# document

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" \r\nIn addition, higher levels of faecal contamination of drinking water \r\nand hands (i.e., lack of WaSH) has been statistically significantly \r\nassociated with increased child diarrhoea (Goddard et al., 2020)."


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"In 2020, 2 billion people lacked access to uncontaminated water, while \r\n771 million lacked basic sanitation services, primarily in sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica and rural areas (WHO and UNICEF, 2021). Even in high-income \r\ncountries, poor-quality drinking water can be a health issue (Murphy \r\net al., 2014). For example, in a sampled population in Canada, reported \r\nexposure to exposure routes for waterborne illness included 7% from \r\nprivate wells and 71.8% from municipal water (David et  al., 2014). \r\nDrinking water treatment can be compromised by degraded source \r\nwater quality and extreme weather events, including droughts, storms, \r\nice storms and wildfires that overwhelm or cause infrastructure damage \r\n(Sherpa et al., 2014; Khan et al., 2015; Howard et al., 2016; White et al., \r\n2017) (high confidence). Adverse health effects are exacerbated due to \r\nthe absence of adequate WaSH, particularly in poorer households (Khan \r\net al., 2015; Kostyla et al., 2015; Cisse et al"


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", 2016), WaSH infrastructure \r\nfailure (Khan et  al., 2015; Wanda et  al., 2017) or inadequate WaSH \r\nfacilities in emergency shelters (Alam and Rahman, 2014). For example, \r\nWaSH coverage decreased from 65% to 51% due to damage from floods \r\nand earthquakes in Malawi (Wanda et al., 2017). Loss of electricity also \r\nimpacts WaSH service delivery (Cashman, 2014), and infrastructure \r\ndamage caused by climate hazards may reverse progress on universal \r\naccess to WaSH (Kohlitz et al., 2017) (limited evidence, high agreement). \r\nIn addition, wastewater outflows have been associated with a 13% \r\nincreased relative risk of gastrointestinal illness through contaminated \r\ndrinking water sources (Jagai et  al., 2015) (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement). Harmful algal blooms represent an emerging health risk, \r\nbut lack of monitoring and reporting prevent risk exposure assessments \r\n(Carmichael and Boyer, 2016; Nichols et  al., 2018) (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)"


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" Chemical contaminants (e.g., nitrates, arsenic) have \r\nbeen linked to non-communicable diseases, including neurological \r\ndisorders, liver and kidney damage, and cancers (Jones Rena et  al., \r\n2016), and to some water-related diseases (e.g., schistosomiasis) (low \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


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"disproportionately impact women and girls. The necessity of water \r\ncollection takes away time from income-generating activities, child care \r\nand education (Yadav and Lal, 2018; Schuster et  al., 2020) (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement). Consumption of larger volumes of \r\nwater is essential for healthy women during pregnancy, lactation and \r\ncaregiving, which increases the amount of water that has to be fetched. \r\nFetching of water is associated with increased risk of sexual abuse, \r\ndemand for sexual favours at controlled water collection points, physical \r\ninjuries (e.g., musculoskeletal or from animal attacks), domestic violence \r\nfor not completing daily water-related domestic tasks (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement), and poorer maternal and child health (Mercer and \r\nHanrahan, 2017; Pommells et al., 2018; Anwar et al., 2019; Collins et al., \r\n2019a; Geere and Hunter, 2020; Venkataramanan et al., 2020) (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)"


id: edf11437b5bf19e875f77ecc9db927fc
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" Menstrual hygiene management is a public \r\nhealth issue but poorly linked to climate change, despite relationships \r\nbetween lack of adequate WaSH, poor menstrual hygiene, and urinary \r\ntract infections (Ellis et al., 2016; Pouramin et al., 2020). Water insecurity \r\nalso affects emotional, spiritual and cultural relationships that are often \r\ncritical to Indigenous health (Wilson et al., 2019) (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement)."


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"Advances in the attribution of extreme weather events have made \r\nit possible to determine the causal relationship between droughts, \r\nfloods and climate change for some cities, particularly those with \r\nlong hydro-meteorological records (Bader et  al., 2018; Otto et  al., \r\n2020). Attribution analysis shows that urbanisation contributed to the \r\nincrease in both frequencies of local and abrupt heavy rainfall events \r\nin the city, at a rate of 1.5 and 1.8 10 yr-1, respectively (Liang and \r\nDing, 2017). A multi-method attribution showed that the likelihood \r\nof prolonged rainfall deficit in Cape Town (South Africa) during \r\n2015-2017 was made more likely by a factor of 3.3 (1.4-6.4) due \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (Otto et  al., 2018). These results \r\nshow that climate change has impacted the return time of extreme \r\ndroughts in the Western Cape, exceeding the capacity of the existing \r\nwater supply system to cope (Otto et  al., 2018) (Box  9.4; 9.8.2)"


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" \r\nIn Baton Rouge (USA), a rapid attribution study showed that the \r\nprobability of an event such as the intense precipitation and flash \r\nflooding of August 2016 has increased by at least a factor of 1.4 \r\ndue to radiative forcing (USA) (van der Wiel et al., 2017). In Houston \r\n(USA), a study found that the combination of urbanisation and climate \r\nchange nearly doubled peak discharge (84%) during Hurricane Harvey \r\n(August 2017), suggesting that land use change magnified the effects \r\nof climate change on catchment response to extreme precipitation \r\nevents (Sebastian et  al., 2019) (14.4.3.1; Box  14.5 The Economic \r\nConsequences of Climate Change in North America, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DISASTER in Chapter 4). According to a multi-method approach, \r\nthe 2014/2015 drought event in Sao Paulo (Brazil) was more likely to \r\nhave been driven by water use changes and population growth than \r\nclimate change (Otto et  al., 2015) (Cross-Chapter Box  DISASTER in \r\nChapter 4)."


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"The science of weather event attribution requires high-quality \r\nobservational data and climate models that are currently available \r\nonly in highly developed countries (Otto et  al., 2020). In addition, \r\nfurther research is necessary to determine the impacts of climate \r\nchange on water-related extremes in the urban areas of developing \r\ncountries (Bai et  al., 2018). For example, a combination of \r\nobservational analysis and global coupled climate models showed \r\nthat the 2015 flooding event in Chennai (India) could not be attributed \r\nto anthropogenic climate change, with the effects of that being \r\nrelatively small in the region due to the impact of GHG increases \r\nbeing largely counteracted by those of aerosols (van Oldenborgh \r\net  al., 2017a) (Section  4.2.5)"


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" Further research is also required to \r\ndetermine the impacts of climate change on water-related extremes \r\nin informal settlements where vulnerability to water insecurity is high \r\ndue to poverty, overcrowding, poor-quality housing and lack of basic \r\ninfrastructure (Scovronick et al., 2015; Grasham et al., 2019; Williams \r\net al., 2019; Satterthwaite et al., 2020)."


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"Some extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and (or) severity as a result of climate change (Seneviratne et al., 2021) (high \r\nconfidence). These include extreme rainfall events (Roxy et al., 2017; Myhre et al., 2019; Tabari, 2020); extreme and prolonged heat leading \r\nto catastrophic fires (Bowman et al., 2017; Krikken et al., 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020); and more frequent and stronger cyclones/\r\nhurricanes and resulting extreme rainfall (Griego et al., 2020). These extreme events, coupled with high vulnerability and exposure in \r\nmany parts of the world, turn into disasters and affect millions of people every year. New advances enable the detection and attribution \r\nof these extreme events to climate change (Otto et al., 2016; Seneviratne et al., 2021), with the most recent study saying that heavy rains \r\nleading to devastating floods in western Europe that captured the world's attention in July 2021 were made more likely due to climate \r\nchange (Kreienkamp et al"


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", 2021). Most WGII chapters (this volume) report various extreme event-induced disasters and their societal \r\nimpacts. This cross-chapter box brings together authors from WGI and WGII to emphasise that disasters following extreme events have \r\nbecome the most visible and public face of climate change (Solecki and Rosenzweig, 2014). These disasters reflect immediate societal and \r\npolitical implications of rising risks (high confidence), but also provide windows of opportunity to raise awareness about climate change \r\nand to implement disaster-reduction policies and strategies (high confidence) (Albright, 2020; Boudet et al., 2020)."


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"While individual events alone can lead to major disasters, when several events occur in close spatial and temporal proximity, impacts \r\nget compounded, with catastrophic results (Zscheischler et al., 2018; Zscheischler et al., 2020). In March 2019, Cyclone Idai (category \r\n2) was the deadliest storm on record to strike the African continent, with the coastal city of Beira in Mozambique being particularly \r\nhard hit with at least 602 deaths (CRED, 2019; Zehra et al., 2019; Phiri et al., 2020). Nationally, Idai caused massive housing, water \r\nsupply, drainage and sanitation destruction, but its impact extended to South Africa through disruption of the regional electricity grid \r\n(Yalew et al., 2020). In April 2019, amidst heightened vulnerabilities in the aftermath of cyclone Idai, cyclone Kenneth (category 4) hit \r\nthe country, affecting 254,750 people and destroying more than 45,000 homes (Kahn et al., 2019)"


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" These circumstances caused the \r\nrapid spread of cholera, which triggered a massive vaccination programme to control the epidemic (Kahn et al., 2019; Lequechane et al., \r\n2020). While there were no specific detection and attribution studies for Idai and Kenneth, overall, there is high confidence that the \r\nrainfall associated with tropical cyclones is more intense because of global warming. However, there remain significant uncertainties \r\nabout the impact of climate change on the numbers and strength of tropical cyclones per se (Walsh et al., 2019; Zhang G. et al., 2020)."


