# document

id: 6ca4e19d8f55dd2ea9e220250e6a0354
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14710
content:
"climate for a specific region (Christensen et  al., 2007; Hawkins and \r\nSutton, 2012). SROCC concluded that for ocean properties, the time \r\nof emergence ranges from under a decade (e.g., surface ocean pH) to \r\nover a century (e.g., net primary production; see Section 3.4.3.3.4 for \r\ntime of emergence of biological properties; Bindoff et al., 2019a)."


id: 96e9f269367cc55cc1bca09fc09cc10f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21259
content:
"Anthropogenic CO2 emissions trigger a suite of changes that alter \r\nocean temperature, pH and CO2 concentration, oxygen concentration \r\nand nutrient supply at global scales (Section  3.2). The response \r\npathways of these climate-induced drivers have been investigated \r\nprimarily as single variables."


id: c18a76df76033891821111492dda04c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28042
content:
"Greenhouse gases also contributed substantially to shaping the longer\u0002term climate trends over the past 50 million years, although changes \r\nin continental configuration and ocean circulation as well as planetary \r\norbital cycles were equally important (WGI AR6 Cross-Chapter Box 2.1 \r\nin Chapter 2; Westerhold et al., 2020; Gulev et al., 2021). There is little \r\nevidence for ocean acidification in the past 2.6 Ma (low confidence) \r\n(Honisch et al., 2012), but ocean ventilation was highly sensitive to \r\neven modest warming such as observed in the past 10,000  years \r\n(medium confidence) (Jaccard and Galbraith, 2012; Lembke-Jene et al., \r\n2018)."


id: c3c5398bd6af6b1636ef9c718b758970
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28370
content:
"Altered seawater carbonate chemistry (Section 3.2.3.1) affects specific \r\nprocesses to varying degrees. For example, higher CO2 concentrations \r\ncan increase photosynthesis and growth in some phytoplankton, "


id: b4b6b5c84c17a3874f1fdc4138400df5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25961
content:
"Each organism encounters a unique combination of local and climate\u0002induced drivers, which vary in space and time. The contribution of \r\nthese drivers to an organism's overall biological response, and thereby \r\nalso potential risks for the organism, depends on the intensity and "


id: b96f3c0dbb5d276c0ab0f5612e3e36af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26717
content:
"Figure 3.8 |  The state of knowledge regarding ecological responses to environmental drivers in experimental settings."


id: 92cccb7d2529f7379ddbea5f115cd060
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20610
content:
"(a) Schematic indicates where themes are discussed within Section 3.3, and how they jointly inform policy. (Adapted from Riebesell and Gattuso, 2014)."


id: e24a40ed9e298cf5bb3e3e2ece8b882a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33107
content:
"(a) The generic temperature-response curve shows physiological process rates as a nonlinear function of a particular driver (e.g., temperature) with maximum rates (Rmax) and \r\ntemperature optima (Topt). The driver range that keeps physiological rates above a certain threshold represents the organism's range of phenotypic plasticity, while below that \r\nthreshold, the critical temperature (Tcrit), physiological performance is so low as to constitute stressful conditions. "


id: e685a6fd5a0a4bcd6c38401440cec092
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33750
content:
"(b) The response curve for one driver can depend on other drivers, here exemplified for temperature and pH in the central panel. This interaction causes rates as well as optima to \r\nchange with pH (left) and temperature (right), indicated by the coloured lines. (c) Impacts of multiple drivers on processes can be additive (blue), synergistic (red) or antagonistic \r\n(green), that is, the cumulative effects of two (or more) drivers are equal to, larger than or smaller than the sum of their individual effects, respectively. Potential experimental \r\noutcomes affected by additive, synergistic and antagonistic interactions are shown for scenarios where drivers increase rates (left), decrease rates (centre) or cause opposite \r\nresponses (right), showing how experimental outcomes can mask these mechanistic interactions. (For a quantitative analysis of effects of driver pairs on animals, see Figure 3.SM.2.) \r\n(Adapted from Crain et al., 2008 and Piggott et al., 2015)."


id: 82a24c22a7b2eefe086f0a6e397d0a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18076
content:
"macroalgae, responses are highly species specific and often indicate \r\nsynergistic interactions between warming and acidification (Kram \r\net  al., 2016; Falkenberg et  al., 2018). Ocean acidification poses a \r\nlarge risk for coralline algae that is further amplified by warming \r\n(medium confidence) (Section 3.4.2.2; Cornwall et al., 2019). However, \r\ntemperatures up to 5degC above ambient do not decrease calcification \r\n(Cornwall et  al., 2019), and there is limited evidence that some \r\nspecies have the physiological capacity to resist acidification via pH \r\nupregulation at the calcification site (Cornwall et  al., 2017a). For \r\nseagrass, warming beyond a species' thermal tolerance will limit \r\ngrowth and impact germination, but ocean acidification appears to \r\nincrease thermal tolerance of some eelgrass species by increasing the \r\nphotosynthesis-to-respiration ratio (medium confidence) (Egea et al., \r\n2018; Scalpone et al., 2020; Zimmerman, 2021)."


id: c6660e93e3efc6faf073e4099b185ff2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28787
content:
"Figure 3.10 |  The effect of environmental drivers differs depending upon organisms' life history, and trophic strategy or habitat."


id: 5308d7a6dc432b53c23f534c3365b5f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10520
content:
"(a) pH variability differs for benthic invertebrates, such as sea urchins (in blue), and their pelagic larvae (in green); pH fluctuations over the annual cycle can be much larger in \r\nwater column (due to primary production) relative to the seafloor. Variability associated with behaviour and life stage strongly defines organisms' niches and sensitivities to pres\r\nand future conditions."


id: 2a7e1f87356c767547c2a07be3e1f6c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4113
content:
"(b) Examples of organisms that are influenced by different suites of drivers that are set jointly by their habitat (e.g., benthic versus epipelagic settings) and trophic strategy (e.g., \r\nnutrients for phytoplankton, prey characteristics for grazers)."


id: 62b708f95b66217aadceb05a709ac9c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13100
content:
"species (high confidence) (Gao et  al., 2012; Li and Campbell, 2013; \r\nZhang et al., 2015; Kottmeier et al., 2016; Gafar et al., 2019). Lowered \r\nphoto-physiological capacity to cope with high-light stress and avoid \r\nphotodamage (Gao et al., 2012; Li and Campbell, 2013; Hoppe et al., \r\n2015; Kvernvik et  al., 2020) is also consistent with observations \r\nthat dynamic light regimes can become more stressful under ocean \r\nacidification (Jin et al., 2013; Hoppe et al., 2015). Given the expected \r\nmixed-layer shallowing in some regions (Section 3.2.2.3), the exposure \r\nto overall higher mean irradiances could shift the effects of acidification \r\nfrom beneficial to detrimental for some primary producers, depending \r\non species and organismal traits (medium confidence) (Gao et  al., \r\n2019; Seifert et al., 2020)."


id: 726e2428ee23311e59798532a284671b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15620
content:
"Studies investigating two drivers provide most of the information on \r\nthe wide range of interactive effects of drivers on phytoplankton (Gao \r\net al., 2019; Seifert et al., 2020), although climate change alters several \r\noceanic drivers concurrently (Section 3.2). The few experimental studies \r\nthat have addressed three or more drivers (Xu et al., 2014; Boyd et al., \r\n2015b; Brennan and Collins, 2015; Brennan et al., 2017; Hoppe et al., \r\n2018b; Moreno-Marin et  al., 2018) indicate that one or two drivers \r\ngenerally dominate the cumulative outcome, with others playing a \r\nsubordinate role (medium confidence). In these studies, temperature \r\nhad a disproportionately large influence, while other drivers differed \r\nin importance, depending on the type of primary producer, ecosystem \r\ncharacteristics and selected driver values."


id: c1ea7518b751e6d8f119e5cff5d14da9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28088
content:
"As with ocean acidification, reduced oxygen availability further \r\nalters the influence of warming on metabolic rates (high confidence). \r\nAcidification and hypoxia can contribute to a decrease or shift in thermal \r\ntolerance, while the magnitude of this effect depends on the duration \r\nof exposure (Tripp-Valdez et al., 2017; Cattano et al., 2018; Calderon\u0002"


id: 9396caa27f449aef964b8e13145dc36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20734
content:
"events such as MHWs (Cross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES in Chapter  2). \r\nThe interplay between the abruptness, intensity, duration, magnitude \r\nand reoccurrence of extreme events may alter or prevent evolutionary \r\nresponses (e.g., adaptation) to climate change and the potential for \r\nacclimation to extreme conditions such as MHWs (Cheung and Frolicher, \r\n2020; Coleman et al., 2020a; Gurgel et al., 2020; Gruber et al., 2021)."


id: fdc4513f95ad4c14458a6b046945d2bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37445
content:
"Some studies have documented higher phenotypic plasticity and \r\ntolerance to ocean warming and acidification in marine invertebrates \r\n(Dam, 2013; Kelly et  al., 2013; Pespeni et  al., 2013; Gaitan-Espitia \r\net al., 2017a; Vargas et al., 2017; Li et al., 2018a), seaweeds (Noisette \r\net  al., 2013; Padilla-Gamino et  al., 2016; Machado Monteiro et  al., \r\n2019) and fish (medium confidence) (Sandoval-Castillo et  al., 2020; \r\nEnbody et  al., 2021) living in coastal zones characterised by strong \r\ntemporal fluctuations in temperature, pH, pCO2, light and nutrients. \r\nFor these populations, strong directional selection with intense and \r\nhighly fluctuating conditions may have favoured local adaptation \r\nand increased tolerance to environmental stress (low confidence, low \r\nevidence) (Hong and Shurin, 2015; Gaitan-Espitia et al., 2017b; Li et al., \r\n2018a)."


id: a8a3faf8f2294f463debc9a2d7d4b27b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24062
content:
"While hypoxia can dominate multiple-driver responses locally (Sampaio \r\net  al., 2021), warming is the fundamental physiological driver for \r\nmost marine ectotherms, globally, as it directly affects their entire \r\nbiochemistry and energy metabolism. Other influential drivers include \r\nocean acidification, salinity (high confidence) (Lefevre, 2016; Whiteley \r\net al., 2018; Reddin et al., 2020) or food availability/quality (medium \r\nconfidence) (Nagelkerken and Munday, 2016; Gao et  al., 2020). \r\nFluctuating and decreasing salinity may aggravate the detrimental \r\neffects of warming and elevated CO2, because dilution with freshwater \r\nlowers acid-base buffering capacity, resulting in lower pH and calcium \r\ncarbonate saturation state (Dickinson et al., 2012; Shrivastava et al., \r\n2019; Melzner et al., 2020)."


id: a37548a5244cd716cd1375ea293f8c94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23280
content:
"2019). The evolutionary responses of microbes are conditioned by the \r\nnumber and characteristics of interacting drivers (low confidence) \r\n(Brennan et al., 2017). For example, in a high-salinity adapted strain of \r\nthe phytoplankton Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, the selection intensity \r\nand the adaptation rate increased with the number of environmental \r\ndrivers, accelerating the adaptive evolutionary response (Brennan \r\net al., 2017). For this and other phytoplankton species, a few dominant \r\ndrivers explain most of the phenotypic and evolutionary changes \r\nobserved (Boyd et  al., 2015a; Brennan and Collins, 2015; Brennan \r\net al., 2017)."


id: d7cafc77373b33f2fabb034a3382e5c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31478
content:
"Munday et al., 2013), along with intrinsic factors such as generation \r\ntimes and standing genetic variation (Mitchell-Olds et  al., 2007; \r\nLohbeck et al., 2012). Accurately assessing the degree of acclimation \r\nand/or adaptation across space and time is difficult and constrains \r\nstudying adaptive evolution in natural populations. There is a major \r\ngap in climate-change biology related to the study of evolutionary \r\nresponses in complex and long-lived multicellular organisms. Insights \r\non organismal acclimation, adaptation and evolution rely on studies \r\nof small, short-lived marine organisms, such as phytoplankton, which \r\ndivide rapidly and contain high genetic variation in large populations. \r\n(Schaum et al., 2016; Cavicchioli et al., 2019; Collins et al., 2020)."


id: 5362de092a09779938de96c667d32121
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10589
content:
"Adaptation can be impeded, delayed or constrained in eukaryotic \r\nmicrobial populations as a result of reduced genetic diversity and/or the \r\npresence of functional and evolutionary trade-offs (Aranguren-Gassis \r\net al., 2019; Lindberg and Collins, 2020; Walworth et al., 2020). In the \r\nmarine diatom Chaetoceros simplex, a functional trade-off between \r\nhigh-temperature tolerance and increased nitrogen requirements "


id: cd9424400410dd812f86a20e57ba57d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29879
content:
"Experimental evolution suggests that microbial populations can \r\nrapidly adapt (i.e., over 1-2  years) to environmental changes \r\nmimicking projected effects of climate change (medium confidence). \r\nPhytoplankton adaptive mechanisms include intraspecific strain sorting \r\nand genetic changes (Bach et al., 2018; Hoppe et al., 2018b; Wolf et al., "


id: dd1c1807ccdf548e2f33505e4c660d4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32284
content:
"Figure 3.11 |  Micro-evolutionary dynamics in response to environmental change. Simplified conceptual framework shows two main eco-evolutionary trajectories for \r\nnatural populations over time (vertical axis from top to bottom). If environmental stress is low, rapid responses (within a generation) through plastic phenotypic adjustments and \r\nselection (across generations) sustain fitness, enhancing maintenance of viable populations across generations. In contrast, if environmental stress is high, ongoing phenotypic \r\nplasticity and acclimation may be insufficient to buffer the negative effects, exacerbating the loss of fitness (change of colour to orange/yellow/red). Ultimately, very high stress \r\nconditions accelerate population decline, enhancing the risk of species extinction."


id: 338902c22b46444fddb5d0688a7f9b15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5527
content:
"underlies inhibited thermal adaptation under nitrogen-limited \r\nconditions (low confidence) (Aranguren-Gassis et  al., 2019). When \r\nselection is strong due to unfavourable environmental conditions, \r\nmicrobial populations can encounter functional and evolutionary \r\ntrade-offs evidenced by reducing growth rates while increasing \r\ntolerance and metabolism of reactive oxygen species (Lindberg and \r\nCollins, 2020). Other trade-offs can be observed in offspring quality \r\nand number (Lindberg and Collins, 2020). These findings contribute \r\ntowards a mechanistic framework describing the range of evolutionary \r\nstrategies in response to multiple drivers (Collins et al., 2020), but other \r\nhazards, such as extreme events (e.g., MHWs), still need to be included \r\nbecause their characteristics may alter the potential for adaptation of \r\nspecies and populations to climate change (Gruber et al., 2021)."


id: 8114f7abb9cbfda53041fe40e0222e9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17832
content:
"The section continues on to oceanic and cross-cutting changes \r\n(Section  3.4.3), which influence large areas of the epipelagic zone \r\n(<200 m depth) while also affecting the mesopelagic (200-1000 m), \r\nthe perpetually dark bathypelagic (depth >1000 m) and the deep \r\nseafloor (benthic ecosystems at depths >200 m) zones. Assessed in this \r\nsection are species range shifts (Section 3.4.3.1), phenological shifts \r\nand trophic mismatches (Section 3.4.3.2), changes in communities and \r\nbiodiversity (Section 3.4.3.3.2), time of emergence of climate-impact \r\nsignals in ecological systems from background natural variability \r\n(Section 3.4.3.3.4) and changes in biomass, primary productivity and \r\ncarbon export (Sections 3.4.3.4-3.4.3.6)."


id: f2314dc20421d79bcd0a7829931a8e2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35636
content:
"Ocean and coastal ecosystems and their resident species are under \r\nincreasing pressure from a multitude of climate-induced drivers and \r\nnon-climate drivers (Section  3.1; Figure  3.12; Bindoff et  al., 2019a). \r\nThis section builds from the assessment of biological responses to \r\nclimate-impact drivers (Section  3.3) to examine the new evidence \r\nabout climate-change impacts at the level of marine ecosystems. It \r\nfocuses on detection and attribution of observed changes to marine \r\necosystems and the projected changes under different future climate \r\nscenarios. This assessment considers emerging evidence on the effects \r\nof multiple non-climate drivers and physiological acclimation and/or \r\nevolutionary adaptation on these observations and projections."


id: baf22f62a11a9ba31a4ae18e4ebbc244
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26949
content:
"Warm-water coral reef ecosystems house one-quarter of the marine \r\nbiodiversity and provide services in the form of food, income and \r\nshoreline protection to coastal communities around the world. These \r\necosystems are threatened by climate-induced and non-climate drivers, \r\nespecially ocean warming, MHWs, ocean acidification, SLR, tropical \r\ncyclones, fisheries/overharvesting, land-based pollution, disease \r\nspread and destructive shoreline practices (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., \r\n2018a; Bindoff et al., 2019a; Hughes et al., 2020). Warm-water coral \r\nreefs face near-term threats to their survival (Table 3.3), but research \r\non observed and projected impacts is very advanced."


id: 46df8d8dc4cf3b078c1df4ae9edb6466
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8535
content:
"The section focuses first on coastal ecosystems and seas (Section 3.4.2), \r\nwhich have high spatial variability in physical and chemical \r\ncharacteristics, are affected by many non-climate drivers (Section 3.1; \r\nFigure 3.12) and support rich fisheries, high biodiversity and high levels \r\nof species endemism. The assessment begins with warm-water coral \r\nreefs (Section 3.4.2.1) because these highly threatened systems are at \r\nthe vanguard of research on acclimation and evolutionary adaptation \r\namong coastal ecosystems. It follows with the other shallow, nearshore \r\necosystems dominated by habitat-forming species (e.g., rocky shores, \r\nkelp systems) and then nearshore sedimentary systems (estuaries, \r\ndeltas, coastal wetlands and sandy beaches), before moving on to \r\nsemi-enclosed seas, shelf seas, upwelling zones and polar seas."


id: 24fd24b28dd8d5983c8e81990b05071e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3262
content:
"Figure Box 3.1.1 |  Knowledge gaps between current scientific understanding and that needed to inform policy. The conceptual space relating driver \r\nnumber, (Driver axis), ecological organisation (Space axis) and evolutionary acclimation state (Time axis), modified from Riebesell and Gattuso (2014)."


id: 3102d04b8f6a1add2ce0862862016cab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5135
content:
"(a) Spheres indicate suites of studies that illustrate the progress of research, including multiple drivers: (1) one species and one driver (Hutchins et al., 2013); (2) one \r\nspecies and multiple drivers (five; Boyd et al., 2015a). Ecology: (1) one driver, one species; (3) one driver, planktonic community (Moustaka-Gouni et al., 2016); (4) one \r\ndriver (high-CO2 seep) and (benthic) ecosystem (Fabricius et al., 2014); (5) two drivers and nearshore ecosystem (Nagelkerken et al., 2020). Evolution: (1) acclimated \r\norganism and one driver; (6) adapted organisms and one driver (Listmann et al., 2016); (7) adapted organism and multiple drivers (Brennan et al., 2017)."


id: f64238d2bde9542730f71d22c3247820
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36253
content:
"(b) Trends in research trajectories since 2000 from a survey of 171 studies (Boyd et al., 2018). Note the dominance of multiple-driver experiments at the species level \r\n(lower left cluster); the focus on acclimation (red triangle) rather than adaptation (blue dot); and the focus of investigation on three or fewer drivers. (Redrawn from Boyd \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 3f44d74ad3f2e8d2cb2820c73ab71b69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7347
content:
"Cacciapaglia, 2021) and in reef structural complexity (high confidence, \r\nvery likely) (Couch et al., 2017; Leggat et al., 2019; Magel et al., 2019), \r\nwhich increases water depth, reduces wave attenuation and increases \r\ncoastal flood risk (Yates et al., 2017; Beck et al., 2018). Corals may \r\nalso lose reproductive synchrony through climate change (Shlesinger \r\nand Loya, 2019), adding to their vulnerability. Bleaching and other \r\ndrivers promote phase shifts to ecosystems dominated by macroalgae \r\nor other stress-tolerant species (very high confidence) (Graham et al., \r\n2015; Stuart-Smith et al., 2018), leading to changes in reef-fish species \r\nassemblages (high confidence) (Richardson et  al., 2018; Robinson \r\net al., 2019a; Stuart-Smith et al., 2021)."


id: 657a1c881af9bca6abc9d69fa5475ac4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13537
content:
"Global analyses published since AR5 show that mass coral bleaching \r\nevents and disease outbreaks have increased due to more frequent \r\nand severe heat stress associated with ocean warming (very high \r\nconfidence, virtually certain) (Donner et al., 2017; Hughes et al., 2018a; \r\nDeCarlo et al., 2019; Sully et al., 2019; Tracy et al., 2019). The mass \r\ncoral bleaching, which occurred continuously across different parts of \r\nthe tropics from 2014 to 2016, is considered the longest and most \r\nsevere global coral bleaching event on record (Section  10.4.3; see \r\nBox 15.2; Eakin et al., 2019). The Great Barrier Reef underwent mass \r\nbleaching three times between 2016 and 2020 (see Box 11.2; Pratchett \r\net al., 2021), validating past model projections that some warm-water \r\ncoral reefs would encounter bleaching-level heat stress multiple times \r\nper decade by the 2020s (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Donner, 2009)."


id: 5599a826a05e5f3423f7591716457b01
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10949
content:
"Heat stress and mass bleaching events caused decreases in live coral \r\ncover (virtually certain) (Graham et al., 2014; Hughes et al., 2018b), loss \r\nof sensitive species (extremely likely) (Donner and Carilli, 2019; Lange \r\nand Perry, 2019; Toth et al., 2019; Courtney et al., 2020), vulnerability \r\nto disease (extremely likely) (van Woesik and Randall, 2017; Hadaidi \r\net al., 2018; Brodnicke et al., 2019; Howells et al., 2020) and declines \r\nin coral recruitment in the tropics (medium confidence) (Hughes \r\net  al., 2019; Price et  al., 2019). Recent observations also suggest \r\nthat excess nutrients can increase the susceptibility of corals to heat \r\nstress (DeCarlo et  al., 2020). Changes in coral community structure \r\ndue to bleaching have caused declines in reef carbonate production \r\n(high confidence) (Perry and Morgan, 2017; Lange and Perry, 2019; \r\nPerry and Alvarez-Filip, 2019; Courtney et al., 2020; van Woesik and "


id: 2c74a9d5128f96b3497fb2fcd2d0e83e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4425
content:
"experiments suggests that crustose coralline algae, which contribute \r\nto reef structure and integrity and may be resistant to warming at \r\nthe RCP8.5 level by 2100 (Cornwall et  al., 2019), are also sensitive \r\nto declines in Oaragonite (high confidence) (Section  3.4.2.3; Fabricius \r\net al., 2015; Smith et al., 2020). The integrated effect of acidification, \r\nbleaching, storms and other non-climate drivers on corals, coralline \r\nalgae and other calcifiers can further compromise reef integrity and \r\necosystem services (Rivest et al., 2017; Cornwall et al., 2018; Perry and \r\nAlvarez-Filip, 2019)."


id: 6fca9a3c353e3c3e294e472d5c53ae60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15213
content:
"Since SROCC, there have been advances in experimental, field and \r\nmodelling research on the projected response of coral cover and \r\nreef growth to bleaching and ocean acidification (Cziesielski et  al., \r\n2019; Morikawa and Palumbi, 2019; Cornwall et al., 2021; Klein et al., \r\n2021; Logan et al., 2021; McManus et al., 2021), and on the effect of \r\npossible human interventions like assisted evolution on coral resilience \r\n(Section 3.6.3.2.2; Condie et al., 2021; Hafezi et al., 2021; Kleypas et al., \r\n2021). New model projections incorporating physiological acclimation, "


id: 62a9fd73db8e10979a04646647ca7100
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13092
content:
"coral area, coral diversity and reef growth is limited for the majority \r\nof the world's reefs with >1.5degC of global warming (high confidence) \r\n(Section 3.6.3.3.2; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018b; Bruno et al., 2019; \r\nDarling et al., 2019)."


id: 40c50890b91f15eec2d4310ebc4f851e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7572
content:
"fringed shorelines and reef islands (Yates et al., 2017; Beck et al., 2018; \r\nHarris et al., 2018). Local coral reef fish species richness is projected \r\nto decline due to the impacts of warming on coral cover and diversity \r\n(high confidence), with declines up to 40% by 2060 in SSP5-8.5 (Strona \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 98ce9e4d2bd76437ae43241a807a785b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21557
content:
"These observed and projected impacts are supported by geological \r\nand paleo-ecological evidence showing a decline in coral reef extent \r\nand species richness under previous episodes of climate change and \r\nocean acidification (Kiessling and Simpson, 2011; Pandolfi et al., 2011; \r\nKiessling et al., 2012; Pandolfi and Kiessling, 2014; Kiessling and Kocsis, \r\n2015). Major reef crises in the past 300 million years were governed \r\nby hyperthermal events (medium confidence) (Section  3.2.4.4; \r\nCross-Chapter  Box  PALEO in Chapter  1) longer in time scale than \r\nanthropogenic climate change, during which net coral reef accretion \r\nwas more strongly affected than biodiversity (medium confidence)."


id: 137a6fd10ba21e85218d0c5f9966d1c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 575
content:
"Rocky shore ecosystems refer to a range of temperate intertidal \r\nand shallow coastal ecosystems that are dominated by different \r\nfoundational organisms, including mussels, oysters, fleshy macroalgae, \r\nhard and soft corals, coralline algae, bryozoans and sponges, which \r\ncreate habitat for species-rich assemblages of invertebrates, fish, \r\nmarine mammals and other organisms. Rocky shores provide services \r\nincluding wave attenuation, habitat provision and food resources, and \r\nthese support commercial, recreational and Indigenous fisheries and \r\nshellfish aquaculture."


id: 457a0b15b411846370b0c0d63573cb00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8342
content:
"In summary, additional evidence since SROCC and SR15 (Table  3.3) \r\nfinds that living coral and reef growth are declining due to warming \r\nand MHWs (very high confidence). Coral reefs are under threat of \r\ntransitioning to net erosion with >1.5degC of global warming (high \r\nconfidence), with impacts expected to occur fastest in the Atlantic \r\nOcean. The effectiveness of conservation efforts to sustain living "


id: 5587fb58aec5e9654a0706d9e8220906
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10934
content:
"In contrast to warm-water coral reefs, there are no regional or global \r\nnumerical models of rocky shore ecosystem response to projected \r\nclimate change and acidification. Experiments suggest that existing \r\ngenetic variation could be sufficient for some mussels (Bitter et al., \r\n2019) and coralline algae (Cornwall et  al., 2020) to adapt over \r\ngenerations to ocean acidification. Populations exposed to variable \r\nenvironments often have a greater capacity for phenotypic plasticity \r\nand resilience to environmental change [e.g., urchins (Gaitan\u0002Espitia et al., 2017b) and coralline algae (Section 3.3.2; Rivest et al., \r\n2017; Cornwall et al., 2018)]. Although parental conditioning within \r\nand across generations is an acclimatisation mechanism to global \r\nchange, there is limited evidence from experimental studies that this \r\nis applicable for marine invertebrates on rocky shores (Byrne et al., \r\n2020)."


id: e2429b1fd93636ed8fbc78553466a62f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33096
content:
"detrimental effects on mussels (Gu et al., 2019; Newcomb et al., 2020). \r\nIn regions where food is readily available to mussels, detrimental \r\neffects of ocean acidification may be dampened (Kroeker et al., 2016); \r\nhowever, recent findings are inconclusive (Brown et al., 2018a)."


id: 55451743ea135ab75a5b92c7808f06a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10882
content:
"Coralline algae, foundational taxa that create habitat for sea urchins \r\nand abalone, form rhodolith beds in temperate to Arctic habitats \r\nand bind together substrates, are expected to be highly susceptible \r\nto ocean acidification because they precipitate soluble magnesium \r\ncalcite (Kuffner et  al., 2008; Williams et  al., 2021). Damage from \r\nacidification varies among species and regions, and can be due to \r\ndirect physiological stress (Marchini et al., 2019) or interactions with \r\nnon-calcifying competitors such as fleshy macroalgae (Smith et al., \r\n2020). Experiments indicate that warming reduces calcification \r\nby coralline algae (high confidence) (Cornwall et  al., 2019) and \r\nexacerbates the effect of acidification (Kim et  al., 2020; Williams \r\net al., 2021)."


id: cb5b75c98b3330afa86e2dca1480d456
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29546
content:
"This assessment concludes that MHWs attributable to climate change \r\n(Section 3.2.2.1) can cause fatal disease outbreaks or mass mortality \r\namong some key foundational species (high confidence) and contribute "


id: c480dca03502d64741fd35d5c162e26a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28490
content:
"Heatwaves happen in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extended periods of unusually warm ocean \r\ntemperatures relative to the typical temperatures for that location and time of year. Due to climate change, the number of days with MHWs has \r\nincreased by 54% over the past century. These MHWs cause mortalities in a wide variety of marine species, from corals to kelp to seagrasses \r\nto fish to seabirds, and have consequent effects on ecosystems and industries like aquaculture and fisheries."


id: 21e36e2e800fef5df924fa8cf26b1d24
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2774
content:
"Extreme events in the ocean can have damaging effects on marine ecosystems and the human communities that \r\ndepend on them. The most common form of ocean extremes are MHWs, which are becoming more frequent and \r\nintense due to global warming. Because seawater absorbs and releases heat more slowly than air, temperature \r\nextremes in the ocean are not as pronounced as over land, but they can persist for much longer, often for weeks \r\nto months over areas covering hundreds of thousands of square kilometres. These MHWs can be more detrimental \r\nfor marine species, in comparison with land species, because marine species are usually adapted to relatively stable \r\ntemperatures."


id: 7696a673e777e2293f77a8b2f177df95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16241
content:
"A commonly used definition of MHWs is a period of at least 5 days whose temperatures are warmer than 90% \r\nof the historical records for that location and time of year. Marine heatwaves are described by their abruptness, \r\nmagnitude, duration, intensity and other metrics. In addition, targeted methods are used to characterize MHWs \r\nthat threaten particular ecosystems; for example, the accumulated heat stress above typical summer temperatures, \r\ndescribed by 'degree heating weeks', is used to estimate the likelihood of coral bleaching."


id: 88157a13230779d43f6bb808554cefbb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18932
content:
"Over the past century, MHWs have doubled in frequency, become more intense, lasted for longer and extended \r\nover larger areas. Marine heatwaves have occurred in every ocean region over the past few decades, most markedly \r\nin association with regional climate phenomena such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. During the 2015-2016 El \r\nNino event, 70% of the world's ocean surface encountered MHWs."


id: 93bdb7416613474d176a1fd68cae513d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20757
content:
"Such MHWs cause mortality of a wide variety of marine species, from corals to kelp to seagrasses to fish to seabirds, \r\nand they have consequent effects on ecosystems and industries such as mariculture and fisheries. Warm-water coral \r\nreefs, estuarine seagrass meadows and cold-temperate kelp forests are among the ecosystems most threatened by \r\nMHWs since they are attached to the seafloor (see FAQ 3.2). Unusually warm temperatures cause bleaching and \r\nassociated death of warm-water corals, which can lead to shifts to low-diversity or algae-dominated reefs, changes \r\nin fish communities and deterioration of the physical reef structure, which causes habitat loss and increases the \r\nvulnerability of nearby shorelines to large-wave events and SLR. Since the early 1980s, the frequency and severity \r\nof mass coral bleaching events have increased sharply worldwide. For example, from 2016 through 2020, the Great \r\nBarrier Reef experienced mass coral bleaching three times in 5 years."


id: 45dd534f61d5602926f8ef1efceae6c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8380
content:
"Mass loss of kelp from MHWs effects on the canopy-forming species has occurred across ocean basins, including \r\nthe coasts of Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. In southern Norway and the northeast USA, \r\nmortality from MHWs contributed to the decline of sugar kelp over the past two decades and the spread of turf \r\nalgal ecosystems that prevent recolonisation by the original canopy-forming species."


id: 3ef86b0be17c7cb13c1a852911ea39d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7291
content:
"One of the largest and longest-duration MHWs, nicknamed the 'Blob', occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, \r\nextending from California north towards the Bering Sea, from 2013 through 2015. Warming from the MHW persisted \r\ninto 2016 off the West Coast of the USA and into 2018 in the deeper waters of a Canadian fjord. The consequent \r\neffects of this expansive MHW included widespread shifts in abundance, distribution and nutritional value of \r\ninvertebrates and fish, a bloom of toxic algae off the West Coast of the USA that impacted fisheries, the decline of \r\nCalifornia kelp forests that contributed to the collapse of the abalone fishery, and mass mortality of seabirds."


id: 3a46a08a63700b815c013b4bdc9187eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6537
content:
"The projected increase in the frequency, severity, duration and areal extent of MHWs threaten many marine species \r\nand ecosystems. These MHWs may exceed the thermal limits of species, and they may occur too frequently for the \r\nspecies to acclimate or for populations to recover. The majority of the world's coral reefs are projected to decline \r\nand begin eroding due to more frequent bleaching-level MHWs if the world warms by more than 1.5degC. Recent \r\nresearch suggests possible shifts to more heat-tolerant coral communities but at the expense of species and habitat \r\ndiversity. Other systems, including kelp forests, are most threatened near the edges of their ranges, although more \r\nresearch is needed into the effect of re-occurring MHWs on kelp forests and other vulnerable systems."


id: d724103e1e75d3e1aa4022eaa7063c45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31364
content:
"The projected ecological impacts of MHWs threaten local communities and Indigenous Peoples, incomes, fisheries, \r\ntourism and, in the case of coral reefs, shoreline protection from waves. High-resolution forecasts and early-warning "


id: 107ff261f1bed92fdbc00b1ae9aa6cff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 79
content:
"systems, currently most advanced for coral reefs, can help people and industries prepare for MHWs and also collect \r\ndata on their effects. Identifying and protecting locations and habitats with reduced exposure to MHWs is a key \r\nscientific endeavour. For example, corals may be protected from MHWs in tidally stirred waters or in reefs where \r\ncooler water upwells from subsurface. Marine protected areas and no-take zones, in addition to terrestrial protection \r\nsurrounding vulnerable coastal ecosystems, cannot prevent MHWs from occurring. But, depending on the location \r\nand adherence by people to restrictions on certain activities, the cumulative effect of other stressors on vulnerable \r\necosystems can be reduced, potentially helping to enhance the rate of recovery of marine life."


id: 72cb7f4c5dac983fce14da8097d49d0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15671
content:
"Due to climate change, ocean heatwave days have increased by\r\n54% over the past century. Marine heatwaves cause mass mortalities \r\nin a wide variety of marine species."


id: d82c0fb0a5277037ba3f4d58a552c2e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31534
content:
"Figure FAQ3.2.1 |  Impact pathway of a massive extreme marine heatwave, the northwest Pacific 'Blob', from causal mechanisms to initial effects, \r\nresulting nonlinear effects and the consequent impacts for humans. Lessons learnt from the Blob include the need to advance seasonal forecasts, real-time \r\npredictions, monitoring responses, education, possible fisheries impacts and adaptation."


id: b55fc485ed0c2c83cc249aec9311ce85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26073
content:
"to ecological phase shifts (medium confidence). The upper vertical \r\nlimits of some species will also be constrained by climate change (high \r\nconfidence). Experimental evidence since previous assessments further \r\nindicates that acidification decreases abundance and richness of \r\ncalcifying species (high confidence), although there is limited evidence\r\nfor acclimation in some species. Synergistic effects of warming and \r\nacidification will promote shifts towards macroalgal dominance in \r\nsome ecosystems (medium confidence) and lead to reorganisation of \r\ncommunities (medium confidence)."


id: 9c235e00d8c192ff4e49d5f422820502
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22125
content:
"against local acidification (Xiao et al., 2021) and contribute to carbon \r\nstorage (Froehlich et al., 2019)."


id: b9a7735126c80189f81190c8a74857a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26750
content:
"Kelp are temperate, habitat-forming marine macroalgae or seaweeds, \r\nmostly of the order Laminariales, which extend across one\u0002quarter of the world's coastlines (Assis et al., 2020; Jayathilake and \r\nCostello, 2020). The perennial species form dense underwater forest \r\ncanopies and three-dimensional habitat that provides refuge for \r\nfish, crustaceans, invertebrates and marine mammals (Filbee-Dexter \r\net al., 2016; Wernberg et al., 2019). Kelp ecosystems support fisheries, \r\naquaculture, fertiliser and food provision, including for local and \r\nIndigenous Peoples, along with regulating services in the form of wave \r\nattenuation and habitat provision. Kelp aquaculture can also buffer "


id: 11ba0da52fc8fef8421cb14db3bb3ca3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 283
content:
"Trends in kelp abundance since 1950 are uneven globally (Krumhansl \r\net  al., 2016; Wernberg et  al., 2019), with population declines (e.g., \r\ngiant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera in Tasmania, Butler et al., 2020; and "


id: a55ef216b8d285583a005445686a02f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23584
content:
"Wernberg, 2020). Evidence from natural temperate CO2 seeps suggests \r\nthat ocean acidification at levels above those in RCP4.5 in 2100 could \r\noffset the increase in urchin abundance (Coni et  al., 2021). Genetic \r\nanalyses suggest that kelp populations at the midpoint of species' \r\nranges will have lower tolerance of warming than that implied by \r\nspecies distribution models, without assisted gene flow from warm\u0002edge populations (King et al., 2019; Wood et al., 2021)."


id: eab03fd1c7539452783834d7c9d4272a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34432
content:
"sugar kelp Saccharina latissima in the North Atlantic, Filbee-Dexter \r\net al., 2020b) more common than increases or no change (e.g., giant \r\nkelp Macrocystis pyrifera in southern Chile; Friedlander et al., 2020). \r\nWarming is driving range contraction and extirpation at the warm edge \r\nof species' ranges and expansions at the cold range edge (very high \r\nconfidence) (Smale, 2019; Filbee-Dexter et al., 2020b). Local declines \r\nin populations of kelp and other canopy-forming seaweeds driven by \r\nMHWs and other stressors have caused irreversible shifts to turf- or \r\nurchin-dominated ecosystems, with lower productivity and biodiversity \r\n(high confidence) (Filbee-Dexter and Scheibling, 2014; Filbee-Dexter \r\nand Wernberg, 2018; Rogers-Bennett and Catton, 2019; Beas-Luna \r\net al., 2020; Stuart-Smith et al., 2021), ecosystems dominated by warm\u0002affinity seaweeds or coral (high confidence) (Verges et al., 2019), and \r\nloss of genetic diversity (Coleman et al., 2020a; Gurgel et al., 2020)."


id: 75054782f6669fa67b4b46a5a71469a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16005
content:
"Species distribution models of kelp project range shifts and local \r\nextirpations with increasing levels of warming (Japan: Takao et  al., \r\n2015, Sudo et  al., 2020; Australia: see Table  11.6, and Assis et  al., \r\n2018, Martinez et  al., 2018, Castro et  al., 2020; Europe: de la Hoz \r\net al., 2019; North America: Wilson et al., 2019; South America: see \r\nFigure  12.3). There is high agreement on the direction but not the \r\nmagnitude of change (Martinez et al., 2018; Castro et al., 2020), but \r\neffects of MHWs are not simulated. Where the length of higher-latitude \r\ncoastlines is limited, range contractions are projected to occur, even \r\nwith 2degC of global warming (i.e., SSP1-2.6) due to loss of habitat at \r\nthe warm edge of species' ranges (Martinez et  al., 2018). Poleward \r\nexpansion of warm-affinity herbivores, including urchins, could further \r\nreduce warm-edge kelp populations (Castro et al., 2020; Mulders and "


id: 76968b71447078043d35321f6fc537af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16240
content:
"Building on the conclusions of SROCC, this assessment finds that kelp \r\necosystems are expected to decline and undergo changes in community \r\nstructure in the future due to warming and increasing frequency and \r\nintensity of MHWs (high confidence). Risk of loss of kelp ecosystems "


id: c83fd4ae38cd84e4de11530af8c2b909
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29082
content:
"the vulnerability of estuarine shorelines to submergence by SLR and \r\nerosion by wave action (medium confidence) (Zhu et al., 2020b)."


