms the \r\nassessment of the WGI contribution to AR5 and SR1.5 that a near\u0002linear relationship exists between cumulative CO2 emissions and the "


id: 32ad1abe496727aa79eef46dec5382fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5391
content:
"as sub-continents and oceanic regions, or to typological regions, such \r\nas monsoon regions, coastlines, mountain ranges or cities, as used in \r\nSection TS.4. A new set of standard AR6 WGI reference regions has \r\nalso been included in this Report (Figure TS.6, bottom panels). {1.4.5, \r\n10.1, 11.9, 12.1-12.4, Atlas.1.3.3-1.3.4}"


id: 59ba718e59666ff85b3bdec3ec603d48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11619
content:
"Global and regional climate models are important sources of climate \r\ninformation at the regional scale. Since AR5, a more comprehensive \r\nassessment of past and future evolution of a range of climate variables \r\non a regional scale has been enabled by the increased availability \r\nof coordinated ensemble regional climate model projections and \r\nimprovements in the level of sophistication and resolution of \r\nglobal and regional climate models. This has been complemented \r\nby observational, attribution and sectoral-vulnerability studies \r\ninforming, for instance, about impact-relevant tolerance thresholds. \r\n{10.3.3, 11.9, 12.1, 12.3, 12.6, Atlas.3-Atlas.11}"


id: d3a077cc499929b2cc90cbbf5369f782
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30820
content:
"The AR6 WGI Report has an expanded focus on regional \r\ninformation supported by the increased availability of \r\ncoordinated regional climate model ensemble projections \r\nand improvements in the sophistication and resolution \r\nof global and regional climate models (high confidence). \r\nMultiple lines of evidence can be used to construct climate \r\ninformation on a global to regional scale and can be further \r\ndistilled in a co-production process to meet user needs (high \r\nconfidence). To better support risk assessment, a common \r\nrisk framework across all three Working Groups has been \r\nimplemented in AR6, and low-likelihood but high-impact \r\noutcomes are explicitly addressed in WGI by using physical \r\nclimate storylines (see Core Concepts Box). "


id: 70bc18b47491a2b16ff461ad4df5d6e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15360
content:
"From the multiple lines of evidence, climate information can be \r\ndistilled in a co-production process that involves users, related \r\nstakeholders and producers of climate information, considering the \r\nspecific context of the question at stake, the underlying values and \r\nthe challenge of communicating across different communities. The \r\nco-production process is an essential part of climate services, which \r\nare discussed in Section TS.4.1.2. {10.5, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2}"


id: b10be833c551f2ec7a488cf726b5e87b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25361
content:
"Climatic impact-drivers are physical climate system \r\nconditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect \r\nan element of society or ecosystems. They are the WGI \r\ncontribution to the risk framing without anticipating \r\nwhether their impact provides potential opportunities \r\nor is detrimental (i.e., as for hazards). Many global and \r\nregional climatic impact-drivers have a direct relation to \r\nglobal warming levels (high confidence). {1.4.4, 1.5.2-1.5.4, \r\nCross-Chapter Box  1.3, 4.8, 10.1, 10.5.1, Box  10.2, Cross\u0002Chapter Box  10.3, 11.2.4, 11.9, Box  11.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  11.1, 12.1-12.3, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Boxes 12.1 and \r\n12.2, Atlas.1.3.3-1.3.4, Atlas.1.4, Atlas.1.4.4}"


id: 24d7915b8ca3a0f755588131719dcaf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3240
content:
"With the aim of informing decision-making at local or regional \r\nscales, a common risk framework has been implemented in AR6. \r\nMethodologies have been developed to construct more impact- and \r\nrisk-relevant climate change information tailored to regions and \r\nstakeholders. Physical storyline approaches are used in order to \r\nbuild climate information based on multiple lines of evidence, and \r\nwhich can explicitly address physically plausible, but low-likelihood, \r\nhigh-impact outcomes and uncertainties related to climate variability \r\nfor consideration in risk assessments (Figure TS.6). {Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 1.3, 4.8, Box 9.4, 10.5, Box 10.2, Box 11.2, 12.1-12.3, 12.6, \r\nGlossary}"


id: ecbeb341d2e941a59dc729605ef0f739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34726
content:
"Climate change is a global phenomenon, but manifests differently \r\nin different regions. The impacts of climate change are generally \r\nexperienced at local, national and regional scales, and these are \r\nalso the scales at which decisions are typically made. Robust climate \r\nchange information is increasingly available at regional scales for \r\nimpact and risk assessments. Depending on the climate information \r\ncontext, geographical regions in AR6 may refer to larger areas, such "


id: 2c98593d56a33d38c59505bed3bd7ba7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4445
content:
"The climatic impact-driver framework developed in AR6 supports \r\nan assessment of changing climate conditions that are relevant \r\nfor sectoral impacts and risk assessment. Climatic impact-drivers \r\n(CIDs) are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, extremes, "


id: 7cefed6cdeaca6826c265c101e44446c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17254
content:
"events) that affect an element of society or ecosystems and are thus \r\na potential priority for providing climate information. For instance, \r\nthe heat index used by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric \r\nAdministration (NOAA HI) for issuing heat warnings is a CID index \r\nthat can be associated with adverse human health impacts due to \r\nheat stress (see Figure TS.6). Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and \r\ntheir changes can be detrimental (i.e., hazards in the risk framing), \r\nbeneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system \r\nelements, regions and sectors (aligning with WGII Sectoral Chapters \r\n2-8). Each sector is affected by multiple CIDs, and each CID affects \r\nmultiple sectors. Climate change has already altered CID profiles and \r\nresulted in shifting magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonality and \r\nspatial extent of associated indices (high confidence) (see regional \r\ndetails in Section TS.4.3). {12.1-12.4, Table 12.1, Table 12.2, Annex VI}"


id: f2d64c588b53ed62d6fd997bf23224e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35732
content:
"Many global- and regional-scale CIDs, including extremes, have \r\na direct relation to global warming levels (GWLs) and can thus inform \r\nthe hazard component of 'Representative Key Risks' and 'Reasons for \r\nConcern' assessed by AR6 WGII. These include heat, cold, wet and dry \r\nhazards, both mean and extremes; cryospheric hazards (snow cover, \r\nice extent, permafrost) and oceanic hazards (marine heatwaves) \r\n(high confidence) (Figure TS.6). Establishing links between specific \r\nGWLs with tipping points and irreversible behaviour is challenging \r\ndue to model uncertainties and lack of observations, but their \r\noccurrence cannot be excluded, and their likelihood of occurrence \r\ngenerally increases at greater warming levels (Box TS.1, Section TS.9).\r\n{11.2.4, Box 11.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 11.1 and 12.1}"


id: a749b54ac5611bda656850075d49d8d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23833
content:
"Dataset innovations, particularly more comprehensive representation of polar regions, and the availability of new datasets have led \r\nto an assessment of increased global surface temperature change relative to the directly equivalent estimates reported in AR5. The \r\ncontribution of changes in observational understanding alone between AR5 and AR6 in assessing temperature changes from 1850-1900"


id: 4300c76c019af18dcce7cc724ab657e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7938
content:
"to 1986-2005 is estimated at 0.08 [-0.01 to 0.12] degC. Global surface temperature increased from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014 by 0.85 \r\n[0.69 to 0.95] degC, between 1850-1900 and the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) by 0.99 [0.84 to 1.20] degC, and to \r\nthe most recent decade (2011-2020) by 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] degC. Each of the last four decades has in turn been warmer than any decade \r\nthat preceded it since 1850. Temperatures have increased faster over land than over the ocean since 1850-1900, with warming to \r\n2011-2020 of 1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] degC over land and 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] degC over the ocean. {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3}"


id: b8058598957df021cb55caf92a4d2198
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26481
content:
"Global surface temperature during the period 1850-1900 is used as an approximation for pre-industrial conditions for consistency \r\nwith AR5 and AR6 Special Reports, whilst recognizing that radiative forcings have a baseline of 1750 for the start of anthropogenic \r\ninfluences. It is likely that there was a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0-0.3 Wm-2 in 1850-1900 relative to 1750 (medium confidence), \r\nand from the period around 1750 to 1850-1900, there was a change in global surface temperature of around 0.1degC (likely range \r\n-0.1 to +0.3degC, medium confidence), with an anthropogenic component of 0.0degC to 0.2degC (likely range, medium confidence). {Cross\u0002Chapter Box 1.2, 7.3.5}"


id: cc66ce1a0901a9224aef17ce620250da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29698
content:
"There is very high confidence that the CMIP6 model ensemble reproduces observed global surface temperature trends and variability \r\nsince 1850 with errors small enough to allow for detection and attribution of human-induced warming. The CMIP6 multi-model mean \r\nglobal surface warming between 1850-1900 and 2010-2019 is close to the best estimate of observed warming, though some CMIP6 \r\nmodels simulate a warming that is outside the assessed very likely observed range. {3.3.1}"


id: 75b47c2ebf706436a6dac9e72fe891ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16114
content:
"The AR6 assessment of future change in global surface temperature is, for the first time in an IPCC report, explicitly constructed by \r\ncombining new projections for the SSP scenarios with observational constraints based on past simulated warming as well as the AR6-\r\nupdated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. In addition, climate forecasts initialized from \r\nthe observed climate state have been used for the period 2019-2028. The inclusion of additional lines of evidence has reduced the \r\nassessed uncertainty ranges for each scenario (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, Box 4.1, 7.5}"


id: 326126b072c5ff0c1be781752793762b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5335
content:
"It is more likely than not that under SSP1-1.9, global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 will remain below 1.6degC throughout \r\nthe 21st century, implying a potential temporary overshoot of 1.5degC global warming of no more than 0.1degC. If climate sensitivity lies \r\nnear the lower end of the assessed very likely range, crossing the 1.5degC warming level is avoided in scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 \r\n(medium confidence). Global surface temperature in any individual year, in contrast to the 20-year average, could by 2030 exceed \r\n1.5degC relative to 1850-1900 with a likelihood between 40% and 60%, across the scenarios considered here (medium confidence). \r\n(Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1) {4.3.4, 4.4.1, Box 4.1, 7.5}"


id: c8008389e0fbeda49a3afb0b3c502d8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29045
content:
"During the 21st century, a 2degC increase in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 will be crossed under SSP5-8.5 and \r\nSSP3-7.0, is extremely likely to be crossed under SSP2-4.5, but is unlikely to be crossed under SSP1-2.6 and extremely unlikely to be \r\ncrossed under SSP1-1.9. For the mid-term period 2041-2060, this 2degC global warming level is very likely to be crossed under SSP5-8.5, \r\nlikely to be crossed under SSP3-7.0, and more likely than not to be crossed under SSP2-4.5. (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1) {4.3.4}"


id: 5359df918fe5f9c39b6f6da78752a02c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10581
content:
"Events of reduced and increased global surface temperature trends at decadal time scales will continue to occur in the 21st century \r\nbut will not affect the centennial-scale warming (very high confidence). If strong mitigation is applied from 2020 onward as reflected \r\nin SSP1-1.9, its effect on 20-year trends in global surface temperature would likely emerge during the near term (2021-2040), \r\nmeasured against an assumed non-mitigation scenario such as SSP3-7.0 or SSP5-8.5. All statements about crossing the 1.5degC level \r\nassume that no major volcanic eruption occurs during the near term (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1). {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, \r\n4.3.4, 4.4.1, 4.6.3, Box 4.1}"


id: f767b01341304278af1dd07d1bf6b67a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 36437
content:
"Compared to 1850-1900, average global surface temperature over the period 2081-2100 is very likely to be higher by [1.0degC to \r\n1.8degC] in the low CO2 emissions scenario SSP1-1.9 and by [3.3degC to 5.7degC] in the high CO2 emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. For the \r\nscenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, the corresponding very likely ranges are [1.3degC to 2.4degC], [2.1degC to 3.5degC], and [2.8degC \r\nto 4.6degC], respectively. The uncertainty ranges for the period 2081-2100 continue to be dominated by the uncertainty in equilibrium \r\nclimate sensitivity and transient climate response (very high confidence) (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, 4.4.1, 7.5}"


id: 994e6728af37b8207c5085c568d21213
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 21633
content:
"The CMIP6 models project a wider range of global surface temperature change than the assessed range (high confidence); furthermore, \r\nthe CMIP6 global surface temperature increase tends to be larger than that in CMIP5 (very high confidence). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, 4.6.2, 7.5.6}"


id: 5bd215d8ebfbd75f98cc79cdb8fa2900
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11961
content:
"Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1 | Assessment results for 20-year averaged change in global surface temperature based on multiple lines of \r\nevidence. The change is displayed in degC relative to the 1850-1900 reference period for selected time periods (first three rows), and as the first 20-year period during \r\nwhich the average global surface temperature change exceeds the specified level relative to the period 1850-1900 (last four rows). The entries give both the central \r\nestimate and, in parentheses, the very likely (5-95%) range. An entry n.c. means that the global warming level is not crossed during the period 2021-2100."


id: df719db71c84236b21567337d645fb15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32658
content:
"substantial reductions in global GHG emissions. Continued \r\nGHG emissions greatly increase the likelihood of potentially \r\nirreversible changes in the global climate system (Box TS.9), \r\nin particular with respect to the contribution of ice sheets \r\nto global sea level change (high confidence). {2.3, 3.8, 4.3, \r\n4.6, 4.7, 7.2-7.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7.1, 9.2-9.6}"


id: c502ef68f66f44548c86391e9363ba84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28573
content:
"This section summarizes knowledge about observed and projected \r\nlarge-scale climate change (including variability and extremes), \r\ndrivers and attribution of observed changes to human activities. It \r\ndescribes observed and projected large-scale changes associated \r\nwith major components of the climate system: atmosphere, ocean \r\n(including sea level change), land, biosphere and cryosphere, and the \r\ncarbon, energy and water cycles. In each subsection, reconstructed \r\npast changes, observed and attributed recent changes, and projected \r\nnear- and long-term changes to mean climate, variability and \r\nextremes are presented, where possible, in an integrated way. See \r\nSection TS.1.3.1 for information on the scenarios used for projections."


id: 6777d95c9cbac966a9036f07faeb7841
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13866
content:
"Earth system model simulations of the historical period since 1850 \r\nare only able to reproduce the observed changes in key climate \r\nindicators when anthropogenic forcings are included (Figure TS.7). \r\nTaken together with numerous formal attribution studies across an \r\neven broader range of indicators and theoretical understanding, \r\nthis underpins the unequivocal attribution of observed warming of \r\nthe atmosphere, ocean, and land to human influence (Table TS.1). \r\n{2.3, 3.8}"


id: b46bf0b29f813c9c43268d6ac9bf3e04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 25908
content:
"In addition to global surface temperature (Cross-Section Box \r\nTS.1), a wide range of indicators across all components of \r\nthe climate system are changing rapidly (Figure TS.7), with \r\nmany at levels unseen in millennia. The observed changes \r\nprovide a coherent picture of a warming world, many \r\naspects of which have now been formally attributed to \r\nhuman influence, and human influence on the atmosphere, \r\nocean, and land components of the climate system, taken \r\ntogether, is assessed as unequivocal for the first time in an \r\nIPCC assessment report (Table TS.1, Figure TS.7). "


id: 4e219b880ad76ec89570d85c7df4f904
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9716
content:
"Table TS.1 | Assessment of observed changes in large-scale indicators of mean climate across climate system components and their attribution to human \r\ninfluence. The colour coding indicates the assessed confidence in/likelihood of the human contribution as a driver or main driver19 (main driver is specified in that case) where \r\navailable (see colour key). Otherwise, explanatory text is provided in cells with white background. The relevant chapter section with more detailed information is listed in each \r\ntable cell."


id: 2ccd000c217cafc9a73c1491296ac891
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content_type: text
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vector_id: 4481
content:
"centuries to millennia. Furthermore, it is likely that at least one large \r\nvolcanic eruption will occur during the 21st century. Such an eruption \r\nwould reduce global surface temperature for several years, decrease \r\nland precipitation, alter monsoon circulation and modify extreme \r\nprecipitation, at both global and regional scales. {4.3, 4.7, 9.4, 9.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: 3c002979574c2371a18f14b41d0839ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6797
content:
"Future climate change across a range of atmospheric, cryospheric, \r\noceanic and biospheric indicators depends upon future emissions \r\npathways. Outcomes for a broad range of indicators increasingly \r\ndiverge through the 21st century across the different SSPs (Section \r\nTS.1.3.1, Figure TS.8). Due to the slow response of the deep ocean \r\nand ice sheets, this divergence continues long after 2100, and 21st \r\ncentury emissions choices will have implications for GMSL rise for "


id: 6f51079549eb7c2b8466537532e327fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15143
content:
"human influence is the main contributor to the observed increase \r\n(decrease) in the likelihood and severity of hot (cold) extremes (Table \r\nTS.2). The frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events \r\nin the current climate will change with warming, with warm extremes \r\nbecoming more frequent (virtually certain), cold extremes becoming \r\nless frequent (extremely likely) and precipitation extremes becoming \r\nmore frequent in most locations (very likely). {9.6.4, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, \r\n11.6, 11.7, 11.8, 11.9, Box 9.2}"


id: e383647875608edb314506428de16797
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33274
content:
"Observational records show changes in a wide range of climate \r\nextremes that have been linked to human influence on the climate \r\nsystem (Table TS.2). In many cases, the frequency and intensity of \r\nfuture changes in extremes can be directly linked to the magnitude \r\nof future projected warming. Changes in extremes have been \r\nwidespread over land since the 1950s, including a virtually certain\r\nglobal increase in extreme air temperatures and a likely intensification \r\nin global-scale extreme precipitation. It is extremely likely that "


id: 8d851943f49593b620ea5f4355141bcd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19791
content:
"The total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) \r\nin 2019, relative to 1750, was 2.72 [1.96 to 3.48] W m-2\r\n(medium confidence) and has likely been growing at an \r\nincreasing rate since the 1970s. {2.2, 6.4, 7.2, 7.3}"


id: 98b6f1949e1d75ca50aa6450564a091b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21543
content:
"Since 1750, changes in the drivers of the climate system \r\nare dominated by the warming influence of increases in \r\natmospheric GHG concentrations and a cooling influence \r\nfrom aerosols, both resulting from human activities. In \r\ncomparison there has been negligible long-term influence \r\nfrom solar activity and volcanoes. Concentrations of CO2, \r\nmethane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to \r\nlevels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, and there \r\nis high confidence that current CO2 concentrations have not \r\nbeen experienced for at least 2 million years. Global mean \r\nconcentrations of anthropogenic aerosols peaked in the \r\nlate 20th century and have slowly declined since in northern \r\nmid-latitudes, although they continue to increase in South \r\nAsia and East Africa (high confidence). "


id: 24ebe9ec289c89cd93a6a279950086e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3251
content:
"Solar activity since 1900 was high but not exceptional compared to \r\nthe past 9000 years (high confidence). The average magnitude and \r\nvariability of volcanic aerosols since 1900 has not been unusual \r\ncompared to at least the past 2500 years (medium confidence). \r\nHowever, sporadic strong volcanic eruptions can lead to temporary \r\ndrops in global surface temperature lasting 2-5 years. {2.2.1, 2.2.2, \r\n2.2.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: 3c834947c787a8a21f47f7de1e96eb18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6886
content:
"Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have changed substantially \r\nover millions of years (Figure TS.1). Current levels of atmospheric \r\nCO2 have not been experienced for at least 2 million years (high "


id: 3d007033394fecec5c8156c6380e3739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6959
content:
"Figure TS.9 | Changes in well-mixed greenhouse gas (WMGHG) concentrations and effective radiative forcing (EFR). The intent of this figure is to show that the \r\nchanges of the main drivers of climate system over the industrial period are exceptional in a long-term context. (a) Changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) from proxy records over the \r\npast 3.5 million years. (b) Changes in all three WMGHGs from ice core records over the Common Era. (c) Directly observed WMGHG changes since the mid-20th century. (d)\r\nEvolution of ERF and components since 1750. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the associated FAIR data table. {2.2, Figures 2.3, 2.4 and 2.10}"


id: d110c5b6052eed514c2cf1b6910465af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30431
content:
"confidence, Figure TS.9a). Over 1750-2019, CO2 increased by 131.6 \r\n+- 2.9 ppm (47.3%). The centennial rate of change of CO2 since 1850 \r\nhas no precedent in at least the past 800,000 years (Figure TS.9), \r\nand the fastest rates of change over the last 56 million years were \r\nat least a factor of four lower (low confidence) than over 1900-\r\n2019. Several networks of high-accuracy surface observations \r\nshow that concentrations of CO2 have exceeded 400 ppm, reaching \r\n409.9 (+- 0.3) ppm in 2019 (Figure TS.9c). The ERF from CO2 in 2019 \r\n(relative to 1750) was 2.16 Wm-2. {2.2.3, 5.1.2, 5.2.1, 7.3}"


id: c601757286f28607bb3d8d8a65233378
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28731
content:
"the late 20th century, with low confidence in the magnitude of \r\npost-2014 changes due to conflicting evidence (Section TS.3.1). \r\n{2.2.6, 6.2.1, 6.3.5, 6.4.1, 7.3.3}"


id: 2e469bfa46ae2818abc0dcde1bd966a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4718
content:
"By 2019, concentrations of CH4 reached 1866.3 (+- 3.3) ppb \r\n(Figure TS.9c). The increase since 1750 of 1137 +- 10 ppb (157.8%) far \r\nexceeds the range over multiple glacial-interglacial transitions of the \r\npast 800,000 years (high confidence). In the 1990s, CH4 concentrations \r\nplateaued, but started to increase again around 2007 at an average \r\nrate of 7.6 +- 2.7 ppb yr-1 (2010-2019; high confidence). There is high \r\nconfidence that this recent growth is largely driven by emissions \r\nfrom fossil fuel exploitation, livestock, and waste, with ENSO driving \r\nmulti-annual variability of wetland and biomass burning emissions. \r\nIn 2019, ERF from CH4 was 0.54 Wm-2. {2.2.3, 5.2.2, 7.3}"


id: d890b5a490187cc5bbb75f00a480c1b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31589
content:
"Since 1750, N2O increased by 62.0 +- 6.0 ppb, reaching a level of \r\n332.1 (+- 0.4) ppb in 2019. The increase since 1750 is of comparable \r\nmagnitude to glacial-interglacial fluctuations of the past \r\n800,000  years (Figure TS.9c). N2O concentration trends since 1980 \r\nare largely driven by a 30% increase in emissions from the expansion \r\nand intensification of global agriculture (high confidence). By 2019 \r\nits ERF was 0.21 W m-2. {2.2.3, 5.2.3}"


id: 20a79bda0ef865f8d07d2ee44cd22a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2582
content:
"The global mean abundance of hydroxyl (OH) radical, or 'oxidizing \r\ncapacity', chemically regulates the lifetimes of many SLCFs, and \r\ntherefore the radiative forcing of CH4, ozone, secondary aerosols \r\nand many halogenated species. Model estimates suggest no \r\nsignificant change in oxidizing capacity from 1850 to 1980 (low \r\nconfidence). Increases of about 9% over 1980-2014 computed by \r\nESMs and carbon cycle models are not confirmed by observationally \r\nconstrained inverse models, rendering an overall medium confidence\r\nin stable OH or positive trends since the 1980s, and implying that OH \r\nis not the primary driver of recent observed growth in CH4. {6.3.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 5.2}"


id: 13dfc001cd8cdb8b8054e4a9bc47927e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 633
content:
"Halogenated gases consist of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), \r\nhydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and \r\nother gases, many of which can deplete stratospheric ozone and \r\nwarm the atmosphere. In response to controls on production and \r\nconsumption mandated by the Montreal Protocol on Substances \r\nthat Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments, the atmospheric \r\nabundances of most CFCs have continued to decline since AR5. \r\nAbundances of HFCs, which are replacements for CFCs and HCFCs, \r\nare increasing (high confidence), though increases of the major HCFCs \r\nhave slowed in recent years. The ERF from halogenated components \r\nin 2019 was 0.41 Wm-2. {2.2.4, 6.3.4, 7.3.2}"


id: 43a5aad9027b868b3a611854aa2fbdce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8046
content:
"Land use and land-cover change exert biophysical and biogeochemical \r\neffects. There is medium confidence that the biophysical effects \r\nof land-use change since 1750, most notably the increase in \r\nglobal albedo, have had an overall cooling on climate, whereas \r\nbiogeochemical effects (i.e., changes in GHG and volatile organic \r\ncompound emissions or sinks) led to net warming. Overall land-use \r\nand land-cover ERF is estimated at -0.2 [-0.3 to -0.1] W m-2. {2.2.7, \r\n7.3.4, SRCCL Section 2.5}"


id: 228f2059cb97849796fe22830b9e0e7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2890
content:
"The total anthropogenic ERF in 2019 relative to 1750 was 2.72 [1.96 \r\nto 3.48] W m-2 (Figure TS.9), dominated by GHGs (positive ERF) and \r\npartially offset by aerosols (negative ERF). The rate of change of ERF \r\nlikely has increased since the 1970s, mainly due to growing CO2\r\nconcentrations and less negative aerosol ERF (Section TS.3.1). {2.2.8, \r\n7.3}"


