# document

id: db892f370237b758cb30ffbd6f9ea2ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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"Arto et al. (2019) have reported the adaptation costs of the Mahanadi \r\nDelta in India for agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure sectors (Arto \r\net  al., 2019). The cumulative adaptation costs for 2015-2016 were \r\nreported to be 276 million USD for agriculture and 0.163 million USD \r\nfor fisheries. In comparison, the modelled cumulative agricultural \r\nGDP loss due to climate-change impacts was reported to be 5% up "


id: 950d89e616d410a5c224214aeafa7eeb
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"Losses and damages are climate impacts after implementing adaptation and mitigation actions, signifying the presence of residual risks \r\n(Chapter 1; Kugler and Sariego, 2016; Mechler et al., 2019). These residual risks indicate that despite adaptation, there are soft and \r\nhard adaptation limits (Mechler et al., 2019). This box reviews the adaptation literature across 51 countries in Asia on loss and damage \r\n(L&D), and adaptation barriers and limits, and identifies knowledge and regional gaps. The key messages are that (a) climate-induced \r\nL&D is already occurring across Asia (medium evidence, high agreement), (b) these L&D are very likely to increase at higher warming \r\nlevels (medium evidence, high agreement) and (c) measuring and attributing non-economic and intangible L&D remains a challenge (low \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


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"Findings on losses and damages in Asia: Evidence on climate-related L&D highlights tangible or material losses and damages such \r\nas loss to life, property, infrastructure and livelihoods (medium evidence, high agreement); and intangible or non-material losses and \r\ndamages such as increasing conflict and civil unrest, erosion of sociocultural practices and decreased well-being (low evidence, high \r\nagreement). The main constraint in assessing past and future L&D is that this terminology is not used prominently or consistently in the \r\ndisaster management and climate risk literature in Asia, which potentially leads to under-reporting. In contrast, there is robust evidence \r\n(high agreement) on adaptation constraints, notably on governance, informational and physical constraints, to adapting, but regional \r\nevidence is very uneven with gaps in Central, North and West Asia. Table 10.5 presents a summary of L&D but draws on national and \r\nsubnational studies."


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"Way forward: Developing robust metrics and institutions for measuring and reporting L&D at national and regional scales, especially \r\nnon-economic damages and L&D due to slow-onset events, is critical. In addition to vulnerability assessments, assessing L&D and limits \r\nto adaptation can inform adaptation prioritisation and enhance adaptation effectiveness (e.g., Craft and Fisher, 2016; Leiter et al., 2019). \r\nLessons are available from biodiversity and ecosystem services monitoring frameworks that have well-developed metrics and processes \r\n(e.g., Diaz et al., 2020)."


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"annually. A combination of public, private, bilateral and multilateral \r\nfunding sources, and carbon-market offsets, were suggested to \r\nachieve this level of funding. In terms of the total resources available, \r\na combination of public, private and bi- and multi-lateral funding could \r\nhelp the region to raise as much as 222.3-412.5 billion USD annually, \r\nwith a possibility to reach higher amounts depending on the future \r\neconomic growth of countries in the region. Soil carbon sequestration \r\nin agricultural soils was found to be a win-win solution for both \r\nmitigation and adaptation as it can help improve soils while increasing \r\nfarm yields and incomes of smallholders (Aryal et al., 2020a)."


id: 435d9985ab48c178bcfa68703b5f00cd
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"Kissinger et al. (2019) have estimated the climate financing needs in \r\nthe land sector under the Paris Agreement. The estimates suggested \r\nadaptation needs of 2.5 billion USD for Bangladesh, 40.5 million USD \r\nfor Lao PDR and 31  million USD for Mongolia, for the forest sector \r\nalone (Low agreement, limited evidence)."


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"Financing green growth and low-carbon development can provide \r\nresilience benefits (high agreement, limited evidence). Kameyama \r\net al. (2016) have estimated the cost of low-carbon investments that \r\ncan provide resilience benefits in Asia and reported that such low\u0002carbon development will cost in the range of 125-149  billion USD "


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"2015; Fischer, 2019). Technological applications in the development \r\nof insurance products have seen significant progress, including that \r\nof the blockchain and smart contracts (Gatteschi et al., 2018). There \r\nare technological developments in loss estimation, which has been a \r\nmajor limitation in the traditional insurance approaches in the past \r\nthat either delayed the indemnity payment or misjudged the losses. \r\nApplication of multi-model and multi-stage decision support systems \r\nhas begun to make crop loss assessments for insurance more efficient \r\n(Aggarwal et al., 2020). Technological applications also include remote \r\nsensing (Di et al., 2017) and mobile phone app technologies (Meena \r\net al., 2018) to provide accurate and quick damage assessments, and \r\napplication of Internet-based indemnity approvals have enabled quick \r\npayment of indemnities (OECD, 2017b)."


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"New adaptation financing sources have been emerging which could \r\nprovide country-specific adaptation financing suiting local-level \r\nadaptation needs in Asia. The newly established Asia Infrastructure \r\nInvestment Bank (AIDB), and newly emerging developing-country \r\nfinance institutions, are known to provide an additional adaptation \r\nfinance (Neufeldt et  al., 2018); however, despite these emerging \r\nfinancial sources, the region will fall short of the adaptation target in \r\nthe Paris Agreement (Neufeldt et al., 2018)."


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"Several Asian countries, including India, the Philippines and China, \r\nhave a significant experience of offering agricultural insurance against \r\ntyphoons, droughts and floods (Yang, 2018). For the most part, these \r\ninsurance systems have followed a traditional indemnity-based \r\ninsurance which faces several challenges in implementation including \r\nmoral hazard and adverse selection, disagreements and delays in \r\ncrop-damage assessments that relied upon crop-cutting experiments, \r\noften leading to a delay in processing indemnity payments, costly \r\ninsurance premiums and poor insurance expansion (high agreement, \r\nrobust evidence) (Patnaik and Swain, 2017; Ghosh et al., 2019). Other \r\nfactors contributing to poor penetration of insurance include limited \r\nawareness on the importance of insurance, and poor access."


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"To tackle the problem of costly insurance premiums, governments \r\nhave subsidised the premiums (Ghosh et al., 2019). Premium subsidies \r\nhave been reported to undermine the ability to convey the real cost of \r\nrisks by the insured (price distortion), and have encouraged adverse \r\nselection and moral hazard (Nguyen and Jolly, 2019). On the contrary, \r\nsubsidies have been suggested to address the issue of adverse selection \r\nassociated with the insurance (Zhao et al., 2017c)."


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"Risk insurance approaches and tools have significantly evolved during \r\nrecent years. The emphasis has been mainly on mitigating the adverse \r\nselection and moral hazard that have been the limitations of traditional \r\narea-based crop insurance approaches (He et al., 2019). This has been \r\nachieved by shifting the indemnity calculations on to the specific \r\nweather parameters and developing a weather index (Greatrex et al., "


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"on farmers' income seems to be insignificant especially under the \r\nconditions of low indemnities, low guarantee and wide coverage \r\n(Zhao et  al., 2016a). The subsidy burden of insurance on national \r\ngovernments is found to be significant with an estimated equivalent of \r\n6 billion USD spent by China alone on insurance (Hazell et al., 2017). \r\nIn addition, the insurance programmes in Asian countries are reporting \r\nhigher producer claim ratios, and often governments have to spend \r\nmore than the money being transferred to the insured through the \r\ninsurance programmes (Hazell et al., 2017)."


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"of proper monitoring and evaluation, and limited data for underwriters \r\nto properly evaluate claims have been suggested (Nguyen and Jolly, \r\n2019). Low interest among the potential buyers due to unaffordable \r\ninsurance premiums, lack of provision for partial-loss claim settlement, \r\nbig hassles in the claim settlement process and lack of timely \r\nsettlement of claims are reported (Parappurathu et  al., 2017). In \r\naddition, insurance has been reported to have expanded the coverage \r\nof cash crops at the expense of drought-resistant subsistence crops \r\nwith effects on natural capital and a potential increase in farmer's \r\nvulnerability to market price fluctuations (Muller et al., 2017)."


id: b7d55f81aec2d10fd818f79c3f86601c
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"Regional catastrophic insurance pools have also received attention \r\nin Asia. With the formation of Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Insurance \r\nFacility (Haraguchi and Lall, 2019), the regional insurance pool has \r\nbeen introduced in Southeast Asia, initially being piloted in Lao PDR \r\nand Myanmar and to be expanded to the rest of the ASEAN region. \r\nRegional catastrophic insurance allows vulnerable countries to buffer \r\nclimatic shocks by diversifying the risks beyond country boundaries."


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"Social protection (SP) encompasses initiatives that involve transfer \r\nincome or assets to the poor, protect the vulnerable against risks \r\nto their livelihood, and enhance the social status and rights of the \r\nmarginalised (Bene et al., 2014; Kothari, 2014). Social protection offers \r\na wide range of instruments (e.g., cash transfers, insurance products, \r\npension schemes and employment guarantee schemes) that can be \r\nused to support households that are exposed to climate changes \r\n(Bank, 2015). It also presents an opportunity to develop inclusive \r\ncomprehensive risk management strategies to address L&D from \r\nclimate change as well as a means to CCA (Aleksandrova, 2019)."


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"Despite these developments, several issues still seem to hinder the \r\npenetration of insurance in Asia. Issues such as lack of sufficient \r\nchoices, lack of clear model, lack of legal support, limited or absence "


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"Asia is already the most disaster-prone region in the world, with over \r\n200,000 lives lost and almost 1 billion people affected by storms and \r\nfloods alone between 2005 and 2014, while a heatwave in North \r\nand Central Asia in 2010 killed 56,000 people (United Nations, 2015). \r\nClimate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these sudden \r\nand slow-onset disasters, among them, hydrological changes in major \r\nriver basins where 1.5 billion people live (such as the Indus, Ganges, \r\nBrahmaputra, Mekong, Yellow, Yangtze, Tarim, Amu and Syr Darya rivers) \r\n(Bank, 2017a). According to the latest estimates of the International \r\nLabour Organisation (ILO), 55% of the global population (around \r\n4 billion people) remain without any SP benefits, and the SP coverage \r\ngap is highest in Africa (82.2%) and the Asia-Pacific (61%) (ILO, 2017b)."


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"Aligning SP with climate-change interventions is an attempt to develop \r\nmore durable pathways out of poverty and climate vulnerability; \r\nexamples from MGNREGA depicting the attempt to align through a \r\nmainstreaming approach has helped women and their households \r\n(Adam, 2015; Steinbach et al., 2016). On another note, the Catastrophe \r\nInsurance Framework, the first model introduced in Shenzen, China, \r\nprovides timely relief for citizens and operates as a safety net, \r\nparticularly for the poorest residents who do not have disposable \r\nincome to cover the costs associated with bodily injuries arising from \r\ndisasters (Telesetsky and He, 2016). The Department of Labour and \r\nEmployment's Integrated Livelihood and Emergency Employment \r\nProgramme in the Philippines is part of the recovery efforts after \r\nTyphoon Haiyan, providing short-term wage employment, and \r\nfacilitates entrepreneurship for people affected by natural calamities \r\nand economic shocks (Bank, 2018b)."


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"In each of these instances, governments are using SP to protect \r\npopulations suffering from climate change or are adversely affected \r\nby structural, pro-climate economic reforms (Hallegatte et al., 2015). \r\nHowever, additional research is still needed and new tools need to \r\nbe developed to inform policy design and support the implementation \r\nof 'green' SP, as well as to measure the net-welfare impacts of such "


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"the challenges of the increasing frequency and intensity of natural \r\nand economic crises are straining these traditional financial sources \r\n(Duran-Valverde, 2020). In this context, innovative financing schemes \r\nare seen as critical to achieve the sustainable financing of SP (Asher, \r\n2015; UNICEF, 2019) via social and solidarity economy, as seen in \r\nwomen's autonomous adaptation measures in precautionary savings \r\nand flood preparedness in Nepal (Banerjee et al., 2019), and self-help \r\ngroups as development intermediaries (Anderson, 2019). Still, there are \r\nconstraints of SP to reach those who are most vulnerable to climate \r\nchange and other hazards due to their legal status, such as the fact \r\nthat attention to forcibly displaced populations within the SP field has \r\nbeen limited (Sabates-Wheeler, 2019)."


id: 373d2226f49e8df949af08438853b8ab
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"international and national support through institutions and financing \r\nis critical for successful capacity building (Hemachandra, 2019), which \r\nmust be designed for the long term and be self-sustaining (Gustafson \r\net al., 2018). National ownership by recipient countries and members \r\nof communities of capacity-building efforts is key to ensuring their \r\nsuccess (Roberts and Pelling, 2016; Mikulewicz, 2017)."


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"Asian areas with the least capacity to respond, such as the Himalayan \r\nregion and densely populated deltas, are hit first and hardest by \r\nclimate impacts (De Souza et al., 2015; Khan, 2017). Acknowledging \r\nthe limitations in terms of capacity and coping mechanisms towards \r\nclimate change, education, training and awareness building is \r\ncentral to sustaining long-term capacity building (Clemens et  al., \r\n2016). Education has a lot more to offer in terms of improvements in \r\naddressing climate change, particularly in the climate hotspots of Asia \r\nwhere mostly poor, disadvantaged communities vulnerable to climate \r\nchange reside (Mani et  al., 2018). In particular, when disseminated, \r\nclimate-change awareness and information need more explanation \r\n(Steg et  al., 2014; Wi and Chang, 2018; Cho, 2020). In addition, "


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"An integrated approach to knowledge about climate change embraces \r\nboth the importance in bridging knowledge of climate science and \r\nrespecting IKLK, and should be at the heart of any effort to educate \r\ncitizens to have a deeper understanding of the causes and consequence \r\nof climate change in a holistic manner (Aswani et al., 2018). Indigenous \r\nPeoples, comprising about 6% of the global population, play a crucial \r\nrole in the fight against climate change for two interlinked reasons. \r\nFirst, they have a particular physical and spiritual relationship with \r\nland, water and associated ecosystems, and tend to be among the "


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"change; thus, citizen science has the potential in bridging this gap and \r\nhas many advantages for climate mitigation and adaptation practice \r\nand policy (Ford et  al., 2016). While citizen science uses citizens as \r\npolicy-passive objects for research in conducting measurements for \r\nbig datasets, citizen social science is gaining momentum where it \r\nrepositions citizens as central co-learners who can widen the climate\u0002science evidence base to achieve a more holistic understanding for the \r\nbenefit of all (Kythreotis et al., 2019)."


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"Climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) are 'trajectories \r\nthat strengthen sustainable development and efforts to eradicate \r\npoverty and reduce inequalities while promoting fair and cross-scalar \r\nadaptation to and resilience in a changing climate' (Roy et al., 2018). \r\nMoving beyond a business-as-usual scenario, CRDPs involve not only \r\nadaptation and mitigation choices but also sustainable development \r\nimplications and societal transformation (Roy et  al., 2018). This \r\nbasic understanding of CRDPs explicitly reflects that climate action \r\n(mitigation and adaptation) and sustainable development are \r\nfundamentally integrated and interdependent."


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"Table  10.6 shows education and capacity-building aspects affecting \r\nadaptation by sub-region examples."


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"There is high confidence that currently implemented climate action \r\nin Asia (such as climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem-based DRR and \r\ninvesting in urban blue-green infrastructure) can meet adaptation, \r\nmitigation and SDGs simultaneously, presenting opportunities for \r\nclimate resilient development (CRD). However, there also exist \r\nsignificant barriers to CRD such as fragmented, reactive governance; \r\ninadequate evidence on which actions to prioritise and how to \r\nsequence them; and finance deficits. Some Asian countries and regions \r\noffer solutions to overcome these barriers: through use of advanced \r\ntechnologies (in situ observation and remote sensing, a variety of new \r\nsensor technologies, citizen science, AI and machine learning tools); \r\nregional partnerships and learning; improved forecasting capabilities; \r\nand better risk awareness (high confidence)."


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"Asian countries are repeatedly identified as the most vulnerable \r\nto climatic risks with key sectors such as agriculture, cities and \r\ninfrastructure, and terrestrial ecosystems expected to see high exposure \r\nto multiple hazards (Section 10.3). Owing to rapid development and \r\nlarge populations, Asian countries have large and growing GHG \r\nemissions: in 2018, five of the top ten emitters in the world were Asian-\r\nChina (1), India (3), Japan (5), the Republic of Korea (8) and Indonesia \r\n(10) (Friedlingstein et al., 2019)-although it is critical to note that per\u0002capita emissions and cumulative emissions are relatively lower than \r\nin developed economies (Raupach et al., 2014). However, in the 2020 \r\nSustainability Index and Dashboard, only two Asian countries made it \r\ninto the top 30 countries in the world: Japan (17) and the Republic of \r\nKorea (20) (Sachs et  al., 2020). Finally, Asia has varied capacities to \r\nadapt with high heterogeneity in adaptation progress across the region."


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"As a model of communication and engagement, citizen science has \r\nthe potential to promote individual and collective climate-change \r\naction (Groulx et al., 2017). More than information provision is needed \r\nto mobilise public action on climate change (Kyburz-Graber, 2013). \r\nCitizen science links communication and engagement in a manner that \r\nholds important lessons on ways to promote collective responses to \r\nclimate (Wals et al., 2014; Bonney et al., 2016). The power of science\u0002based citizen engagement lies in citizen group contribution in drawing \r\nupon their local knowledge to enrich the knowledge base required for \r\nmanagement decisions (Sayer et al., 2015). Scientific evidence may be \r\nless attuned to the complexity of local realities in managing climate "


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"Table 10.6 |  Education and capacity-building aspects affecting adaptation by sub-regions examples"


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"Table 10.7 |  Adaptation options that can have mitigation and SDG synergies and trade-offs, providing opportunities for the triple wins necessary for climate resilient development \r\npathways"


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"(b) The CCA options in the agriculture sector include soil management, crop diversification, cropping system optimisation and management, water management, sustainable land \r\nmanagement, crop pest and disease management, and direct seeding of rice (Aryal et al., 2020b). Other specific agricultural practices that have adaptation and mitigation synergies \r\ninclude between-tillage and residue management, alternate wetting and drying, site-specific nutrient management, crop diversification for less-water-intensive crops, such as maize, \r\nand improved livestock management (Aryal et al., 2020a)."


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"(c) Risk management strategies in agriculture include crop insurance, index insurance, social networking and community-based adaptation, collective international action and \r\nintegrated agro-meteorological advisory services (Aryal et al., 2020b)."


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"(c) managing multiple and often concurrent risks, including climate\u0002change and disaster risks. Potentially, combinations of adaptation and \r\nmitigation options will be required to lead to CRD (see Figure  18.1 \r\non CRDPs ), and some of them are shown in Table 10.7. For example, \r\nclimate-smart agriculture strengthens food security (SDG 2, Zero \r\nHunger) (Aggarwal et al., 2019); urban disaster management, such as \r\nthe Jakarta Disaster Risk Reduction Education Initiative, contributes to \r\nSDG 11 (Sustainable Cities) (Ajibade et al., 2019)."


id: 433a5d5e6d2942c92a281e7d4b05ef84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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"The following subsections examine CRDPs through three approaches \r\nthat are particularly important in Asia and have a large body of evidence \r\nto assess implications for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable \r\ndevelopment. The three illustrative approaches are: (a) disaster risk \r\nmanagement and adaptation synergies, (b) the food-water-energy \r\nnexus and (c) poverty alleviation and meeting equity goals."


id: d48f0b4cb4fb5f2be6cfe84e3a0ee82
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"Climate risk management in Asia is approached by focusing on hazards \r\nthat are associated with extremes (i.e., extreme weather events with \r\nincreased frequency and severity) as well as climate- and weather\u0002related events. For example, farming has been affected by climatic \r\nvariability and change in a wide variety of ways that include an \r\nincrease in drought periods and intensity, a shortage of irrigation water \r\navailability, an increase in flooding and landslides, pest infestation of \r\ncrops, a rising number of crop diseases, the introduction of invasive \r\nspecies and crop weeds, land degradation and an overall reduction \r\nin crop yields (Khanal et al., 2019). Estimation of the number of daily \r\npatients of heat-related illness based on the weather data and newly \r\nintroduced metrics shows that the effects of age, successive days and \r\nheat adaptation are key variables (Kodera et al., 2019)."


id: e1a7674e13943092a57848245c3aa324
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"Because most developing countries in Asia are highly vulnerable to the \r\nimpacts of climate change due to a number of factors, many studies \r\nhave focused on understanding vulnerability, for instance, gendered \r\nvulnerability at the micro scale, which limits capacity to respond to \r\nboth climatic and socioeconomic stressors (Ferdous and Mallick, \r\n2019); vulnerability of urban poor communities due to the interaction \r\nof environmental and social factors (e.g., low incomes, gender, migrant \r\nstatus) and heightens the impacts of climate change on the poor (Porio, \r\n2014); social-ecological vulnerability where a degraded environment \r\ninfluences hazard patterns and vulnerability of people (Depietri, \r\n2020); and livelihood vulnerability due to perceived climate risks and \r\nadaptation constraints (Fahad and Wang, 2018; Hossain et al., 2020)."


id: 6b4e76eb8a0900be948c9e67d65d4432
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"how practice can build on these lessons in the deltas, among others \r\n(Lwasa, 2015). Approaches in tackling the challenges of climate change \r\nand disasters in the cities of developing countries could be better \r\nunderstood, and shared between cities so they can learn from one \r\nanother (Filho et al., 2019)."


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"(Hiwasaki et  al., 2014); and increasing information, education and \r\ncommunication activities, and capacity development on DRR at the \r\nlocal level (Tuladhar et al., 2015a)."


id: 41a440a51ecd4315da2b4757c87356e1
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"hydropower development will have direct implications on regional food \r\nsecurity and livelihoods through a major negative effect on the aquatic \r\necosystem (Baran and Myschowoda, 2009; Dugan et al., 2010; Arias \r\net al., 2014). Similarly, in Central Asia, the shifting of water storage for \r\nirrigation to power development has increased risks on reliable water \r\nsupply and quality of water (Granit et al., 2012). Deforestation-driven \r\nagro-environmental changes have led to a decreased forest water \r\nsupply, an increased irrigation water demand and a negative effect on \r\ncropland stability and productivity (Lim et al., 2017a; Lim et al., 2019b)."


id: c649cf8ccb3b55cd4db485f53f115ce4
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"Insights from the environmental justice literature show that an \r\noveremphasis on emission reductions at national levels obscures \r\nthe negative impacts on disadvantaged communities, including low\u0002income communities (Burch and Harris, 2014). The issue of social \r\njustice and adaptation is particularly relevant because of the politics \r\nthat drive how adaptation and recovery efforts, as well as investments, \r\nare targeted towards specific populations, places and capacities \r\n(Klinsky et  al., 2017). Hence, climate justice and equity need to be \r\nhighlighted more explicitly in integrative approaches to mitigation and \r\nadaptation (medium evidence, high agreement) (Moellendorf, 2015; \r\nHenrique KP, 2020)."


id: 24fa4e90378bd534618b8acee8f0b1f4
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"The term 'climate justice' is used to problematise global warming in \r\nethical and political contexts. It does so by employing the concepts \r\nof environmental justice and social justice to examine inequalities \r\nand violation of human collective rights in relation to climate-change \r\nimpacts (Ghimire, 2016)."


id: d5b3430a8718bce9c2174e2f7619a50f
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"At the heart of climate-justice concerns lies the asymmetry that those \r\nwho have contributed least to the problem of climate change (i.e., GHG \r\nemissions) are the ones who will be affected by its adverse impacts \r\nthe most. It is about sharing the burden and benefits equitably (a) \r\namong developed and developing countries in the context of historical \r\nresponsibility, and (b) within nations to uplift the marginalised and \r\naffected populations who have contributed the least to the problem \r\nin the contexts of per-capita equity and local vulnerability (Joshi, 2014; \r\nChaudhuri, 2020; Shawoo, 2020)."


id: d6eaf865694bd4ddf8779fc61b8e5880
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"(redistribution, recognition, restitution, regeneration and resistance) of \r\nsocially just land policy are necessarily intertwined. But the global land \r\nrush amid deepening climate change calls attention to the linkages, \r\nespecially between the pursuit of agrarian justice, on the one hand, \r\nand climate justice, on the other. Here, the relationship is not without \r\ncontradictions and warrants increased attention as both unit of \r\nanalysis and object of political action. Understanding and deepening \r\nagrarian-justice imperatives in climate politics, and understanding and \r\ndeepening climate-justice imperatives in agrarian politics, is needed \r\nmore than ever in the ongoing pursuit of alternatives. For example, \r\nthe intersection between land grabs and climate-change mitigation \r\npolitics in Myanmar has created new political opportunities for scaling \r\nup, expanding and deepening the struggles towards 'agrarian climate \r\njustice'(Sekine, 2021)."


id: 51228e02ee2be6816928c3a5b030796a
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"An ethical analysis of the climate regime reveals an abidingly strong \r\ninterconnection between economic circumstances, geopolitical power \r\nand the justice claims that nations can assert in negotiations (Okereke, \r\n2016). Events within the climate regime highlight the importance of \r\nquestioning the extent to which claims of justice can ever be truly \r\nrealised in the context of international regimes of environmental \r\ngovernance, as well as how much concerns for justice are motivated \r\nby other concerns such as relative economic gains or geopolitical \r\nobjectives (Sikor, 2014)."


id: e72810186061e6fcc0f3ba4d04ded540
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"The global land rush and mainstream climate-change narratives \r\nhave broadened the ranks of state and social actors concerned about \r\nland issues while strengthening those opposed to social-justice\u0002oriented land policies (Borras, 2018). The five deep social reforms "


id: 9f5d3471894e1d8870d27737ef20c38
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"FAQ 10.1 | What are the current and projected key risks related to climate change in each sub-region of Asia?\r\nClimate-change-related risks are projected to increase progressively at 1.5degC, 2degC and 3degC of global warming in many parts of Asia. Heat stress \r\nand water deficit are affecting human health and food security. Risks due to extreme rainfall and sea level rise are exacerbated in vulnerable Asia."


id: 3a7f07119159b7e1bb73f5378b1d1587
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"Extreme rainfall causes floods in vulnerable rivers. Observed changes in extreme rainfall vary considerably by region \r\nin Asia. Extreme rainfall events (such as heavy rainfall >100 mm per day) have been increasing in South and East Asia. \r\nIn the future, most of East and Southeast Asia are projected to experience more intense rainfall events as soon as by \r\nthe middle of the 21st century. In those regions, the flood risk will become more frequent and severe. It is estimated \r\nthat over one-third of Asian cities and about 932 million urban dwellers are living in areas with high risk of flooding."


id: 9e4c697c1f647bb4be8338308ca891cf
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"Sea level rise is continuing. Higher than the global mean sea level rise is projected on Asian coasts. Storm surge and \r\nhigh wave by tropical cyclones of higher intensity are high risk for a large number of Asian megacities facing the \r\nocean: China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam have the highest numbers of coastal populations exposed \r\nand thus are most vulnerable to disaster-related mortality."


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"Changes in terrestrial biome have been observed that are consistent with warming, such as an upward move of \r\ntreeline position in mountains. Climate change, human activity, lightning and quality of forest governance and \r\nmanagement have increased wildfire severity and area burned in North Asia in recent decades. Changes in marine \r\nprimary production also have been observed: a decrease up to 20% over the past six decades in the western Indian \r\nOcean, due to ocean warming and stratification, has restricted nutrient mixing. The risk of irreversible loss of many \r\necosystems will increase with global warming."


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"The likelihood of adverse impacts to agricultural and food security in many parts of developing Asia will progressively \r\nescalate with the changing climate. The potential of total fisheries production in South and Southeast Asia is also \r\nprojected to decrease."


id: 4fd7921c1299876874f9f7b344b25064
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"Mirroring the heterogeneity across Asia, different countries and communities are undertaking a range of reactive and proactive strategies to \r\nmanage risk in various sectors. Several of these adaptation actions show promise, reducing vulnerability and improving societal well-being. \r\nHowever, challenges remain around scaling up adaptation actions in a manner that is effective and inclusive while simultaneously meeting \r\nnational development goals."


id: f99258355227a34b8eccc7fd64f7aff4
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"Asia exhibits tremendous variation in terms of ecosystems, economic development, cultures and climate risk \r\nexposure. Mirroring this variation, households, communities and governments have a wide range of coping and \r\nadaptation strategies to deal with changing climatic conditions, with co-benefits for various non-climatic issues such \r\nas poverty, conflict and livelihood dynamics."


id: e91445516c07eadfc7b09f0d716756a3
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"Currently, Asian countries have rich evidence on managing risk, drawing on long histories of dealing with change. \r\nFor example, to deal with erratic rainfall and shifting monsoons, farmers make incremental shifts such as changing \r\nwhat and when they grow or adjusting their irrigation practices. Communities living in coastal settlements are \r\nusing Early warning systems to prepare for cyclones or raising the height of their houses to minimise flood impacts. \r\nThese types of strategies, seen across all Asian sub-regions, based on local social and ecological contexts, are termed \r\nautonomous adaptations that occur incrementally and help people manage current impacts."


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"Overall, the fundamental challenges that Asia will see exacerbated under climate change are around water and \r\nfood insecurity, poverty and inequality, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events. In some places \r\nand for some people, climate change, even at 1.5degC and more so at 2degC, will significantly constrain the functioning \r\nand well-being of human and ecological systems. Asian cities, villages and countries are rising to this current and \r\nprojected challenge, albeit somewhat unevenly."


id: 2daf7e331fd9b21c9e9e903501c41c7
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"Indigenous People, comprising about 6% of the global population, play a crucial role in managing climate change for two important reasons. \r\nFirst, they have a physical and spiritual connection with land, water and associated ecosystems, thus making them most vulnerable to any \r\nenvironmental and climatic changes. Second, their ecological and local knowledge are relevant to finding solutions to climate change."


id: 52d52e002ea64757c4315d6fd900e235
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"Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) play an important role in the formulation of adaptation \r\ngovernance and related strategies (IPCC 2007), and best quality, locality-specific knowledge can help address the \r\nserious lack of education on climate change and uncertainties surrounding quality, salience, credibility and the \r\nlegitimacy of the available knowledge base."


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"Key findings across Asia underline the importance of building, sustaining and augmenting local capacity through \r\naddressing inadequacies in terms of resource base, climate-change awareness, government-community partnerships \r\nand vulnerability assessment. Furthermore, inclusion of as well as related practices will improve adaptation planning \r\nand decision-making processes concerning climate change."


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"In climate-sensitive livelihoods, an integrated approach informed by science that examines multiple stressors, along \r\nwith IKLK, appears to be of immense value. For instance, in building farmers' resilience, enhancing CCA, ensuring \r\ncross-cultural communication and promoting local skills, Indigenous People's intuitive thinking processes and \r\ngeographic knowledge of remote areas are very important."


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"There is also a widespread recognition that IKLK are important in ensuring successful ecosystem-based adaptation \r\n(EbA). However, this recognition requires more practical application and translation into IKLK-driven EbA projects. \r\nFor instance, in the Coral Triangle region, creating historical timelines and mapping seasonal calendars can help to \r\ncapture IKLK while also feeding this information into climate science and climate adaptation planning. Identifying \r\nindigenous crop species for agriculture by using IKLK is already identified as an important way to localise climate \r\nadaptation: an example is Bali's vital contribution of moral economies to food systems which have long built \r\nresilience among groups of communities in terms of food security and sovereignty, even with the challenges faced \r\ndue to modernising of local food systems."


id: ae07aecbd76d08edba80cad0a586da4
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"Many of the pressing problems of Asia, including water scarcity, rapid urbanisation, deforestation, loss of species, \r\nrising coastal hazards and agricultural loss can be effectively negated, or at least minimised, through proper \r\nadoption of suitable science and technological methods. Climate-change adaptation is greatly facilitated by \r\nscience, technology and innovation. This ranges from application of existing science, new development on scientific \r\ntools and methods, application of IKLK and citizen sciences. Deploying Knowledge Quality Assessment Tool found \r\nsignificant co-relation between science-based and IKLK framing would help to address, acknowledge and utilise by \r\nan integrated approach the wisdom of IKLK, a valuable asset for climate adaptation governance. The IKLK-based \r\nenvironmental indicators need to be seen as part of a separate system of knowledge that coexists with, but is not \r\nsubmerged into, another conventional knowledge system."


id: b196f52712cd70601f605d9de95d00d1
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"In the context of education and capacity development of climate change, an integrated approach of embracing \r\nboth the importance of climate science and IKLK is acknowledged. The IKLK is increasingly recognised as a powerful \r\ntool for compiling evidence of climate change over time. Such as knowledge of CCA and DRR provide a range of \r\ncomplementary approaches in building resilience and reducing the vulnerability of natural and human systems. \r\nDeveloping knowledge and utilising existing IKLK, skills and dispositions to better cope with already evident and \r\nlooming climate impacts. Engaging communities in the process of documenting and understanding long-term \r\ntrends and practices will enable both IKLK as well as Western scientific assessments of climate change to contribute \r\nin designing appropriate climate adaptation measures."


id: b966b9a69ef99fc7cb292846d9b11b38
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"FAQ 10.4 | How can Asia meet multiple goals of climate-change adaptation and sustainable development within \r\nthe coming decades?"


id: 6a8ca82eaa3c109530748243fc480c10
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"Asian countries are testing ways to develop in a climate-resilient manner to meet the goals related to climate change and sustainable \r\ndevelopment simultaneously. Some promising examples exist, but the window of opportunity to put some of these plans in place is small and \r\nclosing fast, highlighting the need for urgent action across and within countries."


id: 9a45c13c5b1595c5590a3197f8797a07
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"Despite these challenges, there are increasing examples of actions across Asia that are meeting climate adaptation \r\ngoals and SDGs simultaneously, such as through climate-smart agriculture, disaster risk management and NbS. To \r\nenable these system transitions, vertical and horizontal policy linkages, active communication and cooperation \r\nbetween multiple stakeholders, and attention to the root causes of vulnerability are essential. Furthermore, rapid \r\nsystemic transformation can be enabled by policies and finances to incentivise capacity building, new technological \r\ninnovation and diffusion. The effectiveness of such technology-centred approaches can be maximised by combining \r\nthem with attention to behavioural shifts such as by improving education and awareness, building local capacities \r\nand institutions, and leveraging IKLK."


id: ecf14ef665ec7c22f28ef51374f55195
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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"Obviously, time is of the essence. If system transitions are delayed, there is high confidence that climatic risks will \r\nincrease human and natural system vulnerability, as well as increase inequality and erode the achievements of \r\nmultiple SDGs. Thus, urgent systemic change that is suited to national and subnational social-ecological contexts \r\nacross Asia is imperative."


id: 4d096bc016241673f15ce64be690897c
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"Lead Authors: Francis Chiew (Australia), Mark J. Costello (New Zealand/Norway/Ireland), Kevin \r\nHennessy (Australia), Nina Lansbury (Australia), Uday Bhaskar Nidumolu (Australia), Gretta \r\nPecl (Australia), Lauren Rickards (Australia), Nigel Tapper (Australia), Alistair Woodward (New \r\nZealand), Anita Wreford (New Zealand)"


id: af0cca66d8028cc6bd0e291a265ff5e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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"Lawrence, J., B. Mackey, F. Chiew, M.J. Costello, K. Hennessy, N. Lansbury, U.B. Nidumolu, G. Pecl, L. Rickards, N. Tapper, \r\nA.Woodward, and A.Wreford, 2022: Australasia. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. \r\nContribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \r\n[H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, \r\nV. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1581-1688, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.013."


id: 71c7b207c13e010656be076727075925
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"bleaching, fires, poor ski seasons and receding glaciers. Governments, \r\nbusiness and communities have experienced major costs associated \r\nwith extreme weather, droughts and sea level rise (SLR). {11.3, 11.4, \r\n11.5.2, Table 11.2, Boxes 11.1-11.6}"


id: e69a12a0de841e0b036a4087a52580ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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"Climate impacts are cascading and compounding across sectors \r\nand socioeconomic and natural systems (high confidence).\r\nComplex connections are generating new types of risks, exacerbating \r\nexisting stressors and constraining adaptation options. An example \r\nis the impacts that cascade between interdependent systems and \r\ninfrastructure in cities and settlements. Another example is the 2019-\r\n2020 southeast Australia wildfires, which burned 5.8 to 8.1  million \r\nhectares, with 114 listed threatened species losing at least half of \r\ntheir habitat and 49 losing over 80%, over 3,000 houses destroyed, \r\n33 people killed, a further 429 deaths and 3230 hospitalisations due \r\nto cardiovascular or respiratory conditions, AUD$1.95 billion in health \r\ncosts, AUD$2.3 billion in insured losses and AUD$3.6 billion in losses \r\nfor tourism, hospitality, agriculture and forestry. {11.5.1, Box 11.1}"