id: 131a6675773318b9351c1308ee4f5096
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 519
content:
"and shifts to turf- or urchin-dominated ecosystems are highest at the \r\nwarm edge of species' ranges (high confidence) and risks increase \r\nunder RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 by the end of the century (high confidence)."


id: 467bfbfca90bc1d98e79cd788896505
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8470
content:
"Drought and freshwater abstraction can reduce freshwater inflows \r\nto estuaries and lagoons, increasing salinity, reducing water quality \r\n(Brooker and Scharler, 2020) and depleting resident macrophyte \r\ncommunities (Scanes et al., 2020b). Changes in freshwater input and \r\nSLR, combined with land-use change, can alter inputs of land-based \r\nsediments, causing expansion (Suyadi et al., 2019; Magolan and Halls, \r\n2020) or contraction (Andres et al., 2019; Appeaning Addo et al., 2020; \r\nLi et  al., 2020b) of intertidal habitats. The same phenomena alter \r\nsalinity gradients, which are the primary drivers of estuarine species \r\ndistributions (high confidence) (Douglass et  al., 2020; Lauchlan and \r\nNagelkerken, 2020). Extreme reduction of freshwater input can extend \r\nresidence time of estuarine water, leading to persistent HABs (Lehman \r\net al., 2020) and converting estuaries to lagoons if the mouth clogs \r\nwith sediment (Thom et al., 2020)."


id: 7445c75f063c4a854e9723b52285d264
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15886
content:
"Estuarine biota are sensitive to warming (high confidence), with recent \r\nresponses including changes in abundance of some fish stocks (Erickson \r\net al., 2021; Woodland et al., 2021), poleward shifts in distributions \r\nof fish species, communities and associated biogeographic transition \r\nzones (Table 12.3; Franco et al., 2020; Troast et al., 2020), recruits of \r\nwarm-affinity species persisting into winter (Kimball et al., 2020) and \r\nchanges in seasonal timing of peaks in species abundance (Kimball \r\net al., 2020). MHWs can be more severe in estuaries than in adjacent \r\ncoastal seas (Lonhart et al., 2019), causing conspicuous impacts (very \r\nhigh confidence), including mass mortality of intertidal vegetation \r\n(Section  3.4.2.5), range shifts in algae and animals (Lonhart et  al., \r\n2019) and reduced spawning success among invertebrates (Shanks \r\net al., 2020)."


id: efbb0c07c41d9fecc33460dc4e95bb9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35219
content:
"(medium confidence) (Waycott et al., 2009; Sousa et al., 2019; Derolez \r\net al., 2020; Green et al., 2021a). Local examples of habitat stability or \r\ngrowth (e.g., de los Santos et al., 2019; Laengner et al., 2019; Sousa \r\net al., 2019; Suyadi et al., 2019; Derolez et al., 2020; Goldberg et al., \r\n2020; McKenzie and Yoshida, 2020) indicate some resilience to climate \r\nchange in the absence of non-climate drivers (high confidence). \r\nNevertheless, previous declines have left wetland ecosystems more \r\nvulnerable to impacts from climate-induced drivers and non-climate \r\ndrivers (high confidence) (Friess et al., 2019; Williamson and Guinder, \r\n2021)."


id: fcd1a96368526808d86898b42845d187
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37289
content:
"variability (high confidence) (Day and Rybczyk, 2019; Kendrick et al., \r\n2019; Shields et al., 2019). Global rates of mangrove loss have been \r\nextensive but are slowing (high confidence) at least partially due to \r\nmanagement interventions (Friess et al., 2020b; Goldberg et al., 2020). \r\nFrom 2000 to 2010 mangrove loss averaged 0.16% yr-1, globally, but \r\nwith greatest loss in Southeast Asia (high confidence) (Hamilton and \r\nCasey, 2016; Friess et al., 2019; Goldberg et al., 2020) and ubiquitous \r\nfragmentation leaving few mangroves intact (Bryan-Brown et  al., \r\n2020). Salt-marsh ecosystems have also suffered extensive losses (up \r\nto 60% in places since the 1980s), especially in developed and rapidly \r\ndeveloping countries (medium confidence) (Table 12.3; Gu et al., 2018; \r\nStein et al., 2020). Similarly, 29% of seagrass meadows were lost from \r\n1879-to 2006 due primarily to coastal development and degradation \r\nof water quality, with climate-change impacts escalating since 1990 "


id: b94be5f541b9927e627d7f1a3cfb54d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26694
content:
"Warming and MHWs have affected the range, species composition \r\nand survival of some wetland ecosystems. Warming is allowing some, \r\nbut not all (Rogers and Krauss, 2018; Saintilan et al., 2018), mangrove "


id: 13e2c0ea4fcc0de767e35a0a64ad6020
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 637
content:
"Table 3.8 |  Estimates of vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise (SLR) on the basis of sediment cores"


id: b9ee83e0692d4ca03820918eb0f2f465
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26793
content:
"For seagrasses, recent projections for climate-change impacts vary \r\nby species and region. Warming is projected to increase the habitat \r\navailable to Zostera marina on the east coast of the USA by 2100 but \r\ncontract its southern range edge by 150-650 km under RCP2.6 and \r\nRCP8.5, respectively (Wilson and Lotze, 2019). Other species, such \r\nas Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean, might lose as much as \r\n75% of their habitat by 2050 under RCP8.5 and become functionally \r\nextinct (low confidence) by 2100 (Chefaoui et  al., 2018). Observed \r\nimpacts of MHWs (Kendrick et al., 2019; Strydom et al., 2020; Serrano \r\net al., 2021) indicate that increasing intensity and frequency of MHWs \r\n(Section 3.2.2.1) will have escalating impacts on seagrass ecosystems \r\n(high confidence). Habitat suitability can also be reduced by moderate \r\nRSLR, due to its impact on light attenuation (medium confidence) \r\n(Aoki et al., 2020; Ondiviela et al., 2020; Scalpone et al., 2020)."


id: 3cdb4ed809bd49aa25633e1abcf678b1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6939
content:
"by 2100 under all scenarios except SSP1-1.9 (high confidence). MHWs \r\npose the greatest risk to seagrasses (high confidence). In all cases, \r\nlosses will be greatest where accommodation space is constrained or \r\nwhere other non-climate drivers exacerbate risk from climate-induced \r\ndrivers (very high confidence)."


id: fc13ec56266f2269809feb98ce907329
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37160
content:
"by coastal protection of areas at risk of erosion (Section  3.6.3.1.1; \r\nCross-Chapter  Box  SLR in Chapter  3). Nevertheless, RSLR, increases \r\nin wave energy and/or changes in wave direction, disruptions to \r\nsediment supplies (including sand mining) and other anthropogenic \r\nmodifications of the coast have driven localised beach erosion (very \r\nhigh confidence) at rates up to 0.5-3 m yr-1 (Vitousek et al., 2017a; \r\nVitousek et  al., 2017b; Cambers and Wynne, 2019; Enriquez-de\u0002Salamanca, 2020; Sharples et  al., 2020). Corresponding analyses \r\nof coarse-scale (30-m resolution) global data estimate that 15% of \r\ntidal flats (including beaches) have been lost since 1984 (medium \r\nconfidence) (Mentaschi et al., 2018; Murray et al., 2019) but with a \r\ncorresponding number of the world's beaches accreting (28%) as \r\neroding (24%) (medium confidence) (Luijendijk et al., 2018)."


id: 3b8dbba4f1ff05c707f279819b13fe6b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6720
content:
"Sandy beaches comprise unvegetated, fine- to medium-grained \r\nsediments in the intertidal zones that line roughly one-third of the \r\nlength of the world's ice-free coastlines (Luijendijk et al., 2018). The \r\namenity value of beaches as cultural, recreational and residential \r\ndestinations has driven extensive urbanisation of beach-associated \r\ncoastlines (Todd et al., 2019). Beaches also provide habitat for many \r\nresident species, nesting habitat for marine vertebrates, filtration \r\nof coastal waters and protection of the coastline from erosion \r\n(McLachlan and Defeo, 2018). These soft-sediment coastal ecosystems \r\nare particularly vulnerable to habitat loss caused by erosion, especially \r\nwhere landward transgression is inhibited by infrastructure (Table 3.9)."


id: e8dd9793b9439f6fa0edf4c9ec88fbad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34154
content:
"Progress is being made towards models that can project beach \r\nerosion under future scenarios despite inherent uncertainties and \r\nthe presence of multiple confounding drivers in the coastal zone \r\n(Vitousek et al., 2017b; Le Cozannet et al., 2019; Cooper et al., 2020a; \r\nVousdoukas et al., 2020b; Vousdoukas et al., 2020a). In the interim, \r\nmodels with varying levels of complexity estimate local loss of beach \r\narea to SLR by 2100 under RCP8.5-like scenarios, assuming minimal \r\nhuman intervention, ranging 30-70% (low confidence) (Vitousek "


id: 816948ab44dfe5c1490bf130f6255493
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17888
content:
"by surrounding landscapes, local and global climate-induced drivers, \r\nas well as non-climate drivers (Section  3.1), making them highly \r\nvulnerable to cumulative threats. Key climate-induced drivers in SES \r\nare warming, increasing frequency and duration of MHWs, acidification \r\nand the increasing in size and number of OMZs (Figure 3.12; Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et  al., 2014). In AR5, SES were recognised as regionally \r\nsignificant for fisheries and tourism but highly exposed to both local \r\nand global stressors, offering limited options for organisms to migrate \r\nin response to climate change (Table 3.10)."


id: 5aede0c807a15a310fd2d0bc197c455b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11820
content:
"New literature since SROCC on climate impacts and risks has been \r\nscarce for most beach taxa besides turtles. (The impacts of storms on \r\nbeach fauna are variable and are described in SM3.3.1.) Nevertheless, \r\ntheoretical sensitivity to warming (Section  3.3.2), together with the \r\nprojected loss of habitat under future climate scenarios, suggest \r\nsubstantial impacts for populations and communities of beach fauna \r\ninto the future (high confidence). These impacts will be exacerbated by \r\ncoastal squeeze along urbanised coastlines (high confidence), albeit \r\nwith magnitudes that cannot yet be accurately projected (McLachlan \r\nand Defeo, 2018; Le Cozannet et al., 2019; Leo et al., 2019)."


id: edaa05944a96aae12a0ff2b237ec0c60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34857
content:
"The size and number of OMZs are increasing worldwide and in most \r\nSES (high confidence) (Global Ocean Oxygen Network, 2018), with \r\ngrowing impacts on fish species diversity and ecosystem functioning. In \r\nthe Persian Gulf and Red Sea, increasing nutrient loads associated with \r\ncoastal activities and warming has increased the size of OMZs (high \r\nconfidence) (Al-Said et al., 2018; Lachkar et al., 2019). OMZs represent \r\nan even greater problem in the Black and Baltic seas, with broad "


id: 9a7f0c16a9dccfec430a355ec2ba1ec6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21834
content:
"This section assesses impacts on five SES, or seas larger than \r\n200,000 km2\r\n with single entrances <120 km wide, including the Persian \r\nGulf, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean \r\nSea. These SES are largely landlocked and are thus heavily influenced "


id: 48f2e0815cee1bce3e25f3a2115315d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8862
content:
"eastern and decreasing in the western Mediterranean (medium to \r\nhigh confidence) (Albouy et al., 2013; Macias et al., 2015). Projections \r\nalso show greater impacts from SLR than originally expected in the \r\nMediterranean and Baltic (e.g., Dieterich et  al., 2019; Thieblemont \r\net al., 2019). In the Baltic Sea, under high nutrient load and warming \r\nclimate scenarios, eutrophication is projected to increase in the future \r\n(2069-2098) compared with historical (1976-2005) periods. In \r\ncontrast, under continued nutrient load reductions following present \r\nmanagement regulations, environmental conditions and ecological \r\nstate will continue to improve independently of the climate-warming \r\nscenarios (low to medium confidence) (Saraiva et al., 2019)."


id: 7ee1a6f634a00341745bb9033ba9ec48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17524
content:
"implications for ecosystem function and services (Levin et al., 2009), \r\nespecially where actions to reduce nutrient loading from land have \r\nbeen unable to reduce the OMZ coverage (high confidence) (Carstensen \r\net al., 2014; Miladinova et al., 2017; Global Ocean Oxygen Network, \r\n2018). In the Baltic Sea, OMZs are affecting the extent of suitable \r\nspawning areas of cod, Gadus morhua (high confidence) (Hinrichsen \r\net al., 2016), while in the Black Sea, the combined effect of OMZs and \r\nwarming is influencing the distribution and physiology of fish species, \r\nand their migration and schooling behaviour in their overwintering \r\ngrounds (medium confidence) (Guraslan et al., 2017). Cascading effects \r\non food webs have been reported in the Baltic, where detrimental \r\neffects of changing oxygen levels on zooplankton production, pelagic \r\nand piscivorous fish are influencing seasonal succession and species \r\ncomposition of phytoplankton (high confidence) (Viitasalo et al., 2015)."


id: f96805e671ca66efab870145d7df9da6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36749
content:
"Shelf seas overlie the continental margin, often with maximum depths \r\nof <200 m, and represent 7% of the global ocean by area (Simpson \r\nand Sharples, 2012). These ecosystems are found offshore of every \r\ncontinent, generate 10-30% (Mackenzie et al., 2000; Andersson and \r\nMackenzie, 2004) of global marine net primary production and play a \r\nkey role in global biogeochemical cycling, including the export of land\u0002borne carbon and nutrients (Johnson et al., 1999; Nishioka et al., 2011; \r\nLi et al., 2019) to the deep ocean and recycling of fixed nitrogen back \r\nto the atmosphere via denitrification (Devol, 2015). The shelf seas are \r\nhome to several of the world's major industrial capture fisheries, such \r\nas those of the mid-Atlantic Bight, Scotian Shelf, Eastern Bering Sea \r\nShelf and North Brazil Shelf (Barange et al., 2018), and support other \r\nmarine industries, including aquaculture, extractive industries (oil, gas \r\nand mining), shipping and renewable energy installations."


id: c815189c8d76fa203098c04169330f69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29061
content:
"Climate models project increasing frequency and intensity of MHWs \r\n(high confidence) (Section  3.2.2.1), which will exacerbate warming\u0002driven impacts in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf regions, and erode \r\nthe resilience of Red Sea coral reefs (high confidence) (Osman et al., \r\n2018; Genevier et al., 2019; Kleinhaus et al., 2020). In the Persian Gulf \r\nregion, extreme temperatures, >35degC (Pal and Eltahir, 2016), have \r\nbeen linked with high rates of extirpation and a decrease in fisheries \r\ncatch potential (medium confidence) (Wabnitz et  al., 2018b). In the \r\nMediterranean Sea, east-west gradients in rates of warming are \r\nprojected to trigger spatially different changes in primary production, \r\nwhich combined with the increasing arrival of non-indigenous species, \r\nmay trigger biogeographic changes in fish diversity, increasing in the "


id: 2fecb8c16b608125b34a9d2f5e12eff8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4966
content:
"Key risks to shelf seas include shifts or declines in marine micro- and \r\nmacro-organism abundance and diversity driven by eutrophication, \r\nHABs and extreme events (storms and MHWs), and consequent effects \r\non fisheries, resource extraction, transportation, tourism and marine \r\nrenewable energy (Figure 3.12). The combined effects of deoxygenation \r\nand warming can affect the metabolism, growth, feeding behaviour \r\nand mobility of fish species (Section 3.3.3). The increasing availability \r\nof observations mean that ecosystem changes in shelf seas can be \r\nincreasingly attributed to climate change (high confidence) (Liang "


id: ac21e875215d388591c705063e1bb332
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24614
content:
"et al., 2018; Maharaj et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2019; Meyer and Kroncke, \r\n2019; Bargahi et  al., 2020; Bedford et  al., 2020; Friedland et  al., \r\n2020b; Merillet et  al., 2020). Eutrophication and seasonal bottom\u0002water hypoxia in some shelf seas have been linked to warming (high \r\nconfidence) (Wei et al., 2019; Del Giudice et al., 2020) and increased \r\nriverine nutrient loading (high confidence) (Wei et al., 2019; Del Giudice \r\net al., 2020). Since SROCC, some severe HABs have been attributed to \r\nextreme events, such as MHWs (Section 14.4.2; Roberts et al., 2019; \r\nTrainer et al., 2019); however, a recent worldwide assessment of HABs \r\nattributed the increase in observed HABs to intensified monitoring \r\nassociated with increased aquaculture production (high confidence) \r\n(Hallegraeff et al., 2021)."


id: 709ef2ee5474c6fe60fa1508fc7512a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15338
content:
"A wide range of responses by fish and invertebrate populations \r\nto warming have been observed. The majority of responses have \r\nbeen detrimental, with the direction and magnitude of the response \r\ndepending on ecoregion, taxonomy, life history and exploitation history \r\n(Free et al., 2019; Yati et al., 2020). For example, fisheries productivity "


id: eeea36247deee177b81601fdcdc5b3af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35061
content:
"Table 3.12 |  Synthesis of interactive effects and their influence on shelf-sea ecosystems and the fisheries and aquaculture they support"


id: 787dd5479e91c3ee27f511ce1ff43b07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16518
content:
"has strongly decreased in the North Sea (Free et al., 2019), and fisheries \r\nyields have also decreased in the Celtic Sea, attributed primarily to \r\nwarming and secondarily to long-term exploitation (Hernvann and \r\nGascuel, 2020; Merillet et al., 2020). Conversely, fish species diversity \r\nand overall productivity have increased in the Gulf of Maine, even with \r\nwarming (Le Bris et al., 2018; Friedland et al., 2020a; Friedland et al., \r\n2020b). Fisheries yields have decreased in the Yellow Sea, East China \r\nSea and South China Sea partially due to overexploitation (Ma et al., \r\n2019; Wang et al., 2019c), with warming exerting more influence on \r\nthe yield of cold-water species than on temperate- and warm-water \r\ngroups (Ma et  al., 2019). The combined effects of exploitation and \r\nmulti-decadal climate fluctuations make it difficult to assess global \r\nclimate-change impacts on fisheries yields (Chapter 5; Ma et al., 2019; \r\nBentley et al., 2020b; Johnson et al., 2020)."


id: 4d5d0c6d849ad7eddac6d38b75366b2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9603
content:
"Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) comprise four important \r\nsocial-ecological systems in the Pacific (California and Peru-Humboldt) \r\nand Atlantic (Canary and Benguela) ocean basins. Each is characterised \r\nby high primary production, sustained by wind-driven upwelling that \r\ndraws cold, nutrient-rich, generally low-pH and low-oxygen water to \r\nthe surface (Bindoff et  al., 2019a). Despite their small relative size, \r\nthe primary productivity in EBUS supports a vast biomass of marine \r\nconsumers, including some of the world's most productive fisheries \r\n(Pauly and Zeller, 2016), along with many species of conservation \r\nsignificance (Bakun et al., 2015)."


id: e00d9bea8ba4190200b5aca35740c968
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32741
content:
"Although upwelling is important in many other oceanic regions, we \r\nfocus here on the most documented examples provided by the EBUS. Yet \r\neven here, observed changes in upwelling, temperature, acidification \r\nand loss of oxygen (Seabra et  al., 2019; Abrahams et  al., 2021; \r\nGallego et al., 2021; Varela et al., 2021) cannot be robustly attributed \r\nto anthropogenic climate change, and projected future changes in \r\nupwelling are expected to be relatively small and variable among and \r\nwithin EBUS (Section 3.2.2.3; WGI AR6 Chapter 9; Fox-Kemper et al., \r\n2021). We therefore have few updates to assessments provided by AR5 \r\nand SROCC (Table 3.13) and restrict our brief assessment to the limited \r\namount of new evidence (Figure 3.12)."


id: 626758168397448ad38ee480228c8b6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13044
content:
"The California EBUS is arguably the best-studied of the four ecosystems \r\nin terms of robust projections of climate change, although even here, \r\nthere is limited evidence and low agreement among projections. For \r\nexample, trends in outputs from high-resolution, downscaled models in \r\nthe California EBUS generally reflect those from underlying coarser-scale \r\nESMs, but projections for physical variables are more convergent among \r\nmodelling approaches than are those for biogeochemical variables (high \r\nconfidence) (Howard et al., 2020a; Pozo Buil et al., 2021). Models agree \r\non general warming in the California EBUS, with concomitant declines \r\nin oxygen content (medium confidence) (Howard et al., 2020b; Fiechter \r\net al., 2021; Pozo Buil et al., 2021). But implications for the future spatial \r\ndistribution of species, including for some fisheries resources (Howard "


id: fe3cafe6013b0aeebb63bdb70f8ac44d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37529
content:
"'[EBUS] are vulnerable to changes that influence the intensity of currents, upwelling and \r\nmixing (and hence changes in sea surface temperature, wind strength and direction), as well \r\nas O2 content, carbonate chemistry, nutrient content and the supply of organic carbon to \r\ndeep offshore locations (high confidence).'"


id: ca6be168accdfbff5e5177f8692e3e62
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29407
content:
"Since SROCC, evidence demonstrates that warmer oceans, less sea \r\nice and increased advection results in increasing primary production \r\nin the Arctic, albeit with regional variation (high confidence), while \r\ntrends remain spatially heterogeneous and less clear in the Antarctic \r\n(medium confidence) (Cross-Chapter  Paper 6; Del Castillo et  al., \r\n2019; Lewis et al., 2020; Pinkerton et al., 2021; Song et al., 2021a). \r\nFurthermore, climate warming influences key mechanisms determining \r\nenergy transfer between trophic levels including (a) altered size \r\nspectra, (b) shifts in trophic pathways, (c) phenological mismatches \r\nand (d) increased top-down trophic regulation (Table 3.15); however, \r\nthe scale of impacts from changes in these mechanisms on ecosystem \r\nproductivity in warming polar oceans remains unresolved and is hence \r\nassigned low confidence."


id: a4f730c20d332ba282ace48e92f48233
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23522
content:
"frequency and duration increasing strongly (Section  3.2.2.1), the \r\nnumber of MHW days  yr-1 within EBUS has been increasing more \r\nslowly (or decreasing faster, in the case of the Peru-Humboldt system) \r\nthan in surrounding waters (Varela et al., 2021). Notwithstanding these \r\ntrends, EBUS remain vulnerable both to MHWs (high confidence) (Sen \r\nGupta et al., 2020) and to their long-lasting impacts (high confidence) \r\n(Arafeh-Dalmau et  al., 2019; Harvell et  al., 2019; McPherson et  al., \r\n2021). On this basis, the suggestion that EBUS may represent refugia \r\nfrom MHWs is accorded low confidence."


id: 4a38bff3ce5a04ddc20b64e0f4318608
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9086
content:
"Despite low confidence in detailed projections for ecological changes \r\nin EBUS, the WGI assessment (WGI AR6 Chapter  9; Fox-Kemper \r\net  al., 2021) that upwelling-favourable winds will weaken (or be \r\npresent for shorter durations) at low latitude but intensify at high \r\nlatitude (high confidence), albeit by no more than 20% in either case \r\n(medium confidence), presents some key risks to associated EBUS \r\necosystems. These risks include potential decreases in provisioning \r\nservices, including fisheries and marine aquaculture (Bertrand et al., \r\n2018; Kifani et al., 2018; Lluch-Cota et al., 2018; van der Lingen and \r\nHampton, 2018), and cultural services such as nature-based tourism \r\n(Section 3.5)."


id: a0674554124127483a47ed59e20640ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22776
content:
"Previous assessments of polar seas (Table 3.14) concluded that climate \r\nchange has already profoundly influenced polar ecosystems, through \r\nchanging species distributions and abundances from primary producers \r\nto top predators, including both ecologically and economically important \r\nspecies (high confidence), and that it will continue to do so (Table 3.14)."


id: 441707d167ad8337b0b9577a948b4f60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8129
content:
"Table 3.15 |  Examples of mechanisms influencing the transfer of energy between lower trophic levels in warmer polar oceans"


id: cb34d2b4237d763c67f00c6ded659677
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29529
content:
"The oceanic zone, comprising >99% of the ocean's volume, is highly \r\nexposed to climate-induced drivers because of its proximity to the \r\natmosphere (Section 3.2; Portner et al., 2014; Bindoff et al., 2019a), while \r\nits relative distance from human settlements and coastal ecosystems \r\ndecreases variability and interactions, and permits many phenomena to \r\nbe detected clearly and attributed to climate change. This section assesses \r\nhow climate-driven changes influence oceanic biological systems over \r\nvery large spatial scales and notes how impacts on the epipelagic zone \r\naffect the mesopelagic, bathypelagic and deep seafloor ecosystems."


id: 6c83db220747f41963a5a9b8a05c454f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14697
content:
"While levels of pollutants in biota (e.g., persistent organic pollutants, \r\nmercury) have generally declined over the past decades, recent \r\nincreasing levels are associated with release from reservoirs in ice, \r\nsnow and permafrost, and through changing food webs and pathways \r\nfor trophic amplification (medium confidence) (see Box 3.2; Ma et al., \r\n2016; Amelineau et al., 2019; Foster et al., 2019; Bourque et al., 2020; \r\nKobusinska et al., 2020). Also, a warmer climate, altered ocean currents \r\nand increased human activities elevate the risk of invasive species in \r\nthe Arctic (medium confidence), potentially changing ecosystems in \r\nthis region (high confidence) (Chan et al., 2019; Goldsmit et al., 2020). \r\nIn the remote Antarctic, there is a lower risk of invasive species (limited \r\nevidence) (McCarthy et al., 2019; Holland et al., 2021)."


id: d6be221ed09a0dd58d48f982f1b40a74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31293
content:
"Fisheries are largely sustainably managed yet are expanding polewards \r\nfollowing sea ice melt in the Arctic (high confidence) (Fauchald \r\net  al., 2021) and possibly in the Antarctic (limited evidence) (Santa \r\nCruz et al., 2018). Tourism is increasing and expanding in both polar \r\nregions, while shipping and hydrocarbon exploration are growing in \r\nthe Arctic, increasing the risks of compound effects on vulnerable \r\nand already stressed populations and ecosystems (high confidence) \r\n(Sections  3.6.3.1.3, 3.6.3.1.4; Cross-Chapter  Paper 6; Hauser et  al., \r\n2018; Meredith et  al., 2019; Helle et  al., 2020; Rogers et  al., 2020; \r\nCavanagh et al., 2021)."


id: 70d2b6e1c8979d28def7bc14e458b8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15383
content:
"Since previous assessments (Table 3.16), poleward range shifts have \r\nremained a ubiquitous response to climate change (high confidence), \r\nmoving species from warmer regions into higher-latitude ecosystems \r\n(Fossheim et  al., 2015; Kumagai et  al., 2018; Burrows et  al., 2019; \r\nLenoir et al., 2020)."


id: 595aaa6fe9696457e19330385e758ebd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11550
content:
"A global meta-analysis of range shifts (Lenoir et  al., 2020) that \r\nincluded data from 951 species (over half of which exhibited median "


id: 524246d1ea5daa6c7a1c48767c697941
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10395
content:
"range shifts consistent with climate change) estimates that marine \r\nspecies are moving poleward at a rate of 59.2 km per decade (very \r\nlikely range: 43.7-74.7 km per decade), closely matching the local \r\nclimate velocity (high confidence). In some cases, warming-related \r\ndistribution shifts were followed by density-dependent use of these \r\nareas, influencing associated fisheries (Baudron et al., 2020), and in \r\nothers, warming influenced competitive interactions: in the Arctic\u0002Boreal Barents Sea, warming-induced increases in cod (Gadus morhua) "


id: 921376acedf21d3d168fbd5c048a07bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20507
content:
"Biogeographic shifts lead to novel communities and biotic interactions \r\n(high confidence) (Zarco-Perello et al., 2017; Pecuchet et al., 2020b), \r\nwith concomitant changes in ecosystem functioning and servicing \r\n(high confidence) (Verges et al., 2019; Nagelkerken et al., 2020; Peleg \r\net al., 2020). For instance, temperature-driven changes in distribution "


id: fe3aa50377a02e144c3dd22465a5a958
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37528
content:
"Table 3.17 |  Synthesis of selected processes conditioned by multiple environmental drivers that interact with warming to ultimately define range-shift responses"


id: 77c7142c6c2015d89e76f3a423466e7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16404
content:
"and abundance of copepods, the dominant zooplankton, were \r\nobserved between 1960 and 2014 in the North Atlantic. These changes \r\nsubsequently affect biogenic carbon cycling through alteration of \r\nmicrobial remineralisation and carbon sequestration in deep water \r\n(medium confidence) (Section 3.4.3.6; Pitois and Fox, 2006; Brun et al., \r\n2019)."


id: df2cb60d847ae2980ced82dda0c5d42c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32613
content:
"SROCC reported high confidence in phenological shifts towards earlier \r\nonset of biological events (Table 3.18), with phenological shifts among \r\nepipelagic species attributed to ocean warming (high confidence)."


id: 5e441199406872a4494d1a6dda35c755
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12357
content:
"Continued changes in the biogeography of marine predators and prey \r\nare anticipated under future climate change, with climate velocity in \r\nthe epipelagic zone during 2050-2100 under RCP8.5 projected to be \r\nsevenfold faster than that during 1955-2005 (medium confidence) \r\n(Figure 3.4; Brito-Morales et al., 2020). This has substantial ecological \r\nimplications, as projections suggest near elimination of overlaps \r\nbetween the distributions of certain predator-prey pairs in the \r\nnortheast Atlantic Ocean when their current joint distributions (1989-\r\n2014) are compared with those projected (2037-2062) under RCP8.5 \r\n(Sadykova et al., 2020)."


id: f64fbfe8d6f0d078f81bc62972bf3826
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36261
content:
"Deepening of epipelagic isotherms is projected to accelerate over \r\n2006-2100 to rates of 8.5 m per decade under RCP4.5 and 32 m \r\nper decade under RCP8.5 (Jorda et  al., 2020). Although vertical \r\nredistribution of thermal niches is three to four orders of magnitude \r\nslower than horizontal displacement, maximum depth limits imposed \r\nby the seafloor and photic layer (both of which are projected to be \r\nreached in this century) will likely vertically compress suitable habitat \r\nfor most marine organisms (medium confidence) (Dueri et al., 2014; \r\nJorda et al., 2020)."


id: 5e0b3e9f99096b9e9bbaa6e67abb98ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12326
content:
"Projections from coupled biogeochemical and ecosystem models \r\nsuggest a general decline in mesopelagic biomass (Lefort et al., 2015), \r\nalthough this may vary among ocean basins. The volume of OMZs \r\nhave been expanding at many locations (high confidence), and the \r\noxygen content of the subsurface ocean is projected to decline to \r\nhistorically unprecedented conditions over the 21st century (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section 3.2.3.2; WGI AR6 Section 5.3.3.2; Canadell et al., \r\n2021) at a rate of 10-15 uM per decade in OMZs (Section  3.2.3.2; "


id: c3e737162cce282271ce916ef2d0e515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28395
content:
"'Phenological metrics for many species of marine organisms have changed in the last half century (high confidence), though many regions and \r\nmany species of marine organisms remain under-sampled or even unsampled. The changes vary with location and with species (high confidence). \r\nThere is a strong dependence of survival in higher trophic-level organisms (fish, exploited invertebrates, birds) on the availability of food at various \r\nstages in their life cycle, which in turn depends on the phenologies of both (high confidence). There is a gap in our understanding of how the varied \r\nresponses of marine organisms to climate change, from a phenological perspective, might threaten the stability and integrity of entire ecosystems.'"


id: 15d6727b1a8bc59d8ca486c4ab09bb04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 958
content:
"as seen in breeding of surface-feeding and deeper-diving seabirds \r\n(Descamps et al., 2019). These differential responses could determine \r\n'winners' and 'losers' under future climate change (Linden, 2018)."


id: 235ff1ed509b0b3a73838c4bb0399f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3019
content:
"growth period will  very likely advance in the Arctic Ocean under a \r\nhigh-emission scenario for CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Figure 3.17b; Henson \r\net al., 2018b; Asch et al., 2019; Tedesco et al., 2019; Lannuzel et al., \r\n2020). The CMIP6 ensemble projections further show limited changes \r\nin phenology across most of the Southern Ocean but large regional \r\nvariations in the tropics (Figure  3.17). Overall, the regional patterns \r\nare qualitatively similar under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 but with greater \r\nmagnitude and larger areas under SSP5-8.5 (low confidence)."


id: 1b5a759a48b7810649a11b2772605424
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1762
content:
"At latitudes >40degN, temperature-linked phenology of fish reproduction \r\nwith high geographic fidelity to spawning grounds (geographic spawners) \r\nis projected to change at double the rate of that for phytoplankton, \r\nwhich will likely cause phenological mismatches resulting in increased \r\nrisk of starvation for fish larvae (medium to high confidence) (WGI \r\nAR6 Section 2.3.4.2.3; Asch et al., 2019; Durant et al., 2019; Regnier \r\net al., 2019; Gulev et al., 2021; Laurel et al., 2021). Furthermore, under \r\nRCP8.5, trophic mismatch events exceeding +-30 days (Asch et al., 2019) \r\nleading to fish-recruitment failure are expected to increase tenfold for \r\ngeographic spawners across much of the North Atlantic, North Pacific \r\nand Arctic Ocean basins (low confidence) (Neuheimer et al., 2018). In \r\ncontrast, temporal mismatches between fish that relocate spawning "


id: 4a105d0601ef7ea582ca81ba3cbd2d56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9055
content:
"grounds in response to environmental variations (environmental \r\nspawners) and phytoplankton blooms are projected to remain shorter \r\nand less varied, suggesting that across ocean basins, range shifts by \r\nenvironmental spawners may increase their resilience. Nevertheless, this \r\ncompensation mechanism might fail at locations where phytoplankton \r\nbloom phenology is not controlled by temperature-driven water-column \r\nstratification, leading to a possible sixfold local increase in extreme \r\nmismatches under climate change (Asch et al., 2019)."


id: 83448d852b0feeadf009627930a7c44c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18173
content:
"Responses to abrupt climate change in the geological past suggest \r\nthat adaptive capacity is limited for marine animals (Cross\u0002Chapter  Box  PALEO in Chapter  1). Temperatures during the last \r\nInterglacial (~125 ka), which were warmer than today, led to poleward \r\nrange shifts of reef corals (medium confidence) (Kiessling et al., 2012; \r\nJones et al., 2019a). Temperature has also driven marine range shifts \r\nover multi-million-year time scales (medium confidence) (Gibbs et al., \r\n2016; Reddin et al., 2018). Warming climates, even with low ocean\u0002warming rates, inevitably decreased tropical marine biodiversity \r\ncompared with middle latitudes (high confidence) (Mannion et  al., \r\n2014; Crame, 2020; Yasuhara et al., 2020; Raja and Kiessling, 2021)."


id: e61da807db8407fb0631e0deb2b40dd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33696
content:
"The paleorecord confirms that marine biodiversity has been vulnerable \r\nto climate warming both globally and regionally (very high confidence) \r\n(Cross-Chapter  Box  PALEO in Chapter  1; Stanley, 2016). In extreme \r\ncases of warming (e.g., >5.2degC), marine mass extinctions occurred \r\nin the geological past, and there may be a relationship between \r\nwarming magnitude and extinction toll (medium confidence) (Song \r\net al., 2021b). A combination of warming and spreading anoxia caused \r\nmarine extinctions in ancient episodes of rapid climate warming (high \r\nconfidence) (Bond and Grasby, 2017; Benton, 2018; Penn et al., 2018; \r\nThem II et al., 2018; Chen and Xu, 2019). The role of ocean acidification \r\nin ancient extinctions is yet to be resolved (low confidence) (Clapham \r\nand Payne, 2011; Clarkson et al., 2015; Jurikova et al., 2020; Muller \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 920281b2561cdd7de3e7384592fa340c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20495
content:
"Ocean temperature is a major driver of species richness in the \r\nglobal ocean at evolutionary time scales (Tittensor et  al., 2010; \r\nChaudhary et al., 2021). This, together with temperature-driven range \r\nand phenology shifts evident across taxa and ocean ecosystems \r\n(Sections  3.4.3.1, 3.4.3.2), suggests that recent ocean warming \r\n(Section 3.2.2.1) should alter biodiversity at regional to global scales. \r\nSince previous assessments (Table 3.20), the most common evidence \r\nsupporting these expected changes is replacement of cold-adapted \r\nspecies by warm-adapted species within an ecosystem as waters warm \r\n(Worm and Lotze, 2021). Known as tropicalisation (Section 3.4.2.3), this \r\nphenomenon has been attributed to ocean warming (medium to high \r\nconfidence) in communities as diverse as kelp, invertebrates, plankton \r\nand fish (Burrows et al., 2019; Flanagan et al., 2019; Ajani et al., 2020; \r\nVillarino et al., 2020; Punzon et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2021)."


id: f41e4c69482ce1f96902d2a165dff140
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35919
content:
"Figure 3.16 |  Observed responses to climate change based on a systematic \r\nWeb of Science review of marine phenology studies exceeding 19 years in \r\nlength to update the assessment in WGII AR5 Chapter 30 (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2014). Error bars indicate 95% confidence limits (i.e., the extremely likely range).\r\n(a) Global data shows changes in seasonal cycles of biota that are attributed (at \r\nleast partly) to climate change (blue, n = 297 observations), and changes that are \r\ninconsistent with climate change (white, n = 116 observations). Each circle represents \r\nthe centre of a study area."


id: 4f300c88737d635472f3a500902d4211
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9898
content:
"(b) The proportion of phenological observations (showing means and extremely likely\r\nranges) that are attributed to climate change (i.e., generally showing earlier timing) by \r\ntaxonomic group."


id: 4343f92352bd8ac252e7aafdb29ceac6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7987
content:
"(c) Observed shifts in timing (days per decade, showing means and extremely likely\r\nranges), by taxonomic group, that are attributed to climate change. Negative shifts are \r\nearlier, positive shifts are later. (Details and additional plots are presented in 3.SM.3.3, \r\nFigure 3.SM.3 and Table 3.SM.1.)"


id: f6f80094cd4507d9dc2965c104fed725
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36363
content:
"Table 3.19 |  Assessment of phenological shifts by taxon based on time series from field observations spanning at least 19 years published over the past 25 years"


id: 6467ce3afc0e58a76ebc05412dea4772
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13364
content:
"At the community level, the magnitude and shape of projected future \r\nbiodiversity changes differ depending on which groups are considered \r\n(medium confidence) (Chaudhary et al., 2021). Molecular-based richness "


id: e6cdcdb72da17f042235884ddfcacfbd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33795
content:
"(Section  3.4.3.5; Mouw et  al., 2016; Cram et  al., 2018) than areas \r\ndominated by larger size classes (high confidence)."


id: c387a187c7335ed3459c6a5a8387201
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28334
content:
"Marine organism redistributions projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 \r\ninclude extirpations and range contractions in the tropics, strongly \r\ndecreasing tropical biodiversity, and range expansions at higher \r\nlatitudes, associated with increased diversity and homogenisation \r\nof marine communities (Figure  3.18b). Under continuing climate \r\nchange, the projected loss of biodiversity may ultimately threaten \r\nmarine ecosystem stability (medium confidence) (Albouy et al., 2020; \r\nNagelkerken et  al., 2020; Henson et  al., 2021), altering both the \r\nfunctioning and structure of marine ecosystems and thus affecting \r\nservice provisioning (medium confidence) (Section 3.5; Ibarbalz et al., \r\n2019; Righetti et al., 2019)."


