# document

id: 5e0bbd7bc3f3a9799a5c4e1950ff0b8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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" If coastal management permits the \r\nexpansion of mangroves inland with rising sea level, this will increase \r\ncarbon sequestration because mangroves capture and preserve more \r\ncarbon in their sediments than other terrestrial and marine forests and \r\nbiomes (high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; Alongi, 2020; Goldstein et al., \r\n2020; Lovelock and Reef, 2020; Saintilan et al., 2020)."


id: 659893efbd445220b1c25191b2031e1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Although mitigation can sharply reduce extinction risk associated with \r\nclimate change (high confidence), it cannot reduce all of the risk, nor \r\nthe risk associated with other drivers that can have a compound effect \r\nwith climate change. Thus, in addition to mitigation, the literature \r\nconsistently calls for reducing current non-climate impacts (e.g., habitat \r\nconversion, over-exploitation, hunting, fishing, wildfire, pollution, \r\nhuman-introduced invasive species) in order to increase biodiversity \r\nresilience to climate change (very high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; e.g., \r\nMantyka-Pringle et  al., 2015; Warren et  al., 2018a; Costello, 2021). \r\nThe main strategies to increase resilience rely on the combination of \r\nwell-planned protected areas, restoration of degraded areas and the \r\nsustainable use of biodiversity (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019a; Portner \r\net al., 2021) "


id: 1bdfed1a5be9422cf67bc85fabef4410
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" On land, creating corridors for species is key for facilitating \r\nspecies movements (high confidence) (McGuire et al., 2016; Heikkinen \r\net  al., 2020; Portner et  al., 2021). Habitat protection has numerous \r\nco-benefits, including potential climate mitigation through carbon \r\nstorage and sequestration, in addition to climatic regulation (Alkama \r\nand Cescatti, 2016; Mackey et  al., 2020) and pandemic prevention \r\n(Allen et al., 2017; Dobson et al., 2020, Cross-Chapter Box COVID-19 \r\nin Chapter 7)."


id: 6848764712510c05a12cb0218c4f6212
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"On land, fragmentation and habitat degradation are particularly \r\npervasive, imposing hard limits to adaptation of terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater ecosystems (Ibisch et al., 2016; Lenoir et al., 2020; Mechler \r\net al., 2020). Thus, the protection of existing natural habitats coupled \r\nwith the restoration of the surrounding non-protected habitat can \r\nincrease the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater hotspots (very high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; IPCC, \r\n2019a; Jung et  al., 2021). Additionally, strategic allocation of new \r\nprotected areas within gaps across elevational and climatic gradients \r\ncould enhance biodiversity conservation across hotspots. This would \r\nalign with Target 3 of the Convention on Biological Diversity's \r\npost-2020 draft Global Biodiversity Framework, and could include \r\nunderrepresented climate and elevation spaces as well as potential \r\nclimate refugia currently not under protection (Portner et al., 2021)"


id: 54586bab82775f87b9c2e9edb99bf96a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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" \r\nIn terrestrial ecosystems, restoration initiatives can help sustain \r\nbiodiversity, improve resilience in a changing climate, and avoid \r\nmaladaptation by selecting appropriate native species to be planted \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box  Bioeconomy in Chapter 5; (Gann et  al., 2019). \r\nIn freshwater ecosystems, conservation needs catchment level \r\nmanagement of human activities (Saunders et  al., 2002; Dudgeon \r\net al., 2006), especially as 37% of the terrestrial biodiversity hotspots \r\noverlap with freshwater (Figure  CCP1.2) and 23% border marine \r\nhotspots (Olson and Dinerstein, 2002)."


id: 4fd4605f781d9b9549c5d5f2c30803f4
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"Despite covering approximately 2% of the Earth's land area, islands harbour more than 20% of extant terrestrial species (Wetzel et al., \r\n2013). Islands have disproportionately higher rates of endemism and threat when compared to continents, with 80% of historical \r\nextinctions (since 1500 CE) having occurred on islands (high confidence) (Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Spatz et al., 2017; Duenas et al., 2021). \r\nCurrent climate change projections suggest that insular species are particularly sensitive and, even at mild warming levels, substantial \r\nlosses are expected (high confidence) (Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Dawson et al., 2017; Manes et al., 2021). \r\nGiven islands' characteristic high endemicity, current high threat levels and the fact that islands host almost half of all species currently \r\nconsidered to be at risk of extinction, especially at higher warming levels (high confidence) (Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Spatz et al"


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", 2017), \r\nfurther losses could contribute disproportionately to global biodiversity decline (medium evidence, high agreement) (Harter et al., 2015; \r\nPouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: ffda6242135e2de0689239541a52b4ef
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"The high vulnerability of terrestrial biodiversity on islands to global change can be explained by a number of limitations, characteristic of \r\nboth islands and insular species. Older, isolated islands tend to have fewer species and lower functional redundancy but a higher proportion \r\nof endemism (Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Medail, 2017). Many of these islands contain species with inherently high sensitivity to \r\nenvironmental change (narrow habitat ranges, small population sizes, low genetic diversity and poor adaptive, dispersal and defensive \r\ncapabilities) (Harter et  al., 2015). Unlike continental environments, insular species often have limited opportunities for autonomous \r\nadaptation from not having enough geographic space to shift their ranges to track suitable climatic conditions (high confidence) (Fortini \r\net al., 2015; Manes et al., 2021)"


id: f19d4af058e7aabdc4e8330a3d0edeea
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" Local extinction risks are amplified by even small losses of habitat due to global change including human\u0002induced disturbances, extreme events, sea level rise (Chapter 15; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3) and invasive species."


id: 532f13809947d405b7aa451b8626371a
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"Adaptation strategies depend on the ability to project future impacts from climate change, but this is hampered by lack of fine-scale \r\nclimate data, especially for developing small island nations. There is a paucity of robust impacts-based modelling output for terrestrial \r\nbiodiversity from these islands due to the wide, chronic unavailability of Regional Climate Model (RCM) data premised on the most \r\nrecent suite of scenarios (RCPs and especially SSPs) (medium evidence, high agreement) (Gutierrez et al., 2021, Ch.15.8; Portner et al., \r\n2021; WMO, 2021). Additionally, realistic assessments of changing climate on such small ecosystems require further RCM downscaling \r\nand verification to sub-island resolutions of <5 km"


id: 23b61c6a1edce6ad985438b243675170
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" Furthermore, widely used statistically (bias-corrected) downscaled data at sub-5 km \r\nresolutions, such as WorldClim are often unsuitable due to limited spatial and temporal resolutions of observation station data from small \r\nislands (Maharaj and New, 2013; Gutierrez et al., 2021) and higher errors associated with statistical downscaling and locations with \r\ncomplex topography and coastlines (Fick and Hijmans, 2017; Lanzante et al., 2018). Widespread unavailability of such data constrains \r\naccurate simulations of climatic variation within the small-scale mountainous and coastal regions of islands, associated with climate \r\nrefugia and high habitat heterogeneity (high confidence) (Balzan et al., 2018). This is a key element contributing to the continued delay \r\nin development of robust adaptation strategies towards not only biodiversity conservation but other important cross-sectoral issues \r\n(medium confidence) (Robinson, 2020b)."


id: 6a896386d9fe505b08833c06452d9b9e
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"Due to islands' limited size and isolation, conventional conservation measures focused on expanding protected areas, dispersal corridors \r\nand buffer zones are of limited effectiveness on islands (high confidence) (Vogiatzakis et al., 2016). Instead, multifaceted, locally driven \r\nholistic climate-smart strategies across mosaics of human-impacted, often heavily degraded and fragmented, landscapes are required. \r\nThese should ideally be long-term, flexible and sustainable solutions that incorporate social and biocultural knowledge as well as \r\neconomic co-benefits to island communities in order to 'buy time' (Betzold, 2015; Robinson, 2020a). Examples include ecosystem-based \r\napproaches such as ridge-to-reef management (Struebig et  al., 2015; Ferreira et  al., 2019, Figure  CCP1.15"


id: e7351e25d8385520414252bce72a0b5a
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"4), which incorporates \r\nconservation partnerships among lands inside and outside protected areas to increase connectivity and reduce land use impacts, while \r\nbuilding on the interconnections among terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems. Such strategies require raising awareness \r\nof biodiversity values among local communities, and cross-sectoral planning and policy at both island, regional and trans-boundary \r\nscales. These lend to private-public partnerships, increasing the potential of solutions reaching beyond protected areas boundaries and \r\naffecting socio-political change (high confidence) (Scobie, 2016)."


id: b52633f9ee1e5642e4dc1cb37f144b8c
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"Five of the SDGs are life on land, life below water, good health and well-being, food security and climate action. They \r\nunderpin and interact with many other SDGs. Healthy ecosystems play a role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, \r\nnot only protecting areas to prevent the release of carbon through land conversion activities but also restoring \r\notherwise degraded land. The United Nations has declared 2021-2030 as the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and \r\nthe Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. Restoration means actively or passively allowing habitat \r\nto return to its natural state (e.g., grassland, forest, peatland, oyster beds), including replanting native vegetation. \r\nThis can benefit the recovery of biodiversity, help remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and improve the \r\ndelivery of nature's contributions to people, such as climate regulation, water purification, pollination, and pest \r\nand disease control"


id: 739837f2f41dd8878bd337e4a35ee66
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"On land, the loss of natural forests and grasslands not only means a loss of carbon and many of their associated \r\nspecies, but exposes soils to erosion, affecting food production, and can affect the climate by altering the water \r\ncycle. Sustainable development, even within hotspots, involves active restoration of natural biodiversity, reducing \r\npoaching and trafficking of wildlife (UN SDG 15), and needs to include agriculture. This includes working to ensure \r\nbiodiverse soils and supporting healthy pollinator populations. Biodiversity includes not only wild species but also \r\ngenetic diversity, including crops and wild crop relatives. These wild relatives may contain important genes that \r\ncould help farmed crops survive better in a changed climate. At least some of these wild relatives come from \r\nareas designated as hotspots. In the ocean, sustainable development means reducing pollution, carefully managed \r\naquaculture development, increased protected areas (from the present 2"


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"5% of the ocean area), enforcement of \r\nfisheries regulations, and removal of fishery subsidies that perpetuate overfishing within Exclusive Economic Zones \r\nand on the High Seas (UN SDG 14). Generally, the use of freshwaters, rivers, lakes and groundwaters, has not been \r\nsustainable and there is a need to restore biodiversity and water quality by eliminating pollution and to better \r\nmanage abstraction, river flows, fishing and invasive species. Thus, as is the case with land and oceans, climate \r\npolicies must prioritise the restoration of freshwater biodiversity, and reduction of the current negative impacts of \r\nhuman activities."


id: 66fe202ca8f8cb6b0ff873dcbf5560ac
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"with some atolls being uninhabitable by 2050. The coastal flood risk \r\nwill rapidly increase during coming decades, possibly by 2-3 orders \r\nof magnitude by 2100 in the absence of effective adaptation and \r\nmitigation, with severe impacts on coast-dependent livelihoods and \r\nsocioecological systems (high confidence). Impacts reach far beyond \r\nC&S; for example damage to ports severely compromising global \r\nsupply chains and maritime trade, with local-global geopolitical and \r\neconomic ramifications. Global investment costs to accommodate port \r\ngrowth and adapt to SLR will amount to USD 223-768 billion before \r\n2050, presenting opportunities for C&S by the sea to build climate \r\nresilience (medium evidence, high agreement). Severely accelerated \r\nSLR resulting from rapid continental ice mass loss would bring impacts \r\nforward by decades, and adaptation would need to occur much faster \r\nand on a much greater scale than ever performed in the past (medium \r\nconfidence) {Table SMCCP2"


id: d9e17c9a4eca69c82e215ced25ac95aa
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"Much of the world's population, economic activities and critical \r\ninfrastructure are concentrated near the sea (high confidence), with \r\nnearly 11% of the global population, or 896 million people, already \r\nliving on low-lying coasts directly exposed to interacting climatic \r\nand non-climatic coastal hazards (very high confidence). Low-lying \r\ncities and settlements (C&S) by the sea are experiencing adverse \r\nclimate impacts that are superimposed on extensive and accelerating \r\nanthropogenic coastal change (very high confidence). Depending on \r\ncoastal C&S characteristics, continuing existing patterns of coastal \r\ndevelopment will worsen exposure and vulnerability (high confidence). \r\nWith accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and worsening climate-driven \r\nrisks in a warming world, prospects for achieving the Sustainable \r\nDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and charting climate resilient development \r\n(CRD) pathways are dismal (high confidence)"


id: f41de7a07ad593227f2139239b6d8da1
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" However, coastal C&S \r\nare also the source of SDG and CRD solutions, because they are centres \r\nof innovation with long histories of place-based livelihoods, many of \r\nwhich are globally connected through maritime trade and exchange \r\n(medium confidence) {CCP2.1, CCP2.2 CCP2.3, CCP2.4; SMCCP2.1; \r\nChapters 16, 18}."


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"A mix of infrastructural, nature-based, institutional and sociocultural \r\ninterventions are needed to reduce the multifaceted risk facing \r\nC&S, including vulnerability-reducing measures, avoidance (i.e., \r\ndisincentivising developments in high-risk areas), hard and soft \r\nprotection, accommodation, advance (i.e., building up and out to sea) \r\nand retreat (i.e., landward movement of people and development) (very \r\nhigh confidence). Depending on the C&S archetype, technical limits \r\nfor hard protection may be reached beyond 2100 under high-emission \r\nscenarios, with socioeconomic and governance barriers reached before \r\nthen (medium confidence). However, hard protection can set up lock-in \r\nof assets and people to risks and, in some cases, may reach limits--due \r\nto technical and financial constraints--by 2100 or sooner depending \r\non the scenario, local SLR effects and community tolerance thresholds \r\n(medium confidence)"


id: f83f3f2454c835499b5eb8543a7263da
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" Where sufficient space and adequate habitats \r\nare available, nature-based solutions can help to reduce coastal hazard \r\nrisks and provide other benefits, but biophysical limits may be reached \r\nbefore end-century (medium confidence). Accommodation is easier, \r\nfaster and cheaper to implement than hard protection, but limits may be \r\nreached by 2100, or sooner in some settings. An adaptation-pathways \r\nplanning approach demonstrates how the solution space can expand \r\nor shrink depending on the type and timing of adaptation interventions. \r\nAs SLR is relentless on human timescales, the solution space will shrink \r\nwithout adoption of an adaptation-pathways planning approach (high \r\nconfidence). Due to long implementation lead times and the need to \r\navoid maladaptive lock-in, particularly in localities facing rapid SLR \r\nand climate-compounded risk, adaptation will be more successful if \r\ntimely action is taken accounting for long-term (committed) SLR, and "


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"There is high confidence that projected climate risks will increase with \r\n(i) exposure to climate- and ocean-driven hazards manifest at the coast, \r\nsuch as heat waves, droughts, pluvial floods and impacts due to SLR, \r\ntropical cyclones, marine and land heatwaves, and ocean acidification; \r\n(ii) with increasing vulnerability driven by inequity and (iii) increasing \r\nexposure driven by urban growth in at-risk locations. Compounded \r\nand cascading climate risks, such as to coastal C&S infrastructure \r\nand supply chain networks, are also expected to increase. These \r\nrisks are acute for C&S on subsiding and/or low-lying small islands, \r\nthe Arctic, and open, estuarine and deltaic coasts (high confidence). \r\nBy 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying C&S will \r\nbe at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal \r\ngeomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action (high \r\nconfidence)"


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" Between USD 7 and 14 trillion of coastal infrastructure \r\nassets will be exposed by 2100, depending on warming levels and \r\nsocioeconomic development trajectories (medium confidence). \r\nHistorically rare extreme sea level events will occur annually by 2100, "


id: f58a25ce317156fb3b30fa0f5683e34d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Implementing integrated multi-level coastal zone governance, pre\u0002emptive planning, enabling behavioural change and alignment of \r\nfinancial resources with a wide set of values will provide C&S with \r\ngreater flexibility to open up the solution space to adapt to climate \r\nchange (high confidence). Insufficient financial resources are a key \r\nconstraint for coastal adaptation, particularly in the Global South \r\n(high confidence). Engaging the private sector in coastal adaptation \r\naction with a range of financial tools is crucial to address the coastal \r\nadaptation funding gap (high confidence). Considering the full range \r\nof economic and non-economic values will improve adaptation \r\neffectiveness and equity across C&S archetypes (high confidence). \r\nAligning adaptation in C&S with socioeconomic development, \r\ninfrastructure maintenance and COVID-19 recovery investments will \r\nprovide additional co-benefits"


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" Urgency is also driven by the need to \r\navoid lock-in to new and additional risks, for example to avoid C&S \r\nsprawl into fragile ecosystems and the most exposed coastal localities \r\n{CCP2.3; CCP2.4.2; CCP2.4.4}."


id: 85299dcd5acc14d703519e7554408b5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"C&S by the sea are thus on the frontline of action to adapt to \r\nclimate change, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and chart CRD \r\npathways for several distinct reasons. First, home to a concentrated \r\n(and growing) portion of the world's population, many coastal C&S \r\nare simultaneously exposed and vulnerable to climate-compounded \r\nhazards as well as being centres of creativity and innovation (Glavovic, \r\n2013; Crescenzi and Rodriguez-Pose, 2017; Druzhinin et  al., 2021; \r\nMariano et al., 2021; Storbjork and Hjerpe, 2021). Second, people in \r\nC&S by the sea rely on coastal ecosystems, many of which are highly \r\nsensitive to climate change impacts that compound non-climatic risks \r\nand increase the precarity of coastal livelihoods (Lu et al., 2018; He \r\nand Silliman, 2019; Thrush et al., 2021)"


id: 40fe6247075fa0a09cf5d3ff63e28c11
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" Third, coastal C&S are linked \r\ntogether through a network of ports and harbours that underpin global \r\ntrade and exchange, but which are prone to climate change impacts, \r\nespecially SLR, with significant implications for global CRD prospects \r\n(Becker et  al., 2018; Christodoulou et  al., 2019; Walsh et  al., 2019; \r\nHanson and Nicholls, 2020). For these reasons, this paper assesses \r\nresponses, enabling conditions and lessons learned for addressing \r\nclimate change in C&S by the sea."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Presently, the coastal C&S population exposure to ocean-driven \r\nimpacts from SLR and other climate-driven impacts is considerable \r\nby any measure (Buddemeier et  al., 2008; Barragan and de Andres, \r\n2015; Kay and Alder, 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2019; McMichael et al., \r\n2020; Sterzel et  al., 2020). In 2020, almost 11% of the global \r\npopulation--896  million people--resided in C&S within the low\u0002elevation coastal zone (LECZ; coastal areas below 10 m of elevation \r\nabove sea level that are hydrologically connected to the sea; Haasnoot \r\net al., 2021b), a figure which will potentially increase beyond 1 billion \r\nby 2050 (Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). Infrastructural and economic \r\nassets worth USD 6,500-11,000 billion are also exposed in the 1-in\u0002100-year floodplain for C&S of all sizes (Neumann et al., 2015; Muis \r\net al., 2016; Brown et al., 2018; Andrew et al., 2019; Kulp and Strauss, \r\n2019; Kirezci et al., 2020; Thomas et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al"


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"This assessment uses an archetype framework categorizing coastal \r\nC&S according to geomorphological characteristics, urban growth, \r\neconomic resources and inequalities (Figure  CCP2.1). Three broadly \r\ndefined coastal settlement geomorphologies are used in each row: \r\nopen coasts (a coast with sediment without river mouths) and two \r\ntransitional coastal zones with river mouths, distinguishing between \r\nestuaries (a wetland receiving sediment from both fluvial and marine \r\nsources, which is affected by tide, wave and river processes) and deltas \r\n(a wetland where fluvial sediment is supplied and deposited more \r\nrapidly than it can be redistributed by basin processes such as waves \r\nand tides; Bhattacharya, 1978; Barragan and de Andres, 2015; Kay and \r\nAlder, 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2019; Sterzel et al., 2020)"


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" Small island \r\nC&S are not singled out in this typology, because their coastlines often \r\ninclude the geomorphic features listed above, or require a different \r\nadaptation approach at larger spatial scales (Haasnoot et al., 2019). \r\nSeveral coastal C&S have a combination of two typologies, for example, \r\nMaputo-Matola, Mozambique and Mumbai, India, having both open \r\nand transitional riverine coasts, and can be classed as mixed. We \r\nalso acknowledge that several coastal C&S may have areas sited in \r\nmountainous topography that abruptly rises from the coast (e.g., along \r\nthe Mediterranean), but generally these cities have narrow, densely \r\npopulated coastlines exhibiting these three archetypal categories \r\n(Blackburn et al., 2019). Arctic settlements are addressed separately in \r\nthis cross-chapter paper."


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"Some caveats are warranted. First, locating a specific city or settlement \r\nin a particular archetype does not account for future reclassification \r\ndue to growth or shifts in development trajectories. Second, significant \r\nsocioeconomic, political and governance variations exist within many \r\nC&S, such as impoverished informal settlements alongside wealthy \r\nneighbourhoods in cities like Cape Town and Sao Paulo (also see \r\nTable SMCCP2.1). Third, this archetype framework does not explicitly \r\nreveal important interconnections between coastal C&S and their \r\nhinterlands, or between particular C&S through maritime trade or \r\nother economic, sociocultural and geopolitical interdependencies"


id: 872b8696f433fb7587ecd874562cac3d
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" \r\nNotwithstanding these caveats, these archetypes reveal differentiated \r\nphysical impacts and socioeconomic conditions, as well as the variable \r\nchallenges and opportunities arising when addressing climate change \r\nimpacts and projected risk, which, depending on coastal type, C&S \r\nsize and resource availability, help to inform efforts to adapt and chart \r\nCRD for each archetype (Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; Rocle et al., 2020; \r\nSterzel et al., 2020)."


id: bd17d651514d7175898c27da3509892a
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"Without adaptation, risks to land and people in coastal C&S from \r\npluvial and coastal flooding will very likely2\r\n increase substantially by \r\n2100 and likely beyond as a result of SLR, with significant impacts even \r\nunder RCP2.6 (Neumann et al., 2015; Muis et al., 2016; Brown et al., \r\n2018; Nicholls et al., 2018; Kulp and Strauss, 2019; Oppenheimer et al., \r\n2019; Kirezci et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., 2021b). Across these studies, \r\nby 2100, 158-510  million people and USD  7,919-12,739  billion \r\nassets under RCP4.5, and 176-880  million people and USD  8,813-\r\n14,178  billion assets under RCP8.5 will be within the 1-in-100-year \r\nfloodplain (very high confidence)"


id: 1df9cc2c97c5c6f9354526abe63467b
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" There is medium confidence that \r\naccelerated SLR will increase shoreline erosion globally, although \r\nbiophysical feedbacks will allow many coastlines to maintain relatively \r\nstable morphology if room exists to accommodate mangroves in \r\nestuarine and deltaic coasts and beach movement along open coasts \r\n(Kench et  al., 2015; McLean and Kench, 2015; Perkins et  al., 2015; \r\nRichards and Friess, 2016; CCC, 2017; Duncan et al., 2018; Luijendijk \r\net al., 2018; Mentaschi et al., 2018; Schuerch et al., 2018; Ghosh et al., \r\n2019; Masselink et  al., 2020; Toimil et  al., 2020; Vousdoukas et  al., \r\n2020b). Limiting emissions to RCP2.6 (corresponding to a mean post\u0002industrial global temperature increase of 1.5-2degC) significantly reduces \r\nfuture SLR risks (Hinkel et al., 2014; Brown et al., 2018; Nicholls et al., \r\n2018; Schinko et al., 2020). For example, by 2100, the population at risk \r\nof permanent submergence increases by 26% under RCP2.6 compared \r\nwith 53% under RCP8"


id: 143653b601cf338be40e166d0eba780d
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"Figure CCP2.2 |  Schematic of how climate and ocean drivers (from WGI Chapter 12.4.10.2 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)) and consequential physical impacts \r\non coastal cities and settlements (C&S) influence risks assessed in (Section CCP2.2; figure based on Simpson et al., 2021, and Section 1.3.1.2). These risks to \r\nC&S by the sea are shaped and mediated by adaptation interventions aimed at reducing vulnerability and exposure to coastal hazards given settlement archetypes, as well as by \r\nexpanding the space for responses to risk via the enabling conditions assessed in Section CCP2.4. Note that exposure to coastal hazards is controlled chiefly by underlying coastal \r\nC&S geomorphology and changes in coastal hazards and urban growth, including population and infrastructure growth. Vulnerability is controlled, for example, by socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment and inequality, and responses that shape the risks assessed in Section CCP2"


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"3 can be enhanced by enabling conditions, including behavioural change, conducive \r\nfinance and prudent governance."


id: f25b0a5308ca07acfad6fb139ad50ebd
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"exposure to hazards. Tangible impacts include damage, loss of life \r\nand loss of livelihoods, especially fisheries and tourism (Tessler et al., \r\n2015; Avelino et  al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; Seekamp \r\net  al., 2019; Arabadzhyan et  al., 2020); negative impacts on health \r\nand wellbeing, especially under extreme events (McIver et al., 2016; \r\nBakkensen and Mendelsohn, 2019; Bindoff et al., 2019; Pugatch, 2019); \r\nand involuntary displacement and migration (Hauer, 2017; Davis et al., \r\n2018; Neef et  al., 2018; Boas et  al., 2019; McLeman et  al., 2021)"


id: 9d73fa1a13c3049b69341f6715482057
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" \r\nIntangible impacts include psychological impacts due to extreme \r\nevents such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts and tropical cyclones; \r\nheightened inequality in coastal archetypes with systematic gender/\r\nethnicity/structural vulnerabilities; and loss of things of personal or \r\ncultural value and sense of place or connection, including an existential \r\nrisk of the demise of nations due to submergence (Allison and Bassett, \r\n2015; Barnett, 2017; Schmutter et al., 2017; Weir et al., 2017; Farbotko \r\net al., 2020; Hauer et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020; Bell et al., 2021). \r\nImpacts extend beyond the coastal zone, for example disruption to ports \r\nand supply chains, with major geopolitical and economic ramifications \r\nfrom the C&S to the global scale (very high confidence; Becker et al., "


id: 3d7f7bb53bd7237cf23bada997489fcf
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"Figure CCP2.3 shows that ocean-driven coastal risks to people, land \r\nand infrastructure in East and Southeast Asia are highest compared \r\nto other regions, even for low levels of projected SLR. However, risks \r\nfacing coastal C&S are high across the globe, especially under higher \r\nSLR projections (high confidence). Without adaptation, the population \r\nat risk of a 100-year coastal flood increases by ~20% if the global \r\nmean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to current levels; this at-risk \r\npopulation doubles at a rise of 0.75 m in mean sea level and triples \r\nat 1.4 m. Simultaneously, coastal C&S are projected to experience \r\nshoreline retreat, with coastlines having more than 100 m of retreat \r\nincreasing by ~165% if current mean sea levels rise between 0.23 \r\nand 0.53 m. Ocean-driven flooding in coastal C&S is also projected \r\nto disrupt flights by up to three orders of magnitude per year in \r\nselected coastal C&S as mean sea level increases"


id: 7fec2a36bea339d0d3c365e17b7b3fb5
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" Typically, larger \r\nrisks correspond to archetypes associated with higher inequality and \r\nhigh growth rates, especially in deltas, leading to larger vulnerability \r\nand exposure, respectively, under higher warming levels."


id: d60c0ca1501235466e898b0355164735
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"Most studies of coastal C&S focus on adaptation to a single or limited \r\nset of risks, but there is high confidence that compound and cascading \r\nrisks significantly alter C&S risk profiles (Nicholls et al., 2015; Estrada \r\net  al., 2017; Edmonds et  al., 2020; Eilander et  al., 2020; Yin et  al., \r\n2020; Ghanbari et  al., 2021). Extreme events can lead to cascading \r\ninfrastructure failures that cause damage and economic losses well \r\nbeyond the coastal zone (Haraguchi and Kim, 2016; Kishore et  al., \r\n2018; Rey et al., 2019; So et al., 2019), and have forced evacuation \r\nof C&S and small islands (Look et  al., 2019; Thomas and Benjamin, \r\n2020). These risks are exacerbated by non-climatic drivers, for example \r\ncompound and cascading impacts arising from exposure to tropical \r\ncyclones and COVID-19 that threaten population health and hamper \r\npandemic responses (Salas et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020a; Shultz et al., \r\n2020b)"


id: bb93df75e7cf39c566e3b1a79491598a
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" There is emerging evidence (low confidence) from individual \r\ncoastal C&S and regional case studies (e.g., in Europe, Australia and \r\nthe US) to illustrate the increasing influence of compound risks on "


id: 88333e152d701d7529c0566204f4e7cc
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"Protection is effective in the short- to medium-term for many coastal \r\ncities, and can be cost effective in the 21st century (Section CCP2.4.2), \r\nbut residual risk remains because protection can fail. Even under \r\nRCP8.5, technical limits to hard protection may only be reached after \r\n2100 in many regions, but socioeconomic and institutional barriers \r\nmay be reached before then (Hinkel et al., 2018). With progressive SLR, \r\nprotection eventually becomes unaffordable and impractical (Strauss \r\net al., 2021). Combining hard engineering measures with nature-based \r\nsolutions, spatial planning and early warning systems can help to \r\ncontain residual risk (Du et al., 2020). Protective works do not prevent \r\nsalinisation and higher groundwater levels (Alves et al., 2020), and can \r\nlead to loss of coastal habitat (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; \r\nAchete et al., 2017; Cooper et al., 2020)"


id: 3285dd298c83f451a32f2d64a778b1a5
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" Hard protective measures also \r\ncreate long-term path dependency as they last for decades and attract \r\nnew development, locking in impact and exposure as C&S grow, with \r\nthe expectation of ongoing protection (Chapter 3; Di Baldassarre et al., \r\n2015; Gibbs, 2016; Griggs and Patsch, 2019; Siders, 2019a)."


id: a3a8c9be4d3ac2aa418cf498ce1dbd86
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"Sediment-based interventions, for example beach nourishment, aim \r\nto limit coastal erosion and flood risk and have become a widely \r\napplied strategy, especially in open-coast archetypal C&S. This is in \r\npart because there is less impact on adjacent beaches and coastal \r\necology and also lower construction and maintenance costs compared \r\nto hard protection (high confidence; Parkinson and Ogurcak, 2018). \r\nIn addition, it is considered a flexible strategy under more rapid SLR \r\nconditions (Kabat et al., 2009; Stive et al., 2013) and can be applied \r\nin the form of a mega-nourishment strategy, wherein natural currents \r\ndistribute sand along the coast (Stive et al., 2013; de Schipper et al., \r\n2021). However, there are limits to this strategy due to environmental \r\nimpacts, costs and the availability of potential and permitted sand \r\nreserves, which may be unable to keep up with higher rates of SLR \r\n(Parkinson and Ogurcak, 2018; Haasnoot et  al., 2019; Harris et  al"


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", \r\n2021; Staudt et al., 2021). Simultaneously, other socioeconomic needs \r\n(e.g., damming rivers or for building and transport infrastructure) may \r\ncompete for sand as a limited resource (Torres et al., 2017; Bendixen \r\net al., 2019). Regional and global governance provisions (e.g., spatial \r\nreservations for sand mining, international frameworks for distribution) \r\ncould improve long-term feasibility (Torres et al., 2017; Parkinson and \r\nOgurcak, 2018; Bendixen et al., 2019; Haasnoot et al., 2019)."


id: 7ea0aebccb29dc6ac0a397965eb9d4ae
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"The effectiveness of different strategies and interventions is mediated \r\nby physical coastal features for hard adaptation measures and by \r\nthe scope and depth of soft adaptation measures, for example by \r\nthe coverage and extent of social safety nets for the urban poor \r\n(Section 6.3). Their feasibility is also shaped by socioeconomic, cultural, \r\npolitical and institutional factors, for example social acceptance \r\nof measures (Section CCP2.2, SMCCP2.2.4). Together, response \r\neffectiveness and feasibility shape the solution space for mediating \r\nrisks (Section 1.3.1.2; Figure CCP2.3; Simpson et al., 2021), which is \r\nachieved chiefly through governance interventions, for example laws \r\nand regulations (Haasnoot et al., 2020). Access to financial resources \r\nexpands the solution space, most notably for some resource-rich \r\ncoastal archetypes (Section CCP2.4.2; Table SMCCP2.1; Sections 3.6; \r\n14"


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"7), but rapid population growth and unfolding climate-driven \r\nimpacts can increase risks (Haasnoot et al., 2021a), especially for small \r\nisland and poorer C&S (high confidence; Section  15.3; Magnan and \r\nDuvat, 2020)."


id: 10d66c3c1b3c8bd2ae468fcfe7725a5c
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"Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in Chapter 3; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019; \r\nDoberstein et  al., 2019). For existing C&S, accommodation includes \r\nbiophysical and institutional responses to reduce exposure and/or \r\nvulnerability of coastal residents, human activities, ecosystems and \r\nthe built environment, enabling continued habitation of coastal C&S \r\n(Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Next to hard protection, accommodation is \r\nthe most widely used adaptation strategy across all archetypes to date \r\n(high confidence; Sayers et al., 2015; Olazabal et al., 2019; Le, 2020). \r\nMeasures include elevation or flood proofing of houses and other \r\ninfrastructure (Garschagen, 2015; Aerts et  al., 2018; Buchori et  al., \r\n2018; Jamero et al., 2018; Tamura et al., 2019), spatial planning (e.g., \r\nDuy et al., 2018), amphibious building designs (Nilubon et al., 2016), \r\nincreasing water storage and/or drainage capacity within C&S (Chan \r\net  al., 2018), early warning systems and disaster responses (Hissel \r\net al"


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"Raising land, or individual buildings, can avert flooding and be \r\naccomplished artificially or by nature-based interventions through river \r\ndiversion and control in estuarine and deltaic archetypes (Nittrouer et al., \r\n2012; Auerbach et al., 2015; Day et al., 2016; Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; \r\nHiatt et al., 2019; Cornwall, 2021). Nature-based land elevation is limited \r\nby sediment supply and can address SLR rates of up to 10 mm  yr-1 \r\n(Kleinhans et al., 2010; Kirwan et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019). It also assumes \r\nthat existing land-use patterns permit land raising (e.g., in rural or \r\nnewly developed areas; Scussolini et al., 2017). Artificial land raising can \r\nachieve significant elevations and be implemented over a large spatial \r\nscale (Esteban et al., 2015; Esteban et al., 2019)"


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" Raising land can be cost \r\nbeneficial for small areas or where lower safety levels are satisfactory, \r\nbut protection is usually more economical for larger areas, although both \r\nstrategies are often combined (Lendering et al., 2020)."


id: a046f67144b493f27d0d8f88d693410d
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"Within limits, coastal ecosystems can respond to RSL through sediment \r\naccretion and lateral inland movement (Kirwan et al., 2016; Schuerch \r\net  al., 2018). Nature-based measures have the greatest potential in \r\ncoastal deltas and estuaries, where human populations are exposed, \r\nbut large ecosystems, like mangroves and marshes, can be conserved \r\nand restored (Menendez et al., 2020; Van Coppenolle and Temmerman, \r\n2020). Their feasibility depends on physical, ecological, institutional \r\nand socioeconomic conditions that are typically locality dependent \r\n(Temmerman and Kirwan, 2015; Arkema et  al., 2017); space may \r\nnot be available in certain places (e.g., intensive urbanization on \r\nthe shoreline), or these measures may conflict with other human \r\ndemands for scarce land (Tian et al., 2016). Successful nature-based \r\nmeasures require site-specific knowledge and science-based design, \r\npilot monitoring and adaptive upscaling (Evans et al., 2017; Nesshover \r\net al"


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", 2017), as well as a more rigorous understanding of long-term \r\nperformance, maintenance and costs (Kumar et al., 2021)."


id: 87398af4cba8b14c931951c8c84d9e6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Accommodation measures can be very effective for current conditions \r\nand small changes in SLR (Laurice Jamero et  al., 2017; Scussolini \r\net al., 2017; Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Du et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., \r\n2021a), and buy time to prepare for more significant changes in sea \r\nlevel and other climate-compounded coastal hazards. However, limits \r\nto this strategy occur comparatively soon in some locations, possibly \r\nrequiring protection in the medium term and retreat in the long run and \r\nbeyond 2100, particularly in scenarios of dramatic SLR (Oppenheimer \r\net al., 2019). For the foreseeable future, accommodation can play an \r\nimportant role in combination with protective measures to form hybrid \r\ninterventions, with higher effectiveness than either approach in isolation \r\n(Du et al., 2020)"


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" Accommodation can play an increasingly important \r\nrole where hard protection is neither technically nor financially viable, \r\nbut detailed studies about expected trends of accommodation are \r\nlacking (Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: 6b41391a8fbf717672857a0c6e86e144
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"Many megacities plan to continue a protection strategy (Table SMCCP2.1). \r\nThis becomes increasingly costly, institutionally challenging and requires \r\nspace, possibly facilitated through local relocation. There is high agree\u0002ment that many C&S are locked-in to a self-reinforcing pathway: coastal \r\ndefences have a long lifetime and attract people and assets that require \r\nfurther protection (Gralepois et  al., 2016; Bubeck et  al., 2017; Welch \r\net al., 2017; Di Baldassarre et al., 2018; Jongman, 2018). Transitioning \r\nto alternative pathways may involve major transfer and sunk costs (e.g., \r\nGralepois et al., 2016), but these may prove to be less costly in the long \r\nterm. Because of considerable inertia in the built form of cities, such \r\ntransitions have a greater chance of success and alignment with societal \r\ngoals if embedded early into C&S planning and development process\u0002es that enable transformational change and CRD (Sections 6.4.8; 11.7; \r\n13.11; Box 18.1; Urge-Vorsatz et al"


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"Retreat can effectively reduce exposure of urban residents to coastal \r\nhazards and provide opportunity for re-establishment of ecosystem \r\nservices (very high confidence; Song et  al., 2018; Carey, 2020; \r\nHindsley and Yoskowitz, 2020; Lincke et al., 2020; Lincke and Hinkel, \r\n2021). But there is high confidence that it can sever cultural ties to \r\nthe coast (Reimann et al., 2018) and lead to negative and inequitable \r\nsocioeconomic effects for resettled communities if not planned and \r\nimplemented in ways that are inclusive and just and address cultural, \r\nplace-attachment and livelihood considerations (Ajibade, 2019; Adger \r\net al., 2020; Carey, 2020; Jain et al., 2021; Johnson et al., 2021), as well \r\nas the rights and practices of Indigenous People (Nakashima et  al., \r\n2018; Ristroph, 2019; Mohamed Shaffril et al., 2020)"


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" If planned well \r\nahead and aligned with social goals, pathways to managed retreat can \r\nachieve positive outcomes and provide opportunities for transformation \r\nof coastal C&S (Haasnoot et al., 2021a; Mach and Siders, 2021). There \r\nis medium confidence that the availability of suitable and affordable \r\nland as well as appropriate financing is a major bottleneck for planned \r\nrelocation (Alexander et al., 2012; Ong et al., 2016; Hino et al., 2017; \r\nFisher and Goodliffe, 2019; Hanna et al., 2019; Buser, 2020; Doberstein \r\net  al., 2020), particularly in very dense mega-urban areas (Ajibade, \r\n2019) and crowded small islands (Neise and Revilla Diez, 2019; Weber \r\net al., 2019; Kool et al., 2020; Lincke et al., 2020)."


