# document

id: d25aab0d401ca49c83507af8e18c385a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Non-climatic hazards such as LUC, habitat fragmentation, pollution and \r\ninvasive species have been the primary drivers of change in terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystems in the past (high confidence) (Figure 2.1). \r\nThese impacts have been extensively documented in reports by \r\nthe IPBES (2021). However, while climate change has not been the \r\npredominant influence to date, its relative impact is increasing (IPCC \r\nSRCCL), with greater interactive effects of non-climate and climate \r\nhazards now occurring (Birk et al., 2020)."


id: 2cb9bb2edb96e209d7eb70cad2656cec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"The major climate hazards at the global level are generally well \r\nunderstood (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021) (WGI AR6 Interactive Atlas). \r\nIncreased temperatures and changes to rainfall and runoff patterns; \r\ngreater variability in temperature, rainfall, river flow and water levels; \r\nand rising sea levels and the increased frequency of extreme events \r\nmeans that greater areas of the world are being exposed to climate \r\nhazards outside of those to which they are adapted (high confidence) \r\n(Lange et al., 2020)."


id: a9d2c6b78f343c7d8c98f8e7289e4355
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Understanding impacts associated with the rapid rate of climate \r\nchange is less developed and more uncertain than changes in mean \r\nclimate. High climate velocity (Loarie et al., 2009) is expected to be \r\nassociated with distribution shifts, incomplete range filling and species \r\nextinctions (high confidence) (Sandel et al., 2011; Burrows et al., 2014), \r\nalthough not all species are equally at risk from high velocity (see \r\nSections 2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3). It is generally assumed that the more rapid \r\nthe rate of change, the greater the impact on species and ecosystems, \r\nbut responses are taxonomically and geographically variable (high \r\nconfidence) (Kling et al., 2020)."


id: 4bca09b66eebcd8046f36b1b79b9a23b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"(b) Long-term change estimates (% of pixel area at 1.5deg resolution), with pixels showing a statistically significant trend (n = 35 years, two-sided Mann-Kendall test, P < 0.05) \r\nin TC, SV or BG. The dominant changes are TC gain with SV loss; BG gain with SV loss; TC gain with BG loss; BG gain with TC loss; SV gain with BG loss; and SV gain with TC loss. \r\nGrey indicates areas with no significant change between 1982 and 2016."


id: a5e7fa329ed1092dcdbe9b0b329a15ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"decade (Woolway and Maberly, 2020). Although the dispersal of the \r\naerial adult stage of some aquatic insects can surpass these climate \r\nvelocities, rates of change under mid- and high-emission scenarios \r\n(RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) are substantially higher than the known \r\nrates of the active dispersal of many species (Woolway and Maberly, \r\n2020). Many species, both terrestrial and freshwater, are not expected \r\nto be able to disperse fast enough to track suitable climates under mid\u0002and high-emission scenarios (medium confidence) (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, \r\nRCP8.5; (Brito-Morales et al., 2018)."


id: 573f49cf0bc6d9eb7311f01163a3ae54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Understanding of the large-scale drivers and the local-to-regional \r\nfeedback processes that lead to extreme events is still limited, and \r\nprojections of extremes and coincident or compounding events remain \r\nuncertain (Prudhomme et al., 2014; Sillmann et al., 2017; Hao et al., 2018; \r\nMiralles et al., 2019). Extreme events are challenging to model because \r\nthey are, by definition, rare, and often occur at spatial and temporal scales \r\nmuch finer than the resolution of climate models (Sillmann et al., 2017; \r\nZscheischler et al., 2018). Additionally, the processes that cause extreme \r\nevents often interact, as is the case for drought and heat events, and they \r\nare spatially and temporally dependent, for example, soil moisture and \r\ntemperature (Vogel et al., 2017). Understanding feedbacks between land "


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"in lakes and rivers in regions with cold winters (O'Reilly et al., 2015) \r\ncan, in part, be attributed to the amplified warming in polar and \r\nhigh-latitude regions (robust evidence, high agreement) (Screen and \r\nSimmonds, 2010; Stuecker et al., 2018)."


id: de1ea7a8d85c96d453616a4803d4ba71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"and atmosphere also remains limited. For example, positive feedbacks \r\nbetween soil and vegetation, or between evaporation, radiation and \r\nprecipitation, are important in the preconditioning of extreme events \r\nsuch as heat waves and droughts, and can increase the severity and \r\nimpact of such events (Miralles et al., 2019)."


id: 6024ea34aec871da8f0e20e4e80fbb7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Shifts in thermal regime: Since AR5, the trend that lake waters mix \r\nless frequently continues (Butcher et  al., 2015; Adrian et  al., 2016; \r\nRichardson et  al., 2017; Woolway et  al., 2017). This results from \r\ngreater warming of surface temperatures relative to deep-water \r\ntemperatures, and the loss of ice during winter which prevents inverse \r\nthermal stratification in north temperate lakes (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Adrian et  al., 2009; Winslow et  al., 2015; Adrian et  al., \r\n2016; Schwefel et al., 2016; Richardson et al., 2017)."


id: ea1f542afe0c6897379480d9139b122b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Oxygen availability: increased water temperature and reduced mixing \r\ncause a decrease in dissolved oxygen. In 400 lakes, dissolved oxygen \r\nin surface and deep waters declined by 4.1 and 16.8%, respectively, \r\nbetween 1980 and 2017 (Jane et al., 2021). The deepest water layers \r\nare expected to experience an increase in hypoxic conditions by >25% \r\ndue to fewer complete mixing events, with strong repercussions for \r\nnutrient dynamics and the loss of thermal habitat (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Straile et  al., 2010; Zhang et  al., 2015; Schwefel \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 8212cc3c640835019879cd4603a5079b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Depending on how the intensification of the global water cycle affects \r\nindividual lake water budgets, the amount of water stored in specific \r\nlakes may increase, decrease or have no substantial cumulative effect \r\n(Notaro et  al., 2015; Pekel et  al., 2016; Rodell et  al., 2018; Busker \r\net  al., 2019; Woolway et  al., 2020b). The magnitude of hydrological \r\nchanges that can be assuredly attributed to climate change remains \r\nuncertain (Hegerl et al., 2015; Gronewold and Rood, 2019; Kraemer \r\net  al., 2020). Attribution of water storage variation in lakes due to \r\nclimate change is facilitated when such variations occur coherently \r\nacross broad geographic regions and long time scales, preferably \r\nabsent of other anthropogenic hydrological influences (Watras et al., \r\n2014; Kraemer et al., 2020). There is increasing awareness that climate \r\nchange contributes to the loss of small temporary ponds which cover a \r\ngreater global area than lakes (Bagella et al., 2016)."


id: abf6bb59ce4992e43572b89c1ab190a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Physical changes are fundamental drivers of change at all levels of \r\nbiological organisation, from individual species, to communities, whole \r\necosystems. The climate hazards specific to freshwater systems not \r\ndocumented elsewhere in AR6 are summarised here."


id: 53fde779dc1c74f404574f0a6de71088
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Since AR5, evidence of changes in the temperature of lakes and rivers \r\nhas continued to increase. Global warming rates for lake surface \r\nwaters were estimated as 0.21degC-0.45degC per decade between 1970 \r\nand 2010, exceeding sea-surface temperature (SST) trends of 0.09degC \r\nper decade between 1980 and 2017 (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Figure 2.2; (Schneider and Hook, 2010; Kraemer et al., 2015; O'Reilly \r\net al., 2015; Woolway et al., 2020b). Warming of lake surface water \r\ntemperatures was variable within regions (O'Reilly et  al., 2015) but \r\nmore homogeneous than deep-water temperature changes (Pilla \r\net al., 2020). Because temperature trends in lakes can vary vertically, \r\nhorizontally and seasonally, complex changes have occurred in the \r\namount of habitat available to aquatic organisms at particular depths \r\nand temperatures (Kraemer et al., 2021)."


id: 604b295a6a2acc2c287a63e949031015
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Lakes fed by glacial melt water are growing in response to climate \r\nchange and glacier retreat (robust evidence, high agreement) (Shugar \r\net al., 2020). Water storage increases on the Tibetan Plateau (Figure 2.3a) \r\nhave been attributed to changes in glacier melt, permafrost thaw, \r\nprecipitation and runoff, in part as a result of climate change (Huang \r\net al., 2011; Meng et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2020a). High confidence in \r\nattribution of these trends to climate change is supported by long-term \r\nground survey data and observations from the Gravity Recovery and \r\nClimate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission (Ma et al., 2010; Rodell \r\net al., 2018; Kraemer et al., 2020)."


id: 9cfd5d1f0cda3cb039956993d0863ce3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"In the Arctic, lake area has increased in regions with continuous \r\npermafrost, and decreased in regions where permafrost is thinner \r\nand discontinuous (robust evidence, high agreement) (See Chapter 4) \r\n(Smith et al., 2005; Andresen and Lougheed, 2015; Nitze et al., 2018; \r\nMekonnen et al., 2021)."


id: 4590177adf0909f967a6cfb72cb9720c
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"Changes in river water temperatures ranged from -1.21degC to +1.076degC \r\nper decade between 1901 and 2010 (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Hari et al., 2006; Kaushal et al., 2010; Jurgelenaite et al., \r\n2012; Li et al., 2012; Latkovska and Apsite, 2016; Marszelewski and \r\nPius, 2016). The more rapid increase in surface water temperature "


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"(b) Left panel: map of temperatures of rivers (1901-2010). Note that the trends of river water temperatures are not directly comparable within rivers or to lakes, since time \r\nperiods are not consistent across river studies. Right panels (a) and (b) depict water temperature trends along a latitudinal gradient highlighting the above average warming rates \r\nin northern Polar Regions (polar amplification). Data sources for lakes: (O'Reilly et al., 2015; Carrea and Merchant, 2019; Woolway et al., 2020a; Woolway et al., 2020b). Data \r\nsources for rivers: (Webb and Walling, 1992; Langan et al., 2001; Daufresne et al., 2004; Moatar and Gailhard, 2006; Lammers et al., 2007; Patterson et al., 2007; Webb and Nobilis, \r\n2007; Durance and Ormerod, 2009; Kaushal et al., 2010; Pekarova et al., 2011; Jurgelenaite et al., 2012; Markovic et al., 2013; Arora et al., 2016; Latkovska and Apsite, 2016; \r\nMarszelewski and Pius, 2016; Jurgelenaite et al., 2017)."


id: 38fe79d02cee346cdbd53efc004dab62
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"species composition as well as having societal impacts (See Chapter \r\n3 in (IPCC, 2018b)) (Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Thomson et al., 2012; \r\nChessman, 2015; Kakouei et al., 2018)."


id: 3e8d82c4477e89124db3ca4cbd8e7b8c
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"(a) Changes in water storage on the Tibetan Plateau. Map of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Asia, showing the percent change in surface water extent from 1984 to 2019 based \r\non LANDSAT imagery. Increases in surface water extent in this region are mainly caused by climate change-mediated increases in precipitation and glacial melt (Source: EC JRC/\r\nGoogle; (Pekel et al., 2016)."


id: 246e2374f60a135727e9550f0e061fe4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"(b) Global map of the median trend in annual mean river flow derived from 7250 observatories around the world (in 1971-2010). Some regions are drying (northeast Brazil, \r\nsouthern Australia and the Mediterranean) and others are wetting (northern Europe), mainly caused by large-scale shifts in precipitation, changes in factors that influence \r\nevapotranspiration and alterations of the timing of snow accumulation and melt driven by rising temperatures (Source: (Gudmundsson et al., 2021)."


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"(a) Future changes in lakes that \r\nexperience intermittent winter ice cover \r\nin the Northern Hemisphere."


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"(a) Spatial distribution of current (light grey areas) and future (coloured areas) Northern Hemisphere lakes that may experience intermittent winter ice cover with climate warming. \r\nProjections were based on current conditions (1970-2010) and four established air temperature projections (Data source: (Sharma et al., 2019)."


id: b254657c1ffb6278ed8918cc1a6b19d7
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"(b) Spatial distribution of projected change in Northern Hemisphere river ice duration under the RCP4.5 emission scenario by 2080-2100 relative to the period 2009-2029. White \r\nareas refer to rivers without ice cover in the period 2009-2029 (zero days). Reference period isolines indicate river ice duration in the period 2009-2029. Coloured areas depict \r\nloss of ice duration in days. Blue areas depict a projected increase in river ice duration. Grey land areas indicate a lack of Landsat-observable rivers (Data source: (Yang et al., 2020)."


id: f863e71cfd814f1c7aa7811066b70f69
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"for future projections of their resistance and resilience towards extreme \r\nevents (Leonard et al., 2014; Stockwell et al., 2020). See Table SM2.1 \r\nfor specific examples of observed changes."


id: d32e499fc2545a131047719af1645256
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"change. For the decline of glaciers, snow and permafrost, see Chapter \r\n4 (this report) and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in \r\na Changing Climate (IPCC, 2019b)."


id: a433e4823dc7151660f63eeb934ccd12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Given the strength of relationship between past GSAT and warming \r\ntrends at lake surfaces (Figure  2.2; Section  2.3.3.1) and projected \r\nincreases in heat waves, surface water temperatures are projected to \r\ncontinue to increase (Woolway et al., 2021). Mean May to October lake \r\nsurface temperatures in 46,557 European lakes were projected to be \r\n2.9degC, 4.5degC and 6.5degC warmer by 2081-2099 compared to the historic \r\nperiod (1981-1999) under RCP2.0, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively \r\n(Woolway et al., 2020a). Under RCP2.6, the average intensity of lake \r\nheat waves increases from 3.7degC to 4.0degC and the average duration \r\nfrom 7.7 to 27.0 days, relative to the historic period (1970-1999). For \r\nRCP8.5, warming increases to 5.4degC and duration increases dramatically \r\nto 95.5 days (medium confidence) (Woolway et al., 2021)."


id: 37728694688dd2244bbb556d911eb09e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Worldwide alterations in lake mixing regimes in response to climate \r\nchange are projected (Kirillin, 2010). Most prominently, monomictic \r\nlakes--undergoing one mixing event in most years--will become \r\npermanently stratified, while lakes that are currently dimictic--mix\u0002ing twice per year--will become monomictic by 2080-2100 (medium \r\nconfidence) (Woolway and Merchant, 2019). Nevertheless, predicting \r\nmixing behaviour remains an important challenge and attribution to \r\nclimate change remains difficult (Schwefel et al., 2016; Bruce et al., \r\n2018)."


id: ad2187147d81f06ebb42b0dd3890b556
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Rivers already under stress from human activities such as urban \r\ndevelopment and farming on floodplains are prone to reduced \r\nresilience to future extreme events (medium confidence) (Woodward \r\net  al., 2016; Talbot et  al., 2018). Thus, the potential for floods to \r\nbecome catastrophic for ecosystem services is exacerbated by LULCC \r\n(Peters et al., 2016; Talbot et al., 2018). However, biota can recover \r\nrapidly from extreme flood events if river geomorphology is not greatly \r\naltered. If instream habitat is strongly affected, recovery, if it occurs, \r\ntakes much longer, resulting in a decline of biodiversity (medium \r\nconfidence) (Thorp et al., 2010; Death et al., 2015; Poff et al., 2018)."


id: d4e8b79154b6795b756b6f5e29540dd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Under climate projections of 3.2degC warming, 4.6% of the ice-covered \r\nlakes in the Northern Hemisphere could switch to intermittent winter \r\nice cover (Figure  2.4a; (Sharma et  al., 2019). Unfrozen and warmer \r\nlakes lose more water to evaporation (Wang et al., 2018b). By 2100, \r\nglobal annual lake evaporation will increase by 16%, relative to 2006-\r\n2015, under RCP8.5 (Woolway et al., 2020b). Moreover, melting of ice \r\ndecreases the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux, thus channelling \r\nmore energy into evaporation (medium confidence) (Wang et  al., \r\n2018b). In the periods 2009-2029 and 2080-2100, average duration \r\nof river ice is projected to decline by 7.3 and 16.7 days under RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5, respectively (Figure 2.4b; (Yang et al., 2020)."


id: 5a64f0bd9d5818b1105a25a3c24e299
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"However, not all extreme events will have a biological impact, \r\ndepending, in particular, on the timing, magnitude and frequency \r\nof events and the antecedent conditions (Bailey and van de Pol, \r\n2016; Stockwell et  al., 2020; Jennings et  al., 2021; Thayne et  al., \r\n2021). For instance, an extreme wind event may have little impact \r\non phytoplankton in a lake that was fully mixed prior to the event. \r\nConversely, the effects of a storm on phytoplankton communities \r\nmay compound when lakes have not yet recovered from a previous \r\nstorm or if periods of drought alternate with periods of intense \r\nprecipitation (limited evidence) (Leonard et al., 2014; Stockwell et al., \r\n2020)."


id: c79a38d2558b10ff2adec74725fd120d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"In summary, extreme events (heat waves, storms and loss of ice) \r\naffect lakes in terms of water temperature, water level, light, oxygen \r\nconcentrations and nutrient dynamics, which, in turn, affect primary \r\nproduction, fish communities and GHG emissions (high confidence). \r\nThese impacts are modified by levels of solar radiation, wind speed \r\nand precipitation (Woolway et al., 2020a). Droughts have a negative \r\nimpact on water quality in streams and lakes by increasing water \r\ntemperature, salinity, the frequency of algal blooms and contaminant \r\nconcentrations, and reducing concentrations of nutrients and dissolved \r\noxygen (medium confidence) (Peters et  al., 2016; Alfieri et  al., \r\n2017; Woolway et  al., 2020a). Understanding how these pressures \r\nsubsequently cascade through freshwater ecosystems will be essential "


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Authors: Rebecca Harris (Australia, Chapter 2, CCP3), Philip Boyd (Australia, Chapter 3), Rita Adrian (Germany, Chapter 2), Jorn Birkmann \r\n(Germany, Chapter 8), Sarah Cooley (USA, Chapter 3), Simon Donner (Canada, Chapter 3), Mette Mauritzen (Norway, Chapter 3), Guy \r\nMidgley (South Africa, Chapter 16); Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK, Chapter 2), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany, Chapter 13, CCP6), \r\nMarie-Fanny Racault (UK/France, Chapter 3), Bjorn Rost (Germany, Chapter 3, CCP6), David Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Stavana E. \r\nStrutz (USA/Chapter 2), Maarten van Aalst (the Netherlands, Chapter 16)."


id: 4264051fb35abc0d7900c4ddbc68bb4
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"Increasingly, the magnitude of extreme events is exceeding the values projected for mean conditions for 2100, regardless of emissions \r\nscenario (Figure Cross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES.1). This has collapsed the timeline that organisms and natural communities have to \r\nacclimate or adapt to climate change (medium confidence). Consequently, rather than having decades to identify, develop and adopt \r\nsolutions, actions to build resilience and assist recovery following extreme events are required quickly if they are to be effective."


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"Recent extremes highlight the characteristics that enable natural systems to resist or recover from events, helping natural resource \r\nmanagers to develop solutions to improve the resilience of natural communities and identify the limits to adaptation (Bergstrom et al., \r\n2021)."


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"Heat waves are now regularly occurring that exceed the physiological thresholds of some species, including birds and other small \r\nendotherms such as flying foxes (high confidence) (Sections 2.4.2.2, 2.4.2.6). Heat waves in Australia, North America and southern Africa \r\nhave caused mass mortality events due to lethal hyperthermia and dehydration (Saunders et al., 2011; Conradie et al., 2020; McKechnie \r\net al., 2021), reducing fitness (du Plessis et al., 2012; Andrew et al., 2017; Sharpe et al., 2019; van de Ven et al., 2019; van de Ven et al., \r\n2020), breeding success, and recruitment (Kennedy et al., 2013; Wiley and Ridley, 2016; Ratnayake et al., 2019) and affecting daily activity \r\nand geographic distributions (Albright et al., 2017). They also place enormous demands on wildlife management agencies and pose risks \r\nto human health (Welbergen et al., 2008)."


id: 36aa782453437097b4a6e56f1b263c50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Recent mortality events affected 14 species of bird and fruit bats (Epomophorus wahlbergi) in South Africa when maximum air \r\ntemperatures exceeded 43-45degC in 2020 (McKechnie et al., 2021). Passerine birds seem more vulnerable to lethal hyperthermia, due to \r\nthe relative inefficiency of panting to lose heat (McKechnie et al., 2021) and also their small size, as heat tolerance generally increases \r\nwith body mass (McKechnie et al., 2021). Several mass mortality events of flying foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus, P. alecto) have occurred \r\nin eastern Australia when maximum air temperatures exceeded 42deg (Welbergen et al., 2008). Nineteen such events occurred between \r\n1994 and 2008, compared to three events prior to 1994. In January 2002, maximum temperatures exceeded the 30-year average mean \r\ndaily maximum by up to 16.5deg and killed >3500 individuals (Welbergen et al., 2008). In 2014, an estimated 45,500 flying foxes died in "


id: e402bd801774d3250bfb2b4c426b85d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"a single day, when average maximum temperatures were >=8degC above average (Bureau of Meteorology, 2014). Drought compounds the \r\nimpacts, as mortality increases when water availability is low (Welbergen et al., 2008; Mo and Roache, 2020; McKechnie et al., 2021)."


id: a9a260b8c4e7e5dc795c75634c92f17e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Antarctica encountered its first recorded heat wave in 2020. Record high temperatures occurred in East Antarctica (Robinson et al., 2020), \r\nwith a maximum (9.2deg) temperature ~7deg above the mean maximum, and minimum temperatures > 0deg. Record high temperatures (18.3deg) \r\nwere also recorded in West Antarctica (Robinson et al., 2020). It is too soon to know the impact on polar life, but such abrupt heating is \r\nexpected to have wide-ranging effects on biota, from flash-flooding and dislodgement of plants, to excess meltwater supplying moisture \r\nto arid polar ecosystems (Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar). Heat waves in Siberia in 2016, 2018 and 2020, with air temperature anomalies \r\n>6deg, were associated with extensive wildfires, pest infestations and melting permafrost (Overland and Wang, 2021)."


id: 79784a0262d9d5c61d4f177d6a1a1780
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Several characteristics of natural systems are associated with greater vulnerability to extreme events (Figure Cross-Chapter \r\nBox EXTREMES.2), knowledge of which can inform solutions to build resilience and aid recovery (Robinson et al., 2020). Resilience \r\ncan be built prior to an event by minimising additional disturbances, such as water extraction from river systems, pollution of aquatic \r\nsystems, fragmentation of land and LULCCs. Managing landscapes to reduce fragmentation and increase habitat extent, connectivity and \r\nheterogeneity, by increasing the number and extent of reserves, may provide local refugia from extreme events and enhance post-event \r\nrecolonisation, but may be less effective for marine systems (Section 3.6). Maintaining taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity \r\nis important, as more diverse systems may be more stable in the face of disturbances (Pimm, 1984; Garcia-Palacios et al., 2018)."


id: a8a934b5e63db78e6acd1f6abf45ca04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Monitoring following extreme events can help identify immediate impacts and the potential for cascading interactions, such as changes to \r\ncompetitive interactions following range shifts, impacts on freshwater ecosystems following wildfires and the spread of invasive species. \r\nOngoing monitoring of recovery and effectiveness of management intervention is important, focussing on habitat-forming species (e.g., "


id: fe53938344798715557c0308c553faf6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"kelp, corals and dominant tree species) and keystone species (e.g., filter-feeders, macrophytes and top predators), as the loss of these \r\nspecies can lead to ecosystem tipping points, beyond which the system may not recover (Collins et al., 2019) (Sections 2.5.3; 3.4.4.1; \r\n3.4.4.1.4; chapters 9-15, this report)."


id: 5525d14161f56c2b7cca2c0bc4fa196f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"The acute impacts of extreme events, in addition to the chronic stress of changing mean conditions, are accelerating and amplifying the \r\nbiological effects of climate change. This amplification is being observed globally and in all realms where life exists. Extreme events are \r\ncompressing the timeline available for natural systems to adapt, and impeding our ability to identify, develop and adopt solutions. Recent \r\nevents highlight the urgent need to mitigate global GHG emissions and identify solutions to halt accelerating impacts on natural systems \r\n(Diaz et al., 2020). "


id: 37f9b7b3466d8ee14683ba937984a7bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 6183
content:
"In summary, with ongoing climate warming and an increase in the \r\nfrequency and intensity of extreme events, observed increases in water \r\ntemperature, losses of ice and shifts in thermal regime are projected to \r\ncontinue (high confidence)."


id: 2b219421719794f69c72fa13caf3898b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"climate drivers (Table 2.2; Table 2.3, Table SM2.1) (Poyry et al., 2009; \r\nChen et al., 2011; Grewe et al., 2013; Gibson-Reinemer and Rahel, 2015; \r\nMacLean and Beissinger, 2017; Pacifici et al., 2017; Anderegg et al., 2019). \r\nRange shifts stem from local population extinctions along warm-range \r\nboundaries (Anderegg et al., 2019) as well as from the colonisation of \r\nnew regions at cold-range boundaries (Ralston et al., 2017)."


id: 4b27b36216af03cbc3eabc25af2224e9
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"Many studies since AR4 have tended not to be designed as attribution \r\nstudies, particularly recent large-scale, multi-species meta-analyses. \r\nThat is to say, all the data available was included in such studies \r\n(from both undisturbed and highly degraded lands and including \r\nvery short-term data sets of <20 years), with little attempt to design \r\nthe studies to differentiate the effects of climate change from those \r\nof other potential confounding variables. These studies tended to \r\nfind greater lag and a lower proportion of species changing in the \r\ndirections expected from climate change, with the authors concluding \r\nthat LULCC, particularly habitat loss and fragmentation, was impeding \r\nwild species from effectively tracking climate change (Lenoir and \r\nSvenning, 2015; Rumpf et al., 2019; Lenoir et al., 2020)."


id: 85306b8c1fec0db6acc1ce980160f27d
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content:
"Global meta-analyses of terrestrial systems in AR3 and AR4 concentrated \r\non long time frames (>20 years) and findings from relatively undisturbed \r\nareas, where confidence in attributing observed changes to climate \r\nchange is high. Recent global and regional meta-analyses (AR5 and \r\nlater) have been broader, including data from degraded and disturbed \r\nareas and studies with shorter time frames (Tables 2.2a,b)."


id: 1241bce162c3d36d25b64b3050f78f42
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content:
"Attribution is strong for species and species-interactions for which \r\nthere is a robust mechanistic understanding of the role of climate \r\non biological processes (high confidence). Unprecedented outbreaks \r\nof spruce beetles occurring from Alaska to Utah in the 1990s were \r\nattributed to warm weather that, in Alaska, facilitated a halving of the \r\ninsect's life cycle from two years to one (Logan et al., 2003). Milder \r\nwinters and warmer growing seasons were likewise implicated in \r\npoleward expansions and increasing outbreaks of several forest pests \r\n(Weed et  al., 2013), leading to the current prediction that 41% of \r\nmajor insect pest species will further increase their damage as climate \r\nwarms, and only 4% will reduce their impacts, while the rest will show \r\nmixed responses (Lehmann et al., 2020)."


id: 3a5801e726cac29e8ceec1c823957932
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Range shifts in a poleward and upward direction, following expected \r\ntrajectories according to local and regional climate trends, are strongly \r\noccurring in freshwater fish populations in North America (Lynch et al., \r\n2016b), Europe (Comte and Grenouillet, 2013; Gozlan et al., 2019) and \r\nCentral Asia (Gozlan et al., 2019) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nCold-water fish, such as coregonids and smelt have been negatively \r\naffected at the equatorial borders of their distributions (Jeppesen et al., \r\n2012). Upward elevational range shifts in rivers and streams have been \r\nobserved. Systematic shifts towards higher elevation and upstream were "


id: 5bb1d7adc0fc28b11a17aff5427ba2fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Poleward and upward range shifts were already attributable to climate \r\nwarming with high confidence in AR5. Publication of observed range \r\nshifts in accord with climate change have accelerated since AR5 and \r\nstrengthened attribution. Ongoing latitudinal and elevational range \r\nshifts driven by regional climate trends are now well-established globally \r\nacross many groups of organisms, and attributable to climate change \r\nwith very high confidence due to very high consistency across a now \r\nvery large body of species and studies and an in-depth understanding \r\nof mechanisms underlying physiological and ecological responses to "


id: 404423b08277a3edc8f2c7602ee0e7db
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content:
"found for 32 stream-fish species in France following regional variation \r\nin climate change (Comte and Grenouillet, 2013). Bull trout (Salvelinus \r\nconfluentus) in Idaho (USA), were estimated to have lost 11-20% \r\n(8-16% per decade) of the headwater stream lengths necessary for \r\ncold-water spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses \r\noccurring in the coldest habitats (Isaak et al., 2010). Range contractions \r\nof the same species have been found in the Rocky Mountains watershed \r\n(Eby et  al., 2014). Likewise, the distribution of the stonefly Zapada \r\nglacier, endemic to the alpine streams of the Glacier National Park in \r\nMontana (USA), has been reduced over several decades by an upstream \r\nretreat to higher, cooler sites as water temperatures have increased and \r\nglacial masses have decreased (Giersch et al., 2015)."


id: a56903c4591f582e46aba3dfa01190b7
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content:
"The melting of glaciers has led to a change in water discharge associated \r\nwith community turnover in glacier-fed streams (Cauvy-Fraunie and \r\nDangles, 2019). For instance, glacier-obligate macro-invertebrates have \r\nstarted disappearing when glacial cover drops below approximately \r\n50% (robust evidence, high agreement), reviewed in (Hotaling et al., \r\n2017). For freshwater invertebrates, no meaningful trends have been \r\ndetected in geographic extent or population size for most species \r\n(Gozlan et al., 2019)."


id: 18ebdc99b3b20afc37078bc7852e10fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"An invasive freshwater cyanobacterium in lakes, Cylindrospermopsis \r\nraciborskii, originating from the tropics, has spread to temperate zones \r\nover the last few decades due to the climate change-induced earlier \r\nincrease of water temperature in spring (Wiedner et al., 2007), aided \r\nby a competitive advantage in eutrophic systems (Ekvall et al., 2013; \r\nUrrutia-Cordero et al., 2016)."


id: 9bcf8b6e7b1d6cf99afb3e3894b8d7c
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vector_id: 22071
content:
"Many high montane possums in Australia have low physiological \r\ntolerance to heat waves, with death occuring due to heat-driven \r\ndehydration at temperatures exceeding 29degC-30degC for >4-5 h over \r\nseveral days (Meade et al., 2018; Turner, 2020). Major declines have \r\nbeen recorded for several species, population extinctions have occured \r\nat lower elevations since the early 2000s, and the white sub-species of \r\nthe lemuroid ringtail possum (Hemibelideus lemuroides) in Queensland, \r\nAustralia, disappeared after heat waves in 2005 (high confidence): \r\nintensive censuses found only 2 individuals in 2009 (Chandler, 2014; \r\nWeber et al., 2021)."


id: deb0e6cdf25e7d867757a274a263aae3
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content:
"Two terrestrial and freshwater species have become extinct in \r\nthe wild, with climate change implicated as a key driver. The cloud \r\nforest-restricted golden toad (Incilius periglenes) was extinct by 1990 in \r\na nature preserve in Costa Rica, driven by successive extreme droughts. \r\nThis occurred in the absence of chytridiomycosis infection, caused by \r\nthe fungal pathogen Bd, verified during field censuses of golden toad \r\npopulations in the process of extinction as well as genetic analyses of \r\nmuseum specimens, although Bd was present in other frog species in "


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content:
"2.2 down to 0.065 hectares), and from 11 plant species down to \r\ntwo (Gynther et al., 2016; Watson, 2016; Woinarski, 2016; Woinarski \r\net al., 2017). The island was unihabited with few non-climatic threats, \r\nproviding high confidence in the attribution of extinction of the BC \r\nmelomys to climate change-driven increases in the frequency and \r\nduration of island inundation (Turner and Batianoff, 2007; Woinarski \r\net al., 2014; Gynther et al., 2016; Watson, 2016; Woinarski et al., 2017)."


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content:
"the region (medium evidence, high agreement) (Pounds et al., 1999; \r\nPounds et al., 2006; Puschendorf et al., 2006; Richards-Hrdlicka, 2013). \r\nThe interaction between expansion of chytrid fungus globally and \r\nlocal climate change is implicated in the extinction of a wide range \r\nof tropical amphibians (high confidence) (see Section 2.4.2.7.1 Case \r\nStudy 2 Chytrid fungus and climate change)."


id: 3c1a9112b15e9af16f2d1b031b8dafde
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"The BC melomys (Melomys rubicola), the only mammal endemic to the \r\nGreat Barrier Reef, inhabited a small (5-hectare) low-lying (<3-m-high) \r\ncay in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia. Recorded as having a \r\npopulation size of several hundred in 1978, this mammal has not \r\nbeen seen since 2009 and was declared extinct in 2016 (Gynther et al., \r\n2016). SLR and documented increases in storm surge and in tropical \r\ncyclones, driven by climate change, led to multiple inundations of the \r\nisland in the 2000s. Between 1998 and 2014, herbacious vegetation, \r\nthe food resource for the BC melomys, declined by 97% in area (from "


id: fc88fd27b5bc5aee987ebd863c28cff4
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vector_id: 37245
content:
"In the IUCN Red List (IUCN, 2019), 16.2% of terrestrial and freshwater \r\nspecies (n = 3,777 species) that are listed as endangered, critically \r\nendangered or extinct in the wild (n = 23,251 species) list climate \r\nchange or severe weather as one of their threats."


id: 16935efa50acba253c2181571a45b32f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1078
content:
"Climate change is already posing major threats to biodiversity, and the most vulnerable plants and animals will probably go extinct. If climate \r\nchange continues to worsen, it is expected to cause many more species to become extinct unless we take actions to improve the resilience of \r\nnatural areas, through protection, connection and restoration. We can also help individual species that we care most about by reducing the \r\nstress that they are under from human activities, and even helping them move to new places as their climate space shifts and they need to \r\nshift to keep up."


id: b148127b2d489a3a2de53ae29aa9031a
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vector_id: 25395
content:
"Fortunately, there are some things we can do to help. We can take action to assist, protect and conserve natural \r\necosystems and prevent the loss of our planet's endangered wildlife, such as:"


id: b51fee0dbe695316c065ce2c78676627
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"'Assisting' the migration of species. This has many names, 'assisted colonisation', 'assisted translocation', 'assisted \r\nmigration' and 'assisted movement'. In effect, it is about helping endangered species to move to a new area with a \r\ngood habitat for them to survive. 'Passive' assisted colonisation focusses on helping species move themselves, while \r\nthe most 'active' form implies picking up individuals and transporting them to a new location. This is different from \r\nreintroductions that are already a normal part of conservation programs. Climate-driven translocations constitute \r\nmoving plants or animals to an area where they have never lived historically, a new location that is now suitable \r\nfor them due to climate change."


id: ef8014d07b4787378b61c2bcddd925
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"This active form of 'assisted colonisation' has been controversial, because exotic species can become invasive \r\nwhen they are moved between continents or oceans. For example, no one would advocate moving polar bears to \r\nAntarctica, as they would likely feast on native penguins, thus causing another conservation problem. However, \r\nmoving species only a few hundred kilometers avoids most adverse outcomes, and this is often all that is needed \r\nto help a wild plant or animal cope with lower levels of climate change. In extreme cases, another type of assisted "


id: 31e2aab23463cb8a9a83cb0eee6e495a
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5264
content:
"adaptation is to preserve species until we can stabilize then reverse climate change, and then reintroduce them to \r\nthe wild. This might include moving them into zoos or into seed or frozen embryo banks."


id: 639c7f8569988d32749002e80bd3fa3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Assisting, protecting and conserving natural ecosystems would help enhance biodiversity overall as well as aiding \r\nalready endangered species. Diverse plant and animal communities are more resilient to disturbances, including \r\nclimate change. A healthy ecosystem also recovers more quickly from increases in extreme events, such as floods, \r\ndroughts and heat waves, that are a part of human-driven climate change. Healthy ecosystems are critical to prevent \r\nspecies' extinctions from climate change, but are also important for human health and well-being, providing clean, \r\nplentiful water, cleaning the air, providing recreation and holiday adventures, and making people feel happier, \r\ncalmer and more content. "


id: e5857b95551dce781bbdef7c4d4a63f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33620
content:
"Figure FAQ2.1.1 |  Possible actions to assist, protect and conserve natural ecosystems and prevent the loss of our planet's endangered \r\nwildlife in the face of continued climate change. (Inspired by the Natural Alliance website(c) Chris Heward/GWCT)."


id: f60abf6a7302656ddbd98facb0f1552a
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content:
"globally. However, thus far, empirical evidence and mechanistic under\u0002standing to inform modelling is too limited to draw general conclu\u0002sions about the nature of current and future climate change-driven \r\nchanges within entire food webs on a global scale (Urban et al., 2016)."


id: 9b4273b1f9b66927defc652d74afbd6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"documentations of entire species driven extinct by recent climate \r\nchange is emerging (medium confidence)."


id: 87eb2928dbd0ad4e4523f077d984e2b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18907
content:
"In a study of 1567 lakes across Europe and North America, Kakouei \r\n(2021) identified climate change as the major driver of increases in \r\nphytoplankton biomass in remote areas with minimal LULCC. Greater \r\ntemperature variability can be more important than long-term \r\ntemperature trends as a driver of zooplankton biodiversity (Shurin \r\net al., 2010). Reductions of winter severity attributed to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change are increasing winter algal biomass, and motile and \r\nphototropic species, at the expense of mixotrophic species (Ozkundakci \r\net al., 2016; Hampton et al., 2017)."


id: 9e0a3bba12ba7e2e63bae50b3d9deda8
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vector_id: 22390
content:
"Analyses indicated that responses in range shifts and timing were \r\nlagging behind the changes expected from regional warming. This type \r\nof lag, where biological response is less than expected from known \r\nunderlying physiology or general climatic limits, is called 'climate debt'. \r\nExamples of climate debt, measured from community composition \r\nchanges, come from birds and butterflies in Europe (Devictor et  al., \r\n2012) and lowland forest herbaceous plants in France (Bertrand \r\net  al., 2011). The French study found that larger debts occurred in \r\ncommunities with warmer baseline conditions and that some of the \r\napparent debt stemmed from the ability of species to tolerate warming \r\nin situ, so no range shift was observed."


id: 6ba0c13d914ca1387f74912abce509af
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content:
"Tropical lakes are prone to loss of deep-water oxygen due to lake \r\nwarming, with negative consequences for their fisheries and their \r\nbiodiversity (Lewis Jr, 2000; Van Bocxlaer et  al., 2012). Many ancient \r\ntropical lakes (Malawi, Tanganyika, Victoria, Titicaca, Towuti and Matano) \r\nhold thousands of endemic animal species (Vadeboncoeur et al., 2011)."