id: 540fb9b0eae3d7dabb98ca55bcea7c84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10691
content:
"However, biodiversity observations remain sparse, and statistical and \r\nmodelling tools can provide conflicting diversity information (e.g., \r\nRighetti et  al., 2019; Dutkiewicz et  al., 2020) because correlative \r\napproaches assume that the modern-day relationship between \r\nmarine species distribution and environmental conditions remains \r\nthe same into the future, whereas mechanistic models permit \r\nmarine species to respond dynamically to changing environmental \r\nforcing. Moreover, existing global projections of future biodiversity \r\ndisproportionately focus on the effects sea surface temperature \r\n(Thomas et  al., 2012), typically overlooking other factors such \r\nas ocean acidification, deoxygenation and nutrient availability \r\n(Section 3.2.3), and often failing to account for natural adaptation \r\n(e.g., Section 3.3.4; see Box 3.1; Barton et al., 2016; Henson et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 738046fc7245c47fbf13f1f217008918
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15792
content:
"Global projections anticipate a likely future reorganisation of marine \r\nlife of variable magnitude, contingent on emission scenario (Beaugrand \r\net  al., 2015; Jones and Cheung, 2015; Barton et  al., 2016; Garcia \r\nMolinos et al., 2016; Nagelkerken et al., 2020; Henson et al., 2021). "


id: d77160cca7f4bef3b2cf3b68905ebc0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31419
content:
"60  years, abrupt ecosystem shifts have generally followed El Nino/\r\nSouthern Oscillation events of any strength, but some periods had \r\ngeographically limited ecological shifts (~0.25% of the global ocean \r\nin 1984-1987) and others more extensive shifts (14% of the global \r\nocean in 2012-2015) (medium confidence) (Figure 3.19b; Beaugrand \r\net al., 2019). Typically, interacting drivers, such as eutrophication and \r\noverharvest, reduce ecosystem resilience to climate extremes (e.g., \r\nMHWs, cyclones) or gradual warming, and hence promote ecosystem \r\nshifts (high confidence) (Figure 3.19a; Rocha et al., 2015; Biggs et al., \r\n2018; Babcock et al., 2019; Turner et al., 2020b; Bergstrom et al., 2021; \r\nCanadell and Jackson, 2021; Tait et al., 2021). Also, shifts in different \r\necosystems may be connected through common drivers or through \r\ncascading effects (medium confidence) (Rocha et al., 2018a)."


id: 90c49812c9cdf8c9f3e249e521ecb1a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20321
content:
"Recent MHWs (Section 3.2.2.1) have caused major ecosystem shifts \r\nand mass mortality in oceanic and coastal ecosystems, including \r\ncorals, kelp forests and seagrass meadows (Sections 3.4.2.1, 3.4.2.3, \r\n3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.6, 3.4.2.10; Cross-Chapter  Box  MOVING SPECIES in \r\nChapter 5; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in Chapter 2), with dramatic \r\ndeclines in species foundational for habitat formation or trophic flow, \r\nbiodiversity declines, and biogeographic shifts in fish stocks (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Table  3.15; Cross-Chapter  Box  MOVING SPECIES \r\nin Chapter  5; Canadell and Jackson, 2021). Three major bleaching \r\nepisodes on Australia's Great Barrier Reef in 5  years corresponded \r\nwith extreme temperatures in 2016, 2017 and 2020 (Pratchett et al., \r\n2021). Between 1981 and 2017, MHWs have increased more than 20-\r\nfold due to anthropogenic climate change (Section 3.2.2.1; WGI AR6 \r\nChapter 9; Laufkotter et al., 2020; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021), increasing "


id: d8c5f5e93b8c920a688ab171943ee78a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31617
content:
"Abrupt ecosystem shifts are associated with large-scale patterns \r\nof climate variability (Alheit et  al., 2019; Beaugrand et  al., 2019; \r\nLehodey et al., 2020), some of which are projected to intensify with \r\nclimate change (medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter  1; Wang \r\net al., 2017a; Collins et al., 2019a; Chen et al., 2021). Over the past "


id: 723ec6111b3748e35b7efe40ec45ecde
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15598
content:
"(a) Observed species richness for three historical periods. The observed latitudinal patterns in species richness are for a suite of taxonomic groups based on 48,661 marine species \r\n(Chaudhary et al., 2021)."


id: 48ba988edeab50bf567aa4c3387f3925
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8821
content:
"(b) Projected changes in species richness under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are calculated as differences by grid cell by 2100 relative to 2006. Latitudinal global median (5deg moving \r\naverage). (Based on Figure 1b,c in Garcia Molinos et al., 2016.) The projected latitudinal patterns in changes in species richness under climate change are based on a numerical \r\nmodel that includes species-specific information across a suite of taxonomic groups, based on 12,796 marine species (Garcia Molinos et al., 2016)."


id: d4689d8d53adb5f2eabab05d2469787f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30939
content:
"Marine birds and mammals are vulnerable to climate-induced loss of breeding and foraging habitats such as sea ice (Section 3.4.2.12), \r\nsandy beaches (Section 3.4.2.6), salt marshes (Section 3.4.2.5) and seagrass beds (high confidence) (Section 3.4.2.5; Sydeman et al., 2015; \r\nBindoff et al., 2019a; Ropert-Coudert et al., 2019; Von Holle et al., 2019; Albouy et al., 2020; Amano et al., 2020; Bestley et al., 2020; Grose \r\net al., 2020). With warming, shorebird population abundances decline in the tropics, likely due to heat stress and habitat loss, and increase \r\nat higher latitudes (Amano et al., 2020). Marine mammals dependent on sea ice habitat are particularly vulnerable to warming (medium \r\nconfidence) (Albouy et al., 2020; Bestley et al., 2020; Lefort et al., 2020), yet vulnerability can differ between populations. Ongoing sea ice "


id: b1bbf386ae52ca3999ed5179f2f02274
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25454
content:
"loss is decreasing some polar bear populations while others remain stable, likely related to past harvesting history, regional differences in \r\nsea ice phenology and ecosystem productivity (Hamilton and Derocher, 2019; Molnar et al., 2020). Nevertheless, even under an intermediate \r\nemission scenario RCP4.5, increasing ice-free periods will likely reduce both recruitment and adult survival across most polar bear \r\npopulations over the next four decades, threatening their existence (medium confidence) (see Figure Box 3.2.2; Molnar et al., 2020)."


id: 2c87ef226ccb300d92830890678b433d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4435
content:
"Figure  Box  3.2.2 |   Modelled risk timelines for demographic impacts on circumpolar polar bear subpopulations, and associated confidence \r\nassessments, due to extended fasting periods with loss of sea ice. Years of first impact on cub recruitment (yellow), adult male survival (blue) and adult female \r\nsurvival (red) are shown for the (left) RCP4.5 and (right) RCP8.5. (Data from Molnar et al., 2020)."


id: bdce014e7cb254430a975c5ebb675bae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27420
content:
"Increased emergence of infectious disease in mammals and birds is expected with ocean warming, due to new transmission pathways \r\nfrom changing species distributions, higher species densities caused by habitat loss and increased vulnerability due to environmental \r\nstress on individuals (limited evidence) (Sydeman et al., 2015; VanWormer et al., 2019; Sanderson and Alexander, 2020). Marine birds and \r\nmammals are likely to suffer from increased mortalities due to increasing frequencies of HABs, and of extreme weather, at sea, on sea ice, \r\nand in terrestrial breeding habitats (Broadwater et al., 2018; Gibble and Hoover, 2018; Ropert-Coudert et al., 2019; Grose et al., 2020). Also, \r\nclimate-change driven distributional shifts have strengthened interactions with other anthropogenic impacts, through, for example, \r\nincreasing risks of ship strikes and bycatch (medium confidence) (e.g., Hauser et al., 2018; Kruger et al., 2018; Record et al., 2019; Santora \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 10f8afd4acb1dcf5ed4579b199c8d69a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 144
content:
"Table 3.21 |  Summary of previous IPCC assessments of observed and projected abrupt ecosystem shifts and extreme events"


id: ec089f129f6f3bfadf4a1f8797744ac7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34633
content:
"the risk of abrupt ecosystem shifts (high confidence) (Figure  3.19a; \r\nCross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in Chapter 2; van der Bolt et al., 2018; \r\nGarrabou et al., 2021; Wernberg, 2021)."


id: 848c1cae200f2b9dc7376ab698b678f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18382
content:
"Since SROCC, more studies have assessed the time of emergence for \r\nclimate-induced drivers (Section  3.2.3) and the ecosystem attributes \r\nthrough which the impacts manifest. However, as in previous assessments \r\n(Table  3.22), the time of emergence for a given driver or ecosystem \r\nattribute depends on the reference period, the definition of the signal \r\nemergence threshold and the spatio-temporal scales considered (see \r\nBox 5.1 in SROCC; Kirtman et al., 2013; Bindoff et al., 2019a)."


id: e5bd0649f3f9d2853a26aaeac537b3ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33649
content:
"Anthropogenically driven changes in chlorophyll-a concentrations \r\nacross an ensemble of 30 ESMs are expected to exceed natural variability \r\nunder RCP8.5 by 2100 in ~65-80% of the global oceans, when the \r\nnatural variability is calculated using the ensemble's standard deviation \r\n(Schlunegger et al., 2020); however, if two standard deviations are used, \r\nthen significant trends in chlorophyll-a concentration are expected \r\nunder RCP8.5 across ~31% of the global oceans by 2100 (Dutkiewicz \r\net  al., 2019). In contrast, the anthropogenic signal in phytoplankton \r\ncommunity structure, which has a lower natural variability, will emerge \r\nunder RCP8.5 across 63% of the ocean by 2100 when two standard \r\ndeviations are used (limited evidence) (Dutkiewicz et al., 2019)."


id: f29c6f480a93190458b8b955ec0f01b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35703
content:
"Observed changes in biomass in the global ocean, beyond those for \r\nphytoplankton (Table 3.23), have not routinely been attributed to climate\u0002induced drivers, but rather to the compound effects of multiple drivers, \r\nespecially fishing (Christensen et al., 2014; Palomares et al., 2020). We \r\ntherefore do not assess observed changes in ocean biomass here."


id: 5a637662d1892b775c6cba3f67d459d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11733
content:
"(a) A conceptual representation of ecosystem resilience and regime shifts. Shift \r\nfrom Regime 1 to Regime 2 can be triggered by either a large shock (i.e., an abrupt \r\nenvironmental transition) or gradual internal or external change that erodes the dominant \r\nbalancing feedbacks, reducing ecosystem resilience (indicated by the shallower dotted line, \r\nrelative to the deeper 'valley' reflecting higher resilience). (Based on Biggs et al., 2018)."


id: 8367777f1f8b3f9872a52d5ccf079e73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18203
content:
"Based on an ensemble of CMIP5 ESMs, SROCC projected declines in \r\nglobal zooplankton biomass by 2100 dependent on emission scenario \r\n(low confidence) (Table 3.23). The new CMIP6 ESM ensemble projects \r\na decline in global zooplankton biomass by -3.9  +-  8.2% (very \r\nlikely range) and -9.0  +-  8.9% in the period 2081-2100 relative to \r\n1995-2014 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively (Figure 3.21d; \r\nKwiatkowski et  al., 2020), thus reinforcing the SROCC assessment \r\nalbeit with greater inter-model uncertainties."


id: 2464c189446cceefa31b4c229d94ae36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3172
content:
"(b) The sum of the magnitude and extent of the abrupt community shifts that has been \r\nestimated at each geographic cell in the global ocean during 1960-2014, calculated as \r\nthe ratio of the amplitude of the change in a particular year to the average magnitude \r\nof the change over the entire time series (thus, is dimensionless). (Based on Beaugrand \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 73c1bed322a40c8d1538bde7b527194c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15828
content:
"The time of emergence of climate impacts on ecosystems will be \r\nmodulated jointly by species-specific adaptation potential (Section 3.3.4; \r\nJones and Cheung, 2018; Collins et al., 2020; Gamliel et al., 2020; Miller \r\net al., 2020a), speed of range shifts and spatial reorganisation (high \r\nconfidence) (Sections  3.3, 3.4.2, 3.4.3). These ecosystem responses \r\ncomplicate projections of the time of emergence of environmental \r\nproperties that impact biogeochemical cycling (Schlunegger et  al., \r\n2019; Schlunegger et  al., 2020; Wrightson and Tagliabue, 2020), \r\necosystem structure and biodiversity (Figure 3.20a,c; Dutkiewicz et al., \r\n2019; Trisos et al., 2020), and higher trophic levels, including fisheries \r\ntargets (Cheung and Frolicher, 2020). Better accounting for multiple \r\ninteracting factors in ESMs (see Box 3.1) will provide insight into how \r\nmarine ecosystems will respond to future climate (high confidence)."


id: 24fb1737fb766656b844510fc4c96a3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3261
content:
"Using an ensemble of global-scale marine ecosystem and fisheries \r\nmodels (Fish-MIP) (Tittensor et  al., 2018) with the CMIP5 ESM \r\nensemble, SROCC concludes that projected ocean warming and \r\ndecreased phytoplankton production and biomass will reduce global \r\nmarine animal biomass during the 21st century (medium confidence). \r\nThe simulated declines (with very likely range) are -3.5 +- 4.8% and \r\n-14.0  +-  14.6% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2080-\r\n2099 relative to 1995-2014 (SROCC Section  5.2.3; Bindoff et  al., \r\n2019a; Lotze et al., 2019)6\r\n. Updated Fish-MIP simulations with CMIP6 \r\n(Figure 3.21g,h,i) confirm the projected decline in total marine animal \r\nbiomass in the 21st  century (Tittensor et  al., 2021). The simulated "


id: f1d5dd56b9fd87062de397f9ea788d46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35563
content:
"A tipping point is a threshold beyond which an abrupt or rapid change in a system occurs. Tipping points that have already been reached in \r\nocean systems include the melting of sea ice in the Arctic, thermal bleaching of tropical coral reefs and the loss of kelp forests. Human-induced \r\nclimate change will continue to force ecosystems into abrupt and often irreversible change, without strong mitigation and adaptation action."


id: 33fa9a12dcb8481af24f72be2655353
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5595
content:
"A gradual change in water temperature or oxygen concentration can lead to a fundamental shift in the structure and/\r\nor composition of an ecosystem when a tipping point is exceeded. For example, all species have upper temperature \r\nlimits below which they can thrive. In the tropics, prolonged warm temperatures can cause fatal 'bleaching' of \r\ntropical corals, leading reef ecosystems to degrade and become dominated by algae. In temperate regions, MHWs \r\ncan kill or reduce the growth of kelp, threatening the other species that depend on the tall, canopy-forming marine \r\nplants for habitat. In the Arctic, rising temperatures are melting sea ice and reducing the available habitat for \r\ncommunities of ice-dependent species."


id: 6496e883620c57f89ac310a5877b8911
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13392
content:
"Once a tipping point is passed, the effects can be long-lasting and/or irreversible over time scales of decades or \r\nlonger. An ecosystem or a population can remain in the new state, even if the driver of the change returns to \r\nprevious levels. For example, once a coral reef has been affected by bleaching, it can take decades for corals to "


id: fd899e7c2f4003baddf49e5d6726a944
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37410
content:
"grow back, even if temperatures remain below the bleaching threshold. Crossing a tipping point can cause entire \r\npopulations to collapse, causing local extinctions."


id: aafe7aee8d68cc9c1bbf76c860bf8680
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24424
content:
"Tipping points are widespread across oceanic provinces and their ecosystems for climate variables like water \r\ntemperature, oxygen concentration and acidification. Evidence suggests that ocean tipping points are being \r\nsurpassed more frequently as the climate changes; scientists have estimated that abrupt shifts in communities of \r\nmarine species occurred over 14% of the ocean in 2015, up from 0.25% of the ocean in the 1980s. Other human \r\nstressors to the ocean, including habitat destruction, overfishing, pollution and the spread of diseases, combine \r\nwith climate change to push marine systems beyond tipping points. As an example, nutrient pollution from land \r\ntogether with climate change can lead to low-oxygen coastal areas referred to as 'dead zones'."


id: 320455259f2f1c91af93f8a3184e1a84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5283
content:
"Human communities can also experience tipping points that alter people's relationships with marine ecosystem \r\nservices. Indigenous Peoples and local communities may be forced to move from a particular location due to SLR, \r\nerosion or loss of marine resources. Current activities that help sustain Indigenous Peoples and their cultures may \r\nno longer be possible in the coming decades, and traditional diets or territories may have to be abandoned. These \r\ntipping points have implications for physical and mental health of marine-dependent human communities."


id: 4be1a1191e5becad08ac6745050482e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9357
content:
"Adaptation solutions to the effects of ecological tipping points are rarely able to reverse their environmental \r\nimpacts, and instead often require human communities to transform their livelihoods in different ways. Examples \r\ninclude diversifying income by shifting from fishing to tourism and relocating communities threatened by flooding \r\nto other areas to continue their livelihoods. Tipping points are being passed already in coral reefs and polar systems, \r\nand more will probably be reached in the near future given climate-change projections. Nevertheless, the chances \r\nof moving beyond additional tipping points in the future will be minimised if we reduce greenhouse gas emissions \r\nand we also act to limit other human impacts on the ocean, such as overfishing and nutrient pollution."


id: 3284de665894706d9391546a92fb29aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5364
content:
"(a) Simulated spatial variation in the time of exposure of marine species to unprecedented temperatures under RCP8.5. Time of exposure is quantified as the median year after which \r\nlocal species are projected to encounter temperatures warmer than the historical maximum within their full geographic range for a period of at least 5 years. This estimate is based on \r\n22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, and is drawn from data presented by Trisos et al. (2020). Only regions that have times of emergence by 2100 are shown.\r\n(b) The distribution in the time of exposure to unprecedented temperatures within marine assemblages (Trisos et al., 2020) under RCP8.5 in marine protected areas (in turquoise) \r\nand in non-marine protected areas (in purple). Values were calculated after regridding to equal-area 0.5deg hexagons."


id: f12af06849f3e7e73058bc97c177c6ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35445
content:
"(c) Time of emergence for phytoplankton community-structure changes (based on a proxy-ecosystem-model reflectance at 500 nm) under RCP8.5. Only regions with statistically \r\nsignificant (p < 0.05) trends that are presently largely ice free and have times of emergence by 2100 are shown. (Based on the results of one numerical model from Dutkiewicz et al., 2019).\r\n(d) The distribution in the time of emergence for changes in phytoplankton community structure (same proxy as in panel c) (Dutkiewicz et al., 2019) under RCP8.5 in marine \r\nprotected areas (in turquoise) and in non-marine protected areas (in purple). Values were calculated after regridding to equal-area 0.5deg hexagons."


id: caf6a400d641122e3367f6187cadbf25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29497
content:
"et al., 2021). The inter-model uncertainty associated with CMIP6 NPP \r\nprojections is larger than in CMIP5, and it is consistently larger than \r\nthe scenario uncertainty. For each SSP across the CMIP6 ensemble, \r\nindividual models project both increases and decreases in global \r\nprimary production, reflecting a diverse suite of bottom-up and top\u0002down ecological processes, which are variously parameterised across \r\nmodels (Laufkotter et  al., 2015; Bindoff et  al., 2019a). Furthermore, \r\naccurate simulation of many of the biogeochemical tracers upon which \r\nNPP depends (e.g., the distribution of iron; Tagliabue et  al., 2016; \r\nBindoff et al., 2019a) remains a significant and ongoing challenge to \r\nESMs (high confidence) (Seferian et al., 2020)."


id: 2006a9d0b7f57c1fba23029b8c3769b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2480
content:
"Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, where some increased total seafloor \r\nbiomass is projected (Yool et al., 2013). Updated simulations with the \r\nsame benthic biomass model (Kelly-Gerreyn et al., 2014) forced with \r\nthe CMIP6 ESM UKESM-1 project declines in total seafloor biomass of \r\n-9.8 and -13.0% by 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 for SSP1-2.6 \r\nand SSP5-8.5, respectively (Figure 3.21j,k,l). These projected changes \r\nin benthic biomass are based on limited evidence. Development of \r\nensemble projections forced with a range of ESMs and a benthic \r\nmodel that considers the ecological roles of temperature (Hunt and \r\nRoy, 2006; Reuman et  al., 2014), oxygen (Mosch et  al., 2012) and \r\nocean acidification (Andersson et al., 2011) will provide opportunities \r\nto better quantify uncertainty in projected declines in total seafloor \r\nbiomass under climate change."


id: cedb17fcca1c799d8c47f7da906e280e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30080
content:
"Overall, ocean warming and decreased phytoplankton production \r\nand biomass will drive a global decline in biomass for zooplankton \r\n(low confidence), marine animals (medium confidence) and seafloor \r\nbenthos (low confidence), with regional differences in the direction \r\nand magnitude of changes (high confidence). There is increasing \r\nevidence that responses will amplify throughout the food web and \r\nat ocean depths, with relatively modest changes in surface primary \r\nproducers translating into substantial changes at higher trophic levels \r\nand for deep-water benthic communities (medium confidence)."


id: a7dbaf40541db13effae3bb4805f361a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23919
content:
"Across 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 ESM ensembles, global mean NPP is \r\nprojected to decline by 2080-2099 relative to 2006-2015, under all \r\nRCPs and SSPs (Kwiatkowski et al., 2020). However, under comparable \r\nradiative forcing, the CMIP6 multi-model mean projections of primary \r\nproduction declines (mean  +-  SD: -0.56  +-  4.12% under SSP1-2.6, \r\nand -3.00 +- 9.10% under SSP5-8.5) are less than those of previous \r\nCMIP5 models (3.42 +- 2.47% under RCP2.6, and 8.54 +- 5.88% under \r\nRCP8.5) (WGI AR6 Section 5.4.4.2; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020; Canadell "


id: 6b653a1202dc3c6d035fd41de3571a81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14514
content:
"Data on export flux from the upper ocean are limited either in coverage \r\nand consistency (ship-board sampling) or duration (sediment traps), \r\nand are subject to considerable spatial variability (as shown in \r\nsatellite observations (Boyd et al., 2019). As a result, trends are weak, \r\ninconsistent and often not statistically significant (Lomas et al., 2010; "


id: aeccc7917887ea6d98f5f2a54f5e955e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25036
content:
"Cael et al., 2017; Muller-Karger et al., 2019; Xie et al., 2019). Deep\u0002ocean fluxes are similarly equivocal (Smith et al., 2018; Fischer et al., \r\n2019; Fischer et al., 2020). In coming years, an increasing number of \r\nArgo floats equipped with bio-optical sensors should help improve \r\nestimates of particle flux spatio-temporal variability (e.g., Dall'Olmo \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 51e7c6ec75a2622f6c18b6af98ec0831
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10346
content:
"SROCC and WGI AR6 reported global declines in POC export flux, from \r\n-8.9 to -15.8% by 2100 relative to 2000 under RCP8.5 in CMIP5 \r\nmodels, and -2.5 to -21.5% (median value: -14%) between 1900 \r\nand 2100 under SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 models (Table  3.24; WGI AR6 \r\n5.4.4.2; Bindoff et al., 2019a; Canadell et al., 2021). In CMIP5 model \r\nruns, the decrease in the sinking flux of organic matter from the upper \r\nocean into the ocean interior was strongly related to the changes in "


id: 2279e1dd520d3acd117f4567bb6c8024
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2871
content:
"Table 3.24 |  Summary of previous IPCC assessments of ocean primary production and carbon export flux"


id: ccc05434eda9f7549a225f6dd7114e33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29754
content:
"stratification that reduce net nutrient supply (Fu et al., 2016; Bindoff \r\net  al., 2019a), especially in tropical regions, and the projections \r\nfor global export production changes are reported with medium \r\nconfidence. Increasing model complexity with more widespread \r\nrepresentation of ocean biogeochemical processes between CMIP5 \r\nand CMIP6, and inclusion of more than one or two classes of phyto\u0002and zooplankton, will provide opportunities to improve assessments \r\nof how climate-induced drivers affect different components of \r\nbiological carbon pump in the epipelagic ocean, as well as changes in \r\nthe efficiency and magnitude of carbon export in the deep ocean (high \r\nconfidence) (see Box 3.3; Le Quere et al., 2016; Seferian et al., 2020; \r\nWright et al., 2021)."


id: 79b8c5ebd7b7d0c8214613e292f9adfe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16718
content:
"Scenarios limiting warming to the 1.5degC and 2degC limits in the Paris \r\nAgreement can involve temporarily exceeding those warming levels \r\nbefore declining again (WGI AR6 Section 4.6.2.1; Lee et al., 2021). The \r\neffect of such 'overshoot' on marine and coastal ecosystems depends \r\non the reversibility of both the response of climate-induced drivers \r\nand the response of organisms and ecosystems to the climate impact\u0002"


id: 6e04fa431081c8629d57f9d51cb2cb13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14921
content:
"Chemosynthetic ecosystems could be particularly prone to oxygen decline (low to medium confidence). Projected OMZ expansion in the \r\nvicinity of seep communities could favour sulphide-tolerant species, as suggested from fossil records (Moffitt et al., 2015), but this will \r\nexclude large symbiont-bearing foundation species of methane-seep ecosystems (Fischer et al., 2012; Sweetman et al., 2017). Projected \r\nwarming, or shifts in warm-current circulation along continental margins, could enhance dissociation of buried methane hydrates (Phrampus \r\nand Hornbach, 2012; Phrampus et al., 2014), either increasing anaerobic methane oxidation (Boetius and Wenzhofer, 2013), which benefits \r\nseep communities, or increasing gas fluxes, which would decrease anaerobic methane oxidation rates and exclude chemosynthetic fauna. "


id: 70bdb3996473786efa3d9cde8b69ed76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15361
content:
"Environmental niche models (FAO, 2019; Morato et  al., 2020; Puerta et  al., 2020) project that under RCP8.5, >50% of present-day \r\nscleractinian habitats in the North Atlantic Ocean will become unsuitable by 2100, with greater impacts on D. pertusum than on D. \r\ndianthus or M. oculata. For gorgonians, corresponding habitat loss is likely >80%. Much less is known about the environmental niches of \r\ndeep-sea sponges, preventing a similar assessment (Kazanidis et al., 2019; Puerta et al., 2020)."


id: 15bfc3f3f1ad22295dc6897e14a20018
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 943
content:
"Figure Box 3.3.1 |  The combination of climate-induced drivers in different deep-ocean ecosystems. (Key physical and biological drivers of change in the \r\ndeep-sea and benthic habitats with specific vulnerabilities are discussed in Section 3.4.3.3.)"


id: a3adc1f4a5a0ce15ca83a4088e9c1b71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23312
content:
"This section  assesses the impacts of climate change on ecosystem \r\nservices (Table 3.25; Chapter 1) and the outcomes on social-ecological \r\nsystems, building on previous assessments (Table 3.26). Section 3.5.2 \r\nassesses how changes in biodiversity influence ecosystem services. \r\nThen Sections  3.5.3 and 3.5.4 assess provisioning services (food \r\nand non-food), Section  3.5.5 assesses supporting and regulating \r\nservices, and Section  3.5.6, cultural services. Where evidence exists, \r\nthe section evaluates how the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of \r\nsocial-ecological systems govern the manifestation of impacts on each \r\necosystem service."


id: aac845a7aec22192c41c6ec2fc8bf0e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24393
content:
"Reducing risk to ecosystem functions and services that depend on \r\nbiodiversity requires an integrated approach that acknowledges \r\nthe close linkages between the climate and biodiversity crises and \r\ncommon governance challenges (Portner et  al., 2021b). Climate\u0002focused solutions that employ nature-based solutions (NbS), \r\ntechnological interventions and socio-institutional interventions \r\n(Section 3.6.2) can also safeguard biodiversity (Portner et al., 2021b), \r\nwhich in turn will help ocean and coastal ecosystems adapt to climate \r\nimpacts as well as help sustain the services they provide to people \r\n(Sections 3.5.3-3.5.6)."


id: 5cd373987d6a3106a1d90fdaddf32622
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12119
content:
"Non-indigenous marine species are major agents of ocean and coastal \r\nbiodiversity change, and climate and non-climate drivers interact to \r\nsupport their movement and success (high confidence) (Iacarella \r\net  al., 2020). At times, non-indigenous species act invasively and \r\noutcompete indigenous species, causing regional biodiversity shifts \r\nand altering ecosystem function, as seen in the Mediterranean region \r\n(high confidence) (e.g., Mannino et al., 2017; Bianchi et al., 2019; Hall\u0002Spencer and Harvey, 2019; Verdura et al., 2019; Garcia-Gomez et al., \r\n2020; Dimitriadis et  al., 2021). Warming-related range expansions "


id: 5903254e284549a91bf9ffd33d61d3b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11498
content:
"et al., 2020). Catch composition is changing in many locations fished \r\nby smaller-scale, less-mobile commercial, artisanal and recreational \r\nfisheries (high confidence) (Booth et al., 2018; Townhill et al., 2019; \r\nYoung et  al., 2019b; Robinson et  al., 2020; Champion et  al., 2021). \r\nLimited exceptions have been noted, with wild harvests in some \r\nplaces remaining stable or increasing (e.g., Arreguin-Sanchez, 2019; \r\nRobinson et al., 2019b; Kainge et al., 2020). Where possible, fishers are \r\nmaintaining harvests by broadening catch diversity, traveling poleward \r\nand changing gear and strategies (high confidence) (Section 3.6.3.1.2; \r\nBarange et  al., 2018; Dubik et  al., 2019; Townhill et  al., 2019). \r\nFisheries and aquaculture adaptations, including management, are \r\ncomprehensively assessed in Sections 3.6.3.1.2, 5.8.4 and 5.9.4."


id: be901edd7940f62d957ef9c6b1beacc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27535
content:
"Ocean and coastal fauna are moving towards higher latitudes globally \r\ndue to warming (high confidence) (Section  3.4.3.1; Table  3.26), \r\nchallenging fishers and fisheries management (high confidence) as \r\nfishers also move poleward and diversify harvests (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Sections  3.4.3.3.3, 5.8.4; Table  3.26; Leitao et  al., \r\n2018; Liang et al., 2018; Ottosen et al., 2018; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018; \r\nPinsky et al., 2018; Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2019; Free et al., 2019; \r\nGianelli et  al., 2019; Scott et  al., 2019; Smith et  al., 2019; Gervais \r\net al., 2021). Model hindcasts have identified temperature-associated \r\nfisheries reductions worldwide (Free et  al., 2019), and they have \r\nimplicated overfishing as the primary non-climate driver increasing \r\nfishery vulnerability (Section  5.8.4; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018; Das "


id: c881e775f1741a7bf65d7f601d4f677d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29111
content:
"Table 3.26 |  Conclusions from previous IPCC assessments about observed and projected climate impacts on ocean and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services"


id: dce7653fbff60f7c7ccdac55041cdfab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32252
content:
"Ocean acidification and deoxygenation caused by climate change \r\nare thought to influence fishing and aquaculture harvests, but \r\nlimited evidence prevents assessing their present global impact on \r\nharvests. Substantial economic losses in the North American Pacific \r\nCoast shellfish aquaculture industry in the 2000s assessed in SROCC \r\n(Bindoff et  al., 2019a) and WGII AR5 (Portner et  al., 2014) remain \r\nthe clearest example of human harm from ocean acidification. \r\nTechnology-based adaptations (Section  3.6.3) have minimised \r\naquaculture losses from ocean acidification, including early-warning \r\nsystems to guide hatchery operations and culturing resilient shellfish "


id: 4f767044bec98f46c9f27563c7991c1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9934
content:
"Ocean and coastal organisms will continue moving poleward under \r\nRCP8.5 (high confidence) (Section 3.4.3.1.3; Figure 3.18), and this is \r\nexpected to decrease fisheries harvests in low latitudes and alter species \r\ncomposition and abundance in higher latitudes (high confidence) \r\n(Table 3.26; Figure 3.23; Asch et al., 2018; Morley et al., 2018; Tai et al., \r\n2019; Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2020; Shelton et al., 2021). Species \r\nthat succeed in new ranges or conditions may offer opportunities to \r\ndiversify regional fisheries or aquaculture (Sections  3.6.3.1.2, 5.8.4, \r\n5.9.4; Bindoff et  al., 2019a), or they may outcompete indigenous \r\nspecies and act as invasive species (Sections 3.4.2.10, 3.5.2)."


id: 1d3dc4fcb74f1508989ef8fe40f88e92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2040
content:
"Ocean and coastal regulating services are detailed in Table 3.25. The \r\neconomic value of all regulating ecosystem services in 2015 was \r\nestimated at 29.1 trillion USD, with water- and climate-regulating \r\nservices contributing the most (Balasubramanian, 2019)."


id: 7a4da3ee14334c05c8139d4fcf45a485
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16809
content:
"Climate regulation by the ocean depends on physical and biogeochemical \r\nprocesses (Sections 3.2-3.4) that create, move, and store heat, water \r\nvapour and other climate-active compounds including CO2, methane \r\nand dimethyl sulphide (WGI AR6 Chapter 6; Szopa et al., 2021). Over \r\nthe 21st century, ocean heat and CO2 uptake will continue (WGI AR6 \r\nSPMB4.1, B5.1; IPCC, 2021b) and sea ice loss from warming will allow \r\nsome additional CO2 uptake (Armstrong et  al., 2019), but the ocean \r\nwill take up a smaller fraction of CO2 emissions as atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentrations rise (high confidence) (Table 3.26; WGI AR6 SPM B4.1; \r\nIPCC, 2021b)."


id: 9ba9ba75918da0b85b6418975ee2af0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22046
content:
"There is very limited evidence on climate-driven air-quality changes in \r\nthe coastal zone. Increased humidity decreases the lifetime of ozone \r\nand increases particulate matter and indoor mould levels (USGCRP, \r\n2016), potentially affecting near-shore air quality. However, coastal\u0002zone air pollution can enhance coastal-climate impacts by increasing \r\nthe risk of acid rain, which worsens ocean acidification (nitrogen oxides, \r\nsulphur oxides and mercury; Doney, 2010; Northcott et al., 2019)."


id: 1aa5970754063861e522872921180527
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1670
content:
"The salinities of many estuaries, deltas, coastal freshwater aquifers \r\nand soils around the world are increasing, and this decrease in water \r\nquality is endangering human health and agricultural yields (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Section  3.4.2.4; Table  3.26; Bindoff et  al., 2019a; \r\nBouderbala, 2019; Rahman et  al., 2019; Naser et  al., 2020; Rakib "


id: 9461394ad9f3d9e1c662e20a50860b37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20854
content:
"coastal ecosystem health (high confidence) (Section  4.2.6.1; Cross\u0002Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2; Bindoff et al., 2019a)."


id: 5958ad04b7f45dcd845fbb6de7449969
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11545
content:
"ecosystem changes, which challenges development of projections \r\n(Cohen et al., 2018; Burge and Hershberger, 2020)."


id: 53d48bd5257226ed7a442a1877c83e40
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10657
content:
"Table Box 3.4.1 |  Estimates of organic carbon storage and burial rates in mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadowsa"


id: 34de52e7191678483c8621f8521a2063
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5725
content:
"(a) Estimates are the mean +- 95% confidence interval, where available (indicating the extremely likely range) and range. Carbon stocks for mangroves \r\ninclude above- and below-ground storage up to 3 m depth (sampling period 2007-2017). The estimates for salt-marsh and seagrass stocks are soil \r\nstocks up to 1 m depth (observations spanning 1983-2016 for salt marshes and until 2016 for seagrass meadows). Date ranges for the burial rates are: \r\n1989-2020, 1975-2020 and 1956-2016 for mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows, respectively."


id: 23be327169175a9830874f4c9d6958c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3072
content:
"Table Box 3.4.2 |  Examples of vegetated blue carbon ecosystem carbon-storage gains and losses in response to climate-induced drivers, and key actions contributing \r\nto maintained and/or increased carbon storagea"


id: 80311de49df39d94ae1f8ad0f7d811a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17699
content:
"(a) '+C' indicates potential positive effects on blue carbon stocks, '-C' indicates potential negative effects, '0' indicates no effects and 'C' indicates \r\npositive potential or negative effects. Effects on carbon stocks are from Section 3.4.2.5, Macreadie et al. (2019), Lovelock and Reef (2020) and Wang et al. \r\n(2020). Key actions to sustain blue carbon storage are from Duarte et al. (2020) and Wedding et al. (2021)."


id: ad426623fb3f5519b0510c538f33ee29
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24799
content:
"to October 2018; Scanlon, 2019), and lost recreational spending from \r\nloss of boat-ramp access (a 3  million USD economic loss from June \r\nto September 2018; Alvarez et al., 2019). In Cornwall, England, HABs \r\nfrom 2009 to 2016 disrupted residents' sense of place, identity and \r\nwell-being by interrupting recreational and economic activities, and \r\nby creating feelings of uncertainty and unease around the safety or \r\ndependability of future ocean-related activities (Willis et  al., 2018). \r\nIncreasingly abundant Sargassum spp. floating macroalgae from the \r\ncentral Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, whose proliferation has been \r\nattributed to high sea surface temperatures and nutrient enrichment \r\n(Wang et al., 2019a), has substantially disrupted beach tourism in the \r\nCaribbean and Mexico and imposes millions of dollars of clean-up costs \r\nannually on affected beaches (Milledge and Harvey, 2016)."


id: 3b3fa44754d763a1d83830e96dff5f9a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6677
content:
"Disruptions in ocean and coastal ecosystem services partly attributable \r\nto climate change have also caused economic losses (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Water-quality deterioration over 24  years in a \r\ntemperate bay in the USA due to nutrient enrichment and warming \r\ncaused 0.08-0.67  million USD per decade in lost recreational \r\nshellfish revenues (Luk et  al., 2019). In southwestern Florida, where \r\nnutrient enrichment, lake hydrology, and rainfall conditions control \r\ncyanobacterial HAB formation (Havens et al., 2019), toxic HAB events \r\ndeterred visitors and recreation, leading to lodging and restaurant \r\nrevenue losses (Bechard, 2020), decreased domestic and international \r\narrivals and overall visitor spending (a 99 million USD loss from August "


id: f1dbedcaba8d2a136ef7bcfd56bf7441
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35569
content:
"Figure 3.22 |  Observed global influence of climate-induced drivers on ecosystem services. Symbols show whether the observed impact of the climate-induced drivers \r\non a group of ecosystem services is positive (beneficial), negative (detrimental) or mixed (usually resulting from location, the presence of interacting drivers or changing effects \r\nover time). The 'observed impact' indicates the total effect of all climate-induced drivers on a specific ecosystem service, using expert judgement based on summary statements \r\nthroughout Section 3.5. Tick marks represent the presence of co-occurring drivers non-climate drivers that affect the service. No assessment indicates that not enough evidence is \r\navailable to assess the direction of impact."


id: f4d079b6e626420d7e65c8e256e56c2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36022
content:
"This section builds on the SROCC assessment of the portfolio \r\nof available solutions, their applicability and their effectiveness \r\nin reducing climate-change-induced risks to ocean and coastal \r\necosystems. Section  3.6.2 assesses the set of planned adaptation \r\nmeasures. Section  3.6.3 assesses implementation of adaptation \r\nsolutions and the enablers, barriers and limitations that affect their \r\nfeasibility. Section  3.6.4 evaluates the contribution of planned \r\nadaptation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other \r\npolicy-relevant frameworks, and Section 3.6.5 synthesises emerging \r\nevidence about best practices."


