# document

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" Intolerable risks are those \r\nwhich fundamentally threaten a private or social norm--threatening, \r\nfor instance, public safety, continuity of traditions, a legal standard or a \r\nsocial contract--despite adaptive action having been taken (Dow et. al. \r\n2013). Intolerable risks threaten core social objectives associated with \r\nhealth, welfare, security or sustainability (WGII AR5 Chapter 16, Klein \r\net al., 2014b). Through the lens of resilience, hard limits represent the \r\nrange of change or disturbance beyond which a system cannot maintain "


id: 5926f6d4c30a99e607f639082c0ef170
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"Existing case studies use varying criteria for assessing effectiveness, \r\ncomplicating comparisons. Judgements regarding successful \r\nadaptation are contingent on the chosen scale and perspective (success \r\nfor whom?) (Adger et al., 2005; Dilling et al., 2019) and on the level \r\nof risk, that is increasing climate risks may cause previously successful \r\nadaptation to become insufficient. Rather than a binary outcome \r\n(successful or unsuccessful), adaptation can be viewed on a continuum \r\nfrom successful adaptation to maladaptation (Section  17.5.2). \r\nAssessments of adaptation success need to account for distributional \r\neffects and differential vulnerability, as well as consider connections \r\nacross different scales and complex interactions with other change \r\nprocesses (Section 17.5.1). Recent literature has begun to identify how \r\nadaptation can better achieve its intended objectives (Eriksen et al., \r\n2021)"


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" For instance, inclusive M&E can legitimise and validate M&E \r\nand foster commitment and learning."


id: 999bb0611752c52619b10ac80d2be6c3
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"This report assesses adaptation limits (soft and hard) and residual risks \r\nfor some actors and systems (Chapter 16). Residual risk is the risk \r\nthat remains following adaptation and risk reduction efforts (SROCC). \r\nResidual risk is also used as other terms such as 'residual impacts', \r\n'residual loss and damage' and 'residual damage'. As noted in AR5 \r\nWGII (IPCC, 2014a, b), the residual risk is larger or smaller depending \r\non a society's choices about the appropriate level of adaptation and \r\nits ability to achieve an appropriate level. The intersection of inequality \r\nand poverty presents significant adaptation limits, resulting in residual \r\nimpacts for vulnerable groups, including women, youth, elderly, ethnic \r\nand religious minorities, Indigenous People and refugees (Section 8.4.5)"


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" \r\nAn appropriate level of adaptation, which ideally reflects a balance \r\nbetween the desired level of risk and the actions needed to achieve \r\nthat level of risk, depends on the solution space, the society's views \r\non climate justice, the tolerance for climate-related risks, the society's \r\ntolerance for the costs and other impacts of the actions needed to \r\nreduce risk. IPCC's special reports stated that residual risks rise with \r\nincreasing global temperatures from 1.5degC to 2degC (SR 1.5) and emerge \r\nfrom irreversible forms of land degradation (SRCCL). Among other risks, \r\nthis report evidenced that, at risk to coastal flooding from sea level \r\nrise, nature-based adaptation measures (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, \r\nmarshes) reach hard limits beginning at 1.5degC of global warming \r\n(Chapter 16)"


id: cce9a478d9a298e7d6811dc83a3b337e
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" Residual risks may lead to exceeding the limits of \r\nadaptation, hence, this report underscores on the role of decision making \r\non transformational adaptation for dealing with residual risk as well as \r\nsoft and hard adaptation limits (Cross-Chapter Box  LOSS in Chapter \r\n17). Section 1.5 addresses transformational adaptation in the context \r\nof climate resilient development pathways since such adaptation is \r\ninseparable from mitigation and sustainable development."


id: f080416d238cf4280f62d9cd1b48d104
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"A species' ability to adapt may be significantly impacted by the \r\ndynamics of interactions between the ecosystems and species, so that \r\na species may reach its limit to adapt even in a gradually changing \r\nenvironment, leading to sudden changes in range fragmentation \r\n(Radchuk et  al., 2019). As human interventions affect the ability \r\nof species and ecosystems to adapt, a deeper understanding on \r\necosystems and species interactions and evolution in response to \r\nclimate change is important in order to reduce future biodiversity losses \r\n(Nadeau and Urban, 2019). Soft limits are usually associated with \r\nhuman systems whereas hard limits are more proximate for natural \r\nsystems due to inability to adapt to biophysical changes (Chapter 16) \r\n(medium confidence)"


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" Many human and natural systems are near their \r\nsoft adaptation limits for instance, terrestrial and aquatic species and \r\necosystems, coastal communities, water security, crop production, and \r\nhuman health (Chapters 2;3; 4; 5; 7; 16; Dow et al., 2013)."


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"The concept of limits to adaptation is dynamic in terms of the temporal, \r\nspatial and contextual dimensions of climate change risks, impacts and \r\nresponses (Chapter 17; Storch, 2018). Adaptation limits depend on a \r\ncomplex function of interactions between social, ecological, technological \r\nand climatic elements, which appear to have thresholds beyond which \r\nadaptation can be infeasible and represent limits to adaptation. Such \r\nthresholds are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, \r\nknowledge, attitudes, culture, governance, institutions and policies \r\n(Abrahamson et  al., 2009; Tschakert et  al., 2017). Since AR5, the \r\nevidence on limits to adaptation has been advanced across regions and \r\nsectors. Many adaptation constraints (financial, governance, institutional \r\nand policy, etc.) lead to soft adaptation limits (see Chapter 16 for \r\ndetailed evidence on constraints and adaptation limits)"


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" The ability of \r\nactors to overcome these constraints including social constraints to \r\nbehavioural changes, depends on additional adaptation implementation. \r\n(Abrahamson et  al., 2009; Juan, 2011; Di Virgilio et  al., 2019). Thus, \r\nsocioeconomic, technological, governance and institutional systems or \r\npolicies can be changed or transformed in responses to the different \r\ndimension of adaptation limits to climate change and extreme events."


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"The concept of Loss and Damage (with capitalised letters, L&D) \r\nrefers to the discussion point under the UNFCCC, which is to 'address \r\nloss and damage associated with impacts of climate change, including \r\nextreme events and slow onset events, in developing countries that \r\nare particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change'. \r\nLowercase letters of losses and damages refer broadly to harm from \r\n(observed) impacts and (projected) risks (IPCC, 2018a). The IPCC report \r\nuses the latter for its assessment on loss and damage which may provide \r\nuseful information for the former. L&D associated with climate change \r\nhas gained importance supported by the robust scientific evidence on \r\nanthropogenic climate change amplifying the frequency, intensity and \r\nduration of climate-related hazards (Mechler et  al., 2019)"


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" Loss and \r\ndamage associated with those residual losses and damages that are felt \r\nbeyond the adaptation actions taken imply a sense of limits to adaptation \r\nat a given time and within a spatial context (Tschakert et  al., 2017). \r\nIPCC's SRCCL also underlined the unavoidable loss and damage due to \r\nchanges in tropical and extratropical cyclones and marine heatwaves, \r\nwhere adaptation and resilience limits are being exceeded for the people \r\nand ecosystems (Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; IPCC, 2019a)."


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"Boyd et al., 2017). It originated in assessing compensation for SIDS, \r\nrelated to sea level rise impacts. It has since become formalised under \r\nthe UNFCCC, through the establishment of the Warsaw International \r\nMechanism (UNFCCC, 2013) and Article 8 of the Paris Agreement \r\n(UNFCCC, 2015b). The Warsaw International Mechanism promotes \r\nthe implementation of comprehensive risk management approaches, \r\nimproves understanding of slow onset events, non-economic losses \r\nand human mobility (migration, displacement), and enhances action \r\nand support, including finance, technology and capacity building to \r\navert, minimise and address loss and damage associated with climate \r\nchange impacts, particularly on vulnerable and developing countries \r\n(UNFCCC, 2021). Different actors have defined loss and damage \r\ndifferently in reference to climate change impacts and responses \r\n(Surminski and Lopez, 2015; Roberts and Pelling, 2016; Boyd et  al., \r\n2017; McNamara and Jackson, 2019)"


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" These understandings include \r\nthe following: (a) an adaptation and mitigation perspective linking all \r\nhuman-induced climate change impacts to potential loss and damage \r\nand a mandate to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference; (b) a \r\nrisk management perspective emphasising interconnections among \r\ndisaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and humanitarian \r\nefforts; (c) a limits to adaptation perspective focused on residual \r\nloss and damage beyond adaptation and mitigation; and (d) an \r\nexistential perspective highlighting inevitable harm and unavoidable \r\ntransformation for some people and systems. This report assesses the \r\ngrowing literature on loss and damage across sectors and regions \r\nlinking with adaptation constraints and limits, GWL and incremental \r\nand or transformational adaptation to climate risks (Section  8.3.4; \r\nCross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; Box 10.7)."


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"Many time scales have been assessed that shape the context for any \r\nsuch transformations: including the present, 2030 and mid-century \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE in Chapter 1). In the present, significant \r\nchanges in the climate system have already occurred in many places \r\n(WGI), while commensurate adaptation actions have in general been \r\nlacking (Chapter 16). By 2030, the SDGs call for significant societal \r\nchanges, many of which would be more difficult to achieve without \r\nsignificant reductions in climate risk and impacts. By mid-century, \r\nglobal emissions pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5degC \r\ntarget drop to zero net GHG emissions with no overshoot and roughly a \r\ndecade later with overshoot (Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE in Chapter 1). \r\nPathways consistent with the Paris 2degC target drop to zero net emissions \r\nin the latter half of the 21st century"


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" Even in low emission scenarios, \r\ntemperatures, storm intensities, sea levels and other climate parameters \r\nare expected to continue to change for decades (IPCC, 2021a)."


id: 16d0bba56e25427d01108f75af2e461e
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"To assess the projected losses and damages, residual risks also need to \r\nbe taken into account. The loss and damage associated with the future \r\nclimate change impacts, beyond the limits to adaptation, is an area of \r\nincreasing focus, although yet to be fully developed in terms of methods \r\nof assessment. This includes non-economic losses and damages, as well \r\nas identifying means to avoid and reduce both economic (loss of asset, \r\ninfrastructure, land etc.) and non-economic (loss of societal beliefs and \r\nvalues, cultural heritage, biodiversity and ecosystem services) losses \r\nand damages (Fankhauser and Dietz, 2014; Andrei et al., 2015). There \r\nis increasing evidence of economic and non-economic losses due to \r\nclimate extremes and slow onset events under observed increases in \r\nglobal temperatures (Section  8.3.4; Coronese et  al., 2019; Grinsted \r\net al., 2019; Kahn et al"


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", 2019), however assessment of non-economic \r\nlosses and damages is lacking and needs more attention (Serdeczny \r\net al., 2016; Tschakert et al., 2019). The aggregate losses and damages \r\nwould be higher if non-economic values are considered in such \r\nassessment (Laurila-Pant et al., 2015; McShane, 2017). To reduce or \r\navoid loss and damage, there is a need for robust conceptual framework \r\nand analysis, focusing on future losses rather than past losses (Preston, \r\n2017). This should have an emphasis on avoiding versus addressing \r\nloss and damage and the role of justice (Boyd et al., 2017), clarity on \r\ndetection and attribution (Sections 8.2.1; 8.3.3), effectiveness of risk \r\nmanagement and adaptation (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter \r\n18; Section 1.4), the concepts of risk transfer, liability and financing \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17; Section 17.4.2) and the \r\nrole of transformation (Section 1.5)."


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"Over the last 200  years, human society has undergone a rapid and \r\nprofound transformation, with population and income per capita \r\nexpanding by an order of magnitude or more after many millennia \r\nof relative stasis in living standards (Dasgupta et  al., 2018). The \r\ntransformations associated with sustainable development and \r\nmanaging climate risk may be of similar scale as these historic \r\ntransformations. In the past, changes in technologies and economies \r\nof this scale are not separate from, but are necessarily embedded \r\nalongside changes in political, religious and social relationships \r\n(Polanyi, 1957). Future transformation may similarly involve such \r\ninterlinked social, cultural, economic, environmental, technical and \r\npolitical factors (Chapter 18; Section 1.5.2)"


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" Technology-led, market-led \r\nor state-led transitions aimed at meeting Paris Agreement and SDGs \r\nmay fail without integrating dimensions of social justice and addressing \r\nthe social and political exclusion that prevent the disadvantaged from \r\naccessing such improvements and increasing their incomes (Burkett \r\net al., 2014; Scoones et al., 2015) (medium confidence)."


id: 9c6522da3124f6a757b1d2cb678456d0
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"Figure  1.9 connects several key concepts that this report employs \r\nto help distinguish pathways that lead to deliberative and forced \r\ntransformations. As shown in the figure, adaptation goals might imply \r\na desired level of adaptation: (a) accessible by actions within the \r\nsolution space of the existing system or (b) beyond the solution space \r\nof the existing system. In the former case, incremental adaptation may \r\nstay within soft limits and hold risks to tolerable levels that avoid \r\nthreatening private or social norms (also see Figure 17.6). In the latter \r\ncase, deliberate transformational adaptation is necessary to reach the \r\ngoals. Alternatively, if deliberate transformation does not successfully \r\noccur or hard limits are exceeded, the system may nonetheless \r\nundergo some type of forced transformation which results in outcomes \r\ninconsistent with societal goals. While the figure shows single decision \r\npoints, multiple actors are involved at each stage"


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" Thus, some people \r\nmay find themselves coping with what they regard as intolerable risks \r\nwhich are not otherwise avoided. Often such coping situations display \r\nsignificant inequities, with tolerable risks for powerful groups and \r\nintolerable ones for marginalised groups."


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"(Kohler et al., 2019). This literature identifies three, interacting scales: \r\nthe micro, meso and macro.(Geels, 2004; Kohler et al., 2019) The micro \r\nlevel reflects changing individual choices, attitudes and motivations. The \r\nmeso reflects socio-technical systems, 'a cluster of elements, including \r\ntechnology, regulations, user practices and markets, cultural meanings, \r\ninfrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks' (Geels, 2004, \r\np. 436). The macro reflects the cultures, institutions, norms, governance \r\nand other broad organising features of society. The sustainability \r\ntransitions literature generally focuses on change that originates and \r\noccurs within the meso scale, while the transformation literature focuses \r\non change within and among all scales. This Working Group II report \r\noften considers three interacting scales labelled personal, practical and \r\npolitical (O'Brien and Sygna, 2013)"


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" Working Group III often employs \r\nthe multi-level perspectives framework (Geels, 2004) and the more \r\nactor-oriented three domains of decision making framework (WGIII \r\nSection 1.6.4; Grubb et al., 2014;) to describe related societal scales."


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"These literatures describe similar processes through which these \r\ninteracting elements generate significant system change. In the \r\nsustainability transitions literature, the process begins with a stable \r\nsystem of actors, technologies and institutions (Kohler et  al., 2019). \r\nRadical innovations begin in niches or protected spaces, sometimes \r\nintroduced by new entrants or outsiders. Successful innovations expand \r\nin scale, scope and geographically, and ultimately help generate \r\nnew regimes. Incumbent actors can support or resist innovations \r\nthrough combinations of government policies, economic forces and \r\ninstitutional and behavioural pressures. Such processes can, but need \r\nnot, follow a common S-curve pattern of initial adoption, take-off, \r\nacceleration and stabilisation (Rotmans et al., 2001)"


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" The multi-level \r\nperspectives literature in WGIII similarly describes innovations as \r\nmoving from niches to socio-technical regimes, at first mediated by \r\nand then potentially altering exogenous socio-technical landscapes \r\n(WGIII Section 1.6.4; Smith et al., 2010)."


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"This report describes decision frameworks and tools that can \r\nhelp those involved in such a process--acting independently or \r\ncollectively--identify, evaluate, seek compromise on and then \r\nimplement sequences of solutions that lead to pathways with more \r\ndesirable outcomes and avoid pathways with less desirable outcomes \r\n(Section  17.3.1). For instance, adaptive (also called adaptation) \r\npathways (Cross-Chapter Boxes SLR in Chapter 3 and DEEP in Chapter \r\n17) explicitly chart alternative sequences of actions including near\u0002term steps, indicators to monitor and contingency actions to take if \r\npre-determined monitoring thresholds are breached. Employed in \r\ncontexts with multiple actors and contested values, adaptive pathways \r\nframe deliberate transformation as both a near-term decision problem \r\nfocused on physical, financial and natural resources, as well as a \r\nsocial change process of co-evolving knowledge, policies, institutions, \r\nvalues, rules and norms (Fazey et al"


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", 2016). Transition management \r\n(Loorbach, 2010), rooted in the sustainability transitions literature, \r\nsupports arenas of actors that co-produce visions of future change, \r\nplan pathways and recruit additional actors into the change process."


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"Building on AR5, this AR6 report expands the focus with increased \r\nattention to equity and the processes needed to follow such \r\ntrajectories. AR6 thus defines climate resilient development as 'a \r\nprocess of implementing GHG mitigation and adaptation solutions \r\nto support sustainable development for all' (Section 18.1.1). In AR6 \r\nWGII, some chapters have a section dedicated to climate resilient \r\ndevelopment, emphasising the need for integrative and transformative \r\nsolutions within a sector or region that address the uneven distribution \r\nof climate risks among different groups and geographies, as well as \r\nextend the goals of these solutions to more than reducing risk, such as \r\nin improving social, economic and ecological outcomes (Sections 2.6.7; \r\n4.1; 5.14.4; 6.4.8; 7.4.3.5; 7.4.5; 10.6; 11.8; 15.7; 17.6; Boxes 4.7; 13.3; \r\n8.10)"


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" Multiple chapters also employ the concept of climate resilient \r\ndevelopment to identify and balance trade-offs and make progress on \r\nachieving the SDGs (Sections 6.1.3; 7.4.5; 10.6; 13.11; 15.7; 16.6.4.3; \r\nBox 4.7; Chapter 18)."


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"Climate resilient development requires large and equitable changes \r\nin human and natural systems. As noted in Section 1.5.1, the SR1.5 \r\nfinds that four transitions in socioeconomic systems--energy, land \r\nand ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, and industrial--must occur \r\nat large scale and rapid rate in order to achieve climate resilient \r\ndevelopment. This report notes that transitions of such scale, even \r\nwhen beneficial for many people, can also impose significant adverse \r\nimpacts on others, in particular on marginal and vulnerable populations \r\n(Section 18.1.2). This report identifies a fifth socioeconomic transition, \r\nthat in societal systems that 'drive innovation, preferences for \r\nalternative patterns of consumption and development, and the power \r\nrelationships among different actors that engage in climate resilient \r\ndevelopment (Section 18.1.4)"


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" Such societal transitions are necessary \r\nto ensure the other four transitions unfold at sufficient speed and scale \r\nto meet the goals of Paris and the SDGs, as well as to ensure equity in \r\nthese transitions."


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"Nonetheless, most concepts of deliberate transformation also emphasise \r\nthe importance of common goals and principles within a process of \r\ngoal setting, acting on those goals, M&E and readjustment. Such goals \r\nencourage pro-active action, help align the activities of multiple, loosely \r\nco-ordinated actors (Gopel, 2016; Dasgupta et  al., 2018) and provide \r\nbenchmarks against which to measure progress (Young, 2017). The Paris \r\nAgreement and SDGs aim to provide such common goals for the world \r\nas a whole and implement what some have described as goal-based \r\nas opposed to rule-based governance for galvanising collective action \r\n(Sachs, 2015; Kanie and Biermann, 2017). As intended, many public \r\nsector, private sector and civil society actors have developed their own \r\ngoals that aim to align with the Paris Agreement and the SDGs (see \r\nSection 1.1)"


id: 62d122300d06834bdb2d622c8cb70b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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content:
" The existence of goals that help people envision a future \r\nsignificantly different than present can be one, often key, difference \r\nbetween decision processes that pursue transformational as opposed to \r\nincremental change (Park et al., 2012; Chapter 17). Narratives that help "


id: 399db496ddb9dcfbae4284ebf79a3cbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 6441
content:
"carbon, prosperous and ecologically safe futures. This report defines \r\na climate resilient development pathway as a trajectory in time \r\nreflecting a particular sequence of actions and consequences against \r\na background of autonomous developments leading to a specific \r\nfuture situation (Section  18.1.2). Such a pathway emerges from the \r\nspatially and temporally distributed choices of many different actors \r\nin government, business, civic organisations and households at the \r\nindividual, community, national and international levels. As such, there \r\nis no single or preferred pathway for climate resilient development and \r\nno single best combination of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable \r\ndevelopment strategies. All pathways involve complex trade-offs \r\nand synergies among different actions (Sections  18.1.4; 18.2.2)"


id: 6da074971e51fbc30adefafcd12dce6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14857
content:
" All \r\npathways are subject to hard-to-predict shocks, both adverse, such as \r\nclimate disasters, and beneficial, such as new technologies or shifts in \r\npublic values. The pathway that emerges will represent the results of \r\nnegotiation, cooperation and competition among actors at many scales, \r\nwhose differing values and objectives would favour differing trajectories \r\n(Section 18.1.4). Individual actors at various scales will determine the \r\nmix of adaptation, mitigation and development appropriate for their \r\ndevelopment context and goals, while also influenced by the desire for \r\ntheir collective actions to become consistent with the global policy goals, \r\nsuch as those in the Paris Agreement and the SDGs (Section 18.1.2). The \r\nnorms, institutions and power relationships that mediate such choices \r\ndetermine the extent to which the process unfolds consistent with \r\nprinciples of equity and social justice (high confidence)."


id: e3444ad828016bccffec7bf2ebb824bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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content:
"Climate change adaptation entails the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects \r\nin order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. At a high level, international frameworks, including \r\nthe Paris Agreement and the SDGs, have come to provide a direction for coordinating, financing and assessing \r\nglobal progress in these terms. The Paris Agreement calls for climate change adaptation actions, referring to these \r\nactions as those that reduce risk and vulnerability, strengthen resilience, enhance the capacity to anticipate and \r\nrespond successfully, and ensure the availability of necessary financial resources, as these processes and outcomes \r\nrelate to climate change. In addition, the Sustainable Development Goals include 17 targets (with a specific goal \r\nSDG 13 on climate action) to fulfil its mission to end extreme poverty by 2030, protect the planet and build more \r\npeaceful, just and inclusive societies"


id: 8c557b80e245cdae891ec82b1b8c5388
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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content:
" These goals are difficult to reach without successful adaptation to climate \r\nchange. Other notable frameworks that identify climate change adaptation as important global priorities include \r\nthe SFDRR, the finance-oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the New Urban Agenda."


id: f95deef5590cc531a0f1e6ee77b254fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 36744
content:
"Because the impacts of climate change affect people and nature in so many different ways, the specific goals of \r\nadaptation depend on the impact being managed and the action being taken. For human systems, adaptation \r\nincludes actions aimed at reducing a specific risk, such as by fortifying a building against flooding, or actions aimed \r\nat multiple risks, such as requiring climate risk assessments in financial reporting in anticipation of different kinds \r\nof risk. At the local level, communities can take actions that include updating building codes and land use plans, \r\nimproving soil management, enhancing water use efficiency, supporting migrants and taking measures to reduce \r\npoverty. For natural systems, adaptation includes organisms changing behaviours, migrating to new locations and \r\ngenetic modifications in response to changing climate conditions"


id: 713d89a583fa3f9b23a345a629405c59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 15454
content:
" The goals for these adaptation actions can relate \r\nto health, water or food security, jobs and employment, poverty eradication and social equity, biodiversity and \r\necosystem services, among others. Articulating the goals of adaptation thus requires engaging with the concepts of \r\nequity, justice and effectiveness at the international, national and local levels."


id: bcd7e321e849f2d9a89b75b668addf5e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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content:
"The degree to which an action is feasible is the extent to which it is appraised as possible and desirable, taking into \r\nconsideration barriers, enablers, synergies and trade-offs. These considerations are based on financial or economic, \r\npolitical, physical, historical and social factors, depending on what is required for an action to be implemented. The \r\ndegree to which an action is effective depends on the extent it reduces climate risk, as well as the extent an action \r\nachieves its intended goals or outcomes. An adaptation action can sometimes--usually inadvertently--increase risk \r\nor vulnerability for some or all affected individuals or communities. In some cases, such risk increases will be \r\nsufficient to call the actions maladaptation. The degree to which an action is just is when its outcomes, the process \r\nof implementing the action and the process of choosing the action respects principles of distributive, procedural \r\nand recognitional justice"


id: 7307942ab19778c7bea523a8e1b581bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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content:
"Contributing Authors: Stavana E. Strutz (USA), David D Ackerly (USA), Elizabeth Anderson (USA), \r\nPhilip Boyd (Australia), Jorn Birkmann (Germany), Vanessa Bremerich (Germany), Lluis Brotons \r\n(Spain), Polly Buotte (USA), Donovan Campbell (Jamaica), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala), \r\nYu-Yun Chen (Taiwan, Province of China), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/Switzerland/France), Sarah \r\nCooley (USA), Annette Cowie (Australia), Meghnath Dhimal (Nepal), Sami Domisch (Germany), \r\nSimon Donner (Canada), Errol Douwes (South Africa), Luis E. Escobar (Guatemala/USA), Marta \r\nRivera Ferre (Spain), Alexander Flecker (USA), Wendy Foden (South Africa), Rachael V. Gallagher \r\n(Australia), Aurora Gaxiola (Chile), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia), Michael Goulding (USA), \r\nKerry-Anne Grey (South Africa), Elena Lopez Gunn (Spain), Susan Harrison (USA), Jeff Hicke (USA), \r\nNathalie Jeanne Marie Hilmi (Monaco/France), Gladys Barragan Jason (France), David A"


id: a2d230b2a90cc06fc2f7a11deb61058
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 23183
content:
" Keith \r\n(Australia), Rachel Bezner Kerr (USA/Canada), Benjamin M. Kraemer (USA/Germany), Simone \r\nLanghans (Switzerland), Rodel Lasco (Philippines), Andrew Latimer (USA), Robert Lempert (USA), \r\nSalvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Julie Loisel (Canada, USA), Brendan Mackey (Australia), Paulina \r\nMartinetto (Argentina), Robert Matthews (UK), Timon McPhearson (USA), Mette Mauritzen \r\n(Norway), Guy Midgley (South Africa), Erin Mordecai (USA), Francisco Moreira (Portugal), \r\nAditi Mukherji (India), Isla Myers-Smith (UK/USA), Gert-Jan Nabuurs (the Netherlands), Henry \r\nNeufeldt (Denmark/Germany), James Pearce-Higgins (UK), Gretta Pecl (Australia), Roque Pedace \r\n(Argentina), A. Townsend Peterson (USA), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany), Julio C"


id: 1bca4879c6dbd09e6a22de65654cf1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 1832
content:
" Postigo (Peru/\r\nUSA), Juan Pulhin (Philippines), Marie-Fanny Racault (UK/France), Joacim Rocklov (Germany/\r\nSweden), Joeri Rogelj (UK/Belgium), Bjorn Rost (Germany), Marina Romanello (UK/Argentina/\r\nItaly), Angela Gallego-Sala (Spain/UK), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany), David Schoeman \r\n(Australia), Nathalie Seddon (UK), Jan C. Semenza (Italy), Michael C. Singer (France/UK), Pramod \r\nKumar Singh (India), Jasper Slingsby (South Africa), Pete Smith (UK), Raman Sukumar (India), \r\nMaria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain), Christopher Trisos (South Africa), Merritt Turetsky (USA), Beth \r\nTurner (Canada), Maarten van Aalst (the Netherlands), Kenneth Young (USA)."


id: 28771de068709f03979fc1be6f2f349a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 3780
content:
"Fire seasons have lengthened on one-quarter of vegetated areas \r\nsince 1979 as a result of increasing temperature, aridity and drought \r\n(medium confidence). Field evidence shows that anthropogenic \r\nclimate change increased area burned by wildfire above natural \r\nlevels in western North America in the period 1984-2017: \r\na doubling above natural for the western USA and 11  times \r\nhigher than natural in one extreme year in British Columbia \r\n(high confidence). In the Amazon, the Arctic, Australia and parts of \r\nAfrica and Asia, burned area has increased, consistent with, although \r\nnot formally attributed to, anthropogenic climate change. Wildfires \r\ngenerate up to one-third of ecosystem carbon emissions globally, \r\na feedback that exacerbates climate change (high confidence)"


id: 2d1b226600d8fc1afe1ccbd139023aa2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4538
content:
" \r\nDeforestation, draining of peatlands, agricultural expansion or \r\nabandonment, fire suppression, and inter-decadal cycles such as the El \r\nNino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can exert a stronger influence than \r\nclimate change on increasing or decreasing wildfire in some regions \r\n{2.4.4.2; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1; FAQ 2.3}. Increase in wildfire from the \r\nlevels to which ecosystems are adapted degrades vegetation, habitat \r\nfor biodiversity, water supplies and other key aspects of the integrity \r\nof ecosystems and their ability to provide services for people (high \r\nconfidence). {2.4.3.1, 2.4.4.2, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1}"


id: 1df1f41a9eab7246e3f50c24b011a397
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 2140
content:
"Since AR5, biome shifts and structural changes within \r\necosystems have been detected at an increasing number \r\nof locations, consistent with climate change and increasing \r\natmospheric CO2 (high confidence). New studies are documenting \r\nthe changes that were projected in prior IPCC reports have now been \r\nobserved, including upward shifts in the forest/alpine tundra ecotone, \r\nnorthward shifts in the deciduous/boreal forest ecotones, increased \r\nwoody vegetation in the sub-Arctic tundra and shifts in the thermal \r\nhabitat in lakes (high confidence). A combination of changes in grazing, \r\nbrowsing, fire, climate and atmospheric CO2 is leading to observed \r\nwoody encroachment into grasslands and savannah, consistent \r\nwith projections from process-based models driven by precipitation, \r\natmospheric CO2 and wildfires (high confidence) {2.4.3; Table  2.3; \r\nTable SM2.1; Box 2.1; Figure Box 2.1.1; Table Box 2.1.1}"


id: 39be9f082b56ca5501dbdc98c01af095
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 6456
content:
" There is high \r\nagreement between the projected changes in earlier reports and the \r\nrecent trends observed for areas of increased tree death in temperate \r\nand boreal forests and woody encroachment in savannas, grasslands \r\nand tundra {2.5.4; Box  2.1; Figure Box  2.1.1; Table Box  2.1.1}. \r\nObserved changes impact the structure, functioning and resilience of \r\necosystems as well as ecosystem services, such as climate regulation \r\n(high confidence) {2.3; 2.4.2; 2.4.3; 2.4.4, 2.5.4, Figure 2.11, Table 2.5, \r\nBox 2.1; Figure Box 2.1.1; Table Box 2.1.1}."


id: bae991e3a276623a9ab25dcaa7c141fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 26946
content:
"Species are the fundamental unit of ecosystems, and the \r\nincreasing risk of local losses of species increases the risks of \r\nreduced ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience with \r\nincreasing warming (high confidence). As species become rare, their \r\nrole in the functioning of the ecosystem diminishes (high confidence). \r\nLoss of species locally reduces the ability of an ecosystem to provide \r\nservices and lowers its resilience to climate change (high confidence). \r\nAt 1.58degC GSAT warming, >10% of species are projected to become \r\nendangered (median estimate, with \"endangered\" equating to a high \r\nrisk of extinction, sensu IUCN), and at 2.07degC this rises to >20% of \r\nspecies, representing a high and very high risk of biodiversity loss, \r\nrespectively (medium confidence) {2.5.4; Figure  2.8b, Figure  2.11; \r\nTable 2.5; Table SM2.5}"


id: 3946b5de848daf80bd195f22caeb311
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 6385
content:
" Biodiversity loss is projected for more regions \r\nwith increasing warming, and will be worst in northern South America, \r\nsouthern Africa, most of Australia and at northern high latitudes \r\n(medium confidence) {2.5.1.3; Figure 2.6}."


id: 9e74286f836d86db3a6223ef067a5dae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 22463
content:
"Extinction of species is an irreversible impact of climate change, \r\nwith increasing risk as global temperatures rise (very high \r\nconfidence). The median values for percentage of species at very \r\nhigh risk of extinction (categorized as \"critically endangered\" by IUCN \r\nRed List categories)(IUCN, 2001) are 9% at 1.5degC rise in GSAT, 10% \r\nat 2degC, 12% at 3.0degC, 13% at 4degC and 15% at 5degC (high confidence), \r\nwith the likely range of estimates having a maximum of 14% at \r\n1.5degC and rising to a maximum of 48% at 5degC (Figure 2.7). Among \r\nthe groups containing the largest numbers of species at a very high \r\nrisk of extinction for mid-levels of warming (3.2degC) are: invertebrates \r\n(15%, and specifically pollinators at 12%), amphibians (11% overall, \r\nbut salamanders are at 24%) and flowering plants (10%)"


id: 87e69b32de63d8eedf93e174afe10be8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 18904
content:
" All groups \r\nfare substantially better at lower warming of 2degC, with extinction \r\nprojections reducing to <3% for all groups, except salamanders that \r\nreduced to 7% (medium confidence) (Figure  2.8a). Even the lowest \r\nestimates of species' extinctions (median of 9% at 1.5degC rise GSAT') \r\nare 1000  times the natural background rates. Projected species' \r\nextinctions at future global warming levels are consistent with \r\nprojections from AR4, but assessed for many more species with much \r\ngreater geographic coverage and a broader range of climate models.\r\n{2.5.1.3; Figure 2.6; Figure 2.7; Figure 2.8; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in \r\nChapter 17; Cross-Chapter Paper 1}"


id: 87b212e59c2856bbef554b99e0bca0a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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vector_id: 18878
content:
"There is new evidence that species can persist in refugia where \r\nconditions are locally cooler, when populations of the same \r\nspecies may be declining elsewhere (high confidence) {2.6.2}.\r\nProtecting refugia, for example, where soils remain wet during drought \r\nor fire risk is reduced, and in some cases creating cooler micro-climates, \r\nare promising adaptation measures {2.6.3; 2.6.5; Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n1; CCP5.2.1}. There is also new evidence that species can persist locally \r\nbecause of plasticity including changes in phenology or behavioural \r\nchanges that move an individual into cooler micro-climates, and \r\ngenetic adaptation may allow species to persist for longer than might \r\nbe expected from local climatic changes (high confidence) {2.4.2.6; \r\n2.4.2.8, 2.6.1}"


id: 1a6528657d14e20fc6f1137f27f83c11
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1627
content:
" There is no evidence to indicate that these mechanisms \r\nwill prevent global extinctions of rare, very localised species already \r\nnear their climatic limits or species inhabiting climate/habitat zones \r\nthat are disappearing (high confidence). {2.4.2.8, 2.5.1, 2.5.3.1, 2.5.4, \r\n2.6.1, 2.6.2, 2.6.5}"


id: 2e395475720bbdeefed950b906efac88
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4711
content:
"Natural ecosystems can provide the storage and sequestration of \r\ncarbon at the same time as providing multiple other ecosystem \r\nservices, including EbA (high confidence), but there are risks \r\nof maladaptation and environmental damage from some \r\napproaches to land-based mitigation (high confidence). Plantation, \r\nsingle-species forests in areas which would not naturally support forest, \r\nincluding savanna, natural grasslands and temperate peatlands, and \r\nreplacing native tropical forests on peat soils, have destroyed local \r\nbiodiversity and created a range of problems regarding water supply, \r\nfood supply, fire risk and GHG emissions. Large-scale deployment of \r\nbioenergy, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) \r\nthrough dedicated herbaceous or woody bioenergy crops and non-native \r\nproduction forests, can damage ecosystems directly or through increasing \r\ncompetition for land, with substantial risks to biodiversity. {2.6.3, 2.6.5, \r\n2.6.6, 2.6.7; Box  2"


id: d8362cbf1da8e918d4c990cdc8471e2f
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vector_id: 31540
content:
"2; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter; \r\nCCP7.3.2; Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5}"


id: 3c123fb8575509c9435ef0efc5aa1222
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6807
content:
"We provide assessments of observed and projected impacts of climate \r\nchange across species, biomes (vegetation types), ecosystems and \r\necosystem services, highlighting the processes that are emerging \r\non a global scale. Where sufficient evidence exists, differences in \r\nbiological responses across regions, taxonomic groups or types of \r\necosystems are presented, particularly when such differences provide \r\nmeaningful insights into current or potential future autonomous or \r\nhuman-mediated adaptations. Human interventions that might build \r\nthe resilience of ecosystems and minimise the negative impacts of \r\nclimate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are assessed. \r\nSuch interventions include adaptation strategies and programmes to \r\nsupport biodiversity conservation and Ecosystem-based Adaptation \r\n(EbA)"


id: 22a6843a8d0480db740ac886c1d4b7e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2907
content:
" The assessments were done in the context of the Convention on \r\nBiological Diversity (CBD) and sustainable development goals (SDGs), \r\nwhose contributions to climate resilient development (CRD) pathways \r\nare assessed. This chapter highlights both the successes and failures of \r\nadaptation attempts and considers potential synergies and conflicts \r\nwith land-based climate change mitigation. Knowledge gaps and \r\nsources of uncertainty are included to encourage additional research."


id: 9ef5f07131eb24fcad8bf9f84f9a22b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22553
content:
"Species diversity and ecosystem function influence each other \r\nreciprocally, while the latter forms the necessary basis for ecosystem \r\nservices (Hooper et al., 2012; Mokany et al., 2016). Drivers of impacts \r\non biodiversity, ecosystem function and ecosystem services have been \r\nassessed in reports by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization \r\n(FAO), the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem \r\nServices (IPBES) and the Global Environmental Outlook (Settele et al., \r\n2014; FAO, 2018; IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018e; IPBES, 2018c; IPBES, \r\n2018d; IPBES, 2019; UNEP, 2019; Secretariat of the Convention on \r\nBiological Diversity, 2020)"


id: ff5a97273173fe4f8f6091effdb7a721
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37725
content:
" Most recently, the IPCC Special Report on \r\nClimate Change and Land (SRCCL) provided an assessment on land \r\ndegradation and desertification, GHG emissions and food security in \r\nthe context of global warming (IPCC, 2019c), and the IPBES-IPCC joint \r\nreport on biodiversity and climate change provided a synthesis of the \r\ncurrent understanding of the interactions, synergies and feedbacks \r\nbetween biodiversity and climate change (Portner et  al., 2021). This \r\nchapter builds on and expands the results of these assessments."


id: 77ba3523c409882ffe9ddd023ae88453
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16397
content:
"Previous reports highlighted the possibility of new ecosystem states \r\nstemming from shifts in thermal regimes, species composition, and \r\nenergy and matter flows (Settele et  al., 2014; Shin et  al., 2019). \r\nProjecting such \"tipping points\" (see Glossary Appendix II) has \r\nbeen identified in previous reports as a challenge since monitoring \r\nprogrammes, field studies, and ecosystem and biodiversity modelling \r\ntools do not capture the underlying species-species and species-\r\nclimate interactions sufficiently well to identify how biological \r\ninteractions within and across trophic levels may amplify or dampen \r\nshifts in ecosystem states (Settele et al., 2014; Shin et al., 2019)"


id: e8b6e40befd6471eb9ec42f13b09faba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34126
content:
" Building \r\non these previous analyses and the recent literature, Chapter 2 of AR6 \r\nprovides new insights compared to those of previous assessments by \r\n(i) emphasising freshwater aspects and the interlinkages between \r\nfreshwater and terrestrial systems, (ii) assessing more clearly the link \r\nbetween biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, (iii) assessing the \r\nimpacts associated with climate change mitigation scenarios versus \r\nthose of climate change including interactions with adaptation, and \r\n(iv) where possible, places findings in the context of the United Nations \r\n(UN) SDGs 2030 and services for human societies."