id: 6e91fd4b65d1ac8f8402e55656f64e19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15024
content:
"track in the Southern Hemisphere by 2100 under the high \r\nCO2 emissions scenarios. It is likely that the proportion of \r\nintense tropical cyclones has increased over the last four \r\ndecades and that this cannot be explained entirely by \r\nnatural variability. There is low confidence in observed \r\nrecent changes in the total number of extratropical cyclones \r\nover both hemispheres. The proportion of tropical cyclones \r\nthat are intense is expected to increase (high confidence), \r\nbut the total global number of tropical cyclones is expected \r\nto decrease or remain unchanged (medium confidence). \r\n{2.3, 3.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 8.3, 8.4, 11.7}"


id: d76ab4a50d95f3325b779063e84eb16e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31411
content:
"The effects of human-induced climate change have \r\nbeen clearly identified in observations of atmospheric \r\ntemperature and some aspects of atmospheric circulation, \r\nand these effects are likely to intensify in the future. \r\nTropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling are \r\nvirtually certain to continue with continued net emissions \r\nof greenhouse gases. Several aspects of the atmospheric \r\ncirculation have likely changed since the mid-20th century, \r\nand human influence has likely contributed to the observed \r\npoleward expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell \r\nand very likely contributed to the observed poleward shift \r\nof the Southern Hemisphere extratropical jet in summer. It \r\nis likely that the mid-latitude jet will shift poleward and \r\nstrengthen, accompanied by a strengthening of the storm "


id: af001605814bfda6782d3d19a3f3b016
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25069
content:
"The troposphere has warmed since at least the 1950s, and it is virtually \r\ncertain that the stratosphere has cooled. It is very likely that human\u0002induced increases in GHGs were the main driver of tropospheric \r\nwarming since 1979. It is extremely likely that anthropogenic \r\nforcing, both from increases in GHG concentrations and depletion of "


id: 83bbbb6a465eb7fc9d4c681bf3b9dd15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18259
content:
"stratospheric ozone due to ozone-depleting substances, was the main \r\ndriver of upper stratospheric cooling since 1979. It is very likely that \r\nglobal mean stratospheric cooling will be larger for scenarios with \r\nhigher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the tropics, since at least \r\n2001 (when new techniques permit more robust quantification), the \r\nupper troposphere has warmed faster than the near-surface (medium \r\nconfidence) (Figure TS.10). There is medium confidence that most \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the observed warming in \r\nthe upper tropical troposphere over the period 1979-2014, in part \r\nbecause they overestimate tropical SST warming. It is likely that \r\nfuture tropical upper tropospheric warming will be larger than at the \r\ntropical surface. {2.3.1, 3.3.1, 4.5.1}"


id: c71f2c5ebbbfd20edd50c386ffaabebb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28912
content:
"the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet is likely to shift poleward \r\nand strengthen under the SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to 1995-2014, \r\naccompanied by an increase in the SAM (Section TS.4.2.2). It is \r\nlikely that wind speeds associated with extratropical cyclones will \r\nstrengthen in the Southern Hemisphere storm track for SSP5-8.5. \r\nThere is low confidence in the potential role of Arctic warming and \r\nsea ice loss on historical or projected mid-latitude atmospheric \r\nvariability. {2.3.1, 3.3.3, 3.7.2, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 4.5.1, 4.5.3, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 10.1}"


id: 4f7f674a654429b73b1a4aaa52896dfb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9941
content:
"The Hadley Circulation has likely widened since at least the 1980s, \r\npredominantly in the Northern Hemisphere, although there is only\r\nmedium confidence in the extent of the changes. This has been \r\naccompanied by a strengthening of the Hadley Circulation in the \r\nNorthern Hemisphere (medium confidence). It is likely that human \r\ninfluence has contributed to the poleward expansion of the zonal \r\nmean Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1980s, which \r\nis projected to further expand with global warming (high confidence). \r\nThere is medium confidence that the observed poleward expansion \r\nin the Northern Hemisphere is within the range of internal variability. \r\n{2.3.1, 3.3.3, 8.4.3}"


id: c6ec34d3b0dd63aedd147a2f1e496df9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28880
content:
"Previous IPCC reports largely focused their assessment on the projected very likely range of future surface warming and associated \r\nclimate change. However, a comprehensive risk assessment also requires considering the potentially larger changes in the physical \r\nclimate system that are unlikely or very unlikely but possible and potentially associated with the highest risks for society and \r\necosystems (Figure TS.6). Since AR5, the development of physical climate storylines of high warming has emerged as a useful approach \r\nfor exploring the future risk space that lies outside of the IPCC very likely range projections. {4.8}"


id: 798371c9c3565018f5658d8a241c2b8d
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vector_id: 16691
content:
"While there is medium confidence that the projected decline in the AMOC (Section TS.2.4) will not involve an abrupt collapse \r\nbefore 2100, such a collapse might be triggered by an unexpected meltwater influx from the Greenland Ice Sheet. If an AMOC collapse \r\nwere to occur, it would very likely cause abrupt shifts in the regional weather patterns and water cycle, such as a southward shift in the \r\ntropical rain belt, and could result in weakening of the African and Asian monsoons, strengthening of Southern Hemisphere monsoons, \r\nand drying in Europe. (See also Boxes TS.9 and TS.13). {4.7.2, 8.6.1, 9.2.3}"


id: a12532b1be069271ede19838481ea2f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22912
content:
"Very rare extremes and compound or concurrent events, such as the 2018 concurrent heatwaves across the Northern Hemisphere, are \r\noften associated with large impacts. The changing climate state is already altering the likelihood of extreme events, such as decadal \r\ndroughts and extreme sea levels, and will continue to do so under future warming. Compound events and concurrent extremes \r\ncontribute to increasing probability of low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes and will become more frequent with increasing global \r\nwarming (high confidence). Higher warming levels increase the likelihood of events unprecedented in the observational record. {9.6.4, \r\nBox 11.2}"


id: b8da84456a81a260b25e329fb164a047
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26610
content:
"Finally, low likelihood storylines need not necessarily relate solely to the human-induced changes in climate. A low-likelihood, high\u0002impact outcome, consistent with historical precedent in the past 2500 years, would be to see several large volcanic eruptions that \r\ncould greatly alter the 21st century climate trajectory compared to SSP-based Earth system model projections. {Cross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: cbfe735c658b21a422d9edc923a3e398
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29638
content:
"Global mean SST has increased since the beginning of the 20th \r\ncentury by 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] degC, and it is virtually certain it will \r\ncontinue to increase throughout the 21st century, with increasing \r\nhazards to marine ecosystems (medium confidence). Marine \r\nheatwaves have become more frequent over the 20th century (high \r\nconfidence), approximately doubling in frequency (high confidence) \r\nand becoming more intense and longer since the 1980s (medium \r\nconfidence). Most of the marine heatwaves over 2006-2015 have \r\nbeen attributed to anthropogenic warming (very likely). Marine \r\nheatwaves will continue to increase in frequency, with a likely global \r\nincrease of 2-9 times in 2081-2100 compared to 1995-2014 under \r\nSSP1-2.6, and 3-15 times under SSP5-8.5 (Figure TS.11a), with \r\nthe largest changes in the tropical and Arctic ocean. {2.3.1, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 2.3, 9.2.1, Box 9.2, 12.4.8}"


id: e4116b8de7a16a90e56949c8addbda7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33365
content:
"Observed upper-ocean stratification (0-200 m) has increased \r\nglobally since at least 1970 (virtually certain). Based on recent refined \r\nanalyses of the available observations, there is high confidence\r\nthat it increased by 4.9 +- 1.5% from 1970-2018, which is about \r\ntwice as much as assessed in SROCC, and will continue to increase \r\nthroughout the 21st century at a rate depending on the emissions \r\nscenario (virtually certain). {2.3.3, 9.2.1}"


id: 3dc8d1edefa799e7babbb6cce84035aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7075
content:
"It is virtually certain that since 1950 near-surface high-salinity \r\nregions have become more saline, while low-salinity regions have \r\nbecome fresher, with medium confidence that this is linked to an \r\nintensification of the hydrological cycle (Box TS.6). It is extremely \r\nlikely that human influence has contributed to this salinity change \r\nand that the large-scale pattern will grow in amplitude over the 21st \r\ncentury (medium confidence). {2.3.3, 3.5.2, 9.2.2, 12.4.8}"


id: 4af5ea03e22cfba1b464d8bea62a6fb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9210
content:
"The amount of ocean warming observed since 1971 \r\nwill likely at least double by 2100 under a low warming \r\nscenario (SSP1-2.6) and will increase by 4-8 times under \r\na high warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Stratification (virtually \r\ncertain), acidification (virtually certain), deoxygenation \r\n(high confidence) and marine heatwave frequency (high \r\nconfidence) will continue to increase in the 21st century. \r\nWhile there is low confidence in 20th century AMOC change, \r\nit is very likely that AMOC will decline over the 21st century \r\n(Figure TS.11). {2.3, 3.5, 3.6, 4.3.2, 5.3, 7.2, 9.2, Box 9.2, 12.4}"


id: 304a7e4fcd3b2efcf2e412f802e0c2b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5025
content:
"The AMOC was relatively stable during the past 8000 years (medium \r\nconfidence). There is low confidence in the quantification of AMOC \r\nchanges in the 20th century because of low agreement in quantitative \r\nreconstructed and simulated trends, missing key processes in both \r\nmodels and measurements used for formulating proxies, and new \r\nmodel evaluations. Direct observational records since the mid-2000s \r\nare too short to determine the relative contributions of internal \r\nvariability, natural forcing and anthropogenic forcing to AMOC \r\nchange (high confidence). An AMOC decline over the 21st century \r\nis very likely for all SSP scenarios (Figure TS.11b); a possible abrupt \r\ndecline is assessed further in Box TS.3. {2.3.3, 3.5.4, 4.3.2, 8.6.1, \r\n9.2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 12.3}"


id: 2e9160cffa3d8c1ffcf5146e9f6e316d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4771
content:
"There is high confidence that many ocean currents will change in \r\nthe 21st century in response to changes in wind stress. There is low \r\nconfidence in 21st century change of Southern Ocean circulation, \r\ndespite high confidence that it is sensitive to changes in wind \r\npatterns and increased ice-shelf melt. Western boundary currents \r\nand subtropical gyres have shifted poleward since 1993 (medium \r\nconfidence). Subtropical gyres, the East Australian Current Extension, \r\nthe Agulhas Current, and the Brazil Current are projected to intensify \r\nin the 21st century in response to changes in wind stress, while the \r\nGulf Stream and the Indonesian Throughflow are projected to weaken \r\n(medium confidence). All of the four main eastern boundary upwelling \r\nsystems are projected to weaken at low latitudes and intensify at high \r\nlatitudes in the 21st century (high confidence). {2.3.3, 9.2.3}"


id: 74772cfec6235ec7f2d0e9efa8356fc3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15921
content:
"become practically sea ice-free in late summer under high \r\nCO2 emissions scenarios by the end of the 21st century (high \r\nconfidence). It is virtually certain that further warming will \r\nlead to further reductions of Northern Hemisphere snow \r\ncover, and there is high confidence that this is also the case \r\nfor near-surface permafrost volume. "


id: a06196f162c06e0e9bac78beca93f2e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22770
content:
"Glaciers will continue to lose mass at least for several \r\ndecades even if global temperature is stabilized (very \r\nhigh confidence), and mass loss over the 21st century \r\nis virtually certain for the Greenland Ice Sheet and likely\r\nfor the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Deep uncertainty persists with \r\nrespect to the possible evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet \r\nwithin the 21st century and beyond, in particular due to the \r\npotential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. {2.3, \r\n3.4, 4.3, 8.3, 9.3-9.6, Box 9.4, 12.4}"


id: 6cc23f5dbffb5252bd99c1d8301d3d78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14723
content:
"Open-ocean deoxygenation and expansion of oxygen minimum zones \r\nhave been observed in many areas of the global ocean since the \r\nmid 20th century (high confidence), in part due to human influence \r\n(medium confidence). Deoxygenation is projected to continue to \r\nincrease with ocean warming (high confidence) (Figure TS.11c).\r\nHigher climate sensitivity and reduced ocean ventilation in CMIP6 \r\ncompared to CMIP5 results in substantially greater projections of\r\nsubsurface (100-600 m) oxygen decline than reported in SROCC for \r\nthe period 2080-2099. {2.3.3, 2.3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 2.4, 3.6.2, \r\n5.3.3, 12.4.8}"


id: 3bde02bca8807ace72ead3c1732f84e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6782
content:
"Over at least the last two decades, the geographic range of many \r\nmarine organisms has shifted towards the poles and towards greater \r\ndepths (high confidence), indicative of shifts towards cooler waters. \r\nThe range of a smaller subset of organisms has shifted equatorward \r\nand to shallower depths (high confidence). Phenological metrics \r\nassociated with the life cycles of many organisms have also \r\nchanged over the last two decades or longer (high confidence). \r\nSince the changes in the geographical range of organisms and their \r\nphenological metrics have been observed to differ with species \r\nand location, there is the possibility of disruption to major marine \r\necosystems. {2.3.4}"


id: bb2ae641e09cee3e0ecd719fdc3cac96
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26989
content:
"For Antarctic sea ice, there is no significant trend in satellite-observed \r\nsea ice area from 1979 to 2020 in both winter and summer, due to \r\nregionally opposing trends and large internal variability. Due to \r\nmismatches between model simulations and observations, combined \r\nwith a lack of understanding of reasons for substantial inter-model \r\nspread, there is low confidence in model projections of future Antarctic \r\nsea ice changes, particularly at the regional level. {2.3.2, 3.4.1, 9.3.2}"


id: ef8ace48d06b9881f35cd994a2b1bc8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35180
content:
"Over recent decades, widespread loss of snow and ice has \r\nbeen observed, and several elements of the cryosphere \r\nare now in states unseen in centuries (high confidence). \r\nHuman influence was very likely the main driver of \r\nobserved reductions in Arctic sea ice since the late 1970s \r\n(with late-summer sea ice loss likely unprecedented for at \r\nleast 1000 years) and the widespread retreat of glaciers \r\n(unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years, medium \r\nconfidence). Furthermore, human influence very likely \r\ncontributed to the observed Northern Hemisphere spring \r\nsnow cover decrease since 1950. "


id: 7404d91b6417925acf9111fe065cd7c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15855
content:
"In permafrost regions, increases in ground temperatures in the upper \r\n30 m over the past three to four decades have been widespread (high \r\nconfidence). For each additional 1degC of warming (up to 4degC above the \r\n1850-1900 level), the global volume of perennially frozen ground to \r\n3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative \r\nto the present volume (medium confidence). However, these decreases \r\nmay be underestimated due to an incomplete representation of \r\nrelevant physical processes in ESMs (low confidence). Seasonal snow \r\ncover is treated in Section TS.2.6. {2.3.2, 9.5.2, 12.4.9}"


id: 2b88d97a51ce5b4055f88541856059cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4287
content:
"By contrast, Antarctic sea ice area experienced no significant \r\nnet change since 1979, and there is only low confidence \r\nin its projected changes. The Arctic Ocean is projected to "


id: 525b181bea5d9ae6a5e6329dfdf23629
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10413
content:
"confidence). Mountain glaciers very likely contributed 67.2 [41.8 to \r\n92.6] mm to the observed GMSL change between 1901 and 2018. \r\nThis retreat has occurred at increased rates since the 1990s, with \r\nhuman influence very likely being the main driver. Under RCP2.6 and \r\nRCP8.5, respectively, glaciers are projected to lose 18% +- 13% and \r\n36% +- 20% of their current mass over the 21st century (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3.2, 3.4.3, 9.5.1, 9.6.1}"


id: 83509de23554d963b884949ea5e3e451
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18184
content:
"of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, is assessed in Box TS.9. {2.3.2, 3.4.3, 9.4.1, \r\n9.4.2, 9.6.3, Atlas.11.2}"


id: ed9d3fd713823d009ab87799e55f7e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34850
content:
"GMSL change is driven by warming or cooling of the ocean (and the associated expansion/contraction) and changes in the amount \r\nof ice and water stored on land. Paleo-evidence shows that GMSL has been about 70 m higher and 130 m lower than present within \r\nthe past 55 million years and was likely 5 to 10 m higher during the Last Interglacial (Box TS.2, Figure 1). Sea level observations show \r\nthat GMSL rose by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m over the period 1901-2018 at an average rate of 1.7 [1.3 to 2.2] mm yr -1. New analyses \r\nand paleo-evidence since AR5 show this rate is very likely faster than during any century over at least the last three millennia (high \r\nconfidence). Since AR5, there is strengthened evidence for an increase in the rate of GMSL rise since the mid-20th century, with an \r\naverage rate of 2.3 [1.6-3.1] mm yr -1 over the period 1971-2018 increasing to 3.7 [3.2-4.2] mm yr -1 for the period 2006-2018 (high \r\nconfidence). {2.3.3, 9.6.1, 9.6.2}"


id: 4e00eae1c27faf44054f51ad4d66bfee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9694
content:
"GMSL will continue to rise throughout the 21st century (Box TS.4, Figure 1a). Considering only those processes in whose projections \r\nwe have at least medium confidence, relative to the period 1995-2014, GMSL is projected to rise between 0.18 m (0.15-0.23 m, \r\nlikely range; SSP1-1.9) and 0.23 m (0.20-0.30 m, likely range; SSP5-8.5) by 2050. By 2100, the projected rise is between 0.38 m \r\n(0.28-0.55 m, likely range; SSP1-1.9) and 0.77 m (0.63-1.01 m, likely range; SSP5-8.5) {Table 9.9}. The methods, models and scenarios \r\nused for sea level projections in the AR6 are updated from those employed by SROCC, with contributions informed by the latest \r\nmodel projections described in the ocean and cryosphere Sections (Sections TS.2.4 and TS.2.5). Despite these differences, the sea level \r\nprojections are broadly consistent with those of SROCC. {4.3.2, 9.6.3}"


id: 29435c490b52f75448843783f55bfb3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3929
content:
"Importantly, likely range projections do not include those ice-sheet-related processes whose quantification is highly uncertain \r\nor that are characterized by deep uncertainty. Higher amounts of GMSL rise before 2100 could be caused by earlier-than-projected \r\ndisintegration of marine ice shelves, the abrupt, widespread onset of marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and marine ice cliff instability \r\n(MICI) around Antarctica, and faster-than-projected changes in the surface mass balance and dynamical ice loss from Greenland \r\n(Box TS.4, Figure 1). In a low-likelihood, high-impact storyline and a high CO2 emissions scenario, such processes could in combination \r\ncontribute more than one additional meter of sea level rise by 2100 (Box TS.3). {4.3.2, 9.6.3, Box 9.4}"


id: 5d33855fba94753b3c23e19b4b492342
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12179
content:
"Looking at uncertainty in time provides an alternative perspective on uncertainty in future sea level rise (Box TS.4, Figure 1c). For \r\nexample, considering only medium confidence processes, GMSL rise is likely to exceed 0.5 m between about 2080 and 2170 under \r\nSSP1-2.6 and between about 2070 and 2090 under SSP5-8.5. Given the long-term commitment, uncertainty in the timing of reaching \r\ndifferent levels of GMSL rise is an important consideration for adaptation planning. {9.6.3}"


id: d02d069c5b89b33aad7b5db2362845b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30285
content:
"At regional scales, additional processes come into play that modify the local sea level change relative to GMSL, including vertical land \r\nmotion, ocean circulation and density changes, and gravitational, rotational, and deformational effects arising from the redistribution \r\nof water and ice mass between land and the ocean. These processes give rise to a spatial pattern that tends to increase sea level \r\nrise at the low latitudes and reduce sea level rise at high latitudes. However, over the 21st century, the majority of coastal locations \r\nhave a median projected regional sea level rise within +-20% of the projected GMSL change (medium confidence). Further details on \r\nregional sea level change and extremes are provided in Section TS.4. {9.6.3}"


id: da273b224c33c2647312fa56a8380627
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31848
content:
"The continued growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the industrial era is unequivocally due to emissions from \r\nhuman activities. Ocean and land carbon sinks slow the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Projections show that while \r\nland and ocean sinks absorb more CO2 under high emissions scenarios than low emissions scenarios, the fraction of \r\nemissions removed from the atmosphere by natural sinks decreases with higher concentrations (high confidence). \r\nProjected ocean and land sinks show similar responses for a given scenario, but the land sink has a much higher \r\ninterannual variability and wider model spread. The slowed growth rates of the carbon sinks projected for the second \r\nhalf of this century are linked to strengthening carbon-climate feedbacks and stabilization of atmospheric CO2 under \r\nmedium-to-no-mitigation and high-mitigation scenarios, respectively (see FAQ 5.1). {5.2, 5.4}"


id: 6054120579188c03620c074de21ab70f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12730
content:
"Carbon sinks for anthropogenic CO2 are associated with mainly physical ocean and biospheric land processes that drive the exchange \r\nof carbon between multiple land, ocean and atmospheric reservoirs. These exchanges are driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, but \r\nare modulated by changes in climate (Box TS.5, Figure 1c,d). The Northern and Southern Hemispheres dominate the land and ocean \r\nsinks, respectively (Box TS.5, Figure 1). Ocean circulation and thermodynamic processes also play a critical role in coupling the global \r\ncarbon and energy (heat) cycles. There is high confidence that this ocean carbon-heat nexus is an important basis for one of the \r\nmost important carbon-climate metrics, the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE; Section TS.3.2.1) used to \r\ndetermine the remaining carbon budget. {5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


id: 9e5e6afc65f726ded2490d4ad0a41113
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22443
content:
"The ocean (high confidence) and land (medium confidence) sinks of CO2 have increased with anthropogenic emissions over the past \r\nsix decades (Box TS.5, Figure 1). This coherence between emissions and the growth in ocean and land sinks has resulted in the airborne \r\nfraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining at 44 +- 10% over the past 60 years (high confidence). Interannual and decadal variability of \r\nthe ocean and land sinks indicate that they are sensitive to changes in the growth rate of emissions as well as climate variability and \r\nare therefore also sensitive to climate change (high confidence). {5.2.1}"


id: 4bbf5612fd53b6833b2e73d44d7406ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9334
content:
"The land CO2 sink is driven by carbon uptake by vegetation, with large interannual variability, for example, linked to the El Nino-\r\nSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). Since the 1980s, carbon fertilization from rising atmospheric CO2 has increased the strength of the net \r\nland CO2 sink (medium confidence). During the historical period, the growth of the ocean sink has been primarily determined by \r\nthe growth rate of atmospheric CO2. However, there is medium confidence that changes to physical and chemical processes in the \r\nocean and in the land biosphere, which govern carbon feedbacks, are already modifying the characteristics of variability, particularly \r\nthe seasonal cycle of CO2, in both the ocean and land. However, changes to the multi-decadal trends in the sinks have not yet been \r\nobserved. {2.3.4, 3.6.1, 5.2.1}"


id: b711e20217ed4c4d115b0fdf36d63854
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26332
content:
"Climate change alone is expected to increase land carbon accumulation in the high latitudes (not including permafrost, which is \r\nassessed in Sections TS.2.5 and TS.3.2.2), but also to lead to a counteracting loss of land carbon in the tropics (medium confidence). \r\nEarth system model projections show that the overall uncertainty of atmospheric CO2 by 2100 is still dominated by the emissions \r\npathway, but carbon-climate feedbacks (see Section TS.3.3.2) are important, with increasing uncertainties in high emissions pathways \r\n(Box TS.5, Figure 1e). {4.3.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.4.4, 5.4.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


id: 3379f504f8dfb7812435adb4b6b8ca68
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5517
content:
"Under three SSP scenarios with long-term extensions until 2300 (SSP5-8.5, SSP5-3.4-OS, SSP1-2.6), ESMs project a change of the \r\nland from a sink to a source (medium confidence). The scenarios make simplified assumptions about emissions reductions, with \r\nSSP1-2.6 and SSP5-3.4-OS reaching about 400 ppm by 2300, while SSP5-8.5 exceeds 2000 ppm. Under high emissions, the transition \r\nis warming-driven, whereas it is linked to the decline in atmospheric CO2 under net negative CO2 emissions. The ocean remains a sink \r\nthroughout the period to 2300 except under very large net negative emissions. The response of the natural aspects of the carbon cycle \r\nto carbon dioxide removal is further developed in Section TS.3.3.2. {5.4.9}"


id: 70e7c83be77ff952f66be6d810714257
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15398
content:
"and about 80% larger than warming of the ocean surface. Warming of \r\nthe land surface during the period 1971-2018 contributed about 5% \r\nof the increase in the global energy inventory (Section TS.3.1), nearly \r\ntwice the estimate in AR5 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that \r\nthe average surface warming over land will continue to be higher than \r\nover the ocean throughout the 21st century. The warming pattern \r\nwill likely vary seasonally, with northern high latitudes warming more \r\nduring winter than summer (medium confidence). {2.3.1, 4.3.1, 4.5.1, \r\n7.2.2, Box 7.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9.1, 11.3, Atlas 11.2}"