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"Increasing climate risks are projected to exacerbate existing \r\nvulnerabilities and social inequalities and inequities (high \r\nconfidence). These include inequalities between Indigenous and non\u0002Indigenous Peoples and between generations, rural and urban areas, \r\nincomes and health status, increasing the climate risks and adaptation \r\nchallenges faced by some groups and places. Resultant climate change \r\nimpacts include the displacement of some people and businesses and \r\nthreaten social cohesion and community well-being. {11.3.5, 11.3.6, \r\n11.3.10, 11.4}"


id: 9ef6da30d7e4b5888b2f7165c1b64339
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22555
content:
"Climate trends and extreme events have combined with \r\nexposure and vulnerabilities to cause major impacts for some \r\nhuman systems (high confidence). Socioeconomic costs arising \r\nfrom climate variability and change have increased. Extreme heat has \r\nled to excess deaths and increased rates of many illnesses. Nuisance \r\nand extreme coastal flooding have increased due to sea level rise \r\n(SLR) superimposed upon high tides and storm surges in low-lying \r\ncoastal and estuarine locations, including impacts on cultural sites, \r\ntraditions and lifestyles of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples \r\nin Australia and Tangata Whenua Maori in New Zealand. Droughts \r\nhave caused financial and emotional stress in farm households and \r\nrural communities. Tourism has been negatively affected by coral "


id: 251d7d22bee3378fa0b5faf75110e452
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3278
content:
"Climate risks are projected to increase for a wide range of \r\nsystems, sectors and communities, which are exacerbated by \r\nunderlying vulnerabilities and exposures (high confidence)\r\n{11.3; 11.4}. Nine key risks have been identified, based on magnitude, \r\nlikelihood, timing and adaptive capacity {11.6, Table 11.14}:"


id: d1c58855aea5611d7aecad2a4d43bbc8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30534
content:
"There are important interactions between mitigation and \r\nadaptation policies and their implementation (high confidence). \r\nIntegrated policies in interdependent systems across biodiversity, \r\nwater quality, water availability, energy, transport, land use and \r\nforestry for mitigation can support synergies between adaptation \r\nand mitigation. These have co-benefits for the management of land \r\nuse, water and associated conflicts and for the functioning of cities \r\nand settlements. For example, projected increases in fire, drought, \r\npest incursions, storms and wind place forests at risk and affect their \r\nongoing role in meeting New Zealand's emissions reduction goals. \r\n{11.3.4.3, 11.3.10.2, 11.3.5.3, Box 11.5}"


id: ea7efc25b3461c6f9423f83cc3e8bf8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34403
content:
"The ambition, scope and progress of the adaptation process have \r\nincreased across governments, non-government organisations, \r\nbusinesses and communities (high confidence). This process \r\nincludes vulnerability and risk assessments, identification of strategies \r\nand options, planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation and \r\nreview. Initiatives include legislated institutional frameworks for \r\nrisk assessment and national adaptation planning and monitoring \r\nin New Zealand, a National Recovery and Resilience Agency and \r\nNational Disaster Risk Reuction Framework in Australia, deployment \r\nof new national guidance, decision tools, collaborative governance \r\napproaches and the introduction of climate risk and disclosure regimes \r\nfor the private sector. The focus, however, has been on adaptation \r\nplanning, rather than on implementation. {11.5.1, 11.7.1.1, Box 11.6, \r\nTable 11.15a, Table 11.15b, Table 11.17}"


id: 2ef77f3def05b973cd43a902f6a4364a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4825
content:
"Adaptation progress is uneven, due to gaps, barriers and limits to \r\nadaptation and adaptive capacity deficits (very high confidence). \r\nProgress in adaptation planning, implementation, monitoring and \r\nevaluation is lagging. Barriers include lack of consistent policy \r\ndirection, competing objectives, divergent risk perceptions and values, \r\nknowledge constraints, inconsistent information, fear of litigation, up\u0002front costs and lack of engagement, trust and resources. Adaptation \r\nlimits are being approached for some species and ecosystems. Adaptive "


id: d5988590a48f2f864313248c1fc37335
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31124
content:
"benefits, but complex interactions between objectives can create \r\ntrade-offs. {11.7, 11.8.1, 11.8.2}"


id: d0371742ac47a292eb8b5c04fca0331a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30291
content:
"capacity to address the barriers and limits can be built through greater \r\nengagement with groups and communities to build trust and social \r\nlegitimacy through the inclusion of diverse values, including those \r\nof Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and Tangata Whenua \r\nMaori. {11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.8, Table 11.4, Table 11.5, Table 11.6, \r\nTable 11.16, Box 11.2}"


id: e04c5cb9b2d04fcfcd15f2d420f77e44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32784
content:
"Delay in implementing adaptation and emission reductions \r\nwill impede climate resilient development, resulting in more \r\ncostly climate impacts and greater scale of adjustments (very \r\nhigh confidence). The region faces an extremely challenging future. \r\nReducing the risks would require significant and rapid emission \r\nreductions to keep global warming to 1.5degC-2.0degC, as well as robust \r\nand timely adaptation. The projected warming under current global \r\nemissions reduction policies would leave many of the region's human \r\nand natural systems at very high risk and beyond adaptation limits. \r\n{11.8, Table 11.1, Table 11.14, Figure 11.6}"


id: c6bc5f69f3709cc3f22a29ae79144635
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28835
content:
"A range of incremental and transformative adaptation options \r\nand pathways is available as long as enablers are in place to \r\nimplement them (high confidence). Key enablers for effective \r\nadaptation include shifting from reactive to anticipatory planning, \r\nintegration and coordination across levels of government and sectors, \r\ninclusive and collaborative institutional arrangements, government \r\nleadership, policy alignment, nationally consistent and accessible \r\ninformation and decision-support tools, along with adaptation funding \r\nand finance, and robust, consistent and strategic policy commitment. \r\nOver 75% of people in Australia and New Zealand agree that climate \r\nchange is occurring and over 60% believe climate change is caused by \r\nhumans, giving climate adaptation and mitigation action further social \r\nlegitimacy. {11.7.3, Table 11.17}"


id: 5700562a6a1a9f26c87dde40376e3c0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11169
content:
"New knowledge on system complexity, managing uncertainty \r\nand how to shift from reactive to adaptive implementation is \r\ncritical for accelerating adaptation (high confidence). Priorities \r\ninclude a greater understanding of impacts on natural system dynamics; \r\nthe exposure and vulnerability of different groups within society, \r\nincluding Indigenous Peoples; the relationship between mitigation and \r\nadaptation; the effectiveness and feasibility of different adaptation \r\noptions; the social transitions needed for transformative adaptation; \r\nand the enablers for new knowledge to better inform decision-making \r\n(e.g., monitoring data repositories, risk and vulnerability assessments, \r\nrobust planning approaches, sharing adaptation knowledge and \r\npractice). {11.7.3.3}"


id: a37acc3e7f94aae57116686efb0b94e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23284
content:
"Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and Tangata \r\nWhenua Maori can enhance effective adaptation through the \r\npassing down of knowledge about climate change planning \r\nthat promotes collective action and mutual support across the \r\nregion (high confidence). Supporting Aboriginal and Torres Strait \r\nIslander Peoples and Tangata Whenua Maori institutions, knowledge \r\nand values enable self-determination and create opportunities to \r\ndevelop adaptation responses to climate change. Actively upholding \r\nthe UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and Maori \r\ninterests under the Treaty of Waitangi at all levels of government \r\nenables intergenerational approaches for effective adaptation. {11.3, \r\n11.4, 11.6, 11.7.3; Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18}"


id: fa60e0030da8fff03600b84637079688
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36909
content:
"A step change in adaptation is needed to match the rising \r\nrisks and to support climate resilient development (very high \r\nconfidence). Current adaptation is largely incremental and reactive. \r\nA shift to transformative and proactive adaptation can contribute \r\nto climate resilient development. The scale and scope of cascading, \r\ncompounding and aggregate impacts require new, larger-scale and \r\ntimely adaptation. Monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of \r\nadaptation progress and continual adjustment is critical. The transition \r\nto climate resilient development pathways can generate major co\u0002"


id: 1961ce6087c2c7df423df769ff144a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 1477
content:
"(Hayward, 2012) (11.7.2). A lack of services, such as schools and medical \r\nservices, in poorer and rural areas and decision-making processes that \r\nprivilege some voices over others exacerbate inequalities (Kearns et al., \r\n2009; Hinkson and Vincent, 2018)."


id: f6d58ab2df8e7686ea8a89a410190eb9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36348
content:
"This chapter assesses the observed impacts, projected risks, vulnerability \r\nand adaptation, and the implications for climate resilient development \r\nfor the Australasia region, based on the literature published up to 1 \r\nSeptember 2021. It should be read in conjunction with other Working \r\nGroup (WG) II chapters, the climate science assessment in the WGI \r\nreport and the greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation assessment \r\nin the WGIII report."


id: 8d6d820c3af9d30379fa64b9f2b71696
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 19774
content:
"The Australasia region is defined as the Exclusive Economic Zones \r\n(EEZs) and territories of Australia and New Zealand. In both countries, \r\nclimate adaptation is largely implemented at a sub-national level \r\nthrough the devolution of functions constitutionally or by statute, \r\nalongside disaster risk reduction (COAG, 2011; Lawrence et al., 2015; \r\nMacintosh et al., 2015)."


id: 3ba888b206d68547809d075e85551e69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6741
content:
"Australia's economy is dominated by financial and insurance services, \r\neducation, mining, construction, tourism, health care and social \r\nassistance (ABS, 2018) with Australian exports accruing mostly from \r\nmining (ABS, 2018; ABS, 2019). In New Zealand, service industries, \r\nincluding tourism, collectively account for around two-thirds of \r\nGDP (NZ Treasury, 2016). The primary sector contributes 6% of New \r\nZealand's GDP and over half of the country's export earnings (NZ \r\nTreasury, 2016)."


id: 8410602bddf0335f249cba01e9d5597d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 18310
content:
"The region has an increasingly diverse population through the arrival \r\nof migrants, including those from the Pacific, whose innovations, \r\nskills and transnational networks enhance their and others' adaptive \r\ncapacity (De et al., 2016; Fatoric et al., 2017; Barnett and McMichael, \r\n2018), although language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage \r\ncan create vulnerabilities for some (11.7.2)."


id: d3b55291de601aa349a560aab845099d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 30829
content:
"Existing vulnerabilities expose and exacerbate inequalities between \r\nrural, regional and urban areas, Indigenous and non-Indigenous Peoples, \r\nthose with health and disability needs, and between generations, \r\nincomes and health status, increasing the relative climate change risk \r\nfaced by some groups and places (high confidence) (Jones et al., 2014; \r\nBertram, 2015; Perry, 2017; Hazledine and Rashbrooke, 2018)."


id: b325d2b7becf23a676c653bfd7dc9a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25704
content:
"Climate change inaction exacerbates intergenerational inequity, \r\nincluding prospects for the current younger population (Hayward, \r\n2012). Increasing transient worker populations (ABS, 2018) may \r\ndiminish social networks and adaptive capacity (Jiang et al., 2017). The \r\nregion has an ageing population and increasing numbers of people \r\nliving on their own who are highly vulnerable to extreme events, \r\nincluding heat stress and flooding (Zhang et al., 2013)."


id: ea954788effdc83b5b32ab3adeef28bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34416
content:
"Previous IPCC reports (Table 11.1) have documented observed climate \r\nimpacts, projected risks, adaptation challenges and opportunities. \r\nThis chapter presents more evidence of observed climate impacts \r\nand adaptation, better quantification of socioeconomic risks, new \r\ninformation about cascading and compounding risks, greater emphasis \r\non adaptation enablers and barriers, and links to climate resilient \r\ndevelopment."


id: 2889288607d4f5bf0ba5c54ad901fd3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3796
content:
"Socioeconomic trends are affected by global mega trends (KPMG, \r\n2021), which are expected to influence the region's ability to implement \r\nclimate change adaptation strategies (World Economic Forum, 2014). \r\nDigital technological advances have potential benefits for building \r\nadaptive capacity (Deloitte, 2017a)."


id: b1348e2608c6cac1903ca70599b8fce3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25386
content:
"Economic, demographic and sociocultural trends influence the exposure, \r\nvulnerability and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities (high \r\nconfidence) (Elrick-Barr et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2016; Hayward, 2017; \r\nB. Frame et al., 2018; Plummer et al., 2018; Smith et al., 2018; Gartin \r\net al., 2020). In the absence of proactive adaptation, climate change \r\nimpacts are projected to worsen inequalities between Indigenous and \r\nnon-Indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups (Green et  al., \r\n2009; Manning et  al., 2014; Ambrey et  al., 2017) (high confidence). \r\nSocioeconomic inequality, low incomes and high levels of debt, poor \r\nhealth and disabilities increase vulnerability and limit adaptation "


id: 2aeebc713fdc19ae1a3a948e064c6b65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4181
content:
"Regional climate change has continued since AR5 was released in 2014, \r\nwith trends exacerbating many extreme events (very high confidence). \r\nThe following changes are quantified with references in Tables 11.2a \r\nand 11.2b. The region has continued to warm (Figure 11.1), with more "


id: 60e81c651112b98bcdbcd35b155ae8e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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content:
"Table 11.1 |  Summary of key conclusions from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) Australasia chapter (Reisinger et al., 2014) and relevant conclusions from the IPCC Special \r\nReports on Global Warming of 1.5degC (IPCC, 2018), Climate Change and Land (IPCC, 2019a) and Oceans and Cryosphere (IPCC, 2019b)."


id: 28032299a321ed13d2e0b098671cf8a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3700
content:
"Our regional climate is changing (very high confidence) and warming will continue through the 21st century (virtually certain) with more hot days, fewer cold days, \r\nless snow, less rainfall in southern Australia and the northeast of both of New Zealand's islands, more rainfall in western New Zealand, more extreme rainfall, SLR, \r\nincreased fire weather in southern Australia and across New Zealand and fewer cyclones but a greater proportion of intense cyclones.\r\n(Reisinger et al., \r\n2014)"


id: b1cd94bc1d70dbaaba418a5efa2f608e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 25477
content:
"Adaptation is occurring and becoming mainstreamed in some planning processes (high confidence). Adaptive capacity is considered generally high in many human \r\nsystems, but adaptation implementation faces major barriers, especially for transformational responses (high confidence). Some synergies and trade-offs exist betwee\r\ndifferent adaptation responses and between mitigation and adaptation, with interactions occurring both within and outside the region (very high confidence)."


id: f49cdbae81cf1c082fe89f24120ce6a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35990
content:
"Vulnerability remains uncertain due to incomplete consideration of socioeconomic dimensions (very high confidence), including governance, institutions, patterns of \r\nwealth and ageing, access to technology and information, labour force participation and societal values."


id: 9cbf5d4ef6edcea76872e84f9d586ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22196
content:
"Emissions reductions under Nationally Determined Contributions from signatories to the Paris Agreement are consistent with a global warming of 2.5degC-3.0degC above \r\npre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Much deeper emission reductions are needed prior to 2030 to limit warming to 1.5degC. There are limits to adaptation and adaptive \r\ncapacity for some human and natural systems at global warming of 1.5degC, with associated losses.\r\n(IPC"


id: 5b331ee31544df7053da3bf81ee50f55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11854
content:
"Climate impacts will disproportionately affect the welfare of impoverished and vulnerable people because they lack adaptation resources. Strengthening \r\nthe climate-action capacities of national and sub-national authorities, civil society, the private sector, Indigenous People and local communities can support \r\nimplementation of actions."


id: 839a606526a922497104b990140c6b14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18241
content:
"Appropriate design of policies, institutions and governance systems at all scales can contribute to land-related adaptation and mitigation while facilitating the pursuit \r\nof climate-adaptive development pathways."


id: 54ceb848c97bd70cc21aa3afde0c1515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10795
content:
"Mutually supportive climate and land policies have the potential to save resources, amplify social resilience, support ecological restoration and foster collaboration \r\nbetween stakeholders."


id: 4ab84ae7ce2965e934d0ebe8e06ba82b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9163
content:
"Near-term action to address climate change adaptation and mitigation, desertification, land degradation and food security can bring social, ecological, economic and \r\ndevelopment co-benefits. Delaying action (both mitigation and adaptation) will be more costly."


id: 63166ecc4183c12c1424e246d806a6ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 13157
content:
"The rate of global mean SLR of 3.6 mm yr-1 for 2006-2015 is unprecedented over the last century. Extreme wave heights, coastal erosion and flooding have increased \r\nin the Southern Ocean by around 1.0 cm yr-1 over the period 1985-2018. (IPCC, 20"


id: 6385672b42c905d294e90ba35604e1b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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content:
"Some species of plants and animals have increased in abundance, shifted their range and established in new areas as glaciers receded and the snow-free season \r\nlengthened. Some cold-adapted or snow-dependent species have declined in abundance, increasing their risk of extinction, notably on mountain summits."


id: f6df1f41cbcef7519aedaec06313a105
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36353
content:
"Many marine species have shifted their range and seasonal activities. Altered interactions between species have caused cascading impacts on ecosystem structure and \r\nfunctioning."


id: f5a2c729f454a3949f855611fac1f71f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36167
content:
"Mean SLR projections are higher by 0.1 m compared to AR5 under RCP8.5 in 2100. Extreme sea level events that are historically rare (once per century) are projected \r\nto occur frequently (at least once yr-1) at many locations by 2050."


id: 3366a4928c3a0592e3bd53142cc8a9b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5503
content:
"Projected ecosystem responses include losses of species habitat and diversity and degradation of ecosystem functions. Warm water corals are at high risk already and \r\nare projected to transition to very high risk even if global warming is limited to 1.5degC."


id: d873c488bdde836766852c3a8b25ce1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31579
content:
"Governance arrangements (e.g., marine protected areas, spatial plans and water management systems) are too fragmented across administrative boundaries and \r\nsectors to provide integrated responses to the increasing and cascading risks. Financial, technological, institutional and other barriers exist for implementing responses."


id: cd23de6ca872ab9b7c2bf08b438b45b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29825
content:
"Enabling climate resilience and sustainable development depends critically on urgent and ambitious emissions reductions coupled with coordinated, sustained and \r\nincreasingly ambitious adaptation actions. This includes better cooperation and coordination among governing authorities, education and climate literacy, sharing of \r\ninformation and knowledge, finance, addressing social vulnerability and equity, and institutional support."


id: c9a2925d4b943d797b16b0276ca1406
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29279
content:
"Reliable measurements are limited for some types of storms, particularly \r\nthunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes and hail (Walsh et al., 2016). Many \r\nhigh-impact events are a combination of interacting physical processes \r\nacross multiple spatial and temporal scales (e.g., fires, heatwaves and \r\ndroughts), and better understanding of these extreme and compound \r\nevents is needed (Zscheischler et al., 2018)."


id: 854e4db2cf875614478b55a18688d907
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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content:
"extremely high temperatures and fewer extremely low temperatures. \r\nSnow depths and glacier volumes have declined. Sea level rise and \r\nocean acidification have continued. Northern Australia has become \r\nwetter, while April-October rainfall has decreased in south-western \r\nand south-eastern Australia. In New Zealand, most of the south has \r\nbecome wetter, while most of the north has become drier (Figure 11.2). \r\nThe frequency, severity and duration of extreme fire weather conditions \r\nhave increased in southern and eastern Australia and eastern New \r\nZealand. Changes in extreme rainfall are mixed. There has been a \r\ndecline in tropical cyclone frequency near Australia."


id: 8bcec6005443ccec7bd22d790d8482f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:13
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vector_id: 19517
content:
"Some of the observed trends and events can be partly attributed to \r\nanthropogenic climate change, as documented in Chapter 16. Examples \r\ninclude regional warming trends and sea level rise (SLR), terrestrial \r\nand marine heatwaves, declining rainfall and increasing fire weather "


id: 12b5bcc9eafa3622005317c82bc7ca2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
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vector_id: 445
content:
"broadly agree with CMIP5 projections except for a group of CMIP6 \r\nmodels with greater warming and a narrower range of summer rainfall \r\nchange in the north and winter rainfall change in the south (Grose \r\net al., 2020). For New Zealand, the CMIP6 projections are similar to \r\nCMIP5, but the CMIP6 models indicate greater warming, a smaller \r\nincrease in summer precipitation and a larger increase in winter \r\nprecipitation (Gutierrez et al., 2021)."


id: d31ee9d4ed04982b96b8064e4abe906b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30738
content:
"There are three main sources of uncertainty in climate projections: \r\nemission scenarios, regional climate responses and internal climate \r\nvariability (CSIRO and BOM, 2015). Emission scenario uncertainty \r\nis captured in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for \r\ngreenhouse gases and aerosols. RCP2.6 represents low emissions, \r\nRCP4.5 medium emissions and RCP8.5 high emissions. Regional climate \r\nresponse uncertainty and internal climate variability uncertainty are \r\ncaptured in climate model simulations driven by the RCPs."


id: 6f13bec56f43f7ce814bb6db5b071263
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15103
content:
"Dynamical and statistical downscaling offer the prospect of improved \r\nrepresentation of regional climate features and extreme weather events \r\n(IPCC 2021: Working Group I Chapter 10 (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021)), \r\nbut the added value of downscaling is complex to evaluate (Ekstrom \r\net  al., 2015; Rummukainen, 2015; Virgilio et  al., 2021). Downscaled \r\nsimulations are available for New Zealand (MfE, 2018) and various \r\nAustralian regions (Gutierrez et al., 2021). Further downscaling was \r\nrecommended by the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster \r\nArrangements (CoA, 2020e). Projections for rainfall, thunderstorms, \r\nhail, lightning and tornadoes have large uncertainties (Walsh et  al., \r\n2016; MfE, 2018)."


id: af983483dc67cc89fe33264184066887
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25143
content:
"Further climate change is inevitable, with the rate and magnitude \r\nlargely dependent on the emission pathway (very high confidence) \r\n(IPCC, 2021). Preliminary projections based on Climate Model \r\nIntercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are described in \r\nthe IPCC Working Group I Atlas. For Australia, the CMIP6 projections "


id: 917e7d19fa60a0a7afa0091604cafcba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 20425
content:
"Future changes in climate variability are affected by the El Nino \r\nSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Indian \r\nOcean Dipole (IOD) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). An \r\nincrease in strong El Nino and La Nina events is projected (Cai, 2015), \r\nalong with more extreme positive phases of the IOD (Cai et al., 2018) \r\nand a positive trend in SAM (Lim et al., 2016), but potential changes \r\nin the IPO are unknown (NESP ESCC, 2020). There is uncertainty about \r\nregional climate responses to projected changes in ENSO (King et al., \r\n2015; Perry et al., 2020; Virgilio et al., 2021)."


id: 54d714ab5b36c1f1937da88970a2ba2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10803
content:
"Australian climate projections are quantified with references in \r\nTable 11.3a. Further warming is projected, with more hot days, fewer \r\ncold days, reduced snow cover, ongoing sea level rise (SLR) and ocean \r\nacidification (very high confidence). Winter and spring rainfall and soil \r\nmoisture are projected to decrease, with higher evaporation rates, \r\ndecreased wind over southern mainland Australia, increased wind \r\nover Tasmania, and more extreme fire weather in southern and eastern \r\nAustralia (high confidence). Heavy rainfall intensity is projected to \r\nincrease, with more droughts over southern and eastern Australia \r\n(medium confidence). Increased winter rainfall is projected over \r\nTasmania, with decreased rainfall in southwestern Victoria in autumn \r\nand in western Tasmania in summer, fewer tropical cyclones with a \r\ngreater proportion of severe cyclones and decreased soil moisture in \r\nthe north (medium confidence). Hailstorm frequency may increase (low \r\nconfidence)."


id: 5cc753fc6366ee7e220f8ba4f9b831f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 12111
content:
"This section assesses observed impacts, projected risks and adaptation \r\nfor 10 sectors and systems. Boxes provide more details on specific \r\nissues. Risk is considered in terms of vulnerability, hazards (impact \r\ndriver), exposure, reasons for concern and complex and cascading risks \r\n(Chapter 1; Figure 1.2)."


id: b457c7d829fa29a045663d2883b1a36b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 25891
content:
"In the near term (2030-2060), climate change is projected to become \r\nan increasingly dominant stress on the region's biodiversity, with \r\nsome ecosystems experiencing irreversible changes in composition \r\nand structure and some threatened species becoming extinct (high \r\nconfidence). Climate change will interact with current ecological \r\nconditions, threats and pressures, with cascading ecological impacts, "


id: bd4cb3cdf24070e285ebd110d49b8575
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Table 11.3a |  Projected climate change for Australia. Projections are given for different RCPs (RCP2.6 is low, RCP4.5 is medium, RCP8.5 is high) and years (e.g., 20-year period \r\ncentred on 2090). Uncertainty ranges are generally 10th-90th percentile, and median projections are given in square brackets where possible. The four Australian regions are shown \r\nin Chapter 2 of (CSIRO and BOM, 2015). Preliminary projections based on CMIP6 models are included for some climate variables from the IPCC (2021) WGI report."


id: f351fa2b2f542ca28dc45b01433072c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 35790
content:
"Table 11.3b |  Projected climate change for New Zealand. Projections are given for different RCPs (RCP2.6 is low, RCP4.5 is medium, RCP8.5 is high) and years (e.g., 20-year period \r\ncentred on 2090). Uncertainty ranges are 5th-95th percentiles, and median projections are given in square brackets where possible. Preliminary projections (10th-90th percentiles) \r\nbased on CMIP6 models are included for some climate variables from the IPCC (2021) WGI report."


id: ed349235b8d2265e2086f643c8f8477d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34797
content:
"A loss of alpine biodiversity in the southeast Australian Alps bioregion \r\nis projected in the near-term as a result of less snow on snow patch \r\nfeldmark and short alpine herb fields as well as increased stress on snow\u0002dependent plant and animal species (high confidence) (Table  11.3, \r\nTable 11.5). In Australia, invasive plants' and weeds' response rates \r\nare expected to be faster than for native species, and climate change \r\ncould foster the appearance of a new set of weed species, with many \r\nbioregions facing increased impacts from non-native plants (medium \r\nconfidence) (Gallagher et  al., 2013; Scott et  al., 2014; March-Salas \r\nand Pertierra, 2020) (Table 11.5), along with declines in some listed \r\nweeds (Duursma et al., 2013; Gallagher et al., 2013). In New Zealand, \r\nclimate change is projected to enable invasive species to expand to \r\nhigher elevations and southwards (medium confidence) (Table 11.5) \r\n(Giejsztowt et al., 2020; MfE, 2020a)."


id: 9458092a571f55a260ac9f51c974599c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 20848
content:
"Projected responses of ecosystem processes are uncertain in part due \r\nto complex interactions of climate change with soil respiration, plant \r\nnutrient availability (Hasegawa et al., 2015; Orwin et al., 2015; Ochoa\u0002Hueso et  al., 2017) and changing fire regimes (Table  11.5) (Scheiter \r\net al., 2015; Dowdy et al., 2019). For aquatic biota, responses will reflect \r\nseasonal differences in water temperature (Wallace et al., 2015) and \r\nchanges in rainfall intensity, productivity and biodiversity (Jardine et al., \r\n2015). Extreme floods may have negative impacts on New Zealand \r\nriver biota, by mobilising nutrients, sediments and toxic chemicals and \r\naiding the dispersal of invasive species. These effects are compounded \r\nby homogenisation of rivers through channelisation (Death et al., 2015)."


id: 131f2670321ca4f73361ed6531aaf185
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In southern Australia, some forest ecosystems (alpine ash, snow gum \r\nwoodland, pencil pine, northern jarrah) are projected to transition to a \r\nnew state or collapse due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires \r\n(high confidence) (Table  11.5). In Australia, most native eucalyptus \r\nforest plants have a range of traits that enable them to persist with \r\nrecurrent fire through recovery buds (sprouters) or regenerate through \r\nseeding (Collins, 2020), affording them a high level of resilience. For \r\nhigh-end projected 2060-2080 fire weather conditions in southeast \r\nAustralia (Clarke and Evans, 2019), stand-killing wildfires could occur \r\nat a severity and frequency greater than the regenerative capacity \r\nof seeders (Enright et al., 2015; Clarke and Evans, 2019). Most New \r\nZealand native plants are not fire resistant and are projected to be \r\nreplaced by fire-resistant introduced species following climate-change\u0002related fires (Perry et al., 2014)."


id: 69ea821c84b62282b39843a96dd9a1be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Improved coastal modelling, experiments and in situ studies are \r\nreducing uncertainties at a local scale about the impact of future sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) on coastal freshwater terrestrial wetlands (medium \r\nconfidence) (Shoo et al., 2014; Bayliss et al., 2018; Grieger et al., 2019). \r\nLow-lying coastal wetlands are susceptible to saltwater intrusion from \r\nsea level rise (SLR) (Shoo et al., 2014; Kettles and Bell, 2015; Finlayson \r\net al., 2017) with consequences for species dependent on freshwater \r\nhabitats (Houston et  al., 2020). Saline habitat conditions will move "


id: 4ec7ac8fbcca3fbc0d20b44106976f0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Table 11.4 |  Observed impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and species in the region where there is documented evidence that these are directly (e.g., a species \r\nthermal tolerances are exceeded) or indirectly (e.g., through changed fire regimes) the result of climate change pressures."


id: d0621c128c20f3cb803f0abfc3ff20d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"confidence) (Guerin and Lowe, 2013; Reside et al., 2014; Shoo et al., \r\n2014; Keppel et al., 2015; Andrew and Warrener, 2017; Baumgartner \r\net al., 2018; Harris et al., 2018; Jacobs et al., 2018a; Das et al., 2019; \r\nWalker et al., 2019; Molloy et al., 2020). Landscape planning (Bond \r\net al., 2014; McCormack, 2018) helps reduce habitat loss, facilitates \r\nspecies dispersal and gene flow (McLean et al., 2014; Shoo et al., 2014; \r\nLowe et al., 2015; Harris et al., 2018; McCormack, 2018) and allows for \r\nnew ecological opportunities (Norman and Christidis, 2016). Coastal \r\nsqueeze is a threat to freshwater wetlands and requires planning \r\nfor the potential inland shift (Grieger et al., 2019). Adaptations that \r\nmaintain critical volumes and periodicity of environmental flows \r\nwill help protect freshwater biodiversity (Box 11.3) (Yen et al., 2013; \r\nBarnett et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2018b)."


id: f53c83af98f8793fcc40e21aa9f6a1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36097
content:
"inland and new coastal ecosystem states may emerge, including the \r\nWorld Heritage listed Kakadu's freshwater wetland (Bayliss et al., 2018) \r\n(Table 11.5). Increasingly, sea level rise (SLR) will shrink the intertidal \r\nzone, having implications for wading birds which use this zone (Tait and \r\nPearce, 2019) (Box 11.6). The ecology of freshwater wetlands in New \r\nZealand are projected to be impacted by the intersection of warming, \r\ndrought and heavy rainfall (Pingram et al., 2021) (Table 11.5)."


id: 69bf4fd3af0e861be8e1a1c3dee80d2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14236
content:
"Managing climate change risks to ecosystems is primarily based \r\non reducing the impact of other anthropogenic pressures, including \r\ninvasive species, and facilitating natural adaptation (high confidence). \r\nThis approach is most feasible within protected areas on public, private \r\nand Indigenous land and sea (Bellard et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2020) but \r\nis also applicable elsewhere (Barnes et al., 2015). Effective strategies \r\npromote ecosystem resilience by changing unsustainable land uses \r\nand management practices, increasing habitat connectivity, controlling \r\nintroduced species, restoring habitats, implementing appropriate fire \r\nmanagement, integrated risk assessment and adaptation planning (B. \r\nFrame et al., 2018; Lindenmayer et al., 2020; Macinnis-Ng et al., 2021). \r\nComplementary approaches include ex situ seed banks (Morrison and \r\nPickering, 2013; Christie et al., 2020)."


id: e26a12763fb34f6a6a6d40b97dc5c8f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 33127
content:
"Adaptation research priorities include understanding of the \r\ninteractions and cumulative impacts of existing stressors and \r\nclimate change and the implications for managing ecosystems and \r\nnatural resources (Williams et  al., 2020). For Australia, research on \r\nimplementation strategies for conservation and managing threats, \r\nstress and natural assets is a priority (Williams et  al., 2020). For \r\nNew Zealand, understanding how terrestrial ecosystems and species \r\nrespond to climate change is a priority, and where existing stressors \r\nare affecting freshwater quantity and quality, in situ monitoring \r\nto detect and evaluate projections of climate change impacts on "


id: cad57b9cfe7c28dee137b587dda95454
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29472
content:
"Table 11.5 |  An indicative selection of projected climate-change impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and species in Australia and New Zealand respectively."


id: 4132e46c75e89f794d68b172412785fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"biodiversity and a national data repository are lacking (MfE, 2020a). \r\nThe projected increase in invasive species indicates the importance \r\nof a step-up in pest management efforts to ensure native species \r\npersistence as invasive species spread from climate change (Firn \r\net al., 2015). There remains a gap between the knowledge generated, \r\npotential adaptation strategies and their incorporation into \r\nconservation instruments (medium confidence) (Graham et al., 2019\r\nHoeppner and Hughes, 2019), though there is increasing recognitio\r\nof the need to improve governance and management structures fo\r\ntheir implementation (Christie et al., 2020)."


id: 22f43c00ded5e94d70444fbda188ea7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"50,000 km of coastline (Dhanjal-Adams et  al., 2016), spanning sub\u0002Antarctic islands in the south to tropical waters in the north. New \r\nZealand's marine territory extends from the sub-tropics to sub\u0002"


id: 4007102bfe3ba797a8dc7e8d06c39dc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7455
content:
"Fire activity depends on weather, ignition sources, land management practices and fuel flammability, availability and continuity (Bradstock \r\net al., 2014). Increased fire activity in southeast Australia associated with climate change has been observed since 1950 (Abram et al., \r\n2021), though trends vary regionally (medium confidence) (Bradstock et al., 2014). In New Zealand, there has been an increased frequency \r\nof major wildfires in plantations (FENZ, 2018) and at the rural-urban interface (medium confidence) (Pearce, 2018). In northern Australia, \r\nincreased wet season rainfall (Gallego et al., 2017) has increased dry season fuel loads (Harris et al., 2008)."


id: b8e63209e3e6c499a3b672a7957fa344
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26619
content:
"In Australia, the frequency and severity of dangerous fire weather conditions is increasing, with partial attribution to climate change \r\n(very high confidence) (Dowdy and Pepler, 2018; Abram et al., 2021) (11.2.1, Figure Box 11.1.1), especially in southern and eastern \r\nAustralia during spring and summer (Harris and Lucas, 2019). Although Australia's eucalyptus forests and woodlands are fire adapted \r\n(Collins, 2020), increasing intensity and frequency of fires may exceed their resilience because of the shorter intervals between high\u0002severity fires (Bowman et al., 2014; Etchells et al., 2020; Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020a). Recent fires have severely impacted eastern \r\nrainforests, including significant Gondwana refugia (Abram et al., 2021). In New Zealand, the trends in very high and extreme fire weather \r\n(1997-2019) have not yet been attributed to climate change (MfE, 2020a)."


id: f94acc187ec04da1fe45bda093e5ba62
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"For New Zealand, there has been recent increased frequency and magnitude of property losses due to wildfire (Pearce, 2018). The \r\n1660-hectare Port Hills fire in 2017 resulted in the greatest house losses (9) in almost 100 years (Langer et al., 2018), but the subsequent \r\n5540-hectare Lake Ohau fire destroyed 53 houses in 2020 (Waitaki District Council, 2020)."


id: b316d0ea4f4892dcfd176a28be70d292
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In Australia, between 1987 and 2016, there were 218 deaths, 1000 injuries, 2600 people left homeless and 69,000 people affected by \r\nwildfire (Deloitte, 2017b). Wildfires cost about AUD$1.1 billion per year on average (11.5.2)."


id: 889077711b3d8ada66217bc4a3fec1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"In the face of climate change and the increased cost of fire damage and suppression, there has been considerable investment in fire risk \r\nreduction (Table Box 11.1.1). Recent analysis of 8800 fires in Australia shows resource constraints in response capacity are a barrier to \r\neffectively containing fires (Collins et al., 2018b), compounded by lengthened and more extreme fire seasons."


id: 552ee9000df4b7c49547eaba5675f456
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Figure Box 11.1.1 |  Change in the annual (July to June) number of days that the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeds its 90th percentile from July \r\n1985 to June 2020 relative to July 1950 to June 1985 (BoM and CSIRO, 2020; Abram et al., 2021)."


id: 3fe2d33823759fc0ae6062cde8729f5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Table Box 11.1.1 |  Examples of adaptation options and enablers to reduce wildfire risk (Hart and Langer, 2011; Mitchell, 2013; Price et al., 2015; Tolhurst \r\nand McCarthy, 2016; Deloitte, 2017b; Miller et al., 2017; Steffen et al., 2017; Kornakova and Glavovic, 2018; Newton et al., 2018; Pearce, 2018; CoA, 2020e; McKemey \r\net al., 2020)."


id: c0c8bb1d8e692e4575afc8c41ea302b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Figure Box 11.1.2 |  Cascading impacts on people, economic activity, built assets, ecosystems and species arising from the Black Summer fires of \r\n2019-2020 in eastern and southern Australia (Boer et al., 2020; CoA, 2020e; CoA, 2020b; CoA, 2020a; CSIRO, 2020; Filkov et al., 2020; Johnston et al., 2020; \r\nWard et al., 2020; Wintle et al., 2020; Abram et al., 2021; Godfree et al., 2021)."


id: df7c27bdcf399ae7ad03b8944e13efe2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32664
content:
"Antarctic waters, encompassing an EEZ of 4 million km2, 18,000 km \r\nof coastline and 700 smaller islands and islets, in addition to the two \r\nmain islands (Costello et al., 2010a; MfE, 2016)."


id: 34bf27efc51eb723101e7005a3294d0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"et al., 2016; Zarco-Perello et al., 2017; Thomsen et al., 2019). Extreme \r\nclimatic events in Australia from 2011 to 2017 led to abrupt and \r\nextensive mortality of key habitat-forming organisms--corals, kelps, \r\nseagrasses and mangroves--along over 45% of the continental \r\ncoastline of Australia (high confidence) (Babcock et al., 2019)."


id: f96a9dad62898a382bf8c1c48211f649
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 36751
content:
"The marine environment is important to the culture, health and well\u0002being of the region's diverse Indigenous Peoples, including those who \r\nhad sovereign ownership, governance, resource rights, and stewardship \r\nover 'Sea Country' for many thousands of years before the current sea \r\nlevel stabilised approximately 6000 years ago and before current coastal \r\necosystems were established (Rist et al., 2019). Marine environments \r\ncontribute AUD$69 billion per yearto Australia's economy (Eadie et al., \r\n2011), and NZD$4  billion per year to New Zealand's economy (MfE, \r\n2016). They have a high proportion of rare and endemic species (Croxall \r\net al., 2012) and provide ecosystem services including food production, \r\ncoastal protection, tourism and carbon sequestration (Croxall et  al., \r\n2012; Kelleway et al., 2017). Half of the species within New Zealand's \r\nseas are endemic (Costello et al., 2010b)."