id: f74d12f9f8a31086e41be97c5944baaa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 36424
content:
"Prominent changes in freshwater community composition, such as in\u0002creases in cyanobacteria and warm-tolerant zooplankton species, the \r\nloss of cold-water fish, gains in thermo-tolerant fish, macro-inverte\u0002brates, and floating macrophytes, are occurring (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement, medium confidence) (Adrian et  al., 2016; Hossain \r\net  al., 2016; Short et  al., 2016; Huisman et  al., 2018; Gozlan et  al., \r\n2019). Geothermal streams have provided evidence about community \r\nstructure and ecosystem function at high temperatures. A study of 14 \r\nsuch habitats reported simplified food web structures and shortened \r\npathways of energy flux between consumers and resources (high con\u0002fidence) (O'Gorman et al., 2019). Changes in the relative abundance of \r\nspecies, species composition and biodiversity due to warming trends, \r\nand non-climate-driven changes are to be expected in lakes and rivers "


id: da16de9e74569abc36c91a4f9a772fc9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 31839
content:
"between consumers and resources (O'Gorman et al., 2019). Macrophytes \r\nbenefit from rising water temperatures, but increased shading from \r\nincreased phytoplankton biomass could offset this (Hossain et al., 2016; \r\nShort et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2017a)."


id: 1d96dc6b93aef658580e30157b068f43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 2097
content:
"that the observed advances fell short of what was expected and that \r\na substantial phenological climate debt had been generated (Radchuk \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 776596656398bf8083b8c3a9b64f1d82
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 16344
content:
"Taxonomic groups have differed in their responses (Parmesan, 2007; \r\nThackeray et  al., 2010), and a few have completely diverged from \r\ngeneral trends. For example, seabirds continue to breed with their \r\npre-climate-change phenologies (Keogan et al., 2018). Newer reviews \r\nand analyses reveal differences in responses across continents and time \r\nintervals (Piao et al., 2019). Mean advance in days per decade for plants \r\nwas 5.5 in China and 3.0-4.2 in Europe, but only 0.9 in North America \r\n(Piao et al., 2019). Mean values for the retardation of autumn leaf fall, \r\nwhich can be more influenced by photoperiod and less by temperature \r\nthan spring leaf-out, were 0.36 days per decade in Europe (Menzel et al., \r\n2020), 2.6 days per decade in China and around 3 days per decade in \r\nthe USA (medium evidence, high agreement) (Piao et al., 2019)."


id: 1dfe1318cb7d18773c27d1ea98c9a46e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 2150
content:
"Since AR5, the number of studies of changes in phenology (timing \r\nof biological events) has increased substantially, aided by advances \r\nin remote sensing (Piao et  al., 2019). Phenological studies have \r\ndocumented particularly consistent conclusions on responses of plants \r\nand animals to warming, including the advancement of spring events \r\nand the lengthening of growing seasons in temperate regions (via a \r\ncombination of advancement of spring events and, to a lesser extent, \r\nthe retardation of autumn events) (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table SM2.1) (Menzel et al., 2020). In the Tropics, \r\nby contrast, changes in precipitation have more strongly influenced \r\nanimal phenology than have temperature changes (Cohen et  al., \r\n2018). A meta-analysis compared observed phenological advances in \r\nbirds with expectations due to warming local climates, and concluded "


id: 4764ba2da1b5d216bdfee50b75f48046
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 8620
content:
"Early meta-analyses tested the straightforward hypotheses that \r\nwarming should shift timing earlier and ranges polewards. Once these \r\ntrends had been established (IPCC, 2014b; Parmesan and Hanley, "


id: 997dcee4ea312640bfbc2842c5b201e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"2015), exceptions to them became a focus of study. For example, in \r\nnorthern regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the spring flowering of \r\nsome plants was delayed instead of being advanced as to be expected \r\nwith warming (Cook et al., 2012a; Cook et al., 2012b; Legave et al., \r\n2015). These turned out to be species requiring vernalisation (winter \r\nchilling) to speed their development in spring (Ettinger et al., 2020). \r\nFor these plants, phenological changes result from the combined \r\neffects of advancement caused by spring warming and retardation \r\ncaused by winter warming. Incorporating this level of complexity into \r\nanalyses revealed that a greater proportion of species was responding \r\nto climate change than estimated according to the simple expectation \r\nthat warming would always cause advancement (92% responding \r\nversus 72% from earlier analyses) (Cook et al., 2012b)."


id: c38510f438aedc70fd39a307038faec4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 28329
content:
"Impacts on species physiology in terrestrial and freshwater systems \r\nhave been observed, and attributed to climate change (medium \r\nconfidence). These include changes in tolerance to high temperatures \r\n(Healy and Schulte, 2012; Gunderson and Stillman, 2015; Deery et al., \r\n2021), increased metabolic costs of living at elevated temperatures \r\n(Scheffers et  al., 2016) and shifts in sex ratios in species with \r\ntemperature-dependent sex determination. For example, warmer \r\ntemperatures have driven the masculinisation of lizard populations \r\n(Schwanz and Janzen, 2008; Schwanz, 2016; Edmands, 2021) and the \r\nfeminisation of turtle populations (Telemeco et al., 2009). Skewed sex \r\nratios can lead to mate shortages, reduced population growth, reduced \r\nadaptive potential and increased extinction risk, because genetic \r\ndiversity decreases as fewer individuals mate and heterozygosity is \r\nlost (Mitchell and Janzen, 2010; Edmands, 2021)."


id: f74e8374a6ee810b64007de10f9040a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 36427
content:
"Animal species can show vernalisation equivalent to that in plants \r\n(Stalhandske et  al., 2017). However, a semi-global meta-analysis of \r\nterrestrial animals failed to detect the delaying effects of warming \r\nwinters (Cohen et  al., 2018). The same animal-based meta-analysis \r\ncontrasted phenological changes in temperate-zone animals, which \r\nare principally explained by changes in temperature, with those at \r\nlower latitudes, which tend to follow changes in precipitation (Cohen \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 7934f270f4b5181ade68bd9e8a58aed7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 16637
content:
"Behavioural plasticity (flexibility) such as nest-site selection can \r\nprovide a partial buffer from the effects of increasing temperature by \r\nplacing the individual in a slightly cooler microclimate, but there are \r\nenvironmental and physical limits to this plasticity (medium confidence) \r\n(Refsnider and Janzen, 2016; Telemeco et al., 2017). Plasticity in heat \r\ntolerance (e.g., due to reversible acclimation or acclimatisation) can \r\nalso potentially compensate for rising temperatures (Angilletta Jr, \r\n2009), but ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal \r\ntolerance and acclimation is expected to only slightly reduce the risk of \r\noverheating in even the most plastic taxa (low confidence) (Gunderson \r\nand Stillman, 2015)."


id: a78625370ccaed2a450bacd561af1425
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 23864
content:
"Vitasse et al. (2018), working with alpine trees, found that phenological \r\ndelay with increasing elevation had declined from 34 days/1000 m in \r\n1960 to 22 days/1000 m in 2016, greatly reducing the differences in \r\ntiming between trees growing at different elevations. This reduction \r\nwas greatest after warmer winters, suggesting that winter warming is \r\na principal cause of the overall trend."


id: 70180a76cab37c90ea3686de6661f0df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 15250
content:
"Lian et al. (2020) observed that earlier spring leaf-out in the Northern \r\nHemisphere is causing increases in evapotranspiration that are not fully \r\ncompensated by increased precipitation. The consequence is a greater \r\nsoil moisture deficit in summer, expected to exacerbate impacts of \r\nheat waves as well as drought stress. In Arctic freshwater ecosystems, \r\nHeim et  al. (2015) demonstrated the importance of seasonal cues \r\nfor fish migration, which can be impacted by climate change due to \r\nreduced stream connectivity and fragmentation, earlier peak flows and \r\nincreased evapotranspiration."


id: 8e96516a8563b5d2b58b784df83a0979
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 19957
content:
"Geographic variation in thermal tolerance plasticity is expected to \r\ninfluence the vulnerability and range shifts of species in response to \r\nclimate change (Gunderson and Stillman, 2015; Sun et al., 2021). In \r\nmany ectotherms, plasticity in thermal tolerance increases polewards, \r\nas thermal seasonality increases (Chown et al., 2004), contributing to \r\nhigher vulnerability to warming in tropical organisms (low confidence) \r\n(Huey et al., 2009; Campos et al., 2021). Some species have evolved \r\nextreme upper thermal limits at the expense of plasticity, reflecting \r\nan evolutionary trade-off between these traits (Angilletta et al., 2003; \r\nStillman, 2003). The most heat-tolerant species, such as those from \r\nextreme environments, may therefore be at a greater risk of warming \r\nbecause of an inability to physiologically adjust to thermal change (low \r\nconfidence) (Bozinovic et al., 2011; Overgaard et al., 2014; Magozzi \r\nand Calosi, 2015)."


id: 5ca59f3e3ac6096650c5533a1fcdf90a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 12096
content:
"Precipitation has also been implicated in exceptions to the rule \r\nthat ranges should be shifting to higher elevations. In dry climates, \r\nincreases in precipitation accompanying climate warming can facilitate \r\ndownslope range shifts (Tingley et al., 2012)."


id: ac2af2f826b690fb0f0acf2eaa70ecc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 24619
content:
"Multiple responses can co-occur. Hallfors et  al. (2021), in a study \r\nof 289 Lepidoptera in Finland, found that, with warming, 45% had \r\neither shifted their range northward or advanced their flight season. \r\nThe 15% of species that did both (shifting northward by 113.1 km \r\nand advancing their flight period by 2.7 days per decade, on average, \r\nover a 20-year period) had the largest population increases, and the \r\n40% of species that showed no response had the largest population \r\ndeclines."


id: c303def64a0c4a17c5ccec02f0b0138c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 28264
content:
"Physiological changes have observable impacts on morphology, such as \r\nchanges in body size (and length of appendages), and colour changes \r\nin butterflies, dragonflies and birds (medium confidence) (Galeotti \r\net  al., 2009; Karell et  al., 2011). However, trends are not always \r\nlinear or consistent across realms, taxonomic groups or geographic \r\nregions (Gotanda et  al., 2015). Some morphological changes arise \r\nin response to environmental changes, rather than as the result of \r\ngenetic adaptation or selection for an optimal body type. For example, \r\ndietary changes associated with climate change have led to changes \r\nin chipmunk skull morphology (Walsh et al., 2016)."


id: 59eebfc45045ff1ca604b78db11256e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 11658
content:
"temperature on body size (Zimova et al., 2021). A study of 52 species of \r\nNorth American migratory birds, based on >70,000 specimens, showed \r\nthat spring migration phenology has advanced over the past 40 years, \r\nconcurrent with widespread shifts in morphology (reduced body size \r\nand increased wing length), perhaps to compensate for the increased \r\nmetabolic cost of flight as body size decreases (Weeks et al., 2020)."


id: c1b5f10cd79392f1456ffe6519876a5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28063
content:
"Decreased body size has been suggested as a general response of species \r\nto climate change in freshwater species, given the temperature-related \r\nconstraints of metabolism with larger size. Reduced body size in \r\nresponse to global warming has been documented for freshwater \r\nbacteria, plankton and fish, as well as a shift towards smaller species \r\n(Daufresne et al., 2009; Winder et al., 2009; Jeppesen et al., 2010; Crozier \r\nand Hutchings, 2014; Jeppesen et al., 2014; Farmer et al., 2015; Rasconi \r\net al., 2015; Woodward et al., 2016). However, the lack of systematic \r\nempirical evidence in fresh waters, and confounding effects such as \r\ninteractions between temperature, nutrient availability and predation, \r\nlimit generalisations in attributing observed body size changes to \r\nclimate change (low confidence) (Pomati et al., 2020 Nutrients)."


id: e82c66f8b9355e512ffb604a9c09ebc9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 34036
content:
"2.4.2.7 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Diseases of \r\nWildlife and Associated Impacts on Humans"


id: 4d917bbd0bdd9982febefbcec5df9366
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 9632
content:
"Increased disease incidence is correlated with regional climatic changes, \r\nas expected from a basic understanding of underlying biology and \r\nrelationships between temperature, precipitation, and disease ecology \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Norwegian Polar Institute, 2009; \r\nTersago et al., 2009; Tabachnick, 2010; Paz, 2015; Dewage et al., 2019; \r\nDeksne et al., 2020; Shocket et al., 2020; Couper et al., 2021). Whether \r\nincreases in diseases in wild and domestic animals correspond to an \r\nincreased risk of disease in nearby human populations is complicated "


id: ffebd21ff8eaa3755ab53ca41d2b2035
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37801
content:
"Interactions between morphological changes and changes in phenology \r\nmay facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change (medium \r\nconfidence) (Hedrick et al., 2021). For example, advancing phenology \r\nin migratory species may impose selection on morphological traits \r\n(e.g., wing length) to increase migration speed. If advancing spring \r\nphenology results in earlier breeding, this may offset the effect of rising \r\ntemperatures in the breeding range and reduce the effect of increasing "


id: 7b784dc8b36fc9c77160f128bd1d8cff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17019
content:
"and decreased host richness and abundance, leading to population \r\ncrashes (Larsen and Mouritsen, 2014; Mouritsen et al., 2018). Changes \r\nin temperature and precipitation, especially extreme events, can alter \r\ncommunity structure (Larsen et al., 2011) by increasing or decreasing \r\nparasites and their host organisms, and even altering host behaviour in \r\nways that are advantageous to parasites (Macnab and Barber, 2012)."


id: ba9da5baa99675a5e1f3b21d2608e948
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 26898
content:
"by the potential buffering effects of the local medical system, access \r\nto health care and the socioeconomic status, education, behaviours \r\nand general health of the human population (see also Chapter 7 and \r\nCross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in this chapter)."


id: 88f6a13f6282ac3ff20df5394cc094ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19088
content:
"Climate change not only affects the occurrence of pathogens and \r\ntheir hosts in terms of geographic space but also impacts the \r\ntemporal patterns of disease transmission. Warmer winters allow \r\ngreater over-winter survival of arthropod vectors, which, coupled with \r\nlengthened transmission seasons, drive increases in vector population \r\nsizes, pathogen prevalence, and thus the proportion of vectors infected\r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Laaksonen et  al., 2009; Molnar \r\net al., 2013; Waits et al., 2018). For example, a parasitic nematode lung \r\nworm (Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis) has shortened its larval \r\ndevelopment time by half (from two years to one year), which has \r\nincreased infection rates in North American musk oxen (Norwegian \r\nPolar Institute, 2009)."


id: 264911d02dc404aeb8ed61fcc1d4fc9f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3441
content:
"VBDs require arthropod vector hosts (e.g., insects or ticks), while other \r\ninfectious diseases (e.g., fungi, bacteria and helminths) have free-living \r\nlife stages and/or complex life cycles that require intermediate \r\nhosts (e.g., snails), all of which have temperature-driven rates of \r\ndevelopment and replication/reproduction (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Mordecai et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Moran \r\nand Alexander, 2014; Bernstein, 2015; Marcogliese, 2016; Ogden and \r\nLindsay, 2016; Mordecai et  al., 2017; Short et  al., 2017; Caminade \r\net al., 2019; Cavicchioli et al., 2019; Mordecai et al., 2019; Liu et al., \r\n2020; Rocklov and Dubrow, 2020). Additionally, microbes such as \r\nbacteria thermally adapt to temperature changes through multiple \r\nmechanisms, indicating that warming will not reduce antibiotic \r\nresistance (MacFadden et  al., 2018; Parnanen et  al., 2019; Shukla, \r\n2019; McGough et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Verdugo et al., 2020)."


id: 76d147f53765a67dc6015f434a362a1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16269
content:
"Parasitic helminths can reduce growth and yield, kill livestock and \r\ninfect humans and wildlife, leading to health, agricultural and \r\neconomic losses (Fairweather, 2011; Charlier et  al., 2016; Charlier, \r\n2020). Attribution of increased incidence and risk of helminth disease \r\nto climate change is stronger than for other human diseases, thanks to \r\nlong-term records and careful analysis of other anthropogenic drivers \r\n(e.g., LUC, agricultural/livestock intensification, and anti-helminthic \r\nintervention and resistance) (van Dijk et al., 2008; van Dijk et al., 2010; \r\nFox et al., 2011b; Martinez-Valladares et al., 2013; Charlier et al., 2016; \r\nInnocent et al., 2017; Mehmood et al., 2017)."


id: 562aba7c687dea932d6a54f93dfc9ea4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11044
content:
"In Europe, evidence from laboratory studies, long-term surveillance, \r\nstatistical analyses and modelling shows that multiple helminth \r\npathogens and their host snails have extended their transmission \r\nwindows and increased their survival, fecundity, growth and \r\nabundances (robust evidence, high agreement). Furthermore, they \r\nhave expanded or shifted their ranges poleward due to increases \r\nin temperature, precipitation and humidity (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Lee et al., 1995; Pritchard et al., 2005; Poulin, 2006; van \r\nDijk et al., 2008; van Dijk et al., 2010; Fairweather, 2011; Fox et al., \r\n2011b; Martinez-Valladares et al., 2013; Bosco et al., 2015; Caminade \r\net  al., 2015; Caminade et  al., 2019). These documented changes in \r\nclimate, hosts and pathogens have been linked to a higher incidence \r\nand more frequent outbreaks of disease in livestock across Europe \r\n(very high confidence)."


id: 3e93eb841d025f063e011556ca939b2d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7228
content:
"Droughts reduce the aquatic habitat of some mosquito species while \r\nsimultaneously increasing the availability of stagnant standing pools \r\nof water that are ideal breeding habitats for other species, such as \r\ndengue-vector Aedes mosquitoes (medium evidence, medium agree\u0002ment) (Chareonviriyaphap et al., 2003; Chretien et al., 2007; Padman\u0002abha et al., 2010; Trewin et al., 2013; Paz, 2015). Extreme drought has \r\nbeen associated with an increase in bluetongue virus haemorrhagic \r\ndisease in wildlife in eastern North America, although the mechanisms \r\ninvolved were not identified (Christensen et al., 2020). Heat waves in \r\nsome regions, especially coastal regions, have increased parasitism "


id: b829ead9edf5e0f817b122d63fec24c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26503
content:
"Infection by the chytrid fungus, Bd (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis),\r\ncan cause chytridiomycosis in amphibians. Bd is widely distributed \r\nglobally and has caused catastrophic disease in amphibians, associated \r\nwith the decline of 501 species and extinction of a further 90 species, \r\nprimarily in tropical regions of the Americas and Australia (Scheele \r\net al., 2019; Fisher and Garner, 2020). Bd successfully travelled with "


id: 39ad8856855c7bd5c9a4352ce3ade9c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6451
content:
"2016a; Hotez, 2016b; Bett et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2017; Strutz, \r\n2017; Booth, 2018; Dumic and Severnini, 2018; Carignan et al., 2019; \r\nGorris et al., 2019; Le et al., 2019; Stensgaard et al., 2019b snails and; \r\nBrugueras et al., 2020; Gilbert, 2021)."


id: d947dcb57666434158e00f650f289510
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31695
content:
"high-elevation Andean frog species as they expanded their elevational \r\nranges upward, driven by regional warming, to > 5200 m (Seimon \r\net al., 2017)."


id: be93ae75701da2f6c0667ec725dce7b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27538
content:
"New findings since AR5 from controlled laboratory experiments \r\n(manipulating temperature, humidity and water availability), intensive \r\nanalyses of observed patterns of infection and disease in nature, and \r\nmodelling studies have led to an emerging consensus that interactions \r\nbetween chytrids and amphibians are climate-sensitive, and that the \r\ninteraction of climate change and Bd has driven many of the globally \r\nobserved declines and extinctions of ~90 amphibian species (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Rohr and Raffel, 2010; Puschendorf et al., \r\n2011; Rowley and Alford, 2013; Raffel et al., 2015; Sauer et al., 2018; \r\nCohen et al., 2019a; Sauer et al., 2020; Turner et al., 2021)."


id: ca181eb75cd9a6a14bf8f2605d3e9233
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 29352
content:
"At least six major VBDs affected by climate drivers have recently \r\nemerged in Nepal and are now considered endemic, with climate \r\nchange implicated as a primary driver as LULCC has been assessed \r\nto have a minimal influence on these diseases (high confidence) \r\n(Table SM2.1). There is increasing evidence that climate warming has \r\nextended the elevational distribution of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes\r\nmosquito vectors above 2000 m in Nepal (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Dahal, 2008; Dhimal et al., 2014a; Dhimal et al., 2014b; \r\nDhimal et al., 2015), with similar trends being recorded in neighbouring \r\nHimalayan regions (medium evidence, high agreement) (Phuyal \r\net al., 2020; Dhimal et al., 2021). Host animals in novel areas may be \r\nimmunologically naive, and therefore more vulnerable to severe illness \r\n(Bradley et al., 2005; Hall et al., 2016)."


id: 8369c85fbb4d3e6b38f29e670256b045
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18207
content:
"The 'thermal mismatch hypothesis' posits that vulnerability to disease \r\nshould be higher at warm temperatures in cool-adapted species \r\nand higher at cool temperatures in warmth-adapted species and is \r\ngenerally supported (Pounds et al., 2006). However, the most recent \r\nstudies reveal more complex mechanisms underlying amphibian \r\ndisease-climate change dynamics, including variation in thermal \r\npreferences among individuals in a single amphibian population \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Zumbado-Ulate et al., 2014; Sauer \r\net al., 2018; Cohen et al., 2019b; Neely et al., 2020; Sauer et al., 2020)."


id: 29a0b2bdcedd3edae1a3af38d46c4415
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3982
content:
"As species' geographic ranges and migration patterns are modified \r\nby climate change (Section 2.4.2.1, Table 2.2), pathogens accompany \r\nthem. Diverse vectors and associated parasites, pests and pathogens \r\nof plants and animals are being recorded at higher latitudes and \r\nelevations in conjunction with regional temperature increases and \r\nprecipitation changes (robust evidence, high agreement), although \r\nanalysis of realised disease incidence often lacks the inclusion \r\nof non-climatic versus climate drivers, compromising attribution \r\n(Ollerenshaw and Rowlands, 1959; Purse et al., 2005; Laaksonen et al., \r\n2010; van Dijk et al., 2010; Alonso et al., 2011; Genchi et al., 2011; \r\nPinault and Hunter, 2011; Jaenson et al., 2012; Loiseau et al., 2012; \r\nKweka et al., 2013; Medlock et al., 2013; Dhimal et al., 2014a; Dhimal \r\net al., 2014b seasonal; Siraj et al., 2014; Khatchikian et al., 2015; Hotez, "


id: 2b7258d96687f067e5ea63bedc493285
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4275
content:
"Zoonoses and VBDs that have been historically rare or never documented \r\nin the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of Europe, Asia, and North America, \r\nsuch as anthrax, cryptosporidiosis, elaphostrongylosis, filariasis (Huber \r\net al., 2020), tick-borne encephalitis and tularemia (Evander and Ahlm, \r\n2009; Parkinson et  al., 2014; Pauchard et  al., 2016), are spreading \r\npoleward and increasing in incidence, associated with warming \r\ntemperatures (robust evidence, high agreement, very high confidence) \r\n(Table  SM2.1) (Omazic et  al., 2019). Recent anthrax outbreaks and \r\nmass mortality events of humans and reindeer, respectively, have \r\nbeen linked to abnormally hot summer temperatures that caused the \r\npermafrost to melt and exposed diseased animal carcasses, releasing \r\nthawed, highly infectious Bacillus anthracis spores (medium evidence,"


id: 32530d1c57d88e5b0da2f118541b8c2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5330
content:
"Glidden et al., 2021). Known wildlife hosts of human-shared pathogens \r\nand parasites overall comprise a greater proportion of local species \r\nrichness (18-72% higher) and abundance (21-144% higher) at sites \r\nunder substantial human use (agricultural and urban land) compared \r\nwith nearby undisturbed habitats (Gibb et al., 2020)."


id: e0e76d36538ace9688529922f86d9c71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32882
content:
"medium agreement) (Ezhova et al., 2019; Hueffer et al., 2020; Ezhova \r\net  al., 2021). Multiple contributing factors conspired over different \r\ntimescales to compound a 2016 anthrax outbreak occurring on the \r\nYamal peninsula: (i) rapid permafrost thawing for 5 years preceding the \r\noutbreak, (ii) thick snow cover the year before the outbreak insulated \r\nthe warmed permafrost and kept it from re-freezing, and (iii) anthrax \r\nvaccination rates had decreased or ceased in the region (Ezhova \r\net al., 2019; Ezhova et al., 2021). These precursors converged with an \r\nunusually dry and hot summer that: (i) melted permafrost, creating an \r\nanthrax exposure hazard; (ii) increased the vector insect population; \r\nand (iii) weakened the immune systems of reindeer, thereby increasing \r\ntheir susceptibility (Waits et al., 2018; Hueffer et al., 2020)."


id: 1fa58ad8e45302374f10d33ef3a211ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2413
content:
"Changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and extreme events \r\nhave been associated with more frequent disease outbreaks, increases \r\nin disease incidence and severity, novel diseases and the emergence of \r\nvectors in new areas for wild animals, with a mechanistic understanding \r\nof the roles of these drivers from experimental studies providing high \r\nconfidence for the role of climate change. However, attributing how \r\nthis has impacted human infectious diseases remains difficult, and \r\ndefinitive attribution studies are lacking. The specific role of recent \r\nclimate change is difficult to examine in isolation in most regions where \r\nhuman disease incidence has also been affected by LUC (particularly "


id: 5749120e74dd994caf23e393c58232fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11222
content:
"Anthropogenic impacts, such as disturbances caused by climate \r\nchange, can reduce biodiversity via multiple mechanisms and increase \r\nthe risk of human diseases (limited evidence, low agreement), but more \r\nresearch is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms (Civitello \r\net al., 2015; Young et al., 2017b; Halliday et al., 2020; Rohr et al., 2020; "


id: abc3e3ae22f2f02c006ce76e5424f78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24551
content:
"Climate change is contributing to the spread of diseases in both wildlife and humans. Increased contact between wildlife and human \r\npopulations increases disease risk, and climate change is altering where pathogens that cause diseases and the animals that carry them live. \r\nDisease risk can often be reduced by improving health care and sanitation systems, training the medical community to recognise and treat \r\npotential new diseases in their region, limiting human encroachment into natural areas, limiting wildlife trade and promoting sustainable and \r\nequitable socioeconomic development."


id: 2c4fc472bf17b269ba36e600a20782bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4400
content:
"Diseases transmitted between humans and animals are called zoonoses. Zoonoses comprise nearly two-thirds of \r\nknown human infectious diseases and the majority of newly emerging ones. COVID-19 is the most recent zoonosis \r\nand has killed millions of people globally while devastating economies. The risk posed by Emerging Infectious \r\nDiseases (EIDs) has increased because of: (1) the movement of wild animals and their parasites into new areas as a \r\nresult of climate change, global trade and travel; (2) human intrusion in natural areas and the conversion of natural \r\nareas for agriculture, livestock, the extraction of industrial/raw materials and housing; (3) increased wildlife trade \r\nand consumption; (4) increased human mobility resulting from global trade, war/conflicts and migration, made \r\nfaster and extending farther due to fossil fuel-powered travel; and (5) widespread antimicrobial use, which can \r\npromote antibiotic-resistant infections (Figure FAQ2.2.1)."


id: 4d4ce3214be67103a14c44a63414fb19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9593
content:
"Figure FAQ2.2.1 |  How diseases move from the wild into human populations. Climate change may increase diseases in nature, but whether or not this \r\nleads to an increase in the risk of disease in humans depends upon a range of societal, infrastructural and medical buffers that form a shield protecting humans."


id: 3235da1cd980cd0d87481d1daf556b12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5313
content:
"Climate change can also have complicated, compounding and contradictory effects on pathogens and vectors. \r\nIncreased rainfall creates more habitat for mosquitoes that transmit diseases like malaria, but too much rain washes \r\naway the habitat. Decreased rainfall also increases disease risk when people without reliable access to water use \r\ncontainers to store water where mosquitoes, such as the vectors of dengue fever Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus, \r\nlay their eggs. Hotter temperatures also increase mosquito-bite rate, parasite development and viral replication! \r\nCertain species of snails are intermediate hosts for many helminth parasites that make humans, livestock and wild \r\nanimals sick. When it gets hot, the snails can produce 2-3 times as many infective larvae; however, if it becomes too \r\nhot, many pathogens and their vectors cannot survive or reproduce."


id: 6d9f05b48dd480fa208dd80126549051
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14856
content:
"Humans also contract zoonoses directly through their skin, mucus membranes and lungs, when eating or butchering \r\nanimals or when they come into contact with pathogens that are shed into the air or passed in urine and faeces and \r\ncontaminate water, food, clothing and other surfaces. Any activity that increases contact with wildlife, especially \r\nin high-biodiversity regions like the Tropics and subtropics, increases disease risk. Climate change-related disease \r\nemergence events are often rare but may become more frequent. Fortunately, there are ways to reduce risks and \r\nprotect our health, as described below."


id: 1926404f4e540188a0ee629d11b630ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1450
content:
"Habitat and biodiversity protection. Human encroachment into natural areas, due to expansion of agriculture and livestock, \r\ntimber harvests, extraction of resources and urban development, has increased human contact with wild animals \r\nand creates more opportunities for disease spill-over (transmission from an animal to a new species, including \r\nhumans). By conserving, protecting and restoring wild habitats, we can build healthier ecosystems that provide \r\nother services, such as clean air, clean and abundant water, recreation, spiritual value and well-being, as well as \r\nreduced disease spill-over. If humans must go into wild areas or hunt, they should take appropriate precautions such \r\nas wearing protective clothing, using insect repellant, performing body checks for vectors like ticks and washing \r\ntheir hands and clothing well."


id: 8a16f9e126510c71756b2c365631d858
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19255
content:
"Food resilience. Investing in sustainable agro-ecological farming will alleviate the pressure to hunt wild animals and \r\nreduce the conversion of more land to agriculture/livestock use. Stopping illegal animal trading and poaching and \r\ndecreasing reliance on wild meats and products made from animal parts will reduce direct contact with potentially \r\ninfected animals. This has the added benefit of increasing food security and nutrition, improving soil, reducing \r\nerosion, preserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change."


id: fc675b05fdf1b91d1db7a7d5d5825265
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37218
content:
"Disease prevention and response. The level of protection against infection is linked directly to the level of development and \r\nwealth of a country. Improved education, high-quality medical and veterinary systems, high food security, proper \r\nsanitation of water and waste, high-quality housing, disease surveillance and alarm systems dramatically reduce \r\ndisease risk and improve health. Utilising a One Biosecurity or One Health framework further improves resilience. \r\nSharing knowledge within communities, municipalities, regionally and between national health authorities \r\nglobally is important to assessing, preventing and responding to outbreaks and pandemics more efficiently and \r\neconomically."


id: ee9fca2532a440fb4d01d13f4256b201
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35013
content:
"Humans are facing many direct and indirect challenges because of climate change. The increase in EIDs is one of our \r\ngreatest challenges, due to our ever-growing interactions with wildlife and climatic changes creating new disease \r\ntransmission patterns. COVID-19 is a current crisis, and follows other recent EIDs: SARS, HIV/AIDS, H1N1 influenza, \r\nEbola, Zika and West Nile fever. EIDs have accelerated in recent decades, making it clear that new societal and \r\nenvironmental approaches to wildlife interactions, climate change and health are urgently needed to protect our \r\ncurrent and future well-being as a species."


id: 50c19fc18355fc2e6f19a434ae6dc124
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10150
content:
"ability (Thomas et al., 2001) and decreased host specialisation (Bridle \r\net al., 2014; Lancaster, 2020) (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: a2bc2f819a3d969ee34e45cd24b2c325
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23170
content:
"Away from range margins, individual populations experiencing \r\nregional warming have evolved diverse traits related to climate \r\nadaptation. For example, pitcher-plant mosquitoes (Wyeomyia smithii) \r\nin Pacific Northwest America have evolved to wait for shorter days \r\nbefore initiating diapause. This adaptation to lengthening summers \r\nenables them to delay overwintering until later and add an extra \r\ngeneration each year (Bradshaw and Holzapfel, 2001). Among 26 \r\npopulations of Drosophila subobscura studied on three continents, 22 \r\nexperienced climate warming across two or more decades, and 21 of \r\nthese 22 showed increasing frequency of the chromosome inversion \r\ncharacteristic of populations adapted to hot climates (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Balanya et al., 2006)."


id: 2178169be2e5f71da8583b723661cd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2687
content:
"However, for populations already at their warm range limits, their \r\nability to track climate change in situ would require evolving to survive \r\nand reproduce outside their species' historical climate envelope: \r\nabilities of wild species to do this is not supported by experimental \r\nor observational evidence (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Singer, 2017). Whether or not they can depends on the level of 'niche \r\nconservatism' operating at the species level (Lavergne et al., 2010). \r\nIf a species whose range limits are determined by climate finds itself \r\ncompletely outside of its traditional climate envelope, extinction is \r\nexpected in the absence of 'evolutionary rescue' (Bell and Gonzalez, \r\n2009; Bell et al., 2019)."


id: 23ff8c656877b0dcd9cc11cd4a5598cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3104
content:
"To investigate the evolutionary potential of a species to survive in \r\na novel climate entirely outside its traditional climate envelope, \r\nexperiments have been carried out on ectotherms testing thermal \r\nperformance, thermal tolerance and their evolvabilities (Castaneda \r\net al., 2019; Xue et al., 2019). Tests of thermal performance have been \r\ncomplicated, as both long-term acclimation and trans-generational \r\neffects occur (Sgro et  al., 2016). However, the results to date have \r\nbeen consistent: despite widespread local adaptation to climate across \r\nspecies' ranges, substantial constraints exist regarding the evolution of \r\ngreater stress tolerance (e.g., high temperatures and drought) at warm \r\nrange limits (medium evidence, high agreement) (Hoffmann and Sgro, \r\n2011; MacLean et al., 2019b)."


id: 915ee1048b3518858bf5a98460fb7a63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20401
content:
"In the absence of evolutionary constraints, climate debts can be \r\ncancelled by genetically based increases in thermal tolerance and the \r\nability to perform in high ambient temperatures. In species already \r\nshowing local adaptation to climate, populations currently living at \r\nrelatively cool sites should be able to evolve to adopt the traits of \r\npopulations currently at warmer sites as their local experience of \r\nclimate changes (Singer, 2017; Socolar et al., 2017)."


id: 15bed1b0be1c2d907b9bbbf371d7f939
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 942
content:
"For example, as temperature was experimentally increased, the amount \r\nof genetic variance in the fitness of Drosophila melanogaster decreased; \r\nin hot environments, flies had low evolvability (Kristensen et al., 2015). \r\nThe hypothesis that heat-stress tolerance is evolutionarily constrained \r\nis further supported by experiments in which 22 Drosophila spp. drawn \r\nfrom tropical and temperate climes were subjected to extremes of heat \r\nand cold. They differed, as expected, in cold tolerances, but not in heat \r\ntolerances nor in temperatures at which optimal performances were \r\nobserved (MacLean et al., 2019b)."


id: 9619257e7c9734109d94eb2877f23f93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21122
content:
"An increasing number of studies document evolutionary responses to \r\nclimate change in populations not at their warm range limits (Franks \r\nand Hoffmann, 2012). Organisms with short generation times should \r\nhave a higher capacity to genetically track climate change than species \r\nwith long generation times, such as mammals (Boutin and Lane, 2014). \r\nIndeed, observed evolutionary impacts have been mainly documented \r\nin insects, especially at expanding range margins (Chuang and \r\nPeterson, 2016) where evolutionary changes have increased dispersal "


id: 4a92d1da3652b47392a8d01c4a6d427a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9133
content:
"Plasticity (flexibility) in acclimating to thermal regimes helps organisms \r\nadapt to environmental change. The form and extent of plasticity can \r\nvary among populations experiencing different climates (Kelly, 2019) \r\nand generate phenotypic values outside the prior range for the species, \r\nbut plasticity itself has not yet been observed to evolve in response to \r\nclimate change (Kelly, 2019)."


id: 3bb341d61e93ca18d7b0b14015d27c3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6748
content:
"Relevant genetic changes in nature (e.g., affecting heat tolerance) have \r\nnot yet been shown to alter the boundaries of existing genetic variation \r\nfor any species. Further, a recent global analysis of 91 species found, \r\non average, a 5.4-6.5% decline in genetic diversity within populations \r\nsince the start of the Industrial Revolution, with much larger declines \r\nfor island species (27.6-30.9% reductions) (Leigh et  al., 2019). In \r\nLeigh et al. (2019), genetic declines were documented in both common \r\nand already endangered species of fish, mammals, birds, insects, \r\namphibians and reptiles. These declines in genetic diversity, though \r\nnot caused by climate change, decrease the abilities of wild species \r\nto adapt to climate change via evolutionary responses. Evolutionary \r\nrescue of entire species has not yet been observed in nature, nor is \r\nit expected, based on experimental and theoretical studies (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 57ec65f9da8b977931e08b8229695dda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11336
content:
"Hybridisation between closely related species has increased in recent \r\ndecades as one species shifts its range boundaries and positions itself \r\nmore closely to the other. Hybrids between polar bears and brown \r\nbears have been documented in northern Canada (Kelly et al., 2010). \r\nIn North American rivers, hybridisation between invasive rainbow trout \r\nand native cutthroat trout has increased in frequency as the rainbow \r\ntrout has expanded into warming waters (Muhlfeld et  al., 2014). \r\nWhether climate-changed induced hybridisations can generate novel \r\nclimate adaptations remains to be seen."


id: c3cb034aacd6c0736b6e074952809d0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28373
content:
"In summary, with our present knowledge, evolution is not expected to be \r\nsufficient to prevent the extinction of whole species if a species' climate \r\nspace disappears within the region they inhabit (high confidence)."


id: 32ad98c686ba9d50e8d0173cbac52f91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5393
content:
"AR5 and a meta-analysis found that vegetation at the biome level \r\nshifted poleward latitudinally and upward altitudinally due to \r\nanthropogenic climate change in at least 19 sites in boreal, temperate \r\nand tropical ecosystems from 1700 to 2007 (Gonzalez et  al., 2010; \r\nSettele et  al., 2014). In these areas, temperature increased to \r\n0.4degC-1.6degC above the pre-industrial period (Gonzalez et  al., 2010; \r\nSettele et al., 2014). Field research since the AR5 detected additional \r\npoleward and upslope biome shifts over periods of 24-210 years at \r\nnumerous sites (described below), but were not directly attributed to \r\nanthropogenic climate change as the studies were not designed or \r\nconducted properly for full attribution assessment."