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"Locations in the Global South have limited public budgets allocated to \r\ncoastal adaptation and may rely on international donor aid (Donner \r\net  al., 2016; Araos et  al., 2017). Such aid is often inconsistent and \r\nshort term, which limits long-term maintenance of the knowledge, \r\nequipment and infrastructure needed to sustain adaptation measures \r\nbeyond initial funding periods (Weiler et al., 2018; Thomas et al., 2020), \r\nwith resultant negative consequences in places as different as Kiribati \r\n(Donner and Webber, 2014) and Bangladesh (Hinkel et  al., 2018). \r\nDonor-funded adaptation programs aimed at promoting behavioural \r\nchange, for example through coastal planning or new decision-making \r\nsystems, require enduring training and institutional capacity, which is \r\ndifficult to upkeep after aid is depleted. Donor funding is often project \r\nbased and there are few avenues available to fund the additional \r\npermanent and long-term staff needed to bolster climate change \r\ninstitutions"


id: 2f64f776c01968d5c5901d352b01d89b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 4875
content:
" Without funding to support additional staff, existing \r\ninstitutions often lack the human capacity and resources needed for \r\ncoastal adaptation (Ziervogel and Parnell, 2014)."


id: 40f53adc96deea160c0e39f36e80605a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 7608
content:
"While coastal adaptation has largely been viewed as the responsibility \r\nof governments, private finance is increasingly recognised as necessary \r\nto help close the coastal adaptation funding gap (Ware and Banhalmi\u0002Zakar, 2020). Financial arrangements for coastal adaptation measures \r\nthat align public-actor and private-investor interests are suitable for a \r\nrange of budgets, from USD 10,000 to 100 million (Bisaro and Hinkel, \r\n2018). Private equity instruments that involve real estate development \r\ncompanies have already been successfully implemented and are most \r\neffective in urban areas with high-value real estate development \r\n(Chiang and Ling, 2017). Public-private partnership equity instruments \r\nthat engage construction and real estate developers have been \r\nsuccessful for small- to medium-scale infrastructural projects"


id: 5d6d250e75831693499cf98921956bf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 12225
content:
" While \r\npublic-private partnership bonds and public bonds have the potential \r\nto align public actors and private investors, such instruments require \r\nde-risking of coastal adaptation through enabling economic policy \r\ninstruments, such as concessional loans (Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018)."


id: c4f2f94ef1c04eb0a6084fe4f5c140b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 28560
content:
"An array of climatic and non-climatic perils (Le Cozannet et al., 2017) \r\npresent coastal communities and their governing authorities with \r\nimmense governance and institutional challenges that will become \r\nprogressively more difficult as sea level rises (high confidence; \r\nWallace, 2017; Leal Filho et  al., 2018; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). \r\nYet a study of public provisions for coastal adaptation in 136 of the \r\nlargest coastal port-urban agglomerations across 68 countries found \r\nno policy implementation in 50% of the cases; in 85% of cases, \r\nadaptation actions are not framed by current impacts or future risks, \r\nand formal efforts are recent and concentrated in more developed \r\nsettings (Olazabal et al., 2019; Olazabal and Ruiz De Gopegui, 2021), \r\nthus underscoring a persistent coastal adaptation gap. Translating \r\nthese challenges into enabling governance conditions is difficult, \r\nbut instructive lessons are being learned and are summarised (from \r\nTable SMCCP2"


id: 4ed502a3465e4a49be9bbf4c67d468cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
"Given the high costs of coastal adaptation, benefit-to-cost ratios (BCR) \r\nare often used to determine the value of investing in adaptation. \r\nBCR are high for urbanised coastal areas with high concentrations \r\nof assets (13% of the world's coastline), covering 90% of the global \r\ncoastal floodplain population and 96% of assets in the global coastal \r\nfloodplain (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018). A global assessment shows \r\na BCR for investing in flood protection of up to ~120 (Tiggeloven et al., \r\n2020). For Europe, at least 83% of flood damages could be avoided by \r\nelevating dikes along ~23-32% of Europe's coastline and BCR vary \r\nfrom 8.3 to 14.9, with higher ratios for higher concentration pathways \r\n(Section 13.2; Vousdoukas et al., 2020a). Globally, 40% of damages \r\ncan be reduced with levees of 1 m and costs lower than avoided \r\ndamage (Tamura et  al., 2019)"


id: cf1a41bbf3ce2a1a2827e5f2d6ca4fb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
" For a mix of expensive storm surge \r\nbarriers, nature-based solutions and flood-proofing measures for New \r\nYork City, Aerts et al. (2014) found BCRs <1 for the current situation, \r\nbut >2 for a SLR scenario of +1 m."


id: cc5c50045b46d008ca2a7b41d2b862d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 29691
content:
"To address the myriad governance challenges attributed to low \r\nawareness, low skills, scalar mismatches, and high socioeconomic \r\ninequality and coastal vulnerability, post-AR5 research highlights \r\nenablers of more innovative approaches to bridge capacity, policy and \r\nfinancial deficits (Reiblich et al., 2019), and facilitate more proactive \r\nimplementation of coastal adaptation actions (Table  SMCCP2.2; Fu, \r\n2020). A survey of NGOs, state and local government across Alaska, \r\nFlorida and Maryland in the USA found that perceived risk, uncertainty \r\nand trust in support for climate adaptation varied across two stages of \r\nadaptation, that is between support for the development of plans and \r\nwillingness to allocate human and financial resources to implement \r\nplans (Kettle and Dow, 2016). To bridge this gap, Cinner et al"


id: b8c5c0f5402874129e4c9a1f204e5597
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 26591
content:
" (2018) \r\nsuggest the need to build capacity across five domains: the assets \r\nthat people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change \r\nstrategies and interventions; the ability to organise and act collectively; \r\nlearning to recognise and respond to change (especially as important \r\nthresholds are approached); and the agency to determine whether to \r\nchange or not, and to then take prudent action."


id: ffd5e013ab6830b12750a870f272de2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
"Many C&S, especially in the Global South, already face high exposure \r\nto coastal risks and development constraints associated with poverty \r\nand socioeconomic inequality, lack of transparent resource allocation \r\nmechanisms and low political will (high confidence; Di Giulio et al., \r\n2019; Nagy et  al., 2019; Pasquini, 2020; Lehmann et  al., 2021).\r\nResearch from across South America notes inadequate regulatory \r\nframeworks, missing data and information, widespread coastal \r\necosystem degradation and complex interactions between natural \r\ndisasters and civil conflict (Villamizar et al., 2017; Nagy et al., 2019)"


id: 117951cbbf6515755254caf67f880616
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
" \r\nCoastal climate risks in the Global South are often compounded by \r\nongoing land-use management conflicts and other pressures including \r\ninformal land uses, unregulated and/or inadequate infrastructure/\r\nbuilding development, public health priorities such as combating \r\nDengue fever, inadequate income diversification, low education \r\nlevels and political marginalization of communities historically not \r\nrepresented in the urban development process (Barbi and Ferreira, \r\n2014; Salik et al., 2015; Cabral et al., 2017; Goh, 2019). There are also \r\nentrenched socioeconomic inequalities leading to the maldistribution "


id: 693c9e51eb41d40c8085afd91841294f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
"high confidence; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Magnan et al., \r\n2019; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). Unlocking potential enablers for \r\nlocally appropriate and effective adaptation is difficult because many \r\ndrivers and root causes of coastal risk are historically and institutionally \r\nembedded (high confidence; Thomas et al., 2019). Charting credible, \r\nsalient and legitimate adaptation pathways is consequently a struggle \r\nin reconciling divergent worldviews, values and interests (Sovacool, \r\n2018; Mendenhall et al., 2020; Bowden et al., 2021a; Bowden et al., \r\n2021b). Unlocking the productive potential of conflict is foundational \r\nfor transitioning towards pathways that foster CRD (high confidence; \r\nAbrahams and Carr, 2017; Harris et al., 2018; Sharifi, 2020)"


id: 8a5d6ab3ff68541e7b0aff73f36cc3d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 19306
content:
" But this \r\ncan be especially challenging for low-lying coastal C&S characterised \r\nby degraded coastal ecosystems susceptible to climate change impacts \r\nas well as pronounced inequity and governance constraints (high \r\nconfidence; Esteban et al., 2017; Jones et al., 2020)."


id: f73c97692bb8a7198c7eeece9ba4313
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36416
content:
"The law is key to governing climate risks in C&S, including regulating \r\nexposure to coastal hazards; facilitating accountable decision-making; \r\nfunding arrangements, liabilities and resolving disputes; and also for \r\nsecuring human rights (high confidence; Setzer and Vanhala, 2019; \r\nAverill, 2020). However, it has limits and can be both an adaptation \r\nenabler and barrier (Green et  al., 2015; Cosens et  al., 2017; Craig \r\net al., 2017; DeCaro et al., 2017). Contemporary legal practice has not \r\nenabled effective adaptation in part because SLR affects compensable \r\nproperty rights that are secured by the law, and which generally trump \r\nconcerns about public safety, resilience and sustainability (Reiblich \r\net  al., 2019). Private property rights can be used as both a sword \r\nand a shield to privilege dominant interests by undermining land \r\nuse policies, plans and implementation efforts intended to promote \r\nintegrated coastal management and risk reduction (O'Donnell et al"


id: acdc307dfb873400991ca11fa027efef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 24743
content:
", \r\n2019; Reiblich et al., 2019). Climate change litigation has proliferated \r\nover the past decade (Setzer and Vanhala, 2019), addressing, among \r\nother things, failures to prepare for or adapt to climate change, and to \r\nsecure human rights (Peel and Osofsky, 2018). Reflexive and adaptive \r\nlaw that accounts for the distinctive features of coastal hazard risk \r\nand associated governance imperatives builds coastal C&S adaptive \r\ncapacity and resilience (high confidence; Garmestani and Benson, \r\n2013; Cosens et  al., 2017; DeCaro et  al., 2017). Procedural justice, \r\ndue process and use of substantive standards instead of rules provide \r\nlegal stability and enable adaptation (Craig et  al., 2017). Coastal \r\nadaptation efforts are ultimately implemented through C&S actions \r\nthat are enabled or constrained by prevailing legislative, executive \r\nand judicial provisions and practices, which differ significantly across \r\njurisdictions (He, 2018)"


id: c8460fcda5e1b3dc8cfbea160f61703
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29085
content:
" In practice, the 'coastal lawscape' is made up \r\nof interconnected cultural normative, political and legal systems that \r\nneed to be understood holistically to enable coastal adaptation in C&S \r\n(O'Donnell, 2021)."


id: 46e9ecfadba21a2ec0893a4435bb9813
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8540
content:
"This cross-chapter paper shows that a range of adaptation solutions, \r\nhard and soft protection, nature-based measures, accommodate, \r\nadvance, retreat and behavioural change will need to be implemented \r\nas an integrated and sequenced portfolio of responses if coastal C&S \r\nare to contain the adverse risks of climate change (high confidence). \r\nThe effectiveness and feasibility of any intervention--at any given \r\nmoment--to reduce a particular climate-compounded coastal \r\nhazard risk or combination of risks depend upon the settlement \r\narchetype, including its geomorphological, cultural, economic, \r\ntechnical, institutional and political features, as well as on its historical \r\ndevelopment trajectory"


id: ab970b38fc23029f0de69094c0c3efcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24517
content:
" Coastal C&S will benefit from developing \r\nflexible adaptation pathways--sequences of adaptation strategies \r\nand intervention options--to navigate a dynamic solution space that \r\nchanges in response to climate and other drivers of change, and is \r\nalso shaped by human development choices and socioeconomic, \r\ntechnological and institutional change."


id: 1550cc960beb4e100f3cafc3cbbeced7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 874
content:
"Coastal cities and settlements (C&S) are on the frontline of the climate change challenge. They are the interface of three interconnected \r\nrealities. First, they are critical nodes of global trade, economic activity and coast-dependent livelihoods, all of which are highly and increasingly \r\nexposed to climate- and ocean-driven hazards (FAQ CCP2.1). Second, coastal C&S are also sites where some of the most pressing development \r\nchallenges are at play (e.g., trade-offs between expanding critical built infrastructure while protecting coastal ecosystems, high economic \r\ngrowth coupled with high inequality in some coastal megacities). Third, coastal C&S are also centres of innovation and creativity, thus presenting \r\na tremendous opportunity for climate action through a range of infrastructural, nature-based, institutional and behavioural solutions (FAQ \r\nCCP2.2)"


id: c7b737135628f1f0513771663ca28708
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29002
content:
" Given these three realities of high climate change risks, rapid but contested and unequal development trajectories, and high potential \r\nfor innovative climate action, C&S are key to charting pathways for climate resilient development (CRD)."


id: dc9f1c108fb8f1e78e6d081edd260a1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32214
content:
"Three key levers can enable pathways that are climate resilient and meet goals of inclusive, sustainable development. \r\nOne key enabler involves flexible, proactive, and transparent governance systems, built on a bedrock of accountable \r\nlocal leadership, evidence-based decision-making--even under uncertainty--and inclusive institutions that consider \r\ndifferent stakeholder voices and knowledge systems. Another key enabler is acknowledging the sociocultural and \r\npsychological barriers to climate action and incentivising people to change to lifestyles and behaviours that are \r\npro-climate and aligned with community-oriented values and norms. In practice, coastal C&S are experimenting \r\nwith different strategies to change practices and behaviours, such as using subsidies and zoning policies, tax rebates \r\nand public awareness campaigns to promote individual and collective action"


id: b259cef2a9f21e5e377e9b01453fe16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25574
content:
" Finally, enabling CRD needs dedicated \r\nshort- and long-term financing to reorient current trajectories of unsustainable and unequal development towards \r\nclimate mitigation and adaptation action that reduces current and predicted losses and damages, especially in \r\nhighly vulnerable coasts such as the small island states, the Arctic and low-lying C&S. Currently, adaptation finance \r\nis concentrated in coastal megacities and tends to be deployed for risk-proofing high-value waterfront properties \r\nor key infrastructures. Addressing these financial imbalances (globally, regionally and sub-nationally) remains a \r\ncritical barrier to inclusive climate resilient coastal development."


id: 40fde9c0d54cd63c737dca6d5f67c040
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7617
content:
"The impacts of climate change have affected the ecosystem \r\nservices that humans can harness from drylands, with largely \r\nnegative implications for livelihoods, human health and well\u0002being, particularly in deserts and semiarid areas with lower \r\nadaptive capacities (high confidence). Ecosystem degradation \r\n(Section  16.5.2.3.2) and desertification threaten the abilities of \r\nboth natural and human systems to adapt to climate change (high \r\nconfidence). Changes in desert and semiarid ecosystem services \r\nmost acutely affect people who are directly dependent on natural \r\nresources for their livelihoods and survival. These groups also often \r\nhave lower capacities to adapt, particularly given structural limitations \r\nof some drylands where healthcare, sanitation, infrastructure and \r\nefficient markets are lacking, reinforcing existing inequalities (high \r\nconfidence)"


id: 587c2c3cc7916f2459ea8b92dbb702d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" In rural drylands in tropical and Mediterranean areas, \r\nhuman populations are steadily expanding with mixed implications \r\nfor ecosystem services under climate change, while rapid urbanisation \r\nin new and existing dryland megacities puts additional pressure on \r\nwater ecosystem services (high confidence). Impacts resulting from \r\nconsumption of dryland ecosystem services elsewhere, alongside other \r\nteleconnections associated with health, trade, conflict and migration, \r\nmean that dryland adaptive capacities have far reaching implications \r\nfor other locations, while other locations affect dryland adaptation \r\noptions. {3.1.1, 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.4}."


id: 4d7e13c334dce7555508c98e815f47fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9625
content:
"Where are we now: Observed impacts and adaptation responses\r\nDeserts and semiarid areas have already been affected by \r\nclimate change, with some areas experiencing increases in \r\naridity. Mixed trends of decreases and increases in vegetation \r\nproductivity have been observed, depending on the time period, \r\ngeographic region, detection methods used and vegetation type \r\nunder consideration (high confidence1\r\n). These changes have \r\nhad varying and location-specific impacts on biodiversity, and \r\nhave altered ecosystem carbon balance, water availability and \r\nthe provision of ecosystem services (high confidence). There is \r\nno evidence, however, of a global trend in dryland expansion \r\nbased on analyses of vegetation patterns, precipitation and soil \r\nmoisture, with overall, more greening than drying in drylands \r\nsince the 1980s (medium confidence). Deserts and semiarid areas \r\nhost unique biodiversity, rich cultural heritage and provide globally \r\nvaluable ecosystem services"


id: 634503b8e39c1344051ac123b12d7e5e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13185
content:
" They are also highly vulnerable to climate \r\nchange. The vitality of natural ecosystems in arid and semiarid regions \r\ngreatly depends on water availability, as they are highly sensitive to \r\nchanges in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well \r\nas to land management practices. Multiple lines of evidence from \r\n1920-2015 indicate that surface warming of 1.2deg\r\nC-1.3degC over global \r\ndrylands (Section 1.1.1) exceeded the 0.8deg\r\nC-1.0degC warming over humid \r\nlands. From 1982 to 2015, unsustainable land use and climate change \r\ncombined caused desertification of 6% of the global dryland area, \r\nwhile 41% showed significant increases in vegetation productivity \r\n(greening) and 53% of the area had no notable change, although \r\ngreening rates are slowing or declining in some locations. Greening \r\nmay cause biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation in \r\nrelation to livelihood systems"


id: 7054abd891712b206e141446fbb5753e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15290
content:
" Observed trends in deserts and semiarid \r\nareas have led to varying impacts on flora, fauna, soil, nutrient cycling, \r\nthe carbon cycle and water resources. Ecological changes in dryland \r\necosystems detected and attributed primarily to climate change \r\ninclude tree mortality and losses of mesic tree species at specific sites \r\nin the African Sahel, particularly during the droughts of the 1970s \r\nand 1980s, and in North Africa from 1970 to 2007; and losses of bird \r\nspecies in the Mojave Desert of North America from 1908 to 2016. In \r\ncontrast, growth in herbaceous vegetation production has increased "


id: 6ae52bb8253a2d117897600d97a6dffe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14434
content:
"Some drylands will expand by 2100, while others will shrink \r\n(high confidence). Climate change affects drylands through \r\nincreased temperatures and more irregular rainfall, with \r\nimportant differences between areas with different rainfall \r\ndistributions linked to the dominant climate systems in each \r\nlocation. Projections are nevertheless uncertain and not well \r\nsupported by observed trends, while different methodological \r\napproaches and indices exhibit different strengths and \r\nweaknesses (medium confidence). A fundamental methodological \r\nchallenge is how to attribute projected impacts to climate change \r\nwhen background climate variability in drylands is so high. Some \r\nprojections show aridity (as measured by the Aridity Index, AI) to \r\nexpand substantially on all continents, except Antarctica. Expansion \r\nof arid regions is probable in southwest North America, the northern \r\nfringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia"


id: c79f607058c93eb5fb80abc8f185a17d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
" The main areas of \r\nsemiarid expansion are likely2\r\n to occur on the north side of the \r\nMediterranean, southern Africa and North and South America. India, "


id: 4803bb923293090a6510886b202a826c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"parts of northern China, eastern equatorial Africa and the southern \r\nSaharan regions are projected to have shrinking drylands. Under \r\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, aridity zones could \r\nexpand by one-quarter of the 1990 area by 2100, increasing to over \r\nhalf the global terrestrial area. Lower greenhouse gas emissions, \r\nunder RCP4.5, could limit expansion to one-tenth of the 1990 area by \r\n2100. Nevertheless, the utility of the AI in delineating dryland biomes \r\nis limited under an increasing CO2 environment (medium confidence) \r\nand how well the index fits observed trends has been questioned \r\nin recent research. The impacts of climate change on sand and dust \r\nstorm activity are projected to be substantial, however, there is large \r\nregional variability in terms of rainfall seasonality, land management \r\npractices and differences in rates of change and the scales at which \r\nthe projections are undertaken"


id: 9f406b6156f93d4101eae42bc90d3101
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22593
content:
" The characteristics and speed of \r\nhuman responses and adaptations also affect future risks and impacts \r\n(high confidence). Increased temperature and rainfall variability will \r\nsignificantly change the interannual variability in the global carbon \r\ncycle, which is strongly influenced by the world's drylands and the \r\nways they are managed (medium confidence). Increased variability of \r\nprecipitation would generally contribute to increased vulnerability for \r\npeople in drylands, intensifying the challenges that people living in \r\ndeserts and semiarid areas will face for their sustainable development \r\n(medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2}"


id: dbaab19b513949c3349f8ade54348e76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32081
content:
"Drivers of desert expansion and greening are numerous, are \r\nattributed to environmental and human processes and differ \r\nacross dryland types, yet a suite of adaptations can help to \r\naddress human drivers of change, support resilience and build \r\nthe adaptive capacity of dryland people (medium confidence).\r\nDeserts and semiarid areas have a rich cultural heritage, and Indigenous \r\nknowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) which enrich and influence \r\nsustainability and land use globally. Growing research evidence and \r\nexperience highlight the necessary features of an enabling environment \r\nfor dryland adaptation (Section 8.5.2). Key enablers include supportive \r\npolicies, institutions and governance approaches that strengthen the \r\nadaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists and other dryland \r\nresource users (high confidence), addressing drivers (proximate and \r\nunderlying) as well as symptoms of desertification"


id: 69c39e0c02730ba4b2cd21e52121ebe
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" For instance, the \r\nskills and capacities held by the mobile and adaptive approach of \r\npastoralists may provide lessons for society at large in adapting to \r\nclimate change and dealing with increased uncertainty. Such a policy \r\nwould stand in contrast to previous attempts at settling pastoralists. \r\nThere is a persistent gap in terms of scaling-up already known good \r\npractices, combining nature-based, land-based and ecosystem\u0002based approaches that facilitate sustainable land management, with \r\ncontextually appropriate and responsible governance systems (e.g., \r\nincluding those supporting communal land tenure arrangements \r\nand IKLK; medium confidence). Land-based adaptations can help \r\nmanage dryland changes, including sand and dust storms and \r\ndesertification (high confidence), while technological options linked \r\nto water management draw from both traditional practices and \r\nnew innovations. Adequate financing and investment is required to "


id: fd8f0f7a7c5eee34f889ecec0414b78b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Deserts and semiarid areas are in 'drylands', which comprise hyper\u0002arid, arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas (Figure CCP3.1). Drylands \r\ncover about 45-47% of the global land area (Pravalie, 2016; Koutroulis, \r\n2019) and are home to about 3  billion people residing primarily in \r\nsemiarid and dry sub-humid areas (van der Esch et al., 2017). Drylands \r\nhost unique, rich biodiversity (Maestre et  al., 2015) and provide \r\nimportant ecosystem services (Bidak et  al., 2015; Lu et  al., 2018), \r\nwhile dryland people have a rich cultural and historical heritage. Rural \r\nhuman populations are growing in some Mediterranean and tropical \r\ndrylands, while many are rapidly urbanising (Guengant Jean-Pierre, \r\n2003; Tabutin and Schoumaker, 2004; Denis and Moriconi-Ebrard, \r\n2009), with varying impacts on ecosystem services and adaptive \r\ncapacities. In recent decades, 6% of global megacities have been \r\nestablished in arid areas and 2% in hyper-arid desert areas (Cherlet \r\net  al"


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", 2018), with many of these areas suffering from severe water \r\nsecurity challenges (Stringer et al., 2021). Dryland inhabitants in many \r\ndeveloping countries are also experiencing poverty (Section 16.1.4.3), \r\nhunger, poor health, land degradation, and economic and political \r\nmarginalisation (Mbow et  al., 2019; Mirzabaev et  al., 2019), which \r\nsometimes limits their access to common pool resources. These \r\nchallenges, together with a weak enabling environment, threaten \r\nopportunities to adapt to climate change."


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"Chapter 3 of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land \r\n(SRCCL) focused on desertification (Mirzabaev et al., 2019), but links \r\nbetween climate change and deserts, desertification and semiarid \r\nareas have not been extensively considered in recent IPCC assessment \r\ncycles. Working Group II Assessment Report 5 noted that desertification \r\ncontributes to atmospheric dust production, identifying desertification \r\nas needing consideration within climate change mitigation and \r\nadaptation governance and decision making (Boucher et  al., 2013; \r\nMyhre et al., 2013). This cross-chapter paper focuses on environmental \r\nand human aspects, finding that climate change impacts will intensify \r\nthe challenges faced by dryland populations in advancing sustainable \r\ndevelopment"


id: e6d61068257733910ca3931e1d39ab34
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" However, viable options exist for adapting to climate \r\nchange, reducing desertification and supporting progress towards \r\nthe Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly by combining \r\nmodern science, IKLK, and livelihood and land management strategies \r\nthat enable land-based adaptation, mitigation and nature-based \r\nsolutions (Section 16.3.2.3)."


id: bd118653053f48a42a5ad14ab3d0071f
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"The terms 'desert' and 'desertification' are subject to various \r\ninterpretations due to the diverse components, processes and states \r\nthey denote. Recognising 'land degradation' as a contested and \r\nperceptual term (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Behnke and Mortimore, \r\n2016; Robbins, 2020), this cross-chapter paper (CCP), defines land \r\ndegradation as 'a negative trend in land condition, caused by direct \r\nor indirect human-induced processes including climate change, \r\nexpressed as long-term reduction or loss of at least one of the \r\nfollowing: biological productivity, ecological integrity or value to \r\nhumans' (Olsson et al., 2019). Desertification is land degradation in \r\narid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas (UNCCD, 1994). Following the \r\nabove definitions, desertification is more common in arid and semiarid \r\nclimates than in hyper-arid climates"


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" When desertification does occur \r\nin arid and hyper-arid ecosystems it is often in oases and irrigated \r\ncultivated lands (Ezcurra, 2006; Dilshat et al., 2015). Hyper-arid areas, \r\nexcept wetlands such as oases, wadis and riverbanks, are excluded \r\nin the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) \r\ndefinition of desertification used here, yet many of the world's deserts \r\nare in hyper-arid areas. Hyper-arid areas are therefore included when \r\ndiscussing deserts but not when discussing desertification. Deserts \r\nare not the end point in a desertification process (Ezcurra, 2006). \r\nThere is robust evidence of desertification in deserts, mostly driven by \r\nhuman activities and climate variability, expressed as loss of biological \r\nproductivity, ecological integrity or value to humans to below their \r\nnatural levels (Moridnejad et al., 2015)."


id: 1e85635715d2746474380cdf7f2c3538
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"Figure CCP3.1 |  Aridity zone extent and observed changes in dryland areas as defined by the Aridity Index (AI). Aridity zones, according to UNESCO (1979) and \r\nUNEP (1992) classifications, defined by the AI, consider the ratio of average annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration: (i) dry sub-humid (0.5 <= AI < 0.65), (ii) semiarid \r\n(0.2 <= AI < 0.5), (iii) arid (0.05 <= AI < 0.2) and (iv) hyper-arid (AI <0.05). Drylands include land with AI <0.65, humid lands are those with AI >0.65 (UNEP, 1992). Deserts represent \r\na major part of the hyper-arid and arid zones. The aridity zones are shown for climate in the period 1988-2017 and changes in dryland area (combined area of four aridity zones) \r\nare shown between the periods 1901-1930 and 1988-2017, based on climate time series at 50 km spatial resolution (Harris et al., 2020). The AI has various limitations in assessing \r\ndryland expansion and different indices highlight different areas and different changes"


id: f878509c68c5f9966afb94423389ad34
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" This is known as the aridity paradox (Greve et al., 2019). See SRCCL Section 3.2.1 (Mirzabaev \r\net al., 2019) for an in-depth analysis of limitations, and Stringer et al. (2021) for a summary of different measures and indices used in the literature."


id: 4745713f7f9cd048ae0e01ac463574f4
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"and the role of climate change and non-climatic factors in causing \r\nthese changes).\r\nIncreases in shrub cover in arid deserts and shrublands have been \r\nrecorded in the North American drylands (Caracciolo et  al., 2016; \r\nArcher et al., 2017; Chambers et al., 2019), the Namib desert (Rohde \r\net al., 2019), the Karoo (Ward et al., 2014; Masubelele et al., 2015b), \r\nnorth and central Mexico (Perez-Sanchez et al., 2011; Baez et al., 2013; \r\nCastillon et al., 2015; Sosa et al., 2019), large parts of the West African \r\nSahel with some local exceptions (Brandt et al., 2016) and Central Asia \r\n(Jia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2015; Deng et al., 2016; Jiao et al., 2016; Wang \r\net al., 2016). Increasing woodiness in the Namib is consistent with an \r\nincrease in rainfall extremes and westward expansion of convective \r\nrainfall (Haensler et al., 2010; Rohde et al., 2019). Increasing rainfall \r\nand rising CO2 concentrations (which improves water use efficiency) \r\nbenefits some shrubs (Polley et al"


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", 1997; Morgan et al., 2004; Donohue \r\net al., 2013). Together with changes in land use (Hoffman et al., 2018), \r\nimproved land management (Reij et al., 2005) and improved irrigation \r\n(He et al., 2019), this contributes to woody cover increases. Extensive \r\nwoody encroachment has been recorded in savannas (measured \r\nbetween 1920-2015, over the past century) in Africa (2.4% woody \r\ncover increase per decade), Australia (1% increase per decade), and \r\nSouth America (8% increase per decade) (O'Connor et al., 2014; Stevens \r\net  al., 2016; Skowno et  al., 2017; Venter et  al., 2018; Zhang et  al., \r\n2019). Following drought in the Sahel (1968-1973 and 1982-1984), \r\na rainfall increase since the mid-1990s has been linked to increases of \r\nwoody cover between 1992-2011/2012 (Brandt et al., 2016; Brandt \r\net  al., 2017; Brandt et  al., 2019). See SRCCL Section  3.2.1"


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"1 for an \r\nevaluation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and \r\nremote sensing approaches used in these studies. Tree regeneration by \r\nfarmers has also increased woody cover, particularly next to villages \r\n(high confidence) (Reij et  al., 2005; Reij and Garrity, 2016; Brandt \r\net al., 2018). Otherwise, savanna encroachment has been attributed \r\nto combinations of increased rainfall (Venter et al., 2018; Zhang et al., \r\n2019), warming (Venter et al., 2018) and CO2 fertilization (Kgope et al., \r\n2010; Bond and Midgley, 2012; Buitenwerf et al., 2012; Stevens et al., \r\n2016; Quirk et al., 2019) interacting with changing land use (Archer \r\net al., 2017; Venter et al., 2018), where herbivory and fire regimes are \r\naltered (O'Connor et al., 2014; Archer et al., 2017; see also discussion \r\non fire and herbivory in Section 2.4.3.1). In some cases, woody increase \r\nhas been balanced locally by changes in runoff (Trichon et al"


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", 2018) or \r\nby land clearing and fuel wood harvesting, as seen in western Niger, \r\nnorthern Nigeria, and at the periphery of major towns (Montagne \r\net al., 2016).\r\nCCP3.2.1.5 Tree Death and Woody Cover Decline"


id: ec3a57db46dedc6359d7a9d2e082e950
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"Semiarid ecosystems have a disproportionately large role in the global \r\ncarbon cycle, driving trends and interannual variability of the global \r\ncarbon sink (Alstrom et al., 2015). These systems are highly sensitive \r\nto annual precipitation and temperature variations (high confidence) \r\n(Alstrom et al., 2015, Poulter et al., 2014). The positive trend in semiarid \r\nregions is consistent with widespread woody encroachment and \r\nincreased vegetation greenness (Andela et al., 2013; Piao et al., 2019; \r\nPiao et al., 2020) driven by CO2 fertilization and rainfall increases (Sitch \r\net al., 2015; Piao et al., 2020), although some trends are complicated \r\nby irrigation practices (He et al., 2019). Increases in temperature and \r\ndrought diminish this trend through reduced vegetation productivity \r\nand increased vegetation mortality (Brandt et al., 2016; Ma et al., 2016; \r\nFernandez-Martinez et al., 2019; Maurer et al"


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", 2020) with indications \r\nthat this trend is declining or reversing in some locations (Yuan et al., \r\n2019; Wang et al., 2020)."


id: d8af580f3c0b1ed401619fd2e973de9d
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"Changed climates have increased water constraints of vegetation \r\ngrowth most notably in the Mediterranean (Sections CCP1.2.3.2; \r\nCCP4.2.1) and West and Central Asia (Jiao et al., 2021). Climate change \r\nand elevated CO2 have both increased and decreased vegetation \r\nsensitivity to rainfall throughout drylands, with the degree of variation \r\nshaped by region, land use and vegetation traits (Haverd et al., 2017; \r\nAbel et al., 2021). Mineral nitrogen production in drylands may become \r\nincreasingly decoupled from consumption by plants over prolonged \r\ndry periods, and more extreme hydrological events can drive multiple \r\nchanges to nutrient cycling (Manzoni et  al., 2019). Soil biocrusts \r\n(composed of lichens, bryophytes and soil microorganisms), which \r\ncontribute to dryland ecosystem function, including carbon uptake \r\nand soil stabilisation (Reed et al"


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", 2019), are sensitive to warming and \r\naltered rainfall in a shift in biocrust communities of mosses and lichens \r\nin favour of early successional cyanobacteria-dominated biocrusts \r\n(Escolar et  al., 2012; Reed et  al., 2012), which can increase surface \r\nalbedo (Rutherford et al., 2017)."


id: 642772c4d33d65ebee4a54d633f74660
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"Changes in aridity (Rudgers et al., 2018) have caused some expansion \r\nof dominant grasses (often invasive) into desert shrublands. The \r\nspread of invasive Bromus tectorum may be enhanced by altered \r\nprecipitation and freeze-thaw cycles (low confidence) (Collins \r\nand Xia, 2015; Rudgers et al., 2018). Arid grassland has expanded \r\n(between 10-100 km) into the eastern Karoo, South Africa (high \r\nconfidence) (du Toit et al., 2015; Masubelele et al., 2015a; 2015b). \r\nObservations from 100-year-old grazing trials demonstrate that the \r\nincrease in grassiness is a product of shift in rainfall seasonality and \r\nan increase in rainfall (Du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; du Toit et  al., \r\n2015; 2018; Masubelele et  al., 2015a;, 2015b). These changes are \r\ncausing an increase in fire frequency in these seldom burnt areas (du \r\nToit et al., 2015)"


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" The Sahara was suggested to have expanded 10% \r\nfrom 1902 to 2013 (Thomas and Nigam, 2018), although herbaceous \r\nvegetation production has increased in general in the Sahel since \r\nthe dry 1980s (Eklundh and Olsson, 2003; Anyamba and Tucker, \r\n2005; Herrmann et al., 2005; Hutchinson et al., 2005; Olsson et al., "


id: b785e172db6e9e640f6f49ed274701b5
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"changes in circulation strength of the Indian summer monsoon since \r\n2002 have led to a substantial reduction of dust in the Thar Desert and \r\nsurrounding region, showing agreement with findings from the Sahel \r\nand the West African Monsoon (Kergoat et  al., 2017). A decreasing \r\ntrend in the number and intensity of SDS in spring (2007-2016) in \r\nEast Asia has also responded to higher precipitation and soil moisture, \r\nrelated to a decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex, favouring \r\nhigher vegetation cover during the period studied (An et al., 2018). \r\nGlobal climate change, transboundary movement of aeolian material \r\nby atmospheric flows from Central Asia, dynamics of the Caspian Sea \r\nregime, erosion, salinisation and the loss of land as a result of the \r\nplacement of industrial facilities have expanded the land area prone \r\nto desertification in Russia"


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" Desertification has been observed to some \r\nextent in 27 sub-regions of the Russian Federation on territory of more \r\nthan 100 million hectares (Kust et al., 2011; also recently confirmed by \r\nNational Report, 2019). Eastern and south-eastern regions of Kalmykia, \r\nRussia, serve as dust sources, while dust and sand masses from areas \r\nof the Black Land sometimes move far beyond to parts of Rostov, \r\nAstrakhan, Volgograd and Stavropol regions. Agricultural land in these \r\nareas can become covered with dust and sand 10 cm or more thick, \r\nwith negative impacts on yields (Tsymbarovich et al., 2020). High dust \r\nday frequency is also occurring in the High Latitude Dust (HLD) source \r\nareas not reported in Figure  CCP3.2, such as in Iceland, Patagonia, \r\nCanada, Alaska and, based on in situ measurements, in Antarctica \r\n(Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2014; Bullard et al., 2016; Dagsson\u0002Waldhauserova and Meinander, 2019; Bachelder et al., 2020)"


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" Active \r\nHLD sources cover at least 500,000 km2\r\n and produce at least 5% of \r\nglobal dust budget (Bullard et al., 2016). HLD has negative impacts on \r\nthe cryosphere via albedo changes and snow/ice melting (Boy, 2019; \r\nDagsson-Waldhauserova and Meinander, 2019)."


id: d0d923a887bd629d51f8c92f46a21d12
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"Desertification and SDS can cause substantial socioeconomic damage \r\nin drylands (UNEP, 1992; Opp et  al., 2021) over both the short and \r\nlong term. Short-term impacts occur on health, food production \r\nsystems, infrastructure (damaging buildings, energy systems and \r\ncommunications), transport and related economic productivity, air \r\nand road traffic, and costs incurred in clearing sand and dust from \r\ndeposition areas (Mirzabaev et al., 2019). In the Arab region increasing \r\nfrequency of SDS events is projected to further exacerbate water \r\nscarcity and drought (ESCWA, 2017). Longer-term costs include loss of \r\necosystem services, biodiversity and habitat, chronic health problems, \r\nsoil erosion and reduced soil quality (particularly through nutrient \r\nlosses and deposition of pollutants), and disruption of global climate \r\nregulation (Middleton, 2018; Allahbakhshi et al., 2019)"


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" Dust deposition \r\nnevertheless can offer environmental and economic benefits, bringing \r\nimportant nutrients that improve and sustain soil fertility (Marticorena \r\net al., 2017). Preventing and reducing SDS entails upfront investment \r\ncosts but full benefit-cost analyses of different measures compared \r\nto the costs of inaction are scarce and need to consider the likely \r\nfrequency and magnitude of SDS events (Tozer and Leys, 2013)."


id: d0e6a6f753237b7a6eb6fd3b93502ec4
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"The potential impacts of climate change, recurrent droughts and \r\ndesertification on human health in drylands include: higher risks from \r\nwater scarcity (linked to deteriorating surface and ground water quality \r\nand water-borne diseases; Stringer et al., 2021), food insecurity and \r\nmalnutrition (Section  16.2.3.4) in the absence of sufficient imports, \r\nrespiratory, cardiovascular and infectious diseases caused by SDS \r\n(Mirzabaev et  al., 2019), potential displacement and migration and \r\nmental health consequences (Chapter 7; Stringer et al., 2021) and heat \r\nstress (Dunne et al., 2013; Zhao et al., 2015; Russo et al., 2016). SDS \r\nnegatively impact human health through various pathways, causing \r\nrespiratory, cardiovascular diseases and facilitating infections (high \r\nconfidence) (Diaz et al., 2017; Goudarzi et al., 2017; Allahbakhshi et al., \r\n2019; Munzel et al., 2019). SDS can cause mortality and injuries related \r\nto transport accidents (Goudie, 2014)"


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" Research from China suggests \r\nthat prenatal exposure to SDS can affect children's cognitive function \r\n(Li et  al., 2018). The pollutants that are entrained and ingested or \r\ninhaled closely link to the land management strategies in source areas."