id: 4771e787d37a69e22a152c5230996864
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 8626
content:
"Land surface air temperatures have risen faster than the \r\nglobal surface temperature since the 1850s, and it is virtually \r\ncertain that this differential warming will persist into the \r\nfuture. It is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity \r\nof hot extremes and the intensity and duration of heatwaves \r\nhave increased since 1950 and will further increase in the \r\nfuture even if global warming is stabilized at 1.5degC. The \r\nfrequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have \r\nincreased over a majority of those land regions with good \r\nobservational coverage (high confidence) and will extremely \r\nlikely increase over most land regions with additional global \r\nwarming. "


id: bf23dc1e3c2885054bef7fa69c80eac8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27625
content:
"The frequency and intensity of hot extremes (warm days and nights) \r\nand the intensity and duration of heatwaves have increased globally \r\nand in most regions since 1950, while the frequency and intensity \r\nof cold extremes have decreased (virtually certain). There is high \r\nconfidence that the increases in frequency and severity of hot \r\nextremes are due to human-induced climate change. Some recent \r\nextreme events would have been extremely unlikely to occur without \r\nhuman influence on the climate system. It is virtually certain that \r\nfurther changes in hot and cold extremes will occur throughout the \r\n21st century in nearly all inhabited regions, even if global warming \r\nis stabilized at 1.5degC (Table TS.2, Figure TS.12a). {1.3, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 3.2, 11.1.4, 11.3.2, 11.3.4, 11.3.5, 11.9, 12.4}"


id: 53e23df73575493fb46273a04428667d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10663
content:
"Over the past half century, key aspects of the biosphere \r\nhave changed in ways that are consistent with large\u0002scale warming: climate zones have shifted poleward, and \r\nthe growing season length in the Northern Hemisphere \r\nextratropics has increased (high confidence). The amplitude \r\nof the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 poleward of 45degN \r\nhas increased since the 1960s (very high confidence), with \r\nincreasing productivity of the land biosphere due to the \r\nincreasing atmospheric CO2 concentration as the main driver \r\n(medium confidence). Global-scale vegetation greenness has \r\nincreased since the 1980s (high confidence). {2.3, 3.6, 4.3, \r\n4.5, 5.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.9, 12.4}"


id: 6d78dd8f37a0c9db281c52c5dc5d1a58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14833
content:
"Greater warming over land alters key water cycle characteristics \r\n(Box TS.6). The rates of change in mean precipitation and runoff, \r\nand their variability, increase with global warming (Figure TS.12e,f). \r\nHuman-induced climate change has contributed to increases in \r\nagricultural and ecological droughts in some regions due to increases \r\nin evapotranspiration (medium confidence). More regions are \r\naffected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with \r\nincreasing global warming (high confidence; see also Figure TS.12c). "


id: 792f2e7edb2b39e7af78bb9a2a1f04b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16631
content:
"Observed temperatures over land have increased by 1.59 [1.34-\r\n1.83] degC between the period 1850-1900 and 2011-2020. Warming \r\nof the land is about 45% larger than for global surface temperature "


id: 253093ed0c1ff91bb68ebc85d3a5ee07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3284
content:
"There is low confidence that the increase of plant water-use efficiency \r\ndue to higher atmospheric CO2 concentration alleviates extreme \r\nagricultural and ecological droughts in conditions characterized \r\nby limited soil moisture and increased atmospheric evaporative \r\ndemand. {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box  5.1, 8.2.3, 8.4.1, 11.2.4, 11.4, \r\n11.6, Box 11.1}"


id: 2d68fb8effcb0e08bc786f4756e2c383
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4587
content:
"Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has decreased since at \r\nleast 1978 (very high confidence), and there is high confidence \r\nthat trends in snow cover loss extend back to 1950. It is very likely\r\nthat human influence contributed to these reductions. Earlier onset \r\nof snowmelt has contributed to seasonally dependent changes \r\nin streamflow (high confidence). A further decrease of Northern \r\nHemisphere seasonal snow cover extent is virtually certain under \r\nfurther global warming (Figure TS.12d). {2.3.2, 3.4.2, 8.3.2. 9.5.3, \r\n12.4, 9.2, 11.2, Atlas 8.2}"


id: c9e1a4d186ae9fa262ef4ca010738734
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29316
content:
"The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have \r\nincreased over a majority of land regions with good observational \r\ncoverage since 1950 (high confidence, Box TS.6, Table TS.2). Human \r\ninfluence is likely the main driver of this change (Table TS.2). It is \r\nextremely likely that on most land regions heavy precipitation will \r\nbecome more frequent and more intense with additional global \r\nwarming (Table TS.2, Figure TS.12b). The projected increase in heavy \r\nprecipitation extremes translates to an increase in the frequency and \r\nmagnitude of pluvial floods (high confidence) (Table TS.2). {Cross\u0002Chapter Box 3.2, 8.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.4.4, 11.5.5, 12.4}"


id: 16b81710622cceafe95811fc7a667fe1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1093
content:
"The probability of compound extreme events has likely increased \r\ndue to human-induced climate change. Concurrent heatwaves and \r\ndroughts have become more frequent over the last century, and this \r\ntrend will continue with higher global warming (high confidence). \r\nThe probability of compound flooding (storm surge, extreme \r\nrainfall and/or river flow) has increased in some locations and will \r\ncontinue to increase due to both sea level rise and increases in heavy \r\nprecipitation, including changes in precipitation intensity associated \r\nwith tropical cyclones (high confidence). {11.8.1, 11.8.2, 11.8.3}"


id: 52b8afed5ae2dcd88f610f96362b78e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10474
content:
"Human-caused climate change has driven detectable changes in the global water cycle since the mid-20th century (high \r\nconfidence), and it is projected to cause substantial further changes at both global and regional scales (high confidence). "


id: 8eefc2ae6a7f1d63d4ab57900362a70c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20021
content:
"Global land precipitation has likely increased since 1950, with a faster increase since the 1980s (medium confidence). \r\nAtmospheric water vapour has increased throughout the troposphere since at least the 1980s (likely). Annual global \r\nland precipitation will increase over the 21st century as global surface temperature increases (high confidence). \r\nHuman influence has been detected in amplified surface salinity and precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) patterns \r\nover the ocean (high confidence). "


id: de6b3ac4899d7287a6849e90d4784cd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32492
content:
"The severity of very wet and very dry events increase in a warming climate (high confidence), but changes in \r\natmospheric circulation patterns affect where and how often these extremes occur. Water cycle variability and related \r\nextremes are projected to increase faster than mean changes in most regions of the world and under all emissions \r\nscenarios (high confidence). "


id: c9f32a1990533387dd24482c3c591b72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29325
content:
"Over the 21st century, the total land area subject to drought will increase and droughts will become more frequent \r\nand severe (high confidence). Near-term projected changes in precipitation are uncertain mainly because of internal \r\nvariability, model uncertainty and uncertainty in forcings from natural and anthropogenic aerosols (medium \r\nconfidence). "


id: 61c70cac0f6bb971b93222d28d79ce6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12951
content:
"Over the 21st century and beyond, abrupt human-caused changes to the water cycle cannot be excluded (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3, 3.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9}"


id: ff0810565722a6a999a349bb40cc0dd9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37673
content:
"Land-use change and water extraction for irrigation have influenced local and regional responses in the water cycle (high confidence). \r\nLarge-scale deforestation likely decreases evapotranspiration and precipitation and increases runoff over the deforested regions \r\nrelative to the regional effects of climate change (medium confidence). Urbanization increases local precipitation (medium confidence) \r\nand runoff intensity (high confidence) (Box TS.14). Increased precipitation intensities have enhanced groundwater recharge, most \r\nnotably in tropical regions (medium confidence). There is high confidence that groundwater depletion has occurred since at least the \r\nstart of the 21st century, as a consequence of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation in agricultural areas in drylands. {8.2.3, 8.3.1, \r\n11.1.6, 11.4, 11.6, FAQ 8.1}"


id: 96b64628dccbaae392ef3adef733a58b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21232
content:
"The climate change that people will experience this century and beyond depends on our \r\ngreenhouse gases emissions, how much global warming this will cause and the\r\nresponse of the climate system to this warming."


id: f1140ec603e3c4c71cc46babd2ad21cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35428
content:
"Over short time scales (typically a decade), natural variability can temporarily dampen or accentuate global warming trends \r\nresulting from emissions."


id: 5dcc328e5b3d192b3edcc2c9b5e0d02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12287
content:
"fographic TS.1 | Climate Futures. The intent of this figure is to show possible climate futures: The climate change that people will experience this century and beyond \r\npends on our greenhouse gas emissions, how much global warming this will cause and the response of the climate system to this warming."


id: 1bade65ed4f715ab619947be8a8ed4e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1815
content:
"(top left) Annual emissions of CO2 for the five core Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (very low: SSP1-1.9, low: SSP1-2.6, intermediate: SSP2-4.5, high: SSP3-7.0, \r\nvery high: SSP5-8.5).(bottom left) Projected warming for each of these emissions scenarios."


id: ba117cf079c35e0eab864f889d2cd894
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26817
content:
"Today, sea level has already \r\nincreased by 20 cm and \r\nwill increase an additional \r\n30 cm to 1 m or more by 2100, \r\ndepending on future emissions. "


id: e1cb1229b03a8a6922bfc1f1c4cd584a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33021
content:
"Sea level reacts very slowly to \r\nglobal warming so, once started, \r\nthe rise continues for thousands \r\nof years."


id: 96ce27ba1c9213de9e2c41f5999b76c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21244
content:
"The climate we and the young generations will experience depends on future emissions. \r\nReducing emissions rapidly will limit further changes, but continued emissions will trigger larger, \r\nfaster changes that will increasingly affect all regions. Some changes will persist for hundreds or \r\nthousands of years, so today's choices will have long-lasting consequences."


id: b94aa3c51855c14a4b7953d824e3dde3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26691
content:
"(top right) Response of some selected climate variables to four levels of global warming (degC). Changes in the 'Today' column are based on a global warming level of 1degC.\r\n(bottom right) The long-term effect of each global warming level on sea level. See Section TS.1.3.1 for more detail on the SSP climate change scenarios. \r\nThis infographic builds from several figures in the Technical Summary: Figure TS.4 (for top left panel), Figure TS.6 (bottom left), Figure TS.12 (top right) and Box TS.4, Figure 1b \r\n(bottom right)."


id: 5595bcc022857f918da8a58c1243d284
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10944
content:
"Since AR5, the accumulation of energy in the Earth system, \r\nquantified by observations of warming of the ocean, \r\natmosphere, and land and melting of ice, has become \r\nestablished as a robust measure of the rate of global climate \r\nchange on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Compared to \r\nchanges in global surface temperature, the increase in the \r\nglobal energy inventory exhibits less variability, and thus \r\nbetter indicates underlying climate trends. "


id: 88918af70c05eff3afea52e22f544d7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19018
content:
"This section summarizes advances in our knowledge of Earth's \r\nenergy budget, including the time evolution of forcings and climate \r\nfeedbacks that lead to the climate system responses summarized \r\nin Section TS.2. It assesses advances since AR5 and SR1.5 in the \r\nestimation of remaining carbon budgets, the Earth system response to \r\ncarbon dioxide removal, and the quantification of metrics that allow \r\ncomparisons of the relative effects of different forcing agents. The \r\nsection also highlights: future climate and air pollution responses due \r\nto projected changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs); the state \r\nof understanding of the climate response to potential interventions \r\nrelated to solar radiation modification (SRM); and irreversibility, \r\ntipping points and abrupt changes in the climate system."


id: 98715c84ed97e7f9ef881aad425d5f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21495
content:
"The global energy inventory increased by 282 [177 to \r\n387] zettajoules (ZJ, equal to 1021 Joules) for the period \r\n1971-2006 and 152 [100 to 205] ZJ for the period 2006-\r\n2018 (Figure TS.13), with more than 90% accounted for "


id: e8bd26d205c0f170c4860ed4e67f4cb7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34131
content:
"by ocean warming. To  put these numbers in context, the \r\n2006-2018 average Earth energy imbalance is equivalent \r\nto approximately 20 times the annual rate of global energy \r\nconsumption in 2018. The accumulation of energy is driven \r\nby a positive total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing \r\n(ERF) relative to 1750. "


id: 5242bba7b634bc40f5a1394d0cc04e02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10396
content:
"estimates of the global energy imbalance, and closure of the global \r\nsea level budget have led to a strengthened assessment relative \r\nto AR5. (high confidence) {7.2.2, 7.5.2.3, Box 7.2, Table 7.1, 9.6.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 9.1, Table 9.5}"


id: 323360e4f5bbbf0b0a61ef9c5d1bd7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5309
content:
"As in AR5, the perturbations to Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy \r\nbudget are quantified using ERFs (see also Section TS.2.2). These \r\ninclude any consequent adjustments to the climate system (e.g., \r\nfrom changes in atmospheric temperatures, clouds and water vapour \r\nas shown in Figure TS.14), but exclude any surface temperature \r\nresponse. Since AR5, ERFs have been estimated for a larger number \r\nof forcing agents and shown to be more closely related to the \r\ntemperature response than the stratospheric-temperature-adjusted \r\nradiative forcing. (high confidence) {7.3.1}"


id: e18c34a0d1a8f453b413dd48c9df94ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32976
content:
"Improved quantifications of ERF, the climate system radiative \r\nresponse, and the observed energy increase in the Earth system \r\nfor the period 1971-2018 demonstrate improved closure of the \r\nglobal energy budget relative to AR5 (Figure TS.13). Combining \r\nthe likely range of ERF over this period with the central estimate \r\nof radiative response gives an expected energy gain of 340 [47 to \r\n662] ZJ. Both estimates are consistent with an independent \r\nobservation-based assessment of the global energy increase of \r\n284 [96 to 471] ZJ (very likely range), expressed relative to the \r\nestimated 1850-1900 Earth energy imbalance. (high confidence) \r\n{7.2.2, 7.3.5, Box 7.2}"


id: 1450cf56e0a8387ed2a070b9bf030bc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 709
content:
"The global energy inventory change for the period 1971-2006 \r\ncorresponds to an Earth energy imbalance (Box TS.1) of 0.50 [0.32 \r\nto 0.69] W m-2, increasing to 0.79 [0.52 to 1.06] W m-2 for the period \r\n2006-2018. Ocean heat uptake is by far the largest contribution and \r\naccounts for 91% of the total energy change. Land warming, melting \r\nof ice and warming of the atmosphere account for about 5%, 3% and \r\n1% of the total change, respectively. More comprehensive analysis of \r\ninventory components, cross-validation of satellite and in situ-based "


id: 3dfa4330016eafe06df3d1c64444fd90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7107
content:
"The assessed greenhouse gas ERF over the 1750-2019 period \r\n(Section TS.2.2) has increased by +0.59 W  m-2 over AR5 estimates \r\nfor 1750-2011. This increase includes +0.34 W m-2 from increases in \r\natmospheric concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (including \r\nhalogenated species) since 2011, +0.15 W m-2 from upwards revisions \r\nof their radiative efficiencies and +0.10 W m-2 from re-evaluation of \r\nthe ozone and stratospheric water vapour ERF. {7.3.2, 7.3.4, 7.3.5}"


id: cffd977725ed93f42abef112fa173688
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30250
content:
"Figure TS.14 | Schematic representation of changes in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget following a perturbation. The intent of this figure is to \r\nillustrate the concept of adjustments in the climate system following a perturbation in the radiation budget. The baseline TOA energy budget (a) responds instantaneously to \r\nperturbations (b), leading to adjustments in the atmospheric meteorology and composition and land surface that are independent of changes in surface temperature (c). Surface \r\ntemperature changes (here using an increase as an example) lead to physical, biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedback processes (d). Long-term feedback processes, such \r\nas those involving ice sheets, are not shown here. {adapted from Figure 7.2; FAQ 7.2, Figure 1; and Figure 8.3}"


id: a4bd8b0ea580d38eb497769543d192d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23491
content:
"emissions make the dominant contribution to the ERF from aerosol-\r\ncloud interactions (high confidence). Over the 1750-2019 period, \r\nthe contributions from the emitted compounds to global surface \r\ntemperature changes broadly match their contributions to the ERF \r\n(high confidence) (Figure TS.15b). Since a peak in emissions-induced \r\nSO2 ERF has already occurred recently (Section TS.2.2) and since there \r\nis a delay in the full global surface temperature response owing to \r\nthe thermal inertia in the climate system, changes in SO2 emissions \r\nhave a slightly larger contribution to global surface temperature \r\nchange compared with changes in CO2 emissions, relative to their \r\nrespective contributions to ERF. {6.4.2, 7.3.2}"


id: 510218741f93cbb4af527466632486d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10194
content:
"For CO2, CH4, N2O, and chlorofluorocarbons, there is now evidence to \r\nquantify the effect on ERF of tropospheric adjustments. The assessed \r\nERF for a doubling of CO2 compared to 1750 levels (3.9 +- 0.5 Wm-2) is \r\nlarger than in AR5. For CO2, the adjustments include the physiological \r\neffects on vegetation. The reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases \r\n(CH4, N2O, and halocarbons) cause additional chemical adjustments \r\nto the atmosphere through changes in ozone and aerosols (Figure \r\nTS.15a). The ERF due to CH4 emissions is 1.19 [0.81 to 1.58] W m-2, of \r\nwhich 0.35 [0.16 to 0.54] W m-2 is attributed to chemical adjustments \r\nmainly via ozone. These chemical adjustments also affect the \r\nemissions metrics (Section TS.3.3.3). Changes in sulphur dioxide (SO2) "


id: 841ad24b9be008ff9a9ab824dd5b05c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18320
content:
"evolves and global surface temperature increases, leading to an ECS \r\nthat is higher than was inferred in AR5 based on warming over the \r\ninstrumental record (high confidence). Historical surface temperature \r\nchange since 1870 has shown relatively little warming in several key \r\nregions of positive feedbacks, including the eastern equatorial Pacific \r\nOcean and the Southern Ocean, while showing greater warming \r\nin key regions of negative feedbacks, including the western Pacific \r\nwarm pool. Based on process understanding, climate modelling, and \r\npaleoclimate reconstructions of past warm periods, it is expected \r\nthat future warming will become enhanced over the eastern Pacific \r\nOcean (medium confidence) and Southern Ocean (high confidence) \r\non centennial time scales. This new understanding, along with \r\nupdated estimates of historical temperature change, ERF, and energy \r\nimbalance, reconciles previously disparate ECS estimates. {7.4.4, \r\n7.5.2, 7.5.3}"


id: caa759554760b4781b5e74041f5623e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29445
content:
"The AR6 best estimate of ECS is 3degC, the likely range is 2.5degC to \r\n4degC and the very likely range is 2degC to 5degC. There is a high level \r\nof agreement among the four main lines of evidence listed above \r\n(Figure TS.16b), and altogether it is virtually certain that ECS is larger \r\nthan 1.5degC, but currently it is not possible to rule out ECS values \r\nabove 5degC. Therefore, the 5degC upper end of the very likely range is \r\nassessed with medium confidence and the other bounds with high \r\nconfidence. {7.5.5}"


id: 2cc83431af5fae8d830f0a6e0abdd83a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4480
content:
"Since AR5, substantial quantitative progress has been \r\nmade in combining new evidence of Earth's climate \r\nsensitivity with improvements in the understanding and \r\nquantification of Earth's energy imbalance, the instrumental \r\nrecord of global surface temperature change, paleoclimate \r\nchange from proxy records, climate feedbacks and their \r\ndependence on time scale and climate state. A key advance \r\nis the broad agreement across these multiple lines of \r\nevidence, supporting a best estimate of equilibrium climate \r\nsensitivity of 3degC, with a very likely range of 2degC to 5degC. The \r\nlikely range of 2.5degC to 4degC is narrower than the AR5 likely \r\nrange of 1.5degC to 4.5degC. {7.4, 7.5}"


id: b28a0e388b62ed573e0bfbeb2d9b91a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25609
content:
"Based on process understanding, warming over the instrumental \r\nrecord, and emergent constraints, the best estimate of TCR is 1.8degC, \r\nthe likely range is 1.4degC to 2.2degC and the very likely range is 1.2degC to \r\n2.4degC. There is a high level of agreement among the different lines of \r\nevidence (Figure TS.16c) (high confidence). {7.5.5}"


id: ba20d4b125584990f7b4ef83860e2c0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26825
content:
"Constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient \r\nclimate response (TCR) (see Glossary) are based on four main lines \r\nof evidence: feedback process understanding, climate change and \r\nvariability seen within the instrumental record, paleoclimate evidence, \r\nand so-called 'emergent constraints', whereby a relationship \r\nbetween an observable quantity and either ECS or TCR established \r\nwithin an ensemble of models is combined with observations to \r\nderive a constraint on ECS or TCR. In reports up to and including \r\nthe IPCC Third Assessment Report, ECS and TCR derived directly \r\nfrom ESMs were the primary line of evidence. However, since AR4, \r\nhistorical warming and paleoclimates provided useful additional \r\nevidence (Figure TS.16a). This Report differs from previous reports in \r\nnot directly using climate model estimates of ECS and TCR in the \r\nassessed ranges of climate sensitivity. {1.5, 7.5}"


id: e78110d07519af20858885fddecadff7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33920
content:
"Uncertainties regarding the true value of ECS and TCR are the dominant \r\nsource of uncertainty in global temperature projections over the \r\n21st century under moderate to high GHG concentrations scenarios. \r\nFor scenarios that reach net zero CO2 emissions (Section TS.3.3), the \r\nuncertainty in the ERF values of aerosol and other SLCFs contribute \r\nsubstantial uncertainty in projected temperature. Global ocean heat \r\nuptake is a smaller source of uncertainty in centennial warming. {7.5.7}"


id: 23dc25549ce7068f817aad6bb57d6400
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3082
content:
"It is now clear that when estimating ECS and TCR, the dependence \r\nof feedbacks on time scales and the climate state must be accounted \r\nfor. Feedback processes are expected to become more positive \r\noverall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on \r\nmulti-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming "


id: 33ac3a63f3878bd5c7dbe7cb0a58238f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5548
content:
"of TCR. Beyond this century, there is low confidence that the TCRE \r\nalone remains an accurate predictor of temperature changes in \r\nscenarios of very low or net negative CO2 emissions because of \r\nuncertain Earth system feedbacks that can result in further changes \r\nin temperature or a path dependency of warming as a function of \r\ncumulative CO2 emissions. {4.6.2, 5.4, 5.5.1}"


id: f1f324516e5de8f0ecb231ddbc387d33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35589
content:
"The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) \r\nis the ratio between globally averaged surface temperature increase \r\nand cumulative CO2 emissions (see Glossary). This Report reaffirms \r\nwith high confidence the finding of AR5 that there is a near-linear \r\nrelationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and the increase in \r\nglobal average temperature caused by CO2 over the course of this \r\ncentury for global warming levels up to at least 2degC relative to 1850-\r\n1900. The TCRE falls likely in the 1.0degC-2.3degC per 1000 PgC range, \r\nwith a best estimate of 1.65degC per 1000 PgC. This is equivalent to a \r\n0.27degC-0.63degC range with a best estimate of 0.45degC when expressed \r\nin units per 1000 GtCO2. This range is about 15% narrower than the \r\n0.8deg-2.5degC per 1000 PgC assessment of AR5 because of a better \r\nintegration of evidence across chapters, in particular the assessment "


id: ada80b0505edda1f104334c64ddb75ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24858
content:
"The combined effect of all climate feedback processes is to amplify \r\nthe climate response to forcing (virtually certain). While major \r\nadvances in the understanding of cloud processes have increased \r\nthe level of confidence and decreased the uncertainty range for the "


id: 98f517e72f98b0299bc91da0fefa6537
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21579
content:
"cloud feedback by about 50% compared to AR5, clouds remain the \r\nlargest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks (high \r\nconfidence). Uncertainties in the ECS and other climate sensitivity \r\nmetrics, such as the TCR and TCRE, are the dominant source of \r\nuncertainty in global temperature projections over the 21st century \r\nunder moderate to high GHG emissions scenarios. CMIP6 models \r\nhave higher mean values and wider spreads in ECS and TCR than the \r\nassessed best estimates and very likely ranges within this Report, \r\nleading the models to project a range of future warming that is \r\nwider than the assessed future warming range (Section TS.2.2). {7.1, \r\n7.4.2, 7.5}"


id: 579916130db6ab3dae6d10c642683da9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11277
content:
"Natural sources and sinks of non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as \r\nmethane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) respond both directly and \r\nindirectly to atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change, \r\nand thereby give rise to additional biogeochemical feedbacks \r\nin the climate system. Many of these feedbacks are only partially \r\nunderstood and are not yet fully included in ESMs. There is medium \r\nconfidence that the net response of natural ocean and land CH4 and \r\nN2O sources to future warming will be increased emissions, but the \r\nmagnitude and timing of the responses of each individual process is \r\nknown with low confidence. {5.4.7}"


id: ef7398c8d72c43045d34c737fba947ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35159
content:
"Non-CO2 biogeochemical feedbacks induced from changes in \r\nemissions, abundances or lifetimes of SLCFs mediated by natural \r\nprocesses or atmospheric chemistry are assessed to decrease \r\nECS (Figure TS.17b). These non-CO2 biogeochemical feedbacks \r\nare estimated from ESMs, which since AR5 have advanced to \r\ninclude a consistent representation of biogeochemical cycles and \r\natmospheric chemistry. However, process-level understanding \r\nof many biogeochemical feedbacks involving SLCFs, particularly \r\nnatural emissions, is still emerging, resulting in low confidence in \r\nthe magnitude and sign of the feedbacks. The central estimate of \r\nthe total biogeophysical and non-CO2 biogeochemical feedback is \r\nassessed to be -0.01 [-0.27 to +0.25] W m-2 degC-1 (Figure TS.17a). \r\n{5.4.7, 5.4.8, 6.2.2, 6.4.5, 7.4, Table 7.10}"