id: 2c2d282e92f1900e36daa710cdac5f55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4377
content:
"Attribution for biome (major vegetation form of an ecosystem) shifts \r\nis complex because of their extensive, sometimes continental, spatial \r\nscale (Whittaker, 1975; Olson et  al., 2001; Woodward et  al., 2004). \r\nTherefore, non-climatic factors strongly influence biome spatial \r\ndistributions (Ellis and Ramankutty, 2008)."


id: 8293e515bb979903247354af1b4d5bd2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18067
content:
"The most robust attribution studies use data from many species, \r\nindividual locations with minimal confounding factors, particularly \r\nobserved recent LULCC, and scale up by analysing multiple locations \r\nacross a large zone between biomes, providing multiple lines of \r\nevidence (Hegerl et  al., 2010; Parmesan et  al., 2013). Multivariate \r\nstatistical analyses aid attribution studies by allowing the assessment \r\nof relative weights among multiple factors, including variables related \r\nto climate change (Gonzalez et  al., 2012). However, drivers often \r\nhave strong, significant interactions with one another, complicating \r\nquantitative assessment of the strength of individual drivers (Parmesan \r\net al., 2013). In these cases, manipulative experiments are critical in \r\nassessing attribution to the drivers of climate change."


id: 1875c8d68b5f8336c60e626ada6b991b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1344
content:
"Many of the recently detected shifts are nevertheless consistent \r\nwith climate change-induced temperature increases and observed in \r\nareas without agriculture, livestock grazing, timber harvesting and \r\nother anthropogenic land uses. For example, in the Andes Mountains \r\nin Ecuador, a biome shift was detected by comparing a survey by \r\nAlexander von Humboldt in 1802 to a re-survey in 2012, making this \r\nthe longest time span in the world for this type of data (Morueta-Holme \r\net al., 2015; Moret et al., 2019). Over 210 years, temperature increased \r\nby 1.7degC (Morueta-Holme et al., 2015) and the upper edge of alpine \r\ngrassland shifted 100-450 m upslope (Moret et al., 2019)."


id: 757073eb6967119ad9d104721c4c0e8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16063
content:
"Other biome shifts consistent with climate change and not substantially \r\naffected by local land use include: northward shifts in Canada of \r\ndeciduous forest into boreal conifer forest, 5 km from 1970-2012 (Sittaro \r\net al., 2017) and 20 km from 1970-2014 (Boisvert-Marsh et al., 2019) "


id: fbe1113ce7c8ce1999678f3d59fa2eec
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 37125
content:
"Certain biomes exhibit a relatively stronger relationship to climate; for \r\nexample, Arctic tundra generally has a distinct ecotone with boreal \r\nconifer forest (Whittaker, 1975). In these areas, attribution of biome "


id: fe4a1c3cefe3f515db4a957c1d995412
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 37537
content:
"change in savannas is not correlated with mean annual temperature \r\nchange (Criado et  al., 2020); however, higher atmospheric CO2\r\nincreases shrub growth in savannas (Nackley et al., 2018; Manea and \r\nLeishman, 2019). A global remote-sensing analysis of biome changes \r\nfrom all causes, including agricultural and grazing expansion and \r\ndeforestation, estimated that 14% of pixels changed between 1981 \r\nand 2012, although this approach can overestimate global changes, \r\nsince it uses a new biome classification system which doubles the \r\nconventional biome classifications (Higgins et al., 2016). In addition to \r\nclimate change, LULCC causes vegetation changes at the biome level \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: bc534703326082efe958941f6666c149
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 27211
content:
"and of temperate conifer into boreal conifer forest, 21 km from 1970-\r\n2015 (Boisvert-Marsh and de Blois, 2021). Research detected upslope \r\nshifts of boreal and sub-alpine conifer forest into alpine grassland at 143 \r\nsites on four continents (41 m from 1901-2018) (Lu et al., 2021) and at \r\nindividual sites in Canada (54 m from 1900-2010) (Davis et al., 2020); \r\nChina (300 m from 1910-2000) (Liang et al., 2016) (33 m from 1985-\r\n2014) (Du et  al., 2018); Nepal (50 m from 1860-2000) (Sigdel et  al., \r\n2018); Russia (150 m from 1954-2006) (Gatti et al., 2019); and the USA \r\n(19 m from 1950-2016) (Smithers et al., 2018) (38 m from 1953-2015) \r\n(Terskaia et al., 2020). Other upslope cases include shifts of temperate \r\nconifer forest in Canada (Jackson et al., 2016) and the USA (Lubetkin \r\net al., 2017), temperate deciduous forest in Switzerland (Rigling et al., \r\n2013) and temperate shrubland in the USA (Donato et al., 2016)."


id: 3a097360436187739f56c66425a112f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Divergent responses to anthropogenic climate change are occurring \r\nwithin and across arid regions, depending on time period, location, \r\ndetection methodology and vegetation type (see Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n3). Emerging shifts in ecosystem structure, functioning and biodiversity \r\nare supported by evidence from modelled impacts of projected climate \r\nand CO2 levels. While observed responsiveness of arid vegetation \r\nproductivity to rising atmospheric CO2 (Fensholt et  al., 2012) may \r\noffset risks from reduced water availability (Fang et al., 2017), climate\u0002and CO2-driven changes are key risks in arid regions, interacting with \r\nhabitat degradation, wildfires and invasive species (Hurlbert et  al., \r\n2019)."


id: 844ea66209cc13bd22be2923d401f939
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 18352
content:
"In summary, anthropogenic climate change caused latitudinal and \r\nelevational biome shifts in at least 19 sites in boreal, temperate and \r\ntropical ecosystems between 1700 and 2007, where temperature \r\nincreased to 0.4degC-1.6degC above the pre-industrial period (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement). Additional cases of 5-20 km northward \r\nand 20-300 m upslope biome shifts between 1860 and 2016, under \r\na mean global temperature increase of approximately 0.9degC above \r\nthe pre-industrial period, are consistent with climate change (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 431dd7c62fb360e01095eb688a3cbd4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Research has detected biome shifts in areas where agriculture, fire \r\nuse or suppression, livestock grazing, harvesting of timber and wood \r\nfor fuel and other local land use substantially altered vegetation, in \r\naddition to changes in climatic factors and CO2 fertilisation. These \r\nstudies were not designed or conducted in a manner to make climate \r\nchange attribution possible, although many vegetation changes \r\nare consistent with climate change. For example, a global review of \r\nobserved changes in tree lines found that, globally, two-thirds of tree \r\nlines have shifted upslope in elevation over the past 50 years or more, \r\n((Hansson et al., 2021)."


id: f72b763e218e5d4c7edea116f420c8f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Upslope and poleward forest shifts have occurred where timber \r\nharvesting or livestock grazing has been abandoned, allowing the \r\nregeneration of trees at sites in Canada (Brice et al., 2019; Wang et al., \r\n2020b), France (Feuillet et al., 2020), Italy (Vitali et al., 2017), Spain \r\n(Ameztegui et al., 2016) and the USA (Wang et al., 2020b) as well as \r\nin mountainous areas across Europe (Cudlin et al., 2017). Intentional \r\nuse of fire drove an upslope forest shift in Peru (Bush et  al., 2015) \r\nwhile mainly human-ignited fires drove the conversion of shrubland \r\nto grassland in a drought-affected area of the USA (Syphard et  al., \r\n2019b). In eastern Canada, timber harvesting and wildfire drove the \r\nconversion of mixed conifer-broadleaf forests to broadleaf-dominated \r\nforests (Brice et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020b)."


id: b6e25a5c4ed53d620f971557567a9c15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Non-native grasses are invading the sagebrush steppes (cold deserts) \r\nin North America (Chambers et  al., 2014) attributed to warming \r\n(Bradley et  al., 2016; Hufft and Zelikova, 2016). In the eastern \r\nsemi-desert (Karoo) of South Africa, annual rainfall increases and a \r\nrainfall seasonality shift (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014) are increasing \r\ngrassiness as arid grasslands expand into semi-desert shrublands (du \r\nToit et al., 2015; Masubelele et al., 2015b; Masubelele et al., 2015a) \r\ncausing fire in areas seldom burned historically (Coates et al., 2016)."


id: 5987afa3c9745771f36d9c1e5f9c88a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 11580
content:
"Shrub encroachment onto savanna has occurred at numerous sites, \r\nparticularly across the Southern Hemisphere, mainly between 1992 \r\nand 2010 (Criado et al., 2020). Globally, overgrazing initiates shrub \r\nencroachment by reducing grasses more than woody plants, while fire \r\nexclusion maintains the shrub cover (D'Odorico et al., 2012; Caracciolo \r\net al., 2016; Bestelmeyer et al., 2018). The magnitude of woody cover "


id: d105f53f63a43c191ec4fbf9756b9c86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 30424
content:
"conifer species (Pinus longaeva and P. flexilis) shifted upslope 19 m from \r\n1950 to 2016 in the Great Basin, USA, (Smithers et al., 2018). Reduced \r\nwinter precipitation caused native annual forbs to recede, resulting in \r\nlong-lasting and potentially unidirectional reductions in diversity in a \r\nCalifornian grassland (Harrison et al., 2018). More frequent extreme hot \r\nand dry weather between 1966 and 2010 caused a decline in diversity \r\nduring the post-fire regeneration phase in the Fynbos of South Africa \r\n(Slingsby et al., 2017), resulting in shifts towards species with higher \r\ntemperature preferences (Slingsby et  al., 2017). In Italy, Del Vecchio \r\net al. (2015) observed increases in plant cover and thermophilic species \r\nin coastal foredune habitats between 1989 and 2012."


id: 62dc623c6a66c11a7c0e383aafc8e12f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13123
content:
"Interactions of drought, warming and land management have caused \r\nvegetation mortality (see Section 2.4.4.3) and reduced vegetation cover \r\nin shrublands, as projected by AR4 (Burrell et al., 2020). Increased heat \r\nand drought are causing the health and abundance of succulent species \r\nto decline (Musil et al., 2009; Schmiedel et al., 2012; Aragon-Gastelum \r\net al., 2014; Kozminska et al., 2019). Hot droughts, in particular, have \r\nbeen shown to reduce population resilience (Kozminska et al., 2019)."


id: 5bbaaf51f041feb458ef148f7d261ed7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Since AR5 (Settele et al. (2014), all five Mediterranean-type ecosystems \r\n(MTEs) of the world have experienced extreme droughts within the \r\npast decade, with South Africa and California reporting their worst on \r\nrecord (robust evidence, high agreement) (Diffenbaugh et  al., 2015; \r\nWilliams et al., 2015a; Garreaud et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2018; Sousa \r\net  al., 2018). Climate change is causing these droughts to become \r\nmore frequent and severe (medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(AghaKouchak et al., 2014; Garreaud et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2018; \r\nSeneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: eb8ba5111c7d735b74399789852a04bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34559
content:
"In southern California, USA, areas of forest and woody shrublands are \r\nshifting to grasslands, driven by a combination of climate and land use \r\nfactors such as increased drought, fire ignition frequency and increases \r\nin nitrogen deposition (robust evidence, high agreement) (Jacobsen \r\nand Pratt, 2018; Park et al., 2018; Park and Jenerette, 2019; Syphard \r\net al., 2019b)."


id: fa1ed0832c5deaee7013f8b46f36cacf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36869
content:
"The effects of climate change on heat, fuel and wildfire ignition limits \r\nshow spatial and temporal variation globally (see Section  2.3.6.1), \r\nbut there have been a number of observed impacts on MTEs (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement). Climate change caused increases in fuel \r\naridity and the area of land burned by wildfires across the western \r\nUSA from 1985 to 2015 (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016). Local and \r\nglobal climatic variability led to a 4-year decrease in the average fire \r\nreturn time in the Fynbos, South Africa, when comparing fires recorded \r\nin 1951-1975 and 1976-2000 (Wilson et al., 2010). In Chile, Gonzalez \r\net al. (2018) reported a significant increase in the number, size, duration \r\nand simultaneity of large fires during the 2010-2015 'megadrought' \r\nwhen compared to the 1990-2009 baseline."


id: c0f272cf8234d121fe8f49c7ef3dd406
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27931
content:
"MTEs show a range of direct responses to various forms of water \r\ndeficit, but have also been affected by increasing fire activity linked \r\nto drought (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016), and interactions between \r\ndrought or extreme weather and fire affecting post-fire ecosystem \r\nrecovery (Slingsby et al., 2017). Responses include shifts in functional \r\ncomposition (Acacio et  al., 2017; Syphard et  al., 2019a), decline of \r\nvegetation health (Hope et al., 2014; Asner et al., 2016a), decline or \r\nloss of characteristic species (White et  al., 2016; Stephenson et  al., \r\n2019), shifts in composition towards more drought- or heat-adapted \r\nspecies and declining diversity (see also section 2.4.4.3) (Slingsby \r\net al., 2017.; Harrison et al., 2018)."


id: 468d331b490c088fe66e6e4e7228cbef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8482
content:
"New studies since AR5, using multiple study designs (experimental \r\nmanipulations in lab and field, meta-analyses and modelling), attribute \r\nclimate change increases in woody cover to elevated atmospheric \r\nCO2 (Donohue et  al., 2013; Nackley et  al., 2018; Quirk et  al., 2019) \r\nand increased rainfall amount and intensity (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Venter et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2018b; Zhang et al., 2019a). "


id: a104df961303105202cf3e25c7f800c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22879
content:
"Species distribution or community composition changes have \r\ncontributed to declines in diversity and/or shifts towards more drought\u0002or heat-adapted species (medium evidence, high agreement). Two "


id: aaeb1f21a8adf8ef91518b8e1cb9240d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24408
content:
"to warming and drought are being ameliorated by increasing CO2\r\nand associated improved water-use efficiency (Roy et al., 2016). For \r\nexample, in a cool temperate grassland experiment, warming led to a \r\nlonger growing season and elevated CO2 further extended growing by \r\nconserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement) (Reyes-Fox et al., 2014)."


id: 6f4cea394560e452278787e47341fc5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15140
content:
"Direct quantification of climate-change drivers is confounded with \r\nlocal LUC such as fire suppression (Archibald, 2016; Venter et  al., \r\n2018), heavy grazing (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; Archer et al., 2017), \r\nremoval of native browsers and, specifically, loss of mega-herbivores \r\nin Africa (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Asner et al., 2016b; \r\nDaskin et  al., 2016; Stevens et  al., 2016; Davies et  al., 2018). The \r\nrelative importance of the climate- and non-climate-related causes of \r\nwoody plants varies between regions, but there is general consensus \r\nthat the impacts of climate change, specifically, increasing rainfall and \r\nrising CO2, are frequent and strong contributing factors of woody-cover \r\nincrease (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 7ba357cac5e007b5d19fd2c393bfa77d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17051
content:
"Overall declines of tropical forest cover (Kohl et al., 2015; Liu et al., \r\n2015; Baccini et al., 2017; Harris et al., 2021), with declines more than \r\ntriple the gains (Harris et  al., 2021) have been driven primarily by \r\ndeforestation and land conversion (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Lewis et al., 2015; Curtis et al., 2018; Assis et al., 2019). In opposition \r\nto this general trend, expansion of tropical forest cover into savannas \r\nand grasslands has occurred in Africa, South America and Australia \r\n(Marimon et al., 2014; Baccini et al., 2017; Ondei et al., 2017; Stevens \r\net al., 2017; Aleman et al., 2018; Staver, 2018; Rosan et al., 2019)."


id: 62826724f9ef619560292141844c6b00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13066
content:
"Extensive woody-cover increases in non-forested biomes is reducing \r\ngrazing potential (Smit and Prins, 2015) as well as changing the \r\ncarbon stored per unit of land area (Gonzalez-Roglich et  al., 2014; \r\nPuttock et  al., 2014; Pellegrini et  al., 2016; Mureva et  al., 2018) \r\nand the hydrological characteristics (Honda and Durigan, 2016; \r\nSchreiner-McGraw et  al., 2020). Woody-cover encroachment also \r\nreduces biodiversity by threatening fauna and flora adapted to open \r\necosystems (Ratajczak et  al., 2012; Smit and Prins, 2015; Pellegrini \r\net al., 2016; Andersen and Steidl, 2019)."


id: b974a1c7c96c5f607f64656fc3141165
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26720
content:
"Increases in productivity of tropical forests (Gatti et al., 2014; Brienen \r\net al., 2015; Baccini et al., 2017), Africa and southeast Asia (Qie et al., \r\n2017) have been attributed to elevated CO2 (robust evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Ballantyne et al., 2012; Brienen et al., 2015; Sitch et al., \r\n2015; Yang et al., 2016; Mitchard, 2018). The rates of these increases \r\nhave been slowing down in the central Amazon (Brienen et al., 2015; \r\nde Meira Junior et al., 2020) and Southeast Asia (Qie et al., 2017). In \r\ncontrast, the carbon sink (and hence the rate of biomass gain) in intact \r\nAfrican forests was stable until 2010 and has only recently started to \r\ndecline, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation in Amazonia \r\nand Africa, the difference being driven by rates of tree mortality \r\n(Hubau et al., 2020). At the global level, Hubau et al. (2020) argue that \r\nthe carbon sink associated with intact tropical forests peaked in the \r\n1990s and is now in decline."


id: 54f89ea3c9ff13f32284878aede17335
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10827
content:
"Remote sensing shows overall increasing trends in both the annual \r\nmaximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and annual \r\nmean NDVI in global grassland ecosystems between 1982 and 2011 \r\n(Gao et al., 2016). Multiple lines of evidence indicate that changes in \r\ngrassland productivity are positively correlated with increases in mean \r\nannual precipitation (Hoover et al., 2014; Brookshire and Weaver, 2015; \r\nGang et al., 2015; Gao et al., 2016; Wilcox et al., 2017; Wan et al., 2018). \r\nIncreasing temperatures positively impact grassland production and \r\nbiomass, especially in temperature-limited regions (Piao et al., 2014; \r\nGao et al., 2016). However, it is expected that grasslands in hot areas \r\nwill decrease production as temperatures increase (limited evidence, \r\nlow agreement) (Gang et al., 2015). Nevertheless, grassland responses "


id: 224e2c88753509e564873ea25f73e20e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2844
content:
"Declines in productivity are most strongly associated with warming \r\n(Sullivan et al., 2020), reduced growth rates during droughts (Bennett \r\net al., 2015; Bonai et al., 2016; Corlett, 2016), drought-related mortality \r\n(Brando et al., 2014; Zhou et al., 2014; Brienen et al., 2015; Corlett, \r\n2016; McDowell et al., 2018), fire (Liu et al., 2017) and cloud-induced "


id: b71b09104aa20b74b22b803124e0d8f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26340
content:
"at a global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase of 0.9degC above \r\nthe pre-industrial period (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 4fda8ed68b066b82fc9ac3ea7b169bd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10004
content:
"radiation limitation (robust evidence, high agreement) (Deb Burman \r\net al., 2020). Increases in the frequency and severity of droughts and \r\nshorter tree residence times due to increases in growth rates caused \r\nby elevated CO2 may be additional interactive factors increasing tree \r\nmortality (Malhi et  al., 2014; Brienen et  al., 2015). Vulnerability to \r\ndrought varies between tree species and sizes, with large, older trees \r\nat the highest risk of mortality (McDowell et al., 2018; Meakem et al., \r\n2018). Mortality risk also varies between forest types, with seasonal \r\nrainforests appearing to be the most vulnerable to drought (Corlett, \r\n2016)."


id: 5bf127d20232540fe3aebfa9317b2b99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11976
content:
"Other changes detected in boreal forests and consistent with, but not \r\nformally attributed to, climate change, include increased wildfire in \r\nSiberia (Section 2.4.4.2.3), long-lasting smouldering below-ground fires \r\nin Canada and the USA (Scholten et al., 2021), tree mortality in Europe \r\n(Section 2.4.4.3.3) and post-fire shifts of boreal conifer to deciduous \r\nbroadleaf tree species in Alaska (Mack et  al., 2021). From 1930 to \r\n1960, boreal forest growth became limited more by precipitation than \r\ntemperature in the Northern Hemisphere (Babst et al., 2019)."


id: e05e0b5542e62a2a9e3807c876babab1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32799
content:
"Lianas (long-stemmed woody vines) generally negatively impact trees, \r\nsignificantly reducing the growth of heavily infested trees (Reis et al., \r\n2020). Lianas would benefit from climate change and disturbance \r\n(LingZi et al., 2014; Hodgkins et al., 2018). The extent of their suitable \r\nniche can increase (Taylor and Kumar, 2016), thereby decreasing forest \r\nbiomass accumulation (robust evidence, high agreement) (van der \r\nHeijden et al., 2013; Fauset et al., 2015; Estrada-Villegas et al., 2020)."


id: a4e99e1ba4eee3436bcbd8fec03f2f2d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23513
content:
"For some vegetation, changes in land use and management have \r\nexerted more influence than climate change. These include upslope \r\nand poleward forest shifts in Europe following the abandonment of \r\ntimber harvesting or livestock grazing (Section  2.4.3.2.2), changes \r\nin wildfire in Europe affected by fire suppression, fire prevention \r\nand agricultural abandonment (Section 2.4.4.2.3), and forest species \r\ncomposition changes in Scotland due to nitrogen deposition from air \r\npollution (Hester et al., 2019). Remote sensing suggests that the area \r\nof temperate and boreal forests increased in Asia and Europe between \r\n1982 and 2016 (Song et al., 2018) and in Canada between 1984 and \r\n2015 (Guindon et al., 2018), but forest plantations and regrowth are \r\nprobable drivers (Song et al., 2018)."


id: 11e0c4e023d1f2520555843a7f37e705
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 310
content:
"The switch from carbon sink to carbon source in peatlands globally is \r\nmainly attributable to changes in the depth of the water table, regardless \r\nof management or status (robust evidence, high agreement) (Lafleur \r\net al., 2005; Dommain et al., 2011; Lund et al., 2012; Cobb et al., 2017; \r\nEvans et al., 2021; Novita et al., 2021). Across the temperate and tropical \r\nbiomes, extensive drainage and deforestation have caused widespread \r\nwater table draw-downs and/or peat subsidence, as well as high CO2"


id: c02f7d7c0a10686924b601737c3d1955
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27793
content:
"Elberling et  al., 2013; Matveev et  al., 2016; Euskirchen et  al., 2020; \r\nHugelius et al., 2020). Conversely, some evidence suggests increased \r\npeat accumulation after thaw (Jones et al., 2013; Estop-Aragones et al., \r\n2018; Valiranta et al., 2021). There is also a need to consider the impact \r\nof wildfire on permafrost thaw, due to its effect on soil temperature \r\nregime (Gibson et  al., 2018), as fire intensity and frequency have \r\nincreased across the boreal and Arctic biomes (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Kasischke et al., 2010; Scholten et al., 2021)."


id: cb0aaeae1d19595cf28f3b74633d76a1
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vector_id: 29506
content:
"(Weyhenmeyer et  al., 2016), watershed type (de Wit et  al., 2016) \r\nand the length of the food chain (Hansson et al., 2013). Quantitative \r\nattribution of browning to climate change remains difficult (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


id: 126d951e855586860ef5b85030f6a4f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 399
content:
"In addition to direct warming, indirect effects of climate change, first \r\nfound in AR4 and AR5, continue, such as thawed permafrost, altered \r\nhydrology and enhanced nutrient cycling, and these processes are \r\ncausing pronounced vegetation changes (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Schuur et  al., 2009; Natali et  al., 2012). Soil moisture \r\nstatus influences temperature sensitivity of plant growth and canopy \r\nheights (Myers-Smith et  al., 2015; Ackerman et  al., 2017; Bjorkman \r\net al., 2018). In tundra ecosystems, permafrost thawing can decouple \r\nbelow-ground plant growth dynamics from above-ground dynamics, \r\nwith below-ground root growth continuing until soils re-freeze in \r\nautumn (Cross-Chapter Paper 6) (Iversen et  al., 2015; Blume-Werry \r\net al., 2016; Radville et al., 2016)."


id: 6e52466e0499a56ecb785764a4e977b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14980
content:
"In summary, new studies since AR5 have explicitly estimated the \r\neffects of warming and browning on freshwaters in boreal areas, with \r\ncomplex positive and negative repercussions on water temperature \r\nprofiles (lower vs. upper water) (high confidence) and primary \r\nproduction (medium confidence)."


id: 1118dcbee53c824fd3d908526d81bc5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 169
content:
"In boreal coniferous areas, there has been an increase in the \r\ntransporting of terrestrial-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into \r\nrivers and lakes, which has caused increased opacity and a shift toward \r\na brown colour (browning). There was little assessment of this in AR5. \r\nThis process is driven by climate change, and stems from hydrological \r\nintensification, greening of the Northern Hemisphere and degradation \r\nof carbon sinks in peatlands (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Solomon et al., 2015; Catalan et al., 2016; de Wit et al., 2016; Finstad \r\net  al., 2016; Creed et  al., 2018; Hayden et  al., 2019). These factors \r\nenhance terrestrial productivity, alter vegetation communities and \r\naffect the hydrological control of the production and transport of DOC \r\n(Weyhenmeyer et al., 2016). Non-climate-related drivers of browning \r\nare: declining atmospheric sulphur deposition, forestry practices and \r\nLULCCs (see Table SM2.1 for detail)."


id: f1b0d90b49f5e263b2cb3984e88b009e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 35534
content:
"Browning creates a positive feedback to climate by absorbing photo\u0002synthetically active radiation, which accelerates upper water (epil\u0002imnetic) warming (Solomon et al., 2015). Browning of lakes leads to \r\nshallower and more stable thermoclines, and thus overall deep water \r\ncooling (Solomon et al., 2015; Williamson et al., 2015), and can pro\u0002voke a transition of the seasonal mixing regime from a mixed lake \r\n(polymictic) to one that is seasonally stratified (Kirillin and Shatwell, \r\n2016)."


id: 36b8857c6f1b5569fb44872a3dcffec6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5994
content:
"The ecological responses of browning are a concomitant effect of climate \r\nchange and nutrient status. Results from long-term, large-scale lake \r\nexperiments have been variable, showing both strong synergistic effects \r\n(Urrutia-Cordero et  al., 2016) and no significant effects of browning \r\non plankton community food webs (Rasconi et  al., 2015). Browning \r\nhas driven a shift from auto- to heterotrophic/mixotrophic-based \r\nproduction (Urrutia-Cordero et  al., 2017) and supports heterotrophic \r\nmetabolism of the bacterial community (Zwart et al., 2016). Browning \r\nmay also accelerate primary production through the input of nutrients \r\nassociated with dissolved organic matter (DOM) in nutrient-poor lakes \r\nand increase cyanobacteria, which cope better with low light intensities \r\n(Huisman et al., 2018) and toxin levels (Urrutia-Cordero et al., 2016). \r\nHowever, the synergistic impacts of browning and climate change \r\non aquatic communities depends on regional precipitation patterns "


id: 622d6a23d3dce1ed5199bb3ec9fc272d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13001
content:
"in the 1950-2017 record, seven to eleven times the area that would \r\nhave burned without climate change (Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2019). \r\nIn Alaska, USA, the high maximum temperatures and extremely low \r\nrelative humidity due to anthropogenic climate change accounted for \r\n33-60% of the probability of wildfire in 2015, when the area burned \r\nwas the second highest in the 1940-2015 record (Partain et al., 2016). \r\nIn protected areas of Canada and the USA, climate factors (temperature, \r\nprecipitation, relative humidity and evapotranspiration) accounted for \r\n60% of burned area from local human and natural ignitions from 1984 \r\nto 2014, outweighing local human factors (population density, roads \r\nand built area) (Mansuy et al., 2019)."


id: d92ef41e418867819da0310d018aa566
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31677
content:
"2019). Furthermore, much of the decreasing trend derives from two \r\nyears: 1998 with a high burned area and 2013 with low burned area \r\n(Forkel et al., 2019). Wildfire does not show a clear long-term trend for \r\nthe world as a whole because of increases and decreases in different \r\nregions (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 555e0182270ca0b071294124e2f4532c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10900
content:
"In summary, field evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change \r\nhas increased the area burned by wildfire above natural levels across \r\nwestern North America in the period 1984-2017, at GMST increases \r\nof 0.6degC-0.9degC, increasing burned area up to 11 times in one extreme \r\nyear and doubling it (over natural levels) in a 32-year period (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: a89d7ff414c7cb0aeb6f851e604b69a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24058
content:
"While burned area has increased in parts of Asia, Australia, Europe and \r\nSouth America, published research has not yet attributed the increases \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: b95778a58cd715606509332ddc8516bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26703
content:
"In the Amazon, deforestation for agricultural expansion and the \r\ndegradation of forests adjacent to deforested areas cause wildfire \r\nin moist humid tropical forests not adapted to fire (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Fonseca et  al., 2017; van Marle et  al., 2017; da "


id: 3677ff7efe4ccd811a3e98e5a0a13b25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
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vector_id: 5963
content:
"In Africa, the rate of change of burned area on the continent as a \r\nwhole ranged from a non-statistically significant -0.45% yr-1 in the \r\nperiod 2002-2016 (Zubkova et al., 2019) to a significant -1.9% yr-1\r\nin the period 2001-2016 (Wei et al., 2020). These decreases coincided \r\nwith areas of agricultural expansion or areas where drought reduced \r\nfuel loads (Zubkova et  al., 2019; Wei et  al., 2020). It is possible, \r\nhowever, that the 500-m spatial resolution of Modis remote-sensing \r\nfire data underestimates the area burned in Africa by half, by missing \r\nsmall fires (Ramo et al., 2021). In the Serengeti-Mara savanna of east \r\nAfrica, burned area showed no significant change from 2001 to 2014, \r\nalthough an increase in domestic livestock would tend to reduce the \r\ngrass cover that fuels savanna fires (Probert et al., 2019)."


id: 9e90306c8146bdcf91579a0d1e3741e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22484
content:
"In Mediterranean Europe, the area burned in the region as a whole \r\ndecreased from 1985 to 2011 (Turco et al., 2016), although the burned \r\narea for Spain did not show a significant long-term increase from 1968 \r\nto 2010 (Moreno et al., 2014) whereas that for Portugal in 2017 was \r\nthe highest in the period 1980-2017 (Turco et  al., 2019). Increased \r\nsummer maximum temperature and decreased soil moisture explained \r\nmost of the burned area observed, suggesting a contribution of climate \r\nchange, but fire suppression, fire prevention, agricultural abandonment \r\nand reforestation as well as the reduction in forest area exerted \r\neven stronger influences on burned area than the climate across \r\nMediterranean Europe (robust evidence, high agreement) (Moreno \r\net al., 2014; Turco et al., 2017; Viedma et al., 2018; Turco et al., 2019)."


id: 5b0c18eb5a59719622eb011457f0f9ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11836
content:
"In Indonesia, deforestation and draining of peat swamp forests dries \r\nout the peat, providing substantial fuel for fires (Page and Hooijer, \r\n2016). Extreme fire years in Indonesia, including 1997, 2006 and 2015, \r\ncoincided with extreme heat and aridity during the warm phase of the \r\nENSO (Field et al., 2016). Fire-resistant forest in 2019 covered only 3% \r\nof peatlands and 4.5% of non-peatlands on Sumatra and Kalimantan \r\n(Nikonovas et al., 2020)."


id: 92564223b0753143d6ba9efc5408ad85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20546
content:
"In Chile, the area burned in the summer of 2016-2017 was 14 times \r\nthe mean for the period 1985-2016 and the highest on record \r\n(Bowman et al., 2019). While this extreme fire year coincided with the \r\nhighest daily mean maximum temperature in the period 1979-2017 \r\n(Bowman et al., 2019) in central Chile (the area of highest fire activity), "


id: 43d988fe78f4dcb9f28a14b2ace7d7a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8085
content:
"Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests across critical thresholds of \r\nheat and aridity that reduced the post-fire tree regeneration by half \r\n(Davis et al., 2019b). In the southwestern USA, where anthropogenic \r\nclimate change has caused drought (Williams et al., 2019) and increased \r\nwildfire (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016), high-severity fires have \r\nconverted some forest patches to shrublands (Barton and Poulos, 2018). \r\nField evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change and wildfire, \r\ntogether, altered vegetation species composition in the southwestern \r\nUSA and Cape floristic region, South Africa, reducing post-fire natural \r\nregeneration and species richness of tree and other plant species, \r\nbetween 1966 and 2015, at GMST increases of 0.3degC-0.9degC (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: c6d34a2d7a8f29ae2f34bc7fca615859
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28859
content:
"burned area from 1976 to 2013 showed the highest correlation with \r\nthe precipitation cycles of the ENSO and the temperature cycles of the \r\nAntarctic Oscillation (Urrutia-Jalabert et al., 2018)."


id: 34f291f1d63fce5db9b93a3782efea1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5739
content:
"Overall, burned area has increased in the Amazon, Arctic, Australia and \r\nparts of Africa and Asia, consistent with, but not formally attributed \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nDeforestation, peat draining, agricultural expansion or abandonment, \r\nfire suppression and inter-decadal cycles such as the ENSO exert a \r\nstronger influence than climate change on wildfire trends in numerous \r\nregions outside of North America (high confidence)."


id: 5a98adc7b81e891b166e4380f8f56899
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11775
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change can cause tree mortality directly via \r\nincreased aridity or drought (Section 2.4.4.3.3) or indirectly through \r\nwildfire (Section  2.4.4.2.1) and insect pests (Section  2.4.4.3.3). \r\nCatastrophic failure of the plant hydraulic system, in which a lack \r\nof water causes the xylem to lose hydraulic conductance, is the \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree death (Anderegg et al., \r\n2016; Adams et al., 2017; Anderegg et al., 2018; Choat et al., 2018; \r\nMenezes-Silva et al., 2019; Brodribb et al., 2020)."


id: c9bd386a67188e5c519f8b4f91212cb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29297
content:
"In the Amazon, Australia, North America, Siberia and other regions, wildfires are burning wider areas than in the past. Analyses show that \r\nhuman-caused climate change has driven the increases in burned area in the forests of western North America. Elsewhere, deforestation, fire \r\nsuppression, agricultural burning and short-term cycles like El Nino can exert a stronger influence than climate change. Many forests and \r\ngrasslands naturally require fire for ecosystem health but excessive wildfire can kill people, destroy homes and damage ecosystems."


id: 761dcf5020c104aa0f883d067c977345
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16188
content:
"Figure FAQ2.3.1 | (a) Springs Fire, May 2, 2013, Thousand Oaks, California, USA (photo by Michael Robinson Chavez, Los Angeles Times). (b) Cumulative area \r\nburned by wildfire in the western USA, with (orange) and without (yellow) the increased heat and aridity of climate change."


id: 1cb3dd693c9306f394895702ca606c9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1967
content:
"Wildfire is a natural and essential part of many forest, woodland and grassland ecosystems, killing pests, releasing \r\nplant seeds to sprout, thinning out small trees and serving other functions essential for ecosystem health. Excessive \r\nwildfire, however, can kill people with the smoke causing breathing illnesses, destroy homes (Figure FAQ2.3.1a) and \r\ndamage ecosystems."


id: f9e9d115b99a1c092f3bfb69141658d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36828
content:
"Human-caused climate change increases wildfire by intensifying its principal driving factor, heat. The heat of \r\nclimate change dries out vegetation and accelerates burning. Non-climate factors also cause wildfires. Agricultural \r\ncompanies, small-scale farmers and livestock herders in many tropical areas cut down forests and intentionally \r\nset fires to clear fields and pastures. Cities, towns and roads increase the number of fires that people ignite. \r\nGovernments in many countries suppress fires, even natural ones, producing unnatural accumulations of fuel in the \r\nform of coarse woody debris and dense stands of small trees. The fuel accumulations cause particularly severe fires \r\nthat burn upwards into tree crowns."


id: 81d5bf28907726747d3265e5e91b0385
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17953
content:
"In other regions, wildfires are also burning wider areas and occurring more often. This is consistent with climate \r\nchange, but analyses have not yet shown if climate change is more important than other factors. In the Amazon, \r\ndeforestation by companies, farmers and herders who cut down and intentionally burn rainforests to expand \r\nagricultural fields and pastures causes wildfires even in relatively moister years. Drought exacerbates these fires. In \r\nAustralia, much of the southeastern part of the continent has experienced extreme wildfire years, but analyses \r\nsuggest that El Nino, a heat phenomenon that cycles up and down periodically, is more important than long-term "


id: cfa3ed153b76823100eba73695572a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30199
content:
"climate change. In Indonesia, intentional burning of rainforests for oil palm plantations and El Nino seem to be \r\nmore important than long-term climate change. In Mediterranean Europe, fire suppression seems to have prevented \r\nany increasing trend in burned area but the suppression and abandonment of agricultural lands have allowed fuel \r\nto build up in some areas and contribute to major fires in years of extreme heat. In Canada and Siberia, wildfires \r\nare now burning more often in permafrost areas where fire was rare, but analyses are lacking regarding the relative \r\ninfluence of climate change. For the world as a whole, satellite data indicate that the vast amount of land converted \r\nfrom forest to farmland in the period 1998-2015 actually decreased the total burned area. Nevertheless, the \r\nevidence from the forests of western North America shows that human-caused climate change has, at least on one \r\ncontinent, clearly driven increases in wildfire."


id: 6b90f350047390a46bafe7da008340c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14545
content:
"coinciding with a ~1degC spring temperature increase, but non-climate \r\nfactors were not examined (Navarro-Cerrillo et  al., 2019). Across \r\nsouthern Africa, nine of the 13 oldest known (1100-2500 years old) \r\nbaobab trees (Adansonia digitata) have died since 2005, although \r\nthe causes are unknown (Patrut et al., 2018). In South Africa, savanna \r\ntrees experienced an order of magnitude increase in mortality, related, \r\nbut not formally attributed to, decreased rainfall (Case et al., 2019). \r\nIn Tunisia, insect infestations related, but not formally attributed to, \r\nhotter temperatures led to mortality of cork oaks (Quercus suber) \r\n(Bellahirech et al., 2019)."


id: c8363516b3256bd2ed4cee4c800b9b7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29076
content:
"In summary, anthropogenic climate change caused drought-induced \r\ntree mortality of up to 20% in the period 1945-2007 in western North \r\nAmerica, the African Sahel and North Africa, via global temperature \r\nincreases of 0.3degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period and increases in \r\naridity, and it contributed to over 100 other cases of drought-induced tree \r\nmortality in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North and South America \r\n(high confidence). Field observations document accelerating mortality \r\nrates, rising background mortality and post-mortality vegetation shifts \r\n(high confidence). Water stress, leading to plant hydraulic failure, is the \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality. Timber cutting, \r\nagricultural expansion, air pollution and other non-climate factors also \r\ncontribute to tree death."