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"Cyclone Amphan hit coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh on 20 May 2020. It was the first supercyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal since \r\n1999 and one of the fiercest to hit West Bengal, India, in the last 100 years. The cyclone intensified from a cyclonic storm (category 1) to \r\na supercyclone (category 5) in less than 36 hours (Balasubramanian and Chalamalla, 2020). Several hours before and on 20 May, extreme \r\nrain events resulted in heavy cumulative rainfall, flash flooding and landslides in several adjoining districts (Mishra and Vanganuru, 2020). \r\nAs per the initial estimates, about 1600 km2\r\n area in the mangrove forests of Sundarbans were damaged, and over 100 lives were lost. \r\nEarlier cyclones in the region have shown that impacts of these events are gendered (Roy, 2019). The cyclone damage was somewhat \r\nlessened due to the delta's mangroves (Sen, 2020). The estimated damage was USD 13.5 billion. Cyclone Amphan was the largest source \r\nof displacement in 2020, with 2"


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"Hurricane Harvey, a category 4 hurricane, made landfall on Texas and Louisiana in August 2017, causing catastrophic flooding and 80 deaths \r\nand inflicting $125 billion (2017 USD) in damage, of which $67 billion (2017 USD) was attributable to climate change (Frame et al., 2020). \r\nSeveral studies estimated the return period of the rainfall associated with this event and assessed that human-induced climate change \r\nincreased the likelihood by a factor of approximately three using a combination of observations and climate models (Risser and Wehner, \r\n2017; van Oldenborgh et al., 2017b). The impacts of Hurricane Harvey were exacerbated by extensive residential development in flood-prone \r\nlocations. A study showed that urbanisation increased the probability of such extreme flood events several folds (Zhang W. et al., 2018) \r\nthrough the alteration of ground cover and disruption and redirection of water flow. Water quality in cities also deteriorated (Horney et al., \r\n2018; Landsman et al"


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", 2019), and 85% of flooded land subsided at a rate of 5 mm yr-1 following the event (Miller and Shirzaei, 2019). \r\nNotably, the impacts of Harvey were unequally distributed along racial and social categories in the greater Houston area. Neighbourhoods \r\nwith larger Black, Hispanic and disabled populations were the worst affected by the flooding following the storm and rainfall (Chakraborty \r\net al., 2018; Chakraborty et al., 2019; Collins et al., 2019b). In addition, racial and ethnic disparities were shown to impact post-disaster needs, \r\nranging from household damage to mental health and recovery (Collins et al., 2019b; Flores et al., 2020; Griego et al., 2020)."


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"The Coastal Nino event of 2017 led to extreme rainfall in Peru, which was made more likely by at least 1.5 times as compared to pre\u0002industrial times due to anthropogenic climate change and Coastal Nino (Christidis et al., 2019) and comparable to the El Nino events of \r\n1982-1983 and 1997-1998 (Poveda et al., 2020). This event showed evidence of larger anomalies in flood exposure (Muis et al., 2018; \r\nChristidis et al., 2019; Rodriguez-Morata et al., 2019) and sediment transport (Morera et al., 2017). In Peru, this Nino event led to USD \r\n6 to 9 billion of monetary losses, more than a million inhabitants were affected, 6614 km of roads were damaged, 326 bridges were \r\ndestroyed, 41,632 homes were damaged or became uninhabitable and 2150 schools and 726 health posts were damaged (French and \r\nMechler, 2017; French et al., 2020), leaving half of the country in a state of emergency (Christidis et al., 2019)"


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" Furthermore, institutional \r\nand systemic sociocultural and political conditions at multiple levels significantly worsened disaster risk management which hampered \r\nresponse and recovery (French et al., 2020). Citizens and zero-order responders proved to be more effective and quicker than national \r\ndisaster risk management response (Briones et al., 2019)."


id: 697f96576a53d31290c749be98dadf8c
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"The mega-fire that occurred in Chile in January 2017 had the highest severity recorded on the planet (CONAF, 2017), burning in three \r\nweeks an area close to 350,000 hectares in south-central Chile. These events have been associated with the prolonged ongoing drought \r\nthat has persisted for more than one decade and with the increase in heat waves (Gonzalez et al., 2018; Miranda et al., 2020). This \r\nextreme drought and the total burned area of the last decades have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change in at least 25% \r\nand 20% of their severity, respectively (Boisier et al., 2016). The mega-fire of summer 2017 resulted in 11 deaths, more than 1500 houses \r\nburned and the destruction of the small town of Santa Olga. The smoke from these fires exposed 9.5 million people to air pollution, \r\ncausing an estimated 76 premature deaths (Bowman et al., 2017; Gonzalez et al., 2020). The direct costs incurred by the State exceeded \r\nUSD 360  million (Gonzalez et  al., 2020)"


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" The 2017 mega-fires led to a series of institutional responses such as management plans \r\nthat include preventive forestry techniques, regulatory plans containing rural-urban interface areas, an emergency forest fire plan, and \r\npromotion of native species (Gonzalez et al., 2020)."


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"vegetation, which provided habitat for 832 species of native vertebrate fauna. Seventy taxa had more than 30% of their habitat impacted, \r\nincluding 21 already identified as threatened with extinction (Ward et al., 2020). In addition, millions of people experienced levels of smoke \r\n20 times higher than the government-identified safe level. The year 2019 had been Australia's warmest and driest year on record. In the \r\nsummer of 2019/2020, the seasonal mean and mean maximum temperatures were the hottest by almost 1degC above the previous record. Eight \r\nof the 10 hottest days on record for national mean temperatures occurred in December 2019. While the prevailing weather conditions were \r\nstrongly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole pressure pattern, with a contribution from weakly positive ENSO conditions in the Pacific, the \r\nfact that Australia is approximately 1degC warmer than the early 20th century demonstrates links to anthropogenic climate change"


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" Eight climate \r\nmodels using event attribution methodologies (comparison of simulations with present-day and pre-industrial forcings) indicates that \r\nanthropogenic climate change made the heat conditions of December 2019 more than twice as likely (van Oldenborgh et al., 2020)."


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"In 2019, Europe experienced several record-breaking heatwaves. In June, the first one featured record heat for that time in early summer, \r\nwith temperatures of 6degC-10degC above normal over most of France and Germany, northern Spain, northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria \r\nand the Czech Republic (Climate, 2019). The second heatwave also resulted in all-time records for Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the \r\nNetherlands and the UK in July. Attribution studies (Vautard et al., 2020) demonstrated that these would have had extremely small odds \r\nin the absence of human-induced climate change or would have been 1.5degC-3degC colder without human-induced climate change. This \r\nstudy concluded that state-of-the-art climate models underestimate the trends in local heat extremes compared to the observed trend. \r\nSince the 2003 heatwave, which resulted in tens of thousands of deaths across Europe, many European countries have adopted heatwave \r\nplans, including early warning systems"


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" Therefore, mortality in 2019 was substantially lower than it might have been. Unfortunately, \r\nmortality is not registered systematically across Europe, and therefore, comprehensive analyses are missing. But even based on the \r\ncountries that provide the numbers, more specifically France, Belgium and the Netherlands, the European heatwave of 2019 resulted in \r\nover 2500 deaths (CRED, 2019). Despite their deadliness and the fact that climate change increases the frequency, intensity and duration \r\nof heatwaves globally (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020), heatwaves are not consistently reported in many countries (Harrington and \r\nOtto, 2020), rendering it currently impossible to estimate climate change impacts on lives and livelihoods comprehensively."


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"From 12 to 15 July 2021, extreme rainfall in Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and neighbouring countries led to severe flooding. The \r\nsevere flooding was caused by very heavy rainfall over a period of 1-2 d, wet conditions prior to the event and local hydrological factors. \r\nThe observed rainfall amounts in the Ahr/Erft region and the Belgian part of the Meuse catchment substantially exceeded previous \r\nrecords for observed rainfall. An attribution study (Kreienkamp et al., 2021) focused on the heavy rainfall rather than river discharge and \r\nwater levels, because sufficient hydrological data was not available, partly because hydrological monitoring systems were destroyed \r\nby the event. Considering a larger region of western Europe between the northern side of the Alps and the Netherlands, in any given \r\nlocation, one such event can be expected every 400 years on average in the current climate"


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" The floods resulted in least 222 fatalities and \r\nsubstantial damage to houses, roads, communication infrastructure, motorways, railway lines and bridges."


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"Disasters resulting from extreme events are increasingly experienced by a large section of human population (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r\n2018). Disasters expose inequalities in natural and managed systems and human systems as they disproportionately affect poor and \r\nmarginalised communities like ethnic minorities, people of colour, Indigenous Peoples, women and children. Therefore, disaster risk \r\nreduction is fundamental for climate justice and climate resilient development (UNISDR, 2015). Far from being disconnected policy \r\nobjectives, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation/adaptation are two sides of the same coin as recognised explicitly by the \r\nParis Agreement and Sendai Framework of 2015. There can be no sustainable development without disaster risk reduction, as explicitly \r\nrecognised by the SDGs of 2015"


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" Furthermore, disaster events can increase awareness among citizens and provide a platform for all \r\nimportant stakeholders, including climate activists, to come together, and give a clarion call for the urgency of climate action."