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vector_id: 1502
content:
"Overall confidence in attributing biological changes to climate change \r\ncan be increased in multiple ways (Parmesan et al., 2013), four of which \r\nwe list here. First, confidence rises when the time span of biological \r\nrecords is long, such that decadal trends in climate can be compared \r\nwith decadal trends in biological response, and long-term trends can be \r\nstatistically distinguished from natural variability. Second, confidence \r\ncan be increased by examining a large geographic area, which tends \r\nto diminish the effects of local confounding factors (Parmesan et al., \r\n2013; Daskalova et  al., 2021). Third, confidence is increased when \r\nthere is experimental or empirical evidence of a mechanistic link \r\nbetween particular climate metrics and a biological response. Fourth, \r\nconfidence is increased when particular fingerprints of climate change \r\nare documented that uniquely implicate climate change as the causal \r\ndriver of the biological change (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003)"


id: d6c6e09b676b667af2aec1a5aff51f3c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31299
content:
" These \r\nconditions constitute multiple lines of evidence, which, when they \r\nconverge, can provide very high confidence that climate change is the \r\ncausal driver of an observed change in a particular biological species \r\nor system (Parmesan et al., 2013)."


id: dfb0dbb3d10837e076396c66e20be4e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32693
content:
"When anthropogenic climate change affects ecosystems, it can also \r\naffect ecosystem services for people. Climate change connects to \r\necosystem services by means of three links, i.e., climate change-\r\nspecies-ecosystems-ecosystem services. This chapter assesses these \r\nconnections via all three links when end-to-end published scientific \r\nanalyses are available for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. \r\nThis type of robust evidence exists for some key ecosystem services \r\n(Section  2.5.3, 2.5.4), and is assessed in specific report sections: \r\nbiodiversity habitat creation and maintenance (Sections  2.4, 2.5), \r\nregulation of detrimental organisms and biological processes \r\n(Sections 2.4.2.3, 2.4.2.7, 2.4.4, 2.5.3, 2.6.4, Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS \r\nin this chapter), regulation of climate through ecosystem feedbacks in \r\nterms of carbon storage (Sections 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5) \r\nand albedo (Section  2.5.3"


id: 94b48f6ca62b3e67bba71311bc6eb98e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20904
content:
"Important factors that may confound or obscure effects of climate \r\nchange are the presence of invasive species, changes in land use \r\n(LULCC) and, in freshwater systems, eutrophication (IPCC, 2019a). The \r\ntemporal and spatial scale of studies also affects estimates of impacts. \r\nThe most extreme published estimates of biological change tend to \r\nbe derived from smaller areas and/or shorter time frames (Daskalova \r\net al., 2021); a recent large global analysis of data for 12,415 species \r\nfound that differences in study methodology accounted for most of the \r\nexplained variance in reported range shifts (Lenoir et al., 2020). The \r\nimportance of LULCC is frequently stressed, but there is a paucity of \r\nstudies actually quantifying the relative effects of climate change and \r\nLULCC on species and communities. (Sirami et al"


id: b77d5dcccd739dfd072f84d00bfa934a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26392
content:
", 2017) found only 13 \r\nsuch studies: four concluded that effects of LULCC overrode those of \r\nclimate change, four found that the two drivers independently affected \r\ndifferent species and five found that they acted in synergy."


id: 50e751c11d2afeaed1e0a95be4f581c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10176
content:
"While the major climate hazards at the global level are generally well \r\ndescribed with high confidence, there is less understanding about the \r\nimportance of hazards on ecosystems when they are superimposed \r\n(Allen et al., 2010; Anderegg et al., 2015; Seidl et al., 2017; Dean et al., \r\n2018), and the outcomes are difficult to quantify in future projections \r\n(Handmer et al., 2012). Simultaneous or sequential events (coincident \r\nor compounding events) can lead to an extreme event or impact, even \r\nif each event is not in themselves extreme (Denny et al., 2009; Hinojosa \r\net al., 2019). For example, the compounding effects of SLR, extreme \r\ncoastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow can substantially increase \r\nflooding hazard and impacts on freshwater systems (Moftakhari et al., \r\n2017)"


id: 23b29601714725933be20c1ed618d731
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:13
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3064
content:
" On land, changing rainfall patterns and repeated heat waves \r\nmay interact with biological factors such as altered plant growth \r\nand nutrient allocation under elevated CO2, affecting herbivore rates \r\nand insect outbreaks leading to the widespread dieback of some \r\nforests (e.g., in Australian eucalypt forests) (Gherlenda et  al., 2016; \r\nHoffmann et  al., 2019a). Risk assessments typically only consider a \r\nsingle climate hazard with no changing variability, thereby potentially \r\nunderestimating the actual risk (Milly et al., 2008; Sadegh et al., 2018; \r\nZscheischler et al., 2018; Terzi et al., 2019; Stockwell et al., 2020)."


id: 9ee47119c63efd53689bd815e20f56fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22541
content:
"Extreme events are a natural and important part of many ecosystems, \r\nand many organisms have adapted to cope with long-term \r\nand short-term climate variability within the disturbance regime \r\nexperienced during their evolutionary history (high confidence). \r\nHowever, climate changes, disturbance regime changes and the \r\nmagnitude and frequency of extreme events such as floods, droughts, \r\ncyclones, heat waves and fire have increased in many regions (high \r\nconfidence). These disturbances affect ecosystem functioning, \r\nbiodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence), but are, in \r\ngeneral, poorly captured in impact models (Albrich et  al., 2020b), \r\nalthough this should improve as higher-resolution climate models \r\nthat better capture smaller-scale processes and extreme events \r\nbecome available (Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Extreme events pose \r\nhuge challenges for EbA (IPCC, 2012)"


id: 37329919fc8fbc14eb9f05f08109d12d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6071
content:
" Ecosystem functionality, on \r\nwhich such adaptation measures rely, may be altered or destroyed \r\nby extreme episodic events (Handmer et al., 2012; Lal et al., 2012; Pol \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 37382b903f620b078e7d3b994cc5c24c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 6076
content:
"For example, strong dispersers are less at risk, while species with low \r\ndispersal ability, small ranges and long lifespans (e.g., many plants, \r\nespecially trees, many amphibians and some small mammals) are \r\nmore at risk (IPCC, 2014b; Hamann et  al., 2015) . This is likely to \r\nfavour generalist and invasive species, altering species composition, \r\necosystem structure and function (Clavel et  al., 2011; Buchi and \r\nVuilleumier, 2014). The ability to track suitable climates is substantially \r\nreduced by habitat fragmentation and human modifications of the \r\nlandscape such as dams on rivers and urbanisation (high confidence). \r\nFreshwater systems are particularly at risk of rapid warming, given \r\ntheir naturally fragmented distribution. Velocity of changes in surface \r\ntemperature of inland standing waters globally was estimated as \r\nbeing 3.5 +- 2.3 km per decade from 1861 to 2005. From 2006 to \r\n2099, this is projected to increase from 8.7 +- 5"


id: 1843e770eabad0d2423de6a2a07d36a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 1306
content:
"Despite recent improvements in observational studies and climate \r\nmodelling (Santanello et al., 2015; Stegehuis et al., 2015; PaiMazumder \r\nand Done, 2016; Basara and Christian, 2018; Knelman et al., 2019), \r\nthe potential to quantify or infer formal causal relationships between \r\nmultiple drivers and/or hazards remains limited (Zscheischler and \r\nSeneviratne, 2017; Kleinman et  al., 2019; Miralles et  al., 2019; \r\nYokohata et al., 2019; Harris et al., 2020). The mechanisms underlying \r\nthe response are difficult to identify (e.g., responses to heat stress, \r\ndrought and insects), effects vary among species and at different life \r\nstages, and an initial stress may influence the response to further \r\nstress (Nolet and Kneeshaw, 2018). Additionally, hazards such as \r\ndrought are often exacerbated by societal, industrial and agricultural \r\nwater demands, requiring more sophisticated modelling of the \r\nphysical and human systems (Mehran et al., 2017; Wan et al., 2017)"


id: b7a5501741aae2fda26cdf6c647d07d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 26418
content:
" \r\nObservations of past compound events may not provide reliable \r\nguides as to how future events may evolve, because human activity \r\nand recent climate change continue to interact to influence both \r\nsystem functioning and a climate state not previously experienced \r\n(Seneviratne et al., 2021)"


id: 7932ad53c10c6879522a9dc929a60538
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16636
content:
"Analysis of river flows from 7250 observatories around the world \r\ncovering the years 1971-2010 and identified spatially complex \r\npatterns, with reductions in northeastern Brazil, southern Australia \r\nand the Mediterranean, and increases in northern Europe (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Gudmundsson et  al., 2021). More \r\nthan half of global rivers undergo periodic drying that reduces river \r\nconnectivity (medium evidence, medium agreement). Increased \r\nfrequency and intensity of droughts may cause perennial rivers to \r\nbecome intermittent and intermittent rivers to disappear (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement), threatening freshwater fish in habitats \r\nalready characterised by heat and droughts (Datry et al., 2016; Schneider \r\net  al., 2017; Jaric et  al., 2019). In high-altitude/latitude streams, \r\nreduced glacier and snowpack extent, earlier snowmelt and altered \r\nprecipitation patterns, attributed to climate change, have increased \r\nflow intermittency (Siebers et al"


id: 1f3681f1c8317b06392b958d18ddb930
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 2350
content:
", 2019; Gudmundsson et al., 2021). \r\nPatterns in flow regimes can be directly linked to a variety of processes \r\nshaping freshwater biodiversity, so any climate change-induced \r\nchanges in flow regimes and river connectivity are expected to alter "


id: 5f1a2609ea5c01e2e62c97a1b92101f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12514
content:
"Studies since AR5 have confirmed ongoing and accelerating loss of \r\nlake and river ice in the Northern Hemisphere (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Figure 2.4). In recent decades, systems have been freezing \r\nlater in winter and thawing earlier in spring, reducing ice duration by \r\n>2 weeks per year and leading to an increasing numbers of years with a \r\nloss of perennial ice cover, intermittent ice cover or even an absence of \r\nice (Adrian et al., 2009; Kirillin et al., 2012; Paquette et al., 2015; Adrian \r\net al., 2016; Park et al., 2016; Roberts et al., 2017; Sharma et al., 2019). \r\nThe global extent of river ice declined by 25% between 1984 and 2018 \r\n(Yang et al., 2020). This trend has been more pronounced at higher \r\nlatitudes, consistent with enhanced polar warming (large geographic \r\ncoverage) (Du et al., 2017)"


id: 3d42e26c7760a861fe1d08b281646a60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 7002
content:
"Since AR5, numerous drastic short-term responses have been observed \r\nin lakes and rivers, to both expected seasonal extreme events and \r\nunexpected supra-seasonal extremes extending over multiple seasons. \r\nConsequences for ecosystem functioning are not well understood \r\n(Bogan et al., 2015; Death et al., 2015; Stockwell et al., 2020). Increasing \r\nfrequencies of severe floods and droughts attributed to climate change \r\nare major threats for river ecosystems (Peters et al., 2016; Alfieri et al., \r\n2017). While extreme floods cause massive physical disturbance, \r\nmoderate floods can have positive effects, providing woody debris \r\nthat contributes to habitat complexity and diversity, flushing fine \r\nsediments, dissolving organic carbon and providing important food \r\nsources from terrestrial origins (Peters et al., 2016; Talbot et al., 2018). \r\nDroughts reduce river habitat diversity and connectivity, threatening \r\naquatic species, especially in deserts and arid regions (Bogan et al"


id: ba038f933fc73e4d47611103bc21016a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26807
content:
"Projections of lake water storage are limited by the absence of reliable, \r\nlong-term, homogenous and spatially resolved hydrologic observations \r\n(Hegerl et al., 2015). This uncertainty is reflected in the widely divergent \r\nprojections in response to future climate changes in individual lakes \r\n(Angel and Kunkel, 2010; MacKay and Seglenieks, 2012; Malsy et al., \r\n2012; Notaro et al., 2015) . Selecting models that perform well when \r\ncomparing hindcasted to observed past water storage variation often \r\ndoes little to reduce water storage projection uncertainty (Angel and \r\nKunkel, 2010). This wide range of potential changes complicates lake \r\nmanagement. For information on observed and projected changes in \r\nthe global water cycle and hydrological regimes for streams, lakes, \r\nwetland, groundwater and their implications on water quality and \r\nsocieties, see Chapter 4, this report, and (Douville et al., 2021)"


id: ba2a3387144a599c8cdcd79059416f74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26830
content:
" For the \r\nrole of weather and climate extremes on the global water cycle, see \r\n(Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 239ac296f5fdb222fd4b3fecaf59b292
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3052
content:
"Increases in the frequency and magnitudes of extreme events, attributed to anthropogenic climate change by WGI (IPCC, 2021a), are now \r\ncausing profound negative effects across all realms of the world (marine, terrestrial, freshwater and polar) (medium confidence) (Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021) (Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.2, Chapter 3, Chapters 9-12, this report). Changes to population \r\nabundance, species distributions, local extirpations, and global extinctions are leading to long-term, potentially irreversible shifts in the \r\ncomposition, structure and function of natural systems (medium confidence) (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Harris et al., 2018a; Maxwell \r\net al., 2019; Smale et al., 2019)"


id: 80bbbaba921ef4de459a50850def243d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17778
content:
" These effects have widespread ramifications for ecosystems and the services they provide--physical \r\nhabitat, erosion control, carbon storage, nutrient cycling and water quality--with knock-on effects for tourism, fisheries, forestry and other \r\nnatural resources (2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, 2.5.4) (Kaushal et al., 2018; Heinze et al., 2021; Portner et al., 2021)."


id: 199031fd6af8fe16d11ed0a629e43c10
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1498
content:
"Consensus is emerging that anthropogenic climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of recent marine heat waves (MHWs) \r\n(medium confidence) (Oliver et al., 2018; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). A widespread MHW occurred in the northeast Pacific in 2013-2015, \r\nwith upper ocean temperature anomalies of up to 6.2degC relative to 2002-2012 (Gentemann et al., 2017). This event, termed the 'Blob', \r\nenhanced surface water stratification, decreasing nutrient supply, primary and community production and leading to widespread changes \r\nto open ocean and coastal ecosystems, with geographical shifts of key species across trophic levels, mass strandings of marine mammals, \r\nseabird mortalities and the closure of commercially important fisheries (Cavole et al., 2016; Piatt et al., 2020). The MHW reappeared in \r\n2019 ('Blob 2.0') (Amaya et al"


id: aec676d7a87ed4e2b8c91f729979f893
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25025
content:
", 2020), with similarly high temperature anomalies extending from Alaska to California, but the ecological \r\neffects of this event are expected to differ because the Blob originated in winter, and Blob2.0 intensified in summer (Amaya et al., \r\n2020). Modelling suggests rapid shifts in the geographic distributions of important fish species in response to MHWs (Cheung and \r\nFrolicher, 2020), with projected decreased biomass and distributional shifts of fish at least four times faster and larger than the effects \r\nof decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 (high confidence) (Cheung and Frolicher, 2020). MHWs can \r\nalso dramatically increase CH4 emissions from oceans, a significant positive feedback to global warming (see also Chapter 3, this report) \r\n(Borges et al., 2019)."


id: 3a3ca39927ceaa22885c0e069d87675e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6532
content:
"The Arctic region is warming more than twice as fast as the global mean, and polar organisms and ecosystems are likely to be particularly \r\nvulnerable to heat waves due to their specific thermal niches and physiological thresholds and also the lack of poleward 'refugia' (high \r\nconfidence). The consequences of MHWs are exacerbated by concomitant sea ice melting and the freshening of surface waters, leading \r\nto secondary effects due to osmotic stress and failing pH homeostasis. Since sea ice-associated organisms are often critical components \r\nof polar food chains, cascading effects up to the top predators are expected. In 2015-2016, a MHW occurred in the Gulf of Alaska/Bering \r\nSea (Walsh et al., 2018) which was unprecedented in terms of surface temperatures and ocean heat content, geographical extent, depth \r\nrange and persistence, impacting the entire marine food web"


id: 1f457017acd966fae2c714350cc24802
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2362
content:
" Persistent warming favoured some phytoplankton species and triggered \r\none of the largest algal blooms recorded in this region, with concomitant oyster farm closures due to uncommon paralytic shellfish\u0002poisoning events (Walsh et  al., 2018). There were also massive die-offs of common guillemots (Uria aalge) and puffins (Fratercula \r\ncirrhata), attributed to starvation resulting from warming-induced effects on food supply (Jones et al., 2019). A 2017 survey found a 71% \r\ndecline in the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) since 2015, likely due to an increase in metabolic demand and reduced \r\nprey supply during the MHWs (Barbeaux et al., 2020)."


id: 1124ff9bf289123e6a1864e11679d253
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 175
content:
"Heat waves, storms and floods affect the thermal regime and biogeochemical functioning of lakes and rivers (Woolway and Merchant, 2017; \r\nVicente-Serrano et al., 2020). Extreme heat waves lead to abnormally high water temperatures (Till et al., 2019) and reduce the mixing of \r\nlakes (Woolway et al., 2021), causing a decrease in oxygen and deep-water oxygen renewal (Zhang et al., 2015). Ectotherms such as fish \r\nand invertebrates are particularly susceptible to such temperature and oxygen stress (Stoks et al., 2014). Their metabolic demands increase \r\nwith rising temperature and a suitable habitat is eroded due to both high temperatures and lower oxygen concentrations in lakes and rivers. \r\nTill et al. (2019) attributed 502 fish kill events in the Wisconsin lakes (USA) to warmer summers in lakes that experienced abnormally high \r\nwater temperatures. Such events are predicted to double by 2041-2059 and increase four-fold by 2081-2099 compared to historical levels \r\n(Till et al., 2019)"


id: 9b5e00d1e08b2acc3a1630c4eeb7b194
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21992
content:
" This anticipated increase in die-offs may facilitate warm-water fish species displacing cool-water species (Hansen et al., \r\n2017; Jennings et al., 2021). Floods mobilise nutrients and sediment, and aid dispersal of invasive species in rivers (Death et al., 2015), while \r\ndrought extremes reduce river connectivity, threatening biodiversity in rivers (section 2.3.3.5) (Tickner et al., 2020)."


id: 461f394e38c97db8f067f825a8182b41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8411
content:
"These examples show that the impact of an extreme event is a function of its characteristics and those of the exposed ecosystem. \r\nThe timing, frequency, absolute magnitude and geographic extent of the extreme event, relative to antecedent conditions and the life \r\ncycle, resistance and resilience of the natural community, all determine the biological response (Figure Cross-Chapter Box Extremes.1) \r\n(Hillebrand et al., 2018; Gruber et al., 2021). The impact appears to be greater when extreme events occur more frequently, particularly \r\nwhen the interval between events is insufficient to allow recovery to previous population sizes (e.g., frequent fires and coral bleaching) \r\nor coincides with vulnerable life-cycle stages, even when populations are adapted to cope with such disturbances. Events occurring over \r\nlarge spatial areas reduce the potential for recolonisation from nearby populations (e.g., regional droughts causing widespread declines)"


id: 8c09da006f85709c4badd0724e5f0ad7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19543
content:
" \r\nOften the magnitude of extreme events exceeds historical levels, so organisms are less likely to be adapted to them, particularly when \r\nseveral extremes coincide (e.g., high water temperature and drought) (Duke et al., 2017). When hazards occur simultaneously (compound \r\nevents), the impacts of extremes can be substantially aggravated, triggering a cascade of effects in ecosystems (Gruber et al., 2021)."


id: 39fcb2619cecdfdd5518640b795d6e92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6497
content:
"Several characteristics increase vulnerability: low or narrow thermal tolerance, high habitat specificity, low dispersal ability, long \r\ngeneration times, low competitive ability and life-cycle constraints that limit recovery or recolonisation. Populations living close to one \r\nor more limiting factors near range edges are also vulnerable (Arafeh-Dalmau et al., 2019). Understanding these characteristics can \r\ninform management intervention to aid recovery following an extreme event. For instance, knowledge of the flying fox's physiological \r\ntemperature threshold led to successful interventions, including misting populations to reduce mortality (Mo and Roache, 2020), and the \r\ndevelopment of a 'heat stress forecaster', an online tool which uses weather forecasts to identify roosts at risk of extreme heat events \r\n(Ratnayake et  al., 2019)"


id: f0474b2a4c60e8132e1b0fbc7e19c7da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35306
content:
" This early warning system increases the preparedness of wildlife management and conservation agencies, \r\nenabling efficient allocation of management resources towards the locations that are likely to be the most affected."


id: 1bd47a64fcb324cb3e609afcf3e030fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1838
content:
"By the time of AR5, >4000 species with long-term observational \r\ndata had been studied in the context of climate change (Parmesan, \r\n2006; Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). Since then, thousands of new \r\nstudies and additional species have been added, leading to higher \r\nconfidence in climate change attribution (Table 2.2) (Scheffers et al., \r\n2016; Wiens, 2016; Cohen et al., 2018; Feeley et al., 2020). Freshwater \r\nhabitats have been under-represented in prior reports, but new \r\nlong-term datasets, coupled with laboratory and field experiments, are \r\nimproving our understanding. This assessment stresses observations \r\nfrom lakes and streams. As numbers of studies increase and data is \r\nincreasingly extracted from areas with high LULCC, attribution is more \r\ndifficult as habitat loss and fragmentation are known major drivers \r\nof changes in terrestrial and freshwater species (Ramsar Convention \r\non Wetlands, 2018; IPBES, 2019; Tickner et  al., 2020)"


id: 34c9d49059db7a7391436af0a1edbe9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 5710
content:
" Due to the \r\noverwhelming volume of literature, the assessments for chapter 2 \r\nconcentrates on results from large continental or global-scale reviews \r\nand meta-analyses. Most of the assessment of studies conducted in \r\nindividual countries can be found in Regional chapters, but this chapter \r\ndoes include studies across very large countries or political entities \r\nthat occupy much of a continent (e.g., Canada, the USA, Australia or \r\nEurope), or studies that provide rare or uniquely-relevant information."


id: 8f9c67964798bdd18ab41e5dc6137df0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20143
content:
"During their range shifts, forest pests remain climate-sensitive. For \r\nexample, the distribution of the western spruce budworm is limited at its \r\nwarm range edges by the adverse effects of mild winters on overwinter \r\nsurvival, and at its cool range by the ability to arrive at a cold-resistant \r\nstage before winter arrives (Regniere and Nealis, 2019). We might \r\ntherefore expect tree mortality from insect outbreaks to be most severe \r\nat sites climatically less suitable for the plants, where plants would be \r\nunder more stress. However, (Jaime et al., 2019), using separate species \r\ndistribution models (SDMs) (MaxEnt) for the insects and plants, found \r\nthat observed mortality of Scots pine from bark beetles was highest at \r\nsites that were most climatically suitable for the trees as well as for the \r\ninsects"


id: 6c80275e8ea0ec20d3a358130e2f4324
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14695
content:
" In a study of tree mortality in California, bark beetles selectively \r\nkilled highly stressed fir trees, but killed pines according to their size \r\nirrespective of stress status (Stephenson et al., 2019)."


id: 93c8967ccd8826b33c28c42d0597d43b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
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vector_id: 20763
content:
"latitudinal 'warm edge' range limits, and were at relatively undisturbed \r\nsites stated by the authors to be under increasing climatic stress. By \r\nthis criterion, climate-caused local extinctions were widespread among \r\nplants and animals globally, detected in 47% of 976 species examined. \r\nThe percentage of species suffering these extinctions was higher in the \r\nTropics (55%) than in temperate habitats (39%), higher in freshwater \r\n(74%) than in marine (51%) or terrestrial (46%) habitats, and higher \r\nin animals (50%) than in plants (39%). The difference between plants \r\nand animals varied with latitude; in the temperate zone, a much higher \r\nproportion of animals than plants suffered range-limit extinctions \r\n(38.6% of 207 animal species vs. 8.6% of 105 plants, P < 0.0001) \r\nwhile at tropical sites, local extinction rates were (nonsignificantly) \r\nhigher in plants (59% of 155 species) than in animals (52% of 349 \r\nspecies), the reverse of their temperate-zone relationship"


id: a3b56fbfb7dd7e5e6ee354385c049de7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23320
content:
" Rates varied \r\nacross animal groups from 35% in mammals, to 43% in birds, 56% in \r\ninsects and 59% in fish (Wiens, 2016)."


id: 689cbcd9083d28f8a2d33bea389bbe7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
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vector_id: 14049
content:
"Freshwater population extinctions are mainly due to habitat loss, \r\nthe introduction of alien species, pollution, over-harvesting (Gozlan \r\net  al., 2019; IPBES, 2019) and climate change-induced epidemic \r\ndiseases (Pounds et al., 2006)(see Section 2.4.2.7.1). Climate warming, \r\nparticularly through the intensification and severity of droughts, \r\ncontributes to the disappearance of small ponds which hold rare and \r\nendemic species (Bagella et al., 2016). Systematic data on the extent \r\nand biology of small ponds is, however, lacking on the global scale. \r\nExtreme heat waves can lead to large local fish kills in lakes (see \r\nSection 2.3.3.5), when water temperature and oxygen concentrations \r\nsurpass critical thresholds and threatening cold-water fish and \r\namphibians (Thompson et  al., 2012). Evidence of a local extinction \r\nof some invertebrate species with a 1.4degC-1.7degC rise in mean \r\nannual stream winter temperature from 1981 to 2005 was reported \r\nin Abrahams et  al. (2013)"


id: 4ecf3d9cad324f4bd62f7bc7688ec9f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9835
content:
" Population declines of specialist species \r\nin glacier-fed streams, such as the non-biting midge Diamesa davisi \r\n(Chironomidae), can be attributed to climate-change-driven glacier \r\nretreat (Cauvy-Fraunie and Dangles, 2019), and the flatworm Crenobia \r\nalpina (Planariidae) has been reported as locally extinct in the Welsh \r\nLlyn Brianne river (Durance and Ormerod, 2010; Larsen et al., 2018)."


id: d30e91d02f45c33fa0f7c941256b2ee9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30727
content:
"Disappearances of local populations within a species range are more \r\nfrequent and better documented than whole species' extinctions, \r\nand attribution to climate change is possible for sites with minimal \r\nconfounding non-climatic stressors. Changes of temperature extremes \r\nare often more important to these local extinction rates than changes of \r\nmean annual temperature (high confidence) (see Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.2, \r\n2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.6, Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter) (Parmesan \r\net al., 2013). A global meta-analysis of 236 species of birds, mammals, \r\namphibians, fish, invertebrates and plants across 132 independent \r\nstudies found that changes in population abundances were strongly \r\nrelated to temperature variability globally, and significantly related \r\nto precipiation variability in lower latitudes (Pearce-Higgins et  al., \r\n2015)"


id: e584e0a34834b22d0c00ffa661173563
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 33619
content:
" In a global study of 538 diverse plant and animal species, sites \r\nwith local extinctions were associated with smaller changes of mean \r\nannual temperature but larger and faster changes of hottest yearly \r\ntemperatures than sites where populations persisted (Roman-Palacios \r\nand Wiens, 2020). Near warm range limits, 44% of species had suffered \r\nlocal extinctions. In both temperate and tropical regions, sites with local \r\nextinction had greater increases in maximum temperatures than those \r\nwithout: a Tmax increase of 0.456degC and 0.316degC versus a Tmean increase \r\nof 0.153degC and 0.061degC for temperate (n = 505 sites) and tropical (n = \r\n76 sites), respectively (P < 0.001) (Roman-Palacios and Wiens, 2020)."


id: 21bac655e3a217467fa58e6bf1fabbfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
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vector_id: 2736
content:
"Climate change has already caused some species to become extinct and is expected to drive more species to extinction. \r\nExtinction of species has always occurred in the history of our planet, but human activities are accelerating this \r\nprocess, such that the estimated 10% of species that humans have driven to extinction in the past 10,000 years is \r\nroughly 1,000 times the natural background rate. Recent research predicts that climate change would add to that, \r\nwith estimates that about one-third of all plant and animal species are at high risk of extinction by 2070 if climate \r\nchange continues at its current rate. Species can adapt to some extent to these rapidly changing climate patterns. \r\nWe are seeing changes in behaviour, dispersal to new areas as the climate becomes more suitable, and genetic \r\nevolution. However, these changes are small, and adaptations are limited"


id: 33610f683769113e24df34075ed88820
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5502
content:
" Species that cannot adapt beyond their \r\nbasic climate tolerances (their ability to survive extremes of temperature or rainfall) or successfully reproduce in \r\na different climate environment from that in which they have evolved, will simply disappear. In the Arctic, for \r\nexample, the sea ice is melting and, unless there are deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, will probably disappear \r\nin summer within the century. This means that the animals that have evolved to live on sea ice--polar bears and \r\nsome seals--will become extinct soon after the ice disappears."


id: e3bd2086cc9b873f051466b545f90245
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33307
content:
"Extending protected zones and their connectivity. The ability of species to move to new locations and track climate change are \r\nvery limited, particularly when a habitat has been turned into a crop field or a city. To help species move between \r\ntheir natural habitats, we can increase the connectedness of protected areas, or simply create small patches or \r\ncorridors of semi-wild nature within a largely agricultural or inhabited region that encourages wildlife to move \r\nthrough an area, and in which they are protected from hunting and poisons. These semi-wild protected areas can \r\nbe very small, like the hedgerows between fields in England that provide both a habitat for many flowers, birds \r\nand insects and corridors to move between larger protected areas. Alternatively, it can just be an abandoned field \r\nthat is now growing 'weeds' and with a ban on use of pesticides or herbicides, hunting or farming"


id: 495dfddeda6cf7a14fb5912a90249d13
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 8924
content:
" For instance, \r\nin the USA, private landowners get a tax break by making their land a 'wildlife conservation' area by using no \r\npesticide, not cutting weeds too often, putting up brush piles and bird boxes for nesting by mammals and birds, \r\nand providing a stable water source."


id: 2a1bb3d83b1eb5f37f16039e70b779e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4050
content:
"Physical changes in lakes (see Section  2.3.3) have affected primary \r\nproduction (see Section  2.4.4.5.2), algal-bloom formation and \r\ncomposition, zooplankton and fish size distribution, and species \r\ncomposition (Urrutia-Cordero et al., 2017; Gozlan et al., 2019; Seltmann \r\net al., 2019). Declines in the abundance of cold-stenothermal species, \r\nparticularly the Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), coregonids and smelt, \r\nand increases in eurythermal fish (e.g., the thermo-tolerant carp \r\nCyprinus carpio, common bream, pike perch, roach and shad) have \r\nbeen observed in northern temperate lakes associated with warming \r\ntrends (medium evidence, high agreement) (Jeppesen et  al., 2012; \r\nJeppesen et al., 2014). These changes increase predation pressure on \r\nzooplankton and reduce grazing pressure on phytoplankton, which \r\nmay result in higher phytoplankton biomass (De Senerpont Domis \r\net al., 2013; Jeppesen et al., 2014; Adrian et al., 2016)"


id: a57fc56f3b55a720eda6e973bd933165
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23608
content:
" Reduction in \r\nlake mixing lowers the concentration of nutrients in the epilimnion and \r\nmay lead to higher silicon-to-phosphorous ratios that negatively affect \r\ndiatom growth (Yankova et al., 2017) or overall primary productivity \r\n(see Section 2.4.4.5.2)."


id: 65a046ca525f3bb81601294ccd4e7003
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13565
content:
"The most common type of community change takes the form of in situ\r\ndecreases in cold-adapted species and increases in warm-adapted \r\nspecies (Bowler et  al., 2017; Hughes et  al., 2018; Kuhn and Gegout, \r\n2019; Feeley et al., 2020). This process has lead to increases of species \r\nrichness on mountaintops and decreased richness at adjacent lower \r\nelevations (medium evidence, high agreement) (Forister et  al., 2010; \r\nSteinbauer et al., 2018). While it is also expected from observed range \r\nshifts of individual species that species richness should increase along \r\ntropical/temperate ecotones and along temperate/boreal ecotones, to \r\ndate this has not been well documented"


id: e613f296c2679856e4fab1f03cca9d4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33687
content:
" Lewthwaite et al (Lewthwaite \r\nand Mooers, 2022) documented a small increase in local richness across \r\nCanada for 265 species of butterflies, but the stronger effect was an \r\nhomogenization across the region, with generalist species generally \r\nexpanding into new sites and leading to lower Beta-diversity (lower \r\ndiversity among sites). In a study of 66 bumble bee species across North \r\nAmerica and Europe, Soroye et al (Soroye et al., 2020) did not find the \r\nexpected pattern, with most sites, regardless of latitude, declining in \r\nspecies richness, even when individual species benefited from warming \r\nor increased precipitation at some sites. Observed shifts in community \r\ncomposition have consequences for species' interactions. Such indirect \r\neffects of climate change have been shown to often have greater \r\nimpacts on species than the direct effects of climate itself, particularly \r\nfor higher-level consumers (Cahill et al., 2013; Ockendon et al., 2014)."


id: de704a0e7d4c829e83f42c3709e8455d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32495
content:
"Observed effects of climate change on freshwater invertebrates are \r\nvariable (Knouft and Ficklin, 2017). In glacier-fed streams globally, climate \r\nchange has caused community turnover and changes in abundances in \r\nterms of increased generalist and decreased specialist species (Lencioni, \r\n2018; Cauvy-Fraunie and Dangles, 2019). In turn, dragonflies in flowing \r\nwaters, monitored during the warming period from 1988 through \r\n2006 in Europe, did not show consistent changes in their distribution \r\n(Grewe et al., 2013), reviewed in Knouft and Ficklin (2017). Long-term \r\ntrends in the species composition and community structure of stream \r\nmacro-invertebrates, specifically a general trend for decreases in species \r\ncharacteristic of cold, fast-flowing waters and increases of thermophilic \r\nspecies typical of stagnant or slow-moving waters, have been attributed \r\nto climate change (robust evidence, high agreement) (Daufresne et al., \r\n2007; Chessman, 2015)"


id: 85421396b92b4f2dadef27a3832b71c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18492
content:
"As climate change is increasing the movements of species into new \r\nareas, there is concern about how exotic species are being impacted, \r\neither by becoming invasive or by already invasive species gaining \r\neven more advantage over native species. Modelling predicts that the \r\neffects of climate warming on food web structure and stability favour \r\nthe success of invading species (Sentis et al., 2021). Both simulated \r\nwarming experiments (Zettlemoyer et  al., 2019) and long-term \r\nobservations (Willis et  al., 2010) have found phenologies of exotic \r\nspecies to respond more adaptively to warming than those of natives; \r\nin the long-term observations, the success of exotics was attributed \r\nto their greater phenological responsiveness"


id: c6f29192e6a675f4b3250222735c2044
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28883
content:
" In an expert assessment \r\nof the future relative importance of different drivers of the impacts of \r\nbiological invasions, climate change was named as the most important \r\ndriver in polar regions, second-most important in temperate regions \r\n(after trade/transport), and third-most important in the tropics (after \r\ntrade/transport and human demography/migration) (Essl et al., 2020)."


id: f5591f570c544d2ddfa2fe9571422029
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36124
content:
"The rapid rate of the advancement of spring events in the 1990s \r\nslowed down in the 2000s, and stalled or even reversed in some \r\nregions (Menzel et al., 2020). Wang et al. (2019) noted, from remote \r\nsensing, that during the 'global warming hiatus' from 1998 to 2012, \r\nthere were no global trends in either spring green-up or autumn \r\ncolouring. Annual crops, the timing of which is determined by farmers, \r\nwere an exception. When natural systems were advancing fast prior to \r\n1998, farmers advanced more slowly, but during the natural 'hiatus', \r\nfarmed crops advanced faster than wild plants and cultivated trees \r\n(Menzel et al., 2020). In a long (67 years) European time series (Menzel \r\net al., 2020), autumn leaf colouring showed delays attributed to winter \r\nand spring warming in 57% of observations (mean delay of 0"


id: a2275cef04c97e115ebd43c6add9e724
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23075
content:
"36 days \r\nper decade); spring and summer phenologies advanced in 89% of \r\nwild plants, despite decreased winter chilling, with around 60% of \r\ntrends significant and 'strongly attributable' to winter and spring \r\nwarming; and the growing season lengthened in 84% of cases (mean \r\nlengthening 0.26 days yr-1) (Table 2.2)."


id: 6c31aec7e7b5657c5d4d68c4a63fcb5e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14652
content:
"However, not all exotic species become invasive. As novel climate \r\nconditions develop, novel communities made up of new combinations \r\nof species are emerging as populations and species adapt and shift \r\ntheir ranges differentially, not always with negative consequences \r\n(high confidence) (Dornelas et al., 2014; Evers et al., 2018; Teixeira and \r\nFernandes, 2020). Novel communities differ in composition, structure, \r\nfunction and evolutionary trajectories, as the proportions of specialists \r\nand generalists, native, introduced and range-shifting species change \r\nand species interactions are altered, ultimately affecting ecosystem \r\ndynamics and functioning (Lurgi et  al., 2012; Hobbs et  al., 2014; \r\nHeger and van Andel, 2019). The exact nature of novel communities is \r\ndifficult to predict because species-level uncertainties propagate at the \r\ncommunity level due to ecological interactions (Williams and Jackson, \r\n2007)"


id: 693abd8e33d5e97e8f2848264ba8c230
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14147
content:
" However, observations, experimental mesocosms (Bastazini \r\net al., 2021), and theoretical models (Lurgi et al., 2012; Sentis et al., \r\n2021) provide support that novel communities will continue to emerge \r\nwith climate change (medium confidence)."


id: e21e43445943cf3c89d775a629d098e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33071
content:
"Changes in freshwater systems are consistent with changes in terrestrial \r\nsystems: earlier development of phytoplankton and zooplankton and \r\nearlier spawning by fish in spring as well as extension of the growing \r\nseason are occurring (robust evidence, high agreement) (Adrian et al., \r\n2009; De Senerpont Domis et al., 2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Thackeray et al., \r\n2016). Phenological changes in lakes have been related to rising water \r\ntemperatures, reduced ice cover and prolonged thermal stratification \r\n(increasing evidence and agreement since AR5; very high confidence). \r\nCrozier and Hutchings (2014) reviewed the phenological changes \r\nin fish and documented that changes in the timing of migration and \r\nreproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival \r\nand fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature"


id: c420aad426674c8a761be01412b52c8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28421
content:
" \r\nThe median return time of Atlantic salmon to rivers in Newfoundland \r\nand Labrador advanced by 12-21 days over the past decades, associated \r\nwith overall warmer conditions (Dempson et al., 2017)."


id: a1c91712fa542f574eb29d9c651478d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23017
content:
"Table 2.2 |  Global fingerprints of climate change impacts across wild species. (Updated from (Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). For each study for which data were made available, a \r\nresponse for an individual species or functional group was classified as (1) no response (i.e., no significant change in the measured trait over time), (2) if a significant change was \r\nfound, the response was classified as either consistent or not consistent with expectations according to local or regional climate trends. Percentages are approximate and estimated \r\nfor the studies as a whole. Individual analyses within the studies may differ. The specific metrics of climate change analysed for associations with biological change vary somewhat \r\nacross studies, but most use changes in local or regional temperatures (e.g., mean monthly T or mean annual T), with some using precipitation metrics (e.g., total annual rainfall)"


id: ef51cde58429947a6a7813126503fff9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35133
content:
" \r\nFor example, a consistent response would be poleward range shifts in areas that are warming. Probability (P) of getting the observed ratio of consistent-to-not consistent responses \r\nby chance was <10-13 for (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003; Root et al., 2005; Poloczanska et al., 2013) and <0.001 for Rosenzweig et al. (2008). The last collumn \r\ndistinguishes studies that were designed for attribution to climate change (e.g. by analysing only long-term data from relatively undisturbed habitats (see section 2.1.3 and 2.4.1)\r\n(Parmesan et al., 2013; Cramer et al., 2014) from those that analysed all available data, including data from areas highly-impacted by non-climate drivers (e.g. LULCC)."


