# document

id: 2e15974abcbfa77538a5358e9714aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Future ocean warming, coupled with periodic extreme heat events, \r\nis projected to lead to the continued loss of ecosystem services and \r\necological functions (high confidence) (Smale et al., 2019) as species \r\nfurther shift their distributions and/or decline in abundance (Day et al., \r\n2018). Compounding climate-driven changes in the distribution of \r\nhabitat-forming species, invasive macroalgae are predicted to exhibit \r\nhigher growth under all higher pCO2 and lower pH conditions (Roth\u0002Schulze et al., 2018). Corals and mangroves around northern Australia \r\nand kelp and seagrass around southern Australia are of critical \r\nimportance for ecosystem structure and function, fishery productivity, \r\ncoastal protection and carbon sequestration; these ecosystem services \r\nare therefore extremely likely2\r\n to decline with continued warming"


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" \r\nEqually, many species provide important ecosystem structure and \r\nfunction in New Zealand's seas including in the deep sea (Tracey \r\nand Hjorvarsdottir, 2019). The future level of sustainable exploitation \r\nof fisheries is dependent on how climate change impacts these \r\necosystems. Native kelp is projected to further decline in southeastern \r\nNew Zealand with warming seas (Table 11.6). Climate change could \r\naffect New Zealand fisheries' productivity (Cummings et  al., 2021), \r\nand both ocean warming and acidification may directly affect shellfish \r\nculture (Cunningham et al., 2016; Cummings et al., 2019) and indirectly \r\nthrough changes in phytoplankton production (Pinkerton, 2017)."


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"(Table 11.3) (Law et al., 2016; Tait et al., 2016; Mikaloff-Fletcher et al., \r\n2017). Acidification may alter sex determination (e.g., in the oyster \r\nSaccostrea glomerate), resulting in changes in sex ratios (Parker et al., \r\n2018), and may thus affect reproductive success (low confidence). \r\nDecreasing river flows (Chiew et  al., 2017) are projected to cause \r\nperiodically open estuaries across southwest Australia to remain closed \r\nfor longer periods, inhibiting the extent to which marine taxa can \r\naccess these systems (Hallett et al., 2017) and with warming predicted \r\nto constrain activity in some large fish (Scott et  al., 2019b). Major \r\nknowledge gaps include environmental tolerances of key life stages, \r\nsources of recruitment, population linkages, critical ecological (e.g., \r\npredator-prey interactions) or phenological relationships and projected \r\nresponses to lowered pH (Fleming et al., 2014; Fogarty et al., 2019)"


id: aafae24f2739a888ed32ed6438d363bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"\r\nBlack-browed albatrosses breeding on Macquarie Island may be more \r\nvulnerable to future climate-driven changes to weather patterns in the \r\nSouthern Ocean and potential latitudinal shifts in the sub-Antarctic \r\nFront (Cleeland et  al., 2019). New Zealand coastal ecosystems face \r\nrisks from sea level rise (SLR) and extreme weather events (MfE, \r\n2020a)."


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"The GBR is already severely impacted by climate change, particularly ocean warming, through more frequent and severe coral bleaching \r\n(very high confidence) (Hughes et al., 2018b; Hughes et al., 2019c). The worst coral bleaching event on record affected over 90% of reefs \r\nin 2016 (Hughes et al., 2018b). In the most northern 700-km-long section of the GBR in which the heat exposure was the most extreme, \r\n50% of the coral cover on reef crests was lost within 8 months (Hughes et al., 2018c). Throughout the entire GBR, including the southern \r\nthird where heat exposure was minimal, the cover of corals declined by 30% between March and November 2016 (Hughes et al., 2018b). \r\nIn 2017, the central third of the reef was the most severely affected and the back-to-back regional-scale bleaching events has led to an \r\nunprecedented shift in the composition of GBR coral assemblages, transforming the northern and middle sections of the reef system \r\n(Hughes et al"


id: c9e35dd2f452d03d499af1e293c8f77
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", 2018c) to a highly degraded state (very high confidence). Coral recruitment to the GBR in 2018 was reduced to only 11% \r\nof the long-term average (Hughes et al., 2019b). A mass bleaching event also occurred in 2020, making it the third event in 5 years (BoM, \r\n2020) (Figure Boxes 11.2.1 and 11.2.2)."


id: 9480e8eb49a35c66d44deac63cfd2ac0
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"Climate change adaptation opportunities and pathways have been \r\nidentified across aquaculture, fisheries, conservation and tourism \r\nsectors in the region (MacDiarmid et  al., 2013; Fleming et  al., \r\n2014; MPI, 2015; Jennings et al., 2016; MfE, 2016; Royal Society Te \r\nAparangi, 2017; Ling and Hobday, 2019), and some stakeholders \r\nare already autonomously adapting (Pecl et al., 2019). Some fishing \r\nand aquaculture industries use seasonal forecasts of environmental \r\nconditions to improve decision-making, risk management and business \r\nplanning (Hobday et  al., 2016), with the potential to use 5-yearly \r\nforecasts similarly (Champion et al., 2019). Shifts in the distribution \r\nand availability of target species (e.g., oceanic tuna) would impact \r\nthe ability of domestic fishing vessels to continue current fishing \r\npractices, with potential social and economic adjustment costs (Dell \r\net  al., 2015), including disruption to supply chains (Fleming et  al., \r\n2014; Plaganyi et  al"


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", 2014) (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING SPECIES \r\nin Chapter 5). Species abundance data are insufficient to enable \r\nprojections of climate impacts on fishery productivity. However, fishery \r\nand aquaculture industries are considering adaptation strategies, \r\nsuch as changing harvests and relocating farms (Pinkerton, 2017). \r\nThus, while climate change is extremely likely to affect the abundance \r\nand distribution of marine species around New Zealand, insufficient \r\nmonitoring means there is limited evidence of ecosystem level change \r\nin biodiversity to date and no quantitative projections of which species \r\nmay win and lose to climate change (Table 11.6) (Law et al., 2018a; \r\nLaw et al., 2018b)."


id: 2bf5f83092321e6562d1ce44261ffa0b
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"Streamflow has generally increased in northern Australia and decreased \r\nin southern Australia since the mid-1970s (high confidence) (Zhang \r\net al., 2016). Declining river flows since the mid-1970s in southwest \r\nAustralia have led to changed water management (WA Government, \r\n2012; WA Government, 2016). The large decline in river flows during \r\nthe so-called 1997-2009 Millennium drought in southeast Australia \r\nresulted in low irrigation water allocations, severe water restrictions \r\nand major environmental impacts (Potter et  al., 2010; Chiew and \r\nProsser, 2011; Leblanc et al., 2012; van Dijk et al., 2013). The drying in \r\nsouthern Australia highlighted the need for hydrological models that \r\nadequately account for climate change (Vaze et al., 2010; Chiew et al., \r\n2014; Saft et al., 2016; Fowler et al., 2018). The decline in streamflow \r\nwas largely due to the decline in cool-season rainfall (which has been \r\npartly attributed to climate change) (Figure 11"


id: 2d3770f228f4e6b4b296b15022401476
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"2) (Timbal and Hendon, \r\n2011; Post et al., 2014; Hope et al., 2017; DELWP, 2020), when most of \r\nthe runoff in southern Australia occurs."


id: a48247e476195135e22cb035f49b83f1
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"The widespread 2017-2019 drought across eastern Australia (BoM, \r\n2021b) has led to the Australian government establishing a Future \r\nDrought Fund (Australian Government, 2019) to enhance drought \r\nresilience and a National Water Grid Authority to develop regional \r\nwater infrastructure to support agriculture. Nevertheless, the ability to \r\nadapt to climate change is compounded by uncertainties in future water \r\nprojections, complex interactions between science, policy, community \r\nvalues and political voice, and competition between different sectors \r\ndependent on water (Boxes 11.3 and 11.5). The impact of declining \r\nwater resources on agricultural, ecosystems and communities in \r\nsoutheastern Australia would escalate with ongoing climate change \r\n(medium confidence) (Hart, 2016; Moyle et  al., 2017), highlighting \r\nthe importance of more ambitious, anticipatory, participatory and \r\nintegrated adaptation responses (Bettini et al., 2015; Abel et al"


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"The economic, environmental and social impacts of the 1997-2009 Millennium Drought in the MDB (Chiew and Prosser, 2011; Leblanc \r\net al., 2012; van Dijk et al., 2013) and projections of a drier future under climate change have accelerated significant water policy reforms \r\ncosting more than AUD$12 billion (Bark et al., 2014; Docker and Robinson, 2014; Hart, 2016). These reforms included the development \r\nof a Basin Plan (MDBA, 2011; MDBA, 2012) requiring consistent regional water resource plans (MDBA, 2011; MDBA, 2012; MDBA, \r\n2013) and environmental watering strategies (MDBA, 2014) across the MDB. Despite contestation, the reforms have resulted in some \r\nsubstantive achievements, including returning an equivalent of about one-fifth of consumptive water to the environment through the \r\npurchase of irrigation water entitlements and infrastructure projects (medium confidence) (Hart, 2016; Gawne et al., 2020; MDBA, 2020)"


id: 93ef0703fdd5e7d07a7689b3d8970580
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" \r\nHowever, the overall impacts of these water management initiatives are difficult to measure due to hydroclimatic variability, time lags \r\nand environmental, social and institutional complexity (Crase, 2011; Bark et al., 2014; Docker and Robinson, 2014; MDBA, 2020)."


id: aa08fde7f6604fb9bde07d260feb98d2
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"Adapting MDB management to climate risks is an escalating challenge, with the projected decline in runoff being potentially greater than \r\nthe water recovered for the environment (Chiew et al., 2017). While the Basin Plan includes mechanisms for climate risk management \r\n(Neave et al., 2015), it does not require altering pre-existing rules that distribute the impacts of anticipated reductions in water resources \r\nbetween users (Hart, 2016; Capon and Capon, 2017; Alexandra, 2020). The intense drought conditions in 2017-2019 (BoM, 2021b), the \r\nSouth Australian Royal Commission investigation into the MDB reforms (SA Government, 2019b) and major fish kills in the lower Darling \r\nRiver in the summer of 2018/2019 (AAS, 2019; Vertessy et al., 2019) have increased concerns about the Basin Plan's climate adaptation \r\ndeficit (medium confidence)"


id: f354e627162cf9f1301d76f79cc1fb75
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" Consequently, the MDB Authority (MDBA) is undertaking an assessment of climate change risks and \r\ndeveloping adaptation mechanisms (MDBA, 2019) that can feed into the revisions to the Basin Plan scheduled for 2026. The MDB reforms \r\nto date illustrate the difficulties in integrating climate change science and projections into management (Alexandra, 2018; Alexandra, \r\n2020). Anticipatory and participatory governance and adaptive management approaches supported by structural and institutional \r\nreforms would support the effectiveness of the reforms (Abel et al., 2016; Alexandra, 2019; Hassenforder and Barone, 2019; Marshall and \r\nLobry de Bruyn, 2021)."


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"In non-urban areas, where the flood response is also dependent on antecedent catchment conditions (Johnson et al., 2016; Sharma et al., \r\n2018), there is no evidence of increasing flood magnitudes in Australia (Ishak et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2016; Bennett et al., 2018), except \r\nfor the most extreme events (Sharma et al., 2018; Wasko and Nathan, 2019). Modelling studies project increases in flood magnitudes in \r\nnorthern and eastern Australia and in western and northern New Zealand (high confidence) (Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2018a; \r\nDo et al., 2020). The change in flood magnitude in southern Australia is uncertain because of the compensating effect of more intense \r\nextreme rainfall versus projected drier antecedent conditions (Johnson et al., 2016; Pedruco et al., 2018; Wasko and Nathan, 2019). Higher \r\nrainfall intensity and peak flows also increase erosion and sediment and nutrient loads in waterways (Lough et al"


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", 2015) and exacerbate \r\nproblems from ageing stormwater and wastewater infrastructure (Jollands et al., 2007; WSAA, 2016; Hughes et al., 2021)."


id: 7b61bb35d8084a37a70af02523f5e1c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Drought, heat and frost in recent decades have shown the vulnerability \r\nof Australian field crops and horticulture to climate change (Cai \r\net  al., 2014; Howden et  al., 2014; CSIRO and BOM, 2015; Lobell \r\net  al., 2015; Hughes and Lawson, 2017; King et  al., 2017; Webb \r\net al., 2017; Harris et al., 2020) as recognised by policymakers (CoA, \r\n2019a) (high confidence). Northern Australia's agricultural output \r\nlosses are on average 19% each year due to drought (Thi Tran et al., \r\n2016). In southern Australia, the frequency of frost has been relatively \r\nunchanged since the 1980s (Dittus et  al., 2014; Pepler et  al., 2018; \r\nBoM and CSIRO, 2020). Drier winters have increased the irrigation \r\nrequirement for wine grapes (Bonada et al., 2020), while smoke from \r\nthe 2019/20 fires, which occurred early in the season, caused significant \r\ntaint damage (Jiang et al., 2021)"


id: 18866282a363fa1418baf24f526f61dc
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" In New Zealand, reduced winter chill \r\nhas a compounded impact on the kiwifruit industry, resulting in early \r\nharvest and increased energy demand for refrigeration and port access \r\nproblems (Cradock-Henry et al., 2019) (11.5)."


id: d9f6b090e68d1fac9fe92e8a79fe2308
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"Some farmers are adapting to drier and warmer conditions through \r\nmore effective capture of non-growing-season rainfall (e.g., stubble \r\nretention to store soil water), improved water use efficiency and \r\nmatching sowing times and cultivars to the environment (high \r\nconfidence) (Kirkegaard and Hunt, 2011; Fitzer et al., 2019; Haensch \r\net  al., 2021). Observed adaptations include new technologies that \r\nimprove resource efficiencies, professional knowledge and skills \r\ndevelopment, new farmer and community networks and diversification \r\nof business and household income (Ghahramani et  al., 2015; De \r\net al., 2016). For Australian wheat, earlier sowing and longer-season \r\ncultivars may increase yield by 2-4% by 2050, with a range of -7 to \r\n+2% by 2090 (Wang et al., 2018a). In the wheat industry, breeding \r\nfor improved reproductive frost tolerance remains a priority (Lobell \r\net al., 2015)"


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" Modelling suggests that, since 1990, farm management \r\nhas held Australian wheat yields constant, but declining rainfall and \r\nincreasing temperature may have contributed to a 27% decline in \r\nsimulated potential Australian wheat yield (Hochman et al., 2017)."


id: 548539aae1c02edd04d52e8610a3138c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Other climate-change-related factors complicate crop climate \r\nresponses. When CO2 was elevated from present-day levels of 400 to \r\n550 ppm in trials, yields of rainfed wheat, field pea and lentil increased \r\napproximately 25% (0-70%). However, there was a 6% reduction in \r\nwheat protein that could not be offset by additional nitrogen fertilizer \r\n(O'Leary et al., 2015; Fitzgerald et al., 2016; Tausz et al., 2017). Elevated \r\nCO2 will worsen some pest and disease pressures, for example, \r\nbarley yellow dwarf virus impacts on wheat (Trebicki et  al., 2015). \r\nWarmer temperatures are also expanding the potential range of the \r\nQueensland fruit fly, including into New Zealand (Aguilar et al., 2015a), \r\nthreatening the horticulture industry (Sultana et  al., 2017; Sultana \r\net al., 2020). Some crop pests (e.g., the oat aphid) are projected to be \r\nnegatively affected by climate change (Macfadyen et al., 2018), but \r\nso too are beneficial insects"


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" There is large uncertainty in rainfall and \r\ncrop projections for northern Australia (Table 11.3). For sugarcane, an \r\nimpact assessment for CO2 at 734 ppm using the A2 emission scenario \r\nat Ayr in Queensland projected modest yield increases (Singels et al., \r\n2014). Climate change is projected to adversely impact tropical fruit \r\ncrops such as mangoes through higher minimum and maximum \r\ntemperatures, reducing the number of inductive days for flowering \r\n(Clonan et al., 2020)."


id: 3b96036795a3f06aa739f839f13a075f
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"Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems require \r\nenhanced decision-making skills capable of integrating biophysical, \r\nsocial and economic considerations (high confidence). Social learning \r\nnetworks that support integration of lessons learned from early \r\nadopters and involvement with science-based organisations can help \r\nenhance decision-making and climate adaptation planning (Derner \r\net al., 2018). Pasture management adaptations for livestock production \r\ninclude deeper rooted pasture species in higher rainfall regions \r\n(Cullen et  al., 2014) and drought-tolerant species (Mathew et  al., \r\n2018). Soil and land management practices are important in ensuring \r\nsoils maintain their supporting and regulating services (Orwin et al., \r\n2015). Adaptations in the primary sector in New Zealand are now \r\npositioned within the requirements of the National Policy Statement \r\non Freshwater (MfE, 2020b)"


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" Adaptations to manage heat stress in \r\nlivestock include altering the breeding calendar, providing shade and \r\nsprinklers, altering nutrition and feeding times and more heat-tolerant \r\nanimal breeds (Chang-Fung-Martel et al., 2017; Lees et al., 2019; van \r\nWettere et al., 2021)."


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"Extreme climatic events (droughts, floods and heatwaves) are \r\nprojected to adversely impact productivity for livestock systems \r\n(medium confidence). This includes reduced pasture growth rates \r\nbetween 3-23% by 2070 from late spring to autumn and elevated \r\ngrowth in winter and early spring (Cullen et al., 2009; Hennessy et al., \r\n2016; Chang-Fung-Martel et al., 2017). Heavy rainfall and storms are \r\nprojected to lead to increased erosion, particularly in extensively grazed \r\nsystems on steeper land, reducing productivity for decades, reducing \r\nsoil carbon (Orwin et al., 2015) and increasing sedimentation. Increased \r\nheat stress in livestock is projected to decrease milk production and \r\nlivestock reproduction rates (high confidence) (Nidumolu et al., 2014; \r\nAusseil et al., 2019b; Lees et al., 2019)"


id: e912586c633e4f29639e4f89a3b2cc01
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" In Australia, the average number \r\nof moderate to severe heat stress days for livestock is projected to \r\nincrease 12-15 d by 2025 and 31-42 d by 2050 compared to 1970-\r\n2000 (Nidumolu et al., 2014). In New Zealand, an extra 5 (RCP2.6) to \r\n7 (RCP8.5) moderate heat stress days per year are projected for 2046-\r\n2060 (high confidence) (Ausseil et al., 2019b), which would especially \r\naffect animals transported long distances (Zhang and Phillips, 2019) and \r\nstrain the cold chains needed to deliver meat and dairy products safely. \r\nThe distribution of existing and new pests and diseases are projected to "


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"Aquaculture is projected to be more easily adapted than wild fisheries \r\nto avoid excessive exposure to the physio-chemical stresses from \r\nacidification, warming and extreme events (Richards et al., 2015). In \r\nNew Zealand, wild and cultured shellfish are identified as being most \r\nat risk from climate change (Capson and Guinotte, 2014). Changes \r\nin ocean temperature and acidification and the downstream impacts \r\non species distribution, productivity and catch are projected concerns \r\n(medium confidence) (Law et al., 2016) that impact Maori harvesting \r\nof traditional seafood and the social, cultural and educational \r\nelements of food gathering (mahinga kai) (MfE, 2016)"


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" Warm \r\ntemperate hatchery-based finfish species (yellowtail kingfish Seriola \r\nlalandi) are projected to be the least at risk, because of well-controlled \r\nenvironmental conditions in hatcheries and temperature increases, \r\nwhich are expected to increase growth rates and productivity during \r\nthe grow-out stage (Doubleday et al., 2013). For wild fisheries, multi\u0002model projections suggest temperate and demersal systems, especially \r\ninvertebrate shallow-water species, would be more strongly affected by \r\nclimate change than tropical and pelagic systems (medium confidence) \r\n(Pecl et al., 2014; Fulton et al., 2018; Pethybridge et al., 2020). In New \r\nZealand waters, available habitat for both albacore tuna and oceanic \r\ntuna (Cummings et al., 2021) is expected to widen and shift."


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"Combined impacts from heavy rainfall, soil erosion, drought, fire and \r\npest incursions are projected to increase risks to the permanence of \r\ncarbon offset and removal strategies in New Zealand for meeting its \r\nclimate change targets (PCE, 2019; Watt et al., 2019; Anderegg et al., \r\n2020; Schenuit et al., 2021). Effective management of the interactions \r\nbetween mitigation and adaptation policies can be achieved through \r\ngovernance and institutions, including Maori tribal organisations \r\nand sectoral adaptation, to ensure effective and continued carbon \r\nsequestration and storage as the climate changes (medium confidence) \r\n(Lawrence et al., 2020b) (11.4.2) (Box 11.5). The productivity of radiata \r\npine (P. radiata D. Don) in New Zealand due to higher CO2 is projected to \r\nincrease by 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090, but greater wind damage \r\nto trees is expected (Watt et  al., 2019)"


id: 8443f92d1659b82b7e89fa568b73b0b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18345
content:
" Changes in the distribution \r\nof existing weeds, pests and diseases with potential establishment \r\nof new sub-tropical pests and seasonal invasions are projected (Kean \r\net al., 2015; Watt et al., 2019; MfE, 2020a). Increased pathogens such \r\nas pitch canker, red needle cast and North American bark beetles could \r\ndamage plantations (Hauraki Gulf Forum, 2017; Lantschner, 2017; \r\nWatt et al., 2019)."


id: c5f753f3838c9c1863c2c52cb1de0a55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 28725
content:
"Furthermore, overallocation raises further tensions from competing uses of water such as for horticulture and urban water supplies, \r\nas well as for ecological requirements. The deterioration of water quality and loss of places of social, economic, cultural and spiritual \r\nsignificance creates increasing tension for Maori in particular (Harmsworth et al., 2016; Salmon, 2019; MfE and Stats NZ, 2021). Public \r\nconcern has increased over the deterioration of New Zealand's waterways and the profiting of some land uses at the expense of \r\nenvironmental quality and human health--tensions that make adaptation to climate change more challenging (Duncan, 2014; Foote \r\net al., 2015; Scarsbrook and Melland, 2015; McDowell et al., 2016; McKergow et al., 2016; Greenhalgh and Samarasinghe, 2018)"


id: 3501c1a0250e34fd1bf19e5c8283bdab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 5749
content:
" A lack \r\nof precautionary governance of water resources linked to unsustainable land use practices degrading water quality (Scarsbrook and \r\nMelland, 2015; Salmon, 2019) highlights the role that foresight could play in managing the nexus between land, water and people in a \r\nchanging climate (11.3.3). Adaptive planning holds potential for navigating these multi-dimensional challenges (Sharma-Wallace et al., \r\n2018; Cradock-Henry and Fountain, 2019; Hurlbert et al., 2019) (11.7)."


id: fe3e2242598cbb1f34cad71857933e94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 37530
content:
"Furthermore, land and, in particular, plantation and native forests play a critical role in meeting New Zealand's emissions reduction goals. \r\nHowever, the persistence of land and forests as a carbon sink is uncertain, and the sequestered carbon is at risk from future loss resulting \r\nfrom climate change impacts, including from increased fire, drought and pest incursions, storms and wind (IPCC, 2019a; PCE, 2019; Watt \r\net al., 2019; Anderegg et al., 2020) (11.3.4.3), underlining the importance of interactions between mitigation and adaptation policy and \r\nimplementation. Integrated climate change policies across biodiversity, water quality, water availability, land use and forestry for mitigation \r\ncan support the management of land use, water and people conflicts, but there is little evidence of such coordinated policies (Cradock-Henry \r\net al., 2018b; Wreford et al., 2019)"


id: a93caf483f0376a3c1d84f0e280135fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 24155
content:
" Implementation of the National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management 2020 (MfE, 2020b) and the \r\nNational Adaptation Plan (due out in August 2022) present opportunities for such interconnections and diverse values to be addressed, as \r\nwell as enabling sector and community benefits to be realised across New Zealand (Awatere et al., 2018; Lawrence et al., 2020b)."


id: 296227bb42c97860167a8f3a34b11262
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3950
content:
"Extreme heat risks are projected to exacerbate existing heat-related \r\nimpacts on human health, vegetation and infrastructure (Tapper et al., \r\n2014; Tapper, 2021) (11.3.6). In Australia, the annual frequency of days \r\nover 35degC is projected to increase 20-70% by 2030 (RCP4.5), and \r\n25-85% (RCP2.6) to 80-350% (RCP8.5) by 2090 (Table  11.3a). For \r\nexample, Perth may average 36 d over 35degC by 2030 (RCP4.5). In New \r\nZealand, the annual frequency of days over 25degC may increase 20-\r\n60% (RCP2.6) to 50-100% (RCP8.5) by 2040 and 20-60% (RCP2.6) to \r\n130-350% (RCP8.5) by 2090 (Table 11.3b). For example, Auckland may \r\naverage 39 d over 25degC by 2040 (RCP8.5). Unprecedented extreme \r\ntemperatures, as high as 50degC in Sydney or Melbourne, could occur \r\nwith global warming of 2.0degC (Lewis et al., 2017). Heat-related costs \r\nfor Melbourne during 2012-2051 are estimated at AUD$1.9  billion, \r\nof which AUD$1.6  billion is human health/mortality costs (AECOM, \r\n2012)"


id: 5346ef6073ba00c1e6ee33f73e8c12b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 10571
content:
" Extreme heat is threatening liveability in some rural areas in \r\nAustralia (Turton, 2017), particularly given their reliance on outside \r\nphysical work and older populations."


id: ed399776b8d2153a9003a009cb2cdea1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"settlements and infrastructure (very high confidence) (Table  11.15a \r\nand Table  11.15b; Supplementary Material Tables SM11.1a and \r\nSM11.1b). There is increasing awareness of the need to move from \r\nincremental coping and defensive coastal strategies (Jongejan et al., \r\n2016) to transformational adaptation, for example managed retreat \r\n(Torabi et al., 2018; Hanna, 2019), and to consider the flow-on effects \r\n(e.g., for housing and employment) (Fatoric et al., 2017; Torabi et al., \r\n2018). Strategies limited to building household and community self\u0002reliance (Astill and Miller, 2018) are increasingly inadequate given sys\u0002temic and interconnected stressors and cascading impacts across in\u0002terdependent systems (Lawrence et al., 2020b). Integrated approaches \r\nto climate change adaptation and emissions reduction have potential \r\nfor addressing interdependent systems (e.g., nature-based approaches, \r\nclimate-sensitive urban design, energy and transport systems) (Nor\u0002man et al., 2021)"


id: 99338290c4c24c86c606fd5954e7bfa7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 21617
content:
" Climate risk assessment and adaptation guidelines \r\nhave been prepared for transport infrastructure authorities and organ\u0002isations (Finlayson et al., 2017; Byett et al., 2019; Yenneti et al., 2020)."


id: 934b4ea5f809b266831e25b93dcc7fb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 20687
content:
"mitigation goals (e.g., current energy efficiency standards in Australian \r\nbuildings can worsen their heat resistance and increase dependence \r\non air-conditioning) (Hatvani-Kovacs et al., 2018). Where there is a lack \r\nof coordination between jurisdictions, there can be flow-on effects \r\nfrom failure to adapt, for example in coastal local government areas \r\n(Dedekorkut-Howes et al., 2020) (Box 11.6). There is limited information \r\nacross the region on climate change impacts and adaptation options for \r\ntelecommunications (NCCARF, 2013) (Table 11.7). There is an emerging \r\nrecognition that implementing and evaluating the adaptation process \r\n(vulnerability and risk assessments, identification of options, planning, \r\nimplementation, monitoring, evaluation and review) in local contexts \r\ncan advance more effective adaptation (Moloney and McClaren, 2018)"


id: d8a6a28c89dd3388b5faa60a7d6f616
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 31598
content:
" \r\nFor example, the Victorian state government has built monitoring, \r\nevaluation and adaptation components into its adaptation plan \r\n(Table 11.15a)."


id: cbfefd47e7f279be323bf8cfb6a5864e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 29639
content:
"In Australia, adaptation to SLR remains uneven across jurisdictions in the absence of clear federal or state guidance, rendering Australia \r\nunprepared for flooding from SLR (Dedekorkut-Howes et al., 2020). Risk-averse coastal governance at the local level has led to shifts in \r\nliabilities to other actors and to future generations (Jozaei et al., 2020). Managed retreat has emerged as an adaptation option in New \r\nZealand (Rouse et al., 2017; Hanna, 2019; Kool et al., 2020; Lawrence et al., 2020c), where protective measures are transitional (DoC \r\nNZ, 2010) and where managed retreat has arisen from collaborative governance (Owen et al., 2018). Remaining adaptation barriers are \r\nsocial or cultural (the absence of licence and legitimacy) and institutional (the absence of regulations, policies and processes that support \r\nchanges to existing property rights and the funding of retreat) (high confidence) (O'Donnell and Gates, 2013; Tombs et al., 2018; Grace \r\net al., 2019; O'Donnell et al"


id: a518f8d6b731d22997cca57b5b3e5e18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 23541
content:
"Legacy development, competing public and private interests, trade-offs among development and conservation objectives, policy \r\ninconsistencies, short- and long-term objectives and the timing and scale of impacts compound to create contestation over \r\nimplementation of coastal adaptation (high confidence) (Mills et al., 2016b; McClure and Baker, 2018; Dedekorkut-Howes et al., 2020; \r\nMcDonald, 2020; Schneider et al., 2020). Legal barriers to coastal adaptation remain (Schumacher, 2020) with a risk that the courts will \r\nbecome decision makers (Iorns Magallanes et al., 2018) due to legislative fragmentation, status quo leadership, lack of coordination \r\nbetween governance levels and agreement about who pays for what adaptation (very high confidence) (Waters et al., 2014; Boston and \r\nLawrence, 2018; Palutikof et al., 2019a; Noy, 2020)"


id: 5973cf75aeb90cb938307d3c21d2538f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11568
content:
" The nexus of climate, law, place and property rights continues to expose people and \r\nassets to ongoing SLR (Johnston and France-Hudson, 2019; O'Donnell, 2019), especially where the risks of SLR are not being reflected \r\nin property valuations (Cradduck et al., 2020). Risk signalling through land use planning, flooding events and changes in insurance \r\navailability and costs is projected to increase recognition of coastal risks (medium confidence) (Storey and Noy, 2017; CCATWG, 2018; \r\nLawrence et al., 2018a; Harvey and Clarke, 2019; Steffen et al., 2019; Cradduck et al., 2020; ICNZ, 2021). Proactive local-led engagement \r\nand strategy are key to effective adaptation and incentivising and supporting communities to act (Gibbs, 2020; Schneider et al., 2020). \r\nAdopting 'fit for purpose' decision tools that are flexible as sea levels rise (11.7.3) can build adaptive capacity in communities and \r\ninstitutions (high confidence)."


id: 36c739046d6a397d42256de65e2f8f40
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 6002
content:
"There is ample evidence of health loss due to extreme weather in \r\nAustralia and New Zealand, and rising temperatures, changing \r\nrainfall patterns and increasing fire weather have been attributed to \r\nanthropogenic climate change (11.2.1). Extreme heat leads to excess \r\ndeaths and increased rates of many illnesses (Hales et  al., 2000; \r\nNitschke et al., 2011; Lu et al., 2020). Between 1991 and 2011 it is \r\nestimated that 35-36% of heat-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney \r\nand Melbourne was attributable to climate change, amounting to \r\nabout 106 deaths a year on average over the study period (Vicedo\u0002Cabrera et  al., 2021). Exposure to high temperatures at work is \r\ncommon in Australia, and the health consequences may include more \r\naccidents, acute heat stroke and chronic disease (Kjellstrom et  al., \r\n2016).  Long-term rise in temperatures is changing the balance of \r\nsummer and winter mortality in Australia (Hanigan et al., 2021)"


id: d79ab4f9bd26b0afcf802f69f5e7fdf4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 31444
content:
" The \r\nBlack Summer wildfires in Australia in 2019/2020 (Box 11.1) caused \r\n33 deaths directly (Davey and Sarre, 2020) and exposed millions of \r\npeople to heavy particulate pollution (Vardoulakis et  al., 2020). In \r\nthe Australian states most heavily affected by the fires, 417 deaths, \r\n3151 hospital admissions for cardiovascular or respiratory conditions \r\nand about 1300 emergency department presentations for asthma are \r\nattributed to wildfire smoke exposure (Borchers Arriagada et al., 2020). \r\nImmediate smoke-related health costs from the 2019-2020 fires are \r\nestimated at AUD$1.95 billion (Johnston et al., 2020)."


id: c0e226056e746c047a9a294124fb6be8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27917
content:
"Extreme heat is associated with decreased mental well-being, more \r\nmarked in women than men (Ding et  al., 2016). Changing climatic \r\npatterns in western Australia have undermined farmers' sense of \r\nidentity and place, heightened anxiety and increased self-perceived \r\nrisks of depression and suicide (Ellis and Albrecht, 2017). Following the \r\nBlack Saturday wildfires in Victoria in 2009, 10-15% of the population \r\nin the most severely affected areas reported persistent fire-related \r\npost-traumatic stress disorder, depression and psychological distress \r\n(Bryant et al., 2014). Repeated exposure to the threat of wildfires in \r\nAustralia, either directly (Box 11.1) or through media coverage (Looi \r\net al., 2020), may compound effects on mental health. In March 2017, \r\n31,000 people in New South Wales and Queensland were displaced \r\nby Tropical Cyclone Debbie"


id: 567f51c4f01f17d93894c9c6ba313f05
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11085
content:
" Six months post-cyclone, adverse mental \r\nhealth outcomes were more common among those whose access to \r\nhealth and social care was disrupted (King et al., 2020)."


id: 6bd444d6302fb8fe222bd40afa65f5e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14586
content:
"Widespread impacts from projected climate change are very likely\r\nacross the tourism sector. The World Heritage listed Kakadu National \r\nPark in Australia is projected to experience increasing severity of \r\ncyclones (Turton, 2014), and sea level rise (SLR) is projected to affect \r\nfreshwater wetlands (11.3.1.2; Table 11.5) (McInnes et al., 2015) and \r\nIndigenous rock art (Higham et al., 2016; Hughes et al., 2018a). The \r\nprojected increase in the number of hot days in northern and inland \r\nAustralia may impact the attractiveness of the region for tourists \r\n(Amelung and Nicholls, 2014; Webb and Hennessy, 2015). Coastal \r\nerosion and flooding of Australasian beaches due to sea level rise (SLR) \r\nand intensifying storm activity are estimated to increase by 60% on \r\nthe Sunshine Coast by 2030, causing significant damage to tourist\u0002related infrastructure (Hughes et al., 2018a)"


id: 7cdcd6119e963cdf6bf7c53295eb125d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17244
content:
" Urgent 'hard' and 'soft' \r\nadaptation strategies are projected to help reduce sea level rise (SLR) \r\nimpacts (Becken and Wilson, 2016)."


id: a9a6c6a2b7a237a54c11b952febd5793
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24221
content:
"Impacts of climate change are being observed across the tourism \r\nsystem (high confidence) (Scott et al., 2019a), most notably the GBR \r\n(Box  11.2) (Ma and Kirilenko, 2019). Australia's ski industry is very \r\nsensitive to climatic change, due to reductions in snow depth and \r\nsnow season length (Table  11.2) (Steiger et  al., 2019; Knowles and \r\nScott, 2020). The 2019-2020 summer wildfires (Box  11.1) impacted \r\ntourism and travel infrastructure, affecting air quality, vineyards and \r\nwineries (CoA, 2020e; Filkov et al., 2020). Global media coverage of \r\nthe wildfires, alongside Australia's climate change policy response, \r\nprofoundly and negatively, affected Australia's destination image \r\n(Schweinsberg et al., 2020; Wen et al., 2020)"


id: cc2f070ad43d9a22d7534674fb1a2071
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 29666
content:
" In New Zealand's South \r\nIsland, Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers have retreated approximately \r\n700 m since 2008, with ice melt and retreat resulting in increased \r\nrock fall risks and negatively affecting the tourist experience (Purdie, \r\n2013; Stewart et al., 2016; Wang and Zhou, 2019). The west coast of \r\nNew Zealand is extremely prone to flooding events, impacting amenity \r\nvalues and access (Paulik et al., 2019a). Damage to tracks, huts and "


id: 87f099806a02c2d066550b3267174cff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18908
content:
"Risks for the finance sector are projected to increase (medium \r\nconfidence). The potential impact of increased coastal and inland \r\nflooding, soil desiccation and contraction, fire and wind could lead to \r\nhigher insurance costs, reduced property values and difficulties for some \r\ncustomers to service loans (CBA, 2018). Under a high-emissions scenario \r\n(RCP8.5), estimated annual losses to home-lending customers may \r\nincrease 27% by 2060, and the proportion of properties with high credit \r\nrisk may rise from 0.01% in 2020 to 1% in 2060, assuming no portfolio \r\nchanges (CBA, 2018). In New Zealand, weather-related insurance claims \r\nbetween 2000 and 2017 totalled NZD$450 million, 40% of which was \r\ndue to extreme rainfall. Using six climate model projections of extreme \r\nrainfall, the insured damage is projected to increase by 7% (RCP2.6) \r\nto 8% (RCP8.5) by 2020-2040 and 9% (RCP2.6) to 25% (RCP8.5) by \r\n2080-2100, relative to 2000-2017 (Pastor-Paz et al., 2020)"


id: 74f950b8032c09b880f57b1c9057139f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 15999
content:
" By 2050-\r\n2070, tropical cyclone risk for properties not in flood plains or storm \r\nsurge zones in south-east Queensland may increase by 33% under a \r\n2degC scenario and by 317% under a 3degC scenario for properties in flood \r\nplains and storm surge zones (IAG, 2019)."


id: da7e5cb2e345b4f352e4d493fb5ae85e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31906
content:
"Banks, insurers and investors increasingly recognise the risks posed \r\nby climate change to their businesses (high confidence) (Paddam \r\nand Wong, 2017). Collaborations between banks, insurers and \r\nsuperannuation funds in Australia and New Zealand are driving \r\nefforts aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement goals, including \r\nthe New Zealand Centre for Sustainable Finance and Australian \r\nSustainable Finance Initiative (AFSI, 2020; TAO, 2020; NZCFSF, 2021). \r\nCompany directors, including superannuation fund directors, have \r\nlegal obligations to disclose and appropriately manage material \r\nfinancial risks (Barker et al., 2016; Hutley and Davis, 2019). Financial \r\nregulators are aware of climate risks for financial stability and financial \r\ninstitutions (RBNZ, 2018; RBA, 2019) and are closely supervising \r\nclimate risk disclosure practices (TCFD, 2017; RBNZ, 2018; APRA, \r\n2019; CMSI, 2020; IGCC, 2021b)"


id: 50d119426ee30f491340b9fe61660be7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10161
content:
" In Australia, regulatory action (APRA, \r\n2021) includes issuing prudential guidelines for financial institutions \r\non managing climate risk, aligned with guidelines developed by the \r\nClimate Measurement Standards Initiative (NESP ESCC, 2020). In New \r\nZealand, the financial sector (climate-related disclosure and other \r\nmatters) amendment bill aims to ensure that the effects of climate \r\nchange are routinely considered in business, investment, lending and \r\ninsurance underwriting decisions (NZ Government, 2021)."


id: 7fc8551e89c6ff9bcfc1f55b8b87eb2d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17649
content:
"Aggregated insured losses from weather-related hazard events \r\nfrom 2013 to 2020 were almost AUD$15 billion for Australia (1.2% \r\nof GDP) and almost NZD$1  billion for New Zealand (0.4% of GDP) \r\n(NIWA, 2020; ICA, 2021) (ICA, 2020a; NIWA, 2020). However, there is \r\nno trend in normalised losses because the rising insurance costs are \r\nbeing driven by more people living in vulnerable locations with more \r\nto lose (McAneney et al., 2019). In New Zealand, two major hailstorms \r\nduring 2014-2020 and three major floods during 2019-2021 caused \r\nsignificant insurance losses (ICNZ, 2021). Insured losses exceeded \r\nNZD$472  million for the 12 costliest floods from 2007 to 2017, of \r\nwhich NZD$140 million could be attributed to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange (Frame et al., 2020). In Australia, insured damage was almost \r\nAUD$1.0 billion for the Queensland hailstorm in 2020, AUD$1.7 billion \r\nfor east coast flooding in 2020, AUD$2.3 billion for the 2019-2020 fires, \r\nAUD$2"


id: 3726a3c8cee33a7df87caa0912c8c5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"3 billion for the Queensland hailstorm in 2019, AUD$1.2 billion \r\nfor the North Queensland floods in 2019, AUD$1.4 billion for the NSW \r\nhailstorm in 2018, AUD$1.8  billion for Cyclone Debbie in 2017 and \r\nAUD$1.5 billion for the Brisbane hailstorm in 2014 (ICA, 2020b). The \r\ninsured loss from the seven costliest hailstorms in Australia from 2014 \r\nto 2021 totalled AUD$7.6 billion (ICA, 2021)."


