# document

id: 5448a3ea750fcf784969797e80571ab4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"Above 2degC global warming, the proportion of freshwater fish species \r\nvulnerable to climate change increases substantially (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 9.19). At 2degC, 36.4% of fish species are projected to be vulnerable \r\nto local or global extinction by 2100, increasing to 56.4% under 4degC \r\nwarming (average of values from (Nyboer et  al., 2019; Barbarossa \r\net al., 2021) (Figure 9.19). Global warming reduces available habitat for \r\nfreshwater species due to reduced precipitation and increased drought \r\nleading to increasing water temperatures above optimal physiological \r\nlimits in floodplains, estuaries, wetlands, ephemeral pools, rivers and \r\nlakes (Dalu et al., 2017; Kalacska et al., 2017; Nyboer and Chapman, \r\n2018). Along the Zambezi River, projected flow reductions could cause \r\na 22% reduction in annual spawning habitat and depletion of food \r\nresources for fry and juvenile fish that could impede fish migration \r\nand reduce stocks (Kangalawe, 2017; Martinez-Capel et  al"


id: 1e88e0415a9c402e18222c8ecf5127d8
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", 2017; \r\nTamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020). More aquatic species will have the \r\ncapacity to cope with 2degC compared to 4degC global warming, with more \r\nnegative effects on physiological performance at 4degC (Dallas, 2016; \r\nPinceel et  al., 2016; Zougmore et  al., 2016; Nyboer and Chapman, \r\n2017; Ross-Gillespie et  al., 2018). Endemic, specialised fish species \r\nwill have a lower capacity to adjust to elevated water temperatures \r\ncompared to hardier generalist fishes (McDonnell and Chapman, 2015; \r\nNyboer and Chapman, 2017; Lapointe et al., 2018; Reizenberg et al., \r\n2019). More work is needed to understand the risk for invertebrates \r\n(Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Cohen et al., 2016), and to understand \r\nthe potential effects of reduced mixing of water and other climate risks \r\non freshwater biodiversity."


id: 892923d792580084e8b493fe3c6f2289
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"(d-e) The mean projected increase in species of freshwater fish vulnerable to local extinction within 10 km grid cells for future global warming. Around a third of fish species are \r\nprojected to be vulnerable to extinction by 2degC global warming. Pixel colour shows the projected percentage of species vulnerable to extinction and agreement between multiple \r\nvulnerability models. In (a), data were obtained from 22 peer-reviewed papers published since 2012 investigating the impacts of projected climate change on African biodiversity. \r\nWhen a paper provided impact projections for several time periods, climate change scenarios or for more than one species, each impact was recorded as an individual biodiversity \r\nimpact projection, resulting in a database of 1165 biodiversity impact projections. Data were initially collected by Manes et al"


id: d0b93832288477060119a449d55d2552
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" (2021) as part of a larger literature review for \r\nCross-Chapter Paper 1 on Biodiversity Hotspots and then expanded to include areas outside of African priority conservation areas (see Table SM 9.4). The literature review was \r\nlimited to peer-reviewed publications that reported quantifiable risks to biodiversity, eliminating non-empirical studies. In (b-c), projections are based on intersecting current \r\nand future modelled species distributions at ~10 km spatial resolution from two recent global assessments of climate change impacts on terrestrial vertebrates (Newbold, 2018; \r\nWarren et al., 2018). In (d-e) projections are based on intersecting future species vulnerabilities from two recent assessments of climate change vulnerability of freshwater fish \r\nspecies (Nyboer et al., 2019; Barbarossa et al., 2021)."


id: ea73d0d3e215767cbec3073680bbb5ce
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"et al., 2017). Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive \r\nspecies spread (high confidence). The area of suitable climate for Lantana \r\ncamara is projected to contract (Taylor et al., 2012) and to expand for \r\nProsopis juliflora (Sintayehu et  al., 2020). Bioclimatic suitability for fall \r\narmyworm, a major threat to maize, is projected to decrease in central \r\nAfrica but expand in southern and west Africa (Zacarias, 2020), and to \r\nexpand for coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) in Uganda and \r\naround Mount Kenya (Jaramillo et  al., 2011). Climate suitability for \r\ntephritid fruit flies is projected to decrease in central Africa (Hill et  al., \r\n2016). Increased water temperature is projected to favour invasive over \r\nlocal freshwater fish populations and shift the range of invasive aquatic \r\nplants in South Africa (Hoveka et al., 2016; Shelton et al., 2018)"


id: 62e82a925a4060c5a822f59d6ec0fe43
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" Alterations \r\nto lake and river connectivity are predicted to modify invasion pathways in \r\nLake Tanganyika and water hyacinth coverage may increase with warmer \r\nwaters in Lake Victoria (Masters and Norgrove, 2010; Plisnier et al., 2018)."


id: fe1a411071e9e3c9f23eded3844d29b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"With global warming >3degC, and with high population growth and \r\nagricultural expansion (SSP3, 2081-2100), 1.2  billion Africans are \r\nprojected to be negatively affected by pollution of drinking water from \r\nreduced water quality regulation by ecosystems and 27 million people \r\naffected by reduced coastal protection by ecosystems (Chaplin-Kramer \r\net al., 2019). The number of people affected reduces to 0.4 billion and \r\n22  million, respectively, under a sustainable development scenario \r\nwith global warming below 2degC (SSP1, 2081-2100). The African \r\ntropical forest carbon sink has been more resilient than Amazonia \r\nto recent warming but may already have peaked, and this service \r\nis predicted to decline with further warming, reducing 14% by the \r\n2030s (Hubau et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020). This declining carbon \r\nstorage may be offset by CO2 fertilization (low confidence) (Martens \r\net  al., 2021)"


id: 5c228ab9eea44d1b6633b097215ff18e
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" Climate change is projected to shift the geographic \r\ndistribution of important human and livestock disease vectors (see \r\nSections 9.8.2.4; 9.10.2). Changes in rainfall seasonality compounded \r\nwith land privatisation and population growth may adversely impact \r\nnomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralists who follow shifting patterns \r\nof greening vegetation (Van Der Ree et al., 2015)."


id: 9874680b157dc690ef2511a3cd90629d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa (high \r\nconfidence). The 2015-2018 Cape Town drought caused severe water \r\nrestrictions, reducing tourist arrivals and spending with associated job \r\nlosses (Dube et al., 2020). Human-caused climate change increased the \r\nlikelihood of the reduced rainfall that caused the drought by a factor \r\nof three (Otto et al., 2018)(Pascale et al., 2020). Extreme heat days \r\nhave increased across South African national parks since the 1990s \r\n(van Wilgen et  al., 2016). This reduces animal mobility, decreasing \r\nanimal viewing opportunities (Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Tourists and \r\nemployees also fear heat stress (Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Visitors \r\nto South Africa's national parks preferred to visit in cool-to-mild \r\ntemperatures (Coldrey and Turpie, 2020)"


id: 5a9ba022311efe17e96f84340086e930
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" Extreme weather conditions \r\ndisrupted tourist activities and damaged infrastructure at Victoria \r\nFalls, Hwange National Park, Kruger National Park and the Okavango \r\nDelta (Dube et  al., 2018; Dube and Nhamo, 2018; Mushawemhuka \r\net al., 2018; Dube and Nhamo, 2020). Rainfall variability and drought \r\nalter wildlife migrations, affecting tourist visits to the Serengeti \r\n(Kilungu et al., 2017). Reduced tourism decreases revenue for national \r\npark management (van Wilgen et al., 2016)."


id: b0ed3208c0ea9e2d24531e282591840e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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"Kilimanjaro National Park (Kilungu et al., 2019). Woody plant expansion \r\nin savanna and grasslands reduce tourist's game viewing experience and \r\nnegatively impact conservation revenues (Gray Emma and Bond William, \r\n2013; Arbieu et  al., 2017). Visitation rates to South African national \r\nparks, based on mean monthly temperatures, are projected to decline \r\n4% with 2degC global warming (Coldrey and Turpie, 2020). Sea level rise \r\nand increased intensity of storms is projected to reduce beach tourism \r\ndue to beach erosion (Grant, 2015; Amusan and Olutola, 2017). Tourism \r\nin the Victoria Falls, Okavango and Chobe hydrological systems may be \r\nnegatively affected by heat and increased variability of rainfall and river \r\nflow (Saarinen et al., 2012; Dube and Nhamo, 2019)"


id: 48c664bd7a7ba1afd2f180b66c1e689a
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" Increased extreme \r\nheat will increase air turbulence and weight restrictions on aircraft, \r\nwhich could make air travel more uncomfortable and expensive to \r\nAfrican destinations (Coffel and Horton, 2015; Dube and Nhamo, 2019)."


id: 89abb224ef05fa68b8e730fde83f9c2
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"and Bro-Jorgensen, 2016; Smith et  al., 2016; Phipps et  al., 2017). \r\nSpecies ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is \r\nincreasingly impaired by land transformation and fencing, which also \r\nimpact seasonal wildlife migrations (Lovschal et al., 2017; Sloan et al., \r\n2017). On land, only 0.5% of the African protected area network is \r\nconnected through low-impact landscapes (Ward et al., 2020). Linear \r\ntransport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, pipelines) and fencing \r\nfrom proposed 'development corridors' are projected to bisect over 400 \r\nprotected areas and degrade around 1800 more (Laurance et al., 2015). \r\nClimate change could increase human-wildlife conflict as resultant \r\nresource shortages cause communities to move into protected areas \r\nfor harvesting or livestock grazing, or wildlife to move out of protected \r\nareas and into contact with people (Mukeka et al., 2018; Kupika et al., \r\n2019; Hambira et al., 2020). See Section 9.6"


id: 3fdf8763700c5cd5484776f4c968868d
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"Yet many areas targeted by AFR100 erroneously mark Africa's open ecosystems (grasslands, savannas, shrublands) as degraded and \r\nsuitable for afforestation (Figure Box 9.3.1; (Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019) (high confidence). These ecosystems are not degraded, \r\nthey are ancient ecosystems that evolved in the presence of disturbances (fire/herbivory) (Maurin et al., 2014; Bond and Zaloumis, 2016; \r\nCharles-Dominique et al., 2016). Afforestation prioritises carbon sequestration at the cost of biodiversity and other ecosystem services \r\n(Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019). Furthermore, it remains uncertain how much carbon can be sequestered as, compared to grassy \r\necosystems, afforestation can reduce belowground carbon stores and increase aboveground carbon loss to fire and drought (Yang et al., \r\n2019; Wigley et al., 2020b; Nunez et al., 2021). Thus, afforested areas may store less carbon than ecosystems they replace (Dass et al., \r\n2018; Heilmayr et al., 2020)"


id: 3e51b94e6eafde5098bac6e5968c21a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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" Afforestation would reduce livestock forage, ecotourism potential and water availability (Gray Emma and \r\nBond William, 2013; Anadon et al., 2014; Cao et al., 2016; Stafford et al., 2017; Du et al., 2021), and may reduce albedo thereby increasing \r\nwarming (Bright et al., 2015; Baldocchi and Penuelas, 2019)."


id: 85b11068c192315ffee07b761a83b4fe
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"Observed climate changes in Africa (see Section 9.5) have led to changes \r\nin river flow and runoff (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Wolski et al., \r\n2014) and high fluctuations in lake levels (high confidence) (Natugonza \r\net al., 2016; Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016; Gownaris et al., 2018). Shallow \r\nlakes respond dramatically to hydrological changes, for example, Lake \r\nChilwa has dried up completely nine times in the last century (Wilson, \r\n2014), while Lake Chad shrunk by 90% between 1963 and 2000 (Gao \r\net al., 2011). However, recent analyses indicate that Lake Chad's water \r\nlevels have been stable since 2000 due to infilling from groundwater \r\nresources (Buma et  al., 2018; Pham-Duc et  al., 2020). Other factors \r\nsuch as deforestation and increased water use in upstream tributaries \r\nalso contribute to lake shrinking (Mvula et al., 2014)"


id: 93e9d03bd31725feacf4b9390e94f8b3
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" Water levels in \r\nKenya's mostly shallow rift lakes have been rising since 2010, with some \r\nexceeding historical record high levels (Schagerl and Renaut, 2016; \r\nOlago et al., 2021). The recent 10-year rising trend is partly attributed to \r\nincreased rainfall and changing land uses (Onywere et al., 2012; Olago \r\net  al., 2021). Changes in water level fluctuations of 13 African lakes \r\nhave been positively correlated with primary and overall production \r\n(Gownaris et  al., 2018), and will have important consequences for \r\nfreshwater ecosystems and related ecosystem goods and services (see \r\nSections  9.6.1.3; 9.8.5). Other effects of observed climate changes in \r\nAfrica include higher episodic groundwater recharge, particularly in \r\ndrylands, from heavy rainfall events that are in some cases related to \r\nENSO and the IOD (Taylor et al., 2013; Fischer and Knutti, 2016; Cuthbert \r\net  al., 2019; Kotchoni et  al., 2019; Myhre et  al"


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", 2019), reduced soil \r\nmoisture, more frequent and intense floods, more persistent and frequent \r\ndroughts (Douville et al., 2021) and the steady decline and projected \r\ndisappearance by 2040 of African tropical glaciers (see Section9.5.9)."


id: a07230d5f9c246f9ee64c971e332dc37
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"A substantial media campaign was launched to inform residents about the severity of the drought and urge water conservation (Booysen \r\net al., 2019; Hellberg, 2019; Ouweneel et al., 2020). Together with stringent demand management through higher water tariffs, this \r\ncommunication campaign played an important role in reducing consumption from 540 to 280 litres per household per day (Booysen et al., \r\n2019; Simpson et al., 2019a). Revenue from water sales contributes 14% of Cape Town's total revenue, making it the third-largest source \r\nof 'own' revenue for the city (Simpson et al., 2019b). However, with an unprecedented reduction in water use, the municipal budget was \r\nundermined (Simpson et al., 2020b). Collecting less revenue created a financial shock as the city struggled to recover operating finance, \r\neven while new capital requirements were needed for the development of expensive new water supply projects (Simpson et al., 2019b)"


id: a1be94ce405844e54fdb66448e65193a
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" \r\nThis financial shock was compounded by the economic stress of poor agricultural and tourism performance brought about by the drought \r\n(Shepherd, 2019; Simpson et al., 2021b). As wealthy residents invested in private, off-grid water supplies, the risk of reduced municipal \r\nrevenue collections from newly off-grid households aggregated with the risk of reduced tourism, increasing the risk to the reputation \r\nof the incumbent administration (Simpson et al., 2021b). This demonstrates how a population cohort with a high response capability to \r\nwater scarcity can reduce risk while simultaneously increasing risks to the municipality and its capacity to provide water to vulnerable \r\nresidents (Simpson et al., 2020b). Given that city populations in Africa pay 5-7 times more for water than the average price paid in the \r\nUSA or Europe (Adamu and Ndi, 2017; Lwasa et al., 2018), municipal finance needs to delink operating revenue from potential climate \r\nshocks (see Box 8.6)."


id: a6f3a8fefeb37d28442f5ba984200a81
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"Defining a sustainable pumping rate for the Makutapora wellfield is complicated by the variable and episodic nature of groundwater \r\nreplenishment in this dryland environment. For example, groundwater recharge during the 1997/1998 El Nino event, the strongest El Nino \r\nevent of the 20th century, accounted for nearly 20% of all of the recharge received from 1955-2010 (Taylor et al., 2013), highlighting the \r\nvital role interannual groundwater storage plays in enabling adaptation to climate variability and change in drylands. The disproportionate \r\ncontribution of intense seasonal rainfalls to the replenishment of the Makutapora wellfield, consistent with observations from across \r\nsub-Saharan Africa (Cuthbert et al., 2019), suggests that groundwater in drylands are currently naturally resilient to climate change. \r\nHowever, it remains unclear whether climate change will strengthen or weaken the influence of ENSO and IOD on rainfall (Brown et al"


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"In west Africa, significant spatial variability in river flow is projected in \r\nthe upper reaches of several rivers, with no clear pattern overall (Roudier \r\net al., 2014) and large uncertainties in estimations of change in runoff \r\n(Roudier et al., 2014; Bodian et al., 2018). In some higher altitude regions, \r\nlike the Niger Inland Delta in west Africa, river flows and water levels are \r\nexpected to increase (medium confidence) (Aich et al., 2014; Thompson \r\net al., 2017). In the Lower Niger Basin, combined average annual rainfall \r\nand erosivity for all the climatic models in all scenarios shows increasing \r\nrainfall amounts are projected to result in an increasing average change \r\nin rainfall-runoff erosivity of about 14%, 19% and 24% for the 2030s, \r\n2050s and 2070s, with concomitant increase in soil loss of 12%, 19% \r\nand 21% (Amanambu et al., 2019)"


id: 598b78432c70a4318df7bce56e280e79
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" In the Volta River system, increasing \r\nwet season river flows (+36% by 2090s) and Volta lake outflow (+5% \r\nby 2090s) are anticipated under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (Awotwi \r\nA et al., 2015; Jin et al., 2018). In the Volta River basin, compared to \r\n1976-2005, drought events are projected to increase by 1.2 events per \r\ndecade at around 2degC to 1.6 events per decade at around 2.5degC global \r\nwarming, and drought area extent is projected to increase by 24% to \r\n34% (Oguntunde et  al., 2017). In central Africa, runoff in the Congo \r\nriver system may increase by up to 50% (RCP8.5), especially in the wet \r\nseason, enhancing flood risks in the entire Congo Basin, particularly \r\nin the central and western parts (CSC, 2013). Average river flows are \r\nexpected to increase in most parts of central Africa, with expected \r\nincreases in total potential hydropower production (Ludwig et al., 2013), \r\nbut see Box 9.5."


id: 30c984622a13ba13c823c7fa1e34ff64
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"However, between 2010-2020 more people across Africa have been \r\nimpacted by floods (e.g., related to Cyclone Idai in March 2019) \r\ncompared to droughts (Lumbroso, 2020). Coastal cities are vulnerable \r\nto floods related to rainfall and sea level rise (Musa et al., 2014), as \r\nexemplified by the flood disasters experienced in the Niger delta in 2012 \r\nwhich displaced more than 3  million people and destroyed schools, \r\nclinics, markets and electricity installations (Amadi and Ogonor, 2015). \r\nFrom 2000-2015, the proportion of people exposed to floods grew by \r\n20-24%, mostly in Africa and Asia, with Mozambique and multiple \r\ncountries in West Africa estimated to have had the proportion of their \r\npopulations exposed to flooding increase by more than 50% (Tellman \r\net  al., 2021) and these numbers will increase under climate change. \r\nSectoral impacts from flooding within Africa and globally are further \r\nelaborated on in Sections 9.8.2 and 9.8.5.1, Table 9.3 and Chapter 4 \r\nSection 4.3"


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"Changes in the amplitude, timing and frequency of extreme events \r\nsuch as droughts and floods will continue to affect lake levels, rates of \r\nriver discharge and runoff and groundwater recharge (high confidence) \r\n(Gownaris et al., 2016; Darko et al., 2019), but with disparate effects \r\nat regional, basin and sub-basin scales, and at seasonal, annual and \r\nlonger timescales. The increased frequency of extreme rainfall events \r\nunder climate change (Myhre et  al., 2019) is projected to amplify \r\ngroundwater recharge in drylands (Jasechko and Taylor, 2015; Cuthbert \r\net al., 2019). However, declining trends in rainfall and snowfall in some \r\nareas of north Africa (Donat et al., 2014b) are projected to continue \r\nin a warming world (Seif-Ennasr et al., 2016), restricting groundwater \r\nrecharge from meltwater flows, exacerbating the salinisation and \r\ndepletion of groundwater (Hamed et al., 2018) and increasing the risk \r\nof reduced soil moisture (Petrova et  al"


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"The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus explicitly recognises the strong \r\ninterdependencies of these three sectors and their high levels of \r\nexposure to climate change (Zografos et al., 2014; Dottori et al., 2018; \r\nsee Box 9.5). With increasing societal demands on more variable water \r\nresources under climate change, an intensification of WEF competition \r\nand trade-offs are projected (D'Odorico et  al., 2018; Dottori et  al., \r\n2018). Other interacting factors, for example, the increasing number \r\nof transnational investments in land resources can lead to localised \r\nincreased competition for water resources (Messerli et  al., 2014; \r\nBreu et  al., 2016; Chiarelli et  al., 2016). Understanding such nexus \r\ninterlinkages can help characterise risks to water resource security, \r\nidentify co-benefits and clarify the range of multi-sectoral actors \r\ninvolved in and affected by development decisions (Kyriakarakos et al., \r\n2020)"


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" Major barriers and entry points for greater integration include \r\ncoordination of horizontal policy and integration of climate change \r\nadaptation actions (England et al., 2018), capturing the scarcity values \r\nof water and energy embedded in food/energy products (Allan et al., \r\n2015), and inclusion of community-based organisations such as \r\nwater resource user associations (Villamayor-Tomas et al., 2015) and \r\nagricultural cooperatives (Kyriakarakos et al., 2020)."


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"The literature shows significant gender-differentiated vulnerability and \r\nintersectional vulnerability to climate change impacts on water in Africa \r\n(Fleifel et al., 2019; Grasham et al., 2019; Mackinnon et al., 2019; Dickin \r\net al., 2020; Lund Schlamovitz and Becker, 2020), although studies are \r\ngenerally lacking in northern Africa (Daoud, 2021). Women and girls \r\nare, in most cases, more impacted than men and boys by customary \r\nwater practices, as adult females are the primary water collectors \r\n(46% in Liberia to 90% in Cote d'Ivoire), while more female than male \r\nchildren are associated with water collection (62% compared with \r\n38%, respectively) (Graham et al., 2016). Women and girls face barriers \r\ntoward accessing basic sanitation and hygiene resources, and 71% of \r\nstudies reported a negative health outcome, reflecting a water-gender-\r\nhealth nexus (Pouramin et al., 2020)"


id: b003fc385f2aca06f3fced041baa95fe
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content:
" These differential vulnerabilities are \r\ncrucial for informing adaptation, but are still relatively under-researched, \r\nmore so for the urban poor than rural communities (Grasham et  al., \r\n2019; Mackinnon et al., 2019; Lund Schlamovitz and Becker, 2020)."


id: ab06a42783fd1e8982638dae91171919
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
"While natural variability in the hydrological cycle has always been \r\nconsidered by water resources planners and engineers (Muller \r\nSchmied et al., 2016; Muller, 2018), many countries will have to take \r\ninto consideration the range of historically unprecedented extremes \r\nexpected in the future. Increasingly, the provision of urban water \r\nsecurity is dependent on the functioning of complex bulk water \r\ninfrastructure systems consisting of dams, inter-basin transfers, \r\npipelines, pump stations, water treatment plants and distribution \r\nnetworks (McDonald et al., 2014). Risk-based studies on the potential \r\nclimate change risks for water security show that there are benefits \r\nwhen risks are reduced at the tails of the distribution--floods and \r\ndroughts--even if there is little benefit in terms of changes in the \r\nmean (Arndt et  al., 2019)"


id: f0ffa82fb5652eead29a2b5ff4cbc74e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 35411
content:
" When risk is taken into account in an \r\nintegrated (national) bulk water infrastructure supply system, the \r\noverall impact of climate change on the average availability of water to \r\nmeet current and future demands is significantly reduced (Cullis et al., \r\n2015). Further, stemming leakages and enhancing efficiency through \r\ntechnology and management improvements is important in building \r\nclimate-resilient water conveyance systems (UN Environment, 2019). \r\nAfrican cities could leap-frog through the development phases to "


id: cac376ec2c3147ca7d27158a549c7a4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
"The interdependencies in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, coupled with its high exposure to climate change, amplify WEF risks. Risks \r\ncan be transmitted from one WEF sector to the other two with cascading risks to human health, cities and infrastructure (Conway et al., \r\n2015; Mpandeli et al., 2018; Nhamo et al., 2018; Yang and Wi, 2018; Ding et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2021b). For example, increasing \r\ndemand for water for agricultural and energy production is driving an increasing competition over water resources between food and \r\nenergy industries which, among other effects, compromises the nutritional needs of local populations (Zografos et al., 2014; Dottori et al., \r\n2018)"


id: b54321db20160e85ae2845626a9bd2d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
" Drought events, such as in southern Africa during the 2015/16 El Nino, have been associated with major multi-sector impacts on \r\nfood security (over 40 million food-insecure people and extensive livestock deaths) and reduced energy security through disruption to \r\nhydropower generation (associated in Zambia with the lowest rate of real economic growth in over 15 years) (Nhamo et al., 2018). The \r\nWEF nexus of the Nile and Zambezi river basins, which include many of Africa's largest existing hydropower dams, have received the \r\nmost attention. In these two regions, where socioeconomic development is already driving up demand, projections indicate that water \r\nscarcity may be exacerbated by drying (Munday and Washington, 2019) and increased flow variability (Siam and Eltahir, 2017). However, \r\nfor Africa more widely, very few studies fully integrate all three WEF nexus sectors and rarely include an explicit focus on climate change"


id: a2b64b0ea73ddf790e8871981005fca6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
"\r\nIn Africa, the climate risks that the water, energy and food sectors will face in the future are heavily influenced by the infrastructure \r\ndecisions that governments make in the near term. The AU's Programme for Infrastructure Development (PIDA), along with other national \r\nenergy plans (jointly referred to as PIDA+), aim to increase hydropower capacity nearly six-fold, irrigation capacity by over 60% and \r\nhydropower storage capacity by over 80% in major African river basins (Cervigni et al., 2015). The vast majority of hydropower additions \r\nwould occur in the Congo, Niger, Nile and Zambezi river basins, and the majority of the irrigation capacity additions would occur in the \r\nNiger, Nile and Zambezi River basins (Figure Box 9.5.1; Huber-Lee et al., 2015).\r\nClimate change risk to the productivity of this rapidly expanding hydropower and irrigation infrastructure compound the overall WEF \r\nnexus risk"


id: 6772046ffb99f9c62d02ab9d87b7cfc3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 13862
content:
" Future levels of rainfall, evaporation and runoff will have a substantial impact on hydropower and irrigation production. \r\nClimate models disagree on whether climates will become wetter or dryer in each river basin. Cervigni et al. (2015) modelled revenues \r\nfrom the sale of hydroelectricity and irrigated crops in major African river basins under different climate scenarios between 2015 and \r\n2050 (Figure Box 9.5.1). The study found that hydropower revenues in the driest climate scenarios could be 58% lower in the Zambezi \r\nRiver basin, 30% lower in the Orange basin and 7% lower in the Congo basin relative to a scenario with current climate conditions. \r\nHydropower revenues in the wettest climate scenario could be more than 20% higher in the Zambezi river basin and 50% higher in the \r\nOrange basin"


id: 4ff6e7481bb576a053d57f477bd4195e
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content:
" The biggest risk to the production of irrigated crops is in the eastern Nile where irrigation revenue could be 34% lower in \r\nthe driest scenario and 11% higher in the wettest than in a scenario without climate change (Cervigni et al., 2015)."


id: e197b5315123c07f97db81de4b0ba7ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 32986
content:
"Studies have used the river basin as a unit of analysis and adopted sophisticated techniques to assess and present trade-offs between \r\ncompeting uses. For example, Yang and Wi (2018) consider the WEF nexus in the Great Ruaha tributary of the Rufiji River in Tanzania \r\nmotivated by an observed decrease in streamflow during the dry season in the 1990s, but without an explicit focus on climate. Yang and \r\nWi (2018) show sensitivity of water availability for irrigated crop production to warming, and sensitivity of hydropower generation and \r\necosystem health to changes in precipitation and dam development. Understanding of WEF nexus interlinkages can help characterise \r\nrisks and identify entry points and the relevant institutional levels for cross-sectoral climate change adaptation actions (England et al., \r\n2018)"


id: 9ec2501313ddb108a241513c31cc0d6f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
" An integrated response can be enhanced through the inclusion of community-based organisations, such as water resource user \r\nassociations and the wide range of other multi-sectoral actors involved in and affected by development decisions. Capturing the scarcity \r\nvalues of water and energy embedded in food and other products can help identify the co-benefits and costs of integrated adaptation \r\n(Allan et al., 2015)."


id: ed697387a066561e58929bd836cce87f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 34826
content:
"(d, f) The bar graphs show the forecast revenues for hydropower and irrigation infrastructure in each river basin under 121 different climate scenarios from 2015-2050, \r\nhighlighting risk to revenues from high variability in river discharge due to climate change. In river basins with a wide range of potential river flow outcomes due to climate \r\nchange, such as the eastern Nile and Zambezi, there is substantial uncertainty around revenue forecasts and potential for large reductions in future revenue. Hydropower \r\nrevenues refer to net present value of hydroelectricity produced in each river basin over the period 2015-2050, and irrigation revenues refer to the crop revenues per \r\nhectare for each crop multiplied by the number of hectares of each crop across the basin. All figures are estimates of the net present value of revenues, using a discount \r\nrate of 3%, and are in 2012 USD billions"


id: 4fc0c04378c420603a8b01946dd51c76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 9988
content:
" The 121 potential climate futures were derived using different General Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration \r\nPathways (RCPs), and downscaling methods. IPCC AR4 and AR5 provided data from 22 and 23 GCMs, respectively. These were evaluated across two or three emissions \r\npathways, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation method of downscaling was then used to derive 99 potential climate futures. An \r\nadditional 22 climate futures (11 GCMs driven by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways) were produced using the Empirical Statistical Downscaling Methods \r\ndeveloped at the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. Data sourced from Cervigni et al. (2015)."


id: d8fe390f9e11ff1d437922478c2290c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 31647
content:
"about water resources, including location, quality and storage methods \r\nbecause they are primarily responsible for the management of water for \r\nhousehold water supply, sanitation and health, and for productive uses \r\nin subsistence agriculture (UN-Water, 2006). As gender-differentiated \r\nrelationships are complex, adaptation should take into account \r\nintersectional differences such as homeownership, employment and \r\nage (Harris et al., 2016), educational, infrastructural and programmatic \r\ninterventions (Pouramin et al., 2020), aspects of protection and safety \r\n(Mackinnon et al., 2019), barriers to adaptation and gendered differences \r\nin the choice of adaptation measures (Mersha and Van Laerhoven, 2016), \r\nthe complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations \r\n(Djoudi et al., 2016; Rao et al., 2017), and inclusion and empowerment \r\nof women in the management of environmental resources (Makina and \r\nMoyo, 2016)"


id: 8a07cf398f03a8bebd21b9b8f3e79ba4
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vector_id: 19242
content:
" Incorporation of gender and water inequities into climate \r\nchange adaptation would have a significant impact on achieving the \r\nSDGs (particularly 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6), while failure to incorporate gender \r\nwill undermine adaptation efforts (Bunce and Ford, 2015; Fleifel et al., \r\n2019; Pouramin et al., 2020)."


id: a41c54d9302d7e6243f6cfc913e561d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 23381
content:
"Climate change is projected to increase dependence upon groundwater \r\nwithdrawals in most parts of Africa as an adaptive strategy to amplified \r\nvariability in precipitation and surface water resources, highlighting \r\nthe need for conjunctive surface-groundwater management and \r\nrainwater harvesting (Cobbing and Hiller, 2019; Taylor et  al., 2019). \r\nAlternative water supply options such as desalination, managed \r\naquifer recharge, stormwater harvesting and re-use (direct and \r\nindirect, potable and non-potable), all require significant amounts of \r\nenergy and are complex to operate and maintain. A failure to provide a \r\nsource of reliable energy and the capacity to implement, maintain and \r\noperate these systems is a significant contributor to water scarcity risks \r\nin Africa (Muller and Wright, 2016)"


id: 55a9e5088de401a8c2b3c57dcd04156
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 10960
content:
" Soft adaptation options include \r\nincreasing water use efficiency, changing agricultural practices, more \r\nappropriate water pricing (Olmstead, 2014) and enhancing capacity \r\nto tackle groundwater overexploitation (Kuper et  al., 2016), among \r\nothers (see Section 9.10.2.4 and Chapter 4 Sections 4.6 and 4.7)."


id: 875722d468b034f72078f280055066be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 18836
content:
"Ideally, a systems approach (Ericksen, 2008; Rosenzweig et al., 2020) \r\ncould be used to assess how global environmental changes affect \r\nthe food sector in Africa, emphasising the complex interactions that \r\nexist within the components of the food supply system, including its \r\nenabling socioeconomic and biophysical environment (Ingram, 2011; \r\nForan et  al., 2014; Tendall et  al., 2015), and how food is connected \r\nto other critical systems such as energy, water and transportation \r\n(Albrecht et al., 2018; see Box 9.5). Production will not be the only \r\naspect of food security that is impacted by climate change. Processing, \r\nstorage, distribution and consumption will also be affected. Access \r\nto healthy and adequate food in the face of climate change requires \r\nresilience across these components of the food system (Adenle et al., \r\n2017). However, most studies on climate change impacts on food in \r\nAfrica are heavily focused on production only"


id: 2198b5353a4fdc78827abd7b714c301b
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content:
"Climate change is projected to reduce sorghum yields in west Africa \r\n(Figure  9.23). For example, across the west African Sahel savanna \r\nsorghum yields are projected to decline on average 2% at 1.5degC and 5% \r\nat 2degC global warming (Faye et al., 2018). For coffee and tea in eastern \r\nAfrica, olives in Algeria and sunflower in Botswana and Morocco, \r\nstudies indicate mostly negative impacts on production systems. \r\nFor example, in Kenya, compared to 2000, optimal habitat for tea \r\nproduction is projected to decrease in area by 27% with yields declining \r\n10% for global warming of 1.8-1.9degC, although yield declines may be \r\nreduced at higher levels of warming (Beringer et al., 2020; Jayasinghe \r\nand Kumar, 2020; Rigden et al., 2020). Suitable area for tea production \r\nmay reduce by half in Uganda (Eitzinger et al., 2011; Laderach et al., \r\n2013). In east Africa, the coffee-growing area is projected to shift up \r\nin elevation with suitability decreasing 10-30% between 1"


id: f1339e3426b05030a7a034d2ac893649
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 35454
content:
"Figure 9.22 |  Projected yield changes for major staple crops in Africa due to climate change (compared to 2005 yield levels). Projected impacts are grouped \r\nby projected global warming levels. Boxplots show a synthesis of projected staple crop impacts, with and without adaptation measures (e.g., planting date, cultivar, tillage or \r\nirrigation). On average crop yields are projected to decrease with increasing global warming across staple crops in Africa. The overall adaptation potential to offset yield losses \r\nacross Africa for rice, maize and wheat reduces with increasing global warming. On average, in projections including adaptation options, yield losses in the median case are reduced \r\nfrom -33% to -10% of 2005 levels at 2degC of global warming and from -46% to -23% at 4degC. Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global \r\nmean temperature of 1850-1900"


id: e168cd4cf54ff0a64b8b15d2f445c4b0
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content:
" Data are a synthesis across 35 studies for nearly 1040 locations and cases of projected impacts for regions of Africa for maize, rice and wheat \r\n(Hasegawa et al., 2021; Table SM9.5)."


id: 842ed06e0fae01a2d27c67c07f1f6e47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 18335
content:
"of drinking water, direct heat stress and the prevalence of livestock \r\ndiseases (Nardone et al., 2010; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Godde et al., \r\n2021). Climate change is projected to negatively affect fodder availability \r\n(Briske, 2017) because overall rangeland net primary productivity (NPP) \r\nby 2050 is projected to decrease 42% under RCP4.5 (2degC global warming) \r\nand 46% under RCP8.5 (2.4degC global warming) for western sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica, compared to a 2000 baseline (Boone et al., 2018). NPP is also \r\nprojected to decline by 37% in southern Africa, 32% in north Africa \r\nand 5% in both east Africa and central Africa by 2050 under RCP8.5 \r\n(2.4degC global warming) (Boone et al., 2018). For example, in Zimbabwe \r\nby 2040-2070, net revenues from livestock production, compared to a \r\n2011 survey, are projected to decline by 8-32% under RCP4.5 for 2degC \r\nand 11-43% under RCP8.5 for 2.7degC global warming due to a decline in \r\nfodder availability (Descheemaeker et al., 2018)"


id: 9a93c5bee995847d40b56f85e0dfe61f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21852
content:
" The available literature \r\ndoes not comprehensively capture the economic implications of climate\u0002related impacts on livestock production across Africa."


id: ede389e2aea64d0169ba4e4c00ec2b94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34899
content:
"The focus of projected climate change impacts has been almost \r\nexclusively on agricultural production, yet climate change could \r\nhave substantial impacts on the distribution and availability of wild\u0002harvested food plants in Africa (Wessels et al., 2021). Non-cultivated \r\nspecies in Africa are vulnerable to current and future climate changes, \r\nwith widespread changes in woody plant cover already observed \r\n(see Section  9.6.1.1). Evidence about the impacts of climate change \r\non individual wild food species is less consistent. Communities in the \r\nKalahari (Crate and Nuttall, 2016) and Zimbabwe (Sango and Godwell, \r\n2015) report growing scarcity of wild foods (such as wild meat and fruit) \r\nperceived to be, at least in part, due to drought and climate change. \r\nShea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) nuts provide fats and oils for the diets of \r\nmany rural populations in west Africa"


id: 14d6a4ca3b0951680ed7b52846f59c0
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" In Burkina Faso, global warming \r\nof 3degC is projected to reduce area of suitable habitat for the shea tree \r\nby 14% (Dimobe et al., 2020). In southern Africa, 40% of native, wild\u0002harvested food plant species are projected to decrease in geographic \r\nrange extent at 1.7degC global warming with range reductions for 66% of \r\nspecies projected for 3.5degC (Wessels et al., 2021)."


id: 8cbb4cd842043d14fc4b87b39441f10f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 19658
content:
"Climate change is projected to threaten water availability for \r\nlivestock. Droughts in Africa have become more intense, frequent and \r\nwidespread in the last 50 years (Masih et al., 2014), and progressive \r\nincrease in droughts between 3- and 20-fold under climate change \r\nup to 3degC of warming are projected for most of Africa (Section 9.5). \r\nIn the Klela basin in Mali by 2050, groundwater recharge is projected \r\nto decline by 49% and groundwater storage by 24% under RCP8.5 \r\n(2.4degC global warming) compared to the 2006 baseline (Toure et al., \r\n2017). Water availability for livestock during drought is a major \r\nconcern for many African pastoralists including but not limited to those \r\nin Zimbabwe (Dzavo et al., 2019) and Nigeria (Ayanlade and Ojebisi, \r\n2019). Increased livestock mortality and livestock price shocks have \r\nbeen associated with droughts in Africa, as well as being a potential \r\npathway for climate-related conflict (Catley et al., 2014; see Box 9"


id: 16eb3d059d0fcd50f4dc397770c8f467
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vector_id: 1132
content:
"Advances in remote sensing and climate analysis tools have allowed \r\nthe development of weather index insurance products as a potential \r\nadaptation option, with Malawi and Ethiopia being early testbeds \r\n(Tadesse et al., 2015, Section 9.11.4). These pilot projects were initially \r\nsponsored by NGOs, but in the last decade, the private sector has \r\nbecome more active in this sector. The Ghana Agricultural Insurance \r\nPool and Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE) in Kenya, \r\nTanzania and Rwanda are examples. Despite the potential for weather \r\nindex insurance, uptake by smallholder farmers in Africa remains \r\nconstrained by several factors. These include the failure to capture \r\nactual crop loss as in traditional crop insurance products, as well \r\nas the inability of poor farmers to pay premiums (Elum et al., 2017; \r\nWeber, 2019). Weather index insurance could be part of a wider \r\nportfolio of risk mitigation services offered to farmers (Tadesse et al., \r\n2015; Weber, 2019)"


id: c6153dc62f4f6952e132171f327cbf4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28743
content:
" Strategic partnerships between key players (e.g., \r\ncredit institutions, policymakers, meteorologists, farmer associations, \r\nextension services, NGOs) are needed to develop better products and \r\nbuild capacity among smallholder farmers to engage more beneficially \r\nwith weather index insurance (Singh et al., 2018; Tesfaye et al., 2019)."


