# document

id: a6a423eefded00deb08495aa7b4dcd39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23743
content:
"In summary, climate change is projected to increase water pollution \r\nincidences, salinisation and eutrophication due to increasing \r\ndrought and flood events, sea level rise and water temperature rise, \r\nrespectively, in some local rivers and lakes, but there is a dearth of \r\nexact quantification at a global scale (medium confidence)."


id: ce0befd64614a508a12ce1e829abfcfb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
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vector_id: 29935
content:
"AR5 stated that soil erosion and sediment load are projected to change \r\n(low confidence) due to warming and increased rainfall intensity (Jimenez \r\nCisneros et al., 2014). SRCCL concluded that future climate change will \r\nincrease, with medium confidence, the potential for water-driven soil \r\nerosion in many dryland areas, causing soil organic carbon decline \r\n(Mirzabaev et al., 2019). SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) concluded \r\nthat because of the complex interactions among climate change, land \r\ncover, soil management, etc., the differences between mean annual \r\nsediment load under 1.5degC and 2degC of warming are unclear."


id: 938119a08a748b90261c73b4caff0c6b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
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content:
"AR5 concluded that overall irrigation water demand would increase by \r\n2080, while the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture will further increase \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). SR1.5 concluded that both the food and \r\nthe water sectors would be negatively impacted by global warming \r\nwith higher risks at 2degC than at 1.5degC, and these risks could coincide "


id: ae2b5b85bf5be5457545ac7430c01131
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
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vector_id: 24935
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"economic value are projected to become increasingly water dependent. \r\nFor example, climate-driven yield increases for tea are projected for \r\nvarious tea-producing regions if no water limitations and full irrigation \r\nis assumed, but decreases in yields are projected under continued \r\npresent-day irrigation assumptions (Beringer et al., 2020). Water-related \r\nimpacts on global cotton production are highly dependent on the CO2-\r\nfertilisation effect, with increases projected for higher CO2 concentration \r\nif no water limitations are implemented. However, substantial decreases \r\nin cotton production are projected if lower or no fertilisation effects are \r\naccounted for due to increasing water limitations (Jans et al., 2018). \r\nReductions in economically valuable crops will probably increase the \r\nvulnerability of population groups, especially small-holder farmers with \r\nlimited response options (Morel et al., 2019)."


id: ccc324c834115990cc5e5832a1c6bc86
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
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vector_id: 29756
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"spatially and temporally, thus increasing hazards, exposures and \r\nvulnerabilities across populations and regions (medium confidence). \r\nSR1.5 further reinforced AR5 conclusions in terms of projected crop \r\nyield reductions, especially for wheat and rice (high confidence), loss of \r\nlivestock and increased risks for small-scale fisheries and aquaculture \r\n(medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018), conclusions which \r\nare further corroborated by SRCCL (Mbow et al., 2019)."


id: 388f3f2fbc8435e37efaec1d902aecfa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
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vector_id: 6273
content:
"Climate change impacts agriculture through various pathways (5.4 - \r\nCrop-based Systems), with projected yield losses of up to 32% by 2100 \r\n(RCP8.5) due to the combined effects of temperature and precipitation. \r\nLimiting warming could significantly reduce potential impacts (up 12% \r\nyield reduction by 2100 under RCP4.5) (Ren et  al., 2018a). Though \r\noverall changes differ across models, regions and seasons, differences \r\nin impacts between 1.5degC and 2degC can also be identified (Ren et al., \r\n2018a; Ruane et al., 2018; Schleussner et al., 2018). Globally, 11% (+- \r\n5%) of croplands are estimated to be vulnerable to projected climate\u0002driven water scarcity by 2050 (Fitton et al., 2019)."


id: 2c06deed6d342c43cf09069d7fc359ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 4361
content:
"Overall drought-driven yield loss is estimated to increase by 9-12% \r\n(wheat), 5.6-6.3% (maize), 18.1-19.4% (rice) and 15.1-16.1% \r\n(soybean) by 2071-2100, relative to 1961-2016 (RCP8.5) (Leng and \r\nHall, 2019). In addition, temperature-driven increases in water vapour \r\ndeficit could have additional negative effects, further exacerbating \r\ndrought-induced plant mortality and thus impacting yields (Grossiord \r\net  al., 2020) (see also Cross-Chapter Box  1 in Chapter 5 of WGI \r\nreport). Currently, global agricultural models do not fully differentiate \r\ncrop responses to elevated CO2 under temperature and hydrological \r\nextremes (Deryng et al., 2016) and largely underestimate the effects of \r\nclimate extremes (Schewe et al., 2019)."


id: fce7592780cda7cb9ba4a6f1412aa657
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Flood-related risks to agricultural production are projected to increase \r\nover Europe, with a mean increase of expected annual output losses of \r\napproximately EUR11 million (at 1.5degC GWL); EUR12 million ( at 2degC GWL) \r\nand EUR15 million (at 3degC GWL) relative to the 2010 baseline (Koks et al., \r\n2019). In parts of Asia, where flooding impacts on agriculture are \r\nalready significant, projections indicate an increase in damage to area \r\nunder paddy by up to 50% in Nepal, 16% in the Philippines, 55% in \r\nIndonesia, 23% in Cambodia and Vietnam and 13% in Thailand (2075-\r\n2099 compared with 1979-2003; RCP8.5) (Shrestha et al., 2019a)."


id: 45f01f69e07578253019b779e8f3253d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Global crop water consumption of green water resources (soil \r\nmoisture) is projected to increase by about 8.5% by 2099 relative to \r\n1971-2000 as a result of climate drivers (RCP6.0), with additional \r\nsmaller contributions by land use change (Huang et  al., 2019) \r\n(Sections 4.4.1.3, 4.4.8). In India, a substantial increase in green and \r\nblue water consumption is projected for wheat and maize, with a slight \r\nreduction of blue water consumption for paddy fields (Mali et al., 2021). \r\nTemperate drylands, especially higher latitude regions, may become \r\nmore suitable for rain-fed agriculture (Bradford et al., 2017). Locally \r\nand regionally, however, some of those areas with currently larger \r\nareas under rain-fed production, for example, in Europe, may become \r\nless suitable for rain-fed agriculture (Table 1 to 4.5.1) (Bradford et al., \r\n2017; Shahsavari et al., 2019)."


id: 6d31bcd6d21fca60143775eff2d204c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Over 50% of the global lowlands equipped for irrigation will depend \r\nheavily on runoff contributions from the mountain cryosphere by \r\n2041-2050 (SSP2-RCP6.0) and are projected to make unsustainable \r\nuse of blue water resources (Viviroli et al., 2020). Projected changes in \r\nsnowmelt patterns indicate that for all regions dependent on snowmelt \r\nfor irrigation during warm seasons, alternative water sources will have "


id: c64175c7bd0e27e50a50f13fc4593f3c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"rain-fed agriculture increase globally because of increasing variability \r\nin precipitation regimes and changes in water availability (high \r\nconfidence). Water-related impacts on economically valuable crops will \r\nincrease regional economic risks (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nRegions reliant on snowmelt for irrigation purposes will be affected by \r\nsubstantial reductions in water availability (high confidence)."


id: 599dc01ecdebdb39650114099959e10a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"to be found for up to 20% (at 2degC GWL) and up to 40% (at 4degC GWL) \r\nof seasonal irrigation water use, relative to current water use patterns \r\n(1986-2015) (Qin et al., 2020). Regional studies further corroborate \r\nthese global findings (Biemans et al., 2019; Malek et al., 2020). Basins \r\nwhere such alternate sources are not available will face agricultural \r\nwater scarcity."


id: 61d8f5e6b38d53851c4c23579553592c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 12959
content:
"Elevated CO2 concentrations play an important role in determining \r\nfuture yields in general and have the potential to beneficially affect \r\nplant water use efficiency (Deryng et  al., 2016; Ren et  al., 2018a; \r\nNechifor and Winning, 2019). The elevated CO2 effects are projected to \r\nbe most prominent for rain-fed C3 crops (Levis et al., 2018). Combined \r\nresults from field experiments and global crop models show that CO2\r\nfertilisation could reduce consumptive water use by 4-17% (Deryng \r\net al., 2016). To account for uncertainties, global agricultural models \r\nprovide output with and without account for CO2 fertilisation effects, \r\nthough recent progress on reducing model uncertainty indicates that \r\nnon-CO2 model runs may no longer be needed for adequate projections \r\nof yield impacts (Toreti et al., 2019)."


id: 33f3c6e8349714945e50a19c5de5b5e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 concluded with high confidence that climate-induced changes, \r\nincluding changes in water flows, will affect energy production, and the \r\nactual impact will depend on the technological processes and location \r\nof energy production facilities (Arent et  al., 2014). SR1.5 concluded \r\nwith high confidence that climate change is projected to affect the \r\nhydropower production of northern European countries positively. \r\nHowever, Mediterranean countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are \r\nprojected to experience approximately a 10% reduction in hydropower \r\npotential under a 2degC warming level, which could be reduced by half \r\nif global warming could be limited to 1.5degC (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r\n2018). In addition, SROCC concluded with high confidence that an \r\naltered amount and seasonality of water supply from snow and glacier \r\nmelt is projected to affect hydropower production negatively (IPCC, \r\n2019a)."


id: aa73097f82754c942a3c9e7627dcda7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Due to the complex interactions among determinants for livestock \r\nproduction, the future signal of water-related risks to this sector is \r\nunclear. Globally, 10% (+- 5%) of pasture areas are projected to be \r\nvulnerable to climate-induced water scarcity by 2050 (Fitton et  al., \r\n2019). Water use efficiency gains through elevated CO2 concentrations \r\nhave the potential to increase forage quantities, though effects of \r\nnutritional values are ambiguous (Augustine et al., 2018; Derner et al., \r\n2018; Rolla et  al., 2019). In addition, spatial shifts in temperature/\r\nhumidity regimes may shift suitable regions for livestock production, \r\nopening up new suitable areas for some regions or encouraging shifts \r\nin specific breeds better adapted to future climatic regimes (Rolla et al., \r\n2019) (5.5 - Livestock Systems and 5.10 Mixed Systems)."


id: 91647a1552d67bfad61dcc27545d82e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Since AR5, a large number of studies have modelled future changes \r\nin hydropower production due to climate-induced changes in volume \r\nand seasonality of streamflow and changes in sediment load due \r\nto accelerated melting of cryosphere at both global (van Vliet et al., \r\n2016b; Turner et al., 2017) and regional scales (Tarroja et al., 2016; Ali \r\net al., 2018; de Jong et al., 2018; Tobin et al., 2018; Arango-Aramburo \r\net al., 2019; Carvajal et al., 2019; Arias et al., 2020; Meng et al., 2021)."


id: ea45286406d7b62b380968e339f897de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Projections of climate impacts on freshwater aquaculture are limited \r\n(5.9.3.1 - Projected Impacts; Inland freshwater and brackish aquaculture). \r\nIn particular, in tropical regions, reductions in water availability, \r\ndeteriorating water quality, and increasing water temperatures pose \r\nrisks to terrestrial aquaculture, including temperature-related diseases \r\nand endocrine disruption (Kibria et  al., 2017, Section  4.4.7). On the \r\nother hand, freshwater aquaculture in temperate and arctic polar \r\nregions may benefit from temperature increases with an extension of \r\nthe fish-growing season (Kibria et al., 2017)."


id: 4abe96e75add884a48c98815202d0ed5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Global crop models, which provide the basis for most projections \r\nof agricultural risk, continue to have limitations in resolving water \r\navailability. For example they do not fully resolve the effects of elevated \r\nCO2 for changing water use efficiency (Durand et al., 2018), potentially \r\noverestimating drought impacts on maize yield (Fodor et al., 2017) and \r\nmay underestimate limitations to further expansion of irrigation (Elliott \r\net al., 2014; Frieler et al., 2017b; Winter et al., 2017; Jagermeyr and \r\nFrieler, 2018; Kimball et al., 2019; Yokohata et al., 2020a)."


id: d0bf444e0bed089ef77fe8bdbddea08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, agricultural water use is projected to increase globally \r\ndue to cropland expansion and intensification and climate change\u0002induced changes in water requirements (high confidence). Parts of \r\ntemperate drylands may experience increases in suitability for rain\u0002fed production based on mean climate conditions; however, risks to "


id: c6de437c3d717912ea62e5e56b5c2c60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"In hydropower plants located in the Zambezi basin, electricity output \r\nis projected to decline by 10-20% by 2070 compared to baseline \r\n(1948-2008) under a drying climate; only marginal increases are \r\nprojected under a wetting climate (Spalding-Fecher et al., 2017). In the "


id: 4ebf974fcb373193a0d12a612c99bf8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"particularly vulnerable (Zarfl et al., 2019). Therefore, future hydropower \r\ndams will need to be sited carefully (Dorber et al., 2020)."


id: 52193a747c3bb31867c0e91c0287cbfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"There is high confidence that changes in future cooling water \r\navailability are projected to affect thermoelectric production capacity \r\nnegatively at global (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Zhou et al., 2018b) and \r\nregional scales (Bartos and Chester, 2015; Behrens et al., 2017; Ganguli \r\net al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018b; Emodi et al., 2019). Global mean water \r\ntemperature is projected to increase by +1degC for RCP2.6 and +2.7degC for \r\nRCP8.5 (van Vliet et al., 2016b). Correspondingly, global cooling water \r\nsufficiency is projected to decline by -7.9% to -11.4% by 2040-2069 \r\nand -11.3% to -18.6% by 2070-2090 (Zhou et al., 2018b), thereby \r\nimpacting thermoelectric power production."


id: 1251868ab9fd674d2a0bc40557af9c37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 387
content:
"In summary, globally, hydropower and thermoelectric power capacities \r\nare projected to increase and decrease, respectively, due to changes \r\nin river runoff and increases in ambient water temperatures (high \r\nconfidence). In the future, freshwater demand for energy and industrial \r\nsectors is projected to rise significantly at the global level, triggering \r\ncompetition for water across sectors. Although climate change also \r\nposes risks to mining and other water-intensive industries, quantifying \r\nthese risks is difficult due to limited studies."


id: c0f5ddc109a991d78fdbe4cafd7523b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 27933
content:
"Climate-related extreme events impact WaSH services and local water \r\nsecurity. While not WaSH-specific, AR5 showed that more people would \r\nexperience water scarcity and floods (high confidence) and identified \r\nWaSH failure due to climate change as an emergent risk (medium \r\nconfidence) leading to higher diarrhoea risk (Field et  al., 2014b). In \r\naddition, both SR1.5 (IPCC, 2018a) and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019b) projected \r\nthe risk from droughts, heavy precipitation, water scarcity, wildfire \r\ndamage and permafrost degradation to be higher at 2degC warming than \r\n1.5degC (medium confidence), and all these could potentially impact \r\nwater quality and WaSH services."


id: 49c27a393285cd4435adaa02fd69c8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, climate change is expected to compromise WaSH services, \r\ncompounding existing vulnerabilities and increasing water-related \r\nhealth risks (medium evidence, high agreement). Therefore, additional \r\nresearch is required on disease-, country-, and population-specific risks \r\ndue to future climate change impacts (Baylis, 2017; Bhandari et  al., \r\n2020; Harper et al., 2020)."


id: f0217238345f6dd3579fcba473b0cbcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"AR5 reported with medium confidence that climate change would \r\nimpact residential water demand, supply and management (Revi et al., \r\n2014). According to AR5, water utilities are also confronted by changes \r\nto the availability of supplies, water quality and saltwater intrusion \r\ninto aquifers in coastal areas due to higher ambient and water \r\ntemperatures (medium evidence, high agreement), altered streamflow \r\npatterns, drier conditions, increased storm runoff, sea level rise and \r\nmore frequent forest wildfires in catchments (Jimenez Cisneros \r\net al., 2014). SR1.5 found with medium confidence that constraining \r\nwarming to 1.5degC instead of 2degC might mitigate risks for water \r\navailability, but socioeconomic drivers could affect water availability \r\nmore than variations in warming levels, while the risks differ across \r\nregions (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: a277caac885004f1dbba32cd44d034c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"capacity (high confidence). In addition, modified stream flows due to \r\nclimate change (Section 4.4.3) are projected to affect the amount and \r\nvariability of inflows to storage reservoirs that serve urban areas and \r\nmay exacerbate challenges to reservoir capacity, such as sedimentation \r\nand poor water quality (high confidence)."


id: b0eb8a2067c63f754c80e1457cf45e16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"found drought conditions are expected to intensify (compared to the \r\nhistorical period 1951-2000) in southern European cities, particularly \r\nin Portugal and Spain (Guerreiro et  al., 2018; Section CCP4.3.3). \r\nChanges in river flooding are projected to affect cities in northwestern \r\nEuropean cities and the UK between 2051 and 2100 (Guerreiro et al., \r\n2018) (Sections 6.2.3.2, CCP2.2.1, CCP2.2.3)."


id: 5fe823aa263479716f600fd1f838863d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"AR5 concluded that climate change is projected to be an important \r\nstressor on freshwater ecosystems in the second half of the 21st \r\ncentury, especially under high-warming scenarios of RCP6.0 and \r\nRCP8.5 (high confidence), even though direct human impacts will \r\ncontinue to be the dominant threat (Settele et al., 2014). Rising water \r\ntemperatures are also projected to cause shifts in freshwater species \r\ndistribution and worsen water quality problems (high confidence), \r\nespecially in those systems that already experience high anthropogenic \r\nloading of nutrients (Settele et al., 2014)."


id: 8ba3e9b189337c329f2da8a0f0ad0bf0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Changes in precipitation and temperatures are projected to affect \r\nfreshwater ecosystems and their species through, for example, direct \r\nphysiological responses from higher temperatures or drier conditions \r\nor a loss of habitat for feeding or breeding (Settele et al., 2014; Knouft \r\nand Ficklin, 2017; Bloschl et al., 2019b). In addition, increased water \r\ntemperatures could lead to shifts in the structure and composition of \r\nspecies assemblages following changes in metabolic rates, body size, \r\ntiming of migration, recruitment, range size and destabilisation of food \r\nwebs. A review of the impact of climate change on biodiversity and \r\nfunctioning of freshwater ecosystems found that under all scenarios, \r\nexcept the one with the lowest GHG emission scenario, freshwater \r\nbiodiversity is expected to decrease proportionally to the degree of \r\nwarming and precipitation alteration (Settele et  al., 2014) (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 467b383edae465383049317fe4b85c1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"As climate change poses a substantial challenge to urban water \r\nmanagement, further refinement of urban climate models, downscaling \r\nand correction methods (e.g., Goore Bi et  al., 2017; Jaramillo and \r\nNazemi, 2018) is needed. Additionally, given that 90% of urban growth \r\nwill occur in less developed regions, where urbanisation is largely \r\nunplanned (UN-Habitat, 2019), further research is needed to quantify \r\nthe water-related risks of climate change and urbanisation on informal \r\nsettlements (Grasham et al., 2019; Satterthwaite et al., 2020, 4.5.3)."


id: d099d0d3542f64d928d6006c70e6fda4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"The impact of climate change on shared water resources might \r\nincrease tensions among states, particularly in the absence of strong \r\ninstitutional capacity (Petersen-Perlman et  al., 2017; Dinar et  al., \r\n2019). On the other hand, although the mere existence of formal \r\nagreements does not necessarily reduce the risks of conflicts, robust \r\ntreaties and institutions can promote cooperative events, even under \r\nhydrological stress (Link et  al., 2016). Yet, since both conflictive \r\nand cooperative events are possible under conditions of climatic \r\nvariability, whether conflict arises or increases depends on several \r\ncontextual socioeconomic and political factors, including the adaptive \r\ncapacity of the riparian states (Koubi, 2019), the existence of power \r\nasymmetries (Dinar et  al., 2019) and pre-existing social tensions \r\n(medium confidence)."


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content:
"At the intra-state level, analysis suggests that additional climate \r\nchange will increase the probability of conflict risks, with 13% \r\nincrease probability at the 2degC GWL and 26% probability at the 4degC \r\nGWL scenario (Mach et al., 2019). However, to date, other factors are \r\nconsidered more influential drivers of conflict, including lack of natural \r\nresource use regulations (Linke et al., 2018b), societal exclusion (von \r\nUexkull et  al., 2016; van Weezel, 2019), poor infrastructures and a \r\nhistory of violent conflict (Detges, 2016) (high confidence). In addition, \r\nmedium-high evidence exists that climate change imposes additional \r\npressures on regions that are already fragile and conflict-prone \r\n(Matthew, 2014; Earle et al., 2015) (medium agreement)."


id: 9641234dbb4ea146e032788aed4dbb29
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content:
"These impacts are expected to be most noticeable where significant \r\nair temperature increases are projected, leading to local or regional \r\npopulation extinctions for cold-water species because of range \r\nshrinking, especially under the RCP4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios (Comte \r\nand Olden, 2017). The consequences for freshwater species are projected \r\nto be severe with local extinctions as the freshwater ecosystems dry. \r\nIn the Americas, under all scenarios that have been examined, the risk \r\nof extinction of freshwater species is projected to increase above that \r\nalready occurring levels due to biodiversity loss caused by pollution, \r\nhabitat modification, over-exploitation and invasive species (IPBES, \r\n2019). Freshwater ecosystems are also at risk of abrupt and irreversible \r\nchange, especially those in the higher latitudes and altitudes with \r\nsignificant changes in species distributions, including those induced \r\nby melting permafrost systems (Moomaw et al., 2018; IPBES, 2019)."


id: 6a18e2f017a36389d498b120e7cd6c01
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Recent research indicates that climatic change can multiply tensions \r\nin regions dependent on agriculture when coupled with other \r\nsocioeconomic and political factors (Koubi, 2019), including a low level \r\nof human development (Ide et al., 2020) and deterioration of individual \r\nliving conditions (Vestby, 2019). On the other side, intergroup \r\ncohesion (De Juan and Hanze, 2020) and policies that improve \r\nsocietal development and good governance reduce the risk of conflict \r\nassociated with the challenges to adaptation to climate change (Hegre \r\net al., 2016; Witmer et al., 2017) (medium confidence) at both the intra\u0002state and inter-state level."


id: 13a74f8353b0595a4f9a5f476cc537ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"While changes in the species distribution across freshwater ecosystems \r\nare projected, the extent of change and the ability of individual species \r\nor populations to adapt are not widely known. Species that cannot move \r\nto more amenable habitats may become extinct, whereas those who \r\nmigrate may relocate. An unknown outcome could be establishing novel \r\necosystems with new assemblages of species, including invasive alien \r\nspecies, in response to changes in the environment with the prospect of \r\nirreversible changes in freshwater ecosystems (Moomaw et al., 2018)."


id: 6bf90ec85aec054dad299d79da7dee36
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 14609
content:
"Increased risk of conflict between different sectors (agriculture, \r\nindustry, domestic) and needs (urban, rural) is projected to arise \r\nin several river basins due to climate change and socioeconomic \r\ndevelopments, including urbanisation (Florke et  al., 2018). Future \r\nclimatic conditions and population growth are expected to exert \r\nadditional pressures on managing already stressed basins such as the \r\nNile, the Indus, Colorado, the Feni, the Irrawaddy, the Orange and the \r\nOkavango (Farinosi et al., 2018). In addition, recent scenario analysis \r\nin global transboundary basins supports the finding that there is \r\nmore potential for conflict in areas already under water stress, such \r\nas central Asia and the northern parts of Africa (Munia et al., 2020) \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: 7a3b12162ee81b1a03a381e93892910
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, changes in precipitation and temperatures are projected \r\nto affect all types of freshwater ecosystems and their species. Under \r\nall scenarios, except the one with the lowest GHG emission scenario, \r\nfreshwater biodiversity is expected to decrease proportionally to the \r\ndegree of warming and precipitation change (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement)."


id: 649d7ecc757453daca6243f71f96d8ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 13404
content:
"In summary, the impact of climate change on water resources might \r\nincrease tensions, particularly in the absence of strong institutional \r\ncapacity. However, whether conflict arises or increases depends on \r\nseveral contextual socioeconomic and political factors. Evidence \r\nexists that climate change imposes additional pressures on regions \r\nalready under water stress or fragile and conflict-prone (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 6b124c0e37f95f6aecc39af1d36fc680
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 concluded with medium confidence that climate change can \r\nindirectly increase the risks of violent conflicts, though the link to \r\nhydrological changes were not spelled out (Jimenez Cisneros et  al., \r\n2014). Furthermore, according to IPCC SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r\n2018), if the world warms by 2degC-4degC by 2050, rates of human conflict \r\ncould increase, but again, the role of hydrological change in this was \r\nnot explicit (medium confidence)."


id: 7ae67074efd5036a84d2eacef5dbd4dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"species and lead to variations or depletion of culturally important places \r\nand subsistence practices. For example, in New Zealand, the increasing \r\nrisk of flood events may impact culturally important fish species for \r\nMaori (Carter, 2019), while habitat changes may shift the distribution \r\nof culturally significant plants (Bond et al., 2019). In Australia, Yuibera \r\nand Koinmerburra Traditional Owners fear the saltwater inundation of \r\nculturally significant sites and waterholes (Lyons et  al., 2019), while \r\nthe flooding of culturally significant wetlands will negatively affect the \r\nLumbee Tribe (USA) (Emanuel, 2018). Moreover, changes in the carrying \r\ncapacity of ice, snow quality and formation will probably increase the \r\nphysical risks to Saami practising reindeer herding (Jaakkola et al., 2018)."


id: 7f2c578c079b5ba6775f17970b00f845
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"SR1.5 found with medium confidence that migration is expected to \r\nincrease with further warming, but that there are major knowledge \r\ngaps preventing more detailed assessments (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., \r\n2018). However, as in AR5, there was no specific focus on hydrological \r\nchanges-induced migration."


id: 359f6df034a079b0da79db6522e05d67
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Further research is necessary to assess the extent and nature of \r\nclimate-driven risks to cultural water uses in the context of broader \r\nsocioeconomic, cultural and political challenges facing diverse \r\nIndigenous Peoples and local and traditional communities. In addition, \r\ngiven the significance of IKLK to adaptive capacity and community-led \r\nadaptation, the potential risks of climate-related hydrological changes \r\nto diverse cultural water uses warrant closer study (Sections  4.6.9, \r\n4.8.4, Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18)."


id: cd3e26d04232fe9ecbcb1c3f65b3c0a
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content:
"In sum, there is high confidence that climate-driven hydrological \r\nchanges to cultural water uses and culturally significant ecosystems \r\nand species are projected to pose risks to the physical well-being of \r\nIndigenous Peoples, local communities and traditional peoples."


id: fb7cacf64dc5f3f99a99b7e27f76b0aa
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vector_id: 37067
content:
"More detailed local and regional models are needed, incorporating \r\nmigrant destinations (Abel et al., 2019) and immobility (Zickgraf, 2018)."


id: f425de512854f27a1d30f08cec7ebe4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 35923
content:
"In summary, research that projects future migration changes due to \r\nclimate-induced hydrological changes is limited and shows significant \r\nuncertainties about the number of migrants and their destinations \r\n(limited evidence; medium agreement)."


id: 8f0902f78fff8cec5726c23e1130e618
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 found that climate change will threaten cultural practices \r\nand values, although the risks vary across societies and over time \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement). Furthermore, AR5 concluded \r\nthat significant changes in the natural resource base on which many \r\ncultures depend would directly affect the cultural core, worldviews, \r\ncosmologies and symbols of indigenous cultures (Adger and Pulhin, \r\n2014). SR1.5 concluded with high confidence that limiting global \r\nwarming to 1.5degC, rather than 2degC, will strongly benefit terrestrial and \r\nwetland ecosystems and their services, including the cultural services \r\nprovided by these ecosystems (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). SROCC \r\nfound with high confidence that cultural assets are projected to be \r\nnegatively affected by future cryospheric and associated hydrological \r\nchanges (Hock et al., 2019b)."


id: aa13fd5a6545bef0161400e447856eb9
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content:
"The preceding sections have outlined the various pathways along \r\nwhich climate affects water resources and water-using sectors. In \r\nsynthesis, fundamental changes in observed climate are already visible \r\nin water-related outcomes (high confidence), including ~500 million \r\npeople experiencing historically unfamiliar precipitation regimes \r\n(Section 4.2.1.1); cryospheric changes impacting various societal and \r\necosystem components (Section  4.2.2); increasing vulnerability to \r\nflood impacts, driven by both by climate and socioeconomic factors "


id: d88b2c7f978bb0918e374802be028b06
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content:
"There is high confidence that the cultural water uses of Indigenous \r\nPeoples, local communities and traditional peoples are at risk of \r\nclimate change-related hydrological change (Table 4.7). Climate-driven \r\nvariations in streamflow, saltwater intrusion and projected increases \r\nin water temperature will exacerbate declines of culturally important "


id: bfa7750a5c633728e7e5e89b11600825
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"increase in population at risk of river flooding at 2degC and 4degC, respectively \r\n(Alfieri et al., 2017). Also projected are increasing risks of fatalities and \r\nsocioeconomic impacts (Section  4.4.4). Similarly, a near doubling of \r\ndrought duration (Naumann et al., 2018) and an increasing share of the \r\npopulation affected by various types, durations and severity levels of \r\ndrought are projected (high confidence) (Section 4.4.5). Increasing return \r\nperiods of high-end hydrological extremes pose significant challenges \r\nto adaptation, requiring integrated approaches to risk management, \r\nwhich take the various economic and non-economic, as well as direct \r\nand indirect losses and damages into account (Jongman, 2018)."


id: 11bdc77ce090ad68c200aa5101ce0962
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Further increases in risks are projected to manifest at different \r\nlevels of warming. Climate change is impacting all components of \r\nthe hydrological cycle, but the water use sectors are also facing the \r\nconsequences of climate change, given the central role of water for all \r\naspects of human and environmental systems (Section 4.1, Box 4.1). \r\nTherefore, risks to water security are also identified as a representative \r\nkey risk (RKR) (WGII, Chapter 16, Section 16.5.2.3.7)."


id: 6c802005c04f8b54e585a2800b64698c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Increasing sectoral risks are reported across regions and sectors with \r\nrising temperatures and associated hydrometeorological changes \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box  INTEREG in Chapter 16). Risks to agricultural \r\nyields due to combined effects of water and temperature changes, for \r\nexample, could be three times higher at 3degC compared to 2degC (Ren \r\net  al., 2018b), with additional risks as a consequence of increasing \r\nclimate extremes (Leng and Hall, 2019). In addition, climate-driven \r\nwater scarcity and increasing crop water demands, including for \r\nirrigation, pose additional challenges for agricultural production "


id: eef30e84ccb162fd835b19f927a55747
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"Approximately 4  billion people globally face physical water scarcity \r\nfor at least one month yr-1 which is driven by both climatic and non\u0002climatic factors (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Increases in physical \r\nwater scarcity are projected, with estimates between 800 million and \r\n3 billion for 2degC global warming and up to approximately 4 billion for \r\n4degC global warming (Gosling and Arnell, 2016). Projected increases in \r\nhydrological extremes pose increasing risks to societal systems globally \r\n(high confidence), with a potential doubling of flood risk between 1.5degC \r\nand 3degC of warming (Dottori et al., 2018) and an estimated 120-400% "


id: 4b510902a25b6012448ebd1debfd1b1d
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"(a) Regional changes and impacts of selected variables. Confidence levels higher than medium are shown."


id: 1a6d859a4107a355767236779f05ecb4
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"Risks to freshwater ecosystems increase with progressing climate \r\nchange, with freshwater biodiversity decreasing proportionally with \r\nincreasing warming if 1.5degC is exceeded (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). Risks include range shift, a decline in species population, \r\nextirpation and extinction (Section 4.5.5)."


id: b07dfac2a24fa8d3227e3f8babdefc1a
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"in many regions (high confidence). Regional water-related risks to \r\nagricultural production are diverse and vary strongly across regions \r\nand crops (Section 4.5.1). As there are limitations to how well global \r\nagricultural models can represent available water resources (Elliott \r\net al., 2014; Jagermeyr et al., 2017), water limitations to agricultural \r\nproduction may well be underestimated. For example, the potential for \r\nirrigation, commonly assumed to play an important role in ensuring \r\nfood security, could be more limited than models assume (Box 4.3)."


id: c3422655148ce792767f89c27dd15bc8
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content:
"The potential for climate change to influence conflict is highly contextual \r\nand depends on various socioeconomic and political factors. However, \r\nwater-specific conflicts between sectors and users may be exacerbated \r\nfor some regions of the world (high confidence) (Section 4.5.7)."


id: a6d77909561872c4727ee8f34777d2c0
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content:
"With higher levels of warming, risks to water-dependent energy production \r\nincrease substantially across regions (van Vliet et al., 2017). While there \r\nare increasing potentials of ~2-6% for hydropower production by 2080 \r\n(medium confidence), risks to thermoelectric power production increase \r\nfor most regions (high confidence), for example, with potentially near \r\ndoubling of the risk to European electricity production from 1.5degC to 3degC \r\n(Tobin et al., 2018). Shifting to a higher share of renewable sources less \r\ndependent on water resources for energy production could substantially \r\nreduce the vulnerability of this sector (Section 4.5.2)."


id: 69dc6ad18641e69599eb00bbd900caa2
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content:
"Human migration takes many forms and can be considered a consequence \r\nand impact of climate change and an adaptation response (Section 4.5.8). \r\nProjections indicate a potentially substantial increase in internal and \r\ninternational displacement due to water-related climate risks (Missirian \r\nand Schlenker, 2017; Rigaud et  al., 2018). In the context of water\u0002related adaptation, short-term migration as an income diversification \r\napproach is commonly documented. However, permanent relocation \r\nand fundamental changes to livelihoods are more transformational and \r\nyet can be associated with tangible and intangible losses (Mechler et al., \r\n2019). In the context of climate-induced hydrological change, increased \r\nvulnerability among migrants and the risk of trapped populations poses \r\nsignificant additional risks. However, quantifications that disentangle \r\ndifferent climate drivers and show specific risks emanating from \r\nhydrological change are unavailable (Rigaud et al., 2018)."


