# document

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"The boundaries of the data and the designations used do not imply official endorsement, acceptance or the expression of any opinion whatsoever \r\non the part of the IPCC or the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the \r\ndelimitation of its frontiers or boundaries."


id: 75161f9132063e44859769d7542b0138
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"Please use the following reference to cite the whole report: \r\nIPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, \r\nS. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, \r\n3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844."


id: 3b603fca6d69cdd6a1bde45344a84bfc
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"Front cover artwork: A Borrowed Planet - Inherited from our ancestors. On loan from our children. by Alisa Singer www.environmentalgraphiti.org \r\n(c) 2022 Alisa Singer"


id: 330c44b57ca11bd681313c26e28ed21
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"representing a wide range of disciplines. WMO and UNEP are proud \r\nthat so many of the experts belong to their communities and networks. \r\nWe express our deep gratitude to all authors, review editors and expert \r\nreviewers for devoting their knowledge, expertise and time especially \r\ngiven the challenges created by the Covid pandemic. We would like \r\nto thank the staff of the Working Group II Technical Support Unit, the \r\nWGII Science Advisor and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedication. "


id: 447c35ff95b745206d18bb1b336cf1e4
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"As an intergovernmental body jointly established in 1988 by the \r\nWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations \r\nEnvironment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC has provided policymakers \r\nwith the most authoritative and objective scientific and technical \r\nassessments. Beginning in 1990, this series of IPCC Assessment Reports, \r\nSpecial Reports, Technical Papers, Methodology Reports and other \r\nproducts have become standard works of reference. "


id: 50403552cf65b4aadd7b85946d2d8af8
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"We would particularly like to thank Dr Hoesung Lee, Chairman of the \r\nIPCC, for his direction of the IPCC and we express our deep gratitude to \r\nDr Hans-Otto Portner and Dr Debra Roberts, the Co-Chairs of Working \r\nGroup II for their tireless leadership throughout the development and \r\nproduction of this report. "


id: f0656de2a09c307adff1aa17a71b955a
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"This Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment \r\nReport contains important new scientific, technical and socio-economic \r\nknowledge that can be used to produce information and services for \r\nassisting society to act to address the challenges of climate change. \r\nThe timing is particularly significant, as this information provides a \r\nnew impetus, through clear assessment findings, to inform the first \r\nGlobal Stocktake under the United Nations Framework Convention on \r\nClimate Change."


id: 91d71d5b91e1cca7236a5cd6c7dd6034
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"Climate change is a long-term challenge, but the need for urgent \r\naction now is clear. The conclusion of the report's Summary for \r\nPolicymakers summarizes this succinctly. 'The cumulative scientific \r\nevidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well\u0002being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory \r\nglobal action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly \r\nclosing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable \r\nfuture for all.' We couldn't agree more."


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"This report consists of a short Summary for Policymakers, a Technical \r\nSummary, eighteen Chapters, seven Cross-Chapter Papers, five Annexes \r\nincluding the Global to Regional Atlas, as well as online Supplementary \r\nMaterial. "


id: 81df748f81c72185202e87bfe318ab62
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"The introductory chapter (Chapter 1) provides the reader with the \r\nframing and context of the report and highlights key concepts used \r\nthroughout the report."


id: 83abf2913f6f61a349e61cd0bde24e73
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"The sectoral chapters (Chapters 2-8) cover risks, adaptation and \r\nsustainability for systems impacted by climate change. They assess \r\nimpacts, risks, adaptation options and limits and the interactions of \r\nrisks and responses for climate resilient development for ecosystems, \r\nwater, food, cities, human health, communities and livelihoods. "


id: 573faeae197059d001cc482b3c67e8cc
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"The regional chapters (Chapters 9-15) assess the observed impacts \r\nand projected risks at regional and sub-regional levels for Africa, Asia, \r\nAustralasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America and \r\nSmall Islands. They assess adaptation options including limits, barriers \r\nand adaptive capacity, as well as the interaction of risks and responses \r\nfor climate resilient development. "


id: 25b1ed4a7dde43f9aad972f732b6a27f
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"The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and \r\nbiodiversity, and human societies, and integrates knowledge more \r\nstrongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences \r\nthan earlier IPCC assessments. The assessment of climate change \r\nimpacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently \r\nunfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall \r\nunsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem \r\ndegradation, rapid urbanisation, human demographic shifts, social and \r\neconomic inequalities and a pandemic. "


id: 7143666e5dd4519ffefb824c52061c8b
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"The Cross-Chapter Papers (1-7) consider additional regionalisation's \r\nincluding polar regions, tropical forests, deserts, mountains and the \r\nMediterranean, as well as highlighting the topics of biodiversity \r\nhotspots and cities by the sea. The cross-chapter papers assess observed \r\nimpacts and projected risks of climate change, vulnerability, adaptation \r\noptions and, where applicable, climate resilient development. "


id: e70143b21f94b915e1426c4a11216ac6
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"Working Group II introduces several new components in its latest \r\nreport: These include the novel cross-chapter papers which provide \r\nfocused assessments and updates from the special reports and include \r\ncoverage of topics such as biodiversity hotspots, cities and settlements \r\nby the sea, deserts and desertification, mountains, tropical forests as \r\nwell as the Mediterranean and polar regions. Another new component \r\nis an atlas that presents data and findings on observed climate change \r\nimpacts and projected risks from global to regional scales, thus offering \r\neven more insights for decision makers. The Working Group II Report is \r\nbased on the published scientific and technical literature accepted for \r\npublication by 1 September 2021. "


id: 5ac7ab1708c75f52511ba93d8303c684
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"The synthesis chapters (Chapters 16-18) address sustainable devel\u0002opment pathways integrating adaptation and mitigation. They assess \r\nkey risks across sectors and regions (Chapter 16) and decision-making \r\noptions for managing risk (Chapter 17) and the ways climate impacts \r\nand risks hinder climate resilient development in different sectoral and \r\nregional contexts as well as the pathways to achieving climate resilient \r\ndevelopment (Chapter 18). "


id: b2fa833afcc6014865356f53d68506b0
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"This Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment \r\nReport represents the combined efforts of hundreds of experts in the \r\nscientific, technological and socio-economic fields of climate science \r\nand has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures \r\nestablished by the IPCC. A scoping meeting for the Sixth Assessment \r\nReport was held in May 2017 and the outlines for the contributions \r\nof the three Working Groups were approved at the 46th Session \r\nof the Panel in September 2017. Governments and IPCC observer \r\norganisations nominated experts for the author team. The team of 231 \r\nCoordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors plus 39 Review Editors \r\nselected by the Working Group II Bureau was accepted at the 55th "


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"During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Sixth \r\nAssessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current \r\nknowledge of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to \r\npolicymakers. In this report, Working Group II examines the impacts \r\nof climate change on nature and people around the globe. It explores \r\nfuture impacts at different levels of warming and the resulting risks, \r\nand offers options to strengthen nature's and society's resilience to \r\nongoing climate change, to fight hunger, poverty, and inequality and \r\nkeep Earth a place worth living on - for current as well as for future \r\ngenerations."


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"and the Government of Germany. We also note with appreciation the \r\nadditional support for inclusivity training provided by the International \r\nCentre for Integrated Mountain Development. The support provided by \r\nmany governments as well as through the IPCC Trust Fund for the many \r\nexperts participating in the process is also noted with appreciation. "


id: 9d6e83e399b7670539c8dbb51503e489
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"Session of the IPCC Bureau in January 2018. In addition, more than \r\n675 Contributing Authors provided draft text and information to the \r\nauthor teams at their request. Drafts prepared by the authors were \r\nsubject to two rounds of formal review and revision followed by a final \r\nround of government comments on the Summary for Policymakers. A \r\ntotal of 62,418 written review comments were submitted by more than \r\n1600 individual expert reviewers and 51 governments. The Review \r\nEditors for each chapter monitored the review process to ensure that \r\nall substantive review comments received appropriate consideration. \r\nThe Summary for Policymakers was approved line-by-line and the \r\nunderlying report was then accepted at the 12th Session of IPCC \r\nWorking Group II from 14 to 27 February 2022."


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"The staff of the IPCC Secretariat based in Geneva provided a wide \r\nrange of support for which we would like to thank Abdalah Mokssit, \r\nSecretary of the IPCC, Deputy Secretaries, Ermira Fida and Kerstin \r\nStendahl, and their colleagues Jesbin Baidya, Laura Biagioni, Annie \r\nCourtin, Oksana Ekzarkho, Judith Ewa, Joelle Fernandez, Jennifer \r\nLew Schneider, Jonathan Lynn, Andrej Mahecic, Nina Peeva, Sophie \r\nSchlingemann, Mxolisi Shongwe, Melissa Walsh, and Werani Zabula. "


id: f480684455859b8c0cd728f5b89c853f
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"The report production was managed by the Technical Support Unit of \r\nIPCC Working Group II, through the generous financial support of the \r\nGerman Federal Ministry for Education and Research and the Alfred \r\nWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. \r\nAdditional funding from the Governments of Germany, Norway and \r\nNew Zealand supports the Working Group II Technical Support Unit \r\noffice in Durban, South Africa. Without the support of all these bodies \r\nthis report would not have been possible."


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"We express our deepest appreciation for the expertise and commitment \r\nshown by the Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors throughout \r\nthe process. They were ably helped by the many Contributing Authors \r\nwho supported the drafting or the report. The Review Editors were \r\ncritical in assisting the author teams and ensuring the integrity of \r\nthe review process. We are grateful to the Chapter Scientists who \r\nsupported the chapter and cross-chapter paper teams in the delivery of \r\nthe report. We would also like to thank all the expert and government \r\nreviewers who submitted comments on the drafts. "


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"This Report could not have been prepared without the dedication, \r\ncommitment, and professionalism of the members of the Working \r\nGroup II Technical Support Unit and Science Advisor: Melinda Tignor, \r\nElvira Poloczanska, Katja Mintenbeck, Andres Alegria, Marlies Craig, \r\nSandra Gotze, Tijama Kersher, Stefanie Langsdorf, Sina Loschke, \r\nPhilisiwe Manqele, Vincent Moller, Anka Muhle, Komila Nabiyeva, \r\nAlmut Niebuhr, Andrew Okem, Este Prentzler, Bardhyl Rama, Jussi \r\nSavolainen, and Stefan Weisfeld. Additional contributions from Daniel \r\nBelling, Wolfgang Dieck, Bastian Maus, Maike Nicolai, Jan Petzold, \r\nHanna Scheuffele, and Nora Weyer are recalled with appreciation. The \r\nsupport provided by Nina Hunter and Michelle North is also recognized."


id: 526fe8946e7e2afded57dfaccb3e3c56
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"The production of the report was guided by members of the Working \r\nGroup II Bureau. We would like to thank our colleagues who supported \r\nand advised us in the development of the report: Working Group II Vice\u0002Chairs Andreas Fischlin, Mark Howden, Carlos Mendez, Joy Jacqueline \r\nPereira, Roberto A. Sanchez-Rodriguez, Sergey Semenov, Pius Yanda, \r\nand Taha M. Zatari. Our appreciation also goes to Ko Barrett, Thelma \r\nKrug, and Youba Sokona, Vice Chairs of IPCC, who ably supported us \r\nduring the planning process and approval. "


id: 4be5b84da6c9924883dbaab7e26fc72a
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"Our sincere thanks go to the hosts and organizers of the Scoping \r\nMeeting, the four Lead Author Meetings, and the Working Group II \r\nSession. We gratefully acknowledge the support from the United \r\nNations Economic Commission for Africa; the Government of South \r\nAfrica and the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment; \r\nthe Government of Nepal and the International Centre for Integrated \r\nMountain Development; the Government of Portugal, the Center for \r\nMarine Sciences, and the University of Algarve; the Government of \r\nGuatemala and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources; "


id: 3304665c7e886a6e2c65f43f4542619b
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"Our warmest thanks go to the collegial and collaborative support \r\nprovided by Working Group I and Working Group III Co-Chairs, \r\nVice-Chairs and Technical Support Units. In addition, the following \r\ncontributions are gratefully acknowledged: le-tex publishing services \r\nGmbH (copyedit and layout), Marilyn Anderson (index)."


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"And a final, special thank you to the colleagues, family and friends who \r\nsupported us through the many long hours and days spent at home \r\nand away from home while producing this report. "


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"Chapter 2, 'Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their \r\nservices', and Cross-Chapter Paper 3, 'Deserts, semi-arid areas \r\nand desertification' of the Working Group II contribution to the \r\nIPCC Sixth Assessment Report are dedicated to the memory of \r\nRebecca Harris, who was one of the Lead Authors."


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"The chapter on Africa of the Working Group II Contribution to \r\nthe Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change (IPCC), is dedicated to the memory of Bob \r\nScholes who was one of the Review Editors for the chapter."


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"Bob, one of the world's leading climate change scientists, was a \r\nProfessor of Systems Ecology, a Director of the Global Change \r\nInstitute and a Distinguished Professor at the University of \r\nthe Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa. Known for \r\nhis towering intellect and insatiable curiosity, Bob published \r\nwidely in the fields of savanna ecology, earth observation \r\nand global change. As a well-respected member of the global \r\nresearch community he played a major role in the IPCC as a Lead \r\nAuthor and Co-ordinating Lead Author during the third, fourth \r\nand fifth assessment cycles and as Co-Chair of the IPBES Land \r\nDegradation and Ecosystem Assessment. He was also a leading \r\nfigure in African scientific circles and undertook multidisciplinary \r\nresearch to support policy development, risk assessment and \r\ndevelopment planning in South Africa and on the continent. "


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"Bec was the Director of the Climate Futures Program at the Univer\u0002sity of Tasmania. This award-winning team is globally recognised \r\nfor its impacts and adaptation work including for the skiing and \r\nwine industries, biosecurity threats to agriculture, and what cli\u0002mate change meant for Tasmanian fire management. Bec helped \r\nboth government and industry partners better assess their expo\u0002sure to climate risk, and develop adaptation solutions. A highlight \r\nis the work that she launched in 2020: Australia's Wine Future: A \r\nClimate Atlas. Bec oversaw this multidisciplinary climate model\u0002ling and adaptation project (2016-2020) involving 15 researchers \r\nfrom six organisations, bringing national recognition to her work. "


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"Prior to starting her PhD studies relatively late in life, Bec worked \r\nin invertebrate and botanical biodiversity assessment, island \r\nbiogeography and disturbance ecology. In the short decade-long \r\nresearch career, Bec authored 66 publications, won numerous \r\nresearch contracts and consultancy projects and in 2016 was \r\nawarded a prestigious Humboldt Fellowship. "


id: a7f77921c5d8a88e3f2c72fcc5e620fa
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"Bob was acutely aware of the need to build a more equitable \r\nand just society and was always generous with his knowledge \r\nand wisdom. He will be remembered as a remarkable role model, \r\ninspirational teacher and a thoughtful mentor to both students \r\nand colleagues. He was a son of African soil and dedicated \r\nmuch of his life to preserving Africa's natural heritage for future \r\ngenerations. But he was also at home anywhere on Earth - truly \r\na person of the planet. Bob lived life to its fullest, as was evident \r\nin his love of gourmet cooking. "


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"Bec also supervised many honours and PhD students over the \r\nlast decade and was a mentor and sponsor for many early career \r\nresearchers. She was particularly passionate about supporting \r\nwomen in science. She was an inspiring lecturer and was also \r\ncommitted to enhancing community climate literacy as an avenue \r\nfor making change. She had a talent for translating the complex \r\nscience work she undertook for non-expert audiences in a way \r\nthat was clear and impactful."


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"Bob's loss is felt deeply by all who knew him, and he will be \r\nremembered as a multi-talented and passionate scientist who \r\nmotivated everyone to avoid complacency, think critically and to \r\nuse their knowledge to improve the world. "


id: a784cdce0df3969a0e74f266b28c911c
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"Drafting Contributing Authors: Rita Adrian (Germany), Marlies Craig (South Africa), \r\nFrode Degvold (Norway), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Katja Frieler (Germany), Ali Jamshed (Germany/\r\nPakistan), Joanna McMillan (German/Australia), Reinhard Mechler (Austria), Mark New (South \r\nAfrica), Nicholas P. Simpson (South Africa/Zimbabwe), Nicola Stevens (South Africa)"


id: 87632b34d8a15965c23c8cbb0efdaae6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation \r\nand Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, \r\nS. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, \r\nNY, USA, pp. 3-33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001."


id: a22e80c4b3a46768818052c871f0f4f2
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"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group II (WGII) contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of \r\nthe IPCC1\r\n. The report builds on the WGII contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC, three Special Reports2, and the Working \r\nGroup I (WGI) contribution to the AR6 cycle."


id: 652d09fa695d18c99e134cba626e30e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity3\r\n, and human societies (Figure  SPM.1) and integrates \r\nknowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences than earlier IPCC assessments. The assessment of climate \r\nchange impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall \r\nunsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanisation, human demographic shifts, social and \r\neconomic inequalities and a pandemic."


id: 6406b6f8148ac7869e9743dc7f3061f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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"The scientific evidence for each key finding is found in the 18 chapters of the underlying report and in the 7 cross-chapter papers as well as the \r\nintegrated synthesis presented in the Technical Summary (hereafter TS) and referred to in curly brackets {}. Based on scientific understanding, key \r\nfindings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language4\r\n. The WGII \r\nGlobal to Regional Atlas (Annex I) facilitates exploration of key synthesis findings across the WGII regions."


id: eba1a90ecddc02ab912a3eaaf2a33817
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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content:
"The concept of risk is central to all three AR6 Working Groups. A risk framing and the concepts of adaptation, vulnerability, exposure, resilience, \r\nequity and justice, and transformation provide alternative, overlapping, complementary, and widely used entry points to the literature assessed \r\nin this WGII report."


id: 1377d8cd41b0d4d6f73ded8eb35f8a50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Across all three AR6 working groups, risk5\r\n provides a framework for understanding the increasingly severe, interconnected and often irreversible \r\nimpacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human systems; differing impacts across regions, sectors and communities; and \r\nhow to best reduce adverse consequences for current and future generations. In the context of climate change, risk can arise from the dynamic \r\ninteractions among climate-related hazards6\r\n (see Working Group I), the exposure7 and vulnerability8 of affected human and ecological systems. \r\nThe risk that can be introduced by human responses to climate change is a new aspect considered in the risk concept. This report identifies 127 \r\nkey risks9\r\n. {1.3, 16.5}"


id: 138d03c3786476555fa9193ad40a368e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"The vulnerability of exposed human and natural systems is a component of risk, but also, independently, an important focus in the literature. \r\nApproaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since previous IPCC assessments. Vulnerability is widely understood to differ \r\nwithin communities and across societies, regions and countries, also changing through time."


id: 9d9bace9aeace2444a413bc7debb1340
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Adaptation10 plays a key role in reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation in ecological systems includes autonomous \r\nadjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. In human systems, adaptation can be anticipatory or reactive, as well as incremental "


id: 6e0529dde1143cbc6bf2ec1b11deed52
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"and/ or transformational. The latter changes the fundamental attributes of a social-ecological system in anticipation of climate change and its \r\nimpacts. Adaptation is subject to hard and soft limits11."


id: ea10a03586f0bdbbc84a40d62eb7c84
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content:
"Resilience12 in the literature has a wide range of meanings. Adaptation is often organized around resilience as bouncing back and returning to \r\na previous state after a disturbance. More broadly the term describes not just the ability to maintain essential function, identity and structure, \r\nbut also the capacity for transformation."


id: 8f1d2f1485647c254446c5ad5bd25503
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"This report recognises the value of diverse forms of knowledge such as scientific, as well as Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in \r\nunderstanding and evaluating climate adaptation processes and actions to reduce risks from human-induced climate change. AR6 highlights \r\nadaptation solutions which are effective, feasible13, and conform to principles of justice14. The term climate justice, while used in different ways in \r\ndifferent contexts by different communities, generally includes three principles: distributive justice which refers to the allocation of burdens and \r\nbenefits among individuals, nations and generations; procedural justice which refers to who decides and participates in decision-making; and \r\nrecognition which entails basic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures and perspectives."


id: d59c03ada04cc8a5c08f6c8725aad7a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an action reduces vulnerability and climate-related risk, increases resilience, and avoids maladaptation15."


id: 4ec796d873ebb5a76455fc7e807acea5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"This report has a particular focus on transformation16 and system transitions in energy; land, ocean, coastal and freshwater ecosystems; urban, \r\nrural and infrastructure; and industry and society. These transitions make possible the adaptation required for high levels of human health and \r\nwell-being, economic and social resilience, ecosystem health17, and planetary health18 (Figure SPM.1). These system transitions are also important \r\nfor achieving the low global warming levels (Working Group III) that would avoid many limits to adaptation11. The report also assesses economic \r\nand non-economic losses and damages19. This report labels the process of implementing mitigation and adaptation together in support of \r\nsustainable development for all as climate resilient development20."


id: 7381b3921950757ccff8b2e67ae63c20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content_type: text
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content:
"Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature \r\nincluding that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase \r\n(CMIP5, CMIP6) of the World Climate Research Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from \r\nillustrative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)21 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)22 scenarios, respectively23. \r\nClimate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in AR5 or earlier, or assumed global warming levels, though \r\nsome recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6 exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding "


id: bcebd1c251415c783773e20cf48b1e4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"A common set of reference years and time periods are adopted for assessing climate change and its impacts and risks: the reference \r\nperiod 1850-1900 approximates pre-industrial global surface temperature, and three future reference periods cover the near-term \r\n(2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100). {CCB CLIMATE}"


id: 237026582dafcb82dbd3118228c660b1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Common levels of global warming relative to 1850-1900 are used to contextualize and facilitate analysis, synthesis and communication \r\nof assessed past, present and future climate change impacts and risks considering multiple lines of evidence. Robust geographical \r\npatterns of many variables can be identified at a given level of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of \r\ntiming when the global warming level is reached. {16.5, CCB CLIMATE, WGI AR6 Box SPM.1, WGI AR6 4.2, WGI AR6 CCB11.1}"


id: e5785457b5a0b1bfc996b5241caac0fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"WGI assessed the increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]24 degC in 2011-2020 above 1850-1900. The estimated \r\nincrease in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003-2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] degC).25\r\nConsidering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach \r\nor exceed 1.5degC in the near-term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario26. { WGI AR6 SPM A1.2, WGI AR6 SPM B1.3, \r\nWGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 CCB 2.3}"


id: 26fc808e854fccb28f775a6ca9809b8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 3525
content:
"Since AR5, the knowledge base on observed and projected impacts and risks generated by climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability has \r\nincreased with impacts attributed to climate change and key risks identified across the report. Impacts and risks are expressed in terms of their \r\ndamages, harms, economic, and non-economic losses. Risks from observed vulnerabilities and responses to climate change are highlighted. \r\nRisks are projected for the near-term (2021-2040), the mid (2041-2060) and long term (2081-2100), at different global warming levels and \r\nfor pathways that overshoot 1.5degC global warming level for multiple decades27. Complex risks result from multiple climate hazards occurring \r\nconcurrently, and from multiple risks interacting, compounding overall risk and resulting in risks transmitting through interconnected systems \r\nand across regions."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Figure SPM.2 |  Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change. Confidence levels reflect uncertainty \r\nin attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be \r\nassessed with higher confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts \r\nacross an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular. "


id: cdfc6552c763c86ce1490231ee02bad6
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content:
"(a) Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts evident at regional and local scales where there is \r\nsufficient literature to make an assessment. Impacts are evident on ecosystem structure, species geographic ranges and timing of seasonal life cycles (phenology) (for methodology \r\nand detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.1)."


id: 8f905409feba866b001feb1db927adcd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"* Mortality projections include demographic trends but do not include future efforts to improve air quality that reduce ozone concentrations."


id: b2f81255d2ef3badaab83cccd6e9d83f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 25673
content:
"Absence of risk diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a \r\nregion. The development of synthetic diagrams for Small Islands, Asia and Central and \r\nSouth America was limited due to the paucity of adequately downscaled climate projections, \r\nwith uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and socioeconomic\r\ncontexts across countries within a region, and the resulting few numbers of impact and risk \r\nprojections for different warming levels."


id: aa2c963d2feb788b01435a9f2d2242e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Figure SPM.3 |  Synthetic diagrams of global and sectoral assessments and examples of regional key risks. Diagrams show the change in the levels of impacts and \r\nrisks assessed for global warming of 0-5degC global surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial period (1850-1900) over the range. "


id: cb6116fafe3523419954fc1c6a7f1b42
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content:
"(a) Global surface temperature changes in degC relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based \r\non past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods \r\nare calculated by adding 0.85degC (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges \r\nare shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 (WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8). Assessments were carried out at the global scale for (b), (c), (d) and (e). "


id: 1857d02082ea97167dba5830472e113e
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content:
"Risks for (c) terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and (d) ocean ecosystems. For c) and d), diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. The transition to a very high \r\nrisk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. "


id: c6eb0210be06eaa55d1f132f397f419d
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content:
"(e) Climate-sensitive human health outcomes under three scenarios of adaptation effectiveness. The assessed projections were based on a range of scenarios, including SRES, \r\nCMIP5, and ISIMIP, and, in some cases, demographic trends. The diagrams are truncated at the nearest whole oC within the range of temperature change in 2100 under three SSP \r\nscenarios in panel (a). "


id: fbbe3b961d6fdba69466a8de98b26463
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Adaptation, in response to current climate change, is reducing climate risks and vulnerability mostly via adjustment of existing systems. Many \r\nadaptation options exist and are used to help manage projected climate change impacts, but their implementation depends upon the capacity and \r\neffectiveness of governance and decision-making processes. These and other enabling conditions can also support climate resilient development \r\n(Section D)."


id: a09dfe4bbf002595ddd797aa2343d94a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Climate resilient development integrates adaptation measures and their enabling conditions (Section C) with mitigation to advance sustainable \r\ndevelopment for all. Climate resilient development involves questions of equity and system transitions in land, ocean and ecosystems; urban \r\nand infrastructure; energy; industry; and society and includes adaptations for human, ecosystem and planetary health. Pursuing climate resilient \r\ndevelopment focuses on both where people and ecosystems are co-located as well as the protection and maintenance of ecosystem function at \r\nthe planetary scale. Pathways for advancing climate resilient development are development trajectories that successfully integrate mitigation and \r\nadaptation actions to advance sustainable development. Climate resilient development pathways may be temporarily coincident with any RCP \r\nand SSP scenario used throughout AR6, but do not follow any particular scenario in all places and over all time."


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content:
"Figure SPM.5 |  Climate resilient development (CRD) is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable \r\ndevelopment. This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting climate resilient pathways) by describing how CRD pathways are the result of cumulative societal choices \r\nand actions within multiple arenas. "


id: 7197f85bc2c07c8c4f10ac2ad64ebd9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Panel (a) Societal choices towards higher CRD (green cog) or lower CRD (red cog) result from interacting decisions and actions by diverse government, private sector \r\nand civil society actors, in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, mitigation and development actions in \r\npolitical, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from local to international levels. Opportunities for climate resilient \r\ndevelopment are not equitably distributed around the world. "


id: d3b535d1922b8690dcbae73c5299f690
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Panel (b) Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways towards higher (green) or lower (red) climate resilient development. \r\nPast conditions (past emissions, climate change and development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher CRD (dashed green line). "


id: b0587e417367df018cf187e50479506f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Panel (c) Higher CRD is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global \r\nwarming levels beyond 1.5degC. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a \r\nnarrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering \r\nthe remaining carbon budgets. (Figure SPM.2, Figure SPM.3) {Figure TS.14b, 2.6, 3.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Box 18.1, \r\nFigure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 Table SPM.2, SR1.5 Figure SPM.1}"


id: f4a70091f801ae4ab0233013a27807b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Pathways towards climate resilient development overcome  jurisdictional and organizational barriers, and  are founded on  societal \r\nchoices that accelerate and deepen key system transitions  (very high confidence). Planning processes and decision analysis tools \r\ncan help identify 'low regrets' options47 that enable mitigation and adaptation in the face of change, complexity, deep uncertainty \r\nand divergent views (medium confidence). {1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, Box 8.7, 9.4, Box 9.2, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, \r\n13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2-17.6, 18.2-18.4, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6, CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB \r\nINDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}"


id: 4184ac51ba13367cb50e56d84fa918cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Contributing Authors: Andres Alegria (Germany/Honduras), Delavane Diaz (USA), Kristie L. Ebi \r\n(USA), Siri H. Eriksen (Norway), Katja Frieler (Germany), Ali Jamshed (Germany/Pakistan), Shobha \r\nMaharaj (Germany/Trinidad and Tobago), Robert McLeman (USA), Joanna McMillan (Germany/\r\nAustralia), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas)"


id: 8f458e3c7cb86ec3b2bd163b29f73901
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"future and aligns efforts globally to prioritise ending extreme poverty, \r\nprotect the planet and promote more peaceful, prosperous and \r\ninclusive societies. Since AR5, several new international conventions \r\nhave identified climate change adaptation and risk reduction as \r\nimportant global priorities for sustainable development, including the \r\nSendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), the finance\u0002oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda, and the New Urban Agenda. The \r\nConvention on Biological Diversity and its Aichi targets recognise that \r\nbiodiversity is affected by climate change, with negative consequences \r\nfor human well-being, but biodiversity, through ecosystem services, \r\ncontributes to both climate change mitigation and adaptation. {1.1.2}"


id: 1fbd138c61c3eb83831b4e20ead6d082
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content:
"This technical summary is structured in five sections: Section A \r\n'Introduction', Section B 'Observed Impacts and Adaptation', Section \r\nC 'Projected Impacts and Risks', Section D 'Contribution of Adaptation \r\nto Solutions' and Section E 'Climate Resilient Development'. Each \r\nsection includes several headline statements followed by several \r\nbullet points providing details about the underlying assessments. All \r\nfindings and figures are supported by and traceable to the underlying \r\nreport, indicated by references {in curly brackets} to relevant sections \r\nof chapters and cross-chapter papers."


id: c4473bc6a89ad5a2bc1cfa6368c368ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28449
content:
"Interdisciplinary climate change assessment, which has played a \r\nprominent role in science-society interactions on the climate issue \r\nsince 1988, has advanced in important ways since AR5. Building on \r\na substantially expanded scientific and technical literature, this AR6 \r\nreport emphasises at least three broad themes. (Figure TS.2) {1.1.4}"


id: 8c1453bc8169ff10aff72bb1cb9b33b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19547
content:
"Since AR5, climate action has increased at all levels of governance, \r\nincluding among non-governmental organisations, small and large \r\nenterprises, and citizens. Two international agreements--the United \r\nNations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris \r\nAgreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development--\r\njointly provide overarching goals for climate action. The 2030 Agenda \r\nfor Sustainable Development, adopted in 2015 by UN member states, \r\nsets out 17 SDGs, frames policies for achieving a more sustainable "


id: 4d4a4c4f708d4b928fb45ef37ee26c1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9590
content:
"First, this AR6 assessment has an increased focus on risk and solution \r\nframeworks. The risk framing can move beyond the limits of single \r\nbest estimates or most likely outcomes and include high-consequence \r\noutcomes for which probabilities are low or in some cases unknown. "


id: 6db6dc8c873d58da6a6e44b64e527033
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"It is very likely that the number of cold\r\ndays and nights has decreased and the \r\nnumber of warm days and nights has \r\nincreased on the global scale. "


id: 9b99294445a3d298788027a6282a22fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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content:
"In this report, the risk framing for the first time spans all three \r\nworking groups, includes risks from the responses to climate change, \r\nconsiders dynamic and cascading consequences, describes with more \r\ngeographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such \r\nrisks over a range of scenarios. The focus on solutions encompasses the \r\ninterconnections among climate responses, sustainable development \r\nand transformation--and the implications for governance across scales \r\nwithin the public and private sectors. The assessment therefore includes \r\nclimate-related decision-making and risk management, climate resilient \r\ndevelopment pathways, implementation and evaluation of adaptation, \r\nand also limits to adaptation and loss and damage. Specific focal \r\nareas reflect contexts increasingly important for the implementation of \r\nresponses, such as cities. {1.3.1, 1.4.4, 16, 17, 18}"


id: a4ecad2fc351f2580618c8f568e7d103
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23518
content:
"progress. In this report, expanded attention is given to inequity in \r\nclimate vulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation \r\nin processes of implementation, unequal and differential impacts \r\nand climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature has also \r\nbeen increasingly accompanied by attention to and incorporation of \r\nIndigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and associated scholars. \r\n{1.3.2, 1.4.1, 17.5.2}"


id: 7af1b4d1ec44ff6e4766f0b262de20d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16933
content:
"Third, AR6 has a more extensive focus on the role of transformation in \r\nmeeting societal goals. {1.5}"


id: a81d743d67f4f7f6bbbdbc06459016b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23962
content:
"Second, emphases on social justice, equity and different forms of \r\nexpertise have emerged. As climate change impacts and implemented \r\nresponses increasingly occur, there is heightened awareness of the \r\nways that climate responses interact with issues of justice and social "


id: 8d9fca406aac291dfd0975ddf569ab0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19811
content:
"This box provides an overview of key definitions and concepts relevant to the WGII AR6 assessment, with a focus on those updated or \r\nnew since AR5."


id: 965297f33e4539144669df5e32f2011a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Risk in this report is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of \r\nvalues and objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions \r\nbetween climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system. In the context of \r\nclimate change responses, risks result from the potential for such responses not to achieve the intended objective(s) or from potential \r\ntrade-offs or negative side-effects. Risk management is defined as plans, actions, strategies or policies to reduce the likelihood and/or \r\nmagnitude of adverse potential consequences, based on assessed or perceived risks. {1.2.1, Annex II: Glossary}"


id: bf5c55d545288286ffd4db4e596c3d18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27659
content:
"Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend \r\nor disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining \r\nthe capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is an entry point commonly used, although under a wide spectrum \r\nof meanings. Resilience as a system trait overlaps with concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and, thus, risk, and resilience as a \r\nstrategy overlaps with risk management, adaptation and transformation. Implemented adaptation is often organised around resilience \r\nas bouncing back and returning to a previous state after a disturbance. {1.2.1, Annex II: Glossary}"


id: dfda23bb1df48a392470841b29c88c8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32713
content:
"WGI assessed increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]4 degC in 2011-2020 above 1850-1900. The estimated increase \r\nin global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003-2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22]degC).5\r\n Considering \r\nall five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach or exceed \r\n1.5degC in the near-term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario6\r\n. {WGI AR6 SPM A1.2, WGI AR6 SPM B1.3, WGI AR6 \r\nTable SPM.1, WGI AR6 CCB2.3}"


id: f000207d1e8e9f92ea59a27d880790cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35266
content:
"hazards have become more frequent in all world regions, with \r\nwidespread consequences. Regional increases in temperature, aridity \r\nand drought have increased the frequency and intensity of fire. The \r\ninteraction between fire, land use change, particularly deforestation, \r\nand climate change, is directly impacting human health, ecosystem \r\nfunctioning, forest structure, food security and the livelihoods of \r\nresource-dependent communities."


id: e7af7e47023d29130a06cc1455213799
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33950
content:
"This section reports on how worldwide climate change is increasingly \r\naffecting marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem \r\nservices, water and food security, settlements and infrastructure, \r\nhealth and well-being, and economies and culture, especially through \r\ncompound stresses and events. It refers to the increasing confidence \r\nsince AR5 that detected impacts are attributable to climate change, \r\nincluding the impacts of extreme events. It illustrates how compound "


id: 4ac0dbc4dd5caf4388a70a62687d2fcd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 9176
content:
"Figure TS.3 |  Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change. Confidence levels reflect uncertainty in \r\nattribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be \r\nassessed with higher confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts \r\nacross an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular."


id: 5f5cf0dcd35e4feb1bcba7006321bb2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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content:
"ortality projections include demographic trends but do not include future efforts to improve air quality that reduce ozone concentrations."


id: de3dbf550e1b5f03a395ded6b0b74b93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Figure TS.4 |  Synthetic diagrams of global and sectoral assessments and examples of regional key risks. Diagrams show the change in the levels of impacts and \r\nrisks assessed for global warming of 0-5degC global surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial period (1850-1900) over the range."