id: 95496d76f663489891f277b45e0be2a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20983
content:
"In western North America, increased infestations of bark beetles and \r\nother tree-feeding insects that benefit from higher winter temperatures \r\n(section 3.3.1.1 in (IPCC, 2021a)) and longer growing seasons \r\n(section 2.3.4.3.1 in (IPCC, 2021a)) have killed drought-stressed trees \r\n(Section 2.4.2.1) (Anderegg et al., 2015; Kolb et al., 2016; Lloret and \r\nKitzberger, 2018; Redmond et al., 2018; Stephens et al., 2018; Fettig \r\net al., 2019; Restaino et al., 2019; Stephenson et al., 2019). Increasing \r\ntemperatures have allowed bark beetles to move further north and \r\nto higher elevations, survive through the winter at sites where they "


id: d949d272e75b324831b8d1dd5f6ba1d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31699
content:
"In the African Sahel, field research has continued to detect tree \r\nmortality, ranging from 20 to 90% in the period 1965-2018 \r\n(Kusserow, 2017; Trichon et al., 2018; Dendoncker et al., 2020), and \r\ndeclines in tree biodiversity, with up to 80% local losses of tree \r\nspecies in the period 1970-2014 (Hanke et  al., 2016; Kusserow, \r\n2017; Ibrahim et al., 2018; Dendoncker et al., 2020), consistent with, \r\nbut not formally attributed to, climate change. In Algeria, mortality \r\nof the Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) increased from 1980 to 2006, "


id: 43337b5492a307f365b7ac4e32a458da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7972
content:
"Terrestrial ecosystems contain carbon stocks: 450 GtC (range 380-540 \r\nGtC) in vegetation, 1700 +- 250 GtC in soils that are not permanently \r\nfrozen and 1400 +- 200 GtC in permafrost (Hugelius et al., 2014; Batjes, \r\n2016; Jackson et al., 2017; Strauss et al., 2017; Erb et al., 2018a; Xu \r\net  al., 2021a). Ecosystem carbon stocks, totalling 3000-4000 GtC \r\n(from the lowest and highest estimates above), substantially exceed \r\nthe ~900 GtC carbon in unextracted fossil fuels (see(Canadell et al., \r\n2021))."


id: 35b16dd836f4201f033f9d6cdaff4c38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5854
content:
"Deforestation, draining of peatlands and the expansion of agricultural \r\nfields, livestock pastures and human settlements and other LULCCs \r\nemitted carbon at a rate of 1.6 +- 0.7 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019, \r\n(Friedlingstein et  al., 2020), of which wildfires and peat burning \r\nemitted 0.4 +- 0.2 Gt yr-1 from 1997 to 2016 (van der Werf et al., 2017). \r\nAnthropogenic climate change has caused some of these emissions \r\nthrough increases in wildfire (Section  2.4.4.2.1) and tree mortality \r\n(Section 2.4.4.3.1), but the fraction of the total remains unquantified. \r\nLUC produced ~15% of global anthropogenic emissions, from fossil \r\nfuels and land (Friedlingstein et  al., 2020). Terrestrial ecosystems \r\nremoved carbon from the atmosphere through plant growth at a rate \r\nof -3.4 +- 0.9 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: ee1f51894f5fd691265be4ea40bfe8cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34938
content:
"Tropical deforestation and the draining and burning of peatlands \r\nproduce almost all of the carbon emissions from LUC (Houghton and \r\nNassikas, 2017; Friedlingstein et al., 2020), while forest growth accounts \r\nfor two-thirds of ecosystem carbon removals from the atmosphere \r\n(Pugh et al., 2019b). Global terrestrial ecosystems comprised a net sink \r\nof -1.9 +- 1.1 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020), \r\nmainly due to growth in forests (Harris et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2021a), \r\nmitigating ~31% of global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels \r\nand LUC (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 19617097ed05cf2450142f48880c95c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1476
content:
"In summary, terrestrial ecosystems contain 3000-4000 GtC in \r\nvegetation, permafrost and soils, three to five times the amount of \r\ncarbon in unextracted fossil fuels and 4.4 times the carbon currently \r\nin the atmosphere (robust evidence, high agreement). Tropical \r\ndeforestation, the draining and burning of peatlands and other LULCCs \r\nemit 0.9-2.3 GtC yr-1, ~15% of the global emissions from fossil \r\nfuels and ecosystems (robust evidence, high agreement). Terrestrial \r\necosystems currently remove more carbon from the atmosphere \r\n(-3.4+-0.9 Gt yr-1) than they emit (+1.6+-0.7 Gt yr-1), a net sink of \r\n-1.9+-1.1 Gt yr-1 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020) . Thus, tropical rainforests, \r\nArctic permafrost and other ecosystems provide the global ecosystem \r\nservice of naturally preventing carbon from contributing to climate \r\nchange (high confidence)."


id: 2ce53c553801e3ce3ea9513c77e6a252
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content:
"The ecosystem that attains the highest above-ground carbon density \r\nin the world is the coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest in \r\nCalifornia, USA, with 2600 +- 100 tonnes ha-1 carbon (Van Pelt et al., \r\n2016). The ecosystem with the second highest documented carbon \r\ndensity in the world is the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest "


id: 833f59a2b2292722a5c955692714bff5
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content:
"richness of plants, birds and beetles increased with carbon density up \r\nto ~100 tonnes ha-1 (Ferreira et al., 2018)."


id: 86a2b9fdb03e53ceb059119bdbf635a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"in Victoria, Australia, with ~1900 tonnes ha-1 (Keith et al., 2009). In \r\nthe Tropics, tropical evergreen broadleaf forests (rainforests) in the \r\nAmazon, the Congo and Indonesia attain the highest carbon densities, \r\nreaching a maximum of 230 tonnes ha-1 in the Amazon (Mitchard \r\net al., 2014) and the Congo (Xu et al., 2017). Temperature increases \r\nreduce the tropical rainforest above-ground carbon density 9.1 tonnes \r\nha-1 per degree Celsius, through reduced growth and increased tree \r\nmortality (Sullivan et al., 2020)."


id: b52567f5521845806f6c7fb384ff8106
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"National parks and other protected areas which, in June 2021, covered \r\n15.7% of global terrestrial area (UNEP-WCMC et  al., 2021) contain \r\n~90 GtC in vegetation and ~150 GtC in soil (one-fifth and one-tenth, \r\nrespectively, of global stocks) and remove carbon from the atmosphere \r\nat a rate of ~0.5 Gt yr-1 (one-sixth of global removals) (Melillo et al., \r\n2016). The most strictly protected areas contain carbon at higher \r\ndensities, but illegal deforestation and fires in some protected areas \r\nemit 38 +- 17 Mt yr-1 globally (Collins and Mitchard, 2017). In the \r\nAmazon, protected areas store more than half of the above-ground \r\nvegetation carbon stocks of the region, but account for only one-tenth \r\nof net emissions (Walker et al., 2020). Conservation of high biodiversity \r\nareas, particularly in protected areas, protects ecosystem carbon, \r\nprevents emissions to the atmosphere and reduces the magnitude of \r\nclimate change (high confidence)."


id: 89ddd929455d075e77ee7d5e04e456bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Tropical forests contain the largest vegetation carbon stocks in the \r\nworld, with 180-250 GtC above and below ground (Saatchi et  al., \r\n2011; Baccini et al., 2012; Avitabile et al., 2016). The Amazon contains \r\na stock of 45-60 GtC (Baccini et  al., 2012; Mitchard et  al., 2014; \r\nEnglund et al., 2017)."


id: 34c3323e101279da34c283a5dff44d63
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content:
"Tropical forests and Arctic permafrost contain the highest ecosystem \r\ncarbon stocks in above-ground vegetation and soil, respectively, in \r\nthe world (robust evidence, high agreement). These ecosystems form \r\nnatural sinks that prevent the emission to the atmosphere of 1400-\r\n1800 GtC that would otherwise increase the magnitude of climate \r\nchange (high confidence)."


id: 3dfafa5c22c5e466ff6b92879c63dde8
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content:
"The Amazon as a whole was a net carbon emitter in the period 2003-\r\n2008 (Exbrayat and Williams, 2015; Yang et al., 2018b), primarily due \r\nto the expansion of agricultural and livestock areas, which caused "


id: c0731a2622fe63d01bb40310dc39b0cd
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content:
"to land use since the early 2000s, making terrestrial ecosystems a net \r\ncarbon sink (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 67ada3f1f4dbb95dcf0ddd5295374ecd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Global terrestrial NPP increased by 6% from 1982 to 1999 through \r\nincreased temperature and increased solar radiation in the Amazon \r\nfrom decreased cloud cover (Nemani et al., 2003), and then decreased \r\n1% from 2000 to 2009, because of extensive droughts in the Southern \r\nHemisphere (Zhao and Running, 2010). From 1999 to 2015, increased \r\naridity caused extensive declines in the NDVI globally, particularly \r\nsemiarid ecosystems (Huang et  al., 2016), indicating widespread \r\ndecreases in NPP (Yuan et al., 2019)."


id: f78bbe2e6d4c438992576e3396b6f08a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"In Indonesia and Malaysia, draining and burning of peat swamp \r\nforests for oil palm plantations emitted 60-260 MtC yr-1 from 1990 \r\nto 2015, converting peatlands in that period from a carbon sink to a \r\ncarbon source (Miettinen et al., 2017; Wijedasa et al., 2018; Cooper \r\net  al., 2020). Deforestation of mangrove forests caused 10-30% of \r\ndeforestation emissions in Indonesia from 1980 to 2005 (Donato et al., \r\n2011; Murdiyarso et  al., 2015), even though mangroves comprised \r\nonly 3% of Indonesia primary forest area in 2000 (Margono et  al., \r\n2014; Murdiyarso et al., 2015)."


id: eccb5bc71140cba0c58bc069fdae08f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"In North America, wildfire emitted 0.1 +- 0.02 GtC yr-1 from in the \r\nperiod 1990-2012, but regrowth was slightly greater, producing a net \r\nsink (Chen et al., 2017). In California, USA, two-thirds of the 70 MtC \r\nemitted from natural ecosystems in 2001-2010 came from the 6% of \r\nthe area that burned (Gonzalez et al., 2015). Anthropogenic climate \r\nchange caused up to half of the burned area (Section 2.4.4.2.1)."


id: b47f7205bef3438da6b205fa82d815a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"In the Arctic, anthropogenic climate change has thawed permafrost \r\n(Guo et al., 2020), leading to emissions of 1.7 +- 0.8 GtC yr-1 in winter \r\nin the period 2003-2017 (Natali et al., 2019). Wildfires in the Arctic \r\ntundra in Alaska from ~1930 to 2010 caused up to a depth of 0.5 m \r\nof permafrost thaw (Brown et  al., 2015), exposing peatland carbon \r\n(Brown et al., 2015; Gibson et al., 2018) including soil carbon deposits \r\nup to 1600 years old (Walker et al., 2019)."


id: fa181bed7f6120bb9a34244b0c597414
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 36865
content:
"Tropical deforestation, the draining and burning of peatlands and the \r\nthawing of Arctic permafrost due to climate change have caused these \r\necosystems to emit more carbon to the atmosphere than they naturally \r\nremove through vegetation growth (high confidence)."


id: 978f3cf4b3358ae887c106de315333d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 21375
content:
"The difference between photosynthesis by plants (gross primary \r\nproductivity, GPP) and plant energy use through respiration is the \r\nnet growth of plants (NPP), which removes CO2 from the atmosphere \r\nand mitigates emissions from deforestation and other LUCs \r\n(Section 2.4.4.4). Global terrestrial NPP has exceeded emissions due "


id: df8c2a3a46efe09513274b30486cec27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 32671
content:
"Temperature affects primary productivity by moderating phytoplankton \r\ngrowth rates, ice cover, thermal stratification and the length of growing \r\nseasons (Ruhland et al., 2015; Richardson et al., 2018). Global warming "


id: ae6acf168b3f1c5a37b1f611cab67e98
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content:
"in relative abundance of heat-loving or heat-tolerant species' (high \r\nconfidence) (Section 2.4.2.3) (Cline et al., 2013; Feeley et al., 2020)."


id: 1b84a4df2b5c135b35118e08cdd8c927
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"has reinforced eutrophication, especially cyanobacteria blooms \r\n(Wagner and Adrian, 2009; Kosten et al., 2012; O'Neil et al., 2012; De \r\nSenerpont Domis et al., 2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Visser et al., 2016; \r\nHuisman et al., 2018) (very high confidence). Conversely, warming can \r\nreduce cyanobacteria in hypertrophic lakes (Richardson et al., 2019). \r\nFreshwater cyanobacteria may benefit directly from elevated CO2\r\nconcentrations (Visser et al., 2016; Ji et al., 2017; Huisman et al., 2018; \r\nRichardson et al., 2019)."


id: 903abd073723491ae8ddb045d2dc8bc3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 20225
content:
"Macrophyte growth in freshwaters is likely to increase with rising \r\nwater temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and precipitation (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Dhir, 2015; Hossain et  al., 2016; Short \r\net al., 2016; Reitsema et al., 2018). Nonetheless, primary productivity \r\nin rivers is variable and unpredictable (Bernhardt et al., 2018) because \r\nseasonal variations in temperature and light are uncorrelated, frequent \r\nhigh-flow events reduce biomass of autotrophs and droughts can \r\nstrand and desiccate autotrophs."


id: 4993bd619ebdf6d67b57fd0a983be47a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 8964
content:
"In large, nutrient-poor lakes, warming-induced prolonged thermal \r\nstratification can reduce primary production (medium confidence) \r\n(Kraemer et  al., 2017). Warming may reduce phytoplankton \r\nconcentrations when temperature-induced increases in consumption \r\nof phytoplankton outpace increases in phytoplankton production (De \r\nSenerpont Domis et al., 2013). These decreases in productivity may be \r\nunder-recognised responses to climate change."


id: 9f284579ef0a8220503b1f612d346c7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 22577
content:
"Summary: There is robust evidence of an increase in primary production \r\nalong with warming trends. However, increases or declines of algae \r\ncannot entirely be attributed to climate change; they are lake-specific \r\nand modulated through weather conditions, lake morphology, salinity, \r\nland use and restoration and biotic interactions (medium confidence) \r\n(O'Beirne et al., 2017; Velthuis et al., 2017; Rusak et al., 2018; Ho et al., \r\n2019)."


id: a35241c52fb27869366bf51706ab17d2
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content:
"The consistency of patterns of biological change with expectations from \r\nregional or global warming processes, coupled with an understanding \r\nof underlying processes and the coherence of these patterns at \r\nboth regional and global scales, all form multiple lines of evidence \r\n(Parmesan et al., 2013) that it is very likely that the observed range \r\nshifts and phenological changes in individual species can be attributed \r\nto regional and global climate changes (very high confidence) \r\n(Section  2.4.2, Table  2.2; Table  2.3; Table  SM2.1) (Parmesan et  al., \r\n2013)."


id: 9aaf465c1dd6ffd824c3b09689ddf1f4
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content:
"Field research since the AR5 has detected biome shifts at numerous \r\nsites, poleward and upslope, that are consistent with increased \r\ntemperatures and altered precipitation patterns driven by climate \r\nchange, and support prior studies that attributed such shifts to \r\nanthropogenic climate change (high confidence). New studies help \r\nfill previous geographic and habitat gaps, for example, documenting \r\nupward shifts in the forest/alpine tundra ecotone in the Andes, Tibet \r\nand Nepal, and northward shifts in the deciduous/boreal forest \r\necotones in Canada. Globally, woody encroachment into open areas \r\n(grasslands, arid regions and tundra) is likely being driven by climate \r\nchange and increased CO2, in concert with changes in grazing and fire \r\nregimes (medium confidence) (Section 2.4.3)."


id: 85a83129d875944d03836677bdef406f
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"Global and regional meta-analyses of diverse systems, habitats and \r\ntaxonomic groupings document that approximately half of all species \r\nwith long-term records have shifted their ranges poleward and/or \r\nupward in elevation and ~2/3 have advanced their timing of spring \r\nevents (phenology) (very high confidence) (Section  2.4.2, Table  2.2) \r\n(Parmesan and Hanley, 2015; Parmesan, 2019). Changes in abundance \r\ntend to match predictions from climate warming, with warm-adapted \r\nspecies significantly outperforming cold-adapted species in warming \r\nhabitats (Feeley et al., 2020) and the composition of local communities \r\nbecoming more 'thermophilised', that is, experiencing an 'increase "


id: f5e82cc8cf11cf9ee819ebe1cfa082fa
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vector_id: 36202
content:
"Climate change has driven, or is contributing to, increased tree mortality \r\ndirectly through increased aridity and droughts and indirectly through \r\nincreased wildfires and insect pests in many locations (high confidence).\r\nAnalyses of causal factors have attributed increasing tree mortality at \r\nsites in Africa and North America to anthropogenic climate change, and \r\nfield evidence has detected tree mortality due to drought, wildfires \r\nand insect pests in temperate and tropical forests around the world \r\n(high confidence). Water stress, leading to plant hydraulic failure, is a \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality, along with the \r\nindirect effects of climate change mediated by community interactions \r\n(high confidence) (Section 2.4.4.3)."


id: bc4fafb052bfc2fa0d42ed343a5638d0
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content:
"resource requirements or capacities for distributional and genetic \r\nchanges (Foden et al., 2013; Cizauskas et al., 2017; Foden et al., 2019). \r\nTraits that render entire ecosystems vulnerable are harder to define, \r\nbut it is clear that vulnerabilities are high in the coldest habitats, in \r\nthose with limited geographic ranges such as low-lying islands and in \r\nspecialised, restricted habitats such as serpentine outcrops in California \r\n(Anacker and Harrison, 2012) and dry meadows in Fennoscandia and \r\nTibet (Yang et al., 2018a). Ecosystem vulnerability can depend critically \r\non the fates of plants that function as 'foundation species', providing \r\ncommunity biomass above and below the ground, structuring habitat \r\nfor fauna and providing ecosystem services such as erosion control \r\n(Camac et al., 2021)."


id: 26d8ba3cd33f7a573219d15afc329dc9
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"Terrestrial ecosystems sequester and store globally critical stocks of \r\ncarbon, but these stocks are at risk from deforestation and climate \r\nchange (high confidence). Tropical deforestation and the draining and \r\nburning of peatlands produce almost all of the carbon emissions from \r\nLULCC. In the Arctic, increased temperatures have thawed permafrost \r\nat numerous sites, dried some areas and increased fires, causing net \r\nemissions of carbon from soils (high confidence) (Sections  2.4.4.4, \r\n2.5.3.4)."


id: f82bd7817a150f5431c7af9875603998
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"Methods for projecting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity \r\ncan be classified into three types: (1) statistical models such as SDMs \r\n(Elith and Leathwick, 2009); (2) mechanistic or process-based models \r\n(Chuine and Regniere, 2017) and (3) trait-based models (Pacifici et al., \r\n2015). It is only recently that models have been developed looking \r\nat lower levels of warming like 1.5degC (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; \r\nWarren et al., 2018)."


id: 3c1b35f2c8dd9e092856c11776ddc6a9
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content:
"Globally, increases in temperature, aridity and drought have increased \r\nthe length of fire seasons and doubled the potentially burnable land \r\narea (medium confidence). Increases in the area burned have been \r\nattributed to anthropogenic climate change in North America (high \r\nconfidence). In parts of Africa, Asia, Australia and South America, \r\nthe area burned has also increased, consistent with anthropogenic \r\nclimate change. Deforestation, peat-burning, agricultural expansion \r\nor abandonment, fire suppression and inter-decadal cycles strongly \r\ninfluence fire occurrence. The areas with the greatest increases in the \r\nlength of the fire season include the Amazon, western North America, \r\nwestern Asia and East Africa (Section 2.4.4.2)."


id: 2e00940b50f741176e69e143f1099f26
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"SDMs or niche-based models assess potential geographic areas of \r\nsuitable climate for the species in current conditions and then project \r\nthem into future conditions (Trisurat, 2018; Vieira et al., 2018). There are \r\nlimitations in all models and it is critical that modellers understand the \r\nassumptions, proper parameterization and limitations of each model \r\ntechnique, including differences between climate models, emission \r\nscenarios or RCPs and baselines (Araujo et al., 2019). Several systems \r\nautomate the development of SDMs, including R-packages (Beaumont \r\net al., 2016; Hallgren et al., 2016), and other model types (Foden et al., \r\n2019) and aid in the use of climate model data (Suggitt et al., 2017), \r\nincluding allowing for connectivity constraints (Peterson et al., 2013). \r\nBuisson et al. (2010) found most variation in model outputs stems from \r\ndifferences in design, followed by general circulation models (GCMs)."


id: 3e71d5d87e2dc1f71dd48f229fb27a9d
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content:
"The changes in biodiversity and ecosystem health that we have \r\nobserved, and project will continue, pose a risk of declines in human \r\nhealth and well-being (e.g., tourism, recreation, food, livelihoods and \r\nquality of life) (medium confidence). Clear attribution of these impacts \r\nis often not possible, but inferences can be made by comparison of \r\nthe observed changes in biodiversity/ecosystem health and the known \r\nservices from these particular ecosystems."


id: d96f056cf25757eb88045efb5ba9c584
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vector_id: 31718
content:
"Mechanistic approaches, also known as process-based models, project \r\nthe responses of species to climate changes by explicitly incorporating \r\nknown biological processes, thresholds and interactions (Morin and \r\nThuiller, 2009; Maino et  al., 2016). Mechanistic models are able to \r\naccommodate a broad range of mechanisms of climate change impacts \r\nand include species-specific characteristics such as dispersal distances, \r\nlongevity, fecundity, genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity. \r\nHowever, sufficient knowledge is available for only a few well-studied \r\nspecies. Species' traits have been used to more broadly estimate \r\npotential climate change impacts (Foden et al., 2013; Cizauskas et al., \r\n2017)."


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vector_id: 32190
content:
"Under the risk assessment framework that was introduced in AR5 (IPCC, \r\n2014b), risk means the probability of harmful consequences resulting \r\nfrom climate change. It results from the interaction of vulnerability, \r\nexposure and hazard and can be represented as the probability of \r\noccurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if \r\nthese events or trends occur (see Chapter 1, this report). The framework \r\ndefines vulnerability as a pre-existing condition, incorporating the \r\nextent to which species or ecosystems are susceptible to, or unable \r\nto cope with, the adverse effects of climate change. Vulnerable \r\nspecies have limited adaptive capacity, stemming from physiological \r\nand behavioural constraints, limited dispersal abilities and restricted "


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vector_id: 34944
content:
"Most models are on a large scale (20-50 km), and so cannot capture \r\nmicro-climatic refugia generated by diversities of slope aspect, elevation \r\nor shade (Suggitt et al., 2015; Suggitt et al., 2018). In analysing records of \r\n430 climate-threatened and range-declining species in England, (Suggett "


id: cce918816c07ccd0b0b2d47c80255023
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Table 2.3 |  Assessing uncertainty in detection and attribution of observed changes in terrestrial and freshwater species and ecosystems to climate change. The lines of evidence \r\nused to support given uncertainty statements, including confidence statements, of the attribution of key conclusions on observed biological changes to climate change and increased \r\natmospheric CO2. Icons represent lines of evidence. This is a summary table that is fully detailed in Table SM2.1."


id: 46c6dd5221be908a28e8aed3421f9b07
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vector_id: 8522
content:
"About half of all species where LULCC has been \r\nminimal have shifted their ranges, with 80-90% of \r\nmovements being in the direction expected from \r\nregional warming trends, i.e., poleward and \r\nupward. "


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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 35289
content:
"Downslope elevational shifts and east/west shifts \r\n(shown for trees and birds) have been associated \r\nwith regional increases in precipitation where \r\nprecipitation has been shown to be the principal \r\ndriver of a range boundary."


id: 1924a35808a61b5d299ffefdee6789a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1448
content:
"About two-thirds of all species with long-term\r\n(>20 yrs) records have shifted the timing of spring \r\nevents in directions expected from regional winter \r\nand spring warming. "


id: 5c40776015de5f8fa41e423af3fae129
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 12030
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change caused latitudinal \r\nand elevational vegetation biome shifts in at least \r\n19 locations in boreal, temperate and tropical \r\necosystems between 1700 and 2007 (via local \r\ntemperature increases of 0.4oC-1.6oC above the \r\npre-industrial period). Climate change is more \r\nimportant than non-climate-change factors."


id: abf67a75cd104222a044d12680e203e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 24574
content:
"not been independently validated and do not allow direct comparison \r\nof vulnerability and risk across taxonomic groups."


id: 61fd060afa87bd79a5f089639ef91586
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12977
content:
"et  al., 2015; Suggitt et  al., 2018) showed that topographic diversity \r\nreduced population declines most strongly in areas experiencing the \r\nmost local warming and in the species most sensitive to warming. Under \r\nthese circumstances, topographic diversity reduced the risk of population \r\nextinction by 22% for plants and 9% for insects."


id: 8d17c00b4ed9aea0702a0fa4c302b319
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19725
content:
"None of the modelling techniques are predictions of the future, \r\nthey are rather projections of possible futures. To date, only a few \r\nstudies have validated model performance against observations, but \r\nthe studies that have been conducted do generally validate models \r\nusing either SDMs or process-based models (Johnston et  al., 2013; \r\nFordham et al., 2018). SDMs should be considered as hypotheses of \r\nwhat a future world might look like if the climate projections came \r\nto pass. Suggestions have been made on how to start bringing more \r\nbiotic interactions into SDMs (Early and Keith, 2019), but limited \r\nbasic ecological understanding of interactions, along with limits on \r\ncomputation and funding, constrains how far and how fast these \r\nmodelling techniques can advance."


id: dc0746c3c2ced911e73d4821243c697
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32132
content:
"In order to add realism and reliability to risk assessments at the species \r\nand community levels, non-modelling approaches, based on known \r\nbiological traits or processes as well as on expert opinion (Camac \r\net  al., 2021), are used to temper model outputs with ground-based \r\nvalidation. Trait-based assessment approaches use species' biological \r\ncharacteristics as predictors of sensitivity, adaptive capacity and \r\nextinction risk due to climate change. Climate exposure can be \r\nestimated using GIS-based modelling, statistical programs or expert \r\njudgment (Chin et al., 2010). These trait-based approaches are widely \r\napplied to predict responses of biodiversity to climate change because \r\nthey do not require modelling expertise or detailed distibutional data \r\n(Pacifici et al., 2015; Willis et al., 2015). Most of these methods have "


id: 6348a9f0b065c0e18dd406740d54e6ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 13191
content:
"This assessment of current findings is of studies across a range of taxa \r\nand modelling techniques. Extinction risk estimates whether or not a \r\nparticular species may be at risk of extinction over the coming decades \r\nif climatic trends continue, and usually does not take into account other \r\nhuman-induced stressors (e.g., invasive species or pollution). It is not a \r\nprediction that a species will definitely become extinct because, even \r\nwhen complete loss of a species' range is projected, the scale of the \r\nmodel cannot estimate persistence in very small-scale micro-climatic \r\nrefugia (that can be on the order of metres in size) (Suggitt et al., 2015; \r\nSuggitt et al., 2018). Individuals and populations can survive after the "


id: 9813e24791f1fb51655b39c9fe98e31e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 21434
content:
"Molluscs are projected to be the most at-risk group, given their \r\nlimited dispersal capability (Woodward et  al., 2010). Mediterranean \r\nfreshwater fish are especially susceptible to climate change due to \r\nincreasing flood and drought events and the risk of surpassing critical \r\ntemperature thresholds (Santiago et  al., 2016; Jaric et  al., 2019). In \r\nsouthern Europe, aquatic insects (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and \r\nTrichoptera) are endangered by climate change (Conti et  al., 2014). \r\nEuropean protected areas are not expected to be sufficient under \r\nwarming to provide habitat for the majority of rare molluscs and fish \r\n(Markovic et al., 2014). Observed trends agree with model projections \r\nin direction, but magnitude remains uncertain (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement, medium confidence) (see Figure 2.8 for extinction \r\nrisk globally for dragonflies, amphibians and turtles)."


id: e3d7aff1ac3abfe72d44ecb236b3ecdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 33325
content:
"conditions for successful reproduction are gone, leading to a lagged \r\ndecline, called 'extinction debt' (see section 2.4.2.8) (Alexander et al., \r\n2018). Therefore, range loss is an established criterion for assessing \r\nendangerment status and risk of extinction. As a species range \r\nbecomes smaller and occupied habitats become more isolated, the \r\nlikelihood of a single stochastic event causing extinction increases. \r\nIt is this combination of projected loss of climatically suitable space \r\nand additional stressors (especially LULCC of critical habitat) that is \r\nexpected to drive future extinctions."


id: 514edb00bf9d164343f00b162d0130e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 10247
content:
"The IUCN Red List Criteria (IUCN, 2019) classifies a species as \r\n'critically endangered' if it has suffered a range loss of >=80%, with \r\na resulting likelihood of extinction of >50% in the near term (10-\r\n100 yrs, depending upon generation length). A species is classified as \r\n'endangered' if it has suffered a range loss of >=50%, with a resulting \r\nlikelihood of extinction of >20% in the near term (10-100  years). \r\nIn this assessment, a species that is projected to become classified \r\nas 'endangered' is deemed to be at 'high risk' of extinction, and \r\nbecoming classified as 'critically endangered' is deemed at 'very high \r\nrisk' of extinction."


id: a3dae92167b4c41dfa594541a6ad02d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 23340
content:
"Regional threats from climate change have been reported for 40% of \r\namphibians in China, (Wu, 2020), 33% of European freshwater fish \r\nspecies (Janssen et  al., 2016) and 56-69% of odonates in Australia, \r\n(Bush et al., 2014b). Assessment of site-specific extirpation for 88 aquatic \r\ninsect taxa projected that climate change-induced hydrological alteration \r\nwould result in a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and \r\na 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Pyne and Poff, 2017). In Africa's Albertine Rift, 51% (n = \r\n551) of fish are expected to be impacted by climate change, with 5.5% \r\nat a high risk due to their sensitivity and poor adaptative capability \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement) (Carr et al., 2013)."


id: 180dcd6875e016e7fbbb21d2f47de0f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 1278
content:
"Because risk to freshwater species has been limited in past reports, this \r\nsection provides details of freshwater risk. Lakes, rivers and freshwater \r\nwetlands cover approximately 7.7-9.1% of global land surface area; \r\n(Lehner et al., 2008; Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2015; Allen and Pavelsky, \r\n2018) and hold 9.5% of the Earth's described animals (Balian et al., \r\n2008), with climate change indicated as a threat to 50-75% of fish \r\n(Xenopoulos et al., 2005; Darwall and Freyhof, 2015). Climate change \r\nis cited as a primary factor in species' extinction risk due to changes in \r\nwater temperatures, stream flow, loss of cold water habitat, increased \r\nvariability of precipitation and increased disease risk from warming \r\ntemperatures (robust evidence, high agreement, high confidence) \r\n(Knouft and Ficklin, 2017; Pletterbauer et al., 2018; Jaric et al., 2019; \r\nReid et al., 2019) adding to the stress of overexploitation and LULCC \r\n(Craig et al., 2017; IPBES, 2019)."


id: 77f44c28f26be74d3cdfa91cc3dde205
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 16434
content:
"The GLOBIO-Aquatic model (Janse et  al., 2015 a) links models for \r\ndemography, economy, LUCs, climate change, nutrient emissions, a \r\nglobal hydrological model and a global map of water bodies. It projects \r\nthat changes in both water quality (eutrophication) and quantity (flow) \r\nwill generate negative relations in freshwater ecosystems between \r\nthe persistence of species originally present in each community and \r\na constellation of stressors, including harmful algal blooms. Under a \r\n4degC rise by 2050, mean abundance of species is projected to decline \r\nby 70% in running water and by 80% in standing water (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement, medium confidence) (Janse et al., 2015 a )."


id: 88f8c891bad7fbf45f877b4cc049ccb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19091
content:
"Increased frequency of stream drying events, reducing hydrologic \r\nconnectivity and limiting access of native fishes to spawning habitats \r\nis projected for RCP8.5 in Colorado, USA (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Jaeger et al., 2014). Cold-water habitats and associated \r\nobligate species are particularly vulnerable, and losses in these \r\nhabitats have been both documented and projected, for example, \r\nin salmonids (Santiago et  al., 2016; Fullerton et  al., 2017; Merriam \r\net al., 2017). River networks are projected to lose connections to cold \r\ntributary refugia, that are important thermal refuges for cold water \r\nspecies (robust evidence, high agreement) (Isaak et al., 2016) during \r\nlow flows (Merriam et al., 2017)."


id: 4283edc8e0f9f756fe5c572a69c0667e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 7855
content:
"Community turnovers are expected in freshwaters as cold-adapted \r\nspecies lose and warm-adapted species gain climatically suitable \r\nhabitat (Domisch et al., 2011; Domisch et al., 2013; Shah et al., 2014). \r\nWhile a number of warm-adapted species may experience range \r\nexpansions, the majority of species are predicted to lose climatically \r\nsuitable areas by, on average, 38-44%, depending on the emission \r\nscenario (A2a and B2a) (medium evidence) (Domisch et al., 2013)."


id: c9ba58c77f459ee1602cf841395b0015
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"of the species, termed 'global biodiversity loss' (Figure 2.8b). This metric \r\n(losing > 50% of suitable climate space across the species' entire \r\nrange) also serves to estimate a species' becoming sufficiently rare \r\nthat the species no longer fully contributes to ecosystem functioning, \r\na state that often occurs decades before complete extinction (death of \r\nthe last individual). The proportions of species becoming at high risk of \r\nglobal extinction is the foundation for the burning embers diagram on \r\nglobal biodiversity loss in Table 2.5 and Figure 2.11."


id: bbda62aadc6db9518035eec69b075307
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content:
"Third is an assessment of risk of the proportions of species becoming at \r\nvery high risk of extinction globally at different levels of GSAT warming, \r\nmeasured using the IUCN criteria for 'critically endangered', and termed \r\n'species' extinction risk' (Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8a). This measure is "


id: 3f7047a3503aa7597120f8c84513a6fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Risk of global biodiversity loss differs among taxonomic groups. The \r\npercent of species projected at high risk of extinction was 49% for all \r\ninsects, 44% for all plants and 26% for all vertebrates at ~3degC global \r\nrise in temperature (Figure 2.8b) (Warren et al., 2018). These estimates \r\ndropped considerably at lower levels of warming, down to 18%, 16% \r\nand 8% at 2degC; and 6%, 8% and 4% at 1.5degC (Figure 2.8b) (Warren \r\net  al., 2018), so not entirely dissimilar to the numbers in AR4 \r\n(Figure 2.7)."


id: ad72af114ed9fba878e326e0fa2197c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"closest to assessing the complete loss of a species in the wild and \r\ncan be used to compare to past (palaeo) extinction rates. These three \r\napproaches provide complementary information of the overall risks \r\nto individual species, to biodiversity at the community scale, and to \r\necosystem integrity and functioning at different levels of warming."


id: 3b4fa3492aab4271eab82996a6835dc6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Risk of local biodiversity loss, estimated as the proportion of species \r\nin a given area projected to become endangered (sensu IUCN), and \r\ntherefore at high risk of extinction, is projected to affect a greater \r\nnumber of regions experiencing increasing warming. About one-third \r\nof land area risks more than 50% of species becoming \"endangered\" \r\nby 4.0deg GSAT warming (Figure 2.6). That is, the deep orange and red \r\nareas in Figure 2.6 are those areas for which >50% of species currently \r\ninhabiting those ecosystems are projected to lose >50% of their \r\nclimatically suitable habitat. Species' losses are projected to be worst \r\nin northern South America, southern Africa, most of Australia and at \r\nnorthern high latitudes (medium confidence) (Figure 2.6)."


id: db7de7e12bbe1edaebea145c3e5b8d0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"For risk of global biodiversity loss, at 1.58degC global warming (median \r\nestimate), >10% of species are projected to become \"endangered\", and \r\nso at high risk of extinction (sensu IUCN). At 2.07degC (median) >20% of \r\nspecies are projected to become endangered. Ten-twenty percent losses \r\nrepresent high and very high risk of biodiversity losses, respectively, \r\nsubstantial enough to reduce ecosystem integrity and functioning \r\n(medium confidence) (Figure  2.8b) (see Section  2.5.4; Figure  2.11; \r\nTable 2.5, Table SM2.5)."


id: 2c6e69120cb838a12150ed2289fbec1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"(a) Species groups listed projected to be at a very high risk of extinction, corresponding to the IUCN Red List criteria for a species classified as 'critically endangered' (v3.1) by \r\nlosing >80% of its climatically suitable range area."


id: f8cd722368db608298afb5a41614706
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"While malaria risk is predicted to decrease in some lowland tropical \r\nareas as temperatures become too hot for vector or parasite \r\ndevelopment, other warm-adapted diseases, like dengue and Zika, \r\ntransmitted by A. aegypti, are predicted to increase (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox Illness in this chapter, chapter 7) (Ryan et al., 2019; Ryan et al., \r\n2021). In more temperate regions, arboviruses and other VBDs with \r\nwider thermal breadths, such as West Nile fever, Ross River fever and \r\nLyme disease, are predicted to increase with climate warming (Ogden \r\net al., 2008; Leighton et al., 2012; Shocket et al., 2018; Shocket et al., \r\n2020; Couper et al., 2021). Drought can exacerbate these effects of \r\ntemperature (Paull et al., 2017)."


id: 28c733cc58a69378a75bd90ce0b5c082
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Figure 2.8 also shows the benefits of dispersal in reducing extinction \r\nrisk in birds, mammals, butterflies, moths and dragonflies (depicted \r\nwith an asterix). While dispersal may benefit individual species, it poses \r\nadditional risks to communities and ecosystems that species are moving \r\ninto, as interactions between species are changed or eliminated."


id: 17bc3f49b84d27de25c9e477336a4463
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Projected species extinctions at future global warming levels are in \r\naccord with projections from AR4, assessed on much larger numbers of \r\nspecies with much greater geographic coverage and a broader range \r\nof climate models. (Figure 2.7; Figure 2.8a). Even the lowest estimates \r\nof species extinction (median of 9% at 1.5degC warming, Figure 2.7) are \r\n1000 times the natural background rates (De Vos et al., 2015)."