id: 711ff3549c5de5bc4194157ba62ed27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15430
content:
"However, compared to temperate regions, risks of adaptation shortfalls--\r\nthat is climate change impacts even after adaptation--are generally \r\ngreater for current agricultural conditions across much of Africa (tropical, \r\narid and semi-arid) (Sun et al., 2019). The overall adaptation potential \r\nto offset yield losses across Africa for rice, maize and wheat reduces \r\nwith increasing global warming. On average, in projections including \r\nadaptation options, yield losses, in the median case, are reduced from \r\n-33% to -10% of 2005 levels at 2degC of global warming and from -46% \r\nto -23% at 4degC, but estimates vary widely (Figure 9.22; Hasegawa et al., \r\n2021). Across Africa, the risks of no available genetic varieties of maize \r\nfor growing season adaptation are higher for east Africa and southern \r\nAfrica than for central or west Africa (Zabel et al., 2021)"


id: 9af002dd808438bdfdd692f5f2d13331
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21909
content:
" To keep pace \r\nwith expected rates of climate change, crop breeding, development \r\nand adoption must accelerate to meet the challenge (Challinor et  al., \r\n2016). Regional modelling has shown very little efficacy for late sowing, \r\nintensification of seeding density and fertilizers, water harvesting and \r\nother measures for cereals in west Africa at 2degC of global warming \r\n(Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Guan et al., 2017). Historical climate change \r\nadaptation by crop migration has been shown in some cases (Sloat et al., \r\n2020) but poses risks to biodiversity and water resources, and this option \r\nmay be limited for maize in Africa by suitable climate shifting completely \r\nacross national borders and available land at the edges of the continent \r\n(Franke et al., 2021). More research is required to evaluate the potential \r\neffectiveness and limits of adaptation options in African agriculture under \r\nfuture climate change (see Chapter 5 Section 5.4.4 for more details)."


id: 5e7ebb4abd1428ea6217aca5c79096e8
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vector_id: 12404
content:
"Climate change already poses a significant threat to marine and \r\nfreshwater fisheries and aquaculture in Africa (Blasiak et  al., 2017; \r\nHarrod et  al., 2018a). Severe (>30%) coral bleaching has impacted \r\n~80% of major reef areas in the western Indian Ocean and Red Sea \r\nalong Africa's eastern coast (Hughes et  al., 2018). Biological effects \r\n(e.g., changes in primary production, fish distribution) have also \r\noccurred (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). Range shifts in marine fish species \r\ncan exacerbate boundary conflicts among fisher communities (Penney \r\net al., 2017; Belhabib et al., 2019). Changes in fish distribution and \r\nreductions in catch across inland fisheries are associated with climatic \r\nvariability by fishing communities (Okpara et al., 2017b; Lowe et al., \r\n2019; Muringai et al., 2019b). Floods and reduced river flow reduces \r\nfish catches (Kolding et al., 2019), which scale positively with discharge \r\nrates in rivers across Africa (McIntyre et al., 2016)"


id: acd1b0d9e2798f8a6722aae8b1700e0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 24737
content:
" Warming air and \r\nwater temperatures have altered water stratification patterns in African \r\nlakes causing reductions in or redistributions of primary productivity \r\nand leading to reduced fish biomass (Section 9.6.1.3). Such changes, \r\npartially explain reduced fish catches in Lake Tanganyika (Cohen et al., \r\n2016). In some regions, water scarcity has resulted in conflict within \r\nand among food production sectors (pastoralists, fishers and farmers) "


id: cb8ef16f06a7c57a42618e297d393cd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29573
content:
"A and 285 million to vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids by mid-century \r\nunder 1.7degC global warming (Golden et al., 2016). Maire et al. (2021) \r\nassessed the nutritional vulnerabilities of African countries to climate \r\nchange and overfishing, and found that the four most vulnerable countries \r\nranked on a scale from 0 (low vulnerability) to 100 (high vulnerability) \r\nwere Mozambique (87), Madagascar (76), Tanzania (61) and Sierra Leone \r\n(58). Coral reef habitat in east Africa is projected to decrease, resulting \r\nin negative impacts on demersal fish stocks and invertebrates (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al., 2018). Central, west and east Africa are projected to be at \r\nthe greatest nutritional risk from sea temperature rise, leading to reduced \r\ncatch in coastal waters (Figure 9.25; Golden et al., 2016). In north Africa, \r\na rise in water temperatures is expected to impact the phenology and \r\nmigratory patterns of large pelagic species (e.g., bluefin tuna, Thunnus \r\nthynnus) (Hidalgo et  al"


id: 6ddb11dd5ceef7c0207cf39afcda4f60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 14898
content:
", 2018). Increased sea surface temperatures \r\nhave been associated with increases in spring and summer upwelling \r\nintensity reducing the abundance and larval survival of small pelagic \r\nfishes and shellfish in west Africa (Bakun et al., 2015; Tiedemann et al., \r\n2017; Atindana et al., 2020). Ocean warming, acidification and hypoxia "


id: 4486844e186a4a77954cccbe6a3377fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 8207
content:
"other regions with 2.7degC-3.3degC increase by end of century) based on a \r\n3.9degC global warming scenario (Harrod et al., 2018b). In regions where \r\ninland fishery production is derived primarily from lakes, there is a lower \r\nlikelihood of reduced catch, especially where precipitation is projected \r\nto increase (e.g., African Great Lakes region) (Harrod et  al., 2018b). \r\nRegions reliant on rivers and floodplains (e.g., Zambezi and Niger \r\nbasins) are more likely to experience downturns in catch, as hydrological \r\ndynamics may be altered (Harrod et al., 2018b). Projections suggest that \r\nopportunistic species that do well in modified systems (Escalera-vazquez \r\net al., 2017) and small pelagic fishes will remain important components \r\nof inland fishery food systems (Kolding et al., 2016; Gownaris et al., 2018; \r\n2019). Climate adaptation responses that rely on freshwater resources \r\n(e.g"


id: 10a5b0c3f6fda926158bd9be27662fae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 96
content:
", hydroelectric power generation, agricultural irrigation) represent \r\nthreats to inland fisheries (Cowx et al., 2018; Harrod et al., 2018c), by \r\nchanging flow regimes, reducing water levels, and increasing runoff of \r\npesticides and nutrients (Harrod et al., 2018c)."


id: 23e696926ca1c0c4e2fb754d56f9dbc5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3089
content:
"Patterns of vulnerability and adaptive capacity are highly context \r\ndependent and vary within and among fishing communities in \r\ncoastal and riparian areas (Ndhlovu and Saito, 2017; Lowe et  al., \r\n2019; D'agata et  al., 2020). Interventions that integrate scientific \r\nknowledge and fishers' local knowledge while focusing on vulnerable \r\ngroups are expected to be more successful (Musinguzi et al., 2018; \r\nMuringai et  al., 2019b). Infrastructure improvements (e.g., storage \r\nfacilities, processing technologies, transport systems) could reduce \r\npost-harvest losses and improve food safety (Chan et al., 2019). Fisher \r\nsafety can be aided by early warning of severe weather conditions \r\n(Thiery et  al., 2017), enhanced through communication via mass \r\nmedia and mobile phones (Thiery et al., 2017; Kiwanuka-Tondo et al., \r\n2019)"


id: f71926b35137cc52cf7a2f9e420fe0dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 36388
content:
" Although changing fishing gears and shifting target species \r\nare important adaptation options for artisanal fishers, many have \r\ninstead expanded their fishing range or increased effort (Musinguzi \r\net al., 2015; Belhabib et al., 2016). Adapting to the impacts of climate \r\nchange on marine fisheries productivity requires management \r\nreforms accounting for shifting productivity and species distributions, \r\nsuch as increasing marine protected areas, strengthening regional \r\ntrade networks, and increasing the investment and innovation in \r\nclimate-resilient aquaculture production (Golden et  al., 2021). This \r\ncould yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today \r\nin 50% of African countries with marine territories under 2degC global \r\nwarming and in 35% under 4.3degC global warming (Free et al., 2020). \r\nFor inland fisheries, opportunities for adaptation include better \r\nintegration of inland fisheries into management plans from other \r\nsectors (e.g"


id: fe9e17f502d7bbcf5914749347a989
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
", hydropower and irrigation) (Harrod et al., 2018c; Cowx \r\nand Ogutu-Ohwayo, 2019; McCartney et al., 2019). There is growing \r\ninterest in enhancing the supply of freshwater fishery production \r\nfrom small water bodies and reservoirs in dryland regions of sub\u0002Saharan Africa (Kolding et al., 2016)."


id: f53f93196b86581d63181efc74f09d24
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 36101
content:
"Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, the extent of \r\nurban land exposed to high-frequency flooding is projected to increase \r\naround 270% in north Africa, 800% in southern Africa, and 2600% \r\nin mid-latitude Africa by 2030 when compared to 2000, without \r\nconsidering climate change (Guneralp et al., 2015). In addition, global \r\nwarming is projected to increase frequency and magnitude of river \r\nfloods in east, central and west Africa (Alfieri et al., 2017; Gu et al., \r\n2020; Kam et al., 2021). On average, across large African river basins, \r\nthe frequency of flood events with a current return period of 100 years \r\nis projected to increase to 1 in 40  years at 1.5degC and 2degC global \r\nwarming, and 1 in 21 years at 4degC warming, with Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan \r\nand the Democratic Republic of Congo in the top 20 countries globally \r\nfor projected damages (Alfieri et al., 2017)"


id: 5ace0cdc996dc44b9855945eab001536
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 11802
content:
" Compared to population in \r\n2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa \r\nis projected to increase 600% by 2066-2096 with moderate-to-high \r\npopulation growth and 2.6degC global warming, with risk reducing to a \r\n200% increase for low population growth and 1.6degC global warming \r\n(Kam et al., 2021)."


id: ec8cf5a9c3c38a8b7350afc9cf127ccf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 34695
content:
"Urban vulnerabilities and exposure to climate change are increasing \r\n(medium to high confidence) and are influenced by patterns of urban \r\nsettlement and housing characteristics (Satterthwaite, 2017; Godsmark \r\net al., 2019; Williams et al., 2019a). About 70% of African cities are \r\nhighly vulnerable to climate shocks of which small- and medium-sized \r\ntowns and cities are more at risk (Verisk Maplecroft, 2018). Flooding \r\nwas perceived as the most prominent water risk in 75% of 36 sampled \r\ncities across African sub-regions, while drought-related water scarcity \r\nwas indicated as very important/important in 66.7% of cities (OECD, \r\n2021). Almost one-third of African cities with populations of 300,000 \r\nor more are located in areas of high exposure to at least one natural \r\nhazard, including floods (11%) and droughts (20-25%) using natural \r\nhazard data for the period 1970s to early 2000s (Gu et al., 2015)"


id: 3eb983f01fc342256542296ff0644efa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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content:
" The \r\ncoastal cities of east, west and north Africa are particularly vulnerable \r\nto the effects of rising sea levels (Abutaleb et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019a). \r\nFrom 2000-2015, the proportion of people exposed to floods increased \r\nfor most African countries, with Mozambique and multiple countries in \r\nWest Africa estimated to have had the proportion of their populations \r\nexposed to flooding increase more than 50% (Tellman et al., 2021)."


id: 759cd6bf300f6c6358a4088121ab843a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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vector_id: 16096
content:
"In the absence of any adaptation, Egypt, Mozambique, and Nigeria \r\nare projected to be worst affected by SLR in terms of the number of \r\npeople at risk of flooding annually in a 4degC warming scenario (Hinkel \r\net al., 2012). Recent estimates have explored the potential damages \r\ndue to SLR and coastal extreme events in 12 major African cities using \r\na stochastic approach to account for uncertainty (Abadie et al., 2020). \r\nThe aggreate of expected average damages to these cities in 2050 \r\nis USD  65  billion for RCP4.5 and USD  86.5  billion for RCP8.5, and \r\nUSD 137.5 billion under a high-end scenario that incorporates expert \r\nopinion on additional ice sheet melting with damages up to (Table 9.8). \r\nWhen considering low-probability, high-damage events, aggregate \r\ndamage risks can be more than twice as high, reaching USD 187 billion \r\nand USD 206 billion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, \r\nand USD 397 billion under the high-end scenario"


id: 36f163e6db7f0c2d5680c7fe55150d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:28
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6035
content:
" City characteristics \r\nand exposure play a larger role in expected damages and risk than \r\nchanges in sea level. The city of Alexandria in north Africa leads the "


id: 7bfe3009473d3402ccbf45beaa62e493
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 17111
content:
"Figure 9.29 |  Multiple large African cities will be exposed to sea level rise (SLR), these include the selected examples: (a) Dar es Salaam, Bagamoyo, and Stone \r\nTown in Tanzania (east Africa), (b) Lagos in Nigeria, and Cotonou and Porto-Novo in Benin (west Africa) and (c) Cairo and Alexandria in Egypt (north Africa). Orange shows built-up \r\narea in 2014. Shades of blue show permanent flooding due to SLR by 2050 and 2100 under low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions \r\nscenarios. Darker colours for higher emissions scenarios show areas projected to be flooded in addition to those for lower emissions scenarios. The figure assumes failure of coastal \r\ndefences in 2050 and 2100. Some areas are already below current SLR and coastal defences need to be upgraded as SLRs (e.g., in Egypt), others are just above mean sea levels \r\nand they do not necessarily have high protection levels, so these defences need to be built (e.g., Dar es Salaam and Lagos)"


id: 82dedc717070dc2954d30c1cb38840b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18115
content:
" Blue shading shows permanent inundation surfaces \r\npredicted by Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) given the 95th percentile K14/RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for present day, \r\n2050, and 2100 sea level projection for permanent inundation (inundation without a storm surge event), and RL10 (10-year return level storm) (Kulp and Strauss, 2019). Low-lying \r\nareas isolated from the ocean are removed from the inundation surface using connected components analysis. Current water bodies are derived from the SRTM Water Body Dataset. \r\nOrange areas represent the extent of coastal human settlements in 2014 (Corbane et al., 2018). See Figure CCP4.7 for projections including subsidence and worst-case scenario \r\nprojections for 2100."


id: 16ed3527e9a9cd2e42a5d5e80936dd55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"population growth (SSP4) by the 2060s, with increases of 20-52 times \r\n1985-2005 levels by 2080-2100, depending on the scenario (Rohat \r\net al., 2019). West Africa (especially Nigeria) has the highest absolute \r\nexposure and southern Africa the least. Considering the urban heat \r\nisland effect, the more vulnerable populations under 5 and over 64 \r\nexposed to heat waves of >15 days over 42degC are projected to increase \r\nfrom 27  million in 2010 to 360  million by 2100 for low population \r\ngrowth (SSP1) with 1.8degC global warming, increasing to 440 million for \r\nlow population growth (SSP5) with >4degC global warming, with west \r\nAfrica most affected (Marcotullio et al., 2021). This portends increased \r\nvulnerability to risk of heat stress in big cities of central, east and west \r\nAfrica (very high confidence) (Gasparrini et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017; \r\nRohat et al., 2019)"


id: a55e9e9f87696ea1c5518c4aa6e9846e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Shifting to a low urban population growth pathway \r\nis projected to achieve a greater reduction in aggregate exposure to \r\nextreme heat for most cities in west Africa, whereas limiting warming \r\nthrough lower emissions pathways achieves greater reductions in \r\nexposure in central and east Africa (Rohat et al., 2019)."


id: ef019f5a9f477313902647f643967de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35077
content:
"Although an increase in drought hazard is projected for north and \r\nsouthwest southern Africa with increased global warming (Figure 9.15), \r\ncentral African countries may have the highest drought risk because of \r\nhigh vulnerability and high population growth (Ahmadalipour et  al., \r\n2019). Among continents, Africa contains the second largest population \r\nof people living in drylands, which is expected to double by 2050 \r\n(IPCC, 2019a). Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, \r\nthe extent of urban land in arid zones is projected to increase around \r\n180% in southern Africa, 300% in north Africa and 700% in mid-latitude \r\nAfrica by 2030 when compared to 2000, without considering climate \r\nchange (Guneralp et al., 2015). At 1.5degC warming, urban populations \r\nexposed to severe droughts in west Africa are projected to increase \r\n(65+-34  million) and increase further at 2degC (IPCC, 2018b; Liu et  al., \r\n2018b)"


id: d45d268e214dc19d175bb1e0310b75a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30931
content:
" Risks associated with increases in drought frequency and \r\nmagnitudes are projected to be substantially larger at 2degC than at 1.5degC \r\nfor north Africa and southern Africa (IPCC, 2018b; Oppenheimer et al., \r\n2019). Dryland populations exposed (vulnerable) to water stress, heat \r\nstress, and desertification are projected to reach 951 (178) million at \r\n1.5degC, 1152 (220) million at 2degC, and 1285 (277) million at 3degC of global \r\nwarming (IPCC, 2019a). At global warming of 2degC under a scenario \r\nof low population growth and sustainable development (SSP1), the \r\nexposed (vulnerable) dryland population is 974 (35) million and for \r\nhigher population growth and low environmental protections (SSP3) it \r\nis 1.27 billion (522 million), a majority of which is in west Africa (IPCC, \r\n2019a)."


id: 52b1a126c4f4f96ea370cb7732250e8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10469
content:
"There is limited evidence of successful, proactively planned climate \r\nchange adaptation in African cities (Simon and Leck, 2015), particularly \r\nfor those countries highly vulnerable to climate change (Ford et  al., \r\n2014). Planned adaptation initiatives in African cities since 2006 have \r\nbeen predominantly determined at the national level with negligible \r\nparticipation of lower levels of government (Ford et  al., 2014). \r\nAdaptation action directed at vulnerable populations is also rare (Ford \r\net  al., 2014). There are emerging examples of cities planned climate \r\nadaptation measures, such as those advanced by Durban (Roberts, \r\n2010), Cape Town (Taylor et al., 2016) and Lagos (Adelekan, 2016). There \r\nare also examples of community-led projects such as those in Maputo \r\n(Broto et al., 2015), which have seen meaningful help from a range of \r\npolicy networks, dialogue forums and urban learning labs (Pasquini and \r\nCowling, 2014; Shackleton et al., 2015)"


id: 6a205ee39393b7b0053a2a64e0113584
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14304
content:
" These researched cities can be \r\nlighthouses for wider exchange and the basis for a deeper synthesis of \r\nevidence (Lindley et al., 2019). However, planned adaptation progress is \r\nslow, especially in west and central Africa (Tiepolo, 2014)."


id: a341da92f45770b4e684bc0a5af04931
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23251
content:
"Climate change and SLR will result in high economic costs for road \r\ninfrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa (medium confidence) (Chinowsky \r\net  al., 2015). Across Africa as a whole, potential cumulative costs \r\nestimates through 2100 range from USD  183.6  billion (with \r\nadaptation) to USD  248.3  billion (no adaptation) to repair and \r\nmaintain existing roads damaged by temperature and precipitation \r\nchanges directly related to projected climate change (see Figure 9.30) \r\n(Chinowsky et al., 2013). Climate-related road damage and associated \r\nrepairs will be a significant financial burden to countries, but to \r\nvarying degrees according to flood risk, existing road asset liability, \r\ntopography and rural connectivity, among other factors (Chinowsky \r\net  al., 2015; Cervigni et  al., 2017; Koks et  al., 2019)"


id: f4bb12a2863c9539b1444de71557e17f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36010
content:
" For example, \r\nMozambique is projected to face estimated annual average costs \r\nof USD  123  million for maintaining and repairing roads damaged \r\ndirectly by precipitation and temperature changes from climate \r\nchange through 2050 in a median climate change scenario for a \r\npolicy that does not consider climate impacts during road design \r\nand construction (Chinowsky et al., 2015). Risk of river flooding to \r\nbridges in Mozambique under current conditions is estimated to be \r\nUSD 200 million, equal to 1.5% of its GDP per year, and could rise to \r\nUSD 400 million per year in the worst-case climate change scenario \r\nby 2050 (Schweikert et al., 2015)."


id: d93c67637ad8d66e4847075d2d6ebca1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31688
content:
"Under the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action programme, \r\ninvestments in public transport and transit-oriented development are \r\nhighlighted as desired mitigation-adaptation interventions within \r\ncities of South Africa, Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (UNFCCC, 2020). \r\nThese interventions simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of low\u0002income residents to climate shocks, prevent lock-ins into carbon\u0002intensive development pathways and reduce poverty (high confidence) \r\n(Hallegatte et  al., 2016; Rozenberg et  al., 2019). The combined \r\nmitigation-adaptation interventions in the land use transport systems \r\nof African cities are also expected to have sufficient short-term co\u0002benefits (reducing air pollution, congestion and traffic fatalities) to be \r\n'no regret' investments (very high confidence) (Hallegatte et al., 2016; \r\nRozenberg et al., 2019). Only eight African countries have transport\u0002specific adaptation measures in their NDCs (Nwamarah, 2018)"


id: e8f5193da6bdd2960cb54176711ab0e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34167
content:
"linked (Schulz and Northridge, 2004; Moore and Diaz, 2015) and are \r\nlargely outside the domain of the health sector. Climate change is \r\nalready challenging the health and well-being of African communities, \r\ncompounding the effects of underlying inequalities (high confidence). \r\nThe interlinkage between climate change and social determinants of \r\nhealth are largely discussed at a global level (Commission of Social \r\nDeterminants of Health, 2008), or for developed countries (Ahdoot \r\net  al., 2015; Levy and Patz, 2015; Department of Economic and \r\nSocial Affairs, 2016), with scant evidence for Africa. Nevertheless, \r\nthere is robust evidence that the health impacts of climate change \r\ndisproportionately affect the poorest people and children and, in some \r\nsituations, can differ by gender and age (St Louis and Hess, 2008; \r\nNyahunda et al., 2020; Ragavan et al., 2020; see Box 9.1). Unequal \r\naccess to health care particularly affects rural communities (Falchetta \r\net  al"


id: b439bcb9787ac8d8df661d95d183fdcc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25869
content:
", 2020), vulnerable women and children (Wigley et  al., 2020a) \r\nand challenges the achievement of development priorities such as \r\nuniversal health care access (SDG 3) (Weiss et al., 2020)."


id: 6ae183431aec348c91a707d7aa5aeff8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14432
content:
"Since AR5, significant progress has been made in understanding how \r\nchanges in climate influence the seasonal and geographical range \r\nof malaria vectors, transmission intensity and burden of disease of \r\nmalaria across Africa. Yet projecting changes remains challenging given \r\nthe range of factors that influence transmission and disease patterns, \r\nand model outputs contain high degrees of uncertainty (Zermoglio \r\net al., 2019; Giesen et al., 2020). Models have limited ability to account \r\nfor population changes and development trends (Kibret et al., 2015; \r\n2017), investments in health sectors and interventions (McCord, 2016; \r\nColborn et al., 2018; Caminade et al., 2019), and confounders such as \r\nage, socioeconomic status, employment, labour migration and climate \r\nvariability (Bennett et al., 2016; Karuri and Snow, 2016; Byass et al., \r\n2017; Chuang et al., 2017; Colborn et al., 2018)"


id: 475362e6ee6d0912d037c84b86165c6d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8608
content:
" Nevertheless, available \r\nmodels do allow for projections of malaria transmission under different \r\nclimate change scenarios to be made with high levels of certainty."


id: e9df5628df5fa2e5bb2efd8c3138292d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"In east and southern Africa and the Sahel, malaria vector hotspots \r\nand prevalence are projected to increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by \r\n2030 (1.5degC-1.7degC global warming) (high confidence) (Leedale et al., \r\n2016; Semakula et al., 2017b; Zermoglio et al., 2019), becoming more \r\npronounced later in the century (2.4degC-3.9degC global warming) (Ryan \r\net  al., 2020). Under RCP4.5, 50.6-62.1  million people in east and \r\nsouthern Africa will be at risk of malaria by the 2030s (1.5degC global \r\nwarming), and 196-198 million by the 2080s (2.4degC global warming) \r\n(Ryan et al., 2020). Northern Angola, southern DRC, western Tanzania and \r\ncentral Uganda are predicted to be worst impacted in 2030, extending \r\nto western Angola, upper Zambezi River basin, northeastern Zambia \r\nand the east African Highlands by 2080 (Ryan et al., 2020)"


id: 88b4bf2a6dbeee0636df8adb2c388a55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Under rising \r\ntemperatures, by the 2050s, the greatest shifts in suitability for malaria \r\ntransmission will be seen in east, southern and central Africa (2degC global \r\nwarming) (Tonnang et al., 2014; Zermoglio et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2020)."


id: df2b2bfbab81254d74dfb616c85ee81b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"range due to changing environmental suitability, combined with rapid \r\nurbanisation and population growth, suggest that by 2050 populations \r\nexposed to these vectors in Africa may double, and by 2080 nearly \r\ntriple at >2degC global warming (Kraemer et al., 2019). Southern limits \r\nof dengue transmission in Namibia and Botswana, and the western \r\nSahel, may show the greatest expansions in environmental suitability \r\nunder 1.8degC-2.6degC global warming (Messina et  al., 2019). In the \r\nwarmest scenarios (RCP8.5), however, some parts of central Africa \r\nmay become too hot for mosquitoes to transmit dengue, and thus \r\nat-risk populations may peak at intermediate warming levels (Ryan \r\net al., 2019). Climatic conditions favourable for mosquitoes, combined \r\nwith the increase of animal trade, may result in the expansion of the \r\ngeographic range of zoonotic diseases like RVF (Martin et al., 2008), \r\na threat for human and animal health with strong socioeconomic \r\nimpacts (Peyre et al"


id: face75db0e53d6a3b4f919dee1c4d554
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Future influenza pandemics are highly likely, as are regional epidemics and pandemics of novel zoonotic viruses (including coronaviruses \r\nand flaviviruses) (high confidence). In the next decades, climate change will reshape the risk landscape for emerging zoonotic threats as \r\nwildlife-livestock-human interfaces shift, facilitating the emergence of novel zoonotic threats and spillover of known zoonoses into novel \r\ngeographies (Carlson et al., 2020a; Mordecai et al., 2020). Characteristics of urban development and level of service provision, for example, \r\ncrowded living spaces and transport facilities, and access to water and sanitation will influence the transmission of COVID-19 and future \r\ndisease outbreaks (Wilkinson, 2020)"


id: 25be12954859621a637c105942b1c0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Historically, west and central Africa were considered especially at risk of outbreaks given their high \r\nbiodiversity, high intensity of human-wildlife contact including wild meat trade, vulnerable health systems and history of Ebola virus \r\ndisease outbreaks (Paige et al., 2014; Allen et al., 2017; Pigott et al., 2017). However, as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus \r\n(MERS-CoV) and COVID-19 pandemics have shown, there are multiple hotspots of viruses with pandemic potential globally, many of which \r\nare not in Africa. Thus, labelling African rainforests as unique 'hotspots' undermines global health work and pandemic preparedness."


id: 997d2c9929fad879d997b4dd3af2a61a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Heat stress symptoms are prevalent among people in buildings that \r\nare poorly ventilated or insulated, or constructed with unsuitable \r\nmaterials (e.g., corrugated metal sheeting). These features are \r\ncommon to many structures in Africa, including slums, informal and \r\nlow-income settlements, as well as schools and healthcare facilities \r\n(Bidassey-Manilal et al., 2016; Naicker et al., 2017; Wright et al., 2019). \r\nTemperatures inside these structures can exceed outdoor temperatures \r\nby 4degC or more and have large diurnal fluctuations (Mabuya and \r\nScholes, 2020). Daily wage labourers and residents of urban informal \r\nsettlements are among the most vulnerable to heat stress because \r\nof the urban heat island effect, with congestion, and inadequate \r\nventilation, shade, open space and vegetation (Bartlett, 2008) being \r\nassociated with impacts of both hot and cold conditions on public \r\nhealth (Ramin, 2009)"


id: 1f00c413b16351f96cf908276b23657a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Temperature extremes are expected to result in \r\nrelatively more deaths in informal settlements than in other settlement \r\ntypes (Scovronick and Armstrong, 2012)."


id: 44b821e9a3d2e6678fc1d516f820e4f6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"(c) showing avoidable deaths due to increased emissions mitigation efforts to achieve a lower global warming level (RCP4.5 rather than RCP8.5). These estimates of climate \r\nchange impacts on mortality rates include temperature-related impacts only. They account for the benefits of income growth and incremental adaptation to climate change, both \r\nof which reduce mortality sensitivity to extreme temperatures. Projections were based on income and demographics from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3), with future \r\nadaptation based on adaptation actions observed in the global historical record. The estimates do not include the costs of the behaviours and investments required to achieve such \r\nadaptation (Carleton et al., 2018). Areas shown in burgundy in (c) have fewer deaths due to temperature under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5"


id: 9d548a49537d9955eaae9ea72b9f55b6
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" This is because cold is currently the greatest \r\ndriver of temperature-related deaths in these areas, which is projected to be alleviated with increasing levels of global warming (Zhao et al., 2021)."


id: c090ce27e6b02c3fbf76098f70bd4dc8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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"Projected risks for malnutrition in Africa are high (FAO, 2016; see \r\nSection  9.8.1): 433  million people in Africa are anticipated to be \r\nundernourished by 2030 (FAO et al., 2020) and, compared to 1961-\r\n1990, 1.4  million additional African children will suffer from severe \r\nstunting by 2050 under 2.1degC global warming (WHO, 2014). In Burkina \r\nFaso, the mortality burden due to low crop yields could double by 2100 \r\nwith 1.5degC of global warming (Belesova et al., 2019). Drought risks \r\nwill include crop and livestock failures (Ahmadalipour et  al., 2019). \r\nAdditionally, increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will affect \r\nthe nutritional quality of C3 plant staples, lowering levels of protein \r\nand minerals like zinc and iron (Myers et al., 2014; Weyant et al., 2018)"


id: e18c9839b0233a4fd9d2e008af9b1ddf
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" \r\nDeclining fish catches due to ocean warming, illegal fishing and poor \r\nstock management are projected to increase deficiencies of zinc, iron \r\nand vitamin A for millions of people across Mozambique, Angola and \r\nmultiple west African countries (see Section 9.8.5; Golden et al., 2016)."


id: a74161ab98b3c2fcdce018b1e167fc17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Climate and health adaptation indicators are required for Africa \r\nto strengthen institutional capacity for risk monitoring and early \r\nwarning systems, emergency preparedness and response, vulnerability \r\nreduction measures, shock-responsive and long-term social protection, \r\nand planning and implementing resilience-building measures (FAO \r\nand ECA, 2018). National-level progress is assessed through the \r\nLancet Countdown indicators (Watts et  al., 2018), however, district\u0002and local-level indicators are needed to measure levels of vulnerability \r\nand response effectiveness at a local level, and for informing planning \r\nlocal service delivery. Potential indicators include monitoring the \r\nnumber of excess health conditions during extreme heat events"


id: 163e1ec14dff6d75a899de5b983e9be3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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" \r\nIndoor temperature monitoring in sentinel houses and health facilities \r\nis a related indicator (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017), linked with \r\nthreshold temperature levels at which health impacts occur, and the \r\nability of the built environment to protect against these impacts (e.g., \r\nfor heatwaves)."


id: 41b71aac737c50f5896dcb5845392c17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Increased awareness can facilitate community engagement and \r\naction (see Section 9.4.3). In Ghana, for example, local communities \r\nunderstand the climate hazards that drive outbreaks of meningitis \r\nand adapt accordingly by improving housing to limit heat and \r\nexposure, changing funeral practices during outbreaks, increased \r\nvaccination uptake and afforestation (Codjoe and Nabie, 2014). \r\nSimilarly, participation in community organisations improved child \r\nnutrition in vulnerable rural households in Eswatini (Anchang et al., \r\n2019). Interventions specifically targeting women are beneficial for \r\nfood security, although they may be undermined by harmful gender \r\nnorms in communities that are patriarchal, led by chiefs or have high \r\nrates of gender-based violence (Jaka and Shava, 2018; Kita, 2019; \r\nMasson et al., 2019). The BRACED project in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia \r\nspecifically adopted a gender-transformative approach as an integral \r\npart of resilience building (McOmber et al"


id: 40710c57e273fc9ca6f54e7660055470
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content:
", 2019). Improving 'climate \r\nliteracy' could empower youth, women and men to be active citizens in \r\npromoting adherence of governments to international agreements in \r\nclimate change (Mudombi et al., 2017; Chersich et al., 2019a)."


id: ae45910f9f34623d7b71b29b7ef7743
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Reducing morbidity and mortality during extreme heat events \r\nrequires changes in behaviour and health promotion initiatives, \r\nhealth system interventions and modifications to the built and \r\nnatural environment. Health promotion initiatives include promoting \r\nadequate hydration and simple cooling measures, such as drinking \r\ncold liquids, water sprays and raising awareness of the symptoms \r\nand importance of heat stress, including heatstroke (Aljawabra and \r\nNikolopoulou, 2018). Adaptive measures are especially important \r\nfor high-risk groups such as outdoor workers, the elderly, pregnant \r\nwomen and infants. Health systems interventions may include \r\nearly warning systems, heat health regulation and health workers \r\nproviding cooling interventions, such as supplying cool water or \r\nfans, during heat waves. Changes to the built environment include \r\npainting the roofs of houses white and improving ventilation during \r\nextreme heat (Codjoe et al"


id: 63e54f544548aa8324d6769747b88614
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content:
", 2020), the use of insulation materials or \r\naltering the building materials used for the construction of housing \r\nto improve their ability to moderate indoor temperatures (Mathews \r\net al., 1995; Makaka and Meyer, 2006)."


id: d779def83aae2fc5d25e6e84136337dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Several studies indicate that experiencing low rainfall, warming \r\ntemperatures or extreme weather events reduce education attainment \r\nand that future climate change may reduce children's school participation, \r\nparticularly for agriculturally dependent and poor urban households. In \r\nwest and central Africa, experiencing lower-than-average rainfall during \r\nearly life is associated with up to 1.8 fewer years of completed schooling \r\nin adolescence, while more rainfall and milder temperatures during the \r\nmain agricultural season are positively associated with educational \r\nattainment for boys and girls in rural Ethiopia (Randell and Gray, 2016; \r\nRandell and Gray, 2019). In Uganda, low rainfall reduced primary \r\nschool enrolment by 5% for girls (Bjorkman-Nyqvist, 2013), and in \r\nMalawi, in utero drought exposure was associated with delayed school \r\nentry among boys (Abiona, 2017)"


id: 53ca012a2ca1a8c7850c9dc33d4ce0be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" In rural Zimbabwe, experiencing \r\ndrought conditions during the first few years of life was associated with \r\nfewer grades of completed schooling in adolescence, which translates \r\ninto a 14% reduction in lifetime earnings (Alderman et al., 2006). In \r\nCameroon, warming temperatures have negatively affected plantain \r\nyields, which in turn is linked to lower educational attainment (Fuller \r\net  al., 2018). One suggested mechanism underlying the relationship \r\nbetween climate and schooling is that adverse climatic conditions \r\ncan reduce income among farming households, leading them to pull \r\nchildren out of school (Randell and Gray, 2016; Marchetta et al., 2019). \r\nOther potential mechanisms are poor harvests from droughts or supply \r\ninterruptions from extreme weather events leading to undernutrition \r\namong young children, negatively affecting cognitive development and \r\nschooling potential (Alderman et al., 2006; Bartlett, 2008)."


id: 95c062169e4bc5da318b352eb8f51ae3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Substantial avoided economic damages to African countries are \r\nprojected from ambitious, near-term global mitigation limiting global \r\nwarming well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels (high confidence). \r\nIncreased economic damage forecasts for Africa under high emissions \r\nscenarios start diverging rapidly from low emissions scenarios by the \r\n2030s (Baarsch et al., 2020). Across nearly all African countries, GDP \r\nper capita is projected to be at least 5% higher by 2050 and 10-20% \r\nhigher by 2100 if global warming is held to 1.5degC versus 2degC (Burke \r\net al., 2018a; Baarsch et al., 2020) (Figure 9.37). The probability of this \r\npositive gain to GDP per capita from achieving 1.5degC versus 2degC is \r\nreported as close to 100% (Burke et al., 2018a). While these estimates \r\nrely on temperature and rainfall-driven damages, SLR also poses a risk \r\nfor Africa"


id: c31f888f5c7042f1cab2dc4a829e7372
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" By 2050, damages from SLR across sub-Saharan Africa could \r\nreach 2-4% of GDP, depending on the socioeconomic, adaptation and \r\nemissions scenario (Parrado et al., 2020)."


id: f6a931961344fa87b54834be4b1c4d75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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"People in Africa are disproportionately employed in highly climate\u0002sensitive sectors: 55-62% of the sub-Saharan African workforce is \r\nemployed in agriculture and, although between 90-95% of cropland \r\nis rainfed (Woodhouse et al., 2017; ILO, 2018a; International Institute \r\nof Water Management, 2019; World Bank, 2020c), there has been an \r\nexpansion of small-scale 'farmer-led irrigation' (Woodhouse et  al., \r\n2017). Agricultural GDP also appears more strongly affected by \r\nincreasing temperatures than non-agricultural GDP, implying livelihood \r\ndiversification out of agriculture may help minimise future economic \r\ndamage (Bezabih et al., 2011; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., 2017; \r\nDeryugina and Hsiang, 2017), although such workforce reallocation \r\nrequires careful management and planning depending on the overall \r\nlivelihood portfolios, type of farmer and profitability (Stringer et  al., \r\n2020)"


id: fc494258e6983c831c4b88808c17f9dc
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content:
" De-agrarianisation can feed urbanisation, which may exacerbate \r\ninequality within and between countries (Stringer et al., 2020)."


id: bf27239c6e793ee73e3511eb89b526b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"There is scope for governments to better harness the role of the \r\ninformal sector in mitigation and adaptation (Douxchamps et al., 2015; \r\nSatterthwaite et al., 2020). Multi-level governance that includes informal \r\nservice providers, such as informal water and sanitation networks, into \r\nplanned adaptation programmes can increase climate resilience, in part \r\nbecause these networks can respond with more flexibility than hard \r\ninfrastructure projects (Satterthwaite et al., 2020; Peirson and Ziervogel, \r\n2021). Climate risk is often concentrated in urban informal settlements \r\n(Section  9.9.4). Here, informal land markets influence development \r\npatterns and can help ensure adherence to building codes to ensure \r\nsafety of informally built structures at high risks of landslides and floods \r\nand enforce compliance with regulations relating to planning and land \r\nuse (Thorn et  al., 2015; Satterthwaite et  al., 2020)"


id: cf56feae0e936ef2fdbb454a8ccfed7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Improving land \r\nmanagement practices of charcoal producers and artisanal gold miners, \r\ncombined with appropriate alternative livelihood and energy sources, \r\ncan reduce emissions and increase resilience (e.g., reduce erosion and \r\nsedimentation, increase water infiltration) and benefit health (Atteridge, \r\n2013; Paz et al., 2015; Machacek, 2019; Barenblitt et al., 2021; Eniola, \r\n2021). Providing concessional loans, commercial financing or equity \r\ninvestment to informal brick makers can boost delivery of low emission \r\nsocial housing while the use of crop residues or renewable energy for \r\nbrick making can replace wood biomass and reduce pressure on forests \r\n(Alam, 2006; Paz et al., 2015)."


id: 50129b92b855319db63d6d830a71e912
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Changes in trade patterns may help mitigate projected aggregate \r\neconomic losses by reallocating agricultural production abroad and \r\nencouraging economic diversification toward less affected sectors. \r\nTemperature increases have been shown to lower agriculture and \r\nmanufacturing exports with especially large declines in poor countries \r\n(Jones and Olken, 2010; Roberts and Schlenker, 2013). Further, imports \r\nof agricultural products are projected to rise across most of Africa by \r\n2080-2099 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with increases \r\nranging from ~30% of GDP in the Central African Republic to ~5% \r\nof GDP in South Africa and Nigeria, although some countries will \r\nexperience increases in net agricultural exports (Nath, 2020). While \r\nthese reallocation effects may be large, current evidence is mixed \r\nregarding whether such adjustment of production will dampen or \r\namplify overall social costs of climate change in Africa (Costinot et al., \r\n2012; Bren d'Amour et al"


id: 8a148949a015bac8459d2c83cceb0299
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", 2016; Wenz and Levermann, 2016; Nath, \r\n2020), as food prices are projected to rise by 2080-2099 across all \r\nAfrican countries under a scenario with high challenges to mitigation \r\nand adaptation (SSP3 and RCP8.5), with the largest price effects (up to \r\n120%) experienced in Chad, Niger and Sudan (Nath, 2020). Moreover, \r\nreallocating production of agriculture abroad could be maladaptive if \r\nit leads to decline or replacement of traditional sectors by industrial \r\nand service sectors, which could lead to land abandonment, food \r\ninsecurity and loss of traditional practices and cultural heritage (Thorn \r\net al., 2020; Gebre and Rahut, 2021; Nyiwul, 2021)."


id: 40cf370fcaffae075b97d7055de0be99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"shocks (Castells-Quintana et al., 2018). Poor households may reduce risk \r\nor aid recovery by cooperating with other households in their community \r\nto adapt collectively to climate change, for example, through informal \r\ninsurance networks (Paul et al., 2016; Wuepper et al., 2018). Prioritising \r\npoor households for interventions including social protection, EbA, \r\nuniversal healthcare, climate-smart buildings and agriculture, flexible \r\nwork hours under extreme heat and early warning systems will increase \r\nadaptation to climate shocks (Section  9.6.4; Chapter 6; Angula and \r\nMenjono, 2014; Moosa and Tuana, 2014; Hallegatte et al., 2016; Day \r\net al., 2019)"


id: 3188749b1ff768e3cf632390f0eedcc6
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" Pro-poor policies that link mitigation and adaptation, such \r\nas using renewable energy to increase rural electrification or using \r\nrevenues from a carbon tax, combined with international financial \r\nsupport to increase social assistance, could support sustainable \r\neradication of poverty under near-term climate change (Hallegatte \r\net al., 2016; Aklin et al., 2018; Simpson et al., 2021c). Integrating urban \r\ngreen infrastructure into adaptation planning in informal settlements \r\ncan simultaneously unlock pathways for inclusivity and social justice \r\n(Section 9.9.5; Tozer et al., 2020; Wijesinghe and Thorn, 2021)."


id: 578f71a08a3ae74d5a9fcc98df0f1acf
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vector_id: 11273
content:
"In rural Africa, poor and female-headed households face greater \r\nlivelihood risks from climate hazards (high confidence). Women \r\noften constitute a high proportion of the informal workforce and \r\nare also more likely to be unemployed than men (ILO, 2018a). \r\nThese factors leave women, and particularly female-headed \r\nhouseholds, at greater risk of poverty and food insecurity from \r\nclimate hazards. Controlling for multiple factors, income of female\u0002headed households in agricultural districts in South Africa is more \r\nvulnerable to precipitation variability than those headed by men \r\n(Davidson, 2016; Flato et  al., 2017). Across nine countries in east \r\nand west Africa women tend to control smaller plots of land that is \r\noften of poorer quality, have less access to inputs such as fertilizer, \r\ntools and improved seeds, have lower educational attainment and \r\nbenefit less from extension services, government agencies and non\u0002governmental organisations (Perez et al., 2015)"


id: aea47b08f2b28de75a152322610ae016
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content:
" Gender assessments \r\nprior to adaptation programmes can identify disparities in division \r\nof labour and income and socio-cultural norms, hindering women \r\nfrom holding leadership positions or determining livelihood and \r\nresource-use activities, thereby helping ensure equitable benefits \r\nfrom livelihood diversification and improving women's working \r\nconditions (ILO, 2018a). Gender-responsive policy instruments can \r\nmeasure success using sex-disaggregated data to monitor impact \r\nand meaningful participation in decision making (GCF, 2018b)."