id: 2fc6468fc398f0ef1ed3ebbd05f85ea9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4940
content:
"The carbon cycle provides for additional feedbacks on climate owing \r\nto the sensitivity of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon \r\nfluxes and storage to changes in climate and in atmospheric CO2\r\n(Figure TS.17c). Because of the time scales associated with land and \r\nocean carbon uptake, these feedbacks are known to be scenario \r\ndependent. Feedback estimates deviate from linearity in scenarios \r\nof stabilizing or reducing concentrations. With high confidence, \r\nincreased atmospheric CO2 will lead to increased land and ocean \r\ncarbon uptake, acting as a negative feedback on climate change. It \r\nis likely that a warmer climate will lead to reduced land and ocean \r\ncarbon uptake, acting as a positive feedback (Box TS.5). {4.3.2, \r\n5.4.1-5}"


id: 267dcb49e02ec7e79476d24027bd0c94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3464
content:
"The near-linear relationship between cumulative CO2\r\nemissions and maximum global surface temperature increase \r\ncaused by CO2 implies that stabilizing human-induced global \r\ntemperature increase at any level requires net anthropogenic \r\nCO2 emissions to become zero. This near-linear relationship \r\nfurther implies that mitigation requirements for limiting \r\nwarming to specific levels can be quantified in terms of a \r\ncarbon budget (high confidence). Remaining carbon budget \r\nestimates have been updated since AR5 with methodological \r\nimprovements, resulting in larger estimates that are \r\nconsistent with SR1.5. Several factors, including estimates \r\nof historical warming, future emissions from thawing \r\npermafrost, variations in projected non-CO2 warming, and \r\nthe global surface temperature change after cessation of \r\nCO2 emissions, affect the exact value of carbon budgets (high \r\nconfidence). {1.3.5, Box 1.2, 4.7.1, 5.5}"


id: d4b6feb38413891bd26909fb38c589ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30992
content:
"but they may vary by an estimated +-220 GtCO2 depending on \r\nhow deeply future non-CO2 emissions are assumed to be reduced \r\n(Table TS.3). {5.5.2, 5.6, Box 5.2, 7.6}"


id: 6f28261d4397f2ee4a0c5b128127d34e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15116
content:
"There is high confidence that several factors, including estimates of \r\nhistorical warming, future emissions from thawing permafrost, and \r\nvariations in projected non-CO2 warming, affect the value of carbon \r\nbudgets but do not change the conclusion that global CO2 emissions \r\nwould need to decline to net zero to halt global warming. Estimates \r\nmay vary by +-220 GtCO2 depending on the level of non-CO2 emissions \r\nat the time global anthropogenic CO2 emissions reach net zero levels. \r\nThis variation is referred to as non-CO2 scenario uncertainty and \r\nwill be further assessed in the AR6 Working Group III Contribution. \r\nGeophysical uncertainties surrounding the climate response to these \r\nnon-CO2 emissions result in an additional uncertainty of at least \r\n+-220  GtCO2, and uncertainties in the level of historical warming \r\nresult in a +-550 GtCO2 uncertainty. {5.4, 5.5.2}"


id: 55e733cbce94be6bbb6f8a67134cc452
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10998
content:
"Table TS.3 | Estimates of remaining carbon budgets and their uncertainties. Assessed estimates are provided for additional human-induced warming, expressed as \r\nglobal surface temperature, since the recent past (2010-2019), likely amounted to 0.8deg to 1.3degC with a best estimate of 1.07degC relative to 1850-1900. Historical CO2 emissions \r\nbetween 1850 and 2014 have been estimated at about 2180 +- 240 GtCO2 (1-sigma range), while since 1 January 2015, an additional 210 GtCO2 has been emitted until the \r\nend of 2019. GtCO2 values to the nearest 50. {Table 3.1, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.2, Table 5.1, Table 5.7, Table 5.8}"


id: d94123eccd87acb975c025757fad4dd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31690
content:
"a\r\n Human-induced global surface temperature increase between 1850-1900 and 2010-2019 is assessed at 0.8-1.3degC (likely range; Cross-Section Box TS.1) with a best estimate \r\nof 1.07degC. Combined with a central estimate of TCRE (1.65degC per 1000 PgC) this uncertainty in isolation results in a potential variation of remaining carbon budgets of +-550 \r\nGtCO2, which, however, is not independent of the assessed uncertainty of TCRE and thus not fully additional."


id: f58269ce71d680916d8129ada0449a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36147
content:
"b\r\n TCRE: transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide, assessed to fall likely between 1.0-2.3degC per 1000 PgC with a normal distribution, from which \r\nthe percentiles are taken. Additional Earth system feedbacks are included in the remaining carbon budget estimates as discussed in Section 5.5.2.2.5."


id: 2b73fb14da43383ec3b0a0bd12aef8f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4277
content:
"c\r\n Estimates assume that non-CO2 emissions are mitigated consistent with the median reductions found in scenarios in the literature as assessed in SR1.5. Non-CO2 scenario \r\nvariations indicate how much remaining carbon budget estimates vary due to different scenario assumptions related to the future evolution of non-CO2 emissions in mitigation \r\nscenarios from SR1.5 that reach net zero CO2 emissions. This variation is additional to the uncertainty in TCRE. The Working Group III Contribution to AR6 will reassess the \r\npotential for non-CO2 mitigation based on literature since SR1.5."


id: 9765f2838c165bf0c4882b5955efc57
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21348
content:
"d\r\n Geophysical uncertainties reported in these columns and TCRE uncertainty are not statistically independent, as uncertainty in TCRE depends on uncertainty in the assessment \r\nof historical temperature, non-CO2 versus CO2 forcing, and uncertainty in emissions estimates. These estimates cannot be formally combined, and these uncertainty variations \r\nare not directly additional to the spread of remaining carbon budgets due to TCRE uncertainty reported in columns three to seven.\r\ne\r\n Recent emissions uncertainty reflects the +-10% uncertainty in the historical CO2 emissions estimate since 1 January 2015."


id: e6010a6e0e4534c5adcd849e2996269f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33678
content:
"to be removed to compensate for an emission of a given \r\nmagnitude to attain the same change in atmospheric CO2\r\n(medium confidence). CDR methods have wide-ranging side\u0002effects that can either weaken or strengthen the carbon \r\nsequestration and cooling potential of these methods and \r\naffect the achievement of sustainable development goals \r\n(high confidence). {4.6.3, 5.6}"


id: a844cc2cf6d4dd4b17dff36f99ef2e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24000
content:
"Based on idealized model simulations that explore the climate \r\nresponse once CO2 emissions have been brought to zero, the \r\nmagnitude of the zero CO2 emissions commitment (ZEC, see Glossary) \r\nis assessed to be likely smaller than 0.3degC for time scales of about \r\nhalf a century and cumulative CO2 emissions broadly consistent with \r\nglobal warming of 2degC. However, there is low confidence about its \r\nsign on time scales of about half a century. For lower cumulative CO2\r\nemissions, the range would be smaller yet with equal uncertainty \r\nabout the sign. If the ZEC is positive on decadal time scales, additional \r\nwarming leads to a reduction in the estimates of remaining carbon \r\nbudgets, and vice versa if it is negative. {4.7.1, 5.5.2}"


id: 3bc7fab0ba67768205b2cbe19416e5cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6762
content:
"Permafrost thaw is included in estimates together with other \r\nfeedbacks that are often not captured by models. Limitations in \r\nmodelling studies combined with weak observational constraints \r\nonly allow low confidence in the magnitude of these estimates \r\n(Section TS.3.2.2). Despite the large uncertainties surrounding the \r\nquantification of the effect of additional Earth system feedback \r\nprocesses, such as emissions from wetlands and permafrost thaw, \r\nthese feedbacks represent identified additional risk factors that \r\nscale with additional warming and mostly increase the challenge of \r\nlimiting warming to specific temperature levels. These uncertainties \r\ndo not change the basic conclusion that global CO2 emissions would \r\nneed to decline to net zero to halt global warming. {5.4.8, 5.5.2, \r\nBox 5.1}"


id: 4f902786ed9351c4cc5cd10e2b9b1e95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9951
content:
"Due to non-linearities in the climate system, the century-scale \r\nclimate-carbon cycle response to a CO2 removal from the atmosphere \r\nis not always equal and opposite to its response to a simultaneous \r\nCO2 emission (medium confidence). For CO2 emissions of 100 PgC \r\nreleased from a state in equilibrium with pre-industrial atmospheric \r\nCO2 levels, CMIP6 models simulate that 27+- 6% (mean +- 1 standard \r\ndeviation) of emissions remain in the atmosphere 80-100 years \r\nafter the emissions, whereas for removals of 100 PgC only 23 \r\n+- 6% of removals remain out of the atmosphere. This asymmetry \r\nimplies that an extra amount of CDR is required to compensate for \r\na positive emission of a given magnitude to attain the same change \r\nin atmospheric CO2. Due to low agreement between models, there "


id: 41576da4a6edac2b23b7df6e04616489
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7678
content:
"Deliberate carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the \r\natmosphere has the potential to compensate for residual \r\nCO2 emissions to reach net zero CO2 emissions or to \r\ngenerate net negative CO2 emissions. In the same way \r\nthat part of current anthropogenic net CO2 emissions \r\nare taken up by land and ocean carbon stores, net CO2\r\nremoval will be partially counteracted by CO2 release from \r\nthese stores (very high confidence). Asymmetry in the \r\ncarbon cycle response to simultaneous CO2 emissions and \r\nremovals implies that a larger amount of CO2 would need "


id: 567b8c48bebb72165c150f3368cb114a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11083
content:
"is low confidence in the sign of the asymmetry of the temperature \r\nresponse to CO2 emissions and removals. {4.6.3, 5.6.2.1, Figure 5.35}"


id: 6e3dcd570689d614ed43bc45cfe6a1c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14965
content:
"When including other GHGs, the choice of emissions metric \r\naffects the quantification of net zero GHG emissions and \r\ntheir resulting temperature outcome (high confidence). \r\nReaching and sustaining net zero GHG emissions typically \r\nleads to a peak and decline in temperatures when \r\nquantified with the global warming potential over a 100-\r\nyear period (GWP-100). Carbon-cycle responses are more \r\nrobustly accounted for in emissions metrics compared to \r\nAR5 (high confidence). New emissions metric approaches \r\ncan be used to generate equivalent cumulative emissions \r\nof CO2 for short-lived greenhouse gases based on their rate \r\nof emissions. {7.6.2}"


id: 12df129df264383bf9041c9db8fe9ac1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 473
content:
"Over 10- to 20-year time scales, the temperature response \r\nto a single year's worth of current emissions of short\u0002lived climate forcers (SLCFs) is at least as large as that of \r\nCO2, but because the effects of SLCFs decay rapidly over \r\nthe first few decades after emission, the net long-term \r\ntemperature response to a single year's worth of emissions \r\nis predominantly determined by cumulative CO2 emissions. "


id: e4729919737fed639bf4bd3a2e996c8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33423
content:
"As pointed out in AR5, ultimately, it is a matter for policymakers \r\nto decide which emissions metric is most applicable to their needs. \r\nThis Report does not recommend the use of any specific emissions \r\nmetric, as the most appropriate metric depends on the policy goal \r\nand context (see Chapter 7, Section 7.6). A detailed assessment of \r\nGHG metrics to support climate change mitigation and associated \r\npolicy contexts is provided in the WGIII contribution to the AR6."


id: 51ca65f4b0c6a0398bf9b8ae58ae87bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 10330
content:
"Emissions reductions in 2020 associated with COVID-19 \r\ncontainment led to small and positive global ERF; however, \r\nglobal and regional climate responses to the forcing are \r\nundetectable above internal variability due to the temporary \r\nnature of emissions reductions. {6.6, Cross-Chapter Box 6.1}"


id: 54a15c4da774d4d4224648a1bcb3704d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10772
content:
"New emissions metric approaches, such as GWP* and Combined\u0002GTP (CGTP), relate changes in the emissions rate of short-lived \r\ngreenhouse gases to equivalent cumulative emissions of CO2\r\n(CO2-e). Global surface temperature response from aggregated \r\nemissions of short-lived greenhouse gases over time is determined \r\nby multiplying these cumulative CO2-e by TCRE (see Section TS.3.2.1). \r\nWhen GHGs are aggregated using standard metrics such as GWP or \r\nGTP, cumulative CO2-e emissions are not necessarily proportional to "


id: b99de6d30b3acba262670330abe35c1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26740
content:
"COVID-19 restrictions led to detectable reductions in global \r\nanthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) (about 35% in \r\nApril 2020) and fossil CO2 (7%, with estimates ranging from 5.8% to \r\n13.0%), driven largely by reduced emissions from the transportation "


id: f9e464a5988897a1aad77e53244496c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36823
content:
"temporarily adding to the total anthropogenic climate influence, \r\nwith positive forcing (warming influence) from aerosol changes \r\ndominating over negative forcings (cooling influence) from CO2, NOx\r\nand contrail cirrus changes. Consistent with this small net radiative \r\nforcing, and against a large component of internal variability, Earth \r\nsystem models show no detectable effect on global or regional \r\nsurface temperature or precipitation (high confidence). {Cross \r\nChapter Box 6.1}"


id: 186a9756e0c6b45699c12d15bee1029b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1337
content:
"sector (medium confidence). There is high confidence that, with \r\nthe exception of surface ozone, reductions in pollutant precursors \r\ncontributed to temporarily improved air quality in most regions of \r\nthe world. However, these reductions were lower than what would \r\nbe expected from sustained implementation of policies addressing \r\nair quality and climate change (medium confidence). Overall, the net \r\nglobal ERF from COVID-19 containment was likely small and positive \r\nfor 2020 (with a temporary peak value less than 0.2 W m-2), thus "


id: 87073c940a53d1afb8d04c6d3d4ea569
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 18773
content:
"Box TS.7 | Climate and Air Quality Responses to Short-lived Climate Forcers in Shared \r\nSocio-economic Pathways"


id: 8ca5a74deab3d072e29b45834da1162a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19646
content:
"Future changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are expected to cause an additional global mean \r\nwarming, with a large diversity in the end-of-century response across the WGI core set of Shared Socio-economic \r\nPathways (SSPs), depending upon the level of climate change and air pollution mitigation (Box TS.7, Figure 1). This \r\nadditional warming is either due to reductions in cooling aerosols for air pollution regulation or due to increases in \r\nmethane (CH4), ozone and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This additional warming is stable after 2040 in SSPs associated \r\nwith lower global air pollution as long as CH4 emissions are also mitigated, but the overall warming induced by SLCF \r\nchanges is higher in scenarios in which air quality continues to deteriorate (induced by growing fossil fuel use and \r\nlimited air pollution control) (high confidence). "


id: d9803508ddbeb7a3f631cdd56a94be7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31737
content:
"Sustained CH4 mitigation reduces global surface ozone, contributing to air quality improvements, and also reduces \r\nsurface temperature in the longer term, but only sustained CO2 emissions reductions allow long-term climate \r\nstabilization (high confidence). Future changes in air quality (near-surface ozone and particulate matter, or PM) at \r\nglobal and local scales are predominantly driven by changes in ozone and aerosol precursor emissions rather than \r\nclimate (high confidence). Air quality improvements driven by rapid decarbonization strategies, as in SSP1-1.9 and \r\nSSP1-2.6, are not sufficient in the near term to achieve air quality guidelines set by the World Health Organization in \r\nsome highly polluted regions (high confidence). Additional policies (e.g., access to clean energy, waste management) \r\nenvisaged to attain United Nations Sustainable Development Goals bring complementary SLCF reduction. {4.4.4, 6.6.3, \r\n6.7.3, Box 6.2}"


id: aef0b9347cbe55c93b4930e8443ffc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25058
content:
"The net effect of SLCF emissions changes on temperature will depend on how emissions of warming and cooling SLCFs will evolve \r\nin the future. The magnitude of the cooling effect of aerosols remains the largest uncertainty in the effect of SLCFs in future climate \r\nprojections. Since the SLCFs have undergone large changes over the past two decades, the temperature and air pollution responses \r\nare estimated relative to the year 2019 instead of 1995-2014."


id: d028b429d8e8cce441755a0406fd0cda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30281
content:
"Assuming implementation and efficient enforcement of both the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that \r\nDeplete the Ozone Layer and current national plans result in limiting emissions (as in SSP1-2.6), the effects of HFCs on global \r\nsurface temperature, relative to 2019, would remain below +0. 02degC from 2050 onwards versus about +0.04degC-0.08degC in 2050 and \r\n+0.1degC-0.3degC in 2100 considering only national HFC regulations decided prior to the Kigali Amendment (as in SSP5-8.5) (medium \r\nconfidence). {6.6.3, 6.7.3}"


id: ff03707c4d4009e5ed051ee1249578bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37670
content:
"Air pollution projections range from strong reductions in global surface ozone and PM (e.g., SSP1-2.6, with stringent mitigation of both \r\nair pollution and climate change) to no improvement and even degradation (e.g., SSP3-7.0 without climate change mitigation and \r\nwith only weak air pollution control) (high confidence). Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, PM levels are projected to increase until 2050 \r\nover large parts of Asia, and surface ozone pollution is projected to worsen over all continental areas through 2100 (high confidence). \r\nIn SSP5-8.5, a scenario without climate change mitigation but with stringent air pollution control, PM levels decline through 2100, but \r\nhigh CH4 levels hamper the decline in global surface ozone at least until 2080 (high confidence). {6.7.1}"


id: a555be8ad9d253220dc7dc1d1d06d44e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23579
content:
"Solar radiation modification (SRM) refers to deliberate, large-scale climate intervention options that are studied as potential \r\nsupplements to deep mitigation, for example, in scenarios that overshoot climate stabilization goals. SRM options aim to offset some \r\nof the warming effects of GHG emissions by modification of Earth's shortwave radiation budget. Following SR1.5, the SRM assessed \r\nin this Report also includes some options, such as cirrus cloud thinning, that alter the longwave radiation budget. "


id: d123e938d37391d5436f5a21888828ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30438
content:
"SRM contrasts with climate change mitigation activities, such as emissions reductions and CDR, as it introduces a 'mask' to the \r\nclimate change problem by altering Earth's radiation budget, rather than attempting to address the root cause of the problem, which \r\nis the increase in GHGs in the atmosphere. By masking only the climate effects of GHG emissions, SRM does not address other issues \r\nrelated to atmospheric CO2 increase, such as ocean acidification. This Report assesses physical understanding of the Earth system \r\nresponse to proposed SRM, and the assessment is based primarily on idealized climate model simulations. There are other important \r\nconsiderations, such as risk to human and natural systems, perceptions, ethics, cost, governance, and trans-boundary issues and their \r\nrelationship to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals - issues that the WGII (Chapter 16) and WGIII (Chapter 14) Reports \r\naddress. {4.6.3}"


id: 35663f7be096725eef01d82690e3599
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5812
content:
"SRM options include those that increase surface albedo, brighten marine clouds by increasing the amount of cloud condensation \r\nnuclei, or reduce the optical depth of cirrus clouds by seeding them with ice nucleating particles. However, the most commonly studied \r\napproaches attempt to mimic the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions by injecting reflective aerosols (e.g., sulphate aerosols) \r\nor their precursors (e.g., sulphur dioxide) into the stratosphere. {4.6.3, 5.6.3, 6.4.6}"


id: 60d53d296f3476cad29757b4e1d7e017
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12805
content:
"SRM could offset some effects of greenhouse gas-induced warming on global and regional climate, but there would be substantial \r\nresidual and overcompensating climate change at the regional scale and seasonal time scales (high confidence). Since AR5, more \r\nmodelling work has been conducted with more sophisticated treatment of aerosol-based SRM approaches, but the uncertainties in \r\ncloud-aerosol-radiation interactions are still large (high confidence). Modelling studies suggest that it is possible to stabilize multiple \r\nlarge-scale temperature indicators simultaneously by tailoring the deployment strategy of SRM options (medium confidence) but with \r\nlarge residual or overcompensating regional and seasonal climate changes. {4.6.3}"


id: 86c671f735f805eebbe4bfe563d42056
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18740
content:
"SRM approaches targeting shortwave radiation are likely to reduce global mean precipitation, relative to future CO2 emissions \r\nscenarios, if all global mean warming is offset. In contrast, cirrus cloud thinning, targeting longwave radiation, is expected to cause \r\nan increase in global mean precipitation (medium confidence). If shortwave approaches are used to offset global mean warming, \r\nthe magnitude of reduction in regional precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E) (Box TS.5), which is more relevant to freshwater \r\navailability, is smaller than precipitation decrease because of simultaneous reductions in both precipitation and evapotranspiration \r\n(medium confidence). {4.6.3, 8.2.1, 8.6.3}."


id: f1a587abd014cff9e3dfb0babb51ed4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35524
content:
"If SRM is used to cool the planet, it would cause a reduction in plant and soil respiration and slow the reduction of ocean carbon \r\nuptake due to warming (medium confidence). The result would be an enhancement of the global land and ocean CO2 sinks (medium \r\nconfidence) and a slight reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration relative to unmitigated climate change. However, SRM would \r\nnot stop CO2 from increasing in the atmosphere or affect the resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions \r\n(high confidence). {5.6.3}"


id: e51e2149582e9376674c25b283e559da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33535
content:
"The effect of stratospheric aerosol injection on global temperature and precipitation is projected by models to be detectable after one \r\nto two decades, which is similar to the time scale for the emergence of the benefits of emissions reductions. A sudden and sustained \r\ntermination of SRM in a high GHG emissions scenario would cause rapid climate change and a reversal of the SRM effects on the \r\ncarbon sinks (high confidence). It is also likely that a termination of strong SRM would drive abrupt changes in the water cycle globally \r\nand regionally, especially in the tropical regions by shifting the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and Hadley cells. At the regional scale, \r\nnon-linear responses cannot be excluded, due to changes in evapotranspiration. However, a gradual phase-out of SRM combined with \r\nemissions reductions and CDR would avoid larger rates of changes (medium confidence). {4.6.3, 5.6.3, 8.6.3}."


id: 38f1c2b63f0f1dbc7975411c4bec86a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6334
content:
"The present rates of response of many aspects of the climate system are proportionate to the rate of recent temperature \r\nchange, but some aspects may respond disproportionately. Some climate system components are slow to respond, \r\nsuch as the deep ocean overturning circulation and the ice sheets (Box TS.4). It is virtually certain that irreversible, \r\ncommitted change is already underway for the slow-to-respond processes as they come into adjustment for past and \r\npresent emissions. "


id: aafd10a3ddd21634a4435b009810f370
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24422
content:
"The paleoclimate record indicates that tipping elements exist in the climate system where processes undergo sudden \r\nshifts toward a different sensitivity to forcing, such as during a major deglaciation, where 1degC degree of temperature \r\nchange might correspond to a large or small ice-sheet mass loss during different stages (Box TS.2). For global climate \r\nindicators, evidence for abrupt change is limited, but deep ocean warming, acidification and sea level rise are committed \r\nto ongoing change for millennia after global surface temperatures initially stabilize and are irreversible on human time \r\nscales (very high confidence). At the regional scale, abrupt responses, tipping points and even reversals in the direction of \r\nchange cannot be excluded (high confidence). Some regional abrupt changes and tipping points could have severe local \r\nimpacts, such as unprecedented weather, extreme temperatures and increased frequency of droughts and forest fires. "


id: 2c9996599186963a29948df9cc6b54ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4447
content:
"Models that exhibit such tipping points are characterized by abrupt changes once the threshold is crossed, and even \r\na return to pre-threshold surface temperatures or to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations does not guarantee \r\nthat the tipping elements return to their pre-threshold state. Monitoring and early warning systems are being put into \r\nplace to observe tipping elements in the climate system. {1.3, 1.4.4, 1.5, 4.3.2, Table 4.10, 5.3.4, 5.4.9, 7.5.3, 9.2.2, \r\n9.2.4, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.6.3, Cross-chapter Box 12.1}"


id: 9740686b33b04bf4d1cdd6450fc5957b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21314
content:
"Understanding of multi-decadal reversibility (i.e., the system returns to the previous climate state within multiple decades after \r\nthe radiative forcing is removed) has improved since AR5 for many atmospheric, land surface and sea ice climate metrics following \r\nsea surface temperature recovery. Some processes suspected of having tipping points, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning \r\nCirculation (AMOC), have been found to often undergo recovery after temperature stabilization with a time delay (low confidence). \r\nHowever, substantial irreversibility is further substantiated for some cryosphere changes, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean \r\nacidification. {4.7.2, 5.3.3, 5.4.9, 9.2.2, 9.2.4, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.6.3}"


id: 7a611957cdc149c687e56afd2c3e7905
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16823
content:
"The response of biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenic perturbations can be abrupt at regional scales and irreversible on decadal to \r\ncentury time scales (high confidence). The probability of crossing uncertain regional thresholds increases with climate change (high "


id: f844fc88bc9c5e537cb97dd4ce5c0b1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36578
content:
"requirements, and demand (very high confidence). The \r\ndecision-making context, level of user engagement, \r\nand co-production between scientists, practitioners and \r\nusers are important determinants of the type of climate \r\nservice developed and its utility in supporting adaptation, \r\nmitigation and risk management decisions. {10.3, 10.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 10.3, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2}"


id: b3a9555f4ef9f719ed4ac7d3424a1798
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25781
content:
"This section focuses on how to generate regional climate change \r\ninformation and its relevance for climate services; the drivers of regional \r\nclimate variability and change and how they are being affected by \r\nanthropogenic factors; and observed, attributed and projected changes \r\nin climate, including extreme events and climatic impact-drivers (CIDs), \r\nacross all regions of the world. There is a small set of CID changes \r\ncommon to all land or ocean regions and a specific set of changes from \r\na broader range of CIDs seen in each region. This regional diversity \r\nresults from regional climate being determined by a complex interplay \r\nbetween the seasonal-to-multi-decadal variation of large-scale modes \r\nof climate variability, external natural and anthropogenic forcings, local \r\nclimate processes and related feedbacks."