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"Climate change is having major impacts on the region's oceans (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Table  11.6) (Law et  al., 2016; Sutton and Bowen, \r\n2019). Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have exacerbated marine \r\nheatwaves, notably near western Australia in 2011, the GBR in 2016, \r\n2017 and 2020 and the Tasman Sea in 2015/2016, 2017/2018 and \r\n2018/2019 (Table 11.2) (BoM and CSIRO, 2018; AMS, 2019; NIWA, 2019; \r\nSalinger et al., 2019b; Sutton and Bowen, 2019; BoM, 2020; Salinger \r\net al., 2020; Oliver et al., 2021). Temperature anomalies ranged from \r\n1.2degC to 4.0degC and durations ranged from 90-250 days (Table 11.2)."


id: 9d48f0db3502a3de930561ef917c293a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Ocean carbon storage and acidification has led to decreased surface \r\npH in the region (Table 11.2), including the sub-Antarctic waters off \r\nthe East Coast of New Zealand's South Island (very high confidence) \r\n(Law et al., 2016). The depth of the Aragonite Saturation Horizon has \r\nshallowed by 50-100 m over much of New Zealand, which may limit \r\nand/or increase the energetic costs of growth of calcifying species \r\n(low confidence) (Anderson et al., 2015; Bostock et al., 2015; Mikaloff\u0002Fletcher et al., 2017)."


id: 5a36d4e8a33c283d1a786e98be81757
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In the estuaries of southwestern Australia, sustained warming and \r\ndrying trends have caused dramatic declines in freshwater flows of \r\nup to 70% since the 1970s and increased frequency and severity of \r\nhypersaline conditions, enhanced water column stratification and \r\nhypoxia and reduced flushing and greater retention of nutrients \r\n(Hallett et al., 2017)."


id: 57b5e471db7553eb4aa4c34704523da3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Extensive changes in the life history and distribution of species have \r\nbeen observed in Australia's (very high confidence) (Gervais et  al., \r\n2021) and New Zealand's marine systems (medium confidence) \r\n(Table 11.6) (Cross-Chapter box MOVING SPECIES in Chapter 5). New \r\noccurrences or increased prevalence of disease, toxins and viruses are \r\nevident (de Kantzow et al., 2017; Condie et al., 2019), along with heat \r\nstress mortalities and changes in community composition (Wernberg "


id: 3e034d0127abbdf56373f6e1d6e84c86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Table 11.6 |  Observed climate-change-related changes in the marine ecosystems of Australia and New Zealand. Climate-related impacts have been documented at a range of \r\nscales from single-species or region-specific studies to multi-species or community-level changes."


id: 8b23bebaa01eae291f6370c357a9f8bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"The GBR is the world's largest coral reef system, comprising 3863 reefs over an area of 348,700 km2, stretching for 2300 km. The GBR \r\nis a central cornerstone of the beliefs, knowledges, lores, languages and ways of living for over 70 geographically and culturally diverse \r\nTraditional Owner groups spanning the length of the GBR (Dale et al., 2018), and it contributes an estimated AUD$6.4 billion per year\r\n(pre-COVID) to the Australian economy, mainly via tourism. As the world's most extensive coral reef ecosystem, the GBR is a globally \r\noutstanding and significant entity, with practically the entire ecosystem inscribed as a World Heritage Site in 1981 (UNESCO, 1981)."


id: f90cb7074643e269a0d5bf3357eb1054
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Increased heat exposure also affects the abundance and distribution of associated fish, invertebrates and algae (high confidence) (Stuart\u0002Smith et al., 2018). Thus, coral bleaching is an indicator of thermal effects on coral habitat, fauna and flora. Bleaching is expected to \r\ncontinue for the GBR and Australia's other coral reef systems (virtually certain). Bleaching conditions are projected to occur twice each \r\ndecade from 2035, annually after 2044 under RCP8.5 and annually after 2051 under RCP4.5 (Heron et al., 2017). Global warming of 3degC \r\nwould result in over six times the 2016 level of thermal stress (Lough et al., 2018)."


id: e90a4bc4418a23db8762725572e3cb04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Increases in cyclone intensity projected for this century, and other extreme weather events, will greatly accelerate coral reef degradation \r\n(Osborne et al., 2017). Additionally, through interactions between elevated ocean temperature and coastal runoff (nutrient and sediment), \r\nextreme weather events may contribute to an increased frequency and/or amplitude of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks (Uthicke et al., \r\n2015), further reducing the spatial distribution of coral."


id: b452352238238e558245ace47b8fe104
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Recovery of coral reefs following repeated disturbance events is slow (Hughes et al., 2019b; IPCC, 2019b), and it takes at least a decade \r\nafter each bleaching event for the very fastest growing corals to recover (high confidence) (Gilmour et al., 2013; Osborne et al., 2017). \r\nEstimates of future levels of thermal stress, measured as degree heating months, which incorporates both the magnitude and duration \r\nof warm season SST anomalies, suggest that achieving the 1.5degC Paris Agreement target would be insufficient to prevent more frequent \r\nmass bleaching events (very high confidence) (Lough et al., 2018), although it may reduce their occurrence (Heron et al., 2017), and \r\noccurrences of warming events similar to 2016 bleaching could be reduced by 25% (King et al., 2017)."


id: b183b4d94ee2818d44256d792ec5d7f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Tourist motivations for visiting the GBR are changing, with a recent survey finding that two-thirds of tourists were visiting 'before it was \r\ngone' and a similar number were reporting damage to the reef--an example of 'last chance tourism' (Piggott-McKellar and McNamara, \r\n2016). The Australian government is investing AUD$1.9 billion to support the GBR through science and practical environmental outcomes, \r\nincluding reducing other anthropogenic pressures, which can suppress natural adaptive capacity (CoA, 2019b; GBRMPA, 2019). However, \r\nadaptation efforts on the GBR aimed specifically at climate impacts, for example coral restoration following marine heatwave impacts \r\n(Bostrom-Einarsson et al., 2020), may slow the impacts of climate change in small discrete regions of the reef or reduce short-term \r\nsocioeconomic ramifications, but they will not prevent widespread bleaching (Condie et al. 2021)."


id: 535b95f3c60f8f90d2676987c195d6b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Figure Box 11.2.1 |  Top panels: spatial patterns in heat exposure along the GBR in 2016 (left pair) and 2017 (right pair), measured from satellites \r\nas Degree Heating Weeks (DHW, degC-weeks). Middle panels: geographic footprint of recurrent coral bleaching in 2016 (left) and again in 2017 (right), measured by \r\naerial assessments of individual reefs (adapted from (Hughes et al., 2019c)]). Bottom panels: density of coral recruits (mean per recruitment panel on each reef), measured \r\nover three decades, from 1996 to 2016 (n = 47 reefs, 1784 panels) (left), compared to the density of coral recruits in 2018 after the mass mortality of corals in 2016 and \r\n2017 due to the back-to-back bleaching events (n = 17 reefs, 977 panels) (right). The area of each circle is scaled to the overall recruit density of spawners and brooders \r\ncombined. Yellow and blue indicate the proportion of spawners and brooders respectively (from (Hughes et al., 2019b)])."


id: 61669bf91b15d35f87a45800c96f3967
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Figure Box 11.2.2 |  Variation in the severity of mass-bleaching episodes \r\nrecorded on Australia's GBR over the last four decades (1980-2020). The \r\noverall number of reefs surveyed was substantially higher in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017 \r\nand 2020 when aerial surveys were undertaken, whereas the severity of other more \r\nlocalised bleaching episodes was documented with in-water surveys (adapted from \r\n(Pratchett et al., 2021). Extent of bleaching in 2020 was similar in severity to that of \r\n2016 but more geographically widespread and included southern reefs."


id: c6d0b7e716c81bb40cbe7a8c6585ce87
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Nutrient availability and productivity in the sub-tropical waters \r\nof New Zealand are projected to decline due to increased SST and \r\nstrengthening of the thermocline, but they may increase in sub\u0002Antarctic waters, potentially bringing some benefit to fish and other \r\nspecies (low confidence) (Law et al., 2018b). For New Zealand waters \r\nas a whole, declines in net primary productivity of 1.2% and 4.5% are \r\nprojected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively by 2100, and declines \r\nin the primary production of surface waters by an average 6% from the \r\npresent day under RCP8.5, with sub-tropical waters experiencing the \r\nlargest decline (Tait et al., 2016)."


id: 21d9bc1044b58b85f1fefcb2cd45b0d4
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"The pH of surface waters around New Zealand is projected to decline \r\nby 0.33 under RCP 8.5 by 2090 (Tait et al., 2016), and the depth at \r\nwhich carbonate dissolves is projected to be significantly shallower \r\n(Mikaloff-Fletcher et  al., 2017), affecting the distribution of some \r\nspecies of calcifying cold water corals (medium confidence) (Law \r\net al., 2016). However, model projections suggest that the top of the \r\nChatham Rise may provide temporary refugia for scleractinian stony \r\ncorals from ocean acidification because the Chatham Rise sits above \r\nthe aragonite saturation horizon (Anderson et al., 2015; Bostock et al., \r\n2015). For sub-tropical corals, skeletal formation will be vulnerable \r\nto the changes in ocean pH, with implications for their longer-term \r\ngrowth and resilience (Foster et al., 2015)."


id: e1b976420bb28bbc3cbcb3a718287c7c
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"interactions, including changes in climate inputs, fire patterns \r\n(Box 11.1) and nutrient availability (Raupach et al., 2013; Ukkola et al., \r\n2016; Cheng et al., 2017)."


id: 1166a9b57fb568454b3568da0ba5646c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Climate change impacts on freshwater resources cascade across \r\npeople, agriculture, industries and ecosystems (Boxes 11.3 and 11.5). \r\nThe challenge of satisfying multiple demands with a finite resource is \r\nexacerbated by high interannual and inter-decadal variability of river \r\nflows, particularly in Australia (Chiew and McMahon, 2002; Peel et al., \r\n2004; McKerchar et al., 2010)."


id: ad7093e63a77f305201adcc6b6d832cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Climate change is projected to affect groundwater recharge and the \r\nrelationship between surface waters and aquifers and through rising \r\nsea levels where groundwater has a tidal signature (PCE, 2015; MfE, \r\n2017a). Groundwater recharge across southern Australia has decreased \r\nin recent decades (Fu et al., 2019), and this trend is expected to continue \r\n(high confidence) (Barron et  al., 2011; Crosbie et  al., 2013). Climate \r\nchange is also projected to impact water quality in rivers and water \r\nbodies, particularly through higher temperature and low flows (Johnk \r\net  al., 2008) (Box  11.5) and increased sediment and nutrient load \r\nfollowing wildfires (high confidence) (Biswas et al., 2021) (Box 11.1) \r\nand floods (Box 11.4)."


id: b6a46d83662a5c2a9a8f4be8cd9e0e41
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"The projected changes in river flows in New Zealand are consistent \r\nwith the precipitation projections (Table 11.2), with increases in the \r\nwest and south of the South Island and decreases in the east and \r\nnorth of the North Island (Figure 11.4). In the South Island, the runoff \r\nincrease occurs mainly in winter due to increasing moisture-bearing \r\nwesterly airflow, with more precipitation falling as rain and snow \r\nmelting earlier. In the North Island, the runoff decrease occurs in spring \r\nand summer (Caruso et  al., 2017; Collins et  al., 2018a; Jobst et  al., \r\n2018; D. Collins, 2020)."


id: b025a9dd83b58cbe508d93472b670948
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"In New Zealand, precipitation has generally decreased in the north \r\nand increased in the southwest (Figure 11.2) (Harrington et al., 2014), \r\nbut it is difficult to ascertain trends in the relatively short streamflow \r\nrecords. Glaciers in New Zealand's southern alps have lost one third of \r\ntheir mass since 1977 (Mackintosh et al., 2017; Salinger et al., 2019b), \r\nand glacier mass loss in 2018 was at least 10 times more likely to occur \r\nwith anthropogenic forcing than without (Vargo et al., 2020)."


id: 6107e05c8be7a684342e2ac12639f08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"In Australia, prolonged droughts and projections of a drier future \r\nhave accelerated policy and management change in urban and rural \r\nwater systems. Adaptation initiatives and mechanisms, like significant \r\ngovernment investment to enhance the Bureau of Meteorology online \r\nwater information (Vertessy, 2013; BoM, 2016), funding to improve \r\nagricultural water use and irrigation efficiency (Koech and Langat, \r\n2018), enhanced supply through inter-basin transfers and upgrading \r\nwater infrastructure and an active water trading market (Wheeler \r\net al., 2013; Kirby et al., 2014; Grafton et al., 2016) are helping to buffer \r\nregional systems against droughts and facilitating some adaptation to \r\nclimate change (medium confidence). However, these measures could \r\nalso be maladaptive because they may perpetuate unsustainable water \r\nand land uses under ongoing climate change (Boxes 11.3 and 11.5)."


id: 6c5ee7a4ccff8c67c837ee32754176cb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Projections indicate that future runoff in southeast and southwest \r\nAustralia are likely to decline (median estimates of 20% and 50% \r\nrespectively under 2.2degC global average warming) (Figure 11.3) (Chiew \r\net al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2019). These projections are broadly similar \r\nto those reported previously and in AR5 (Teng et al., 2012; Reisinger \r\net al., 2014). The range of estimates arises mainly from the uncertainty \r\nin projected future precipitation (Table 11.2a)."


id: f34bc3673303310140c20742f37b5c70
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"The runoff decline in southern Australia is projected to be further \r\naccentuated by higher temperature and potential evapotranspiration \r\n(Potter and Chiew, 2011; Chiew et al., 2014), transpiration from tree \r\nregrowth following more frequent and severe wildfires (Brookhouse \r\net al., 2013) (Box 11.1), interceptions from farm dams (Fowler et al., \r\n2015) and reduced surface-groundwater connectivity (limiting \r\ngroundwater discharge to rivers) in long dry spells (high confidence) \r\n(Petrone et al., 2010; Hughes et al., 2012; Chiew et al., 2014). In the \r\nlonger term, runoff will also be affected by changes in vegetation \r\nand surface-atmosphere feedback in a warmer and higher CO2\r\nenvironment, but the impact is uncertain because of the complex "


id: 434f803ec00055237162982ad40c7ed4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"2046-2075 relative to 1976-2005 for RCP8.5 from hydrological modelling with future climate projections informed by 42 CMIP5 GCMs "


id: 8209929e5b8cc9c77a235da2d361a2fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Figure 11.3 |  Projected changes in mean annual runoff for 2046-2075 relative to 1976-2005 for RCP8.5 from hydrological modelling with future climate \r\nprojections informed by 42 CMIP5 GCMs. Projections for RCP4.5 are about three quarters of the aforementioned projections. Plots show median projection and the 10th and \r\n90th percentile range of estimates. The boundaries are based on hydroclimate regions and major drainage basins. Source: (Zheng et al., 2019)."


id: 3f0bdb521a499dfced6cf4f7bfde177f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Altered water regimes resulting from the combined effects of climatic \r\nconditions and water policies carry uneven and far-reaching implications \r\nfor communities (high confidence). Acting on Indigenous Peoples' claims \r\nto cultural flows (to maintain their connections with their country) is \r\nincreasingly recognised as an important water management and social \r\njustice issue (Taylor et al., 2017; Hartwig et al., 2018; Jackson, 2018; \r\nJackson and Moggridge, 2019; Moggridge et al., 2019). Compounding \r\nstressors, such as coal and coal seam gas developments, can also \r\nseverely impact local communities, water catchments and water\u0002dependent ecosystems and assets, exacerbating their vulnerability to \r\nclimate change (Navi et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2015; Chiew et al., 2018)."


id: 7139dd0824d338a32d71ef248b61c0c2
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"change. This includes increasing use of stormwater and sewage \r\nrecycling and managed aquifer recharge (Bekele et  al., 2018; Page \r\net al., 2018; Gonzalez et al., 2020). All major coastal Australian cities \r\nhave desalination plants. Household scale adaptation, like rainwater \r\nharvesting, water-smart gardens, dual flush toilets, water-efficient \r\nshowerheads and voluntary residential use targets, can help reduce \r\nwater demand by up to 40% (Shearer, 2011; Rhodes et  al., 2012; \r\nMoglia et al., 2018). Water utilities across Australia have established \r\nclimate change adaptation guidelines (WSAA, 2016). Coordinated \r\nefforts to reduce demand, design and retrofit infrastructure to reduce \r\nflood risk and harvest water and to practice water-sensitive urban \r\ndesign are evident (WSAA, 2016; Kunapo et al., 2018; Rogers et al., \r\n2020b). Transitioning centralised water systems to a more sustainable \r\nbasis represents adaptation progress but is complex and faces many "


id: 44ac16beb42b43f75737703ddc96ec5e
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"are only partially metered or not metered at all, which exacerbates \r\nthe adaptation challenge (Hendy et al., 2018; WaterNz, 2018; Paulik \r\n2019a). Unregulated or absent water supplies accentuate risks to \r\nvulnerable groups of people (MfE, 2020b). Maori view water as the \r\nessence of all life, which makes any impacts on water a governance \r\nand stewardship concern, and increasingly, the subject of legal claims \r\n(MfE, 2020a; MfE, 2020b; MfE, 2020c) (11.4.2). Maori understanding \r\nof time can also open up new spaces for rethinking freshwater \r\nmanagement in a climate change context that does not reinforce or \r\nrearticulate multiple environmental injustices (Parsons et al., 2021)."


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"barriers and limits (medium confidence) (Morgan et  al., 2020). \r\nDeveloping multiple redundant or decentralised systems can enhance \r\ncommunity resilience and promote autonomous adaptations that may \r\nbe more sustainable and cost effective in the longer term (Mankad and \r\nTapsuwan, 2011; WSAA, 2016; Iwanaga et al., 2020)."


id: b7311bc7e0f2362540b9d9fe612a69b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"In New Zealand, many water supplies are at risk from drought, extreme \r\nrainfall events and sea level rise (SLR), exacerbated by underinvestment \r\nin existing water infrastructure (in part due to funding constraints) \r\nand urban densification (high confidence) (CCATWG, 2017; MfE and \r\nStats NZ, 2021). Lessons can be learned from global experience (e.g., \r\nCape Town, South Africa; Section 4.3.4). Water quality has diminished, \r\nwith hotter conditions and drought causing algal blooms, combined \r\nwith intensification of agricultural land uses in some areas, and heavy \r\nrainfall and sea level rise (SLR) causing flooding and sedimentation \r\nof water sources and health impacts (11.3.6; Box 11.5). Some towns "


id: dc797dcc739a12ee80f2e1727d53635c
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"Water resource adaptation in New Zealand is variable across local \r\ngovernment and water authorities but they all actively monitor water \r\navailability, demand and quality, and most have drought management \r\nplans. The 2019/2020 drought led to water shortages in the most \r\npopulated areas of Waikato, Auckland and Northland, resulting in "


id: 21aa90d71b066ffbdba8b636144c98a4
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"The MDB is Australia's largest, most economically important and politically complex river system (Figure Box 11.3.1). The MDB supports \r\nagriculture worth AUD$24 billion/year, 2.6 million people in diverse rural communities and important environmental assets including 16 \r\nRamsar listed wetlands (DAWE, 2012). Climate change is projected to substantially reduce water resources in the MDB (high confidence), \r\nwith the median projection indicating a 20% decline in average annual runoff under 2.2degC average global warming (Figure  11.3) \r\n(Whetton and Chiew, 2020). This reduction, plus increased demand for water in hot and dry conditions, would increase the already \r\nintense competition for water (high confidence) (CSIRO, 2008; Hart, 2016)."


id: fad2d1b57d013138ceb6f548fce1c9f0
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"Reform initiatives such as water markets, improving agriculture water use efficiency (Koech and Langat, 2018), and increasing \r\nenvironmental water are helping buffer the system against droughts (medium confidence) (Moyle et al., 2017), but they can also be \r\nmaladaptive by perpetuating unsustainable water and land use under ongoing climate change. While water markets can allow users \r\nto adapt and shift water to higher value uses, they can also have adverse impacts unless supported by wider policy goals and planning \r\nprocesses (Wheeler et al., 2013; Kirby et al., 2014; Grafton et al., 2016; Qureshi et al., 2018)."


id: c601b07fbae56937c37dde13c2fa400
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"tensions between land, water and people which are exacerbated by \r\nclimate changes and have yet to be addressed (Box  11.5). The first \r\nNational Adaptation Plan and the Resource Management law reform \r\nhave the potential to help resolve these tensions (11.7.1) (CCATWG, \r\n2017; MfE, 2020a)."


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"water reduction advisories and 5 to 8 weeks' waiting time for water \r\ntank refills and water rationing. The Havelock North water supply \r\ncontamination, which arose after an extreme rainfall event (DIA, \r\n2017a; DIA, 2017b), was exacerbated by fragmented governance and \r\nled to passage of the Taumata Arawai-Water Services Regulator Act \r\nof 2020 and the Water Services Bill of 2020 aimed at the protection \r\nof source water. The 2017 update to the National Policy Statement for \r\nFreshwater Management contains guidelines for implementation at the \r\nregional level (MfE, 2017b), including consideration of climate change, \r\nwhich creates opportunities for adaptation. However, there remain "


id: 1d4278996b6b43bb6f2eb7d7c0c2319f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Pluvial (flash flood from high intensity rainfall) and fluvial (river) flooding are the most costly natural disasters in Australia, averaging \r\nAUD$8.8 billion per year(Deloitte, 2017b). In New Zealand, insured damages for the 12 costliest flood events from 2007 to 2017 exceeded \r\nNZD$472 million, of which NZD$140 million has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Frame et al., 2020). Extreme rainfall \r\nintensity in northern Australia and New Zealand has been increasing, particularly for shorter (sub-daily) duration and more extreme high \r\nrainfall (high confidence) (Westra and Sisson, 2011; Griffiths, 2013; Laz et al., 2014; Rosier et al., 2015) (Table 11.2b). Changes are also \r\noccurring in spatial and temporal patterns and seasonality (Wasko and Sharma, 2015; Zheng et al., 2015; Wasko et al., 2016)."


id: 9fef1139d21ecfcc0a6e18165afed838
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Extreme rainfall is projected to become more intense (high confidence), but the magnitude of change is uncertain (Evans and McCabe, \r\n2013; Bao et al., 2017) (Table 11.3). The insured damage in New Zealand from more intense extreme rainfall under RCP8.5 is projected \r\nto increase 25% by 2080-2100 (Pastor-Paz et al., 2020). In urban areas, extreme rainfall intensity is projected to increase pluvial flood \r\nrisk (high confidence). In New Zealand, 20,000 km2\r\n of land, 675,000 people, and 411,000 buildings with a NZD$135 billion replacement \r\nvalue are exposed to flood risk (Paulik et al., 2019a)."


id: 50562c6fc1fa12d8e56888e7663a0a06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"There is some recognition of the need for flood management and planning to adapt to climate change (medium confidence) (COAG, \r\n2011; CCATWG, 2018; CoA, 2020d). Australian flood estimation guidelines recommend a 5% increase in design rainfall intensity per \r\ndegree global average warming (Bates et al., 2015). In New Zealand, the recommended increase ranges from 5% to more than 10% for \r\nshorter-duration and longer-return-period storms (MfE, 2010; Carey-Smith et al., 2018). Both guidelines also indicate the potential for \r\nhigher increases in extreme rainfall intensity."


id: 677ba23920b0428ff3a6b52b6d78c75f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Adaptation to reduce flooding and its impacts have included improved flood forecasting (Vertessy, 2013; BoM, 2016) and risk management \r\n(AIDR, 2017), accommodating risk through raising floor levels and sealing external doors (Queensland Government, 2011; Wang et al., \r\n2015), deploying temporary levee structures and reducing risk through spatial planning and relocation. Adaptation options in urban \r\nareas include improved stormwater management (Hettiarachchi et al., 2019; Matteo et al., 2019), ecosystem-based approaches such as \r\nmaintaining floodplains, restoring wetlands and retrofitting existing flood control systems to attenuate flows, and water-sensitive urban \r\ndesign (WSAA, 2016; Radcliffe et al., 2017; Radhakrishnan et al., 2017; Rogers et al., 2020b)."


id: 4e4f2aa0453ac2018b3e388c07256672
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 9749
content:
"Adaptation to changing flood risks is currently mostly reactive and incremental in response to flood and heavy rainfall events (high \r\nconfidence). For example, the 2010-2011 flooding in eastern Australia resulted in changes to reservoir operations to mitigate floods \r\n(QFCI, 2012) and insurance practice to cover flood damages (Phelan, 2011; Phelan et al., 2011; QFCI, 2012; Schuster, 2013). Nevertheless, \r\nadaptation planning that is pre-emptive and incorporates uncertainties into flood projections is emerging (medium confidence) \r\n(Schumacher, 2020). Examples from New Zealand include the use of Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) (Lawrence and \r\nHaasnoot, 2017) with Real Options assessment (Infometrics and PSConsulting, 2015) and designing decision signals and triggers to "


id: ab484d345c42eccf2d93a5aa4e4580ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 24461
content:
"monitor changes before physical and coping thresholds are reached (Stephens et al., 2018). Implementing adaptive flood risk management \r\nrelies upon an understanding of how such risks change in uncertain and ambiguous ways necessitating adaptive and robust decision\u0002making processes. These can enable learning through participatory adaptive pathways approaches (Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017; \r\nBosomworth and Gaillard, 2019) and through coordination across different levels of government and statutory mandates, adaptation \r\nfunding and individual and community adaptations (Glavovic et al., 2010; Boston and Lawrence, 2018; McNicol, 2021)."


id: 4347f6f27469a37a056230d2b2f8c318
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 7990
content:
"The food, fibre and ecosystem product sectors are economically \r\nimportant in the region. Agriculture contributes around 4% of New \r\nZealand GDP and 2% of Australian GDP and over 50% of New \r\nZealand's and 11% of Australia's exports (NZ Treasury, 2016; Jackson \r\net al., 2020). Forestry contributes 1% of New Zealand GDP and 0.5% \r\nAustralian GDP (NZ Treasury, 2016; Whittle, 2019). With processing \r\nand indirect effects, the primary sector of New Zealand contributes \r\n25% of GDP (Saunders et al., 2016). The region has the lowest level \r\nof agricultural subsidies across the OECD (OECD, 2017) and highly \r\nresponsive producers to market drivers but limited strategic, longer\u0002term approaches to environmental challenges and adaptation \r\n(Wreford et  al., 2019). Both countries receive government financial \r\ndrought assistance (Pomeroy, 2015; Downing et al., 2016)."


id: 8ba6bd9922bb2f5c3008301413a6707b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 19492
content:
"Impacts resulting from climate change are observed across sectors and \r\nthe region (high confidence). While more intense changes are observed \r\nin Australia, New Zealand is also experiencing impacts, including the \r\neconomic impacts of drought attributable to climate change (Frame \r\net  al. 2020). Overall, modelling indicates that negative impacts will \r\nintensify with increased levels of warming in both countries, with \r\ndeclining crop yield and quality, and negative effects on livestock \r\nproduction and forestry. Although benefits are identified, particularly \r\nin the short term for New Zealand (MfE, 2020a), an absence of studies \r\nthat consider the totality of climatic variables, including extremes, \r\nmoderate the benefits identified from considering only selected \r\nvariables and systems in isolation."


id: cbb33fd1bf3298fd112094b8658a8800
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 29588
content:
"Across all types of agriculture, drought and its physical flow-on effects \r\nhave caused financial and emotional disruption and stress in farm \r\nhouseholds and communities (Austin et al., 2018; Bryant and Garnham, \r\n2018; Yazd et  al., 2019) (11.3.6). Severe and uncertain climate \r\nconditions are statistically associated with increases in farmer suicide \r\n(Crnek-Georgeson et  al., 2017; Perceval et  al., 2019). Rural women \r\noften carry extra stress and responsibilities, including increased unpaid \r\nand paid work and emotional load (Whittenbury, 2013; Hanigan et al., \r\n2018; Rich et al., 2018)."


id: 93f57d1329ab2d44912b3340a7aeb5ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 20784
content:
"Incremental adaptation is occurring (Hochman et  al., 2017; Hughes \r\nand Lawson, 2017; Hughes and Gooday, 2021). In the longer term, \r\ntransformative adaptation, including land use change, will be required \r\n(Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a), both as a result of sectoral adaptations \r\nand mitigation (medium confidence) (Grundy et  al., 2016). Specific \r\nchanges are context specific and challenging to project (Bryan \r\net  al., 2016). Future adaptive capacity may be limited by declining \r\ninstitutional and community capacity resulting from high debt, \r\nunavailability of insurance, increasing regulatory requirements and \r\nfunding mechanisms that lock in ongoing exposure to climate risk, \r\ncreating mental health impacts (Rickards et al., 2014; Wiseman and \r\nBardsley, 2016; McNamara and Buggy, 2017; McNamara et al., 2017; \r\nMoyle et al., 2017; Robinson et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2020; Yazd et al., \r\n2020)."


id: c6775db02b9a26391a6f8e5ead2a8979
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 28798
content:
"Australian crop yields are projected to decline due to hotter and drier \r\nconditions, including intense heat spikes (high confidence) (Anwar \r\net  al., 2015; Lobell et  al., 2015; Prokopy et  al., 2015; Dreccer et  al., \r\n2018; Nuttall et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018a). Interactions of heat and \r\ndrought could lead to even greater losses than heat alone (Sadras and \r\nDreccer, 2015; Hunt et al., 2018). Australian wheat yields are projected \r\nto decline by 2050, with a median yield decline of up to 30% in \r\nsouthwest Australia and up to 15% in southern Australia, with possible \r\nincreases and decreases in the east (Taylor et al., 2018; Wang et al., \r\n2018a). In temperate fruit, accumulated winter chill for horticulture \r\nis projected to further decline (Darbyshire et  al., 2016). Winegrape \r\nmaturity is projected to occur earlier due to warmer temperatures \r\n(high confidence) (Webb et al., 2014; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016; "


id: 123d63fd9bc3c45849a753cad355fba6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 373
content:
"Jarvis et al., 2018; Ausseil et al., 2019b), leading to potential changes \r\nin wine style (Bonada et al., 2015). Rice is susceptible to heat stress, \r\nand average grain yield losses across rice varieties range from 83% \r\nto 53% in experimental trials when heat stress is applied during \r\nplant emergence and grain fill stages (Ali et al., 2019). In Tasmania, \r\nwheat yields are projected to increase, particularly at sites presently \r\ntemperature-limited (Phelan et al., 2014)."


id: 4eca3bb9dd8fda2e9017f999a589e720
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 9830
content:
"New Zealand evidence on impacts across crops is very limited. \r\nPrecipitation and temperature changes alone show minor effects on \r\ncrop yield, and winter yields of some crops may increase (e.g., wheat, \r\nmaize) (Ausseil et al., 2019b). For temperate fruit, loss of winter chill \r\nmay reduce yields in some regions and trigger impacts across supply \r\nchains (Cradock-Henry et al., 2019) (11.5.1). Increased pathogens could \r\ndamage the cut flower, guava and feijoa fruit growing and the honey \r\nand related industries (Lawrence et al., 2016). The combined effects of \r\nchanges in seasonality, temperature, precipitation, water availability \r\nand extremes, such as drought, have the potential to escalate impacts, \r\nbut understanding of these effects is limited."


id: 2db471e40f8faf6f1e9f567128b54134
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Other observed incremental adaptations include later pruning in the \r\ngrape industry to spread harvest period and partially restore wine \r\nbalance, with neutral effects on yield and cost (Moran et  al., 2019; \r\nAusseil et al., 2021). The cotton sector increasingly requires shifts in \r\nsowing dates to avoid financial impacts (Luo et al., 2017). During years \r\nof low water availability, rice growers have been trading water and/or \r\nshifting to dry land farming (Mushtaq, 2016)."


id: b33fcaa4912b4e4b97b172dcefe0ca8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 25715
content:
"Growers in New Zealand are changing the timing of their operations, \r\ngrowing crops within covered enclosures and purchasing insurance \r\n(Cradock-Henry and McKusker, 2015) Teixeira et al. 2018). Investment \r\nof capital in irrigation infrastructure has increased (Cradock-Henry \r\net al., 2018a), although its effectiveness as an adaptation depends on \r\nwater availability (Box 11.5). In industries based on long-lived plants, \r\nsuch as the kiwifruit and grape industries, many of the adaptations \r\n(e.g., breeding and growing heat-adapted and disease-resistant \r\nvarieties) have long lead times and require greater investment than \r\nin the cropping sector (Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a). While breeding \r\nprogrammes for traits with enhanced resilience to future climates \r\nare beginning, there is little evidence of  strategic industry planning \r\n(Cradock-Henry et al., 2018a)."


id: bd267f8480841181054ed925a538fe02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27327
content:
"For drought management, balancing near-term needs with long-term \r\nadaptation to increasing aridity is essential (Downing et  al., 2016). \r\nInsufficient and maladaptive decisions can have far-reaching effects, \r\nincluding changes to resources, infrastructure, services and supply \r\nchains to which others must adapt (Fleming et al., 2015; Graham et al., \r\n2018). While there is potential for a greater proportion of agriculture \r\nto be located to northern Australia, there are significant and complex \r\nagronomic, environmental, institutional, financial and social challenges \r\nfor successful transformation, including the risk of disruption (medium \r\nconfidence) (Jakku et al., 2016)."


id: 94edc7f77ba88d636727453feffd6043
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 20940
content:
"Climate change is projected to shift agro-ecological zones (high \r\nconfidence) (Lenoir and Svenning, 2015; Scheffers et al., 2016). This \r\nincludes the climatically determined cropping strip bounded by the \r\ninner arid rangelands and the wetter coast or mountain ranges in \r\nmainland Australia (Nidumolu et al., 2012; Eagles et al., 2014; Tozer \r\net al., 2014). A narrowing of grain-growing regions is projected with \r\na shift of the inner margin towards the coast under drier and warmer \r\nconditions (Nidumolu et al., 2012; Fletcher et al., 2020). The economic \r\nimpact of the shift depends on adaptation (Sanderson et  al., 2015; \r\nHunt et al., 2019) and how resources, support industries, infrastructure \r\nand settlements adapt. Shifts in agro-ecological zones present some \r\nopportunities, for example warming is projected to be beneficial for \r\nwine production in Tasmania (Harris et al., 2020)."


id: 12ef0e44d0232287f018e7a519bec4cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 485
content:
"increase, for example, new tick- and mosquito-borne diseases such as \r\nbovine ephemeral fever (Kean et al., 2015)."


id: cadf7050a245b2b687683b3f18c405e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 29478
content:
"Both the seasonality and annual production of pasture is changing (high \r\nconfidence). In many regions, warming is increasing winter pasture \r\ngrowth (Lieffering, 2016); the effects on spring growth are more mixed, \r\nwith some regions experiencing increased growth (Newton et al., 2014) \r\nand others experiencing reduced spring growth (Perera et al., 2020). \r\nDroughts are causing economic damage to livestock enterprises, with \r\ndrought and market prices significantly affecting profit (Hughes et al., \r\n2019a), in addition to the impacts on animal health and the livelihoods \r\nof pastoralists, periods of drought contribute to land degradation, \r\nparticularly in the cattle regions of northern Australia (Marshall, 2015). \r\nHeat load in cattle leads to reduced growth rates and reproduction, and \r\nextreme heat waves can lead to death (Lees et al., 2019; Harrington, \r\n2020). Temperatures over 32degC reduce ewe and ram fertility along with \r\nthe birth weight of lambs (van Wettere et al., 2021)."


id: b0a0da1fe176725f90fa6ba3c396adc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Some areas may experience increased pasture growth, but others \r\nmay experience a decrease that cannot be fully offset by adaptation \r\n(high confidence) (Moore and Ghahramani, 2013; Lieffering, 2016; \r\nKalaugher et al., 2017). Climate change may modify the seasonality \r\nof pasture growth rates more than annual yields in New Zealand \r\n(Lieffering, 2016). In eastern parts of Queensland, climate change \r\nimpacts on pasture growth are equivocal, with simple empirical \r\nmodels suggesting a decrease in net primary productivity (Liu et al., \r\n2017), while mechanistic models that include increases in length \r\nof the growing season and the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilisation \r\nindicate increases in pasture growth (Cobon et al., 2020). In Tasmania, \r\nannual pasture production is projected to increase by 13-16%, even \r\nwith summer growth projected to decline with increased interannual \r\nvariability, resulting in a projected increase in milk yields by 3-16% per \r\nannum (Phelan et al., 2015)."


id: d703cdcff79b00f435b701edd7e7ab89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31334
content:
"Beef rangeland systems in Queensland are projected to have benefits \r\nin the southeast through higher CO2 and temperatures extending the \r\ngrowing season and reducing frost, but a warmer and drier climate in \r\nthe southwest may reduce pasture and livestock production (Cobon \r\net  al., 2020). Northern Queensland is most resilient to temperature \r\nand rainfall changes (production limited by soil fertility) while western/\r\ncentral west Queensland is most sensitive to rainfall changes, that is, \r\nlow rainfall is associated with lower productivity (Cobon et al., 2020). \r\nThe social context of climate change impacts and the processes \r\nshaping vulnerability and adaptation, especially at the scale of the \r\nindividual, are critical to successful adaptation efforts (Marshall and \r\nStokes, 2014)."


id: b030bc614be63355a7bbb3cc74482ab5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25244
content:
"Climate change may have increased tree mortality in Australia's \r\ncommercial Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata plantation forests \r\n(Crous et al., 2013; Pinkard et al., 2014). Climate warming enhanced \r\ntree water use and vulnerability to heat (Crous et al., 2013). Increases \r\nin fire frequency and intensity in forests of southern Australia are \r\nleading to diminishing resources available for timber production \r\n(Pinkard et al., 2014) (Box 11.1)."


id: 76ba23262dcf6130adad50c7d7245059
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16262
content:
"The projected declines in rainfall in far southwest and far southeast \r\nmainland Australia are projected to reduce plantation forest yields \r\n(high confidence). Warmer temperatures are projected to reduce forest \r\ngrowth in hotter regions (between 7 and 25%), especially where \r\nspecies are grown at the upper range of their temperature tolerances, \r\nand increase plantation forest growth (>15%) in cooler margins like "


id: 28d3b557a649048eb622661512b0bc6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3856
content:
"Tasmania and the Victorian highlands (2030, A2); emission scenario A2 \r\ncreates a warming trajectory slightly higher than the RCP6.0 warming \r\nscenario, but less than RCP8.5 (Rogelj et al., 2012; Battaglia and Bruce, \r\n2017). Elevated CO2 is projected to increase forest growth if other \r\nbiophysical factors are not limiting (medium confidence) (Quentin \r\net al., 2015; Duan et al., 2018)."


id: 629be1a4283917be6ff601598c09f563
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13081
content:
"impacting abalone and rock lobster fisheries. The percentage of reef \r\nas barrens across eastern Tasmania grew from 3.4% to 15.2% from \r\n2001/2002 to 2016/2017, an approx. 10.5% increase per annum \r\nover the 15-year period (Ling and Keane, 2018). Oysters farmed from \r\nwild spat (Sydney rock oysters Saccostrea glomerata) are most at risk \r\nfrom climate change, primarily due to observed increases in summer \r\ntemperatures and heatwave-related mortalities (Doubleday et  al., \r\n2013). The exceptional 2017/2018 summer heatwave caused significant \r\nlosses of farmed salmon in New Zealand, with farm owners seeking \r\nconsent to move operations to cooler water (Salinger et al., 2019b)."


id: 63e28af96412a6554cad1441e760dadf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13281
content:
"Forestry plantations are projected to be negatively impacted from \r\nincreases in fire weather (Box 11.1), particularly in southern Australia \r\n(high confidence) (Pinkard et al., 2014).  Increased pest damage due \r\nto temperature increases may reduce eucalyptus and pine plantation \r\ngrowth by as much as 40% in some Australian environments by 2050 \r\n(Pinkard et al., 2014). Increased heat and water stress may enhance \r\ninsect pest defoliation for P. radiata in Australia (e.g., Sirex noctilio, Ips \r\ngrandicollis and Essigella californica) (Mead, 2013; Pinkard et al., 2014)."