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"Climate change and desertification have been linked to water loss \r\n(Bayram and Ozturk, 2014; Schwilch et  al., 2014; Mohamed et  al., \r\n2016), decreases in water quantity for irrigation and contamination \r\nof surface water bodies (Middleton, 2017). Increased runoff in areas \r\nin the Sahel with shallow soils increased water flows to lakes and \r\nthe recharge of water tables (Favreau et  al., 2009; Gardelle et  al., \r\n2010; Descroix et  al., 2013; Kaptue et  al., 2015; Gal et  al., 2017). \r\nWater scarcity (Section  16.5.2.3.7) was among the first impacts \r\nof climate change recognised in North African countries such as \r\nMorocco which have extensive dryland areas, with countries such as \r\nTurkey, Libya, USA and China carrying out large-scale water transfer \r\nprojects (Sternberg, 2016; Stringer et al., 2021). The decrease in water \r\navailability in Morocco was substantial in terms of both surface water \r\nsupply (Rochdane et al., 2012; Choukri et al., 2020) and groundwater \r\n(Bahir et al"


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"Rising temperatures, variation in rainfall patterns and frequent extreme \r\nweather events associated with climate change have adversely \r\naffected agro-ecological food systems and pastoral systems in some \r\ndrylands (Zhu et al., 2013; Amin et al., 2018), especially in developing \r\ncountries (Haider and Adnan, 2014; Ahmed et  al., 2016; ur Rahman \r\net  al., 2018) where desertification is a key challenge to agricultural \r\nlivelihoods. Recurrent droughts in recent decades, coupled with wind \r\nerosion (particularly of fine sediment which gives soil its water-holding \r\ncapacity and nutrients), affected vast areas in Argentina, leading to land \r\nabandonment and agricultural fields being covered by sand and invasive \r\nplants (Abraham et al., 2016). Temperature increases have contributed \r\nto reduced wheat yields in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid zones of \r\nPakistan (Sultana et al., 2019)"


id: 68ac2b1b833b5f3bb167fbb4ec3791ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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content:
" Agricultural production in the drylands \r\nof South Punjab is experiencing irreversible impacts since the grain \r\nformation phase has become swifter with a warmer climate, leading to \r\nimproper growth and reduced yields (Rasul et al., 2011)."


id: 1ee88f7a84ef14a083bace299997cb70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 2304
content:
"Aslam et  al. (2018) regard climate change impacts as particularly \r\nthreatening to the livestock sector, water and food security, and \r\nthe economy beyond agriculture in South Punjab, particularly as \r\nyields decrease. In the livestock sector across global drylands (WGI \r\nTS.4.3.2.10), observed impacts include reduction of plant cover in \r\nrangelands, reduced livestock and crop yields, loss of biodiversity \r\nand increased land degradation and soil nutrient loss (Van de Steeg, \r\n2012; Mganga et al., 2015; Ahmed et al., 2016; Mohamed et al., 2016; \r\nEldridge and Beecham, 2018, Arias et  al., 2021), as well as injury \r\nand livestock death due to SDS. This is particularly worrisome for \r\ntraditional pastoralists who find themselves with fewer safety nets \r\nand more limited adaptive capacities than in the past, particularly \r\nwhere mobility, access and tenure rights are becoming restricted \r\n(Box CCP3"


id: f3c84e3997389900fe33af4eba6b6c7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 35869
content:
"1) and where use of technologies such as mobile phones \r\ncan result in mixed effects, as found in Morocco (Vidal-Gonzalez and \r\nNahhass, 2018). Observed SDS impacts can increase food production \r\ncosts and threaten sustainability more generally (Middleton, 2017)."


id: fba75bdbcbe4d1ee889ddeb97323d142
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 37094
content:
"CCP3.3.1.3 Aridity\r\nStudies based on the AI (the ratio of annual potential evapotranspiration \r\nto precipitation), almost always project conditions of increasing aridity \r\nunder climate change, and associated widespread expansion of drylands \r\n(Huang et  al., 2016). The limitations of the AI are widely reported \r\n(Mirzabaev et al., 2019), with alternative indices that consider different \r\nvariables, including the Ecohydrological Index, PDSI, Standardised \r\nPrecipitation Index and SPEI (Stringer et  al., 2021). AI projections \r\nindicate potentially severe aridification in the Amazon, Australia, Chile, \r\nthe Mediterranean region, northern, southern and western Africa, \r\nsouthwestern USA and South America (medium confidence) (Feng and \r\nFu, 2013; Greve and Seneviratne, 2015; Jones and Gutzler, 2016; Park \r\net al., 2018)"


id: 92f33612d124c1df9ed4c73291dff111
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 20634
content:
" However, the AI does not incorporate potential changes to \r\nplant transpiration under increasing CO2 concentration and therefore \r\noverestimates drought conditions and aridity. Additionally, it does not \r\nreflect seasonality in rainfall and evapotranspiration, which is important \r\nin regions where temperature and actual evapotranspiration are not \r\nincreasing during the wet season when vegetation growth is occurring. \r\nMirzabaev et al. (2019) concluded that while aridity will increase in \r\nsome places (high confidence), there is insufficient evidence to suggest \r\na global change in dryland aridity (medium confidence). Nevertheless, \r\na comparison of several metrics of aridity showed aridity increases for \r\nseveral hotspots such as the Mediterranean region and South Africa \r\n(Greve et  al., 2019). Under RCP8.5, aridity zones could expand by \r\none-quarter of the 1990 area by 2100, increasing to over half of the \r\nglobal terrestrial area (Huang et al., 2016; Lickley and Solomon, 2018)"


id: 7c0133b6825fc428bf9344674e13856d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 17113
content:
" \r\nLower greenhouse gas emissions, under RCP4.5, could limit expansion \r\nto one-tenth of the 1990 area by 2100 (Huang et al., 2016). Aridity \r\ncould expand substantially on all continents except Antarctica (Huang \r\net  al., 2016), with expansion first manifesting in the Mediterranean \r\nregion, southern Africa, southern South America and western Australia \r\n(Lickley and Solomon, 2018). In the Northern Hemisphere, aridity zones \r\ncould expand poleward as much as 11deg latitude (Rajaud and Noblet\u0002Ducoudre, 2017). By 2100, the population of dryland areas could \r\nincrease by 700  million people and, under RCP8.5, 3  billion people \r\nmight live in areas with a 25% or greater increase in aridity (Lickley \r\nand Solomon, 2018). Many studies point to an increasing dryland area \r\nbased on the AI, but there is low agreement on the actual amount \r\nand area of change (Feng and Fu, 2013; Scheff and Frierson, 2015; \r\nHuang et al., 2017)"


id: d8b08e70e2282007bae88f11a55ceb7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 31605
content:
" The inconsistency between studies is largely due \r\nto the substantial internal climate variability in regional precipitation. \r\nChanges in annual precipitation have been shown to range from -30% \r\nto 25% over drylands. Consistent changes in precipitation are only \r\nfound at high latitudes, while total PET is projected to increase over \r\nmost land areas (Feng and Fu, 2013). This leads to more consistent, \r\nwidespread drying in the tropics, subtropics and mid-latitudes in most \r\nmodels (Feng and Fu, 2013; Cook et  al., 2014; Scheff and Frierson, \r\n2015; Zhao and Dai, 2015)."


id: efb371161ebe566a5ddf02b65b0dd2cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35212
content:
"Globally, warming rates have been twice as high in drylands as in humid \r\nlands, because the sparse vegetation cover and lower soil moisture of \r\ndryland ecosystems amplify temperature and aridity increases (Huang \r\net al., 2016). This enhanced warming is expected to continue in the \r\nfuture. Surface warming over drylands is projected to reach ~6.5degC \r\n(~3.5degC) under the high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) \r\n8.5 (low-moderate RCP4.5) emissions scenario by the end of this \r\ncentury, relative to the historical period (1961-1990) (Huang et  al., \r\n2016; Huang et al., 2017). Exploring the spatial variations between the \r\naeolian desertification response in selected climate change scenarios, \r\nWang et al. (2017) reported that temperature rise could trigger aeolian \r\ndesertification in West Asia, Central China and Mongolia"


id: c638aff51298bcca78cbe2622fd6e316
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28764
content:
" The number \r\nof extremely hot days with temperatures above 40degC is projected to \r\nincrease considerably across the Arab region by the end of the 21st \r\ncentury (ESCWA, 2017)."


id: 55fd18c961c653d64002e3d14534db90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11021
content:
"Drought conditions (frequency, severity and duration) are expected \r\nto substantially worsen in global drylands, driven by a higher \r\nsaturation threshold and more intense and frequent dry spells under \r\nrising temperatures (Liu et  al., 2019a; 2019b). In a +1.5degC world, \r\nhistorical 50-year droughts (based on the Standardised Precipitation\u0002Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) could occur twice as frequently \r\nacross 58% of global landmasses relative to the 1976-2005 period, \r\nan area that increases to 67% under 2degC warming (Gu et al., 2020). \r\nMulti-year drought events of magnitudes exceeding historical baselines \r\nwill increase by 2050 in countries with drylands including Australia, \r\nBrazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA (Jenkins and Warren, 2015). The \r\nmagnitude of drought stress in different regions differs depending on \r\nthe metric used"


id: 147ad04da8382cf16f30aeb5fcb7154d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 730
content:
" Projections based on the PDSI suggest drought stress \r\nwill increase by more than 70% globally, while a substantially lower \r\nestimate of 37% is found when precipitation minus evapotranspiration \r\n(P - E) is used (Swann et al., 2016). However, the two metrics agree \r\non increasing drought stress in regions with more robust decreases "


id: 983ce01bfc6a26b6df531b79ab73daa1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21462
content:
"the northern Great Plains (Pu and Ginoux, 2017). A declining trend \r\nin dust emission and transport from the Sahara under RCP8.5 was \r\ndetected by Evan et al. (2016), but regional climate model experiments \r\nconducted by Ji et al. (2018) under the same scenario indicated that \r\noverall dust loadings would increase by the end of the 21st century \r\nover West Africa. New dust sources may emerge with changing climate \r\nconditions, as Bhattachan et al. (2012) indicate for the Kalahari Desert \r\nin southern Africa, due to vegetation loss and dune remobilisation. \r\nThere is overall low confidence on future atmospheric dust loads at \r\nthe global and regional scale. Models of future dust emissions are \r\nlimited by the low accuracy of models of present anthropogenic dust \r\nemissions, which range from 10% to 60% of the total atmospheric \r\ndust load (Webb and Pierre, 2018)"


id: 9b74498a8836f51719b183aea0aac34d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22011
content:
" A global compilation of data \r\nfrom sedimentary archives (ice cores), remote sensing, airborne \r\nsediment sampling and meteorological station data estimated that \r\nanthropogenic dust emissions have at least doubled over the past \r\n250 years (Hooper and Marx, 2018). While future emissions of natural \r\ndust sources are projected to decrease (Mahowald et  al., 2006) or \r\nremain stable (Ashkenazy et  al., 2012), when sources of human \r\nemissions are included, projections of future atmospheric dust loads \r\nsuggest that emissions may increase (Stanelle et al., 2014)."


id: 1fb5e855ab775f063c67fbab6f7ac580
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2423
content:
"y\r\nGlobal dryland area (based on the AI) is projected to expand by ~10% \r\nby 2100 compared to 1961-1990 under a high emission scenario (Feng \r\nand Fu, 2013). However, there are significant regional differences in \r\nthe drivers of dryland expansion and subsequent estimates of change \r\nin dryland extent. Subtropical drylands are projected to expand as \r\nthe climate in these regions shifts from temperate to subtropical and \r\naridity increases in currently sub-humid subtropical regions, resulting \r\nin the loss of temperature-controlled seasonal cycles (Schlaepfer et al., \r\n2017). Observed and projected warming and drying trends are most \r\nsevere in transitional climate regions between dry and wet climates, \r\nwith some exceptions (Nkrumah et al., 2019), which are often highly \r\npopulated agricultural regions with fragile ecosystems (Cheng and \r\nHuang, 2016). In contrast, P  -  E predicts decreasing drought stress \r\nacross temperate Asia and central Africa (Swann et  al., 2016)"


id: 67fd16f936d64f2b07813a8237062f72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13947
content:
" \r\nExpansion of arid regions is anticipated in southwest North America, \r\nthe northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. The main \r\nareas of semiarid expansion are expected to occur in the north side \r\nof the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. \r\nIn contrast, India, eastern equatorial Africa and other areas of the \r\nsouthern Saharan regions are projected to have shrinking drylands \r\n(Biasutti and Giannini, 2006; Biasutti, 2013; Rowell et al., 2016). Future \r\nprojections may underestimate dryland expansion, since the Coupled \r\nModel Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models underestimate \r\nhistorical warming (Huang et al., 2016) and overestimate precipitation \r\nover drylands, particularly in the semiarid and dry sub-humid regions \r\n(Ji et al., 2015). However, estimates vary depending on the metric used \r\n(Swann et al., 2016; Berg et al., 2017b)"


id: 844566517497175ea5be3186fcc141c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18346
content:
" Studies based on off-line aridity \r\nand drought metrics (calculated from model output of precipitation, \r\nevapotranspiration or temperature) project strong surface drying trends \r\n(Cook et  al., 2014; Scheff and Frierson, 2015; Zhao and Dai, 2015), \r\nwhile projections based on total soil water availability from CMIP5 \r\nmodels show weaker and less extensive drying (Berg et al., 2017a). \r\nIn contrast, projections in southern Africa may overestimate future \r\ndrying, with systematic rainfall biases being found in the present-day \r\nclimatology in models that simulate extreme future drying (Munday \r\nand Washington, 2019). Improvements in projections of future changes \r\nin aridity require better understanding of seasonality, land hydrology \r\nand the feedbacks between projected soil moisture decrease on land \r\nsurface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation (Huang et al., \r\n2016)."


id: 1d18408e251d5c738f2b943c9f1b215f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2022
content:
"Changes to the composition, structure and functioning of natural \r\ncommunities in deserts and dryland ecosystems are key risks \r\nresulting from water stress, drought intensity and continued habitat \r\ndegradation, greater frequency of wildfire, biodiversity loss and the \r\nspread of invasive species (Hurlbert et al., 2019). Not all these stresses \r\noccur at the same time in a particular environment, with some \r\nareas more exposed to, for example, wildfire than others, especially \r\nin areas with high amounts of dry herbaceous biomass. Grassland \r\ncomposition may shift as C3 plants are replaced by C4 species, which \r\nhave higher optimal temperatures and higher water use efficiency \r\n(although seasonality of precipitation also plays a role) (Knapp et al., \r\n2020)"


id: 8c73aceb530b8978c49849b96e7fb26a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19615
content:
" Many desert species have morphological, physiological and/\r\nor behavioural adaptations to cope with climatic extremes, including \r\nrapid regeneration following droughts (Boudet, 1977; Hiernaux and Le \r\nHouerou, 2006), leaf dropping during the dry season to reduce water \r\nloss (Santos et  al., 2014), alongside long histories of adaptation to \r\nclimate change (Brooks et al., 2005; Ballouche and Rasse, 2007), while \r\nmany animals live near their physiological limits (Vale and Brito, 2015). \r\nSubstantial ecological effects may occur when extreme events such \r\nas heatwaves or droughts are superimposed on the warming trend, "


id: e8f2e363de2f5b0e6ac45d97fc6f08cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34165
content:
"Higher dust emissions are consistent with climate change projections \r\nindicating an expansion in the global area of drylands (Feng and Fu, \r\n2013; Huang et al., 2016) and increased drought risk (Cook et al., 2014; \r\nXu et al., 2019), but future trends in dust event frequency and intensity \r\nas a result of climate change are uncertain and will vary geographically \r\n(Jia, 2019). Combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic \r\nactivities are projected to increase sand encroachment and extreme \r\ndust storms (Omar Asem and Roy, 2010; Sharratt et al., 2015; Pu and \r\nGinoux, 2017) as a result of increased aridity, accelerating soil erosion \r\n(Section  4.4.8; Sharratt et  al., 2015) and loss of biomass (Sharratt \r\net al., 2015; Middleton and Kang, 2017). Shifts in dust storm timings \r\nare also projected in some regions (Hand et  al., 2016). Dustiness is \r\nprojected to increase in the southern US Great Plains in the late 21st \r\ncentury under the RCP8"


id: bad5fbdb080ea1bdcda84258d257b876
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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vector_id: 26931
content:
"pushing species beyond their physiological and mortality thresholds \r\n(Hoover et al., 2015; Harris et al., 2018).\r\nClimate change increases risks of continued range retractions of Karoo \r\nsucculents in South Africa (Young et al., 2016), dry argan woodlands \r\nin Morocco (Alba-Sanchez et  al., 2015), epiphytic cacti in Brazil \r\n(Cavalcante and Duarte, 2019; Cavalcante et al., 2020) and other plant \r\nspecies exposed to higher aridity. Projected increases in heat and \r\naridity could increase mortality of trees and shrubs in Sonoran Desert \r\necosystems in the USA (Munson et al., 2012; 2016b), reduce sagebrush \r\nin arid ecosystems of the western USA (Renwick et  al., 2018), and \r\ncontribute to the replacement of perennial grasses with xeric shrubs in \r\nthe southwestern USA (Bestelmeyer et al., 2018)"


id: 78b20b0c99cefc979c2c2d0c29ca884c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16550
content:
" CO2 fertilization and \r\nwarmer conditions, combined with changes in timing and availability \r\nof moisture, could increase invasive grasses and wildfire in desert \r\necosystems of Australia and southwestern USA, where wildfire has \r\nhistorically been absent or infrequent (Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; \r\nHorn and St. Clair, 2017; Klinger and Brooks, 2017; Syphard et al., 2017). \r\nTrends of woody encroachment may continue in some North American \r\nand African drylands or at least not reverse (Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; \r\nCaracciolo et al., 2016). Impacts of woody encroachment on drylands \r\nmay show a slight increase in carbon, but a decline in water and huge \r\nnegative impacts on biodiversity, with a tendency for open ecosystem \r\nspecies to be most affected (Archer et al., 2017). Expansion of grasses \r\ninto these arid shrublands has the potential to transform them rapidly, \r\nespecially through the acceleration of the fire cycle (Bradley et  al., \r\n2016)"


id: ed7f53b8c6bc0c146f911e35f7ac75e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34831
content:
" While the impact of increased aridity may be offset by changing \r\nwater use efficiency by plants under high CO2 concentrations, limiting \r\nthe expansion of dryland ecosystems (Swann et al., 2016; Mirzabaev \r\net al., 2019), increased plant growth in response to elevated CO2, which \r\nresults in increased water consumption, may counteract this. Increased \r\nwater use efficiency is therefore not expected to counterbalance \r\nincreased evaporative demand (Chapter 8). There is medium confidence\r\nthat succulent species will be particularly vulnerable to increased heat \r\nand aridity due to reduced physiological performance, loss of seed \r\nbanks, lower germination rates and increased mortality (Table CCP3.1; \r\nMusil et al., 2005; Aragon-Gastelum et al., 2014; 2017; Shryock et al., \r\n2014; Martorell et al., 2015; Carrillo-Angeles et al., 2016; Kozminska \r\net al., 2019)."


id: bc2eef24c1501829f9620c847079173b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27181
content:
"Projected impacts of climate change on the risk of food insecurity are \r\na particular concern for the developing world drylands (Chapter 16; \r\nMirzabaev et al., 2019), potentially leading to the breakdown of food \r\nproduction systems, including crops, livestock and fisheries, as well as \r\ndisruptions in food supply chains and distribution (Myers et al., 2017; \r\nLewis and Mallela, 2018). Developing country drylands are particularly \r\nvulnerable due to a higher share of populations with lower income, \r\nlower physical access to nutritious food, social discrimination and \r\nother environmental factors that link to climate change. For example, \r\ncountries such as Somalia, Yemen and Sudan faced recent and resurging \r\nchallenges from an increase in desert locusts, the effects of which, in \r\n2020, extended from East Africa through the Arabian Peninsula and \r\nIran as far as India and Pakistan. Meynard et al"


id: 8f0b644eaa733b1e152fab5074a22e65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20044
content:
" (2020) note that under \r\nclimate change, some areas suffering from previous outbreaks may see \r\nchanges in formation of swarms of Schistocerca gregaria. Salih et al. \r\n(2020) recognise that attributing the 2020 swarms as a single event \r\nto climate change remains challenging, but highlight that projected \r\ntemperature and rainfall increases in deserts and strong tropical cycles \r\ncan create conditions conducive to the development, aggregation, \r\noutbreak and survival of locusts. Mandumbu et  al. (2017) highlight \r\nhow crop parasites such as Striga spp. in southern Africa may benefit \r\nfrom higher temperatures and rainfall activating dormant seeds, while \r\nhigh winds aid their dispersal. Combined with increasing risks of \r\nerosion and soil fertility losses (Striga is able to tolerate drought and \r\na low nitrogen environment), this can have important impacts on the \r\nyields of key dryland crops such as maize and pearl millet."


id: ca8192dd3b1e1ce92a0024369fcc2295
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29423
content:
"Human responses can exacerbate desertification processes under \r\nclimate change conditions, even in deserts. Exploitation of mineral \r\nresources (e.g., lithium mining in Chile's Atacama Desert) can cause \r\nhuman population changes as people flock to the area for work (Liu \r\net al., 2019), increasing vulnerability due to, for example, soil erosion \r\nand salinisation, as well as increasing pressure on potable water for \r\nhuman consumption (Stringer et  al., 2021) and exhausting aquifers. \r\nSalinisation is projected to increase in the drylands due to climate \r\nchange impacts in future (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019). For example, in \r\nIndia, about 7 million hectares of arable land area is currently affected \r\nby salt (Sharma et al., 2015; Sharma and Singh, 2015)"


id: 12c805d495893acce0a25f859302785
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 452
content:
" It is projected \r\nthat unsustainable use of marginal quality waters in irrigation and \r\nneglect of drainage, combined with climate change impacts, will \r\naccelerate land salinisation in India, rendering another 9  million \r\nhectares salty and less productive by 2050 (ICAR-CSSRI, 2015). This \r\nhas important cost implications given that annually, 16.84  million \r\ntonnes of farm production valued at INR 230.19 billion is already lost \r\nin India due to salinity and associated problems (Sharma and Singh, \r\n2015). The literature further shows evidence of desertification of oases \r\nand irrigated lands in parts of northern China's drylands (Wang et al., \r\n2020), the Indian subcontinent's deserts, as well as the Mesopotamian \r\nArabian Desert (Ezcurra, 2006; Dilshat et al., 2015)."


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"Adaptations to climate change impacts in human systems vary \r\ndepending on exposure to risks, types of risks and responses, \r\nunderlying social vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities, including \r\naccess to resources, the extent of adaptation responses and the \r\npotential of these responses to reduce risk/vulnerability (Chapter 16; \r\nSingh and Chudasama 2021). Adaptations tend to be applied locally, \r\ntackling symptoms of the problem and proximate drivers (e.g., of \r\ndesertification), rather than distant or external drivers (Morris et al., \r\n2016; Adenle and Ifejika Speranza, 2021). Different groups require \r\ndifferent kinds of supports and levers to enable them to follow adaptive \r\npathways (Moller et al., 2017; Stringer et al., 2020) and face different \r\nbarriers and limits to adaptation (Chapter 18). What constitutes an \r\nincremental adaptation in one location may be transformational in \r\nanother"


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" Spatial patterns of dryland resilience and adaptive capacity \r\ncan be partly explained by access to livelihood capitals (Mazhar et al., \r\n2021) and are shaped by prevailing structures and power dynamics. \r\nSupportive policies, institutions and good governance approaches can \r\nstrengthen the adaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists \r\nand other resource users (high confidence) (Stringer et  al., 2017). \r\nTable  CCP3.2 provides examples of illustrative adaptation options \r\nresponding to major challenges of climate change and desertification \r\nin deserts and semiarid areas. Some adaptations present no-regrets \r\noptions while others tackle desertification and/ or climate changes to \r\ndifferent extents."


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"Natural systems are also able to adapt to climate change, be adapted \r\nand become more resilient to desertification. For example, the root \r\nnetwork architecture of the hyper-arid Negev Desert acacia trees has \r\nenabled them to withstand intensive cultivation and climate change\u0002driven desertification (Winter et al., 2015), while vegetation-induced \r\nsand mounds ('coppice dunes') in the Arabian Desert have reduced \r\ndesertification through reducing wind erosion and enriching sand \r\ndesert land with water and nutrients (Quets et al., 2017). Vegetation \r\ncover of psammophyte shrub species (in the 'desert oasis transitional \r\narea') surrounding the Dunhuang Oasis (northwest China) reduces oasis \r\nland degradation risk by reducing sand grain size and velocity of winds \r\nfrom the aeolian desert (Zhang et al"


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", 2007); while land use planning in \r\nIsrael's Negev Desert taking a 'sharing' approach between cultivation \r\nand urbanisation has helped to minimise the external degrading \r\neffects of adjacent desert land ecosystems (Portnov and Safriel, 2004). \r\nScholars are nevertheless questioning the wider suitability of tree \r\nplanting in drylands, given concerns for water availability and other \r\necosystem services (Veldman et  al., 2015; 2019; Bond et  al., 2019). \r\nHow natural dryland systems are managed following disturbances \r\nsuch as wildfire is important too. van den Elsen et al. (2020) found that \r\nestablishing vegetation and mulch cover after a fire in a Mediterranean \r\ndryland ecosystem reduced soil erosion, helping maintain soil fertility \r\nand nutrients. However, different management objectives require \r\ndifferent adaptations"


id: fb431588036d695e448c1f22a18efc36
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" For example, adaptation measures that reduce \r\nland degradation through reforestation could increase vulnerability to \r\nfire if they exclude ecologically sound fire management or are based \r\non plant species that are fire prone. Combinations of different land \r\nmanagement practices and governance approaches tackling a range of \r\ndifferent stresses appear to best support sustainability and adaptation \r\nover the long term (van den Elsen et al., 2020)."


id: 1f847c2c65be31367ec20bee16a91d31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
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"Adaptations to climate change, desertification, drought management \r\n(Section  17.2.2.2) and sustainable development activities largely \r\noverlap in drylands, pointing to synergies between them (Reichhuber \r\net  al., 2019). For example, support for communal and flexible land \r\ntenure could bring about benefits across multiple dimensions, while \r\nattention to water as a limiting factor in drylands can link to multiple \r\nSDGs (Stringer et al., 2021), as well as adaptations in natural systems, \r\nwhere improved forecasting and anticipatory science and management \r\ncan be appropriate (Bradford et  al., 2018). Currently, more than \r\n125 countries around the world, particularly in drylands, are setting land \r\ndegradation neutrality (LDN) targets. LDN and its hierarchical response \r\nmechanisms of avoiding, reducing and reversing land degradation can \r\nprovide an overarching resilience-based framework for adaptation at the \r\nnational level (Mirzabaev et al., 2019; Orr et al., 2017b; Cowie et al"


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", \r\n2018) and support biodiversity conservation (Akhtar-Schuster et  al., \r\n2017). However, achieving LDN will require a transparent decision and \r\nprioritisation process (Dallimer and Stringer, 2018), anchored in a socio\u0002ecological systems approach (Okpara et al., 2018), with investment in \r\nall dimensions of an enabling environment, including inclusive policies \r\nand regulations, sustainable institutions, accessible finance and effective \r\nscience-policy communications and interactions (Verburg et al., 2019; \r\nAllen et  al., 2020). LDN calls for integrated land use planning to \r\nensure land uses are optimised at a landscape scale to help balance \r\ncompetition for limited land resources and harness multiple benefits \r\n(Cowie et al., 2018, Verburg et al"


id: 1f6a2341f3cf9c92d69800b910d63950
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", 2019), recognising that adaptations \r\npresent synergies and trade-offs along various dimensions of sustainable \r\ndevelopment such as poverty reduction, enhancing food security and \r\nhuman health or providing improved access to clean energy, land, water, \r\nand finance (see Section 8.6). Distributional effects of adaptation options \r\nalso may vary between different socioeconomic groups within countries "


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"Collective action can facilitate the implementation of adaptation \r\nresponses and help tackle challenges associated with upscaling of \r\nsuccessful land-based adaptations (Thomas et  al., 2018). However, a \r\nlack of coordination between stakeholders and across sectors can be \r\nproblematic (Amiraslani et al., 2018), showing the importance of multi\u0002stakeholder engagement (De Vente et  al., 2016). Multi-stakeholder \r\nengagement is recognised as an essential part of desertification \r\ncontrol, as well as vital in tackling climate change (Reed and Stringer, \r\n2016), with participation taking place to different extents in different \r\ndrylands according to the prevailing governance system. In China, the \r\nGrain for Green programme is an example of a large-scale ecological \r\nrestoration programme securing local engagement through payments \r\nfor ecosystem services (Kong et al., 2021)"


id: a9683b110f4265409dea9198aac18f10
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" Transdisciplinary stakeholder \r\nengagement involving researchers and central and local governments \r\nin the Heihe River Basin in China's arid and semiarid northwest, using \r\nan interdisciplinary 'web' approach, enabled basin restoration. Multi\u0002stakeholder efforts saw improvement in the condition of Juyan Lake and \r\nthe surrounding catchment, increasing both the lake surface area and \r\ngroundwater in downstream locations (Liu et al., 2019)."


id: 548e65f7d7c227f159fd3cad056d9197
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"In the short- to medium-term, monitoring, prediction and early warning \r\ncan support adaptation and, for example, help reduce negative impacts \r\nof SDS by mobilising emergency responses. Daily dust forecasts \r\nenable preparation to minimise risks from SDS to both human and \r\nnatural systems (e.g., the World Meteorological Organization Sand \r\nand Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System: https://\r\nsds-was.aemet.es/forecast-products/dust-forecasts). Preparedness and \r\nemergency response procedures benefit from covering diverse sectors, \r\nsuch as public health surveillance, hospital services, air and ground \r\ntransportation services, water and sanitation, food production systems \r\nand public awareness, suggesting the need for a coherent, multi\u0002sector governance approach"


id: 86d6540675a521b0bda0ff86a9eae835
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" Longer-term actions include prioritising \r\nsustainable land management (Middleton and Kang, 2017), based on \r\nIKLK and modern science (Verner, 2012), along with the investment of \r\nfinancial and human capital in supporting these measures. Devolved \r\nadaptation finance in dryland areas of, for example, Kenya (Nyangena \r\nand Roba, 2017) and Mali (Hesse, 2016) has yielded promising insights, \r\nhighlighting the importance of climate information services and \r\nlocal government support for community prioritisation of adaptation \r\nactivities. Such actions can enable substantial benefits for poor and \r\nmarginalised men and women. Among international institutional \r\nmeasures, a global coalition to combat SDS was launched at the \r\nUnited Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Conference of \r\nParties (UNCCD COP14) in 2019, which could help to better mobilise \r\na global response to SDS"


id: 263078c13dbef121285a082983dd9b14
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" Similarly, there have been calls for increased \r\ninvestment in regional institutions such as the Desert Locust Control \r\nOrganisation for Eastern Africa to both pre-empt and tackle locust \r\nplagues (Salih et al., 2020), requiring transboundary cooperation."


id: 15dabe43118b6362d851ed1db7a349db
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"et  al., 2016; Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2018; Wilhite, 2019). It also \r\nunderscores the LDN response hierarchy avoid > reduce > reverse \r\n(Orr et  al., 2017a). Nevertheless, ex ante drought and flood risk \r\nmitigation has been adopted in limited dryland settings, despite it \r\nbeing preferable to increase preparedness before it happens, provide \r\nincentives for adaptation instead of insurance, provide insurance \r\ninstead of relief and provide relief instead of regulation (Sivakumar, \r\n2005). Yet, providing disaster relief is often more publicly visible and \r\npolitically expedient, despite its social, economic and environmental \r\nchallenges. The absence of proactive risk mitigation and resulting crisis \r\nmanagement increases vulnerability, increases reliance on government \r\nsupport, reduces self-reliance and increases costs (Grobicki et al., 2015; \r\nWilhite, 2019), as well as hindering progress towards the SDGs"


id: dbd21e0095f166dc7e8d0984a0df6c20
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" In the \r\ncase of drought and flooding, major obstacles for the transition from \r\nreactive management to proactive drought risk mitigation include path \r\ndependencies and lack of knowledge about relative costs and benefits \r\nof reactive versus proactive approaches. This lack of information can \r\ndeter large-scale and long-term investments into proactive approaches \r\n(Mirzabaev, 2016)."


id: 60b922c51bd5e9c7e877fd50207e8952
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"Many of these measures can also support climate change mitigation \r\nefforts in drylands. Uptake of adaptation measures is often grounded \r\nin clear communications and information provision to support \r\nbehavioural changes, taking into account local risk aversion and \r\nrisk perceptions (Zeweld et al., 2018; Jellason et al., 2019). Building \r\ncapacity by improving the knowledge base and access to information, \r\nas well as to financial and other resources, encourages vulnerable \r\neconomic sectors and people to adopt more self-reliant measures that \r\npromote more integrated and sustainable use of natural resources \r\n(high confidence) (Sivakumar, 2005; Wieriks and Vlaanderen, 2015; \r\nAguilar-Barajas et al., 2016; Middleton and Kang, 2017; Wilhite, 2019)"


id: b6ddaa07d846363eb923babf8ab1d5d0
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" \r\nEngaging natural resource users as active participants in planning \r\nand technology adoption using extension services, financial grants \r\nand services geared to the local area, can build resilience and drive \r\nchanges in practices (Webb and Pierre, 2018), while approaches such \r\nas Integrated Water Resources Management can support adaptation \r\nand drought risk management, including in dryland urban megacities \r\n(Stringer et  al., 2021) and in deserts and semiarid areas where \r\nprecipitation trends remain stable yet other pressures on water are \r\ngrowing (Reichhuber et al., 2019)."


id: 7f6daa46571bc3ba5bbd11229b875785
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"Drylands include the hottest and most arid areas on Earth. Human-caused climate change has been intensifying \r\nthis heat and aridity in some places, increasing temperatures more across global drylands than in humid areas. In \r\nareas which are hotter and drier, tree death has occurred and in some locations bird species have been lost. Climate \r\nchange has reduced rainfall in some dryland areas and increased rainfall in other areas. Increased rainfall, combined \r\nwith the plant-fertilizing effect of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, can increase grass and shrub production \r\nin dryland areas. Because water is scarce in drylands and aridity limits the productivity of agriculture, millions of \r\npeople living in drylands have faced severe difficulties in maintaining their livelihoods. This challenge is exacerbated \r\nby non-climate change factors, such as low levels of infrastructure, remoteness and limited livelihood options that \r\nare less dependent on scarce natural resources"


id: 86c7964e37e5e8f14190710fadd52b03
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" High temperatures in drylands increase the vulnerability of people \r\nto potential heat-related illnesses and deaths from heat under continued climate change."


id: 6af1ef332832ff6bb1ec92c684697fac
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"Most climate models project increased rainfall in tropical drylands, but more variability. High natural climatic \r\nvariability in drylands makes predictions uncertain. Understanding future impacts is further complicated by many \r\ninteracting factors such as land use change and urbanisation that affect the condition of drylands. Future trends \r\nin sand and dust storm activity are also uncertain and will not be the same everywhere, but there will likely be \r\nincreases in some regions (e.g., the USA) in the long term. The impacts of climate change in deserts and semiarid \r\nareas may have substantial implications globally: for agriculture, biodiversity, health, trade and poverty, as well as \r\npotentially, for conflicts and migration. Increasing temperatures and more irregular rainfall are expected to affect \r\nsoil and water and contribute to tree death and loss of biodiversity"


id: 71c1ccf5d71e6d1ae4e96063d7df282b
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" In other places, woody encroachment onto \r\nsavannas may increase, in response to the combination of land use change, changes in rainfall, fire suppression \r\nand CO2 fertilization. Crop yields are projected to decline in some areas, with adverse impacts on food security. The \r\npotential for conflicts and migration is primarily associated with socioeconomic development, while links to \r\nclimate change remain uncertain and lack evidence."


id: 1b7c6093d40d07ae201ab36168101c92
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content:
"Different desert and semiarid areas can benefit from different incremental and transformational solutions to move \r\ntoward sustainable development under climate change. In some dryland areas facing critical water shortages, \r\ntransformational adaptations may be needed; for example, large-scale water desalination when they have access to \r\nsea water, despite high energy use and negative environmental impacts of waste brine. In dryland agricultural areas \r\nacross the world, incremental adaptations include water conservation measures, use of improved crop varieties or \r\nincreasing herd mobility. What counts as a transformational change in some places may be incremental in others. \r\nOften solutions can target multiple development goals. For example, water harvesting can make water available \r\nduring drought, buffering water scarcity impacts, while also supporting food production, agricultural livelihoods \r\nand human health. Land-based approaches, e.g"


id: 3b41ae70c8ec5c9bad11c7d578b7048
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" restoration of grassland, shrubland, and savanna ecosystems, are \r\nimportant for ensuring ecological integrity, soil protection and preventing livelihoods from being undermined \r\nas a result of growing extreme weather events. It is important that policies, investments and interventions that \r\naim to support sustainable development take into account which groups are likely to be most affected by climate \r\nchange. Those people directly dependent on natural resources for their survival are generally most vulnerable \r\nbut least able to adapt. The capacity to translate IKLK and experience into actions can require external support. \r\nGovernments and other stakeholders can help by investing in early warning systems, providing climate information, \r\nrealigning policies and incentives for sustainable management, investing in supporting infrastructures, alongside \r\ndeveloping alternative livelihood options that are less exposed and sensitive to climate change"


id: 15bc37a7d0b0ad142e516295c06db401
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" Involving all relevant \r\nstakeholders is important. For example, in China, the Grain for Green programme secured local engagement by \r\npaying people to manage the environment more sustainably. At a global level, important groups have emerged to \r\ncooperate and offer solutions around issues such as sand and dust storms, and integrated drought management. \r\nEfforts are needed across all scales from local to global to support sustainable development in desert and semiarid \r\nareas, given projected climate changes."


id: 45923851dd58526ede0d821248aa3539
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content:
"Mediterranean Sea level is projected to rise further during the \r\ncoming decades and centuries (high confidence), likely reaching \r\n0.15-0.33 m in 2050, and 0.3-0.6 m for shared socioeconomic \r\npathways (SSP) 1-1.9 and 0.6-1.1 m for SSP5-8.5 in 2100 (relative \r\nto 1995-2014) (medium confidence). Higher values cannot be \r\nexcluded (low confidence) and the process is irreversible at the \r\nscale of centuries to millennia (high confidence). Coastal flood \r\nrisks will increase in low-lying areas along 37% of the Mediterranean \r\ncoastline that currently hosts 42 million people. The number of people \r\nexposed to sea level rise is projected to increase up to 2050, especially \r\nin the southern and eastern Mediterranean region, and may reach up \r\nto 130% compared to present in 2100 (medium confidence). Coastal \r\nsettlements, World Heritage sites and ecosystems are at longer-term \r\nrisk from sustained sea level rise over at least the coming three \r\ncenturies (high confidence). {CCP4.1.3; CCP4"


id: 85c04203bd28220481c05fea27624e35
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"Due to its particular combination of multiple strong climate \r\nhazards and high vulnerability, the Mediterranean region \r\nis a hotspot for highly interconnected climate risks. The main \r\neconomic sectors in the region (agriculture, fisheries, forestry, tourism) \r\nare highly vulnerable to climatic hazards, while socioeconomic \r\nvulnerability is also considerable. The low-lying areas are the most \r\nvulnerable areas for coastal climate-related risks (e.g., sea level rise, \r\nfloods, erosion) and other consequent risks (e.g., saltwater intrusion \r\nand agriculture damage) (high confidence). Climate change threatens \r\nwater availability, reducing river low flows and annual runoff by \r\n5-70%, reducing hydropower capacity (high confidence). Yields of rain\u0002fed crops may decrease by 64% in some locations (high confidence). \r\nOcean warming and acidification will impact marine ecosystems, with \r\nuncertain consequences on fisheries (low confidence)"


id: 9b0082426c008295d6d6094b7c757681
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" Desertification \r\nwill affect additional areas, notably in the south and southeast (medium \r\nconfidence). Burnt area of forests may increase by 96-187% under \r\n3degC, depending on fire management. Beyond 3degC, 13-30% of the \r\nNatura 2000 protected area and 15-23% of Natura 2000 sites could \r\nbe lost due to climate-driven habitat change (medium confidence). \r\n{CCP4.2; CCP4.3}"


id: 49d879b22fe138ba2a666806931e223b
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content:
"The increasing water scarcity was found to be a significant threat to \r\nagriculture (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014; Kovats et al., 2014; Niang \r\net al., 2014; Mrabet et al., 2020). Associated with increased extreme \r\ntemperatures, the Mediterranean is expected to become less attractive \r\nfor tourism (Kovats et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; Wong et al., 2014; \r\nDos Santos et al., 2020). Several critical risks for human health increase \r\ndue to climate change, including heat waves and vector-borne diseases \r\n(Kovats et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; Linares et al., 2020). Adaptation \r\noptions have been identified for many risks (buildings, water \r\nmanagement, coastal protection, etc.) (Murray et al., 2012; Revi et al., \r\n2014; Wong et al., 2014). There are synergies between adaptation and \r\nmitigation, for example, renewable energies or nature-based solutions \r\nfocused on the conservation and restoration of ecosystems (Nurse \r\net al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Vafeidis et al"


id: e61ffb42e1f1fb7f1957afe2f5e4c4f4
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content:
"All previous assessments of climate change for the Mediterranean Basin \r\nand its sub-regions indicate ongoing warming of the atmosphere and \r\nthe sea, as well as projected warming and changes in rainfall (Stocker \r\net  al., 2013; Cherif et  al., 2020). The projected increase in climate \r\nhazards, in combination with high regional vulnerability and exposure \r\nmake it a prominent 'climate change hotspot' (Giorgi, 2006), with a \r\nlarge number of vulnerable natural systems and socioeconomic sectors \r\n(Field et al., 2014; MedECC, 2020). In addition to high temperatures, the \r\nmain risk factor identified is drought, generally expected to increase \r\nin the region, significant already at global warming of only 1.5degC, \r\nreaching, for higher warming levels, intensities unprecedented during \r\nthe past 10 ka (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). In Southern Europe \r\nand North Africa, groundwater recharge and soil water content will \r\nconsequently decline, especially during summer (Kovats et al"