id: 752722c424dc9c9fd2b293b87bec39ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16027
content:
"A lack of understanding of physiological constraints and mechanisms \r\nremains a barrier to predicting many of the ecological effects \r\nof climate change (Bozinovic et  al., 2011; Vazquez et  al., 2017; \r\nGonzalez-Tokman et  al., 2020). Many behavioural, morphological \r\nand physiological responses are highly species- and context-specific, \r\nmaking generalisations difficult (Bodensteiner et  al., 2021). Recent \r\nadvances in mechanistic understanding (from experiments), in \r\nprocess-based modelling (including micro-climates and developmental \r\nprocesses) (Carter and Janzen, 2021) and in the sophistication of \r\nniche models (Kearney et  al., 2009) have improved projections, but \r\ncomprehensive tests of geographic patterns and processes in thermal \r\ntolerance and plasticity are still lacking, with studies limited to a few \r\nphylogenetically restricted analyses showing mixed results (Gunderson \r\nand Stillman, 2015)"


id: d2e6538d7cfb1d05be134ef529e5f665
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30701
content:
" Improved understanding of the mechanistic basis \r\nfor observed geographic patterns in thermal tolerance and plasticity \r\nis needed to identify the physiological limits of species, the potential \r\nfor adaptation and the presence of evolutionary trade-offs, which will \r\nstrongly influence population declines, species range shifts, invasive \r\ninteractions and the success of conservation interventions (Cooke \r\net al., 2021; Ryan and Gunderson, 2021)."


id: 4236ebbdb85e554b8a0dc09297887dd2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7816
content:
"Evidence is weak for a consistent reduction in body size across \r\ntaxonomic groups in terrestrial animals (low confidence) (Siepielski \r\net  al., 2019). Decreased body size in warmer climates (as higher \r\nsurface area-to-volume ratios maximise heat loss) is expected, based \r\non biogeographic patterns such as Bergmann's rule, but both increases \r\nand decreases have been documented in mammals, birds, lizards \r\nand invertebrates and were attributed to climate change (Teplitsky \r\nand Millien, 2014; Gotanda et  al., 2015; Gardner et  al., 2019; Hill \r\net al., 2021). Contrasting patterns (increased body size) may be due \r\nto short-term modifications in selection pressures (e.g., changes to \r\npredation and competition), variation in life histories or as a result \r\nof interactions with climate variables other than temperature (e.g., \r\nchanges to food availability along with rainfall changes) and other \r\ndisturbances (Yom-Tov and Yom-Tov, 2004; Gardner et al., 2019; Wilson \r\net  al"


id: 1ccc0889f94d8bad8da60c4da3102f21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1983
content:
", 2019) or use of different body size measurements (linear vs. \r\nvolumetric dimensions) (Salewski et al., 2014)."


id: 5a10132973fe223cc630fbf4b7ba8bc3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11682
content:
"Several lines of evidence suggest the evolution of melanism in \r\nresponse to climate change (low confidence), with colour changes \r\nassociated with thermoregulation being demonstrated in butterflies \r\n(Zeuss et  al., 2014; MacLean et  al., 2016; MacLean et  al., 2019a), \r\nbeetles (de Jong and Brakefield, 1998; Brakefield and de Jong, 2011; \r\nZvereva et  al., 2019), dragonflies (Zeuss et  al., 2014) and phasmids \r\n(Nosil et al., 2018). Such changes may represent decreased phenotypic \r\ndiversity and, potentially, genetic diversity (low confidence), but \r\nthe consequences of climate change for the genetic structure and \r\ndiversity of populations have not been widely assessed (Pauls et al., \r\n2013). Simplistically, the thermal melanism hypothesis suggests \r\nthat lighter (higher-reflectance) individuals should be fitter and \r\ntherefore be selected for in a warmer climate (Clusella-Trullas et al., \r\n2007). However, several biotic (e.g"


id: e61cd2996c20117c8a8f7edabfd81fb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33694
content:
", thermoregulatory requirements, \r\npredator avoidance and signalling) and abiotic (e.g., UV, moisture \r\nand inter-annual variability) factors interact to influence changes in \r\ncolour, making attribution to climate change across species and broad \r\ngeographic regions difficult (Kingsolver and Buckley, 2015; Stuart-Fox \r\net al., 2017; Clusella-Trullas and Nielsen, 2020)."


id: 1b6899f28fd1bb881c5c40d0ef603b32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1772
content:
"Assessment of changes in diseases of terrestrial and freshwater wild \r\norganisms was scarce in WGII AR4, AR5, IPCC SR1.5 and IPCC SRCCL. \r\nFurther, most emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are zoonoses, that is, \r\nthey are transmissible between humans and animals, and are climate \r\nsensitive (Woolhouse et al., 2001; Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria, \r\n2005; McIntyre et  al., 2017; Salyer et  al., 2017). AR4 found \r\nweak-to-moderate evidence that disease vectors and their diseases \r\nhad changed their distributions in concert with climate change, but \r\nattribution studies were lacking (Smith et al., 2014). In AR5, WGII AR5 \r\nChapter 11, geographic expansion of a few VBDs to higher latitudes \r\nand elevations were detected and associated with regional climate \r\ntrends, but the non-climatic drivers were not well assessed, leading to \r\na medium confidence in attribution (Smith et al., 2014))"


id: e1fd0d569c25d3fb78e868014c51b173
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33053
content:
" Here, we build \r\non previous assessments by focussing on changes in the population \r\ndynamics and geographic distribution of diseases in wild animals as \r\nwell as diseases in humans and domestic animals that are harboured, \r\namplified and transmitted by wild animal reservoir hosts and vectors."


id: a9d16a02cf19886dd6d26d0db315408c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24249
content:
"There is increasing evidence of the role of extreme events in disease \r\noutbreaks (very high confidence) (Tjaden et  al., 2018; Bryson et  al., \r\n2020). Heat waves have been associated with outbreaks of helminth \r\npathogens, especially in sub-Arctic and Arctic areas. For example, a \r\nsevere outbreak of microfilaremia, a VBD spread by mosquitoes and \r\nflies, plagued reindeer in northern Europe following extreme high \r\ntemperatures (Laaksonen et  al., 2010). More frequent and severe \r\nextreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves and storms \r\ncan either increase or decrease outbreaks, depending upon the \r\nregion and disease (robust evidence, high agreement) (Anyamba \r\net  al., 2001; Marcheggiani et  al., 2010; Brown and Murray, 2013; \r\nPaz, 2015; Boyce et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2016b; Wilcox et al., 2019; \r\nNosrat et al., 2021)"


id: 7c9b8cb03123312e9f55869c750edd26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17202
content:
" Heavy precipitation events have been shown to \r\nincrease some infectious diseases with aquatic life-cycle components \r\nsuch as mosquito-borne, helminth, and rodent-borne diseases (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Anyamba et al., 2001; Zhou et al., 2005; \r\nWu et  al., 2008; Brown and Murray, 2013; Anyamba et  al., 2014; \r\nBoyce et al., 2016). Conversely, flooding also increases flow rate and \r\ndecreases parasite load and diversity in other aquatic wildlife (Hallett \r\nand Bartholomew, 2008; Bjork and Bartholomew, 2009; Marcogliese, \r\n2016; Marcogliese et al., 2016) and can reduce mosquito abundance \r\nby flushing them out of the system (Paaijmans et al., 2007; Paz, 2015)."


id: 2f13a131a55d4519e075ea7ebebaeb9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4836
content:
"High Arctic regions have warmed by more than double the global \r\naverage, >2degC in most areas (Sections 2.3.1.1.2, Figure 2.11, and Atlas \r\n11.2.1.2 in (IPCC, 2021a)). Experimental field ecology studies and \r\ncomputational models of Arctic and sub-Arctic regions indicate that \r\nmilder winters have reduced the mortality of vectors and reservoir hosts \r\nand increased their habitat as forested taiga expands into previously \r\ntreeless tundra (Table  SM2.1) (Parkinson et  al., 2014). Warmer \r\ntemperatures and longer seasonal windows have allowed faster \r\nreproduction/replication, accelerated development and increased the \r\nnumber of generations per year of pathogens, vectors and some host \r\nanimals, which, in turn, increases the populations of disease organisms \r\nand disease transmission (Sections 2.4.2.4, 2.4.4.3.3)"


id: 5671549a8d66a3c122eee3d0c8fcaf7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11077
content:
" Higher numbers \r\nof ticks, mosquitoes, Culicoides biting midges, deer flies, horseflies \r\nand Simuliidae black flies, that transmit a variety of pathogens, are \r\nbeing documented in high-latitude regions and where they have been \r\nhistorically absent (robust evidence, high agreement) (Waits et  al., \r\n2018; Caminade et  al., 2019; Gilbert, 2021). In concert with these \r\npoleward shifts of hosts and vectors, pathogens, particularly tick-borne \r\npathogens and helminth infections, have increased dramatically in \r\nincidence and severity from once-rare occurrences and have appeared \r\nin new regions (very high confidence) (Caminade et al., 2019; Gilbert, \r\n2021)."


id: d627d8c76b92323829fbe20f83bc3e73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31204
content:
"Bd is not universally harmful; it has been recorded as endemic in frog \r\npopulations that do not suffer disease, where it may be commensal \r\nrather than parasitic (Puschendorf et al., 2006; Puschendorf et al., 2011; \r\nRowley and Alford, 2013). Projections of future impacts are difficult, as \r\nthe virulence is variable across Bd populations and dependent upon the \r\nevolutionary and ecological history and evolutionary potential of both \r\na local amphibian population and the endemic or invading Bd (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Retallick et al., 2004; Daskin et al., 2011; \r\nPuschendorf et al., 2011; Phillips and Puschendorf, 2013; Rowley and \r\nAlford, 2013; Zumbado-Ulate et al., 2014; Sapsford et al., 2015; Voyles \r\net al., 2018; Bradley et al., 2019; Fisher and Garner, 2020; McMillan \r\net  al., 2020). Further, specific local habitats might serve as regional \r\nclimate refugia from chytrid infection (e.g., hot and dry) (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Zumbado-Ulate et al"


id: 5df5ca316d6344348458708f111f3118
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12317
content:
"Exploitation of wildlife and degradation of natural habitats have \r\nincreased opportunities for a 'spill over' of pathogens from wildlife \r\nto human populations and also the emergence of zoonotic disease \r\nepidemics and pandemics (robust evidence, high agreement); animal \r\nand human migrations driven by climate change have added to \r\nthis increased risk (medium evidence, medium agreement) (see \r\nSection  2.4.2.1, Chapter 8, Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in \r\nChapter 5) (Patz et  al., 2004; Cleaveland et  al., 2007; Karesh et  al., \r\n2012; Altizer et al., 2013; Allen et al., 2017; Plowright et al., 2017; Faust \r\net al., 2018; Carlson et al., 2020; Gibb et al., 2020; Hockings et al., 2020; \r\nIPBES, 2020; Volpato et  al., 2020; Glidden et  al., 2021)"


id: a0df157989e7519be0d11b6de1fafe7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22860
content:
" Agricultural \r\nlosses and subsequent food scarcity, increasing due to climate change, \r\ncan also lead to an increase in the use of bushmeat, and thus increase \r\nthe risk of diseases jumping from wild animals to humans (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Brashares et al., 2004; Leroy et al., 2004; \r\nWolfe et al., 2004; Rosen and Smith, 2010; Kurpiers et al., 2016)."


id: f4d143062ee0d99af5886e27245b0f70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36025
content:
"Warmer temperatures have increased blood-feeding insect harassment \r\nof reindeer with compounding consequences: (1) increased insect-bite \r\nrates lead to higher parasite loads, (2) time spent by reindeer in trying \r\nto escape biting flies reduces foraging while simultaneously increasing \r\ntheir energy expenditure, (3) the combination of (1) and (2) leads to \r\npoor body condition which subsequently leads to (4) reduced winter \r\nsurvival and fecundity (Mallory and Boyce, 2017). As temperatures \r\nwarm and connectivity increases between the Arctic and the rest of the \r\nworld, tourism, resource extraction and increased commercial transport \r\nwill create additional risks of biological invasion by infectious agents \r\nand their hosts (Pauchard et al., 2016)"


id: 76b087163d932bf8806aebbc7ee88961
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16253
content:
" These increases in introduction \r\nrisk compounded with climate change have already begun to harm \r\nIndigenous Peoples dependent on hunting and herding livestock \r\n(horses and reindeer) that are suffering increased pathogen infection \r\n(high confidence) (Deksne et al., 2020; Stammler and Ivanova, 2020)."


id: 57f2fc3720e3975b166fefd8f799b1d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11341
content:
"Climate change further increases risk by altering pathogen and host animal (1) geographic ranges and habitats; (2) \r\nsurvival, growth and development; (3) reproduction and replication; (4) transmission and exposure (5) behaviour; \r\nand (6) access to immunologically naive animals and people who lack resistance to infection. This can lead to \r\nnovel disease emergence in new places, more frequent and larger outbreaks, and longer or shifted seasons of \r\ntransmission. Climate change is making it possible for many EIDs to colonise historically colder areas that are \r\nbecoming warmer and wetter in temperate and polar regions and in the mountains. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) \r\nare diseases spread by vectors such as mosquitoes, sand flies, kissing bugs and ticks. For example, ticks that carry the \r\nvirus that causes tick-borne encephalitis have moved into the northern subarctic regions of Asia and Europe"


id: a90e480f243728987910b0deb31bbc83
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24120
content:
" Viruses \r\nlike dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis are emerging in Nepal in hilly and mountainous areas. Novel \r\noutbreaks of Vibrio bacteria seafood poisoning are being traced to the the Baltic States and Alaska where they were \r\nnever documented before. Many scientific studies show that the transmission of infectious disease and the number \r\nof individuals infected depends on rainfall and temperature; climate change often makes these conditions more \r\nfavourable for disease transmission."


id: c6b3d72dbcc7cd171cbc8d51b5c1437e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28827
content:
"agricultural and urban expansion), changes in public health access \r\nand measures, socioeconomic changes, increased global movement \r\nof people and changes in vector and rodent control programs, \r\nsupporting medium confidence in the role of climate change driving \r\nthe observed changes in vector-borne and infectious human diseases \r\nglobally. Exceptions are in areas noted above (the Arctic, sub-Arctic, \r\nand high-elevation regions), in which climate change fingerprints \r\nare strong and concurrent changes in non-climatic drivers are less \r\npronounced than in other regions (high confidence for climate change \r\nattribution) (see Table SM2.1, Sections 5.5.1.3, 7.2.2.1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  ILLNESS this Chapter) (Harvell et  al., 2002; Norwegian Polar \r\nInstitute, 2009; Tersago et al., 2009; Tabachnick, 2010; Altizer et al., \r\n2013; Garrett et al., 2013; Paz, 2015; Wu et al., 2016b; Caminade et al., \r\n2019; Dewage et al., 2019; Coates and Norton, 2020; Deksne et al., \r\n2020; Shocket et al"


id: 7f86c106d008a772aad1c4f0774d2e50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17610
content:
"Previous sections document the tendency of species to retain \r\ntheir climate envelopes by some combination of range shift and \r\nphenological change (very high confidence). However, this tracking of \r\nclimate change can be incomplete, causing species or populations to \r\nexperience hotter conditions than those to which they are adapted, \r\nand thereby incur 'climate debts' (section 2.4.2.3.1) (Devictor et al., \r\n2012). The importance of population-level debt is illustrated by a study \r\nin which the estimated debt values were correlated with population \r\ndynamic trends in a North American migratory songbird, the yellow \r\nwarbler, Setophaga petechia. Populations that were genetic outliers \r\nfor their local climate space had larger population declines (greater \r\ndebt) than those with genotypes closer to the average values for that \r\nparticular climate space"


id: 31ccacee1f10e64d22bdcb10ebda5612
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5246
content:
" Debt values were estimated from genomic \r\nanalyses independent of the population trends, and were distributed \r\nacross the species' range in a mosaic, not simply concentrated at \r\nrange margins, rendering the results robust to being confounded by \r\nbroad-scale geographical trends (Bay et al., 2018). Soroye et al. (2020) \r\nfound similar results for 66 species of bumble-bees across Europe \r\nand North America, with declines in abundances spread throughout \r\nspecies' ranges, but being greatest where populations already near \r\ntheir climate limits were being pushed beyond their climatic tolerances \r\nwith climate change {2.4.2.3.1}."


id: b822ffc9146314f69efe818cdf650448
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26499
content:
"shifts to climate change are relatively straightforward, if human LULCC \r\nis minimal. However, other biomes, such as many grassland systems, \r\nare not in equilibrium with climate (Bond et  al., 2005). In these \r\nsystems, their evolutionary history (Keeley et  al., 2011; Stromberg, \r\n2011; Charles-Dominique et  al., 2016), distribution, structure and \r\nfunction have been shaped by climate and natural disturbances, such \r\nas fire and herbivory (Staver et al., 2011; Lehmann et al., 2014; Pausas, \r\n2015; Bakker et al., 2016; Malhi et al., 2016). Disturbance variability is \r\nan inherent characteristic of grassland systems, and suitable 'control' \r\nconditions are seldom available in nature. Furthermore, due to the \r\nintegral role of disturbance, these biomes have been widely affected \r\nby long-term and widespread shifts in grazing regimes, large-scale \r\nlosses of mega-herbivores and fire suppression policies (Archibald \r\net al., 2013; Malhi et al., 2016; Hempson et al., 2017)"


id: 80b06baf1793ca5d26b8f304acc5ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17769
content:
" It is necessary \r\nto conduct climate change attribution on a case-by-case basis for \r\ngrasslands; such assessments are complex as direct climate change \r\nimpacts from either inherent variation within disturbance regimes \r\nor directional changes in background disturbances are difficult to \r\nseparate (detailed in Sections 2.4.3.2.1; 2.4.3.2.2; 2.4.3.5). Confidence \r\nin assessments is increased when the observed trends are supported by \r\na mechanistic understanding of responses identified by physiological \r\nstudies, manipulative field experiments, greenhouse studies and lab \r\nexperiments (Table SM2.1)."


id: d71837b9e80949f38227aeeba2d8715a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31355
content:
"Widespread vegetation greening, as projected in AR4, is occurring in \r\narid shrublands (Zhang et al., 2019a; Maestre et al., 2021) as a result \r\nof increases in leaf area, woody cover and herbaceous production at \r\ndesert-grassland interfaces (Gonsamo et al., 2021). Plant productivity \r\nin arid regions has increased (Fensholt et  al., 2012) because of \r\nimproved water-use efficiency associated with elevated CO2 (Norby \r\nand Zak, 2011; Donohue et al., 2013; Burrell et al., 2020; Gonsamo \r\net  al., 2021) (medium evidence, high agreement), altered rainfall \r\nseasonality and amount (Rohde et  al., 2019; Zhang et  al., 2019a ) \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement), increases in temperature (Ratajczak \r\net al., 2014; Wilcox et al., 2018) (robust evidence, high agreement) and \r\nheavy grazing (robust evidence, high agreement), with the relative \r\nimportance differing across locations (Donohue et al., 2013; Caracciolo \r\net al., 2016; Archer et al., 2017; Hoffmann et al., 2019b; Rohde et al"


id: ca9e37d23e146de520ab74687c60eb18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29441
content:
", \r\n2019). Woody-plant encroachment into arid shrublands is occurring \r\nwith high confidence in North America (Caracciolo et al., 2016; Archer \r\net al., 2017) and southern Africa (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; Ward \r\net  al., 2014; Masubelele et  al., 2015a; Hoffman et  al., 2019; Rohde \r\net al., 2019), and with low confidence in central Asia (Li et al., 2015). \r\nIn North America, sagebrush steppe changes have been attributed to \r\nincreases in temperature and earlier snowpack melt (USGCRP, 2017; \r\nMote et al., 2018; Snyder et al., 2019)."


id: 1fefca63be333502b0fa13f9a15f63e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2464
content:
"Declines in plant health and increased mortality in MTEs associated \r\nwith drought have been widely documented (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Section  2.4.4.3). Remote-sensing studies show \r\ndrought-associated mortality in post-fire vegetation regrowth in the \r\nFynbos of South Africa (Slingsby et al., 2020b), reduced canopy health \r\nin forests within MTE zones of South Africa (Hope et al., 2014) and \r\ndeclines in canopy water content in the forests of California (Asner \r\net al., 2016a). Several studies reported climate-associated responses \r\nof dominant or charismatic species. High mortality in the Clanwilliam \r\ncedar tree between 1931 and 2013 occurred at lower, hotter elevations \r\nin the Fynbos of South Africa (White et al., 2016). Drought reduced \r\ngrowth and increased mortality of the holm oak, Quercus ilex, on \r\nthe Iberian Peninsula of Spain (Natalini et  al. (2016)"


id: 7c5c1b80da0f4faeaa5434982491749b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17164
content:
" Portuguese \r\nshrublands experienced losses of many deciduous and evergreen oak \r\nspecies, and an increasing dominance of pyrophytic xeric trees (Acacio \r\net al., 2017). The 2012-2015 drought in California caused high-canopy \r\nfoliage dieback of the giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) \r\n(Stephenson et al., 2019), increased the dominance of oaks relative to \r\npines as a result of the increased water deficit, and led to large-scale \r\ntree mortality due to interactions of drought and insect pest outbreaks \r\n(McIntyre et al., 2015; Fettig et al., 2019)."


id: 584e83d5bdcea22baea6dce66bae00f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11399
content:
"Savannas consist of co-existing trees and grasses in tropical and \r\ntemperate regions (Archibald et al., 2019). The global trend of woody \r\nencroachment reported in AR5 (Settele et al., 2014) is continuing (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement, very high confidence) (see Table  SM2.1), \r\nwith increases occurring in temperate savannas in North America \r\n(10-20% per decade) and tropical savannas in South America (8% \r\nper decade), Africa (2.4% per decade) and Australia (1% per decade) \r\n(O'Connor et al., 2014; Espirito-Santo et al., 2016; Skowno et al., 2017; \r\nStevens et al., 2017; McNicol et al., 2018; Venter et al., 2018; Rosan \r\net al., 2019). Additionally, the forest expansion into mesic savannas \r\nreported in AR5 (Settele et  al., 2014) is continuing in Africa, South \r\nAmerica and Southeast Asia (Marimon et al., 2014; Keenan et al., 2015; \r\nBaccini et al., 2017; Ondei et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017; Aleman \r\net al., 2018; Rosan et al., 2019)"


id: 3cfbb1590dbb3b8c816ad01bb64faa39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6956
content:
" Extreme high rainfall anomalies have \r\nalso contributed to an increase in herbaceous and foliar production in \r\nthe Sahel (Brandt et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019a)."


id: ea84350aae75e27aa3776a5a7ea6fdfd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34405
content:
"Specific examples of climate change-driven range shifts of tropical \r\ndeciduous forests upslope into alpine grasslands have been documented \r\nin the Americas (Chacon-Moreno et al., 2021; Jimenez-Garcia et al., \r\n2021) and Asia (Sigdel et  al., 2018). However, tree line behaviours \r\nare diverse. A study in Nepal recorded that the tree line fomed by \r\nAbies spectabilis had been stable for more than a century, while the \r\nupper limit of large shrubs (Rhododendron campanulatum) had been \r\nadvancing (Mainali et  al., 2020). In both the Andes (Harsch et  al., \r\n2009) and Himalayas (Singh et al., 2021), most tree lines have been \r\nstable, leading (Rehm and Feeley, 2015) to postulate a 'grass ceiling' \r\nthat has been difficult for trees to penetrate. The tree line shifts that \r\nhave occurred are probably driven by interactions between changing \r\nland use (e.g"


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", fire suppression) and climate changes such as increased \r\nrainfall, warming and elevated CO2 (via CO2 fertilisation or increases \r\nin water-use efficiency) (medium evidence, medium agreement)\r\n(Cernusak et al., 2013; Huang et al., 2013; Van Der Sleen et al., 2015; \r\nYang et al., 2016)."


id: cf345973e058f5102ac7e8ca51f3585
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"The global extent of grasslands is declining significantly because of \r\nclimate change (medium confidence). In temperate and boreal zones, \r\nwhere about half of tree lines are shifting, they are overwhelmingly \r\nexpanding poleward and upward, with an accompanying loss of \r\nmontane and boreal grassland (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\nwhereas tropical tree lines have been generally stable (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Harsch et al., 2009; Rehm and Feeley, \r\n2015; Silva et al., 2016; Andela et al., 2017; Song et al., 2018; Aide \r\net  al., 2019; Gibson and Newman, 2019). The Eurasian steppes \r\nexperienced a 1% increase in woody cover per decade since 2000 (Liu \r\net  al., 2021) and inner Mongolian grasslands in China experienced \r\nbroad encroachment as well (Chen et  al., 2015)"


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content:
" Climatic drivers of \r\nwoody expansion in temperature-limited grasslands, particularly \r\nalpine grasslands, are most frequently attributed to warming (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement, high confidence) (D'Odorico et  al., 2012; \r\nHagedorn et al., 2014), an increase in water and nutrient availability \r\nfrom thawing permafrost (medium evidence, high agreement) (Zhou \r\net  al., 2015b; Silva et  al., 2016) and rising CO2 (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Frank et al., 2015; Aide et al., 2019). Interactions \r\nof LULCCs such as land abandonment, grazing management shifts \r\nand fire suppression with climate change are contributing factors (Liu \r\net al., 2021)"


id: 37818282c00d114cfe21e1a946337149
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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"Climate change continues to degrade forests by reducing resilience to \r\npests and diseases, increasing species invasion, facilitating pathogen \r\nspread (Malhi et al., 2014; Deb et al., 2018) and intensifying fire risk \r\nand potential dieback (Lapola et  al., 2018; Marengo et  al., 2018). \r\nDrought, temperature increases and forest fragmentation interact to \r\nincrease the prevalence of fires in tropical forests (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Warming increases water stress in trees (Corlett, \r\n2016) and, together with forest fragmentation, dramatically increases \r\nthe desiccation of forest canopies--resulting in deforestation that \r\nthen leads to even hotter and drier regional climates (Malhi et  al., \r\n2014; Lewis et al., 2015). Warming and drought increase the invasion \r\nof grasses into forest edges and increase fire risk (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Brando et al., 2014; Balch et al., 2015; Lewis et al., 2015)"


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" \r\nDroughts and fires additively increase mortality and, consequently, \r\nreduce canopy cover and above-ground biomass (Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n7) (Brando et al., 2014, 2020; Balch et al., 2015; Lewis et al., 2015)."


id: f16da9634feaa8cf97093fa1515dbb80
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"Globally, peatland ecosystems store approximately 25% (600 +- 100 \r\nGtC) of the world's soil organic carbon (Yu et al., 2010; Page et al., 2011; \r\nHugelius et  al., 2020) and 10% of the world's freshwater resources \r\n(Joosten and Clarke, 2002), despite only occupying 3% of the global \r\nland area (Xu et al., 2018a). The long-term role of northern peatlands \r\nin the carbon cycle was mentioned for the first time in IPCC AR4 (IPCC, \r\n2007), while SR1.5 briefly mentioned the combined effects of changes \r\nin climate and land use on peatlands (IPCC, 2018b). New evidence \r\nconfirms that climate change, including extreme weather events (e.g., \r\ndroughts; Section 8.3.1.6), permafrost degradation (Section 2.3.2.5), \r\nSLR (Section 2.3.3.3) and fire (Section 5.4.3.2) (Henman and Poulter, \r\n2008; Kirwan and Mudd, 2012; Turetsky et al., 2015; Page and Hooijer, \r\n2016; Swindles et al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020; Hugelius et al., 2020; \r\nJovani-Sancho et al., 2021; Veraverbeke et al"


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", 2021), superimposed on \r\nanthropogenic disturbances (e.g., draining for agriculture or mining; \r\nSection 5.2.1.1), has led to rapid losses of peatland carbon across the \r\nworld (robust evidence, high agreement) (Page et  al., 2011; Leifeld \r\net al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020; Turetsky et al., 2020; Loisel et al., 2021). \r\nOther essential peatland ecosystem services, such as water storage \r\nand biodiversity, are also being lost worldwide (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Bonn et al., 2014; Martin-Ortega et al., 2014; Tiemeyer \r\net al., 2017)."


id: c55b98b7fc0c38d02f3eb3611712db5a
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"The AR5 found increased tree mortality, wildfire and plant phenology \r\nchanges in boreal and temperate forests (Settele et  al., 2014). \r\nExpanding on these conclusions, this assessment, using analyses of \r\ncausal factors, attributes the following observed changes in boreal \r\nand temperate forests in the 20th and 21st centuries to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change: upslope and poleward biome shifts at sites in Asia, \r\nEurope and North America (Section 2.4.3.2.1); range shifts of plants \r\n(Section 2.4.2.1); earlier blooming and leafing of plants (Section 2.4.2.4); \r\npoleward shifts in tree-feeding insects (Section  2.4.2.1); increases \r\nin insect pest outbreaks (Section  2.4.4.3.3); increases in the area \r\nburned by wildfire in western North America (Section  2.4.4.2.1); \r\nincreased drought-induced tree mortality in western North America \r\n(Section  2.4.4.3.1); and thawing of the permafrost that underlies \r\nextensive areas of boreal forest (Section  2.4.3.9)(Section  2.3.2"


id: 37a334e7f2f18e351ad43cdd5cb00635
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"5 in \r\n(Gulev et  al., 2021)). Atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic sources \r\nhas also increased net primary productivity (NPP) (Section 2.4.4.5.1). \r\nIn summary, anthropogenic climate change has caused substantial \r\nchanges in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems, including biome \r\nshifts and increases in wildfire, insect pest outbreaks and tree mortality, "


id: d96507b2fe9062514ddc6ed65411f615
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"emissions (medium evidence, high agreement). Climate change is \r\ncompounding these impacts (medium evidence, medium agreement). \r\nFor example, in Indonesia, the highest emissions from drained tropical \r\npeatlands were reported in the extremely dry year of the 1997 El Nino \r\n(810-2570 TgC yr-1) (Page et al., 2002) and the 2015 fire season (380 \r\nTgC yr-1) (Field et al., 2016). These prolonged dry seasons have also \r\nled to tree die-offs and fires, which are relatively new phenomena at \r\nthese latitudes (medium evidence, high agreement) (Cole et al., 2015; \r\nMezbahuddin et al., 2015; Fanin and van der Werf, 2017; Taufik et al., \r\n2017; Cole et  al., 2019). Low soil moisture contributes to increased \r\nfire propagation (Section 12.4.2.2) (Dadap et al., 2019; Canadell et al., \r\n2021), causing long-lasting fires responsible for smoke and haze \r\npollution (robust evidence, high agreement) (Ballhorn et  al., 2009; \r\nPage et al., 2009; Gaveau et al., 2014; Huijnen et al"


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", 2016; Page and \r\nHooijer, 2016; Hu et al., 2018; Vadrevu et al., 2019; Niwa et al., 2021). \r\nIncreases in fires and smoke lead to habitat loss and negatively impact \r\nregional faunal populations (limited evidence, high agreement) (Neoh \r\net al., 2015; Erb et al., 2018b; Thornton et al., 2018)."


id: f045c36c0fa4b8ca2933b7976dca8859
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"The CO2 emissions from degrading peatlands is contributing to climate \r\nchange in a positive feedback loop (robust evidence, high agreement). \r\nAt mid-latitudes, widespread anthropogenic disturbance led to large \r\nhistorical GHG emissions and current legacy emissions of 0.15 PgC yr-1\r\nbetween 1990 and 2000 (limited evidence, high agreement) (Maljanen \r\net  al., 2010; Tiemeyer et  al., 2016; Drexler et  al., 2018; Qiu et  al., \r\n2021). About 80 million hectares of peatland have been converted to \r\nagriculture, equivalent to 72 PgC emissions in 850-2010 CE (Leifeld \r\net al., 2019; Qiu et al., 2021). In Southeast Asia (SEA), an estimated 20-\r\n25 Mha of peatlands have been converted to agriculture with carbon \r\ncurrently being lost at a rate of ~155+-30MtCyr-1 (Miettinen et al., \r\n2016; Leifeld et al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020)"


id: bd3738294c6eb32ec8095f1e1780c24
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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" Extensive deforestation \r\nand drainage have caused widespread peat subsidence and large CO2\r\nemissions at a current average of ~10 +- 2 tonnes ha-1 yr-1, excluding \r\nfires (Hoyt et al., 2020), with values estimated from point subsidence \r\nmeasurements being as high as 30-90 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1 locally \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Wosten et  al., 1997; Matysek \r\net  al., 2018; Swails et  al., 2018; Evans et  al., 2019; Conchedda and \r\nTubiello, 2020; Anshari et al., 2021). On average, at the global scale, \r\nincreases in GHG emissions from peatlands have primarily come from \r\nthe compounded effects of LUC, drought and fire, with additional \r\nemissions from some thawing-permafrost peatlands (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)."


id: 9b3f259a6ff95ef7a2631df3c024c70a
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"In large, lowland tropical peatland basins that are less impacted by \r\nanthropogenic activities (i.e., the Amazon and Congo river basins), \r\nthe direct impact of climate change is that of a decreased carbon \r\nsink (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Roucoux et  al., 2013; \r\nGallego-Sala et  al., 2018; Wang et  al., 2018a; Dargie et  al., 2019; \r\nRibeiro et al., 2021). As for the temperate and boreal regions, climatic \r\ndrying also tends to promote peat oxidation and carbon loss to the \r\natmosphere (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Section 2.3.1.3.4) \r\n(Helbig et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). In Europe, increasing mean \r\nannual temperatures in the Baltic, Scandinavia, and continental \r\nEurope (Section 12.4.5.1) have led to widespread lowering of peatland \r\nwater tables at intact sites (Swindles et  al., 2019), desiccation and \r\ndie-off of sphagnum moss (Bragazza, 2008; Lees et  al"


id: 62d13df577bad10d1bdf14ddd903e84e
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", 2019) and \r\nincreased intensity and frequency of fires, resulting in a rapid carbon \r\nloss (Davies et al., 2013; Veraverbeke et al., 2021). Nevertheless, longer \r\ngrowing seasons and warmer, wetter climates have increased carbon \r\naccumulation and promoted thick deposits regionally, as reported for \r\nsome North American sites (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Cai \r\nand Yu, 2011; Shiller et al., 2014; Ott and Chimner, 2016)."


id: fb42299e3018d19d04abe287c744f3b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"Warming at high latitudes, documented in both AR4 and AR5, is \r\nleading to earlier snow and sea ice melt and longer growing seasons \r\n(IPCC, 2021a) which are continuing to alter tundra plant communities \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement) (Post et al., 2009; Gauthier et al., \r\n2013). Woody encroachment and increases in vegetation productivity, \r\nobserved in both AR4 and AR5, are widespread and continuing. Both \r\nexperiments and monitoring indicate that climate warming is causing \r\nincreases in shrub, grass and sedge abundance, density, frequency, \r\nand height, with decreases in mosses and/or lichens (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Myers-Smith et  al., 2011; Bjorkman et  al., 2018; \r\nBjorkman et al., 2019). Shrub growth is climate-sensitive and is greater \r\nin years with warmer growing seasons (Myers-Smith et  al., 2015). \r\nPlant species that prefer warmer conditions are increasing (Elmendorf \r\net al., 2015; Bjorkman et al"


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", 2018), plant cover is increasing and bare \r\nground is decreasing in long-term monitoring plots (Bjorkman et al., \r\n2019; Myers-Smith et al., 2019). Animals such as moose, beavers and \r\nsongbirds may already be responding to these vegetation changes \r\nby expanding their ranges northward or upslope into shrub tundra \r\n(Boelman et al., 2015; Tape et al., 2016a; Tape et al., 2016b; Tape et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 170316058e6a750edb39d1070b8a377c
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"In high-latitude peatlands, the net effect of climate change on the \r\npermafrost peatland carbon sink capacity remains uncertain (Abbott \r\net  al., 2016; McGuire et  al., 2018b; Laamrani et  al., 2020; Loisel \r\net  al., 2021; Sim et  al., 2021; Valiranta et  al., 2021). Increasing air \r\ntemperatures have been linked to permafrost degradation and altered \r\nhydrological regimes (2.3.3.2; Figure  2.4a; 2.4.3.9; Box  5.1), which \r\nhave led to rapid changes in plant communities and bio-geochemical \r\ncycling (robust evidence, high agreement) (Liljedahl et  al., 2016; \r\nSwindles et al., 2016; Voigt et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2017b; Voigt et al., \r\n2020; Sim et  al., 2021). In many instances, permafrost degradation \r\ntriggers thermokarst land subsidence associated with local wetting \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Jones et  al., 2013; Borge et  al., \r\n2017; Olvmo et  al., 2020; Olefeldt et  al., 2021)"


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" Permafrost thaw in \r\npeatland-rich landscapes can also cause local drying through increased \r\nhydrological connectivity and runoff (Connon et al., 2014). In the first \r\ndecades following thaw, increases in methane, CO2 and nitrous oxide \r\nemissions have been recorded from peatland sites, depending on \r\nsurface moisture conditions (Schuur et al., 2009; O'Donnell et al., 2012; "


id: e4a627d55da3e75419e3761271bdf1ac
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"Wildfire is a natural and essential component of many forest and \r\nother terrestrial ecosystems. Excessive wildfire, however, can kill \r\npeople, cause respiratory disease, destroy houses, emit carbon dioxide \r\nand damage ecosystem integrity (see Sections  2.4.4.2 and 2.4.4.4). \r\nAnthropogenic climate change increases wildfire by exacerbating its \r\nthree principal driving factors: heat, fuel and ignition (Moritz et  al., \r\n2012; Jolly et  al., 2015). Non-climatic factors also contribute to \r\nwildfires--in tropical areas, fires are set intentionally to clear forest \r\nfor agricultural fields and livestock pastures (Bowman et  al., 2020). \r\nUrban areas and roads create ignition hazards. Governments in many \r\ntemperate-zone countries implement policies to suppress fires, even \r\nnatural ones, producing unnatural accumulations of fuel in the form \r\nof coarse woody debris and high densities of small trees (Ruffault and \r\nMouillot, 2015; Hessburg et al., 2016; Andela et al., 2017; Balch et al"


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", \r\n2017; Lasslop and Kloster, 2017; Aragao et al., 2018; Kelley et al., 2019). \r\nGlobally, 4.2  million km2\r\n of land per year burned on average from \r\n2002 to 2016 (Giglio et al., 2018), with the highest fire frequencies \r\nin the Amazon rainforest, deciduous forests and savannas in Africa \r\nand deciduous forests in northern Australia (Earl and Simmonds, 2018; \r\nAndela et al., 2019)."