id: 393f1dfd38e8050cf350cb080e09a473
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6379
content:
"Selective breeding in oysters is projected to be an important global \r\nadaptation strategy for sustainable shellfish aquaculture that can \r\nwithstand future climate-driven change to habitat acidification (Fitzer \r\net al., 2019). Less than a quarter of fisheries management plans for \r\n99 of Australia's most important fisheries considered climate change, \r\nand only to a limited degree (Fogarty et al., 2019; Fogarty et al., 2021). \r\nImplementation of management and policy responses to climate \r\nchange have lagged in part because climate change has not been \r\nconsidered as the most pressing issue (Hobday and Cvitanovic, 2017; \r\nFogarty et al., 2019; Fogarty et al., 2021) (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING \r\nSPECIES in Chapter 5)."


id: 8279b978c7fb1504c559aa1585147de4
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18047
content:
"Adaptation options include increased investment in monitoring forest \r\ncondition and functioning; early detection and management of insect \r\npests, diseases and invasive species; improved selection of land with \r\nappropriate growing conditions for plantation timber production \r\nunder current and future conditions; trialling new species and genetic \r\nvarieties; changing the timing and frequency of planned fuel reduction \r\nfires; introducing more fire-tolerant tree species where appropriate; \r\nreducing ignition sources; and maintaining access and emergency \r\nresponse capacity (Boulter, 2012; Pinkard et al., 2014; Keenan, 2017)."


id: da957cfd0d2165c1a1e0d6e17ee3357d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Almost 90% of the population of Australia and New Zealand is urban \r\n(World Bank, 2019). Each country has vibrant and diverse urban, \r\nrural and remote settlements, with some highly disadvantaged areas \r\nisolated by distance and limited infrastructure and services (Argent \r\net al., 2014; Charles-Edwards et al., 2018; Spector et al., 2019). Some "


id: 5559074b13ebed70e81653ab77d1a27e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10899
content:
"The ecological impacts of climate change on fisheries species have \r\nalready emerged (high confidence) (Morrongiello and Thresher, 2015; \r\nGervais et al., 2021). This includes loss of habitats for fisheries species \r\n(Verges et  al., 2016; Babcock et  al., 2019) and poleward shifts in \r\nthe distribution of barrens-forming urchins (Ling and Keane, 2018) "


id: 2f653f6793bd5de20ade644f278cca52
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"New Zealand's economy, dominated by the primary sector and the tourist industry (pre-COVID), relies upon a 'clean green' image of \r\nwater, natural ecosystems and pristine landscapes (Foote et al., 2015; Roche and Argent, 2015; Hayes and Lovelock, 2017). Water is \r\nhighly valued by Maori for its mauri or life force and for its intrinsic values and multiple uses (Harmsworth et al., 2016). Increasingly, \r\nthese diverse values are coming into conflict (Hopkins et al., 2015) due to increasing pressures from how land is used and managed and \r\nthe effects on water availability and quality. Such tensions will be further challenged as temperatures rise and extreme events intensify \r\nbeyond what has been experienced, thus stressing current adaptive capacities (high confidence) (Hughey and Becken, 2014; Cradock\u0002Henry and McKusker, 2015; Hopkins et al., 2015; MfE and Stats NZ, 2021) (11.2.2; 11.3.4)."


id: 17a06d15cbe9eb4cf56801dfddbe3b69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Irrigation has increasingly been used to enhance primary sector productivity and regional economic development (Srinivasan et  al., \r\n2017; Fielke and Srinivasan, 2018; MfE and Stats NZ, 2021) (Srinivasan et al., 2017; Fielke and Srinivasan, 2018; MfE and Stats NZ, \r\n2021). Pressure for long-term access to groundwater or large-scale water storage is increasing to ensure the ongoing viability of the \r\nprimary sector as the climate changes. While investment in irrigation infrastructure may reduce climate change impacts in the short term, \r\nmaladaptive outcomes cannot be ruled out longer term, which means that focusing attention now on adaptive and transformational \r\nmeasures can help increase climate resilience in areas exposed to increasing drought and climate extremes that disrupt production \r\n(medium confidence) (Abel et al., 2016; Cradock-Henry et al., 2019) (Yletyinen et al., 2019)."


id: a7fed0925d90652eb8dfd144de4c8a54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"areas in northern Australia and New Zealand, especially those with \r\nhigher proportions of Indigenous inhabitants, face severe housing, \r\nhealth, education, employment and services issues (Kotey, 2015), \r\nwhich increases their vulnerability to climate change."


id: 839313b1335a39712ed6c145b00d6e25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Critical infrastructure, cities and settlements are being increasingly \r\naffected by chronic and acute climate hazards, including heat, \r\ndrought, fire, pluvial and fluvial flooding and sea level rise (SLR), with \r\nconsequent effects on many sectors (high confidence) (Instone et al., \r\n2014; Loughnan et  al., 2015; Zografos et  al., 2016; Hughes et  al., \r\n2021). Risks and impacts vary with physical characteristics, location, \r\nconnectivity and socioeconomic status of settlements because of the \r\nways these influence exposure and vulnerability (high confidence) \r\n(Loughnan et al., 2013; MfE, 2020a)."


id: 308e48535c3b4f1146d4cea6673a2418
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Infrastructure within and between cities and settlements is critical for \r\nactivity across all sectors, with interdependencies increasing exposure \r\nto climate hazards (11.5.1). Previous planning horizons for existing \r\ninfrastructure are compromised by now having to accommodate \r\nongoing sea level rise (SLR), warming and increasing frequency of \r\nextreme rainfall and storm events (Climate Institute, 2012; MfE, 2017a). \r\nThere is almost no information on the costs and benefits of adapting \r\nvulnerable and exposed infrastructure in Australia or New Zealand. \r\nGiven the value of that infrastructure and the rising damage costs, \r\nthis represents a large knowledge gap that has led to an adaptation \r\ninvestment deficit."


id: c6aaef40d6b80144a536bfdc163f5864
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Weather-related disasters are causing significant disruption and \r\ndamage (Paulik et  al., 2019a; CSIRO, 2020; Paulik et  al., 2020). In \r\nAustralia, during 1987-2016, natural disasters caused an estimated \r\n971 deaths and 4370 injuries, 24,120 people were made homeless "


id: 8ef71aaf67ee18df0ea1f87a680b6c20
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"been disrupted by the erosion of natural, financial, built, human and \r\nsocial capital (De et al., 2016; Sheng and Xu, 2019). Delayed recovery \r\nfrom extreme climatic events has been compounded by long-term \r\ndisplacement, which in turn prolongs the impacts (Matthews et  al., \r\n2019). Severe droughts have contributed to poor health outcomes for \r\nrural communities, including extreme stress and suicide (Beautrais, \r\n2018; Perceval et  al., 2019). In Australia, competition among water \r\nusers has left some rural communities experiencing extreme water \r\nshortage and insecurity with associated health impacts (Wheeler et al., \r\n2018; Judd, 2019) (Box 11.3)."


id: 99ac3d613b322450b43412ae7e44bb7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"and about 9  million people were affected (Deloitte, 2017a). More \r\nthan 50% of these deaths and injuries came from heatwaves in \r\ncities and 22% from fires. During the 2007-2016 period, Australia \r\nnatural disaster costs averaged AUD$18.2 billion yr-1, with the largest \r\ncontributions from floods (AUD$8.8  billion), followed by cyclones \r\n(AUD$3.1 billion), hail (AUD$2.9 billion), storms (AUD$2.3 billion) and \r\nfires (AUD$1.1 billion) (Deloitte, 2017a). The Australian fires in 2019-\r\n2020 cost over AUD$8 billion, with devastating impacts on settlements \r\nand infrastructure (Box 11.1)"


id: ad66512369b0ba44b26de8fae621ba89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Sea level rise affects many interdependent systems in cities and \r\nsettlements, which increases the potential for compounding and \r\ncascading impacts (11.5.1). Seaports, airports, water treatment plants, \r\ndesalination plants, roads and railways are increasingly exposed to \r\nsea level rise (SLR) (very high confidence), impacting their longevity \r\nand levels of service and maintenance (high confidence) (McEvoy and \r\nMullett, 2014; Woodroffe et al., 2014; PCE, 2015; Ranasinghe, 2016; \r\nNewton et  al., 2018; Paulik et  al., 2020) (Box  11.6). Compounding \r\ncoastal hazards in New Zealand, such as elevated water tables \r\nassociated with rising sea level and intense rainfall (Morgan and \r\nWerner, 2015; McBride et  al., 2016; White et  al., 2017; Hughes \r\net  al., 2021), are exerting pressure on stormwater and wastewater \r\ninfrastructure and drinking water supply and quality (MfE, 2020a)."


id: ec69cfb20fa39f258fc2e517d0ea4cee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Changes in heat waves, droughts, fire weather, heavy rainfall, storms \r\nand sea level rise (SLR) are projected to increase negative impacts for \r\ncities, settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) (Table  11.3a, \r\nTable 11.3b; Box 11.1, Box 11.3, Box 11.4)."


id: ff193afa1ac73532561f53da5c884eb7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Increased floods, coastal inundation (assuming a sea level rise (SLR) \r\nof 1.6 m by 2100), wildfires, windstorms and heatwaves may cause \r\nproperty damage in Australia estimated at AUD$91 billion per year by \r\n2050 and AUD$117 billion per year by 2100 for RCP8.5, while damage\u0002related loss of property value is estimated at AUD$611 billion by 2050 \r\nand AUD$770 billion by 2100 for RCP8.5 (Steffen et al., 2019). For a \r\n1.0-m sea level rise (SLR), the value of exposed assets in New Zealand \r\nwould be NZD$25.5 billion (Box 11.6). For a 1.1-m sea level rise (SLR), \r\nthe value of exposed assets in Australia would be AUD$164-226 billion \r\n(Box  11.6). These exposure estimates exclude impacts on personal \r\nlivelihood, well-being and lifestyle."


id: a299660c4c17f4f4d601507048471a16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Extreme heat events exacerbate problems for vulnerable people and \r\ninfrastructure in urban Australia, where urban heat is superimposed \r\nupon regional warming, and there are adverse impacts for population \r\nand vegetation health, particularly for socioeconomically disadvantaged \r\ngroups (Tapper et al., 2014; Heaviside et al., 2017; Filho et al., 2018; \r\nGebert et  al., 2018; Rogers et  al., 2018; Longden, 2019; Marchionni \r\net al., 2019; Tapper, 2021) (11.3.6), energy demand, energy supply and \r\ninfrastructure (very high confidence) (Newton et al., 2018) (11.3.10). \r\nExtreme heat is increasingly threatening liveability in some rural areas \r\nin Australia (Turton, 2017), particularly given their reliance on outside \r\nphysical work and older populations. Settlement design and the level of \r\ngreening interact with climate change to influence local heating levels \r\n(Tapper et al., 2014; Wong et al., 2020; Tapper, 2021)."


id: 93c03c071c0d383099147c87e40aea2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Floods cause major damage. The floods of early 2019 in North Queensland \r\ncost AUD$5.68  billion (Deloitte, 2019), while Cyclone Yasi and the \r\nQueensland floods of 2011 cost A$6.9 billion (Deloitte, 2016). Floodplains \r\nin New Zealand have considerably higher overall national exposure of \r\nbuildings and population than coasts (Paulik et al., 2019a) (Box 11.4). The \r\ninsured losses from the 12 costliest floods in New Zealand from 2007 to \r\n2017 totalled NZD$471.56 million, of which NZD$140.48 million could \r\nbe attributed to climate change (Frame et al., 2020)."


id: f317e3d8e7e2f3d838f3306a22550b7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Climatic extremes are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities (high \r\nconfidence). Long supply chains, poorly maintained infrastructure, \r\nsocial disadvantage and poor health and lack of skilled workers \r\n(Eldridge and Beecham, 2018; Mathew et al., 2018; Rolfe et al., 2020) \r\nare contributing to serious stress and disruption (Smith and Lawrence, \r\n2014; Kiem et al., 2016). In many rural settlements, population ageing \r\nand reliance on an overstretched volunteer base for recovery from \r\nextreme events are increasing vulnerability to climate change (Astill \r\nand Miller, 2018; Davies et  al., 2018). Recovery from long, intense, \r\nmore frequent and compounding climatic events in rural areas has "


id: 1dc4ed35f34e7f06449c1188bdc5825c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Key infrastructure and services face major challenges. Structural metal \r\ncorrosion rates are projected to increase significantly at coastal locations \r\nbut decrease inland (Trivedi et al., 2014). A drier climate may decrease \r\nthe rate of deterioration of road pavements, but extreme rainfall events \r\nand heat pose a significant risk (Taylor and Philp, 2015), especially to \r\nunsealed roads in northern Australia (CoA, 2015). Critical infrastructure \r\non coasts is at risk from sea level rise (SLR) and storm surges (Box 11.6). \r\nFacilities such as hospitals face weather-related hazards exacerbated \r\nby climate change and not originally anticipated in building and "


id: 59595c52895b48254a75dd90fb2a7515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 11548
content:
"infrastructure design (Loosemore et al., 2011; Loosemore et al., 2014). \r\nBy 2050, increased risks are projected for the availability and quality of \r\npotable water supplies, delivery of wastewater and stormwater services \r\nto communities, transport systems, electricity infrastructure, operating \r\nmunicipal landfills and contaminated sites located near rivers and \r\nthe coast (Gilpin et al., 2020; MfE, 2020a; Hughes et al., 2021). These \r\nthen create risks to social cohesion and community well-being from \r\ndisplacement of individuals, families and communities, with inequitable \r\noutcomes for vulnerable groups (Boston and Lawrence, 2018)."


id: d867c853c89e88c7b9c002dd22810997
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In cities and settlements, climate adaptation is under way and is \r\nbeing led and facilitated by state and local government leadership \r\nand facilitation, particularly in Australia (high confidence) (Hintz \r\net al., 2018; Newton et al., 2018) (Table 11.7, Supplementary Material \r\nTable SM11.1a)."


id: b03d01d50f4f7eac948a9d735c54cbf0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Infrastructure service vulnerability in New Zealand is supported by \r\nnew institutional adaptations including the Infrastructure Commission \r\nto develop a 30-year national infrastructure strategy. The Climate \r\nChange Commission (Climate Change Commission, 2020) has issued \r\nsix principles for climate-relevant infrastructure investments and is \r\nmandated to monitor the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan \r\nbased on the first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (MfE, \r\n2020a). A National Disaster Resilience Strategy addresses integrated \r\nplanning for risk reduction and awareness-raising in New Zealand \r\n(Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2019)."


id: 93c499e00534de2edb2f9d15231d10a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Effective adaptations to urban heat include spatial planning, expanding \r\ntree canopy and greenery, shading, sprays and heat-resistant and \r\nenergy-efficient building design, including cool materials and reflective \r\nor green roofs (very high confidence) (Broadbent et al., 2018; Jacobs \r\net al., 2018b; Haddad et al., 2019; Haddad et al., 2020a; Yenneti et al., \r\n2020; Bartesaghi-Koc et al., 2021; Tapper, 2021). Reducing urban heat \r\nnot only benefits human health but reduces the demand for, and cost \r\nof, air conditioning (Haddad et al., 2020b) and the risk of electricity \r\nblackouts (11.3.10)."


id: 530db78d28b80f687615f2abb98f74c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 10528
content:
"Adaptation progress is being hampered by current urban \r\nredevelopment practice and statutory planning guidelines that are \r\nleading to the removal of critical urban green space (Newton and \r\nRogers, 2020). Reform of approaches to urban redevelopment would \r\nfacilitate adaptation (Newton and Rogers, 2020). Several cities in \r\nAustralia and New Zealand are part of the 100 Resilient Cities global \r\nnetwork, which helped facilitate the metropolitan Melbourne Urban \r\nForest Strategy across councils (Fastenrath et al., 2019; Coenen et al., \r\n2020), and in New Zealand, restoration of the urban forest in Hamilton \r\nis reducing heat stressors (Wallace and Clarkson, 2019). In peri-urban \r\nzones, adapting to fire risk is a contested issue, raising difficult trade\u0002offs between heat management, ecological values and fuel reduction \r\nin treed landscapes (Robinson et al., 2018)."


id: a5b20141a428e3b5c13af68fb616bc78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 23637
content:
"Successive inquiries and reviews highlight potential synergies between \r\ndisaster risk management and climate resilience (11.5.1) (Smith \r\nand Lawrence, 2018; Ruane, 2020). In Australia, there is a National \r\nDisaster Risk Reduction Framework (CoA, 2018b) and a National \r\nRecovery and Resilience Agency (CoA, 2021) that help underpin \r\nthe development of national support systems for rural and regional \r\nemergency management and associated volunteer sectors (McLennan \r\net al., 2016) and wildfire smoke impacts (CoA, 2020e). The National \r\nHeatwave Framework Working Group uses a Heatwave Forecast \r\nService, and heatwave early-warning and adaptation systems that \r\noperate in Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane have reduced \r\npotential death rates (Nitschke et al., 2016)."


id: e0a517b67ba9c8bc17bf55f972a498
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"The resilience of Australia's major cities to flooding and drought \r\nhas been advanced through a range of economic and physical \r\ninterventions. Water-sensitive urban design irrigates vegetation with \r\nharvested storm water that improves water security, flood risk, carbon \r\nsequestration, biodiversity and air and water quality and delivers \r\ncooling that can save human lives in heatwaves (Wong et al., 2020). \r\nStormwater harvesting is supported by some councils in New Zealand \r\nand can deliver recycled water for households (Attwater and Derry, \r\n2017), improving climate resilience and reducing water demand \r\n(White et al., 2017). Addressing infrastructure vulnerability is essential \r\ngiven the long lifetime of assets, criticality of services and high costs of \r\nmaintenance (Chester et al., 2020; Hughes et al., 2021)."


id: c0d347f0c6a5ac10ef37b806b6c71d46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 27903
content:
"Infrastructure planning is lagging behind international standards \r\nfor climate resilience evaluation and guidance for adaptation to \r\nclimate risk (high confidence) (CSIRO, 2020; Kool et al., 2020; Hughes \r\net  al., 2021). Some companies have examined their exposure to \r\nclimate risk and developed strategies to minimise their vulnerability \r\n(Climate Institute, 2012) (11.3.8). Climate risk assessments have been \r\nconducted for the electricity sector in both Australia and New Zealand \r\n(11.3.10). Climate change is considered in Australian infrastructure \r\nplans for national and regional water supply security, water for \r\nirrigated agriculture, a coastal hazards adaptation strategy and the \r\nTanami Road upgrade (Infrastructure Australia, 2016; Infrastructure \r\nAustralia, 2019; Infrastructure Australia, 2021)"


id: 98b11640dabcc034b05baa55e8e9c40b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"(a) Water supply safety and security and exposure of buildings have been identified as the most significant risks for New Zealand in terms of urgency and consequence (MfE, 2020a). \r\nNo such ranking of risk has been done for Australia."


id: 26ccc221a7c27e6e6c9d29f267a9e26e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3497
content:
"Council (CoA, 2015), the Green Building Council of Australia Green \r\nStar Programme (GBCA, 2020), the Water Services Association of \r\nAustralia, Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines (WSAA, 2016) and \r\nthe Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council Built Environment \r\nAdaptation Framework (ASBEC, 2012). The Infrastructure Sustainability \r\nRating Scheme measures the social, environmental, governance and \r\ncultural outcomes delivered by more than AUD$160  billion worth of \r\ninfrastructure, and it is projected to deliver a cost-benefit ratio of 1:1.6 \r\nto 1:2.4 during the period 2020-2040 (RPS, 2020). There is scope for \r\nengagement of industry in transitioning to a low-carbon green economy \r\nthat is adapted to climate change, but less certainty on how to develop \r\nappropriate business cases (Newton and Newman, 2015)."


id: 438181bb5fa18b40a56badc852a23ced
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"There are tensions between settlement-scale adaptation options, such \r\nas managed retreat, that focus on the long term and people's values, \r\nplace attachments, needs and capacities (Gorddard et al., 2016; Fatoric \r\net  al., 2017; Graham et  al., 2018; O'Donnell, 2019; Norman et  al., \r\n2021). Tensions also exist between climate change adaptation and "


id: 3c3513067b1ca053ea73800aa3f671e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Many of the region's cities and settlements, cultural sites and place attachments are situated around harbours, estuaries and lowland rivers \r\n(Black, 2010; PCE, 2015; Australia SoE, 2016; Rouse et al., 2017; Hanslow et al., 2018; Birkett-Rees et al., 2020) exposed to ongoing relative sea \r\nlevel rise (RSLR). RSLR includes regional variability in oceanic conditions (Zhang et al., 2017) and vertical land movement along New Zealand's \r\ntectonically dynamic coasts (Levy et al., 2020) and some Australian hotspots for subsidence (Denys et al., 2020; King et al., 2020; Watson, 2020)."


id: 48e31b5631912bf9ccd24b7a6e58b596
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 8852
content:
"Coastal shoreline position is driven by a complex combination of natural drivers, past and present human interventions, climate variability \r\n(Bryan et al., 2008; Helman and Tomlinson, 2018; Allis and Hicks, 2019) and variation in sediment flux (Blue and Kench, 2017; Ford and \r\nDickson, 2018). RSLR, to date, is a secondary factor influencing shoreline stability (medium confidence), and in Australia no definitive SLR \r\nsignature is yet observed in shoreline recession, nor is one documented in New Zealand, due to variability in shoreline position responding \r\nto storms and seasonal, annual and decadal climate drivers (Australian Government, 2009; McInnes et al., 2016; Sharples et al., 2020)."


id: 7e51cde8224617006bb76ea06f1844d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"The primary impacts of rising mean sea level (Table Box 11.6.1) are being compounded by climate-related changes in waves, storm \r\nsurge, rising water tables, river flows and alterations in sediment delivery to the coast (medium confidence). The net effect is projected \r\nto increase erosion on sedimentary coastlines and flooding in low-lying coastal areas (McInnes et al., 2016; MfE, 2017a; Hanslow et al., \r\n2018; Wu et al., 2018). Waves are projected to be higher in southern Australasia and lower elsewhere (Morim et al., 2019) and storm \r\nsurge slightly higher in the south, slightly lower further north in New Zealand (Cagigal et al., 2019) and small robust declines in southern \r\nAustralia, with potentially larger changes in the Gulf of Carpentaria (Colberg et al., 2019)."


id: a8baaa832e6d9973de97402f16b06b39
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content:
"The cumulative direct and residual risk from RSLR and associated impacts are projected to continue for centuries, necessitating ongoing \r\nadaptive decisions for exposed coastal communities and assets (high confidence) (MfE, 2017c; Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Tonmoy et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 2b2be2efd71309845a461c549e44c59f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Prevailing decision-making assumes shorelines can continue to be maintained and protected from extreme storms, flooding and erosion, \r\neven with RSLR (Lawrence et al., 2019a). Rapid coastal development has increased exposure of coastal communities and infrastructure \r\n(high confidence) (Helman and Tomlinson, 2018; Paulik et al., 2020), reinforcing perceptions of safety (Gibbs, 2015; Lawrence et al., 2015) \r\nand creating barriers to retreat and nature-based adaptations (very high confidence) (Schumacher, 2020). The efficacy and increasing costs \r\nof protection and accommodation risk reduction approaches and rebuilding after extreme events have been questioned and have limits \r\n(PCE, 2015; MfE, 2017a; Harvey, 2019; LGNZ, 2019; Paulik et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., 2021). Future shoreline erosion is often signalled \r\nusing defined coastal setback lines(s) and using probabilistic approaches to signal uncertainty (Ramsay et al., 2012; Ranasinghe, 2016)."


id: e72677cf56582674386e3c8abff56e30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Table  Box  11.6.2 |   Observed relative SLR (variance-weighted average) with uncertainty range (standard deviation) and projected impacts on infrastructure and \r\npopulation of 1.1 m in Australia and 1 m in New Zealand. SLR projections for 2050 and 2090 are given in Table 11.3a and Table 11.3b."


id: db1b67d0c11481bb66096d4d8043fee0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Flooding from high spring ('king') tides or storm tides during extreme weather events are raising public awareness of SLR (Green Cross \r\nAustralia, 2012), including through media coverage (Priestley et al., 2021). The use of adaptive decision tools (11.7.3.1; Table 11.17) is \r\nincreasing the understanding of changing coastal risk (Bendall, 2018; Lawrence et al., 2019b; Palutikof et al., 2019b) and how dynamic \r\nadaptive pathways and monitoring of them can aid implementation (Stephens et  al., 2018; Lawrence et  al., 2020b). Collaborative \r\ngovernance between local governments and their communities, including with Maori tribal organisations, is emerging in New Zealand \r\n(OECD, 2019b) assisted by national direction (DoC NZ, 2010) and guidance on adaptive planning (Table 11.15b). This shift from reactive \r\nto pre-emptive planning is better suited to ongoing RSLR (Lawrence et al., 2020b)."


id: 7d5484ce8c04cb463e436e3e0b8a4492
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"event. This is not an isolated finding: increases in paediatric hospital \r\nadmissions are seen across New Zealand two days after heavy rainfall \r\nevents (Lai et al., 2020)."


id: 358f67b6eac70610415d0bfb86080a63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 5834
content:
"Climate change is projected to have detrimental effects on human \r\nhealth due to heat stress, changing rainfall patterns including floods \r\nand drought climate-sensitive air pollution (including that caused \r\nby wildfires) (high confidence) and vector-borne diseases (medium \r\nconfidence). Vulnerability to detrimental effects of climate change will \r\nvary with socioeconomic conditions (high confidence)."


id: 56c63efb1b75cd65d6e9dadfc8daa5d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"The greatest number of people affected by compounding effects of \r\nheat, wildfires and poor air quality will be in urban and peri-urban \r\nareas of Australia. By 2100 the proportion of all deaths attributable \r\nto heat in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane may rise from about 0.5% \r\nto 0.8% (under RCP 2.6), or 3.2% (under RCP 8.5) (Gasparrini et al., \r\n2017). Heatwave related excess deaths in Melbourne, Sydney and \r\nBrisbane are projected to increase to 300/year (RCP2.6) or 600/year \r\n(RCP8.5) during 2031-2080 relative to 142/year during 1971-2020, \r\nassuming no adaptation and high population growth (Guo et  al., \r\n2018). High temperatures amplify the risks due to local air pollution: \r\nwithout adaptation, ozone-related deaths in Sydney may increase by \r\n50-60/year by 2070 (Physick et al., 2014)."


id: 86d565b1a0f4be98495e76d3ababaccc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Unless there is more effective control of nutrient runoff, bacterial \r\ncontamination of drinking water supplies is projected to increase due \r\nto more intense rainfall events, exacerbating risks to human health \r\n(Gilpin et  al., 2020; Lai et  al., 2020), and higher temperatures will \r\nincrease freshwater toxic blooms (Hamilton et al., 2016)."


id: 38c6d7c5fb33c011ca6e6a3c33b34d98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"In general, the area of Australia suitable for the transmission of dengue\r\nis projected to increase (Zhang and Beggs, 2018; Messina et al., 2019), \r\nbut estimates of local disease risk vary considerably according to \r\nclimate change scenario and socioeconomic pathways (Williams \r\net  al., 2016). The spread of Wolbachia among Aedes mosquitoes in \r\nnorthern Australia has already reduced dengue transmission and may \r\ndecrease the influence of climate in the future (Ryan et al., 2019). In \r\nNew Zealand, the risk of dengue remains low for the remainder of this \r\ncentury (Messina et al., 2019). Higher temperatures and more intense \r\nrainfall may also increase pollen production and the risk of allergic \r\nillness throughout the region (Haberle et al., 2014)."


id: dcbd3da90696cf2c83e8def47b710f49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Dengue fever remains a threat in northern Australia and variations in \r\nrainfall and temperature are related to disease outbreaks and patterns \r\nof spread, although most outbreaks are sparked by travellers bringing \r\nthe virus into the country (Bannister-Tyrrell et al., 2013; Hall et al., 2021). \r\nCases of dengue fever and other arboviral diseases have been increasing \r\namong recent arrivals to New Zealand from overseas, but to date there \r\nhave been no reports of local transmission (Ammar et al., 2021)."


id: 652e1aff5efa4f4cf66d575b3ec09437
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Strengthening basic public health services can rapidly reduce \r\nvulnerability to death and ill-health caused by climate change; however, \r\nthis opportunity is often missed (very high confidence). The 2020 New \r\nZealand Health and Disability System Review pointed to shortcomings \r\nin leadership and governance, structures that embed health inequity, \r\nlack of transparency in planning and reporting and underinvestment \r\nin public health personnel and systems (HDSR, 2020). An Australian \r\nstudy found that without deliberate planning the health system \r\n'would only be able to deal with climate change in an expensive, ad \r\nhoc crisis management manner' (Burton, 2014). In both Australia and \r\nNew Zealand the COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted weaknesses "


id: cbf19088c5d92bc7f680b9af7620eb07
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"In 2016 in New Zealand, it is estimated 6000 to 8000 people became \r\nill due to contamination of the Havelock North water supply with the \r\nbacteria Campylobacter (Gilpin et al., 2020). The infection was traced \r\nto sheep faeces washed into the underground aquifer that feeds the \r\ntown's (untreated) water supply after an extraordinarily heavy rainfall "


id: e6fd17b9614d924f0d6c30025daa49c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"in information systems, primary care for marginalised groups and \r\nintersectoral planning (Salvador-Carulla et  al., 2020; Skegg and Hill, \r\n2021): all these deficiencies are relevant to climate adaptation."


id: ce1e5677d113e8858cf0c15501569aa8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 29942
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"Heatwave responses, from public education to formal heat-warning \r\nsystems, are the best-developed element of adaptation planning for \r\nhealth in Australia, but many metropolitan centres are still not covered \r\n(high confidence) (Nicholls et  al., 2016; Nitschke et  al., 2016). Air \r\nconditioning (AC) in Australian homes reduces mortality in heatwaves \r\nby up to 80% (Broome and Smith, 2012), but heavy reliance on AC \r\ncarries risks. It is estimated that a power outage on the third day \r\nof extreme heatwaves would result in an additional 10-21 deaths \r\nin Adelaide, 24-47 in Melbourne and 7-13 in Brisbane (Nairn and \r\nWilliams, 2019). Multiple interventions at the landscape, building and \r\nindividual scale are available to reduce the negative health effects of \r\nextreme heat (Jay et al., 2021)."


id: 9eec8f7b6f3553f917b18c0a1705f5a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Underlying health and economic trends affect the vulnerability of the \r\npopulation to extreme weather (high confidence). Poor housing quality \r\nis a risk factor for climate-related health threats (Alam et al., 2016). \r\nHomeless people lack access to temperature-controlled or structurally \r\nsafe housing and often are excluded  from disaster preparation and \r\nresponses (Every, 2016). These inequalities are reversible. For example, \r\na government partnership with social housing providers in Australia \r\nimproved the thermal performance of housing for low-income tenants \r\n(Barnett et al., 2013). A postcode-level analysis of the vulnerability of \r\nurban populations to extreme heat in Australian capital cities (Loughnan \r\net  al., 2013) led to the development of an interactive website for \r\npurposes of planning and emergency preparedness (Figure 11.5) as well "


id: 14b428a8d3742ef4c4e1592131c23ffa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Figure 11.5 |  Housing and socioeconomic disadvantage are correlated with the use of emergency services on hot days (rho = 0.55, p<0.01). The spatial \r\ndistribution of (A) a community vulnerability index (VI) (PCA) by deciles and (B) ambulance call-outs on days above the daily mean of 34degC, in Brisbane, Australia.  Ambulance \r\ncall-out data are expressed as deciles based on per-capita calls during 2003-2011 (Loughnan et al., 2013)"


id: 21271aad0413cf50f667f61fa87a3e56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"bridges have closed popular destinations, including the Hooker Glacier \r\nand the popular Routeburn and Heaphy Tracks during heavy rainfall \r\nevents (Christie et al., 2020). Climate-driven damage is motivating 'last \r\nchance' tourism to see key natural heritage and outdoor attractions, \r\nfor example, GBR (Piggott-McKellar and McNamara, 2016) and Franz \r\nJosef and Fox Glaciers (Stewart et al., 2016)."


id: 5e5b2914302db5ce7e40123f9d2056c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Heat extremes receive most policy attention, but the numbers of \r\ndeaths are less than those resulting from more frequent exposures to \r\nmoderately high temperatures (Longden, 2019). Melbourne, with its \r\nUrban Forest Strategy, provides a case study in long-term planning \r\nfor cooler cities (Gulsrud et al., 2018). Australian workers' perceptions \r\nof heat and responses to high temperatures show that heat policies \r\non their own are insufficient for full protection; workers also require \r\nknowledge and agency to slow down or take breaks on their own \r\ninitiative (Singh et al., 2015; Lao et al., 2016)."


id: 841c6d1d9c002472cdd87060041c5edb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"The first national climate change risk assessment in New Zealand (MfE, \r\n2020a) highlighted the risk to potable water supplies. An inquiry into the \r\nHavelock North outbreak recommended that all registered drinking water \r\nsupplies (which supply about 80% of the national population) in New \r\nZealand should be disinfected and have stronger oversight by a national \r\nregulatory body (Government Inquiry into Havelock North Drinking \r\nWater, 2017). The use of local and Indigenous knowledge strengthens \r\ninterventions to protect water supplies to remote settlements that may \r\nbe affected by climatic changes (Henwood et al., 2019)."


id: 4b676c6c49fa2059337fe94798c51061
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Adaptation requires better protection of health facilities and supply \r\nchains, but hospital managers seldom have capacity to invest in long\u0002term improvements in infrastructure (Loosemore et al., 2014). However, \r\nhealth services in the region are required to prepare disaster plans: these \r\ncould be expanded to explicitly cover health adaptation and local threats \r\nfrom climate change, including flooding events (Rychetnik et al., 2019)."


id: f00f8a59c6609dc6f29c8ccde3e74586
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Glacier tourism, a multi-million-dollar industry in New Zealand, \r\nis potentially under threat because glacier volumes are projected \r\nto decrease (very high confidence) (Purdie, 2013). Glacier volume \r\nreductions of 50-92% by 2099 relative to the present reflect the large \r\nrange of temperature projections between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Under \r\nRCP2.6 at 2099, the glaciers retain a similar configuration to present, \r\nalthough clean-ice glaciers will retreat significantly. For RCP4.5, \r\nRCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the clean-ice glaciers will retreat to become small \r\nremnants in the high mountains (Anderson et al. 2021)."


id: 57b9cfb33095eef2739ca993f1524218
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Tourism is a major economic driver in the region, accounting for 3% \r\n(Australia) and 6% (New Zealand) of GDP pre-COVID-19 (WTTC, 2018). \r\nClimate change is having significant impacts on tourism due to the \r\nheavy reliance of the sector on natural heritage and outdoor attractions \r\n(11.3.1; Box 11.2). Furthermore, because Australia and New Zealand \r\nare both long-haul destinations, a global increase in 'flygskam' (flight \r\nshame) will likely impact travel patterns (Becken et al., 2021)."


id: 7bac02a65e1f908635409730caca90d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Snow skiing faces significant challenges from climate change (high \r\nconfidence). In Australia, the annual maximum snow depth is estimated \r\nto decrease from current levels by 15% (2030) and 60% by 2070 (SRES \r\nA2) (Di Luca et al., 2018). By 2070-2099, relative to 2000-2010, the \r\nlength of the Victorian ski season is projected to contract by 65-90% \r\nunder RCP8.5 (Harris et al., 2016). The New Zealand tourism destination \r\nof Queenstown is expected to experience declining snowfall, increased \r\nwind and more severe weather events (Becken and Wilson, 2016). Ski \r\ntourism stakeholders have been responding to longer-term climate \r\nrisks with an increase in snow-making machines in New Zealand since \r\n2013 (Hopkins, 2015) and in Australia (Harris et al., 2016)."


id: 4bc504872571fe75ab7c82a12f6b9acb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Current snow-making technologies are expected to sustain the ski \r\nindustry until mid-century. However, with warmer winter temperatures \r\nand declining water availability, snow-making is projected to decrease \r\nto half at most resorts by 2030 (Harris et al., 2016). New Zealand's ski \r\nindustry may benefit from Australian skiers visiting New Zealand due \r\nto lower relative vulnerability (Hopkins, 2015). However, tourists may \r\nsubstitute destinations or ski less in the absence of snow (medium "


id: c8f1406ea49d99eca11e48443d163b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"disaster recovery efforts (Lucas and Booth, 2020). In Australia, those \r\nin high-risk areas minimise house and contents insurance for financial \r\nreasons (Booth and Harwood, 2016; Osbaldison et al., 2019; Actuaries \r\nInstitute, 2020). Insurance premiums in northern Australia are almost \r\ndouble those in the rest of Australia, and rising, mainly due to cyclone \r\ndamage (ACCC, 2020)."


id: 8c229e7edd6558b96a521e0ebbd5b886
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"With the exception of the ski industry (Becken, 2013; Hopkins, 2015), \r\ntourism stakeholders generally focus on coping with short-term weather \r\nevents, rather than longer-term climate risks, but they do exhibit high \r\nadaptive capacity by diversifying their activities (Stewart et al., 2016). \r\nPost-COVID-19 pandemic economics and recovery policies challenge \r\nthis sector's prospects, and the combination of COVID-19 and climate \r\nchange (e.g., fires, floods) has also highlighted the need for the tourism \r\nsector to be able to respond to multiple, overlapping crises."


id: 3871b36c1e3d5ea92ed4bae1b2c40dcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"There is limited evidence that research into the impact of climate \r\nchange on tourism in Australia and New Zealand is translating \r\ninto policy or action (Moyle et al., 2017). New Zealand government \r\ntourism sector strategies acknowledge this and the need for greater \r\nunderstanding of climate change for the sector (TIA, 2019) but do not \r\noffer solutions (MBIE, 2019b; MfE, 2020a). The COVID-19 pandemic \r\nand the global pause of international travel offer an opportunity to \r\npotentially 'reset' tourism to account for the impacts of climate change \r\n(Prideaux et al., 2020)."


id: 24632879825cf7ca21845a32cf5c36b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3171
content:
"The finance sector has significant exposure to climate variability and \r\nextreme events (high confidence)."