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"are impacting marine (Rivetti et al., 2014; Tsikliras and Stergiou, 2014; \r\nStergiou et al., 2016; Corrales et al., 2017), freshwater and terrestrial \r\necosystems (Penuelas et al., 2018; Bartsch et al., 2020; Carosi et al., \r\n2021), as well as agriculture (El-Maayar and Lange, 2013; Ortas and \r\nLal, 2013; Ponti et  al., 2014; Garcia-Mozo et  al., 2015; Moore and \r\nLobell, 2015; Oteros et  al., 2015; Di Lena et  al., 2018) and fisheries \r\n(Fortibuoni et al., 2015; Givan et al., 2018; IPBES, 2018a). Heat waves \r\nhave also increased thermal discomfort, especially in urban areas \r\n(WGI AR6 Chapter 10, Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; WGI AR6 Chapter 12, \r\nRanasinghe et al., 2021; Zinzi and Carnielo, 2017). Despite increasing \r\nwildfire hazard, forest fires are generally decreasing in the European \r\npart of the basin, due to more efficient risk management (medium \r\nconfidence) (Turco et  al., 2016; 2017)"


id: 1306105b4ef020b8e3adcf58b5aedb1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 503
content:
" Mixed trends of increasing \r\nand decreasing flash and river floods across the Mediterranean are \r\nreported, but there is low confidence in their attribution to climate \r\nchange (Mediero et al., 2014; Baahmed et al., 2015; Gaume et al., 2016; \r\nPaprotny et al., 2018; Bloschl et al., 2019; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019)."


id: f130a1c1d4f337bfc86f50311f7f51f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35451
content:
"The agricultural sector is important for most Mediterranean economies, \r\nboth in terms of GDP and employment, with its share of the total GDP \r\nin the region at 6.7% in 2016 (Kutiel, 2019). Water stress in southern \r\ncountries is largely driven by growing demand from agriculture, with a \r\npotential water deficit of 28-47% by 2030 (Sebri, 2017). In Spain, 11 \r\nout of 15 river basin districts are under water stress due to demand \r\nfrom agriculture (Vargas and Paneque, 2019). In Greece, the largest \r\nagricultural region (Thessaly) where 70% of the irrigation water comes \r\nfrom groundwater, is under water stress (Gemitzi and Lakshmi, 2018). \r\nWater scarcity and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture make \r\nMENA countries vulnerable to warming and reduced rainfall, associated \r\nwith high irrigation requirements (Dhehibi et  al., 2015; Fader et  al., \r\n2016; World Bank, 2016; 2018; Asseng et al., 2018). This is exacerbated \r\nby poverty and political instability (Price, 2017)"


id: c7b70195da8051f264a4b7a263b30d85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29001
content:
" For cropping systems \r\nin MENA countries, the Nile Valley and the western parts of North \r\nAfrica on the Atlas Mountains are classified as the areas with highest \r\nvulnerability (ESCWA, 2017). Grassland and pastoral systems are also \r\nvulnerable to increasing drought, notably in the western part of the \r\nbasin (Balzan et al., 2020). Increased heat stress in summer negatively \r\nimpacts animal health and welfare, i.e., increased incidence of diseases \r\nand mortality or lower fertility (Lacetera 2019)."


id: 31da203d66dd749745806f8abc6564a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5255
content:
"Heat waves and other climatic extremes affect densely populated \r\nurban centres and coastal regions, causing health risks for vulnerable \r\ngroups, in particular those who live in poverty with substandard \r\nhousing (Paz et al., 2016; Scortichini et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2019). \r\nNights with temperatures higher than 23degC have been increasing, with \r\na corresponding increase in health risks (Roye, 2017). Human health is \r\nalso vulnerable to other risks altered by climate change, either directly \r\nthrough droughts, floods, fires and so forth or indirectly through impacts \r\non disease vectors, air pollution, water quality and food security (Negev \r\net al., 2015). Cases of dengue fever were recently reported from several \r\ncountries, and there is an apparent threat of outbreaks transmitted \r\nby Aedes mosquitoes in the northern Mediterranean (Semenza et al., \r\n2016; Semenza and Suk, 2017)"


id: cc8b6caac87efdeb5f56ea4a1494889f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29718
content:
" The most vulnerable to climate impacts \r\nare the elderly, pregnant women, children, the chronically ill, the obese \r\nand people with cognitive impairment (Linares et al., 2015; Paravantis \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 6dd32dd8d3df3fc065940f0cef72a598
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14892
content:
"With warming, marine primary production is projected to decrease in \r\nthe western and increase in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Macias \r\net al., 2015). The diversity of copepods (species which dominate the \r\nmeso-zooplankton communities feeding Mediterranean fishes) is \r\nprojected to decline over most of the Mediterranean, albeit with \r\nregional variation (Benedetti et  al., 2018). Total marine biomass \r\n(and fishery potential) is projected to increase in the southeastern \r\nMediterranean, whereas significant decreases are most likely in the \r\nwest (Moullec et al., 2019). The projected increase of marine heat waves \r\nin the Mediterranean Sea will add additional pressures to coastal and \r\nmarine ecosystems. Warm-water fish species are expected to move \r\nnorthwards, while cold-water species will decline, and invasions of \r\nthermal-tolerant tropical species will increase (high confidence) (Lloret \r\net al., 2015; Corrales et al., 2018)"


id: 149a64b70261044c9756af5705e1421
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 748
content:
" Fish species richness is predicted to \r\nincrease in the eastern and decrease in the western Mediterranean by \r\n2050 but, by 2100, the cooler areas in the north will become a 'cul-de\u0002sac' for many species (Albouy et al., 2013; Burrows et al., 2014). Out \r\nof 75 endemic fish species, 14 are projected to go extinct, almost all \r\nof them benthic and demersal species (Ben Rais Lasram et al., 2010). \r\nThe abundance of small and medium-sized pelagic fish (e.g., European "


id: 83ae20a0d466088fd8f092b78af79ffc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:34
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18252
content:
"Heat waves will likely cause increasing mass mortality events of \r\nbenthic species, mostly invertebrate organisms, such as corals, \r\nsponges, bivalves, ascidians and bryozoans, increasing the risks of \r\nabrupt collapse of endemic species (Kersting et al., 2013; Rivetti et al., \r\n2014; Rivetti et al., 2017; Garrabou et al., 2019; Garrabou et al., 2021). \r\nDeep-water corals live near their upper thermal tolerance and further \r\nwarming could thus reduce their biotic potential and long-term survival \r\n(Nannini et al., 2015; Yasuhara and Danovaro, 2016; Marchini et al., \r\n2019), although there are some exceptions (Naumann et al., 2013) and \r\nalso knowledge gaps (Maier et al., 2019). Warming has been shown to \r\nseverely reduce the metabolism of some Mediterranean coral species \r\n(Gori et al., 2016). In summary, the observed shift in marine ecosystems \r\nsince 1980 is projected to continue and intensify, resulting in very high \r\nrisks for marine ecosystems between 1"


id: 3dd01dd3d6fc8456d96792d526a7ceb3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7080
content:
"5degC-2degC global warming levels \r\n(GWL) (Figure CCP4.8; Chapters 3; 13; CCP1; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 9cca65e61a94cf5984b8e3941580398d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22206
content:
"The Mediterranean is a micro-tidal sea, where storms may hit the \r\ncoast over several hours or longer, and not only during high tides (Le \r\nCozannet et al., 2015; Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; Sierra et al., 2016; \r\nSayol and Marcos, 2018). Projected changes of winds, storms and \r\nwaves are small, and confidence in these changes is limited by the \r\nquality of climate models applied to the Mediterranean (Calafat et al., \r\n2014; Androulidakis et al., 2015; Vousdoukas et al., 2017). Overall, sea \r\nlevel rise is projected to increase the risk of coastal flooding despite the \r\npotential slight reductions of marine storms (high confidence) (Lionello \r\net al., 2017; Vousdoukas et al., 2017). Risks of erosion and flooding \r\nwill be amplified with climate change, particularly in river deltas \r\n(Figure CCP4.6; Ali and El-Magd, 2016), on low-lying floodplains, on \r\nsandy beaches around the basin and in many coastal cities (Satta \r\net  al., 2017)"


id: ee94b5a7e2ba981fa8ba8d0af2c266b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35006
content:
" Impacts are projected to increase nonlinearly during \r\nthe 21st century with higher sea level rise, because coastal flooding \r\nwill progressively change from overtopping to overflow, high-tide \r\nflooding and ultimately permanent flooding and shoreline retreat \r\n(high confidence) (Le Cozannet et  al., 2015; Sanchez-Arcilla et  al., \r\n2016; Sierra et al., 2016; Antonioli et al., 2017; Anzidei et al., 2017; Ciro \r\nAucelli et al., 2017; Enriquez et al., 2017; Jimenez et al., 2017; Sayol \r\nand Marcos, 2018). These risks may be amplified further in areas with \r\npoor storm water management and sealed urban surfaces (Llasat et al., \r\n2013; Gaume et al., 2016)."


id: d7922a0b926b7689d39c538a10d51024
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31440
content:
"Seawater intrusion is projected to cause additional risks in coastal \r\naquifers, with severe impacts on agricultural productivity (Ali and El\u0002Magd, 2016; Wassef and Schuttrumpf, 2016; Pulido-Velazquez et  al., \r\n2018; Twining-Ward et al., 2018; Omran and Negm, 2020). While elevated \r\natmospheric CO2 concentration could be positive for photosynthesis \r\nand cereal yields (Dixit et al., 2018; Ben-Asher et al., 2019; Kapur et al., \r\n2019; Kheir et al., 2019), the net outcome for agricultural production is \r\nhighly uncertain (Moriondo et al., 2016). The projected yield losses will \r\nlikely reduce farm revenues, for example, in Morocco (Ouraich and Tyner, \r\n2018), Egypt (Abd El-Azeem, 2020), Greece (Georgopoulou et al., 2017) \r\nand Israel (Zelingher et al., 2019). Given the growing water demand \r\nfrom agriculture and other users and the increasing competition \r\nover water resources, adaptation efforts for water supply need to be \r\nenhanced (Guyennon et al., 2017; Zabalza-Martinez et al"


id: c2aa71424e1a02d0aa16394689c48aed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28213
content:
"2019; Calvache et al., 2020). Water levels in lakes and availability of \r\nreservoirs are expected to decline by up to 45% in 2100 (Koutroulis \r\net al., 2016; Masia et al., 2018; Okkan and Kirdemir, 2018; Braca et al., \r\n2019; Tramblay et al., 2020). The largest freshwater lake in the basin, \r\nLake Beysehir (Turkey), could dry out after 2070 (Bucak et al., 2017). In \r\nnorthern Africa, surface water availability is projected to be reduced by \r\n5-40% in 2030-2065 and by 7-55% in 2066-2095 from 1976-2005 \r\n(Tramblay et al., 2018), with decreases of runoff by 10-63% by mid\u0002century in Morocco and Tunisia (Marchane et al., 2017; Dakhlaoui et al., \r\n2020). Reduced summer river flows and increasing water temperatures \r\nwill constrain freshwater-cooled thermoelectric (including nuclear) \r\npower plants and hydropower plants, with possible reductions of \r\nproduction in the northern Mediterranean by 6-33% under 2degC and \r\nby 20-60% beyond 3degC warming (Lobanova et al"


id: f8e880b200b5f1910d832866816597e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36670
content:
", 2016; Solaun and \r\nCerda, 2017; Payet-Burin et al., 2018; Tobin et al., 2018).These findings \r\nconfirm the WGI AR6 Chapter 8 statement that drought duration and \r\nfrequencies and water scarcity are projected to increase drastically \r\nbetween 1.5degC and 2degC of GWLs (Douville et al., 2021)."


id: bb552ee77451099d3c44e1710d637a2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27027
content:
"Climate-driven change in pelagic production (Section CCP4.3.1), \r\ntogether with overfishing, will likely increase risks for fishery landings \r\n(Hidalgo et  al., 2018). By 2060, more than 20% of exploited fishes \r\nand invertebrates currently found in eastern Mediterranean could \r\nbecome locally extinct (Jones and Cheung, 2015; Cheung et al., 2016; \r\nBalzan et  al., 2020). Thermophilic and/or thermal-tolerant tropical \r\nspecies may increasingly dominate the catch composition (Moullec \r\net al., 2019), creating possible opportunities depending on technology \r\nand consumer acceptance of new species (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). \r\nWarming and acidification may weaken mussel shells, negatively \r\nimpacting shellfish aquaculture (Martinez et  al., 2018). High losses \r\nof clawed lobster production by the end of the century are projected \r\nunder RCP4.5 (Boavida-Portugal et al., 2018). For much of the region, \r\nfisheries revenue may decrease by 15-30% by 2050 relative to 2000 \r\nunder RCP8.5 (Lam et al"


id: 4be1d964ab74e208f9879c5273a6c2e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9358
content:
"Adaptation options to sea level rise in the Mediterranean include \r\nnature-based solutions, such as beach and shore nourishment, dune \r\nrestoration, or ecosystem-based adaptation and restoration in low-lying \r\ncoasts, lagoons, estuaries and deltas (Aragones et al., 2015; Aspe et al., \r\n2016; Loizidou et al., 2016; Danovaro et al., 2018). Engineering plays a \r\nmajor role for coastal adaptation too, through breakwaters, seawalls, \r\ndykes, surge barriers and submerged breakwaters (Sancho-Garcia \r\net al., 2013; Becchi et al., 2014; Balouin et al., 2015; Masria et al., 2015; \r\nTsoukala et  al., 2015; Bouvier et  al., 2017). Many engineering-based \r\ncoastal adaptation imply large residual impacts on coastal ecosystems \r\n(high confidence) (Micheli et  al., 2013; Masria et  al., 2015; Cooper \r\net al., 2016; Bonnici et al., 2018)"


id: d09edf586be78f8b1cb4878a79c21dff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30348
content:
" A sea surface height control dam at \r\nthe Strait of Gibraltar has been proposed for mitigating sea level rise \r\nin the Mediterranean, but this would likely involve major impacts on \r\necosystems and fisheries (Gower, 2015)."


id: 6ab5323617a2a07ec0a458f09e508115
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14404
content:
"In the agriculture sector, improved efficiency of irrigation practices can \r\nbe achieved by changing surface water irrigation for other techniques \r\nand shifting to more sustainable practices (Mrabet et  al., 2012; \r\nBenlhabib et al., 2014; Boari et al., 2015; Cosic et al., 2015; Guilherme \r\net al., 2015; Iglesias and Garrote, 2015; Cantore et al., 2016; Triberti \r\net al., 2016; AbdAllah et al., 2018; Billen et al., 2018; Iglesias et al., \r\n2018; Malek and Verburg, 2018; Vargas and Paneque, 2019). Overall, \r\nthe region could save 35% of water resources by improved irrigation \r\ntechniques (Fader et al., 2016). However, maladaptive drip irrigation \r\nsubsidies and developments can also result in the unsustainable use \r\nof groundwater resources and excessive agriculture intensification, \r\nindicating the need for careful strategic planning, regulation and \r\nmonitoring of these options (Venot et al., 2017)"


id: ddcc9ae0d249592f3b6f26e0fe2dd67b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32393
content:
" In the livestock sector, \r\nadaptation options for heat wave-induced mortality of animals include \r\nthe choice of more resistant genetic provenances (Rojas-Downing \r\net al., 2017)."


id: ffbd4b3c853f4b0e9950a86aad5bb6c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37779
content:
"Regional adaptation initiatives occur in a highly asymmetric geographic \r\ncontext characterised by contrasting demographic, environmental and \r\nsocioeconomic trends in the southern, eastern and northern parts of the \r\nMediterranean Basin (Pausas and Fernandez-Munoz, 2012). Adaptation \r\nplans in Mediterranean countries are also limited by a lack of effective \r\nregional governance schemes (with the partial exception of European \r\ncountries subject to the European directives and strategies), hampering \r\nthe effective implementation of regionally harmonised adaptation \r\nstrategies, plans and quantitative targets (UNEP/MAP, 2016; Sachs \r\net al., 2019). Adaptation to sea level rise is essentially limited by social \r\nbarriers along urban coasts in the northwest Mediterranean at present \r\n(Hinkel et al., 2018), while the adaptation dilemma involving economic \r\nand financial barriers is greater in peri-urban, rural and natural areas, \r\nas well as in the southern and eastern Mediterranean"


id: 63cb1bf5cd2a0ba6d2ab5345d2955789
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13269
content:
" In addition, \r\nlimited regional monitoring of risks and adaptation options hampers \r\nadaptation in domains and sectors (Cramer et al., 2018)."


id: 2be4ac8c24a1f74c0fda804f4b650a85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4332
content:
"In the Mediterranean region, vulnerability is strongly affected by \r\nequity: people most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are \r\nthe elderly, especially women (Iniguez et  al., 2016; Achebak et  al., \r\n2018) and children, who are often strongly affected by climate change \r\n(Watts et  al., 2019). An increase of heat waves poses a significant \r\nhealth risk especially for young children living in urban areas (UNICEF, \r\n2014; Perera, 2017; Roye, 2017) and for elderly women, in particular \r\nthose affected by other conditions such as respiratory diseases (Sellers, \r\n2016; Achebak et al., 2018). Children and future generations in eastern \r\nMediterranean countries are those most at risk of food insecurity, in \r\nboth quantity and quality (Prosperi et al., 2014). In the region, many \r\nchildren are particularly vulnerable due to scarcity of drinking water \r\nand food, aggravated by droughts and flooding (Philipsborn and Chan, \r\n2018)"


id: 22848e2ff4339221a57dfb7373993df2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2882
content:
" The potential for adaptation to and preparation for vector\u0002borne diseases and other health risks, expected to increase with \r\nclimate change, differs among Mediterranean countries (Negev et al., \r\n2015). Climate change in the Mediterranean region also impacts some \r\ngroups disproportionately (e.g., poor farmers, urban migrants, seasonal \r\nworkers) and livelihoods (Waha et al., 2017), favouring mobility and \r\nmigration (Nori and Farinella, 2020)."


id: 8f7a4d34d812303ea66479c0f7c1b98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20119
content:
"Without drastic mitigation of climate change, sea level rise is projected to accelerate and will require additional \r\ncoastal engineering protection projects (e.g., dykes or groynes). Despite their efficiency for the few next decades, \r\nthese engineering options have also adverse impacts for coastal ecosystems and may not ensure that the recreative \r\nvalue of Mediterranean coasts can be sustained (see Box 13.1 on Venice on the movable barriers protecting the \r\nVenice Lagoon). Among nature-based solutions, there are immediate benefits of restoring dunes and coastal \r\nwetlands to restore a buffer zone between coastal infrastructure and the sea and therefore reduce coastal risks \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3). Yet, this kind of protection is not feasible everywhere, particularly in urbanised \r\nareas, where it faces its limits"


id: 74cbc564f72c6224aebda1a1f943f3d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15970
content:
" The limits for adaptation in the Mediterranean to further acceleration of sea level \r\nrise have stimulated ideas of large-scale geoengineering projects such as surface height control dams at Gibraltar. \r\nHowever, such projects come with unknown risks for humans and ecosystems."


id: 70a179404f334fa9ccdcdc06684f212a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15339
content:
"Observed changes in seasonality (timing and extent) are \r\nnegatively affecting mountain winter tourism and recreation \r\n(high confidence) and variably affect tourism and recreation \r\nactivities in other seasons (medium confidence). For winter \r\nactivities such as skiing, diminishing snow at lower elevations has \r\nchallenged operating conditions (medium confidence), increasing the \r\ndemand for and dependence on snow management measures such \r\nas snow-making (high confidence). Climate-induced hazards are \r\nnegatively affecting some climbing, mountaineering and hiking routes \r\n(medium confidence). In some regions, options to change routes or \r\nshift seasons to reduce hazard exposure have been employed as \r\nadaptation strategies, with variable outcomes (medium confidence). In \r\nsome cases, higher temperatures and extreme heat conditions at lower \r\nelevations have made some mountain destinations more appealing, \r\nincreasing the potential for summer visitation demand (medium \r\nconfidence)"


id: 192b530601382f48255684435744a028
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1453
content:
"Changes in climate over short distances in mountains are reflected \r\nin large ecological gradients. AR5 reported new evidence that plant \r\nspecies of mid and low elevations were starting to colonise higher \r\nelevations in mountains. Since AR5, new studies have been published \r\n(e.g., Steinbauer et  al., 2018; Payne et  al., 2020), including in some \r\npreviously less well studied areas such as the Andes (e.g., Morueta\u0002Holme et al., 2015; Baez et al., 2016) and parts of Asia (e.g., Telwala \r\net al., 2013; Artemov, 2018). There is now high confidence that many \r\nplant species' distributions have shifted to higher elevations in recent \r\ndecades, consistent with climatic warming (Sections 2.4.2, 10.4.2.1.1, \r\n13.3.1.1). In recent years publications have also started to show similar \r\ntrends in some animal species, including birds (Freeman et al., 2018; \r\nBani et al., 2019; Lehikoinen et al., 2019) and snails (Baur and Baur, \r\n2013)"


id: bd52ea0890a70013e56d921369949c3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27350
content:
" Other climatic variables besides temperature can also affect \r\nelevational limits of species (Section  2.4.2) and sometimes in ways \r\nthat contrast with temperature, for example increasing precipitation \r\ncan allow some species to occur at lower elevations in dry climates \r\n(Crimmins et al., 2011; Coals et al., 2018). Tsai et al. (2015) reported \r\nlarge changes in the montane bird community in Taiwan, which they \r\nlink to changes in weather patterns, including more severe typhoons. \r\nChanges in the amplitude and frequency of bank vole population \r\nwaves in the Ilmen Nature Reserve in the Middle Urals can be linked to \r\nlonger frost-free periods (Kiseleva, 2020)."


id: 8d57a0b14a4ea915bf05fc06ce021567
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19757
content:
"Changes in community composition are also happening within \r\necosystem types. Duque et  al. (2015) showed a change in the \r\ncomposition of northern Andean forests, and Feeley et  al. (2013) \r\nshowed such a change in that of forests up to 2800 m in Costa Rica. \r\nIn both cases the proportion of species adapted to warmer conditions \r\nincreased, driven primarily by patterns of mortality, indicating that \r\nthe changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather \r\nthan range shifts or expansions. An analysis of 200 forest inventory \r\nplots in the Andes likewise indicated a widespread, though not \r\nubiquitous, thermophilisation of tree species' composition (Fadrique \r\net al., 2018). Within a period of 8 years (2003-2010), significant shifts \r\nin communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds were found \r\nin Switzerland (Roth et  al., 2014)"


id: 73188e6b09ba81246bbaca830444ca72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15720
content:
" At lower elevations, communities \r\nof all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, \r\ncorresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in \r\nplant, butterfly and bird communities respectively. However, rates of \r\ncommunity change decreased with elevation in plants and butterflies, \r\nwhile bird communities shifted towards warm-dwelling species at all \r\nelevations (Roth et al., 2014)."


id: 919de8a2ca403d92b82349b0be279ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 20451
content:
"The risks posed by non-native species may increase with climate \r\nchange (Carboni et al., 2018; Shrestha et al., 2018; Thapa et al., 2018). \r\nKoide et al. (2017) found that non-native plant species on Hawaii were \r\nmoving to higher elevations, whereas native species' distributions \r\nwere retracting at their lower elevational limit. Dainese et al. (2017) \r\nfound that non-native plant species spread to higher elevations \r\napproximately twice as fast as native species. Following recent climate \r\nwarming, invasive Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides\r\n(Poaceae) bamboo species in Japan have shifted northwards and \r\nupslope in the last three decades (Takano et al., 2017). New evidence \r\nhas shown that variations in microclimate, with topography and cold \r\ngroundwater seeps, can provide micro-refugia small areas of locally \r\nsuitable conditions where cold-adapted species can survive (Bramer \r\net al., 2018; Muhlfeld et al., 2020) (Section 2.6.2)"


id: fd30c11ba19316847ccef9c253ba224d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 37348
content:
" Some alpine species \r\nhave thrived in recent years, and the range of microclimates may partly \r\nexplain this (Rumpf et al., 2018)."


id: 8b06912f22c03d6f67c50eddf5677c36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 19406
content:
"Treeline elevation is linked to temperature (Paulsen and Korner, 2014) \r\nbut may also be affected by water supply (Sigdel et al., 2018; Lu et al., \r\n2021) and land management. A recent summary of treeline shifts \r\nworldwide found that 67% of studied alpine treelines had shifted \r\nupwards while 33% remained stable (based on 142 published studies), \r\nand 88.8% of the 143 undisturbed alpine treelines across the Northern \r\nHemisphere had shifted upwards (Hansson et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2021). \r\nSince AR5, new evidence of shifting treeline ecotones has emerged \r\nfor a wide variety of species in different locations, including in Siberia \r\n(Pospelova et al., 2017), various parts of the Ural Mountains (Shiyatov \r\nand Mazepa, 2015; Zolotareva and Zolotarev, 2017; Sannikov et al., \r\n2018), in the Canadian Rocky Mountains (Trant et al., 2020) and the \r\nHimalaya (Tiwari and Joshi, 2015; Chakraborty et  al., 2016; Gaire, \r\n2016; Yadava et al., 2017)"


id: 3f6f26b4b62f64a04cadfa3db8107056
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 7365
content:
" Recent studies of treelines that have not \r\nor hardly shifted include those in the Himalaya (Singh et  al., 2015; \r\nSigdel et al., 2018), eastern Tibetan Plateau (Wang et al., 2020) and \r\nthe Andes (Lutz et al., 2014). Migration rates are not proceeding as fast \r\nas warming rates, implying other processes also limit treeline ecotone \r\nresponse (e.g., Sigdel et al., 2020; Lu et al., 2021)."


id: 1bc5ad7ae7d73e246f5b8307351022d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1829
content:
"Mountain river systems are especially sensitive to and affected by \r\nclimate change and continuing anthropogenic disturbance, including \r\nwater pollution, hydropower development, water withdrawals \r\nfor agriculture and human consumption and biodiversity loss and \r\necosystem changes (high confidence) (Honda and Durigan, 2016; \r\nEncalada et al., 2019; Bissenbayeva et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2021). The \r\neffects of climate and cryosphere change in mountains on downstream \r\nwater and river systems have been studied and quantified for many \r\nregions worldwide (Barnett et al., 2005; Huss, 2011; Lutz et al., 2014; \r\nO'Neel et al., 2015; Huss and Hock, 2018). Comprehensive approaches \r\nfocusing on both water demand and supply aspects provide regionally \r\nor locally specified information on water availability, scarcity and \r\nsecurity (Buytaert et al., 2014; Drenkhan et al., 2015; Brunner et al., \r\n2019) (Chapter 4)"


id: 4112fe8548adbf92dec1027b75db6791
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 7631
content:
" Present and potential future hotspot regions of \r\nwater scarcity that rely heavily on mountainous water sources include \r\nCentral Asia, South Asia, tropical and subtropical western South \r\nAmerica and southwestern North America (robust evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Kummu et  al., 2016; Biemans et  al., 2019; Immerzeel \r\net al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: a91e6d4193425e1f3029c4411b7f28df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 24136
content:
"Both small-scale interventions (e.g., livestock grazing in sensitive \r\nhigh-elevation wetlands) and high-investment interventions (e.g., \r\nhydropower dams and plants) in upstream regions can strongly affect \r\nwater availability, river connectivity, biodiversity and catchment \r\nmanagement (Anderson et al., 2018; Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, \r\n2018; Encalada et al., 2019) and are often contested and have led to \r\nconflict (medium evidence, high agreement) (Drenkhan et  al., 2015; \r\nFrench et  al., 2015). Climate change often exacerbates tensions or \r\nconflicts between different users over water at local, national and \r\ntransboundary or regional scales, and many tensions and social or \r\npolitical conflicts are documented, especially in seasonally dry regions, \r\nwhere large power inequalities exist among users, where clear and \r\nestablished regulations are lacking, and especially in transboundary \r\nsettings (e.g., Central Asia, Hindu Kush Himalaya [HKH], Andes) (Carey \r\net al"


id: d3dceed2e587e2e1dbae7902b6068693
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vector_id: 30855
content:
", 2014; Bocchiola et al., 2017; Yapiyev et al., 2017; Hock et al., \r\n2019; Mukherji et al., 2019)."


id: 4cc3823340e55d39ba3d0c92e5f02c12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 9504
content:
"Many mountain regions have one or more cryosphere components \r\n(glaciers, permafrost and perennial or seasonal snow), and the \r\nmountain cryosphere is among the natural systems most sensitive \r\nto climate change worldwide (high confidence). The SROCC assessed \r\na decline in all cryosphere components due to climate change over \r\nrecent decades, i.e., for low-elevation snow cover (high confidence), \r\npermafrost (high confidence) and glaciers (very high confidence) (Hock \r\net al., 2019). More recent studies using globally more complete data \r\nsets show a considerably higher glacier mass loss (267 +-16 Gt yr-1) for \r\n2000-2019 as compared to a (very likely2\r\n) range of 123 +-24 Gt yr-1\r\nfor 2006-2015 in SROCC, with a mass loss acceleration of 48 +-16 Gt \r\nyr-1 per decade over 2000-2019 (Hugonnet et al., 2021)"


id: 11540eb1862ec48d5cbdc7345cca308b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 207
content:
" Assessment \r\nconclusions in SROCC found with high confidence that glacier \r\nshrinkage and snow cover changes over the past two decades have \r\nled to changes in the amount and timing of runoff in many mountain \r\nregions (Hock et al., 2019)."


id: 3132b78c5f2074507b972d31f9c8684c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 5159
content:
"Montane and sub-alpine ecosystems have variable ecological responses to fire that are ultimately influenced by long-term, historical \r\nfire regimes and the evolutionary forces that have governed post-fire regeneration strategies of the biota. Two contrasting strategies in \r\ntemperate forests are illustrated here. SE Australian mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests are adapted to a high-severity fire regime, \r\nconsisting of infrequent (>100 years), large stand-replacing wildfires (Bowman et al., 2016). Mountain ash is a long-lived obligate seeder \r\nbut is slow to reach reproductive maturity (>20 years) (Bowman et al., 2016). As such, natural post-fire regeneration takes decades to \r\ncenturies to recover to pre-fire conditions, and if fire reoccurs before reproductive maturity is reached, the species can be eliminated"


id: 44e2c6eef1a2f29b878638244c94c78d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 8264
content:
" By \r\ncontrast, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the SW United States have evolved with a low- or mixed-severity fire regime, where \r\nfire is frequent (5-25 years), of low intensity, less likely to kill dominant stands and, thus, allow faster post-fire recovery (Prichard et al., \r\n2017). However, post-fire recovery times in this ecosystem are also becoming longer due to a century of effective fire suppression, shifting \r\nthe fire regime to one which is more infrequent, of high intensity, extensive and stand replacing (Prichard et al., 2017)."


id: 1d7585a94112415a50932baab78ef973
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2078
content:
"Above the treeline, fire is less common than in foothill forests. Post-fire recovery times also tend to be shorter (Williams et al., 2008; \r\nCamac et al., 2013; Verrall and Pickering, 2019) because of the dual influences of low flammability traits coupled with the fact that \r\nmost alpine plant species exhibit strong resprouting strategies that have evolved in response to harsh climate conditions (Korner, 2003). \r\nHowever, fires in alpine treeless landscapes can still have long-term and catastrophic impacts on fire-sensitive vegetation types such \r\nas groundwater-dependent wetlands dominated by hygrophilous plants and peat soils (De Roos et al., 2018). Similar impacts can be \r\nsevere on long-lived, slow-growing vegetation such as coniferous heathlands (Bowman et al., 2019) and highly restricted and threatened \r\nfauna (e.g., mountain pygmy possum) that depend on these plant communities (Gibson et al., 2018)"


id: 942ad5ed051a1051877c503fd034010a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 20823
content:
" Such fires have even been found \r\nto significantly impact sub-alpine treeline mortality rates (Fairman et al., 2017) and in some cases have resulted in treelines shifting to \r\nlower elevations (e.g., Hemp, 2005)."


id: 17ca1de59773e8e39eb60ba14e8fa523
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1240
content:
"The long-term implications of a warmer global climate, coupled with more frequent and/or severe fires in mountain ecosystems, are \r\nexpected to be transformative for mountain biota. Fire-sensitive montane forests, such as Australia's alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), \r\nare expected to become highly susceptible to population collapse and local extinction as intervals between fire events contract and \r\nbecome too short for species to reach reproductive maturity (Bowman et al., 2014; Enright et al., 2015)--an impact that will likely be \r\nfurther exacerbated by recruitment failure caused by post-fire drought and moisture deficiencies (Davies et al., 2019; Halofsky et al., 2020; \r\nRodman et al., 2020). Fire and climate change are also likely to act synergistically in mountainous ecosystems, via positive feedbacks that \r\nincrease fire frequency by changing vegetation composition to more flammable fuel types, thereby increasing landscape susceptibility \r\nto future fire (Camac et al"


id: f1fc31bf2afa6b57b25d8c6b7fdfaa85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 35599
content:
", 2017; Tepley et al., 2018; Zylstra, 2018; Lucas and Harris, 2021). More frequent fires in these ecosystems will \r\nalso exacerbate native and exotic species invasions (Catford et al., 2009; McDougall et al., 2011; Gottfried et al., 2012; Kueffer et al., \r\n2013), faunal population declines (Ward et al., 2020), poor air quality (de la Barrera et al., 2018; Burke et al., 2021) and soil erosion and \r\nlandslide risk (de la Barrera et al., 2018) and reduce freshwater catchment volumes and quality (Rust et al., 2018; Niemeyer et al., 2020), \r\nall of which will impact negatively on human health and well-being (Ebi et al., 2021)."


id: 1e83df1f7cd0cc421789cea50e080366
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2241
content:
"With respect to hydropower, mountains play a unique role in the \r\nproduction of renewable energy for large downstream populations, but \r\nit also comes with important trade-offs affecting mountain ecosystems \r\nand populations (high confidence) (Farinotti et  al., 2019; Viviroli \r\net al., 2020; Vaidya et al., 2021). Climate change requires adaptation \r\nin the hydropower sector; for instance, some advocate for increased \r\nwater storage in dams and the importance of mountains for pumped \r\nhydropower storage systems (Gurung et al., 2016; Hunt et al., 2020), \r\nwhile others emphasise adaptive water management (Gaudard et al., \r\n2014; Caruso et al., 2017b). An example is the multi-purpose use of \r\nwater strategies where water management storage is designed to \r\naccommodate different uses, including hydropower, agriculture and \r\nflood risk reduction (Haeberli et  al., 2016a; Drenkhan et  al., 2019) \r\n(Section 12.6.3)"


id: 2dc4d9a87d4db542ad118477863d673
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4639
content:
" Hydropower is also especially vulnerable to glacier \r\nand snow decline (Schaefli et al., 2019) and is subject to risks from \r\nextreme events (Rangecroft et  al., 2013; Schwanghart et  al., 2016; \r\nMishra et al., 2020; Shugar et al., 2021), social and political opposition \r\n(Ahlers et  al., 2015; Diaz et  al., 2017) and the resulting financial \r\nuncertainty for hydropower investors. There is still limited evidence\r\non how climate change impacts wind, solar and biomass energy \r\nproduction and their use."


id: b3d09bca675fe172af892a60f4bc69f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25807
content:
"Climate change and its associated impacts on multiple ecosystem \r\nservices and related products (timber production, carbon \r\nsequestration, biodiversity and protection against natural hazards) \r\nhave been observed across European mountains, for example in the \r\ncentral Iberian Mountains (Spain), Western and Eastern Alps (France, \r\nAustria) and Dinaric Mountains (Slovenia) (Mina et al., 2017). Dumont \r\net  al. (2015) demonstrated that climate change negatively affects \r\nforage nitrogen (N) content by 8% but increases total non-structural \r\ncarbohydrate content by 25% in European mountains. Positive impacts \r\nhave been reported on mushroom productivity in the mountains of \r\nSpain (Karavani et  al., 2018) (Section  5.7.3.3), yet negative impacts \r\nhave been reported on the Ophiocordyceps in the Himalayan region \r\n(Hopping et  al., 2018), as well as on apple production in Himachal \r\nPradesh, India, which declined by 9.4 t per hectare in the past two \r\ndecades (Das, 2021)"


id: a6b61d7a6348f3cd10b84e40c720793e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23756
content:
" Shifts in the richness of crop wild relatives from \r\nsouth to north and an increase in the numbers of threatened taxa with \r\nan increase of 1.5degC and 3degC temperature rise have been observed in \r\nEuropean mountains (Phillips et al., 2017)."