id: 4883e172b51a170ec94e10724a411994
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8781
content:
"Current and future insurance affordability pressures could be addressed \r\nby increased mitigation, revisions to building codes and standards \r\nand better land use planning (ACCC, 2020; Actuaries Institute, 2020). \r\nIn New Zealand, insurance signals are motivating the government \r\nto address adaptation funding mechanisms (Boston and Lawrence, \r\n2018; CCATWG, 2018). Some insurers offer premium discounts to \r\ncustomers with reduced risk (Drill et  al., 2016), with increasing \r\npremiums reflecting known risk and no cover for some hazards in risky \r\nlocations (CCATWG, 2017). Special excess payments are available for \r\nflood hazard so customers take responsibility for part of the claim, \r\nwith increasing premiums to reflect known and foreseeable risk and \r\ndowngrading cover from replacement value to market value (Bruyere \r\net  al., 2020)"


id: 3f638e6c1b396acbf3a4f63312023b0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7360
content:
" Retreat by private insurers from risky locations could \r\nincrease the unfunded fiscal risk to the government (Storey and \r\nNoy, 2017), creating moral hazard (Boston and Lawrence, 2018). The \r\nlitigation risk from failing to take adaptation action (Hodder, 2019) \r\ncould affect financial markets and government policy settings, creating \r\ncascading impacts across society (Lawrence et al., 2020b) CRO Forum, \r\n2019). For some climate risks, national governments act as 'last resort' \r\ninsurers (CCATWG, 2017), but this could become unsustainable (CRO \r\nForum, 2019)."


id: 22dd83156f355004173638a49212b5ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 2936
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"The energy sector is highly vulnerable to climate change (high \r\nconfidence). Oil and gas systems are vulnerable to storms, fires, \r\ndrought, floods, sea level rise (SLR), extreme heat and fires, which can \r\ndamage infrastructure, slow production and add to operational costs \r\n(Smith, 2013). The electricity system is vulnerable to high temperatures \r\nreducing generator and network capacity and increasing failure \r\nrates and maintenance costs (AEMO, 2020a). Fires (including those \r\nsparked by electrical distribution lines) pose risks to assets. Smoke \r\ncan cause electricity transmission to trip, and high winds reduce wind\u0002energy capacity and threaten the integrity of transmission lines. Low \r\nrainfall reduces hydro-energy capacity and increases the demand \r\nfor desalination energy. Higher sea level may affect some low-lying \r\ngeneration, distribution and transmission assets, and compound \r\nextreme weather events can cause outages (Vose and Applequist, \r\n2014; Lawrence et al"


id: 6a19a728a8e38b163fc5a129ca041b6c
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", 2016; AEMO, 2020b; AEMO, 2020a; ESCI, 2021). \r\nFor example, in September 2016, a major windstorm in South Australia \r\ndamaged 23 transmission towers and cut power to over 900,000 \r\nhouseholds. In February 2017, the South Australian energy system \r\nfailed to cope with a heatwave-related jump in demand, causing power \r\ncuts to 40,000 homes (Steffen et  al., 2017). In April 2018, a storm \r\nover Auckland, New Zealand left 182,000 properties without power \r\n(Bell, 2018). The 2019/2020 Australian heatwaves and fires caused \r\nwidespread blackouts that disrupted communications, transport and \r\nemergency response capacity (Box 11.1)."


id: 36e578d6423cbf15111beaa216bb0a00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Climate-related impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander \r\nPeoples, countries (traditional estates) and cultures have been observed \r\nacross Australia and are pervasive, complex and compounding (high \r\nconfidence) (Green et  al., 2009) (11.5.1), for example, the loss of \r\nbiocultural diversity, nutritional changes through the availability of \r\ntraditional foods and forced diet change, water security and loss of land \r\nand cultural resources through erosion and SLR (Table 11.10) (TSRA, \r\n2018). Moreover, these impacts are being experienced now particularly \r\nin low-lying geographical areas--especially in the Torres Strait Islands \r\n(Mosby, 2012; Kelly, 2014; Murphy, 2019; Hall et al., 2021). Estimates \r\nof the loss from fire impacts on ecosystem services that contribute to \r\nthe well-being of remotely located Indigenous Australians were found \r\nto be higher than the financial impacts from the same fires on pastoral \r\nand conservation lands (Sangha et al"


id: fef17917b94b7ff9ceb8248ec13887c3
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"Recognition of the role of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples \r\nin identifying solutions to the impacts of climate change is slowly \r\nemerging (UN, 2018), having been largely excluded from meaningful \r\nrepresentation from the conception of climate change dialogue through \r\nto debate and decision-making (Nursey-Bray et  al., 2019). Honouring \r\nthe United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and \r\nsocial justice values would support self-determination and the associated \r\nopportunity for Indigenous Australians to develop adaptation responses \r\nto climate change (Langton et al., 2012; Nursey-Bray and Palmer, 2018; \r\nNursey-Bray et al., 2019), including the adaptive capacity opportunities \r\navailable through Indigenous knowledge (Liedloff et al., 2013; Petheram \r\net al., 2015; Stewart et al., 2019) (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter \r\n18)"


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" The Uluru Statement from the Heart proposes a pathway and \r\nroadmap forward for enhanced representation of Aboriginal and Torres \r\nStrait Islander Peoples in decision-making in Australia (Ululru Statement, \r\n2017). Table 11.11 provides examples of traditional Indigenous practices \r\nof adaptation to a changing climate. However, due to Indigenous \r\nmethods of knowledge sharing and knowledge holding, such knowledge \r\nrelies disproportionately on elders and seniors, who form a very small \r\nportion of the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples of \r\nAustralia, and is limited in the formal literature (ABS, 2016)."


id: 4b053dce1910e82bdb85267cdc543ccf
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"Climate impacts are cascading, compounding and aggregating across \r\nsectors and systems due to complex interactions (high confidence) \r\n(Pescaroli and Alexander, 2016; Challinor et  al., 2018; Zscheischler \r\net al., 2018; Steffen et al., 2019; AghaKouchak et al., 2020; CoA, 2020e; \r\nLawrence et al., 2020b; Simpson et al., 2021) (Boxes 11.1, 11.3, 11.4, \r\n11.5 and 11.6). Cascading impacts propagate via interconnections \r\nand systemic factors, including supply chains, shared reliance on \r\nconnected biophysical systems (e.g., water catchments and ecosystems), \r\ninfrastructure, essential goods and services and the exercise of \r\ngovernance, leadership, regulation, resources and standard practices \r\n(e.g., in planning and building codes), including lock-in of past decisions \r\nand experience (CSIRO, 2018; Lawrence et al., 2020b)"


id: a643e8c6314c9175b940099d430a495b
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" The capacity of \r\ncritical systems such as information, communication and technology, \r\nwater infrastructure, health care, electricity and transport networks, is \r\nbeing stretched, with impacts cascading to other systems and places, \r\nexacerbating existing hazards and generating new risks (Cradock\u0002Henry, 2017) (11.3.6; 11.3.10; Box 11.1). Temporal or spatial overlap \r\nof hazards (e.g., drought, extreme heat and fire; drought followed by \r\nextreme rainfall) are compounding impacts (Zscheischler et al., 2018) \r\nand affecting multiple sectors."


id: dcd7bc27c755bc42aaf7bfd005c7f1ed
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"In New Zealand, the emphasis has been on rebuilding after climate \r\ndisasters, rather than anticipatory adaptation (Boston and Lawrence, \r\n2018). Australia is similarly focused on disaster response and recovery, \r\neven though investment in disaster resilience can provide a cost:benefit \r\nratio of 1:2 to 1:11 through reduced post-disaster recovery and \r\nreconstruction (GCA, 2019). Recent Australian and state government \r\nspending on direct recovery from disasters was around AUD$2.75 billion \r\nper year, compared to funding for natural disaster resilience of \r\napproximately AUD$0.1 billion per year(Deloitte, 2017b). The Australian \r\ngovernment is supporting most of the 80 recommendations from the \r\nRoyal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, \r\nincluding establishing a disaster advisory body and a resilience and \r\nrecovery agency (CoA, 2020e; CoA, 2020b)"


id: a109c6eae7290275518d8d9a9a825575
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" Australia and New Zealand \r\nprovide humanitarian and disaster assistance across the Pacific, which \r\nis increasingly focused on climate adaptation and the SDGs (Brolan \r\net  al., 2019) as cyclones and floods become amplified by climate \r\nchange (Fletcher et al., 2013) (Table 11.3). Climate change may increase \r\ncurrent migration flows to and impacts on diaspora in Australia and "


id: b43dfc237e288018817e49351ef11c25
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"There is growing awareness of the need for more proactive adaptation \r\nplanning at multiple scales and across sectors, and a better \r\nunderstanding of future risks and limits to adaptation is emerging \r\n(medium confidence) (Evans et al., 2014; Archie et al., 2018; Christie \r\net al., 2020; MfE, 2020a). Disaster risk reduction is being positioned as \r\npart of climate change adaptation (Forino et al., 2017; CDEM, 2019; \r\nForino et al., 2019; CoA, 2020e; CSIRO, 2020). Public and private climate \r\nadaptation services are informing climate risk assessments, but they \r\nare characterised by fragmentation, duplication, inconsistencies, poor \r\ngovernance and inadequate funding; addressing these gaps presents \r\nadaptation opportunities (CCATWG, 2018; Webb et  al., 2019; NESP \r\nESCC, 2021) (Table 11.15a, Table 11.15b). Large infrastructure asset \r\nplanning is starting to factor in climate risks, but implementation is \r\nuneven (Gibbs, 2020)"


id: b0693edc2323fc4da2c9c70a64dff141
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" Local governments in Australia are increasingly \r\nimplementing adaptation plans, but few monitor or evaluate actual \r\noutcomes or know how to (Scott and Moloney, 2021)."


id: 52c5e79665f2fca3e60d3a947478214d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Australia has a National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, \r\na National Recovery and Resilience Agency (11.5.2.3), and the First \r\nNational Action Plan to implement the National Disaster Risk Reduction \r\nFramework which acknowledges climate change as a disaster risk \r\ndriver (Home Affairs, 2020). States and territories have climate change \r\nadaptation strategies with plans to address them (Table 11.15a), with \r\nsome adaptation implementation at the state level and, increasingly, at \r\nthe local government level (Jacobs et al., 2016; Warnken and Mosadeghi, \r\n2018) (Table 11.15a). In coastal zones, however, few local government \r\nplanning instruments are being applied (Warnken and Mosadeghi, \r\n2018; Harvey, 2019; Robb et  al., 2019; Elrick-Barr and Smith, 2021). \r\nSome businesses and industry sectors are recognising climate-related \r\nrisks and adaptation planning (11.3.4; 11.3.7; 11.3.10) (Harris et al., \r\n2016; Hennessy et al., 2016; CBA, 2019)"


id: b05d4adf778f13f33e7d9ce9edb82762
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" There is an opportunity for \r\nAustralia to undertake a national risk assessment and to develop a \r\nnational climate adaptation implementation plan that is aligned with \r\nParis Agreement expectations of a national-level system for adaptation \r\nplanning, monitoring and reporting (Morgan et al., 2019)."


id: 1e52a7bc56d2ba13225562766660bbe7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"There are many barriers to starting adaptation pre-emptively (very \r\nhigh confidence) (CCATWG, 2018) (Table 11.16). Recent institutional \r\nchanges in New Zealand indicate that this is changing (11.7.1; \r\nTable 15b). Many groups are yet to engage deeply with climate change \r\nadaptation (Kench et al., 2018), and some adaptation processes are \r\nbeing blocked (Pearce et al., 2018; Garmestani et al., 2019; Alexandra, \r\n2020) or exploited to deflect from mitigation responsibilities (Smith \r\nand Lawrence, 2018; Nyberg and Wright, 2020). Some actors \r\nare resistant to using climate change information (Tangney and \r\nHowes, 2016; Alexandra, 2020). Fear of litigation and demands for \r\ncompensation can contribute to this reluctance (Tombs et al., 2018; \r\nO'Donnell et al., 2019)and is increasingly inviting litigation and other \r\ncosts (Hodder, 2019; Bell-James and Collins, 2020)"


id: dbf2e06d29fe55a27dd17e5c6c1e07f5
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" Jurisprudence \r\nis evolving from cases on projects to cases about decision-making \r\naccountability in the public and private sectors (Bell-James and Collins, \r\n2020; Peel et  al., 2020) and rights-based cases (Peel and Osofsky, \r\n2018). National and sub-national governments may become exposed \r\nto unsustainable fiscal risk as insurers of last resort, which can lead \r\nto inequitable outcomes for vulnerable groups and future generations \r\n(11.3.8), path dependencies and negative effects on physical, social, \r\neconomic and cultural systems (Hamin and Gurran, 2015; Boston and \r\nLawrence, 2018). Cross-scale governance tensions can prevent local \r\nadaptation initiatives from performing as intended (Tschakert et al., \r\n2016; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019). Adaptation that draws on Maori \r\ncultural understanding in partnership with local government in New \r\nZealand can lead to more effective and equitable adaptation outcomes \r\n(MfE, 2020a)."


id: 5ec73ab18cf86f93b6cc97cb865a6dab
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"Decision makers face the challenge of how to adapt when there are \r\nongoing knowledge gaps and uncertainties about when some climate \r\nchange impacts will occur and their scale, for example coastal flooding \r\n(Box  11.6) or extreme rainfall events and their cascading effects \r\n(Box  11.4) (very high confidence). No-regrets decisions are likely to \r\nbe insufficient (Hallegatte et al., 2012). A perception exists in some \r\nsectors that all climate risks are manageable based on past experience \r\n(CCATWG, 2017). Projected impacts, however, are outside the range \r\nexperienced, meaning that decisions must be made now for long-lived \r\nassets, land uses and communities exposed to the key risks (Paulik \r\net  al., 2019a; Paulik et  al., 2020) often under contested conditions \r\nwhere adaptation competes with other public expenditures (Kwakkel \r\net al., 2016)"


id: efb97295a22bdf15266b8c5529aedf6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" New planning approaches being used across the region \r\ncan enable more effective adaptation, for example continual iterative \r\nadaptation (Khan et  al., 2015), rapid deployment of decision tools \r\nappropriate for addressing uncertainties (Marchau et  al., 2019) \r\nand transformation of governance and institutional arrangements \r\n(Boston and Lawrence, 2018) (Table 11.17). Recognising co-benefits \r\nfor mitigation and sustainable development can help incentivise \r\nadaptation (11.3.5.3, 11.8.2)."


id: bb7254ababe53d0a1966aff7859c2a2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Communities' vulnerabilities are dynamic and uneven (high confidence). \r\nIn Australia, 435,000 people in remote areas face particular challenges \r\n(CoA, 2020e). Some groups do not have the time, resources or oppor\u0002tunity to participate in formal adaptation planning as it is currently or\u0002ganised (Victorian Council of Social Service, 2016; Tschakert et al., 2017; \r\nMathew et al., 2018). Linguistically diverse groups can be disadvantaged \r\nby social isolation, language barriers and others' ignorance of the knowl\u0002edge and skills they can bring to adaptation (Shepherd and van Vuuren, \r\n2014; Dun et al., 2018) (11.1.2). Social, cultural and economic vulnerabil\u0002ities, biases and injustices, such as those faced by many women (Eriksen, \r\n2014; Parkinson, 2019) and non-heterosexual groups and gender mi\u0002norities (Dominey-Howes et al., 2016; Gorman-Murray et al., 2017), can \r\ndeepen impacts and impede adaptation; (Fitzgerald et al., 2019; Mar\u0002shall et al"


id: 2e520851069bc33e1499844387929b5d
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"to prioritise and how adaptation should be implemented (Kwakkel \r\net al., 2016) (Colliar and Blackett, 2018). Participatory climate change \r\nscenario planning can test assumptions about the present and the \r\nfuture (Mitchell et  al., 2017; Serrao-Neumann and Choy, 2018; \r\nChambers et al., 2019; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2019c) and help envision \r\npeople-centred, place-based adaptation (Barnett et al., 2014; Lindsay \r\net  al., 2019). Social network analysis can inform engagement and \r\ncommunication of adaptation (Cunningham et al., 2017). Knowledge \r\nbrokers, information portals and alliances can help communities, \r\ngovernments and sector groups to better access and use climate \r\nchange information (Shaw et al., 2013; Funfgeld, 2015; Lawrence and \r\nHaasnoot, 2017). Novel approaches to building climate change literacy \r\nand adaptation capability go hand in hand with dedicated expert \r\norganisational support (Stevens and O'Connor, 2015; CCATWG, 2018; \r\nPalutikof et al., 2019c; Salmon, 2019)"


id: 313cfca8ae5a2e94448dc28a3ee1816c
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"Adaptation to climate risks and global mitigation of greenhouse \r\nemissions determine whether development pathways are climate\u0002resilient (Chapter 18). In the near term, progress towards climate resilient \r\ndevelopment can be monitored by progress on the SDGs. According to \r\ngovernment reports (Figure 11.6) (OECD, 2019a), current and projected \r\ntrajectories fall short of meeting all targets (Allen et  al., 2019). Key \r\nclimate risks for the region (11.6, Table 11.14) affect all of the SDGs, \r\nand pre-existing societal inequalities exacerbate climate risks (11.3.5). \r\nProjected climate risks combined with underlying SDG indicators will \r\nincreasingly impede the region's capacity to achieve and maintain a \r\nnumber of SDGs, including sustainable agriculture, affordable and clean \r\nenergy, sustainable cities and communities, life below water and life on \r\nland (OECD, 2019a). Reducing these risks would require significant and \r\nrapid emission reductions to keep global warming to 1.5degC-2"


id: eb73f280e54c638317337fb5eb71fa0d
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"Current global emissions reduction policies are projected to lead to a \r\nglobal warming of 2.1degC-3.9degC by 2100 (Liu and Raftery, 2021), leaving \r\nmany of the region's human and natural systems at very high risk and \r\nbeyond adaptation limits (high confidence). With higher levels of warming, \r\nadaptation costs increase, loss and damages grow, and governance and \r\ninstitutional responses reduce adaptive capacity. Underlying social and \r\neconomic vulnerabilities and injustices further reduce adaptive capacity, \r\nexacerbating disadvantage in particular groups in society. Sustainable \r\ndevelopment across and beyond the region will help reduce shared \r\nadaptation challenges (11.5.1.2). Effective adaptation avoids lock-in and \r\npath dependency, reduces vulnerabilities, increases flexibility to change, \r\nbuilds adaptive capacity and advances SDGs, thereby improving intra\u0002and intergenerational justice (11.5, 11.6, 11.7)"


id: 3fb11653c9da477d65e63ac0f81ed2d0
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" Reducing greenhouse \r\ngas emissions and structural inequalities is key to achieving the SDGs \r\nand contributing to climate resilient development."


id: 636b42797ad4dfa63d83e2f9854149d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Integrated and inclusive adaptation decision-making can contribute to \r\nclimate resilient development by better mediating competing values, \r\ninterests and priorities and helping to reconcile short- and long\u0002term objectives, as well as public and private costs and benefits, in \r\nthe face of rapidly and continuously changing risk profiles (very high \r\nconfidence) (Gorddard et al., 2016; MfE, 2017a; Schlosberg et al., 2017) \r\n(11.5.2). Use of new tools and approaches (Table 11.18) to address \r\nsystem interactions that match the scale and scope of the problem \r\ncan result in more effective adaptation, including proactive and \r\nanticipatory governance and institutional enablers (11.7, Table 11.17) \r\n(Schlosberg et al., 2017; Boston and Lawrence, 2018)"


id: 3451983ad7d446813a73213aa4e41cd0
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" Building cities \r\nand settlements that are resilient to the impacts of climate change \r\nrequires the simultaneous consideration of infrastructural, ecological, \r\nsocial, economic, institutional and political dimensions of resilience, \r\nincluding political will, leadership, commitment, community support, \r\nmulti-level governance and policy continuity (Torabi et al., 2021)."


id: ca533ef9b2b84d177ffb72fa2f64f8f
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"main sources of income for the area (Salazar et al., 2016) (Figure 12.2c). \r\nAdditional pressure on the land comes from illegal activities, pollution \r\nand induced fires. These changes exacerbate the impacts of climate \r\nchange and make the region a key player in the future of the world \r\neconomy and food production (IPBES, 2018a). The region boasts the \r\nlargest tropical forest on the planet and other important biomes of high \r\nbiodiversity on mountains, lowlands and coastal areas. It can potentially \r\ncontinue its agricultural expansion and development at the expense of \r\nsubstantially reducing the areas of natural biomes. Indigenous Peoples \r\nand smallholder families are lacking adequate climate policies combined \r\nwith institutions to protect their property rights; this could result in a \r\nmore sustainable process of agricultural expansion, without substantially \r\nincreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the vulnerability of \r\nthose populations (high confidence) (Sa et al"


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"Central and South America (CSA) is a highly diverse region, both \r\nculturally and biologically. It has one of the highest levels of biodiversity \r\non the planet (Hoorn et al., 2010; Zador et al., 2015; IPBES, 2018a) \r\n(Cross-Chapter Paper [CCP] 1: Biodiversity Hotspots) and a wealth of \r\ncultural diversity resulting from more than 800 Indigenous Peoples \r\nwho share the territory with European and African descendants and \r\nmore recent Asian migrants (CEPAL, 2014). Moreover, it is one of the \r\nmost urbanised regions in the world, with some of the most populated \r\nmetropolitan areas (UNDESA, 2019). Several countries in the region \r\nhave experienced sustained economic growth in recent decades, \r\nmaking important advances in reducing poverty in the area"


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" Yet it is a \r\nregion of substantial social inequality including the highest inequality \r\nin land tenure, where a large percentage of the population remains \r\nbelow the poverty line, unequally distributed between rural and \r\nurban areas and along aspects like gender and race; these groups are \r\nhighly vulnerable to climate change and natural extreme events that \r\nfrequently affect the region (high confidence) (ECLAC, 2019b; Busso \r\nand Messina, 2020; Poveda et al., 2020)."


id: 47231d827c2d00d27d677afb80ca8632
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Climate projections indicate increases in temperature for the entire \r\nregion by 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but rainfall changes will vary \r\ngeographically, with a notable reduction of -22% in northeastern Brazil \r\nand an increase of +25% in SES. Significant dependency on rainfed \r\nagriculture (>30% in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua) indicates \r\nhigh sensitivity to climatic variability and change and represents a \r\nchallenge for food security (high confidence) (SRCCL Chapter 5, Mbow \r\net al., 2019). Undernutrition has worsened since 2014 in CSA (SRCCL \r\nChapter 5, Mbow et  al., 2019). Evidence of climate-change impacts \r\non food security is emerging from IKLK studies in SA. Municipalities \r\nin CA with a high proportion of subsistence crops tend to have fewer \r\nresources for adaptation and more vulnerable to climate change (SRCCL \r\nChapter 5, Mbow et  al., 2019)"


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vector_id: 22820
content:
" Rising temperature and decreased \r\nrainfall could reduce agricultural productivity by 2030, threatening the \r\nfood security of the poorest populations (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, Magrin \r\net  al., 2014). Though reduced suitability and yield for beans, coffee, \r\nmaize, plantain and rice are expected in CA (SRCCL Chapter 5, Mbow \r\net al., 2019), limiting the warming to 1.5degC, compared with 2degC, are \r\nprojected to result in smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, \r\nwheat and other cereal crops for CSA (high confidence) (SR15 Chapter \r\n3, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). The heat stress is expected to reduce \r\nthe suitability of Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica, but it can improve \r\nin high-latitude areas in SA (SRCCL Chapter 4, Olsson et  al., 2019). \r\nThere is limited evidence that these declines in crop yields may result in \r\nsignificant population displacement from the tropics to the sub-tropics \r\n(SR15 Chapter 3, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: e8bbc08270b950039bb09e4a37fa4ee7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34130
content:
"The combination of continued anthropogenic disturbance, particularly \r\ndeforestation, with global warming may result in dieback of forest in \r\nthe region (medium confidence) (SR15 Chapter 3, Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2018). Losses of biomass as high as 40% are projected in CA \r\nwith a warming of 3degC-4degC, and the Amazon may experience a \r\nsignificant dieback at similar warming levels (SR15 Chapter 3, Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et  al., 2018). Advances in second-generation bioethanol \r\nfrom sugarcane and other feedstock will be important for mitigation. \r\nHowever, agricultural expansion results in large conversions in tropical \r\ndry woodlands and savannahs in SA (Brazilian Cerrado, Caatinga and \r\nChaco) (high confidence) (SRCCL Chapter 1, Arneth et al., 2019). The \r\nexpansion of soybean plantations in the Amazonian state of Mato \r\nGrosso in Brazil reached 16"


id: 5fb5811faa17c1981e79e1433b4107cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12633
content:
"8% yr-1 from 2000 to 2005; and oil palm, a \r\nsignificant biofuel crop, is also linked to recent deforestation in tropical \r\nCA (Costa Rica and Honduras) and SA (Colombia and Ecuador), \r\nalthough lower in magnitude compared to deforestation from soybean \r\nand cattle ranching (WGII AR5 Chapter 27, Magrin et al., 2014)."


id: a03fe3cece9dd5a0dac8496e941b88e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22747
content:
"temperature and rainfall (high confidence) (Figure 12.4; Table 12.1). \r\nIn Honduras, rainfall and relative humidity were positively correlated \r\nwith the occurrence of haemorrhagic dengue cases (Zambrano et al., \r\n2012). In Costa Rica, temperature and rainfall were correlated to \r\ncattle rabies outbreaks and mortality during 1985-2016 (Hutter et al., \r\n2018); incidence of leishmaniasis showed cycles of 3  years related \r\nto temperature changes (Chaves and Pascual, 2006); and snakebites \r\nwere more likely to occur at high temperatures and were significantly \r\nreduced after the rainy season for the period 2005-2013 (Chaves \r\net  al., 2015). In Panama, rainfall was associated with an increased \r\nnumber of malaria cases among the Gunas, an Indigenous People \r\nwith high vulnerability living in poverty conditions on small islands \r\naffected by SLR (Hurtado et al., 2018)"


id: 5a8ec748c3aefd06d7fc9dced12257a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11763
content:
" These correlations point to a \r\npossible change in disease incidence with climate change; evidence of \r\nthat change is yet to be reported in the literature because longitudinal \r\nstudies are lacking in the region."


id: 759b0a07e530cddf4fee2284fc152cd7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16094
content:
"Food insecurity is a serious impact of climate change in a region where \r\n10% of the GDP depends on agriculture, livestock and fisheries (very \r\nhigh confidence) (ECLAC et al., 2015; CEPAL et al., 2018; Harvey et al., \r\n2018; BCIE, 2020). Crop losses largely result from highly variable \r\nrainfall and seasonal droughts, which have increased significantly in \r\nrecent decades (Table 12.3) (CEPAL and CAC-SICA, 2020), particularly \r\nthe observed changes in the MSD that reduces rainfall at the onset \r\nof the rainy season (May-June) (Anderson et  al., 2019). Small and \r\nsubsistence farmers experience the highest impact because they \r\npractice rainfed agriculture (Imbach et  al., 2017), along with poor \r\nneighbourhoods, which face socioeconomic and physical barriers for \r\nadapting to climate change (Kongsager, 2017). In 2015, precipitation \r\ndiminished between 50% and 70% of its historic average, causing \r\na loss of up to 80% of beans and 60% of maize, leaving 2"


id: 8af72d033242a8b230ae55aac7f50816
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19398
content:
"5 million \r\npeople food insecure, 1.6 million of whom were in the Dry Corridor of \r\nCA (ECLAC et al., 2015; FAO, 2016a). In 2019, the region entered its \r\nfifth consecutive drought year, with 1.4 million people in need of food \r\naid. Seasonal-scale droughts are projected to lengthen by 12-30%, \r\nintensify by 17-42% and increase in frequency by 21-42% in RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the century (Depsky and Pons, \r\n2021)."


id: 3baabcd2b8a5376a6b8560362778855e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6743
content:
"Impacts on rural livelihoods, particularly for small and medium-sized \r\nfarmers and Indigenous Peoples in mountains, include an overall \r\nreduction in production, yield (Table 12.4), suitable farming area and \r\nwater availability (high confidence) (Walshe and Argumedo, 2016; \r\nBouroncle et al., 2017; Hannah et al., 2017; Imbach et al., 2017; Harvey \r\net al., 2018; Batzin, 2019; Donatti et al., 2019). Bean production in El \r\nSalvador, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala, is projected to decrease, \r\nusing the Decision Support for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) \r\nunder the A2 scenario, by 19% for 2050, whereas maize production, \r\ndepending on the water retention capacity of soils, will drop between \r\n4% and 21% by 2050 (CEPAL et al., 2018). In Guatemala, the yield of \r\nrainfed maize is expected to decrease by 16% by 2050 under RCP8"


id: 4d3027f1227335ba459835beaecf4ee0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9576
content:
"5 \r\nusing the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison GGCMI; yields \r\nfor rainfed sugarcane are expected to drop by 44% and irrigated \r\nsugarcane by 36% under the same modelling conditions (Castellanos \r\net al., 2018). Rice production is expected to decrease by 23% under \r\nscenario A2 by 2050 (CEPAL and CAC/SICA, 2013)."


id: a773a48f95771475a9e2432a3bf1c863
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23853
content:
"a 35% reduction of cultivated area expected by 2100 under the A2 \r\nscenario. The area suitable for beans is expected to shrink by 2050. \r\nProjections show that suitable areas with excellent capacity under \r\ncurrent conditions will decrease by 14%, mainly in Panama (41%) Costa \r\nRica (21%) and El Salvador (20%). The Species Distribution Model, \r\nusing the IPSL GCM, projects that the suitable zones for cacao and \r\ncoffee will shrink between 25% and 75% under RCP6.0 (Fernandez\u0002Manjarres, 2018; Fernandez Kolb et al., 2019). Warmer and dryer lower \r\nareas will become unsuitable for coffee and will drive its production \r\nto higher land (Laderach et al., 2013; Bunn et al., 2015). Under the \r\nA2 climate-change scenario, areas with excellent capacity for Arabica \r\ncoffee will decrease by 12% in CA; coffee yield will decrease in suitable \r\nzones whereby the extent of high yield (>0.8 T ha-1) zones is projected \r\nto shrink from 34% to 12%, whereas low-yield (<0"


id: 903659db05e73cb9f16c0a8ffd34500a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20222
content:
"3 T ha-1) zones will \r\nexpand from 14% to 36% by 2100 under the A2 scenario (CEPAL and \r\nCAC/SICA, 2014)."


id: 58eb19db16c330c14f650cc68ea7e089
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11484
content:
"Warming and drier conditions are projected through the reduction \r\nof total annual precipitation, extreme precipitation and consecutive \r\nwet days and an increase in consecutive dry days (Chou et al., 2014). \r\nHeatwaves will increase in frequency and severity in places close to \r\nthe equator like Colombia (Guo et al., 2018; Feron et al., 2019), with \r\na decrease but strong wetting in coastal areas, pluvial and river flood \r\nand mean wind increase (Mora et al., 2014). Models project a very likely\r\n2degC GWL increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and \r\ndecrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes. Nevertheless, \r\nmodels project inconsistent changes in the region for extreme \r\nprecipitation (low confidence) (Figure  12.6; WGI AR6 Table  12.14) \r\n(Ranasinghe et  al., 2021)"


id: d2684ba7d1dc452e0820ff142dcdd277
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30635
content:
" The main climate impact drivers in the \r\nregion, like extreme heat, mean precipitation and coastal and oceanic \r\ndrivers, will increase and snow, ice and permafrost will decrease with \r\nhigh confidence (WGI AR6 Table 12.6) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: ecfaa36d4f88343b17d47209cc8ee82b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34762
content:
"Increases in vector-borne diseases can be related to increases in \r\nrainfall and minimum temperatures during ENSO events (Stewart\u0002Ibarra and Lowe, 2013) and the expansion of the diseases' altitudinal \r\ndistribution (high confidence) (Lowe et  al., 2017; Lippi et  al., 2019; \r\nPortilla Cabrera and Selvaraj, 2020). ENSO events have been related \r\nto such diseases as dengue and leptospirosis (Quintero-Herrera et al., \r\n2015; Sanchez et  al., 2017; Arias-Monsalve and Builes-Jaramillo, \r\n2019); they can also lead to an increased incidence of chikungunya \r\n(Sections  7.2.2.1 and 7.3.1.3). Precipitation, relative humidity and \r\ntemperature have influenced dengue incidence in recent years (Mattar \r\net  al., 2013) (Table  12.1). Dengue cases are predicted to increase \r\nin the 1.5degC and the 3"


id: a5049ee1b5fa65f14d90a4d8396e2523
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23529
content:
"7degC warming scenarios by 2050 and 2100, \r\nwith increases ranging from 28,900 to 88,800 in Peru, 34,600 to \r\n110,000 in Ecuador, and 97,400 to 317,000 in Colombia, although \r\nthese scenarios do not consider the potential effects of vaccines or \r\nsocioeconomic trajectories (Colon-Gonzalez et al., 2018). Other studies \r\nfound that Aedes aegypti (arbovirus vector) will shift into higher \r\nelevations, increasing the populations at risk (Figure 12.5) (Lippi et al., \r\n2019). Climate change will contribute to increased malaria vectorial \r\ncapacity (high confidence) (Section  7.2.2.1) (Laporta et  al., 2015). \r\nIncreases in minimum temperature were associated with historical \r\nmalaria transmission when taking into consideration disease control \r\ninterventions and climate factors (Fletcher et  al., 2020). Figure  12.4 \r\nshows mixed changes in the number of months suitable for malaria \r\ntransmission, with low-lying areas in coastal regions becoming \r\nmore suitable"


id: 47483c5db1699e58900d4766a800494
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8599
content:
" Zoonotic tick-borne diseases and the epidemiology \r\nof tuberculosis are also influenced (Garcia-Solorzano et  al., 2019; \r\nRodriguez-Morales et al., 2019)."


id: 1f9f2d179636516567aa1400bae94b5e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2406
content:
"increased recruitment and growth of lowland species migrating \r\nupslope. Water scarcity can enhance tree mortality and decrease \r\nabove-ground carbon stocks (Alvarez-Davila et  al., 2017; McDowell \r\net  al., 2020). The agricultural frontier of crops, such as potatoes or \r\nmaize, is moving upwards (high confidence), following the freezing \r\nlevel height upward displacement (Morueta-Holme et  al., 2015; \r\nSkarbo and VanderMolen, 2016; Schauwecker et al., 2017; Vuille et al., \r\n2018). Modelling exercises agree with the observed impacts in species, \r\necosystem processes, crop impacts and related pests and diseases \r\n(high confidence) (Cernusak et al., 2013; Tovar et al., 2013; Ramirez\u0002Villegas et al., 2014; Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015; van der Sleen et al., \r\n2015; Lowe et al., 2017). Agricultural options are changing as a result \r\nof intra-seasonal temperature variation (Ponce, 2020). Changes in the \r\ntiming and amount of precipitation are also impacting agriculture \r\n(Table 12"


id: 455636758cef1ecbea74dce3071aff6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8329
content:
"Water flow has decreased in several basins, such as the Shullcas River \r\nin the Cordillera Huaytapallana in Peru, and is expected to decrease \r\nin the near future in places such as the Cordillera Blanca in Peru (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Baraer et al., 2012; Vuille et al., 2018; Somers et al., \r\n2019; Molina et al., 2020). Disruptions in water flows will significantly \r\ndegrade or eliminate high-elevation wetlands (high confidence) (Bury \r\net al., 2013; Dangles et al., 2017; Mark et al., 2017; Polk et al., 2017; \r\nCuesta et  al., 2019). Impacts on wetlands are affecting the wild \r\nvicuna and the domesticated alpaca (Duchicela et  al., 2019). New \r\nlakes represent a source of future hazards and water scarcity, as well \r\nas opportunities to serve as water reservoirs (Colonia et  al., 2017; \r\nDrenkhan et al., 2019). The timing and extent of peak water due to \r\nglacier shrinkage is spatially highly variable and has passed for a large \r\nnumber of tropical Andes glaciers (Hock et al., 2019)"


id: dbe6435adb3764736e60e2177c89a8f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32112
content:
" Cities dependent \r\non glacier melt have experienced high variability in domestic water \r\nsupply (Chevallier et al., 2011; Soruco et al., 2015; Mark et al., 2017), as \r\nshown in Case Study 2.7.3, but an increase in demand may also have \r\nan effect (Buytaert and De Bievre, 2012). Water provision is related to \r\nsocioeconomic issues (Drenkhan et al., 2015). Glacier retreat impacts \r\nAndean pastoralists (high confidence), as shown in Case Study 2.6.5.4."


id: 2c8ac4da0172d469cc69cbe71da72d1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4437
content:
"NWS houses several global priority areas for biodiversity conservation, \r\nincluding the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena terrestrial \r\nbiodiversity hotspots (Section CCP1.2.2; Manes et  al., 2021). \r\nBiodiversity in the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena is \r\nprojected to suffer negative impacts (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Figure  12.9). Invasive plant species \r\nmight benefit from climate change in these hotspots (Wang et  al., \r\n2017a). Species distribution is changing upslope due to increasing \r\nair temperature, leading to range contraction and local extinctions \r\nof highland species, whereas lowland species are experiencing range \r\ncontractions at the rear end and expansions in the front end, including \r\nvectors of diseases (high confidence) (Crespo-Perez et al., 2015; Duque \r\net al., 2015; Morueta-Holme et al., 2015; Moret et al., 2016; Aguirre \r\net al., 2017; Cuesta et al., 2017a; Seimon et al., 2017; Fadrique et al., \r\n2018; Tito et al"


id: 203f40018575a08bcb191ab9f2046c0d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2524
content:
", 2018; Zimmer et al., 2018; Cauvy-Fraunie and Dangles, \r\n2019; Cuesta et  al., 2019; Moret et  al., 2020; Rosero et  al., 2021). \r\nVegetation in summits of the northern Andes is particularly vulnerable \r\nbecause of a high abundance of endemic species with narrow thermal \r\nniches and lowland dispersal capacity in comparison to the central \r\nAndes (Cuesta et al., 2020)."


id: 4aa0ac05e573977116f6ddd4be54d983
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9147
content:
"Migration by Indigenous Peoples and rural resource-dependent \r\ncommunities to cities has increased due to urbanisation, development \r\nof extractive activities, agroindustry and infrastructure. Upon \r\nmigrating, they are forced to abandon their livelihoods in order to \r\nacquire temporary jobs and to live in poverty and exclusion conditions \r\non the periphery of the city (Cardoso et al., 2018). Between 60% and \r\n90% of the population in the urban centres of ADE live in conditions \r\nof moderate to high degree of vulnerability (Mansur et  al., 2016) \r\n(Figure  12.7). Amazon populations located in remote urban centres \r\nwith limited or non-existent roads are more vulnerable to extreme \r\nevents in relation to more connected urban centres (Parry et al., 2018). \r\nThese highly risky circumstances reduce the adaptive capacity of these \r\npopulations (Cardoso et al., 2018)"


id: c492bb019b1f87d44a584428fa8f435c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28503
content:
" Nevertheless, the dynamics of the \r\nadaptive capacity of Indigenous Peoples and rural resource-dependent \r\ncommunities is a complex issue. There is a robust and growing body "


id: 2aa7d035875c497a303a753ab17d005c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4137
content:
"Several vector-driven diseases such as malaria and leishmaniasis \r\nare endemic in the Amazon region; however, socio-environmental \r\nchanges are altering their natural dynamics (Confalonieri et  al., \r\n2014b). An important relationship between the outbreak of infectious \r\ndiseases and changes in climatic events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat \r\nwaves, ENSO) or environmental events (e.g., deforestation, dam \r\nconstruction and habitat fragmentation) has been found to exist for \r\nthe Brazilian Amazon (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Pan et  al., 2014; Filho et  al., 2016; Nava et  al., 2017; \r\nEllwanger et  al., 2020). These impacts are more severe in poor \r\npopulations with limited access to health services (Pan et al., 2014; \r\nWHO and UNFCCC, 2020). In the case of Venezuela, the impact of \r\nclimate change on the epidemiology of malaria has been studied, \r\nshowing significant influence on transmission in the Amazonia area \r\nof the country (Figure 12.4) (Laguna et al"


id: c03591906685ca9836f4e445c88cdf43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27796
content:
", 2017). Other studies from \r\nVenezuela have documented the role of ENSO in dengue outbreaks \r\n(Vincenti-Gonzalez et  al., 2018). Table  12.1 shows the changes \r\nobserved in reproduction potential for dengue in the different sub\u0002regions due to changes in rainfall and temperature. Forest fires pose \r\na major threat to public health in the region because they relate \r\nto an increase in hospital admissions due to respiratory problems, \r\nmainly among children and the elderly (Figure  12.5). The amount \r\nof air pollutants detected is sometimes higher than that observed \r\nin large urban areas, especially during dry seasons when biomass \r\nburning increases (Aragao et al., 2016; de Oliveira Alves et al., 2017; \r\nParalovo et al., 2019)."