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"Hydrological change, especially increasing extreme events, pose risks \r\nto the cultural uses of water of Indigenous Peoples, local communities \r\nand traditional peoples (high confidence), with implications for the \r\nphysical well-being of these groups (high confidence). Increasing risks \r\nare documented across groups and regions; however, partly due to \r\nthe unquantifiable nature of these risks, the lack of research funding \r\nfor the social dimensions of climate change, particularly in the Global \r\nSouth, and the systemic underrepresentation of marginalised groups in \r\nscientific research, quantitative projections are limited (Section 4.5.8)."


id: a7efa2004f7944842f4f8a92081f4e92
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content:
"Increasing water demand in conjunctions with changing precipitation \r\npatterns will pose risks to urban water security by mid-century, \r\nwith water demand in nearly a third of the world's largest cities \r\npotentially exceeding surface water availability by 2050 (RCP6.0) \r\n(Florke et  al., 2018) and the global volume of domestic water \r\nwithdrawal projected to increase by 50-250% (Wada et al., 2016) \r\n(Section  4.5.4). Globally, climate change will exacerbate existing \r\nchallenges for urban water services, driven by further population \r\ngrowth, the rapid pace of urbanisation and inadequate investment, \r\nparticularly in less developed economies with limited governance \r\ncapacity (high confidence)."


id: a9afcc3cb96668e263314a7bc83df64d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Adaptation is already playing an integral part in reducing climate \r\nimpacts and preparing for increasing climate risk, and it will grow in \r\nimportance evermore with increasing risks at higher levels of warming. \r\nThe remaining subsections describe these adaptation responses."


id: b6f517b7ec3274cd0c8d7d35ae8f5494
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"AR5 reported a range of available hard and soft adaptation options \r\nfor water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector. However, the \r\nevidence on the effectiveness of these adaptation responses, now and "


id: 39a149f92859c6fb746981c0ac5e50e5
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"Box 4.2 | Observed Risks, Projected Impacts and Adaptation Responses to Water Security in Small \r\nIsland States"


id: 694c0b1e62b43ab71f0df30d07435744
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"AR5 and SR1.5 recognised the exceptional vulnerability of islands, especially concerning water security and potential limits to adaptation \r\nthat may be reached due to freshwater resources (Klein et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Roy et al., 2018)."


id: 28aae11037172351f41833c11fece881
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"In sum, small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages (high confidence). For atoll islands, freshwater \r\navailability may be severely limited as early as 2030 (low confidence). The effects of temperature increase, changing rainfall patterns, \r\nsea level rise and population pressure combined with limited options available for water-related adaptation leave small islands partially \r\nwater-insecure currently, with increasing risks in the near-term and at warming above 1.5degC (high confidence)."


id: c58ba0b619bd9799931d9e41b2f9067
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"2018; Paymard et al., 2018). Assessments of the future effectiveness \r\nof crop rotation systems for adaptation show a continued reduction in \r\nrequired irrigation water use, though studies of effectiveness beyond \r\n2degC global mean temperature increase are not available (Kothari et al., \r\n2019; Yang et al., 2019b) (Figure 4.28 and Figure 4.29)."


id: 704e742cab5d57ab75f798b635ffea56
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"in the future, was not assessed (Noble et al., 2014; Porter et al., 2014). \r\nAssessing the feasibility of different irrigation measures as adaptation, \r\nSR1.5 (de Coninck et al., 2018) found mixed evidence, depending on \r\nthe applied methodology."


id: acdc61d62d0a6438f1278a35f6c836c6
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"Changes in cropping patterns, the timing of sowing and harvesting, crop \r\ndiversification towards cash crops and the adoption of improved crop \r\ncultivars that can better withstand hazards like floods and drought are \r\namong the most used adaptation responses by farmers. This is among \r\nthe top two measures in Asia and Africa (Figure 4.27). Extra income \r\nallows households to re-invest in improved agricultural techniques \r\nand improved cultivars (Taboada et  al., 2017; Khanal et  al., 2018b). \r\nBeneficial outcomes are documented in terms of increases in incomes \r\nand yields and water-related outcomes (medium confidence, from \r\nrobust evidence, but medium agreement), but benefits to vulnerable \r\ncommunities are not always apparent on the whole (Figure FAQ4.4.1). \r\nChanges in cropping patterns and systems are also among those \r\nadaptation options assessed for their potential to reduce future climate \r\nimpacts, though effectiveness is shown to be limited (Brouziyne et al., "


id: eeb0bd0746607b4656d6c5a43a0654b5
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content:
"IKLK are crucial determinants of adaptation in agriculture for many \r\ncommunities globally. Indigenous Peoples have intimate knowledge \r\nabout their surrounding environment and are attentive observers of \r\nclimate changes. As a result, they are often best placed to enact successful \r\nadaptation measures, including shifting to different crops, changing \r\ncropping times or returning to traditional varieties (Mugambiwa, 2018; \r\nKamara et al., 2019; Nelson et al., 2019) (Section 4.8.4)."


id: 2d7d9cdb24a41f26f9fabc97cfbcc4e3
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"Migration and livelihood diversification is often an adaptation response \r\nto water-related hazards and involves securing income sources away \r\nfrom agriculture, including off-farm employment and temporary or \r\npermanent migration, and these are particularly important in Asia \r\nand Africa (Figure 4.27). Income and remittances are sometimes re\u0002invested, for instance, for crop diversification (Rodriguez-Solorzano, "


id: 68e3407571a5b22ad820925d680f52a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"2014; Musah-Surugu et  al., 2018; Mashizha, 2019). While there is \r\nextensive documentation on the benefits of migration, the quality of \r\nstudies is such that links between migration and subsequent benefits \r\nare not clear, making our conclusion of benefits from this measure as \r\nhaving medium confidence. On the other hand, there is more rigorous \r\nevidence on the maladaptive nature of migration as an adaptation \r\nmeasure (Figure  FAQ4.4.1). However, adverse climatic conditions, \r\nespecially droughts, have been found to reduce international migration, \r\nas resources are unavailable to consider this option (Nawrotzki and \r\nBakhtsiyarava, 2017), resulting in limits to adaptation (Ayeb-Karlsson \r\net al., 2016; Brottem and Brooks, 2018; Ferdous et al., 2019). In addition, \r\nit is difficult to model this option in future climate adaptation models."


id: fc08d7ff3f79b3b727ea266480892297
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"by van Vliet et al. (2016b) demonstrated that increasing the efficiency of \r\nhydropower plants by up to 10% could offset the impacts of decreased \r\nwater availability in most regions by mid-century, under both RCP2.6 \r\nand RCP8.5 scenarios (medium confidence). Changing hydropower \r\noperation protocol and plant design can be effective adaptation \r\nmeasures, yet may be insufficient to mitigate all future risks related to \r\nincreased floods and sediment loads (Lee et al., 2016)."


id: 4fb00552278c0e3345e3e140c659300b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"van Vliet et al. (2016b) projected that even a 20% increase in efficiency \r\nof thermoelectric power plants might not be enough to offset the \r\nrisks of water stress by mid-century (medium confidence). Therefore, \r\nthermoelectric power plants will need additional adaptation measures \r\nsuch as changes in cooling water sources and alternative cooling \r\ntechnologies (van Vliet et al., 2016c). In China, many CFPPs in water\u0002scarce North China have adopted air cooling technologies (Zhang \r\net al., 2016a). In Europe, wet/dry cooling towers (Byers et al., 2016) and \r\nseawater cooling (Behrens et al., 2017) have been the preferred options. \r\nOverall, freshwater withdrawals for adapted cooling systems under all \r\nscenarios are projected to decline by -3% to -63% by 2100 compared \r\nto the base year of 2000 (Fricko et al., 2016) (medium confidence)."


id: 9e96719aebdc14e11600a8c433a76e1d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Water-stressed regions already rely on importing agricultural resources, \r\nthus importing water embedded in these commodities (D'Odorico \r\net al., 2014). Virtual water trade will continue to play a role in reducing \r\nwater-related food insecurity (Cross-Chapter Box INTERREG in Chapter \r\n16) (Pastor et al., 2014; Graham et al., 2020b)."


id: e7083e32419f602c286edae75e36a588
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"While an increasing body of literature documents water-related \r\nadaptation in the agricultural sector, both in reducing current climate \r\nimpacts and addressing future climate risk, knowledge gaps remain \r\nabout assessing the effectiveness of such measures to reduce impacts \r\nand risks. Additional considerations on co-benefits of trade-offs for \r\noverall sustainable development are not always sufficiently considered \r\nin the available literature."


id: 51e61f162f6a0cdc5ceb1eecf520d158
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Indigenous Peoples, mountain communities and marginalised minorities \r\noften bear the brunt of environmental and social disruptions due to \r\nhydropower. As a consequence, hydropower operators face resistance \r\nprior to and during construction. Benefit-sharing mechanisms help \r\nredistribute some of the gains from hydropower generation to the \r\ncommunities in the immediate vicinity of the project. For instance, \r\nsharing of hydropower revenues and profits to fund local infrastructure \r\nand pay dividends to local people has been practiced in Nepal and in \r\nsome countries of the Mekong basin to enhance the social acceptability \r\nof hydropower projects (Balasubramanya et al., 2014; Shrestha et al., \r\n2016) (low confidence)."


id: ba64f3b4e8bad299572b3d1ffd50dc6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In sum, water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector is widely \r\ndocumented, with irrigation, agricultural water management, crop \r\ndiversification and improved agronomic practices among the most \r\ncommon adaptation measures adopted (high confidence). However, \r\nthe projected future effectiveness of available water-related adaptation \r\nfor agriculture decreases with increasing warming (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)."


id: 4dc236283a67a371bf77ad0df3db7b45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Most water-intensive industries are increasingly facing water stress, \r\nmaking the reuse of water an attractive adaptation strategy (see \r\nBox  4.5). For example, Singapore, where the share of industrial \r\nwater use is projected to grow from 55% in 2016 to 70% in 2060, is \r\nincreasing its NEWater (highly treated wastewater) supply share from \r\n30% to 55% to meet the growing demand of industrial and cooling "


id: 91662e669323ea8555e793515be94ccf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"While AR5 (Arent et al., 2014) had looked at demand and supply changes \r\nin the energy sector due to climate change, none of the AR5 chapters \r\nhad assessed adaptations in the energy sector per se. A modelling study "


id: e6bd5872041cb31fbfae806d77cf948e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"The use of water-saving technologies like laser levelling, micro-irrigation, efficient pumps and water distribution systems (Kumar et al., \r\n2016); increasing irrigation efficiency (Wang et al., 2019a) through improved agronomic practices (Kakumanu et al., 2018) and economic \r\ninstruments like water trading in developed countries like Australia (Kirby et al., 2014) are known to reduce water application rates and \r\nincrease yields, and 'save' water at the plot level, but may exacerbate basin-scale water scarcity (van der Kooij et al., 2013; Zhou et al., 2021)."


id: 4f55ad30436e675b30587fcd99111587
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Irrigation is also associated with adverse environmental and socioeconomic outcomes, including groundwater over-abstraction, aquifer \r\nsalinisation (Foster et al., 2018; Pulido-Bosch et al., 2018; Quan et al., 2019; Blakeslee et al., 2020) and land degradation (Singh et al., \r\n2018). Further, while irrigation expansion is one of the most commonly proposed adaptation responses, there are limitations to further \r\nincreases in water use, as many regions are already facing water limitations under current climatic conditions (high confidence) (Rockstrom \r\net al., 2014; Steffen et al., 2015; Kummu et al., 2016)."


id: 4778d6bfe97700f8a32faa5e39917370
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Projections of the future effectiveness of irrigation indicate a varying degree of effectiveness depending on the region and specific type \r\nand combination of approaches used. At the same time, overall residual impacts increase at higher levels of warming (Section 4.7.1.2). \r\nUncertainties in regional climate projections and limitations in the ability of agricultural models to fully represent water resources are \r\nimportant limitations in our understanding of the potential of further irrigation expansion (Section 4.5.1) (Greve et al., 2018)."


id: 19ae5855eb094e4285020e07bc1a9358
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"activities (PUB, 2016). In addition, the mining industry has also adopted \r\nwater adaptations measures, such as water recycling and reuse; using \r\nbrackish or saline sources; and working with regional water utilities \r\nto reduce water extraction and improve water use efficiency (Northey \r\net al., 2017; Odell et al., 2018)."


id: 37446c909b393e9fc01e2d4e05ca1c52
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, energy and industrial sector companies have undertaken \r\nseveral adaptation measures to reduce water stress, with varying \r\neffectiveness levels. However, residual risks will remain, especially at \r\nhigher levels of warming (medium confidence)."


id: ebdfd80fb75ad00b44fab7deb0c8784f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 pointed to adaptive water management techniques (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Field et  al., 2014b), while SR1.5 \r\ndocumented the need for reducing vulnerabilities and promoting \r\nsustainable development and disaster risk reduction synergies (high \r\nconfidence) (IPCC, 2018a). WaSH has also been identified as a low\u0002regrets adaptation measure (Cutter et al., 2012)."


id: 42dfeafe92357415b411fdce93c61eb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"During periods of water insecurity, people often implement \r\nmaladaptive strategies (Magnan et al., 2016), that is, strategies that \r\ncan increase the risk of adverse health impacts, increase exposure \r\nto violence or cause malnutrition (Kher et al., 2015; Pommells et al., \r\n2018; Collins et al., 2019a; Schuster et al., 2020) (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Examples include walking further, using less safe \r\nwater sources, prioritising drinking and cooking over personal/\r\nhousehold hygiene, or reducing food/water intake. Conversely, some \r\nrebalancing of gender roles can occur when women and girls cannot \r\nsource sufficient water, with men building additional water supply \r\nor storage infrastructure or fetching water (Singh and Singh, 2015; \r\nMagesa and Pauline, 2016; Shrestha et al., 2019b). Some adaptation \r\nstrategies create unintended health threats such as increased odds "


id: 4a15958b17fa7a750a9f1e9639694a3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, ensuring access to climate-resilient WaSH infrastructure \r\nand practices represents a key adaptation strategy that can protect \r\nbeneficiaries against water-related diseases induced by climate change \r\n(high confidence). Better management of water resources, supply \r\naugmentation and demand management are important adaptation \r\nstrategies (high confidence). Reliable, safe drinking water reduces \r\nadverse physical and psychological impacts of climate-related water \r\nstress and extreme events (robust evidence, medium agreement). \r\nWaSH infrastructure expansion and replacement provide opportunities \r\nto redesign and increase resilience in rural and urban contexts (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 69ba009cd477417166ad0a1b4477ac0
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 reported that although case studies of the potential effectiveness \r\nof adaptation measures in cities are growing, not all considered how \r\nadaptation would be implemented in practice (Jimenez Cisneros et al., \r\n2014). Furthermore, AR5 concluded that more attention had been \r\ngiven to adaptations that help ensure sufficient water supplies than "


id: 7b8e8d90ec21d8e973ae164c0e90518b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"While COVID-19 is an airborne disease (see Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7), public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic \r\nand the associated socioeconomic and environmental impacts of these measures intersect with WaSH (Armitage and Nellums, 2020a). \r\nNotably, COVID-19 and climate change act as compound risks in the context of water-induced disasters, exacerbating existing threats to \r\nsustainable development (Neal, 2020; Pelling et al. 2021)."


id: a4a3e7e2c5123dafb5db6938e033afa7
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"The principal WaSH response to COVID-19 relates to hand hygiene, an infection control intervention that requires access to sufficient, \r\nclean and affordable water beyond cooking, hydration and general sanitation needs, as outlined in SDG6 (Armitage and Nellums, 2020a). \r\nHowever, despite significant progress, more than 800 million people in central and southern Asia, and 760 million in sub-Saharan Africa, \r\nlack basic hand-washing facilities in the home (UNICEF, 2020). Notably, one in four healthcare facilities in select low- and middle-income \r\ncountries lacks basic water access, and one in six lacks hand-washing facilities (WHO, 2019) (Section 4.3.3). Moreover, household water \r\ninsecurity also impacts marginalised and minority groups in the Global North (Deitz and Meehan, 2019; Rodriguez-Lonebear et al., 2020; \r\nStoler et al., 2021)."


id: 5bb8866c0798783e538daf92499f0155
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Public health responses to COVID-19 geared towards infection control and caring for the sick can trigger increased water demand where \r\npopulation numbers and density are high (Mukherjee et al., 2020; Sivakumar, 2021). As COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of \r\nWaSH (Section 4.3.3), this pandemic could also result in long-term positive outcomes in community resilience, improved infection control \r\nand health protection while addressing longer-term environmental challenges of climate change (Phillips et al., 2020)."


id: ce478b12e6db5142bd666eac7161a5a
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"to increasing the capacity of sewage and drainage systems to adapt to \r\nheavier rainfall or sea level rise (Revi et al., 2014).\r\n4.6.6 Adaptation for Communities Dependent on \r\nFreshwater Ecosystems"


id: 66065caa5dbef5a19a2f838cb88e2708
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"Since AR5 knowledge on urban adaptation has advanced, even though \r\nthere is still limited documentation of water adaptation in urban contexts \r\nas compared to other adaptation responses (Figure 4.23.) The majority \r\nof case studies on urban adaptation are also from developed countries, \r\nmost commonly in Europe and Australasia (Figure 4.24). Water-related \r\nurban and peri-urban climate change adaptation can involve 'hard' \r\nengineering structures (grey), managed or restored biophysical systems \r\n(green and blue) or hybrid approaches that combine these strategies \r\n(Ngoran and Xue, 2015; Palmer et  al., 2015) (Figure  4.21, also see \r\nFigure 4.22 for types of urban adaptation options)."


id: 5dce766100cf6111c316abfc3efe585d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"AR5 concluded that some adaptation responses in the urban and \r\nagricultural sectors could negatively impact freshwater ecosystems \r\n(medium confidence) (Settele et al., 2014)."


id: dde859ccd970fb8c25107936d6e8a1de
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"Adaptation measures to cope with changes in ecosystems, including \r\nfreshwater ecosystems, such as ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) \r\ninterventions have gained wide recognition at the global policy level \r\n(Reid, 2016; Barkdull and Harris, 2019; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019b).\r\nThese have been implemented in many locations around the world, \r\nyet, challenges remain, including improving the evidence base of their \r\neffectiveness, scaling up of these interventions, mainstreaming across \r\nsectors and receiving more adaptation finance (medium confidence)."


id: 9de03570a02ffc8ecfa9c4465ced9ad8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"In most regions, hybrid adaptation approaches are underway. For \r\nexample, sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) are a common \r\nadaptation measure that can reduce flooding and improve stormwater \r\nquality while reducing the urban heat island effect (e.g., Chan et al., \r\n2019; Loiola et  al., 2019; Song et  al., 2019; Huang et  al., 2020; Lin \r\net al., 2020) (Box 4.6; 12.5.5.3.2; 12.7.1). Municipal, catchment and \r\nlocal community plans to minimise water-related climate risks are \r\nanother form of adaptation (Stults and Larsen, 2018). Plans involve \r\nsupply augmentation (Chu, 2017; Bekele et  al., 2018), as well as \r\nfloodplain management, land use planning, stakeholder coordination \r\nand water demand management (Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Flyen \r\net al., 2018; Robb et al., 2019; Tosun and Leopold, 2019), with some \r\nUS cities including strategies to address social inequalities that climate \r\nchange may exacerbate (Chu and Cannon, 2021)."


id: 948d04c3e22e614b5419420c67ad76f4
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"Such adaptation measures are concentrated in more developed countries \r\n(Olazabal et al., 2019). For example, about 80% of European cities with \r\nmore than 500,000 inhabitants have either mitigation and/or adaptation \r\nplans (Reckien et al., 2018). In contrast, a survey of cities with more than \r\none million inhabitants found 92% of Asian cities, 89% of African cities \r\nand 87% of Latin American cities did not report adaptation initiatives \r\n(Araos et al., 2016) (12.5.8.1). Autonomous adaptation measures (e.g., \r\nelevating housing and drainage maintenance) are pursued to reduce \r\nflood risk in urban Senegal (Schaer, 2015), Kenya (Thorn et al., 2015), \r\nBrazil (Mansur et al., 2018) and Guyana (Mycoo, 2014) (Box 4.7; 9.8.5.1; \r\n12.5.5.3; FAQ12.2)."


id: 35bf82002514dd2c86d32b5af5cabc1a
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"Further studies are required to ascertain the effectiveness of adaptation \r\nmeasures implemented since AR5, particularly for the growing \r\npopulations of informal and peri-urban settlements. For example, in \r\nurban Africa, such informal settlements are sites of political contestation \r\nas residents resist municipal relocation strategies for flood alleviation \r\n(Douglas, 2018). In addition, the growing complexity of challenges \r\nfacing urban water management, such as climate change, urbanisation \r\nand environmental degradation, warrants a transformative shift away \r\nfrom prevailing siloed approaches of water supply, sanitation and \r\ndrainage to more integrated systems that enhance adaptive capacity \r\n(Ma et al., 2015; Franco-Torres et al., 2020)."


id: 89a809cf902faacb5b8a1e87b3133731
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"In summary, adaptation measures to cope with changes in freshwater \r\necosystems have been implemented in many locations around the world. \r\nHowever, challenges remain, including improving the evidence base of \r\ntheir effectiveness, scaling up these interventions, mainstreaming across \r\nsectors and receiving more adaptation finance (medium confidence)."


id: 1566fc40a89c32cdf71ad29d196cf9bd
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"AR5 concluded with high confidence that challenges for adaptation \r\nactions (though not water) are particularly high in regions affected by \r\nconflicts (Field et  al., 2014a). Although climate-conflict linkages are \r\ndisputed (Section 4.3.6), the potential for synergies between conflict risk \r\nreduction and adaptation to climate change exists (Mach et al., 2019). For \r\nexample, discourses around climate-conflict inter-linkages can present "


id: 1c414211ef10ce92c3b7cdab6c43741f
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"In summary, although water-related adaptation is underway in the \r\nurban, peri-urban and municipal sectors of some nations, governance, \r\ntechnical and economic barriers remain in implementing locally informed \r\nstrategies, particularly in developing countries (high confidence)."


id: a0f69e1a1d860d662f0f098d04c099bb
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"(a) Green and blue strategies of urban water adaptation prioritise ecosystem restoration, such as wetlands restoration."


id: e02d3052e8e99126d00c4c82d73f1eb1
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"(b) Grey water strategies are hard engineering approaches to urban water adaptation, including infrastructure such as pipes and canals, with extensive areas of impervious surfaces.\r\n(c) Hybrid approaches combine green, blue and grey adaptation strategies, such that ecosystem functions are complemented by engineered infrastructure, such as constructed \r\nwetlands, green roofs and riparian buffers. Green and blue and hybrid approaches are variously classified in terms of a circular economy, water sensitive urban design, nature-based \r\nsolutions (NbS), integrated urban water management, and ecological infrastructure. Adapted from Depietri and McPhearson (2017)."


id: a283173c71fc11656cf47c97ba93b08d
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content:
"Box 4.5 | Reduce, Remove, Reuse and Recycle (4Rs): Wastewater Reuse and Desalination as an \r\nAdaptation Response"


id: a323ecc09692fba9687e1a7b3bb61a39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 23236
content:
"Circular economies can increase the available sustainable adaptation space by moving away from a linear mode of production of 'extract\u0002produce-use-discard' to a '4Rs' closed loop to reduce pollution at the source, remove contaminants from wastewater, reuse treated \r\nwastewater and recover valuable by-products (UN Water, 2017; see WGIII 11.3.3)."


id: 781976e1ef968df89c952a87f90e090f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"In summary, a resilient circular economy is central to deliver access to water and sanitation, with, wastewater treatment, desalination \r\nand water reuse as viable adaptation options compatible with the Paris Agreement, while safeguarding ecological flows according to the \r\nSDG6 targets for climate resilient development (medium evidence, high agreement)."


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"to climate change and conflicts. However, on the other hand, these \r\nadaptation options sometimes may have unintended consequences \r\nby increasing existing tensions (Milman and Arsano, 2014); displacing \r\nclimate hazards to more vulnerable and marginalised groups (Milman \r\nand Arsano, 2014; Mach et  al., 2019), for example, pastoralists \r\n(Zografos et al., 2014); and favouring some over others, such as industry \r\nover agriculture (Iglesias and Garrote, 2015), upstream countries over \r\ndownstream countries (Veldkamp et al., 2017), and men over women \r\n(Chandra et  al., 2017). Such unintended consequences may happen \r\nwhen adaptation measures intended to reduce vulnerability produce \r\nmaladaptive outcomes by rebounding or shifting vulnerability to "


id: f49faf36dd2dc11acb6f0e0a5a4b4d57
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"opportunities for peace building and cooperation (Matthew, 2014; \r\nAbrahams, 2020). Indeed, adaptation efforts are needed in the context \r\nof conflict, where the pre-existing vulnerability undermines the capacity \r\nto manage climatic stresses. In addition, adaptive capacity depends on \r\ncontextual factors such as power relations and historical, ethnic tensions \r\n(Petersen-Perlman et al., 2017; Eriksen et al., 2021), which need to be \r\nadequately considered in the design of adaptation strategies."


id: 1bc7025e87d712228896f6150f0a9bb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In the context of climate change-induced water insecurity, nature-based solutions (NbS) are an adaptation response that relies on natural \r\nprocesses to enhance water availability and water quality and mitigate risks associated with water-related disasters while contributing \r\nto biodiversity (IUCN, 2020)."


id: 6d4abbba3e91735dfe42e7fdb43cfda5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Until recently, NbS have been considered mainly for mitigation (Kapos et al., 2020; Seddon et al., 2020). Yet, NbS increase the low-cost \r\nadaptation options that expand the adaptation space due to their multiple co-benefits (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2). \r\nFurthermore, a meta-review of 928 NbS measures globally shows that NbS largely addresses water-related hazards like heavy precipitation \r\n(37%) and drought (28%) (Kapos et al., 2020)."


id: 67dabf8fba5213126c7250b37d18207a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Natural infrastructure (green and blue) uses natural or semi-natural systems, for example, wetlands, healthy freshwater ecosystems, etc., \r\nto supply clean water, regulate flooding, enhance water quality and control erosion (6.3.3.1 to 6.3.3.6.). Grey infrastructure can damage \r\nbiophysical and hydrological processes, seal soils and bury streams. Compared with grey physical infrastructure, natural infrastructure \r\nis often more flexible, cost-effective and can provide multiple societal and environmental benefits simultaneously (McVittie et al., 2018; \r\nUN Water, 2018; IPBES, 2019). There is increasing evidence and assessment methods on the role of NbS for climate change adaptation \r\nand disaster risk reduction at different scales (Chausson et al., 2020; Seddon et al., 2020; Cassin and Matthews, 2021) (Section 4.6.5)."


id: 2fdd1eb63891554e6e8bebd03de88c6e
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"At the landscape scale, there is evidence that impacts from fluvial and coastal floods can be mitigated through water-based NbS like \r\ndetention/retention basins, river restoration and wetlands (Thorslund et  al., 2017; Debele et  al., 2019; Huang et  al., 2020). Several \r\nexamples show the effectiveness of floodplain restoration, natural flood management and making room for the river measures (see \r\nFAQ2.5, Hartmann et al., 2019; Mansourian et al., 2019; Wilkinson et al., 2019) (medium evidence, high agreement). Likewise, the use \r\nof managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in both urban and rural settings will be crucial for groundwater-related adaptation (Zhang et al., \r\n2020a)."


id: 48e5f6fa5128522ffb7ee54d39c0a481
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"At the urban and peri-urban scale, the use and effectiveness of NbS is a crucial feature to build resilience in cities for urban stormwater \r\nmanagement and heat mitigation (Depietri and McPhearson, 2017; Carter et al., 2018; Huang et al., 2020; Babi Almenar et al., 2021) (high \r\nconfidence). NbS have been used for stormwater management by combining water purification and retention functions (Prudencio and \r\nNull, 2018; Oral et al., 2020). NbS have also been used to mitigate impacts from high-impact extreme precipitation events by integrating \r\nlarge-scale NbS investment plans into urban planning in cities like New York and Copenhagen, highlighting the importance of blended \r\nfinance and investment (including insurance) to mainstream NbS investments (Liu and Jensen, 2017; Rosenzweig et al., 2019; Lopez\u0002Gunn et al., 2021). According to the CDP database, one in three cities use NbS to address climate hazards, and this trend is growing \r\n(Kapos et al., 2020)."


id: b58ccc98d9c46d253d98a9f21f795a42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"NbS are cost-effective and can complement or replace grey solutions (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18, 3.2.3) (Chausson et al., \r\n2020). Moreover, estimates of NbS are increasingly based on integrated economic valuations that incorporate co-design with stakeholders \r\nto incorporate LK (Pagano et al., 2019; Giordano et al., 2020; Herivaux and Le Coent, 2021; Palomo et al., 2021) (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). Yet, the performance of NbS themselves may be limited at higher GWLs (Calliari et al., 2019; Morecroft et al., 2019)."


id: 81482b12e31e5db4b768d2cc44e956d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"More knowledge is needed on the long-term benefits of NbS, particularly to hydro-meteorological hazards (Debele et al., 2019). There \r\nis still low evidence for slow-onset events, including the applicability of NbS to manage highly vulnerable ecosystems and in agriculture \r\n(Sonneveld, 2018),"


id: a067430016899d700291dbbe1048831
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, there is growing evidence on NbS effectiveness as an adaptation measure and its critical role for transformative adaptation \r\nto address climate change water-related hazards and water security (medium evidence, high agreement). Moreover, several NbS- --for \r\nexample, natural (blue and green) and grey infrastructure--can help address water-related hazards such as coastal hazards, heavy \r\nprecipitation, drought, erosion and low water quality (high confidence)."


id: c99b1a3287a56352278a65787419488d
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"Furthermore, adaptation in the context of water-related conflicts \r\nis also constrained by economic, institutional and political factors, \r\ncompetition for development (Anguelovski et  al., 2014) and gender \r\nconsiderations (Sultana, 2014; Chandra et al., 2017), which need to be \r\ntaken into account when designing adaptation plans/measures."


id: 6c37fe56bdfb385fdbe86b37f46fb19c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"other actors (Juhola et al., 2016). For example, in the Mekong River \r\nbasin, the construction of dams and water reservoirs contributes to \r\nthe adaptation efforts of the upstream Southeast Asia countries \r\nwhile increasing current/future vulnerability to floods and droughts in \r\ndownstream countries and can emerge as a cause of conflict (Earle \r\net al., 2015; Ngo et al., 2016)."


id: ba90fe971f73ec27f63d47be42a5f0e8
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"4.6.9 Adaptation of the Cultural Water Uses of \r\nIndigenous Peoples, Local Communities and \r\nTraditional Peoples"


id: bec60af523f38a54d4b8d8c9e9b1e344
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"AR5 noted that whether migration is adaptive or maladaptive \r\ndepends on the context and the individuals involved; however, it \r\ndid not focus specifically on hydrological change-induced migration \r\n(Noble et al., 2014). Migration is often regarded as a transformational \r\nadaptation strategy in response to climate-induced hydrological \r\nchanges (Gemenne and Blocher, 2017) but rarely as the primary or \r\nonly adaptation measure (Wiederkehr et  al., 2018; de Longueville \r\net al., 2020; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Migration is \r\namong one of the top five adaptation responses documented in Asia \r\nand Africa (Figure 4.27) and confers several benefits to migrants, yet \r\nmaladaptations are also documented (Figure 4.29). This strategy is not \r\navailable to everyone. Vulnerable populations exposed to hydrological \r\nchanges may become trapped due to a lack of economic and social \r\ncapital required for migration (Adams, 2016; Zickgraf, 2018) (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: c6073fb24743c62095f9a781a427be37
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"AR5 reported that religious and sacred values inform actions taken to \r\nadapt to climate change (Noble et  al., 2014). Neither AR5 nor SR1.5 \r\nreviewed adaptation of indigenous, local and traditional uses of \r\nwater. SROCC highlighted the context-specific adaptation strategies \r\nof vulnerable communities in coastal, polar and high-mountain areas, \r\nreporting that adaptive capacity and adaptation limits are not only \r\nphysical, technical, institutional and financial, but also culturally informed \r\n(Hock et al., 2019b; Meredith et al., 2019; Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: cd059de7aae467274a8043f70de38b78
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"More research on how to ensure migration becomes a successful \r\nadaptation strategy is needed (McLeman et  al., 2016). In addition, \r\nimpacts on women, youth and marginalised groups (McLeman et al., \r\n2016; Miletto, 2017) and immobility issues need more attention \r\n(Zickgraf, 2018)."


id: 2cac9099d8574b31f9882bcb122e01b
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content:
"In summary, measures that facilitate successful migration and inclusive \r\nresettlement may facilitate adaptation to climate-induced hydrological \r\nchanges (medium confidence)."


id: 1bb52c1a49ec384be3b50b30be4d80c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"There is high confidence that relocation (managed retreat) is an \r\nadaptation response for communities in areas impacted by, or at \r\nrisk of, inundation and other hydrological changes (15.3.4.7; 15.5.3). \r\nHowever, relocation can be culturally, socially, financially, politically \r\nand geographically constrained due to the importance of cultural \r\nrelationships with traditional, customary or ancestral lands (high \r\nconfidence) (Albert et  al., 2018; Narayan et  al., 2020; Yates et  al., "


id: b1ca2af2cefa67d29e5a883985dfac93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"2021). Among Pacific islands, for example, the prospect of migration \r\nraises concerns about the loss of cultural identity and IK and practices, \r\nwhich can impact emotional well-being (Yates et al., 2021)."


id: c7ee77ec04d7ca8ee28f92721c5c2c83
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content:
"as inevitable and beyond human intervention (Smith and Rhiney, \r\n2016; Currenti et al., 2019). Yet such cultural beliefs are not necessarily \r\nmaladaptive, as they potentially support other resilience factors, such \r\nas IKLK (Section 4.8.5; Ford et al., 2020), as well as cultural connections \r\nand social ties (Yates et al., 2021)."


id: 5275132240e057db426790fea329b72f
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content:
"As cultural beliefs influence risk perception, there is medium confidence\r\nthat some cultural understandings can foster a false sense of security \r\namong Indigenous Peoples, local communities and traditional peoples \r\nregarding climate-driven hydrological changes. For example, some \r\nmembers of the Rolwaling Sherpa community in Nepal believe that \r\nmountain deities protect them from GLOFs (Sherry and Curtis, 2017)\r\n(Section 4.2.2). Elsewhere, such as in the islands of Fiji and St. Vincent, \r\ncultural beliefs can diminish human agency because change is viewed "


id: f1ee2709f02b41e440068bd11b6c9caf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In sum, although some Indigenous Peoples, local communities and \r\ntraditional peoples can adapt, and are adapting to climate-driven \r\nhydrological changes, and their impacts on and risks to culturally \r\nsignificant practices and beliefs (medium confidence), these strategies \r\nare constrained by structural barriers and adaptation limits (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: de0f634d719b37b3e8f6037ed3c6b33e
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"Floods, due to their rapid onset and destructive force, require specific adaptation measures. Historically, to address flood damages and \r\nrisk protection, retreat and accommodation were most common, emphasizing protecting and retreating (Wong et al., 2014; Bott and \r\nBraun, 2019). Figure 4.22 identifies five major adaptation strategies from a meta-review of water-related adaptation responses that helps \r\nin protecting, retreating and accommodating (Section 4.7.1)."


id: 31850e4bf1bb3c723c00312c2f650431
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Early warning systems (EWS) are defined as integrated systems of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, \r\ncommunication and preparedness activities systems to enable individuals, communities, governments and businesses to take timely action \r\nto reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events (UNISDR, 2021). By this definition, EWS are directly dependent on soft and hard \r\ninfrastructure measures that increase capacity and reduce hazard (Abbas et al., 2018). Aside from the capacity dependent on soft measures \r\nand the monitoring infrastructure, communication at all scales, from national weather services to local leaders, needs to be effective for \r\nprompt action (Devkota et al., 2014). In many cases, EWS might be the only option to reduce flood casualties (Kontar et al., 2015)."


id: 40bf2ea2ab91a3ccc477e1c4debd0e03
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"Accommodating floods has gained popularity as the effects of climate change become more apparent and as notable hydroclimatic \r\nevents exceed the limitations of protective measures (Pritchard and Thielemans, 2014). NbS measures like wetland restoration can act as \r\nmodern infrastructure protection with clear mitigation co-benefit and provide opportunities for accommodating floods. For example, \r\ninitiatives such as 'Room for the River' consider flood safety combined with other values such as landscape, environment and cultural \r\nvalues (Zevenbergen et al., 2015). A popular EbA measure has been wetland restoration, which can control flood peaks, serve as storage "


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"ponds in addition to restoring the environment (Pinto et al., 2018; Saroar, 2018). However, its effectiveness under different conditions is \r\nyet to be assessed (Wamsler et  al., 2016). Flood resilient housing is another form of accommodating and living with floods. These \r\ncomprise mostly of elevated homes or different flood protection measures considering vegetation around the house to make those flood \r\nresilient (Ling et al., 2015; Abbas et al., 2018; Ferdous et al., 2019)."


id: e7f3d3bb41ba2d4876e2cdaedf098995
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"Despite different degrees of effectiveness, no flood adaptation measure is uniquely effective to eliminate flood risk. Adaptation to \r\nfloods needs to be considered at a local level, considering the types of floods, community's capacities and available livelihoods (Fenton \r\net al., 2017a). Ideally, flood adaptation strategies need to include short-term actions linked to long-term goals, be flexible, consider \r\nmultiple strategies and interlink investment agendas of stakeholders (Zevenbergen et al., 2015). Most importantly, flood adaptation and \r\nmanagement options have been proven effective to reduce loss of human lives, but not entirely at sustaining livelihoods and reducing \r\ninfrastructure damages (Rahman and Alam, 2016; Bower et al., 2019; Ferdous et al., 2019)."


id: d6ba40d7bc902f6e2444c290c18ef39d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014) concluded that developing countries \r\nneeded a larger share of adaptation investments for anticipatory \r\nadaptation in the water sector (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\nand that adaptive water management measures were critical in \r\naddressing climate-related uncertainty. Noble et  al. (2014) listed \r\nvarious examples of adaptation options, and water-related adaptation \r\nfeatured prominently in almost all categories. They also discussed the \r\nchallenges of developing metrics for measuring adaptation outcomes \r\nand stressed the importance of transformational adaptation instead of \r\nincremental adaptation. Finally, SR1.5 (de Coninck et al., 2018) made \r\none of the first attempts to systematically assess the feasibility of \r\nadaptation options (Singh and Basu, 2020)."


id: db67737245acc50ad18420678fd40283
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"introduced by individuals and households, followed by the civil society, \r\nand hence autonomous (Figure  4.26). The private sector (defined as \r\nprofit-making companies and distinct from individual farmers and \r\nhouseholds) has played a relatively minor role in initiating adaptation \r\nresponses. However, the low participation of the private sector in \r\ninitiating adaptation responses could be partly an artefact of the nature \r\nof documentation."