id: b3eb1c2d20bb032ec0678d53b034c354
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"Since the AR5 and the IPCC Special Report on Land, published research \r\nhas detected increases in the area burned by wildfire, analysed relative \r\ncontributions of climate and non-climate factors and attributed burned \r\narea increases above natural (recent historical) levels to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change in one part of the world, western North America \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; \r\nPartain et  al., 2016; Kirchmeier-Young et  al., 2019; Mansuy et  al., \r\n2019; Bowman et  al., 2020). Across the western USA, increases in \r\nvegetation aridity due to higher temperatures from anthropogenic \r\nclimate change doubled burned area from 1984 to 2015 over what \r\nwould have burned due to non-climate factors including unnatural fuel \r\naccumulation from fire suppression, with the burned area attributed \r\nto climate change accounting for 49% (32-76%, 95% confidence \r\ninterval) of cumulative burned area (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016)"


id: 4c9d23b6ea66e304ed7f284870bfedc
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" \r\nAnthropogenic climate change doubled the severity of a southwest \r\nNorth American drought from 2000 to 2020 that has reduced soil \r\nmoisture to its lowest levels since the 1500s (Williams et al., 2020), \r\ndriving half of the increase in burned area (Abatzoglou and Williams, \r\n2016; Holden et al., 2018; Williams et al., 2019). In British Columbia, \r\nCanada, the increased maximum temperatures due to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change increased burned area in 2017 to its highest extent "


id: 41b4d7237b688fe316df7c98b341502e
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"Where the global average burned area has decreased in the past two \r\ndecades, higher correlations of rates of change in burning to human \r\npopulation density, cropland area and livestock density than to \r\nprecipitation indicate that agricultural expansion and intensification \r\nwere the main causes (Andela et  al., 2017). The global decrease of \r\nfire frequency from 2000 to 2010 is correlated with increasing human \r\npopulation density (Knorr et  al., 2014). The fire-reducing effect of \r\nreduced vegetation cover following expansion of agriculture and \r\nlivestock herding can counteract the fire-increasing effect of the \r\nincreased heat and drying associated with climate change (Lasslop and \r\nKloster, 2017; Arora and Melton, 2018; Forkel et al., 2019). The reduced \r\nburning needed after the initial clearing for agricultural expansion \r\ndrives much of the decline in fires in the Tropics (Andela et al., 2017; \r\nEarl and Simmonds, 2018; Forkel et al., 2019)"


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" The human influence on \r\nfire ignition can be seen through the decrease documented on holy \r\ndays (Sundays and Fridays) and traditional religious days of rest (Earl \r\net al., 2015). Overall, human land use exerts an influence on wildfire \r\ntrends for global terrestrial area as a whole that can be stronger than \r\nclimate change (medium confidence)."


id: 7a78f1166841d068de070d41e59f9c1a
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content:
"Regarding global terrestrial area as a whole, wildfire trends vary \r\ndepending on the time period of analysis. From 1900 to 2000, global \r\naverage fire frequency, based on field data, increased 0.4% but the \r\nchange was not statistically significant (Gonzalez et  al., 2010). Fire \r\nfrequency increased on one-third of global land, mainly from burning \r\nfor agricultural clearing in Africa, Asia and South America, slightly less \r\nthan the area of fire frequency decrease, mainly from fire suppression \r\nacross Australia, North America and Russia (Gonzalez et  al., 2010). \r\nAnalyses of the Global Fire Emissions Database document shows \r\nthat, from 1996 to 2015, global burned area decreased at a rate of \r\n-0.7% yr-1 (Forkel et al., 2019) but the change was not statistically \r\nsignificant (Giglio et al., 2013). From 1998 to 2015, global burned area \r\ndecreased at a rate of -1.4 +- 0.5% yr-1 (Andela et al., 2017)"


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" The area \r\nof fire increases was one-third of the area of decreases, due to reduced \r\nvegetation cover from agricultural expansion and intensification \r\n(Andela et al., 2017) and from increased precipitation (Forkel et al., "


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content:
"Silva et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2021; dos Reis et al., 2021; Libonati \r\net al., 2021). Roads facilitate deforestation, fragmenting the rainforest \r\nand increasing the dryness and flammability of vegetation (Alencar \r\net  al., 2015). Extreme droughts that occur during warm phases of \r\nthe ENSO and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation combine with \r\nthe degradation of vegetation to cause extreme fire events (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Fonseca et al., 2017; Aragao et al., 2018; \r\nda Silva et al., 2018; Burton et al., 2020; dos Reis et al., 2021; Libonati \r\net  al., 2021). In the State of Roraima, Brazil, distance to roads and \r\ninfrastructure that enable deforestation and ENSO were the factors \r\nmost explaining fire occurrence in the extreme 2015-2016 fire season \r\n(Fonseca et al., 2017). From 1973 to 2014, burned area increased in \r\nthe Amazon, coinciding with increased deforestation (van Marle et al., \r\n2017)"


id: caebdfeb76748e6d99404a9864e69615
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29486
content:
" In the State of Acre, Brazil, burned area increased 36-fold from \r\n1984 to 2016, with 43% burned in agricultural and livestock settlement \r\nareas (da Silva et al., 2018). In the extreme fire year 2019, 85% of the \r\narea burned in the Amazon occurred in areas deforested in 2018 (Cardil \r\net  al., 2020). Even though relatively higher moisture in 2019 led to \r\nburning below the 2002-2019 average across most of South America, \r\nburning in areas of recent deforestation in the Amazon were above the \r\n2002-2019 average, indicating that deforestation, not meteorological \r\nconditions, triggered the 2019 fires (Kelley et al., 2021; Libonati et al., \r\n2021). Furthermore, from 1981 to 2018, deforestation in the Amazon \r\nreduced moisture inputs to the lower atmosphere, increasing drought \r\nand fire in a self-reinforcing feedback (Xu et al., 2020). In the Amazon, \r\ndeforestation exerts an influence on wildfire that can be stronger than \r\nclimate change (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 8cec2c4486de757aad71d7d337f8c65f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19691
content:
"In the Arctic tundra and boreal forest, where wildfire has naturally \r\nbeen infrequent, burned area showed statistically significant increases \r\nof ~50% yr-1 across Siberia, Russia, from 1996 to 2015 (Ponomarev \r\net al., 2016) and 2% yr-1 across Canada from 1959 to 2015 (Hanes \r\net al., 2019). Wildfire burned ~6% of the area of four extensive Arctic \r\npermafrost regions in Alaska, USA, eastern Canada and Siberia from \r\n1999 to 2014 (Nitze et al., 2018). In boreal forest in the Northwest \r\nTerritories, Canada and Alaska, USA, the area burned by wildfire \r\nincreased at a statistically significant rate of 6.8% yr-1 in the period \r\n1975-2015, (Veraverbeke et al., 2017), with smouldering below-ground \r\nfires that lasted through the winter covering ~1% of burned area \r\nin the period 2002-2016 (Scholten et  al., 2021). While burned area \r\nwas correlated with temperature and reduced precipitation in Siberia \r\n(Ponomarev et  al., 2016; Masrur et  al"


id: f4932c1ee691c75e5172724947bf45c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35985
content:
", 2018) and correlated with \r\nlightning, temperature and precipitation in the Northwest Territories \r\nand Alaska (Veraverbeke et  al., 2017), no attribution analyses have \r\nexamined relative influences of climate and non-climate factors."


id: b461711e408a00743231ae1ee319372b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25897
content:
"In Australia, burned area increased significantly between the periods \r\n1950-2002 and 2003-2020 in the southeast state of Victoria, with the \r\narea burned in the 2019-2020 bushfires being the highest on record \r\n(Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020). In addition to the deaths of dozens of \r\npeople and the destruction of thousands of houses, the 2019-2020 \r\nbushfires burned almost half of the area protected for conservation \r\nin Victoria, two-thirds of the forests allocated for timber harvesting \r\n(Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020), wildlife and extensive areas of habitat \r\nfor threatened plant and animal species (Geary et al., 2021). Generally, \r\npast timber harvesting did not lead to more severe fire canopy damage \r\n(Bowman et al., 2021b). Across southeastern Australia, the fraction of \r\nvegetated area that burned increased significantly in eight of the 32 \r\nbioregions from 1975 to 2009, but decreased significantly in three \r\nbioregions (Bradstock et al., 2014)"


id: 57b2cfdf773bebaf43b5373f784ec2ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11296
content:
" Increases in four bioregions were \r\ncorrelated to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. \r\nDecreases in burned area occurred despite increased temperature \r\nand decreased precipitation. Analyses of climate across Australia \r\nfrom 1950 to 2017 (Dowdy, 2018; Harris and Lucas, 2019) and during \r\nperiods with extensive fires in 2017 in eastern Australia (Hope et al., \r\n2019), in 2018 in northeastern Australia (Lewis et al., 2020), and in \r\nperiod 2019-2020 in southeastern Australia (Abram et  al., 2021; \r\nvan Oldenborgh et al., 2021) indicate that temperature and drought \r\nextremes due to the ENSO, Southern Annular Mode and other natural \r\ninter-decadal cycles drive inter-annual variability of fire weather. While \r\nthe effects of inter-decadal climate cycles on fire are superimposed on \r\nlong-term climate change, the relative importance of anthropogenic \r\nclimate change in explaining changes in burned area in Australia \r\nremains unquantified (medium evidence, high agreement)"


id: c40042087575bad9c200c74febf700f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28407
content:
"The IPCC AR6 WGI assessed fire weather (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021), \r\nwhile this chapter assesses the impacts of changes in fire weather: \r\nburned area and fire frequency. The global increases in temperature \r\nfrom anthropogenic climate change have increased aridity and \r\ndrought, lengthening the fire weather season (the annual period \r\nwith a heat and aridity index greater than half of its annual range) \r\non one-quarter of global vegetated area and increasing the average \r\nfire season length by one-fifth from 1979 to 2013 (Jolly et al., 2015). \r\nClimate change has contributed to increases in the fire weather season \r\nor the probability of fire weather conditions in the Amazon (Jolly et al., \r\n2015), Australia (Dowdy, 2018; Abram et  al., 2021; van Oldenborgh \r\net  al., 2021), Canada (Hanes et  al., 2019), central Asia (Jolly et  al., \r\n2015), East Africa (Jolly et al., 2015) and North America (Jain et al., \r\n2017; Williams et  al., 2019; Goss et  al., 2020)"


id: 27224d6e9a55774afa0645b6904383d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3551
content:
" In forest areas, the \r\nburned area correlates with fuel aridity, a function of temperature; in \r\nnon-forest areas, the burned area correlates with high precipitation in \r\nthe previous year, which can produce high grass fuel loads (Abatzoglou \r\net al., 2018). Fire use in agriculture and raising livestock or other factors \r\nhave generated a second fire season on approximately one-quarter of \r\nglobal land where fire is present, despite sub-optimal fire weather in \r\nthe second fire season (Benali et al., 2017). In summary, anthropogenic \r\nclimate change, through a 0.9degC surface temperature increase since \r\nthe pre-industrial period, has lengthened or increased the frequency of \r\nperiods with heat and aridity that favour wildfire on up to one-quarter \r\nof vegetated area since 1979 (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 258752e25e0368ab88064718b3880fe5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3331
content:
"Up through the AR5 (Settele et al., 2014), detection and attribution \r\nanalyses had found that anthropogenic climate change, with global \r\ntemperature increases of 0.3degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period \r\nand the increases in aridity exceeding the effects of local non-climate \r\nchange factors, caused three cases of drought-induced tree mortality \r\nof up to 20% in the period 1945-2007 in western North America (van \r\nMantgem et al., 2009), the African Sahel (Gonzalez et al., 2012) and \r\nNorth Africa (le Polain de Waroux and Lambin, 2012). Increased wildfire \r\nand pest infestations, driven by climate change, also contributed to \r\nNorth American tree mortality (van Mantgem et al., 2009). In addition, \r\na meta-analysis of published cases found that drought consistent with, \r\nbut not formally attributed to, climate change had caused tree mortality \r\nat 88 sites in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems (Allen et al"


id: 663976ce8e16aa2da11ccf44ca148cf0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13675
content:
"Since the AR5 (Settele et al., 2014), global meta-analyses found at least \r\n15 (Allen et al., 2015) and 25 (Hartmann et al., 2018) additional sites, \r\nrespectively, of drought-induced tree mortality around the world. These \r\nand other global analyses found more rapid mortality than previously \r\n(Allen et  al., 2015), rising background mortality (Allen et  al., 2015), \r\nmortality increasing with drought severity (Greenwood et  al., 2017), \r\nmortality of tropical trees increasing with temperature (Locosselli et al., \r\n2020), mortality increasing with tree size for many species (Bennett \r\net al., 2015), mortality predominantly at the dry edge of species ranges \r\n(Anderegg et al., 2019) and three-quarters of drought-induced mortality \r\ncases leading to a change in the dominant species (Batllori et al., 2020). \r\nMultiple non-climate factors contribute to tree mortality, including \r\ntimber cutting, livestock grazing and air pollution (Martinez-Vilalta \r\nand Lloret, 2016)"


id: ac6d95d17c39f107ec111f433094ae57
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24665
content:
" Globally, tropical dry forests lost, from all causes, \r\n95,000 km2\r\n, 8% of their total area, from 1982 to 2016, the most \r\nextensive area of mortality of any biome (Song et al., 2018)."


id: 7a6267262c09ec5c0b90a861b8661083
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16824
content:
"Globally, fire has contributed to biome shifts (Section 2.4.3.2) and tree \r\nmortality (Sections 2.4.4.2, 2.4.4.3) attributed to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange. Research since the AR5 has also found vegetation changes \r\nfrom wildfire due to climate change. Through increased temperature \r\nand aridity, anthropogenic climate change has driven post-fire changes \r\nin plant regeneration and species composition in South Africa (Slingsby \r\net al., 2017), and tree regeneration in the western USA (Davis et al., \r\n2019b). In the fynbos vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region, South \r\nAfrica, post-fire heat and drought and the legacy effects of exotic plant \r\nspecies reduced the regeneration of native plant species, decreasing \r\nspecies richness by 12% from 1966 to 2010 and shifting the average \r\ntemperature tolerance of species communities upward by 0.5degC \r\n(Slingsby et  al., 2017)"


id: 30b4a8044ca3bc862f2f84033b9f7ace
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5084
content:
"Evidence shows that human-caused climate change has driven increases in the area burned by wildfire in the forests \r\nof western North America. Across this region, the higher temperatures of human-caused climate change doubled \r\nburned area from 1984 to 2015, compared with what would have burned without climate change (Figure FAQ2.3.1b). \r\nThe additional area burned, 4.9 million hectares, is greater than the land area of Switzerland. Human-caused climate \r\nchange drove a drought from 2000 to 2020 that has been the most severe since the 1500s, severely increasing the \r\naridity of vegetation. In British Columbia, Canada, the higher maximum temperatures of human-caused climate \r\nchange increased burned area in 2017 to its widest extent in the 1950-2017 record, seven to eleven times the area \r\nthat would have burned without climate change"


id: c3a54e2f63d74f62e9f290a6045977
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28353
content:
" Moreover, in national parks and other protected areas of Canada \r\nand the USA, most of the area burned from 1984 to 2014 can be attributed to climate factors (temperature, rainfall \r\nand aridity) and these outweigh local human factors (population density, roads and urban area)."


id: 88e6d6e1b07f4808c0e4089dca661eb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19076
content:
"The most extensive research into tree mortality since the AR5 has been \r\nin the western USA, where anthropogenic climate change accounted \r\nfor half the magnitude of a drought in the period 2000-2020 that has \r\nbeen the most severe since the 1500s, (Williams et al., 2020) and for \r\none-tenth to one-quarter of the magnitude of the 2012-2014 period of \r\nthe severe drought in California that lasted from 2012 to 2016 (Williams \r\net al., 2015a). Across the western USA, anthropogenic climate change \r\ndoubled tree mortality between 1955 and 2007 (van Mantgem et al., \r\n2009). Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) mortality increased 700% \r\nfrom 2000 to 2013 (Anderegg et al., 2015) and pinon pine (P. edulis) \r\nexperienced >50% mortality from 2002 to 2014 (Redmond et  al., \r\n2018). In montane conifer forest in California, anthropogenic climate \r\nchange has increased tree mortality by one-quarter (Goulden and Bales, \r\n2019)"


id: 93fb3d1008b0551752cb33ff59d23c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20786
content:
" One-quarter of the trees died in some areas, with mortality \r\nrates of ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa) and sugar pine (P. lambertiana) \r\nincreasing to up to 700% of pre-drought rates (Stephenson et  al., \r\n2019; Stovall et  al., 2019). Substantial field evidence shows that \r\nanthropogenic climate change has caused extensive tree mortality in \r\nNorth America (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: ebf1675c2e3f0241203cf4b76afed240
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34619
content:
"In the Brazilian Amazon, deforestation to clear agricultural land \r\ncomprises the principal cause of tree mortality, reducing forest cover \r\nby an average of 13,900 km2\r\n yr-1 from 1988 to 2020 (Assis et  al., \r\n2019). In addition, in a set of 310 Amazon field plots, an annual \r\naverage temperature increase of 1.2degC from 1950 to 2018 (Marengo \r\net  al., 2018) contributed to tree mortality of ~40% from 1983 to \r\n2011 (Brienen et al., 2015). In another set of plots, mortality among \r\nnewly recruited trees of mesic genera increased and drought-tolerant \r\ngenera became more abundant from 1985 to 2015 (Esquivel-Muelbert \r\net al., 2019). In other plots, tree mortality did not show a statistically \r\nsignificant change from 1965 to 2016, but rose abruptly in severe \r\ndrought years, mainly during warm phases of the ENSO (Aleixo et al., \r\n2019). Nearly half the area of the Amazon has experienced extremely \r\ndry conditions during ENSO warm phases; this can cause extensive \r\nwildfire (Section 2"


id: d9de07722c3cbdfe77400721974b0d77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31794
content:
"4.4.2.3). Wildfires can increase tree mortality rates \r\nby >600% above rates in non-burned areas, with the higher mortality \r\npersisting for up to a decade after a fire (Silva et al., 2018; Berenguer \r\net al., 2021). Climate change has contributed to tree mortality in the \r\nAmazon rainforest (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 75bfb837413dfed02afda55a7f457d1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16120
content:
"would previously have died and reproduce more often (Raffa et al., \r\n2008; Bentz et al., 2010; Jewett et al., 2011; Macfarlane et al., 2013; \r\nRaffa et al., 2013; Hart et al., 2017; Stephenson et al., 2019; Teshome \r\net  al., 2020; Koontz et  al., 2021). Under warmer conditions, some \r\ninsects that were previously innocuous have become important agents \r\nof tree mortality (Stephenson et al., 2019; Trugman et al., 2021). Field \r\nobservations show mixed effects of bark beetle-induced tree mortality \r\non subsequent fire-caused tree mortality (Andrus et al., 2016; Meigs \r\net  al., 2016; Candau et  al., 2018; Lucash et  al., 2018; Talucci and \r\nKrawchuk, 2019; Wayman and Safford, 2021). From 1997 to 2018, ~5% \r\nof the forest area in the western USA died from bark beetle infestations \r\n(Hicke et al., 2020). Under most circumstances, trees that have been \r\nweakened by drought are more vulnerable to being killed by bark \r\nbeetles (Anderegg et al., 2015; Kolb et al"


id: 3ea544a94d54473656e1504088896d75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7240
content:
", 2016; Lloret and Kitzberger, \r\n2018; Redmond et al., 2018; Stephens et al., 2018; Fettig et al., 2019; \r\nRestaino et al., 2019; Stephenson et al., 2019; Koontz et al., 2021). In \r\nsummary, climate change has contributed to bark beetle infestations \r\nthat have caused much of the tree mortality in North America (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (see also Section 2.4.2.1)."


id: 2a33f5963cf3708fb454c9d96102cf96
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4064
content:
"Across Europe, rates of tree mortality in field inventories from 2000 to \r\n2012 were highest in Spain, Bulgaria, Sweden and Finland, positively \r\ncorrelated to maximum winter temperature and inversely correlated to \r\nspring precipitation (Neumann et al., 2017). Tree mortality in Austria, the \r\nCzech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovakia and Switzerland doubled \r\nfrom 1984 to 2016, correlated with intensified logging and increased \r\ntemperatures (Senf et al., 2018). Drought-related tree mortality rates \r\nfrom 1987 to 2016 were highest in the Ukraine, Moldova, southern \r\nFrance and Spain (Senf et  al., 2020). Climate contributed to tree \r\nmortality across Europe from 1958 to 2001 (Seidl et  al., 2011). In \r\naddition, insect infestations related to higher temperatures (Okland \r\net  al., 2019) have caused the extensive mortality of Norway spruce \r\n(Picea abies) across nine European countries (Marini et  al., 2017; \r\nMezei et al., 2017)"


id: 5011667c56992f19510993f84d09d04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10038
content:
" Across the Mediterranean Basin, a combination of \r\ndrought, wildfire, pest infestations and livestock grazing (Penuelas and \r\nSardans, 2021) has driven tree mortality. In summary, climate change \r\nhas contributed to tree mortality in Europe (high confidence) (see also \r\nSection 2.4.2.1)."


id: 67ccaeda6674a9fc802caf87c2daf42a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13917
content:
"A global meta-analysis of 59  studies encompassing 631  cases of \r\nanimal abundance changes in areas of tree mortality over the past \r\n7-59 years, primarly in North America and Australia, with a few sites \r\nin other regions (e.g. Europe). Overall, in areas with documented high \r\ntree mortality, bird abundances increased (n=186 bird species), there \r\nwas no significant trend for mammals (n=33 species), a slight trend \r\ntowards declines in invertebrates (n=28 species), and insufficient \r\ninformation to categorize the responses of reptiles (n=20 species). \r\nHowever, within groups, significant differences appeared. Mammals \r\nthat use trees as refugia showed declines with tree mortality (high \r\nconfidence), but flying mammals (e.g. bats) increased (medium \r\nconfidence). Ground-nesting, ground-foraging, tree-hole nesting \r\nand bark-foraging birds increased most, but nectar-feeding and \r\nfoliage-gleaning birds declined (high confidence)"


id: 9e2b39ffee16f37bc639a6269e1800a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22409
content:
" Within invertebrates, \r\ndeclines were strongest in ground-foraging predators and detritivores \r\n(medium confidence) (Fleming et al., 2021)."


id: 24e2358e4e2eaf3bf2b2c1b806fc5d91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3248
content:
"Ecosystems with high soil carbon densities include the peat bogs in \r\nIreland with up to 3000 tonnes ha-1 (Tomlinson, 2005), the Cuvette \r\nCentrale swamp forest peatlands in Congo with an average of ~2200 \r\ntonnes ha-1 (Dargie et al., 2017), the Arctic tundra with an average of \r\n~900 tonnes ha-1 (Tarnocai et al., 2009) and the mangrove peatlands \r\nin Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an average of 850 +- 320 tonnes ha-1\r\n(Murdiyarso et al., 2015). Arctic permafrost contains 1400 +- 200 GtC \r\nto a depth of 3 m, the largest soil carbon stock in the world (Hugelius \r\net  al., 2014). Globally, peatlands contain 470-620 GtC (Page et  al., \r\n2011; Hodgkins et al., 2018), of which boreal and temperate peatlands \r\ncontain 415 +- 150 GtC (Hugelius et al., 2020) and tropical peatlands \r\ncontain 80-350 GtC (Page et al., 2011; Dargie et al., 2017; Gumbricht \r\net al., 2017; Ribeiro et al., 2021)"


id: 95e5865a61b992d42fdb037eda5f1539
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21087
content:
" Other analyses increase the upper \r\nestimates for boreal and temperate peatlands to 800-1200 GtC \r\n(Nichols and Peteet, 2019; Mishra et al., 2021b)."


id: 81aa6806a278d7c05239836a6015a6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17930
content:
"Most global deforestation is occurring in tropical forests (Pan et al., \r\n2011; Liu et al., 2015; Houghton and Nassikas, 2017; Erb et al., 2018a; \r\nLi et al., 2018; Harris et al., 2021), primarily as a result of clearing for \r\nagricultural land (Hong et al., 2021), causing primary tropical forest \r\nto comprise a net source of carbon from 2001 to 2019: emissions to \r\nthe atmosphere 0.6 GtC yr-1, removals from the atmosphere -0.5 GtC \r\nyr-1 and net 0.1 GtC yr-1 (Harris et al., 2021). While wildfires emitted \r\nan average of 0.4 +- 0.2 GtC yr-1 from 1997 to 2016 (van der Werf \r\net al., 2017), individual fire seasons can emit the same magnitude, such \r\nas the 0.4 GtC from the Amazon fires of 2007 (Aragao et al., 2018), \r\nthe 0.5 GtC from the Amazon fires of 2015-2016 (Berenguer et al., \r\n2021) and the 0.2 Gt from the Australia fires of 2019-2020 (Shiraishi \r\nand Hirata, 2021)"


id: fe5e04b9098d5a26cbbe67c5375e7ac5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37556
content:
" Wildfires thus account for up to one-third of annual \r\naverage ecosystem carbon emissions, while major fire seasons can \r\nemit up to two-thirds of global ecosystem carbon (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement)."


id: 62f49a396b232dc0ee3a03b64d9fade7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 13144
content:
"Primary boreal and temperate forests also comprised net sources in \r\nthe period 2001-2019; however, when including all tree age classes, \r\nboreal, temperate and tropical forests were net sinks (boreal -1.6 +- \r\n1.1 Gt yr-1, temperate -3.6 +- 48 Gt yr-1), as growth exceeded permanent \r\nforest cover losses (Harris et  al., 2021), with boreal and temperate \r\nforests being much stronger sinks (Pan et al., 2011; Liu et al., 2015; \r\nHoughton and Nassikas, 2017). Estimates of carbon removals from \r\nremote sensing may provide more accurate estimates of boreal forest \r\ncarbon balances than ESMs which overestimate regrowth after timber \r\nharvesting and other disturbance (Wang et  al., 2021a). Mortality \r\nof the boreal forest in British Columbia from mountain pine beetle \r\ninfestations converted 374,000 km2\r\n from a net carbon sink to a net \r\ncarbon source (Kurz et al., 2008)"


id: cbf89200d37242c55099254a02717e80
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" Modelling suggests that a potential \r\nincrease in water-use efficiency and regrowth could offset the losses in \r\npart of the forest mortality area (Giles-Hansen et al., 2021)."


id: 7f9a795150ad2c9edfc856961f5a4c51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 17623
content:
"High biodiversity and ecosystem carbon generally occur together, with \r\nrainforests in the Amazon, Congo and Indonesia containing the largest \r\nabove-ground vegetation carbon stocks (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini \r\net al., 2012; Avitabile et al., 2016) and the highest vascular plant species \r\nrichness (Kreft and Jetz, 2007) in the world. Above-ground ecosystem \r\ncarbon and animal species richness show high correlation but also \r\nhigh spatial variability (Strassburg et al., 2010). Above-ground carbon \r\nis correlated to genus richness globally (Cavanaugh et al., 2014), but to \r\nspecies richness only in local areas (Poorter et al., 2015; Sullivan et al., \r\n2017). Species richness generally increases vegetation productivity \r\nin the humid tropics while tree abundance increases productivity in \r\ndrier conditions (Madrigal-Gonzalez et al., 2020). Across the Amazon, \r\n~1% of tree species contain 50% of the above-ground carbon, due to \r\nabundance and maximum height (Fauset et al., 2015)"


id: bf8ea4b3225b6f674d04dabeb701bba7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" Above-ground \r\ncarbon in tropical forests shows positive correlations to vertebrate \r\nspecies richness (P values not reported) (Deere et al., 2018; Di Marco \r\net  al., 2018). In logged and burned tropical forest in Brazil, species "


id: fddacccf35f6a103c52c0d683bb4b1c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"over two-thirds of deforestation from 1990 to 2005 (De Sy et  al., \r\n2015; De Sy et al., 2019). Four sites in the Amazon also showed net \r\ncarbon emissions in the period 2010-2018, from deforestation and \r\nfire (Gatti et  al., 2021). In the Amazon, deforestation emitted 0.17 \r\n+- 0.05 GtC yr-1 from 2001 to 2015 (Silva Junior et  al., 2020) while \r\nfires emitted 0.12 +- 0.14 GtC yr-1 from 2003 to 2015 (Aragao et al., \r\n2018). An analysis of the Amazon carbon loss from deforestation and \r\ndegradation estimated a loss of 0.5 Gt yr-1 in the period 2010 -2019, \r\nwith degradation accounting for three-quarters (Qin et  al., 2021). \r\nIntact old-growth Amazon rainforest has been a net carbon sink from \r\n2000 to 2010 (-0.45 Gt yr-1, min. 0.31, max. 0.57) (Hubau et al., 2020) \r\nbut may have become a net carbon source in 2010-2019 (0.67 Gt, for \r\nthe entire period, uncertainty not reported) (Qin et al., 2021)"


id: 692d0525bc021144703e83c10b7c6919
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 14141
content:
" These \r\nfactors combined--recent impacts of climate change on undisturbed \r\nforest, coupled with deforestation and agricultural expansion, along \r\nwith associated intentional burning--have caused Amazon rainforest \r\nto become an overall net carbon emitter (medium confidence)."


id: f437fe2e874754bb992e3554322e461f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 35930
content:
"Global terrestrial GPP increased 2% from 1951 to 2010 and continued \r\nincreasing at least until 2016, with increased atmospheric CO2\r\nshowing a greater influence than natural factors (Li et  al., 2017; \r\nFernandez-Martinez et  al., 2019; Liu et  al., 2019a; Cai and Prentice, \r\n2020; Melnikova and Sasai, 2020). Global forest area increased 7% \r\nfrom 1982 to 2016, mainly from forest plantations and regrowth in \r\nboreal and temperate forests in Asia and Europe (Song et al., 2018); \r\nregrowth in secondary forests >20  years old, mainly in boreal, \r\ntemperate and subtropical regions, generated a net removal of \r\n7.7 Gt yr-1 CO2 from the atmosphere from 2001 to 2019 (Harris et al., \r\n2021). Vegetation growth that exceeds the modelled CO2 fertilisation, \r\ngaps in field data and incomplete knowledge of plant mortality and \r\nsoil carbon responses introduce uncertainties into quantifying the \r\nmagnitude of CO2 fertilisation (Walker et al., 2021)"


id: d97c69b1bd5abc54b37ef6df549049e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 31732
content:
" A combination of \r\nCO2 fertilisation of global vegetation and secondary forest regrowth \r\nhas increased global vegetation productivity (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement)."


id: 8289e8eff4fa5b650473023518da1b46
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 18064
content:
"The relative increase in GPP per unit of increased atmospheric CO2\r\ndeclined from 1982 to 2015, indicating a weakening of any CO2\r\nfertilisation effect (Wang et  al., 2020c). Increased growth from CO2\r\nfertilisation has begun to shorten the lifespan of trees due to a trade-off \r\nbetween growth rate and longevity, based on analyses of tree rings of \r\n110 species around the world (Brienen et al., 2020). Furthermore, water \r\navailability controls the magnitude of NPP (Beer et  al., 2010; Jung \r\net al., 2017; Yu et al., 2017), including water from precipitation (Beer \r\net al., 2010), soil moisture (Stocker et al., 2019), groundwater storage \r\n(Humphrey et al., 2018; Madani et al., 2020a) and atmospheric vapour \r\n(Novick et al., 2016; Madani et al., 2020b). Drought stress reduced NPP \r\nacross tropical forests from 2000 to 2015 (Zhang et al., 2019b) and \r\nGPP in the tropics from 1982 to 2016 (Madani et al., 2020b)"


id: 2e0ea786ea3246225f3d87d8cc3894f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 4681
content:
" Drought \r\nstress has also reduced GPP in some semiarid and arid lands (Huang \r\net al., 2016; Liu et al., 2019a). In addition, nitrogen and phosphorus \r\nconstrain CO2 fertilisation (Terrer et al., 2019), although phosphorus \r\nlimitation of tropical tree growth is species-specific (Alvarez-Clare \r\net al., 2013; Thompson et al., 2019). NPP has decreased during some \r\ntime periods and in some regions where drought stress has exerted a \r\ngreater influence than increased atmospheric CO2 (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)."


id: 116770bf483b69b2eb914a4fcd423b6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 220
content:
"New studies since AR5, with more sophisticated analyses designed \r\nto capture complex responses, indicate that past estimates of the \r\nproportion of species impacted by recent climate change were \r\nunderestimates due to unspoken assumptions that local or regional \r\nwarming should lead solely to poleward/upward range shifts and \r\nadvancements of spring timing (high confidence) (Duffy et al., 2019). \r\nMore complex analyses have documented cases of winter warming \r\ndriving delayed spring timing of northern temperate species due to \r\nchilling requirements, and increased precipitation driving species' \r\nrange shifts downslope in elevation, and eastward and westward in \r\narid regions (high confidence). Further new studies have shown that \r\nphenological changes have, in some cases, successfully compensated \r\nfor local climate change and reduced the extent of range shifts (medium \r\nconfidence)"


id: eaceb5183e3b021308c6f56d21d83690
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 34447
content:
" The limited number of studies of this type make it difficult \r\nto estimate the generality of these effects globally (Section  2.4.2.5, \r\nTable 2.2)."


id: 54b2d31829b89a0ae7697bc3d47ce123
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 10783
content:
"Responses in freshwater species are consistent with responses in \r\nterrestrial species, including poleward and upward range shifts, earlier \r\ntiming of spring plankton development, earlier spawning by fish and the \r\nextension of the growing season (high confidence). Observed changes \r\nin freshwater species are strongly related to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange-driven changes in the physical environment (e.g., increased \r\nwater temperature, reduced ice cover, reduced mixing in lakes, loss \r\nof oxygen and reduced river connectivity) (high confidence). While \r\nevidence is robust for an increase in primary production in nutrient \r\nrich lakes along with warming trends (high confidence), increasing or \r\ndeclining algal formations are lake-specific and are modulated through \r\nvariability in weather conditions, lake morphology, changes in salinity, \r\nstoichiometry, land use and restoration measures and food web \r\ninteractions"


id: df216b3f6fe8cdaa2160e14aa1a7c26d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 32604
content:
" In boreal coniferous forest, there has been an increase \r\nin terrestrial-derived DOM transported into rivers and lakes as a \r\nconsequence of climate change (which has induced increases in runoff \r\nand greening of the Northern Hemisphere) as well as from changes in \r\nforestry practices. This has caused waters to become brown, resulting in \r\nan acceleration of upper-water warming and an overall cooling of deep \r\nwater (high confidence). Browning may accelerate primary production \r\nthrough the input of nutrients associated with DOM in nutrient-poor \r\nlakes and increases the growth of cyanobacteria, which cope better \r\nwith low light intensity (medium confidence) (Sections 2.4.2.1, 2.4.2.2, \r\n2.4.2.3, 2.4.2.4)."


id: fbdfd54019aa1bf79674bb9461e37dbc
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vector_id: 37123
content:
"Some studies have combined two or three approaches for the \r\nassessment of climate change risk to biodiversity, in order to capture \r\nthe advantages of each and avoid their limitations. Warren et al. (2013) \r\nused combinations of SDMs and trait-based approaches to estimate the \r\nproportions of species losing their climatically suitable ranges under \r\nthe various future scenarios of climate and dispersal rate. Similarly, \r\nspatial projections of exposure to climate change were combined with \r\ntraits to assess the vulnerability of sub-Saharan amphibians (Garcia \r\net al., 2014). Laurance et al. (2012) combined 31 functional groups of \r\nspecies and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, in order to \r\nassess both the ecological integrity and threats to protected tropical \r\nareas on a global scale. Keith et al"


id: e53dbe243048e554991b36d5229929c4
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content:
" (2014) used a combination of three \r\napproaches (SDMs-trait-mechanistic) to determine how long before \r\nextinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened, \r\nbased on the IUCN Red List criteria."


id: 2d5a2bfc87d744c05dda961a8419e801
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 4578
content:
"In previous reports, risk assessed from the literature was generally \r\nbased on estimates of overall range contractions with climate change. \r\nIn AR4, extinction risk was carefully quantified: 'There is medium \r\nconfidence that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are \r\nlikely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average \r\nwarming exceed 1.5-2.5degC (relative to mean temperatures from \r\n1980-1999). As global average temperature increase exceeds about \r\n3.5degC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of \r\nspecies assessed) around the globe.' These estimates approximately \r\ncorrespond to 50-80% reductions in range size (depending upon \r\nstudy), that this assessment equates with a 'high' and 'very high'\r\nextinction risk, respectively (IPCC, 2007)"


id: b688a65bbef84712af7977ff2dc109b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" AR5 stated: 'a large fraction \r\nof terrestrial and freshwater species face increased extinction risk \r\nunder projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, \r\nespecially as climate change interacts with other pressures (high \r\nconfidence)' (Field et al., 2014). A series of multi-species and global \r\nanalyses have been published since AR5, using both statistical models \r\nand trait-based approaches."


id: 3ceb97c94def512fc28a3130deaf404f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"Figure  2.6 |   Biodiversity loss for different areas at increasing levels of \r\nclimate change. The higher the percentage of species projected to lose suitable \r\nclimate in a given area, the higher the risk to ecosystem integrity, functioning and \r\nresilience to climate change. Warming levels are based on global levels (GSAT) above \r\npre-industrial temperatures. Colour shading represents proportion of species for which \r\nthe climate is projected to become sufficiently unsuitable that the species becomes \r\nlocally 'endangered' and at high risk of local extinction within a given pixel across their \r\ncurrent distributions at a given GSAT warming level, based on underlying data (Warren \r\net  al., 2018) (modelled n = 119,813 species globally, with no dispersal, averaged \r\nover 21 CMIP5 climate models)"


id: 3a50a28f167997b06e0ba80915d6d4d0
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content:
" Areas shaded in deep orange and red represent a \r\nsignificant risk of biodiversity loss (areas where climates become sufficiently unsuitable \r\nthat it renders >50% and >75% of species at high risk of becoming locally extinct, \r\nrespectively). The maps of species richness remaining have been overlaid with a \r\nlandcover layer (2015) from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change \r\nInitiative.  This landcover layer leaves habitats classified by the ESA as natural as \r\ntransparent. Areas with a landcover identified as agriculture are 5% transparent, such \r\nthat the potential species richness remaining if the land had not been converted for \r\nagriculture shows as pale shading of the legend colours (very pale yellow to very pale \r\nred). These paler areas represent biodiversity loss due to habitat destruction, but with \r\na potential to be restored, with yellow shading having the potential for restoration to \r\ngreater species richness than orange or red shading."


id: 3c7124086eb780d817b0811b5677ad01
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"'Species' extinction risk', estimated as at very high risk of extinction \r\nglobally, i.e. becoming \"critically endangered\" (sensu IUCN) is shown \r\nin Figures 2.7 across 178 studies and in Figure 2.8a split by taxonomic \r\ngroup. The percentage of species at very high risk of extinction (median \r\nestimates and maximum likely range) will be 9% (max. 14%) at 1.5degC, \r\n10% (max. 18%) at 2degC, 12% (max. 29%) at 3.0degC, 13% (max. 39%) \r\nat 4degC and 15% (max. 48%) at 5degC (Figure 2.7). Maximum estimates \r\nof species at very high risk of extinction reach 60% within the 95% \r\nquartiles, ie the very likely range, for 5degC GSAT warming. Among the \r\ngroups containing the largest numbers of species at a very high risk of \r\nextinction for mid-levels of projected warming (3.2degC rise in GSAT) are: \r\ninvertebrates (15%), specifically pollinators (12%), amphibians (11%, \r\nbut 24% for salamanders) and flowering plants (10%) (Figure 2.8a)"


id: 67f3b8d16037501b0e7b68585c0312b5
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" \r\nAll groups fare substantially better at 2degC, with extinction projections \r\nreducing to <3% for all groups, except salamanders at 7% (medium \r\nconfidence) (Figure 2.8a)."