id: 4d67ea7241d1d862e3a385d5718d419d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Some homes in the highest-risk areas tend to be in lower socioeconomic \r\ngroups that may not buy insurance (Actuaries Institute, 2020). For \r\nexample, a quarter of residents that experienced loss or damage in \r\nthe 2019 Townsville floods did not have insurance (ACCC, 2020). \r\nUnderinsurance reduces people's capacity to recover from adverse \r\nevents, while over-reliance on private insurance undermines collective "


id: 9d07e851fe35deacda862daf9cb9737d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22249
content:
"Banks and insurers are beginning to undertake climate risk analyses \r\n(CRO Forum, 2019; Bruyere et  al., 2020) and disclose their risks \r\n(Paddam and Wong, 2017; ANZ, 2018; CBA, 2018). For example, the \r\nagricultural banking sector has analysed climate risk and embedded \r\nclimate adaptation financing into its risk scoring and lending practices "


id: c49b6e3883b6d0f5302b7f1e9011ea50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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vector_id: 28504
content:
"2016; Becker et al., 2018). Some companies are spatially diversifying \r\nand relocating (Hodgkinson et al., 2014). Others are replacing workers \r\nwith automation and remote operations (Halteh et al., 2018; Keenan \r\net al., 2019)."


id: e56849983cd432cf135d1cc51a6f84c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"(CBA, 2019). However, the overall number of disclosures continues \r\nto lag expectations, suggesting the need for mandatory climate risk \r\ndisclosure in Australia (IGCC, 2021a)."


id: 66af2617ec15f011ce00c193daba1453
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13748
content:
"Climate adaptation finance is not evident (medium confidence). There \r\nis an adaptation finance gap (Mortimer et al. 2020). Private sector \r\ninitiatives are beginning to emerge through large scale projects or \r\npublic-private partnerships, such as the Queensland Betterment \r\nFund (Banhalmi-Zakar et al., 2016; Ware and Banhalmi-Zakar, 2020). \r\nAddressing investor pressure (IGCC, 2017) could increase investment in \r\nadaptation. However, ongoing policy uncertainty in Australia continues \r\nto be the key barrier to allocating additional capital to invest in climate \r\nsolutions for 70% of investors (IGCC, 2021a)."


id: c23974b5121847556e2ed2086c346c54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28141
content:
"Australia's energy generation is a mix of coal (56%), gas (23%) and \r\nrenewables (21%) (DISER, 2020), with ageing coal-fired infrastructure \r\nbeing replaced by a growing proportion of renewable and distributed \r\nenergy resources (AEMO, 2018). In New Zealand, 60% of energy \r\ngeneration comes from hydro-electricity and 15% from geothermal \r\n(MBIE, 2021), with coal (2%) and gas (13%) generation capacity to \r\nbe retired, and total renewable energy to increase from 82% in 2017 \r\nto around 95% by 2050, mostly through wind generation (MBIE, \r\n2019a)."


id: 294dca4733b74c92c4201ea68b62293
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3935
content:
"Many mines are exposed and sensitive to climate extremes (high \r\nconfidence), but there is little available research on climate change \r\nimpacts on them (Odell et al., 2018). Most Australian mines face higher \r\ntemperatures, cyclones, erosion and landslides and hazards such as sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) and storms across their supply chains, including ports \r\n(Cahoon et al., 2016). Impacts include operational disruptions such as \r\nacute drainage problems (Loechel and Hodgkinson, 2014) and heat\u0002induced illness, irritation and absenteeism among workers (McTernan \r\net al., 2016), lost revenue and increased costs (Pizarro et al., 2017)."


id: c6cdd380574cf79b7e6d8236145b9bd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28852
content:
"Risks for the energy sector are projected to increase with climate change \r\n(medium confidence). Projected increases in the frequency and intensity \r\nof heatwaves, fires, droughts and wind-storms would increase risks for \r\nenergy supply and demand (AEMO, 2020b; ESCI, 2021). Households \r\nare unevenly vulnerable to energy sector risks due to varying housing \r\nquality and health dependencies (11.3.6). In New Zealand, a warmer \r\nclimate and increasing energy efficiency is projected to marginally \r\nreduce annual average peak electricity heating demand (Stroombergen \r\net al., 2006; MBIE, 2019a). Winter and spring inflows to main hydro \r\nlakes are projected to increase 5-10% and may reduce hydroelectric "


id: 66ae929c0c85c6c3a35e49850773225d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Damage and disruption from climate impacts can cost operators \r\nbillions of dollars (Cahoon et al., 2016). Climatic extremes increase the \r\nrisk and impact of spillages along transportation routes (Grech et al., \r\n2016), exacerbate mining's effects on hydrology, ecosystems and air \r\nquality (Phillips, 2016; Ali et al., 2018), increase contamination risks \r\n(Metcalfe and Bui, 2016) and disrupt and slow mine site rehabilitation \r\n(Wardell-Johnson et al., 2015; Hancock et al., 2017). Adaptations such \r\nas improved water management are emerging slowly (Gasbarro et al., "


id: 46906acbae426d304075e4d1fe3f27f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8484
content:
"energy vulnerability (McKerchar and Mullan, 2004; Poyck et al., 2011; \r\nStevenson et al., 2018). However, major electricity supply disruptions \r\nare projected to increase as dependence on electricity grows from 25% \r\nof total energy in 2016 to 58% in 2050 (Transpower, 2020)."


id: 99c2a3e8cc1c0300b2e148fb086a3e9f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Options to manage risks include adaptation of energy markets, \r\nintegrated planning, improved asset design standards, smart\u0002grid technologies, energy generation diversification, distributed \r\ngeneration (e.g., roof-top solar, microgrids), energy efficiency, demand \r\nmanagement, pumped hydro storage, battery storage and improved \r\ncapacity to respond to supply deficits and balance variable energy \r\nresources across the network (Table  11.8) (high confidence). With \r\nincreasing electrification, diversification and resilience can contribute \r\nto security of supply as fossil fuels are retired from the energy mix \r\n(AEMO, 2020b). In Australia, the AEMO (2020) Integrated System Plan \r\nhas evaluated various options, costs and benefits. Risks associated "


id: 9173aa24e8481a2e85e1b2b7dbf0ac4e
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"In Australia, the total heating and cooling energy demand of 5-star \r\nenergy-rated houses is projected to change by 2100 (Wang et  al., \r\n2010). At 2degC global warming, the estimated change in demand is \r\n-27% in Hobart, -21% in Melbourne, +61% in Darwin, +67% in Alice \r\nSprings and +112% in Sydney. For a 4degC global warming, the changes \r\nare -48%, -14%, +135%, +213% and +350% respectively."


id: d1ff93d11f31bafd1cdedb9fb030e34e
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"making that helps address the enduring legacy of colonisation through \r\nbuilding opportunities based on Indigenous governance regimes, \r\ncultural practices to care for land and water and intergenerational \r\nperspectives (very high confidence) (Nursey-Bray et al., 2019; Petzold \r\net al., 2020) (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18)."


id: 90d9aeefd1986e26a3c0cff0ef505e94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"with an increasing reliance on weather-dependent renewable energy \r\n(e.g., solar, wind, hydro) (ESCI, 2021) can be managed through strong \r\nlong-distance interconnection via high-voltage powerlines and storage \r\n(Blakers et al., 2017; Blakers et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2021). However, \r\nimplementation of adaptation options remains inadequate (Gasbarro \r\net al., 2016)."


id: abaeb4de439c617127045b9007d6d76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"The highly diverse Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples of \r\nAustralia have survived and adapted to climate changes such as \r\nsea level rise (SLR) and extreme rainfall variability during the late \r\nPleistocene era, through intimate place-based Indigenous knowledge \r\nin practice and while losing traditional land and sea country \r\nownership (Liedloff et al., 2013) (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter \r\n18) including during the Late Pleistocene era (Golding and Campbell, \r\n2009; Nunn and Reid, 2016). They belong to the world's oldest \r\nliving cultures, continually resident in their own ancestral lands, or \r\n'country', for over 65,000 years (Kingsley et al., 2013; Marmion et al., \r\n2014; Nagle et al., 2017; Tobler et al., 2017; Nursey-Bray and Palmer, \r\n2018). The majority of the Australian Indigenous Peoples live in urban \r\nareas in southern and eastern Australia, but are the predominant \r\npopulation in remote areas."


id: 721147bad0b918ef4e76f685d4f18ff1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Detection and attribution of observed climate trends and events is called \r\n'climate attribution'. This has been assessed by IPCC WGI (Gutierrez \r\net  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021) and \r\nsummarised in Chapter 16. Trends that have been formally attributed in \r\npart to anthropogenic climate change include regional warming trends \r\nand sea level rise (SLR), decreasing rainfall and increasing fire risk in \r\nsouthern Australia. Events include extreme rainfall in New Zealand \r\nduring 2007-2017, the 2007/2008 and 2012/2013 droughts in New \r\nZealand, high temperatures in Australia during 2013-2020, the 2016 \r\nnorthern Australian marine heatwave, the 2016/2017 and 2017/18 \r\nTasman Sea marine heatwaves and 2019/2020 fires in Australia."


id: 3621216c61f124fbc7934ef8130ea1a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Detection and attribution of climate impacts on natural and human \r\nsystems is called 'impact attribution'. This often involves a two-step \r\napproach (joint attribution) that links climate attribution to observed \r\nimpacts. Impact attribution is complicated by confounding factors, for \r\nexample, changes in exposure arising from population growth, urban \r\ndevelopment and underlying vulnerabilities."


id: 538fbecb6b5c7438fdcfb8fa1692fe7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Impact attribution is considered in Sections  11.3.1-11.3.10 and \r\nsummarised in Table  11.9. More literature is available for natural \r\nsystems than human systems, which represents a knowledge gap rather \r\nthan an absence of impacts that are attributable to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change. Fundamental shifts in the structure and composition of \r\nsome ecosystems are partly due to anthropogenic climate change (high \r\nconfidence). In human systems, the costs of droughts and floods in New \r\nZealand, and heat-related mortality and fire damage in Australia, are \r\npartly attributed to anthropogenic climate change (medium confidence)."


id: a178ce15ec65c94ce28279c7b5936994
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Due to ongoing impacts of colonisation, Aboriginal and Torres Strait \r\nIslander Peoples have, on average, lower income, poorer nutrition, lower \r\nschool outcomes and employment opportunities, higher incarceration \r\nand higher levels of removal of children than non-Indigenous \r\nAustralians, represented in high comorbidities of chronic diseases and \r\nmental health impacts (Marmot, 2011; Green and Minchin, 2014; AIHW, \r\n2015). This relative poverty can reduce climate-adaptive capacities \r\nwhile exacerbating climate change vulnerabilities (Nursey-Bray and \r\nPalmer, 2018). In remote country, this can combine with lack of security \r\nfor food and water, non-resilient housing and extreme weather events, \r\ncontributing to migration off traditional country and into towns and \r\ncities--with flow-on social impacts such as homelessness, dislocation \r\nfrom community and family and disconnection from country and \r\nspirituality (Mosby, 2012; Brand et al., 2016)."


id: 41b795e350ad632d7f0554d5313d3a5d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Indigenous perspectives of well-being embrace physical, social, \r\nemotional and cultural domains, collectiveness and reciprocity and, \r\nmore fundamentally, connections between all elements across past, \r\npresent and future generations (Australia. NAHS Working Party, 1989; \r\nMfE, 2020a). Changing climate conditions are expected to exacerbate \r\nmany of the social, economic and health inequalities faced by Aboriginal \r\nand Torres Strait Islander Peoples in Australia and Maori in New Zealand \r\n(high confidence) (Bennett et  al., 2014; Hopkins et  al., 2015; AIHW, \r\n2016; Lyons et al., 2019). As a consequence, effective policy responses \r\nare those that take advantage of the interlinkages and dependencies \r\nbetween mitigation, adaptation and Indigenous Peoples' well-being \r\n(Jones, 2019) and those that address the transformative change \r\nneeded from colonial legacies (high confidence) (Hill et al., 2020). There \r\nis a central role for Indigenous Peoples in climate change decision\u0002"


id: 189b781a35b86b4ab307936c3a15ece0
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"Table 11.10 |  Climate-related impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, country and cultures."


id: 274bae75c3ff45593accb4d1a63ca8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Maori society faces diverse impacts, risks and opportunities from \r\nclimate change (Table  11.12). Studies exploring climate change \r\nimpacts, scenarios, policy implications, adaptation options and tools \r\nfor Maori society have increased substantially (e.g., (King et al., 2012; \r\nBargh et al., 2014; Jones et al., 2014; Bryant et al., 2017; Awatere et al., \r\n2018; Colliar and Blackett, 2018). Maori priorities surrounding climate \r\nchange risks and natural resource management have been articulated \r\nin planning documents by many Maori kin groups (e.g., (Ngati Tahu\u0002Ngati Whaoa Runanga Trust, 2013; Raukawa Settlement Trust, 2015; \r\nNgai-Tahu, 2018; Te Urunga Kea - Te Arawa Climate Change Working \r\nGroup, 2021), reflecting the importance of reducing vulnerability and \r\nenhancing resilience to climate impacts and risks through adaptation \r\nand mitigation."


id: 4b509741579148611da98017650951c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Maori have long-term interests in land and water and are heavily \r\ninvested in climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forestry, fishing, \r\ntourism and renewable energy) (King et  al., 2010). Large proportions \r\nof collectively owned land already suffer from high rates of erosion \r\n(Warmenhoven et al., 2014; Awatere et al., 2018), which are projected \r\nto be exacerbated by climate-change-induced extreme rainfalls (high \r\nconfidence) (RSNZ, 2016; Awatere et  al., 2018). Changing drought "


id: 8af329df9c63970fce9c700b53f168bd
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"Table 11.11 |  Examples of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples' practices of adaptation to a changing climate"


id: 5d88b513dd177168a72a38be444a87bd
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"cultural identity and well-being (medium confidence) (Jones et  al., \r\n2014; Bond et  al., 2019). Social-cultural networks and conventions \r\nthat promote collective action and mutual support are central features \r\nof many Maori communities, and these practices are invaluable for \r\ninitiating responses to, and facilitating recovery from, climate stresses \r\nand extreme events (King et  al., 2011; Hopkins et  al., 2015). Maori \r\ntribal organisations have a critical role in defining climate risks and \r\npolicy responses (Bargh et al., 2014; Parsons et al., 2019), as well as \r\nentering into strategic partnerships with business, science, research \r\nand government to address these risks (high confidence) (Manning \r\net al., 2014; Beall and Brocklesby, 2017; CCATWG, 2017)."


id: 6afefa43352220136be5df6fa28d5754
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"occurrence, particularly across eastern and northern New Zealand, \r\nis also projected to affect primary sector operations and production \r\n(medium confidence) (King et  al., 2010; Smith et  al., 2017; Awatere \r\net al., 2018). Further, many Maori-owned lands and cultural assets, such \r\nas marae and urupa, are located on coastal lowlands vulnerable to sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) impacts (high confidence) (Manning et al., 2014; Hardy \r\net al., 2019). Maori tribal investment in fisheries and aquaculture faces \r\nsubstantial risks from changes in ocean temperature and acidification \r\nand the downstream impacts on species distribution, productivity and \r\nyields (medium confidence) (Law et al., 2016). A clearer understanding of \r\nclimate change risks and the implications for sustainable outcomes can \r\nenable more informed decisions by tribal organisations and governance \r\ngroups."


id: dd9d765cc6f2513a69c98987f1d450f0
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"More integrated assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation \r\nand socioeconomic risk for different Maori groups and communities, \r\nin the context of multiple stresses, inequities and different ways of \r\nknowing and being (King et al., 2013; Schneider et al., 2017; Henwood \r\net al., 2019), would assist those striving to evaluate impacts and risks \r\nand how to integrate these assessments into adaptation plans (high \r\nconfidence). Better understanding of the social, cultural and fiscal \r\nimplications of sea level rise (SLR) is urgent (PCE, 2015; Rouse et al., \r\n2017; Colliar and Blackett, 2018), including what duties local and "


id: 9375583c84c7c34c397b77a25bcc4e3d
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"Changing climate conditions are projected to exacerbate health \r\ninequities faced by Maori (medium confidence) (Bennett et al., 2014; \r\nJones et  al., 2014; Hopkins, 2015). The production and ecology of \r\nsome keystone cultural flora and fauna may be impacted by projected \r\nwarming temperatures and reductions in rainfall (medium confidence) \r\n(RSNZ, 2016; Bond et al., 2019; Egan et al., 2020). Obstruction of access \r\nto keystone species is expected to adversely impact customary practice, "


id: daaa50018a02435b682d7fa47e6aeedc
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"business activities (Deloitte, 2019; Lawrence et al., 2020b; MfE, 2020a) \r\n(Box  11.4). Community and infrastructure services are periodically \r\ndisrupted during extreme weather events, triggering impacts from the \r\ninterdependencies across enterprises and individuals (Glavovic, 2014; \r\nPaulik et al., 2021)."


id: e0784866943594f542a5636195194614
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"central government might have with respect to actively upholding \r\nMaori interests under the Treaty of Waitangi (high confidence) (Iorns \r\nMagallanes, 2019). Intergenerational approaches to climate change \r\nplanning will become increasingly important, elevating political \r\ndiscussions about conceptions of rationality, diversity and the rights \r\nof non-human entities (high confidence) (Ritchie, 2013; Carter et al., \r\n2018; Ruru, 2018; Munshi et al., 2020)."


id: 647646c8937014e41c5f667b2dd64246
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"Slow-onset climate change impacts have also had cascading and \r\ncompounding effects. For example, degradation of the GBR by ocean \r\nheating, acidification and non-climatic pressures (Marshall et al., 2019), \r\nrepeated pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding of some settlements (Paulik \r\net al., 2019a; Paulik et al., 2020), long droughts and water insecurity \r\nin rural communities (Tschakert et al., 2017) and the gradual loss of \r\nspecies and ecological communities have caused substantial ecological, \r\nsocial and economic losses. Indigenous Peoples have especially been \r\nimpacted by multiple and complex losses (Johnson et al., 2021) (11.4)."


id: 65f980985ea7b54a698bc5b070234171
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"The impacts and adaptation processes described in Sections 11.3 and \r\n11.4 are focused on specific sectors, systems and Indigenous Peoples. \r\nAdded complexity, risk and adaptation potential stem from cross\u0002sectoral and cross-regional interdependencies."


id: 83b4acc23173bf2d54cd960868f791d4
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"Cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts are projected to grow \r\ndue to a concurrent increase in heatwaves, droughts, fires, storms, \r\nfloods and sea level (high confidence) (CSIRO, 2020; Lawrence et al., \r\n2020b). Urban wastewater, stormwater and water supply systems are \r\nparticularly vulnerable in New Zealand (Paulik et al., 2019a; Hughes \r\net al., 2021) to pluvial flooding (Box 11.4) and to sea level rise (SLR) \r\n(Box 11.6), with flow-on effects to settlements, insurance and finance \r\nsectors, and governments (Lawrence et  al., 2020b). Furthermore, \r\nconsecutive heavy rainfall events in late summer and autumn, \r\nfollowing drought conditions in low-lying modified wetland areas, \r\nhave implications for the operation of flood control infrastructure as \r\nincreased rainfall intensity, land subsidence and sea level rise (SLR) \r\ncompound and result in the retention of floodwaters (Pingram et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 674c9989753dba1237594528d9203ff2
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"In Australia, the aggregate loss of wealth due to climate-induced \r\nreductions in productivity across agriculture, manufacturing and service \r\nsectors is projected to exceed AUD$19 billion by 2030, AUD$211 billion \r\nby 2050 and AUD$4 trillion by 2100 for RCP8.5 (Steffen et  al., \r\n2019) (Table  11.13). Projected impacts also cascade across national \r\nboundaries via value chains, markets, movement of humans and other \r\norganisms and geopolitics (e.g., migration from near-neighbours as a \r\npathway for adaptation, mobile climate-sensitive diseases and changes \r\nin production and trade patterns) (Lee et al., 2018; Nalau and Handmer, \r\n2018; Schwerdtle et al., 2018; Dellink et al., 2019). The scale of impacts \r\nis projected to challenge the adaptive capacity of sectors, governments \r\nand institutions (Steffen et al., 2019), including the insurability of assets \r\nand risks to lenders (Storey and Noy, 2017)."


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"Extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms and \r\nfires have caused deaths and injuries (Deloitte, 2017a) (11.3.5.1), \r\nand affected many households, communities and businesses via \r\nimpacts on ecosystems, critical infrastructure, essential services, food \r\nproduction, the national economy, valued places and employment. This \r\nhas created long-lasting impacts (e.g., mental health, homelessness, \r\nhealth incidents and reduced health services) (Brown et  al., 2017; \r\nBrookfield and Fitzgerald, 2018; Rychetnik et al., 2019) and reduced \r\nadaptive capacity (Friel et al., 2014; O'Brien et al., 2014; Ding et al., \r\n2015; CoA, 2020e) (Box 11.1, Box 11.3, 11.3.1-11.3.10)."


id: 5c0f7a9138ba09b9ac3ea1c25060aead
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"Coordinating adaptation strategies and addressing underlying \r\nexposure and vulnerability can increase resilience to cascading, \r\ncompounding and aggregate impacts (high confidence) (Table 11.17; \r\n11.7.3). Systems understanding, network analysis, stress testing, spatial \r\nmapping, collaboration, information sharing and interoperability across \r\nstates, sectors, agencies and value chains, as well as national-scale \r\nfacilitation, can increase adaptive capacity (Espada et al., 2015; CoA, \r\n2020e; Cradock-Henry et al., 2020b; Jozaei et al., 2020). Greater system "


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"diversity, modularity, redundancy, adaptability and decentralised control \r\ncan reduce the risk of cascading failures and system breakdown (Sinclair \r\net al., 2017; Sellberg et al., 2018). Addressing existing vulnerabilities \r\nin systems can reduce susceptibility and improve the resilience of \r\ninterdependent systems (11.7.3). Multi-level leadership, including \r\nnational and sub-national policies, laws and finance can reduce and \r\nmanage aggregate risks supported by the enablers in Table 11.17."


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"(Deloitte, 2017b), the 2019 floods in northern Queensland (Deloitte, \r\n2019) and the 2019-2020 fires in southern and eastern Australia \r\n(Box 11.1)."


id: 5fb71671cffc462ee70861d717c4e284
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"In New Zealand, the annual cost of rural fire to the economy has been \r\nestimated at NZD$67 million, with indirect 'costs' potentially two to \r\nthree times the direct costs (Scion, 2018). Insured losses from weather\u0002related disasters cost almost NZD$1 billion during 2015-2021 (ICNZ, \r\n2021). Floods cost the New Zealand economy at least NZD$120 million \r\nfor privately insured damages between 2007 and 2017 (D. Frame et al., \r\n2018). The 2007/2008 drought cost NZD$3.2 billion and the 2012/13 \r\ndrought cost NZD$1.6 billion, of which about 20% could be attributed \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (Frame et al., 2020) (11.3.11)."


id: de4cd9e77e3e41401b57eef374cfaf1c
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"Anticipatory governance and agile decision-making can build resilience \r\nto cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts (high confidence) \r\n(Boston, 2016; Deloitte, 2016; Steffen et al., 2019; CoA, 2020e; CSIRO, \r\n2020; Lawrence et  al., 2020b; MfE, 2020c). There is uncertainty \r\nabout whether standard integrated assessment models can estimate \r\ncascading and compounding impacts across systems and sectors, but \r\nsystems methodologies and social network analysis hold promise \r\n(Stoerk et  al., 2018; Cradock-Henry et  al., 2020b). Interventions at \r\nthe landscape, building and individual scales can reduce the negative \r\nhealth effects of current and future extreme heat, if integrated in \r\nwell-communicated heat action plans with robust surveillance and \r\nmonitoring (Jay et al., 2021)."


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"The intangible costs of climate impacts, including death and injury, \r\nimpacts on health and well-being, education and employment, \r\ncommunity connectedness and the loss of ancestral lands, cultural \r\nsites and ecosystems (Barnett et al., 2016; Warner et al., 2019), affect \r\nmultiple sectors and systems and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. \r\nWhile often incommensurable, intangible costs may be far higher than \r\nthe tangible costs. For example, following the Victorian fires in 2009, \r\nthe tangible costs were AUD$3.1  billion while the intangible costs \r\nwere AUD$3.4 billion; following the Queensland floods in 2010/2011, \r\nthe tangible costs were AUD$6.7  billion while the intangible costs \r\nwere AUD$7.4 billion (Deloitte, 2016)."


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"In Australia, the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework (CoA, \r\n2018b), National Recovery and Resilience Agency and Australian \r\nClimate Service (CoA, 2021) can provide some support for adaptation \r\nacross multiple sectors. New Zealand has effective partnerships across \r\ncritical infrastructure through lifelines groups, but organisational silos \r\nand lack of stress testing of plans hamper coordinated decision-making \r\nduring crises and for adaptation (Brown et al., 2017; Lawrence et al., \r\n2020b). The New Zealand national risk assessment, national adaptation \r\nplan, forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Act and monitoring of \r\nadaptation progress by the Climate Change Commission provide a \r\nframework for anticipating climate change risks (MfE, 2020a)."


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"The economic long-run impact increases with higher levels of warming \r\n(high confidence), but there is a wide range in projections. Conservative \r\nestimates for the long-run impacts of a 1degC, 2degC or 3degC global \r\nwarming (relative to 1986-2005) on Australian GDP are -0.3, -0.6 \r\nand -1.1%/year, respectively, while for New Zealand the estimates are \r\n-0.1, -0.4 and -0.8%/year respectively (Kompas et al., 2018). More \r\ndetailed modelling indicates a loss in Australia's GDP of 6% by 2070 \r\nfor 3degC global warming, while a 2.6% GDP rise by 2070 is possible for \r\n1.5degC global warming (Deloitte, 2020). The potential for much more \r\nsevere effects on GDP is shown in recent estimates, which attempt \r\nto account for the increased severity of uncertain effects (e.g., up to \r\n18.5% reduction in Australia's GDP by mid-century) (Swiss Re, 2021)."


id: debcc7eb101ff0b363eb04bbf6d14955
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"The implications of climate change for national economies are significant \r\n(high confidence). The costs associated with lost productivity, disaster \r\nrelief expenditure and unfunded contingent liabilities represent a \r\nmajor risk to financial system stability (MfE, 2020a). Costs include \r\nsignificant and often long-term social impacts, temporary dislocation, \r\nbusiness disruption and impacts on employment, education, \r\ncommunity networks, health and well-being (Deloitte, 2017a). Climate \r\nchange disrupts international patterns of agricultural production and \r\ntrade in ways that may be negative but that also may lead to new \r\nopportunities for agriculture (Mosnier et al., 2014; Nelson et al., 2014; \r\nLee et al., 2018). Net exports may increase following global climate \r\nshocks (Lee et al., 2018), but the longer-term effects on GDP are likely\r\nto be negative (Dellink et al., 2019)."


id: 973b2a0ebb597c7679743350c59d18f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"In Australia, the total annual cost of damage due to floods, coastal \r\ninundation, forest fires, subsidence and wind (excluding cyclones) is \r\nestimated to increase 55% between 2020 and 2100 for RCP8.5 (Mallon \r\net  al., 2019). National damage costs and impacts on asset values \r\ncould be significant (Table 11.13). The macroeconomic shocks induced \r\nfrom climate change, including reduced agricultural yields, damage to \r\nproperty and infrastructure and commodity price increases, could lead to \r\nsignificant market corrections and potential financial instability (Steffen \r\net al., 2019). Under a 'slow decline' scenario by 2060 where Australia \r\nfails to adequately address climate change and sustainability challenges, \r\nGDP is projected to grow at 0.7% less per year and real wages would \r\nbe 50% lower than under an 'outlook scenario' where Australia meets \r\nclimate change and sustainability challenges (CSIRO, 2019)."


id: ca59ab57c6d305c7c53df3daf5f259bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In Australia, during 2007-2016, total economic costs from natural \r\ndisasters averaged AUD$18.2  billion per year (Deloitte, 2017a). \r\nIndividual weather-related disaster costs across multiple sectors have \r\nexceeded AUD$4 billion, such as the 2009 fires in Victoria (Parliament \r\nof Victoria, 2010), the 2010-2011 floods in south-east Queensland "


id: b00bc7364b8681c7cbfec68978c69402
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"In New Zealand, the value of buildings exposed to coastal inundation \r\ncould increase by NZD$2.55 billion for every 0.1-m increment in sea "


id: 1971d17e67b13f9fd95cf7c106b93016
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Table 11.13 |  Economy-wide projected costs (AUD$) of climate change in Australia. (Estimates are not comparable across studies because different methods have been used. \r\nEstimates for later in the century are speculative because both impacts and adaptation are uncertain.)"


id: 8dc78b5c0d7e306746aa1b05e2c5e9d2
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"New Zealand from near-neighbour island nations as they become \r\nincreasingly stressed by rising seas, higher temperatures, more droughts \r\nand stronger storms (Nalau and Handmer, 2018)."


id: 14aaae4f69047d0649af95af7a3460a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"level, that is, NZD$25.5 billion for a 1.0-m sea level rise (SLR) (Paulik \r\net al., 2020). Greater understanding is required of the distributional \r\nimpacts, the rate of change of costs over time and the economic \r\nimplications of delayed action (Warner et al., 2020)."


id: 7cdb3bd4db0871d28711a470abd38577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Delaying adaptation to climate risks may result in higher overall costs \r\nin future when adaptation is more urgent and impacts more extreme \r\n(medium confidence) (Boston and Lawrence, 2018; IPCC, 2018). \r\nEstimates of the magnitude of adaptation costs and benefits in the \r\nregion are localised and sectoral (e.g., (Thamo et al., 2017) or regionally \r\naggregated (Joshi et  al., 2016). Adaptation costs are expected to \r\nincrease markedly for higher RCPs, for example, a tripling of expected \r\ncosts between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for sea level rise (SLR) protection \r\nin Australia (Ware et al., 2020). Existing governance arrangements for \r\nfunding adaptation are inadequate for the scope and scale of climate \r\nchange impacts anticipated; dedicated funding mechanisms that can \r\nbe sustained over generations can enable more timely adaptation \r\n(Boston and Lawrence, 2018)."


id: f81f54ccc3647aa8c4ce71e7cee8e705
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Investments in mitigation and adaptation can help reduce or prevent \r\neconomic losses now and in the coming decades (IPCC, 2018; Steffen \r\net  al., 2019); however, the costs and benefits of mitigation and \r\nadaptation are not well understood in the region (high confidence) \r\n(CSIRO, 2019; MfE, 2020a)."


id: 3c90cf2ba43744513939e33146ef3707
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Nine key risks have been identified (Table 11.14) based on four criteria: \r\nmagnitude, likelihood, timing and adaptive capacity (Chapter 16). \r\nMost of the key risks are similar to those in the IPCC AR5 Australasia \r\nchapter (Reisinger et al., 2014), but the emphasis here is on specific \r\nsystems affected by multiple hazards rather than specific hazards \r\naffecting multiple systems. The selection of key risks reflects what has \r\nbeen observed, projected and documented, noting that there are gaps \r\nin knowledge, and a lack of knowledge does not imply a lack of risk \r\n(11.7.3.3). Key risks are grouped into four categories:"


id: 8067ea423c6489c84310f2325fd074c5
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"Caveats: (a) key risks are assessed at regional scales, so they do not \r\ninclude other risks for finer scales or specific groups; (b) non-climatic \r\nvulnerabilities are held constant for simplicity; (c) the assessment of \r\nrisk ratings at different levels of global warming is limited by available \r\nliterature; (d) risks increase with global warming, despite the lack \r\nof an IPCC risk rating beyond very high; and (e) the feasibility and \r\neffectiveness of adaptations options were not assessed due to limited \r\nliterature (11.7.3.3)."


id: 578a7b9ca58f71a553aa25a5d7ecd755
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"The New Zealand National Climate Change Risk Assessment (MfE, \r\n2020a) identified the priority risks from climate change for New \r\nZealand based on a literature review and expert elicitation. The top \r\ntwo risks in each of five domains are as follows:"


id: d576d77426730f30e57c77f4038ad828
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"At higher levels of global warming, adaptation costs increase, options \r\nbecome limited and risks grow. The 'burning embers' diagram in \r\nFigure 11.6 has four IPCC risk categories: undetectable, moderate, high \r\nand very high, with transition points defined by different global warming \r\nranges. The embers are indicative, based on an assessment of available \r\nliterature and expert judgement (Supplementary Material SM 11.2). \r\nOutcomes for low and moderate adaptation have been compared, with the \r\nlatter including both incremental and transformative options. Illustrative \r\nexamples of adaptation pathways are shown in Figure 11.7 for low-lying \r\ncoastal areas and Figure  11.8 for heat-related mortality. These figures \r\nhighlight thresholds at which adaptation options become ineffective and \r\npossible combinations of strategies and options implemented at different \r\ntimes to manage emerging risks and changing risk profiles."


id: 742b07b19ef9fdef9b18f6aead2beb64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Table 11.14 |  Key risks from climate change based on assessment of the literature and expert judgement (Supplementary Material SM 11.2). Assessment criteria are magnitude, \r\ntiming, likelihood and adaptive capacity. Risk drivers are hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Adaptation options describe ways in which risks can be reduced. Confidence ratings \r\nare based on the amount of evidence and agreement between lines of evidence."


id: e0d8fc98879945703606c1bfb30be7a2
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"Figure 11.6 |  Burning embers diagram for each of the nine key risks for low and moderate adaptation. The risk categories are undetectable, moderate, high and \r\nvery high. While there is no risk category beyond very high, risks obviously get worse with further global warming, and the risk for coral reefs is already very high. The assessment \r\ns based on available literature and expert judgement, summarised in Table 11.14 and described in Supplementary Material SM 11.2. The global warming range associated with \r\neach risk transition has a confidence rating (**** very high, *** high, ** moderate, * low) based on the amount of evidence and level of agreement between lines of evidence"


id: 615d27d2189b428f4a20cf8cbccfb880
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"change strategies and plans and revised policies and rules to enable \r\nadaptation (Table 11.15b). Different adaptation approaches continue \r\nto create confusion and inertia while development pressures continue \r\n(Schneider et al., 2017). Opportunities for integrated adaptation and \r\nmitigation planning in regional policies and plans have arisen through \r\nthe Resource Management Amendment Act 2020 (Dickie, 2020), the \r\nNational Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (MfE, 2020b) \r\nand the revised national coastal guidance (MfE, 2017a), but rely on \r\nfunding instruments to be in place and statutes are aligned for their \r\neffectiveness (very high confidence) (Boston and Lawrence, 2018; \r\nCCATWG, 2018)."


id: e95a39d506d990eecfb067c21828a4f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"priorities for New Zealand to address through the National Adaptation \r\nPlan, its implementation and monitoring."


id: 462527c6ab1bb024f401234b3f9f83fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8418
content:
"Short-term benefits from climate change may include reduced winter \r\nmortality, reduced energy demand for winter heating, increased \r\nagriculture productivity and forest growth in south and west New \r\nZealand and increased forest and pasture growth in southern Australia, \r\nexcept where rainfall and soil nutrients are limiting (11.3.4, 11.3.6, \r\n11.3.10) (medium confidence)."


id: 966669c72821c9aa818d6f5ffd9c846c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"The ambition, scope and progress on adaptation by governments \r\nhave risen but are uneven, with a focus on high-level strategies at \r\nthe national level, adaptation planning at sub-national levels and \r\nnew enabling legislation (very high confidence) (Table  11.15a, \r\nTable  11.15b) (Lawrence et  al., 2015; Macintosh et  al., 2015; MfE, \r\n2020a). The adaptation process comprises vulnerability and risk \r\nassessments, identification of options, planning, implementation, \r\nmonitoring, evaluation and review. Large gaps remain, especially in \r\neffective implementation, monitoring and evaluation (Supplementary \r\nMaterial SM 11.1) (CCATWG, 2017; Warnken and Mosadeghi, 2018), \r\nand current adaptation is largely incremental and reactive (very high \r\nconfidence) (Box 11.4, Box 11.6, Table 11.14)."


id: ea668926643fd12c7faaa03ab7b50ec4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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content:
"Observed and projected rates of sea level rise (SLR) (Box 11.6) and \r\nincreased flood frequency (11.3.3) are challenging established uses of \r\nmodelling, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis, where climate \r\nchange damage functions cannot be projected or are unknown (deep \r\nuncertainty) or impacts on communities are ambiguous (Infometrics \r\nand PSConsulting, 2015; Lawrence et  al., 2019a; MfE, 2020a). New \r\ntools are available in the region (Table 11.17), but uptake cannot be \r\nassumed (high confidence) (Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017; Palutikof \r\net al., 2019c)."


id: ea3c6903a0f5b283013fdb46979c4ac4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Resilience and adaptation approaches are beginning to converge \r\n(White and O'Hare, 2014; Aldunce et  al., 2015) (Supplementary \r\nMaterial SM 11.1) but widespread 'bounce-back' resilience-driven \r\nresponses that lock in risk by discounting ongoing and changing \r\nclimate risk (Leitch and Bohensky, 2014; O'Hare et al., 2016; Wenger, \r\n2017; Torabi et al., 2018) can create maladaptation and impede long\u0002term adaptation goals (high confidence) (Glavovic and Smith, 2014; \r\nDudney et al., 2018)."


id: ea76d1d906038dfe45398cb5efd74f9d
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"New Zealand's Climate Change Response Act 2019 creates a legal \r\nmandate for national climate change risk assessments (first one \r\ncompleted) (MfE, 2020a) and national adaptation plans (first in \r\npreparation), as well as a Climate Change Commission to monitor and \r\nreport on adaptation implementation. Preparation of natural and built \r\nenvironment, strategic planning and climate change adaptation acts is \r\nunder way, including provision for funding and managed retreat (MfE, \r\n2020c). National coastal guidance is available for adaptation planning \r\nto address changing climate risks (MfE, 2017a) (Table  11.15b). \r\nMeanwhile, several local authorities have developed integrated climate "


id: f8b65bd7d6e99fb15265afabba7d37c1
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"Local government engagement with communities on adaptation is \r\nstarting to motivate a change towards more collaborative engagement \r\npractices (Archie et  al., 2018; Bendall, 2018; MfE, 2019; Schneider \r\net al., 2020). Nature-based adaptations (Colloff et al., 2016; Lavorel \r\net al., 2019; Della Bosca and Gillespie, 2020) and 'green infrastructure' \r\n(medium confidence) (Lin et al., 2016; Alexandra and Norman, 2020) \r\nare increasingly being adopted (Rogers et al., 2020a)."


id: 6950030d2890d1e7560c37f2bd09bf83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Table 11.15a |  Examples of Australian adaptation strategies, plans and initiatives by government agencies at national, sub-national and regional or local levels. These examples \r\nhave not been assessed for their effectiveness (see Supplementary Material Table SM11.1a)."