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"4.7.1.2 Benefits, Including Co-benefits of Water-related \r\nAdaptation Responses and Resulting Maladaptation"


id: 6e2c0cf4b4fae04fc0bec16ba61b68b3
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"There is no consensus in the literature about ways of measuring the \r\neffectiveness of current adaptation responses in reducing climate\u0002related impacts (Singh et al., 2021). However, various methodologies, \r\nincluding feasibility assessment, have been deployed (Williams et al., \r\n2021). Given the methodological challenges in defining and measuring \r\nthe effectiveness of adaptation in reducing climate risks, in this section, \r\nwe focus on outcomes of water-related adaptation across several \r\ndimensions. A total of 359 studies were identified to contain sufficiently \r\nrobust evidence of documented adaptation outcomes to form the basis \r\nof this assessment (SM4.2, Table  SM4.5; Berrang-Ford et  al., 2021a; \r\nMukherji et al., 2021). Positive outcomes denote benefits of adaptation, \r\nwhile negative outcomes may mean that adaptation was not effective \r\nin bringing any benefits or that it was maladaptive (Schipper, 2020)."


id: 5f9bccb2828d7d7b7caf4ff44aabe633
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"Droughts, followed by precipitation variability and extreme precipitation, \r\nare the two most common hazards against which adaptation responses \r\nare forged. The other three top hazards are general climate impacts, \r\nheat-related hazards and inland and riverine flooding (Figure  4.25). \r\nThe majority of the adaptation responses across all categories were "


id: abbd8235bed26bfae9290bd4b891a7fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Sain et al., 2017; Sanchez and Izzo, 2017; Wood et al., 2017; Adhikari \r\net  al., 2018a; Hellin et  al., 2018; Aniah et  al., 2019; Quandt et  al., \r\n2019; also see Box 5.11). Other examples include mitigation benefits \r\nof climate-smart agricultural practices that reduce input intensity and \r\nhelp in carbon sequestration (Arslan et al., 2015; Somanje et al., 2017), \r\nretrofitting buildings in urban areas with energy-efficient devices for \r\nlowering electricity bills and emissions (Fitzgerald and Lenhart, 2016) \r\nand reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation and urban uses (Morote \r\net al., 2019) (Box 4.5, 4.7.6)."


id: 5c848538fe798ebf94c3620c386ee26a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Not all adaptation responses reduce risks, and some may have long\u0002term maladaptive outcomes, even if they are beneficial in the short term. \r\nMaladaptation often stems from poor planning and implementation of \r\nadaptation responses and because of not addressing the root causes \r\nof vulnerability (Schipper, 2020; Eriksen et al., 2021). Of the 319 case \r\nstudies where adaptation response was found to have some beneficial \r\noutcomes, around one third of them also mentioned the possibility of \r\nmaladaptation. Migration can often have maladaptive outcomes because \r\nmigration can exacerbate the inherent vulnerabilities of migrants \r\n(Section  4.6.8). For example, slum dwellers in cities may earn higher \r\nincomes, but their quality of life worsens (Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2016). \r\nIn some instances, even wage rates in migration hotspots can remain "


id: 6f64cd34003989db3b4228b3835bdb32
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"Co-benefits are defined as mitigation benefits resulting from an \r\nadaptation response (Deng et al., 2017). Around a quarter of papers that \r\ndocumented positive adaptation outcomes also reported mitigation co\u0002benefits. Agroforestry, community forests and forest-based adaptations \r\nare the most oft-cited examples of mitigation co-benefits (Bhatta et al., \r\n2015; Etongo et  al., 2015; Weston et  al., 2015; Pandey et  al., 2017; "


id: d2c1cbf2614d580fba8668be3681bfd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Table 4.8 |  Illustrative examples of case studies of water-related adaptation responses where outcomes were measured (n = 359). These cases include instances where adaptation \r\nbenefits were positive, negative or neutral. Examples also include studies with or without causal and correlation links between adaptation response and outcomes (categories 1, 2 \r\nand 3 studies as described in the caption of Figure 4.23). The purpose of the table is to provide a list of illustrative examples to showcase the wide range of adaptation responses \r\nthat are being implemented. Table 4.9 zooms into examples where adaptation had positive benefits on any of the selected parameters described in Section 4.7.1.2."


id: 6348b46cee6d4c629d0650da2e3d70c9
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" Water-related adaptations and climate hazards against which adaptation responses are forged. Evidence and confidence are derived in the sa\r\ne 4.23."


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"Figure 4.26 |  Water-related adaptations and their initiators. The initiator of adaptation is defined broadly and includes the entities who initiate a response, implement that \r\nresponse or engage in that response in any way, including leading, financing or enabling. Evidence and confidence are derived in the same way as in Figure 4.23."


id: 5981b32def5b6f1bfec266851861b8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Table 4.9 |  Illustrative examples of adaptation responses and their benefits across different outcome indicators. All these studies are either category 1 or category 2 studies in that the \r\nlink between adaptation response and the outcome is either causal or correlated with one another. These benefits notwithstanding, links of adaptation benefits to climate and associated \r\nrisk reduction are not always clear. Some of these adaptation responses can have beneficial outcomes in one of the five parameters, but can have maladaptive outcomes in others."


id: 3cff53c1e1c1573427cc4ba913dd5826
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"low due to the high volume of the migrant population (Fenton et al., \r\n2017b); as such, it does not help buffer consumption against rainfall \r\nshocks (Gao and Mills, 2018). Migration also has gendered impacts, with \r\ngirls from migrating families being taken out of school (Gioli et al., 2014) \r\nor interrupting children's education overall (Warner and Afifi, 2014). In \r\nplanned relocation from vulnerable urban slums, relocation sites can be \r\nfar from job sites and increase social conflicts (Tauhid and Zawani, 2018)."


id: b5ec71c595bbf31737eca53c5c543cfe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Even interventions that have positive carbon co-benefits like forestry \r\nand agroforestry can have maladaptive consequences on land and \r\nwater resources, especially if inappropriate species (Etongo et  al., "


id: edf2daf1b3de1fcbadf707becb5e0aab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 34911
content:
"Several adaptation options have been shown to have beneficial effects \r\non societally relevant outcomes under current climate conditions \r\n(Section 4.7.1.2) and will remain critical to adapt to future climate change. "


id: 140573dfda91a11e657e98a08a25daca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Figure 4.27 |  Top panel: location of case studies of water-related adaptation responses (996 data points from 319 studies). In these 996 data points, at least one \r\npositive outcome was recorded in one of the five outcome indicators. These outcome indicators are economic/financial, outcomes for vulnerable people, ecological/environmental, \r\nwater-related, and sociocultural and institutional. Middle panel: the top six documented adaptation options per region as a fraction of the total of reported studies, with grey bars \r\ncontaining the share of all other adaptation responses. In most instances, the top six adaptation categories include nearly 3/4 of the studies. Bottom panel: The spider diagrams \r\nshow the number of studies reporting beneficial outcomes for one or more dimensions for the top six adaptation options identified in each region. Due to a small number of studies \r\nin small island states, a spider diagram was not generated for the small island states."


id: e1b718440f1f4d2a46cce6588460e550
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"and vary depending on the tested response options (Qin et al., 2018) \r\n(Figure  4.29), with moderate to small effectiveness, large residual \r\nimpacts or potential maladaptive outcomes, as well as decreasing \r\neffectiveness with increasing warming (Figure 4.28) (high confidence). \r\nFor studies testing results across a range of scenarios, approaches show \r\nincreasingly mixed (Qin et al., 2018) and limited effects (Amouzou et al., \r\n2019) with higher warming, with overall reductions across warming \r\nlevels for most tested responses (Qin et al., 2018)."


id: 2a3872d0e1d8cf017aa9b90c08a86f43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"However, there is limited quantitative information on the future viability \r\nof available responses to reduce projected climate impacts effectively. \r\nHowever, the context-specific nature of adaptation on the ground and \r\nthe uncertainties associated with future climate outcomes, both in terms \r\nof policy decisions around mitigation and model-inherent uncertainties, \r\nmake long-term projections of adaptation effectiveness of limited use \r\nfor decision-making on the ground. However, such projections are still \r\nneeded to understand the efficacy of current technical and managerial \r\nsolutions to reduce climate risk. Consequently, an increasing body of \r\nliterature focuses on the effectiveness of specific interventions to reduce \r\nprojected climate risks in a local to regional setting."


id: 3a80e0a1cd6b2f395c6466da180bced5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"This section provides a quantitative aggregate assessment of \r\neffectiveness of projected water-related climate adaptations at different \r\nlevels of GWLs (SM4.2). Effectiveness is defined as the potential of a \r\ngiven adaptation measure to address projected changes in climate and \r\nreturn the system under analysis to baseline conditions. If the measure \r\ncannot fully compensate for the projected climate risk, residual risks \r\nremain, defined as the fraction of risk remaining after adaptation. For \r\nexample, in many regions, projected temperature-driven yield loss \r\ncan be reduced by shifting to or increasing irrigation. However, yields \r\noften do not always fully return to baseline conditions without climate \r\nchange, leaving residual risk after adaptation. Assessed options are \r\nlimited to technical solutions, which have quantitative entry points to \r\nglobal climate impact models."


id: f5b4d2b710425a1e9d89f36b27d00cee
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"Most adaptation projections focus on water-related interventions in \r\nthe agricultural sector, including irrigation-related responses, shifting \r\nplanting dates, changing crops and cultivars, and water and soil \r\nconservation. Sectoral projections of adaptation effectiveness are \r\nlimited in forestry- and agroforestry-related responses, flood protection \r\nmeasures (excluding here options that are solely related to effects of sea \r\nlevel rise), urban water-related adaptation and energy-related responses. \r\nThe majority of assessed studies focus on comparing different variations \r\nof one or several response options in terms of timing or duration, for \r\nexample, a shift in planting dates of 10 d and 20 d, relative to present-day \r\npractice and provide results for a range of scenarios and (or) timeframes."


id: d16aa98ce616665f6f87aabe945064e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"A total of 45 studies were identified for this assessment, based on their \r\nquantitative assessment of the effects of adaptation on projected impacts \r\n(SM4.2 for the method of future projected effectiveness assessment). \r\nFrom each study, the distinct combinations of specific variations of \r\nadaptations, scenarios and timeframes assessed were considered as \r\nindividual data points, providing a total of 450 unique data points for \r\nthe assessment (Table SM4.6). The study-specific temperature increase \r\nwas classified relative to the 1850-1900 baseline for each data point, \r\nbased on the model and scenario specifications provided and grouped \r\ninto outcomes at 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC and 4degC. The effectiveness is assessed \r\nbased on the fraction of risk that an option can reduce. Co-benefits \r\nare defined as a situation where outcomes improve relative to baseline \r\nconditions, whereas maladaptive outcomes describe a situation where \r\nrisks increase after adaptation has been implemented."


id: 9143e9c35cb668aa740b5da544acb979
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"A wide range of water and soil management-related options \r\n(Figure 4.28), including mulching, no tilling or contour farming, has been \r\nassessed for future effectiveness (eight studies; 49 data points). Results \r\nunderline the context-specific nature and need to carefully adjust the \r\nspecific options to a regional setting, with variations of options leading \r\nto effective outcomes or residual impacts within individual studies (Qiu \r\net al., 2019) and across regions and warming levels."


id: 78f93b0990bda1e5afbdeb44f0fba059
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Several studies assess the future effectiveness of improved cultivars and \r\nagronomic practices, such as changing fertiliser application or switching \r\nto drought-resistant crops (five studies; 85 data points). Results show \r\na range of effectiveness levels across regions and warming levels "


id: ff0ee22de0d7c550642dd9c93d53dc1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Figure 4.28 |  Projected effectiveness of adaptation options in returning the system to a study-specific baseline state relative to the projected climate \r\nimpact; and level of residual risk retained after adaptation, relative to baseline conditions. Regional summaries are based on IPCC regions. Warming levels refer to the "


id: c794264cb0525222a680e028f237fd2
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"global mean temperature (GMT) increase relative to an 1850-1900 baseline. For each data point, the study-specific GMT increase was calculated to show effectiveness at 1.5degC, \r\n2degC, 3degC and 4degC. Based on the ability of an implemented option to return the system to its baseline state, the effectiveness is classified based on the share of risk the option can \r\nreduce: large (>80%); moderate (80-50%); small (<50-30%); insufficient (<30%). Where the system state is improved relative to baseline, co-benefits are identified. Residual \r\nimpacts show the share of remaining impacts after adaptation has been implemented: negligible (<5%); small (5 to <20%); moderate (20 to <50); large (>=50%). Where risks \r\nincrease after adaptation, data points are shown as maladaptation. All underlying data is provided in Table SM4.6."


id: c38c942aca3980f90e506f76c344e593
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"points) show the highest effectiveness across agricultural adaptation \r\noutcomes and generally project moderate to high effectiveness \r\nwith the potential for co-benefits (Figure 4.28). Though maladaptive \r\noutcomes are also documented, residual risks are limited, also at \r\nhigher levels of warming. Therefore, developing integrated plans of \r\nsynergistic options linked to adequate monitoring and evaluation \r\napproaches and designed to adjust to changing conditions \r\ncontinuously is desirable to minimise climate risk and ensure food \r\nsecurity (Babaeian et al., 2021)."


id: 5edf9c3fd84cab5393f3d9e9a616f8f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Whether specific adaptation responses are shown to be effective \r\nand even lead to co-benefits or are associated with residual impacts \r\nis highly contextually, location- and crop-specific. In addition, the \r\nspecific climate-impact-scenario combinations play an important role \r\nin determining assessed outcomes."


id: fe2b5550d05646f9aeda1706688c9016
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"Globally, agroforestry-related adaptation (four studies; 18 data points) \r\nis moderately to highly effective, with the potential for substantial \r\nco-benefits at 1.5deg and 2degC of warming, with a sharp decline in \r\neffectiveness at 3degC and 4degC and a substantial increase in residual risk \r\nand maladaptive outcomes (Figure 4.28)."


id: ff06e9c9f02ea2d9cc262e694a0fc4e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Flood risk-related adaptation (four studies; 47 data points) is associated \r\nwith the potential for substantial co-benefits relative to present-day \r\nflood risk, indicating a current adaptation gap larger than for other \r\nimpact areas. These co-benefits decline with increasing warming. \r\nLimits to the tested options become increasingly apparent at 3degC and \r\n4degC of warming, where residual risks increase for most assessed cases \r\n(Figure 4.28)."


id: f4c712e1f614960ccbede750eb25696f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Adaptation projections for urban water risks as well as the energy \r\nsector are limited to one study each, with one data point for urban \r\nadaptation (Rosenberger et al., 2021) and 80 data points for different \r\nvariations of adaptation outcomes across regions and scenarios for \r\nthe energy sector (van Vliet et  al., 2016c). Sustainable stormwater \r\nmanagement, focusing on a combination of nature-based solutions, is \r\nshown to be highly effective and yields co-benefits at 3degC. However, \r\nthese results were gained in a specific case study setting in a European \r\ncity with limited generalizability (Figure 4.28)."


id: 83ad7e9b6f6dab584c8aa39c1049aec7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"The assessment of adaptation in the hydropower and thermoelectric \r\npower-generation sector indicates high effectiveness and co-benefits \r\nacross all regions for 1.5degC, with decreasing effectiveness and \r\nincreasing residual risks for 2degC and 3degC of warming and highest \r\nreductions in effectiveness for Central and South America (Figure 4.28)."


id: e43c62359d4cef51afe83eb0cee61d63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Quantitative projections of future adaptation depend on available impact \r\nmodels to analyse the effect of specific adaptation interventions. However, \r\nsince not all possible future adaptation responses can be incorporated \r\nin climate impact models, this is a major limitation to assessing the full \r\nscope of options available in the future. For example, many frequently \r\nimplemented measures showing effective outcomes, such as behavioural \r\nand capacity building-focused responses or migration and off-farm \r\ndiversification (Section  4.7.1.2), are not incorporated in quantitative \r\nwater-related climate impact projection models. In addition, projections \r\nof future adaptation depend on currently available technologies or \r\napproaches, but new methods and technologies will probably emerge. "


id: fe8837a0efe8ef212758eed36f267d76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Water-related adaptation responses:\r\nCurrent beneficial outcomes, co-benefits with \r\nmitigation, and maladaptive outcomes of responses \r\nand future effectiveness of adaptation and residual \r\nrisk under different levels of global warming."


id: 1d0ead524a988a8363d57621477dd103
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"and, therefore, not covered by the literature assessed in this report. \r\nFurther, there is limited knowledge about the effectiveness of current \r\nadaptation in reducing climate-related risks due to documentation and \r\nmethodological challenges elaborated in Section 4.7.1.2 (SM4.2)."


id: 6022511b8054d1799f1e3d77809d66f2
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"than negative outcomes. However, there may be a positive reporting \r\nbias in the literature, as positive outcomes are more likely to be \r\nreported than negative ones. Also, positive outcome in one parameter \r\ndoes not preclude negative outcomes in others, so maladaptation \r\nis still possible even when an adaption has some positive benefits \r\n(Section  4.7.1.2). In addition, much of the adaptation happening \r\non the ground may not be published in peer-reviewed publications "


id: 7a6b394f9e6663ceeade06468d8d5592
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"In contrast, evaluating the effectiveness for future projected adaptations \r\nis methodologically possible (Section  4.7.2, and SM4.2), but every "


id: f6d7fffc757ec63e069f0293f737449d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"land sector when extreme forms of desertification lead to a complete \r\nloss of land productivity (high confidence) (Mirzabaev et al., 2019)."


id: af86d33b8b77222b332ae8f8b285f782
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Adaptations that are beneficial now (e.g., crop- and water-related \r\nones) are also projected to be effective to varying extents in reducing \r\nfuture risks, with the degree of effectiveness strongly depending on \r\nfuture GWLs. For example, beyond a certain level of warming (2degC \r\nand upwards), the effectiveness of most options is projected to \r\nreduce, and residual impacts are projected to increase. Reduction in \r\nthe effectiveness of future adaptation at higher global warming levels \r\nemphasises the need for limiting warming to 1.5degC, as space for \r\nadaptation solution starts to shrink beyond that for most options for \r\nwhich future projections exists (high confidence)."


id: 9eeb660ca550ca57e1365472cdde113e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 22543
content:
"The lack of financial and technological resources constrains adaptation \r\nimplementation (Castells-Quintana et al., 2018; Iglesias et al., 2018) \r\nand was identified as significant or moderate across all water-related \r\nadaptation responses, with significant constraints especially present \r\nin options related to the agricultural sector (Figure 4.30). For example, \r\nfinancial resources were significant constraints to implementing \r\nClimate Smart Agriculture in Guatemala, a relevant adaptation strategy \r\nto improve food security, resilience, and low emission development \r\n(Sain et al., 2017)."


id: bfabf002309ac92c95d2d144914875ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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vector_id: 27714
content:
"To sum up, there are two significant knowledge gaps in our understanding \r\nof water-related adaptations. First, the nature of literature on current \r\nadaptation makes it challenging to infer their effectiveness in reducing \r\nclimate risks, even though the benefits of adaptation are clear (high \r\nconfidence). Second, not all adaptation responses that are possible in \r\nthe future can be modelled because of inherent limitations to what can \r\nbe modelled. Thus, advancement in tools and metrics for measuring \r\nthe effectiveness of current adaptation in reducing climate risks and \r\nsuitable downscaled climate and impact models that incorporate \r\neconomic, social, cultural and management aspects for an extensive \r\nrange of future adaptation options is needed."


id: 770c808e812b38ac7d2865f9e22fcc48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"For some regions of the world, such as small islands (Karnauskas \r\net al., 2016; Karnauskas et al., 2018) (Box 4.2) and the Mediterranean \r\n(Cross-Chapter Paper 4) (Schleussner et  al., 2016), aridity increases \r\nhave the potential to pose hard adaptation limits. In mountain and \r\npolar regions, changes in the cryosphere (Sections 4.2.2, 4.4.2) may "


id: ec7083d64775b0c4b47fa34f37f81d76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Figure 4.30 |  Adaptation constraints manifest across a range of dimensions and here are assessed based on a meta-review of water-related adaptation \r\n(Section 4.7.1, SM4.2, and Table SM4.5). Where less than five articles are available for assessment, data is insufficient to assess the extent to which a constraint is present. \r\nWhere less than 20% of the articles reporting on the respective adaptation option identify the presence of a constraint, it is classified as 'limited', where 20 to 50% report on a \r\nspecific constraint it is considered as 'moderate'. Where more than 50% of articles report on the presence, the constraint is considered 'significant'. This assessment is based on \r\nthe available peer-reviewed literature assessing adaptation benefits in the water sector--in practice, these or other constraints may still be significant, but have not have been \r\nidentified in peer-review sources."


id: 4f411a1161b4932a5125b3e225c396da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"2018). Although the information on climate change adaptation that has \r\nbeneficial impacts, including enabling conditions and success factors \r\nspecific to the water sector, is emerging, significant knowledge gaps \r\nremain (Section 4.7.1.2) (Gotgelf et al., 2020). Further understanding the \r\nconstraints and limits that exist with regard to adaptation in the water \r\nsector is becoming urgent in light of increasing slow (e.g., droughts) and \r\nrapid (e.g., floods) onset impacts associated with climate change."


id: 31618d8f8f60dd05d60ddac2b95b1aab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Taking action towards adaptation critically determines the outcomes \r\nand impacts of climate change processes across space and time. Where \r\nefforts to reduce risk do not effectively occur, losses and damages \r\noccur as a consequence of climate change, some of which can have \r\nirreversible and existential effects (van der Geest and Warner, 2015; \r\nPage and Heyward, 2016; Thomas and Benjamin, 2018a; Mechler \r\net al., 2019). Water-related impacts that occurred despite implemented \r\nadaptation have been documented across all world regions (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 4.31)."


id: f5860b6b74116d31a55ecf6b801ef162
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Integrated approaches, such as linking land use and water policies (Mehdi \r\net  al., 2015), inter-institutional networks (Azhoni et  al., 2017), nexus \r\napproaches (Box 4.8) (Conway et al., 2015) as well as consideration of \r\nlinkages to the SDGs (Section 4.8) (Gunathilaka et al., 2018) are crucial to \r\novercoming constraints in water adaptation. In addition, monitoring and \r\nevaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures, policies and actions \r\ncan contribute to knowledge, awareness and data to support adaptation \r\nimplementation in the future (Sections 4.7.1; 4.8) (Klostermann et al., "


id: e0bd1bb83dd48b22776f357b06605c42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32864
content:
"Advances in climate change attribution (Section 4.2; SM4.3; Figure 4.20) \r\nshow the direct effects of anthropogenic climate change, also with \r\nregard to climate extremes. These advances also provide the basis \r\nfor climate litigation (Marjanac and Patton, 2018) to hold countries/\r\ncompanies accountable for climate change impacts, for example, \r\nconcerning risks of glacial lake outburst in Peru (Frank et al., 2019)."


id: 5204ca610f94141ef854a655d7f2ae7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"A further increase in the frequency and/or intensity of water-related \r\nextremes (Section  4.4) will also increase consequent risks and \r\nassociated losses and damages (Section  4.5), primarily for exposed \r\nand vulnerable communities globally (Bouwer, 2019). After assessing \r\nthe future potential of currently available technologies to reduce \r\nprojected water-related climate impacts, there is evidence that \r\nresidual impacts will remain after adaptation for most adaptation \r\noptions and levels of warming, with increasing residual risks at higher \r\nwarming levels (Section 4.7.2). Financial, technical and legal support \r\nwill be needed when hard limits are transgressed and loss and damage \r\noccurs (Mechler et  al., 2020). Knowledge gaps remain regarding \r\nquantified information on limits and constraints to adaptation in the \r\nwater sector."


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"In summary, institutional constraints (governance, institutions, policy), \r\nincluding path dependency and financial and information constraints, \r\nare the main challenge to adaptation implementation in the water sector \r\n(high confidence). Water-related losses and damages that manifest \r\ndespite or beyond implemented adaptation have been observed across \r\nworld regions, primarily for exposed and vulnerable communities (high \r\nconfidence). Hard limits to adaptation due to limited water resources \r\nwill emerge for small islands (medium evidence, high agreement) and \r\nregions dependent on glacier- and snowmelt (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement)."


id: f248a82bbe3fb0b583adce40725a6cbf
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"Estimating adaptation costs for climate change impacts on the various \r\nwater use sectors is vital for decision-making, budgeting, and resource \r\nallocation (Chambwera et  al., 2014). However, in AR5, studies on \r\nadaptation costs for water were deemed to have 'limited coverage' \r\nand mainly focused on 'isolated case studies'; costs in agriculture were \r\n'extremely limited' (Chambwera et al., 2014)."


id: 4149e61eda35b7cffb15bd264f297073
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"One estimate on observed losses due to climate change from the \r\nUK notes that almost 50% of freshwater thermal capacity is lost on \r\nextreme high-temperature days, causing losses in the range of average \r\nGBP 29-66 million/year (Byers et al., 2020). However, global estimates \r\nof current losses because of climate change impacts on water resources \r\nremain few. Most of the evidence is focused on projected damages \r\nrather than actual ones (World Bank, 2016; Rozenberg and Fay, 2019)."


id: ecfe3f4041311093a72de76eee21d921
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Without adaptation, water-related impacts of climate change are \r\nprojected to reduce global GDP by 0.49% in 2050 under SSP3, with \r\nsignificant regional variations for the Middle East (14%); Sahel (11.7%); \r\nCentral Asia (10.7%), and East Asia (7%) (World Bank, 2016). In Asia, \r\nwater-related impacts of climate change on all sectors of the economy \r\nare projected to reduce GDP by 0.9% (in high-income Asia) to 2.7% (in \r\nlow-income Asia) by 2050 without adaptation or mitigation. Under the \r\nA1B scenario, real GDP is projected to fall by 0.78% by 2030 in South Asia \r\n(Ahmed and Suphachalasai, 2014). In Sub-Saharan Africa, damages from \r\nfloods in 2100 are projected at 0.5% of GDP under a 2degC temperature rise \r\nwithout adaptation; and will be non-uniformly spread across countries \r\n(Markandya, 2017; Dottori et al., 2018). In Europe, annual damages due \r\nto coastal flooding are projected at EUR93 billion by 2100 under RCP8.5-"


id: 22d22153bdb2e7687a64921717f55631
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Several challenges remain for sound operationalisation of the nexus, notably insufficient data, information and knowledge in understanding \r\nthe WEF inter-linkages and lack of systematic tools to address trade-offs involved in the nexus and to generate future projections (Liu \r\net al., 2017a; Liu et al., 2018b). There are recent signs of progress in developing models and tools for addressing the nexus trade-offs, \r\nfor example, the bioenergy-water nexus (Ai et al., 2020). There is a need to move beyond viewing the WEF nexus as a way of problem \r\nidentification to seek integrated solutions to interconnected problems."


id: e4082fa679f8f2ee76b658038d7ad2db
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"actual costs (Blackburn and Pelling, 2018; Abedin et al., 2019; Brown \r\net al., 2019; Momblanch et al., 2019; Page and Dilling, 2020) (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement).\r\n4.7.6 "


id: 64fd531558488e0d6e1d459a39974060
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"In AR5, there was medium evidence and high agreement that some \r\nadaptation and mitigation measures can lead to maladaptive outcomes, \r\nsuch as a rise in GHG emissions, while further exacerbating water scarcity \r\nleading to increased vulnerability to climate change, now or in the future \r\n(Noble et al., 2014). In addition, SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, \r\n2018a) and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019b) reiterated the challenge of trade-offs \r\nthat may undermine sustainable development. Conversely, adaptation, \r\nwhen framed and implemented appropriately, can synergistically reduce \r\nemissions and enhance sustainable development."


id: be80a55836cf7574a18f2aa73a472fd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, climate change impacts on water resources are projected to \r\nlower GDP in many low-and middle-income countries without adequate \r\nadaptation measures (high confidence). However, estimating the exact \r\nquantum of future GDP loss due to water-related impacts of climate \r\nchange is fraught with several methodological challenges. Adaptation \r\nmeasures that focus on reducing water-related impacts of climate change \r\nwill help stem losses further. Still, more work needs to be done on actual \r\nbenefits and costs of adaptation strategies and residual impacts and risks \r\nof delaying adaptation action (medium confidence). In addition, better \r\nevidence on the costs and benefits of low-regret solutions, such as water \r\npricing, increasing water use efficiency through technology and service \r\nimprovements, and enhanced support for autonomous adaptation, is \r\nalso needed for informed decision-making (high confidence)."


id: 42e45e6866e29f0fbea0f6175356dafe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Different mitigation pathways can either increase or decrease water \r\nwithdrawals or water consumption (or both, or either) depending on \r\nthe specific combination of mitigation technologies deployed (high \r\nconfidence) (Fricko et al., 2016; Jakob and Steckel, 2016; Mouratiadou \r\net al., 2016; Fujimori et al., 2017; Parkinson et al., 2019). For example, \r\nthe impacts of climate change mitigation on future global water \r\ndemand depend largely on assumptions regarding socioeconomic and \r\nwater policy conditions and range from reduction of 15,000 km3\r\n to an \r\nincrease of more than 160,000 km3\r\n by the end of century (Mouratiadou "


id: 2c0f4a5166c20d9ea1cb4b2b8734f228
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content:
"et  al., 2016). This section assesses some of the mitigation and \r\nadaptation measures from a water trade-off and synergy lens."


id: 35494c30024d9b66fa0f3a8df79e8a71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"currently at 9.66 km3\r\n yr-1, by 31-50% (to 12.66 km3 yr-1 and 14.47 km3\r\nyr-1, respectively) depending on the cooling and CCS technology \r\ndeployed, and hence are best deployed in locations which are not \r\nwater scarce (Rosa et  al., 2020c) (medium confidence). In Asia, the \r\nnear-term mitigation scenario with high CCS deployment increases \r\nthe average regional water withdrawal intensity of coal generation \r\nby 50-80% compared to current withdrawals (Wang et  al., 2019b). \r\nCarbon can be 'scrubbed' from thermoelectric power plant emissions \r\nand injected for storage in deep geological strata (Turner et al., 2018), \r\nbut this can lead to pollution of deep aquifers (Chen et al., 2021) and \r\nhave health consequences (low confidence)."


id: a53542678d2c5d12b100d3b138afacf2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Solar pumps for irrigation are increasingly introduced where \r\nconventional energy is not available (Senthil Kumar et  al., 2020) or \r\nsupply is intermittent or expensive (Shah et al., 2018), for example, in \r\nAfrica (Schmitter et al., 2018), Europe (Rubio-Aliaga et al., 2016) and \r\nSouth Asia (Sarkar and Ghosh, 2017). Solar pumps can replace diesel \r\nand electric pumps (Rajan et al., 2020), potentially reduce 8-11% of \r\nIndia's carbon emissions (~45.3-62.3 MMT of CO2) attributable to \r\ngroundwater pumping while also boosting agricultural productivity \r\n(Gupta, 2019). However, in the absence of incentives to deter \r\ngroundwater over-exploitation (Shah et  al., 2018), solar pumps may \r\nexacerbate groundwater depletion (Closas and Rap, 2017; Gupta, 2019) \r\n(low evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 41db104bf43a5fab725f418de3ef0049
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"In many places, treatment and reuse of wastewater from urban \r\nresidential and industrial sources may be the principal supply \r\noption under acute water scarcity (US EPA, 2017) and help reduce \r\nother freshwater withdrawals (Tram Vo et  al., 2014; Diaz-Elsayed \r\net  al., 2019). While reuse may recover valuable nutrients, capture \r\nenergy as methane, and save water, effluent containing heavy \r\nmetals may degrade land and surface and groundwater quality \r\nand pose a salinisation risk in semiarid regions (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Agricultural reuse of poor-quality wastewater will \r\nbecome increasingly necessary, but treatment is energy-intensive and \r\nmay contribute to further GHG emissions (Qadir et al., 2014; Salgot \r\nand Folch, 2018) (Box 4.5)."


id: bbf33b45e35da217cd2b80035a380060
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content:
"Desalination of seawater or brackish water is an adaptation measure \r\nin many coastal water-scarce regions (Hanasaki et  al., 2016; Jones \r\net al., 2019). Solar desalination is developing rapidly, and it lessens the \r\ncarbon footprint of conventional, fossil-fuel-powered desalinisation \r\nplants (Pouyfaucon and Garcia-Rodriguez, 2018) (also see Box  4.5). \r\nHowever, the desalinisation process is energy-intensive (Caldera et al., \r\n2018); it ejects brine that is difficult to manage inland, has high salinity \r\nand other contaminants (Wilder et al., 2016) (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Box 4.5)."


id: 70e437e741a4b168d72675ea80db297e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Negative-emission technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC) of \r\nCO2, could reduce emissions up to 3 GtCO2/year by 2035, equivalent \r\nto 7% of 2019 global emissions. However, they can increase net water \r\nconsumption by 35 km3\r\n yr-1 in 2050 (Fuhrman et  al., 2020) under \r\nthe low-overshoot emissions scenario. According to other estimates, \r\ncapturing 10 Gt CO2 could translate to water losses of 10-100 km3\r\n, \r\ndepending on the technology deployed and climatic conditions \r\n(temperate vs. tropical) (Chapter 12, WGIII). Some DAC technologies \r\nthat include solid sorbents also produce water as a by-product, but not \r\nin quantities that can offset total water losses (Beuttler et al., 2019; \r\nFasihi et al., 2019) (medium confidence)."


id: 8735f7de1306a6c6f980389a24c113ea
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"Developing countries are projected to witness the highest increase in \r\nfuture energy demand under 2degC global warming leading to significant \r\nincreases in water use for energy production (Fricko et  al., 2016) \r\n(Section 4.5.2). Results from a simulation study on retrofitting coal\u0002fired power plants built after 2000 with carbon capture and storage \r\n(CCS) technologies show an increase in global water consumption, "


id: ae75390da99e64578adf09b3820f1418
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"spaces, such as green infrastructure (Liu and Jensen, 2018), sustainable \r\nwater supply management through recycling of wastewater and storm \r\nwater runoff (Box 4.5) and NbS like sponge cities, are fundamentally \r\nabout water (Box 4.6)."


id: c8c191026efcd1c383455ec9d9340cb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"et al., 2016; Springmann et al., 2018; Kim et al., 2020), can reduce water \r\nuse (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 3f7b97d42bc62251980617fdfa3379aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"In summary, many adaptation and mitigation measures have synergistic \r\nor maladaptive consequences for water use, depending on associated \r\nincentives, policies, and governance that guide their deployment. \r\nMany mitigation measures have a considerable water footprint \r\n(high confidence), which must be managed in socially and politically \r\nacceptable ways to reduce the water intensity of mitigation while \r\nincreasing synergies with sustainable development (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)."


id: dcce9407edfa16ac0ea7b7212437ffc5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"Thus, water remains central to achieving SDGs and will play a fundamental \r\nrole in systems transitions needed for climate resilient development. We \r\noutline a set of seven enabling principles that are needed to achieving \r\nwater security and will also help in achieving SDGs and facilitate systems \r\ntransitions."


id: d4c62e7b918d3be5c304125f69d64150
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"AR5 concluded that successful adaptation across all sectors depends \r\non access to technology, and technology transfer can play an essential \r\nrole in building up adaptive capacity (Noble et  al., 2014). SR1.5 \r\ndiscussed the role of efficient irrigation technologies in adaptation (de \r\nConinck et al., 2018)."


id: 205dcb3c99900155a08a6a0f248fa506
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"Adoption of technologies depends on the availability of finance \r\n(Section 4.8.2). The effectiveness of technology in reducing climate-related \r\nrisks depends on its appropriateness to the local context (Biagini et al., \r\n2014; Mfitumukiza et al., 2020) and other factors, including institutional \r\nand governance frameworks (high confidence). Water technologies \r\ncan also have unintended outcomes, leading to maladaptation in "


id: 32ccb837a8942b64d71f5d65dc988199
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"(Phillips et al., 2020) and water and sanitation (Armitage and Nellums, \r\n2020b; Bhowmick et  al., 2020) are critical for building resilience \r\nagainst pandemics, and are also crucial elements of adaptation in \r\nwater. Therefore, integrated approaches that achieve both goals need \r\nto be deployed (Barbier and Burgess, 2020; Newell and Dale, 2020) \r\n(Box 4.4., Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7)."


id: 5ef696162d5e5b9ad17db32e525cc435
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"some cases. For example, efficient irrigation technologies like drip and \r\nsprinkler irrigation, while reducing water application rates per unit of \r\nland, can increase overall water extraction by increasing total land \r\nunder irrigation (van der Kooij et al., 2013; Grafton et al., 2018; Mpanga \r\nand Idowu, 2021). Water-related technologies can also have adverse \r\ndistributional outcomes when gains from technology adoption accrue \r\ndisproportionately to a small section of the population; for example, \r\nonly rich and male farmers can adopt high-cost technologies like solar \r\nirrigation pumps (Gupta, 2019) (medium confidence)."


id: f9221c0832a1167073b831545455f934
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, water garners a significant share of public and private \r\nadaptation funds (high confidence). However, current COVID-19-\r\nrelated cuts in adaptation financing may further impede developing \r\ncountries' ability to invest in adequate water adaptation."


id: 7eb0e848609a85fc45a9ad563ee28c53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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content:
"In summary, technology is an important part of water adaptation \r\nresponse, and outcomes of technology adoption are mediated through \r\nother societal factors, including institutions, governance frameworks \r\nand equity and justice issues (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 74a59f4df17b46890b1f7e09673049e2
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"SR1.5 acknowledged that the adaptive capacity of a population was \r\ngoing to reduce with each degree of warming and that vulnerability to \r\nclimate change was due to gender, race and level of education, which \r\ncan compound existing and future vulnerabilities (IPCC, 2018a)."


id: 48021b8672ed307a39135b7200eae80e
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"Although AR5 did not explicitly mention finance for water-related \r\nadaptation actions, it considered urban adaptation (Revi et al., 2014) \r\nand risk financing (Arent et al., 2014). SR1.5 (de Coninck et al., 2018) \r\ndiscussed governance and finance limitations, while SRCCL discussed \r\nfinance in adapting to floods and droughts (Hurlbert et al., 2019)."


id: 8fa2ed5028566cbd04b5afeaa7287b4f
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"Private financing remains a minor source of adaptation financing \r\n(World Bank, 2019). Around 39% of green bonds issued in 2017 \r\nwere for water, wastewater and solid waste management (World \r\nBank, 2017). In 2018, USD 100.5  billion of water-themed bonds \r\nwere issued, mainly in Europe (63%), the Asia Pacific (19.6%) and \r\nNorth America (14.9%) (Filkova et al., 2018; World Bank, 2019). Such \r\nfinancing focuses on returns and scale (Cholibois, 2020), and as such, \r\nlocal needs, especially those of the poor, may not be adequately \r\nrepresented (Manuamorn et  al., 2020; Williams, 2020) (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 5e06f9a980faf9268b2080d8cbeb8391
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content:
"COVID-19 will probably affect adaptation financing in water. Countries \r\nwill be fiscally stretched to finance public investments domestically \r\nand through international development aid (Barbier and Burgess, \r\n2020). However, investments in flood and drought management "


id: 1104bd2c05fa2018be39281cbc3ff5cc
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content:
"SROCC stated with medium confidence that IKLK provide context\u0002specific and socioculturally relevant understandings for effective climate \r\nchange responses and policies (Abram et al., 2019). SRCCL found that \r\nIKLK contribute to enhancing resilience against climate change and \r\ncombating desertification (medium confidence). The combination of IKLK \r\nwith new sustainable land management techniques, SRCCL stated with \r\nhigh confidence, can contribute to raising resilience to the challenges of \r\nclimate change and desertification (Mirzabaev et al., 2019)."


id: 63fdb6a53430afbb6b159c3f23615bcc
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content:
"There is high confidence that adaptation efforts benefit from the \r\ninclusion of IKLK (Mustonen et al., 2021). IKLK can inform how climate \r\nchange impacts and risks are understood and experienced. Holders of \r\nIKLK can also help to develop place-based and culturally appropriate \r\nadaptation strategies that meet their community's expectations \r\n(Comberti et  al., 2019; Martinez Moscoso, 2019) (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox INDIG in Chapter 18)."


id: af9c4364c59d5ca4c1edf5135db6f400
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
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"There is high confidence that genuine partnerships with Indigenous \r\nPeoples and local communities can assist in decolonising approaches \r\nto freshwater management (Arsenault et al., 2019; Wilson et al., 2019), \r\nwhich recognise the importance of knowledge that is not grounded \r\non the technocratic division between nature and society (Goldman \r\net al., 2018). There is also high confidence that Indigenous Peoples\u0002led freshwater management can facilitate culturally inclusive decision\u0002making and collaborative planning processes at the local and national \r\nlevels (Somerville, 2014; Harmsworth et al., 2016; Parsons et al., 2017). \r\nHowever, market-based models of water rights regimes can impede \r\nthe ability of Indigenous Peoples to exercise their rights and deploy \r\ntraditional ecological knowledge regarding freshwater protection \r\n(Nursey-Bray and Palmer, 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement)."