id: b15e0886debb19563ad0d8547fd752e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 25405
content:
"Figure 2.7 |  Global assessment of species' extinction risks under different levels of warming. Graph shows a synthesis of climate-driven models of individual species \r\nprojected to become at very high risk of extinction globally (i.e, becoming \"critically endandered\" sensu IUCN by losing >80% of their suitable climate space or through estimates \r\nof extinction risk from process-based models). The relationship between modelled projections of extinction (expressed as a proportion of species at a risk of extinction assessed \r\nin individual studies) and GSAT increase above the pre-industrial average. Data (global sample size n = 178 modelled estimates) were taken from a number of sources, including \r\ndigitization of data points in Figure 2 in the synthetic analysis of (Urban, 2015) (note: unweighted for sample size) n = 126; Table 4.1 of AR4 WGII Chapter 2 (Fischlin et al., 2007), \r\nn = 40; (Hannah et al., 2020) n = 6; and (Warren et al., 2018) n = 6"


id: 606d59d5a7b5e6d588a92fa598d8f78f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" The quantile regression (which is robust to the non-normal distribution of the response variable, and less \r\nsensitive to data outliers) was chosen as a descriptive statistic to fit quantile estimates for levels relevant to informing likely (between the 0.17 and 0.83 quantiles, shaded in orange) \r\nand very likely ranges (between the 0.05 and 0.95 quantiles, shaded in green) relating extinction risk to GSAT increase (quantile regression implemented using the Barrodale \r\nand Roberts algorithm in XLSTAT). The roughly equivalent estimate of this risk as expressed in AR4 (Fischlin et al., 2007) is indicated by the dotted block indicating the medium \r\nconfidence statement 'Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction as global \r\nmean temperatures exceed a warming of 2-3degC above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence)"


id: 452d3830794fde90e14aad0df1100177
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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"' This box is open on the right side because AR4 estimates stipulated temperatures \r\nat or exceeding the given levels. Thick dark horizontal bars show the median values of percent of species at very high risk of extinction at 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC, 4degC and 5degC, indicating \r\nthat half of the data points lie above the bar and half below for a given level of global warming."


id: 28bda0f5a156e1b81b5a6d02104d1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"(b) Species groups listed projected to be at a high risk of extinction, corresponding to the IUCN Red List criteria for a species classified as 'endangered' (v3.1) by losing >50% of \r\nits climatically suitable range area. For (a) and (b), values were calculated from the underlying data in (Warren et al., 2018). Values for each temperature are the mean values across \r\n21 CMIP5 models. The grey band represents the high end of extinction risk from the 10th percentile of the climate models to show the maximum range of values, while the low end \r\n(90th percentile, 1.5degC) is not shown as it is too small to appear on the plots. Taxa marked with * represent potential benefits from adaptation, specifically dispersal at realistic rates \r\n(Warren et al., 2018); those with no * have dispersal rates that are essentially not detected in the spatial resolution of the models (20 km). See (Warren et al., 2018) for caveats \r\nand more details"


id: 8d766c032914e48c9fc21d03703b9475
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19783
content:
"Multiple studies predict increases in disease incidence or geographic \r\nand phenological changes of pathogens, vectors and reservoir host \r\nspecies due to climate change with or without other non-climatic \r\nvariables (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moo-Llanes et al., 2013; Roy-Dufresne \r\net al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Laporta et al., 2015; Ryan et al., \r\n2015; Haydock et al., 2016; Hoover and Barker, 2016; Prist et al., 2017; \r\nBlum and Hotez, 2018; Dumic and Severnini, 2018; Hundessa et al., \r\n2018; Ryan et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2021). However, models predicting \r\nchanges in infectious disease risk are complex and sometimes produce \r\nconflicting results and lack consensus (Caminade et al., 2014; Giesen \r\net  al., 2020)"


id: b35387cdb055c181178b39f179e578e9
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content:
" For example, malaria is projected to increase in some \r\nregions of Africa, Asia and South America by the end of the 21st \r\ncentury if public health interventions are not sufficient, but is also \r\nforecasted to decrease in some higher-risk areas (Cross-Chapter Box \r\nIllness in this chapter) (Peterson, 2009; Caminade et al., 2014; Ryan \r\net al., 2015; Khormi and Kumar, 2016; Leedale et al., 2016; Murdock \r\net al., 2016; Endo and Eltahir, 2020; Mordecai et al., 2020)."


id: 87b263238ad60b8c105145f0b7c4d3f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18879
content:
"Shifts in arid system structure and functioning that have been \r\nobserved to date (Section 2.4.3.3) are projected to continue (medium \r\nconfidence). These include widespread woody plant encroachment, \r\nnotably in savanna systems in Africa, Australia and South America, \r\nand are attributed to interactions of LULCC, climate change and CO2\r\nfertilisation effects (Fensholt et al., 2012; Fang et al., 2017; Stevens \r\net  al., 2017). Arid Mongolian steppe grassland did not respond to \r\nexperimentally elevated CO2 (Song et al., 2019). Woody encroachment \r\nis projected to continue or not reverse in North American drylands \r\n(Caracciolo et  al., 2016) and southern African arid ecosystems \r\n(Moncrieff et al., 2014b). Dryland woody encroachment may increase \r\ncarbon stocks, depending on emissions scenario (Martens et al., 2021), \r\nbut reduce soil water and biodiversity of grassland-dependent species \r\ndiversity (Archer et  al., 2017)"


id: f4b8fbde11c6e3de47df51d0d804b43c
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36009
content:
" Warm season (C4) grass expansion \r\ninto arid shrublands risks sudden ecosystem transformation due \r\nto introduced wildfire (Bradley et  al., 2016), a risk anticipated for \r\ngrass-invaded desert ecosystems of Australia and the southwestern \r\nUSA (Horn and St. Clair, 2017). Novel fire regimes in grassy shrublands \r\nhave enhanced grass cover locally in the southern African Nama-Karoo \r\n(du Toit et al., 2015)."


id: 12f72eaf8c1a0fed9dc5b6670e8da51b
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content:
"Substantial changes in vegetation structure and ecosystem processes \r\nare already happening (see Section 2.4). Many of these observations \r\nhave already been projected to take place as early as at least IPCC AR3 \r\n(Rosenzweig et al., 2007), and can they now be increasingly tested for \r\ntheir robustness with observational evidence. These multiple changes \r\nin response to warming (and changes in precipitation and increasing \r\natmospheric CO2 levels that go hand-in-hand with warming) are \r\nfurther expected for already relatively small additional temperature \r\nincreases. In particular, in cold (boreal and tundra) regions, as well \r\nas in dry regions (high confidence), alterations of 2-47% of the areal \r\nextent of terrestrial ecosystems in scenarios of <2degC warming above \r\npre-industrial levels have been projected, increasing drastically with \r\nhigher-warming scenarios (Warren, 2011; Warlind et al., 2014)"


id: b883d588bda4ea4cf67ca2e7a22ad2de
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content:
" More \r\nrecent work, applying also probabilistic methods, confirm the risk \r\nof drastic changes in vegetation cover (e.g., forest to non-forest or \r\nvice versa) at the end of the 21st century even for approximately 2degC \r\nwarming scenarios, especially in tundra, and also in tropical forest and \r\nsavannah regions, with more subtle changes (within a given biome \r\ntype) likely to occur in all regions (Ostberg et al., 2013; Ostberg et al., \r\n2018). Model studies have found 5-20% of terrestrial ecosystems \r\naffected by warming of around 2degC-3degC, increasing to above one-third \r\nat a warming of 4degC-5degC (Ostberg et  al., 2013; Warszawski et  al., \r\n2013)."


id: b8fa8d20d7541576cad50f908560c39a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 26636
content:
"In general, vegetation types are projected to be moving into their \r\n'neighbouring' climates, depending on whether temperature or \r\nprecipitation is expected to be the predominant factor and how \r\nvegetation interacts with the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere \r\n(Warlind et  al., 2014; Scheiter et  al., 2015; Schimel et  al., 2015; \r\nHuntzinger et  al., 2017). For instance, boreal or temperate forest \r\nvegetation is simulated to migrate polewards, closed tropical (moist) \r\nforest is expected to transition towards dry tropical forest types, \r\nwhile climate-driven degradation might expand arid vegetation \r\ncover (Sections  2.5.2.2-2.5.2.9). However, 'novel ecosystems', that \r\nis, communities with no current or historical equivalent because of \r\nthe novel combinations of abiotic conditions under climate change, \r\nare expected to be increasingly common in the future (medium \r\nconfidence), although the regions where these novel ecosystems \r\nmight emerge are still disputed (Reu et al"


id: bd3dde3811bd12f4a2cab576f6d36fef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
", 2014; Radeloff et al., 2015; \r\nOrdonez et al., 2016). The possibility of these novel ecosystems and \r\nthe communities that live within them are a challenge for current \r\nmodelling of ecosystem shifts, and new approaches to conservation \r\nwill be required that are designed to adapt to rapid changes in species \r\ncomposition and the ensuing challenges."


id: d36ded97e014eff6cbcc6264659c77ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 30785
content:
"Worldwide, woody cover is increasing in savannas (Buitenwerf et al., \r\n2012; Donohue et  al., 2013; Stevens et  al., 2017), as a result of \r\ninteractions of elevated CO2 and altered fire and herbivory impacts, \r\nsome of which stems from LULCC (high confidence)(see Section 2.4.3.5; \r\nCross-Chapter Paper 3.2) (Venter et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2021). In some \r\nregions, altered climate may also contribute (Cross-Chapter Paper 3.2). \r\nElevated CO2 benefits plants with C3 photosynthesis (often woody \r\nplants), more than C4 species (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Scheiter et al., \r\n2015; Knorr et  al., 2016a). Increases in woody vegetation in grassy \r\necosystems could provide some carbon increase (medium confidence) \r\n(Zhou et al., 2017; Mureva et al., 2018), but is expected to decrease \r\nbiodiversity (Smit and Prins, 2015; Abreu et al., 2017; Andersen and \r\nSteidl, 2019) and water availability (Honda and Durigan, 2016; Stafford \r\net  al"


id: 2958b7b682808cb18c5f1e11f083f738
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vector_id: 3943
content:
", 2017) and alter ecosystem services like grazing and wood \r\nprovision (high confidence) (Anadon et al., 2014b)."


id: cd9fd4628bb4800a61a5868c2eb0ffba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 29881
content:
"The relative importance of climate, disturbance (e.g., fire/herbivory) \r\nand plant feedbacks in shaping present and future savanna \r\ndistribution varies between continents (Lehmann et  al., 2014), \r\nwhich makes projections of changing the biome extent challenging \r\n(Moncrieff et al., 2016). It has been shown that simulation studies that \r\ndo not account for CO2 interactions but only consider climate change \r\nimpacts do not realistically capture the future distribution of savannas \r\n(high confidence) (Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; Moncrieff et al., 2016; \r\nScheiter et al., 2020). Due to the continued strong effect of CO2 on \r\ntree and shrub-to-grass ratios in future, models suggest a loss of \r\nsavanna extent and conversion into closed canopy forest/thicket and \r\nan expansion of savanna-type vegetation into arid grasslands (Warlind \r\net al., 2014; Moncrieff et al., 2016)"


id: b9a2417cb95070928ac000cfa986cad1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 26743
content:
" In arid savannas and their interface \r\nto grasslands, survival of woody vegetation (which may be stimulated \r\nto grow by increasing CO2) will depend on their capacity to survive \r\npotentially more severe and frequent droughts (Sankaran and Staver, \r\n2019). Across a range of models, for RCP4.5 future climate change \r\nand CO2 concentrations, savanna expanse declines by around 50% \r\n(converting to closed canopy systems) by 2070 in Africa and South \r\nAmerica, 25% in Asia and with small changes in Australia (Moncrieff \r\net al., 2016; Kumar et al., 2021). Future fire-spread is expected to be \r\nreduced with increased woody dominance (Scheiter et al., 2015; Knorr \r\net al., 2016b; Scheiter et al., 2020), feeding back to further increase \r\ntree-to-grass ratios (high confidence)."


id: 2c3ef3bb78b90341dc16e4d32592c527
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"Key factors affecting the future distribution of tropical humid and \r\ndry forests are amounts and seasonalities of precipitation, increased \r\ntemperatures, prolonged droughts and droughted-moderated fires \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Bonai et al., 2016; Corlett, 2016; \r\nLyra et al., 2017; Anderson et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2018; Fontes et al., \r\n2018; O'Connell et  al., 2018; Aguirre-Gutierrez et  al., 2019; Bartlett \r\net  al., 2019; Brando et  al., 2019; Stan and Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2019). \r\nThe probability of severe drought is projected to quadruple in natural \r\nareas in Brazil with >2degC warming (Barbosa and Lakshmi Kumar, \r\n2016; Marengo et al., 2020). Most multi-model studies assuming rapid \r\neconomic growth/business-as-usual scenarios (A2, A1B and RCP8.5) \r\nshow an increase in future woody biomass and areas of woody cover \r\ntowards the end of the 21st century in temperate regions (Boit et al., \r\n2016; Nabuurs et al"


id: 8849d84be631815cc838eac82f9ad8b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
", 2017) and tropical forests in East Africa (Ross \r\net al., 2021) but a decrease in the remaining tropical regions (Anadon \r\net al., 2014a; Boit et al., 2016; Lyra et al., 2017; Nabuurs et al., 2017; \r\nMaia et al., 2020). Terrestrial species are predicted to shift to cooler \r\ntemperatures and higher elevations (Pecl et al., 2017). Tropical species \r\nare more susceptible to climate warming than temperate species \r\n(Rehm and Feeley, 2016; Sentinella et al., 2020). This susceptibility will \r\nbe exacerbated by road-building increasing the ease of access into \r\nforests (Brinck et al., 2017; Taubert et al., 2018; Bovendorp et al., 2019; \r\nSenior et  al., 2019). Furthermore, most tropical cloud forest species \r\nare unable to invade grasslands and this will increase the risk of \r\nextinctions in tropical cloud forests (Rehm and Feeley, 2015)."


id: 4e31d844a01a99fae2e63a2802791a50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 9726
content:
"The impact of unsustainable land use on tropical forests continues \r\nin all regions (see Cross-Chapter Paper 7). Projected climate changes \r\nwill not only impact biodiversity but also the livelihoods of affected \r\npeople (robust evidence, high agreement). Increased drought drives \r\ncrop failures that cause local communities to expand their agricultural \r\narea by further clearing native forests (Desbureaux and Damania, \r\n2018). Climate change is projected to enlarge the area of suitability \r\nfor booming tree crops such as oil palm, acacia, Eucalyptus and \r\nrubber (Koninck et  al., 2011; Cramb et  al., 2015; Nath, 2016; Hurni \r\net al., 2017; Li et al., 2017; Varkkey et al., 2018). An increase of 8% \r\nin the area of rubber plantations in Yunnan Province, China, between \r\n2002-2010 to higher altitudes due to decreased environmental limits, \r\nhas potentially increased pressure on the remaining biodiversity both \r\nwithin and outside of protected areas (Zomer et  al., 2014a)"


id: f38f51ca6342888e6c875e32249decf5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 35831
content:
" As a \r\nconsequence, the suitable area for mammals is projected to be reduced \r\nby 47.7% (RCP2.6) and 67.7% (RCP8.5) by 2070, with large variability \r\ndepending on the different species (Cross-Chapter Paper 7) (Brodie, \r\n2016). To minimize these potential threats, the Yunnan provincial \r\ngovernment has identified suitable areas for the establishment of \r\nnational parks, including the Asian Elephant National Park since 2006. \r\nAnd the government of China developed a national park system in \r\n2013 across the country."


id: 4d3d551a8a62eb035df2a8f486d1b70f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 9583
content:
"Most simulations predict a significant geographical shift of transition \r\nareas between tropical forests and savanna in the tropical and \r\nsubtropical Americas and Himalayas (Anadon et  al., 2014a; Rashid \r\net al., 2015). Forest dieback, as postulated for the Amazon region, does \r\nnot occur in the majority of simulations (Malhi et al., 2009; Poulter et al., \r\n2010; Rammig et al., 2010; Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; Huntingford \r\net  al., 2013; Davies-Barnard et  al., 2015; Sakschewski et  al., 2016; \r\nWu et al., 2016a). Model projections of future biodiversity in tropical \r\nforests are rare. Arguably, species are most vulnerable to climate \r\nchange effects at higher altitudes or at the dry end of tropical forest \r\noccurrence (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Krupnick, 2013; \r\nNobre et al., 2016; Trisurat, 2018)"


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content:
" Tropical lowlands are expected to \r\nlose plant species as temperatures rise above species' heat tolerance, \r\nbut could also generate novel communities of heat-tolerant species \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Colwell et al., 2008; Trisurat et al., \r\n2009; Trisurat et al., 2011; Krupnick, 2013; Zomer et al., 2014a; Zomer \r\net al., 2014b; Sullivan et al., 2020; Pomoim et al., 2021)."


id: ea22ad6014dbd82361846d2c4553dc3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 34338
content:
"Increases in the extent, severity and duration of fires are expected \r\nin all peatland regions in the future due to temperature increases \r\n(Section  4.3.1.1), changes in precipitation patterns (Section  4.3.1.2) \r\nand increases in ignition sources (e.g., lightning) (Section  5.4.3.2), \r\nwith associated rapid carbon losses to the atmosphere (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Dadap et  al., 2019; Chen et  al., 2021a; \r\nNelson et al., 2021). For example, drought has been linked to fires in \r\nSoutheast Asian peatlands (Field et al., 2009) and there are predicted \r\ndecreases in mean summer precipitation (10-30%) for high and low \r\nRCPs, particularly over the Indonesian region, by the mid and late \r\n21st century (Section  12.4.2.2) (Tangang et  al., 2020; Taufik et  al., \r\n2020). During wet years, the fire probability in Indonesian peatlands \r\nalso significantly increases (by 15-40%) when temperatures in July \r\nto October surpass 0"


id: e735b3b63a54e044b28b600a72c091ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 33874
content:
"5degC anomalies compared to the 1995-2015 \r\nbaseline (Fernandes et al., 2017). Overall, current evidence suggests \r\nthat peat carbon losses via fire have the potential to be equal to, or \r\ngreater than, losses due to human peatland drainage and disturbance \r\n(limited evidence, high agreement) (Turetsky et al., 2015)."


id: f2d9bc507c53a2136ae39ad1151efd49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35735
content:
"The overall effect of climate change on the extent of northern peatlands \r\nis still debated (limited evidence, low agreement). It is expected that \r\nclimate change will drive the expansion of high-latitude peatlands \r\npoleward of their present distribution due to warming, permafrost \r\ndegradation and glacier retreat, which could provide new land and \r\nconditions favourable for peat development (limited evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Zhang et al., 2017b), as seen during the last de-glacial \r\nwarming (robust evidence, high agreement) (MacDonald et al., 2006; \r\nJones and Yu, 2010; Ratcliffe et al., 2018). Peatland area loss (shrinking) \r\nnear the southern limit of their current distribution or in areas where \r\nthe climate becomes unsuitable is also expected (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Section 2.3.4.3.2) (Finkelstein and Cowling, 2011 \r\nGallego-Sala and Prentice, 2013; Schneider et  al"


id: 5718881ed9e983dbd076b3b77fce3be1
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content:
", 2016; Muller and \r\nJoos, 2020) (Muller and Joos, 2021), but they could persist if moisture \r\nis maintained via their capacity to self-regulate. In western Canada, \r\na study suggests that peatlands may persist until 2100, even though \r\nthe climate will be less suitable (Schneider et al., 2016). Simulations \r\nsuggest that climate change-driven increases in temperature and \r\natmospheric CO2 could drive reductions in the northern peatland area \r\nup to 18% (SSP1-2.6), 41% (SSP2-4.5) and 61% (SSP5-8.5) by 2300 \r\n(Muller and Joos, 2020). This is in contrast with the findings of northern \r\npeatland persistence and expansion under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 \r\nscenarios in 1861-2099 by another modelling study (Qiu et al., 2020). \r\nIn the Tropics, the only available study suggests peatland area will \r\nincrease until 2300, mainly due to increases in precipitation and the \r\nCO2 fertilisation effect (Muller and Joos, 2020; Muller and Joos, 2021)."


id: 2433222fd8860ed3fe1427f6b9629d00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 3142
content:
"Any climate change- or human-driven degradation of peatlands will \r\nalso entail losses in water storage (limited evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Wooster et  al., 2012; Hirano et  al., 2015; Cole et  al., 2019; Taufik \r\net  al., 2019) and biodiversity (Harrison, 2013; Lampela et  al., 2017; \r\nRenou-Wilson et  al., 2019). The environmental archive contained in \r\npeat that preserves records of vegetation, hydrology, climate change, \r\npollution and/or human disturbances is also being lost as peatlands \r\ndegrade (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006; MacDonald et  al., 2006; \r\nTurunen, 2008; Field et  al., 2009; Flannigan et  al., 2009; Jones and \r\nYu, 2010; Kasischke et al., 2010; Peterson et al., 2010; Finkelstein and \r\nCowling, 2011; Rooney et al., 2012; Gallego-Sala and Colin Prentice, \r\n2013; Lamarque et al., 2013; Hirano et al., 2014; Brouns et al., 2015; \r\nTuretsky et  al., 2015; Miettinen et  al., 2016; Schneider et  al., 2016; \r\nCobb et al., 2017; Fernandes et al., 2017; Itoh et al"


id: dc54fcc0e511cb9260251ea3ebeb4538
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vector_id: 32171
content:
", 2017; Gallego-Sala \r\net al., 2018; Greiser and Joosten, 2018; Ratcliffe et al., 2018; Dadap \r\net al., 2019; Leifeld et al., 2019; Chaudhary et al., 2020; Hoyt et al., "


id: 5db40341505b6c0952dece7ed598eb1c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
"For instance, even if warming achieved by 2100 remained constant \r\nafter 2100, such committed responses continue to occur. These include: \r\n(1) continued Amazon forest loss (Boulton et al., 2017), consistent with \r\nresults in Pugh et al. (2018) that found continued tropical forest cover \r\nloss across a range of models and simulation setups, and (2) across \r\nAfrica, an increased shift towards woody C3 vegetation was found in \r\nequilibrium state, the overall response depending on the atmospheric \r\nCO2 concentration (Scheiter et  al., 2020). In Pugh et  al. (2018), the \r\nopposite was found for boreal forest cover, which showed a strong \r\ncommitted increase. The committed changes in vegetation composition \r\ncorrespond to large committed changes in terrestrial carbon uptake \r\nand losses (Boulton et al., 2017; Pugh et al., 2018; Scheiter et al., 2020), \r\nand would plausibly also appear in other ecosystem functioning and \r\nservices"


id: b7d05703ede81cfe2b3f51906e203e3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 26455
content:
" These studies point to the importance of having not only a \r\nmulti-decadal but also a multi-century perspective when exploring \r\nthe impacts of political decisions on climate change mitigation taken \r\nnow. Even if climate-warming targets are met, published evidence \r\nso far suggests that fundamental changes in some ecosystems are \r\nlikely as these correspond to well-understood ecosystem physiological \r\nresponses that trigger long-term changes in composition."


id: d63174bedcbca293ebd7614a50e9a60f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 31211
content:
"Models of vegetation response to climate project acceleration in the \r\ncoming decades of observed increases in shrub dominance and boreal \r\nforest encroachment that have been driven by recent warming (Settele \r\net  al., 2014), leading to a shrinking of the area of tundra globally \r\n(medium confidence) (Mod and Luoto, 2016; Gang et  al., 2017). \r\nSimulating changes in tundra vegetation is complicated by permafrost \r\ndynamics (e.g., the formation of thaw ponds and draining of existing \r\nponds), changes in precipitation and low nutrient availability (which \r\nmay promote the abundance of graminoids) (van der Kolk et al., 2016). \r\nChanges in vegetation, when combined with warming and increased \r\nprecipitation effects on soil thawing and carbon cycling, are projected \r\nto modify GHG emissions and have biophysical feedbacks to regional \r\nand global climate. High uncertainty in modelled carbon cycle changes \r\narises from differences between the vegetation models (Nishina et al"


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vector_id: 30433
content:
", \r\n2015; Ito et  al., 2016). In addition, climate change is expected to \r\nstrongly interact with other factors, such as fire, to further increase \r\nuncertainty in projections of tundra ecosystem function (Jiang et al., \r\n2017)."


id: 710a948de8e8e47ce910823efbc3b99e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15418
content:
"To assess future climate change impacts on ecosystems, we use models to project their future distribution. Comparing the trends in \r\nthe observed changes against the projections can help assess the strength of the model projections. In this box, we compare observed \r\ntrends of changes in ecosystem structure to projections highlighted in previous IPCC reports, specifically AR3 (IPCC, 2001), AR4 (Fischlin \r\net al., 2007) and AR5 (Settele et al., 2014). We use this to assess how well the projections are matching up with observed changes. The \r\nmap represents studies documenting observed changes in common plant functional groups (e.g., trees, grasses and shrubs). Studies \r\ndocumenting changes in plant functional groups were collated from published papers in natural and semi-natural areas. Studies \r\nwere included if climate change or interactions between climate change and land use showed a causal link to the observed change\r\n(Table SM2.4)"


id: 42aa9245057055fb3d988568e748f584
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 7880
content:
" Studies were excluded if the changes were only from landscape/land use transformation (e.g., deforestation). In each \r\npaper, we recorded the geographical location and type of functional change, and noted the causes. Observed changes are plotted onto a \r\nbiome map derived from the WWF ecoregions database (Olson et al., 2001). Trends in changing plant functional types are good indicators \r\nof potential biome shifts and are used to assess how observations match up with projections."


id: cf18f5a05b3f2b38c408a1a6f21f6d5a
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vector_id: 30117
content:
"Assessment: There is high agreement between observations and projections of tree death in temperate and boreal forests, with current \r\nprojections (AR6) indicating this trend will continue (Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.3.3, 2.5.4). Forest death is most widely recorded in central \r\nEurope and western North America (Fig. Box 2.1.1). There is also very high agreement between observations and projections of woody \r\nencroachment in savannas, grasslands and tundra, with projections also indicating that this trend is likely to continue (Sections 2.4.3.5, \r\n2.4.3.9, 2.5.2.5, 2.5.2.9, 2.5.4). Observations of desert-greening show good agreement with earlier projections. Patterns of desertification \r\nare also occurring, although the geographical match between projections and observations shows moderate agreement, likely due to \r\nthe strong role of land use in this process"


id: 673d12f554a8e5faa13c20f1737d7e0e
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vector_id: 13838
content:
" Projections of tropical forest expansion into mesic savannas and boreal forest expansion into \r\ntundra also show agreement with the observations."


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vector_id: 37589
content:
"Projections indicate greater exposure of tropical rainforests, shrublands \r\nand grasslands, temperate conifer forests and grasslands, and tundra \r\nto novel climates (Hoffmann et al., 2019b; Elsen et al., 2020). A climate \r\nchange scenario of ~3.5degC temperature increase by 2100 could expose \r\n32% of the protected area in humid tropical forests (1.6 million km2\r\n in \r\n2000) to climate that would be novel to humid tropical-forest protected \r\nareas; by 2050, the climate currently present in humid tropical-forest \r\nprotected areas could disappear from 0.6  million km2\r\n (12% of the \r\ncurrent total area) (Tabor et al., 2018). High rates of deforestation and \r\nclimate change combined could expose 2% of the humid tropical-forest \r\nprotected area (Tabor et al., 2018). Regional analyses under RCP8.5 \r\nalso project the substantial disappearance of the current climate in \r\nprotected areas in Bolivia, Chile and Peru (Fuentes-Castillo et  al., \r\n2020), Canada, Mexico and the USA (Batllori et al"


id: 981ac99e7ed40fb2f8ecd521b29db3eb
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content:
", 2017; Holsinger \r\net al., 2019), China (Zomer et al., 2015), Europe (Nila et al., 2019) and \r\nIndonesia (Scriven et al., 2015). Projected climate change could expose \r\nan extensive part of the global protected area to disappearing and \r\nnovel climate conditions (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 1)."


id: 263a62a8911cceaa3f4a8098d16769d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 3431
content:
"In 2009, deforestation, agricultural expansion, overgrazing and \r\nurbanisation exposed one-third of the global protected area (6 million \r\nkm2\r\n) to intense human pressure, a 6% increase from 1993 (Venter et al., \r\n2016; Jones et al., 2018). The exposure to observed climate change has \r\nnot yet been quantified for protected areas globally, but research has \r\nanalysed the spatial patterns and magnitudes of observed changes for \r\nthe 360,000 km2\r\n system of US national parks (Gonzalez et al., 2018) \r\nincluding the first national park in the world. From 1895 to 2010, \r\nmean annual temperature of the US national park area increased \r\nat a rate of 1degC +- 0.2degC per century, double the rate of the whole \r\nUSA, and precipitation decreased in 12% of the national park area, \r\ncompared with 4% for the whole USA, due to a high fraction of US \r\nnational park area being in the Arctic, at high elevations, and in the \r\narid southwestern USA (Gonzalez et al., 2018)"


id: 269949adc891989701a8d46651920ace
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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content:
" In addition, analyses of \r\nweather-station measurements in and near six South African national \r\nparks found that the maximum temperature increased at a rate of \r\n0.024degC +- 0.003degC yr-1 from 1960 to 2010 (Van Wilgen et al., 2016). \r\nWhile a substantial fraction of global protected area has been exposed \r\nto observed changes in human land cover, the global exposure to \r\nobserved climate change is unquantified."


id: f49db5d7f79036c832ae8c055e11b2de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 35991
content:
"Wildfire risks to people include death and destruction of their homes, \r\nrespiratory illnesses from smoke (Ford et al., 2018; Machado-Silva et al., \r\n2020), post-fire flooding from areas exposed by vegetation loss and \r\ndegraded water quality due to increased sediment flow (Dahm et al., \r\n2015) and the chemical precursors of carcinogenic trihalomethanes \r\nwhen water is later chlorinated for drinking (Section  2.5.3.7) (Uzun \r\net al., 2020). Under RCP8.5 and shared socioeconomic pathway SSP3 \r\n(high population growth, slow urbanisation), the number of people \r\nliving in fire-prone areas could increase by three-quarters to 720 million \r\nin 2100, in a projected global population of 12.4 billion people (Knorr \r\net al., 2016b). Lower emissions under RCP4.5 could reduce the number \r\nof people at risk by 70 million. In these projections, human population \r\ngrowth increases human exposure to wildfires more than increases \r\nin burned area (Knorr et  al., 2016b)"


id: 308f4ea59a223090634db6e078757630
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5064
content:
" A global temperature increase \r\n<2degC could increase global population exposure to wildfire by ~30% \r\n(Lange et al., 2020). Increased wildfire under continued climate change \r\nincreases the probability of human exposure to fire and risks to public \r\nhealth (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 7b4c653fa544fcbd04410939c77b40d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 16986
content:
"Terrestrial and freshwater protected areas can also serve as climate \r\nchange refugia, that is, locations where suitable conditions may persist \r\nfor the species into the future (e.g., Section 2.6.5.6). In Canada, Mexico \r\nand the USA, only a fraction of the protected area is located in potential \r\nclimate change refugia under a 4degC temperature increase, estimated \r\nat 4% (Michalak et al., 2018) to 7% (Batllori et al., 2017). Potential \r\nrefugia from biome shifts due to climate change under temperature \r\nincreases of 1.8degC-3.4degC cover <1% of the area of US national parks \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010), a fraction that diminishes to near zero when \r\nclimate change is combined with habitat fragmentation due to LUC \r\n(Eigenbrod et al., 2015). Protected areas in boreal ecosystems could \r\nserve as refugia for species shifting north in Canada (Berteaux et al., \r\n2018) and Finland (Lehikoinen et al., 2019)"


id: f50f7ad956830415cbca315068729fdc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 36068
content:
" Invasive species, habitat \r\nloss and other disturbances in protected areas could be lower than in \r\nunprotected areas across Europe (Gallardo et al., 2017), specifically in \r\nSpain (Regos et al., 2016), and also in Sri Lanka (Kariyawasam et al., \r\n2020). Protected areas conserve refugia from climate change under \r\na temperature increase of 4degC, which is important for biodiversity \r\nconservation but is limited to <10% of the current protected area \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: 18cbdcd603cd8d0777279d494f0eb522
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1400
content:
"and increase fire intensity by 90% (De Faria et al., 2017). Lower GHG \r\nemissions (RCP4.5) and reduced deforestation could reduce the risk of \r\nfires to a one-fifth increase in the area of high fire probability (Fonseca \r\net al., 2019) and a 100-500% increase in burned area by 2100 (Le \r\nPage et al., 2017). Moreover, increased fire, deforestation and drought, \r\nacting via vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, increase the risk of \r\nextensive forest dieback and potential biome shifts of up to half of the \r\nAmazon rainforest to grassland, a tipping point that could release an \r\namount of carbon that would substantially increase global emissions \r\n(Oyama and Nobre, 2003; Sampaio et al., 2007; Lenton et al., 2008; \r\nNepstad et al., 2008; Malhi et al., 2009; Settele et al., 2014; Lyra et al., \r\n2016; Zemp et  al., 2017a; Zemp et  al., 2017b; Brando et  al., 2020)"


id: 5d7fd996420187995b35b738f33086da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12233
content:
" \r\nContinued climate change, combined with deforestation, increases \r\nrisks of wildfire and extensive forest dieback in the Amazon rainforest \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 97006903d40bb7910a70835ec97de4ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21271
content:
"In summary, under a high-emission scenario that increases global \r\ntemperature 4degC by 2100, climate change could increase the global \r\nburned area by 50-70% and the global mean fire frequency by ~30%, \r\nwith increases on one- to two-thirds and decreases on one-fifth of \r\nglobal land (medium confidence). Lower emissions that would limit the \r\nglobal temperature increase to <2degC would reduce projected increases \r\nof burned area to ~35% and projected increases of fire frequency to \r\n~20% (medium confidence). Increased wildfire, combined with erosion \r\ndue to deforestation, could degrade water supplies (high confidence)"


id: 71dc75e7ff17210f8c29a382d95c1c37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15543
content:
" \r\nFor ecosystems with an historically low fire frequency, a projected \r\n4degC rise in global temperature increases risks of fire, contributing \r\nto potential tree mortality and conversion of over half the Amazon \r\nrainforest to grassland and thawing of the Arctic permafrost that \r\ncould release 11-200 GtC that could substantially exacerbate climate \r\nchange (medium confidence)."


id: 14fa6600ae1dcd7cc700b0ed1140a2f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 806
content:
"In Amazon rainforests, the relatively lower buffering capacity for \r\nplant moisture during drought increases the risk of tree mortality \r\nand, combined with increased heat from climate change and fire from \r\ndeforestation, the possibility of a tipping point of extensive forest \r\ndieback and a biome shift to grassland (Oyama and Nobre, 2003; \r\nSampaio et al., 2007; Lenton et al., 2008; Nepstad et al., 2008; Malhi \r\net al., 2009; Salazar and Nobre, 2010; Settele et al., 2014; Lyra et al., \r\n2016; Zemp et al., 2017b; Brando et al., 2020). This could occur at a \r\n4degC-5degC temperature increase above that of the pre-industrial period \r\n(Salazar and Nobre, 2010). Under RCP8.5, half the Amazon tropical \r\nevergreen forest could turn into grassland through drought-induced \r\ntree mortality and wildfire, but lower emissions (RCP4.5) could limit \r\nthis loss to ~5% (Lyra et al., 2016)"


id: 3b6acf03c51666b6419db494059784e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 6702
content:
" The decline in precipitation due \r\nto reduced evapotranspiration inputs after forest loss could cause \r\nadditional Amazon forest loss of one-quarter to one-third (Zemp \r\net al., 2017a). Similarly, in Guinean tropical deciduous forest in Africa, \r\nclimate change under RCP8.5 could increase mortality 700% by 2100 \r\nor 400% under lower emissions (RCP4.5; (Claeys et al., 2019). These \r\nprojections indicate risks of climate change-induced tree mortality "


id: 4bec9f6d5d153260a0ede1c789867e7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 9366
content:
"Temperate and boreal forests possess greater diversity of physiological \r\ntraits related to plant hydraulics, so they are more buffered against \r\ndrought than tropical forests (Anderegg et al., 2018). Nevertheless, in \r\ntemperate forests, drought-induced tree mortality under RCP8.5 could \r\ncause the loss of half the Northern Hemisphere conifer forest area by 2100 \r\n(McDowell et al., 2016). In the western USA, under RCP8.5, one-tenth \r\nof forest area is highly vulnerable to drought-induced mortality by 2050 \r\n(Buotte et  al., 2019). In California, increased evapotranspiration in \r\nSierra Nevada conifer forests increases the potential fraction of the area \r\nat risk of tree mortality by 15-20% per degree Celsius (Goulden and \r\nBales, 2019). In Alaska, fire-induced tree mortality from climate change \r\nunder RCP8.5 could reduce the extent of spruce forest (Picea sp.) by \r\n8-44% by 2100 (Pastick et  al., 2017). Under RCP8"


id: 8ee26c0c73cc5c3beffc9774ad757e32
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 20007
content:
"5, tree mortality \r\nfrom drought, wildfire and bark beetles could reduce the timber \r\nproductivity of boreal forests in Canada by 2100 below the current \r\nlevels (Boucher et al., 2018; Chaste et al., 2019; Brecka et al., 2020). \r\nIn Tasmania, projected increases in wildfire (Fox-Hughes et al., 2014) \r\nincrease the risk of mortality of mesic vegetation (Harris et al., 2018b) \r\nand threaten the disappearance of the long-lived endemic pencil pine \r\n(Athrotaxis cupressoides) (Holz et  al., 2015; Worth et  al., 2016) and \r\ntemperate montane rainforest (Mariani et al., 2019). These projections \r\nindicate risks of climate change-induced tree mortality reducing some \r\ntemperate forest areas by half under emissions scenarios of 2.5degC-4degC \r\nabove the pre-industrial period (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: bdb66f549856c9f0bc3913fa8c6064c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27409
content:
"Model projections suggest a reduction of permafrost extent and \r\npotentially large carbon losses for all warming scenarios (Canadell \r\net al., 2021). Already a mean temperature increase of 2degC could reduce \r\nthe total permafrost area extent by about 5-20% by 2100 (Comyn-Platt \r\net al., 2018; Yokohata et al., 2020). Associated CO2 losses in the order of \r\n15 Gt up to nearly 70 Gt by 2100 have been projected across a number \r\nof modelling studies (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015; Comyn-Platt \r\net  al., 2018; Yokohata et  al., 2020). Limiting the global temperature \r\nincrease to 1.5degC versus 2degC could reduce projected permafrost \r\nCO2 losses by 2100 by 24.2 Gt (median, calculated for a 3-m depth) \r\n(Comyn-Platt et al., 2018). Losses are possibly underestimated in the \r\nstudies that consider only the upper permafrost layers. Likewise, the \r\nactual committed carbon loss may well be larger (e.g., eventually a loss \r\nof approx"


id: 6884e217a276944836e6b5a8dc412c35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 14034
content:
" 40% of today's permafrost area extent if climate is stabilised \r\nat 2degC above pre-industrial levels) due to the long time scale of warming \r\nin deep permafrost layers (Chadburn et al., 2017). It is not known at \r\nwhich level of global warming an abrupt permafrost collapse (estimated \r\nto enhance CO2 emissions by 40% in 2300 in a high-emissions scenario) \r\ncompared to gradual thaw (Turetsky et  al., 2020) would have to be \r\nconsidered an important additional risk. Large uncertainties arise also \r\nfrom interactions with changes in surface hydrology and/or northward \r\nmigrating woody vegetation as climate warms, which could dampen \r\nor even reverse projected net carbon losses in some regions (McGuire \r\net al., 2018a; Mekonnen et al., 2018; Pugh et al., 2018). Overall, there \r\nis low confidence on how carbon-permafrost interactions will affect \r\nfuture carbon cycle and climate, although net carbon losses and thus \r\npositive (amplifying) feedbacks are likely (Sections  2.5.2.10, 2.5.3"


id: bb050da7818c86b524cff27fa9cd815b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 26964
content:
"5) \r\n(Shukla et al., 2019). See also WGI AR6 (Canadell et al., 2021) for a \r\ndiscussion on impacts of higher-emission and warming scenarios."