id: 8a2d76ae64f6680a2d55200a8ae5f843
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19269
content:
"Adaptation in ocean and coastal ecosystems continues to be informed \r\nprimarily by theory, as there is still limited evidence about implemented \r\nsolutions (high agreement) (Seddon et  al., 2020) and their success \r\nacross regions, especially in low-income nations (Chausson et  al., \r\n2020). Adapting to climate change depends on society's ability and \r\nwillingness to anticipate the change, recognise its effects, plan to \r\naccommodate its consequences (Ling and Hobday, 2019; Wilson et al., \r\n2020b) and implement a coordinated portfolio of informed solutions. \r\nHere, the complete portfolio of adaptation solutions is assessed using \r\nthe taxonomy of Abram et al. (2019): (1) socio-institutional adaptation, \r\n(2) built infrastructure and technology, and (3) marine and coastal \r\nnature-based solutions (NbS) (Figure 3.23)."


id: 22d35d5313c36f5348a393e97d729c0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2930
content:
"The global ocean underpins human well-being through the provision of resources that directly and indirectly feed and employ many millions \r\nof people. In many regions, climate change is degrading ocean health and altering stocks of marine resources. Together with over-harvesting, \r\nclimate change is threatening the future of the sustenance provided to Indigenous Peoples, the livelihoods of artisanal fisheries, and \r\nmarine-based industries including tourism, shipping and transportation."


id: f95d0649ec57833e4767062ab03fb786
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36743
content:
"The ocean is the lifeblood of the planet. In addition to regulating planetary cycles of carbon, water and heat, \r\nthe ocean and its vast resources support human livelihoods, cultural practices, jobs and industries. The impacts \r\nof climate change on the ocean can influence human activities and employment by altering resource availability, \r\nspreading pathogens, flooding shorelines and degrading ocean ecosystems. Fishing and mariculture are highly \r\nexposed to change. The global ocean and inland waters together provide more than 3.3 billion people at least \r\n20% of the protein they eat and provide livelihoods for 60 million people. Changes in the nutritional quality or \r\nabundance of food from the oceans could influence billions of people."


id: 24f0a8462daa6832cd81c2afe06b25fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3254
content:
"Substantial economic losses for fisheries resulting from recent climate-driven harmful algal blooms and marine \r\npathogen outbreaks have been recorded in Asia, North America and South America. A 2016 event in Chile caused \r\nan estimated loss of 800 million USD in the farmed-salmon industry and led to regional government protests. The \r\nrecent closure of the Dungeness crab and razor clam fishery in the USA due to a climate-driven algal bloom harmed \r\n84% of surveyed residents from 16 California coastal communities. Fishers and service industries that support \r\ncommercial and recreational fishing experienced the most substantial economic losses, and fishers were the least \r\nable to recover their losses. This same event also disrupted subsistence and recreational fishing for razor clams, \r\nimportant activities for Indigenous Peoples and local communities in the Pacific Northwest of the USA."


id: 5e75f4982740a57d5e95a838d9faf36e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12398
content:
"Other goods from the ocean, including non-food products like dietary supplements, food preservatives, pharmaceuticals, \r\nbiofuels, sponges and cosmetic products, as well as luxury products like jewellery coral, cultured pearls and aquarium \r\nspecies, will change in abundance or quality due to climate change. For instance, ocean warming is endangering the \r\n'candlefish' ooligan (Thaleichthys pacificus), whose oil is a traditional food source and medicine of Indigenous Peoples \r\nof the Pacific Northwest of North America. Declines in tourism and real estate values, associated with climate-driven \r\nharmful algal blooms, have also been recorded in the USA, France and England."


id: b4842ae7420ca134b1247dd55893117e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25934
content:
"Small-scale fisheries livelihoods and jobs are the most vulnerable to climate-driven changes in marine resources and \r\necosystem services. The abundance and composition of their harvest depend on suitable environmental conditions and \r\non IKLK developed over generations. Large-scale fisheries, though still vulnerable, are more able to adapt to climate \r\nchange due to greater mobility and greater resources for changing technologies. These fisheries are already adapting \r\nby broadening catch diversity, increasing their mobility to follow shifting species, and changing gear, technology and \r\nstrategies. Adaptation in large-scale fisheries, however, is at times constrained by regulations and governance challenges."


id: dd30e2eacddb7d713354d079163eea7b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32300
content:
"Jobs, industries and livelihoods which depend on particular species or are tied to the coast can also be at risk from \r\nclimate change. Species-dependent livelihoods (e.g., a lobster fishery or oyster farm) are vulnerable due to a lack \r\nof substitutes if the fished species are declining, biodiversity is reduced, or mariculture is threatened by climate \r\nchange or ocean acidification. Coastal activities and industries ranging from fishing (e.g., gleaning on a tidal flat) \r\nto tourism to shipping and transportation are also vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate-change impacts on \r\nthe coastal environment. The ability of coastal systems to protect the shoreline will decline due to sea level rise and \r\nsimultaneous degradation of nearshore systems, including coral reefs, kelp forests and coastal wetlands."


id: a46e3bdc63969c7d739352c9cf8df0e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23429
content:
"A key adaptation solution is improving access to credit and insurance in order to buffer against variability in resource \r\naccess and abundance. Further actions that decrease social and institutional vulnerability are also important, such as \r\ninclusive decision-making processes, access to resources and land for Indigenous Peoples, and participatory approaches \r\nin management. For the fishing industry, international fisheries agreements and investing in sustainable mariculture \r\nand fisheries reforms is often recommended. Immediate adaptations to other challenges, such as harmful algal blooms, \r\nfrequently include fishing-area closures; these can be informed by early-warning forecasts, public communications; and \r\neducation. These types of adaptations are more effective when built on trusted relationships and effective coordination \r\namong involved parties, and are inclusive of the diversity of actors in a coastal community."


id: b281c026c7c63b50248592c45b168da0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25601
content:
"Table 3.27 |  Conclusions from previous IPCC assessments about implemented adaptation, enablers and limits, and contribution to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)"


id: 30dce17a781218e81e5e931716b87cc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5109
content:
"Figure 3.23 |  Adaptation solutions for ocean and coastal ecosystems that address climate-change risk in different ocean ecosystems, communities and \r\neconomic sectors. Box colour indicates confidence in the solution's potential to reduce mid-term risks (based on the amount of evidence and agreement supporting the solutions; \r\nsee SM3.5.1 for full assessment). The feasibility and effectiveness of each solution (low, medium or high) indicates its ability to support ecosystems and societies as they adapt to \r\nclimate change impacts, based on Table 3.SM.3."


id: 8eb9643ef2e859fd09fc1dbffce23f98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19981
content:
"Table 3.28 |  Assessment of socio-institutional adaptation solutions to reduce mid-term climate impacts in oceans and coastal ecosystemsa"


id: a02cdfbad2f45eafa51085a27f79662e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22734
content:
"Table 3.29 |  Assessment of built infrastructure and technology solutions to reduce mid-term climate impacts in oceans and coastal ecosystemsa"


id: 9acc1dfb68f4b6a68c0dc860420454bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21885
content:
"Singh et al., 2019b; Soper et al., 2019). Marine NbS are cost-effective, \r\ncan generate social, economic and cultural co-benefits, and can \r\ncontribute to the conservation of biodiversity in the near- to mid\u0002term (high confidence) (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological \r\nDiversity, 2009; Gattuso et  al., 2018; Barkdull and Harris, 2019; \r\nMcLeod et al., 2019)."


id: b1b294208db77f0b50ed38b03fa58800
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25452
content:
"Coastal adaptation often addresses the risk of flooding and erosion from \r\nSLR, changes in storm activity and degradation of coastal ecosystems \r\nand their services (high confidence) (Sections 3.4.2, 3.5; Oppenheimer \r\net al., 2019). Without coastal protection, people and property will be \r\nincreasingly exposed to coastal flooding after 2050, especially under \r\nRCP8.5 (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Bevacqua et al., 2020; \r\nKirezci et  al., 2020). This section assesses adaptation responses for \r\ncoastal ecosystems, addressing loss of natural coastal protection \r\n(Sections  3.4.2.1, 3.4.2.4-3.4.2.6), and the need for relocation \r\n(Section 3.6.2.1.2). Adaptation responses specific to SLR are assessed \r\nin detail in Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3, while adaptation in \r\ncoastal cities and settlements is assessed in Chapter 6."


id: 954ef6b83e1d2ba82f639af92a8afc3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20987
content:
"This section assesses implemented adaptations introduced in \r\nSection  3.6.2 for selected marine sectors (Section  3.6.3.1) and \r\necosystems (Section  3.6.3.2), using case studies to emphasise \r\ncharacteristics that enable or inhibit adaptation (Section  3.6.3.3). \r\nThe feasibility and effectiveness of these adaptations are assessed \r\nin Figure 3.24."


id: 5320e094d3f36a1561755cee0d0e9f49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10546
content:
"Table 3.30 |  Assessment of marine and coastal nature-based solutions to reduce mid-term climate impacts in oceans and coastal ecosystemsa"


id: 99e9312f2ae9c013343435bfae2f9f07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21743
content:
"regimes develop around human rights, migration (Scobie, 2019a), \r\ndisplacement (George Puthucherril, 2012) and the implications for \r\nnational sovereignty (Yamamoto and Esteban, 2014) of disappearing \r\nland spaces caused by climate change. Colonial power dynamics can \r\ninfluence climate-change responses (Chapter 18), for example, when \r\nexternal funders favour migration over local desires to adapt in place \r\nto preserve national identity and sovereignty (Bordner et  al., 2020). \r\nExamples of relocation within livelihoods' customary land show some \r\nsuccesses (Section 15.3.4.6)."


id: 3b80fc6067cb194f4898c802be9e2cae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6711
content:
"Coastal conservation tends to involve cost-effective, low-impact actions \r\nthat aim to support both adaptation and mitigation by conserving a \r\nwide array of ecosystem functions and services (Gattuso et al., 2018; \r\nGattuso et al., 2021), and that are achievable by nations with extensive \r\ncoastlines or low-income status (Herr et  al., 2017; Taillardat et  al., \r\n2018). Where coastlines are undeveloped, the lowest-risk option is to \r\navoid new development, but elsewhere, coastal conservation includes \r\nprotection of key assets, accommodation of SLR, advancing defences \r\nseawards or upwards, or planned retreat from the coast (Cross\u0002Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3)."


id: 528f791bc7a2a6bfeebe5bbd46611c59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10447
content:
"Evidence since SROCC (Section, 5.5.2.3.3; Bindoff et  al., 2019a) \r\ncontinues to show that built infrastructure cannot address all of the \r\nadaptation challenges that coastal communities face. Coastal squeeze \r\ncreates tensions between coastal development, armouring and habitat \r\nmanagement (Sections  3.4.2.4-3.4.2.6). Managed realignment is \r\nthe best option to reduce risks from SLR (high confidence) (Cross\u0002Chapter  Box  SLR in Chapter  3) but requires transformative changes \r\nin coastal development and settlement (Felipe Perez and Tomaselli, \r\n2021; Fitton et al., 2021; Mach and Siders, 2021; Siders et al., 2021). \r\nImplementation of protective measures varies among nations and \r\nlack of financial resources limits the options available (very high \r\nconfidence) (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Hinkel et al., 2018; \r\nKlock and Nunn, 2019)."


id: 515affb7c7034219ccfcc61a472ec80f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10256
content:
"Hard-engineered structures like seawalls are generally more costly \r\nthan nature-based adaptations (high confidence) (Herivaux et  al., \r\n2018; Haasnoot et  al., 2019; Nicholls et  al., 2019; Oppenheimer \r\net al., 2019) and can lock communities into engineered responses in \r\nthe future (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3), creating trade-offs \r\nwith mitigation goals, which constitutes maladaptation (Nunn et al., \r\n2021) that carries ecological and cultural costs (Sections  3.4.2.4, \r\n3.4.2.6, 3.5.6). As a result, there is high agreement on the importance \r\nof shifting from hard infrastructure to soft infrastructure for coastal \r\ndefence (Toimil et al., 2020; Nunn et al., 2021). The common remedy for \r\nbeach erosion is beach nourishment (Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Pinto \r\net al., 2020; Elko et al., 2021), which provides rapid results but poorly \r\nquantified trade-offs between efficacy, long-term cost, utility to beach \r\nusers and ecological damage (de Schipper et al., 2021)."


id: 8294984a284d60cf6bf8c7fdef5be0c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18068
content:
"SROCC (Bindoff et  al., 2019a) assessed adaptation in fisheries and \r\nmariculture (marine aquaculture), and socioeconomically focused \r\nupdates are provided in Section 5.8.4 and Cross-Chapter Box MOVING \r\nSPECIES in Chapter 5. Here, we present a brief synthesis of how fisheries \r\nand mariculture adaptations interact with the natural environment, \r\nwith further detail and supporting material in SM3.5.2."


id: 1ef5b74d0e154dc77c0f813250b52886
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2308
content:
"For highly exposed human settlements, migration is an adaptation \r\noption (e.g., for some island populations under extreme circumstances), \r\nbut there are important uncertainties (Section 15.3.4.6), as international "


id: e14b49b32200695ec20b8f8887b4cdc4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32939
content:
"Authors: Goneri Le Cozannet (France, Chapter 13, CCP4), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand, Chapter 11), David S. Schoeman (Australia, \r\nChapter 3), Ibidun Adelekan (Nigeria, Chapter 9), Sarah R. Cooley (USA, Chapter 3), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa, Chapter 18, \r\nCCP2), Marjolijn Haasnoot (The Netherlands, Chapter 13, CCP2), Rebecca Harris (Australia, Chapter 2), Wolfgang Kiessling (Germany, \r\nChapter  3), Robert E. Kopp (USA, WGI), Aditi Mukherji (Nepal, Chapter  4), Patrick Nunn (Australia, Chapter  15), Dieter Piepenburg \r\n(Germany, Chapter 13), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany, Chapter 13), Craig T. Simmons (Australia), Chandni Singh (India, Chapter 10, \r\nCCP2), Aimee Slangen (The Netherlands, WGI), Seree Supratid (Thailand, Chapter 4)."


id: 9c54a4a2c40942dac21ddab2999ed15e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22148
content:
"Sea level rise is already impacting ecosystems, human livelihoods, infrastructure, food security and climate mitigation at the coast and \r\nbeyond. Ultimately, it threatens the existence of cities and settlements in low-lying areas, and some island nations and their cultural \r\nheritage (Chapters 9-15; Cross-Chapter Papers 2, 4; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). The challenge can be addressed by mitigation of climate \r\nchange and coastal adaptation."


id: 48ac733018ed39c2a5b799a91da392c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8811
content:
"Coastal ecosystems can migrate landward or grow vertically in response to SLR, but their resilience and capacity to keep up with SLR \r\nwill be compromised by ocean warming and other drivers, depending on regions and species, for example, above 1.5degC for coral reefs \r\n(high confidence) (Chapters 3, 16; IPCC, 2018; Melbourne et al., 2018; Perry et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b; Cornwall et al., 2021). Sediments \r\nand space for landward retreat are crucial for mangroves, salt marshes and beach ecosystems (high confidence) (Chapter 3; Peteet et al., \r\n2018; Schuerch et al., 2018; FitzGerald and Hughes, 2019; Friess et al., 2019; Leo et al., 2019; Schuerch et al., 2019). Loss of habitat \r\nis accompanied by loss of associated ecosystem services, including wave-energy attenuation, habitat provision for biodiversity, food \r\nproduction and carbon storage (Chapter 3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2)."


id: 8bf0af736ce716b257abb281827b74f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19531
content:
"At centennial time scales, projected SLR represents an existential threat for island nations, low-lying coastal zones and the communities, \r\ninfrastructure, and cultural heritage therein (Chapters 9-15; Cross-Chapter Paper 4). Even if climate warming is stabilised at 2degC to \r\n2.5degC GWL, coastlines will continue to reshape over millennia, affecting at least 25 megacities and drowning low-lying areas where \r\n0.6-1.3 billion people lived in 2010 (medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 9; Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Clark et al., 2016; Kulp \r\nand Strauss, 2019; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Strauss et al., 2021)."


id: 411e80db7e84ce236bc139bc59ca451a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7634
content:
"The ability to adapt to current coastal impacts, to cope with future coastal risks and to prevent further acceleration of SLR beyond 2050 \r\ndepends on immediate mitigation and adaptation actions (very high confidence). The most urgent adaptation challenge is chronic flooding \r\nat high tide (Chapters  10, 11, 13-15). Reducing the acceleration of SLR beyond 2050 will only be achieved with fast and profound \r\nmitigation of climate change (Nicholls et al., 2018; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Until 2050, adaptation planning and implementation needs \r\nare projected to increase significantly in most inhabited coastal regions (see Figure BoxSLR1; WGI AR6 Chapter 9; IPCC, 2019b; Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021). For SSP1-2.6 and more strongly forced scenarios, SLR rates continue to increase (WGI AR6 Chapter 9; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021), \r\nand so do the scale and frequency of adaptation interventions needed in coastal zones (Figure BoxSLR1; Haasnoot et al., 2020)."


id: de82f82ec33918e2908489c1520570d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32511
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation can reduce impacts on human settlements and bring substantial co-benefits, such as ecosystem services \r\nrestoration and carbon storage, but they require space for sediment and ecosystems and have site-specific physical limits, at least above \r\n1.5degC GWL (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; Chapters 3, 9, 11, 15; Herbert et al., 2015; Brown et al., 2019; Van \r\nCoppenolle and Temmerman, 2019; Watanabe et al., 2019; Neijnens et al., 2021). For example, planting and conserving vegetation helps "


id: 328ce4f02082189734ba0502073217d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5369
content:
"sediment accumulation by dissipating wave energy and reducing impacts of storms, at least at present-day sea levels (high confidence) \r\n(Temmerman et al., 2013; Narayan et al., 2016; Romanach et al., 2018; Laengner et al., 2019; Leo et al., 2019). Coastal wetlands and \r\necosystems can be preserved by landward migration (Schuerch et al., 2018; Schuerch et al., 2019) or sediment supply (VanZomeren et al., \r\n2018), but they can be seriously damaged by coastal defences designed to protect infrastructure (Chapters 3, 13; Cooper et al., 2020b). \r\nSediment nourishment can prevent erosion, but it can also negatively impact beach amenities and ecosystems through ongoing dredging, \r\npumping and deposition of sand and silts (VanZomeren et al., 2018; de Schipper et al., 2021; Harris et al., 2021)."


id: 74ccb76550c3a1fa2106eab00f66b107
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15971
content:
"breakwaters and groins, and NbS (Section 3.6.2.1), are becoming more \r\ncommon, partly due to demand from the tourism industry (medium \r\nconfidence) (Pranzini, 2018; Pranzini et al., 2018)."


id: 1c352c082c315f5810fa4cd1f8e112f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1897
content:
"Elsewhere, interactions between tourism and climate impacts worsen \r\noutcomes for coastal and ocean environments (Section  3.6.3.1.4). \r\nClimate change is opening up new cruise-ship routes in the Arctic \r\n(Sun et  al., 2018), increasing the number of visitors and associated \r\nstressors, such as litter, to previously undisturbed areas (Anfuso et al., \r\n2020; Hovelsrud et al., 2020; Suaria et al., 2020). Risk reduction for \r\ncruise-ship tourism includes disaster response management, improved \r\nmapping and passenger codes of conduct ensuring social, cultural and \r\necological sustainability (Stewart et al., 2015; Dawson et al., 2016)."


id: dd8e8147184875cf7ad3f12c09756b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32357
content:
"Unintended consequences of ecotourism, such as detrimental ecological \r\nimpacts on reefs (Giglio et al., 2020), sharks, marine birds (Monti et al., \r\n2018) and whales (Higham et al., 2016; Barra et al., 2020; Hoarau et al., \r\n2020), can be minimised by relying on evidence-based management \r\nof associated activities (Blumstein et  al., 2017). Public perception of \r\nclimate-change connections to tourism can create obstacles (Meynecke \r\net al., 2017; Atzori et al., 2018) such as deterring long-term investment \r\nin SIDS tourism initiatives (Santos-Lacueva et  al., 2017), or benefits "


id: dc759293c5c126a0dee51cb02eff3e32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32187
content:
"Coastal areas, coastal infrastructure and beaches, sustaining tourism \r\nthat contributes significantly to local economies (James et  al., 2019; \r\nRuiz-Ramirez et al., 2019), are under threat from development, SLR and \r\nincreased wave energy during storms (high confidence) (Sections 3.4.2.4-\r\n3.4.2.6, 3.5.6, SM3.3.1; Lithgow et al., 2019; Ruiz-Ramirez et al., 2019). \r\nEngineered solutions, such as seawalls and revetments, have traditionally \r\nbeen used to address coastal erosion (Section  3.6.3.1.1), but soft \r\ninfrastructure approaches, including beach nourishment, submerged "


id: aaf0e02e5b78765036d48e3f74c11842
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24414
content:
"like inclining tourists to participate in conservation projects (Curnock \r\net al., 2019; Miller et al., 2020b; Ziegler et al., 2021). Social and cultural \r\nnetworks may decrease climate vulnerability, as with Indigenous \r\ntourism operators in SIDS (Parsons et  al., 2018). Tourism-based \r\nadaptation can also be improved by equitable access to resources \r\nas well as recognition and inclusion of all stakeholders during policy \r\nplanning and implementation. The principles of marine spatial planning \r\n(Papageorgiou, 2016) provide for effectively incorporating stakeholders \r\nand could inform development of activities to assess climate-associated \r\nrisks (e.g., Tzoraki et  al., 2018; Loehr, 2020). The recent decrease in \r\nglobal tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic may offer opportunities \r\nto transform existing practices to more sustainable approaches (Cross\u0002Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7; Gossling et al., 2021)."


id: e01560e0670ab660a24250e39a1a1c44
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32748
content:
"SROCC concluded that protection, restoration and pollution reduction \r\ncan support ocean and coastal ecosystems (high confidence), and that \r\nEbA lowers climate risks locally and provides multiple societal benefits \r\n(high confidence) (IPCC, 2019c). This section updates the assessment \r\nof the effectiveness of these strategies for addressing climate impacts."


id: f7ddb003bfc300561b16cadd4f85acf3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36517
content:
"Marine protected areas are the most widely implemented area-based \r\nmanagement approach (Section  3.6.2.3.2), commonly intended \r\nto conserve, preserve or restore biodiversity and habitats, protect \r\nspecies or manage resources (especially fisheries) (National Research \r\nCouncil, 2001). By August 2021, 7.74% of the ocean was protected \r\n(in both MPAs and OECMs) (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2021), primarily \r\nwithin nations' exclusive economic zones (EEZs). These MPAs support "


id: 3d83a0b6535b58996ac6644591c8ae71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7037
content:
"Health-focused adaptations to climate-driven changes in ocean and \r\ncoastal water quality (Section 3.5.5.3) leverage mainly technology and \r\ninfrastructure (Section 3.6.2.2) to improve water-quality monitoring and \r\nforecasting to inform socio-institutional adaptation (Section  3.6.2.1) "


id: dc1d52b3c7597b97f17fa669b07a40d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32142
content:
"Figure 3.24 |  Assessment of feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation solutions for ocean and coastal ecosystems. Feasibility dimensions assessed include: \r\ntechnical and economic capacity to deliver and implement the solution; the institutional and geophysical capacity to implement a solution; and associated social and ecological \r\nimplications that make a solution more feasible. The general feasibility level is obtained from assessment of the three dimensions together. Note that feasibility is assessed for marine \r\nand coastal ecosystems as a whole and not by ecosystem type or region. Feasibility dimensions and assessment are updated and adapted from IPCC (2018) and Singh et al. (2020). \r\nEffectiveness: ability of the adaptation solution to reduce climate-change mid-term risks. The main solutions are assessed per sector. (Underlying data are available in Table 3.SM.3.)"


id: 871a953cce6676e4aec21f3347cce41f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18789
content:
"adaptation by sustaining nearshore ecosystems that provide natural \r\nerosion barriers (Sections  3.4.2.1-3.4.2.5; Cross-Chapter  Box  SLR in \r\nChapter 3), ecosystem function (Cheng et al., 2019), habitat, natural \r\nfiltration, carbon storage, livelihoods and cultural opportunities \r\n(Sections 3.5.5, 3.5.6; Erskine et al., 2021), and help ecosystems and \r\nlivelihoods recover after extreme events (Roberts et al., 2017; Aalto \r\net al., 2019; Wilson et al., 2020a). However, in 2021 only 2.7% of the \r\nocean was in fully or highly protected MPAs (Marine Conservation \r\nInstitute, 2021), the hard-to-achieve states that most effectively rebuild \r\nbiomass and fish community structure (Sala and Giakoumi, 2017; "


id: 14a5dad74d02661b0e632e88d544998c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 753
content:
"Bergseth, 2018; Zupan et al., 2018; Ohayon et al., 2021). Only 1.18% \r\nof ABNJ is protected (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2021), mostly due to \r\ngovernance limitations (O'Leary and Roberts, 2017; Vijayaraghavan, \r\n2021), but calls to protect more ABNJ emphasise the need to protect \r\nthe habitats of long-range pelagic fish and marine mammals, maintain \r\nthe ocean's regulating functions and minimise impacts from uses such \r\nas maritime shipping or deep-sea mining (Table 3.30)."


id: c0d002e24f9291e5118e5ea68a795b13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27899
content:
"Marine protected areas are theorised to facilitate ecological climate \r\nadaptation and contribute to SDG14 (Life Below Water) (Table  3.30; "


id: 93fe6aefcd8832ab0df2b13e6b6d6f2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20791
content:
"There is growing international support for a 30% conservation target \r\nfor 2030 (Gurney et al., 2021), which will need efforts beyond protected \r\nareas. For example, OECMs recognise management interventions that \r\nsustain biodiversity, irrespective of their main objective (Maxwell et al., \r\n2020b; Gurney et al., 2021). There is high agreement on the potential \r\nof OECMs to contribute to conservation and equity, for example, by \r\nrecognising Indigenous territories as OECMs (Maxwell et al., 2020b; \r\nGurney et al., 2021); however, the capacity of these conservation tools \r\nto provide adaptation outcomes remains unexplored."


id: 28b090fc83bfc8eea078bf0046775b3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3829
content:
"In summary, MPAs and other marine spatial-planning tools have great \r\npotential to address climate-change mitigation and adaptation in \r\nocean and coastal ecosystems, if they are designed and implemented \r\nin a coordinated way that takes into account ecosystem vulnerability \r\nand responses to projected climate conditions, considers existing and \r\nfuture ecosystem uses and non-climate drivers, and supports effective \r\ngovernance (high confidence)."


id: c63b91fc36a2baf6085c1644fbc15988
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28765
content:
"Restoration of degraded ecosystems is a common NbS increasingly \r\ndeployed at local scales in response to climate change (Cross\u0002Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; Duarte et al., 2020; Bertolini and \r\nda Mosto, 2021; Braun de Torrez et al., 2021). Despite covering limited \r\nareas and having uncertain efficacy under future climate change \r\n(Gordon et al., 2020), these actions have successfully restored marine \r\npopulations and ecosystems at regional to global scales (Duarte et al., \r\n2020), and enhanced livelihoods and the well-being of coastal peoples \r\nas well as the biodiversity and resilience of ecological communities \r\n(Silver et al., 2019; Gordon et al., 2020; Braun de Torrez et al., 2021). \r\nTechnology-based approaches, such as active restoration, assisted \r\nevolution and ecological forecasting, can aid in moving beyond \r\nrestoring ecosystems (Section 3.6.2.3) towards enhancing resilience, \r\nreviving biodiversity and guarding against loss of foundational, "


id: 5b958b5b9f5675d2f90c24867ee2fe07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11909
content:
"Strategic conservation planning can yield future MPA networks \r\nsubstantially more ready for climate change (e.g., Section  3.6.3.1.5; \r\nSROCC SPM C2.1; IPCC, 2019c; Frazao Santos et al., 2020; Rassweiler \r\net  al., 2020). Global protection is increasing (Worm, 2017; Claudet \r\net  al., 2020b) as nations pursue international targets (e.g., SDG14, \r\nLife Below Water aimed to conserve 10% of the ocean by 2020), \r\nand the UN CBD proposes to protect 30% by 2030 (Section  3.6.4; \r\nSM3.5.3; CBD, 2020). A growing body of evidence (Tittensor et  al., \r\n2019; Zhao et  al., 2020a; Portner et  al., 2021b; Sala et  al., 2021) "


id: 7e760137c67c0fdd9e7decb32b285ded
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17460
content:
"ornamental or iconic species (Bulleri et al., 2018; Collins et al., 2019a; \r\nda Silva et al., 2019; National Academies of Sciences, 2019; Bostrom\u0002Einarsson et  al., 2020; Fredriksen et  al., 2020; Morris et  al., 2020c; \r\nKleypas et al., 2021)."


id: 9f4a872e61c620d4469a9f48ab7d2cba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22604
content:
"Not only is mitigation necessary to support ocean and coastal \r\nadaptation (Portner et  al., 2014; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019), but the \r\nglobal emission pathways also impose limits to ocean and coastal \r\nadaptation, with lower warming levels enabling greater effectiveness \r\nof adaptations (high confidence) (Figure  3.25). Chapter  17 broadly \r\nassesses the limits to adaptation, while this section focuses on barriers \r\nand limits to adaptation imposed by cultural (Section  3.6.3.3.1), \r\neconomic (Section  3.6.3.3.2) and governance (Section  3.6.3.3.3) \r\ndimensions (Hinkel et al., 2018). Globally, these factors more strongly \r\ninfluence ocean development than does local natural resource \r\navailability (Cisneros-Montemayor et  al., 2021), and are key to \r\navoiding maladaptation. This section also assesses enablers and limits \r\nto mitigation (Section 3.6.3.3.4)."


id: 3a60d8daddfeaa4532d963e19c1de398
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6549
content:
"Restoration efficacy of coral reefs, kelp forests and other habitat\u0002forming coastal ecosystems (Sections 3.4.2.2-3.4.2.6) are jeopardised \r\nby the near-term nature of climate-driven risks (McLeod et al., 2019; \r\nNational Academies of Sciences, 2019; Coleman et  al., 2020b). \r\nModelling studies indicate that available practices will not prevent \r\ndegradation of coral reefs from >1.5degC of global average surface \r\nwarming (Figure  3.25; National Academies of Sciences Engineering \r\nand Medicine, 2019; Condie et al., 2021; Hafezi et al., 2021). Proposed \r\ninterventions include assisted migration (Bostrom-Einarsson et  al., \r\n2020; Fredriksen et al., 2020; Morris et al., 2020c), assisted evolution \r\n(Bay et  al., 2019; National Academies of Sciences, 2019) and other \r\nengineering solutions like artificial shading and enhanced upwelling \r\n(Condie et al., 2021; Kleypas et al., 2021)."


id: 962a5f16d14fd49a8e9aa79be737589d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21134
content:
"Transplanting heat-tolerant coral colonies can increase reef resistance \r\nto bleaching (Morikawa and Palumbi, 2019; Howells et  al., 2021) \r\nbut potentially lower species diversity and alter ecosystem function \r\n(Section  3.4.2.1). Genetic manipulation or assisted evolution that \r\npropagates genes from heat-tolerant populations could enhance \r\nrestoration of corals (Anthony et al., 2017; Epstein et al., 2019) and \r\nkelp (medium agreement, limited evidence) (Coleman and Goold, "


id: b6b9bcc436d713a576a23f32070be38a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26271
content:
"Every coastal community values marine ecosystems for more than \r\nthe material and intangible resources they deliver, or the physical \r\nprotection they offer (Diaz et al., 2018). Cultural services that provide \r\nidentity, spiritual and cultural continuity, religious meaning or options "


id: ca13073b5c1fa8f11fe11244c9b0d83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29349
content:
"(a) Global implementation since 1970 of (top) cumulative habitat-restoration projects (Duarte et al., 2020), (middle) cumulative area-based conservation protected area (MPA \r\ntotal) (Boonzaier and Pauly, 2016), no-take areas (UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre et al., 2018; UNEP-WCMC, 2019) and (bottom) percentage of total fish \r\nstocks rebuilt (Kleisner et al., 2013)."


id: 9f361aa896cc8468f2b77b6f4417d994
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22583
content:
"(b) Adaptation pathways for coral reefs to maintain healthy cover (line weight: solid lines, likely effectiveness; dashed lines, more likely than not to likely; dotted lines = unlikely to \r\nmore likely than not), with confidence noted for each intervention (Section 3.4.2.1, 3.6.3.2; Anthony et al., 2019; National Academies of Sciences, 2019)\r\n(c) As in (b), but for mangrove ecosystems. (Underlying data are available in Tables SM3.4-3.6.)"


id: da6cf85b656c3d2e4bab3d5bc4ed580d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31892
content:
"for the future (e.g., genetic or mineral resources) (Bindoff et al., 2019a) \r\nare not substitutable. Furthermore, interactions between climate \r\nimpacts and existing inequalities can threaten the human rights of \r\nalready-marginalised peoples by disrupting livelihoods and food \r\nsecurity, which further erodes people's social, economic and cultural \r\nrights (Finkbeiner et  al., 2018). For instance, European colonisation \r\nand ongoing development blocked the Cucapa Indigenous People's \r\naccess and rights to resources in the Colorado River Delta, USA, over \r\nthe 20th century. Recent reallocation of water rights and fishing access \r\nis allowing the Cucapa people to reconstruct their cultural identity \r\n(Sangha et al., 2019), but future climate-change impacts could reverse \r\nthe community's recovery of their cultural heritage. Adaptations that \r\nconsider local needs may help sustain cultural services (Ortiz Linan and \r\nVazquez Solis, 2021)."


id: 34aadd88948c0d9ccbaeb1e59017ea1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5688
content:
"with traditional norms and beneficial to local communities (von der \r\nPorten et al., 2019). Successful adaptation would simultaneously improve \r\necosystem health and address current and historical inequities (Bennett, \r\n2018). Examples include practicing traditional resource management, \r\nprotecting traditional territories, engaging with monitoring, collaborations \r\nwith non-Indigenous partners and reinvesting benefits into capacity\u0002building within communities (von der Porten et al., 2019; Equator Initiative, \r\n2020). The legitimacy of different adaptation strategies depends on local "


id: 6c4b8798ad0995a2aa3037296406d24a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14663
content:
"and Indigenous Peoples' acceptance, which is based on cultural values \r\n(Adger et al., 2017); financial gain cannot compensate for loss of IK or LK \r\n(Wilson et al., 2020b). Palau's recent goal of shifting seafood consumption \r\naway from reef fishes (Remengesau Jr., 2019) as well as limiting and \r\nclosely monitoring the expansion of ecotourism was prompted by the \r\ncultural importance of protecting these reefs and associated traditional \r\nfisheries for local consumption, a recognition of the importance of tourism \r\nand the hazard of climate change (Wabnitz et al., 2018a)."


id: a2ead7c50c45647a4b5be3cfa424544b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23199
content:
"FAQ 3.5 | How can nature-based solutions, including marine protected areas, help us to adapt to climate-driven \r\nchanges in the oceans?"


id: 8cc2c97ba83adc949e80b7d674ee3095
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19663
content:
"Coastal habitats, such as mangroves or vegetated dunes, protect coastal communities from sea level rise and storm surges while supporting \r\nfisheries, sequestering carbon and providing other ecosystem services as well. Efforts to restore, conserve and/or recover these natural habitats \r\nhelp people confront the impacts of climate change. These marine nature-based solutions (NbS), such as Marine protected areas (MPAs), \r\nhabitat restoration and sustainable fisheries, are cost-effective and provide myriad benefits to society."


id: 2705c65a89fd7a862a295ca26da95adf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3536
content:
"In the oceans, NbS comprise attempts to recover, restore or conserve coastal and marine habitats to reduce the \r\nimpacts of climate change on nature and society. Marine habitats, such as seagrasses and coral reefs, provide \r\nservices like food and flood regulation in the same way as forests do on land. Coastal habitats, such as mangroves or \r\nvegetated dunes, protect coastal communities from sea level rise and storm surges while supporting fisheries as well \r\nas recreational and aesthetic services. Seagrasses, coral reefs and kelp forests also provide important benefits that \r\nhelp humans adapt to climate change, including sustainable fishing, recreation and shoreline protection services. \r\nBy recognising these services and benefits of the ocean, NbS can improve the quality and integrity of the marine \r\necosystems."


id: d93b927d41aa5029fee2098d2abd36fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31687
content:
"Nature-based solutions offer a wide range of potential benefits, including protecting ecosystem services, supporting \r\nbiodiversity and mitigating climate change. Coastal and marine examples include MPAs, habitat restoration, habitat \r\ndevelopment and maintaining sustainable fisheries. While local communities with limited resources might find \r\nNbS challenging to implement, they are generally 'no-regret' options, which bring societal and ecological benefits \r\nregardless of the level of climate change."


id: bb40f1e11c8ba2b2fe26a61c1642ff83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27004
content:
"Carefully designed and placed MPAs, especially when they exclude fishing, can increase resilience to climate change by \r\nremoving additional stressors on ecosystems. While MPAs do not prevent extreme events, such as marine heatwaves \r\n(FAQ3.2), they can provide marine plants and animals with a better chance to adapt to a changing climate. Current \r\nMPAs, however, are often too small, too poorly connected and too static to account for climate-induced shifts in \r\nthe range of marine species. MPA networks that are large, connected, have adaptable boundaries and are designed \r\nfollowing systematic analysis of future climate projections can better support climate resilience."


id: aac456dca5ad9903fb12152fd7eb32ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24391
content:
"Habitat restoration and development in coastal systems can support biodiversity, protect communities from \r\nflooding and erosion, support the local economy and enhance the livelihoods and well-being of coastal peoples. \r\nRestoration of mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows provide effective ways to remove carbon dioxide \r\nfrom the atmosphere and at the same time protect coasts from the impacts of storms and SLR. Active restoration \r\ntechniques that target heat-resistant individuals or species are increasingly recommended for coral reefs and kelp \r\nforests, which are highly vulnerable to marine heatwaves and climate change."


id: d320e3568095038764e548f46215f6a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30742
content:
"Sustainable fishing is also seen as an NbS because managing marine commercial species within sustainable limits \r\nmaximises the catch and food production, thus contributing to the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero \r\nHunger). Currently, the oceans provide 17% of the animal protein eaten by the global population, but the \r\ncontribution could be larger if fisheries were managed sustainably. Aquaculture, such as oyster farming, can be an \r\nefficient and sustainable means of food production and also provide additional benefits like shoreline protection. \r\nThrough NbS that conserve and restore marine habitats and species, we can sustain marine biodiversity, respond to \r\nclimate change and provide benefits to society."


id: 55288dd9cf89290e410f8a0c68cfa3b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10858
content:
"adaptation also vary among groups of age, race, (dis)ability, class, caste \r\nand gender (Wilson et al., 2020b), so engaging different groups results \r\nin more robust and equitable adaptation to climate change (Cross\u0002Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18; McLeod et al., 2018). Some coastal \r\ncommunities have developed substantial social capital and dense local \r\nnetworks based on trust and reciprocity (Petzold and Ratter, 2015), \r\nwith individual and community flexibility to learn, adapt and organise "


id: 653ec02cf9aa80e57f8c5083df8c544f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13503
content:
"Adaptations implemented at the local level that consider IKLK systems \r\nare beneficial (high confidence) (Nalau et  al., 2018; Sultana et  al., \r\n2019). Studies in SIDS and the Arctic have shown how IKLK facilitate \r\nthe success of EbA (Nalau et  al., 2018; Penaherrera-Palma et  al., \r\n2018; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018), reinforce and improve \r\ninstitutional approaches and enhance the provision of ecosystem \r\nservices (Ross et  al., 2019; Terra Stori et  al., 2019). Perspectives on "


id: 20483879dac94a94b80d4f0094521a6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2530
content:
"themselves to help local adaptation governance (Silva et  al., 2020). \r\nRecent evidence suggests that policies supporting local institutions \r\ncan improve adaptation outcomes (medium confidence) (Berman et al., \r\n2020). Coastal communities can be engaged using novel approaches \r\nto co-generate adaptation solutions (van der Voorn et al., 2017; Flood \r\net  al., 2018) that benefit education (Koenigstein et  al., 2020) and \r\nengagement in adaptation processes (Rumore et al., 2016). Successful \r\nadaptation implementation in line with climate resilient development \r\npathways (WGII Chapter 18) depends on bottom-up, participatory and \r\ninclusive processes (Section 3.6.1.2.1) that engage diverse stakeholders \r\n(Basel et al., 2020; McNamara et al., 2020; Ogier et al., 2020; Williams \r\net  al., 2020) and protect Indigenous customary rights (Farbotko and \r\nMcMichael, 2019; Ford et al., 2020), empower women and give rights to \r\nclimate refugees (McLeod et al., 2018)."