id: e1f494b7b70ee1a4ce3d67da1e22a296
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"(a) Global surface temperature changes in degC relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based \r\non past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (Box TS.2). Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are \r\ncalculated by adding 0.85degC (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges \r\nare shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 (WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8). Assessments were carried out at the global scale for (b), (c), (d) and (e)."


id: d1f17315eb5570965a6d62d7e99cac19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"For (c) and (d), diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. The transition to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits.\r\n(e) Climate-sensitive human health outcomes under three scenarios of adaptation effectiveness. The assessed projections were based on a range of scenarios, including SRES, \r\nCMIP5, and ISIMIP, and, in some cases, demographic trends. The diagrams are truncated at the nearest whole degC within the range of temperature change in 2100 under three SSP \r\nscenarios in panel (a)."


id: d49a1b15c646ab4190b37a8462f27724
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 30972
content:
"TS.C.3.4 Climate change is projected to increase malnutrition \r\nthrough reduced nutritional quality, access to balanced food \r\nand inequality (high confidence). Increased CO2 concentrations \r\npromote crop growth and yield but reduce the density of important \r\nnutrients in some crops (high confidence) with projected increases in \r\nundernutrition and micronutrient deficiency, particularly in countries \r\nthat currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency (high confidence) \r\nand regions with low access to diverse foods (medium confidence). \r\nMarine-dependent communities, including Indigenous Peoples and \r\nlocal peoples, will be at increased risk of malnutrition due to losses of \r\nseafood-sourced nutrients (medium confidence).  {3.5.3, 5.2.2, 5.4.2, "


id: b8b6bd5487095e72eab67678bd3a0a42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26584
content:
"TS.C.3.3 Climate change will increasingly add significant \r\npressure and regionally different impacts on all components \r\nof food systems, undermining all dimensions of food security \r\n(high confidence). Extreme weather events will increase risks \r\nof food insecurity via spikes in food prices, reduced food diversity \r\nand reduced income for agricultural and fishery livelihoods (high \r\nconfidence), preventing achievement of the UN SDG 2 ('Zero Hunger') \r\nby 2030 in regions with limited adaptive capacities, including Africa, \r\nsmall island states and South Asia (high confidence). With about 2degC \r\nwarming, climate-related changes in food availability and diet quality "


id: d94862251ec596a0ed5ff5fd5a5ed8f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"the risk of food-borne disease outbreaks, including Salmonella and \r\nCampylobacter infections (medium confidence). Warming supports \r\nthe growth and geographical expansion of toxigenic fungi in crops \r\n(medium confidence) and potentially toxic marine and freshwater algae \r\n(medium confidence). Food safety risks in fisheries and aquaculture \r\nare projected through harmful algal blooms (high confidence), \r\npathogens (e.g., Vibrio) (high confidence), and human exposure to \r\nelevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury \r\n(medium confidence). {3.5.5, 3.6.2, 4.5.3, 5.12.4, Box  5.10, 7.3.1, \r\n9.10.2, Figure 9.32, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, \r\n14.5.4, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, CCP6.2.6, CCB MOVING PLATE}"


id: 2673b30f290163e0f500116d961194a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3459
content:
"will triple at 3degC compared to 1.5degC warming, in particular in central \r\nand southern Europe and urban areas (high confidence). {6.2.2, 7.3.1, \r\n8.4.5, 9.10.2, Figure  9.32, Figure  9.35, 10.4.7, Figure  10.11, 11.3.6, \r\n11.3.6, Table 11.14, 12.3.4, 12.3.8, Figure 12.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.23, \r\n14.5.6, 15.3.4, 16.5.2}"


id: b54fb2f5975782df685dab9d61f10d30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.C.6.7 The burden of several non-communicable diseases is \r\nprojected to increase under climate change (high confidence).\r\nCardiovascular disease mortality could increase by 18.4%, 47.8% and \r\n69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5, and \r\nby 16.6%, 73.8% and 134% under RCP8.5 compared to the 1980s \r\n(high confidence). Future risks of respiratory disease associated with \r\naeroallergens and ozone exposure are expected to increase (high \r\nconfidence). {7.3.1, 10.4.7, 11.3.6, 12.3.4, 13.7.1}"


id: 3a28c6aea86600a74b0b4cbc43a36a63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6517
content:
"TS.C.7 Migration patterns due to climate change are difficult \r\nto project as they depend on patterns of population growth, \r\nadaptive capacity of exposed populations and socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment and migration policies (high confidence). In many \r\nregions, the frequency and/or severity of floods, extreme storms \r\nand droughts is projected to increase in coming decades, es\u0002pecially under high emissions scenarios, raising future risk of \r\ndisplacement in the most exposed areas (high confidence). \r\nUnder all global warming levels, some regions that are pres\u0002ently densely populated will become unsafe or uninhabitable, \r\nwith movement from these regions occurring autonomously \r\nor through planned relocation (high confidence). {4.5.7, 7.3.2, \r\nBox 9.8, 15.3.4, CCB MIGRATE}"


id: 70ae98d8e65e73b9f2521d2950cc61e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"TS.C.6.6 Higher temperatures and heavy rainfall events are \r\nprojected to increase rates of water-borne and food-borne \r\ndiseases in many regions (high confidence). At 2.1degC, thousands \r\nto tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are \r\nprojected, mainly in central and east Africa (medium confidence). \r\nMorbidity from cholera will increase in central and east Africa (medium \r\nconfidence), and increased schistosomiasis risk is projected for eastern \r\nAfrica (high confidence). In Asia and Africa, 1degC warming can cause \r\na 7% increase in diarrhoea, an 8% increase in E. coli and a 3% to \r\n11% increase in deaths (medium confidence). Warming increases "


id: 97a7872680e823cf7bea924f4a2ec36f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.C.8.2 Indigenous Peoples and local communities will \r\nexperience changes in cultural opportunities (low to medium \r\nconfidence). Cultural heritage is already being impacted by climate \r\nchange and variability, for example in Africa, Small Island Developing \r\nStates and the Arctic, where heritage sites are exposed to future \r\nclimate change risk (high confidence). Coastal erosion and sea level \r\nrise are projected to affect natural and cultural coastal heritage sites \r\nspread across 36 African countries and all Arctic nations. Frequent \r\ndrought episodes will lower groundwater tables and gradually expose \r\nhighly valued archaeological sites to salt weathering and degradation. \r\nCoastal inundation and ocean acidification will intensify impacts on \r\nsacred sites, including burial grounds, and the corrosion of shipwrecks \r\nand underwater ruins. {3.5.3, 3.5.4, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 4.5.8, 9.12., 2.1.2, \r\n11.4.1, 11.4.2, 13.8.1.3, 13.8.2, Box 13.2, 14.4, CCP6.2.7, CCP2.2}"


id: 496870f64f1bd0f58066141324956214
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"7.2.6, 7.3.2, 15.3.4, 4.6.9, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, 7.3.2, 7.4.5, 8.2.1, Box 8.1, \r\nBox 9.8, CCP 6.3.2, CCB MIGRATE}"


id: 18113aae85d7690e372ff4b883f97119
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
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content:
"TS.C.7.2 Estimates of displacement from rapid-onset extreme \r\nevents exist; however, the range of estimates is large as they \r\nlargely depend on assumptions made about future emissions \r\nand socioeconomic development trajectories (high confidence). \r\nUncertainties about socioeconomic development are reflected in the \r\nwide range of projected population displacements by 2050 in Central \r\nand South America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia due to climate \r\nchange, ranging from 31 million to 143 million people (high confidence). \r\nProjections of the number of people at risk of future displacement \r\nby sea level rise range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions \r\nby the end of this century, depending on the level of warmings and \r\nassumptions about exposure (high confidence). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) \r\n{4.5.7, 7.3.2, 7.3.2, 7.3.2, 9.9.4, CCP2.2.1, CCP2.2.2, CCB MIGRATE, \r\nCCB SLR, Figure AI.42}"


id: 389a3844ae173e0a67bf0fdc4de80721
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6278
content:
"TS.C.8.3 Climate change increases risks of violent conflict, \r\nprimarily intrastate conflicts, by strengthening climate-sensitive \r\ndrivers (medium confidence). Climate change may produce severe \r\nrisks to peace within this century through climate variability and extremes, \r\nespecially in contexts marked by low economic development, high \r\neconomic dependence on climate-sensitive activities, high or increasing \r\nsocial marginalisation and fragile governance (medium confidence). The \r\nlargest impacts are expected in weather-sensitive communities with \r\nlow resilience to climate extremes and high prevalence of underlying \r\nrisk factors (medium confidence). Trajectories that prioritise economic \r\ngrowth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower \r\nconflict risk (medium confidence). {4.5.6, 7.3.3, 16.5.2}"


id: f8239e211d58af57ea8d187e3692fd64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36554
content:
"TS.C.7.3 As climate risk intensifies, the need for planned \r\nrelocations will increase to support those who are unable to \r\nmove voluntarily (medium confidence). Planned relocation will \r\nbe increasingly required as climate change undermines livelihoods, \r\nsafety and overall habitability, especially for coastal areas and small \r\nislands (medium confidence). This will have implications for traditional \r\nlivelihood practices, social cohesion and knowledge systems that have \r\ninherent value as intangible culture as well as introduce new risks for \r\ncommunities by amplifying existing and generating new vulnerabilities \r\n(high confidence). {4.6.8, 15.3.4, 14.4, CCP2.3.5, CCB FEASIB, CCB \r\nMIGRATE}"


id: de47f251b2f9db0a940929f953687d87
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.C.8 Under an inequality scenario (SSP4) by 2030, the number \r\nof people living in extreme poverty will increase by 122 million \r\nfrom currently around 700 million (medium confidence). Future \r\nclimate change may increase involuntary displacement, but \r\nsevere impacts also undermine the capacity of households to use \r\nmobility as a coping strategy, causing high exposure to climate \r\nrisks, with consequences for basic survival, health and well\u0002being (high confidence). The COVID-19 pandemic is expected \r\nto increase the adverse consequences of climate change since \r\nthe financial consequences have led to a shift in priorities and \r\nconstrain vulnerability reduction (medium confidence). {7.3.2, \r\n8.1.1, 8.3.2, 8.4.4, 8.4.5, 9.11.4, Box  9.8, 16, Table  16.9, CCB \r\nCOVID, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING SPECIES}"


id: 683de933ba3de0a113135b57909b2106
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13987
content:
"TS.C.8.1 Even with current, moderate climate change, vulnerable \r\npeople will experience a further erosion of livelihood security \r\nthat can interact with humanitarian crises, such as displacement \r\nand involuntary migration (high confidence) and violence and \r\narmed conflict, and lead to social tipping points (medium \r\nconfidence). Under higher emissions scenarios and increasing \r\nclimate hazards, the potential for societal risks also increases\r\n(medium confidence). Lessons from COVID-19 risk management have \r\nimplications for managing urban climate change risk (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). {4.5.1, 4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.7, 4.5.8, 6.1.1, 6.3, 6.4, 8.2.1, \r\n8.3, 8.4.4, 9.11.4}"


id: b2915f240b81cf8c87aa40805ac011c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25616
content:
"TS.C.9.1 An additional 2.5  billion people are projected to \r\nlive in urban areas by 2050, with up to 90% of this increase \r\nconcentrated in the regions of Asia and Africa (high confidence).\r\nBy 2050, 64% and 60% of Asia's and Africa's population respectively \r\nwill be urban. Growth is most pronounced in smaller and medium\u0002sized urban settlements of up to one million people (high confidence). \r\n{4.5.4, 6.1, 6.1.4, 6.2, 9.9.1, 10.4.6}"


id: 564076024cc0bb0c8a06e40b30e58f0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11055
content:
"TS.C.9.4 The characteristics of coastal cities and settlements \r\nmeans that climate-driven risks to people and infrastructure \r\nin many of them are already high and will get progressively \r\nworse over the 21st century and beyond (high confidence). \r\nThese risks are driven by disproportionately high exposure of multiple \r\nassets, economic activities and large coastal populations concentrated \r\nin narrow coastal zones. Climate change risks, including sea level rise, \r\ninteract in intricate ways with non-climatic drivers of coastal change, \r\nsuch as land subsidence, continued infrastructure development in \r\ncoastal floodplains, the rise of asset values and landward development \r\nadversely impacting coastal ecosystems, to shape future risk in coastal \r\nsettlements (high confidence). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) {3.4.2, 6.2, 6.3, 7.4, \r\n9.9.4, 10, 11.3.5, Box 11.4, 13.6.1, 14.5.5, Box 14.4, 15.3.4, 15.3.4, \r\nCCP7.1, CCP2.2, CCP2.3, CCB SLR}"


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vector_id: 4748
content:
"TS.C.10 Across sectors and regions, market and non-market \r\ndamage and adaptation costs will be lower at 1.5degC compared \r\nto 3degC or higher global warming levels (high confidence). \r\nSome recent estimates of projected global economic damage \r\nfrom climate impacts are higher than previous estimates and \r\ngenerally increase with global average temperature (high \r\nconfidence). However, the spread in the estimates of the \r\nmagnitude of this damage is substantial and does not allow for \r\nrobust range to be established (high confidence). Non-market, \r\nnon-economic damage and adverse impacts on livelihoods will \r\nbe concentrated in regions and populations that are already \r\nmore vulnerable (high confidence). Socioeconomic drivers and \r\nmore inclusive development will largely determine the extent \r\nof this damage (high confidence). {4.4.4, 4.7.5, 9.11.2, 10.4.6, \r\n11.5.2, 13.10.2, 13.10.3, 14.5.8, Box 14.6, 16.5.2, 16.5.3}"


id: 4492eb2098220ebf2fcfe540cda23a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8215
content:
"TS.C.10.2 Estimates of global economic damage generally \r\nincrease non-linearity with warming and some are larger than \r\nprevious estimates (high confidence). Some recent estimates have "


id: 45432b79141ec9b3b509316b48aedd4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8326
content:
"major threats for many areas, such as coastal cities (medium to\r\nhigh confidence). Some compound and cascading impacts occur \r\nlocally, some spread across sectors and socioeconomic and \r\nnatural systems, while others can be driven by events in other \r\nregions, for instance through trade and flows of commodities \r\nand goods through supply chain linkages (high confidence). \r\n(Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) {1.3.1, 2.3, 2.5.5, 6.2, 4.4, 4.5.1, \r\n11.5.1, Box  11.1, 13.10.3, Figure  14.10, 14.5.4, 11.5.1, 11.6, \r\nBox  11.7, Figure Box  11.1.2, Table  11.14, Box  14.5, CCP2.2.5, \r\nCCP6.2.3, CCB EXTREMES, CCB INTEREG}"


id: 833c34a08cf5c861a14356f93e5c1e38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18170
content:
"TS.C.11.1 Escalating impacts of climate change on terrestrial, \r\nfreshwater and marine life will further alter the biomass of \r\nanimals (medium confidence), the timing of seasonal ecological \r\nevents (high confidence) and the geographic ranges of \r\nterrestrial, coastal and ocean taxa (high confidence), disrupting \r\nlife cycles (medium confidence), food webs (medium confidence) \r\nand ecological connectivity throughout the water column \r\n(medium confidence). For example, cascading effects on food webs \r\nhave been reported in the Baltic due to detrimental oxygen levels \r\n(high confidence). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS, Figure TS.10 COMPLEX \r\nRISK) {2.4.3, 2.4.5, 2.5.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 14.5.2, CCP2.2, \r\nCCP5.3.2, WGI AR6 2.3.4}"


id: 8c4504ef71b5b5da9d2f2f0fc5bbc32c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.C.10.3 Even at low levels of warming, climate change will \r\ndisrupt the livelihoods of tens to hundreds of millions of \r\nadditional people in regions with high exposure and vulnerability \r\nand low adaptation in climate-sensitive regions, ecosystems and \r\neconomic sectors (high confidence). If future climate change under \r\nhigh emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong \r\nadaptation measures, losses and damage will likely be concentrated \r\namong the poorest vulnerable populations (high confidence). {8.4.5, \r\n9.11.4, Box 15.2, 16.5.3}"


id: e25848b53fd1ec04aa108c81f7688ce7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33114
content:
"TS.C.10.4 Potential socioeconomic futures, in terms of \r\npopulation, economic development and orientation towards \r\ngrowth, vary widely and these drivers have a large influence on \r\nthe economic costs of climate change (high confidence). Higher \r\ngrowth scenarios along higher warming levels increase exposure to \r\nhazards and assets at risk, such as sea level rise for coastal regions, \r\nwhich will have large implications for economic activities, including \r\nshipping and ports (high confidence). The high sensitivity of developing \r\neconomies to climate impacts will pose increasing challenges to \r\neconomic growth and performance, although projections depend as \r\nmuch or more on future socioeconomic development pathways and \r\nmitigation policies as on warming levels (medium confidence). {9.11.2, \r\n11.4, 13.2.1, 16.5.3, CCB SLR, CWGB ECONOMIC}"


id: 77a2dde45e4d5f1c2f2877fe19a3f150
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16380
content:
"TS.C.10.5 Large non-market and non-economic losses are \r\nprojected, especially at higher warming levels (high confidence). \r\nThis wide range of effects underscore the impact of climate change on \r\nwelfare and the adverse effects on vulnerable populations (medium \r\nconfidence). Including as many of these impacts in decision-making \r\nas possible, and as part of the social cost of carbon, will improve \r\nevaluation of the overall and distributional effects of climate \r\nmitigation and adaptation actions as well as in more comprehensively \r\ninternalising climate impacts. {1.5.1, 4.5.8, 4.7.5, 8.4.1, 8.4.5, Map 8.8, \r\n16.5.2, Box 14.6, CWGB ECONOMIC}"


id: 5cd808a1946c7bb8edd1bcab917cbcee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12124
content:
"TS.C.11.3 Compound hazards increasing with global warming \r\ninclude increased frequency of concurrent heatwaves and \r\ndroughts (high confidence), dangerous fire weather (medium \r\nconfidence) and floods (medium confidence), resulting in \r\nincreased and more complex risks to agriculture, water \r\nresources, human health, mortality, livelihoods, settlements \r\nand infrastructure. Extreme weather events result in cascading and \r\ncompounding risks that affect health and are expected to increase \r\nwith warming (very high confidence). Compound climate hazards \r\ncan overwhelm adaptive capacity and substantially increase damage \r\n(high confidence); for example, heat and drought are  projected to \r\nsubstantially reduce agricultural production, and although irrigation \r\ncan reduce this risk, its feasibility is limited by drought. (Figure TS.10 \r\nCOMPLEX RISK) {4.2.5, 6.2.5, 7.1.3, 7.1.4,7.2.2, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.3, "


id: 5fd7d9f658a77be3452c301ba9f136e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12657
content:
"TS.C.11 Compound, cascading risks and transboundary risks give \r\nrise to new and unexpected types of risks (high confidence). \r\nThey exacerbate existing stressors and constrain adaptation \r\noptions (medium confidence). They are projected to become "


id: 3ee0fe69563a3df67b5020cb185c336a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7276
content:
"confidence). These phenomena exacerbate self-reinforcing feedbacks \r\nbetween emissions from high-carbon ecosystems (which currently store \r\naround 3030-4090 GtC) and increasing global temperatures. Complex \r\ninteractions of climate change, land use change, carbon dioxide fluxes \r\nand vegetation changes, combined with insect outbreaks and other \r\ndisturbances, will regulate the future carbon balance of the biosphere, \r\nprocesses incompletely represented in current Earth system models. \r\nThe exact timing and magnitude of climate-biosphere feedbacks \r\nand potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by large \r\nuncertainty, but studies of feedbacks indicate increased ecosystem \r\ncarbon losses can cause large future temperature increases (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.5.2, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, Figure  2.10, Figure  2.11, Table  2.4, \r\nTable 2.5, Table 2.S. 2, Table 2.S. 4, Table 5.4, Figure 5.29, WGI AR6 5.4}"


id: 48a7de56a3884b596e8e82d16605a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 8807
content:
"confidence), but risk for RFC2 would have transitioned to a high \r\nrisk at 1.5degC and RFC1 would be well into the transition to very \r\nhigh risk (high confidence). Remaining below 2degC warming (but \r\nabove 1.5degC) would imply that risk for RFC3 through RFC5 would be \r\ntransitioning to high, and risk for RFC1 and RFC2 would be transitioning \r\nto very high (high confidence). By 2.5degC warming, RFC1 will be at very \r\nhigh risk (high confidence), and all other RFCs will have begun their \r\ntransitions to very high risk, with medium confidence for RFC2, RFC3 and \r\nRFC4, and low confidence for RFC5. (Table TS.1) {16.6.3, Figure 16.15}"


id: e48ecb6601b6435ca415a64056920a6b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 33437
content:
"TS.C.12.3 While the RFCs represent global risk levels for \r\naggregated concerns about 'dangerous anthropogenic \r\ninterference with the climate system', they represent a great \r\ndiversity of risks, and in reality, there is not one single dangerous \r\nclimate threshold across sectors and regions.  RFC1, RFC2 and \r\nRFC5 include risks that are irreversible, such as species extinction, \r\ncoral reef degradation, loss of cultural heritage or loss of a small island \r\ndue to sea level rise. Once such risks materialise, the impacts would \r\npersist even if global temperatures subsequently declined to levels \r\nassociated with lower levels of risk in an 'overshooting' scenario, for \r\nexample where temperatures increase over 'well below 2degC above \r\npre-industrial' for multi-decadal time spans before decreasing  (high \r\nconfidence). (Figure TS.4, see also TS.C.13) {16.6.3, Figure 16.15}"


id: 6ed075c18f3dba0c0910ab88adc1f228
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 15058
content:
"TS.C.13.3 Extinction of species is an irreversible impact of \r\nclimate change whose risk increases sharply with rises in global \r\ntemperature (high confidence). Even the lowest estimates of species \r\nextinctions (9% lost) are 1000  times the natural background rates \r\n(medium confidence). Projected species extinctions at future global \r\nwarming levels are consistent with projections from AR4, but assessed \r\non many more species with much greater geographic coverage and a \r\nbroader range of climate models, giving higher confidence. (see also \r\nTS.C.1) {2.5.1, Figure 2.6, Figure 2.7, Figure 2.8, CCP1, CCB DEEP}"


id: 9edc97d4edaf93ae019c0497ee3818d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22537
content:
"TS.C.13 Warming pathways that imply a temporary temperature \r\nincrease over 'well below 2degC above pre-industrial' for multi\u0002decadal time spans imply severe risks and irreversible impacts \r\nin many natural and human systems (e.g., glacier melt, loss \r\nof coral reefs, loss of human lives due to heat) even if the \r\ntemperature goals are reached later (high confidence). {2.5.2, \r\n2.5.3, 4.6.1}"


id: 5c7efb01aca8519257c5c82b83373c18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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vector_id: 12069
content:
"TS.C.13.1 Projected warming pathways may entail exceeding \r\n1.5degC or 2degC around mid-century. Even if the Paris temperature \r\ngoal is still reached by 2100, this 'overshoot' entails severe risks \r\nand irreversible impacts on many natural and human systems (e.g., \r\nglacier melt, loss of coral reefs, loss of human life due to heat) (high \r\nconfidence). {2.5, 3.4, 16.6, WGI AR6 SPM}"


id: 25508959c344b02a383b19f54537974c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"TS.C.13.2 Overshoot substantially increases risk of carbon \r\nstored in the biosphere being released into the atmosphere due \r\nto increases in processes such as wildfires, tree mortality, insect \r\npest outbreaks, peatland drying and permafrost thaw  (high "


id: 3514a6b96a2d8a35beb3810a80b332d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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content:
"Table TS.1 |  Updated assessment of risk level transitions for the five reasons for concern (RFC) {16.6.3}"


id: 37a96dcbf4b7eb0eb40f7db6641be15e
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vector_id: 6135
content:
"Adaptation options can be facilitated by actions\r\nwhich increase the solution space such as\r\nconsideration of local knowledge, new regulations \r\nand incentives but also decrease due to climatic \r\nand non-climatic stressors and maladaptation."


id: 387b4f9ef44b5ba1cbe6e6531c3ab3a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:56
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"i. Networks of Protected Areas combined with zoning increase resilience.\r\nii. Assisted migration and evolution might reduce extirpation and extinction.\r\niii. Adaptation and mitigation increase space for nature and benefit society.\r\niv. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and Nature-based Solutions (NbS)."


id: 2b6efeea646451a025dcd3b6cdc2adcc
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vector_id: 4272
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"(a) The frequency of climated-related food production losses in crops, livestocks, fisheries and aquacultures has been increasing over \r\nthe last decades."


id: 4790b3ea7fbb3055759c795291d8c0e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"(b) By the late 21st century the share of the global land area and population* affected by combinations of agricultural, ecological and \r\nhydrological droughts is projected to increase substantially."


id: 375fb57f34556e3414515caf390003b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
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vector_id: 6096
content:
"Most regions have already experienced negative \r\nimpacts on the water cycle and agricultural \r\nproductivity. "


id: 9bfe77c2b70fdf8c3d17848bdd107d06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
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vector_id: 22099
content:
"Current beneficial outcomes, co-benefits with mitigation, and \r\nmaladaptive outcomes of responses and future effectiveness of \r\nadaptation and residual risk under different levels of global \r\nwarming."


id: bef58fdc86fca5205534b8d1ce8c08f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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vector_id: 27600
content:
"The large size of the pie chart and the strong representation of heat waves is caused by the signi\bcant number of deaths from a single event in a single \r\ncountry. This single extreme outlier affected the overall average mortality per event in Asia.\r\n*"


id: 3463e6513b6f00df759f7d2ba9823286
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5659
content:
"poor populations residing in informal settlements are highly vulnerable to climate hazards given their housing characterist\r\nation in marginal lands and high-risk areas."


id: c69b6958668db5fd630e1cceb8eebc95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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vector_id: 28813
content:
"Figure TS.9 URBAN | (a) The regions shown are reflecting the original dataset from UN Habitat and vary from IPCC regions. {6.1.4, 9.9.3, 10.4.6, 12.5.5) (b) Heat is a growing \r\nhealth risk due to increasing urbanization and rising temperature extremes. Within cities the urban heat island effect elevates temperatures further, with some populations in cities \r\nbeing disproportionately at risk including low income communities in informal settlements, children, the elderly, disabled, people who work outdoors and ethnic minorities. The \r\ndata does not consider heatwaves which are also projected to increase and can cause thousands of deaths in higher latitudes. {6.1.4, 7.2.4, 7.3.1, 10.4.6, 13.6.1, Annex I: Global \r\nto Regional Atlas}"


id: 7dbbdd8cf469d5db17be988ed5ca0f06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17357
content:
"Nature-based solutions and social policy as innovative domains of adaptation show how some of the limitations of grey infrastructure can be mediated. A mixture \r\nof the three categories has considerable future scope in adaptation strategies and building climate resilience in cities and settlements."


id: 448b8f27b3b618b38e1da1f1f8b53ca7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"(c) The size of the circle represents the number of people at risk per IPCC region and the colours show the timing of risk based on projected population change and sea level rise \r\nunder SSP2-4.5. Darker colours indicate earlier in setting risks. The left side of the circles shows absolute projected population at risk and the right side the share of the population \r\nin percentage. {Figure 13.6, Figure 15.3, Figure CCP2.4, Annex I: Global to Regional Atlas). (d) The figure is based on Table 6.6 which is an assessment of 21 urban adaptation \r\nmechanisms. Supplementary Material 6.3 provides a detailed analysis including definitions for each component of climate resilient development and the evidences. {6.3.1, 6.3.2, \r\n6.3.3, Table 6.6, SM6.3}"


id: f15e2f8e9ccab5947f227b43aebfc8b1
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content:
"Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK | Compound, cascading and transboundary impacts for humans and ecosystems result from exposure to the complex interactions \r\nof (1) multiple climatic hazards, including with non-climatic stressors (as seen in panels a, b, c, d), (2) multiple vulnerabilities compounding the effect of risks \r\n(as seen in panel a, b, c), and (3) multiple impacts/risks that compound and cascade to spread across sectors and boundaries (panels b, c, d, e, f)"


id: be81ca25c50376944a6307c2de79532e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"(a) Climate and land use change result in cumulative impacts on traditional, semi-nomadic Sami reindeer herding. Impacts cascade due to a lack of access to key ecosystems, \r\nlakes and rivers, thereby increasing costs and threatening traditional livelihoods, food security, cultural heritage, and mental health. {Box 7.1, Figure Box 9.7.1, 13.8.1.2, Box 13.2, \r\nFigure 13.14. Table SM13.7, Figure 16.2, Figure CCP6.7}"


id: 690f1dc25226b7ef777391075ee559ea
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"(b) Risks compound from deforestation, wildfires, urbanization, and climate change in Amazonia impacts biodiversity, livelihoods, medicinal, spiritual, and cultural sites; increasing \r\nmigration patterns, loss of place-based attachments, and culture, causing health problems and mental and emotional distress of vulnerable traditional communities and Indigenous \r\nPeople dependent on the forest ecosystem. {Box 8.7, Figure Box 9.7.1, 12.4, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Figure 16.2}"


id: 14753f71431bd5d57e1ccab424cd7cff
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"(c) Complex pathways from climate hazards to malnutrition in subsistence farming households. The factors involved in and the probable impacts of weather variables on food \r\nyields and of production on malnutrition. {Figure 1.3, Figure 1.4, 5.2.1, 5.2.2, 5.12.3, 5.12.4, Box 5.10, Figure 5.2, 7.2.2, 7.3.1, Figure Box 9.7.1, 13.5.1, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, 16.5.2, \r\n16.5.3, Figure 16.2}"


id: 95e850d24e3a4ea7cab3d2eb3a7b0fe9
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"(d) Risk compounds and amplifies through cascading effects due to interconnectedness of island systems. Loss of marine, coastal, terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services \r\ncan cause submergence of reef islands, increase water insecurity, destroy settlements and infrastructure, degrade health and well-being, reduce economy and livelihoods, and result \r\nin loss of cultural resources and heritage. {15.3.4.9, Figure Box 15.1, Figure 15.5, Figure 16.2}"


id: 4176b38041407e8a5837fdac2612b3d4
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"(e) Climate impacts can cascade through interconnected infrastructure in cities and settlements impacting on social well-being and economic activities, spreading loss and risk \r\nthrough lost economic productivity disrupting the distribution of goods and provision of basic services, spreading widely, into rural places and across international borders as supply \r\nchains, financial investment and remittance flows are disrupted. {6.1.3, 6.2.2, 6.2.4, Figure 6.2, Figure 16.2, Figure CCB INTEREG.1}"


id: 52d11e20bf916fee40aa624f7dffab2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"(f) Cascading, compounding and transboundary impacts on people's mortality and physical and mental health, economic activity, built assets, ecosystems and mass species \r\nmortality and with smoke and ash transported to New Zealand affecting air quality and glaciers, arising from the \"Black Summer\" fires of 2019-2020 which burned over a \r\nfive-month period in eastern and southern Australia. Fire weather is projected to worsen across Australasia. {Figure  1.3, Figure  1.4, 11.3.1.3, Box  11.1, Figure Box  11.1.2, \r\nFigure 16.2, WGI AR6 Figure SPM.9}"


id: 1272663e4cca058df923115c723b7099
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"political commitment, persistent and consistent action across scales of \r\ngovernment and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital \r\nare key (high confidence), even when the benefits are not immediately \r\nvisible. {3.6.5, 4.8, 6.3.5, 11.7, 12.5.7, 13.2.2, 13.8, 13.11, 14.7.2, 15.7, \r\nCCP2.3, CCP2.4, CCP7.5, CCB DEEP, CCB FEASIB, CCB GENDER}"


id: d69f999bb31bc6a32c6e2084e1b5d54e
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content:
"TS.D.2.1 Adaptation limits can be differentiated into hard and \r\nsoft limits. Soft limits are those for which no further adaptation \r\noptions are feasible currently but might become available in the future. \r\nHard limits are those for which existing adaptation options will cease \r\nto be effective and additional options are not possible. Hard limits will \r\nincreasingly emerge at higher levels of warming (high confidence). \r\nAdaptation limits are shaped by constraints that can or cannot be \r\novercome by adaptation actions and by the speed with which climate \r\nimpacts unfold. Evidence and signals of the thresholds at which \r\nconstraints result in limits is still sparse and, in human systems, are \r\nexpected to remain contested even with increasing knowledge (high \r\nconfidence). {2.4.2, 2.6.1, 4.7.4, Box  4.2, Box  4.3, 15.3.4, 15.5.4, \r\n16.4.1, 16.4.2, 16.4.3, CCB EXTREMES}"


id: 7a2fec310093ca110f7699a16fc7c286
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.D.1.7 Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond \r\nshort-term planning to develop long-term, concerted pathways \r\nand enabling conditions for ongoing adaptation to ensure \r\ntimely and effective implementation (high confidence). Inclusive, \r\nequitable and just adaptation pathways are critical for climate resilient \r\ndevelopment. Such pathways require consideration of SDGs, gender \r\nand Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and practices. The \r\nsuccess of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which \r\nadaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context \r\n(high confidence). Long lead times for nature-based and infrastructure \r\nsolutions or planned relocation will require implementation in the \r\ncoming decade to reduce risks in time. To close the adaptation gap, "


id: b24aa0ddca9c883dddd047372aeee178
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25558
content:
"knowledge, focusing on the most vulnerable small-scale producers, \r\nanticipating risks of maladaptation in decision-making for long-lived \r\nactivities, including infrastructure decisions, and the impact of trade\u0002offs and co-benefits (high confidence). (Figure TS.11a) {2.6.5, 2.6.6, \r\n2.6.7, 4.7.6, 4.8, Box 4.8, 5.9.2, Table 5.21, 5.9.2, 5.9.4, 5.13.3, 5.14.2, \r\n5.13.3, 6.2.7, 7.4.2, 8.2.2, 8.3.3, 8.10, 10.6.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.7.12, \r\n15.5.4, Figure 15.7, 17.5.1, 17.5.2, 17.6, CCP1.3, CCP5.4.2, CCP5.4.2, \r\nCCB INTEREG, CCB NATURAL}"


id: 122e81d41ce7a2a49d8359e66029ddeb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 363
content:
"plans have been implemented, and of these fewer still are being \r\ndeveloped and evaluated through consultation and co-production with \r\ndiverse and marginalised urban communities (medium confidence). \r\n{4.6.5, 6.3.3, 6.3.4, 6.3.5, CCP2.3, CCP2.4, 12.5.5, 13.2.2, 13.6.2, \r\n13.11.3, 14.5.5, 15.3.4, 15.5.4, 15.6.1, 16.4.2, CCB FEASIB}"


id: aa483f6e2d5bdf1dbc4818639039f60b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24329
content:
"TS.D.6.7 City and infrastructure planning approaches that \r\nintegrate adaptation into everyday decision-making are \r\nsupported by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: \r\nthe Paris Agreement, SDGs, New Urban Agenda and Sendai \r\nFramework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The 2030 Agenda provides \r\na global framework for city- and community-level action to align \r\nNationally Determined Contributions, national adaptation plans and the "


id: f1c56285a48c92c7ea6592863abd0e9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35551
content:
"will become insufficient to limit risks for marine ecosystems and \r\ntheir services such as food provision, coastal protection and carbon \r\nsequestration (high confidence). (Figure TS.11a) {3.4.2, 3.5.5, 3.6.3, \r\nBox 3.4, 14.5.2, CCB SLR}"


id: 988f117a07215ad450bfc665c172379d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21518
content:
"SDGs. City and local action can complement--and at times go further \r\nthan--national and international interventions (high confidence). \r\nAdaptation policy that focuses on informality and sub-serviced \r\nor inadequately serviced neighbourhoods and supports inclusive \r\nurbanisation by considering the social and economic root causes of \r\nunequal vulnerability and exposure can contribute to the broader goals \r\nof the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and reduce vulnerability \r\nto non-climatic risks, including pandemic risk (high confidence). More \r\ncomprehensive and clearly articulated global ambitions for city and \r\ncommunity adaptation will contribute to inclusive urbanisation by \r\naddressing the root causes of social and economic inequalities that \r\ndrive social exclusion and marginalisation, so that adaptation can \r\ndirectly support the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (high \r\nconfidence). {6.1.1, 6.2.3, 6.4.1, Table 6.2, 12.5.5, 12.5.7}"