id: 2b36b8a3db8f9df02f8da2a597bf0c36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4234
content:
"The Amazon has been identified as one of the areas of persistent and \r\nemergent regional climate-change hotspots in response to various \r\nrepresentative concentration pathways (Diffenbaugh and Giorgi, \r\n2012). In Bolivia, CMIP3/5 models projected an increase in temperature \r\n(2.5degC-5.9degC), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, \r\nboth ensembles agreed on less rainfall (-19%) during drier months \r\n(June-August and September-November), with significant changes in \r\ninterannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter \r\nmonths (January-March) (Seiler et  al., 2013). As a consequence of \r\nhigher temperatures and reduced rainfall, an increased water deficit \r\nwould be expected in the Brazilian Pantanal (Marengo et  al., 2016; \r\nBergier et  al., 2018; Llopart et  al., 2020) with high confidence"


id: 1ac85372da52477daab78e541abaef8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1684
content:
" The \r\nlargest increases in warmer days and nights, and aridity, drought and \r\nsignificant increases in fire occurrence are calculated over the Amazon \r\narea (Huang et  al., 2016). Over the entire region, by mid-century \r\n(RCP4.5) there is medium confidence of increases in river and pluvial \r\nfloods, aridity and mean wind speed, and extreme heat, fire weather \r\nand drought are projected to increase with high confidence (WGI AR6 \r\nTable 12.6; Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: aae73aa0fe00ba58ced3995f2a56d3e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24406
content:
"Droughts in 2009/2010 and 2015/2016 increased tree mortality rate \r\nin Amazon forests (Doughty et  al., 2015; Feldpausch et  al., 2016; \r\nAnderson et  al., 2018b), while productivity showed no consistent \r\nchange; some authors reported a drop in productivity (Feldpausch \r\net al., 2016), while others found no significant changes (Brienen et al., \r\n2015; Doughty et  al., 2015). Nevertheless, the combined effect of \r\nincreasing tree mortality with variations in growth results in a long\u0002term decrease in C stocks in forest biomass, compromising the role \r\nof these forests as a C sink (high confidence) (Brienen et  al., 2015; \r\nRammig, 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020) (Figure 12.9). Under the RCP8.5 \r\nscenario for 2070, drought will increase the conversion of rainforest \r\nto savannah (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Anadon et al., 2014; Olivares et al., 2015; Sampaio et al., 2019)"


id: 5f61bc340125d3bdbfebb817eabd52ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12580
content:
" The \r\ntransformation of rainforest into savannah will bring forth biodiversity \r\nloss and alterations in ecosystem functions and services (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Anadon et al., 2014; \r\nOlivares et al., 2015; Sampaio et al., 2019). In the Amazon basin, the \r\nsynergistic effects of deforestation, fire, expansion of the agricultural \r\nfrontier, infrastructure development, extractive activities, climate \r\nchange and extreme events may exacerbate the risk of savannisation \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Nobre et al., \r\n2016b; Bebbington et al., 2019; Sampaio et al., 2019; Rammig, 2020)."


id: b2f445e71991d20f570253b90d9acf03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 25668
content:
"A large expansion in cropland area (soybean, corn and sugarcane) was \r\nobserved in the past two decades in SAM, in response to increased \r\nlocal and global demand for biofuels and agricultural commodities \r\n(high confidence) (Lapola et al., 2014; Cohn et al., 2016). Feedbacks \r\nto the climate system resulting from such land use changes are \r\nintricate. The clear-cutting of Amazon forest and Cerrado savannah in \r\nthe region led to a local warming due to an increase in the energy \r\nbalance and evapotranspiration (Malhado et  al., 2010); in contrast, \r\nthe replacement of pasture by agriculture have led to a local cooling \r\neffect, due to changes in the surface albedo (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, medium agreement). Deforestation of the Amazon \r\nfor pastures and soybean have decreased evapotranspiration during \r\ndrought months and caused a localised lengthening of the dry season \r\nin northwestern SAM by 6.5 (+- 2"


id: e4a00aaeb99a5385e0462f2ee34b79c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"It is not surprising, therefore, that while SAM is the region in CSA that \r\nexperienced the highest temperature increase in the last century, it is \r\nwhere most of the fire spots in the sub-continent are located, owing \r\nalso to the prevalent use of fires in pasturelands (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Bowman et al., 2009). Recently, \r\nda Silva Junior et al. (2020) reported 6,708,350 and 6,188,606 fire foci \r\nin Cerrado and Amazonia, between 1999 and 2018, corresponding to \r\n80% of the total observed in Brazil. The occurrence of extreme droughts \r\nhas affected the carbon and water cycles in large areas of the Amazon \r\nrainforest (high confidence) (Lapola et al., 2014; Agudelo et al., 2019), \r\nin particular in its southern and eastern portions, where deforestation \r\nrates are higher"


id: 956453f5d5e4a209af02e5c5d46ba923
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 21001
content:
" The loss of carbon in the Amazon region considering \r\nthe combined effect of land use change in the southern portion of the \r\nregion bordering Cerrado and Pantanal and global carbon emission \r\nscenarios can be as high as 38% at 4degC of warming, but limited to 8% \r\nif the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5degC is achieved (medium confidence, \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Burton et al., 2021), driving the \r\nregion to be a net carbon source to the atmosphere (Gatti et al., 2021). \r\nA recent extreme drought was estimated to affect the photosynthetic "


id: 7c92085827c70a5ad18fe4215a89db96
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 17194
content:
"Temperature extremes have likely increased in the intensity and \r\nfrequency of hot extremes and decreased in the intensity and frequency \r\nof cold extremes (Donat et  al., 2013; Bitencourt et  al., 2016) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table  11.13, Seneviratne et  al., 2021). In a vast transition zone \r\nbetween the Amazon and the Cerrado Biomes within the region, \r\nanalysis of seasonal precipitation trends suggested that almost \r\n90% of the observational sites showed a reduction in the length of \r\nthe rainy season in the region (Debortoli et  al., 2015), in the period \r\n1971-2014 (Marengo et al., 2018), confirming the growth in length of \r\nthe dry season. Changes in the hydrological and precipitation regimes, \r\ncharacterised by a reduction in rainfall in southern Amazonia, in \r\ncontrast to an increase in northwestern Amazonia, and overall increases \r\nin extreme precipitation and in the frequency of consecutive dry days \r\nhave been reported by several authors (Fu et al., 2013; Almeida et al"


id: 1f3d5bfaad01e706ce13b72194a80613
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 2354
content:
", \r\n2017; Marengo et al., 2018; Espinoza et al., 2019a) with low confidence\r\n(WGI AR6 Table 11.14) ( Seneviratne et al., 2021) due to insufficient \r\ndata coverage and trends in available data generally not significant."


id: 28476c5815d20c99a72bab6e1d4cd793
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 3745
content:
"The largest expanses of remaining vegetation in the Cerrado biome \r\nare located in SAM, but the region has a small number of protected \r\nareas (only 7.5% of Cerrado vegetation occurs inside protected areas), \r\nwhich will leave fauna and flora with little room for moving across the \r\nlandscape in the face of climate change. Protected areas--Indigenous \r\nlands included--have significantly reduced forest clear-cutting in \r\nthe Amazon deforestation arc (most of which is inside SAM) (high \r\nconfidence) (Nolte et al., 2013). However nearly 100 protected areas \r\nin the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal biomes inside SAM have been \r\nidentified as highly or moderately vulnerable to future climate change \r\nand demand serious adaptation interventions (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Feeley and Silman, 2016; Lapola \r\net al., 2019b)"


id: dc3345bef622547bbdc1149396496145
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Yet the maintenance of these protected areas or even the \r\nhalting of deforestation may do little to impede a large-scale persistent \r\necosystem shift to an alternative state (crossing a tipping point) of \r\nthe Amazon rainforest or even more subtle changes caused by climate \r\nchange in the region (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Aguiar et al., 2016a; Boers et al., 2017; Lapola et al., 2018; \r\nLovejoy and Nobre, 2018)."


id: c68ec1d74d9b3211dd923b8c55e8fcb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 28805
content:
"The Amazon and the Cerrado are among the largest and unique \r\nphytogeographical domains in SA. The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the \r\nmost diverse savannah in the world, with more than 12,600 plant \r\nspecies, with 35% being endemic (high confidence) (Forzza et  al., \r\n2012). Historic land cover change and concurrent climate change in \r\nthe region strongly impacted the biodiversity and led to the extinction \r\nof 657 plant species for the Cerrado, which is more than four times the \r\nglobal recorded plant extinctions (high confidence) (Strassburg et al., \r\n2017; Green et al., 2019). The effects of climate change, expressed by \r\ndrought and heatwaves, lead to plant stress, compromising growth \r\nand increasing mortality (Yu et  al., 2019). The fauna dependent on \r\ndew water was strongly impacted by the 1.6degC temperature rise that \r\noccurred from 1961 to 2019 (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Hofmann et  al., 2021)"


id: 558d53a74eedab1e88bb7477e7570cc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Modelling outcomes \r\nproject impacts in forest ecosystems in the region, with persistent \r\nwarming and significant moisture reduction (Anjos et al., 2021), leading \r\nto a potential change in the ecosystem structure and distribution in the \r\nregion (medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(Government of Brazil, 2020)."


id: e4b53bed7269ec6a7def26a135a242a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 33460
content:
"Observations from recent past droughts in SAM indicate how the \r\nincidence of respiratory diseases may worsen under a drier and warmer \r\nclimate. Northwest SAM had an approximately 54% increase in the \r\nincidence of respiratory diseases associated with forest fires during \r\nthe 2005 drought compared to a no-drought 10-year mean (high \r\nconfidence) (Ignotti et al., 2010; Pereira et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2014). \r\nIt is estimated that more than 10 million people are exposed to forest \r\nfires in the deforestation arc, a region comprising several Brazilian \r\nstates in the southern and western parts of the Amazon rainforest, with \r\nseveral impacts on human health including potential exacerbation of the \r\nCOVID-19 crisis in Amazonia (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (de Oliveira et  al., 2020) (Table  12.5)"


id: bb515b5e18e02428b9a25540e92597ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 27021
content:
" Increases in \r\nhospital admissions, asthma, DNA damage and lung cell death due to \r\nthe inhalation of fine particulate matter represent an increase in public \r\nhealth system costs (high confidence) (Ignotti et al., 2010; Silva et al., \r\n2013; de Oliveira Alves et  al., 2017; Machin et  al., 2019). The patchy \r\nlandscape created by forest clearing contributes to a rising risk of \r\nzoonotic disease emergence by increasing interactions between wildlife, \r\nlivestock and humans (medium confidence: low evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Dobson et al., 2020; Tollefson, 2020). Recent studies also \r\nsuggest an influence of climate change in zoonotic diseases, such as \r\nOrthohantavirus and Chapare viral infections, rodent-borne diseases, \r\nin some areas of Bolivia (Escalera-Antezana et  al., 2020a; Escalera\u0002Antezana et  al., 2020b)"


id: 7513b81a74ff0df553d75d89055d3a0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 16013
content:
" Extreme fluctuations in Amazon River levels \r\nwere associated with a significant increase in the incidence of diarrhoea, \r\nleptospirosis and dermatitis (de Souza Hacon et al., 2019; Government \r\nof Brazil, 2020). According to a comprehensive characterisation of future \r\nheatwaves and alternative RCPs scenarios, Brazilian urban areas in \r\nthe SAM region are projected to face increasing related mortality from \r\n400% to 500% in the period 2031-2080 compared to the period 1971-\r\n2020, under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population \r\nscenario (medium confidence: low evidence, medium agreement) (Guo \r\net  al., 2018). Table  12.2 shows the increase in days of exposure to \r\nheatwaves already observed in the region.\r\nThe high risk of floods (high-frequency and costly damage) is centred \r\nin the Brazilian states of Acre, Rondonia, Southern Amazonas and Para "


id: 446800ffdbac1fcef1a31206dfbd8e09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 8185
content:
"climate change is expressed differently in several sub-regions. Extreme \r\nfloods in the southern Amazon and Bolivian Amazon floodplains were \r\ndescribed and related to the exceptionally warm sub-tropical South \r\nAtlantic ocean (high confidence) (Espinoza et  al., 2014), causing \r\nhigh economic impacts (losses in crop and livestock production and \r\ninfrastructure) and number of fatalities (very high confidence) (Ovando \r\net al., 2016). In contrast, declines in stream flow, particularly in the dry \r\nseason, expressed by the ratio of runoff to rainfall, are observed for \r\nthe southern part of the Amazon basin (high evidence) (Molina-Carpio \r\net al., 2017; Espinoza et al., 2019b; Heerspink et al., 2020). Observed \r\nprecipitation reduction in the Cerrado region impacted main water supply \r\nreservoirs for important cities in the Brazilian central region, leading to \r\na water crisis in 2016/2017 (Government of Brazil, 2020) and affecting \r\nhydropower energy generation (Ribeiro Neto et al"


id: 4ae0ef5250364d3e7c2f541e2a9a09ca
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", 2016). Modelling \r\nstudies project decreases in the river discharge rate on the order of 27% \r\nfor the Tapajos basin and 53% for the Tocantins-Araguaia basin for the \r\nend of the century, which may affect freshwater biodiversity, navigation \r\nand generation of hydroelectric power (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Marcovitch et al., 2010; Mohor et al., 2015). \r\nThis region also holds one of the largest floodplains in the world, the \r\nPantanal. The climatic connection of Pantanal regions to the Amazon, \r\nand the influence of deforestation in local precipitation (Marengo et al., \r\n2018) has implications for conservation of ecosystem services and water \r\nsecurity in Pantanal (high confidence) (Bergier et al., 2018). Impacts of \r\nextreme drought, with increasing numbers of dry days and the peak of "


id: c6921928981105cd6d11956e867a6a5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 28808
content:
"Natural systems in NES are also exposed to climate change. In \r\nterrestrial ecosystems, 913,000 km2\r\n of NES' dry forest Caatinga \r\nvegetation (Silva et  al., 2017) is exposed to predicted increases in \r\ndryness. Despite what has been previously suggested, the Caatinga has \r\nhigh biodiversity and endemism (Silva et al., 2017), which vulnerable \r\nto habitat reduction due to climate change and agricultural expansion \r\n(Silva et  al., 2019b). Fifty-two percent of the freshwater fish (203 \r\nspecies) are endemic (Lima et al., 2017) and are exposed to predicted \r\nreduction in river flow due to climate change (Marengo et al., 2017; \r\nde Jong et al., 2018). The coastal waters contain a separate marine \r\necoregion due to its uniqueness (Spalding et al., 2007). The region is \r\nresponsible for 99% of Brazilian shrimp production, which is exposed \r\nto SLR and increases in ocean temperature and acidification (Gasalla \r\net  al., 2017)"


id: ae45beb130f33f1796f48c6df5397a9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Most coral reefs in the Southern Atlantic Ocean are \r\nalong NES's coast (Leao et al., 2016), increasing its conservation and \r\ntouristic value. The 685 km2\r\n of coral reefs along NES's coast (likely \r\nan underestimate [Moura et al. 2013; UNEP-WCMC et al. 2018]) are \r\nexposed to increased sea temperatures."


id: 321de09c0d1da1b293aa8917a4c08d0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"The projected warming for the extreme annual maximum temperatures \r\n(TXx) over NES is +2degC for the 1.5degC scenario and about +2.5degC \r\nfor the 2degC scenario (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). An increased \r\nnumber of tropical nights with minimum temperatures exceeding \r\nthe 20degC threshold is projected (Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012). \r\nIn general, extreme heat will increase and cold spells decrease with \r\nhigh confidence. A decrease in total precipitation is projected with \r\nhigh confidence, with an increase in heavy precipitation events and an \r\nincrease in dryness (medium confidence). Increases in drought severity \r\ndue to the combination of increased temperatures, less rainfall and \r\nlower atmospheric humidity (5 to 15% relative humidity reduction) \r\ncreate water deficits, which are projected for the entire region after \r\n2041 (3-4 mm d-1 reduction), particularly over western NES and over \r\nthe semiarid region (Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015; Marengo et al., \r\n2017)"


id: 46236fdad8551a14547697da230242e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Recent studies predict strong negative impacts of climate change on \r\nNES's agriculture (high confidence) (Ferreira Filho and Moraes, 2015; \r\nNabout et al., 2016; Gateau-Rey et al., 2018) (Figure 12.9; Table 12.4). \r\nNES concentrates the bulk of the predicted loss of regional gross \r\ndomestic product (GDP) associated with agriculture in Brazil (Ferreira \r\nFilho and Moraes, 2015; Forcella et  al., 2015). Although agriculture \r\nmakes a modest contribution to the region's economy, its drop could \r\nhave a severe impact on the poorest rural household by shrinking the \r\nagricultural labour market and increasing food prices (Ferreira Filho \r\nand Moraes, 2015; Government of Brazil, 2020). The expected increase \r\nin dryness is also predicted to impact the region's hydroelectric power \r\ngeneration (Marengo et al., 2017; de Jong et al., 2018). SLR has also \r\nbeen reported to impact coastal cities such as Salvador, destroying \r\nurban constructions (Government of Brazil, 2020)"


id: 90b6f98a13064cfd2b1c06d262c13df2
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content:
" SLR, increased \r\nocean temperature and acidification may also negatively impact NES's \r\nshrimp aquaculture production (Figure  12.8) (Gasalla et  al., 2017). \r\nAlong with climate change, overfishing has driven exploited marine \r\nfish species to collapse (Verba et al., 2020)."


id: 1347509cd93e8c13511bd44827858ec7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Biodiversity in NES is severely threatened by climate change in \r\nterrestrial (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement)\r\nand freshwater (low confidence: low evidence, high agreement)\r\necosystems (Figure 12.9). There are few studies projecting the likely \r\nimpact of climate change on NES's biodiversity, especially its endemic \r\nfreshwater fish. Recent studies have already reported the reduction in \r\nseveral endemic plant species affecting pollination and seed dispersal \r\n(Bech Gaivizzo et al., 2019; Cavalcante and Duarte, 2019; Silva et al., \r\n2019b). Studies with terrestrial animals predict that most groups will \r\nbe negatively impacted by climate change (de Oliveira et  al., 2012; \r\nArnan et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2018b; Montero et al., 2018). Changes \r\nin the abundance of coral reef community and extreme reduction in \r\ncoral cover have been observed in NES (de Moraes et al., 2019; Duarte \r\net al., 2020)"


id: 2ebabe1f937be6637d34aab9814473db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" A number of observed coral bleaching events associated \r\nwith an abnormal increase in sea temperatures have occurred in NES \r\n(Krug et al., 2013; Leao et al., 2016; de Oliveira Soares et al., 2019) \r\n(Figure  12.8), but thus far mortality has remained low and corals \r\nhave been able return to normal values or remain stable following \r\nsea water temperature rise (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Leao et  al., 2016). Mangroves in the region have \r\nshown increased mortality, but they have also expanded their range \r\ninland (Figure 12.6) (Godoy and Lacerda, 2015; Cohen et al., 2018). \r\nFuture projections include mangrove landward expansion and lower \r\nmigration rates by 2100 (Cohen et al., 2018)."


id: 3cc99ef64af6033666d78b95a6ec4237
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"The impacts of intense drought have been reported in NES since 1780, \r\nwith severe losses in agricultural production, livestock death, increase \r\nin agricultural prices and human death (Figure 12.9) (Marengo et al., \r\n2017, 2020c; Martins et al., 2019; Government of Brazil, 2020; Silva \r\net al., 2020). The rural population already suffers from natural water \r\nscarcity in the countryside. The drought in 2012 was responsible for \r\nreducing up to 99% of the corn production in Pernambuco state \r\n(Government of Brazil, 2020). A predicted increase in drought, coupled \r\nwith inadequate soil management practices by small farmers and \r\nagribusiness, increases the region's susceptibility to desertification \r\n(Spinoni et al., 2015; Vieira et al., 2015; Mariano et al., 2018; Tomasella \r\net al., 2018; Marengo et al., 2020c). In NES, 70,000 km2\r\n have reached a \r\npoint at which agriculture is no longer possible (Government of Brazil, \r\n2020)"


id: f227f01040e7599c04457f33b06e2cf3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Intense droughts have triggered migration to urban centres \r\nwithin and outside NES (Confalonieri et  al., 2014a; Government of \r\nBrazil, 2020). More than 10 million people have been impacted by the \r\ndrought of 2012/2014 in the region, which was responsible for water \r\nshortage and contamination, increasing death by diarrhoea (Marengo \r\nand Bernasconi, 2015; Government of Brazil, 2020)."


id: d0fd7b7207619af23c7bd7cd1537a797
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 30414
content:
"Higher temperatures and SLR, changes in rainfall patterns, and an \r\nincreased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events could \r\ngenerate risks to the energy and infrastructure sectors and to the \r\nmining and metals industry. In the River Plate basin, urban floods \r\nhave become more frequent, causing infrastructure damage and \r\nsometimes substantial mortality (high confidence) (Barros et  al., \r\n2015; Zambrano et al., 2017; Nagy et al., 2019; Mettler-Grove, 2020; \r\nMorales-Yokobori, 2021; Oyedotun and Ally, 2021). A large increase \r\nin landslides and flash floods is also predicted for the Brazilian \r\nportion of SES, where they are responsible for the majority of deaths \r\nrelated to disasters in the country (high confidence) (Debortoli \r\net al., 2017; Haque et al., 2019; Saito et al., 2019; Marengo et al., \r\n2020d; da Fonseca Aguiar and Cataldi, 2021). Due to uncontrolled \r\nurban growth, 21"


id: 64e7572c2c68d350326e51950f4c52a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"5  million people living in the large Brazilian \r\ncities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte (estimate \r\nfor 2019 fromIBGE [2020]]) are expected to be exposed to water \r\nscarcity, despite widespread water availability in the region (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Marengo et al., 2017, Marengo et al., \r\n2020b; Lima and Magana Rueda, 2018)."


id: 9c99ea7e488497defc146bd189b92ea2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 22181
content:
"The expected increase in temperature will also expose the populations \r\nin large cities to extreme heat. Urban heat islands are already a reality \r\nin large cities in the region, such as Buenos Aires (high confidence) \r\n(Wong et al., 2013; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; \r\nMettler-Grove, 2020), Rio de Janeiro (high confidence) (Ceccherini \r\net al., 2016; Neiva et al., 2017; Geirinhas et al., 2018; Peres et al., 2018; \r\nSarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; de Farias et al., \r\n2021) and Sao Paulo (high confidence) (Mishra et  al., 2015; Barros \r\nand Lombardo, 2016; Ceccherini et al., 2016; Vemado and Pereira Filho, \r\n2016; de Azevedo et al., 2018; Lima and Magana Rueda, 2018; Ferreira \r\nand Duarte, 2019; Lapola et al., 2019a; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, \r\n2019; Wu et al., 2019), with reported impact on human health in the \r\nlatter (medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(e.g., Araujo et al. 2015; Son et al. 2016; Diniz et al. 2020)"


id: 4d51dc8aa79b63a330c801377b03c918
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vector_id: 9594
content:
" These cities \r\nalone represent 22 million people exposed to increased heat (estimate \r\nfor 2019 fromIBGE [2020]] and from INDEC [2010])."


id: db4b6823ce9f3673d2662f61beab6d2b
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"Despite the observed increase in rainfall in the region, between 2014 \r\nand 2016 Brazil endured a water crisis that affected the population and \r\neconomy of major capital cities in the SES region (Blunden and Arndt, \r\n2014; Nobre et al., 2016a). Extremely long dry spells have become more \r\nfrequent in southeastern Brazil, affecting 40  million people and the \r\neconomies in cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte, \r\nwhich are the industrial centres of the country (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, medium agreement) (PBMC, 2014; Nobre et  al., \r\n2016a; Cunningham et al., 2017; Marengo et al., 2017, 2020b; Lima and \r\nMagana Rueda, 2018). They have also impacted agriculture, affecting \r\nfood supply and rural livelihoods, especially in Minas Gerais (Nehren \r\net al., 2019). Agricultural prices increased by 30% in some cases, and \r\nharvest yields of sugar cane, coffee and fruits suffered a reduction of 15-\r\n40% in the region"


id: 4ebd7a71da314e405138b698596d2625
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" The number of fires increased by 150%, and energy \r\nprices increased by 20-25%, as most electricity comes from hydroelectric \r\npower (Nobre et  al., 2016a). In Argentina, projected changes in the \r\nhydrology of Andean rivers associated with glacier retreat are predicted \r\nto have negative impacts on the region's fruit production (low evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Barros et al., 2015)."


id: b5402cc67160911a2fb606528c91de07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 26059
content:
"SES is a global priority for terrestrial biodiversity conservation and \r\nis home to two important biodiversity hotspots--the Atlantic Forest \r\nand Cerrado--which are among the world's most studied biodiversity \r\nhotspots in connection with climate-change impact on biodiversity, \r\nespecially for terrestrial vertebrates (Section CCP1.2.2; Manes et al., \r\n2021). An increasing number of studies show that the Atlantic Forest \r\nand Cerrado are at risk of biodiversity loss, largely due to projected \r\nreductions of species' geographic distributions in many different \r\ntaxa (e.g., Loyola et al. 2012, 2014; Ferro et al. 2014; Hoffmann et al. \r\n2015; Martins et al. 2015; Aguiar et al. 2016b; Vale et al. 2018; Borges \r\net al. 2019; Braz et al. 2019; Vale et al. 2021)"


id: 694c6bef98989c434d50b19cb57ff705
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Cerrado savannahs are \r\nprojected to be the hotspot most negatively impacted by climate \r\nchange within SA, mostly though range contraction of plant species \r\n(very high confidence), while the Atlantic Forest is projected to be \r\nhighly impacted especially though the contraction of the distribution of \r\nendemic species (very likely) (Section CCP1.2.2; Figure 12.10) (Manes \r\net al., 2021). Reductions in species' distribution are also projected in \r\nthe River Plate basin for sub-tropical amphibians (Schivo et al., 2019) \r\nand the river tiger (Salminus brasiliensis), a keystone fish of economic \r\nvalue (Ruaro et al., 2019). Farming of mussels and oysters in the region \r\nis predicted to be negatively impacted by climate change, particularly \r\nSLR, and ocean warming and acidification (Gasalla et al., 2017). Some \r\nmore localised habitats are also at risk of losing area due to climate "


id: e095a72128c4e21b311f1b780420147e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional \r\nClimate Model forced by two global climate models (Chou et al., 2014) \r\nprojected warmer conditions (more than 1degC) for the entire sub-region \r\nby 2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario (medium confidence). Extremely \r\nwarm December-January-February days as well as the number of \r\nheatwaves per season are expected to increase by 5-10  times in \r\nnorthern Chile (Feron et al., 2019), likely increasing in the intensity and \r\nfrequency of hot extremes over the entire region (WGI AR6 Table 11.13) \r\n(Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Drier conditions (medium confidence), by \r\nmeans of a decrease in total annual and extreme precipitation, are \r\nexpected to increase for southern Chile, but inconsistent changes are \r\nexpected in the sub-region (low confidence) (Chou et al., 2014) (WGI \r\nAR6 Table 11.14) (Seneviratne et al"


id: 6e57d1b1a522369cebfe30b26bfe16b6
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content:
", 2021) with high confidence upon \r\nan increase in fire weather and a decrease in permafrost and snow \r\nextent (WGI AR6 Table 12.6, Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: a22fdb026dbe47509c87b6390efbbcdd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 23086
content:
"Rapid changes in temperature and precipitation regimes make \r\nterrestrial ecosystems highly vulnerable to climate change (high \r\nconfidence) (Salas et  al., 2016; Fuentes-Castillo et  al., 2020) \r\n(Figure 12.7). Terrestrial ecosystems dominated by exotic species (e.g., \r\npine) with lower landscape heterogeneity and degraded soils and that \r\nare close to settlements and roads are highly vulnerable to wildfires \r\nin comparison to forests dominated by native trees (high confidence) \r\n(Altamirano et al., 2013; Castillo-Soto et al., 2013; Cobar-Carranza et al., \r\n2014; Salas et al., 2016; Banales-Seguel et al., 2018; Gomez-Gonzalez \r\net  al., 2018; Sarricolea et  al., 2020). Changes in land use, artificial \r\nforestation, deforestation, agricultural abandonment and urbanisation \r\nhave provoked a permanent degradation of old-growth forests, \r\nputting at risk the biodiversity, recreation and ecotourism (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Rojas et  al"


id: 46cb0d81bee5db9d4cdf81ec18b78c4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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", 2013; \r\nNahuelhual et al., 2014). Marine coastal ecosystems such as dunes, \r\nsandy beaches and wetlands show high deterioration, decreasing their \r\nability to mitigate extreme events (medium confidence: low evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Gonzalez and Holtmann-Ahumada, 2017; Ministerio \r\nde Medio Ambiente de Chile, 2019)."


id: 8140e212fdc6d34c4d95df88ad1d529a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"The water sector shows a very high vulnerability (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 12.7) mainly due to weak water governance focused on market \r\naspects (e.g., inter-sectoral water transactions, setting rates, granting \r\nconcessions, waiving the water right) (high confidence) (Hurlbert and \r\nDiaz, 2013; Valdes-Pineda et al., 2014; Barria et al., 2019; Hurlbert and \r\nGupta, 2019; Munoz et al., 2020a; Urquiza and Billi, 2020b). Potable \r\nwater and adequate sanitation are available in SWS; however, water \r\navailability in Chile is unevenly distributed in rural communities (high \r\nconfidence) (Valdes-Pineda et  al., 2014; Nelson-Nunez et  al., 2019). \r\nSpatial differences in water availability are enhanced by strong \r\npopulation growth, economic development, mining activities and \r\nthe high dependence of agriculture on irrigation (high confidence) \r\n(Stathatou et  al., 2016; Northey et  al., 2017; Fercovic et  al., 2019)"


id: d8d04c36dc96a1d3889be5c00fa557a2
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vector_id: 31621
content:
" \r\nDroughts in SWS are a major threat to water security (high confidence) \r\n(Aitken et  al., 2016; Nunez et  al., 2017) as river streamflows are \r\nhighly dependent on the interannual to decadal climate conditions, \r\nsnow melting processes and rainfall events (Boisier et al., 2016) and \r\nimpacted by land uses and changes in irrigated agriculture (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Vicuna et al., 2013; \r\nFuentes et al., 2021)."


id: e898096a35e902841e034a24e0186de5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 34101
content:
"Large-scale agricultural growth has increased vulnerability to climate \r\nchange by disfavouring traditional agriculture, the homogenisation \r\nof the biophysical landscape and the replacement of traditional \r\ncrops and native forests with exotic species like pines and eucalyptus \r\n(high confidence) (Torres et al., 2015), where farmers' perceptions of \r\nclimate change are highly dependent on educational level and access \r\nto meteorological information (low confidence) (Roco et  al., 2015). \r\nAgricultural systems owned by Indigenous Peoples (i.e., Mapuche, \r\nQuechua and Aymara farmers) seem to pose a lower level of vulnerability \r\nto drought and higher response capacity than non-Indigenous farmers \r\nthanks to the use of the traditional knowledge of specific management \r\ntechniques and the tendency to conserve species or varieties of crops \r\ntolerant to water scarcity (low confidence) (Montalba et  al., 2015; \r\nSaylor et al., 2017; Meldrum et al., 2018)"


id: 5fbb0be6cbb52446ec126632e39ecec7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 12638
content:
" Fishery- and aquaculture\u0002related livelihoods are vulnerable to climate and non-climate drivers \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement), such as \r\nsea surface warming and precipitation reduction (Handisyde et  al., \r\n2017; Soto et al., 2019; Gonzalez et al., 2021), changes in upwelling \r\nintensity (low confidence) (Oyarzun and Brierley, 2019; Ramajo et al., \r\n2020), eutrophication and harmful algal bloom (HAB) events (Almanza \r\net al., 2019), a lack of observational elements and data management \r\n(Garcon et al., 2019) and events such as earthquakes and tsunamis \r\n(Marin, 2019)."


id: cb56deb86dbec3c04b9e0c716756bca6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 29541
content:
"Changes in temperature and droughts have impacted crops \r\nsignificantly (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Ray et al., 2015; Zambrano et al., 2016; Lesjak and Calderini, 2017; \r\nFerrero et al., 2018; Piticar, 2018; Haddad et al., 2019; Zuniga et al., \r\n2021). Table 12.4 shows the changes in crop growth duration, which \r\naffects yields. Higher negative numbers then indicate yield reduction \r\nfor the crop. Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation are \r\nexpected to impact the agriculture sector (i.e., fruits crops and forests) \r\nacross the entire sub-region, with the largest impacts in the northern \r\nand central zone (high confidence) (Mera et al., 2015; Zhang et al., \r\n2015; Silva et al., 2016; Lizana et al., 2017; Reyer et al., 2017; Toro\u0002Mujica et  al., 2017; Beya-Marshall et  al., 2018; Lobos et  al., 2018; \r\nO'Leary et al., 2018; Aggarwal et al., 2019; Avila-Valdes et al., 2020; \r\nFernandez et al., 2020; Melo and Foster, 2021)"


id: 7a87f3e556b5cd0ab0e73d0f9e56b446
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vector_id: 16848
content:
" Observed impacts and \r\nfuture projections warn that increasing temperatures and decreasing \r\nprecipitation will largely impact water demand by agricultural sectors \r\n(high confidence) (Novoa et  al., 2019; Pena-Guerrero et  al., 2020; \r\nWebb et al., 2020). Extreme climate events have caused Indigenous \r\nPeoples (e.g., Mapuche, Uru and Aymara) to experience water \r\nscarcity, a reduction in agricultural production and a displacement of \r\ntheir traditional knowledge and practices (medium confidence: low \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Parraguez-Vergara et al., 2016; Meldrum \r\net al., 2018; Perreault, 2020)."


id: 3dfe5b9bdbe5f0bfafefacff211bcdad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"There is low evidence on shoreline retreat attributed to climate change \r\n(Martinez et al., 2018; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de Chile, 2019), \r\nalthough increasing wind intensity along the central Chilean coast has \r\ncaused serious damage in coastal infrastructure and buildings (Winckler \r\net al., 2017) and changes in seawater properties and processes (low \r\nconfidence) (Schneider et  al., 2017; Aguirre et  al., 2018). Ocean and \r\ncoastal ecosystems in SWS are sensitive to upwelling intensity, which \r\naffects the abundance, diversity, physiology and survivorship of coastal \r\nspecies (high confidence) (Anabalon et  al., 2016; Jacob et  al., 2018; \r\nRamajo et al., 2020) (Figure 12.8). Increasing radiation and temperatures \r\nand reduced precipitation, in conjunction with increased nutrient load, \r\nhave increased HAB events, producing massive fauna mortalities (high \r\nconfidence) (Leon-Munoz et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b, SPM A8.2 and B8.3; \r\nQuinones et al., 2019; Soto et al"


id: a922deaf962595e23b1e22ec8fb7f748
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", 2019; Armijo et al., 2020). Multiple \r\nresources subjected to fisheries and aquaculture are highly vulnerable \r\nto storms, alluvial disasters, ocean warming, ocean acidification, \r\nincreasing ENSO extreme events and lower oxygen availability (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 12.8; Garcia-Reyes et al., 2015; Silva et al., 2015; \r\nDuarte et al., 2016, 2018; Lagos et al., 2016; Navarro et al., 2016; Lardies \r\net  al., 2017; IPCC, 2019b; Mellado et  al., 2019; Ramajo et  al., 2019; \r\nSilva et al., 2019a; Bertrand et al., 2020). Ocean and coastal ecosystems, \r\nespecially EEZs, will be highly impacted by climate change in the near \r\nand long term (high confidence) (Figure 12.8; Table SM12.3; Silva et al., \r\n2015; Silva et al., 2019a)."


id: f1b7c961a49dd1f7357b93d5383d3463
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"Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security in \r\nPatagonia by providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants \r\nused for meat, wool and milk production. There is a lack of information \r\nregarding the combined effects of climate change and overgrazing and \r\nthe consequences for pastoral livelihoods that depend on rangelands. \r\nTemperature and the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation \r\nwere important controls of vegetation structure in Patagonian \r\nrangelands (Gaitan et al., 2014). They found that over two-thirds of the \r\ntotal effect of precipitation on above-ground net primary production \r\n(ANPP) was direct, and the other third was indirect (via the effects \r\nof precipitation on vegetation structure)"


id: 843f11f68f578374146d6cc40ebc1172
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content:
" Thus, if evapotranspiration \r\nand drought stress increase as temperature increases and rainfall \r\ndecreases in water-limited ecosystems, a greater exposure of ranchers \r\nto a reduction in stocking rate and, therefore, family income would be \r\nexpected (medium confidence). The number of farmers (mainly family \r\nenterprises) exposed to climatic hazards (drought) is approximately \r\n70,000-80,000, who have 14-15  million sheep in Argentina (Peri \r\net al., 2021)."


id: cec5426345eaa60f85603508e3887fda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"There were inconsistent trends and insufficient data coverage on \r\nextreme temperatures and precipitation (low confidence), but an \r\nincrease in the frequency of meteorological droughts was observed \r\nwith medium confidence (Dereczynski et al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020; \r\nWGI AR6 Tables 11.13, 11.14, 11.15, Seneviratne et al., 2021; WGI AR6 \r\nTable  12.3, Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). An increase in precipitation in \r\nTrelew, no change for Comodoro Rivadavia, both stations located in \r\neastern Patagonia, and negative trends in austral summer rainfall in \r\nthe southern Andes were observed (Vera and Diaz, 2015; Saurral et al., \r\n2017). Chile's wildfires in Patagonia (fire frequency and intensity) have \r\ngrown at an alarming rate (Ubeda and Sarricolea, 2016). Decreasing \r\nrainfall patterns in Punta Arenas is closely associated with variability \r\nat interannual to inter-decadal time scales of the main forcing system \r\nof climate in Patagonia"


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content:
" Snow cover extension (SCE) and snow cover \r\nduration decreased by an average of approximately 13 +- 2% and \r\n43 +- 20 d respectively from 2000 to 2016, due to warming rather \r\nthan drying (Rasmussen et al., 2007). In particular, analysis of spatial \r\npatterns of SCE indicates a slightly greater reduction on the eastern \r\nside (approximately 14 +- 2%) of the Andes Cordillera compared to \r\nthe western side (approximately 12 +- 3%). According to the longest \r\ntime series of glacier mass balance data in the Southern Hemisphere, \r\nthe Echaurren Norte glacier lost 65% of its original area in the period \r\n1955-2015 and disaggregated into two ice bodies in the late 1990s \r\n(Malmros et al., 2018; Perez et al., 2018)."


id: 414ef0c2e9aca82c53b64d9159ea17a6
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content:
"There are reports related to a decrease in survival, growth and higher \r\nvulnerability to drought and fire severity for species of native forests \r\ndue to climate change and wildfires (high confidence) (Mundo et al., \r\n2010; Landesmann et  al., 2015; Whitlock et  al., 2015; Jump et  al., \r\n2017; Camarero et  al., 2018; Venegas-Gonzalez et  al., 2018a). A \r\ncoincidence has been reported between major changes in regional \r\ndecline in the growth of forests with severe droughts due to climatic \r\nvariations over northern Patagonia (Rodriguez-Caton et  al., 2016). \r\nOnce the forest decline begins, other contributing factors, such as \r\ninsects (e.g., defoliator outbreaks), increase forest vulnerability or \r\naccelerate the loss of forest health of previously stressed trees (Piper \r\net  al., 2015). This region hosts unique temperate rainforests, which \r\nare particularly rich in endemic and long-lived conifer species (e.g"


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content:
", \r\nFitzroya cupressoides) and which may be vulnerable to declines in soil \r\nmoisture availability (Camarero and Fajardo, 2017). Patagonia will "


id: b7ddc846aec86d53f0b92faa162e8a54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Panel (b) indicates the references used and the level of vulnerability by sub-region. The numbers within the table indicate the reference used for the assessment in the following \r\norder: (1) Aitken et al. (2016); (2) Anderson et al. (2018b); (3) Banales-Seguel et al. (2018); (4) Bouroncle et al. (2017); (5) CAF (2014); (6) Carrao et al. (2016); (7) Donatti et al. (2019); \r\n(8) Eguiguren-Velepucha et al. (2016); (9) FAO (2020a); (10) FAO (2020b); (11) FAO (2021a); (12) FAO (2021b); (13) FAO (2021c); (14) FAO et al. (2021); (15) FAO and ECLAC (2020); \r\n(16) Ferreira Filho and Moraes (2015); (17) Filho et al. (2016); (18) Fuentes-Castillo et al. (2020); (19) FSIN and Global Network Against Food Crisis (2021); (20) Global Health Security \r\nIndex (2019); (21) Godber and Wall (2014); (22) Handisyde et al. (2017); (23) Hannah et al. (2017); (24) Immerzeel et al. (2020); (25) Inform Risk Index (2021); (26) Koutroulis et al. \r\n(2019); (27) Krishnamurthy et al. (2014); (28) Lapola et al"


id: a0e3cb2e4ff921f86e2d37dace8c269e
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content:
" (2019a); (29) Li et al. (2018); (30) Lin et al. (2020); (31) Mansur et al. (2016); (32) Martins et al. (2017); (33) Menezes et al. \r\n(2018); (34) Nagy et al. (2018);35) ND-Gain (2020); (36) Northey et al. (2017); (37) Olivares et al. (2015); (38) Pacifici et al. (2015); (39) Qin et al. (2020); (40) Romeo et al. (2020); (41) \r\nLiu and Chen (2021); (42) Silva et al. (2019b); (43) Soto Winckler and Del Castillo Pantoja (2019); (44) Soto et al. (2019); (45) Tomby and Zhang (2019); (46) Venegas-Gonzalez et al. \r\n(2018b); (47) Yeni and Alpas (2017); (48) Marengo et al. (2017); (49) Bedran-Martins et al. (2018); (50) Confalonieri et al. (2014a). Detailed methodology can be found in SM12.2."