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content:
"Social protection has been used for decades, particularly in eastern and \r\nsouthern Africa, to safeguard poor and vulnerable populations from \r\npoverty and food insecurity (Nino-Zarazua et al., 2012). Instruments of \r\nsocial protection include public works programmes, cash transfers, in\u0002kind transfers, social insurance and microinsurance schemes that assist \r\nindividuals and households to cope during times of crisis and minimise \r\nsocial inequality. Evidence from Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda indicates \r\nnational social protection programmes are effective in improving \r\nindividual and household resilience to climate-related shocks, regardless \r\nof whether they aim specifically to address climate risks (Ulrichs et al., \r\n2019). Strengthening social protection and better integrating climate \r\nrisk management into design of social protection programmes can help \r\nbuild long-term resilience to climate change (Hallegatte et al., 2016; \r\nAgrawal et al., 2019)"


id: 256a4f5a14ac97c67ed212de0aba9e75
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content:
" For example, public works programmes can build \r\nclimate resilience by targeting soil, water and ecosystem conservation \r\nand carbon sequestration, such as South Africa's Working for Water \r\nProgramme that restores river catchments to reduce fire risk and \r\nincrease water supplies (Turpie et al., 2008; Norton et al., 2020)."


id: 625eb406e112c6855f19b5348335db47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Exposure to climate hazards can trap poorer households in a cycle of \r\npoverty (Dercon and Christiaensen, 2011; Sesmero et al., 2018) and \r\npoor people in Africa are often more exposed to climate hazards \r\nthan non-poor people. For example, poor people live in hotter areas \r\nin Nigeria and in multiple African countries, poor households are \r\nmore exposed to flooding (Section  9.9.2; Hallegatte et  al., 2016). \r\nDaily wage labourers and residents of urban informal settlements \r\nare vulnerable to heat stress because of the urban heat island effect \r\ncombined with congestion, little shade and ventilation (Bartlett, 2008). \r\nClimate change can negatively affect household poverty through \r\nprice spikes, destroying assets or ability to invest in new assets and \r\nreducing productivity (Hallegatte et al., 2016) with important impact \r\npathways operating through agriculture, ecosystem functioning and \r\nhealth (Sections 9.6; 9.8; 9.10; Chapters 5; 7; 8)"


id: 14e969d5a130f1be4e203577ae8e09ae
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content:
" Non-poor people can \r\nlose more in absolute terms from climate shocks because of having \r\nmore assets and higher incomes, but in relative terms, poor people \r\noften lose more than the non-poor. These relative losses matter most \r\nfor livelihoods and welfare (Hallegatte et al., 2016)."


id: 7da3ba2bb57d8fdd931cd2b5513ea730
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"despite the relatively low cost, uptake remains low due to affordability \r\nconstraints, lack of awareness, access to and trust in products, \r\ndistribution challenges, basis risk, poor transparency, challenges \r\nregarding the integration of complementary interventions (e.g., access \r\nto improved inputs or informal savings/credit) and poor perceptions/\r\nnorms of insurance and risk transfer. Lack of data and models further \r\nhinders insurers' ability to price risk correctly, which reduces value to \r\nclients (Greatrex et  al., 2015; Di Marcantonio and Kayitakire, 2017; \r\nWEF, 2021). Impact assessments point to potential but remain context\u0002specific (Awondo, 2019; Hansen et al., 2019b; Noritomo and Takahashi, \r\n2020). In addition, there is no comprehensive overview of the number \r\nof people covered by such schemes, nor of the value they provide in \r\nterms of actual claims payouts"


id: d045af59980708f8756589e8a4f9322a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Lastly, donor and/or public funds still \r\nplay an outsized role in launching and/or sustaining these schemes \r\nand schemes beyond weather and drought remain limited (Table 9.12)."


id: ded1ec70f09bb3c3b637be1e2da944ef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been substantially \r\nworsened by climate hazards in many places. In others, outbreak \r\nresponse has been disrupted (Phillips et  al., 2020; Kruczkiewicz \r\net  al., 2021). These vulnerabilities are rooted in insufficient disaster \r\npreparedness infrastructure but are almost always worsened by social \r\nand economic inequality. Ensuring the most vulnerable populations \r\nare properly protected from climate change has co-benefits for \r\nrecovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (Manzanedo and Manning, \r\n2020). In particular, efforts to reduce syndemic vulnerabilities across \r\nkey sectors (especially health, livelihoods and food security) will lessen \r\nclimate change impacts and will also reduce the risk and impacts of \r\nfuture epidemics and pandemics, for example, during the pandemic, \r\nwater scarcity has been a barrier to a key risk mitigation behaviour \r\n(hand washing)"


id: 397e5bf740600230d0c4c46a07947791
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" In the long-term, development efforts focused on \r\nWASH will reduce this vulnerability and also reduce the health toll of \r\ndiarrheal disease linked to climate change (Anim and Ofori-Asenso, \r\n2020; Zvobgo and Do, 2020). Spending recovery funds on social \r\nsafety nets will reduce inequality and protect the most vulnerable \r\ncommunities (especially women and low-income and marginalised \r\ncommunities) from the social and economic impacts of disasters. Key \r\namong these safety nets is universal health coverage, including low- or "


id: 7b000c8d2b9ba05f2d12a3703b68d92b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Urbanisation in Africa is affected by climate conditions in rural agricultural areas (high confidence). Urbanisation can increase when \r\nreduced moisture availability depresses farm incomes or pastoral livelihoods become unviable (Marchiori et al., 2012; Henderson et al., \r\n2014; Mastrorillo et al., 2016). The influence of rainfall on rural-urban migration increased since decolonisation, possibly due to more \r\nlenient legislation on internal mobility, with each 1% reduction in precipitation below a long-term average associated with a 0.45% \r\nincrease in urbanisation (Barrios et  al., 2006). The rate of rural-urban migration is anticipated to increase (Neumann et  al., 2015) \r\nas a result of increasing vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods to climate change (Serdeczny et al., 2017). Nevertheless, rural-urban \r\nmigration is not a simple one-way process"


id: 2f73c188da26bc4f0157e2ceebf874fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Peri-urban and rural areas provide developmental feedback loops, helping create a 'regional \r\nagglomeration' effect, for instance, through growing food demand, family and social connections, and flows back to rural areas of goods \r\nand services and financial investments (UN-Habitat, 2016; Dodman et al., 2017)."


id: 43b012aaff744382e646b0218790187
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Studies on propensity to emigrate have uncovered conflicting results. Some findings suggest in low-income countries high temperatures \r\n'trap' people at home and lower migration rates abroad, but in middle-income countries, these same high temperatures encourage \r\nemigration (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). However, other research finds in poor and agriculturally dependent countries, high temperatures \r\nencourage international out-migration, particularly to the OECD (Cai et al., 2016). Some evidence indicates people who leave tend to \r\nbe more educated, possibly leading to 'brain drain' (Mbaye, 2017). Recent evidence suggests hotter-than-normal temperatures across \r\n103 countries, including many in Africa, increased asylum applications to the European Union (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017). Assuming \r\nno change in present-day vulnerability, asylum applications are projected to increase 34% across Africa (relative to 2000-2014) at 2"


id: b71ce819576a104ed9201f045fc5eb31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 26343
content:
"2degC \r\nglobal warming (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017), although this finding has been challenged in the literature (Abel et al., 2019; Boas et al., \r\n2019)."


id: 9f91bdbbf356f64a1455fc39313b0da5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Table Box 9.8.2 |  Projected numbers and shares of internal climate migrants in 2050 by sub-regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Projections are for internal migration \r\ndriven by three slow-onset climate hazards (water stress, crop failure and SLR), and excluding rapid-onset hazards such as floods and tropical cyclones. As such, they \r\npresent a lower-bound estimate of potential climate change impacts on internal migration. Projections are for two warming scenarios: low emissions (RCP2.6) and high \r\nemissions (RCP8.5), both coupled with a socioeconomic pathway (SSP4) in which low-income countries have high population growth, high rates of urbanisation, and \r\nincreasing inequality within and among countries. By 2050, between 17.4 million (RCP2.6) and 85 million (RCP8.5) people (up to 4% of the region's total population) \r\ncould be moving as a consequence of climate impacts on water stress, crop productivity and SLR"


id: 96e2735d63fd8455b4a6cc3679c4e953
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content:
" More inclusive socioeconomic pathways with lower population growth \r\nare projected to reduce these risks. West Africa has the highest levels of climate migrants, potentially reaching more than 50 million, suggesting that climate impacts will \r\nhave a particularly pronounced impact on future migration in the region. In east Africa, out-migration hotspots include coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania, western \r\nUganda and parts of the northern highlands of Ethiopia. Kampala, Nairobi and Lilongwe may become hotspots of climate in-migration, coupled with existing rural to urban \r\nmigration trends, and a high likelihood of movement toward non-climate-related sources of income in cities. Source: (Rigaud et al., 2018)."


id: 5663cd63399b883201c9f3d8ba17918d
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content:
"Periods of low rainfall or flooding also contribute to social instability and upheaval across Africa (Miguel et al., 2004; Ralston, 2015; von \r\nUexkull et al., 2016; Harari and Ferrara, 2018; van Weezel, 2019; Ide et al., 2020). The link between rainfall and conflict appears likely\r\ndue to crop losses and declines in economic opportunity. One study found that dry growing seasons increase conflict incidence across \r\n36 African nations, with spillover effects from the location of climate shock to neighbouring communities (Harari and Ferrara, 2018). \r\nConflict-inducing impacts of drought have also been uncovered in Somalia (Maystadt and Ecker, 2014), Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and \r\nKenya (Fjelde and von Uexkull, 2012; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Couttenier and Soubeyran, 2014; Ralston, 2015; Linke et al., 2018; \r\nvan Weezel, 2019), the DRC (von Uexkull et al., 2020) and in a pooled sample of African and Asian countries (von Uexkull et al., 2016)"


id: ca531486829e407b975bae9a1f617eae
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29393
content:
" \r\nExtremely high rainfall may also incite conflict risk, although results are mixed (Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh and Kniveton, 2012). \r\nThis uncertainty, combined with large uncertainties in rainfall projections under climate change, render future impacts of human-caused \r\ngreenhouse gas emissions on rainfall-induced conflict in Africa highly uncertain."


id: 74c596380a800005af44be7e829f89a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15969
content:
"Sea level rise (SLR) and its associated hazards will present increasing \r\nclimate risk to African heritage in the coming decades (Figure 9.38; \r\nMarzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., 2018; Brito and Naia, \r\n2020). Although no continental assessment has quantified climate \r\nrisk to African heritage and little is known of near-term exposure to \r\nhazards such as SLR and erosion, for a handful of coastal heritage \r\nsites included in global or Mediterranean studies, 10 cultural sites are \r\nidentified to be physically exposed to SLR by 2100 at high emissions \r\nscenarios (RCP8.5) (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., \r\n2018), of which, seven World Heritage Sites in the Mediterranean are \r\nalso projected to face medium or high risk of erosion (Figure 9.38; \r\nReimann et al., 2018). Further, Brito and Naia (2020) identify natural \r\nheritage sites across 27 African countries that will be affected by \r\nSLR by 2100 (RCP8"


id: 65536ad1821688602396002e3efbc918
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content:
"5), of which 15 sites covering eight countries \r\ndemonstrated a high need for proactive management actions because \r\nof high levels of biodiversity, international conservation relevance and \r\nexposure to SLR (Figure  9.38). These nascent studies highlight the \r\npotential severity of risk and loss and damage from climate change \r\nto African heritage, as well as gaps in knowledge of climate risk to \r\nAfrican cultural and natural, particularly concerning bio-cultural \r\nheritage."


id: 974ceb159cfb64f92e9f8b0367395801
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21327
content:
"Historically, Africa has had a unique and sustainable architecture (Diop, \r\n2018) characterised by area-specific, traditional earthen materials and \r\nassociated Indigenous technology. Key examples include Tiebele in \r\nBurkina Faso, Walata in Mauritania, Akan in Ghana, Ghadames in Libya, \r\nOld Towns of Djenne in Mali (World Heritage Site) and other diverse \r\nearthen architecture across sub-Saharan Africa. Adegun and Adedeji \r\n(2017) indicate that earthen materials provide advantages in thermal \r\nconductivity, resistivity and diffusivity, indoor and outdoor temperature, \r\nas well as cooling and heating capacities. Moreover, earthen materials \r\nare recyclable and environmentally 'cleaner' (Sanya, 2012) because of \r\nthe absence or small quantity of cement in production, thus reducing \r\ncarbon emissions. Despite these advantages, the expertise and socio\u0002cultural ceremonies that accompany building and renewal of earthen \r\narchitecture are disappearing fast (Adegun and Adedeji, 2017)"


id: 51dfc1a5f3ea7a9a895aad097fcb9f31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 10342
content:
"Multi-year droughts have become more frequent in west Africa, and the 2015-2017 Cape Town drought was three \r\ntimes more likely due to human-caused climate change. Above 2degC global warming, drought frequency is projected \r\nto increase, and duration will double from approximately 2 to 4 months over north Africa, the western Sahel and \r\nsouthern Africa. Estimates of increased exposure to water stress are higher than those for decreases. By 2050, \r\nclimate change could expose an additional 951 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to water stress while also \r\nreducing exposure to water stress by 459 million people. Compared to population in 2000, human displacement \r\ndue to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to triple for a scenario of low population growth and 1.6degC \r\nglobal warming. Changing rainfall distributions together with warming temperatures will alter the distributions \r\nof disease vectors like mosquitoes and midges"


id: 38fec8f58e859e4bce51ffbab658f199
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content:
" Malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase \r\nin east and southern Africa and the Sahel under even moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by the 2030s, \r\nexposing an additional 50.6-62.1 million people to malaria risk."


id: ec3141b4686add0a7da81563af39a240
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content:
"With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, \r\nincreasing extinction risk across more of Africa. At 2degC global warming more than 10% of African species are at \r\nrisk of extinction. Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is limited by fencing, transport \r\ninfrastructure, and the transformation of landscapes to agriculture and urban areas. Many species will lose large \r\nportions of their suitable habitats due to increases in temperature by 2100. Coupled with projected losses of Africa's \r\nprotected areas, higher temperatures will also reduce carbon sinks and other ecosystem services. Many nature-based \r\nadaptation measures (e.g., for coral reefs, mangroves, marshes) are less effective or no longer effective above \r\n1.5degC of global warming"


id: dbc646a85a677b6ce510983f8ec1db66
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vector_id: 32092
content:
" Human-based adaptation strategies for ecosystems reach their limits as availability and \r\naffordability of land decreases, resulting in migration, displacement and relocation."


id: 50d27683cbe6fde3f9310e7d56fbb76d
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10162
content:
"Asian terrestrial-ecosystems change is driven by global \r\nwarming, precipitation and Asian monsoon alteration, \r\npermafrost thawing and extreme events like dust storms, along \r\nwith natural and human-related factors which are in interplay\r\n(high confidence). Treeline position in North Asian mountains moves \r\nupwards after the 1990s, while in Himalaya treeline demonstrates \r\na multi-directional shift, either moves upwards or does not show \r\nupslope advance, or moves downwards. This can be explained by \r\nsite-specific complex interaction of positive effect of warming on tree \r\ngrowth, drought stress, change in snow precipitation, land-use change \r\n(especially grazing) and other factors (high confidence). The increased \r\nconsiderable changes in biomes in Asia are a response to warming \r\n(medium confidence). Terrestrial and freshwater species, populations \r\nand communities are altered in line with climate change across Asia \r\n(medium to high confidence)"


id: 45d3e4b9adb21aeabcfcd823f2d75290
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8375
content:
" Climate change, human activity and \r\nlightning have caused the increase in wildfire severity and area burned \r\nin North Asia after the 1990s (medium confidence). Length of plant \r\ngrowth season has increased in some parts of East and North Asia, \r\nwhile the opposite trend, or no change at all, has been observed in \r\nother parts (high confidence). Observed biodiversity or habitat losses \r\nof animals plants have been linked to climate change in some parts \r\nof Asia (high confidence). There is evidence that climate change can \r\nalter species interaction or spatial distribution of invasive species in \r\nAsia (high confidence). Changes in ecosystems in Asia during the 21st \r\ncentury are expected to be driven by projected climatic, natural and \r\nsocioeconomic changes"


id: 59642ae222f5899df28ab1cafd4bd5cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11555
content:
" Across Asia, under a range of representative \r\nconcentration pathways and other scenarios, rising temperatures are \r\nexpected to contribute to a northward shift of biome boundaries and \r\nan upwards shift of mountain treeline (medium confidence). {10.4.2}"


id: e121957c75ce2789bcef009663e18f31
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32919
content:
"Mongolia and changes in crop, farming systems and crop areas in \r\nalmost all regions, with negative implications to food security (medium \r\nconfidence). In India, rice production can decrease from 10 to 30%, \r\nwhereas maize production can decrease from 25 to 70% assuming \r\na range of temperature increase from 1degC to 4degC. Similarly, rice \r\nproduction in Cambodia can decrease by 45% by 2080 under the \r\nhigh-emissions scenario. Occurrence of pests, such as the golden apple \r\nsnail (Pomacea canaliculate), associated with the predicted increase \r\nin climatically suitable habitats in 2080, threatens the top Asian rice\u0002producing countries including China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, \r\nVietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines and Japan"


id: 50fe9bc0d8f1032f1e2ac17bb65f40e9
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10189
content:
" Increasing \r\ntemperatures, changing precipitation levels and extreme climate \r\nevents, such as heatwaves, droughts and typhoons, will persist in being \r\nimportant vulnerability drivers that will shape agricultural productivity \r\nparticularly in South, Southeast and Central Asia. {10.4.5, Figure 10.6}"


id: 4a19d6c98622785697ec59993d119507
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9062
content:
"Climate change is increasing vector-borne and water-borne \r\ndiseases, undernutrition, mental disorders and allergy-related \r\nillnesses in Asia by increasing hazards such as heatwaves, \r\nflooding and drought, and air pollutants, in combination with \r\nmore exposure and vulnerability (high confidence). Sub-regional \r\ndiversity in socioeconomic and demographic contexts (e.g., ageing, \r\nurban compared with agrarian society, increasing population compared \r\nwith reduced birth rate, high income compared with low to middle \r\nincome) and geographic characteristics largely define the differential \r\nvulnerabilities and impacts within countries in Asia. Under the \r\nmedium-to-high emissions scenario, rising temperatures and extreme \r\nclimate events will have an increasing impact on human health and \r\nwell-being with varying types and magnitudes of impact across Asia \r\n(high confidence). More frequent hot days and intense heatwaves will \r\nincrease heat-related deaths"


id: df544c4d0977eda3f24647b1a10f3764
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32633
content:
" Increased floods and droughts will have \r\nadverse impacts on food availability and the prices of food, resulting \r\nin increased undernourishment in South and Southeast Asia. Increases \r\nin heavy rain and temperature will increase the risk of diarrhoeal \r\ndiseases, dengue fever and malaria in tropical and subtropical Asia. \r\n{10.4.7}"


id: 462a7dd68caf6261e219f3b5b8f8e068
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8423
content:
"Asian urban areas are considered high-risk locations from \r\nprojected climate change, extreme events, unplanned urbanisation \r\nand rapid land-use change (high confidence) but also sites of \r\nongoing adaptation (medium confidence). Asia is home to the \r\nlargest share of people living in informal settlements, with 332 million \r\nin Eastern and Southeast Asia, and 197 million in Central and Southern \r\nAsia. By 2050, 64% of Asia's population will be urban. Coastal cities, \r\nespecially in South and Southeast Asia, are expected to see significant \r\nincreases in average annual economic losses between 2005 and 2050 \r\ndue to flooding, with very high losses in East Asian cities under the high\u0002emissions scenario (high confidence). Climate change will amplify the \r\nurban heat-island effect across Asian cities (especially South and East \r\nAsia) at 1.5degC and 2degC temperature rise, both substantially larger than \r\nunder the present climate (medium evidence, high agreement)"


id: c0a11802f3fee6bdc67369061335c841
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27871
content:
" Under \r\nthe high-emissions scenario, higher risks from extreme temperature and \r\nprecipitation are projected for almost all cities (medium confidence), \r\nwith impacts on freshwater availability, regional food security, human \r\nhealth and industrial outputs. By 2080, 940 million to 1.1 billion urban \r\ndwellers in South and Southeast Asia could be affected by extreme heat \r\nlasting more than 30 d yr-1 (high confidence), with poorer populations \r\naffected the most. {10.4.6, Cross-Chapter Box URBAN in Chapter 6}"


id: 75f36dcabdb3cd091dc960deab2f3044
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vector_id: 16151
content:
"Climate change has caused direct losses due to the damage in \r\ninfrastructure, disruption in services and affected supply chains in \r\nAsia (medium confidence) and will increase risk to infrastructure \r\nas well as provide opportunities to invest in climate-resilient \r\ninfrastructure and green jobs (medium confidence). At higher \r\nwarming, key infrastructures, such as power lines, transport by roads \r\nand railways, and built infrastructures, such as airports and harbours, \r\nare more exposed to climate-induced extreme events, especially in \r\ncoastal cities (medium confidence). Evidence on urban adaptation \r\nacross Asia is growing with examples of infrastructural adaptation \r\n(e.g., flood protection measures, and climate-resilient highways and \r\npower infrastructure), institutional adaptation (e.g., sustainable land\u0002use planning, zoning plans), nature ecosystem-based solutions (e.g"


id: 1982de606ae7a1171c1825f9dc534844
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content:
", \r\nmangrove restoration, restoring and managing urban green spaces, \r\nurban farming), technological solutions (e.g., smart cities, early warning \r\nsystems) and behavioural adaptation (e.g., improved awareness and \r\npreparedness measures). However, adaptation actions tend to be in the \r\ninitial stages and more reactive (57% of urban adaptations focus on \r\npreparatory interventions, such as capacity building, and 43% of cities "


id: 32f216a9335bc9b8f834b3558600328f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Options such as climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem-based \r\nDRR and investing in urban blue-green infrastructure meet \r\nadaptation, mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals \r\nsimultaneously, presenting opportunities for climate resilient \r\ndevelopment (CRD) pathways in Asia (high confidence). Climate \r\nrisks, vulnerability and adaptation measures need to be factored into \r\ndecision making across all levels of governance (high confidence). To \r\nhelp achieve this, there is a need to advance the current understanding \r\nof climate impacts across sectors and spatio-temporal scales, and \r\nimprove on the current strategies in planning and budget allocation. \r\nMore accurate forecasting of extreme events, risk awareness and \r\nprioritising individual and collective decision making also need to \r\nbe addressed (high confidence)"


id: f1b2444496718999a52bd184dacde8a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Options for Asian countries are \r\ntransforming the risks of climate change into opportunities for the \r\nadvancement of projects in the energy sector, including promoting \r\ninvestment in non-fossil energies, securing local natural gas resources, \r\nenhancing water harvesting, adopting green building technologies \r\nand encouraging multi-stakeholder partnerships. However, there are \r\nsignificant barriers to CRD such as fragmented, reactive governance; \r\ninadequate evidence on which actions to prioritise and how to \r\nsequence them; and finance deficits. Some Asian countries and regions \r\noffer solutions to overcome these barriers: through use of advanced \r\ntechnologies (in situ observation and remote sensing, a variety of \r\nnew sensor technologies, citizen science, artificial intelligence and \r\nmachine learning tools); regional partnerships and learning; improved \r\nforecasting capabilities; and better risk awareness (high confidence). \r\n{10.5, 10.6}"


id: afefabb38f749b6fce9ddadab1aa79f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Figure 10.2 |  Detection and attribution of observed changes in Asia. Levels of Evidence (E), Agreement (A) and Confidence (C) are ranked by High (H), Medium (M) or \r\nLow (L). CID: climate-impact driver. References: (1) Heatwaves (Mishra et al., 2015; Rohini et al., 2016; Chen and Li, 2017; Panda et al., 2017; Ross et al., 2018); (2) Coastal urban \r\nflooding (Dulal, 2019); (3) Biodiversity and habitat loss (Wan et al., 2019); (4) Dust storms (Kelley et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2015; Alizadeh-Choobari et al., 2016; Nabavi et al., 2016); \r\n(5) Sea level rise (only for coastal cities) (Brammer, 2014; Shahid et al., 2016; Hens et al., 2018); (6) Urban heat island (UHI) effect (Choi et al., 2014; Santamouris, 2015; Estoque \r\net al., 2017; Ranagalage et al., 2017; Kotharkar et al., 2018; Li et al., 2018a; Hong et al., 2019c); (7) Permafrost thawing (Shiklomanov et al., 2017a; Biskaborn et al., 2019); (8) \r\nWildfire (Schaphoff et al., 2016; Brazhnik et al"


id: a5589114970f3cf3e381b5bdcc5927eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 23580
content:
", 2017); (9) Extreme rainfall events (in urban areas) (Ali et al., 2014); (10) Urban drought (Gu et al., 2015; Pervin et al., 2020); (11) \r\nPrimary production in ocean (Roxy et al., 2016); (12) Flood-induced damages (Fengqing et al., 2005); (13) Agriculture and food systems (Heino et al., 2018; Prabnakorn et al., 2018)."


id: 1b4fb36a6d6f43213f209c3f27b20961
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Projections of future changes in annual mean surface air temperature \r\nin Asia are qualitatively similar to those in the previous assessments \r\nwith greater warming at higher latitudes (i.e., North Asia) (high \r\nconfidence) (Gutierrez et al., 2021). Projected surface air temperature \r\nchanges in the Tibetan Plateau, Central Asia and West Asia are also \r\nsignificant (high confidence) (Gutierrez et al., 2021). The highest levels \r\nof warming for extremely hot days are expected to occur in West and \r\nCentral Asia with increased dryness of land (high confidence) (SR1.5). \r\nOver mountainous regions, elevation-dependent warming will continue \r\n(medium confidence) (Hock et al., 2019). Glaciers will generally shrink, \r\nbut rates will vary among regions (high confidence) (Wester et  al., \r\n2019). Thawing permafrost presents a problem in northern areas of \r\nAsia, particularly Siberia (Parazoo et al., 2018)"


id: 8c618000c2e9a88fd4613df77801cf75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Temperature rise will \r\nbe strongest in winter in most regions, while it will be the strongest \r\non summer in the northern part of West Asia and some parts of South \r\nAsia where a desert climate prevails (high confidence) (Gutierrez et al., \r\n2021). The wet-bulb globe temperature, which is a measure of heat \r\nstress, is likely2\r\n to approach critical health thresholds in West and \r\nSouth Asia under the RCP4.5 scenario, and in some other regions, such \r\nas East Asia, under the RCP8.5 scenario (high confidence) (Lee et al., \r\n2021a; Seneviratne et al., 2021). The occurrence of extreme heatwaves \r\nwill very likely increase in Asia. Projections show that a sizeable part \r\nof South Asia will experience heat stress conditions in the future (high \r\nconfidence). It is virtually certain that cold days and nights will become \r\nfewer (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)."


id: 7e828e1078c1f52cb84b4a43bac1dfa5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"There is no significant long-term trend during 1951-2017 in the numbers \r\nof tropical cyclones (TCs) with maximum winds of 66.37 km  h-1 or \r\nhigher forming in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea \r\n(medium confidence). There are substantial inter-decadal variations in \r\nbasin-wide TC frequency and intensity in the western North Pacific (Lee \r\net al., 2020a). Numbers of strong TCs (maximum winds of 124.93 km h-1\r\nor higher) also show no discernible trend since 1977 when complete \r\nwind-speed data near TC centre become available (JMA, 2018). \r\nAccording to Cinco et al. (2016), for TCs in the Philippines there are \r\nno significant trends in the annual number of TCs during 1951-2013. \r\nTheir analysis showed that the Philippines have been affected by fewer \r\nTCs above 124.93 km h-1, but affected more by extreme TCs (above \r\n158.11 km h-1)"


id: cf116691ba24e2a61e93e291f388fb91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" There has been a significant northwestward shift in \r\nTC tracks since the 1980s, and a detectable poleward shift since the \r\n1940s in the average latitude where TCs reach their peak intensity in \r\nthe western North Pacific (medium confidence) (Lee et al., 2020a)."


id: b22139fe30be86f576e299a915445752
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Projections of future annual precipitation change are qualitatively \r\nsimilar to those in the previous SREX and AR5 assessments (IPCC, \r\n2021). A very likely large percentage increase in annual precipitation \r\nis projected in South and North Asia (high confidence) (Douville \r\net al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021a). Precipitation is projected to decrease \r\nover the northwest part of the Arabian Peninsula and increase over \r\nits southern part (medium confidence) (Gutierrez et al., 2021). Both \r\nheavy and intense precipitation are projected to intensify and become \r\nmore frequent in South, Southeast and East Asia (high confidence) \r\n(Seneviratne et  al., 2021). There will be a large increase in flood \r\nfrequency in these monsoon regions (Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). \r\nWithout further mitigation efforts, this will lead to continued loss of lives \r\nand infrastructure. SR1.5 assessed higher risk from heavy precipitation \r\nevents at 2degC compared with 1.5degC of global warming in East Asia"


id: 7bcaaff3dafd47d89c38e9919812d731
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Relative SLR associated with climate change in Asia will range from \r\n0.3-0.5 m in SSP1-2.6 to 0.7-0.8 m in SSP5-8.5 for 2081-2100 relative \r\nto 1995-2014 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). In coastal regions, evaluation \r\nof SLR is necessary at the regional scale to assess the impacts on \r\ncoastal sectors. Liu et  al. (2016c) investigated the regional-scale SLR \r\nusing dynamic downscaling from the three global-climate models in the \r\nwestern North Pacific. In their projection in the case following the RCP8.5 \r\nscenario, the regional sea level rises along Honshu Island in Japan during \r\n2081-2100 relative to 1981-2000 are 6-25 cm higher than the global \r\nmean SLR due to the dynamic response of the ocean circulation. For the \r\nimpact assessment of coastal hazards, the total SLR included extreme \r\nevents due to storm surge and high ocean waves, which are influenced \r\nby the changes in TCs (Seneviratne et al., 2021)"


id: 72903f6dbf69355157c7be933fc04e79
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content:
" Mori and Takemi (2016) \r\nsummarised the characteristics of TCs in the western Pacific in the past \r\nand in the future, and the extreme value of significant wave height \r\nincreased in several regions. There is considerable increase in the return \r\nlevels along the China coast under 2.0degC warming compared with that \r\nunder the 1.5degC warming scenario (Feng et al., 2018b)."


id: 120cec6126bfe98321c2464c2cf49cf8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Detection and attribution: Does climate change drive migration? Ascertaining the role of climate change in migration is difficult \r\nand contested (see Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7 and RKR-H in Chapter 16), with observation-based studies either linking \r\nextreme event incidence, weather anomalies and environmental change with migration numbers or drivers (McLeman, 2014; Singh et al., \r\n2019a; Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020), and projection studies looking at particular risks such as SLR or drought by linking increasing \r\nwarming (often through representative concentration pathways, RCPs) and population growth"


id: 8146a158a7c8bdfe7cd7319dcfd65646
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Despite methodological disagreement on \r\ndetection and attribution of migration due to climate change, there is medium confidence that higher warming and associated changes in \r\nfrequency and intensity of slow-onset events (such as drought and sea level rise) and rapid-onset events (such as cyclones and flooding) \r\nwill increase involuntary displacement in the future, especially under SSP3 and SSP4 pathways (Dasgupta et al., 2014a; Davis et al., 2018; \r\nRigaud et al., 2018; Hauer et al., 2020). But its role is smaller than non-climatic socio-economic drivers of migration (Wodon et al., 2014; \r\nAdger et al., 2021)."


id: b5106f3987ce623e3a8cbf8b6df992e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Current migration and displacement. One in three migrants comes from Asia and the highest ratio of outward migrants is seen from \r\nhazard-exposed Pacific countries (Ober, 2019). In 2019, approximately 1900 disasters triggered 24.9 million new displacements across \r\n140 countries; in particular, Bangladesh, China, India and the Philippines each recorded more than 4 million disaster displacements (IDMC, \r\n2019). Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia see significant disaster-associated displacements: for example, heavy rain-induced flooding in \r\nKhatlon (Tajikistan) triggered 5400 new displacements; landslides in the Jalal-Abad (Kyrgyzstan) saw 4700 new displacements; and \r\nfloods in Altai, Tuva and Khakassia (Russia) displaced 1500 people. Iran reported the highest sub-regional figures with >520,000 new \r\ndisaster-related displacements in 2019 (IDMC, 2019). In Southeast and East Asia, cyclones, floods and typhoons triggered internal \r\ndisplacement of 9"


id: bf5046332a260b2b204ecef2a2718d3f
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"6 million people in 2019, almost 30% of total global displacements (IDMC, 2019). With most migrants in the region \r\nbeing temporary migrant workers, loss of jobs and wages among them have been particularly severe due to adverse economic climate \r\ntriggered by COVID-19 (ESCWA, 2020). It has also resulted in large-scale returns of migrant workers, and remittances have declined \r\ndrastically (Khanna, 2020; Li et al., 2021). Remittances to Eastern Europe and Central Asia are expected to decline 16.1% from 57 billion \r\nUSD in 2019 to 48 billion USD in 2020. Remittances in East Asia and the Pacific are estimated to fall 10.5% over the same period, from \r\n147 billion to 131 billion USD (United Nations, 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant impacts on migrants (Rajan, 2020) in \r\nthe region, and some countries have targeted migrants in economic stimulus packages or income-support programmes; however, access \r\nto such support has been heterogeneous."


id: 44c29a3fa3702eb1a15313eef9a80551
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Projected migration. Regional variation is significant across Asia. By one estimate, in South Asia, internal climate migrants (i.e., those \r\nmigrating due to climate change and associated impacts such as water scarcity, crop failure, SLR and storm surges) are projected to be \r\n40 million by 2050 (1.8% of regional population) under high warming (Rigaud et al., 2018). While methodological critiques remain on \r\nprojected migration estimates, what is certain is that some countries will be more affected that others; it is estimated that in southern \r\nBangladesh, SLR could displace 0.9-2.1 million people by direct inundation by 2050 (Jevrejeva et al., 2016; Davis et al., 2018). In South \r\nAsia, migration hotspots include the Gangetic Plain and the Delhi-Lahore corridor, and coastal cities such as Chennai, Chittagong, Dhaka \r\nand Mumbai, which will be simultaneously exposed to climate-change impacts, major migration destinations and amplified rural-urban \r\nmigration (Ober, 2019)"


id: e77f87e0d4376f5f9a5fc8c9d8e7315d
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content:
" Importantly, there is low agreement on projected numbers (see Boas et al., 2019) with uncertainties around how \r\nlocal policies and individual behaviours will shape migration choices. Even in high-risk places, people might choose to stay or be unable \r\nto move, resulting in 'trapped' populations (Zickgraf, 2019; Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2020). There is currently inadequate evidence to ascertain \r\nthe nature and numbers of trapped populations currently or in the future."