id: 13e0b57747cfd9d10ccbe837cdc23bc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 634
content:
"include integrating adaptation investments into insurance schemes \r\n(Reguero et  al., 2020) and using debt financing to bridge the time \r\nuntil benefits are realised (Ware and Banhalmi-Zakar, 2020). Insurance \r\nmechanisms that link payments to losses from a trigger event (e.g., \r\nMHW) can confer resilience to marine-dependent communities \r\n(Sumaila et  al., 2021). All innovative financial instruments are most \r\neffective when they are inclusive and reach vulnerable groups and \r\nmarginalised communities (low evidence, high agreement) (Claudet \r\net al., 2020a; Sumaila et al., 2021)."


id: 649b1eb2a55e10dcf6853e2af40c80e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13398
content:
"Ocean governance has become increasingly complex as new initiatives, \r\nnew international agreements, institutions and scientific evidence \r\narise at global, national and subnational scales (high agreement) \r\n(Bindoff et al., 2019a; Scobie, 2019b), limiting the present effectiveness \r\nof adaptation (IPCC, 2019c). Marine climate governance is within \r\nthe normatively contested marine governance space (Frazao Santos \r\net al., 2020), which is influenced by geopolitics (Gray et al., 2020) and \r\nprofit maximisation (Flannery et  al., 2016; Haas et  al., 2021) in ways \r\nthat can entrench exclusionary processes in decision making, science \r\nmanagement and funding (Levin et  al., 2018). This limits just and \r\ninclusive ocean governance (Bennett, 2018), perpetuates historical and \r\ncultural extractive practices and climate inaction, and leaves little space \r\nfor Indigenous-led adaptation frameworks and approaches (Nursey-Bray "


id: a13d8d2b51f58cdd1ed00f9fef0f4d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22929
content:
"Development assistance can help resolve resource constraints, \r\nbut additional governance and coordination challenges can arise \r\nfrom short-term, project-based funding, shifting the priorities of \r\ndonor institutions and the pressures placed on human resources in \r\nthe receiving nation (Parsons and Nalau, 2019; Nunn et  al., 2020). \r\nInnovative policy instruments, such as concessional loans, tax-policy \r\nreforms, climate bonds and public-debt forgiveness, can supplement \r\ntraditional financial instruments (Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018; McGowan \r\net al., 2020). Mechanisms for solving the persistent problem of securing \r\nupfront investments for coastal protection and other adaptation \r\nmeasures (Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018; Moser et al., 2019; Kok et al., 2021) "


id: 59e94991f65ff0979128cf91221efb7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11654
content:
"environmental impacts and lack of power-grid infrastructure at the \r\ncoast (Aderinto and Li, 2018; Neill et al., 2018)."


id: b87953110b40db9fb16ffd820c707f7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26553
content:
"et al., 2019). At the national level, ocean governance for climate-change \r\nadaptation is often transversal, requiring consideration of biophysical and \r\nenvironmental conditions (Furlan et al., 2020) while fitting into existing \r\neconomic (Kim, 2020) and political processes. Adaptation governance \r\nthat couples existing top-down structures with decentralised and \r\nparticipatory approaches generates shared goals and unlocks required \r\nresources and monitoring (Gupta et al., 2016; Haas et al., 2021)."


id: d24fa9e62cdf7867b8088d9f237aa5bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30615
content:
"The impacts of climate change on ocean and coastal ecosystems and \r\ntheir services threaten achievement of the UN SDGs by 2030 (high \r\nconfidence), particularly ocean targets (Table 3.31; Nilsson et al., 2016; \r\nPecl et al., 2017; IPCC, 2018; Singh et al., 2019a; Claudet et al., 2020a). \r\nNevertheless, local to international decision-making bodies have \r\nassigned the lowest priority to SDG14, Life Below Water (Nash et al., \r\n2020)."


id: cc327ec13ae9de4aed3f67ae844203f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29670
content:
"SROCC underscored the need for ambitious mitigation to control \r\nclimate hazards in the ocean to achieve SDGs (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Bindoff et al., 2019a; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Delays in \r\nachieving ocean-dependent SDGs observed in SROCC and SR15 can be \r\naddressed with ambitious planned adaptation and mitigation action \r\n(high agreement) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019b). Since the ocean can \r\ncontribute substantially to the attainment of mitigation targets aiming \r\nto limit warming to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2019b), and to adaptation solutions facilitating attainment of \r\nsocial and economic SDGs, climate policy is treating the ocean less as \r\na victim of climate change and more as a central participant in solving \r\nthe global climate challenge (Cooley et  al., 2019; Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2019a; Dundas et al., 2020)."


id: dee9c5bdd6f58398f6798d5a5c43ee55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32568
content:
"Marine-focused adaptations show promise in helping achieve \r\nsocial SDGs, especially when they are designed to achieve multiple \r\nbenefits (medium confidence) (Figure  3.26; Ntona and Morgera, \r\n2018; Claudet et al., 2020a). Technology- and infrastructure-focused \r\nadaptations (Section  3.6.2.2) can help relieve coastal communities "


id: 9833e2bcb2d12c914df2b8188f031d84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21456
content:
"Table 3.31 |  Sustainable Development Goals, grouped into broader categories as discussed in this sectiona"


id: 76ca40386b7a502287a06275c475bd02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16268
content:
"Developing marine adaptation pathways that offer multiple benefits \r\nrequires transformational adaptation (high confidence) (Claudet \r\net al., 2020a; Friedman et al., 2020; Wilson et al., 2020b; Nash et al., \r\n2021) that avoids risky and maladaptive actions (Magnan and \r\nDuvat, 2018; Ojea et  al., 2020). Ocean and coastal extreme events \r\nand other hazards disproportionately harm the most vulnerable \r\ncommunities in SIDS, tropical and Arctic regions, and Indigenous \r\nPeoples (Chapter 8.2.1.2). Presently implemented adaptation activity, \r\nat the aggregate level, adversely affects multiple gender targets under \r\nSDG5 (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18). \r\nAlthough women make up over half of the global seafood production \r\nworkforce (fishing and processing sectors), provide more than half the \r\nartisanal landings in the Pacific region (Harper et al., 2013), dominate \r\nsome seafood sectors such as seaweed (Howard and Pecl, 2019) and "


id: 8fc602503cb3433a68fbdfae2c7fcc93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20158
content:
"Figure 3.26 |  Synergies and trade-offs between SDG13 Climate Action, SDG14 Life Below Water and social, economic and governance SDGs. Achieving SDG13 \r\nprovides positive outcomes and supports the achievement of all SDG14 targets. In turn, meeting SDG14 drives mostly positive interactions with social, economic and governance \r\nSDGs. The interaction types, 'Indivisible' (inextricably linked to the achievement of another goal), 'Reinforcing' (aids the achievement of another goal), 'Enabling' (creates conditions \r\nthat further another goal), 'Consistent' (no significant positive or negative interactions) and 'Constraining' (limits options on another goal), follow Nilsson et al.'s (2016) scoring \r\nsystem based on the authors' assessment, and agreement denotes consistency across author ratings. (Full data are available in Table 3.SM.7.)"


id: e047e986aaf549d53e9c2e546d488cc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32782
content:
"The intricacy, scope, time scales and uncertainties associated with \r\nclimate change challenge ocean governance, which already is \r\nextremely complex because it encompasses a variety of overlapping \r\nspatial scales, concerns and governance structures (see Figure CB3.1 in \r\nSROCC Chapter 1; Prakash et al., 2019). Assessment of how established \r\nglobal agreements and regional, sectoral or scientific bodies address \r\nclimate adaptation and resilience, and how current practices can be \r\nimproved, is found in SM3.5.3."


id: be7f76d59a0ab913799e3c40b6f60a0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27526
content:
"There is high confidence in the literature that multilateral environmental \r\nagreements need better alignment and integration to support \r\nachievement of ambitious international development, climate mitigation \r\nand adaptation goals (Swilling et al., 202; Duarte et al., 2020; Friedman \r\net al., 2020; Conservation International and IUCN, 2021; Portner et al., \r\n2021b; Sumaila et al., 2021). The ocean targets of the CBD (e.g., the Post\u00022020 Global Biodiversity Framework), the SDGs (Agenda 2030) and the \r\nParis Agreement are already inclusive and synergistic (Duarte et al., 2020). \r\nHowever, specific policy instruments and sectors within them could be \r\nadditionally integrated, especially to address such cross-cutting impacts "


id: 10f89e77ced9339bb71e44dc53693ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 143
content:
"as ocean acidification and deoxygenation (Gallo et  al., 2017; Bindoff \r\net  al., 2019a), increasing plastic pollution (Ostle et  al., 2019; Duarte \r\net al., 2020), high-seas governance (Johnson et al., 2019; Leary, 2019) or \r\ndeep-sea uses (Wright et al., 2019; Levin et al., 2020; Orejas et al., 2020). \r\nNational adaptation plans present opportunities to synergistically build \r\non mitigation to support equitable development (Morioka et al., 2020), \r\neconomic planning (Dundas et  al., 2020; Lee et  al., 2020) and ocean \r\nstewardship (von Schuckmann et al., 2020). Alignment of multilateral \r\nagreements is expected to increase mitigation impact as well as increase \r\nadaptation options (Section  3.6.3; Figure  3.25; Roberts et  al., 2020). \r\nOpportunities to improve multilateral environmental agreements and \r\npolicies beyond UNFCCC and CBD processes are discussed in SM3.5.3, \r\nand an assessment of commercial species-management initiatives and \r\nneeds is in Chapter 5."


id: f7d9a71b7e2746d7fe34dc17db9112b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36513
content:
"employ portfolios of low-risk options, internalise IKLK and address social \r\naspects of governance from international to local scales (Finkbeiner \r\net al., 2018; Gattuso et al., 2018; Miller et al., 2018; Raymond-Yakoubian \r\nand Daniel, 2018; Cheung et al., 2019; Gattuso et al., 2021)."


id: 4011a94042b6e047a58864151c1afbe3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7459
content:
"We acknowledge the kind contributions of Rita Erven (GEOMAR \r\nHelmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany), Miriam \r\nSeifert (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, \r\nGermany), Sebastian Rokitta (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar \r\nand Marine Research, Germany), Amy Marie Campbell (National \r\nOceanography Centre, Southampton/Centre for Environment, \r\nFisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK), Mariana Castaneda-Guzman \r\n(Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA), Stephen \r\nGoult (Plymouth Marine Laboratory/National Centre for Earth \r\nObservation, UK), Josh Douglas (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK), \r\nCarl Reddin (Museum fur Naturkunde, Berlin, Germany) and the PML \r\nCommunications and Graphics Team (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, \r\nUK) who assisted in drafting figures and tables."


id: e09a7ce181d159735d33bfa855606c92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32841
content:
"Pinctada fucata [Zhang, R., L. Xie and Z. Yan(eds.)]. Springer Singapore, \r\nSingapore, pp. 661-694. ISBN 978-9811314599."


id: 70369a638b8a3b755c9117a6c5e21b2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15271
content:
"Zupan, M., et al., 2018: How good is your marine protected area at curbing \r\nthreats? Biol. Conserv., 221, 237-245, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.013."


id: 627404109fa67a629027a1ba2c9c1e79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13049
content:
"Lead Authors: Md Arfanuzzaman (Bangladesh), Richard A. Betts (UK), Alexander Gelfan (Russian \r\nFederation), Yukiko Hirabayashi (Japan), Tabea Katharina Lissner (Germany), Elena Lopez Gunn \r\n(Spain), Junguo Liu (China), Ruth Morgan (Australia), Sixbert Mwanga (Tanzania), Seree Supratid \r\n(Thailand)"


id: 79d9de22e13969c654dc69fb34cc1802
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16744
content:
"Caretta, M.A., A. Mukherji, M. Arfanuzzaman, R.A. Betts, A. Gelfan, Y. Hirabayashi, T.K. Lissner, J. Liu, E. Lopez Gunn, \r\nR. Morgan, S. Mwanga, and S. Supratid, 2022: Water. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. \r\nContribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \r\n[H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, \r\nV. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 551-712, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.006."


id: de5f6f43aa44c6f8c234b065eb73c154
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32481
content:
"Extreme weather events causing highly impactful floods and \r\ndroughts have become more likely and (or) more severe due to \r\nanthropogenic climate change (high confidence). {4.2.4, 4.2.5, \r\nCross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter 4}"


id: ff03c42b9ccfd9697a07827daaf3b51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37671
content:
"This chapter assesses observed and projected climate-induced changes \r\nin the water cycle, their current impacts and future risks on human and \r\nnatural systems and the benefits and effectiveness of water-related \r\nadaptation efforts now and in the future."


id: 3ea77ae08707032665455cfcaacc7afd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7241
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change has contributed to the increased \r\nlikelihood and severity of the impact of droughts (especially agricultural \r\nand hydrological droughts) in many regions (high confidence). Between \r\n1970 and 2019, 7% of all disaster events worldwide were drought\u0002related. Yet, they contributed to 34% of disaster-related deaths, mostly \r\nin Africa. {4.2.5, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, Cross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter 4}"


id: c6106b8ebc63ceda954d4257b4970a59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28741
content:
"Currently, roughly half of worlds ~8 billion people are estimated to \r\nexperience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year \r\ndue to climatic and non-climatic factors (medium confidence1\r\n). Since \r\nthe 1970s, 44% of all disaster events have been flood-related. Not \r\nsurprisingly, a large share of adaptation interventions (~60%) are \r\nforged in response to water-related hazards (high confidence). {4.1, \r\nBox 4.1, 4.2.1.1, 4.2.1.2, 4.2.2, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.2.6, 4.3.8, 4.6, 4.7}"


id: 5b801e5573972182d31d4231a13e4442
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11896
content:
"Several recent heavy rainfall events, such as in western Europe, China, \r\nJapan, the USA, Peru, Brazil and Australia that led to substantial \r\nflooding, were made more likely by anthropogenic climate change \r\n(high confidence). There is high confidence that the warming in the last \r\n40-60 years has led to ~10 d earlier spring floods per decade. Between \r\n1970 and 2019, 31% of all economic losses were flood-related. {4.2.4, \r\nCross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter 4}"


id: b3e9d820852a7f5abc096184dcc4061c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25821
content:
"Intensification of the hydrological cycle due to human-induced \r\nclimate change is affecting physical aspects of water security \r\n(high confidence), thereby exacerbating existing water-related \r\nvulnerabilities caused by other socioeconomic factors. {4.2, \r\n4.2.1.1, 4.2.1.2, 4.2.1.3, 4.2.2, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.2.6, 4.3}"


id: 2d72d0ed2989875515e62a0da6a935d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4592
content:
"There is increasing evidence of observed changes in \r\nthe hydrological cycle on people and ecosystems. A \r\nsignificant share of those impacts are negative and felt \r\ndisproportionately by already vulnerable communities (high \r\nconfidence). {4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.3, 4.3.4, 4.3.5, 4.3.6, 4.3.8}"


id: e958621af84eb999889a35b09f557ed2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34227
content:
"Nearly half a billion people live in unfamiliarly wet areas, where \r\nthe long-term average precipitation is as high as previously seen \r\nin only about one in six years (medium confidence). Approximately \r\n163  million people live in unfamiliarly dry areas now (medium \r\nconfidence). {4.2.1.1}"


id: 1b54f4bbc51260eaf6c1f5bb3f828827
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1760
content:
"Agriculture and energy production have been impacted by changes \r\nin the hydrological cycle (high confidence). Between 1983 and \r\n2009, approximately three-quarters of the global harvested areas \r\n(~454  million hectares) experienced yield losses induced by \r\nmeteorological drought, with the cumulative production losses \r\ncorresponding to USD 166  billion. There is medium confidence that \r\ncurrent global thermoelectric and hydropower production has been \r\nnegatively affected due to droughts with ~4-5% reduction in plant \r\nutilisation rates during drought years compared to long-term average \r\nvalues since the 1980s. {4.3.1, 4.3.2}"


id: a26a0c706278e22fd50ae15b22f18f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23116
content:
"The intensity of heavy precipitation has increased in many regions since \r\nthe 1950s (high confidence). Substantially more people (~709 million) \r\nlive in regions where annual maximum one-day precipitation has \r\nincreased than regions where it has decreased (~86 million) (medium \r\nconfidence). At the same time, more people (~700 million) are also \r\nexperiencing longer dry spells than shorter dry spells since the 1950s \r\n(medium confidence). {4.2.1.1}"


id: 55f0d62be5e9df7fef9a96ed27e7676a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11006
content:
"During the last two decades, the global glacier mass loss rate exceeded \r\n0.5 meters water equivalent per year (high confidence), impacting \r\nhumans and ecosystems, including cultural uses of water among \r\nvulnerable high mountain and polar communities (high confidence). \r\n{4.2.2, 4.3.8}"


id: cbe67bb87fbd54796d856e0bcaa25b70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29617
content:
"Climate change and changes in land use and water pollution are \r\nkey drivers of loss and degradation of freshwater ecosystems (high \r\nconfidence), with impacts observed on culturally significant terrestrial \r\nand freshwater species and ecosystems in the Arctic and high-mountain \r\nareas (high confidence). In addition, precipitation and extreme weather \r\nevents are linked to increased incidence and outbreaks of water-related \r\ndiseases (high confidence). {4.3.3, 4.3.4, 4.3.5, 4.3.8}"


id: dd1db036189e895ab1d25fefe4e61ad6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32286
content:
"There is a clear trend of increases in streamflow in the northern \r\nhigher latitudes (high confidence), with climatic factors being more \r\nimportant than direct human influence in a larger share of major \r\nglobal basins (medium confidence). At the same time, groundwater \r\nin aquifers across the tropics has experienced enhanced episodic \r\nrecharge from intense precipitation and flooding events (medium \r\nconfidence), with implications for sectoral water use. {4.2.3, 4.2.6, \r\n4.3.1, 4.3.4}"


id: 4e8fc2d1c61f268abff4999905412d45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9794
content:
"Changes in water-related hazards disproportionately impact vulnerable \r\npopulations such as the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples \r\nand the elderly in all locations, especially in the Global South, due \r\nto systemic inequities stemming from historical, socioeconomic and \r\npolitical marginalisation (medium confidence). {4.3.1, 4.3.3, 4.3.4, \r\n4.3.8}"


id: fc1e968a7f5d96cd096aa0ac5829a36c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37167
content:
"of WaSH services and slow progress towards reductions in WaSH\u0002related disease burdens (medium confidence). {4.5.3}"


id: d3bbb62f99b153590648ee9c899d985
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30836
content:
"Water-related risks are projected to increase with every degree \r\nof global warming (high confidence), and more vulnerable and \r\nexposed regions and peoples are projected to face greater \r\nrisks (medium confidence). {Box 4.1, 4.4.1, 4.4.1.1, 4.4.4, 4.5.4, \r\n4.5.5, 4.5.6, Box 4.2}"


id: 4e2c6c232d3f3895c09fa49ffdd47323
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9723
content:
"Limiting global warming to 1.5degC would reduce water-related \r\nrisks across regions and sectors (high confidence). {4.4.2, 4.4.5, \r\n4.5.2, 4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.6, 4.5.7, 4.6.1, 4.7.2}"


id: c88c769ff61851f14106147988d2093c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29117
content:
"Climate change impacts via water availability changes are projected to \r\nincrease with every degree of global warming (high confidence), but \r\nthere are high regional uncertainties. Between 3 and 4 billion people \r\nare projected to be exposed to physical water scarcity at 2degC and 4degC \r\nglobal warming levels (GWL), respectively (low confidence). {Box.4.1; \r\n4.4.1, 4.4.3, 4.4.5, 4.6.1}"


id: 8393c56d91c23c224ffdc58bad324b13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18236
content:
"Projected increases in hydrological extremes pose increasing risks, with \r\na potential doubling of flood risk between 1.5degC and 3degC of warming \r\nand an estimated 120-400% increase in population at risk of river \r\nflooding at 2degC and 4degC, respectively. Projected losses include a 1.2- to \r\n1.8-fold increase in GDP loss due to flooding between 1.5degC and 2degC \r\nwarming (medium confidence). {4.4.3, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, 4.5.6, 4.6.1, 4.7.2}"


id: 3c809fc27d9abd5d3810cfdef2d63b49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6884
content:
"By 2100, one third of the 56 large-scale glacierised catchments are \r\nprojected to experience a mean annual runoff decline by over 10%, \r\nwith the most significant reductions in central Asia and the Andes (low \r\nconfidence). Expected impacts may be felt by roughly 1.5 billion people \r\nwho are projected to critically depend on runoff from the mountains by \r\nthe mid-21st century (RCP6.0 scenario). {4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.5.8}"


id: 4c3774304367b5ad3cd54c3df10b0150
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9415
content:
"Over large areas of northern South America, the Mediterranean, \r\nwestern China and high latitudes in North America and Eurasia, extreme \r\nagricultural droughts are projected to be at least twice as likely at \r\n1.5degC global warming, 150 to 200% more likely at 2degC warming, and \r\nover 200% at 4degC (medium confidence). Due to the combined effects \r\nof water and temperature changes, risks to agricultural yields could \r\nbe three times higher at 3degC compared to 2degC (medium confidence). \r\n{4.5.1, 4.6.1}"


id: 318d8d746868a9f2b66bb86eacd9ee0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5207
content:
"By 2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected \r\nin 42-79% of the world's watersheds, causing negative impacts on \r\nfreshwater ecosystems (medium confidence). Modified streamflow is \r\nalso projected to affect inflows to urban storage reservoirs and increase \r\nthe vulnerability of urban water services to hydro-meteorological \r\nextremes, particularly in less developed countries (high confidence). \r\n{4.4.6, 4.5.4, 4.4.5}"


id: bb74a35833f9fee7e2b1b56a29f432f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27052
content:
"In Mediterranean parts of Europe, hydropower potential reductions of \r\nup to 40% are projected under 3degC warming, while declines below \r\n10% and 5% are projected under 2degC and 1.5degC warming levels, \r\nrespectively."


id: 47eee2b9d03284bbda376f6d8d3a84a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8689
content:
"Climate-induced hydrological changes are projected to increase \r\nmigration in the last half of the century, with an almost seven-fold \r\nincrease in asylum seekers to the European Union (EU) for RP4.5 \r\ncompared to RCP2.6. The number of internally displaced people in sub\u0002Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America increased almost five \r\ntimes for RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6 (low confidence). {4.5.7}"


id: 175287b19c49b0a604469397c9d3bfea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1177
content:
"Future water-related impacts of climate change on various sectors of \r\nthe economy are projected to lower global gross domestic product \r\n(GDP) (ranging from 0.49% of GDP by mid-century (SSP3) to less than \r\n0.1% (RCP8.5, SSP5), with higher projected losses expected in low\u0002and middle-income countries (medium confidence). {4.7.5}"


id: 86735681d4d07969dedba73e67bf2ccf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18694
content:
"Drought and flood risks and societal damages are projected \r\nto increase with every degree of global warming (medium \r\nconfidence). {4.4.4, 4.4.5, 4.4.7, 4.5.1, 4.5.2}"


id: 7b018a267ca3b504813c04f7a74b6f76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16946
content:
"Observed water adaptation responses have multiple benefits \r\n(high confidence), yet evidence of effectiveness of adaptation \r\nin reducing climate risks is not clear due to methodological \r\nchallenges (medium confidence). {4.6, 4.7.1, 4.7.3}"


id: 88c2acdbfbb04bfd163671bfb0566965
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19053
content:
"Drought risks are projected to increase over the 21st century in many \r\nregions (very high confidence), increasing economy-wide risks (high \r\nconfidence). With RCP6.0 and SSP2, the global population exposed \r\nto extreme-to-exceptional total water storage drought is projected to \r\nincrease from 3% to 8% over the 21st century (medium confidence). \r\n{4.4.5}"


id: 8509bd91b6a7ec73d38ea64c42eefa36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18451
content:
"A large share of adaptation interventions (~60%) are shaped in \r\nresponse to water-related hazards (high confidence) and involve \r\nwater interventions (irrigation, rainwater harvesting, soil moisture \r\nconservation). Adaptation responses in developing countries tend to \r\nbe autonomous, incremental and focused on managing water-related \r\nrisks in agriculture. In contrast, responses are more policy-oriented and \r\nurban-focused in developed countries (high confidence). {4.6.2, box \r\n4.3, 4.6.5, 4.7.1, 4.7.2}"


id: d5bbd74c66c7dba49d5cbfba70018c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31146
content:
"The projected increase in precipitation intensity (high confidence) will \r\nincrease rain-generated local flooding (medium confidence). Direct \r\nflood damages are projected to increase by four to five times at 4degC \r\ncompared to 1.5degC (medium confidence). {Box  4.1, 4.4.1, 4.4.1.1, \r\n4.4.4, 4.5.4, 4.5.5}"


id: a29d5d3b6e1ebeb2ca3702534e5a52ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23147
content:
"Irrigation helps stabilise and increase crop yields and is often a \r\npreferred strategy for farmers and policymakers for risk reduction, but \r\nirrigation is also associated with a range of adverse outcomes, including \r\ngroundwater over-extraction (medium confidence). In addition, large\u0002scale irrigation also affects local to regional climates, both in terms of \r\ntemperature and precipitation change (high confidence). {4.2.6, 4.6.2, \r\nBox. 4.2}."


id: 5eeb03777720d5984c839458d4e2d55c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12478
content:
"At 4degC global warming, by the end of the century, approximately 10% \r\nof the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing \r\nhigh extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, \r\naffecting roughly over 2.1 billion people (medium confidence). {4.4.3} \r\nThe increase in extreme events is projected to compromise the efficacy "


id: b50626af6febb049aa85f4ac04a8294b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26013
content:
"A common set of enabling principles underpinned by strong \r\npolitical support can help meet the triple goals of water \r\nsecurity, sustainable and climate resilient development (high \r\nconfidence). {4.8, 4.8.3, 4.8.4., 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 4.8.7}"


id: 1593119927d17cfadca2e5b917427558
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 910
content:
"Water adaptation measures tend to have positive economic outcomes \r\nin developing countries and positive environmental outcomes in \r\ndeveloped countries (high confidence). Roughly one third and \r\none fourth of case studies on water adaptation also documents \r\nmaladaptation and co-benefits, respectively (high confidence). A \r\nsignificant knowledge gap remains in knowing if observed adaptation \r\nbenefits also translate to climate risk reduction, if so, by how much \r\nand under what conditions (medium confidence). {4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.4}"


id: f0f4fd0ec05c4af21d4b760299934e72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35402
content:
"Many countries and social groups most threatened by climate \r\nchange have contributed the least to the problem and do not have \r\nthe adequate resources to adapt (high confidence). Water adaptation \r\npolicies enabled through ethical co-production between holders of \r\nIndigenous knowledge, local knowledge and technical knowledge \r\n(medium confidence), through cooperation and coordinated actions \r\namong multiple actors, including women and all marginalised groups, \r\nat various levels of governance (medium confidence) is needed for \r\neffective transitions towards climate resilient development. {4.8, 4.8.3, \r\n4.8.4, 4.8.5, 4.8.6}"


id: 2e19a227ebaf7e4b96dd8809709728c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4694
content:
"Future projected adaptations are effective in reducing risks \r\nto a varying extent (medium confidence), but effectiveness \r\nfalls sharply beyond 2degC, emphasizing the need for limiting \r\nwarming to 1.5degC (high confidence). {4.6, 4.7.2, 4.7.3}"


id: 820767b26c8d3fd536c5df268e3f8b1d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17977
content:
"Adaptations that are beneficial now (e.g., crop- and water-related \r\nones) are also projected to effectively reduce specific future risks to \r\na moderate to a large extent (medium confidence). However, residual \r\nimpacts remain for some options and regions at all levels of warming, \r\nand the overall effectiveness decreases at higher warming levels (high \r\nconfidence), further emphasizing the need for limiting warming to \r\n1.5degC. {Box 4.2, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.3, 4.7.4}"


id: f5b478fbbe8fb76fbb25315d21048a83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36171
content:
"At warming levels beyond 1.5degC, the potential to reach biophysical \r\nlimits to adaptation due to limited water resources are reported for \r\nsmall islands (medium confidence) and regions dependent on glaciers \r\nand snowmelt (medium confidence). {4.7.4}"


id: 90c1b92691281a551c78a3bd9f4080f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20316
content:
"Water security is critical for meeting Sustainable Development \r\nGoals (SDGs) and systems transitions needed for climate \r\nresilient development, yet many mitigation measures have \r\na high water footprint which can compromise SDGs and \r\nadaptation outcomes (high confidence). {4.1, Box 4.4, 4.6, \r\n4.6.2, 4.6.3, 4.7, 4.7.1, 4.7.4, 4.7.5.7}"


id: cde2d8d629f1abac48c725d1fa2689db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29910
content:
"Water features prominently in nationally determined contributions \r\n(NDCs) and national adaptation plans (NAPs) of most countries. SDGs \r\ncannot be met without adequate and safe water (high confidence), \r\nand water is fundamental to all systems transition (high confidence). \r\n{4.1, 4.7, 4.7.1, 4.8, 4.8.7}"


id: 6fa20e1394f0fcd0c4222ad6e287b1a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15190
content:
"Water garners a significant share of public and private adaptation funds \r\n(high confidence). However, barriers remain for low-income countries \r\nto access funds (medium confidence), and there is insufficient evidence \r\non benefits for marginalised groups (medium confidence). {4.8.2}"


id: e9f65d02823dbe57b4fc74d699295cd5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34307
content:
"Many mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio\u0002energy and afforestation and reforestation, can have a high-water \r\nfootprint (high confidence). The water intensity of mitigation must \r\nbe managed in socially and politically acceptable ways to increase \r\nsynergies with SDGs, improve water security and reduce trade-offs \r\nwith adaptation (medium confidence). {4.7.6}"


id: e8cfec0186f8b3d14ad5a9a5b698ded1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34141
content:
"There are at least four reasons for the centrality of water security in \r\nadapting to, and mitigating climate change."


id: 5bc8eacbd52bd23a1bf1c78cf97f3b2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11955
content:
"Finally, while limiting global warming to 1.5degC would minimise the \r\nincrease in risks in the various water use sectors and keep adaptation \r\neffective, many mitigation measures can potentially impact future \r\nwater security. For example, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage \r\n(BECCS) and afforestation and reforestation can have a considerable \r\nwater footprint if done at inappropriate locations (Section 4.7.6, see \r\nalso Canadell et  al., 2021). Therefore, minimising the risks to water \r\nsecurity from climate change will require a full-systems view that \r\nconsiders the direct impacts of mitigation measures on water resources \r\nand their indirect effect via limiting climate change (high confidence)."


id: edef790c1e7de6c212742443e5c9977c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34907
content:
"The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014) \r\nconcluded that for each degree of global warming, approximately 7% \r\nof the global population, under a scenario of moderate population \r\ngrowth, was projected to be exposed to a decrease of renewable water \r\nresources of at least 20%. In addition, AR5 reported negative impacts on \r\nstreamflow volumes, its seasonality (specifically in cryospheric zones), \r\na decline in raw water quality (medium evidence, high agreement) and \r\nprojected reduction in renewable surface water and groundwater in \r\nmost dry tropical regions. AR5 projected an increase in meteorological, \r\nagricultural and hydrological droughts in dry regions (medium \r\nconfidence) (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014)."


id: ad37e46631d8d9edfe8c419030f29cb4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24794
content:
"The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5) assessed that \r\nlimiting global warming to 1.5degC is expected to substantially reduce \r\nthe probability of extreme droughts, precipitation deficits and risks \r\nassociated with water availability in some regions (medium confidence). \r\nOn the other hand, higher risks to natural and human systems in a 2.0degC \r\nworld would mean increased vulnerability for the poor, showing that \r\nsocioeconomic drivers are expected to have a more significant influence \r\non water-related risks and vulnerabilities than changes in climate alone \r\n(medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: 5b3b68fe1d3e563633fc830740491de7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11859
content:
"Definitions of water scarcity have evolved to take account of a broader set of factors. For example, physical water scarcity indicates that \r\nan insufficient quantity of water is available to meet requirements. A commonly used measure of physical water scarcity is the Falkenmark \r\nindex which measures the amount of renewable freshwater available per capita (Falkenmark et al., 1989; White et al., 2014). However, \r\nthe Falkenmark index is now regarded as an incomplete measure, as it does not account for water needed for non-human needs (as \r\nquantified with EFRs). Therefore, EFRs have begun to be incorporated in recent water scarcity assessments (Liu et al., 2016; Liu et al., \r\n2017b). Quality-induced water scarcity is an additional factor beginning to be considered (Liu and Zhao, 2020) ."


id: 9d5dfdec5dd05fcab1eb75d2149bc386
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22285
content:
"Water demand is projected to change as a direct result of socioeconomic changes. For example, the global water demand for domestic, \r\nindustrial and agricultural uses, at present about 4600 km3 yr-1, is projected to increase by 20-30% by 2050 (Greve et  al., 2018), \r\ndepending on the socioeconomic scenario. Changes in water availability and demand have been projected in several studies using climate \r\nmodels and socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes, 2014; Gosling and Arnell, 2016; Greve et al., 2018; Koutroulis et al., \r\n2019). In such studies, the projected changes in water availability arise from differences in precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). \r\nHowever, both precipitation and evapotranspiration are also subject to very high uncertainty in key processes such as regional climate \r\nchange patterns (Uhe et al., 2021) and the influence of vegetation responses to elevated CO2 on transpiration (Betts et al., 2015)."


id: da183a10caa7ceab8cf7fd3b4055235b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31840
content:
"Human factors are projected to be the dominant driver of future water scarcity on a global scale (Graham et al., 2020a). However, at \r\nregional scales, high uncertainty in climate changes means that reduced water availability is more likely than not in many major river \r\nbasins and remains a risk in most basins even where the central estimate is for increased water availability due to climate change \r\n(Figure  4.16). Such substantial uncertainties in projected water scarcity are crucial factors causing water management policies and \r\nplanning challenges in the future. Therefore, locations projected to see significant increases in water scarcity with large uncertainty can \r\nbe considered to be subject to the highest challenges for water management policy (Figure Box 4.1.1b; Greve et al., 2018)."


id: 5571152e4260c268fe4bb6a48171742c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10917
content:
"Unlike physical water scarcity, water security or insecurity cannot be quantified in absolute terms. However, relative levels of water \r\nsecurity in different places can be compared using metrics representing critical aspects of security (Gain et al., 2016; Young et al., 2019), \r\nideally with thresholds for secure/insecure compared with local experience to assess validity (Young et al., 2019)."


id: 3f53d8a640dc2a18063694599581b619
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7351
content:
"In contrast, some areas with high physical water scarcity, such as some parts of the USA, Australia and southern Europe, show relatively \r\nhigh water security levels due to good governance, safety/quality and accessibility. Nevertheless, marginalised groups such as Indigenous \r\nPeoples experience reduced access to water even within regions in the Global North. For example, in both Canada and the USA, many \r\nIndigenous Peoples living on reserves lack access to piped water (Collins et al., 2017; Hanrahan, 2017; Marshall et al., 2018) and (or) are \r\non boil water advisories (Patrick et al., 2019). In Australia, 25-40% of Aboriginal people live in remote rural areas with poor access to \r\nclean water (Bowles, 2015; NCCARF, 2018)."


id: 40be76b53397bdfeb395603d1be23b10
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7564
content:
"The discrepancy between physical water scarcity and overall water insecurity is a function of socioeconomic vulnerabilities and governance \r\ngaps. Therefore, improving societal aspects of water management will be key in adapting to climate change-driven increases in water \r\nscarcity in the future (high confidence)."


id: ec88a97d8d66d219df59faee70a59f46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34692
content:
"The Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate \r\n(SROCC) confirmed findings from AR5, with robust evidence of \r\ndeclines in snow cover and negative mass balance in most glaciers \r\nglobally. Glacier melting seriously threatens water supply to mountain \r\ncommunities and millions living downstream through water shortages, \r\njeopardising hydropower generation, irrigation and urban water uses \r\n(Hock et al., 2019b). Additionally, Arctic hydrology will be affected by \r\npermafrost changes, negatively impacting Arctic communities' health \r\nand cultural identity (Meredith et al., 2019)."


id: 6880922ba62d512540a6d031b5eaffae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14032
content:
"irrigation techniques (e.g., drip irrigation) and moisture conservation \r\n(e.g., rainwater harvesting using indigenous and local practices) could \r\nincrease farmers' adaptive capacity (high confidence) (Mirzabaev \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 9e9eb3367996b44de6671e287548686b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22494
content:
"The Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) stated \r\nthat groundwater over-extraction for irrigation is causing depletion \r\nof groundwater storage (high confidence). The report also noted \r\nthat precipitation changes, coupled with human drivers, will have \r\na role in causing desertification, and water-driven soil erosion is \r\nprojected to increase due to climate change (medium confidence). \r\nThe population vulnerable to impacts related to water is projected \r\nto increase progressively at 1.5degC, 2degC and 3degC of global warming, \r\nwith half of those impacted residing in South Asia, followed by \r\nCentral Asia, West Africa and East Asia. SRCCL stated that improved "


id: 46cc0f6f5eb10f9a7599654a1205e819
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8524
content:
"needed to avert the manifestation of climate change in all components \r\nof the global water cycle.\r\n4.1.2 "


id: 73b7aa394c7c80883af65792a5603a30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15822
content:
"Building on these previous reports, this chapter advances understanding \r\nclimate change-induced hydrological changes and their societal \r\nimpacts and risk in several key ways."


id: 6af156a756eeed09e37fc3b81d6b3799
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14447
content:
"The water cycle is affected by both climatic and non-climatic factors \r\n(Douville et  al., 2021). Radiative forcing by changes in greenhouse \r\ngas (GHG) concentrations, aerosols and surface albedo drives global \r\nand regional changes in evaporation and precipitation (Douville et al., \r\n2021). A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, increasing global \r\nand regional mean precipitation, and more extreme precipitation \r\n(Allan et  al., 2014; Giorgi et  al., 2019; Allan et  al., 2020). Regional \r\nprecipitation responses vary according to changes in atmospheric \r\ncirculation. Geographical variation in aerosols drives changes in \r\natmospheric circulation, affecting precipitation patterns such as the \r\nAsian monsoon (Ganguly et al., 2012; Singh et al., 2019). (Section 4.2.1)"


id: acf1fa6fc18f7b8459dd5b69d7a4e9a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24755
content:
"First, since AR5, the methodology of climate change impact studies \r\nhas advanced and these methodological advances are described in \r\nSM4.1. AR6 uses new projections (CMIP6) based on the SSPs and other \r\nscenarios, and we assess those results in this chapter alongside those \r\nusing other projections and scenarios."