id: bc692a50bbb644415d0c514948b9bab6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27223
content:
"Globally, increasing atmospheric CO2 enhances the terrestrial sink but \r\ntemperature increases constrain it, reflecting the biological process \r\nunderstanding highlighted in previous IPCC reports (high confidence). \r\nAnalyses of atmospheric inversion model output and spatial climate data \r\nindicate a sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to CO2 fertilisation of \r\n3.1 +- 0.1 Gt to 8.1 +- 0.3 Gt per 100 ppm CO2 (~1degC increase) and a \r\nsensitivity to temperature of -0.5 +- 0.2 Gt to -1.1 +- 0.1 Gt per degree \r\nCelsius (Fernandez-Martinez et al., 2019). The future of the global land \r\ncarbon sink (Section  2.4.4.4) nevertheless remains highly uncertain \r\nbecause (i) of regionally complex interactions of climate change and \r\nchanges in atmospheric CO2 with vegetation, soil and aquatic processes, \r\n(ii) episodic events such as heat waves or droughts (and related impacts \r\nthrough mortality, wildfire or insects, pests and diseases) (Section 2.5.3.2, \r\n2.5.3"


id: 8a9fca29e92666ba7cb62b3c958621ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19350
content:
"3) are so far only incompletely captured in carbon cycle models, \r\n(iii) the legacy effects from historic LUC and environmental changes \r\nare incompletely captured but likely to decline in future and (iv) lateral \r\ncarbon transport processes such as the export of inland waters and \r\nerosion are incompletely understood and modelled (Pugh et al., 2019a; \r\nFriedlingstein et al., 2020; Krause et al., 2020; Canadell et al., 2021)."


id: 830eb0b1bc495529de9f7c5969181216
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18150
content:
"Peatland carbon is estimated as about 550-1000 Gt in northern \r\nlatitudes (many of these peatlands would be found in permafrost \r\nregions) (Turetsky et al., 2015; Nichols and Peteet, 2019) and >100 Gt \r\nin tropical regions (Turetsky et al., 2015; Dargie et al., 2017). For both \r\nnorthern mid- and high-latitude and tropical peatlands, a shift from \r\ncontemporary CO2 sinks to sources were simulated in high-warming \r\nscenarios (Wang et  al., 2018a; Qiu et  al., 2020). Due to the lack of \r\nlarge-scale modelling studies, there is low confidence for climate change \r\nimpacts on peat carbon uptake and emissions. The largest risk to tropical \r\npeatlands is expected to arise from drainage and conversion to forestry \r\nor agriculture, which would outpace the impacts of climate change (Page \r\nand Baird, 2016; Leifeld et al., 2019; Cooper et al., 2020). The magnitude \r\nof possible carbon losses is uncertain, however, and depends strongly \r\non socioeconomic scenarios (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.4.4.2; 2.4.4"


id: 38a60a3d7f6c063d35568a01dec205ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 6283
content:
"Bond, 2015; Knorr et al., 2016a). As a consequence, enhanced woody \r\ncover is expected to occur in the future, especially in mesic savannas, \r\nwhile in xeric savannas an increase in woody cover would occur in \r\nregions with enhanced precipitation (Criado et al., 2020). Even though \r\nsemiarid regions have dominated the global trend in land CO2 uptake \r\nin recent decades (Ahlstrom et  al., 2015), so far, most studies that \r\ninvestigated future climate change impacts on savanna ecosystems have \r\nconcentrated on changes in the extent of land area affected (2.5.2.5) \r\nrather than on carbon cycling, with medium confidence for increasing \r\nwoody cover:grass ratios (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Midgley and Bond, \r\n2015; Moncrieff et al., 2016; Criado et al., 2020)"


id: 9cae1799414d4f8e64d85606248a0d9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22186
content:
" Increases in woody \r\nvegetation in what is now grass-dominated would possibly come with \r\na carbon benefit, for instance, it was found that a broad range of future \r\nclimate and CO2 changes would enhance vegetation carbon storage on \r\nAustralian savannas (Scheiter et al., 2015). Results from a number of \r\nfield experiments indicate, however, that impacts on total ecosystem \r\ncarbon storage may be smaller due to a loss in below-ground carbon \r\n(Coetsee et al., 2013; Wigley et al., 2020). Nunez et al. (2021) critique \r\nexisting incentives to promote the invasion of non-native trees into \r\ntreeless areas as a means of carbon sequestration, raising doubts about \r\nthe effects on fire, albedo, biodiversity and water yield (see Box 2.2)."


id: fa1a8731fb0d371fb4ab005ea1ef0ad8
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vector_id: 36867
content:
"is expected to lead to shifts in consumer-resource interactions \r\nthat also contribute to losses of top predators or top herbivores \r\n(Sections  2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3, 2.5.4; (Lurgi et  al., 2012; Damien and \r\nTougeron, 2019). Cascading trophic effects triggered by top predators \r\nor the largest herbivores propagate through food webs and reverberate \r\nthrough to the functioning of whole ecosystems, notably altering \r\nproductivity, carbon and nutrient turnover and net carbon storage \r\n(medium confidence) (Wilmers and Schmitz, 2016; Sobral et al., 2017; \r\nStoner et al., 2018). Across different field experiments, the ecosystem \r\nconsequences of the presence or absence of herbivores and carnivores \r\nhave been found to be quantitatively as large as the effects of other \r\nenvironmental change drivers such as warming, enhanced CO2, fire and \r\nvariable nitrogen deposition (medium confidence) (Hooper et al., 2012; \r\nSmith et  al., 2015)"


id: 66c9129100f748e0129cd5b7a48b8290
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13766
content:
" Some local and regional modelling experiments \r\nhave begun to explore animal impacts on vegetation dynamics and \r\ncarbon and nutrient cycling (Pachzelt et al., 2015; Dangal et al., 2017; \r\nBerzaghi et al., 2019). Turnover rate is the chief factor that determines \r\nfuture land-ecosystem carbon dynamics and hence carbon-climate \r\nfeedbacks (Friend et al., 2014). To improve projections, it is imperative \r\nto better quantify the broader role of carnivores, grazers and browsers \r\nand the way these interact in global studies of how ecosystems \r\nrespond to climate change. "


id: fceffb4d8e3e89adbd327f208b1c21de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37306
content:
"Substantial climate change-driven impacts on tropical tree cover and \r\nvegetation type are projected in all studies, irrespective of whether or \r\nnot the degree amounts to a forest \"dieback\" (Sections 2.4.3.6, 2.4.4.3, \r\n2.5.2.6, 2.5.3.3) (Davies-Barnard et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2016a; Zemp \r\net al., 2017a; Canadell et al., 2021) . Accordingly, models also suggest \r\na continuation of tropical forests acting as carbon sinks (Huntingford \r\net al., 2013; Mercado et al., 2018). A recent study combining field plot \r\ndata with statistical models (Hubau et al., 2020) indicates that, in the \r\nAmazonian and possibly also in the African forest, the carbon sink in \r\nabove-ground biomass already declined in the three decades up to 2015. \r\nThis trend is distinct in the Amazon whereas data from Africa suggests a \r\npossible decline after 2010. The authors estimate the vegetation carbon \r\nsink in 2030-2040 to decline to zero+-0.205 PgC yr-1 in the Amazon and \r\nto 0.26+-0"


id: 9105a4c0c82b6ad95b68812416445496
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20357
content:
"215 PgC yr-1 in Africa (a loss of 14% compared to the present). \r\nTheir results suggest that, over time, CO2 fertilisation is outweighed by \r\nthe impacts of higher temperatures and drought that enhance tree \r\nmortality and diminish growth. The degree of thermal resilience of \r\ntropical forests is still uncertain, however (Sullivan et al., 2020)."


id: 5db02df1d350f41538fa9fa066598b76
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vector_id: 12265
content:
"The possibility of feedbacks and interactions between climate drivers \r\nand biological systems or ecological processes was identified as a \r\nsignificant emerging issue in AR5, and has since also been highlighted \r\nin the SRCCL and the SR1.5. It is virtually certain that land cover \r\nchanges affect regional and global climate through changes to albedo, \r\nevapotranspiration and roughness (very high confidence) (Perugini \r\net al., 2017). There is growing evidence that biosphere-related climate \r\nprocesses are being affected by climate change in combination \r\nwith disturbance and LULCC (high confidence) (Jia et al., 2019). It is \r\nvirtually certain that land surface change caused by disturbances such \r\nas forest fires, hurricanes, phenological changes, insect outbreaks and \r\ndeforestation affect carbon, water and energy exchanges, thereby \r\ninfluencing weather and  climate (very high confidence) (Table  2.4; \r\nFigure  2.10) (Bright et  al., 2013; Brovkin et  al., 2013; Naudts et  al"


id: 79e8e33eaf109835761453cf2e76bf51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 16757
content:
"Feedbacks can be positive or negative (i.e., amplify or dampen the \r\noriginal forcing), vary spatially and seasonally, and act over large \r\ngeographic areas and long time periods (more than decades), \r\nmaking them difficult to observe and quantify directly (Schimel et al., \r\n2015; Canadell et al., 2021). Due to the positive impacts of CO2 on \r\nvegetation growth and ecosystem carbon storage (high confidence) \r\n(Sections  2.4.4.4, 2.5.5.4) (Canadell et  al., 2021), the associated \r\nclimate feedback is negative (i.e., increased removal of atmospheric \r\nCO2 and dampened warming, compared to an absence of the \r\nfeedback). By contrast, projected global losses of carbon in warmer \r\nclimates (Canadell et al., 2021) imply a positive climate feedback. WGI \r\n(Canadell et  al., 2021) assesses an overall increase in land carbon \r\nuptake through the 21st century. However, the overall strength of \r\nthe carbon cycle-climate feedback remains very uncertain"


id: 3923dbc9f942643b8b388ba7811d3171
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 6365
content:
"Climate-induced shifts towards forests in what is currently tundra \r\nwould be expected to reduce regional albedo especially in spring, but \r\nalso during parts of winter when trees are snow-free (whereas tundra \r\nvegetation would be covered in snow), which amplifies warming \r\nregionally (high confidence) (Perugini et al., 2017; Jia et al., 2019). Trees \r\nwould also enhance momentum absorption compared to low tundra \r\nvegetation, thus impacting surface-atmosphere mixing of latent \r\nand sensible heat fluxes (Jia et al., 2019). Boreal forests insulate and \r\nstabilize permafrost and reduce fluctuations of ground temperature: \r\nthe amplitude of variation of ground surface temperatures was 28degC at \r\na forested site, compared to 60degC in nearby grassland (Section 2.5.2.7) \r\n(Bonan, 1989; Stuenzi et al., 2021a; Stuenzi et al., 2021b)"


id: 4f0878861595aba74d954f2bfec2d2f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9876
content:
"Overall, uncertainty as to the quantity of carbon fluxes within fresh\u0002water ecosystems and between terrestrial and freshwater systems, and \r\nsubsequent emissions to the atmosphere remains very high (Raymond \r\net al., 2013; Catalan et al., 2016; Stanley et al., 2016; Evans et al., 2017; \r\nDrake et al., 2018; Seekell et al., 2018; Sanches et al., 2019; Bodmer \r\net al., 2020; Keller et al., 2020; Canadell et al., 2021) (see Table SM2.1.). \r\nProjections of carbon fluxes are, for example, challenged by the com\u0002plex interaction between rising water temperatures, loss of ice, changes \r\nin hydrology, ecosystem productivity, increased extreme events and \r\nvariation in terrestrial-matter transport. While we are still short of \r\nempirical data, particularly in the Tropics (DelSontro et al., 2018), im\u0002provements in sensor technology (Eugster et al., 2011; Gonzalez-Valen\u0002cia et al., 2014; Maeck et al., 2014; Delwiche et al., 2015) and the use \r\nof statistically robust survey designs (Beaulieu et al"


id: bcf1903d65d72982f872fd87e2e5baf7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27291
content:
", 2016; Wik et al., \r\n2016) have improved the accuracy of measurements of GHG emissions \r\nin freshwater ecosystems. Global networks such as the Global Lakes \r\nEcological Observatory Network (GLEON) increasingly allow a global \r\nview of carbon fluxes, thereby improving estimates of the contribution \r\nof freshwater ecosystems to global GHG emissions to the atmosphere."


id: a3e55e9e2a13e7d3a9f255036ea9bc0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23346
content:
"In summary for freshwater systems, Drake et  al. (2018) aggregated \r\ncontemporary estimates of CO2 and CH4 emissions from freshwater \r\necosystems with global estimates made by Raymond et al. (2013), and \r\narrived at an estimate of 3.9 PgC yr-1. Rivers and streams accounted \r\nfor 85% and lakes and reservoirs for 15% of the emissions (Raymond \r\net  al., 2013). This trend will continue under scenarios of nutrient \r\nloading to inland waters over the next century where increased CH4\r\nemission of inland water has an atmospheric impact of 1.7-2.6 PgC/\r\nCO2-eq y-1, which is equivalent to 18-33% of annual CO2 emissions \r\nfrom burning fossil fuels (medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(Beaulieu et al., 2019). For comparison, annual uptake of CO2 in land \r\necosystems is estimated as 3.4 (+- 0.9) PgC yr-1 (Friedlingstein et al., \r\n2020). The freshwater numbers combine CO2 and CH4 and are thus not \r\ndirectly comparable"


id: 179ef7a9c96e2b9273024855d4c7101b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1210
content:
" However, they are indicative of the importance \r\nof better accounting for freshwater systems in global carbon budgets."


id: f80c2412c3f09d3945b2cb4895acf1a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36541
content:
"Based on a 10% increase in precipitation, (de Wit et  al., 2016) \r\nestimated an increased mobilisation of organic carbon from soils to \r\nfreshwaters of at least 30%, demonstrating the importance of climate \r\nwetting for the carbon cycle. Browning negatively affects the taste of \r\ndrinking water and this may be difficult to address (Kothawala et al., \r\n2015; Kritzberg et al., 2020). It also often reduces attractiveness for \r\nrecreational purposes, especially swimming (Arthington and Hadwen, \r\n2003; Keeler et  al., 2015). Based on a worst-case climate scenario \r\nuntil 2030, (Weyhenmeyer et al., 2016) projected an increase in the \r\nbrowning of lakes and rivers in boreal Sweden by a factor of 1.3. The \r\nchemical character of DOM, as modified by climate change (Kellerman \r\net al., 2014), determines its amenability to removal by water treatment \r\n(Ritson et al., 2014)"


id: 96f4d48a2721dabd903e6645c025a6c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21266
content:
" Therefore, in order to provide safe and acceptable \r\ndrinking water, more advanced, more expensive and more energy/\r\nresource-intensive technical solutions may be required (Matilainen \r\net al., 2010)."


id: 6ba1af43f1d95e6c55fe8edf2d7e8b6a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14557
content:
"Diminished vegetation cover following wildfires (Section  2.5.3.2) \r\nand tree mortality (Section  2.5.3.3) can reduce long-term water \r\ninfiltration, increase soil erosion and flash floods and release sediment \r\nthat degrades drinking water quality. Widlfires increase impacts of \r\nextreme precipitation events due to climate change, which contribute \r\nto increased surface runoff and hence increased risks of land erosion, \r\nlandslides and flooding (Ebel et  al., 2012; Robinne et  al., 2020). \r\nUnder current conditions, nearly half the global land area is at a \r\nmoderate-to-high risk of water scarcity due to wildfires (Robinne et al., \r\n2018; Robinne et al., 2020). From 1984 to 2014, wildfires in the western \r\nUSA affected 6-11% of stream and river length (Ball et  al., 2021). \r\nUnder a high-emissions scenario of a 3"


id: 3e5de60976d09b86bb3aaecd2c58c84b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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vector_id: 7183
content:
"5degC temperature increase, \r\npost-fire erosion across the western USA could double sedimentation \r\nand degrade drinking water quality in one-third of watersheds by 2050 \r\n(Sankey et al., 2017). In Brazil, post-fire vegetation loss tends to increase \r\nrunoff, reduce infiltration and reduce groundwater recharge and flow \r\nof springs (Rodrigues et al., 2019). Runoff from wildfires can contain \r\nDOC precursors for the formation of carcinogenic trihalomethanes \r\nduring chlorination of water for drinking (Uzun et al., 2020) as well \r\nas chromium, mercury, selenium and other toxic trace metals (Burton \r\net al., 2016; Burton et al., 2019)."


id: c06b6411796a70fb8d3e0224875846cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27835
content:
"Species are the fundamental unit of ecosystems. As species become \r\nrare, their roles in the functioning of the ecosystem diminishes and \r\ndisappears altogether if they become locally extinct (high confidence)\r\n(Isbell et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2018b; van der Plas, 2019; Wang et al., \r\n2021b). Loss of species and functional groups reduces the ability of \r\nan ecosystem to provide services, and lowers its resilience to climate \r\nchange (high confidence) (Section  2.6.7) (Elmqvist et  al., 2003; \r\nCadotte et al., 2011; Harrison et al., 2014; Carlucci et al., 2020). For \r\nexample, among crop systems, a key factor to succesful pollination is \r\nthe phylogenetic diversity of bee species available, more than total \r\nabundances (Drossart and Gerard, 2020). Because many species have \r\nobligate interactions with, or are resources for, other species (e.g"


id: 8e90ebbb69185d4fde7cc24df267f573
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19949
content:
"River banks, riparian vegetation and macrophyte beds play important \r\nroles in erosion control through reducing current velocities, increasing \r\nsedimentation and reducing turbidity (Madsen et al., 2001). Rates of \r\nflow in rivers affect inland navigation (Vari et  al., 2022). Changing \r\nseasonality in snow-dominated basins is expected to enhance \r\nhydropower production in winter but decrease it during summer (Doell \r\net  al., 2015). Glacier melt changes hydrological regimes, sediment \r\ntransport and bio-geochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers \r\nto oceans, profoundly influencing ecosystem services that glacier-fed \r\nrivers provide, particularly the provision of water for agriculture, \r\nhydropower and consumption (Milner et  al., 2017). Loss of glacial \r\nmass and snowpack has already impacted flow rates, quantities and \r\nseasonality (Chapter 4, in this report) (Hock et al., 2019)"


id: 88edfd2143920a76fa3905f857639547
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19083
content:
" Meltwater \r\nyields from glacier ice are likely to increase in many regions during the \r\nnext decades but decrease thereafter, as glaciers become smaller and \r\nsmaller and finally disappear (Hock et al., 2019)."


id: 771b58e32d816ecf55e614c1d6b20d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16308
content:
"Key risks assessed here are interconnected. Extinction of species is an \r\nirreversible impact of climate change and has negative consequences \r\non ecosystem integrity and functioning, and the risks increase steeply \r\nwith even small rises in global temperature (Section 2.5.1.3, Figure 2.6, \r\nFigure  2.7, Figure  2.8). Continued climate change substantially \r\nincreases the risk of carbon losses due to wildfires, tree mortality from \r\ndrought and insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying, permafrost thaw \r\nand changes in the structure of ecosystems; these could exacerbate \r\nself-reinforcing feedbacks between emissions from high-carbon \r\necosystems and increasing global temperatures (medium confidence). \r\nThawing of Arctic permafrost alone could release 11-200 GtC (medium \r\nconfidence). Complex interactions of climate changes, LULCC, carbon \r\ndioxide fluxes and vegetation changes will regulate the future carbon \r\nbalance of the biosphere, processes incompletely represented in ESMs"


id: b4cc1bb2335c872e72fe1eafa95e0122
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25980
content:
" \r\nThe exact timing and magnitude of climate-biosphere feedbacks and \r\nthe potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by broad \r\nranges of the estimates, but studies indicate that increased ecosystem \r\ncarbon losses could cause extreme future temperature increases \r\n(medium confidence). (Sections  2.5.2.7, 2.5.2.8, 2.5.2.9, 2.5.3.2, \r\n2.5.3.3, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5, Figure 2.10, Figure 2.11, Table 2.4, Table 2.5, \r\nTable SM2.2, Table SM2.5)"


id: d5d2fc1ae64f6a9cd32a7f9cc7c21f37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31155
content:
"Among numerous risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from \r\nclimate change, this chapter identified five phenomena as the most \r\nfundamental risks of climate change to ecosystem integrity and the \r\necosystem services that support human well-being that are also \r\nquantified sufficiently to estimate risk thresholds with at least medium \r\nconfidence : Biodiversity loss (global losses of species from ecosystems), \r\necosystem structure change, increased tree mortality, increased wildfire, \r\nand ecosystem carbon losses and (Table 2.5, Table SM2.5; Figure 2.11). \r\nThese key risks form part of the overall assessment of key risks in \r\nChapter 16. The AR5 chapter on terrestrial ecosystems (Settele et al., \r\n2014) had also identified three of these key risks--species extinctions, \r\ntree mortality and ecosystem carbon losses--and a fourth--invasion \r\nby non-native species"


id: e5f8a1a453906d51829f3b8cfe99c77a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33671
content:
" This chapter assesses, in multiple sections, the \r\nimpacts of climate change on invasive species with respect to different \r\nprocesses or systems (e.g., in Section  2.4.2.3.3), and includes this \r\naspect here in a new broader key risk of ecosystem structure change. \r\nThe AR5 included wildfire as a mechanism of the key risk of ecosystem \r\ncarbon loss. Based on additional research and field experience with \r\nmajor wildfires since then, this chapter sets wildfire apart as a specific \r\nkey risk to ecosystem integrity and human well-being. These different "


id: 235c978035d6ca9c8cf98d3bf8ba0dc6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3016
content:
"Table 2.5 |  Key risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from climate change. This IPCC chapter assesses these as the most fundamental risks of climate change to ecosystem \r\nintegrity and the ecosystem services that support human well-being. Climate factors include the primary variables governing the risk. Non-climate factors include other phenomena \r\nthat can dominate or contribute to the risk. Detection and attribution comprise cases of observed changes attributed predominantly, or in part, to climate change, with some \r\ncases being attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Sections 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.4.5, Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table SM2.1). Adaptation includes options to address the risk \r\n(Section 2.6). Risk transitions (defined in Figure 2.11) indicate an approximate GSAT increase, relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), to move from one level of risk to \r\nthe other as well as assessed confidence. Table SM2"


id: c48590d96356dd3f5def2e7b310fe7bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28495
content:
"5 provides details of the temperature levels for risk transitions. Both tables provides details for the key risk burning embers \r\ndiagram (Figure 2.11)."


id: 7f19db1c68ae9568b7c6de6e87f9755d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17547
content:
"Global biodiversity loss: Increasing numbers of plant and animal species at high extinction risk (species becoming endangered with projected loss of >50% of range). The transition from \r\nnon-detectable risk to moderate risk was based on the observed documentation of hundreds of local population extinctions, major declines in many sub-species and two to 92 global species \r\nextinctions that are attributable to climate change (with medium confidence or higher). The transition from moderate risk to high risk of biodiversity loss is centred around 1.5degC, based on a \r\nfew taxa that are known from their basic biology and habitat requirements to be at high risk of extinction (endangered) at 1.5degC, and on the increasing number of taxa that are projected to \r\nhave a high extinction risk affecting >10% of the species in that taxa (1000 times the natural background rates of extinction)"


id: 46af88bca37b9b4358123626ccc507f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8503
content:
" The transition to very high risk of biodiversity loss comes from \r\nthe increasing number of taxa projected to have >20% of species at a high risk of extinction. In the worst-case scenario (10th percentile of the models), some of the taxa show >50% of the \r\nspecies at a high risk of extinction. These assessments are also weighted by role the species in the taxa play in performing ecosystem services (both to the ecosystems and to humans, e.g., \r\npollinators, detritivores). There is high confidence for the moderate risk threshold because it is based on observed trends attributed to climate change. There is medium confidence for future \r\nprojections since, for the purpose of developing this burning embers diagram, these risk thresholds are based on one large study (covering >119,000 species) for which there were multiple \r\nwarming scenarios considered, and primarily on the loss of suitable climate. Based on Sections 2.4.2, 2.5.1, 2.6.1, 2.6.6, Table 2.3, Figure 2.6, Table SM2"


id: 38c52c94e34849b904d546f8618b3a11
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6301
content:
"Ecosystem structure change: increasing risk of large-scale changes in ecosystem structure. Ecosystem structural change with most information derived for tropical forests, boreal forests, \r\nsavannas and tundra for both observations and future projections. The transition from non-detectable risk to moderate risk is based on detected changes attributable to climate change or \r\nto interactions between changing disturbance regime, climate and rising CO2. These changes have already been observed at 0.5degC above pre-industrial levels, with shifts initially detected \r\nin boreal forests, tundra and tropical grassy ecosystems. The transition from moderate risk to high risk is centred around 1.5degC, based on widespread global observations (at a current GSAT \r\nof 1.09degC above pre-industrial levels) that agree with projected future impacts with at least 10% area of key ecosystems being affected (Box 2.1). Overall, there is medium confidence in \r\nprojections"


id: 52b0f83bed132db69b1a7e43f9cd3819
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10468
content:
" This is based on existing observations and some projections that have a high confidence of risk for several ecosystems, but data and projections are not available for all biomes, \r\nthus lowering overall confidence to medium confidence. The transition from high risk to very high risk occurs when >50% of multiple ecosystems are projected to experience shifts in \r\nstructure. (Sections 2.4.2.3, 2.4.3, 2.4.5, 2.5.2, Box 2.1, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.2, Table SM2.3, Table SM2.4, Table SM2.5)"


id: 1caeabf4f34979702d29f114b4482dc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1964
content:
"Tree mortality: tree mortality that exceeds natural levels degrades habitat for plant and animal species, increases carbon emissions and reduces water supplies for people. Anthropogenic \r\nclimate change caused three cases of drought-induced tree mortality in the period 1945-2007 in western North America, the African Sahel and north Africa in temperate and tropical \r\necosystems. Increased pest infestations and wildfires due to climate change also caused much of the recent tree mortality in North America. These changes occurred at GMST increases of \r\n0.3degC-0.9degC above those in the pre-industrial period. Models project increasingly extensive drought-induced tree mortality at continued temperature increases of 1degC-2degC. Models project \r\nrisks of mortality of up to half the forest area in different biomes at temperature increases of 2.5degC-4.5degC"


id: 84ee0a260f9026e5bd3619ae792d9d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18437
content:
" In Amazon rainforests, insufficient plant moisture reserves during drought increase \r\nthe risk of tree mortality, and, combined with increased fire from climate change and deforestation, the risk of a tipping point of massive forest dieback and a biome shift to grassland. \r\n(Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.3.3, 2.5.3.5)"


id: fbc7c6398d4c2964e46a36039f013a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37111
content:
"Wildfire: increasing risk of wildfire that exceeds natural levels, damaging ecosystems, increasing human diseases and deaths and increasing carbon emissions. Field evidence shows that \r\nanthropogenic climate change has increased the area burned by wildfire above natural levels across western North America in the period 1984-2017, increasing burned area up to 11 times \r\nin one extreme year and doubling burned area over natural levels in a 32-year period. Burned area has increased in the Amazon, the Arctic, Australia and parts of Africa and Asia, consistent \r\nwith but not formally attributed to anthropogenic climate change. These changes have occurred at GMST increases of 0.6degC-0.9degC"


id: dae888f07dad9367b640866b8b90133e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31961
content:
" Empirical and dynamic global vegetation models project \r\nincreases in burned area and fire frequency above natural levels on all continents under continued climate change, the emergence of an anthropogenic signal from natural variation in \r\nfire weather for a third of the global area and increases of burned area in regions where fire was previously rare or absent, particularly the Arctic tundra and Amazon rainforest, at global \r\ntemperature increases of 1.5degC-2.5degC. Models project up to a doubling of burned area globally and wildfire-induced conversion of up to half the area of the Amazon rainforest to grassland \r\nat temperature increases of 3degC-4.5degC. (Sections 2.4.4.2, 2.5.3.2)"


id: 1f58d068c7fd94ba120f068643e9260e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2367
content:
"Ecosystem carbon loss: increasing risk of ecosystem carbon losses that could substantially raise the atmospheric carbon dioxide level. Measurements have detected emissions of carbon \r\nfrom boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems in places where increases in wildfire and tree mortality have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, at GMST increases of \r\n0.6degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period. Many factors govern the carbon balance of ecosystems, so changes have not been attributed to climate change. Tropical forests and Arctic \r\npermafrost contain the highest ecosystem stocks of above- and below-ground carbon, respectively. Due to deforestation and forest degradation, primary tropical forests currently emit more \r\ncarbon to the atmosphere than they remove. Wildfires in the Arctic are contributing to permafrost thaw and soil carbon release. An emissions scenario of 2degC increase could thaw ~15% \r\nof permafrost area and emit 20-100 GtC by 2100"


id: 306ba81476b83942f0a3834d94e5ef8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:14
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5049
content:
" Under emissions scenarios of 4degC global temperature increase, models project possible tipping points of conversion of half the Amazon \r\nrainforest to grassland and thawing of Arctic permafrost that could release 11-200 GtC which could substantially exacerbate climate change (Sections 2.4.3, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.7-10, \r\n2.5.3.2-5, Figure 2.9, Figure 2.10, Figure 2.11, Table 2.4, Table 2.5, Table SM2.2, Table SM2.3, Table SM2.5)."


id: 16a3bb0d90dc768eb9eabbf5f5688a97
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"Figure 2.11 |  Key risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from climate change. This IPCC chapter assesses these as fundamental risks of climate change to \r\necosystem integrity and the ecosystem services that support human well-being, based on observed impacts and future risks of: (far-left) \"biodiversity loss\" refers to losses of animal \r\nand plant species from different ecosystems globally, with resulting declines in ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience (Section 2.4.2.1, 2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3.3); (middle-left) \r\n\"structure change\" refers to major changes occurring in ecosystem structure (Sections 2.4.3, Box 2.1, 2.5.2, Figure 2.9, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.5); (middle) \r\n\"tree mortality\" refers to tree mortality exceeding natural levels (2.4.4.3, 2.5.3.3); (middle- right) \"wildfire increase\" refers to wildfire exceeding natural levels (Section 2.4.4.2, \r\n2.5.3"


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"2); (far-right) \"carbon loss\" refers to ecosystem carbon losses that could occur abruptly and substantially raise atmospheric carbon dioxide (Sections 2.4.3.6-2.4.3.9, 2.4.4.4, \r\n2.5.2.6-2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5). This burning embers diagram shows impacts and risks in relation to changes in GSAT, relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Risk \r\nlevels reflect current levels of adaptation and do not include more interventions that could lower risk. The compound effects of climate change, combined with deforestation, \r\nagricultural expansion and urbanisation as well as air, water and soil pollution and other non-climate hazards could increase risks. Tables 2.5 and SM2.5 provide details of the key \r\nrisks and temperature levels for the risk transitions."


id: 518a374c05eb0a2aff3f3e77e2b8ff80
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"Human health and well-being are highly dependent on the 'health' of nature. Biodiversity--the variety of genes, \r\nspecies, communities and ecosystems--provides services that are essential for human health and productive \r\nlivelihoods, such as breathable air, drinkable water, productive oceans and fertile soils for growing food and fuels. \r\nNatural ecosystems also help store carbon and regulate climate, floods, disease, pollution and water quality. The \r\nloss of species, leading to reduced biodiversity, has direct and measurable negative effects on all of these essential \r\nservices, and therefore on humankind. A recent demonstration of this is the decline of pollinator species, with \r\npotential negative effects on crop pollination, a fundamental ecosystem function crucial for agriculture"


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" The loss of \r\nwild relatives of the domesticated varieties that humans rely on for agriculture reduces the genetic variability that \r\nmay be needed to support the adaptation of crops to future environmental and social challenges."


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"Most of this section therefore focusses on human interventions to \r\nbuild the resilience of ecosystems, enable species to survive or to \r\nadjust management to climate change. Vulnerability is, in many cases, \r\nexacerbated by the degraded state of many ecosystems as a result of \r\nhuman exploitation and LUC, leading to the fragmentation of habitats, \r\nthe loss of species and impaired ecosystem function. This interaction \r\nbetween climate change and environmental degradation means \r\nthat protecting ecosystems in a natural or near-natural state will be \r\nan important pre-requisite for maintaining resilience and give many \r\nspecies the best chance of persisting in a changed climate (Belote \r\net al., 2017; Arneth et al., 2020; Ferrier et al., 2020; Franca et al., 2020). \r\nProtection from degradation, deforestation and exploitation is also \r\nessential to maintain critical ecosystem services, including carbon \r\nstorage and sequestration and water supply (Dinerstein et al"


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"services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to \r\nadapt to climate change (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological \r\nDiversity, 2020). EbA aims to maintain and increase the resilience and \r\nreduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of the \r\nadverse effects of climate change (Vignola et al., 2009). NbS is a broader \r\nterm which is not restricted to climate change, and is also often used to \r\nrefer to climate change mitigation; it has been defined by the IUCN as \r\n'Actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified \r\necosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, \r\nsimultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits' \r\n(Cohen-Shacham et al., 2016). This widely accepted definition excludes \r\nactions which use the natural environment to solve human problems \r\nbut do not provide benefits for biodiversity, and is closely linked to the \r\nconcept of the Ecosystem Approach"


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" NbS is not a universally accepted \r\nterm, but it is being increasingly used in the scientific literature. It is a \r\nconcept which recognises the importance of biodiversity in ecosystem \r\nservice provision, and offers the opportunity to address climate change \r\nand loss of biodiversity together in an efficient integrated way (Chong, \r\n2014; Seddon et al., 2020a; Ortiz et al., 2021). Given that the focus of \r\nthis chapter is on adaptation, we primarily use the term EbA as it is \r\nmore specific, but we do so understanding that it can be regarded as a \r\nsubset of NbS. The wider concept of NbS for climate change adaptation \r\nand mitigation is covered in a cross-chapter box on the topic (see \r\nCross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter)."


id: aa758ed6e8b4b86d42d7608f0ba7f3e
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"that it does not already inhabit. It is very improbable that evolutionary \r\nresponses would be sufficient to prevent species extinctions in the case \r\nof that species losing its climate space entirely on a regional or global \r\nscale (section 2.4.2.8) (Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). At the highest \r\nrisk are the world's most cold-adapted species (whose habitats are \r\nrestricted to polar and high mountain-top areas). Examples include the \r\npolar bear (Regehr et al., 2016), 'sky-island' plants in the Tropics (Kidane \r\net  al., 2019), mountain-top amphibians in Spain (Enriquez-Urzelai \r\net al., 2019), mountain-top lichens in the Appalachians (USA) (Allen \r\nand Lendemer, 2016) and silverswords in Hawaii (Krushelnycky et al., \r\n2013)"


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" However, there is potential for using evolutionary changes \r\nto enhance the adaptive capacity of target species, as is being done \r\non the Great Barrier Reef by translocating symbionts and corals that \r\nhave survived recent intense heat-induced bleaching events into areas \r\nthat have had large die-off (Rinkevich, 2019). Multiple studies have \r\nassessed when and how evolution might be able to help wild species \r\nadapt to climate change (Ratnam et al., 2011; Sgro et al., 2011)."


id: c0d08c477c2bf7af2e97083c4d7e9f29
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"There are a variety of mechanisms which promote the resilience of \r\necosystems through persistence, recovery and reorganisation (Falk \r\net al., 2019). Changes in the balance of different plant species within \r\na community can maintain the persistence of the community itself, \r\nmaintaining its value as a habitat for other species and providing \r\necosystem services. In some cases, there are negative feedback \r\nmechanisms between biological and physical processes; for example, \r\nin peatlands, lowered water tables resulting from drier conditions \r\ncan lead to reduced permeability of peat, increasing rates of water \r\nloss (Page and Baird, 2016). There are limits to this resilience and the \r\nconcept of tipping points beyond which ecosystems change state, and \r\nreturning to the original state has been subject of much recent research \r\n(van Nes et al., 2016)"


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" There is clear evidence that the degradation of \r\necosystems has reduced their resilience and that restoration can help \r\nto reduce risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services, discussed below \r\n(see Section  2.6.2, 2.6.3). However, as the rate of climate change \r\nincreases, the limits of this approach will start to be reached, and "


id: c0efd8f0ecf64b3b333f29285653cbe4
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"A variety of approaches have been identified as potential adaptation \r\nmeasures which people can take to reduce the risks of climate change \r\nto biodiversity. (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009 ), quoted in AR5, identified \r\n113 categories of recommendation for adaptation from a survey of \r\n112 papers and reports. Since then, the literature has expanded with \r\nthousands of relevant publications. Whilst there is increasing interest in \r\nadaptation for biodiversity conservation and a wide range of plans and \r\nstrategies, there is less evidence of these plans being implemented. \r\nSince AR5, a number of studies, predominantly from Europe and North \r\nAmerica, have investigated the extent to which adaptation has been \r\nintegrated into conservation planning and is being implemented on a \r\nlocal and regional scale (Macgregor and van Dijk, 2014; Delach et al., \r\n2019; Prober et al., 2019; Clifford et al., 2020; Barr et al., 2021; Duffield \r\net al., 2021)"


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" A common pattern in these studies is that vulnerability \r\nhas been assessed and potential adaptation actions identified, but \r\nimplementation has been limited beyond actions to improve ecological \r\nconditions which may increase resilience on a local scale."


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"Protecting and restoring natural processes is a general principle for \r\nmaintaining and building resilience to climate change for biodiversity \r\n(Timpane-Padgham et  al., 2017). One element of this is ensuring \r\nnaturally functioning hydrology for wetlands and river systems \r\n(Table 2.6), which is particularly important in a context of changing \r\nrainfall patterns and increased evapotranspiration. An important \r\ndevelopment in approaches to conservation over recent decades has \r\nbeen the concept of re-wilding (Schulte To Buhne et  al., 2021); this \r\nencompasses a number of elements of restoring natural processes, \r\nincluding the reintroduction of top predators, larger conservation \r\nareas, and less prescriptive outcomes than many previous conservation \r\nmeasures"


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" There are elements of re-wilding which may well contribute \r\nto building resilience to climate change, but it will be increasingly \r\nimportant to factor climate change adaptation into the planning of \r\nre-wilding schemes (Carroll and Noss, 2021)."


id: 70aa7bcfe3dd258f82b3573481ed98be
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"The most consistently cited climate change adaptation measure for \r\nspecies is increasing connectivity to facilitate the colonisation of new \r\nareas. This reflects the fact that many species' habitats are highly \r\nfragmented in areas with more intensive land management, which \r\nprevents them naturally changing their range to track changing \r\nclimatic conditions. Advances and innovations in modelling techniques \r\ncan support decision-making about connectivity (Littlefield et  al., \r\n2019). There is evidence from empirical and modelling studies that \r\nspecies can disperse more effectively in better-connected areas in \r\nterrestrial habitats (Keeley et al., 2018). The issues are different in more \r\nnatural landscapes--species may still be threatened in intrinsically \r\nisolated habitats, such as mountain tops, but connectivity cannot \r\nbe created here in the same way"


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" Evidence suggests that increased \r\nconnectivity will only benefit a subset of species, probably those \r\nwhich are intermediate-habitat specialists that are able to disperse \r\n(Pearce-Higgins and Green, 2014). Generalists do not require corridors \r\nor stepping stones, while many corridors or stepping stones will not be \r\nof sufficient quality to be used by most habitat specialists. There should \r\nalso be a caveat to the general principle that increasing connectivity is \r\na benefit for climate change adaptation. It can increase the spread of \r\ninvasive, pest and disease-causing species into newly suitable regions. \r\nIn some places, isolated refugia may better allow vulnerable species \r\nand biological communities to survive."