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"Meanwhile, adaptation interventions such as drip irrigation, the \r\nadoption of more labour-intensive crops and livelihood diversification \r\nthrough male out-migration have proven to increase women's burden \r\n(Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Kattumuri et al., 2017). Hence, a lack of \r\ngender-sensitive analysis before implementing water management \r\nprojects can lead to maladaptation and increase gender vulnerability \r\n(Phan et al., 2019; Eriksen et al., 2021) (high confidence)."


id: 8e25133942bb05dcfe0807f1187639ae
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"Acknowledging and understanding the implications of climate-related \r\nwater adaptation policies in terms of equity and justice is a prerequisite \r\nfor ensuring their legitimacy and inclusiveness and promotes social justice \r\n(Carr and Thompson, 2014; Djoudi et al., 2016; Jost et al., 2016; Sultana, \r\n2018). Furthermore, integrating the principle of gender inclusivity in \r\nadaptation is morally and ethically appropriate and effective because \r\nwomen hold much of the local and TK in many agricultural communities \r\nand can fruitfully provide insights on how to design and implement \r\nadaptation responses (Fauconnier et al., 2018; James, 2019)."


id: ab5b35442f195f90498fb3cee137734a
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"Community-led actions and restoration measures are helping to \r\nameliorate climate impacts and provide 'safe havens' to affected \r\nfreshwater species (high confidence). For example, the Skolt Sami \r\nof Finland have introduced adaptation measures to aid survival of \r\nculturally significant Atlantic salmon stocks in the Naatamo watershed. \r\nAtlantic salmon had declined as northern pike, which preys on juvenile \r\nsalmon, expanded its range in response to warmer water temperatures. \r\nIndigenous co-management measures included increasing the catch of \r\npike and documenting important sites (such as lost spawning beds) \r\nto ensure that ecological restoration encourages further habitat and \r\nincreased salmon reproduction (Pecl et  al., 2017; Mustonen and \r\nFeodoroff, 2018)."


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content:
"In summary, there is high confidence that the effects of climate \r\nchange-induced water insecurity are not evenly felt across populations. \r\nParticularly vulnerable groups are women, children, disabled and \r\nIndigenous Peoples whose ability to access adequate water is limited \r\nand varies across race, ethnicity and caste. Equity and justice are \r\ncentral to climate change adaptation and sustainable development, as \r\nthe world's poorest people and countries feel the adverse impacts of a \r\nchanging climate most acutely. These groups can become even more \r\nvulnerable due to adaptation actions that are not equitable."


id: 94d793dc9ef2b9b75f1566440f05fd39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20928
content:
"Community-led applications of IKLK in conjunction with external \r\nknowledge and funding can improve water security (high confidence). \r\nFor example, Borana pastoralists in Ethiopia (Iticha and Husen, 2019) \r\nand Ati and Suludnon people (Philippines) (Nelson et al., 2019) utilise \r\nboth IK and technical information for weather forecasting, while \r\nCalanguya people (Philippines) collaborated with local government \r\nand nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) to diversify crops and \r\nprotect the watershed (Gabriel and Mangahas, 2017). With assistance \r\nfrom municipalities, Indigenous Peoples are rehabilitating springs and \r\ntraditional water wells in Bangladesh hill tracts (Sultana et al., 2019) and \r\nMicronesia (McLeod et al., 2019). In response to changing cryospheric \r\nconditions in the Peruvian Andes, indigenous Quechua farmers use IK and \r\ntechnical information in community-led research to preserve biocultural "


id: 49e7b9310df1628f80c47302b22c0991
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9030
content:
"AR5 concluded that there is robust evidence that mutual integration \r\nand co-production of local, traditional and scientific knowledge increase \r\nadaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability (Adger and Pulhin, 2014). "


id: b2f8920373424e08787d3c60efc57b2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25674
content:
"river and lake basins are shared between countries (Timmerman et al., \r\n2017). Yet, more than 50% of the world's 310 international river basins \r\nlack any type of cooperative framework (McCracken and Meyer, 2018)."


id: c039ea8544c308a3101996bae89632b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27801
content:
"knowledge and emblematic crops (Sayre et al., 2017). In Galena, Alaska \r\n(USA), a flood-preparedness and response programme has benefitted \r\nfrom the long-term cooperation between emergency management \r\nand tribal officials (Kontar et  al., 2015) (12.5.3.2 Main concepts and \r\napproaches). IKLK can enhance the visibility of Indigenous Peoples \r\nand local communities that are excluded from official decision-making \r\nprocesses. In southwest Burkina Faso, for example, Indigenous Peoples \r\nare using IKLK to balance (and sometimes resist) official technical \r\nestimates of water availability, which enhances their political visibility \r\nand enables them to address water scarcity (Roncoli et al., 2019)."


id: 29be3854642cf770e2b861a4319591df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3999
content:
"There are structural and institutional challenges in knowledge co\u0002production between holders of IKLK and 'technical' knowledge. These \r\nchallenges include issues of water rights, language, extractive research \r\npractices (Ford et al., 2016; Simms et al., 2016; Stefanelli et al., 2017; \r\nArsenault et al., 2019) and colonial uses of IKLK (Castleden et al., 2017), \r\nwhich can produce distrust among holders of IKLK (David-Chavez and \r\nGavin, 2018). In addition, some IK is sacred and cannot be shared with \r\noutsiders (Sanderson et al., 2015)."


id: b23fd08cb1a3e432432fb1b4153eae7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 25550
content:
"In summary, IKLK are dynamic and have developed over time to \r\nadapt to climate and environmental change in culturally specific and \r\nplace-based ways (high confidence). Ethical co-production between \r\nholders of IKLK and technical knowledge is a key enabling condition \r\nfor successful adaptation measures and strategies pertaining to water \r\nsecurity, as well as other areas (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nKnowledge co-production is a vital and developing approach to the \r\nwater-related impacts of climate change that recognises the culture, \r\nagency and concerns of Indigenous Peoples and local communities. It \r\nis critical to developing effective, equitable and meaningful strategies \r\nfor addressing the water-related impacts of global warming (Cross\u0002Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18)."


id: d7157a204dbb32ab0d875b01cf0efe6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"SR1.5 concluded with high confidence that cooperation and coordinated \r\nactions at various governance levels are vital to ensuring participation, \r\ntransparency, capacity building and learning among different actors \r\n(IPCC, 2018a). According to SRCCL, adaptive governance builds on \r\nmulti-level and polycentric governance (Hurlbert et al., 2019), where \r\nefforts taken by multiple actors across different scales provide learning \r\nopportunities for all (Hurlbert, 2018)."


id: d5fec95bf490c12c43ea15bccffbf4a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 31184
content:
"Participation, cooperation and bottom-up engagement are critical \r\nto optimal adaptation (medium evidence, high agreement). There is \r\nhigh confidence that many of the countries and social groups most \r\nthreatened by climate change have contributed the least to global \r\nemissions and do not have not the resources to adapt. Effective \r\nparticipation of these actors in climate change adaptation planning in \r\nthe water sector can contribute to more just adaptation actions (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: 4878a436d0149c4018ae4c196e88d0af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Polycentrism is characterised by the absence of a unique centre of \r\nauthority. Therefore, the legitimacy of the decisions taken by multiple \r\ndecision-makers at different levels of water governance derives from \r\nthe perceived fairness of the decision-making process (Baldwin et al., \r\n2018) and the inclusion of women, Indigenous Peoples and young \r\npeople (Iza, 2019) (medium confidence). Evidence-based approaches \r\ncan also enhance the legitimacy of polycentric governance (Boelens \r\net  al., 2015; Arriagada et  al., 2018) by generating knowledge to \r\nsupport localised and multi-leveled decision-making, as in the case \r\nof water user communities in Peru (Buytaert et  al., 2014; Buytaert \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 38437f182c48631a618eec00994e9197
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"There is medium evidence and high agreement that optimal adaptation \r\ndepends critically on inter-state cooperation (Banda, 2018), which in \r\nturn requires trust and norms of reciprocity among all those involved \r\n(Ostrom, 2014). Reciprocity is central to international cooperation on \r\nclimate change, where actors are more inclined to cooperate when \r\nthey perceive that the expected outcome will be fair in terms of costs \r\nand benefits of implementation (Keohane and Oppenheimer, 2016). \r\nIndeed, cooperation at the international level is less probable to occur \r\nif participants do not trust each other (Hamilton and Lubell, 2018). \r\nIn climate-related water adaptation, transboundary cooperation is \r\nessential, as 60% of global freshwater resources contained in 276 "


id: 76641501e3a3920fdb847b94ad93141b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 16217
content:
"The advantages of polycentric approaches to climate governance \r\ninclude improved communication, inclusiveness, consensus and better \r\noutcomes (Ostrom, 2014; Cole, 2015; Keohane and Victor, 2016; \r\nMorrison et al., 2017; Tormos-Aponte and Garcia-Lopez, 2018) (high "


id: 9097fc7da343447ebe293c828241cd22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 20282
content:
"towards limiting global warming to 1.5degC (de Coninck et al., 2018).\r\nAs the IPCC SROCC (IPCC, 2019a) and SRCCL (Shukla et  al., 2019) \r\nsuggest, limited institutional support can challenge adaptation efforts \r\nin water management."


id: 3afe389231d5235d91e9c1d05f72753f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"agreement). However, polycentric governance systems require cross\u0002scale information sharing, coordination and democratic participation \r\nto work appropriately (Pahl-Wostl and Knieper, 2014; Carlisle and \r\nGruby, 2017; Morrison et al., 2017; Biesbroek and Lesnikowski, 2018; \r\nFrey et al., 2021) (high confidence). For example, efficient information \r\nsharing has been necessary to implement groundwater governance in \r\ntransboundary contexts (Albrecht et al., 2017)."


id: 254ebae779ed31d975d31e85a28a5d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3298
content:
"Climate adaptation planning approaches can be constrained by \r\nseveral economic, institutional, developmental and political barriers \r\n(Anguelovski et  al., 2014; Eisenack et  al., 2014), including strong \r\npolitical support, that is, the lack of collective willingness to take \r\naction. Despite the ongoing accumulation of scientific evidence as to \r\nthe seriousness of the impact of climate change on water resources, \r\nstate action has not always been effective. There are now a rising \r\nnumber of case laws addressing the state's failure to implement \r\nadaptation policies and resultant climate change litigation (Setzer \r\nand Vanhala, 2019; Peel and Osofsky, 2020), including in the water \r\nsector, as in the leading case Leghari v Federation of Pakistan (2015 \r\nWP. No. 25501/201), in which a farmer sued the national government \r\nfor failure to carry out national climate change policies impacting on \r\nthe constitutional right to life (Preston, 2016)."


id: e1798af43d1571d4899e806a3a4c4cdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 32967
content:
"Empirical studies that examined the potential of polycentric \r\ngovernance to address water challenges in the face of climate change \r\nshowed that polycentrism could encourage and support participatory, \r\ndecentralised and deliberative adaptation. These, in turn, can produce \r\nbetter environmental outcomes and improve water governance \r\noutcomes (high confidence). Polycentric water governance can be an \r\neffective enabler for adaptation when it ensures interconnectedness \r\nwith multiple public and private actors across the different sectors \r\n(e.g., irrigation users, domestic users, industrial users, watershed \r\ninstitutions, etc.) and across different levels (e.g., local, regional and \r\nnational governments) to help come up with well-coordinated water \r\nadaptation responses (high confidence) (Pahl-Wostl and Knieper, 2014; \r\nMcCord et al., 2017; Baldwin et al., 2018; Hamilton and Lubell, 2018; \r\nKellner et al., 2019)."


id: 8ba9eb09beccaedd23fc5f8de1228dde
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Evidence suggests that adaptation failure in the water sector is due \r\nto policy and regulatory failures (Keohane and Victor, 2016; Oberlack \r\nand Eisenack, 2018; Javeline et al., 2019), reflecting political myopia \r\n(Muller, 2018; Empinotti et al., 2019; Pralle, 2019) (high confidence)."


id: 6367ee702c56798b4ad332f8753e58a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 13211
content:
"In summary, polycentric governance can enable improved water \r\ngovernance and effective climate change adaptation (medium \r\nconfidence). However, it can also exacerbate existing inequalities as \r\nlong as less powerful actors, such as women, Indigenous Peoples and \r\nyoung people, are not adequately involved in the decision-making \r\nprocess (high confidence)."


id: 7d36d6b86e6bf0e417c8ae2d272dea39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"International donors and supranational/transnational legislation \r\n(e.g., EU law) can support the capacity of national and sub-national \r\ngovernments to act and remove possible barriers to the effective \r\nimplementation of climate change adaptation policies in the water \r\nsector, including obstacles posed due to lack of financial support \r\nfor the developing countries (Massey et al., 2014; Tilleard and Ford, \r\n2016; Biesbroek et  al., 2018; Rahman and Tosun, 2018) (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 9b58b86be960e7a1a09577617d96bd9d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"According to AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014), barriers to adaptation \r\nin the water sector include lack of institutional capacity, which, together \r\nwith political support, constitutes one of the feasibility dimensions "


id: 948776a054457e35f7761dce4ff88050
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Water is essential for all societal and ecosystems needs. Water security is multi-dimensional and not just about water availability. Water \r\nneeds to be available in sufficient quantity and quality and needs to be accessible in an acceptable form. Accordingly, a situation of water \r\nsecurity indicates the availability and accessibility of sufficient clean water to allow a population to sustainably ensure its livelihoods, health, \r\nsocioeconomic development and political stability. Many socioeconomic factors, such as population growth and food consumption patterns, \r\nplay an important role in determining water security. Still, climate change is increasingly shown to be an important contributor to water \r\ninsecurity worldwide, with some regions more at risk than others."


id: 5c35f062cd0db6b4cf035704a3a8dd01
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Climate change can affect these different dimensions of water security in different ways. Most directly, climate \r\nchange is affecting the overall availability of water across regions and during important seasons. More extended \r\nperiods of dry spells and droughts are already affecting water availability, especially in the arid areas of India, \r\nChina, the USA and Africa. Other extremes, such as heavy precipitation and flooding, can affect water quality, \r\nmaking water unsafe for drinking, for example. In coastal regions and small islands, the combined effects of higher \r\nsea levels and more intense storms affect water security by increasing the salinisation of groundwater resources. \r\nIndirect effects of climate change on water security include impacts on infrastructure for the provision and recovery \r\nof water resources, which can affect the safe access to adequate water resources, both in terms of quality and \r\nquantity."


id: 28516a6e98854680e6e37b3f0316f96c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"In terms of assessing the extent of water scarcity, studies estimate that currently, between 1.5 and 2.5  billion \r\npeople live within areas exposed to water scarcity globally. These numbers are projected to increase continuously, \r\nwith estimates of up to 3 billion at 2degC and up to 4 billion at 4degC by 2050. Many socioeconomic factors, such as \r\npopulation growth and food consumption patterns, determine water scarcity. Still, climate is increasingly shown to \r\nbe an important component that drives scarcity across the world. Water scarcity is often a seasonal occurrence, and \r\nclimate change is projected to increase seasonal extremes. Often, consecutive years with drier conditions lead to a \r\nlong-term decrease in groundwater tables, affecting water availability directly and soil moisture in the longer term."


id: f74a2c08c1220428ebb29dc039029808
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 36420
content:
"As an essential component of water security, climate change will affect water quality in different ways. Drier \r\nconditions lead to a reduction in water availability, causing a potential increase in the concentration of contaminants. \r\nIncreasing runoff and floods can wash pollutants into water bodies. With climate change projected to increase the \r\nvariability of rain over space and time, such impacts on water quality are becoming increasingly likely. Higher \r\ntemperatures add to deteriorating water quality by reducing oxygen levels."


id: af74ac6b578659a96fc65a8a8fbc4943
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25120
content:
"Another critical component to ensure secure access to water resources is adequate water infrastructure for access, \r\ndisposal and sanitation. Unfortunately, increasing extremes due to climate change, especially floods and increasing \r\nstorm activity, have great potential to damage such infrastructure, especially in developing world regions, where \r\ninfrastructure is much more susceptible to damage and pollution."


id: 3e84ca6e87747bbfbae026a0ffb5a8f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"There are substantial differences in the distribution of risks across regions, with some areas facing a much higher \r\nrisk burden than others. Also, projections of the potential impacts of climate change on water security vary across \r\nregions. However, patterns of projected water-related extremes are emerging more clearly globally with increasing \r\nconfidence."


id: be6a3acbf7d6e5ee04d1aa3474ae871
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27505
content:
"Due to climate change, substantial numbers of people are now living in climates with average precipitation levels significantly different to the \r\naverage over the 20th century. Nearly half a billion people are living in unfamiliar wet conditions, mostly in mid- and high latitudes, and over \r\n160 million people are living in unfamiliar dry conditions, mostly in the tropics and subtropics. In addition to changes in average precipitation, \r\nprecipitation patterns over time are also changing, as well as river flows. Societal impacts and increased risks from both wetter and drier \r\nconditions are starting to emerge."


id: 16dcfa6d85b9df11507e1e8bea0716cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Some parts of the world are becoming wetter, and some are becoming drier, in terms of either changes in precipitation \r\nand/or the water available in the soil, in rivers or underground. Soil moisture, river water and groundwater are \r\naffected by changes in precipitation and also by changes in evaporation, which is affected by temperature and by \r\nuptake by vegetation."


id: d51022977ec4b011e34802d3ff798e99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"All these factors are affected by climate change. Rising temperatures drive higher evaporation, which dries the \r\nlandscape, although this can be offset in some areas by reduced uptake of water from the soil by plants in response \r\nto rising CO2 concentrations. A warming climate brings more precipitation overall, although changes in global wind \r\npatterns mean that some areas are seeing less precipitation."


id: ac7747983d4a51fc6b4b32dae00d1ef3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"As a result, substantial numbers of people are now living in climates with average precipitation levels significantly \r\ndifferent to the average over the 20th century. Nearly half a billion people are living in unfamiliar wet conditions, \r\nmostly in mid- and high latitudes, and over 160  million in unfamiliar dry conditions, mostly in the tropics and \r\nsubtropics (Figure FAQ4.2.1)."


id: 95a914241c90f2445d4a2bbaad208a11
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"In addition to changes in average precipitation, the patterns over time are also changing, such as the length of \r\ndry spells and the amount of precipitation falling in heavy events. Again, these changes vary across the world due \r\nto shifting wind patterns. Approximately 600 million people live in places with longer dry spells than in the 1950s, \r\nmostly in West Africa, south Asia and parts of South America. Approximately 360 million people experience shorter \r\ndry spells, in North America, northern Asia and other parts of South America."


id: db70aa6663a7d0171aab5a9954d18fa8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"In contrast, far more people (about 600 million people) are seeing heavier precipitation than less heavy precipitation \r\n(80 million). A more widespread increase in heavy precipitation is expected in a warming world, where the warmer \r\natmosphere takes up more moisture and hotter ground drives more intense storms."


id: 1a8490c1c42400bcd1f20972e261c5bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"River flows are also changing in many parts of the world, often due to changes in precipitation, although direct \r\nhuman impacts are also important. Generally, the most widespread increased river flows are seen in high latitudes, \r\nwhile decreasing flows are seen in mid- and low latitudes, although there are major exceptions to these trends and \r\ndata is sparse in many regions (Figure FAQ4.2.2)."


id: 746657f2dbe676412edcd0a1e0d0e416
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Some of these changes are starting to have impacts on society. For example, increasing rainfall in the USA has \r\nled to increased crop yields. Heavy rainfall and long periods of rainfall lead to flooding, causing deaths, injuries, \r\ninfrastructural damage, spread of disease, disruptions to employment and education, psychological trauma and \r\nterritorial displacement. The weather conditions associated with many recent major flooding events were made \r\nmore likely by climate change, although non-climatic factors remain the dominant driver of increased flooding."


id: 1621f229877dbd5a3ebaa90be2b5cb03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1005
content:
"Drier soils have made heatwaves more severe. A drying of the landscape has increased the length of the fire season \r\nacross much of the world, contributing to unprecedented severity of wildfires in recent years. In recent years, \r\nseveral major drought events with impacts on agriculture were made more likely by climate change."


id: 274d015160eba9c08aea45e661cfad80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3584
content:
"Overall, the general picture is of increased average precipitation and/or longer periods of precipitation in the mid \r\nand high latitudes, but decreased precipitation and/or longer times between precipitation across much of the \r\ntropics and subtropics. Where heavy precipitation is changing, this is mostly towards increasing intensity. Societal \r\nimpacts and increased risks from both wetter and drier conditions are starting to emerge."


id: 8f4ba7c71d8c7139be08eefe93545e41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20092
content:
"Anthropogenic land use changes and climate change will exacerbate the intensity, frequency and spatial extent of \r\nfloods and droughts, leading to populations becoming more vulnerable. According to projections, these increases "


id: 2b896b39cbc96379b40b849237b1f6d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4288
content:
"in extreme events will be more significant with higher levels of global warming. However, the location and severity \r\nof floods and droughts are context-dependent and complex phenomena."


id: 124f35b400438f623fbc91dae606dfaf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 382
content:
"Finally, vulnerable groups such as people living in poverty, women, children, Indigenous Peoples, uninsured workers \r\nand the elderly will be the most affected by water-related disasters."


id: facd4dd6407bcb945de1fd59bb2c6cc3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 36980
content:
"FAQ 4.4 | Globally, agriculture is the largest user of water. How will climate change impact this sector, and how can \r\nfarmers adapt to these changes?"


id: 91a49374c182c7ba36d566fd1591afbc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 20456
content:
"Worldwide, and especially in developing countries, agriculture (including crop cultivation and livestock and fisheries) \r\nis the largest water user, accounting for 50-90% of all water use. Moreover, a substantial part of the water used in \r\nagriculture is 'consumptive' use, which means that the water is 'consumed' for crop growth and is not immediately \r\navailable for other uses. This is different from other sectors, such as energy production, where only a fraction of \r\nthe water is consumed, and other downstream users can reuse the rest. Agriculture also accounts for a large share \r\nof employment in developing countries, with 60-80% of the rural population dependent on agriculture for their \r\nlivelihoods. Agriculture provides food security for all. This makes farmers and agriculture particularly vulnerable to \r\nclimate change."


id: 79bb0a0eef1d93b284a6eba3c1bc3984
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 16720
content:
"Projected impacts on agriculture due to changes in water availability are also severe. For example, yields of rain-fed \r\ncrops such as maize are projected to decline by one fifth to one third by the end of the century. In contrast, many \r\nareas which currently support multiple crops may become unsuitable for rain-fed farming or support only one crop \r\nin a year. Irrigation, which is often one of the most effective adaptive strategies against water-induced stress, is also \r\nprojected to be affected by a reduction of the amount of water available for irrigation in some parts of the world \r\nthat are already water-stressed or as a result of groundwater depletion in places such as India, North China and the \r\nnorthwestern USA. Overall, future droughts and floods will pose a major risk to food security, and agriculture and \r\nimpacts will be more severe on countries and communities that are already food insecure."


id: 48323a348fca26e7f4c62f43e8b9b278
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8730
content:
"Given that farmers are already dealing with variability in the amount and timing of rainfall. In many places, demand \r\nfor agricultural water is greater than supply, and farmers are using many adaptations and coping strategies to meet \r\nwater demands for their crops, fish and livestock. Some of the most popular adaptation responses around crops and \r\nwater include:"


id: 9fd85ad9ae7ad4ff9efae17895c92e91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 22685
content:
"Most of these measures are beneficial across multiple indicators (water saving, increased incomes, etc.); however, whether \r\nthey also reduce climate-related risks is not well understood and remains a knowledge gap. Irrigation and changes in crop \r\nchoices and cultivars are also shown to be effective for future adaptation, especially at 1.5degC global warming, but much \r\nless effective at 2degC and 3degC when these responses will not mitigate a large part of the climate risk. Most of these "


id: b8931da002f5d08bd31110be2e0afb27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26566
content:
"adaptation measures mentioned above are autonomous. However, some, such as improved seeds and cultivars, are \r\nsupported by national agricultural research agencies, international research coalitions such as the CGIAR [Consultative \r\nGroup on International Agricultural Research], and private seed companies. In many parts of the world, farmers are also \r\nincreasingly using IKLK to inform these decisions of what to grow, when to grow and how much to irrigate."


id: 1aa4c1bb1058155c7914fa3210052573
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1668
content:
"Given the predominance of market economies worldwide, most farmers also depend on the market to sell their \r\nproduce, and market fluctuations affect their incomes. In addition, market-related volatility coupled with climate \r\nchange is a source of increased risk for farmers. Several economic and financial instruments are being used with \r\nvarying levels of success to offset some of these interlinked impacts. Index-based crop insurance is one such \r\ninstrument that compensates farmers for losing crops due to hazards such as floods and droughts. However, several \r\nlimitations in their implementation remain."


id: 3ec525a2ba4f36efd46e337916311f4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7258
content:
"In cases of severe droughts and floods, which have debilitating impacts on already poor and vulnerable populations, \r\nnational governments provide social safety programmes, such as food or cash-for-work programmes, which are \r\nshown to be successful in reducing risks for the most vulnerable people, even though there are often concerns \r\nwith targeting efficiency. Providing training and capacity building of farmers to adopt new farming practices and \r\ntechnologies to manage risk better are also known to be effective when the training is conceptualised, targeted and \r\nimplemented in consultation with farmers. Planned adaptation practices include managing weather and market \r\nrisks through insurance products, social safety nets for vulnerable populations, and providing the right mix of \r\ntraining and capacity building. These adaptation practices are generally implemented by civil society, governments \r\nand the private sector."


id: 8dc6d5d47f344c534b8f0e0a4f4238ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19831
content:
"FAQ 4.5 | Which principles can communities implement to sustainably adapt to the ways that climate change is \r\nimpacting their water security?"


id: 4a6be022d775865b7a8b25795bc795fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9111
content:
"For communities to sustainably adapt to climate impacts on water security, their participation, cooperation and bottom-up engagement are \r\ncritical in all stages of decision-making processes. In addition to enhancing the legitimacy of the decision-making process, the community's \r\ninvolvement can increase the equitability and effectiveness of the adaptation approach. As water insecurity disproportionately affects \r\nmarginalised social groups, their participation in water governance and implementation can help improve their water security. Combining \r\nand integrating local, indigenous and traditional ecological knowledge with Western understandings of climate change can enhance the \r\neffectiveness of adaptation measures and strategies while ensuring that the adaptation is equitable and just. Improving water security is \r\nfundamental to achieving many of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)."


id: 40c0a814e404e7efb0c6f655725f3424
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 7569
content:
"The participation of traditionally excluded groups such as women and marginalised communities and Indigenous \r\nPeoples and ethnic minorities contributes to more equitable and socially just adaptation actions. Water insecurity \r\ndisproportionately affects these marginalised groups, and their participation in water governance and \r\nimplementation can help alleviate this burden."


id: f8478c0aaf3bfa2f904765a4d9d7e78e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36579
content:
"Recognising the importance of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in improving water security is vital \r\nto ensuring that decisions and solutions align with the interests of Indigenous Peoples and local peoples and \r\nbenefit their communities culturally and economically. Furthermore, the effectiveness of adaptation measures and \r\nstrategies improves when Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and traditional ecological knowledge are \r\ncombined and integrated with technical understandings of climate change."


id: 625931a8c832186f9c0e07fdb2d6ddcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13033
content:
"The climate adaptation plans led by national governments and local authorities will only be accepted and adequately \r\nimplemented when supported by the community. Therefore, strong political and societal support is necessary to \r\nensure effective policy changes, whether local or national. Significantly, access to financial assistance from private \r\nand public sources expands the range of strategies that communities can consider for enhancing their water security."


id: 70ae7a3cf8fa914a1472e17c31e8868
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15349
content:
"These principles are also conducive to the achievement of the United Nations SDGs. Actions that reduce climate risk \r\nand enhance water security can positively interact with sustainable development objectives (synergies). Therefore, \r\nimproving water security is fundamental to achieving many of the 17 SDGs."


id: 3751b4f1d8280ca44a451aa56e6230a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6087
content:
"Bezner Kerr, R., T. Hasegawa, R. Lasco, I. Bhatt, D. Deryng, A. Farrell, H. Gurney-Smith, H. Ju, S. Lluch-Cota, F. Meza, \r\nG. Nelson, H. Neufeldt, and P. Thornton, 2022: Food, Fibre, and Other Ecosystem Products. In: Climate Change 2022: \r\nImpacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 713-906, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.007."


id: 8c453c1d9d6c74574d843dd5de141655
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19576
content:
"(medium confidence). { 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2,5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.12.1, \r\n5.14.2, 5.14.6, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter; WGI \r\nAR6 Sections 11.2-11.8}"


id: f6b774b8f63902616425ca0850072f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36330
content:
"Climate change impacts everybody, but vulnerable groups, \r\nsuch as women, children, low-income households, Indigenous \r\nor other minority groups and small-scale producers, are often \r\nat higher risk of malnutrition, livelihood loss, rising costs \r\nand competition over resources (high confidence). Increasing \r\ncompetition for land, energy and water exacerbates impacts of climate \r\nchange on food security (high confidence). {5.4.2.2, 5.5.2.6; 5.8.2.2, \r\n5.9.2.1, 5.12.2, 5.12.3.1; 5.12.3.2; 5.12.3.3; 5.13.1, 5.13.3, 5.13.4}"


id: 84b8da4219523be45ca85a760097ae9f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18406
content:
"Climate change will make some current food production areas \r\nunsuitable (high confidence). Current global crop and livestock \r\nareas will increasingly become climatically unsuitable under a high\u0002emission scenario (high confidence) (e.g., 10% by 2050, over 30% \r\nby 2100 under SSP-8.5 versus below 8% by 2100 under SSP1-2.6). \r\nIncreased, potentially concurrent climate extremes will periodically \r\nincrease simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions \r\n(medium confidence). {5.2.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox MOVING PLATE in this chapter, Section 5.12.4; WGI Section 11.8}"


id: ce46beac6a2eed2d9f8b8c62e2dae80c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29974
content:
"Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability \r\nand timing of key biological events, such as flowering and \r\ninsect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability\r\n(high confidence). It is very likely2\r\n that climate change is altering \r\nthe distribution of cultivated, wild terrestrial, marine and freshwater \r\nspecies.  At higher latitudes, warming has expanded potential area \r\nbut has also altered phenology (high confidence), potentially causing \r\nplant-pollinator and pest mismatches (medium confidence). At low \r\nlatitude, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more \r\nfrequently leading to heat stress (high confidence). {5.4.1, 5.7.4, 5.8.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter , 5.12.3.4}"


id: c942ea0ff78e31a89e1fea8adc3ef2e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29225
content:
"Impacts on food availability and nutritional quality will increase \r\nthe number of people at risk of hunger, malnutrition and diet\u0002related mortality (high confidence). Climate change will increase \r\nthe number of people at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in \r\nSub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America (high confidence) \r\n(e.g., between 8 million under SSP1-6.0 and 80 million people under \r\nSSP3-6.0). Increased CO2 concentrations will reduce nutrient density of \r\nsome crops (high confidence). Climate change will increase loss of years \r\nof full health3\r\n by 10% in 2050 under Representative Concentration \r\nPathway (RCP) 8.5 because of undernutrition and micronutrient \r\ndeficiencies (medium evidence, high agreement). {5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.4.3, \r\n5.12.1.2, 5.12.4; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}"


id: 85cdeb097664c29c30ef80033fe2da57
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18594
content:
"Climate change will increasingly expose outdoor workers and \r\nanimals to heat stress, reducing labour capacity, animal health, \r\nand dairy and meat production (high confidence). The number of \r\ndays with climatically stressful conditions for outdoor workers will \r\nincrease by up to 250 workdays per year by century's end in some parts \r\nof South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and \r\nSouth America under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, with \r\nnegative consequences such as reduced food productivity, higher costs \r\nand prices (medium confidence). From early- to end-century, cattle, \r\nsheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72-136 \r\nadditional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity "


id: d398d019f68458757f6ff537dc087eab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30817
content:
"plant and animal-based pathogens, and harmful algal blooms (HABs) \r\n(high confidence).  More frequent  and intense  flood events and in\u0002creased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination (high \r\nconfidence). Incidence and severity of HABs and water-borne diseases \r\nwill increase, as will indirect effects from infrastructure damage during \r\nextreme events (high confidence). {5.4.3, 5.5.2.3, 5.8.1, 5.8.2, 5.8.3, \r\n5.9.1, 5.11.1, 5.11.3, 5.12.3; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2}"


id: 6d91bbd7c173e522407595d1f2d08020
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14848
content:
"under SSP5-8.5. Meat and milk productivity will be reduced (medium \r\nconfidence). {5.5.3.4; 5.12.4}"


id: 209ef1622ca2d0bd8b4141543cbe0f0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2577
content:
"Climate change will further increase pressures on terrestrial \r\necosystem services supporting global food systems (high\r\nconfidence). Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator \r\nagents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of \r\npollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions \r\n(high confidence). Greenhouse-gas emissions will negatively impact air, \r\nsoil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields \r\n(high confidence). {5.4.3, Box 5.3, Box 5.4, 5.5.3.4; 5.7.1, 5.7.4, 5.10.3}"


id: 7900b654e924a4decce059039d153e27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16591
content:
"Many autonomous adaptation options have been implemented \r\nin both terrestrial and aquatic systems, but on-farm adaptations \r\nare insufficient to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 \r\n(high confidence). Autonomous responses include livestock and farm \r\nmanagement, switching varieties/species and altered timing of key \r\nfarm activities such as planting or stocking (high confidence). However, \r\nbecause of limited adaptive capacities and non-climatic compounding \r\ndrivers of food insecurity, SDG2 will not be met (high confidence). \r\n{Table 5.1, 5.4.4; 5.5.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4; 5.12.4}"


id: 8617c79f93ba57141b7db29fbafbfbba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18637
content:
"Various adaptation options are currently feasible and effective \r\nat reducing climate impacts in different socio-cultural, economic \r\nand geographical contexts (high confidence), but some lack \r\nadequate economic or institutional feasibility or information on \r\nlimits (medium confidence). Feasible and effective options include \r\ncultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural \r\ndiversification, climate services, adaptive eco-management in fisheries \r\nand aquaculture. There is limited evidence, medium agreement on the \r\ninstitutional feasibility or cost effectiveness of adaptation activities, \r\nand the limits to such adaptations. {5.4.4, 5.5.4, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, \r\n5.10.4, 5.11.4, 5.12.4, 5.14.1}"


id: 940b22afb9db401453b9ecbe110e1806
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20800
content:
"Ecosystem-based approaches such as diversification, land \r\nrestoration, agroecology and agroforestry have the potential \r\nto strengthen resilience to climate change with multiple co\u0002benefits, but trade-offs and benefits vary with socio-ecological \r\ncontext (high confidence). Ecosystem-based approaches support \r\nlong-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, \r\nsoil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes (high \r\nconfidence), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, \r\necosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support \r\n(medium confidence). {5.4.4.4, 5.6.3, 5.10.4, 5.14.1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox NATURAL in Chapter 2; Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY \r\nthis chapter}"