id: 17dff8dd4de0d0143845ba28e0233452
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"A global analysis of 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite \r\ncombinations found that organisms adapted to cool and mild climates \r\nare likely to experience increased risks of outbreaks along with climate \r\nwarming, while warm-adapted organisms may experience a lower \r\ndisease risk, providing further support for predictions that climate \r\nchange will increase the transmission of infectious diseases at higher \r\nlatitudes across a taxonomically diverse array of pathogens (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Cohen et al., 2020). A study examining the \r\nfuture risk of arboviruses (chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika \r\nviruses) spread by A. aegypti and A. albopictus projected increased \r\ndisease risk due to interactions of multiple variables, including \r\nincreased human connectivity, urbanisation and climate change \r\n(Kraemer et al., 2019), although vector species' ranges will broaden \r\nonly slightly (Campbell et al., 2015)."


id: 6242c80e0bee9067a2e8f9fd02eb9d99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Using data from geological timescales, (Song et al., 2021) predicted \r\nthat a warming of 5.2degC above pre-industrial levels would result in a \r\nmass extinction comparable to that of the five mass extinctions over \r\nthe past 540 Myr, on the order of 70-85% of species becoming extinct, \r\nin the absence of non-climatic stressor. (Mathes et  al., 2021) found \r\nevidence in the geological record that short-term rapid warming, \r\non top of long-term warming trends, increases extinction risk by up \r\nto 40% over that expected from the long-term trend alone, with a \r\nbiodiversity 'memory' of up to 60 Myr, indicating an additonal risk of \r\nmulti-decadal overshoot."


id: be6d0082d10d249465f365174422d287
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27509
content:
"Most of the large-scale studies that have been performed are \r\nfor losses based on climate alone (Figures  2.6, 2.7, 2.8). However, \r\nclimate is rarely the only stressor affecting species survival. Habitat \r\nloss is currently the largest driver of range loss and extinction risk \r\nfor most species (IUCN, 2019). Communities in different regions are \r\nbecoming more similar to each other as species tolerant of human \r\nactivities prosper and spread, with many rare and endemic species \r\nalready having been driven to extinction, primarily by LULCC (Pimm \r\net al., 2006). Thus, it will likely be the interaction of climate change \r\nand habitat conversion (often driven by climate change) that will \r\nultimately determine the risk and ability of many species to survive \r\nover the next century."


id: aeda847f28ae6fe0eaa882c063dbfe6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 25045
content:
"In sum, climate change is expected to expand and redistribute the \r\nburden of vector-borne and other environmentally transmitted \r\ndiseases of wild animals, domesticated animals and humans, by \r\nshifting many regions toward the thermal optima of VBD transmission \r\nfor multiple parasites, thereby increasing risk of transmission, while \r\npushing temperatures above optimal and towards upper thermal limits \r\nfor other vectors and pathogens, thus decreasing their transmission \r\n(high confidence)(see also chapter 7) (Mordecai et al., 2019; Mordecai \r\net al., 2020). These effects are mediated by other human impacts such \r\nas LUC, mobility, socioeconomic conditions and vector and pathogen \r\ncontrol measures (Parham et al., 2015; Tjaden et al., 2018)."


id: ac13b7f3590d2abca7aa7d8c8fed5416
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content:
"Shifts in terrestrial biome and changes in ecosystem processes in \r\nresponse to climate change are most frequently projected with dynamic \r\nglobal vegetation models (DGVMs) or land-surface models that form \r\npart of ESMs, which use gridded climate variables, atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentration and information on soil properties as input variables. \r\nSince AR5, most DGVMs have been upgraded to capture carbon-\r\nnitrogen cycle interactions (e.g., (Le Quere et  al., 2018), many also \r\ninclude a representation of wildfire and fire-vegetation interactions \r\n(Rabin et  al., 2017) and a small number now also account for land \r\nmanagement (e.g., wood removal from forests and crop fertilisation \r\nharvest of irrigation (Arneth et al., 2017). Other forms of disturbance, "


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"does not address sources of uncertainty and it would be advisable \r\nto perform 'perturbed-physics' experiments, in which multiple model \r\nparameters are varied in parallel more frequently as a means to test \r\nparameter-value uncertainty (Wramneby et  al., 2008; Booth et  al., \r\n2012; Lienert and Joos, 2018)."


id: fc8b5ff471697b8c593d3cc5878dec80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 37249
content:
"such as tree mortality, in response to, for example, episodic weather \r\nextremes or insect pest outbreaks, are relatively poorly represented \r\nor not at all, although they demonstrably impact calculated carbon \r\ncycling (Pugh et al., 2019a). Simulated biome shifts are generally in \r\nagreement in projecting broad patterns on a global scale but vary \r\ngreatly regarding the simulated trends in historical and future carbon \r\nuptake or losses, both regionally and globally (Chang et  al., 2017; \r\nCanadell et al., 2021)."


id: c08fca75e2fec3cf03d66286d5ab038e
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content:
"Species diversity impacts ecosystem functioning and hence ecosystem \r\nservices (Hooper et al., 2012; Mokany et al., 2016). So far, however, \r\nintegrated modelling of ecosystem processes and biodiversity across \r\nmultiple trophic levels and food webs is in its infancy (Harfoot et al., \r\n2014). Whether or not the enhanced integration of state, function \r\nand functional diversity across multiple trophic levels in models will \r\nmarkedly alter projections of how ecosystems respond to climate \r\nchange thus remains an open research question."


id: 8cffde7a22dc585029ab8bce543eb728
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Similar to other models, models to project large-scale changes in \r\nvegetation and ecosystem processes have to deal with structural \r\nuncertainty (associated with the choice and the representation of \r\nprocesses in models), input-data uncertainty (associated with variability \r\nin initial conditions and parameter values) and error propagation \r\n(associated with coupling models) (Rounsevell et  al., 2019). The \r\nIPBES methodological assessment report on scenarios and models \r\nof biodiversity and ecosystem services provides a comprehensive \r\noverview over the relevant issues (Ferrier et al., 2016)."


id: 52a11d63fe32e2e0d4845a8d8aa2f70e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Beyond dynamic simulation of biome shifts and carbon cycling, which \r\nare important aspects of climate regulation, DGVMs can also provide \r\ninformation on a number of variables closely linked to other ecosystem \r\nservices such as water availability, air quality or food provisioning \r\n(Krause et al., 2017; Rabin et al., 2020). However, they are not intended \r\nto provide a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem services. For \r\nthese, other approaches applied but, to date, these are mostly applied \r\non regional scales and are only weakly dynamic (Ferrier et al., 2016)."


id: d0b6c63b731b931d90e4a80f782c851a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"In order to assess performance, most models have been individually \r\nevaluated against a range of observations. Moreover, in the annual \r\nupdates of the global carbon budgets, a model has to meet a small \r\nset of basic criteria to have its output included (Le Quere et al., 2018). \r\nMore systematic benchmarking approaches have also been proposed \r\nthat utilise a range of different datasets (Kelley et  al., 2013; Chang \r\net al., 2017) to assess multiple simulated processes. These methods, in \r\nprinciple, facilitate assigning quality scores to models based on their \r\noverall performance (Kelley et al., 2013). So far, this scoring does not \r\nyet allow a clear quality ranking of models, since individual DGVMs \r\ntend to score well for some variables and badly for others. A recent \r\ncomparison of global fire-vegetation model outputs was also able to \r\nclearly identify outliers when using a formalised benchmarking and \r\nscoring approach (Hantson et  al., 2020). However, benchmarking "


id: 4f0d4ef940c02ea2ad1f612e053a44ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Climate change and the associated change in atmospheric CO2 levels \r\nalready exacerbate other human-caused impacts on the structure \r\nand composition of land and freshwater ecosystems, such as LULCC, \r\nnitrogen deposition and pollution. The relative importance of these \r\ndrivers for ecosystems over the coming decades will likely differ \r\nbetween biomes, but climate change and atmospheric CO2 will be \r\npervasive unless there is a rapid lowering of fossil-fuel emissions and "


id: 4a82a2a83141ea975929447aa1c1b35e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Figure 2.9 |  Projected fraction of global terrestrial area that could experience a biome shift by 2100. Shifts due to climate change (filled symbols) or a combination \r\nof climate change and LUC (outline symbols), from publications in Supplementary Table SM2.3 (projected vulnerabilities and risks of ecosystems to biome shifts). Filled circles \r\n(Bergengren et al., 2011), filled squares (Alo and Wang, 2008), filled diamonds (Gonzalez et al., 2010), filled triangle pointing up (Scholze et al., 2006), filled triangle pointing down \r\n(Sitch et al., 2008), filled triangle on its side (Li et al., 2018), filled cross (Warszawski et al., 2013), outlined circle (Ostberg et al., 2018)and outlined diamond (Eigenbrod et al., 2015)."


id: 75f2ba9504427786670a6928035fe5da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"warming (high confidence) (Pereira et al., 2010; Warren, 2011; Ostberg \r\net al., 2013; Davies-Barnard et al., 2015; Pecl et al., 2017; Ostberg et al., \r\n2018). Global vegetation and ESMs agree on climate change-driven \r\nshifts of biome boundaries of potentially hundreds of kilometres over \r\nthis century, combined with several substantial alterations that take \r\nplace within biomes (e.g., changes in phenology, canopy structure and \r\nfunctional diversity, etc.). Large discrepancies exist between models \r\nand between scenarios regarding the region and the speed of change \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Pereira et al., 2010; Pecl et al., 2017), but robust \r\nunderstanding is emerging in that the degree of impact increases \r\nin high-emission and high-warming scenarios (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 2.9)."


id: e6d92042067998602e9d71fe0123e6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Range retractions are projected for endemic plants in southern Africa \r\n(Young et  al., 2016) and dry woodlands in Morocco (Alba-Sanchez \r\net al., 2015). Increasing thermal stress is projected to increase woody \r\nplant mortality in the Sonoran Desert ecosystems (Munson et  al., \r\n2016) and facilitate perennial grass replacement by xeric shrubs in \r\nthe southwestern USA (Bestelmeyer et  al., 2018). Ecological effects \r\nmay occur rapidly when extreme events compound long-term trends \r\n(Hoover et  al., 2015), but evolve more slowly as opportunity costs \r\naccumulate due to warming (Cross-Chapter Paper 3) (Cunningham \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 6dcde513d2a41581d73380899d998410
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"The regions containing MTEs all show high confidence in projected \r\nincreases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decreases \r\nin the intensity and frequency of cold extremes, and medium confidence\r\nin increasing ecological drought due to increased evapotranspiration \r\n(in all regions) and reduced rainfall (excluding California, USA, \r\nwhere model agreement is low) (see WGI Chapter 11). Projections \r\nalso show a robust increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy \r\nprecipitation in the event of >=2degC warming for MTEs in South Africa, \r\nthe Mediterranean Basin and California, USA, but are less clear for \r\nAustralia and Chile (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 650f2b17df8ac584cc3b037136bc0f1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"MTEs are characterised by the distinctive seasonal timing of \r\nprecipitation and temperature, and the disruption of this regime is \r\nlikely to be critical for their maintenance. Unfortunately, projections of \r\nchanges in rainfall seasonality have received less attention and are far \r\nmore uncertain than many other aspects of climate change (Pascale \r\net al., 2016; Breinl et al., 2020), thus limiting our ability to predict the \r\necological consequences of climate change in MTEs. Responses to \r\nexperimental manipulation of rainfall seasonality show the potential \r\nfor shifts in plant functional composition and diversity loss, but results \r\nvary with soil type (van Blerk et al., 2021)."


id: e821ba9b5005fe8afa2cac1ad4fedcd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Unfortunately, global- and regional-scale dynamic vegetation models \r\nshow a poor performance for large areas of MTEs, because they do not \r\ncharacterise shrub and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM)-photosyn\u0002thetic plant functional types well (Moncrieff et al., 2015). Furthermore, \r\nthe grain of these models is too coarse for quantifying impacts to many \r\nvegetation formations which are patchy or of limited extent (e.g., small \r\nstands of trees). There is high confidence that observations of high mor\u0002tality in trees and other growth forms, reduced reproductive and recruit\u0002ment success, range shifts, community shifts towards more thermophilic \r\nspecies and type conversions are set to continue, due to either direct cli\u0002mate impacts through drought and other extreme weather events or to \r\ntheir interaction with factors like fire and pathogens (Sections 2.4.3.5, \r\n2.4.3.6; 2.4.3.7; 2.4.4.2; 2.4.4.3; 2.5.2.5, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.4)."


id: 3465f36342de950a3a6e09f3d5067df1
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content:
"Fire is a key driver across most MTEs due to summer-dry conditions. \r\nClimate projections for the MTEs translate into high confidence that \r\nperiods of low fuel moisture will become more severe and prolonged, \r\nand that episodes of extreme fire weather will become more frequent \r\nand severe (see (Douville et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021)). This \r\nwill lead to the birth of novel fire regimes in MTEs, characterised by \r\nan increase in the probability of greater burned area and extreme \r\nwildfire events (e.g., megafires), with associated loss of human life \r\nand property, long-term impacts on ecosystems and acceleration of \r\nthe possible loss of resilience and capacity to recover (Abatzoglou and \r\nWilliams, 2016; Gonzalez et al., 2018; Boer et al., 2020; Moreira et al., \r\n2020; Nolan et al., 2020; Duane et al., 2021; Gallagher et al., 2021)."


id: c05d34b89f50fe0aca58e16486e3e2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Fire is virtually certain to have additional impacts through compound \r\nevents (see Section  11.8 in (Seneviratne et  al., 2021)). Extreme \r\npost-fire weather is extremely likely to continue to impact diversity \r\n(Slingsby et  al., 2017), retard vegetation regrowth (Slingsby et  al., \r\n2020a) and accelerate vegetation shifts (Batllori et  al., 2019). Any \r\nincreases in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation are \r\nhighly likely to compromise soil stability in recently burnt areas \r\n(Moran-Ordonez et  al., 2020). The impacts of fire often depend on \r\ninteractions with non-climatic factors such as habitat fragmentation \r\n(Slingsby et  al., 2020b) and management (Steel et  al., 2015) or the \r\nspread of flammable exotic plantation forestry and invasive species \r\n(Kraaij et  al., 2018; McWethy et  al., 2018). Managing these factors \r\nprovides opportunities for adaptation and mitigation (Moreira et al., \r\n2020). (See sections 2.4.4.2 and 2.5.3.2)."


id: d6b7c36ceb49f58655751529f7f58695
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Human adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change \r\nmay create additional threats to MTEs. MTEs have dry summers by \r\ndefinition, posing a challenge for the year-round supply of water \r\nto growing human populations and agriculture. With recent major \r\ndroughts in all MTEs (Section 2.4.3.6), there is increasing reliance on \r\ngroundwater for the bulk of the water supply (Kaiser and Macleod, \r\n2018). The majority of groundwater systems have exceeded or are \r\nrapidly approaching their environmental flow limits (de Graaf et al., \r\n2019), threatening human populations and ecosystems that depend \r\non these systems for their persistence through unfavourable climatic \r\nconditions (McLaughlin et al., 2017). Similarly, much of the MTEs are \r\nopen shrublands and grasslands and proposed extensive tree-planting \r\nto sequester atmospheric CO2 could result in a loss of biodiversity \r\nand threaten water security (Doblas-Miranda et al., 2017; Bond et al., \r\n2019)."


id: dffc6033157b46041b8adbecab2a3c55
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content:
"Like the tropical forest biome, savannas are at a high risk, given \r\nthe projected climate changes in combination with LULCC (see \r\nCross-Chapter Paper 3). About 50% of the Brazilian Cerrado has been \r\nconverted to agricultural land and pastures (Lehman and Parr, 2016), \r\nand African savannas have been proposed to follow a similar tropical \r\nagricultural revolution pathway to enhance agronomic prosperity \r\n(Ryan et  al., 2016). In fact, indirect climate change impacts arising \r\nfrom mitigation efforts may be particularly perilous to savannas; \r\nextensive tree-planting to restore ecosystems and remove CO2 from \r\nthe atmosphere, as pledged, for example, under the African Forest \r\nRestoration Initiative, could lead to carbon losses and the loss of \r\nbiodiversity as well as damage the water balance if trees are planted \r\non what was naturally grassland or savanna (Box 2.2; FAQ 2.6) (Bond \r\net al., 2019)."


id: b94a488737038d393ea0607ee440a39c
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content:
"et  al., 2011), found in tropical and subtropical forests that birds, \r\ninvertebrates, mammals and reptiles show a decline in their probability \r\nof presence with declining forest cover, particularly pronounced in \r\nforest specialists or species with narrow ranges (Newbold et al., 2014). \r\nDifferent soil fauna groups showed different responses in abundance \r\nand diversity to climate change conditions (Coyle et al., 2017; Facey \r\net al., 2017) but these responses can impact decomposition rates and \r\nbiogeochemical cycles (medium evidence, low agreement)."


id: c9c3c56793bd65a663dbc9141f132407
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"Invasive plant species are predicted to expand upward by 500-\r\n1,500 m in the western Himalayas (Thapa et al., 2018), and by 6-35% \r\nyr-1 from the current extent in South America (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Bhattarai and Cronin, 2014). Global assessment (Wang \r\net al., 2017) also revealed that ecoregions of high-elevation tropical \r\nforests and subtropical coniferous forests have a high risk of invasive \r\nplant expansion in low-CO2-emission scenarios, with negative impacts \r\non ecosystem functioning and local livelihoods (Shrestha et al., 2019)."


id: 10e49291fcfab63b0f812d2adbfdfbf5
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content:
"SLR as the result of climate change is likely to influence mangroves \r\nin all regions, with greater impact on North and Central America, \r\nAsia, Australia and East Africa than on West Africa and South America \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Alongi, 2015; Ward et al., 2016). \r\nOn a small scale, mangroves are potentially moving landward (Di \r\nNitto et al., 2014), while on a large scale they will continue to expand \r\npoleward (Alongi, 2015)."


id: 8482b4a5568b008d92b8506f965314ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"As in the Arctic, warming substantially exceeding the global average \r\nhas already been observed in the northern parts of the temperate \r\nand boreal forest zone (Gauthier et  al., 2015), and is projected to \r\ncontinue (see Cross-Chapter Paper 6 and (Lee et  al., 2021)). As a \r\nconsequence, boreal tree species are expected to move northwards (or \r\nin mountainous regions, upwards) into regions dominated by tundra, \r\nunless constrained by edaphic features, and temperate species are \r\nprojected to grow in regions currently occupied by southern boreal \r\nforest (high confidence). In both biomes, deciduous trees are simulated \r\nto grow increasingly in regions currently dominated by conifers \r\n(Warlind et al., 2014; Boulanger et al., 2017). These simulation results \r\nhave been supported by observational examples. In eastern Siberia, \r\nfire disturbance of larch-dominated forest was followed by recovery \r\nto birch-dominated forest (Stuenzi and Schaepman-Strub, 2020). In "


id: 5f9413d976ec0b1b28c2311b569b305c
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content:
"Statistical models that correlate data on species abundance with \r\ninformation on human pressures, such as LUCs (Srichaichana et  al., \r\n2019), population density (Leclere et al., 2020) and hunting (Mockrin "


id: c2fd93c24e72239410e846c113f4244c
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content:
"Alberta, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) lost its dominant status after \r\nattacks by mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) caused \r\nthe canopy to switch to non-pine conifers and broadleaf trees (Axelson \r\net al., 2018). In contrast to the examples above, some boreal forests \r\nhave proven resilient to disturbances including recent unprecedented \r\ninsect outbreaks (Campbell et al., 2019a; Prendin et al., 2020)."


id: c1214ed1540cdcbb15caed6372f59d53
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content:
"2020; Loisel et  al., 2021) which are mainly caused by groundwater \r\ndrawdown (robust evidence, medium agreement) (Hirano et al., 2014; \r\nBrouns et al., 2015; Cobb et al., 2017; Itoh et al., 2017; Evans et al., \r\n2021). The overall northern peatland carbon sink has been simulated \r\nto persist for at least 300 years under RCP2.6, but not under RCP8.5 \r\n(Qiu et al., 2020)."


id: 579f774fd1aba8caa1e304faa2ad35e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Reforestation, either natural or anthropogenic, leads to summer cooling \r\nand winter warming of the ground, while forest thinning or removal \r\nby fire has reverse effects, deepening the upper layer that is free of \r\npermafrost (Stuenzi et  al., 2021a). Interactions between permafrost \r\nand vegetation are important. For example, trees in the east Siberian \r\ntaiga obtained water mostly from rain in wet summers and permafrost \r\nmelt water in dry summers (Sugimoto et al., 2002), suggesting that \r\nthese forests will be particularly vulnerable to the combination of \r\ndrought with the retraction of permafrost further underground due to \r\nclimate warming."


id: 74c356e4fcd27cdbd85afeeb7309aef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Regarding permafrost peatlands, studies differ, with some projecting \r\na net loss and others a net gain of carbon (medium evidence, low \r\nagreement) (Estop-Aragones et al., 2018; Hugelius et al., 2020; Loisel \r\net  al., 2021; Valiranta et  al., 2021). In some permafrost peatlands, \r\nprolonged and warmer growing seasons due to climate change \r\n(Section 2.3.4.3.1), along with increases in nitrogen deposition since \r\n1850 (Lamarque et al., 2013), are promoting plant primary productivity. \r\nOther studies indicate that increased nitrogen-mediated sequestration \r\ncould be exceeded by increased decomposition due to climate \r\nchange-driven warming and fire (medium evidence, low agreement) \r\n(Natali et al., 2012; Vonk et al., 2015; Keuper et al., 2017; Burd et al., \r\n2018; Estop-Aragones et al., 2018; Gallego-Sala et al., 2018; Serikova \r\net al., 2018; Wild et al., 2019; Chaudhary et al., 2020; Hugelius et al., \r\n2020)."


id: 46bab0d5162878c2662e83c56e3688ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"The combination of changes in climate and land use represents a \r\nsubstantial risk to peatland carbon stocks, but full assessment is \r\nimpeded because peatlands are yet to be included in ESMs (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Loisel et al., 2021). It is expected that the \r\ncarbon balance of peatlands globally will switch from sink to source \r\nin the near future (2020-2100), mainly because tropical peatland \r\nemissions, together with those from climate change-driven permafrost \r\nthaw, will likely surpass the carbon gain expected from climate \r\nchange-driven enhanced plant productivity in northern high latitudes \r\n(Gallego-Sala et  al., 2018; Chaudhary et  al., 2020; Turetsky et  al., "


id: f3132d99f7cfafc708fb6ae9adb0c4d1
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content:
"2020; Muller and Joos, 2020; Qiu et al., 2020; Tangang et al., 2020; \r\nTaufik et al., 2020; Turetsky et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2021a; Evans et al., \r\n2021; Loisel et al., 2021; Nelson et al., 2021; Qiu et al., 2021)."


id: f284fed69a2661c29a2cb94212155065
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"2.5.2.10 Committed Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial \r\nEcosystems and Implications of Overshoot"


id: ec156504fb09d9878e370764fe414cb
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Projections point to potentially large changes of canopy structure and \r\ncomposition within and across the terrestrial biomes in response to \r\nclimate change and changes in atmospheric CO2. These changes will \r\ncontribute to altered ecosystem carbon uptake and losses, biophysical \r\nclimate feedbacks (Sections  2.3.2; 2.4.4; 2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3. 2.5.3.4, \r\n2.5.3.5, Figure 2.10, Table 2.4) and multiple other ecosystem services \r\n(Sections 2.5.3, 2.5.4) as well impacts on biodiversity (Sections 2.4.2, \r\n2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.4.5, 2.5.1.3, 2.5.1.4, 2.5.2, Figure Box  2.1.1, Table \r\nBox 2.1.1, Table SM2.4). Until now, most studies project changes over \r\nnext decades until the end of this century."


id: 2e597d37e8db8fd4f4837bb190fca4be
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content:
"For boreal-tundra systems, AR5 projected the transformation of species \r\ncomposition, land cover and permafrost extent, decreasing albedo \r\nand increasing GHG emissions (medium confidence). SR1.5 classified \r\ntundra and boreal forests as particularly vulnerable to degradation \r\nand encroachment by woody shrubs (high confidence). The SROCC \r\nprojected climate-related changes to arctic hydrology, wildfires and \r\nabrupt thaw (high confidence) and the broad disappearance of arctic \r\nnear-surface permafrost this century, with important consequences for \r\nglobal climate (very high confidence). Chapter 2 of AR6 has focused \r\non new key findings about observed and projected changes in tundra \r\nvegetation and related hydrology, with implications for feedbacks to \r\nthe climate system."


id: 8d5fc49ef384cc160b8e938d9170a2cd
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"However, there is an increasing body of literature that has found \r\ncontinued, longer-term responses of ecosystems to climate change, \r\nso-called 'committed changes', that arise from lags that exist in many \r\nsystems. Many processes in ecosystems take more than a few decades \r\nto quasi-equilibrate to environmental changes. Therefore, the trends \r\nof changing vegetation cover identified in simulations of transient \r\nwarming continue to show up in simulations that hold climate change \r\nat low levels of warming (medium confidence) (Boulton et al., 2017; \r\nPugh et  al., 2018; Scheiter et  al., 2020). Such changes, which could \r\ntip ecosystems into an alternative state, could also be triggered by \r\na 'warming overshoot' if global warming were to exceed a certain \r\nthreshold, even if mean temperatures afterwards decline again (Albrich \r\net al., 2020a)."


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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5775
content:
"Due to the rapid warming at high northern latitudes, the Arctic tundra \r\nis one of the terrestrial biomes where climate change impacts are \r\nalready clearly visible (Settele et al., 2014; Uboni et al., 2016). Climate \r\nmodels project that warming of the Arctic is likely to continue at more \r\nthan double the global rate. Compared to the period 1995-2014, mean \r\nannual surface air temperatures in the Arctic tundra are projected to \r\nincrease by 7.9degC-10degC by the end of the century in scenarios of \r\nhigh GHG emissions (RCP7.0 and RCP8.5). In scenarios of low GHG \r\nemissions (RCP1.9 and RCP2.6), the projected increase is 2.6degC-3.2degC \r\n(Lee et  al., 2021). The Arctic is also projected to have amongst the \r\nlargest increases in precipitation globally, but with high uncertainty. \r\nIn contrast to climate change, LUC is projected to be very low in Arctic \r\ntundra systems (van Asselen and Verburg, 2013)."


id: 8dd2a0a613e654a216406150774af99a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19840
content:
"Figure Box 2.1.1 |  Observed changes in the distribution of plant functional types that are caused by climate change or a combination of land use \r\nand climate change. Shifts in plant functional types are indicative of shift in biome function and structure. Based upon studies listed in Table SM2.4 and section 2.4."


id: 1ccbf6f11df387475513e686d6f5284a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 1982
content:
"Table Box 2.1.1 |  Comparison of projections on biome change from AR3, AR4 and AR5 (IPCC, 2001; Fischlin et al., 2007; Settele et al., 2014), with observed changes \r\nin ecosystems as assessed in this report (see Section 2.4, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.4). Observed changes marked in bold show good agreement with past projections; \r\nthose in red show mismatch with observations and projections."


id: b961d4678e52f82b1eef0b7d03c8b54c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 26709
content:
"Projections of the future of Mediterranean shrublands, deserts, xeric shrublands and temperate grassy systems are limited, making \r\nassessment of this relationship less clear. It is also unclear, due to limited observations, how widespread a shift there is from deciduous \r\nforest species to evergreen forest species. Some observations suggest this is occurring, but it is not clear how widespread this change is \r\nand if the geographical pattern is as projected."


id: db91bce080dac9c83cc9f7284c169caa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 32062
content:
"Under a climate change scenario of ~3.5degC temperature increase \r\nby 2070, current climate could disappear from individual protected \r\nareas that comprise half the global protected area, and novel climates \r\n(climate conditions that are currently not present in an individual \r\nprotected area) could emerge in half the global protected area \r\n(Hoffmann et al., 2019b). A lower-emissions scenario of ~1.5degC could \r\nreduce the disappearance of current climate conditions to 40% and the \r\nexposure to novel climates to 41% (Hoffmann et al., 2019b). Models \r\nproject the highest exposure to novel climates in subtropical projected \r\nareas (Hoffmann and Beierkuhnlein, 2020). Projected disappearance \r\nof current climate conditions in protected areas is most extensive in \r\nAfrica, Oceania, and North and South America (Elsen et al., 2020)."


id: c77f3bc485b7e7c13173e5242d44c0cb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"National parks and other protected areas which, in June 2021, covered \r\n15.7% of the global terrestrial area (UNEP-WCMC et  al., 2021), \r\nconserve greater biodiversity than adjacent unprotected areas (Gray \r\net al., 2016), and protect one-fifth of global vegetation carbon stocks \r\nand one-tenth of global soil carbon stocks (Section 2.4.4.4). This section \r\nassesses climate change specifically in protected areas. Even though it \r\nis included in a part of the chapter on projected risks, it includes both \r\nobserved exposure and projected risks to gather the information on \r\nprotected areas into one place."


id: d2b50c13bc7d7c4805199a1b61d9953a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 30670
content:
"Continued climate change increases the risks to individual species and \r\nvegetation types in protected areas. Under a climate change scenario \r\nof 4degC temperature increase by 2100, the suitable climate for two \r\nspecies of baobab trees (Adansonia perrieri and A. suarezensis) in "


id: baf7bf7543a49de8bb67bf3e0aa3d18b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"and Lasslop, 2017) and projected increases of fire frequency to ~20% \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2015). Continued climate change \r\ncould further lengthen fire weather seasons (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). \r\nModels combining projected climate change with potential agricultural \r\nexpansion project decreases in total burned area (Huang et al., 2015; \r\nKnorr et al., 2016b; Park et al., 2021). The area of projected increases in \r\nburned area and fire frequency due solely to continued climate change \r\nis higher for the world as a whole than the area of projected decreases \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 7719016af11444111e608d0c6cdd300d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 16304
content:
"Madagascar could shift entirely out of the protected areas network \r\n(Vieilledent et al., 2013). Other species and vegetation types at risk \r\nfrom the partial disappearance of suitable climate in protected areas \r\ninclude Atlantic Forest amphibians in Brazil (Lemes et al., 2014), birds \r\nin Finland (Virkkala et al., 2013), birds and trees in Canada and Mexico \r\n(Stralberg et al., 2020), bog woodlands in Germany (Steinacker et al., \r\n2019), butterflies and mammals in Egypt (Leach et  al., 2013) and \r\ntropical dry forests in Mexico (Prieto-Torres et  al., 2016). Projected \r\ndisappearance of suitable climate conditions in protected areas \r\nincrease risks to the survival of species and vegetation types of \r\nconservation concern in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems \r\n(high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 1)."


id: 60c17aed221f4f53251a912f07f73dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 12793
content:
"Increased wildfire due to continued climate change increases risks \r\nof tree mortality (Sections  2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.2), biome shifts \r\n(Section  2.5.2.2) and carbon emissions (Sections  2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4). \r\nWildfire and biome shifts under a projected climate change of 4degC \r\nabove the pre-industrial period, combined with international trade \r\nand transport, cause high risks from invasive species across one-sixth \r\nof the global area including extensive high-biodiversity regions (Early \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 2c3b3c6826227d1584e85beb904401e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Protected rivers, lakes and other freshwater protected areas require \r\ninter-catchment connectivity to maintain species and population \r\nmovements (Bush et al., 2014a; Hermoso et al., 2016; Thieme et al., \r\n2016), but dams and other barriers interrupt connectivity (Grill et al., \r\n2019). Climate change could also reduce freshwater connectivity \r\n(Section 2.3.3.3). Globally, over two-thirds of river reaches (by length) \r\nlack protected areas in their upstream catchments and nine-tenths \r\nof river reaches (by length) do not achieve full, integrated protection \r\n(Abell et al., 2017)."


id: e87bd2ab4f4073c030f61e23fc29866c
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content:
"Regions identified by multiple global analyses as being at a high risk \r\nof increased burned area, fire frequency and fire weather include: the \r\nAmazon (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2015; Knorr et al., 2016b; \r\nBurton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., 2019), Mediterranean Europe \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Burton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., 2019), \r\nthe Arctic tundra (Moritz et al., 2012; Flannigan et al., 2013), Western \r\nAustralia (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Burton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., \r\n2019) and the western USA (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moritz et al., 2012; \r\nKnorr et al., 2016b). Higher-resolution spatial projections indicate high \r\nrisks of increased wildfire in the Amazon, Australia, boreal ecosystems, \r\nMediterranean Europe and the USA with climate change (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


id: 1e394705c77588e5cc1977d1da1e5abd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 2195
content:
"Continued climate change under high-emission scenarios that increase \r\nglobal temperature ~4degC by 2100 could increase global burned area \r\nby 50% (Knorr et al., 2016b) to 70% (Kloster and Lasslop, 2017) and \r\nglobal mean fire frequency by ~30% (Gonzalez et  al., 2010), with \r\nincreases on one-third (Gonzalez et  al., 2010) to two-thirds (Moritz \r\net al., 2012) and decreases on one-fifth (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moritz \r\net  al., 2012) of land globally. Lower emissions that would limit the \r\nglobal temperature increase to <2degC would reduce projected increases \r\nof global burned area to 30% (Lange et  al., 2020) to 35% (Kloster "


id: dd71575c24c3e0cb5e789d931a89312a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 32339
content:
"In the Amazon, climate change under RCP8.5, combined with high \r\ndeforestation, could double the area of high fire probability (Fonseca \r\net al., 2019), double the burned area by 2050 (Brando et al., 2020), \r\nincrease the burned area by 400-2800% by 2100 (Le Page et al., 2017) "


id: 442837f1aad55060055d0ad2875df79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 8144
content:
"climate change could increase invasive grasses and wildfire in desert \r\necosystems of the southwestern USA where wildfire has historically \r\nbeen absent or infrequent, and increase the mortality of the sparse \r\ntree cover (Horn and St. Clair, 2017; Klinger and Brooks, 2017; Syphard \r\net al., 2017; Moloney et al., 2019; Sweet et al., 2019)."


id: bf30cd4666101e26b0a29d4b6eb4fe0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 27632
content:
"In Australia, climate change under RCP8.5 increases the risk of \r\npyro-convective fire by 20-40 days in rangelands of Western Australia, \r\nSouth Australia and the Northern Territory (Dowdy et  al., 2019). \r\nPyro-convective fire conditions could reach more frequently into the \r\nmore populated areas of New South Wales, particularly at the start \r\nof the austral summer (Di Virgilio et al., 2019). GCMs do not agree, \r\nhowever, on the areas of projected fire increase in New South Wales \r\n(Clarke and Evans, 2019). Increases in heat and potential increases in \r\nwildfire threaten the existence of temperature montane rainforest in \r\nTasmania, Australia (Mariani et al., 2019)."


id: 8736172591c54121896bb3b70aa4636c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 18806
content:
"Under continued climate change, increased temperature, aridity, \r\ndrought, wildfire (Section  2.5.3.2) and insect infestations \r\n(Section  2.4.4.3.3) will tend to increase tree mortality across many \r\nparts of the world (McDowell et al., 2020). Loss of boreal and temperate \r\nforest to fire, wind and bark beetles could cause more negative than \r\npositive effects for most ecosystem services, including carbon storage \r\nto regulate climate change (Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.4), \r\nwater supply for people (Section  2.5.3.6.1), timber production and \r\nother forest products (Chapter 5) and protection from hazards (Thom \r\nand Seidl, 2016). In addition, deforestation in tropical and temperate \r\nforests can increase local temperatures by 0.3degC-2degC (Hesslerova \r\net al., 2018; Lejeune et al., 2018; Zeppetello et al., 2020) and this effect \r\ncan extend up to 50 km (Cohn et al., 2019)."


id: 7d7ccff922790816ca9e8003e5137789
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 17314
content:
"In Mediterranean Europe, climate change of 3degC of warming could \r\ndouble or triple the burned area whereas keeping the temperature \r\nincrease to 1.5degC could limit the increase in burned area to 40-50% \r\n(Turco et al., 2018). Under RCP8.5, the frequency of heat-induced fire \r\nweather could increase by 30% (Ruffault et  al., 2020). Severe fire \r\nfollowed by drought could cause biome shifts of forest to non-forest \r\n(Batllori et al., 2019) and tree mortality >50% (Dupire et al., 2019)."


id: f1e16b9085733818e66faa4c221b3063
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 35573
content:
"In the Arctic tundra, boreal forests and northern peatlands, \r\nincluding permafrost areas, climate change under the scenario of \r\na 4degC temperature increase could triple the burned area in Canada \r\n(Boulanger et al., 2014), double the number of fires in Finland (Lehtonen \r\net al., 2016), increase the lightning-driven burned area by 30-250% \r\n(Veraverbeke et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2021a), push half of the area \r\nof tundra and boreal forest in Alaska above the burning threshold \r\ntemperature and double the burned area in Alaska (Young et  al., \r\n2017a). Thawing of Arctic permafrost due to a projected temperature \r\nof 4degC and the resultant wildfires could release 11-200 GtC which \r\ncould substantially exacerbate climate change (Section 2.5.2.9)."


id: b943965823a12d9e127fbc888d191478
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"In the USA, climate change under RCP8.5 could increase the burned \r\narea by 60-80% by 2049 (Buotte et al., 2019) and the number of fires \r\nwith an area >50 km2\r\n by 300-400% by 2070 (Barbero et al., 2015). \r\nIn montane forests, climate change under RCP8.5 increases the risk \r\nof fire-facilitated conversion of ~7% of forest to non-forest by 2050 \r\n(Parks et al., 2019). In California, climate change under a scenario of \r\na 4degC temperature increase could double fire frequency in some areas \r\n(Mann et al., 2016), but emission reductions that limit the temperature \r\nincrease to ~2degC could keep this from increasing (Westerling et al., \r\n2011). Carbon dioxide fertilisation and increased temperature under "


id: 38e592d0e171678875ebae8b5d33da6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"system feedback (Wang et al., 2020c). Peatlands, permafrost regions \r\nand tropical ecosystems are particularly vulnerable due to their \r\nlarge carbon stocks, in combination with over-proportional warming, \r\nincreases in heat waves and droughts and/or a complex interplay of \r\nclimate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 (Sections  2.5.2.8, \r\n2.5.2.9, 2.5.3.2)."


id: e3190ca92e20d174b909a95133c32bc2
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content:
"reducing tropical forest areas in Africa and South America by up to \r\nhalf under a 4degC increase above the pre-industrial period, but a lower \r\nprojection of a 2degC increase could limit the projected increases in tree \r\nmortality (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 8e222beef29afd770858ccc1385f84ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19894
content:
"For tropical and subtropical regions, the interplay of atmospheric CO2\r\nwith precipitation and temperature becomes of particular importance \r\nfor future carbon uptake, since in warm and dry environments, elevated \r\nCO2 fosters plants with C3 photosynthesis and enhances their water-use \r\nefficiency relative to C4 species (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Midgley and "


id: 9bb3b49979c6bbb7bc8e53d934c29d80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Enhanced carbon losses from terrestrial systems further limit the \r\navailable carbon budget for global warming staying below 1.5degC (Rogelj \r\net al., 2018). Analyses of satellite remote sensing and ground-based \r\nobservations have indicated that, between 1982 and 2015, the CO2\r\nfertilisation effect has already declined, implying a negative climate "


id: b0f1cbd3a562b04699748e059294f688
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25349
content:
"The lack of simulation studies that seek to quantify all important \r\ninteracting factors (CO2, drought and fire) for future carbon cycling in \r\nsavannas and tropical forests and the apparent disagreement between \r\ntrends projected in models compared to data-driven estimates result \r\nin low confidence regarding the direction or magnitude of carbon flux \r\nand pool-size changes. Similar to tropical peatlands, given projected \r\nhuman population growth and socioeconomic changes, the continued \r\nconversion of forests and savannas into agricultural or pasture systems \r\nvery likely poses a significant risk of rapid carbon loss which will amplify \r\nthe climate change-induced risks substantially (high confidence) \r\n(2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.5) (Aragao et al., 2014; Searchinger et al., 2015; Aleman \r\net al., 2016; Nobre et al., 2016)."


id: 577c707d3cdcf748d8f769c4b9881b85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 11260
content:
"The impacts of climate-induced altered animal composition and \r\ntrophic cascades on land-ecosystem carbon cycling globally are as \r\nyet unquantified (Schmitz et al., 2018), even though climate change "


id: b241efb0b137e0eb84a5ca3c69c163fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25554
content:
"Table 2.4 |  Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem feedbacks which affect the Earth's climate system dynamics, according to (Pravalie, 2018)."


id: 3a732692744f78b5c9e63fcf75be63dc
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vector_id: 6561
content:
"are poorly constrained by observational evidence and incompletely \r\ncaptured in ESMs (Section 2.5.2.10) (Huntzinger et al., 2017; Canadell \r\net al., 2021).\r\ndirec\r\nchan\r\nfeed"


id: 9b833e95f7c9e959dce4ecb6594597ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22020
content:
"Land ecosystems contribute substantially to global emissions of \r\nnitrous oxide and methane. As with CO2, these emissions respond both "


id: 2b66531df7daf1d077799f1ccfedd6d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4265
content:
"has been estimated to stem from natural ecosystems, especially in \r\nthe Tropics (Tian et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021), while freshwater \r\nwetlands and peatlands are estimated to contribute between 83% \r\n(top-down estimates) and 40% (bottom-up estimates) of total natural \r\nCH4 (and 31 and 20% of total methane emissions, respectively) for \r\nthe period 2008-2017 (Canadell et al., 2021). Median CH4 emissions \r\nfrom northern-latitude wetlands in 2100 were estimated to be 12.1 \r\nand 13.5 PgC in emission scenarios leading to 1.5degC and 2degC warming, \r\nrespectively (Comyn-Platt et al., 2018). Likewise, global warming has \r\nbeen attributed to soil N2O emission increases since the pre-industrial \r\nperiod of 0.8 (0.3-1.3) TgN yr-1 (Tian et  al., 2020). Overall, climate \r\nfeedbacks from future altered land ecosystem emissions of CH4 or N2O \r\nare uncertain, but are expected to be small (Canadell et al., 2021)."


id: 24daaac75ae5e1adf8df6fdd8b2dd797
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3242
content:
"atmosphere feedbacks that arise from changes in vegetation cover and \r\nsubsequently altered albedo, evapotranspiration or roughness (often \r\nsummarised as biophysical feedbacks) can be regionally relevant and \r\ncould amplify or dampen vegetation cover changes (Jia et al., 2019)."


id: 79bfbf2e1099a9e211f65c3dc30f75c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 16724
content:
"Changes in regional biodiversity are integral parts of ecosystem-cli\u0002mate feedback loops, including and beyond carbon cycle processes \r\n(Figure 2.10; Table 2.4). For instance, the impacts of climate-induced \r\naltered animal composition and trophic cascades on ecosystem carbon \r\nturnover (see Sections 2.4.4.4, 2.5.3.4) could be a substantive contribu\u0002tion to carbon-climate feedbacks (low confidence). Additional surface-"


id: 1f95ea66b5a63eac89e1f48f4b388b8a
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vector_id: 2401
content:
"N2O account for 75, 23 and 2% of the total CO2-equivalent emissions, \r\nrespectively, in lakes (DelSontro et al., 2018)."


id: 7c9c921ee3fbc1ed477b2407e609459e
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vector_id: 17203
content:
"precipitation (Section 2.5.2.6) (Jia et al., 2019). In savannas, restoration \r\nof woody vegetation has been shown to enhance cloud formation and \r\nprecipitation in response to enhanced transpiration and turbulent \r\nmixing, leading to a positive feedback on woody cover (Syktus and \r\nMcAlpine, 2016). While this has not yet been systematically explored, \r\nsimilar feedbacks might also emerge from a CO2-induced woody cover \r\nincrease in savannas (low confidence) (Section 2.5.2.5)."