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"and upstream were found for 32 stream fish species in France (Comte \r\nand Grenouillet, 2013). In North America, for the bull trout (Salvelinus \r\nconfluentus) a reduction in the number of occupied sites was documented \r\nin a watershed in Montana (Eby et  al., 2014). Other impacts include \r\ndisruption of seasonal movements of migratory waterbirds that regularly \r\nvisit freshwater ecosystems, with adverse impacts on their feeding and \r\nbreeding (Finlayson et al., 2006; Bussiere et al., 2015). Keystone species, \r\nsuch as the beaver (Caster Canadensis) in North America, have been \r\nmoving into new areas as the vegetation structure has changed in \r\nresponse to higher temperatures enabling shrubs to establish in the Arctic \r\nand alpine tundra ecosystems (Jung et al., 2016). Increased occurrence \r\nand intensity of algal blooms have occurred due to the interactive effects \r\nof thermal extremes and low dissolved oxygen concentrations in water \r\n(Griffith and Gobler, 2020) (Section 4.2.7)"


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" A global review found that \r\nalmost 90% of all studies reviewed documented a decline in salmonid \r\npopulations in North America and Europe, and identified knowledge gaps \r\nelsewhere (Myers et al., 2017). Another review (Pecl et al., 2017) found \r\ndeclines in Atlantic salmon in Finland and poleward shift in coastal fish \r\nspecies, while another review (Scheffers et al., 2016) noted hybridisation \r\nbetween freshwater species like invasive rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus \r\nmykiss) and native cutthroat trout (O. clarkia)."


id: 905dbfce6ab2fd2e5005d3f6d6fad599
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 20245
content:
"The links between air and water temperatures and ecological processes \r\nin freshwater ecosystems are well recognised. Increasing temperatures \r\naffect wetlands by influencing biophysical processes, affecting feeding \r\nand breeding habits and species' distribution ranges, including their \r\nability to compete with others. Increased temperatures can also \r\ncause deoxygenation in the lower depths of the water columns and \r\nthroughout the entire water column if heating destabilises the water \r\ncolumn. Under extreme heat, often associated with minimal rainfall or \r\nwater flows, the drying of shallower areas and the migration or death \r\nof individual organisms can occur (Dell et al., 2014; Miller et al., 2014; \r\nScheffers et al., 2016; Szekeres et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2017; FAO, \r\n2018a) (high confidence)"


id: fea93689e449c3309e2f699aa37402d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 37612
content:
" A global systematic review of studies since \r\n2005 shows that climate change is a critical direct driver of freshwater \r\necosystems impacts through increasing temperatures or declining \r\nrainfall, for example, by causing physiological stress or death (thermal \r\nstress, dehydration or desiccation), limiting food supplies, or resulting \r\nin migration of animals to other feeding or breeding areas, and possibly \r\nincreased competition with animals already present in those migrating \r\nlocations {Diaz et  al. 2019; Dziba et  al. 2018}. Other drivers include \r\nland use changes, water pollution, extraction of water, drainage and \r\nconversion, and invasive species, which to varying extents interact \r\nsynergistically with climate change or are exacerbated due to climate \r\nchange (Finlayson et al., 2017; Ramsar Convention, 2018)."


id: 1ad5983c65d220bc56e65b1a17553575
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 1694
content:
"Since AR5, only a few studies focused specifically on the association \r\nbetween observed changes in the hydrological cycle linked to climate \r\nchange and conflicts (Zografos et al., 2014; Dinar et al., 2015). Some \r\nstudies associate conflicts with local abundance of water (Salehyan \r\nand Hendrix, 2014; Selby and Hoffmann, 2014; de Juan, 2015), mainly \r\nbecause of political mobilisation around abundant waters and the need \r\nfor developing new rules of allocation among competing users. Others \r\nprovide evidence that the increase in water availability in some areas \r\ncompared with a decrease in other surrounding areas can affect the risk \r\nof a conflict in a region (de Juan, 2015) (low to medium confidence). \r\nHowever, the large majority acknowledges reduction of water availability \r\ndue to climate change as having the potential to exacerbate tensions (de \r\nStefano et al., 2017; Waha et al"


id: 9cf3dd90a73d670633de7ea42010adf6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 22230
content:
", 2017), especially in regions and within \r\ngroups dependent on agriculture for food production (von Uexkull et al., \r\n2016; Koubi, 2019) (high confidence). Particularly representative is the \r\ncase of Syria, where drought aggravated existing water and agricultural \r\ninsecurity (Kelley et al., 2015). However, whether drought caused civil \r\nunrest in Syria remains highly debated (Gleick, 2014; Kelley et al., 2017; \r\nSelby et al., 2017; Ash and Obradovich, 2019). Additionally, there is no \r\nconsensus on the causal association between observed climate changes \r\nand conflict (Hsiang Solomon et  al., 2013; Burke et  al., 2015; Selby, \r\n2019). However, evidence suggests that changes in rainfall patterns \r\namplify existing tensions (Abel et  al., 2019); examples include Syria, \r\nIraq (Abbas et  al., 2016; von Lossow, 2016) and Yemen (Mohamed \r\net  al., 2017) (medium confidence). There is also medium evidence\r\nthat in some regions of Africa (e.g"


id: 70d5bc47a47698db92cb437c05553c85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 15384
content:
", Kenya, Democratic Republic of the \r\nCongo), there are links between observed water stress and individual \r\nattitude for participating in violence, particularly for the least resilient \r\nindividuals (von Uexkull et al., 2020) (medium confidence). A reverse \r\nassociation from conflict to climate impacts has also been observed \r\n(Buhaug, 2016). For example, conflict-affected societies cannot address \r\nclimate-change impacts due to other associated vulnerabilities such as \r\npoverty, food insecurity and political instability.\r\nFor transboundary waters, the probability of inter-state conflict can \r\nboth increase and decrease (Dinar et al., 2019) depending on climatic \r\nvariables (e.g., less precipitation) and other socioeconomic and political \r\nfactors, such as low levels of economic development and political \r\nmarginalisation (Koubi, 2019). Climate change concerns also play a "


id: 50da95c6c275704584b4f8054a178931
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10171
content:
"There is high confidence that glacier retreat and increasing glacier \r\nrunoff variability are negatively affecting cultural beliefs and practices \r\nin high-mountain areas. For example, the loss of glaciers threatens the \r\nethnic identity of the Indigenous Manangi community of the Annapurna \r\nConservation Area of Nepal (Konchar et al., 2015; Mukherji et al., 2019). \r\nLikewise, ice loss in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes has \r\nchallenged traditional approaches of interacting with the glaciers \r\n(Motschmann et al., 2020) (Section 4.2.2). There is high confidence that \r\ncryospheric changes in high-mountain areas also impact traditional \r\npastoral practices by altering seasonal conditions, pasture quality and \r\nwater availability. For example, pasture quality in India (Ingty, 2017); Tibet \r\nAutonomous Region, People's Republic of China (Nyima and Hopping, \r\n2019); and Bolivia (Yager et al"


id: a6606a813d8c145d319f6797207bd733
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23708
content:
", 2019) has been negatively impacted by \r\nclimate-related hydrological changes, leading some Indigenous herders \r\nto diversify livestock, while herders in Nepal (Popular and Rik, 2016) \r\nand Peru (Postigo, 2020) have altered their routes in response to local \r\nwater scarcity. Local communities in high-mountain areas understand \r\nthese hydrological changes through cultural and spiritual frameworks \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement). For instance, in the Peruvian Andes \r\nand the Hindu Kush Himalaya, changing ice is attributed to a lack of \r\nspiritual devotion (Drenkhan et al., 2015; Konchar et al., 2015; Scoville\u0002Simonds, 2018). Communities in the Peruvian Andes also interpret \r\nclimate impacts in the broader context of socioeconomic and political \r\ninjustice and inequality (Drenkhan et al., 2015; Paerregaard, 2018)."


id: 174ac0bf59f6014a9b2a8df8bc6af8a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1175
content:
"Notably, the multi-model median change in precipitation is relatively \r\nsmall in many regions--less than 10% over most of the global land \r\nsurface at 1.5degC global warming. In contrast, in many locations, the \r\n5th to 95th percentile range can include changes that are much larger \r\nchanges than the median and also changes that are relatively large \r\nbut opposite in sign. At 4degC global warming, the median projected \r\nchanges are larger, ranging from a 20% decrease to a 40% increase \r\n(excluding very dry areas, where percentage changes can be much \r\nlarger due to very small baseline values), but nevertheless often remain \r\na poor indicator of the range of changes across the ensemble. Therefore, \r\nuse of the median or mean projected changes for future adaptation \r\ndecisions could substantially underestimate the risk of large changes in \r\nprecipitation. It could mean that the risk of the opposite sign of changes \r\nis not accounted for"


id: 83ecd6a9328eb4dc8b063479b880decf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 18288
content:
" Indeed, for mean precipitation, different multi\u0002model ensembles can show different levels of significance of the central \r\nestimate of change (Uhe et  al., 2021: Figure  4.11a). Consequently, \r\ninformation on the range of possible outcomes can be valued by users \r\nfor effectively informing risk assessments (Lowe et al., 2018)."


id: 539eb7c0c1e883629732e6d10e401858
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 10621
content:
"Figure 4.11 |  Agreement between different multi-model ensembles on significant changes in (a) annual mean precipitation and (b) annual maximum 1-d \r\nprecipitation (Rx1day) at 2degC global warming (Uhe et al., 2021). Using central estimates from five ensembles of climate models (CMIP5, CMIP6, HAPPI, HELIX and UKCP18) \r\nusing different models and different experimental designs for the ensembles, the maps show the number of ensembles for which the central estimate shows a significant drying or \r\nwetting change at 2degC global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. The different ensembles reach 2degC global warming at different times. The projected changes are aggregated \r\nover the new climatic regions defined for IPCC AR6 (Iturbide et al., 2020). Hatched regions show where different ensembles project significant changes in opposite directions, i.e., \r\nthere is no agreement on either drying or wetting"


id: abd45aa6df701e6fc48f9929444b33c8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 24559
content:
" Regions with thick outlines are where CMIP6 disagrees with three of the other four ensembles on the significance of the change, \r\nhighlighting where over-relying on CMIP6 alone may not fully represent the level of confidence in the projections."