id: e3a04c99ebaf05f99dc86103aace615c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33290
content:
"The occurrence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, \r\nincluding zoonoses, in agricultural, forest and food systems \r\n(terrestrial and aquatic) will be altered, and their control will \r\nbecome costlier  (medium confidence). Changes in the rates of \r\nreproduction and distribution of weeds, insect pests, pathogens and \r\ndisease vectors will increase biotic stress on crops, forests and livestock, \r\nand will increase the risk of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement). Risks will increase for climate\u0002driven emerging zoonoses (medium evidence, high agreement). {5.4.1.3, \r\n5.9.4, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}"


id: 9e03b401cbeae8afcfe7887b9c59819d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22387
content:
"Forest production systems will have variable responses to \r\nclimate change across regions, with negative effects being more \r\npredominant in tropical forests (high confidence). In temperate and \r\nboreal regions, some productivity gains are projected, but tree mortality \r\nwill increase in some areas (high confidence). In tropical forests, change \r\nin species composition and forest structure will lower production \r\n(medium confidence). Some models project a possible increase in global \r\nwood supply and lowering of average wood prices, but they do not \r\naccount for the negative impacts of extreme events and thus possibly \r\noverestimate the wood supply (medium confidence). {5.6.2}"


id: 18fb09873572b582630eb28acdd19a51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1429
content:
"Bio-based products as part of a circular bioeconomy have potential \r\nto support adaptation and mitigation, with sectoral integration, \r\ntransparent governance and stakeholder involvement key to \r\nmaximising benefits and managing trade-offs (high confidence). \r\nA sustainable bioeconomy relying on bioresources will need to be \r\nsupported by technology innovation and international cooperation \r\nand governance of global trade to disincentivise environmental and \r\nsocial externalities (medium confidence). {Cross-Working Group \r\nBox BIOECONOMY this chapter}"


id: f5328123e2b9f0f359f5caebfe68eb62
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36091
content:
"Climate change will negatively impact food safety (high con\u0002fidence). Higher temperatures and humidity will favour toxigenic fungi, "


id: 8e6e8fe318c3a6e424ba5fa3b44f60f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19930
content:
"different scales and use inclusive rights-based approaches help avoid \r\nmaladaptation (medium confidence). Successful forest adaptation \r\ninvolves recognition of land rights and cooperation with Indigenous \r\nPeoples and other local communities who depend on forest resources \r\n(high confidence). {5.6.3; 5.12.3, 5.13.1; 5.13.2; 5.14.2.1}"


id: 2ec98978f487480145aa1d84076407fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4799
content:
"an effective adaptation option to reduce food and nutritional \r\nrisk, conflict and loss of livelihood (medium confidence). Adaptive \r\ntransboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood \r\ndiversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing \r\nwill reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably \r\nharvested wild products and revenues (medium confidence). Other \r\noptions include shared quotas and access rights considering trade-offs, \r\nshifting livelihoods to follow target species, new markets for emerging \r\nspecies, and technology {Cross Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, \r\n5.8.4, 5.14.3.4}"


id: 944d22cf147ae2b601036bf630288838
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20843
content:
"Financial barriers limit implementation of adaptation options in \r\nagriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry, and vastly more \r\npublic and private investment is required (high confidence). \r\nPublic-sector investment in adaptation of agriculture, forestry and \r\nfisheries has grown four-fold since 2010, but adaptation costs will be \r\nmuch higher to meet future adaptation needs (medium confidence). \r\nExpanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks will \r\nenable and incentivise climate change adaptation (medium confidence). \r\n{5.14.3, 5.14.5., Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17}"


id: dd5cc5300b15707fb0c6d9e5e1b0ac2d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32321
content:
"Implemented adaptation in crop production will be insufficient to \r\noffset the negative effects of climate change (high confidence). \r\nCurrently available management options have the potential to \r\ncompensate global crop production losses due to climate change up \r\nto ~2degC warming, but the negative impacts even with adaptation \r\nwill grow substantially from the mid-century under high temperature \r\nchange scenarios (high confidence). Regionally, the negative effects \r\nwill prevail sooner where current temperatures are already higher as \r\nin lower latitudes (high confidence). {5.2.2, 5.4.3, 5.4.4, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, \r\n5.14.2.4}"


id: a49fb44a19459927788a468354bc5ef6
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content:
"Climate resilient development pathways offer a way forward to \r\nguide climate action in food system transitions, but operationa\u0002lisation is hampered by limited indicators and analyses (medium \r\nconfidence). Robust analyses are needed that detail plausible path\u0002ways to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food \r\nsystems in ways that are socially, economically and environmentally \r\nacceptable through time (high confidence). Appropriate monitoring and \r\nrapid feedback to food system actors will be critical to the success of \r\nmany current and future adaptation actions (high confidence). {5.14.4}"


id: e2cedf8e4ee621f9c43d10abf0a95071
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Supportive public policies will enhance effectiveness and/or \r\nfeasibility of adaptation in ecosystem provisioning services \r\n(medium confidence). Policies that support system transitions \r\ninclude shifting subsidies, removing perverse incentives, regulation \r\nand certification, green public procurement, investment in sustainable \r\nvalue chains, support for capacity-building, access to insurance \r\npremiums, payments for ecosystem services, and social protection, \r\namong others (medium confidence). {5.4.4.3; 5.4.4.4; 5.10.4.4; \r\n5.12.6; 5.13.4; 5.14.1.3; 5.14.2.4; Box  5.13, Cross-Working Group \r\nBox BIOECONOMY in Chapter 2}"


id: 6ab2b06b541aeb140420aece41f2f0da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Harnessing youth innovation and vision alongside other SDGs \r\nsuch as gender equity, Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, \r\nand urban and rural livelihoods, will support effective climate \r\nchange adaptation to ensure resilient economies in food \r\nsystems (high confidence). Adaptation strategies that address \r\npower inequities lead to co-benefits in equity outcomes and resilience \r\nfor vulnerable groups (medium confidence). Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local knowledge facilitate adaptation strategies for ecosystem \r\nprovisioning, especially when combined with scientific knowledge using \r\nparticipatory and community-based approaches (high confidence). \r\n{5.4.4.3, Table 5.6, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.2, 5.9.4.1, 5.9.5, 5.10.2.2, 5.12.7, \r\n5.12.8, 5.13.4, 5.13.5, 5.14.1.1, 5.14.1.2, 5.14.1.4,5.14.2.1, Box 5.13, \r\n5.14.2.2 }"


id: 94858c57416ada0c842c321c40029899
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 20880
content:
"Policy decisions related to climate change adaptation and \r\nmitigation that ignore or worsen risks of adverse effects \r\nfor different groups and ecosystems increase vulnerability, \r\nnegatively affect capacity to deal with climate impacts, and \r\nimpede sustainable development (medium confidence with \r\nrobust evidence, medium agreement). Lacking sufficient stakeholder \r\nparticipation, large-scale land acquisitions have had mostly negative \r\nimplications for vulnerable groups and climate change adaptation (high \r\nconfidence). Policy and programme appraisal of adaptation options \r\nthat consider the risks of adverse effects across different groups at "


id: 43198b4b55bedac9e518d8970b9d43b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 7954
content:
"to increased deforestation, biodiversity reduction and loss of wetlands. \r\nWith high certainty, limiting global warming would lower future \r\nrisks related to land, such as water scarcity, fire, vegetation shifts, \r\ndegradation, desertification and food insecurity and malnutrition, \r\nparticularly for those most vulnerable today: small-scale food \r\nproducers in low-income countries, Indigenous communities, women, \r\nand the urban poor. SRCCL assessed a range of adaptation pathways \r\nto increase food resilience."


id: 16addc29aa290542463ac2026ad0f3bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"This chapter assesses the scientific literature produced after the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment \r\nReport (AR5) dealing with past, current and future climate change \r\neffects on managed ecosystems that provide provisioning and cultural \r\nservices. It spans low- and high-intensity production systems for food, \r\nfeed, fibre and other ecosystem products."


id: 1dce95e21b985b5a3d571bac0e487d41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Climate change has already had global impacts, including in high\u0002income countries. Special emphasis is placed on the assessment of \r\nvulnerabilities of particular groups that are context- and location\u0002specific, such as Indigenous Peoples and other minorities, women and \r\nsmall-scale food producers. The report builds on the IPCC AR5 and \r\nrecent Special Reports. This chapter combines food systems, fibre, wood \r\nand other products from ecosystems previously detailed in separate \r\nchapters of AR5, with an increased focus on ecosystem services, \r\nincluding the long-term sustainability of the global food system \r\n(Figure 5.1). The chapter focuses on key climate risks, implementation \r\nand outcomes of adaptation solutions for different groups as well as \r\nlimits to adaptation."


id: f2398cc1ed740c8c07763d31ec549263
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content:
"AR5 Chapter 7 (Porter et  al., 2014) reported with high confidence\r\nthat food production systems were being negatively impacted by \r\nclimate change, including both terrestrial and aquatic food species \r\n(Porter et al., 2014). Increased temperatures will have large negative \r\nimpacts on the food production system under 2degC warming by late \r\n20th century, with temperatures exceeding 4degC posing even greater \r\nrisk to global food security (Porter et al., 2014). Adaptation options are \r\nneeded to reduce the risk from climate change, but there was limited \r\ninformation of their effectiveness."


id: 2fedaaff2d590128167a53fbd787d627
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"The 1.5degC Special Report concluded that climate-related risks to food \r\nsecurity will rise under 1.5degC and will increase further under 2degC \r\nor higher. Above 1.5degC, currently available adaptation options will \r\nbe much less effective and site-specific limits to adaptation will be \r\nreached for vulnerable regions and sectors. There was high confidence\r\nthat limiting warming to 1.5degC will result in smaller net reductions in \r\nyields of major crops affecting food availability and nutrition, and that \r\nrising temperatures will adversely affect livestock via changes in feed \r\nquality, fertility, production, spread of diseases and water availability."


id: ec89332d096438e4c694006540861bdd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 34693
content:
"Climate change directly affects food systems, and the impacts on \r\nterrestrial or aquatic food production will become increasingly negative, \r\nalthough regionally some changes may be beneficial in the near future \r\n(Porter et al., 2014). Current food system trajectories are leading to \r\nbiodiversity loss and land and aquatic ecosystem degradation without \r\ndelivering food security, nutrition, and sustainable and healthy \r\nlivelihoods to many (Steffen et al., 2015). Addressing climate change \r\nin isolation ignores these interconnections, which is why the chapter \r\nconsiders integrated adaptation solutions to allow humanity to thrive \r\nin the long term. At the same time, social foundations of equality, \r\njustice and political participation are crucial in order to move towards \r\na safe operating space for humanity (Raworth, 2017). The SDGs "


id: e1b08be58f2e5fad59de2bc3788dcd05
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content:
"The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) expanded \r\nbeyond the 1.5degC report to provide more in-depth information on \r\nclimate change interactions with food security, desertification and \r\ndegradation. There was high confidence that climate risks, both for \r\nslow changes and extreme events, are interlinked with ecosystem \r\nservices, health and food security, often cascading and potentially \r\nreinforcing effects. Climate change already affects all dimensions of \r\nfood security, namely availability, access, utilisation and stability, by \r\ndisrupting food production, quality, storage, transport and retail. These \r\neffects exacerbate competition for land and water resources, leading "


id: d16794f1fa18a3f397706259fabf4f9a
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content:
"provide the most comprehensive set of metrics of humanity's progress \r\nin achieving equitable and thriving socio-ecological systems. Therefore, \r\nwhile the focus of this chapter is climate change impacts, vulnerability \r\nand adaptation of food systems, feed, fibre and other ecosystem \r\nproducts, other environmental and social challenges are considered \r\nconcomitantly."


id: 2a276a68f648666205d08fd78b1ecd69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"supporting, provisioning, cultural) to the food system. Food security \r\nand nutrition strongly depend on the driving forces connecting food \r\nand natural systems while at the same time positively or negatively \r\ninfluencing them. Climate change frequently exacerbates the effects of \r\nother drivers of change, further limiting the environment within which \r\nhumanity can safely operate and thrive. The chapter assesses how \r\nclimate change affects the four pillars of food security and nutrition \r\nand how these effects can be mediated by various factors, including our \r\nadaptation responses, social equity, underlying ecosystem services and \r\ngovernance (Figure 5.1). Adaptation solutions are a major emphasis \r\nof this chapter, including many ecosystem-based adaptation options \r\n(Table  5.1), which fall under the broader umbrella of nature-based \r\nsolutions (Seddon et al., 2020)."


id: 678e604ca5cae4fff25f1b5296f6686c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Food system and natural systems interact via political, economic, \r\nsocial, cultural and demographic factors in complex ways, leading \r\nto food security and sustainability outcomes. The food system has a \r\nsupply (production) and demand (consumption) side, connected via \r\nprocessing, trade and retail, with loss and waste streams all along the \r\nfood chain. Natural ecosystems provide multiple services (regulating, "


id: 7a7c7558b2259330fc7827d093b39a6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Table 5.1 |  Adaptation strategies assessment in food, fibre and other ecosystem provisioning services."


id: dd0eab1590d35931e5569b316e6a245
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"and regional economies, building on Indigenous and local knowledge, \r\nand addressing social inequity, through inclusive, participatory and \r\ndemocratic governance of food systems (HLPE, 2019; Wezel et al., 2020)."


id: ac27a47006f038ef4b50f6cc1d56b441
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation, defined as the 'use of ecosystem \r\nmanagement activities to increase the resilience and reduce the \r\nvulnerability of people and ecosystems to climate change' (Campbell \r\net al., 2009), has at its core the recognition that there are unexploited \r\nsynergies in agricultural systems that can increase productivity and \r\nresilience. These can result from increasing biodiversity, adding organic \r\nmatter to soils, integrating livestock and aquatic species, including \r\naquaculture, into farming practices, broadening landscape practices to \r\nexploit crop-forestry synergies, supporting beneficial insect populations \r\nand altering pest management practices that have unintended negative \r\nconsequences. In addition, the chapter considers socioeconomic \r\nstrategies to build resilience in the food system, strengthening local "


id: bca448681a8bad7ce3cc3fff9d20cdc8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 27255
content:
"Detection and attribution of climate change impacts on the food system \r\nremain challenging because many non-climate drivers are involved \r\n(Porter et  al., 2014) but have been improved by recently developed "


id: d4b6efc513b70ce675fd686ec20991bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 30991
content:
"climate model outputs tailored for impact attribution (Iizumi et  al., \r\n2018; Moore, 2020; Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021)."


id: 1fd48c859ce86d1aab583c13b2c97008
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 2443
content:
"Methane emissions significantly impact crop yields by increasing \r\ntemperatures as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and surface ozone \r\nconcentrations as a precursor (medium confidence) (Shindell, 2016; \r\nVan Dingenen, 2018; Shindell et al., 2019). Shindell (2016) estimated a \r\nnet yield loss of 9.5+-3.0% for four major crops due to anthropogenic \r\nemissions (1850-2010), after incorporation of the positive effect of \r\nCO2 (6.5+-1.0%) and the negative effects of warming (10.9+-3.2%) and \r\ntropospheric ozone elevation (5.0+-1.5%). Although these estimates \r\nwere not linked with historical yield changes, more than half of the \r\nestimated yield loss is attributable to increasing temperature and \r\nozone concentrations from methane emissions, suggesting the \r\nimportance of methane mitigation in alleviating yield losses (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section 5.4.1.4)."


id: 30632122540db5af87752b26978bf8ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5042
content:
"Climate change is already affecting livestock production (high \r\nconfidence) (Section 5.5.1). The effects include direct impacts of heat \r\nstress on mortality and productivity, and indirect impacts have been \r\nobserved on grassland quality, shifts in species distribution and range \r\nchanges in livestock diseases (Sections 5.5.1.1-5.5.1.3). Quantitative \r\nassessment of observed impacts is still limited."


id: 1ef0860988518eb59684890be48eb5fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"In aquatic systems, more evidence has accumulated since AR5 on \r\nwarming-induced shifts (mainly poleward) of species (high confidence) \r\n(Section  5.8.1, Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE this chapter), \r\ncausing significant challenges for resource allocation between \r\ndifferent countries and fishing fleets. Quantitative assessments of \r\nclimate change impacts on production are still limited, but Free et al. \r\n(2019) estimated a 4.1% global loss of the maximum sustainable yield \r\nof several marine fish populations from 1930 to 2010 due to climate \r\nchange. The effects of climate change on aquaculture are apparent \r\nbut diverse, depending on the types and species of aquaculture (high \r\nconfidence) (Section  5.9.1). Temperature increases, acidification, salt \r\nintrusion, oxygen deficiency, floods and droughts have negatively "


id: 47978adfd17557787fc94227d5c00483
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Micronutrient deficiency is prevalent across many regions and will \r\ncontinue to be a problem at least during the first half of the century \r\n(Nelson et al., 2018), with significant implications for human health \r\n(Section 5.12.4)."


id: 2b3e5fea95fb8448c09033c7c0cc30a8
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"Key risks in this chapter are grouped into those related to food \r\nsecurity, food safety and dietary health, livelihoods of people in \r\nrelated sectors and ecosystem services (Table  16.9). Determining \r\nwhen a risk is considered severe is challenging to quantify because \r\nof the complexity of the food system, uncertainty about the effects \r\nand ethical challenges."


id: 9e7bf3bfd01d2710fca611d36bb51624
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"Food security and healthy balanced diets will also be undermined \r\nby reduced livelihoods and health of people in agriculture and food\u0002related sectors (Sections  5.12.3, 5.12.4), diminished ecosystem \r\nservices provided by pollinators, the soil biome (Section  5.4.3) and \r\nwater systems, and climate-mitigation related policies that solely focus \r\non reducing GHG emissions without considering their potential to \r\nincrease competition with food production for scarce land and water \r\n(Section 5.13.3)."


id: e525667b9cf6209252801ff0fc2530a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Current levels of food insecurity are already high in some parts of \r\nthe world, and often exacerbated by short-term food shortages and \r\nprice spikes caused by weather extremes partly linked to climate \r\nchange (Sections 5.2.1, 5.12.3, 16.5.2). Climate change will increase \r\nmalnourished populations through direct impacts on food production \r\nand have cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, \r\nall of which will reduce access to safe and nutritious food (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 5.2, 5.12)."


id: 6df1c5906ec36f0a4ebb102e17ec4b59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Chapter text draws on previous IPCC reports, other reports (i.e., High \r\nLevel Panel of Experts (HLPE), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), \r\nand Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and \r\nEcosystem Services (IPBES)), and literature published since 2014. This \r\nsection highlights key trends in research topics and methods since AR5."


id: a10fc6796cf1fd1864f7083e081ebc26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Since AR5, there are more examples of observed impacts from past \r\nclimate change in cropping systems (Section 5.4.1), pastoral systems \r\n(Section  5.5.1), forests (Section  5.6.1), fisheries (Section  5.8.1) and \r\nmixed farming systems (Section 5.10.1). These assessments of observed \r\nimpacts make use of historical data on climate, production area and \r\nyield to attribute the role of climate in driving changes in suitability, \r\nproduction, yield, food quality or total factor productivity (Ortiz-Bobea \r\net al., 2021). Observations across the global food systems have been \r\nanalysed (Cottrell et al., 2019), with the advantage that unexpected \r\nimpacts due to changes in seasonality and biotic interactions can be \r\ndetected. Quantitative analysis is only possible in places with adequate \r\nhistorical data; in many cases, studies rely on qualitative assessments, \r\noften drawing on farmers' perceptions of climate impacts."


id: a47d25d7166357538006c860d27dff74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Climate change impacts will increase the number of people at risk of \r\nhunger, in 2050 ranging from 8 million people under SSP1 to 80 million \r\npeople under SSP3 scenarios (RCP6.0), compared with a world with no \r\nclimate change (Mbow et al., 2019). Estimates also vary depending on \r\nthe adaptation and mitigation assumptions (Hasegawa et  al., 2018; \r\nJanssens et al., 2020). Geographically, nearly 80% of the population at \r\nrisk of hunger are projected to reside in Africa and Asia (Nelson et al., \r\n2018). Projections of risk of hunger beyond 2050 are limited, but it will \r\ngrow from the mid-century towards the end of the century, with more \r\npeople at risk under RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5 (Richardson et al., \r\n2018). Regional disparity is projected to increase, particularly under a \r\nhigh-emission scenario."


id: 1600de0a1e5cab4a0b6ea0a6ec380cb3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 986
content:
"Climate change will increase the costs and management challenges \r\nof providing safe food. The safety challenges arise from contamination \r\ncaused by increased prevalence of pathogens, HAB and toxic inorganic \r\nbioaccumulation (high confidence) (Sections  5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12). "


id: 430cdf40a71dce710153d66cc79a028d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Table 5.2 |  A comparison of modelling approaches and their application in climate change impact projections. Model types are categorised by: food system, with labels representing \r\nthe food systems from this chapter where each model type is used ({CROP}, {TREE}, {LIVES}, {FISH}, {MIX}, {FOOD}); scale over which each model type is usually applied \r\nlocal [()], regional [( )], global [( )], or a combination of these); and sensitivity to climate change where the colour intensity indicates the ability of each model type to incorporate \r\neach of the listed factors. After Van Wijk et al. (2014), Kanter et al. (2018) and Thornton (2018). Integrated assessment models are discussed in the main text."


id: dbf335d370d5c886d14533b1620516a1
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vector_id: 32124
content:
"et  al., 2014; Haworth et  al., 2016), but generally the conclusions \r\nfollow known plant responses (Lemonnier and Ainsworth, 2018). As \r\nhighlighted in AR5, there is a scarcity of FACE infrastructure in the \r\ntropics and subtropics (Leakey et al., 2012; Lemonnier and Ainsworth, \r\n2018; Toreti et al., 2020). One area that has been investigated further \r\nis the negative impact of elevated CO2 on crop nutritional value, \r\nwhich has important implications for human nutrition (Scheelbeek \r\net al., 2018; Smith and Myers, 2018; Toreti et al., 2020; Ainsworth and \r\nLong, 2021). Increasingly, experimental studies seek to examine the "


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content:
"interaction between climatic factors such as temperature, drought and \r\nozone, or the responses of understudied food systems, crop species, \r\ncultivars and management interventions (Kimball, 2016; Ainsworth \r\nand Long, 2021). The use of experimental data to improve projections \r\nhas also expanded in other systems. There has been an increased \r\nfocus on the impact of warming on livestock health and productivity \r\n(5.5.3). Aquatic system studies have incorporated projected impacts \r\non physiology, distribution, phenology and productivity (5.8.3)."


id: 4f45b4f593bfc919a7492b8a66bd8600
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content:
"In addition to productivity projections, research also draws on climate \r\nsuitability estimates (Table  5.2). These compare the known climate \r\nsuitability of species and habitats with projected climate conditions \r\nacross different locations. Such projections are useful especially for \r\nincorporating movement of pests and pathogens but cannot be applied \r\nin isolation if non-climate constraints are not considered. As different \r\nresearch groups use different assumptions and data inputs, more \r\ncoordination is needed if suitability projections are to be compared \r\nglobally (SM5.3)."


id: a58880c44c7331b7b545117e617667f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 23615
content:
"Methods for monitoring vulnerability and adaptation are under\u0002researched but have increased since AR5. Increasingly, projections \r\nmove from individual crops to assessing risks across the food systems \r\nand the relative vulnerability of different systems (Campbell et  al., \r\n2016; Gil et  al., 2017; Lipper et  al., 2017; Richardson et  al., 2018). \r\nAdaptation options can be considered as parameters in integrated \r\nmodels, such as those used in ISI-MIP, while others use systematic \r\nassessments of case studies, such as the application of agent-based \r\nhousehold models to assessments of adaptation in livestock systems \r\n(Section 5.5.4). Quantitative studies are less common than qualitative \r\nassessments, and there is a need to combine modelling and qualitative \r\napproaches more effectively (Beveridge et al., 2018a; Vermeulen et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 9191091162380932294a70fbfade94cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20442
content:
"Global simulations have uncovered important differences between \r\nregions (Deryng et al., 2016; Blanchard et al., 2017). Efforts to coordinate \r\nand combine regional and global modelling studies allow for greater \r\ninsight into regional differences in climate change impacts, such as \r\nthe Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) performed \r\nby the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project \r\n(AgMIP) (Blanchard et al., 2017; Muller et al., 2017; Rosenzweig et al., \r\n2018; Ruane et al., 2018; Lotze et al., 2019). Increasingly, multi-model \r\nintercomparisons are used to evaluate global gridded crop models' "


id: 47c16740f06a7f93ecbc334e66f62cb9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8667
content:
"The food system is dynamic, with changes in management practices \r\ndriven by many factors, including climate adaptation (Iizumi, 2019; \r\nIizumi et al., 2021a). Adaptation potential, such as expected advances "


id: 12fefe2bc13eaef171b9984e4fc02b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 495
content:
"because of shifts in planting dates and/or adoption of longer-duration \r\ncultivars in mid-to-high latitudes. Conversely, in mid-to-low latitudes in \r\nAsia, a review study found that farmers favoured early maturing cultivars \r\nto reduce risks of damages due to drought, flood and/or heat (Shaffril \r\net  al., 2018), suggesting that region-specific adaptations are already \r\noccurring in different parts of the world (high confidence)."


id: a2dac237444dace393e09fe10f074de3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23191
content:
"Global yields of major crops per unit land area have increased 2.5- to \r\n3-fold since 1960. Plant breeding, fertilisation, irrigation and integrated \r\npest management have been the major drivers, but many studies have \r\nfound significant impacts from recent climate trends on crop yield (high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 5.3; see Section 5.2.1 for the change attributable to \r\nanthropogenic climate change)."


id: 12afabdfa197ad78364cf1f22cdf09ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 440
content:
"Transformation of the food system that addresses all dimensions \r\nof ecosystem services is discussed in this chapter, including risk \r\nmanagement and the communication of uncertainties (Section 5.14). \r\nThe focus is on flexible approaches to risk and uncertainty, assessing \r\ntrends, drivers and trade-offs under different future scenarios (Campbell \r\net al., 2016)."


id: ea1d242f45b208da59e4fe5537eb4516
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34333
content:
"Ortiz-Bobea et al. (2021) analysed agricultural total factor productivity \r\n(TFP), defined as the ratio of all agricultural outputs to all agricultural \r\ninputs, and found that, while TFP has increased between 1961 and 2015, \r\nthe climate change trends reduced global TFP growth by a cumulative \r\n21% over a 55-year period relative to TFP growth under counterfactual \r\nnon-climate change conditions. Greater effects (30-33%) were \r\nobserved in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 5.3)."


id: 73465b39037fa7cfb8164074b95a90cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15753
content:
"Crops such as cereals, vegetables, fruit, roots, tubers, oilseeds and \r\nsugar account for about 80% of the dietary energy supply (FAO, \r\n2019 f). Crops are a significant source of food and income for about \r\n600 million farms in the world, 90% of which are family farms (Lowder \r\net al., 2019). Previous assessment reports focused on yields of staple \r\ncrops such as maize, wheat and rice, but studies are emerging on \r\nclimate change impacts on other crops."


id: b892694602f63c48367b8cb3db131e1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26564
content:
"Climate variability is a major source of variation in crop production \r\n(Ray et  al., 2015; Iizumi and Ramankutty, 2016; Frieler et  al., 2017; \r\nCottrell et al., 2019)(Table SM5.1). Weather signals in yield variability \r\nare generally stronger in productive regions than in the less productive \r\nregions (Frieler et al., 2017), where other yield constraints exist such \r\nas pests, diseases and poor soil fertility (Mills et  al., 2018; 5.2.2). \r\nNevertheless, yield variability in less productive regions has severe \r\nimpacts on local food availability and livelihood (high confidence) \r\n(FAO, 2021)."


id: e4113435c5370fa74da5a3ef3e02ff22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33364
content:
"AR5 Chapter 7 (Porter et al., 2014) stated with confidence that warmer \r\ntemperatures have benefited agriculture in the high latitudes, and \r\nmore evidence has been published to support this statement. Typical \r\nexamples include pole-ward expansion of growing areas and reduction \r\nof cold stress in East Asia and North America (Table SM5.1)."


id: 71645ae772f125b407a0847d8b772740
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15476
content:
"Climate-related hazards that cause crop losses are increasing (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Cottrell et al., 2019; Mbow et al., 2019; \r\nBras et al., 2021; FAO, 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Drought-related \r\nyield losses have occurred in about 75% of the global harvested area \r\n(Kim et al., 2019b) and increased in recent years (Lesk et al., 2016). \r\nHeatwaves have reduced yields of wheat (Zampieri et al., 2017) and \r\nrice (Liu et  al., 2019b). The combined effects of heat and drought \r\ndecreased global average yields of maize, soybeans and wheat by \r\n11.6%, 12.4% and 9.2%, respectively (Matiu et al., 2017). In Europe, "


id: 249811738bfbd47092849b1c62e8895d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3200
content:
"Recent warming trends have generally shortened the life cycle of major \r\ncrops (high confidence) (Zhang et al., 2014; Shen and Liu, 2015; Ahmed \r\net al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018c; Tan et al., 2021). Some studies, however, \r\nobserved prolonged crop growth duration despite the warming trends \r\n(Mueller et al., 2015; Tao et al., 2016; Butler et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2018b) "


id: e0492b679239786b6ab52cc972622b89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 32783
content:
"fruit set, resulting in negitive impacts on yield (Daryanto et al., 2017; \r\nSita et al., 2017; Bras et al., 2021) and harvest quality (Mattos et al., \r\n2014; Bisbis et al., 2018). Growers have already seen negative impacts \r\nfrom the expansion of pest and disease agents due to warming \r\n(Section 5.4.1.3; Figure 5.3)."


id: 31b78348149e6492e9c065bf4c098a2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5234
content:
"crop losses due to drought and heat have tripled over the last five \r\ndecades (Bras et al., 2021), pointing to the importance of assessing \r\nmultiple stresses. Globally, floods also increased in the past 50 years, \r\ncausing direct damages to crops and indirectly reduced yields by \r\ndelaying planting, which cost 4.5  billion USD in the 2010 flood in \r\nPakistan and 572  million USD in the 2015 flood in Myanmar (FAO, \r\n2021)."


id: fee98150c3294866eabf3573ee57e1d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37650
content:
"Below-ground vegetables include starchy roots and tubers that form a \r\nregular diet in many parts of the tropics and subtropics. Warming and \r\nclimate variability has altered the rate of tuber development, with yield \r\nimpacts varying by location, including yield increases in some cases \r\n(Shimoda et al., 2018; Ray et al., 2019). These crops are considered \r\nstress tolerant but are more sensitive to drought than cereals (Daryanto \r\net  al., 2017). Impacts on water supply are critical as root crops are \r\nwater-demanding for long periods, and highly sensitive to drought and \r\nheat events during tuber initiation (Dua et al., 2013; Potopova et al., \r\n2017; Bras et al., 2021)."


id: d7b9bf5b548347efe6d69b82c6af6c43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31465
content:
"The impact of climate change on these diverse crop types is under\u0002researched and uncertain (Manners and van Etten, 2018; Alae-Carew \r\net al., 2020); there are reports of positive impacts in some cases, but \r\noverall the observed impacts are negative across all crop categories \r\n(Figure 5.3)."


id: 1ff808023f776e87910a64d752e4d627
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2471
content:
"Among perennial tree crops, only grapevine, olive, almond, apple, \r\ncoffee and cocoa have received significant research attention. Concerns \r\nabout climate impacts on harvest quality are widespread (Figure 5.3) \r\n(Barnuud et al., 2014; Bonada et al., 2015). In higher-latitude regions, \r\nthe primary concern is the effect of temperature variability on harvest \r\nstability, pests and diseases and phenology (including fulfilment of \r\nwinter chill requirements and risks due to early emergence in spring), \r\n(El Yaacoubi et al., 2014; Ramirez and Kallarackal, 2015; Santos et al., \r\n2017; Gitea et  al., 2019). In lower-latitude regions, information is "


id: bb08aebaf2cd50f8900d087bd437b8d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26970
content:
"Above-ground annual crops consumed as vegetables, fruits or salad are \r\nessential for food security and nutrition (5.12). In temperate regions, \r\nclimate change can result in higher yields (Potopova et al., 2017; Bisbis \r\net  al., 2018), while in subtropical/tropical regions, negative impacts \r\nfrom heat and drought take precedence (Scheelbeek et  al., 2018). \r\nDifferent species have different sensitivities to heat and drought \r\n(Prasad et  al., 2017; Scheelbeek et  al., 2018) and to combinations \r\nof stresses (Zandalinas et  al., 2018). Above-ground vegetables are \r\nespecially vulnerable to heat and drought stress during pollination and "


id: a587d7fb704a4a02cb55a644eca9d928
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 23613
content:
"Figure 5.3 |  Synthesis of literature on observed impacts of climate change on productivity by crop type and region. The figure draws on >150 articles categorized \r\nby: agriculture total factor productivity including literature estimating all agricultural outputs in a region; major crop species including literature assessing yield changes in the \r\nfour major crops; crop categories including productivity changes (yield, quality and other perceived changes) in a range of crops with different growth habits. The assessment uses \r\nliterature published since AR5, although the timespan often extends prior to 2014. The direction of the effect and the confidence are based on the reported impacts and attribution, \r\nand on the number of articles. See SM5.1 and SM5.2 for details."


id: 5229bff49ca040d0b9e93ae51923811e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 10379
content:
"2015). Some studies highlight the importance of location-specific \r\nspecies interactions for more realistic projections of pest distribution, \r\nperformance and damage to crops, which in turn would allow more \r\neffective prevention and pest control strategies (Wilson et al., 2015; \r\nCarrasco et al., 2018)."


id: 13c4c71f20dfd7335e2c8c8a8babc31d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 611
content:
"Weeds are recognised as a primary constraint on crop production \r\n(Oerke, 2006), rangelands (DiTomaso et al., 2017) and forests (Webster \r\net al., 2006). Climate change could favour the growth and development \r\nof weeds over crops with negative consequences for desired plants in \r\nmanaged systems (medium evidence, high agreement) (Peters et al., \r\n2014; Ziska and McConnell, 2016). First, changes in temperature \r\nand precipitation alter the range, composition and competitiveness \r\nof native and invasive weeds (Bradley et  al., 2010). Second, rising \r\nconcentrations of CO2 enhance growth of C3 species (~85% of plant \r\nspecies, including many weeds) (Ogren and Chollet, 1982; Ziska, 2003), \r\nand increase plant water use efficiency with potentially strong effects \r\non invasive plant species establishment (Smith et  al., 2000; Belote \r\net al., 2004; Blumenthal et al., 2013)."


id: f3b7c5bc0a824057cab47a9188f3dbf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 35859
content:
"Among the fibre crops, cotton is particularly well studied. As cotton \r\nis heat tolerant and yield increases with extra plant growth, positive \r\neffects of increasing temperature are expected, but observed impacts \r\nhave been mixed due to negative impacts on phenology and plant \r\nwater status (Traore et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2015a; Cho and McCarl, \r\n2017). Negative impacts of climate change due to proliferation of the \r\npest cotton bollworm are widely reported (Ouyang et al., 2014; Huang \r\nand Hao, 2020)."


id: 27a1a778ff92f43f9ae122f9c2d4266e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3644
content:
"Some invasive species within unmanaged areas will expand further, \r\nproliferate and be more competitive under climate change as they may \r\nbenefit from increased resource ability (e.g., additional CO2, enhanced \r\nprecipitation) (Bradley et  al., 2010; Kathiresan and Gualbert, 2016; \r\nMerow et al., 2017; Ramesh et al., 2017; Waryszak et al., 2018), which \r\nwill make chemical weed control more problematic (medium evidence,\r\nhigh agreement) (Waryszak et  al., 2018; Ziska, 2020). The range of \r\nother invasive weeds may become static, or even decline (Bradley \r\net al., 2016; Buckley and Csergo, 2017). A recent meta-analysis also \r\nsupports that invasive plants respond more favourably to elevated CO2\r\nconcentrations and elevated temperatures than native plants (Korres \r\net al., 2016; Liu et al., 2017). Movement of invasive species into low\u0002fertility areas, however, could provide resource opportunities, especially \r\nif agriculture in those areas is limited (Randriambanona et al., 2019)."


id: 61a450eaee20de17a9d6a8e55d815c38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12929
content:
"The impacts of climate change on water availability (rainfall and \r\nirrigation supply) are an emerging issue. Increased occurrence of \r\ndrought combined with limited access to irrigation water is already \r\na key constraint; for example, Californian almonds are predicted to \r\nincrease their potential geographical range under climate warming \r\n(Parker, 2018), yet a trend of increasing drought has already resulted in \r\ntrees being removed due to lack of access to irrigation water (Keppen \r\nand Dutcher, 2015; Kerr et al., 2018; Reisman, 2019)."


id: 31f11a85677f092b629505e76ef3da8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5271
content:
"Rising CO2 concentrations and climate change could reduce herbicide \r\nefficacy (medium evidence, high agreement). These reductions may \r\nbe associated with physical environmental changes (precipitation, \r\nwind speed) that influence herbicide coverage (Ziska, 2016) as well \r\nas direct effects of CO2 on plant biochemistry and herbicide resistance \r\n(Refatti et  al., 2019). Increasing CO2 levels and altered temperature \r\nand precipitation are therefore projected to affect all aspects of weed \r\nbiology (Peters et  al., 2014; Ziska and McConnell, 2016), including \r\nestablishment (Bradley et  al., 2016), competition (Fernando et  al., \r\n2019), distribution, (Castellanos-Frias et al., 2016) and management \r\n(Waryszak et al., 2018)."