id: 4cd6a9bb9923e2f0fc21bdd9572af967
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9517
content:
"Medicinal and aromatic plants and their secondary metabolites are \r\nalso observed to be affected by climate change (medium confidence) \r\n(Das et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2019a). Phenological changes like early \r\nflowering and reduced vegetative phase are negatively affecting the \r\nproductivity of such plants (Harish et  al., 2012; Gaira et  al., 2014; \r\nMaikhuri et  al., 2018). While increasing atmospheric temperature \r\nand CO2 are reported to improve the biomass of Gynostemma \r\npentaphyllum (Chang et  al., 2016) (Section  5.7.3.3), they adversely \r\naffect its antioxidant compounds/activity, health-promoting properties \r\nand phytochemical content (Gairola et al., 2010; Das et al., 2016; Kumar \r\net  al., 2020)"


id: 69bb478700b26421db0f9dec8165635a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 14233
content:
" Experimental trials have shown that when medicinal \r\nplants are stressed by drought, phytochemical content increases, either \r\nby a decrease in biomass or by an increase in the actual production of \r\nmetabolites (medium confidence) (Selmar and Kleinwachter, 2013; Al\u0002Gabbiesh et al., 2015). The strong effects of climatic and non-climatic "


id: 590bb521b1015aacdb3b1b9e29aa78d2
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vector_id: 11504
content:
"Mountain settlements and people are globally distributed and \r\nrepresent a significant proportion of the total global population that is \r\nexposed to the effects of climate change (Section CCP5.1, SMCCP5.1). \r\nCities with one or several million inhabitants located in mountainous \r\nenvironments or at high elevations are predominantly found in Latin \r\nAmerica (e.g., El Alto and La Paz, Bolivia; Quito, Ecuador; Mexico \r\nCity, Mexico; and Bogota, Colombia), Asia (e.g., Kabul, Afghanistan; \r\nKathmandu, Nepal; Srinagar and Dehradun, India; Peshawar and \r\nQuetta, Pakistan; and Xining and Kunming, China) and Africa (e.g., \r\nHarare, Zimbabwe; and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) (Wang and Lu, 2018; \r\nBalderas Torres et al., 2021; Ehrlich et al., 2021). Mountain regions are \r\nalso host to many settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants \r\n(Alfthan et  al., 2016)"


id: f0b086677c6af3e47c51dafe3d35d600
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vector_id: 35365
content:
" In many cases, particularly in developing \r\ncountries, portions of the population also reside in informal and low\u0002income settlements (French et al., 2021), where rates of poverty and \r\ninequality exacerbate people's vulnerability and exposure to climate\u0002related hazards such as landslides (Alfthan et  al. 2018) (Section \r\nCCP5.2.5.1), environmental pollution or even pandemic diseases \r\n(Marazziti et al., 2021)."


id: 128f546fa9ffbac942297814de875f80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 415
content:
"Floods, debris flows, landslides and avalanches are the most frequent \r\nhazards affecting the highest number of people in mountain regions \r\n(medium confidence) (Staubli et  al., 2018). Landslides count among \r\nthe deadliest hazards globally, with over 150,000 reported fatalities \r\nfor the period 1995-2014 (Haque et al., 2019). There is high confidence\r\nthat the number of fatalities from landslides has increased globally \r\nover the past 20 years (Froude and Petley, 2018; Haque et al., 2019), \r\nbut there is limited evidence that this is due to changes in landslide \r\nevent frequency and/or magnitude. Infrastructure expansion on \r\nunstable terrain can increase disaster risk (Zimmermann and Keiler, \r\n2015; Huggel et al., 2019; Kirschbaum et al., 2019; Schauwecker et al., \r\n2019; Terzi et al., 2019; Motschmann et al., 2020a; Shugar et al., 2021)"


id: 20fba37a5e0334f500134bd9796f7640
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2622
content:
" \r\nA study from western Nepal concludes that the exposure of people and \r\ninfrastructure to hazards has been the main cause of disasters (Munoz\u0002Torrero Manchado et al., 2021). Decreasing numbers of fatalities from \r\ndisasters resulting from decreasing vulnerabilities have been reported \r\nin Europe and North America (Section 13.2.2.1) (Gariano and Guzzetti, \r\n2016; Strouth and McDougall, 2021). Evidence from Africa suggests \r\nthat disasters from climate-induced natural hazards in mountain areas \r\nare often due to droughts, pests and changes in rainfall and associated \r\nimpacts on smallholder farmers' agricultural livelihoods (Shikuku et al., \r\n2017)."


id: 5bd8ae72cc58d292353ba194aabacbed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11965
content:
"In many mountain regions, particularly in developing countries, the \r\nincreasing urban population has put considerable pressure on water \r\nservices and basic amenities for urban dwellers (Singh et al., 2021), \r\nfor example in cities such as La Paz (Kinouchi et al., 2019), which are \r\nregions already under pressure due to the negative effects of climate \r\nchange, coupled with poor water availability and governance (Chapter \r\n4; CCP5.2.2.1; FAQ CCP5.1; Hock et al. 2019). In many areas of the HKH \r\nregion, water demand far exceeds municipal supply, and people cope \r\nwith water insecurity in a variety of ways (Bharti et al., 2020; Sharma \r\net al., 2020; Singh et al., 2020), such as by resorting to interbasin water \r\ntransfers and deep pumping, to supply their water needs (Ojha et al., \r\n2020)"


id: 58bb5608d683ece56607713be21897ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11454
content:
" Additionally, influxes of migrants, tourists and retirees, combined \r\nwith the growth of the incumbent population, place considerable stress \r\non urban infrastructures that must supply adequate clean water and \r\nprovide for sewage disposal (Prakash and Molden, 2020), which is also \r\nobservable in other regions (Chapter 4; Section 6.4.7; Case Study 6.1 \r\nin Chapter 6). Energy provision in and around mountain settlements \r\nis another key sector affected by climate-related impacts (Hock et al., \r\n2019; CCP5.2.2.2), which bears relevance for the adaptation prospects \r\nfor urban mountain settlements (medium confidence)."


id: 628ef20b1d3bbed7ee95cd2b4206992e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13075
content:
"Most adaptation responses to natural hazards in mountain regions are \r\nreactive to specific climate stimuli or post-disaster recovery (robust \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (McDowell et  al., 2019; Rasul et  al., \r\n2020). Hard structural measures such as dikes, dam reservoirs and \r\nembankments have been widely employed to contain hazards, along \r\nwith early warning systems, zonation and land management (Box 4.1, \r\n10.4.4.5, 12.5.3 and 13.2.2). Awareness raising, preparedness and \r\ndisaster response plans are increasingly used in the context of more \r\nunpredictable hazard trends (see Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r\n17) (Allen et al., 2016, 2018; Hovelsrud et al., 2018). Ecosystem-based \r\nadaptations (EBAs) are widely implemented to mitigate risks from \r\nshallow landslides (e.g., afforestation and reforestation and improved \r\nforest management), floods (e.g., river restoration and renaturation) \r\n(Renaud et al., 2016; Klein et al., 2019b) and droughts (e.g"


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vector_id: 31639
content:
"Climate change impacts have been documented in mountains on all \r\ncontinents. A wide range of human and natural systems have been \r\naffected by climate change to date, including the cryosphere, water \r\nresources, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, tourism, \r\nenergy production, infrastructure, health and life, migration, disasters \r\nand community and cultural values. The confidence levels for the \r\ndetection of impacts are generally in the range of medium to high. The \r\ncontribution of climate change to detected impacts varies depending \r\non the affected system and on climatic and non-climatic drivers. The \r\nhighest levels of confidence for the attribution of detected impacts \r\nto anthropogenic climate change are related to the cryosphere. More \r\ngenerally, those impacts are more strongly driven by increasing \r\ntemperatures and show higher confidence for attribution than \r\nthose impacts driven mainly by precipitation changes"


id: ece08d33498cf41bba93853f98d9802c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 34747
content:
" The level of \r\ncontribution of climate change to observed impacts is predominantly \r\nmedium or high, indicating the high sensitivity of natural and human \r\nsystems in mountains to climate change. Furthermore, the vast majority \r\nof detected impacts imply negative impacts on natural and human \r\nsystems (high confidence)."


id: c35b3f67bc5d2bdcbef8534d5a2378d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 28303
content:
"Figure CCP5.4 |  Synthesis of detection and attribution of impacts of anthropogenic climate change on different natural and human systems in mountain \r\nregions. For each system and region assessed, the level of confidence for detection and for attribution to anthropogenic climate change is indicated. Also indicated is how strong \r\nthe contribution of climate change is to the observed changes, considering climatic and non-climatic causal factors. Observed impacts were analysed in terms of negative impacts \r\n(e.g., economic or non-economic damages, losses, contribution to increasing risks for society), where the numbers refer to the percentage of references indicating negative impacts \r\nfor a given impact. The percentage of local community perception indicates the percentage of all literature references for a given system and region that account for local knowledge"


id: 3707833bc80968855ebb7a9e66543413
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6048
content:
" \r\nThe number of references refers to the total number of literature references considered for an impact on a specific system and region. 'Not assessed' refers to limited evidence in \r\nthe literature (SMCCP5.2 and Table SMCCP5.5-5.14)."


id: 84d20dcffd3cc0ac8513f91c84a253dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 18422
content:
"Water resources in mountains and dependent lowlands will continue \r\nto be strongly impacted by climate change throughout the 21st \r\ncentury (high confidence). The difference in impacts will be particularly \r\nstrong in regions that greatly depend on glacier and snowmelt and, in \r\npronounced dry seasons (high confidence), in regions including Central \r\nAsia, South Asia, tropical and subtropical western South America and \r\nsouthwestern North America (Huss and Hock, 2018; Hock et al., 2019; \r\nImmerzeel et al., 2020). Glaciers are expected to continue to lose mass \r\nthroughout the 21st century, with higher mass loss under high emission \r\nscenarios (AR6 WGI Chapter 9 (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)). Many low\u0002elevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their \r\ntotal mass at 1.5degC GWL (high confidence) (Marzeion et  al., 2018; \r\nVuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., 2019; Zekollari et al., 2020; Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021) (WGI 9.5)"


id: 19f838f924bbdf4fdc5f1e608754bf3a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 1554
content:
" For tropical and mid-latitude mountains, around \r\nhalf of the current ice mass can be preserved under low-emission \r\nscenarios, while between two-thirds and up to more than 90% will be \r\nlost under high emission scenarios compared to the 2000s (medium \r\nconfidence) (Schauwecker et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., \r\n2019; Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021) (WGI 9.5). Significant differences in \r\nimpacts between the emission scenarios have also been assessed for \r\ndeclines in snow depth or mass at lower elevations [10 to 40% for \r\nRCP2.6 and 50 to 90% for RCP 8.5 by the end of the century (Hock \r\net al., 2019)]. However, limitations in long-term climate, glaciological \r\nand hydrological monitoring data add uncertainty to the current \r\nunderstanding and adaptation support, for example, when peak \r\nwater is reached in different mountain catchments (Salzmann et al., \r\n2014; Hock et  al., 2019)"


id: 6a79e44568d2a5427a4f1bcf91e2899c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 14362
content:
" Furthermore, context-specific sociocultural \r\nand economic factors can magnify or moderate impacts related to \r\nhydrological change (McDowell et al., 2021a)."


id: e89bc4cefbd8de5d01340bdd8fa5a355
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34105
content:
"The dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources \r\nwill grow by mid-century across several climate and socioeconomic \r\nscenarios, and several seasonally dry or semiarid mountain regions \r\n(e.g., parts of South Asia, North America) are projected to be highly \r\ndependent on such resources (medium confidence) (Viviroli et al., 2020) \r\n(Figure  CCP5.2). Changing sediment, nutrient and pollutant flows \r\ndue to climatic and non-climatic drivers will impact populations and \r\neconomic sectors (medium evidence, high agreement). Hydropower in \r\nall mountain regions will experience higher fluxes of water and sediment \r\nin some seasons but lower water flow with demand from other water \r\nuses (e.g., irrigation) (Chevallier et al., 2011) in other seasons (Beniston \r\nand Stoffel, 2014; Gaudard et al., 2014; Majone et al., 2016; Caruso \r\net al., 2017a, b; Patro et al., 2018)"


id: e7862c12a426e40c29aab7b98a40d378
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 33927
content:
" Recharge from groundwater and its \r\nbuffer function is expected to decrease in the longer term (Somers and \r\nMcKenzie, 2020). Glacier and snow depth or mass decline will impact \r\ncurrent hydropower facilities and production in various complex ways, \r\nrequiring changes in hydropower management, with further potential \r\nfor evidence-informed solutions (Gaudard et al., 2014; Schaefli, 2015; \r\nSchaefli et  al., 2019). On the other hand, deglaciation in mountain \r\nregions opens topographic space and, thus, potential for additional \r\nlong-term hydropower development and production (Haeberli et  al., \r\n2016a), with an estimated additional production of up to several \r\nhundred terawatt-hours per year, a potentially important contribution "


id: 77582069e506dc0b92a278936088e862
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16335
content:
"Climate change impacts on food, fibre and ecosystem products will be \r\nhighly variable across mountain regions (medium confidence) (Briner \r\net al., 2013; Rasul and Hussain, 2015; Mina et al., 2017; Palomo, 2017; \r\nSaid et al., 2019; Xenarios et al., 2019) (Sections 10.4, 12.3, 13.5 and \r\n14.4). In some regions, tree crops that are cultivated at certain elevations \r\nmay reach the limit of their agroclimatic plasticity, for instance for crop \r\ntypes that require winter chills and where projected growing conditions \r\nare too warm (Buerkert et al., 2020). In the European Alps, agricultural \r\nproduction in some areas may benefit from temperature rises, as total \r\nproductivity in grasslands is projected to increase (Mitter et al., 2015; \r\nGruneis et al., 2018), whereas some areas in Asia and South America \r\nheavily dependent on glacier- and snow-fed irrigation will be at risk of \r\nfood insecurity (Rasul and Molden, 2019). In a study in Eastern Pamir, \r\nMetrak et al"


id: b8517559df1a2d7a3f54b11aeada4c3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26529
content:
" (2017) found that summer droughts and water changes \r\nlead to functional transformations of the wetland ecosystems which \r\ncan affect food security of the local population. Climate change affects \r\nthe phenology of plants (Harish et al., 2012; Gaira et al., 2014; Maikhuri "


id: 5c720f083aa34389fb5f99e79f755784
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12060
content:
"Since SROCC (Hock et al., 2019), several new studies have addressed \r\nprojected impacts of future climate change on snow reliability in \r\nski resorts, complementing previous findings or bridging existing \r\nknowledge gaps for winter tourism. This includes, in particular, \r\nnew studies for China (An et  al., 2019; Fang et  al., 2019), showing \r\nthat average ski seasons are projected to shorten (-4 to -61% for \r\nRCP4.5; -6 to -79% RCP8.5 in the 2050s) along with increases \r\nin snow-making water demand (27 to 51% for RCP4.5; 46 to 80% \r\nfor RCP8.5 in the 2050s), with large differences across the country. \r\nChanges in future snow reliability are projected across Europe at the \r\nnational or pan-European scale (Demiroglu et al., 2019; Steiger and \r\nScott, 2020; Morin et al., 2021), highlighting strong contrasts at the \r\nlocal (across ski resort size and/or elevation range, or local social or \r\nenvironmental context) and continental scales"


id: 5f5b31aef39d52ee61f3dbbb9fd85ab7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12574
content:
" Higher-latitude and \r\nhigh-elevation locations generally exhibit delayed declines in snow \r\nreliability compared to lower-latitude and lower-elevation locations \r\n(high confidence), consistent with assessment conclusions reached \r\nin SROCC (Hock et al., 2019). In general, climate change impacts and \r\nrisks to ski tourism are found to be spatially heterogeneous, within and \r\nacross local and international markets, with potential for significant \r\ndisruptions to related socioeconomic sectors due to a growing \r\nmismatch between ski area supply and skier demand in the coming \r\ndecades (high confidence) (Fang et al., 2019; Hock et al., 2019; Steiger \r\net al., 2021). These disruptions are plausible, even though a fraction of \r\ncurrent ski resorts could technically operate in comparatively favourable \r\nlocations (elevation, latitude) and operating models (business models, \r\nsociocultural assets and conditions, governance) (Steiger et al., 2020)."


id: 717222717c2476e96b665573284d9b0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 15485
content:
"Future risk consequences considered to be severe include, for example, \r\nan increase of 10-20% compared to present of the population exposed \r\nto landslide activities in certain regions (e.g., High Mountain Asia) \r\n(Kirschbaum et al., 2020). This does not consider the expected increase \r\nin landslide activity relating to glacier and permafrost changes (Picarelli \r\net al., 2021, SROCC Chapter 2 (Hock et al., 2019)), so it is expected \r\nto be a conservative estimate. Other severe consequences are on \r\naverage a projected twofold increase in the number of people exposed \r\nto inland flooding between 2degC and 4degC, with the highest increases \r\nin South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America (high confidence\r\nin the direction of change and medium confidence in the absolute \r\nvalues because they are based on global studies) (Hirabayashi et al., \r\n2013; Allen et al., 2016; Arnell and Gosling, 2016; Zheng et al., 2021)"


id: c7338e02e974490e525e083185045598
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 28928
content:
" \r\nTherefore, high to very high risks are expected between 2degC and 4degC \r\nGWL in several mountain regions (red and violet shaded bars in Figure \r\nCCP5.5). Many regions are projected to experience high risks due to \r\nthe timing (potentially for severe consequences to happen sooner \r\nrather than later), the magnitude in terms of number of people and \r\ninfrastructure affected and the persistence of hazard conditions (Figure \r\nCCP5.5, AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)). Comparatively, \r\nmore severe risk consequences are expected under SSP3 and/or SSP4 \r\ngiven the high population projections in certain regions compared to \r\nSSP1 (medium confidence) (Kirschbaum et al., 2020) (Figure CCP5.1)."


id: 5c0f7c7799043d6d73de347936b1b577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 11993
content:
"Severe damage and disruptions to people and infrastructure from \r\nfloods are projected to increase in Northwestern South America \r\n(NWS), South Asia (SAS), Tibetan Plateau (TIB) and Central Asia (WCA) \r\nbetween 1.5degC and 3degC GWL, mainly driven by river floods and an \r\nincrease in the number of glacial lakes with high potential for outburst \r\n(high confidence) (Drenkhan et al., 2019; Motschmann et al., 2020b; \r\nFurian et al., 2021; Zheng et al., 2021). For example, the formation of \r\nnew lakes at the foot of steep icy peaks largely extends the hazard \r\nzones with respect to the earlier situation without lakes (Haeberli \r\net  al., 2016b). Projected changes in ice and snowmelt, as well as \r\nseasonal increases in extreme rainfall and permafrost thaw, will favour \r\nchain reactions and cascading processes, which can have devastating \r\ndownstream effects well beyond the site of the original event (high \r\nconfidence) (Cui and Jia, 2015; Beniston et al., 2018; Terzi et al"


id: 7d8cd947ecd591fd681452002b3c52ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17328
content:
", 2019; \r\nVaidya et al., 2019; Shugar et al., 2021). The incidence of disasters is \r\nprojected to increase in the future because some hazards will become \r\nmore pervasive, with an increase in the exposure of people and \r\ninfrastructure with future environmental and socioeconomic changes \r\neither contributing to reduce or enhance these disaster risks (medium \r\nconfidence) (Klein et al., 2019b)."


id: 6dea45104d2fec1dc5109b83af283552
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 14905
content:
"being water stressed will increase by 50% to 100% in areas already \r\ncurrently water stressed (Munia et al., 2020). Hotspot regions are those \r\nwith large lowland populations depending on essential mountain water \r\nresource contributions and include river catchments such as the Ganges, \r\nBrahmaputra, Meghna, Yangtze, Nile, Niger, Indus, Euphrates-Tigris or \r\nPearl (high confidence) (Viviroli et  al., 2020) (Figure  CCP5.6). Limited \r\ngovernance and integrated management of water resources, power and \r\ngender inequalities and level of disruption of local community practices \r\nalso contribute to making risks more severe (medium confidence) (Lynch, \r\n2012; Boelens, 2014; Wijngaard et al., 2018; Scott et al., 2019; Immerzeel \r\net  al., 2020). Consequences for hydropower are comparatively less \r\nsevere than for agriculture and domestic/municipal use, although this \r\ndepends on region and timing (see also Section 5.2.2.2)"


id: 7787b2107cdb8e84f80bce753e16f191
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16360
content:
" For example, a \r\nstudy shows low risk to hydropower production in High Mountain Asia \r\nuntil the end of the century and even for warming levels beyond 3degC \r\n(robust evidence, moderate agreement) (Mishra et al., 2020)."


id: 307f49824dbb896faa8c6eb281e1b3ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5059
content:
"Adaptation responses in mountains are mainly incremental changes \r\nfrom existing practices (high confidence) (McDowell et al., 2019, 2021b; \r\nRasul et al., 2020), signalling that the potential of current and planned \r\nadaptation responses to reduce risks in the future will not be adequate \r\nto mitigate high to very high risks. For example, measures to contain \r\nfloods or landslides (KR1) are designed with specific magnitudes and \r\ntypes in mind, often assuming stationarity of return periods (Montanari \r\nand Koutsoyiannis, 2014; Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016). In the case of \r\nevents showing decreasing return periods, risk mitigation standards \r\nneed to be elevated to provide for more protection in the future \r\n(Felder et al., 2018; Francois et al., 2019)"


id: c3c72ce1f9becee90bcc5c8930b8d09f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28371
content:
" The portfolio of adaptation \r\noptions to mitigate risks from changing water resources (KR2) is large \r\nbut challenging and includes integrated catchment management, \r\nimplementation of multiple use of water strategies, improved water \r\ngovernance (including community-based and participatory water \r\ngovernance), overcoming power inequalities among users and sectors \r\nand balancing economic pressure and sustainable development (high \r\nconfidence) (Bekchanov and Lamers, 2016; Yapiyev et al., 2017; Jalilov \r\net al., 2018; Drenkhan et al., 2019; Allen et al., 2020; Aggarwal et al., \r\n2021; Huang et al., 2021) (SMCCP5.3.2). There is limited evidence on \r\nthe effectiveness of adaptation responses to reduce the severity of \r\necosystem change (KR3) (also see Section 16.3.1)"


id: e822f48f2ed417c035e86916ec710eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Prevention rather \r\nthan control and eradication efforts can contribute to curbing biological \r\ninvasions of alien species in the short turn, whereas colonisation by \r\nnative trees following land use abandonment can be more effective \r\nin the long run (Carboni et  al., 2018). Reducing intensified grazing, \r\nagricultural expansion and conservation management in buffer zones \r\nof protected areas can limit the altitudinal range shift of endemic \r\nspecies (Kidane et al., 2019)."


id: d30d11b9e6bf95bf111404a2be547e0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30726
content:
"The risk of intangible losses and loss of cultural values is associated \r\nwith the decline of ice and snow cover and temperature increase, as \r\nwell as the increase in intangible harm from hazards such as floods \r\nand droughts (high agreement, medium evidence) (Diemberger et al., \r\n2015; Jurt et al., 2015; Vuille et al., 2018; Tschakert et al., 2019; Vander \r\nNaald, 2020). Losses are intangible because they characterise aspects \r\nwhich are difficult to quantify, i.e., loss of identity, loss of self-reliance, \r\nloss of rituals and traditions and place attachment (Allison, 2015; Baul \r\nand McDonald, 2015; Motschmann et al., 2020a; Schneiderbauer et al., \r\n2021). A global systematic analysis of case studies shows that this risk \r\nis more prevalent in the Andes, the Himalaya and the Alps (Tschakert \r\net  al., 2019). Often mentioned across studies is the loss of intrinsic \r\nmemories and culture related to changes in world heritage landscapes \r\nand iconic sites (Jurt et  al"


id: b9b851678597dabaf97252830d93aa4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
", 2015; Sherry et  al., 2018; Bosson et  al., \r\n2019). Changes in hazard landscapes are also reported to contribute \r\nto the loss of peace of mind and loss of well-being (Diemberger et al., \r\n2015). Overall, there is limited evidence but medium agreement that \r\nthe risk of intangible losses and the loss of cultural identity will rapidly \r\nincrease and that consequences will go from reversible damage to \r\nirreversible losses (Tschakert et al., 2019)."


id: dffed22b7b1a207db46ac5de986dfa52
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32734
content:
"Stakeholders such as local communities and government entities often \r\nprioritise different dimensions of climate-related risks (Lopez et  al., \r\n2017; McDowell et al., 2020). Adaptation initiatives that identify locally \r\nrelevant climate stressors and risks through knowledge co-production \r\nhave the potential to be more acceptable and effective (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Huggel et al., 2015; Muccione et al., 2016; \r\nAllen et al., 2018; Quincey et al., 2018; Balsiger et al., 2020; McDowell \r\net al., 2020, 2021b) (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17). However, \r\ntenable co-production requires recognition of the validity and integrity \r\nof diverse knowledges systems, including those held by Indigenous \r\nPeoples and local communities, as well as the provision of sufficient \r\ntime and resources for meaningful engagement between stakeholder \r\ngroups (Howarth and Monasterolo, 2016; Bremer and Meisch, 2017; \r\nSchoolmeester and Verbist, 2018; McDowell et  al., 2019; Ford et  al"


id: 747788d3b2476a4c1b8acdc93fdba77e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15922
content:
", \r\n2020). Power imbalances and knowledge politics continue to impede \r\nthe inclusion of historically underrepresented voices in adaptation \r\nplanning and action (Ojha et al., 2016; Mills-Novoa et al., 2017). Citizen \r\nscience plays an additional role in facilitating the inclusion of multiple \r\nknowledge traditions (Buytaert et  al., 2014; Dickerson-Lange et  al., \r\n2016; Tellman et al., 2016; Njue et al., 2019)."


id: a22f2e33058483de29a53b383b520e86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23085
content:
"With accelerating warming and compounding risks increasing above \r\n1.5degC warming, the need for climate resilient development in mountains \r\nis evident and intricately linked to achieving the SDGs and equity (high \r\nconfidence). In this context, Chapter 18 draws attention to climate \r\nresilient development pathways (CRDPs) as processes that strengthen \r\nsustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty and reduce \r\ninequalities while promoting fair and cross-scalar adaptation and \r\nmitigation. Pathways that strengthen climate-resilient sustainable \r\nmountain development are starting to receive attention (Chelleri \r\net  al., 2016; Trabacchi and Stadelmann, 2016; AlpineConvention, \r\n2021)"


id: 5e12d91357a957b02e0c3193f98ad402
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12330
content:
" This section treats four domains of emerging evidence related \r\nto climate resilient development in mountains: 1) climate actions that \r\nsupport both adaptation and mitigation, 2) Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local knowledge in support of climate resilient development, 3) \r\nclimate resilient development in climate policy and planning and 4) \r\nmainstreaming of climate action into development pathways."


id: 68efd0d553f7bf6efc9b6eac3514fe8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14101
content:
"There is growing evidence of the potential for coordination and \r\nmonitoring networks to overcome existing data deficiencies, to fill \r\nknowledge gaps and to streamline implementation, all of which \r\ncurrently impede adaptation in mountains (Salzmann et  al., 2014; \r\nMuccione et  al., 2016; Ryan and Bustos, 2019; McDowell et  al., \r\n2020; Shahgedanova et al., 2021; Thornton et al., 2021; Price et al., \r\nAccepted/In press). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that key \r\nconventions related to mountains, such as the Alpine Climate Board \r\n(SROCC section 2.4 (Hock et  al., 2019)), provide opportunities for \r\naccelerating adaptation efforts through mainstreaming responses \r\ninto other policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks (medium \r\nconfidence) (Balsiger et  al., 2020)"


id: 81ccd2568f41b541c20f7435d57dda8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17946
content:
" Regional cooperation among \r\ncountries and transboundary landscape and river basin governance \r\ninitiatives are an important mechanism for advancing adaptation in \r\nmountains (high agreement, medium evidence) (Molden et al., 2017; \r\nMishra et al., 2019; Balsiger et al., 2020), particularly as many mountain \r\nranges and mountain ecosystem services are transboundary in nature."


id: 885d86c312c58a95cb34ae090ec2e6fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Mountains are the home of many cultures and diverse Indigenous \r\nknowledge and local knowledge (systems), which can and do provide \r\nstrong support for place-based integrated adaptation and mitigation \r\nstrategies (Merino et  al., 2019). Indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge reinforce community adaptive capacity, yet governance \r\nstructures and processes, including the deliberate design and \r\nimplementation of climate policy, can constrain that capacity from \r\nbeing realised (high confidence) (Hill, 2013; McDowell et  al., 2014; \r\nWyborn et  al., 2015; Klepp and Chavez-Rodriguez, 2018; Lavorel \r\net  al., 2019). Communities, particularly poor and remote mountain \r\ncommunities, are vulnerable to climate change, and there is a need for \r\ncapacity-building in research, policy development and implementation \r\nto pursue climate resilient development (Manton and Stevenson, \r\n2014)"


id: 1a2659f62a59469e610b236ad5844e48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Climatic stressors and socioeconomic changes are changing \r\ntraditional genderscapes in mountain communities (Goodrich et  al., \r\n2019). There is increasing evidence on the roles that gendered \r\ndiversity in knowledge, institutions and everyday practices can play in \r\naddressing barriers and creating opportunities for achieving resilience, \r\nadaptive capacity and sustainability in societies (Gioli et  al., 2014; \r\nRavera et al., 2016; Su et al., 2017; Udas et al., 2018; Goodrich et al., \r\n2019; Sujakhu et al., 2019)."


id: bc5df6fdf7761c4c63dee30780b82006
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 27217
content:
"Sustainable and climate-resilient mountain development is predicated \r\non effective and timely climate action building on cross-scalar \r\npartnerships among researchers, stakeholders and decision makers \r\nto jointly identify desired futures and pathways and assess trade\u0002offs and synergies between climate action and the SDGs (high \r\nagreement, medium evidence) (Klein et  al., 2019a; Pandey et  al., \r\n2021). Understanding of the complexity of mountain ecosystems as \r\nwell as path dependency from earlier and current decisions is of critical \r\nimportance for the sustainable future of mountain regions (Satyal et al., \r\n2017; Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020; Berkey et al., 2021). Framing \r\npathways through questions such as for whom or for what is climate \r\naction positive and which trade-off should be accepted, and why can \r\nserve as a tool for addressing sustainable development goals while \r\navoiding lock-ins or unsustainable path dependencies (Chelleri et al., \r\n2016)"


id: f2bfbeb6ffc671b10ee1f63146fa7d44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Increasingly, climate action is mainstreamed into sustainable \r\ndevelopment, which signifies a shift from climate policy as an end \r\npoint to a continuing process for managing change and facilitating \r\nlong-term sustainable development. The Ethiopian government's \r\nclimate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy is an example of such \r\na shift (Simane and Bird, 2017) as are emerging initiatives to build \r\nback greener in response to COVID-19 impacts (Schipper et al., 2020)."


id: f49ba2b79656aa6e34021be56b1b1408
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 35988
content:
"The assessment presented in this CCP has several limitations, \r\nprincipally in terms of the amount of often fragmented and biased \r\ngeographic coverage or lack of relevant thematic scope covered \r\nin the literature published since AR5 and SROCC. Key assessment \r\nlimitations and relevant knowledge gaps identified in this CCP fall \r\nwithin the following broad categories: 1) detection and attribution of \r\nobserved impacts to climate change, 2) limitations and uncertainties \r\nassociated with predictive models of projected impacts and risks, 3) \r\nintegrated and systems-oriented research on mountain ecosystem \r\nservices and their limits under climate change and 4) measurable \r\ntracking of adaptation action implemented in mountain regions and \r\ntheir suitability for addressing climate risks. These are summarised in \r\nTable CCP5.3"


id: b9937c34cd6cce4e5c649b4fe724266b
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content:
" While these limitations and assessment-relevant gaps \r\nin knowledge offer important caveats for the interpretation of this \r\nassessment; they also highlight prospects to address and improve the \r\nevidence basis in future assessments."


id: 724be4531f387cdf4e38da7094a33c75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 15609
content:
"River flow is a main source of freshwater both in mountain regions and downstream areas. Various sources contribute \r\nto it, including rainfall, snow and glacier melt and groundwater. Climate change affects these different sources in \r\ndifferent ways. Climate change affects rainfall patterns, such as long-term increase or decrease, seasonal shifts or \r\nchanges in rainfall intensity. Rising temperatures strongly influence snowmelt- and glacier-melt-generated river \r\ndischarge; the snowmelt season starts earlier, less snow mass is available for melt, and snowmelt contribution to \r\nriver flow thus decreases over the year. Whether rising temperatures produce meltwater from glaciers depends on \r\nthe state and characteristics of the glaciers and the catchment basin"


id: e7b73389037fb804d95cc087c4d2a835
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" The concept of 'peak water' implies that, first, \r\nas glaciers shrink in response to a warmer climate, more meltwater is released until a turning point (peak water), \r\nafter which glaciers melt, and so its contribution to river flow decreases. In many mountain regions worldwide, \r\nglaciers and their basins have already passed peak water, and the runoff contribution of glaciers is on the decline. \r\nGlacier shrinkage not only influences river discharge but also water quality. In the Andes of Peru, for instance, it \r\nhas been observed that retreating glaciers expose bedrock, resulting in more acid water because of minerals that \r\ndissolve from the rock. Mountain ecosystems are also affected by changing freshwater availability. For instance, \r\nhigh-elevation wetlands in the tropical Andes critically depend on glacier meltwater during the dry season, and the \r\ndisappearance of this freshwater source results in ecosystem degradation."


id: a76932660210bb5ea5f5ffacb817beac
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content:
"The availability of freshwater is a function of water supply and water demand, with the latter being determined by \r\nsectors such as agriculture, energy, industry or domestic use, as well as by competition among these sectors. Formal \r\nand informal water extraction and use prevail, and competition includes issues of inequality, power relations and \r\nasymmetry. Consequently, the effects of climate change on water resources, people and ecosystems are strongly \r\nmodulated and often exacerbated by socioeconomic development and related water resource management. For \r\nexample, the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in the European Alps, combined with declines and \r\nseasonal shifts of river runoff from snowmelt and glacier melt, are expected to result in growing competition among \r\ndifferent sectors, such as hydropower, agriculture and tourism. Similar developments are projected or have already \r\nbeen observed in many other mountain regions"


id: fa29d9e1f1446eafd01ec66917851b27
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vector_id: 36875
content:
" This situation calls for strengthening and improving negotiation \r\nformats for water management that are transparent, equitable and socially and environmentally just. Management \r\nof water demand and strategies that entail multiple uses of water will become increasingly important in this context."


id: f7a7e7780e21154af186f3996121a8bc
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vector_id: 36479
content:
"With increasing average global temperatures, the climatic conditions under which plants and animals can thrive are \r\nshifting to higher elevations. The movement of some plant taxa towards mountain tops has been observed in recent \r\ndecades. However, for species restricted to the highest elevations, there is nowhere to move to, meaning they are \r\nincreasingly at risk of extinction. Climatic conditions may exceed the physiological limits for species and habitats \r\nmay become unsuitable for others. There is also a risk from competition with colonising native species and invading \r\nnon-native species, spreading to higher elevations, and some species cannot move quickly enough to keep pace \r\nwith changes in the climate. The most vulnerable species are those that reproduce and disperse slowly and those \r\nthat are isolated on mountain tops, including endemic species, which may face global extinction. In other cases, \r\nspecies will be lost from some parts of their current range"


id: 171794dd55713aac22559aff8d7a1199
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 1151
content:
" Mountains can, however, allow other species to survive \r\nin areas where they otherwise would not because of small-scale variations in climate with elevation or different \r\naspects of slopes."


id: d8f7407ae757c6e7681082560802ad9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 31644
content:
"In many mountain regions, multiple sources of evidence point to tree expansions into treeless areas above (and in \r\nsome cases below) the forest belt. This may increase forest productivity at the upper treeline. Treelines have moved \r\nup in the last 30-100 years in many mountain regions, including, for example, the Andes, Urals and Altai. At the \r\nsame time, since the 1990s, treeline responses in different parts of the Himalaya have been highly variable, in some \r\nplaces advancing upslope, in others demonstrating little change and in yet others moving downwards. This can be \r\nexplained by site-specific complex interactions of the positive effects of warming on tree growth, drought stress, \r\nchange in snow precipitation, land use change, especially grazing, and other factors. Treelines are affected by land \r\nuse and management around the globe, and changing land use practices can supersede climate change effects in \r\nsome mountain regions"


id: de532627288c147a83f3b5e3c8e12199
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 32471
content:
" An upward shift in the elevation of bioclimatic zones, decreases in the area of the highest \r\nelevation zones and an expansion of the lower zones can be expected by mid-century, for example in regions such \r\nas the Himalaya."


id: 703105d1d9f6ed4d473870fb145feb56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 15266
content:
"Underlying environmental conditions, such as limited space, shallow soils, exposure to numerous hazards, \r\nclimate-sensitive ecosystems and isolation, make it particularly difficult to implement adaptation at scales relevant \r\nfor implementation. Common adaptation options are often implemented at the individual, household or community \r\nlevel. These options are incremental and have generated observable results and outcomes. Adaptation actions that \r\ninvolve partial changes that do not dramatically alter established practices and behaviours seem to have better \r\nchances of being implemented than systemic or structural changes. Formal or planned adaptation efforts that \r\nare more institutionally driven constitute only a small proportion of observed adaptation in mountain regions. \r\nWhere adaptation options are implemented, they often target not only climate change but an array of other \r\nissues, priorities and pressures experienced by and in those communities (e.g"


id: 5728408177e0a6a6a1ca05e2166b629b
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content:
"The polar regions, notably the Arctic and maritime Antarctic, are \r\nexperiencing impacts from climate change at magnitudes and \r\nrates that are among the highest in the world, and will become \r\nprofoundly different in the near-term future (by 2050) under \r\nall warming scenarios (high confidence). In the Arctic, accelerated \r\nsea ice loss (particularly during summer), increased permafrost thaw \r\nand extreme high temperatures have substantially impacted marine, \r\nfreshwater and terrestrial sociological-ecological systems (very high \r\nconfidence). Multiple physical, ecological and societal elements of \r\npolar regions are approaching a level of change potentially irreversible \r\nfor hundreds of years, if not millennia (high confidence). Evidence \r\nof borealisation of terrestrial and marine systems is emerging (high \r\nconfidence), and cascading impacts are ongoing and widespread yet \r\nchallenging to quantify fully due to complexity and lags in ecological \r\nexpression of change"


id: c10be61ff9093bddbc488dcb4d5ea3b6
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vector_id: 27947
content:
" Loss of multi-year sea ice and the occurrence of a \r\nseasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century will result \r\nin substantial range contraction, if not the disappearance of several \r\nArctic fish, crab, bird and marine mammal species, including possible \r\nextinction of seals and polar bears in certain regions (high confidence). \r\nIn the Arctic, permafrost thaw and snowfall decrease lead to profound \r\nhydrological changes, an overall greening of the tundra and regional \r\nbrowning of tundra and boreal forests (high confidence). {CCP6.1; \r\nTable CCP6.1; Table CCP6.2; CCP6.2.1; CCP6.2.2; Table CCP6.5}"


id: bb426e22d88a7fee54c3555a19a8d241
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 27006
content:
"Timing, direction and scale of polar climate change impacts \r\ndiffer sub-regionally and will require adaptation strategies that \r\nare flexible, equitable, inclusive and integrated across sectors \r\nand governance arrangements to effectively reduce risks (high \r\nconfidence). Governance around climate change planning, preparation \r\nand response has been limited in scope, and has often not considered \r\ninteracting effects of climate change with other risks (high confidence). \r\nReactive management strategies will not succeed in reducing risks \r\nin polar regions given the rapid change and increasing potential for \r\nextreme events (high confidence). Greater inclusivity of stakeholders \r\nand communities, along with using diverse sources of information, \r\nincluding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, can benefit \r\nrobust planning and decision making, and uptake of adaptations (high \r\nconfidence)"


id: e3c633c28c13049cdd01108b6756a79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 33315
content:
" Effectiveness in preparing for and adapting to climate \r\nrisks can benefit from improved climate, weather and ice forecasting \r\nservices, tools for integrating climate change data and different \r\ntypes of knowledge into management processes and enhanced polar \r\nsearch, rescue and emergency response capabilities (high confidence). \r\n{CCP6.2.3.1; CCP6.3; Table CCP6.6; CCP6.4; Box CCP6.2; Box CCP6.3; \r\nFigure CCP6.8}"


id: 16d31fc6a9e4ee4aca7d5f058173a60
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vector_id: 1113
content:
"This Cross Chapter Paper (CCP) assesses the impacts, risks and \r\nadaptation implications resulting from the physical and chemical \r\nchanges in the polar regions that were detailed in the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WGI) contribution \r\nto the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) (IPCC, 2021). Several key \r\nWGI AR6 findings have important implications for natural and human \r\nsystems in polar regions. Warming and wetting have persisted as key \r\nclimatic impact drivers in polar regions (very high confidence) and \r\nwill very likely2\r\n continue to 2100 (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; Gulev \r\net al., 2021) with cascading climate effects regarding heatwaves, fire, \r\nweather, floods and heavy precipitation, river runoff, snowfall, glaciers \r\nand ice sheets (IS), permafrost, lake, river and sea ice, relative sea level \r\nand coastal flooding and erosion (Gutierrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021) (Table CCP6.1)"


id: 47c3aae1917a6a2fa15dcb3388711425
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content:
" They represent major climate hazards in all \r\nkey risks for polar regions (Table CCP6.5). Key points of departure for \r\nthis CCP also include IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2014) \r\nand the Polar Regions chapter in the Special Report on the Ocean and \r\nCryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) (Meredith et  al., 2019). \r\nSROCC assessed physical, biological and social systems concerning the \r\nArctic and Antarctic Oceans and cryosphere, and how they are affected \r\nby current and future climate change. This CCP assesses the rapidly \r\nincreasing evidence that has been published since AR5 and SROCC, and \r\nadvances previous IPCC assessments. First, results from the Coupled \r\nModel Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) are an important advance \r\nsince SROCC, which improve the certainty and resolution of projections \r\nof the main climate impact drivers and the risks they have for polar \r\nsystems (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). Second, "


id: f2068e54170a45a47df9daebdf436ca4
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content:
"Mustonen, 2021). Phytoplankton communities harbour increasing \r\nnumbers of taxa, including harmful species (Lovejoy et  al., 2017) \r\nand the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, which meanwhile forms \r\nregular blooms in the Barents Sea (Neukermans et  al., 2018; Silkin \r\net al., 2020). Northward shifts of pelagic, benthic and demersal species \r\nand subsequent changes in Arctic community composition have been \r\nobserved in the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas (Grebmeier et al., \r\n2018; Mueter et al., 2020), as have higher numbers of economically \r\nimportant boreal species such as haddock and Pacific and Atlantic \r\ncod (CCP6.2.3). Cold-adapted Arctic fish species such as polar cod \r\n(Boreogadus saida) are expected to decline further and lose spawning \r\nhabitats at GWL >1.5degC, mainly due to a lack of phenotypic plasticity, \r\nas well as increasing interspecific competition with and predation \r\nfrom invading boreal species (Dahlke et al., 2018; Marsh and Mueter, \r\n2020)"


id: 48acf357bb09d6f86ba465c4c279983
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" Numerous mammals and sea birds respond to changes in \r\nthe distribution of their preferred habitats and prey by shifting their \r\nrange, altering the timing or pathways for migration or switching \r\nprey (very high confidence) (Hamilton et al., 2017; Loseto et al., 2018; \r\nMeredith et al., 2019). Ice-breeding seals (e.g., harp seals - Pagophilus \r\ngroenlandicus) often have little scope to shift distribution, leading to \r\nincreases in strandings and pup mortality in years with little ice cover \r\n(medium confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) (Boveng et  al., 2020). Recent \r\nstudies confirm that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are negatively \r\naffected by changing ice and snow conditions with decreases in \r\ndenning, foraging, reproduction, genetic diversity and survival rates \r\n(very high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Boonstra et al., 2020; Johnson \r\nand Derocher, 2020; Maduna et al., 2021)."