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"Although direct assessments of the effectiveness of adaptation actions \r\nare rare, since AR5, there have been an increasing number of empirical \r\nanalyses of how different land use and management can influence the \r\nvulnerability of species and habitats. As climate change often interacts \r\nwith other factors including ecosystem degradation and fragmentation \r\n(Oliver et al., 2015a), actions to address these other interacting factors \r\nis expected to build resilience to climate change. Table 2.6 summarises \r\nevidence that supports the main categories of proposed adaptation \r\nmeasures. We have taken an inclusive approach and included studies \r\nthat address extreme weather events such as droughts, which may \r\nbe exacerbated by climate change, as well as long-term changes in \r\nclimate variables"


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" We have not distinguished between studies in \r\nwhich climate change adaptation was an explicit focus and those in \r\nwhich lessons for adaptation can be learnt, that is, when studies were \r\nconducted for other reasons but inform the assessment of the impacts \r\nof actions identified as potential adaptation measures."


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"There are many different approaches to increasing connectivity, \r\nranging from increasing the overall area of suitable habitat to \r\n'corridors' and 'stepping stones', with different strategies likely to \r\nbe more effective for different species and circumstances (Keeley \r\net  al., 2018). Connectivity can also be important in increasing \r\nthe resilience of populations to extreme climatic events (Newson \r\net  al., 2014; Oliver et  al., 2015b). Within freshwater environments, \r\nthe connectivity of watercourses is essential. Fluvial corridors are \r\nnecessary to ensure the survival of migrating fish populations, even \r\nwithout climate change; with climate change, connectivity becomes \r\ncrucial for relatively cold-adapted organisms to migrate upstream to \r\ncolder areas. Connectivity is also important for the larvae of benthic \r\ninvertebrates to be able to drift downstream and hence to disperse \r\n(Brooks et  al"


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", 2018); for adult benthic invertebrates, riparian and \r\nterrestrial habitat features can potentially affect dispersal. Connectivity \r\nwithin river and wetland systems for some species can also mediated \r\nby more mobile animal species such as fish and birds (Martin-Velez \r\net al., 2020). Which factors are the most important in either promoting \r\ntheir colonisation of new sites or persisting in situ will differ between \r\nspecies and locations. Some general principles have been recognised \r\nand can guide conservation policy and practice (Natural England and \r\nRSPB, 2020; Stralberg et al., 2020), but this will often require additional \r\ninvestigation and planning based on an individual understanding of \r\nthe niches of specific species."


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"Protected areas--areas of land set aside for species and habitat \r\nprotection with legal protection from development or exploitation--\r\nhave been a cornerstone of nature conservation for many years. Their \r\neffectiveness under a changing climate has been the subject of debate \r\nand investigation. There is now a large body of evidence demonstrating \r\nthat colonisations by range-shifting species are more likely to occur at \r\nprotected sites than at non-protected sites for a wide range of taxa \r\n(e.g., Thomas et  al., 2012; Gillingham et  al., 2015) including across \r\ncontinents (Pavon-Jordan et  al., 2020). This is probably because, \r\nby protecting large areas of natural and semi-natural habitats, they \r\nprovide suitable places for colonising species (Hiley et al., 2013) which \r\nmay not be available in the surrounding landscape. Although the \r\nevidence for protected areas being associated with reduced extinctions \r\nis weaker, the finding by Gillingham et  al. (Gillingham et  al"


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", 2015) \r\nthat protected sites were associated with reduced extinction rates at \r\nlow latitudes and elevations is strongly suggestive that they can help \r\nspecies' persistence in the face of climate change."


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"The evidence that species can persist in microclimatic refugia where \r\nsuitable conditions for them are maintained locally (e.g., because \r\nof variations in topography) has increased in recent years. This has \r\nopened up the potential to include refugia in conservation plans \r\nand strategies to facilitate the local survival of species (Jones et al., \r\n2016; Morelli et al., 2016; Morelli et al., 2020), for example, targeting \r\nmanagement actions (Sweet et  al., 2019) aimed at supporting \r\npopulations of species. This is likely to become an important aspect \r\nof climate change adaptation for biodiversity conservation in future. It \r\nis also possible to manipulate microclimate, for example, by creating \r\nshelters for birds' nests; see Case Study in 2.6.5.5 of African penguins; \r\n(Patino-Martinez et  al., 2012). One specific approach of this sort \r\nis the planting or retention of trees and wooded corridors to shade \r\nwatercourses (Thomas et al., 2016)"


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" Riparian shading can also possibly \r\nhelp to reduce phytoplankton and benthic diatom growth in smaller \r\nstreams and rivers (Halliday et al., 2016)."


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"It is intrinsically difficult to assess the effectiveness of climate change \r\nadaptation measures, the benefit of which will be realised in the years \r\nand decades ahead (Morecroft et al., 2019). Nevertheless, taking into \r\naccount the wide range of evidence reported above, including the \r\ntheory, modelling and observations of the impacts of climate change \r\nin contrasting circumstances, it is possible to make an overarching \r\nassessment that appropriate adaptation measures can reduce the \r\nvulnerability of many aspects of biodiversity to climate change \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement). It is also clear, however, that to \r\nbe most effective and avoid unintended consequences, measures \r\nneed to be carefully implemented by taking into account specific local \r\ncircumstances (robust evidence, high agreement) and include the \r\nmanagement of inevitable changes (robust evidence, high agreement)"


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" \r\nIt is also clear that while there are now many plans and strategies for \r\nadapting biodiversity conservation to climate change, many have yet \r\nto be implemented fully (medium evidence, high agreement)."


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"Restoring coasts, rivers and wetlands to reduce flood risk have probably \r\nseen the largest investment in EbA and it is becoming an increasingly \r\naccepted approach in some places (e.g., case studies in Sections 2.6.5.2, \r\n2.6.5.7), although significant social, economic and technical barriers \r\nremain (Wells et al., 2020; Bark et al., 2021; Hagedoorn et al., 2021). \r\nNatural flood management (NFM) encompasses a wide range of \r\ntechniques in river systems and at the coast and has been used in \r\nvaried locations around the world. In tropical and subtropical areas, \r\nthe restoration of mangroves to reduce the risk of coastal flooding \r\nis a widely advocated, evidence-based approach (e.g., (Hoye et  al., \r\n2013; Sierra-Correa and Kintz, 2015; Powell et al., 2019)). In temperate \r\nregions, salt marsh is a similarly important habitat (Spalding et  al., \r\n2014). Both provide buffering against SLR and storm surges"


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" Managed \r\nrealignment of the coast, by creating new habitats, can lead to a loss \r\nof terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but it can protect them and \r\nthe services they provide by reducing the risks of catastrophic failure \r\nfrom hard-engineered sea defences."


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"EbA includes a range of different approaches. Examples include \r\nrestoring coastal and river systems to reduce flood risk and improve \r\nwater quality, and the creation of natural areas within urban areas to \r\nreduce temperatures through shading and evaporative cooling. EbA \r\nis closely linked with a variety of other concepts such as ecosystem \r\nservices, natural capital and disaster risk reduction (DRR). EbA \r\nwas becoming a well-recognised concept at the time of AR5 but \r\nimplementation was still at an early stage in many cases. Since then, \r\npilot studies have been assessed and EbA projects have been initiated \r\naround the world. The evidence base continues to grow (Table 2.7), \r\nand this has led to increasing confidence in approaches which have \r\nbeen shown to work leading to further expansion in some countries \r\n(Table 2.7). However, this is not uniform and there is relatively little \r\nsynthesis across disciplines and regions (Seddon et  al., 2020a). \r\nChausson et  al"


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" (2020) used a systematic mapping methodology to \r\ncharacterise 386 published studies. They found that interventions \r\nin natural or semi-natural ecosystems ameliorated adverse climate \r\nchange impacts in 66% of cases, with fewer trade-offs than for more \r\nartificial systems such as plantation forest. However, the evidence base \r\nhas substantial gaps. Most of the evidence has been collected in the \r\nGlobal North, and there is a lack of robust, site-specific investigations \r\ninto the effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and \r\nmore holistic appraisals that account for broader social and ecological \r\noutcomes."


id: e1a6c20a926237bd3cf9f1c5fd64d749
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 32995
content:
"In river systems (Iacob et al., 2014), management of both the catchments \r\nand the channel itself is important: restoring natural meanders in \r\ncanalised watercourses and allowing the build-up of woody debris \r\ncan slow flows rates; restoring upstream wetlands or creating them \r\nin urban and peri-urban situations can store water during flood events \r\nif they are in the right place in a catchment (Acreman and Holden, \r\n2013; Ameli and Creed, 2019; Wu et al., 2020). There is less data on \r\nthe potential for NFM in tropical compared to temperate catchments. \r\nHowever, (Ogden et al., 2013) showed that flooding was reduced from \r\na secondary forested catchment area compared to those which were \r\npasture or a mosaic of forest, pasture and subsistence agriculture. EbA \r\napproaches to reduce flooding can be applied within urban areas as \r\nwell as in rural catchments, as in Durban, South Africa (Section 2.6.5"


id: 68430771a535ee822a2232c3182489ec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13991
content:
"7), \r\nbut effectiveness will depend on EbA being implemented at a sufficient \r\nscale and in the right locations (Hobbie and Grimm, 2020; Costa et al., \r\n2021). This may, in turn, provide protection to downstream urban \r\ncommunities."


id: 9d77956ebcf6c02eeb3afed24f37b2d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22305
content:
"EbA can operate on a range of different scales, from local to catchment \r\nto region. On the local scale, there is a variety of circumstances in \r\nwhich microclimates can be managed and local temperatures lowered \r\nby the presence of vegetation (Table 2.7), and these EbA techniques are \r\nnow being used more widely. In both urban and agricultural situations, \r\nshade trees are a traditional technique which can be applied to \r\ncontemporary climate change adaptation. As reported in Section 2.6.2 \r\nabove, shading of watercourses can lower temperatures, which can \r\nallow species to survive locally; as well as supporting diversity, it can \r\nhelp to maintain important fisheries, including those of salmonid fish \r\n(O'Briain et al., 2020). Within cities, green spaces, including parks, local \r\nnature reserves and green roofs and walls can also provide cooling as \r\na result of evapotranspiration (Bowler et al., 2010a; Aram et al"


id: 3ddf03f9629d272e9a5255226e3818a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7093
content:
"Whilst policy interest is growing and there is an increasing deployment \r\nof EbA, there is still a long way to go in delivering its full potential \r\n(Huq and Stubbings, 2015) and significant institutional and cultural \r\nbarriers remain (Huq et al., 2017; Nalau et al., 2018). Nevertheless, it is \r\nincreasingly clear that EbA can offer a portfolio of effective measures \r\nto reduce the risks for people of climate change at the same time as \r\nbenefitting biodiversity (robust evidence, high agreement), providing \r\nthat such measures are deployed with careful planning in a way \r\nthat is appropriate for local ecological and societal contexts (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement). This chapter has identified risks to species, \r\ncommunities, ecosystems and ecosystem services from climate change, \r\nall of which increase with each increment of Global Warming Level \r\n(2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, 2.5.4)"


id: e4ca46f2e0760f0b383490f583d6628d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33472
content:
" There is therefore a risk to Ecosystem-based \r\nAdaptation measures in some circumstances and this risk increases \r\nprogressively above 1.5degC of warming."


id: c5b349188a439f1718c1b5edadcc9f15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28684
content:
"Low-probability events can have a very high impact (e.g., the \r\ntransmission of SARS-CoV-2 from wild animals to humans, causing \r\nthe Covid-19 pandemic ). A robust disease risk reduction policy would \r\ninclude utilising One Biosecurity (Meyerson and Reaser, 2002; Hulme, \r\n2020; MacLeod and Spence, 2020) or One Health (Monath et  al., \r\n2010; Deem et al., 2018; Destoumieux-Garzon et al., 2018; Zinsstag \r\net  al., 2018) approaches with actions to reduce disease risk across \r\nmultiple sectors and from a variety of anthropogenic drivers, including \r\nclimate change, even if there is high uncertainty in projected risk \r\n(see Cross-Chapter Boxes ILLNESS in this chapter, COVID in Chapter \r\n7 and DEEP in Chapter 17). Kraemer et al. (2019) found that vector \r\nimportation was a key risk factor and that the focus should be on \r\npreventing the introduction of invasive species"


id: 53a760202b153b5af38f706e2cbc5d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10630
content:
" Furthermore, many \r\nneglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are also VBDs, and the UN SDG of \r\ngood health and well-being explicitly calls for increased control and \r\nintervention with a focus on emergency preparedness and response \r\n(Stensgaard et al., 2019a)."


id: 7950a0983a3dbe3cbd20f701c0806c43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16653
content:
"Climate change is altering the life cycles of many pathogenic organisms and changing the risk of transmission of vector- and water-borne \r\ninfectious diseases to humans (high confidence). The rearrangement and emergence of some diseases are already observed in temperate\u0002zone and high-elevation areas and coastal areas (medium confidence to high confidence, depending upon region). Shifts in the geographic \r\nand seasonal range suitability of pathogens and vectors are related to climatic-impact drivers (warming, extreme events, precipitation \r\nand humidity) (very high confidence), but there are substantial non-climatic drivers (LUC, wildlife exploitation, habitat degradation, public \r\nhealth and socioeconomic conditions) that affect the attribution of the overall impacts on the prevalence or severity of some vector- and \r\nwater-borne infectious diseases over recent decades (high confidence)"


id: 833459052a22e453f8f4070166ac77e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18169
content:
" Adaptation options that involve sustained and rapid surveillance \r\nsystems as well as the preservation and restoration of natural habitats with their associated higher levels of biodiversity, both marine and \r\nterrestrial, will be key to reducing the risk of epidemics and the large-scale transmission of diseases (medium confidence)."


id: db4ad4255e83ff4c4721004e0d384bd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32009
content:
"Since AR5, further evidence is showing that climate-related changes in the geographic and seasonal range suitability of pathogens \r\nand vectors and the prevalence or new emergence of vector- and water-borne infectious diseases have continued across many regions \r\nworldwide and are sustained over decadal timescales (low confidence to high confidence, depending upon region)(Sections 2.4.2.5, \r\n3.5.5.3, 7.2, 7.3, 9.10.1.2.1) (Harvell et al., 2009; Garrett et al., 2013; Burge et al., 2014; Guzman and Harris, 2015; Baker-Austin et al., \r\n2018; Watts et al., 2019; Semenza, 2020; Watts et al., 2021). Ecosystem-mediated infectious diseases at risk of increase from climate \r\nchange include water-borne diseases associated with pathogenic Vibrio spp. (e.g., those causing cholera and vibriosis) and harmful algal \r\nblooms (e.g., ciguatera fish poisoning) (Sections 3.5, 5.12, Table SM3.3) (Bindoff et al., 2019); (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Levy, 2015; Trtanj \r\net al., 2016; Ebi et al"


id: a6c9108976275bb4f7a38aef230e658f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23757
content:
", 2017; Mantzouki et al., 2018; Nichols et al., 2018), and VBDs associated with arthropods (e.g., malaria, dengue, \r\nchikungunya, Zika virus, West Nile virus and Lyme disease), helminths (e.g., schistosomiasis) and zoonotic diseases associated with cattle \r\nand wildlife (e.g., leptospirosis) (low confidence to very high confidence, depending upon disease and region) (Sections 2.4.2.7, 3.5, 7.2, \r\n7.3, 9.10.1.1.1, 13.7.1.2, 14.4.6, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7; Table Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.1) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r\n2018; Ebi et al., 2021)."


id: 6878cbf48f87348e45389bc0a88a9ef4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14027
content:
"The attribution of observed changes in disease incidence, partly or fully, to climatic-impact drivers remains challenging because of the \r\ndifficulty of accurately capturing the contributions of multiple, interacting and often nonlinear underlying responses of host, pathogen and \r\nvector, which can be influenced further by non-climate stressors and the long history of anthropogenic disturbance. Disease emergence \r\nin new areas requires independent drivers to coincide (i.e., increasing climate suitability for pathogen or vector survival and competence/\r\ncapacity, and introduction of the pathogen, that is often via the mobility of human populations). Furthermore, the extent to which \r\nchanges in ecosystem-mediated diseases impact human health is highly dependent on local socioeconomic status, sanitation, medical \r\nsystems and practices (Section 2.4.2.5, Figure FAQ2.3.1) (Gething et al., 2010; Lindgren et al., 2012; Mordecai et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson \r\net al., 2014; Bhatt et al"


id: 15da0c8f2efdda7691785a2832e35003
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 960
content:
", 2015; Morin et al., 2015; Ryan et al., 2015; Wesolowski et al., 2015; Stanaway et al., 2016; Yamana et al., 2016; \r\nMordecai et al., 2017; Tesla et al., 2018; Ryan et al., 2019; Shah et al., 2019; Iwamura et al., 2020; Mordecai et al., 2020; Colon-Gonzalez \r\net al., 2021; Ryan et al., 2021).Thus, risk reduction is more effective when links between climate change, ecosystem change, health and \r\nadaptation are considered concurrently (Sections 2.4, 3.5.3, 7.2, 7.3, 4.3.3, 6.2.2.3, Table SM2.1)."


id: 17462957bfd88dec8629599fe1af2b23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1170
content:
"Table Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.1 |  Observed climate change impacts on cholera, dengue and malaria incidence. (1) Cholera: endemicity based on (Ali et al., 2015). \r\nChanges (2003-2018) in suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae estimated from model observations driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (CHL) \r\nconcentration (Escobar et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2019); vulnerabilities based on Sigudu et al. (2015) Agtini et al. (2005) and Sack et al. (2003). (2) Dengue: endemicity \r\nbased on Guzman and Harris (2015). (3) Malaria: endemicity based on Phillips et al. (2017) and the WHO Global Malaria Programme. Impacts of climate change on \r\ndiseases and their vectors are most evident at the margins of current distributions"


id: 816c8e7b38d3fa4c683d43f999f1a27d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17891
content:
" However, it is difficult to implicate climate change in areas with extensive existing \r\ntransmission and vector/pathogen abundance, and it is particularly difficult to distinguish from concurrent directional trends in disease control, changes in land use, water \r\naccess, socioeconomic and public health conditions. As a result, while many studies indicate increasing climate suitability of some areas for cholera, and changes in disease \r\nincidence for dengue and malaria, the degree to which these changes can be attributed to climate change remains challenging. Uncertainty statements for malaria and \r\ndengue reflect the degree to which observed trends in disease incidence can be related to observed climate change in the given region. For cholera, confidence statements \r\nreflect the degree to which observed trends in disease or pathogen incidence and coastal area suitability for outbreaks can be linked to observed climate change drivers in \r\nthe given region"


id: ec38128d46f3426fb8226f246174bc73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 34659
content:
" Acronyms: ONI (Oceanic Nino Index), Tmin (minimum temperature), SPI (Standardised Precipitation Index), LST (land surface temperature). Full references \r\nfor this table can be found in Table SM2.6."


id: 43e3967e0a1c846fd3663907b4b6d387
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8091
content:
"The poleward expansion of the distribution of Vibrio spp. has increased the risk of vibriosis outbreaks from multiple species in northern \r\nlatitudes. Specifically, the coastal area suitable for Vibrio infections in the past 5 years has increased by 50.6% compared with a 1980s \r\nbaseline at latitudes of 40degN-70degN; in the Baltic region, the highest-risk season has been extended by 6.5 weeks over the same periods \r\n(Watts et al., 2021). Already, studies have noted greater numbers of Vibrio-related human infections and, most notably, disease outbreaks \r\nlinked to extreme weather events such as heat waves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Baker\u0002Austin et al., 2017; Baker-Austin et al., 2018) (high confidence). By the end of the 21st century, under RCP6.0, the number of months of \r\nrisk of Vibrio illness is projected to increase in Chesapeake Bay by 10.4 +- 2"


id: 4888046b0ccf54cd85944a52c05d4397
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
"4%, with largest increases during May and September, which \r\nare the months of strong recreational and occupational use, compared to a 1985-2000 baseline (Jacobs et al., 2015; Davis et al., 2019a). \r\nIn the Gulf of Alaska, the coastal area suitable for Vibrio spp. is projected to increase on average by 58 +- 17.2% in summer under RCP6.0 \r\nby the 2090s, compared to a 1971-2000 baseline (low to medium confidence) (Jacobs et al., 2015)."


id: e44afdd3cef84b12ae90222bda8f4158
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33394
content:
"On land, increased global connectivity and mobility, unsustainable exploitation of wild areas and species and land conversion (agricultural \r\nexpansion, intensification of farming, deforestation and infrastructure development), together with climate change-driven range shifts \r\nof species and human migration (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5), have modified the interfaces between people \r\nand natural systems (IPBES, 2018a). Climate-driven increase in temperature, the frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as \r\nchanges in precipitation and relative humidity have provided opportunities for rearrangements of disease geography and seasonality, \r\nand emergence into new areas (high confidence) (Section 2.4.2.7). In particular, malaria has expanded into higher elevations in recent \r\ndecades and, although attributing this to climate change remains challenging (Hay et  al., 2002; Pascual et  al., 2006; Alonso et  al., \r\n2011; Campbell et al"


id: 74527010903805e86b4be048ecc6e5c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15898
content:
", 2019c), evidence that the elevational distribution of malaria has tracked warmer temperatures is compelling for \r\nsome regions (Siraj et al., 2014). Models based on both empirical relationships between temperature and the Anopheles mosquito and \r\nPlasmodium parasite traits that drive transmission (Mordecai et al., 2013; Yamana and Eltahir, 2013; Johnson et al., 2015) and existing \r\nmosquito distributions (Peterson, 2009) predict that warming will increase the risk of malaria in highland East Africa and Southern Africa, \r\nwhile decreasing the risk in some lowland areas of Africa, as temperatures exceed the thermal optimum and upper thermal limit for \r\ntransmission (Peterson, 2009; Yamana and Eltahir, 2013; Ryan et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2021)."


id: f21ade66644c186eb39a98e2b62323d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35619
content:
"During the 21st century, public health adaptation measures (Figure Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.2) have been put in place in attempts \r\nto control or eradicate a variety of infectious diseases by improving surveillance and early detection systems; constraining pathogen, \r\nvector, and/or reservoir host distributions and abundances; reducing the likelihood of transmission to humans; and improving treatment \r\nand vaccination programmes and strategies (robust evidence, high agreement) (Chinain et al., 2014; Adrian et al., 2016; Friedman et al., \r\n2017; Konrad et  al., 2017; Semenza et  al., 2017; Borbor-Cordova et  al., 2018; Rocklov and Dubrow, 2020)"


id: 7e3449c72ca55974a28365b75ce9f03c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17420
content:
" In addition, the effective \r\nmanagement and treatment of domestic and waste-water effluent, through better infrastructure and preservation of aquatic systems \r\nacting as natural water purifiers, have been key to securing the integrity of the surrounding water bodies, such as groundwater, reservoirs \r\nand lakes, and agricultural watersheds as well as protecting public health (high confidence) (Okeyo et al., 2018; Guerrero-Latorre et al., \r\n2020; Kitajima et al., 2020; Sunkari et al., 2021). The preservation and restoration of natural ecosystems, with their associated higher levels \r\nof biodiversity, have been reported as significant buffers against epidemics and large-scale pathogen transmission (medium confidence) \r\n(Johnson and Thieltges, 2010; Ostfeld and Keesing, 2017; Keesing and Ostfeld, 2021)"


id: 4c68601ee67e2d23cb33cf4dd669e886
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9447
content:
" Furthermore, the timely allocation of financial \r\nresources and sufficient political will in support of a 'One Health' scientific research approach, recognising the health of humans, animals \r\nand ecosystems as interconnected (Rubin et al., 2014; Whitmee et al., 2015; Zinsstag et al., 2018), holds potential for improving surveillance \r\nand prevention strategies that may help to reduce the risks of further spread and new emergence of pathogens and vectors (medium \r\nconfidence) (Destoumieux-Garzon et al., 2018; Hockings et al., 2020; Volpato et al., 2020; Hopkins et al., 2021; Portner et al., 2021)."


id: 6a60f27ea4d86418c5c6bfe23276e1d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14338
content:
"Adaptation can take place on a range of scales, with specific projects \r\nnested within overarching national strategies. Small-scale projects \r\ncan be adaptation-focused, but on the larger scale, adaptation is \r\noften integrated with wider objectives. Within an urban or peri-urban \r\ncontext, the benefits of natural and semi-natural areas for health \r\nand well-being help to justify support for EbA. Economic well-being \r\nis also an important factor in many cases whether, as in Durban, \r\nSouth Africa (Section  2.6.5.7), it provides new job opportunities \r\nor, as in the Andes (Section  2.6.5.4), it supports long-established \r\nagricultural practices. Action on the ground often depends on factors \r\non a range of scales, for example, a local plan, a national strategy \r\nand international funding. In Durban, partnerships between local \r\ncommunities, local authorities and the academic community were \r\nessential, together with an international context"


id: 6e780f8956e090122aee5e57bf52595b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 15007
content:
" Nevertheless, there \r\nare examples of communities using traditional or local knowledge (LK) \r\nto adapt to changing circumstances, with little or no external input, \r\n(Section 2.6.5.4); Their scope for adaptation is, however, often limited \r\nby factors beyond their direct control."


id: 63f66bbc55b7722c52842b26f12d0c9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 13295
content:
"Specific interventions to protect species from climate change, such \r\nas the case of African penguins in South Africa (Section 2.6.5.5) and \r\nthreatened plant species in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage \r\nArea (Section 2.6.5.8), are rare. However, in countries where nature \r\nreserves are actively managed or where ecosystem restoration projects \r\nare progressing, local practitioners may use their knowledge to adapt \r\nto weather conditions and their associated effects (e.g., fire and water \r\nshortages). This is good practice, but it may not be sufficient to address \r\nthe likely future changes in climate (Duffield et  al., 2021). Training \r\nand resources to support conservation practitioners are becoming \r\navailable. Examples include the Climate Change Adaptation Manual \r\nin England, UK (Section 2.6.5.2), and The Alliance for Freshwater Life \r\n(https://allianceforfreshwaterlife.org) which provides expertise for the \r\nsustainable management of freshwater biodiversity (Darwall et  al"


id: 4538f6c16787fb52204afac29905723
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8319
content:
"Threats to biodiversity from climate change in England include range \r\nretractions of cold-adapted species and the effects of more frequent \r\nextreme weather events such as drought. These threats are exacerbated \r\nby land use and management, for example, fragmenting habitats, \r\ndraining land and straightening rivers. There are also risks to people, \r\nwhich are exacerbated by environmental factors, including flooding \r\nand over-heating in urban areas. The National Adaptation Programme \r\nprovides a broad policy framework for England and includes a chapter \r\non the natural environment. There are also adaptation plans produced \r\nby public bodies such as Natural England and the UK Environment \r\nAgency, with a wide range of responsibilities including flood defence. \r\nThe principles of adaptation to climate change are well established in \r\nthe UK conservation community and resources are available"


id: f392fa423915a6141bcae601f44096b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35835
content:
" Natural \r\nEngland has published a Climate Change Adaptation Manual jointly \r\nwith the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (a major conservation \r\nNGO) (Natural England and RSPB, 2020) and a spatial mapping tool for \r\nvulnerability to climate change (Taylor et al., 2014)."


id: d1e130b401eb73541a96b97b47d3c3d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30543
content:
"Accelerated warming is shrinking tropical glaciers at rates unseen since \r\nthe middle of the Little Ice Age (Rabatel et al., 2013; Zemp et al., 2015). \r\nClimate-driven upwards migration of species, associated with warming \r\nand glacier retreat, has modified species distribution and richness and \r\ncommunity composition along the Andes altitudinal gradient (Seimon \r\net al., 2017; Carilla et al., 2018; Zimmer et al., 2018; Moret et al., 2019). \r\nClimate-driven glacier retreat alters hydrological regimes, directly \r\nimpacting Andean pastoralists (Lopez-i-Gelats et  al., 2016; Postigo, \r\n2020; Thompson et al., 2021) and the provision of water to lowland \r\nregions (Vuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., 2019; Orlove et al., 2019; Rasul \r\nand Molden, 2019). The drying of wetlands has modified alpine plant \r\ncommunities, which are relevant for storing carbon, regulating water \r\nand providing food for local livestock; this has led to negative impacts \r\non herders' livelihoods (Dangles et al"


id: 37f97b0d866c9b8e2509df7fa3848ece
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vector_id: 6182
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", 2017; Polk et al., 2017; Postigo, \r\n2020) and affecting the wild vicuna and the domesticated alpaca and \r\nllama. The wool from Vicuna (Vicugna vicugna) and alpaca (V. pacos) \r\nis an important source of income for indigenous communities and the \r\nllama (Lama glama) is their main source of meat. Vicuna are adjusting \r\ntheir feeding behaviour and spatial distribution as vegetation migrates \r\nupwards (Reider and Schmidt, 2020), causing them to roam outside \r\nprotected areas and become vulnerable to illegal poaching."


id: 3f79abc1a9ab13119ce0564cb9422680
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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"Andean herders have responded to the drying of grasslands by \r\nincreasing livestock mobility, accessing new grazing areas through \r\nkinship and leases, creating and expanding wetlands through building \r\nlong irrigation canals (several kilometres in length), limiting the \r\nallocation of wetlands to new households and sometimes cultivating \r\ngrasses (Postigo, 2013; Lopez-i-Gelats et al., 2015; Postigo, 2020). These \r\nadaptive responses to regional climate change are enabled by deeply \r\nembedded indigenous institutions that have traditionally governed \r\nAndean pastoralists, but they have become severely compromised \r\nby national socioeconomic pressures (Valdivia et  al., 2010; Postigo, \r\n2019; Postigo, 2020)"


id: 2879c039bd81903bd4303aece5e30a51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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" For instance, the quality of water and local \r\npastoralists' access to it and control of it have declined, due to new \r\nmining concessions granted in the headwaters of Andean watersheds \r\n(Bebbington and Bury, 2009) and the diversion of water to areas of \r\nlowland coastal desert for agricultural irrigation (Mark et al., 2017)."


id: d6d97215f2ec08a67cb257c456276b2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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"The African penguin's survival in the wild is dependent on the \r\nsuccess of adaptation action. Increasing access to food resources is \r\na management priority (Birdlife International, 2018). One approach \r\nis to reduce fishing pressure immediately around breeding colonies. \r\nAn experiment excluding fishing around colonies since 2008 has \r\ndemonstrated positive effects (Pichegru et al., 2010; Pichegru et al., \r\n2012; Sherley et al., 2015; Sherley et al., 2018; Campbell et al., 2019b). \r\nA second approach is to establish breeding colonies closer to their prey. \r\nAn ongoing translocation initiative aims to entice birds eastwards, to \r\nrecolonise an extinct breeding colony and potentially establish a new \r\none (Schwitzer et al., 2013; Sherley et al., 2014; Birdlife International, \r\n2018)"


id: 579f8574144fa9ca5bba0220fe12635a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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"Durban was an early pioneer of EbA in a city context, establishing a \r\nMunicipal Climate Protection Programme (MCPP) in 2004 (Roberts et al., \r\n2012). The city, situated in a global biodiversity hotspot (World Bank, \r\n2016), has a rapidly growing population (approximately 3.5 million) and \r\nis highly fragmented (Roberts et al., 2013). High levels of development, \r\nparticularly in peri-urban areas, have encroached into natural habitats \r\n(World Bank, 2016). Degradation of the natural resource base in this \r\nway has direct economic and financial costs, is threatening Durban's \r\nlong-term sustainability and is exacerbated by climate change (World \r\nBank, 2016; eThekwini Municipality, 2020). The impacts of climate \r\nchange are anticipated to increase unless appropriate mitigation and \r\nadaptation interventions are prioritised (eThekwini Municipality, 2020)"


id: af2732a4e5bee747f07b20f989e3c08b
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" \r\nHigh rates of poverty, unemployment and health problems have pushed \r\nDurban to explore a climate change adaptation work stream within its \r\nMCPP (Roberts et al., 2013; Roberts et al., 2020b)."


id: b5345b38d4df3a2bc4c33a27bbdadef
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"Lessons learnt from Durban's experience include the importance of \r\nmeaningful partnerships, long-term financial commitments (Douwes \r\net  al., 2015) and significant political and administrative will (Roberts \r\net  al., 2012; Roberts et  al., 2020b). Securing these requires strong \r\nleadership (Douwes et al., 2015), including from local champions (Archer \r\net al., 2014), even when EbA is considered cost-effective (Roberts et al., \r\n2012). Projects for the restoration of natural habitats are seen as an ideal \r\ntool, as they combine mitigation outcomes with an increased adaptation \r\ncapacity, not only reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems and \r\ncommunities (Douwes et al., 2016) but creating economic opportunities. \r\nThese include direct job creation (Diederichs and Roberts, 2016; Douwes \r\nand Buthelezi, 2016) with various spin-offs such as better education for \r\nschoolchildren (Douwes et al., 2015)"


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" Indirect benefits, including better \r\nwater quality and reduced flooding, are generated as a result of improved \r\necosystem service delivery (Douwes and Buthelezi, 2016). In areas that \r\nare already developed, opportunities for green-roof infrastructure can \r\nyield reductions in roof storm-water runoff (by approx.. 60 ml/m2\r\n/min \r\nduring a rainfall event), slow the release of water over time and reduce \r\ntemperatures on roof surfaces (Roberts et al., 2012)."


id: 3091d3718ac2e4278fcca5146c7f37b2
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"Most of the TWWHA is managed as a wilderness zone and is currently \r\ncarried out in a manner that allows natural processes to predominate. \r\nThe exclusion of fire from stands of fire-sensitive trees such as the \r\npencil pine, Athrotaxis cupressoides, is part of this management \r\nstrategy, possible in the past due to the moisture differential and lower \r\nflammability of these areas. However, in recent years, the threat posed \r\nby extensive and repeated wildfires and increasing awareness that fire \r\nrisk is likely to increase (Fox-Hughes et al., 2014; Love et al., 2017; Love \r\net al., 2019) have meant that more direct management intervention \r\nhas been implemented. There has been a realisation that a 'hands \r\noff' approach to managing the threat will not be sufficient to protect \r\nthe palaeo-endemics"


id: 3f7427d23ab869567cf3fb6d66fab095
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content:
" Not only is fire-fighting difficult in this remote \r\nwilderness area, but limited resources mean that fire managers must \r\nprioritise where fires will be fought when many fires are threatening \r\ntowns and lives across the state simultaneously."


id: 39f053cf5bb69a8ba9b47d4b8d8c3490
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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"Improving the resilience of SEA peatlands to fire and climate \r\nchange through restoration is extremely difficult and presents \r\nmany challenges. The Indonesian government has tasked the Badan \r\nRestorasi Gambut (Peatland Restoration Agency) to restore peatlands \r\n(Darusman et al., 2021; Giesen, 2021). Other local initiatives exist, such \r\nas fire management programmes and restoration projects (Puspitaloka \r\net al., 2020). Since 2016, the government of Indonesia has re-wetted \r\n~380,000 hectares of degraded peatlands, mainly by blocking canals \r\nand flooding, but less than 2000 hectares have been successfully \r\nrestored to sustaining native plant species common to peat swamp \r\nforests (Giesen, 2021). Replanting native trees has had relatively little \r\nsuccess (Lampela et al., 2017) because such trees have low tolerance \r\nto prolonged inundation and no fire adaptation strategies (Page et al., \r\n2009; Roucoux et  al., 2013; Dohong et  al., 2018; Cole et  al"


id: 2dded6077c9881f608cc676761be89a2
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"While the science of restoration has generated many successes, \r\nsome habitats are very difficult to restore, making certain decisions \r\neffectively irreversible. For example, Acacia nilotica was introduced \r\ninto Indonesia in the 1850s for gum arabic, with planting expanded \r\nfor fire breaks in the 1960s. This tree became invasive and has already \r\nreplaced >50% of the savanna habitat in the Baluran National Park, \r\nwith complete replacement expected in the near future. This shift from \r\nsavanna to acacia forest is causing large declines in native species, \r\nincluding the charismatic wild banteng, Bos javanicus, and the wild \r\ndog (dhole, Cuon alpinus) (Caesariantika et  al., 2011; Padmanaba \r\net al., 2017; Zahra et al., 2020). Multiple approaches to controlling the \r\nspread of this acacia have been ineffective, highlighting the difficulty \r\nof reversing the decision to plant this tree (Zahra et al., 2020)"


id: fa4716f07fbd3821cf4433eea9684bab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
" Another \r\nexample is the difficulties in restoring the tropical peat forests of SEA \r\n(Section 2.6.5.10)."


id: 1b325ec5789c78f1cfd00afafba6dae0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 1743
content:
"The barriers to successful management are complex, and include the \r\ndisparity in time frames between ecological restoration and political/\r\nsocioeconomic needs (Harrison et  al., 2020) and an over-focus on \r\nfire-fighting rather than fire prevention (Mishra et  al., 2021a). Early \r\nprotection of peat forests has been highlighted as a more effective \r\nmanagement strategy than restoration, not only on islands in SEA \r\nbut also in areas like Papua New Guinea, which may be targeted for \r\nthe expansion of estate crop plantations (Neuzil et al., 1997; Dennis, \r\n1999; Anshari et  al., 2001; Anshari et  al., 2004; Hooijer et  al., 2006; \r\nHeil et al., 2007; Page et al., 2009; Page et al., 2011; Posa et al., 2011; \r\nMiettinen et  al., 2012; Wetlands International, 2012; Biagioni et  al., \r\n2015; Miettinen et al., 2016; Rieley and Page, 2016; Adila et al., 2017; \r\nCole et al., 2019; Vetrita and Cochrane, 2019; Harrison et al., 2020; Hoyt \r\net al., 2020; Ruwaimana et al., 2020; Ward et al"


id: 889157c3b5b6228b8770f3c395a77ba9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
"There is also increasing evidence, reported in this chapter, that the loss \r\nand degradation of natural and semi-natural habitats exacerbates the \r\nimpacts of climate change and climatic extreme events on biodiversity \r\nand ecosystem services (high confidence) (e.g., in (Ogden et al., 2013; \r\nEigenbrod et al., 2015; Struebig et al., 2015; Stevens et al., 2016; Oliver \r\net al., 2017; McAlpine et al., 2018; Taffarello et al., 2018; Lehikoinen \r\net  al., 2019; Birk et  al., 2020; Chapman et  al., 2020; Agol et  al., \r\n2021; Khaniya et al., 2021; Lara et al., 2021; Lehikoinen et al., 2021). \r\nConsidering these two sets of evidence together, it is clear that climate \r\nchange adaptation and ecosystem degradation both need to be \r\naddressed if either is to be tackled successfully (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) as a number of recent publications concluded (Haddad \r\net al., 2015; Hannah et al., 2020; Arneth et al., 2021; Portner et al., \r\n2021)"


id: a604e7d92e20ac0369059be56a0226a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 23672
content:
" Taking this combined body of evidence, the assessment is that \r\nthe protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural ecosystems \r\nare key adaptation measures (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Section 2.5.4)."


id: 5c8b0a551f31df7283be425fc92cd28e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
"CRD is the subject of Chapter 18. This section briefly assesses some of \r\nthe fundamental issues for CRD relating to ecosystems. An overview of \r\nthe importance of specific ecosystem services for CRD is presented in \r\nBox 18.7 in Chapter 18. A large body of evidence has demonstrated the \r\nextent to which human life, well-being and economies are dependent \r\non healthy ecosystems and also the range of threats that these are \r\nfaced with (high confidence) (IPBES, 2019; Dasgupta, 2021; Portner \r\net al., 2021). An analysis of 64 studies found a strong positive synergy \r\namong eight critical regulating services of healthy ecosystems, \r\nincluding climate regulation, water provisioning, pest and disease \r\ncontrol and adjacent-crop pollination (Lee and Lautenbach, 2016). \r\nThe health of ecosystems is, in turn, reliant upon the maintenance \r\nof natural levels of species' richness and functional diversity (high \r\nconfidence) (Lavorel et al., 2020) (see Section 2.5.4)"


id: 96574bdfb40e3ff27d97b59ff79cd96e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
" A meta-analysis \r\nof 74 studies documented that the mechanism for increased ecosystem \r\nstability is increased asynchrony among species, which itself is a \r\nproduct of greater species diversity (Xu et al., 2021b). Responding to \r\nthese threats requires the protection and restoration of natural and \r\nsemi-natural ecosystems, together with sustainable management of \r\nother areas."