id: 7ef46bb0d26cfa5ec55037148c331867
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17530
content:
"AR5 and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019) indicated that more frequent outbreaks \r\nand area expansion of pests and diseases are serious concerns under \r\nclimate change but are under-researched because of the difficulties in \r\nassessing multi-species interactions (Porter et al., 2014; Mbow et al., \r\n2019). High-quality historical and current observational data to detect \r\nchanges in pests and diseases attributable to recent trends in climate \r\nare still limited."


id: f923c43c2bb83698c3b7b3917519ac83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36708
content:
"Bebber (2013) found significant poleward expansions of many \r\nimportant groups of crop pests and pathogens since 1960, with an \r\naverage shift of 2.7 km yr-1. Different pest species populations respond \r\ndifferently to ongoing climate change, with some shifting, contracting \r\nor expanding their current distribution range and others persisting or \r\ndisappearing in their current range (high confidence). These asymmetric \r\ndistribution changes can create novel species combinations or \r\ndecouple existing ones (Pecl et al., 2017; Hobbs et al., 2018), but their \r\nconsequences on future crop production and food security are hard to \r\npredict. Multi-species climate change experiments are rare (Bonebrake \r\net al., 2018), but one study shows that under future climates different \r\npest assemblages of interacting species may alter levels of damage \r\nto crops compared with that by only one species (Crespo-Perez et al., "


id: a3bdbebcd2db10c4e1eca872e83bb180
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23325
content:
"A warmer climate increases the need for pesticides (Shakhramanyan \r\net  al., 2013; Ziska, 2014; Delcour et  al., 2015; Zhang et  al., 2018). \r\nIncreases in temperature and CO2 concentration may reduce pesticide \r\nefficiency by altering its metabolism, or accelerating detoxification \r\n(Matzrafi et  al., 2016; Matzrafi, 2019). Intense rainfall also reduces \r\npersistence (Delcour et  al., 2015). Invasive pests and pathogens \r\nimpose an additional cost for the society (Bradshaw et al., 2016). Rapid \r\nand large-scale dispersal of pests is already a major threat to food \r\nsecurity, as exemplified by the recent outbreak of desert locusts (see \r\nBox 5.8), indicating the importance of international cooperation. Taken "


id: 26df432fbfcf5e179afd5ae35c7fc37e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3509
content:
"Simultaneous yield losses across major producing regions can be a threat to food security but had not been quantified by the time of AR5. \r\nLarge-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations greatly influence global yield of major crops (high confidence) (Anderson et al., \r\n2019b; Najafi et al., 2019; Ubilava and Abdolrahimi, 2019; Heino et al., 2020; Iizumi et al., 2021b) and food prices (Ubilava, 2018). Some \r\nstudies showed that crop yields in different regions covaried with SST oscillations, suggesting occurrences of tele-connected yield failures \r\n(crop losses caused by related factors in distant regions; Table Box 5.1.1) (medium confidence). Evidence of synchronised crop failures \r\nincreasing with ongoing climate change is still limited."


id: 7a63e58226dd2cd084bc213d2e90c22b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16825
content:
"together, the need for control of pests, disease and weeds will increase \r\nunder climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). The use of \r\ntoxic agricultural chemicals also has human health and environmental \r\nrisks (Whitmee et al., 2015; IPBES, 2019). Surveillance for monitoring \r\npest distribution and damages, climate-relevant pest risk analysis, and \r\nclimate-smart strategies for controlling pests with minimal impacts on \r\nhuman and environmental health are important tools in the face of \r\nclimate change (IPPC Secretariat, 2021)."


id: 5cdc23099aee3dd9511f4fc6958b0c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12125
content:
"some locations and times reaches levels that harm plants, animals and \r\nhuman (high confidence) (Fleming et al., 2018)."


id: c027e7c4b2748a2a330934a435d06206
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27786
content:
"Mills (2018) estimated global distributions of current yield losses \r\nof major crops due to ozone, pest and diseases, heat, and aridity \r\n(Figure  5.4). Ozone-induced yield losses in 2010-2012 averaged \r\n12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, \r\nrespectively. Spatial variation in yield losses is similar among different \r\nstresses; areas with a large loss due to ozone are also at high risk \r\nof yield losses due to pest and diseases and heat. Many vegetable \r\ncrops are also susceptible to ozone, which will adversely impact quality \r\nand quantity (Mattos et al., 2014; Bisbis et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 46f4d8e8205e92467453168f80bd05dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8550
content:
"Tropospheric (i.e., the lowest 6-10 km of the atmosphere) ozone \r\nexacerbates negative impacts of climate change (high confidence) \r\n(Mattos et al., 2014; Chuwah et al., 2015; McGrath et al., 2015; Bisbis \r\net al., 2018; Mills et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., 2018). Ozone is an \r\nair pollutant and short-lived GHG that affects air quality and global \r\nclimate. It is a strong oxidant that reduces physiological functions, \r\nyield and quality of crops and animals. Surface ozone concentration \r\nhas increased substantially since the late 19th century (Cooper et al., \r\n2014; Forster et al., 2021; Gulev et al., 2021; Szopa et al., 2021) and in "


id: dbc16e53b45d332ce610efe0821437b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32089
content:
"The estimated yield loss does not account for interactions with other \r\nclimatic factors. Temperatures enhance not only ozone production but \r\nalso ozone uptake by plants, exacerbating yield and quality damage. \r\nBurney (2014) estimated current yield losses due to the combined \r\neffects of ozone and heat in India at 36% for wheat and 20% for rice. \r\nSchauberger et  al. (2019a) found global yield losses, ranging from \r\n2% to 10% for soybean and 0% to 39% for wheat with a model that "


id: 64ce99415c4f8da814aca6a2d6eaf6d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13430
content:
"Yield Constraint Score for the effect of five crop stresses on global production of soybean and wheat\r\nThe yield constraint score integrates the five stress depicted below which provide an indication of where each stress is predicted to be \r\naffecting crop yield globally and the magnitude of the effect."


id: 80cfd0a98f3f74d2aa385eecbfffa64c
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content:
"Figure 5.4 |  The global effects of five biotic and abiotic stresses on soybean and wheat. All data are presented for the 1 x 1deg (latitude and longitude) grid squares \r\nwhere the mean production of soybean or wheat was >500 tonnes (0.0005 Tg). The effect of each stress on yield is presented as a Yield Constraint Score (YCS) on a scale of 1-5, \r\nwhere 5 is the highest level of stress from ozone, pests and diseases, heat stress and aridity (Mills et al., 2018). Data are available at Sharps et al. (2020). See Annex I: Global to \r\nRegional Atlas for all four crops."


id: f8ecb1a70857f3626157dccc16ea509a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"and central Asia result from high vulnerability (low coping capacity), \r\nwhereas risk levels are relatively low despite the high exposure by \r\nrelatively high adaptive capacity to drought in other regions."


id: eb1b5427a97f7700cfbaf5dd04c692c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 34492
content:
"Regional-scale assessment also highlights the importance of adaptive \r\ncapacity. For instance, rice and maize production in Viet Nam Mekong \r\nDelta has high exposure to multiple climate hazards such as flooding, \r\nsea level rise, salinity intrusion and drought (Parker et al., 2019). Risks \r\ncan be moderated by a relatively high adaptive capacity because of \r\ninfrastructure, resources and high education levels (Parker et  al., \r\n2019). Another regional study demonstrated that erratic rains and \r\nhigh temperatures in southern and southeastern Africa increased \r\nthe vulnerability of agricultural soils, thereby exacerbating impacts \r\nof prolonged and frequent droughts (Sonwa et  al., 2017a; See also \r\nBox 5.4)."


id: 4a85d2491911bda90155ba3b8985f9fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 9128
content:
"Since AR5, vulnerability assessment has become a pivotal component \r\nof risk analysis associated with climate hazards, climate change and \r\nclimate variability (UNDRR, 2019). Vulnerability assessment can be \r\nsectoral or regional but involves social and ecological indicators. This \r\nsection presents examples of vulnerability assessment to climatic \r\nhazards and social vulnerabilities."


id: 3104c8e15a1a0c568cf6b1c6020d3dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Farm-scale assessment exemplifies context-sensitive vulnerability \r\nto climate hazards. Studies of coffee growers in Central America \r\ndemonstrated that key vulnerability indicators varied greatly between \r\nregions and between farms, ranging from a lack of labour, postharvest \r\ninfrastructure, conservation practices and transport that limits access \r\nto market, technical and financial assistance (Baca et  al., 2014; \r\nBouroncle et al., 2017). These region- and scale-specific vulnerability "


id: 2a4960c4e1a6d605f690c5c45dd66280
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Drought is a major risk component in cropping systems globally, \r\nwith substantial economic loss (Kim et al., 2019b), livelihood impacts \r\n(Shiferaw et al., 2014; Miyan, 2015) and ultimately health risks such as \r\nmalnutrition (Phalkey et al., 2015; Cooper et al., 2019). Vulnerability to \r\ndrought can be estimated with a range of indicators (Hagenlocher et al., \r\n2019). Meza (2020) showed that drought risks could be exacerbated \r\nor moderated by regional differences in vulnerability (Figure 5.5). For \r\ninstance, high-level risks observed in southern Africa, western Asia "


id: f1ea4f8db4916410decbe489410d45e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Figure 5.5 |  Hazard and exposure indicator score (a), vulnerability index (b) and drought risk index (c), for rainfed agricultural systems between 1986 and \r\n2015. Drought hazard indicator is defined as the ratio of actual crop evapotranspiration to potential crop evapotranspiration, calculated for 24 crops. Vulnerability index is the \r\ncountry-scale weighted average of a total of 64 indicators including social and ecological susceptibility indicators, and coping capacity. Risk index is calculated by multiplying hazard/\r\nexposure indicator score and vulnerability index (Meza et al., 2020)."


id: 82afcc5bed9bc5ad264aa4142f0635d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Table 5.3 |  Examples of social inequities in cropping systems that compound climate change vulnerability."


id: 9135e587a7bf831b6e06dc21ff75bc01
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"and diseases and a decline of traditional crops due to climate-change\u0002related stresses, out-migration and intensification drivers (Meldrum \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 95cedb953360bcd199cda445f2cbc735
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"indicators assist in identifying ways to enhance resilience to climate \r\nhazards (high confidence)."


id: 1d53763177cc9b9569a021936d978860
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2058
content:
"Social inequities such as gender, ethnicity and income level, which \r\nvary by time and place and may overlap, can compound vulnerability \r\nto climate change for producers within cropping systems (high \r\nconfidence) (Table 5.3, Arora-Jonsson, 2011; Djoudi et al., 2013; Carr \r\nand Thompson, 2014; Mbow et al., 2019; Rao et al., 2019a; Nyantakyi\u0002Frimpong, 2020a). Rather than binary and static categories (i.e., men \r\nversus women), social vulnerabilities are dynamic and intersect; to \r\nunderstand vulnerability, the specific socio-cultural identities and \r\npolitical and environmental context need to be studied in relation to \r\nclimate stress (Thompson-Hall et al., 2016; Rao et al., 2019a; Nyantakyi\u0002Frimpong, 2020a)."


id: a066d2a8e7634ab31b4e731e52c7c4ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 22773
content:
"Elevated CO2 concentrations stimulate photosynthesis rates and \r\nbiomass accumulation of C3 crops, and enhance crop water use \r\nefficiency of various crop species, including C4 crops (high confidence) \r\n(Kimball, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020). Perennial crops and root crops may "


id: 736652460e8563da95219b3d4e783d68
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 15780
content:
"due to climate change but do not consider technological advances. \r\nNevertheless, they provide useful insights into time-, scenario- and \r\nwarming-degree-dependent impacts of climate change."


id: 6c1fa378af95fb114c90f7de69c06994
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 14642
content:
"have a greater capacity for enhanced biomass under elevated CO2\r\nconcentrations, although this does not always result in higher yields \r\n(Glenn et al., 2013; Kimball, 2016)."


id: 25ce11bfaf0002d9a995e226be0c65e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3375
content:
"Recent FACE studies found that the effects of elevated CO2 are greater \r\nunder water-limited conditions (medium confidence) (Manderscheid \r\net al., 2014; Fitzgerald et al., 2016; Kimball, 2016), which was generally \r\nreproduced by crop models (Deryng et  al., 2016). However, drought \r\nsometimes negates the CO2 effects (Jin et al., 2018)."


id: aace6570baa6fc21e5798c06ac887587
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24396
content:
"The differences due to regions, RCPs and timeframes are related to \r\nthe current temperature level and degree of warming (Figure 5.7). The \r\nprojected effects of climate change are positive where current annual \r\nmean temperatures (Tave) are below 10degC, but they become negative \r\nwith Tave above around 15degC. At Tave > 20degC, even a small degree of \r\nwarming could result in adverse effects. In maize, negative effects \r\nare apparent at almost all temperature zones. A new study using \r\nthe latest climate scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project \r\nPhase 6, CMIP6) and global gridded crop model ensemble projected \r\nthat climate change impacts on major crop yields appear sooner than \r\npreviously anticipated, mainly because of warmer climate projections \r\nand improved crop model sensitivities (Jagermeyr et al., 2021)."


id: 29900c80c55fea0d895b0b42b31fed02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3976
content:
"As noted in Section 5.3.1, most simulations do not fully account for \r\nresponses to pests, diseases, long-term change in soil, and some climate \r\nextremes (Rosenzweig et al., 2014), but studies are emerging to include \r\nsome of these effects. For example, based on the temperature response \r\nof insect pest population and metabolic process, global yield losses of \r\nrice, maize and wheat are projected to increase by 10-25% per degree \r\nCelsius of warming (Deutsch et al., 2018). Rising temperatures reduce \r\nsoil carbon and nitrogen, which in turn exacerbate the negative effects \r\nof +3degC warming on yield from 9% to 13% in wheat and from 14% to \r\n19% in maize (Basso et al., 2018)."


id: b89732a2e602d539f91f88b4db7ff4f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 26569
content:
"AR5 Chapter 7 estimated global crop yield reduction due to climate \r\nchange to be about 1% per decade (Porter et al., 2014), similar to the \r\nprevious assessment reports (Porter et al., 2019). Additional research \r\nconfirms that climate change will disproportionately affect crop \r\nyields among regions, with more negative than positive effects being \r\nexpected in most areas, especially in currently warm regions, including \r\nAfrica and Central and South America (high confidence)."


id: dc2f4d62ec33ff340966ee01a1fb17d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 32151
content:
"A few studies have examined possible occurrences of tele-connected \r\nyield losses (5.4.1.2) using future climate scenarios. Tigchelaar (2018) \r\nestimated that, for the top four maize-exporting countries, the \r\nprobability that simultaneous production losses greater than 10% \r\noccur in any given year increases from 0% to 7% under 2degC warming \r\nand to 86% under 4degC warming. Gaupp (2019) estimated that risks of \r\nsimultaneous failure in maize would increase from 6% to 40% at 1.5degC \r\nand to 54% at 2degC warming, relative to the historical baseline climate. \r\nLarge-scale changes in SST are the major factors causing simultaneous \r\nvariation in climate extremes, which are projected to intensify under \r\nglobal warming (Cai et al., 2014; Perry et al., 2017). Consequently, risks \r\nof simultaneous yield losses in major food-producing regions will also "


id: a4067942d548fe4c3333dc9dfa2d1734
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 23361
content:
"A systematic literature search between 2014 and 2020 resulted in \r\nabout 100 peer-reviewed papers that simulated crop yields of four \r\nmajor crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) using Coupled Model \r\nIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data (Hasegawa et  al., \r\n2021b). Most studies focus on the relative change in crop yields "


id: a653f4e4129a4c2147142fe846277b67
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 23702
content:
"estimated yield losses of four major crops (to be 25+-11% by 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5, as a net balance of the positive effect of CO2 (15+-2%) \r\nand negative effects of warming (35+-10%) and ozone (4.0+-1.3%), \r\nand that 62% of the yield loss was attributable to methane. This \r\npoints to the importance of reducing methane and other precursors \r\nof ozone as an effective adaptation strategy (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement)."


id: e51fb08902f2539bfb3a8fc45b2f962d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 33537
content:
"increase with global warming levels above 1.5degC (medium confidence). \r\nFurther examination is needed for the effects of spatial patterns of \r\nthese extremes on breadbaskets in relation to SST anomalies under \r\nmore extreme climate scenarios."


id: 43e0e10b985de84abbed7ef3a52e2d9a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8089
content:
"Future surface ozone concentration is highly uncertain (Fiore et al., \r\n2012; Turnock et al., 2018); it is projected to increase under RCP8.5 and \r\ndecrease under other RCPs depending largely on different methane \r\nemission trajectories because methane is an important precursor \r\nof ozone. Methane, therefore, reduces crop yield both from climate \r\nwarming and ozone increase (Avnery et  al., 2013). Shindell (2016) "


id: 20e79ef0bcd9aead3493500c56ddfd81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2609
content:
"and found reductions in availability were similar in cereals, fruit and \r\nvegetables, and root and tubers (with legumes and oilseed crops \r\nshowing a smaller reduction)."


id: 90e4c8490b30aa2381d640a42d29da4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20341
content:
"Yield projections for crops other than cereals indicate mostly \r\nnegative impacts on production due to a range of climate drivers \r\n(high confidence), with yield reductions similar to that of cereals \r\nexpected in tropical, subtropical and semi-arid areas (Mbow et  al., \r\n2019). Springmann et al. (2016), compared the projected global food \r\navailability for different food groups under the SSP2 2050 scenario "


id: 8db0518a61488389f9cc404ee70e0230
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Fruit and vegetables have not been subject to extensive or coordinated \r\nyield projections (Figure 5.8). Yield projections have been performed for \r\nindividual crops and locations (Ruane, 2014; Adhikari et al., 2015; Awoye \r\net al., 2017; Ramachandran et al., 2017), but more often crop suitability "


id: fb8229a297f89b816684c43a25803000
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 37069
content:
"Figure 5.8 |  Synthesis of literature on the projected impacts of climate change on different cropping systems. The assessment includes projections of impacts on \r\ncrop productivity over a range of emission scenarios and time periods. The projected impacts are disaggregated by the different climate and climate-related drivers. Impacts are \r\nreported as positive, negative or mixed. The assessment draws on >60 articles published since AR5. The confidence is based on the evidence given in individual articles and on the \r\nnumber of articles. See SM5.2 information for details."


id: b3e9ba50d59afa2a001d659b1b53a6c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"per 100 ppm elevation in CO2 but declines of 4.6% per degree Celsius \r\nand 2% per 10% decrease in rainfall (Fleisher et al., 2017). Jennings \r\net al. (2020) projected an overall increase in global potato production, \r\nbut only if widespread adoption of adaptation measures is achieved. \r\nAlthough increases in CO2 could produce positive yield responses, \r\nthe effects of temperature may offset these potential benefits (Dua \r\net al., 2013; Raymundo et al., 2014). Warming offers the potential of \r\nlonger growing seasons but can also have negative impacts through \r\ndisrupted phenology and interactions with pests (Figure 5.8, Bebber, \r\n2015; Pulatov et al., 2015)."


id: 3e7e017d0c6c3b9dab7b6c6fe068744
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7211
content:
"Systematic assessments of climate response for root crops as a group \r\nare lacking (Raymundo et al., 2014; Knox et al., 2016; Manners and \r\nvan Etten, 2018). Climate suitability is projected to increase for tropical \r\nroot crops (SM5.3), and some studies have found that root crops will \r\nbe less negatively impacted than cereals, but there is no consensus on \r\nthis (Brassard and Singh, 2008; Adhikari et al., 2015; Schafleitner, 2016; \r\nManners et al., 2021). For potato, Raymundo et al. (2018) projected \r\nglobal yield reductions of 2-6% by 2055 under different RCPs, but \r\nwith important differences among regions; tuber dry weight may \r\nexperience reductions of 50-100% in marginal growing areas such \r\nas central Asia, while increases of up to 25% are expected in many \r\nhigh-yielding environments. Projections show yield increases of 6% "


id: f0fdf1173cf350a3e0718089a53bb3c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Wine-growing regions cover 7.4 million ha, with a value of 35 billion USD in 2018 (OIV, 2019). Important regions (Italy, France, Spain, \r\nUSA, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, Chile, Germany, China, Argentina) are located in areas where mean annual temperature roughly \r\nvaries between 10degC and 20degC (Schultz and Jones, 2010; Mosedale et al., 2016)."


id: 3111edbef2d712fbd3e5b685ddd1d0f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 5144
content:
"Rising CO2 will have mixed effects on vine growth and quality (medium evidence, high agreement) (Martinez-Luscher et  al., 2016; \r\nEdwards et al., 2017; van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017). Rising CO2 concentrations will negatively affect wine quality by reducing \r\nanthocyanin concentration and colour intensity (Leibar et al., 2017)."


id: 9ff8c340000a93ae697be277f80395e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Suitability responses to warming are region-specific. In regions where low temperature is a limiting factor, warming will enable growers \r\nto grow a wider range of varieties and obtain better-quality wines (high confidence) (Fuhrer et al., 2014; Mosedale et al., 2015; Mosedale \r\net al., 2016; Meier et al., 2018; Jobin Poirier et al., 2019; Maciejczak and Mikiciuk, 2019). Subtropical and Mediterranean regions will \r\nexperience major declines in fruit quality for high-quality wines (high confidence) (Resco et al., 2016; Lazoglou et al., 2018; Cardell et al., \r\n2019; Fraga et al., 2019a; Fraga et al., 2019b; Teslic et al., 2019). These changes will also affect wine tourism (Nunes and Loureiro, 2016)."


id: e7509e00693d5c8f5089eb7b9acccd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33885
content:
"Impacts on suitability may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions. Viability of the wine-growing regions will depend on the \r\nknowledge of local climatic variability (Neethling et al., 2019; Resseguier et al., 2020) and the implementation of adaptation strategies \r\nsuch as use of adapted plant material rootstocks, cultivars and clones, viticultural techniques (e.g., changing trunk height, leaf area to \r\nfruit weight ratio, timing of pruning), irrigation, enological interventions to control alcohol and acidity, and policy incentives and support \r\n(Callen et al., 2016; Ollat and Leeuwen, 2016; van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017; Merloni et al., 2018; Alikadic et al., 2019; del Pozo \r\net al., 2019; Fraga et al., 2019b; Santillan et al., 2019; Morales-Castilla et al., 2020; Marin et al., 2021)."


id: 232b3b5584c5f4326299e62122273847
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2978
content:
"Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator \r\nactivity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions (high confidence) (Potts et al., 2010; Gonzalez-Varo et al., 2013; Polce \r\net al., 2014; Kerr et al., 2015; Potts et al., 2016; Settele et al., 2016; Giannini et al., 2017; Mbow et al., 2019). A modelling study estimates \r\nthat complete removal of pollinators could reduce global fruit supply by 23%, vegetables by 16%, and nuts and seeds by 22%, leading \r\nto significant increases in nutrient-deficient population and malnutrition-related diseases (Smith and Haddad, 2015), highlighting the \r\nimportance of this ecosystem service for human health."


id: 4d4893d16483a542c86f92c2259932f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9588
content:
"Bees are an essential agricultural pollinator, widely recognised for their role in the fertilisation of many domesticated plants. The observed \r\nwidespread decline in native bees and honeybee colony numbers, particularly in the USA and Europe, has been associated with a number \r\nof environmental stressors in addition to climate change, such as neonicotinoids and varroa mites, and has raised concerns regarding \r\nplant-pollinator networks, the stability of pollination services, global food production and the prevalence of malnutrition (Williams and \r\nOsborne, 2009; Potts et al., 2010; Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2014)."


id: 1b6ae327bcd8761b6c52ad5464889664
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1775
content:
"Any climatic influence on floral phenology or physiology could, potentially, alter bee biology. At present, there is evidence that climate\u0002change-induced asynchrony in pollen and pollinators can occur (Stemkovski et al., 2020). In addition, the nutritional composition of floral \r\npollen may also affect bees' health at the global level (low evidence). For example, goldenrod (Solidago spp.), a ubiquitous pollen source \r\nfor bees just prior to winter, has experienced a ~30% drop in protein since the onset of CO2 emissions from the industrial revolution \r\n(Ziska et al., 2016)."


id: 7a4e24e04f13692e6a5e1c0f0dee4970
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 16812
content:
"Climate extremes could pose risks to pollinators when species tolerance is exceeded, with subsequent reduction in populations and \r\npotential extirpation (Nicholson and Egan, 2020; Soroye et al., 2020). The rate of climate change may induce potential mismatches in \r\nthe timing of flowering and pollinator activity depending on the species (Bartomeus et al., 2011). For instance, Miller-Struttmann (2015) \r\nshowed that long-tongued bumblebees may be at a disadvantage as warming temperatures are reducing their floral hosts, making \r\ngeneralist bumblebees more successful."


id: 68ac98db29e540a99eed624cc673c85d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14063
content:
"Overall, there is medium confidence that long-term mutualisms may be impacted directly by CO2 increases in terms of nutrition, or by \r\ntemperature and other climatic shifts that may alter floral emergence relative to pollinator life cycles. Additional research is needed to \r\nfurther our understanding of the biological basis for these effects, and their consequence for pollination services."


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"Soil health, defined as an integrative property that reflects the capacity of soil to respond to land management, continues to support \r\nprovisioning ecosystem services (Kibblewhite et al., 2008). Climate change will have significant impacts on soil health indicators such \r\nas soil organic matter (SOM). For example, precipitation extremes can reduce soil biological functions, and increase surface flooding, \r\nwaterlogging, soil erosion and susceptibility to salinisation (Herbert et al., 2015; Chen and Mueller, 2018; Akter et al., 2019; Sanchez\u0002Rodriguez et al., 2019)."


id: b107e5a5934b14aba83fe30c4f08cd8a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"The most significant threat to soil health is the loss of SOM (FAO and ITPS, 2015). SOM holds a great proportion of the nutrients, and \r\nregulates important soil physical, chemical and biological processes, such as cation exchange capacity, pH buffering, soil structure, \r\nwater-holding capacity and microbial activity (FAO and ITPS, 2015). Soils also hold the largest terrestrial organic carbon stock, three to \r\nfour times greater than the atmosphere (Stoorvogel et al., 2017). At the global scale, climate and vegetation are the main drivers of soil \r\norganic carbon (SOC) storage (Wiesmeier et al., 2019). While organic matter input is the primary driver of SOC stocks (Fujisaki et al., \r\n2018), temperature and soil moisture play a key role in SOC storage at the local scale (Carvalhais et al., 2014; Doetterl et al., 2015). Soil \r\ntype, land use and management practices also play important roles at the local scale."


id: b693a0b958bfa09f2efc0921384fb5c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Increase in soil temperature will negatively impact SOC, but primarily in higher latitudes (medium confidence) (Carey et al., 2016; Qi et al., \r\n2016; Feng et al., 2017; Gregorich et al., 2017; Hicks Pries et al., 2017; Melillo et al., 2017; Hicks Pries et al., 2018). Experiments have \r\nshown that warming can accelerate litter mass loss and soil respiration (Lu et al., 2013) and reduces the soil recalcitrant C pool (Chen \r\net al., 2020). SOC losses may speed up soil structural degradation, changes in soil stoichiometry and function (Hakkenberg et al., 2008; \r\nTamene et al., 2019), with downstream effects on aquatic ecosystems. The rate and extent of SOC losses vary greatly depending on the \r\nscale of measurement (local to global), soil properties, climate, land use and management practices (Sanderman et al., 2017; Wiesmeier \r\net al., 2019)."


id: b8cde0ab972f7ca84b9ec62490f6566b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 26597
content:
"Soil C sequestration is an important strategy to improve crop and livestock production sustainably that could be applied at large scales \r\nand at a low cost, if there was adequate institutional support and labour, using agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping \r\nand targeted application of fertilizer and compost (high confidence) (Paustian et al., 2016; Kongsager, 2018; Nath et al., 2018; Woolf et al., \r\n2018; Corbeels et al., 2019; Kuyah et al., 2019; Corbeels et al., 2020; Muchane et al., 2020; Sun et al., 2020; Nath et al., 2021). For example, \r\na widespread adoption of agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping and balanced application of fertilizer and compost by \r\nIndia's small landholders could increase annual C sequestration by 70-130 Tg CO2e (Nath et al., 2018; Nath et al., 2021)."


id: ef21f4c435ef51c3ab424adfb67d5743
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"anticipated to increase fungal and microbial growth on leaves and fruit, \r\nwhile altered flooding regimes increase the risk of crop contamination \r\n(Liu et al., 2013; Uyttendaele et al., 2015). This is also true for perennial \r\ncrops; for example, warming and climate variability can increase fungal \r\ncontamination of grapes, including that associated with mycotoxins \r\n(Battilani, 2016; Paterson, 2018)."


id: 3006af26602a8127a7ba26c8c6911b63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 4985
content:
"For cotton, experimental studies suggest positive impacts from rising \r\nCO2 and temperature (Zhang et  al., 2017a; Jans et  al., 2021), but \r\nprojections show mixed impacts on yield, including large negative \r\nimpacts in warmer regions due to heat, drought and the interaction of \r\ntemperature with phenology (Yang et al., 2014; Williams et al., 2015; \r\nAdhikari et  al., 2016; Rahman et  al., 2018). Climate change is also \r\nexpected to increase the demand for irrigation water, which will likely \r\nlimit production (Jans et al., 2021). There are also concerns that fibre \r\nquality may deteriorate (e.g., air permeability of compressed cotton \r\nfibers) (Luo et al., 2016)."


id: e975c2b72c446c78910fd6b081f96512
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 34238
content:
"Higher temperatures and altered moisture levels are expected to \r\npresent a food safety risk, particularly for above-ground harvested \r\nvegetables (Figures  5.8; 5.10). Warmer and wetter weather is "


id: 98fdf7e03ec3631e540e9975c6624cbb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"of two or more options do not necessarily have greater adaptation \r\npotential than a single option, though a fair comparison is difficult \r\nin the data set from independent studies. One regional study in West \r\nAfrica found that currently promising management would no longer \r\nbe effective under future climate, suggesting the need to evaluate \r\neffectiveness under projected climate change."


id: f6154311633f0e2ed3d06be5548a968b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"and human well-being (Chan et al., 2012; Triguero-Mas et al., 2015). \r\nCES in agricultural and wild landscapes include recreational activities, \r\naccess to wild or cultivated products, and cultural foods, spiritual rituals, \r\nheritage and memory dimensions, and aesthetic experiences (Daugstad \r\net  al., 2006; Calvet-Mir et  al., 2012; Ruoso et  al., 2015). Relative to \r\nother ecosystem services, CES in agricultural landscapes have been less \r\nresearched (Merlin-Uribe et al., 2012; Milcu et al., 2013; Bernues et al., \r\n2014; Plieninger et al., 2014; van Berkel and Verburg, 2014; Ruoso et al., \r\n2015; Quintas-Soriano et al., 2016). Agricultural heritage is a key aspect \r\nof CES and plays an important role in maintaining agrobiodiversity \r\n(Hanacek and Rodriguez-Labajos, 2018)."


id: ef62fd9ba6e59317020d7662292c1d79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 35143
content:
"Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on CES (medium \r\nconfidence) (Table 5.4). There is limited evidence that climate change has \r\nbeen the main driver affecting CES of agroecosystems confounded by \r\nother drivers such as migration and changing farming patterns (Hanacek \r\nand Rodriguez-Labajos, 2018; Dhakal and Kattel, 2019). Recent studies \r\nobserved declines in CES in alpine pastures and floodplains in Europe in \r\npart due to climate change impacts (Probstl-Haider et al., 2016; Schirpke \r\net al., 2019). Another study estimated that the scenic beauty enjoyed by \r\nthose who visit the vineyards in central Chile will decline by 18-28% \r\nby 2050 owing to a combination of reduced precipitation, increased \r\ntemperatures and natural fire cycles (Martinez-Harms et  al., 2017). \r\nMore research is needed, however, particularly on cultural heritage and \r\nspiritually significant places and in low-income countries."


id: e2b87bb75e1a3a3b00047e47fc4fd840
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 33175
content:
"Adaptation strategies in crop production range from field and farm\u0002level technical options such as crop management and cultivar/crop \r\noptions to livelihood diversification and income protection such \r\nas index-based insurance. This section assesses crop management \r\noptions for different crop types. Feasibility of adaptation options in \r\nvarious systems is addressed in Section 5.14."


id: 5b6e65009058ea86dcf42a13d2f61e15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 11885
content:
"Most crop modelling studies on adaptation are still limited to a handful \r\nof options for each crop type (Beveridge et al., 2018a). A range of other \r\noptions are possible not just to reduce yield losses but to diversify \r\nrisks to livelihoods, which are partially assessed in Sections 5.4.4.4 and \r\n5.14.1. Current modelling approaches are not suited for the assessment \r\nof multiple dimensions of adaptation options. New studies are \r\nemerging that evaluate multiple options for productivity, sustainability \r\nand GHG emission (Xin and Tao, 2019; Smith et al., 2020b), but local\u0002and household-scale assessment, taking account of future climatic \r\nvariability, needs to be enhanced (Beveridge et al., 2018a)."


id: 91a9cfb5d2b0855784e876e1e7a1d16b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Crop management practices are the most commonly studied adaptation \r\nmeasures (Shaffril et  al., 2018; Hansen et  al., 2019a; Muchuru and \r\nNhamo, 2019), but quantitative assessments are mostly limited to \r\nexisting agronomic options such as changes in planting schedules, \r\ncultivars and irrigation (Beveridge et al., 2018a; Aggarwal et al., 2019). \r\nThis section draws on the global data set used in Section  5.4.3.2 \r\n(Hasegawa et  al., 2021b) to estimate adaptation potential, defined \r\nas the difference in simulated yields with and without adaptations. A \r\ncaveat to the analysis is that the data set includes management options \r\nif the literature treats them as adaptation. They include intensification \r\nmeasures such as fertilizer and water management, not allowing for \r\nphysical and economic feasibility."


id: b8238a4ff86664853117c5c7dcacc2b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Across this diverse group of cropping systems, distinct adaptation \r\noptions and adaptation limits have emerged (Figure  5.10; Acevedo \r\net  al., 2020; Berrang-Ford et  al., 2021b). Some crop types have \r\nalready seen widescale implementation of climate adaptation (e.g., \r\ngrapevines), while others show little evidence of preparation for \r\nclimate change (e.g., leafy salad crops). Many adaptation responses \r\nare shared with the major crops, but prominent options such as plant \r\nbreeding are underutilised and there is a lack of evidence for assessing \r\nadaptation for many crops (Bisbis et  al., 2018; Gunathilaka et  al., \r\n2018; Manners and van Etten, 2018). Figure  5.10 assesses several \r\nadaptation options based on the perceived importance of each in \r\nthe literature. Fruit and vegetable crops tend to be more reliant on \r\necosystem services in the form of pollination, biocontrol and other "


id: 8709b59a177a09dfe9d07ebd3457a6d0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 18775
content:
"The overall adaptation potential of existing farm management \r\npractices to reduce yield losses averaged 8% in mid-century and \r\n11% in end-century (Figure  5.9), which is insufficient to offset the \r\nnegative impacts from climate change, particularly in currently warmer \r\nregions (Section 5.4.3.2). Emission scenarios, crop species, regions and \r\nadaptation options do not show discernible differences. Combinations "


id: 41699201ea319eab745ca86eae52cfdd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"resources (water, nutrients, microbes, etc.), and ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation options are prominent. The range of crops means that \r\nthere is great potential for crop switching, but cultural and economic \r\nbarriers will make such options difficult to implement, with barriers \r\nto entry for production and marketing (Waha et  al., 2013; Magrini \r\net  al., 2016; Kongsager, 2017; Rhiney et  al., 2018). Perennial crops \r\nare exposed to a wide range of climate factors throughout the year \r\nand have significant barriers to implementing some of the common \r\nadaptation options, such as relocation or replacing tree species/\r\ncultivar; agronomic interventions on-farm are well used in high\u0002value tree crops and provide some climate resilience, but longer-term \r\noptions will be needed (Glenn et  al., 2013; Mosedale et  al., 2016; \r\nGunathilaka et al., 2018; Sugiura, 2019)."


id: 94c53cc198da721f3503d681e53c9184
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content:
"water are crucial. Rainwater storage and deficit irrigation techniques \r\nare frequently mentioned as adaptation options and can minimise the \r\nburden on off-farm water supplies (Bisbis et al., 2018; Acevedo et al., \r\n2020)."


id: 3342b0d8a2668259ad3c98dcb21aa295
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"As stated in AR5, cultivar improvements are one effective counter\u0002measure against climate change (Porter et al., 2014; Challinor et al., \r\n2016; Atlin et  al., 2017). Plant breeding biotechnology for climate \r\nchange adaptation draws upon modern biotechnology and con\u0002ventional breeding, with the latter often assisted by genomics and \r\nmolecular markers. Plant breeding biotechnology will contribute to \r\nadaptation for large-scale producers (high confidence). However, in \r\naddition to inconsistencies in meeting farmer expectations, a variety \r\nof socioeconomic and political variables strongly influence, and limit, "


id: ea07118667d610ec3c0060b1cdb596a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"Figure 5.10 |  Synthesis of literature on the implementation of on-farm adaptation options across different cropping systems. Adaptation options that have \r\nbeen implemented by growers are considered 'tested', while those that have not are considered 'untested'. Untested options are those that appear in studies as suggestions by \r\nstakeholder or experts but were not implemented within the study. The assessment draws on >200 articles published since AR5. The confidence is based on the evidence given in \r\nindividual articles and on the number of articles. See SM5.2 for details."