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"systems and components for the corresponding sector (Figure 12.9). \r\nThis assessment is consistent with and complementary to the \r\nassessment in Section 12.3. A synthesis of these impacts (Figure 12.10) \r\nindicates the following: Climate change has or will have a major \r\nimpact on the observed and future decline of Andean glaciers and \r\nsnow (high confidence) and lead to the degradation of permafrost \r\nand destabilisation of related landscapes (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). Water quality is a major concern across the region, but \r\nthere is limited evidence of impacts of climate change on water quality \r\nas well as on groundwater. Climate change has had a significant \r\nimpact on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the NWS, SES and \r\nSWS sub-regions and a medium impact in the other sub-regions, but \r\nthe level of confidence varies across sub-regions"


id: e4f8dcf1702158289780d22e7716f5e6
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" Projections indicate \r\na strong impact of climate change on these ecosystems for the future \r\n(medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement). Many \r\naspects and assets of ocean and coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, \r\ncoral reefs, saltmarshes) were identified as being strongly impacted by \r\nclimate change, both for observed and future periods (high confidence) \r\n(Section 12.5.2; Figure 12.9)."


id: 8ff9442dff27e8eda02d2b01016642b9
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content:
"Assessment of key observed and projected impacts and risks shows \r\nthat in the CSA region several systems are already approaching critical \r\nthresholds under current warming levels, in particular glaciers in the \r\nAndes, coral reefs in CA (high confidence) and ocean and coastal \r\necosystems in virtually all sub-regions (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement). Some systems could cross these thresholds \r\nwith different levels of reversibility depending on the degree of future \r\nwarming, that is, glaciers in the Andes and coral reefs in CA, which will \r\nshow partial but irreversible loss already under low levels of warming \r\n(RCP2.6) (high confidence)"


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" The risk of large-scale ecological changes \r\nand biome shifts of the Amazon rainforest, that is, a transition from \r\ntropical forest into other biomes such as seasonal forest or savannah, \r\nis now assessed with medium confidence, with the extent of the \r\nchanges depending on the level of future warming and non-climatic \r\ndrivers (land use change, deforestation, forest fire practices)."


id: b2e93e3682a7bc853c8a957a11116ca7
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"CSA is one of the most biodiverse regions in the world, hosting \r\nunique socioecosystems that will be strongly impacted by climate \r\nchange (high confidence) (Section 12.3; Cross-Chapter Paper 1; CAF, \r\n2014; Camacho Guerreiro et al., 2016; IPBES, 2018a; Li et al., 2018; \r\nRetsa et  al., 2020). Warming has generated extreme heat events in \r\nmany parts of CSA (IPCC, 2019a) that, together with droughts and \r\nfloods, will seriously affect the integrity of terrestrial and freshwater \r\necosystems in the entire region (Section 12.3; CAF, 2014). A reduction \r\nin net primary productivity in tropical forests and glacier retreat in \r\nthe Andes, for example, are expected to cause significant negative \r\nsocioecological impacts (Feldpausch et  al., 2016; Lyra et  al., 2017; \r\nCuesta et al., 2019) (Case Study, 12.7.1)"


id: a96e3441406b42e6df76b4b65b450f89
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" Biodiversity hotspots in the \r\nregion are well assessed in the literature compared to other regions \r\nof the world, especially the Atlantic Forest, Mesoamerica and Cerrado \r\n(Section CCP1.2.2; Manes et  al., 2021). Up to 85% of evaluated \r\nnatural systems (species, habitats and communities) in the literature \r\nfor biodiversity hotspots since AR5 were projected to be negatively "


id: 76405ee32c5661d7d5edd89114cf2fb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Investing in actions aimed at protection, restoration and the \r\nsustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems represents a good \r\napproach to maintaining critical ecosystem services and constitutes \r\npart of a common strategy for adaptation, mitigation and disaster \r\nrisk reduction in the region (high confidence) (Kabisch et  al., 2016; \r\nScarano et al., 2018). These strategies also satisfy international forest \r\nand water conservation agendas in terms of optimising resources and \r\nsolutions (Strassburg et al., 2019). Global conservation and sustainable \r\ndevelopment commitments, such as the Aichi Targets (Convention on \r\nBiological Diversity [CBD]), Sustainable Development Goals (UN), \r\nthe NDCs under the Paris Agreement and the New York Declaration \r\non Forests, strongly rely on nature-based solutions (NbS) to achieve \r\ntheir objectives (Brancalion et al., 2019) (Figure 12.12)"


id: f738b8ad82c1be2841f1319f0088ea18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" The COVID-19 \r\noutbreak also brought attention to the need to preserve tropical \r\nforests as a means of preventing spillover of viruses from wildlife \r\nto humans, with concerns over that risk in the Amazon (Allen et al., \r\n2017b; Dobson et al., 2020; IPBES, 2020; Ferreira et al., 2021). These \r\nrepresent an important opportunity for ecosystem-based adaptation \r\n(EbA) to be at the core of NbS for climate change, access finance and \r\npromote climate resilient development pathways in CSA."


id: 5a3af0dead9a264ba653673dd183f7e3
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content:
"The conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture, pasture and other \r\nland uses in CSA has been identified as a major challenge to climate\u0002change adaptation in the region (high confidence) (Scarano et  al., \r\n2018; IPCC, 2019a). In the last three decades, SA has been a significant \r\ncontributor to the growth of agricultural production worldwide (OECD/\r\nFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2015), driven \r\npartly by increased international demand for commodities, especially \r\nsoybeans and meat (IPCC, 2019a). Between 2001 and 2015 about 65% \r\nof all forest disturbance in the region was associated with commodity\u0002driven deforestation (Curtis et al., 2018). High rates of native vegetation \r\nconversion in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay \r\nand Peru threaten important ecosystems (Amazon, Cerrado, Chacos and \r\nLlanos savannahs, Atlantic rainforest, Caatinga and Yungas) (Graesser \r\net al., 2015; FAO, 2016c)"


id: b6522079bf643f0b666515ab8ea8812e
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" Almost two-thirds of soy consumed in EU+ \r\ncomes from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay (IDH, 2020), increasing \r\nconversion risk in the Amazon, Cerrado and Gran Chaco. Despite "


id: da2018a2eb2c9c5c062511a396ba97e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"The Declaration on Protected Areas and Climate Change, presented by \r\n18 CSA countries during the United Nations Framework Convention \r\non Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties 21 (COP21), \r\nhighlights the fundamental role of protected areas in providing the \r\nso-called GI needed to implement climate-change mitigation and \r\nadaptation and safeguard the provision of essential ecosystem services \r\nand the livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples and local communities \r\n(Gross et  al., 2016). Protected area in CSA are underfunded (very \r\nhigh confidence). Latin American (including Mexico) governments \r\nallocate just about 1% of their national environmental budgets on \r\nprotected areas (about USD 1.18 ha-1 on average). This figure only \r\ncovers 54% of their basic needs, resulting in insufficient management. \r\nThe financing gap to achieve optimal needs for protected areas in \r\nCSA is approximately USD 700  million yr-1 (Bovarnick et  al., 2010)"


id: 303e2c8f688ffa0f686fb30369bc28c9
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" \r\nThis seriously compromises the management and delivery capacity \r\nof protected areas for climate-change adaptation and preparedness \r\nfor ongoing ecological transformation (van Kerkhoff et  al., 2019). \r\nFurthermore, to become a relevant mechanism for resilience, \r\nprotected areas need to be managed for this purpose (Mansourian \r\net  al., 2009). About 40% of protected areas in Latin America and \r\nthe Caribbean (including Mexico) have undertaken management \r\neffectiveness evaluations (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2020a). This is \r\nhardly representative of Aichi's Target 11, although far better than \r\nthe 11% global average. Collaborations with Indigenous Peoples and \r\nlocal communities are also an important issue to consolidate protected \r\nareas (Gross et al., 2016)"


id: 61efa36e3807a9b894ece739e3229928
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" In addition to protected areas as solutions \r\nfor climate-change adaptation and mitigation, there is also a need to \r\nprotect or restore ecosystems outside the protected areas, as illustrated \r\nby the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (Imbach et al., 2013)."


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"most profitable Amazon crop (Hansen et  al., 2013; Nepstad et  al., \r\n2014). Policies included territorial planning (protected areas, Indigenous \r\nterritories and land tenure), satellite monitoring and market and credit \r\nrestrictions on high-deforesting municipalities, plus some incentives to \r\nsmall farmers (Boucher et al., 2013; Hansen et al., 2013; Nepstad et al., \r\n2014; Castelo, 2015; Cunha et al., 2016a). It is important to highlight the \r\nimportant role of Indigenous territories, in addition to protected areas, in \r\nforest conservation in the Amazon (high evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(Schwartzman et  al., 2013; Barber et  al., 2014; Nepstad et  al., 2014; \r\nWalker et al., 2014b). These policies were partially funded by results\u0002based compensation through the Amazon Fund. Since 2012, however, \r\npolicies and institutions have weakened, and Amazon deforestation \r\nrates have started to rise (Carvalho et al., 2019), becoming more acute \r\nin recent years (Silva Junior et al., 2021)"


id: fe30c637e4115d831bd7c3c7788becf7
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" Conservation incentives, a new \r\ncomplementary and allegedly cost-effective approach, is increasingly \r\nbeing implemented in the region (Magrin et al., 2014). They include PES, \r\nREDD+, environmental certification and conservation easements, but \r\nremain controversial, and more research is needed on their effectiveness, \r\npossible negative side effects, participatory management systems \r\nand collective decision-making processes (Larson and Petkova, 2011; \r\nLocatelli et al., 2011; Pinho et al., 2014; Strassburg et al., 2014; Mistry \r\net al., 2016; Gebara and Agrawal, 2017; Scarano et al., 2018; Ruggiero \r\net al., 2019; To and Dressler, 2019; Vallet et al., 2019)."


id: b2607909383d94f0f20b4e06bf0135a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Protected areas have become an important component as enablers \r\nof national climate-change adaptation strategies. They increase \r\necosystems' adaptive potential, reducing climate risk and delivering \r\nnumerous ecosystem services and sustainable development benefits \r\nwhile playing an important role in climate-change mitigation (high \r\nconfidence) (Mackey et  al., 2008; Dudley et  al., 2010; Gross et  al., \r\n2016; Bebber and Butt, 2017; Dinerstein et  al., 2019; IPCC, 2019a). \r\nCSA already has a greater percentage of land (24.1%) under protected \r\nstatus than the world average (14.7%) (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, \r\n2020b). Some countries, including Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, \r\nNicaragua and Venezuela, have already met or surpassed the 30% CDB \r\nand IUCN goal (Dinerstein et al., 2019), and others, like Costa Rica and \r\nHonduras, are very close to doing so"


id: 5e4defd7e0654302b3012b3c3713f8cf
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content:
" In some cases, the establishment \r\nof protected areas not accompanied by collective decision-making \r\nprocesses has displaced local people or denied them access to natural \r\nresources, increasing their vulnerability to climate change (Brockington \r\nand Wilkie, 2015)."


id: 114cc01ebe00b524374fb19943c2dbb1
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"(high confidence) (NCs, NDCs and NAPs, https://unfccc.int). IKLK can \r\nbe very detailed and usually relates to people's priorities as identified \r\nby collective decision-making (Box 7.1) (Hurlbert et al., 2019, SRCCL \r\nSection 7.6.4; SRCCL Cross-Chapter Box 13 ILK; de Coninck et al., 2018, \r\nSR1.5 Section 4.3.5.5). In Manaus, central Amazon, fishermen perceive \r\nreductions in fish size, diversity and capture levels caused by droughts, \r\nwhile recognising that floods hinder access to fishing grounds \r\n(Keenan, 2015; Camacho Guerreiro et  al., 2016). In the Amazon \r\nfloodplains, small-scale fisher and farmer communities incorporate \r\ntheir knowledge on natural hydrologic and ecological processes into \r\nmanagement systems that reduce climate-change risk and impacts \r\n(Oviedo et  al., 2016). Smallholder grain farmers in Guatemala and \r\nHonduras implement EbA practices based on local knowledge (e.g"


id: e602d404186fe50c7fdf427fcc85efa4
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", \r\nlive fences, home gardens, shade trees in coffee plantations, dispersed \r\ntrees in corn fields and other food insecurity risk reduction practices) \r\n(Harvey et al., 2017; Chain-Guadarrama et al., 2018). There is, therefore, \r\ngreat potential for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem adaptation to \r\nclimate change in CSA, provided the right incentives and sociocultural \r\nprotective measures are in place (high confidence) (Section 12.5.10.4; \r\nTable SM12.7)."


id: 7df8c7ec1d0624bf34db01cf38e2ca4b
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"Ocean and coastal ecosystems provide suitable habitats for a high \r\nnumber of species that support important local fisheries, the tourism \r\nsector and the regional economy (high confidence) (Section  3.5; \r\nTable  3.9; Gonzalez and Holtmann-Ahumada, 2017; Venerus and \r\nCedrola, 2017; CEPAL, 2018; Carvache-Franco et  al., 2019; SROCC \r\nSection 5.4, Bindoff et al., 2019). There is high confidence that CSA ocean \r\nand coastal ecosystems are already being impacted by climate change \r\n(Figure 12.9, 12.10; Table SM12.3; Section 3.4; Section 5.4 in SROCC, \r\nBindoff et al., 2019) and are highly sensitive to non-climatic stressors \r\n(Figure  12.8; Table  SM12.3; Section  3.4)"


id: dd4ec9e358555968344a7d57ca510d60
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" Projections for CSA ocean \r\nand coastal ecosystems warn about significant and negative impacts \r\n(high confidence), which include major loss of ecosystem structure and \r\nfunctionality, changes in the distributional range of several species \r\nand ecosystems, major mortality rates and increasing numbers of coral \r\nbleaching events (Figure 12.9; Figure 12.10; Table SM12.3; Section 3.4; \r\nSROCC Sections 5.3, 5.4, Bindoff et al., 2019)."


id: 2bafb337580c155de73a4e6ec9a9eac0
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"The use of territorial planning tools, the promotion of sustainable \r\nresource exploitation, the adherence to certification schemes and the \r\nimplementation of management instruments, such as ecosystem-based \r\nmanagement (EbM), followed by the use of an integrated coastal zone \r\nmanagement, coastal marine spatial planning and capacity building, \r\necological risk assessments, have been the main strategies used to \r\nensure the sustainability of marine resources in fisheries across EEZs \r\nof CSA (high confidence) (Hellebrandt et al., 2014; Gelcich et al., 2015; \r\nSingh-Renton and McIvor, 2015; Gutierrez et  al., 2016a; Karlsson \r\nand Bryceson, 2016; Oyanedel et al., 2016; Debels et al., 2017; Isaac \r\nand Ferrari, 2017; Mariano Gutierrez et  al., 2017; Barragan and \r\nLazo, 2018; Bertrand et al., 2018; Lluch-Cota et al., 2018; Guerrero\u0002Gatica et al., 2020). Other strategies include the application of local \r\nregulations (e.g., closed seasons) (Fontoura et al"


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", 2016) and the use of \r\nparticipative programmes (Hellebrandt et al., 2014; Arroyo Mina et al., \r\n2016; Matera, 2016)."


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"There is low evidence about how the strategies and actions taken and \r\nimplemented in ocean and coastal systems of CSA have contributed \r\nto advance in the protection and conservation of ocean and coastal \r\necosystems. However, some important advances are visible in \r\nColombian Pacific areas with coral reefs (new conservation plans, \r\nresearch monitoring and conservation practices) (low confidence) \r\n(Cruz-Garcia and Peters, 2015; Alvarado et al., 2017; Bayraktarov et al., \r\n2020). In Panama, actions taken have allowed the protection of a high \r\nnumber of marine areas with coral reefs, as well as the incorporation of \r\nmanagement approaches that include several sectors such as fisheries, \r\ntourism, coral protection and coral conservation (low confidence) \r\n(Alvarado et al., 2017)"


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" In the case of Costa Rica, 80% of coral habitats \r\nare located inside of MPAs, multiple research coral-related activities \r\nhave been performed, and several training activities have favoured the \r\nengagement of the local community in their protection against climate \r\nand non-climate hazards (low confidence) (Alvarado et al., 2017)."


id: 8f5fa69b759373e4d8fbe1ed0daae7b9
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"There is medium confidence that EbA is the main strategy used in \r\nCSA coral reef ecosystems. The set of strategies applied include the \r\nprotection, restoration (e.g., coral gardening, larval propagation) and \r\nconservation of coral reef areas through the application of spatial \r\nocean zoning schemes such as marine protected areas (MPAs), marine \r\nmanaged areas (MMAs), national parks, wildlife refuges, special zones \r\nof marine protection, special management zones, responsible fishing \r\nareas and the establishment of management plans with some level \r\nof participatory processes. These strategies are complemented by \r\nactions that promote the development of research and education \r\nprogrammes, recreational and cultural activities, the use of community\u0002based approaches and the creation of national specific laws (Graham, \r\n2017) and the adherence to international treaties (e.g"


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", Convention \r\non International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora \r\n[CITIES], AGENDA 21, United Nations Convention on the Law of the \r\nSea (UNCLOS), Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International \r\nImportance Especially as Waterfowl Habitat) (Cruz-Garcia and Peters, \r\n2015; Gopal et al., 2015; Graham, 2017; Bayraktarov et al., 2020)."


id: 9e158687945c1516527792380923081c
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"There is low confidence about how measures adopted are ensuring \r\nthe sustainability of marine resources used by fisheries. In Peru, \r\nindustrial fisheries follow an adaptive management approach (i.e., \r\nstock assessments, catch limits), while in Chile, small-scale fisheries \r\nof benthic-demersal resources is managed through the granting of \r\nexclusive territorial use rights (called TURFS) with established quotas \r\ndefined by the central authority (Bertrand et  al., 2018). In addition, \r\nMPAs in Chile play a key role in climate-change adaptation for fisheries \r\n(medium confidence) (Gelcich et al., 2015; Petit et al., 2018), and an \r\nincreasing amount of funds have been invested in initiatives to reduce \r\nthe vulnerability of fishery and aquaculture sectors to climate change \r\n(OECD, 2017). Since 2016, Argentina has been developing a strategy to \r\nimplement EbM on fisheries with support from the Global Environment \r\nFacility (GEF) programme"


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" Also, Argentina and Chile are promoting \r\nthe local consumption of seafood and the certification of its fishery \r\nproducts (OECD, 2017), while Brazil and Chile have advanced in their \r\nresponse to climate change through the development of new research \r\nstudies and methodologies incorporating research institutions (Nagy \r\net  al., 2015). Uruguay is incorporating stakeholders in its climate\u0002change adaptation strategies (low confidence) (Nagy et  al., 2015), \r\nwhile Colombia is supporting the capacity building of fishers, promoting \r\nlivelihood diversification to increase the resilience of the sector (medium \r\nconfidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Hellebrandt et al., 2014; \r\nArroyo Mina et  al., 2016; Matera, 2016)"


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" Chile and Peru have made \r\ncertain advances in the development of guidelines for the management \r\nof the coast line and the implementation of the EbM, which has \r\nfavoured the collaboration of diverse and multiple stakeholders (fishers, \r\nacademics, municipal institutions), the development of outreach and \r\neducational activities, the creation of networks and the interests of other \r\nfishery communities to implement EbM (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Hellebrandt et al., 2014; Gelcich et al., 2015; "


id: 23fcb62cbc984310789cc97549d081dc
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"Although current NAPs and many other actions and strategies focus \r\non improving the conservation and restoration of ocean and coastal \r\necosystems, as well as the suitability of marine resources throughout \r\nCSA, these measures are still not able to reduce the vulnerability \r\nand sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate-change hazards (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 12.6; Table SM12.3; Leal Filho, 2018; Nagy et al., \r\n2019). There is high confidence that sandy beach ecosystems of CSA \r\ncountries have suffered significant losses of dunes as a consequence \r\nof the construction of infrastructures that have caused interruptions \r\nin the natural dynamic of beaches, reducing protection against tides, \r\nwaves, extreme events or tsunamis (high confidence) (Amaral et  al., \r\n2016; Bernardino et al., 2016; Gonzalez and Holtmann-Ahumada, 2017; \r\nObraczka et  al., 2017)"


id: 413a46ea6871d5220414705b641d2dfa
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" Also, adaptation measures to cope with SLR \r\nand coastal extreme events sometimes fail because they exacerbate \r\ncoastal erosion and damage (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Spalding et  al., 2014; Lins-de-Barros and Parente\u0002Ribeiro, 2018). There is medium evidence but high agreement that the \r\nmost serious barriers limiting the success of adaptation strategies in \r\nocean and coastal systems in CSA stem from a lack of coordination \r\n(e.g., absence of participatory processes, overlapping among fishing \r\nand protection activities), lack of knowledge (e.g., poor monitoring, \r\npoor control and surveillance, no long-term studies) and lack of \r\nadequate metrics for evaluating adaptation actions informing decision \r\nmakers hinder the continuity and adjustment of measures and lead to \r\nweak governance (e.g., perverse incentives, resource overexploitation, "


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"Current goals in national and sectoral adaptation plans attempt \r\nto promote research and monitoring (e.g., new research actions, \r\nmodelling, knowledge management), the development of new \r\nlegislative tools and policies (e.g., inter-institutional and territorial \r\ncoordination, improvement of public policies), the conservation of \r\nocean and coastal ecosystems and their biodiversity (e.g., creation \r\nof new MPAs, protection tools), the management of climate risks \r\n(e.g., warning systems), the management of productive activities \r\n(e.g., diversification of resources), the promotion of the construction \r\nof new infrastructure and technology (e.g., grey-green infrastructure \r\n[GGI]), the creation of new financial tools (e.g., types of insurance), \r\nimproved the capacity building (e.g., education, awareness), water \r\nand residue management (e.g., sewage and freshwater availability), \r\nsocial inclusion (e.g"


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", strategies to support vulnerable sectors, gender \r\ninclusion) and the incorporation of traditional practices (e.g., restoring \r\ntraditional practices including Indigenous knowledge [IK]). However, \r\nthe amount and type of adaptation goals differ enormously from \r\ncountry to country (Figure 12.12)."


id: 93e5eed39beb6710e298f03c655b0fb8
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"Some important limits and barriers have been detected for productive \r\nsystems such as fisheries and tourism in CSA (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement). Major Brazilian fisheries do not \r\nfollow an ecosystem approach to management, although some small\u0002scale fisheries apply a precautionary approach (Singh-Renton and \r\nMcIvor, 2015). The management of Peruvian artisanal (medium and \r\nsmall-scale) fisheries is minimal and is governed by a lack of regulations, \r\ncontrol and management actions (Bertrand et al., 2018). In Argentina, \r\nrecreational marine fisheries have been largely unregulated, and there \r\nexists a lack of monitoring programmes, which has contributed to the \r\noverexploitation of some key coastal stocks (Venerus and Cedrola, \r\n2017). Moreover, womenfisher in CSA are excluded of the decision\u0002making processes (FAO, 2016b; Bruguere and Williams, 2017)"


id: 31c18f5c13491c58e8775a6d8e4ec5f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Due to \r\nthe lack of monitoring programmes, it is unknown how this tourist \r\nindustry will respond to long-term changes driven by climate change \r\n(Weatherdon et al., 2016)."


id: ea3268f77ecd1ea40910e7e101f16bda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"In several regions of CSA, water scarcity is a serious challenge to local \r\nlivelihoods and economic activities. Regions that are (seasonally) dry, \r\npartly with large populations and increasing water demand, exhibit \r\nparticularly significant water stress. These include the Dry Corridor in \r\nCA, coastal areas of Peru (SWS) and northern Chile (SWS), the Bolivian\u0002Peruvian Altiplano (NWS, SAM), the Dry Andes of Central Chile (SWS), \r\nWestern Argentina and Chaco in northwestern Paraguay (SES) and Sertao \r\nin northeastern Brazil (NES) (high confidence) (Kummu et  al., 2016; \r\nMekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016; Schoolmeester et al., 2018). In NWS and \r\nSWS, downstream areas are increasingly affected by decreasing and \r\nunreliable river runoff due to rapid glacier shrinkage (high confidence) \r\n(Table SM12.6; Carey et al., 2014; Drenkhan et al., 2015; Buytaert et al., \r\n2017)"


id: b49d64691c5438da13db4b9deaf62803
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Many regions in CSA rely heavily on hydroelectric energy, and \r\nas a result of rising energy demand, hydropower capacity is constantly \r\nbeing extended (Schoolmeester et al., 2018). Worldwide, SA features \r\nthe second-fastest growth rate, with about 5.2 GW additional annual \r\ncapacity installed in 2019 (IHA, 2020). This development requires \r\nadditional water storage options, which entail the construction of large \r\ndams and reservoirs with important social-ecological implications. \r\nRiver fragmentation and corresponding loss of habitat connectivity \r\ndue to dam constructions have been described for, for example, the \r\nNSA, SAM, NES and SES (high confidence) (Grill et al., 2015; Anderson \r\net al., 2018a), with important implications for freshwater biota, such \r\nas fish migration (medium confidence) (Pelicice et al., 2015; Herrera-R \r\net al., 2020). Furthermore, examples in, for instance, NWS (Carey et al., \r\n2012; Duarte-Abadia et  al"


id: f2d6e21e0a9af0794a32ea1a15d98520
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", 2015; Hommes and Boelens, 2018) and \r\nSWS (Munoz et al., 2019b) showcase unresolved water-related conflicts \r\nbetween local villagers, peasant communities, hydropower operators \r\nand governmental institutions in a context of distrust and lack of water \r\ngovernance (high confidence)."


id: 82b088a7e344276e0b4047985a4cb18c
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"There is low evidence and high agreement that empowering local \r\nstakeholders (e.g., multi-lateral fisheries agreements) improves public \r\nawareness and simplifies regulations and increases the flexibility and \r\nsustainability of marine resources managed in fisheries under future \r\nscenarios (Weatherdon et al., 2016; Kalikoski et al., 2019). Ecosystem\u0002based fisheries management (EBFM) has emerged as a suitable tool to \r\nminimise the risk to climate change, avoid ecosystem degradation and \r\nrelated services (Gullestad et al., 2017). Further, when EBFM includes \r\nclimate complexity and the relationships among species within the \r\necological systems it contributes to maintain long-term socioeconomic \r\nbenefits (Long et al., 2015). There is high confidence that EbA is more \r\nsuccessful and feasible than hard coastal defences for the protection, \r\nmanagement and restoration of ocean and coastal ecosystems and \r\ntheir resources (Spalding et  al"


id: ac52d42ae80cb7544f0ed7a30b773341
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Most adaptive water management approaches in CSA centre around \r\nextending the water supply side, including large infrastructure projects. \r\nHowever, 'hard path' interventions are now strongly contested \r\nbecause negative effects exacerbate local water conflicts (Carey et al., \r\n2012; Boelens et al., 2019; Drenkhan et al., 2019), potentially leading \r\nto increasing water demand, vulnerabilities and water shortage risks \r\n(Di Baldassarre et al., 2018), thereby limiting adaptive capacity (high \r\nconfidence) (Ochoa-Tocachi et al., 2019). More integrated approaches \r\nfocus on multiple uses of water storage with shared stakeholder vision, \r\nresponsibilities, rights and costs, as well as risks and benefits, and often \r\nintegrating water and risk management (Branche, 2017; Haeberli et al., \r\n2017; Drenkhan et al., 2019). In this chapter, a feasibility assessment \r\nwas carried out for six major dimensions of multi-use water storage \r\nfor the entire CSA (Table  12.11)"


id: c258af6924744d7411ef849836f736b6
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" While geophysical and economic \r\naspects allow for the implementation of water storage projects under \r\na multi-use approach, the institutional, social and environmental \r\ndimensions pose a major barrier (Section  12.5.3). Further demand\u0002oriented approaches focus on incentives for the reduction of water \r\nuse through changes in people's habits, efficiency increase and smart \r\nwater management (Gleick, 2002). These are promoted in some \r\nregions, such as in CA and NWS (e.g., Colombia, Ecuador and Peru), \r\nto foster a sustainable water culture (Bremer et al., 2016; Paerregaard \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 67fd79478e92912fbbff920dba7f6cb5
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content:
"Major emphasis has been placed on NbS, that is, catchment \r\ninterventions that are inspired and supported by nature and leverage \r\nnatural processes and ecosystem services to contribute to the improved \r\nmanagement of water. NbS potentially enhance water infiltration, \r\ngroundwater recharge and surface storage, contribute to disaster risk \r\nreduction and can replace or complement grey (i.e., conventionally \r\nbuilt) infrastructure that is often socioenvironmentally contested \r\n(WWAP, 2018). Some examples include the reactivation of ancestral \r\ninfiltration enhancement systems in the Peruvian Andes (NWS) \r\n(Ochoa-Tocachi et al., 2019), the use of erosion control structures in \r\nthe Bolivian Altiplano (SAM) (Hartman et al., 2016) and the potential \r\nimprovement of drinking water quality and flood risk reduction in urban \r\nareas of CSA (Tellman et al., 2018) (Section 12.5.5.3.2)"


id: ce5e4e28d8310528bcab6808cb55ff72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Additionally, \r\nNbS in combination with ecosystem and community-based adaptation \r\npotentially generate important co-benefits, including increasing water \r\nsecurity and the attenuation of social conflicts in Chile (SWS) (Reid \r\net  al., 2018), water conservation in coastal Peru (NWS) and flood \r\nprotection in Guyana (NSA) (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Spencer et al., 2017). However, the evaluation of \r\nimplementation success of NbS is often hampered by limited evidence \r\non actual benefits (WWAP, 2018)."


id: 70604f9d82d380d2da8e49d7c5916afd
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content:
"National policies on climate change, water protection, regulation \r\nand management laws are important focal areas of adaptation \r\nin the water sector (Section  4.7). Notable in the jurisdiction field is \r\nthe Glacier Protection Law in place in Argentina (2010-2019) and \r\nunder construction in Chile (since 2005). This first glacier law in \r\nthe world represents a milestone for high-mountain conservation \r\nbut is also criticised for hindering effective disaster risk adaptation \r\nmeasures and excluding local socioeconomic needs (Anacona et al., \r\n2018). Furthermore, the first Framework Law on Climate Change was \r\nimplemented in Peru (2018) and is under way in Colombia, Chile \r\nand Venezuela (Figure  12.13; Table  SM12.6). Overarching regional \r\ninstitutions (e.g., OAS [2016]) and most countries in CSA promote a \r\nmove towards more integrative and sustainable management of water \r\nresources through new legislation and financing mechanisms"


id: d2dce42efd43884ed74db63dd53b71e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" For \r\ninstance, new water laws that include principles of integrated water \r\nresource management (IWRM) have entered into force, for example, \r\nin Nicaragua (2007), Peru (2009), Ecuador (2014) and Costa Rica \r\n(2014), or are under way, such as in Colombia (since 2009). However, \r\ncurrent realities in all regions show major challenges in implementing \r\nIWRM mechanisms and policies, related but not limited to political and \r\ninstitutional instabilities, governance structures, fragmented service \r\nprovision, lack of economies of scale and scope, corruption and social \r\nconflicts (high confidence) (WWAP, 2020)."


id: a4d31d917a569cad6138d19a7f6e660f
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content:
"Although a growing body of adaptation initiatives exists for CSA, \r\nevidence on their effectiveness is scarce. In many parts of CSA the level \r\nof success of adaptation measures depends largely on the governance \r\nof projects and stakeholder-based processes and is closely related to \r\ntheir effectiveness, efficiency, social equity and sociopolitical legitimacy \r\n(high confidence) (Adger et  al., 2005; Rasmussen, 2016b; Moulton \r\net al., 2021). Several PES experiences across CSA have been described \r\nas successful measures for watershed conservation and adaptation \r\n(high confidence). An example of success is the Quito water fund in \r\nEcuador, which aims to improve the city's water quality by integrating \r\npublic and private stakeholder interests with ecosystem conservation \r\nand local community development since the 2000s (Bremer et  al., \r\n2016; Grima et  al., 2016) (Case Study 12.6.1)"


id: f4418dfab3a74f43a4c536049da5945b
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" At the same time, in \r\nMoyobamba in Peru, the development of a watershed protection \r\nprogramme was leveraged by a multi-stakeholder platform process \r\nthat enabled deep social learning (Lindsay, 2018). In turn, initiatives \r\nthat do not consider the entire set of social-ecological dimensions and \r\ndynamics of adaptation or unintentionally increase vulnerabilities of \r\nhuman or natural systems are at risk of leading to reduced outcomes \r\n(McDowell et al., 2021) or maladaptation (Reid et al., 2018; McDowell \r\net al., 2019; Eriksen et al., 2021). However, systematic assessments of \r\nmaladaptation in the water sector have barely been provided for CSA."


id: 580debce622bc556f2b07d591a60f8dd
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"Most barriers to advance adaptation in CSA correspond to soft limits \r\nassociated with missing links of science-society-policy processes, \r\ninstitutional fragilities, pronounced hierarchies, unequal power \r\nrelations and top-down water governance regimes (high confidence). \r\nOne example is the abandonment of long-term hydrological monitoring \r\nsites within tropical Andean ecosystems (paramo) in Venezuela \r\n(Rodriguez-Morales et  al., 2019) due to the lack of governmental \r\nsupport during the political crisis. In that regard, the collection and \r\navailability of consistent hydroclimatic and socioeconomic data at \r\nadequate scales represent an important challenge in CSA. Major \r\nadaptation barriers are furthermore reported from central Chile in \r\nthe context of a mega-drought since 2010, related to socioeconomic \r\nfactors and a deficient bottom-up approach to informing and \r\ndeveloping public policy (Aldunce et al., 2017)"


id: d2e25fd60d16b88fa9463ee6aa5ec2ec
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"The CSA region globally has the greatest agricultural land and water \r\navailability per capita. With 15% of the world's land area, it receives 29% \r\nof global precipitation and has 33% of globally available renewable \r\nresources (Flachsbarth et al., 2015). Agricultural commodities (coffee, \r\nbananas, sugar, soybean, corn, sugarcane, beef livestock) are some of \r\nthe highest users of ecosystem resources such as land, water, nutrients \r\nand technology. These exports have gained importance in the past \r\ntwo decades as international trade and globalisation of markets have \r\nshaped the global agri-food system. However continuous overuse of \r\nthe environment might account for resource depletion (deforestation, \r\nland degradation, nutrient depletion, pollution), affecting the natural \r\ncapital base. The effects of climate change on humans, via ecological \r\nsystems, exacerbate the impact related to the depletion of ecosystem \r\nservices (Scholes, 2016; IPBES, 2018b; Castaneda Sanchez et al"


id: dc99ff11f1e5b957b5be3e05ff501d24
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"Even though several regions have seen significant improvements in \r\nfood availability, many countries are also experiencing a declining \r\ntrend in food self-sufficiency (Porkka et al., 2013; Rolando et al., 2017). \r\nDrought conditions in CA and the Caribbean increased in line with \r\nclimate model predictions (Herrera et al., 2018a). The direct social and \r\neconomic consequences for the sector are evident in CA's so-called \r\nDry Corridor, with a growing dependence on food imports (Porkka \r\net al., 2013), and these degrees of dependency make the region more \r\nvulnerable to price variability, climatic conditions (Bren d'Amour et al., \r\n2016; ECLAC, 2018) and, therefore, to food insecurity in the absence \r\nof adaptation actions (high confidence) (Porkka et  al., 2013; Bren \r\nd'Amour et  al., 2016; Lopez Feldman and Hernandez Cortes, 2016; \r\nEitzinger et al., 2017; Imbach et al., 2017; Lachaud et al., 2017; Harvey \r\net al., 2018; Niles and Salerno, 2018; del Pozo et al., 2019; Alpizar et al"


id: 8b8ccddc332610792a3ddeee23fffefb
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"In Brazil, the Low-Carbon Agriculture (LCA) programme (Programa ABC) \r\nfunds practices for reducing GHG emissions in the sector (Government \r\nof Brazil, 2012), accounting for about 15% of the total agriculture \r\nofficial finance portfolio, although it faces challenges to advance (Souza \r\nPiao et al., 2021). Costa Rica offers an example on how reforestation \r\ncan help achieve Paris Agreement objectives. Reforestation through \r\nnatural regeneration on abandoned pastures boosted forest cover from \r\n48% in 2005 to 53.4% in 2010 (Reid et al., 2019; Cardenas et al., 2021). \r\nSome key success factors included a strong institutional context, fiscal \r\nand financial incentives for reforestation, conservation measures such \r\nas payment for environmental services, cattle ranch subsidy reform and \r\na historically strong enforcement and focus on land titles that favoured \r\nthe restoration of lands. Uruguay offers another example, with the farm \r\nsector contribution of 32.8% of all exports and 73"


id: b8d64cc251bf7a2001f7446d09829bb9
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"8% of the country's \r\nemissions, so decarbonisation is not just an environmental issue but \r\nan economic competitiveness one as well. In the Intended Nationally \r\nDetermined Contributions (INDCs) submitted to the UNFCCC in 2015, \r\nUruguay set a specific target for the agriculture sector to reduce enteric \r\nmethane emissions intensity per kilogram of beef (live weight) by \r\n33% to 46% in 2030 by improving efficiency of beef production by \r\ncontrolling the grazing intensity to increase animal intake, reproductive \r\nefficiency and daily weight gain (Picasso et al., 2014)."


id: 2eecf312a50b15e523b37302b1870f75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Climate information services has an important role in climate-change \r\nadaptation and there is a recognised gap between climate science \r\nand farmers (high confidence) (Vaughan et  al., 2017; Loboguerrero \r\net  al., 2018; Tall et  al., 2018; Thornton et  al., 2018; Ewbank et  al., \r\n2019). Such services should address the challenges of ensuring that \r\nclimate information and advisory services are relevant to the decisions \r\nof smallholder and family farmers, providing timely climate service \r\naccess to remote rural communities with marginal infrastructure and \r\nensuring that farmers own climate services and shape their design \r\nand delivery. An interesting case facing this gap is the implementation \r\nof local technical agro-climatic committees in Colombia, which make \r\nit possible to share and validate climatic and weather forecasts, as \r\nwell as crop model results for seasonal drought events (Loboguerrero \r\net al., 2018)"


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" Another example is the web service AdaptaBrasil-MCTI, \r\nwhich forecasts the risk of climate-change impacts on strategic sectors \r\n(e.g., food, energy, water) in Brazil (Government of Brazil and Ministry \r\nof Science Technology and Innovation Secretariat of Policies and \r\nPrograms, 2021)."


id: 12f8af11a30ef395e73ccf5a74bb6446
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content:
"The main adaptation options for climate change in the region include \r\npreventive measures against soil erosion; climate-smart agriculture, \r\nwhich provides a framework for synergies between adaptation, \r\nmitigation and improved food security; climate information systems; \r\nland use planning; shifting plantations at high altitudes to avoid \r\ntemperature increases and plagues; and improved varieties of pastures \r\nand cattle (Lee et  al., 2014; Jat et  al., 2016; Crumpler et  al., 2020; \r\nMoreno et al., 2020a; Aragon et al., 2021). Agricultural technologies \r\nare not necessarily changing, but the economic activity is shifting to \r\naccommodate increasing climate variation and adapt to changes in \r\nwater availability and ideal growing conditions (high confidence), as \r\nis observed in Argentina, Colombia and Brazil (McMartin et al., 2018; \r\nRolla et al., 2018; Sloat et al., 2020; Gori Maia et al., 2021)"


id: aa507d04dfa437d2cf8dc88eca075c89
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content:
" Coffee \r\nplantations are moving further up mountain regions, with the land at \r\nlower elevations converted for other uses. In Brazil, crop modelling \r\nsuggests the need for the development of new cultivars, with a longer \r\ncrop cycle and with higher tolerance to high temperatures, a necessary \r\ntechnological advance for maize, an essential staple crop, to be \r\nproduced in the future. Additionally, irrigation becomes essential for \r\nsustaining productivity in adverse climate-change scenarios in several \r\nregions of CSA (McMartin et al., 2018; Lyons, 2019; Reay, 2019)."


id: 5db6467a841b8ce831457351a4007f1c
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content:
"Barriers to financial access are present in the region, restricting effective \r\nadaptation to extreme weather events (high confidence) (Chen et al., \r\n2018; Fisher et  al., 2019; Piggott-McKellar et  al., 2019; Vidal Merino \r\net al., 2019; de Souza Filho et al., 2021). In 2014, the penetration rate \r\nof this type of insurance in the region averaged 0.03% of GDP, and a \r\nfew countries dominate the market (Brazil, Argentina). Beyond these \r\ncountries, some initiatives also exist in Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile and \r\nEcuador. In most Latin American and Caribbean countries, the public \r\nsector plays an important role in providing insurance or reinsurance \r\nand coexists with private-sector companies (Cardenas et  al., 2021). \r\nInsurance protections represent a strategy to transfer climate risk \r\nto protect the well-being of vulnerable small farmers and accelerate \r\nuptake (recovery) after a climate-related extreme weather event"


id: 8ce5463ce6e76ee5874bb9216f1f586d
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" \r\nLack of finance and proper infrastructure is compounded by limited \r\nknowledge of sustainable farming practices and high rates of financial \r\nilliteracy (high confidence) (Hurlbert and Gupta, 2017; Piggott-McKellar \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 784e002e54add276e911141f1f3f2168
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"alter the growing trend of land use and land use change emissions, \r\nand at the same time, it can increase meat production by 55 Mt for \r\nthe entire period (2016-2050). The restoration of degraded pasture \r\nand livestock intensification account for 71.2% and integrated crop-\r\nlivestock-forestry system contributes 28.8% of total meat production \r\nfor the entire period. These results indicate that combined actions \r\nin agricultural management systems in SA can result in synergistic \r\nresponses that can be used to make agriculture and livestock \r\nproduction an important part of the solution of global climate \r\nchange and advance food security (medium confidence: insufficient \r\nevidence and high agreement) (Zu Ermgassen et  al., 2018; Pompeu \r\net al., 2021)"


id: 2a6197966b9c3c89a0499ab6d9522953
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" Crop-livestock-forestry systems are also important for \r\nclimate-change adaptation as they provide multiple benefits, including \r\nthe coproduction of food, animal feed, organic fertilizers and soil \r\norganic carbon sequestration (Sharma et al., 2016; Rodriguez et al., \r\n2021), achieving mitigation and adaptation goals (high confidence) \r\n(Picasso et al., 2014; Modernel et al., 2016, 2019; Rolla et al., 2019; \r\nLocatelli et  al., 2020). A recent analysis of agroforestry in Brazil \r\nshowed positive and relevant impacts on the heads/pasture area rate \r\nin livestock production and that the system may have also stimulated \r\na shift towards other production activities with higher gross added \r\nvalue (Gori Maia et al., 2021). Agroforestry has also proven to have \r\nprotective benefits to obtain more stable, less fluctuating yields due \r\nto climate-related damage in coffee production (high confidence) \r\n(Bacon et al., 2017; Durand-Bessart et al., 2020; Ovalle-Rivera et al., \r\n2020)"


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content:
" In the same way, the production of plant-based fibre can be \r\nless vulnerable to economic and climatic variability through farming \r\nsystem diversification. Textile fibre crops for the case of cotton include \r\ncrop rotation, agroecological intercropping and agroforestry (Oliveira \r\nDuarte et al., 2019)."