id: 47fd238e7556981e7b01b6484ec63882
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content:
"Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on energy and \r\nindustrial systems. It has a particularly wide and profound impact on \r\nenergy systems (energy development, transportation, supply, etc.). \r\nWith global warming, the energy consumption for heating in winter \r\ndecreases, while the energy consumption for cooling in summer \r\nsignificantly increases, but the overall energy demand shows an \r\nupwards trend (high confidence) (Sailor, 2001; Szabo et al., 2018). Such \r\ndemands in summer seasons will by far exceed any energy savings \r\nfrom the decrease in heating demand due to warmer winters. Higher \r\ndemand for cooling due to hotter temperatures has become a major \r\nchallenge in the energy sector in all countries. Furthermore, decreased \r\nwater levels due to lower precipitation reduces hydroelectric output. \r\nThis is particularly the case for countries such as Syria and Iraq with \r\nlarge hydroelectric capacity (Hamid and Raouf, 2009)"


id: 31d362fc6bba8f205022c72ca221c787
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5252
content:
" Additionally, the \r\ndecrease in water levels negatively affects low-carbon energy systems \r\nsuch as concentrated solar power and thermal-generation plants that \r\nrequire regular cooling and cleaning."


id: cea142c5d9f2e67ef0c9ecae055b0529
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30054
content:
"Climate change adds extra pressure to current energy infrastructures \r\nin most countries where systems failures and blackouts are already \r\ncommon (Assaf, 2009). In the wake of extreme weather events (e.g., \r\nheatwaves), energy infrastructures remain inadequate to cope. This is \r\nparticularly the case for countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and \r\nPalestine, with poor electricity infrastructures (Jordan, 2015). Extreme \r\nweather events could generate grave damage to power plants, most \r\nbeing located only a few metres above sea level, as well as power\u0002transmission towers and lines. In Lebanon, a small country where there \r\nare no Indigenous energy resources, the disruption of shipping of fuel \r\nsupplies due to extreme weather events is a major risk. Other extreme \r\nweather events, such as floods and sandstorms, expose energy and \r\nindustrial systems in the coastal areas due to a rise in sea level"


id: a729d69ad7bfe15177d535aeac3e218a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" Countries \r\nof the Arabian Peninsula are projected to experience significant inland \r\nflooding as sea levels rise (Hamid and Raouf, 2009). In East Asia wet \r\nsnow accretion enhanced by global warming often causes damage to \r\nelectric power lines (Sakamoto, 2000; Ohba and Sugimoto, 2020)."


id: 9aa47acfd776e52dc0271a0d5118032e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Asia faces an energy security problem even with the rapid growth in \r\nproduction and trade (IEEJ, 2018). Among 13 developing countries with \r\nlarge energy consumption in Asia, 11 are exposed to high energy security \r\nrisk (WEC, 2018). This will be a major challenge for the sustainable \r\ndevelopment of Asia due to the vulnerability to global energy supplies \r\nand price volatility (Nangia, 2019). Asia lacks natural energy resources \r\nand has the smallest oil reserve but largely relies on fossil fuels. The \r\ndependency on fossil fuels was as high as 88.3% in China, 72.3% in \r\nIndia, 89.6% in Japan and 82.8% in Republic of Korea in 2013 (BP, \r\n2014). Many countries in South Asia rely on a single source to supply \r\nmore than half of the electricity (i.e., 67.9% from coal for India, 99.9% \r\nfrom hydropower for Nepal, 91.5% from natural gas for Bangladesh \r\nand 50.2% from oil for Sri Lanka) (Shukla et al., 2017)"


id: ef4d2506a8d45e8bcc58a2444ea761b0
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content:
" Additionally, \r\ncooperation in Asia to create the integrated energy systems needed \r\nfor enhancing overall security is still at a very preliminary stage due \r\nto countries having different strategic plans and lack of cooperation \r\namong them on the common concerns (Kimura and Phoumin, 2013)."


id: 40d44897af586185db4bc5e6e4f7ff90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Some countries in the Arabian Peninsula, such as the United Arab \r\nEmirates (UAE), are adopting an array of approaches to enhance the \r\nadaptive capacity of the energy infrastructure and diffuse the risk of \r\nclimate change over a larger area (e.g., energy efficiency, demand \r\nmanagement, storm planning for power plants). In Al Mashrek, \r\nbuilding institutional capacity in the energy sector is a necessary first \r\nstep to mainstream climate-change adaptation (CCA). Countries such \r\nas Lebanon and Jordan have already made progress in mainstreaming \r\nCCA into electricity infrastructure. In the UAE, buildings account \r\nfor more than 80% of the total electricity consumption. There are \r\ncurrently a set of measures and regulations on building conditions and \r\nspecifications that are being applied to increase energy efficiency in \r\nbuildings, but the rehabilitation and upgrading of old buildings still \r\nrequire further efforts (Environment, 2015)"


id: 53c4e0ba456ef106c09a36d7fbb6c914
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content:
" In Kuwait, one adaptation \r\nmeasure to dust storms is through the reduction of the proportion \r\nof open-desert land from 75 to 51%, the increase in protected areas \r\nfrom 8 to 18% and greenbelt projects in desert areas (Kuwait, 2015). \r\nAddressing climate-change impact on energy systems in Lebanon, \r\nJordan, Syria, Iraq and Palestine needs to simultaneously consider \r\nother interlinked challenges of population growth, rapid urbanisation, \r\nrefugee influx, conflict and geopolitical location. To address these \r\nchallenges and provide solutions for CCA, the promotion of multi\u0002stakeholder partnerships is key to breaking the silo approach."


id: a8918ea592f4c998de2231d9440c2c2e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 24049
content:
"Alpine treeline position in Asian mountains in recent decades either \r\nmoves upwards in North Asia or demonstrates multi-directional shifts \r\nin Himalaya (high confidence). Since AR5, in North Asia new evidence \r\nhas appeared of tree expansion into mountain tundra and steppe, \r\nof intensive reproduction and increase in tree stands productivity in \r\nthe past 30-100  years at the upper treeline in the Ural Mountains \r\n(Shiyatov and Mazepa, 2015; Zolotareva and Zolotarev, 2017; Moiseev \r\net  al., 2018; Sannikov et  al., 2018; Fomin et  al., 2020; Gaisin et  al., \r\n2020), in the Russian Altai Mountains (Kharuk et al., 2017a; Cazzolla \r\nGatti et al., 2019) and in the Putorana Mountains (Kirdyanov et al., \r\n2012; Pospelova et al., 2017; Grigor'ev et al., 2019)"


id: 969cdf4da6e53012911fbfd7f31850cd
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 21215
content:
" Lower treelines \r\nin the southernmost Larix sibirica forests in the Saur Mountains, \r\neastern Kazakhstan, have suffered from increased drought stress in \r\nrecent decades causing forest regeneration and tree growth decrease, \r\nand tree mortality increase (Dulamsuren et al., 2013). In Jeju Island, \r\nRepublic of Korea, recent warming has enhanced Quercus mongolica\r\ngrowth at its higher distribution and has led to Abies koreana (ABKO) \r\ngrowth reduction at all elevations, except the highest locality. Thus, \r\nthe combination of warming, increasing competition and frequent \r\ntropical cyclone disturbances could lead to population decline or even \r\nextinction of ABKO at Jeju Island (Altman et al., 2020). In the Himalaya, \r\nthe treeline over recent decades either moves upwards (Schickhoff \r\net al., 2015; Suwal et al., 2016; Sigdel et al., 2018; Tiwari and Jha, 2018) "


id: c7b66169de0f1c03dad7b6a11803160d
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29000
content:
"Since AR5, new evidence has appeared of alterations in terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater species, populations and communities in line with climate \r\nchange across Asia (medium to high confidence) (Arias et al., 2021). In \r\nNorth Asia, temperature increase and droughts have promoted spread \r\nnorthward of the current silk moth outbreak (has affected nearly \r\n2.5 x 106 ha) in Central Siberia dark taiga since 2014 (Kharuk et al., \r\n2017b; Kharuk et al., 2020). The climatic range of the Colorado potato \r\nbeetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) in 1991-2010 expanded east- and \r\nnorthward in Siberia and the Russian Far East compared with the \r\n1951-1970 range (Popova, 2014). The climatic range of Ixodes ricinus, \r\na vector of dangerous human diseases, expanded into Central Asia \r\nand south of the Russian Far East (Semenov et al., 2020). A butterfly \r\n(Melanargia russiae) in the Middle Urals moved northward (Zakharova \r\net al., 2017)"


id: 4520929251cdf33c419fdbcb0f93a2bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 8296
content:
" Thrush birds in West Siberia penetrated northward up to \r\nthe limits of the sparse woodlands (Ryzhanovskiy, 2019a). The increase \r\nin the length of frost-free period observed in the Ilmen Nature Reserve, \r\nMiddle Urals, during recent decades is supposed to be interlinked with \r\nchanges in the amplitude and frequency of population waves of bank \r\nvole (Kiseleva, 2020). In Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve, Russian Altai, \r\nin the period 2005-2015, alpine plant species have shifted towards \r\nhigher altitudes by 5.3 m on average (Artemov, 2018). Wild reindeer \r\nherds in Taimyr, north of Central Siberia, migrated northward to the \r\nArctic Sea coast in hot summers between 1999-2003 and 2009-2016 \r\nbecause of an earlier massive emergence of bloodsucking insects \r\n(Pospelova et al., 2017). In Yakutia, the ranges of red deer, elk and the \r\nnorthern pika are expanding, and the winter survival of the mouse-like \r\nrodents has increased (Safronov, 2016)"


id: 8f69cc92ef271e68e64d9dc7aeb2c28a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20114
content:
" In the Chukchi Sea, in recent \r\ndecades the average duration polar bears spent onshore increased by \r\n30 d (Rode et al., 2015b) in line with global warming and the rapid \r\ndecline of their sea ice habitat (Derocher et al., 2013; Jenssen et al., \r\n2015; Rode et al., 2015a)."


id: 33552b3fe52d9b354be9d890fe31cb7a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5494
content:
"Climate change along with land-use and land-cover change influences \r\nsoil organic carbon content, microbial biomass C, microbial respiration \r\nand the soil carbon cycle in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran (Soleimani \r\net al., 2019; Francaviglia et al., 2020). In the fir forest ecosystems of \r\nthe Tibetan Plateau, winter warming affects the ammonia-oxidising \r\nbacteria and archaea, thus altering the nitrogen cycle (Huang et al., \r\n2016). Ecosystem carbon pool in the spruce forests of the northeast \r\nTibetan Plateau was reduced by about 25% by deforestation due \r\nto recent decades of climate warming as well as wood pasture and \r\nlogging (Wagner et  al., 2015). In Mongolia's forest steppe, recent \r\ndecades of drought- and land-use-induced deforestation has reduced \r\nthe ecosystem carbon stock density by about 40% (Dulamsuren et al., \r\n2016)"


id: 11658d9fb54b5dcede3e2a39fc7571de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 218
content:
" In Inner Mongolia, the predicted decreases in precipitation and \r\nwarming for most of the temperate grassland region could lead to a \r\npH change, which would contribute to a soil C-N-P decoupling that \r\ncould reduce plant growth and production in arid ecosystems (Jiao \r\net al., 2016)."


id: e16f59763cdd055b2d8cf391cf65d055
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32959
content:
"that neither the start of growing season (SOS) nor the end of growing \r\nseason (EOS) presented detectable progressive patterns at the regional \r\nlevel in 1998-2012, except for the steppe-desert (6% of the total \r\narea) (Sha et al., 2016). In the Tianshan Mountains in China, the NPP of \r\nonly 2 out of 12 types of vegetation increased in spring, and the NPP \r\nof only one type increased in autumn from 2000-2003 to 2012-2016 \r\n(Hao et al., 2019). In Republic of Korea, from 1970 to 2013, the SOS has \r\nadvanced by 2.7 d per decade, and the EOS has been delayed by 1.4 d \r\nper decade (Jung et al., 2015). During the past decade, leaf unfolding \r\nhas accelerated at a rate of 1.37 d yr-1, and the timing of leaf fall has \r\nbeen delayed at a rate of 0.34 d yr-1 (Kim et al., 2019d). Cherry blossoms \r\nare predicted to flower 6.3 and 11.2 d earlier after 2090 according \r\nto scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively (Bae et  al., 2020)"


id: cd8a0cbdc6a6b7c4abbe37fc7272b41b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29873
content:
" On \r\nthe Tibetan Plateau, it was found that the SOS has advanced and the \r\nEOS has been delayed over the past 30-40 years (Yang et al., 2017). \r\nUsing normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets and \r\nground-based Budburst data (Wang et al., 2017c) found no consistent \r\nevidence that the SOS has been advancing or delaying over the Tibetan \r\nPlateau during the past two to three decades. The discrepancies among \r\ndifferent studies in the trends of spring phenology over the Tibetan \r\nPlateau could be largely attributed to the use of different phenology \r\nretrieval methods. An uncertainty exists with the relationship between \r\nland-surface phenology and climate change estimated by satellite\u0002derived NDVI because these indices are usually composite products of \r\na number of days (e.g., 16 d) that could fail to capture more details. \r\nBesides, due to lack of in situ observations, the SOS and EOS at large \r\nareas cannot be easy defined (Zhang et al., 2017d)."


id: e9ad22e0eadaad1e8fec698603405f8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 34263
content:
"Climate change, human activity and lightning determine increases in \r\nwildfire severity and area burned in North Asia (high detection with \r\nmedium-to-low attribution to climate change). In North Asia, the \r\nextent of fire-affected areas in boreal forest can be millions of hectares \r\nin a single extreme fire year (Duane et al., 2021) and nearly doubled \r\nbetween 1970 and 1990 (Brazhnik et al., 2017). During recent decades, \r\nthe number, area and frequency of forest fires increased in Putorana \r\nPlateau (north of Central Siberia), in larch-dominated forests of Central \r\nSiberia and in Siberian forests as a whole. This increase is in line with \r\nan increase in the average annual air temperature, air temperature \r\nanomalies, droughts and the length of fire season (Ponomarev et al., \r\n2016; Kharuk and Ponomarev, 2017; Pospelova et  al., 2017). The \r\nnumber of forest fires and damaged areas in Gangwon Province and \r\nthe Yeongdong area in the 2000s increased by factors of 1.7 and 5"


id: def3c0e910cd5d418d67866dfa5f6b4c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32571
content:
"6, \r\nrespectively, compared with the 1990s (Bae et  al., 2020). Climate \r\nchange is not the sole cause of the increase in forest fire severity \r\n(Wu et  al., 2014; Wu et  al., 2018d). Ignition is often facilitated by \r\nlightning (Canadell et al., 2021), and over 80% of fires in Siberia are \r\nlikely anthropogenic in origin (e.g., (Brazhnik et al., 2017). Gas field \r\ndevelopment and Indigenous tundra burning practices that may get \r\nout of control contribute to fire frequency in the forest-tundra of West \r\nSiberia (Adaev, 2018; Moskovchenko et al., 2020). Climate change in \r\ncombination with socioeconomic changes has resulted in an increase \r\nin fire severity and area burned in South Siberia, and illegal logging \r\nincreases fire danger in forest-steppe Scots pine stands (Ivanova et al., \r\n2010; Schaphoff et al., 2016)."


id: f360c5521b4c173a5c309b2104d769c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 35800
content:
"In North Asia, in Central Siberia and south of West Siberia, the growth \r\nindex of Siberian larch based on tree-ring width increased with the \r\nonset of warming and changed in antiphase with aridity in the 1980s \r\n(Kharuk et al., 2018). In Mongolia and Kazakhstan, the temperature \r\nincrease over the previous decade promoted radial stem increment of \r\nthe Siberian larch. However, the simultaneous influence of increased \r\ntemperature, decreased precipitation and increased anthropogenic \r\npressure resulted in widespread declines in forest productivity and \r\nreduced forest regeneration, and increased tree mortality (Dulamsuren \r\net  al., 2013; Lkhagvadorj et  al., 2013a; Lkhagvadorj et  al., 2013b; \r\nDulamsuren et al., 2014; Khansaritoreh et al., 2017). In Eastern Taimyr, \r\ngrowing season, the number of flowering shoots, annual increment, \r\nsuccess of seed ripening and vegetation biomass have increased \r\nconsiderably in recent decades (Pospelova et  al., 2017)"


id: bd64b82f1a77b6ac90e6af5c639d2ced
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27362
content:
" In Vishera \r\nNature Reserve, northern Ural Mountains, annual temperature has \r\nincreased in recent decades in parallel with a summer temperature \r\ndrop and an increase in summer frost numbers. As a result, trends in \r\nvegetation change are mostly unreliable (Prokosheva, 2017)."


id: 74d270466603d4da9d958049f9135a72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15975
content:
"Considerable changes in plant and animal species distribution under \r\nwarming stress are expected in Asia until 2100 (high confidence). \r\nIn East Asia, Cunninghamia lanceolate, a fast-growing and widely \r\ndistributed coniferous timber species in China, is projected to increase \r\ndistribution, to decrease the establishment probability and to reduce \r\ntotal NPP by the 2050s (Liu et  al., 2014c). In the monsoon regions \r\nof Asia, by the end of the 21st century, NPP is projected to increase \r\nby 9-45% (Ito et  al., 2016). Under climate change on the Korean \r\nPeninsula (KP), the potential habitat for Abies nephrolepis is the \r\nnorthern part of KP, and A. koreana will disappear from Jeju Island \r\nand shrink significantly in the KP (Yun et al., 2018), while evergreen \r\nforests will expand to the northern part of KP (Koo et al., 2018; Lim \r\net al., 2018). It is expected that under projected warming, fig species \r\nin China will expand to higher latitudes and altitudes (Chen et  al., \r\n2018c)"


id: 754be11bea045472fdb9d35f72ec722a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 16042
content:
" In Japan, under the A1B scenario, 89% of the area currently \r\ncovered by the Fagus crenata-dominant forest type will be replaced \r\nby Quercus spp.-dominant forest types (Matsui et al., 2018). Current \r\ntrends of climate change will reduce distribution of tall (2-2.5 m \r\nhigh) herb communities in Japan, and will increase suitably for them \r\nin the Russian Far East (Korznikov et al., 2019). A range expansion of \r\nLobaria pindarensis, an endemic epiphytic lichen in the HKH region, is \r\nprojected to move to the northeast and to higher altitudes in response \r\nto climate change, although the species' low dispersal abilities and \r\nthe local availability of trees as a substratum will considerably limit \r\nlatitudinal and altitudinal shifts (Devkota et al., 2019)."


id: 1105e3a6d09f26f3575e47bb82e28058
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 155
content:
"Across Asia, under a range of representative concentration pathways \r\n(RCPs) and other scenarios, rising temperatures are expected to \r\ncontribute to a northward shift of biome boundaries and an upwards \r\nshift of mountain treeline (medium confidence). Northward shift and \r\narea change of bioclimatic zones in Siberia (Anisimov et  al., 2017; \r\nTorzhkov et  al., 2019) and northeast Asia (Choi et  al., 2019) are \r\nprojected. Projected changes in vegetation in China at the end of \r\nthe 21st century reveal that the area covered by cold-dry potential \r\nvegetation decreases as the area covered by warm-humid potential \r\nvegetation increases (Zhao et  al., 2017a). Forest expansion into \r\nmountain tundra of the northern Urals is expected (Sannikov et  al., \r\n2018). In Republic of Korea, projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8"


id: 7f2ef236fc0e8fb5adf6080f5b9308a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 17560
content:
"5 in the \r\n2070s, suitable area loss of six subalpine tree species, namely, Korean \r\nfir, Khingan fir, Sargent juniper, Yeddo spruce, Korean yew and Korean \r\narborvitae, range from 17.7 +- 20.1% to 65.2 +- 34.7%, respectively \r\n(Lee et al., 2021b). Korean fir forests would be replaced by temperate \r\nforests at lower elevations, while they would continuously persist at \r\nthe highest elevations on Mt. Halla, Jeju Island and Republic of Korea \r\n(Lim et al., 2018). Himalayan birch at its upper distribution boundary \r\neither is projected to move upwards (Schickhoff et al., 2015; Bobrowski \r\net  al., 2018) or considered to downslope as a response to global\u0002change-type droughts (Liang et al., 2014)"


id: e5110955651ded6147a2614fc3748b69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 33530
content:
" Upwards shift in elevation \r\nof bioclimatic zones, decreases in area of the highest elevation zones \r\nand large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones can \r\nbe expected by the year 2050 throughout the transboundary Kailash \r\nSacred Landscape of China, India and Nepal, and likely within the \r\nHimalayan region more generally (Zomer et al., 2014)."


id: 5be2e55238f99da19352f7b5d574fa35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 11971
content:
"The climatic range of Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) under RCP4.5 \r\nwill expand north- and east-ward to Siberia, the Russian Far East and \r\nCentral Asia (Popova et  al., 2016). In Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberia, it is \r\nprojected that the needle cast disease caused by fungi from the genus \r\nLophodermium Chevall. in the Scots pine nurseries would shift northward \r\nup to 2080 under A2 and B1 scenarios (Tchebakova et al., 2016). All \r\nfour RCP scenarios showed north-ward expansion of vulnerable regions \r\nto pine wilt disease in China, Republic of Korea, the Russian Far East \r\nand Japan under climate conditions in 2070 (Hirata et al., 2017), and \r\nduring 2026-2050 in Japan (Matsuhashi et al., 2020). It is noteworthy \r\nthat disease expansion depends not only on climatic factors but also on \r\nthe dispersal capacity of insect vectors, the transportation of infected \r\nlogs to non-infected regions and the susceptibility of host trees (e.g., \r\nGruffudd et al., 2016)"


id: ba2f88b560d0737523429bb9371b1a8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26832
content:
"Future climate change would cause biodiversity and habitat loss in \r\nmany parts of Asia using modelling approaches (high confidence). \r\nWarren et al. (2018) projected that extirpation risks to terrestrial taxa \r\n(plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) from 2degC to 4.5degC \r\nglobal warming in 12 'priority places' in Asia, under the assumption of \r\nno adaptation (i.e., dispersal) by the 2080s, is from 12.2-26.4% to 29-\r\n56% (Table 10.1; Figure 10.4). Under different scenarios, future climate \r\nchange could reduce the extent of a suitable habitat for giant pandas \r\n(Fan et al., 2014), moose (Alces alces) (Huang et al., 2016), black muntjac \r\n(Muntiacus crinifrons) (Lei et  al., 2016) and the Sichuan snub-nosed \r\nmonkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) (Zhang et al., 2019d) in China; the \r\nPersian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran (Ashrafzadeh et al., \r\n2019a); the Bengal tiger (Mukul et al"


id: c019134708e9528cbb5a6b70e44d12aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 27775
content:
", 2019) in India; and four tree\u0002snail species (Amphidromus) in Thailand (Klorvuttimontara et al., 2017). \r\nHowever, climate change would have little impact on the habitats of \r\nthe Asian elephant, but would cause extinction of the Hoolock gibbon "


id: 1c91a7731d522cecc246a0f8dae0015a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1945
content:
"The impact of future climate change on invasive species may be species\u0002or region specific (medium confidence). Climate change would promote \r\ninvasion of a highly invasive aquatic plant Eichhornia crassipes (You \r\net al., 2014), Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Qin et al., 2014), alligator weed \r\n(Alternanthera philoxeroides) (Wu et  al., 2016), invasive alien plant \r\nSolidago canadensis (Xu et  al., 2014), three invasive woody oil-plant \r\nspecies (Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis and Aleurites moluccana) \r\n(Dai et  al., 2018), and 90 of ~150 poisonous plant species (Zhang \r\net  al., 2017a) in China; six mostly highly invasive species (Ageratum \r\nhoustonianum Mill., Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis \r\nsuaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth and\r\nParthenium hysterophorus L.) in Nepal (Shrestha et al. 2018); 11 invasive \r\nplant species in the western Himalaya (Thapa et al., 2018); alien plants \r\nin Georgia (Slodowicz et  al"


id: 2b041a7ea53fb7d18bd640ac6d3afd1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4199
content:
", 2018); the invasive green anole (Anolis \r\ncarolinensis) in Japan (Suzuki-Ohno et al., 2017); the Giant African Snail "


id: d1b15b2a1d76b83abb7cfe9deaf478f4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30524
content:
"century compared with the historical (1960-1990) estimate. This \r\nmoves forest composition towards greater contribution of hardwoods \r\n(e.g., Betula spp., Populus spp.) (Brazhnik et  al., 2017). This shifting \r\nwas also proved by observations in northern Mongolia, where boreal \r\nforest fires likely promote the relative dominance of B. platyphylla and \r\nthreaten the existence of the evergreen conifers, Picea obovata and \r\nPinus sibirica (Otoda et al., 2013). For Tuva Republic, warming ambient \r\ntemperatures increase the potential evapotranspiration demands \r\non vegetation, but if no concurrent increase in precipitation occurs, \r\nvegetation becomes stressed and either dies from temperature-based \r\ndrought stress or more easily succumbs to insects, fire, pathogens or \r\nwind throw (Brazhnik et  al., 2017). Although Torzhkov et  al. (2019) \r\nalso projected fire risk (FR) increase in Tuva Republic, they expect \r\nFR decrease in the Irkutsk region and Yakutia under RCP8"


id: 59e26b99007d1be497f69ce69dcde
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11647
content:
"5, and FR \r\ndecrease in major parts of Central and East Siberia under RCP4.5 for \r\n2090-2099. This discrepancy is due to differences in models, climate \r\nprojections, fire severity metrics and other assumptions. According to \r\nglobal projections, FR will increase in Central Asia, Russia, China and \r\nIndia under a range of scenarios (Sun et al., 2019)."


id: def8d25a522f518c0e120638d04c6ad8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32575
content:
"Both natural and managed ecosystems, ecosystem services and \r\nlivelihoods in Asia will potentially be substantially impacted by changing \r\nclimate (Wu et al., 2018d). There will be increased risk for biodiversity, \r\nparticularly many endemic and threatened species of fauna and flora \r\nalready under environmental pressure from land-use change and other \r\nregional and global processes (Zomer et al., 2014; Rashid et al., 2015; Choi \r\net al., 2019). Biomes shift not only serves as a signal of climate change \r\nbut also provides important information for resources management and \r\necotone ecosystem conservation. A widespread upwards encroachment \r\nof subalpine forests would displace regionally unique alpine tundra \r\nhabitats and possibly cause the loss of alpine species (Schickhoff et al., \r\n2015). In North Asia, emissions from fires reduce forests' ability to \r\nregulate climate"


id: 6f0e2b232a9a983b7759bd43f390bae9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15097
content:
" A warmer and longer growing season will increase \r\nvulnerability to fires, although fires can be attributed both to climate \r\nwarming and to other human and natural influences. Recent field-based \r\nobservations revealed that the forests in South Siberia are losing their \r\nability to regenerate after fire and other landscape disturbances under \r\na warming climate (Brazhnik et al., 2017). Data support the hypothesis \r\nof a climate-driven increase in fire frequency in boreal forests with the \r\npossible turning of boreal forests from a carbon sink to a carbon source \r\n(Ponomarev et al., 2016; Schaphoff et al., 2016; Brazhnik et al., 2017; \r\nPonomarev et  al., 2018); however, warming resulting from forest fire \r\nis partly offset by cooling in response to increased surface albedo of \r\nburned areas in a snow-on period (Chen and Loboda, 2018; Chen et al., \r\n2018a; Jia et al., 2019; Lasslop et al., 2019)."


id: 191c6b95b6280fa0267ad74dec514e7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1443
content:
"Five of 15 endemic freshwater fish species in Iran will lose some parts \r\nof their current suitable range under climate change by 2070 (Yousefi \r\net  al., 2020). In line with projected large increases in mean water \r\ntemperature, the strongest increase is projected in exceeded frequency \r\nand magnitude of maximum temperature tolerance values for \r\nfreshwater minnow (Zacco platypus) in East Asia for 2031-2100 (Van \r\nVliet et al., 2013). Climate change under the A1B scenario is projected to \r\ndecrease diversity (-0.1%) along with increased local richness (+15%) \r\nand range size (+19%) of stream macroinvertebrates in the Changjiang \r\nRiver catchment, southeast China, for the period 2021-2050, while \r\nland-use change is predicted to have the strongest negative impact \r\n(Kuemmerlen et al., 2015)"


id: eb0edd5b8362ec880e9e58dc1f00ada8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34486
content:
" The Asian clam Corbicula fluminea Muller, an \r\ninvasive species native to southeast China, the Republic of Korea and \r\nsoutheast Russia, is projected to invade Southeast Asia under all four \r\nRCP scenarios for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 periods (Gama et al., \r\n2017). Projected SLR, related aquatic salinisation and alteration in fish \r\nspecies composition may have a negative impact on poor households in \r\nsouthwest coastal Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2017a)."


id: 964259c367a05d2f3b6dfe4faddbf5f3
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vector_id: 21149
content:
"The West Asia region, especially the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognised as one of the most important dust-source areas \r\nin the world (Cao et al., 2015). The inhabitants of each of these settlements have experienced a decline in dust storms in recent decades, \r\nsince the late 1980s at Nouakchott, since 2004 at Zabol and since the late 1970s at Minqin. Iran is mostly arid or semiarid, with deserts \r\nmaking up at least 25 million hectares of the country (NASA, 2018). Iran is experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such \r\nas drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts and floods (Vaghefi et al., 2019). There are three \r\nkey factors responsible for the generation of sand and dust storms: strong wind, lack of vegetation and absence of rainfall (EcoMENA, \r\n2020). It seems that all of this is closely related to the heating surface and the occurrence of local dry instabilities (Ghasem et al., 2012)"


id: 2dc8221eca4cd6461f86639375609e41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 4641
content:
" \r\nAccording to EcoMENA (2020), sand and dust storms cause significant negative impacts on society, the economy and the environment \r\nat the local, regional and global levels. The seasonality of the numbers of dusty days (NDD) in Iran shows the highest frequency in \r\nsummer followed by spring and autumn (Modarres and Sadeghi, 2018). In the past decade, West Asia has witnessed more frequent and \r\nintensified dust storms affecting Iran and other Persian Gulf countries (Nabavi et al., 2016). In terms of long-term frequency of dust \r\nevents, observational analyses show an overall rising trend of the frequency of Iran's dust events in recent years (Alizadeh-Choobari et al., \r\n2016). Results show that there has been a direct relationship between dust event, drought and years of intensive drought (Dastorani \r\nand Jafari, 2019)"


id: fed05b51998abaa7fe2788c28a439bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37631
content:
" Compared with the period 1980-2004, in the period 2025-2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods \r\nof extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for >=120 d: precipitation <2 mm, \r\nTmax >=30degC) as well as wet (for <=3 d: total precipitation >=110 mm) conditions and a higher frequency of floods (Vaghefi et al., 2019). The \r\nslope of precipitation in West Asia shows that during the period 2016-2045 in January, February, July and August, precipitation would \r\nincrease and decrease in other months of the year (Ahmadi et al., 2018). Temperatures in Central Asia have risen significantly within \r\nrecent decades, whereas mean precipitation remains almost unchanged (Haag et al., 2019); however, climatic trends can vary greatly \r\nbetween different sub-regions, across altitudinal levels and within seasons (Haag et al., 2019)."


id: be594bcdc1678d12291388395a396cad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27496
content:
"conservation; to facilitate species movements across climatic gradients, \r\nan increase in landscape connectivity can be elaborated by setting up \r\nhabitat corridors between nature reserves and along elevational and \r\nother climatic gradients (Brito-Morales et al., 2018; D'Aloia et al., 2019; \r\nUnited Nations Climate Change Secretariat, 2019). Assisted migration \r\nof species should be considered for isolated habitats as mountain \r\nsummits or where movements are constrained by poor dispersal ability. \r\nIntroducing seeds of the species to new regions will help to protect them \r\nfrom the extinction risk caused by climate change (Mazangi et al., 2016)"


id: 930ad1d117210a28d1ac43099abcde8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 20650
content:
" \r\nIn Asian boreal forests, a strategy and integrated programmes should \r\nbe developed for adaptation of the forests to global climate change, \r\nincluding sustainable forest management, firefighting infrastructure and \r\nforest fuel management, afforestation, as well as institutional, social \r\nand other measures in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) \r\n15 'Life on Land' (Isaev and Korovin, 2013; Kattsov and Semenov, 2014; \r\nBae et  al., 2020). Improvements in forest habitat quality can reduce \r\nthe negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem \r\nservices (Choi et al., 2021). Adaptation options for freshwater ecosystems \r\nin Asia include increasing connectivity in river networks, expanding \r\nprotected areas, restoring hydrological processes of wetlands and rivers, \r\ncreating shade to lower temperatures for vulnerable species, assisted \r\ntranslocation and migration of species (Hassan et  al., 2020; Chapter \r\n2)"


id: 7f0300085cc6b7fdf8e250316b031615
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 17538
content:
" Reduction of non-climate anthropogenic impacts can enhance the \r\nadaptive capacity of ecosystems (Tchebakova et al., 2016)."


id: 6db5e4521e812c060d7e370b8e1aaf2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14867
content:
"Degradation and loss of coral reefs can affect about 4.5 million people \r\nin Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean (Lam et al., 2019). In the coral \r\nreef fisheries sector, there are about 3.35 million fishers in Southeast \r\nAsia and 1.5 million fishers in the Indian Ocean (Teh et al., 2013). The \r\neconomic loss under different climate-change scenarios and fishing \r\nefforts were estimated to range from 27.78 to 31.72  million USD \r\nannually in Nha rang Bay, Vietnam. A survey conducted in Taiwan, \r\nProvince of China, showed that the average annual amount that people \r\nwere personally willing to pay was 35.75 USD and the total amount \r\nwas 0.43 billion USD. These high values indicate the need to preserve \r\nthese coral reef ecosystems (Tseng et al., 2015). In Bangladesh, the \r\ncoral reef of St. Martin's Island contributes 33.6 million USD yr-1 to the \r\nlocal economy, but climate change, along with other anthropogenic \r\nactivities, has been identified as a threat these habitats (Rani et al"


id: f09c465b516b5866cd83683b6df4e864
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35357
content:
"An ecosystem-based approach to managing coral reefs in the Gulf \r\nof Thailand is needed to identify appropriate marine protected area \r\n(MPA) networks and to strengthen marine and coastal resource \r\npolicies in order to build coral reef resilience (Sutthacheep et  al., \r\n2013). Broadening the scope to develop novel mitigation approaches \r\ntowards coral protection through the use of symbiotic bacteria and \r\ntheir metabolites (Motone et al., 2018; Motone et al., 2020) has been \r\nsuggested. Coral culture and transplantation within the Gulf are \r\nfeasible for helping maintain coral species populations and preserving \r\ngenomes and adaptive capacities of Gulf corals that are endangered \r\nby future thermal-stress events (Coles and Riegl, 2013). Greater focus \r\non understanding the flexibility and adaptability of people associated \r\nwith coral reefs, especially in a time of rapid global change (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al"


id: 8c639d722a6487118bbad78923c7468b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 19602
content:
", 2019), and a well-designed research programme for \r\ndeveloping a more targeted policy agenda (Lam et al., 2019), is also \r\nrecommended. Cutting carbon emissions (Bruno and Valdivia, 2016) "


id: 8b2592d52559e8130488b548d913d6bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19421
content:
"Globally, the extent of the blue carbon ecosystem has been estimated \r\nat 120,380 km2\r\n, with the highest spread by mangroves at 114,669 km2\r\n(95.3%), followed by seagrass meadows at 2,201 km2\r\n (1.8%) and salt \r\nmarshes at 3510 km2\r\n (2.9%) (Himes-Cornell et al., 2018). In Asia, the \r\ntotal extent of these three ecosystems is 33,224 km2\r\n, forming 27.6% \r\nof the global total with the highest spread of mangrove at 32,767 km2\r\n, \r\nwhich forms 28.6% of the global mangrove coverage. The area of \r\nseagrass meadows spread in Asia has been estimated as 236 km2\r\n and \r\nsalt marsh 220 km2\r\n,which forms 10.8 and 6.03% of the respective \r\necosystems globally (Himes-Cornell et al., 2018). Found at the land-\r\nsea interface, seagrasses provide varied services apart from acting as \r\necosystem engineers providing shelter and habitat for several marine \r\nfauna which are fished in several Asian countries (Jeyabaskaran et al., \r\n2018; Nordlund et al., 2018; Unsworth et al"


id: 6d982bd7ed49df3deefca0b888f963b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14854
content:
"Mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass meadows (collectively called \r\ncoastal blue carbon ecosystems) have sequestered carbon dioxide \r\nfrom the atmosphere continuously over thousands of years, building \r\nstocks of carbon in biomass and organic rich soils. Carbon dynamics \r\nin mangrove-converted aquaculture in Indonesia indicate that the \r\nmean ecosystem carbon stocks in shrimp ponds are less than half of \r\nthe relatively intact mangroves (Arifanti et al., 2019). Conversion of \r\nmangroves into shrimp ponds in the Mahakam Delta have resulted in \r\na carbon loss equivalent to 226 years of soil carbon accumulation in \r\nnatural mangroves. In the Philippines, abandoned fishpond reversion \r\nto former mangrove has been found to be favourable for enhancing \r\nclimate change mitigation and adaptation (Duncan et  al., 2016)"


id: fc2a49f000826658c8ed33067d5799ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37177
content:
" \r\nIntegrated mangrove-shrimp farming, with deforested areas not \r\nexceeding 50% of the total farm area, has been suggested to support \r\nboth carbon sequestration as well as livelihood (Ahmed et al., 2018)."


id: 149aa478678db7de1d50c7cc6461078e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 749
content:
"Seaweeds are an important biotic resource capable of capturing carbon \r\nand used widely as food, medicine and as raw material for industrial \r\npurposes. Warming and altered pH can affect seaweeds in different \r\nways (Gao et al., 2016; Gao et al., 2017; Gao et al., 2018a; Wu et al., \r\n2019b). Outbreak of intense blooms of species like Ulva rigida (Gao \r\net al., 2017) and Ulva prolifera (Zhang et al., 2019 f) have increased due \r\nto varied factors including climate change. These blooms have created \r\nhuge economic losses in the Yellow Sea affecting local mariculture, \r\ntourism and the functioning of the coastal and marine ecosystems \r\n(Zhang et  al., 2019 f). Increased temperature was found to enhance \r\nthe dark respiration and light compensation point of Ulva conglobate, \r\nwhich thrives in the mid-intertidal to upper subtidal zones, while the \r\naltered pH showed a limited effect (Li et al., 2020)"


id: b8304616f51e82ce26a1f401ce108f22
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26508
content:
" Elevated temperature \r\nsignificantly enhanced growth, photosynthetic performances and \r\ncarbon-use efficiency of Sargassum horneri in both elevated and ambient \r\nCO2 levels suggesting that the present greenhouse effect would benefit \r\nthe golden tide blooming macroalgae Sargassum horneri, which might \r\nenhance both the frequency and scale of golden tide (Wu et al., 2019b)."