id: 38cc848e57ad666f964690ca9e8b248a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"(medium agreement, limited evidence) (Puchta, 2017; Yamamoto \r\net al., 2018; Friedrichs et al., 2019; Kawall, 2019; Zhang et al., 2019b)."


id: 42a0509ea939bf4c15b341c275ab4bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 7872
content:
"Genome sequencing significantly increases the rate and accuracy \r\nfor identifying genes of agronomic traits that are relevant to climate \r\nchange, including adaptation to stress from pests and disease, \r\ntemperature and water extremes (high confidence) (Brozynska et al., \r\n2016; Scheben et al., 2016; Voss-Fels and Snowdon, 2016). Access to \r\nthis information where it is needed and in practical timeframes, as well \r\nas the expertise to use it, will limit the sharing of benefits by the most \r\nvulnerable groups and countries (high agreement, limited evidence) \r\n(Heinemann et al., 2018)."


id: fa8e05c25a7e206da7c7acb8415f0c34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Genetic improvements for climate change adaptation using modern \r\nbiotechnology have not reliably translated into the field (Hu and Xiong, \r\n2014; Nuccio et al., 2018; Napier et al., 2019), but good progress has \r\nbeen made by conventional breeding. Desirable traits that adapt plants \r\nto environmental stress are inherited as a complex of genes, each of \r\nwhich makes a small contribution to the trait (Negin and Moshelion, \r\n2017). Adaptation by conventional breeding requires making rapid \r\nincremental changes in the best germplasm to keep pace with the \r\nenvironment (Millet et al., 2016; Atlin et al., 2017; Cobb et al., 2019). \r\nFurther improvements would be difficult without in situ and ex situ\r\nconservation of plant genetic resources to maintain critical germplasm \r\nfor breeding (Dempewolf et al., 2014; Castaneda-Alvarez et al., 2016)."


id: 72a2a5535df90f3f85fcec447b4f8f7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"Globally, there is a notable lack of programmes aimed specifically at \r\nbreeding for climate resilience in fruits and vegetables, although there \r\nhave been calls to begin this process (Kole et al., 2015). Breeding for \r\nclimate resilience in vegetables has great potential given the range \r\nof crop species available. Tolerance to abiotic stress is reasonably \r\nadvanced in pulses (Araujo et  al., 2015; Varshney et  al., 2018), but \r\nexamples of translation to commercial cultivars are still limited \r\n(Varshney et  al., 2018; Varshney et  al., 2019). The infrastructure for \r\ngermplasm collection, maintenance, testing and breeding lags behind \r\nthat of major crops (partly because of the large number of species \r\ninvolved) (Keatinge et al., 2016; Atlin et al., 2017)."


id: 88c8cbd123eeaf59f0c09b8d4b2cb29c
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"Despite the advances in sequencing, phenotyping remains a significant \r\nbottleneck (Ghanem et al., 2015; Negin and Moshelion, 2017; Araus \r\nand Kefauver, 2018); the emergence of high-throughput phenotyping \r\nplatforms may reduce this bottleneck in future. Emerging modern \r\nbiotechnology such as gene/genome editing may in the future increase \r\nthe ability to better translate genetic improvements into the field "


id: 345d3cb2a3ec81e486d196992864cf8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"Participatory plant breeding (PPB) facilitates interaction between \r\nIndigenous and local knowledge systems and scientific research and \r\ncan be an effective adaptation strategy in generating varieties well \r\nadapted to the socio-ecological context and climate hazards (high \r\nconfidence) (Table  5.5, Westengen and Brysting, 2014; Humphries \r\net al., 2015; Anderson et al., 2016; Migliorini et al., 2016; Leitao et al., \r\n2019; Ceccarelli and Grando, 2020; Singh et al., 2020)."


id: 32ecd78171f33db50ab4de6be053cb29
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"in shorter value chains, lower insurance premiums and payments \r\nfor ecosystem services that include diversification (Sorensen et  al., \r\n2015; Guerra et al., 2017; Nehring et al., 2017; Valencia et al., 2019). \r\nIntegrated landscape approaches involving multiple stakeholders \r\n(Reed et  al., 2016) including urban governments can support \r\ndiversification at a regional scale through public and private sector \r\ninvestment in extension services, regional supply chains, agritourism \r\nand other incentives for diversified landscapes (Milder et  al., 2014; \r\nMunke et  al., 2015; Sorensen et  al., 2015; Perez-Marin et  al., 2017; \r\nCaron et al., 2018; 5.14.1.5)."


id: d765b23fb7872913a97d8c3f8979f070
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"Livestock systems may be classified as industrial (monogastric, \r\nruminant), grassland-based in which crop-based agriculture is absent \r\nor minimal (pastoralism, agro-pastoralism), mixed rainfed combining \r\nmostly rainfed cropping with livestock, and mixed irrigated systems \r\nwith a significant proportion of irrigated cropping interspersed with \r\nlivestock. Livestock systems are located widely across all regions of the \r\nworld, and animal-sourced food provides humans with 39% of their \r\nprotein and 18% of their calorie intake (FAO, 2019 f). Some 400 million \r\npeople depend on livestock for a substantial part of their livelihood \r\n(Robinson et al., 2011)."


id: a85cf82973ac1328d9d06f0bf03188e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24015
content:
"Climate change affects livestock productivity and production in many \r\nways (Porter et  al., 2014; Rojas-Downing et  al., 2017). Evidence is \r\naccumulating that rising temperatures are increasing heat stress in \r\ndomestic species and affecting productivity (high confidence) (Das \r\net al., 2016b; Godde et al., 2021)."


id: cbd5499462b01cdc8205e506a62c52dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Diversification improves regulating and supporting ecosystem services \r\nsuch as pest control, soil fertility and health, pollination, nutrient \r\ncycling, water regulation and buffering of temperature extremes (high \r\nconfidence) (Barral et al., 2015; Prieto et al., 2015; Tiemann et al., 2015; \r\nSchulte et al., 2017; Beillouin et al., 2019a; Dainese et al., 2019; Kuyah \r\net al., 2019; Tamburini et al., 2020), which can in turn mediate yield \r\nstability and reduced risk of crop loss according to socio-ecological \r\ncontexts and time since adoption (high confidence) (Prieto et al., 2015; \r\nRoesch-McNally et al., 2018; Sida et al., 2018; Williams et al., 2018; \r\nBirthal and Hazrana, 2019; Degani et al., 2019; Amadu et al., 2020; \r\nBowles et al., 2020; Li et al., 2020; Sanford et al., 2021)."


id: 9cd95dcd49d1530f9738eb17611d209b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"Agroecosystem diversification often has variable impacts depending \r\non crop combination, agro-ecological zone and soil types, and rigorous \r\nassessments of adaptive gains with traditional and locally diversified \r\nsystems and potential trade-offs still need to be conducted across \r\nsocio-ecological contexts.  The quantitative upstanding will assist in \r\nenhancing multiple benefits of diversification tailored for each condition \r\n(Table  5.6). Progress is also needed via breeding and/or agronomy \r\nto adapt underutilised as well as major food crops to diversified \r\nagroecosystems and optimise management of nutrients, pest and \r\ndisease pressure and other socio-ecological constraints (Araujo et al., \r\n2015; Foyer et al., 2016; Adams et al., 2018; Pang et al., 2018)."


id: 3ad67f19dd4d289ad990a9dda772781a
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content:
"Managing for diversity and flexibility at multiple scales is central to \r\ndeveloping adaptive capacity. Policies to support diversification include \r\nshifting subsidies towards diversified systems, public procurement for \r\ndiverse foods for schools and other public institutions, investment "


id: 6d5eeb5f3ac206c1ee663bb1a6a4118c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"temperatures on the smaller ruminants (sheep and goats) are relatively \r\nmuted, compared with large ruminants; goats are better able to cope \r\nwith multiple stressors than sheep (Sejian et al., 2018). Under SSP5-8.5 \r\nto mid-century, land suitability for livestock production will decrease \r\nbecause of increased heat stress prevalence in mid and lower latitudes \r\n(high confidence) (Thornton et al., 2021)."


id: b0d6791aa9d73f11ba1badcd586f5391
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25340
content:
"There is limited evidence of observed distributional changes in \r\nlivestock species due to climate changes. Asian buffalo and yak breeds \r\nin China over the past 50 years have shifted distribution partly because \r\nof increases in heat stress (Wu, 2015; Wu, 2016). Nepalese cattle \r\nnumbers have declined, attributed to increases in the number of hot \r\ndays (Koirala and Shrestha, 2017)."


id: 84a7baf2c7b284f5320aa4b3f7e2c36b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 18398
content:
"Livestock production may account for 30% of all water (blue, green \r\nand grey) used in agriculture (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2010) and can \r\nnegatively affect water quality. Cropland feed production accounts \r\nfor 38% of crop water consumption (Weindl et al., 2017). High-input \r\nlivestock systems may consume more water than grazing or mixed \r\nsystems, though water used per kg beef produced, for example, depends \r\non country, context and system (Noya et al., 2019). In systems where \r\nfeed production is rainfed, livestock and crop water productivity may \r\nbe comparable (Haileslassie et al., 2009). Direct water consumption by \r\nlivestock is <1-2% of global water consumption (Hejazi et al., 2014). \r\nRising temperatures increase animal water needs, potentially affecting \r\naccess of herders and livestock to drinking water sources (Florke et al., \r\n2018)."


id: d7b010c1bbe377b537637c7315d5e0c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 31462
content:
"Climate variability has been identified as the primary cause of \r\nvegetation cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau since 2000 (Lehnert \r\net  al., 2016). Increasing inter-annual variability is a driver of farm \r\nextensification in Mediterranean dairy systems (Dono et al., 2016). In \r\nAustralian rangelands (Godde et al., 2019) and dairy systems (Harrison \r\net  al., 2016; Harrison et  al., 2017), increasing rainfall variability \r\ncontributes more to stocking rate and profitability variability than \r\nchanges in mean rainfall."


id: d40e6e557174e01c0afc9654c846d89d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30880
content:
"Climate change is affecting the transmission of vector-borne diseases \r\n(Hutter et al., 2018; Semenza and Suk, 2018) and parasites (Rinaldi \r\net al., 2015) in high latitudes (high confidence). Different processes link \r\nclimate change and infectious diseases in domesticated livestock. Some \r\nshow a positive association between temperature and range expansion \r\nof arthropod vectors that spread the bluetongue virus. Others show a \r\ncontraction, such as tsetse flies that transmit trypanosome parasites \r\nof several livestock species. Positive associations have been found \r\nbetween temperature and the spread of pathogens such as anthrax, \r\nand droughts and ENSO weather patterns and Rift Valley fever \r\noutbreaks in East Africa (Bett et al., 2017). Observed range expansion \r\nof economically important tick disease vectors in North America \r\n(Sonenshine, 2018) and Africa (Nyangiwe et al., 2018) are presenting \r\nnew public health threats to humans and livestock."


id: 80ddb4755ce38ad4727a44aaf37b078
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17799
content:
"There is limited evidence about the role of livestock in addressing \r\nsocioeconomic vulnerability. Although agriculture in parts of North \r\nAmerica has become more sensitive to climate over the last 50 years, \r\nlivestock have helped to moderate this effect, being less sensitive to \r\nincreasing temperatures than some specialised crop systems (Ortiz\u0002Bobea et  al., 2018). Increasing frequency and severity of droughts \r\nwill affect the future economic viability of grassland-based livestock \r\nproduction in the North American Great Plains (Briske et  al., 2021). \r\nPurchasing more forage and selling more livestock have reduced \r\nhousehold vulnerability in semi-arid parts of China over the last "


id: 28e6ec926d030b6b76e19dc24ad27454
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 3868
content:
"35  years (Bai et  al., 2019). A greater focus on sheep production \r\naway from cropping has increased the resilience of farming systems \r\nin Western Australia in low-rainfall years, although with mixed \r\nenvironmental effects (Ghahramani and Bowran, 2018). More insights \r\nare needed as to where and how livestock can affect the vulnerability \r\nof farmers and pastoralists."


id: 27cb8412aedda15c8a480225a8bd0fe8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 3670
content:
"and large declines in western Africa (-46%) and Australia (-17%). \r\nThe cumulative effects of impacts on forage productivity globally are \r\nprojected to result in 7-10% declines in livestock numbers by 2050 for \r\nwarming of ~2degC, representing a loss of livestock assets ranging from \r\nUSD 10 to 13 billion (Boone et al., 2018). Changes to African grassland \r\nproductivity will have substantial, negative impacts on the livelihoods \r\nof >180 million people."


id: ef82c9675f0b7adfc594a986d9286482
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 35174
content:
"Increases in above-ground NPP, and woody cover at the expense \r\nof grassland, are projected in some of the tropical and subtropical \r\ndrylands (Doherty et al., 2010; Ravi et al., 2010; Saki et al., 2018), in \r\nMediterranean wood pastures (Rolo and Moreno, 2019) and in the \r\nnorthern Great Plains of North America (Klemm et al., 2020). Godde \r\net al. (2021) projected that woody encroachment would occur on 51% \r\nof global rangeland area by 2050 under RCP8.5. The future makeup of \r\ngrasslands under climate change is uncertain, given the variation in \r\nresponses of the component species, though this variation may provide \r\na climate buffer (Jones, 2019) (low confidence). C4 grass species are \r\nregarded as less responsive to elevated carbon dioxide than C3 species, \r\nthough this is not always the case (Reich et al., 2018)."


id: 49d861c0b182df222b71c832d010a2d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 9017
content:
"Vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change will be shaped \r\nby existing burdens of ill health and is expected to be highest in poor \r\nand socioeconomically marginalised populations (high agreement,\r\nlimited evidence) (Labbe et al., 2016). In addition to projected changes \r\nin infectious disease burdens, labour capacity in a warming climate is \r\nanticipated to decrease further, beyond the >5% drop estimated since \r\n2000 (Watts et al., 2018). Loss of labour capacity may greatly increase \r\nthe vulnerability of subsistence livestock keepers (high agreement, \r\nlimited evidence)."


id: 6f7e997de965a7393c3fbc50a66c8386
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 15172
content:
"There are other interactions between climate change and grazing \r\neffects on grasslands. Li (2018a) reported strong negative responses \r\nof NPP and species richness to 4degC warming, a 50% precipitation \r\ndecrease, and high grazing intensity. Changes in grassland composition \r\nwill inevitably change their suitability for different grazing animal \r\nspecies, with switches from herbaceous grazers such as cattle to goats \r\nand camels to take advantage of increases in shrubland (Kagunyu \r\nand Wanjohi, 2014). Rangeland feed quality may also be reduced via \r\ninvasive species of lower quality than native species (Blumenthal et al., \r\n2016)."


id: 5d16f78f10c48aafbbd93be9d25122f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 12163
content:
"Warming and water deficits impair the quality and digestibility of a \r\nC4 tropical forage grass, Panicum maximum, because of increases in \r\nleaf lignin (Habermann et al., 2019). A metanalysis by Dellar (2018) \r\nof climate change impacts on European pasture yield and quality \r\nfound an increase in above-ground dry weight under increased \r\nCO2 concentrations for forbs, legumes, graminoids and shrubs \r\nwith reductions in N concentrations in all plant functional groups. \r\nTemperature increases will increase yields in alpine and northern areas \r\n(+82.6%) but reduce N concentrations for shrubs (-13.6%) and forbs \r\n(-18.5%)."


id: 92cf607582bca3b25030a1aec9fe8660
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20614
content:
"There is limited evidence on future impact of climate change on \r\nlivestock production, particularly in LMICs (Rivera-Ferre et al., 2016)."


id: 35d161b516e1b605116f53288ae50517
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 5880
content:
"Uncertainties persist regarding estimates of net primary productivity \r\n(NPP) in grazing lands (Fetzel et  al., 2017; Chen et  al., 2018b), so \r\nestimation of climate change impacts on grasslands is challenging. \r\nMean global annual NPP is projected to decline 10 gC m-2 yr-1 in \r\n2050 under RCP8.5, although herbaceous NPP is projected to increase \r\nslightly (Boone et al., 2018; see Figure 5.11). Similar estimates were \r\nmade by Havlik et  al. (2014): large increases in projected NPP in \r\nhigher northern latitudes (21% increase in the USA and Canada) "


id: 9830ad6613219db8943ee5e1fe5eb038
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 21455
content:
"Projected plant responses in the rangelands to enhanced CO2 fertilization\r\nChanges in 2050 under RCP8.5 relative to 1971-2000"


id: 74986e3f86d1ec4ac2dc056853b5d8c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 15939
content:
"Figure 5.11 |  Regional percent changes in land cover and soil carbon from ensemble simulation results in 2050 under emissions scenario RCP8.5 compared \r\nwith 1971-2000. Plant responses were enhanced by CO2 fertilisation. The larger chart (lower left) shows mean changes for all rangelands, and all charts are scaled to -60% to \r\n+60% change. Shown are annual net primary productivity (ANPP), herbaceous net primary productivity (HNPP), bare ground, herbaceous (herb), shrub, and tree cover, SOC (soil \r\ncarbon), above-ground live biomass and below-ground live biomass. Regions as defined by the United Nations Statistics Division. The bar for above-ground live biomass in Western \r\nAsia (*) is truncated and is 82% (Boone et al., 2018)."


id: 70dbc817eae1b219a5b1030dc0f61d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15388
content:
"stress in grazing animals as well as reduced meat and milk production \r\n(quality and quantity) (high confidence, medium evidence)."


id: fa219b7fbe85ce35e8f42b3c24eff04a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36874
content:
"Recent research confirms the seriousness of the heat stress issue\r\n(medium evidence, high agreement). Considerable increases are \r\nprojected during this century in the number of 'extreme stress' days per \r\nyear for cattle, chicken, goat, pig and sheep populations with SSP5-8.5 \r\nbut many fewer with SSP1-2.6 (Thornton et al., 2021: Figure 5.12; see \r\nCross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in this chapter). Resulting impacts \r\non livestock production and productivity may be large, particularly for \r\ncattle throughout the tropics and subtropics and for goats in parts \r\nof Latin America and much of Africa and Asia. Pigs are projected to \r\nbe particularly affected in the mid-latitudes of Europe, East Asia and "


id: 88c1586058fcb877a28d074c66ecbbbf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 19050
content:
"Figure 5.12 |  Change in the number of days per year above 'extreme stress' values from the early 21st century (1991-2010) to end of century (2081-2100), \r\nestimated under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 using the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). Mapped for species current global distribution (Gilbert et al., 2018) (grey areas, \r\nno change). (Thornton et al., 2021), Also see Annex I: Global to Regional Atlas."


id: 57d5a120b114537c87ad5cc777fb7e8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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content:
"geographical ranges of arthropod vectors such as Culicoides imicola, \r\nwhich transmits the bluetongue virus. A 1-in-20-year bluetongue out\u0002break at present-day temperatures is projected to increase in frequen\u0002cy to 1-in-5 to 1-in-7 years by the 2050s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, \r\nalthough animal movement restrictions can prevent devastating out\u0002breaks (Jones et al., 2019)."


id: 77db40f8796027e7e412fbcbd5adf87a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 16414
content:
"In many LMICs, poultry contribute significantly to rural livelihoods, \r\nincluding via modest improvements in nutritional outcomes of house\u0002hold children (de Bruyn et al., 2018). Rural poultry are generally as\u0002sumed to be hardy and well adapted to stressful environments, but \r\nlittle information exists regarding their performance under warmer \r\nclimates or interactions with other production challenges (Nyoni et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 69c9a4bbf9edd0da0e25ecda458691e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14244
content:
"The prevalence and occurrence of some livestock diseases are positively \r\nassociated with extreme weather events (high confidence). There are \r\nhigh risks of future Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks under both RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5 this century in East Africa and beyond (Taylor et al., 2016; \r\nMweya et al., 2017)."


id: 15d2012a4576085dd0136a9b6a791d59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 955
content:
"The impacts of climate change on livestock diseases remain highly un\u0002certain (medium evidence, high agreement). Bett et al. (2017) showed \r\npositive associations between rising temperature and expansion of the "


id: 99f0692e98a2a33e821e1007518fee80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 21745
content:
"Few studies explicitly consider the biotic and abiotic factors that \r\ninteract additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence \r\nhost-pathogen dynamics (Cable et al., 2017). Integrative concepts that \r\naim to improve the health of people, animals and the environment such \r\nas One Health may offer a framework for enhancing understanding \r\nof these complex interactions (Zinsstag et  al., 2018). Much remains \r\nunknown concerning disease transmission dynamics under a warming \r\nclimate (Heffernan, 2018), highlighting the need for effective \r\nmonitoring of livestock disease (Brito et al., 2017; Hristov et al., 2018)."


id: 9007b35fd9b9d47c96227e0d396841ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 20190
content:
"Water resources for livestock may decrease in places because of \r\nincreased runoff and reduced groundwater resources, as well as \r\ndecreased groundwater availability in some environments (AR5). \r\nIncreased temperatures will cause changes in river flow and the amount \r\nof water stored in basins, potentially leading to increased water stress \r\nin dry areas such as parts of the Volta River Basin (Mul et al., 2015). \r\nToure (2017) estimated decreases in groundwater recharge rates of \r\n49% and of stored groundwater by 24% to the 2030s in the Klela \r\nBasin in Mali under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with potentially serious \r\nconsequences for water availability for livestock and irrigation."


id: 41cf53bac214311988da1c9562535d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 7754
content:
"Water intake by livestock is related to species, breed, animal size, age, \r\ndiet, animal activity, temperature and physiological status of animals \r\n(Henry et al., 2018). Direct water use by cattle may increase by 13% for \r\na temperature increase of 2.7degC in a subtropical region (Harle et al., \r\n2007). Changes in water availability may arise because of decreased \r\nsupply or increased competition from other sectors. Availability \r\nchanges may be accompanied by shifts in water quality, such as \r\nincreased levels of microorganisms and algae, that can negatively \r\naffect livestock health (Naqvi et  al., 2015). In arid lands, projected \r\ndecreases in water availability will severely compromise reproductive \r\nperformance and productivity in sheep (Naqvi et al., 2017). In higher\u0002input livestock systems, water costs may increase substantially owing \r\nto increased competition for water (Rivera-Ferre et al., 2016)."


id: 8d2abf09a210493ffb1c3f7774c4153d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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vector_id: 19735
content:
"Livestock adaptation options are increasingly being studied with \r\nmethods such as agent-based household models (Hailegiorgis et  al., \r\n2018), household models that disaggregate climate scenarios as \r\nwell as differentiate farms of varying types and farmer attributes \r\n(Descheemaeker et al., 2018), new meso-scale grassland models (Boone \r\net al., 2018) and modelling approaches that capture decision making at \r\nthe farm level for sample populations (Henderson et al., 2018)."


id: a0c6bec8a5edcab0d3d57493ed650f66
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22843
content:
"The adaptations that livestock keepers have been undertaking in Asia \r\n(Hussain et  al., 2016; Li et  al., 2017) and Africa (Belay et  al., 2017; \r\nOuedraogo et al., 2017) are largely driven by their perceptions of climate \r\nchange. Keeping two or more species of livestock simultaneously on "


id: 4bdd445a574c981889dde063ca235734
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9353
content:
"building-design options (Chang-Fung-Martel et al., 2017; Godde et al., \r\n2021). In utero exposure to heat stress may increase adaptive capacity \r\nin later life, though the underlying mechanisms are incompletely \r\nunderstood (Skibiel et  al., 2018). For confined livestock systems in \r\ntemperate regions, the economic consequences of adapting to heat \r\nstress are still being quantified."


id: 5154e5143232d19a22a17e5336ee9f3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10252
content:
"the same farm can confer economic and sustainability benefits to \r\nEuropean farmers (Martin et al., 2020). Some livestock producers are \r\nchanging and diversifying management practices, improving access to \r\nwater sources, increasing uptake of off-farm activities, trading short\u0002term profits for longer-term resilience benefits and migrating out of \r\nthe area (Hussain et al., 2016; Berhe et al., 2017; Merrey et al., 2018; \r\nThornton et al., 2018; Espeland et al., 2020). Others are adopting more \r\nclimate-resilient livestock species such as camels (Watson et al., 2016a), \r\nusing climate forecasts at differing time scales, and benefitting from \r\ninnovative livestock insurance schemes, though challenges remain in \r\ntheir use at scale (Dayamba et al., 2018; Hansen et al., 2019a; Johnson \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 9483fe1d28289a6f1431e1e553ac2a98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20879
content:
"New research is investigating the prospects for accelerating traditional \r\nand novel breeding processes for animal traits that may be effective in \r\nimproving livestock adaptation as well as production (Stranden et al., \r\n2019; Barbato et al., 2020). Even if the technical challenges of using \r\nnew tools such as CRISPR-Cas9 for genome editing in livestock are \r\novercome, the granting of societal approval to operate in this research \r\nspace may be elusive (Herrero et al., 2020; Menchaca et al., 2020)."


id: 86a87b52507312ff978bb9bfda63caec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18725
content:
"In West Africa, cattle and small ruminant producers and traders are \r\nchanging strategies in response to emerging market opportunities as \r\nwell as to multiple challenges including climate change (Gautier et al., \r\n2016; Ouedraogo et al., 2017). Niles (2017) found that reduced food \r\ninsecurity in 12  countries was associated with livestock ownership, \r\nproviding cash for food purchases. Livestock ownership or switching \r\nto smaller, local breeds does not automatically translate into positive \r\nnutrition outcomes for women and children, although it may if \r\ncommunities see such animals as suitable for husbandry by women \r\n(Chanamuto and Hall, 2015); the relationship is complex (Nyantakyi\u0002Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 2015; Dumas et al., 2018)."


id: f7beb156711336a6bc9a42058a8d5952
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36496
content:
"Indigenous knowledge has a role to play in helping livestock \r\nkeepers adapt (medium confidence), though the transferability of \r\nthis knowledge is often unclear. Pastoralists' local knowledge of \r\nclimate and ecological change can complement scientific research \r\n(Klein et al., 2014), and local knowledge can be mobilised to inform \r\nadaptation decision making (Klenk et  al., 2017). While Indigenous \r\nweather forecasting systems among pastoralists in Ethiopia (Balehegn \r\net al., 2019; Iticha and Husen, 2019) and Uganda (Nkuba et al., 2020) \r\nare effective, synergies can be gained by combining traditional \r\nand modern knowledge to help pastoralists adapt. Sophisticated "


id: f3d395d10572c1879a0d6a4733587fe5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35877
content:
"Options for adapting domestic livestock systems to increased exposure \r\nto heat stress (Table 5.7) include breeding and crossbreeding strategies, \r\nspecies switching, low-cost shading alternatives and ventilation and "


id: 6f592f33589928dae310e780da30f868
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15148
content:
"knowledge of feed resources among agro-pastoralists in West Africa \r\nis being used to increase system resilience (Naah and Braun, 2019). \r\nUnderstanding local knowledge for adaptation can present research \r\nchallenges, for which new multi-disciplinary research methods may be \r\nneeded (Reyes-Garcia et al., 2016; Roncoli et al., 2016). In particular, \r\nthe complexities of knowledge, practice, power, local governance and \r\npolitics need to be addressed (Hopping et al., 2016; Scoville-Simonds \r\net al., 2020)."


id: b63c7509aa806769918fd30a26748b16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26199
content:
"The IPCC AR5 stated that there is high confidence that numerous \r\nplants and animal species have already migrated, changed their \r\nabundance, and shifted their seasonal activities as a result of climate \r\nchange (Settele et al., 2014). The report highlighted the widespread \r\ndeaths of trees in many forested areas of the world. Forest die back \r\ncould significantly affect wood production among other impacts."


id: d71b9aa2fb0b51e8c43e7731762794c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31356
content:
"The SRCCL (Barbosa et al., 2019) concluded that climate change will \r\nhave positive and negative effects on forests, with varying regional \r\nand temporal patterns. For example, the SRCCL noted the increasing \r\nproductivity in high-latitude forests such as those in Siberia. In contrast, \r\nnegative impacts are already being observed in other regions such as \r\nincreasing tree mortality due to wildfires."


id: 569a5daeb48510c05bb4ee538e2dd1dd
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:03
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"are highly vulnerable in a low-greenhouse-gas-concentration scenario, \r\nand 32.6% of the global forest ecoregions are highly vulnerable in \r\na high-greenhouse-gas-concentration scenario (Wang et  al., 2019a). \r\nFurthermore, a recent synthesis of the literature suggests that climate \r\nchange will result in younger and shorter forests globally (McDowell \r\net al., 2020). In Asia, a systematic review of climate change impacts \r\non tropical forests revealed that future climate may lead to changes \r\nin species distribution and forest structure and composition as well as \r\nphenology (Deb et al., 2018)."


id: 14cd13e08f9ca53f77663935c57658dc
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"Increasingly, climate impacts on the recovery of forests after disturbance \r\nare observed: using data from the past 20 years and 33 wildfires, it \r\nhas been shown that post-fire regeneration of Pinus ponderosa and \r\nPseudotsuga menziesii in the western USA has declined because of \r\nclimate change and increased severity of fires (Davis et  al., 2019). \r\nHowever, the observed patterns of post-disturbance recovery vary with \r\nregion, with reduced tree regeneration reported for the western USA \r\n(Stevens-Rumann and Morgan, 2019; Turner et al., 2019) but robust \r\nrecovery observed in Canada (White et al., 2017) and Central Europe \r\n(medium confidence) (Senf et al., 2019)."


id: cbf1e322d32fbbe31c01b3759fd02e22
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"Also, the distribution and traits of trees are increasingly influenced by \r\nclimate change, with impacts for local ecosystem service supply. In the \r\nUSA, a study of 86 tree species/groups over the past three decades \r\nshowed that more tree species have shifted westward (73%) than \r\npoleward (62%) in their abundance (Fei et al., 2017). This was due more \r\nto changes in moisture availability than to changes in temperature. \r\nAs climate has warmed, trees are growing faster with longer growing \r\nseasons. However, a study of forests in Central Europe revealed that \r\nwood density has decreased since the 1870s (Pretzsch et al., 2018). \r\nThis means that increasing tree growth might not directly translate to \r\nincreased total biomass and carbon sequestration."


id: 38dd21f3922f2268141ea38c6c59fb86
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"AR5 stated that other stressors such as human-driven land use change \r\nand pollution will continue to be the main causes of forest cover change \r\nin the next three decades (Settele et al., 2014). In the second half of \r\nthis century, it was projected that climate change will be a strong \r\nstressor of change in forest ecosystems. Many forest species may not \r\nbe able to move fast enough to adjust to new climate conditions. In \r\nsome cases, a warmer climate could lead to extinction of species."


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"The SR15 concluded that limiting warming to 1.5degC will be more \r\nfavourable to terrestrial ecosystems, including forests, relative to a 2degC \r\nwarming (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). In general, a 2degC warming could \r\nlead to two times more area of biome shifts compared with a 1.5degC \r\nwarming. As a result, keeping a cooler average global temperature \r\nwill lead to lower extinction risks. The special report supports the AR5 \r\nconclusion that a warmer planet will impact wide swaths of forests \r\nadversely. For example, higher temperatures will promote fire, drought \r\nand insect disturbances. Consistent with AR5, SRCCL projected that \r\ntree mortality will increase with climate change (Barbosa et al., 2019). \r\nIn addition, forests will be more exposed to extreme events such as \r\nextreme heat, droughts and storms. The incidence of forest fires will \r\nlikewise increase."


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"Additional evidence since the above reports were published supports \r\ntheir overall conclusions. For example, at the global scale, modelling the \r\nvulnerability of 387 forest ecoregions under future climate change (to \r\n2080 using the average of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and \r\nRCP4.5 and 8.5) across different biomes, biogeographical realms and \r\nconservation statuses showed that 8.8% of global forest ecoregions "


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"The increasing supply induces lower global timber prices (medium \r\nconfidence). Studies estimate that the prices will decline between \r\n1% and 38% in 2100 with respect to a no climate change scenario \r\ndepending on the model and the climate change scenario assumed \r\n(climate change is represented as a change in GHG concentration, \r\nglobal average temperature or radiative forcing) (Favero et al., 2018; \r\nFavero et  al., 2021). Clearly, further studies are needed considering \r\na wider set of vegetation and climate models and incorporating the \r\nimpacts of extreme events (such as droughts and wildfires)."


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"a strong natural thinning effect, with different magnitudes across \r\nspecies (Claeys et al., 2019)."


id: 2b73fc0eab0dc7b0c78946b1e78dd8dc
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"On a global and regional scale, there is limited evidence and high \r\nagreement (medium confidence) that climate change will increase \r\nglobal and regional supply of timber and other forest products. To date, \r\nthere are eight studies assessing the total economic impacts of climate \r\nchange on the forestry sector at the global level. Some of them have \r\nassumed only flow effects of climate change by using the projected \r\nchanges in yields of forest types from integrated economic models \r\n(Perez-Garcia et  al., 1997; Perez-Garcia et  al., 2002; Buongiorno, \r\n2015), while other studies have assumed both flow and stock effects \r\nby accounting for changes in forest yields, die back effects and biome \r\nmigration (Sohngen et al., 2001; Lee and Lyon, 2004; Tian et al., 2016; \r\nFavero et al., 2018; Favero et al., 2021)."


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"There are a number of national and regional scale studies exploring \r\nthe impact of climate change on yields and markets of wood products, \r\nwith mixed results. In Finland, it is projected that timber yield in the \r\nnorth will increase in Scots pine and birch stands by 33-145% and \r\n42-123%, compared with the current climate, depending on the \r\nGCM and thinning regime using a 90-year rotation (10 individual \r\nGCM projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios) \r\n(ALRahahleh et  al., 2018). However, in Norway spruce stands, yield \r\ncould decline by up to 35%, under GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5 and increase \r\nby up to 39%, under CNRM-CM5 RCP8.5, compared with the current \r\nclimate."


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"In Germany, timber harvest was projected to increase slightly (<10%) \r\nin 2045 using the process-based forestry model (4C) driven by three \r\nmanagement strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a \r\nbaseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios \r\n(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) (Gutsch et  al., 2018). Similarly, average \r\nproduction of pulpwood in slash pine stands in the southeastern USA \r\nare projected to increase by 7.5 m3\r\n ha-1 for all climatic scenarios using \r\nthe Physiological Processes Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth \r\nmodel by 2100 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; CanESM2) (Susaeta and Lal, 2018)."


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"Indigenous and local people have long histories of adaptation to climate hazards in forests (see Eriksen and Hankins, 2014; Neale et al., \r\n2019; Bourke et al., 2020; Long et al., 2020; Williamson, 2021 for notable examples in Australia and North America). In this section, we \r\npresent a North American example of an indigenous adaptation practice developed by the Karuk Tribe in northern California. The Karuk \r\nClimate Adaptation Plan focuses on the use of cultural fire as climate adaptation, places a central importance on restoring human \r\necological caretaking responsibilities, and emphasises the need for collaboration, public education and policy advocacy to achieve these \r\noutcomes."


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"The Karuk Climate Adaptation Plan utilises a combination of Western science and Karuk traditional ecological knowledge. The plan \r\ncentres on 22 focal species as cultural indicators as cues for human responsibilities and the particular techniques of fire application \r\nacross seven habitat management zones (e.g., multiple forest types as well as riverine, riparian and montane systems). These adaptations \r\nrange from specific prescriptions for the use of fire to lower river temperatures in acute scenarios (David et al., 2018), to protocols for \r\ntreatment of grasslands and the use of high elevation meadows as fuel breaks. The plan also includes chapters on adaptations for tribal \r\nsovereignty, the mental and physical health effects of the changing climate and the protection of critical tribal infrastructure."


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"One aspect of Indigenous fire knowledge featured in the Karuk Climate Adaptation Plan is the culture-centric perspective on vegetation \r\nzones which are organised in relation to the elevation band in which smoke inversions occur (Figure Box 5.6.1). Within this system, \r\nburn timing follows a gradient that tracks the reproductive life cycles of season and elevational migrant species, the calving of elk and \r\nthe nesting of birds. Within this system, elevational migrants are indicators of when to stop burning at one location and move upslope, \r\nfollowing receding snows."


id: a0fd267e293b87d44cd7c2844b69b75f
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"The plan also calls for the restoration of Indigenous fire science in emergency scenarios such as when rivers become too hot for salmon. \r\nWith such fires localised, smoke inversions cool water temperatures through a variety of mechanisms, including shading river systems and \r\nreducing evapo-transpiration, thereby increasing stream flow (David et al., 2018)."


id: bb5fdb06f5b08ee67289fdfbf4037108
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"(Keenan, 2015). Such partnerships will lead to a shared understanding \r\nof climate-related challenges and more effective decisions. Forest \r\nmanagers in some countries of the world seem to have high awareness \r\nof climate change (van Gameren and Zaccai, 2015; Seidl et al., 2016; \r\nSousa-Silva et  al., 2016). However, they need more information on \r\nhow they can adjust their practices in response to climate change. \r\nInstitutional and policy context needs to be considered to facilitate \r\nadaptation by forest managers (Sousa-Silva et  al., 2016; Andersson \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 604c4038a716ab3671f557e849ea0da7
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"AR5 notes that natural ecosystems have built-in adaptation ability \r\n(Settele et  al., 2014). However, this capacity will not be enough to \r\nprevent loss of forest ecosystem services because of projected climate \r\nchange in this century under RCP6.0 and 8.5. Management actions \r\ncould reduce the risks of impacts to forest ecosystems but only up to \r\na certain point."