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"CSA is the second most urbanised region of the world, with 5 \r\nmegacities and half of the urban population in 129 secondary cities \r\n(UNDESA, 2019), huge metropolitan areas concentrated on the coast \r\nand an increasing number of small cities by the sea (Barragan and \r\nde Andres, 2016). Besides the many climatic events threatening urban \r\nareas in the region (extreme heat, droughts, heavy storms, floods, \r\nlandslides), cities by the coast are also exposed to SLR (Section 12.3; \r\nFigure  12.6; Dawson et  al., 2018; Leal Filho et  al., 2018; Le, 2020). \r\nThe main determinants of urban vulnerability assessed in the region \r\nare poor and unevenly distributed infrastructure, housing deficits and \r\ninformality, poverty and the occupation of risk areas, including LECZs \r\n(Section 12.3). Those features of urban systems increase the risks to \r\nhealth, ecosystems and its services, water, food and energy supplies \r\n(Section  12.4)"


id: 60a5f12ce1beb9510aa72909b8c9ca61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Impacts of climate events on urban water supply, \r\ndrainage and sewer infrastructures are the most frequently reported in \r\nthe region (Section 12.3; Figure 12.9)."


id: b87e42ad07588024784885e549542b1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"social challenges and the existing development deficits (e.g., build \r\nor improve infrastructure and housing applying climate-adapted \r\npatterns) can go hand in hand with adaptation and mitigation (medium \r\nconfidence: high agreement, medium evidence) (Section  12.5.7.3; \r\nCreutzig et al., 2016; Le, 2020; Satterthwaite et al., 2020). Over 20% of \r\nthe urban population in Latin America and the Caribbean live in slums \r\nand many other forms of precarious and segregated neighbourhoods, \r\nsettled in risk areas and lacking infrastructure (Rasch, 2017; UN\u0002Habitat, 2018; Rojas, 2019). This vulnerable condition is boosted by \r\nunstable political and governmental institutions, which suffer from \r\nongoing corruption, weak governance and reduced capacity to finance \r\nadaptation (Rasch, 2016)"


id: 4e80ba4db6752bb61db79e951a9020c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Facing governance challenges by including \r\ndiverse stakeholders and encouraging and learning from community\u0002based experiences has also presented the opportunity to improve \r\nadaptation strategies (Archer et al., 2014). An example of this is the \r\nRegional Climate Change Adaptation Plan of Santiago (Krellenberg \r\nand Katrin, 2014)."


id: 2743c4e0dda3eecc27bfc109c79c6ba5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 3578
content:
"Lima's Climate Action Strategy is an example (Metropolitan \r\nMunicipality of Lima, 2014). It was approved following a participatory \r\nand consultative process with the technical group on climate change \r\nfrom the Metropolitan Environmental Commission, focusing on the \r\nreduction of water vulnerabilities to drought and heavy rain, on the \r\nbasis of which 10 (out of 51 with Callao) Lima district municipalities \r\nare developing and starting to implement adaptation measures (Foro \r\nCiudades Para la Vida, 2021). In 2021 the municipality of Lima also \r\napproved its Local Climate Change Plan (Metropolitan Municipality of \r\nLima, 2021) under a similar process. The engagement of local players \r\nwas central to spreading and mobilising different types of knowledge \r\nand creating networks able to support adaptation (Section  12.6.3; \r\nMiranda Sara and Baud, 2014; Miranda Sara et al., 2017)"


id: f4da9436d34883555bd4b4e35dec96a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" The inclusive \r\nprocess is also a goal based on the example of Chile Municipalities \r\nNetwork Facing Climate Change (RedMuniCC) engaged in developing \r\nparticipatory strategic plans for climate adaptation and mitigation \r\n(RedMuniCC, 2021)."


id: 88967fcf5775a747cc73c61bc5eadac8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 19020
content:
"Hybrid solutions, combining green and grey infrastructure (GGI), have \r\nbeen adopted for better efficiency in flood control (Ahmed et al., 2019; \r\nDrosou et  al., 2019; Romero-Duque et  al., 2020), sanitation, water \r\nscarcity, landslide prevention and coastal protection (high confidence) \r\n(Section 12.5.6.4; Mangone, 2016; Depietri and McPhearson, 2017; Leal \r\nFilho et al., 2018; McPhearson et al., 2018). The adoption of NbS, which \r\nembraces well-known approaches such as GI and EbA (Pauleit et al., \r\n2017; Le, 2020), has increased (Box 1.3). The Fund for the Protection \r\nof Water (FONAG) and the Participative Urban Agriculture (AGRUPAR) \r\nare initiatives using NbS in Quito (Section 12.6.1). An example of GGI \r\nis a stormwater detention pond as a water storage solution to flood \r\nprevention, allowing multiple uses of an urban space, and adapting \r\nand revitalising a degraded area in Mesquita, Rio's metropolitan \r\nregion (Jacob et al., 2019)"


id: 5f8999f619bc1c18686fb8cbc9db08b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" These systemic and holistic solutions still \r\nneed to overcome governance and sectorial barriers to be more widely \r\nadopted (Herzog and Rozado, 2019; Wamsler et al., 2020; Valente de \r\nMacedo et al., 2021)."


id: 49aa5e3b7b28b7b20924a019d553fef4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 8982
content:
"Housing programmes and initiatives that consider resilient construction \r\nand site selection strategies are still in their nascent stages (Martin \r\net al., 2013). Initiatives in slum upgrading, social housing improvement \r\nand regularising land tenure, associated with infrastructure provision, \r\ndo not usually focus on adaptation, although they often focus on \r\nrisk reduction"


id: a1390c7650b4bd52daf0f26d9c20985a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Those initiatives, associated with a housing policy \r\nthat guarantees access to land and decent housing, represent a \r\ncomprehensive intervention in vulnerable neighbourhoods for their \r\nadaptation to climate change, and CbA (community-based adaptation) \r\nstrategies, including housing self-management and the participation \r\nof cooperatives, demonstrate the need and opportunity to transition \r\nto a transformative urban agenda that encompasses sustainable \r\ndevelopment, poverty reduction, disaster-risk reduction, climate\u0002change adaptation and climate-change mitigation (high confidence) \r\n(Munto, 2018; UN-Habitat, 2018; Valadares and Cunha, 2018; Barcena \r\net  al., 2020b; Nunez Collado and Wang, 2020; Satterthwaite et  al., \r\n2020)."


id: c0cc7e681ef9e76dbf06f2ae0aa35a61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 27898
content:
"Managing water in cities in an adaptive way has been central to \r\nreducing impacts such as floods and contributes to water security (high \r\nconfidence) (Van Leeuwen et al., 2016; Okumura et al., 2021). Many \r\ncities facing frequent heavy storms that impact mostly underprivileged \r\ncommunities, slums and vulnerable areas could benefit from integrated \r\nNbS for disaster risk reduction and adaptation (high confidence) \r\n(Sandholz et al., 2018; Ronchi and Arcidiacono, 2019). A study covering \r\n70 Latin American cities estimated that 96  million people would \r\nbenefit from improving main watersheds with GI (Tellman et al., 2018)"


id: f65e335e10a696b23d99ecd35899c7e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 36274
content:
" \r\nIn several municipal climate plans, NbSs were introduced mainly to \r\nenhance rainwater management, reduce energy consumption and \r\nurban heat areas, improve water quality, prevent landslides and set \r\naside green areas (high confidence) (Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos \r\nAires, 2015; Municipio del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, 2020; \r\nPrefeitura Municipal de Curitiba, 2020; Alcaldia de Medellin, 2021; \r\nMunicipalidad de Lima, 2021; Prefeitura da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, \r\n2021; Prefeitura do Municipio de Sao Paulo, 2021). Sao Paulo's project \r\nfor Jaguare River proposes a large-scale landscape transformation \r\napplying innovative multi-functional NbSs instead of exclusively large, \r\nexpensive and monofunctional hard-engineered solutions to manage \r\nstormwater (Marques et  al., 2018; Herzog and Rozado, 2019)"


id: 3617ac7bb72ecdb5436b4323bde710f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5915
content:
" In \r\nBogota, the Humedales Foundation has restored wetlands to enhance \r\nareas near the Van Der Hammen reserve to improve water quality and \r\nquantity, restore habitat for biodiversity and provide flood protection \r\n(Portugal Del Pino et  al., 2020). In Petropolis, a medium-sized city \r\nin the hills of Rio de Janeiro state, the water service company has \r\nimplemented 10 NbS multi-functional micro wastewater treatment \r\nplants in low-income areas, helping to reduce cascading impacts of \r\nstorms, floods and epidemics (Herzog and Rozado, 2019). In Costanera \r\nSur, Buenos Aires, a public initiative to protect an auto-regenerated \r\nRiver Plate bank, which had received demolition material to create \r\nland, currently offers numerous ecosystem services for residents and \r\nattract visitors, activating the tourist industry and helping reducing \r\nriverine floods (Bertonatti, 2021; OICS, 2021)"


id: 861be0866ac1cadc3a3bfe6dceac78f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18639
content:
"Several large cities are implementing municipal risk management \r\nplans and management and restoration plans for hydrologically \r\nrelevant areas, considering threats of drought and heat waves, \r\nintegrated watershed management and flood control programmes \r\n(high confidence) (Municipio del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, 2020; \r\nPrefeitura Municipal do Salvador, 2020; Municipalidad de Lima, 2021; \r\nPrefeitura da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, 2021; Prefeitura do Municipio \r\nde Sao Paulo, 2021). Quito and Rio de Janeiro are two examples of \r\ncomprehensive and effective city-level climate action that includes \r\ncreating environmental protected areas, managing appropriate land \r\nuse, household relocation and EWSs in areas vulnerable to high levels \r\nof precipitation associated with EbA, such as reforestation projects, to \r\naddress natural hazards (ELLA, 2013; Anguelovski et al., 2014; Calvello \r\net al., 2015; Alcaldia de Quito, 2017; Sandholz et al"


id: 4e456b113cb9077439fe9d4dfab89bdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 9741
content:
", 2018; Prefeitura \r\nda Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, 2021) (Section 12.6.1). EWS and the use \r\nof mapping tools as undertaken in La Paz proved to be an effective \r\nadaptation measure in the face of increasing hydro-climatic extreme \r\nevents (Aparicio-Effen et al., 2018)."


id: 6588594489fe60d9848b91d8d2cf98ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"(SUDSs) (Davis and Naumann, 2017), considering small-scale low\u0002impact development (LID) measures scattered over the watershed \r\ninstead of concentrate huge hydraulic grey structures, can help reduce \r\nthe risk and damage of flooding (high confidence) (Miguez et al., 2014, \r\n2015a; Depietri and McPhearson, 2017; Da Silva et  al., 2018a; de \r\nMacedo et al., 2018). Quito's climate plan explicitly cites the strategy \r\nfor implementing blue and grey infrastructure to reduce risk due to \r\nextreme precipitation and its associated impacts such as flooding \r\nand landslides and the possible impact of water scarcity (Municipio \r\ndel Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, 2020)"


id: 2837ec4f8640822e06aa2dc3b2b5f82c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3736
content:
" The Integrated Iguacu\u0002Sarapui River Basin Flood Control Master Plan, in Rio's metropolitan \r\narea, combines different solutions to flood protection, focusing on \r\nriver restoration by retrofitting levee systems combined with adapting \r\nland use to provide a multi-functional landscape as an alternative \r\nto bring together green and grey solutions, creating urban parks to \r\nprevent further paving and avoid irregular occupation of riverbanks \r\nand provide storage capacity for damping flood peaks (Miguez et al., \r\n2015b)."


id: d1ba49d0813d92d64c9b2d49827f8419
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30529
content:
"The integration of transport and land use planning and the \r\nimprovement of public transport, also as important mitigation \r\nactions, has emerged as a consensus in countries' adaptation plans; \r\nnevertheless, emphasis on mobility and transport systems in the many \r\npublished NAPs is low (medium confidence: medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). The NAPs of Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador do \r\nnot approach adaptation or mitigation in the sector, while those of \r\nPeru, Ecuador, Guatemala and Paraguay focus on mitigation only. \r\nThe NAPs of Chile, Colombia and Brazil focus on both mitigation and \r\nadaptation of mobility and transport systems"


id: 3cff9a2da78c38b24c1b6a778c0d36c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Chile's and Colombia's \r\nplans dedicate specific action lines to adapting mobility and transport \r\nsystems to climate change, while Brazil published a complementary \r\nvolume to accompany its NAP that is dedicated exclusively to sectoral \r\nstrategies, although it presents only general guidelines (Government \r\nof Peru, 2010; Government of Chile, 2014; Government of Ecuador, \r\n2015; Government of Brazil, 2016; Government of Colombia, 2016; \r\nGovernment of Guatemala, 2016; Government of Paraguay, 2017; \r\nGovernment of Costa Rica, 2018; Government of Honduras, 2018; \r\nGovernment of El Salvador, 2019)."


id: 8db40be5dd7778b52a108f49eacbaf18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 19819
content:
"Many cities are implementing adaptation measures on integrated \r\nwater and flood management systems (Sarkodie and Strezov, 2019), \r\nimproving basic sanitation services (medium confidence: medium \r\nevidence, high agreement). The main strategies are established by \r\nNAPs periodically focusing on improving water distribution network \r\nand reservoir systems, as in Honduras (Government of Honduras, \r\n2018) and Ecuador (Mills-Novoa et al., 2020), sewage and effluent \r\ntreatment, as in Guatemala, Brazil and Paraguay (Government \r\nof Brazil, 2007; Government of Guatemala, 2016; Government of \r\nParaguay, 2017), facing water scarcity and environmental degradation. \r\nLocal authorities follow this guideline in an effort to maintain and \r\nupgrade existing drainage systems in Georgetown (Mycoo, 2014) \r\nor in Medellin, focusing on improving drainage systems to prevent \r\nlandslides or flooding (Nunez Collado and Wang, 2020; Alcaldia de \r\nMedellin, 2021)"


id: e25de0935e505113faf67b34448fef13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 33119
content:
" Rio de Janeiro has constructed three large stormwater \r\ndetention reservoirs to deal with frequent flood, (Prefeitura da Cidade \r\ndo Rio de Janeiro, 2015), adopting a set of exclusively grey solutions, \r\nnot combined into a NbS that could improve urban flood resilience \r\n(Rezende et  al., 2019). The main proposed actions still consider \r\nthe traditional approach in improving the hydraulic capacity of \r\nurban drainage systems as an adaptive measure (high confidence) \r\n(Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, 2020; Prefeitura Municipal \r\ndo Salvador, 2020; Municipalidad de Lima, 2021; Prefeitura da Cidade \r\ndo Rio de Janeiro, 2021)"


id: bee7d7556c9ed6cd37284f4b548b0682
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27586
content:
" In addition to this strategy, several local \r\nplans propose actions for the retention and storage of rainwater, both \r\nin urban drainage networks on a smaller intervention scale (Prefeitura \r\nMunicipal de Curitiba, 2020) and along rivers and canals with large\u0002scale works (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, 2020; Prefeitura Municipal \r\nde Curitiba, 2020; Alcaldia de Medellin, 2021; Prefeitura da Cidade do \r\nRio de Janeiro, 2021)."


id: e4ec0019752d042bfa583276490f0d99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33496
content:
"Integrated climate-health surveillance systems are another key \r\nadaptation strategy (medium confidence). This information can be \r\nused by the health sector to inform decision-making about when \r\nand where to deploy a public health intervention. It can also feed \r\ninto an EWS, particularly if the data are compatible in format and \r\nspatiotemporal scales. An integrated climate-health surveillance \r\nsystem for vector-borne disease control was developed in southern \r\ncoastal Ecuador through a partnership among the climate and health \r\nsectors and academia (Borbor-Cordova et al., 2016; Lowe et al., 2017). \r\nAdditionally, an interdisciplinary multi-national team working at \r\nthe border of Ecuador and Peru created a cooperation network for \r\nclimate-informed dengue surveillance (Quichi et al., 2016), and their \r\nsuccessful binational collaboration resulted in the local elimination of \r\nmalaria (Krisher et al., 2016)"


id: 61128480266fc92ecd6c723ae8d84ec2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12844
content:
" A similar tool is innovative community\u0002based data collection to understand and find solutions to rainfall\u0002related diarrheal diseases in Ecuador (Palacios et al., 2016)."


id: 51fb753697c2c81fcd15ba66af3911e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10354
content:
"Epidemic forecast tools are an example of an adaptation measure \r\nbeing developed and/or implemented in this region (high confidence). \r\nClimate-driven forecast models have been developed for dengue in \r\nEcuador, Puerto Rico, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Dominican Republic, and \r\nColombia (Lowe et al., 2013; Eastin et al., 2014; Johansson et al., 2016; \r\nLowe et al., 2017; Johansson et al., 2019); for Zika virus infections across \r\nthe Americas (Munoz et al., 2017); for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Costa \r\nRica and Brazil (Chaves and Pascual, 2006; Lewnard et al., 2014); for \r\nAedes-borne diseases across the Americas (Munoz et al., 2020b); and \r\na nowcast model for chikungunya virus infections across the Americas \r\n(Johansson et  al., 2014)"


id: 8ad5d1708517191a3ab1fae459f79e70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19379
content:
" In Ecuador, a prototype system utilised \r\nforecasts of seasonal climate and ENSO forecasts of to predict dengue \r\ntransmission, providing the health sector with warnings of increased \r\ntransmission several months ahead of time (Stewart-Ibarra and Lowe, \r\n2013; Lowe et  al., 2017). Despite these advances, few tools have \r\nbecome operational and mainstreamed in decision making processes. \r\nHowever, Brazil and Panama have been able to operationalise an EWS \r\nfor the surveillance of dengue fever transmission (Codeco et al., 2016; \r\nMcDonald et al., 2016)."


id: 282e7286e7dded010080809fc628bf8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3730
content:
"Vulnerability and risk maps for climate disasters have been developed \r\nat the city level, for example in Bogota, Cartagena de Indias and Mocoa \r\nin Colombia (Yamin et al., 2013; Guzman Torres and Barrera Arciniegas, \r\n2014; Tehelen and Pacha, 2017; Zamora, 2018), and for the metropolitan \r\ndistrict of Quito in Ecuador (Tehelen and Pacha, 2017). In addition, \r\nvulnerability maps were created for the primary road network of \r\nColombia (Tehelen and Pacha, 2017). At the regional level, vulnerability \r\nmaps using climate-change probability, disaster risk and food insecurity \r\nvariables have been produced for the Andean region (WFP, 2014). In \r\nBrazil, vulnerability maps that consider exposure, sensitivity and adaptive \r\ncapacity, coupled with climate scenarios, were designed to support the \r\nNAP on a municipal scale (Chang and Garcia, 2018; Duval et al., 2018; \r\nMarinho and Silva, 2018; Menezes, 2018; Santos and Marinho, 2018; \r\nSilva et al., 2018)"


id: a329e82aec703b1956c26e68acb64078
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23242
content:
" A Climate Change Vulnerability Index was used to \r\ngenerate vulnerability maps for countries of the Latin American and \r\nCaribbean region (Vorosmarty et al., 2013; CAF, 2014)."


id: afe544277bf9eb9a8ddffc83959ba179
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25199
content:
"Another example of a public adaptation measure is the protection and \r\nrestoration of natural areas, which have the potential to decrease the \r\ntransmission of water- and vector-borne infectious diseases (medium \r\nconfidence: robust evidence, low agreement). Studies have shown that \r\nthese measures can diminish the cases of malaria and diarrhoea in \r\nBrazil and cases of diarrhoea in children in Colombia (Bauch et  al., \r\n2015; Herrera et al., 2017; Chaves et al., 2018). However, deforestation \r\nand malaria have a complex relationship that relies on local context \r\ninteractions, where land use and land cover changes play an important \r\nrole due to vector ecology alterations and social conditions of human \r\nsettlements (Rubio-Palis et al., 2013). Forest conservation can improve \r\nhydrological cycle control and soil erosion that can help to improve \r\nwater quality and reduce the burden of water-borne diseases"


id: eed926dedfbbbaefe107fbbe043127f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35050
content:
" In \r\naddition, forest cover can help to diminish the habitat for larval \r\nmosquitoes that transmit malaria. These measures can help to design \r\npolicies at sites where these problems do not currently exist but can \r\nemerge as a consequence of climate change and the increase in the \r\nfrequency of weather extreme events."


id: 7f4728339866803456a56bca8a27232c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17578
content:
"Some countries have developed national plans on health including the \r\nrole of climate. Chile has a Climate Change Adaptation Plan of the \r\nHealth Sector that proposes several actions to enhance monitoring, \r\ninstitutions and citizen information and education (Ministry of \r\nHealth of Chile and Ministry of Environment of Chile, 2016). Based \r\non the identification of vulnerability to climate change, Colombia has \r\ndeveloped 11 regional adaptation plans to strengthen institutional \r\ncapacities, climate-change education for behavioural changes and cost \r\nestimation to promote health resilience (WHO and UNFCCC, 2015). \r\nIn addition, El Salvador implemented actions to strengthen health \r\ninfrastructure using high latrines for housing in flood communities, as \r\nwell as other measures focused on water supply and quality based \r\non an education and awareness programme (Ministry of Environment \r\nand Natural Resources of El Salvador, 2013)"


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content:
" Only Brazil and Peru have \r\nimplemented actions so far in the region derived from national health \r\nadaptation plans, and only Brazil completed a national assessment of \r\nimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation for health (Watts et al., 2018). \r\nSome countries include health as a priority sector in their NAPs, as \r\nin the case of Ecuador and Costa Rica, which has a national plan \r\naddressing the prevention and care of climate-sensitive diseases \r\ncoupled with a National Health Plan (2016-2020) (Ministry of Health \r\nCosta Rica, 2016; Jimenez, n. d.)."


id: 9a014af3514cccc7b85b18bdc10db7ca
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"With respect to the development of climate-driven epidemic forecasts, \r\nefforts are needed to improve the utility of such forecasts for the \r\nhealth sector. Few such forecasts have been operationalised to inform \r\nhealth-sector decision-making. A review of 73  studies that predicted \r\nand forecasted Zika virus infections (42% from the Americas) identified \r\na high degree of variation in access, reproducibility, timeliness and \r\nincorporation of uncertainty (Kobres et al., 2019). A recent systematic \r\nreview of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies found that no \r\nreporting guidelines exist; the development of guidance to improve the \r\ntransparency, quality and implementation of forecast models in the public \r\nhealth sector was recommended (Pollett et al., 2020). An earlier review of \r\ndengue early-warning models found that few models incorporated both \r\nspatial and temporal aspects of disease risk (Racloz et al"


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", 2012), limiting \r\ntheir potential application as an adaptation strategy by the health sector. \r\nAdvances have been made in the last decade with respect to modelling \r\nand computing tools, increasing access to digital climate information "


id: 3dc6884b385e5b6dbf4627942a5667e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"Inequality is growing, a CSA structural characteristic; the Gini index \r\naverage for Latin American countries (including Mexico) decreased to \r\n0.466 in 2017, where 1% of the richest got 22  times more income \r\nthan 10% of the poorest (ECLAC, 2019b; Busso and Messina, 2020), \r\nbut in 2018, 29.6% of Latin American populations were poor (which \r\nincreased to 182 million) and 10.2% were living in extreme poverty; \r\nin 2018 (increased to 63  million) (ECLAC, 2019b) and in 2020, due \r\nto the COVID crisis, the Gini coefficient projection of increases range \r\nfrom 1.1% to 7.8% (ECLAC and PAHO, 2020), with poverty increasing \r\nto 33.7% (209 millions) and extreme poverty to 12.5% (78 millions) \r\n(ECLAC and PAHO, 2020; ECLAC, 2021). Those poverty and extreme \r\npoverty rates are higher among children, young people, women, \r\nIndigenous Peoples (Reckien et al., 2017; Busso and Messina, 2020), \r\nmigrants (Dodman et al., 2019) and rural populations"


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content:
" Climate change \r\nhas differential impacts, and even within a household there may be \r\nimportant differences in relation to age, gender, health and disability; \r\nthese factors may intersect with one another (high confidence) \r\n(Reckien et al., 2017; Busso and Messina, 2020)."


id: b6b14ff9f163506ea2ba5f096c7eee3d
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"CSA is highly urbanised, and the vast majority of the region's poor live \r\nin urban areas (except in CA), while urban extreme poverty is becoming \r\nmore pronounced (Rosenzweig et  al., 2018; Dodman et  al., 2019; \r\nAlmansi et al., 2020; Sette Whitaker Ferreira et al., 2020), with those \r\nliving in informal settlements and working within informal economy \r\nbeing critical factors in each city's economy (Satterthwaite et  al., \r\n2018, 2020). Many households in the region's cities live in precarious \r\nneighbourhoods with insufficient infrastructure and substandard \r\nhousing (Adler et al., 2018; Rojas, 2019). On average, between 21% \r\nand 25% of urban populations live in informal settlements (Jaitman, \r\n2015; UN-Habitat, 2015; Rojas, 2019; Sandoval and Sarmiento, 2019)"


id: 9c16c693f4fd70d1bf6f41ff3dbde4f8
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" \r\nThis hides important disparities: Habitat III reports, by individual \r\ncountries, the percentage of urban population living in informal \r\nsettlements, which ranged from 5% to 60% and in absolute terms \r\nmeans 105 million people living in precarious conditions (106 million \r\nestimated in 1990) (Section 12.5.5; Sandoval and Sarmiento, 2019)."


id: 78c93b99d1355c984155a70977cc9a86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"In IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR), AR4 and AR5, WGII recognised \r\nhigher risks associated with poor living conditions, substandard housing, \r\ninadequate services, location of hazardous sites stemming from a lack \r\nof alternatives and the need to work more seriously on strengthening \r\ngovernance structures involving residents and community organisations, \r\namong others (Wilbanks et al., 2007; Revi et al., 2014). The AR5 CSA \r\nchapter stated that poverty levels remained high (45% for CA and 30% \r\nfor SA in 2010) despite years of sustained economic growth. Poor and \r\nvulnerable groups are disproportionately affected in negative ways by \r\nclimate change (Section 8.2.1.4; Section 8.2.2.3; SR15 Section 5.2 and \r\nSection 5.2.1, Roy et al"


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", 2018) due to physical exposure derived from \r\ntheir place of residence or work, illiteracy, low income and skills, political \r\nand institutional marginalisation tied to a lack of recognition of informal \r\nsettlements and employment, poor access to good-quality services and \r\ninfrastructure, resources and information and other factors (very high \r\nconfidence) (UN-Habitat, 2018; SR15 Sections 5.2.1, 5.6.2, 5.6.3, 5.6.4, \r\nRoy et al., 2018)."


id: 78936ce25df3cad54d444533a0d830b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Adaptation, social policies, poverty reduction and inequality are weakly \r\narticulated to daily or chronic risk reduction. Poor residents are often \r\ncaught in 'risk traps', accumulated cycles of everyday risks and small\u0002scale disasters (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016; Mansur et al., 2016; Allen et al., 2017a; \r\nLeal Filho et al., 2021), which are exacerbated by climate risks and COVID \r\npandemic with the most vulnerable populations suffering. Chronic and \r\neveryday risks (poor access to infrastructure, services, incomes, housing, \r\nland tenure, education, security, location and poor-quality environment \r\nand networks and lack of a voice) are often exacerbated and \r\ngenerate new unknown risks by climate change (medium confidence: \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016; \r\nMansur et al., 2016; Satterthwaite et al., 2018; Leal Filho et al., 2021), \r\nextreme events and risks related to ENSO oscillation"


id: 4c54f8d22cfc10240e72a97a82d0611d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" All these risks \r\nneed to be considered simultaneously (UN-Habitat, 2018). Risks are \r\nseldom distributed equally, highlighting socioeconomic inequalities \r\nand governance failures (high confidence) (IPCC, 2014; Bartlett and \r\nSatterthwaite, 2016; Rasch, 2016; Romero-Lankao et al., 2018)."


id: 101b538614353f8d42da7bf64d6f85c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"CSA adaptation initiatives to reduce poverty, improve livelihoods and \r\nachieve sustainable development in scale and scope, from planned and \r\ncollective interventions to autonomous and individual actions. Many of \r\nthem are bottom-up, community-led initiatives together with civil society \r\norganisations; others are government-led, including local governments, \r\nor a combination of them (McNamara and Buggy, 2017; Berrang-Ford \r\net al., 2021). Vulnerable groups are a focus to achieve equity at planning \r\nand as a target including mainly rural low-income, Indigenous Peoples \r\nand women and migrants in most references. Responses detected were \r\nfocused on behavioural and cultural followed by ecosystem-based \r\nresponses, institutional, and technological/infrastructural responses. \r\nOut of 55  articles analysed from CSA (Berrang-Ford et  al"


id: 6ac29a6a5b24dd17e9055518ef71875f
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content:
", 2021) \r\nabout poverty, equity and adaptation options, half covered adaptation \r\nplanning and early implementation, but only 2% could show evidence \r\nof risk reduction associated with adaptation efforts."


id: 9fdc057ccc115cce82abb1fac66cce3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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"more exposed and vulnerable people. The participation of experts, \r\ncommunities and citizens has shown to be effective (FAO and Fundacion \r\nFuturo Latinoamericano, 2019), particularly through partnerships \r\nbetween grassroots organisations and impoverished communities, \r\nproviding valued expertise and capacities to support the implementation \r\nof government climate resilience strategies (World Bank Group, 2015). \r\nMore inclusive planning processes correspond to higher climate equity \r\nand justice outcomes in the short term, but an emphasis on building \r\ndedicated multi-sector governance institutions may also enhance long\u0002term programmes' stability while ensuring civil society has a voice in \r\nadaptation planning and implementation (Chu et al., 2016). Some local \r\norganisations and people have succeeded when they were in charge of \r\ntheir own resiliency efforts, where international projects and protocols \r\nproved less effective (Doughty, 2016)"


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" Some decentralised governmental \r\nprogrammes have tried to increase public responsiveness to the \r\nadaptation needs of the people, but such programmes have proven to \r\nbe only mildly successful and provoke the mobilisation of communities \r\nagainst existing governance structures (Thompson, 2016)."


id: a85c3564bef5397d768487fbe2c7d8de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"IKLK participation is thought to be more considered in adaptation \r\npolicies because it yields good results (high confidence) (Nagy et al., \r\n2014b; Jurt et  al., 2015; Arias et  al., 2016; Stensrud, 2016). IK has \r\nbeen adaptive for long periods in the Andes (Cuvi, 2018), but there \r\nmight be limits to adaptation in the face of present climatic and other \r\nenvironmental and socioeconomic drivers (Postigo, 2019). Approaches \r\nintegrating IK with more formal sciences, to address research and \r\npolicies, have improved adaptation processes, but they carry their own \r\ncomplications (high confidence) (Doswald et  al., 2014; Metternicht \r\net  al., 2014; Tengo et  al., 2014; Drenkhan et  al., 2015; Keenan, \r\n2015; Lasage et  al., 2015; Camacho Guerreiro et  al., 2016; Hurlbert \r\nand Gupta, 2016; Roco et al., 2016; Santos et al., 2016; Walshe and \r\nArgumedo, 2016; Uribe Rivera et  al., 2017; Kasecker et  al., 2018; \r\nCuesta et  al., 2019; Ulloa, 2019; Ariza-Montobbio and Cuvi, 2020)"


id: e232b826eb0f3d93dc2e1a8de1cc4e88
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content:
" \r\nMore interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research will help to \r\nbetter understand and manage the relationships among governance, \r\nimplementation, management priorities, wealth distribution and trade\u0002offs between adaptation, mitigation and the SDGs."


id: d26f85c045fb5a4ea5ba64c98c1eceb7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"Representations of climate change can also emerge as critiques \r\nand resistances that reveal that climate-change-labelled politics or \r\ninterventions have posed even greater risks or do not address poverty \r\nissues (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Lampis, 2013; Pokorny et  al., 2013; Ojeda, 2014). Indigenous and \r\nsocial movements have joined with climate justice activists, calling \r\nfor action to address climate change (Hicks and Fabricant, 2016; \r\nRuiz-Mallen et al., 2017; Charles, 2021)"


id: e119362299c568a0f7cea17c10b03824
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" The Bolivian Platform against \r\nClimate Change, a coalition of civil society and social movement \r\norganisations working to address the effects of global warming in \r\nBolivia and to influence the broader global community, reflects an \r\ninnovative dimension that, though at times conflictual, has shown how \r\nincreasing climate variability hinders the right of Indigenous Peoples \r\nto the conservation of their culture and practices and illustrates how \r\ngrassroots movements are increasingly taking over climate-change \r\npolicy in the region (Hicks and Fabricant, 2016). Social movements \r\nhave engaged with international networks, such as Blokadia, which \r\nsurged after COP 23, whose claims try to go beyond the protection "


id: b77a43ccc475112534b76632686cd7e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
"with age (Funatsu et al., 2019). In Mediterranean Chile, younger, more \r\neducated producers and those who own their land tend to have clearer \r\nperceptions than older, less educated or tenant farmers, but they do not \r\nhave a clear perception or how it may affect their yields and farming \r\noperation (Roco et  al., 2015). In some dry and humid Ecuadorian \r\nmontane forests, peasantss perceptions are in line with the scientific \r\ndata, but they have a lot of difficulties to predict the changes and believe \r\nthat they may not be prepared and can only be reactive (Herrador\u0002Valencia and Paredes, 2016). In an Andean community, perceptions of \r\nclimate change are homogeneous and do not vary according to gender, \r\nage or ethnicity (Caceres-Arteaga et al., 2020). Among representatives \r\nof five municipalities of Lima, it was found that climate change is not \r\nwell understood and residents have trouble distinguishing it from \r\nother environmental issues (Sina et al., 2016)"


id: 813fb41767ad0780059d57f5f7f068ed
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vector_id: 17855
content:
" In an Amazonian region, \r\nfarmers provided a more accurate description than regional institutions \r\nof how it affects the local livelihood system (Altea, 2020). In Cuenca \r\nAuqui peasants attribute recently experienced challenges in agricultural \r\nproduction mainly to perceived changes in precipitation patterns, but \r\nstatistical analyses of daily precipitation records at nearby stations do \r\nnot corroborate those perceived changes (Gurgiser et al., 2016)."


id: 4debf02309add5b7e99a855533a3318a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9682
content:
"There is ample empirical evidence that the impacts of climate change \r\nare not of equal scope for men and women. Women, particularly \r\nthe poorest, are more vulnerable and are impacted in greater \r\nproportion. Often, for several economic and social reasons, women \r\nhave less capacity to adapt, further widening structural gender gaps \r\n(high confidence) (Box 7.4; Arana Zegarra, 2017; Casas Varez, 2017; \r\nSegnestam, 2017; Acosta et al., 2019; Aldunce Ide et al., 2020; Olivera \r\net al., 2021; Silva Rodriguez de San Miguel et al., 2021). Gender equity \r\nis deemed to be central to discussions on climate-change adaptation \r\npolicies. In issues such as drinking water, energy, disasters, impacts on \r\nhealth and agriculture and capacity to migrate, women (poor women \r\nin particular) are affected in greater proportion, further widening \r\nstructural gender gaps"


id: dee1e613cf172a2928cc9d39760fc7f8
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content:
" In a rural community vulnerable to drought, \r\nshort-term coping was more common among the women, especially \r\namong female heads of household, while adaptive actions were more \r\ncommon among the men; there are gendered inequalities in access \r\nto and control over different forms of capital that lead to a gender\u0002differentiated capacity to adapt, where men are better able to adapt \r\nand women experience a downward spiral in their capacity to adapt \r\nand increasing vulnerability to drought (Segnestam, 2017)."


id: 5bb36437b08877c486804c3a3cc99135
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11935
content:
"Perception and understanding of climate change can be seen as an \r\nadaptive feature. In CSA, the awareness of climate change as a threat \r\nis increasing, a situation related to growth in climate justice activism \r\nand to the occurrence of extreme weather events of all kinds (high \r\nconfidence) (Forero et al., 2014; Magrin et al., 2014; Capstick et al., 2015). \r\nPerception of climate change is positively associated across countries \r\nwith the HDI and ND-Gain Readiness Index and negatively associated \r\nwith the Vulnerability Index and, within countries, with education level, \r\nwhile perception is negatively associated with the degree of political \r\naffinity for the market economy (Azocar et al., 2021). However, some \r\ncommunities do not associate their problems with the scientific concept \r\nof climate change, so discussions on whether it is human induced and \r\nits causes or relationship with other problems can become irrelevant \r\n(Sapiains Arrue and Ugarte Caviedes, 2017)"


id: 4e4b26fd79eef5126063610ce83eb53f
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" Even communities affected \r\nby the same changes do not necessarily perceive them in the same way \r\n(Bonatti et al., 2016). The interpretations of change, as well as its causes \r\nand effects, can vary widely (Paerregaard, 2018; Scoville-Simonds, 2018). \r\nRather than adapting to climate change, some people adapt climate \r\nchange to their social worlds (Rasmussen, 2016a)."