id: e5b323f3b783ca3e022ee024254d2eef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33645
content:
"Climate change information at regional scale is generated \r\nusing a range of data sources and methodologies. Multi\u0002model ensembles and models with a range of resolutions \r\nare important data sources, and discarding models that \r\nfundamentally misrepresent relevant processes improves \r\nthe credibility of ensemble information related to these \r\nprocesses. A key methodology is distillation - combining \r\nlines of evidence and accounting for stakeholder context \r\nand values - which helps ensure the information is relevant, \r\nuseful and trusted for decision-making (see Core Concepts \r\nBox) (high confidence). "


id: 6e7055d565606809e623553f24d69a58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14999
content:
"Since AR5, physical climate storylines have emerged as \r\na complementary approach to ensemble projections for \r\ngenerating more accessible climate information and \r\npromoting a more comprehensive treatment of risk. They \r\nhave been used as part of the distillation process within \r\nclimate services to generate the required context-relevant, \r\ncredible and trusted climate information. "


id: 4315ea6b78a1f5bfbea0a68b34897a6a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7951
content:
"Depending on the region of interest, representing regionally important \r\nforcings (e.g., aerosols, land-use change and ozone concentrations) \r\nand feedbacks (e.g., between snow and albedo, soil moisture and \r\ntemperature, or soil moisture and precipitation) in climate models is a \r\nprerequisite for them to reproduce past regional trends to underpin the "


id: 5c7f9a2940f6b9b3e40607ec82738daa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12070
content:
"Methodologies such as statistical downscaling, bias adjustment and \r\nweather generators are beneficial as an interface between climate \r\nmodel projections and impact modelling and for deriving user\u0002relevant indicators (high confidence). However, the performance of \r\nthese techniques depends on that of the driving climate model: in \r\nparticular, bias adjustment cannot overcome all consequences of \r\nunresolved or strongly misrepresented physical processes, such as \r\nlarge-scale circulation biases or local feedbacks (medium confidence). \r\n{10.3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 10.2, 12.2, Atlas.2.2}"


id: 85dcafd367061f1fb4ce8b865333c3b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18606
content:
"reliability of future projections (medium confidence) (Section TS.1.2.2). \r\nIn some cases, even the sign of a projected change in regional climate \r\ncannot be trusted if relevant regional processes are not represented, for \r\nexample, for variables such as precipitation and wind speed (medium \r\nconfidence). In some regions, either geographical (e.g., Central Africa, \r\nAntarctica) or typological (e.g., mountainous areas, Small Islands and \r\ncities), and for certain phenomena, fewer observational records are \r\navailable or accessible, which limits the assessment of regional climate \r\nchange in these cases. {1.5.1, 1.5.3, 1.5.4, 8.5.1, 10.2, 10.3.3, 10.4.1, \r\n11.1.6, 11.2, 12.4, Atlas.8.3, Atlas.11.1.5, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2}"


id: b0ad4fe5a353f6e9614a6f61f4a5ca1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25317
content:
"The attribution of observed changes in extremes to human influence (including greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions \r\nand land-use changes) has substantially advanced since AR5, in particular for extreme precipitation, droughts, \r\ntropical cyclones, and compound extremes (high confidence). There is limited evidence for windstorms and convective \r\nstorms. Some recent hot extreme events would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the \r\nclimate system. (Section TS.1) {Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution in Chapter 1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.7, 11.8}"


id: 68f03056d25588766861ba224c1bac89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14102
content:
"Since AR5, the attribution of extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of climate research with an increasing body of \r\nliterature. It provides evidence that greenhouse gases and other external forcings have affected individual extreme weather events \r\nby disentangling anthropogenic drivers from natural variability. Event attribution is now an important line of evidence for assessing \r\nchanges in extremes on regional scales. (Section TS.1) {Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution, 11.1.4}"


id: 853e660f516f2e94c4e014fb88d0522a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18488
content:
"It is very likely that human influence is the main contributor to the observed increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and \r\nthe observed decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes on continental scales. Some specific recent hot extreme events \r\nwould have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. Changes in aerosol concentrations \r\nhave likely slowed the increase in hot extremes in some regions, in particular from 1950-1980. No-till farming, irrigation and crop \r\nexpansion have similarly attenuated increases in summer hot extremes in some regions, such as central North America (medium \r\nconfidence). {11.3.4}"


id: 186ca256e7801ecec85378d4309ed472
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1339
content:
"Human influence has contributed to the intensification of heavy precipitation in three continents where observational data are most \r\nabundant: North America, Europe and Asia (high confidence). On regional scales, evidence of human influence on extreme precipitation \r\nis limited, but new evidence from attributing individual heavy precipitation events found that human influence was a significant driver \r\nof the events. {11.4.4}"


id: 1911288b0189e86c20d751550e04e045
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1437
content:
"There is low confidence that human influence has affected trends in meteorological droughts in most regions, but medium confidence\r\nthat they have contributed to the severity of some specific events. There is medium confidence that human-induced climate change \r\nhas contributed to increasing trends in the probability or intensity of recent agricultural and ecological droughts, leading to an \r\nincrease of the affected land area. {11.6.4}"


id: f5fe67d48506272382b127983a0f15ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36216
content:
"Event attribution studies of specific strong tropical cyclones provide limited evidence for anthropogenic effects on tropical cyclone \r\nintensifications so far, but high confidence for increases in precipitation. There is high confidence that anthropogenic climate change \r\ncontributed to extreme rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey (in 2017) and other intense tropical cyclones. {11.7.3}"


id: 78515b8ff1718b3c93f7c36d3200ab88
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16494
content:
"The number of evident attribution studies on compound events is limited. There is medium confidence that weather conditions that \r\npromote wildfires have become more probable in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the USA, and Australia over the last century. In \r\nAustralia a number of event attribution studies show that there is medium confidence of increase in fire weather conditions due to \r\nhuman influence. {11.8.3, 12.4.3.2}"


id: 821984308b081b1d67cc1a024d249928
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17988
content:
"changes in a key mode of variability (the Southern Annular Mode) \r\nand drought in Cape Town among different observation periods and \r\nin model simulations. {10.5.3, 10.6, 10.6.2, 10.6.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 10.3, 12.4}"


id: b6d5939f59758ca8623ad60223879af8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26289
content:
"The construction of regional climate information involves people with \r\na variety of backgrounds, from various disciplines, who have different \r\nsets of experiences, capabilities and values. The process of synthesizing \r\nclimate information from different lines of evidence from a number \r\nof sources, taking into account the context of a user vulnerable to \r\nclimate variability and change and the values of all relevant actors, is \r\ncalled distillation. Distillation is conditioned by the sources available, \r\nthe actors involved, and the context, which all depend heavily on the \r\nregions considered, and is framed by the question being addressed. \r\nDistilling regional climate information from multiple lines of evidence \r\nand taking the user context into account increases fitness, usefulness, \r\nrelevance and trust in that information for use in climate services \r\n(Box TS.11) and decision-making (high confidence). {1.2.3, 10.1.4, \r\n10.5, Cross-Chapter Box 10.3, 12.6}"


id: e57444add5adc20a0dbb73de569da882
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33605
content:
"Climate services involve providing climate information to assist decision-making, for example, about how extreme \r\nrainfall will change to inform improvements in urban drainage. Since AR5, there has been a significant increase in the \r\nrange and diversity of climate service activities (very high confidence). The level of user-engagement, co-design and \r\nco-production are factors determining the utility of climate services, while resource limitations for these activities \r\nconstrain their full potential. {12.6, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2}"


id: c4213df35955299a110bb9bc6253af7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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content:
"Climate services include engagement from users and providers and an effective access mechanism; they are responsive to user needs \r\nand based on integrating scientifically credible information and relevant expertise. Climate services are being developed across \r\nregions, sectors, time scales and user-groups and include a range of knowledge brokerage and integration activities. These involve \r\nidentifying knowledge needs; compiling, translating and disseminating knowledge; coordinating networks and building capacity \r\nthrough informed decision-making; analysis, evaluation and development of policy; and personal consultation."


id: 618de4d3e1355f710155b51edd33f252
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 12916
content:
"Since AR5, climate change information produced in climate service contexts has increased significantly due to scientific and \r\ntechnological advancements and growing user awareness, requirements and demand (very high confidence). Climate services are \r\ngrowing rapidly and are highly diverse in their practices and products. The decision-making context, level of user engagement and co\u0002production between scientists, practitioners and intended users are important determinants of the type of climate service developed \r\nand their utility for supporting adaptation, mitigation and risk management decisions. They require different types of user-producer \r\nengagement depending on what the service aims to deliver (high confidence), and these fall into three broad categories: website\u0002based services, interactive group activities and focused relationships."


id: e82ac5ddff6cc8df4f4dabf0b8cbdbe0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 34034
content:
"Realization of the full potential of climate services is often hindered by limited resources for the co-design and co-production process, \r\nincluding sustained engagement between scientists, service providers and users (high confidence). Further challenges relate to the \r\ndevelopment and provision of climate services, generation of climate service products, communication with users, and evaluation of \r\ntheir quality and socio-economic benefit. (Section TS.4.1) {1.2.3, 10.5.4, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2, Glossary}"


id: c6bc0b016400fc388ecf52ae6dbc74fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content:
"Box TS.12 | Multiple Lines of Evidence for Assessing Regional Climate Change and the \r\nInteractive Atlas"


id: bd5cd208c4897d9178646ba6427e95ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content:
"A key novel element in the AR6 is the Working Group I Atlas, which includes the Interactive Atlas (https://interactive\u0002atlas.ipcc.ch/). The Interactive Atlas provides the ability to explore much of the observational and climate model data \r\nused as lines of evidence in this assessment to generate regional climate information. {Atlas.2}"


id: a242a871af9d20b120a318e49bc1ff28
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23095
content:
"Box TS.12, Figure 1 shows how the Interactive Atlas products, together with other lines of evidence, can be used to generate climate \r\ninformation for an illustrative example of the Mediterranean summer warming. The lines of evidence include the understanding of \r\nrelevant mechanisms, dynamic and thermodynamic processes and the effect of aerosols in this case (Box TS.12, Figure 1a); trends \r\nin observational datasets (which can have different spatial and temporal coverage; Box TS.12, Figure 1b, c); and attribution of these \r\ntrends and temperature projections from global and regional climate models at different resolutions, including single-model initial\u0002condition large ensembles (SMILEs; Box TS.12, Figure 1d, e). Taken together, this evidence shows there is high confidence that the "


id: a66ffdff47860669064a67a2bc0cf7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23716
content:
"projected Mediterranean summer temperature increase will be larger than the global mean, with consistent results from CMIP5 and \r\nCMIP6 (Box TS.12, Figure 1e). However, CMIP6 results project both more pronounced warming than CMIP5 for a given emissions \r\nscenario and time period and a greater range of changes (Box TS.12, Figure 1d). {10.6.4, Atlas.2, Atlas.8.4}"


id: 62be2c50596665f89d3729f50a83c236
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13102
content:
"temperature is moderated or amplified by soil moisture feedback, \r\nsnow/ice-albedo feedback, regional forcing from land-use/land\u0002cover changes, forcing from aerosol concentrations, or decadal/\r\nmulti-decadal natural variability. Changes in local and remote \r\naerosol forcings lead to south-north gradients of the effective \r\nradiative forcing (hemispherical asymmetry). Along latitudes, \r\nit is more uniform, with strong amplification of the temperature \r\nresponse towards the Arctic (medium confidence). The decrease \r\nof SO2 emissions since the 1980s reduces the damping effect of \r\naerosols, leading to a faster increase in surface air temperature \r\nthat is most pronounced at mid- and high latitudes of the Northern \r\nHemisphere, where the largest emissions reductions have taken \r\nplace (medium confidence). {1.3, 3.4.1, 6.3.4, 6.4.1, 6.4.3, 8.3.1, \r\n8.3.2, Box 8.1, 10.4.2, 10.6, 11.1.6, 11.3}"


id: 915846fac48e49828b8f14ad5bfcfee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content:
"Anthropogenic forcing, including GHGs and aerosols, but \r\nalso regional land use and irrigation have all affected \r\nobserved regional climate changes (high confidence) and \r\nwill continue to do so in the future (high confidence), with \r\nvarious degrees of influence and response times, depending \r\non warming levels, the nature of the forcing and the relative \r\nimportance of internal variability. "


id: ec4850417266ecb18d75ea1f8f33ccb3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34665
content:
"Since the late 19th century, major modes of variability \r\n(MoVs) exhibited fluctuations in frequency and magnitude \r\nat multi-decadal time scales, but no sustained trends \r\noutside the range of internal variability (Table TS.4). An \r\nexception is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has \r\nbecome systematically more positive (high confidence) and \r\nis projected to be more positive in all seasons, except for \r\nDecember-January-February (DJF), in high CO2 emissions \r\nscenarios (high confidence). The influence of stratospheric \r\nozone forcing on the SAM trend has been reduced since the \r\nearly 2000s compared to earlier decades, contributing to \r\nthe weakening of its positive trend as observed over 2000-\r\n2019 (medium confidence). "


id: 30c548ff40c0fc2358bf08c91ef992bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5095
content:
"Multi-decadal dimming and brightening trends in incoming solar \r\nradiation at Earth's surface occurred at widespread locations (high \r\nconfidence). Multi-decadal variation in anthropogenic aerosol \r\nemissions are thought to be a major contributor (medium confidence), \r\nbut multi-decadal variability in cloudiness may also have played a \r\nrole. Volcanic eruptions affect regional climate through their spatially \r\nheterogeneous effect on the radiative budget as well as through \r\ntriggering dynamical responses by favouring a given phase from \r\nsome MoVs, for instance. {1.4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 1.2, 2.2.1, 2.2.2, \r\n3.7.1, 3.7.3, 4.3.1, 4.4.1, 4.4.4, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, 7.2.2, 8.5.2, \r\n10.1.4, 11.1.6, 11.3.1}"


id: bb359c81e890bb2529f4e126f10c201e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26998
content:
"In the near term, projected changes in most of the MoVs \r\nand related teleconnections will likely be dominated by \r\ninternal variability. In the long term, it is very likely that \r\nthe precipitation variance related to El Nino-Southern \r\nOscillation will increase. Physical climate storylines, \r\nincluding the complex interplay between climate drivers, \r\nMoVs, and local and remote forcing, increase confidence \r\nin the understanding and use of observed and projected \r\nregional changes. {2.4, 3.7, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 6.4, 8.3, 8.4, 10.3, \r\n10.4, 11.3}"


id: 3f3386436d2d7e56dea9c763276c7984
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7335
content:
"Historical urbanization affects the observed warming trends in cities \r\nand their surroundings (very high confidence). Future urbanization \r\nwill amplify the projected air temperature under different background \r\nclimates, with a strong effect on minimum temperatures that could \r\nbe as large as the global warming signal (very high confidence) \r\n(Box TS.14). Irrigation and crop expansion have attenuated increases \r\nin summer hot extremes in some regions, such as central North \r\nAmerica (medium confidence) (Box TS.6). {Box 10.3, 11.1.6, 11.3}"


id: d23787b5e947eac35ea5dcd5577a7fd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 30602
content:
"Modes of variability (Annex IV, Table TS.4) have existed for millennia \r\nor longer (high confidence), but there is low confidence in detailed \r\nreconstructions of most of them prior to direct instrumental records. \r\nMoVs are treated as a main source of uncertainties associated with \r\ninternal dynamics, as they can either accentuate or dampen, even \r\nmask, the anthropogenically forced responses. {2.4, 8.5.2, 10.4, 10.6, \r\n11.1.5, Atlas.3.1}"


id: 7dd20c291d0bc382cbf77a2294732636
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17363
content:
"While anthropogenic forcing has contributed to multi-decadal \r\nmean precipitation changes in several regions, internal variability \r\ncan delay emergence of the anthropogenic signal in long-term \r\nprecipitation changes in many land regions (high confidence). At the \r\nregional scale, the effect of human-induced GHG forcing on extreme "


id: d23034b3a4ebbdd0ec5ba025f5a712a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 30598
content:
"contributed to observed temporal evolution in the Atlantic Multi\u0002decadal Variability (AMV) and associated regional teleconnections, \r\nespecially since the 1960s, but there is low confidence in the \r\nmagnitude of this influence and the relative contributions of \r\nnatural and anthropogenic forcings. Internal variability is the \r\nmain driver of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) observed since \r\nthe start of the instrumental records (high confidence), despite \r\nsome modelling evidence for potential external influence. There is \r\nmedium confidence that the AMV will undergo a shift towards a \r\nnegative phase in the near term. {2.4, 3.7.6, 3.7.7, 8.5.2, 4.4.3}"


id: 50a8b9cadd413833fd77173f3dc1564d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
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vector_id: 10133
content:
"Modes of decadal and multi-decadal variability over the Pacific \r\nand Atlantic Ocean exhibit no significant changes in variance \r\nover the period of observational records (high confidence). There \r\nis medium confidence that anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols "


id: a92a43daa742f7c1e4ca2c99c74af246
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24147
content:
"annual to decadal time scales (high confidence). The anthropogenic \r\nsignal in regional sea level change will emerge in most regions by \r\n2100 (medium confidence). {9.2.4, 9.6.1, 10.4.1, 10.4.2, 10.4.3}"


id: 22b3cbcd6dd45cd5a0d45437643bfc7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2915
content:
"Anthropogenic forcing has been a major driver of regional mean \r\ntemperature change since 1950 in many sub-continental regions of \r\nthe world (virtually certain). At regional scales, internal variability \r\nis stronger, and uncertainties in observations, models and external \r\nforcing are all larger than at the global scale, hindering a robust \r\nassessment of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases, \r\nstratospheric ozone, and different aerosol species in most of the cases. \r\nMultiple lines of evidence, combining multi-model ensemble global \r\nprojections with those coming from single-model initial-condition \r\nlarge ensembles, show that internal variability is largely contributing \r\nto the delayed or absent emergence of the anthropogenic signal in \r\nlong-term regional mean precipitation changes (high confidence). \r\nInternal variability in ocean dynamics dominates regional patterns on "


id: 535d5ac2875c95b3a97172778a89ef46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10584
content:
"Regional climate change is subject to the complex interplay between \r\nmultiple external forcings and internal variability. Time evolution \r\nof mechanisms operating at different time scales can modify the \r\namplitude of the regional-scale response of temperature, and \r\nboth the amplitude and sign of the response of precipitation, to \r\nanthropogenic forcing (high confidence). These mechanisms include \r\nnon-linear temperature, precipitation and soil moisture feedbacks; \r\nslow and fast responses of SST patterns; and atmospheric circulation \r\nchanges to increasing GHGs. Land-use and aerosol forcings and \r\nland-atmosphere feedback play important roles in modulating \r\nregional changes, for instance in weather and climate extremes (high \r\nconfidence). These can also lead to a higher warming of extreme "


id: 9df86351f15c2095a478325aa40e807c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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content:
"temperatures compared to mean temperature (high confidence), \r\nand possibly cooling in some regions (medium confidence). The \r\nsoil moisture-temperature feedback was shown to be relevant for \r\npast and present-day heatwaves based on observations and model \r\nsimulations. {10.4.3, 11.1.6, 11.3.1}"


id: 4e66b1aa54f3a02fd875d080558038b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 9761
content:
"South-Eastern South America (SES) is one of the AR6 WGI reference \r\nregions (outlined with black thick contour in Figure TS.21a), and \r\nit is used here as an illustrative example of the interplay between \r\ndrivers of climate variability and change at regional scale. Austral \r\nsummer (DJF) precipitation positive trends have been observed \r\nover the region during 1950-2014. Drivers of this change include \r\nMoVs, such as AMV, ENSO, and PDV, as well as external forcing, \r\nlike GHG increases and ozone depletion together with aerosols (as \r\nillustrated in Figure TS.21a). Modes of variability and external forcing \r\ncollectively affect climate phenomena, such as the Hadley cell width \r\nand strength, Rossby waves activity emerging from the large-scale \r\ntropical SST anomalies, and the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex, "


id: 2e6eb4d9e9d279fca6922b56799079fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Global land monsoon precipitation decreased from the 1950s to the 1980s, partly due to anthropogenic aerosols, but \r\nhas increased since then in response to GHG forcing and large-scale multi-decadal variability (medium confidence). \r\nNorthern Hemispheric anthropogenic aerosols weakened the regional monsoon circulations in South Asia, East Asia \r\nand West Africa during the second half of the 20th century, thereby offsetting the expected strengthening of monsoon \r\nprecipitation in response to GHG-induced warming (high confidence). "


id: b516179abf48a7ef34edcb7a83f1c228
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26024
content:
"During the 21st century, global land monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in response to GHG warming in \r\nall time horizons and scenarios (high confidence). Over South and South East Asia, East Asia and the central Sahel, \r\nmonsoon precipitation is projected to increase, whereas over North America and the far western Sahel it is projected \r\nto decrease (medium confidence). There is low confidence in projected precipitation changes in the South American \r\nand Australian-Maritime Continent monsoons. At global and regional scales, near-term monsoon changes will be \r\ndominated by the effects of internal variability (medium confidence). {2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.4, 3.3, 4.4, 4.5, 8.2, \r\n8.3, 8.4, 8.5, Box 8.1, Box 8.2, 10.6}"


id: 7e88de6c2cb0ccb8fd8595a9e495ed1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17469
content:
"Paleoclimate records indicate that during warm climates, like the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, monsoon systems were stronger \r\n(medium confidence). In the instrumental records, global summer monsoon precipitation intensity has likely increased since the \r\n1980s, dominated by Northern Hemisphere summer trends and large multi-decadal variability. Contrary to the expected increase of \r\nprecipitation under global warming, the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions experienced declining precipitation from the 1950s \r\nto 1980s, which is partly attributable to the influence of anthropogenic aerosols (medium confidence) (Box TS.13, Figure 1). {2.3.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 2.4, 3.3.2, 3.3.3}"


id: b10ac6b0bbdcc8461e1f8512b4def5c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25357
content:
"With continued global warming, it is likely that global land monsoon precipitation will increase during this century (Box TS.13, Figure 1), \r\nparticularly in the Northern Hemisphere, although the monsoon circulation is projected to weaken. A slowdown of the tropical circulation \r\nwith global warming can partly offset the warming-induced strengthening of precipitation in monsoon regions (high confidence). In the \r\nnear term, global monsoon changes are likely to be dominated by the effects of internal variability and model uncertainties (medium \r\nconfidence). In the long term, global monsoon rainfall change will feature a robust north-south asymmetry characterized by a greater \r\nincrease in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere and an east-west asymmetry characterized by enhanced Asian-\r\nAfrican monsoons and a weakened North American monsoon (medium confidence). {4.4.1, 4.5.1, 8.4.1}"


id: d7a62789ab44aec05115c88432579a05
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31455
content:
"Paleoclimate reconstructions indicate stronger monsoons in the Northern Hemisphere but weaker ones in the Southern Hemisphere \r\nduring warm periods, particularly for the South and South East Asian, East Asian, and North and South American monsoons, with \r\nthe opposite occurring during cold periods (medium confidence). It is very likely that Northern Hemispheric anthropogenic aerosols \r\nweakened the regional monsoon circulations in South Asia, East Asia and West Africa during the second half of the 20th century, "


id: 888adcd688d32da389b10e22743033f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19011
content:
"thereby offsetting the expected strengthening of monsoon precipitation in response to GHG-induced warming (Box TS.13, Figure 1). \r\nMultiple lines of evidence explain this contrast over South Asia, with the observed trends dominated by the effects of aerosols, while \r\nfuture projections are mostly driven by GHG increases. The recent partial recovery and enhanced intensity of monsoon precipitation \r\nover West Africa is related to the growing influence of GHGs with an additional contribution due to the reduced cooling effect of \r\nanthropogenic aerosols, emitted largely from North America and Europe (medium confidence). For other regional monsoons, that \r\nis, North and South America and Australia, there is low confidence in the attribution of recent changes in precipitation (Box TS.13, \r\nFigure 1) and winds. {2.3.1, 8.3.1, 8.3.2, Box 8.1, 10.6.3}"