id: 3d32bcf809a049ee8eb50c44234a7139
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6992
content:
"(Figure  4.12) and especially between the means of the different \r\nensembles (Figure 4.11b). At 4degC global warming, the 50th percentile \r\nprojection is for increased annual maximum 1-d precipitation over \r\nvirtually all global land, with the median increase being over 20% \r\nfor a majority of the land. The 95th percentile increase is 20-40% \r\nover most mid-latitude areas and at least 40--70% over the tropics \r\nand subtropics, exceeding 80% over western Amazonia, central \r\nAfrica and most of the Indian sub-continent. The 5th percentile also \r\nshows an increase over most global land; in other words, decreased \r\nheavy precipitation has less than a 5% probability in these regions \r\n(Figure  4.12a), although decreases remain possible but of low \r\nprobability in some regions, particularly northern South America and \r\nnorthern and western Africa. At the 50th and 95th percentiles, similar \r\nglobal patterns of change are projected at 2degC and 1"


id: c6cbc9f3cf2635c1e4c1ac7c60cef50d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28848
content:
"5degC global \r\nwarming, with smaller local magnitudes (Figure  4.12e,f,h,i). At the \r\n5th percentile, decreased Rx1day is seen over much larger land areas \r\n(Figure 4.12d,g), which may be a result of internal climate variability \r\nbeing relatively larger than the long-term trend at lower GWLs. In \r\nCMIP5, precipitation extremes are projected to be more likely to \r\nincrease than to decrease on average over both the humid and arid \r\nregions of the world, but with larger uncertainty in arid areas (Donat \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 86371aa04276ad4471d2284506dc48fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 18656
content:
"Figure 4.12 |  Projected percentage changes in annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) averaged over 20 years centred at the time of first passing \r\n(a-c) 4degC, (d-f) 2degC and (g-i) 1.5degC global warming levels (GWLs) relative to 1851-1900. Results are based on simulations from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble under \r\nthe SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Uncertainties in the projections are quantified with the (a, d, g) 5th, (b, e, h) 50th and (c, f, i) 95th percentile \r\nlocal values from the ensemble at each GWL. Note that these are uncertainties at the individual point and are not spatially coherent, that is, they do not represent plausible global \r\npatterns of change. The 50th percentile maps (b, e, h) present the same data over land as Figure 11.16 of Seneviratne et al. (2021)"


id: 6c1d98d75925cb5b485ea2fa41947047
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 14639
content:
" The numbers on the left indicate the number of \r\nsimulations included at each warming level, including multiple realisations from some models with varying initial conditions, depending on data availability. Results for the 1.5degC \r\nGWL include 37 unique models. Fewer models and realisations are available for the 2degC and 4degC GWLs, as fewer scenarios and/or models reach those warming levels. For individual \r\nmodels, the global patterns of changes are very similar across scenarios, and any differences between scenarios are smaller than the ensemble uncertainty for an individual scenario. \r\nThe CMIP6 projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation are discussed in more detail by WGI (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 705aa55bff6b0dc670ae4be4a7eaa5a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 15292
content:
"AR5 noted that global glacier mass loss is very likely to increase further \r\nduring the 21st century (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). According to the \r\nSROCC (Hock et al., 2019b), it is very likely that glaciers will continue \r\nto lose mass throughout the 21st century: from 18% (by 2100, relative \r\nto 2015) for RCP2.6 to 36% for RCP8.5. AR5 (Collins et  al., 2013) \r\nand SROCC (Meredith et  al., 2019) reported with high confidence\r\nthat permafrost would continue to thaw in the 21st century, but \r\nthe projections are uncertain. Constraining warming to 1.5degC would \r\nprevent the thawing of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5  million km2 \r\ncompared to thawing under 2degC (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2018b). \r\nAR5 (Collins et al., 2013) and SROCC (Meredith et al., 2019) concluded \r\nthat Northern Hemisphere snow extent and mass would likely reduce \r\nby the end of the 21st century, both in plain and mountain regions. AR6 \r\nassessed with medium confidence that under RCP2.6 and RCP8"


id: 85302fb60102ce06416f0ae04c3311c2
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vector_id: 18479
content:
"5 from \r\n2015 to 2100, glaciers are expected to lose 18% and 36% of their early \r\n21st-century mass, respectively (AR6 WGI, (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021))."


id: 560652a716a42692aabdb392ad0ff9a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11024
content:
"AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014) concluded that increases in the \r\nmean annual runoff are projected in high latitudes and the wet tropics \r\nand decreases in dry tropical regions, but with very considerable \r\nuncertainty. Both the patterns of change and uncertainties were found \r\nto be primarily driven by projected changes in precipitation. SR1.5 \r\n(Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018) concluded with medium confidence\r\nthat areas with either positive or negative changes in mean annual \r\nrunoff/streamflow are projected to be smaller for 1.5degC than for 2degC of \r\nglobal warming. AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) conclude with medium \r\nconfidence that global runoff will increase with global warming \r\nbut with significant regional and seasonal variations. WGI further \r\nconcluded with high confidence that runoff will increase in the high \r\nnorthern latitudes and decrease in the Mediterranean and southern \r\nAfrica"


id: c34ccb4ebc36d88ce259ada1827d31b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28294
content:
" However, there was medium confidence that runoff will increase \r\nin central and eastern African regions and decrease in Central America \r\nand parts of southern South America. The magnitude of the change \r\nis projected to increase with emissions. There is medium confidence\r\nthat the seasonality of runoff and streamflow will increase with global \r\nwarming in the subtropics. In snow-dominated regions, there is high \r\nconfidence that peak flows associated with spring snowmelt will occur \r\nearlier in the year and medium confidence that snowmelt-induced \r\nrunoff will decrease with reduced snow, except in glacier-fed basins \r\nwhere runoff may increase in the near term."


id: af6660a06d552fe4b8920f570aeb9e28
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25109
content:
"Projections of snow cover metrics [IPCC AR6 WGI, 2021 (Section 9.5.3.3)] \r\nsuggest a further decrease in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow \r\ncover extent (SCE), though the inter-model spread is considerable (Lute \r\net al., 2015; Thackeray et al., 2016; Kong and Wang, 2017; Henderson \r\net  al., 2018) (high confidence). The projected CMIP6 SCE and SWE \r\nchanges share the broad features of the CMIP5 projections: SCE is \r\nexpected to decrease in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately \r\n20%, relative to the 1995-2014 mean value, around 2060 and stabilise \r\nafterwards under the RCP2.6 scenario, while the RCP8.5 scenario \r\nleads to snow cover losses up to 60% by 2100 (Mudryk et al., 2020). \r\nRegionally, the SWE loss will probably lead to more frequent snow \r\ndroughts; for example, the frequency of consecutive snow droughts is \r\nprojected to increase to 80-100% of years at 4deg\r\nC warming in western \r\nCanada (Shrestha et  al., 2021) and 42% of years under the RCP8"


id: 5e653be828627f7982f6a917dbb48e0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12384
content:
"5 \r\nscenario in the western USA (Marshall et al., 2019) by 2100. Thus, by the \r\nmid- to late 21st century, for more than 2/3 of snow-dominated areas in \r\nthe western USA, the ability to predict seasonal droughts and prepare \r\nrobust water management plans will decline (Livneh and Badger, 2020) \r\n(Section 4.4.5)."


id: fe9e25560790d4649c06e0ddcb95d52d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37600
content:
"Changes in runoff and streamflow are projected over most of the \r\nice-free land surface with all recent climate and hydrological model \r\nensembles (Figure  4.16). Changes in streamflow could increase the \r\nnumber of people facing water scarcity or insecurity (high confidence) \r\n(Schewe et  al., 2014; Gosling and Arnell, 2016; McMillan et  al., \r\n2016). Projections of future runoff at basin scales show considerable \r\nuncertainty in many regions, including differences in signs in many \r\nregions (Figure  4.16). This uncertainty is driven by uncertainties in \r\nregional precipitation patterns and hydrological models (Koirala \r\net al., 2014; Asadieh et al., 2016), including vegetation responses to \r\nCO2 and its effects on ET (Betts et al., 2015). This uncertainty in future \r\nwater availability contributes to the policy challenges for adaptation, \r\nfor example, for managing risks of water scarcity (Greve et al., 2018; \r\nBox  4.1)"


id: b7565bc9b59c2c0200c52dfe7013470b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26373
content:
" In many regions, some models project large changes in \r\nrunoff/streamflow but with low consistency between models on the \r\nsign of the change (Figure 4.16). In streamflow projections driven by \r\n11 CMIP5 models with the RCP8.5 scenario, strong model consistency \r\n(agreement by at least 10 models) is only seen over 21% of global \r\nland (Koirala et al., 2014). Consensus on the sign of projected change \r\nis smaller with the RCP4.5 scenario."


id: d67862afa6d80e4b0ff981f43480fa8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31257
content:
"In CMIP5, strong model consistency on changes in high and low \r\nstreamflows is seen with similar global patterns to the mean flows, but \r\nover smaller areas (Koirala et al., 2014). By the end of the 21st century, \r\nwith RCP8.5, increases in mean, high and low flows are projected for \r\nthe Lena, and mean and low flows for the MacKenzie (Gelfan et al., \r\n2017; Pechlivanidis et  al., 2017; Doll et  al., 2018). Increased mean \r\nand high flows are projected in the Ganges, high flow in the Rhine \r\nand Mississippi, while decreasing mean and low flows are projected \r\nin the Rhine (Krysanova et al., 2017; Pechlivanidis et al., 2017; Vetter \r\net al., 2017). Decreases in mean, high and low flows are projected for \r\nthe Tagus (Krysanova et al. 2017; Vetter et al. 2017). Low flows are \r\nprojected to decrease in the Mediterranean region and increase in the \r\nAlps and northern Europe (Marx et al., 2018)"


id: 49ce6ab382b645d78978e73fb30f8a71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9009
content:
" A general shift in the \r\nrunoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff is projected in \r\nMexico, western USA, western Europe, southeastern China and the \r\nWest Siberian Plain, and more extreme high runoff is projected in \r\nAlaska, northern Canada and large parts of Asia (Zhai et al., 2020)."


id: 89736ec2a66ee7ec9d82e3d31d83105e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19164
content:
"In summary, mean and extreme streamflow changes are projected over \r\nmost of the ice-free land surface (high confidence). The magnitude of \r\nstreamflow change is projected to increase with global warming in \r\nmost regions (high confidence), but there is often high uncertainty on \r\nthe sign of change. There is high confidence that mean streamflows \r\nwill increase in the northern high latitudes and decrease in the \r\nMediterranean and southern Africa. Annual mean runoff in one third of \r\nassessed glacierised catchments is projected to decline by at least 10% \r\nby 2100 under RCP4.5, with the most significant reductions in central \r\nAsia and the Andes (medium confidence). Elsewhere, projections include \r\nboth increased and decreased flows. Substantial fractions of ensemble \r\nprojections disagree with the multi-model mean (high confidence), with \r\nimplications for long-term planning for water management. With 1"


id: 3959f683d675a48ae7e2d71afa5af599
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6402
content:
"5 \r\nand 2degC global warming, approximately 15 and 20% of the current \r\nglobal population, respectively, would experience both an increase \r\nin high streamflows and a decrease in low streamflows (medium \r\nconfidence). At 4degC global at the end of the century, 10% of the global \r\nland area is projected to simultaneously experience an increase in high \r\nextreme streamflow and decrease in low extreme streamflow."