id: f85c0ff0dad291bb1da144bb64bf83f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36587
content:
"TS.D.7.3 A wide range of adaptation options exists for reducing \r\nthe ongoing multi-faceted coastal risks in cities and settlements \r\n(very high confidence). A mix of infrastructure, nature-based, \r\ninstitutional and sociocultural interventions can best address the \r\nrisks. The options include vulnerability-reducing measures, avoidance \r\n(e.g., disincentivising developments in high-risk areas and addressing \r\nexisting social vulnerabilities), hard and soft protection (e.g., sea walls, \r\ncoastal wetlands), accommodation (e.g., elevating houses), advance \r\n(e.g., building up and out to sea) and staged, managed retreat (e.g., \r\nlandward movement of people and development) interventions (very \r\nhigh confidence). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) {3.6.2, 3.6.3, 11.3.5, Box 11.6, \r\n12.5.5, 13.2, 14.5.2, 15.5.1, 15.5.2, 15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.5.5, 15.5.7, 17.2, \r\nCCP2.3, CCP2.4, CCB FEASIB, CCB SLR}"


id: 1a69d254358662e6cc61b27ee711501f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1633
content:
"TS.D.7 The ability of societies and ecosystems to adapt to current \r\ncoastal impacts to address present and future coastal risks under \r\nfurther acceleration of sea level rise depends on immediate and \r\neffective mitigation and adaptation actions that keep options \r\nopen to further adapt (high confidence). Adaptation pathways \r\nbreak adaptation planning into manageable steps based on near\u0002term, low-regret actions and aligning adaptation choices with \r\nsocietal goals that account for changing risk, interests and values, \r\nuncertain futures and the long-term commitment to adapting to \r\nsea level rise (high confidence). In charting adaptation pathways, \r\nreconciling divergent  interests and values  is a priority (high \r\nconfidence). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) {11.7.3, 13.10, 14.5.2, Box 14.4, \r\nCCP2.3, CCP2.4, CCB DEEP, CCB SLR}"


id: dbe9dc0efaf1b0fd68569f6416c78210
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32114
content:
"TS.D.7.4 Implementation of coastal adaptation can be delayed \r\nby competing public and private interests, trade-offs among \r\ndevelopment and conservation objectives, legacy development, \r\npolicy inconsistencies, contradictory short- and long-term \r\nobjectives and uncertainties on the timing and scale of impacts \r\n(high confidence). Local government barriers to coastal adaptation \r\ncould lead to courts' becoming de facto decision makers for local \r\nadaptation, and this could be compounded by legislative shortcomings \r\nand fragmentation, insufficient leadership, lack of coordination \r\nbetween governance levels and disagreement about financial \r\nresponsibility (high confidence). {11.7.3, 15.5.6, CCP2.4}"


id: 52b665eed8fb4a81bb16d1f5c2c474eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10471
content:
"TS.D.7.2 Adaptation for coastal ecosystems requires space, \r\nnetworks and sediment to keep up with sea level rise (high \r\nconfidence). With higher warming, faster sea level rise and increasing \r\nhuman pressures due to coastal development, the ability to adapt \r\ndecreases (high confidence). Adaptation options, such as providing \r\nsufficient space for a coastal system to migrate inland, when combined \r\nwith ambitious and urgent mitigation measures, can reduce impacts, \r\nbut they depend on the type of coastline and patterns of coastal \r\ndevelopment (high confidence). With rapid sea level rise, these options "


id: 5273a01c47d275b62664166df1bee0ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10428
content:
"TS.D.7.6 Prospects for addressing climate change compounded \r\ncoastal hazard risk depend on the extent to which societal \r\nchoices, and associated governance processes and practices, \r\naddress the drivers and root causes of exposure and social \r\nvulnerability (very high confidence). Many drivers and root \r\ncauses of coastal risk are historically and institutionally embedded \r\n(very high confidence). When national and local authorities work \r\nwith their communities, sustained risk reduction in the exposure and "


id: 8f25febd4227db2defb2d9809c96c385
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20066
content:
"A significant adaptation gap exists for human health and well-being \r\nand for responses to disaster risks (very high confidence). Most Nation\u0002ally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement from low- and \r\nmiddle-income countries identify health as a priority concern (very high \r\nconfidence). Effective governance institutions, arrangements, funding \r\nand mandates are key for adaptation to climate-related health risks\r\n(high confidence). {4.6.4, 5.12.5, 5.14, 7.4.1, 7.4.2, 7.4.3, Table  7.2, \r\n9.10.3, 10.4.7.3, 11.3.6, 12.5.6, 13.7.2, CCB ILLNESS, CCB COVID}"


id: 214d571e0374a7008a3d9fe1b5d019e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2677
content:
"vulnerability of those most at risk is more likely (high confidence). \r\nDrawing on multiple knowledge systems helps in co-designing and \r\nco-producing more acceptable, effective and enduring responses. \r\nReconciling divergent worldviews, values and interests can unlock the \r\nproductive potential of conflict for transitioning towards pathways \r\nthat foster climate resilient development, generate equitable \r\nadaptation outcomes and remove governance constraints (high \r\nconfidence). Shared understanding and locally appropriate responses \r\nare enabled by deliberate experimentation, innovation and social \r\nlearning (medium confidence). External assistance and government \r\nsupport can enhance community capabilities to reduce coastal hazard \r\nrisk (high confidence). {15.6.1, 17.2, CCP2.4, Table CCP2.1}"


id: 435f35099835415925f5b8fcaf89903d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8008
content:
"TS.D.8 With proactive, timely and effective adaptation, many \r\nrisks for human health and well-being could be reduced and some \r\npotentially avoided (very high confidence). Building adaptive \r\ncapacity through sustainable development and encouraging safe \r\nand orderly movements of people within and between states \r\nrepresent key adaptation responses to prevent climate-related \r\ninvoluntary migration (high confidence). Reducing poverty, \r\ninequity and food and water insecurity and strengthening \r\ninstitutions in particular reduce the risk of conflict and supports \r\nclimate resilient peace (high confidence). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH) \r\n{2.6.4, 4.6.4, Box 4.4, 5.12.5, 5.14, Box 6.3, 7.4.1, 8.4.4, 9.10.3, \r\n10.4.7, 11.3.6, 12.5.6, 12.5.7, Table  12.9, 13.7.2, Figure  13.25, \r\n14.5.6, Table 14.5, CCB ILLNESS}"


id: 4e4fef07123cff83e093264d92121e7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9750
content:
"TS.D.8.1 National planning on health and climate change is \r\nadvancing, but the comprehensiveness of strategies and plans \r\nneed to be strengthened to reduce future risks, and implement\u0002ing action on key health and climate change priorities remains \r\nchallenging (high confidence). The COVID-19 pandemic demon\u0002strated the value of coordinated planning across sectors, safety nets \r\nand other capacities in societies to cope with a range of shocks and \r\nstresses and to alleviate system-wide risks to health (high confidence)."


id: a68dca7f462280d08ea4efe811542da7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23731
content:
"TS.D.8.4 Despite acknowledgement of the importance of \r\nhealth adaptation as a key component, action has been slow \r\nsince AR5 (high confidence). Building climate resilient health \r\nsystems will require multi-sectoral, multi-system and collaborative \r\nefforts at all governance scales (very high confidence). Globally, "


id: 78af4adf0ff64b550f4db407856f3bf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16549
content:
"decision-making may lead to more successful outcomes (medium \r\nconfidence). {4.6.8, 7.4.4, 9.3.1, 12.5.8, 15.5.3, CCP5.4.2, CCB FEASIB, \r\nCCB MIGRATE}"


id: fa998a104a049f738d699a3818036691
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36945
content:
"health systems are poorly resourced in general, and their capacity to \r\nrespond to climate change is weak, with mental health support being \r\nparticularly inadequate (very high confidence). The health sectors in \r\nsome countries have focused on implementing incremental changes \r\nto policies and measures to respond to impacts (very high confidence). \r\nAs the likelihood of dangerous risks to human health continues to \r\nincrease, there is a greater need for transformational changes to \r\nhealth and other systems (very high confidence). This highlights an \r\nurgent and immediate need to address the wider interactions between \r\nenvironmental change, socioeconomic development and human health \r\nand well-being (high confidence). {7.4.1, 7.4.2, 7.4.3, 9.10.3, Box 9.7, \r\n11.3.6.3, 13.7.2, 14.5.6, CCP6.2.6, Figure CCP6.3}"


id: e7fce8169f6bce2231946e72e748e5d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33997
content:
"TS.D.8.8 Meeting SDGs supports adaptive capacity that in turn \r\nsupports individuals, households and community manage climate \r\nrisks and supports peace (high confidence). By addressing vulner\u0002ability, improving livelihoods and strengthening institutions, meeting \r\nthe SDGs reduces the risks of armed conflict and violence (medium \r\nconfidence). Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource \r\nmanagement and environmental peacebuilding, conflict-sensitive \r\nadaptation and climate-sensitive peacebuilding and gender-sensitive \r\napproaches offer potential new avenues to build peace in conflict\u0002prone regions vulnerable to climate change (medium confidence). \r\nHowever, there is currently insufficient evidence on their success and \r\nfurther monitoring and evaluation is required. (Figure  TS.11b) {4.8, \r\n7.4.6, Box 9.9, 16.3.2, CCB GENDER}"


id: cb5def4851848533e2523b77286d8bef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29547
content:
"TS.D.8.5 Financial constraints are the most referenced barrier \r\nto health adaptation, and therefore scaling up financial \r\ninvestments remains a key international priority (very high \r\nconfidence). Financial support for health adaptation is currently less \r\nthan 0.5% of overall dispersed multilateral climate finance projects \r\n(high confidence). This level of investment is insufficient to protect \r\nhuman health and health systems from most climate-sensitive health \r\nrisks (very high confidence). Adaptation financing often does not reach \r\nplaces where the climate sensitivity of the health sector is greatest\r\n(high confidence). {7.4.1, 7.4.2, 7.4.3, 9.10.3}"


id: aa3ff4a2a5a29e6e493cd734b2456fa8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24324
content:
"TS.D.9 Adaptation actions consistent with climate justice address \r\nnear- and long-term risks through decision-making processes \r\nthat attend to moral and legal principles of fairness, equity and \r\nresponsibility including to historically marginalised communities \r\nand that distribute benefits, burdens and risks equitably (high \r\nconfidence). Concepts of justice, consent and rights-based deci\u0002sion-making, together with societal measures of well-being, are \r\nincreasingly used to legitimate adaptation actions and evaluate \r\nthe impacts on individuals and ecosystems, diverse communities \r\nand across generations (medium confidence). Applying these \r\nprinciples as part of monitoring and evaluating the outcomes \r\nof adaptation, particularly during system transitions, provide a \r\nbasis for ensuring that the distribution of benefits and costs are \r\nidentified (medium confidence). {1.4.1, 4.8, 5.10.4, 5.12.3, 6.1.5, \r\n6.3.6, 12.5.7, 14.7.2, 17.5.1, CCB FEASIB, CCB GENDER}"


id: 859d4d36fbaf3393377dbfea94648326
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18558
content:
"TS.D.9.1 Near-term adaptation responses influence future \r\ninequalities, poverty, livelihood security and well-being (high \r\nconfidence). Adaptation and mitigation approaches that exacerbate \r\ninequitable access to resources and fail to address injustice increase \r\nsuffering, including water and food insecurity and malnutrition rates for \r\nvulnerable groups that rely directly or indirectly on natural resources for \r\ntheir livelihoods (high confidence). {1.4.1, 5.12.3, 5.13.3, 6.3.6, 8.6.2, \r\nBox 9.3, 12.5.7, 18.1}"


id: faed51bb0cc4c03ca7f91cd945545ce1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37000
content:
"TS.D.9.2 Under an inequality scenario (SSP4), the number of \r\npeople living in extreme poverty could increase by more than \r\n100  million (medium confidence). There is medium evidence \r\nand low agreement about the adaptation impacts of derivative\u0002based insurance products. Insurance solutions are difficult for low\u0002income groups to access (medium confidence). Formal insurance \r\npolicies come with risks when implemented in a stand-alone manner, \r\nincluding risks of maladaptation (medium confidence). {5.13.5, \r\n5.14.1, 9.8.4, 9.11.4}"


id: b6d7d8178d278751fbf5aa69b73b1c71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26290
content:
"TS.D.8.7 Improving the feasibility of planned relocation and \r\nresettlement is a high priority for managing climate risks (high \r\nconfidence). Residents of small island states do not view relocation \r\nas an appropriate or desirable means of adapting to the impacts of \r\nclimate change (high confidence). Previous disaster- and development\u0002related relocation has been expensive and contentious, posed multiple \r\nchallenges for governments and amplified existing ones and generated \r\nnew vulnerabilities for the people involved (high confidence).  In \r\nlocations where permanent, government-assisted relocation becomes \r\nunavoidable, active involvement of local populations in planning and "


id: 56dae77db3660b3ef58c72c2f3cf29c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11142
content:
"TS.D.9.3 Climate-induced changes are not experienced equally \r\nacross genders, income levels, classes, ethnicities, ages or "


id: 7e346a6b3a49b6a118bffbb0d943f79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17421
content:
"confidence). Water-related adaptation in the energy sector is highly \r\neffective up to 1.5degC but declines with increasing warming (medium \r\nconfidence). {4.6.2, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.3, Figure 4.28, Figure 4.29, 13.6.2, \r\n15.7, 18.3, CCP5.4.2, CCB FEASIB}"


id: 853a9bace6150f653366d13b16cd7254
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18486
content:
"TS.D.11 Deep-rooted transformational adaptation opens new \r\noptions for adapting to the impacts and risks of climate change \r\n(high confidence) by changing the fundamental attributes of \r\na system, including altered goals or values and addressing \r\nthe root causes of vulnerability. AR6 focuses on five system \r\ntransitions to a just and climate resilient future: societal, energy, \r\nland and ocean ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, and \r\nindustrial. These transitions call for transformations in existing \r\nsocial and social-technological and environmental systems that \r\ninclude shifts in most aspects of society. Managing transition \r\nrisk is a critical element of transforming society, increasingly \r\nacknowledging the importance of transparent, informed and \r\ninclusive decision-making and evaluation, including a role for \r\nIndigenous knowledge and local knowledge. (Figure TS.11a, b) \r\n{1.2.1, 1.4.4, 1.5.1, 3.6.4, 4.7.1, 6.1.1, 6.4, Box 6.6, 11.4, 14.7.2, \r\n18.3, Figure 18.3, CCB FEASIB}"


id: 6a1bde096b4f2abc16dc76af2b79d3ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14302
content:
"TS.D.11.4 Adaptation can require system-wide transformation \r\nof ways of knowing, acting and lesson-drawing to rebalance \r\nthe relation between human and nature (high confidence).\r\nIndigenous knowledge and local knowledge, ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation and community-based adaptation are often found together \r\nin effective adaptation strategies and actions and together can generate \r\ntransformative sustainable changes, but they need the resources, legal \r\nbasis and an inclusive decision process to be most effective (medium \r\nconfidence). Governance measures that transparently accommodate \r\nscience and Indigenous knowledge can act as enablers of such co\u0002production. {1.3.3, 2.6.5, 2.6.7, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, 6.4.7, 9.12, Box 9.1, 11.3.3, \r\n11.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.5.1, 11.6, Box 11.3, Box 11.7, 12.5.8, 14.4, Box 14.7, \r\n15.5.4, 15.5.5, 17.2.2, 17.3.1, 17.4.4, CCP6.3.2, CCP 6.6, CCP6.4.3}"


id: 3dbe7a047d8828c668e44cd4c7056051
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7067
content:
"TS.D.11.5 Factors motivating transformative adaptation actions \r\ninclude risk perception, perceived efficacy, sociocultural norms \r\nand beliefs, previous experiences of impacts, levels of education \r\nand awareness (medium confidence). Risk responsibilities across \r\nthe globe are unclear and unevenly defined (high confidence). In \r\nthe face of climate change, assigning risk responsibilities facilitates \r\nupgrading and supporting adaptation efforts (risk governance). There \r\nare at least two contrasting approaches for pursuing deliberate \r\ntransformation: one seeking rapid, system-wide change and the other a \r\ncollection of incremental actions that together catalyse desired system \r\nchanges (medium confidence). {1.5.2, 6.4.7, 17.2.1, 17.2.2, CCP5.4.2}"


id: ee3da9d2f1256c78ce6fa2e94d35a077
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"they are facilitated by appropriate enabling conditions, including ef\u0002fective governance, policy implementation, innovation and climate and \r\ndevelopment finance, which are currently insufficient (high confidence). \r\n{3.6.4, 15.7, 18.3, 18.4, Table 18.5, CCB FEASIB, CWGB URBAN}"


id: d08a733d628f5850de5513d0e4d65adb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30334
content:
"TS.E.1 Climate resilient development implements greenhouse \r\ngas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustainable \r\ndevelopment. With accelerated warming and the intensification \r\nof cascading impacts and compounded risks above 1.5degC \r\nwarming, there is a sharply increasing demand for adaptation \r\nand climate resilient development linked to achieving \r\nSDGs and equity and balancing societal  priorities. There is \r\nonly limited opportunity to widen the remaining solution \r\nspace and take advantage of  many potentially effective, yet \r\nunimplemented, options for reducing society and ecosystem \r\nvulnerability  (high  confidence).  (Figure  TS.2, Figure  TS.9 \r\nURBAN, Figure TS.11a, Figure TS.13) {1.2.3, 1.5.1, 1.5.2, 1.5.3, \r\n2.6.7, 3.6.5, 4.8, Box 4.7, 7.1.5, 7.4.6, 13.10.2, 13.11, 17.2.1, 18.1, \r\nCCB COVID, CCB FINANCE, CCB HEALTH, CCB NATURAL}"


id: a0f831739bb153d4361a3fb90d4cfc73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.E.2 Climate action and sustainable development are \r\ninterdependent. Pursued in an inclusive and integrated manner, \r\nthey enhance human and ecological well-being. Sustainable \r\ndevelopment is fundamental to capacity for climate action, \r\nincluding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as well as \r\nenhancing social and ecological resilience to climate change. \r\nIncreasing social and gender equity is an integral part of the \r\ntechnological and social transitions and transformation towards \r\nclimate resilient development. Such transitions in societal \r\nsystems reduce poverty and enable greater equity and agency \r\nin decision-making. They often require rights-based approaches \r\nto protect the livelihoods, priorities and survival of marginalised \r\ngroups including Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities \r\nand children (high confidence). {2.6.7, 4.8, 6.3.7, 6.4, 6.4.7, 18.2, \r\n18.4, CCB NATURAL}"


id: ba65df438dd501958852799b3317d934
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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vector_id: 26860
content:
"adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development interventions \r\nand how they are distributed among different  populations and \r\ngeographies is essential and challenging but also creates the potential \r\nto pursue synergies that benefit human and ecological well-being (high \r\nconfidence). {1.2.1, 18.1, 18.4}"


id: f8fdd40a5c930af1a8c3ad5246723fd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36683
content:
"TS.E.2.1 Conditions enabling rapid increases and innovative \r\nclimate responses include experience of extreme events or \r\nclimate education influencing perceptions of urgency, together \r\nwith the actions of catalysing agents such as social movements \r\nand technological entrepreneurs. People who have experienced \r\nclimate shocks are more likely to implement risk management \r\nmeasures (high confidence). Autonomous adaptation is very common \r\nin locations where people are more exposed to extreme events \r\nand have the resources and the temporal capacity to act on their \r\nown, for example in remote communities (high confidence).{3.5.2, \r\n4.2.1, 4.6, 4.7.1, 6.4.7, 8.5.2, 9.4.5, 17.4.5, 18.5}"


id: d5b219f270de9a94190bcd652c7ee95d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"TS.E.2.2 A range of policies, practices and enabling conditions \r\naccelerate efforts towards climate resilient development. \r\nDiverse actors including youth, women, Indigenous communities \r\nand business leaders are the agents of societal changes and \r\ntransformations that enable climate resilient development \r\n(high confidence). Greater attention to which actors benefit, fail to \r\nbenefit or are directly harmed by different types of interventions could \r\nsignificantly advance efforts to pursue climate resilient development. \r\n(medium to high confidence). {4.6,  4.7.1,  5.13, 5.14, 6.4.7, 8.4.5, \r\n9.4.5, 17.4, 18.5}"


id: 1145fa8068feb0ada7d9979d34dfb390
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Figure TS.13 |  Climate resilient development is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable \r\ndevelopment. This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting climate resilient pathways) by describing how climate resilient development pathways are the result of \r\ncumulative societal choices and actions within multiple arenas."


id: 207a8b84f976a874b1706f767f77d63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Panel (a) Societal choices towards higher climate resilient development (green cog) or lower climate resilient development (red cog) result from interacting decisions and actions \r\nby diverse government, private sector and civil society actors, in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, \r\nmitigation and development actions in political, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from local to international \r\nlevels. Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world."


id: 55e2f0abb34bc96d01496111b5b42711
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Panel (b) Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways towards higher (green) or lower (red) climate resilient development. \r\nPast conditions (past emissions, climate change and development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher climate resilient development (dashed \r\ngreen line)."


id: c9a83c9ce7e25bc85a06494269597780
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29281
content:
"Panel (c) Higher climate resilient development is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder \r\nto achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5degC. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development \r\nprospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing \r\nclimate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.4) {2.6, 3.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Box 18.1, \r\nFigure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 Table SPM.2, SR1.5 Figure SPM.1}."


id: 520a4545924b7d34d9eb07d8655ee999
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"TS.E.2.4 Gender-sensitive, equity- and justice-based adaptation \r\napproaches, integration of Indigenous knowledge systems \r\nwithin legal frameworks and the promotion of Indigenous \r\nland tenure rights reduce vulnerability and increase resilience \r\n(high confidence).  Integrating adaptation into social protection \r\nprogrammes can build long-term resilience to climate change (high \r\nconfidence). Nevertheless, social protection programmes can increase \r\nresilience to climate related shocks, even if they do not specifically \r\naddress climate risks (high confidence). Climate adaptation actions \r\nare grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDGs is \r\nimportant to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing \r\ngender and other inequities within society, leading to maladaptation \r\npractices  (high confidence).  {3.6.4,  4.8.3, 4.8.4,  9.4.5, Box  9.1, \r\nBox 9.2, Box 9.7, Box 9.8, Box 9.9, Box 9.10, Box 9.11, 14.4, Box 14.1, \r\n17.5.1, CCP6.3, Box CCP6.2 CCB GENDER}"


id: f70f3b03816261c3b7d94cead04ec5c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36380
content:
"TS.E.2.5 Water can be either an enabler or a hindrance to success\u0002ful adaptation and sustainable development. Central to equity \r\nissues about water is that it remains a public good (high con\u0002fidence). Overcoming institutional and financial constraints (govern\u0002ance,  institutions, policies), including path dependency, is among the \r\nmost important requirements enabling effective adaptation in the water \r\nsector (high confidence). Water-related challenges, despite reported \r\nadaptation efforts, indicate limits of adaptation in the absence of water \r\nneutral mitigation action (medium confidence). For some regions, such \r\nas small island states, coastal areas and mountainous regions, water \r\navailability already has the potential to become a hard limit on adapta\u0002tion (limited evidence, medium agreement). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) \r\n{4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.5, 4.8, 4.6, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.6, 6.4 case study 6.1, 15.3.4, \r\nCCP5.2.2}"


id: 5e9a4325c702ad6267836479fb08bb82
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"TS.E.2.7  Enabling environments for adaptation that support \r\nequitable sustainable development are essential for those \r\nwith climate-sensitive livelihoods who are often least able to \r\nadapt and influence decision-making (high confidence). Enabling \r\nenvironments share common governance characteristics, including \r\nthe meaningful involvement of multiple actors and assets, alongside \r\nmultiple centres of power at different levels that are well integrated, \r\nvertically and horizontally (high confidence). Enabling conditions \r\nharness synergies, address moral and ethical choices and divergent \r\nvalues and interests and support just approaches to livelihood \r\ntransitions that do not undermine human well-being (medium \r\nconfidence). Climate solutions for health, well-being and the changing "


id: 696242ce6810063e83d68579a97b6c34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"development (very high confidence). {7.4.1, 7.4.2, 7.4.3, 7.4.4, 7.4.5, \r\n7.4.6, 9.4.5, 13.11.3, 14.4, Box 14.1, 15.5.5, 17.5.1, CCP6.3, CCP6.4, \r\nBox CCP6.2, CCB GENDER}"


id: 6ff648c73f3f6abb2f4b1561d8483702
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15231
content:
"structure of communities are complex and closely interconnected and \r\ncall for new approaches to sustainable development that consider \r\ninteractions between climate, human and socioecological systems \r\nto generate climate resilient development (high confidence). To \r\naddress regionally specific adaptation and developmental needs, five \r\nkey dimensions of climate resilient development are identified for \r\nAfrica: climate finance, governance, cross-sectoral and transboundary \r\nsolutions, adaptation law and climate services and climate change \r\nliteracy  (high confidence). {4.6,  4.8,  6.4.7,  7.1.7,  8.5.1, 8.5.2, \r\n8.6.3, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.3, 9.4.4, 9.4.5, 17.4}"


id: 1f3248eb9813d61d6e6de25091bd51fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2348
content:
"TS.E.2.8 Prevailing ideologies or worldviews, institutions and \r\nsociopolitical relations influence development trajectories \r\nby framing climate narratives and possibilities for action \r\n(medium confidence). The interplay between worldviews and \r\nethics, sociopolitical relations, institutions and human behaviour \r\ninfluence public engagement by individuals and communities. These \r\nopen up opportunities for meaningful engagement and co-production \r\nof pathways towards climate resilient development. The urgency \r\nof climate action is a potential enabler of climate decision-making \r\n(medium confidence). Perceptions of urgency encourage communities, \r\nbusinesses and leaders to undertake climate adaptation and \r\nmitigation measures more quickly and to prioritise climate action (high \r\nconfidence). {1.1.3, 6.4.3, 17.1, 17.4.5, 18.5}"


id: ed979b10c36c7234bf911d4936b29bf8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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vector_id: 34846
content:
"TS.E.3.3 Identifying and advancing synergies and co-benefits of \r\nmitigation, adaptation and SDGs has occurred slowly and unevenly \r\n(high confidence). One area of sustained effort is community-based \r\nadaptation planning actions that have potential to be better integrated \r\nto enhance well-being and create synergies with the SDG ambitions \r\nof leaving no one behind (high confidence). Complex trade-offs and \r\ngaps in alignment between mitigation and adaptation over scale and \r\nacross policy areas where sustainable development is hindered or \r\nreversed also remain (medium confidence). Globally, decisions about \r\nkey infrastructure systems and urban expansion drive risk creation and \r\npotential action on climate change (high confidence). {4.7.6, 6.4.1, 6.4.3, \r\n6.4.4, 6.1, 6.2, 6.2.3, 6.3, 6.3.5.1, 6.4, 7.4.7, 9.3.2, CCB HEALTH, CWGB \r\nBIOECONOMY}"


id: 90aa4974dc690ba50fd6e98b87d39bfa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"TS.E.3.1  Societal resilience is strengthened by improving the \r\nmanagement of environmental resources and ecosystem health, \r\nboosting adaptive capabilities of individuals and communities \r\nto anticipate future risks and minimise them and  removing \r\ndrivers of vulnerability to bring together gender justice, equity, \r\nIndigenous and local knowledge systems and adaptation \r\nplanning (very high confidence).  Societal resilience is  founded \r\non  strengthening local democracy, empowering citizens to shape \r\nsocietal choices to support gender and equity inclusive climate resilient "


id: 908f7d48b55588dfd6b7e9edb845bd1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"TS.E.3.4 Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge are \r\ncrucial for social-ecological system resilience (high confidence). \r\nIndigenous Peoples have been faced with adaptation challenges for \r\ncenturies and have developed strategies for resilience in changing \r\nenvironments that can enrich and strengthen other adaptation \r\nefforts (high confidence). Supporting indigenous self-determination, \r\nrecognising Indigenous Peoples' rights and supporting Indigenous "


id: 328d1926952e8d78d395a4223c176e48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"of national and local economies on natural resources for production \r\nof commodities, weak governance, unequal access to safe water and \r\nsanitation services and a lack of infrastructure and financing, which \r\nreduce adaptation capacity and deepen vulnerability (high confidence). \r\n{3.6.3, 3.6.5, 6.4.3, Figure 6.5, 9.4.1, 11.7, Table 11.14, Table 11.16, \r\n12.1.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2}"


id: c8a58e48ce6d8a56c8c31aa1f8e9f127
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29128
content:
"TS.E.4.4 Adaptive management in response to ecosystem \r\nchange is increasingly necessary, and more so under higher \r\nemissions scenarios (high confidence). Feedback from monitoring \r\nand assessments of the changing state of planetary conditions and \r\nlocal ecosystems enables proactive adaptation to manage risks and \r\nminimise impacts (medium confidence). Integrated sectoral approaches \r\npromoting climate resilience, particularly for addressing the impacts \r\nof extreme events, are key to effective climate resilient development \r\n(medium confidence). {2.6.2, 2.6.3, 2.6.6, 2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, \r\n3.6.5, Box 3.4, 17.3.2, 17.6, CCB EXTREMES, SR1.5, SRCCL, SROCC}"


id: 22c0ef2886b985294d504f906d4c6073
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2921
content:
"TS.E.5.2 Climate governance arrangements and practices are \r\nenabled when they are embedded in societal systems that advance \r\nhuman well-being and planetary health (very high confidence).\r\nCollective action and strengthened networked collaboration, more \r\ninclusive governance, spatial planning and risk-sensitive infrastructure \r\ndelivery will contribute to reducing risks (medium confidence). Enablers \r\nfor climate governance include better practices and legal reforms, \r\nimproving justice, equity and gender considerations, building human \r\nresource capacity, increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms, \r\neducation and climate change literacy programmes, increased access \r\nto climate information, adequately downscaled climate data and \r\nembedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge as well as \r\nintegrating cultural resources into decision-making (high confidence). \r\n{4.8.7, 9.4.5, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, 17.4, 17.6}"


id: 7595314a6541554f6ef78071cb1f77db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16090
content:
"TS.E.4.5 Adaptation cannot prevent all risks to biodiversity and \r\necosystem services (high confidence). Adaptation of conservation \r\nstrategies, by building resilience and planning for unavoidable change, \r\ncan reduce harm but will not be possible in all systems, for example, \r\nfragile ecosystems that reach critical thresholds or tipping points \r\nsuch as coral reefs, some forests, sea ice and permafrost systems. \r\nConservation and restoration will alone be insufficient to protect \r\ncoral reefs beyond 2030 (high confidence) and to protect mangroves \r\nbeyond the 2040s (high confidence). Deep cuts in emissions will be \r\nnecessary to minimise irreversible loss and damage (high confidence). \r\n(Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) {2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.4, 2.6.1, 2.6.6, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, \r\n3.6.3, Figure 3.26, Table SM3.5, Table SM3.6}"


id: 5437c92d675bb8620a06040af38d0f2
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"TS.E.5.1 Prevailing governance efforts have not closed the \r\nadaptation gap (very high confidence), in part due to the \r\ncomplex interconnections between climate and non-climate risk \r\nand the limits of the predominant development and governance \r\npractices (high confidence). Institutional fragmentation, under\u0002resourcing of services, inadequate adaptation funding, uneven \r\ncapability to manage uncertainties and conflicting values and reactive \r\ngovernance across competing policy domains collectively lock in \r\nexisting exposures and vulnerabilities, creating barriers and limits to \r\nadaptation, and undermine climate resilient development prospects \r\n(high confidence). This is amplified by inequity, poverty, population \r\ngrowth and high population density, land use change, especially \r\ndeforestation, soil degradation, biodiversity loss, high dependence "


id: 96ca24f808f9f0f1087a3413908e0bc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"TS.E.5.4 Governance practices for climate resilient development \r\nwill be most effective when supported by formal (e.g., the \r\nlaw) and informal (e.g., local customs and rituals) institutional \r\narrangements providing for ongoing coordination between and \r\nalignment of local to international arrangements across sectors \r\nand policy domains (high confidence). Aligned national and "


id: 130dbc9989aa0e75eae54db72dc52f02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"international legal and policy instruments can support the development \r\nand implementation of adaptation and climate risk management \r\n(medium confidence) and reduce exposure to key risks (high confidence). \r\nDedicated climate change acts can play a foundational and distinctive \r\nrole in supporting effective climate governance, and are drivers of \r\nsubsequent activity in both developing and developed countries (high \r\nconfidence). The transboundary nature of many climate change risks \r\nand species responses will require transboundary solutions through \r\nmulti-national or regional governance processes on land (medium \r\nconfidence) and at sea (high confidence). {3.6.5, Table 3.28, 4.6.2, 4.6, \r\n6.1, 9.4.3, 9.4.4, Box 9.5, 11.7.1, 11.7.3, 17.2.1, 17.3.2, 17.4.2, 17.5.1, \r\n17.6, 18.4.3, CCP5.4.2, CCP6.3, CCB MOVING PLATE}"


id: c3273d5a852226a5222af4d651b2c970
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28278
content:
"TS.E.6 Accelerating climate change and trends in exposure \r\nand vulnerability underscore  the need for rapid action on \r\nthe range of transformational approaches  to expand the \r\nfuture set of effective, feasible and just solutions (very \r\nhigh confidence).  Transformation towards climate resilient \r\ndevelopment is advanced most effectively when  actors work \r\nin inclusive and enabling ways to reconcile divergent interests, \r\nvalues and worldviews, building on information and knowledge \r\non climate risk and adaptation options derived from different \r\nknowledge systems (high confidence).  Taking action now \r\nprovides the foundation for adaptation to current and future \r\nrisks, for large-scale mitigation measures and for effective \r\noutcomes for both.  (Figure  TS.13) {2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.5, \r\n7.2.1, 7.3.1, 8.3.3, 8.3.4, 8.4.5, Figure 8.12, 13.3.2, 13.4.2, 13.8, \r\n13.10.2, 18.3.2, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Table 18.5, CCB FEASIB, \r\nCCB FINANCE, CCB ILLNESS, CCB NATURAL}"


id: 8b30c622bb039bcd27fb9b7587712eda
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19426
content:
"TS.E.6.2  Climate resilient development pathways depend on \r\nhow contending societal interests, values and worldviews are \r\nreconciled through inclusive and  participatory interactions \r\nbetween governance actors in these arenas of engagement \r\n(high confidence). These interactions occur in many different arenas \r\n(e.g., governmental, economic and financial, political, knowledge, \r\nscience and technology, community) that represent the settings, places \r\nand spaces in which societal actors interact to influence the nature \r\nand course of development. For instance, Agenda 2030 highlights \r\nthe importance of multi-level adaptation governance, including non\u0002state actors from civil society and the private sector. This implies the \r\nneed for wider arenas of engagement for diverse actors to collectively \r\nsolve problems and to unlock the synergies between adaptation and \r\nmitigation and sustainable development (high confidence). {18.4.3}"


id: 865bee290b7434892589f29ba636cb44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18679
content:
"TS.E.6.3 Managing transition risk is a critical element of \r\ntransforming society (high confidence). System transitions \r\ntowards climate resilient development pose potential risks \r\nto sectors and regions. This implies managing climate risk in the "


id: 80d31f282a6185de4cca16a7b6a74c9a
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"event that greenhouse gas mitigation efforts over- or underperform. \r\nIn addition, decision makers should be aware of the financial risks \r\nassociated with stranded assets, technology risks and the risks \r\nto social equity or ecosystem health. By acknowledging, assessing and \r\nmanaging such risks, actors will have a greater likelihood of achieving \r\nsuccess in making development climate resilient. Opportunities exist \r\nto promote synergies between sustainable development, adaptation \r\nand mitigation, but trade-offs are likely unavoidable, and managing \r\ntrade-offs and synergies will be important (high confidence). Climate \r\nresilient development risks and opportunities vary by location with \r\nuncertainty about global mitigation effort and future climates relevant \r\nto local planning (high confidence). {4.7.6, 4.8, 17.4, 17.6, 18.4, 18.5}"


id: 285bdb0c77eb02e5023796a21c618190
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"TS.E.6.4 Prospects for transformation towards climate resilient \r\ndevelopment increase when key governance actors work \r\ntogether in inclusive and constructive ways to create a set of "


id: 3c69e8ba5122ca683ab15d8b8849b9bd
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"services; living standards; human health; food security; water \r\nsecurity; and peace and mobility (high confidence) (Table TS.\r\nAII.1). The assessment of these RKRs, which is presented in detail in \r\nChapter 16, has also been used to organise the synthetic assessment \r\nof adaptation options in Chapter 17 and is integrated across various \r\nsections in the TS and SPM. {16.5, SM16.2.1, 17.2.1, 17.5.1}"


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"This supplementary material presents the various aggregated risk \r\nassessments applied in the WGII AR6. This includes the key risks \r\nidentified by all the chapters and the way they can be clustered into \r\nRepresentative Key Risks (RKRs) (Section TS.AII.1), with a summary of \r\nthe severity conditions for these RKRs across climate and development \r\npathways, and the interactions among these risks (Section TS.AII.2). \r\nThe assessment of the five Reasons for Concern (RFC), presented in the \r\niconic 'burning embers', provides a complementary cross-cutting impact \r\nand risk assessment. This approach is described in Section TS.AII.3, along \r\nwith a comparison with the RKRs (Section TS.AII.4). The burning embers \r\nfor the global and cross-cutting RFCs are complemented by similar \r\ndepictions for specific regional and thematic concerns (Section SMTS2.1)."