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content:
"Furthermore, the exposure of lake and river sediments during droughts \r\nactivates the decomposition of buried organic carbon. In dry river \r\nbeds, mineralisation of buried organic matter is likely to increase with \r\nclimate change as anoxic sediments are oxygenated downwards during \r\ndrying, along with pulses of microbial activity following re-wetting \r\nof desiccated sediment. Conservative estimates indicate that adding \r\nemissions from exposed sediments of dry inland waters across diverse \r\necosystem types and climate zones to current global estimates of CO2\r\nemissions could result in a 6% (~0.12 PgC yr-1) increase of total inland \r\nwater CO2 emission rates covering streams and rivers (334 mmol m-2\r\nday-1), lakes and reservoirs (320 mmol m-2 day-1) and small ponds \r\n(148 mmol m-2 day-1) (Marce et al., 2019; Keller et al., 2020)."


id: 1232b33cd519bd3bf61f7b952dddddcd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 367
content:
"Since biophysical feedbacks can contribute to both surface temperature \r\nwarming or cooling, analyses so far suggest that, on a global scale, the \r\nnet impact on climate change is small (Perugini et al., 2017; Jia et al., \r\n2019), unless these feedbacks also accelerate vegetation mortality and \r\nlead to substantive carbon losses (Zemp et al., 2017a; Lemordant and \r\nGentine, 2019). More than one-third of the Earth's land surface has \r\nat least 50% of its evapotranspiration regulated by vegetation, and in \r\nsome regions between 40 and >80% of the land's evaporated water is \r\nreturned to land as precipitation. Locally, both directly human-mediated \r\nand climate change-mediated changes in vegetation cover can \r\ntherefore notably affect annual average freshwater availability to \r\nhuman societies, especially if negative feedbacks amplify the reduction \r\nof vegetation cover, evapotranspiration and precipitation (medium \r\nconfidence) (Keys et al., 2016; Keys and Wang-Erlandsson, 2018)."


id: 2584d880387dd55327233fa934a8ff77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 3328
content:
"Since AR5, freshwater ecosystems (lakes, reservoirs, rivers and ponds) \r\nhave been increasingly recognised as important sources of GHG \r\nemissions (CO2, CH4 and N2O) into the atmosphere. Key mechanisms \r\nwhich contribute to rising GHG emissions from freshwater ecosystems \r\nare the temperature imbalance between photosynthesis and \r\nrespiration (respiration increases more than photosynthesis with rising \r\ntemperature), CO2 and CH4 emissions from exposed sediments during \r\ndroughts, increased transport of matter from land to water, changes in \r\nwater retention time in rivers and lakes and the effects of temperature \r\non lake stratification and anoxia that favour CH4 emissions."


id: ce888ec0d5dc5def67c04270bbab4194
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 30032
content:
"DelSontro et al. (2018) assembled the largest global data set to date \r\non emission rates from lakes of CO2, CH4 and N2O and found that \r\nthey co-vary with lake size and trophic state. They estimated that \r\nmoderate global increases in eutrophication of lakes could translate to \r\n5-40% increases in the GHG effect in the atmosphere. Moreover, they \r\nestimated that GHG emissions from lakes and impoundments in past \r\ndecades accounted for 1.25-2.30 PgCO2 yr-1 (DelSontro et al., 2018), \r\nthus around 20% of global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil \r\nfuels (9.4 PgCO2 yr-1) (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 497458b460c1680ad0ddf5f2cb998d70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8945
content:
"Global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH4 emissions through \r\na disproportionate increase in ebullition (gas flux) by 6-20% per 1degC \r\nincrease in water temperature (Aben et al., 2017). It can be expected that \r\nongoing eutrophication enhanced by climate change-related increases \r\nin the release of sediment nutrients and the loading of organic carbon \r\nand nutrients from catchments will enhance CH4 ebullition on a global \r\nscale (Aben et al., 2017; DelSontro et al., 2018; Bartosiewicz et al., 2019; \r\nBeaulieu et al., 2019; Sanches et al., 2019). The strongest increase in \r\nebullition is expected in shallow waters where sediment temperatures \r\nare strongly related to atmospheric temperature (Aben et  al., 2017). \r\nGiven that small ponds and shallow lakes are the most abundant \r\nfreshwater ecosystems globally, these may become hot spots of CH4 \r\nebullition in the future (Aben et al., 2017). On average, CH4, CO2 and "


id: 7ab39925a109ec58567148037bdcd0f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16883
content:
"AR5 named water supply and biodiversity as freshwater ecosystem \r\nservices vulnerable to climate change. We discuss the risks to these "


id: 12d0a5f45fa8639eac656e0ae389ac4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 462
content:
"of a 3.5degC temperature increase could reduce drinking water supplies \r\nby half by 2100 (Bangash et al., 2013)."


id: 24394090cc606c8d4436fa19d62e8313
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3149
content:
"and to additional services identified by model projections based \r\nboth on climate-change scenarios (Schroter et  al., 2005; Boithias \r\net al., 2014; Huang et al., 2019; Jorda-Capdevila et al., 2019) and on \r\nthe Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (high \r\nconfidence) (CICES, 2018). The effects of floods, droughts, permafrost \r\nand glacier-melting on global changes in water quality, particularly with \r\nrespect to contamination with pollutants, are described in Section 4.2.6."


id: ccb2cda6aa50f9e997ea2d4ac5376094
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29745
content:
"Changes in algal biomass development and the spread of cyanobacteria \r\nblooms, related to global warming, resemble those triggered by \r\neutrophication with the well-known negative effects on the services \r\nlakes provide, particularly for drinking water provision and recreation \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement, high confidence) (Carvalho et al., \r\n2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Gozlan et al., 2019)."


id: c9c4d856a1528b960e4f431101d0ea37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29304
content:
"Forests and other vegetated ecosystems assist the production of \r\ndrinkable water by facilitating the infiltration of rainfall and snowfall \r\ninto the ground, where water either moves through the saturated soil \r\nzone to supply streams and other surface waters or infiltrates further \r\nto recharge groundwater aquifers (Ellison et  al., 2012; Bonnesoeur \r\net al., 2019). Globally, 4 billion people depend on forested watersheds \r\nfor drinking water (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Chapter 4 assesses \r\nthe physical science of water supply, including precipitation, runoff \r\nand hydrology as well as the social aspects of human water use. This \r\nsection assesses the ecological aspects of risks to freshwater supplies \r\nfor people."


id: c83b3713ebefc31b5790be82032386a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29079
content:
"In summary, climate change increases risks to the integrity of \r\nwatersheds and the provision of safe, acceptable freshwater to people \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: fe833e50d60b9fb6ab4ec6286402cefe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37582
content:
"Climate change will increase water temperatures and decrease \r\ndissolved oxygen levels (Section 2.3.1), impacting freshwater fisheries \r\nwhich form an important ecosystem service (Vari et al., 2022). People \r\nliving in the vicinity of cold lakes will be affected by projected losses \r\nof ice. In a worst-case scenario (an air temperatures increase of 8degC), \r\n230,400 lakes and 656 million people in 50 countries will be impacted \r\n(Reid et al., 2019; Sharma et al., 2019). Winter ice-fishing (Orru et al., \r\n2014), transportation via ice roads (Prowse et al., 2011) and cultural \r\nactivities (Magnuson and Lathrop, 2014) are ecosystem services at \r\nstake from the ongoing loss of lake ice."


id: 634ab2f33fa294a2ec765df1f4624f4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13193
content:
"Eutrophication of central European lakes has wiped out a significant \r\nproportion of the endemic fish fauna (Vonlanthen et  al., 2012), so \r\nclimate-induced further eutrophication is expected to represent an \r\nadditional threat to fish fauna and commercial fisheries (Ficke et al., \r\n2007). Given that the ecological consequences of lake warming may \r\nbe especially strong in the Tropics (Section 2.3.1.1), ecosystem services \r\nmay be most affected there. Tropical lakes support important fisheries \r\n(Lynch et al., 2016a; McIntyre et al., 2016) that provide a critical source \r\nof nutrition to adjacent human populations. These lakes are especially \r\nprone to the loss of deep-water oxygen due to warming, with adverse \r\nconsequences for the productivity of fisheries and for biodiversity \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement) (Lewis Jr, 2000; Van Bocxlaer \r\net al., 2012)."


id: 1c7020513c3875bc55427ff61ad10a1d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1932
content:
"Net effects of deforestation and afforestation on runoff and water \r\nsupply depend on local factors, leading to conflicting evidence of \r\neffects of land cover change (Ellison et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2021b), \r\nbut combinations of climate change and deforestation are projected \r\nto reduce water flows (Olivares et al., 2019). In southern Thailand, the \r\ncombination of the conversion of forest to rubber plantations and a \r\none-third increase in rainfall could increase erosion and sediment load \r\nby 15% (Trisurat et al., 2016). In the watershed that supplies Sao Paulo, \r\nBrazil, afforestation could increase water quantity and quality (Ferreira \r\net al., 2019). In most regions with dry or Mediterranean subtropical \r\nclimates, projected climate change can reduce surface water and \r\ngroundwater resources (Doell et al., 2015). In northeast Spain, reduced \r\nprecipitation and vegetation cover under the high-emissions scenario "


id: 9b2ecd17d82b11092bde85f89a29bc2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21957
content:
"measures of risk are interconnected, but approach the assessment of \r\nthe risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosytems from different angles, \r\nusing complementary metrics."


id: b4ab61a40fcf710e8f5e059e239a85a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 25955
content:
"Tropical lakes tend to be hotspots of freshwater biodiversity (Vadebon\u0002coeur et al., 2011; Brawand et al., 2014; Sterner et al., 2020); ancient \r\ntropical lakes such as Malawi, Tanganyika, Victoria, Titicaca, Towuti \r\nand Matano hold thousands of animal species found nowhere else \r\n(Vadeboncoeur et al., 2011). While biodiversity and several ecosystem \r\nservices can be considered synergistic (food webs, tourism and of aes\u0002thetic and spiritual value) (Langhans et al., 2019), others can be con\u0002sidered antagonistic in case of a strong ecosystem service demand \r\n(such as water abstraction, water use and food security in terms of \r\noverexploitation). Here, the balance between biodiversity and eco\u0002system services is key (Langhans et al., 2019), where biodiversity can \r\nbe integrated into water policy by means of integrated water resource \r\nmanagement (IWRM) towards NbS (Ligtvoet et al., 2017)"


id: 229baf4ec174fa433427b58eafc449c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2899
content:
"Global rates of species extinction are accelerating dramatically \r\n(Barnosky et  al., 2011), with approximately 10% of species having \r\nbeen driven extinct by humans since the late Pleistocene, principally \r\nby overexploitation and habitat destruction, a rate estimated to be \r\n1000  times higher than pre-Anthropocene (natural) background \r\nextinction rates (De Vos et al., 2015). Therefore, this level--10%--of \r\nspecies becoming \"endangered\" (sensu IUCN),and therefore at high\r\nrisk of extinction, due to the loss of suitable climate space (Figure 2.8b), \r\nis used here as a threshold, moving the risk to biodiversity from \r\nmoderate to high, and twice that (20%) as the threshold from high\r\nto very high."


id: a7c3bedc3f830367ad712abe9c1b39b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23907
content:
"Very high = Very high probability of severe impacts or risks and \r\nthe presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of \r\nclimate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt; \r\nHigh = Significant and widespread impacts or risks; \r\nModerate = Impacts or risks are detectable and attributable to\r\nclimate change with at least medium confidence; \r\nUndetectable = Impacts or risks are undetectable. "


id: 78905ac01489cd2221fb53380fa035ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16530
content:
"Human health and well-being are highly dependent on the 'health' of nature. Nature provides material and economic services that are \r\nessential for human health and productive livelihoods. Studies also show that being in 'direct contact with natural environments' has direct \r\npositive effects on well-being, health and socio-cognitive abilities. Therefore, the loss of species and biodiversity due to climate change will \r\nreduce natural spaces and, in turn, decrease human well-being and health worldwide."


id: 7b6ea636836847f700638ef169727def
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17011
content:
"Figure FAQ2.4.1 |  The positive relationship between human health and well-being and nature conservation. Nature provides essential services \r\nto humans including material and economic services (i.e., ecosystem services) as well as cultural, experiential and recreational services, which, in turn, enhance \r\nhuman psychological and physical health and well-being. People who are more connected to nature are not only happier and healthier but are also more likely \r\nto engage in pro-nature behaviours, making the enhancement of human-nature connectedness worldwide a valuable win-win solution for humans and nature \r\nto face environmental challenges."


id: 752b10dff0e1a5f7e575ac0808d88504
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16031
content:
"The number of species that can be lost before negative impacts occur is not known and is likely to differ in different \r\nsystems. However, in general, more diverse systems are more resilient to disturbances and able to recover from \r\nextreme events more quickly. Biodiversity loss means there are fewer connections within an ecosystem. A simpler \r\nfood web with fewer interactions means less redundancy in the system, reducing the stability and ability of plants \r\nand animal communities to recover from disturbances and extreme weather events such as floods and drought."


id: 554e8d9b2575272bb8360df3f25ca435
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 10891
content:
"In addition to 'material' and economic services such as eco-tourism, nature also provides cultural services such as \r\nrecreation, spirituality and well-being. Specifically, being in 'direct contact with natural environments' (vs. an urban \r\nenvironment) has a high positive impact on human well-being (e.g., mood, happiness), psychological and physical \r\nhealth (energy, vitality, heart rate, depression) and socio-cognitive abilities (attention, memory, hyperactivity, \r\naltruism, cooperation). Therefore, the loss of species from climate change and urbanisation will reduce natural \r\nspaces, decrease biodiversity, and, in turn, decrease human well-being and health worldwide."


id: 95d6f35ff2a6fd970ddcbb38fca01c21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 21074
content:
"Finally, the extent to which humans consider themselves part of the natural world--known as human-nature \r\nconnectedness--has been demonstrated to be closely associated with human health and well-being. Individuals \r\nwho are more connected to nature are not only happier and healthier but also tend to engage more in pro-nature \r\nbehaviours, making the enhancement of human-nature connectedness worldwide a valuable win-win solution for \r\nhumans and nature to face environmental challenges."


id: 939fe4ec97e872745c262613865fe18c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 20739
content:
"Adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and their services \r\nto climate change has been addressed in previous IPCC reports, \r\nwith AR4 and AR5 recognising both autonomous adaptation and \r\nhuman-assisted adaptation to protect natural species and ecosystems. \r\nIn AR5, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), adaptation for people, \r\nbased on the better protection, restoration and management of the \r\nnatural environment, was identified as an area of emerging opportunity, \r\nwith a dedicated Cross-Chapter Box on the topic. In the SRCCL, \r\nconservation, EbA and related concepts were integrated throughout; \r\nSR1.5 also noted the role of EbA. Since the last assessment report, the \r\nscientific literature has expanded considerably, with growing interest \r\nin the concept of Nature-based Solutions (NbS). This section assesses \r\nthis new literature and its implications for the implementation of \r\nclimate change adaptation."


id: e6fd24c06e678698fbf46e99645c7345
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content:
"It is worth briefly considering some key concepts that are relevant to \r\nadaptation in ecosystems. Adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems \r\ncan encompass both managing change and building resilience. We use \r\nthe definition of 'resilience' set out Chapter 1: 'the capacity of social, \r\neconomic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or \r\ntrend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain \r\ntheir essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining \r\nthe capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation'. This includes \r\nthe concept of 'resistance', which is used in some ecological literature \r\nto distinguish systems which are resistant to change from those that \r\nrecover quickly from change. We consider both interventions designed \r\nprimarily to protect biodiversity and those intended to reduce the risks \r\nof climate change to people."


id: 3843d4b70137de71593c473dfa6ad3a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Previous sections of this chapter have set out the vulnerability of \r\nnatural and semi-natural ecosystems to climate change, and the risks \r\nthis poses to both biodiversity and ecosystem services (also sometimes \r\ndescribed as 'Nature's Contributions to People'). Natural systems \r\nrespond to climatic and other environmental changes in a variety of \r\nways. Individual organisms can respond through growth, movement \r\nand developmental processes. Species and populations genetically \r\nadapt to changing conditions and evolve over successive generations. \r\nGeomorphological features, such as the path of watercourses, can also \r\nchange naturally in response to climate change. However, there is a \r\nlimit to which these natural processes can maintain biodiversity and \r\nthe benefits people derive from nature, partly due to intrinsic limits, \r\nbut also because of the pressures that people exert on the natural \r\nenvironment."


id: cfa856f495b086e0df907e8fc92e44a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"A variety of terms are used to describe using environmental management \r\nto reduce the impacts of climate change on people in ways that also \r\nbenefit biodiversity in the scientific literature, particularly EbA and NbS \r\n(see also Section 1.4). EbA is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem "


id: bf1d280d7afdf40d7a2ac0723ba8a2a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 27621
content:
"Whilst we distinguish between adaptation for biodiversity and EbA, it \r\nis important to recognise that the two are linked in that, if ecosystems \r\nthemselves are not resilient to climate change, they will not be able \r\nto provide adaptation benefits for people. The case for resourcing \r\nbiodiversity conservation and building the resilience of ecosystems is \r\nalso strengthened when there are direct benefits for people in addition \r\nto the more general benefits of biodiversity."


id: 34266c7f0be18a7f3c3b6c260425840b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Ecosystems are specifically included in the adaptation goals set out in \r\nthe Paris Agreement and are addressed in most national adaptation \r\nplans (Seddon et  al., 2020b). There are also now a large number \r\nof adaptation programmes and plans for local governments and \r\ngovernmental and non-governmental conservation organisations. \r\nAdaptation for and by ecosystems needs to be understood and \r\ndeveloped in the wider contexts of conservation, climate resilient \r\ndevelopment and sustainable development. There are significant \r\npotential synergies but also conflicts between different objectives \r\nwhich require an integrated approach (covered further in 2.6.7)."


id: f6a4fe80ef463b8106026b920d3cc639
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Natural ecosystems often have a high degree of resilience and can, to \r\nsome extent, adjust to change. Species can adjust through evolutionary \r\nadaptation, distribution change, behavioural change, developmental \r\nplasticity and ecophysiological adjustment. There are, however, limits \r\nto autonomous adaptation, because of intrinsic limitations, the rate \r\nat which the climate is changing and the degraded state of many \r\necosystems."


id: 9c8387516ed1d81e46e40d5a5b09023e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22175
content:
"larger areas of semi-natural habitat are associated with increased \r\nresilience to ongoing climate change and extreme events as well as \r\nthe capacity to colonise new areas (Haslem et al., 2015; Oliver et al., \r\n2017; Papanikolaou et al., 2017). Larger habitat patches can support \r\nlarger populations of a given species, which are more likely to maintain \r\nthemselves and recover from periods of adverse conditions. Inhabiting \r\na large patch size has been found to increase the resilience of some \r\npopulations of species to extreme events such as droughts (Oliver \r\net al., 2015b). They are also more likely to provide a range of different \r\nresources and microclimate conditions, which may increase the \r\nchances of the persistence of species under climate change. A larger \r\narea of habitat may also enable greater connectivity between patches \r\nand increase the chances of species colonising new areas as they track \r\nclimate change (Oliver et al., 2015b)."


id: 6801eaa42aba6ba3eae20bc40bc9e3e2
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vector_id: 13951
content:
"losses (including some with potentially catastrophic consequences) \r\ncannot be prevented; this is discussed further in Section 2.6.6."


id: 8a6d82d6b0c39cc4efb11723a81cedbc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19313
content:
"To date, most scientific literature on adaptation to reduce the risks to \r\nbiodiversity from climate change has been based on ecological theory \r\nrather than on observations or practical experience. A recent review \r\n(Prober et al., 2019) concluded that out of 473 papers on adaptation, \r\nonly 16% presented new empirical evidence and very few assessed \r\nthe effectiveness of actual adaptation actions. It is also the case \r\nthat relatively little research is focused on local-scale management \r\ninterventions rather than on larger-scale strategies (Ledee et al., 2021), \r\nalthough there are some exceptions (Duffield et al., 2021)."


id: d7546201188320234b2fc9a57254e15e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31394
content:
"Many climate adaptation actions for biodiversity operate on the \r\nlandscape scale (von Holle et  al., 2020). The total area of habitat, \r\nhow fragmented it is, the size of habitat patches and the connectivity \r\nbetween them are inter-linked properties on this scale. A growing \r\nnumber of studies have investigated how these properties affect \r\nspecies ability to persist in situ and colonise new areas. Overall, "


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Table 2.6 |  Evidence to support proposed climate change adaptation measures for biodiversity. The evidence highlights that adaptation for biodiversity conservation is a broad \r\nconcept, encompassing a wide range of actions. It includes targeted interventions to change the microclimate for particular species (e.g., by creating shade) to changing national \r\nconservation objectives to take account of changing distributions of species and communities. It includes targeted actions addressing both climate change and the protection and \r\nrestoration of ecosystems, with multiple additional benefits including reduced vulnerability to climate change. Most of the studies are not direct tests of the impacts of adaptation \r\nactions which, as noted above, is an important gap in the evidence. There is also a major limitation in that reported studies are predominantly from Europe, North America and \r\nAustralasia, with little research in other regions."


id: 9cc518ccb94ffb538e1613d9dc9f6329
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"wetland area and ecological integrity, especially during dry years \r\n(Cartwright et al., 2020). Measures to conserve drought refugia may \r\ninclude protecting springs and other groundwater-fed systems from \r\ngroundwater extraction, contamination, salinisation, surface-water \r\ndiversion, channelisation of streams, trampling by livestock, recreation \r\nactivities and invasive species and the effects of disturbances in the \r\nsurrounding landscape (Cartwright et al., 2020; Krawchuk et al., 2020). \r\nRestoration of degraded aquatic ecosystems can include removing \r\nflow-diversion infrastructure, excluding livestock, reducing other \r\nhuman impacts, geomorphic restructuring, removing invasive species \r\nand planting native riparian vegetation."


id: 396e1375d0025cb318803b2c24592989
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"In fire-prone areas, fire suppression and management are a key element \r\nof protecting refugia (Section 2.6.5.8 below). In ecosystems in which \r\na natural fire regime has been suppressed, restoration practices such \r\nas prescribed fires, thinning trees and allowing some wildfire where it \r\nbenefits the ecosystem can be introduced to reduce increasing risks \r\nfrom severe wildfires (Meigs et al., 2020)."


id: 301fdaa869fd758d9fc83561e9af9925
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Managed translocation, that is, moving species from areas where the \r\nclimate is becoming unsuitable to places where their persistence under \r\nclimate change is more likely, has been discussed as an adaptation \r\noption for many years. So far, there have been very few examples of \r\nthis and it is likely to be a last resort in most cases, as it usually requires \r\na large investment of resources, outcomes are uncertain and there may \r\nbe adverse impacts on the receiving sites. Nevertheless, there are cases \r\nwhere it may be a be a viable option (Stralberg et al., 2019). This is \r\ndiscussed in more detail as a case study in Section 2.6.5.1."


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"Refugia often refer to locally cool places in a landscape, such as \r\nshaded slopes or high elevations, but they can also include places \r\nwhere the supply of water may continue during dry periods (Morelli \r\net al., 2016). Monitoring can reveal which streams, wetlands, springs \r\nand other aquatic resources retain suitable discharges, water quality, "


id: 7367bce3046df4f27846ed260f24d4a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"A study published in 2020 found that, out of 162 intended nationally \r\ndetermined contributions (covering 189  countries) submitted to the \r\nUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), \r\nas commitments to action under the Paris Agreement, 109 indicated \r\n'ecosystem-orientated visions' for adaptation, but only 23 used the \r\nterm 'ecosystem-based adaptation' (Seddon et al., 2020b)."


id: f9b5dfd3cad3335cfd1b35f2b3989afa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Table 2.7 |  Examples of key EbA measures with assessments of confidence. Note only adaptation-related services are shown; many measures also provide a range of other benefits \r\nto people. All also provide benefits for biodiversity."


id: bd8c3a017aa2068db66c35de8d074eaf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Protecting and restoring natural river systems and natural vegetation \r\ncover within catchments as well as integrating agro-ecological \r\ntechniques into agricultural systems can also help to maintain \r\nand manage water supplies for human use, under climate change, \r\nincluding during periods of drought, by storing water in catchments \r\nand improving water quality (Taffarello et al., 2018; Agol et al., 2021; \r\nKhaniya et  al., 2021). Lara et  al. (2021) showed that replacing a \r\nnon-native Eucalyptus plantation in Chile with native forest caused \r\nbase flow to increase by 28-87% during the restoration period \r\ncompared to pre-treatment, and found that it remained during periods \r\nwith low summer precipitation."


id: 4f75cd0448583c968f15fd91ae06f36b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Whilst it is essential to develop place-specific EbA measures with the \r\nfull engagement of local communities, it is worth noting that new \r\nopportunities may emerge that would not have been possible in the \r\npast. As the climate changes, novel ecosystems may emerge (with no \r\npresent day analogue) which have the potential to provide different \r\nadaptation benefits, and societies may be more willing to adopt \r\ntransformative approaches (Colloff et al., 2017; Lavorel et al., 2020)."


id: 4cd22bdaec3d55387003e2985835a960
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"Increasingly, it is essential to integrate adaptation and the protection \r\nof biodiversity with land-based initiatives to mitigate climate change; \r\nthis is discussed in more detail in Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in \r\nthis chapter. The new IUCN standard (IUCN, 2020) offers a basis for \r\nassessing whether actions are true NbS and take into account the \r\nwider factors necessary for success."


id: 64286058d3924e1d255e3c3a5bb8740e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Wildfire is an increasing risk for people as well as to ecosystems in many \r\nparts of the world. As discussed in Section 2.4.4.2, this is the result not \r\njust of climate change but also past management practices, including \r\nfire suppression. Better fire management including reinstating more \r\nnatural fire regimes can reduce risks."


id: 6ac8cbd422ce85f070c9755c20afba4c
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"EbA is usually a place-specific approach and a number of studies have \r\ndocumented how attempts to implement it without an understanding \r\nof local circumstances and the full engagement of local communities \r\nhave been unsuccessful (Nalau et al., 2018). Since AR5, a number of \r\nstudies have considered the factors that are important for environment \r\nadaptation programmes and projects (UNFCCC, 2015; Nalau et  al., \r\n2018; Duncan et al., 2020; EPA Network and ENCA, 2020; Townsend \r\net al., 2020). Considering these sources, others described above and \r\nthe case studies presented in Section 2.6.5, a number of requirements \r\nfor effective implementation of EbA can be identified, including the \r\nfollowing:"


id: 2e793d203838332ade82f923fbf258a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"2020; Colon-Gonzalez et  al., 2021; Petrova et  al., 2021). Improving \r\nVBD and NTD public health responses will require multi-disciplinary \r\nteams capable of interpreting, analysing, and synthesising diverse \r\ncomponents of complex ecosystem-based studies for effective \r\nintervention (Mills et  al., 2010; Rubin et  al., 2014; Valenzuela and \r\nAksoy, 2018), broad epidemiological and entomological surveillance \r\n(Depaquit et al., 2010; Lindgren et al., 2012; Springer et al., 2016) as \r\nwell as community-based disease control programmes that build local \r\ncapacity (Andersson et al., 2015; Jones et al., 2020b)."


id: 134b9adf85f3094dc7f9958a220cd5b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Online tools are being developed to warn conservation biologists \r\nwhen species of conservation concern are at a greater risk of disease \r\noutbreaks due to environmental changes, for example, for Hawaiian \r\nhoneycreepers and avian malaria (Berio Fortini et al., 2020) and coral \r\ndiseases (Caldwell et al., 2016). Forecasting models to warn of human \r\ndisease outbreaks like malaria and dengue are also now available, with \r\nfindings that multiple-model ensemble forecasts outperform individual \r\nmodels (Lowe et al., 2013; Lowe et al., 2014; Lowe et al., 2018; Zhai \r\net al., 2018; Johansson et al., 2019; Tompkins et al., 2019; Munoz et al., "


id: 5b138fb65148f7f35f384f3bddad9287
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Authors: Marie-Fanny Racault (UK/France, Chapter 3), Stavana E. Strutz (USA, Chapter 2), Camille Parmesan (France/UK/USA, Chapter 2), \r\nRita Adrian (Germany, Chapter 2), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/Switzerland/France, Chapter 7), Sarah Cooley (USA, Chapter 3), Meghnath \r\nDhimal (Nepal), Luis E. Escobar (Guatemala/USA), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia, Chapter 9), Nathalie Jeanne Marie Hilmi (Monaco/France, \r\nChapter 18), Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico, Chapter 5), Erin Mordecai (USA), Gretta Pecl (Australia, Chapter 11), A. Townsend Peterson \r\n(USA), Joacim Rocklov (Germany/Sweden), Marina Romanello (UK/Argentina/Italy), David Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Jan C. \r\nSemenza (Italy, Chapter 7), Maria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain, Chapter 7), Gautam Hirak Talukdar (India, Chapter 2), Yongyut Trisurat \r\n(Thailand, Chapter 2)"


id: 12091b1394d6d769bccbf3135f70e5b9
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"In aquatic systems, at least 30 human pathogens with water infection routes (freshwater and marine) are affected by climate change \r\n(Section 3.5.3, Table SM3.G) (Nichols et al., 2018) . Warming, acidification, hypoxia, SLR and increases in extreme weather and climate \r\nevents (e.g., MHWs, storm surges, flooding and drought), which are projected to intensify in the 21st century (high confidence) (IPCC, \r\n2021b), are driving species' geographic range shifts and global rearrangements in the location and extent of areas with suitable conditions \r\nfor many harmful pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, algae, protozoa and helminths (high confidence) (Sections 2.3, 2.4.2.7, 3.5.5.3) \r\n(Trtanj et al., 2016; Ebi et al., 2017; Manning and Nobles, 2017; Pecl et al., 2017; Mantzouki et al., 2018; Nichols et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., \r\n2019; IPCC, 2019b; Kubickova et al., 2019; Watts et al., 2019; Watts et al., 2020; Watts et al., 2021)."


id: 449fabe27f0eef818b08824b733f7091
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"The incidence of cholera and Vibrio-related disease outbreaks have been shown to originate primarily in coastal regions, and then spread \r\ninland via human transportation. Our understanding of the impacts of climate-change drivers on the dynamics of Vibrio pathogens and \r\nrelated infections has been strengthened through improved observations from long-term monitoring programmes (Vezzulli et al., 2016) \r\nand statistical modelling supported by large-scale and high-resolution satellite observations (high confidence) ((Baker-Austin et al., 2013; \r\nEscobar et al., 2015; Jutla et al., 2015; Martinez et al., 2017; Semenza et al., 2017; Racault et al., 2019; Campbell et al., 2020)."


id: 4e2cfe772b33bdae9cf261cdc6faf7f8
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"The coastal area suitable for V. cholerae (the causative agent for cholera) has increased by 9.9% globally compared to a 2000s baseline \r\n(Escobar et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2019). However, in the case of V. cholerae and cholera disease incidence, climate change is more difficult \r\nto implicate because outbreaks require independent drivers to coincide (i.e., introduction of pathogenic strains of V. cholerae in the waters \r\nvia mobility of human-infected populations) and observed trends are difficult to separate from concurrent directional trends in disease \r\ncontrol, sanitation and water access, socioeconomic and public health conditions."


id: a988024b7a47687b271dadf646c61a3f
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"In contrast to malaria, dengue has expanded globally since 1990, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia and sub\u0002Saharan Africa (Stanaway et al., 2016). While urbanisation, changes in vector control and human mobility play roles in this expansion (Gubler, \r\n2002; Astrom et al., 2012; Wesolowski et al., 2015), the physiological suitability of temperatures for dengue transmission is also expected to \r\nhave increased as climates have warmed (Colon-Gonzalez et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Mordecai et al., 2017; Rocklov and Tozan, \r\n2019). Models predict that dengue transmission risk will expand across many tropical, subtropical and seasonal temperate environments \r\nwith future warming (Astrom et al., 2012; Colon-Gonzalez et al., 2013; Ryan et al., 2019; Iwamura et al., 2020; Watts et al., 2021))."


id: 731b7f6846e6762247095f4c29c27355
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Figure Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.1 |  Adaptation measures to reduce risks of climate change impact on water- and vector-borne diseases. Impacts \r\nare identified at three levels: (1) on pathogen, host/vector distributions and abundance; (2) on pathogen-host transmission cycle occurrence and efficiency; and (3) on the \r\nlikelihood of transmission to humans. Adaptation typology is based on (Biagini et al., 2014; Pecl et al., 2019). For each type of adaptation, examples are provided with \r\ntheir level of evidence and agreement."


id: 6b27024f7dd8dde3a472f0f94bac36
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"extent to which there will be a need for more radical measures will \r\ndepend on the success of reducing GHG emissions globally. A global \r\nrise of 1.5degC-2degC would require relatively incremental adjustments to \r\nconservation management in many parts of the world, but a 3degC-4degC \r\nrise would require radical, transformational changes to preserve many \r\nspecies and maintain ecosystem services (Morecroft et al., 2012)."


id: 4527c4868302171081bdc5fb138c7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Adaptation plans for biodiversity and EbA have been adopted in many \r\nplaces and on different scales, but it is difficult to get a systematic \r\noverview of adaptation in practice. We have therefore reviewed a \r\nseries of contrasting case studies to illustrate some of the key issues. \r\nThere is a pressing need for more thorough monitoring and evaluation \r\nof adaptation to assess effectiveness. Climate change adaptation \r\nis conceptually difficult to measure, but it is possible to test which \r\ntechniques work in reducing vulnerability and to monitor their \r\ndeployment (Morecroft et al., 2019)."


id: 8badc7c70860c35400af148ba426c806
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"Whilst adaptation strategies for conservation are relatively common, \r\nat least on an outline level, their implementation is slow in most \r\nplaces. This may partly reflect a lack of resources for conservation \r\nin many parts of the world; however, another barrier is that people \r\noften value protected sites in their present form. Actions which might \r\njeopardise this are inevitably a last resort. Initiatives to engage wider \r\ncommunities in discussions are likely to be essential in gaining support \r\nfor such changing approaches."


id: c75948ce862a1ef2b04cfa435cb2edde
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"EbA and adaptation for biodiversity are intrinsically linked and the \r\nlargest-scale interventions for adaptation in ecosystems have tended \r\nto bring together both elements. For example, adaptation to reduce \r\nthe risk of flooding by habitat creation and using natural processes \r\n(Section  2.6.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in Chapter 3), such as \r\nre-naturalising straightened river systems or creating wetlands for \r\nwater storage, offers the potential to meet multiple objectives and has \r\nincreased the overall funding available for ecosystem restoration."


id: 26d771ff2a3ffc3f9d6428c2d11865e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Managed relocation (assisted migration and colonisation) is the \r\nmovement of species, populations or genotypes to places outside the \r\nareas of their historical distribution (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2008), \r\nand it may be an option where they are not able to disperse and \r\ncolonise naturally. It requires careful consideration of scientific, ethical, \r\neconomic and legal issues between the object of relocation and the \r\nreceiving ecosystem (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2008; Richardson et al., \r\n2009; Schwartz et al., 2012)."