id: 18b16841656870f38c0ab17cfa7cc4ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1380
content:
"Varied responses to CRS in the China seas have been observed for \r\nsmall pelagic fishes (Ma et  al., 2019) and cephalopods (Ichii et  al., \r\n2017). The winter and summer SSTs have shown evidence of decadal \r\nvariability with abrupt changes from cold to warm in substantial \r\nassociation with climate indices to which coastal cephalopods in the \r\nChina seas respond differentially, with some benefiting from warmer \r\nenvironments while others respond negatively (Pang et  al., 2018). \r\nIn the western and eastern North Pacific marine ecosystem, it is \r\nindicated that groundfish may suffer more than pelagic fish (Yati et al., \r\n2020). Habitat Suitability index models using SST, chlorophyll-a, sea \r\nsurface height anomaly (SSHA) and sea surface salinity (SSS), as well \r\nas fishing effort, strongly indicate that Neon flying squid is affected \r\nby interannual environmental variations and undertakes short-term \r\nmigrations to suitable habitat, affecting the fisheries (Yu et al., 2015)"


id: 970884a356e863eb87cea72ef0d4b2d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21277
content:
" \r\nThe 2015-2016 El Nino was found to impact coral reefs of shallower \r\nregions (depth of 5-15 m) in South Andaman, India, more than those \r\nbeyond 20 m (Majumdar et al., 2018). On the southeast coast of India, \r\nwith bleaching largely mediated by the SST anomaly and during the \r\nrecovery period, macroalgae outgrowth has been observed (2.75%) \r\nindicating impacts on the benthic community (Ranith and Kripa, 2019). \r\nIn the South China Sea, the increase in SST was found to be higher \r\nthan predicted in recent decades, while the pH decreased at a rate of "


id: 3796dbfd3f499ef5725fdb8af6499187
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6126
content:
"The vulnerabilities to disaster in coastal regions with high population \r\ndensities are reported in several studies (Sajjad et al., 2018) that have \r\nassessed the vulnerabilities of coastal communities along the Chinese \r\ncoast and shown that roughly 25% of the coastline, and more than \r\n5 million residents, are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland \r\nChina, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Husnayaen \r\net al. (2018) assessed the Semarang coast in Indonesia and showed \r\nthat 20% of the total coastline (48.7 km) is very highly vulnerable. \r\nMangroves continue to face threats due to pollution, conversion for \r\naquaculture, agriculture, apart from climate-based threats like SLR \r\nand sea erosion (Richards and Friess, 2016; Romanach et  al., 2018; \r\nWang et  al., 2018b; Friess et  al., 2019)"


id: d34421483aed5729a70dd4b21146e590
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30765
content:
" Hypersalinity, storm effects \r\non sediment deposition, fishery development and land erosion are \r\nresponsible for most of the Sunderban mangrove degradations leading \r\nto loss of livelihood (Uddin, 2014; Paul, 2017). In the Sunderbans of \r\nAsia, climate change is expected to increase river salinisation, which \r\nin turn could significantly negatively impact the valued timber species, "


id: 7486de32ee9ff7481281e094d5143d1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15933
content:
"The UN's (2019) report on climate action and support trends highlights \r\nthat the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems are mainly \r\nincreased risks due to flooding, inundation due to extreme events, \r\ncoastal erosions, ecosystem processes and, in the case of fisheries, \r\nvariations in population or stock structures due to ocean circulation \r\npattern, habitat loss degradation and ocean acidification. Analysis of \r\ndata on the occurrence of varied natural hazards from 1900 to 2019 \r\nhas shown that tropical cyclones, riverine floods and droughts have \r\nincreased significantly, and the impacts of these events on coastal \r\ncommunities are also severe and destructive. The UN's average score \r\nfor SDG Goal 14 (Life Under Water) for Asia was estimated as 46 \r\namong the scores of 40 nations, and the Ocean Health Biodiversity \r\nindex was comparatively high (average 87"


id: a6caa7196e90e3d34ebea9cdf9ea6497
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23760
content:
"9); however, the indices \r\nshow that more region-specific action plans are required to achieve \r\nthe UN 2030 goal for Life Under Water."


id: 72d198ca9f5c0addb3dd3c9ec39af88d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15678
content:
"Apart from the human impacts, the ecology and resource abundance \r\nof coastal waters have been found to be impacted by extreme events. \r\nDuring tropical cyclones ecological variations, like lowering of SST, an \r\nincrease in chlorophyll-a and a decrease in oxygen (Chacko, 2019; \r\nGirishkumar et al., 2019) have been observed. Global analyses of such \r\nevents have indicated that they may have an impact on the fishery directly \r\nby creating unfavourable ecological conditions and destruction of critical \r\nhabitats indirectly by affecting the eggs and larvae as well as subsequent \r\nfishery recruitment (McKinnon et al., 2003; Bailey and Secor, 2016). In \r\nthe South China Sea in July 2000, during a 3-day cyclone period, an \r\nestimated thirtyfold increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration was \r\nobserved (Lin et al., 2003). The estimated carbon fixation resulting from \r\nthis event alone is 0.8 Mt, or 2-4% of the SCS's annual new production \r\n(Lin et al., 2003)"


id: 43c827f419059f39e33b4390c5a56f58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8072
content:
" Since an average of 14 cyclones pass over this region \r\nannually, the contribution of cyclones to the annual new production has \r\nbeen estimated to be as high as 20-30% (Lin et al., 2003)."


id: 5aee6dfbad7fa3414f6d3cbe218abba5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11821
content:
"In the Southeast Asia region threats from both warming and acidification \r\nhas indicated that by 2030, 99% of reefs will be affected, and by \r\n2050, 95% are expected to be in the highest levels of the 'threatened' \r\ncategory (Burke et al., 2011), similar to global corals (Frieler et al., 2013; \r\nBruno and Valdivia, 2016). Modelling results indicate that even under \r\nRCP scenarios, the functional traits of coral reefs can be affected (van \r\nder Zande et al., 2020) and coral communities will mainly consist of \r\nsmall numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species \r\n(Kubicek et al., 2019). Increases in temperature (+3degC) and pCO2 (+400 \r\nmatm) projected for this century can reduce the sperm availability for \r\nfertilisation, which along with adult population decline either due to \r\nclimate change or anthropogenic impacts (Hughes et al"


id: 5389079ed63ddf7df22a81100befa66c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 10610
content:
", 2017) can affect \r\ncoral reproductive success thereby reducing the recovery of populations \r\nand their adaptation potential (Albright and Mason, 2013; Hughes et al., \r\n2018; Jamodiong et al., 2018). In the southern Persian Gulf, increased \r\ndisturbance frequency and severity has caused progressive reduction \r\nin coral size, cover and population fecundity (Riegl et al., 2018), and \r\nthis can lead to functional extinction. Connectivity required to avoid \r\nextinctions has increased exponentially with disturbance frequency \r\nand correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. In the \r\nPhilippines experiments have also proved that scleractinian corals, such \r\nas A. tenuis, A. millepora and F. colemani, which spawn their gametes \r\ndirectly into the water column, may experience limitations from sperm \r\ndilution and delays in initial sperm-egg encounters that can impact \r\nsuccessful fertilisation (de la Cruz and Harrison, 2020)."


id: 9a00de4330487dd81e1cf0b31955967f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21754
content:
"In South Asia, restoration programmes have been largely successful \r\n(Jayanthi et  al., 2018) but in some regions partly a failure due to \r\ninappropriate site selection, poor post-planting care and other issues \r\n(Kodikara et al., 2017). Using remote sensing it has been observed that \r\nthere are high recovery rates of mangroves in a relatively short period \r\n(1.5 years) after a powerful typhoon, indicating that natural recovery \r\nand regeneration would be a more economically and ecologically \r\nviable strategy. Better mangrove management through mapping is \r\nsuggested (Castillo et al., 2018; Gandhi and Jones, 2019). Statistical \r\ntools developed for modelling biomass and timber volume (Phan et al., \r\n2019), and allometric models to estimate above-ground biomass and \r\ncarbon stocks (Vinh et al., 2019), will be useful in estimating stocks in \r\nmangroves"


id: d44f2ddeeb5e4ec0afe13dbd5177aefc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30923
content:
" Future mangrove loss may be offset by increasing national \r\nand international conservation initiatives that incorporate mangroves, \r\nsuch as the SDGs, Blue Carbon, and Payments for Ecosystem Services \r\n(Friess et al., 2019). Since seagrass meadows and marine macroalgae \r\nare important habitats capable of combating impacts of climate \r\nchange, the need for a global networking system with participation of \r\nstakeholders has been suggested (Duffy et al., 2019)."


id: 85b8e44692f7fff846e94511e355f51c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18577
content:
"In Asia and elsewhere the interplay between the challenge of \r\nsustainability and climate change poses major policy challenges (von \r\nStechow et al., 2016). The pursuit of SDG 6--protection and restoration \r\nof water-related ecosystems, universal and equitable access to safe \r\nand affordable drinking water for all, improvement in water quality by \r\nreducing pollution, elimination of dumping and significant reduction \r\nin release of hazardous chemicals and materials, and treatment of \r\nwaste water through recycling and safe reuse globally--could be \r\ndirectly or indirectly challenged and undermined by climate change \r\n(Parkinson et al., 2019). Dissolved organic materials from sewage can \r\nenhance CO2 emissions, especially in rapidly urbanising river systems \r\nwhich receive untreated waste water and/or sewage across developing \r\ncountries (Kim et al., 2019b)"


id: e2a6944fe516fc9a402dac8e674a5afb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33164
content:
" Conversely, policy interventions aimed \r\nat significant augmentation in water-use efficiency across all sectors, \r\nensuring sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address \r\nwater scarcity and a significant reduction in the number of victims of \r\nwater scarcity, especially the poor and marginalised, could mitigate \r\nvulnerabilities caused by climate change. More interdisciplinary \r\nresearch is needed on highly precarious future pathways and the \r\nintersection between CIDs and non-climate drivers in order to \r\nanticipate and mitigate diverging and uncertain outcomes."


id: 63a26056405a0c2d5cc2a8fb67b865c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13247
content:
"Immerzeel et  al. (2020) have ranked all mountain-dependent water \r\ntowers according to their water-supplying role and the downstream \r\ndependence of ecosystems, societies and economies. The resulting \r\nGlobal Water Tower index indicates that the upper Indus basin is both \r\nthe most important and the most vulnerable water tower unit (WTU) \r\nin the world. A WTU is defined as 'the intersection between major river \r\nbasins and a topographic mountain classification based on elevation \r\nand surface roughness'. Whereas all important transboundary WTUs \r\nin Asia remain highly vulnerable, it is the Indus WTU (inhabited \r\nby approximately 235 million people in the basin in 2016 (which is \r\nprojected to increase by 50% by the middle of 21st century) where the \r\naverage annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.9degC between \r\n2000 and 2050, with wide-ranging consequences and trans-sectoral \r\nspillovers"


id: c03f5315ca9c6e5e91ac56aa5e17afc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27805
content:
" The Indus WTU faces a deep risk produced by a combination \r\nof factors including water stress, ineffective governance, hydropolitical \r\ntensions, population growth and density, urbanisation and social \r\ntransformations, with a significant bearing on SDG 6 on water, SDG 2 \r\non food and SDG 7 on energy."


id: 58d3826b5dd2803678c67b5d4c2ac7b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 11472
content:
"According to a quantitative scenario assessment for future water \r\nsupply and demand in Asia to 2050, based on global climate change \r\nand socioeconomic scenarios (Satoh et  al., 2017), water demand in \r\nsectors such as irrigation, industry and households will increase by 30-\r\n40% around 2050 in comparison with 2010. Water stress is likely to be \r\nmore pronounced in Pakistan, and northern parts of India and China. \r\nBy mid-21st Century, the international transboundary river basins of \r\nAmu Darya, Indus, Ganges could face severe water scarcity challenges \r\ndue to climatic variability and changes acting as stress multipliers \r\n(high confidence). Within a country as well, the water scarcity could \r\nbe exacerbated, such as in India and China, due to various drivers like \r\npopulation increase and climate change"


id: 9af32b5927de8ba438953857f86784fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Research on the differentiated \r\nimpacts of climate change on freshwater sources across the Asian \r\nsub-regions remains inconclusive and requires assessment at the sub\u0002regional scale (IPCC, 2014b; Wester et al., 2019)."


id: 4b7f9e5d6c5e56a1234a5767170e384a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Freshwater resources in Asia, which include both surface water and \r\ngroundwater, are considerably strained, and changing climate is \r\nlikely to act as a major stress multiplier (Dasgupta et al., 2015; Fant \r\net al., 2016; Gao et al., 2018c; Mack, 2018). In Southern and Eastern \r\nAsia (SEA) nearly 200  million people are at risk of serious water\u0002stressed conditions. Effective mitigation might reduce the additional \r\npopulation under threat by 30% (60  million people), but still there \r\nis a 50% chance that 100  million people across SEA might face a \r\n50% increase in water stress and a 10% chance that water stress will \r\nalmost double in the absence of wide-ranging, multi-scalar adaptive \r\nmeasures (Gao et al., 2018c)"


id: 860a4ee3d088db8d2adfbf3e36c35a06
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" With Millennium Development Goal 7c, \r\nwhich aimed to halve the population that had no sustainable access to \r\nwater and basic sanitation before 2015, not having been fully realised, \r\nand Sustainable Development Goal 6 on water and sanitation not \r\nhaving been effectively operationalised, the water stress is likely to \r\nincrease by the end of 2030 (Weststrate et al., 2019)."


id: 7f0422394fb55a66b8127ec2d5675c8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"The combined impacts of climate change and non-climate drivers \r\non hydrological processes and water resources in transboundary \r\nrivers in diverse regions of Asia were well noted in AR5. In Central \r\nAsia, withdrawal is approximately equal to water availability, with \r\nTurkmenistan and Uzbekistan as the most water-stressed countries \r\nin the region (Karthe et  al., 2017; Russell, 2018). A study on water \r\navailability in mainland South Asia has pointed in the direction of \r\ndecreasing precipitation trends in recent years, which have also \r\ncontributed to the increasing incidence and severity of droughts (Liu \r\net al., 2018b). There are reports of increase in occurrence and severity of \r\ndifferent forms of droughts in the Koshi River basin (Central Himalaya) \r\n(Wu et al., 2019a; Hamal et al., 2020; Dahal et al., 2021; Nepal et al., \r\n2021). Figure 10.5 shows the water stress in the HKH region"


id: 361e1db0ab8af9be9661798564bc5a50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" The water \r\nstress is relatively higher in the western region compared with the \r\ncentral and eastern regions."


id: f09a6836eab7bee21c3dfde5586619c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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"in the plains (Sharma et al., 2019). The HKH region stores about half \r\nof the ice mass in HMA, provisioning freshwater to almost 869 million \r\npeople in the Indus, Tarim, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. \r\nWhile the warming climate increases the melt-water runoff enhancing \r\nwater supply, it is indeed at the cost of glacier-mass reduction that \r\nwould eventually reduce melt water and impact the people's livelihood \r\ndownstream in the future (Nie et al., 2021). The melt runoff from the \r\nregion plays an important role in downstream agriculture such as in the \r\ncase of Indus where two-thirds of total irrigation withdrawal is from \r\nmelt runoff in the pre-monsoon season (Biemans et al., 2019). Changes \r\nin cryosphere and other environmental changes have already impacted \r\npeople living in high-mountain areas and are likely to introduce new \r\nchallenges for water, energy and food security in the future (Borodavko \r\net al., 2018; Adler et al., 2019; Bolch, 2019; Hoelzle et al"


id: 7ca69dcae06e01df0acf6a02d84c1810
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"2016 (Kaab et al., 2018), and also surges which were frequently found \r\nin this vast region (e.g. Bhambri et al., 2017; Mukherjee et al., 2017; \r\nDing et  al., 2018), threatening the security of the local and down \r\nstreaming societies (high confidence).The total amount and area of \r\nglacier lakes increased during last decade (Zhang et al., 2015; Chen \r\net al., 2017c) (high confidence). Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by \r\ncatastrophic floods caused by the failure of glacial lakes (Cook et al., \r\n2018; Ahluwalia et al., 2016). In Kedarnath, India (western Himalaya), \r\na flash flood was triggered by glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) \r\nreleased from the Chorabari glacial lake in June 2013 which caused \r\nextensive flooding, erosion of riverbanks and damage to downstream \r\nvillages and towns, as well as the loss of several thousand lives (Rafiq \r\net al., 2019; Das et al., 2015)"


id: c661780650531ede701afd4b64e1d926
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Nepal has experienced 24 GLOF events \r\nwhich have caused considerable loss of life and damage to property \r\nand infrastructure (Icimod, 2011). There is high confidence that current \r\nglacier shrinkages have caused more glacial lakes to form in most \r\nmountainous regions, including HMA, but there is limited evidence \r\nthat the frequency of GLOF has changed (Hock et  al., 2019). Veh \r\net al. (2018) reported no clear trend of increasing GLOF events in the \r\nHimalayan region, although the southern Himalaya was identified as \r\na hotspot region compared with the western Himalaya. Research has \r\nshown a decrease in glacier area of 24% in Nepal between 1980 and \r\n2010 (Bajracharya et al., 2014)."


id: 30c3b0559115b388fe39f3145b7e44d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Climate-change impacts on both the quantity and quality of \r\nfreshwater resources will hinder the attainment of SDG-6 (Water, \r\n2020). Contamination of drinking water is caused by wildfires and \r\ndrought that contribute to elevated levels of nutrients (nitrogen, \r\nphosphorus and sulphates), heavy metals (lead, mercury, cadmium \r\nand chromium), salts (chloride and fluorides), hydrocarbons, pesticides \r\nand even pharmaceuticals. Heavy rains and flooding also increase \r\nnutrients, heavy metals and pesticides, as well as turbidity and faecal \r\npathogens in water supplies-especially when sewage treatment plants \r\nare overwhelmed by runoff (Mora et al., 2018). Pharmaceuticals and \r\npersonal-care products (from source to disposal) are contributing to \r\nthe vulnerability of urban waters"


id: 57c024940742b7078e1495d6cab14ffe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" A study of vulnerability assessment \r\nof urban waters in highly populated cities in India and Sri Lanka, \r\nthrough analysing the concurrence of Pharmaceuticals and Personal \r\nCare Products (PPCPs), enteric viruses, antibiotic-resistant bacteria, \r\nmetals, faecal contamination and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), \r\nalso underlines the need for a resilience strategy and action plan (Rafiq \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 1e89d4c67d1164e92099fd77b84d7aff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"There is a projection of an increase in runoff until the 2050s mainly \r\ndue to an increase in precipitation in the upper Ganges, Brahmaputra, \r\nSalween and Mekong basins, where it could be due to accelerated \r\nmelting in the upper Indus basin. The runoff could increase in the \r\nrange of 3-27% (7-12% in Indus, 10-27% in Ganges and 3-8% in \r\nBrahmaputra) by mid-century compared with the reference period \r\n(1998-2008) for Himalayan river basins depending on the different \r\nRCP scenarios (Lutz et  al., 2014a). Likewise, Khanal et  al. (2021) \r\nsuggest contrasting responses to climate change for HMA rivers in \r\nwhich, on the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a \r\nshift in magnitude and peak of water availability, whereas on the \r\nannual scale, total water availability increases for the headwaters. The \r\nfuture flow would increase in Nepal's Central Himalaya region (Nepal, \r\n2016; Ragettli et al., 2016; Bajracharya et al., 2018)"


id: fd46a6728bd58232816084b051b22a5e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" These changes in \r\nwater availability in space and time will have serious consequences \r\nin downstream water availability for various sectoral uses and \r\necosystem functioning in Asia (Nepal et al., 2014; Green et al., 2015; \r\nArfanuzzaman, 2018; Wijngaard et al., 2018; Rasul and Molden, 2019); \r\nhowever, future water availability is largely uncertain due to significant \r\nvariation in climate-change projections among different global climate \r\nmodels (Nepal and Shrestha, 2015; Lutz et al., 2016; Li et al., 2019a)."


id: 13002152b469bef9f2e6f133e187713d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 498
content:
"Asia is no exception to the global trend of lake ecosystems, which \r\nprovide drinking water to millions of people, being degraded (Jenny \r\net  al., 2020) and severely threatened at the same time by climate \r\nchange (Mischke, 2020). Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, \r\nsurface temperature, evaporation and water level react dramatically \r\nto this threat, and there are negative implications for water quantity \r\nand quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and \r\ntransportation (Woolway et  al., 2020). Due to substantial regional \r\nvariability, the quantum of future changes in lake water storage \r\nremains uncertain. A recent study (Liu et al"


id: f2cdd3c0f8e4efe6070bf9ef28413d00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
", 2019a) using Moderate \r\nResolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 500-m spatial resolution global \r\nwater product data, and applying the least squares method to analyse \r\nchanges in the area of 14 lakes in Central Asia from 2001 to 2016, has \r\nshown that the area-shrinkage changes for all plains lakes in the study \r\nregion could be attributed to climate change and human activities."


id: 49c3c37c7618f7cbcd6baa41b41f71e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 9003
content:
"Significantly, climate change will add to already existing vulnerabilities. \r\nIn the case of the Yellow River basin in China, underlining the interface \r\nbetween future water scarcity and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic \r\ndrivers, a recent study expects moderate-to-severe water scarcity \r\nover six Yellow River sub-catchments under the RCP4.5 scenario, and \r\nanticipates that human influences on water scarcity will be worse than \r\nthat of climate change, with water availability in the downstream being \r\nimpacted by concurrent changes in land use and high temperature (Omer \r\net  al., 2020). Nearly 8% of internationally shared or transboundary \r\naquifers (TBAs), ensuring livelihood security for millions of people \r\nthrough sustaining drinking water supply and food production, are \r\ncurrently overstressed due to human overexploitation (Wada and \r\nHeinrich, 2013)"


id: 20b26d31f0e636293115b107bae5af5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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" The Asia Pacific region has the highest annual water \r\nwithdrawal due to its geographic size, growing population and irrigation \r\npractices, and water for agriculture continues to consume 80% of the \r\nregion's resources (Taniguchi et al., 2017b; Visvanathan, 2018)."


id: 56ee0e2616c16867c8fd81eee1ac6024
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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"In Central Asia, water scarcity has been ranked in the top five global risks (Gleick, 1993; Zhupankhan et al., 2018). Cross-boundary \r\nadaptation remains critically important in this region with abundant glaciers in the Pamir Plateau of Tajikistan (Hu et al., 2017) and areas \r\nwith severe glacier retreat in the Tianshan Mountains (Liu and Liu, 2015). The spatial variations of glacier and other climate variables \r\nhave added to uncertainty related to the dynamic of the water cycle. The headwater regions, such as Pamir area, would be significantly \r\naffected by the climate parameters, such as the stronger rainfall intensity, more frequent rainfall and higher temperature (Luo et al., \r\n2019). The water resources in the Pamir Plateau will range from -0.48 to 5.6% (Gulakhmadov et al., 2020), and the crop phenological \r\nperiod in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be about 1-2 weeks earlier. The threat of agricultural water stress is increasing as well"


id: e8b950291c3c7102812f3a76c931f239
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" The oasis in \r\ndownstream areas will face more complex water resource fluctuations, water crisis and desertification. In particular, rain-fed agriculture in \r\nnorthern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and western Turkmenistan is particularly dependent on water resources. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 \r\nscenarios, considering CO2 fertilisation effects and land-use projections, the increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration and accumulated \r\ntemperature can contribute to a 23% increase in cotton yield in Central Asia (Tian and Zhang, 2019), but extreme climate, such as \r\ndrought, heatwaves and rainstorms, will have a 10% negative impact on agricultural production and the ecological environment (Zhang \r\nand Ren, 2017). High-efficiency water-saving technology will help the upstream and downstream water resource management in Central \r\nAsian countries to adapt to the variation in water resources quantity, frequency and spatial pattern."


id: cfa13d5053317625905ed04178e3a836
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"there has been an increasing reliance on groundwater in South Asia \r\nfor irrigation (Rodell et al., 2009; Tiwari et al., 2009; Surie and Prasai, \r\n2015; Bhanja et al., 2016; Shrestha et al., 2016; Mukherjee, 2018; Shah \r\net  al., 2018). It is noteworthy that India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and \r\nChina together account for more than 50% of the world's groundwater \r\nwithdrawals (Scott et al., 2019). A study conducted in the Shahpur and \r\nManer districts of Bihar, India, in which drinking water sourced from \r\nthe groundwater of 388 households was tested, showed that 70-90% \r\nof the sampled household's drinking water contained either arsenic \r\nor iron, or both (Thakur and Gupta, 2019)"


id: e3033646109e6b33d4ed31c3306c1b18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Given the nexus between \r\nCIDs and non-climate drivers, an effective adaptation to the impacts \r\nof climate change would also demand sustainable development and \r\nmanagement of shared aquifer resources, which in turn require reliable \r\nTBA inventories and improved knowledge production and knowledge \r\nsharing on the shared groundwater systems (Lee et al., 2018a)."


id: df6f1d4de98d6eff6a2f0f295bf3f76b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"A study of peri-urban spaces involving four South Asian cities, Khulna \r\n(Bangladesh) (Pervin et al., 2020), Gurugram and Hyderabad (India), \r\nand Kathmandu (Nepal), has shown the nexus between intensifying use \r\nand deteriorating quality of water and the impact of climate change, \r\nresulting in peri-urban water insecurity and conflict (Roth et al., 2019). \r\nThe challenge of ensuring access to water resources and their (re)\r\nallocation and prioritisation for marginalised communities remains on \r\nthe agenda of policy-oriented interdisciplinary research and demands \r\neffective implementation of its findings at the grassroots level by the \r\nadministrative agencies. Taking water security as a key CCA goal at the \r\nurban-city scale of Bangkok, a study (Babel et al"


id: 4ed177cb9d75529950148ea317801244
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", 2020) has shown the \r\nusefulness of a generic framework with 5 dimensions, 12 indicators \r\nand a set of potential variables to support national-level initiatives and \r\nplans in diverse climatic and socioeconomic conditions across various \r\nsub-regions of Asia."


id: e78ae730482f5def91865902b95d6ba2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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"AR5 identified a number of adaptation challenges and options \r\nfacing the stakeholders in the wake of climate-change-induced \r\nvulnerabilities, uncertainties and risks in the freshwater sector, and \r\nunderlined the importance of an integrated management approach as \r\nwell as acknowledging diverse socioeconomic contexts, differentiated \r\ncapacities and the uneven pace of impacts. Further validated by recent \r\nresearch in terms of their usefulness, these adaptation options include \r\nbuilding and improving capital-intensive physical water infrastructure \r\nsuch as irrigation channels, flood-control dams and water storage \r\n(Nusser and Schmidt, 2017). Drawing upon customary institutions \r\nand combining Indigenous knowledge systems with scientific \r\nknowledge, innovative structures, including artificial glaciers, ice \r\nstupas and snow barrier bands, have been built by local communities \r\nin Ladakh, Zanskar and Himachal Pradesh in India (Hock et al., 2019; \r\nNusser et al., 2019)"


id: c8bf6ef106422b88996cf2873d4c438e
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content:
" Communities in Solukhumbu, Nepal, in response \r\nto depleting water flow in snow-fed rivers, have chosen adaptation \r\nthrough changing practices by collecting water from distant sources \r\nfor domestic consumption (McDowell et al., 2013). Taking the IPCC \r\nconcept of climate risk as a basis for adaptation planning, a pilot \r\nstudy of flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India (Allen et  al., 2018), \r\nintegrating assessment of hazard, vulnerability and exposure in the \r\ncomplementary domains of CCA and DRR, has identified stakeholder \r\nconsultation, knowledge exchange and institutional capacity building \r\nas key steps in adaptation planning. Aquifer storage and recovery \r\nhas been proposed as an 'alternative climate-proof freshwater \r\nsource' for deltaic regions in Asia, particularly those with a history of \r\nsaline groundwater aquifers (Hoque et al., 2016). It is further argued \r\n(Hadwen et al"


id: 27202a15cd4d6f93cca3a91e456bdbde
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", 2015) that water, sanitation and hygiene objectives \r\nwould need to be addressed as a component of a wider integrated \r\nwater resource management (IWRM) framework."


id: ba14484eb1d80b4280835915cdee0e24
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
"Asia accounts for 67% of global agricultural production (Mendelsohn, \r\n2014) and employs a large portion of the population in many \r\ndeveloping countries and regions (Briones and Felipe, 2013; ADB, \r\n2017b; ILO, 2017a). Since the release of IPCC AR5, more studies \r\nhave reinforced the earlier findings on the spatio-temporal diversity \r\nof climate-change impacts on food production in Asia depending \r\non the geographic location, agroecology and crops grown (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al., 2018; Ahmad et al., 2019), recognising that there are \r\nwinners and losers associated with the changing climate across scales \r\n(Dasgupta et  al., 2013a; Yong-Jian et  al., 2013; Bobojonov and Aw\u0002Hassan, 2014; Hijioka et al., 2014; Li et al., 2014a; Prabnakorn et al., \r\n2018; Trisurat et al., 2018; Matsumoto, 2019)"


id: 2a85c621bda4fa536948fd96846f8395
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" Despite the observed \r\nincrease in total food production in terms of crops and food yields \r\nfrom 1990 to 2014 in Asia (FAO, 2015), there is high confidence that \r\noverall, at the regional level, the projected total negative impacts will \r\nfar outweigh the expected benefits, with India emerging as the most \r\nvulnerable nation in terms of crop production (Figure  10.6). Recent \r\nevidence also indicates that climate-related risks to agriculture and \r\nfood security in Asia will progressively escalate as global warming \r\nreaches 1.5degC and higher above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2018b) \r\nwith differentiated impacts across the Asian continent."


id: 8344eb6b63dda815802f2bf7daa9db0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"There remains a paucity of data for observed climate-change impacts \r\non Asian agriculture and food systems since the release of IPCC AR5. \r\nMost of these impacts have been associated with drought, monsoon \r\nrain and oceanic oscillations, the frequency and severity of which \r\nhave been linked with the changing climate (Heino et al., 2018; Heino \r\net al., 2020). In general, major impacts to agricultural production, such \r\nas those observed by the farmers in the Philippines and Indonesia, \r\ninclude among others delays in crop harvesting, declining crop yields \r\nand quality of produce, increasing incidence of pests and diseases, \r\nstunted growth, livestock mortality and low farm income (Stevenson \r\net al., 2013). In South Asia, the series of monsoon floods from 2005 to \r\n2015 contributed to a high level of loss in agricultural production with \r\npeaks in 2008 and 2015 (FAO, 2018a)"


id: 5f2786e741c03e2916b96e6c5f927959
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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content:
" Similarly, in Pakistan, farmers \r\nare experiencing a decline in crop yields and increasing incidence \r\nof crop diseases as a result of climate extremes, particularly floods, \r\ndroughts and heatwaves (Fahad and Wang, 2018; Ahmad et al., 2019)."


id: 956f50888ff58ecfe4a4ac1aa1f00efd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21010
content:
"Like fisheries, Asian aquaculture is highly vulnerable to climate \r\nchange. Shrimp farmers and fry catchers of Bangladesh are \r\nfrequently affected by extreme climatic disruptions like cyclones and \r\nstorm surges that severely damage the entire coastal aquaculture \r\n(Islam et al., 2016a; Kais and Islam, 2018). The majority of shrimp \r\nfarmers also observed that weather has changed abruptly during \r\nthe past 5  years and that high temperature is most detrimental \r\nbecause it lowers growth rate, increases susceptibility to diseases, \r\nincluding deformation, and affects production (Islam et al., 2016a). \r\nLow production in shrimp farming is also attributed to variation and \r\nintensity of rainfall perceived by the majority of farmers as part of \r\nclimate-change impacts (Ahmed and Diana, 2015; Islam et al., 2016a; \r\nHenriksson et al., 2019)"


id: 551dfc691825b58d3c95106430c8f2f0
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vector_id: 10852
content:
" In Vietnam, small-scale shrimp farmers are \r\nlikewise vulnerable to climate change, although those who practise \r\nan extensive type of farming with low inputs are more vulnerable \r\ncompared with those who practise a more intensive type with more \r\ncapital investment (Quach et al., 2015; Quach et al., 2017). Seaweed \r\nfarming in Asia is very popular, and the significance of seaweed \r\naquaculture beds in capturing carbon is recognised, but most of the \r\nfarmed seaweeds are susceptible to climate change (Chung et  al., \r\n2017a; Duarte et al., 2017)."


id: d78984dd347cda7b29d073930eb8fcb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31432
content:
"There is high agreement in the literature that Asian fisheries and \r\naquaculture, including the local communities depending on them for \r\nlivelihoods, are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. \r\nAsia has been impacted by SLR (Panpeng and Ahmad, 2017), a \r\ndecrease in precipitation in some parts (Salik et  al., 2015) and an \r\nincrease in temperature (Vivekanandan et al., 2016), all of which have \r\ndrastic effects on fisheries and aquaculture (FAO, 2018c). Its coastal \r\nfishing communities is exposed to disasters, which are predicted to \r\nincrease (Esham et  al., 2018). Fisheries in most of South Asia and \r\nSoutheast Asia involve small-scale fishers who are more vulnerable \r\nto climate-change impacts compared with commercial fishers (Sonke \r\nKreft et al., 2016; Blasiak et al., 2017), although there is a general \r\ndecreasing trend in the number of small units (Fernandez-Llamazares \r\net al., 2015; ILO, 2015)"


id: 69b66ec509c436125807fab94e728fd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14227
content:
" A regional study of South Asia forecast large \r\ndecreases in potential catch of two key commercial fish species (hilsa \r\nshad and Bombay duck) in the Bay of Bengal (Fernandes et al., 2016), \r\nwhich forms a major fishery and food source for coastal communities. \r\nAbout 69% of the commercially important species of the Indian "


id: 5463f1007f2cf85e2f41440399f79e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10739
content:
"While there is general agreement that CO2 promotes growth and \r\nproductivity of plants through enhanced photosynthesis, there \r\nremains uncertainty on the extent to which carbon fertilisation will \r\ninfluence agricultural production in Asia as it interacts with increasing \r\ntemperatures, changing water availability and the different adaptation \r\nmeasures employed (Ju et al., 2013; Jat et al., 2016; ADB, 2017b). As \r\nglobal warming compounds beyond 1.5degC, however, the likelihood of \r\nadverse impacts on agricultural and food security in many parts of \r\ndeveloping Asia increases (Mendelsohn, 2014; IPCC, 2018b). There \r\nis a growing trend towards more integrated studies and modelling \r\nthat combines biophysical and socioeconomic variables (including \r\nmanagement practices) in the context of changing climate to reduce \r\nuncertainty associated with future impacts of climate change on the \r\nagriculture sector (see, for instance, Mason-D'Croz et al., 2016; Smeets \r\nKristkova et al"


id: c2a69e71c14a6066224f462cdf48ff84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 28211
content:
"climate. Agricultural management practice in China may also change \r\nto optimise soil organic carbon sequestration (Zhang et al., 2016a). A \r\nstudy on projected irrigation requirements under climate change using \r\na soil-moisture model for 29 upland crops in the Republic of Korea \r\nshowed that water scarcity is a major limiting factor for sustainable \r\nagricultural production (Hong et  al., 2016). In terms of drought, \r\ndespite increasing future precipitation in most scenarios, crop-specific \r\nagricultural drought is expected to be a significant risk due to rainfall \r\nvariability (Lim et al., 2019a). On the other hand, a projected rise in \r\nwater availability in the Korean Peninsula using multiple regional \r\nclimate models and evapotranspiration methods indicates that it will \r\nlikely increase agricultural productivity for both rice and corn, but \r\nwould decrease significantly in rain-fed conditions (Lim et al., 2017b)"


id: c29df0d76d6e4a2b89116e08098b9e41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28208
content:
" \r\nThus, irrigation and soil-water management will be a major factor in \r\ndetermining future farming systems and crop areas in the country."


id: 57249a7f143e26a20c74235cf0390f9f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11193
content:
"There is high confidence that agriculture will continue to be among \r\nthe most vulnerable sectors in Asia in light of the changing climate \r\n(Mendelsohn, 2014; ADB, 2017b). Among the more vulnerable areas \r\ninclude mountain agriculture where fluctuation in crop production \r\n(Poudel and Shaw, 2016; Hussain et al., 2019), and food insufficiency, \r\nis more widespread than in lowland areas (Poudel and Shaw, 2015; \r\nKohler and Maselli, 2009). Also vulnerable are flood-prone areas like \r\nthe Vietnam Mekong River Delta where 39% of the total rice area is \r\nexposed to sustained flood risks (Wassmann et al., 2019a). Increasing \r\ntemperatures and changing precipitation levels will persist to be \r\nimportant vulnerability drivers that will shape agricultural productivity \r\nparticularly in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia as well \r\nas in selected areas of the region"


id: 503430b6a4caef8e8a6548bcbc552373
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10057
content:
" With the increasing likelihood of \r\nextreme weather events, such as strong typhoons in the Philippines, \r\nthe agriculture sector in the typhoon-prone areas of Southeast and \r\nEast Asia, as well as the Indus Delta, will be more vulnerable to crop \r\ndestruction (Mallari and Ezra, 2016). Projections on increasing SLR \r\nand flooding, such as those in Bangladesh and the Mekong Delta, \r\nwill submerge and decrease crop production areas and severely affect \r\nagriculture and fishery sectors, but will also trigger outmigration from \r\nthese areas (ADB, 2017b)."


id: 5afc816de5468f129c2cc0a267052f78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11831
content:
"Asian farmers and fishers already employ a variety of adaptation \r\npractices to minimise the adverse impacts of climate change. In a \r\nrecent systematic and comprehensive review of farmers' adaptation \r\npractices in Asia, Shaffril et  al. (2018) categorised these practices \r\ninto different forms such as crop management, irrigation and water \r\nmanagement, farm management, financial management, physical \r\ninfrastructure management and social activities. 'Climate-smart \r\nagriculture'-an integrated approach for developing agricultural \r\nstrategies that address the intertwined challenges of food security \r\nand climate change-is increasingly being promoted in many parts of \r\nthe region, especially in Southeast and South Asia, with potentially \r\npromising outcomes (Chandra et al., 2017; Khatri-Chhetri et al., 2017; \r\nShirsath et al., 2017; Westermann et al., 2018; Wassmann et al., 2019b)"


id: 4e850b9a739e290527cd0ffaaa15f66
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9787
content:
" \r\nSite-specific adaptations, such as those in Pakistan, include farmers' \r\nutilisation of several adaptation techniques which include changing \r\ncrop type and variety, and improving seed quality; fertiliser application \r\nand use of pesticides, and planting of shade trees; and water storage \r\nand farm diversification (Fahad and Wang, 2018), as well as the \r\nimplementation of comprehensive climate information services for \r\nfarming communities (World Meteorological Organization, 2017)."


id: 49fa6ae7343b50be3a07c66a47601c30
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9046
content:
"Asia (Japan, China, Republic of Korea, India, the Philippines and Taiwan, \r\nProvince of China) (UNISDR, 2017). As per Gu et al. (2015), 56% of cities \r\nwith populations greater than 300,000 in 2014 are exposed to at least \r\none of the six physical hazards (cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, \r\nlandslides and volcanic eruptions). Cities in areas highly exposed and \r\nvulnerable to multiple hazards were also the ones that grew rapidly in \r\npopulation between 1950 and 2014, implying greater infrastructural \r\ninvestments in climate-sensitive areas. Among 27 cities highly exposed \r\nto multiple disasters, 13 cities had a population of 1 million or more in \r\n2014. Among them were three megacities, Tokyo (Japan), Osaka (Japan) \r\nand Manila (the Philippines), with more than 10  million inhabitants \r\nexposed to three or more hazards. Seven other cities with 1  million \r\ninhabitants or more in Asia were at high risk of three or more types of \r\ndisaster"


id: cc40426001565b29defd9bfedc65d3e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29679
content:
" Manila is highly vulnerable to economic losses and disaster\u0002related mortality from all six types of disasters. Moscow (Russia) is the \r\nonly megacity not exposed to the risk of any of the six types of physical \r\nhazards analysed (cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides and \r\nvolcano eruptions). Of the eight megacities most vulnerable to disaster\u0002related mortality, seven-Tokyo, Osaka, Karachi, Kolkata, Manila, Tianjin \r\nand Jakarta, totalling 143 million people-are in Asia (Gu et al., 2015)."