id: f2debb4e9174957a586ae2faf761ff7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"Table 11.15b |  Examples of New Zealand's adaptation strategies, plans and initiatives by government agencies at national, sub-national and regional or local levels. NB: These \r\nexamples have not been assessed for their effectiveness (see Supplementary Material Table SM11.1b)"


id: a3c4f27403adc2267828c329a1356c03
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"Bray and Palmer, 2018). Knowledge co-production for Indigenous \r\nadaptation pathways can enable transformative change from colonial \r\nlegacies (Hill et  al., 2020). Learning and experimentation across \r\ngovernance boundaries and between agencies and local communities \r\nenable adaptation to be better aligned with changing climate risks \r\nand community (high confidence) (Funfgeld, 2015; Howes et al., 2015; \r\nBardsley and Wiseman, 2016; Lawrence et al., 2019b)."


id: 7c5f98ad174ed8659672bcdf529194e6
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"Some businesses have initiated active adaptation (Aldum et al., 2014; \r\nLinnenluecke et al., 2015; Bremer and Linnenluecke, 2017; CCATWG, \r\n2017; MfE, 2018), with most focused on identifying climate risks \r\n(Aldum et  al., 2014; Gasbarro et  al., 2016; Cradock-Henry, 2017). \r\nBusinesses are more likely to engage in anticipatory adaptation when \r\nthe frequency of climate events is known (McKnight and Linnenluecke, \r\n2019). Effective cooperation and a positive innovation culture can \r\ncontribute to the collaborative development of climate change \r\nadaptation pathways (medium confidence) (Bardsley et al., 2018)."


id: b4bd50d40282de803d2a767b7ac9878a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
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"There is increasing focus on improving adaptive capacity for transitional \r\nand transformational responses, but reactive responses dominate (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Smith et  al., 2015; Schlosberg et  al., 2017; Boston \r\nand Lawrence, 2018). While extreme events can provide opportunities \r\nfor positive transitions within communities (Cradock-Henry et  al., \r\n2018b) (e.g., Queensland Reconstruction Authority Building Back \r\nBetter scheme), often rebuilding occurs in at-risk places to aid quick \r\nrecovery (Lawrence and Saunders, 2017). Community-based adaptation \r\ninnovations (Bendall, 2018; Kench et  al., 2018; Forino et  al., 2019) \r\ninclude relationship building; use of new decision tools, pathways \r\nplanning with communities, visualisation and serious games (Lawrence \r\nand Haasnoot, 2017; Schlosberg et al., 2017; Flood et al., 2018; Reiter "


id: d1e2315e9e8b37fb7802bd9fe0cb7dec
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"Some areas in northern Australia and New Zealand, especially those \r\nwith higher proportions of Indigenous populations, face severe housing, \r\nhealth, education, employment and services deficits that exacerbate \r\nthe impacts of climate change (Kotey, 2015) (11.3.5; 11.4; 11.6). "


id: 8149b4596e2a75257f445e07fc37fcf3
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"Where adaptation relies upon an ageing population and an overstretched \r\nvolunteer base, vulnerability to climate change impacts is being \r\nexacerbated (Astill and Miller, 2018; Davies et al., 2018). Adaptation \r\noptions that succeed within remote Indigenous communities are \r\nfounded on connections to traditional lands, alignment with cultural \r\nvalues and contribute to social, cultural and economic goals (Nursey\u0002"


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" \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\ninclude governance inertia at all levels, hindering the development of \r\ncareful and comprehensive adaptation plans and their implementation \r\n(Boston and Lawrence, 2018; MfE and Hawke's Bay Regional Council, \r\n2020; White and Lawrence, 2020). Lack of clarity about mandate, roles \r\nand leadership and inadequate funding for adaptation by national and \r\nstate governments and sectors, are slowing adaptation (Lukasiewicz \r\net al., 2017; Waters and Barnett, 2018; LGNZ, 2019; MfE, 2020c) (11.3; \r\n11.7.1). Established planning tools and measures were designed for \r\nstatic risk profiles, and practitioners are slow to take up tools better \r\nsuited to changing climate risks (CoA, 2020e; Schneider et al., 2020) \r\n(11.5; Box  11.5). The communication of relevant climate change "


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"Major gaps in the adaptation process remain across all sectors \r\nand at all levels of decision-making (very high confidence) (11.3; \r\nTable  11.115a, Table  15b). Efforts to build, resource and deploy \r\nadaptive capacity are slow compared to escalating impacts and risks \r\n(Stephenson et al., 2018; CoA, 2020e). Barriers to effective adaptation "


id: 20754491c5fef618eb77020d7d647acd
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"2016). A lack of robust and timely adaptation means key risks will \r\nincreasingly manifest as impacts, and numerous systems, communities \r\nand institutions are projected to reach limits (Table 11.14, Figure 11.6), \r\ncompounding current adaptation deficits and undermining society's \r\ncapacity to adapt to future impacts (very high confidence)."


id: f12bb98cee61172aa9edb1c1af5ed038
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"information remains ad hoc (Stevens and O'Connor, 2015; CCATWG, \r\n2017; Palutikof et al., 2019c; Salmon, 2019). In Australia, the lack of \r\nnational guidance or adaptation laws creates barriers to adaptation, \r\nreflected in uneven coastal adaptation based on a wait-and-see \r\napproach (Dedekorkut-Howes et al., 2020)."


id: ab5b15ed1c4c7ffdd498f0742a0bd708
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"Adaptation enablers include understanding relevant knowledge, \r\ndiverse values and governance, institutions and resources (very high \r\nconfidence) (Gorddard et  al., 2016). Skills and learning, community \r\nnetworks, people-place connections, trust-building, community \r\nresources and support and engaged governance build social resilience \r\nthat support adaptation (Maclean et al., 2014; Eriksen, 2019; Phelps \r\nand Kelly, 2019). A multi-faceted focus on the role societal inequalities \r\nand environmental degradation play in generating climate change \r\nvulnerability can enable fairer adaptation outcomes (McManus et al., \r\n2014; Ambrey et al., 2017; Schlosberg et al., 2017; Graham et al., 2018)."


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"The feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation options will change \r\nover time depending on place, values, cultural appropriateness, social \r\nacceptability, ongoing cost-effectiveness, leadership and the ability \r\nto implement them through the prevailing governance regime (Singh \r\net al., 2020). The capacity and commitment of the political system can \r\ndrive early action that can reduce risks (Boston, 2017)."


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"Potential biophysical limits to adaptation for non-human species and \r\necosystems where impacts are projected to be irreversible, with limited \r\nscope for adaptation, are signalled in key risks 1-4 (11.6). In some \r\nhuman systems, fundamental limits to adaptation include thermal \r\nthresholds and safe freshwater (Alston et al., 2018) (Table 11.14) and \r\nthe inability of some low-lying coastal communities to adapt in place \r\n(Box 11.6) (very high confidence). Some individuals and communities \r\nare already reaching their psycho-social adaptation limits (Evans et al., "


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"Adaptation decision support tools enable a shift from reactive to \r\nanticipatory planning for changing climate risks (high confidence). The \r\navailable tools are diversifying with futures and systems methodologies \r\nand dynamic adaptive policy pathways being increasingly used \r\n(Bosomworth et al., 2017; Prober et al., 2017; Lawrence et al., 2018a; \r\nCoA, 2020e; Rogers et al., 2020a; Schneider et al., 2020) (11.5; Box 11.6) \r\nto facilitate the shift from static to dynamic adaptation by highlighting "


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"conditions (high confidence) (Moloney and McClaren, 2018; Palutikof \r\net al., 2019a; Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a). Training to improve decision \r\nmakers' 'evaluative capacity' can play a role (Scott and Moloney, \r\n2021). Climate action benchmarking, diagnostic tools and networking \r\ncan enhance the adaptation process across diverse decision settings \r\n(e.g., water, coasts, protected areas and Indigenous Peoples) (Ayre and \r\nNettle, 2017; Davidson and Gleeson, 2018; Coenen et al., 2019; Gibbs, \r\n2020). Effective adaptation requires cross-jurisdictional and cross\u0002sectoral policy coherence and national coordination (Delany-Crowe \r\net al., 2019; Rychetnik et al., 2019; MfE, 2020c)."


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"path dependencies and potential lock-in of decisions, system \r\ndependencies and the potential for cascading impacts (Table 11.17) \r\n(Wilson et al., 2013; Clarvis et al., 2015; Pearson et al., 2018; Cradock\u0002Henry et al., 2020b; Lawrence et al., 2020b). Modelling and tools to \r\ntest the robustness and cost-effectiveness of options (Infometrics and \r\nPSConsulting, 2015; Qin and Stewart, 2020) can be used alongside \r\nadaptation strategies with decision-relevant and usable information \r\n(Smith et  al., 2016; Tangney, 2019; Serrao-Neumann et  al., 2020), \r\nparticularly when supported by effective governance and national and \r\nsub-national guidance (Box 11.6)."


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"More inclusive, collaborative and learning-oriented community \r\nengagement processes are fundamental to effective adaptation \r\noutcomes (11.7.3.2) (very high confidence) (Boston, 2016; Lawrence \r\nand Haasnoot, 2017; Sellberg et  al., 2018; Serrao-Neumann et  al., \r\n2019a; Simon et al., 2020). More participatory vulnerability and risk \r\nassessments can better reflect different knowledge systems, values, \r\nperspectives, trade-offs, dilemmas, synergies, costs and risks (Jacobs \r\net  al., 2019; Ogier et  al., 2020; Tonmoy et  al., 2020). A shift from \r\nhierarchical to more cooperative governance modalities can assist \r\neffective adaptation (Vermeulen et al., 2018; Steffen et al., 2019; CoA, \r\n2020e; Lawrence et al., 2020b; MfE, 2020a; Hanna et al., 2021)."


id: 86e7725a47daf81a224bd1cddba9730
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"Concern for climate change has become widespread (Hopkins, 2015; \r\nBorchers Arriagada et  al., 2020), giving climate adaptation social \r\nlegitimacy (high confidence). Over three quarters of Australians \r\n(77%) agree that climate change is occurring, and 61% believe \r\nclimate change is caused by humans (Merzian et al., 2019). A growing \r\nproportion of Australians perceive links between climate change and \r\nhigh temperatures experienced during heatwaves and extremely hot \r\ndays (Summer 2018/2019) (48%), droughts and flooding (42%) and \r\nurban water shortages (30%) (Merzian et al., 2019). Rural populations \r\nin NSW perceive climate change impacts as stressing their well-being \r\nand mental health and requiring leadership and action (Austin et al., \r\n2020). In New Zealand, between 2009 and 2018, the proportion of New "


id: cf0c24adf8f1290b871cec0366024e64
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"The use of more systemic, collaborative and future-oriented engagement \r\napproaches is facilitating adaptation in local contexts (high confidence) \r\n(Rouse et al., 2013; MfE, 2017a; Leitch et al., 2019). Local 'adaptation \r\nchampions' and experimental and tailored engagement processes \r\ncan enhance learning (McFadgen and Huitema, 2017; Lindsay et  al., \r\n2019). Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (Lawrence et al., 2019a) \r\nand inclusive community governance (Schneider et al., 2020) can help \r\nprogress difficult decisions such as the relocation of cultural assets \r\nand managed retreat, and contestation about which public goods "


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"Zealanders who agreed or strongly agreed that climate change is real \r\nincreased from 58% to 78% (a 34.5% increase), while those agreeing \r\nor strongly agreeing that it was caused by humans increased from \r\n41% to 64% (a 56.1% increase) (Milfont et al., 2021). Nevertheless, \r\nNew Zealanders have a tendency to overestimate the amount of sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR), especially among those most concerned about climate \r\nchange and incorrectly associate it with melting sea ice, which has \r\nimplications for engagement and communication strategies (Priestley \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 76b8ea2596a01c0265fca41d16d70b7e
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"There are two priority areas where new knowledge is critical for \r\naccelerating adaptation implementation."


id: c312eebf8fba9ce2a2780fd3f515dd62
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"A step change in adaptation action is needed to address climate \r\nrisks and to be consistent with climate resilient development (very \r\nhigh confidence). Current adaptation falls short on the assessment of \r\ncomplex risks, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. It is largely \r\nincremental and temporary given the scale of projected impacts; it has \r\nlimits and is mainly reactive rather than anticipatory. Furthermore, \r\nrisks are projected to cascade and compound, with impacts and costs \r\nthat challenge adaptive capacities (11.5) and call for transformational \r\nresponses (11.6, Table  11.15a, Table  11.15b; Supplementary Tables \r\nSM11.1a and SM11.1b)."


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"Implementing enablers can help drive adaptation ambition and action \r\nconsistent with climate resilient development (very high confidence) \r\n(11.7.3, Table  11.17). However, the scale and scope of cascading, \r\ncompounding and aggregate impacts (11.5.1) calls for new and timely \r\nadaptation, including more effective ongoing monitoring, evaluation, \r\nreview and continual adjustment (11.7.3) towards the transformations \r\nthat can break through the path dependencies that define the way things \r\nare done now (Cradock-Henry et al., 2018b; UN et al., 2018; Head, 2020). \r\nHowever, complex interactions between objectives can create social and \r\neconomic trade-offs (Table 11.1, 11.3.5.3, 11.7.3.1, Box 11.6)."


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"Climate change is affecting Australia and New Zealand in profound ways. Some natural systems of cultural, environmental, social and economic \r\nsignificance are at risk of irreversible change. The socioeconomic costs of climate change are substantial, with impacts that cascade and \r\ncompound across sectors and regions, as demonstrated by heatwaves, wildfire, cyclone, drought and flood events."


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"Temperature has increased by 1.4degC in Australia and 1.1degC in New Zealand over the last 110  years, with more \r\nextreme hot days. The oceans in the region have warmed significantly, resulting in longer and more frequent \r\nmarine heatwaves. Sea levels have risen and the oceans have become more acidic. Snow depths have declined \r\nand glaciers have receded. Northwestern Australia and most of southern New Zealand have become wetter, while \r\nsouthern Australia and most of northern New Zealand have become drier. The frequency, severity and duration \r\nof extreme wildfire weather conditions have increased in southern and eastern Australia and northeastern New \r\nZealand."


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"The impacts of climate change on marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and species are evident. The \r\nmass mortality of corals throughout the Great Barrier Reef during marine heatwaves in 2016-2020 is a striking \r\nexample. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented south-eastern Australia wildfires in the spring \r\nand summer of 2019-2020, loss of alpine habitats in Australia, extensive loss of kelp forests, shifts further south in \r\nthe distribution of almost 200 marine species, decline and extinction in some vertebrate species in the Australian \r\nwet tropics, expansion of invasive plants, animals and pathogens in New Zealand, erosion and flooding of coastal \r\nhabitats in New Zealand, river flow decline in southern Australia, increased stress in rural communities, insurance \r\nlosses for floods in New Zealand, increase in heatwave mortalities in Australian capital cities and fish deaths in the \r\nMurray-Darling River in the summer of 2018-2019."


id: b1770225955a558eaaffa9734aeb5e68
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"FAQ 11.2 | What systems in Australia and New Zealand are most at risk from ongoing climate change?\r\nThe nine key risks to human systems and ecosystems in Australia and New Zealand from ongoing climate change are shown in Figure FAQ \r\n11.2.1. Some risks, especially on ecosystems, are now difficult to avoid. Other risks can be reduced by adaptation if global mitigation is effective."


id: 48dca9c5f82868a0633a6817992c7876
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"Risk is the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. For a given hazard (e.g., fire), the risk will be greater \r\nin areas with high exposure (e.g., many houses) and/or high vulnerability (e.g., remote communities with limited \r\nescape routes). The severity and type of climate risk varies geographically (Figure FAQ11.2.1). Everyone will be \r\naffected by climate change, with disadvantaged and remote people and communities the most vulnerable."


id: e2478fc9f58e9f4d80fbee6e87844c76
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"The risks to natural and human systems are often compounded by impacts across multiple spatial and temporal \r\nscales. For example, fires damage property, farms, forests and nature with short- and long-term effects on \r\nbiodiversity, natural resources, human health, communities and the economy. Major impacts across multiple sectors \r\ncan disrupt supply chains to industries and communities and constrain delivery of health, energy, water and food \r\nservices. These impacts create challenges for the adaptation and governance of climate risks. When combined, they \r\nhave far-reaching socioeconomic and environmental impacts."


id: 15e993fe4a57f43df4dc7f743eafcb1c
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"FAQ 11.3 | How can Indigenous Peoples' knowledge and practice help us understand contemporary climate impacts \r\nand inform adaptation in Australia and New Zealand?"


id: cdb1a4b99b435841c6e22da011e0c616
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"In Australia and New Zealand, as with many places around the world, Indigenous Peoples with connections to their traditional country and \r\nextensive histories hold deep knowledge from observing and living in a changing climate. This provides insights that inform adaptation to \r\nclimate change."


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"Indigenous Australians--Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders--maintain knowledge regarding previous sea level \r\nrise, climate patterns and shifts in seasonal change associated with the flowering of trees and emergence of food \r\nsources, developed over thousands of generations of observation of their traditional country. Knowledge of localised \r\ncontemporary adaptation is also held by many Indigenous Australians with connections to traditional lands. With \r\nassured free and prior informed consent, this provides a means for Indigenous-guided land management, including \r\nfor fire management and carbon abatement, fauna studies, medicinal plant products, threatened species recovery, \r\nwater management and weed management."


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"Tangata Whenua Maori in New Zealand are grounded in Matauranga Maori knowledge, which is based on human-\r\nnature relationships and ecological integrity and incorporates practices used to detect and anticipate changes \r\ntaking place in the environment. Social-cultural networks and conventions that promote collective action and \r\nmutual support are central features of many Maori communities and these customary approaches are critical to \r\nresponding to, and recovering from, adverse environmental conditions. Intergenerational approaches to planning \r\nfor the future are also intrinsic to Maori social-cultural organisation and are expected to become increasingly \r\nimportant, elevating political discussions about conceptions of rationality, diversity and the rights of non-human \r\nentities in climate change policy and adaptation."


id: 886cf89c3f7232e8fbcc1f591674f64d
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"There is already work under way by governments, businesses, communities and Indigenous Peoples to help us adapt to climate change. \r\nHowever, much more adaptation is needed in light of the ongoing and intensifying climate risks. This includes coordinated laws, plans, \r\nguidance and funding that enable society to adapt and the information, education and training that can support it. Everyone has a part to \r\nplay working together."


id: a3261a9e858692dabd83a6fb589759ee
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"We currently mainly react to climate events such as wildfires, heatwaves, floods and droughts and generally rebuild \r\nin the same places. However, climate change is making these events more frequent and intense, and ongoing \r\nsea level rise and changes in natural ecosystems are advancing. Better coordination and collaboration between \r\ngovernment agencies, communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and Tangata Whenua Indigenous \r\nPeoples, not-for-profit organisations and businesses will help prepare for these climate impacts more proactively, in \r\ncombination with future climate risks integrated into their decisions and planning. This will reduce the impacts we \r\nexperience now and the risks that will affect future generations."


id: 1fa17ce0a3d8ec1319d85aa940d75783
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"Some of the risks for natural systems are close to critical thresholds and adaptation may be unable to prevent \r\necosystem collapse. Other risks will be severe, but we can reduce their impact by acting now, for example coastal \r\nflooding from sea level rise, heat-related mortality and managing water stresses. Many of the risks have the \r\npotential to cascade across social and economic sectors with widespread societal impacts. In such cases, really \r\nsignificant system-wide changes will be needed in the way we currently live and govern. To facilitate such changes, \r\nnew governance frameworks, nationally consistent and accessible information, collaborative engagement and \r\npartnerships with all sectors, communities and Indigenous Peoples and the resources to address the risks are needed \r\n(Figure FAQ11.4.1)."


id: 484dc2200aa7801bfc900c03d4c05bd3
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"However, our ability to adapt to climate change impacts also rests on every region in the world playing its part in \r\nreducing greenhouse gas emissions. If mitigation is ineffective, global warming will be rapid and adaptation costs \r\nwill increase, with worsening losses and damages."


id: b6ec0fb154ae51753e9cc54ec29384b6
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"(IPCC, 2018) (11.5.1, 11.5.2, Box 11.6) and legal risks for those with \r\nadaptation mandates and for financial institutions (11.5.1) (very high \r\nconfidence). The scale and scope of societal change needed for the \r\nregion to transition to more climate resilient development pathways \r\nrequires close attention to governance, ethical questions, the role \r\nof civil society and the place of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander \r\nPeoples and Tangata Whenua Maori in the co-production of ongoing \r\nadaptation at multiple scales (Loorbach et  al., 2017; Koehler et  al., \r\n2019; Hill et al., 2020)."


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"The region faces an extremely challenging future that will be highly \r\ndisruptive for many human and natural systems (IPCC, 2018) (UNEP, \r\n2020; AAS, 2021; IPCC, 2021) (11.5.1, 11.6, 11.7; Boxes 11.1-11.6; \r\nTable 11.14). The extent to which the limits to adaptation are reached \r\ndepends on whether global warming peaks this century at 1.5degC, 2degC \r\nor 3+degC above pre-industrial levels. Whatever the outcome, adaptation \r\nand mitigation are essential and urgent (very high confidence)."


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"Lead Authors: Laura Astigarraga (Uruguay), Noemi Chacon (Venezuela), Nicolas Cuvi (Ecuador), \r\nChristian Huggel (Switzerland), Liliana Miranda (Peru), Mariana Moncassim Vale (Brazil), Jean \r\nPierre Ometto (Brazil), Pablo L. Peri, (Argentina), Julio C. Postigo (USA/Peru), Laura Ramajo (Chile/\r\nSpain), Lisandro Roco (Chile), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina)."


id: 17039d92c3fe3c96c62d692320508ddc
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"Contributing Authors: Julia Alves Menezes (Brazil), Pedro Borges (Venezuela), Jhonattan Bueno \r\n(Venezuela), Francisco Cuesta (Ecuador), Fabian Drenkhan (Peru), Alex Guerra (Guatemala), \r\nValeria Guinder (Argentina), Isabel Hagen (Switzerland), Jorgelina Hardoy (Argentina), Stella \r\nHartinger (Peru), Gioconda Herrera (Ecuador), Cecilia Herzog (Brazil), Barbara Jacob (Chile), Thais \r\nKasecker (Brazil), Andrea Lampis (Colombia/Brazil), Izabella Lentino (Brazil), Luis C. S. Madeira \r\nDomingues (Brazil), Jose Marengo (Brazil), David Montenegro Lapola (Brazil), Ana Rosa Moreno \r\n(Mexico), Julia de Niemeyer Caldas (Brazil), Eduardo Pacay (Costa Rica/Guatemala), Roberto \r\nPasten (Chile), Matias Piaggio (Uruguay), Osvaldo Rezende (Brazil), Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales \r\n(Colombia), Marina Romanello (Argentina/UK), Sadie J. Ryan (USA/UK), Anna Stewart-Ibarra \r\n(USA/Ecuador), Maria Valladares (Chile/Spain)"


id: 3cba60838fd789ffa8852b07ba4fbad3
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"Castellanos, E., M.F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga, N. Chacon, N. Cuvi, C. Huggel, L. Miranda, M. Moncassim Vale, J.P. Ometto, \r\nP.L. Peri, J.C. Postigo, L. Ramajo, L. Roco, and M. Rusticucci, 2022: Central and South America. In: Climate Change \r\n2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1689-1816, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.014."


id: ebac5aa6d5b1e226bd6fcf8a003b7a85
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"Global warming has caused glacier loss in the Andes from 30% \r\nto more than 50% of their area since the 1980s. Glacier retreat, \r\ntemperature increase and precipitation variability, together with \r\nland use changes, have affected ecosystems, water resources \r\nand livelihoods through landslides and flood disasters (very high \r\nconfidence). In several areas of the Andes, flood and landslide disasters \r\nhave increased, and water availability and quality and soil erosion have \r\nbeen affected by both climatic and non-climatic factors (high confidence). \r\n{12.3.2, 12.3.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.13, Table SM12.6}"


id: ced8080299e64d9c5e2d4664273b1668
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"Central and South America (CSA) are highly exposed, vulnerable \r\nand strongly impacted by climate change, a situation amplified \r\nby inequality, poverty, population growth and high population \r\ndensity, land use change particularly deforestation with \r\nthe consequent biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and high \r\ndependence of national and local economies on natural resources \r\nfor the production of commodities (high confidence1\r\n). Profound \r\neconomic, ethnic and social inequalities are exacerbated by climate \r\nchange. High levels of widespread poverty, weak water governance, \r\nunequal access to safe water and sanitation services and lack of \r\ninfrastructure and financing reduce adaptation capacity, increasing \r\nand creating new population vulnerabilities (high confidence). {12.1.1, \r\n12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2}"


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content:
"The scientific evidence since the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report \r\n(AR5) increased the confidence in the synergy among fire, land \r\nuse change, particularly deforestation, and climate change, \r\ndirectly impacting human health, ecosystem functioning, \r\nforest structure, food security and the livelihoods of resource\u0002dependent communities (medium confidence). Regional increases \r\nin temperature, aridity and drought increased the frequency and \r\nintensity of fire. On average, people in the region were more exposed \r\nto high fire danger between 1 and 26 additional days depending on \r\nthe sub-region for the years 2017-2020 compared to 2001-2004 (high \r\nconfidence). {12.2, 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10, Table 12.5}"


id: dfd8127d189062217bd7954359da9ceb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32711
content:
"The Amazon forest, one of the world's largest biodiversity \r\nand carbon repositories, is highly vulnerable to drought \r\n(high confidence). The Amazon forest was highly impacted by the \r\nunprecedented droughts and higher temperatures observed in 1998, \r\n2005, 2010 and 2015/2016, which are attributed partly to climate \r\nchange. This resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide \r\nreductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning pristine forest \r\nareas from a carbon sink into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere \r\n(high confidence). Other terrestrial ecosystems in CSA have been \r\nimpacted by climate change, through persistent drought or extreme \r\nclimatic events. The combined effect of anthropogenic land use \r\nchange and climate change increases the vulnerabilities of terrestrial \r\necosystems to extreme climate events and fires (medium confidence). \r\n{12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10}"


id: bb85ac3afff50c518c9ae583b70aa774
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27062
content:
"Changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation and \r\nextreme temperatures are impacting agricultural production \r\n(high confidence). Since the mid-20th century, increasing mean \r\nprecipitation has positively impacted agricultural production in SES, \r\nalthough extremely long dry spells have become more frequent, \r\naffecting the economies of large cities in southeastern Brazil. \r\nConversely, reduced precipitation and altered rainfall at the start and \r\nend of the rainy season and during the mid-summer drought (MSD) is \r\nimpacting rainfed subsistence farming, particularly in the Dry Corridor \r\nin CA and in the tropical Andes, compromising food security (high \r\nconfidence). The crop growth duration for maize in those regions was \r\nreduced by at least 5% between 1981-2010 and 2015-2019. {12.3.1, \r\n12.3.2, 12.3.6, Table 12.4}"


id: 523185de2914e1d901041b69e4764828
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10384
content:
"The distribution of terrestrial species has changed in the Andes \r\ndue to increasing temperature (very high confidence). Species \r\nhave shifted upslope, leading to range contractions for highland \r\nspecies and range contractions and expansions for lowland species, \r\nincluding crops and vectors of diseases (very high confidence). \r\n{12.3.2.4}"


id: 1b60c540505c8964d488b61b63568103
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1768
content:
"Climate change affects the epidemiology of climate-sensitive \r\ninfectious diseases in the region (high confidence). Examples \r\nare the effects of warming temperatures on increasing the suitability \r\nof transmission of vector-borne diseases, including endemic and \r\nemerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya \r\nand Zika (medium confidence). The reproduction potential for the \r\ntransmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the \r\nperiod 1950-1954 to 2016-2021, depending on the sub-region, as a \r\nresult of changes in temperature and precipitation (high confidence). \r\n{12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, Table 12.1}"


id: af772ac844b397ff876bb77fa4483cdb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25122
content:
"Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region, such as coral reefs, \r\nestuaries, salt marshes, mangroves and sandy beaches, are \r\nhighly sensitive and negatively impacted by climate change and \r\nderived hazards (high confidence). Observed impacts include the \r\nreduction in coral abundance, density and cover in Central America \r\n(CA), northwestern South America (NWS) and northeastern South \r\nAmerica (NES) and an increasing number of coral bleaching events \r\nin CA and NES; other observed impacts are changes in the plankton \r\ncommunity and in ocean and coastal food web structures, loss of \r\nvegetated wetlands and changes in macrobenthic communities in CA, \r\nNWS, northern South America (NSA) and southeastern South America \r\n(SES). {12.3, 12.5.2, Figure 12.8, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3}"


id: 1e53dfc9d40198c7b35af7a07fbed311
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2211
content:
"The Andes, northeastern Brazil and the northern countries in \r\nCA are among the more sensitive regions to climatic-related \r\nmigrations and displacements, a phenomenon that has increased \r\nsince AR5 (high confidence). Climatic drivers interact with social, \r\npolitical, geopolitical and economic drivers; the most common climatic \r\ndrivers for migration and displacements are droughts, tropical storms "


id: 2daec42cc0cc5c82f1e0f2a7600a87d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4624
content:
"their location and the proper supply of basic urban services and \r\ntransport (high confidence). The adoption of nature-based solutions \r\n(e.g., urban agriculture and river restoration) and hybrid (grey-green) \r\ninfrastructure is still in the early stages, with weak connections to \r\npoverty and inequality reduction strategies (medium confidence). \r\nFocusing on risk reduction encompasses upgrading informal and \r\nprecarious settlements, built environments and housing conditions, \r\nwhich offer an important but still limited contribution to urban \r\nadaptation (high confidence). {12.5.5, 12.5.7, 12.6.1}"


id: c6d76a849c9dd5b0e15ed9e7971caab6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28865
content:
"and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods (high confidence). {12.3.1.4, \r\n12.3.2.4, 12.3.3.4, 12.3.5.4, 12.5.8.4}"


id: e5662c99daef772eaf4dd8b6065d80f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33589
content:
"The impacts of climate change are not of equal scope for men \r\nand women (high confidence). Women, particularly the poorest, are \r\nmore vulnerable and are impacted in greater proportion. Often they \r\nhave less capacity to adapt, further widening structural gender gaps \r\n(high confidence). {12.3.7.3, 12.5.2.4, 12.5.2.5, 12.5.7.3, 12.5.8.1, \r\n12.5.8.3, 12.5.8.4}"


id: 63622d9d06c1ccf02cda264db03b0033
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13209
content:
"Adaptation initiatives for the health sector are mainly focused on \r\nthe development of climate services such as integrated climate\u0002health surveillance and observatories, forecasting climate\u0002related disasters and vulnerability maps (high confidence).\r\nClimate services for the health sector are largely focused on epidemic \r\nforecast tools and associated EWSs for vector-borne diseases and heat \r\nand cold waves. Political, institutional and financial barriers reduce \r\nthe feasibility of implementing these tools (high confidence). {12.5.6, \r\nTable 12.9, Table 12.11}"


id: d543884fb2a80103e8671fbcf1bbc83f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31083
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation is the most common adaptation \r\nstrategy for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (high \r\nconfidence). There is a focus on the protection of native terrestrial \r\nvegetation through the implementation of protected areas and payment \r\nfor ecosystem services (PES), especially those related to water provision. \r\nThe adaptation measures in place, however, are insufficient to safeguard \r\nterrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the CSA from the negative \r\nimpacts of climate change (high confidence). {12.5.1, 12.5.3, 12.6}"


id: 64280cf335c82d9a54360b54f161ae2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13324
content:
"Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) are crucial \r\nfor the adaptation and resilience of social-ecological systems \r\n(high confidence). IKLK can contribute to reducing the vulnerability \r\nof local communities to climate change (medium confidence). {12.5.1, \r\n12.5.8, 12.6.2}"


id: de43f068b51e877324f05dc146c8ce73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32457
content:
"Adaptation initiatives in ocean and coastal ecosystems mainly \r\nfocus on conservation, protection and restoration) (high \r\nconfidence). The main adaptation measures are ocean zoning, the \r\nprohibition of productive activities (e.g., fisheries, aquaculture, mining \r\nand tourism) on marine ecosystems, the improvement of research and \r\neducation programmes and the creation of specific national policies \r\n(high confidence). {12.5.2}"


id: 572b0e5e833f4690466f32aa4bafc94e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11200
content:
"Climate change is projected to convert existing risks in the \r\nregion into severe key risks (medium confidence). Key risks are \r\nassessed as follows: 1. Risk of food insecurity due to droughts; 2. Risk to \r\npeople and infrastructure due to floods and landslides; 3. Risk of water \r\ninsecurity due to declining snow cover, shrinking glaciers and rainfall \r\nvariability; 4. Risk of increasing epidemics, particularly of vector-borne \r\ndiseases; 5. Cascading risks surpassing public service systems; 6. Risk \r\nof large-scale changes and biome shifts in the Amazon; 7. Risks to \r\ncoral reef ecosystems; and 8. Risks to coastal socioecological systems \r\ndue to sea level rise (SLR), storm surges and coastal erosion. {12.3, \r\n12.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}"


id: 8ee66a3f48e8da811b906da1d3841292
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20012
content:
"Adaptive water management has mainly centred on enhancing \r\nthe quantity and quality of water supply, including large \r\ninfrastructure projects, which, however, are often contested \r\nand can exacerbate water-related conflicts (high confidence).\r\nInclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities and \r\napproaches including nature-based solutions, such as wetland \r\nrestoration and water storage and infiltration infrastructure, with \r\nsynergies for ecosystem conservation and disaster risk reduction, have \r\nbeen found to be more successful for adaptation and sustainable \r\ndevelopment (high confidence). {12.5.3, 12.6.1, 12.6.3}"


id: f12fcc17bb09bd6be1f90aea04a2cd12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35449
content:
"Impacts on rural livelihoods and food security, particularly for \r\nsmall and medium-sized farmers and Indigenous peoples in \r\nthe mountains, are projected to worsen, including the overall \r\nreduction of agricultural production, suitable farming area and \r\nwater availability (high confidence). Projected yield reductions \r\nby 2050 under the A2 scenario are as follows: beans 19%, maize \r\n4-21%, rice 23% in CA with seasonal droughts projected to lengthen, \r\nintensify and increase in frequency. Small fisheries and farming of \r\nseafood will be negatively affected as El Nino Southern Oscillation \r\n(ENSO) events become more frequent and intense and ocean warming \r\nand acidification continues (medium confidence). {12.2, 12.3, 12.4, \r\nFigure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.4}"


id: e5804cf9445e4883d7f15f9595a8bff0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33614
content:
"Adaptation strategies for agricultural production are increasing \r\nin the region as a response to current and projected changes in \r\nclimate (high confidence). The main observed adaptation strategies \r\nin agriculture and forestry are soil and water management conservation, \r\ncrop diversification, climate-smart agriculture, early-warning systems \r\n(EWSs), upward shifting for plantations to avoid warming habitat \r\nand pests and improved management of pastures and livestock. \r\nAdaptation requires governance improvements and new strategies to \r\naddress the changing climate; nevertheless, barriers limiting adaptive \r\ncapacity persist such as lack of educational programmes for farmers, \r\nadequate knowledge of site-specific adaptation and institutional and \r\nfinancial constraints (high confidence). {12.5.4}"


id: 5a0127f4bc80450e3e122c37c318fc97
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11672
content:
"Extreme precipitation events, which result in floods, landslides \r\nand droughts, are projected to intensify in magnitude and \r\nfrequency due to climate change (medium confidence). Floods and \r\nlandslides pose a risk to life and infrastructure; a 1.5degC increase would "


id: e9ebab63f949f9333243b830ace602e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34305
content:
"Urban adaptation in the region includes solutions on regulation, \r\nplanning, urban water management and housing (high \r\nconfidence). Regulation, planning and control systems are central \r\ntools for reducing risk associated with the security of buildings and "


id: 808efbdae2ec491396301870581c1d45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17751
content:
"actors in policymaking and planning for adaptation generate positive \r\nsynergies and better results. Adaptation policies and programmes \r\nthat consider age, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity are more \r\nefficient because these factors determine vulnerability and potential \r\nbenefits of adaptation. Socioeconomic and political factors that \r\nprovide some level of safety and continuity of policies and actions \r\nare critical enablers of adaptation (high confidence). {12.5.1, 12.5.2, \r\n12.5.7, 12.5.8, 12.6.4}"


id: d7a8d712acf3e572edcf26442f7d7730
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31457
content:
"result in an increase of 100-200% in the population affected by floods \r\nin Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, 300% in Ecuador and 400% in Peru \r\n(medium confidence). {12.3, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.5}"


id: 7ca0464b9f32ed57f595bbfc5cbeae50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17206
content:
"Increasing water scarcity and competition over water are \r\nprojected (high confidence). Disruption in water flows will \r\nsignificantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands and \r\naffect farming communities, public health and energy production (high \r\nconfidence). {12.3, Figure 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11}"


id: e66ac94017d43bdd6be7b134f809d2f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33740
content:
"The knowledge and awareness of climate change as a threat \r\nhave been increasing since AR5 due to the increasing frequency \r\nand magnitude of extreme weather events in the region, \r\ninformation available and climate justice activism (high \r\nconfidence). Conflicts in which the direct biophysical impacts of \r\nclimate change play a major role can unleash protests and strengthen \r\nsocial movements (medium confidence). {12.5.8, 12.6.4}"


id: 5746209926e16e482b61341d7ebf4fbd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11220
content:
"In coming decades, endemic and emerging climate-sensitive \r\ninfectious diseases are projected to increase (medium \r\nconfidence). This can happen through expanded distribution of \r\nvectors, especially viral infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in \r\ntransition areas between urban and suburban, or rural settings, and \r\nupslope in the mountains (medium confidence). {12.3.2, 12.3.5, 12.3.7, \r\nFigure 12.5, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}"


id: 3229c1a7a7f34e3b1b430572cce23478
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5303
content:
"Research approaches that integrate IKLK systems with natural \r\nand social sciences have increased since AR5 (high confidence)\r\nand are helping to improve decision-making processes in the region, \r\nreduce maladaptation and foster transformational adaptation through \r\nthe integration with ecosystem-based adaptation and community\u0002based adaptation (high confidence). {12.5.1, 12.5.8, 12.6.2}"


id: 206b9b9772778656681a8cb10acd31be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2550
content:
"The positive feedback between climate change and land use \r\nchange, particularly deforestation, is projected to increase the \r\nthreat to the Amazon forest, resulting in the increase of fire \r\noccurrence, forest degradation (high confidence) and long-term \r\nloss of forest structure (medium confidence). The combined effect \r\nof both impacts will lead to a long-term decrease in carbon stocks \r\nin forest biomass, compromising Amazonia's role as a carbon sink, \r\nlargely conditioned on the forest's responses to elevated atmospheric \r\nCO2 (medium confidence). The southern portion of the Amazon has \r\nbecome a net carbon source to the atmosphere in the past decade \r\n(high confidence). {12.3.3, 12.3.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, \r\nTable SM12.5}"


id: 1d4441d4a857aaad3201f004691f4388
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2046
content:
"The most widely reported obstacle to adaptation in terrestrial, \r\nfreshwater, ocean and coastal ecosystems is financing (high \r\nconfidence). There is also a significant gap in identifying limits to \r\nadaptation and weak institutional capacity for implementation. This \r\nhinders the development of comprehensive adaptation programmes, \r\neven under adequate funding. {12.5.1, 12.5.2}"


id: 6e276d770d72f9b773630f7fd7897ee4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14948
content:
"The use of climate-smart agriculture technologies strengthening \r\nsynergies among productivity and mitigation is rising as an \r\nimportant adaptation strategy in the region (high confidence).\r\nPertinent information for farmers provided by climate information \r\nservices is facilitating the understanding of the role of climate \r\ncompared with other drivers in perceived productivity changes. Index \r\ninsurance builds resilience and contributes to adaptation by protecting \r\nfarmers' assets in the face of major climate shocks, by promoting \r\naccess to credit and by the adoption of improved farm technologies \r\nand practices. {12.5.4}"


id: fe67b7ed32aa46d51fb995eb0ee71426
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37566
content:
"Up to 85% of natural systems (plant and animal species, habitats \r\nand communities) evaluated in the literature for biodiversity \r\nhotspots in the region are projected to be negatively impacted \r\nby climate change (medium confidence). Available studies focus \r\nmainly on vertebrates and plants of the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado in \r\nBrazil and in CA, with a large knowledge gap on freshwater ecosystems \r\n{12.3, 12.5.1, CCP1}"


id: ba1c14687f2561b8b5c4eb637998a965
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26823
content:
"Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region will continue to \r\nbe highly impacted by climate change (high confidence). Coral \r\nreefs are projected to lose their habitat, change their distribution range \r\nand suffer more bleaching events driven by ocean warming. In the \r\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, \r\nby 2050, virtually every coral reef will experience at least one severe \r\nbleaching event per year (high confidence). Under all RCP scenarios of \r\nclimate change, there will be changes in the geographical distribution of \r\nmarine species and ocean and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, \r\nestuaries and rocky shores, as well as those species held in fisheries \r\n(medium confidence). {Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3, Table SM12.4}"


id: 89315881f2dfc83ec781b6ea1f16eff2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19123
content:
"Institutional instability, fragmented services and poor water \r\nmanagement, inadequate governance structures, insufficient \r\ndata and analysis of adaptation experience are barriers to \r\naddressing the water challenges in the region (high confidence).\r\n{12.5.3}"


id: e93b7744b7403ce74c9219f16b8993ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34214
content:
"Inequality, poverty and informality shaping cities in the region \r\nincrease vulnerability to climate change, while policies, plans \r\nor interventions addressing these social challenges with \r\ninclusive approaches represent opportunities for adaptation\r\n(high confidence). Initiatives to improve informal and precarious \r\nsettlement, guaranteeing access to land and decent housing, are \r\naligned with comprehensive adaptation policies that include the \r\ndevelopment and reduction of poverty, inequality and disaster risk \r\n(medium confidence). {12.5.5, 12.5.7}"


id: 31a92bc6747cf2e4d1ffb18606d24123
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5220
content:
"Policies and actions at multiple scales and the participation \r\nof actors from all social groups, including the most exposed \r\nand vulnerable populations, are critical elements for effective \r\nadaptation (high confidence). Engaging social movements and local "


id: 2f4893b643d423db5d4586b048ef832f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4858
content:
"Adaptation policies often address climate impact drivers, but seldom \r\ninclude the social and economic underpinnings of vulnerability. \r\nThis narrow scope limits adaptation results and compromises their \r\ncontinuity in the region (high confidence). In a context of unaddressed \r\nunderdevelopment, adaptation policies tackling poverty and inequality \r\nare marginal, underfunded and not clearly included at national, regional \r\nor urban levels. Dialogue and agreement that include multiple actors \r\nare mechanisms to acknowledge trade-offs and promote dynamic, \r\nsite-specific adaptation options (medium confidence). {12.5.7}"


id: ead8a45a1e0bf91b66e6fb90ef248117
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34454
content:
"CSA is divided into eight climatic sub-regions by Working Group (WG) \r\nI (Figure 12.1). Though the southern part of Mexico is included in the \r\nclimatic sub-region South Central America (SCA) for WGI, Mexico is \r\nassessed in Chapter 14 (North America). In this chapter, we refer to this \r\nsub-region as CA because it excludes southern Mexico. The climate\u0002change literature for the region occasionally includes Mexico, and in \r\nthose cases, our assessment makes reference to Latin America but \r\nwhen only southern Mexico is included, the term Mesoamerica is used. \r\nFigure  12.2 and Table  SM12.1 summarise relevant characteristics of \r\nthe sub-regions included in this chapter."