id: 891f701b22321fd4f11ea0e5377e0806
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vector_id: 19112
content:
"While projected changes in high and low flows are similar to those in \r\nmean flows in many regions, this is not the case everywhere. When a \r\nsingle hydrological model and a sample of climate models are selected \r\nto explore uncertainties systematically, approximately 56% of the \r\nglobal population is projected to be affected by increased extreme high \r\nflows at 1.5degC warming, rising to 61% at 2degC warming (Zhai et al., \r\n2020). Those affected by extreme low flows decrease is projected to \r\nremain close to 45% at both 1.5degC and 2degC warming. However, these \r\nresults are based on the median of the ensemble projections, so they \r\nare subject to high uncertainty. At 1.5degC  global warming, 15% of \r\nthe population is projected to be affected concurrently by decreased \r\nextreme low flows and increased extreme high flows, increasing \r\nto 20% at 2degC warming. In 25 combinations of five CMIP5 climate \r\nmodels and five global hydrological models under the RCP8"


id: 7e13e5c7bc59ad5f471c647fbfa5ae17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 17405
content:
"5 scenario \r\nreaching approximately 4degC GWL at the end of the century, 10% of the \r\nglobal land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high \r\nextreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow. These \r\nregions include the British Isles and the shores of the North Sea, large \r\nparts of the Tibetan Plateau, South Asia and western Oceania, and \r\nsmaller regions of Africa and North and South America, affecting over \r\n2.1  billion people with 2015 population distributions (Asadieh and \r\nKrakauer, 2017). With 11 CMIP5 models driving a single hydrological \r\nmodel, simultaneous increases in high flows and decreases in low \r\nflows are projected over 7% of global land (Koirala et al., 2014)."


id: 11fbb857de19a9fa320028bc72257ad4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 329
content:
"Figure 4.17 |  Multi-model median return period (years) in the 2080s for the 20th-century 100-year river flood, based on a global river and inundation model, \r\nCaMa-Flood, driven by runoff output of nine CMIP6 Models in the SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b) and SSP5-8.5 (c) scenario respectively. All changes are estimated in \r\n2071-2100 relative to 1970--2000. A dot indicates regions with high model consistency (more than seven models out of nine show the same direction of change).\r\n(d) Global or regional potential exposure (% to the total population affected by flooding) under different global warming levels with a constant population scenario and climate \r\nof CMIP5-HELIX (circle, Alfieri et al., 2017) and CMIP6 (triangle, Hirabayashi et al., 2021b), and with the population scenario of SSP5 and climate of CMIP6 (bar chart, Hirabayashi \r\net al., 2021b). Inundation is calculated when the magnitude of flood exceeds current flood protection (Scussolini et al., 2016)"


id: e52c526d71d106970638606e3312b7e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33550
content:
" Note that number of GCMs used to calculate global \r\nwarming level (GWL) 4.0 is less than that for other GWLs, as the global mean temperature change of some GCMs did not exceed 4degC."


id: 720d740fcf2845edda1a73d59689c26b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15572
content:
"Challenges to projecting flood risk are large because of the complexity of \r\nthe projecting snowmelt, high-intensity rainfall and soil wetness in large \r\nriver basins. Even though increases in the number and area of glacier \r\nlakes may cause increases in glacier-related floods (Section  4.2.2), \r\nknowledge of the frequency or magnitude of glacier-related projected \r\nfloods is limited. Some local studies indicate that the severity of ice-jam \r\nflooding is projected to decrease (Rokaya et al., 2019; Das et al., 2020), \r\nbut a model study in Canada projected increases in damage of ice-jam \r\nfloods (Turcotte et al., 2020). While most flood risk projections do not \r\nconsider the impact of urban expansion, Guneralp et al. (2015) estimate \r\nthat urban areas exposed to flooding will increase by a factor of 2.7 \r\ndue to urban growth by 2030 (Section  4.5.4)"


id: 8d7418d7f68910fee7cbbf2f7571419b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 19781
content:
" Given the significant \r\ndifferences in assumption in flood protection, exposure or vulnerability \r\nscenario among studies, uncertainties in the global estimation of flood \r\nlosses and damages are large are large (Table 4.6, 4.7.5)."


id: 2944c72f6df6b8fd228aa7768db1c9a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3931
content:
"In a study with multiple climate models, global water models and \r\nscenarios, the choice of drought definition was the dominant source \r\nof uncertainty in the sign of projected change in drought frequency \r\nin over 17% of global land by 2070-2099, including several major \r\nwheat- and maize-growing areas where agricultural (soil moisture) \r\ndrought is of high importance (Satoh et al., 2021). Cook et al. (2020a) \r\nnoted that in the CMIP6 projections, soil moisture and runoff drying \r\nare more robust, spatially extensive and severe than precipitation, \r\nresulting in the frequency of agricultural drought increasing over wider \r\nareas than for meteorological drought. At 1.5degC global warming, the \r\nlikelihood of extreme agricultural (soil moisture) drought is projected \r\nto at least double (100% increase) over large areas of northern South \r\nAmerica, the Mediterranean, western China and high latitudes in \r\nNorth America and Eurasia (Figure 4.18, left column)"


id: 86a8d0a5c91a26cd6968d38a2b6d6eca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 18726
content:
" The likelihood \r\nis projected to increase by 150-200% in these regions at 2degC global \r\nwarming, with an expansion of the affected areas, and increase by \r\nover 200% at 4degC global warming. Agricultural drought likelihood also \r\nincreases by 100-250% at 4degC global warming in southwestern North \r\nAmerica, southwest Africa, southern Asia and Australia. The likelihood \r\nof extreme drought is projected to decrease in central North America, \r\nthe Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the eastern Indian sub-continent and parts \r\nof western and eastern Asia. Using eight global hydrological models \r\ndriven by a subset of four of the CMIP5 climate models, Lange et al. \r\n(2020) projected a 370% (30-790%) increase of the global population \r\nannually exposed to agricultural (soil moisture) droughts in response \r\nto 2degC global warming. Therefore, it is essential to consider the drought \r\ntype when applying drought projections to impact and risk in decision\u0002making, especially for informing adaptation"


id: 965166bbf6eb49e8ab413c2c34bde5ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21159
content:
" For example, if responses \r\nare explicitly tailored to agricultural (soil moisture) drought changes, \r\nprojected changes in a meteorological (precipitation) drought metric \r\nmay not provide accurate information."


id: db675561397d0de6f4aea9855c2bfd9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32031
content:
"In summary, there is high confidence that the magnitude and frequency \r\nof floods are projected to increase in many regions, including Asia, \r\ncentral Africa, western Europe, Central and South America and eastern \r\nNorth America, and decrease in northern North America, southern South \r\nAmerica, the Mediterranean and eastern Europe. Projected increases in \r\nflooding pose increasing risks, with a 1.2-1.8 and 4-5 times increase \r\nin global GDP loss at 2degC and 4degC compared to 1.5degC warming, \r\nrespectively (medium confidence). Without adaptation, projected \r\nincreases in flooding are 1.4 to 2.5 and 2.5 to 3.9 times in global GDP \r\nloss at 2degC and 3degC compared to 1.5degC warming, respectively (medium \r\nconfidence). However, regional differences in risks are large because \r\nof the strong influence of socioeconomic conditions and significant \r\nuncertainty in flood hazard projection"


id: 88e6db5d1d59238756e521346af8f738
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19077
content:
" In small river basins and urban \r\nareas, there is medium confidence that projected increases in heavy \r\nrainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local flooding. \r\nHowever, the snowmelt floods are projected to decrease (medium \r\nconfidence) and occur 25-30 d earlier in the year by the end of the \r\n21st century with RCP8.5 (high confidence)."


id: 9d74100bc4f8d651eb986da2f274dcfd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22301
content:
"2020). However, the level of uncertainties in representing the effects of \r\nCO2 is still very high, precluding conclusive results in a global analysis \r\n(de Kauwe et al., 2013; Prudhomme et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2016). \r\nMost CMIP6 climate models include CO2 physiological effects, but \r\nmany hydrological models used for impacts studies do not.\r\nTerrestrial water storage (TWS) is the sum of continental water stored \r\nin canopies, snow and ice, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, soil \r\nand groundwater (Pokhrel et  al., 2021). TWS drought can therefore \r\n4.4.6 Projected Changes in Groundwater\r\nAR5 concluded that the range of projected future changes in \r\ngroundwater storage was large, from statistically significant declines \r\nto increases due to several uncertainties in existing models (Jimenez \r\nCisneros et al., 2014). AR6 (Douville et al"


id: f3e2fc63604a26fe7f713eaf5dbe59fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35889
content:
", 2021) concluded with high \r\nconfidence that projected increases in precipitation alone cannot ensure \r\nan increase in groundwater storage under a warming climate unless \r\nunsustainable trends in groundwater extraction are also reversed."


id: e3213362c3f3c73348ac52598125739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33228
content:
"groundwater recharge or storage, eight reported an increase and the \r\nrest showed no substantial change (Amanambu et al., 2020). A global\u0002scale multi-model ensemble study projected decreasing recharge in \r\nsouthern Chile, Brazil, central continental USA, the Mediterranean \r\nand East China, but consistent and increasing recharge for northern \r\nEurope and East Africa (Reinecke et al., 2021). In continental Spain, a \r\nmodelling study (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2018) projected significant \r\nreductions in groundwater recharge in the central and southeast \r\nregion but a small and localised increase in east and northeastern \r\nareas. In subarctic Alaska, increased contribution of glacier melts to \r\nstreamflow and aquifer recharge under a warming climate is projected \r\n(Liljedahl et  al., 2017). In contrast, over the Iranian and Anatolia \r\nPlateaus, groundwater recharge is projected to reduce by ~77% in \r\nthe spring season (March-May) due to a decrease in snowfall (Wu \r\net al., 2020)"


id: b54d3ba618b3207e042b0dba8a8d632a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26067
content:
" Overall, several recent studies of climate change impacts \r\non groundwater in different parts of the world have concluded that \r\nprojected groundwater recharge could either increase or decrease, \r\nand results are often uncertain (high confidence) (Meixner et al., 2016; \r\nZaveri et al., 2016; Hartmann et al., 2017; Mehran et al., 2017; Tillman \r\net al., 2017; Kahsay et al., 2018; Herbert and Doll, 2019)."