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"Figure TS.AII.1 presents a synthesis of the severity conditions for RKRs \r\nby the end of this century. As an illustration of the more specific sets of \r\nconditions that result in severe risk for a particular RKR, Figure TS.AII.2 \r\nprovides examples from individual studies of risks to living standards \r\nand the conditions under which they could become severe in terms of \r\naggregate economic output, poverty and livelihoods."


id: e0b922cccaf3cb7944be31c284e07707
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"The assessment of RKRs demonstrates that severe risk is rarely driven \r\nby a single determinant (warming, exposure/vulnerability, adaptation), \r\nbut rather by a combination of conditions that jointly produce the level \r\nof pervasiveness of consequences, irreversibility, thresholds, cascading \r\neffects, likelihood of consequences, temporal characteristics of risk \r\nand systems' ability to respond (medium to high confidence). In other \r\nwords, climate risk is not a matter of changing hazards (or climatic \r\nimpact drivers) only but of the confrontation between changing \r\nhazards and changing socioecological conditions."


id: 34da184277c913638c7f9d651dd4e59a
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"Regional and sectoral chapters of this report identified 127 key \r\nrisks that could become severe under particular conditions of \r\nclimate hazards, exposure and vulnerability (Table SMTS.4). These \r\nkey risks are assessed to be potentially severe, that is, relevant to the \r\ninterpretation of dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the \r\nclimate system, along levels for warming, exposure/vulnerability and \r\nadaptation. Severity has been assessed looking at the magnitude of \r\nadverse consequences, the likelihood of adverse consequences, the \r\ntemporal characteristics of the risk and the ability to respond to the \r\nrisks. Key risks cover scales from the local to the global, are especially \r\nprominent in particular regions or systems and are particularly large for \r\nvulnerable sub-groups, especially low-income populations, and already \r\nat-risk ecosystems (high confidence). {16.5, Table SM16.4}"


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"For most RKRs, potentially global and systemically pervasive risks \r\nbecome severe in the case of high levels of warming, combined with \r\nhigh exposure/vulnerability, low adaptation or both (high confidence). \r\nUnder these conditions there would be severe and pervasive risks to \r\ncritical infrastructure (high confidence), to human health from heat\u0002related mortality, to low-lying coastal areas, aggregate economic \r\noutput and livelihoods (all medium confidence) from armed conflict \r\n(low confidence) and to various aspects of food security (with different "


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"probable systemic vulnerabilities and issues in responding to climatic \r\nhazards (high confidence). {16.6.1}"


id: 5f440b50770d983394e7e68fb60d8e89
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"levels of confidence). Severe risks interact through cascading effects, \r\npotentially causing amplification of RKRs over the course of this \r\ncentury (low evidence, high agreement). (Figure  TS.AII.1) {16.5.2, \r\n16.5.4, Figure 16.10}"


id: 16ccc3a0c84618cc43e925a78f57385
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"Multiple feedbacks between individual risks exist that have the \r\npotential to create cascades and then to amplify systemic risks and \r\nimpacts far beyond the level of individual RKRs (medium confidence), \r\nas also reflected in TS.C.11. These are illustrated in Figure TS.AII.3, \r\npanel A at the RKR level, and in Figure TS.AII.3, panel B at the key risk \r\nlevel."


id: 228dd9b99027559a307c1bf8d43aab85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"For some RKRs, potentially global and systemically pervasive risks \r\nwould become severe even with medium to low warming (i.e., \r\n1.5degC-2degC) if exposure/vulnerability is high and/or adaptation is low \r\n(medium to high confidence). Under these conditions there would be \r\nsevere and pervasive risks associated with water scarcity and water\u0002related disasters (high confidence), poverty, involuntary mobility and \r\ninsular ecosystems and biodiversity hotspots (all medium confidence). \r\n{16.5.2}"


id: a0c7885a978cbc68e36cfe897547699c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"The RFC framework communicates scientific understanding about \r\naccrual of risk in relation to varying levels of warming for five broad \r\ncategories: risk associated with (a) unique and threatened systems, \r\n(b) extreme weather events, (c) distribution of impacts, (d) global \r\naggregate impacts and (e) large-scale singular events. The RFC \r\nframework was first developed during the Third Assessment Report \r\nalong with a visual representation of these risks as 'burning embers' \r\nfigures, and this assessment framework has been further developed \r\nand updated in subsequent IPCC reports including AR5. RFCs reflect \r\nrisks aggregated globally that together inform the interpretation \r\nof dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. \r\n(Figure TS.AII.1) {16.6.2}"


id: 64ee4fbed196834f937fc83957ab1d91
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content:
"All potentially severe risks that apply to particular sectors or groups of \r\npeople at more specific regional and local levels require high exposure/\r\nvulnerability or low adaptation (or both), but they do not necessarily \r\nrequire high warming (high confidence). Under these conditions there \r\nwould be severe, specific risks to low-lying coastal systems, to people \r\nand economies from critical infrastructure disruption, to economic \r\noutput in developing countries and to livelihoods in climate-sensitive \r\nsectors from water-borne diseases, especially in children in low- and \r\nmiddle-income countries, water-related impacts on traditional ways of \r\nlife and involuntary mobility, for example in small islands and low\u0002lying coastal areas (medium to high confidence). {16.5.2}"


id: b7a042fb580a677b915d249e67101404
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content:
"Some severe impacts are already occurring (high confidence) and \r\nwill occur in many more systems before mid-century (medium \r\nconfidence). Tropical and polar low-lying coastal human communities \r\nare experiencing severe impacts today (high confidence), and abrupt \r\necological changes resulting from mass population-level mortality \r\nare already being observed following climate extreme events. Some \r\nsystems will experience severe risks before the end of the century \r\n(medium confidence), for example critical infrastructure affected by \r\nextreme events (medium confidence). Food security for millions of \r\npeople, particularly low-income populations, also faces significant risks \r\nwith moderate to high warming or high vulnerability, with a growing \r\nchallenge by 2050 in terms of providing nutritious and affordable diets \r\n(high confidence). {16.5.2, 16.5.3}"


id: 8586450ced03762ae865c7bc56fea2bd
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content:
"The risk transition or 'ember' diagram illustrates the progression \r\nof socioecological risk from climate change as a function of \r\nglobal temperature change, taking into account the exposure and \r\nvulnerability of people and ecosystems, as assessed by literature-based \r\nexpert judgement. The definitions of risk levels used to make the expert \r\njudgements are presented in Table TS.AII.2 {16.6.2}. Further details are \r\nprovided in Section 16.6.3. (Figure TS.4)"


id: d59fade452cf86e749470d62759eb1a9
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content:
"The RKRs and RFCs are complementary methods that aggregate \r\nindividual risks in different ways, as displayed in Figure  TS.AII.4. \r\nThey have differences in scale, transitions, timing and treatment of \r\nvulnerability and adaptation {16.6.2}"


id: 231e2341a66342b12940b4db6ba0c16c
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"In specific systems already marked by high exposure and vulnerability, \r\nintensive adaptation efforts will not be sufficient to prevent severe \r\nrisks from occurring under high levels of warming (low evidence, \r\nmedium agreement). This is particularly the case for some ecosystems \r\nand water-related risks (from water scarcity and to Indigenous and \r\ntraditional cultures and ways of life). {16.5.2, 16.5.3}"


id: b73b51db729dc1ac0a8046652dacce34
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content:
"Key risks increase the challenges in achieving global sustainability \r\ngoals (high confidence). The greatest challenges will be from risks \r\nto water (RKR-G), living standards (RKR-D), coastal socioecological \r\nsystems (RKR-A) and peace and human mobility (RKR-H). The most \r\nrelevant goals are zero hunger (SDG 2), sustainable cities and \r\ncommunities (SDG 11), life below water (SDG 14), decent work and \r\neconomic growth (SDG 8), and no poverty (SDG 1). Priority areas \r\nfor regions are indicated by the intersection of hazards, risks and \r\nchallenges, where, in the near term, challenges to SDGs indicate "


id: a6e362bc28fa113cde13b84e56c4d048
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content:
"For details and examples, \r\nsee Table 16.A.12 in the \r\nsupplementary information \r\nassociated with Chapter 16."


id: a0bd5ab9672ac63dcefb2bee972e72fe
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content:
"17); 2. Baarsch et al. (2020); 3. Burke et al. (2015); 4. Byers et al. (2018); 5. Carleton and Greenstone (2021); 6. Hallegatte (2017); 7. Hallegatte and Rozenberg (2017); \r\nberg (2018); 9. Hsiang et al. (2017); 10. Jafino (2020); 11. Jafino et al. (2020); 12. Kahn (2019); 13. Kalkuhl (2020); 14. Norden (2014); 15. Roy (2018); 16. World Bank (2"


id: 9f6a3e5e9a32433b16a22863255f7bce
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content:
"Figure TS.AII.2 |  Illustrative examples from individual studies of risks to living standards and the conditions under which they could become severe in terms \r\nof aggregate economic output, poverty and livelihoods. High, medium and low levels of warming, exposure/vulnerability and adaptation are defined as in Figure TS.AII.1. \r\n{Figure 16.9}"


id: 4af55c409dd996d4693e71c79b4a06ff
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"* CIDs are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. lndiced changes are system-depend\u0002ent and can be detrimenlal, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each. {WGI AR6 SPM}"


id: 6e2474c48209341b39bdfc11129cb92f
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"117\r\nFigure  TS.AII.3 |  Illustration of some connections across key risks. Panel A describes all the cross-RKR risk cascades that are described in RKR assessments \r\n(Sections 16.5.2.3.2 to 16.5.2.3.9). Panel B provides an illustration of such interactions at the key risk level, for example from ecological risk to key dimensions for human societies \r\n(building on Section 16.5.2.2 and Table 16.A.4). The arrows are representative of interactions as qualitatively identified; they do not result from any quantitative modelling exercise. \r\n{Figure 16.11}"


id: 8034ed7d4b7aafe1736d4bba7f62c2ea
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vector_id: 17700
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: Rawshan Ara Begum (Malaysia/Australia/Bangladesh) and Robert \r\nJ. Lempert (USA)"


id: 2632a8bb84da0976c44458f97a0d1377
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Ara Begum, R., R. Lempert, E. Ali, T.A. Benjaminsen, T. Bernauer, W. Cramer, X. Cui, K. Mach, G. Nagy, N.C. Stenseth, \r\nR. Sukumar, and P.Wester, 2022: Point of Departure and Key Concepts. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation \r\nand Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, \r\nS. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, \r\nNY, USA, pp. 121-196, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.003."


id: 6df82a957ef5a970b9bdb608acd8bfd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Adaptation plays a key role in reducing risks and vulnerability \r\nfrom climate change. Implementing adaptation and mitigation \r\nactions together with the SDGs helps to exploit synergies, \r\nreduce trade-offs and makes all three more effective. From \r\na risk perspective, limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) \r\nconcentrations reduces climate-related hazards while adaptation and \r\nsustainable development reduce exposure and vulnerability to those \r\nhazards. Adaptation facilitates development, which is increasingly \r\nhindered by impacts and risks from climate change. Development \r\nfacilitates adaptation by expanding the resources and capacity to \r\nreduce climate risks and vulnerability. {1.1.3; 1.5.1; 1.5.3}"


id: 5c7598b6682db7103d350f80953ed5ac
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"The IPCC Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment \r\nReport addresses the challenges of climate action in the context \r\nof sustainable development with a particular focus on climate \r\nchange impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. This chapter frames \r\nthe point of departure and key concepts building on the IPCC's Fifth \r\nAssessment Report (IPCC, 2014a, b), the Special Report on Global \r\nWarming of 1.5degC (IPCC, 2018b), the Special Report on the Ocean and \r\nCryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) (IPCC, 2019b), and the \r\nSpecial Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) (IPCC, 2019a); as \r\nwell as the WGI contributions to the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, \r\n2021a) and complements the contribution of the WGIII Sixth Assessment \r\nReport, which will be published after this report (IPCC, 2022)."


id: 118c1df6fda0c6c06ed6a5d236075674
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"The concepts of risk and risk management have become \r\nincreasingly central to climate change literature, research, \r\npractice and decision making (medium confidence). Risk, defined \r\nas the potential for adverse consequences for human and ecological \r\nsystems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated \r\nwith such systems, provides a framework for understanding the \r\nincreasingly severe, interconnected and often irreversible impacts \r\nof climate change; how these impacts differentially affect different \r\nregions, sectors and populations; how to allocate resources best to \r\nmanage the resulting risks and how to evaluate the responses that \r\nreduce residual risks for current and future generations, economies \r\nand ecosystems. {1.2.1; 1.3.1; 1.4.2}"


id: 6cf1fdc4a0f6d6d2d871ebb80d53531e
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"The concepts of adaptation, vulnerability, resilience and \r\nrisk provide overlapping, alternative entry points for the \r\nclimate change challenge (high confidence). Vulnerability is \r\na component of risk, but also an important focus independently, \r\nimproving understanding of the differential impacts of climate change \r\non people of different gender, race, wealth, social status and other \r\nattributes. Vulnerability also provides an important link between \r\nclimate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Resilience, which can \r\nrefer to either a process or outcome, encompasses not just the concept \r\nof maintaining essential function, identity and structure, but also \r\nmaintaining a capacity for transformation. Such transformations bring \r\nforth questions of justice, power and politics. {1.2.1; 1.4.1}"


id: a96c293affa25c974b6c76cd3f27e4e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Since AR5, climate action has grown in salience worldwide across \r\nall levels of government as well as among non-governmental \r\norganisations, small and large enterprises, and citizens (high \r\nconfidence). At the international level the Paris Agreement and the \r\nSustainable Development Goals (SDGs), along with other targets and \r\nframeworks, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, \r\nthe Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Aichi targets, the Addis \r\nAbaba Action Agenda for finance and the New Urban Agenda, provide \r\noverarching goals and policy context. These agreements also provide \r\npolicy goals used by this IPCC Report to assess climate action across \r\nall levels of society. {1.1.2; 1.4.1; 1.4.3}"


id: 74487040ee6e9ccc5a4d9ec59730fa57
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"IPCC's assessments have grown and changed substantially over \r\nthe last three decades. Compared to earlier IPCC assessments, this \r\nreport emphasises a common risk-solution framing across all three \r\nWorking Groups. This report focuses on solutions for risk reduction and \r\nadaptation; provides more integration across the natural and social \r\nsciences; applies a more comprehensive risk framework; assesses \r\nadaptation directly in the context of sectoral or regional risks; engages \r\nwith different forms of knowledge, including Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local knowledge; and includes an increasing focus on equity and \r\njustice. {1.1.4; 1.4.2; Cross-Chapter Box ADAPT in Chapter 1}"


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content:
"Increasingly, impacts are detected and attributed to the changing \r\nclimate. Improved understanding of deep history (palaeoclimate "


id: 16f59b4f3903c7345df9ec538dfbd142
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"and perspectives. This report considers all three principles in the \r\nassessment of adaptation options and evaluates the extent to which \r\nbetter outcomes are obtained by choosing just ones. Since potential \r\ntrade-offs exist among the principles, adaptation assessments will \r\nin general involve normative judgements, as well as science-based \r\nevidence. {1.4.1.1}"


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"and biotic responses) suggests that past climate changes \r\nhave already caused substantial ecological, evolutionary and \r\nsocioeconomic impacts (high confidence). Many recent impacts \r\nare not detected, due to a shortage of monitoring and robust \r\nattribution analysis (high confidence). Detection and attribution \r\nassessments inform risk assessment by demonstrating the sensitivity \r\nof a system to climate change, and they can inform loss and damage \r\nestimates including those involved in potential climate litigation \r\ncases. Robust detection and attribution methods now exist and play a \r\nsignificant role in increasing awareness and willingness to act among \r\ndecision makers and the general population. {1.3.2.1; Cross-Working \r\nGroup Box ATTRIBUTION in Chapter 1; Cross-Chapter Box  PALEO in \r\nChapter 1}"


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"Concepts of justice and measures of well-being are increasingly \r\nused to evaluate the extent to which climate change adaptation \r\nis equitable and effective (medium confidence). AR6 employs \r\nevaluation frameworks based on both single and multi-criteria to \r\nassess adaptation effectiveness and consistency with principles of \r\njustice. Single criteria frameworks aggregate many attributes into a \r\none number or ranking, often quantified using benefit-cost analysis \r\nor measures of social welfare. Existing decision processes often favour \r\nsuch single criteria, which also correlate well with many measures of \r\nsocial progress and sustainable development.Multi-criteria frameworks \r\nsimultaneously report several different biophysical and socioeconomic \r\nattributes, which provides more information on potential trade-offs \r\nand synergies and can engage with emerging concepts of well-being. \r\n{1.4.1.1; 1.4.1.2}"


id: e232f6126c05e21cbd743968097c464
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Narratives play an important role in communicating climate \r\nrisks and motivating solutions. A narrative describes a chronological \r\nchain of events, often with a premise and conclusions. In the AR6, as \r\nin previous IPCC assessments, climate change scenarios and related \r\nnarratives (also called storylines) are central in the analysis, synthesis \r\nand communication of climate change impacts and of adaptation \r\nand mitigation responses. AR6 employs narratives to describe the \r\nassumptions, evolution and driving forces for the representative \r\nconcentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways \r\n(SSPs) and links these to global warming levels (GWLs) as a complement \r\nto RCPs and SSPs for framing impacts (Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE \r\nin Chapter 1). Narratives can also be enablers of transformation by \r\ncommunicating societal goals and the actions needed to achieve them \r\n{1.2.2; 1.3.3; 1.5.2}"


id: 26ccef08effd316adadd42323cf9d956
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"The concepts of enablers, catalysts and the solution space help \r\nAR6 assess ways to speed the implementation and expand the \r\nrange of adaptation solutions. Many potential solutions have not \r\nyet been implemented, despite the gap between current and adequate \r\nlevels of adaptation. Enablers enhance the feasibility of adaptation \r\noptions and include governance, finance and knowledge. Catalysts \r\naccelerate and motivate the adaptation decision making process. \r\nThe concept of solution space--defined as the space within which \r\nopportunities and constraints determine why, how, when and who \r\nadapts to climate risks--helps this in assessing how human choices \r\nand exogenous changes can expand and contract the set of effective, \r\nfeasible and just solutions. {1.4.2}"


id: 9d267110efcafa78d8cd68c50f2e88d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"AR6 highlights adaptation solutions and the extent to which \r\nthey are successful and adequate at reducing climate risk, \r\nincreasing resilience and pursuing other climate-related societal \r\ngoals. For adaptation, a solution is defined as an option which is \r\neffective, feasible and conforms to principles of justice. Effectiveness \r\nrefers to the extent to which an action is anticipated or is observed to \r\nreduce climate-related risk. Feasibility refers to the extent to which a \r\nmeasure is considered possible and desirable in a particular context. \r\nA successful action is one observed to be effective, feasible and just. \r\nAdequacy refers to a set of solutions that together are sufficient to \r\navoid dangerous, intolerable, or severe climate risks. {1.4}"


id: 84108a5b91ec73a62fe38b4bcaf2f0a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Effective governance, adaptation finance and nature-based \r\nsolutions are important enablers for expanding the solutions \r\nspace and reducing adaptation gaps (high confidence). Actors at \r\nmany scales and in many sectors are already adapting, and can take \r\nadditional and more significant adaptation action. These actors include \r\nindividuals and households, communities, governments at all levels, \r\nprivate sector businesses, non-governmental organisations, religious \r\ngroups and social movements. Many forms of adaptation (depending \r\non the type of climatic risk and societal context) are likely to be more \r\neffective, cost-efficient and potentially also more equitable when \r\norganised collectively. Stronger governance and adaptation finance \r\ncapabilities are usually associated with more ambitious adaptation \r\nplans and more effective implementation of such plans. {1.4.2; 1.5.2}"


id: 25cca76c0e86dc3bdf6f80df4a54ac34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IK and LK) can \r\nprovide important understanding for acting effectively on \r\nclimate risk and can help diversify knowledge that may enrich \r\nadaptation policy and practice (high confidence). Indigenous \r\nPeoples have been faced with adaptation challenges for centuries and \r\nhave developed strategies for resilience in changing environments \r\nthat can enrich and strengthen current and future adaptation efforts. \r\nValuing IK and LK is also important for recognition, a key component \r\nof climate justice. {1.3.2.3}"


id: a1168e56d1f3e7f10202761553004fa2
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content:
"Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of adaptation refers to a \r\nbroad range of activities necessary for tracking adaptation \r\nprogress over time, improving adaptation effectiveness and \r\nsuccessful iterative risk management. Monitoring usually refers \r\nto continuous information gathering, whereas evaluation denotes \r\nmore comprehensive assessments of effectiveness and equity, often \r\nresulting in recommendations for decision makers. In some literatures, \r\nM&E refers solely to efforts undertaken after implementation. In "


id: 94b27515c21a1b475a8e4080b7317b26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"AR6 highlights three principles of climate justice: distributive \r\njustice, procedural justice and recognition. Distributive justice \r\nrefers to the allocation of burdens and benefits among individuals, \r\nnations and generations. Procedural justice refers to who decides and \r\nparticipates in decision making. Recognition entails basic respect and \r\nrobust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures "


id: 7fc1186f0085ba0e1facc5bed7ed4c5c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"other literatures, M&E refers both to efforts conducted before and \r\nafter implementation. Since AR5, a growing literature provides initial \r\ninventories of adaptation plans and implementation worldwide, but \r\ninformation on effectiveness remains scare (high confidence). {1.4.3; \r\nCross-Chapter Box ADAPT in Chapter 1}"


id: ec2413bd377306a387e1571138f636e7
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content:
"Key concepts in this report provide a framework for assessing \r\nthe urgency of climate change adaptation. Adaptation is urgent to \r\nthe extent that soft adaptation limits are currently being approached \r\nor exceeded and that achieving levels of adaptation adequate to \r\naddress these soft limits requires action at a speed and scale faster \r\nthan that represented by current trends (high confidence). In addition, \r\nadaptation is urgent to the extent that any needed expansion of the \r\nfuture solution space requires near-term strengthening and expansion \r\nof enablers, such as governance, finance and information. {1.1.3; 1.4.4; \r\n1.5.1}"


id: 88d1b480908b1787435db48863de55e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"This report employs the climate resilient development concept \r\nto inform co-ordinated implementation of adaptation and mit\u0002igation solutions to support sustainable development for all.\r\nAs a transformation that emerges from the choices of many different \r\nactors, climate resilient development follows no single or preferred \r\npathway and no single best combination of adaptation, mitigation \r\nand sustainable development strategies. All pathways involve complex \r\ntrade-offs and synergies among different actions. The climate resilient \r\ndevelopment concept helps assess the extent to which solutions cur\u0002rently exist to meet societal goals or the extent to which an expanded \r\nsolution space is required. The concept also helps assess the role of \r\nvarious actors, including governments, citizens, civil society, knowledge \r\ninstitutions, media, investors and businesses as well as the need for \r\narenas of engagement in which they can interact. {1.2.3; 1.5.2; 1.5.3}"


id: 7f234ad731494b176914fc7eca6a50f4
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content:
"AR6 highlights the role of transformation in meeting the Paris \r\nAgreement, the SDGs and other policy goals. Transformation, \r\nand the related term transition, are pluralistic concepts, embracing \r\nthe idea of major, fundamental changes in society or natural systems \r\nas opposed to changes that are minor, marginal or incremental. AR6 \r\nhas a particular focus on transformational adaptation, which changes \r\nthe fundamental attributes of a socioeconomic system in anticipation \r\nof climate change and its impacts. AR6 describes transitions in five \r\nsystems: energy, land and ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, \r\nindustrial and societal. In the past, transformations of such scale have \r\nbeen associated not only with technological and economic changes, \r\nbut also with shifts in most aspects of society. {1.2.1.3; 1.4.4; 1.5.1}"


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"population (Gerten et  al., 2019; van Vliet et  al., 2017); technology \r\nreshaping the workplace through automation (Schwab, 2017) and \r\ninformation dissemination through social media (Mavrodieva et  al., \r\n2019; Pearce et al., 2019); and increasing inequalities due to gender, \r\npoverty, age, race and ethnicity (Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter \r\n18). Economic inequality grows within nations even as it has narrowed \r\namong them (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2020). \r\nInternational polycentric governance and non-state actors play an \r\nimportant role (Beck and Mahony, 2018; Sections 1.4.2 and 17.1.2.1). \r\nIn 2020 and 2021, a global pandemic dramatically affected the lives of \r\nmost of the world's population, likely accelerating many of the changes \r\nalready underway (Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7)."


id: 43526292056e8cde09310ae2e0341a4d
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content:
"The point of departure for this AR6 Working Group II report thus lies \r\nin rapid and significant changes in our climate and our world, growing \r\nattentiveness to those changes, a gap between current climate action \r\nand that needed to address policy goals, and a growing literature that \r\nimproves understanding and informs potential responses. This chapter \r\ndefines key concepts and the connections among them useful for \r\ncomprehending and evaluating these changes, the risks they generate, \r\nand options for incremental and transformative solutions that could \r\nreduce climate-related risks, impacts and vulnerability."


id: 4a2322dc7c6626e3d36c193f571c6454
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"Since AR5, governments, businesses and civil society have increasingly \r\nresponded with planning and actions aimed at reducing current and \r\nfuture risks from climate change (Section 1.1.2, Chapters 16 and 17). \r\nConcern with climate change has increasingly motivated actions by \r\ngovernments, the private sector and civil society (Hale et  al., 2021; \r\nSection 18.4.3). As described in this report, however, current climate \r\npolicies and actions alone are not sufficient to meet stated policy goals \r\n(Section 1.1.3) (high confidence)."


id: dddf024c3a9830ac86a9514650331951
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content:
"The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted in 2015 by \r\nUN member states, sets out 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), \r\nframes policies for achieving a more sustainable future and aligns efforts \r\nglobally to prioritise ending extreme poverty, protecting the planet and \r\npromoting more peaceful, prosperous and inclusive societies. SDG 13 \r\n('Climate Action') provides benchmarks to align the Paris Agreement's \r\ncall to 'strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in \r\nthe context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty'. \r\nSince AR5, several new international conventions have identified climate \r\nchange adaptation and risk reduction as important global priorities for \r\nsustainable development, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster "


id: 2ddedf10c6fff85703a2544e7bf22c3a
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content:
"This report addresses the challenges of climate action in the context \r\nof sustainable development. Climate action takes place in a world \r\nalready undergoing some of the most rapid and significant societal \r\nand environmental change in decades (IPCC, 2018b; Box 1.1). These \r\ninclude species and ecosystems loss due to land and sea use change \r\nand pollution (IPBES, 2019a); a growing and urbanising world "


id: 48687d20515a611fb3cfb5ab727ae931
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"actions (Hale et al., 2021). Climate change litigation is gaining salience \r\nfor both governments and corporations as the number of cases filed \r\naround the world grew from 834 between 1986 and 2014 to 1,006 \r\nsince 2015 and growing (Setzer and Higham, 2021)."


id: 7ce3425aaede5613c626d384af416b43
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content:
"Adaptation to climate change plays a key role in reducing climate\u0002related risks along with mitigation and sustainable development. \r\nFrom a risk perspective (Section 1.2), emission reductions and carbon \r\nremoval can both reduce GHG forcing and thus climate-related hazards, \r\nwhile adaptation and sustainable development reduce exposure and \r\nvulnerability to those hazards."


id: 63846ef6d55151b256f60456b4a0d270
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Important synergies and trade-offs exist among adaptation and \r\nmitigation actions (Section  1.5, Chapter 18). Limiting atmospheric \r\nconcentrations of GHGs reduces the extent of adaptation needed to \r\nkeep risk within tolerable levels (Section  1.3, Chapter 16). From a \r\nglobal perspective, understanding adaptation and its limits can inform \r\njudgements about the best balance among levels of mitigation and \r\nadaptation. Such judgements underlie the mitigation goals of the \r\nParis Agreement. From a more local perspective, there is a wide range \r\nof mitigation scenarios (Cross-Chapter Box  CLIMATE in Chapter 1), "


id: 7a9a951b34fc93a7f7a819b15806f647
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content:
"At the national level, over 2,315 laws and policies that address climate \r\nchange now exist in 196 countries and a number of territories as of \r\nMay 2021 (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the \r\nEnvironment and Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, 2021). Sub\u0002national and non-state actors, including city and state governments \r\nand firms and investors, have also increasingly launched climate "


id: b72a008c95cf548ef44781bc89f3214f
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content:
"The IPCC WGII AR6 builds upon key findings of the IPCC AR5, three subsequent special reports and the simultaneous assessment of \r\nthe IPCC WGI and WGIII AR6. The findings and assessment approaches adopted across these reports have implications for the point of \r\ndeparture in the WGII AR6. They include the strong recognition of the urgency for climate action, the enhanced focus on risk and the \r\naim to connect the search for near-term climate solutions with longer-term transitions. Headline conclusions of the IPCC AR5 include the \r\nfollowing, directly quoted (IPCC, 2014a):"


id: ade6475b8e31ca76f400e03c898f62b8
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content:
"Compared to previous IPCC assessments of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, the IPCC WGII AR5 assessment highlighted new data \r\nfor attributing observed climate changes and impacts (Cramer et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014c), a more formal approach to risk (IPCC, 2014c; \r\nJones et al., 2014), and an expanded assessment of adaptation (Chambwera et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014c; Klein et al., 2014a; Mimura et al., \r\n2014; Noble et al., 2014)."


id: e267d318ffef50741e127d3f5dc10ebd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"At the time of the IPCC AR5, very few scientific studies relevant to the impacts of global warming of 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels \r\nwere available. In 2018, the IPCC concluded a Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5degC levels and related global GHG \r\nemission pathways, following an invitation expressed in the Decision text of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015a). The report assessed \r\navailable literature on global warming of 1.5degC and on comparisons between global warming of 1.5degC and 2degC above pre-industrial \r\nlevels. It also addressed possible pathways for achieving the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement. Key findings from this report include \r\nthe following, directly quoted (IPCC, 2018c):"


id: 16144a3059a8c32923fb9d5893dbf551
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"In 2019, a Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) was published, motivated by the observation that \r\nmany of the world's people most exposed to risks caused by climate change live in the mountains or near the coast. Key findings include \r\nthe following, directly quoted (IPCC, 2019c):"


id: 15e359ee399833151fbaf604294e439c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Also in 2019, IPCC published a Special Report on Climate Change and Land, addressing GHG fluxes in land-based ecosystems, land use \r\nand sustainable land management in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation, desertification, land degradation and food \r\nsecurity. Key findings include the following, directly quoted (IPCC, 2019c):"


id: 3f3a3935c78a3b2a7245b2bfbd432c7c
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"In 2021, IPCC Working Group 1 published its Sixth Assessment Report on The Physical Science Basis. Key findings from the report include \r\nthe following, directly quoted from its Summary for Policymakers (SPM) quoted (IPCC, 2019c):"


id: 337efeb87a5e38291b34fed1c6d5bef6
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content:
"Other assessment processes also inform the IPCC AR6. For example, a recent joint workshop between the Intergovernmental Science\u0002Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and IPCC, the first of its kind, made key observations relevant to the work \r\nof IPCC WGII AR6 (Portner et al., 2021). In this broad context, the workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate \r\nand biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of \r\nhuman society. Key highlights of the workshop include the following, directly quoted from the workshop report:"


id: 67a27641509e39b38592226bc47f261b
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content:
"In response, adaptation efforts have increased significantly since AR5 \r\n(Sections 16.3; 17.2; 17.5.2; Cross-Chapter Box ADAPT in Chapter 1). \r\nAssessing the adequacy and effectiveness of these efforts as called for in \r\nArticle 7 of the Paris Agreement remains challenging (Section 1.3.2.2), \r\nbecause much adaptation is not recorded in the literature and because \r\nassessment depends on judgements of effectiveness (Section 1.4.1.2), \r\njudgements about societal goals including climate justice \r\n(Section  1.4.1.1), and expectations about future GHG concentration \r\npathways and other socioeconomic conditions (Section  16.5, Cross\u0002Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17)."


id: e4fbaa7684dac3457de895a6c9481c53
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"including those which meet or miss the Paris Agreement goals, and \r\novershoot scenarios in which global mean temperature exceed targets \r\nfor several decades before dropping to desired levels. Such scenarios \r\ninform assessments of the level of adaptation that may be required \r\n(Section 1.4; Chapter 17)."


id: 292dced84b5e41301f855c380db9899c
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"Adaptation and sustainable development are also interlinked \r\n(Section 18.1). Adaptation facilitates development, which is hindered \r\nby impacts and risks from climate change. Development facilitates \r\nadaptation by expanding the resources and capacity available to \r\nmanage climate risks. Viewed from a climate justice perspective, some \r\nargue that a more just society is more capable of successful adaptation, \r\nwhile others argue that only adaptation that results in a more just \r\nsociety can be judged successful (Section 1.4.1; Chapter 18)."


id: 966ebfea0632eb3ed2b7081bc29a8804
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content:
"Two concepts--adaptation gaps and limits to adaptation--help frame \r\nthis report's assessment of the extent to which current adaptation \r\nefforts are adequate to meet societal goals. Adaptation gaps are \r\ndefined as 'the difference between actually implemented adaptation \r\nand a societally set goal, determined largely by preferences related to \r\ntolerated climate change impacts and reflecting resource limitations \r\nand competing priorities' (UNEP et  al., 2021). Limits to adaptation \r\ndescribe the extent to which no plausible level of adaptation can meet \r\nsocietal goals (Section 1.4.4). Within the limits, adaptation gaps can be \r\nclosed by increased and more successful adaptation actions. Beyond \r\nthe limits, only mitigation can close adaptation gaps."


id: 26f524504fd1694304322c841bbf03f2
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"Numerous climate-related impacts already cause severe damage in \r\nmany places and are projected to increase in the future (Chapter \r\n16). Adaptation can reduce these risks, often significantly, but limits \r\nto adaptation have already been reached or are being approached \r\nin some sectors and regions (Sections  16.3.1; 16.4). While natural \r\nsystems worldwide are changing in response to climate change, many \r\nare not adapting sufficiently quickly to retain their resilience in the \r\nface of current and projected future climate change (Section 16.4). \r\nFor human systems, numerous lines of evidence suggest that \r\nin many regions and sectors current infrastructure, settlement \r\npatterns, policies, practices and institutions remain inadequate for \r\ncurrent changes in climate conditions (Section 16.2). Inadequate or \r\ninsufficient adaptation to current conditions is called an adaptation \r\ndeficit."


id: 1cc6dcf0c488855cd7fc6d63a14129f
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"Interdisciplinary climate change assessment, which has played a \r\nprominent role in science-society interactions on the climate issue \r\nsince 1988, has advanced in important ways since AR5 (Mitchell et al., \r\n2006; Mach and Field, 2017; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Building on a \r\nsubstantially expanded scientific and technical literature (Burkett et al., \r\n2014; Minx et  al., 2017), this AR6 report emphasises at least three \r\nbroad themes."