id: 950ddf45636e6b661c01e58102b153b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20959
content:
"Critically, these projections of higher temperatures will have a significant \r\nimpact on heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, \r\nmental health, and health and well-being outcomes across all sub-regions \r\nof Asia (medium evidence, high confidence) (Pal and Eltahir, 2016; Im \r\net al., 2017; Arifwidodo et al., 2019; Arshad et al., 2020). In West Asia and \r\nthe North China Plain especially, extreme wet-bulb temperatures are \r\nexpected to approach, and possibly exceed, the physiological threshold \r\nfor human adaptability (35degC) (Pal and Eltahir, 2016; Kang and Eltahir, \r\n2018). By the end of the century, under higher projections (RCP8.5), \r\nthe daily maximum wet-bulb temperature is expected to exceed the \r\nsurvivability threshold across most of South Asia (Im et al., 2017). City\u0002specific studies articulate what these regional projections will mean for \r\nurban populations. For example, at 1"


id: 698fc9b48dc153c9f5796465f58232e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14203
content:
"5degC warming, without adaptation, \r\nannual heat-related mortality in 27 major cities across China is projected \r\nto increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986-2005 to \r\n48.8-67.1 per million. This number increases to 59.2-81.3 per million for \r\n2degC warming (Wang et al., 2019a). In the Republic of Korea, deaths from \r\nheat disorders are expected to increase approximately fivefold under the \r\nRCP4.5 and 7.2-fold under RCP8.5 by 2060 compared with the current \r\nbaseline value of ~23 people per summer (Kim et al., 2016a). Importantly, \r\nheat exposure is differentiated within cities: it disproportionally affects \r\nthe poorest populations (Lohrey et  al., 2021) and those with lesser \r\naccess to green spaces (Arifwidodo and Chandrasiri, 2020)."


id: 156dce2207c59258e98047bd550dc444
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 885
content:
"Impacts of heatwaves at 1.5degC and 2degC in cities are substantially larger \r\nthan under the present climate (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). In South \r\nAsia particularly, more intense heatwaves of longer durations and \r\noccurring at a higher frequency are projected with medium confidence\r\nover India (Murari et al., 2015) and Pakistan (IPCC AR6, WGI, Table 11.5; \r\nAli et al., 2018; Nasim et al., 2018; Ali et al., 2020; IPCC, 2021). At the city \r\nlevel, these projections could translate into significant impacts: at 1.5degC, \r\non average, every year Kolkata will experience heat equivalent to the \r\n2015 record heatwaves; Karachi about once every 3.6 years; and under \r\n2degC warming, both regions could expect such heat annually (Matthews \r\net al., 2017). In Pakistan, Hyderabad is likely to be the hottest city by \r\n2100 with the highest average temperature reaching 29.9degC (RCP4.5) to \r\n32degC (RCP8.5) followed by Jacobabad, Bahawalnagar and Bahawalpur \r\ncities (Ali et  al., 2020)"


id: 102945b5164ef3e18ff782f161995668
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31
content:
" The frequency of heatwave days (HWF) will \r\nincrease by 22.8, 22.3 and 26.5 d yr-1 in northern, eastern and western \r\nJapan, respectively, with megacities such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya \r\nseeing large increases in HWF and related deaths (Nakano et al., 2013)."


id: 45b484b4af63c0d8c49630d12ae2c9c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8366
content:
"0.73-2.1 million people by 2100 (Davis et al., 2018). Such migration \r\nwill have direct development implications: for example, destination \r\nlocations could see additional demands on jobs (594,000), housing \r\n(197,000) and food (783 x 109\r\n calories) by mid-century as a result of \r\nthose displaced by SLR (Davis et al., 2018).\r\nAmong the 20 largest coastal cities with the highest flood losses by \r\n2050, 13 are in Asia5\r\n, with a regional concentration in South, Southeast \r\nand East Asia (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Furthermore, 9 of these cities \r\n(Guangzhou, Kolkata, Tianjin, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Zhanjiang, \r\nBangkok, Xiamen, Nagoya) also have an additional risk of subsidence \r\ndue to SLR and flooding (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Guangzhou, China, \r\nis estimated to be the most economically vulnerable city in the world \r\nto SLR by 2050, with estimated losses of 254 million USD yr-1 under \r\n0.2 m SLR (Jevrejeva et al., 2016)"


id: 5d8874c2459f906abfa6967fdb889e73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12237
content:
" With a 2degC warming, Guangzhou \r\nis expected to see SLR of 0.34 m; under 5degC warming, this number \r\nwould rise to 1.93 m. A more recent estimate calculates expected \r\ndamage in Guangzhou due to SLR under RCP8.5 to reach 331 billion \r\nUSD by 2050 and 420 billion USD under the high-end scenario with \r\nfigures doubling by 2070. By 2100, expected damage could reach 1.4 \r\ntrillion USD under RCP8.5 and 1.8 trillion USD under the high-end \r\nscenario. Similarly, in Mumbai (India) SLR damages amount to US$ \r\n112-162 billion by 2050 and could increase by a factor of 2.8-2.9 by \r\n2070 (Abadie et al., 2020). In coastal cities such as Bangkok and Ho \r\nChi Minh City, projected land subsidence rates, mainly due to excessive \r\ngroundwater extraction, are comparable to, or exceed, expected rates \r\nof SLR, resulting in an additional 0.2 m SLR by 2025 (Jevrejeva et al., \r\n2016). In Shanghai, current annual damage by coastal inundation is \r\nestimated at 0.03% of local GDP; under RCP4"


id: f1c99811588ee5fce5230f90d6a1342
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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vector_id: 35554
content:
"5, this increases to 0.8% \r\nby 2100 (uncertainty range of 0.4-1.4%) and is further exacerbated by \r\nland subsidence and socioeconomic development (Du et al., 2020). It \r\nis important to note that these projections assume (a) no adaptation \r\nand (b) that damage repairs are undertaken and completed annually. \r\nGiven these assumptions, while these estimates communicate the \r\nscale of projected impacts, they are indicators of possible damages in \r\nthe absence of adaptation and not actual projections."


id: 49251a20a5cb24a66bc7167a45843641
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8897
content:
"Global assessments identify Asia as the most exposed region to SLR \r\n(see Section CCP2.2.1) in terms of the number of people living in low\u0002elevation coastal zones and the number of people exposed to flooding \r\nfrom 1-in-100-years storm surge events (Neumann et al., 2015; Jevrejeva \r\net al., 2016; Kulp and Strauss, 2019; Abadie et al., 2020; Haasnoot, 2021). \r\nTwelve of the top 20 countries exposed to SLR and associated flood events \r\nare in Asia, and of these, China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam \r\nare estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure \r\n(Neumann et  al., 2015; Edmonds et  al., 2020). Critically, regardless of \r\nthe emissions scenario, 70% of the global population exposed to SLR \r\nand land subsidence are in eight Asian countries: China, Bangladesh, \r\nIndia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Japan (Kulp and \r\nStrauss, 2019)"


id: 6a61247ae6c3d8f852c4828ebec03ff9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
" This is particularly worrisome since in highly populated \r\nlow-lying coastal cities across Asia, it is estimated that land subsidence \r\ncould be as influential as climate-induced SLR over the 21st century (Cao \r\net al., 2021; Nicholls et al., 2021). In East Asia and the Asia-Pacific in \r\ngeneral (expected to see 0.2-0.5 m SLR), without adaptation, 1 million \r\npeople (range of 0.3-2.2  million) are projected to be affected by \r\nsubmergence under RCP8.5 by 2095. Limiting warming will reduce this \r\nrisk, and under RCP4.5, these numbers of people at risk will be reached by \r\n2140. However, continuing on RCP8.5 increases risk exposure to 7 million \r\n(estimated range of 2-24  million people) (Haasnoot, 2021)"


id: 8e89d64337e0dc07869372270aa6aae0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19946
content:
" Notably, \r\nassuming present-day population and adaptation (in the form of existing \r\nprotection standards), East and South Asia already have a large number \r\nof people at risk of a 1-in-100-years flooding event (63 million) because \r\nof relatively lower flood protection (except in China and Malaysia)."


id: 60a088a9d06b26718d802f1e38226c9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12770
content:
"The SLR affects economic growth, its drivers and welfare outcomes \r\n(Hallegatte, 2012; Pycroft et al., 2016; Lee and Asuncion, 2020) through \r\n(a) permanent loss of land and natural capital, (b) loss of infrastructure \r\nand physical capital, (c) loss of social capital and migration, (d) \r\ntemporary floods, food insecurity and loss of livelihoods and (e) added \r\nexpenditure for coastal protection. Without adaptation, direct damage \r\nto the GDP by 2080 due to SLR would be highest in Asia (robust \r\nevidence, medium agreement), with China losing between 64.2 billion \r\nUSD (under A1B of 2.4degC by the 2050s and 3.8degC by the 2090s at \r\n0.47 m), 95.8 billion USD (under the RAHM scenario of 1.4 m SLR by \r\n2100 at 1.12 m) and 118.4 billion USD (at a high SLR of 2 m by 2100 at \r\n1.75 m) in direct damages, and an additional 5.7, 4.5 and 4.5 billion \r\nUSD, respectively, due to migration (Pycroft et al., 2016)"


id: c249136beaa1ff3869cac44c3293529c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28151
content:
" Closely after \r\nChina will be India, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Russia. \r\nOverall, Asia can experience direct losses of about 167.6 billion USD \r\n(at 0.47 m), 272.3  billion USD (at 1.12 m) or 338.1  billion USD (at "


id: 36912bc96dcce6bfdf3d97252b7b4184
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5975
content:
"In Northern Eurasia, observed and projected climate-change impacts \r\nare especially pronounced. On land, the presence of permafrost, \r\nwhich occupies substantial areas of eastern Russia, Mongolia and \r\nmountain regions of China, creates specific challenges for economic \r\ndevelopment and human activities. By 2050, it is likely that 69% of \r\nfundamental human infrastructure in the Pan Arctic will be at risk \r\n(RCP 4.5 scenario)(medium confidence), including more than 1200 \r\nsettlements (Hjort et al., 2018). The majority of the population and \r\nthe absolute majority (85%) of large settlements on permafrost are \r\nlocated in Russia, and 44% of those are expected to be profoundly \r\naffected by permafrost thaw by 2050 (Streletskiy et al., 2019; Ramage \r\net al., 2021). Under RCP8.5, the climate-induced decrease of bearing \r\ncapacity and, in regions with ice-rich permafrost, thaw subsidence, \r\nis projected to affect 54% of all residential buildings on permafrost \r\nwith a combined worth of 20"


id: 48dcee797c678dde20c817d6efb517a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8843
content:
"7 billion USD; 20% of commercial and \r\nindustrial structures and 19% in critical infrastructure with a total \r\nworth of 84.4 billion USD (Streletskiy, 2019). Transport infrastructure \r\nin Russia and China are impacted by thaw subsidence and, to a lesser \r\ndegree, from frost heave, which add significant operational costs and \r\nlimit accessibility to remote settlements (Porfiriev et  al., 2019; Ni \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 8d4b5e7bcc323597f7d9ffe126a2ba2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19754
content:
"Globally, there is high confidence that the proportion of intense \r\ntropical cyclones is expected to increase despite the total number of \r\ntropical cyclones being expected to decrease or remain unchanged \r\n(Arias et  al., 2021), especially in Southeast and East Asia (Knutson \r\net al., 2015; Yamamoto et al., 2021). Historical trends from South Asia \r\nindicate that more lives are lost due to storm surge levels than the \r\nintensity of the cyclone (Niggol and Bakkensen, 2017). The number of \r\npeople exposed to 1-in-100-years storm surge events is highest in Asia. \r\nChina, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam have the highest \r\nnumbers of coastal populations exposed (Neumann et al., 2015) with \r\nGuangzhou, Mumbai, Shenzen, Tianjin, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata and \r\nJakarta incurring losses of 1520 million USD due to coastal flooding in \r\n2005 alone (Dulal, 2019), although Jakarta is exposed to monsoonal \r\nstorm surge"


id: a54b261103b00fde09788c90b6a5065c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23572
content:
" It is projected that by 2050, without adaptation, the \r\nannual losses incurred in these cities will increase to approximately \r\n32 billion USD (Dulal, 2019)."


id: 8139ceb01b7f237bb6a122021cb74d91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17853
content:
"Adaptation options include: (a) infrastructural measures such as \r\nbuilding flood protection measures and sea walls, and climate-resilient \r\nhighways and power infrastructure (Shaw et  al., 2016b; Ho et  al., \r\n2017); (b) sustainable land-use planning through zoning, developing \r\nbuilding codes (Knowlton et  al., 2014; Nahiduzzaman et  al., 2015; \r\nRahman et  al., 2016; Ahmed et  al., 2019b); (c) ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation measures such as protecting urban green spaces, improving \r\npermeability, mangrove restoration in coastal cities, etc. (Brink et al., \r\n2016; Fink, 2016; Yu et al., 2018d); (d) relocation and migration out \r\nof risk-prone areas (McLeman, 2019; Hauer et  al., 2020; Maharjan \r\net al., 2020); and (e) disaster management and contingency planning \r\nsuch as through Early warning systems (EWS), improved awareness \r\nand preparedness measures (Shaw et al., 2016a)"


id: 376b5d67a950e765b8b1784122595405
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" Asian cities are also \r\nfocusing on institutional adaptation measures which cut across the \r\nfive categories mentioned above such as through building capacity and \r\nlocal networks (Anguelovski et al., 2014; Friend et al., 2014; Knowlton \r\net al., 2014), improving awareness (Knowlton et al., 2014), and putting \r\nlocal research and monitoring mechanisms in place (Lee and Painter, \r\n2015) to enable adaptation. Figure  10.9 shows the effectiveness of \r\nselect adaptation options in cities across Asia."


id: 42106afa519997eee142f2205a967d4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Land tenure arrangements strongly shape urban dwellers' vulnerability \r\nand their adaptive capacities (Roy et  al., 2013; Michael et  al., 2018). \r\nFor example, in Khulna (Bangladesh), Roy et al. (2013) found significant \r\ndifferences between the adaptive strategies of homeowners and renters \r\nin low-income settlements, a finding echoed in Bangalore (India) \r\n(Deshpande et al., 2018) and Phnom Penh (Cambodia) (Mitchell et al., \r\n2015). In Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), land-based adaptation strategies \r\ninclude land zoning to control population and building density, \r\ndemarcating environmental protection zones, and sub-urbanisation \r\n(Nahiduzzaman et al., 2015; Rahman et al., 2016). In many Asian cities, \r\nland subsidence control can serve as an adaptation strategy since it is \r\nestimated to significantly reduce relative SLR (high confidence)"


id: 59fecb85d4ae63de69b975e62e93cf57
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" This has \r\nan important implication in that subsidence control would be a good and \r\ncomplementary measure to climate mitigation and climate adaptation \r\nin many coastal urban settings in Asia (Cao et al., 2021; Nicholls et al., \r\n2021). Urban land-use planning, if used proactively, can incentivise \r\nadaptation-mitigation synergies and obviate unintended negative \r\nconsequences of urbanisation as Xu et al. (2019) have shown in Xiamen."


id: dc99d535a5380749c9cfed42ef6427dd
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"Infrastructural measures alone are seldom effective in building urban \r\nresilience as seen in the examples of the 2011 floods in Bangkok and \r\nthe 2005 typhoon in Manila (Duy et al., 2019), or projected estimates \r\nby Pervin et  al. (2020) who found that structural interventions in \r\nexisting drainage systems reduce flooding risk by 7-19% in Sylhet \r\n(Bangladesh) and Bharatpur (Nepal); however, without proper \r\nsolid waste management, areas under flood risk could increase to \r\n18.5% in Sylhet and 7.6% in Bharatpur in five  years, rendering the \r\ninfrastructural interventions ineffective over time. While in some cities \r\nit is estimated that infrastructural adaptation through 'hard' flood \r\nprotection strategies (e.g., storm surge barriers and floodwalls) is more \r\neffective than institutional or ecosystem-based adaptation by 2100, for \r\nexample, Shanghai"


id: 379c0f3169e4afd50cabe174ff7d6816
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" A hybrid approach where hard strategies protect \r\nfrom flood risk, and soft strategies reduce residual risk from hard \r\nstrategies, is suggested (Du et al., 2020). In Japan, without adaptation, \r\nestimated damage costs of floods (caused by tropical cyclones and \r\naltered precipitation) by 2081-2100 under RCP2.6 will be 28% higher \r\n(compared with 1981-2000), rising to 57% higher under RCP8.5 \r\n(Yamamoto et al., 2021). With a combination of adaptation measures \r\n(such as land-use control, piloti building and flood control measures), \r\nestimated damage costs can be reduced even below the 1981-2000 \r\nlevels, and with a combination of mitigation and these adaptation \r\nmeasures, an estimated 69% reduction in flood damage costs are \r\nexpected-demonstrating the importance of concerted and immediate \r\nclimate action in reducing damage."


id: c4fd0879ad68e75ccc017ca0807dd864
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"warnings through mobile phones or mobilising relief through social \r\nmedia (Carley et al., 2016), are proving effective for disaster prepared\u0002ness, relief and recovery. Community-based DRR is consistently rank\u0002ed as most effective for its role in transforming DRR towards being \r\nmore context relevant and inclusive. Ecosystem-based DRR (EbDRR) \r\nis also gaining prominence and includes strategies such as mangrove \r\nplantation and rejuvenation in vulnerable coastal areas. Nature-based \r\nsolutions for flood protection and reducing drought incidence have \r\nemerged as an alternative to costlier 'hard' infrastructure (UN-Water, \r\n2018; Zevenbergen et al., 2018; Rozenberg and Fay, 2019). Some cities \r\nare also reporting adaptation to heat risk"


id: 292255e91671e754a800fc33b9d9ce4c
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" For example, Ahmedabad \r\n(India) has pioneered preparedness for extreme temperatures and \r\nheatwaves by developing annual Heat Action Plans, building regula\u0002tions to minimise trapping heat, advisories about managing heat stress \r\nand instituting a cool-roofs policy (Ahmedabad Municipal, 2018)."


id: b191122b984601122f5fe1f1cdaadfff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"There is medium evidence (low agreement) about the effectiveness of \r\nmigration and planned relocation in reducing risk exposure. Evidence \r\non climate-driven internal migration shows that moving has mixed \r\noutcomes on risk reduction and adaptive capacity. On one hand, \r\nmigration can improve adaptive capacity by increasing incomes and \r\nremittances as well as diversifying livelihoods (Maharjan et al., 2020); \r\non the other, migration can expose migrants to new risks. For example, \r\nin Bangalore (India), migrants often face high exposure to localised \r\nflooding, insecure and unsafe livelihoods, and social exclusion, which \r\ncollectively shape their vulnerability (Michael et al., 2018; Singh and \r\nBasu, 2020)"


id: 8ce76831f65d3ef7d27ae785a8fb0c4b
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" In greater Manila (the Philippines) and Chennai (India), \r\nplanned relocations to reduce disaster risk have often exacerbated \r\nvulnerability, due to relocation sites being in environmentally sensitive \r\nareas, inadequate livelihood opportunities and exposure to new risks \r\n(Meerow, 2017; Ajibade, 2019; Jain et al., 2021)."


id: 1b0bd79b7faa269d4f784a40ed271f85
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"Financing, regulations and institutional processes play a significant \r\nrole in incentivising DRR and resilience in large-scale, city-level built \r\ninfrastructure by the private sector and other actors. Currently there \r\nare gaps in these mechanisms, leading to infrastructure development \r\nin disaster-prone areas, increasing exposure to people, property, \r\neconomy and systems (Jain, 2013). Both firms and governments need \r\nto take disaster risks into consideration in supply-chain management \r\nto avoid disruptions and subsequent negative effects (Abe and Ye, \r\n2013)"


id: 9b406a0a9e0ccb9bced75efa3763689f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" There are several institutional challenges faced during DRR \r\nand CCA implementation including overlapping efforts and inefficient \r\nuse of scarce resources due to inappropriate funding mechanisms, \r\na lack of coordination and collaboration, a lack of implementation \r\nand mainstreaming, scale mismatches, poor governance, the social-\r\npolitical-cultural structure, competing actors and institutions, and lack \r\nof information, communication, knowledge sharing, and community \r\ninvolvement, as well as policy gaps (Seidler et al., 2018; Islam et al., \r\n2020)."


id: 617f4bb64ec8271c484ed785883a35d4
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"There is rich case-based evidence across Asia on urban adaptation \r\nto extreme events with relatively more evidence on rapid-onset \r\nevents such as cyclones and flooding than slow-onset disasters such \r\nas drought (see Box  10.6; Ray and Shaw, 2019; UNESCAP, 2019; \r\nSingh et al., 2021a). Overall, there has been a growing emphasis on \r\n'build back better' interventions (Mannakkara and Wilkinson, 2013; \r\nHallegatte et al., 2018) that approach disaster management holistically \r\nthrough infrastructural solutions such as climate-resilient housing \r\nor sea walls and soft approaches such as strengthening livelihoods, \r\ndeveloping EWS11, increasing awareness about disaster risks and \r\nimpacts, and building local capacities to deal with them (Bhowmik \r\net al., 2021)"


id: ef4d5cfdcce31f2e799b570165496766
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Notably, urban disaster management is effective when \r\nland-use planning processes, including greenfield development, zoning \r\nand building codes, and urban redevelopment, are leveraged to reduce \r\nand/or obviate risk, thereby averting potential maladaptation (Kuhl \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 92315bb0f35d7d948e3743a42bbcb577
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"High temperatures affect mortality and morbidity in Asia (high \r\nconfidence). In addition to all-cause mortality (Dang et al., 2016; Chen \r\net  al., 2018e), deaths related to circulatory, respiratory, diabetic (Li \r\net al., 2014b) and infectious diseases (Ingole et al., 2015), as well as \r\ninfant mortality (Son et al., 2017), are increased with high temperature \r\n(high confidence). Increased hospital admissions (Giang et al., 2014; \r\nLin et  al., 2019) and ambulance transport (Onozuka and Hagihara, \r\n2015) coincide with increased ambient temperature (high confidence). \r\nHeatwaves are particularly detrimental to all-cause and cause-specific \r\nmortality (Chen et al., 2015a; Lee et al., 2016; Guo et al., 2017b; Yin et al., \r\n2018). Both rural and urban populations are vulnerable to heat-related \r\nmortality (Ma et  al., 2015; Chen et  al., 2016a; Wang et  al., 2018a)"


id: 65f0603450d95ec31450d88f14251979
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" \r\nIndividuals with lower degrees of education and socioeconomic status, \r\nolder individuals and individuals living in communities with less green \r\nspace are more susceptible to heat-related mortality (high confidence) \r\n(Yang et al., 2012a; Huang et al., 2015b; Seposo et al., 2015; Son et al., \r\n2016; Kim and Kim, 2017). These heat effects have been attenuating \r\nover recent decades in East Asian countries, although the driving force "


id: 91dcba5ba66185b511ee1222c6cdc975
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress will be approximately 250,000 \r\ndeaths per year in 2030-2050 under the medium-to-high emissions \r\nscenario, assuming no adaptation (World Health Organization, 2014). \r\nThe impacts are expected to be greatest in South, East and Southeast \r\nAsia. Another projection showed that the change in heat-related deaths \r\nis largest in Southeast Asia, which was a 12.7% increase at the end of \r\nthe century under a high-emissions scenario (Gasparrini et al., 2017). As \r\nthe proportion of older individuals in the population rises, the number of \r\nyears lost due to disability increases more steeply (Chung et al., 2017b). In \r\nthe 2080s, the number of annual temperature-related deaths is estimated \r\nto reach twice that in the 1980s in China (Li et al., 2018c). Over a 20-year \r\nperiod in the mid-21st century (2041-2060), the incidence of excess heat\u0002related mortality in 51 cities in China is estimated to reach 37,800 (95% \r\nCI: 31,300-43,500) deaths per year under RCP8"


id: 911b9543169cd80926626b6bf2f9207b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"The global estimates for increases in malaria and dengue deaths \r\n(annual estimates) are approximately 32,700 and 280 additional \r\ndeaths, respectively, in 2050 under the medium-to-high emissions \r\nscenario (World Health Organization, 2014). Among these additional \r\ndeaths, 9,300 and 200 deaths, respectively, are projected to occur in \r\nSouth Asia. The population at risk of malaria infection is estimated to \r\nincrease by 134 million by 2030 in South Asia under the medium-to\u0002high emissions scenario, considering socioeconomic development. If \r\nno actions are taken, malaria incidence in northern China is projected \r\nto increase by 69-182% by 2050 (Song et al., 2016). Another study \r\nsuggested a decrease in climate suitability for malaria in northern and \r\neastern India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Malaysia \r\nborder region, Cambodia, eastern Borneo and Indonesia by 2050 \r\n(Khormi and Kumar, 2016)"


id: bce4a62ab3b22d5b3edb4e8ec90aeede
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" By contrast, climate suitability for malaria is \r\nprojected to increase in the southern and southeast mainland of China \r\nand Taiwan, Province of China (Khormi and Kumar, 2016)."


id: bf1559d49e30a4dbb3af91d03ce3948e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"The health co-benefits of GHG mitigation measures in energy \r\ngeneration have been reported to reduce disease burden. In China, \r\nthe implementation of GHG policies would reduce the air-pollution\u0002associated disease burden by 44% in 2020 under the Integrate Carbon \r\nReduction scenario compared with the business-as-usual scenario \r\n(Liu et al., 2017b). Transition to a half-decarbonised power supply for \r\nthe residential and transport sectors would prevent 55,000-69,000 \r\ndeaths in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual scenario (Peng \r\net al., 2018). A shift in travel modes from private motor vehicles to the \r\nuse of mass rapid-transit lines is estimated to reduce CO2-equivalent \r\nemissions by 6% in greater Kuala Lumpur and bring important health \r\nco-benefits to the population (Kwan et  al., 2017)"


id: 72a918fc29e3c969899679ed50d2e72a
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" The 25 measures \r\ndeveloped for reducing air pollution levels in Asia and the Asia-\r\nPacific in general would reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by almost \r\n20% relative to baseline projections and decrease warming by 0.3degC \r\nby 2050, which could eventually reduce heat-related excess deaths \r\nin the region (UNEP, 2019). The 25 measures include conventional "


id: 580c1827dd3e8c1c647acc6d0d92393b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"climate change (Ali and Erenstein, 2017) and that farmers who are \r\nyounger, better educated, belong to joint families and possess more \r\nlandholdings are likely to adapt sooner and better. Correspondingly, \r\nthis category achieved higher levels of income and food security. \r\nThe climate-development nexus suggests that CCA practices at the \r\nfarm level can have significant development outcomes, besides \r\nreducing risk posed by changing weather patterns. Central to the \r\nCCA process is the growing recognition of the role that institutions \r\nplay in both the hierarchical setting and across different scales to \r\ninfluence implementation of CCA in diverse areas of governance \r\nacross social and political domains"


id: 6bbc2ab8781ee1027f27371dd0a57915
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" Cuevas (2018) highlights the \r\nusefulness of mainstreaming CCA into local land-use planning in \r\nAlbay, the Philippines, by involving networks of interacting institutions \r\nand institutional arrangements for overcoming obstacles that are \r\npotentially counterproductive and conflictual."


id: 62c2b0c4279330cf39512ac5c684eb24
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"cost-effective and innovative infrastructure projects. In the absence \r\nof major investments in resilience, climate change may force up to \r\n77  million people into a poverty trap by 2030 (World Bank, 2016). \r\nAs seen in the case of Japan, most of the countries in Asia face the \r\nchallenge of contractual allocation of risks associated with natural \r\nhazards and climate change between the public and private sectors \r\nand its long-term management in the face of uncertainty. Risk sharing, \r\ntherefore, could be addressed by clear definition and allocation (World \r\nBank, 2017). Given that in Asia, especially Singapore, China, Japan \r\nand Republic of Korea, where the water sector is a target of industrial \r\nand technology policy, PPPs could prove to be mutually beneficial"


id: 80f6efb8acb20e7d6758cf8355110e81
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" As \r\na middle ground, key findings of a study on Indonesia (Yoseph-Paulus \r\nand Hindmarsh, 2016) underline the importance of building, sustaining \r\nand augmenting local capacity by addressing inadequacies with regard \r\nto resource endowment and capacity building, public awareness about \r\nclimate change, government-community partnerships, vulnerability \r\nassessment and providing inclusive decision-making spaces to \r\nIndigenous knowledge systems and communities."


id: 6599ea1d0a0805bfbfa81035ef7d9a12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"As noted by AR5 (IPCC, 2014a), research on issues related to both \r\nclimate-change impacts on livestock production-demand for which is \r\nexpected to double by 2050 in a world of 10 billion people-and policy \r\nchoices with regard to adaptation, especially at the local scale, is still \r\nlimited but progressing (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017). The promise of \r\ndiversification of livestock animals (within species), crop diversification \r\nand transition to mixed crop-livestock systems needs to be further \r\nexplored. A study of livestock farmers in Pakistan showed that risk\u0002coping mechanisms, such as purchasing livestock insurance and \r\nincreasing land areas for fodder, are far more rewarding policy options \r\nin comparison with selling livestock and migrating to another place"


id: 7d67f6f2e79d159f6fb0d0adbf0ff17a
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" \r\nRelatedly, the association of migration with adaptation measures is \r\ncontext specific and involves a number of factors pertaining to the \r\nsocioeconomic circumstances of vulnerable agricultural groups in \r\ncountries like India and Bangladesh (Ojha et al., 2014). In the 2010 \r\nUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Cancun \r\nAdaptation Framework, migration was recognised as a form of \r\nadaptation that should be included in a country's long-term adaptation \r\nplanning where appropriate (Paragraph 14 f)."


id: 40daba837fe33baf8a709abc83d5ca34
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content:
"A study on farmers' awareness of, and adaptation to, climate change in \r\nthe dry zones of Myanmar, critically dependent on agriculture, indicates \r\nhow those at the front line of the adverse effects of climate change \r\nare steadily abandoning the common sesame/groundnut cropping \r\npattern, and trying to adapt to risks and uncertainties with the aid \r\nof conventional agricultural practices such as rainwater collection, \r\nwater-harvesting techniques and even traditional weather forecasting \r\ntechniques for weather prediction. Similarly, a case study of the Gandak \r\nbasin in Nepal showed that incorporation of local knowledge into \r\nagricultural practices and weather warning systems works best when \r\ncoupled with multiple sources of information based on a method of \r\ntriangulation. This also intersects with gender outcomes, where women \r\nfrequently receive information from the men of their households rather \r\nthan directly from state institutional sources (Acharya and Prakash, \r\n2019)"


id: be20a5f533c8cd6d6ef1c1466d0b73e4
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" Climate-change adaptive governance is facilitated by improved \r\ncross-scalar and cross-sectoral cooperation, exchange of information \r\nand experiences, and best practices (Smith et al., 2014; Watts et al., \r\n2015; Gamble et al., 2016; Gilfillan et al., 2017)."


id: f9bb784b2f35c5befc03d94aa22c4291
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"Furthermore, agricultural climate-adaptation policy targeting livestock \r\nfarmers in rural areas is very likely to benefit from better education and \r\nawareness as well as increased access to extension services among \r\nlivestock farmers on climate risk-coping choices and strategies (Rahut \r\nand Ali, 2018). In Myanmar, the lack of adequate agricultural extension \r\nstrategies has had a negative impact on adaptation outcomes in what \r\nis labelled the 'central dry zone'. Farmers' perceptions of climate change \r\ncontribute to a comprehensive understanding of the context where \r\nthey identify deforestation and related activities as the main culprits. \r\nTheir adaptive methods include agricultural land preparation and crop \r\nrotation practices in addition to rainwater-harvesting techniques (Swe \r\net al., 2015). A study of vulnerable areas in Bangladesh (Alam et al"


id: d58b2c0c0bba7569b26376c86990e393
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content:
", 2017) \r\nhas shown that with policy support, livestock rearing can prove to be a \r\nviable substitute for crop production in areas prone to riverbank erosion. \r\nCarefully developed partnerships between government organisations \r\nand NGOs can come to the rescue of poor farmers and their precarious \r\nhouseholds by providing information about best practices for local \r\nadaptation strategies, including credit options with various institutions \r\nand creating an enabling environment for the promotion of agro-based \r\nindustries. A study in community forestry in the Indian Himalayan region \r\n(Gupta and Koontz, 2019) has shown how the synergies and successful "


id: 2c574fa4bc03806a636f663e8fcee502
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"One of the major knowledge gaps in the domain of climate adaptation \r\ngovernance relates to implementation by various stakeholders at \r\nmultiple scales, and sharing of information and experiences in this \r\nregard. There is a need to assuage the perceptions of distrust in global \r\ninformation, through governance methods that engage multiple \r\nstakeholders in open and lucid channels of communication (Stott \r\nand Huq, 2014). This is observable in the structure of the New Urban \r\nAgenda which formed part of the SDGs pertaining to cities and has \r\nbeen shaped by a bottom-up process marked by diverse participation \r\nincluding communities, experts and activists, rather than the top\u0002down variant that is observable in the Millenium Development Goals \r\n(Barnett and Parnell, 2016). This approach could also be evidenced \r\nin the Paris Agreement, which placed the onus of a successful global \r\ngovernance regime on the development of efficient systems of regional \r\ngovernance"


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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4901
content:
" However, these emerging systems of regional governance \r\ncould equally pose a challenge to the global governance in a way that \r\ncan be witnessed through the development of financial groups such \r\nas the BRICS (associated economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and \r\nSouth Africa) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which resulted \r\nfrom a perception of inadequate institutional transformation at the \r\nglobal level. From another perspective, a comprehensive approach \r\nwould require simultaneous implementation of both bottom-up and \r\ntop-down models of governance, retaining flexibility of scale."


id: 7a72de1e7f4b7f7c25f7f65fff863bb8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"In an example from Nepal, Clement (2018) showed that deliberative \r\ngovernance mechanisms can create the space for alternative framings \r\nof climate change to take a hold in ways that are cognisant of both the \r\nlocal and global contexts; this moves beyond a dependence on techno\u0002managerialism in the construction of solutions, where local governance \r\nsolutions can support institutional changes. The possibilities more \r\nincorporating deliberative methods into wider governance architecture \r\nare also expanded through an acknowledgment of the role of social \r\nlearning; this is observable in the multi-stakeholder involvement that \r\nthis approach fosters in regions of South Asia such as the Brahmaputra \r\nRiver basin (Varma and Hazarika, 2018). Additionally, recent studies \r\nhave reconfirmed the importance of linking Indigenous knowledge \r\nwith the scientific knowledge of climate change in diverse regions \r\nof the globe, including Asia and Africa (Hiwasaki et al"


id: ed1c9bdf98107872a03671f8c6a707ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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", 2014; Etchart, \r\n2017; Taremwa et al., 2017; Vadigi, 2017; Apraku et al., 2018; Inaotombi \r\nand Mahanta, 2018; Makondo and Thomas, 2018) for building farmers' \r\nresilience, enhancing CCA, ensuring cross-cultural communication, \r\npromoting local skills, drawing upon Indigenous Peoples' intuitive \r\nthinking processes and geographic knowledge of remote areas."


id: 5cd0d064bbaa342672111951be588c48
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 12117
content:
"For nearly five decades, integrated coastal management (ICM), \r\nadvocated by several international organisations (e.g., IMO, UNEP, \r\nWHO, FAO) and adopted by over 100 countries, has been acknowledged \r\nas a holistic coastal governance approach aimed at achieving coastal \r\nsustainability and reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities \r\nin the face of multiple environmental impacts (high confidence). In \r\nview of threats posed to coastal ecological integrity by climate\u0002change-induced tropical storm activity, accelerated SLR and littoral \r\nerosion and social-ecological impacts on the livelihood security of \r\nvulnerable coastal communities, the pressing need for approaches that \r\ninnovatively combine coastal zone management and CCA measures \r\nis widely acknowledged (Rosendo et al., 2018) yet under researched"


id: 2bdf40d3f15511084bae38a34c35f4ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"The vision of BDP is revealed by the foregoing statement from Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh. The government approved \r\nBDP 2100 in 2018. Achievement of a safe, climate-resilient and prosperous delta is the aspiration of the delta plan. Ensuring water and \r\nfood security with economic growth, environmental sustainability, climate resilience, vulnerability reduction to natural hazards and \r\nminimising different challenges of the delta through robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water governance, are the \r\nmission of this mega plan. Under this mission, three higher-level goals and six specific goals have been determined. Three higher-level \r\ngoals include elimination of extreme poverty by 2030, achievement of upper middle-income status by 2030 and becoming a prosperous \r\ncountry beyond 2041. Six specific goals of BDP 2100 are fully linked with SDG Goals 2, 6, 13 and 14 and partially linked with Goals 1, \r\n5, 8, 9, 11 and 15"


id: e4042e3538ce4404779f3a101cf83400
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" These specific goals comprise a wide range of issues, including land and water resources, climate change, disaster, \r\nwetlands and ecosystems, river systems and estuaries. The vision, mission and goals of BDP 2100 reveal that this mega plan is a holistic \r\nand integrated approach considering diversified themes and sectors for the whole country. The implementation of the BDP 2100 requires \r\ntotal spending of an amount of about 2.5% of the GDP per annum. A series of strategies have been formulated for better implementation \r\nof the mega plan."


id: bc1910c05259b56dbb42f5784d0e7255
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Steadily the regional scale of climate adaptive governance is acquiring \r\nsalience in diverse sub-regions of Asia, and more policy-oriented \r\nempirical research is needed on how various regional forums, agencies \r\nand multilateral organisations could further contribute by way of in\u0002house expertise and other resources, including financial. A study of \r\nclimate adaptation in the health sector in Southeast Asia (Gilfillan, \r\n2018) highlights the growing role of the Asian Development Bank \r\n(ADB) and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, \r\nand shows that their mandates and goals could mutually benefit from \r\nthe institutionalisation of coordination mechanism. An example from \r\nthe Maldives shows that the 2014 Tsunami, climate change and the \r\nrisk of extreme weather events have led to the legitimisation of state\u0002led population resettlement programmes"


id: 237ae0750cd8c88b5a03d29bc4413c4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" In China, this has occurred \r\nthrough the renaming of previously existing resettlement initiatives as \r\nclimate adaptation initiatives; however, the efficacy of resettlement as \r\na CCA measure requires further scrutiny (Arnall, 2019). In India, the \r\nNational Adaptation Fund on Climate Change has been instituted in \r\norder to enable states to implement adaptation programmes; however, \r\nthis does not address the question of mainstreaming CCA into designs \r\nfor development (Prasad and Sud, 2019). This is closely related to the \r\ndevelopment of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) \r\nwhere the mainstreaming of adaptation within countries has been \r\nan important concern. Insights from developing countries indicate "


id: 1305336828599eeb6e22ee93877ccb55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"A distinguishing feature of the case of Japanese apple growers is the co\u0002existence of both top-down and bottom-up adaptation practices. The \r\nformer pertains to farmers who rely on the support of the cooperative \r\nfor agricultural support and follow institutional mechanisms. The \r\nlatter pertains to non-co-op farmers who have been responsible for \r\ninnovative practices of cultivation such as the shift to peaches and \r\nthe sale in the market of apples without leaf-picking. Importantly, \r\nthe non-co-op group also have access to sales channels that may \r\nnot be accessible to the former owing to their direct interactions \r\nwith customers, among other factors (Fujisawa and Kobayashi, 2011; \r\nFujisawa et  al., 2015)"


id: c14066e7f33c818e1410de6a2d0b2538
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" The significance of this combination of top\u0002down and bottom-up approaches to agricultural adaptation practices \r\nmay be further sharpened by formulating approaches for Asia and \r\nthe Pacific region in ways that contribute to the fortification of food \r\nsecurity objectives and the idea of co-benefits. This may be carried \r\nout by enhancing the ability of farmers to better manage cultivation \r\npractices in the context of climatic variability (FAO, 2018d)."