id: 310dd0ef53ba95a173d897a149ad47db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5141
content:
"Building the Assessment from Multiple Lines of Evidence\r\nLarge natural variability of monsoon precipitation across different time scales, found in both paleoclimate reconstructions and \r\ninstrumental measurements, poses an inherent challenge for robust quantification of future changes in precipitation at regional and \r\nsmaller spatial scales. At both global and regional scales, there is medium confidence that internal variability contributes the largest \r\nuncertainty related to projected changes, at least in the near term (2021-2040). A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning \r\nCirculation could weaken the African and Asian monsoons but strengthen the Southern Hemisphere monsoons (high confidence). \r\n{4.4.4, 4.5.1, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.1, 9.2.3, 10.6.3}"


id: bc50308871ef9da7f5841e26e91c6e99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27208
content:
"Overall, long-term (2081-2100) future changes in regional monsoons like the South and South East Asian monsoon are generally \r\nconsistent across global (including high-resolution) and regional climate models and are supported by theoretical arguments. \r\nUncertainties in simulating the observed characteristics of regional monsoon precipitation are related to varying complexities of \r\nregional monsoon processes and their responses to external forcing, internal variability, and deficiencies in representing monsoon warm \r\nrain processes, organized tropical convection, heavy orographic rainfall and cloud-aerosol interactions. {8.3.2, 8.5.1, 10.3.3, 10.6.3}"


id: 9759d180ad18bbbbba5da0408e24d185
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21334
content:
"Relative sea level rise is very likely to virtually certain\r\n(depending on the region) to continue during the 21st \r\ncentury, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low\u0002lying areas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along \r\nmost sandy coasts (high confidence). Sea level will continue \r\nto rise beyond 2100 (high confidence) (Box TS.4). "


id: 885ebcb9fb41015fd5438f554ef37eee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18987
content:
"Current climate in all regions is already distinct from the \r\nclimate of the early or mid-20th century with respect to \r\nseveral climatic impact-drivers (CIDs), resulting in shifting \r\nmagnitude, frequency, duration, seasonality and spatial \r\nextent of associated climate indices (high confidence). \r\nIt is very likely that mean temperatures have increased \r\nin all land regions and will continue to increase at rates \r\ngreater than the global average (high confidence). The \r\nfrequency of heat and cold extremes have increased and \r\ndecreased, respectively. These changes are attributed to \r\nhuman influence in almost all regions (medium to high \r\nconfidence) and will continue through the 21st century \r\n(high confidence). In particular, extreme heat would exceed \r\ncritical thresholds for health, agriculture and other sectors \r\nmore frequently by the mid 21st century with 2degC of global \r\nwarming (high confidence). "


id: 406296ff98069a6895a57d50fc7bf250
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7514
content:
"Every region of the world will experience concurrent \r\nchanges in multiple CIDs by mid-century or at 2degC global \r\nwarming and above (high confidence). Even for the current \r\nclimate, climate change-induced shifts in CID distributions \r\nand event probabilities, some of which have occurred over \r\nrecent decades, are relevant for risk assessments. {11.9, \r\n12.1, 12.2, 12.4, 12.5, Atlas.3-Atlas.11}"


id: 3565f46dfc42f1d3a221fc72e30424ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5811
content:
"An overview of changes in regional CIDs (introduced in Section TS.1) \r\nis given in Table TS.5, which summarizes multiple lines of evidence \r\non regional climate change derived from observed trends, attribution \r\nof these trends and future projections. The level of confidence and "


id: d9133e024fe78a9359be5c9bff16689
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
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vector_id: 31660
content:
"multiple line\r\nSRES A1B, or a\r\nicate medium a\r\nTables 11.4-11\r\n Ice \r\nHeavy snowfall and ice storm\r\nHail\r\nSnow avalanche\r\nMedium confiof decrease "


id: 68fe82d91f2823c56f0b3a75e3f93ade
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14113
content:
"le TS.5 | Summary o\r\nectional changes. Th\r\nroximately encompass\r\nca is not an AR6 WGI \r\np\r\nrica\r\north Africa / \r\nahara / \r\nestern Africa / \r\nentral Africa / \r\north Eastern \r\nfrica / \r\nouth Eastern \r\nfrica / \r\nest Southern \r\nfrica / \r\nast Southern \r\nfrica / \r\nadagascar / \r\ne: There are several re\r\ny for observational y for attribution evi"


id: 9a797f3aefdfcf3ef057bf6c07a8dfd2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21829
content:
"4. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of sufficient sediment supply from terrestrial or offshore sources"


id: f3ce922b23a01d85748533c01deaae34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35871
content:
"1. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat.\r\nbl f hhd df dbhlh"


id: 882b26169893dccd1ad9e9e340bddf9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18945
content:
"4. Medium confidence of increase in the north and east and decrease in south and west\r\n5. Low confidence of increasing intensity, and high confidence of decreasing occurrence"


id: c466675483f00a0ae34674ede1646140
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28472
content:
"2. Tropical cyclones decrease in number but increase in intensity\r\n3. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat."


id: 606f653ce054f305bfc742aa0a872eb8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12745
content:
"4. Substantial parts of the North-Western South America, Northern South America and North-Eastern South America coasts are projected to prograde if present-day \r\nambient shoreline change rates continue"


id: 52ce464a35f69ec1324fe085cba4af83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10484
content:
"2. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat"


id: debd3bb192b52250b9724acbd3604632
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32540
content:
"1. Snow may increase in some high elevations and during the cold season and decrease in other seasons and at lower elevations\r\n2. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat."


id: feadcd42c22729d43e202d1874c8ad7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37613
content:
"1. Very high confidence in the direction of change, but low to medium confidence in the magnitude of change due to model uncertainty\r\n2. Decrease in eastern Pacific and southern Pacific subtropics, but increase in parts of western and equatorial Pacific; with seasonal variation in future changes\r\n3. High confidence in increase in extreme rain frequency and intensity in western tropical Pacific; low confidence in magnitude of change due to model bias\r\n4. Increase in southern Pacific"


id: ffa6f51e417ab8bad5ea663743cdce71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37762
content:
"5. Increase in intensity; decrease in frequency except over central North Pacific.\r\n6. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat."


id: f73154dbb7aab4a9f1690fe2fff852f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36406
content:
"7. Along sandy coasts and in the absence of additional sediment sinks/sources or any physical barriers to shoreline retreat"


id: cf5ce196b269794bbdb71a9b83d107de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30156
content:
"(a) World regions grouped into five clusters, each one based on a combination of changes in climatic impact-driver\r\nAssessed future changes: Changes refer to a 20-30 year period centred around 2050 and/or consistent with 2degC global warming compared to a similar p\r\nwithin 1960-2014 or 1850-1900."


id: 74b257f29660f85d5d554ba967bab1f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15955
content:
"The height of the lighter shaded 'envelope' behind each bar represents the \r\nmaximum number of regions for which each CID is relevant. The envelope \r\nis symmetrical about the x-axis showing the maximum possible number of \r\nrelevant regions for CID increase (upper part) or decrease (lower part)."


id: 9a7184c9199d8604ca42f8ba14284ce5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21825
content:
"Climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element of \r\nsociety or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a \r\nmixture of each across interacting system elements and regions. The CIDs are grouped into seven types, which are summarized \r\nunder the icons in sub-panels (i) and (ii). All regions are projected to experience changes in at least 5 CIDs. Almost all (96%) are \r\nprojected to experience changes in at least 10 CIDs and half in at least 15 CIDs. For many CID changes, there is wide \r\ngeographical variation, and so each region is projected to experience a specific set of CID changes. Each bar in the chart \r\nrepresents a specific geographical set of changes that can be explored in the WGI Interactive Atlas. "


id: 44df26ce30cb335a10d441f2f1c00166
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8257
content:
"Figure TS.22 | Synthesis of the geographical distribution of climatic impact-drivers changes and the number of AR6 WGI reference regions where they \r\nare projected to change. "


id: 6327e2b82fd289d461576476b7c838e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13169
content:
"regions (high confidence). In many tropical regions, the number of \r\ndays per year where a heat index of 41degC is exceeded would increase \r\nby more than 100 days relative to the recent past under SSP5-8.5, \r\nwhile this increase will be limited to less than 50 days under SSP1-2.6 \r\n(high confidence) (Figure TS.6). The number of days per year where \r\ntemperature exceeds 35degC would increase by more than 150 days in \r\nmany tropical areas, such as the Amazon basin and South East Asia, \r\nby the end of century for the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while it is expected to \r\nincrease by less than 60 days in these areas under SSP1-2.6 (except \r\nfor the Amazon Basin) (high confidence) (Figure TS.24). {4.6.1, 11.3, \r\n11.9, 12.4, 12.5.2, Atlas}"


id: ef6d0c71612270718186f3729a8cba04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35153
content:
"Warming trends observed in recent decades are projected to continue \r\nover the 21st century and over most land regions at a rate higher \r\nthan the global average (high confidence). For given global warming \r\nlevels, model projections from CMIP6 show future regional warming \r\nchanges that are similar to those projected by CMIP5. However, \r\nprojected regional warming in CMIP6 for given time periods and \r\nemissions scenarios has a wider range with a higher upper limit \r\ncompared to CMIP5 because of the higher climate sensitivity in some \r\nCMIP6 models and differences in the forcings. {Atlas.3-Atlas.11}"


id: d521681675c11745d723144d7fa361ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31062
content:
"Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, it is likely that most land areas will experience \r\nfurther warming of at least 4degC compared to a 1995-2014 baseline \r\nby the end of the 21st century, and in some areas significantly more. \r\nAt increasing warming levels, extreme heat will exceed critical \r\nthresholds for health, agriculture and other sectors more frequently \r\n(high confidence), and it is likely that cold spells will become less \r\nfrequent towards the end of the century. For example, by the end \r\nof the 21st century, dangerous humid heat thresholds, such as the \r\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) heat index \r\n(HI) threshold of 41degC, will be exceeded much more frequently under \r\nthe SSP5-8.5 scenario than under SSP1-2.6 and will affect many "


id: c48d2e06369c10be9b736e84c806918
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28498
content:
"Wind: Mean wind speed has decreased over most land areas with \r\ngood observational coverage (medium confidence). It is likely that \r\nthe global proportion of major tropical cyclone (TC) intensities \r\n(Categories 3-5) over the past four decades has increased. The \r\nproportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak \r\nwind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale \r\nwith increasing global warming (high confidence). {11.7.1}"


id: 9cc9fd88d9d110e7429a1de77a1d7453
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22204
content:
"Figure TS.23 | Time period during which the signals of temperature change in observed data aggregated over the reference regions emerged from the \r\nnoise of annual variability in the respective aggregated data, using a signal-to-noise ratio of two as the threshold for emergence. The intent of this figure \r\nis to show, for the AR6 WGI reference regions, when a signal of annual mean surface temperature change emerged from the noise of annual variability in two global datasets \r\nand thus also provide some information on observational uncertainty. Emergence time is calculated for two global observational datasets: (a) Berkeley Earth and (b) CRUTEM5. \r\nRegions in the CRUTEM5 map are shaded grey when data are available over less than 50% of the area of the region. (Section TS.1.2.4) {Figure Atlas.11}"


id: 5bf2f3bfd1eb8e8a58faaaf63de17f4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11980
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: There is high confidence that SST will \r\nincrease in all oceanic regions except the North Atlantic. Regional \r\nsea level change has been the main driver of changes in extreme \r\nsea levels across the quasi-global tide gauge network over the \r\n20th century (high confidence). With the exception of a few regions \r\nwith substantial land uplift, relative sea level rise is very likely to \r\nvirtually certain (depending on the region) to continue during the \r\n21st century, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying \r\nareas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along most sandy \r\ncoasts (high confidence) over the 21st century. In the open ocean, \r\nacidification, changes in sea ice, and deoxygenation have already \r\nemerged in many areas (high confidence). Marine heatwaves are \r\nalso expected to increase around the globe over the 21st century \r\n(high confidence). (Section TS.2.4) {Box  9.2, 9.2.1.1, 9.6, 9.6.4, \r\n9.6.4.2, 12.4}"


id: 1d6c5fe5586810817ab30e0208e933bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2074
content:
"In addition to the main changes summarized above and in \r\nSection TS.4.3.1, additional details per CID are given below."


id: 65aa604b5f3dd5bc22f28165cd537e74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13572
content:
"Heat and cold: Observed and projected increases in mean \r\ntemperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are \r\nbroadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. \r\n{2.3.1.1.2, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.1.1, Atlas.4.2, Atlas.4.4}"


id: 2fc8be766e15a8ca8638cc18b590bd2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4943
content:
"This section provides a continental synthesis of changes in CIDs, \r\nsome examples of which are presented in Figure TS.25."


id: 1a2d47d561ac37641bf34542497c450
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1584
content:
"Precipitation declines and aridity trends in Western Africa, Central \r\nAfrica, Southern Africa and the Mediterranean co-occur with \r\ntrends towards increased agricultural and ecological droughts in \r\nthe same regions (medium confidence). Trends towards increased \r\nhydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean \r\n(high confidence) and Western Africa (medium confidence). These \r\ntrends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and \r\nfire weather conditions (high confidence). {8.3.1.6, 8.4.1.6, 11.6, \r\n11.9, 12.4.1.2}"


id: 6ae029d26ab2c1c02019d7bae598aa21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14429
content:
"Wind: Mean wind, extreme winds and the wind energy potential in \r\nNorth Africa and the Mediterranean are projected to decrease across \r\nall scenarios (high confidence). Over Western Africa and Southern \r\nAfrica, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy \r\npotential is projected (medium confidence). There is a projected \r\ndecrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall \r\nover Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa (medium \r\nconfidence). {12.4.1.3}"


id: d61588c4d170e4dbf55fe221d61fe353
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31197
content:
"Snow and ice: There is high confidence that African glaciers and \r\nsnow have very significantly decreased in the last decades and that \r\nthis trend will continue in the 21st century. {12.4.1.4}"


id: 43a40e214ec82200260e9e54690650b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8045
content:
"Additional regional changes in Africa, besides those \r\ndescribed in Section TS.4.3.1, include a projected decrease \r\nin total precipitation in the northernmost and southernmost \r\nregions (high confidence), with Western Africa having a west\u0002to-east pattern of decreasing-to-increasing precipitation \r\n(medium confidence). Increases in heavy precipitation that \r\ncan lead to pluvial floods (high confidence) are projected \r\nfor most African regions, even as increasing dry CIDs \r\n(aridity; hydrological, agricultural and ecological droughts; \r\nfire weather) are projected in the western part of Western \r\nAfrica, Southern Africa and Northern Africa and the \r\nMediterranean regions (medium to high confidence). {8.4, \r\n11.3, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, Atlas.4}"


id: 4d9d0902d63c11e9d15300964d80d0e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9643
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Relative sea level has increased at a higher \r\nrate than GMSL around Africa over the last 3 decades. The present \r\nday 1-in-100-year extreme total water level (ETWL) is between \r\n0.1 m and 1.2 m around Africa, with values around 1 m or above \r\nalong the East and West Southern and Central Eastern Africa coasts. \r\nSatellite-derived shoreline retreat rates up to 1 m yr-1 have been \r\nobserved around the continent from 1984 to 2015, except in South \r\nEastern Africa, which has experienced a shoreline progradation \r\n(growth) rate of 0.1 m yr-1 over the same period. {12.4.1.5}"


id: 4ab8eaa24c2d485ba43c662ede0a5019
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9165
content:
"{2.3, 8.3, 8.4, 9.5, 9.6, 10.6, Box 10.4, 11.4, 11.5, 11.7, 11.9, \r\n12.4.2, Atlas.3.1, Atlas.5, Atlas.5.2, Atlas.5.3, Atlas.5.4, \r\nAtlas.5.5}"


id: 5a9fbea15edf84d69d490cd2fd9a04ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11780
content:
"Due to the high climatological and geographical heterogeneity of \r\nAsia, some assessment findings below are summarized over five \r\nsub-continental areas comprising one or more of the AR6 WGI \r\nreference regions (Box TS.12): East Asia (EAS+ECA), North Asia \r\n(WSB+ESB+RFE), South Asia (SAS), South East Asia (SEA) and South \r\nWest Asia (ARP+WCA)."


id: b1ce221d520fb5f42d9636ca78a49261
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25478
content:
"In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section \r\nTS.4.3.1, further details are given below."


id: e1d5b26ab403c72229dbce8c7140ed77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33030
content:
"Heat and cold: Over all regions of Asia, observed and projected \r\nincreases in mean temperature and a shift toward heat extreme \r\ncharacteristics are broadly similar to the generic pattern described \r\nin Section TS.4.3.1. Over South East Asia, annual mean surface \r\ntemperature will likely increase by a slightly smaller amount than the \r\nglobal average. {Atlas.5.4.4}"


id: c575247a4a3b68a47618c0498c54f386
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28648
content:
"Additional regional changes in Asia, besides those features \r\ndescribed in Section TS.4.3.1, include historical trends \r\nof annual precipitation that show considerable regional \r\ndifferences (high confidence). East Asian Monsoon \r\nprecipitation has changed, with drying in the north and \r\nwetting in the south since the 1950s, and annual mean \r\nprecipitation totals very likely have increased over \r\nmost territories of North Asia since the mid-1970s (high \r\nconfidence). South Asian summer monsoon precipitation \r\ndecreased over several areas since the mid-20th century \r\n(high confidence) but is likely to increase during the 21st \r\ncentury, with enhanced interannual variability. (Box TS.13)"


id: 7de14cf724194dd02da8a0ad107c00cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17379
content:
"Wet and dry: Over East Asia, historical trends of annual precipitation \r\nshow considerable regional differences but with increases over north\u0002west China and South Korea (high confidence). Daily precipitation \r\nextremes have increased over part of the region (high confidence). \r\nExtreme hydrological drought frequency has increased in a region \r\nextending from south-west to north-east China, with projected \r\nincreases of agricultural and ecological drought for 4degC GWL and \r\nfire weather for 2degC and above (medium confidence). {8.3.2, 8.4.2, \r\n11.4.4, 11.4.5, 11.9, 12.4.2.2, Atlas.5.1.2}"


id: 5fe28343d5a3ce3baab36961a37f7879
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12667
content:
"Increases in precipitation and river floods are projected \r\nover much of Asia: in the annual mean precipitation in \r\nEast, North, South and South East Asia (high confidence); \r\nfor extremes in East, South, West Central, North and South \r\nEast Asia (high confidence) and Arabian Peninsula (medium \r\nconfidence); and for river floods in East, South and South \r\nEast Asia and East Siberia (medium confidence). Aridity \r\nin East and West Central Asia is projected to increase, \r\nespecially beyond the middle of the 21st century and global \r\nwarming levels beyond 2degC (medium confidence). Fire \r\nweather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify \r\neverywhere except South East Asia, Tibetan Plateau and \r\nArabian Peninsula (medium confidence)."


id: 7e6d32093ba1929f2e34510c89405a81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17456
content:
"Over North Asia, annual mean precipitation totals have very likely \r\nincreased, causing more intense flooding events, and there is \r\nmedium confidence that the number of dry days has decreased. \r\nConcurrently, total soil moisture is projected to decline extensively \r\n(medium confidence). {8.3.1.3, 8.4.1.6, 11.4.5, 11.5.2, 11.5.5, \r\n12.4.2.2, Atlas.5.2.2}"


id: 5e6df0d5ee0f0ad88b8ddfe365c36869
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12390
content:
"Over South Asia, the summer monsoon precipitation decreased \r\nover several areas since the mid-20th century (high confidence), \r\nwhile it increased in parts of the western HKH and decreased over \r\neastern-central HKH (medium confidence). The frequency of heavy \r\nprecipitation and flood events has increased over several areas \r\nduring the last few decades (medium confidence). {8.3.1.3, 8.3.2.4.1, \r\n8.4.1.5, 8.4.2.4.1, 10.6.3.3, 10.6.3.5, 10.6.3.6, 10.6.3.8, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 10.4, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.4.5, 11.5.5, 12.4.2.2, Box 10.4, \r\nAtlas 5.3.2}"


id: 711f506245bb2f8f8f29d7527d935805
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15429
content:
"Surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia (high \r\nconfidence), but there is a large uncertainty in future \r\ntrends, with medium confidence that mean wind speeds \r\nwill decrease in North Asia, East Asia and Tibetan Plateau \r\nand that tropical cyclones will have decreasing frequency \r\nand increasing intensity overall in South East and East \r\nAsia."


id: 3cf4d8ccf269aed5b3102d694ab7be2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6952
content:
"Over South East Asia, mean precipitation trends are not spatially \r\ncoherent or consistent across datasets and seasons (high confidence). \r\nMost of the region has experienced an increase in rainfall intensity \r\nbut with a reduced number of wet days (medium confidence). Rainfall \r\nis projected to increase in the northern parts of South East Asia and \r\ndecrease in areas in the Maritime Continent (medium confidence). \r\n{8.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.5.5, 11.9, 12.4.2.2, Atlas.3.1, Atlas.5.4.2, Atlas.5.4.4}"


id: 1bb5b3bd40bd94e78c25a3d5454a79a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1821
content:
"Over North Asia, increases in permafrost temperature and \r\nits thawing have been observed over recent decades (high \r\nconfidence). Future projections indicate continuing decline \r\nin seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area \r\nby mid-century (high confidence). Snow-covered areas and \r\nsnow volumes will decrease in most regions of the Hindu \r\nKush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century, and snowline \r\nelevations will rise (high confidence) and glacier volumes \r\nare likely to decline with greater mass loss in higher CO2\r\nemissions scenarios. Heavy snowfall is increasing in East \r\nAsia and North Asia (medium confidence) but with limited \r\nevidence on future changes in hail and snow avalanches."