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"emphasise such integration, and the chapter teams in the present \r\nreport integrate disciplinary perspectives and also science-policy \r\ninteractions inherent in climate change impacts, adaptation and \r\nvulnerability. There has been increasing real-time assessment of the \r\nassessment process itself, including interpersonal dynamics and how \r\nthey shape key findings (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Additionally, best \r\npractices are being adopted from applied decision and policy analysis, \r\ndecision support and co-production, in order to increase assessment \r\nrelevance and usability for decision making (Hall et al., 2019; Mach \r\net al., 2019). Methods of integration in this report include systematic \r\nreview, meta-analysis, multi-criteria integration and expert elicitation \r\n(see synthesis in Chapter 16). The emphasis on knowledge for action \r\nhas also included the role of public communication, stories and \r\nnarratives within assessment and associated outreach (Section 1.2.2)."


id: 166a9e405a7d4c5bca24b6093c6ce6b1
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"This section introduces key concepts used in this report and the \r\nconnections between them that present different entry points for \r\nunderstanding climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability."


id: 91fd46617fedc1fa89a0a91286f54db7
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content:
"Second, emphases on social justice and different forms of expertise \r\nhave emerged (Sections 1.4.1.1; 17.5.2). As climate change impacts \r\nand implemented responses increasingly occur, there is heightened \r\nawareness of the ways that climate responses interact with issues of \r\njustice and social progress. In this report, there is expanded attention \r\nto inequity in climate vulnerability and responses, the role of power \r\nand participation in processes of implementation, unequal and \r\ndifferential impacts, and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific \r\nliterature has also been increasingly accompanied by attention to and \r\nincorporation of Indigenous knowledge (IK), local knowledge (LK) and \r\nassociated scholars (Section 1.3.2.3; Chapter 12)."


id: 445c1a851bed5512d58be1d7ed0deb9c
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"Many actors from different research and practice communities engage \r\nwith understanding and responding to climate risk. Not surprisingly, \r\nthere thus exist alternative, overlapping and complementary entry \r\npoints to the discussion widely used throughout the literature and this \r\nreport."


id: 40b6c0c75b074dcfe08bef6671418268
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"Third, AR6 has a more extensive focus on the role of transformation in \r\nmeeting societal goals (Section 1.5)."


id: 9acd38805d39c19f19fd79deec45083b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"The concepts of risk and risk management have in recent years \r\nbeen central to climate change research and practice related to \r\nimpacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The concepts provide a \r\nframework for understanding climate change and its increasingly \r\nsevere, interconnected and irreversible impacts. They support the \r\nimplementation of solutions that reduce adverse consequences, pursue \r\nopportunities and enable beneficial outcomes for people, economies \r\nand nature (IPCC, 2014c; IPCC, 2018c). All three AR6 Working Groups \r\nnow apply a common risk framework (IPCC, 2020)."


id: d8357c7000e29cc856c58bb806a5f045
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"To support these three themes, this report assesses literature with \r\nan increasing diversity of topics and geographical areas covered. \r\nThe diversity is encompassed through sectoral and regional chapters \r\n(Chapters 2-15), as well as cross-chapter papers and boxes. The \r\nliterature also increasingly evaluates the lived experiences of climate \r\nchange--the physical changes underway, the impacts for people \r\nand ecosystems, the perceptions of the risks, and adaptation and \r\nmitigation responses planned and implemented. In particular, scientific \r\ncapabilities to attribute individual extreme weather and climate events \r\nto GHG emissions have gone from hypothetical to standard and routine \r\nover the last three decades, and societal perceptions of these events \r\nand their impacts for people and ecosystems are now being studied as \r\nwell (Figure 1.1; Cross-Working Group Box ATTRIBUTION in Chapter 1; \r\nsee synthesis in Chapter 16)."


id: c5cceb822270a31757dd79a09c57c301
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content:
"Additional concepts--adaptation, vulnerability, exposure, resilience \r\nand transformation--also provide important framings for the climate \r\nchange challenge."


id: 7c6d3886c5de1e8d659dafa39341a16
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"Figure 1.2 displays the connections among many of the key concepts \r\nused in this report. This chapter, the Summary for Policymakers, \r\nTechnical Summary and sectoral and regional chapters are organised \r\naround the concepts of risks (Section 1.3), solutions (Section 1.4) and \r\ntransformation (Section 1.5)."


id: 4a1a1d962f931980710cba0d54959ffa
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"Finally, climate change assessment has become increasingly integrative \r\nacross multiple disciplines within the natural and social sciences. \r\nThis report's chapters combine experts across Working Groups \r\nand disciplines, such as natural and social sciences, engineering, \r\nhumanities, law, and business administration. In this assessment cycle, \r\nthe special reports (Allen et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019a; IPCC, 2019b) all "


id: a2c54e787d2d685987124dab3a30e418
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"Key concepts that contribute to an understanding of risk include its \r\ncomponents hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (Section 1.2.1.1); the \r\nrecognition that risks may be complex and cascading (Section 1.3.1.2); \r\nand the reasons for concern framework used to summarise the most "


id: 510271cf72d19c0642bbec1e37c385ea
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"policy-relevant risks (Section 1.3.1.1). Key concepts that contribute to \r\nan understanding of feasible, effective, and just solutions (1.4.1) include \r\nthe enablers of governance, finance and knowledge (Section  1.4.2); \r\nTransformation is supported by systems transitions in energy, land, \r\ninfrastructure, industry and society (Section 1.5.1), which if successful \r\ncan contribute to climate resilient development (Section 1.5)."


id: 4c08c0f97f40bd2a6b3bb5671b03d4fd
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"(Section  1.2.1.3). Resilience (Section  1.3.1.4) is a broad concept, \r\nencompassing both outcomes and processes, an ability to maintain \r\nessential function and an ability to transform."


id: ee33c2c4bf1d5620bcd17f7e5c6b691d
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"The ball and cup diagrams (Holling, 1973) in Figure 1.2 indicate that \r\nthe current coupled human and natural system is not resilient, nor \r\ndoes it meet societal goals of equity, well-being and ecosystem health. \r\nSome types of transformation may prove inevitable (Section  1.5.1), \r\neither a deliberate transformation that results in a more resilient state \r\nconsistent with societal goals or a forced transformation to a system \r\nstate inconsistent with the goals."


id: 27825d9801db338b3c8da3a698478966
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"The centre of Figure 1.2 shows societal goals of equity, health, well\u0002being and climate justice as articulated by the Paris Agreement, SDGs, \r\nand other policies and plans (Section 1.4.1). The limits to adaptation \r\n(Section  1.4.4), potential for maladaptation (Sections  1.4.2; 17.5.2) \r\nand loss and damage (Section  1.4.4.2) present barriers to reaching \r\nthese goals."


id: 57c8e07e5f3824af5a820cea588ce7eb
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"Risk in this report is defined as the potential for adverse consequences \r\nfor human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values \r\nand objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate \r\nchange impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between \r\nclimate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the \r\naffected human or ecological system. In the context of climate change "


id: cb610447ee802be423c7f11340619a7c
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"The concept of vulnerability can provide a unique window into the \r\neffects of climate change on different communities, individuals and \r\necosystems, in particular as human systems are affected by race, \r\ngender, wealth inequalities and other attributes (Section 1.2.1.2). The \r\nconcept of adaptation can provide a unique window into the process \r\nof adjustment to climate change by human and natural systems "


id: cefe1c12e532f76d19083a98fe1f733f
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"in SROCC, IPCC, 2019b). In these circumstances, risk assessment can \r\noccur through tools used for risk management across contexts, such \r\nas insurance, business, social protection, security and policy planning, \r\nand decision making can be iterative and support dynamic adaptive \r\npathways through time (Jones and Preston, 2011; Watkiss et al., 2015; \r\nAven, 2016; see also Section 17.3.2)"


id: 5f95bd984041f465c3df549c8a7cdac
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"responses, risks result from the potential for such responses not \r\nachieving the intended objective(s), or from potential trade-offs or \r\nnegative side effects (see Annex II: Glossary). Risk management is \r\ndefined as plans, actions, strategies or policies to reduce the likelihood \r\nand/or magnitude of adverse potential consequences, based on \r\nassessed or perceived risks (see Annex II: Glossary)."


id: cbc99bf6f316230b012ecfdd568a5720
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Iterative risk management (Vervoort and Gupta, 2018) emphasises \r\nthat anticipating and responding to climate change does not consist \r\nof a single set of judgements at a single point in time, but rather an \r\n'ongoing cycle of assessment, action, reassessment, learning and \r\nresponse (USGCRP, 2018). It is consistent with most approaches \r\napplied for implementing adaptation (Jones and Preston, 2011; \r\nJones et al., 2014). For instance, the Paris Agreement is organised as \r\na polycentric process (see Section 1.4) of iterative risk management \r\nin which national governments pledge to take specific actions. Those \r\nactions are monitored and assessed, and nations asked to update their \r\npledges in light of that assessment."


id: 2bda07e0a9924c063b1b9403722d6434
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Risk framing supports connections with solutions (Jones and Preston, \r\n2011; Mach et al., 2016; Adger et al., 2018). First, risk framing connects \r\nthe present with the future. (Papathoma-Kohle et al., 2016). For instance, \r\nwhether wildfire or drought, recent experiences have demonstrated \r\nlimits to current response capacities relevant to future preparedness \r\n(e.g., evacuation of large communities on tight time frames or water \r\nmanagement simultaneously responsive to intensifying drought and \r\nflooding). Second, risk framing emphasises that uncertainties and \r\ncomplex interactions are integral to decision making (Jones et  al., \r\n2014; Dawson, 2015). The uncertainties include high-impact, low\u0002probability outcomes and deep uncertainties for which core processes \r\nare not understood and meaningful probabilities cannot be applied \r\n(Adler et al., 2016; see also Section 17.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP \r\nin Chapter 17; Chapter 7 in SRCCL, IPCC, 2019a; Cross-Chapter Box 5 "


id: dec5ddd0fc492016fa10d1f9c144c0d0
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"Vulnerability is also a link between the climate risk and disaster risk \r\ncommunities, recognising complementarities and differences between \r\nthese communities. Disaster risk management is the set of processes \r\nthat improve understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction \r\nand transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster \r\npreparedness, response and recovery practices, increasing human security, \r\nwell-being and sustainable development (see Annex II: Glossary). Climate \r\nrisk and disaster risk are increasingly addressed together, bridging the "


id: 51a1e37cd7b163b4cbb5ad98c6003baf
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content:
"emphasises assessment of observed adaptation-related responses to \r\nclimate change, governance and decision making in adaptation, and \r\nthe role of adaptation in reducing key risks and global-scale reasons \r\nfor concern, as well as limits to such adaptation (e.g., Chapters 16 \r\nand 17). The assessment approach includes adaptation needs, options, \r\nplanning and implementation across sectors and regions, as well as \r\nadaptation opportunities, constraints and also limits (Eisenack et al., \r\n2014; Klein et al., 2014b; Oberlack and Eisenack, 2014; Lehmann et al., \r\n2015; Roggero, 2015; Herrmann and Guenther, 2017; Oberlack, 2017; \r\nSieber et al., 2018; Moser et al., 2019b; Capela Lourenco et al., 2019; \r\nThaler et al., 2019; Russel et al., 2020; see also Chapters 16 and 17)."


id: c8304697086a6925f10da0cfd6e6f54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Since AR5, more adaptation has progressed (IPCC, 2014a; Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2016; see also Sections 16.2.5 and 17.2) and the focus of activity \r\nhas expanded to include social, institutional and governance dimensions \r\nbeyond engineered and technical options and to decision processes \r\nbeyond technocratic, linear framings (IPCC, 2014a; see also Chapter 17). \r\nAdaptation includes increasing attention to implementation, M&E and \r\nlearning through time, not just planning processes (Section 17.3 and \r\n17.5.1). On the one hand, an important advance has been recognition \r\nof generalised capacities, such as resources and knowledge, necessary \r\nfor the feasibility of effective adaptation. Adaptation thereby strongly \r\noverlaps with risk management and with the building of resilience and \r\nsustainable development (Chapters 17 and 18)."


id: 3bbd07bf7a808bde36d918615339d5bb
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"In much of the literature, resilience encompasses not just maintaining \r\nessential function, identity and structure, but also maintaining a capacity \r\nfor adaptation, learning and transformation. Since the earliest framings \r\nof resilience around stability and persistence, ecology and allied fields \r\nhave come to recognise that while systems are often persistent in \r\nthe face of disturbance, disturbance also creates opportunity for \r\ntransformation and the emergence of new pathways (Section  1.5.2; \r\nFolke, 2006; Allen and Holling, 2010; Folke et al., 2010; Gelcich et al., \r\n2010; Stockholm Resilience Center, 2015; Doppelt, 2017). Across this \r\nliterature, disturbance is framed as outside the system in question, for \r\nwhich the time frames and spatial scales of disturbances, impacts and \r\nresponses are central to outcomes (Bene et al., 2011; Brown, 2014; \r\nHamborg et al., 2020). Endogenous processes of transformation are "


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"The IPCC assessment of adaptation has evolved through time. The \r\nWGII AR4 included one chapter dedicated to adaptation, the WGII \r\nAR5 expanded to four and the WGII AR6 mainstreams adaptation \r\ncomprehensively throughout the report. Adaptation science is rapidly \r\nevolving, including evaluation of adaptation effectiveness, feasibility, \r\nimplementation and maladaptation, although major knowledge \r\ngaps persist in modelling and analysis (Cross-Chapter Box ADAPT in \r\nChapter 1; Chapter 16; Section 1.4; Holman et al., 2019). The WGII AR6 "


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"presented as emergent, characterised by thresholds and, as a result, \r\nvery difficult to anticipate (Scheffer et al., 2001; Walker and Meyers, \r\n2004; Suding and Hobbs, 2009; Scheffer et  al., 2012; Hughes et  al., \r\n2013; Scheffer et  al., 2015). In the last 5  years (2016-2020), the \r\nconcept of resilience has gained prominence as a core theme in the \r\nclimate change adaptation literature (Nalau and Verrall, 2021)."


id: 442ef7887329ef2721e74200808113ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"The concepts of narratives, storylines, scenarios and pathways play an \r\nimportant role in this report. While distinct concepts, they are inter\u0002related and sometimes confused."


id: 6dac42583dd397f4526282f3b14f2cb3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"A narrative is a story with a chronological order or, when cast in \r\nthe form of an argument, with premises and conclusions (Roe, 1991; \r\nAdger et al., 2001). Narratives enable people to envision what various \r\npotential futures may mean for environments and livelihoods, and in \r\nthis way facilitate the development of scenarios for the future (Miller \r\net al., 2015). Narratives can also play a key role in enabling collective \r\naction (Section 1.5) by helping disparate groups co-create a common \r\nvision of a desirable future and achieve a common understanding of "


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"Scenarios are defined in IPCC reports as plausible descriptions of how \r\nthe future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent \r\nset of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., rate of technological "


id: 94ab3868afdc75930b1796922ca5d176
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"This Cross-Chapter Box sets out common climate dimensions to contextualise and facilitate AR6 WGII analyses, presentation, synthesis \r\nand communication of assessed, observed and projected climate change impacts across WGII chapters and cross-chapter papers. \r\n'Common climate dimensions' are defined as common global warming levels (GWLs), time periods and levels of other variables, as \r\nneeded by WGII authors for consistent communications. The set of climate variable ranges given below was derived from the AR6 WGI \r\nreport and supporting resources, and helps to contextualise and inform the projection of potential future climate impacts and key risks. \r\nThe information enables the mapping of climate variable levels to climate projections and vice versa, with ranges of results provided to \r\ncharacterise the physical uncertainties relevant to assessing climate impacts risk."


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"To explore and investigate climate futures, climate change projections are developed using sets of different input projections. These \r\nconsist of sets of projections of GHG emissions, aerosols or aerosol precursor emissions, land use change, and concentrations designed to \r\nfacilitate evaluation of a large climate space and enable climate modelling experiments. For AR5 (and the Coupled Model Intercomparison \r\nProject (CMIP) 5 climate model experiments), the input projections were referred to as representative concentration pathways (RCPs). \r\nFor AR6 (and the CMIP6 climate model experiments), new sets of inputs are used and referred to as SSP scenarios, where SSP refers to \r\nsocioeconomic assumptions called the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)."


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"The RCPs are a set of four trajectories that span a large radiative forcing range, defined as increased energy input at surface level in Watts \r\nper square metre, ranging from 2.6 W m-2 (RCP2.6) to 8.5 W m-2 (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century, with RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 as \r\nintermediate scenarios, and RCP2.6 a peak and decline scenario reaching 3 W m-2 before 2100. A range of emissions scenarios compatible \r\nwith each specific RCP was also assessed in AR5 (Ciais et al., 2013)."


id: ffd4d7e1b6e71677438958e8bd178181
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"A core set of five SSP scenarios, namely SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, was selected in the AR6 WGI report to fill \r\ncertain gaps identified in the RCPs (see WGI Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 in Chapter 1 (Chen et al., 2021)). The first number in the label is the \r\nparticular set of socioeconomic assumptions driving the emissions and other climate forcing inputs taken up by climate models and the \r\nsecond number is the radiative forcing level reached in 2100. WG1 Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 in Chapter 1 provides a comparison of this \r\ncore set of SSP scenarios with scenarios used in previous reports, with SSP1-1.9 a low overshoot scenario consistent with limiting global \r\naverage warming to 1.5degC, and SSP1-2.6 a scenario consistent with limiting warming to 2degC."


id: 97960090a888e2a42a7cdd1a204cb5cc
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"Also of importance to the impact literature and the WGII report are SSP-RCP combinations, that is, studies that employ climate outcomes \r\nbased on RCPs and socio-economic assumptions based on SSPs. SSPs can be paired with a range of different RCPs because SSPs can be \r\ncombined with mitigation policy assumptions to produce a range of emissions pathways. In addition to the SSPs, there are many other \r\nemissions pathways and societies consistent with any global mean temperature outcome. These represent uncertainty and broad ranges \r\nof possibilities that affect climate change exposure and vulnerability (Rose and and M. Scott, 2020; Rose and Scott, 2018). Furthermore, \r\nthere are large uncertainties in translating emissions scenarios into concentration pathways due to uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle \r\nfeedbacks (Jones et al., 2013; Booth et al., 2017)."


id: 5e782db1bf8560057c6fc41c34b5cdd3
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content:
"The common climate dimensions can be used as a dimension of integration for impact studies in WGII, for example by providing a \r\ncommon framework for comparison of projected impacts for different studies (Figure Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE.1). Moreover, GWL \r\nbands are needed in WGII to map the diverse temperature levels found across WGII's literature. The GWL's also facilitate integration \r\nwith WGIII's global emissions projections categorisation by global mean temperature (WGIII Chapter 3)."


id: ce3d06e8e7bd3cda509986a54069882
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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vector_id: 29966
content:
"Table Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE.1 |  GWL ranges by time periods for CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP6 (SSP) climate projections (20-year averages). Temperature anomalies \r\nrelative to 1850-1900. Full ranges for CMIP raw results (across all models and ensemble runs) and WGI AR6 assessed very likely (5-95%) ranges. Sources: Hauser et al. \r\n(2019); WGI SPM (IPCC, 2021a); Table SPM.1"


id: e15255bb41be24568126d0ab875fbd79
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"To contextualise reported impacts by warming level for the influence of other determinants of risk, where appropriate and feasible (e.g., \r\nlevel of exposure/vulnerability, level of adaptation, time period), common time periods for the past and future can be aligned with WGI's \r\nhistorical and projected time windows. Given differences in available literature, WGII chapters and CCPs (cross-chapter papers) \r\ncontextualise impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as appropriate."


id: c3f685effac342bd48efcbadf49ca82e
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"The revised historical warming rate does not necessarily contribute to a change in timing of estimated impacts. It depends on how \r\nimpacts are calculated relative to climate. Because the revised historical warming results in a redefinition of the 1.5degC GWL relative to \r\nthe modern time period (1995-2014) rather than a different level of overall change (Figure Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE.2 in Chapter 1), \r\nimpacts assessed relative to the modern time period are unaffected. There are, in effect 'old' and 'new' definitions of the 1.5degC GWL with \r\ndifferent levels of impacts, and the impacts assessed for the 'old' 1.5degC GWL now apply to a different level of global warming. However, \r\nthe timing of impacts assessed relative to pre-industrial (e.g., aggregate economic impact estimates), are affected and we are closer to \r\nimpact levels associated with 1.5degC and 2degC."


id: 1f757839ab6e3e2ce12fe8d8a1758559
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"To illustrate with a worked example: in SR1.5, the historical warming between 1850-1900 and the modern period of 2006-2015 was \r\nassessed as 0.87degC, implying that the 1.5degC GWL would be accompanied by impacts associated with 0.63degC warming from the modern \r\nperiod. However, AR6 WGI (Gulev et al., 2021) revised the assessment of warming between 1850-1900 and 2006-2015 to 0.94degC, implying \r\nthat the 1.5degC GWL would be accompanied by a slightly lower level of impacts associated with only 0.56degC warming from the modern \r\nperiod. So, while the redefined 1.5degC GWL would be reached earlier, it would also be accompanied by a lower level of impacts (Figure Cross\u0002Chapter Box CLIMATE.2 in Chapter 1). The impacts associated with the 'old' 1.5degC GWL would now be seen at 1.57degC global warming \r\nrelative to 1850-1900, reached at the time of the 'old' 1.5degC GWL, if the same future level of warming were to be used as in SR1.5."


id: 9783aaf91c2e0bb0103d5f81da638af1
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"However, in addition to this redefinition of the historical warming rate, the assessed future warming in AR6 is also slightly faster than the \r\ncontinuation of reported recent warming used in SR1.5. This means that both the 'old' and 'new' 1.5degC GWLs are projected to be reached \r\nearlier than they would have been using the SR1.5 method. This and the revised historical warming diagnosis contribute approximately \r\nequally to the assessment of 1.5degC global warming being reached about 10 years earlier than projected in SR1.5."


id: 494cfec7b8cf05dc7c5d5b2e082d46f9
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"Central estimates of impacts associated with a specifically defined 1.5degC GWL could therefore be considered to be projected to be\r\nreached approximately 5  years earlier than implied by SR1.5. However, uncertainties in regional climate responses at a given GWL \r\nare large (Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE in Chapter 1, Table CLIMATE.3a) and natural climate variability occurs in parallel with ongoing \r\nwarming, so the potential for impacts higher than central estimates could be a more urgent consideration for risk assessments and \r\nadaptation planning than the earlier projected timing of reaching 1.5degC (high confidence). It should also be noted that individual years \r\nmay exceed 1.5degC above 1850-1900 sooner, but this is not the same as exceedance of the 1.5degC GWL which refers to the 20-year mean."


id: 20c41dc42e973f7bade5662cbeccc018
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"change, prices) and relationships (Annex II: Glossary). Scenarios are \r\nneither predictions nor forecasts but rather 'foresights', which imply \r\nenvisioning challenging futures (Vervoort and Gupta, 2018). Scenarios \r\nare used to provide a view of the potential consequences and implications \r\nof developments and actions in a 'what-if' mode of exploring the future \r\n(AR6 WGIII Section  1.5.1; AR6 WGI Section  1.6.1, Chen et  al., 2021). \r\nThey may be presented as numerical or mental models. Climate change \r\nscenarios are generated by climate modellers to highlight possible \r\nalternative GHG emission pathways and are used to develop and \r\nintegrate projections of emissions and their climate change impacts \r\nand for analysing and contrasting climate policy choices. Cross-Chapter \r\nBox CLIMATE in Chapter 1 describes scenarios used in this report."


id: c18259cdd9af042ebaea669acaad979b
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"Understanding of climate change has advanced in important ways \r\nthat shape the AR6 assessment. This section describes advances in the \r\nunderstanding of the complex nature of climate change risks, the deep \r\nintegration of social sciences, and increased utilisation of IK and LK. \r\nThese multi-faceted dimensions of understanding climate change and \r\nevaluating risks are introduced here."


id: 11aedb79f73fe27a74b876cc89f0d1a8
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"Since AR5, understanding of the nature of climate risk has advanced \r\nsubstantially. AR6 assesses the serious, complex and cascading \r\nclimate risks unfolding across sectors and regions. These risks are \r\nshaped by many societal factors including cultural norms and social \r\npractice, socioeconomic development, underlying physical and social \r\nvulnerability, and societal responses themselves (Section  1.2.1.1). \r\nThroughout, there is increased attention to the important role of \r\ndifferent forms of knowledge, especially IK and LK, in the understanding \r\nand the management of the changing climate."


id: caa19741c3aa25e29a49332b5b0782c7
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content:
"Greater understanding of climate-related risks is emerging; however, \r\nthere are important shortcomings in the information for some regions \r\nand sectors, and for developing versus developed countries. These risks \r\nassume significance in interaction with the cultures, values, ethics, \r\nidentities, experiences, and knowledge systems of affected communities \r\nand societies, as well as their governance, finances, capabilities and "


id: a66129dcd15776036011590395420ad3
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"The key risk assessment conveys increasing urgency given the growing \r\nvisibility of climate change impacts in the current world (Sections 1.1; \r\n16.1). Representative key risks emerging across sectors and regions \r\ninclude risks to coastal socio-ecological systems and terrestrial and \r\nocean ecosystems; risks associated with critical infrastructure, networks \r\nand services; risks to living standards and human health; risks to food \r\nand water security; and risks to peace and migration (Section 16.5). \r\nCompared to the AR5, the emphasis on human dimensions of key \r\nclimate-related risks has continued and increased, for instance, the \r\npotentially severe impacts for cultural heritage (IPCC, 2014c; Pachauri \r\net  al., 2014; see also Section  16.4). These human dimensions are \r\nessential for understanding vulnerability, impacts and risks central to \r\nensuring human well-being, human security, sustainable development \r\nand poverty reduction in a changing climate."


id: c2002749c40c4ccd3d1db41fa9b62941
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"This report evaluates key risks--potentially severe risks--meriting \r\nsociety's full attention globally and regionally across sectors, in order \r\nto inform judgements about dangerous anthropogenic interference \r\nwith the climate system (Oppenheimer et al., 2014; Mach et al., 2016; \r\nsee also Sections 16.1.2; 16.4; WGI Section 1.2.4.1). As described detail \r\nin Chapter 16, evaluation of key risks is based on expert judgement \r\napplied to all relevant lines of evidence, with a focus on the role of \r\nsocietal values in determining the importance of a risk. Specific criteria \r\nconsidered relate to the magnitude of adverse consequences, including \r\nthe potential for irreversibility, thresholds, or cascading effects; the \r\nlikelihood of adverse consequences; the timing of the risk; and the \r\nability to respond to the risk (Section 16.5.1)."


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"Figure 1.4 |  Increasingly complex climate-related risks. Risk results from interactions among the determinants of risk--hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, shaped by \r\nresponses--which can interact in complex ways. Different risks and responses can compound in single a) or multiple b) directions, cascade (e.g., with one event triggering another; \r\nc), and aggregate (e.g., with independent determinants of risks co-occurring; d). This complex nature of risk is central in the AR6 assessment. Figure adapted from Simpson et al. \r\n(2021)."


id: 1250d5be62bfdd00c1abc654ff117adf
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"The AR6 assessment incorporates the inherently complex nature \r\nof climate risk, vulnerability, exposure and impacts, which include \r\nfeedbacks, cascades, non-linear behaviour and the potential for surprise \r\n(Figures 1.3; 1.4). Many different overlapping and complementary terms \r\nand methods are used to evaluate and understand complex climate risk \r\nrelevant to this report, such as aggregated, compounding or cascading \r\nrisks, all of which are considered here as relevant to complex climate \r\nrisk (Pescaroli and Alexander, 2018; Simpson et. al. 2021)."


id: b242e711f77d685b059c0c5955656075
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"Another core area of complexity in climate risk is the behaviour \r\nof complex systems, which includes multiple stressors unfolding \r\ntogether, cascading or compounding interactions, and non-linear \r\nresponses and the potential for surprises (Kopp et  al., 2017; Clarke \r\net al., 2018; Yokohata et al., 2019). Risks and responses, including their \r\ndeterminants, can all interact dynamically in shaping the complexity \r\nof climate risk (Figure 1.4). The combined effects of multiple stressors \r\nor compound hazards and risks are unlikely to be assessed through "


id: c8c92dd2c66bc84d1aebd9b72d002de
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content:
"The dynamic nature of risk and its determinants is one important \r\ndimension of complexity. The risk of climate change impacts can be \r\nusefully understood as resulting from dynamic interactions among \r\nclimate-related hazards, the exposure and vulnerability of affected "


id: 66bbdf288081618c004f55b691911e6c
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"Figure 1.5 |  Risk in IPCC assessment through time. (a) An explicit risk framing emerged in the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters \r\nto Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) and WGII AR5 (IPCC, 2014a, b). (b) In the current assessment, the role of responses in modulating the determinants of risk is a \r\nnew emphasis (the 'wings' of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure 'propellers' represents the ways in which responses modulate each of these risk determinants). (c) As the risk \r\nassessment spans Working Groups, the differential role of risk determinants for risk related to impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability versus risk related to mitigation becomes an \r\nincreasingly important feature of climate risk assessment as well as management."


id: 90037bffbfc80cf26bba7f434b85ec0f
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"responses, given limits to adaptation at sectoral and regional levels \r\n(Section 1.4, 16.1, 16.4). In some cases, the losses will be irreversible."


id: d74cf3ed659388d8e0c5b97f705b7bb3
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content:
"simple addition of the independent effects and instead require system \r\napproaches to understanding risk. While some components may cancel \r\neach other out, others may nonlinearly increase risk. Nonlinearities can \r\nresult from abrupt climate changes, tipping points or thresholds in \r\nresponses, alternative stable states, low-probability/high-consequence \r\noutcomes or events that cannot be predicted based on current \r\nunderstanding (WGI Section 1.4.4.3)."


id: 5c6d8f791e170d13be3ce7bac420e23e
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"Due to these complexities, the challenge of assessing risks of climate \r\nchange is not well bounded, will be framed differently by individuals \r\nand groups, involves large and deep uncertainties, and will have \r\nunclear solutions and pathways to solutions (Rittel and Webber, \r\n1973; Renn, 2008; see also Sections  1.5.2; 17.2.1). Challenges also \r\ninclude the degree to which time is running out, there is no central \r\nauthority, those seeking the solutions are also causing the problem, \r\nand the present is favoured over the future (Sun and Yang, 2016; see \r\nalso Section 17.2.1). Both the needs for and the limits to adaptation \r\nresponses fundamentally depend on progress achieved in reducing GHG \r\nemissions and limiting the magnitude of climate change that occurs, \r\ninterlinked with socioeconomic development trajectories and the many \r\nsocial and political factors shaping climate risks and responses."


id: 88d7a7149bf75e96b8050eece0596844
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content:
"Multiple, diverse sources of information underlie our understanding of \r\nclimate risks and response, including climate change science, diverse \r\nsocial sciences and IK and LK."


id: 1335d40563b9cc2f09eeef5ecf684fe0
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"transdisciplinary and hence utilises a variety of methods to derive new \r\nknowledge (Orlove et al., 2020)."


id: e0302345ee58e2da1fdddf15d015b73c
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content:
"Anthropogenic climate change is unequivocal and ongoing. The \r\ndetection of specific changes in the climate and their diverse impacts \r\non people and nature is advancing, with robust attribution of climate \r\nchange to GHG emissions as well as to other contributing factors (e.g., \r\nsocioeconomic development, land use change). In the AR6, advances \r\ninclude an increasing ability to link individual extreme weather \r\nand climate events to emissions of GHGs, increasing identification \r\nof impacts for societies and economies and strong linkages in the \r\nattribution methods across Working Groups (Cross-Working Group \r\nBox: ATTRIBUTION in Chapter 1)."


id: 3d869b2cf806ca2af77472d75811f624
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"Impacts occurring today can be put into context through understanding \r\nof long-term changes on Earth, introduced in Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  PALEO in Chapter 1. Climate has always varied and changed \r\nin the past, and this change often caused substantial ecological, \r\nevolutionary and socioeconomic impacts. Adaptation of ecosystems \r\nand societies occurred through responses as diverse as migration to \r\nmass extinction. Humankind is at the verge of leaving the Holocene \r\nclimatic envelope, in which all human achievement since the advent \r\nof agriculture has occurred. In some systems, the changes and losses \r\nwill be irreversible."


id: 39f64b9b2afc9935ceb882ccbb902c11
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content:
"Such experience-based and practical knowledge is obtained over \r\ngenerations through observing and working directly within various \r\nenvironments. Knowledge may be place based and rooted in local \r\ncultures, especially when it reflects the beliefs of long-settled \r\ncommunities who have strong ties to their natural environments (Orlove \r\net al., 2010). Other times, knowledge may be embedded in institutions \r\nor oral traditions that mobilise them across contexts, for example, as \r\nmigrant populations bring their knowledge across different regions, \r\nand have global relevance. Scientific insights often confirm IK and LK \r\n(Ignatowski and Rosales, 2013), but IK and LK also provides specific, \r\nalternative ways to understand environmental change. This includes \r\ntacit and embodied aspects of knowledge (Mellegard and Boonstra, "


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"These three areas are deeply embedded in the social sciences and reflect \r\nfundamental questions of how and why humans and their institutions \r\nact and respond (Chapter 17). In the past two decades, these basic \r\nissues have been applied to research of climate change, dynamic risk \r\nand adaptation. Underlying this analysis, particularly of root drivers, \r\nbarriers and enablers, are assertions regarding the foundational \r\nproperties of individual and collective behaviour (i.e., self-interest, \r\noptimisation, rationality, bounded rationality), how they are structured \r\nand how these properties can be revealed. This literature draws on \r\nseveral academic disciplines, including anthropology, economics, \r\ngeography, political science, psychology, sociology and urban studies. \r\nClimate change social science research is often interdisciplinary or "


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"However, at the same time, they may have specific characteristics so \r\nthat they cannot be reduced to each other or subsumed by each other, \r\nand they all have relevance to understanding the interactions between \r\nsociety and climate (Bremer et al., 2019)."


id: 1856a7bb5214ec9c54f23cf0bc4594b1
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"2020) that may be crucial to foster local action and that are not easily \r\ncaptured in scientific knowledge (including cultural indicators, scales and \r\ninterconnectedness between ecosystems). Multiple knowledge systems \r\n(i.e. IK, LK, disciplinary knowledge, technical expertise) may coevolve in \r\niterative and interactive processes whereby they influence each other. "


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"Authors: Pandora Hope (Australia), Wolfgang Cramer (France/Germany), Maarten van Aalst (Netherlands), Greg Flato (Canada), Katja \r\nFrieler (Germany), Nathan Gillett (Canada/UK), Christian Huggel (Switzerland), Jan Minx (Germany), Friederike Otto (UK /Germany), \r\nCamille Parmesan (France/ UK /USA), Joeri Rogelj (UK /Belgium), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland), Aimee Slangen \r\n(the Netherlands), Daithi Stone (New Zealand), Laurent Terray (France), Robert Vautard (France), Xuebin Zhang (Canada)"


id: eea195bc060f0d7c30eaf79259a65284
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"Changes in the climate system are becoming increasingly apparent, as are the climate-related impacts on natural and human systems. Attri\u0002bution is the process of evaluating the contribution of one or more causal factors to such observed changes or events. Typical questions ad\u0002dressed by the IPCC are, for example: 'To what degree is an observed change in global temperature induced by anthropogenic GHG and aero\u0002sol concentration changes or influenced by natural variability?' or 'What is the contribution of climate change to observed changes in crop \r\nyields that are also influenced by changes in agricultural management?' Changes in the occurrence and intensity of extreme events can also \r\nbe attributed, addressing questions such as: 'Have human GHG emissions increased the likelihood or intensity of an observed heat wave?'"


id: 5de1fc22836f6859360f3e076e48715e
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"This Cross-Working Group Box briefly describes why attribution studies are important. It also describes some new developments in the \r\nmethods used and provides recommendations for interpretation."


id: 85f201f8530f25387733cec770ece3
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content:
"Attribution studies serve to evaluate and communicate linkages associated with climate change, for example: between the human-induced \r\nincrease in GHG concentrations and the observed increase in air temperature or extreme weather events (WGI Chapters 3, 10 and 11); or \r\nbetween observed changes in climate and changing species distributions and food production (e.g., Verschuur et al., 2021; WGII Chapter 2 \r\nand others, summarised in Chapter 16) or between climate change mitigation policies and atmospheric GHG concentrations (WGI Chapter 5; \r\nWGIII Chapter 14). As such, they support numerous statements made by the IPCC (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014c; WGI Section 1.3, Appendix 1A)."