id: 9695badfe9e1bc1437a2a1edf0008760
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21211
content:
"Warming increases glacier melt and is expected to decrease snowfall \r\nglobally and lead to shorter snow seasons with earlier but less rapid \r\nsnowmelt. It can also lead to local increases in snowfall intensity (Allan \r\net  al., 2020). These changes affect the seasonality of river flows in \r\nglacier-fed or snow-dominated basins. (Section 4.2.2)"


id: 11bf3347de124a125877b0b7e493d379
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 287
content:
"Rising atmospheric CO2 generally decreases plant transpiration, \r\naffecting soil moisture, runoff, stream flows, the return of moisture \r\nto the atmosphere and surface temperature (Skinner et  al., 2017). \r\nHowever, in some regions, these can be offset by increased leaf area \r\n('global greening') driven by elevated CO2, land use change, nitrogen \r\ndeposition and effects of climate change itself (Zhu Z. et al., 2016; Zeng \r\nZ. et al., 2018). Increased ozone can impact plant functioning, reducing \r\ntranspiration (Arnold et al., 2018). (Section 4.2.1)"


id: bdff54fe8e2a2015be9a8d962ea3ccd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27450
content:
"Direct human interventions include abstraction of surface water and \r\ngroundwater for drinking, irrigation and other freshwater uses, as well \r\nas streamflow impoundment behind dams and large-scale inter-basin \r\ntransfers (Zhao et al., 2015; Donchyts et al., 2016; McMillan et al., 2016; \r\nShumilova et al., 2018). The consequences of these interventions are \r\nsubstantial and are discussed below briefly. In addition, these direct \r\nhuman interventions can change due to various societal and economic \r\nfactors, including changes in land use and urbanisation (Sections 4.3 \r\nand 4.5)."


id: f448a34da35eea75e3da119ea7143410
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35940
content:
"Finally, grounded in the AR6 goal to expand the solution space, this \r\nchapter advances the understanding of adaptation in the water sector \r\nsince AR5 by deploying a meta-analysis of adaptation measures. \r\nThe meta-analysis focuses on both current adaptation responses \r\n(Section  4.7.1) and future projected adaptation responses, which \r\nhave been modelled (Section  4.7.2). The meta-review assesses the \r\noutcomes of current adaptation responses and effectiveness of \r\nfuture projected adaptations in reducing climate and associated \r\nrisks. Studies derived from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative \r\n(GAMI) database (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a) (see Chapter 16) were \r\ncoded systematically following a meta-review protocol developed \r\nspecifically for this assessment (Mukherji et al., 2021; SM4.2). A similar \r\nmeta-review protocol was also developed to assess effectiveness of \r\nadaptations to reduce projected climate risks (Section 4.7.2; SM4.2)."


id: 3d364252ad8dd55d051c963501752e8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6995
content:
"Irrigation can reduce river flows and groundwater levels via abstraction \r\nand increase local precipitation (Alter et  al., 2015; Cook et  al., 2015), \r\nalter precipitation remotely through moisture advection (de Vrese et al., \r\n2016) and change the timing of monsoons through land-sea temperature \r\ncontrasts (Guimberteau et al., 2012) (Box 4.3). Land cover change affects \r\nET and precipitation (Li et al., 2015; Douville et al., 2021), interception \r\nof precipitation by vegetation canopies (de Jong and Jetten, 2007), \r\ninfiltration (Sun et al., 2018a) and runoff (Bosmans et al., 2017). Land \r\ncover impacts on the hydrological cycle are of similar magnitude as \r\nhuman water use (Bosmans et al., 2017)."


id: e05dd77180decdae0bdd0a2a48505f64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32798
content:
"Urbanisation decreases land surface permeability (Choi et al., 2016), \r\nwhich can increase fast runoff and flooding risks and reduce local \r\nrainfall by decreasing moisture return to the atmosphere (Wang et al., \r\n2018). But urbanisation can also increase the sensible heat flux driving \r\ngreater or more extreme precipitation (Kusaka et  al., 2014; Niyogi \r\net al., 2017). (Section 4.3.4)"


id: b3cd202f13192a78a02c8813db7c91c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25805
content:
"In summary, radiative forcing by GHG and aerosols drives changes in \r\nET and precipitation at global and regional scales, and the associated \r\nwarming shifts the balance between frozen and liquid water (high \r\nconfidence). Rising CO2 concentrations also affect the water cycle via \r\nplant physiological responses affecting transpiration, including via \r\nreduced stomatal opening and increased leaf area (high confidence \r\nregarding the individual processes; medium confidence regarding \r\ntheir net impact). Land cover changes and urbanisation affect both \r\nthe climate and land hydrology by altering the exchanges of energy \r\nand moisture between the atmosphere and surface (high confidence) \r\nand changing the permeability of the land surface. Direct human \r\ninterventions in river systems and groundwater systems are non\u0002climatic drivers with substantial impacts on the water cycle (high \r\nconfidence) and have the potential to change as part of societal \r\nresponses to climate change (Figure 4.2)."


id: bcf055cfec0f6486ac2dbc2576fc72db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27289
content:
"All components of the global water cycle have been modified due to \r\nclimate change in recent decades (high confidence) (Douville et  al., \r\n2021), with hundreds of millions of people now regularly experiencing \r\nhydrological conditions that were previously unfamiliar (Sections 4.2.1.1, \r\n4.2.4, 4.2.5). Extensive records from weather stations, satellites and \r\nradar clearly show that precipitation patterns have shifted worldwide. \r\nThree major shifts documented are (a) some regions receiving more "


id: 7ea52ec11c1f5b3153f73699c69fc13c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17491
content:
"(a) Percentage changes in annual mean precipitation over land (1891-2019) per degC global warming in the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) v2020 data set \r\n(Schneider et al., 2017; Schneider et al., 2020). Green shows increasing precipitation; orange shows decreasing precipitation."


id: cd5b47323376fa4c016e0f88f27b0b49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29853
content:
"(b) Levels of unfamiliarity of wetter and drier climates, classified in terms of the ratio of the signal S of change to the noise N of variability, where the latter is defined as one \r\nstandard deviation in annual data with the trend removed, that is, occurs approximately one in 6 years. Grey regions are either unobserved (oceans) or deserts (<250 mm year-1). \r\nStippling indicates where the signal of change is not significant. See Hawkins et al. (2020) for further details."


id: 1ff7dc455ccd35ebcf164e029f7f019b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2470
content:
"(i) Population densities per grid box where the trend in CDD is significantly different from zero. Stipples in (h) and (i) show where HadEX3 data is available. Population data in (c), \r\n(h) and (i) are for 2020 from CIESIN (2018a; 2018b)."


id: 491662a8d07a3144c3d76eb8d342ad92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8885
content:
"Notably, many regions have seen increased precipitation for part of \r\nthe year and decreased precipitation at other times (high confidence) \r\n(Figure  4.3d,e), leading to small changes in the annual mean \r\nprecipitation. Therefore, the numbers of people seeing unfamiliar \r\nseasonal precipitation levels are expected to be higher than those \r\nquoted above for unfamiliar annual precipitation changes (medium \r\nconfidence). Still, quantified analysis of this is not yet available."


id: 8bd0f69d067ceabbbc6543bc04f43246
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19519
content:
"In summary, annual mean precipitation is increasing in many regions \r\nworldwide and decreasing over a smaller area, particularly in the \r\ntropics. Nearly half a billion people live in areas with historically \r\nunfamiliar wet conditions, and over 160  million in areas with \r\nhistorically unfamiliar dry conditions (medium confidence). Over \r\n700  million people experience heavy precipitation significantly \r\nmore intense than in the 1950s, but less than 90 million experience \r\ndecreased heavy precipitation. Compared to the 1950s, 711 million \r\npeople now experience longer dry spells and 404 million experience \r\nshorter dry spells."


id: e675c8a76c1968bc72a516068de1f497
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33744
content:
"Table 4.1 |  Trends in global evapotranspiration for different periods between 1981-1982 and 2009-2013."


id: 4c2c818544cb578c99a5de971328b07e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9406
content:
"Ukkola et al., 2015). In dry regions, ET may increase due to increasing \r\nLAI (Huang M et  al., 2015), but in some densely vegetated regions, \r\nthe stomatal effect dominates (Mao et  al., 2015). Reductions in \r\ntranspiration due to rising CO2 concentrations may also be offset by a \r\nlonger growing season (Frank et al., 2015; Mankin et al., 2019). Other \r\nfactors modulate the transpiration effect both temporally and spatially, \r\nfor example, additional vegetation structural changes (Kim et al., 2015; \r\nDomec et al., 2017), vegetation disturbance and age (Donohue et al., \r\n2017) and species (Bernacchi and VanLoocke, 2015)."


id: e344d7331c26d3cc2031a685b771826f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33249
content:
"WGI (Douville et al., 2021) conclude with high confidence that global \r\nterrestrial annual ET has increased since the early 1980s, driven by \r\nboth increasing atmospheric water demand and vegetation greening \r\n(medium confidence), and can be partly attributed to anthropogenic \r\nforcing (high confidence)."


id: 79df6a1e5f2d11ef0a62a17655a60b37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16748
content:
"Regional changes in ET depend on changes in both the climate and the \r\nproperties of the land surface and ecosystems. The latter also responds \r\nto changes in climate and atmospheric composition. For example, a \r\nwarming climate increases evaporative demand (Huang M et al., 2015; \r\nBerg et al., 2016), although seasonal rainfall totals (Hovenden et al., \r\n2014) affect the amount of soil moisture available for evaporation. \r\nSince transpiration accounts for much of the land-atmosphere water \r\nflux (Good et al., 2015), vegetation changes also play a significant role \r\nin overall changes in ET."


id: 26d31757a588c8339648c291d5a726b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3501
content:
"With higher CO2, the increase in evaporative demand can, to \r\nsome extent, be counteracted by reduced stomatal conductance \r\n('physiological effect'), which reduces transpiration and increases \r\nleaf-level water use efficiency (WUE), but is highly species-specific. \r\nThere is evidence for recent increases in leaf-scale WUE from tree \r\nrings (14 +- 10%, broadleaf to 22 +- 6%, evergreen over the 20th \r\ncentury: (Frank et al., 2015)), carbon isotopes (30 to 35% increase \r\nin 150  years: (van der Sleen et  al., 2014)), and satellite-based \r\nmeasurements (1982-2008) combined with data-driven models \r\n(Huang M et  al., 2015). WUE is also affected by aerodynamic \r\nconductance (Knauer et al., 2017), nutrient limitation (Medlyn et al., \r\n2015; Donohue et al., 2017), soil moisture availability (Bernacchi and \r\nVanLoocke, 2015; Medlyn et  al., 2015), and ozone pollution (King \r\net al., 2013; Frank et al., 2015)."


id: d800ec9b453424aaf159246936817acc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31512
content:
"The contribution of changes in WUE to observed changes in ET is a \r\nkey knowledge gap. WGI assigned low confidence to this contribution. \r\nEstimating large-scale transpiration response to increased CO2 based \r\non leaf-level responses of WUE is not straightforward (Bernacchi and \r\nVanLoocke, 2015; Medlyn et al., 2015; Tor-ngern et al., 2015; Walker \r\net  al., 2015; Kala et  al., 2016) and new methodological approaches \r\nare needed."


id: f765fb94b726893fc13c40bb5fecde6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36436
content:
"Higher CO2 also increases photosynthesis rates, though this may not \r\nbe maintained in the longer term (Warren et al., 2015; Adams et al., \r\n2020), particularly where temperatures exceed the thermal maxima for \r\nphotosynthesis (Duffy et  al., 2021). Higher photosynthesis increases \r\nleaf area index (LAI) ('structural effect') and therefore transpiration; 55 \r\n+- 25% of observed increases in ET (1980-2011) have been attributed \r\nto LAI change (Zeng Z. et al., 2018). Increases in ET driven by increased \r\nLAI (from satellite observations 1982-2012) are estimated at 0.32 +- \r\n0.07 mm month-1 per decade, generating a climate forcing of -0.31 \r\nWm-2\r\n per decade (Zeng et al., 2017)."


id: c14e6f79a379ac59a6f647afccce3f11
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27998
content:
"In summary, there is high confidence that ET increased by between \r\napproximately 0.5 and 1.5 mm yr-2 between the 1980s and early 2010s \r\ndue to warming-induced increased atmospheric demand worldwide \r\nand greening of vegetation in many regions. Increases in many areas are \r\n10 mm yr-2 or more, but in some tropical land areas, ET has decreased \r\nby 10 mm yr-2. Plant stomatal responses to rising CO2 concentrations \r\nmay play a role, but there is low confidence in quantifying this. Changes \r\nin land cover and irrigation have also changed regional ET (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 6aa9aa31ea5f538822c9031cece72194
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14394
content:
"Overall regional transpiration change depends on the balance between \r\nthe physiological and structural effects (e.g., Tor-ngern et  al., 2015; "


id: 11e3bcd24705f934576421c54741e246
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 313
content:
"Figure 4.4 |  Global patterns of changes in surface soil moisture and people in regions with significant changes.\r\n(a) Percentage changes in annual mean surface soil moisture (0-5 cm) for 1978-2018 from satellite remote sensing: the \"COMBINED\" product of European Space Agency Climate \r\nChange Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM v03.2), which blends data products from two microwave instruments, a scatterometer measuring radar backscattering and a radiometer \r\nmeasuring brightness temperature (van der Schalie et al., 2021)."


id: 4a4f59df05e23ed42aacf70c6c5f8e7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9099
content:
"tion density in 0.25deg grid boxes with trends of significantly increasing and decreasing soil moisture from (a). Stippling indicates where changes are not significant."


id: c66b8fdc137366af6edce932d56f06cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28791
content:
"are more complex than the 'wet get wetter, dry get drier' (WGWDGD) \r\nparadigm. This is also supported by remote sensing data, with ESA \r\nCCI data for 1979-2013 showing only 15% of land following the \r\nWGWDGD paradigm for soil moisture (Feng and Zhang, 2015). Defining \r\narid, humid and transitional areas according to precipitation and \r\ntemperature regimes, all three classes of regions see more widespread \r\ntrends of declining soil moisture than increasing soil moisture (Feng \r\nand Zhang, 2015). In the ESA CCI product, increasing soil moisture \r\ntrends are mainly seen in humid or transitional areas and are rare in \r\narid regions (Table 4.2)"


id: ddd7806c47a4240c90a4a92ed752e959
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32397
content:
"AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) find that a global trend in soil moisture \r\nis detectable in a reanalysis and is attributable to GHG forcing, and \r\nconclude that it is very likely that anthropogenic climate change \r\naffected global patterns of soil moisture over the 20th century."


id: 63bf8d30dd5fd0db15b950da55d18376
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13264
content:
"Changes in soil moisture and land surface aridity are due to changes \r\nin the relative balance of precipitation and ET. Soil moisture is also \r\naffected by irrigation. Regional trends derived from satellite remote \r\nsensing products show increases and decreases in annual surface soil \r\nmoisture of up to 20% or more between the late 1970s and late 2010s \r\n(Figure  4.4). For example, using the ESA CCI SM v03.2 COMBINED \r\nproducts (van der Schalie et al., 2021), approximately 0.9 billion people \r\nlive in regions with decreasing surface soil moisture, and 2.1  billion \r\npeople live in regions with increasing surface soil moisture (Figure 4.4, \r\nb). However, there are disagreements between data sets on the direction \r\nof change in some regions (Seneviratne et al., 2010; Feng and Zhang, \r\n2015; Feng, 2016), so quantification is subject to low confidence."


id: a143aa364c995cce6a9a4d370b55c49b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22933
content:
"Reconstructions of historical soil moisture trends with data-driven \r\nmodels and process-based land surface models indicate drier dry \r\nseasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes, including Europe, \r\nwestern North America, northern Asia, southern South America, \r\nAustralia and eastern Africa, consistent with climate model simulations \r\nof changes due to human-induced climate change (Padron et al., 2020). \r\nFurthermore, reduced water availability in the dry season is generally \r\na consequence of increasing ET rather than decreasing precipitation \r\n(Padron et al., 2020)."


id: 75675f8cff887ddf3fe5843b92f2e988
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16055
content:
"Analysis of changes in P-ET estimates for 1948-2005 (Greve et al., \r\n2014) suggests that geographical variations in soil moisture trends \r\nWhile observationally based data for soil moisture are now more widely \r\navailable, regional trends remain uncertain due to disagreements "


id: b2f5071da50060fbf777244fb3525cbf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25669
content:
"confidence) (Zemp et  al., 2015; Zemp et  al., 2019; Hugonnet et  al., \r\n2021) (also see Douville et al. (2021; Fox-Kemper et al. (2021; Gulev \r\net  al. (2021) for more details). Regional estimates of glacier mass \r\nbalance are also mostly negative (Dussaillant et al., 2019; Menounos \r\net al., 2019; Zemp et al., 2019; Douville et al., 2021; Fox-Kemper et al., \r\n2021; Hugonnet et al., 2021), except for West Kunlun, eastern Pamir \r\nand northern Karakoram (Brun et al., 2017; Lin et al., 2017; Berthier \r\nand Brun, 2019). Changes in glacier metrics estimated in post-SROCC \r\npublications are summarised in Figure 4.5."


id: 140c90f0c72c5176114b73225a499cdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 663
content:
"In summary, global mean soil moisture has slightly decreased, but \r\nregional changes vary, with both increases and decreases of 20% \r\nor more in some regions (medium confidence). Drying soil moisture \r\ntrends are more widespread than wetting trends, not only in arid \r\nareas but also in humid and transitional areas (medium confidence). \r\nReduced dry-season water availability is driven mainly by increasing \r\ntranspiration (medium confidence)"


id: 95533abc340cdf050ce8438e0e931a32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20990
content:
"AR5 reported a decrease in snow cover over most of the Northern \r\nHemisphere, decreases in the extent of permafrost and increases in its \r\naverage temperature, and glacier mass loss in most parts of the world \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). SROCC (IPCC, 2019c) stated with very \r\nhigh or high confidence (a) reduction in seasonal snow cover (snow cover \r\nextent decreased by 13.4% per decade for 1967-2018); (b) glacier mass \r\nbudget of all mountain regions (excluding the Canadian and Russian \r\nArctic, Svalbard, Antarctica, Greenland) was 490 +- 100 kg m-2 yr-1 in \r\n2006-2015; (c) warming of permafrost (e.g., permafrost temperatures \r\nincreased by 0.39degC in the Arctic for 2007-2017). Tourism and recreation \r\nactivities have been negatively impacted by declining snow cover, \r\nglaciers and permafrost in high mountains (medium confidence)."


id: fca9937cc0341c2834f276d30ec29a2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37265
content:
"There is high confidence that degradation of the cryospheric components \r\nis negatively affecting terrestrial ecosystems, infrastructure and \r\nsettlements in the high-latitude and high-altitude areas (Fritz et al., 2017; \r\nOliva and Fritz, 2018; Streletskiy et al., 2019). Similarly, communities in \r\nthe north polar regions and the ecosystems on which they depend for \r\ntheir livelihoods are at risk (Mustonen, 2015; Pecl et al., 2017; Mustonen \r\nand Lehtinen, 2020) (Figure 4.6)."


id: ab8c5d0b1d0d1ed1253dabca66ef10a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24510
content:
"During the last two decades, the global glacier mass loss rate exceeded \r\n0.5-meter water equivalent (m w.e.) per year compared to an average \r\nof 0.33 m w.e. yr-1 in 1950-2000. This volume of mass loss is the \r\nhighest since the start of the entire observation period (very high "


id: 54d53bff2106f5b4ae313f264126148
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10802
content:
"In summary, the cryosphere is one of the most sensitive indicators of \r\nclimate change. There is high confidence that cryospheric components "


id: e64417dfd9c4b75695af0a9e74a85463
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33717
content:
"(glaciers, snow, permafrost) are melting or thawing since the end of \r\nthe 20th and beginning of the 21st century. Widespread cryospheric \r\nchanges are affecting humans and ecosystems in mid-to-high latitudes \r\nand the high-mountain regions (high confidence). These changes are \r\nalready impacting irrigation, hydropower, water supply, cultural and \r\nother services provided by the cryosphere, and populations depending \r\non ice, snow and permafrost.\r\n4.2.3 Observed Changes in Streamflow\r\nAR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014) concluded with medium evidence \r\nand high agreement that trends in annual streamflow have generally \r\nfollowed observed changes in regional precipitation and temperature \r\nsince the 1950s. AR6 WGI (Eyring et  al., 2021; Gulev et  al., 2021) \r\n(12.4.5) conclude with medium confidence that anthropogenic climate \r\nchange has altered local and regional streamflow in various parts of \r\nthe world, but with no clear signal in the global mean."


id: da67c483365865de072765ce40bdbfcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31886
content:
"Human Impact: Negative effects\r\non availability and access to \r\nculturally-significant species\r\n(Norton-Smith et al. 2016)"


id: 54a74f9178afe096c8e9ff4ef76c61e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10775
content:
"Human Impact: Trail access\r\n(Ford et al. 2019); decline of culturally \r\nsignificant species\r\n(Cunsolo, et al. 2020)"


id: 82f66930c08d29b38037012e0e21e79d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18133
content:
"Figure 4.6 |  Map of selected observed impacts on cultural water uses of Indigenous Peoples of the cryosphere. Map location is approximate; text boxes provide \r\nnames of the Indigenous Peoples whose cultural water uses have been impacted by climate change; changed climate variable; impact on water; and specific climate impact on \r\ncultural water use (Section 4.3.7)."


id: a00b6ad99b69235e19a4bc88693c7e16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22719
content:
"trends in northern Asia, northern Europe, and northern and eastern \r\nNorth America (Dai, 2016; Gudmundsson et al., 2017; Gudmundsson \r\net al., 2019; Li et al., 2020b; Masseroni et al., 2020). Significant spatial \r\nheterogeneity is also found in streamflow changes at the regional \r\nscale. Significant declines occurred at 11% of stations and significant \r\nincreases at 4% of stations, with most decreases occurring in southern \r\nCanada (Bonsal et al., 2019). An increasing trend (1950-2010) is found \r\nin the northern region, mainly due to climate warming. Mixed trends \r\nare found in other regions."


id: 3e34f1538a3c5f5697b722d3d9748c3a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7158
content:
"precipitation and evaporation (Zang and Liu, 2013; Greve et al., 2014; \r\nHannaford, 2015; Ficklin et  al., 2018), as well as by anthropogenic \r\nforcing (Gudmundsson et al., 2016; 2017; 2021).. Other factors (e.g., \r\nland use change and CO2 effects on vegetation) dominate in some \r\nareas, especially dryland regions (Berghuijs et  al., 2017b). Human \r\nactivities can reduce runoff through water withdrawal and land use \r\nchanges (Zaherpour et  al., 2018; Sun et  al., 2019a; Vicente-Serrano \r\net  al., 2019), and human regulation of streamflows via impounding \r\nreservoirs can also play a major role (Hodgkins et al., 2019)."


id: c1e01db66095bbdb92e4749fae618e1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28083
content:
"records in several regions, particularly Africa, South and East Asia (Dai, \r\n2016). When observed data are scarce, hydrological models are used \r\nto detect trends in runoff and streamflow. However, simulations of \r\nstreamflow can differ between models depending on their structures \r\nand parametrisations, contributing to uncertainties for trend detection, \r\nespecially when considering human intervention (e.g., Caillouet et al., \r\n2017; Hattermann et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2019b; Telteu et al., 2021)."


id: 8edcdc1a0ccd40ecb0d8d0258b0291d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20001
content:
"In summary, both climate change and human activities influence the \r\nmagnitude and direction of change in runoff and streamflow. There are no \r\nclear trends of changing streamflow on the global level. However, trends \r\nemerge on a regional level (a general increasing trend in the northern \r\nhigher latitude region and mixed trend in the rest of the word) (high \r\nconfidence). Climatic factors contribute to these trends in most basins \r\n(high confidence). They are more important than direct human influence \r\nin a larger share of major global basins (medium confidence), although \r\ndirect human influence dominates in some (medium confidence). \r\nOverall, anthropogenic climate change is attributed as a driver to the \r\nglobal pattern of change in streamflow (medium confidence)."


id: 54e76e03061366326ad14493628d6270
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10815
content:
"In contrast, in southwestern Europe, land cover changes and increased \r\nwater demands by irrigation are the main drivers of streamflow \r\nreduction (Vicente-Serrano et  al., 2019) (Section  4.3.1). In addition, \r\nthe human intervention also contributed to the increase of the winter \r\nstreamflow due to the release of water in the winter season for \r\nhydropower generation in large rivers in the northern regions (Rawlins \r\net al., 2021). In some regions, the impact of human activities on runoff \r\nand streamflow outplays the climate factors, for example, in some \r\ntypical catchments with area near to or less than 15000 km2\r\n in China \r\n(Zhai and Tao, 2017)."


id: 74a025eadf94fba926ff4eeab0ff6318
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15942
content:
"AR6 WGI Chapter 11 (Seneviratne et  al., 2021) assessed with high \r\nconfidence the increase in the extreme precipitation and associated \r\nincrease in the frequency and magnitude of river floods. However, \r\nthere is low confidence in changes in the river flooding regionally, \r\nwhich is strongly dependent upon complex catchment characteristics \r\nand land use patterns. SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) summarised with \r\nhigh confidence that changes in the cryosphere have led to changes in \r\nfrequency, magnitude and location of rain-on-snow floods, snowmelt \r\nfloods and glacier-related floods."


id: f59e9e6547154c510ee37bb633347460
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36166
content:
"Although there are different observational and simulated runoff \r\nand streamflow data sets (e.g., Global Runoff Data Centre, GRDC), \r\nit is still challenging to obtain and update long-term river discharge "


id: f104978d3a10cbfb449bb11c2610dcc5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35415
content:
"Figure 4.7 |  Observed changes in river flows and attribution to externally forced climate change."


id: 199840c2439656028c3dacc7a5879fbc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1501
content:
"(a) Percentage changes in flow in individual rivers 1971 to 2010. Black box outlines show climatic regions with at least 80 gauging stations with almost complete daily \r\nobservations over 1971-2010, using the SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) regions."


id: ebf6518fe61628a3ad3db883eafbaf31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34621
content:
"(b) Left column: observed regional median trends from 1971 to 2010 in SREX regions with at least 80 gauging stations with almost complete daily observations over that period. \r\nMiddle column: trends simulated by eight global hydrological models driven by four CMIP5 Earth System Models, with human water and land use from 1971 to 2020 and the \r\npre-industrial control climate state. Right column: same as the middle column but with ESM-simulated climates from 1971 to 2010 with both anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse \r\ngases, aerosols and land use) and natural external forcings (solar variability and volcanic eruptions). Top row: low flows (annual 10th percentile). Middle row: mean flows. Bottom \r\nrow: high flows (annual 90th percentile). Reproduced from Gudmundsson et al. (2021)."


id: 916a5ff32f206085b32ea48bf6d05b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20413
content:
"Table 4.3 |  Selected major heavy-precipitation events from 2014 to 2021 that led to flooding and their impacts. Studies were selected for presentation based on the availability \r\nof scientific literature with impacts information and do not necessarily represent the most severe events. Impactful events are included even if not found to have a component \r\nattributable to climate change. This is not a systematic assessment of event attributions studies and their physical science conclusions. 'Sign of influence' indicates whether \r\nanthropogenic climate change was found to have made the event more or less likely, and 'mechanism/magnitude of influence' quantifies the change in likelihood and the processes \r\nor quantities involved."


id: 42ba336f562c601245d99f26f063bfee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7887
content:
"(a) Modelled mean global fluvial flood water depth (Tanoue et al., 2016; Tanoue et al., 2021) based on a land surface model and a river and inundation model driven by reanalysis \r\nclimate forcing of five CMIP5 GCMs (metres). The annual maximum daily river water was allocated along elevations, and inundation depth was calculated for each year and \r\naveraged for the target period. "


id: e3f8051a2ca0d3e51c7e96b9895bb067
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33343
content:
"(b) Local flood protection standard (return period) at sub-country scale (Scussolini et al., 2016) based on published reports and documents, websites and personal communications \r\nwith experts. Note that the vulnerability of this map reflects local flood protection such as complex infrastructure and does not fully reflect the other source of vulnerabilities, \r\nincluding exposure."


id: c1847a30c1477928bc8d9db41a06fd68
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28034
content:
"(c) Population distribution per 30 arc second grid cell (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011)."


id: cdc699239e8bf7b0f5188ef78a7b6816
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29896
content:
"(d) Population exposed to flood (number of people where inundation occurs) per 30 arc-second grid cell. Population under inundation depth > 0 m (a) was counted when the \r\nreturn period of annual maximum daily river water exceeds the flood protection standard (c) calculated by the authors. All values are averages for the period 1958-2010 for the \r\npast and 2050-2070 for the future."


id: 13b1fbbf82cbfc6011aeca7bdee24d8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 601
content:
"In snow-dominated regions, 1~10 d earlier spring floods per decade \r\ndue to warmer temperature are reported for the last decades (high \r\nconfidence), such as in Europe (Moran-Tejeda et al., 2014; Kormann \r\net  al., 2015; Matti et  al., 2016; Vormoor et  al., 2016; Bloschl et  al., \r\n2017), the European part of Russia (Frolova et al., 2017a; Frolova et al., \r\n2017b; Kireeva et al., 2020), Canada (Yang L. et al., 2015; Burn et al., \r\n2016; Rokaya et al., 2018) and the USA (Mallakpour and Villarini, 2015; \r\nSolander et al., 2017)."


id: a565e0da41b51ef935615a61954ceb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23589
content:
"There is a knowledge gap in how ice-related floods, including glacier\u0002related and ice-jam floods, respond to ongoing climate change. Despite \r\nthe increase in the number of glacial lake studies (Wang and Zhou, \r\n2017; Harrison et al., 2018; Begam and Sen, 2019; Bolch et al., 2019), \r\nchanges in the frequency of occurrence of glacier-related floods \r\nassociated with climate change remain unclear (medium confidence). \r\nStudies show that the compound occurrence of high surges and high \r\nriver discharge has increased in some regions (WGI Chapter 11), but \r\nfew studies quantify changes and impacts. Increases in precipitation \r\nfrom tropical cyclones (WGI Chapter 11) and associated high tide \r\nare expected to exacerbate coastal flooding. However, more studies \r\nare required to quantify their impacts. In addition, limitations in the \r\nduration of data hinder the assessment of trends in low-likelihood \r\nhigh-impact flooding (WGI BOX 11.2)."


id: 8a4f39718c69974c903e83fc743a8000
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19296
content:
"In summary, the frequency and magnitude of river floods have \r\nchanged in the past several decades with high regional variations \r\n(high confidence). Anthropogenic climate change has increased the \r\nlikelihood of extreme precipitation events and the associated increase \r\nin the frequency and magnitude of river floods (high confidence). There \r\nis high confidence that the warming in the last 40-60 years has led \r\nto a maximum of 10 days earlier spring floods per decade, shifts in \r\ntiming and magnitude of ice-jam floods and changes in frequency and \r\nmagnitude of snowmelt floods."


id: 383ff0dff0b574d7fca637d84e57781b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6219
content:
"Section  4.3.1) (high confidence) and consequent economic impacts \r\n(Table  4.4). For example, drought in India in 2014 was reported to \r\nhave led to an estimated USD 30 billion in losses (Ward and Makhija, \r\n2018). Ecological drought increases the risks of wildfire (Table 4.4). \r\nCascading effects of droughts can include health issues triggered by a \r\nlack of sanitation (Section 4.3.3); can cause human displacements and \r\nloss of social ties, sense of place and cultural identity; and migration \r\nto unsafe settlements (medium confidence) (Serdeczny et al., 2017) \r\n(Section  4.3.7). Between 1970 and 2019, only 7% of all disaster \r\nevents were drought-related, yet they contributed disproportionately \r\nto 34% of disaster-related death, mostly in Africa (WMO, 2021). \r\nNevertheless, IK, TK and LK have increased drought resilience among \r\ncrop and livestock farmers, for example, in South Africa (Muyambo "


id: 81b2bb26f6c0b3387a75adf3061260d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17939
content:
"There are different types of droughts, and they are interconnected in \r\nterms of processes (Douville et  al., 2021). Meteorological droughts\r\n(periods of persistent low precipitation) propagate over time into \r\ndeficits in soil moisture, streamflow and water storage, leading to a \r\nreduction in water supply (hydrological drought). Increased atmospheric \r\nevaporative demand increases plant water stress, leading to agricultural \r\nand ecological drought."


id: 6e339dcdd32afa39e7316e0d7888cbfd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14956
content:
"Hydrological drought can result in shortages of drinking water and \r\ncause substantial economic damages. Agricultural drought threatens \r\nfood production through crop damage and yield decreases (e.g., "


id: 956b89a3922f46d38602328a3b732407
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21006
content:
"(a) Drought hazard computed for the events between 1901 and 2010 by the probability of exceedance the median of global severe precipitation deficits, using precipitation data \r\nfrom the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) for 1901-2010."


id: f0e1a2d120d1eaba4f31ae3714c889a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35393
content:
"(b) Drought vulnerability is derived from an arithmetic composite model combining social, economic and infrastructural factors proposed by the United Nations International \r\nStrategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2004)."


id: 9ad2a2ab998c446f5b5ebc8b7968f0b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21892
content:
"(c) Drought exposure computed at the sub-national level with the non-compensatory Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model (Cook et al., 2014)."


id: 8db313e903ec5ed65ade82a9339227e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19817
content:
"(d) Drought risk based on the above components of hazard, vulnerability and exposure, scored on a scale of 0 (lowest risk) to 1 (highest risk) with the lowest and highest hazard, \r\nexposure and vulnerability (Carrao et al., 2016)."


id: daaedb414e414ffbfa12a7afc7711bee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31933
content:
"et  al., 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021), most attribution studies for \r\nindividual extreme events focus on meteorological (precipitation) \r\ndrought and sometimes also consider temperature anomalies. A \r\ncomplete examination of drought relevant to societal impacts often \r\nrequires consideration of hydrological and agricultural drought, so \r\nextreme event attribution conclusions relating to precipitation alone \r\nmay not fully capture the processes leading to societal effects. There \r\nis, therefore, a critical knowledge gap in the attribution of changes in \r\ndrought indicators more closely related to societal impacts such as soil \r\nmoisture and the availability of fresh water supplies."


id: 1531b0f2d6cb3155c7ec449ece2d6ec2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 848
content:
"et al., 2017), Uganda (Mfitumukiza et al., 2020) and India (Patel et al., \r\n2020) (Section 4.8.4)."


id: 63c0abcae57717f1735adaabf1006978
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13266
content:
"In summary, droughts can have substantial societal impacts (virtually \r\ncertain), and agricultural and ecological drought conditions in particular \r\nhave become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world but \r\nless frequent and severe in some others (high confidence). Drought\u0002induced economic losses relative to GDP are approximately twice as \r\nhigh in lower-income countries compared to higher-income countries, \r\nalthough the gap has narrowed since the 1980s, and at the global \r\nscale there is a decreasing trend of economic vulnerability to drought \r\n(medium confidence). Nevertheless, anthropogenic climate change has \r\ncontributed to the increased likelihood or severity of drought events in \r\nmany parts of the world, causing reduced agricultural yields, drinking \r\nwater shortages for millions of people, increased wildfire risk, loss of \r\nlives of humans and other species and loss of billions of dollars of \r\neconomic damages (medium confidence)."


id: 6fc4928cffdd665ffc3c1910d5854f9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15212
content:
"AR6 WGI (Douville et  al., 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021) found that \r\nincreasing agricultural and ecological droughts trends are more evident \r\nthan increasing trends in meteorological drought in several regions due \r\nto increased evaporative demand. Therefore, WGI concluded with high \r\nconfidence that the increased frequency and the severity of agricultural/\r\necological droughts over the last decades in the Mediterranean and \r\nwestern North America can be attributed to anthropogenic warming."


id: e132874561a64f7d7096cd1ff845aec7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32929
content:
"AR5 concluded that the extent to which groundwater abstractions \r\nare affected by climate change is not well known due to the lack of \r\nlong-term observational data (Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014). AR6 \r\n(Douville et  al., 2021) confirmed that, despite considerable progress \r\nsince AR5, limitations in the spatio-temporal coverage of groundwater \r\nmonitoring networks, abstraction data and numerical representations of \r\ngroundwater recharge processes continue to constrain understanding of \r\nclimate change impacts on groundwater."


id: bfd484257bf5bba53264d69381743ce2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27735
content:
"Major drought events worldwide have had substantial societal and \r\necological impacts, including reduced crop yields, shortages of drinking \r\nwater, wildfires causing deaths of people and very large numbers of \r\nanimals, impacting the habitats of threatened species, and widespread \r\neconomic losses (Table 4.4, Cross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter \r\n4). In addition, anthropogenic climate change was found to have \r\nincreased the likelihood or severity of most such events examined in \r\nevent attribution studies."


id: 1323e59319fb9175408381539871ee07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 525
content:
"Even though global groundwater abstraction (789 +- 30 km3 yr-1) is \r\njust about 6% of the annual recharge (~13,466 km3\r\n) (Hanasaki et al., "


id: 7b5273b8aced0741f705668b2a8a6464
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16991
content:
"Table 4.4 |  Selected major drought events from 2013 to 2020 and their societal impact. Studies were selected for presentation based on the availability scientific literature impacts \r\ninformation and do not necessarily represent the most severe events.Impactful events are included even if not found to have a component attributable to climate change. This is not \r\na systematic assessment of event attributions studies and their physical science conclusions. 'Sign of influence' indicates whether anthropogenic climate change was found to have \r\nmade the event more or less likely, and 'mechanism/magnitude of influence' quantifies the change in likelihood and the processes or quantities involved."


id: 1833d2fa5a396d671cef29890658a945
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1294
content:
"are variable. These estimates range from approximately 113 to 510 km3\r\nyr-1 and variation in estimates is due to methods and spatio-temporal \r\nscales considered (high confidence). Global hydrological models \r\n(Herbert and Doll, 2019) show that human-induced groundwater \r\ndepletion at rates exceeding 20 mm yr-1 (2001-2010) is occurring in the \r\nmajor aquifers systems such as the High Plains and California Central \r\nValley aquifers (USA), Arabian aquifer (Middle East), North-Western \r\nSahara Aquifer System (North Africa), Indo-Gangetic Basin (India) and \r\nNorth China Plain (China) (high confidence). Groundwater depletion at \r\nlower rates (<10 mm yr-1) is taking place in the Amazon Basin (Brazil) \r\nand Mekong River Basin (South East Asia), primarily due to climate \r\nvariability and change (high confidence). A global-scale analysis "


id: e009576214fe7bc98386c7a5b14fa73a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32739
content:
"2018), a few hotspots of groundwater depletion have emerged at local \r\nto regional scales since the end of 20th century to the beginning of \r\nthe 21st century due to intensive groundwater use for irrigation. The \r\nvariability in groundwater storage is a function of human abstraction \r\nand natural recharge, which is in turn controlled by local geology \r\n(Green, 2016). In humid regions, precipitation influences recharge, \r\nand linear associations between precipitation and recharge are often \r\nobserved (Kotchoni et al., 2019); for example, over humid locations in \r\nsub-Saharan Africa (Cuthbert et al., 2019b)."


id: b061afbc2cec024b688e7e3b48b6b537
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25272
content:
"under global warming (Condon et al., 2020). Long-term groundwater\u0002level monitoring data are of critical importance (Famiglietti, 2014) for \r\nunderstanding the sensitivity of recharge processes to climate variability \r\nand, more critically, calibration and validation of hydrological models \r\n(Goderniaux et al., 2015). GRACE satellite-derived groundwater storage \r\nestimates provide important insights at a regional scale (Rodell et al., \r\n2018) but overlook more localised depletion or short-term storage \r\ngains. Low- and middle-income countries such as central Asia and sub\u0002Saharan Africa lack such monitoring networks, which is a significant \r\nknowledge gap."