id: b5f3f08d80b441adf77993511568a34b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26154
content:
"Migration to cities can mean opportunities for migrants and for urban \r\nareas, but it can also worsen existing problems, as urban poor people \r\ncan become even more exposed and vulnerable, and the pressure on \r\nurban capacities may not be well absorbed (high confidence) (Chisari \r\nand Miller, 2016; Gemenne et al., 2020). Internal migration to cities is \r\nlikely to exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities related to inequality, \r\npoverty, indigence and informal activities and housing (Warn and \r\nAdamo, 2014). Immigration can make cities/residents more vulnerable \r\nto climate-change risks (Sections 12.5.5 and 12.5.7). Groups such as \r\nchildren, Indigenous Peoples and the poor are usually among the most \r\nvulnerable in migrations and displacements, which poses challenges \r\nto national policies and international aid (Sedeh, 2014; Gamez, 2016; \r\nUlla, 2016; Priotto and Salvador Aruj, 2017; Ramos and de Salles \r\nCavedon-Capdeville, 2017; Amar-Amar et  al., 2019; Gemenne et  al., \r\n2020)"


id: 61056ebb592e805b0711cc62b6bb0665
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12833
content:
" In migration or displacement driven by climate effects, women \r\nare prone to lose their leadership, autonomy and voice, especially in \r\nnew organisational structures imposed by authorities. This is especially \r\nthe case in temporary accommodation camps created after disasters, \r\nexacerbating existing differentiated vulnerabilities (Aldunce Ide et al., \r\n2020). International migration has become more dangerous and \r\ndifficult as border controls have become stricter, but programmes \r\nsuch as one to help temporary agricultural workers from Guatemala \r\nto Canada have proven successful (Gabriel and Macdonald, 2018). At \r\nthe same time, emigration may lead to the loss of IKLK for adaptation \r\n(Moreno et al., 2020b)."


id: b752c1e9c91e2a88a4f4713f94503899
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26372
content:
"Migration and displacements are multi-causal phenomena, and climate \r\nmay exacerbate political, social, economic or other environmental \r\ndrivers (high confidence) (Kaenzig and Piguet, 2014; Brandt et  al., \r\n2016; Priotto and Salvador Aruj, 2017; Sudmeier-Rieux et  al., 2017; \r\nRadel et  al., 2018; Heslin et  al., 2019; Hoffmann et  al., 2020; Silva \r\nRodriguez de San Miguel et al., 2021). Many case studies have been \r\nconducted on the region, but data to assess and monitor precisely \r\nthe effects of climate- and weather-related disasters in migration and \r\ndisplacements from a broad perspective remain inaccurate (Priotto and \r\nSalvador Aruj, 2017; Abeldano Zuniga and Fanta Garrido, 2020). The \r\nmost common climatic drivers include tropical storms and hurricanes, \r\nheavy rains, floods and droughts (Kaenzig and Piguet, 2014). Positive \r\nclimatic conditions also can facilitate migration (Gray and Bilsborrow, \r\n2013)"


id: 844e7196be140712aab87e4b3a9750ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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" Peru, Colombia and Guatemala are among the countries with \r\nthe largest average displacements caused by hydro-meteorological \r\ncauses; Brazil had 295,000 people displaced because of disasters in \r\n2019 (Global Internal Displacement Database, https://www.internal\u0002displacement.org/database/displacement-data)."


id: fe240373bf4b4c10662288d7d4e631a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"These processes can be interpreted as impacts on vulnerable peoples, \r\nbut also as adaptation strategies to manage risks and reduce exposure \r\nwhen people continue with their lives, temporarily or permanently, \r\nin a different but stable situationor when family members send \r\nremittances to those that remain in the affected areas (Section 7.4.3.2; \r\nCross-Chapter Box  MIGRATE in Chapter 7). The remittances create \r\nopportunities for adaptive capacity building because they reduce some \r\nvulnerabilities in the form of infrastructures, agricultural supplies, food, \r\neducation or health, as in northern CA (NU CEPAL, 2018). Anyhow, \r\nmigration as adaptation is not available to everyone (Kaenzig and \r\nPiguet, 2014), and the idea has also been contested because it may \r\nnot help to overcome structural problems or point to in situ options \r\n(Radel et  al., 2018; Ruiz-de-Ona et  al., 2019). The causal processes \r\nare complex"


id: 9ef405b47cecf4e1122b0406eadfbf38
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vector_id: 22551
content:
" Surveys of migrants usually find that the main reported \r\nreason for migration is to find a job or to increase household income \r\n(Wrathall and Suckall, 2016; OIM, 2017; Radel et al., 2018), but the "


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content:
"since the scope of this chapter does not include Mexico, so we must \r\nrely on the raw data included in the data dashboard mentioned in \r\nthe link (see also Guzman et al. [2016]). According to the data, 76% \r\nof climate-related financing went to mitigation projects, with the \r\nremaining 24% going to adaptation. Of the total financing provided \r\nby the multilateral climate funds to the region, 51% took the form of \r\nconcessional loans, while 47% was provided as grants. For the region, \r\napprovals in the 2015-2016 period were concentrated in Argentina, \r\nChile, Brazil and Colombia, where large-scale mitigation projects \r\nwere launched supported by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the \r\nClean Technology Fund (CTF). For the period 2003-2019, the total \r\ncontribution of climate financing to SA and the Caribbean is about \r\nUSD 3558 million. The largest contributors to climate financing in the \r\nregion come from the GCF, which approved USD 824.2 million for 23 \r\nprojects"


id: fcf3bc6a10b6d441d2a05500e4e46b2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Brazil is the top recipient with USD 195 million, followed by \r\nArgentina with about USD 162  million. The second provider is the \r\nAmazon Fund with USD 717 million allocated to 102 projects in Brazil. \r\nIn 2018, the CTF became the third largest source of financing, with USD \r\n483 million dollars approved for 24 projects; the main recipient is Chile \r\nwith USD 16,207 million, followed by Colombia with USD 170 million. \r\nThe five largest projects approved in the region in 2018 were through \r\nthe GCF. Brazil (USD 195 million) received support for reducing energy \r\nconsumption across Brazilian cities, while Argentina (USD 103 million) \r\nreceived support to scale up investments by small and medium-sized \r\nenterprises (SMEs) in renewable energy and energy efficiency. In both \r\ncases, financing is predominantly provided as concessional loans."


id: e9525f9bf517d5d4e841f307ff36f9b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34222
content:
"floods or droughts can hinder population mobility, immobilising them \r\nin their localities (Thiede et al., 2016). These immobilised populations \r\nare supposed to face a double set of risks: they are unable to move \r\naway from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them \r\nespecially vulnerable to environmental changes (Black et al., 2011). In \r\nCSA, migrating to the US is becoming dangerous and expensive because \r\nthat country is restricting entry; these trends expose local populations to \r\nthe risk of becoming immobile in the near future in a place where they \r\nare extremely vulnerable (Ruano and Milan, 2014; McLeman, 2019). A \r\nsurvey in Guatemala found no correlation between migration to the US \r\nand severe food insecurity in households, but the correlation became \r\nsignificant if the level of food insecurity was moderate, suggesting that \r\nfamilies in extreme hardship did not have the resources to migrate \r\n(Aguilar et  al., 2019)"


id: 13ca848ecea4b1581f220559a478f955
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 617
content:
" At the same time, some populations just have \r\nchosen not to move, as in Peru, where immobility among dissatisfied \r\npeople is more likely to be caused by attachment to place than resource \r\nconstraints (Adams, 2016; Correia and Ojima, 2017). Some populations \r\nhave chosen to adapt relying on their IKLK (Boillat and Berkes, 2013)."


id: 1229fddfc544b7b1da04f54b3ec4cfc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 359
content:
"Climate-change financing is unequally distributed among CSA \r\ncountries (high confidence). Financing of climate-change adaptation \r\nremains very much delegated to multilateral and bilateral cooperation, \r\nand the governments in the region have heavily relied on it. Still, there \r\nare some concerns regarding justice in the distribution of these funds \r\n(Khan et al., 2020). The UNFCCC has created financing mechanisms \r\nthroughout its functioning years, but a wide range of issues that \r\npresent challenges for access by recipients (Hickmann et  al., 2019). \r\nThese include a lack of technical capacity, difficulties in following \r\nthe procedures established by the various financial entities and low \r\nlevels of awareness about the need for action, as well as the different \r\nsources of funds available. The fiscal policies of various countries \r\nhave contributed to government financing in the fight against climate \r\nchange (World Bank, 2021)"


id: 9964625949edc7c1af86c3a3fe211a23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
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vector_id: 21656
content:
" Since the Paris Agreement, countries \r\nhave pledged NDCs that introduce the need to design and implement \r\ncarbon budgets with a corresponding consideration of the efficiency \r\nand costs and benefits involved in each mitigation or adaptation to \r\nclimate-change projects (Fragkos, 2020)."


id: 9498f8c7d1b566593bbf23380ccee0c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20889
content:
"Climate financing in the region is concentrated in Brazil, which receives \r\na third of the region's funding, with 41 mitigation activities receiving \r\nmore than 6 times that of adaptation from multilateral climate funds. By \r\nthe size of its GDP, Brazil receives the largest amount of financing; this \r\nleaves the poorest countries with little or no financing and therefore \r\nreinforces a vicious circle of poverty and vulnerability. Whether this is \r\ndue to Brazil's being more successful at presenting eligible projects, a \r\nlack of commitment from other developing countries or some other \r\nstructural factors is an open question. In any case, compensation \r\nschemes for the most vulnerable countries appear as needed, given \r\nthe differences in vulnerability to climate-related damage (Antimiani \r\net  al., 2017)"


id: d2ee46ccbc87d8f2c18fd861d416a8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 30703
content:
" This is aggravated by the fact that fund management \r\nis in the hands of supranational entities while inequalities remain in \r\nregions within a country, particularly in highly centralised countries, as \r\nis the case for countries in the region."


id: 461b65bfa9d9f8d0bcac5985aa94edda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8410
content:
"key decision point for adaptation will be how the world responds to \r\nthe pandemic. The global recovery can serve as a catalyst to increased \r\nand more equitable climate financing. Globally, recovery packages \r\nwill likely have the power to change the global trajectory towards \r\nmeeting the targets of the Paris Agreement and building a more just \r\nfuture (Forster et al., 2020). Several factors are relevant to the design \r\nof economic recovery packages: the long-run economic multiplier, \r\ncontributions to the productive asset base and national wealth, speed \r\nof implementation, affordability, simplicity, impact on inequality and \r\nvarious political considerations (Hepburn et al., 2020). A key objective of \r\nany recovery package is to stabilise expectations, restore confidence and \r\nchannel desired surplus savings into productive investment. However, \r\n'business as usual' implies temperature increases over 3degC, implying \r\ngreat future uncertainty, instability and climate damage"


id: d7ba713b7bc77197ff76df35080ac27e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31466
content:
"Mean air temperature and annual rainfall (measured by instruments \r\nsince 1891 and inferred through historical records of rogation \r\nceremonies since 1600), are increasing, combined with an increase \r\nin seasonality (i.e., longer periods of drought) and extreme weather \r\nevents, particularly higher levels of precipitation (Serrano Vincenti \r\net  al., 2017; Dominguez-Castro et  al., 2018). Two impacts related \r\nto warmer air conditions are the displacement of the freezing \r\nline currently placed at 5100 MASL (Basantes-Serrano et  al., \r\n2016), followed by glacier retreat and the upward displacement \r\nof mountainous ecosystems (very high confidence) (Vuille et  al., \r\n2018; Cuesta et al., 2019)"


id: 5e5d8a68bc5cac9ee44f41d12c1eab56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 12380
content:
" The key ecosystem that regulates water \r\nprovision for the city is the paramo, and only about 5% of this \r\nprocess is related to glaciers, so the combined effects of climate \r\nchange on both systems, coupled with land use change and fires, can \r\nreduce the availability of water for agriculture, human consumption \r\nand hydropower. Other important climatic hazards and impacts \r\nare the increase of solar radiation, the heat island effect and fires \r\n(high confidence) (Anderson et  al., 2011; Armenteras et  al., 2020; \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021). On almost half of the days of each year, \r\nQuito's population is exposed to levels of UV radiation above 11 \r\naccording to the World Health Organization scale (Municipio del \r\nDistrito Metropolitano de Quito, 2016)."


id: f6fea0c37629115c0a4c5b71ca1127bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36366
content:
"Various policies, programmes and projects have been created for \r\nthe promotion of urban green spaces, protected areas, water source \r\nand watershed monitoring, conservation and ecosystem restoration, \r\nair pollution monitoring and control and urban agriculture. Among \r\nthose actions, three recent ones are commonly highlighted. The first \r\nis the FONAG, established in 2000 with funds from national and \r\ninternational organisations to promote the protection of the water \r\nbasins that supply most of the drinking water. It is a PES scheme \r\nenabled through a public-private escrow. The projects include \r\nconservation, ecological restoration and environmental education for \r\na new culture of water, in a context opposed to the commodification \r\nof natural resources (Kauffman, 2014; Bremer et al., 2016; Coronel T, \r\n2019)"


id: b6c0bbdb7e15cc560ac5abcb54ecc201
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26273
content:
" FONAG was innovative in the use of trust funds in a voluntary, \r\ndecentralised mechanism and has inspired more than 21 other water \r\nfunds in the region; nevertheless, its narrative of success has also \r\nbeen said to oversimplify and misrepresent some complex interactions \r\nbetween stakeholders as well as within communities and their land \r\nmanagement practices (Joslin, 2019)."


id: a3bdecaa027061bdc19a2c167dcde195
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 23326
content:
"A third initiative is the creation of a municipal system of protected \r\nareas, locally named Areas de Conservacion y Uso Sustentable (ACUS). \r\nThis system covers an area of 1320 km2, nearly a third of the Municipal \r\nQuito District. Half of this landscape (680 km2\r\n) is covered by montane \r\nforests and paramos (Torres and Peralvo, 2019). These forests provide \r\ndirect water, food and fibres for about 20,000 people and indirectly a \r\nrural landscape for a growing number of urban citizens and foreign \r\ntourists that practice ecotourism and look for fresh and healthy \r\nfood. During the last three decades, this area has witnessed a high \r\ndensity of public and private conservation and restoration efforts that \r\naim to regain ecological integrity and improve human well-being in \r\ndeforested and degraded landscapes (Mansourian, 2017; Zalles, 2018; \r\nWiegant et al., 2020)"


id: ffddb78d41d2cce25367103ecf4be11a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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content:
" Quito's system of protected areas constitutes a \r\nprimary strategy for fostering links between urban and rural citizens \r\nas a means of understanding the ecological dependence of urban \r\nmetropolises to their surrounding natural landscapes. Along the same \r\nlines, these areas constitute a key element to increase the adaptive \r\ncapacity of rural livelihoods and contribute to mitigating climate \r\nchange through landscape restoration, sustainable production and \r\nforest conservation (high confidence)."


id: 41c631960d835d1c05fa1a660bfe1b93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 7750
content:
"ADEs are the result of the accumulation and incomplete combustion of \r\nwaste materials such as ceramic artefacts and organic residues from \r\nharvesting, weeding, food processing (including cooking) and other \r\nactivities (Lima et al., 2002; Hecht, 2003; Kampf et al., 2003). ADEs are \r\ncharacterised by their increased fertility in relation to adjacent soils, \r\nwith high contents of organic carbon (C) (mainly as charcoal) as well \r\nas inorganic nutrients, especially phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca) and \r\nhigh carbon/nitrogen ratios (high confidence) (Moline and Coutinho, \r\n2015; Alho et al., 2019; Barbosa et al., 2020; Pandey et al., 2020; Soares \r\net al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). They also exhibit a high cation exchange \r\ncapacity and moisture retention, among other properties (Hecht, 2003; \r\nKampf et  al., 2003; Falcao et  al., 2009)"


id: f63bdf3718941e2097b47a1becaf1c29
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36248
content:
" Charcoal content is a key \r\nindicator of pre-Hispanic fire activity and sedentary occupation, which \r\nis evidence of the anthropic origin of these soils (high confidence)\r\n(Hecht, 2017; Maezumi et al., 2018b; Alho et al., 2019; Barbosa et al., \r\n2020; Iriarte et al., 2020; Montoya et al., 2020; Shepard et al., 2020)."


id: c29d5b8c7d0c9cc0b0aefc7cf8869257
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 28207
content:
"Other NbS actions include the restoration of small basins, locally \r\ncalled quebradas, under different schemes of management and \r\nparticipation (medium evidence, very high agreement) (da Cruz e \r\nSousa and Rios-Touma, 2018) and the transformation since 2013 \r\nof a large portion of the old Quito airport into an urban park. \r\nNevertheless, Quito city continues to face challenges in the social, \r\neconomic, infrastructural and environmental spheres. A major \r\npending environmental issue is air pollution; a high level of pollutants \r\naffects the city in general and especially the most vulnerable groups \r\n(high confidence) (Zalakeviciute et al., 2018; Alvarez-Mendoza et al., \r\n2019; Estrella et al., 2019; Hernandez et al., 2019; Rodriguez-Guerra \r\nand Cuvi, 2019)"


id: 920af5b9da95dc46e5209cb1f15dad02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20500
content:
" Another major issue is the continuous sprawl of new \r\nneighbourhoods, mainly through informal processes, that diminish \r\nurban resilience because of the destruction of conservation and food \r\nproduction areas, sources of water and the dispersion of settlements \r\nwithout primary services, among other consequences (Gomez Salazar \r\nand Cuvi, 2016)."


id: 617f960d0beab59b3038a793b7bb890a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12911
content:
"As the second driest city in the world, Lima is highly vulnerable to \r\ndrought and heavy rainfall in the nearby Andean highlands (Schutze \r\net al., 2019). Located on the Pacific coast with more than 10 million \r\ninhabitants, it suffers from flooding, mudslide disasters and water \r\nstress, and is more frequently affected by heavy rain peak events \r\n(1970, 1987, 1998, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2017) (very high confidence) \r\n(Mesclier et al., 2015; Miranda Sara et al., 2016; French and Mechler, \r\n2017; Vazquez-Rowe et  al., 2017; Escalante Estrada and Miranda, \r\n2020). In addition to unequal water distribution in quantity and \r\npricing, one million inhabitants lack water connections (Ioris, 2016; \r\nMiranda Sara et al., 2017; Vazquez-Rowe et al., 2017) as a result of a \r\nlack of long-term city planning and lack of integration with water and \r\nrisk management"


id: 90bc2caddd3d086c76aa1942d456b8d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20310
content:
" Climate-change scenarios were ignored or denied, \r\nparticularly when budget allocations for preventive actions were \r\nnecessary (high confidence) (Miranda Sara et  al., 2016; Allen et  al., \r\n2017a)."


id: f4f30b8d81033ca8e3c46862d7cf010f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36048
content:
"At present, ADEs are estimated to cover up to 3.2% of the Amazon \r\nbasin and are highly valued for their persistent fertility, and they \r\nhave become a key resource for sustainable agriculture for Amazon \r\ncommunities in a climate-change context (Altieri and Nicholls, \r\n2013; Maezumi et  al., 2018a; de Souza et  al., 2019). Based on the \r\nlessons learned from the Terras Pretas de Indio, some researchers \r\nhave proposed the development of technologies to promote a new \r\ngeneration of anthropogenic soils (e.g., Kern et  al. 2009; Lehmann \r\n2009; Schmidt et al. 2014; Bezerra et al. 2016; Kern et al. 2019). Among \r\nthe technologies based on ADE findings, biochar, obtained by the slow \r\npyrolysis of agricultural residues, is the most explored application found \r\nin the literature (Mohan et al., 2018; Matoso et al., 2019; Amoah-Antwi \r\net al., 2020)"


id: 766a3ab19bdad6c36e5ae01b6300c857
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16223
content:
" The dual purpose of increased soil fertility and carbon \r\nsequestration is considered an important goal in connection with \r\ndeveloping sustainable agriculture in a climate-change context (Kern \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 440144c9be2441495e86433ae97fdf32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8110
content:
"Lima-Callao Metropolitan Area, capital of Peru, is facing recurrent \r\nclimate disasters providing lessons on water-related climate-proof \r\ngovernance reconfiguration. The first lesson is that when disasters \r\naffect poor and rich populations, dominant actors prioritise the integral \r\ncity's resilience and development and coordinate and collaborate \r\nwithin a concertation framework across institutional levels and \r\ngeographical scales (Hommes and Boelens, 2017; Miranda Sara, 2021), \r\neven having different ideas, discourses, and power, recognising that no \r\nsingle actor has enough power"


id: a227d6dbc335fca5cf618fda87e02fe8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23076
content:
" Second, water-related climate-change \r\nscenarios require comprehensive, transverse, multi-sectoral, multi\u0002scalar, multiple types of actor knowledge (expert, tacit, codified and \r\ncontextual embedded) (Pfeffer, 2018) and transparent information to \r\nmanage the tensions and even conflicts when some knowledge is not \r\nshared or restricted, particularly when lower risk perception and higher \r\nrisk tolerance are present. Finally, a concertative (processes involving \r\na variety of actors, which has become mandatory in Peru) strategy to \r\nlocalise climate-changed-related action shows quicker, more effective \r\nand more transparent results (medium confidence, robust evidence, "


id: 566ac322a11bb0095166efc14d961176
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11074
content:
"Roundtables were set up to foster dialogue between numerous \r\nstakeholders, including communities, agri-export companies, \r\ngovernmental organisations and municipalities, all led by the local \r\ngovernor (Gobernacion de Escuintla et  al., 2017). Agreements \r\nincluded keeping a minimum river flow all the way to the sea, setting \r\nup a monitoring and verification system for levels of river flow and \r\nrestoring riparian forests. A system was set up to monitor river \r\nflow at different points along the rivers on a daily basis in the dry \r\nseason using a simple WhatsApp-based system to communicate the \r\nwarnings and monitor compliance. Four years on, the rivers had not \r\ndried out and conflict was kept to a minimum. Rural communities \r\ncan use rivers for recreational purposes and for fishing all year round, \r\nwhile plantations (large and small) can use water for irrigation \r\n(rationally) and keep producing"


id: 9289e87e30139bcd1cfd41f47e50d538
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20580
content:
" Similar schemes and interactions \r\nstarted happening in other rivers in the Pacific coast of Guatemala, \r\nwith positive results, in particular, rivers kept flowing all through the \r\ndry season, as can be seen in the report of river flows for the years \r\n2017, 2018 and 2019 (ICC, 2019b)."


id: 4bd021ef9285f7d8ba1b0e7641b71ab8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9345
content:
"Local governance was also essential for the implementation of flood \r\nrisk management actions (high confidence). Guerra et  al. (2017) \r\nexplained how impacts were significantly reduced in the Coyolate \r\nRiver watershed, as well as on the Pacific coast of Guatemala, \r\nthanks to flood protection that was designed and implemented in a \r\ntechnical and integrated manner. This was a result of the strong and \r\nactive participation of local communities, companies and the local \r\nmunicipality, which demanded that the central government invest \r\neffectively. The stakeholders provided some resources (financial \r\nand in-kind) and inspected the works. Some flat areas of the lower \r\nCoyolate watershed used to flood annually, causing economic damage \r\nin communities. The areas covered by flood risk measures have not \r\nflooded and so have avoided losses and created conditions that \r\nattract investment and create jobs, improving living conditions for the \r\nlocals"


id: b23692e2a2b368b8821ab09387ae4fd5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25542
content:
" Other processes of participation and interaction between the \r\nauthorities, the private sector and communities have taken place in \r\nother watersheds for planning, action and investment in connection \r\nwith flood risk management. The ICC has played a role by studying \r\nflood-prone areas, building capacities in communities, fostering "


id: 44242d00995c7f8920d3ae7b4f8eec3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8141
content:
"There is a knowledge gap about the likely impact of climate change \r\non NES biodiversity, soil degradation and best adaptation measures. \r\nSES is the most urbanised sub-region of CSA, but there are severe \r\nknowledge deficits related to the design, implementation and \r\nevaluation of adaptation policy plans with respect to climate change. \r\nForecasts related to risk prevention require new studies that address \r\ndown-scaled climate-change models with concrete solutions to \r\nincrease cities' resilience. In SWS, there is a lack of long-term studies \r\naddressing climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and \r\nmarine ecosystems, which is mainly due to the lack of integrated \r\nobservational systems. There is a lack of studies projecting future \r\nimpacts of climate change on the cryosphere, water resources, hazards, \r\nrisks and disasters on natural and human systems"


id: a247f94bd99c021d2df949664febee55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23100
content:
" This is mainly due \r\nto the lack of systematic documentation, analysis and evaluation of \r\nadaptation strategies adopted, as well as their limitations and the \r\nlessons learned from maladaptation processes. There is scant evidence \r\nabout transformational adaptation to climate change and system \r\nresilience. In SSA, there is a need for information related to the cities' \r\nvulnerability to climate change and the impacts of the direct effects \r\nof future climate change on cities, energy infrastructure and health. \r\nAlso, there is a knowledge gap about the financing of climate-change \r\nadaptation in SSA."


id: 144c875b6dcf10bebf5710c31c399308
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 707
content:
"There is an important lack of knowledge about the state of health of the \r\nocean and coastal ecosystems along CSA (i.e., social-ecological data \r\nintegration, poor sampling efforts, lack of information about the value \r\nof ecosystem services, lack of information about ecosystems cover \r\nand distribution, lack of studies about climate-change perceptions \r\nand social concerns), including marine fisheries (i.e., landing statistics \r\nnot available, lack of reliable information on the scope of resource \r\nextraction, among others). Poor or absent monitoring programmes \r\n(physical, environmental and biological variables) that feed alert and \r\nsurveillance systems are lacking in CSA"


id: 7911d7fa0a8706908a50141344e34b7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16602
content:
" There is a general absence of a \r\ncontinuous line of scientific research or adequate baseline information \r\nabout the impacts of climate change, as well as continuous monitoring \r\nof the adaptation plans adopted in ocean and coastal ecosystems \r\nthat limit the formulation of adequate conservation and management \r\nprogrammes. When studies are performed, inadequate access to \r\ndata limits the analyses of the existing information, making difficult \r\nto detect climate-change trends and impacts and develop effective \r\nadaptation strategies."


id: 1205976a1a30feb945bde4d7bca6beed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 332
content:
"Despite the high level of urbanisation in the region, studies on urban \r\nadaptation initiatives are still underreported by municipalities, and \r\nseveral practical results have not yet been demonstrated (Araos et al., \r\n2016). This issue is particularly relevant to medium-sized cities because \r\nmost of the literature and data available on adaptation refer to the \r\nmajor capital cities. The potential of applying new resilient parameters \r\nin building and land use regulations for adaptation is underreported. \r\nThe same can be said about the impact of housing improvement and \r\nslum upgrading on climate resilience, even when initiatives are focused \r\non reducing environmental and climate risk. Also relevant in the region \r\nis a gap in research about NbS applied to urban area adaptation, as in \r\nthe case of the urban forestry potential for adaptation (Barona et al., \r\n2020)"


id: 4b720cac63061baeed600bcc79a08301
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9284
content:
" Even though the importance of urban ecological infrastructure \r\nin providing ecosystem services, such as flood control, is reasonably \r\nwell documented, its practical application in urban planning in CSA \r\nremains limited (Romero-Duque et al., 2020). Added to this is the lack of \r\nmonitoring data on adaptation initiatives in general and, in particular, \r\non adaptation initiatives in water systems that have already been \r\nimplemented and their effects on risk reduction. A lack of monitoring \r\ndata contributes to the lack of information about maladaptation in \r\nurban areas and its consequences. Mobility and transport system \r\nadaptation options remained virtually entirely unexplored, while \r\nmitigation options receive significant attention."


id: b837b3669f129a1cb95492b11c961b32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26516
content:
"CSA is a broadly heterogeneous region with respect to topography, \r\necosystems, urban and rural territories, demography, economy, \r\ncultures and climates. The region relies on a strong agrarian economy \r\nin which small producers and large industries participate, but also \r\nlarge industrialised urban centres, oil production and mining. The \r\nregion is one of the most urbanised areas of the world and home to \r\nmany Indigenous Peoples, some still in isolation, and exhibits one \r\nof the highest rates of inequality, which is a structural and growing \r\nfeature of CSA. Poverty and extreme poverty rates are higher among \r\nchildren, young people, women, Indigenous Peoples and migrant and \r\nrural populations, but urban extreme poverty is also growing (very high \r\nconfidence). Socioeconomic challenges are being intensified by the \r\nCOVID crisis"


id: a2bea8e84f6393b319ebead2ea314881
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23173
content:
" Most countries in CA are already ranked as the highest \r\nrisk level worldwide due to the region's high vulnerability to climate \r\nchange and low adaptive capacity; the lack of climate data and proper \r\ndownscaling are challenging the adaptation process (high confidence)."


id: e4f2d0bcbaf1c5de40941e31d0a3aa33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33505
content:
"Many extreme events are already impacting the region and are \r\nprojected to intensify; such events include warming temperatures \r\nand dryness, SLR, coastal erosion and ocean and lake acidification, \r\nresulting in coral bleaching and an increasing frequency and severity \r\nof droughts in some regions, with a concomitant decrease in water \r\nsupply, which impact agricultural production, traditional fishing, food \r\nsecurity and human health (high confidence). In CA, 10.5  million \r\npeople are living in the so-called Dry Corridor, a region with an \r\nextended dry season and, now, more erratic rainfall patterns. A water \r\ncrisis in Brazil affected the major cities of the country between 2014 \r\nand 2016, having become more frequent since then. Severe droughts \r\nhave also been reported in Paraguay and Argentina. In contrast, the \r\nurbanised areas of NSA are highly exposed to extreme floods (41% of \r\nurban population in the Amazon Delta and Estuary)"


id: b8c85b1b2a28b325a24e9efb9098d9c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26594
content:
" Urban areas in the \r\nregion are vulnerable for many reasons, notably high rates of poverty \r\nand informality, poor and unevenly distributed infrastructure, housing \r\ndeficits and the recurrent occupation of risk areas (high confidence)."


id: c6a339e9e2361d6e4316b7d2000c6d9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
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vector_id: 28821
content:
"recovery of already impacted ecosystems. Another battery of measures \r\nis focused on the management and sustainability of marine resources \r\nmanaged in fisheries; however, these measures do not assess current \r\nand future climate-change impacts but rather focus on decreasing the \r\nimpact of other non-climate factors, such as overfishing or pollution. \r\nTo date, throughout CSA there is an important lack of long-term \r\nresearch addressing ocean and coastal ecosystem health and their \r\nspecies through continuous monitoring, which is one of the main \r\nbarriers to adaptation. The number and type of adaptation measures \r\nfor ocean and coastal ecosystems and their contributions to humans \r\nare very different among CSA countries, which highlights the number \r\nof measures related to increasing scientific research and monitoring \r\nfollowed by the conservation of biodiversity and changes in legislation \r\n(high confidence)"


id: 9580ed06b5e177f9cd5bdfe46914ef50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21022
content:
" On the other hand, those measures that include \r\nchanges in financing (an important barrier) or the incorporation of \r\ntraditional knowledge are not always considered in NAPs by CSA \r\ncountries."


id: e60e73998ac9007ab0f030fdac37e407
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33685
content:
"Urban adaptation is limited by financing constraints, weak \r\nintersectoral and multi-level governance and deficits in the housing \r\nand infrastructure sectors, the overcoming of which represents an \r\nopportunity for transformative adaptation (high confidence). Short\u0002term interventions are more common than long-term planning \r\n(high confidence). Adaptation has taken place throughout the \r\nregion in planning, land use and building regulation, urban control \r\nsystems and risk management. Initiatives in social housing focus on \r\nreducing risk and overcoming urgent deficits but also adding to a \r\ntransformative adaptation pathway (high confidence). Hybrid (green\u0002grey) infrastructure has been adopted for better efficiency in flood \r\ncontrol, sanitation, water scarcity and landslide prevention and coastal \r\nprotection (high confidence). NbS, including GI and EbA, are increasing \r\nin urban areas (high confidence), although isolated engineering \r\nsolutions are still widely practiced"


id: 28ffe9b30f33caad35578ece630514fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3879
content:
" The integration of transport and \r\nland use plans and the improvement of public transport are key to \r\nurban adaptation; mitigation prevails over adaptation in the sector \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 6101dbf539ca1a950d4090f10bdb47b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12831
content:
"Low government spending on social infrastructure (e.g., health, education), ethnic discrimination and social \r\nexclusion reduce healthcare access, leaving poor people in entire regions mostly undiagnosed or untreated. In \r\na context of privatisation policies of healthcare systems, research shows that marginal people lack identifying \r\ndocuments needed to access public services in Buenos Aires (Argentina), Mexico City (Mexico) and Santiago de Chile \r\n(Chile), some of the most developed cities in the region. The consequences of this situation are underreporting, \r\nlow diagnosis and low treatment of diseases such as vector-borne diseases such as dengue and risk of diarrhoeal \r\ndiseases originating from frequent flooding in Amazonian riverine communities. Bias in reporting on access to \r\nhealthcare and the incidence of diseases in marginal populations is usually region-dependent. For example, in \r\nBrazil's Amazonian north in 2018, there were 2"


id: ff21b91fb21b8da3ecf06ea14f9194bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37692
content:
"2 medical doctors per 1000 inhabitants, while 4.95 medical doctors \r\nper 1000 inhabitants and 9.52 doctors in Sao Paulo and Santa Catarina respectively. Another example is pregnant \r\nwomen in remote Amazonian municipalities, who receive less prenatal care than women in urban areas. These social \r\ninequities underlie systemic biases in health data quality, hindering reliable estimation of disease burdens such as \r\nthe distribution of disease or birth and death registrations. For example, in Guatemala, alternative Indigenous \r\nhealthcare systems are responding to local needs in Mayan communities. However, this remains unrecognised. The \r\nexistence of health institutions based on IK can reinforce the lack of universal coverage by central government \r\nhealthcare, addressing the miscalculation of morbidity, mortality and cause of death among disadvantaged groups."


id: 7935dca246a8134dda756577cf5390fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16638
content:
"Cities struggle to address the immediate needs of their population while addressing longer-term needs associated \r\nwith climate adaptation, emissions reduction and sustainable development. Some cities are moving forward to \r\ntransformative adaptation, addressing drivers of vulnerability, building robust systems and anticipating impacts. \r\nBesides government-led adaptation planning and action, individuals, communities and enterprises have been \r\nincrementally adapting to climate change autonomously over time. Municipalities from Argentina, Peru, Chile, \r\nEquator, Brazil and Costa Rica are developing and implementing their Local Climate Action Plans, experimenting \r\nwith and revealing best practices in adaptation"


id: 7cea90fe74ce3b37a58dcfd30fbd4368
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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vector_id: 17251
content:
" Both anticipatory adaptation measures--choosing safe locations, \r\nbuilding structurally safe houses, choosing elevated places to store valuables, building on stilts--and reactive \r\nadaptation measures are used, the latter incorporating measures such as relocation, slope stabilisation, afforestation \r\nand greening of riverbanks. With variations, these cities have included mechanisms to work across sectors and \r\nactors on the understanding that it is collective planning and actions that will ensure that long-term programmes \r\ncontinue independently of particular city administrations."


id: 947934a07e205467f30d91b668968c21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20872
content:
"Cities are interconnected systems operating beyond administrative boundaries. Improved collaboration and \r\ncoordination are needed for integrated responses. Aside from good planning, cities need access to external \r\nadaptation funds. Climate-change adaptation requires long-term funding and investments, which are beyond \r\ncyclical political considerations. It is crucial to rethink how to ensure that international adaptation funds will reach \r\ncities and innovate. For example, member cities of Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy in the region, \r\ntogether with Cities for Life Forum in Peru, the Red Argentina de Municipios por el Cambio Climatico (RAMCC), the \r\nCapital Cities of the Americas facing Climate Change (CC35) and others, are pursuing this goal and applying directly \r\nfor international grants. New funding sources are required to help local governments and civil society"


id: 869466600f98a7b0de7069140069684c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18712
content:
" Cities and \r\nlocally driven adaptation initiatives can be funded by national governments and international organisations."


id: 629c779416220ad9243dcf1a1b849e3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13082
content:
"Climate-smart practices provide a framework to operationalise actions aimed at understanding synergies \r\namong productivity, adaptation and mitigation. A significant amount of evidence supports the potential for \r\nclimate-smart-practice technologies to produce such triple wins as natural pastoral systems in the southern \r\nregion of SA. Such systems allow for the combination of food production and environmental sustainability. The \r\nproduction of meat based on native grasslands with grazing management that optimises forage allowance can \r\nachieve high production levels while providing multiple ecosystem benefits. Optimal forage allowance means \r\noffering animals enough forage in order to meet requirements while avoiding overgrazing. This management \r\npractice simultaneously increases productivity, reduces GHG emissions while improving soil carbon sequestration \r\nand minimises other environmental impacts such as excess of nutrients, fossil-based energy use and biodiversity loss"


id: 576ee174d651a7f228484a871c285f77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11249
content:
" \r\nPastoral farming systems that manage grazing and feeding efficiently are an example of the integration of food \r\nsecurity, environmental conservation and nature-based adaptation to climate change."


id: ec62ab302ad044c83438632291383276
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34674
content:
"Agroforestry systems are present in the tropical region of CSA. Trees are present in a large part of the agricultural \r\nlandscape of this region, either dispersed or in lines, supporting the production of coffee, cocoa, fruits, pastures and \r\nlivestock in various agroforestry configurations. In CA, shade-grown coffee reduces weed control and improves the \r\nquality and taste of the product. Agroforestry uses nitrogen-fixing trees (Leguminosae), such as Leucaena in Colombia \r\nand Inga in Brazil, to restore soil nitrogen fertility. Tropical forest soils are generally nutrient-poor and unsuited to \r\nlong-term agricultural use. Land converted to agriculture by cutting and burning natural vegetation tends to \r\nremain productive for only a few years"


id: a531f4bd82fbc133153de0680186fe7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23553
content:
" Agroforestry and so-called silvopastoral systems, which incorporate trees \r\ninto crop and livestock systems, have been shown to have a dramatic impact on the maintenance and restoration \r\nof long-term productivity in agricultural landscapes, including degraded and abandoned land. Agroforestry systems \r\ncan provide major benefits through enhanced food security, stronger local economies and increased ecosystem \r\nservices such as carbon storage, regulation of climate and water cycles, control of pests and diseases and maintenance \r\nof soil fertility. Because of these multiple goods and services, agroforestry practices are considered one of the key \r\nstrategies for the development of climate-smart agriculture."


id: e23b0b0adb9166f33187ab72fd5a281e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33086
content:
"There are 28 million Indigenous Peoples in CSA (around 6.6% of the total population of the region). They belong \r\nto more than 800  groups living in territories covering a wide range of ecosystems--from drylands to tropical \r\nrainforests to savannahs, coasts to mountains--and that share the land with many other cultural and ethnic groups. \r\nIn the region, Indigenous Peoples are often categorised as groups that are highly vulnerable to climate change \r\nbecause they are frequently affected by socioeconomic inequalities and the dominance of external powers. They \r\noften experience internal and external pressures on their communal lands in the forms of pollution, oil and mining, \r\nindustrial agriculture and urbanisation. On the other hand, it is important to recognise that Indigenous Peoples \r\nhave knowledge systems and practices that allow them to adapt to many climatic changes"


id: 70364d04dba9d70b5daf7a942b07c445
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15270
content:
" Increasing scientific \r\nevidence shows that adaptation initiatives based on Indigenous knowledge and practices are more sustainable and \r\nlegitimate among local communities."


id: 72cc478968b11b442e01a1c99c5ef1fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15673
content:
"There are a growing range of adaptation options available today \r\nto deal with future climate risks (high confidence). Examples of \r\nadaptation to the key risks include: behavioural change combined with \r\nbuilding interventions, space cooling and urban planning to manage \r\nheat risks (KR1); restoration, expansion and connection of protected \r\nareas for ecosystems, while generating adaptation and mitigation \r\nbenefits for people (KR1: heat); irrigation, vegetation cover, changes \r\nin farming practices, crop and animal species, and shifting planting \r\n(KR2: agriculture); efficiency improvements, water storage, water reuse, \r\nearly warning systems and land-use change (KR3: water scarcity); \r\nearly warning systems, reserving space for water and ecosystem\u0002based adaptation, sediment or engineering-based options, land-use \r\nchange and managed retreat (KR4: flooding)"


id: a54893d876e185a3027b94c7b0475265
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23571
content:
" Nature-based Solutions \r\nfor flood protection and heat alleviation are themselves under threat \r\nfrom warming, extreme heat, drought and SLR (high confidence) \r\n{13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11}."


id: 8855eebb47089b2c5fe9aa9889671829
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18980
content:
"Projections indicate a continuation of the observed trends of river \r\nflood hazards in WCE (high confidence) of 10% at 2degC GWL and 18% \r\nat 4.4degC GWL, and a decrease in NEU and SEU (medium confidence) \r\nwith, respectively, 5 and 11% in NEU and SEU for a 100-year peak \r\nflow, making Europe one of the regions with the largest projected \r\nincrease in flood risk (Di Sante et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). \r\nWhile there is disagreement on the magnitude of economic losses \r\nand people affected, there is high agreement on direction of change, \r\nparticularly in WCE (Alfieri et  al., 2018). New research increases \r\nconfidence in AR5 statements that without adaptation measures, \r\nincreases in extreme rainfall will substantially increase direct flood \r\ndamages (e.g., Madsen et al., 2014; Alfieri et al., 2015a; Alfieri et al., \r\n2015b; Bloschl et al., 2017; Dottori et al., 2020; Mentaschi et al., 2020)"


id: 6afd6e63820620859286762cc054da4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14453
content:
" \r\nWith low adaptation, damages from river flooding are projected to be \r\nthree times higher at 1.5degC GWL, four times at 2degC GWL and six times \r\nat 3degC GWL (Alfieri et al., 2018; Dottori et al., 2020). At 2degC GWL, the \r\nincidence of summer floods is expected to decrease across the whole \r\nalpine region, whereas winter and spring floods will increase due \r\nto extreme precipitation (Gobiet et  al., 2014) and snowmelt-driven \r\nrunoff (Coppola et al., 2018)."