id: e0f1e2a34d5560a7b90b424996175ded
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content:
"Attribution assessments can also serve to monitor mitigation and assess the efficacy of applied climate protection policies (e.g., Nauels \r\net al., 2019; Banerjee et al., 2020; WGI Section 4.6.3), inform and constrain projections (Gillett et al., 2021; Ribes et al., 2021; WGI \r\nSection 4.2.3) or inform loss and damages estimates and potential climate litigation cases by estimating the costs of climate change \r\n(Huggel et al., 2015; Marjanac et al., 2017; Frame et al., 2020). These findings can thus inform mitigation decisions, as well as risk \r\nmanagement and adaptation planning (e.g., Climate & Development Knowledge Network, 2017)."


id: 2c0222073e258beca43588f742cf98e4
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content:
"There are many attribution approaches, and several methods are detailed below. In physical and biological systems, attribution often builds \r\non the understanding of the mechanisms behind the observed changes and numerical models are used, while in human systems other \r\nmethods of evidence-building are employed. Confidence in the attribution can be increased if more than one approach is used and the \r\nmodel is evaluated as fit for purpose (Hegerl et al., 2010; Vautard et al., 2019; Otto et al., 2020a; Philip et al., 2020; WGI Section 1.5). Finally, \r\nappropriate communication of the attribution assessment and the accompanying confidence in the result is needed (e.g., Lewis et al., 2019)."


id: 5fa2c2aa80fbe3dd7e2555c6cdabf05d
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content:
"Specific regional conditions and responses may simplify or complicate attribution on those scales. For example, some human forcings, \r\nsuch as regional land use change or aerosols, may enhance or reduce regional signals of change (Lejeune et al., 2018; Undorf et al., 2018; \r\nBoe et al., 2020; Thiery et al., 2020; see also WGI Sections 10.4.2; 11.1.6; 11.2.2). In general, regional climate variations are larger than \r\nthe variations in global mean climate, adding additional uncertainty to attribution (e.g., in regional sea level change, WGI Section 9.6.1). \r\nThese statistical limitations may be reduced by 'process-based attribution', focusing on the physical processes known to influence the \r\nresponse to external forcing and internal variability (WGI Section 10.4.2)."


id: b40c1c25e4778aa6e11f68194fbba7c9
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"The attribution of observed changes to climate-related drivers across a diverse set of sectors, regions and systems is part of each chapter \r\nin the WGII contribution to the AR6 and is synthesised in WGII Chapter 16 (Section 16.2). The number of attribution studies on climate \r\nchange impacts has grown substantially since AR5, generally leading to higher confidence levels in attributing the causes of specific \r\nimpacts. New studies include the attribution of changes in socioeconomic indicators, such as economic damages due to river floods (e.g., \r\nSchaller et al., 2016; Sauer et al., 2021), the occurrence of heat-related human mortality (e.g., Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018; Sera et al., \r\n2020) or economic inequality (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019)."


id: c5e3d836bb961422422a5e8d7fde8cb5
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"Impact attribution does not always involve attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing. However, a growing number of studies include \r\nthis aspect (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019, for the attribution of economic inequality between countries; Frame et al., 2020, for the \r\nattribution of damages induced by Hurricane Harvey; or Schaller et al., 2016, for flood damages)."


id: 1ceea45ce453098337093906abb53be9
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"Authors: Wolfgang Kiessling (Germany, Chapter 3, Cross-Chapter Paper 1), Timothy A. Kohler (USA, Chapter 14), Wolfgang Cramer (France, \r\nChapter 1, Cross-Chapter Paper 4), Gusti Anshari (Indonesia, Chapter 2), Jo Skeie Hermansen (Norway, CA Chapter 1), Darrell S. Kaufman \r\n(USA, WG 1, Chapter 2), Guy Midgley (South Africa, Chapter 16), Nussaibah Raja (Mauritius, CA Chapter 3), Daniela N. Schmidt (UK/\r\nGermany, Chapter 13), Nils Chr. Stenseth (Norway, Chapter 1), Sukumar Raman (India, Chapter 1)"


id: 8947df1c5a86b211c596e19e2549086e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Understanding how Earth's biota have responded to past climate dynamics is essential to understanding current and future climate\u0002related risks, as well as the adaptive capacity and vulnerabilities of ecosystems and the human livelihoods depending on them. Here we \r\nassess climate impacts on long geological time scales (Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1, Figure PALEO.1), as well as for the last \r\n70 kyr of Homo sapiens' existence (Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1, Figure PALEO.2). Climate responses of natural and human \r\nsystems are intertwined through the physiological limits of wild animals, livestock, plants and humans, subject to a slow evolutionary \r\ndynamic (Portner, 2021; Sections 2.6.1; 3.3)."


id: 9751c96a42fe6895a510ac3ed725bb3f
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content:
"Organismic traits associated with extinctions during ancient climate changes help identify present-day vulnerabilities and conservation \r\npriorities (Barnosky et al., 2017; Calosi et al., 2019; Reddin et al., 2020; Chapters 2; 3; Cross-Chapter Paper 1). Marine invertebrates and \r\nfishes are at greater extinction risk in response to warming than terrestrial ones because of reduced availability of thermal refugia in \r\nthe sea (Pinsky et al., 2019) (high confidence). Terrestrial plants showed reduced extinction during past rapid warming compared to \r\nanimals (high confidence), although they readily adjusted their ranges and reorganised vegetation types (Yu et al., 2015; Lindstrom, 2016; \r\nHeimhofer et al., 2018; Slater et al., 2019; Huurdeman et al., 2021)."


id: 172ab7accba12624381492bef6ac76c1
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"Early human evolution (beginning ~2.1 Ma) occurred in a highly variable climate characterised by glacial-interglacial cycles. This \r\nvariability may have favoured key hominin adaptations such as bipedality, increased brain size, complex sociality, and more diverse \r\ntools (Potts, 1998; Potts et al., 2020) (medium confidence), but extinctions of five species of Homo have also been attributed partly \r\nto climate change (Raia et al., 2020) (low confidence). The 'out-of-Africa' dispersal of anatomically modern humans may have been \r\ndriven by climate variability ( Timmermann and Friedrich, 2016; Tierney et al., 2017) (medium confidence, low agreement). Most late \r\nPleistocene megafaunal extinctions are attributed to direct and indirect human impacts (Sandom et al., 2014), although some were \r\nlikely accelerated by climate change (Wan and Zhang, 2017; Westaway et al., 2017; Carotenuto et al., 2018; Saltre et al., 2019) (low \r\nconfidence)."


id: 1cb6205de88e764e93e2ecb28f47667
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content:
"Figure Cross-Chapter Box PALEO.1 |  Biological responses to six well-known ancient rapid warming events (hyperthermals) over the last 300 million \r\nyears. Temperature anomalies (mean temperature difference to pre-industrial 1850-1900, solid orange curve) derived from climate modelling (300-66 Ma) (Haywood \r\net al., 2019) and deep-sea proxy data (66-0.1 Ma) (Hansen et al., 2013). Temperature peaks underneath the grey bars indicate well-known hyperthermals with temperature \r\nanomalies derived from temperature-sensitive proxy data (Foster et al., 2018). Error bars indicate uncertainties in peak warming events (ranges in the literature). Insets \r\nshow observed impacts to the biosphere. Q, Quaternary."


id: 3ae26a58cbacade978de7344920f6d2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Climate change not only impacts past ecosystems and societies but also the remains they have left. The progressive loss of archaeological \r\nand historical sites and natural archives of paleo environmental data (WGI Chapter 2) constitutes often-overlooked impacts of climate \r\nchange (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Anderson et al., 2017; Hollesen et al., 2018; Climate Change Cultural Heritage Working \r\nGroup International, 2019). These archives include peat bogs and coastal archives lost to sea level rise, droughts and fires, degradation \r\nthrough permafrost thaw, and dissolution. The ancient cultural diversity documented by such sites is an important resource for future \r\nadaptation (Rockman and Hritz, 2020; Burke et al., 2021). Since many of these sites constitute anchors for IK, their loss is not just data \r\nlost to science, it also interrupts intergenerational transmission of knowledge (Green et al., 2009)."


id: 80fca12012738804d061fb6792a1e71e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"Figure Cross-Chapter Box PALEO.2 |  Humankind is embarking on a trajectory beyond the global temperatures experienced since at least the advent \r\nof agriculture. Global surface temperature change for the last 70,000 years (relative to 1850-1900; data from WGI Chapter 2) alongside projections (with 5-95% \r\nrange; WGI Chapter 4) and major events in human societies. Global climatic parameters do not always capture regional variability of importance to specific societies. The \r\n'Orbis Spike' represents a pronounced dip in atmospheric CO2 from the Law Dome ice core (Antarctica) (MacFarling Meure et al., 2006) marking the globalisation in biota \r\nand trade of the Columbian Exchange and population declines and afforestation in the Americas. This, and the 1964 14C peak, have been suggested as possible markers \r\nfor the onset of the Anthropocene (Lewis and Maslin, 2015). Population trends from United Nations (2019)."


id: b34535d1741222824af3c2f3fced25be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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content:
"IPCC, directly involve Indigenous researchers (Yumagulova et al., 2019) \r\nto ensure ethical and equitable engagement with IK. Such partnership \r\nwith and leadership of Indigenous Peoples on climate research is also \r\nconsistent with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples \r\n(e.g., Bawaka Country et al., 2015; Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, 2018; Cross\u0002Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18)."


id: ff911738ea023acd42800b0887853853
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content:
"As climate change is a multi-scale phenomenon, from the local to the \r\nglobal, the assessment of climate risks and climate change impacts \r\nis strongly spatial, with a focus on regional climate change. The term \r\n'regions' is used in different ways throughout the AR6 assessment as \r\nthe use of the term varies across disciplines and context."


id: 59f14029a91ec7023d1d0a0be13eb749
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"First, there are chapters dedicated to regional assessment in AR6 \r\nWGII (Chapters 9-14 and Cross-Chapter Papers 4 and 6). Within \r\nthe content of these and other chapters of AR6, the term region \r\nis often used to describe continental and sub-continental regions, \r\noceanic regions, hemispheres, or more specific localities within these \r\ngeographic areas. Building on the continental domains defined in AR5 \r\nWGII and to ensure consistency with WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe \r\net  al., 2021) and the WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et  al., 2021), AR6 WGII \r\nuses a continental set of regions, namely Africa, Asia, Australasia, \r\nEurope, North America, Central and South America, Small Islands, \r\nPolar Regions and the Ocean."


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"Second, the term regions is used to categorise areas around the globe \r\nwith common topographical characteristics or biological characteristics. \r\nFor example, Chapter 2 introduces regions in its discussion of biomes, \r\nas in arid, grassland, savanna, tundra, tropical, temperate and boreal \r\nforested regions. Chapter 3 adds reference to an area's orientation \r\nwith bodies of water, using terms such as deltaic, coastal, intercoastal, \r\nfreshwater and salty. In addition, Cross-Chapter Paper 2 uses a \r\ncoastal region typology based on physical geomorphology considering \r\nelevation, coastal type and topography (see Cross-Chapter Paper 2, p. \r\n5; Barragan and de Andres, 2015; Kay and and Adler, 2017; Haasnoot \r\net al., 2019a)."


id: a8c2656083f493c3ae4c256f44708698
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"Third, CCPs are dedicated to typological regions, defined in the Annex \r\nII: Glossary as regions that share one or more specific features (known \r\nas 'typologies'), such as geographic location (e.g., coastal), physical \r\nprocesses (e.g., monsoons), biological (e.g., coral reefs, tropical forests, \r\ndeserts), geological (e.g., mountains) or anthropogenic (e.g., megacities), \r\nand for which it is useful to consider the common climate features. \r\nTypological regions are generally discontinuous (such as monsoon areas, \r\nmountains, deserts and megacities) and are specifically used to integrate \r\nacross similar climatological, geological and human domains."


id: caedce0158d327c855999e7c2467262c
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"Understanding climate risks across regions also requires consideration \r\nof the capabilities of developing countries and scientists across country \r\ncontexts in conducting climate assessments. Substantial unevenness \r\nof available climate observations, risks assessments and scientific \r\nliterature across regions and country capacities substantially challenges \r\na globally comprehensive assessment (Connelly et al., 2018)."


id: 23b3080065c853c9054e99dd2e9d8cd0
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content:
"It is very likely (90-100%) that the number\r\nof cold days and nights has decreased and \r\nthe number of warm days and nights has\r\nincreased on the global scale. "


id: ed17bdeb98ca3a8e12cb26785b8f6f46
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"Figure 1.6 |  The IPCC AR5 and AR6 framework for applying expert judgement in the evaluation and characterisation of assessment findings. This illustration \r\ndepicts the process assessment authors apply in evaluating and communicating the current state of knowledge. Guidance for the application of this framework is described in full \r\ndetail in Mastrandrea et al. (2010). In addition to scientific knowledge, IK and LK is central to understanding and acting effectively on climate risk (Section 1.3.2.3). The diagram \r\nin this figure is reproduced from Mach et al. (2017)."


id: 7a851750c6f1a291641b639fb0dcc04
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"was increased comparability of assessment conclusions across the full \r\nspectrum of the physical science basis of climate change and resulting \r\nimpacts, risks and responses (Mach et al., 2017)."


id: d00678c65bff734b4af7ee7205511fe0
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"Since 1990, IPCC assessments have included designated terms and \r\nother approaches for communicating the expert judgements made \r\nby authors (Mastrandrea and Mach, 2011). The goal of such methods \r\nhas been consistent treatment of uncertainties in assessing and \r\ncommunicating the current state of knowledge. Because terms such \r\nas 'probable' or 'likely' hold very different meanings to different \r\npeople, a standardised approach is essential for enabling consistent \r\ninterpretation (WGI Section  1.2.3.1). Since its 2001 assessment, \r\nIPCC authors have applied common guidance on expert judgement \r\nacross the Working Groups (Moss and Schneider, 2000; IPCC, 2005). \r\nThe AR5, iteratively building from past IPCC guidance, was the first \r\nreport to apply a single framework consistently across the Working \r\nGroups and their diverse topics and associated disciplines (Figure 1.3; \r\nMastrandrea et al., 2010; Mastrandrea and Mach, 2011). The outcome "


id: d9e37b31722fb3ac50b166b7bc9445d3
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"This framework for expert judgement is again being applied in the AR6 \r\nand associated special reports in the assessment cycle (Mastrandrea \r\net  al., 2010; see also WGI Box  1.1). Under the framework, the \r\nassessment of scientific understanding and uncertainties begins with \r\nevaluation of evidence and agreement--especially the type, amount, \r\nquality and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement \r\n(steps 1-3 in Figure 1.6). Evidence assessed can reflect observations, \r\nexperimental results, process-based understanding, statistical analyses \r\nor model outputs. Evidence is most robust when it consists of multiple \r\nlines of consistent, independent and high-quality evidence. The \r\ndegree of agreement considers the extent of established, competing \r\nor speculative explanations for a given topic or phenomenon across \r\nthe scientific community. Together, this evaluation of evidence and "


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"agreement forms a traceable account for each key finding in the \r\nassessment. Subsequently, the framework proceeds to evaluation of \r\nlevels of confidence, which integrate evidence and agreement (steps \r\n3-5 in Figure 1.6). Confidence reflects qualitative judgements of the \r\nvalidity of findings. It thereby facilitates, more readily, comparisons \r\nacross assessment conclusions. Increasing evidence and agreement \r\ncorresponds to increasing confidence (step 4 in Figure 1.6)."


id: 50543900c4e84a289968de86375bb637
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"AR6 highlights the concept of solutions, defined as effective, feasible \r\nand just means of reducing climate risk, increasing resilience and \r\npursuing other climate-related societal goals. This section introduces \r\nkey concepts used in this report to assess the goals associated with \r\nadaptation, its process and governance, its implementation, M&E and \r\nits limits."


id: ad9024a860e3fd8bc558cf1949e802f1
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"If uncertainties can be quantified, the framework involves a further \r\noption of characterising assessment findings with likelihood terms \r\nor more precise presentations of probability (steps 5-6 in Figure 1.6). \r\nThe relevant probabilities can pertain to single events or broader \r\noutcomes. Probabilistic judgements can be based on statistical or \r\nmodelling analyses, elicitation of expert views or other quantitative \r\nanalyses. Where appropriate, authors can present probability more \r\nprecisely with complete probability distributions or percentile ranges, \r\nalso considering tails of distributions important for risk management. \r\nUsually, likelihood assignments are underpinned by high or very high \r\nconfidence in the findings."


id: 8513000b0cf2cf1bc88ae26335f41fbc
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"The term 'solutions' has various synonyms used across this and previous \r\nIPCC reports, including options, measures, actions and responses. All \r\ndenote policies, technologies, processes, investments or other activities \r\nundertaken in reaction to or with the intent of addressing some aspect \r\nof climate change (Chapter 17). The term 'solutions' has drawbacks, \r\nsuggesting a finality, that is, the problem is solved. Solving climate \r\nchange in this sense is not likely for the foreseeable future. In addition, \r\nthe word 'solutions' sometimes denotes a narrow set of responses, \r\nsuch as 'technical solution', as opposed to more wide-ranging actions \r\nthat might be involved in a transition to resilience. Nonetheless, AR6 \r\nhighlights the term 'solutions' because, compared to these other terms, \r\nwhen acted upon or incorporated in policy, it denotes effectiveness \r\nand some degree of progress at achieving desired goals."


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"Confidence is often most applicable in characterising key findings in \r\nWGII assessment (Mach et al., 2017). This tendency results from the \r\ndiverse lines of evidence across disciplines relevant to climate change \r\nimpacts, adaptation and vulnerability. By contrast, likelihood is more \r\ncommon in WGI assessment."


id: 46deff0e641094352173f68668a2f5fa
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"Assessing successful adaptation is, however, difficult (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox ADAPT in Chapter 1). WGIII Section  1.6 summarises four broad \r\nanalytic frameworks--aggregate efficiency, ethics and equity, transition \r\ndynamics, and psychology and politics--relevant to mitigation and \r\nconcludes that failure to integrate understanding across them has \r\nbeen a fundamental reason for inadequate progress to date in reducing \r\nGHG emissions. While the four analytic frameworks used in WGIII also \r\nall contribute to the understanding of adaptation, an integrated view \r\nremains elusive because adaptation differs strongly from mitigation. In \r\nparticular, the goals of adaptation are harder to define and measure \r\nthan those for mitigation. The feasibility, effectiveness and success of \r\nmany adaptation actions depend more strongly on context. A different, \r\noften more diffuse, set of actors are involved, and it is often hard to \r\ndistinguish what activities count as adaptation."


id: d9cbf41095e8543552ee4085e7930fa6
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"Given these challenges, this report provides an assessment of adaptation \r\nsolutions based on the attributes justice, feasibility and effectiveness, \r\nas shown in Figure 1.7."


id: 59ed22d3eec488f8045e4745880053cb
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"A solution is just when its outcomes, the process of implementing the \r\naction and the process of choosing the action respects principles of \r\ndistributive, procedural and recognitional justice (Section  1.4.1.1). \r\nAny assessment of justice depends on an understanding of potential \r\noutcomes of alternative options (Chapter 16), as well as processes \r\nof decision making (Chapter 17). Consideration of justice necessarily \r\nintroduces normative elements into any assessment of what constitutes \r\na solution."


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"A solution is effective to the extent it reduces climate risk. Effectiveness \r\ncan refer to whether an adaptation-related action reduces risk \r\n(Section 1.4.1.2; Chapter 16) or the extent to which an action achieves its \r\nintended outcomes within a stated time frame (Chapter 17). Effectiveness \r\ncan also include measures of economic efficiency, assessment of net "


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"Figure 1.7 |  Assessing adaptation solutions and success. A solution is defined as an adaptation option which is effective, feasible and conforms to principles of justice. \r\nThese attributes can be assessed ex ante during adaptation planning. During implementation, the overall success of a response can be judged via monitoring and evaluation of \r\nthese attributes. Adaptation unfolds as an iterative learning process of assessment, implementation, monitoring, adjustment and learning. A set of responses is adequate to the \r\nextent that they sufficiently reduce climate risk to levels considered tolerable. Adaptation may not fully avoid residual risks, but the more adequate the response, the less residual \r\nrisk remains. Adaptation also has limits beyond which it is no longer possible to avoid intolerable risks and impacts."


id: d7664a39b655f798f0653b348bf38dcf
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"A solution is feasible to the extent it is considered possible and \r\ndesirable, taking into consideration barriers, enablers, synergies \r\nand trade-offs (Section 1.4.2). AR6 assesses the feasibility of a wide \r\nrange of adaptation options (Cross-Chapter Box  FEASIB in Chapter \r\n18), building on the approach of the SR1.5 report, which uses five \r\ndimensions of feasibility: geophysical, environmental-ecological, \r\ntechnological, economic, sociocultural, institutional. In addition, \r\nfeasibility can also refer to a specific set of actions, so that feasibility \r\nin any particular situation may depend on specific conditions of \r\ngovernance capacity, financial capacity, public opinion, interest "


id: 44f20e492dfc2c99d341235b0fd6a80e
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"benefits over costs and the extent to which an action enhances broader \r\nand multi-dimensional measures of societal well-being (Section 1.4.1.2). \r\nAssessments of effectiveness will often involve uncertainty, which may \r\naffect judgements about the comparative effectiveness and justice \r\nof alternative options (Chapters 16; 17; Cross-Chapter Box  DEEP in \r\nChapter 17). Assessment of effectiveness also involves consideration of \r\nmaladaptation (Section 1.4.2.4) in which an action, often inadvertently, \r\nincreases risk or vulnerability for some or all affected individuals or \r\ncommunities."


id: 573366b2fa52bc80015525bb72d75e67
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"climate justice compared to general scholarship and debate on justice \r\nprinciples (Chu and Michael, 2018; Benjaminsen et al., 2021)."


id: 90e66ad53a7e86b57374ed4d5aa8e755
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"group pressure, and the distribution of political and economic power \r\n(Chapter 17). For instance, a particular jurisdiction may find either \r\nof two options feasible when implemented alone but might lack the \r\ncapacity to implement them both at the same time. Feasibility can be \r\na context-dependent and time-varying attribute. Many solutions, for \r\ninstance those that seek to unlock financing or build public support for \r\ncertain actions, aim at increasing the feasibility of future adaptation \r\nresponses (Sections 1.4.2; 1.5)."


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"Three principles of distributive justice are especially relevant to \r\nadaptation: fairness between individuals, fairness between states and \r\nfairness between generations (Fleurbaey et al., 2014). Fairness between \r\nindividuals means that the distribution of goods, vulnerabilities and \r\nrisks of climate change should not fall on individuals for arbitrary \r\nreasons. It would be arbitrary if, say, a family were disproportionately \r\naffected by climate-induced drought by chance alone. Similarly, an \r\nadaptation action that protects some and creates risks for others is \r\nunfair if the final distribution of burdens and benefits is arbitrary."


id: 8ee00d3101c8ec29be182646e31e9647
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Articulating the goals of adaptation is an important initial step in the \r\ndecision-making process (Jones et al 2014). Adaptation often involves \r\ntrade-offs among various options of adaptation, mitigation and \r\nsustainable development, as well as judgements based on science, \r\nengineering and economics, and questions of distribution and democratic \r\nparticipation (Jafry et al., 2018). Articulating the goals of adaptation at \r\nthe international, national and local levels thus requires engaging with \r\nthe concepts of equity, justice and effectiveness (high confidence)."


id: 7d88c51926756eab50e6d6fe11c27f50
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"The second consideration of distributive justice is international justice, \r\nor fairness between states. An important idea in international climate \r\nnegotiations has been common but differentiated responsibilities\r\n(CBDR) and respective capabilities, stated in Principle 7 in the Rio \r\nDeclaration (1992), as well as by the Kyoto Protocol (1997). The principle \r\nreflects the underlying idea that all countries must address climate \r\nchange, but the form of climate action depends on the situation the \r\ncountry finds itself in. Developed countries may find themselves in a \r\nposition where they can decarbonise more rapidly and ensure financial \r\nflows, while the responsibilities of LDCs and SIDS may primarily come \r\nin the form of adaptation actions. This means that uneven distribution \r\nof wealth and power between (and within) countries is a key driver of \r\nclimate injustice."


id: dec01fa02cacaf4b83d852ddab30112a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Assessing climate action involves ethical considerations that the \r\nliterature often describes as climate justice. The term 'climate justice,' \r\nhowever, has been used in different ways in different contexts and \r\nby different communities. Grassroot organisations and activists often \r\nfocus on unequal global power relations, wealth, and interests within \r\ncommunities, within nations, and along the North-South divide, as well \r\nas the historical responsibility for climate change (Chatterton et al., \r\n2013). Some national governments also view climate justice as the \r\nright of developing countries to industrialise. Balancing these issues, \r\ninternational climate change negotiations have primarily focused on \r\ncurrent capacities and responsibilities for addressing climate change \r\nas reflected in the UNFCCC principle of 'common but differentiated \r\nresponsibilities' (Fisher, 2015)."


id: 45aa177c20f86c0f1556111fe910cf3d
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"The third consideration of distributive justice relevant to climate \r\nadaptation is fairness between generations and the obligation to ensure \r\nthat future generations are guaranteed at least a minimally decent life \r\n(Jonas, 1985; Llavador et al., 2010). For example, youth climate activists \r\nand political philosophers have argued that today's children, as well \r\nas generations yet unborn, will be exposed to far greater risks than \r\nmost living adults so that policymakers should work to avoid shifting all \r\nburdens of adaptation to future generations."


id: 8139644b6f0892db3612963de3b37e9b
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"Since principles of justice are substantive normative commitments that \r\nhave been debated for centuries, it would be unrealistic to expect a \r\nuniversal consensus. Nevertheless, there is broad agreement about the \r\ncore issues. Just normative principles are ones that result in fair and \r\nequitable allocation of goods, vulnerabilities and risks (Caney, 2014; \r\nSchlosberg, 2009; Schlosberg, 2013; Jafry et al., 2018)"


id: 9aadecfa65946704dc41c70feaadf99e
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"It is common to distinguish between distributive justice, procedural \r\njustice and recognition (Fraser, 1999; Schlosberg, 2003; Schlosberg, \r\n2009; Reckien et al., 2017; Forsyth, 2018; Olazabal et al., 2021). The first \r\nrefers to the distribution of burdens and benefits; the second to who \r\ndecides and participates in decision making; while recognition entails \r\nbasic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of \r\ndiverse values, cultures, perspectives, and worldviews. Recognition \r\nis closely linked to distributive and procedural justice (Hourdequin, \r\n2016). Without recognition, actors may not benefit from the two other \r\naspects of justice (medium confidence). Recognition thus represents \r\nboth a normative principle as well as an underlying cause of unjust \r\ndistribution and lack of democratic participation (Svarstad and \r\nBenjaminsen, 2020). However, recognition is still under-represented in "


id: b4c564e4f3c5ecd261ca03598aac1ac2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"In AR5 WGIII (IPCC, 2014a) discussions of justice and ethical concepts \r\nwere combined with discussions of economic principles while the \r\nadaptation chapters did not explicitly discuss climate justice. This \r\nreport moves beyond AR5 by connecting the assessment of policy \r\nchoices to normative principles and showing how better outcomes are \r\nobtained by choosing just ones."


id: 1cab2c45c256147e8e70617a855876ab
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"Planning and assessment of effective and just adaptation require \r\nappropriate measures of both criteria. This report uses both single and \r\nmulti-criteria measures. Local and regional decision makers employ \r\nbenefit-cost analysis to efficiently allocate scarce resources among \r\nalternative adaptation efforts and among adaptation and other societal \r\nneeds. Decision makers at national and global levels can employ \r\nmeasures of social welfare to consider trade-offs and synergies among \r\nadaptation, mitigation, and development. Such measures can avoid \r\nwasteful allocation of resources and help avoid maladaptation. Such \r\nmeasures also prove useful because well-established approaches exist \r\nto evaluate such quantities, and because income is highly correlated \r\nwith a wide range of indicators of social progress and climate change \r\nadaptation capacity (Dasgupta et al., 2018)."


id: 54225884eebefa39f883209f5db56d17
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"The SDGs and Key Representative Risks (Chapter 16) exemplify such \r\nmulti-criteria measures. In addition, many communities increasingly \r\nmeasure policy outcomes using multi-objective measures, often \r\norganised around the concept of well-being and designed to allocate \r\nresources and implement policies to advance social progress (Lee et al., \r\n2015; City of Santa Monica, 2018). Similarly, the Human Development \r\nIndex (HDI), which derives from the capabilities approach, combines \r\nincome (as gross national income, GNI, and parity purchasing power, \r\nPPP) with an education and a health indicator and integrates human \r\nand socioeconomic factors (Herrero et  al., 2012; USEPA, 2016; Leal \r\nFilho et  al., 2018; Nagy et  al., 2018; UNDP, 2018). The inequality\u0002adjusted HDI value, or IHDI, can be interpreted as the level of human \r\ndevelopment when inequality is accounted for (UNDP, 2018)."


id: b66c22ce99e445d43638772506e7dab4
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"living standards and equity. Improved health-care systems, disaster \r\nmanagement and early warning can reduce risks to human health. Better \r\nmanagement of land, soil and fisheries, and changing diets and reducing \r\nfood waste can reduce risks to food security. Improved water efficiency \r\nand policies to reduce demand can reduce risks to water security."


id: f2a6047c793d2ba412b6acffc07ef792
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"Adaptation actions include those taken with the explicit intention of \r\nreducing climate risk, as well as actions taken without reference to \r\nclimate change, for example, building community resilience irrespective \r\nof any particular hazard. Adaptation actions can include those aimed at \r\nreducing a specific risk or actions aimed at systemic changes, and also \r\ninclude adjustments to current practices or transformational changes. \r\nIn addition, the success of adaptation in one place or jurisdiction can \r\ndepend on activities in other places or jurisdictions."


id: a10e688345e654d690ed1208b1de94a0
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"There are concerns about large-scale conversion of non-forest land into forest plantations for the sole purpose of increasing carbon sinks \r\nthrough bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (Heck et al., 2018; Hanssen et al., 2020; Cross-Chapter Box in Chapter 2), \r\nwhich may actually result in negative carbon sink (Jackson et al., 2002; Mureva et al., 2018) and significant loss of overall biodiversity \r\n(Abreu et  al., 2017). Such large-scale afforestation may also lead to the dispossession of previous users, such as smallholders and \r\npastoralists. Hence, when NbS include forest plantations or other large-scale conversion of land use, there is a risk that they result in \r\nmaladaptation and malmitigation, including climate injustice (Seddon et al., 2019; Cousins, 2021)."


id: fcdf60e741cfb50ff3a1a38b1acb8389
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"Two concepts--enabling conditions and catalysing conditions--\r\nhelp frame this report's assessment of factors that over time can \r\nhelp expand the set of available solutions (Section  17.4). Enabling \r\nconditions enhance the feasibility of adaptation and mitigation options \r\n(AR6 Glossary, IPCC, 2021b). Enablers include finance, technological \r\ninnovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, \r\nmulti-level governance and changes in human behaviour and \r\nlifestyles. Chapter 17 (see also WGIII Figure  1.4) identifies three \r\nbroad categories of enabling conditions: (Section 17.4): governance, "


id: e8077ab9abc0e3c10083edb7d9d4b040
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"finance and knowledge. Catalysing conditions motivate and accelerate \r\nthe adaptation decision-making process, leading to more frequent \r\nand more substantial adaptation (Chapter 17). While enablers make \r\nadaptation more feasible and effective, catalysing conditions provide \r\nan impetus for action. These later conditions include a sense of urgency \r\n(Section 17.4.5.1), system shocks, such as those from natural disasters, \r\npolicy entrepreneurs and social movements."


id: 81c09b199cf619d9aa5b89d5c0eaf8ec
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"trans-regional and trans-national levels (see also WG III Chapter 1). The \r\nconcept emphasises that modern governance generally consists of, and \r\nis more flexible, when there are linkages of governance processes across \r\ndifferent scales and levels. Multi-level governance is widely regarded as \r\ncrucial, particularly for transformational adaptation, defined as 'adapting \r\nto climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function \r\nthat go beyond adjusting existing practices including approaches that \r\nenable new ways of decision making on adaptation' (IPCC SR1.5, IPCC, \r\n2018b; see also Section  1.5). The assessment in subsequent chapters \r\nalso shows that public governance arrangements and institutions \r\nsupport most adaptation for addressing the main climate risks, though \r\nthe importance of the private sector and community organisations in \r\nadaptation is increasing. It also shows that polycentric governance tends \r\nto benefit adaptation."


id: 1218c5fc2bf8dd72f11b7af311d02301
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"Governance capacity constitutes an important enabling condition \r\nnot only because it facilitates the (efficient) organisation and \r\nimplementation of adaptation action, but also because it contributes \r\nto learning. The latter is central to the process of adaptation as \r\ninformation regarding current and future climate conditions continues "


id: 865f32ae8e6dd7bcbd3e8613a8c3537c
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"adaptation by mainstreaming adaptation into city plans, such as land \r\nuse planning, procuring resilient infrastructure and transportation, \r\nsupporting health and social services, promoting community-based \r\nadaptation, and protecting and integrating biodiversity and ecosystem \r\nservices into city planning (Section 17.4.3). Mainstreaming adaptation \r\nalso shows many shortcomings, such as diminishing the visibility of \r\ndedicated, stand-alone adaptation approaches (Persson et al., 2016), \r\nunequal distribution of adaptation efforts, diluting responsibilities for \r\nimplementation (Nalau et  al., 2016; Reckien et  al., 2019), exhibiting \r\ndisconnects between planning, investment and implementation, having \r\nlimited policy coherence (Friend et  al., 2014; Bizikova et  al., 2015; \r\nEngland et  al., 2018; Koch, 2018) and failing to adequately balance \r\noverlapping and/or competing policy objectives (Vij et al., 2018)."


id: 6121f7d2a4634934a4093837a4c85af6
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"Finally, governing adaptation in ways that maximise the solution space \r\nand facilitate learning can help avoid maladaptation. Maladaptation \r\nrefers to potentially adverse effects of certain forms of adaptation \r\naction, such as increased GHG emissions or increased vulnerability \r\nto climate change and diminished welfare of certain parts of a \r\npopulation now or in the future (Anguelovski et al., 2016; Keskitalo \r\nand Pettersson, 2016; Veldkamp et  al., 2017; Zimmermann et  al., \r\n2018; Benzie et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018b; Munia et al., 2018; Nadin and \r\nRoberts, 2018; Prabhakar et al., 2018). Maladaptation is an example of \r\nresponse risk, which is increasingly highlighted in both AR6 WGII and "


id: 219d1f9e5d1736beb909ab5779d51018
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"Mainstreaming adaptation into existing governance structures and \r\nassociated organisations and their investments, policies and practices \r\ncan contribute to expanding the solution space and support efforts at \r\ntransformative adaptation. For instance, urban planning can support "


id: cdc7308c5a4221a2b4ce0e28289e7704
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"Figure 1.8 |  Adaptation assessment prior to implementation and M&E during and after implementation. Both systematic assessment of adaptation needs and \r\noptions and M&E of implemented adaptation are key to iterative climate risk management and to achieving effective and equitable adaptation. Most assessments to date have \r\nreferred to aspects prior to implementation. There is much less systematic evidence on adaptation action, and even less evidence on adaptation outcomes and impacts and their \r\nimplications for climate change impacts, risks, vulnerabilities and resilience. Figure 17.9 provides more detail on M&E."


id: 3e7deaf9d65b10256b0f157be4384216
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"WGIII (Section 1.3.1.2; see also IPCC Risk Guidance, Reisinger, 2020). \r\nOne example is that adaptation action may set paths that limit the \r\nchoices of future generations to adapt. This last characteristic refers \r\nto the lock-in effects of improperly designed and costly infrastructures \r\nthat affect the ability of future generations to amend."


id: da93ea701a202c6ff854c77a3ff82fb1
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"and equity, often resulting in recommendations for decision makers \r\n(Sections  17.5.1.1; 17.5.1.7). In some literatures M&E refers solely to \r\nefforts undertaken after implementation. In other literatures, M&E refers \r\nboth to efforts conducted before and after implementation. As shown in \r\nFigure 1.8, M&E is essential to the process of iterative risk management, \r\nboth in terms of adaptation assessment prior to implementation and \r\nM&E of implemented adaptation measures. AR6 highlights that M&E \r\nafter implementation is much less common than adaptation assessment \r\nprior to implementation (Section 17.5.2.1; Berrang-Ford, 2020)."


id: 7ac3022ff62d793b054d96525f27f86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:57
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"Tracking adaptation planning and policies: Since AR5, interest in M&E \r\nfor tracking progress in adaptation has grown substantially at the \r\nlocal, national and global level. The Paris Agreement calls for a global \r\nstocktake every 5 years starting in 2023 (Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS \r\nin Chapter 17). It also encourages states to monitor and evaluate their \r\nadaptation plans, policies, programmes and actions and provides \r\nguidance on communicating information about adaptation to the \r\ninternational community (UNFCCC, 2015b, Article 7.9d; UNFCCC, \r\n2018a, Decision 9/CMA.1; UNFCCC, 2018b, Decision 18/CMA.1)."


id: 1668e3dac264260669f58ba99b7925dd
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"Since AR5, a large number of case studies on individual local to national \r\nlevel adaptation measures have been published (see Chambwera \r\net  al., 2014; Keskitalo and Preston, 2019b), as well as comparative \r\nstudies across countries over multiple years (Lesnikowski et al., 2016; \r\nBiesbroek et  al., 2018; Biesbroek and Delaney, 2020). The existing \r\nliterature now allows for at least preliminary conclusions about where \r\nand why we observe adaptation efforts, as described in the sectoral, \r\nregional and synthesis chapters of this report."