id: c7043d82398c22ffbaae4425933db64c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 28894
content:
"Poligon delineations represent the boundaries used \r\nfor the regional synthesis of historical trends and \r\nfuture climate change projections used in the \r\nAssessment Reports of the IPCC WGI."


id: da36c18835d85285a3c00d693e3ab84f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"* Different from the WGI South Central America (SCA) \r\nwhich includes the southern part of Mexico."


id: 72a797810a7438ed71962fdd6a732069
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 15655
content:
"Figure 12.1 |  Sub-regions included in CSA region. Note that the WGI climatic sub-region SCA corresponds to CA in this chapter, as southern Mexico is included in Chapter \r\n14. Small islands in the region are covered in Chapter 15 in more detail."


id: 40e326a2b510a2933159ba361d1bba45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 7596
content:
"Figure 12.2 |  Characterisation of the region. Population data from ISIMIP (2021) after Klein Goldewijk et al. (2017). Biodiversity expressed as marine and terrestrial species \r\nrichness adapted from Gagne et al. (2020). Land cover data from ESA (2018). Human Development Index (HDI) and its components from UNDP (2020). HDI and components for \r\nFrench Guiana from Global Data Lab (2020)."


id: 452164a9363965ec933e986f435663ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 8298
content:
"available in the literature at the sub-regional level, followed by the \r\nidentification of risks as a result of the interaction of those aspects. \r\nThis integrated sub-regional approach ensures a balance in the text, \r\nparticularly for countries that are usually underrepresented in the \r\nliterature but that show a high level of vulnerability and impacts, such \r\nas those observed in CA. The sectoral assessment of adaptation that \r\nfollows is useful for policymakers and implementers, usually focused \r\nand organised by sectors, government ministries or secretaries that can \r\neasily locate the relevant adaptation information for their particular \r\nsector. To ensure coherence in the chapter, a summary of the assessed "


id: b45d3e0d28e222e81f41934ec68b5094
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"The chapter is divided into two main sections. The first section follows \r\nan integrative approach in which hazards, exposure, vulnerability, \r\nimpacts and risks are discussed following the eight climatically \r\nhomogeneous sub-regions described in WGI AR6 (Figure  12.1). The \r\nsecond section assesses the implemented and proposed adaptation \r\npractices by sector; in doing so, it connects to the WGII AR6 cross\u0002chapter themes. The storyline is then a description of the hazards, \r\nexposure, vulnerability and impacts providing as much detail as is "


id: 997012f1a89f44a2b689f8bdf7bdfce1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"product in many CSA countries (SRCCL Chapter 3, Mirzabaev et al., \r\n2019). Distinguishing climate-induced changes from land use changes \r\nis challenging, but 5-6% of biomes in SA are expected to change by \r\n2100 due to climate change (SRCCL Chapter 4, Olsson et al., 2019)."


id: b142ea8c6fc4d6d61a78a44c7fefa653
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 25393
content:
"adaptation options by key risks is presented, followed by a feasibility \r\nassessment for some relevant adaptation options. The chapter closes \r\nwith case studies and a discussion of the knowledge gaps evidenced \r\nin the process of the assessment."


id: 92a212d2e7704822ab471d60b2c412b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 20586
content:
"Changes in weather and climatic patterns are negatively affecting \r\nhuman health in CSA, in part through the emergence of diseases in \r\npreviously non-endemic areas (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, Magrin et  al., \r\n2014). Projections of potential impacts of climate change on malaria \r\nconfirm that weather and climate are among the drivers of geographic \r\nrange, intensity of transmission, and seasonality; the changes of risk \r\nbecome more complex with additional warming (very high confidence) \r\n(SR15 Chapter 3, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). There is high confidence\r\nthat constraining the warming to 1.5degC would reduce risks for unique \r\nand threatened ecosystems safeguarding the services they provide \r\nfor livelihoods and sustainable development (food, water) in CA and \r\nAmazon (SR15 Chapter 5, Roy et al., 2018)."


id: c80c75efc74af3ecc41d8bf5cc3a89ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 29052
content:
"CSA shows increasing trends of climatic change and variability and \r\nextreme events severely impacting the region, exacerbating problems \r\nof rampant and persistent poverty, precarious health systems and \r\nwater and sanitation services, malnutrition and pollution. Inadequate \r\ngovernance and lack of participation escalates the vulnerability and \r\nrisk to climate variability and change in the region (high confidence) \r\n(WGII AR5 Chapter 27) (Magrin et al., 2014)."


id: d4b228df2bf0352e5d5049e6b976d942
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 30989
content:
"Increasing trends in precipitation had been observed in SES \r\n(Figure  12.1), in contrast to decreasing trends in CA and central\u0002southern Chile (high confidence) (WGII AR5 Chapter 27) (Magrin et al., \r\n2014). The frequency and intensity of droughts have increased in many \r\nparts of SA (IPCC, 2019c). Warming has been detected throughout CSA, \r\nexcept for a cooling trend reported for the ocean off the Chilean coast."


id: 3d64a353ecb399e691ae18bbfc50b17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 7018
content:
"Observed changes in streamflow and water availability affect vulnerable \r\nregions (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, Magrin et  al., 2014). Glacier mass \r\nchanges in the Andes in recent decades are among the most negative \r\nones worldwide (SROCC Chapter 2, Hock et al., 2019). This reduction \r\nhas modified the frequency, magnitude and location of related natural \r\nhazards, while the exposure of people and infrastructure has increased \r\nbecause of growing population, tourism and economic development \r\n(high confidence) (SROCC Chapter 2, Hock et al., 2019)."


id: 11d45bac9f5a1cdb995d58c16ca6aecb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 302
content:
"The negative impacts of climate change in the region are exacerbated \r\nby deforestation and land degradation attributed mainly to expansion \r\nand intensification of agriculture and cattle ranching, usually under \r\ninsecure-tenure land. This conversion of natural ecosystems is the main \r\ncause of biodiversity and ecosystem loss and is an important source \r\nof GHG emissions (high confidence) (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, Magrin \r\net al., 2014)."


id: 7e1ad0403ab3413dd169594c92c721b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 17409
content:
"There is a high confidence that heatwaves will increase in frequency, \r\nintensity and duration, becoming, under high emission scenarios, \r\nextremely long, over 60 d in duration in SA; the risk of wildfires will \r\nalso increase significantly in SA (SRCCL Chapter 2, Jia et al., 2019). \r\nThese processes are leading and will continue to lead to increased \r\ndesertification that will cost between 8% and 14% of gross agricultural "


id: 8303602b8fa316a827257438759db697
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18141
content:
"Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region already show important \r\nchanges due to climate change and global warming (SROCC Chapter \r\n5, Bindoff et al., 2019)."


id: 7e8384f8eaeb1d18674f2ce24f64ddb9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"by mid-century for the June July August (JJA) and September October \r\nNovember (SON) quarters, and a broader second peak is projected, \r\nconsistent with the future south displacement of the Intertropical \r\nConvergence Zone (ITCZ) (high confidence) (Fuentes-Franco et  al., \r\n2015; Hidalgo et al., 2017; Maurer et al., 2017; Imbach et al., 2018; \r\nNaumann et  al., 2018; Ribalaygua et  al., 2018; Corrales-Suastegui \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 6adb83ad5d82c01579bcbe32cf775e23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 14426
content:
"Adaptation to future climate change starts by reducing the \r\nvulnerability to the present climate considering the deficient welfare \r\nof people in the region. Generalising to the region cases of synergies \r\namong development, adaptation and mitigation planning requires a \r\ngovernance model where development needs, vulnerability reduction \r\nand adaptation strategies are intertwined (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, \r\nMagrin et al., 2014)."


id: 2b87d2fa0be21598b06c0f255278bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4286
content:
"Climate projections indicate a decrease in frequency of TCs in CA \r\naccompanied by an increased frequency of intense cyclones (WGI AR6 \r\nSection 12.4.4.3, Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: d0cfadc5cf2acac1ed32b9a01addd09b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Of the 47 million Central Americans in 2015, 40% lived in rural areas, \r\nwith Belize being the least urbanised (54% rural) and Costa Rica \r\nthe most (21% rural) (CELADE, 2019); 10.5  million lived in the Dry \r\nCorridor region, an area recently exposed to severe droughts that have \r\nresulted in 3.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance (FAO, \r\n2016a). Except in Belize and Panama, the majority of the countries' \r\npopulations--ranging from 56% in Honduras to 95% in El Salvador--\r\nwere exposed to two or more risks derived from natural extreme events, \r\naffecting between 57% and 96% of the GDP of the countries (UNISDR \r\nand CEPREDENAC, 2014). CA is one of the regions most exposed to \r\nclimatic phenomena; with long coastlines and lowland areas, the \r\nregion is repeatedly affected by drought, intense rains, cyclones and \r\nENSO events (high confidence) (ECLAC et al., 2015)."


id: f3b37a6143805b80f3e87106b6535b9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 35855
content:
"Since the mid-20th century, extreme warm temperatures have increased \r\nand extreme cold temperatures have decreased in the region (medium \r\nconfidence). The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation \r\nevents have increased, but droughts have mixed signals (low confidence) \r\n(WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Table 11.14, Table 11.15, Seneviratne et al., 2021). \r\nSpatially variable trends have been detected for the MSD timing, the \r\namount of rainy-season precipitation, the number of consecutive and \r\ntotal dry days and extreme wet events at the local scale since the \r\n1980s. At the regional scale, a positive trend in the duration, but not the \r\nmagnitude, of the MSD was found (Anderson et al., 2019)."


id: 7bfd6b148904b00d3f1787c3147e90d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Significant increases in tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates in the \r\nAtlantic basin, highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of \r\ninternal climate variations, have been observed (Bhatia et al., 2019). \r\nTCs contributed approximately 10% of the annual precipitation \r\n(Khouakhi et al., 2017). During the TC season more TC-driven events of \r\nextreme sea level exceed a 10-year return period (Muis et al., 2019)."


id: 757a1c7bd2692ffa5da2b4f73ba57086
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Large urban centres are located on mountains or away from the \r\nshore, with the notable exceptions of Panama City, Belmopan and \r\nManagua, capital cities housing around 3  million people. Urban \r\ndevelopment in the capital cities and suburbs has almost tripled in \r\nthe last 40  years, reaching population densities as high as 11,000 \r\ninhabitants/km2\r\n in Guatemala City and Tegucigalpa, with the spread \r\nof poor neighbourhoods in steep ravines and other marginal high-risk \r\nareas (Programa Estado de la Nacion - Estado de la Region, 2016)."


id: f5b61b30f89b8ff6f4716c12f2787e8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 36176
content:
"Massive heatwave events and increase in the frequency of warm \r\nextremes are projected at the end of the 21stcentury (high confidence). \r\nWhen comparing 2.0degC with 1.5degC of warming, the longest annual \r\nwarm wave is projected to increase more than 60 d (Taylor et al., 2018)."


id: 1bc9040e21c87f423b9b43ee64dbb189
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 1831
content:
"Climate change is exacerbating socioeconomic vulnerability in CA, a \r\nregion with high levels of socioeconomic, ethnic and gender inequality, \r\nhigh rates of child and maternal mortality and morbidity, high levels \r\nof malnutrition and inadequate access to food and drinking water \r\n(ECLAC et al., 2015). Disasters from adverse natural events exacerbate \r\nCA's economic vulnerability, accounting for substantial human and \r\neconomic losses (UNISDR and CEPREDENAC, 2014). Vulnerability \r\nin most sectors is considered high or very high (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 12.7)."


id: a9f41265d612c2ff014e454887d06442
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"General decrease in the magnitude of heavy precipitation extremes \r\n(Chou et al., 2014; Giorgi et al., 2014) (in 1.5degC projection) but increase \r\nin the frequency of extreme precipitation (R50mm) (Imbach et al., 2018) \r\nare projected for both 2degC and 4degC global warming level (GWL). Strong \r\ndeclines in mean daily rainfall are projected for July in Belize (Stennett\u0002Brown et al., 2017; WGI AR6 Table 11.14, Seneviratne et al., 2021) and \r\ndecreased rainfall through the year for all capital cities except Panama \r\nCity (medium confidence: limited evidence, high agreement) (Pinzon \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 53b0b0e6303be24ae6a9c3cd5e78a2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Approximately 40% of the CA population live in poverty. Guatemala \r\n(62%), Honduras (60%), Nicaragua (46%) and Belize (42%, 2009) \r\nhad the highest poverty rates in CSA in 2018 (ECLAC, 2019b; BCIE, \r\n2020). Rural poverty rates are higher--82% in Honduras and 77% \r\nin Guatemala in 2014--as is poverty among Indigenous Peoples, up \r\nto 79% in Guatemala. Rural poor are the most sensitive to climate \r\nextremes as their main economic activity is based on agriculture in \r\nvulnerable terrains (NU CEPAL, 2018). In 2014, all CA countries, except "


id: bebd4ac56325c4b809e3cbdf38ffa795
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27564
content:
"The main climate impact drivers like extreme heat, drought, relative \r\nSLR, coastal flooding, erosion, marine heatwaves, ocean aridity (high \r\nconfidence) and aridity, drought and wildfires will increase by mid\u0002century (medium confidence) (Figure  12.6, WGI AR6 Table  12.6, \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 6c0934c36280dc094dc8c5e667e553c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"for El Salvador (excluding Belize), had higher GINI coefficients (more \r\ninequality) than the average for Latin America (0.473), which in itself \r\nis the most unequal region in the world (ECLAC, 2019b); in 2018 the \r\nsituation remained similar, with El Salvador showing the lowest GINI \r\ncoefficient (40) and the remaining countries showing values higher \r\nthan the Latin American average (BCIE, 2020)."


id: 8a7fca45985519a1b5dbe434c6461d60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19327
content:
"The countries in the region are consistently ranked highest in the world \r\nby risk of being impacted by extreme events (high confidence). The \r\neconomic costs of climate-change impacts in 2010 were estimated as \r\nbeing from 2.9% of GDP for Guatemala to 7.7% for Belize (ECLAC \r\net  al., 2015). For the period 1992-2011, Honduras, Nicaragua and \r\nGuatemala were among the 10 most impacted countries in the world \r\nby extreme weather events (UNISDR and CEPREDENAC, 2014). The \r\nnumber of these events has increased 3% annually in the last 30 years \r\n(Barcena et al., 2020a)."


id: 2e4a2564e1791378c58b9473dcf9ba4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4720
content:
"Heat stress is another health concern in this already warm and humid \r\npart of the world (high confidence) (Table  12.2); it is an increasing \r\noccupational health hazard with potential impacts on kidney disease \r\n(Sheffield et  al., 2013; Dally et  al., 2018; Johnson et  al., 2019). SLR \r\nexacerbating wave-driven flooding is expected to impact infrastructure \r\nand freshwater availability in small islands and atolls off the coast \r\nof Belize (Storlazzi et  al., 2018). Observed and expected impacts in \r\nthe coastal and ocean ecosystems of the sub-region are described in \r\nFigure 12.9."


id: 3ab2052f3c9527b893c9a6cefc6fc8ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6604
content:
"Human and economic losses, changing water availability and \r\nincreasing food insecurity are the most studied impacts of climate \r\nchange in CA (Figure 12.9) (Harvey et al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r\n2019). Hydro-meteorological events, such as storm surges and TCs, are \r\nthe most frequent extreme events and have the highest impact (high \r\nconfidence) (Reyer et al., 2017). From 2005 to 2014, the cumulative \r\nimpacts were over 3410 people dead, hundreds of thousands \r\ndisplaced and damages estimated around USD 5.8  billion (Ishizawa \r\nand Miranda, 2016). One standard deviation in the intensity of a \r\nhurricane windstorm leads to a decrease in both the growth of total \r\nGDP per capita (0.9% to 1.6%) and total income and labour income by \r\n3%, whereas it increases moderate and extreme poverty by 1.5% in CA \r\n(Ishizawa and Miranda, 2016)."


id: 2e6004872e047e034072bfb8cd8567be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Decreasing water availability is another impact of climate change \r\n(high confidence). Under a climate-change scenario of 3.5degC warming \r\nand a 30% reduction in rainfall, a reduction in the production and \r\nexport of crops and livestock is projected, affecting the wages and \r\ndecreasing the GDP of Guatemala by 1.2%, thereby increasing food \r\ninsecurity (Vargas et al., 2018b). By 2100, water availability per capita \r\nis projected to decrease 82% and 90% on average for the region under \r\nB2 (low emissions) and A2 (high emissions) scenarios respectively \r\n(Figure 12.3) (CEPAL, 2010)."


id: 1d80e13bd4c80d42ea9280a1e1dd804a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2083
content:
"The extent and quality of suitable areas for basic grains are expected to \r\ncontract (high confidence). The suitable area for maize will experience "


id: 8d0d54bd1228c709d39d4076704aa378
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Aridity index models show that the dry, sub-humid vegetation of the \r\ndry corridor will expand to neighbouring areas and replace the humid \r\nforests in the Pacific lowlands and the northern parts of Guatemala by \r\n2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (Pons et al., 2018; CEPAL \r\nand CAC-SICA, 2020). A warming of 3degC would shrink the tropical \r\nrainforest and replace it with savannah grassland. Wetlands are also \r\nexpected to be highly affected by climate change in the region (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al., 2019)."


id: eaf85284165d08eadd5ed062f5d99739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34475
content:
"Significant increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and \r\nsignificant decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes \r\n(Dereczynski et  al., 2020; Dunn et  al., 2020) were likely2\r\n observed \r\n(Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 11.13) (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 5d0893eebc6501f821f816bba588ac19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12153
content:
"Mesoamerica, a biodiversity hotspot spanning across CA and southern \r\nMexico, is a global priority for terrestrial biodiversity conservation, and \r\nit is projected to be negatively impacted by climate change, especially \r\nthrough the contraction of distribution of native species as the area \r\nbecomes increasingly dryer (high confidence) (Section CCP1.2.2) \r\n(Feeley et al., 2013; Manes et al., 2021). A significant reduction in net \r\nprimary productivity in tropical forests is expected under both RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5 as a result of temperature increase, precipitation reduction \r\nand droughts (Lyra et al., 2017; Castro et al., 2018; Stan et al., 2020). "


id: 8ffb6bfd678a4481efef2fab7da4110
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20179
content:
"Insufficient data coverage and trends in available data are generally \r\nnot significant for heavy precipitation (low confidence) (Dereczynski \r\net al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020; Sun et al., 2021) (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 \r\nTable 11.14) (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 822a515b1400db0510c9a2bb4a5029cb
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content:
"storms, floods, landslides, heat and cold waves and extreme SLR \r\n(Ashok et  al., 2007; Reguero et  al., 2015; Wang et  al., 2017b; Muis \r\net al., 2018; Rodriguez-Morata et al., 2018; Rodriguez-Morata et al., \r\n2019; Cai et  al., 2020). There is medium confidence that extreme \r\nENSO will increase long after 1.5degC warming stabilisation according \r\nto CMIP5 (Cai et al., 2015, 2018; Wang et al., 2017b). It is very likely\r\nthat ENSO rainfall variability, used for defining extreme El Nino and \r\nLa Nina, will increase significantly, regardless of amplitude changes in \r\nENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability, by the second half of \r\nthe 21st century in scenarios SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 (WGI \r\nAR6 Chapter 4) (Lee et al., 2021)."


id: 31bf66b0cab437022e7dcbfc6d32c31d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 5237
content:
"Local economies reliant on limited and specialised resources, highly \r\ndependent on ecosystem services such as water and soil fertility, \r\nsuch as alpaca and llama herders or small-scale fishers, are among \r\nthe more vulnerable (very high confidence) (Hollowed et  al., 2013; \r\nPostigo, 2013; Glynn et al., 2017; Duchicela et al., 2019), along with the \r\nagricultural sector in the face of extreme events (Coayla and Culqui, \r\n2020). Their vulnerabilities increase as a result of unequal chains of \r\nvalue, incomplete transfers of technology and other socioeconomic \r\nand environmental drivers (high confidence) (Ariza-Montobbio and \r\nCuvi, 2020; Gutierrez et al., 2020)."


id: bcf9abddb9a413d1c0077b8f74cbb1b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27293
content:
"Informal housing and settlements, usually located in areas exposed \r\nto the highest level of risk, exacerbates vulnerability (very high \r\nconfidence) (Miranda Sara and Baud, 2014; Cuvi, 2015; Miranda \r\nSara et al., 2016). The absence of proper drainage systems in urban \r\nareas increases this vulnerability, especially to floods. Most cities and \r\ninfrastructure are considered highly vulnerable to climate change (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 12.7)."


id: 98063637cb151bc08f77403ffb3618c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 21429
content:
"Regions dependent on glacier runoff are particularly vulnerable \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014; Mark et al., 2017; Polk et al., 2017). \r\nAlso biodiversity and water-dependent activities where seasonality \r\nand rainfall patterns are changing and where other non-climatic \r\nsources of change, such as land use, affect the capacity of ecosystems \r\nto provide hydrological services (very high confidence) (Cerron et al., \r\n2019; Molina et al., 2020). The countries in this sub-region (Colombia, \r\nEcuador and Peru) are among the most vulnerable in terms of well\u0002being and health (Figure 12.7; Nagy et al., 2018)."


id: 9e8f4317089bcac00249fecedbde4e3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 22483
content:
"There is high confidence that coastal lowlands are exposed to SLR in \r\nthe form of coastal flooding and erosion, subsidence and saltwater \r\nintrusion (Hoyos et al., 2013). Those hazards can affect settlements, \r\nports, industries and other infrastructures. Mangrove and aquaculture \r\nareas are among the most exposed systems (Gorman, 2018). The \r\nEastern Tropical Pacific, particularly Sector Nino 3.4, will see the worst \r\nincrease in SST, affecting industrial and small-scale fisheries (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Castrejon and Defeo, 2015; Reguero et  al., 2015; \r\nEddy et al., 2019; Bertrand et al., 2020; Castrejon and Charles, 2020; \r\nEscobar-Camacho et al., 2021)."


id: 7531e6900d9d997e3666425fccc8ae14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
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vector_id: 16034
content:
"An increase in the frequency of climate-related disasters has been \r\nreported (high confidence) (Huggel et al., 2015a; Staubli et al., 2018) \r\n(WGI AR6 Chapter 12) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Scale studies indicate \r\nan increase of flood risk during the 21st century, consistent with \r\nmore frequent floods, with the risk being worse in higher emission \r\nscenarios (high confidence) (Arnell and Gosling, 2013; Hirabayashi \r\net al., 2013; Alfieri et al., 2017; WGI AR6 Chapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021). Those living on riverbanks and in slums built on steep slopes \r\nare among the most affected by floods of all kinds (high confidence) \r\n(Emmer et al., 2016; Emmer, 2017). There is still uncertainty in relation \r\nto future drought intensity and frequency (Pabon-Caicedo et al., 2020)."


id: 4306b632b948d84d3cd5d74998ff4ad3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 7940
content:
"Settlements and agriculture on different scales and hydroelectric \r\ninfrastructures, especially near big rivers or in plains, are exposed to \r\nfloods. Exposure and vulnerabilities to precipitation, overflows and \r\nrelated landslides are increasing (Briones-Estebanez and Ebecken, \r\n2017)."


id: 2ec9665b2b5c2b5cc4ab9b19b1925b91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 4798
content:
"Increased SST, coupled with stronger ENSO events, will affect marine \r\nlife and fisheries by loss of productive habitat, disruption of nutrient \r\nstructure, productivity and alteration of species migration patterns, \r\nleading to changes in fishing rates, which will impact coastal \r\nlivelihoods (high confidence) (Bayer et al., 2014; Cai et al., 2015; Ding \r\net  al., 2017; Mariano Gutierrez et  al., 2017; Bertrand et  al., 2020). \r\nFigure 12.8 shows other observed sensitivities in several ecosystems \r\nand in such places as the Galapagos and Malpelo islands and coastal \r\neconomic exclusion zones (EEZs)."


id: be6aa967ba1558fdf901bbca5e9ebdfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 27507
content:
"The Andean piedmont (500-1200 metres above sea level [MASL]) \r\necosystems and crops and elevation ranges above the treeline are \r\nmore exposed to thermal anomalies (very high confidence) (Urrutia \r\nand Vuille, 2009; Vuille et al., 2015; Aguilar-Lome et al., 2019; Pabon\u0002Caicedo et  al., 2020). Temperature rise, combined with precipitation \r\nand floods, leaves people more exposed to epidemics (very high \r\nconfidence) (Stewart-Ibarra and Lowe, 2013; Sippy et  al., 2019; \r\nPetrova et al., 2020). A more significant exposure is related to lower \r\nsocioeconomic conditions, poor health and marginalisation (Oliver\u0002Smith, 2014)."


id: 22822bdcad918bb20324da6b03d7d580
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 2879
content:
"and transport of sediments have been noticed in riparian agriculture \r\nand biodiversity (high confidence) (Maeda et al., 2015; Espinoza et al., \r\n2016; Vauchel et  al., 2017; Ronchail et  al., 2018; Ayes Rivera et  al., \r\n2019; Armijos et al., 2020; Figueroa et al., 2020; Pabon-Caicedo et al., \r\n2020). Changes in seasonality and rain patterns are affecting coffee \r\nproducers (Lambert and Eise, 2020)."


id: 2a81777dabb63def2f11633753444609
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 4115
content:
"Figure 12.4 |  Change in average number of months in a given year suitable \r\nfor malaria transmission by Plasmodium falciparum, from 1950-1959 to \r\n2010-2019. The threshold-based model used incorporates precipitation accumulation, \r\naverage temperature and relative humidity (Grover-Kopec et al., 2006; Romanello et al., \r\n2021)."


id: c5178c83e3299de591ccfc3bbf337726
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 28587
content:
"will continue to impact several activities, including small-scale fishery \r\ninfrastructure (very high confidence). In Peru alone, wet extremes are \r\nestimated to be at least 1.5 times more likely to happen compared to \r\npre-industrial times. The extremely wet ENSO event of 2017 resulted \r\nin 6-9  billion USD in monetary losses in that country, 1.7  million \r\ninhabitants affected and crops, roads, bridges, homes, schools and \r\nhealth service facilities damaged or destroyed. Distinct types of ENSO \r\nevents can have differentiated impacts (French and Mechler, 2017; \r\nChristidis et al., 2019; Takahashi and Martinez, 2019; Bertrand et al., \r\n2020; Coayla and Culqui, 2020)."


id: 229e2d033faa591174bf0e0c48a19479
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2901
content:
"Accelerated warming is reducing tropical glaciers. Glacier volume loss \r\nand permafrost thawing will continue in all scenarios (high confidence) \r\n(Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). On average, the tropical Andes have lost \r\nabout 30% and more of their area since the 1980s (Basantes-Serrano \r\net al., 2016; Mark et al., 2017; Thompson et al., 2017; Rabatel et al., \r\n2018; Vuille et al., 2018; Reinthaler et al., 2019a; Seehaus et al., 2019; \r\nMasiokas et al., 2020). In a low-emissions scenario, by the end of the \r\n21st century, Peru will lose about 50% of its present glacier surface, \r\nwhile in a high-emission scenario there will remain very small areas \r\nof only about 3-5% on the highest peaks (Schauwecker et al., 2017)."


id: bdd142e6cb7e7c3eb91c580ee40f9d51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27422
content:
"Irrigation, potable water, health and education infrastructures, as well \r\nas roads, bridges, cities and residential constructions, are frequently \r\ndamaged or destroyed by extreme precipitation events, which also \r\nimpact sediment transport, river erosion and annual discharge (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Martinez et al., 2017; Morera et al., 2017; Isla, 2018; \r\nRosales-Rueda, 2018; Salazar et  al., 2018; Puente-Sotomayor et  al., \r\n2021). The increasing variability of precipitation has compromised \r\nrainfed agriculture and power generation, particularly in the dry season \r\n(high confidence) (Bradley et al., 2006; Bury et al., 2013; Buytaert et al., \r\n2017; Carey et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018; Orlove et al., 2019). For the \r\nAmazon-Andes transition zone, the impacts of hydrological variability "


id: 4ec46af3bab27a73401fa7b32aa522c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9822
content:
"Changing glaciers, snow and permafrost (Figure 12.13), in synergy with \r\nland use change, have implications for the occurrence, frequency and \r\nmagnitude of derived floods and landslides (high confidence) (Huggel \r\net al., 2007; Iribarren Anacona et al., 2015; Emmer, 2017; Mark et al., \r\n2017), as well as for landscape transformation through lake formation \r\nor drying and for alterations in hydrological dynamics, with impacts \r\non water for human consumption, agriculture, industry, hydroelectric \r\ngeneration, carbon sequestration and biodiversity (high confidence) \r\n(Michelutti et al., 2015; Carrivick and Tweed, 2016; Kronenberg et al., \r\n2016; Emmer, 2017; Mark et al., 2017; Milner et al., 2017; Polk et al., "


id: 3609a082e340bd8f2b12c0b322434781
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5905
content:
"2017; Reyer et al., 2017; Young et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018; Cuesta \r\net  al., 2019; Drenkhan et  al., 2019; Hock et  al., 2019; Motschmann \r\net al., 2020a)."


id: 9c48da52a63a5e480b6b9d48dcf45591
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
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vector_id: 22142
content:
"Species distribution is changing in dry lowland forests, where \r\ndeforestation is the more intense driver and climate change is intensely \r\nacting (Aguirre et  al., 2017; Manchego et  al., 2017). Extinctions in \r\namphibians have been related to temperature rises acting in synergy \r\nwith diseases (Catenazzi et  al., 2014). The fungus Batrachochytrium \r\ndendrobatidis successfully accompanied and caused disease in high\u0002elevation Andean frogs as they expanded their ranges to 5200-\r\n5400 m (Seimon et al., 2017). Several groups of freshwater species of \r\nthe tropical Andes represent 35% of threatened freshwater species in \r\nthe world (Gardner and Finlayson, 2018). Potential impacts of species \r\nturnover in key areas for biodiversity conservation have been identified \r\n(Cuesta et al., 2017b)."


id: 5f79271a6d60a90238998b8cea0a0d7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 12592
content:
"Climate-change-related hazards could foster rural poverty, and its \r\nimpacts have led to the modification of agriculture calendars and \r\nirrigation adjustments (Postigo, 2014). Livestock populations are \r\ndiminishing due to rising temperatures, changing water flows and \r\nshrinkage of pastures, particularly cattle and pig production (Bayer \r\net al., 2014; Tapasco et al., 2015; Bergmann et al., 2021). In some cases \r\nfarmers respond to extreme temperatures by increasing use of land and \r\ncrop intensity (Aragon et al., 2021). Climate change has prompted and \r\nwill continue to prompt internal and international migrations (Loken, \r\n2019; Bergmann et al., 2021). A change in fire regimes and fire risk is \r\nexpected in highland ecosystems, although it is difficult to determine \r\nthe influence of human activities and climate change influence on fire \r\npatterns (Oliveras et al., 2014, 2018; Armenteras et al., 2020)."


id: 58ac203c71add037c9284862e0611ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 11444
content:
"The upper limit of alpine vegetation (paramo) shifted upslope 500 m \r\nin the Chimborazo (Morueta-Holme et al., 2015), yet the upper forest \r\nlimit (the ecotone between forest and alpine vegetation) is migrating \r\nat slower rates or not at all (Harsch et  al., 2009; Rehm and Feeley, \r\n2015b), so it is expected to be a major barrier to migration to several \r\nmontane species, leading to population reductions and biodiversity \r\nlosses (Lutz et  al., 2013; Rehm and Feeley, 2015a). Shifts in tree \r\nspecies distribution may result in decreased above-ground carbon \r\nstocks and productivity in tropical mountain forests (high confidence) \r\n(Feeley et al., 2011; Duque et al., 2015; Fadrique et al., 2018; Duque \r\net al., 2021), a biomass loss that will only be partially offset through "


id: 4cff932476b959dd38b3b3bb1f257e35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 9537
content:
"A significant increase in the intensity and frequency of warm extremes \r\nand length of heatwaves and a decrease in the frequency of cold \r\nextremes (Skansi et al., 2013) were likely observed (Figure 12.6) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table 11.13) (Donat et al., 2013; Almeida et al., 2017; Seneviratne \r\net al., 2021). Precipitation showed increasing trends in annual and wet \r\nseason totals over the eastern part and decreasing trends in the dry \r\nseason (Almeida et al., 2017). An increase in the frequency of anomalous \r\nsevere floods (Gloor et al., 2015) was observed, but insufficient data \r\ncoverage for extreme precipitation and trends in the available data "


id: 3188a966489c98b1e82b263c272b8421
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5205
content:
"result in low confidence (Avila-Diaz et  al., 2020; Dereczynski et  al., \r\n2020; Dunn et  al., 2020; Sun et  al., 2021) (WGI AR6 Table  11.14) \r\n(Seneviratne et al., 2021). Droughts presented mixed trends between \r\nsub-regions, but evidence indicates an increasing length of dry periods \r\n(low confidence) (WGI AR6 Tables 11.15 and 12.3) (Skansi et al., 2013; \r\nMarengo and Espinoza, 2016; Spinoni et al., 2019; Avila-Diaz et al., \r\n2020; Dereczynski et al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020; Seneviratne et al., \r\n2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 77662f0bb69f0e0a53ed1dfbb5544c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 16345
content:
"exposure levels (Mansur et al., 2016). In this context, 41% of the total \r\npopulation of urban centres of the Amazon delta and estuary (ADE) \r\nare exposed to flooding (Mansur et  al., 2016), while in Santarem, \r\npopulation and infrastructure are highly exposed to floods and flash \r\nfloods (Andrade and Szlafsztein, 2018)."