id: 8cb6bd37e2d769375da00b8aefe9de54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19654
content:
"In summary, groundwater storage has declined in many parts of the \r\nworld, most notably since the beginning of the 21st century, due to \r\nthe intensification of groundwater-fed irrigation (high confidence). \r\nGroundwater in aquifers across the tropics appears to be more resilient \r\nto climate change as enhanced recharge is observed to occur mostly \r\nepisodically from intense precipitation and flooding events (robust \r\nevidence, medium agreement). In higher altitudes, warmer climates \r\nhave altered groundwater regimes and may have led to reduced spring \r\nrecharge due to reduced duration and snowmelt discharges (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 1b7a1c7ee918284489d924cf85be3696
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1785
content:
"In cold regions, where snowmelt dominates the local hydrological \r\nprocesses, Irannezhad et  al. (2016) and Vincent et  al. (2019) show \r\nhigh recharge to aquifers from glacial meltwater, while Nygren et al. \r\n(2020) report a decrease in groundwater recharge due to a shift in \r\nmain recharge period from spring (snowmelt) to winter (rainfall). In \r\nFinland, a sustained reduction (almost 100 mm in 100 years) of long\u0002term snow accumulation combined with early snowmelt has reduced \r\nspring recharge (Irannezhad et al., 2016) (medium confidence)."


id: 6962e010424bbead32002aff5d3b42d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14176
content:
"AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014) concluded with medium evidence\r\nand high agreement that climate change affected water quality, \r\nposing additional risks to drinking water quality and human health \r\n(Field et  al., 2014b), particularly due to increased eutrophication at \r\nhigher temperatures or release of contaminants due to extreme floods \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). In addition, SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b; \r\nMeredith et  al., 2019) assessed that glacier decline and permafrost \r\ndegradation impacts water quality through increases in legacy \r\ncontaminants (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: eb0719af77f9279fca322edcbafec454
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34481
content:
"Data from ground-based long-term records in the Indo-Gangetic Basin \r\nreveals that sustainable groundwater supplies are constrained more \r\nby extensive contamination (e.g., arsenic, salinity) than depletion \r\n(MacDonald et  al., 2016). Many low-lying coastal aquifers are \r\ncontaminated with increased salinity due to land use change, rising \r\nsea levels, reduced stream flows and increased storm surge inundation \r\n(Lall et al., 2020). Nearly 26 million people are currently exposed to \r\nvery high (>1500 mS cm-1) salinity in shallow groundwater in coastal \r\nBangladesh (Shamsudduha and Taylor, 2020)."


id: 21603349aaea5ea24b290aeaef5da48c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2681
content:
"Warming temperatures and extreme weather events can potentially \r\nimpact water quality (Khan et  al., 2015). Water quality can be \r\ncompromised through algal blooms that affect the taste and odour of \r\nrecreational and drinking water and can harbour toxins and pathogens \r\n(Khan et al., 2015). Warming directly affects thermal water regimes, \r\npromoting harmful algal blooms (Li et  al., 2018; Noori et  al., 2018) \r\n(Section  4.3.5). Additionally, permafrost degradation leads to an \r\nincreased flux of contaminants (MacMillan et al., 2015; Roberts et al., \r\n2017; Mu et al., 2019). The increased meltwater from glaciers (Zhang \r\net  al., 2019) releases deposited contaminants and reduces water \r\nquality downstream (Zhang et al., 2017; Hock et al., 2019b)."


id: 5ef1a59a4925275ae343c846bb934191
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12480
content:
"Floods intensify the mixing of floodwater with wastewater and \r\nthe redistribution of pollutants (Andrade et  al., 2018). In addition, \r\ncontaminated floodwaters pose an immediate health risk through \r\nwaterborne diseases (Huang et al., 2016b; Paterson et al., 2018; Setty \r\net al., 2018). Wildfires, along with heavy rainfalls and floods, can also \r\naffect turbidity, which increases drinking water treatment challenges \r\nand has been linked to increases in gastrointestinal illness (de Roos et al., \r\n2017). Droughts reduce river dilution capacities and groundwater levels \r\n(Wen et al., 2017) increasing the risk of groundwater contamination \r\n(Klove et al., 2014). More generally, contaminated water diminishes its "


id: 4915cc98574870afe276296ad34bea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8882
content:
"In summary, although climate-induced water quality degradation \r\ndue to increases in water and surface temperatures or melting of \r\nthe cryosphere has been observed (medium confidence), evidence of \r\nglobal-scale changes in water quality is limited because many studies \r\nare isolated and have limited regional coverage."


id: 6a477bd27d6c1e98d5149d32a3e53037
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14319
content:
"AR5 established potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion \r\nand sediment loads in mountain regions with glacier melt (low to \r\nmedium evidence) (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). SRCCL (Olsson et al., \r\n2020) reported with high confidence that rainfall changes attributed \r\nto human-induced climate change have already intensified drivers of \r\nland degradation. Nonetheless, attributing land degradation to climate \r\nchange alone is challenging because of the role of land management \r\npractices (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: e3a206c96cada2a3a5635b3fd720c26e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33294
content:
"The climate change impact on erosion and sediment load varies \r\nsignificantly over the world (Li et al., 2020b) (high confidence). There \r\nwas a statistically significant correlation between sediment yield and air \r\ntemperature for the non-Mediterranean region of western and central "


id: 7f32602edf56ebe863c54fe10b948819
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17563
content:
"that have increased societal vulnerability and required communities \r\nacross the globe to alter their productive and cultural practices."


id: f8060f83d935bb93109c89e8597f8b16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36535
content:
"AR5 concluded with high confidence that agricultural production was \r\nnegatively affected by climate change, with droughts singled out as a \r\nmajor driver of food insecurity. In contrast, evidence of floods on food \r\nproduction was limited (Porter et al., 2014)."


id: a6a4437b82395f5435adfea725e75755
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23744
content:
"A long-term global soil erosion monitoring network based on the unified \r\nmethodological approach is needed to correctly evaluate erosion rates, \r\ndetect their changes and attribute them to climate or other drivers."


id: 78b397d453ac1bb84312b7ef3be434df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16551
content:
"In summary, in the areas with high human activity, factors other than \r\nclimate have a more significant impact on soil erosion and sediment \r\nflux (high confidence). On the other hand, in natural conditions, for \r\nexample, in high latitudes and high mountains, the influence of climate \r\nchange on the acceleration of the erosion rate is observed (limited \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


id: 8f9b869801e265ddb9013d154a3f3da1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20142
content:
"The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change has multifaceted and severe impacts for cultural, \r\neconomic, social and political pathways. In this section, we assess \r\nburgeoning evidence since AR5 which shows that environmental \r\nquality, economic development and social well-being have been \r\naffected by climate-induced hydrological changes since many aspects \r\nof the economy, environment and society are dependent upon water \r\nresources. We advance previous IPCC reports by assessing evidence \r\non the impacts of climate change-induced water insecurity for energy \r\nproduction (Section  4.3.2), urbanisation (Section  4.3.4), conflicts \r\n(Section 4.3.6), human mobility (Section 4.3.7) and cultural usage of \r\nwater (Section 4.3.8)."


id: 8618a80a7f5f9548ff607e933831f365
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18638
content:
"Integrating qualitative and quantitative data, we show that it is evident \r\nthat societies heightened exposure to water-induced disasters--such as \r\nfloods and droughts--and other hydrological changes have increased \r\nvulnerability across most sectors and regions, with few exceptions. \r\nThrough the assessment of literature relying on IK, we are also able \r\nto present evidence on how observed changes impact particularly \r\nIndigenous Peoples, local communities and marginalised groups, such \r\nas women, people without social protections and minorities."


id: 7a5b8b7e3ecda8d833371b4e34b912d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16822
content:
"(Savo et al., 2016). Indigenous and local communities, often heavily \r\nreliant on agriculture, have a wealth of knowledge about observed \r\nchanges. These are important because they shape farmers' perceptions, \r\nwhich in turn shape the adaptation measures farmers will undertake \r\n(Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Savo et al., 2016; Sujakhu et al., 2016; Su \r\net al., 2017) (Section 4.8.4) (high confidence)."


id: afff304094831ddca81e81d741737fdb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25218
content:
"In summary, ongoing climate change in temperate climates has \r\nsome positive impacts on agricultural production. In subtropical/\r\ntropical climates, climate-induced hazards such as floods and \r\ndroughts negatively impact agricultural production (high confidence). \r\nPeople living in deprivation and Indigenous Peoples have been \r\ndisproportionally affected. They often rely on rain-fed agriculture in \r\nmarginal areas with high exposure and high vulnerability to water\u0002related stress and low adaptive capacity (high confidence)."


id: bd87bd00e7058484bca916c0f0cc8039
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27387
content:
"AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014) concluded with medium evidence\r\nand high agreement that hydropower negatively impacts freshwater \r\necosystems. SROCC (IPCC, 2019a) concluded with medium confidence\r\nthat climate change has led to both increases and decreases in annual/\r\nseasonal water inputs to hydropower plants."


id: 1d9d55fd585d4aad4330648a62eb7e7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2099
content:
"Water is a crucial input for hydroelectric and thermoelectric energy \r\nproduction, which together account for 94.7% of the world's current \r\nelectricity generation (Petroleum, 2020). Climate change impacts \r\nhydropower production through changes in precipitation, evaporation, \r\nvolume and timing of runoff; and impacts cooling of thermoelectric power \r\nplants through reduced streamflow and increased water temperatures \r\n(Yalew et al., 2020). In addition, extreme weather events, like tropical \r\ncyclones, landslides and floods, damage energy infrastructure (MCTI, \r\n2020; Yalew et al., 2020), while high temperature and humidity increase \r\nthe energy requirement for cooling (Maia-Silva et al., 2020)."


id: ef889875f3d02cb1062198942b10a99f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35179
content:
"With 1308 GW installed capacity in 2019, hydropower became the \r\nworld's largest single source of renewable energy (IHA, 2020) (also see \r\nFigure  6.12, WGIII). While hydropower reduces emissions relative to \r\nfossil fuel-based energy production, hydropower reservoirs are being \r\nincreasingly associated with GHG emissions caused by submergence \r\nand later re-emergence of vegetation under reservoirs due to water \r\nlevel fluctuations (Rasanen et  al., 2018; Song et  al., 2018; Maavara \r\net  al., 2020). A recent global study concluded that reservoirs might \r\nemit more carbon than they bury, especially in the tropics (Keller et al., \r\n2021) (medium confidence)."


id: aea7e1b6632da2e118d3a03a5d0c70f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25006
content:
"In Ghana, between 1970 and 1990, rainfall variability accounted for \r\n21% of interannual variations in hydropower generation (Boadi and \r\nOwusu, 2019). In Brazil's Sao Francisco River, following drought events \r\nin 2016 and 2017, hydropower plants operated with an average capacity \r\nfactor of only 23% and 17%, respectively (de Jong et  al., 2018). In \r\nSwitzerland, increased glacier melt contributed to 3-4% of hydropower \r\nproduction since 1980 (Schaefli et al., 2019) (Section 4.2.2). In the USA, \r\nhydropower generation dropped by nearly 27% for every standard \r\ndeviation increase in water scarcity. Equivalent social costs of loss in "


id: 8ef0d8f09b0d7a05281a9edb816d3dba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20022
content:
"Worldwide, the magnitudes of climate-induced water-related hazards \r\nand their impact on agriculture are differentiated across populations \r\nand genders (Sections 4.3.6; 4.8.3). Evidence shows that hydroclimatic \r\nfactors pose high food insecurity risks to subsistence farmers, whose \r\nfirst and only source of livelihood is agriculture, and who are situated \r\nat low latitudes where the climate is hotter and drier (Shrestha and \r\nNepal, 2016; Sujakhu et  al., 2016). Historically, they have been the \r\nmost vulnerable to observed climate-induced hydrological changes "


id: 5c861754ac5663fec90da1e6ffdcad14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12075
content:
"hydropower generation between 2001 and 2012 were approximately \r\nUSD 330,000 (at 2015 value) per month for every power plant that \r\nexperienced water scarcity (Eyer and Wichman, 2018). Globally, for the \r\nperiod 1981-2010, the utilisation rate of hydropower was reduced by \r\n5.2% during drought years compared to long-term average values (van \r\nVliet et al., 2016a). Thus, there is a growing body of evidence of negative \r\nimpacts of extreme events on hydropower production (high confidence)."


id: e1237209cfb0f79d9502638e7214ba4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32920
content:
"Impacts of water scarcity on thermoelectric plants are more \r\nunequivocal than hydropower plants. For example, a scenario-based \r\nsimulation study showed that 32% of the world's coal-fired power \r\nplants (CFPPs) plants are currently experiencing water scarcity for \r\nat least five months or more in a year (Rosa et  al., 2020c). In the \r\nUK, almost 50% of freshwater thermal capacity is lost on extreme \r\nhigh-temperature days, causing losses in the range of average GBP \r\n29-66 million yr-1. For ~20% of particularly vulnerable power plants, \r\nthese losses could increase to GBP 66-95 million yr-1 annualised over \r\n30  years (Byers et  al., 2020). Globally, for the period 1981-2010, \r\nthe utilisation rate of thermoelectric power was reduced by 3.8% \r\nduring drought years compared to long-term average values (van \r\nVliet et  al., 2016a), and none of the studies reported increases in \r\nthermoelectric power production as a consequence of climate change \r\n(high confidence)."


id: fccc70179bbb0b3d80fe5206d1754d55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37287
content:
"In the energy sector, a large number of studies document the impact of \r\nextreme climate events (e.g., droughts or extreme temperature days) \r\non production of hydropower and thermoelectric power, yet there are \r\nlimited studies that measure trends in energy production due to long\u0002term climate change. This remains a knowledge gap."


id: b89bf0bc8079ff649b2c2efec1563dd3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26576
content:
"Mining in regions already vulnerable to climate change-induced water \r\nscarcity is under threat, leading some countries like El Salvador to \r\nban metal mining completely (Odell et al., 2018). Likewise, food and \r\nagro-processing companies are aware of water-related threats to their \r\noperations, with 77% of 35 publicly traded companies evaluated in \r\n2019 explicitly citing water as a risk factor in their annual reports, \r\nup from 59% in 2017 (CDP, 2018; CERES, 2019). Changes in water \r\navailability affect the mining, electrical, metal and agro-processing \r\nsectors (UNIDO, 2017; Odell et  al., 2018; Frost and Hua, 2019), but \r\nthese impacts are less understood due to the lack of studies."


id: 5289f18fdf4c1bfcb5b7143f0d8a378a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10443
content:
"In summary, there is high confidence that climate change has had \r\nnegative impacts on hydro and thermal power production globally due \r\nto droughts, changes in the seasonality of river flows, and increasing \r\nambient water temperatures."


id: ea0d85b0476b88af5d343c99af128a56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34321
content:
"Water insecurity and inadequate WaSH have been associated with \r\nincreased disease risk (high confidence), stress and adverse mental \r\nhealth (limited evidence, medium agreement), food insecurity and \r\nadverse nutritional outcomes, and poor cognitive and birth outcomes \r\n(limited evidence, medium agreement) (Workman and Ureksoy, 2017; \r\nSclar et al., 2018; Boateng et al., 2020; Rosinger and Young, 2020; Wutich \r\net  al., 2020). Climate-induced water scarcity and supply disruptions "


id: 76b91444c31d5b92acd124b8a87dcab7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16261
content:
"AR5 showed that local changes in temperature and rainfall had altered \r\nthe distribution of some water-related diseases (medium confidence), \r\nand extreme weather events disrupt water supplies, impacting \r\nmorbidity, mortality and mental health (very high confidence) (Field \r\net  al., 2014b). In addition, melting and thawing of snow, ice and \r\npermafrost (Section 4.2.2) have also adversely impacted water quality, \r\nsecurity and health (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019a) (Section 4.2.7)."


id: 42984895b9820ee34f4aa2abc7e90669
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7866
content:
"evidence) (Section 4.1.2). For example, despite an increase in flooding \r\nevents from 1.1 flood events yr-1 (1986-2005) to five flood events \r\nyr-1 (2006-2016) in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), analyses of rainfall \r\nindices showed few have significant trends at a 5% level over the \r\nperiod 1961-2015 and that the generalised extreme value distribution \r\nfit the time series of annual maximum daily rainfall (Tazen et al., 2019). \r\nOn the other hand, long-term annual variations of maximum hourly \r\nprecipitation in Shanghai (China) increased significantly during 1916-\r\n2014, especially from 1981."


id: 5ea02cca88822794beb194798c403f61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12424
content:
"There are gaps in data on climate-driven water-related disease \r\nburden for both infectious and non-communicable diseases. Increased \r\ndemands for water and WaSH services for infectious diseases, such as \r\nHIV/AIDS and COVID-19 (Box 4.4) exacerbate existing vulnerabilities \r\nand inequities (Stanley et  al., 2017; Armitage and Nellums, 2020a; \r\nRodriguez-Lonebear et  al., 2020). Additionally, limited research has \r\nbeen undertaken to quantify the effects of climate-compromised WaSH \r\non health and well-being."


id: db6661a2af8216264f2cfdd18df9d38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32030
content:
"In summary, WaSH-related household water insecurity and disease \r\nincidence are products of geography, politics, social and environmental \r\ndeterminants, vulnerability and climate change (Bardosh et al., 2017; \r\nStoler et al., 2021)."


id: 20fc15514733bb6653f788a209c74eed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2623
content:
"All previous IPCC reports have focused on future water-related risks to \r\nurban areas due to climate change rather than documented observed \r\nimpacts."


id: 16440ec2132c6b1b1bec2ce6ce23b2bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1030
content:
"Climate extremes have profound implications for urban and peri-urban \r\nwater management, particularly in an increasingly urbanised world (high \r\nconfidence). Over half (54%) of the global population currently lives in \r\ncities (WWAP, 2019), and global urbanisation rates continue to increase \r\nacross all SSPs (Jiang and O'Neill, 2017). Using observed station data \r\nfor 217 urban areas worldwide, Mishra et al. (2015) noted that 17% of \r\ncities experienced statistically significant increases (p value < 0.05) in \r\nthe frequency of daily precipitation extremes from 1973 to 2012 and \r\nhypothesised that such observed climate changes in urban areas were \r\nlargely due to large-scale changes rather than local land cover changes."


id: 32adb0fcad21cfbd34b6c3d8f69a0ac1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5394
content:
"Authors: Aditi Mukherji (India, Chapter 4), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/Switzerland/France, Chapter 7), Caroline Zickgraf (Contributing \r\nAuthor), Paulina Aldunce (Chile, Chapter 7), Liliana Raquel Miranda Sara (Peru, Chapter 12), William Solecki, (USA, Chapter 17), Friederike \r\nOtto (UK, WGI), Francois Gemenne (France, WGI), Martina Angela Caretta (Sweden, Chapter 4);, Richard Jones (UK, WGI); Richard Betts (UK, \r\nChapter 4), Maarten van Aalst (the Netherlands, Chapter 16), Jakob Zscheischler (Switzerland), Kris Murray (UK), Mauro E. Gonzalez (Chile)."


id: 2a9fd682f0e0e3b71e789a1080c259c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4129
content:
"Here, we document eight catastrophic climate-related disasters that took place between 2017 and 2021. These disasters resulted in the \r\nloss of lives and livelihoods and had adverse impacts on biodiversity, health, infrastructure and the economy. These disasters provided \r\nimportant rallying points for discussions around climate change, equity and vulnerability in some cases. These disasters also offer valuable \r\nlessons about the role of effective climate change adaptation in managing disaster risks and the importance of Loss and Damage \r\nmechanisms in global negotiation processes (Jongman et al., 2014; Mechler et al., 2014; Cutter and Gall, 2015)."


id: 3f186646fe10e6b0fd389fc8571227a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7315
content:
"se 1. Compounded events and impacts on human systems: Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique in 2019"


id: d2b01e098ea105d11eff95a2a70b7daa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30668
content:
"(IDMC, 2020). Because it happened amidst the COVID-19 crisis, evacuation plans were constrained due to social distancing norms (Baidya \r\net al., 2020). Social media played an important role in disseminating pre-cyclone warnings and information on post-cyclone relief work \r\n(Crayton et al., 2020; Poddar et al., 2020)."


id: 3f37035b7fc9f9ff5bd57562c0edc350
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7340
content:
"Case 4. Impacts worsened due to sociocultural and political conditions: The \"Coastal Nino\" in Peru, 2017"


id: d156e19aca6ba563be168851cbccd136
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30471
content:
"In the summer of 2019/2020, bushfires in Australia killed 417 people due to smoke and killed between 0.5 and 1.5 billion wild animals and \r\ntens of thousands of livestock (van Oldenborgh et al., 2020). These fires also destroyed approximately 5900 buildings and burnt 97,000 km2\r\n of "


id: 398779c089d7f25799c49a418cbf3aa2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6427
content:
"Table Cross-Chapter Box DISASTER.1 |  Summarising impacts, losses and damages, displacement and climate change detection and attribution of these seven disaster \r\nase studies."


id: fac3079087c4f6daecbbb3431a454bf2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36973
content:
"In summary, disasters are a stark illustration of the potential for extreme weather events to impact people and other species. With the \r\nfrequency, severity and (or) likelihood of several types of extreme weather increasing, disasters can increasingly be regarded as 'the \r\npublic face of climate change' (high confidence). Detection and attribution studies make the climate change fingerprint of several types \r\nof disasters increasingly clear (high confidence). Moreover, existing vulnerabilities and exposures play an important role in turning \r\nextreme events into disasters, further exacerbating existing racial, gender and social inequalities (high confidence). Therefore, disaster risk \r\nreduction needs to be central to adaptation and mitigation efforts to meet the SDGs and the Paris Agreement for a climate-resilient future."


id: b453445cc18321c57736d336eced6aa2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25883
content:
"In summary, water-related hazards such as drought and flooding have \r\nbeen exacerbated by climate change in some cities (high confidence). \r\nFurther research is necessary to determine the extent and nature of \r\nwater-related climate change impacts in the urban areas of developing \r\ncountries (high confidence)."


id: 6e99825ecbcdb6f48e01c83210ab6980
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15028
content:
"The loss and degradation of freshwater ecosystems have been widely \r\ndocumented, and SRCCL assessed with medium confidence the loss of \r\nwetlands since the 1970s (Olsson et al., 2020)."


id: bdbbeb1b587efd07f182edae50b4f4ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27411
content:
"Lakes have been warming, as shown by an increasing trend of summer \r\nsurface water temperatures between 1985 and 2009 of 0.34degC per \r\ndecade (O'Reilly et al., 2015). However, responses of individual lakes to \r\nwarming were very dependent on local characteristics (O'Reilly et al., \r\n2015), with warming enhancing the impacts of eutrophication in some \r\ninstances (Sepulveda-Jauregui et al., 2018). For example, temperature \r\nincreases led to lower oxygen concentrations in eutrophic coastal \r\nwetlands due to phytoplankton and microbial respiration (Jenny et al., \r\n2016) and stimulated algal blooms (Michalak, 2016) and affected the \r\ncommunity structure of fish and other biotas (Mantyka-Pringle et al., \r\n2014; Poesch et al., 2016)."


id: a53ea341cd4ddda689a21699b80deb49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23567
content:
"Rising temperatures have a strong impact in the arctic zone, where the \r\nsouthern limit of permafrost is moving north and leading to changes \r\nin the landscape (Arp et al., 2016; Minayeva et al., 2018). Thawing of \r\nthe permafrost leads to increased erosion and runoff and changes in \r\nthe geomorphology and vegetation of arctic peatlands (Nilsson et al., \r\n2015; Sun et al., 2018b). Permafrost thawing has led to the expansion \r\nof lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (Li et al., 2014). As northern high-latitude \r\npeatlands store a large amount of carbon, permafrost thawing can \r\nincrease methane and carbon dioxide emissions (Schuur et al., 2015; \r\nMoomaw et al., 2018). This represents a major gap in our understanding \r\nof the rates of change and their consequences for freshwater ecosystems."


id: dd927fb43f347db9d52368230ed4e307
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32364
content:
"The Global Wetland Outlook (Ramsar Convention, 2018) reported that \r\nbetween 1970 and 2015, the area of freshwater wetlands declined by \r\napproximately 35% (Davidson and Finlayson, 2018), with high levels of \r\nthe overall percentage of threatened species recorded in Madagascar \r\nand Indian Ocean islands (43%); in Europe (36%); in the tropical Andes \r\n(35%); and New Zealand (41%) (Ramsar Convention, 2018). Where \r\nlong-term data are available, only 13% of the wetlands recorded in \r\nand around the year 1700 remained by 2000. However, these data \r\nmay overestimate the rate of loss (Davidson, 2014) (limited evidence, \r\nmedium agreement). Many wetland-dependent species have seen a \r\nlong-term decline, with the Living Planet Index showing that 81% \r\nof populations of freshwater species are in decline and others being \r\nthreatened by extinction (Davidson and Finlayson, 2018; Darrah et al., \r\n2019; Diaz et al., 2019) (high confidence)."


id: 864594364ba3cc48cc7bf4d051ce8abd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18668
content:
"The extent of past degradation due to multiple drivers is important, as \r\nclimate change is expected to interact synergistically and cumulatively \r\nwith these (Finlayson et al., 2006), exacerbate existing problems for \r\nwetland managers and potentially increase emissions from carbon-rich \r\nwetland soils (Finlayson et al., 2017; Moomaw et al., 2018). Freshwater \r\necosystems are also under extreme pressure from changes in land use \r\nand water pollution, with climate change exacerbating these, such as \r\nthe further decline of snow cover (DeBeer et al., 2016) and increased \r\nconsumptive use of fresh water, and leading to the decline, and \r\npossibly extinction, of many freshwater-dependent populations (high \r\nconfidence). Thus, differentiating between the impacts of multiple "


id: a73f15359c1128a811292d138e15ab54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23827
content:
"Temperature changes lead to changes in the distribution patterns of \r\nfreshwater species. Poleward and up-elevation range shifts due to \r\nwarming temperatures tend to ultimately lead to reduced range sizes. \r\nFreshwater species in the tropics are particularly vulnerable (Jezkova and \r\nWiens, 2016; Sheldon, 2019). Systematic shifts towards higher elevation "


id: 2d571f2824296b2b6f16f0a27ea9df54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4575
content:
"role in stimulating cooperative efforts, as in the case of the Ganges\u0002Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin (Mirumachi, 2015; Link et al., 2016) \r\n(medium confidence). More generally, there is some evidence that \r\nwhen hydrological conditions change in transboundary river basins, \r\nformal agreements (e.g., water treaties or river basin organisations) \r\ncan enhance cooperation (de Stefano et al., 2017; Dinar et al., 2019) \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement). Still, more cooperation does \r\nnot necessarily reduce the risk of conflict, especially when water \r\nvariability increases beyond a certain threshold (low evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Dinar et al., 2015; Dinar et al., 2019)."


id: a44d4f930f11b595e5566a8110c8cd9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23410
content:
"drivers is needed, especially given the synergistic and cumulative \r\nnature of such impacts, which remains a knowledge gap."


id: e5c962a5be8375e0ca90b8dad49db374
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33657
content:
"In summary, climate change is one of the key drivers of the loss and \r\ndegradation of freshwater ecosystems and the unprecedented decline \r\nand extinction of many freshwater-dependent populations. The \r\npredominant key drivers are changes in land use and water pollution \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 1a74abb9ed55122a32747ff7b68d93f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1643
content:
"In summary, there is no consensus on the causal association between \r\nobserved climate change and conflicts. Still, evidence exists that those \r\ntensions can be amplified depending on climatic variables and other \r\nconcomitant socioeconomic and political factors."


id: 659bf429d9d3ef9e259b4e66bc93cf9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13562
content:
"According to AR5, violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate \r\nchange (Field et  al., 2014a) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nFurthermore, the IPCC SRCCL (Hurlbert et  al., 2019) concluded with \r\nmedium confidence that climatic stressors can exacerbate the negative \r\nimpacts of conflict."


id: e81bc5a2c648b305e8738ec666f311aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34021
content:
"AR5 (Adger and Pulhin, 2014) found links between climate change \r\nand migration in general (medium evidence, high agreement), but \r\nprovided no assessment of climate-induced hydrological changes and \r\nmigration specifically. Likewise, SRCCL (Mirzabaev et al., 2019; Olsson \r\net al., 2020) and SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) noted that migration is \r\ncomplex and that migration decisions and outcomes are influenced \r\nby a combination of social, demographic, economic, environmental \r\nand political factors and contexts (see Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in \r\nChapter 7). This chapter confirms this evidence, focusing on climate\u0002induced hydrological changes."


id: f202b6eecbad67adfe0676b5568c5ad3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35605
content:
"Climate-induced hydrological changes can, through slow-onset (e.g., \r\ndrought) or rapid-onset (e.g., flood) events, influence human mobility \r\nand migration through effects on the economy and livelihoods \r\n(Adger et al., 2018). There is medium confidence that climate-induced \r\nhydrological changes have affected bilateral migration (Backhaus \r\net  al., 2015; Cattaneo and Peri, 2016; Falco et  al., 2019). However, \r\nthere is medium evidence and low agreement on the effects on the \r\nmovements of refugees globally (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017; Owain \r\nand Maslin, 2018; Abel et al., 2019; Schutte et al., 2021)."


id: 5e4b0c2eb031e734c4c5a9de360326c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12363
content:
"There is robust evidence that floods and droughts have, mainly through \r\nadverse impacts on agriculture (Mastrorillo et  al., 2016; Nawrotzki \r\nand Bakhtsiyarava, 2017; Bergmann et  al., 2021; Zouabi, 2021) \r\n(Section  4.6.2), both increased and decreased the risk of temporary \r\nor permanent migration (Obokata et al., 2014; Afifi et al., 2016; Thiede \r\net al., 2016; Murray-Tortarolo and Salgado, 2021; Wesselbaum, 2021). \r\nHowever, migration effects depend on the nature of the hydrological \r\nchange, for example, whether it is a slow-onset or rapid-onset event \r\n(Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020), the perception of change (Koubi et al., \r\n2016; de Longueville et al., 2020) or the socioeconomic situation of \r\nthe affected communities (Ocello et al., 2015; Afifi et al., 2016; Thiede \r\net al., 2016) (robust evidence; medium agreement)."


id: ff5abe1ac4c879d4ef3f5f8b1f047160
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37726
content:
"The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that \r\nan average of 12 million new displacements happen each year due to \r\ndroughts and floods alone. By the end of 2020, there were 7 million "


id: 3a151c908a7d455ff5946fddd58b286c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6513
content:
"and traditional peoples are adapting to the risks of climate-driven \r\nhydrological changes to cultural water uses and practices (Section 4.6.9)."


id: 497b55b402724720c796fe7a235fc85f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8949
content:
"people displaced due to natural disasters, including drought and floods \r\n(IDMC, 2020). Furthermore, household water insecurity has also been \r\nsingled out as a driver of migration, given its physical, mental health \r\nand socioeconomic effects (Stoler et al., 2021) (medium confidence)."


id: b9d6a5c027bad8418eca71694851bfd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26775
content:
"There is high confidence that the prospect of loss (anticipatory grief) \r\ndue to climate-related hydrological change, such as inundation \r\nor relocation, affects Indigenous Peoples, local communities and \r\ntraditional peoples. These communities are especially susceptible to \r\ndetrimental mental health impacts because of the implications of \r\nclimate change for their cultural, land-based practices (du Bray et al., \r\n2017). For example, fears of cultural loss in Tuvalu (Gibson et al., 2019) \r\nare resulting in worry, anxiety and sadness among local people, with \r\nsimilar responses reported in Fiji and other Pacific islands (du Bray \r\net al., 2017; Yates et al., 2021) (Box 15.1)."


id: 45bfc3afa93575a7f6f3a6551d38aa15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8368
content:
"More research is needed to understand better the contexts in which \r\nclimate-induced hydrological changes affect the likelihood of migration \r\nor alter existing patterns (Obokata et al., 2014; Gray and Wise, 2016; \r\nCattaneo et al., 2019)."


id: 312553db3789dcd727036f81c4c4cf54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5152
content:
"In summary, climate-induced hydrological changes can increase \r\nand decrease the likelihood of migration (robust evidence, medium \r\nagreement). The outcome is determined mainly by the socioeconomic, \r\npolitical and environmental context (medium confidence)."


id: 467a22ef6a74543218c245aad9cb9a65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8466
content:
"AR5 concluded with high confidence that the livelihoods and cultural \r\npractices of the diverse Indigenous Peoples of the Arctic have been \r\nimpacted by climate change (Larsen et al., 2014). SROCC found with \r\nhigh confidence that cryospheric and associated hydrological changes \r\nhave affected culturally significant terrestrial and freshwater species \r\nand ecosystems in high-mountain and polar regions, thus impacting \r\nresidents' livelihoods and cultural identity, including Indigenous \r\nPeoples (Hock et al., 2019b; IPCC, 2019a; Meredith et al., 2019). SROCC \r\nalso concluded that IKLK are vital in determining community responses \r\nto environmental risk. The report further noted that IKLK helps increase \r\nadaptive capacity and reduces long-term vulnerability, but did not \r\nassess climate-related impacts on cultural water uses on low-lying \r\nislands (Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: eaaeeb98df4970f0563ffa9dba03c6e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34431
content:
"Freshwater (including ice and snow) has diverse meanings and \r\nsymbolic representations, as well as associated practices, management \r\nand reciprocal responsibilities for many Indigenous Peoples, local \r\ncommunities and traditional peoples (Cave and McKay, 2016; Craft, \r\n2018; Hansen and Antsanen, 2018; Ngata, 2018; Chiblow 2019; \r\nWilson et al., 2019; Moggridge and Thompson, 2021). Climate-driven \r\nhydrological changes are affecting culturally significant terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater species and ecosystems, particularly for Indigenous Peoples, \r\nlocal communities and traditional peoples in the Arctic, high mountain \r\nareas, and small islands (high confidence). These climate impacts on \r\ncultural water uses are influencing travel, hunting, herding, fishing and \r\ngathering practices, which have negative implications for livelihoods, \r\ncultural traditions, economies and self-determination (Table 4.5)."


id: 3851c97e01b61ce2661596646acb9e8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6235
content:
"In polar areas, there is high confidence that the appearance of land \r\npreviously covered by ice, changes in snow cover, and thawing permafrost \r\nare contributing to changing seasonal activities. These include changes \r\nin accessibility, abundance and distribution of culturally important \r\nplant and animal species. These changes are harming the livelihoods \r\nand cultural identity of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and \r\ntraditional peoples. In northern Fennoscandia, for example, reindeer \r\nherders reported experiences of deteriorated foraging conditions due \r\nto changes in the winter climate (Forbes et  al., 2019; Rasmus et  al., \r\n2020). In addition, Inuit and First Nations communities in Canada (Ford \r\net  al., 2019; Khalafzai et  al., 2019) and Alaskan Natives and Native \r\nAmerican communities in the USA (Norton-Smith et al., 2016) identified \r\ndisruption to access routes to traditional hunting grounds and climate\u0002related stresses to culturally important species."


id: 1d787f165d9c8f6be599d21454f577cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2080
content:
"Some of these losses may be classified as non-economic losses and \r\ndamages, such as loss of culture and traditions (Thomas and Benjamin, \r\n2018b; McNamara et al., 2021). The vulnerability of these cultural uses \r\nto climate change is exacerbated by historical and ongoing processes \r\nof colonialism and capitalism, which dispossessed Indigenous Peoples \r\nand disrupted culturally significant multi-species relationships (Whyte, \r\n2017; Whyte, 2018; Wilson et al., 2019; Whyte, 2020; Rice et al., 2021) \r\n(14.4.7.3; 9.13.2.4). Despite these significant structural barriers, there is \r\nmedium confidence that some Indigenous Peoples, local communities "


id: 6a48f0aefa208bc6659a588016f69c73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14322
content:
"Table 4.5 |  Selected observed impacts on cultural water uses of Indigenous Peoples (also see Figure 4.6)."


id: 5d0b0319cc4afbf91ae09c5ba98f1872
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12154
content:
"stresses, disparities and inequities (Yates et  al., 2021). In the Arctic, \r\nfor example, increased rates of development and resource extraction, \r\nincluding hydropower dams, mining, fisheries and sport hunting, all \r\nthreaten water quality, habitat condition and the ecosystem services \r\nprovided by Arctic freshwaters (Mustonen and Mustonen, 2016; Knopp \r\net al., 2020)."


id: b1e2b12019275fffb21337386dc0f57
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25491
content:
"In summary, the cultural water uses of Indigenous Peoples, local \r\ncommunities and traditional peoples are being impacted by climate \r\nchange (high confidence), with implications for cultural practices and \r\nfood and income security, particularly in the Arctic, high-mountain \r\nareas and small low-lying islands."


id: 5de5211d63762191c7100372abc91f06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12306
content:
"WGI (Douville et al., 2021) concludes with high confidence that without \r\nlarge-scale reduction in GHG emissions, global warming is projected \r\nto cause substantial changes in the water cycle at both global and \r\nregional scales. However, WGI also noted large uncertainties in many \r\naspects of regional water cycle projections by climate models. Water \r\ncycle variability and extremes are projected to increase faster than \r\naverage changes in most regions of the world and under all emission \r\nscenarios (high confidence). The concept of 'wetter regions get wetter, \r\ndrier regions get drier' from AR5 (Collins et al., 2013) is assessed by \r\nAR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) as too simplistic. WGI (Seneviratne \r\net al., 2021) further concludes that heavy precipitation will generally \r\nbecome more frequent and more intense with additional global \r\nwarming."


id: 256ab205e46922477daa5aa91cbeea7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3312
content:
"The terrestrial hydrological cycle is projected to intensify through a higher \r\nexchange of water between the land surface and the atmosphere. A rise of \r\nnear-surface atmospheric water capacity is projected because of greater \r\nwarming leading to changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, the \r\nintensification of the convection processes, and the increased temperature \r\nof the underlying surface. Continuation of projected warming and other \r\nphysical mechanisms will further accelerate the melting of snow cover \r\nand glaciers and thawing of permafrost (high confidence)."


id: 476a7512ad81f8080b30e5792fd2d9fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8624
content:
"In the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, as in previous generations of \r\nensembles, the projected changes in annual mean precipitation vary \r\nsubstantially across the world. Importantly, in most land regions, the \r\nfuture changes are subject to high uncertainty even in the sign of the \r\nprojected change (high confidence). Figure 4.10 illustrates this using \r\nthe 5th, 50th and 95th percentile changes across the ensemble at \r\nindividual grid points. For any given location, the range of projected \r\nchanges generally increases with global warming (high confidence)."


id: aa522e11da3f446554fab6774aba98f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24335
content:
"Methodologically, the projected changes in the hydrological cycle due to \r\nclimate change are assessed directly from climate models or hydrological \r\nsystem models driven by the climate models' projections (SM4.1). The \r\nlatter is simulated by the CMIP-based multi-model experiments carried \r\nout under the scenarios of future climate forcing and socioeconomic \r\nchanges (e.g., RCPs, SSPs scenarios) or the pre-assigned global warming \r\nlevels over the 21st century. Since AR5, there has been an improvement \r\nof the physical basis of the climate change impact projections owing \r\nto the advances in modelling clouds, precipitation, surface fluxes, \r\nvegetation, snow, floodplains, groundwater and other processes \r\nrelevant to the water cycle (Douville et al., 2021) (SM4.1)."


id: 16913bc1cbedc1ce663e3ad26bc1d0d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1076
content:
"For example, in parts of the Indian sub-continent, the projected changes \r\nin mean precipitation at 1.5degC global warming range from a 10-20% \r\ndecrease to a 40-50% increase. The multi-model median change is close \r\nto zero. Most other regions show a smaller range of changes (except for \r\nvery dry regions where a small absolute change in precipitation appears \r\nas a larger percentage change). Nevertheless, across most global land \r\nregions, both increases and decreases in precipitation are projected \r\nacross the ensemble. At 1.5degC global warming, a complete consensus "


id: dfea2c2fdfc2b53656e917015836511c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32723
content:
"Figure 4.10 |  Projected percentage changes in annual mean precipitation at global warming levels (GWLs) of 4degC (top), 2degC (middle) and 1.5degC (bottom) \r\nfor the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble of GCMs driven by the SSP5-8.5 scenario. For any given GWL, similar ranges of changes are seen with other scenarios that reach \r\nthat GWL, and the difference between scenarios is smaller than the ensemble uncertainty (Seneviratne et al., 2021). The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the \r\n5th, 50th and 95th percentile precipitation changes in individual grid boxes. Note that these are uncertainties at the individual point and are not spatially coherent, that is, they \r\ndo not represent plausible global patterns of change. Results for 1.5degC, 2degC and 4degC global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850-1900 and use 40, 40 and 31 \r\nensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4degC global warming."