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"Individual cases show that assisted migration can be successful. Anich \r\nand Ward (2017) extended the geographic breeding range of a rare \r\nbird, Kirtland's warbler, Setophaga kirtlandii, by 225 km by using \r\nsong playbacks to attract migrating individuals. Wadgymar (2015) \r\nsuccessfully transplanted an annual legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata, \r\nto sites beyond its current poleward range limit, while Liu (2012) found \r\nthat all but one of 20 orchid species survived when transplanted to \r\nhigher elevations than their current range limits. After introducing \r\ntwo British butterfly species to sites ~65 and ~35 km beyond their \r\npoleward range margins, Willis (2009) observed that both of these \r\npopulations grew, expanded their ranges and survived for at least the \r\n8 year span of the study."


id: bfd6f025716f0c8194e7123f0c59c80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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"Adaptation is widely recognised as important for national conservation \r\npolicies and is being considered in a variety of countries (Section 2.6.5.2, \r\n2.6.5.3). Adaptation in this strategic context includes decisions about \r\nthe selection and objectives for protected areas, for example, identifying \r\nplaces which can act as refugia. It can also mean recognising where \r\nprotected areas remain important but will support a changing range \r\nof species and ecosystems. This is important for directing resources \r\neffectively and ensuring that the management of the sites remains \r\nappropriate. There are, however, often major uncertainties, and the "


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"Butterflies have been favoured subjects for assisted migration in \r\nresponse to regional climate warming, since they are easy to move and \r\ntheir range dynamics have been extensively studied. The Chequered \r\nSkipper, Carterocephalus palaemon, became locally extinct in England "


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"collated the evidence base for NFM (Burgess-Gamble et al., 2021) and \r\nwas able to draw on 65 case studies (Ngai et al., 2017) covering the \r\nmanagement of rivers and floodplains, woodlands, runoff, and coasts \r\nand estuaries."


id: e534f927762cc832f2dab5f0a89a48d6
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"in the 1970s, in an area not close to either the species' poleward or \r\nequatorial range limits. Nonetheless, Maes (2019) considers climate a \r\ncrucial parameter for reintroduction, using SDMs for both choosing the \r\nsource population in Belgium and introduction site."


id: 70d07b205fa15641d5fb0d401c0ac9ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"NFM includes a broad range of techniques, some of which deliver \r\nreal benefits for biodiversity and allow natural ecological processes \r\nto become re-established. Others, such as creating 'woody debris \r\ndams'--barriers artificially constructed from tree trunks and branches \r\nin watercourses to slow the flow of water-- have fewer benefits, \r\nalthough they may be good for some species. Dadson et  al. (2017) \r\nconcluded that 'the hazard associated with small floods in small \r\ncatchments may be significantly reduced' by NFM techniques. However, \r\nthey noted that the most extreme flood events may overwhelm any \r\nrisk management measures, and failed to find clear evidence of NFM \r\nreducing flood risk downstream in large catchments."


id: eddc9b3f2b7d4d908d4210787ad5f927
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content:
"The success of assisted migration for conservation purposes has \r\nbeen variable. Bellis et  al. (2019) identified 56 successes and 33 \r\nfailures among 107 translocations of insects undertaken explicitly for \r\nconservation purposes. They concluded that failure was most strongly \r\nassociated with the low numbers of individuals being released. Another \r\npotential source of failure is local adaptation: there is good evidence\r\nthat adaptive differences among potential source populations can be \r\nimportant. For example, the transplants of Chamaecrista fasciculata\r\nwere more successful when sourced from the most poleward existing \r\nsites, while individuals from more equatorial habitats performed poorly \r\neven when artificially warmed (Wadgymar et al., 2015)."


id: 120ee3981c32c82b6e47f0783a03d2e
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content:
"Challenges in deploying large-scale NFM remain, which partly reflects \r\nthe length of time necessary to demonstrate the effectiveness of pilot \r\nstudies and build confidence; building stakeholder support is important \r\n(Huq et  al., 2017). There are now a number of examples of where \r\ncollaborative initiatives between local communities, landowners and \r\ngovernment agencies have been successful in establishing effective \r\nNFM schemes (Short et al., 2019)."


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"Many countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) \r\nare expanding protected area networks to meet the Aichi Target 11 of \r\nat least 17% of terrestrial area protected, and it is important to take \r\nthe effects of climate change into account. Existing protected areas in \r\nThailand cover approximately 21% of the land area and it is one of \r\nthe few tropical countries that has achieved the Aichi Target 11. Most \r\nprotected areas in Thailand were established on an ad hoc basis to \r\nprotect remaining forest cover and, as a result, they do not represent \r\ndiverse habitats and their associated species (Chutipong et al., 2014; \r\nTantipisanuh, 2016) so they may not be resilient to the interacting \r\nimpacts of future land use and climate change (Klorvuttimontara et al., \r\n2011; Trisurat, 2018)."


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"Duffield et al. (2021) found that awareness of the need for adaptation \r\nwas common amongst nature reserve managers and that they \r\nwere implementing actions that might build resilience to climate \r\nchange, such as restoring ecosystem processes and reducing habitat \r\nfragmentation. There was recognition that it will be necessary to \r\nchange the management objectives of protected sites to adjust to \r\nchanging circumstances, but little implementation of such changes. \r\nThe main example of managing change was at the coast where the \r\nSLR is causing transitions from terrestrial and freshwater systems to \r\ncoastal and marine ones."


id: 845605e37d4bb2ea21b1c9b7f2f3dea2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Recent research conducted in northern Thailand indicated that the \r\nexisting protected areas (31% of the regional area) cannot secure the \r\nviability of many medium-sized and large mammals. The climate space \r\nof most species will shift substantially, bringing a risk of extinction. \r\nResults, based on a spatial distribution model and network flow, \r\ndetermined there was a need for expansion areas of 5,200 km2\r\n in size, \r\nor 3% of the region, to substantially minimise the high level of risk \r\nand increase the average coping capacity of the protection of suitable \r\nhabitats from 82%--the current plan--to 90%. These results were \r\nadopted by Thailand's Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant \r\nConservation, and included in the National Wildlife Administration and \r\nConservation Plan for 2021-2031."


id: f61215037b70d6625a4c8e4f805f0870
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 36225
content:
"A range of EbA approaches are starting to contribute to adaptation in \r\nEngland, but the best-developed is Natural Flood Management (NFM): \r\nrestoring natural processes and natural habitats to reduce flood \r\nrisk (Wingfield et  al., 2019). Over the last decade, a series of NFM \r\nprojects have been established in local areas. The Environment Agency "


id: d161d30390ad55b1b5e0953217ae45b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 30475
content:
"The African penguin, Spheniscus demersus, is the only resident penguin \r\nspecies on mainland Africa. It breeds in a handful of colonies in South \r\nAfrica and Namibia. In 2017, the penguins of Cape Town's Boulders \r\nBeach colony attracted almost one million visitors, providing 885 jobs \r\nand USD 18.9 M in revenue (Van Zyl and Kinghorn, 2018). Ninety-six \r\npercent of the population of this species has been lost since 1900, with \r\na 77% decline in the last two decades (Sherley et al., 2018). By 2019, \r\nonly 17,700 pairs remained (Sherley et al., 2020). The species is listed \r\nas endangered on the IUCN Red List (Birdlife International, 2018) and \r\nif this trajectory persists, the African penguin will become functionally \r\nextinct in the near future (Sherley et al., 2018)."


id: 412599a0c6e80714eb6759ba90badaa4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"Historically, hunting and the collection of eggs and guano were the main \r\nthreats, but three aspects of climate change now predominate. Firstly, an \r\neastward shift of several hundred kilometres in the distributions of their \r\nmain prey species, anchovies and sardines, has reduced food availability \r\n(Roy et al., 2007; Crawford et al., 2011). While adult penguins typically \r\nforage up to 400 km from their colonies, they are restricted to a ~20-\r\nkm radius from their colonies during breeding months (Ludynia et al., \r\n2012; Pichegru et al., 2012). The resulting food shortage at this critical \r\ntime is compounded by competition with commercial fisheries and \r\nenvironmental fluctuations (Crawford et al., 2011; Pichegru et al., 2012; \r\nSherley et al., 2018). This has impacted adults' survival and their ability \r\nto raise high-quality offspring (Crawford et al., 2006; Crawford et al., \r\n2011; Sherley et al., 2013; Sherley et al., 2014)."


id: eef2ace0b3ffe6861e46c3d8d8c1df8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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content:
"The increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves recorded in recent \r\ndecades presents a second threat (van Wilgen and Wannenburgh, 2016; \r\nVan Wilgen et al., 2016; Mbokodo et al., 2020). Nests were historically \r\nbuilt in insulated guano burrows, but are now frequently sited on open \r\nground (Kemper et al., 2007; Pichegru et al., 2012; Sherley et al., 2012). \r\nHigh temperatures frequently expose the birds to severe heat stress, \r\ncausing adults to abandon their nests and resulting in the mortality \r\nof eggs and chicks (Frost et al., 1976; Shannon and Crawford, 1999; \r\nPichegru et  al., 2012). Intensifying storm surges and greater wave \r\nheights can cause nest flooding (Randall et al., 1986; de Villiers, 2002)."


id: 88e7347bdf509884dc95524449e81127
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 19078
content:
"Glacier mass and runoff in the Tropics are projected to diminish by \r\n>70% and >10%, respectively, by 2100, under mean of RCP2.6, 4.5 \r\nand 8.5 (Huss and Hock, 2018; Hock et al., 2019). In Peru, montane \r\nice-field meltwater provides 80% of the water resources for the \r\narid coast where half the population lives (Thompson et  al., 2021). \r\nIncreasing variability of precipitation has compromised rain-fed \r\nagriculture and power generation, particularly in the dry season, \r\nexacerbating pressures for new sources of water (Bradley et al., 2006; \r\nBury et  al., 2013; Buytaert et  al., 2017). There is therefore a risk of \r\nincreasing conflicts between adaptation to climate change to benefit \r\nhuman and natural communities in the high Andes and maintaining \r\nwater provisioning for lowland agricultural and urban areas."


id: 7ae5e03ec65e7f98ff607c397e848fda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 16927
content:
"marked the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene \r\n(Cole et al., 2011), suggesting a sensitivity of Joshua trees of 300 km \r\nof latitude per 4degC."


id: a4756f92c8cb2a621999ddd1982a8ee7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23441
content:
"To promote on-site adaptation to heat extremes and flooding, initiatives \r\nare underway to provide cooler nesting sites that also provide storm \r\nprotection and are sufficiently above the high-water level (Birdlife \r\nInternational, 2018; Saving Animals From Extinction, 2018). Artificial \r\nnest boxes of various designs and constructed from a range of materials \r\nhave been explored, in combination with the use of natural vegetation. \r\nSome designs have proven successful, increasing breeding success \r\n(Kemper et al., 2007; Sherley et al., 2012), but the same designs have \r\nhad less success at other locations (Pichegru, 2013; Lei et al., 2014)."


id: 9fd60d8b282a9f2d71b83cc22fcf0af2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 22684
content:
"Under an emissions scenario that could increase park temperatures \r\nby >4degC by 2100, the suitable climate for the Joshua tree could shift \r\nnorthwards and the species become extirpated from the park (Sweet \r\net al., 2019). Plant mortality would increase from drought stress and \r\nwildfires, which have been rare or absent in the Mojave, but which \r\ninvasive grasses have fuelled and may continue to fuel (Brooks and \r\nMatchett, 2006; DeFalco et al., 2010; Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; \r\nHegeman et al., 2014)."


id: 7b3060bdfb7331216f16d13bb4f2d0fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 16972
content:
"The national park had been trying to conserve the species wherever \r\nin the park it was found. The future risk of extirpation prompted \r\nadaptation of conservation efforts to focus on protecting potential \r\nrefugia, where suitable conditions may persist for the species into the \r\nfuture (Barrows et al., 2020). The national park used spatial analyses \r\nof suitable climate to identify potential refugia under all emissions \r\nscenarios, except for the highest (Barrows and Murphy-Mariscal, 2012; \r\nSweet et  al., 2019). The park prioritises the refugia for removal of \r\ninvasive grasses and fire control (Barrows et al., 2020) and works to \r\nrestore refugia that have burned in fires, using native plants, including \r\nnursery-grown Joshua tree seedlings. The park and its partners are \r\nmonitoring plant species composition and abundance in the refugia \r\nfor early warnings of any changes (Barrows et al., 2014)."


id: df1ac94229a52ff26782bb522b782763
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 32595
content:
"Hand-rearing and releasing African penguin chicks, including from \r\neggs, has long proven valuable because moulting parents, being \r\nshore-bound, are unable to feed late-hatching chicks. Since 2006, over \r\n7,000 orphaned chicks have been released into the wild as part of the \r\nChick Bolstering Project, with a success rate of 77% (Schwitzer et al., \r\n2013; Sherley et al., 2014; Klusener et al., 2018; SANCCOB, 2018). A \r\nnew project at Boulders Beach aims to use real-time weather station \r\ndata, within-nest temperatures and known thresholds of penguin \r\nheat stress as triggers for implementing a Heat Wave Response Plan. \r\nDrawing on well-established chick-rearing facilities and a large body \r\nof expertise, this includes removing heat-stressed eggs and birds, \r\nhand-rearing and/or rehabilitation and release. It is hoped that such \r\nbirds can be released at the proposed new colony site."


id: b47aedef685128d8ec427a668a27bae5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 25930
content:
"2.6.5.6 Case Study: Conserving Climate Change Refugia for the \r\nJoshua Tree in Joshua Tree National Park, CA, USA"


id: 257e5d84d0e77d71bcd08807c1bfea39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 3321
content:
"Joshua Tree National Park conserves 3200 km2\r\n of the Mojave and \r\nSonoran Desert ecosystems. The climate of the national park is arid, \r\nwith an average summer temperature of 27.3degC +- 0.7degC and average \r\nannual precipitation of 170 +- 80 mm yr-1 in the period 1971-2000 \r\n(Gonzalez et  al., 2018). From 1895 to 2017, the average annual \r\ntemperature increased at a significant (P < 0.0001) rate of 1.5degC +- \r\n0.1degC per century and the average annual precipitation decreased at a \r\nsignificant (P = 0.0174) rate of -32 +- 12% per century (Gonzalez et al., \r\n2018). Anthropogenic climate change accounts for half the magnitude \r\nof a 2000-2020 drought in the southwestern USA, the most severe \r\nsince the 1500s (Williams et al., 2020)."


id: 834561a16f5f59fe8b854dcf09ebe29f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 18175
content:
"The national park was established to protect ecosystems and cultural \r\nfeatures unique to the region, particularly the Joshua tree (Yucca \r\nbrevifolia), a tall, tree-like yucca that provides habitat for birds and \r\nother small animals and holds cultural significance. The national \r\npark protects the southernmost populations of the Joshua tree. \r\nPalaeo-biological data from packrat (Neotoma spp.) middens and \r\nfossilised dung of the extinct Shasta ground sloth (Nothrotheriops \r\nshastensis) show that Joshua trees grew 13,000-22,000  years ago \r\nacross a wider range, extending as far as 300 km south into what \r\nis now Mexico (Holmgren et  al., 2010; Cole et  al., 2011). A major \r\nretraction of this range began ~11,700  years ago, coinciding with \r\nwarming of approximately 4degC, caused by Milankovitch cycles, which "


id: 72309675b421ba0f578d48243daf6864
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15591
content:
"A single approach to adaptation is likely to be insufficient (Archer et al., \r\n2014), and community-based adaptation should be integrated as part \r\nof a package of tools applied at the city level. Durban's climate change \r\nadaptation work stream is composed of three separate components: \r\nmunicipal adaptation (adaptation activities linked to the key functions \r\nof local government), community-based adaptation (CbA, focused on \r\nimproving the adaptive capacity of local communities), and a series \r\nof urban management interventions (addressing specific challenges "


id: 6e5a62bc5257a8c0f5da164c28e76e25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 14985
content:
"new approaches including the strategic application of long-term fire \r\nretardant and the installation of kilometres of sprinkler lines (AFAC, \r\n2019). These approaches are thought to have been effective at halting \r\nthe fire and protecting high-value vegetation in some situations. \r\nImpact reports are currently being finalised to quantify the extent \r\nof fire-sensitive vegetation communities that have been affected. \r\nHowever, there is concern that these interventions may have adverse \r\neffects on the values of the TWWHA if applied widely, so while \r\nresearch is ongoing, these will only be applied in strategic areas (e.g., \r\nfire retardant is not being applied to some areas)."


id: 14d3e56e54148785f022625a9916a9fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 786
content:
"such as the urban heat island, increased storm-water runoff, water \r\nconservation and SLR) (Roberts et al., 2013)."


id: 80668fcb9f79f5130bcc66b477d712e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
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vector_id: 17729
content:
"The TWWHA Management Plan (2016) emphasises Aboriginal fire \r\nmanagement as an important value of the area, along with Aboriginal \r\nknowledge of plants, animals, marine resources and minerals (ochre \r\nand rock sources), and the connection with the area as a living and \r\ndynamic landscape. Fire management planning aims to protect \r\nimportant sites from fire and ensure that management does not \r\nimpact Aboriginal cultural values (DPIPWE, 2016). Increasingly, there \r\nis an acknowledgment that the cessation of traditional fire use has led \r\nto changes in vegetation and there are calls to incorporate Aboriginal \r\nburning knowledge into the fire management of the TWWHA."


id: 484f2d29817a15868e8a35668fd555e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 8750
content:
"The city of Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh state in central India, \r\nis dependent for its water supply on Bhojtal, a large man-made lake \r\nbordering the city (Everard et al., 2020). Bhojtal is also an important \r\nconservation site, with its wetlands protected under the Ramsar \r\nconvention and diverse flora and fauna (WWF, 2006). It also provides \r\na wide range of other benefits to people, including tourism, recreation, \r\nnavigation and subsistence and commercial fisheries, supporting the \r\nlivelihoods of many families (Verma, 2001)."


id: 152243667a326162b9f87611a9c6fb05
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 838
content:
"The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) has a high \r\nconcentration of 'palaeo-endemic' plant species which are restricted \r\nto living in cool, wet climates and fire-free environments, but recent \r\nwildfires have burnt substantial stands that are unlikely to recover \r\n(Harris et al., 2018b; Bowman et al., 2021a). The fires led to government \r\ninquiries and a fire-fighting review, which have suggested changes to \r\nmanagement as climate change will make such fires more likely in the \r\nfuture (AFAC, 2016; Press, 2016; AFAC, 2019)."


id: 370d8e9283803d391fc633ce7513ca5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6052
content:
"Climate change in Bhopal may pose ecological and socioeconomic \r\nstresses due to changes in rainfall and weather patterns (Ministry of \r\nEnvironment et  al., 2019), and exacerbated by a series of problems \r\nsuch as waste-water discharge, illegal digging of bore wells and \r\nunsustainable water extraction/exploitation (Everard et  al., 2020). \r\nEcosystem service provision at Bhojtal was assessed using the Rapid \r\nAssessment of Wetland Ecosystem Services (RAWES) approach, \r\nincluding an analysis of the lake's water quality. Information on the \r\ngeology, hydrology and catchment ecology of the lake was collected \r\nand a baseline biodiversity assessment was conducted."


id: c31f78b3a82158e1d978c358bf6ecdcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28272
content:
"After the wildfires in 2016 caused extensive damage (Bowman et al., \r\n2021a), significant efforts and resources were spent trying to protect \r\nthe remaining stands of pencil pine during the 2019 fires, using "


id: ad6c762b8c9f833db2e1677139003fd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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vector_id: 24823
content:
"Implementation of these measures with the help of local communities \r\nimproved the lake's health. NbS are more resilient adaptation measures \r\ntowards climate change. Restoration not only reduced water stress but \r\nalso provides multiple societal benefits in the urban area (Kabisch \r\net al., 2016)."


id: bde3f9c9778970edcffdcb85039359a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27434
content:
"The evidence summarised above (Sections  2.6.2-2.6.4) shows that \r\nby restoring ecosystems it is possible to increase their resilience to \r\nclimate change, including the resilience of the populations of species \r\nthey support and of human communities. However, changes to healthy \r\necosystems and biodiversity are already happening as described in this \r\nchapter (robust evidence, high agreement) and further changes are \r\ninevitable even in scenarios of low GHG emissions (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Planning to manage the consequences of inevitable \r\nchanges and prioritise investments in conservation actions where they \r\nhave the best chance of succeeding (e.g., Section 2.6.5.6) will be an \r\nincreasingly necessary component of adaptation (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Table 2.6)."


id: a9723676e5b4e4bec1cb840a3328a603
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24194
content:
"Peatlands in SEA have undergone extensive logging, drainage and \r\nland use conversion that have caused habitat loss for endemic species, \r\ni.e., the orangutan (Pongo spp.) (Gregory et al., 2012; Struebig et al., \r\n2015). Prolonged droughts associated with El Nino (Section 4.4.3.2) \r\ncompound the effects of drainage, leading to large recurrent fires \r\n(Langner and Siegert, 2009; Gaveau et al., 2014; Putra et al., 2019). \r\nUnder RCP8.5, it is projected that by the end of this century, the \r\nannual rainfall over SEA will decrease significantly (by 30%), and the \r\nnumber of consecutive dry days will increase significantly (by 60%) \r\nover Indonesia and Malaysia (Supari et al., 2020). Peat degradation \r\nand losses to fire result in high GHG emissions (Miettinen et al., 2016) \r\nas well as haze pollution which is a trans-boundary problem in the \r\nregion (Heil et al., 2007)."


id: 220499e2d37dcb94ea8c41c51480715f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2797
content:
"It is possible to help species survive by active interventions such as \r\ntranslocation, but, as described above (Section  2.6.5.1), this is not \r\nstraightforward, is not suitable for all species and is resource-intensive. \r\nModifying local microclimate or hydrological conditions can work for \r\nsome species (Sections 2.6.2, 2.6.5.5), but is likely to be less effective at \r\nhigher levels of climate change. It will also be less successful for larger \r\nspecies and more mobile ones. The microclimate of a tree is much more \r\nclosely coupled with wider atmospheric conditions than that of a small \r\nplant or animal in the boundary layer, and mobile species like birds and \r\nlarge mammals range over large areas rather than being confined to \r\ndiscrete locations where conditions can be manipulated."


id: 571d22836e97b0149a627d7f238310bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11188
content:
"There is potential for using evolutionary changes to enhance the \r\nadaptive capacity for target species, as is being done on the Great \r\nBarrier Reef where symbionts and corals that have survived recent \r\nintense heat-induced bleaching events are being translocated into \r\nareas that have had large die-off. However, known limitations to \r\ngenetic adaptations preclude species-level adaptations to climates \r\nbeyond their ecological and evolutionary history (Sections  2.2.4.6; \r\n2.6.1). All of these interventionist approaches are constrained by \r\nrequiring significant financial resources and expertise. They also \r\nrequire a high level of understanding of individual species autecology, \r\nwhich can take years to acquire, even when resources are available. Ex \r\nsitu conservation (e.g., seed banks) may be the only option to conserve \r\nsome species, especially as levels of warming increase, but this will not \r\nbe feasible for all species."


id: c818e25c298303fcae5e0a50288028e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29064
content:
"projects found that biodiversity increased by 44% and ecosystem \r\nservices by 25% after restoration but values remained lower than in \r\nintact reference systems (Rey Benayas et al., 2009)."


id: 40ecedbc3e35703fd7f3aae227569d0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7602
content:
"EbA, when implemented well, can reduce risks to people but there are \r\nlimits. For example, an extreme flood event may exceed the capacity of \r\nnatural catchments to hold water or slow its flow (Dadson et al., 2017), \r\nand urban shade trees and green spaces can make a few degrees \r\ndifference to temperatures experienced by people but this may not be \r\nenough in the hottest conditions."


id: 3f4f9c36a2df7509ec8e723ea0cfb3c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7350
content:
"In general, adaptation measures can substantially reduce the adverse \r\nimpacts of 1degC-2degC of global temperature rise, but beyond this losses \r\nwill increase (IPCC, 2018b), including species extinctions and changes \r\nlike major biome shifts which cannot be reversed on human time scales. \r\nSome adaptation measures will also become less effective at higher \r\ntemperatures. Whilst adaptation is essential to reduce risks, it cannot \r\nbe regarded as a substitute for effective climate change mitigation \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 28493e82758da0dad6314b9b034b4337
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:59
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3747
content:
"Recent studies have highlighted the importance of ensuring that \r\necosystem protection is not implemented in a way which disadvantages \r\nthose who live in or depend on the most intact ecosystems (Mehrabi \r\net al., 2018; Schleicher et al., 2019) or risk food security. The actual \r\narea of land to be protected and the balance between sustainable use \r\nand protection will need careful planning and targeting to where it can \r\nhave the most benefit (Pimm et al., 2018). It will also be important to "


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"Nature-based solutions provide adaptation and mitigation benefits for climate change as well as contributing to other \r\nsustainable development goals (high confidence). Effective nature-based climate change mitigation stems from inclusive \r\ndecision-making and adaptive management pathways that deliver climate-resilient systems serving multiple sustainable \r\ndevelopment goals. Robust decision-making adjusts management pathways as systems are impacted by ongoing climate \r\nchange. Poorly conceived and poorly designed nature-based mitigation efforts have the potential for multiple negative \r\nimpacts, including competing for land and water with other sectors, reducing human well-being and failing to provide \r\nmitigation that is sustainable in the long term (high confidence)."


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"The concept of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is broad and under debate, but has become prominent in both the scientific literature and \r\npolicy since AR5, and includes earlier concepts like EbA. The key point is that these are actions benefitting both people and biodiversity \r\n(IUCN, 2020) (WGII Glossary). In the context of climate change, NbS provide adaptation and mitigation benefits in ways that support \r\nwild species and habitats, often contributing to other sustainable development goals (robust evidence, high agreement) (Griscom et al., \r\n2017; Keesstra et al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019; IPCC, 2019a; Lewis et al., 2019; Lavorel et al., 2020; Malhi et al., 2020; Seddon \r\net al., 2020b) (AR6 WGIII Chapter 12; Sections 2.2, 2.5.4, 2.6.3, 2.6.5, 2.6.7). Well-designed and implemented NbS mitigation schemes \r\ncan increase carbon uptake or reduce GHG emissions at the same time as protecting or restoring biodiversity and incorporating elements "


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"of food provisioning (Mehrabi et al., 2018). A variety of measures can be part of NbS, ranging from the protection of natural terrestrial, \r\nfreshwater and marine ecosystems to the restoration of degraded ones (this Cross-Chapter Box; Section 13.3) and more sustainable \r\nmanagement of naturally regenerating ecosystems used for food, fibre and energy production (Figure Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1, \r\nChapter 5 in this report, Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5). Agro-ecological practices mitigate and adapt to climate \r\nchange and can promote native biodiversity (high confidence) (Sinclair et al., 2019; Snapp et al., 2021)."


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"Where natural ecosystems have been degraded or destroyed, re-establishing them and restoring natural processes can be a key \r\naction for adaptation and mitigation, and the science of restoration is well established (de los Santos et al., 2019; Duarte et al., 2020) \r\n(Section 13.4.1). Such restoration activities need to adapt to ongoing climate change risks for the landscape and oceans and the species \r\ncomposition of biological communities. Indeed, the impacts of climate change may overwhelm attempts at restoration/conservation of \r\nprevious or existing ecosystems, particularly when the ecosystem is already near its tipping point, as is the case with tropical coral reefs \r\n(Bates et al., 2019; Bruno et al., 2019)."


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"Land (e.g., forests) and oceans (e.g., fisheries) managed for products using sustainable practices (whether applied by individuals, states \r\nor Indigenous Peoples) can also be carbon- and biodiversity-rich, and thus considered effective NbS (Paneque-Galvez et al., 2018; Soto\u0002Navarro et al., 2020). Indigenous Peoples and private forest owners manage, use or occupy at least one-quarter of the global land area, \r\nover one-third of which overlaps with protected areas, thus combining both protection and production (Jepsen et al., 2015; Garnett et al., \r\n2018; IPBES, 2019; Santopuoli et al., 2019)."


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"Intact natural forest ecosystems are major stores of carbon and support large numbers of species that cannot survive in degraded habitats \r\n(very high confidence). Extensive areas of natural forest ecosystems remain in tropical, boreal and (to a lesser extent) temperate biome \r\nregions, but in many regions they are managed (sustainably and unsustainably) or have been degraded or cleared. Deforestation and land \r\ndegradation continue to be a source of global GHG emissions (very high confidence) (Friedlingstein et al., 2019). Protection of existing \r\nnatural forests and sustainable management of semi-natural forests that continue to provide goods and services are highly effective NbS \r\n(Bauhus et al., 2009) (high confidence)."


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"Reforestation of previously forested land can help to protect and recover biodiversity and is one of the most practical and cost-effective \r\nways of sequestering and storing carbon (high confidence) (Nabuurs et al., 2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Paneque-Galvez et al., \r\n2018; Smith et al., 2018; Cook-Patton et al., 2020; Cowie et al., 2021; Drever et al., 2021). This can be achieved through planting or \r\nby allowing natural colonisation by tree and shrub species. The most effective method to deploy depends upon local circumstances \r\n(e.g., the presence of remnant forest cover) or socio-cultural and management objectives. Reforestation with climate-resilient native or \r\ngeographically-near species restores biodiversity at the same time as sequestering large amounts of carbon (Lewis et al., 2019; Rozendaal "


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"et al., 2019). It can also restore hydrological processes, thereby improving water supply and quality (Ellison et al., 2017) and reducing the \r\nrisk of soil erosion and floods (high confidence) (Locatelli et al., 2015)."


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"Afforesting areas such as savannas and temperate peatlands, which would not naturally be forested, damages biodiversity and increases \r\nvulnerability to climate change (high confidence), so cannot be considered a nature-based solution and can even exacerbate GHG \r\nemissions (Sections 2.4.3.5, 2.5.2.5, Box 2.2 in this chapter). Remote sensing-based assessments of the suitability of land for planting \r\ntrees can overestimate potential, due to their failure to adequately distinguish between degraded forest and naturally open areas (Bastin \r\net al., 2019; Veldman et al., 2019; Bastin et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020)."


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"NbS can be a key part of urban climate adaptation efforts. Direct human adaptation benefits may stem from the cooling effects of urban \r\nforests and green spaces (parks and green roofs), from coastal wetlands and mangroves reducing storm surges and flooding and from \r\nsustainable drainage systems designed to reduce surface flooding as a result of extreme rainfall as well as the general benefits to human "


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"AF is a holistic approach that incorporates ecological and socioeconomic principles, many of which have been shown to have a positive \r\nimpact on biodiversity and on the resilience of human and natural systems to climate change (chapter 5, this report). It strives to enhance \r\nbiodiversity, soil health and synergies between agro-ecosystem components, reduces reliance on synthetic inputs (e.g., pesticides), builds \r\non IKLK and fosters social equity (e.g., supporting fair, local markets) (HLPE, 2019; Wezel et al., 2020). AF practices include inter-cropping; \r\nthe mobility of livestock grazing across landscapes; organic agriculture; and the integration of livestock, fish and cropping, cover crops \r\nand agro-forestry (Sections 5.14, FAQ 12.5, FAQ 13.5)."


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"AF significantly improves food security and nutrition by increasing access to healthy, diverse diets and raising incomes for food producers, \r\ndue to the increased biodiversity of crops, animals and landscapes (high confidence) (Garibaldi et al., 2016; D'Annolfo et al., 2017; Isbell \r\net al., 2017; Dainese et al., 2019; Kerr et al., 2021). Livestock mobility improves the site-specific matching of animals' needs with food "


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"availability (Damonte et al., 2019; Mijiddorj et al., 2020; Postigo, 2021), and can generate a form of re-wilding that restores lost ecosystem \r\nfunctioning (Gordon et al., 2021). Conservation of crop wild relatives in situ supports the genetic diversity of crops for a range of future \r\nclimate scenarios (Redden et al., 2015)."


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"Figure  Cross-Chapter  Box  NATURAL.1 |   Decision-making framework to co-maximise adaptation and mitigation benefits from natural systems.\r\nDecision-making pathways are designed to add robustness in the face of uncertainties in future climate change and its impacts. Emphasis is on keeping open as many \r\noptions as possible, for as long as possible, with periodic re-evaluation to aid in choosing pathways forward, even as systems are being impacted by ongoing climate change."


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"NbS provide adaptation and mitigation benefits for climate change as well as contributing to achieving other sustainable development \r\ngoals (high confidence). NbS avoid further emissions and promote CO2 removal, by using approaches that yield long-lasting mitigation \r\nbenefits and avoid negative outcomes for other sustainable development goals. Poorly conceived and poorly designed mitigation efforts \r\nhave the potential for multiple negative impacts: (1) cascading negative effects on long-term mitigation by promoting short-term "


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"Table Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1 |  Assessment of benefits and trade-offs between mitigation and strategies for both biodiversity and human adaptation to future \r\nclimate change. Best practices highlight approaches that lead to maximal positive synergy between mitigation and adaptation; worst practices are those most likely to \r\nlead to negative trade-offs for adaptation. Many best practices have additional societal benefits beyond adaptation, such as food provisioning, recreation and improved \r\nwater quality. Mitigation Potential (Mit. Pot.) and Restoration Potential (Rest. Pot.) are considered."


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"FAQ 2.5 | How can we reduce the risks of climate change to people by protecting and managing nature better?\r\nDamage to our natural environment can increase the risks that climate change poses to people. Protecting and restoring nature can be a way \r\nto adapt to climate change, with benefits for both humans and biodiversity. Examples include reducing flood risk by restoring catchments \r\nand coastal habitats, the cooling effects of natural vegetation and shade from trees and reducing the risk of extreme wildfires by better \r\nmanagement of natural fires."


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"Protecting and restoring natural environments, such as forests and wetlands, can reduce the risks that climate change \r\nposes to people as well as supporting biodiversity, storing carbon and providing many other benefits for human health \r\nand well-being. Climate change is bringing an increasing number of threats to people, including flooding, droughts, \r\nwildfire, heat waves and rising sea levels. These threats can, however, be reduced or aggravated, depending on how \r\nland, sea and freshwater are managed or protected. There is now clear evidence that 'Nature-based Solutions' (NbS) \r\ncan reduce the risks that climate change presents to people. 'Ecosystem-based Adaptation' (EbA) is a part of NbS and \r\nincludes:"


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"NbS, including protecting and restoring mangroves, forests and peatlands, also play an important part in reducing \r\ngreenhouse gas emissions and taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. They can also help people in a wide \r\nrange of other ways, including through providing food, materials and opportunities for recreation. There is \r\nincreasing evidence that spending time in natural surroundings is good for physical and mental health."


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"If NbS are to be effective, it is important that the right adaptation actions are carried out in the right place and that \r\nlocal communities play an active part in making decisions about their local environment. When they are not part of \r\nthe process, conflicts can emerge and benefits can be lost."


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"While NbS help us to adapt to climate change and reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is \r\nimportant to note that there are limits to what they can do. To provide a safe environment for both people and \r\nnature, it will be essential to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from fossil-fuel burning in \r\nthe near future."


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"to note that what is a feasible adaptation response at one point in time \r\nmay change with the level of warming experienced--some techniques \r\nwill be become less effective at higher levels of warming. With global \r\ntemperature rises of <2degC, in many cases, it will be realistic to build \r\nresilience and maintain species and ecosystems in situ, but, at higher \r\nlevels of warming, this will become increasingly difficult; managing \r\ninevitable change, including the consequences of loss and damage, will \r\nbe important (Prober et al., 2019). Similarly, to be effective at higher \r\nlevels of warming may require the adaptation of the EbA approaches \r\nthemselves (Calliari et al., 2019; Martin et al., 2021; Ossola and Lin, \r\n2021). We have therefore not attempted a global-scale assessment \r\nof the feasibility of adaptation options, but rather present some key \r\ncross-cutting considerations in assessing feasibility for adaptation of \r\nand through ecosystems."


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"Many of the necessary techniques for climate change adaptation for \r\nbiodiversity and EbA have been demonstrated and shown to provide \r\na wide range of additional benefits. This does, however, depend on \r\ndeploying the right techniques in the right place (Box  2.2) as well \r\nas engaging local communities (see Section  2.6.6). There is also a \r\nchallenge where there is high demand for land for other purposes, \r\nespecially for agriculture and urban development. Table 2.8 summarises \r\nthe main feasibility considerations, drawing on previous sections. An \r\nassessment of constraints on EbA by Nalau et  al. (2018) addressed \r\nsimilar issues."


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"Table 2.8 |  Considerations in assessing the feasibility of ecosystem restoration for climate change adaptation, according to Singh et al. (2020)"


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"A similar issue can occur in naturally treeless peatlands which can be afforested if they are drained, but this leads to the loss of distinctive \r\npeatland species and communities as well as high GHG emissions (Wilson et al., 2014). The mitigation benefits of growing timber are \r\nreduced or become negative in these conditions due to the CO2 emissions from the oxidation of the drained peat--they can become a \r\nnet carbon source rather than a carbon sink (Simola et al., 2012; Crump, 2017; Goldstein et al., 2020). (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.5.2.8)"


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"using planting (Brancalion et  al., 2019). When assessing costs, it is \r\nalso important to take into account the benefits delivered by different \r\noptions, both in economic terms and regarding other wider benefits."