id: 493e6a06fce04d5d2c10e030fdc7b5f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8913
content:
"Exposure of the Brazilian Amazon to severe to extreme drought has \r\nincreased from 8% in 2004/2005 to 16% in 2009/2010 and 16% in \r\n2015/2016 (Anderson et  al., 2018b); a similar trend is reported in \r\nother regions (Table 12.3). During the extreme drought of 2015/2016 \r\nin the Amazonian forests, 10% or more of the area showed negative \r\nanomalies of the minimum cumulative water deficit (Anderson et al., \r\n2018b). This extreme drought also caused an increase in the occurrence \r\nand spread of fires in the basin (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Aragao et al., 2018; Lima et al., 2018; Silva Junior \r\net  al., 2019; Bilbao et  al., 2020). Exposure to anomalous fires in \r\necosystems such as savannahs, which are more fire-prone, increases \r\nthe exposure and vulnerability of adjacent forest ecosystems not \r\nadapted to fire, such as seasonally flooded forests (Bilbao et al., 2020; \r\nFlores and Holmgren, 2021)."


id: 4cd5af7847a53b4b207952d83689bb55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9513
content:
"An overall increase in temperature by the end of the century is \r\nprojected for all seasons, from 2degC to 6degC depending on the scenario \r\n(Chou et al., 2014). Projections also suggest increases in the intensity \r\nand frequency of hot extremes and decreases in the intensity and \r\nfrequency of cold extremes (very likely for a 2degC GWL) (WGI AR6 \r\nTable 11.13) (Lopez-Franca et al., 2016; Seneviratne et al., 2021). In \r\nthe entire region, extreme maximum temperature estimates under \r\nthe RCP4.5 scenario are projected to increase. Major tropical cities \r\nare expected to be strongly affected by heatwaves and daily record \r\ntemperatures (Feron et al., 2019)."


id: d334c321941907c4d384777a1ff11afb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30755
content:
"A decrease in precipitation over the tropical region but regional \r\nchanges, such as increases in rainfall amounts in western NSA of up to \r\n40 mm, are expected by mid-century under RCP8.5 (Teichmann et al., \r\n2013; Sanchez et al., 2015). Changes in the dry season in the central \r\npart of South America (SA) due to the late onset and late retreat of \r\nmonsoon, decreases in precipitation over the Amazon and central Brazil \r\nare expected (Coppola et al., 2014; Giorgi et al., 2014; Llopart et al., \r\n2014). Further, an increase in the frequency and geographic extent of \r\nmeteorological drought in the eastern Amazon and the opposite in \r\nthe west are expected with medium confidence (Duffy et al., 2015). \r\nA decrease in the total annual precipitation but an increase in heavy \r\nprecipitation (Seiler et al., 2013; Chou et al., 2014) are projected for a \r\n2degC GWL (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 11.15) (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 38288467eee5865489e869ca85092320
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6206
content:
"NSA is one of the most vulnerable sub-regions in the region, after CA, \r\nas evidenced by its very high vulnerability in four of the six sectors \r\nassessed (Figure 12.7). The LECZ of Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname \r\nare highly vulnerable to climate change due to SLR (high confidence) \r\n(CAF, 2014; Mycoo, 2014; Reguero et al., 2015; Villamizar et al., 2017; \r\nNagy et al., 2019). In Guyana, the combined effect of increased rainfall \r\nintensity and SLR has caused flooding over the past two decades, \r\nincreasing the vulnerability of the agricultural sector (Tomby and \r\nZhang, 2019)."


id: b7ee41116f4c79d9376f25e340ff5378
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26471
content:
"The unprecedented extreme events of floods (2009, 2012 and 2014) \r\nand drought (2010) in the Amazon basin led to increased societal \r\nvulnerability (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Mansur et  al., 2016; Debortoli et  al., 2017; Marengo et  al., 2018; \r\nMenezes et al., 2018). The disruption of the region's natural hydrology \r\ndynamics as a consequence of extreme events increases the sensitivity \r\nof the food and transport systems of the Indigenous Peoples and rural \r\nresource-dependent communities (Pinho et al., 2015)."


id: 9358b39a2c9600b6af7f8bee8ed0150d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20698
content:
"Mean precipitation will decrease, and heavy precipitation, aridity and \r\ndrought are projected to increase with medium confidence, whereas \r\nmean temperature, extreme heat, fire weather and coastal and oceanic \r\nclimate impact drivers will all increase with high confidence (WGI AR6 \r\nTable 12.6 and Figure 12.8) (Sun et al., 2019; Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: c5ee97014e2ebb6721ba98f2b7abaf2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28716
content:
"In NSA the percentage of the national population living in low elevation \r\ncoastal zones (LECZs) and exposed to SLR is 68% for Suriname, 56% for \r\nGuyana and 6% for Venezuela (Nagy et al., 2019). In these countries, \r\nthe exposure of populations, land areas and built capital to coastal \r\nfloods is projected to continue and increase (Neumann et al., 2015; \r\nReguero et al., 2015)."


id: e4fc4d6c7edd93f569f5466d946b9262
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 33518
content:
"In the Amazon basin, approximately 80% of the population is \r\nconcentrated in cities due to migrations in search of improvements \r\nin education, job opportunities, health and goods and services (Eloy \r\net al., 2015; Pinho et al., 2015). These populations settle in areas prone \r\nto flooding combined with various levels of sanitation due to limited \r\neconomic access to areas of lower risk (Pinho et  al., 2015; Mansur \r\net al., 2016; Andrade and Szlafsztein, 2018; Parry et al., 2018). In these \r\nareas, poor urban planning and high population densities increase "


id: 8b23de91632df6906ad16d1796890ba9
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vector_id: 19418
content:
"et  al., 2016. Overfishing, deforestation and dam construction are a \r\nthreat to fishing in the sub-region (Lopes et al., 2019) and therefore \r\ncontribute to exacerbating the impacts of climate change. Small-scale \r\nagriculture practices (e.g., floodplain agriculture and slash and burn) \r\nare highly coupled with natural hydrological cycles and therefore \r\nseverely affected by extreme events (Figure 12.9) (Cochran et  al., \r\n2016). Livelihoods are also impacted by disruptions in land and river \r\ntransport, restrictions in drinking water access, increased incidence \r\nof forest fires and disease outbreaks (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Figure 12.9) (Marengo et al., 2013; Pinho \r\net al., 2015; Marengo and Espinoza, 2016; Marengo et al., 2018). In \r\naddition, flood events have caused losses of homes and disruption of \r\npublic and commercial services (Figure 12.9) (Parry et al., 2018)."


id: d47350e0660291accae7cc9b457cb634
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"of literature showing that resource-dependent communities located in \r\nremote areas address climate anomalies by reducing the vulnerability \r\nof socioecological systems through IKLK (high confidence) (Mistry \r\net al., 2016; Vogt et al., 2016; Bilbao et al., 2019, 2020; Camico et al., \r\n2021)."


id: b1f36b8aff59e9ab79316229a068809b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"Amazonian forests constitute one of the major carbon (C) sinks on \r\nEarth (Pan et al., 2011), playing a pivotal role in the climate system and \r\nregional balance of C and water (Marengo et al., 2018; Molina et al., \r\n2019). Deforestation, temperature increase and any factor affecting \r\nforest ecosystem dynamics will have an impact on atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentrations and, hence, on the global climate (Ruiz-Vasquez et al., \r\n2020; Sullivan et al., 2020).There is robust scientific evidence of the \r\nhigh vulnerability of Amazon rainforests to increasing temperature \r\nand repeated extreme drought events (high confidence) (Figure 12.7) \r\n(Brienen et al., 2015; Olivares et al., 2015; Feldpausch et al., 2016; Zhao \r\net al., 2017; Anderson et al., 2018b; Anjos and De Toledo, 2018; Yang \r\net al., 2018; Barkhordarian et al., 2019; Sampaio et al., 2019; Rammig, \r\n2020; Sullivan et al., 2020)."


id: 870b29218fdd8691161fea7035889329
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Suriname has experienced coastal erosion and flooding, which \r\ncauses damage to infrastructure, agriculture and ecosystems, while \r\nGeorgetown has suffered a significant number of floods (CAF, 2014). \r\nIn Guyana, coastal flooding has negatively impacted agricultural \r\nactivity (Tomby and Zhang, 2018) (Figure 12.9). Sugarcane production \r\nhas been one of the most impacted cash crops. The impact on sugar \r\nproduction has affected Guyana's sugar industry (Tomby and Zhang, \r\n2019). Among the main impacts observed in the sugar industry are an \r\nincrease in production costs, greater use of pesticides and fertilizers \r\nand a reduction in worker income (Tomby and Zhang, 2018)."


id: d21faeaf5080c927e93dc14bc2143a45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Indigenous Peoples and resource-dependent rural communities in the \r\nAmazon have been impacted over the last decade by extreme drought \r\nand flood events in various dimensions of their livelihoods (Pinho \r\net al., 2015). Food security has been strongly impacted since it is based \r\non fishing and small-scale agriculture, two sectors highly vulnerable \r\nto climate change. During extreme events, fishing decreases due to \r\nlimited access to fishing grounds (medium confidence: low evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Figure 12.9) (Pinho et al., 2015; Camacho Guerreiro "


id: 9f04403197aad9e73d3b9672955bb3a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 22561
content:
"Table 12.1 |  Environmental suitability for transmission of dengue by Aedes aegypti as modelled by the influence of temperature and rainfall on vectorial capacity and vector \r\nabundance; this is overlaid on human population density data to estimate the reproduction potential for these diseases (R0, expected number of secondary infections resulting from \r\none infected person). The southwestern South America (SWS) and southern South America (SSA) sub-regions are not presented because the vector is not abundant in these areas \r\nand the estimated R0 is lower than 0.01. Data were derived from Romanello et al. (2021)."


id: 627e4b345e6c04a500d5f3d8a08b2607
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Climate-change impacts have also been observed in the oceans, coastal \r\necosystems (coral reefs and mangroves), EEZs and saltmarshes in NSA; \r\nfurther impacts are expected in coral reefs, estuaries, mangroves and \r\nEEZs in the sub-region (Figure 12.9). Species in freshwater ecoregions \r\n(e.g., the Orinoco and Amazon Rivers and their flooded forests) are \r\npredicted to suffer a decrease in range and climatic suitability (medium \r\nconfidence: low evidence, high agreement) (Section CCP1.2.3; Manes \r\net al., 2021). A significant decrease in climate refugia (90%) for multiple \r\nvertebrate and plant species in the region has been projected for a 4degC \r\nscenario, with considerable benefits of mitigation and reducing risks to \r\n40% for a 2degC scenario (Warren et al., 2018)."


id: 5f84c75174cc7a9bd6f83e337ee8b577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 12599
content:
"linked to the agricultural production chain (high confidence) (Richards \r\net al., 2015). Such a development also came at considerable cost to \r\nthe environment (e.g., Neill et al. 2013) and the regional climate, even \r\nthough a moratorium implemented in 2006 on new soy plantations \r\non deforested areas reduced deforestation by a factor of five (high \r\nconfidence) (Macedo et  al., 2012; Kastens et  al., 2017). The same \r\nsort of supply chain interventions along with incentive-based public \r\npolicies applied to the beef supply chain could minimise the need for \r\nagricultural expansion in the SAM deforestation frontier (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Nepstad et al., 2014; \r\nPompeu et al., 2021)."


id: 56c7f975a49b7110137d5a437bdab80c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"capacity of 400,000 km2 of the forest (Anderson et  al., 2018b); \r\nnevertheless, there are considerable uncertainties regarding the \r\neffects of CO2 fertilisation in tropical forests and ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Sampaio et al., 2021). \r\nExtreme drought events increase forest vulnerability to fire, directly \r\naffecting the biodiversity and the forest structure and its plant species \r\ndistribution (high agreement) (Brando et al., 2014). Production sectors \r\nare also exposed. SAM is pointed out as a region where agricultural \r\nproduction will be especially impacted by climate change, affecting the \r\nproduction of annual crops, fruits and livestock (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Lapola et  al., 2014; Zilli et  al., \r\n2020)."


id: c5418e3f3137406f226a1d01988950d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"SAM has a low population density, and the majority of the population \r\nis located in cities. The populations of some of these cities are \r\nreported as being highly vulnerable considering the enormous social \r\ninequalities embedded in these cities (high confidence) (Filho et  al., \r\n2016). Inequalities and uneven access to infrastructure, housing and \r\nhealthcare increase populations' vulnerability to atmospheric pollution \r\nand drier conditions (high confidence) (Rodrigues et al., 2019; IPAM, \r\n2020; Machado-Silva et al., 2020)."


id: d5b13865843ba573a29a6435a70db60e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"The agriculture in the region is highly dependent on the climate (high \r\nconfidence), responsible for three-fourths of the variability in agricultural \r\nyields in the region (Table 12.4). Irrigation is an important strategy for \r\nagricultural production in part of the region, but it accounts for no \r\nmore than 8% of the total agricultural area in SA and 7% in CA (OECD \r\nand FAO, 2019). This practice faces potential impacts from reductions \r\nin surface water availability in future climate scenarios (Ribeiro Neto \r\net al., 2016; Zilli et al., 2020), enhanced by non-climate drivers such \r\nas land use changes (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Spera et  al., 2020). The remaining fluctuation in yields \r\nrelates to issues of infrastructure, market, economy, policy and social \r\naspects. Good infrastructure, transport logistics, quality of roads and \r\nstorage strongly influence the vulnerability of the agricultural sector \r\n(Figure 12.7)."


id: d6e48dd47976b012c9dcbc31ad826bb8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 31314
content:
"The observed impact on plant species in SAM is projected to worsen \r\nin a warmer world (Warszawski et al., 2013). An increasing dominance \r\nof drought-affiliated genera of tree species has been reported in the \r\nsouthern part of the Amazon rainforest in the last 30 years (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) (Esquivel-Muelbert \r\net al., 2019). Due to the tight relationship between drought and fire \r\noccurrence, an increase of 39% to 95% of burned area is modelled \r\nto impact the Cerrado region under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while under \r\nRCP2.6, a 22% overshoot in temperature is estimated to impact the \r\narea in 2050 decreasing to 11% overshoot by 2100 (Silva et al., 2019d), \r\nleading to a high impact on agricultural production (high confidence)."


id: 583db571a874beb530c522c2e9adf7b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The combined effects of extreme climate events and ecosystem \r\nfragmentation, for example, by deforestation or fire, lead to changes \r\nin forest structure, with the death of taller trees and reduction in \r\ndiversity of plant species, loss of productivity and carbon storage \r\n(high agreement) (Brando et al., 2014; Reis et al., 2018). The rise of \r\na large-scale soybean agroindustry in the early 2000s led to a faster \r\nincrease in human development indicators in some regions, tightly "


id: f1bbdfe1f5618d8df3cbaab2ace1d67e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 35546
content:
"SAM hosts the headwaters of important South American rivers, such as \r\nthe Paraguay, Madeira, Tocantins-Araguaia and Xingu. The impact from "


id: ef5b947c7c508133184d63eec43cdf3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"fire foci, were recently reported (robust evidence) (Lazaro et al., 2020; \r\nGarcia et al., 2021). The projected impacts of climate change will lead to \r\nprofound changes in the annual flood dynamics for Pantanal wetlands, \r\naltering ecosystem functioning and severely affecting biodiversity (high \r\nconfidence) (Thielen et al., 2020; Marengo et al., 2021)."


id: 6e043297505bdc30839e7a13eec104b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Table 12.2 |  Average change in mean number of days exposed to heatwaves (defined \r\nas a period of at least 2 d where both the daily minimum and maximum temperatures are \r\nabove the 95th percentile for their respective climatologies) in the over-65 population in \r\n2016-2020 relative to 1986-2005. Temperature data taken from the European Centre \r\nfor Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 data set; calculations were \r\nderived from Romanello et al. (2021)."


id: 8f7f7c8538a391c7ed584a9f50a7795c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20125
content:
"Soybean and corn yields in the Cerrado region will suffer one of \r\nthe strongest negative impacts under the estimates of the RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5 scenarios and will require high levels of investment in \r\nadaptation should they continue to be cultivated in the same areas \r\nas currently (high confidence) (Oliveira et  al., 2013; Camilo et  al., \r\n2018). Changes in precipitation patterns are related to reductions \r\nin agricultural productivity and revenues in the southern portion of \r\nthe Amazon region (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Costa et  al., 2019; Leite-Filho et  al., 2021). Thus, the \r\nfuture socioeconomic vigour of the region will be, to a large extent, \r\nconnected to an unlikely stability of the regional climate and eventual \r\nfluctuations of global markets potentially affecting the agricultural \r\nsupply chain (high confidence) (Nepstad et al., 2014)."


id: b43c44b7b863cc6e93032bb0f2ea694b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 25870
content:
"(Andrade et  al., 2017). Global-scale studies indicate an increase of \r\nflood risk for the SAM region during the 21st century (consistent with \r\nfloods that are more frequent) (high confidence) (Hirabayashi et al., \r\n2013; Arnell et al., 2016; Alfieri et al., 2017). Higher emission scenarios \r\nresult in substantially higher flood risks than low emission scenarios \r\n(Alfieri et al., 2017)."


id: c125c96005fc3f4e251f9f259c63c818
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 27968
content:
"NES is home to about 60 million people (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE \r\n[2020]]), with >70% living in urban areas (data for 2010 from IBGE \r\n[2020]; Silva et  al. [2017]) and high poverty levels (>50%, data for \r\n2003 fromIBGE [2020]]). People are exposed to intense drought and \r\nfamine (high confidence), and about 94% of the region has moderate \r\nto high susceptibility to desertification (Marengo and Bernasconi, \r\n2015; Spinoni et  al., 2015; Vieira et  al., 2015; Mariano et  al., 2018; \r\nTomasella et  al., 2018; Marengo et  al., 2020c). The most severe dry \r\nspell of 2012-2013 affected about 9 million people, who were exposed \r\nto water, food and energy scarcity (Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015)."


id: 2b1c62ee4cf128216b0f54f614aa7d5b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"The region has likely experienced an increase in temperature, with \r\nsignificant increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and \r\nsignificant decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes \r\n(Donat et al., 2013) (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 5a47a25d133f7b70c29d56419f2de33e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 11707
content:
"People, infrastructure and economic activities are exposed to SLR in \r\nthe 3800 km of coastline (medium confidence). The high concentration \r\nof cities on the coast is a concern (Martins et  al., 2017), with all \r\nstate capital cities but one on the coast, totalling almost 12 million \r\nvulnerable people (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE [2020]]). The ports \r\nof Sao Luis, Recife and Salvador are important exporters of Brazilian \r\ncommodities, and the beaches in the sub-region are an international \r\ntouristic destination, generating considerable revenues (Pegas et al., \r\n2015; Ribeiro et al., 2017)."


id: 1c2cafb48023eaa7048c6f3e06b6ca1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 1892
content:
"A decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation \r\nwas observed, but with low confidence, due to insufficient data \r\ncoverage and trends in available data being generally insignificant. An \r\nincrease in drought duration was observed with high confidence but \r\nmedium confidence with respect to the increase of drought intensity \r\n(WGI AR6 Table 11.14, Seneviratne et al., 2021). Table 12.3 shows the \r\nestimates of changes in land area per sub-region affected by drought \r\nevents; NES sub-region presented the highest changes in CSA."


id: ad738c17b481545f788848e5fa884608
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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content:
"Table 12.3 |  Change in percentage of land area affected by extreme drought in 2010-2019, in relation to 1950-1959 using Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index \r\n(SPEI); extreme drought is defined as SPEI <= -1.6 (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, 2021). Data were derived from Romanello et al. (2021)."


id: bd7f4dbf89231f5c4c5fcbe7960836b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27381
content:
"There is growing evidence of the impacts of climate change on human \r\nhealth in NES, mostly linked to food and water insecurity caused by \r\nrecurrent long droughts (e.g., gastroenteritis and hepatitis) (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 12.9) (Sena et al., 2014; de Souza Hacon et al., \r\n2019; Marengo et  al., 2019; Government of Brazil, 2020; Salvador \r\net al., 2020). From 2071 to 2099, thermal conditions in NES might \r\nimprove for vectors of dengue, chikungunya and Zika (de Souza \r\nHacon et al., 2019). Additionally, a high risk of mortality associated \r\nwith climatic stress in the period of 2071-2099 is expected in the \r\nSao Francisco river basin (de Oliveira et al., 2019; de Souza Hacon \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 50b9bf6ff0c354d8b58c2f4028c21d8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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"NES is the world's most densely populated semiarid land and its \r\npopulation is highly vulnerable to droughts (high confidence), which have \r\nwell-documented impacts on water and food security, human health and \r\nwell-being in the region (e.g., Confalonieri et al. 2014a; Marengo et al. \r\n2017; Bedran-Martins et al. 2018) (Figure 12.7). The region's relatively \r\nlow economic development and poor social and health indicators \r\nincrease vulnerability, especially that of poor farmers and traditional \r\ncommunities (Confalonieri et al., 2014a; Bech Gaivizzo et al., 2019). In \r\nstate capital cities, about 45% of the population live in poverty (data \r\nfor 2003 fromIBGE [2020]]), often in slums with already deficient water \r\nsupply and sewage systems and poor access to health and education. \r\nClimate change will increase pressures on water availability, threatening \r\nwater, energy and food security (Marengo et al., 2017)."


id: 75a1e53dc45db031006f563e9778b922
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"Natural systems in NES are also vulnerable (Figure 12.7). The Caatinga \r\nvegetation is particularly sensitive to variations in water availability \r\nand climate change (Seddon et al., 2016; Rito et al., 2017; Dantas et al., \r\n2020). It has already lost about 50% of its original vegetation cover \r\n(Souza et al., 2020), with only about 2% of the remaining vegetation \r\nwithin fully protected areas (CNUC and MMA, 2020). Caatinga's high \r\nvulnerability to climate change is further increased by the extensive \r\nconversion of native vegetation (high confidence) (Rito et al., 2017; \r\nSilva et al., 2019b, c)."


id: 69e0e9f62f32f508a7b0fb4078235ddd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14257
content:
"Studies with terrestrial animals show that habitat loss increases \r\nthe vulnerability of species to climate change (high confidence) (de \r\nOliveira et al., 2012; Arnan et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2018b). NES's \r\ncoral reefs have shown some resilience to bleaching, but vulnerability \r\nis intensified by the synergy between chronic heat stress caused by \r\nincreased SST (Teixeira et  al., 2019) and other well-documented \r\nstressors, such as coastal runoff, urban development, marine tourism, \r\noverexploitation of reef organisms and oil extraction (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 12.8) (Leao et al., 2016)."


id: 834e41c7a7130b6014141c3d0956efec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18181
content:
"An increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decrease \r\nin the intensity and frequency of cold extremes were observed with \r\nhigh confidence (Rusticucci et al., 2017; Wu and Polvani, 2017) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table 11.13) (Seneviratne et al., 2021). There is low confidence\r\nthat the decrease in hot extremes over SES is related to an increase in \r\nextreme precipitation (Wu and Polvani, 2017)."


id: 88ac82412143fac59553427ab5765635
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19032
content:
"Over SES most stations have registered an increase in annual rainfall, \r\nlargely attributable to changes in the warm season; this is one of \r\nfew sub-regions where a robust positive trend in precipitation and \r\nsignificant intensification of heavy precipitation have been detected \r\nsince the early 20th century (high confidence) but with medium \r\nconfidence in a reduction of hydrological droughts (Vera and Diaz, \r\n2015; Saurral et al., 2017; Lovino et al., 2018; Avila-Diaz et al., 2020; \r\nCarvalho, 2020; Dereczynski et al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020; Marengo \r\net al., 2020a; Olmo et al., 2020) (WGI AR6 Table 11.14) (Seneviratne \r\net al., 2021). A higher observed frequency of extratropical cyclones in \r\nthe region has been detected (Parise et al., 2009; Reboita et al., 2018) \r\nwith three cyclogenetic foci: south-southeastern Brazil, extreme south \r\nof Brazil and Uruguay, and southeastern Argentina."


id: 98c6262d520fbe4f2367a86eaeeff55c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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vector_id: 21552
content:
"In Montevideo, mean sea levels have increased over the past 20 years, \r\nreaching 11 cm from 1902 to 2016, and a recent accelerating trend \r\nhas been observed (Gutierrez et al., 2016b). A value of water level rise \r\nand its acceleration for Buenos Aires was calculated from a record of \r\nannual mean water levels obtained from hourly levels (1905-2003). \r\nAnnual mean water level showed a trend of +1.7 +- 0.05 mm yr-1 and \r\nan acceleration of +0.019 +- 0.005 mm yr-2 (D'Onofrio et al., 2008)."


id: a751bd3899a3278d6ec1183b334df386
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23838
content:
"Increasing trends in mean air temperature and extreme heat and \r\ndecreasing cold spells are projected (high confidence) (WGI AR6 \r\nTable 12.6) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). The increase in the frequency of \r\nwarm nights is larger than that projected for warm days, consistent with \r\nobserved past changes that have been related to changes in cloud cover \r\nthat affect daytime temperatures differently than nighttime temperatures \r\n(Lopez-Franca et al., 2016; Menendez et al., 2016; Feron et al., 2019)."


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vector_id: 36399
content:
"The sub-region presents a high frequency of occurrence of intense \r\nsevere convection events (Section 12.3.6.1). Because of this situation, \r\nstrong winds from the south or southeast and high water levels affect \r\nthe whole Argentine coast, as well as the River Plate shores, Uruguay \r\nand southern Brazil (Isla and Schnack, 2009). The coast of the River \r\nPlate is subject to flooding when there are strong winds from the \r\nsoutheast (sudestadas). As sea level rises as a result of global climate \r\nchange, storm surge floods will become more frequent in this densely \r\npopulated area, particularly in low-lying areas (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 12.8) (D'Onofrio et al., 2008; Nagy et al., 2014a; Santamaria\u0002Aguilar et  al., 2017; Nagy et  al., 2019 impacts and adaptation in \r\nCentral and South America coastal areas; Ceron et al., 2021)."


id: a5b5a94383b819b592819b35bc3f2404
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23640
content:
"Increases in mean precipitation (high confidence), pluvial floods and \r\nriver floods are projected (medium confidence) (Nunes et  al., 2018) \r\n(WGI AR6 Table 12.6) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Droughts in the River \r\nPlate basin will be more frequent in the medium term (2011-2040) \r\nand the distant future (2071-2100) (with respect to the 1979-2008 \r\nperiod), but also shorter and more severe, for the more extreme \r\nemission scenario (RCP8.5) (low confidence) (Carril et al., 2016)."


id: 8c636be99769cd6da7374cec7fbcd603
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19601
content:
"Negative trends in the annual number of cyclone events in the long term \r\nof 3.6% to 6.5% (2070-2098) are projected and showed an increase \r\nof 3% to 11% (2080-2100 for the A1B scenario) (Grieger et al., 2014; \r\nReboita et al., 2018). All coastal and oceanic climate impact drivers \r\n(relative sea level, coastal flood and erosion, marine heatwaves and \r\nocean aridity) are expected to increase by mid-century in the RCP8.5 \r\nscenario (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Table 12.6) (Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021)."


id: e8a34703ff53ada35a645cec6057c9c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34113
content:
"The region's natural systems are also exposed to climate change. \r\nThe SES region is home to two important biodiversity hotspots, with \r\nhigh levels of species endemism: the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest, \r\nwhere about 72% of Brazil's threatened species can be found (PBMC, \r\n2014)."


id: 7c8b510537149688409893ed1a89577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17192
content:
"The River Plate basin and the city of Buenos Aires are highly vulnerable \r\nto recurring floods, and the increasing number of newcomers to the \r\narea reduce the collective cultural adaptation developed by older \r\nneighbours (high confidence) (Barros, 2006; Nagy et al., 2019; Mettler\u0002Grove, 2020; Morales-Yokobori, 2021; Oyedotun and Ally, 2021). \r\nExtreme events, including storm surges and coastal inundation/\r\nflooding, cause injuries and economic/environmental losses on the \r\nurbanised coastline of Southern Brazil (States of Sao Paulo and Santa \r\nCatarina) (high confidence) (Muehe, 2010; Khalid et  al., 2020; Ohz \r\net al., 2020; de Souza and Ramos da Silva, 2021; Quadrado et al., 2021; \r\nSilva de Souza et al., 2021)."


id: f5beffae7c1e1958114a948411f7047
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36180
content:
"Warming temperatures have been implicated in the emergence of \r\ndengue in temperate latitudes, increasing populations of Aedes aegypti\r\n(high confidence) (Natiello et  al., 2008; Robert et  al., 2019, 2020; \r\nEstallo et al., 2020; Lopez et al., 2021) (Table 12.1), and field studies \r\nhave demonstrated the role of local climate in vector activity (Benitez \r\net al., 2021). Figure 12.5 shows the modelled transmission suitability \r\nfor dengue for two climate-change scenarios. Future increases in the \r\nnumber of months suitable for transmission of dengue will be highest \r\nin SES (see SM12.8 for additional information). There is additional \r\nevidence of the spread of arbovirus into southern temperate latitudes \r\n(Basso et al., 2017); however, a longer historical time series is needed \r\nto understand climate-disease interactions, given the relatively recent \r\nemergence of arborvirus in this region."


id: 6bf5b8df4cd6775e3fc90669dd88d69b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14608
content:
"Cities like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo are overpopulated, where most \r\npeople live in poor conditions of inadequate housing and sanitation, \r\nsuch as slums, with little and no trees and high temperatures. These \r\npeople have low access to sanitation, public health and residential \r\ncooling and are vulnerable to the effects of heat islands on human \r\ncomfort and health (Figure  12.7). These include cardiopulmonary, \r\nvector-borne diseases and even death (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Araujo et  al., 2015; Mishra et  al., \r\n2015; Geirinhas et al., 2018; Peres et al., 2018). Heat stress is known \r\nto worsen cardiovascular, diabetic and respiratory conditions (Lapola \r\net al., 2019a). In connection with the heat island effect, these people \r\nare also vulnerable to injuries and casualties due to increased \r\nthunderstorms, causing economic losses and other social problems \r\n(Vemado and Pereira Filho, 2016)."


id: 70b846e3dde8254fd3ddc9eac1575a7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15357
content:
"SLR impacts the port complex in Santa Catarina, which during the last \r\n6 years has interrupted its activities 76 times due to strong winds or \r\nbig waves, with estimated losses varying between USD 25,000 and \r\n50,000 for each 24 idle hours (Ohz et al., 2020). Historically, extratropical \r\ncyclones associated with frontal systems cause storm surges in the city \r\nof Santos. Although there are no fatality records, these events cause \r\nseveral socioeconomic losses, especially in vulnerable regions, including \r\nthe Port of Santos, the largest port in Latin America (Sao Paulo). In an 88-\r\nyear time span (1928-2016), the frequency of storm surge events was \r\nthree times greater in the last 17 years (2000-2016) than in the previous \r\nperiod of 71 years (1928-1999) (Souza et al., 2019)."


id: 95937c3bda73d54ad69d97faa53ac4f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21037
content:
"There are many projected impacts of climate change on natural \r\nsystems. The impacts of SLR are habitat destruction and the invasion of \r\nexotic species, which affect biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem \r\nservices (Figure 12.8) (Nagy et al., 2019)."


id: 372e5c59db94d32d2428740cdeb36bdc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6068
content:
"Heat islands affect ecosystems by increasing the energy consumption \r\nfor cooling, the concentration of pollutants and the incidence of fires \r\n(high confidence) (Wong et  al., 2013; Akbari and Kolokotsa, 2016; \r\nSingh et al., 2020b; Ulpiani, 2021). It also affects human health, as well \r\nincreasing the incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) (Araujo "


id: 1da212edd5f7b73c080cf76b376e27a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2103
content:
"Figure 12.5 |  Predicted thermal suitability for transmission of dengue by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, mapped as the number of months of the year suitable \r\nunder baseline or current conditions (2015), and in 2030, 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Adapted from Ryan et al. (2019). See SM12.8 for additional data \r\non population at risk for dengue and Zika in the sub-regions and methodological details."


id: a31d102f48b6e6bb3acd8897a8d59c32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23229
content:
"change, such as the meadows of northwestern Patagonia (Crego et al., \r\n2014) and mangroves of southern Brazil (Godoy and Lacerda, 2015). \r\nPredicted changes in global climate along with agricultural expansion \r\nwill strongly affect South American wetlands, which comprise around \r\n20% of the continent and bring many benefits, such as biodiversity \r\nconservation and water availability (Junk, 2013)."


id: ec031bbcc6472b7b96791789cfd91bec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34630
content:
"A robust drying trend for Chile (30degS-48degS) has been recorded (medium \r\nconfidence) (Saurral et  al., 2017; Boisier et  al., 2018). However, \r\ninconsistent trends over the region in the magnitude of precipitation \r\nextremes with both decreases and increases (Chou et al., 2014; Giorgi \r\net al., 2014; Heidinger et al., 2018; Meseguer-Ruiz et al., 2018) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table 11.14) (Seneviratne et al., 2021) have been observed (low \r\nconfidence). The glacier equilibrium line altitude has presented an \r\noverall increase over central Chilean Andes (Barria et al., 2019)."


id: cf54335ea0713b53919f606ab4b12a9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30152
content:
"For central Chile, a significant increase (5% to 20% in the last 60 years) \r\nin wave heights in the sea has been observed (Martinez et al., 2018). \r\nFrom 1982 to 2016, sea levels at central Chile have increased 5 mm \r\nyr-1, where El Nino events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 caused an \r\nextreme increase of 15 to 20 cm in the mean sea level (Campos-Caba, \r\n2016; Martinez et al., 2018)."


id: fd1f80664aed96335697e5522ff37912
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37339
content:
"Significant increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and \r\nsignificant decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes \r\nhave likely been observed for the region (Skansi et al., 2013; Ceccherini \r\net al., 2016; Meseguer-Ruiz et al., 2018; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2018; \r\nDereczynski et al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020; Olmo et al., 2020) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table 11.13) (Seneviratne et al., 2021). In particular, a significant \r\nincrement in the duration and frequency of heatwaves mainly in \r\ncentral Chile from 1961 to 2016 has been observed (Piticar, 2018)."


id: 6bad767283435d40bf7469003d3d8854
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14568
content:
"From 1946 to 2017, the number of fires and areas burned have \r\nincreased significantly in Chile (high confidence) (Gonzalez et  al., \r\n2011; Jolly et al., 2015; Ubeda and Sarricolea, 2016; de la Barrera et al., \r\n2018; Urrutia-Jalabert et al., 2018). Fires are attributed to changes in "


id: 9afe71203960a4a1c4cb9be370a54585
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21923
content:
"communities living in coastal cities show a negative safety perception \r\nabout the performance of the infrastructure and coastal defences to \r\nflood events (low confidence) (Gonzalez and Holtmann-Ahumada, \r\n2017; Igualt et al., 2019)."


id: e0c1dbccbddafd7005f2b16f4f60b0d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32865
content:
"temperature regimes (Gonzalez et al., 2011; de la Barrera et al., 2018; \r\nGomez-Gonzalez et  al., 2018) and precipitation regimes (medium \r\nconfidence) (Gomez-Gonzalez et  al., 2018; Urrutia-Jalabert et  al., \r\n2018)."


id: d0adec71b6d42c354e7bd83d62c23be4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30361
content:
"Although climate change is critically important for the current and \r\nfuture status of mining activity in SWS (Odell et al., 2018), and SWS \r\nareas subjected to mining activities are highly exposed to water risk \r\n(Northey et al., 2017), to date there is low evidence of climate change \r\nimpacting mining activities (Corzo and Gamboa, 2018; Odell et  al., \r\n2018)."


id: c3bf070cc90e226c5f81ce5e3f74fc13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28368
content:
"The glaciers of the southern Andes (including the SWS and SSA regions) \r\nshow the highest glacier mass loss rates worldwide (high confidence) \r\ncontributing to SLR (Jacob et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013; Dussaillant \r\net  al., 2018; Braun et  al., 2019; Zemp et  al., 2019). Since 1985, the \r\nglacier area loss in the sub-region is in a range of 20 up to 60% (Braun \r\net al., 2019; Reinthaler et al., 2019b)."


id: 7d0b2a14fc13b400d8e3bfc104343f74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17265
content:
"Regional sea-level change for the region predicted by 2100 shows that \r\ntotal mean SLR along the coast will lie between 34 and 52 cm for the \r\nRCP4.5 scenario and between 46 and 74 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario \r\nwith high confidence (Albrecht and Shaffer, 2016; WGI AR6 Table 12.6, \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: da7cb1cb925029f7d6388f5d5403d99c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31903
content:
"There is high confidence that age and socioeconomic status are key \r\nfactors determining health exposure and quality of life in SWS, where \r\nlow-income areas show an insufficient number of public spaces to \r\nprovide acceptable environmental quality in comparison with the high\u0002income areas (Romero-Lankao et al., 2013; Fernandez and Wu, 2016; \r\nPaz et al., 2016; Hystad et al., 2019; Smith and Henriquez, 2019; Jaime \r\net al., 2020; Pino-Cortes et al., 2020)."


id: 90aac5be12794412e1f8c8060a6b5a56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20298
content:
"Profound social inequalities, urban expansion and inadequate city \r\nplanning (e.g., drainage network) increase exposure to flooding \r\nevents and landslides (high confidence) (Muller and Hofer, 2014; Rojas \r\net al., 2017; Lara et al., 2018), heat hazards such as heatwaves (high \r\nconfidence) (Welz et al., 2014; Qin et al., 2015; Inostroza et al., 2016; \r\nWelz and Krellenberg, 2016; Krellenberg and Welz, 2017) and the loss \r\nand fragmentation of green infrastructure (GI) (Hernandez-Moreno and \r\nReyes-Paecke, 2018). SWS cities show the highest levels of air pollution \r\nof CSA (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Pino et al., 2015; Huneeus et al., 2020; Gonzalez-Rojas et al., 2021), \r\nwhere state air quality alerts have limited effect on protective health \r\nbehaviours, since public perceptions about air pollution vary widely \r\namong the population (Boso et  al., 2019). In particular, human "


id: be2fee5a52b0f667a4d969728c9e1387
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27480
content:
"factors (high confidence) (Labra, 2002; Vitriol et  al., 2014; Quijada \r\net  al., 2018), which are increased by the absence of local planning \r\nand drills and the lack of coordination (Vitriol et al., 2014). Indigenous \r\nPeoples have the highest levels of vulnerability in Chile in terms of \r\nincome, basic needs and access to services to climate change (low \r\nconfidence) (Parraguez-Vergara et al., 2016)."