id: bf14019fe036076ccc4a69025f53ea0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
"Almost 50  million Europeans live within 10 m above mean sea \r\nlevel (Vousdoukas et  al., 2020; McEvoy et  al., 2021). Without further \r\nadaptation (Section 13.2.2), flood risks along Europe's low-lying coasts \r\nand estuaries will increase due to SLR compounded by storm surges, \r\nrainfall and river runoff (high confidence) (Mokrech et al., 2015; Arns \r\net al., 2017; Sayol and Marcos, 2018; Vousdoukas et al., 2018a; Bevacqua \r\net al., 2019; Couasnon et al., 2020). The population at risk of a 100-year \r\nflood event starts to rapidly increase beyond 2040 (Vousdoukas et al., \r\n2018a) reaching 10 million people under RCP8.5 by 2100, but it stays just \r\nbelow 10 million people under RCP2.6 by 2150 (Figure 13.5; Haasnoot \r\net al., 2021b) assuming present population and protection. The number \r\nof people at risk is projected to increase and risk to materialise earlier \r\nespecially in response to increasing population under SSP5 (Vousdoukas \r\net al., 2018a; Haasnoot et al., 2021b)"


id: d70eb3ccdea149b7f6a8c66c40c47ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31342
content:
" Under high rates of SLR resulting \r\nfrom rapid ice sheet loss from Antarctica, risks may increase by a third by \r\n2150 (Haasnoot et al., 2021b). Expected annual (direct) damages due to \r\ncoastal flooding are projected to rise from 1.3 billion EUR today to 13-\r\n39 billion EUR by 2050 between 2degC and 2.5degC GWL and 93-960 billion \r\nEUR by 2100 between 2.5deg and 4.4degC GWL, largely depending on \r\nsocioeconomic developments (Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in Chapter 3; \r\nVousdoukas et al., 2018a) (high confidence in the sign; low confidence\r\nin the numbers). UNESCO World Heritage sites in the coastal zone are \r\nat risk due to SLR, coastal erosion and flooding (Section 13.8.1.3; Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 4; Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., 2018b) \r\nas are coastal landfills and other key infrastructures in Europe (AR6/\r\nSROCC; Brand et al., 2018; Beaven et al., 2020)."


id: a9d3903e37057c8c175a7cc73a79ac7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24252
content:
"The frequency and severity of low flows are projected to increase, making \r\nstreamflow drought and water scarcity more severe and persistent in \r\nSEU and WCE (medium confidence) (Figure  13.3; Ranasinghe et  al., \r\n2021), but decreases are projected in most of NEU except the southern \r\nUK (Forzieri et al., 2014; Prudhomme et al., 2014; Schewe et al., 2014; \r\nRoudier et al., 2016; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). In EEU, uncertainty about \r\nchanges in water scarcity pose distinct challenges for adaptation (Greve \r\net al., 2018). At 1.5degC GWL, the number of days with water scarcity \r\n(water availability as opposed to water demand) and drought will \r\nincrease slightly in SEU (Schleussner et al., 2016; Naumann et al., 2018), \r\nresulting in 18% of the population exposed to at least moderate water \r\nscarcity, increasing to 54% at 2degC GWL (Byers et al., 2018). Moderate \r\nwater scarcity is emerging in some parts of WCE (Bisselink et al"


id: bb5549b5b3580ba9c7ffdf53743b8783
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27029
content:
", 2018) \r\nincreasing to16% of the population under 2degC GWL and SSP2 (Byers \r\net al., 2018). Under 4degC GWL, areas in WCE experience water scarcity, \r\nespecially in summer and autumn. Future intensive water use can \r\naggravate the situation, in particular in SEU (Sections 13.5.1, 13.10.3)."


id: edd8b2841dfadf21af43d5319e2bd72b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 34885
content:
"Without adaptation, potential economic damages between 7 and 17 billion EUR have been estimated for the next 50 years (Caporin \r\nand Fontini, 2016). Additionally, the ecosystem is vulnerable to warming (Solidoro et al., 2010) and SLR (Day Jr et al., 1999; Marani et al., \r\n2007). The duration of the closure of the lagoon inlets is expected to increase from 2 to 3 weeks yr-1 for RMSL rises of 30 cm, to 2 months \r\nyr-1 for 50 cm and 6 months yr-1 for 75 cm (Figure Box 13.1.1b; Umgiesser, 2020; Lionello et al., 2021b), resulting in disconnection from \r\nthe sea for most of the time for RMSL rise exceeding 75 cm. Frequent closures of the inlets would prevent ship traffic and in/outflow \r\nof water. For Venice, adaptation pathways considering the full range of plausible RMSL (Figure Box 13.1.1c) levels are not available, \r\nindicating a long-term adaptation gap. As planning and implementation of adaptation of this extent can take several decades (Haasnoot \r\net al"


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", 2020b; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3), this increases the risk that the city will not be prepared in case of rapid SLR."


id: 42ed207da435c1c5a9c13d43e4498268
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 7923
content:
"Nature-based Solutions (NbS) (e.g., wetlands) and sediment-based \r\nsolutions (e.g., sand nourishment) are increasingly considered for \r\nenvironmental, economic and/or societal reasons (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox NATURAL in Chapter 2; Stive et al., 2013; Pranzini et al., 2015; \r\nPinto et  al., 2020; de Schipper et  al., 2021). Coastal wetlands can \r\nbe effective to reduce wave height and form habitats, but their \r\nfeasibility and effectiveness is limited for densely populated areas \r\nwith competing land use, runoff of pollution, sediment-starved deltas \r\nlike the Rhine Delta (Edmonds et al., 2020) and rapid SLR (Kirwan \r\net  al., 2016; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019; Haasnoot et  al., 2020b). \r\nWhile losses of wetlands could be minor if warming stays below \r\n1.7degC GWL, at high warming or SLR above 0.5 m large-scale losses \r\nof these habitats will impact their ecological importance, ecosystem \r\nfunction (Section  13.4; KR 1, Section  13.10"


id: 50914a037617b4aa3bef23a163d0bf4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 10122
content:
"2) and their ability to \r\nprotect coastlines (Roebeling et al., 2013; van der Spek, 2018; Wang \r\net al., 2018; Xi et al., 2021). A combination with structural defences \r\ncould reduce risk in urbanised coastal regions (high confidence). \r\nAccommodation through elevated or floating houses have been \r\nimplemented and proposed locally within cities as part of a hybrid \r\nstrategy together with protection and as a way of innovative urban \r\ndevelopment (Section  13.6.2; Cross-Chapter Paper 2; Penning\u0002Rowsell, 2020; Storbjork and Hjerpe, 2021)."


id: 2420e16e77231cc531a8aab0680f759c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 3124
content:
"In recent decades water management in Europe has increasingly \r\nshifted towards integrated and adaptive strategies, with the most \r\nnoticeable shifts in WCE (high confidence) (e.g., Kreibich et al., 2015; \r\nBubeck et  al., 2017). While adaptive strategies are increasingly \r\nconsidered as an approach to strengthen flexibility and implement \r\nclimate-change adaptation actions, given deep uncertainty about the \r\nfuture (Ranger et  al., 2013; Klijn et  al., 2015; Bloemen et  al., 2019; \r\nHall et al., 2019; Pot et al., 2019), more traditional water management \r\napproaches still dominate across Europe (OECD, 2013; OECD, 2015; \r\nWiering et  al., 2017). Current measures focus on structural flood \r\nprotection and water resources supply and play an important role to \r\npreserve present land use and development patterns. The long-term \r\neffectiveness of such measures is increasingly challenged by their \r\nreinforcing path dependency (e.g"


id: 36aac900cb3956eb1ccbec8338843d03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
", flood defence and water supply \r\nattract developments which require further protection and supply). \r\nThis path dependency limits the solution space and may hamper \r\nimplementation of transformative measures, such as land-use change, \r\nto accommodate the water system (medium confidence) (Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 2; Di Baldassarre et al., 2015; Kreibich et al., 2015; Alfieri \r\net al., 2016; Gralepois et al., 2016; Welch et al., 2017; Di Baldassarre \r\net al., 2018; Haer et al., 2020)."


id: 7cc1071995cafd598577d86967d8c31e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 17223
content:
"Avoidance through restricting new developments in flood prone \r\nareas is applied along the coast of WCE and SEU (Harman et  al., \r\n2015; Lincke et al., 2020) and is considered a low-cost alternative \r\nto coastal defence at lower SLR. In SEU, an integrated coastal zone \r\nmanagement (ICZM) protocol has been developed which requires a \r\nsetback zone of 100 m from the coast in unprotected areas. Setback \r\nzones are projected to reduce impacts considerably in urbanised \r\nregions (Lincke et  al., 2020). Planned relocation is increasingly \r\nconsidered as a realistic adaptation option in cases of extreme SLR \r\n(Haasnoot et al., 2021a; Lincke and Hinkel, 2021; Mach and Siders, \r\n2021), for example, UK Shoreline Management Plans (Nicholls et al., \r\n2013; Buser, 2020). Retreat is rarely applied in Europe (medium \r\nconfidence), though it can have greater benefit-to-cost outcomes \r\nthan protection, particularly in less populated parts of Europe (Lincke \r\nand Hinkel, 2021)"


id: d781bcdbfbfcd26bb34a14901d483944
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 31426
content:
" Along parts of the coast in the UK (e.g., The \r\nWash), Germany (e.g., Langeoog Island) and the Netherlands (e.g., "


id: fa4cc891a89baf7cf53b7fb888066376
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 36900
content:
"Adaptation measures on the demand side include monitoring (e.g., water \r\nmeters, early warning systems of drought) and regulating demand, for \r\nexample, water restrictions, water pricing, water saving and efficiency \r\nmeasures, and land management and cover change (Papadaskalopoulou \r\net al., 2015b; Varela-Ortega et al., 2016; Manouseli et al., 2018; Garnier \r\nand Holman, 2019). Prolonged water restrictions and prioritising sectoral \r\nsupply could result in economic losses (e.g., for irrigated agriculture) \r\n(Section 13.5.2; Wimmer et al., 2014; Salmoral et al., 2019). Economic \r\ninstruments, such as water pricing, can be effective when combined with \r\nincentives for water saving and efficiency (Kayaga and Smout, 2014; \r\nEsteve et  al., 2018; Crespo et  al., 2019)"


id: 5aad37b1cb1be9970f42e37ee7ee1c70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 11783
content:
" Water saving and efficiency \r\nmeasures, such as leakage repair, education and improved irrigation, \r\ncould limit conflicts across sectors but necessitate technological \r\nadvances and changes in practice together with a willingness to \r\ncooperate (Garnier and Holman, 2019; Papadimitriou et  al., 2019; \r\nTeotonio et al., 2020). Increased irrigation efficiency has reduced water \r\nscarcity, particularly in SEU (Section 13.5; De Roo et al., 2020), and occur \r\nat farm level in WCE and NEU (Papadaskalopoulou et al., 2015b; van \r\nDuinen et  al., 2015; Rey et  al., 2017) but come with increasing path \r\ndependency on supply and trade-offs which may not be sustainable in \r\nthe long term (high confidence) (Di Baldassarre et al., 2018)."


id: 1dd20234164966bac801c20b08d8e1d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 2128
content:
"Early warning systems, insurance and behaviour change can \r\ncomplement protect and accommodate measures to limit residual risk \r\n(high confidence). Early warning systems have high monetary benefits \r\n(Pappenberger et al., 2015). Behavioural adaptation to flooding relies \r\non recognition of the threat and capacity to respond, both of which are \r\noften lacking (Section 13.11.2.2; Bamberg et al., 2017; Haer et al., 2019). \r\nFlood risk insurance and compensation systems vary across European \r\ncountries, ranging from post-disaster payments by governments and \r\ncompulsory flood insurance, to public-private partnerships where the \r\nstate acts as reinsurer (Keskitalo et al., 2014; Surminski et al., 2015; \r\nHanger et al., 2018). Risk-based insurance premiums can induce risk\u0002averting behaviour but may become unaffordable to poor households \r\nand some households in high-risk zones (Hudson, 2018; Surminski, 2018)"


id: 98154ec25b05cf505ef1a17d1e350f20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21436
content:
" \r\nIncreasing future flood risks due to both climatic and socioeconomic \r\nchange could overburden government budgets (medium confidence) \r\n(Section 13.11.2; Paudel et al., 2015; Mysiak and Perez-Blanco, 2016; \r\nSchinko et al., 2017; Mochizuki et al., 2018), resulting in unavailable or \r\nunaffordable insurance for private customers (Section 13.8.3; Hudson \r\net  al., 2016; Surminski, 2018), and underfunding and insufficient \r\nsolvency of insurance companies (Section  13.6.2.5; Lamond and \r\nPenning-Rowsell, 2014). Local knowledge about disastrous flood events \r\nin the past can be lost across generations, leading to (re)-settlement in \r\nflood-prone areas (Fanta et al., 2019)."


id: 58e2a99532b2381a33a194f43d6a5300
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 11477
content:
"The assessment of the effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation \r\noptions shows that a portfolio of supply-and-demand measures is \r\nneeded to reduce water scarcity (Key Risk 3, Section 13.10.3), although \r\nlocally demand-side measures could be sufficient (Kingsborough et al., \r\n2016). Under high warming levels, adaptation to drought and low \r\nflows by water saving and efficiency measures may not be sufficient \r\nto counteract reduced availability (medium agreement, low evidence) \r\n(Collet et al., 2015; De Roo et al., 2020). Successful adaptation in the \r\nwater sector depends on integrating water considerations into sectoral \r\npolicies (Collet et al., 2015; Papadaskalopoulou et al., 2016)"


id: 85ece114bf61363b544c28ea29232251
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 18612
content:
" Inclusive \r\nand participatory approaches where (local) stakeholders are actively \r\ninvolved in the initiation and execution of water management can \r\nenhance problem ownership, the quality and democratic legitimacy \r\nof processes and decisions, enhance support and accelerate decisions \r\n(Edelenbos et al., 2017; Begg, 2018)."


id: 40be8372f1950124a8c45da19932c988
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7565
content:
"(Figure  13.8). The largest losses of suitable climatic conditions are \r\nprojected for plants and insects, with different taxon-specific regions \r\nof highest risk, while proportions of species projected to lose suitable \r\nclimates are lower for other groups (medium confidence) (Figure \r\nBox 13.1.1; Table SM13.3; Warren et al., 2018). Temperatures >1.5degC \r\nGWL will lead to a progressive subtropicalisation in SEU, expanding \r\ninto WCE at >3degC GWL, a northward shift in the temperate domain \r\ninto NEU (medium confidence) (Feyen et al., 2020) and an expansion \r\nof desert biomes in EEU (Sergienko and Konstantinov, 2016). Changes \r\nin distribution are projected for major tree species in all European \r\nregions at 1.7degC GWL (Dyderski et  al., 2018; Leskinen et  al., 2020), \r\nwith economic implications for managed forests (Section 13.5.1.4). The \r\nlonger growth season in NEU and WCE will support the establishment \r\nof invasive species (Cross-Chapter Paper 1). Temperatures <1"


id: 6f686028f0fc83df0627cf93a61fd552
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 15156
content:
"5degC GWL \r\nwould limit expansion and novel appearances of pests, while >3.4degC \r\nGWL would make large parts of SEU and WCE suitable for pests, for \r\nexample, wood beetles (Urvois et  al., 2021), and increase economic \r\nlosses due to lower harvest quality of timber (Toth et al., 2020)."


id: 133365fce6b4a3c7fad85cf5ad07a2b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
"detected across European regions (high confidence) (Figure  13.8; \r\nSangines de Carcer et al., 2018; Carnicer et al., 2019; Green et al., 2019; \r\nSchuldt et al., 2020). Forest expansion in boreal regions results in net \r\nwarming (Bright et  al., 2017), possibly influencing cloud formation \r\nand rainfall patterns (medium confidence) (Teuling et al., 2017). These \r\nchanges are affecting climate, pollination and soil protection services \r\n(Figure 13.8; Verhagen et al., 2018). If not managed through increased \r\nreforestation and/or revegetation or peatland restoration, future \r\nclimate-change impacts will progressively limit the climate regulation \r\ncapacity of European terrestrial ecosystems (medium confidence) \r\n(Figure 13.8), especially in SEU (Penuelas et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2019)"


id: 5191a9c9a8c5772dfa886bab7b8bb883
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vector_id: 10287
content:
" \r\nPredominantly positive CO2 fertilisation effects at current warming will \r\nchange into increasingly negative effects of warming and drought on \r\nforests at higher temperatures (medium confidence) (Penuelas et al., \r\n2017; Green et al., 2019; Ito et al., 2020; Wang 2020; Yu et al., 2021). \r\nIn NEU and EEU, peatlands are projected to shrink with 1.7degC GWL, \r\nand become carbon sources at 3degC GWL (Qiu et al., 2020), peat bogs \r\nto lose 50% carbon at 2degC GWL, and blanket peatland to shrink or \r\nregionally disappear (Gallego-Sala et al., 2010; Ferretto et al., 2019)."


id: 1dbb9f017af6f33c3f619856d5d96543
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 2116
content:
"Rehabilitation and restoration of land (Prober et al., 2019), particularly \r\nabandoned agricultural areas in SEU and NEU (Terres et  al., 2015), \r\nare long-term strategies to improve regulating services and enhance \r\nbiodiversity conservation (Morecroft et al., 2019; Campos et al., 2021). \r\nTheir success will depend on consideration of the future climate \r\nniche when restoring peatlands (Bellis et  al., 2021) or long-lived \r\nspecies with limited mobility (high confidence) (Hazarika et al., 2021). \r\nThe combination of supporting the resilience of species, increasing \r\nfunctional diversity of habitats and assisting the migration of species \r\nat the limit of their adaptive capacity (Park and Talbot, 2018) is needed \r\nto protect and restore ecosystems (e.g., forests) (Boiffin et al., 2017; \r\nMessier et  al., 2019). Successful interventions consider habitat and \r\nthe ecological and evolution interactions of species (Seho et  al., \r\n2019; Diallo et  al"


id: 8bc88b7a7b08ae3773c615f628cc8b19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19511
content:
"The solution space for responding to climate-change risks for terrestrial \r\necosystems has increased in parts of Europe (medium confidence). \r\nFor example, EbA and NbS figure prominently in the EU Adaptation \r\nStrategy (2021a) and climate-change adaptation is mainstreamed in \r\nthe EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (European Comission, 2020), \r\nthe EU Forest Strategy for 2030 (European Comission, 2021b), the EU \r\nGreen Infrastructure Strategy (European Comission, 2013), as well as \r\nseveral national and regional policies. Yet, in the northern parts of EEU \r\nand NEU (e.g., Greenland, Iceland, northwest Russian Arctic), areas \r\nwhich are often sites of pronounced biodiversity shifts and changes, \r\nsolutions are lacking or slow in emergence, due to remoteness, lack \r\nof resources and sparse populations (Canosa et al., 2020)"


id: 8f52338782e4655440ef18368ab4cde7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 20097
content:
" In the EU, \r\ninnovative financing schemes, such as the Natural Capital Financing \r\nFacility, are being explored by the European Investment Bank and \r\nthe European Commission which supports projects delivering on \r\nbiodiversity and climate adaptation through tailored loans and \r\ninvestments. Multiple EU-level service platforms have been promoted \r\nto track climate-change impacts on land ecosystems and adaptation \r\n(e.g., Climate-Adapt, Copernicus Land and Fire Monitoring Service, \r\nForest Information System of Europe) (Section 13.11.1)."


id: ea0d665a862b99935ef092e7cee80c65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34320
content:
"Despite an expanding solution space, widespread implementation and \r\nmonitoring of natural and planned adaptation across Europe is currently \r\nlimited, due to high management costs, undervaluation of nature, and \r\nconservation laws and regulations that do not consider species shifts \r\nunder future socioeconomic and climatic changes (high confidence) \r\n(Kabisch et al., 2016; Prober et al., 2019; Fernandez-Anez et al., 2021). \r\nClimate risks are not perceived as urgent due to a continuing perception \r\nof the high adaptive capacity of ecosystems (Uggla and Lidskog, 2016; \r\nEsteve et al., 2018; Vulturius et al., 2018). Limited financial resources \r\nprevent widespread implementation of large-scale and connected \r\nconservation areas (high confidence) (Hermoso et al., 2017; Lee et al., \r\n2019; Krause et al., 2020). Particularly in WCE, competition for land use \r\nwith other functions, including mitigation options, is a critical barrier \r\nto implementation of adaptation"


id: 121c7b211427340b73d79014cbcf191a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 347
content:
" Risks to terrestrial and freshwater \r\necosystems are rarely integrated into regional and local land-use \r\nplanning, land development plans, and agro-system management \r\n(medium confidence) (Nila et al., 2019; Heikkinen et al., 2020a)."


id: 5b5a16f7df6ec91b36a6a2f6d216834e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11878
content:
"Biological and ecological impacts have cascading effects for marine \r\necosystem functioning (Chivers et  al., 2017; Baird et  al., 2019) and \r\nbiogeochemical cycling (Huete-Stauffer et  al., 2011; Munari, 2011; \r\nKersting et al., 2013; Rivetti et al., 2014; Garrabou et al., 2019). In TEUS, \r\nincreased water-column stratification (Section  13.1) and decreasing \r\neutrophication, result in reduced primary production (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 13.11; Capuzzo et al., 2018) and productivity at higher trophic \r\nlevels (high confidence) (Free et  al., 2019), while in NEUS sea ice \r\ndecline has resulted in primary production increase by 40-60% (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure  13.11; Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015; Borsheim, \r\n2017; Lewis et al., 2020). Climate-related deoxygenation impacts are \r\nsmall in most European waters (medium confidence) (Figure 13.11), \r\nexpect for semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic and Black seas (Frolov \r\net al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2014; Reusch et al., 2018)"


id: bd10a6bf02d9d19330bb2d335e7a1376
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27309
content:
" Here warming and \r\neutrophication have altered ecosystem functioning (high confidence), \r\nreduced potential fish yield and increased harmful algal blooms \r\n(Alekseev et al., 2014; Carstensen et al., 2014; Berdalet et al., 2017; "


id: c11b635e3f3079a4a368a21ab19cf85d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
"formation (medium confidence) (Ragazzola et  al., 2016). Regionally \r\n(Brodie et  al., 2014), differences in species-specific vulnerability \r\nwill result in community shifts from calcifying macroalgae (medium \r\nconfidence) (Ragazzola et al., 2013) to non-calcifying macroalgae (high \r\nconfidence) (Gordillo et al., 2016). Experimental studies demonstrated \r\nhigh resilience of some important habitat formers, such as the deep\u0002water coral Lophelia pertusa (Wall et al., 2015; Morato et al., 2020), \r\nand habitat engineers, such as Mediterranean limpets (Langer et al., \r\n2014), facilitated by energy reallocation. However, if not supported \r\nby sufficient food availability (Thomsen et  al., 2013; Clements and \r\nDarrow, 2018), such energy reallocation will negatively impact growth \r\nor reproduction (medium confidence) (Thomsen et al., 2013; Buscher \r\net  al., 2017)"


id: 9d9fe86f6b20a9639504a51bee247d37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22332
content:
" This suggests that acidification risks will be amplified \r\nby increased stratification and reduced primary production (medium \r\nconfidence). The emergence of harmful algal blooms and pathogens \r\nat higher GWLs is unclear across all European seas (low confidence) \r\n(Figure 13.11)."


id: 40dd5b373611f3731e6092adb5d84e98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7591
content:
"Risks to marine and coastal European ecosystems are very likely to \r\nintensify (Figure  13.11) in response to projected further warming. \r\nSince the capacity of natural systems for autonomous adaptation is \r\nlimited (medium confidence) (Thomsen et al., 2017; Miller et al., 2018; \r\nBindoff et al., 2019), pronounced changes in community composition \r\nand biodiversity patterns are projected by 2100 for TEUS and the \r\neastern Mediterranean Sea (SEUS) for >3degC GWL (Garcia  Molinos \r\net  al., 2016), challenging conservation efforts (Corrales et  al., 2018; \r\nCramer et al., 2018; Kim et al., 2019). At 1.5degC GWL, particularly in \r\nwinter, Mediterranean coastal fish communities are projected to lose \r\n~10% of species, increasing to ~60% at 4degC GWL (Dahlke et  al., \r\n2020), exacerbating regime shifts linked to overexploitation (medium \r\nconfidence) (Clark et  al., 2020)"


id: 9413586ea32d6fa4ce9b4829ed674a10
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20802
content:
" Warming at this level will threaten \r\nmany species currently living in marine protected areas (MPAs) in \r\nTEUS and NEUS (Bruno et  al., 2018). Increasing marine heatwaves \r\n(MWHs), particularly in SEUS at 4degC GWL (Darmaraki et al., 2019a), \r\nelevate risks for species (Galli et al., 2017), coastal biodiversity, and \r\necosystem functions, goods and services (Smale et al., 2019); however, \r\nMWH-related risk levels differ among biotas (Pansch et al., 2018) and \r\nacross European seas (Smale et al., 2015)."


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vector_id: 3875
content:
"Risks to marine biotas and ecosystems in European seas are projected \r\nto impact important ecosystem services (Figure 13.11). Elevated CO2\r\nlevels predicted at 4degC GWL will affect the C/N ratio of organic-matter \r\nexport and, hence, the efficiency of the biological pump (low confidence), \r\ndepending on the shifts in plankton composition and, hence, food-web \r\nstructure (Taucher et al., 2020). Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) will \r\nbenefit with enhanced larval growth and survival from indirect food\u0002web effects (Sswat et al., 2018a), whereas Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) \r\nwill face overall negative impacts (medium confidence) (Section 13.5; \r\nStiasny et al., 2018; Stiasny et al., 2019). Anoxic dead zones in the Black \r\n(Altieri and Gedan, 2015) and the Baltic (Jokinen et al., 2018; Reusch \r\net al., 2018) seas are projected to increase, for example, by 5% in the \r\nBaltic Sea at 4degC GWL (Saraiva et al., 2019)"


id: 55f7767adc7bf1900019f2b152fadc13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 11012
content:
" Europe's coastal vegetated \r\n'blue carbon' ecosystems (subtidal seagrass meadows and intertidal \r\nsalt marshes) are highly vulnerable (Spencer et  al., 2016; Schuerch \r\net al., 2018; Spivak et al., 2019), particularly in microtidal areas such as \r\nthe Baltic and Mediterranean coast. Losses are projected for Posidonia \r\noceanica seagrass habitats in the Mediterranean by up to 75% at \r\n2.5degC GWL (low confidence) (Chapter 3). The Wadden Sea, the world's \r\nlargest system of intertidal flats, is projected to reduce in surface area \r\nand height, as the sediment transport capacity limits the possibility of \r\ngrowth with rapidly rising sea levels (Wang et al., 2018; Jiang et al., \r\n2020). For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the critical rate of 6-10 mm yr-1, at \r\nwhich intertidal flats will start to 'drown', will be reached by 2030 at \r\n1.5degC GWL (medium confidence), or even earlier through subsidence \r\ndue to human activities (van der Spek, 2018)"


id: 5f0faa5a2e4e79c9e73018cd3b37eac3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12503
content:
" European coastal zones \r\nprovided a total of 494 billion EUR of ecosystem services in 2018, and \r\n4.2-5.1% of this value will be lost due to coastal erosion by 2100 at \r\n2.5degC and 4.6degC GWL, respectively (medium confidence) (Paprotny \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 43527d96d8c9d6720aff9132a2887de7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 7997
content:
"Marine primary production is projected to further decrease by 2100 \r\nin most European seas between 0.3% at 1.5degC GWL to 2.7% at 4degC \r\nGWL (high confidence) (Figure 13.11), mainly caused by stratification\u0002driven reductions in nutrient availability, impacting food webs (Doney \r\net al., 2012; Laufkoetter et al., 2015; Wakelin et al., 2015; Salihoglu \r\net al., 2017; Holt et al., 2018; Bryndum-Buchholz et al., 2019; Carozza \r\net al., 2019; Kwiatkowski et al., 2019). In the Barents Sea, however, \r\nlargely stable primary production is projected under all scenarios in \r\nresponse to sea ice decline (Slagstad et al., 2011) and in the eastern \r\nMediterranean due to reduced stratification (Macias et  al., 2015; \r\nMoullec et al., 2019). These changes in productivity are projected to \r\nincrease fish and macroinvertebrate biomass between 5 and 22% \r\n(Moullec et al., 2019). Decreasing net primary production will impact \r\nhigher trophic levels (Section 13.5.1), for example, in TEUS (Holt et al"


id: 9fe17b7af6baf59d47c6f6ac0462da6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22691
content:
", \r\n2016; Holt et al., 2018). Marine animal biomass is projected to likely \r\ndecline in most European waters, with decreases <10% under all \r\nscenarios until the 2030s but losses growing to 25% at 2degC GWL and \r\n50% at 4degC GWL in coastal waters of the northeast Atlantic (Lotze \r\net al., 2019; Bryndum-Buchholz et al., 2020)."


id: 4ee2ab9a2d8608b92cdddf845e49d1c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 9848
content:
"permitted uses (Chapter 3; Selig et  al., 2014; Hopkins et  al., 2016a; \r\nRoberts et al., 2017). The extent of MPAs has been increasing in Europe, \r\nalbeit with strong regional variations (Figure 13.12). These MPAs provide \r\nprotection from local stressors, such as commercial exploitation, and \r\nenhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems, thus lessening \r\nthe impacts of climate change (medium confidence) (Narayan et  al., \r\n2016; Roberts et al., 2017); however, climate-change risk reduction is \r\nonly a limited MPA objective (Hopkins et al., 2016b; Rilov et al., 2019). \r\nThe implementation of the legal frameworks, such as the EC Habitats \r\nDirective and EC Birds Directive, allows for enabling adaptation \r\n(Verschuuren, 2015) as does the incorporation of climate considerations \r\nin management of Natura 2000 sites (European Comission, 2014). There \r\nis evidence that better international cooperation is required to increase \r\nthe effectiveness of the MSFD (Cavallo et  al"


id: 8cd25e2289e0ed3d569830a69d17f328
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 19672
content:
", 2019), and the Good \r\nEnvironmental Status is currently not effectively monitored (Machado \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 74e1cf951745426c7765d5d9746335c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15982
content:
"Conservation approaches (e.g., MPAs, climate refugia), habitat \r\nrestoration efforts (Bekkby et al., 2020) and further ecosystem-based \r\nmanagement policies do support alleviation of, or adaptation to, \r\nclimate-change impacts (medium confidence) but are themselves \r\nimpacted by climate change (Chapter 3). Moreover, the interaction of \r\nadaptation and mitigation measures poses risks to marine systems. \r\nMany coastal regions of the North Sea, especially in the south, are \r\nparticularly susceptible to rising sea levels because of the strong \r\ntidal regime and the effects of storm surges (Figure  13.3). Hard \r\nmeasures to protect human infrastructure against SLR (Section 13.2) \r\nwill lead to loss of coastal habitats, with negative impacts on marine \r\nbiodiversity (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Airoldi and Beck, \r\n2007; Cooper et al., 2016)"


id: b415cd4416e42964d776d91d2e01d77e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25849
content:
" While rising sea levels will also directly \r\nthreaten intertidal and beach ecosystems, coastal wetlands will benefit \r\n(medium confidence), in case lateral accommodation space and the \r\nopportunity for systems to migrate landward and upwards is provided, \r\nenhancing their ability to capture and store carbon (Lecocq et  al., \r\n2022; Rogers et al., 2019). In general, European coastal blue carbon \r\necosystems (e.g., seagrass meadows, kelp forests, tidal marshes) \r\n(Bekkby et  al., 2020) are potentially effective as carbon sinks in \r\nclimate mitigation, akin to reforestation efforts on land (Section 13.3); \r\nhowever, their expansion has the potential to interfere with other \r\necosystem services (Cadier et al., 2020) and biodiversity conservation \r\n(Howard et  al., 2017; Chausson et  al., 2020)"


id: 9baae7d8d599583a86597348745d67b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22047
content:
" The 'Blue Growth' \r\nstrategy of the European Commission with the aim to increase offshore \r\nactivities (European Comission, 2012) will increase the pressures on \r\nthe marine environments (medium confidence). Large-scale offshore \r\nwind-park infrastructure is currently developed in European seas, \r\nmostly in the North Sea (WindEuropeBusinessIntelligence, 2019), as \r\na major component of climate-change mitigation efforts (Clarke et al., \r\n2022). The introduction of novel hard-substrate intertidal habitats \r\nhas, and will continue to have, profound ecological ramifications for \r\nmarine systems, including hydrodynamic changes, stepping stones for \r\nnon-native species, noise and vibration, and changes in the food web \r\n(high confidence) (Lindeboom et al., 2011; De Mesel et al., 2015; Gill \r\net al., 2018; Dannheim et al., 2019)."


id: fef26b2f3450ae38853d2e712b3fc7d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37658
content:
"Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro\u0002climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season (high \r\nconfidence) (Ceglar et al., 2019). Warming and precipitation changes \r\nsince 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and \r\nbarley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet (high confidence) \r\n(Fontana et al., 2015; Moore and Lobell, 2015; Ray et al., 2015; Ceglar \r\net al., 2017). Heat stress has increased in SEU in spring, in summer \r\nthroughout Central and Southern Europe, and recently expanded into \r\nthe southern boreal zone (Fontana et al., 2015; Ceglar et al., 2019). \r\nDrought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and \r\nheat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause \r\neconomic losses in forest productivity (Schuldt et al., 2020), annual and \r\npermanent crops, and livestock farming (Stahl et al., 2016), including \r\nlosses in wheat production in the EU (van der Velde et al"


id: ce4f6a2dcff71521a8542413a20d81b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 29991
content:
", 2018) and \r\nEEU (high confidence) (Ivanov et al., 2016; Loboda et al., 2017), with \r\nthe severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over \r\nthe past 50  years (Bras et  al., 2021). Meteorological extremes due \r\nto compound effects of cold winters, excessive autumn and spring \r\nprecipitation, and summer drought caused production losses (up to \r\n30% relative to trend expectations) in 2012, 2016 and 2018 (Ben-Ari \r\net al., 2018; van der Velde et al., 2018; Zscheischler et al., 2018; Toreti "


id: ca3cbf14dbf6311638fb33da8c01750a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29376
content:
"Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is \r\nincreasing since AR5 (high confidence). While there is high agreement \r\nof the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due \r\nto differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation \r\noptions are represented (high confidence) (Donatelli et  al., 2015; \r\nMoore and Lobell, 2015; Knox et al., 2016; Webber et al., 2018). At \r\n1.5degC GWL, compound events which led to recent large wheat losses \r\nare projected to become 12% more frequent (Ben-Ari et  al., 2018). \r\nGrowing regions will shift northward or expand for melons (Bisbis \r\net al., 2019), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 \r\nunder 1.5degC GWL (high confidence) (Hannah et  al., 2013; Litskas \r\net al., 2019), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese \r\ncabbage and French beans (Bisbis et al., 2019) (medium confidence)"


id: f7c42f6f027c3e98eb19b320445949df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36499
content:
" \r\nIn response to 2degC GWL, agro-climatic zones in Europe are expected to \r\nmove northward 25-135 km per decade, fastest in EEU (Ceglar et al., \r\n2019). Negative impacts of warming and drought are counterbalanced \r\nby CO2 fertilisation for crops such as winter wheat (medium confidence, \r\nmedium agreement), resulting in some regional yield increases with \r\nclimate change (Zhao et al., 2017; Webber et al., 2018)."


id: ffae98cd047789cafcd2d35158927266
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37770
content:
"Climate change is altering the structure and function of European \r\nforests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2, \r\nas well as through interaction with pests and fire (high confidence) \r\n(Section 13.3.1; Moreno et al., 2018; Morin et al., 2018; Senf et al., 2018; \r\nOrlova-Bienkowskaja et al., 2020). Species-specific responses of trees to \r\ndrier summers (Vitali et al., 2018) shape regional variability in European \r\nforest productivity in response to water and nutrient availability, \r\nheatwave and evaporative demand (Reyer et al., 2014; Kellomaki et al., \r\n2018). While warming and extended growing seasons have positive \r\nimpacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU (Pretzsch \r\net al., 2014; Matskovsky et al., 2020), EEU (Tei et al., 2017) and higher \r\naltitude (Sedmakova et al., 2019), drought stress across Europe has been \r\nincreasing (high confidence) (Primicia et al., 2015; Marques et al., 2018; \r\nRuiz-Perez and Vico, 2020)"


id: 15e731b85facf597b404f56eb6c9ce06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 965
content:
" Combined with land use, climate change has \r\nincreased large-scale forest mortality since the 1980s (Senf et al., 2018). \r\nExtreme events, such as the 2018 drought in WCE, caused widespread \r\nleaf shedding and tree mortality (Buras et al., 2020) with carryovers into \r\n2019 (Schuldt et al., 2020), as well as bark beetle outbreaks (Netherer \r\net al., 2019) resulting in felling and cutting of more than 1 million ha of \r\nspruce forest and disrupting timber markets (Mauser, 2021)."


id: af69d4a546bdf1e3161d07290038bc7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25110
content:
"In response to 3degC GWL, forest productivity is projected to increase \r\nin NEU and altitudes, show mixed trends in WCE and decrease in \r\nSEU (medium confidence) (Reyer et  al., 2014). This trend is driven by \r\nincreases in productivity of pine and spruce, and decreases of beech \r\nand oak, and excludes disturbances and management options (Reyer \r\net al., 2014). Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of \r\nfire and other natural disturbances (Section 13.3.1), resulting in forest \r\nproductivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO2 (high \r\nconfidence) (Seidl et al., 2014; Reyer et al., 2017). In response to 1.7degC \r\nGLW, managed forest and unmanaged woodland areas are projected \r\nto decrease only minimally, while at GWL >2.5degC losses are increasing \r\nfor managed forest and unmanaged woodland (Harrison et al., 2019). \r\nReducing warming from 4degC GLW to below 1.7degC GLW would reduce the \r\nEurope-wide impacts on managed forest by 34% (Harrison et al"


id: 7fd1ba8c48ba639ded4c62bd31847c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17655
content:
"Adaptation practices for livestock systems on European farms commonly \r\nfocus on controlling cooling, shade provision and management of \r\nfeeding times (Gauly et al., 2013). These options are used in indoors\u0002reared species (Gauly et al., 2013) but are limited in mountain pastures \r\n(high confidence) (Deleglise et al., 2019). Response options to insufficient \r\namounts and quality of fodder include changing feeding strategies \r\n(Kaufman et al., 2017; Ammer et al., 2018), feed additives (Ghizzi et al., \r\n2018), relocating livestock linked to improved pasture management, \r\norganic farming (Rojas-Downing et  al., 2017; EEA, 2019c), importing \r\nfodder and reducing stock (Toreti et  al., 2019b). Dairy systems that \r\nmaximise the use of grazed pasture are considered more environmentally \r\nsustainable but are not fully supported by policy and markets (medium \r\nconfidence) (Hennessy et al., 2020)"


id: 27cc35337c5643a67c16de0f95aba5ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 3671
content:
" Genetic adaptation of crops, pasture \r\nand animals could be a long-term adaptation strategy (Anzures-Olvera \r\net al., 2019; Deleglise et al., 2019). Control strategies for pathogens and \r\nvectors include indoor or outdoor rearing and applying new diagnostic \r\ntools or drugs (Bett et al., 2017; Vercruysse et al., 2018), and regulations \r\nto ensure safe trade and reduce the risk of introducing or spreading pests \r\n(European Comission, 2016)."