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"De Groot et al. (2013) analysed 94 restoration projects globally and \r\nfound costs varied by several orders of magnitude, but in terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystems mostly in the range of USD 100-10,000 \r\nper hectare. They did, however, estimate that the majority of these \r\nprojects provided net benefits and should be considered as high-yield \r\ninvestments. Some methods can be much cheaper than others, even in \r\nthe same type of ecosystems in the same country; the estimated cost of \r\nrestoring forest cover in Brazil varied between a mean of USD 49 using \r\nnatural regeneration compared to a mean of USD 2041 per hectare "


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"The 'technological' dimension of feasibility in the context of ecosystems \r\ncan be regarded as the range of techniques available and the capacity \r\nto implement them. As described in Sections 2.6.2 and 2.6.3 above, \r\na wide range of techniques have been developed and are starting to \r\nbe implemented. There is good evidence to support adaptation for "


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"Restoring and preventing further loss of native forests is essential for combatting climate change. Planting trees in historically unforested areas \r\n(grasslands, shrublands, savannas and some peatlands) can reduce biodiversity and increase the risks of damage from climate change. It is \r\ntherefore essential to target tree planting to the appropriate locations and use appropriate species. Restoring and protecting forests reduces \r\nhuman vulnerability to climate change, reduces air pollution, stores carbon and builds the resilience of natural systems."


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"Like all living plants, trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through the process of photosynthesis. In trees, \r\nthis carbon uptake is relatively long-term, since much of it is stored in the trees' woody stems and roots. Therefore, \r\ntree planting can be a valuable contribution to reducing climate change. Besides capturing carbon, planting trees \r\ncan reduce some negative impacts of climate change by providing shade and cooling. It can also help prevent erosion \r\nand reduce flood risk by slowing water flow and improving ground water storage. Restoring forest in degraded areas \r\nsupports biodiversity and can provide benefits to people, ranging from timber to food and recreation."


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"There are some areas where replacing lost trees is useful. These include forest that has been recently cut down and \r\nwhere reforestation is usually practical. However, it is very important to correctly identify areas of forest that are \r\ndegraded or have definitely been deforested. Reforesting places, especially where existing native forest patches \r\noccur, brings benefits both in sucking up carbon from the atmosphere and helping us to adapt to climate change. \r\nPlantations of a non-native species, although offering some economic benefits, do not usually provide the same \r\nrange of positive impacts, generally have lower biodiversity, reduced carbon uptake and storage, and are less \r\nresilient to climate change."


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"Many of these open areas also occur in low-rainfall areas. Planting trees there uses a lot of water and can cause \r\nreductions in stream flow and groundwater. Many of these locations also burn regularly, and planting trees threatens \r\nthe establishing trees but can also increase the intensity of the fires from that of a grass-fuelled fire to that of \r\na wood-fuelled fire. Swapping grassy ecosystems for forests may contribute to warming, as forests absorb more \r\nincoming radiation (warmth) than grasslands. Aside from the negative impacts to adaptation, it is also questionable \r\njust how much carbon can be sequestered in these landscapes as planting trees in grassy ecosystems can reduce carbon \r\ngains. Furthermore, a high below-ground carbon store prevents carbon loss to fire in these fire-prone environments."


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"Another example is peatlands. Peat stores an incredible amount of carbon; maintaining and restoring peatlands \r\nis therefore important to reduce atmospheric carbon. However, the restoration actions depend on what type of \r\npeatland it is and where it is located. Many temperate and boreal peatlands are naturally treeless. Here, planting trees \r\nis often only possible following drainage, but draining and planting (especially of non-native species) destroys native \r\nbiodiversity and releases GHGs. Many peatlands, especially in the Tropics, are naturally forested, and restoring them \r\nrequires re-wetting and restoring the natural tree cover (see Figure FAQ2.2.1) which will increase carbon storage."


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"In between the two extremes of where planting trees is highly suitable and areas where it is not, it is important to \r\nremember that the context matters and that decisions to (re)forest should look beyond simply the act of planting \r\ntrees. We can consider what the ecological, social and economic goals are of tree planting. It is then important to verify \r\nthe local context and decide what restoration action will be most effective. It is also more efficient and effective to \r\nconserve existing forests before worrying about reforesting."


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"Is the land naturally unforested? Many\r\npeople mistakenly assume open areas like \r\ngrasslands, savannas and some peatlands\r\nare degraded forests."


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"Planting trees in areas where they don't \r\nbelong can stress local water supplies,\r\nharm native biodiversity, damage peoples'\r\nlivelihoods and reduce resilience to climate \r\nchange."


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"biodiversity and EbA in general terms and, in many cases, adaptation \r\ndraws on techniques for habitat creation and restoration which have \r\nbeen developed to meet other objectives. However, feasibility needs to \r\nbe assessed alongside the likely effectiveness: a feasible but ineffective \r\nscheme is of no value and the evaluation of success for specific \r\ninterventions remains poorly developed (Morecroft et  al., 2019). It \r\nis therefore often important to proceed with the use of pilot studies, \r\ngood monitoring and the evaluation of outcomes to build confidence "


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content:
"before greater deployment of approaches. A linked technical area is the \r\navailability of specialist skills and knowledge to implement adaptation; \r\nthis can vary considerably according to the type of adaptation measure."


id: 8820bacff9b5dca770e2e6632fdb5152
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18938
content:
"repeat-monitoring and the lack of remote sensing to scale up point \r\nmeasurements, no global methods can yet produce repeating spatial \r\nestimates of soil carbon stock changes."


id: 13350c772e138e7874e649ca45de2043
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 536
content:
"traditionally deliver conservation. Upscaling implementation is likely to \r\nbe dependent on this wider range of interests. There can, however, be \r\nproblems, in that appropriate geographies for decision-making about \r\necosystems (e.g., a catchment) may not directly map onto governance \r\narrangements."


id: e8194752fbe95f7cccd56a43d22fea3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34017
content:
"Despite the growing understanding of the importance of ecosystem \r\nservices, this assessment found limited research on the observed \r\nimpacts of climate change for 14 of 18 ecosystem services (Table 2.1)."


id: 3266396dbec339e2e295cbb8f5b61696
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5338
content:
"Socio-cultural factors are important for adaptation of the natural \r\nenvironment. Reviewing the constraints of EbA, Nalau et  al. (2018) \r\nfound that risk perceptions and cultural preferences for particular \r\ntypes of management approaches were frequently identified in studies."


id: 75a10bf04e5928f584bdb571eaf5867f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16099
content:
"In the IPCC feasibility assessment framework, one integral dimension \r\nis 'environmental/ecological'. In this respect, adaptation by and for \r\necosystems should perform well, and this may be a reason to prefer \r\nEbA to other approaches when there is an alternative. It should, \r\nhowever, be noted that sometimes apparently environmentally \r\npositive approaches such as forest creation can be done in ways which \r\nare damaging (Section 2.6.7 and Box 2.2) and the impacts need to be \r\ncritically assessed for local circumstances."


id: 81c614db9cc41780cd3aa98f390a846a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17945
content:
"Geophysical dimensions are important for ecosystems as they have \r\ntypically shaped which ecosystems can occur where, and feasibility \r\nwill depend on implementing adaptation options in places where they \r\nare appropriate. Palaeo-ecological studies can help inform potential \r\noptions (Wingard et al., 2017)"


id: f38c2c25b90f2774a689ca0e2affcbcc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35828
content:
"Research since the AR5 (Settele et  al., 2014) has increased the \r\nunderstanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability in \r\necosystems. Evidence gaps remain and geographic coverage of \r\nresearch is uneven. This section assesses gaps in ecosystem science \r\nwhere research is necessary for environmental policies and the \r\nmanagement of natural resources, including under the UNFCCC and \r\nthe CBD."


id: 64c70d14454c9d80a9f583c49197e500
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13424
content:
"There are significant evidence gaps in developing adaptation, both for \r\nbiodiversity conservation and EbA. In particular, while many adaptation \r\nmeasures have been proposed and implementation is starting, there are \r\nvery few evaluations of success in the scientific literature (Morecroft \r\net al., 2019; Prober et al., 2019). As detailed in Section 2.6.2, there is a \r\nstrong body of literature on conceptual approaches to climate change \r\nadaptation for biodiversity but very little empirical testing of which \r\napproaches actually work best. Going forward, it is important to put \r\nin place good monitoring and evaluation of adaptation strategies. For \r\nEbA, there are good examples of measuring changes in response to \r\nnew adaptation measures, but these remain relatively rare globally."


id: 7e26bbf35b1d6e5237ac39cbf3fa669b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17414
content:
"Human factors which promote or hinder adaptation are important as \r\nwell as the technical issues. Only a few studies incorporate climate \r\nchange and ecosystem services in integrated decision-making, and \r\neven fewer aim to identify solutions robust to uncertainty (Runting \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 6a4750abcc57ba918d196f7ddce0a183
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14318
content:
"Over the last decades, losses due to natural disasters including those \r\nfrom events related to extreme weather have strongly increased \r\n(Mechler and Bouwer, 2015). There is a need for better assessment of \r\nglobal adaptation costs, funding and investment (Micale et al., 2018). \r\nPotential synergies between international finance for disaster risk \r\nmanagement (DRM) and adaptation have not yet been fully realised. \r\nResearch has almost exclusively focused on normalising losses for \r\nchanges in exposure, but not for vulnerability, which is a major gap, \r\ngiven the dynamic nature of vulnerability (Mechler and Bouwer, 2015)."


id: c56a11d5777a87d71f705b3b73ce958c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28641
content:
"Zhao, Q. et al., 2020: Where Marine Protected Areas would best represent 30% \r\nof ocean biodiversity. Biological Conservation, 244, 108536."


id: 611d355f82486f0d4a6a04f64fe4f384
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12854
content:
"Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D.Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, \r\nM.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen, 2022: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services. In: Climate \r\nChange 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of \r\nthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 379-550, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.005."


id: bb0107963d4376ab080570b84c11d55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26960
content:
"Ocean and coastal ecosystems support life on Earth and many \r\naspects of human well-being. Covering two-thirds of the planet, \r\nthe ocean hosts vast biodiversity and modulates the global climate \r\nsystem by regulating cycles of heat, water and elements, including \r\ncarbon. Marine systems are central to many cultures, and they also \r\nprovide food, minerals, energy and employment to people. Since \r\nprevious assessments1\r\n, new laboratory studies, field observations \r\nand process studies, a wider range of model simulations, Indigenous \r\nknowledge, and local knowledge have provided increasing evidence \r\non the impacts of climate change on ocean and coastal systems, how \r\nhuman communities are experiencing these impacts, and the potential \r\nsolutions for ecological and human adaptation."


id: f8f39a9958cfafe07d198ab897637597
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36678
content:
"Climate-driven impacts on ocean and coastal environments have \r\ncaused measurable changes in specific industries, economic \r\nlosses, emotional harm and altered cultural and recreational \r\nactivities around the world (high confidence). Climate-driven \r\nmovement of fish stocks is causing commercial, small-scale, artisanal "


id: ad65f08a5f2b58a3364eac1691790829
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24814
content:
"and recreational fishing activities to shift poleward and diversify \r\nharvests (high confidence). Climate change is increasing the geographic \r\nspread and risk of marine-borne pathogens like Vibrio sp. (very high \r\nconfidence), which endanger human health and decrease provisioning \r\nand cultural ecosystem services (high confidence). Interacting climate\u0002induced drivers and non-climate drivers are enhancing movement \r\nand bioaccumulation of toxins and contaminants into marine food \r\nwebs (medium evidence, high agreement), and increasing salinity \r\nof coastal waters, aquifers and soils (very high confidence), which \r\nendangers human health (very high confidence). Combined climate\u0002induced drivers and non-climate drivers also expose densely populated \r\ncoastal zones to flooding (high confidence) and decrease physical \r\nprotection of people, property and culturally important sites (very \r\nhigh confidence). {3.4.2.10, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.5.5.3, 3.5.6, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: a056de32fc850cb400ed4f2adffe3799
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22761
content:
"Ocean-focused adaptations, especially those that employ nature\u0002based solutions, address existing inequalities, and incorporate \r\njust and inclusive decision-making and implementation processes, \r\nsupport the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (high \r\nconfidence). There are predominantly positive synergies between \r\nadaptation options for Life Below Water (SDG14), Climate Action \r\n(SDG13) and social, economic and governance SDGs (SDG1-12, 16-17) \r\n(high confidence), but the ability of ocean adaptation to contribute to the "


id: df992bb36a6871b9deb195119fe9398e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32681
content:
"SDGs is constrained by the degree of mitigation action (high confidence). \r\nFurthermore, existing inequalities and entrenched practices limit \r\neffective and just responses to climate change in coastal communities \r\n(high confidence). Momentum is growing towards transformative \r\ninternational and regional governance that will support comprehensive, \r\nequitable ocean and coastal adaptation while also achieving SDG14 \r\n(robust evidence), without compromising achievement of other SDGs. \r\n{3.6.4.0, 3.6.4.2, 3.6.4.3, Figure 3.26}."


id: 8cd2497253ff9298b203dcbd2a60735e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19671
content:
"Previous IPCC Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2014b; IPCC, 2014c; IPCC, \r\n2018; IPCC, 2019b) have expressed growing confidence in the \r\ndetection of climate-change impacts in the ocean and their attribution \r\nto anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Heat and CO2 taken up by \r\nthe ocean (high to very high confidence) (IPCC, 2021b) directly affect \r\nmarine systems, and the resultant \"climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) (e.g., \r\nocean temperature and heatwaves, sea level, dissolved oxygen levels, \r\nacidification; Annex II: Glossary, WGI Figure  SPM.9; IPCC, 2021b) "


id: 21d071fa523d311c6f486f9338e0f236
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2756
content:
"The ocean sustains life on Earth by providing essential resources \r\nand modulating planetary flows of energy and materials. Together, \r\nharvests from the ocean and inland waters provide more than 20% of \r\ndietary animal protein for more than 3.3 billion people worldwide and \r\nlivelihoods for about 60 million people (FAO, 2020b). The global ocean \r\nis centrally involved in sequestering anthropogenic atmospheric CO2\r\nand recycling many elements, and it regulates the global climate system "


id: b27bf7c8de6547a8e607d8021c55a526
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25598
content:
"Detecting changes and attributing them to specific drivers has been \r\nespecially difficult in ocean and coastal ecosystems because drivers, \r\nresponses and scales (temporal, spatial, organisational) often overlap \r\nand interact (IPCC, 2014b; IPCC, 2014c; Abram et al., 2019; Gissi et al., \r\n2021). In addition, some marine systems have short, heterogeneous \r\nor geographically biased observational records, which exacerbate the \r\ninterpretation challenge (Beaulieu et  al., 2013; Christian, 2014; Huggel \r\net al., 2016; Benway et al., 2019). It is even more challenging to detect "


id: 6d4037d0cce1f673a13281c09b401ca3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14809
content:
"Human adaptation to climate impacts on ocean and coastal systems \r\nspans a variety of actions that change human activity to maintain \r\nmarine ecosystem services. After AR5 concluded that coastal \r\nadaptation could reduce the effects of climate impacts on coastal \r\nhuman communities (high agreement, limited evidence) (Wong et al., \r\n2014), SROCC confirmed that mostly risk-reducing ocean and coastal \r\nadaptation responses were underway (Bindoff et al., 2019a). However, "


id: 6a7ea9f4e276c87e3efeb04d6293906b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14370
content:
"FAQ 3.1 | How do we know which changes to marine ecosystems are specifically caused by climate change?"


id: f610dbd20b7df5ac6fb0b6fae9f26f42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36223
content:
"To attribute changes in marine ecosystems to human-induced climate change, scientists use paleorecords (reconstructing the links between \r\nclimate, evolutionary and ecological changes in the geological past), contemporary observations (assessing current climate and ecological \r\nresponses in the field and through experiments) and models. We refer to these as multiple lines of evidence, meaning that the evidence comes \r\nfrom diverse approaches, as described below."


id: d6f236bd90580e249b4c90beee55354
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31322
content:
"Emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from human activity cause ocean warming, acidification, oxygen \r\nloss, and other physical and chemical changes that are affecting marine ecosystems around the world. At the same \r\ntime, natural climate variability and direct human impacts, such as overfishing and pollution, also affect marine \r\necosystems locally, regionally and globally. These climate and non-climate impact drivers counteract each other, add \r\nup or multiply to produce smaller or larger changes than expected from individual drivers. Attribution of changes in \r\nmarine ecosystems requires evaluating the often-interacting roles of natural climate variability, non-climate drivers, \r\nand human-induced climate change. To do this work, scientists use"


id: 3f6005d7573d082a771804c81fe36ea1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7359
content:
"Contemporary observations over recent decades allow scientists to relate the status of marine species and \r\necosystems to changes in climate or other factors. For example, scientists compile large datasets to determine \r\nwhether species usually associated with warm water are appearing in traditionally cool-water areas that are rapidly \r\nwarming. A similar pattern observed in multiple regions and over several decades (i.e., longer than time scales \r\nof natural variability) provides confidence that climate change is altering community structure. This evidence is \r\nweighed against findings from other approaches, such as manipulation experiments, to provide a robust picture of \r\nclimate-change impacts in the modern ocean."


id: 235feb17269c0501448522d9a553ccb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3018
content:
"In manipulation experiments, scientists expose organisms or communities of organisms to multiple stressors, for \r\nexample, elevated CO2, high temperature, or both, based on values drawn from future climate projections. Such \r\nexperiments will involve multiple treatments (e.g., in different aquarium tanks) in which organisms are exposed \r\nto different combinations of the stressors. This approach enables scientists to understand the effects of individual \r\nstressors as well as their interactions to explore physiological thresholds of marine organisms and communities. \r\nThe scale of manipulation experiments can range from small tabletop tanks to large installations or natural ocean \r\nexperiments involving tens of thousands of litres of water."


id: 72c00bfb86aabeb666d09bcd59747ff9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15668
content:
"Ecological effects of climate change are also explored within models developed from fundamental scientific principles \r\nand observations. Using these numerical representations of marine ecosystems, scientists can explore how different \r\nlevels of climate change and non-climate stressors influence species and ecosystems at scales not possible with \r\nexperiments. Models are commonly used to simulate the ecological response to climate change over recent decades \r\nand centuries. Convergence between the model results and the observations suggests that our understanding of the \r\nkey processes is sufficient to attribute the observed ecological changes to climate change, and to use the models to \r\nproject future ecological changes. Differences between model results and observations indicate gaps in knowledge \r\nto be filled in order to better detect and attribute the impacts of climate change on marine life."


id: 8779de743189b8826179bc84e5e24b39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18851
content:
"Using peer-reviewed research spanning the full range of scientific approaches (paleorecords, observations, \r\nexperiments and models), we can assess the level of confidence in the impact of climate change on observed \r\nmodifications in marine ecosystems. We refer to this as multiple lines of evidence, meaning that the evidence comes \r\nfrom the diverse approaches described above. This allows policymakers and managers to address the specific actions \r\nneeded to reduce climate change and other impacts."


id: 831b0814ab39be40b6de99141fbfe299
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18155
content:
"Figure FAQ3.1.1 |  Examples of well-known impacts of anthropogenic climate change and associated nature-based adaptation. To attribute changes \r\nin marine ecosystems to anthropogenic climate change, scientists use multiple lines of evidence including paleorecords, contemporary observations, manipulation \r\nexperiments and models."


id: 3f53e560c19cb21dcbb861a7ea2c01d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7353
content:
"Table 3.2 |  Overview of the main global ocean climatic impact-drivers and their observed and projected trends from WGI AR6, with corresponding confidence levels and links to \r\nWGI chapters where these trends are assessed in detail"


id: 9118008b59845108e3c28c698d87039c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20365
content:
"Climate change exposes ocean and coastal ecosystems to changing \r\nenvironmental conditions, including ocean warming, SLR, acidification, \r\ndeoxygenation and other climatic impact-drivers (CIDs), which have \r\ndistinct regional and temporal characteristics (Gruber, 2011; IPCC, \r\n2018). This section aims to build on the WGI AR6 assessment (Table 3.2) \r\nto provide an ecosystem-oriented framing of CIDs. Updating SROCC, \r\nprojected trends assessed here are based on a new range of scenarios \r\n(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs), as used in the Coupled Model \r\nIntercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; Section 1.2.2)."


id: 4e4ce04f76d10e7b221a151f4df6342a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9748
content:
"under SSP1-2.6, and 3-15  times under SSP5-8.5, with the largest \r\nincreases in tropical and Arctic oceans (WGI AR6 Box  9.2; Frolicher \r\net al., 2018; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 9ea2f081b4cc46e2b02d52ad61c7fcb1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22497
content:
"Global mean sea level (GMSL) (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3) \r\nhas risen by about 0.20 m since 1901 and continues to accelerate (WGI \r\nAR6 Section 2.3.3.3; Church and White, 2011; Jevrejeva et al., 2014; \r\nHay et  al., 2015; Kopp et  al., 2016; Dangendorf et  al., 2017; WCRP \r\nGlobal Sea Level Budget Group, 2018; Kemp et al., 2018; Ablain et al., \r\n2019; Gulev et al., 2021)."


id: 3e80105eb39cece0e6381fea5bcc0f1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7213
content:
"Most coastal ecosystems (mangroves, seagrasses, salt marshes, shallow \r\ncoral reefs, rocky shores and sandy beaches) are affected by changes in \r\nrelative sea level (RSL, the change in the mean sea level relative to the \r\nland; Section 3.4.2). Regional rates of RSL rise differ from the global \r\nmean due to a range of factors, including local subsidence driven \r\nby anthropogenic activities such as groundwater and hydrocarbon \r\nextraction (WGI AR6 Box 9.1; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). In many deltaic \r\nregions, anthropogenic subsidence is currently the dominant driver \r\nof RSL rise (WGI AR6 Section 9.6.3.2; Tessler et al., 2018; Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021). RSL rise is driving a global increase in the frequency of \r\nextreme sea levels (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Section 9.6.4.1; Fox\u0002Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 356713424302c621c6ddbfb92f09371a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5814
content:
"Figure 3.4 |  Historical and projected climate velocity. Climate velocities (in kilometres per decade) are shown for the (a,d,g) historical period (1965-2014), and the last \r\n50 years of the 21st century (2051-2100), under (b,e,h) SSP1-2.6 and (c,f,i) SSP5-8.5. Also shown are the epipelagic (0-200 m), mesopelagic (200-1000 m) and bathypelagic \r\n(1000-4000 m) domains. Updated figure from Brito-Morales et al. (2020), with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models used in Kwiatkowski et al. (2020)."


id: 464cea7092f818bcc40c4f12278c0112
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8448
content:
"dynamic processes), GMSL between 1995-2014 and 2100 is likely to \r\nrise by 0.28-0.55 m under SSP1-1.9, 0.33-0.61 m under SSP1-2.6, \r\n0.44-0.76 m under SSP2-4.5, 0.55-0.90 m under SSP3-7.0 and 0.63-\r\n1.02 m under SSP5-8.5 (Figure 3.5). Under high-emission scenarios, ice\u0002sheet processes in which there is low confidence and deep uncertainty\r\nmight contribute more than one additional metre to GMSL rise by 2100 \r\n(WGI AR6 Chapter 9; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 9f8138447b211d218902c5accfafd495
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22637
content:
"GMSL rise through the middle of the 21st  century exhibits limited \r\ndependence on emissions scenario; between 1995-2014 and 2050, \r\nGMSL is likely to rise by 0.15-0.23 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.20-0.30 m \r\nunder SSP5-8.5 (WGI AR6 Section  9.6.3; Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021). \r\nBeyond 2050, GMSL and RSL projections are increasingly sensitive to \r\nthe differences among emission scenarios. Considering only processes \r\nin which there is at least medium confidence (e.g., thermal expansion, \r\nland-water storage, land-ice surface mass balance and some ice-sheet "


id: 1e7a5ad4ff8304e6e3635373ecf2e443
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2237
content:
"Nevertheless, projected future annual cumulative upwelling wind \r\nchanges at most locations and seasons remain within +-10-20% of \r\npresent-day values (medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Section  9.2.3.5; \r\nFox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 4ac16bc8e1ec7a530407ba5a7e464528
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9178
content:
"Rising mean RSL will continue to drive an increase in the frequency of \r\nextreme sea levels (high confidence). The expected frequency of the \r\ncurrent 1-in-100-year extreme sea level is projected to increase by a \r\nmedian of 20-30 times across tide-gauge sites by 2050, regardless of \r\nemission scenario (medium confidence). In addition, extreme-sea-level \r\nfrequency may be affected by changes in tropical cyclone climatology \r\n(low confidence), wave climatology (low confidence) and tides (high \r\nconfidence) associated with climate change and sea level change (WGI \r\nAR6 Section 9.6.4.2; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: b40848f985c8fad623ed28699ae719e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25840
content:
"Continuous observation of the Atlantic meridional overturning \r\ncirculation (AMOC) has improved the understanding of its variability \r\n(Frajka-Williams et  al., 2019), but there is low confidence in the \r\nquantification of AMOC changes in the 20th century because of low \r\nagreement in quantitative reconstructed and simulated trends (WGI \r\nAR6 Sections 2.3.3, 9.2.3.1; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Gulev et al., 2021). \r\nDirect observational records since the mid-2000s remain too short to \r\ndetermine the relative contributions of internal variability, natural \r\nforcing and anthropogenic forcing to AMOC change (high confidence) \r\n(WGI AR6 Sections 2.3.3, 9.2.3.1; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Gulev et al., \r\n2021). Over the 21st century, AMOC will very likely decline for all SSP \r\nscenarios but will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100 (WGI \r\nAR6 Sections 4.3.2, 9.2.3.1; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021)."


id: 64e83eb9f9f5a377de63364696de6126
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13443
content:
"Ocean circulation and its variations are key to the evolution of the \r\nphysical, chemical and biological properties of the ocean. Vertical \r\nmixing and upwelling are critical factors affecting the supply of \r\nnutrients to the sunlit ocean and hence the magnitude of primary \r\nproductivity. Ocean currents not only transport heat, salt, carbon and \r\nnutrients, but they also control the dispersion of many organisms and \r\nthe connectivity between distant populations."


id: 7f532cf752e5dc88da234a4a787c4dfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17585
content:
"Sea ice is a key driver of polar marine life, hosting unique ecosystems \r\nand affecting diverse marine organisms and food webs through its \r\nimpact on light penetration and supplies of nutrients and organic \r\nmatter (Arrigo, 2014). Since the late 1970s, Arctic sea ice area has \r\ndecreased for all months, with an estimated decrease of 2 million km2\r\n(or 25%) for summer sea ice (averaged for August, September and \r\nOctober) in 2010-2019 as compared with 1979-1988 (WGI AR6 \r\nSection 9.3.1.1; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). For Antarctic sea ice there is \r\nno significant global trend in satellite-observed sea ice area from 1979 \r\nto 2020 in either winter or summer, due to regionally opposing trends \r\nand large internal variability (WGI AR6 Section 9.3.2.1; Maksym, 2019; \r\nFox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 2f4412147232605d94f8b4b52668704
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4855
content:
"CMIP6 simulations project that the Arctic Ocean will likely become \r\npractically sea ice free (area below 1 million km2\r\n) for the first time before \r\n2050 and in the seasonal sea ice minimum in each of the four emission \r\nscenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Figure 3.7; WGI \r\nAR6 Section 9.3.2.2; Notze and SIMIP Community, 2020; Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021). Antarctic sea ice area is also projected to decrease during \r\nthe 21st century, but due to mismatches between model simulations \r\nand observations, combined with a lack of understanding of reasons \r\nfor substantial inter-model spread, there is low confidence in model \r\nprojections of future Antarctic sea ice changes, particularly at the \r\nregional level (WGI AR6 Section  9.3.2.2; Roach et  al., 2020; Fox\u0002Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: ef628db4f452824020bbef810e35a463
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35142
content:
"Contrasting changes among the major eastern boundary coastal \r\nupwelling systems (EBUS) were identified in AR5 (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2014). While SROCC assessed with high confidence that three \r\n(Benguela, Peru-Humboldt, California) out of the four major EBUS have \r\nexperienced upwelling-favourable wind intensification in the past \r\n60 years (Sydeman et al., 2014; Bindoff et al., 2019a), WGI AR6 revisited \r\nthis assessment based on evidence showing low agreement between \r\nstudies that have investigated trends over past decades (Varela et al., \r\n2015). WGI AR6 assessed that only the California Current system has \r\nundergone large-scale upwelling-favourable wind intensification since \r\nthe 1980s (medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Section  9.2.1.5; Garcia\u0002Reyes and Largier, 2010; Seo et al., 2012; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: c7d70b69feaf09ac56d8cdcca5cb4b53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29018
content:
"While no consistent pattern of contemporary changes in upwelling\u0002favourable winds emerges from observation-based studies, numerical \r\nand theoretical work projects that summertime winds near poleward \r\nboundaries of upwelling zones will intensify, while winds near \r\nequatorward boundaries will weaken (high confidence) (WGI AR6 \r\nSection  9.2.3.5; Garcia-Reyes et  al., 2015; Rykaczewski et  al., 2015; \r\nWang et  al., 2015; Aguirre et  al., 2019; Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021). "


id: 3840137e1693c12e535ab160b6c490c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6221
content:
"The ocean's uptake of anthropogenic carbon affects its chemistry \r\nin a process referred to as ocean acidification, which increases the \r\nconcentrations of aqueous CO2, bicarbonate and hydrogen ions, and \r\ndecreases pH, carbonate ion concentrations and calcium carbonate \r\nmineral saturation states (Doney et  al., 2009). Ocean acidification "


id: 5309556a5d6c665dbef46e77295662d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10521
content:
"affects a variety of biological processes with, for example, lower \r\ncalcium carbonate saturation states reducing net calcification rates \r\nfor some shell-forming organisms and higher CO2 concentrations \r\nincreasing photosynthesis for some phytoplankton and macroalgal \r\nspecies (Section 3.3.2)."


id: ecb76a6ffde85b4240c6ba0e8bed8bad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34719
content:
"Direct measurements of ocean acidity from ocean time series, as well as \r\npH changes determined from other shipboard studies, show consistent \r\ndecreases in ocean surface pH over the past few decades (virtually \r\ncertain) (WGI AR6 Section 5.3.2.2; Takahashi et al., 2014; Bindoff et al., \r\n2019a; Sutton et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021)."


id: 8c4f71c9bcaea61ee80bf5a79a481a35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19583
content:
"Since the 1980s, surface ocean pH has declined by a very likely rate \r\nof 0.016-0.020 per decade in the subtropics and 0.002-0.026 per \r\ndecade in the subpolar and polar zones (WGI AR6 Section  5.3.2.2; \r\nCanadell et al., 2021). Typically, the pH of global surface waters has \r\ndecreased from 8.2 to 8.1 since the pre-industrial era (1750 CE), a \r\ntrend attributable to rising atmospheric CO2 (virtually certain) (Orr \r\net al., 2005; Jiang et al., 2019)."


id: f47838a45c67d5330d7751b06e53964b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35966
content:
"Future declines in subsurface pH (Figure  3.6) will be modulated by \r\nchanges in ocean overturning and water-mass subduction (Resplandy \r\net al., 2013), and in organic matter remineralisation (Chen et al., 2017). \r\nIn particular, decreases in pH will be less consistent at the seafloor than \r\nat the surface and will be linked to the transport of surface anomalies \r\nto depth. For example, >20% of the North Atlantic seafloor deeper \r\nthan 500 m, including canyons and seamounts designated as marine \r\nprotected areas (MPAs), will experience pH reductions >0.2 by 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5 (Gehlen et al., 2014). Changes in pH in the abyssal ocean \r\n(>3000 m deep) are greatest in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, with \r\nlesser impacts in the Southern and Pacific Oceans by 2100, mainly due \r\nto ventilation time scales (Sweetman et al., 2017)."


id: f96780f78ab3f15d92d3cc0c2a4c1316
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36748
content:
"Ocean deoxygenation, the loss of oxygen in the ocean, results from \r\nocean warming, through a reduction in oxygen saturation, increased \r\noxygen consumption, increased ocean stratification and ventilation \r\nchanges (Keeling et  al., 2010; IPCC, 2019a). In recent decades, \r\nanthropogenic inputs of nutrients and organic matter (Section 3.1) have \r\nincreased the extent, duration and intensity of coastal hypoxia events \r\nworldwide (Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008; Rabalais et al., 2010; Breitburg \r\net al., 2018), while pollution-induced atmospheric deposition of soluble \r\niron over the ocean has accelerated open-ocean deoxygenation (Ito \r\net al., 2016). Deoxygenation and acidification often coincide because \r\nbiological consumption of oxygen produces CO2. Deoxygenation can \r\nhave a range of detrimental effects on marine organisms and reduce \r\nthe extent of marine habitats (Sections 3.3.2, 3.4.3.1; Vaquer-Sunyer \r\nand Duarte, 2008; Chu and Tunnicliffe, 2015)."


id: ab779bbcca0eebc0f0ed57179067a74a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24490
content:
"Changes in ocean oxygen concentrations have been analysed from \r\ncompilations of in situ data dating back to the 1960s (Helm et  al., \r\n2011; Ito et al., 2017; Schmidtko et al., 2017). SROCC concluded that \r\na loss of oxygen had occurred in the upper 1000 m of the ocean \r\n(medium confidence), with a global mean decrease of 0.5-3.3% (very \r\nlikely range) over 1970-2010 (Bindoff et al., 2019a). Based on new \r\nregional assessments (Queste et  al., 2018; Bronselaer et  al., 2020; \r\nCummins and Ross, 2020; Stramma et al., 2020), WGI AR6 assesses \r\nthat ocean deoxygenation has occurred in most regions of the open \r\nocean since the mid-20th century (high confidence), but it is modified \r\nby climate variability on interannual and inter-decadal time scales "


id: b2fbbf81f976b097fd12c103c11e5602
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25676
content:
"Mean open-ocean surface pH is projected to decline by 0.08 +- 0.003 \r\n(very likely range), 0.17 +- 0.003, 0.27 +- 0.005 and 0.37 +- 0.007 pH "


id: bf1a8b3ea3c4ee89bf5c36b613221e6b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27619
content:
"that the surface ocean will encounter reduced nitrate concentrations \r\nin the 21st century (medium confidence)."


id: 3ab0c34902dd814fad3f6106cdfb902
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6603
content:
"(medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Sections  2.3.3.6, 5.3.3.2; Canadell \r\net al., 2021; Gulev et al., 2021). New findings since SROCC also confirm \r\nthat the volume of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding at \r\nmany locations (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Section 5.3.3.2; Canadell \r\net al., 2021)."


id: bb79c7d0170d4ff88e13746a5d981847
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27055
content:
"In the 21st  century, ocean and coastal ecosystems are projected to \r\nface conditions unprecedented over past centuries to millennia (high \r\nconfidence) (Section 3.2; WGI AR6 Chapters 4, 9; Fox-Kemper et al., \r\n2021; Lee et al., 2021), with increased temperatures (virtually certain) \r\nand frequency and severity of MHWs (very high confidence), stronger \r\nupper-ocean stratification (high confidence), continued rise in GMSL \r\nthroughout the 21st century (high confidence) and increased frequency \r\nof extreme sea levels (high confidence), further acidification (virtually \r\ncertain), oxygen decline (high confidence) and decreased surface \r\nnitrate inventories (medium confidence)."


id: 217f477114ae099fbe0cdf4dfbe80ae4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2693
content:
"The rates and magnitudes of these changes largely depend on the extent \r\nof future emissions (very high confidence), with surface ocean warming \r\nand acidification (very likely range) at +3.47degC +- 1.28degC and -0.44 pH \r\nunits +- 0.008 pH units in 2080-2099 (relative to 1870-1899) for SSP5-\r\n8.5 compared with +1.42degC +- 0.53degC and -0.16 pH units +- 0.003 pH \r\nunits for SSP1-2.6 (Figure 3.5; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020)."


id: f89acd9ab56de96048a2212951812fd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36627
content:
"In general, the projected changes in climate-induced drivers are less \r\nin absolute terms in the deep-sea (mesopelagic and bathypelagic \r\ndomains and deep-sea habitats) than in the surface ocean and in \r\nshallow-water habitats (e.g., kelp ecosystems, warm-water corals) \r\n(very high confidence) (Figures 3.6, 3.7; Mora et al., 2013; Sweetman \r\net al., 2017). The mesopelagic domain will be nevertheless exposed to \r\nhigh rates of deoxygenation (Figure 3.6) and high climate velocities \r\n(Figure 3.4; Section 3.2.2.1), as well as impacted by the shoaling of \r\naragonite or calcite saturation horizon (Section  3.2.3.2). Significant \r\ndifferences in projected trends between the SSPs show that mitigation \r\nstrategies will limit exposure of deep-sea ecosystems to potential \r\nwarming, acidification and deoxygenation during the 21st  century \r\n(very high confidence) (Figure 3.6; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020)."


id: 71ca86c16067e52156b7c4718b6ac6a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15533
content:
"Future changes in nutrient concentrations have been estimated \r\nusing ESMs, with future increases in stratification generally leading \r\nto decreased nutrient levels in surface waters (IPCC, 2019b). CMIP6 \r\nmodels project a decline in the nitrate concentration of the upper \r\n100 m in 2080-2099 relative to 1995-2014 of -0.46  +-  0.45 (very \r\nlikely range), -0.60 +- 0.58, -0.80 +- 0.77 and -1.00 +- 0.78 mmol m-3\r\nunder SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively (Figure  3.5; \r\nKwiatkowski et al., 2020). These declines in nitrate concentration are \r\ngreater than simulated by the CMIP5 models in their RCP analogues, \r\na likely consequence of enhanced surface warming and stratification \r\nin CMIP6 models (Figure 3.5; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020). It is concluded "


id: c3d3a45d017c95e64332336717bb2f45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28378
content:
"Figure 3.6 |  Projected trends across open-ocean systems. Projected annual and global (a) average warming, (b) acidification, (c) changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations \r\nand (d) changes in nitrate (NO3) concentrations for four open-ocean systems, including the epipelagic (0-200 m depth), mesopelagic (200-1000 m), bathypelagic (>1000 m) \r\ndomains and deep benthic waters (>200 m). All projections are based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): \r\nSSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Kwiatkowski et al., 2020). Anomalies in the near-term (2020-2041), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) are all relative to \r\n1985-2014. Error bars represent very likely ranges."