id: e8083c0fcc1e62c5725ce4c812666d92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34006
content:
"on increased precipitation is seen only in the central and eastern Sahel, \r\nsouth-central Asia, parts of Greenland and Antarctica, and the far \r\nnorthern regions of North America and Asia, with projected increases \r\nin the latter ranging up to 20-30%. No land regions see a complete \r\nconsensus on decreased precipitation, but South America, southern \r\nAfrica and the Mediterranean region show a stronger consensus towards \r\nreduced precipitation."


id: d7ae4822df2cf6ba8bfd500829a4e154
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31461
content:
"The geographical patterns of local agreement/disagreement in \r\nprojected precipitation change remain broadly similar with increased \r\nglobal warming, but the range of uncertainty generally increases \r\n(high confidence). For example, in northeastern Amazonia, the driest \r\nprojections increase from a 10% decrease at 1.5degC global warming \r\nto a 40% decrease at 4degC global warming. In comparison, the wettest \r\nprojections remain at up to a 10% increase. In the far north of North \r\nAmerica and Asia, the higher end of projected increases in precipitation \r\nextends to approximately 40-60%. A few regions are projected to \r\nsee a shift in the consensus on the sign of the change. These include \r\nparts of the Indian sub-continent where at 4degC global warming, the \r\nprojected changes shift to a consensus on increased precipitation \r\nranging between a few percent to over 70%."


id: f4a91e129e494685b734cfcb0374d753
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35999
content:
"spells are projected to become shorter by up to 20-30 d. In much \r\nof South America, dry spells could increase by over 40 d or decrease \r\nby over 10 d. Similar global patterns with smaller magnitudes of \r\nchange are projected for 2degC and 1.5degC global warming in all three \r\npercentiles (Figure 4.13d,e,f,g,h,i)."


id: 3ba3d25a2514077124082b1b572be8f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6738
content:
"Taken together, these projections of more intense precipitation and \r\nchanges in the length of dry spells give a clear picture of increasingly \r\nvolatile precipitation regimes, with many regions seeing both longer \r\ndry spells and heavier events when precipitation does occur (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: 3135edd1da80d3db62a1746495108d56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5165
content:
"The critical knowledge gap for precipitation projections is the ability \r\nto make precise projections. With such large uncertainties in many \r\nregions, climate model projections can inform risk assessments, but \r\ncannot provide confident predictions of specific outcomes."


id: 1cbd71cd58645eea64dd5d5d58e52b5d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1974
content:
"In summary, the annual mean precipitation range is projected to \r\nincrease or decrease by up to 40% or more at 4degC global warming \r\nover many land areas. The ranges of projected precipitation changes \r\nare smaller at lower levels of global warming (high confidence). \r\nEither an increase or decrease is possible in most regions, but there \r\nis an agreement among models on the increase in the far north \r\n(high confidence). There is a stronger model consensus on heavy \r\nprecipitation increasing with global warming over most land areas \r\n(high confidence). There are widely varying projections of change in dry \r\nspell length (high confidence), but in regions with increasing projected \r\ndry spells, the potential increase is larger at higher levels of global \r\nwarming (high confidence)."


id: d011a64e55d4cc84d9232263d3790ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30269
content:
"In the 50th percentile projections at 4degC global warming, dry \r\nspells are projected to become up to 40 d longer in South America \r\nand southern Africa and up to 20 d shorter in large parts of Asia \r\n(Figure 4.13a,b,c). In most regions, the projected changes in dry spell \r\nlengths are highly uncertain. In southern Africa, the increase in dry \r\nspell length ranges from 10 d to over 40 d. In northeast Asia, dry "


id: 115bb905d53187a58c31efb517cc1a49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 215
content:
"evaporation (Skinner et  al., 2017), but LAI may not increase in \r\nareas where it is already high (Lemordant et  al., 2018). Projected \r\nET decreases from physiological effects alone are widespread but \r\ngreatest in tropical forests (Swann et  al., 2016; Kooperman et  al., \r\n2018)."


id: ba78a6f5fea081d870edc527755157d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26872
content:
"AR5 (Collins et  al., 2013) found that the CMIP5 model projections \r\nof ET increases or decreases followed the same pattern over land \r\nas precipitation projections, with additional impacts of reduced \r\ntranspiration due to plant stomatal closure in response to rising CO2\r\nconcentrations. AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) assessed that it is very \r\nlikely that ET will increase over land, with regional exceptions in drying \r\nareas."


id: 752a1b1143f427be358427faa37bbf6b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16030
content:
"Future changes in regional ET are therefore highly uncertain. The \r\nCMIP6 multi-model ensemble projects changes in ET varying both \r\nin magnitude and sign across the ensemble members (Figure 4.14). \r\nAt 4degC global warming, the ensemble median projection shows \r\nincreased ET of approximately 25% in mid/high latitudes but \r\ndecreases of up to 10% across most of tropical South America, \r\nsouthern Africa and Australia. These CMIP6 ensemble projections \r\nresemble ET changes projected by the CMIP5 ensemble, except \r\nover central Africa and Southeast Asia (Berg and Sheffield, 2019). \r\nHowever, the ensemble ranges are wide and include both increases \r\nand decreases in projected ET in many locations, with mid-latitude \r\nET increases being up to approximately 50% and ET decreases in \r\nsouthern Africa being up to approximately 30%. Projected changes "


id: 9c41241152b37882cdead73f43f2fee0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22137
content:
"In most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, projected ET changes are driven not \r\njust by meteorological conditions and soil moisture but also by plant \r\nphysiological responses to elevated CO2, which themselves influence \r\nmeteorology and soil moisture through surface fluxes (Halladay and \r\nGood, 2017; Lemordant and Gentine, 2019). Elevated CO2 causes \r\nstomatal closure which decreases ET, but also increases leaf area \r\nindex (LAI) which in turn increases ET, but these do not necessarily \r\ncompensate (Skinner et al., 2017). Higher LAI increases transpiration, \r\ndepleting soil moisture but increasing shading, thus reducing soil "


id: 7ff87ee5e10024cfee98a5586715ee19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17677
content:
"are proportionally smaller at lower levels of global warming, while \r\npatterns of change remain similar.\r\n4.4.1.3 Projected Changes in Soil Moisture"


id: 2f5cd7c307cd03743c4a04d1fadadb33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4871
content:
"AR5 (Collins et al., 2013) mainly focused on surface (upper 10 cm) soil \r\nmoisture, summarising multi-model projections of 21st century annual \r\nmean soil moisture changes as broadly decreasing in the subtropics \r\nand Mediterranean region and increasing in east Africa and central \r\nAsia across the RCPs, with the changes tending to become stronger \r\nas global warming increases. AR6 WGI (Douville et  al., 2021) draw \r\nbroadly similar conclusions based on new ESMs, noting that compared \r\nto CMIP5, the CMIP6 models project more consistent drying in the \r\nAmazon basin, Siberia, westernmost North Africa and southwestern \r\nAustralia. WGI (Douville et al., 2021) also note that soil moisture in \r\nthe upper 10 cm shows more widespread drying than in the total soil \r\ncolumn."


id: 62ca262f46babb0b9db36cb06ba9bd2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13112
content:
"The relative importance of the physiological and radiative effects of \r\nCO2 on future ET is a crucial knowledge gap, partly because many \r\nESM land surface schemes still use representations of this process \r\nbased on older experimental studies. Furthermore, large-scale \r\nexperimental studies using free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) techniques \r\nto constrain the models have not yet been performed in certain \r\ncritical ecosystems, such as tropical forests. Finally, uncertainties in \r\nequilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) imply uncertainties in the CO2\r\nconcentration accompanying any given level of warming (Betts and \r\nMcNeall, 2018)."


id: f10e1669d232533c5172b6b8545b63b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35422
content:
"In summary, the sign of projected ET change depends on region, but \r\nthere is medium confidence that ET will increase in the global mean \r\nand mid/high latitudes and decrease in northern South America and \r\nsouthern Africa. In addition, the impacts of rising CO2 concentrations \r\non plant stomata and leaf area play a role in model projections of ET \r\nchange (high confidence), but there is low confidence in their overall \r\ncontribution to global ET change."


id: 8fd131f295b0d7c5c25f4504cc84a7ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20162
content:
"The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble of ESMs show varying levels of \r\nconsensus on projected changes in surface soil moisture with global \r\nwarming (Figure 4.15). As in CMIP5 (Cheng et al., 2017), uncertainties \r\nare substantial, often associated with uncertainties in projected \r\nregional precipitation changes (Section 4.4.1.1), and in most regions, \r\nboth increases and decreases are projected across the ensemble. In the \r\nfar north of North America and Asia, projected changes in soil moisture \r\nat 4degC global warming range from a 20-30% decrease to an increase \r\nof 30-40%. In northern mid-latitudes, projections range from a 10-\r\n20% decrease to an increase of 20-30%, except for eastern North "


id: 6ab6edd774695cd51faab45161b91360
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14406
content:
"America, where the projected changes (both increases and decreases) \r\nare less than 10%, and western Europe and the Mediterranean where \r\nthere is a stronger consensus towards decreased soil moisture of up \r\nto 25%. South America, southern Africa and Asia also show a stronger \r\nconsensus towards decreased soil moisture of up to 40% or more in \r\nsome regions."


id: 5c780f7e8092767526396ee420f23dc9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12064
content:
"warming, the relative importance of climate effects and the direct \r\neffects of CO2 on transpiration depend on the CO2 concentration \r\naccompanying that level of warming (Betts and McNeall, 2018). \r\nSome CMIP6 models have very high climate sensitivities (Meehl \r\net al., 2020), which are assessed as being of low probability on the \r\nbasis of other lines of evidence (Sherwood et al., 2020). This means \r\nthat the CO2 concentration accompanying specific global warming \r\nlevels may be too low and lead to overly large projections of soil \r\nmoisture decrease in those models."


id: 5b816e5944c2aeeac270d184da9f3ff1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11898
content:
"Most CMIP6 models simulate direct CO2 effects on plant transpiration, \r\nwhich has been shown to be a strong influence on projected future \r\nchanges in soil moisture (Milly and Dunne, 2016). Approaches \r\nthat neglect this process project greater decreases in soil moisture \r\navailability than the climate models (Roderick et  al., 2015; Swann \r\net  al., 2016). Therefore, although several studies project increased \r\nglobal aridity and dryland expansion (Feng and Fu, 2013; Sherwood \r\nand Fu, 2014; Huang et  al., 2016a), these may overestimate future \r\ndrying (Berg et al., 2017). Nevertheless, land surface models, including \r\nvegetation responses to CO2, still project reduced soil moisture in many \r\nregions (Grillakis, 2019)."


id: 7abfb5275f7e2d159af51ee4dc92a16d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16891
content:
"In summary, projected soil moisture changes increase with levels of \r\nglobal warming (high confidence), although there remains substantial \r\ndisagreement on specific regional changes. In the CMIP6 multi\u0002model ensemble at 4degC global warming, decreased soil moisture of \r\nup to 40% is projected in Amazonia, southern Africa and western \r\nEurope in all models (high confidence). In all other regions, there is \r\nno consensus on the sign of projected soil moisture changes, and \r\nprojected changes at 4degC global warming include decreases of up to \r\n30% and increases of up to 40%. Projected changes are smaller at \r\nlower levels of global warming, with similar geographical patterns \r\nof change."


id: 49a9ba032973547f6949bf67dc47116e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8981
content:
"A critical knowledge gap concerns the relative importance of \r\nclimate and CO2 physiological effects on soil moisture, in relation \r\nto uncertainties in climate sensitivity. For a given level of global "


id: 503fc378b510aaf0a1841623526a26f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10067
content:
"4\r\nFigure 4.15 |  Projected percentage changes in annual mean total column soil moisture relative to 1981-2010 at global warming levels (GWLs) of 4degC (top), \r\n2degC (middle) and 1.5degC (bottom) for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble of GCMs driven by SSP5-8.5 concentrations. The distribution of outcomes is shown at local \r\nscales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile soil moisture changes in individual grid boxes. Note that these are uncertainties at individual points and are not spatially coherent, \r\nthat is, they do not represent plausible global patterns of change. Results for 1.5degC, 2degC and 4degC global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850-1900 and use \r\n34, 34 and 26 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4degC global warming. Fewer models are shown here than in Figure 4.10 on precipitation and \r\nFigure 4.14 on ET because some do not provide soil moisture output."


id: c2ce370b5eb38bf10da62297082e813b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28229
content:
"Global glacier mass loss since 2015 and 2100 was projected to be 18 \r\n+- 13% by 2100 with 0.9 - 2.3degC global warming and 36 +- 20% with \r\n3.2 - 5.4degC global warming (Marzeion et al., 2020), which corresponds \r\nwith previous findings (Radic et al., 2014; Hock et al., 2019a; Shannon \r\net al., 2019). The regional glacier loss rate projections are unevenly \r\ndistributed worldwide and considerably vary between scenarios (Huss \r\nand Hock, 2018; Hock et  al., 2019a). In most regions, 'peak water' \r\nhas already been reached or is expected to be reached before mid\u0002century (with an earlier 'peak water' for RCP2.6 scenario compared \r\nwith RCP8.5) (Huss and Hock, 2018; Pritchard, 2019; Marzeion et al., \r\n2020; Rounce et al., 2020). The influence of the expected subsequent \r\ndecrease in glacier runoff by the end of the 21st century will be more \r\npronounced during droughts and dry seasons (Farinotti et al., 2016; \r\nHuss and Fischer, 2016; Hanzer et al., 2018; Brunner et al., 2019)."


id: 85a997a243c46c0022c84de002988d5d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18569
content:
"Such changes in runoff could potentially lead to water shortages for \r\nover 200 million people in the high mountains of Asia (Pritchard, 2019; \r\nShahgedanova et al., 2020). There is medium confidence that under a 4degC \r\nwarming scenario, 40% of current irrigated demand in sub-basins relying \r\nprimarily on snowmelt runoff would need to be supplemented from other \r\nwater sources (Qin et al., 2020). Basins where such alternate sources "


id: 27834854ec1a3df9e5373bf8a5241d20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3619
content:
"are not available will face agricultural water scarcity (Section  4.5.1). \r\nGlobally, 1.5 billion people are projected to critically depend on runoff \r\nfrom the mountains by the mid-21st century under the RCP6.0 scenario \r\n(Viviroli et  al., 2020). Furthermore, there is medium confidence that \r\nprojected changes in snow and glacier melt runoff will affect water \r\ninputs to hydropower, leading to a decline in hydroelectricity production \r\nin mountain basins, for example, in India (Ali et al., 2018), Switzerland \r\n(Schaefli et al., 2019) and the USA (Lee et al., 2016) (Section 4.5.2) (IPCC \r\nAR6 WGI, 2021) (Sections 9.5.1.3 and 8.4.1.7.1)."


id: 2a8ef0cfa1745dc15323db1d83565fe5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4121
content:
"There is a high agreement between the CMIP6 projections and the \r\nprevious findings that permafrost will undergo increasing thaw and \r\ndegradation during the 21st century worldwide (Fox-Kemper et  al., \r\n2021) . The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume \r\nin the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10-40% for every degree \r\nincrease of global temperature (Burke et  al., 2020; Yokohata et  al., \r\n2020b). The CMIP5-based equilibrium sensitivity of permafrost extent \r\nto stabilised global mean warming is established to be about 4.0 x \r\n106 km2\r\n degC-1 (Chadburn et  al., 2017). The southern boundary of the \r\npermafrost is projected the move to the north: 1deg-3.5deg northward \r\n(relative to 1986-2005) at the level of 1.5degC temperature rise (Kong \r\nand Wang, 2017)."


id: 2ff3168d8834bb9140c1bf7dfcf15cba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4972
content:
"The observational knowledge gaps (Section  4.2.2) impede efforts \r\nto calibrate and evaluate models that simulate the past and future \r\nevolution of the cryosphere and its social impacts."


id: 2e18a6be6f6a688b6c8053c5067e8415
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4693
content:
"In summary, in most basins fed by glaciers, runoff is projected to \r\nincrease initially in the 21st century and then decline (medium \r\nconfidence). Projections suggest a further decrease in seasonal snow \r\ncover extent and mass in mid to high latitudes and high mountains \r\n(high confidence), though the projection spread is considerable. \r\nPermafrost will continue to thaw throughout the 21st century (high \r\nconfidence). There is medium confidence that future changes in \r\ncryospheric components will negatively affect irrigated agriculture \r\nand hydropower production in regions dependent on snowmelt \r\nrunoff."


id: bf14476bdb37edf9e38f4179439d5cd5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27617
content:
"Considering a wider set of projections, the consensus on increased flows \r\nbecomes stronger at higher GWLs in (for example) the Yukon, Mackenzie, \r\nKemijoki, Amur, Hwang Ho, Yangtze, Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra, \r\nNile, Zaire and Parana basins (Figure 4.16). The consensus on decreased \r\nflows becomes stronger for higher GWLs in (for example) the Colorado, \r\nTagus, Helmand, Tigris-Euphrates and Amazon. However, in both cases, \r\nsome models have projected changes of the opposite sign to the \r\nconsensus. Moreover, the distribution of projected outcomes becomes \r\nnotably broader at higher GWLs in (for example) the Mississippi, Yangtze \r\nand Amazon. Therefore, even with a strong global climate change signal, "


id: e9dbe43b05a04bd214266c2ca0090e0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34289
content:
"14 CMIP5 climate models driven by the RCP4.5 scenario, one third of \r\nthe 56 large-scale glacierised catchments are projected to experience \r\na mean annual runoff decline by over 10%, with the most significant \r\nreductions in central Asia and the Andes (Huss and Hock, 2018). Thus, \r\ncommunities dependent on glacier runoff are particularly vulnerable \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014)."


id: 107acb502c41942711b523c22d4f038
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 75
content:
"uncertainties in changes in mean runoff/streamflow can remain large or \r\neven increase. Nevertheless, since projected changes typically increase \r\nwith global warming, limiting warming to 1.5degC or 2degC substantially \r\nreduces the potential for either large increases or decreases in mean \r\nstreamflow compared to 3degC or 4degC (Warszawski et al., 2014; Falkner, \r\n2016; Gosling et al., 2017; Figure 4.16) (high confidence)."


id: 76a6bcc47d03e2cbeaefd22fae3c0de9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16250
content:
"Societal impacts of change in runoff spread throughout several \r\nsocioeconomic sectors, such as agriculture, health and energy \r\nproduction, affecting overall water security (Wang et  al., 2021a). \r\nDecreases in runoff may lead to water scarcity and result in increased \r\nmulti-sectoral effects in sub-Saharan Africa (Serdeczny et  al., 2017), \r\nwestern Africa, the Middle East, Mexico, Northeastern Brazil, central \r\nArgentina, Mediterranean Africa and Europe (Gosling and Arnell, 2016; \r\nGreve et al., 2018), and southeastern Australia (Barnett et al., 2015)."


id: fa38f44c020d053764a7fc9f9481d4d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36886
content:
"SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) concluded with medium confidence\r\nthat global warming of 2degC would lead to an expansion of the area \r\naffected by flood hazards, compared to conditions at 1.5degC global \r\nwarming. Both AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014) and SROCC (Hock \r\net al., 2019b) concluded that spring snowmelt floods would be earlier \r\n(high confidence), and hazards from floods involving meltwater will \r\ngradually diminish, particularly at low elevation (medium confidence). \r\nSROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) and AR6 WGI Chapter 9 stated that given \r\nlimited evidence and the complexity of the process, the changes of \r\nglacier-related floods under climate change are not clear. AR6 WGI \r\nChapters 8 and 11 summarised that there is medium confidence for a \r\ngeneral increase in flooding due to warming, but there are significant \r\nregional and seasonal variations."


id: 105b92c372b855d755281d1f6623580c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 59
content:
"By the end of the 21st century, global changes in streamflow extremes \r\nare projected to be approximately twice as large with RCP8.5 (over \r\n4degC GWL) than with RCP2.6 (approximately 2degC GWL) (Asadieh and \r\nKrakauer, 2017)."


id: 34ca95d9131f057b15f79281907191f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5711
content:
"There is high confidence that the frequency and magnitude of river \r\nfloods are projected to change at a global scale. For example, the \r\nfrequency of river floods is projected to increase in many regions, \r\nincluding Asia, central Africa, western Europe, Central and South "


id: f45c8110bc9aa88ff0e0bc96adacbe77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35951
content:
"Glacier retreat and associated runoff changes represent a major global \r\nsustainability concern (Section 4.4.2). By 2100, using an ensemble of "


id: e720a011351fdaf9c55ff08256757ab4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33859
content:
"magnitude, together with an increase in rain-fed winter floods, is \r\nprojected with medium confidence, for example, in mid-latitude and \r\nlow-altitude basins of Scandinavia (Arheimer and Lindstrom, 2015; \r\nVormoor et al., 2016) and throughout Europe as a whole (Kundzewicz \r\net al., 2017), and northeastern North America (Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes, "


id: dfb905fdc3c6950587d1d46e3e81b249
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32697
content:
"America and eastern North America, and decrease in northern North \r\nAmerica, southern South America, the Mediterranean and eastern \r\nEurope in 2050 and beyond (Koirala et al., 2014; Arnell et al., 2016) \r\n(Figure  4.17). There is low agreement in projections in changes \r\nto snowmelt flood magnitude. A negative trend in snowmelt flood "


id: 7c99316712231f35c3fd1b29b275d9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17198
content:
"Table 4.6 |  Projected economic impact by river flooding in billion USD in different emission scenarios or for different global warming levels (GWLs). The percentage of the total \r\nGDP of the region is given in brackets."


id: 32958f98d3aca4217be816aaecbe64a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5377
content:
"people per year per country projected to be affected (Figure 4.17; Alfieri \r\net al., 2017; Hirabayashi et al., 2021b). Kinoshita et al. (2018) showed \r\nthat climate change contributes a 2.8-28.8% increase in global fatality \r\nfor the period 2071-2100 compared to 1991-2005, but socioeconomic \r\nchange (~131.3% increase) and associated vulnerability change (~72.1% \r\nreduction) have a greater impact of the projected flood-related fatality \r\nrate than climate change alone. Winsemius et al. (2016) discussed that \r\nprojected flood damage could be reduced to 1/20th in absolute value \r\nwith adequate adaptation strategies. Direct flood damages are projected \r\nto increase by 4-5 times at 4degC compared to 1.5degC, highly depending on \r\nscenarios and assumptions (Table 4.6; Box 4.7)."


id: 1df2538e89dac8333b1bec8a37532dc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2141
content:
"2014). With medium confidence, a positive trend is projected in high\u0002latitude basins, for example, for large Arctic rivers such as Lena and \r\nMackenzie (Eisner et al., 2017; Gelfan et al., 2017; Pechlivanidis et al., \r\n2017) and high-altitude upstreams, such as the Ganges, Brahmaputra, \r\nSalween, Mekong and the upper Indus Basin (Lutz et al., 2014) and \r\nalpine catchments (Hall et al., 2014). Moderate decreasing trends or \r\ninsignificant changes are projected for snowmelt floods in the Fraser \r\nRiver Basin of British Columbia (Shrestha et al., 2017)."


id: 51ddc19a88c43bc1c7c5566d1fc17f4f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10341
content:
"There is high confidence that climate change and projected socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment would increase exposure in inundation areas (Figure 4.17), \r\nresulting in a large increase in direct flood damages as several times \r\nmore in all warming levels (Table 4.6). Alfieri et al. (2017) estimated a \r\n120 and 400% increase in population affected by river flooding for 2degC \r\nand 4degC warming, respectively, and a 170% increase in damage for 2degC \r\nwarming without socioeconomic impact development (Section  4.7.5). \r\nDottori et al. (2018) estimated the same but with a 134% increase in \r\nfatalities with population increase under the SSP3 scenario. The highest \r\nnumbers of people affected by river flooding are projected for countries \r\nin southern, eastern and southeastern Asia, with tens of millions of "


id: fdf0e025857922efd651f5070e20bba5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37473
content:
"In all climate scenarios projected, earlier snowmelt leads to earlier \r\nspring floods (high confidence), for example, in northern and eastern \r\nEurope (Gobiet et al., 2014; Hall et al., 2014; Etter et al., 2017; Lobanova \r\net al., 2018), northern North America (Vano et al., 2015; Musselman \r\net al., 2018; Islam et al., 2019b), large Arctic rivers (Gelfan et al., 2017; \r\nPechlivanidis et al., 2017) and high-altitude Asian basins (Lutz et al., \r\n2014; Winsemius et al., 2016). There is high confidence that snowmelt \r\nfloods will occur 25-30 d earlier in the year by the end of the 21st "


id: 5d01bc1f62ba7701db466069009b6171
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12151
content:
"century with RCP8.5, but there is only low agreement in the projected \r\nmagnitude of snowmelt flood (Arheimer and Lindstrom, 2015; Vormoor \r\net al., 2016; Islam et al., 2019b)."


id: 5c6d8fc678b4f9e9312af47d5f1d38d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12057
content:
"America and western North America, future aridification will far exceed \r\nthe magnitude of change seen in the last millennium (high confidence). \r\nWGI (Seneviratne et al., 2021) also find many consistencies among \r\nprojections of climate change effects on different forms of drought \r\n(meteorological, agricultural/ecological and hydrological drought, \r\n4.2.5), but also significant differences in some regions, particularly in \r\nthe levels of confidence in projected changes."


id: a173157a095345fca7822eaeda167289
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22960
content:
"Many studies focus on precipitation-based drought indices (Carrao \r\net al., 2018), but higher evaporative demands and changes in snow \r\ncover are additional drivers of hydrological, agricultural and ecological \r\ndrought (medium confidence) in many regions of the world (Koirala \r\net al., 2014; Prudhomme et al., 2014; Touma et al., 2015; Wanders et al., \r\n2015; Zhao and Dai, 2015; Naumann et al., 2018; Cook et al., 2020a). \r\nFurthermore, these droughts (hydrological, agricultural and ecological) \r\nare often modulated by prevailing soil and hydro-morphological \r\ncharacteristics. Therefore, the choice of drought definition can affect \r\nthe magnitude and even the sign of the projected drought change."


id: 8caaf515d54980dc81150406df7b9f72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19649
content:
"Floods and their societal impacts, especially the enhancement of hazards \r\nand increase in vulnerability, depend on complex political, economic \r\nand cultural processes (Carey et al., 2017; Caretta et al., 2021). Thus, \r\nassessments that analyse long-term flood impacts need to account \r\nfor the interplay of water and society relations. Unfortunately, such \r\nstudies remain scarce (Pande and Sivapalan, 2017; Ferdous et al., 2018; \r\nCaretta et  al., 2021). In particular, projected socioeconomic, cultural \r\nand political impacts on the vulnerable group are understudied, as is \r\ntheir resourcefulness through LK, adaptive capacity and community\u0002led adaptation (Sections  4.6.9; 4.8.4; Cross-Chapter Box  INDIG in \r\nChapter 18)."


id: a8de893fa5bfbd0775f2b5807486581f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24096
content:
"Compared to CMIP5, the CMIP6 ensemble projects more consistent \r\ndrying in the Amazon basin (Parsons, 2020), more extensive declines in \r\ntotal soil moisture in Siberia (Cook et al., 2020a) and stronger declines in \r\nwesternmost North Africa and southwestern Australia. Projected declines \r\nin soil moisture in these geographies would cause a significant risk of \r\nagricultural drought. Also, importantly, projected changes in drought in "


id: 68745665a38b72af25368ecdad049334
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14021
content:
"AR6 WGI (Douville et  al., 2021) concluded that the total land area \r\nsubject to increasing drought frequency and severity would expand \r\n(high confidence), and in the Mediterranean, southwestern South "


id: e14e03a6558601a22c5c4244e7de7a0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32941
content:
"many regions depend on the season and may not be evident in annual \r\nmean changes. For example, in northwestern Asia, hydrological (runoff) \r\ndrought frequency is projected to decrease by 50-100% in autumn and \r\nwinter but increase by up to 250% in spring and summer (Cook et al., \r\n2020a). In contrast, meteorological (precipitation) drought frequency is \r\nprojected to increase by up to 350% throughout the year."


id: 375427abb23ec0db27a59a620a9d36bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6089
content:
"Uncertainties in regional climate changes are significant in many \r\nregions (see Figure 4.10, Figure 4.13, Figure 4.15), and in climate model \r\nensembles, the range of regional outcomes generally increases with \r\nglobal warming. This widening of the range of outcomes can contribute \r\nto the increased likelihood of extreme droughts across the ensemble \r\nas a whole (Figure 4.18, right column). The response of transpiration \r\nto elevated CO2 is also a significant uncertainty. The inclusion of CO2\r\nphysiological effects leads to smaller projected increases in agricultural, \r\necological or hydrological drought (Milly and Dunne, 2016; Yang et al., "


id: 976bf4615a36c97e3605cf6b7f2b4466
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21353
content:
"Drought projections are subject to uncertainties due to limits of \r\npredictability and understanding of the relevant biophysical processes. "


id: cc7a537b656be69d7499a8c29441f974
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29705
content:
"(a) Fractional global land area under moderate-to-severe drought (top), defined as -0.8<=TWS-DSI<-1.6, and extreme-to-exceptional drought (bottom), defined as TWS-DSI < -1.6.\r\n(b) Fraction of global population exposed to moderate-to-severe (top) and extreme-to-exceptional (bottom) drought, using the SSP2 population projection. Dark lines show the \r\nensemble means; shaded areas indicate uncertainty as +- 1 standard deviation. Reproduced from Pokhrel et al. (2021)."


id: d8eb06612c65ba0a6ab48aab384854f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31637
content:
"Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is the sum of continental water stored \r\nin canopies, snow and ice, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, soil \r\nand groundwater (Pokhrel et  al., 2021). TWS drought can therefore \r\nbe considered to be a combination of agricultural, ecological and \r\nhydrological drought. The proportion of the global population exposed \r\nto TWS drought is projected to increase with ongoing climate change \r\n(Figure 4.19). By the late 21st century, under RCP6.0, the global land \r\narea in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought is projected to increase \r\nfrom 3% to 7% (Pokhrel et  al., 2021), with increasing uncertainty \r\nover time. Combined with a medium population growth scenario \r\n(SSP2), this leads to the global population in this level of drought \r\nincreasing from 3% to 8%, again with increasing uncertainty over \r\ntime. Hydrological droughts can also be driven by direct human impact \r\nvia water abstraction (Javadinejad et al., 2019)."


id: 1a85c17939a5e8daa7b5ecf1eda4cc73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1655
content:
"Projected impacts of climate change on groundwater systems are \r\ncommonly simulated using models at local to global scales (Bierkens and \r\nWada, 2019). The relations between climate change and groundwater \r\nare more complex than those embedded in current numerical models \r\n(Cuthbert et  al., 2019b). For instance, groundwater systems register \r\neffects of drought with several years of lag effect, and aquifer response \r\ntimes to changes in hydraulic forcing also vary across aquifers (Cuthbert \r\net al., 2019a). For instance, long groundwater response times can buffer \r\ndrought impacts and lengthen recovery times to sustained drought \r\nevents (Van Lanen et al., 2013; Opie et al., 2020)."


id: abf9971ed2544b3ea7e0282e9106c5cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24578
content:
"Global total and non-renewable groundwater withdrawals are \r\nprojected to increase from 952 km3\r\n year-1 (2010) to 1621 km3 year-1\r\n(2099) and from 304 km3\r\n year-1 (2010) to 597 km3 year-1 (2099), \r\nrespectively (Bierkens and Wada, 2019). At the same time, groundwater \r\ndepletion is projected to increase from approximately 204 (+- 30) km3\r\nyear-1 in 2000 to 427 (+- 56) km3\r\n year-1 by 2099 (Wada, 2016). Much \r\nof the projected depletion is a function of increased future abstraction \r\nof groundwater for irrigation and increased ET (Condon et al., 2020) \r\nin a warmer climate. For example, the projected doubling of average \r\nwater use by 2050 in Tunisia is attributed partly (3.8-16.4%) to climate \r\nchange and mainly to socioeconomic policies (Guermazi et al., 2019). \r\nSimilarly, groundwater depletion in the Bengal Basin and North China \r\nPlain is more due to irrigation development than climate change per se \r\n(Leng et al., 2015; Kirby et al., 2016)."


id: 5148d169a4d72dc1d5199ab278bfbd10
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10244
content:
"Critical knowledge gaps include uncertainties in regional drought due \r\nto regional climate change uncertainties, challenges in constraining \r\nplant physiological responses to atmospheric CO2, and the uncertainties \r\nin modelling the role of different population projections in projecting \r\nregional drought risk."


id: 4a123563ecdb1a1e293bbd9ea759cb9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9057
content:
"In summary, the likelihood of drought is projected to increase in many \r\nregions over the 21st century (high confidence) even with strong \r\nclimate change mitigation, and more severely in the absence of this. \r\nDifferent forms of drought broadly show similar patterns of projected \r\nchange in many regions (high confidence), but the frequency of \r\nagricultural drought is projected to increase over wider areas than for \r\nmeteorological drought (medium confidence). Clarity on the definition \r\nof drought is therefore important for informing decision-making. With \r\nthe RCP6.0 and SSP2 scenarios, the global population exposed to \r\nextreme-to-exceptional terrestrial water storage drought is projected \r\nto increase from 3% to 8% over the 21st century."


id: 80a0565e2adfa03f32af6f7c0ace0147
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17765
content:
"like Bangladesh and vulnerable ecosystems like the mangrove forest of \r\nSundarbans (Befus et al., 2020; Dasgupta et al., 2020; Shamsudduha \r\net  al., 2020). However, hydrogeological properties, aquifer settings \r\nand impacts of over-abstraction are more important determinants of \r\nsalinisation of coastal aquifers than slowly rising sea levels (Michael \r\net al., 2013; Taylor et al., 2013a). The projected contribution of global \r\ngroundwater depletion to sea level rise is expected to increase from \r\n0.57 (+- 0.09) mm year-1 in 2000 to 0.82 (+- 0.13) mm year-1 by 2050, \r\ndriven by a growing trend in groundwater extraction (Wada, 2016). \r\nHowever, several uncertainties around model parametrisation remain \r\n(Wada et al., 2017)."


id: c741976c316935e91413edb3c309ac5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28939
content:
"There are several knowledge gaps in our understanding of the global\u0002scale sensitivity of groundwater systems to climate change and resulting \r\nfeedbacks (Maxwell and Condon, 2016; Cuthbert et al., 2019a). There \r\nare process uncertainties in groundwater recharge simulation due to the \r\npotential impact of atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and resulting changes \r\nin ET (Reinecke et al., 2021). There are uncertainties in impact models \r\ndue to poor representation of recharge pathways (diffuse compared to \r\nfocused) and inability to adequately capture feedbacks among climate, \r\nland use and groundwater systems (Meixner et al., 2016). Finally, there \r\nare gaps in long-term observational data, especially in less-developed \r\ncountries (Amanambu et al., 2020), making it challenging to evaluate \r\nthe performance of impact models (Gleeson et al., 2020)."


id: a4ebb975e377424ee7e8779c6e86706c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23516
content:
"Wu et al. (2020) reported a projected increase in future groundwater \r\nstorage in the semiarid regions of northwest India, North China Plain, \r\nthe Guarani Aquifer in South America and Canning Basin in Australia \r\ndue to significant increases in projected precipitation, but the models \r\ndo not consider local hydrogeological characteristics. However, the \r\nprojected irrigation expansion could negate this positive gain in \r\ngroundwater storage (Sishodia et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2020). In drylands \r\n(e.g., playas in the southwestern USA), where focused groundwater \r\nrecharge processes dominate, greater recharge is projected to \r\noccur from the increased number of significant runoff-generating \r\nextreme precipitation events in the future (McKenna and Sala, 2018). \r\nOverall, an emerging body of studies have projected amplification of \r\nepisodic recharge in the tropics and semiarid regions due to extreme \r\nprecipitation under global warming (medium confidence)."


id: 29b8dd39b5ad030f48f197d828a42643
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3997
content:
"In summary, groundwater abstraction is projected to deplete the long\u0002term, non-renewable storage as withdrawals are projected to increase \r\nsignificantly in all major aquifers worldwide (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). In the tropics and semiarid regions, growing precipitation \r\nintensification under global warming may enhance the resilience \r\nof groundwater through increased episodic recharge (medium \r\nconfidence). However, in the semiarid areas, over-abstraction continues \r\nto be a threat to groundwater storage and can nullify the benefits of \r\nincreased future recharge."


id: 31e1fd3f2ce58a3d388f2474f4962ee2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5263
content:
"AR5 concluded that climate change was projected to reduce water quality \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014). SR1.5 assessed with low confidence\r\ndifferences in projected impacts under 1.5degC compared with 2degC of \r\nwarming (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). In addition, SROCC reported \r\nwater quality degradation due to the release of legacy contaminants in \r\nglaciers and permafrost (medium confidence) (Hock et al., 2019b). The \r\nAR6 WGI Report does not explicitly mention water quality issues."


id: 1603bfd58bff89728a6ccf82f37b8299
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 987
content:
"Water insecurity due to water quality degradation is projected to \r\nincrease under climate change due to warming, enhanced floods and sea \r\nlevel rise (Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes, 2014; Dyer et al., 2014; Whitehead \r\net al., 2015) (medium confidence). Drought-driven diminishing river and \r\nlake levels (Jeppesen et al., 2015) and continued water abstraction for \r\nirrigation (Aragues et al., 2015) may contribute to the salinisation of \r\nsoil and water. In addition, warming is projected to disrupt the historical \r\nsequestration of contaminants in permafrost in the Arctic and mountain \r\nregions (Bond and Carr, 2018)."


id: a1a74e8ebcd9f04d0ffa0e1fc99ed64a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22990
content:
"16% with the SRES A1, B1, B2 scenarios in Vietnam and Laos (Giang \r\net al., 2017), 11% with the RCP8.5 scenario and 8% with the SRES \r\nA2 scenario in the USA (Yasarer et al., 2017 and Wagena et al., 2018, \r\nrespectively), 19-37% with the RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios in Burkina \r\nFaso (Op de Hipt et  al., 2018)) and decrease (30% with the SRES \r\nA1B scenario in the southwest USA (Francipane et al., 2015), 8-11% \r\nwith the SRES A1B scenario in Spain (Rodriguez-Blanco et al., 2016), \r\n11-52% with the RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios in Ethiopia (Gadissa et al., \r\n2018), 13-62% with the RCP2.6, RCP8.5 scenarios in Canada (Loiselle \r\net al., 2020)) over the different regions of the world in the 21st century."


id: 40dcfb705b8ca6f9e180a4a4d582ae1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7588
content:
"Post-fire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths \r\nof watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by \r\n>100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA with the SRES \r\nA1B scenario (Sankey et al., 2017)."


id: c8417ee5cfc3c95dac8df6c16c31b0d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29084
content:
"In summary, soil losses mainly depend on the combined effects of \r\nclimate and land use changes. Herewith, recent studies demonstrate \r\nincreasing impact of the projected climate change (increase of \r\nprecipitation, thawing permafrost) on soil erosion (medium confidence)."


id: 4741e9ae38875d8f9175c160f16de6e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8594
content:
"While there is some understanding of the potential effect of glacier \r\nand permafrost degradation on water quality, projections are lacking. \r\nResearch is limited mainly in Europe and North America, and quantifying \r\nthe future water quality changes is still incipient."