id: a1908b56358110b8751225aee0372232
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22974
content:
"Over South West Asia, an observed annual precipitation decline \r\nover the Arabian Peninsula since the 1980s of 6.3 mm per decade \r\nis contrasted with observed increases between 1.3 mm and 4.8 mm \r\nper decade during 1960-2013 over the elevated part of eastern \r\nWest Central Asia (very high confidence), along with an increase of \r\nthe frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. {Figure  8.19, \r\nFigure 8.20, 8.3.1.6, 8.4.1.6, 11.9, Table 11.2A, 12.4.2.2, Atlas.5.5}"


id: a7bbbe88eefe51ad2b2c88c6f39a583b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23898
content:
"Wind: Over East Asia, the terrestrial near-surface wind speed has \r\ndecreased and is projected to decrease further in the future (medium \r\nconfidence). Since the mid 1980's, there has been an increase in the \r\nnumber and intensification rate of intense TCs (medium confidence), \r\nwith a significant north-westward shift in tracks and a northward \r\nshift in their average latitude, increasing exposure over East China, \r\nthe Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago (medium \r\nconfidence). {11.7.1, 12.4.2.3}"


id: aa05090ec29337e60b1b750ac7753345
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24289
content:
"Additional regional changes in Australasia, besides those \r\nfeatures described in Section TS.4.3.1, include a significant \r\ndecrease in April to October rainfall in the south-west of \r\nthe state of Western Australia, observed from 1910 to 2019 \r\nand attributable to human influence (high confidence), \r\nwhich is very likely to continue in future. Agricultural \r\nand ecological droughts and hydrological droughts have \r\nincreased over Southern Australia (medium confidence), \r\nand meteorological droughts have decreased over Northern \r\nand Central Australia (medium confidence). Relative sea \r\nlevel has increased over the period 1993-2018 at a rate \r\nhigher than GMSL around Australasia (high confidence). \r\nSandy shorelines have retreated around the region, except \r\nin Southern Australia, where a shoreline progradation rate \r\nof 0.1 m yr-1 has been observed. "


id: 5d5d8c679b8f3df5e3d457926eedaed0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12212
content:
"Over North Asia, there is medium confidence for a decreasing trend \r\nin wind speed during 1979-2018 and for projected continuing \r\ndecreases of terrestrial near-surface wind speed. {2.3.1.4.4, 12.4.2.3}"


id: d5bc127e34718e5ce56c26f19a6c3c93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31147
content:
"Over South East Asia, although there is no significant long-term trend \r\nin the number of TCs, fewer but more extreme TCs have affected the \r\nPhilippines during 1951-2013. {11.7.4, 12.4.2.3}"


id: 208f294f990d1c13bc7a999dcb818319
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2570
content:
"Snow and ice: Over East Asia, decreases have been observed in the \r\nfrequency, and increases in the mean intensity, of snowfall in north\u0002western, north-eastern and south-eastern China and the eastern \r\nTibetan Plateau since the 1960s. Heavy snowfall is projected to \r\noccur more frequently in some parts of Japan (medium confidence). \r\n{12.4.2.4, Atlas.5.1.2}"


id: 96240698573bc2d339166ee8da943492
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21128
content:
"In the future, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding are \r\nvery likely to increase over Northern Australia and Central \r\nAustralia, and they are likely to increase elsewhere in \r\nAustralasia for global warming levels (GWLs) exceeding 2degC \r\nand with medium confidence for a 2degC GWL. Agricultural and \r\necological droughts are projected to increase in Southern \r\nand Eastern Australia (medium confidence) for a 2degC GWL. \r\nFire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia \r\n(high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence). \r\nSnowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region \r\nat high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and \r\nNew Zealand (medium confidence), with glaciers receding \r\nin New Zealand (high confidence). {11.4, Table 11.6, 12.3, \r\n12.4.3, Atlas.6.4, Atlas.6.5}"


id: b927a3a00e6d34de0f6ba01282496740
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26666
content:
"Over North Asia, seasonal snow duration and extent have decreased \r\nin recent decades (high confidence), and maximum snow depth likely\r\nhas increased since the mid-1970s, particularly over the south of the \r\nRussian Far East. {2.3.2.5, 8.3.1.7.2, 9.5, 12.4.2.4, Atlas.5.2, Atlas.5.4}"


id: 4535c80a107b47d783fe2f5049dd496e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8317
content:
"Over South Asia, snow cover has reduced over most of the HKH since \r\nthe early 21st century, and glaciers have thinned, retreated, and lost \r\nmass since the 1970s (high confidence), although the Karakoram \r\nglaciers have either slightly gained mass or are in an approximately \r\nbalanced state (medium confidence). {8.3.1.7.1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 10.4}"


id: 87daae2527212c66fefab1de95489cd5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18898
content:
"Over South West Asia, mountain permafrost degradation at high \r\naltitudes has increased the instability of mountain slopes in the past \r\ndecade (medium confidence). More than 60% of glacier mass in the \r\nCaucasus is projected to disappear under RCP8.5 emissions by the \r\nend of the 21st century (medium confidence). {9.5.1, 9.5.3, 12.4.2.4}"


id: b457098e002c7acd27dd1efbf1058aaf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25890
content:
"Heat and cold: Observed and projected increases in mean \r\ntemperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are \r\nbroadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. \r\n{11.9, 12.4.3.1, Atlas.6}"


id: b7484348c876a10a6c759c161080e05
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26367
content:
"Wet and dry: There is medium confidence that heavy precipitation has \r\nincreased in Northern Australia since 1950. Annual mean precipitation \r\nis projected to increase in the south and west of New Zealand (medium \r\nconfidence) and is projected to decrease in south-west Southern \r\nAustralia (high confidence), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and \r\nin the north and east of New Zealand (medium confidence) for a GWL \r\nof 2degC. There is medium confidence that river flooding will increase \r\nin New Zealand and Australia, with higher increases in Northern\r\nAustralia. Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in \r\nSouthern Australia (high confidence in south-west Southern Australia), \r\nEastern Australia (medium confidence) and in the north and east of \r\nNew Zealand (medium confidence) for GWLs around 2degC. {11.4, 11.9, \r\nTable 11.6, 12.4.3.2, Atlas.6.2}"


id: b3a649609299b426a262d4b7406a33e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:36
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25777
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Over the last three decades, relative sea \r\nlevel has increased at a rate higher than GMSL around Asia (high \r\nconfidence). Gross coastal area loss and shoreline retreat has been \r\nobserved over 1984-2015, but with localized shoreline progradation \r\nin the Russian Far East, East and South East Asia. {12.4.2.5}"


id: 3f57d2ad7a710d2e1de914e33a801550
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7355
content:
"Projections show that regional mean sea level continues to rise (high \r\nconfidence), ranging from 0.4-0.5 m under SSP1-2.6 to 0.8-1.0 m \r\nunder SSP5-8.5 for 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 (median \r\nvalues). This will contribute to more frequent coastal flooding and \r\nhigher ETWL in low-lying areas and coastal erosion along sandy \r\nbeaches (high confidence). There is high confidence that compound \r\neffects of climate change, land subsidence, and human factors will \r\nlead to higher flood levels and prolonged inundation in the Mekong \r\nDelta and other Asian coasts. {9.6.1, 9.6.3, 12.4.2.5}"


id: 62869cf4cb1d6e07c752c3c09257d6b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13068
content:
"South America and Southern Central America (medium confidence). \r\nIn Northern South America and Southern Central America, aridity \r\nand agricultural and ecological droughts are increasing with \r\nmedium confidence. Fire weather is projected to increase over \r\nSouthern Central America and Southern South America with medium \r\nconfidence. {8.3.1.3, 8.4.2.4.5, 11.4.2, 11.9, Table 11.14, Table 11.15, \r\n12.4.4.2, Atlas.7.2.2, Atlas.7.2.4}"


id: b942b4bcf0e9f549631b44e56ab1d3e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26683
content:
"under high CO2 emissions scenarios. TCs in north-eastern and north \r\nAustralia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) but \r\nincrease in intensity except for 'east coast lows' (low confidence). \r\n{12.4.3.3}"


id: 1767bc2bb6eeeacbe946bfdd9e7dffa8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1190
content:
"Snow and ice: Observations in Australia show that the snow season \r\nlength has decreased by 5% in the last five decades. Furthermore, the \r\ndate of peak snowfall in Australia has advanced by 11 days over the \r\nlast 5 decades. Glacier ice volume in New Zealand has decreased by \r\n33% from 1977 to 2018. {12.4.3.4, Atlas.6.2}"


id: 95e07273deef833819a88664c36500dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21081
content:
"Wind: Climate projections indicate an increase in mean wind speed \r\nand in wind power potential over the Amazonian region (Northern \r\nSouth America, South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South \r\nAmerica) (medium confidence). {12.4.4.3}"


id: 141116be1e96d6d42085d3b8028f79ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 667
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Observed changes in marine heatwaves \r\n(MHWs) over the 20th century in the region show an increase in their \r\noccurrence frequency, except along the south-east coast of New \r\nZealand, an increase in duration per event, and the total number of \r\nMHW days per decade, with the change being stronger in the Tasman \r\nSea than elsewhere. The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between \r\n0.5-2.5 m around most of Australia, except the north-western \r\ncoast where 1-in-100-year ETWL can be as high as 6-7 m. {Box 9.1, \r\n12.3.1.5, 12.4.3.5}"


id: c5a1ef71d9dbcfb51c9b8003d1277558
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28672
content:
"Snow and ice: Glacier volume loss and permafrost thawing will \r\nlikely continue in the Andes Cordillera under all climate scenarios, \r\ncausing important reductions in river flow and potentially high\u0002magnitude glacial lake outburst floods. {9.5.1.1, 12.4.4.4}"


id: bf3d4f0893fd424946c0dafbe4b4bebc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27640
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Around Central and South America, relative \r\nsea level has increased at a higher rate than GMSL in the South \r\nAtlantic and the subtropical North Atlantic, and at a rate lower than \r\nGMSL in the East Pacific over the last 3 decades. The present day \r\n1-in-100-year ETWL is highest in Southern and South-Western South \r\nAmerica subregions, where it can be as large as 5 to 6 m. Satellite \r\nobservations for 1984-2015 show shoreline retreat rates along the \r\nsandy coasts of Southern Central America, South-Eastern South \r\nAmerica and Southern South America, while shoreline progradation \r\nrates have been observed in North-Western South America and \r\nNorthern South America. Over the period 1982-2016, the coastlines \r\nexperienced at least one MHW per year, and more along the Pacific \r\ncoast of North Central America and the Atlantic coast of South\u0002Eastern South America. {12.4.4.5}"


id: 29d49fbd93dd76c052c1acec6582f959
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4009
content:
"Heat and cold: Observed and projected increases in mean \r\ntemperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are \r\nbroadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. \r\n{11.3.2, 11.3.5, Table  11.13, 12.4.4.1, Atlas.7.1.2, Atlas.7.2.2, \r\nAtlas.7.2.4}"


id: d9e3e2d1f4f65684ff86e390a81ca800
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31801
content:
"America and Northern Central America (from medium to\r\nhigh confidence). Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones \r\nand dust storms in North America are shifting toward more \r\nextreme characteristics (medium confidence), and both \r\nobservations and projections point to strong changes in the \r\nseasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions \r\nin the coming decades (very high confidence). General \r\nfindings for relative sea level, coastal flooding and erosion \r\nwill not apply for areas with substantial land uplift around \r\nthe Hudson Bay and Southern Alaska. {8.4, 11.4, 11.5, 11.7, \r\n11.9, 12.4, Atlas.9.4}"


id: 2bf6f31eadb24fd8a01621d3b10b997f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4346
content:
"Heat and cold: Observed and projected increases in mean \r\ntemperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are \r\nbroadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. \r\n{11.3, 11.9, 12.4.5.1, 12.5.2, Atlas.8.2, Atlas.8.4}"


id: 898bc5b4be0cb45dc1195da48ed569eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19177
content:
"Wet and dry: There is medium confidence that annual mean \r\nprecipitation has increased in Northern Europe, West and Central \r\nEurope, and Eastern Europe since the early 20th century and \r\nhigh confidence for increases in extreme precipitation. In the \r\nEuropean Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land \r\nprecipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region \r\n(medium confidence). There is medium confidence that river floods \r\nwill decrease in Northern, Eastern and southern Europe for high \r\nwarming levels. {8.3.1.3, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.5.2, Atlas.8.2, Atlas.8.4}"


id: 1a28aa27671ac0c57ab820f1c32aede5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1580
content:
"Heat and cold: Observed and projected increases in mean \r\ntemperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are \r\nbroadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. \r\n{11.3, 11.9, 12.4.6.1, Atlas.9.2, Atlas.9.4}"


id: 8ed61ed373d8d9ff6c95a9743dee8e5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19999
content:
"Wind: Mean wind speed over land has decreased (medium \r\nconfidence), but the role of human-induced climate change has not \r\nbeen established. There is high confidence that mean wind speeds \r\nwill decrease in Mediterranean areas and medium confidence for \r\nsuch decreases in Northern Europe for GWLs exceeding 2degC. The \r\nfrequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) \r\nis projected to decrease (medium confidence). {11.9, 12.4.5.3}"


id: 576c4e6cbaab8e7135cd799f11bbb768
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11246
content:
"Wet and dry: Annual precipitation increased over parts of Eastern \r\nand Central North America during 1960-2015 (high confidence) and \r\nhas decreased in parts of south-western United States and north\u0002western Mexico (medium confidence). River floods are projected to \r\nincrease for all North American regions other than Northern Central \r\nAmerica (medium confidence). {8.4.2.4, 11.4, 11.5, 11.9, 12.4.6.2, \r\nAtlas.9.2, Atlas.9.4}"


id: 94c59e9637bf4866cd114f166b237446
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20918
content:
"Snow and ice: In the Alps, snow cover will decrease below elevations \r\nof 1500-2000 m throughout the 21st century (high confidence). \r\nA reduction of glacier ice volume is projected in the European Alps \r\nand Scandinavia with high confidence and with medium confidence\r\nfor the timing and mass change rates. {9.5.2, 12.4.5.4}"


id: 59fab1995907d0b4eb1c997c4b98bc30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11667
content:
"Agricultural and ecological drought increases have been observed in \r\nWestern North America (medium confidence), and aridity is projected \r\nto increase in the south-western United States and Northern Central \r\nAmerica, with lower summer soil moisture across much of the \r\ncontinental interior (medium confidence). {8.4.1, 11.6.2, 12.4.6.2}"


id: f7fdf7f41fb78de54003532ee24b3fa7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36531
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Over the last three decades, relative sea level \r\nhas increased at a lower rate than GMSL in the sub-polar North \r\nAtlantic coasts of Europe. The present-day 1-in-100-year ETWL is \r\nbetween 0.5-1.5 m in the Mediterranean basin and 2.5-5.0 m in \r\nthe western Atlantic European coasts, around the United Kingdom \r\nand along the North Sea coast, and lower at 1.5-2.5 m along the \r\nBaltic Sea coast. Satellite-derived shoreline change estimates over \r\n1984-2015  indicate  shoreline retreat rates of  around 0.5 m yr-1\r\nalong the sandy coasts of Central Europe and the Mediterranean \r\nand more or less stable shorelines in Northern Europe. Over the \r\nperiod 1982-2016, the coastlines of Europe experienced on average \r\nmore than 2.0 MHW per year, with the eastern Mediterranean and \r\nScandinavia experiencing 2.5-3 MHWs per year. {12.4.5.5}"


id: b5e7d1cca5ea16e6253e85fae504d67f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26149
content:
"Wind: Projections indicate a greater number of the most intense \r\nTCs, with slower translation speeds and higher rainfall potential for \r\nMexico's Pacific Coast, the Gulf Coast and the United States East \r\nCoast (medium confidence). Mean wind speed and wind power \r\npotential are projected to decrease in Western North America (high \r\nconfidence), with differences between global and regional models \r\nlending low confidence elsewhere. {11.4, 11.7, 12.4.6.3}"


id: 32dc5291eacfe226a6bf6416d9012dff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5420
content:
"Snow and ice: It is likely that some high-latitude regions will \r\nexperience an increase in winter snow water equivalent due to the \r\nsnowfall increase prevailing over the warming trend. At sustained \r\nGWLs between 3degC and 5degC, nearly all glacial mass in Western \r\nCanada and Western North America will disappear (medium \r\nconfidence). {9.5.1, 9.5.3, 12.4.6.4, Atlas.9.4}"


id: 3c0a9b2b0e9a8a35ff3f5a052699fe02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6801
content:
"Additional regional changes in North America, besides those \r\nfeatures described in Section TS.4.3.1, include changes \r\nin North American wet and dry CIDs, which are largely \r\norganized by the north-east (more wet) to south-west (more \r\ndry) pattern of mean precipitation change, although heavy \r\nprecipitation increases are widespread (high confidence). \r\nIncreasing evaporative demand will expand agricultural \r\nand ecological drought and fire weather (particularly in \r\nsummertime) in Central North America, Western North "


id: 6b0f0cda6b995531335e898a97460c32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14460
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Around North America, relative sea level has \r\nincreased over the last three decades at a rate lower than GMSL \r\nin the subpolar North Atlantic and in the East Pacific, while it has \r\nincreased at a rate higher than GMSL in the subtropical North Atlantic. \r\nObservations indicate that episodic coastal flooding is increasing \r\nalong many coastlines in North America. Shoreline retreat rates of \r\naround 1 m yr-1 have been observed during 1984-2015 along the \r\nsandy coasts of North-Western North America and Northern Central "


id: 9486aea6a6725f2fa6f68fe994f36684
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20882
content:
"Permafrost warming, loss of seasonal snow cover, and \r\nglacier melt will be widespread (high confidence). There is \r\nhigh confidence that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice \r\nsheets have lost mass since 1992 and will continue to lose \r\nmass throughout this century under all emissions scenarios. \r\nRelative sea level and coastal flooding are projected to \r\nincrease in areas other than regions with substantial land \r\nuplift (medium confidence). {2.3, 3.4, 4.3, 4.5, 7.4, 8.2, 8.4, \r\nBox 8.2, 9.5, 12.4.9, Atlas.11.1, Atlas.11.2}"


id: aff5243ea529c18f9927df05007eb04e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25210
content:
"America, while portions of the United States Gulf Coast have seen \r\na retreat rate approaching 2.5 m yr-1. Sandy shorelines along Eastern \r\nNorth America and Western North America have remained more or \r\nless stable during 1984-2014, but a shoreline progradation rate of \r\naround 0.5 m yr-1 has been observed in North-Eastern North America. \r\n{12.4.6.5}"


id: 5b82d431f2e15b14f710095c43c096dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11899
content:
"Additional regional changes in Small Islands, besides those \r\nfeatures described in Section TS.4.3.1, include a likely\r\ndecrease in rainfall during boreal summer in the Caribbean \r\nand in some parts of the Pacific islands poleward of 20deg \r\nlatitude in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. \r\nThese drying trends will likely continue in coming decades. \r\nFewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected \r\nstarting from a 2degC GWL (medium confidence). {9.6, 11.3, \r\n11.4, 11.7, 11.9, 12.4.7, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox Atlas.2}"


id: ad84d0ebd3d05db386667f80bb498934
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24841
content:
"Heat and cold: Changes in Antarctica showed larger spatial \r\nvariability, with very likely warming in the Antarctic Peninsula since \r\nthe 1950s and no overall trend in East Antarctica. Less warming \r\nand weaker polar amplification are projected as very likely over \r\nthe Antarctic than in the Arctic, with a weak polar amplification \r\nprojected as very likely by the end of the 21st century. {4.3.1, 4.5.1, \r\n7.4.4, 12.4.9.1, Atlas.11.1, Atlas.11.2}"


id: 2883ad7cba772245febc0b8ba9370464
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3790
content:
"Wet and dry: Recent decades have seen a general decrease in \r\nArctic aridity (high confidence), with increased moisture transport \r\nleading to higher precipitation, humidity and streamflow and a \r\ncorresponding decrease in dry days. Antarctic precipitation showed \r\na positive trend during the 20th century. The water cycle is projected \r\nto intensify in both polar regions, leading to higher precipitation \r\ntotals (and a shift to more heavy precipitation) and higher fraction \r\nof precipitation falling as rain. In the Arctic, this will result in higher \r\nriver flood potential and earlier meltwater flooding, altering seasonal \r\ncharacteristics of flooding (high confidence). A lengthening of the fire \r\nseason (medium confidence) and encroachment of fire regimes into \r\ntundra regions (high confidence) are projected. {8.2.3, 8.4.1, Box 8.2, \r\n9.4.1, 9.4.2, 12.4.9.2, Atlas.11.1, Atlas.11.2}"


id: d7c3e558b5429aa5bbd68ff8abae64ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31473
content:
"Heat and cold: It is very likely that most Small Islands have warmed \r\nover the period of instrumental records, and continued temperature \r\nincreases in the 21st century will further increase heat stress in these \r\nregions. {11.3.2, 11.9, 12.4.7.1, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox Atlas.2}"


id: e3cf8c8bcb0c0a71d788879e03bed872
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33319
content:
"Wet and dry: Observed and projected rainfall trends vary spatially \r\nacross the Small Islands. Higher evapotranspiration under a warming \r\nclimate can partially offset future increases or amplify future \r\nreductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more \r\nsevere agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean (medium \r\nconfidence). {11.4.2, 11.9, 12.4.7.2, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross\u0002Chapter Box Atlas.2}"


id: 4ba46c266ec480ffcf9c55f27ac4d033
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9321
content:
"Wind: There is medium confidence in mean wind decrease over \r\nthe Russian Arctic and Arctic North-East North America, but low \r\nconfidence of changes in other Arctic regions and Antarctica. \r\n{12.4.9.3}"


id: 2a3fa7e8647dfff0c21b3be1b920ec53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4070
content:
"Wind: Global changes indicate that Small Islands will face fewer \r\nbut more intense TCs, with spatial inconsistency in projections given \r\npoleward shifts in TC tracks (medium confidence). {11.7.1.2, 11.7.1.5, \r\n12.4.7.3}"


id: 9085368e949b13908929a7d6771bdb47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20275
content:
"Snow and ice: Reductions in spring snow cover extent have \r\noccurred across the Northern Hemisphere since at least 1978 (very \r\nhigh confidence). Permafrost warming and thawing have been \r\nwidespread in the Arctic since the 1980s (high confidence), causing \r\nstrong heterogeneity in surface conditions. There is high confidence\r\nin future glacier- and ice-sheet loss, permafrost warming, decreasing \r\npermafrost extent and decreasing seasonal duration and extent of \r\nsnow cover in the Arctic. Decline in seasonal sea ice coverage along \r\nthe majority of the Arctic coastline in recent decades is projected to \r\ncontinue, contributing to an increase in coastal hazards (including \r\nopen water storm surge, coastal erosion and flooding). {2.3.2, 3.4.2, \r\n3.4.3, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.5, 12.4.6, 12.4.9, Atlas.11.2}"


id: 3a4bd9c52c1e4e2d698376620fc5a0c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6539
content:
"Coastal and oceanic: Continued relative sea level rise is very likely \r\nin the ocean around Small Islands and, along with storm surges \r\nand waves, will exacerbate coastal inundation with the potential to \r\nincrease saltwater intrusion into aquifers in small islands. Shoreline \r\nretreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands (high \r\nconfidence). {9.6.3.3, 12.4.7.4, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2}"


id: f4bf3147fd030336f08ec132fad59a2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36012
content:
"It is virtually certain that surface warming in the Arctic \r\nwill continue to be more pronounced than the global \r\naverage warming over the 21st century. An intensification \r\nof the polar water cycle will increase mean precipitation, \r\nwith precipitation intensity becoming stronger and more\r\nlikely to be rainfall rather than snowfall (high confidence). "


id: c504d215840eff34c39fd6a90f040b35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28576
content:
"with lower confidence for those regions with substantial land uplift \r\n(Arctic North-East North America and Greenland). {12.4.9.5}"


id: cf3f066363c28947301548b41f944763
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30144
content:
"Some types of regions found in different continents face \r\ncommon climate challenges regardless of their location. \r\nThese include biodiversity hot spots that will very likely\r\nsee even more extreme heat and droughts, mountain areas \r\nwhere a projected raising in the freezing level height will \r\nalter snow and ice conditions (high confidence), and tropical \r\nforests that are increasingly prone to fire weather (medium \r\nconfidence). {8.4, Box 8.2, 9.5, 12.3, 12.4}"


id: 2009b9e8d011a7fc86292e06413bea14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2483
content:
"The Indian Ocean, western equatorial Pacific Ocean and \r\nwestern boundary currents have warmed faster than the \r\nglobal average (very high confidence), with the largest \r\nchanges in the frequency of marine heatwaves (MHWs) \r\nprojected in the western tropical Pacific and the Arctic \r\nOcean (medium confidence). The Pacific and Southern Ocean \r\nare projected to freshen and the Atlantic to become more \r\nsaline (medium confidence). Anthropogenic warming is very \r\nlikely to further decrease ocean oxygen concentrations, and \r\nthis deoxygenation is expected to persist for thousands \r\nof years (medium confidence). Arctic sea ice losses are \r\nprojected to continue, leading to a practically ice-free Arctic \r\nin September by the end of the 21st century under high \r\nCO2 emissions scenarios (high confidence). {2.3, 5.3, 9.2, 9.3, \r\nBox 9.2, 12.3.6, 12.4.8}"


id: e28961fb56cbe1c13ff03577eec87e4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33148
content:
"Biodiversity hotspots located around the world will each face unique \r\nchallenges in CID changes. Heat, drought and length of dry season, \r\nwildfire weather, sea surface temperature and deoxygenation are \r\nrelevant drivers to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and have \r\nmarked increasing trends. {12.3, 12.4.10.1}"


id: ed7043b6f4a4837964016d5127fbb3da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34827
content:
"Desert and semi-arid areas are strongly affected by CIDs such as \r\nextreme heat, drought and dust storms, with large-scale aridity \r\ntrends contributing to expanding drylands in some regions (high \r\nconfidence). {12.3, 12.4.10.3}"


id: f3fd2cee502071fe00c90b81627edf9a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35898
content:
"Average warming in mountain areas varies with elevation, but \r\nthe pattern is not globally uniform (medium confidence). Extreme \r\nprecipitation is projected to increase in major mountainous regions \r\n(medium to high confidence depending on location), with potential \r\ncascading consequences of floods, landslides and lake outbursts \r\nin all scenarios (medium confidence). {8.4.1.5, Box  8.2, 9.5.1.3, \r\n9.5.3.3, 9.5.2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 10.4, 11.5.5, 12.3, 12.4.1-12.4.6, \r\n12.4.10.4}"


id: e366a32717ae032620ed27a33fdd685f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33260
content:
"Ocean surface temperature: The Southern Ocean, the eastern \r\nequatorial Pacific, and the North Atlantic Ocean have warmed more \r\nslowly than the global average or slightly cooled. Global warming \r\nof 2degC above 1850-1900 levels would result in the exceedance of \r\nnumerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, \r\nkelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems \r\n(medium confidence). {9.2.13, 12.4.8}"


id: b3cd8b10919a9184066d9b170735db92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25806
content:
"Most tropical forests are challenged by a mix of emerging warming \r\ntrends that are particularly large in comparison to historical variability \r\n(medium confidence). Water cycle changes bring prolonged drought, \r\nlonger dry seasons and increased fire weather to many tropical \r\nforests (medium confidence). {10.5, 12.3, 12.4}"


id: 47ff2dd465c1b33a17e8bde8a59d9bd9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8704
content:
"Marine heatwaves: Moderate increases in MHW frequency are \r\nprojected for mid-latitudes, and only small increases are projected \r\nfor the Southern Ocean (medium confidence). Under the SSP5-8.5 \r\nscenario, permanent MHWs (more than 360 days per year) are \r\nprojected to occur in the 21st century in parts of the tropical ocean, \r\nthe Arctic Ocean, and around 45degS; however, the occurrence of \r\nsuch permanent MHWs can be largely avoided under the SSP1-2.6 \r\nscenario. {Box 9.2, 12.4.8}"


id: 589a5311e183a96ee99990b612f56af9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11436
content:
"Ocean acidity: With the rising CO2 concentration, the ocean surface \r\npH has declined globally over the past four decades (virtually certain). \r\n{2.3.3.5, 5.3.3.2, 12.4.8}"


id: 91c6a0686adedb5abd3387f6414185ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20472
content:
"Ocean salinity: At the basin scale, it is very likely that the Pacific and \r\nthe Southern Ocean have freshened while the Atlantic has become \r\nmore saline. {2.3.3.2, 9.2.2.2, 12.4.8}"


id: 7d34c8a2f3def09ababe05a919ddcbed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17279
content:
"Dissolved oxygen: In recent decades, low oxygen zones in ocean \r\necosystems have expanded. {2.3.4.2, 5.3.3.2, 12.4.8}"