id: fc38ae41e7afac2101f74ab0c2d0ae95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37188
content:
"Farm management adaptation options to climate change include \r\nchanging sowing and harvest dates, changes in cultivars and irrigation, \r\nand selecting alternative crops (Figures 13.14, 13.15; Donatelli et al., \r\n2015). Irrigation is effective at reducing yield loss from heat stress \r\nand drought, for example, for wheat and maize (Figures 13.14, 13.15), \r\nbut it increases demand for water withdrawals (Siebert et al., 2017; \r\nRuiz-Ramos et al., 2018; Feyen et al., 2020). Where sufficient water \r\nand infrastructure is available, irrigation of wheat reverses yield \r\nlosses across Europe at 2degC GWL to become gains, while yield losses \r\nin maize in SEU are reduced from as much as 80 to 11% (Feyen \r\net al., 2020). Extensive droughts during the past two decades have \r\ncaused many irrigated systems in SEU to cease production (Stahl \r\net al., 2016) indicating limited adaptive capacity to heat and drought \r\n(medium confidence)"


id: 51a8c4d7ae531aa43050a0317cc27296
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10306
content:
" Water management for food production on land \r\nis becoming increasingly complex due to the need to satisfy other \r\nsocial and environmental water demands (KR3, Section 13.10) and is \r\nlimited by costs and institutional coordination (Iglesias and Garrote, \r\n2015). Agricultural water management adaptation practices include \r\nirrigation, reallocating water to other crops, improving use efficiency \r\nand soil water conservation practices (Iglesias and Garrote, 2015). In\u0002season forecasts of climate impacts on yield were successfully used \r\nfor European wheat during the 2018 drought (van der Velde et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 2b6e92131e00e5abf6674ca554159c79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4271
content:
"An increasing globalised food system makes European nations \r\nsensitive to supply chain disturbances in other parts of the world, but \r\nalso provides capacity to adapt to production shifts within Europe \r\nthrough changes in international trade (Section  13.9.1) (Alexander \r\net al., 2018; Challinor et al., 2018; Ercin et al., 2021). Consumer demand \r\nfor food and timber products can adapt to productivity changes and be \r\nmediated by price (e.g., in response to production changes or policies \r\non food-related taxation), reflect changes in preferences (e.g., towards \r\nplant-based foods motivated by environmental, ethical or health \r\nconcerns) or reductions in food waste (high confidence) (Alexander \r\net  al., 2019; Willett et  al., 2019)"


id: ad7fd03eafae2d83085f64971eb38717
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24838
content:
" Although mitigation potentials \r\nof dietary changes have received increasing attention, evidence is \r\nlacking on potential for adaptation through changes in European food \r\nconsumption and trade, despite these socioeconomic factors being a \r\nstrong driver for change (medium confidence) (Harrison et al., 2019; \r\nKebede, 2021). Calls are increasing across Europe for sustainable and \r\nresilient agri-food systems acknowledging interdependencies between \r\nproducers and consumers to deliver healthy, safe and nutritional foods \r\nand services (Section 13.7) (Venghaus and Hake, 2018)."


id: 9a2083d0b5dedfcb2a306ea277b94d37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21773
content:
"Energy demand is projected to display regional differences in response \r\nto warming beyond 2degC GWL, with a the significant southwest-to\u0002northeast decrease of heating-degree days by 2100 (particularly in \r\nnorthern Scandinavia and Russia), and a smaller north-to-south increase \r\nof cooling-degree days (Porfiriev et  al., 2017; Spinoni et  al., 2018; \r\nCoppola et  al., 2021). Under the present population numbers, total \r\nenergy demand would decrease in almost all of Europe, whereas it could \r\nincrease in some countries (e.g., UK, Spain, Norway) when considering \r\nEurostat's population projections (Klimenko et  al., 2018b; Spinoni \r\net al., 2018). There is medium confidence that peak load will increase \r\nin SEU and decrease in NEU (Damm et  al., 2017; Wenz et  al., 2017; \r\nBird et al., 2019). Beyond 2degC GWL, a shift of peak load from winter to \r\nsummer in many countries is possible (Wenz et al., 2017)"


id: 280af835a388af28025d81a8b1717553
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3709
content:
" Together with \r\nwater-cooling constraints for thermal power, this change in load may \r\nchallenge the stability of electricity networks during heatwaves (EEA, \r\n2019a). Technological factors, increased electricity use and adaptation \r\ninfluence significantly the temperature sensitivity of electricity demand \r\nand consequently risks (Damm et al., 2017; Wenz et al., 2017; Cassarino \r\net  al., 2018; Figueiredo et  al., 2020). Potential power curtailments or \r\noutages during climatic extremes may increase electricity prices (Pechan \r\nand Eisenack, 2014; Steinhauser and Eisenack, 2020)."


id: 21c183b6952df0298416b0c7fafb0e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2742
content:
"Risks of rutting and blow-ups of roads (particularly in low altitudes) \r\ndue to high summer temperatures are expected to increase in WCE \r\nand EEU at 3degC GWL (medium confidence) (Frolov et  al., 2014; \r\nMatulla et  al., 2018; Yakubovich and Yakubovich, 2018). In EEU \r\nand northern Scandinavia, the higher number of freezing-thawing \r\ncycles of construction materials will increase risks for roads (Frolov \r\net al., 2014; Yakubovich and Yakubovich, 2018; Nilsen et al., 2021), \r\nwhile warming beyond 2degC GWL could significantly reduce road \r\nmaintenance costs in NEU (Lorentzen, 2020), but limit off-road \r\noverland transport in northwest Russia (Gadeke et al., 2021). Beyond \r\n3degC GWL, more frequent hourly precipitation extremes are projected \r\nover WCE and NEU in summer (e.g., a twofold and tenfold increase, \r\nrespectively, for events exceeding the present-day 99"


id: 76f1678bf38a3be60f3032104d7fdab8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16290
content:
"99th percentile \r\nin Germany and the UK) but more widely across Europe in autumn \r\nand winter (an increase higher than tenfold for 99.99th percentile \r\nevents in SEU in autumn (Chan et  al., 2020), potentially severely \r\ndamaging roads as happened in Mandra, Greece, in 2017 (Diakakis \r\net al., 2020). Landslide risks in WCE and SEU could increase beyond \r\na 2degC GWL, threatening road networks (Schlogl and Matulla, 2018; \r\nRianna et al., 2020)."


id: 6e39f81891a94a5ea8452229065a96c2
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vector_id: 14960
content:
"At 2degC GWL and beyond, cities in SEU and large parts of WCE \r\nwould exceed the historical maximum 12-month Drought Severity \r\nindex of the past 50 years (see Section 13.2 on drought risks) and \r\n30% will have at least 30% probability of exceeding this maximum \r\nevery month (Guerreiro et al., 2018). This could adversely affect the \r\noperation of municipal water services (Kingsborough et al., 2016). For \r\nexample, under 2degC GWL, the reservoir storage volume is predicted \r\nto decrease for all of England and Wales catchments, resulting in a \r\nprobability of years with water-use restrictions doubling by 2050 and \r\nquadrupling by 2100 compared with 1975-2004 (Dobson et al., 2020). \r\nThe combination of high temperatures, drought and extreme winds, \r\npotentially coupled with insufficient preparedness and adaptation, \r\nmay amplify the damage of wildfires in peri-urban environments \r\n(Section 13.3.1.3)"


id: e0fee2c675ff20ff0f5a082646c15f04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32898
content:
" High fuel load combined with proximity of the built \r\nenvironment to wildland highly increases fire risks (EEA, 2020b)."


id: 8d28eae731f349045de0d0cac28f7bc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19732
content:
"Heatwaves are likely to become a major threat, not only for SEU but \r\nalso for WCE and EEU cities (Russo et al., 2015; Guerreiro et al., 2018; \r\nLorencova et al., 2018; Smid et al., 2019). At 2degC GWL and SSP3, half \r\nof the European population will be under very high risk of heat stress \r\nin summer (Rohat et  al., 2019). The UHI effect will further increase \r\nurban temperatures (Estrada et  al., 2017). In many cities, hospitals \r\nand social housing tend to be located within the intense UHI, thus \r\nincreasing exposure to vulnerable groups (EEA, 2020b). There is\r\nhigh confidence that overheating during summer in buildings with \r\ninsufficient ventilation and/or solar protection will increase strongly, \r\nwith thermal comfort hours potentially decreasing by 74% in SEU at \r\n3degC GWL (Jenkins et al., 2014a; Hamdy et al., 2017; Heracleous and \r\nMichael, 2018; Dino and Meral Akgul, 2019; Shen et al., 2020)"


id: 7893403d50c0f28d4d74a91ef0cf3fad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16534
content:
" Highly \r\ninsulated buildings, following present building standards, will be \r\nvulnerable to overheating, particularly under high GWL levels, unless \r\nadequate adaptation measures are applied (Williams et al., 2013; Virk \r\net al., 2014; Mulville and Stravoravdis, 2016; Fosas et al., 2018; Ibrahim \r\nand Pelsmakers, 2018; Salem et al., 2019; Tian et al., 2020). Cities in \r\nNEU and WCE are more vulnerable due to limited solar shading and "


id: 9f6b2b745c8f67c3fd4b85d4d5c6f3e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22626
content:
"Augustenborg district of Malmo, Sweden, using nature to manage \r\nstormwater runoff has resulted in capturing an estimated 90% of \r\nrunoff from impervious surfaces and reduced the total annual runoff \r\nvolume from the district by about 20% compared with the conventional \r\nsystem (EEA, 2020b). Urban greening is associated with lower ambient \r\nair temperature and relatively higher thermal comfort during warm \r\nperiods (Bowler et al., 2010; Oliveira et al., 2011; Cohen et al., 2012; \r\nCameron et al., 2014). The scale and relative degree of management \r\nor integration of approaches drawing on nature with 'engineered' \r\nsolutions affect their vulnerability to climate change"


id: 5e6b23487a28d4c49dc31efcf8c778a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12388
content:
" Small-scale \r\nurban NbS are relatively less vulnerable due to increased capacity for \r\nintervention, while the relatively greater contact between stakeholders \r\nand urban NbS (compared with larger-scale, rural approaches) provides \r\ngreater opportunity for human intervention to ensure the survival of \r\nurban vegetation during droughts or heatwaves."


id: cb7f33c4e09ae1eef3686c690aefa3b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29564
content:
"Urban adaptation plans can enhance resilience, and their development \r\nis mandatory in the UK, France and Denmark (Reckien et al., 2019). \r\nThere is medium confidence that the development of urban adaptation \r\nplanning is much more influenced by a city's population size, present \r\nadaptive capacity and GDP per capita than by anticipated climate risks \r\n(Reckien et al., 2018). A high organisational capacity in a municipality \r\nmay not be a necessary condition for forward-looking investment \r\ndecisions on urban water infrastructure, although enablers differ \r\nfor small versus medium-to-large municipalities (Pot et  al., 2019). \r\nThere is large in-country variation in policy mixes utilised by local \r\ngovernments for supporting adaptation (Lesnikowski et  al., 2019). \r\nIn early-adapter cities (e.g"


id: 18dd0821277fff94b96522dd52d505ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1413
content:
", Rotterdam), adaptation is institutionally \r\nembedded in climate, resilience and sustainability-related actions, as \r\nwell as collaboration between city departments, government levels, \r\nbusinesses and other stakeholders (Holscher et al., 2019). In most other \r\ncities, however, adaptation planners rarely consider collaborations \r\nwith citizens, and there are difficulties in departmental coordination \r\nand upscaling from pilot projects (Brink and Wamsler, 2018)."


id: b7b00857e79fdcbef1ebd5d8e272fb03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26430
content:
"Attribution studies show that human-induced climate change is \r\nincreasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and has already \r\nimpacted human health in Europe (Section  13.10.1; Vicedo-Cabrera \r\net al., 2021); for example, the 2010 heatwave in EEU resulted in 55,000 \r\nheat-related deaths (Barriopedro et al., 2011; Russo et al., 2015); also, \r\nthe 2018 heatwave in NEU (Ebi et al., 2021) and the 2019 heatwave \r\nin WCE and NEU both had significant health impacts (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DISASTER in Chapter 4; Vautard et al., 2020; Watts et al., 2021). \r\nElderly, children, (pregnant) women, socially isolated people and those \r\nwith low physical fitness are particularly exposed and vulnerable to \r\nheat-related risks, as are those people suffering from pre-existing \r\nmedical conditions, including cardiovascular disease, kidney disorders, \r\ndiabetes and respiratory diseases (de'Donato et al., 2015; Sheridan and \r\nAllen, 2018; Szopa et  al., 2021)"


id: 2145414e1f901d3cde070ae55b8f7ee9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2671
content:
" An ageing population in Europe is \r\nincreasing the pool of vulnerable individuals, resulting in higher risk \r\nof heat-related mortality (Montero et al., 2012; Carmona et al., 2016b; \r\nWHO, 2018b; Watts et al., 2021)."


id: 1155b033cff43729744559eab55c211b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 209
content:
"Air pollution is already one of the biggest public health concerns \r\nin Europe: in 2016, roughly 412,000 people died prematurely due \r\nto long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5, 71,000 due to NO2 and \r\nmore than 15,000 premature mortalities occurred due to near\u0002surface ozone (EEA, 2019b; Lelieveld et  al., 2019). The impacts \r\nof air pollution are determined by air-quality policies, changes \r\nto temperature, humidity and precipitation (Szopa et  al., 2021). \r\nClimate change could increase air pollution health effects, with the \r\nsize of the effect differing across European regions and pollutants \r\n(medium confidence) (Jacob and Winner, 2009; Orru et  al., 2017; \r\nTarin-Carrasco et al., 2021). Increases in temperature and changes \r\nin precipitation will impact future air quality due to increased risk \r\nof wildfires and related air pollution episodes. Data on the health \r\nimpacts of wildfires in Europe is currently limited (Section 13.3.1"


id: c536ed25c53357932e05031abf67f428
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28608
content:
"4), \r\nbut examples, such as the 2017 fires, suggest that more than 100 \r\npeople died prematurely in Portugal alone as a result of poor air \r\nquality (Oliveira et al., 2020)."


id: 68e8bcf681224cccc6e05ec9f9cdb136
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14096
content:
"A GWL of 1.5degC could result in 30,000 annual deaths due to extreme \r\nheat, with up to threefold the number under 3degC GWL (high confidence) \r\n(Roldan et al., 2015; Forzieri et al., 2017; Kendrovski et al., 2017; Naumann \r\net al., 2020). The risk of heat stress, including mortality and discomfort, \r\nis dependent on socioeconomic development (Figure  13.22; Rohat \r\net al., 2019; Ebi et al., 2021). Heat stress risks will be lower under SSP1 \r\nthan the SSP3 or SSP4 scenarios (high confidence) (Hunt et al., 2017; \r\nRohat et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2020; Ebi et al., 2021). The incidence of \r\nheat-related mortality and morbidity will be highest in SEU, where their \r\nmagnitude is also expected to increase more rapidly (Forzieri et al., 2017; \r\nGasparrini et al., 2017; Guo et al., 2018; Diaz et al., 2019; Vicedo-Cabrera \r\net al., 2021). WCE, NEU and SEU will experience accelerating negative \r\nconsequences beyond 1"


id: eae29c81ffac47497e622f4f5a08e7d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34461
content:
"5degC GWL, particularly under SSP3 and SSP4 \r\ndue to higher vulnerability compared with SSP1 (Figure  13.22; Rohat \r\net al., 2019). The number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions \r\nis projected to increase from 11,000 (1981-2010) to 26,000 annually \r\n(2021-2050), particularly in SEU mainly due to a relative increase in \r\nthe number of extremely hot days (Astrom et al., 2013). Cold spells are \r\nprojected to decrease across Europe, particularly in Southern Europe, \r\nbut do not compensate for the additional heat-related deaths projected \r\n(Lhotka and Kysely, 2015; Carmona et al., 2016a; Martinez et al., 2018)."


id: d6b755aeb59699eba5320939683c49a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31287
content:
"At 2.5degC GWL, mortalities due to exposure to PM2.5 are projected to \r\nincrease by up to 73% in Europe (medium confidence) (Silva et al., \r\n2017; Lelieveld et al., 2019; Tarin-Carrasco et al., 2021). At 2degC GWL, \r\nannual premature mortalities due to exposure to near-surface ozone \r\nare projected to increase up to 11% in WCE and SEU and to decrease \r\nup to 9% in NEU (under RCP4.5) (medium confidence) (Orru et al., \r\n2019). A projected increase in wildfires and reduced air quality is \r\nexpected to increase respiratory morbidity and mortality, especially \r\nin SEU (Slezakova et  al., 2013; de Rigo et  al., 2017). Constant or \r\nlower emissions, combined with stricter regulations and new policy \r\ninitiatives, might improve air quality in the coming decades (medium \r\nagreement, low evidence). The ageing population in Europe will \r\naugment the air-quality mortality burden 3-13% by 2050 (Geels \r\net al., 2015; Orru et al., 2019)"


id: c0cac2413ebc6c1de94edd630e4289e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27895
content:
" Besides ambient air quality, projected \r\nincreases in flood risk and heavy rainfall could decrease indoor air \r\nquality (Section 13.6.1.5.2) due to dampness and mould, leading to \r\nincreased negative health impacts, including allergies, asthma and \r\nrhinitis (EASAC, 2019; EEA, 2019b)."


id: 5ad40f63fbe5c4fab28a5beec1a8aebe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11807
content:
"The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is present in many \r\nEuropean countries and can transmit dengue, chikungunya and zika \r\n(Liu-Helmersson et al., 2016; Tjaden et al., 2017; Messina et al., 2019). \r\nThere is a moderate climatic suitability projected for chikungunya \r\ntransmission, notably across France, Spain and Germany, but also \r\ncontractions particularly in Italy. Europe experienced an exceptionally \r\nearly and intense transmission season of the West Nile virus in 2018, \r\nwith elevated spring temperature abnormalities (Haussig et al., 2018; \r\nMarini et al., 2020). Projections for Europe show the West Nile virus \r\nrisk to expand: by 2025, the risk is projected to increase in SEU and \r\nsouthern and eastern parts of WCE (medium confidence) (Semenza \r\net  al., 2016)"


id: 39488ffa0d222260a8d492b6f4c63396
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6388
content:
" Although climatic suitability for malaria transmission \r\nin Europe is increasing and will lead to a northward spread of the \r\noccurrences of Anopheles vectors, the risk from malaria to human \r\nhealth in Europe remains low due to economic and social development \r\nas well as access to health care (medium confidence) (Sudre et al., \r\n2013; Hertig, 2019)."


id: d5bb21264a094d961da2437a076bb9f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31145
content:
"There is growing evidence that climate change will negatively affect \r\nfood quality (diversity of food, nutrient density and food safety) and \r\nfood access, although the risks for European citizens are significantly \r\nlower compared with other regions (Fanzo et al., 2018; IFPRI, 2018). \r\nProjected changes in crop and livestock production (Section 13.5.1), \r\nparticularly reduced access to fruits and vegetables and foods with \r\nlower nutritional quality, will impact already vulnerable groups \r\n(Swinburn et al., 2019). The effects of climate change on food quality \r\nand access varies by income, livelihood and nutrient requirements, \r\nwith low-income and more vulnerable groups in Europe most affected \r\n(IFPRI, 2018). Spikes in food prices due to changing growing conditions \r\nin Europe (Section 13.5.1), increased competition for land (e.g"


id: 80f3c64ba19472f86920bb5fafef62f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17810
content:
", land\u0002based climate-change mitigation) and feedbacks from international \r\nmarkets are expected to decrease access to affordable and nutritious \r\nfood (Section 13.9.1; EASAC, 2019; Loopstra, 2020). Reduced access to \r\nhealthy and varied food could contribute to being overweight or obese, \r\nwhich is a growing health concern across Europe (Springmann et al., \r\n2016). Increased rates of obesity and diabetes further exacerbate risks \r\nfrom heat-related events (EASAC, 2019)."


id: d387545a96ec898acea3f98a8b10fa70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30808
content:
"Extreme weather events can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder \r\n(PTSD), anxiety and depression; this is well-documented for flooding \r\nin Europe (high confidence) but less for other extreme weather events. \r\nFor example, in the UK, flooded residents suffered stress and identity \r\nloss from the flood event itself, but also from subsequent disputes with \r\ninsurance and construction companies (Carroll et  al., 2009; Greene \r\net al., 2015). Residents displaced from their homes for at least 1 year \r\ndue to 2013-2014 floods in England were significantly more likely to \r\nexperience PTSD, depression and anxiety, with stronger effects in the \r\nabsence of advance warning (Munro et al., 2017; Waite et al., 2017). \r\nThere is emerging evidence across Europe that young people may \r\nbe experiencing anxiety about climate change, although it is unclear \r\nhow widespread or severe this is (Hickman, 2019)"


id: 7b129b1d9fb1d1d86d0f6a5c6c467636
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16959
content:
" In northern Italy, \r\nthe number of daily emergency psychiatric visits and mean daily air \r\ntemperature has been linked (Cervellin et al., 2014)."


id: c2b9c0137eea030bb061dd859fb4bd6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28219
content:
"Extreme heat and cold waves have been linked to an increased risk of \r\noccupational injuries (Martinez-Solanas et al., 2018) and changes in \r\nlabour productivity (Orlov et al., 2019; Garcia-Leon et al., 2021), while \r\nevidence on the consequences of other extreme events is lacking. \r\nThe sectors with a high percentage of high-intensity outdoor work in \r\nEurope, mainly agriculture and construction, have the highest risk of \r\nincreased injury and labour productivity losses, but also manufacturing \r\nand service sectors can be affected when air conditioning is not \r\navailable (Section  13.6.1.3; Gosling et  al., 2018; Szewczyk et  al., \r\n2018; Dellink et al., 2019; Orlov et al., 2019). The heatwaves of August \r\n2003, July 2010 and July 2015 were concentrated in SEU and led to \r\nreductions in monthly worker productivity of on average 3-3.5% in \r\nSEU, ranging up to 8-9% in Cyprus (2003, 2010) and Italy (2015) \r\n(Orlov et al"


id: 17c19da2b95d3538c7c2991ecdf9b48f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1235
content:
"Figure 13.24 presents the assessment of the feasibility and effectiveness \r\nof key heat-related health adaptation actions. It shows that substantial \r\nsocial-cultural and institutional barriers complicate widespread \r\nimplementation of measures; studies on the implementation of new \r\nblue-green spaces in existing urban structures in, for example, Sweden \r\n(Wihlborg et al., 2019), the UK (Carter et al., 2018) and the Netherlands \r\n(Aalbers et al., 2019), point to important feasibility challenges (e.g., access \r\nto financial resources, societal opposition, competition for space) (high \r\nconfidence). Lower perception of health risks has been observed among \r\nvulnerable groups which, in conjunction with perceived high costs of \r\nprotective measures, act as barriers to implementing health adaptation \r\nplans (van Loenhout et al., 2016; Macintyre et al., 2018; Martinez et al., \r\n2019)"


id: db279099ac7ef86351dbad615579743c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31994
content:
" Key barriers to mental health adaptation actions include lack \r\nof funding, coordination, monitoring and training (e.g., psychological \r\nfirst aid) (Hayes and Poland, 2018). Existing health measures, such as \r\nmonitoring and early warning systems, play an important role in detecting \r\nand communicating emerging climate risks and weather extremes (high \r\nconfidence) (Confalonieri et al., 2015; Casanueva et al., 2019; Linares \r\net  al., 2020). Stricter enforcement of existing health regulations and \r\npolicies can have a positive effect in reducing risks (Berry et al., 2018)."


id: a607b34ca5ddcee8460a30c44ca295af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23673
content:
"Health adaptation actions have demonstrable synergies and trade\u0002offs (Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter 7). For example, increasing \r\ngreen-blue spaces in Europe's densely populated areas can be effective \r\nin improving microclimates, reducing the impact of heatwaves, improving \r\nair quality and improving mental health by increasing access to fresh air \r\nand green (restorative) environments (Gascon et al., 2015; Kondo et al., \r\n2018; Kumar et al., 2019). Health adaptations can also have negative \r\ntrade-offs, be inconsistent with mitigation ambitions and could lead \r\nto maladaptation. Green-blue spaces, for example, may create new \r\nnesting grounds for carriers of vector-borne diseases, increase pollen \r\nand allergies (Kabisch et al., 2016), enlarge freshwater use for irrigation \r\n(Reyes-Paecke et al., 2019) and could raise climate equity and justice \r\nissues such as green gentrification (Yazar et  al., 2019)"


id: 5a5c5b4a4f52c6198bc404f493ee78fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11729
content:
" Similarly, air \r\nconditioning and cooling devices are considered highly effective but \r\nhave low economic and social feasibility as well as negative trade\u0002offs due to increasing energy consumption, raising energy costs which \r\nis particularly challenging for the poor (Section  13.8.1.1), enhancing \r\nthe UHI effect and increasing noise pollution (Fernandez Milan and \r\nCreutzig, 2015; Hunt et al., 2017; Macintyre et al., 2018)."


id: 390a6396fdb191399ef3da1edb6dce39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6347
content:
"progress, limited mainstreaming of climate change has been observed, \r\nparticularly due to low societal pressure to change, confidence in existing \r\nhealth systems and lack of awareness of links between human health \r\nand climate change (medium confidence) (Austin et  al., 2016; WHO, \r\n2018b; Watts et al., 2021). Coordination of health adaptation actions \r\nacross scales and between public sectors is needed to ensure timely and \r\neffective responses for a diversity of health impacts (high confidence) \r\n(Austin et al., 2018; Ebi et al., 2018). Key enabling conditions to extend \r\nthe solution space include increasing the role for national and regional \r\ngovernments in facilitating knowledge sharing across scales, allocating \r\ndedicated financial resources, and creating dedicated knowledge and \r\npolicy programmes on climate and health (Wolf et al., 2014; Akin et al., \r\n2015; Curtis et al., 2017)"


id: d692a45da987f446282796ed67b31a91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31269
content:
" Investing in public healthcare systems more \r\nbroadly increases their capacity to respond to climate-related extreme \r\nevents and will ensure wider societal benefits as the COVID-19 pandemic \r\nhas demonstrated (Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7)."


id: 25ed84ddc0204f30314a665331f79cc4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3389
content:
"Rapid land-use change reduces the ability to adapt (high confidence) (Tyler, 2010; Lof, 2013). National and EU policies expand land uses \r\nfor mining, wind energy and bioeconomy in the area, causing loss, fragmentation and degradation of pastures, and increasing human \r\ndisturbance to animals (medium confidence) (Kivinen et al., 2012; Skarin and Ahman, 2014; Kivinen, 2015; Skarin et al., 2015; Sandstrom \r\net al., 2016; Beland Lindahl et al., 2017; Osterlin and Raitio, 2020). The cumulative impacts of these land uses on pastures are not \r\nadequately assessed or recognised in land-use planning (Klocker Larsen et al., 2017; Klocker Larsen et al., 2018). Herding communities \r\nface strong barriers to protecting their rights and halting further degradation of pastures (medium confidence) (Allard, 2018; Klocker \r\nLarsen and Raitio, 2019; Raitio et al., 2020)"


id: 7b3050fedb092dac338c6a79643d511d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16971
content:
" Attempts by herding communities to stop mining projects have led to conflicts with other \r\nactors, including racist hate incidences (Persson et al., 2017; Beland Lindahl et al., 2018). Combined with land-use conflicts, climate \r\nimpacts cause reduced psycho-social health and increase suicidal thoughts among herders (low confidence) (Kaiser et al., 2010; Furberg \r\net al., 2011)."


id: c052e9d7bdf281e1fbc3abafb9dd5bc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27819
content:
"European territories outside Europe are critically exposed to climate \r\nrisks such as increased forest fires (e.g., in Russian Siberia) (Chapter \r\n10; Sitnov et  al., 2017), climate-change-induced biodiversity losses \r\nand SLR (e.g., in British, Spanish, Portuguese, French and Dutch \r\noverseas regions and territories) (Chapters 12, 15; Ferdinand, 2018; \r\nSieber et  al., 2018). Climate risks emerging from these territories \r\ninclude smoke and dust from Siberian forest fires (Sitnov et al., 2017) \r\nand, depending on European health-risk mitigation measures, dengue \r\nand other mosquito-transmitted diseases (Section 13.7; Schaffner and \r\nMathis, 2014). Some MPAs (Section  13.4.3) in European overseas \r\nterritories are increasingly affected by changes originating in far-field \r\nupstream areas. These changes ultimately undermine their ability to \r\ncurb biodiversity losses and provide ecosystem services (Schaffner \r\nand Mathis, 2014; Robinson et  al., 2017)"


id: dddaa3250cde4ba0aacc86630bc66b61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
"European countries can address inter-regional risks at the place of origin \r\nor destination, for example, by (a) developing local adaptation capacity \r\nin trading-partner countries and in European territories outside Europe \r\n(Petit and Prudent, 2008; Benzie et al., 2019; Adams et al., 2020; Terorotua \r\net al., 2020), (b) providing international adaptation finance (Dzebo and \r\nStripple, 2015; BMUB, 2017), (c) developing insurance mechanisms \r\nsuitable for adaptation or (d) providing European climate services to \r\nsupport global adaptation (Cross-Chapter Box  INTEREG in Chapter \r\n16; Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler, 2015; Brasseur and Gallardo, 2016; \r\nStreet, 2016; Cavelier et al., 2017). Along the supply chain, risks can be \r\nreduced by trade diversification and alternative sourcing (Benzie and \r\nPersson, 2019; Adams et al., 2020)"


id: d71c593d17a33ae62c6463b83fffc133
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
" Within Europe, risks can be reduced by \r\nintegrating inter-regional climate risks into national adaptation strategies \r\nand plans, and mainstreaming them into EU policies (e.g., Common \r\nAgricultural Policy, trade agreements) (Benzie and Persson, 2019; Benzie "


id: be6c549866a228f3489f2b4471c139f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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content:
"The burning embers on risks for humans (Figure 13.29a) differentiate \r\nbetween present and medium adaptation conditions, drawing on SSP2 \r\nand SSP4 (and to a lesser extent SSP3), and high adaptation conditions, \r\ndrawing on SSP1 and papers using various temperature adjustment \r\nmethods (Table  SM13.25). There is high confidence that the risk is \r\nalready moderate now because it has been detected and attributed \r\nwith high confidence (Section 13.10.1). The transition from moderate \r\nto high risk for human health is assessed to happen after 1.5degC GWL \r\nin a scenario with present to medium adaptation and implies a two- to \r\nthreefold increase (compared with moderate risk levels) in magnitude \r\nof consequences such as mortality, morbidity, heat stress and thermal \r\ndiscomfort (Rohat et  al., 2019; Casanueva et  al., 2020; Naumann \r\net al., 2020)"


id: a681b90e8321f51bcf9e7f0fb9d3b6c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 23724
content:
" At this level, the risk will also become more persistent \r\nacross the continent due to increase in heat events exceeding critical \r\nthresholds for health (high confidence on the direction of change and \r\ntemperature transition, but medium confidence on the magnitude) \r\n(Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 94a19b0a45f5ffd24b08a4eb071a709c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20892
content:
"Key risks (KRs) are defined as a subset of climate risks that can \r\npotentially become, or are already, severe (Section  16.5). The \r\nselection process included a review of KRs already identified in \r\nAR5 Chapter 23 (Kovats et al., 2014) and a review of the large body \r\nof new evidence on projected risks presented in Sections  13.2-\r\n13.9. Key risks are reinforced by evidence from the detection and \r\nattribution assessment (Section  13.10.1) and new evidence from \r\nWGI AR6 Chapters 11 and 12 on regional climatic impact drivers and \r\nextremes (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). Several \r\nexpert opinion workshops of lead and contributing authors led to \r\nfurther refinements, adjustment and consensus building around the \r\ncharacteristics of KRs, which ultimately guided the construction of \r\nthe burning embers (Figures  13.28-13.32; SM13.10). There is high \r\nconfidence that under low or medium adaptation, high to very high \r\nrisks are projected at 3degGWL (Figure  13"


id: b403e2a2facb21253e2de8363993d135
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25835
content:
"28; Sections  13.10.2.1-\r\n13.10.2.4). Most risks are assessed as moderate up to 1.5degGWL \r\n(Figure 13.28)."


id: b41bcae7e8b03de9d1c5aeccd90d8b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 25855
content:
"The burning embers on risk for terrestrial and marine ecosystems, \r\nand some of their services, are shown in Figure 13.28 (second and \r\nthird ember from the left) (Tables SM13.26, SM13.27). The transition \r\nto moderate risk is currently happening as warming already results in \r\nchanges in timing of development, species migration northward and \r\nupwards, and desynchronisation of species interactions, especially \r\nat the range limits, with cascading and cumulative impacts through \r\necosystems and food webs (high confidence) (Sections  13.3, 13.4; \r\nFigures 13.8, 13.12). While some terrestrial ecosystems are already \r\nimpacted today, such as Alpine, cryosphere and peatlands, the \r\nimpacts are not widespread and severe yet across a wide range of \r\nterrestrial systems. Around 2degC GWL, losses accelerate in marine \r\necosystem and appear across systems, including habitat losses \r\nespecially in coastal wetlands (Roebeling et  al., 2013; Clark et  al"


id: 17cd83583bb4c4fb3cd337cea23493b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 1242
content:
", \r\n2020), biodiversity and biomass losses (Bryndum-Buchholz et  al., \r\n2019; Lotze et al., 2019) and ecosystem services such as fishing (high \r\nconfidence on the direction of change, but medium confidence on the \r\nlocal and regional magnitude) (Raybaud et al., 2017). The transition \r\nis happening at slightly higher warming in terrestrial systems due \r\nto a higher number of thermal refugia in terrestrial systems causing \r\nrelocation but not already severe impacts (medium confidence) \r\n(Chapter 2)."


id: 3bcfafee6cb7df593259558d1c3bda23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 6770
content:
"Key risk 1 has cut across humans and ecosystems, and severe \r\nconsequences are mainly driven by an increasing frequency, intensity \r\nand duration of heat extremes and increasing average temperatures \r\n(high confidence) (Urban, 2015; Forzieri et al., 2017; Feyen et al., 2020; \r\nNaumann et al., 2020; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). The risk of human heat \r\nstress and mortality is largely influenced by underlying socioeconomic \r\npathways, with consequences being more severe under SSP3, SSP4 \r\nand SSP5 scenarios than SSP1 (very high confidence) (Figure  13.22; \r\nSections  13.6.1.5.2, 13.7.1.1; Hunt et  al., 2017; Kendrovski et  al., \r\n2017; Rohat et  al., 2019; Casanueva et  al., 2020). The SSPs impact \r\nnatural systems as well but are not yet well studied"


id: 7157c8b808664d26d4794a1beb025520
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 15471
content:
" The impact of \r\nwarming in marine systems are often synergistic with SLR in coastal \r\nsystems and ocean acidification driven by the rise in CO2, while habitat \r\nfragmentation and land use have important synergies in terrestrial \r\nsystems (high confidence) (Sections 13.3.1.2, 13.4.1.2). More intense \r\nheatwaves on land and in the ocean, particularly in Mediterranean \r\nEurope (Section 13.4; Cross-Chapter Paper 4; Darmaraki et al., 2019b; "


id: bae3131f3080f1870a388fef4872de62
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26944
content:
"and SEU leading to enhanced risk of crop failure and decrease in \r\npasture quality (Section 13.5.1; Zscheischler and Seneviratne, 2017; \r\nSedlmeier et al., 2018; Seneviratne et al., 2021). The risk is already \r\nmoderately severe due to multiple crop failures in the past decade \r\nin WCE and Russia (Section 13.5.1; Hao et al., 2018; Pfleiderer et al., \r\n2019; Vogel et al., 2019). Under high-end scenarios, heat and drought \r\nextremes are projected to become more frequent and widespread as \r\nearly as mid-century (Toreti et al., 2019a). For present to moderate \r\nadaptation and at least up to 2.5degGWL, negative consequences are \r\nmostly in SEU (Bird et al., 2016; EEA, 2019c; Moretti et al., 2019; Feyen \r\net al., 2020). The transition from moderate to high risk is projected \r\nto happen around 2.7degC GWL when hazards and risk will become \r\nmore persistent and widespread in other regions (Section  13.1; \r\nDeryng et al., 2014; Donatelli et al., 2015; Webber et al., 2018; Ceglar \r\net al"


id: 793c24e9ff04f1f981041659bc7abf19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 16641
content:
", 2019; Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). This \r\ntemperature increase will trigger shifts in agricultural zones, onset \r\nof early heat stress, losses in maize yield of up to 28% across EU\u000228 and regional disparity in losses and gains in wheat, which are \r\nnot able to offset losses across the continent (Deryng et al., 2014; \r\nSzewczyk et al., 2018; Ceglar et al., 2019). There will be also broader \r\nadverse impacts such as reduction of grassland biomass production \r\nfor fodder, increases in weeds and reduction in pollination (medium \r\nconfidence) (Castellanos-Frias et al., 2016; Nielsen et al., 2017; Bras \r\net al., 2019). Combined with socioeconomic development, increased \r\nheat and drought stress, and reduced irrigation water availability, in \r\nSEU are projected to lead to abandonment of farmland (Holman et \r\nal., 2017). Around 4degC GWL, the risk is very high due to persistent \r\nheat and dry conditions (Ben-Ari et al"


id: 930a1fbca037c217082e60d8032cb179
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 20649
content:
", 2018) and the emergence of \r\nlosses also in NEU which would be much higher without the assumed \r\nCO2 fertilisation (Deryng et al., 2014; Szewczyk et al., 2018; Harrison \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 9b4219ae7972315f202297fab93baf4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21970
content:
"Autonomous adaptation of species via migration in response to climate \r\nchange is well documented in contemporary, historical and geological \r\nrecords (Chapter 2; Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1); however, \r\nthe projected rate of climate change can exceed migration potential, \r\nleading to evolutionary adaptation or increased extinction risk (Chapters \r\n2, 3; Sections 13.3, 13.4). A reduction of non-climatic stressors, such as \r\nnutrient loads, resource extraction, habitat fragmentation or pesticides \r\non land, are considered important adaptation options to increase the \r\nresilience to climate-change impacts (high confidence) (Sections 13.3, \r\n13.4; Ramirez et al., 2018). A major governance tool to reduce climatic \r\nand non-climatic impacts is the establishment of networks of protected \r\nareas (Sections 13.3.2, 13.4"


id: 3e6b98df68d6dabece2574ee6551c8f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 7196
content:
"2) especially when aggregated, zoned or \r\nlinked with corridors for migration (high confidence), as well as a cost\u0002effective adaptation strategy with multiple additional co-benefits (Berry \r\net al., 2015; Roberts et al., 2017). Reforestation, rewilding and habitat \r\nrestoration are long-term strategies for reducing risk for biodiversity \r\nloss supported by assisted migration and evolution (Section  13.3.2, \r\n13.4), though current laws and regulations do not include species \r\nmigration (high confidence) (Prober et al., 2019; Fernandez-Anez et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 3cb819dcf556b4520f6cdba2740b2348
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6917
content:
"Farmers have historically adapted to environmental changes, and \r\nsuch autonomous adaptation will continue. Higher CO2 levels have \r\na fertilisation effect on plants that is considered to decrease crop \r\nproduction risks (Deryng et al., 2014). Adaptation solutions to heat and \r\ndrought risks include changes in sowing and harvest dates, increased \r\nirrigation, changes in crop varieties, the use of cover crops and mixed \r\nagricultural practices (Section  13.5.2; Figures  13.14, Figure  13.30b). \r\nUnder high adaptation, the use of irrigation can substantially reduce \r\nrisk by both reducing canopy temperature and drought impacts (high \r\nconfidence) (Section 13.5.2; Webber et al., 2018). Some reductions of \r\nmaize yields in SEU are still possible, but are balanced by gains in other \r\ncrops and regions (Deryng et al., 2014; Donatelli et al., 2015; Webber \r\net al., 2018; Feyen et al., 2020). At 3degC GWL and beyond, the adaptive \r\ncapacity is reduced (Ruiz-Ramos et  al., 2018)"


id: f272d23b3e1f5717600e29c7e0e8914b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35669
content:
" Crop production is a \r\nmajor consumer of water in agriculture (Gerveni et al., 2020), yet a \r\npotentially scarcer supply of water in some regions must be distributed \r\nacross many needs (KR3, Section  13.10.2.3), limiting availability to \r\nagriculture which is currently the main user of water in many regions of \r\nEurope (high confidence) (Section 13.5.1). Where the ability to irrigate \r\nis limited by water availability, other adaptation options are insufficient \r\nto mitigate crop losses in some sub-regions, particularly at 3degC GWL \r\nand above, with an increase in risk from north to south and higher risk \r\nfor late-season crops such as maize (high confidence). Under these \r\nconditions, land abandonment is projected (low confidence) (Holman \r\net al., 2017)."


id: df7c67b3981e713c429c284a18f737fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:32
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vector_id: 32665
content:
"(e.g., shipping) (Blauhut et  al., 2015; Stahl et  al., 2016; Bisselink \r\net al., 2020; Cammalleri et al., 2020). Extensive water extraction will \r\naugment pressures on water reserves, impacting the ecological status \r\nof rivers and ecosystems dependent on them (Grizzetti et al., 2017). \r\nSocioeconomic conditions contributing to severe consequences are \r\nwhen more residents settle in drought-prone regions, or when the \r\nshare of agriculture in GDP declines (high confidence). For Europe, risks \r\nof water scarcity will be higher under SSP5 and SSP3 than under SSP1 \r\n(medium confidence) (Byers et al., 2018; Arnell et al., 2019; Harrison \r\net al., 2019). Transition to high risks is projected to occur below \r\n2degC GWL in SEU and be associated with more persistent droughts \r\n(Section  13.1.3), and at 2degC GWL to show a 54% increase of the \r\npopulation facing at least moderate levels of water shortage (Byers \r\net  al., 2018)"