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"While case studies provide context-specific insights, global inventories \r\nare essential for tracking global progress on adaptation (UNEP, 2018; \r\nUNEP et al., 2021; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS). Until recently, the \r\ndominant approach surveyed National Communications to the UNFCCC \r\nto measure the amount of adaptation planning activity worldwide \r\n(Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2007; Lesnikowski et al., 2016). More \r\nrecent assessments have focused also on the quality of local and "


id: 9446c3c7d3287902dd5c18839e85641e
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"M&E encompasses a broad range of activities serving multiple purposes, \r\nincluding tracking progress of adaptation efforts over time, understanding \r\nequity and effectiveness of adaptation options and outcomes, and \r\ninforming ongoing adaptation processes (Section  17.5.2.1). While \r\nmonitoring and evaluation are often referred to jointly as 'M&E,' \r\nmonitoring usually refers to continuous information gathering, whereas \r\nevaluation denotes more comprehensive assessments of effectiveness "


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"Authors: Johanna Nalau (Australia/Finland), Lauren Rickards (Australia), Tabea Lissner (Germany), Katharine J. Mach (USA), Lisa Schipper \r\n(Sweden/UK), Chandni Singh (India), William Solecki (USA), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas) and Edmond Totin (Benin)"


id: e0d9580f208439a0f434f86e5d40c635
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"This cross-chapter box complements the reviews of specific adaptation knowledge, content and progress described throughout WGII by \r\nproviding a higher-level analysis of the shifting characteristics of and trends in adaptation research and its evolution over time."


id: 5a2a1a33452aade4cd82dc3c283bf9cd
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"The knowledge base on adaptation has matured significantly since AR5. Whereas adaptation research was primarily academic during the \r\n1990s and 2000s, it now includes a proliferation of on-the-ground experience of how to adapt to climate change, increasingly documented \r\nin reports and papers. Furthermore, academic research on adaptation has diversified significantly. Understanding the characteristics and \r\ndiversity of this knowledge base is key for it to effectively inform decision making and action on adaptation."


id: aa0271be3576fb4aca656ab48428b894
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"IPCC assessment reports combine two complementary approaches to adaptation research: that which is 'on' or 'about' adaptation and \r\nthat which is 'for adaptation'. Both are needed because research 'on adaptation' helpfully investigates the phenomenon and processes of \r\nadaptation (e.g., via analyses of others' adaptation practices and efforts), while research 'for adaptation' generates knowledge that can enable \r\nthe planning and implementation of adaptation (e.g., action research as part of an adaptive capacity-building process) (Swart et al., 2014)."


id: 92edd0316717fcb16e5c165a8fff6d70
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"Grey literature on adaptation is also proliferating, typically authored by organisations funding and implementing adaptation. This literature \r\noften documents a range of adaptation strategies (Sections 9.8.3; 10.4.6.4; 14.4.3.3; 17.2.1.) and lived experiences of adaptation efforts, \r\nincluding helping give voice to marginalised groups, and highlighting the importance of IK and LK (Sections 4.7.5.4; 15.6.4; Box 9.2; Cross\u0002Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18; Nunn et al., 2016; Petzold et al., 2020). However, most of the lessons learned through implementation of \r\nadaptation projects and programmes are still not captured in academic or even grey literature and thus remain less systematically analysed. \r\nCrucially, the large gaps in documentation of adaptation knowledge mean that a lack of published evidence about a given issue does not \r\nnecessarily reflect its absence in real life--a qualification about adaptation research that readers of AR6 should appreciate."


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"In the 1990s, climate change adaptation was constrained as a specific topic of inquiry by the dominant focus on mitigation of GHG \r\nemissions and the related assumption that successful mitigation would render unnecessary the need for adaptation beyond what human \r\nand natural systems could inherently manage (Pielke, 1998; Schipper, 2006; Schipper and Burton, 2009). Several key developments in the \r\n1990s included IPCC's 2nd report (1996) and the establishment of several key journals including Climatic Change (1978), Mitigation and \r\nAdaptation Strategies to Global Change (1996) and the Global Environmental Change journal that strengthened more dedicated focus \r\non climate change related research."


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"Many foundational papers on key concepts central to adaptation were published in the 1990s and early 2000s onwards (Burton, 1992; \r\nSmit, 1993; Smithers and Smit, 1997; Parry and Carter, 1998; Fankhauser et al., 1999; Smit et al., 1999; Pittock and Jones, 2000; Klein, 2003; "


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"Adger et al., 2005), while adaptation began to gain more prominence in IPCC's 3rd assessment (2001) and 4th assessment (2007). For \r\nexample, the Canada Climate Programme report (Smit, 1993) set out many of the principles of adaptation and was highly influential \r\ncharting these concepts in IPCC's 3rd Assessment Report (Schipper and Burton, 2009). These papers and IPCC reports remain key \r\nfoundations of climate adaptation science literature (Nalau and Verrall, 2021)."


id: 18143fc6e132d9f4e642ff878d40a051
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"Fundamental questions about equity and justice in adaptation include gender and intersectionality (see Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in \r\nChapter 18; Section 1.4.1.1; Chapter 18;) and broader critiques of who participates in processes of adaptation planning and implementation, \r\nwho receives investments, who and what benefits from them, who makes key decisions regarding adjustments through time (Taylor et al., \r\n2014; Boeckmann and Zeeb, 2016; Nightingale et al., 2019; Pelling and Garschagen, 2019; Byskov et al., 2021; Eriksen et al., 2021) and "


id: af7e44ea934bc9d65e8928bdab1c7e2d
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"All of these developments indicate that adaptation research is not only more reflexive about some of its central assumptions, methodologies \r\nand tools (Biesbroek et al., 2013; Conway and Mustelin, 2014; Nalau et al., 2015; Nightingale, 2015a; Porter et al., 2015; Eriksen et al., \r\n2015; Lubell and Niles, 2019; Woroniecki et  al., 2019; Singh et  al., 2021), but also cognisant of the need to critically consider its \r\nunderpinning goals, purpose and impact in the world."


id: d3febed84581079e18a50f76c4db625a
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"Informing ongoing adaptation: Iterative risk management involves an \r\nongoing cycle of assessment, action, learning and response in which \r\nM&E plays a central, enabling role (Section 1.2.1.1). Assessing the risk \r\nreduction provided by adaptation, both planned and implemented, \r\noften requires projections of anticipated future climate, socioeconomic \r\nconditions, and the effectiveness and implications for justice of each \r\noption (Section 17.4.4). Understanding the potential for maladaptation \r\nmay also require such assessments (Section 1.4.2). Processes, such as \r\nadaptive pathways, that involve anticipating future responses (Boxes \r\n11.4; 11.6; Sections  11.7; 17.3) entail monitoring to detect early \r\nwarning of approaching thresholds or changes in the solution space \r\n(e.g., more rapid than expected sea level rise or new social acceptance \r\nof managed retreat) that suggest the need or opportunity to adjust or \r\nexpand current adaptation efforts (Haasnoot et al., 2021)."


id: 744e7cec282d57f0eaf171d892fe23bb
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"national adaptation planning to better characterise its potential merits, \r\nshortcomings and effects (Woodruff and Regan, 2019; UNEP et  al., \r\n2021) and have compiled inventories of adaptation projects (Leiter, \r\n2021) and local adaptation policies (Reckien et al., 2018;Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2019b; Olazabal et al., 2019; see also Section 6.4.6). Chapters \r\n16 and 17 of this report offer an initial synthesis, but efforts to compile \r\na comprehensive global, empirical inventory of climate change \r\nadaptation remain in an early phase (e.g., Tompkins et  al., 2010; \r\nBerrang-Ford et  al., 2011; GEF, 2011; Ford et  al., 2015; Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2016; Fankhauser, 2017; Leiter, 2021; Tompkins et al., 2018)."


id: 3a791698c4f573dec10c77fd78d27017
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"Improving effectiveness: Information regarding the effectiveness of \r\nadaptation remains scarce (UNEP et al., 2021), which hinders efforts \r\nto improve adaptation practice. A recent comprehensive review found \r\nthat only 2.3% of the close to 1700 articles identified by the Global \r\nAdaptation Mapping Initiative as documenting implemented adaptation \r\nprovide evidence of risk reduction (Chapter 16; Berrang-Ford, 2020). \r\nHowever, there is limited but emerging evidence of the use of M&E by \r\ndifferent actors to assess adaptation progress (Section 17.5.1)."


id: a1f1e748a49e1815a639cfad05ad3aa2
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"report provides evidence of assessing transformational adaptation in \r\nterms of scope, depth, speed and limits to adaptation (Chapter 16)."


id: bb2604ea0d95daebc6713d76739faef
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"its essential function, identity and structure. Soft limits represent the \r\nrange of change or disturbance of a system which can be sustained \r\nover time by innovation or policy changes. The level of GHG emissions \r\nreduction, adaptation and risk management measures are the key \r\nfactors determining if and when adaptation limits are reached."


id: 4ffb4e4ad62325b6a400b62872589ee0
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"When a limit (soft) is reached, then intolerable risks and impacts may \r\noccur, and additional adaptations (incremental or transformational) \r\nare required.to reduce or avoid these risks and impacts (Chapters \r\n16; 17). IPCC SR1.5 defined incremental adaptation that maintains \r\nthe essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale, \r\nwhereas transformational adaptation that changes the fundamental \r\nattributes of a socio-ecological system in anticipation of climate \r\nchange and its impacts. When incremental adaptation is insufficient \r\nto avoid intolerable risks, transformational adaptation may be able \r\nto extend the potential to sustain human and natural systems (IPCC, \r\n2018a; Cross-Chapter Box  LOSS in Chapter 17; Klein et  al., 2014b). \r\nTransformational adaptation can allow a system to extend beyond \r\nits soft limits and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits. This "


id: f46c58e6bffc4d22324c9cd864a5c765
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"This report highlights that transformative system change is required to \r\nmeet the SDGs (Chapter 18). Transformation is defined as 'a change \r\nin the fundamental attributes of a system including altered goals or \r\nvalues' (SR 1.5). The related concept of transition is defined as 'the \r\nprocess of changing from one state or condition to another in a given \r\nperiod of time' (IPCC SR 1.5/SRCCL; also see Section 1.5.2)."


id: 78ba25f7e13bcb9ad82028870dc5ac04
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"The concepts of transition and transformation help organise assessments \r\nof near- and longer-term adaptation actions that may prove feasible and \r\neffective in achieving societal goals related to climate and sustainable \r\ndevelopment."


id: d40f3199d720443330f18faad1d59d5d
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"As used in the global environmental change literature, transformation is \r\na pluralistic concept embracing many interpretations (Box 18.3), but all \r\nfocus on the general idea of fundamental change in society as opposed to \r\nchange that is minor, marginal or incremental. Uses of the term can differ \r\nwith respect to: (a) how the system undergoing change is conceptualised, \r\n(b) the extent to which change is continuous or discontinuous and the "


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"at large scope or scale, (b) the type of adaptation that occurs once soft \r\nlimits have been breached, or (c) change that addresses root causes of \r\nvulnerability as well as redressing long-standing inequities. The Fifth \r\nAssessment Report's WGIII employed the concepts of transformation \r\nand transformation pathways to assess the large-scale societal \r\nchanges needed to meet GHG emission reduction goals."


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"time scales involved, (c) the extent to which transformation is guided \r\ntowards desired goals or emerges without intent and (d) whether \r\nthe usage focuses on descriptions of societal processes or includes \r\nnormative judgements as to which outcomes should or should not \r\noccur (Feola, 2015) . The literature generally uses transformation as an \r\nanalytic-descriptive concept, which aims to describe significant change \r\nin couple human-natural systems, or as a solutions-oriented concept, \r\nwhich aims to inform or contribute to societal change."


id: 1a1d7c1679b41a11974baba97a1ed142
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"This WGII report focuses on transformational adaptation as one \r\ncomponent of climate resilient development in which adaptation, \r\nmitigation and development solutions are pursued together to exploit \r\nsynergies and reduce trade-offs among these actions (Section 1.5.3; \r\nChapter 18). Chapter 16 assesses the extent to which transformational \r\nadaptation is currently being implemented, using criteria including the \r\nscope, depth and speed of the adaptation actions, as well as the extent \r\nto which limits to adaptation have been considered (Section 16.3.2.4). \r\nChapter 17 ranks potential adaptation options by where they lie on the \r\nincremental to transformational continuum (Section 17.2.2.4)."


id: 7d993d5e6b1611da5d7e789722d047d5
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"The IPCC Fifth Assessment cycle, starting with its Special Report \r\non Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance \r\nClimate Change Adaptation (SREX), first highlighted the concept of \r\ntransformation, drawing primarily on the solutions-oriented approaches \r\nof O'Brien (2011) and Pelling (2011). This Sixth Assessment report also \r\ngenerally employs transformation as a solutions-oriented concept, with \r\nmention in almost all chapters and significant emphasis in the synthesis \r\nchapters."


id: ddf65263c4c9fe83743d6c50928bfd0
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"The IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle also highlights the concept of \r\ntransition, drawn from the sustainability transitions literature (Kohler \r\net al., 2019). The 1.5 SR organises its assessments of feasibility and \r\npotential policy actions around transitions in four socio-technical \r\nsystem: energy, land, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems \r\n(IPCC, 2018b, Chapter 4). This report adds a fifth system transition--a \r\nsocietal transition focused on attributes that drive innovation, the \r\nevolution of patterns of consumption and development and power \r\nrelationships among societal actors (Section  18.1.4). The AR6 WGIII \r\nreport is organised around six systems transitions: energy; agricultural, \r\nforestry, other land use; urban; buildings; transportation; and industry, \r\nwhich includes supply chains and the circular economy."


id: eeb4b1a8738d219fe84cde2fbfac2b03
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"Societal transformation can arise without explicit intent as, arguably, \r\ndid the industrial revolution and some of the trends re-making today's \r\nsociety (see Section 1.1). In order to help policymakers achieve societal \r\ngoals, this report seeks to identify the conditions for deliberate \r\ntransformations, that is, those envisioned and intended by at least \r\nsome societal actors (Linner and Wibeck, 2019)."


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"The literature offers multiple views on the relationships between \r\ntransition and transformation (Box  18.3). The 1.5 SR suggests that \r\ntransformation is needed to generate the four system transitions. \r\nIn many literatures, transformation is considered a more expansive \r\nprocess than transition, with the former less exclusively focused on \r\nsocio-technical systems and more engaged with questions of power, \r\npolitics, capabilities, culture, identity and sense-making (Gillard et al., \r\n2016; Holscher et  al., 2018; Linner and Wibeck, 2019). This report \r\ngenerally takes this more expansive view of transformation to engage \r\nwith issues of equity, climate justice and large-scale institutional and \r\nsocietal change (Box 18.3)."


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"This WGII report has a particular focus on transformational \r\nadaptation (Section 1.4.4.1), which it views as laying on a continuum \r\nfrom incremental and transformational with no sharp division between \r\nthem (Sections 1.5.2; 17.2.2.3)."


id: 58c7c06e1d3b1ba76a9c0528df76269
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"Multiple narratives describe pathways for pursuing deliberate \r\ntransformations (Cavanagh and Benjaminsen, 2017). While building \r\non the new 'green economy' framing that emerged with the Rio+20 \r\nconference in 2012 (UNEP, 2011; De Mello and Dutz, 2012; OECD, 2012), \r\nthese narratives reflect differing trade-offs among values and differing \r\nassumptions about the factors driving system change (see WGIII). \r\nThe narratives range from 'business-as-usual' scenarios focused on \r\nmodernisation of sectors such as energy, agriculture and use of natural \r\nresources to more transformational propositions such as various green \r\nnew deal proposals (European Commission, 2019), the new climate \r\neconomy (Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2018), \r\nand 'doughnut economics' (Raworth, 2017). Some literature suggests \r\nsignificant benefits from such new climate economy proposals, claiming "


id: 1526640065352b21b1916efdaf1a531
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"The IPCC first highlighted the concept of transformational adaptation \r\nin SREX. SREX generally used the phrase transformation to refer to \r\nfundamental societal changes that advance climate adaptation, disaster \r\nrisk management and sustainable development. Transformation \r\nwas seen as one part of the solution space alongside options such \r\nas reducing vulnerability and exposure, and increasing resilience for \r\nmanaging risk. WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report used the \r\nphrase 'transformational adaptation' to contrast with 'incremental \r\nadaptation'. That report used the former term to refer to: (a) adaptation "


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"tens of trillions in economic benefits, tens of millions of new jobs and \r\nclose to a million fewer premature deaths from pollution over the \r\ncoming decade (Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2018)."


id: d51f9e3f281d994593d280ef6be3a5d0
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"reliance on negative emissions technologies, such as the large-scale \r\ndeployment of BECCS (e.g., illustrative emissions reduction pathway \r\nlabelled P4 in IPCC SR1.5, IPCC, 2018b; also WGIII Chapter 3) and \r\naims to generate progress toward achieving the SDGs by prioritising \r\nredistribution rather than GDP growth. SDGs potentially addressed by \r\ndegrowth include universal basic income (SDGs 1 and 10), work-sharing \r\nto guarantee full employment (SDGs 8 and 10) and shifting taxation \r\nburdens from income to resource and energy extraction (SDGs 8 and 12)."


id: 28fc1f7b80230d962f833d8d73eb915b
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"Two contrasting schools of thought, called ecomodernism and degrowth \r\n(D'Alisa et  al., 2014), offer important bounding narratives for 'green \r\neconomy' approaches that aim achieve the SDGs and Paris Agreement \r\ngoals."


id: f18e307e892a5330a8625b4d19d96bc6
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"The contrasting premises of ecomodernism and degrowth have \r\nprompted a series of mutual counterarguments. Degrowth scholars \r\nemphasise that global absolute decoupling is currently not proceeding \r\nfast enough to meet Paris Agreement targets (Ward et al., 2016; Moreau \r\net  al., 2019; Haberl et  al., 2020). Ecomodernists point to important \r\nprogress towards achieving absolute decoupling at the national or \r\nregional scale--as shown by Le Quere et al. (2019) in 18 developed \r\ncountries--and the future potential of emerging technologies and \r\npolicy reforms (Asafu-Adjaye et al., 2015)"


id: 8239af265a50d24bbd80146c82d4070c
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"Ecomodernism aims to decouple GHG emissions and other environmental \r\nimpacts from GDP growth (WGIII Section 1.4.1; Desrochers and Szurmak., \r\n2020) through three primary strategies: (a) 'green' technological \r\ninnovation, (b) resource efficiency or productivity improvements and (c) \r\nthe sustainable intensification of land use in both rural and urban areas \r\n(Asafu-Adjaye et  al., 2015; Isenhour, 2016). Such efforts to mobilise \r\nlarge-scale investment in climate change adaptation and to decouple \r\nGDP growth from environmental impacts could generate substantial \r\nemployment opportunities and open up profitable investment frontiers \r\n(Asafu-Adjaye et al., 2015; Adelman, 2018), which could help achieve \r\nSDG 8, which calls for accelerated annual growth rates of at least 7% in \r\nleast developed countries and achieve SDG 10, which calls for 'income \r\ngrowth of the bottom 40% of the population at a rate higher than the \r\nnational average'."


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"As one important theme, this Sixth Assessment report assesses who \r\nneeds to take what actions and when in order that transformations \r\nunfold at sufficient speed and scale to meet the Paris Agreement, the \r\nSDGs and other policy goals. A number of literatures inform these \r\nassessments."


id: 354dfc65ea4c82dd2014bf4d6f5fa85e
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"Degrowth proponents question the feasibility of decoupling at a scale \r\nand rate sufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals (Kallis, 2017; Parrique \r\net  al., 2019; Gomez-Baggethun, 2020; Hickel and Kallis, 2020). Using \r\nprecautionary principle-rooted arguments (Latouche, 2001), degrowth \r\naims for intentional decreases in both GDP and coupled GHG emissions \r\n(Kallis, 2011) using policy mechanisms such a 'cap and share' framework \r\nfor distributing emissions permits on an annually declining basis with \r\nlegislation to prohibit the overshoot of established carbon budgets \r\n(Douthwaite, 2012; Kallis et al., 2012). Degrowth thus seeks to minimise "


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"Various literatures describe multiple, co-evolving societal elements \r\nwhich organise themselves into stable regimes that, under some \r\ncircumstances, can undergo significant change. The sustainability \r\ntransitions literature provides one central focus for understanding such \r\nprocesses and potential intervention points for actors seeking change "


id: fda3726337703ccf08ced33c36a31a7e
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"The incremental cycle is characterised by reactive responses to external \r\ndrivers and performance evaluation relative to past performance. Shifts \r\nto the transformational cycle are characterised by more pro-active \r\nresponses and more expansive problem framings."


id: ae13885b325cefba98b35639993bef8d
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"The socio-ecological and sustainability transitions literature describes \r\ntransitions as often nonlinear, characterised by tipping point behaviour \r\nwith periods of relative stability interspersed with periods of more rapid \r\nchange as thresholds are crossed (van Ginkel et al., 2020). Actors seeking \r\ntransformation may take incremental steps that aim to induce such \r\ntipping point behaviour (Otto et al., 2020b). For instance, full accounting \r\nof climate risk in insurance and financial lending decisions could similarly \r\nact as such social tipping point interventions for adaptation (Hill and \r\nMartinez-Diaz, 2019). Transformations need not, however, be equitable \r\nor smooth. Historical examples suggest the potential for rigidity traps, \r\nin which suppression of innovation and a high degree of connectivity in \r\na system delay an eventual transformation, which, when it eventually \r\noccurs, unfolds as exceptionally harsh (Hegmon et al., 2008)."


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"Many actors can contribute to launching or blocking significant system \r\nchange. Pelling et al. (2015) highlights power relationships within and \r\namong activity spheres that influence the process of transformational \r\nadaptation and distribution of risks. In the sustainability transitions \r\nliterature each set of actors--including those from academia, politics, \r\nindustry, civil society and households--brings their own resources, \r\ncapabilities, beliefs, strategies and interests, which affects their \r\ninterest, objectives, ability to affect the process and their ability to \r\naffect others (Kern and Rogge, 2018)."


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"There is no consensus in the literature on the best means for actors \r\nto pursue deliberate transformation (Section  1.5.1) and the extent \r\nto which actors can guide the process. The transitions and some \r\ntransformation literature derive from a complex systems perspective ( \r\nSection 1.3.1.2; Kohler et al., 2019; Linner and Wibeck, 2019) in which \r\nbehaviours can be understood but not predicted (Chapter 17; Mitchell, \r\n2009). These literatures suggest that interventions in such systems will \r\nrarely result in them evolving along some pre-determined pathway. \r\nRather, successful interventions more often resemble iterative \r\nprocesses of action, observation and response, which are described \r\nin the literature with terms such as iterative risk management \r\n(Section 17.2.1), clumsy solutions (Thompson and Rayner, 1998; Linner \r\nand Wibeck, 2019), probe and response (Chapter 17; French, 2013) and \r\nwhat Young (2017) calls adaptive governance."


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"The socio-ecological systems literature, a main source of the resilience \r\nconcept, focuses on the system elements of society and ecosystems, \r\ntheir interdependence and on how they change in response to shocks \r\n(Section 1.2.1.4). Coupled human and natural systems maintain their \r\nvital functions through what are called adaptive cycles that begin \r\nwith growth, reach a period of stasis, experience a disruption and \r\nthen reorganise. This repeating cycle can leave the system unchanged \r\nor transition it to new states. Human agency can alter system \r\ncharacteristics so that after any disruption the system will reorganise \r\ninto a different, more desired state, guide the reorganisation in desired \r\ndirections after a system shock (such as a natural disaster) or provide \r\nthe shock that catalyses a reorganisation."


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"These literatures view transformation as a collective action challenge \r\namong actors with both common and differing values, interests and \r\ncapabilities interacting over time with a mix of cooperation and \r\ncompetition (Young, 2017; Dasgupta et  al., 2018). Concepts such as \r\nradical incremental transformation (Gopel, 2016), direct incrementalism \r\n(Grunwald 2007) and progressive incrementalism (Levin et al., 2012) \r\nenvision strategies in which actors pursue incremental actions in one or \r\nmore niches that move the current system towards tipping points which, \r\nonce crossed, will drive the system to a new state (Tabara et al., 2018). The \r\nincremental actions aim to promote learning, remove barriers to change \r\n( Dasgupta et al., 2018; Baresi et al., 2020), create a series of wins that \r\ngenerate momentum and generate positive feedbacks (e.g., by creating \r\nconstituencies) such that the speed and scale of the climate action "


id: 7877f2e9f7cda75277a413c01783c023
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"These literatures view incremental and transformational change as \r\nlinked processes. In the transformational adaptation literature, Park \r\net  al. (2012) consider incremental and transformational adaptation \r\nas two concentric and linked action-learning cycles with similar steps \r\nthat include monitoring and learning. Systems generally reside in the \r\nincremental cycle but can temporarily jump to the transformational cycle \r\nbefore returning to the incremental, albeit in a state with fundamentally \r\nchanged attributes. Shifts from the incremental to transformational cycle \r\nare made possible by knowledge and skills, as well as adjustments to \r\nvision, agendas and coalitions achieved through monitoring and learning. "


id: 735884e1ea8eca4ae19dad38256380e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"explain where a community is, where it wants to go and how it intends \r\nto get there are an important enabler of transformation (Sections 1.5.1; \r\n1.2.3; Linner and Wibeck, 2019; Fazey et al., 2020)."


id: bda6f247910e6d36a5618e5ee364b094
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"grows over time (Levin et al., 2012). However, incremental strategies \r\ncan fail to move fast enough, can succumb to path-dependency that \r\nlocks in initially helpful but long-term adverse responses (such as the \r\nwell-known levee effect) (Sadoff 2015; Haasnoot 2019) or can result in \r\na transition that meets some goals (e.g., environmental) but not others \r\n(e.g., equity) (high confidence)."


id: b14cb52d29c4583629a929141148ff7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Adaptation and mitigation can reduce climate-related risks. Implementing \r\nthese two types of climate action together increases their effectiveness \r\nby exploiting synergies and reducing trade-offs among them. In \r\naddition, implementing adaptation and mitigation as an integral part of \r\ndevelopment can similarly make all three more effective (Section 18.2.3). \r\nThe link between climate change and sustainable development has long \r\nbeen recognised and has been assessed in every Working Group II report \r\nsince AR3. AR5 introduced the concept of climate resilient development \r\nto help assess development trajectories that include co-ordinated \r\nadaptation and mitigation actions aimed at reducing climate risk."


id: 9a8c554014405cbdf31b4ebd39b314f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"As a central feature, such frameworks and tools embrace: (a) multiple \r\nobjectives and measures (Section  1.4.1.2) to help identify and \r\nconsider trade-offs among parties with a diversity of interests, values \r\nand objectives and (b) multiple scenarios that enable stress-testing \r\nof proposed actions to identify conditions in which they would fail \r\nto meet their goals and thus inform consideration of ways to make \r\nthose actions more robust and resilient over multiple futures in the \r\nnear and longer term (Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r\n17). A focus on single or overly aggregated measures (Section 1.4.1.2) \r\nand single scenarios can privilege some actors' views over others, \r\nreduce transparency and make it more difficult to identify resilient \r\nand equitable solutions to complex, deeply uncertain, non-linear and \r\ncontested problems (Schoen and and Rein, 1994; Renn, 2008; Jones \r\net al., 2014; Lempert and Turner, 2020) (medium confidence)."


id: bf8c03e7a70d60ae57c71d8893443144
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"Introduced in the WGII AR5 (Olsson et al., 2014), and further addressed \r\nin SR1.5, climate resilient development pathways are trajectories \r\nthat strengthen sustainable development and efforts to eradicate \r\npoverty and reduce inequalities, while promoting fair and equitable \r\nreductions of GHG emissions, and serve to steer societies towards low-"


id: 5be151b3932d9126f6101db0bca9a9b5
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"information (Sections 18.4.2; 18.9.2). The pursuit of equity and justice \r\nare both an enabler and an outcome of climate resilient development \r\n(Section 18.1.4). Climate resilient development involves a process of \r\naction, learning and response (Section  1.5.2), so the capability for \r\nsuch monitoring and iterative risk management also represents an \r\nimportant enabling condition (Section 18.1.4.2). Governments have an \r\nimportant role to play in expanding the solution space, often focusing \r\non technology, policy and finance. Expanding the solution space also \r\nrequires a broader set of actors. Chapter 18 and other chapters in this \r\nreport use the climate resilient development concept to highlight the \r\nrole of citizens, civil society, knowledge institutions, media, investors \r\nand businesses, and the importance of expanding the arenas of \r\nengagement in which they interact."


id: dacb35f82102b35ea0ac24379fc5f4a1
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"The IPCC mandate involves the provisioning of available scientific \r\ninformation and evidence to inform climate action by multiple actors, \r\nnotably governments (including international alliances) in the context \r\nof UNFCCC. Increasingly, IPCC assessments also aim to provide \r\nvaluable information to non-governmental organisations, small and \r\nlarge enterprises, and citizens."


id: 38736dfb7d21380053c823309d2d5328
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Figure  1.10 shows the structure of this report, organised into three \r\nsections comprising chapters and cross-chapter papers. This first \r\nchapter provides the point of departure for this assessment, defines \r\nkey concepts and describes the connections among them."


id: 8a24259a5c3719cbe09053d1b2f58f7d
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"to highlight and expand relevant material from chapters and beyond \r\ninto one place to ensure the integrated treatment of particular systems \r\nor regions and to improve accessibility of the report to readers."


id: 10d478c2e2177e9ac93a0d864e4220a7
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content:
"The next group of chapters assess risks, adaptation and sustainability \r\nfor systems impacted by climate change from the vantage of seven \r\nsectoral chapters, The next group of chapters organises the assessment \r\nfrom the vantage of seven regional chapters."


id: 3a2aa8f1404d737b66ae4938ac5d67a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Finally, section three highlights sustainable development pathways \r\nintegrating adaptation and mitigation through three synthesis \r\nchapters. The synthesis chapters summarise findings across all the \r\nchapters, CCPs and literatures on key risks, decision-making options \r\nand climate resilient development pathways that can lead from the \r\ncurrent situation to a future more consistent with the stated policy \r\ngoals. This report also assesses the adaptation options available, the \r\nextent to which such options can reduce risk, the effectiveness of \r\ncurrent adaptation efforts, and their interactions with mitigation and \r\nsustainable development."


id: 183469af8fc3cdcdf3b08444bde27e70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"In contrast to previous assessments, the current report embeds \r\nadaptation in each regional and sectoral chapter rather than in separate \r\nadaptation chapters, in order to reflect the increasing prevalence of \r\nadaptation and the extent to which many current risk, impacts and \r\nvulnerability estimates incorporate adaptation actions already taken. \r\nIn addition, CCPs integrate across chapter topics, sectors and regions \r\nin particular types of geographies or ecosystems, termed typological \r\nregions, such as mountains, cities by the sea or tropical forests. CCPs \r\nare a new element in WGII AR6 included at the request of governments "


id: 8efd361e0d4237db979764dd28f04ad9
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"The goals of climate change adaptation, as a broad concept, are to reduce risk and vulnerability to climate change, strengthen resilience, \r\nenhance well-being and the capacity to anticipate, and respond successfully to change. Existing international frameworks provide a high-level \r\ndirection for coordinating, financing and assessing progress toward these goals. However, specifying the goals for specific adaptation actions \r\nis not straightforward because the impacts of climate change affect people and nature in many different ways requiring different adaptation \r\nactions. Thereby, goals that accompany these actions are diverse. Goals can relate to health, water or food security, jobs and employment, \r\npoverty eradication and social equity, biodiversity and ecosystem services at international, national and local levels."


id: 8d716afce3c110fa1445f00e8c4f651c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"While vital for international finance, coordination and assessment, the global goals set forth by these frameworks \r\nand conventions do not necessarily provide sufficient guidance to plan, implement or evaluate specific adaptation \r\nefforts at the community level. Specifying goals of adaptation is harder than setting goals for reducing emissions of \r\nclimate-warming GHG emissions. For instance, emission reduction effort is ultimately measured by the total amount \r\nof GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, adaptation aims to reduce risk and vulnerability from climate change \r\nand helps to enhance well-being in each individual community worldwide."


id: 6842af0749045e95e872bb5ece314ef3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Climate impacts, such as stronger heat waves, longer droughts, more frequent floods, accelerating sea level rise and storm surges, are already \r\nbeing observed in some regions, and people around the world are increasingly perceiving changing climates, regarding these changes as \r\nsignificant and considering climate action as a matter of high urgency. Reducing climate risk to levels that avoid threatening private or social \r\nnorms and ensuring sustainable development will require immediate and long-term adaptation efforts by governments, business, civil society \r\nand individuals at a scale and speed significantly faster than the current trends."


id: 6b1c5001939260a44cf6c42fa201a017
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Current observed climate impacts and expected future risks include stronger and longer heat waves, unprecedented \r\ndroughts and floods, accelerating sea level rise and storm surges affecting many geographies and communities. \r\nPeople around the world are increasingly perceiving changing climates, regarding these changes as significant and \r\nconsidering climate action as a matter of high urgency. In particular, marginalised and poor people, as well as island \r\nand coastal communities, experience relatively higher risks and vulnerability. The available evidence suggests that \r\ncurrent adaptation efforts may be insufficient to help ensure sustainable development and other societal goals in \r\nmany communities worldwide even under the most optimistic GHG emissions scenarios."


id: 3d9fff15cfae250169d93cec5903f371
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Climate change adaptation is, therefore, urgent to the extent that meeting important societal goals requires \r\nimmediate and long-term action by governments, business, civil society and individuals at a scale and speed \r\nsignificantly faster than that represented by current trends."


id: f1de0e4e93b4cc0f68952f7b72294552
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"The success of climate change adaptation is dependent on the extent to which relevant actions reduce risk and vulnerability, as well as achieve \r\ntheir respective goals. At a global scale, these goals are set and tracked according to international frameworks and conventions. At smaller \r\nscales, such as local and national, goals are dependent on the specific impacts being managed, the actions being taken and the relevant scale. \r\nWhile success can take shape as uniquely as goals can, the degree to which an adaptation is feasible, effective and conforms to principles of \r\njustice represents important attributes for measuring success across actions. Adaptation responses that lead to increased risk and impacts are \r\nconsidered maladaptation."


id: d009ef3ab688c2743d1a7d5ded55281a
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"Altogether, adaptation success is dependent on the extent to which adaptation actions achieve their respective \r\ngoals of reducing climate risk, increasing resilience and pursuing other climate-related societal goals. Viewed \r\nglobally, successful adaptation consists of actions anticipated to make significant contributions to meeting SDGs, \r\nsuch as ending extreme poverty, hunger and discrimination, and reduce risks to ecosystems, water, food systems, \r\nhuman settlements, and health and well-being. Viewed locally, successful adaptation consists of actions that help \r\ncommunities meet their diverse goals, including reducing anticipated current and future risks, enhancing capacity \r\nto adapt and transform, avoiding maladaptation, yielding benefits greater than costs and serving vulnerable \r\npopulations, and arising from an inclusive, evidence-based and equitable decision process."


id: 33adb1ad4b94706bea41097d7227ecbc
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"While success can be unique to an adaptation action, there are important attributes that constitute it as a successful \r\nsolution. These include the extent to which an action is considered feasible, effective and conforms to principles of \r\njustice."


id: fc672ee46537c9d464b7d926236a7430
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"action across members of society; procedural justice refers to ensuring the opportunity for fairness, transparency, \r\ninclusion and impartiality in the decision making of an action; and recognitional justice insists on recognising and \r\nincluding those who are or may be most affected by an action."


id: 64873ceef42b863faed7094b0315159f
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"These attributes of adaptation success can be assessed throughout the adaptation process of planning, \r\nimplementation, Monitoring & Evaluation, adjustment and learning. However, at the same time, the success of \r\nmany adaptation actions depends strongly on context and time. For instance, the effectiveness of adaptation will \r\ndepend on the success of GHG mitigation efforts, as adaptation has strong synergies and trade-offs with mitigation \r\nefforts"


id: 2e68fd25d09374ddcfea99b2144b21ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Continuing and expanding current adaptation efforts can reduce some climate risks. But even with emission reductions sufficient to meet the \r\nParis Agreement goals, transformational adaptation will be necessary."


id: ce176fad1dba52dca2bfa54420fa5bdb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Over six assessment reports, the IPCC has documented transformative changes in the Earth's climate and ecosystems \r\ncaused by human actions. These changes are now unequivocal and projected to become even more significant in \r\nthe years and decades ahead. This AR6 report also highlights climate adaptation actions people are taking and can \r\ntake in response to these significant changes in the climate system."


id: 8b853c25fb8c09d2b1fda4735393396
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Some adaptation is incremental, which only modifies existing systems. Other actions are transformational, \r\nleading to changes in the fundamental characteristics of a system. For instance, building a seawall to protect a \r\ncoastal community from flooding might exemplify incremental adaptation. Changing land use regulations in that \r\ncommunity and establishing a programme of managed retreat might exemplify transformational adaptation. \r\nThere is no definitive line between incremental and transformational adaptation. Some incremental actions stay \r\nincremental. Others may expand the future space of solutions. For instance, including climate risk in mortgages and \r\ninsurance might at first seem incremental but might lead to more transformational change over time."


id: 8ee5a4e073c297671c3c985f59112b06
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content:
"Transformation can be deliberate, envisioned and intended by at least some societal actors, or forced, arising \r\nwithout explicit intent."