id: 213f68e544c25263da5244713ad1aa39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2669
content:
"Climate change is also projected to impact groundwater-dependent \r\necosystems and groundwater quality negatively (medium confidence). \r\nProjected increase in precipitation intensity and storms can contaminate \r\ngroundwater by mobilising contaminants such as chemical fertilisers, \r\npesticides and antibiotics and leaching of human waste from pit \r\nlatrines into groundwater (Amanambu et al., 2020; Lall et al., 2020). By \r\n2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected in \r\n42-79% of the world's watersheds. The majority of these watersheds \r\ncurrently experience intensive groundwater use, and changes in critical \r\nstreamflow are projected to negatively impact aquatic ecosystems (de \r\nGraaf et al., 2019). Using a global synthesis of 9404 data points from \r\n32  countries across six continents, McDonough et  al. (2020) report \r\nincreases in DOC concentrations in groundwater following projected \r\nchanges in precipitation and temperature"


id: f21bbdc83ce72e5f7880c8aeac852bcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35621
content:
" For example, hotspots \r\nof high DOC concentration (increases of up to 45%) are associated \r\nmainly with increased temperatures in the wettest quarter of the year \r\nin the southeastern USA under RCP8.5 scenarios."


id: 829f0a5569a1e41194ac68deae363484
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18072
content:
"Quantitative projections on climate-induced water quality degradation \r\nare sparse. Aminomethylphosphonic acid and glyphosate are \r\nprojected to exceed drinking water quality standards in dry years \r\nin a high-emissions scenario in the Meuse River in Europe by 2050 \r\n(Sjerps et al., 2017). From 2020 to 2050, based on scenarios RCP2.6, \r\nRCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the incidences of total nitrogen pollution are \r\nprojected as 97.3, 97.1 and 94.6%, respectively, in drought-flood \r\nabrupt alternation months compared to 69.3, 69.7 and 67.5% in \r\nnormal months in the Luanhe River basin in China (Bi et al., 2019). \r\nFrom 2012 to 2050, freshwater river area is expected to decrease from \r\n40.8% to 17.1-19.7% under different sea level rise scenarios in the \r\nsouthwest coastal zone of Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2013). Under \r\nthe warming scenario of +4"


id: 6260ba4eeed85224e0df3d66a21bb508
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13041
content:
"8degC increase by the end of the century, the \r\naverage nutrient abundance is projected to triple in a shallow lake in \r\nthe northwest of England (Richardson et al., 2019)."


id: d4adc7cd9fbc11c90f983bed379e90dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30987
content:
"Observed sectoral water-related impacts have been documented across \r\nworld regions. Climate change is projected to further exacerbate many \r\nof these risks, especially at warming levels above 1.5degC (Figure 4.20). For \r\nsome sectors and regions, climate change may also hold the potential \r\nfor beneficial outcomes, though feedback and cascading effects \r\nas well as risks of climate extremes are not always well understood \r\nand often underestimated in impact projections. Risks manifest as a \r\nconsequence of the interplay of human and natural vulnerability, sector\u0002specific exposure as well as the climate hazard as a driver of climate \r\nchange. Challenges to water security are driven by factors across these \r\ncomponents of risk, where climate change is but one facet of driving \r\nwater insecurity in the face of global change"


id: d4faba1188a37ebaf62276aa1deb1f9a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31040
content:
" While the focus of this \r\nchapter is on climate change and its effects on water security, for many \r\nsectors and regions the dynamics of socioeconomic conditions is a core \r\ndriver. They play an essential role in understanding and alleviating water \r\nsecurity risks. The following sections outline sectoral risks for both, risks \r\ndriven by water-related impacts, such as drought, flood or changes in \r\nwater availability, as well as risks with effects on water uses, mainly \r\nfocusing on changing water demand as a consequence of climate \r\nchange. It therefore does not cover all climate change-driven risks to \r\nthe respective sectors, but is limited to those that stand in relation to \r\nwater. The focus within this chapter is on global to regional processes \r\n(additional regional to local information in Table SM4.4; Figure 4.20 as \r\nwell as across regional chapters of this report)."


id: b695df562ed0635525eec8d655c4799b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26244
content:
"Globally, climate change is estimated to be responsible for 30-66% \r\nincrease of soil erosion by 2070, while socioeconomic developments \r\nimpacting land use may lead to +- 10% change of soil erosion (Borrelli \r\net al., 2020). At a regional scale, different effects of the climate change \r\nimpact on soil losses are found owing to the ensemble experiments \r\nwith climate models coupled with regional/local models of soil \r\nerosion and sediment yield. In the 21st century, the soil erosion rates \r\nare projected to increase for the European countries (Czech Republic \r\n(Svoboda et al., 2016), Belgium (Mullan et al., 2019), Spain (Eekhout \r\net  al., 2018; Eekhout and de Vente, 2019a; Eekhout and De Vente, \r\n2019b), Germany (Gericke et al., 2019)) by 10-80% depending on the \r\nemission scenario and time period of the projection, as well as for the \r\nUSA (Garbrecht and Zhang, 2015) and Australia (Yang et al., 2015b; \r\nZhu et al., 2020)"


id: 4c4b6a0f275c507598f52b82d0f75f51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9430
content:
" Only a few studies demonstrated decreasing trend \r\nin soil erosion, for example, up to 9% with RCP8.5 scenario in Greece \r\n(Vantas et al., 2020). Sediment yield is projected to both increase (5-"


id: 3c7de33e758c8994856c76c35f49eaef
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6882
content:
"To stabilise yields against variations in moisture availability, irrigation \r\nis the often the most common adaptation response (Section  4.6.2, \r\nBox  4.3). Projections indicate a potentially substantial increase in \r\nirrigation water requirements (Boretti and Rosa, 2019). Increasing \r\nagricultural water demand is driven by various factors, including \r\npopulation growth, increased irrigated agriculture, cropland expansion \r\nand higher demand for bio-energy crops for mitigation (Chaturvedi \r\net al., 2015; Grafton et al., 2015; Turner et al., 2019; 4.7.6). Depending \r\non underlying assumptions and the constraints on water resources \r\nimplemented in the global agricultural models, irrigation water \r\nrequirements are projected to increase two- to three-fold by the end of \r\nthe century (Hejazi et al., 2014; Bonsch et al., 2015; Chaturvedi et al., \r\n2015; Huang et al., 2019)"


id: 7bf5b8b733083b77bd8952c33b16734c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17105
content:
" While the combined effects of population \r\nand land use change as well as irrigation expansion account for the \r\nsignificant part of the projected increases in irrigation water demand \r\nby the end of the century, around 14% of the increase is directly \r\nattributed to climate change (RCP6.0) (Huang et al., 2019)."


id: 4f3144fa387f482da4ac2b2c990ba969
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9899
content:
"With various degrees of water stress being experienced under current \r\nconditions and further changes in regional water availability projected, \r\nas well as continuing groundwater depletion as a consequence of \r\nover-abstraction for irrigation purposes (Sections  4.2.6 and 4.4.6), \r\nlimitations to major irrigation expansion will occur in some regions, \r\nincluding South and Central Asia, the Middle East and parts of North and \r\nCentral America (Grafton et al., 2015; Turner et al., 2019). Constraining \r\nprojections of available irrigation water through consideration of \r\nenvironmental flow requirements further reduces the potential for \r\nirrigation capacity and expansion (Bonsch et  al., 2015)"


id: 4851f3c2423c1f7ee575ab6eb9b83c67
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8752
content:
" Changes in \r\nland use and production patterns, for example, expansion of rain-fed \r\nproduction and increasing inter-regional trade, would be required to \r\nmeet growing food demand while preserving environmental flow \r\nrequirements, though this may increase local food security-related \r\nvulnerabilities (Cross-Chapter Box  INTERREG in Chapter 16) (Pastor \r\net al., 2014). Where climate impacts on yields are not a consequence \r\nof water limitations (mainly for C4 crops), irrigation cannot offset \r\nnegative yield impacts (Levis et al., 2018)."


id: 3aba54d532f1a2f75c4e05a9de71e23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6610
content:
"For hydropower production at a global scale, Turner et  al. (2017) \r\nprojected an uncertainty in the direction of change in global hydropower \r\nproduction to the tune of +5% to -5% by the 2080s, under a high\u0002emissions scenario. On the other hand, van Vliet et al. (2016b) projected \r\nan increase in global hydropower production between +2.4% to +6.3% \r\nunder RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the 2080s, as compared to a \r\nbaseline period of 1971-2000, but with significant regional variations \r\n(high confidence). For example, regions like central Africa, India, central \r\nAsia and northern high-latitude areas are projected to see more than \r\n20% increases in gross hydropower potential (high confidence). On the \r\nother hand, southern Europe, northern Africa, southern USA and parts \r\nof South America, southern Africa and southern Australia are projected \r\nto experience more than 20% decreases in gross hydropower potential"


id: 282e9f4a557d88a56b7e2d79677271fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3732
content:
" \r\nThe Mediterranean region is projected to see almost a 40% reduction \r\nin hydropower production (high confidence) (Turner et al., 2017). On \r\nthe other hand, northern Europe and India are projected to add to their \r\nhydropower production capacity due to climate change by mid-century \r\n(high confidence) (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Turner et al., 2017; Emodi \r\net al., 2019)."