id: bad245e09c8cbaf0bfd997e61384c09b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"climatic information and its uptake and implementation through \r\ninstitutional policy arrangements remain areas of concern (Cuevas, \r\n2018). Institutional incentives to agricultural production, for instance, \r\nare frequently compounded by the negative impacts they have on \r\nexisting bases of natural resources. The disconnected operations of local \r\ngovernmental agencies coupled with inadequacies of cross-sectoral \r\ncoordination further highlights the prevalent food-water-energy nexus \r\n(Rasul, 2016). One possible way of addressing these intersecting sources' \r\ncomplexity is by locating emerging CCA measures in educational \r\ndevelopment. The introduction of CCA thinking into land-use planning in \r\nthe Philippines is an example of the successful role of enhancing public \r\neducation and awareness through the dissemination of information \r\nby institutional channels"


id: aff5910890b1f6a9d2ba85276e3706de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" The linkages between the strength of local \r\nleadership and the inclusion of CCA in localised planning activities are \r\nalso well illustrated by the case study of Cuevas (2018)."


id: d742ac73f5c7b8e8cc300bef9941aafc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"As shown in the case of Pakistan, level of education shares a positive \r\nrelationship with the implementation of adaptation measures (Ali and \r\nErenstein, 2017). However, a closer examination of the educational \r\nimperatives that drive CCA in ways that improve the representational \r\narchitecture of adaptation actions through a focus on gender is needed. \r\nMainstreaming of gender into CCA would involve addressing a host \r\nof barriers to education and involvement that are often rooted in the \r\ndifferential structures of households, social norms and roles, and the \r\ndomestic division of labour (Rao et al., 2019). A study from the Indian \r\nstate of Bihar shows that gender plays a major role in determining \r\nintra-household decision making and also inhibits the ability of female\u0002headed households to establish access to agricultural extension \r\nservices (Mehar et al., 2016)"


id: 12caecef9674cdf06f847ef07eaba2c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Even within wider female farmer-operated \r\nfederations, such as the Bangladesh Kishani Sabha (BKS), the barriers \r\nto participation stem from social factors that include the limitation of \r\nfemale mobility through the gendered division of labour and a lack of \r\nrecognition of female agency (Routledge, 2015). Gendered inequalities \r\nin educational attainment and outcomes viewed through the lens of \r\nsocial vulnerability thus intersect with environmental vulnerabilities in \r\nways that affect the ability of women to participate in CCA, owing \r\nalso to a lack of access to health and sanitation facilities. These factors \r\nhave a direct impact on the ability of adaptation to be effective in \r\nthe global South, and are especially important in the context of the \r\ncommitments of the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms \r\nof Discrimination Against Women countries to the objective of gender \r\nequality (Roy, 2018)."


id: 9b4ba8f963f3500670a4cdc42bf99474
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"A community-based DRR system provides risk investigation, training \r\nand information analysis (Liu et  al., 2016b). Sharing information \r\nenhances establishment of such a system and contributes to disaster \r\nprevention (Nakamura et  al., 2017). One example is an online \r\nmapping tool, which has been developed by volunteers (Sakurai and \r\nThapa, 2017). Social media enables the population to access real\u0002time information on a disaster (Ghosh et al., 2018), raises situation \r\nawareness (Yin et  al., 2012) and empowers communities towards \r\nappropriate emergency actions (Leong et  al., 2015). Among the \r\nvarious forms of social media, Twitter is widely used as a social sensor \r\nto detect what is happening in a disaster event (Sakaki et al., 2013). \r\nAccuracy of information on Twitter has been proved in collecting local \r\ndetails about floods (Shi et al., 2019b); however, it has been noticed \r\nthat Twitter generates rumours as well (Ogasahara et  al., 2019)"


id: a8799bbeed3ace823422424d37cf0a2a
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" \r\nArtificial intelligence is expected to reduce human error when they \r\noperate a decision-making system (Lin et al., 2018). Since technologies \r\nsupporting DRR completely depend on electricity, the loss of power \r\nsupply and communication constrains the recovery work in disaster\u0002affected areas (Sakurai et al., 2014)."


id: caf4d3013b5829b22e8815516fe46317
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"use efficiency as well as greatly increased soil organic carbon content \r\nwith reduced GHG emissions. It results in a win-win situation in terms \r\nof enhancing food security and mitigating climate warming (Deng et al., \r\n2017). However, usability and application of this technology are still \r\nnot common, especially in data-scarce regions. Integrated numerical \r\nsimulations are efficient tools for estimating the current status and \r\npredicting the risk and efficiency of the adaptive capabilities of different \r\ncountermeasures for sustainable natural resource management \r\nsuch as with water (Kumar, 2019)"


id: 5cc9cb0f2752bc7ced841dd649079819
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" Similarly, the agent-based model \r\nis commonly used to estimate risk of food-borne diseases due to \r\nclimate change, using tunable parameters such as hygiene level, the \r\nmicroorganism's growth rate and the number of consumers, and hence \r\nit has the potential to be a useful tool for optimising decision making \r\nand urban planning strategies related to health and climate change \r\n(Gay Garcia et al., 2017). The integrated assessment model under the \r\nshared-socioeconomic pathway (SSP) framework is effectively used to \r\nestimate future energy development and possible mitigation strategies \r\nto reduce GHG emissions related to the energy sector (Bauer et al., 2017)"


id: 1a6cefa850ddb36743e5fcac903c0c45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" \r\nSound understanding of different drivers, pressures and stress factors, \r\nsuch as abnormal temperature, rainfall, insect pests or pathogens and \r\ntheir interaction pattern with the genetic makeup of crops, is the key \r\nto produce high-yielding varieties of wheat with better nutritional \r\nquality and resistance to major diseases (Goel et al., 2017). Another \r\ncritical point to address this water security is inclusive, polycentric and \r\nadaptive governance. Polycentric governance is a means by which \r\nwater management plans and policies should be framed and agreed by \r\nall relevant stakeholders. For adaptive governance, more emphasis will \r\nbe on finding the best pathways to make robust water management \r\nplans amid rapid global changes. The benefit of such plans should \r\nreach the end users in terms of providing clean water, protection from \r\nhydrological hazards and maintaining the health of the ecosystem"


id: a12b17d1716087d519609adc2da4b7bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" In \r\naddition, there is urgent need for co-management, which includes the \r\ncycle of co-design, co-implementation and co-delivery throughout the \r\nwhole water cycle. The best suitable example is using the circulating \r\nand ecological sphere (CES) approach. The CES is a concept that \r\ncomplements and supports regional resources by building broader \r\nnetworks, which are composed of natural connections (connections \r\namong forests; city and countryside; groundwater, rivers and the sea) \r\nand economic connections (human resources, funds and others), thus \r\ncomplementing each other and generating synergy (Mavrodieva and \r\nShaw, 2020). Another suitable example for managing water resources is \r\nthe participatory watershed land-use management (PWLM) approach. \r\nThe PWLM is another very innovative and successful approach for more \r\nrobust water resource management as explained by Kumar et al. (2020). \r\nIt helps to make land-use and CCA policies more effective at the local \r\nscale"


id: f69eebb4d8ae76b5f3d7010effa4c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" This is an integrative method using both participating tactics and \r\ncomputer-simulation modelling for water resource management at the \r\nregional scale.\r\n10.5.2.2.4 Forests and biodiversity"


id: 99dcd7177d9913bf845e81f1a2cfadb2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"conducting climate risk assessments (Perera and Emmanuel, 2018; \r\nBechtel et al., 2019) and/or simulations of future land-use or climate \r\nchanges in urban areas (Bateman et al., 2016; Iizuka et al., 2017; Liu \r\net al., 2017c)-AI technologies (e.g., machine-learning algorithms) are \r\nnow being widely adopted (Johnson and Iizuka, 2016; Joshi et  al., \r\n2016; Mao et  al., 2017). Thanks to advances in cloud-computing \r\ntechnology, which allows for online processing of massive volumes \r\nof remote sensing data, high-resolution (~30 m) global urban-area \r\nmaps from the late 1990s to 2018 are now available from several \r\ndifferent sources (Gong et  al., 2020). Using these historical maps, \r\nresearchers have been able to generate maps of future urban land-use \r\nchanges at the global level to 2100 (Chen et al., 2020a), which can \r\nhelp to elucidate the potential impacts of this future urban expansion \r\nand identify adaptation needs"


id: e0c4dcc1e1693bedfa6e2373b9db5eaa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" Technology also plays a major role in \r\nurban planning and design in the context of adaptation. To mitigate \r\nrising urban temperatures and reduce the impacts of climate-related \r\nhazards, many new 'grey' infrastructure and 'green' infrastructure \r\ntechnologies are being adopted in urban areas in Asia, for example, \r\ncool (i.e., high solar reflectance) rooftops and pavements as well as \r\ngreen (i.e., vegetated) rooftops to mitigate high temperatures; and \r\nporous pavements to mitigate flooding (Akbari and Kolokotsa, 2016)."


id: bafb08a548f39131eab6c2b87db6c96c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 26955
content:
"Having scientific knowledge relevant at the local scale through \r\nplaced knowledge is important to identify climate-change risk and \r\nvulnerability. Moreover, once integrated with socioeconomic attributes, \r\nit can be useful for natural resource management, agriculture and so \r\nforth (Leith and Vanclay, 2017). Role of big data and data mining is \r\nundeniably very huge to get reliable climatic information and hence \r\nfor designing appropriate adaptation measures for natural resource \r\nmeasurement. For example, use of big data in terms of EWS and real\u0002time observation data provides more accurate information on hydro\u0002meteorological extreme weather conditions or hazards like drought and \r\nflood, and will help farmers and local governments to improve their \r\nperception and hence preparedness for better adaptation (Hou et al., \r\n2017; Ong and G.L.B.L., 2017)"


id: 4bdc6b4e286f0888b4173fbf90398ea3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9352
content:
"adopting infrastructure technologies requires investment, and due to \r\nthe inherent uncertainties of climate projections, the future payoffs of \r\nthese investments are also somewhat uncertain (Ginbo et al., 2020). In \r\nthe water and infrastructure sectors, for example, various options exist \r\nfor conducting cost-benefit analysis considering future uncertainty \r\n(i.e., so-called robust approaches, which are able to identify adaptation \r\nprojects and infrastructure that can achieve their intended purpose(s) \r\nacross a wide range of climate scenarios) (Dittrich et al., 2016). Despite \r\nsubstantial investment and progress in research, development and \r\ncapacity building in the recent past, the majority of the developing \r\ncountries in Asia are struggling to manage both water resources and the \r\nagriculture sector"


id: 978214193d904f4869075b4a8fc8dfc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 21361
content:
" Considering the frequent extreme weather conditions, \r\nprogress in management tasks has become even more mammoth and, \r\nhence, we need a holistic solution, which is currently missing in field \r\nimplementation. This solution should be based on advanced science and \r\ntechnology in association with other attributes like social, economic and \r\npolitical dynamics, which play a pivotal role in sustainable management \r\nof water resources and agriculture, as a way forward."


id: 70159e91af1e14be52de5d6be0810d2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"(MODIS) series for widespread monitoring of forests and ecological \r\nresources. These series have provided reliable information on forests \r\nand ecosystem services at the country level, in difficult terrains, such as \r\nthe mountains, cross-boundaries and otherwise inaccessible areas. For \r\ninstance, Yin et al. (2017) estimated cross-boundary forest resources in \r\nCentral Asia, a region which traditionally suffered from lack of reliable \r\nforest data, using remote sensing techniques. In a separate study, \r\nReddy et al. (2020) used long-term MODIS forest fire data from 2003 \r\nto 2017 to characterise fire frequency, density and hotspots in South \r\nAsia. Archives of scientific data, backed by state-of-the art modelling \r\ntechniques, advanced-computing methods and innovations in big-data \r\nanalysis, particularly helped the provisioning of scientific research"


id: 69637ee6f6f52175fb0bfb3bd08bb46c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" \r\nA number of studies simulated forest futures from the local to the \r\ncontinent scale under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios. \r\nFor instance, at the local scale, Dasgupta et al. (2018) projected the \r\nfuture extent of mangroves in the Sundarban Delta under four local \r\nscenarios, while Estoque et al. (2019) modelled and developed spatial \r\nmaps of regional forest futures in Southeast Asia using the five SSP \r\nscenarios. Science and technology also helped the monitoring of \r\nspecies diversity and abundance, pivotal for sustaining an ecosystem \r\nand ecosystem-based adaptation. Digital camera traps and radio\u0002collaring methods have largely replaced old film cameras and labour\u0002intensive methods of photo screening to count target species (Pimm \r\net al., 2015). This enhanced scientific capacities to monitor biodiversity \r\nand facilitate better conservation in difficult terrains, control poachers \r\nand maintain steady ecological balance. Umapathy et al"


id: a4a4b745d13bf548adc48b17ce33521
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" (2016), for \r\nexample, used VHF radio collars and satellite-based tracking tools to \r\nmonitor the movement of Bengal tigers over hostile island terrain. \r\nPhoto recognition and other non-invasive techniques for individual \r\nidentification have been rising in Asia. For example, a study by Gray et al. \r\n(2014) used faecal-DNA samples to estimate the population density \r\nof the Asian elephant in Cambodia. Furthermore, the advancement of \r\ncitizen science programmes has greatly facilitated better monitoring of \r\nforest resources, including invasive floral and faunal species (Chandler \r\net al., 2017; Johnson et al., 2020). In Asia, citizen science has been used \r\neffectively in India (Chandler et al., 2017), and also in Malaysia for the \r\nmonitoring urban bird abundance (Puan et al., 2019)."


id: 301e30e9fa29f96dd04370af6d2a1916
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 4994
content:
"Understanding the motivations and processes underpinning decisions \r\nto adapt or not is key to enabling adaptation (see Section 17.2.2.1; \r\nClayton et  al., 2015; de Coninck et  al., 2018; Taylor, 2019; van \r\nValkengoed and Steg, 2019a; van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019b), \r\nbecause how and why certain people adapt is shaped by sociocultural \r\nfactors, ways of making sense of risks and uncertainty, and personal \r\nmotivations to undertake action (Nguyen et al., 2016; Mortreux and \r\nBarnett, 2017; Singh et al., 2018b; van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019b). \r\nThe IPCC's Assessment Report 5 was critiqued for silences on how \r\nperceptions shape climate action and the behavioural drivers of \r\nadaptation responses (Lorenzoni and Whitmarsh, 2014). Addressing \r\nthis gap and assessing the growing literature from social sciences, \r\nnotably psychology, behavioural economics and risk perception \r\nstudies, the IPCC Special Report on 1.5degC (de Coninck et  al"


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", 2018) \r\ncomprehensively assessed behavioural dimensions of CCA for the \r\nfirst time; however, compared with studies on mitigation behaviour, \r\nthe literature on what motivates adaptation remains incomplete \r\n(Lorenzoni and Whitmarsh, 2014; Clayton et al., 2015)."


id: aad03e88beaf2adbb40c439293f1e6c9
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"With rapid advances of technologies, the use of appropriate technologies \r\ngenerates some degree of management problems. To resolve such \r\nproblems, the enhancement of information science is essential to \r\nunderstand design, implementation and adoption of digital tools under \r\ncrisis (Xie et  al., 2020). For example, social media research reveals a \r\nway of controlling malicious information (Tanaka et al., 2014), and its \r\ncharacteristics under COVID-19-showing a plain text message-can be \r\nmore powerful in the context of citizen engagement than media-rich \r\ncommunications (Chen et  al., 2020b). Information behaviour needs \r\nmore investigation to understand how people survive and connect in \r\nthe era of information overload (Pan et al., 2020). Moreover, a new set of \r\ndata (e.g., travel history record, personal health data, etc.) becomes an \r\nimportant base of DRR (Xie et al., 2020)"


id: 8bd3cc0f3c603baab407cfec799c4eea
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" Analysis of these personal data \r\nrequires careful consideration, as it generates ethical issues (Sakurai \r\nand Chughtai, 2020). Indicators or measurements of technology\u0002enabled crisis response needs to be developed for further risk reduction \r\n(Akbari and Kolokotsa, 2016; Wong et  al., 2020). On the other hand, "


id: ab8689f2dcbc31064b7a509d518ef58
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"Belief in climate variability and change significantly shapes adaptation \r\ndecision making (Le Dang et al., 2014; Singh et al., 2016; Khanal et al., \r\n2018; Liu et al., 2018a) with those believing in climate change and \r\nassociated impacts tending to engage in adaptation. Crucially, those \r\nwho do not believe in climate change can be influenced by social norms \r\n(Arunrat et  al., 2017) thereby incentivising adaptation behaviour. \r\nWhile risk perception is a critical step in adaptation decision making, \r\nhigher risk perception does not necessarily signal better capacity to \r\ncope: in Taiwan, Province of China, Sun and Han (2018) highlight \r\nhow perceptions of climate risk as a global problem tends reduce its \r\nurgency as an individual issue. Providing information on climate risks, \r\nimpacts and possible adaptation options enables adaptation behaviour \r\n(Piya et al., 2013; Zheng and Dallimer, 2016; Rauf et al"


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", 2017), but \r\ninformation alone is not sufficient to motivate adaptive behaviour. \r\nSpecifically, awareness building on concrete measures and outcomes, \r\nsuch as the amount of water saved or number of deaths averted, rather \r\nthan abstract notions of climate change, motivate adaptation (Deng \r\net al., 2017; Rauf et al., 2017)."


id: 6574b4efda18190eac1784033e08224a
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"In disaster risk management, risk appraisal (Samaddar et al., 2014; Rauf \r\net al., 2017; Hung et al., 2018), previous experience and losses (Said \r\net al., 2015; Hung et al., 2018; Walch, 2018)12, perceived probabilities \r\nand consequences (Reynaud et al., 2013), perceived self-efficacy (Ung \r\net al., 2015; Hung et al., 2018) and awareness (Hung et al., 2018; Wu \r\net al., 2018a; Alvi and Khayyam, 2020) shape preparedness. Individual \r\nrisk management is nested within public policies, such as those on \r\nflood management, which shape individual flood risk perception \r\nand protective behaviours (Reynaud et al., 2013) as well as personal \r\nfactors such as religious beliefs (Alshehri et al., 2013). For example, \r\ncommunities often perceive disasters as 'acts of God' (Birkmann \r\net  al., 2019) or punishment for wrongdoings (Alshehri et  al., 2013; \r\nIqbal et al., 2018), which might constrain adaptive action"


id: fdf65afda809713a4a9d2c6702a9a513
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" However, \r\nreligious faith can also motivate people to prepare for extreme events, \r\nas Alshehri et al. (2013) showed in Saudi Arabia demonstrating how \r\n'Islam urges that it is most important to prepare the people to escape \r\nfrom disaster' (p.1825)."


id: 35b06ca5f2de0b5c1fd0c2b05dc27107
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"Estimates of adaptation costs and financial needs have evolved \r\nsignificantly since the previous IPCC assessments. These developments \r\nare based on improvements in the understanding of how the hazard \r\ninteracts with the physical and socioeconomic elements, and how \r\nto capture these interactions in systematic modelling frameworks. \r\nThe developments are also clearly reported especially in the area of \r\naddressing the underestimates in adaptation costs that the previous \r\nstudies suffered from as the previous studies tended to rely on data \r\nfrom wealthy economies (Hochrainer-Stigler et  al., 2014; Carleton \r\net  al., 2020). The adaptation cost estimates have also improved \r\nsince the previous IPCC reports due to constant improvements in \r\ncapturing the loss and damages of disaster events (Hochrainer-Stigler \r\net al., 2014)"


id: b93002daad1e09fcfd921d9e10209b1e
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" The reliance of earlier studies on correlations to derive \r\nadaptation costs was addressed to some extent by addressing the \r\nendogeneity of disaster measures (Kousky, 2014), especially by relying \r\nupon the physical measures of disasters such as wind speed, although \r\nmore work is needed in this area."


id: 769996e4ca4215e0abf23d5f1ac4ba1d
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"East Asia: Tezuka et al. (2014); Elliott et al. (2015); Lei et al. (2015); Li et al. (2015a); Li et al. (2015b); Kim et al. (2016a); Lee and Kim (2016); Yu (2016); Zhao et al. (2016b); \r\nAbadie et al. (2017); Chen et al. (2017a); Chen et al. (2017b); Chung et al. (2017b); Lee et al. (2017); Feng et al. (2018a); Lee et al. (2018b); Lee et al. (2018c); Udo and Takeda \r\n(2018); Yu et al. (2018a); Yu et al. (2018c); Lee et al. (2019); Liu et al. (2019c); Liu et al. (2019d); Wang et al. (2019b); Wu et al. (2019d); Kim and Lee (2020); Liu (2020); Liu and \r\nChen (2020); Yu et al. (2020). Southeast Asia: Giuliani et al. (2016); Dau et al. (2017); Vu and Ranzi (2017); Mehvar et al. (2018). South Asia: Wijetunge (2014); Ahmed et al. \r\n(2016b); Jevrejeva et al. (2016); Patankar and Patwardhan (2016); Abadie et al. (2017); Aslam et al. (2017); Chiba et al. (2017); Mishra et al. (2017); van der Geest (2017); Chhogyel \r\nand Kumar (2018); Jevrejeva et al"


id: 963cc0cc0cbdca261a4524cca4f465aa
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
" (2018); Leng and Hall (2019); Bahinipati (2020); Bahinipati and Patnaik (2020); Khan et al. (2020); Bhowmik et al. (2021). Central Asia: Groll \r\net al. (2015); Babagaliyeva et al. (2017); Otto et al. (2017). North Asia: Gleick (2014); Hjort et al. (2018); Tschakert et al. (2019). West Asia: Mantyka-Pringle et al. (2015); Pal and \r\nEltahir (2016); Ghomian and Yousefian (2017); Gohari et al. (2017); Ashrafzadeh et al. (2019b); Bierkens and Wada (2019); Houmsi et al. (2019); Mosavi et al. (2020).\r\n(a) For definitions on losses and damages and limits, see Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 1."


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"Adaptation cost estimates can vary between various studies due \r\nto the differences in methodologies they adopt. Some studies have \r\nconducted cost assessments using a combination of stakeholder \r\nconsultations and quantitative modelling of climate-change impacts \r\nand adaptation (Ahmed and Suphachalasai, 2014), while others \r\ndepended solely on the quantitative modelling. Studies also differ in \r\nthe coverage of sectors too: they either have focused on the multiple \r\nvulnerable sectors (Ahmed and Suphachalasai, 2014) or on a single \r\nsector (Hossain et al., 2019). Studies have differed in their estimates \r\ndepending on their ability to take into consideration the transition \r\ncosts of sudden adaptation (Hossain et  al., 2019), the nature of \r\nsocial cost and/or damage functions employed (Arto et al., 2019), the \r\ndiscount rates applied (Markandya and Gonzalez-Eguino, 2019) and \r\nconsideration for the effects of GHG mitigation on adaptation needs \r\n(Duan et al., 2019a)"


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" In addition, the assumptions made on the pace \r\nof adaptation in estimating adaptation costs can make a difference \r\nin adaptation cost estimates. Adaptation at a slow or normal pace \r\ncould require more adaptation finance, as large amounts of damage \r\nare not eliminated, than when adaptation is implemented at a faster \r\nrate (Markandya and Gonzalez-Eguino, 2019). Although there have \r\nbeen improvements in adaptation cost estimates, there is a need to \r\naddress the issue of endogeneity (Kousky, 2014; Samuel et al., 2019). \r\nThe vast majority of studies that rely on databases, such as EM-DAT, \r\ntend to suffer from such endogeneity problems due to their inability \r\nto control the causality between GDP and damages (Kousky, 2014). \r\nCosts attributable to non-economic losses and damages are the least \r\nreported and least quantified in the adaptation costs literature due to \r\nlack of sufficient, robust and accessible methodologies (Chiba et al., \r\n2017; Chiba et al., 2019; Serdeczny, 2019)"


id: d3ce53a4eb0465853547d149a6e3ef73
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" This is a major limitation \r\nin assessing adaptation costs and financial needs, and it can lead \r\nto gross underestimation of adaptation costs. A detailed description \r\nof issues related to non-economic losses and damages, and its \r\nimportance in strengthening adaptation, is provided in Box 10.6 and \r\nTable 10.5."


id: 734a6c391750ef97ae8586c7a6002a1e
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"As against financing post-disaster relief and reconstruction, which \r\nhas been the norm of disaster management for decades in Asia, the \r\nevolution of ex-ante risk financing in the form of risk insurance has \r\nseen a steady rise globally and in Asia. The rise in popularity for risk \r\nfinancing in general and insurance in specific stem from the observation \r\nthat governments have recognised the burden of mainly financing the \r\npost-disaster relief and reconstruction only (Juswanto and Nugroho, \r\n2017; UNESCAP, 2018c; ADB, 2019), and from the realisation of cost \r\nsavings and efficiency that risk financing for risk mitigation brings \r\noverall risk reduction (high agreement, medium evidence)"


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" As a result, \r\na gamut of risk-financing instruments have been introduced to finance \r\nDRR and CCA initiatives in Asia among which risk insurance has gained \r\nprominence for it provides a low-cost and easy option for individuals, \r\nprovides an opportunity for the governments to effectively engage \r\nthe private sector in implementation and has the ability to inculcate \r\nrisk-aware decision making at various levels (high agreement, medium \r\nevidence) (Hazell and Hess, 2017; UNESCAP, 2018c)."


id: 5047e4864436703a65c85f34d99cb83d
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"To address the issues associated with traditional indemnity insurance, \r\nefforts have been made to develop weather-index insurance in Asia \r\nthat bases the payouts on the rainfall or temperature index, rather \r\nthan on the direct damage measurements. The parametric insurance \r\nproducts help avoid the delays in insurance payouts as they are based \r\non modelled risks, rather than actual damage measurements, and \r\ncontrol the adverse selection and moral hazard, although basis risks \r\ncould be increased due to improper matching of payouts with the \r\nindex (De Leeuw et al., 2014). Index insurance is known to promote \r\npublic-private partnerships that in turn will enhance the efficiency of \r\noverall programme delivery (Hazell and Hess, 2017). Several countries, \r\nincluding India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar and the \r\nPhilippines, either are currently piloting or expanding the weather-index \r\ninsurance (Surminski and Oramas-Dorta, 2014; Tyagi and Joshi, 2019)"


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" \r\nIndex insurance is constantly expanding with an estimated 194 million \r\nfarmers already enrolled in China and India, which is much lower than \r\nthe potential number of farmers it can reach (Hazell et al., 2017)."


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"Few significant bottlenecks that are limiting the scaling up of weather\u0002index insurance include lack of reliable weather data, low density \r\nof weather stations leading to high basis risk, and limited data on \r\ndamage and hazard for parametric modelling of the insurance \r\n(Shirsath et al., 2019). Several innovations are being tried and tested \r\nto overcome the limitations associated with the index insurance \r\nwhich include developing multiscale index insurance, application of \r\nremote sensing, smartphone-based near-surface remote sensing and \r\nbuilding insurance based on vegetation indices instead of relying on \r\nweather data alone (Hufkens et  al., 2019). Alternative indices, such \r\nas the NDVI, are being tested for their applications in designing \r\nindex-based insurance in India (IFAD, 2017). Agro-meteorology-based \r\nstatistical analysis and crop growth modelling have been suggested \r\nto calibrate and rectify faulty weather indices (Shirsath et al., 2019; \r\nZhu et al., 2019)"


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" Establishing automatic weather stations can improve \r\ndata accuracy while preventing the delay in acquiring the weather \r\ndata (Sinha and Tripathi, 2016). These technological applications have \r\nalready started finding space within insurance programmes designed \r\nby national governments in Asia. For example, the government of India \r\nhas released new operational guidelines for the application of new \r\ntechnologies such as drones, remote sensing and mobile phone apps \r\nin implementation of the national agricultural insurance, which is the \r\nthird largest insurance in the world (Department of Agriculture, 2019)."


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"Social protection programmes assist individuals and families, especially \r\nthe poor and vulnerable, cope with crises and shocks, finds jobs, improve \r\nproductivity, invest in the health and education of their children, and \r\nprotect the ageing population (Bank, 2018b). Social protection that \r\nis well designed and implemented in a more long-term approach can \r\nenhance human capital and productivity, reduce inequalities, build \r\nresilience and empowerment, and end the inter-generational cycle \r\nof poverty (medium evidence, medium agreement) as indicated from \r\nvarious experiences in the region such as (a) cash transfer programmes \r\nin Indonesia (Kwon and Kim, 2015), (b) the Benazir Income Support \r\nProgramme in Pakistan (Watson et al., 2017), (c) the Chars Livelihoods \r\nProgramme in Bangladesh (Pritchard et  al., 2015) and (d) Minsei-in \r\ndesignated volunteer social workers in Japan (Boeckmann, 2016)"


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" A \r\nkey consideration in strengthening resilience through SP programmes \r\nis to design with climate and disaster risk considerations in mind \r\nand implement in close synergy with existing programmes, such as \r\non sustainable livelihoods, EWS and financial inclusion (Coirolo et al., \r\n2013; Bank, 2018a)."


id: cc4de0f2e1798b6ce7133c62707fb0d2
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"policies (Canonge, 2016). In order to enhance SP programmes, one of \r\nthe cross-cutting issues is to discuss the linkages between gender roles \r\nand responsibilities, food security, agricultural productivity and the \r\nmediating role that SP programmes can have (Jones et al., 2017). Social \r\nprotection has a potentially important role to play in contributing to \r\nfood security and agricultural productivity in a gender-responsive way \r\n(Holmes and Jones, 2013). As such, experience from Challenging the \r\nFrontiers of Poverty Reduction: Targeting the Ultra Poor programme \r\nin Bangladesh has promoted social innovation by creating social and \r\neconomic values, fostering microenterprises, increasing food security \r\nand fostering inclusive growth, all while empowering ultra-poor \r\nwomen (Emran et al., 2014; Mahmuda et al., 2014). Although there is \r\nincreasing evidence that SP programmes are having a positive impact \r\nin terms of reducing vulnerability in women's everyday lives (Jones \r\net al"


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", 2017), the transformative impact of these programmes is rare \r\ndue to limitations in recognising women's access to productive inputs \r\nand resources (Tanjeela and Rutherford, 2018; Cameron, 2019)."


id: cbf454fe93ee6631c8d723456c962b1e
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"Risks are generally amplified for people without SP or essential \r\ninfrastructure and services, and for people with limited access to land \r\nand quality housing, especially those in exposed areas and informal \r\nsettlements without secure tenure (ESCAP, 2017). Stateless people are \r\ndisproportionately affected by climate change and disasters as they \r\ntend to reside in hazard-prone areas and their statues as non-citizens \r\noften limits access to assistance (Connell, 2015). The three main types \r\nof SP are: (a) social safety nets (also known as social assistance), \r\nwhich include conditional and unconditional cash transfers, public \r\nwork programmes, subsidies and food stamps; (b) social insurance, \r\nwhich consists of contributory pensions and contributory health \r\ninsurance; and (c) labour market measures, which include instruments \r\nsuch as unemployment compensation (Bank, 2018b)"


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" The potential \r\nfor an integrated adaptive SP is not yet harnessed by policymakers \r\nin tackling the structural causes of vulnerability to climate change \r\n(Tenzing, 2019). Public works programmes (i.e., India's Mahatma \r\nGandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, MGNREGA) should \r\ntake into account climate risk in planning and support development of \r\ncommunity assets to increase collective resilience."


id: ab6136a0af4a3b1a2b61e913cead77bf
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"On the other hand, poor governance practices affect delivery of SP \r\nprogrammes and the ability of beneficiary households to reap the \r\nbenefits from such support (Sijapati, 2017). In Nepal, a closer look at \r\npublic expenditure shows that about 60% of the SP budget is used \r\nby social insurance programmes that predominantly consist of public\u0002sector pensions (Babken Babajanian, 2014; Koehler, 2014). Towards \r\nthis end, more effort is needed to improve its existing programmes so \r\nthat there is an equality of opportunities, along with secured human \r\nrights. The example from Nepal's Child Grant is an indicative of an \r\nincremental approach to social policy (Garde et al., 2017)"


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" Meanwhile, in \r\nthe Philippines, despite the existence of flagship national interventions \r\nthat cover a significant number of people in need and have clear and \r\nrobust implementation rules, there are still many programmes with \r\noverlapping mandates and target population, and several gaps in their \r\nmonitoring systems (Bank, 2018b)."


id: 7caa3b19c502dd39688e330dbcfc5cf0
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"Having an integrated SP information system would allow policymakers \r\nto better monitor inputs, outputs and outcomes (e.g., who the \r\nbeneficiaries are, what they are receiving, at what frequency, what the \r\nexisting gaps are) (OECD, 2017a; Samad and Shahid, 2018). Based on \r\nevidence from the assessments of three countries (Mongolia, Nepal and \r\nVietnam), the political and institutional arrangements (i.e., the software) \r\nis as important as the technical fixes (i.e., the hardware) in the success \r\nof using information and communication technology for delivering SP \r\nprogrammes (ADB, 2016). By 2050, climate-induced migration will \r\nlikely be a major policy aspect of the rural-urban nexus as slow-onset \r\nimpacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin \r\nAmerica will likely force over 143  million people to migrate within \r\ntheir national borders (Kumari Rigaud, 2018)"


id: 4e49f8e6cf568d43c80d79493a0f23e5
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" This will have major \r\nimplications for SP systems, and therefore national SP strategies should \r\nbe designed to anticipate and address climate-induced internal mobility \r\n(Schwan and Yu, 2017). For instance, it does not offer a solution for \r\nmaintaining Indigenous cultures which are often strongly affected by, \r\nor even disrupted by, climate change (Olsson, 2014). Hence, an effective \r\napproach needs to combine different policy instruments to support \r\nprotection, adaptation and migration (O'Brien et al., 2018)."


id: 6a4c05f3c78a8d395b345a5a3a187ba5
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"The need to develop tailored climate communication and education \r\nstrategies for individual nations as public awareness and risk \r\nperceptions towards climate change vary greatly (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Lee et al., 2015a). Improving on, and investing in, \r\nbasic education, climate literacy and location-based strategies of \r\nclimate change are vital to enhance public engagement, societies' \r\nadaptive capacity and support for climate action (Lutz et al., 2014c; \r\nHu and Chen, 2016). As stated in the IPCC Special Report 1.5degC, \r\nsustainable development has the potential to significantly reduce \r\nsystemic vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity and promote \r\nlivelihood security for poor and disadvantaged populations (Roy et al., \r\n2018). Hence, various concepts are introduced to foster awareness, \r\nunderstanding, knowledge, participation as well as commitment \r\ntowards managing climate change in a sustainable manner"


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content:
" One such \r\nconcept is education for sustainable development (ESD), which is aimed \r\nat integrating the principles and practices of sustainable development \r\nin all aspects of education, and training individuals who will contribute \r\nto the realisation of a more sustainable society (Kitamura, 2017)."


id: 363b8ed6396ba9904166550bca8860c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Government SP can attenuate the negative impacts in facing disasters, \r\ndepending on the differences in political systems and the focus put \r\non sociopolitical measures (medium evidence, medium agreement), \r\nnot only in restoring livelihoods but also in easing mental burdens \r\nfaced by rural households in developing countries (Dalton et al., 2016; \r\nKosec and Mo, 2017; Liebenehm, 2018). However, limited government \r\ncapacities and fiscal feasibility may impede the expansion and effective \r\nimplementation of SP as developing countries need further support to \r\ndesign, adjust and implement SP schemes effectively (Klonner, 2014; \r\nSchwan and Yu, 2017). Most countries have comprehensive strategies \r\nfor both SP and climate change, but few have attempted to align them, \r\nas in practice they remain in separate institutional homes, governed \r\nby their own intra-sector coordination groups and funding channels \r\n(Steinbach et  al., 2016; Bank, 2018b)"


id: c440ccef2e552a595e110306344e88ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Thus, significant knowledge \r\ngaps remain in terms of understanding the potential of SP to build \r\nlong-term resilience to climate change (Ulrichs et  al., 2019). Future \r\nefforts should be geared to develop climate-responsive SP policies that \r\nconsider a broad range of issues including urbanisation and migration, \r\nthe impact of green policies on the poor, access to essential health care \r\nand risks to socially marginalised groups (Aleksandrova, 2019). Along \r\nwith strengthening links to climate information and EWS, finance for \r\nenabling SP systems to address climate-related shocks and stresses \r\ndynamically needs to be scaled up (Kuriakose et al., 2013; Ulrichs et al., \r\n2019)."


id: b17cdcecded8b5518b337e850b7681e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Climate-change education (CCE) is also now addressed in the \r\ncontext of ESD and allows for learners to understand the causes and \r\nconsequences of climate change, and teaches them how to take action \r\n(Mochizuki and Bryan, 2015). Both ESD and CCE are gaining broader \r\nattention, for instance, in China (Han, 2015) and the Republic of Korea \r\n(Sung, 2015); however, development of policies and implementation \r\nof initiatives regarding ESD and CCE still face a handful of challenges \r\nwhich require a strong political will and consensus of key stakeholders \r\n(Laessoe and Mochizuki, 2015). Effective communication on CCE \r\nparticularly for younger-generation engagement is also essential, as \r\nthey are our future leaders as climate change is an inter-generational \r\nequity issue (Corner et al., 2015)"


id: 751905e9790e56894e87e5768e70602a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Action for Climate Empowerment of \r\nArticle 6 of the UNFCCC target youth as a major group for effective \r\nengagement in the formulation and implementation of decisions on \r\nclimate change (UNFCCC, 2015). Increasing attention from countries \r\nin Asia, such as Thailand and India, will encourage innovative ways \r\nto provide adequately in educating and engaging youth in climate\u0002change issues (Narksompong and Limjirakan, 2015; Dur and Keller, \r\n2018)."


id: ac7c4925c7f0e1d56ca46337b5892eb2
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"most vulnerable group to climate change (Magni, 2017). Second, they \r\nhave a specialised ecological and traditional knowledge relevant to \r\nfinding the best solutions to climate change (Rautela and Karki, 2015). \r\nIndigenous knowledge systems and resource management practices \r\nare important tools for both mitigating and adapting to climate \r\nchange (Fernandez-Llamazares et al., 2015). Indigenous knowledge is \r\nincreasingly recognised as a powerful tool for compiling evidence of \r\nclimate change over time (Ahmed et al., 2016a). Knowledge of CCA \r\nand DRR provide a range of complementary approaches in building \r\nresilience and reducing the vulnerability of natural and human systems \r\nto the impacts of climate change and environmental hazards (Mall \r\net al., 2019). The adaptation dimension involves developing knowledge \r\nand utilising existing IKLK, skills and dispositions to better cope with \r\nalready evident and looming climate impacts (Aghaei et al., 2018)"


id: a0639530f30744421c08e3cf4291184f
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" It \r\nis also important to ensure inclusive efforts in DRR across different \r\nnations and communities as well as increasing skills and capacities of \r\nwomen towards DRR efforts (Alam and Rahman, 2014; Drolet et al., \r\n2015; Islam et  al., 2016b; Reyes and Lu, 2016; Hemachandra et  al., \r\n2018). More effective and efficient teaching and learning strategies, as \r\nwell as collaborative networks, are needed to increase preparedness \r\nand DRR activities across various levels of community (Oktari et al., \r\n2015; Takahashi et  al., 2015; Tuladhar et  al., 2015b; Shiwaku et  al., \r\n2016; Gampell et al., 2017)."


id: dbe9d142896d62337d3fd250db5dc5b3
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"Capacity building at national and local levels still needs to address \r\ngaps in research and practice, such as impacts and results of different \r\npreparedness measures (Alcayna et  al., 2016). Ad-hoc and localised \r\ndocumentations and monitoring of efforts to build adaptive capacities \r\nhas rendered it difficult to assess success (Cinner et  al., 2018). \r\nRecommendations for strengthened capacity building are sometimes \r\nmade or understood in isolation from the underlying structural issues \r\nshaping vulnerability, or without adequately recognising the political \r\nrelationships that mediate the ways in which particular technical \r\ninterventions result in differentiated outcomes for different groups \r\n(Archer and Dodman, 2015)"


id: 44eb20141da5ff56919a357dba1aaa5e
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" Thus, design- and decision-based tools, \r\nsuch as rapid assessment for community resilience to climate change \r\nas well as rapid approach to monitor the effectiveness of aid projects, \r\nsupport the community-based adaptation to climate change to analyse \r\nusing a multi-dimensional approach, procedural, distributional, rights \r\nand responsibilities (Nkoana et al., 2018; Jacobson et al., 2019)."