id: 1d95d1aceac0c57dd0345214523da8e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2096
content:
"Large-scale protection and restoration of ecosystems can also make \r\na significant contribution to climate change mitigation (Dinerstein \r\net al., 2020; Roberts et al., 2020a; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020). Globally, \r\nthere is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high \r\nintact biodiversity (mainly in the peatland tropical forests of Asia, the \r\nwestern Amazon and the high Arctic), but only 12% of this is protected \r\n(high confidence) (see also sections 2.4.4.4.1, 2.4.4.4.3, 2.5.3.4) \r\n(Soto-Navarro et  al., 2020). Peatlands are particularly important \r\ncarbon stores but are threatened by human disturbance, LULCC (Leifeld \r\net al., 2019) and fire (sections 2.4.3.8, 2.5.2.8) (Turetsky et al., 2015). \r\nRestoration of peatlands is not only an efficient climate solution in \r\nterms of emissions of GHGs (Nugent et al., 2019), it may also increase \r\necosystem resilience (Glenk et al., 2021)"


id: 86e9be84a28701409b6d3057afd83c08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
" Global restoration efforts are \r\nongoing to target degraded temperate peatlands in the Americas and \r\nEurope (Chimner et al., 2017) in recognition of their importance for \r\nclimate change mitigation (Paustian et al., 2016; Bossio et al., 2020; \r\nHumpenoder et al., 2020; Drever et al., 2021; Tanneberger et al., 2021). \r\nIt has been estimated that the global GHG-saving potential of peatland \r\nrestoration is similar to the most optimistic sequestration potential \r\nfrom all agricultural soils (Leifeld and Menichetti, 2018). However, \r\nthe pressure on peatlands from human activity remains high in many \r\nparts of the world (Humpenoder et al., 2020; Tanneberger et al., 2021). \r\nCurrently, the rapid destruction of tropical peatlands overshadows any \r\ncurrent restoration efforts in temperate peatlands or any potential \r\ncarbon gain from natural high-latitude peatlands (Roucoux et al., 2017; \r\nWijedasa et al., 2017; Leifeld et al., 2019) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.4.4.4.2, \r\n2.4.4.4.4, 2.5.2.8, 2.5.3"


id: 62dfe5d0f9b6fea03faf0ec92c457ca1
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content:
"The CBD set the Aichi 2020 Target at 17% of each country to be protected \r\nfor biodiversity. Analyses suggest that 30% or even 50% of land and \r\nsea needs to be protected or restored to confer adequate protection \r\nfor species and ecosystem services (high confidence) (Dinerstein et al., \r\n2019; Woodley et al., 2019; Brooks et al., 2020; Hannah et al., 2020; \r\nZhao et al., 2020; Sala et al., 2021). Hannah et al. (2020) estimated \r\nthat limiting warming to 2degC and protecting 30% of high-biodiversity \r\nregions (in Africa, Asia and Latin America) reduced the risk of species' \r\nextinctions by half (medium confidence). The placement of protected \r\nareas is as important as the total area (Pimm et al., 2018), and the \r\nquality of the protection (strictness and enforcement) is as important \r\nas the official land designation (Shah et al., 2021). Pimm et al"


id: 7c8d6770df79e465fca694c1679d9fe2
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content:
" (2018) \r\nfound that many small protected areas are successful because they are \r\nin areas of very high biodiversity containing species with small range \r\nsizes, while many large regions identified as wild are often of low \r\nbiodiversity value even though they may have a high mitigation value \r\n(e.g., the high Arctic tundra). A global meta-analysis of 89 restoration "


id: 39c4e458d1d1c17b24920b8207e16813
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content:
"In some cases, actions supported by international donors and \r\npresented as addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation in \r\nthe natural environment can have damaging consequences for people \r\nand nature as well as failing to deliver adaptation and mitigation. One \r\nexample of this was presented by Work et al. (2019), who reviewed \r\nthree climate change mitigation and adaptation projects in Cambodia: \r\nan irrigation project, a protected-area forest management project \r\nand a reforestation project. In each case, they found evidence of the \r\nrights of local communities being violated, maladaptation and the \r\ndestruction of biodiverse habitats. They concluded that the potential \r\nfor maladaptation and adverse social and environmental impacts had \r\nbeen ignored by international donors and the national authorities, and \r\nthat there was a need for much stricter accountability mechanisms. \r\nMoyo et al"


id: c1142cf5f28691df44e8129026fb2454
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" (2021), using case studies from South Africa, documented \r\ngreater success of ecosystem restoration projects when they embraced \r\nbroader SDGs, particularly enhancement of people's livelihoods. Better \r\nassessment of the impacts of adaptation and mitigation measures \r\non people and ecosystems, before they are implemented, will be \r\nincreasingly necessary to avoid unintended and damaging consequences \r\nas their deployment is scaled up (Larsen, 2014; Enriquez-de-Salamanca \r\net al., 2017; Pour et al., 2017). This applies to ostensibly nature-based \r\napproaches as well as more engineering-based ones."


id: f655cc9d06d08ab4f470d2d74e703d88
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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vector_id: 36269
content:
"At a local level, EbA can often provide a wide range of additional benefits \r\nfor sustainable development in both rural and urban areas (Wilbanks, \r\n2003; Nelson et  al., 2007; Cohen-Shacham et  al., 2016; Hobbie and \r\nGrimm, 2020; Martin et al., 2020). A number of the case studies above, \r\nsuch as in Durban and at Bhojtal Lake, illustrate this (section 2.6.5). A \r\nkey element of CRD is ensuring that actions taken to mitigate climate \r\nchange do not compromise adaptation, biodiversity and human needs. \r\nThis depends on choosing appropriate actions for different locations \r\n(Box  2.2, Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter). A particularly \r\nnotable case of this is the creation of woodland described in Box 2.2: \r\nre-afforestation of previously forested areas can provide multiple benefits \r\n(Lee et al., 2018; Lee et al., 2020) including those for climate change \r\nmitigation, adaptation and biodiversity"


id: 6eabe1146d2a1adb3482883b1e86aea1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
" However, planting trees where \r\nthey would not naturally grow can create multiple problems including \r\nthe loss of native biodiversity and the disruption of hydrology (Box 2.2). \r\nIt is also the case that protection of existing natural forest ecosystems is \r\nthe highest priority for reducing GHG emissions (Moomaw et al., 2019) \r\nand restoration may not always be practical (see Section  2.6.5.10). \r\n(Sections  2.4.3.6, 2.4.3.7, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.3, \r\nBox 2.2, Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter)"


id: ff43b6546591aae9c6938ba2f407f1e9
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content:
"The protection/restoration of natural systems including reducing non-climate stressors, and the sustainable management of semi-natural \r\nareas emerge as necessary actions for adaptation to minimise extinctions of species, the reaching of tipping points that cause regime \r\nshifts in natural system and the loss of whole ecosystems and their associated benefits for humans (Scheffer et al., 2001; Folke et al., 2005; \r\nLuther et al., 2020) (Chapters 2 and 3 in this report; AR6 WGIII Chapter 7). Such measures are critical for the conservation of biodiversity \r\nand the provision of ecosystem goods and services in the face of projected climate change (Duarte et  al., 2020)"


id: 4d69dbeb09af8aba44f1aa940b952798
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" Supporting local \r\nlivelihoods and providing benefits to indigenous local communities and millions of private landowners, together with their active \r\nengagement in decision-making, are critical to ensuring support for NbS and their successful delivery (high confidence) (Chapter 5 in this \r\nreport; Figure Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1)(Ceddia et al., 2015; Blackman et al., 2017; Nabuurs et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2019a; Smith \r\net al., 2019b; Jones et al., 2020a; McElwee et al., 2020; Cao et al., 2021)."


id: bbfcb0b5be397bcc4e4d729f7a64326d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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content:
"Natural forests and sustainably managed biodiverse forests play important roles in climate change mitigation and adaptation while \r\nproviding many other ecosystem goods and services (very high confidence) (Bradshaw and Warkentin, 2015; Favero et al., 2020; Mackey \r\net al., 2020). Contributions of natural forests to climate change mitigation are estimated at a median of 5-7 GtCO2 yr-1 (Roe et al., \r\n2019). Forests influence the water cycle on a local, regional and global scale (Creed and van Noordwijk, 2018), reducing surface runoff, \r\nincreasing infiltration to groundwater and improving water quality (Bruijnzeel, 2004; Zhou et al., 2015a; Ellison et al., 2017; Alvarez\u0002Garreton et al., 2019). Recent evidence shows that downwind precipitation is also influenced by evapotranspiration from forests (Keys \r\net al., 2016; Ellison et al., 2017)"


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" Protecting existing natural forests and sustainably managing production forests in a holistic manner can \r\noptimise the provision of the many functions forests fulfil for owners, conservation, mitigation and for society as a whole (Bauhus et al., \r\n2009; Nabuurs et al., 2013)."


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"Climate change may mean that, in any given location, different species will be able to survive and become dominant and restoring the \r\nformer composition of forests may not be possible (Sections 2.4, 2.5). Severe disturbances such as insect/pathogen outbreaks, wildfires \r\nand droughts, which are an increasing risk, can cause widespread tree mortality resulting in sequestered forest carbon being returned to \r\nthe atmosphere (Anderegg et al., 2020; Senf and Seidl, 2021), suggesting that we need to adapt (Sections 2.4, 2.5, 13.3 14.4.1, Box 14.1). \r\nAdaptation measures, such as increasing the diversity of forest stands through ecological restoration rather than monoculture plantations \r\ncan help to reduce these risks (high confidence)"


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" When plantations are established without effective landscape planning and meaningful \r\nengagement including free prior and informed consent, they can present risks to biodiversity and the rights, well-being and livelihoods of \r\nindigenous and local communities as well as being less climate-resilient than natural forests (very high confidence) (Section 5.6) (Corbera \r\net al., 2017; Mori et al., 2021)."


id: e427058de64050ae7f931bdb4e6b224d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
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"Peatlands are naturally high-carbon ecosystems, which have built up over millennia. Draining, cutting and burning peat lead to oxidation \r\nand the release of CO2 (very high confidence). Re-wetting by blocking drainage and preventing cutting and burning can reverse this \r\nprocess on temperate peatlands (medium confidence) but takes many years (Bonn et al., 2016). Trees are naturally found on many tropical \r\npeatlands and restoration can involve removing non-native species like the oil palm and re-establishing natural forest. However, peatland \r\ntropical forest is difficult to fully restore, and native pond-fish, vital as a local food, often do not return. Protecting intact peat forests, \r\nrather than attempting to restore cleared forest, is by far the more effective pathway, in terms of cost, CO2 mitigation and the protection \r\nof food sources (Kreft and Jetz, 2007)"


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" Naturally treeless temperate and boreal peatlands have, in some cases, been drained to enable \r\ntrees to be planted, which then leads to CO2 emissions, and restoration requires the removal of trees as well as re-blocking drainage (high \r\nconfidence) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.5.2.8, 2.6.5.10)."


id: c9d5e0e68a34e3f4599232c45dcb73c1
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"Blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass meadows; see Glossary Appendix II) often have high local rates of carbon \r\naccumulation and sequestration (Section 3.5.5.5) (Macreadie et al., 2019). However, quantification of their overall mitigation value is \r\ndifficult due to the variable production of CH4 and N2O (Adams et al., 2012; Rosentreter et al., 2018; MacLean et al., 2019b), uncertainties \r\nregarding the provenance of the carbon accumulated (Macreadie et al., 2019) and the release of CO2 by biogenic carbonate formation \r\nin seagrass ecosystems (Saderne et al., 2019). Therefore, blue carbon strategies, referring to climate change mitigation and adaptation \r\nactions based on the conservation and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, can be effective NbS, with evidence of the recovery of \r\ncarbon stocks following restoration, although their global or regional carbon sequestration potential and net mitigation potential may be \r\nlimited (medium confidence) (Sections 3"


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"They can also significantly attenuate wave energy, raise the seafloor (thereby counteracting the effects of SLR) and buffer storm surges \r\nand erosion from flooding (high confidence) (Sections 13.2.2, 13.10.2). Additionally, they provide a suite of cultural (e.g., tourism and the \r\nlivelihoods and well-being of native and local communities), provision (e.g., mangrove wood, edible fish and shellfish) and regulation \r\n(e.g., nutrient cycling) services (high confidence) (Section 3.5.5.5). These services have motivated the implementation of management \r\nand conservation strategies of these ecosystems (Sections 3.6.3.1.6, 13.4.2). Blue carbon strategies are relatively new, with many of them \r\nexperimental and small-scale; there is therefore only limited evidence of their long-term effectiveness"


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" There is also limited information \r\non the potential emission of other GHGs from restored blue carbon ecosystems, although reconnecting hydrological flow in mangroves \r\nand restoring saltmarshes are effective interventions to reduce CH4 and CO2 (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Kroeger et al., 2017; \r\nAl-Haj and Fulweiler, 2020)."


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"health and well-being (high confidence) (Sections 2.2, 2.6, Chapter 6) (Kowarik, 2011; Frantzeskaki et al., 2019; Keeler et al., 2019). Not \r\nall green schemes are considered 'Nature-Based Solutions' if they do not benefit biodiversity, but carefully designed urban greening can \r\nbe effective NbS. Careful planning also helps limit negative equity consequences such as benefitting wealthy neighbourhoods more than \r\npoor neighbourhoods (Geneletti et al., 2016; Pasimeni et al., 2019; Grafakos et al., 2020). Effective planning should also consider what is \r\nappropriate for the climate and conditions of each city. For example, some trees emit volatiles (e.g., isoprene) which, in the presence of \r\ncertain atmospheric pollutants, can increase surface ozone which can, in turn, cause human respiratory problems (Kreft and Jetz, 2007)"


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" \r\nWetland restoration close to human settlements needs to be paired with mosquito control to prevent negative impacts on human health \r\nand well-being (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020), but it has been shown to provide better filtration and toxicity reduction with a lower \r\nenvironmental impact than other forms of waste-water treatment (Vymazal et al., 2021), including 'green roofs' and 'green walls' (Chapter \r\n6 in this report) (Addo-Bankas et al., 2021)."


id: 82d8f1fb4d5c5229ae210d1b09ccda59
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"Agro-forestry, cover crops and other practices that increase vegetation cover and enhance soil organic matter, carefully managed and \r\nvarying by agro-ecosystem, mitigate climate change (high confidence) (Zomer et al., 2016; Aryal et al., 2019; Nadege et al., 2019). Global \r\nmeta-analyses demonstrate agro-forestry as storing 20-33% more soil carbon than conventional agriculture (De Stefano and Jacobson, \r\n2018; Shi et al., 2018) and reducing the spread of fire (Sections 5.6, 13.5.2, 7.4.3, Box 7.7). Minimising synthetic inputs such as nitrogen\u0002based fertilizers reduces emissions (Gerber et al., 2016). Cover crops can reduce N2O emissions and increase soil organic carbon (Abdalla \r\net al., 2019). Conservation farming (no-till with residue retention and crop rotation) increases soil organic carbon, particularly in arid \r\nregions (Sun et al., 2020)"


id: 72cf951c139156024d4f4e993f27c05c
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" Silvo-pastoral systems (pastures with trees) and other practices that increase vegetation cover and enhance soil \r\norganic matter increase sequestered carbon in vegetation and soils (Zomer et al., 2016; Aryal et al., 2019; Nadege et al., 2019; Ryan, 2019). \r\nAgro-ecologically improved management of land for crops and grazing has significant mitigation potential, estimated at 2.8-4.1 GtCO2-eq \r\nyr-1 (Smith et al., 2020) (Sections 5.10, 5.14, Box 5.10, Cross Working-Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5; WGIII 7.4.3, Box 7.7)."


id: 9348baf47d62ed4dd09f7340d38ede9a
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"AF enhances adaptation to climate change, including resilience to extreme events. Building organic matter improves the water-holding \r\ncapacity of soils and buffers against drought; increased perenniality and high levels of ground cover reduce soil erosion during storms; \r\nagro-forestry shelters livestock and crops during heat waves; landscape complexity and agro-biodiversity increase resilience to disease and \r\npests and stabilise livestock production; and restoration of oyster reefs provides thermal refugia and storm surge protection (Henry et al., \r\n2018; Kremen and Merenlender, 2018; Kuyah et al., 2019; Gilby et al., 2020; Niether et al., 2020; Richard et al., 2020; Howie and Bishop, \r\n2021; Snapp et al., 2021). Livestock mobility enables adjustment to increased climatic variability while maintaining the productivity of \r\npastoral systems (Turner and Schlecht, 2019; Scoones, 2020)"


id: a15bd06f229212a9a0f0826b5aef682b
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" The adoption of agro-ecology principles and practices will therefore be highly \r\nbeneficial to maintaining healthy, productive food systems under climate change (high confidence) (Sections 5.4.4, 13.5.2, FAQ 12.4)."


id: 641a0702a787fdaa5bb1b03cdcb56d4
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"AF practices such as hedgerows and poly-cultures maintain habitat and connectivity for biodiversity, thus aiding the ability of wild \r\nspecies to respond to climate change via range shifts, and support ecosystem functioning under climate stress compared to conventional \r\nagriculture (high confidence) (Section 5.4.4.4) (Buechley et al., 2015; Kremen and Merenlender, 2018; Albrecht et al., 2020). Increasing \r\nfarm biodiversity benefits pollination, pest control, nutrient cycling, water regulation and soil fertility (Beillouin et al., 2019; Tamburini \r\net al., 2020; Snapp et al., 2021). Biodiverse agro-forestry systems increase ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits compared to \r\nsimple agro-forestry and conventional agriculture (high confidence), with up to 45% more biodiversity and 65% more ecosystem services \r\ncompared to conventional production of timber and crops and profits from livestock in the Atlantic Forest in Brazil (Santos et al"


id: 9580f95a22c49cdcf5e73af1ac7597a8
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", 2019), \r\nincluding benefits for birds and local tree species (Braga et al., 2019) and meaning there are fewer invasive exotic plants species (de \r\nAlmeida Campos Cordeiro et al., 2018). AF includes the conservation of semi-natural woodlands, which can conserve bird predators of \r\ninsect pests (Gonthier et al., 2019). The richness and abundance of insect species, including essential pollinators, are increased by organic \r\nfarming (Sections 5.10, 12.6) (Kennedy et al., 2013; Haggar et al., 2015; Lichtenberg et al., 2017)."


id: f1b828312f326c5400e76317f71c0db5
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"System-level agro-ecological transitions require policy support for experimentation and exchange of knowledge by farmers, community\u0002based participatory methodologies and market and policy measures, for example, public procurement, local and regional market support, \r\nregulation or payments for environmental services (Mier y Teran Gimenez Cacho et al., 2018; HLPE, 2019; Snapp et al., 2021). Scientific \r\nconsensus about the food security and environmental implications of agro-ecological transitions on a global scale is lacking. Yields of agro\u0002forestry and organic farming can be lower than high-input agricultural systems but, conversely, AF can boost productivity and profit, varying \r\naccording to the time frame and the socioeconomic, political or ecosystem context (medium confidence) (Section 5.14) (Muller et al., 2017; \r\nBarbieri et al., 2019; Smith et al., 2019b; Smith et al., 2020)"


id: 6782414df3f8ecb597e2bb14d913b0f9
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" Such contrasting results and the limited investment in agro-ecological research \r\nto date mean it is paramount to assess the global and regional impacts of agro-ecological transitions on food production, ecosystems and \r\neconomies in the context of climate change adaptation (Section 5.14) (DeLonge et al., 2016; Muller et al., 2017; Barbieri et al., 2019)."


id: 11e302868f1a5212951b1a17efcb7b49
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"sequestration over existing long-term accumulated carbon stocks; (2) being detrimental for biodiversity, undermining conservation \r\nadaptation; and (3) eroding other ecosystem services important for human health and well-being (high confidence). Conversely, well\u0002designed and implemented mitigation efforts have the potential to provide co-benefits in terms of climate change adaptation as well as \r\nproviding multiple goods and services, including the conservation of biodiversity, clean and abundant water resources, flood mitigation, \r\nsustainable livelihoods, food and fibre security and human health and well-being (high confidence). A key aspect of such 'smart' climate \r\nmitigation is the implementation of inclusive and adaptive management pathways (Section 1.4.2)"


id: f07e341d9794ec85fa33116e1d4a8b08
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" These entail acceptance of the uncertainty \r\ninherent in projections of future climate change, especially at the regional or local level, and using decision-making processes that keep \r\nopen as many options as possible for as long as possible, with periodic re-evaluation to aid in choosing pathways forward, even as systems \r\nare being impacted by ongoing climate change (Figure Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Section 1.4.2)."


id: 60bca83a311c8af3bc4a0d86a8a4a677
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"Another aspect of the benefits to people from ecosystems that needs \r\nto be taken into account in CRD is increasingly strong evidence of the \r\nbenefits of natural environments for human health and well-being \r\nbeyond the provision of basic necessities such as food and water \r\n(Bratman et  al., 2019; Marselle et  al., 2021). Meta-analyses of \r\n162  studies involving 51,738 people documented that individuals \r\nwith high levels of contact with nature throughout their lives felt \r\nsignificantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives, \r\nand engaged in more pro-nature behaviours than those with little \r\nor no contact with nature (high confidence) (Capaldi et  al., 2014; \r\nMackay and Schmitt, 2019; Pritchard et  al., 2020; Whitburn et  al., \r\n2020)"


id: 7b987c99fef9310b15e1e0cbf9dd489e
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" Meta-analyses of manipulative human trials across 65 studies \r\ndocumented a significant increase in positive feelings and attitudes \r\nand a decline in negative feelings after experimental treatments \r\ninvolving nature (medium confidence) (Bowler et al., 2010b; McMahan \r\nand Estes, 2015; Soga et al., 2017). In the context of CRD improving \r\nthe extent to which humans see themselves as part of the natural \r\nworld--known as human-nature connectedness (HNC)--increasing \r\naccess to natural areas, particularly within urban areas, can provide \r\nadditional health, cultural and recreation benefits of NbS as well as \r\nincreasing public engagement and support (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Wilbanks, 2003; Nelson et al., 2007; Bowler et al., 2010b; \r\nCapaldi et al., 2014; McMahan and Estes, 2015; Cohen-Shacham et al., \r\n2016; Soga et al., 2017; Mackay and Schmitt, 2019; Work et al., 2019; \r\nHobbie and Grimm, 2020; Pritchard et al., 2020; Whitburn et al., 2020)."


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"A key element of economic feasibility is the cost of adaptation options. \r\nCosts of adaptation vary greatly depending on the actions taken, the \r\nlocation, the methods used, the need for ongoing maintenance and \r\nwhether land purchase is necessary. At its simplest, adaptation may \r\nbe a matter of taking account of actual or potential climate change \r\nimpacts in the course of conservation planning and have little or no \r\nadditional cost. For example, if a species of conservation concern \r\ncolonises or starts to use a new area as a result of climate change, \r\nlike migrant waterfowl shifting the locations where they overwinter \r\n(Pavon-Jordan et al., 2020), protection or habitat management may be \r\nredirected there. At the other extreme, large-scale restoration can incur \r\nsignificant costs, for example, between 1993 and 2015, the EU-LIFE \r\nnature programme invested 167"


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"6 million Euro in 80 projects, which \r\naim to restore over 913 km2\r\n of peatland habitats in Western European \r\ncountries (Andersen et  al., 2017). This is equivalent to <2% of the \r\nremaining peatland area, much of which has been affected to at least \r\nsome extent by human pressures, and restoring the total affected area \r\nwill cost considerably more."


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"The IPCC (2018a) defined feasibility as 'the degree to which climate \r\ngoals and response options are considered possible and/or desirable' \r\n(IPCC, 2018b) and set out an approach to assessing the feasibility \r\nof pathways to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5degC. Singh \r\net  al. (2020) developed this approach for adaptation, recognising \r\nsix different dimensions of feasibility: economic, technological, \r\ninstitutional, socio-cultural, environmental/ecological and geophysical \r\n(Table 2.9). Feasibility is considered more fully in other chapters of this \r\nreport, including Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18. Adaptation \r\nfor biodiversity conservation and EbA encompasses a large range of \r\napproaches and techniques (Sections  2.6.2, 2.6.3) and will vary in \r\ndifferent contexts globally, as illustrated by the range of case studies \r\n(Section 2.6.5)"


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" It is important to take into account specific regional \r\nand local circumstances as well as the type of adaptation action \r\nenvisaged before making a feasibility assessment. It is also important "


id: c05fe218d53779e30f6b39a8f712d25c
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"To hold global temperature rise to well below 2degC and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5degC as required by the Paris Agreement requires \r\nmajor changes in land use and management. There are many opportunities for NbS, which can provide climate change mitigation and \r\nadaptation in ways that protect and restore biodiversity and provide a wide range of benefits to people (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL \r\nin this chapter). There are also new technologies and approaches to develop the bioeconomy in ways which will provide many benefits \r\n(Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5). Nevertheless, renewable energy is a large and essential element of climate \r\nchange mitigation and there are adverse impacts on biodiversity associated with some types of renewable energy, including wind and \r\nsolar technologies (Rehbein et al., 2020)"


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" However, one of the most serious conflicts emerging is that between land-based approaches \r\nto mitigation and the protection of biodiversity, particularly as a result of afforestation strategies and potentially large areas devoted \r\nto bioenergy, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). It is important to recognise the impacts of climate change \r\nmitigation at the same time as assessing the direct impacts of climate change, and ensure that adaptation and mitigation are joined up."


id: 91d9a182574bc63736bec62f6865eac6
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"BECCS is an integral part of all widely accepted pathways to keeping global temperature rise to 1.5degC (IPCC, 2018b). This requires large \r\nareas of land, which can be in conflict with the need to produce food and protect biodiversity (Smith et al., 2018). One study examined \r\nthe combined impacts of climate change and LULCC for bioenergy, and found that severe impacts on species were likely if bioenergy \r\nwas a major component of strategies for climate change mitigation (Hof et al., 2018). A study on the potential impacts of bioenergy \r\nproduction and climate change on European birds found that one scenario for land conversion for bioenergy to meet a 2degC target would \r\nhave less impact on species range loss than a global temperature increase of 4degC, but noted that if bioenergy were the only mitigation \r\noption it would 'very likely result in the negative effects of bioenergy outweighing the positive effects' (Meller et al., 2015)"


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" To avoid the \r\nworst impacts of BECCS, it will need to be carefully targeted according to context and local conditions, and other mitigation strategies \r\nprioritised so that its use can be minimised (IPCC, 2019a; Ohashi et al., 2019)."


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"Reforestation of previously forested areas can bring multiple benefits, but planting trees in places where they do not naturally grow can \r\nhave serious environmental impacts, including potentially exacerbating the effects of climate change. Savannas are amongst the \r\necosystems at risk from afforestation programmes. Savannas are grass-dominated, high-diversity ecosystems with endemic species \r\nadapted to high-light environments, herbivory and fire (Staver et al., 2011; Murphy et al., 2016). Interactions between climate change, \r\nelevated CO2 and the disruption of natural disturbance regimes have led to the widespread encroachment of woody plants (Stevens et al., \r\n2016), causing a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure and function with loss of grass and reduced fire frequency (Archibald et al., \r\n2009) and stream flow (Honda and Durigan, 2016) (Sections  2.4.3.5, 2.5.2.5, Box  2.1, 2.5.4, TAble 2.5, Figure  2.11)"


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" Afforestation \r\nexacerbates this degradation (Bremer and Farley, 2010; Veldman et al., 2015; Abreu et al., 2017). Global-scale analyses aimed at identifying \r\ndegraded forest areas suitable for reforestation (Veldman et al., 2019) cannot reliably separate naturally grassy ecosystems with sparse \r\ntree cover from degraded forests, so local information is essential to ensure tree planting is targeted where it can benefit most and avoid \r\nharm. Figure Box 2.2.1 indicates where these issues are most likely to arise."


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"Reforestation options include the natural regeneration of the forest, assisted restoration, enrichment planting, \r\nnative-tree plantations, commercial plantations and directed tree planting in agro-forestry systems and urban areas. \r\nReforestation with native species usually contributes to a wide range of sustainability goals, including biodiversity \r\nrecovery, improved water filtration and groundwater recharge. It can reduce the risks of soil erosion and floods. In \r\ncities, planting trees can support climate change adaptation by reducing the heat of the area, and promote a wide \r\nrange of social benefits such as providing shade and benefitting outdoor recreation. Urban trees can also lower \r\nenergy costs by reducing the demand for conventional sources of cooling like air-conditioning, especially during \r\npeak-demand periods. It is therefore important to recognise that there are a wide range of different planting and \r\nforest management strategies"


id: e2cc0c0e088ad09e406a93b4a535c0c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33181
content:
"Not everywhere is suitable for tree planting. It is particularly problematic in native non-forested ecosystems. These \r\nnatural ecosystems are not deforested and degraded but are instead naturally occurring non-forested ecosystems. \r\nThese areas vary from open grasslands to densely wooded savannas and shrublands. Here, restoring the natural \r\necosystems instead of afforesting them will better contribute to increasing carbon storage and increasing the area's \r\nresilience to climate change and other environmental changes. It is important to remember that, just because a \r\ntree can grow somewhere, it does not mean that it should. These systems are very important in their own right, \r\nstoring carbon in soils, supporting rich biodiversity and providing people with important ecosystem services such as \r\ngrasslands for animal grazing. Planting trees in these areas destroys the ecosystem and threatens the biodiversity \r\nwhich is adapted to these environments"


id: 1bc4ed51d6fd403b2fcb327cc954fd34
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1828
content:
" They can also impact on ecosystem services such as forage for livestock, on \r\nwhich many people rely."


id: 68251dbc5b85cafa955cae00cda79a90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13969
content:
"A challenge for future projections that continues from previous IPCC \r\nreports is accurately characterising and quantifying the interactions \r\nof climate change vs. other, non-climate factors that cause ecological \r\nchange, including LULCC (particularly deforestation, agricultural \r\nexpansion, and urbanisation) and air and water pollution. Interactions \r\ncan be particularly complex for invasive species, pests, pathogens \r\nand human infectious diseases. Modelling of risks at the species level \r\nrequires comprehensive databases of the physiological, life-history, \r\nand reproduction of individual species, and modeling the impact of \r\nchanges in species' compositions requires a mechanistic understanding \r\nof functional traits relevant to ecosystem integrity, functioning and \r\nresilience to climate change. Taxa that particularly lack this basis for \r\nmodel projections include fungi and bacteria"


id: 2ad0c504837486a11505e0f9007a430a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4162
content:
" For numerous plant and \r\nanimal species, research into genotypic and phenotypic diversity as a \r\nsource of ecosystem resilience would inform projections of risk."


id: fdfe29c984305fd2085659d5a45a4f95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37482
content:
"Soil plays a vital role in ecosystem function, is the habitat of a large \r\nnumber of species and is a large carbon store which is currently a \r\nmajor source of GHG emissions; it is therefore a priority for climate \r\nchange research (Hashimoto et  al., 2015). Major uncertainties \r\nremain in our understanding of soil functions. ESMs predict that soil \r\nrespiration will increase with rising temperatures (Friedlingstein et al., \r\n2014). However, there is evidence of acclimation post-increase (Carey \r\net al., 2016) as the opposite response of decrease in respiration with \r\nwarming (Li et al., 2013; Reynolds et al., 2015). Long-term, large-scale \r\nfield observations combined with a better conceptual understanding \r\nof the factors governing soil process responses to climate change \r\nare needed"


id: 3c46d0a8a5d48421c18ed459a085e2ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6849
content:
" A better understanding of plant-water relations is also \r\nnecessary, including the response of plant transpiration to increased \r\nCO2, climate warming and changes in soil moisture and groundwater \r\nelevation."


id: bc26aa2b2044204dee296bb3d86a219d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27174
content:
"Detection and attribution efforts have increased since AR5, but there \r\nare some key impacts of high societal importance that would benefit \r\nfrom more detailed and sophisticated attribution studies. For example, \r\nwhile it is clear that diseases have altered considerably in both wild \r\nanimals and humans in some areas (high confidence in detection), \r\nthere are many regions that are under-studied, and few regions that \r\nprovide robust assessments of the role of climate change, particularly \r\nwith respect to human infectious diseases. While wildfire has been \r\nrobustly linked to climate change in some regions, there are still a \r\nlack of attribution studies in some regions that have experienced large \r\nburns recently, and only one fire impact--the increase of the area \r\nburned by wildfire in western North America in the period 1984-2017 \r\n(Section 2.4.4.2.1) --has been formally attributed to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change"


id: c6b5eb079b5277a3823c2dd5bececff4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28829
content:
" Global changes in soil and freshwater ecosystem \r\ncarbon over time remain uncertainties in global carbon stocks and \r\nchanges (Section  2.4.4.4); due to the physical inability to conduct "


id: 7e8a492752e686b708a55ed11a63263c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17471
content:
"Contributing Authors: Ibidun Adelekan (Nigeria), Johann D. Bell (Australia), Julia Blanchard \r\n(Australia), Jessica Bolin (Australia), William W. L. Cheung (Canada), Andres Cisneros-Montemayor \r\n(Canada/Mexico), Sam Dupont (Sweden/Belgium), Stephanie Dutkiewicz (USA), Thomas Frolicher \r\n(Switzerland), Juan Diego Gaitan-Espitia (Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, China/\r\nColombia), Jorge Garcia Molinos (Japan/Spain), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa), Helen \r\nGurney-Smith (Canada), Marjolijn Haasnoot (The Netherlands), Rebecca Harris (Australia), Stephanie \r\nHenson (UK), Manuel Hidalgo (Spain), Elisabeth Holland (Fiji), Robert Kopp (USA), Rebecca Kordas \r\n(UK/USA), Lester Kwiatkowski (France/UK), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Nadine Le Bris (France), \r\nGoneri Le Cozannet (France), Salvador E"


id: 9239d509aa38b5e5410b950497cb8228
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20527
content:
" Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Cheryl Logan (USA), Felix Mark \r\n(Germany), Yunus Mgaya (Tanzania), Coleen Moloney (South Africa), Aditi Mukherji (Nepal), Norma \r\nPatricia Munoz Sevilla (Mexico), Patrick Nunn (Australia), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany), Gregoire \r\nRandin (Fiji/France/Switzerland), Nussaibah B. Raja (Germany/Mauritius), Anusha Rajkaran (South \r\nAfrica), Anthony J. Richardson (Australia), Stephanie Roe (Philippines/USA), Raquel Ruiz Diaz (Spain), \r\nDiana Salili (Vanuatu), Jean-Baptiste Sallee (France), Kylie Scales (Australia/UK), Daniela Schmidt (UK/\r\nGermany), Michelle Scobie (Trinidad and Tobago), Craig T. Simmons (Australia), Chandni Singh (India), \r\nAimee Slangen (The Netherlands), Seree Supratid (Thailand), Olivier Torres (France), Andrew Yool (UK)"


id: 3366e9dfdd7c3eb146f3f8a16ff8ff43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5504
content:
"Marine heatwaves lasting weeks to several months are exposing \r\nspecies and ecosystems to environmental conditions beyond \r\ntheir tolerance and acclimation limits (very high confidence).\r\nWGI AR6 concluded that marine heatwaves are more frequent (high \r\nconfidence), more intense and longer (medium confidence) since the \r\n1980s, and since at least 2006 very likely attributable to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change. Open-ocean, coastal and shelf-sea ecosystems, \r\nincluding coral reefs, rocky shores, kelp forests, seagrasses, mangroves, \r\nthe Arctic Ocean and semi-enclosed seas, have recently undergone \r\nmass mortalities from marine heatwaves (very high confidence)"


id: cb5b358f3eed93d15d1efc4e36b478cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29545
content:
" \r\nMarine heatwaves, including well-documented events along the \r\nwest coast of North America (2013-2016) and east coast of Australia \r\n(2015-2016, 2016-2017 and 2020), drive abrupt shifts in community \r\ncomposition that may persist for  years (very high confidence), with \r\nassociated biodiversity loss (very high confidence), collapse of regional \r\nfisheries and aquaculture (high confidence) and reduced capacity of \r\nhabitat-forming species to protect shorelines (high confidence). {WGI \r\nAR6 Chapter  9, 3.2.2.1, 3.4.2.1-3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.7, 3.4.2.10, 3.4.2.3, \r\n3.4.3.3.3, 3.5.3}"


id: c9731351aee4ead5dfc9fb4987bb5e22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29254
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ocean and coastal \r\necosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia \r\n(high confidence2\r\n), and this has greatly impacted life in the \r\nocean and along its coasts (very high confidence). Fundamental \r\nchanges in the physical and chemical characteristics of the ocean \r\nacting individually and together are changing the timing of seasonal \r\nactivities (very high confidence), distribution (very high confidence) and \r\nabundance (very high confidence) of oceanic and coastal organisms, \r\nfrom microbes to mammals and from individuals to ecosystems, \r\nin every region. Evidence of these changes is apparent from multi\u0002decadal observations, laboratory studies and mesocosms, as well as \r\nmeta-analyses of published data"


id: 9a0af1179d2805819661fdffc8a9ee4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21762
content:
" Geographic range shifts of marine \r\nspecies generally follow the pace and direction of climate warming \r\n(high confidence): surface warming since the 1950s has shifted \r\nmarine taxa and communities poleward at an average (mean +- very \r\nlikely3\r\n range) of 59.2  +-  15.5 km per decade (high confidence), \r\nwith substantial variation in responses among taxa and regions. \r\nSeasonal events occur 4.3 +- 1.8 d to 7.5 +- 1.5 d earlier per decade \r\namong planktonic organisms (very high confidence) and on average \r\n3 +- 2.1 d earlier per decade for fish (very high confidence). Warming, \r\nacidification and deoxygenation are altering ecological communities \r\nby increasing the spread of physiologically suboptimal conditions \r\nfor many marine fish and invertebrates (medium confidence)"


id: 86942f80aee6ab101e889514371d25f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18710
content:
" These \r\nand other responses have subsequently driven habitat loss (very high \r\nconfidence), population declines (high confidence), increased risks \r\nof species extirpations and extinctions (medium confidence) and \r\nrearrangement of marine food webs (medium to high confidence, \r\ndepending on ecosystem). {3.2, 3.3, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.3.2, 3.4.2.1, \r\n3.4.2.3-3.4.2.8, 3.4.2.10, 3.4.3.1, 3.4.3.2, 3.4.3.3, Box 3.2}"


id: dd159e6a99c6e7f62af916056b8be240
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:15
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32281
content:
"At local to regional scales, climate change worsens the impacts on \r\nmarine life of non-climate anthropogenic drivers, such as habitat \r\ndegradation, marine pollution, overfishing and overharvesting, \r\nnutrient enrichment and introduction of non-indigenous species \r\n(very high confidence). Although impacts  of multiple climate and \r\nnon-climate drivers can be beneficial or neutral to marine life, most \r\nare detrimental (high confidence). Warming exacerbates coastal \r\neutrophication and associated hypoxia, causing 'dead zones'  (very \r\nhigh confidence), which drive severe impacts on coastal and shelf-sea \r\necosystems (very high confidence), including mass mortalities, habitat \r\nreduction and fisheries disruptions (medium confidence). Overfishing \r\nexacerbates effects of multiple climate-induced drivers on predators at \r\nthe top of the marine food chain (medium confidence)"