id: e7f96c1474b5f87937b324d7ff5770f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33994
content:
"Mekong Basin, the total hydropower generation is projected to decline \r\nby 3.0% and 29.3% under 1.5degC and 2degC, respectively (Meng et al., \r\n2021). In this context, 1.5degC will come up in 2036 under RCP2.6 and \r\nin 2033, under RCP6.0; and 2degC will come up in 2056 under RCP6.0 \r\n(Frieler et al., 2017a). In India, hydropower production is projected to \r\nincrease by up to 25% by the end of the 21st century due to increased \r\ntemperature and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario. However, \r\nhydropower production is projected to decline in plants located in \r\nsnow-dominated rivers due to earlier snowmelt (Ali et al., 2018). In \r\nColombia, hydropower production is projected to decrease by ~10% \r\nunder the RCP4.5 dry scenario by 2050 (Arango-Aramburo et al., 2019). \r\nIn a sub-basin of the Amazon River (one of the hydropower hotspots \r\nin Brazil), dry-season hydropower potential is projected to decline by \r\n-7.4 to -5.4% from historical baseline conditions under RCP4.5 (Arias \r\net al"


id: 6c8659e8e94f4bb9dae8e7df2fdc8bb2
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content:
", 2020). In the Sao Francisco basin of Brazil, hydropower production \r\nis projected to reduce by -15% to -20% by 2100 under the IPCC A1B \r\nscenario (de Jong et al., 2018), which will affect the Brazilian energy \r\nmix in the future. In Ecuador, under various policy pathways and dry \r\nand wet scenarios under RCP4.5, hydropower production is projected \r\nto increase by +7% to +21% or decline by -25% to -44% by 2050 \r\n(Carvajal et al., 2019). In Europe, different impacts are projected across \r\ndifferent sub-regions (WGII, Chapter 13, Table 13.7- Projected climate \r\nchange risks for energy supply in Europe by 2100). In northern Europe, \r\nup to 20% of hydropower potential increases are projected under 3degC \r\nwarming; increases of up to 15% and 10% are projected under 2degC and \r\n1.5degC warming levels. In Mediterranean parts of Europe, hydropower \r\npotential reductions of up to -40% are projected under 3degC warming; \r\nwhile reductions below -10% and -5% are projected under 2degC \r\nand 1"


id: 79c464772a6819d5d917fe1edc1f58ff
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"5degC warming levels, respectively (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Tobin \r\net al., 2018). Hydropower plants in Switzerland are projected to lose \r\n~1.0 TWh of hydroelectricity production per year by 2070-2090 due to \r\nnet glacier mass loss in the earlier part of the century (Schaefli et al., \r\n2019). In the Italian Alps, under the warmest scenario of RCP8.4, up \r\nto 4% decreases in hydropower production are projected (Bombelli \r\net  al., 2019). The magnitude of change differs significantly among \r\nmodels. In California, USA, the average annual hydropower generation \r\nis expected to decline by 3.1% under RCP4.5 by 2040-2050, compared \r\nto the baseline 2000-2010 (Tarroja et al., 2016). In the Skagit River \r\nbasin in the USA, hydropower generation is projected to increase by \r\n19% in the winter/spring and decline by 29% in summer by the 2080s \r\n(Lee et al., 2016)."


id: 1a610aa396df082007ab3b2b927592f1
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"In Asia, under a 2degC global warming scenario, coal power plants' \r\nannual usable capacity factor in Mongolia, Southeast Asia and parts \r\nof China and India are projected to decrease due to water constraints \r\n(Wang et  al., 2019b). In the EU, an assessment of 1326 thermal \r\nelectric plants in 818 basins projected that the number of basins with \r\nwater stress would increase from 47 in 2014 to 54 in 2030 (Behrens \r\net  al., 2017) with consequent impacts on cooling water supplies. In \r\nthe western USA, by 2050, vulnerable power plants are projected to \r\nlose 1.1-3.0% of average summer generation capacity, which could \r\nrise to 7.2 to 8.8% loss under a 10-year drought condition (Bartos \r\nand Chester, 2015). Further, 27% of thermoelectric production in the \r\nUSA may be at severe risk of low-capacity utilisation due to water \r\nstress by 2030 (Ganguli et al., 2017)"


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" Thermoelectric plant capacity on \r\nthe hottest summer day in the USA and EU is projected to fall by 2% \r\nunder a 2degC global warming and by 3.1% under a 4degC global warming, \r\nrequiring overbuilding of electricity infrastructure by 1-7% given the \r\ncurrent energy mix portfolio (Coffel and Mankin, 2020). A systematic \r\nreview showed consistent decreases in mid to end of the century in \r\nthermal power production capacity due to insufficiency of cooling \r\nwater in southern, western and eastern Europe (high confidence); \r\nNorth America and Oceania (high confidence), central, southern \r\nand western Asia (high confidence) and western and southern \r\nAfrica (medium confidence) (Emodi et al., 2019). Overall, apart from \r\nemissions benefits, moving away from thermal power generation to \r\nother renewable energy will also lower the chances of climate-induced \r\ncurtailment of energy production (high confidence)."


id: 3ebc0cc55a59c8253034dadfe9cc306b
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"Global freshwater demand for the energy sector is projected to increase \r\nunder all 2degC scenarios due to the rapid increase in electricity demand \r\nin developing countries (Fricko et al., 2016). Despite the water shortage \r\nand climate change impacts, industry and energy sectors' share in global \r\nwater demand has been projected to rise to 24% by 2050 (UN Water, \r\n2020), which will increase the competition among various water-use \r\nsectors (Boretti and Rosa, 2019). Furthermore, mining activities, which \r\nare highly dependent on sufficient water availability, are also at risk \r\ndue to climate change (Aleke and Nhamo, 2016). Given that some of \r\nthe intensely mined regions, such as the Atacama Desert in Chile, are \r\nalready water-scarce, even small changes in rainfall could destabilise \r\nwater-intensive mining operations and affect the production and \r\nprocessing activities at mines (Odell et al., 2018)"


id: 989bbc4617ceec4232e1de957989d914
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" Overall, there is a \r\nlack of literature on the impact of climate change on future mining \r\nactivities and other water-intensive industries."


id: a56677e388f7c43822012c8739244b1d
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content:
"Apart from climate impacts on hydropower production, climate\u0002induced flood loads and reservoir water level change may lead to \r\ndam failure under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios (Fluixa-Sanmartin \r\net al., 2018; Fluixa-Sanmartin et al., 2019) (medium confidence). For \r\nexample, the incidence of 100-year floods in the Skagit River basin \r\nin the USA and peak winter sediments are projected to increase by \r\n49% and 335%, respectively, by 2080, necessitating fundamental \r\nchanges in hydropower plant operation. Nevertheless, some risks, such \r\nas floods, will remain unmitigated even with changes in hydropower \r\noperation rules (Lee et al., 2016). Overall, impacts of future extreme \r\nevents on energy infrastructure have been less studied than impacts of \r\ngradual changes (Cronin et al., 2018)"


id: 27181d714c90aae34b5ca1236d97b14b
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"levels of treatment compliance and boiling water before consumption \r\noffset the projected impact of climate change on giardiasis in Canada \r\nin the 2050 scenario, but could not wholly offset the projected impact \r\nin 2080 (Smith et  al., 2015). Climate change impacts on WaSH\u0002attributable disease burden are also projected to delay China's progress \r\ntowards disease reduction by almost 9% under RCP8.5 (Hodges et al., \r\n2014). Disruptions in the drinking water supply can lead to increased \r\nhousehold water storage, potentially increasing vector larvae breeding \r\nhabitats (see Section  3.6.3). In combination with the projected \r\nexpansion of vector ranges given climate change (Liu-Helmersson et al., \r\n2019), there is the potential for increased risk of vector-borne disease \r\nduring periods of water shortage or natural disasters (Section 4.3.3)"


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" \r\nMoreover, energy requirements for water and wastewater treatment \r\nare indirectly responsible for GHG emissions, while the breakdown of \r\nexcreta contributes directly to emissions (Box 4.5, Section 4.7.6). These \r\ncontributions need to be better articulated and accounted for as part of \r\nthe WaSH and climate change dialogue (Dickin et al., 2020)."


id: 17c831da0f7d0e5075673eef67e2832f
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content:
"Waterborne diseases result from complex causal relationships between \r\nclimatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that are not fully \r\nunderstood or modelled (Boholm and Prutzer, 2017) (high confidence). \r\nWaSH-related health risks are related to extreme events, harmful \r\nalgal blooms and WaSH practices (Chapter 7 WGII 7.3.2). In addition, \r\nchanges in thermotolerance and chlorine resistance of certain viruses \r\nhave been observed in laboratory experiments simulating different \r\ntemperatures and sunlight conditions (Carratala et al., 2020), increasing \r\npotential health risks even where traditional water treatment exists \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014) (low confidence). Studies show that \r\ndegraded water quality increases the willingness to pay for clean \r\nwater regardless of national economic status"


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" However, payment for \r\nclean, potable water, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, \r\ncan represent a significant percentage of people's income, limiting \r\neconomic well-being and the possibility for re-investment in other \r\nlivelihoods or activities (Constantine et al., 2017; van Houtven et al., \r\n2017; Price et al., 2019)."


id: 596abddf4c9193f943ac16649d72f295
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"Collectively, drinking water treatment, sanitation and hygiene interrupt \r\ndisease transmission pathways, particularly for water-related diseases. \r\nHowever, WaSH systems themselves are vulnerable to extreme events \r\n(Section 4.3.3). For example, sewage overflows resulting from heavy \r\nrainfall events are expected to increase waterborne disease outbreaks \r\n(Khan et al., 2015). High diarrhoeal disease burdens mean that small \r\nchanges in climate-associated risk are projected to have significant \r\nimpacts on disease burdens (Levy et  al., 2018). For example, up to \r\n2.2 million more cases of E. coli by 2100 in Bangladesh under a 2.1degC \r\nGWL are projected (Philipsborn et al., 2016), while up to an 11-fold \r\nand 25-fold increase by 2050 and 2080, respectively, under a 2-4degC \r\nGWL, in disability-adjusted life years, associated with cryptosporidiosis \r\nand giardiasis in Canada is projected (Smith et al., 2015)"


id: 681f3a1e656f6816d9e321584be74d4
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" In addition, \r\nan additional 48,000 deaths of children under 15 years of age globally \r\nfrom diarrhoea by 2030 are also projected (WHO, 2014). Notably, high "