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"Deliberate transformational adaptation is not without risks because change can disturb existing power relationships \r\nand can unfold in difficult to predict and unintended ways. But transformational adaptation is important to consider \r\nbecause it may be needed to avoid intolerable risks from climate change and to help meet development goals as \r\narticulated in the SDGs. In addition, some types of societal transformation may be inevitable and deliberate rather \r\nthan forced transformation and may bring society closer to its goals."


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"Some types of transformation may be inevitable because the amount of transformational adaptation needed to \r\navoid intolerable risks depends in part on the level of GHG mitigation. Low concentration pathways consistent with \r\nParis Agreement goals require deliberate transformations that lead to significant and rapid change in energy, land, \r\nurban and infrastructure, and industrial systems. Even with low concentration pathways, some transformational \r\nadaptation will be necessary to limit intolerable risks. But with higher concentration pathways, more extensive \r\ntransformational adaptation would be required to limit (though not entirely avoid) intolerable risks. In such \r\ncircumstances, insufficient deliberate transformation could lead to undesirable forced transformations."


id: a9d86726d6f65dc02967bb107de0e05f
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"Since IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, many new sources of knowledge have been employed to provide better understanding of climate change \r\nrisks, impacts, vulnerability and also societal responses through adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. This new, more integrative \r\nassessment focuses more on risk and solutions, social justice, different forms of knowledge including IK and LK, the role of transformation and \r\nthe urgency of fast climate actions."


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"The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has played a prominent role in science-policy-society interactions on the \r\nclimate issue since 1988 and has advanced in interdisciplinary climate change assessment since AR5. Many new \r\nsources of knowledge have been employed to provide better understanding of climate change risks, impacts, \r\nvulnerability and also societal responses through adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development."


id: 7300d76501e50f83230c0ec6ae2106e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"This AR6 assessment focuses more on risk and solutions. The risk framing for the first time spans all three Working \r\nGroups. It includes risks from the responses to climate change, considers dynamic and cascading consequences, \r\ndescribes with more geographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such risks over a range of \r\nscenarios. The solutions framing encompasses the interconnections among climate responses, sustainable \r\ndevelopment and transformation, and the implications for governance across scales within the public and private \r\nsectors. The assessment therefore includes climate-related decision making and risk management, climate resilient \r\ndevelopment pathways, implementation and evaluation of adaptation, and also limits to adaptation and loss and \r\ndamage."


id: e18d8140a202c99050106187ba597120
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"The AR6 emphasises the emergent issue on social justice and different forms of knowledge. As climate change \r\nimpacts and responses are implemented, there is heightened awareness of the ways that climate responses \r\ninteract with issues of justice and social progress. In this report, there is expanded attention on inequity in climate \r\nvulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and \r\ndifferential impacts, and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature is also accompanied by increased \r\nconsideration and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and associated scholars."


id: aef255903b11a45e66427662012e84e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"The AR6 has a more extensive focus on the role of transformation and the urgency of fast climate actions in meeting \r\nsocietal goals. This report assesses extensive literatures with an increasing diversity of topics and geographical areas \r\nwith more sectoral and regional details. The literature also increasingly evaluates the lived experiences of climate \r\nchange--the physical changes underway, the impacts for people and ecosystems, the perceptions of the risks, and \r\nadaptation and mitigation responses planned and implemented."


id: 7e3a0c5040bef580aa249ddee7fe2fc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"The assessment in AR6 is more integrative across multiple disciplines and combines experts across Working Groups, \r\nchapters, papers and disciplines, such as natural and social sciences, medical and health sciences, engineering, \r\nhumanities, law and business administration. The emphasis on knowledge for action has also included the role of \r\npublic communication, stories and narratives within assessment and associated outreach."


id: cd728787333d3a09a5abb17a8769bcbc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK), Mike D. Morecroft (UK), \r\nYongyut Trisurat (Thailand)"


id: 39b51b2d963949d0911b874a139718a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Parmesan, C., M.D. Morecroft, Y. Trisurat, R. Adrian, G.Z. Anshari, A. Arneth, Q. Gao, P. Gonzalez, R. Harris, J. Price, \r\nN. Stevens, and G.H. Talukdarr, 2022: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services. In: Climate Change \r\n2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 197-377, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.004."


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"by >2 weeks {2.3.3.4; Figure 2.4}. Changes in flow have led to reduced \r\nconnectivity in rivers (high confidence) {2.3.3.2; Figure  2.3}. Indirect \r\nchanges include alterations in river morphology, substrate composition, \r\noxygen concentrations and thermal regime in lakes (very high \r\nconfidence) {2.3.3.2; 2.3.3.3}. Dissolved oxygen concentrations have \r\ntypically declined and primary productivity has increased with warming. \r\nWarming and browning (increase in organic matter) have occurred in \r\nboreal freshwaters, with both positive and negative repercussions on \r\nwater temperature profiles (lower vs. upper water) (high confidence) \r\nand primary productivity (medium confidence) as well as reduced water \r\nquality (high confidence) {2.4.4.1; Figure 2.5}."


id: 36b4a451ff2b4a97711945d8e70df582
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5993
content:
"Chapter 2, building on prior assessments1, provides a global \r\nassessment of the observed impacts and projected risks of climate \r\nchange to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including their \r\ncomponent species and the services they provide to people. Where \r\npossible, differences among regions, taxonomic groups and ecosystem \r\ntypes are presented. Adaptation options to reduce risks to ecosystems \r\nand people are assessed."


id: 12a0ca337681989f2ad47a1498a127d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Multiple lines of evidence, combined with the strong and \r\nconsistent trends observed on every continent, make it very \r\nlikely2 that many observed changes in the ranges, phenology, \r\nphysiology and morphology of terrestrial and freshwater \r\nspecies can be attributed to regional and global climate changes, \r\nparticularly increases in the frequency and severity of extreme \r\nevents (very high confidence3\r\n) {2.3.1; 2.3.3.5; 2.4.2; 2.4.5; Table 2.2; \r\nTable 2.3; Table SM2.1; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter}.\r\nThe most severe impacts are occurring in the most vulnerable species \r\nand ecosystems, characterised by inherent physiological, ecological or \r\nbehavioural traits that limit their abilities to adapt, as well as those \r\nmost exposed to climatic hazards (high confidence) {2.4.2.2; 2.4.2.6; \r\n2.4.2.8; 2.4.5; 2.6.1; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter}."


id: 65d3133933d97f768f1a610fb83e9896
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13603
content:
"Climate change has increased wildlife diseases (high \r\nconfidence). Experimental studies provide high confidence in the \r\nattribution of observed increased disease severity, outbreak frequency \r\nand the emergence of novel vectors and their diseases into new areas \r\nto recent trends in climate and extreme events. Many vector-borne \r\ndiseases and those caused by ticks, helminth worms and the chytrid \r\nfungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) have shifted polewards \r\nand upwards and are emerging in new regions (high confidence). In \r\nthe high Arctic and at high elevations in Nepal, there is high confidence\r\nthat climate change has driven the expansion of vector-borne diseases \r\n(VBDs) that infect humans. {2.4.2.7, 7.2.2.1, 9.8.2.4, 10.4.7.1, 12.3.1.4, \r\n13.7.1.2, 14.4.6.4; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in this chapter}"


id: 92f3b95952dfd920e5718c1425aae453
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20636
content:
"Forest insect pests have expanded northward, and the severity \r\nand extent of outbreaks have increased in northern North \r\nAmerica and northern Eurasia due to warmer winters reducing \r\ninsect mortality and longer growing seasons favouring more \r\ngenerations per year (high confidence) {2.4.2.1; 2.4.4.3.3}."


id: ee716f2f648e20c80440764312128a39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34981
content:
"New studies since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and \r\nthe Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5) (with \r\ndata for >12,000 species globally) show changes consistent \r\nwith climate change. Where attribution was assessed (>4,000 \r\nspecies globally), approximately half of the species had shifted \r\ntheir ranges to higher latitudes or elevations and two-thirds of \r\nspring phenological events had advanced, driven by regional \r\nclimate changes (very high confidence). Shifts in species ranges \r\nare altering community make-up, with exotic species exhibiting a \r\ngreater ability to adapt to climate change than natives, especially in \r\nmore northern latitudes, potentially leading to new invasive species \r\n(medium confidence) {2.4.2.3.3; 2.4.2.7}. New analyses demonstrate \r\nthat prior reports underestimated impacts due to the complexity of \r\nbiological responses to climate change (high confidence). {2.4.2.1; \r\n2.4.2.3; 2.4.2.4; 2.4.2.5; 2.4.5; Table 2.2; Table SM2.1; Table 2.3}"


id: 93554b585baae6eee0f6e84a592e4e56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20695
content:
"Local population extinctions caused by climate change have \r\nbeen widespread among plants and animals, detected in 47% \r\nof 976 species examined and associated with increases in the \r\nhottest yearly temperatures (very high confidence) {2.4.2.2}.\r\nClimate-driven population extinctions have been higher in tropical \r\n(55%) than in temperate (39%) regions, higher in freshwater (74%) \r\nthan in marine (51%) or terrestrial (46%) habitats, and higher in \r\nanimals (50%) than in plants (39%). Extreme heat waves have led to \r\nlocal fish dying out in lakes and mass mortality events in birds, bats, \r\nmammals and fish {2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.7.2, Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES \r\nin this chapter}. Intensification of droughts contributes to the \r\ndisappearance of small or ephemeral ponds that often harbour rare \r\nand endemic species. {2.4.2.2; Cross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES in this \r\nchapter}"


id: 50bb859942257a885686d2535f4b92b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10144
content:
"Responses of freshwater species are strongly related to changes \r\nin the physical environment (high confidence){2.3.3; 2.4.2.3.2}. \r\nGlobal coverage of quantitative observations in freshwater ecosystems \r\nhas increased since AR5. Water temperature has increased in rivers \r\n(up to 1degC per decade) and lakes (up to 0.45degC per decade) {2.3.3.1; \r\nFigure 2.2}. The extent of ice cover has declined by 25% and duration "


id: 9502d4e23de4a1f717fae2b7b95085c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20951
content:
"Global extinctions or near-extinctions have been linked to \r\nregional climate change in three documented cases {2.4.2.2}. The "


id: 94eb4377ee7d5e9d1fe5c8d2bf2fe09b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20938
content:
"ate and boreal ecosystems around the world (high confidence), \r\ndamaging key aspects of ecological integrity. This degrades the \r\nsurvival of vegetation, habitat for biodiversity, water supplies, carbon \r\nsequestration, and other key aspects of the integrity of ecosystems and \r\ntheir ability to provide services for people (high confidence). {2.4.3.1; \r\n2.4.4.2; 2.4.4.3; 2.4.4.4; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1}"


id: 25bdbfbc1006658a84423589e5e66e77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3365
content:
"cloud forest-restricted golden toad (Incilius periglenes) was extinct by \r\n1990 in a nature preserve in Costa Rica following successive extreme \r\ndroughts (medium confidence). The white sub-species of the lemuroid \r\nringtail possum (Hemibelideus lemuroides) in Queensland, Australia, \r\ndisappeared after heat waves in 2005 (high confidence): intensive \r\ncensuses found only 2 individuals in 2009. The Bramble Cay melomys \r\n(BC melomys, Melomys rubicola) was not seen after 2009 and was \r\ndeclared extinct in 2016, with sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm \r\nsurge associated with climate change being the most probable drivers \r\n(high confidence). Additionally, the interaction of climate change and \r\nchytrid fungus (Bd) has driven many of the observed global declines \r\nin amphibian populations and the extinction of many species (high \r\nconfidence) {2.4.2.7.1}."


id: 2d91bb7f67d726e37cde96b10a7cd910
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4607
content:
"A growing number of studies have documented genetic evolution \r\nwithin populations in response to recent climate change (very high \r\nconfidence). To date, genetic changes remain within the limits of \r\nknown variation for species (high confidence). Controlled selection \r\nexperiments and field observations indicate that evolution \r\nwould not prevent a species becoming extinct if its climate \r\nspace disappears globally (high confidence). Climate hazards \r\noutside of those to which species have adapted are occurring on all \r\ncontinents (high confidence). More frequent and intense extreme \r\nevents, superimposed on longer-term climate trends, have pushed \r\nsensitive species and ecosystems towards tipping points that are \r\nbeyond the ecological and evolutionary capacity to adapt, causing \r\nabrupt and possibly irreversible changes (medium confidence). \r\n{2.3.1; 2.3.3; 2.4.2.6; 2.4.2.8; 2.6.1; Cross-Chapter Boxes ILLNESS and \r\nEXTREMES in this chapter}"


id: 29a8734dbd610a1cff45f35406ae89ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3988
content:
"Drought-induced tree mortality attributed to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change has caused up to 20% loss of trees in the period \r\n1945-2007 in three regions in Africa and North America (high \r\nconfidence). It has also potentially contributed to over 100 other \r\ncases of drought-induced tree mortality across Africa, Asia, Australia, \r\nEurope, and North and South America (high confidence). Field \r\nobservations have documented post-mortality vegetation shifts (high \r\nconfidence). Timber cutting, agricultural expansion, air pollution and \r\nother non-climate factors also contribute to tree death. Increases in \r\nforest insect pests driven by climate change have contributed to tree \r\nmortality and shifts in carbon dynamics in many temperate and boreal \r\nforest areas (very high confidence). The direction of changes in carbon \r\nbalance and wildfires following insect outbreaks depends on the local \r\nforest insect communities (medium confidence). {2.4.4.3; Table  2.3; \r\nTable SM2.1}"


id: b0b7ad1412611cb22a1fcd7417702e44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25322
content:
"Terrestrial ecosystems currently remove more carbon from \r\nthe atmosphere, 2.5-4.3 Gt yr-1, than they emit (+1.6 +- \r\n0.7 Gt y-1), and so are currently a net sink of -1.9 +- 1.1 Gt y-1. \r\nIntact tropical rainforests, Arctic permafrost, peatlands and \r\nother healthy high-carbon ecosystems provide a vital global \r\necosystem service of preventing the release of stored carbon \r\n(high confidence). Terrestrial ecosystems contain stocks of ~3500 \r\nGtC in vegetation, permafrost, and soils, three to five times the amount \r\nof carbon in unextracted fossil fuels (high confidence) and >4 times the \r\ncarbon currently in the atmosphere (high confidence). Tropical forests \r\nand Arctic permafrost contain the highest ecosystem carbon stocks in \r\naboveground vegetation and in soil, respectively, in the world (high "


id: d63810ef897357c211059b93c53d3c34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31218
content:
"confidence). Deforestation, draining, burning or drying of peatlands, \r\nand thawing of Arctic permafrost, due to climate change, has already \r\nshifted some areas of these ecosystems from carbon sinks to carbon \r\nsources (high confidence). {2.4.3.6; 2.4.3.8; 2.4.3.9; 2.4.4.4}"


id: 8388c322965f77f9a0e5e5ec0505a948
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18227
content:
"Evidence indicates that climate change is affecting many spe\u0002cies, ecosystems and ecological processes that provide eco\u0002system services connected to human health, livelihoods, and \r\nwell-being (medium confidence). These services include climate \r\nregulation, water and food provisioning, pollination of crops, tourism \r\nand recreation. It is difficult to establish full end-to-end attribution \r\nfrom climatic changes to changes in a given ecosystem service and \r\nto identify the location and timing of impacts. The lack of attribution \r\nstudies may delay specific adaptation planning, but there is evidence \r\nthat protection and restoration of ecosystems builds resilience of ser\u0002vice provision. {2.2; 2.3; 2.4.2.7; 2.4.4; 2.4.5; 2.5.3; 2.5.4; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; \r\n2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Boxes NATURAL, ILLNESS and EX\u0002TREMES in this chapter; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7; Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; Box 5.3; section 5.4.3.4}"


id: e3691dd1ef4b0d30732c760cff546af4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33261
content:
"Climate change increases risks of biome shifts on up to 35% \r\nof global land at >=4degC GSAT warming, that emission reductions \r\ncould limit to <15% for <2degC warming (medium confidence). \r\nUnder high-warming scenarios, models indicate shifts \r\nof extensive parts of the Amazon rainforest to drier and lower\u0002biomass vegetation (medium  confidence), poleward shifts of \r\nboreal forest into treeless tundra across the Arctic, and upslope \r\nshifts of montane forests into alpine grassland (high confidence).\r\nArea at high risk of biome shifts from changes in climate and land use \r\ncombined can double or triple compared to climate change alone \r\n(medium confidence). Novel ecosystems, with no historical analogue, \r\nare expected to become increasingly common in the future (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3, 2.4.2.3.3, 2.5.2; 2.5.4, Figure  2.11; Table  2.5; \r\nTable SM2.4; Table SM2.5}"


id: ff491923138dc12c415b24c9249c215e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37714
content:
"Climate change increases risks to fundamental aspects of ter\u0002restrial and freshwater ecosystems, with the potential for spe\u0002cies' extinctions to reach 60% at 5degC global mean surface air \r\ntemperature (GSAT) warming (high confidence), biome shifts \r\n(changes in the major vegetation form of an ecosystem) on \r\n15% (at 2degC warming) to 35% (at 4degC warming) of global land \r\n(medium confidence), and increases in the area burned by wild\u0002fire of 35% (at 2degC warming) to 40% (at 4degC warming) of glob\u0002al land (medium confidence). {2.5.1; 2.5.2; 2.5.3; 2.5.4; Figure 2.6; \r\nFigure 2.7; Figure 2.8; Figure 2.9; Figure 2.11; Table 2.5; Table SM2.2; \r\nTableSM2.5; Cross-Chapter Box  DEEP in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1}"


id: 36d85a1ebdf6d93b28b472012d47fa88
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6015
content:
"The risk of wildfire increases along with an increase in global \r\ntemperatures (high confidence). With 4degC GSAT warming by \r\n2100, wildfire frequency is projected to have a net increase of \r\n~30% (medium confidence). Increased wildfire, combined with soil \r\nerosion due to deforestation, could degrade water supplies (medium \r\nconfidence). For ecosystems with an historically low frequency of fires, \r\na projected 4degC global temperature rise increases the risk of fires, with \r\npotential increases in tree mortality and the conversion of extensive \r\nparts of the Amazon rainforest to drier and lower-biomass vegetation \r\n(medium confidence). {2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3}"


id: 48dde41551294f0d0165d7f2aea1b7c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8844
content:
"Continued climate change substantially increases the risk \r\nof carbon stored in the biosphere being released into the \r\natmosphere due to increases in processes such as wildfire, tree \r\nmortality, insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying and permafrost \r\nthaw (high confidence). These phenomena exacerbate self-reinforcing \r\nfeedbacks between emissions from high-carbon ecosystems (that \r\ncurrently store ~3000-4000 GtC) and increasing global temperatures. \r\nComplex interactions of climate change, land use change (LUC), carbon \r\ndioxide fluxes and vegetation changes, combined with insect outbreaks \r\nand other disturbances, will regulate the future carbon balance of the \r\nbiosphere. These processes are incompletely represented in current earth \r\nsystem models (ESMs). The exact timing and magnitude of climate-\r\nbiosphere feedbacks and potential tipping points of carbon loss are \r\ncharacterised by large uncertainty, but studies of feedbacks indicate "


id: c3a4eb7e4f384f45bf3e031351593517
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28350
content:
"of micro-climate or hydrology, adjustment of site management plans \r\nand facilitating the dispersal of vulnerable species to new locations by \r\nincreasing habitat connectivity and by active translocation of species. \r\nAdaptation can reduce risks but cannot prevent all damaging impacts \r\nso is not a substitute for reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions \r\n(high confidence). {2.2; 2.3; 2.3.1; 2.3.2; 2.4.5; 2.5.1.3; 2.5.1.4; 2.5.2; \r\n2.5.3.1; 2.5.3.5; 2.5.4; 2.6.1; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; 2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.8; \r\nCross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter}"


id: ac1b777b04932ba41a1b30a52de1ca82
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24601
content:
"that increased ecosystem carbon losses can cause large temperature \r\nincreases in the future (medium confidence). (section 5.4, Figure 5.29 \r\nand Table  5.4 in (Canadell et  al., 2021)), {2.5.2.7; 2.5.2.8; 2.5.2.9; \r\n2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3; 2.5.3.4; 2.5.3.5; Figure  2.10; Figure  2.11; Table  2.4; \r\nTable 2.5; Table SM2.2 Table SM2.5}"


id: 5c2aea526c8cd67d7c310291463527de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12014
content:
"The resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services to climate \r\nchange can be increased by human adaptation actions including \r\necosystem protection and restoration (high confidence).\r\nEcological theory and observations show that a wide range of actions \r\ncan reduce risks to species and ecosystem integrity. This includes \r\nminimising additional stresses or disturbances; reducing fragmentation; \r\nincreasing natural habitat extent, connectivity and heterogeneity; \r\nmaintaining taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity and \r\nredundancy; and protecting small-scale refugia where micro-climate \r\nconditions can allow species to persist (high confidence). Adaptation \r\nalso includes actions to aid the recovery of ecosystems following \r\nextreme events. Understanding the characteristics of vulnerable \r\nspecies can assist in early warning systems to minimise negative \r\nimpacts and inform management intervention. {2.3; Figure 2.1; 2.5.3.1, \r\n2.6.2, Table 2.6, 2.6.5, 2.6.7, 2.6.8}"


id: eda8c4eb285bd6a829cd96d1732d8f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34854
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can deliver climate change \r\nadaptation for people, with multiple additional benefits \r\nincluding those for biodiversity (high confidence). An increasing \r\nbody of evidence demonstrates that climatic risks to people including \r\nfloods, drought, fire and overheating, can be lowered by a range of \r\nEbA techniques in urban and rural areas (medium confidence). EbA \r\nforms part of a wider range of nature-based solutions (NbS); some \r\nhave mitigation co-benefits, including the protection and restoration \r\nof forests and other high-carbon ecosystems as well as agro-ecological \r\nfarming (AF) practices. However, EbA and other NbS are still not widely \r\nimplemented. {2.2; 2.5.3.1; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; 2.6.5; 2.6.6, 2.6.7; \r\nTable 2.7; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1}"


id: 6edb72a310a2f1ac59161a5ea2fafcfe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"To realise potential benefits and avoid harm, it is essential that \r\nEbA is deployed in the right places and with the right approaches \r\nfor that area, with inclusive governance (high confidence). \r\nInterdisciplinary scientific information and practical expertise, including \r\nIndigenous and local knowledge (IKLK), are essential to effectiveness \r\n(high confidence). There is a large risk of maladaptation where this does \r\nnot happen (high confidence). {1.4.2; 2.2; 2.6; Table 2.7; Box 2.2; Figure \r\nBox 2.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1; 5.14.2}"


id: d1725f2058c53eab9ffe30c4dc1615fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30489
content:
"EbA and other NbS are themselves vulnerable to climate change \r\nimpacts (high confidence). They need to take account of climate \r\nchange if they are to remain effective and they will be increasingly \r\nunder threat at higher warming levels. NbS cannot be regarded as an \r\nalternative to, or a reason to delay, deep cuts in GHG emissions. (high \r\nconfidence) {2.6.3, 2.6.5; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this \r\nchapter}"


id: 931ab7f8b37f96a22c8ac33eb07bf9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20658
content:
"Since AR5, many adaptation plans and strategies have been \r\ndeveloped to protect ecosystems and biodiversity, but there is \r\nlimited evidence of the extent to which adaptation is taking place \r\nand virtually no evaluation of the effectiveness of adaptation \r\nmeasures in the scientific literature (medium confidence). This \r\nis an important evidence gap that needs to be addressed, to ensure a \r\nbaseline is available against which to judge effectiveness and develop \r\nand refine adaptation in future. Many proposed adaptation measures \r\nhave not been implemented (low confidence). {2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; \r\n2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.8; 2.7}"


id: bf132b6b4a899b170bb8f841bf4e3761
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27614
content:
"Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural ecosystems \r\nare key adaptation measures in view of the clear evidence that \r\ndamage and degradation of ecosystems exacerbates the impacts \r\nof climate change on biodiversity and people (high confidence). \r\nEcosystem services that are under threat from a combination of climate \r\nchange and other anthropogenic pressures include climate change \r\nmitigation, flood risk management, food provisioning and water supply \r\n(high confidence). Adaptation strategies that treat climate, biodiversity \r\nand human society as coupled systems will be most effective. {2.3; \r\nFigure 2.1; 2.5.4; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Boxes NATURAL and \r\nILLNESS in this chapter}"


id: e3ea342bd0e91d5c76a63e33b24cffe5
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content:
"Ecosystem restoration and resilience building cannot prevent \r\nall impacts of climate change, and adaptation planning \r\nneeds to manage inevitable changes to species distributions, \r\necosystem structure and processes (very high confidence). \r\nActions to manage inevitable change include the local modification "


id: 7920c23759cc0d7ecc4368d4060d736a
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"and ecosystem services (high confidence). Climate change places \r\nadditional stress on ecosystem integrity and functioning, adding \r\nurgency to taking action. Low-intensity sustainable management, \r\nincluding that performed by Indigenous Peoples, is an integral part \r\nof some protected areas, and can support effective adaptation and \r\nmaintain ecosystem health. Food and fibre production in other areas \r\nwill need to be efficient, sustainable and adapted to climate change to \r\nmeet the needs of the human population. (high confidence) {Figure 2.1; \r\n2.5.4; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.7}"


id: ac32d25c3125f683a67f143384ae899c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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"Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and species are often less \r\ndegraded on land managed by Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities than on other land (medium confidence). Involving \r\nindigenous and local institutions is a key element for developing \r\nsuccessful adaptation strategies. IKLK includes a wide variety of \r\nresource-use practices and ecosystem stewardship strategies that \r\nconserve and enhance both wild and domestic biodiversity. {2.6.5; \r\n2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter; Chapter 15; \r\nBox 18.6; CCP2.4.1; CCP2.4.3; Box CCP7.1}"


id: 168d8ea40cf63523a07c5d7b3fe99d6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events, \r\nthat WGI has attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions, \r\nare compressing the timeline available for natural systems to \r\nadapt and also impeding our ability to identify, develop and \r\nimplement solutions (medium confidence). There is now an \r\nurgent need to build resilience and assist recovery following extreme \r\nevents. This, combined with long-term changes in baseline conditions, \r\nmeans that implementing adaptation and mitigation measures cannot \r\nbe delayed if these are to be fully effective. {2.3; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox EXTREMES in this chapter}"


id: 928707134cdd9d270072993f32775ec9
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"expected to become increasingly important as drivers of change over \r\nthe coming decades (Ciais et al., 2013; Settele et al., 2014; IPBES, 2019; \r\nIPCC, 2019c)."


id: 3e7172f012528d30b27da0a1ceda043c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 7201
content:
"The Working Group II Summary for Policymakers of the AR5 stated that \r\n'many terrestrial and freshwater species have shifted their geographic \r\nranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and \r\nspecies interactions in response to ongoing climate change' (IPCC, \r\n2014d). Based on long-term observed changes across the regions, \r\nit was estimated that approximately 20-30% of plant and animal \r\nspecies are at risk of extinction when global mean temperatures rise \r\n2-3degC above pre-industrial levels (Fischlin et  al., 2007). In addition, \r\nthe WGII AR5 Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2014e) broadly suggested that \r\nautonomous adaptation by ecosystems and wild species might occur, \r\nand proposed human-assisted adaptations to minimise negative \r\nclimate change impacts."


id: 5bf222c57f833940713fba0699a41fb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Assessment of the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems \r\nhas been limited in previous assessments, and inter-linkages between \r\nterrestrial and freshwater processes have not been fully explored \r\n(Settele et al., 2014; IPBES, 2019). Improved treatment of impacts on \r\nterrestrial and freshwater systems is critical, considering the revisions of \r\ninternational sustainability goals and targets, especially the conclusion \r\nthat many of the proposed post-2020 targets of the CBD cannot be met \r\ndue to climate change impacts (Arneth et al., 2020)."


id: 3b4c4103d89767f3881e76b7934173bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 6683
content:
"Risk assessments for species, communities, key ecosystems and their \r\nservices were based on the risk assessment framework introduced \r\nin the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014b). Assessments of observed changes in \r\nbiological systems emphasise detecting and attributing the impacts of \r\nclimate change on ecological and evolutionary processes, particularly \r\nfreshwater ecosystems, and ecosystem processes such as wildfires, that \r\nwere superficially assessed in previous reports. Where appropriate, \r\nassessment of interactions between climate change and other human \r\nactivities is provided."


id: 6ecf982b6c35face952cfa04b97e6206
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"Land use and land cover change (LULCC) as well as the unsustainable \r\nexploitation of resources in terrestrial and freshwater systems continue \r\nto be major factors contributing to the loss of natural ecosystems and \r\nbiodiversity (high confidence). Fertiliser input, pollution of waterways, \r\ndam construction and the extraction of freshwater for irrigation put \r\nadditional pressure on biodiversity and alter ecosystem function (Shin \r\net al., 2019). Likewise, for biodiversity, invasive alien species have been \r\nidentified as a major threat, especially in freshwater systems, on islands \r\nand in coastal regions (high confidence) (IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018e; \r\nIPBES, 2018c; IPBES, 2018d; IPBES, 2019). Climate change and CO2 are "


id: 220d9fee20e76a22753730e08c5d16dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"services such as food and water; regulating services such as regulation \r\nof floods, drought, land degradation, and disease; supporting services \r\nsuch as soil formation and nutrient cycling; and cultural services such \r\nas recreational, spiritual, religious, and other nonmaterial benefits' \r\n(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)."


id: bfb78049f5f89a880d9801a429c71316
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 27721
content:
"For biological systems, we use the framework for detection and \r\nattribution outlined in AR5, in which biological changes observed \r\nare not attributed to global but rather to local or regional climate \r\nchanges (Parmesan et al., 2013; Cramer et al., 2014). However, global \r\ndistribution of regional responses is desirable to achieve generality, and \r\ndata in prior reports were concentrated from the Northern Hemisphere. \r\nThe critique of 'global' studies by (Feeley et al., 2017) argues that their \r\nnaming is misleading, that most of them are far from global, and that \r\na considerable geographic and taxonomic bias remains. This bias is \r\ndiminishing, as regional data from the Southern Hemisphere is added \r\nand there is now representation from every continent."


id: 35c143337f6ae8c45220b4aa149ef1c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 5869
content:
"The IPBES renamed the concept 'nature's contributions to people' \r\nand broadened the definition to 'the contributions, both positive and \r\nnegative, of living nature (i.e., diversity of organisms, ecosystems, \r\nand their associated ecological and evolutionary processes) to the \r\nquality of life for people. Beneficial contributions from nature include \r\nsuch things as food provision, water purification, flood control, and \r\nartistic inspiration, whereas detrimental contributions include disease \r\ntransmission and predation that damages people or their assets' \r\n(IPBES, 2019). The concept was modified to include more social \r\nviewpoints and broaden the analyses beyond narrow economic \r\nstock-and-flow valuation approaches (Diaz et  al., 2018). IPBES \r\ndeveloped a classification of 18 categories of ecosystem services (see \r\nTable 2.1)."


id: cd4f1a80e1a28b201cf2078417dff4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 29849
content:
"For ecosystem services that do not have published scientific \r\ninformation to establish unambiguous links to climate change, the \r\nclimate-species-ecosystem links are assessed. Global ecological \r\nassessments, including the Global Biodiversity Assessment (Heywood \r\net  al., 1995), the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium \r\nEcosystem Assessment, 2005), and the IPBES Global Assessment \r\nReport (IPBES, 2019) have synthesised scientific information on the \r\necosystem-ecosystem services link, but a full assessment from climate \r\nchange to ecosystem services is often impeded by limited quantitative \r\nstudies that span this entire spectrum (see (Mengist et al., 2020) for a \r\nreview of this gap in montane regions)."


id: 2dde885eefe4c1746e3a710f999d100a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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content:
"IPCC and IPBES are collaborating to address gaps in the knowledge \r\nabout the effects of climate change on ecosystem services (Portner \r\net  al., 2021). Table  2.1 provides a guide for finding information on \r\nclimate change and individual ecosystem services in the AR6."


id: b13021f2933d730bd103fb6f372e5e54
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content:
"Ecosystems provide services essential for human survival and well-being. \r\nThe Millennium Ecosystem Assessment defined ecosystem services as \r\n'the benefits people obtain from ecosystems' including 'provisioning "


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content:
"tipping points, beyond which abrupt and possibly irreversible changes \r\nare occurring (Harris et al., 2018a; Jones et al., 2018; Hoffmann et al., \r\n2019b; Prober et al., 2019; Berdugo et al., 2020; Bergstrom et al., 2021). \r\nIncreases in the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts and \r\naridity, floods, fires and extreme storms have been observed in many \r\nregions (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Ummenhofer and Meehl, 2017), and \r\nthese trends are projected to continue (high confidence) (Section 3.2.2.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES this Chapter) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., \r\n2018; Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: c704155031ce33cf42e7428151406f60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:00:58
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vector_id: 28893
content:
"In AR6, Working Group I (IPCC, 2021a) describes changes in physical \r\nclimate systems using the term 'climatic impact-drivers' (CIDs), which \r\ncan have detrimental, beneficial or neutral effects on a system. In \r\ncontrast, the literature on natural systems tends to focus on hazards, \r\nwhich include natural or human-induced physical events, impacts, or \r\ntrends with the potential to cause negative effects on ecosystems and \r\nenvironmental resources. Hazards are affected by current and future \r\nchanges in climate, including altered climate variability and extreme \r\nevents (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Hazards can occur suddenly (e.g., a heat \r\nwave or heavy rain event), or more slowly (e.g., land loss, degradation \r\nand erosion linked to multiple climate hazards compounding). Observed \r\nexposure and risks to protected areas are assessed in Section 2.5.3.1.1. \r\nSee also Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter."