id: 4c40fcb98e22b5cc8c06b15a87d3c05f
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"followed by gradual shifts to a more diverse typical shelf community, \r\ndriven by increasing pelagic primary production upon ice-shelf collapse \r\nand strengthening of the pelagic-benthic coupling (high confidence) \r\n(Brasier et al., 2021; Gutt et al., 2021). Range changes of Antarctic birds \r\nand marine mammals have been observed, which vary among sub\u0002regions and are mostly attributable to changes in sea ice extent and \r\nfood availability (high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Gutt et al., 2018; \r\nConvey and Peck, 2019; Bestley et al., 2020). With projected sea ice \r\nretreat and associated change in prey distribution (Henley et al., 2020), \r\nforaging areas of sub-Antarctic sea birds and marine mammals will \r\nshift southwards, leading to elevated pressure on populations due to \r\nhigher foraging costs during the breeding season (medium confidence) \r\n(Ropert-Coudert et al., 2018; Bestley et al., 2020; Hindell et al., 2020; \r\nHuckstadt et al., 2020; Wege et al., 2021)"


id: 86a5f8712cb37631de98c315e1462309
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" These changes are particularly \r\nimpacting emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) (Table  CCP6.2), \r\nwith the projected population declining close to extinction by 2100 \r\nunder Business-As-Usual climate scenarios (medium confidence) \r\n(Jenouvrier et al., 2020; Trathan et al., 2020; Jenouvrier et al., 2021), \r\nwhereas population decline is halted by 2060 under the 1.5degC climate \r\nscenario (low confidence) (Jenouvrier et al., 2020)."


id: 68cb32e37a56c7bca62ed7b098921e56
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content:
"In the central Arctic Ocean, primary productivity remains low (medium \r\nconfidence), mostly due to persisting nutrient and light limitations \r\n(Randelhoff and Guthrie, 2016; Ardyna and Arrigo, 2020). In inflowing \r\n(Barents and Chukchi Sea) and interior shelf regions (Laptev, Kara, \r\nand Siberian Sea), changes in sea ice extent, thickness and seasonal \r\ntiming have altered light and mixing regimes, causing increasing \r\noverall productivity in open-water and under-ice habitats, and in leads \r\n(high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Ardyna and Arrigo, 2020; Lannuzel \r\net  al., 2020). Productivity changes are associated with the earlier\u0002onset phytoplankton spring blooms and the increasing occurrence \r\nof autumn blooms, particularly at lower latitudes of the Arctic (high \r\nconfidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Tedesco et al., 2019; Ardyna et al., 2020)"


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" \r\nIce algal communities are expected to change in productivity and \r\nspecies composition in response to the transition from a predominantly \r\nmulti-year to a seasonal sea ice pack (high confidence) (Meredith \r\net al., 2019; Tedesco et al., 2019; Lannuzel et al., 2020). Thinner sea ice \r\nincreases the likelihood of surface flooding, resulting in the occurrence \r\nof snow-infiltration algal communities, which have been described \r\nin the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean (Fernandez-Mendez et  al., \r\n2018) and observed by Indigenous Peoples off northern Greenland \r\n(Box  CCP6.2). The observed transition from marine-terminating to \r\nland-terminating glaciers has a negative impact on coastal ecosystems "


id: ea7ce8fc896a23d0d9155d8a81ef49eb
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"In the Southern Ocean, southward range shifts are expected to result \r\nfrom increased warming coupled with the narrow thermal tolerance of \r\ncold-adapted Antarctic species (Convey and Peck, 2019; Morley et al., \r\n2019; Gutt et al., 2021). Such shifts have so far only been detected \r\nfor Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), with a poleward contraction of \r\nthe highest densities of krill in the Atlantic sector (medium confidence) \r\n(Table CCP6.2); (Atkinson et al., 2019). Ocean warming is expected to \r\nput pressure on Antarctic phytoplankton (Pinkerton et al., 2021) and \r\nfish species unable to move further south in shelf areas, including \r\nwaters off sub-Antarctic islands (low confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) \r\n(Caccavo et al., 2021). Off the Antarctic Peninsula and sub-Antarctic \r\nislands, invasive benthic invertebrates and macroalgae have already \r\nbeen detected (medium confidence) (Fraser et al., 2018; Avila et al., \r\n2020; Brasier et al"


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", 2021), and projected changes will further favour \r\nthe spread of invasive species (Fraser et al., 2020; Macaya et al., 2020). \r\nOn a local to regional scale, the benthic recolonisation of the newly \r\nexposed seabed after the disintegration of ice shelves shows typical \r\nsuccession patterns, with mass occurrences of few pioneer species "


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vector_id: 26274
content:
"in Greenland (medium confidence) (Meire et al., 2017; Hopwood et al., \r\n2018) and Svalbard (Halbach et al., 2019), as land-terminating glacial \r\nmeltwater input increases stratification, which hinders vertical mixing \r\nand lowers local productivity, whereas marine-terminating glaciers \r\ncan trigger upwelling, which supplies nutrients and enables higher \r\nproductivity in the summer (Hopwood et al., 2020). Macroalgae and \r\nseagrass are generally expanding in the Arctic (medium confidence), \r\nthough there are negative trends in some regions, partly due to \r\nincreased runoff and turbidity from melting glaciers (Hopwood et al., \r\n2020; Krause-Jensen et al., 2020). In the future Arctic Ocean, higher \r\nlight availability in response to further sea ice decline and reduced \r\ndeep mixing is projected to generally increase primary productivity \r\n(medium confidence), leading to an increase in phytoplankton biomass \r\nfrom 2000 to 2100 by ~20% for SSP1-2.6 and ~30-40% for SSP5-\r\n8"


id: 116bd8b39cdb0c6c69690a0b1b0b3ae1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"5 (Chapter 3) (Kwiatkowski et  al., 2020). However, productivity \r\nmay increase less than predicted and eventually even decrease once \r\nnutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability \r\n(low confidence) (Randelhoff et al., 2020; Seifert et al., 2020)."


id: eee5aa1a6d41cd156e81d3041e66c216
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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"saturation (Ding et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2020). Key species of diatom \r\nand picoeukaryote phytoplankton species yet appear relatively resilient \r\nto decreasing pH levels over a range of temperature and light conditions \r\n(medium confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Thoisen et al., 2015; Wolf et al., \r\n2018; White et al., 2020). In contrast, there is evidence for species- and \r\nstage-specific sensitivities of zooplankton, pteropods and fishes (high \r\nconfidence) (Table  CCP6.2) (Bailey et  al., 2016; Dahlke et  al., 2018; \r\nThor et al., 2018). Warming, rising river-sediment discharge and coastal \r\nerosion in Arctic shelf regions are expected to increase the input of \r\nlabile, often permafrost-derived organic carbon, the remineralisation \r\nof which further increases acidification rates (medium confidence) \r\n(Semiletov et al., 2016; AMAP, 2018b; Broder et al., 2018)"


id: 445d127f829dbc0f19371a4e3320726c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 8178
content:
" Interactions \r\nwith other physical changes, such as warming or freshening, are \r\nexpected to aggravate the impacts of ocean acidification (Chapter 3) \r\n(Falkenberg et al., 2018)."


id: 45f1b9887e14c622cf948af48368c5ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"In the Southern Ocean, calcifying organisms are also most vulnerable \r\nto ocean acidification (high confidence) (Table CCP6.2), as evidenced \r\nby rates of calcification declining by 3.9% between 1998 and 2014 \r\n(Freeman and Lovenduski, 2015). Calcifying species with low\u0002magnesium calcite or mechanisms to protect their skeletons are less \r\nvulnerable to the corrosive effects of acidification than those using \r\naragonite or high-magnesium calcite (high confidence) (Figuerola et al., \r\n2021). In diatom-dominated communities, silicification diminishes \r\nwith reduced pH levels, albeit with rates differing among taxa (low \r\nconfidence) (Petrou et  al., 2019). Species-specific responses exist \r\nregarding growth and primary production, which are further strongly \r\nmodulated by iron and light availability (high confidence) (Hoppe et al., \r\n2013; Trimborn et al., 2013; Hoppe et al., 2015; Henley et al., 2020; \r\nSeifert et al., 2020)"


id: 66fd70aec106ee27a270712c15412d90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" A meta-analysis yielded different CO2 thresholds for \r\nAntarctic organismal groups; for example, negative impacts emerged \r\nat >1000 matm CO2 in phytoplankton and at >1500 matm CO2 in \r\ninvertebrates, whereas bacterial abundance was positively affected by \r\nocean acidification (Hancock et al., 2020). Species sensitivity can also \r\ndiffer strongly between life-cycle stages (Chapter 3.3.2). For instance, \r\neggs and embryos of Antarctic krill are negatively impacted at >1250 \r\nmatm CO2 whereas adults can thrive even at 1000-2000 uatm CO2 over \r\none year (Kawaguchi et al., 2013; Ericson et al., 2018)."


id: 5ea844feb15e2d153ba26f80f054d0f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 12431
content:
"Despite large-scale environmental changes in the Southern Ocean, \r\nsuch as the deepening of the summer mixed layer (medium confidence) \r\n(Panassa et  al., 2018; Sallee et  al., 2021), and the expected impacts \r\nvia altered nutrient entrainment, light availability and grazer encounter \r\nrates (Chapter 3) (Behrenfeld and Boss, 2014; Llort et  al., 2019), \r\nassessments indicated no consistent changes in primary production \r\nat the circumpolar scale, as sectors and regions show different \r\ntrends (medium confidence). Although a global assessment found no \r\noverall changes in circumpolar primary production from 1998 to 2015 \r\n(Table  CCP6.2) (Gregg and Rousseaux, 2019), another study showed \r\nan overall increase in phytoplankton biomass in the mixed layer over \r\nthe period 1997-2019 (Pinkerton et al., 2021). Primary productivity has \r\nincreased in the Pacific sector and decreased in the Atlantic sector and \r\nthe Ross Sea (low confidence) (Kahru et al., 2017; Henley et al"


id: 7e5812cd5105294517120dd3fbc04552
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content:
", 2020; \r\nPinkerton et al., 2021). Higher productivity has also been observed in \r\nregions where rapid environmental changes occurred, such as in the \r\nvicinity of retreating IS and declining sea ice cover off the Antarctic \r\nPeninsula (medium confidence) (Henley et  al., 2020; Rogers et  al., \r\n2020), although diversity of phytoplankton may decrease with warming \r\ntemperatures and less sea ice (limited evidence) (Lin et al., 2021). In the \r\nfuture Southern Ocean, stronger upwelling due to strengthened westerly \r\nwinds is projected to increase primary productivity at the circumpolar \r\nscale in the Antarctic Zone and to the north of the sub-Antarctic Front, \r\nbut not in the sub-Antarctic Zone (low to medium confidence) (Chapter \r\n3) (Henley et al., 2020; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020; Pinkerton et al., 2021). \r\nThe largest changes are projected to occur after 2100 at 2-6degC warming \r\nof the surface ocean (Moore et al., 2018)"


id: 41aafa9f7bc8bd6d82fb25ce1050ae14
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content:
" Such an increase in Southern \r\nOcean productivity will lead to a decline in global ocean productivity \r\n(medium confidence), due to nutrient trapping (Moore et  al., 2018) \r\nand altered ocean carbon uptake through ecosystem feedbacks (Hauck \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 66bc78083ad484bc58c7b5f068080700
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 13755
content:
"Climate change has transformed Arctic marine ecosystems from sea ice\u0002associated to open-water production regimes, with profound impacts \r\non trophic energy transfer efficiencies and pathways (high confidence) \r\n(Behrenfeld et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019; Huntington et al., 2020) \r\nas well as benthic-pelagic coupling (medium confidence) (Birchenough \r\net  al., 2015; Degen et  al., 2016; Solan et  al., 2020). Shifts in bloom \r\nphenology favour small phytoplankton and smaller zooplankton over \r\nlarge lipid-rich macro-zooplankton, leading to longer, less efficient food \r\nchains (medium confidence) (Aarflot et  al., 2018; Feng et  al., 2018; \r\nKimmel et al., 2018; Weydmann et al., 2018; Moller and Nielsen, 2020). \r\nIn the Beaufort Sea and Svalbard waters, earlier spring phytoplankton \r\nblooms have resulted in a mismatch in dynamics between microalgae and \r\nherbivorous copepods (Renaud et al., 2018; Dezutter et al., 2019)"


id: c76e3b768b788d357673da0851b3e170
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content:
" In the \r\nBering Sea, zooplankton declines following the particularly pronounced \r\nsea ice retreats in 2017 and 2018 were associated with reduced forage \r\nfish production (Duffy-Anderson et  al., 2019) as well as multi-trophic "


id: 6696285e0562c5bdc68e63eda0de4693
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content:
"of higher trophic species, but changes in the structure and function of \r\nfood webs will vary (McCormack et al., 2021; McCormack, accepted) \r\ndepending on regional differences in changing drivers (Morley et al., \r\n2020; Cavanagh et al., 2021; Grant et al., 2021). Primary production \r\nin open water habitats is expected to be supported by smaller \r\nphytoplankton species in the future (Henley et al., 2020), which could \r\nincrease the relative importance of the copepod-mesopelagic fish \r\npathway (McCormack, accepted), because krill prefer larger diatoms as \r\nfood (Siegel, 2016). The optimum habitat for Antarctic krill is expected \r\nto decline with a shortening of suitable season for krill growth and \r\nreproduction, particularly in the northern Scotia and Bellingshausen \r\nSeas (medium confidence) (Veytia et  al., 2020), although changes \r\nmay be difficult to distinguish from natural variability until later in the \r\ncentury (Sylvester et al., 2021)"


id: 77b7805c7438b29bbbd858f2493f90a7
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content:
" More subtle and unpredictable changes \r\nmay occur in the structure and relative importance of energy pathways \r\nin the food webs (Trebilco et  al., 2020). Small mesopelagic fish are \r\nincreasingly recognised for their importance as mid-trophic level species \r\nin the Southern Ocean, particularly in the sub-Antarctic zone (Caccavo \r\net  al., 2021) and Central Indian Sector (Subramaniam et  al., 2020; \r\nMcCormack et al., 2021). Although salps have long been considered \r\nto be competitors of Antarctic krill (Suprenand and Ainsworth, 2017; \r\nRogers et al., 2020), they provide a third energy pathway in pelagic food \r\nwebs and, given the changing ocean conditions and their preference \r\nfor smaller phytoplankton, may increase in importance for copepods \r\n(low confidence) (Plum et al., 2020; Trebilco et al., 2020; McCormack \r\net  al., 2021; Pauli et  al., 2021; McCormack, accepted)"


id: fc8959fc6026394d3a4e3ebd6940bf3f
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content:
" Declining ice \r\nshelves, such as those off the Antarctic Peninsula, will open up new \r\npelagic and benthic habitats (CCP6.2.1.1) with expected increases in \r\nproductivity of benthic assemblages in the new areas (Barnes, 2017; \r\nMorley et al., 2020; Brasier et al., 2021; Gutt et al., 2021)."


id: 19628ddeab58f68ff1839501354f5375
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content:
"mortality of ctenophore, fish, bird and mammal species, coupled with \r\nsevere emaciation, reproductive failure, disease and high mortality rates \r\nof sea bird predators (Section 14.4.4.2) (Jones et al., 2019; Maekakuchi \r\net  al., 2020; Piatt et  al., 2020; Romano et  al., 2020). Species range \r\nshifts have restructured higher trophic levels in Arctic food webs (high \r\nconfidence) (Table  CCP6.2; CCP6.2.3.3 Chapter 3) (Huntington et  al., \r\n2020). In the northern Barents Sea, increased predation mortality for \r\nkey species and incursions of boreal fish have induced entire ecosystem \r\nreorganisation (Degen et al., 2016; Pecuchet et al., 2020a; Pecuchet et al., \r\n2020b). Regional taxonomic and functional diversity increased with \r\nimmigration of boreal species, although the ongoing decline in Arctic \r\nspecies suggests high species turnover (Table  CCP6.2) (Frainer et  al., \r\n2017)"


id: 29134b8030c404ec0721b7f70a86df0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Recent marine heatwaves induced rapid and profound food web \r\nchanges unprecedented over the last four decades (Siddon et al., 2020)."


id: d2f3ef95e35deaa7f4788f4b35bd0678
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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"Climate impacts on Arctic marine food webs will be profound and \r\nintensify with GWL (high confidence), regardless of mitigation \r\nscenarios due to multi-decadal lags in sea ice extent and atmospheric \r\ncarbon (WGI) (Jones et al., 2020). However, the exact nature of these \r\nimpacts remains unclear due to attenuating and amplifying dynamics \r\nof both top-down and bottom-up processes in polar food webs and \r\nthe management of fisheries (high confidence) (Chapter 3) (Cavicchioli \r\net al., 2019; Meredith et al., 2019). Projected sea ice loss is associated \r\nwith a >50% decline in the density of large zooplankton species by \r\n2100 (relative to early 21st century levels) in the southern Bering Sea \r\nand a net increase in large zooplankton in the Northern Bering Sea \r\nin scenarios without carbon mitigation (Representative Concentration \r\nPathway (RCP) 8.5), whereas these declines are roughly half the \r\nmagnitude under moderate mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5) (Hermann \r\net al"


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content:
", 2019; Kearney et al., 2020). Warming is expected to reduce the \r\nquantity and quality of lipid-rich copepod prey (high confidence) (Aarflot \r\net al., 2018; Kimmel et al., 2018; Bouchard and Fortier, 2020; Moller \r\nand Nielsen, 2020; Mueter et al., 2020), leading to declines in survival \r\nand growth of multiple upper-trophic level fish species; these impacts \r\nare amplified over time under low mitigation scenarios (RCP8.5) (high \r\nconfidence) (CCP6.2.1.1) (Dahlke et  al., 2018; Holsman et  al., 2020; \r\nMueter et al., 2020; Oke et al., 2020; Reum et al., 2020; Thorson et al., \r\n2020; Whitehouse et al., 2021). Marine mammals and sea birds will \r\ncontinue to attenuate climate change impacts by shifting their diets \r\nand behaviour (medium confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Hamilton et al., \r\n2017; Lowther et  al., 2017; Lydersen et  al., 2017; Vihtakari et  al., \r\n2018; Boveng et  al., 2020)"


id: c6daeaa69df217cdd53af40ed3510940
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" However, sea birds generally have low \r\ntemperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing, making them \r\nvulnerable to mismatches with their prey and limiting long-term \r\nadaptation (medium confidence) (Keogan et al., 2018; Kharouba and \r\nWolkovich, 2020; Piatt et al., 2020; Samplonius et al., 2021)."


id: 65c7dd2b94cb5c9ab9c0eb96ea29f7a6
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vector_id: 13597
content:
"Since the publication of AR5 (IPCC, 2014) and SROCC (IPCC, 2019) and \r\ntheir findings (Table CCP6.2), more studies confirm rapid changes in \r\nArctic terrestrial and freshwater systems including increased permafrost \r\nthaw, changes to tundra hydrology and vegetation (overall greening of \r\nthe tundra, regional browning of tundra and boreal forests), coastal and \r\nriverbank erosion (high confidence) (Canadell et al., 2021; Mustonen \r\nand Shadrin, 2021), reduced duration of snow cover and river and lake \r\nice, increased rain-on-snow events, and reduced land-ice extent and \r\nthickness (Bieniek et  al., 2018; Brown et  al., 2018). Climate change \r\ncontinues to alter vegetation and attendant biodiversity, with divergent \r\nregional trends across the Arctic due to disparities in local conditions \r\nand changes in growing seasons (Zhu et al., 2016; Taylor et al., 2020). \r\nWarming facilitates woody vegetation growth in northeastern Siberia, \r\nwestern Alaska, and northern Quebec (Song et al"


id: 8271d3493d1ea5ce45bc04ef4338d074
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content:
", 2018; Garcia Criado \r\net al., 2020), as well as a northward expansion of shrub vegetation and \r\nsub-Arctic and boreal species (Davidson et al., 2020)."


id: 64119a0c105c2b4e890c4d5c767a54b3
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vector_id: 13313
content:
"Vegetation responses to warming are contingent on water availability \r\nand local temperature (medium confidence) (Guglielmin et al., 2014; \r\nRoyles and Griffiths, 2015; Amesbury et al., 2017; Cannone et al., 2017; \r\nCharman et  al., 2018; Robinson et  al., 2018; Stelling et  al., 2018), \r\nwhich vary greatly around Antarctica (Figure  CCP6.1) (Turner et  al., \r\n2020a). Antarctic terrestrial ecosystem responses to changes in water \r\navailability are not homogeneous (Ball and Levy, 2015; Sadowsky \r\net al., 2016; Fuentes-Lillo et al., 2017; Gooseff et al., 2017; Schroeter \r\net al., 2017; Lee et al., 2018). West Antarctica is showing evidence of \r\ngreening in the dominant cryptogrammic vegetation, with greater \r\ngrowth in mosses (high confidence) (Casanova-Katny et  al., 2016; \r\nAmesbury et al., 2017; Shortlidge et al., 2017; Charman et al., 2018; \r\nPrather et al., 2019). Peatland ecosystems may increase on the west \r\nAntarctic Peninsula with future warming (low confidence) (Yu et al"


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", \r\n2016; Loisel et  al., 2017). In contrast, some parts of East Antarctica \r\nand the subantarctic islands to the north have been experiencing a \r\ndrying climate, with declining health of mosses and other vegetation \r\n(high confidence) (Bergstrom et al., 2015; Bramley-Alves et al., 2015; \r\nRobinson et al., 2018; Bergstrom et al., 2021)."


id: 5586998a851b23f24509bd47c797e8af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Subsistence harvest of fish, sea birds and marine mammals is the basis \r\nfor economic, cultural and spiritual connections with Arctic marine \r\nsystems (Box CCP6.2)(Fall et al., 2013; Haynie and Huntington, 2016; \r\nRaymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017; Slats et al., 2019), and nature-based \r\nlivelihoods (e.g., caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) herding, \r\nfishing, hunting, trapping, small-scale forestry) are fundamental to \r\nIndigenous Peoples across the Arctic as they have been for millennia \r\n(Koivurova et  al., 2015; Betts, 2016; Gavin et  al., 2018; Raheem, \r\n2018; Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Climate change has impacted \r\nIndigenous subsistence resources across the Arctic (very high \r\nconfidence) (SMCCP6"


id: e57353ca596a28489d153b48085634c3
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content:
"2), and future food systems and ecological \r\nconnections are at risk from future climate change hazards interacting \r\nwith non-climate pressures, some of which are mediated or amplified by \r\nnovel conditions and opportunities in Arctic regions (high confidence) \r\n(Moerlein and Carothers, 2012; Fall et al., 2013; Raymond-Yakoubian \r\net  al., 2017; Meredith et  al., 2019; Slats et  al., 2019; Huntington \r\net al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021). Increasing heatwaves, wildfires, \r\nextreme precipitation, permafrost loss and rapid seasonal snow and ice \r\nthaw events will further threaten terrestrial subsistence food resources \r\nacross the Arctic (high confidence) (Table CCP6.3). Although climate \r\nimpacts and non-climate factors systematically undermine access to \r\nand productivity of subsistence resources, resilience is inherently high \r\nfor Indigenous Peoples, illustrating critical elements underpinning \r\nsuccessful adaptation to climate change (Box  CCP6.2) (Huntington \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 2f5332a05d114e6b41f751c9367a7ade
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 4865
content:
"Cascading and interacting effects of climate change impacts in polar \r\nregions (Table  CCP6.1) will reduce access to, and productivity of, \r\nfuture fisheries, and pose significant risks to regional and global food \r\nand nutritional security that increase with atmospheric carbon levels \r\nand declines in sea ice (high confidence) (Table CCP6.6). Although it \r\nis expected that fisheries will continue to contract poleward under \r\nfuture warming (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) \r\n(Table  CCP6.4) (Alabia et  al., 2018; Morley et  al., 2018; Stevenson \r\nand Lauth, 2019; Caccavo et al., 2021; Grant et al., 2021), global and \r\nregional models differ in their projections of fisheries catch potential \r\nfor the polar regions under climate change. For example, some global\u0002scale models project increases in potential fishery yields in Arctic \r\nCanada (Cheung, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Tai et al"


id: 93e417ffa80b9905480ac7a7a91a26e9
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content:
", 2019), whereas \r\nmany observational studies and high-resolution regional projections \r\nsuggest overall declines in biomass, productivity and yield associated \r\nwith warming and loss of sea ice in multiple regions such as the Bering \r\nSea (medium confidence) (Free et  al., 2019; Hollowed et  al., 2020; \r\nHolsman et al., 2020; Mueter et al., 2020; Reum et al., 2020). Reduced \r\nproduction of macronutrients and protein by polar marine sources \r\nwill disproportionately impact people already experiencing food and \r\nnutritional scarcity (Myers et al., 2017), marine-dependent communities \r\nwithin and beyond polar regions, and women and children who require \r\nhigher quantities of macronutrients (high confidence)."


id: fb693605179684d14fb162745287f59f
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vector_id: 37060
content:
"Fisheries play an increasingly important role in addressing global food \r\nand nutritional deficits (Section 3.6.3)(Bene et al., 2016; Ding et al., \r\n2017; Hicks et al., 2019; Costello et  al., 2020), especially as climate \r\nchange has already reduced global yields from key crops (Myers \r\net al., 2017; Ray et al., 2019; Thiault et al., 2019). Antarctic and Arctic \r\nsystems support some of the world's largest fisheries, including those \r\nfor Antarctic krill and Arctic walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), \r\nwhich constitute a critical source of protein and macronutrients \r\nto a growing population of seafood consumers, as well as various \r\naquaculture and livestock feeds (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE \r\nin Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) (Huntington et al., 2013; Raheem, 2018; \r\nHicks et al., 2019; Steiner et al., 2019; FAO, 2020; Cavanagh et al., 2021; \r\nGrant et al., 2021; Murphy et al., 2021)"


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content:
" Marine sources of protein and \r\nnutrition are important in transformational future scenarios where \r\ndietary shifts and provisioning policies provide multiple co-benefits \r\nto equity, food security and carbon mitigation (Springmann et  al., \r\n2016; Poore and Nemecek, 2018; Thiault et al., 2019; Kim et al., 2020). \r\nShifting spatial distributions of fish stocks have led to transboundary \r\nmanagement challenges in the Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic areas \r\npreviously inaccessible due to sea ice (Table CCP6.6) (Gullestad et al., \r\n2020)."


id: d52cd5af11295feef15318d186d586f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Climate change has triggered rapid, unprecedented and cascading changes in polar regions that have profound \r\nimplications for ecosystems and people globally. Although physically remote from the largest population centres, \r\npolar systems are inextricably linked to the rest of the world through interconnected ocean currents, atmospheric \r\ninteractions and weather, ecological and social systems, commerce and trade. The nutrient-rich waters of the polar \r\nregions fuel some of the most productive marine ecosystems on earth, which in turn support fisheries for species \r\npacked with vital macronutrients that are essential for human health and well-being. The largest most sustainable \r\nfisheries in the world are located in polar waters, where a mix of ice, seasonal light and cold nutrient-rich waters \r\nfuel schools of millions of fish that swell and retract in numbers across the years, reflecting interlaced cycles of \r\nicy cold waters, lipid-rich prey and abundant predators"


id: 9995a314d42ec2ed850e7c8c4ad4bcc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Polar systems thus exist in a productive balance that has \r\nsupported vibrant ecocultural connections between Indigenous Peoples and the Arctic for millennia and has \r\nsupported global food production and trade for centuries. Climate change increasingly destabilises this balance \r\nwith uncertain outcomes for Indigenous Peoples and local residents in the Arctic as well as for the rest of the \r\nworld. Triggered by warming oceans and air temperatures, accelerated melting of sea ice, glaciers and IS in polar \r\nregions in turn impacts ocean salinity, sea levels and circulation throughout the global ocean. Warming waters \r\nhave also pushed cold-adapted species poleward, eroded the cold barrier between boreal and Arctic species, and \r\ninduced rapid reorganisation of polar ecosystems. Studies increasingly indicate that the complex web of physical \r\nand biological connections that have fuelled these productive regions will falter without the strong regulating \r\ninfluence of cryospheric change"


id: 48eacc0afa95128493815aeb0e9ef118
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" At the same time, the global demand for food is increasing, particularly the \r\ndemand for highly nutritious marine protein, placing increasing importance on stabilising polar ecological systems \r\nand minimising climate change impacts and risks."


id: 277359f2243949ad657bb3b75ce99f5b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 3611
content:
"Climate change has increased risks to, and demand for, polar \r\ntourism experiences related to increased maritime accessibility (high \r\nconfidence), lengthening of warm weather season lengths (very \r\nhigh confidence) and development of a 'last chance tourism market' \r\n(medium confidence). Reductions in sea ice extent have facilitated \r\nincreased access for polar cruising (Dawson et al., 2018b; Stewart et al., \r\n2020). Demand for Arctic cruises has increased by 20.5% over the past \r\n5 years and resulted in 27.2 million passengers in 2018 (Shijin et al., \r\n2020). In the Antarctic, tourist numbers increased by 27% from 1992 to \r\n2018 and attracted 75,000 visitors in 2019-2020 (IAATO, 2020; Shijin \r\net al., 2020), making it the largest economic sector in the entire region \r\n(Stewart et al., 2020)"


id: 9d2eaa39da2df869e0ebd6dd00feebd7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" The recent increase in polar tourism is due in part \r\nto the development of a niche market called 'last chance tourism', which \r\ninvolves explicitly marketing vulnerable or vanishing destinations or \r\nfeatures (i.e., glaciers, polar bears, landscapes) and encouraging tourists \r\nto see them 'before they are gone' (Dawson et al., 2018a; Groulx et al., \r\n2019). However, tourism development opportunities will also contend \r\nwith ongoing risks related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) \r\npandemic, which halted tourism globally in 2020-2021 (Frame and \r\nHemmings, 2020; Lorenzo et  al., 2020), as well as those related to \r\nincreased climatic risks limiting participation and reducing safety and \r\nsecurity. By 2100, under RCP8.5, snow cover season length suitable for \r\nwinter recreational activities is projected to decrease by 21-49% in \r\nWest Greenland (Schrot et al., 2019)"


id: 9bbb2631071eaa3f9989d3ec729a733c
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content:
" Reduced sea ice and snow cover \r\ncreates hazards for and could limit dog sledding, cross country skiing, \r\nsnowmobiling and floe edge tours, with limited adaptation strategies \r\navailable for low-elevation areas (Stephen, 2018; Palma et al., 2019)."


id: a32295bb238c7f4fd457bc6affca47fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23234
content:
"Climate change presents significant risks to economic activities in \r\nthe polar regions (very high confidence) and simultaneously enables \r\ndevelopment possibilities for fisheries (CCP6.2.3.3), agriculture \r\n(CCP6.2.3.2), the sharing and subsistence economy (CCP6.2.3.1) \r\n(SMCCP6.2) (high confidence), maritime trade (Box CCP6.1), natural \r\nresource development (CCP6.2.4.1) (medium confidence), tourism \r\n(CCP6.2.4.2) and transportation (including shipping) (CCP6.2.4.3; FAQ \r\nCCP6.2). Hundreds of billions of dollars are expected to be invested \r\nin the polar regions in the next several decades (Lloyd's, 2012; \r\nBarnhart et al., 2016; Pendakur, 2017; Tsukerman et al., 2019), and, \r\nas this unfolds, there are opportunities to simultaneously implement \r\nadaptation strategies that support climate resilient development \r\npathways in line with self-determination for Indigenous Peoples and \r\nlocal communities and locally derived visions of successful adaptation \r\nand development (CCP6.3.2, CCP6"


id: cc1827fb02ec54d688f9a23f59c4a228
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 29653
content:
"Climate change is improving access to natural resources in the Arctic \r\nwith consequences for human safety (high confidence), economic \r\ndevelopment (very high confidence) and global mitigation efforts \r\n(medium confidence). Reductions in sea ice combined with improved \r\nextraction and transportation technologies have increased accessibility \r\nto natural resources across the Arctic (Eliasson et  al., 2017; Dawson \r\net al., 2018b; Stephen, 2018), a situation that could support continued \r\nglobal dependence on relatively cheap and abundant fossil fuels \r\nresources and contribute to further warming. By 2040 (RCP4.5) it is \r\nexpected that sea ice will have receded enough to make gas production \r\ntechnologically feasible in the European off-shore Arctic (Petrick et al., \r\n2017). However, increased sea ice mobility, iceberg abundance, storm \r\nsurge and surface wave action (Ng et al"


id: 28a499c037fb0b315d5d6b6a24fab24f
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", 2018; Howell and Brady, 2019; \r\nCasas-Prat and Wang, 2020) will also increase risks to ships servicing \r\nmines in a region that already exhibits disproportionately high accident \r\nrates (Council of Canadian Academies, 2016) (CCP6.3.1, Table CCP6.1). \r\nSeason lengths for ship-based support to mines and extraction sites will \r\nincrease with sea ice change, while access via ice roads will decrease \r\nwith warming (Perrin et al., 2015; Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; \r\nTrofimenko et al., 2017; Southcott and Natcher, 2018). By 2050, climate \r\nchange impacts to the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road servicing \r\nmines in the northeastern region of the Northwest Territories, Canada "


id: 7ee4a3ecc3f6324734d1761eb1715fae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; Gadeke et  al., 2021) in the \r\nnorthern Baltic (Finland) (Kiani et al., 2018), James Bay (Canada) (Hori \r\net al., 2018a; Hori et al., 2018b) and Yakutia (Russia) (Mustonen and \r\nShadrin, 2021). Dog sled travel in northwest Greenland has experienced \r\nshorter season lengths (Nuttall, 2020), Alaskan whale hunters have \r\nhad difficulty finding suitable ice for safe harvest activities (Huntington \r\net al., 2016; Nyland et al., 2017), and unpredictability in break-up and \r\nfreeze-up of sea ice has compromised safe travel to and from culturally \r\nsignificant hunting and camping areas in Canada (Dawson et al., 2020; \r\nSimonee et al., 2021) and northeast Siberia (Ksenofontov et al., 2017; \r\nMustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Fog (low confidence) and an increase in \r\nprecipitation falling as ice pellets or hail (high confidence) (Kochtubajda \r\net al"


id: ba35898926dcf1b37c248e78a49ff77b
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content:
", 2017) is expected to continue to cause operational delays and \r\ncreate safety issues for aviation in the polar regions (Debortoli et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 5dd07756d95b3a56f6b8822e37b26af
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content:
"There has been debate among shipping stakeholders, rightsholders and experts about the extent to which climate \r\nchange and sea ice change is directly influencing increases in shipping activity in the polar regions relative to other \r\nsocial, technological, political and economic factors such as commodity prices, tourism demand, global economic \r\ntrends, infrastructure support and service availability. Understanding the connection between climate change and \r\npolar shipping activity will allow for more reliable projections of possible future traffic trends and will aid in identify\u0002ing appropriate adaptation and infrastructure needs required to support future management of the industry"


id: f20b3c65bffe6712c0f53478b38481f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Recent \r\nstudies have observed increasing statistical correlations between sea ice change and shipping trends in the polar \r\nregions, and many have concluded that although economic factors remain the main driver of shipping activities, \r\nfollowed by infrastructure availability, climate change does indeed play a varying but important role in influencing \r\noperator intentions. The 'opening of polar seaways' due to sea ice reduction is indeed 'enabling' opportunities for \r\npolar shipping among all types of vessels due to increasingly accessible areas that were previously covered by multi\u0002year ice, but the extent to which climate change will specifically 'drive' an increase in shipping demand remains \r\nhighly dependent on the vessel type and the reasons for operation"


id: b66bebd16fa395e434632df1648ae0a1
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vector_id: 26220
content:
" There are certain vessel types, such as those sup\u0002porting international trade, mining operations or community re-supply, where analysis shows no correlation or weak \r\ncorrelations with sea ice change, suggesting that climate change is enabling these types of ships via increased open \r\nwater areas and season lengths but that it is not necessarily driving demand. Conversely, there are certain vessel \r\ntypes, such as yachts and cruise ships, where correlations between sea ice change and traffic increases are stronger, \r\nand where there is evidence to suggest that these vessels are indeed driven to visit the polar regions because they \r\nperceive waterways as exotic and exciting due to being newly accessible or they want to have a Polar experience "


id: 44773824053469aa0fb24d9b1f5badfb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Discovering a viable maritime trade route linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the Arctic has captured the collective global \r\nimagination for centuries (Bockstoce, 2018). Geographically shorter than southern trade routes via the Panama and Suez Canals, the Arctic \r\npresents the possibility for more economical and timely commercial trade, but has historically been limited by thick multi-year ice and other \r\nnavigational challenges. Amplified warming in the Arctic has caused September sea ice extent to decline at a rate of -13% per decade \r\n(Serreze and Meier, 2019) and reduced sea ice thickness by 66% (2 m) between 1958-1976 and 2011-2018 (Kwok, 2018). Regardless of \r\nmitigation efforts, it is expected that before mid-century the Arctic will be seasonally ice free for the first time in 2,600,000 years (defined \r\nas <1,000,000 km2\r\n) (Knies et al., 2014; SIMIP Community, 2020; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Lee et al"


id: c62af0e4b5bbadf18bcf86198ebeebf2
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content:
", 2021) and will make Arctic maritime \r\ntrade a reality (Eguiluz et al., 2016; Melia et al., 2016; Pizzolato et al., 2016; Bennett et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020)."