id: eed7c9b626e6f6a634686576f586fc58
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"Risk assessments have been undertaken for different hazards such as \r\nflood (Al Saud, 2015; Al-Amin et al., 2019; Jha and Gundimeda, 2019; \r\nMahmood et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019e), drought (Guo et al., 2019; \r\nMainali et al., 2019), rainfall-induced landslide (Li et al., 2019b), SLR \r\n(Imaduddina and Subagyo, 2014; Suroso and Firman, 2018) and heat \r\nstress (Onosuka et al., 2019), among others, as well as environmental \r\nassessment, for example, in coastal zones (Islam and Zhang, 2019). \r\nDifferent types of strategies for climate risk management have also \r\nbeen studied including: (a) in situ adaptation through ecosystem- and \r\ncommunity-based adaptation (Jamero et al., 2017); (b) managed retreat \r\nor relocation (Buchori et al., 2018; Doberstein et al., 2020); (c) planned \r\nsheltering in flood zones (Wu et al., 2019c); (d) sustainable livelihoods \r\nthat consider long-term CCA measures of farmers and fishermen \r\n(Nizami et  al., 2019; Shaffril et  al"


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", 2019); (e) coastal afforestation \r\nthrough mangrove plantation (Rahman et al., 2018); (f) management \r\nof ecosystem services to mitigate the effects of droughts (Tran and \r\nBrown, 2019); (g) pre-investments, including holistic assessment of the \r\nbasin (Inaoka et al., 2019); (h) institutionalisation, where entry points \r\nare identified in efforts to build resilience (Lassa, 2019) and adaptive \r\ngovernance (Walch, 2019); and (i) linking science and local knowledge \r\n(Mehta et al., 2019; van Gevelt et al., 2019)."


id: 76edc6d80373732bfa24c4b9b5d9fa27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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content:
"There is growing evidence on the interconnectedness of extreme \r\nweather, climate change and disaster impacts (Asia, 2017; Reyer, \r\n2017). In Asia, climate-related disasters have become more recurrent \r\nand destructive in terms of both economic and social impacts (Bhatt \r\net al., 2015; Aich et al., 2017; Vij et al., 2017). Projections of increasing \r\nfrequency, intensity and severity of climate-related disasters call for \r\nbetter integration of CCA and DRR (Sapountzaki, 2018) in policy \r\ndevelopment to address risks efficiently (Rahman et al., 2018) and to \r\npromote sustainable development pathways for reduced vulnerability \r\nand increased resilience (Seidler et  al., 2018). Connecting CCA and \r\nDRR efforts in both policy and practice continue to be a challenge, \r\nhowever, because the convergence of national policy and planning \r\nprocesses on CCA and DRR within Asia is in its early stages (Cousins, \r\n2014) and structural barriers persist (Mall et  al., 2019)"


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" Both CCA \r\nand DRR have developed as separate policy domains because of the \r\ndifferent temporal and spatial scales considered, the diversity of actors \r\ninvolved, the policies and institutional frameworks adopted and the \r\ndifferences in tools and methodological approaches used. This has \r\nresulted in the CCA and DRR communities, and the knowledge and \r\nresearch they produce to support planning and decision making, not \r\nalways being well connected (Street et al., 2019)."


id: c24fe3b4ef5ffb116e3089ff8b35495b
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"The sectors to which CCA and DRR have been linked are varied. For \r\nexample, Filho et al. (2019) assessed adaptive capacity and resilience to \r\nclimate change based on urban poverty, infrastructure and community \r\nfacilities; Mabon et  al. (2019) looked at adaptation via the built \r\nenvironment, green roofs, and citizen and private-sector involvement \r\nin smaller-scale greening actions; Lama and Becker (2019) focused on \r\nadaptation to reduce risk in conflicts; Banwell et al. (2018) studied the \r\nlink between health, CCA and DRR; and Izumi et al. (2019) surveyed \r\nscience, technology and innovation for DRR. Vulnerable groups have \r\nbeen given much attention, such as farmers (Afroz, 2017; Gupta \r\net al., 2019; Jawid and Khadjavi, 2019; Khanal et al., 2019; Shi et al., \r\n2019a), women (Goodrich et al., 2019; Hossain et al., 2019; Udas et al., \r\n2019), and children, elderly and refugees (Asia, 2017). Finally, issues \r\nidentified include water resource management (Bhatta et al"


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", 2019; Sen \r\net al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019a); food security (Aleksandrova et al., \r\n2016; Le, 2016); disaster governance (Blanco, 2015); climate boundary \r\nshifting wherein impacts of climate change are significant for crop \r\nproduction, soil management and DRR (Talchabhadel and Karki, 2019); \r\nand institutional dimensions of CCA (Cuevas, 2018; Islam et al., 2020)."


id: e26a13d019bd075240e693031d4b3cd0
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"Case studies on climate risk management and integrated CCA and \r\nDRR actions highlight some key lessons including: an integrated \r\nand transformative approach to CCA, which focuses on long-term \r\nchanges in addressing climate impacts (Filho et al., 2019); adoption \r\nof an adaptive flood risk management framework incorporating \r\nboth risk observation and public perceptions (Al-Amin et  al., 2019); \r\na holistic approach and non-structural and technological measures \r\nin flood control management (Chan, 2014); monitoring of changes in \r\nurban surface water in relation to changes in seasons, land covers, \r\nanthropogenic activities and topographic characteristics for managing \r\nwatersheds and urban planning (Faridatul et  al., 2019); removing \r\n'gender blindness' in agrobiodiversity conservation and adaptation \r\npolicies (Ravera et al., 2019); understanding uncertainties in CCA and \r\nDRR at the local level (van der Keur et al"


id: e9775fe187e3405231130c08a7f4fcaf
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"Several studies also have identified enabling conditions to effectively \r\nimplement CCA and DRR actions. In the Arab region of Asia (ARA), \r\nthe following are critical: capacity building to develop knowledge and \r\nawareness; mainstreaming CCA and DRR in the national strategies \r\nand policies (e.g., water and environmental strategies); empowering \r\nthe role of CCA and DRR actors, notably women and rural societies; \r\nadopting lessons learned from regions with physical characteristics \r\nsimilar to those of ARA; establishing forecasting and prediction \r\nplatforms that are supported by advanced monitoring technologies \r\n(e.g., remote sensing); and encouraging universities and research \r\ncentres to develop studies on CCA and DRR. In Southeast Asia, laws \r\nand policies, institutional and financial arrangements, risk assessment, \r\ncapacity building, and planning and implementation are entry points in \r\nintegrating CCA and DRR (Lassa and Sembiring, 2017; Agency, 2018)"


id: 17782b34ed9bf6e1bd9c90c7d5bed503
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" \r\nAccording to Cutter et  al. (2015), holistic solutions and integrated \r\napproaches, rigorous risk research that shows coherent science-based \r\nassessment and knowledge transfer from research to practice, and \r\naligned targets on disaster risk management, climate change and \r\nsustainable development targets, are critical. Social capital and SP \r\nmeasures could promote pro-poor and gender-responsive adaptation \r\nas well as socially inclusive policies (Dilshad et al., 2019; Yari et al., \r\n2019). Community-based approaches could allow local perceptions of \r\nclimate change and experience of place to be included in planning \r\n(Dujardin et  al., 2018; Dwirahmadi et  al., 2019; Widiati and Irianto, \r\n2019), and multi-stakeholder participation could engage various \r\nactors such as the private sector in CCA and DRR. Furthermore, multi\u0002level climate governance could benefit from vertical and horizontal \r\ninteractions at different levels and layers in the city (Zen et al., 2019)"


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" \r\nTo mainstream and secure funding commitments, CCA and DRR could \r\nbe integrated into national development plans and sectoral long-term \r\nplans (Ishiwatari and Surjan, 2020; Rahayu et  al., 2020; Rani et  al., \r\n2020b)."


id: 7948f802725a3fdfbde49e8f85c20fd4
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"Food, energy, water and land are vital elements for sustainable \r\ndevelopment as well as enhancing resilience to both climatic and non\u0002climatic shocks. All these resources are highly vulnerable to climate \r\nchange (Sections  10.3.1, 10.3.4). Poor people are most affected due \r\nto changes in resources availability and accessibility. Food, water and \r\nenergy security are interconnected (Bizikova et al., 2013; Ringler et al., \r\n2013; Rasul, 2014; Chang et al., 2016; Ringler et al., 2016). Although \r\nadapting to climate change is one of the core components of the global, \r\nregional, national and subnational agendas, the focus of adaptation \r\naction has remained sectoral. Undermining the interlinkages of food, \r\nenergy and water security may increase trade-offs between sectors or \r\nplaces, which may lead to maladaptation (Barnett and O'Neill, 2010; \r\nHowells et  al., 2013; Lele et  al., 2013)"


id: 6678eff3df27857f799d20278d840a54
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" Therefore, focusing on the \r\nnature of trade-offs and synergies across the food-water-energy nexus \r\nfor integrated management of resources is a potential strategy for \r\nadaptation to both climatic and non-climatic challenges (Bhaduri et al., \r\n2015; Zaman et al., 2017). Due to its importance to the Paris Agreement \r\nand SDGs, the food-water-energy nexus approach has gotten \r\nincreasing attention in terms of capturing synergies and minimising \r\ntrade-offs in this interconnected system, which is also critical for \r\nenhancing adaptation together (Bazilian et  al., 2011; Lawford et  al., \r\n2013; UNESCAP, 2013; FAO, 2014; Rasul and Sharma, 2014; Taniguchi \r\net al., 2017a; Sukhwani et al., 2019; Sukhwani et al., 2020)."


id: c4d25939dde8458a4ea6c338249d1190
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"The food-water-energy nexus can be evaluated in the two-way \r\ninteractions between water-food, water-energy and food-energy \r\n(Taniguchi et  al., 2017a). The water-energy nexus includes water \r\nfor energy and energy for water (Rothausen and Conway, 2011; \r\nHussey and Pittock, 2012; Byers et al., 2014), the water-food nexus \r\nincludes water for food and the impact of food production on water \r\n(Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012) and the energy-food nexus includes \r\nenergy consumption for food production and food crops for biofuel \r\nproduction (Tilman et al., 2009). The food-water-energy-land nexus \r\nhas diverse implications at the sub-regional level in Asia. The increase \r\nin the water-supply gap raises questions about the sustainability of \r\nthe main mode of electricity generation in South Asia. Thermal power \r\ngeneration and hydropower generation are both threatened by water \r\nshortages in South Asia (Luo, 2018b; Mitra et al., 2021)"


id: 3aa1f5854ded7848e327fded1a566ec6
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" Furthermore, \r\npolicy-mismatch-driven anthropogenic causes lead to unsustainable \r\nwater use for food production in India. For example, subsidised \r\nelectricity supply for watering agriculture plays a key role in losing \r\ngroundwater's buffer capacity against the various changes including \r\nclimate variabilities (Badiani et al., 2012; Mitra, 2017). In the Mekong \r\nRiver basin of Southeast Asia, massive and rapid export-oriented "


id: 489325bc960a31ea9254e0816a4b5f26
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Adaptation follows knowledge on risks, and literature exists that \r\nsystematically identifies and characterises exposure and vulnerability, \r\nbut gaps still exist. Decision making under uncertainty is challenged by \r\nthe lack of data for adapting to current and uncertain future climate, \r\nthe different perceptions of risk, and the potential solutions across \r\ndifferent cultures and languages (van der Keur et  al., 2016). Lack of \r\ndownscaled climatic data, diverse institutional structures, and missing \r\nlinks in policies, are among the challenges in South Asia (Mall et al., \r\n2019). In agriculture, there are gaps in the use of advanced farming \r\ntechniques such as drought-resistant crops, and information on climate \r\nchange to support farming households in making adaptation decisions \r\n(Akhtar et  al., 2019; Khanal et  al., 2019; Ullah et  al., 2019)"


id: 254f9dc8a960d0b7f88d4bfa8a569551
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" Better \r\nunderstanding of effective water management is crucial due to conflicts \r\nfor shared water in ARA (Shaban and Hamze, 2017; UNDP, 2018). For \r\ndelta regions, gaps identified are methodologies and approaches \r\nappropriate for understanding social vulnerability at various scales, \r\npathways required for adaptation policy and response in the deltas that \r\ntranscend development, and the lessons from implemented policy and "


id: 3627f7e4ae28c2a9cfd6a615ac471dd8
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content:
"such approaches in order to respond to the climate-change challenge \r\nin a socially just manner (Mayrhofer and Gupta, 2016). These non\u0002conflicting aims are described as co-benefits as reiterated in the \r\nIPCC reports as a central concept that refers to 'the positive effects \r\nthat a policy or measure aimed at one objective might have on other \r\nobjectives, irrespective of the net effect on overall social welfare' \r\n(IPCC, 2014b). Better understanding of how social justice affects, \r\nand is affected by, efforts to build adaptive capacity will be crucial \r\nto avoiding unintended, and even perverse, outcomes. For example, \r\non the Andaman coast of Thailand, responses to climate-change \r\ntrends and events tended to be reactive rather than proactive, making \r\nalready vulnerable people even more vulnerable and undermining \r\ntheir capacity to adapt in the future (Bennett et al., 2014)"


id: e713325119451c9f28355aca0f266e95
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content:
" Different \r\nforms of inequality, moreover, render some groups more vulnerable \r\nthan others to damage from climate hazards. In Mumbai, India, for \r\nexample, the houses of poorer families required repeated repairs to \r\nsecure them against flood damage, and the cumulative cost of those \r\nrepairs consumed a greater proportion of their income than for richer \r\npopulations (UN, 2016). Building the resilience of vulnerable groups \r\nrequires strong community and government institutions that can \r\nsupport efforts to cope with devastating events, offering SP and social \r\ndevelopment initiatives to support at-risk or vulnerable groups (Drolet \r\net al., 2015). In addition, agencies need to consider how they can best \r\nwork in ways which potentially support longer-term positive change \r\nto gender roles and relations"


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" For example, post-disaster activities \r\nmust build and resource women's resilience and adaptive capacity \r\nin practice and challenge the constraints that impinge on their lives \r\n(Sadia et al., 2016; Sohrabizadeh et al., 2016; Hadiyanto et al., 2018; \r\nYumarni and Amaratunga, 2018; Alam and Rahman, 2019)."


id: e8e6fb46d3cb0c5d529e7dee0f6d54da
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content:
"Many challenges remain in both scientific research and policy \r\nactions at the global, regional, national and subnational levels. The \r\nscientific challenges include data, information and knowledge gaps \r\nin understanding the food, energy, water and land interlinkages, \r\nand lack of systematic tools to address trade-offs (Liu et al., 2017a). \r\nUntil very recently, implementation of the food-energy-water nexus \r\nfocused primarily on technical solutions, whereas governance (i.e., the \r\ninstitutions and processes governing the food-energy-water nexus) \r\nhas not received much consideration (Scheyvens and Shivakoti, 2019)"


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content:
" \r\nAt the policy end, the common challenges for implementation of the \r\nwater-energy-food-land nexus are absence of sectoral coordination \r\n(Pahl-Wostl, 2019), the influence of political priorities on decisions and \r\nlack of processes for scientific knowledge to shape decisions, lack of \r\ncapacity to understand interlinkages between sectors, lack of multi\u0002stakeholder engagement in planning and decision-making processes, \r\nand lack of incentive mechanisms and adequate finance to support the \r\napproach (Bao et al., 2018; Scheyvens and Shivakoti, 2019)."


id: 722649d040b97c4236b534c0cb5428b1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Social justice focuses on the justice-related implications of social and \r\neconomic institutions, examined in different ways such as distributional \r\njustice (distribution of benefits and burdens across different societal \r\ngroups), procedural justice (the design of just institutions and processes \r\nfor decision making), inter-generational justice (duties of justice to \r\nfuture generations) and recognitional justice (recognition of historical \r\ninequality) (Thaler et  al., 2017). Climate change is affecting every \r\naspect of our society and economy; thus, it is pertinent to understand \r\nthe interactions between social justice and climate-change impacts \r\n(Tol, 2018), in particular, focusing on how vulnerability to various \r\nimpacts is created, maintained and distributed across geographic, \r\nsocial, demographic and economic dimensions (Bulkeley et al., 2014; \r\nSchlosberg and Collins, 2014; Van de Vliert, 2014; Burke et al., 2016)"


id: 4a3400261db21dbddcca31011c5061de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" \r\nFor instance, environmental and health consequences of climate \r\nchange, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and \r\npoor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights \r\nand social justice (Levy and Patz, 2015). Furthermore, great concern is \r\nexpressed about the plight of the poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable \r\npopulations when it comes to climate, but not in other policy domains \r\n(Winters, 2014)."


id: d1f5ca1714fbc61c1875347c657db2f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Climatologically, the summer surface air temperature in South, Southeast and Southwest Asia is high, and its coastal \r\narea is very humid. In these regions, heat stress is already a medium risk for humans. Large cities are warmer by more \r\nthan 2degC compared with the surroundings due to heat island effects, exacerbating heat stress conditions. Future \r\nwarming will cause more frequent temperature extremes and heatwaves especially in densely populated South \r\nAsian cities, where working conditions will be exacerbated and daytime outdoor work will become dangerous. For \r\nexample, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in 51 cities in China is estimated to reach 37,800 deaths per year \r\nover a 20-year period in the mid-21st century (2041-2060) under the RCP8.5 scenario.\r\nAsian glaciers are the water resources for local and adjacent regions"


id: c8e9e36b97dbe10fd76406809ea61bed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Glaciers are decreasing in Central, Southwest, \r\nSoutheast and North Asia, but are stable or increased in some parts of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region. The glacier \r\nmelt water in the southern Tibetan Plateau increased during 1998-2007, and the total amount and area of glacier \r\nlakes has increased during recent decades. In the future, maximum glacial runoff is projected in High Mountain \r\nAsia. Glacier collapses and surges, together with glacier lake outburst flood due to the expansion of glacier lakes, \r\nwill threaten the securities of the local and down streaming societies.\r\nWith much of the Asian population living in drought-prone areas, water scarcity is a prevailing risk across Asia \r\nthrough water and food shortage leading to malnutrition. Populations vulnerable to impacts related to water are \r\ngoing to increase progressively at 1.5degC, 2degC and 3degC of global warming. Aggravating drought condition is projected \r\nin Central Asia"


id: e71bacca51db45bdd74cf6d60cebe6f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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"Currently and in the future, Asia is identified as one of regions most vulnerable to climate change, especially \r\non extreme heat, flooding, sea level rise and erratic rainfall. All these climatic risks, when overlaid on existing \r\ndevelopment deficits, show us that incremental adaptation will not be enough; transformational change is \r\nrequired. Recognising this, at subnational and national levels, government and non-governmental actors are also \r\nprioritising planned adaptation strategies which include interventions like 'climate-smart agriculture' as seen in South \r\nand Southeast Asian countries, or changing labour laws to reduce exposure to heat as seen in West Asia. These are \r\noften sectoral priorities governments lay out through national or subnational policies and projects, drawing on \r\nvarious sources of funding: domestic, bilateral and international"


id: 14e6498f53b3e9bc12281cb00188137b
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" Apart from these planned adaptation strategies in \r\nsocial systems, Asian countries also report and invest in adaptation measures in natural systems such as expanding \r\nnature reserves to enable species conservation or setting up habitat corridors to facilitate landscape connectivity \r\nand species movements across climatic gradients."


id: 7f23208045862b2d24b9a0e2920d5d9e
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"Some examples of innovative adaptation actions are China's 'Sponge Cities' which are trying to protect ecosystems \r\nwhile reducing risk for people, now and in the future. Another example is India's Heat Action Plans that are using \r\n'cool roofs' technologies and awareness-building campaigns to reduce the impacts of extreme heat. Across South \r\nand Southeast Asia, climate-smart agriculture programmes are reducing GHG emissions associated with farming \r\nwhile helping farmers adapt to changing risks. Each country is experimenting with infrastructural, nature-based, \r\ntechnological, institutional and behavioural strategies to adapt to current and future climate change with local \r\ncontexts shaping both the possibility of undertaking such actions as well as the effectiveness of these actions to \r\nreduce risk"


id: 755a2cd008c09e2871ccf6bf941d467b
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" What works for ageing cities in Japan exposed to heatwaves and floods may not work for pastoral \r\ncommunities in the highlands of Central Asia, but there is progress on understanding what actions work and for \r\nwhom. The challenge is to scale current adaptation action, especially in the most exposed areas and for the most \r\nvulnerable populations, as well as move beyond adapting to single risks alone (i.e., adapt to multiple coinciding \r\nrisks such as flooding and water scarcity in coastal cities across South Asia or extreme heat and flash floods in \r\nWest Asia). In this context, funding and implementing adaptation is essential, and while Asian countries are \r\nexperimenting with a range of autonomous and planned adaptation actions to deal with these multiple and often \r\nconcurrent challenges, making current development pathways climate resilient is necessary and, some might argue, \r\nunavoidable."


id: 7f80fa5ed8a0d607c18c041b0586e74a
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"In order to achieve the multiple goals of CCA, mitigation and sustainable development, critical are rapid, system \r\ntransitions across (a) energy systems, (b) land and ecosystems and (c) urban and infrastructural systems. This is \r\nespecially important across Asia, which has the largest population exposed to current climate risks and high \r\nsub-regional diversity, and where risks are expected to rise significantly and unevenly under higher levels of global \r\nwarming. However, such transformational change is deeply challenging because of variable national development \r\nimperatives; differing capacities and requirements of large, highly unequal and vulnerable populations; and \r\nsocioeconomic and ecological diversity that requires very contextual solutions"


id: d0c87af158bcc6f3f6c49ad40ab385d2
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" Furthermore, issues such as growing \r\ntransboundary risks, inadequate data for long-term adaptation planning, finance barriers, uneven institutional \r\ncapacity and non-climatic issues, such as increasing conflict, political instability and polarization, constrain rapid, \r\ntransformational action across systems."


id: c8bdef79f0cfec0c06a302f9071ff8ff
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"Ongoing climate trends have exacerbated many extreme \r\nevents (very high confidence). The Australian trends include further \r\nwarming and sea level rise sea level rise (SLR), with more hot days and \r\nheatwaves, less snow, more rainfall in the north, less April-October \r\nrainfall in the southwest and southeast and more extreme fire weather \r\ndays in the south and east. The New Zealand trends include further \r\nwarming and sea level rise (SLR), more hot days and heatwaves, less \r\nsnow, more rainfall in the south, less rainfall in the north and more \r\nextreme fire weather in the east. There have been fewer tropical \r\ncyclones and cold days in the region"


id: fc49086d1f6b319d806fd5c87ddcdc3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" Extreme events include Australia's \r\nhottest and driest year in 2019 with a record-breaking number of days \r\nover 39degC, New Zealand's hottest year in 2016, three widespread \r\nmarine heatwaves during 2016-2020, Category 4 Cyclone Debbie in \r\n2017, seven major hailstorms over eastern Australia and two over New \r\nZealand from 2014-2020, three major floods in eastern Australia and \r\nthree over New Zealand during 2019-2021 and major fires in southern \r\nand eastern Australia during 2019-2020. {11.2.1, Table 11.2, 11.3.8}"


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"Climate trends and extreme events have combined with exposure \r\nand vulnerabilities to cause major impacts for many natural \r\nsystems, with some experiencing or at risk of irreversible change \r\nin Australia (very high confidence) and in New Zealand (high \r\nconfidence). For example, warmer conditions with more heatwaves, \r\ndroughts and catastrophic wildfires have negatively impacted terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystems. The Bramble Cay melomys, an endemic \r\nmammal species, became extinct due to loss of habitat associated with \r\nsea level rise (SLR) and storm surges in the Torres Strait. Marine species \r\nabundance and distributions have shifted polewards, and extensive \r\ncoral bleaching events and loss of temperate kelp forests have occurred \r\ndue to ocean warming and marine heatwaves across the region"


id: 34b5f19ed3c510a4da16144855a1c29f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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" In New \r\nZealand's southern Alps, from 1978 to 2016, the area of 14 glaciers \r\ndeclined 21%, and extreme glacier mass loss was at least 6 times more \r\nlikely in 2011 and 10 times more likely in 2018 due to climate change. \r\nThe end-of-summer snowline elevation for 50 glaciers rose 300 m from \r\n1949 to 2019. {11.3.1.1, 11.3.2.1, Table 11.2b, Table 11.4, Table 11.6, \r\nTable 11.9}"


id: 84beb8ef0046b3ce6290da25d55ee6fa
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"Further climate change is inevitable, with the rate and \r\nmagnitude largely dependent on the emission pathway (very \r\nhigh confidence1\r\n). Ongoing warming is projected, with more hot \r\ndays and fewer cold days (very high confidence). Further sea level rise \r\n(SLR), ocean warming and ocean acidification are projected (very high \r\nconfidence). Less winter and spring rainfall is projected in southern \r\nAustralia, with more winter rainfall in Tasmania, less autumn rainfall \r\nin southwestern Victoria and less summer rainfall in western Tasmania \r\n(medium confidence), with uncertain rainfall changes in northern \r\nAustralia. In New Zealand, more winter and spring rainfall is projected \r\nin the west and less in the east and north, with more summer rainfall \r\nin the east and less in the west and central North Island (medium \r\nconfidence). In New Zealand, ongoing glacier retreat is projected (very \r\nhigh confidence)"


id: c30326df7f7bd2d93db9490691b1a312
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" More extreme fire weather is projected in southern and \r\neastern Australia (high confidence) and over northern and eastern New \r\nZealand (medium confidence). Increased drought frequency is projected \r\nfor southern and eastern Australia and northern New Zealand (medium \r\nconfidence). Increased heavy rainfall intensity is projected, with fewer \r\ntropical cyclones and a greater proportion of severe cyclones (medium \r\nconfidence). {11.2.2, Table 11.3, Box 11.6}"


id: 69fe64ed33f04300eb43d540a33ce445
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"Changes to the composition and location of different demographic \r\ngroups in the region contribute to increased exposure or vulnerability \r\nto climate change (medium confidence). Australia's population reached \r\n25 million in 2018 and is projected to grow to 37.4-49.2 million by 2066, \r\nwith most growth in major cities (accounting for 81% of Australia's \r\npopulation growth from 2016 to 2017) (ABS, 2018), although COVID-19 \r\nis expected to slow the growth rate (CoA, 2020c). The highest growth \r\nrates outside of major cities occurred mostly in coastal regions (ABS, \r\n2017), which have built assets exposed to sea level rise (SLR). New \r\nZealand's population was 5.1 million at the end of 2020 and is projected \r\nto increase to 6.0-6.5 million by 2068, assuming no marked changes \r\nin migration patterns (Stats NZ, 2016; Stats NZ, 2021)"


id: d3d0d3f977a4841cb8d37acb0b693d49
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" Although the \r\npopulation densities of both countries are much lower than other OECD \r\ncountries, they are highly urbanised with over 86% living in urban \r\nareas in both countries (Productivity Commission, 2017; World Bank, \r\n2018). This proportion is projected to increase to over 90% by 2050 (UN \r\nDESA, 2019) mostly in coastal areas (Rouse et al., 2017). Consideration \r\nof climate change impacts when planning and managing such growth \r\nand associated infrastructure could help avoid new vulnerabilities being \r\ncreated, particularly from wildfires, sea level rise (SLR), heat stress and \r\nflooding."


id: 59fc3adf8f725bd0cb09117d785fa43e
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"Widespread and severe impacts on ecosystems and species are \r\nnow evident across the region (very high confidence) (Table  11.4). \r\nClimate impacts reflect both ongoing change and discrete extreme \r\nweather events (Harris et  al., 2018), and the climatic change signal \r\nis emerging despite confounding influences (Hoffmann et al., 2019). \r\nFundamental shifts are observed in the structure and composition \r\nof some ecosystems and associated services (Table  11.4). Impacts \r\ndocumented for species include global and local extinctions, severe \r\nregional population declines and phenotypic responses (Table 11.4). In \r\nterrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, land use impacts are interacting \r\nwith climate, resulting in significant changes to ecosystem structure, \r\ncomposition and function (Bergstrom et  al., 2021), with some \r\nlandscapes experiencing catastrophic impacts (Table  11.4)"


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" Some of \r\nthe observed changes may be irreversible where projected impacts \r\non ecosystems and species persist (Table 11.5). Of note is the global \r\nextinction of an endemic mammal species, the Bramble Cay melomys \r\n(Melomys rubicola), from the loss of habitat attributable in part to sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) and storm surges in the Torres Strait (Table 11.4)."


id: a136333e8841ccdf5fc3abdd0bb0d91b
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"Natural forest and woodland ecosystem processes are experiencing \r\ndiffering impacts and responses depending on the climate zone (high \r\nconfidence). In Australia, an overall increase in the forest fire danger \r\nindex, associated with warming and drying trends (Table  11.2a), \r\nhas been observed particularly for southern and eastern Australia in \r\nrecent decades (Box  11.1). The 2019-2020 mega wildfires of south \r\neastern Australia burnt between 5.8 and 8.1 million hectares of mainly \r\ntemperate broadleaf forest and woodland, but with substantial areas of \r\nrainforest also impacted, and were unprecedented in their geographic \r\nlocation, spatial extent and forest types burnt (Boer et al., 2020; Nolan \r\net  al., 2020; Abram et  al., 2021; Collins et  al., 2021; Godfree et  al., \r\n2021). The human influence on these events is evident (Abram et al., \r\n2021; van Oldenborgh et al., 2021) (Box 11.1). The fires had significant \r\nconsequences for wildlife (Hyman et al., 2020; Nolan et al"


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", 2020; Ward \r\net al., 2020) (Box 11.1) and flow-on impacts for aquatic fauna (Silva \r\net al., 2020). In southern Australia, deeply rooted native tree species can \r\naccess soil and groundwater resources during drought, providing a level \r\nof natural resilience (Bell and Nikolaus Callow, 2020; Liu et al., 2020). \r\nHowever, the Northern Jarrah forests of south western Australia have \r\nexperienced tree mortality and dieback from long-term precipitation \r\ndecline and acute heatwave-compounded drought (Wardell-Johnson \r\net al., 2015; Matusick et al., 2018). While there is limited information \r\non observed impacts for New Zealand, increased mast seeding events \r\nin beech forest ecosystems that stimulate invasive population irruptions \r\nhave been recorded (Schauber et al., 2002; Tompkins et al., 2013)."


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"New Zealand climate projections are quantified with references in \r\nTable 11.3b. Further warming is projected, with more hot days, fewer \r\ncold days, less snow and glacial ice, ongoing sea level rise (SLR) \r\nand ocean acidification (very high confidence). Increases in winter \r\nand spring rainfall are projected in the west of the North and South \r\nIslands, with drier conditions in the east and north, caused by stronger \r\nwesterly winds (medium confidence). In summer, wetter conditions are \r\nprojected in the east of both islands, with drier conditions in the west \r\nand central North Island (medium confidence). Fire weather indices \r\nare projected to increase over northern and eastern New Zealand \r\n(medium confidence)"


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" Heavy rainfall intensity is projected to increase \r\nover most regions, with increased extreme wind speeds in eastern \r\nregions, especially in Marlborough and Canterbury, and reduced \r\nrelative humidity almost everywhere, except for the west coast in \r\nwinter (medium confidence). Drought frequency may increase in the \r\nnorth (medium confidence)."


id: 7d4ae9c13d343297810fe7e94bf08cf4
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"including population declines, heat-related mortalities, extinctions \r\nand disruptions for many species and ecosystems (high confidence) \r\n(Table  11.5). These include inadequate allocation of environmental \r\nflows for freshwater fish (Vertessy et al., 2019), native forest logging \r\nfor old-growth-forest-dependent fauna (Lindenmayer et  al., 2015; \r\nLindenmayer and Taylor, 2020a; Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020b), and \r\ninvasive species (Scott et al., 2018). Climate change has synergistic and \r\ncompounding impacts, particularly in bioregions already experiencing \r\necosystem degradation, threatened endemics and collapse of keystone \r\nspecies, including those of value to Indigenous Peoples, and high \r\nextinction rates as a consequence of human activities (Table  11.4) \r\n(Gordon, 2009; Australia SoE, 2016; Weeks et al., 2016; Cresswell and \r\nMurphy, 2017; Hare et al., 2019; MfE, 2019; Lindenmayer and Taylor, \r\n2020a; Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020b; Bergstrom et al., 2021)"


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" Some \r\nnative species are projected to have potentially greater geographic \r\nrange if they can colonise new areas, while other species may be \r\nresilient to projected climate change impacts (Bulgarella et al., 2014; \r\nK.E. Lawrence et al., 2017; Conroy et al., 2019; Rizvanovic et al., 2019)."


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"The impacts on species from projected global warming depend on their \r\nphysiological and ecological responses for which knowledge is limited \r\n(Table 11.5) (Bulgarella et al., 2014; Carter et al., 2018; Green et al., \r\n2021). Knowledge of projected impacts is constrained by uncertainties \r\nabout the influence of physiological limits, barriers to dispersal, \r\ncompetition, the availability of habitat resources (Worth et al., 2014) \r\nand disruptions to ecological interactions (Lakeman-Fraser and Ewers, \r\n2013; Parida et  al., 2015; Porfirio et  al., 2016). Gaps in ecological \r\nmodelling of future climate impacts include consideration of long-term \r\nrainfall and temperature changes (Grimm-Seyfarth et al., 2017; Grimm\u0002Seyfarth et al., 2018), species dispersal rates, evolutionary capacity and \r\nphenotypic plasticity and the thresholds at which they are considered \r\nadequate to counter the impacts of climate change (Ofori et al"


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", 2017b), \r\nas well as indirect effects including sea level rise (SLR) and altered fire \r\nregimes (Shoo et al., 2014; Cadenhead et al., 2016; He et al., 2016)."


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"Adaptation planning for ecosystems and species requires monitoring \r\nand evaluation to identify trigger points and thresholds for new actions \r\nto be implemented (high confidence) (Tanner-McAllister et al., 2017; \r\nWilliams et al., 2020). Best planning practice includes keeping options \r\nopen (Barnett et al., 2015; Dunlop et al., 2016; Finlayson et al., 2017) \r\nand updating management plans in light of new information. New \r\ninsights are emerging into how species' natural adaptive capacities \r\ncan inform adaptation planning (Llewelyn et al., 2016; Steane et al., \r\n2017; Hoeppner and Hughes, 2019). Physiological limits to adaptation \r\nin some species are being identified (Barnett et  al., 2015; Sorensen \r\net al., 2016), and where natural responses are not feasible, human\u0002assisted translocations may be warranted (Becker et  al., 2013; \r\nChauvenet et  al., 2013; Innes et  al., 2019) for some species (Ofori \r\net al., 2017a; Ofori et al., 2017b)"


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" Legal reform may be needed to better \r\nenable climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation that recognises \r\nspecies' natural adjustments to their distributions and the difficulties \r\nencountered in predicting the consequences for ecological interactions \r\nand ecosystem services (McCormack, 2018; McDonald et al., 2019)."


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"Fire weather is projected to increase in frequency, severity and duration for southern and eastern Australia (high confidence) and most of \r\nNew Zealand (medium confidence) (11.2.2), with projected increases in pyro-convection risk for parts of southern Australia (Dowdy et al., \r\n2019) and increased dry-lightning and fire ignition for southeast Australia (Mariani et al., 2019; Dowdy, 2020). Increased fire risk in spring \r\nmay reduce opportunities for prescribed fuel-reduction burning in some regions (Harris and Lucas, 2019; Di Virgilio et al., 2020). Fuel \r\ndryness is a key constraint on wildfire occurrence (Ruthrof et al., 2016). Vegetation change will affect fuel load and fire risk in different \r\nareas in complex ways (Watt et al., 2019; Alexandra and Max Finlayson, 2020; Clarke et al., 2020; Sanderson and Fisher, 2020)"


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"\r\nDirect effects of wildfire include death and injury to people and animals and damage to ecosystems, property, agriculture, water supplies \r\nand other infrastructure (Brodison, 2013; Pearce, 2018; de Jesus et al., 2020; Johnston et al., 2020; Maybery et al., 2020). Indirect effects \r\ninclude electricity and communication blackouts leading to cascading impacts on services, infrastructure and communities (Bowman, \r\n2012; Schavemaker and van der Sluis, 2017)."


id: bb2a5c240f0ecfdc5989826b3fd6ae37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 26988
content:
"The Australian wildfires of 2019-2020 resulted in 33 deaths, over 3000 houses destroyed, AUD$2.3  billion in insured losses and \r\nAUD$3.6 billion in losses for tourism, hospitality, agriculture and forestry (CoA, 2020e; Filkov et al., 2020) (Figure Box 11.1.2). Smoke caused \r\na further 429 deaths and 3230 hospitalisations as a result of respiratory distress and illness, with health costs totalling AUD$1.95 billion \r\n(Johnston et al., 2020). These fires burnt about 5.8 to 8.1 million hectares of forest in eastern Australia (Ward et al., 2020; Godfree et al., \r\n2021), resulting in the loss or displacement of nearly 3 billion vertebrate animals (CoA, 2020e; Wintle et al., 2020). Further, 114 listed \r\nthreatened species lost at least 50% of their habitat, and 49 lost 80% (Wintle et al., 2020), among other severe ecological impacts \r\n(Hyman et al., 2020)"


id: 1fa550807ebbd7a8aed8f8058a61ecbf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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vector_id: 2412
content:
" Smoke carried over 4000 km to New Zealand, where it increased snow/glacier melt through darkening surfaces \r\nand produced a detectable odour (Pu et al. 2021;(Filkov et al., 2020). The fire season of 2019-2020 was at least 30% more likely than \r\na century ago due to the influence of climate change (van Oldenborgh et  al., 2021). Following the fires, a Royal Commission into \r\nNational Natural Disaster Arrangements made 80 recommendations, most of which were accepted by government, including establishing \r\na disaster advisory body and a resilience and recovery agency (11.5.2.3) (CoA, 2020e)."


id: 56f8edf1739b7cd0b5349878dfd82b91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11159
content:
"In 2016 and 2017, the GBR experienced consecutive occurrences \r\nof the most severe coral bleaching in recorded history (very high \r\nconfidence) (Box 11.2), with shallow-water reef in the top two-thirds \r\nof the GBR affected and the severity of bleaching on individual reefs \r\ntightly correlated with the level of local heat exposure (Hughes et al., \r\n2018b; Hughes et al., 2019c). Mass mortality of corals from these two \r\nunprecedented events resulted in larval recruitment in 2018 declining \r\nby 89% compared to historical levels (Hughes et al., 2019b). southern \r\nreefs were also affected by warming, although significantly less than \r\nin the north (Kennedy et  al., 2018). Coral reefs in Australia are at \r\nvery high risk of continued negative effects on ecosystem structure \r\nand function (very high confidence) (Hughes et  al., 2019b), cultural \r\nwell-being (very high confidence) (Goldberg et al., 2016; Lyons et al., \r\n2019), food provision (medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al"


id: 2fe53efb6854af9340d4c8f9c94ceb78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:30
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4961
content:
", \r\n2017), coastal protection (high confidence) (Ferrario et al., 2014) and \r\ntourism (high confidence) (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017; Prideaux \r\nand Pabel, 2018; GBRMPA, 2019). If bleaching persists, an estimated \r\n10,000 jobs and AUD$1 billion in revenue would be lost per year from \r\ndeclines in tourism alone (Swann and Campbell, 2016)."