id: cefdce2ee4b113c3e806dfc8485976f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30098
content:
"Sea ice: Arctic perennial sea ice is being replaced by thin, seasonal \r\nice, with earlier spring melt and delayed fall freeze up. There is no \r\nclear trend in the Antarctic sea ice area over the past few decades \r\nand low confidence in its future change. {2.3.2.1.1, 9.3.1.1, 12.4.8, \r\n12.4.9}"


id: d2bb61984cc6ae8c52b5b181e1d353e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30676
content:
"With global warming, urban areas and cities will be affected by more frequent occurrences of extreme climate events, \r\nsuch as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights as well as sea level rise and increases in tropical cyclone \r\nstorm surge and rainfall intensity that will increase the probability of coastal city flooding (high confidence). {Box 10.3, \r\n11.3, 11.5, 12.3, 12.4}"


id: c1280126a6a9762e201cc45e02a4233e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27970
content:
"Urban areas have special interactions with the climate system, for instance in terms of heat islands and altering the water cycle, and \r\nthereby will be more affected by extreme climate events such as extreme heat (high confidence). With global warming, increasing \r\nrelative sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal \r\ncity flooding (high confidence). Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat (high \r\nconfidence). Improvements in urban climate modelling and climate monitoring networks have contributed to understanding the \r\nmutual interaction between regional and urban climate (high confidence). {Box 10.3, 11.3, 11.5, 12.3, 12.4}"


id: c19cdf796cb90b9bb03512966c12aa2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28051
content:
"Despite having a negligible effect on global surface temperature (high confidence), urbanization has exacerbated the effects of global \r\nwarming through its contribution to the observed warming trend in and near cities, particularly in annual mean minimum temperature \r\n(very high confidence) and increases in mean and extreme precipitation over and downwind of the city, especially in the afternoon \r\nand early evening (medium confidence). {2.3, Box 10.3, 11.3, 11.4, 12.3, 12.4}"


id: c10eeb37309141dfd90555ee4f5bcce8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27949
content:
"Combining climate change projections with urban growth scenarios, future urbanization will amplify (very high confidence) the \r\nprojected local air temperature increase, particularly by strong influence on minimum temperatures, which is approximately comparable \r\nin magnitude to global warming (high confidence). Compared to present day, large implications are expected from the combination \r\nof future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and \r\nwarm nights adding to heat stress in cities (very high confidence). {Box 10.2, 11.3, 12.4}"


id: a93a1de50cd73132e2ea37849e3aa4ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24153
content:
"Both sea levels and air temperatures are projected to rise in most coastal settlements (high confidence). There is high confidence in \r\nan increase in pluvial flood potential in urban areas where extreme precipitation is projected to increase, especially at high global \r\nwarming levels. {11.4, 11.5, 12.4}"


id: 4d237cf1221e2d6249ecc29864384a22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9564
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors:\r\nDeliang Chen (Sweden), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Bjorn H. Samset (Norway)"


id: 6978279ec79a49586e535a26583a225a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14187
content:
"Anna  A.  Sorensson (Argentina), Peter Steinle (Australia), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), \r\nMartina  Stockhause (Germany), Daithi Stone (New Zealand), Abigail Swann (United  States \r\nof America), Sophie  Szopa (France), Izuru Takayabu (Japan), Claudia Tebaldi (United  States \r\nof America), Laurent Terray (France), Peter W. Thorne (Ireland/United  Kingdom), Blair Trewin \r\n(Australia), Isabel Trigo (Portugal), Maarten K. van Aalst (The Netherlands), Bart van den Hurk \r\n(The Netherlands), Detlef van Vuuren (The Netherlands), Robert Vautard (France), Carolina Vera \r\n(Argentina), David Viner (United Kingdom), Axel von Engeln (Germany), Karina von Schuckmann \r\n(France/Germany), Xuebin Zhang (Canada)"


id: 8b57316cab0a9632be37adba5a23f18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19445
content:
"Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, \r\nP. Hope, P.  Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Treguier, 2021: Framing, \r\nContext, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group \r\nI  to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., \r\nP. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Pean, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, \r\nE. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekci, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge \r\nUniversity Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147-286, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003."


id: 32cd188712671b15de4e7eb7f791521a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5411
content:
"evolving global efforts in climate change mitigation (efforts to limit \r\nclimate change) and adaptation (efforts to adapt to changes that \r\ncannot be avoided). In this context, WGI assesses, among other \r\ntopics, remaining cumulative carbon emissions budgets for a range \r\nof global warming levels, effects of long-lived and short-lived climate \r\nforcers, observed climate changes and their attribution to human \r\nforcing, and projected changes in sea level and climate extremes. \r\n{Cross-Chapter Box 1.1}"


id: 69e9265cbe272566ae403dc16e796db6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14262
content:
"Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate \r\nChange (IPCC) assesses the current evidence on the physical science \r\nof climate change, evaluating knowledge gained from observations, \r\nreanalyses, paleoclimate archives and climate model simulations, \r\nas well as physical, chemical and biological climate processes. \r\nThis chapter sets the scene for the WGI Assessment, placing it in the \r\ncontext of ongoing global and regional changes, international policy \r\nresponses, the history of climate science and the evolution from \r\nprevious IPCC assessments, including the Special Reports prepared \r\nas part of this Assessment Cycle. This chapter presents key concepts \r\nand methods, relevant recent developments, and the modelling and \r\nscenario framework used in this Assessment."


id: a73419b8eefac6d9f6e37c1108ef01d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23817
content:
"Global surface temperatures increased by about 0.1degC (likely\r\nrange -0.1degC to +0.3degC, medium confidence) between the period \r\naround 1750 and the 1850-1900 period, with anthropogenic \r\nfactors responsible for a warming of 0.0degC-0.2degC (likely range, \r\nmedium confidence). This assessed change in temperature before \r\n1850-1900 is not included in the AR6 assessment of global warming \r\nto date, to ensure consistency with previous IPCC assessment reports, \r\nand because of the lower confidence in the estimate. There was likely\r\na net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0-0.3 W m-2 in 1850-1900 relative \r\nto 1750 (medium confidence), with radiative forcing from increases in \r\natmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations being partially offset by \r\nanthropogenic aerosol emissions and land-use change. Net radiative \r\nforcing from solar and volcanic activity is estimated to be smaller \r\nthan +-0.1 W m-2 for the same period. {Cross-Chapter Box 1.2, 1.4.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 2.3}"


id: e291ad7adc66c88d9dad04dd06b350e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
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"Natural climate variability can temporarily obscure or \r\nintensify anthropogenic climate change on decadal time \r\nscales, especially in regions with large internal interannual\u0002to-decadal variability. At the current level of global warming, \r\nan observed signal of temperature change relative to \r\nthe 1850-1900 baseline has emerged above the levels of \r\nbackground variability over virtually all land regions (high \r\nconfidence). Both the rate of long-term change and the amplitude of \r\ninterannual (year-to-year) variability differ between global, regional \r\nand local scales, between regions and across climate variables, \r\nthus influencing when changes become apparent. Tropical regions \r\nhave experienced less warming than most others, but also exhibit "


id: c0e2cb1f56d77932ea8b9faedacfb106
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"This report provides information of potential relevance to the \r\n2023 global stocktake. The five-yearly stocktakes called for in the \r\nParis Agreement will evaluate alignment among the Agreement's \r\nlong-term goals, its means of implementation and support, and "


id: 4bb11eb30db732c325a76fb3505b1263
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"ocean. While noting their remaining limitations, the WGI report uses \r\nthe most recent generation of reanalysis products alongside more \r\nstandard observation-based datasets. {1.5.2, Annex 1}"


id: ac49874c18ad42656fc6f9603dd57097
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"smaller interannual variations in temperature. Accordingly, the signal \r\nof change is more apparent in tropical regions than in regions with \r\ngreater warming but larger interannual variations (high confidence). \r\n{1.4.2, FAQ 1.2}"


id: 8023d430ca6eda6ff03ea1d0c59b87d4
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content:
"Since AR5, new techniques have provided greater confidence \r\nin attributing changes in climate and weather extremes \r\nto climate change. Attribution is the process of evaluating the \r\nrelative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed \r\nchange or event. This includes the attribution of the causal factors \r\nof changes in physical or biogeochemical weather or climate \r\nvariables (e.g.,  temperature or atmospheric CO2) as done in WGI, \r\nor of the impacts of these changes on natural and human systems \r\n(e.g., infrastructure damage or agricultural productivity), as done in \r\nWGII. Attributed causes include human activities (such as emissions \r\nof greenhouse gases and aerosols, or land-use change), and changes \r\nin other aspects of the climate, or natural or human systems. \r\n{Cross-Working Group Box 1.1}"


id: ffb17c8cac22d99388d66f5bc0908f26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
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content:
"AR6 has adopted a  unified framework of climate risk, \r\nsupported by an increased focus in WGI on low-likelihood, high\u0002impact outcomes. Systematic risk framing is intended to aid the \r\nformulation of effective responses to the challenges posed by current \r\nand future climatic changes and to better inform risk assessment and \r\ndecision-making. AR6 also makes use of the 'storylines' approach, \r\nwhich contributes to building a  robust and comprehensive picture \r\nof climate information, allows for a more flexible consideration and \r\ncommunication of risk, and can explicitly address low-likelihood, \r\nhigh-impact outcomes. {1.1.2, 1.4.4, Cross-Chapter Box 1.3}"


id: cf0ce2f943c42dc473ad39078645ed81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:37
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"The construction of climate change information and \r\ncommunication of scientific understanding are influenced \r\nby the values of the producers, the users and their broader \r\naudiences. Scientific knowledge interacts with pre-existing \r\nconceptions of weather and climate, including values and beliefs \r\nstemming from ethnic or national identity, traditions, religion or lived \r\nrelationships to land and sea (high confidence). Science has values \r\nof its own, including objectivity, openness and evidence-based \r\nthinking. Social values may guide certain choices made during the \r\nconstruction, assessment and communication of information (high \r\nconfidence). {1.2.3, Box 1.1}"


id: ef187298b194992b5e94947028a69c43
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content:
"Capabilities for observing the physical climate system have \r\ncontinued to improve and expand overall, but some reductions \r\nin observational capacity are also evident (high confidence). \r\nImprovements are particularly evident in ocean observing networks \r\nand remote-sensing systems, and in paleoclimate reconstructions \r\nfrom proxy archives. However, some climate-relevant observations \r\nhave been interrupted by the discontinuation of surface stations \r\nand radiosonde launches, and delays in the digitisation of records. \r\nFurther reductions are expected to result from the COVID-19 \r\npandemic. In  addition, paleoclimate archives such as mid-latitude \r\nand tropical glaciers, as well as modern natural archives used for \r\ncalibration (e.g.,  corals and trees), are rapidly disappearing due \r\nto a  host of pressures, including increasing temperatures (high \r\nconfidence). {1.5.1}"


id: 49819afdda51f8ec7eff9b2304935275
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"Reanalyses have improved since AR5 and are increasingly \r\nused as a  line of evidence in assessments of the state and \r\nevolution of the climate system (high confidence). Reanalyses, \r\nwhere atmosphere or ocean forecast models are constrained by \r\nhistorical observational data to create a  climate record of the \r\npast, provide consistency across multiple physical quantities and \r\ninformation about variables and locations that are not directly \r\nobserved. Since AR5, new reanalyses have been developed with \r\nvarious combinations of increased resolution, extended records, more \r\nconsistent data assimilation, estimation of uncertainty arising from \r\nthe range of initial conditions, and an improved representation of the "


id: 6fcff75e1a648b8982bef616a9c0e17f
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"naturally forced changes (Chapter 3, Sections 1.2.1.1 and 1.4.1, and \r\nthe Cross-Working Group Box on Attribution). The core assessment \r\nconclusions from previous IPCC reports are confirmed or strengthened \r\nin this report, indicating the robustness of our understanding of the \r\nprimary causes and consequences of anthropogenic climate change."


id: 236992cea598d4f02d90b35330862daa
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content:
"The role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) \r\nis to critically assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic \r\ninformation relevant to understanding the physical science and impacts \r\nof human-induced climate change and natural variations, including \r\nthe risks, opportunities and options for adaptation and mitigation. \r\nThis task is performed through a comprehensive assessment of the \r\nscientific literature. The robustness of IPCC assessments stems from \r\nthe systematic consideration and combination of multiple lines of \r\nindependent evidence. In addition, IPCC reports undergo one of the \r\nmost comprehensive, objective, open and transparent review and \r\nrevision processes ever employed for science assessments."


id: 6ec3c9e54b7991bc6b241668e501a7e9
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"The WGI contribution to AR6 is focused on physical and biogeochemical \r\nclimate science information, with particular emphasis on regional \r\nclimate changes. These are relevant for mitigation, adaptation \r\nand risk assessment in the context of complex and evolving policy \r\nsettings, including the Paris Agreement, the global stocktake, \r\nthe Sendai Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals \r\n(SDGs) Framework."


id: d134816582647c11e06ccb1eb17615eb
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"The core of this report consists of 12 chapters plus the Atlas \r\n(Figure  1.1), which can together be grouped into three categories \r\n(excluding this framing chapter):"


id: 8a5b7055befd509d4724cb75faba8ffd
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"Starting with the First Assessment Report (FAR; IPCC, 1990a) the \r\nIPCC assessments have been structured into three Working Groups. \r\nWorking Group I (WGI) assesses the physical science basis of climate \r\nchange, Working Group II (WGII) assesses associated impacts, \r\nvulnerability and adaptation options, and Working Group III (WGIII) \r\nassesses mitigation response options. Each report builds on the \r\nearlier comprehensive assessments by incorporating new research \r\nand updating previous findings. The volume of knowledge assessed \r\nand the cross-linkages between the three Working Groups have \r\nsubstantially increased over time."


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"Large-scale Information (Chapters 2, 3 and 4). These chapters \r\nassess climate information from global to continental or ocean-basin \r\nscales. Chapter 2 presents an assessment of the changing state of \r\nthe climate system, including the atmosphere, biosphere, ocean and \r\ncryosphere. Chapter 3 continues with an assessment of the human \r\ninfluence on this changing climate, covering the attribution of observed \r\nchanges, and introducing the fitness-for-purpose approach for the \r\nevaluation of climate models used to conduct the attribution studies. \r\nFinally, Chapter 4 assesses climate change projections, from the near "


id: 41050206bf1fff7de6f3b40653243d2c
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"As part of its Sixth Assessment Cycle, from 2015 to 2022, the IPCC \r\nis producing three Working Group Reports, three targeted Special \r\nReports, a  Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National \r\nGreenhouse Gas Inventories, and a Synthesis Report. The AR6 Special \r\nReports covered the topics of Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5; \r\nIPCC, 2018), Climate Change and Land (SRCCL; IPCC, 2019a) and \r\nThe Ocean and Cryosphere in a  Changing Climate (SROCC; IPCC, \r\n2019b). The SR1.5 and SRCCL are the first IPCC reports jointly \r\nproduced by all three Working Groups. This evolution towards a more \r\nintegrated assessment reflects a  broader understanding of the \r\ninterconnectedness of the multiple dimensions of climate change."


id: 126f772a0f6bdc997f1020862671eac1
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"The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC marks more than \r\n30  years of global collaboration to describe and understand, \r\nthrough expert assessments, one of the defining challenges of the \r\n21st century: human-induced climate change. Since the inception of \r\nthe IPCC in 1988, our understanding of the physical science basis \r\nof climate change has advanced markedly. The amount and quality of \r\ninstrumental observations and information from paleoclimate archives \r\nhave substantially increased. Understanding of individual physical, \r\nchemical and biological processes has improved. Climate model \r\ncapabilities have been enhanced, through the more realistic treatment \r\nof interactions among the components of the climate system, and \r\nimproved representation of the physical processes, in line with the \r\nincreased computational capacities of the world's supercomputers."


id: 77936c181461aa04bc64e70cf423319e
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content:
"This Report assesses both observed changes, and the components \r\nof these changes that are attributable to anthropogenic influence \r\n(i.e.,  human-induced), distinguishing between anthropogenic and "


id: 142b338265889889550d63e40b546732
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"Figure 1.1 | The structure of the AR6 WGI Report. Shown are the three pillars of \r\nthe AR6 WGI, its relation to the WGII and WGIII contributions, and the cross-working\u0002group AR6 Synthesis Report (SYR)."


id: 7b76600ad4626548e20cc2f57c17ad9f
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"to the long term, including climate change beyond 2100, as well as \r\nthe potential for abrupt and 'low-likelihood, high-impact' outcomes."


id: aa97618ff419c052b0d7cc83f01ca7d6
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"Embedded in the chapters are Cross-Chapter Boxes that highlight \r\ncross-cutting issues. Each chapter also includes an Executive \r\nSummary (ES), and several Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs). \r\nTo enhance traceability and reproducibility of report figures and \r\ntables, detailed information on the input data used to create them, \r\nas well as links to archived code, are provided in the Input Data \r\nTables in chapter Supplementary Material. Additional metadata \r\non  the  model input datasets is provided via the report website \r\n(https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/)."


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"Process Understanding (Chapters 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9). These five\r\nchapters provide end-to-end assessments of fundamental Earth \r\nsystem processes and components: the carbon budget and \r\nbiogeochemical cycles (Chapter  5), short-lived climate forcers \r\nand their links to air quality (Chapter 6), the Earth's energy budget \r\nand climate sensitivity (Chapter  7), the water cycle (Chapter  8), \r\nand the ocean, cryosphere and sea level changes (Chapter  9). All \r\nthese chapters provide assessments of observed changes, including \r\nrelevant paleoclimatic information and understanding of processes \r\nand mechanisms as well as projections and model evaluation."


id: 478e4055c8399699f0e1a8552174b8f6
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content:
"The AR6 WGI Report includes a Summary for Policymakers (SPM)\r\nand a Technical Summary (TS). The integration among the three \r\nIPCC Working Groups is strengthened by the inclusion of the Cross\u0002Working-Group Glossary."


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"The AR6 WGI report, as a result of its scoping process, is structured \r\naround topics such as large-scale information, process understanding \r\nand regional information (Figure 1.1). This represents a rearrangement \r\nrelative to the structure of the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fifth \r\nAssessment Report (AR5; IPCC, 2013a), as summarized in Figure 1.2. \r\nThe AR6 approach aims at a  greater visibility of key knowledge \r\ndevelopments that are potentially relevant for policymakers, \r\nincluding climate change mitigation, regional adaptation planning \r\nbased on a risk management framework, and the global stocktake."


id: cc7d4ce1e250d5b9308aa8f76c1438ac
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"Two key subjects presented separately in AR5, paleoclimate and model \r\nevaluation, are now distributed among multiple AR6 WGI chapters. \r\nVarious other cross-cutting themes are also distributed throughout \r\nthis Report. A summary of these themes and their integration across \r\nchapters is described in Table 1.1."


id: 72904f5198a08099b0a3238437802dc4
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"Table 1.1 | Cross-cutting themes in AR6 WGI, and the main chapters that deal with them. Bold numbers in the table indicate the chapters that have extensive coverage."


id: e26a6c53a4bee8bd11d1601150d39fe0
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content:
"Figure 1.2 | Main relations between AR5 WGI and AR6 WGI chapters. The left-hand column shows the AR5 WGI chapter categories. The central column lists the AR5 \r\nWGI chapters, with the colour code indicating their relation to the AR6 WGI structure shown in Figure 1.1: Large-Scale Information (purple), Process Understanding (gold), \r\nRegional Information (light blue) and Whole-Report Information (dark blue). AR5 WGI chapters depicted in white have their topics distributed over multiple AR6 WGI chapters \r\nand categories. The right-hand column explains where to find related information in the AR6 WGI report."


id: 68397649ee13780d5f256a280da9a842
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"Box 7.1, are used to approximate large-scale climate responses of \r\ncomplex Earth System Models (ESMs) and have been used as tools to \r\nexplore the expected global surface air temperature (GSAT) response \r\nto multiple scenarios consistent with those assessed in WGI for the \r\nclassification of scenarios in WGIII. Chapter 6 provides information \r\nabout the impact of climate change on global air pollution, relevant \r\nfor WGII, including Cross-Chapter Box 6.1 on the implications of the \r\nrecent coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) for climate and air quality. \r\nCross-Chapter Box  2.3 in Chapter  2  presents an integrated cross\u0002Working Group discussion of global temperature definitions, with \r\nimplications for many aspects of climate change science."


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"Integration of assessments across the chapters of the WGI Report, \r\nand with WGII and WGIII, occurs in a number of ways, including work \r\non a  common Glossary, risk framework (Cross-Chapter Box  1.3), \r\nscenarios and projections of future large-scale changes, and the \r\npresentation of results at various global warming levels (Section 1.6)."


id: b7a39a3a326eefd4409c11a482f734b8
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"Chapters 8 to 12, and the Atlas, cover topics also assessed by WGII \r\nin several areas, including regional climate information and climate\u0002related risks. This approach produces a more integrated assessment \r\nof impacts of climate change across Working Groups. In particular, \r\nChapter 10 discusses the generation of regional climate information \r\nfor users, the co-design of research with users, and the translation \r\nof information into the user context (in particular directed towards \r\nWGII). Chapter 12 provides a direct bridge between physical climate \r\ninformation (climatic impact-drivers) and sectoral impacts and risk, \r\nfollowing the chapter organization of the WGII Assessment. Notably, \r\nCross-Chapter Box  12.1 draws a  connection to representative key \r\nrisks and Reasons for Concern (RFC)."


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"In addition, Chapter 1 sets out a shared terminology on cross-cutting \r\ntopics, including climate risk, attribution and storylines, as well as \r\nan introduction to emissions scenarios, global warming levels and \r\ncumulative carbon emissions as an overarching topic for integration \r\nacross all three Working Groups."


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"All these integration efforts are aimed at enhancing the bridges \r\nand 'handshakes' among Working Groups, enabling the final cross\u0002Working Group exercise of producing the integrated Synthesis Report."


id: d9efa6168c3b344aa8f96f002d77db3
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"The science assessed in Chapters 2 to 7, such as the carbon budget, \r\nshort-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and emissions metrics, are topics \r\nin common with WGIII, and relevant for the mitigation of climate \r\nchange. This includes a  consistent presentation of the concepts of \r\ncarbon budget and net zero emissions targets within chapters, in \r\norder to support integration in the Synthesis Report. Emissions-driven \r\nemulators (simple climate models), summarized in Cross-Chapter "


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"system have continued, and these are assessed in full in later \r\nchapters. Here, we summarize changes to a  set of key large-scale \r\nclimate indicators over the modern era (1850 to present). We also \r\ndiscuss the changes in relation to the longer-term evolution of the \r\nclimate. These ongoing changes throughout the climate system form \r\na key part of the context of the present Report."


id: fbee804eb51c59a61282501126f887c8
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"Special Reports prepared as part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle; \r\n(ii) to describe key concepts and methods, relevant developments \r\nsince AR5, and the modelling framework used in this Assessment; \r\nand (iii) together with the other chapters of this report, to provide \r\ncontext and support for the WGII and WGIII contributions to AR6, \r\nparticularly on climate information to support mitigation, adaptation \r\nand risk management."


id: 60de89eac79f8c3612b5c3ae9a3307be
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content:
"The IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle occurs in the context of increasingly \r\napparent climatic changes observed across the physical climate \r\nsystem. Many of these changes can be attributed to anthropogenic \r\ninfluences, with impacts on natural and human systems. The AR6 also \r\noccurs in the context of efforts in international climate governance \r\nsuch as the Paris Agreement, which sets a  long-term goal to hold \r\nthe increase in global average temperature to 'well below 2degC above \r\npre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature \r\nincrease to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this \r\nwould significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.' \r\nThis section summarizes key elements of the broader context \r\nsurrounding the assessments made in the present report."


id: b562b0774b099d25979c5a08ebb8c1dd
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"Figure  1.4 documents that the climate system is undergoing \r\na  comprehensive set of changes. It shows a  selection of key \r\nindicators of change through the instrumental era that are \r\nassessed and presented in the subsequent chapters of this report. \r\nAnnual mean values are shown as stripes, with colours indicating \r\ntheir value. The transitions from one colour to another over \r\ntime illustrate how conditions are shifting in all components of \r\nthe climate system. For these particular indicators, the observed \r\nchanges go beyond the yearly and decadal variability of the \r\nclimate system. In this Report, this is termed an 'emergence' of the \r\nclimate signal (Section 1.4.2 and FAQ 1.2)."


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vector_id: 60
content:
"Warming of the climate system is most commonly presented \r\nthrough the observed increase in global mean surface temperature \r\n(GMST). Taking a  baseline of 1850-1900, GMST change until \r\npresent (2011-2020) is 1.09degC [0.95 to 1.20] degC (Section  2.3 and \r\nCross-Chapter Box 2.3). This evolving change has been documented \r\nin previous assessment reports, with each reporting a  higher \r\ntotal global temperature change (Section  1.3 and Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  1.2). The  total change in global surface air temperature \r\n(GSAT) (Section  1.4.1 and Cross-Chapter Box  2.3) attributable \r\nto anthropogenic activities is assessed to be consistent with the \r\nobserved change in GSAT (Section 3.3).1"