id: ea795efd1db09a07c679333bb4fa76f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"There are three identified trade routes in the Arctic: Northern Sea Route (NSR), Northwest Passages (NWP) and the Transpolar Sea Route \r\n(TSR). Over the last decade, economic trends and reductions in sea ice have facilitated significant increases in ship traffic in the NSR \r\n(Aksenov et al., 2017; Li et al., 2020), including a 79% increase in total transit tonnage from 2010 to 2017 (Babin et al., 2020) related \r\nmostly to domestic resource development. Relative to an early 21st century baseline, it is expected that the NSR will become 18% more \r\naccessible by mid-century (Stephenson et al., 2013) and could be navigable even for non-ice strengthened vessels for 101-118 days \r\nannually by 2050 and 125-192 days by 2100 (Khon et al., 2017). The NWP has experienced a tripling of km travelled by ships since 1990, \r\nattributed mostly to resource extraction and increases in tourism opportunities (Johnston et al., 2017; Dawson et al., 2018a)"


id: 6be47d4810f05c253b1c02494051a161
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" The NWP \r\ncould become 30% more accessible by 2050 compared with current conditions (Stephenson et al., 2013). Before 4degC global warming \r\nabove pre-industrial, re-supply vessels (Polar Class 7) in the western NWP could gain an additional month of operating time, whereas \r\nthe eastern NWP could gain just 2 weeks (Mudryk et al., 2021) due to the dynamic import of mobile and hazardous ice from the Arctic \r\nOcean (Haas and Howell, 2015; Howell and Brady, 2019). Comparatively, the TSR has historically only been viable for nuclear icebreakers, \r\nsubmarines, and occasional military and scientific activity due to thick multi-year ice regimes (Bennett et al., 2020). However, this most \r\nsought-after route offers the greatest reduction in sailing times compared with southern routes (19-24 days) of all Arctic Sea routes and \r\ncould be 56% more accessible by mid-century compared with current conditions (Stephenson et al., 2013; Melia et al., 2016)."


id: 7926a08cc6d2148203aa073e98b3ee33
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content:
"Growth in Arctic maritime trade will result in increased emission of black carbon (Stephenson et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019; Wang et al., \r\n2021), increases in ship-source underwater noise impacts on marine mammals (Halliday et al., 2017), higher rates of accidents and \r\nincidents among vessels from increasing mobile sea ice and newly accessible ice-free waters that lack charting (Haas and Howell, 2015; \r\nHowell and Brady, 2019), impacts to cultural sustainability for Indigenous Peoples (Olsen et  al., 2019; Dawson et  al., 2020) (high \r\nconfidence), the potential for the introduction and propagation of invasive species (Chan et al., 2019; Rosenhaim et al., 2019), and \r\nsovereignty tensions with implications for global geopolitics (Drewniak et al., 2018) (medium confidence). Globalisation and the almost \r\nuniversal adherence to economic growth models among nations will continue to fuel maritime trade (Box 14.5)"


id: 6865eb52af6d0dffad35196b5ac3a856
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" As sea ice decreases \r\nfacilitates growth in Arctic maritime trade and transportation specifically, adaptation strategies designed to facilitate mitigation co\u0002benefits and that target the cascading implications and double exposure of climate change and Arctic shipping impacts will be essential \r\nin reducing risks (Ng et al., 2018; Pirotta et al., 2019; Bennett et al., 2020; Zeng et al., 2020). Electric and solar powered vessels, new \r\nengine and emission reduction technologies, investment in wind, water, ice and climate forecasting technologies and services (Haavisto \r\net al., 2020; Stewart et al., 2020; Simonee et al., 2021), and efforts by the International Maritime Organization to reduce sulphur and the \r\nuse of heavy fuel oils (PAME, 2020; van Luijk et al., 2020) could play a key role in limiting emissions and reducing risks related to the \r\nenvironmental and cultural impacts of fuel spills in ice-infested Arctic waters"


id: 5cfa59dec3e1189df6f211fbba7c7a03
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content:
" The development of low-impact shipping corridors (Chenier \r\net al., 2017; Dawson et al., 2020) and multi-lateral agreements such as those implemented by the Arctic Council and Indigenous Peoples' \r\norganisations on joint search and rescue (Arctic Council, 2011) and shared spill responsibilities (Arctic Council, 2013) represent important \r\nco-governance efforts that will be increasingly important in the future owing to projected climate-related risks."


id: 5715094443543c156c2cda50cc1d85bb
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content:
"permafrost thaw could increase the cost of infrastructure lifecycle \r\nreplacement by 27% by mid-century under RCP8.5 (Suter et al., 2019). \r\nNorthern Canada and Western Siberia are at particularly high risk, \r\nwhich are projected to cost additional annual spending of over 1% \r\nof annual gross regional product to maintain existing infrastructure \r\n(Suter et  al., 2019). For instance, under an RCP8.5 scenario, climate \r\nchange could affect over 19% of structures and infrastructure assets in \r\nRussia, which would cost an estimated $84.4 billion USD to mitigate \r\ndamages (Streletskiy et  al., 2019). Fifty-four percent of residential \r\nbuildings are projected to be affected by significant permafrost \r\ndegradation by the mid-century, costing an additional estimated \r\n$52.6  billion USD (Streletskiy et  al., 2019). Sea level rise (SLR) and \r\nreduced sea ice protection is projected to compound permafrost thaw \r\ndamages, including low lying coasts (e.g"


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", along southern Beaufort \r\nSea), low-lying barrier islands (e.g., along Chukchi Sea), and deltas \r\n(e.g., Mackenzie, Lena) (Fritz et al., 2017; Lantz et al., 2020). In Alaska, "


id: 6d74e8a270ff00122722e853cffd9e78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 14830
content:
"Climate change continues to have wide-ranging physical human health \r\nrisks in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (high confidence); \r\nhowever, future projections of physical risks are nascent. Climate \r\nchange has already challenged food and nutritional security (CCP6.2.5). \r\nClimate change also creates safety concerns for those who access the \r\nland, ice and water for food, cultural and recreational purposes, with \r\nchanging environmental conditions linked to injury and death (Durkalec \r\net al., 2014; Clark et al., 2016a; Clark et al., 2016b; Driscoll et al., 2016; \r\nBrattland and Mustonen, 2018). Foodborne disease risks are expected \r\nto increase in the Arctic, with warming temperatures linked to increased \r\nrisk of microbial contamination of locally harvested foods (Grjibovski \r\net  al., 2013; Harper et  al., 2015), chemical contamination of locally \r\nharvest foods (Hansen et al., 2015; Long et al., 2015; Alava et al"


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", 2017), \r\ncompromised structural integrity and utility of ice cellars used to store \r\nlocally harvested meat (Nyland et al., 2017; Markon et al., 2018), and \r\nnew challenges to traditional food preparation techniques (Shadrin, \r\n2021). Waterborne disease risks have increased, with decreased \r\ndrinking water quality and quantity, water treatment infrastructure \r\nfailures and new waterborne pathogens emerging in the Arctic (Berner \r\net al., 2016; Thivierge et al., 2016; Markon et al., 2018; Yoder, 2018; \r\nMasina et al., 2019; Sachal et al., 2019; Harper et al., 2020; Mustonen \r\nand Shadrin, 2021). Emerging environmental exposures to pathogens \r\nis also a concern. In 2016, a Nenets boy and over 200,000 reindeer died \r\nfrom anthrax linked to warming environments (Ezhova et al., 2021)--a \r\nrisk which is projected to increase with climate change (Liskova et al., \r\n2021)"


id: c537ea9f30300dec0f1e96dd8a050a23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
" Thawing permafrost increases smallpox risk in former nomadic \r\ncampsites and graveyards (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021; Shadrin, \r\n2021). Arctic health systems--which are often already stressed--will \r\nbe further challenged by climate change (Harper et  al., 2015; Clark \r\nand Ford, 2017), especially in conjunction with other system shocks \r\n(e.g., COVID-19) (Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7) (Zavaleta\u0002Cortijo et al., 2020). While physical health impacts have been observed, \r\nresearch examining future health projections or evaluating the efficacy \r\nof health adaptations is rare (Dobson et al., 2015; Harper et al., 2020; \r\nHarper et al., 2021).\r\nClimate change has negative, widespread and cumulative impacts \r\non mental health in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples \r\n(very high confidence) (Figure  CCP6.3). Climate-sensitive mental \r\nhealth outcomes are complex, overlapping and interrelated, and have "


id: 45df9c9b12d0b72f5e0cf90beee318c3
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vector_id: 8383
content:
"Due to the steady changes in precipitation in recent years, a deeper than usual snow cover has formed in Northeast Siberia (Mustonen \r\nand Shadrin, 2021). This alters the capacity of reindeer to access lichen, their primary food source. Late onset of cold weather has led to \r\ndifficulties in the herds moving to their winter pastures. In the summer, increased rainfall has led to waterlogging of low-lying pastures. \r\nThe most important challenge is the instability of the weather (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). This includes frequent, never-before-seen \r\nwarming, combined with rains in the late winter and early spring. Sharp temperature drops of over 30degC occurring within a few hours \r\nlead to formation of an ice crust on the ground which becomes a challenge for reindeer, especially in autumn, and are becoming more \r\nfrequent. Furthermore, the number of summer storms and rapid cooling accompanied with snowfall during July has increased"


id: a821bbadc19d6f2b520997abcf06c209
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content:
" Using IK \r\nto predict weather is the basis of effective survival. It has become extremely difficult due to the unprecedented fast changing conditions \r\n(Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021) (Shadrin, 2021). All of these events lead to increased risks in the lives of Indigenous Peoples (Mustonen \r\nand Shadrin, 2021)."


id: 5810ac552e5dc857d0834d03ac4999d3
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"Feodoroff (2021) stresses that many Sami women are central to Indigenous-led adaptation. Indigenous women use their bodies as \r\ngauges of change. For example, the restoration work in Naatamojoki River in Finland (Ogar et al., 2020; Feodoroff, 2021) is based on the \r\nknowledge of traditional fishers and reindeer herders. IK and Western science offer possibilities to reflect on changes that the waters \r\nin Indigenous bodies have known of events of the past (Feodoroff, 2021). Changes in temperature, pain and the gradual passing of \r\npain, waves and intrusions within Indigenous bodies are knowledges that are difficult to communicate according to Feodoroff (2021). \r\nWomen are sensitive to receiving messages from their home environments. Feodoroff (2021) stresses that Indigenous conservation work \r\nis a bodily commitment. This realisation is linked with difficult questions of what or who controls Indigenous bodies"


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" Feodoroff (2021) \r\nlinks present change with lingering impacts of global environmental damage that has not been dealt with or addressed. It may lead \r\nto real pain in Indigenous bodies and minds, causing feelings of being nauseated and ultimately causing fade-out, wilt, withering and \r\nextinguishment of Indigenous Peoples."


id: 9db85c0f86dbb23f0c9be90dd9b27fa8
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"The extraordinary developments in the field of IK have crystallised the main tenant of interaction with the natural world that is 'integral \r\nto a cultural complex that also encompasses language, systems of classification, resource use practices, social interactions, ritual and \r\nspirituality' (UNESCO, 2017). Inuit have used their knowledge of the land and coastal seas to design technology, monitoring systems \r\n(Atlas of Community-Based Monitoring in a Changing Arctic, 2021) and new hunting routes that respond to the changes they face (Inuit \r\nCircumpolar Council, 2017; Nunavut Climate Change Center, 2018; SIKU, 2020). Such examples of 'adaptation success' across Inuit \r\nNunaat have been showcased and celebrated nationally and internationally (Youth Climate Report, 2019), and all are underpinned by \r\nInuit knowledge and pivot on their right to self-determination"


id: ac368a29b0d1c626f1e2bad3d523c676
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" This is also embodied, for example, in Canada; the National Inuit Climate \r\nChange Strategy outlines the collective Canadian Inuit plan for climate action, centring on Inuit-determined priorities to protect their \r\nculture, language and way of life, and guiding partners in how to work with Inuit on implementing this strategy (ITK, 2019). Their action \r\non adaptation also spans scales from local to international. As far back as 1977, Inuit have been organised and involved at the international \r\nlevel. Inuit were present at the Rio Earth Summit and have participated in diverse but interrelated United Nations conventions to protect \r\ntheir homelands (e.g., UNFCCC, CBD, Stockholm Convention). This history gives us unique insight and positions us as both leaders and \r\npartners with the ability to engage directly with governments, business and others."


id: 3c24d6f0b03eefbf44d405687eeaaa90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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"(Figure  CCP6.6). Some adaptation measures and opportunities \r\ninduce novel risks to other sectors or systems resulting in cascading \r\nand compounding consequences that are sometimes hard to predict \r\nor prepare for (Huntington et  al., 2015) (Table  CCP6.6). Adaptation \r\nplanning and implementation is greater in the Arctic than Antarctic \r\nregions, in part due to disparate magnitudes of realised climate impacts \r\nand change between regions (Figure CCP6.2; Table CCP6.1) but also \r\nbecause of the differing governance systems in place (Meredith et al., \r\n2019). In the Antarctic region, a climate action plan has been developed \r\nfor terrestrial systems but not for the Southern Ocean (Meredith et al., \r\n2019), although strategies for adapting to climate change have been \r\nproposed, including incorporation of precaution in decision making \r\n(Constable et al., 2017)"


id: fa70b7898b1b8f3e4057db2e3831457c
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" In the Arctic, climate change information is \r\nincreasingly integrated into research, policy and decision making \r\nincluding incorporation of climate change projections, forecasts and \r\nearly warnings (AMAP, 2017; AMAP, 2018a; Marshall et al., 2019; Dorn \r\nand Zador, 2020; Hollowed et al., 2020; Stram et al., 2021)."


id: 4bac34f2279d2b0702a0349c795e6d7e
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"Key risks arising from changing climate hazards are presented in \r\nTable CCP6.6 (details in SMCCP6.4). Changing levels and magnitude of \r\nclimate hazards translate into different levels of risks for ecosystems, \r\nindustry, society and infrastructure (Figure CCP6.4) (see Meredith et al., \r\n2019 Figures  3.5, 3.10 (Arctic), Figure  3.6 (Antarctic). In the Arctic, \r\nthese risks are often also shaped by non-climatic factors (Huntington \r\net al., 2019; Ford et al., 2021), including ongoing colonial legacies, land \r\ndispossession, landscape fragmentation and resulting challenges in \r\nthe valuing and meaningful use of IK and LK (Box CCP6.2) (Huntington \r\net  al., 2019; Kelman and Naess, 2019; Ford et  al., 2020)"


id: afae12af4c14f3ab1c7928d6d1ab77b1
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" Available \r\nliterature enabled assessment of particular polar assets based on \r\nprojected future risk and including consideration of non-climatic \r\ncompounding factors under 1degC, 2degC, 3degC and 4degC global warming \r\nabove pre-industrial level, including sea ice ecosystems, marine \r\nmammals, sea birds, fisheries, infrastructure (Arctic only), local mobility \r\n(Arctic only) and coastal erosion (Arctic only) (Figure CCP6.5) (details \r\nin SMCCP6.4)."


id: 681ceb013bba6f280bd87a4d943615d2
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content:
"Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Hudson and Vodden, 2020; Mustonen \r\nand Feodoroff, 2020; Uboni et al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021). For \r\nexample, IK and science has been used by the Skolt Sami in Finland to \r\nattenuate warming, drought and water quality impacts on salmonids \r\nthrough restoration of spawning and nursery habitats in the Vainosjoki \r\nRiver catchment (Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Mustonen and \r\nFeodoroff, 2020; Ogar et  al., 2020). This ecological restoration of \r\ndamaged habitats for fish represents community-led actions. In \r\nAasiaat, Greenlandic hunters have implemented community-based \r\noceanographic and ecological monitoring to convey IK observations \r\nof rapid change to the government and scientists"


id: d81ec28eb0814acfed4a489a5829a0ae
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" A special aspect of \r\nland use in the Russian North is the preservation of nomadic lifestyles \r\nof the Nenets and Chukchi (Mustonen and Mustonen, 2016), and \r\nwhile these traditional economies have undergone rapid change due \r\nto non-climate drivers, their land uses, observational frameworks and \r\ncultural matrixes remain of high importance in the context of climate \r\nchange. Endemic responses (self-agency from within the culture) \r\nand Indigenous governance enable adaptation to the rapid and \r\naccelerating changes under way (Mustonen et al., 2018a). Therefore, \r\ncommunity-based monitoring and inclusion of IK in dialogue with \r\nscience has been an effective mechanism to detect and respond to \r\nclimate change."


id: 52d1e22a26f25afb869b8a807ed97301
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"Adaptation strategies that are beneficial in the short term can \r\nresult in long-term maladaptive outcomes. For Indigenous Peoples, \r\nstrategies that fail to address colonialism, inequities and injustices \r\nundermine effective adaptation (Canosa et al., 2020; Schipper, 2020; \r\nFord et al., 2021). Large 'responsiveness gaps' between impacts and \r\nimplementation, approaches that fail to consider dynamic responses \r\nwithin social and ecological systems (which amplify or attenuate \r\nclimate impacts), and a paucity of a priori planning can contribute \r\nto maladaptation (high confidence) (Pentz and Klenk, 2017; Turner \r\net al., 2020b). For example, rationalisation (privatisation) can stabilise \r\nfisheries and incentivise long-term sustainability under stationary \r\nconditions, yet also promote low diversity in harvest (or livelihood) \r\nportfolios, and when combined with behaviours to offset climate \r\ndriven declines in yield (e.g"


id: 65ebc4dfdfe49bf7022b58edcf4eeac4
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", effort or price), rationalisation can create \r\nlock-in to declining stocks, increasing the risk of income variability \r\nand collapse (Kasperski and Holland, 2013; Pinkerton and Davis, 2015; \r\nHolland et al., 2017; Ojea et al., 2017; Anderies et al., 2019; Fisher et al., "


id: b4fc6b773bda003f648d57f138ada0af
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content:
"There are significant limits to adaptation in the polar regions related \r\nto the rate of warming and cascading changes that are occurring, \r\nwhich is equivalent to double and sometimes triple the global average \r\ndepending on the region (Bush and Lemmen, 2019; IPCC, 2021). The \r\nrapid pace of change, such as sea ice loss, can outpace ecological \r\nprocesses and induce substantial ecological shifts (CCP6.2) (medium \r\nconfidence). The speed of climate change in the Arctic limits options \r\nfor adaptation in communities who rely on a narrow resource base, \r\nwhen adaptation involves loss of culture and livelihoods, and when \r\nthe costs of adaptation make it infeasible (medium confidence) (Ford \r\net al., 2015), such as for reindeer herding (Table CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.6; \r\nFigure  CCP6.7) (Meredith et  al., 2019)"


id: 2315cdfdffc95ae13f4cddb42673a135
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content:
" Adapting infrastructure in \r\nresponse to a rapidly changing cryosphere will be limited by available \r\ntechnologies and the relatively higher costs associated with updating \r\ninfrastructure over vast polar regions (Schneider von Deimling et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 17bd21b6c1ca12f90bbb89dd12d710bc
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content:
"When environmental variability is within the range of these adaptive measures, the social-ecological system can \r\nthrive. Thus, there are fundamental components in place in polar regions already to help ecosystems and people \r\nadapt to some degree of climate change. However, as climate change impacts like warming waters, sea ice loss, \r\npermafrost thaw and erosion systematically alter components of the system, shift species increasingly poleward, and \r\ndisrupt linkages between species and people, the ability to adapt is reduced. There are critical tipping points (e.g., \r\nsea ice melt, permafrost thaw) where changes may cascade, self-reinforce and accelerate, outpacing adaptation \r\nactions and force natural and human systems irreversibly (on the scale of human existence) into novel regimes. \r\nThe risk of crossing tipping points is greater and the probability much increased after mid-century under scenarios \r\nwithout global carbon mitigation (SSP5 8"


id: bc4efd9c5a19f5ec724b1dc7180cf908
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content:
"Inclusive, low-cost participatory decision making can deliver equitable \r\nresponses to climate change (high confidence). Land use, maritime \r\nactivities and subsistence fishery and other extracted resources in \r\nthe polar regions are co-managed through multi-lateral and national \r\ngovernment bodies. The capacity of governance systems in some \r\nArctic regions to respond to climate change has strengthened recently \r\n(high confidence). Synthetic themes in adaptation for the Arctic have \r\nemerged from and since SROCC and include flexibility through diversity \r\nin livelihoods, and subsistence and harvest portfolios; co-management \r\nof resources; adaptive and ecosystem-based approaches; adoption \r\nof advanced technology, forecasts and longer-term projections to \r\nimprove safety and resources management; and imperative need for \r\nlow-cost, inclusive and participatory decision making (Kasperski and \r\nHolland, 2013; Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r\nGalappaththi et al"


id: dae92122cca78ed285e833304604998b
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", 2019; Holsman et al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021; \r\nMelbourne-Thomas et al., 2021; Mustonen and Van Dam, 2021). This \r\nwas demonstrated in community-level adaptation by Pangnirtung Inuit \r\nto climate change impacts on fisheries (Galappaththi et  al., 2019). \r\nInclusive approaches to co-management, especially those that enable \r\ndiverse perspectives, embrace conflict, and address equity and justice \r\nacross power holders, can help alleviate the risk and promote solutions \r\n(Raymond-Yakoubian et  al., 2017; Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; \r\nParlee and Wiber, 2018; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Snook \r\net  al., 2020). Integration across levels of management and diverse \r\nregional perspectives can reduce climate risks and support equitable \r\nadaptation measures (Allison and Bassett, 2015; Raymond-Yakoubian \r\net  al., 2017; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Holsman et  al., \r\n2020)."


id: b3832029e99ab6fc452960c72fe24888
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content:
"Decision making in polar regions is complicated by globalisation \r\nprocesses and the complexity of governance arrangements from local \r\nto global instruments and differing stakeholder perspectives and \r\nneeds (Hughes et  al., 2018; Stephen, 2018; Huntington et  al., 2021; \r\nMurphy et al., 2021; Solomonsz et al., 2021). Substantial interest in \r\nand management of polar resources from non-polar states can lead \r\nto decision making that lacks explicit consideration of local impacts \r\nand responses, thus reducing the effectiveness of adaptation and, in \r\nsome cases, causing maladaptation. Participatory decision making \r\nis increasingly used in some sectors, but high costs of participation, \r\na focus on consensus, and systematic erosion of resources can \r\nundermine outcomes (Mumby et  al., 2017; Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r\nMendenhall et al., 2020)"


id: b75d7f1299bbcf9ee875bf617810e316
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content:
" In the Arctic, the societal burden of climate \r\nchange impacts and risks will manifest at the local level, and thus \r\nthe importance of local scale leadership and involvement in decision \r\nmaking is essential for effective adaptation (AMAP, 2017)."


id: f9e8b9b6441dae39015570cb98ff394f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"and resilience and promote adaptive pathways (Cinner et  al., 2016; \r\nWeymouth and Hartz-Karp, 2019), although explicit measures may \r\nbe needed to reduce costs and increase representation, enhance \r\ntransparency, embrace dissent and clarify accountability are needed \r\nas these are not inherent outcomes (Lynham et al., 2017; Parlee and \r\nWiber, 2018). EBM, which includes provisions aimed at sustaining \r\ncritical connections within and among social and ecological systems, \r\nenhances resilience and attenuates climate impacts on ecosystems and \r\nprovisioning services; for example, EBM enhances climate resilience \r\nfor Antarctic krill and Northeast Arctic cod fisheries (Troell et  al., \r\n2017; Meyer et al., 2020) and forestalls fishery collapse in the Bering \r\nSea in the near term (Holsman et al., 2020)"


id: b4e05f900b82413f8a88459578f98d6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 25994
content:
" Increasing likelihood of \r\ntransboundary resources, interactions and novel commerce may strain \r\nexisting regulatory and international agreements, suggesting that a \r\npriori governance agreements designed to manage climate risks and \r\naimed at attenuating potential conflicts over resources and regions \r\nmay be important for resolving these issues (Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r\nMendenhall et al., 2020)."


id: 9e5ace04aff71c0e868b18e8b237b943
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 22439
content:
"Climate change disproportionately impacts Indigenous Peoples \r\n(Box  CCP6.2), which directly affects their livelihoods, health and \r\nSustainable Development Goal targets. For residents in the Arctic, \r\na sustainable development pathway has been found to be highly \r\neffective if a self-determined development model is employed (very \r\nhigh confidence). Known determinants of Indigenous self-determined \r\ndevelopment in regions in the Arctic, include: (1) Indigenous self\u0002determined decision making (and inherent sovereignty); (2) effective \r\nand culturally legitimate institutions of government; (3) strategic \r\nvision and strategic thinking; and (4) public-spirited, nation-building \r\nleadership (Cornell and Kalt, 1992; Cornell and Kalt, 1998; Cornell and \r\nKalt, 2007; Ritsema et  al., 2015)"


id: 44f135b84c7010fac0d7874c1a130fcc
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vector_id: 8274
content:
" For Indigenous Peoples, advances \r\nin recognition of self-governance, land and resource sovereignty, \r\nand resource co-management, particularly in the North American \r\nArctic but also elsewhere, provide a strong basis for responding \r\nto climate impacts (Ford et  al., 2015; Robards et  al., 2018). These \r\ndevelopments expand the solution space (Haasnoot et al., 2020) for "


id: 142c6163ad332c2fd41a8846d92a173a
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content:
"responding to climate impacts, although historical and ongoing forms \r\nof colonialism in research and government institutions continues \r\nto undermine Indigenous self-determination and reinforce climate \r\nchange vulnerability (Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Whyte et al., 2019; Ford \r\net al., 2020; Snook et al., 2020). Readiness for adaptation across Arctic \r\nnations continues to be challenged by a number of factors, including \r\nthe existence of pressing socioeconomic challenges, institutional \r\nand governmental barriers, lack of meaningful inclusion of IK in \r\ngovernment planning and response, and lack of financial resources \r\n(Ford et al., 2015; Loring et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017; Ford et al., 2017; \r\nBirchall and Bonnett, 2019) (AMAP, 2018a)"


id: 28b1bae40a2e0db673a09930dd8061e8
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" In Alaska, for example, the \r\nneed to relocate high-risk villages has been recognised by researchers, \r\ndecision makers and communities themselves for some time, and while \r\nprogress is being made in some locations (Ristroph, 2017), institutional \r\nbarriers have generally resulted in negligible progress (Bronen and \r\nChapin, 2013; Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Albert et al., 2018; Rosales \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 4ebdae9f5814a8503a07f3d879b1127d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Rapid changes occurring in polar systems are clear and unequivocal, \r\nindicating that swift and effective responses are urgently needed \r\nto avoid substantial future impacts and reduce risks to polar social \r\nand ecological systems. Some underlying principles emerge from this \r\nassessment that appear fundamental to achieving climate resilient \r\ndevelopment in polar systems (Figure  CCP6.8) because they could \r\nfacilitate rapid, equitable and just responses to achieve climate \r\nresilience. These principles include having locally relevant and \r\naccessible tools and services (e.g., regional forecasts and projections) \r\nto support climate-informed decision making, along with adequate \r\nand appropriate resourcing (including finance and integrated \r\nplanning) for climate adaptation and for responding to emergencies"


id: a8c38b683c5a7fbe63f8837a78042287
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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" \r\nEffective decision making processes integrate across sectors, all levels \r\nof governance, including through multi-national instruments, and, \r\nmost importantly, apply low-cost and inclusive participatory processes \r\nto address gender, equitable and socially just outcomes. In the Arctic, \r\nthere is evidence that overcoming colonialism through meaningful \r\nand explicit inclusion of IK in research and resource management, as \r\nwell as co-management and self-determination in decision making, \r\nare effective measures to support equitable climate resilience across \r\nmultiple sectors. Lastly, climate resilience is strongly dependent on \r\nboth mitigation of climate change as well as effective adaptation to \r\nmeet the challenges of unprecedented change in polar regions."


id: dc0dcb2994527216a579fe4eecf7fc63
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"Climate change is already impacting tropical forests around the world, \r\nincluding through distributional shifts of forest biomes, changes in \r\nspecies composition, biomass, pests and diseases, and increases in \r\nforest fires (high confidence). These impacts are often compounded by \r\nnon-climatic factors such as conversion of land for other uses, burning \r\nto clear land, mining, and road and infrastructure development. It is \r\nnotable that, despite societal awareness and financial opportunities \r\nto restore forests (Brancalion and Chazdon, 2017), tropical forests are \r\nincreasingly threatened. For instance, the conversion of tropical forests \r\nto large-scale agricultural production (mainly soybeans, oil palm, maize, \r\ncotton, livestock), is among the strongest drivers of species richness \r\ndecline of both flora and fauna, thereby impacting the adaptation \r\nopportunities of ecosystems and local people to climate change (IPBES, \r\n2018)"


id: 10662a7d9c0e1cb342a1d085c2ba17be
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content:
" Reducing direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and forest \r\ndegradation is therefore critical to building, maintaining or enhancing \r\nthe resilience of tropical forests against climate and non-climate \r\ndrivers alike (high confidence)."


id: d779b2179eee291a73233efac48365f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Building on what has been presented in IPCC AR5, SR15 and SRCCL, \r\nSection CCP7.2 first briefly describes the types and extent of tropical \r\nforest ecosystems, and then looks at current rates and drivers of \r\ndeforestation and forest degradation. Section CCP7.3 presents current \r\nand projected climate change impacts on tropical trees and forests, \r\nfocusing primarily on drought, heat and fires, looking from physiological \r\nresponses to risks, projected climate change impact and forest \r\nresilience. Section CCP7.4 addresses the impacts of climate change \r\nand tropical forest destruction on the livelihoods and well-being of \r\ncommunities and peoples living in or being strongly dependent upon \r\ntropical forests. This section includes a Box on Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local knowledge and community-based adaptation. Section \r\nCCP7"


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"5 assesses adaptation options for the sustainable management \r\nof tropical forests drawing upon the protection, management and \r\nrestoration framework, and includes a Box on the connection between \r\nsustainable forest management and the United Nations Sustainable \r\nDevelopment Goals. Section CCP7.6, finally, assesses opportunities \r\nand challenges of tropical forest governance to maintain and enhance \r\nresilience against climate change impacts on forests."


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"forest, tropical shrubland, tropical dry forest and tropical mountain \r\nsystem (Table  CCP7.1; Figure  CCP7.2). Mangroves are not explicitly \r\nconsidered in the FAO classification. Tropical rainforest occurs largely \r\nin South America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia, and is the \r\nmost intact tropical forest biome (Table CCP7.1). Significant portions \r\nof tropical moist forest, which abut tropical rainforest in many regions \r\nbut experience a longer dry season, have been lost in most regions \r\n(Table CCP7.2). Tropical moist forest typically grades into the highly \r\nthreatened tropical dry forest ecological zone, of which only about a \r\nthird exists under forest cover at present. Only about 44% of tropical \r\nmountain systems, which occur approximately above 1000 m above \r\nmean sea level, are presently under forest cover"


id: 9bc38bb3dbd2bb05e748ce0fa7c5e31f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22066
content:
" While the FAO \r\nclassification provides the potential tropical ecological zones (roughly, \r\n'vegetation types'), there are large differences in the extents of global \r\ntropical forest biomes which are still remaining as reported by different \r\nsources (Sayre et al., 2020; Ocon et al., 2021). These differences result \r\nfrom differences in biome definition, data source, the definition of \r\n'forest', and the method used for classifying remotely sensed data. For \r\nexample, the reported global area of tropical dry forests ranges from \r\n105 to 645 Mha (Pan et al., 2013; Bastin et al., 2017; Ocon et al., 2021)."


id: 1423987548afdab7be2b54171a61e06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 681
content:
"75% of taxa extinction found in Earth's 'big five' mass extinction events \r\n(Barnosky et al., 2011; Diaz et al., 2019; Davison et al., 2021). Even \r\nthough species-area relationships tend to overestimate extinction \r\nrates (He and Hubbell, 2011), there is evidence that species richness \r\nin tropical forests is alarmingly approaching or surpassing the taxa \r\nextinction value in this period (45% for dung beetles, 51% for lizards, \r\n65% for ants, and 80% for mammals) should deforestation and habitat \r\nloss continue at the current pace (Alroy, 2017; Ceballos et al., 2017). \r\nMoreover, there is reasonable understanding that these numbers are \r\nunderestimated and, as such, tropical forest loss and degradation \r\nalone will precipitate a sixth mass extinction event (Giam, 2017). A \r\ntotal of 13 out of the 25 global biodiversity hotspots for conservation \r\nare located in tropical forests, such as Brazil's Atlantic Forest and \r\nIndia's Western Ghats/Sri Lanka (Myers et al., 2000)"


id: a295d67ba6a0d17f51d2fe96512ae978
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23142
content:
"Deforestation and forest degradation both affect carbon stocks, \r\nbiodiversity loss and the provision of ecosystem services, leading to \r\na reduction in resilience to climate change and exacerbating forest \r\nlandscape vulnerability even in the absence of direct anthropogenic \r\naction (high confidence) (Barlow et  al., 2016; Aleixo et  al., 2019; \r\nFeng et  al., 2021; Saatchi et  al., 2021). There is also clear evidence \r\nof deforestation influencing temperatures and the hydrological cycle \r\nat local to regional scales resulting in reduced precipitation and \r\nevaporation and increased runoff relative to unaffected areas (high \r\nconfidence) [CCP7.3.6] (Jia et al., 2019; Douville et al., 2021). Negative \r\ntrends in biodiversity and ecosystems are predicted to undermine \r\n80% of the Sustainable Development Goals targets related to poverty, \r\nhunger, health, water, cities, climate, oceans and land (IPBES, 2019)"


id: aae15db55703913891429be9e654597f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24402
content:
" \r\nTherefore, besides greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, reducing the \r\ndriving forces leading to deforestation and forest degradation is of \r\nthe utmost importance for forest resilience, biodiversity protection, \r\navoiding regional climatic changes and the provision of critical \r\necosystem services, and communities whose livelihoods depend on \r\nforests (high confidence) (Curtis et  al., 2018; IPBES, 2019; Jia et  al., \r\n2019; Seymour and Harris, 2019; Portner et al., 2021; Saatchi et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 442304f1552651a1a7582bb152598340
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8139
content:
"International and market forces, particularly commodity markets and, \r\nincreasingly, large-scale land acquisitions are also key underlying \r\ndrivers (high confidence) (Assuncao et al., 2015; Henders et al., 2015; \r\nConigliani et al., 2018; Ingalls et al., 2018; Garrett et al., 2019; Pendrill\r\net al., 2019b; Kissinger, 2020; Neef, 2020; Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021) \r\n[WGII Chapter 5.13]. Deforestation related to commodity imports is \r\nincreasing, illustrating the growing influence of global markets in \r\ndeforestation dynamics (Henders et al., 2015). Although some of this \r\nproduction is consumed domestically, 29-39% of deforestation was \r\ndriven by international trade, primarily from Europe, China, the Middle \r\nEast and North America (Pendrill et al., 2019a)"


id: 5153e4ee4758e3eab61e0f0f9b5b14f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10250
content:
" While many developed \r\ncountries, as well as China and India, have achieved net domestic \r\nforest gains, their consumption patterns have increased deforestation \r\nembodied in their imports to varying degrees, frequently from \r\nbiodiversity hotspots (Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021). Fifty percent of the \r\nbiodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies \r\noccurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting et  al., 2017). The \r\nincreasing prominence of medium- and large-scale clearings of forest \r\nbetween 2000 and 2012, particularly in Southeast Asia and South \r\nAmerica, suggests the growing need for policy interventions targeting \r\nindustrial-scale agricultural commodity producers (Austin et al., 2017). \r\nHowever, countries have been slow to address underlying drivers such \r\nas international demand for agricultural commodities"


id: 1013d47246486dc333561eda8f9eba4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13
content:
" A review of \r\n43 countries' REDD+ readiness documents found that proposed policy \r\ninterventions largely missed the agricultural drivers identified (Salvini\r\net al., 2014). An assessment of policy responses to rubber and coffee \r\nproduction highlights the challenges governments face in identifying \r\ncorrelations between the direct drivers and related underlying drivers, \r\nwith international drivers being the most challenging to address \r\n(Kissinger, 2020)."


id: 1d6414ed672ba9f37a7a76870c87f8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2069
content:
"The temperature response of photosynthetic carbon uptake in tropical \r\ntrees seems remarkably similar across moist and dry forest types, as \r\nwell as for light-demanding, fast-growing species compared with \r\nshade-tolerant, slow-growing species (Slot and Winter, 2017). It is \r\ngenerally agreed that photosynthesis in tropical species can acclimate \r\nto moderate levels of warming but beyond this there would be no \r\nnet gain in carbon (Slot and Winter, 2017). The factor that limits \r\nphotosynthesis in different tropical forests will depend on water \r\navailability. In water-limited dry forests, photosynthesis may decline \r\nlargely due to stomatal closure, while in wet forests the decline may \r\nlargely be driven by warming-related changes to leaf biochemistry \r\n(Slot and Winter, 2017)"


id: 38a914a289b0f816b48ddfe815e1c249
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 6285
content:
" A recent modelling approach suggests that \r\nthe limits of photosynthetic thermal acclimation may be an increase of \r\nabout 2degC, in terms of maximum tolerated temperature, with enhanced \r\ntree mortality beyond this level of warming (Sterck et al., 2016)."