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"studies highlight that the lead times for adaptation in forestry are \r\nlong and that some vulnerabilities might remain also after adaptation \r\nmeasures have been implemented. Furthermore, the costs and benefits \r\nof adaptation measures relative to other goals of sustainable forest \r\nmanagement, such as the conservation of biological diversity, have \r\nto be considered (Felton et al., 2016; Zimova et al., 2020; see Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 7.5 Adaptation Response Options)."


id: 97da6029a223f58681f7dddbe9d6c874
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"5.6.3.2 Linking adaptation and mitigation through Reducing \r\nDeforestation and Forest Degradation plus"


id: da8278e7c4c0bc022c23395f8e0a7ea8
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"Reducing Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus (REDD+) is \r\na climate mitigation strategy which could also provide important \r\nclimate change adaptation co-benefits; for example, sustainable forest \r\nmanagement could provide long term livelihoods to local communities \r\nand enhance resilience to climate risks (Turnhout et al., 2017). However, \r\nmajor challenges related to REDD+ implementation and forest use \r\nremain such that it has not been implemented successfully at scale \r\n(Table 5.8)."


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"Natural products such as medicinal plants, wild food (plants, animals, \r\nmushrooms) and resins (e.g., gum arabic and frankincense) have high \r\ncommercial value and contribute an important source of livelihood \r\nin some regions. One in six persons globally live in or near forests, \r\nand many depend on forest resources for some of their livelihood and \r\nneeds, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (Vira et  al., \r\n2016; Newton et al., 2020). The FAO has estimated that in 2011 non\u0002wood forest products, including medicinal plants, contributed over \r\n88 billion USD to the global economy (FAO, 2014). Greater diversity \r\nin local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge of natural resources \r\nsupports resilience in the face of hazards, especially in environments \r\nwith high levels of uncertainty (Berkes et al., 2003; Blanco and Carriere, \r\n2016)."


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"knowledge loss in reducing access to wild food (Anisimov et al., 2001). \r\nAR5 did not address wild foods and other natural products. There is \r\nlarge variation in the importance of wild foods (Powell et al., 2015; \r\nRowland et al., 2017; Dop et al., 2020). A recent survey of 91 countries \r\nfound that 15 reported regular use of wild foods by most of the \r\npopulation, and 26 reported regular use of wild foods by a subsection \r\nof the population (FAO, 2019e). While they contribute little to food \r\nenergy intake, their contribution to nutrition can be significant because \r\nmost wild and forest foods (vegetables, fruits, mushrooms, insects and \r\nmeat) are rich in proteins and micronutrients (Powell et al., 2015). The \r\nimpacts of climate change on wild foods will vary in time and space \r\nand among species."


id: f5f422d86030c34272f3998f0b822524
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"The World Health Organization lists traditional medicine as an essential \r\ncomponent of culturally appropriate healthcare (WHO, 2013). Medicinal \r\nplants make up the primary source of medicine for 70-95% of people \r\nin low- and middle-income countries and are used widely in wealthier \r\ncountries (Applequist et al., 2020). Continued use of medicinal plants \r\nensures millions of rural people have access to effective treatments \r\nfor day-to-day illness and infection and thus improves their health and \r\nresilience to climate change."


id: 19d82e4c74e32f7431dbdc2db3e530d6
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"Indigenous Peoples largely depend on medicinal plants for their \r\nhealthcare need in different parts of the world (de Boer and Cotingting, \r\n2014; Silva et al., 2020). Medicinal and aromatic plants can support \r\nthe economy and generate livelihood options for rural people through \r\npreparing and selling traditional medicine; collecting from wild; \r\nand trade for income generation (Fajinmi et  al., 2017; Zahra et  al., \r\n2020). Income from medicinal plant collection increases livelihood \r\ndiversification, which is widely accepted to improve resilience."


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"Research is limited on the effects of climate change on the distribution, \r\nproductivity or availability of medicinal plants (Applequist et al., 2020), \r\nbut some are facing threats due to climate change (Phanxay et al., 2015; \r\nChirwa et al., 2017; Chitale et al., 2018). Climate change is projected to \r\nimpact some medicinal plant species through changes in temperature, \r\nprecipitation, pests and pathogens; unsustainable harvest of high-value \r\nspecies will significantly exacerbate these impacts (medium evidence,\r\nhigh agreement) (Applequist et  al., 2020). Table  5.9 highlights that \r\nclimate change impacts on medicinal plant species will vary greatly \r\nby species. Medicinal plants that grow in arid environments are also \r\nhighly susceptible to climate-induced change (Applequist et al., 2020). \r\nArctic medicinal species may also be particularly at risk due to climate \r\nchange (Cavaliere, 2009)."


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"Resin and gum are economically important natural products, \r\ncontributing 14-23% total household income in parts of Ethiopia and \r\nSudan (Abtew et al., 2014; Fikir et al., 2016), Cambodia (Sakkhamduang \r\net al.) and India (Tewari et al., 2017). They are an important source of \r\nraw material for many industries. For instance, in Africa, the genera \r\nBoswellia and Commiphora, which provide frankincense and myrrh \r\nresins, provide significant income generation and export value (Tilahun \r\net  al., 2015). Populations of many species that provide gums and \r\nresins are declining under pressure from unsustainable harvesting and \r\ndeforestation, and climate change may threaten them further."


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"Changes in range distribution will interact with detailed local \r\nknowledge and Indigenous knowledge needed to harvest and use \r\nmedicinal plants. Northward range shifts, for example, may mean \r\ncertain plants still exist, but not where they have traditionally been \r\nimportant as medicine, and possibly moving suitable ranges outside of \r\nareas where plants species have sufficient protection (Kaky and Gilbert, \r\n2017). Climate-induced phenological changes are already observed as \r\na threat to some species (Gaira et  al., 2014; Maikhuri et  al., 2018). \r\nOther major climate-induced impacts on medicinal plants will be via \r\nthe phytochemical content and pharmacological properties of medical \r\nplants (Gairola et al., 2010; Das et al., 2016a). Experimental trials have \r\nshown that drought stresses increase phytochemical content, either \r\nby decreasing biomass or increasing metabolites production (high \r\nconfidence) (Selmar and Kleinwachter, 2013; Al-Gabbiesh et al., 2015)."


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"In Sri Lanka, Boswellia serrata Roxb. is critically endangered or \r\npossibly extinct (Weerakoon and Wijesundara 2012). In India, B. \r\nserrata populations are 'vulnerable' (Chaubey et  al., 2015; Brendler \r\net al., 2018), and declining in the Western Ghats (Soumya et al., 2019). \r\nInvasion of Lantana camara and Prosopis juliflora has resulted in \r\npoor regeneration of Commiphorawightii in central India (Jain and \r\nNadgauda, 2013). Other resin-producing species under threat include: \r\nDaemonoropsdraco (dragon's blood resin) in Indonesia (Yetty et  al., \r\n2013; Widianingsih et  al., 2019), Pinus merkusii (tusam) in Sumatra \r\n(Indonesia) (Hartiningtias et al., 2020), Pinus pinaster in Spain, Pinus \r\nmassoniana in China (Genova et  al., 2014; Chen et  al., 2015b) and \r\nPistacia atlantica in Iran (Yousefi et al., 2020)."


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"Wild foods can include both native and introduced species that are not \r\ncultivated or reared but may be under various degrees of management \r\nby humans and may include escapees of species that are cultivated \r\nin some contexts (Powell et  al., 2015). Information on the use and \r\nimportance of wild foods for nutrition is growing but remains limited \r\n(FAO, 2019e). The AR4 covered wild food briefly in the polar regions \r\nand noted the inter-related nature of climate change and Indigenous "


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"Changes to the availability, abundance, access and storage of wild \r\nfoods associated with changing climate are exacerbating high rates of \r\nfood insecurity (high confidence) (Ford, 2009; Beaumier and Ford, 2010; \r\nHerman-Mercer et al., 2019). Wild foods are central to the food systems \r\nof communities throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic (Kuhnlein et al., \r\n1996; Ballew et al., 2006; Kuhnlein and Receveur, 2007; Johnson et al., "


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"Table 5.9 |  Observed and predicted impacts of climate change on selected medicinal plant species."


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"of Indigenous Peoples or local communities across arid regions of \r\nNorth America (Messer, 1972; Kuhnlein and Calloway, 1977; Santos\u0002Fita et al., 2012; Vinyeta et al., 2016), South America (e.g., Argentina; \r\nLadio and Lozada, 2004; Altrichter, 2006; Eyssartier et  al., 2011), \r\nAustralia (Scelza et al., 2014), the Mediterranean Basin (Hadjichambis \r\net al., 2008; Powell et al., 2014), India and the Himalayas (Pingle, 1975; \r\nGupta and Sen, 1980; Delang, 2006; Bhatt et al., 2017)."


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"Wild foods such as baobab, shea and nere from plants and animals \r\nmake an important contribution to diets and nutrition in arid and semi\u0002arid regions of Africa (Boedecker et al., 2014; Lessmeister et al., 2015; \r\nBelanger and Pilling, 2019) and are being impacted by climate change \r\n(Moseley et al., 2015; Sango and Godwell, 2015; Hitchcock, 2016) (see \r\nChapter 9). There has been little published research on the impacts \r\nof climate change on wild food in arid regions of Australia, although \r\nAboriginal elders in one report suggested that climate-related changes \r\nare impacting wild food (Memmott et al., 2013)."


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"Climate-change-induced impacts of access to wild foods are also \r\nof concern in Arctic regions (high confidence). Coastal and inland \r\ncommunities of Alaska found that 60% of climate impacts on food \r\nsecurity listed by hunters were related to access (Brinkman et  al., \r\n2016). Reduced duration, thickness and quality of sea ice are some of \r\nthe most cited impacts of climate change on wild food consumption \r\n(Ford, 2009; Laidler et  al., 2009; Downing and Cuerrier, 2011; \r\nHuntington et al., 2017; Nuttall, 2017; Fawcett et al., 2018; Ford et al., \r\n2018; Markon et al., 2018). Lack of snowfall reduces and delays the \r\nability to travel on land using snowmobiles (Downing and Cuerrier, \r\n2011), impacting safety of travel, time needed and costs of accessing \r\nwild foods (Cold et al., 2020)."


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"Rising temperatures and humidity are also impacting wild food storage \r\nand increasing the risk of food-borne diseases (Cozzetto et al., 2013; \r\nNuttall, 2017; Markon et al., 2018). Changes in AT and humidity can \r\nmean that whale and fish meat no longer dry properly, or meat may \r\nspoil before hunters can get it home (Downing and Cuerrier, 2011; \r\nNuttall, 2017). Traditional permafrost ice cellars are no longer reliable \r\n(Downing and Cuerrier, 2011; Nyland et al., 2017; Herman-Mercer et al., \r\n2019). Climate-related environmental change compounded with social, \r\neconomic, cultural and political change have had complex but overall \r\nnegative impacts on wild foods (Section CCP6.4, Lujan et al., 2018) ."


id: c653b5e8fb98433cd73be0ebbd3bd761
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"Communities across other (non-Arctic) parts of North America and \r\nEurope also report declining availability of wild foods, with climate \r\nchange among the perceived drivers for decline (medium confidence) \r\n(Table 5.10, Serrasolses et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2019a). Even when \r\nclimate change may not always be the primary driver of loss of these \r\nwild food resources, climate may interact with other stressors to \r\nexacerbate loss of wild foods (Lynn et al., 2013; Reo and Parker, 2013)."


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"Wild foods are also impacted by climate change in arid and semi-arid \r\nlandscapes around the world (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Table 5.10). A number of wild species are important traditional foods "


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"Overall capture fishery production has remained relatively static since \r\nthe 1990s, reaching 96.4  million tonnes in 2018, with over 87% of \r\nthe production coming from marine environments and the rest from \r\ninland fisheries (FAO, 2020c). Finfish represent 85% of global marine \r\nseafood production, with small pelagic fishes (anchovies, sardines \r\nand herrings) as the major contributor. Almost 60% of the total \r\nglobal marine catches come from China, Peru, Indonesia, the Russian \r\nFederation, the USA, India, Viet Nam, Japan, Norway and Chile (FAO, \r\n2020c). Inland fisheries are found on every continent other than \r\nAntarctica and provide 158 million people the equivalent of all dietary \r\nanimal protein (McIntyre et  al., 2016). Inland production accounted \r\nfor 12 million tonnes in 2018, with nearly 70% of capture from low\u0002income Asian and African countries (Harrod et al., 2018a)."


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"The aquaculture and fisheries' share of gross domestic product \r\n(GDP) varies mostly from 0.01% to 10% (Cai et  al., 2019), but the \r\nrelative importance in countries' economies and welfare is greater in \r\nseveral low-income countries, especially in many African and Pacific \r\nIsland states. Approximately 60 million people are directly employed \r\nin fisheries value chains, from harvesting to distribution (Vannuccini \r\net al., 2018); around 95% of them are in small-scale fisheries of low\u0002and middle-income countries, and almost half are women."


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"and shallowing stratification of the water column (Cohen et al., 2016). \r\nStill, over 60% of the published reports on directly observed impacts \r\nof climate change on freshwater biota are on salmonids in North \r\nAmerica and Europe, highlighting significant literature gaps for other \r\nfish species and regions (Myers et al., 2017a)."


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"There is low confidence in climate change affecting the nutritious value \r\nof seafood. Contrasting evidence suggests that ocean warming and \r\nacidification could be altering the nutritional quality of commercial \r\nmollusks, primarily by reducing healthy fatty acids content (Tate \r\net al., 2017; Ab Lah et al., 2018; Lemasson et al., 2019), but Coleman \r\n(2019) found no significant changes in a widely distributed coastal \r\nfish species."


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"In terms of food safety, there is high confidence that climate change \r\nincreases the trends in seafood consumption related illnesses due to \r\nbiological agents such as algae-produced toxins, ciguatera and Vibrio\r\n(Cross-Chapter Box  ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Sections  5.11 and 5.12). \r\nIncreased surface water warming changes the occurrence, intensity, \r\nspecies composition and toxicity of marine and freshwater algae and \r\nbacteria, and expansion to areas where they had not been reported \r\nbefore (Botana, 2016; McCabe et al., 2016; Griffith et al., 2019). There \r\nis limited evidence suggesting that risks linked to the bioaccumulation \r\nof chemicals are also of concern, such as neurotoxic methylmercury \r\n(MeHg) and heavy metals, due to water quality and trophic changes \r\ninduced by climate change (Shi et al., 2016; Schartup et al., 2019)."


id: 3a8082bdb7cf159d1397843d62f020eb
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"In the absence of adaptive measures, climate-induced changes in \r\nthe abundances and distributions of fish will impact the provision, \r\nnutrition and livelihood security of many people (high confidence) as \r\nwell as regional and global trade patterns (medium confidence)."


id: b386c6882a3007429d7f1a197b311e20
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"The importance of seafood in food security and nutrition is \r\nincreasing, largely due to its contribution as high-quality food (high \r\nconfidence) (Hicks et  al., 2019), as seafood contains unique long\u0002chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs) and highly bioavailable \r\nessential micronutrients--vitamins (A, B and D) and minerals (calcium, \r\nphosphorus, iodine, zinc, iron and selenium). These compounds, often \r\nnot readily available elsewhere in diets, have beneficial effects for \r\nadult health and child cognitive development (HLPE, 2014). Changes \r\nin marine and freshwater fish production can have significant \r\nconsequences for human nutrition (Colombo et  al., 2020). These \r\nchanges are of particular concern in regions with few nutrition \r\nalternatives, such as low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, \r\nand Central and South America (high confidence) (Ding et al., 2017; \r\nKibria et al., 2017)."


id: ba818629f6c574f804f61aa9f23815e3
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"Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under \r\ncontinuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and \r\npollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate \r\nchange (high confidence) (Section 4.3.5). Declines in dissolved oxygen \r\nin freshwater are 2.75-9.3 times greater than observed in the world's "


id: 75ec651e2f06ae54903ebd67372b1eb7
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"Women play a crucial role along the entire fisheries value chain, \r\nproviding labour force in industrialised and small-scale fisheries all \r\naround the world (FAO, 2020d). For small-scale fisheries alone, women \r\nrepresent about 11% of the labour force, and their activity is generally \r\nin subsistence fisheries, highlighting their role in household food \r\nsecurity (Harper et al., 2020). In general, gendered division of labour \r\ntends to cause lower salaries for women and different perception and \r\nexperience of risk to climate change impacts (high confidence) (Lokuge \r\nand Hilhorst, 2017)."


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"oceans (Jane et al., 2021). These systems have a relatively low buffering \r\ncapacity and are therefore more sensitive to climate-related shocks \r\nand variability (Harrod et al., 2018b). Freshwater faunae are projected \r\nto be highly vulnerable; in the tropics because organisms are closer \r\nto approaching their thermal physiological limits and in the northern \r\nhemisphere (30-50degN) because the rate of temperature change is \r\nfaster (Comte and Olden, 2017). The worldwide spatial confluence of \r\nproductive freshwater fisheries and low food security highlights the \r\ncritical role of rivers and lakes in providing locally sourced, low-cost, \r\nnutritious food sources (McIntyre et al., 2016)."


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"Deltas and other wetland fisheries are extremely vulnerable to climate \r\nchange and home to a large and growing proportion of the world's \r\npopulation. In India, Ghana and Bangladesh, where three of the most \r\npopulated Deltaic systems are located, subsistence fisheries provide \r\n12-60% of the animal protein in people's diets (Lauria et al., 2018)."


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"Local, national, regional and international fisheries are mostly \r\nunderprepared for geographic shifts in marine animals driven by \r\nclimate change over the coming decades (high confidence) (Pinsky \r\net al., 2018; Oremus et al., 2020; Pinsky et al., 2020). With fisheries \r\ndistribution changes, sometimes into areas dedicated to different \r\nhistorical uses or new ventures, the current management regimes \r\nwill face constraining legal frameworks (Farady and Bigford, 2019; \r\nPinsky et al., 2020), which will demand interventions in the form of \r\npolicies, programmes and actions, at multiple scales (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox MOVING PLATE this chapter). Coordinated fisheries management \r\ncan substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate \r\n(Pinsky et al., 2020), but a great deal of political will, capacity building \r\nand collective action will be necessary (high confidence) (Teslic et al., \r\n2017; Burden and Fujita, 2019; Section 5.8.4)."


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"The concern over aquatic food products' safety due to climate change \r\nis increasing (high confidence). A strong positive relationship exists \r\nbetween specific bacterial growth rates and temperature, including \r\npathogenic species of the genera Vibrio, Listeria, Clostridium, \r\nAeromonas, Salmonella, Escherichia and others, whose distributional \r\narea is expanding with changing climate conditions (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Section 5.12.1)."


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"Today, approximately half the world's population (~4  billion out of \r\n7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe \r\nwater scarcity for at least 1  month per year (medium confidence) \r\n(Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable \r\nas they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors \r\n(high confidence). In some cases, this situation results in the total \r\nloss of freshwater fisheries. Examples include diversion of water \r\nfor agriculture, shifts from food provision to recreational fisheries, \r\nconserving biodiversity, and the requirement for high-quality water for \r\ndrinking water supply (Section 5.13, Harrod et al., 2018a)."


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"There is high confidence that climate change is and will continue \r\nto be a threat to the livelihood of millions of fishers, with the most \r\nvulnerable being those with fewer opportunities and less income \r\n(Barange and Cochrane, 2018; Section 3.4.3). The social vulnerability \r\ncan differ largely between locations, even between relatively close \r\ncoastal or inland communities (Bennett et al., 2014; Maina et al., 2016; \r\nNdhlovu et  al., 2017; Martins et  al., 2019) and among inhabitants \r\nwithin a location, depending on factors such as access to other \r\neconomic activities, education, health, adults in the household, and \r\npolitical connections (high confidence) (Senapati and Gupta, 2017; \r\nAbu Samah et al., 2019; Lowe et al., 2019)."


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"There is high confidence that climate change increases the risk of \r\nconflicts due to the redistribution of stocks and their abundance \r\nfluctuations, with subsequent impacts on resource sharing (Spijkers and \r\nBoonstra, 2017; Pinsky et al., 2018; Spijkers et al., 2018; Mendenhall \r\net al., 2020; Pinsky et al., 2020). High vulnerability and lack of adaptive \r\ncapacity to climate change impacts (including fisheries-dependent \r\nlivelihoods, attachment to place, and pre-existing tensions) increase \r\nthe risk of conflicts, including among fishery area users and authorities \r\n(Ndhlovu et  al., 2017; Shaffril et  al., 2017; Spijkers and Boonstra, \r\n2017; Mendenhall et  al., 2020). Similarly, shifts in the distribution \r\nof transboundary fish stocks under climate change alter the current \r\nsharing of resources between countries and create conflicts as well \r\nas new opportunities (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, \r\nSpijkers and Boonstra, 2017; Pinsky et al., 2018)."


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"In terms of food safety, major concerns linked to climate change \r\ninclude the continued trend of increasing HABs, and the quantity of \r\npollutants reaching aquatic systems (Box 3.3; Section 5.11)."


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"Adaptation options in land- and aquatic-based culturing food \r\nproduction systems include both governance actions and changes \r\nin the factors of production (Section  5.4.4, 5.5.4, Reverter et  al., \r\n2020). In contrast, adaptation options in fisheries are primarily \r\nconcentrated in the socioeconomic dimension, especially governance \r\nand management (Brander et al., 2018; Holsman et al., 2019), and \r\ngiven the scale of the problem, there are relatively few intentional, \r\nwell-documented examples of implemented tactical responses (Bell \r\net al., 2020)."


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"to 34.2% in 2017 (FAO, 2020d). There is high confidence that reducing \r\nstresses on marine ecosystems reduces vulnerability to climate \r\nchange and augments resilience (Barange, 2019; Woodworth-Jefcoats \r\net al., 2019; Ogier et al., 2020). Specifically, overfishing is the most \r\ncritical non-climatic driver affecting the sustainability of fisheries, \r\nand therefore improving management could help rebuild fish stocks, \r\nreduce ecosystem impacts and increase the adaptive capacity of \r\nfishing (high confidence); (Barange, 2019; Das et al., 2020). Pursuing \r\nsustainable fisheries practices under a low-emissions scenario would \r\ndecrease risk by 63%; in contrast, under the most extreme RCP8.5, \r\nboth profit and harvest decline relative to today even under the most \r\noptimistic assumptions about global fisheries management reforms \r\n(Gaines et al., 2018; Sumaila et al., 2019; Free et al., 2020)."


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"There is high confidence that, for the freshwater fisheries systems, the \r\nmost immediate adaptation option is the effective linkage of fisheries \r\nmanagement to the adaptation plans of other sectors, especially \r\nwater management (hydropower, irrigation and the commitment to \r\nmaintaining environmental flows) (Harrod et  al., 2018a; Kao et  al., \r\n2020). In some regions, organisations are already addressing this issue; \r\nfor example, The Office of Water (OW) in the USA is aimed at ensuring \r\nthat drinking water is safe while ecosystem is conserved to provide \r\nhealthy habitat for fish, plants and wildlife; however, success strongly \r\ndepends on the possibility of integrating the jurisdictional framework \r\nof different agencies (Poesch et  al., 2016), the implementation of \r\neffective monitoring programmes (Paukert et  al., 2016) and finding \r\nways to incentivise the early restoration of degraded systems (Ranjan, \r\n2020)."


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"Adaptation capacity is limited by the financial capacity of some \r\ncountries (Bindoff et al., 2019). For example, in West African fisheries, \r\nadaptation costs associated with replacing the loss of coastal \r\necosystems and productivity is estimated to require 5-10% of \r\ncountries' GDP (Zougmore et al., 2016). For Pacific Islands and Coastal \r\nTerritories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment from \r\nlocal governments and the private sector (Rosegrant et al., 2016), and \r\nreducing dependence on or finding alternatives to vulnerable marine \r\nresources (Johnson et al., 2020; Mabe and Asase, 2020)."


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"Authors: H. Gurney-Smith (Canada/UK), W. Cheung (Canada), S. Lluch Cota (Mexico), E. Ojea (Spain), C. Parmesan (France/UK/USA), J. \r\nPinnegar (UK) P. Thornton (Kenya/UK), M-F. Racault (UK/France), G. Pecl (Australia), E.A. Nyboer (Canada), K. Holsman (USA), K. Miller \r\n(USA), J. Birkmann (Germany), G. Nelson (USA) and C. Mollmann (Germany)"


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"This Cross-Chapter Box, the 'moving plate', addresses climate-induced shifts and domesticated production suitability of food species \r\nconsumed by people. Marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems are already experiencing species shifts in response to climate change \r\n(very high confidence) (see also Sections 2.4.2.1. and 3.4.3., Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), with subsequent impacts on food \r\nprovisioning services, pests and diseases (high confidence) (see Box 5.8 and Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2). This Box highlights \r\nfood insecurity and malnutrition of vulnerable peoples under climate change for both wild and domesticated aquatic and terrestrial \r\nspecies, and discusses challenges for adaptation and the roles that management (transboundary and ecosystem-based) can play to \r\nenable food security, reduce conflicts and prevent resource over-extraction."


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"limited domesticated livestock production, or in places where shock events such as droughts and floods threaten food supply, forcing \r\nincreased reliance on wild foods including bush meat (Mosberg and Eriksen, 2015; Bodmer et al., 2018). Appropriate management of wild \r\nmeat for reliant peoples under projected climate change will necessitate incorporating social justice elements into conservation and \r\npublic health strategies (see Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7, Friant et al., 2020; Ingram, \r\n2020; Pelling et al., 2021)."


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"(a) Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Ocean sensitivity is calculated from aggregated sensitivities \r\nfrom Blasiak et al. (2017) S1 country data based on number of fishers, fisheries exports, proportions of economically active population working as fishers, total fisheries \r\nlandings and nutritional dependence, which was subsequently re-analysed for each FAO region depicted here. Arrows denote projected average commercial and \r\nartisanal fishing resource shifts in location under RCP2.6 and under RCP8.5 (dark-blue and red arrows, respectively) scenarios by 2100. Text boxes highlight examples \r\nof vulnerabilities (Bell et al., 2018a), conflicts (Miller et al., 2013; Blasiak et al., 2017; Osthagen et al., 2020) or opportunities for marine resource usage (Robinson et al., \r\n2015; Stuart-Smith et al., 2018; Meredith et al., 2019)."


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"(b) Projected changes in the number of extreme heat stress days for cattle from early (1991-2010) to end of century (2081-2100) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, shown \r\nas arrows rooted in the most affected area in each IPCC sub-region pointing to the nearest area of reduced or no extreme heat stress. Arrows are shown only for sub\u0002regions where >1 million additional animals are affected. Areas in green are those with >5000 animals per 0.5deg grid cell in the eary 21st century (Thornton et al., 2021)."


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"In terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, human populations already impacted by poverty and hunger experience greater risk under \r\nclimate change. Future food security will depend on access to other sustainable sources either via transnational agreements or resource/\r\nlivelihood diversification. Sudden shocks across food production systems (Cottrell et al., 2019) can lead to increases in fisheries harvest "


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"Observed impacts on inland systems have generally been site and \r\nregion specific (high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Sainz \r\net  al., 2019; Lebel et  al., 2020). Salinity intrusions into freshwater \r\naquaculture systems have changed oxygen and water quality of inland \r\nponds, resulting in mortalities in areas such as India and Bangladesh \r\n(medium confidence) (Dubey et al., 2017; Dabbadie et al., 2018). Rapid \r\nchanges in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods and erosion \r\nhave created significant production losses for aquatic farmers in \r\nCambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam and Ghana (medium \r\nconfidence) (Asiedu et  al., 2017; Pongthanapanic et  al., 2019; Lebel \r\net  al., 2020). Algal blooming and inland lake browning related to \r\nwarming was found to negatively affect fish biomass (van Dorst et al., \r\n2018). Observed indirect effects of climate change on aquaculture "


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"Marine aquaculture food production is being impacted directly \r\nand indirectly by climate change (high confidence) (Bindoff et  al., \r\n2019). Ocean pH and oxygen levels are declining, whereas global \r\nwarming, sea level rise and extreme events are increasing (Cross\u0002Chapter Box  SLR in Chapter 3, Canadell et  al., 2021; Eyring et  al., \r\n2021; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021;). Marine heatwaves "


id: 5e55f59af3b1f0f6ab31fee6cc2ed30a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"include extreme weather events that damage coastal aquaculture \r\ninfrastructure or enable flooding, both leading to animal escapees \r\n(e.g., fish, shrimp), damaged livelihoods and interactions with wild \r\nspecies (high agreement, medium evidence) (Beveridge et al., 2018b; \r\nDabbadie et  al., 2018; Kais and Islam, 2018; Pongthanapanic et  al., \r\n2019; Ju et al., 2020)."


id: cf651287d455c3f8428328b182277256
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"Aquaculture vulnerability assessments have shown that countries from \r\nboth high and low latitudes are highly vulnerable to climate change, \r\nwhere vulnerability is driven by particular exposures, economic reliance, \r\ntype of production sector (freshwater, brackish, marine) and adaptive \r\ncapacity (high confidence) (Handisyde et al., 2017; Soto et al., 2018). \r\nRegional aquaculture vulnerabilities and risk mitigation potentials \r\nfor the major FAO reporting regions are shown in Figure 5.14. Best "


id: eae84a5edccde0102bf05ba271f22c76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"practice guidelines for assessments exist (Brugere et  al., 2019; FAO, \r\n2020d), but in practice most only cover some climatic drivers (medium \r\nagreement, limited evidence) (Soto et al., 2018). Holistic vulnerability \r\nassessments include ecosystem services (Custodio et al., 2020; Gentry \r\net al., 2020) and farming practices which can exacerbate production \r\npressures (stocking densities, eutrophication, fish stress) (Soto et al., \r\n2018; Sainz et al., 2019). Common vulnerabilities to inland and marine \r\naquaculture include increasing incidence and toxicity of HABs related \r\nto warming waters, causing fish kills and product consumption risks, \r\nnegatively impacting the productivity and stability of production \r\nsectors and reliant communities (high confidence) (Soto et al., 2018; \r\nAoki et al., 2019; Bannister et al., 2019)."


id: 8e0974dd32c9a00010f3e375852e0250
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"There is high confidence that inland aquaculture in Southeast Asia \r\nis highly vulnerable to climate change, due to fluctuations in water \r\nresources either through climatic variability in precipitation, flooding \r\nor salinity inundation or through competition (Handisyde et al., 2017; \r\nNguyen et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018; Islam et al., 2019; Nguyen et al., \r\n2019b; Prakoso et  al., 2020). Studies in Bangladesh and Indonesia \r\nhighlighted regional and species-specific vulnerabilities (Prakoso et al., \r\n2020) and roles of governance in vulnerability reduction (Islam et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 403da22c2f3dab72c5bef146dea21ed9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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content:
"Projected impacts on regional inland and marine aquaculture production \r\nare summarised in Figure 5.15."


id: bd003ded4eccbe6af6cb79b81416bde0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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content:
"Climate uncertainty and data limitations hinder vulnerability assess\u0002ments (high confidence), so broader vulnerabilities and qualitative as\u0002sessments can be used (Brugere and De Young, 2015; Soto et al., 2018; \r\nBrugere et al., 2019; Cochrane et al., 2019). Filling data gaps with mon\u0002itoring (high confidence), increasing governmental support to assist \r\nparticularly vulnerable small- and medium-scale farmers with increased \r\ncosts associated with risk management and uncertainty (medium con\u0002fidence) and the early inclusion of community stakeholders (high agree\u0002ment, medium evidence) can reduce vulnerabilities (Handisyde et al., \r\n2017; Dabbadie et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Co\u0002chrane et al., 2019)."


id: 4e0b52da3f2c4479e15d0d5039cfacd8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"Predicted sea level and temperature rise will result in coastal \r\ninundation into brackish and inland aquaculture systems (high \r\nconfidence) (Mehvar et al., 2019; Nhung et al., 2019; Oppenheimer \r\net  al., 2019; Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021), with negative impacts on \r\naquaculture production in Viet Nam, East Africa and Jamaica (medium \r\nconfidence) (Lebel et  al., 2018; Nguyen et  al., 2018; Bornemann \r\net  al., 2019). Precipitation and temperature changes will cause \r\ndrought and flooding, negatively affecting near-shore fishpond \r\nproductivity (limited evidence) (Canevari-Luzardo et  al., 2019), but \r\nprovide competitive advantages to non-native shrimp in Australia \r\n(limited evidence) (Cerato et  al., 2019). Warming and acidification \r\nwill increase HAB toxicity in freshwater systems, but responses may \r\nbe strain-specific (Griffith and Gobler, 2020; Hennon and Dyhrman, \r\n2020). As for molluscs in marine systems, projected climate change "


id: 7e62dfb68ac41a653e4bfb49171456eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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content:
"Figure 5.14 |  Assessment of inland freshwater and brackish aquaculture (salinities of <10 ppm and/or no connection to the marine environment) (a) and marine \r\naquaculture vulnerabilities and mitigation potential per major FAO production zones (b). See SM5.6 (Tables SM5.5, 5.6, 5.9, 5.10) for assessment methodologies."


id: f15a444ba6b1fbc4d830bf8c29a71ced
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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content:
"in freshwater and brackish systems may limit the availability of wild\u0002sourced juveniles from fisheries (Beveridge et  al., 2018). Projected \r\nimpact studies for the inland and small-scale aquatic sectors are very \r\nlimited (Halpern et al., 2019; Galappaththi et al., 2020b); therefore, \r\nthis is a noted knowledge gap."


id: 3c7c544909869f54cc182e6e697e0149
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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vector_id: 6880
content:
"Global projections of ocean warming, primary productivity and ocean \r\nacidification predict suitable habitat expansions and short-term growth \r\nbenefits for finfish aquaculture for some regions (medium confidence) \r\n(see Figure 5.15) until thermal tolerances or productivity constraints \r\nare exceeded by 2090 (Beveridge et  al., 2018b; Dabbadie et  al., "


id: 163691f218b8ab0569f97a91b22605c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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vector_id: 1022
content:
"Figure 5.15 |  Assessment of projected impacts of climate change on inland freshwater and brackish aquaculture (salinities of <10 ppm and/or no connection to \r\nthe marine environment) (a) and marine aquaculture (b) per major FAO production zones. See SM5.6 (Tables SM5.7, 5.11) for assessment methodologies."


id: fe7ad0b385edb96efea2bf2710d8902d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"2019), where warming will affect oxygen solubility and reduce salmon \r\nculture capacity (limited evidence) (Aksnes et  al., 2019, Chapter 3) \r\nand combine with increasing incidence of HABs (high confidence) \r\nresulting in negative impacts for food security and nutrition and health \r\n(Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Colombo et al., 2020; Glibert, 2020; Raven \r\net  al., 2020). Climate change is predicted to affect the incidence, "


id: 14cb59115b98a61e9712569b2e2d4b85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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vector_id: 780
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"magnitude and virulence of finfish disease such as Vibriosis (Barber \r\net  al., 2016; Mohamad et  al., 2019a; Mohamad et  al., 2019b), but \r\nspecific host-pathogen-climate relationships are not yet established \r\n(high confidence) (Slenning, 2010; Marcogliese, 2016; Montanchez \r\net al., 2019; Bandin and Souto, 2020; Behringer et al., 2020; Filipe et al., \r\n2020; Montanchez and Kaberdin, 2020). Projected climate change will "


id: 561b52cfdb91c251df63ac6f653dbf17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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vector_id: 11036
content:
"Table 5.11 |  Projected impacts of climate on specific inland, brackish and marine culture systems and species."


id: 2daa1cc434bd40edc4d37505021a87a0
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"also increase competition for feed ingredients between aquatic and \r\nterrestrial animal production systems (see Section 5.13.2.)."


id: b9715038c7285a86a7438eb4801947b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"There is medium confidence that cultivated seaweeds are predicted \r\nto suffer habitat loss resulting in population declines and northward \r\nshifts (Table 5.11)."


id: 4c82bb339df77f30a362f0621113d083
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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"Aquaculture is often viewed as an adaptation option for fisheries \r\ndeclines, thereby alleviating food security from losses of other climate \r\nchange impacts (Sowman and Raemaekers, 2018; Johnson et  al., \r\n2020) such as Pacific Islands freshwater aquaculture, Bangladesh crop\u0002aquaculture systems or Viet Nam rice-fish cultivations (Soto et  al., "


id: 8101080b60a629dacab773458bd54f69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:04
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content:
"Land-based aquaculture systems including hatcheries may reduce \r\nexposure to climatic extremes (due to better control of the culture \r\nenvironment), limit water usage, reduce juvenile reliance and buffer \r\nclimate effects using optimal diets (high confidence) (Barton et  al., \r\n2015; Reid et al., 2019; Cominassi et al., 2020). However, land-based \r\naquaculture requires large capital and operational costs and use of \r\nland, increasing conflicts between land and water use, have increased \r\nenergy demands (increasing GHG if fossil fuels are the primary energy \r\nsource), require necessary expertise and will not reduce outgrowing \r\nexposures (high confidence) (see Section 5.13, Beveridge et al., 2018b; \r\nSoto et al., 2018; Tillotson et al., 2019; Costello et al., 2020; Prakoso \r\net al., 2020)."