id: fc90176e4d4ea058b1449bdffe4bfecf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 37254
content:
"A critical concern for plant function has been that higher temperatures \r\nwill enhance respiration rates, potentially resulting in tropical forests \r\nbecoming net carbon sources (rather than photosynthesis-driven \r\ncarbon sinks) (Gatti et al., 2021). Some studies suggest that excessive \r\nrespiration is less of a concern as respiration rates can acclimate \r\nto elevated temperatures over time (Lombardozzi et  al., 2015; Pau \r\net  al., 2018). Thermal acclimation of respiration has been shown in \r\na seasonally dry neotropical forest (Slot et  al., 2014), while models \r\nindicate that increases in plant respiration could halve by the end of \r\nthe 21st century through acclimation, thereby partly ameliorating the \r\npotential release of carbon from tropical forests (Vanderwel et  al., \r\n2015)"


id: 65c0d065838426838f0be064b5905952
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13589
content:
" A contrary view is that plant physiological processes, such as \r\nthe photosynthesis in tropical canopy trees, are already functioning \r\nat levels close to or beyond their thermal optimum limits and that any \r\nfurther temperature increase would turn them from a sink into a carbon \r\nsource (Mau et al., 2018). One of the most pressing questions regarding \r\nforest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is whether trees \r\nexperience enhanced growth rates as a result of the so-called CO2\r\nfertilisation effect [Box 2.3 in IPCC 2019b]. Observed changes in the \r\nterrestrial carbon sink and process-based vegetation models indicate \r\nthat tropical vegetation response to CO2 fertilisation (Schimel et al., \r\n2015) is combined with other factors such as nitrogen deposition \r\nand length of the growing season, while aerosol-induced cooling \r\nmay also have played a role in enhancing the carbon sink [Box 2.3 in \r\nIPCC 2019b]"


id: b80b7c52f904daacd13be674d3712d94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26488
content:
" Contrastingly, evidence for CO2 fertilisation of growth \r\nin individual tropical tree species is generally lacking or controversial \r\n(Silva and Anand, 2013), or not as substantial as expected (Sampaio \r\net  al., 2021). It is, however, widely agreed that the intrinsic water\u0002use efficiency of a tree, that is, the amount of carbon assimilated as \r\nbiomass per unit of water used, increases under elevated atmospheric \r\nCO2 levels owing to the regulation of stomata (cells on the leaf surface \r\nwhich regulate the exchange of water and gases between the plant \r\nand the atmosphere) (Van Der Sleen et al., 2015; Bartlett et al., 2016; \r\nRahman and Alam, 2016; Keeling et  al., 2017). Tropical dry forests \r\n(ca. 1000 mm annual rainfall) exhibit changes in water-use efficiency \r\n(WUE), relative to CO2, at least twice as much as tropical moist forests \r\n(c. 4000 mm rainfall) (Adams et al., 2019)."


id: 5197d3ee71c1dd6291305030f27dc31d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10293
content:
"Drought-related mortality of tropical trees shows complex patterns \r\nwhich could change forest community structure and composition \r\nwith cascading effects on biodiversity (McDowell et al., 2020). During \r\ndrought, the mortality rate is enhanced in larger-sized trees in tropical \r\nforests (as is the case with all forests globally), with significant impacts \r\non forest structure, carbon storage and regional hydrology (Bennett\r\net al., 2015). The mortality rate of neotropical moist forest trees appears \r\nto be consistently increasing since the 1980s (McDowell et al., 2020), \r\nwith plant functional types such as softwood, pioneer and evergreen \r\nspecies suffering higher mortality during years of extreme drought \r\n(Aleixo et al., 2019). Large trees (>30 cm diameter at breast height \r\n(dbh)) in tropical dry forests have much lower mortality rates than \r\nthose reported for tropical moist forests (Suresh et al., 2010)"


id: 670fe6b61176a3a01cdeaf978f56f38e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13801
content:
" Contrary \r\nto expectation, during prolonged droughts in these dry forests, deeper\u0002rooted tree species are more likely to die than shallow-rooted ones, \r\nwhich are more adapted to changes in soil moisture content, because \r\nof water depletion in the deepest unsaturated zone (Chitra-Tarak et al., \r\n2018)."


id: b732929fcf27802ba5a8da4d8d439a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26356
content:
"Regeneration of tropical tree seedlings and their response to a \r\nchanging climate is inadequately understood. Experimental work \r\nsuggests that tropical moist forest tree seedlings and saplings can \r\nacclimate photosynthetically to moderate levels of warming and, \r\nunlike adults, may even exhibit increased growth rates (Cheesman \r\nand Winter, 2013; Slot and Winter, 2018). Some moist forest seedlings \r\nalso show plasticity to recurrent drought episodes by enhancing their \r\ngrowth rates when favourable moisture conditions return, while others \r\nfail to respond (O'Brien et al., 2017). The nature of response also seems \r\nto be mediated by neighbourhood diversity, with greater plasticity in \r\nmore diverse communities (O'Brien et al., 2017). Seedlings in tropical \r\ndry forests subject to burning show enhanced growth rates post-fire \r\nand within two years attain similar height of seedlings in unburnt \r\nareas (Pulla et al"


id: 3b1d13295d0010ab6aa3f650780f269d
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content:
", 2015), though the environmental drivers of seedling \r\ngrowth post-fire are not well understood (Bhadouria et al., 2017)."


id: e25b4576b14dfda76f9563a35ed0f098
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 33118
content:
"The net outcome of the population dynamics processes of growth, \r\nmortality and regeneration is change in species composition as a \r\nconsequence of a changing climate. In the Amazon forests, dry habitat\u0002affiliated genera have become more abundant among the newly \r\nrecruited trees, while the mortality of moist habitat-affiliated genera \r\nhas increased in places where the dry season has intensified most, \r\nthus driving a slow shift towards a drier forest type (Esquivel-Muelbert\r\net al., 2019). A similar multi-decadal shift in West-African forest species \r\ncomposition towards more dry-affiliated species as a response to long\u0002term drying has been recorded (Aguirre-Gutierrez et al., 2020). While \r\nupward shifts in the tree line and in the range of individual tree species \r\nhave been recorded at several temperate mountain regions, evidence \r\nfrom the tropics is rare"


id: 60a1e2a3a2a25fd2d58282ae93a789c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12773
content:
" A large-scale study from 200 plot inventories of \r\n>2000 tree species across a ~3000 m elevation gradient in the Andean \r\ntropics and sub-tropics has shown that the relative abundances of tree \r\nspecies from lower, warmer locations were increasing at these sites \r\nindicating that 'thermophilisation of vegetation' (increased domination \r\nof plant species from warmer locations) was indeed taking place as \r\nexpected (Fadrique et al., 2018) [Section 2.5.4.2.1 in Chapter 2]."


id: d50e6386dbd540ab02c457f3060503cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31051
content:
"Temperature rise and prolonged droughts increase the danger of fires \r\nin drained peatlands and tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the \r\nAmazon (da Silva et al., 2018; Pan et al., 2018; Sullivan Martin et al., \r\n2020), resulting in large carbon emissions, which reached 11.3 Tg \r\nCO2 day-1 during September-October 2015 (Huijnen et  al., 2016; \r\nYin et al., 2020) and changes in forest composition and biodiversity \r\n(Asner et al., 2000; Hoffmann et al., 2003) (high confidence). In many \r\ncases, tree mortality due to fire is poorly recorded in the literature, \r\nbut the available data suggest that fire-induced mortality has \r\nincreased in recent years (Figure CCP7.2) (Malhi et al., 2014; Brando\r\net al., 2019) (high confidence)"


id: fafb5b6d5e08780bb852075ab0093907
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 37006
content:
" While large forest and peat fires used \r\nto be associated mainly with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) \r\nevents, there is now evidence that tropical rainforests in Indonesia \r\nmay experience higher fire danger from increased temperatures even \r\nduring non-drought years due to high evaporation rates of fragmented \r\nforests (Fernandes et al., 2017; McAlpine et al., 2018). The droughts of \r\n2007 and 2010 in the Amazonian region caused 12% and 5% of the \r\nsoutheastern Amazon forests to burn, respectively, as compared with \r\n<1% of these forests burning during non-drought years (Brando et al., \r\n2014; da Silva Junior et al., 2019; Pontes-Lopes et al., 2021). Moreover, \r\ndegraded forests in Ghana are more vulnerable to fires during droughts \r\n(Dwomoh et al., 2019)."


id: 4f811ab3b9e8ba98845e64a7500226c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 9943
content:
"levels in the atmosphere (Mitchard, 2018). CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth \r\nSystem Models (ESM) project an increasing future tropical carbon sink, \r\nwhich is particularly strong in the scenarios with more pronounced \r\nincreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration (Koch et  al., 2021). \r\nHowever, major uncertainties regarding the ecophysiological processes \r\ngoverning carbon turnover and tree mortality under a changing \r\nclimate (Hartmann et al., 2015; Pugh et al., 2020), and the ecosystem\u0002level responses of tropical forests to elevated atmospheric CO2 (Korner, \r\n2009) explain the contrast between observational data and modelling \r\nresults (Rammig and Lapola, 2021)"


id: 96fca757652dcc623fc17d1afcf65c0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21269
content:
" Observational data show that \r\nstructurally intact old-growth tropical forests have been net sinks of \r\natmospheric carbon in recent decades, but there is evidence that the \r\ncapacity of such intact tropical forests to build up carbon stock may be \r\nlimited as biomass peaked during the 1990s and has since weakened \r\nby 30% in the Amazon since the 1990s (high confidence), mainly due \r\nto increased tree mortality and faster carbon turnover, and the African \r\ntropical forest sink following this trend since about 2010 (Hubau et al., \r\n2020; Gatti et al., 2021). From a peak pan-tropical (Amazonia, Africa \r\nand Southeast Asia) forest sink of 1.26 Pg C yr-1 during the 1990s, it \r\nis projected to decline to an uptake of only 0.29 Pg C yr-1, reaching \r\nzero in the Amazon, during the 2030s (Hubau et al., 2020)"


id: 2f92fa9855ab2d98fc1928e070bbd482
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 4905
content:
" This decline \r\nwill possibly be driven by the reduced rates of forest carbon uptake \r\nfrom the weakening global CO2 fertilisation effect mediated by limiting \r\nsoil nutrient, and reduced water availability and higher temperatures \r\nduring extreme droughts (Qie et al., 2017; Fleischer et al., 2019; Wang \r\net al., 2020), reinforced by deforestation and forest degradation [IPCC \r\nSRCCL, 2019]."


id: 3952c75f9001f2005caf51bf4e7bf111
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6395
content:
"Besides higher temperatures, current climate risks also depend on \r\nregional responses to a variety of climate events. For example, tropical \r\nbiomes across the three continents may respond differently to ENSO \r\nevents in terms of carbon fluxes and balance. During the 2015-2016 \r\nENSO event, different processes were dominant for the carbon fluxes \r\nanomaly in the tropical regions. In Asian forests, this anomaly was \r\nprimarily derived from enhanced fire occurrence, in African forests \r\nthrough increased ecosystem respiration (from higher temperatures), \r\nand in South American forests by ecophysiological effects, through the \r\ngross primary production (GPP) expressed as reduced carbon uptake \r\n(Liu et al., 2017; van Schaik et al., 2018). It has also been shown that \r\nthe probability of drought spells at the beginning and end of the rainy \r\nseason is higher in the areas with the highest deforestation (Leite-Filho\r\net al., 2019)"


id: af52c041ee81014253d58519331df206
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25100
content:
" Furthermore, it has been observed that Amazon rainforest \r\nresilience is being lost faster in regions with less rainfall and in parts \r\nof the rainforest that are closer to human activity (IPCC, 2014; Seiler\r\net al., 2015) (CCP7.3.6). Conversely, it has been pointed out, on the \r\nbasis of vegetation indices, that temperature has a greater influence \r\non resilience than does precipitation, and tropical forests are more \r\nresilient to climate change when they are more diverse (Feng et al., \r\n2021) (CCP7.3.6)."


id: 66e22f4b562a6eaf383e10197984a264
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13779
content:
"Biomes such as seasonally dry tropical forests subject to higher \r\nvariability in rainfall or other climatic factors may be more resilient \r\nto fire and drought (Pulla et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017), though there \r\ncould be changes in species distributions as a result of disturbances \r\n(Allen et  al., 2017). A regime of long-term, high rainfall variability \r\nseems to be critical in determining the overall resilience of tropical \r\nforests and savannas to climate disturbances (Ciemer et  al., 2019), \r\nhighlighting the heterogeneity of the tropical landscape to climate \r\nrisk. Similarly, forest composition, nutrient limitations and biodiversity \r\ncan influence forest resilience to disturbances. Recent evidence \r\nsuggests that the degree of forest disturbance also affects the \r\nmechanisms through which biodiversity influences forest functioning \r\n(Schmitt et al., 2020)"


id: 4813c434854cedfc09d416b1b17fbdf0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8713
content:
" Neotropical secondary forests also showed high \r\nresilience by maintaining their biomass through high productivity and \r\nrates of recovery following major disturbances (Poorter et al., 2016). \r\nHowever, the possibility of tropical forests reaching 'tipping points' \r\nin their resilience and experiencing rapid die-off cannot be ruled out \r\n(Verbesselt et al., 2016)."


id: c4093528025a3024c18e618700c0c444
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vector_id: 28410
content:
"Offline (uncoupled) vegetation model simulations indicate that the \r\nextensive tropical and subtropical forests of the Americas could \r\ngradually transit towards a savanna-like vegetation, with the most \r\npronounced shifts (of up to 600 km northward) from relatively \r\nstable forests to savanna-forest transitions occurring in the eastern \r\nAmazonian region (Huntingford et al., 2013; Anadon et al., 2014; Nobre\r\net  al., 2016) depending largely on the yet uncertain strength of the \r\nCO2 fertilisation effect and future dry season length, with important \r\nfeedbacks on the flux of moisture from the forest to the atmosphere \r\n(Zemp et  al., 2017). More limited simulations for Central American \r\nrainforests under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also support a transition in some \r\nareas to lower biomass tropical dry forest and savanna-like vegetation \r\n(Lyra et  al., 2017)"


id: 5ac19cb7e438467b00e2da7f8b86ca16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11790
content:
" Such transitions from one biome type to another \r\nwill cause major changes in forest structure, species compositions and \r\noverall biodiversity. Additionally, the difficulty of species to migrate \r\nthrough highly fragmented tropical forested regions (such as West \r\nAfrica or South and Southeast Asia) and 'non-analogue climates', under \r\na climate change scenario, poses extra pressure on tropical biodiversity \r\nto adapt and survive (Portner et al., 2021). Even in expansive tracts of \r\nforests, such as in the Amazon, climate change is expected to become \r\nmore important than deforestation by 2050 in causing the loss of tree \r\nspecies (Gomes et al., 2019). Tropical mountain biodiversity hotspots \r\n(e.g., Andes, Himalayas) are particularly vulnerable to species loss due \r\nto elevation range shifts (Sekercioglu et al., 2008). Under a 2degC increase \r\nscenario, a substantial reduction of tropical montane cloud forest in \r\nKenya is estimated (Los et al., 2019)."


id: 8ee267e7e7f46f4fe88038ce96899a3f
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"Ecological adaptation and other spontaneous responses to climate \r\nchange are discussed in Settele et al. (2015) and [AR6 WGII_Chapter \r\n2] Here we consider the role of humans in managing the adaptation \r\nof tropical forests to climate change. The focus is on human-assisted \r\nadaptation options that help to maintain tropical forest ecosystems \r\nand not on the use of forests to supply provisioning services, such as \r\ntimber, which is covered in [AR6 WGII_Chapter 5]. Forest management \r\nand agroforestry are discussed, but only with regard to their role in \r\ncontributing to the adaptation of tropical ecosystems now and in the \r\nfuture. Maintaining ecosystems has a range of co-benefits for humans, \r\nincluding through 'ecosystem-based adaptation'. These are explored \r\nin [Box 1.3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2, Box CCP7.2]"


id: 9471cb28d439513a31fd9c66e05ae309
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" \r\nAlthough there are a number of potentially valuable response \r\noptions, it is clear that certain hazards, such as heatwaves, may be \r\nimpossible to manage at the forest community level and require long\u0002term interventions at the landscape scale. Similarly, it will be difficult \r\nfor forest managers to adapt to indirect climate-related ecosystem \r\ndisturbances such as loss of pollination agents, invasive species or \r\npest and diseases outbreaks (Allen et al., 2010; Anderegg et al., 2020). \r\nEqually important in adapting to increased pressure from climate \r\nchange are efforts to minimise disturbance from non-climatic stress \r\nfactors (e.g., overharvesting, pollution and land use change; Malhi\r\net al., 2014; Keenan, 2015; Barlow et al., 2016; Portner et al., 2021)"


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" \r\nUnder some emissions scenarios, projected climate change impacts are \r\nof such severity that no adaptation measure is likely to protect natural \r\nforest systems; for example, with warming of 4degC, some tropical \r\nforests are at risk of die-back from high temperature (Malhi et  al., \r\n2014; Settele et al., 2015; Trumbore et al., 2015)."


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"The decrease of tropical forest area due to land-use change will put \r\nadditional pressures, threatening livelihood practices, traditional land \r\narrangements and customary rights of forest-dependent communities, \r\nand impacting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of Climate \r\nAction and Life on Land (Djoudi and Brockhaus, 2011; Tiani et  al., \r\n2015; Hurlbert et  al., 2019). Globalised trade relations, agricultural \r\nexpansion, illegal activities and violent conflicts have been identified as \r\nimportant non-climatic drivers of forest degradation (high confidence) \r\n(Barr and Sayer, 2012; Rist et  al., 2012; Shanley et  al., 2012; Ruiz\u0002Mallen et al., 2017; IPBES, 2018; IPBES et al., 2018). Globally, about \r\n70% of tropical forest areas occur outside protected areas"


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" In Latin \r\nAmerica and the Caribbean, Indigenous Peoples and local communities \r\nhave predominant ownership of tropical forest lands, while in West \r\nand Central Africa and Asia, forested areas are largely state-owned \r\nwith exacerbating problems of governance, inequity and conflict with \r\ncustomary land tenure systems (Blaser et al., , 2011)."


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"Further research by experts and local stakeholders and Indigenous \r\nPeoples is required to design more accurate and comprehensive \r\nindicators (Huong et  al., 2019). Solid evidence shows important \r\nknowledge and experiences that Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities contribute to disaster risk reduction and management \r\n(IPBES, 2018a). Recognising the land rights of Indigenous Peoples \r\nis among the most cost-effective actions to address climate and \r\nbiodiversity risks according to FAO and FILAC (2021). In Indigenous \r\nPeoples' forest lands in the Amazon basin, deforestation rates are up \r\nto 50% lower than in other forested areas (Ding et  al., 2016), and \r\nIndigenous management is correlated with reduced carbon emissions \r\n(Blackman and Veit, 2018)"


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" Indigenous authors and local authors have \r\npointed out the role of traditional systems of governance, knowledge \r\nand belief systems in the resilience of Indigenous Peoples and rural \r\ncommunities in the Amazonian and Andean regions, by regulating seed \r\naccess and the conservation of agrobiodiversity and tropical forest \r\n(Camico et  al., 2021; Mustonen et  al., 2021). In the Philippines, the \r\ntraditional land use system Muyong promotes sustainable agroforestry \r\nmanagement based on customary land laws (Camacho et al., 2016). \r\nParticipation of local stakeholders and the inclusion of a gender \r\nperspective contribute to prioritising resource allocation and the \r\ndevelopment of effective legal frameworks for adaptation (Shah et al., \r\n2013; Tiani et al., 2015; Ihalainen et al., 2017; Collantes et al., 2018)"


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" \r\nThere is a need to combine quantitative and qualitative methods, and \r\nincrease research efforts to integrated approaches; including multi\u0002scalar and interdisciplinary assessments of vulnerability (Djoudi et al., \r\n2013; Guidi et al., 2018; FAO and CIFOR, 2019)."


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"Actions to protect the extent or reduce the disturbance pressure \r\non forest systems contribute to the capacity of these systems to \r\nrespond to climate change (increasing resistance and resilience) (high \r\nconfidence) (Millar et  al., 2007; Schmitz et  al., 2015; Settele et  al., \r\n2015; Sakschewski et al., 2016; Hisano et al., 2018). Furthermore, if \r\nimplemented sufficiently well, efforts to manage and restore forests \r\nalso improve the capacity of forest systems to respond to future climate \r\nstressors (increasing resilience and responsiveness). Table  CCP7.3 \r\ngives an overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests \r\nwithin the framework of protect, manage, restore (Sayer et al., 2003; \r\nPortner et al., 2021). In assessing the available adaptation options, it \r\ncan be useful to distinguish between actions focused on protecting \r\nforest extent, managing biodiversity, managing ecosystem function \r\nor restoring ecosystem services (Seppala, 2009), Figure  CCP7"


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"5 and \r\nTable  CCP7.4 give a detailed assessment of the major adaptation \r\noptions in this context. Beyond these specific interventions, and in \r\nseveral cases underpinning them, there is an increasing awareness that \r\neffective management and adaptation of tropical forests requires an \r\nappreciation of IK, LK and CBA for implementation to be meaningful; \r\nthese approaches are assessed in [Box CCP7.1]"


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"Purely scientific knowledge, albeit indispensable, is insufficient to address climate change. Indigenous knowledge systems, embedded in \r\nsocial and cultural structures, are integral to climate resilience and adaptation (high confidence) (Ajani, 2013; Tengo et al., 2014; Hiwasaki\r\net al., 2015; Roue and Nakashima, 2018) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. 2014), AR5 WGII Section 20.4.2 (Denton et al. 2014), SRCCL \r\nSection 4.8.1 (Olsson et al. 2019), SRCCL Section 4.8.2 (Olsson et al. 2019), SR15 Section 4.3.5.5 (de Coninck et al. 2018) ]. knowledge \r\nand local knowledge (IK and LK) and community-based adaptation (CBA) have received increasing recognition across all sectors (high \r\nconfidence) (Reid and Huq, 2014; Wright et al., 2014; Moste, 2015) [SRCCL Section 4.1.6 (Olsson et al. 2019), SRCCL Section 5.3.5 (Mbow \r\net al. 2019), SR15 Box 4.3 (de Coninck et al. 2018)] (Figure Box CCP7.1.1)"


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" Forest Indigenous knowledge (IK) is closely linked to traditional \r\nland-use practices and local governance (Roberts et al., 2009); it is embodied in art, rituals, food, agriculture and customary laws, among \r\nothers (Hiwasaki et al., 2015; Camico et al., 2021). CBA is a community-led process based on its desires, priorities, knowledge and capacities \r\nwhich empowers people as central players in climate change adaptation (Reid et al., 2009) [SRCCL 5.3.5]."


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"Several authors have highlighted the need to foster a respectful dialogue between Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge\r\n(LK) and modern science towards a holistic research model (high confidence) (Berkes, 2010; Ajani, 2013; Tengo et al., 2014; Roue and \r\nNakashima, 2018) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. 2014) , AR5 WGII Section 14.2.2 (Noble et al. 2014)], but few ecological \r\nstudies have attempted this integration (Keenan, 2015; Vadigi, 2016). Examples in tropical forest ecosystems include topics such as \r\nmonitoring climate impacts; local climates; seed, water and land management resilience-increasing practices; and climate threats to \r\ntraditional agriculture (Parrotta and Agnoletti, 2012; Fernandez-Llamazares et al., 2017; Camico et al., 2021; Mustonen et al., 2021). A \r\ngrowing number of methods are available to help this dialogue [SRCCL Section 7.5.1 (Hurlbert et al. 2019)] (Reid et al., 2009; Tengo et al., \r\n2014; Tengo et al"


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", 2017; Roue and Nakashima, 2018) (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). While there is expanding interest among decision makers, \r\nresearchers, Indigenous Peoples and civil society on IK and LK (Hiwasaki et al., 2015; Maillet and Ford, 2016), gaps remain regarding links \r\nbetween place-and-culture dimensions and adaptive capacities (Ford et al., 2016)."


id: ee58a98120c708e9bbcc96cdb5fc346e
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"Enhancing Adaptive Capacity through IK and LK and CBA: Lessons Learned\r\nUseful lessons can be drawn from experience to effectively incorporate IK, LK and CBA in adaptation strategies. A number of barriers \r\nto adaptation have also been recognised (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). Considering that IK and LK is increasingly threatened by colonisation, \r\nacculturation, dispossession of land rights, and environmental and social change, among others [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. \r\n2014); SR15Section 4.3.5 (de Coninck et  al. 2018)] Seppala (2009) highlighted the importance of supporting community efforts to \r\ndocument, vitalise and protect it. It is essential to consider goals, identity and livelihood priorities of Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities, including those beyond natural resource management (Reid et al., 2009; Diamond and Ansharyani, 2018; Zavaleta et al., \r\n2018)"


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" Adaptation processes are more likely to be transformational when they are locally driven (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Chung Tiam Fook, 2015; Chanza and De Wit, 2016). This requires adaptive institutional frameworks, capable of \r\nnavigating the complex dynamic of socio-ecosystems (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Locatelli et al., 2008; \r\nSimane and Zaitchik, 2014) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.2 (Adger et al. 2014), SR15 Section 5.3.1 (Roy et al. 2018)]. It is important to consider \r\npower relations and priority differences to avoid causing social disruption and inequality. 'We need to keep asking: Who benefits? Who \r\nloses? Who is empowered? Who is disempowered?' (Reid et al., 2009)."


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"To retain functioning tropical forests, adaptation will need to take \r\nplace across many scales, from individual stands to interconnected \r\nlandscapes, and upwards to regional and global policy changes. From a \r\nglobal perspective, the most effective adaptation and mitigation option \r\nis to reduce and reverse the loss of area in tropical forest ecosystems \r\n(Alkama and Cescatti, 2016; Griscom et al., 2017). Maximising tropical \r\nforest extent has well-described benefits in mitigating CO2 emissions \r\nand in the role of forests regulating global climate (high confidence) \r\n(Smith et  al., 2014). For nations with tropical forests, adaptation is \r\nlargely achieved through sustainable management of forested areas, \r\nenforcing the land rights/land tenure of Indigenous Peoples, and \r\nthrough establishment of protected areas (Table  CCP7.4; Seppala, \r\n2009; Portner et al., 2021)"


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" Some of this is achieved through schemes \r\nincentivising landowners to retain tree cover for the express purpose of \r\nmitigating climate change impacts (e.g., PES- Payments for Ecosystem \r\nServices, REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest "


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"et al., 2017). In protected areas, this would typically involve reinforcing \r\nexisting conservation objectives through adaptive management \r\n(Salafsky et al., 2001; Ellis et al., 2015; Tanner-McAllister et al., 2017; \r\nHagerman and Pelai, 2018), including support for natural regeneration \r\n(Chazdon et al., 2016). It is also possible to improve forest cover and \r\ninterconnectivity through restoration or afforestation. There are many \r\ntechnical guides to improve the implementation and success rate of \r\nsuch approaches (Table CCP7.4) (Lamb and Gilmour, 2003; Shimamoto\r\net al., 2018; Strassburg et al., 2019) and funding support specifically \r\naimed at climate change adaptation and mitigation (e.g., REDD+). \r\nIn some instances, climate change can alter climate suitability to the \r\nextent that managers need to allow for a transition to a new habitat \r\ntype (e.g"


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", from tropical forest to savanna), adaptive management can \r\nhelp recognise and facilitate these transitions (Seppala, 2009; Schmitz\r\net  al., 2015; Lapola et  al., 2018). Depending on local conditions, it \r\nwill be necessary to adapt to specific stress factors that are likely to \r\nincrease in prevalence or severity because of climate change, such as \r\nheatwaves, drought events and forest fires (Allen et al., 2010; Malhi\r\net  al., 2014; Seidl et  al., 2017). Although it is typically not possible \r\nto link individual events or adaptation measures to climate change, \r\nthe effectiveness of technical interventions has been illustrated in a \r\nbroader forest management context. Table CCP7.4 assesses the costs \r\nand benefits of different adaptation options based on the available \r\nliterature. However, it should be noted that there is lack of information \r\non many potential adaptation interventions, especially in the context \r\nof tropical forests (Locatelli et al., 2010; Bele et al"


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", 2015; Keenan, 2015; \r\nHagerman and Pelai, 2018). The sections below and Figure  CCP7.5 \r\noffer a framework for optimising management of complex tropical \r\nforest ecosystems within a landscape context, through a range of \r\ninterconnected adaptation options."


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"Forests will be affected by several climate change impacts that \r\nwill require forest management towards fulfilling four objectives: \r\nmaintain forest area; facilitate biodiversity adaptation; maintain \r\nhealthy functioning forest ecosystems; and restore ecosystem services \r\n(including productive capacity) (Seppala, 2009), which complement \r\nthe more conventional approaches to protect, manage and restore \r\nforests (Sayer et  al., 2003). This is dependent on location-specific \r\nconditions that are defined by the type of forest and land tenure \r\nregimes or dominant actors across forest landscapes. The analysis \r\nhere proposes 10 adaptation responses that focus on the adaptation \r\npotential of tropical forests to climate change and are linked to the \r\nmanagement objectives identified (Figure  CCP7.5). Each response \r\noption (1-10) implies variable economic costs and benefits, influenced \r\nby location-specific conditions, including several important non\u0002monetised benefits"


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" The figure suggests the most relevant situations \r\nin which the different response options hold greater potential to meet \r\nthe forest management objectives for addressing expected climate \r\nchange impacts."


id: f97bf82c55d8b9cc9859d22b1eff01ed
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"Deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests has grown \r\nin prominence as priorities for environmental governance in the face \r\nof climate change, given the large share of forest and land use GHG \r\nemissions in the national profiles of tropical forest countries (high \r\nconfidence) (Butt et al., 2015; IPCC, 2019b). This is reflected in Parties' \r\nNationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement \r\n(UNFCCC, 2021). Significant investments in REDD+ readiness, improved \r\nforest monitoring, assessments of drivers of deforestation and forest \r\ndegradation and related policy responses, and stakeholder engagement \r\nhave occurred over the past decade in countries across Africa, Asia\u0002Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean (Hein et al., 2018; UN\u0002REDD Programme, 2018; World Bank, 2018). Fifty-three percent of \r\ncountries use the highest-quality remote sensing data for forest \r\nmonitoring and reporting, covering 93% of forest cover (Nesha et al., \r\n2021)"


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" However, improved monitoring has not yet translated into forest \r\ngovernance effectiveness. Since the New York Declaration on Forests \r\nwas endorsed in 2014, average annual humid tropical primary forest \r\nloss has accelerated by 44% (NYDF, 2019). Policy responses towards \r\nconservation and ecosystem resilience are found to be insufficient \r\nto stem the direct and indirect drivers of nature deterioration (high \r\nconfidence) (IPBES, 2019). For governance measures to be effective, it \r\nis necessary to alter the direct and underlying drivers that are leading \r\nto forest destruction or impeding the implementation of sustainable \r\nforest management practices and actions to restore degraded forests \r\n(high confidence) (Section CCP7.2.3; Section CCP7.5; UNFCCC, 2013)."


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"The onset and duration of dry and rainy seasons also changes. A prolonged wet season has excessive rains which \r\ncause flash floods and substantially disturbs the fruiting cycle of many plant species. Due to high rainfall and high \r\nhumidity, most flowers of forest trees fail to mature, and hence essentially deplete fruit production. Most trees in \r\ntropical forests require a short period of a dry season to have a mass fruiting season. On the other hand, a prolonged \r\ndry season causes soils to dry in deeper layers, higher atmospheric demand for water vapour and enhanced forest \r\nfires. In the tropical humid forests, the majority of forest fires are anthropogenic. In Southeast Asia, peat fires cause \r\nlarge carbon emissions and haze pollution which harms locals and people in neighbouring countries"


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" The impact on \r\ntropical forest comes also from the sea level rise which is due to changes in salinity and sedimentation rates, and \r\nthe expansion of inundated areas leads to the decline of mangrove productivity."


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"Projected impacts of climate change on the tropical forest might be detrimental to safeguards of local communities \r\nand a significant number of flora and fauna in the tropics. In southeastern Amazon, reduction in precipitation, \r\ndue to changes in the climate pattern, associated with intense deforestation and land cover change are leading \r\nto reduction of productivity in the remaining forest areas, and might lead to a large-scale change in the forest \r\nstructure which can become a savannah. In Southeast Asia, in particular in Indonesia and Malaysia, prolonged dry \r\nseasons associated with the El Nino phenomenon cause extensive peat fires, releasing large amounts of carbon \r\ndioxide and creating various health problems related to haze pollution. Furthermore, climate change interacts \r\nwith deforestation for agriculture (crops, livestock and plantation forestry), logging, mining or infrastructure \r\ndevelopment, exacerbating temperature and rainfall changes resulting in more degradation"


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"Contributing Authors: Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Idowu Ajibade (Nigeria/Canada/\r\nUSA), Philip Antwi-Agyei (Ghana), Laura Astigarraga (Uruguay), Govindasamy Bala (India), \r\nBirgit Bednar-Friedl (Austria), Magnus Benzie (Sweden/UK), Richard Betts (UK), Rachel Bezner \r\nKerr (USA), Joern Birkmann (Germany), Martina Angela Caretta (USA), Tamma Carleton (USA), \r\nConnor Cavanagh (Ireland/Norway), Winston Chow (Singapore), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/ \r\nSwitzerland/France), Andrew Constable (Australia), Mark John Costello (New Zealand/Norway/\r\nIreland), Jackie Dawson (Canada), Richard Dawson (UK), Heleen de Coninck (the Netherlands), \r\nSimon Donner (Canada), Sybren Drijfhout (the Netherlands), Laurent Drouet (Italy), Virginie K.E"


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"Solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches have potential \r\nto offset warming and ameliorate other climate hazards, but \r\ntheir potential to reduce risk or introduce novel risks to people \r\nand ecosystems is not well understood (high confidence). SRM \r\neffects on climate hazards are highly dependent on deployment \r\nscenarios, and substantial residual climate change or overcompensating \r\nchange would occur at regional scales and seasonal time scales (high \r\nconfidence). Due in part to limited research, there is low confidence in \r\nprojected benefits or risks to crop yields, economies, human health or \r\necosystems. Large negative impacts are projected from rapid warming \r\nfor a sudden and sustained termination of SRM in a high-CO2 scenario \r\n(high confidence). SRM would not stop CO2 from increasing in the \r\natmosphere or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued \r\nanthropogenic emissions (high confidence)"


id: bed842271e9f3690ce5c6b386613439d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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content:
"Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to many human and \r\necological systems. These risks are increasingly visible in our day-to\u0002day lives, including a growing number of disasters that already bear a \r\nfingerprint of climate change. There is increasing concern about how \r\nthese risks will shape the future of our planet--our ecosystems, our \r\nwell-being and development opportunities. Policymakers are asking \r\nwhat is known about the risks, and what can be done about them. \r\nMany people, especially youth, around the world are calling for urgency, \r\nambition and action. Companies are wondering how to manage new \r\nthreats to their bottom line, or how to grasp new opportunities"


id: a8d700ce1055562e1060abcf6964e45c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 24092
content:
" On top \r\nof this growing concern about climate change, the coronavirus disease \r\n2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities to shocks, \r\nsignificantly aggravated climate-related risks, and posed new questions \r\nabout how to achieve a green, resilient and inclusive recovery (see \r\nCross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7)."


id: b8596cab7f94daa8840b945e02e991a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 26534
content:
"In 2015, the Paris Agreement established the goal of 'holding the \r\nincrease in the global average temperature to well below 2degC above \r\npre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature \r\nincrease to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels'. However, assessment \r\nof key risks across a range of future warming levels remains a high \r\npriority for several reasons: (1) understanding risks at higher levels of \r\nwarming can help prepare for them, should efforts to limit warming \r\nbe unsuccessful (UNEP, 2017); (2) understanding risks at higher levels \r\ncan inform the benefits of limiting warming to lower levels; (3) in \r\naddition, there is continued debate about whether warming limits \r\nshould be at or rather somewhere below 2degC (in particular at 1"


id: b9ffef2b6e194c2b3511e73fc6e28f2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
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vector_id: 26804
content:
"5degC); \r\nand (4) there is a more explicit recognition that key risks can result not \r\nonly from increased warming, but also from changes in the exposure \r\nand vulnerability of society, and from a lack of ambitious adaptation \r\nefforts. Thus, relatively limited warming does not automatically imply \r\nthat key risks will not occur. In assessing key risks, we have applied \r\nfour criteria: magnitude of adverse consequences, likelihood of \r\nadverse consequences, temporal characteristics of the risk, and ability \r\nto respond. Of course, this is an aggregated approach to what is \r\ndangerous; it should be noted that in practice, 'dangerous' will occur \r\nat a myriad of temperature levels depending on who or what is at risk \r\n(and their circumstances), geographic scale and time scale."


id: 19f4ea82ef0965939755955baa2e2b59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 1551
content:
"patterns can create challenges for resource availability, exacerbate \r\npollution levels (Rode et  al., 2015) and increase exposure to some \r\nrisks. For example, ~10% of the global population live in low-elevation \r\ncoastal zones (in 2000; areas <10 m of elevation) (McGranahan et al., \r\n2007; Neumann et  al., 2015), which is expected to increase by 5% \r\nto 13.6% by 2100 depending on the population scenario (Neumann \r\net al., 2015; Jones and O'Neill, 2016). Building assets and infrastructure \r\nin naturally risk-prone areas are also projected to increase (Magnan \r\net al., 2019), which may also lead to environmental degradation that \r\ncan further aggravate risk, such as destruction of wetlands that buffer \r\nagainst floods (Schuerch et  al., 2018; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). \r\nDemographic trends, coupled with changes in income, can also result \r\nin increasing demands for land, food, water and energy, and therefore \r\nin major changes in land use and cover change (Arneth, 2019)"


id: 3f0b1055f487769b9149b8f785163990
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 7302
content:
" The \r\nobserved and projected population decline in some rural areas also has \r\nimplications for vulnerability and exposure. In addition, demographic \r\nchanges such as ageing may increase vulnerability to some climate \r\nhazards, including heat stress (Byers et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2019a; \r\nRohat et al., 2019b)."


id: 1546c4dc93a356e14367cc37f616db5c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
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vector_id: 861
content:
"Poverty contributes to exposure and vulnerability by limiting access \r\nof individuals, households and communities to economic resources \r\nand restraining adaptive capacities (e.g., for food and energy supply, \r\nor for financing adaptation responses) (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, \r\n2017). Over the past decades, until the COVID-19 pandemic, global \r\npoverty rates have declined rapidly. Between 1981 and 2015, the \r\nshare of global population living in extreme poverty (under the \r\ninternational poverty line of USD 1.90 d-1) declined from 42% to \r\n10%, leaving 736 million people in extreme poverty, concentrated in \r\nSouth Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2018). This general \r\nreduction in poverty across the world is accompanied by a decrease \r\nin vulnerability to many types of climate change impacts (medium \r\nconfidence)"


id: 8584f0d2dd1afe3f891841505af801c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18540
content:
" However, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly \r\nincreased extreme poverty by about 100 million people in 2020, with \r\ndisproportionate economic impacts on the poorest, most fragile and \r\nsmaller countries (World Bank, 2021) and significant implications for \r\nvulnerability to climate change (see also Cross-Chapter Box COVID \r\nin Chapter 7)."


id: a19256454672efd8db7eaebd7b097fb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22976
content:
"This section synthesises the observed impacts of changes in climate\u0002related systems (Section  16.2.1) on different natural, human and \r\nmanaged systems (outlined in Chapters 2-8) and regions (outlined \r\nin Chapters 9-15). To stay as specific as possible given the required \r\nlevel of aggregation, we decided in favour of a summary along \r\nspecific prominent indicators such as 'crop yields' or 'areas burned \r\nby wildfires' instead of an assessment across broad categories \r\nsuch as 'food production' which could include a broad range of \r\nmeasures ranging from climate-induced changes in growing seasons \r\nto impacts on livestock and fisheries, etc., or 'wildfires' which could \r\nalso cover impacts on the frequency, intensity, timing, or emissions \r\nand health impacts of wildfires. This decision for specificity certainly \r\nimplies a decision against comprehensiveness"


id: b832f0b7ca75a37ea13fcef363313d96
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:35
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26512
content:
" In addition, the level \r\nof specificity has to be adjusted given the literature basis which is \r\nquite broad regarding crop yields but still limited and less harmonised \r\nregarding indicators when it comes to, for example, conflicts. A \r\nbroader discussion can be found in the sectoral or regional chapters \r\nthat all cover 'observed impacts' individually. Section 16.2.1 provides \r\nkey definitions, followed by recent advances in available methods \r\nand data for climate impact attribution (Section  16.2.2), and the \r\nassessment of observed impacts of changes in climate related \r\nsystems (Section 16.2.3). It is important to note that the assessment \r\nis primarily based on peer-reviewed literature, that is, it is limited to \r\nthe regions and phenomena for which such studies are available. So \r\n'no assessment' in a certain region does not imply that the considered \r\ntype of impact did not occur in this region."