id: d4c580315fb821c760d330200cc0599d
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"In nearly a third of the world's largest cities, water demand may exceed \r\nsurface water availability by 2050, based on RCP6.0 projections and \r\nthe WaterGAP3 modelling framework (Florke et al., 2018). Under all \r\nSSPs, the global volume of domestic water withdrawal is projected to \r\nreach 700-1500 km3 yr-1 by 2050, indicating an increase of 50 to 250%, \r\ncompared to the 2010 water use intensity (400-450 km3 yr-1) (Wada \r\net  al., 2016). Increasing water demand by cities is already spurring \r\ncompetition between cities and agricultural users for water, which is \r\nexpected to continue (Garrick et al., 2019) (Section 4.5.1). By 2030, \r\nSouth and Southeast Asia are expected to have almost three quarters \r\nof the urban land under high-frequency flood risk (10.4.6). South Asia, \r\nSouth America and mid-latitudinal Africa are projected have the largest \r\nurban extents exposed to floods and droughts (Guneralp et al., 2015)"


id: 74847dfd7e1dbfa600852c2591f76cf6
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" \r\nAn analysis of 571 European cities from the Urban Audit database \r\n(using RCP8.5 projections without assessing urban heat island effects) "


id: cf1a5106d8db8de11e3e2f1955784968
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"Globally, climate change is projected to exacerbate existing challenges \r\nfor urban water services. These challenges include population growth, \r\nthe rapid pace of urbanisation and inadequate investment, particularly \r\nin less developed economies with limited governance capacity (high \r\nconfidence) (Ceola et  al., 2016; van Leeuwen et  al., 2016; Reckien \r\net al., 2017; Tapia et al., 2017; Veldkamp et al., 2017). More specifically, \r\nin Arusha (Tanzania), a combination of urban growth modelling, \r\nsatellite imagery and groundwater modelling projected that rapid \r\nurbanisation would reduce groundwater recharge by 23-44% of 2015 \r\nlevels by 2050 (under business as usual and an RCP8.5 scenario), \r\ncausing groundwater levels to drop up to 75 m (Olarinoye et  al., \r\n2020). Flood risk modelling showed a median increase in flood risk \r\nof 183% in 2030 based on baseline conditions in Jakarta (Indonesia) \r\nwith flood risks increasing by up to 45% due to land use changes \r\nalone (Budiyono et al"


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", 2016). A probabilistic analysis of surface water \r\nflood risk in London (UK) using the UKCP09 Weather Generator (with \r\n10th and 90th percentile uncertainty bounds) found that the annual \r\ndamage is expected to increase from the baseline by 101% and 128% \r\nunder 2030 and 2050 high-emission scenarios, respectively (Jenkins \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 63b5eb2383e99d7dca626bd6d6a726fb
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content:
"Modified streamflow is projected to affect the amount and variability \r\nof inflow to urban storage reservoirs (high confidence), which may ex\u0002acerbate existing challenges to urban reservoir capacity, such as sed\u0002imentation and poor water quality (Goharian et al., 2016; Howard et al., \r\n2016; Yasarer and Sturm, 2016). For example, in Melbourne (Australia), \r\na combination of stochastic hydro-climatological modelling, rainfall\u0002runoff modelling and climate model data projects a mean precipitation \r\nshift over catchments by -2% at 1.5degC and -3.3% at 2degC, relative to \r\n1961-1990. Considering an annual water demand of 0.75 of the mean \r\nyearly inflow, the median water supply shortage risk was calculated to \r\nbe 0.6% and 2.9% at 1.5degC and 2degC warming levels, respectively. At \r\nthe higher demand level of 0.85 of the mean annual inflow, the median \r\nwater shortage risk is higher, between 9.6% and 20.4% at 1"


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"5degC and \r\n2degC warming, respectively, without supply augmentation desalination \r\n(Henley et al., 2019)."


id: 6261f63d3a3de78671e9a353d278f1
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"These are several examples of such projected changes. Due to higher \r\nwater temperatures, changes in macroinvertebrates and fish are \r\nprojected under all future warming scenarios (Mantyka-Pringle et al., \r\n2014). Decreased abundance of many fish species, such as salmonids, \r\nunder higher temperatures, is also projected, although the effects \r\nbetween species are variable (Myers et  al., 2017). Poleward and \r\nshifts of freshwater species are projected as they try to stay within \r\npreferred cooler environmental conditions (Pecl et  al., 2017). Other \r\nanticipated changes include physiological adjustments with impacts \r\non morphology with some species shrinking in body size because \r\nlarge surface-to-volume ratios are generally favoured under warmer \r\nconditions (Scheffers et al"


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", 2016) and changes in species communities \r\nand food webs as a consequence of increases in metabolic rates in \r\nresponse to increased temperatures with the flow-on effects for \r\nmany ecosystem processes (Woodward et al., 2010). Changes in the \r\nseasonality of flow regimes and variability (Bloschl et  al., 2019b) \r\nand more intermittent flows (Pyne and Poff, 2017) are also projected \r\nand could result in decreased food chain lengths through the loss of \r\nlarge-bodied top predators (Sabo et al., 2010) and changes in nutrient \r\nloadings and water quality (Woodward et al., 2010). The impacts on \r\nfreshwater systems in drylands are projected to be more severe (Jaeger \r\net al., 2014; Gudmundsson et al., 2016). Changes to snow and glacier \r\nmelting, including the complete melting of some glaciers (Leadley "


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"et al., 2014; Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017), are projected to reduce water \r\navailability and cause declines in biodiversity in high altitudes through \r\nlocal extirpations and species extinctions in regions of high endemism. \r\nLake nutrient dynamics are expected to change, for example, at \r\n2degC warming, and net increase in CH4 emissions by 101-183% in \r\nhypereutrophic lakes and 47-56% in oligotrophic lakes in Europe are \r\nprojected (Sepulveda-Jauregui et al., 2018). Similarly, under the high\u0002GHG emission scenario, lake stratification is projected to begin 22.0 \r\n+- 7.0 d earlier and end 11.3 +- 4.7 d later by the end of this century \r\n(Woolway et al., 2021)"


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" While overall future trends on climate change \r\non freshwater species and habitats are largely negative, evidence \r\nindicates that different species are projected to respond at different \r\nrates, with interactions between species expected to be disrupted and \r\nwhich may result in novel biological communities and rapid change in \r\necological processes and functions (Pecl et al., 2017)."


id: ab9ed267e6e18a0ba3bd8c97724c75fa
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"In general, the projected population growth in at-risk areas, especially \r\nin low-income countries, is expected to increase future migration \r\nand displacement (McLeman et  al., 2016; Rigaud et  al., 2018). For \r\nexample, a study looking at potential flood exposure found that low\u0002income countries, particularly in Africa, are at higher risk for flood\u0002induced displacement (Kakinuma et  al., 2020). One model, focusing \r\non slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, crop failure \r\nand sea level rise, projected between 31-72 million people (RCP2.6, \r\nSSP4) and 90-143 million people (RCP8.5, SSP4) internally displaced \r\nby 2050 in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America (Rigaud \r\net  al., 2018). Another estimate, incorporating temperature increase \r\nand precipitation, projects that asylum applications to the EU could \r\nincrease by between 0.098 million (RCP4.5) and 0.66 million (RCP8"


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"5) \r\nyr-1, as a consequence of temperature increases in agricultural areas \r\nof low-income countries (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017) (limited \r\nevidence; medium agreement)."


id: 3b20fe40167fa518a156a318263668c4
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"Anthropogenic climate change has impacted every aspect of the water \r\ncycle (Section  4.2), and risks are projected to intensify with every \r\ndegree of global warming (Section 4.4), with impacts already visible in \r\nall sectors of the economy and ecosystems (Section 4.3) and projected \r\nto intensify further (Section  4.5). In response to climate- and non\u0002climate-induced water insecurity, people and governments worldwide \r\nare undertaking various adaptation responses across all sectors. In \r\naddition, there are several projected studies for future adaptation \r\nresponses. We draw upon a list of 359 case studies of observed \r\nadaptation and 45  articles on projected future adaptation. Further \r\ninformation on selection and inclusion criteria is available in SM4.2. \r\nIn this section, we document those adaptation responses (current \r\nand future) in different water use sectors. In the next (Sections 4.7.1, \r\n4.7.2, 4.7"


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"(b) Assessment result of all variables. For each region, physical changes, impacts on ecosystems and impacts on human systems are shown. For physical changes, upward/\r\ndownward triangles refer to an increase/decrease, respectively, in the amount or frequency of the measured variable, and the level of confidence refers to confidence that the change \r\nhas occurred. For impacts on ecosystems and human systems, plus or minus marks depict whether an observed impact of hydrological change is positive (beneficial) or negative \r\n(adverse), respectively, to the given system, and the level of confidence refers to confidence in attributing an impact on that system to a climate-induced hydrological change. The \r\nhydrological impact may be different to the overall change in the system; for example, over much of the world, crop yields have increased overall, largely for non-climatic reasons, \r\nbut in some areas, hydrological impacts of climate change are countering this"


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" Circles indicate that within that region, both increase and decrease of physical changes are found, \r\nbut are not necessarily equal; the same holds for cells showing 'both' assessed impacts. Cells assigned 'n.a.' indicates variables not assessed due to limited evidences. Decrease \r\n(increase) in water quality refers to adverse (positive) change in quality. Agriculture refers to impacts on crop production. Note: Energy refers to impacts on hydro and thermoelectric \r\npower generation. Ecosystems refers to impacts on freshwater ecosystem."


id: fbc16a64bd09fd263bc6e1ef6ebabc7e
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"Increasing hydrological extremes also have consequences for the \r\nmaintenance and further improvement of the provision of WaSH \r\nservices (medium confidence). Risks related to the lack or failure of \r\nWaSH services under climate change include increased incidence \r\nand outbreaks of water-related diseases, physical injuries, stress, \r\nexacerbation of the underlying disease, and risk of violence, which \r\nis often gendered (Section  4.5.3). Although globally, the regional \r\npotential infestation areas for disease-carrying vectors could be five \r\ntimes higher at 4degC than at 2degC (Liu-Helmersson et al., 2019), climate \r\nprojections suggest up to 2.2 million more cases of E. coli by 2100 (2.1degC \r\nincrease) in Bangladesh (Philipsborn et al., 2016), up to an 11-fold and \r\n25-fold increase by 2050 and 2080, respectively (2degC-4degC increase), \r\nin disability-adjusted life years associated with cryptosporidiosis and \r\ngiardiasis in Canada (Smith et  al"


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", 2015), and an additional 48,000 \r\ndeaths of children under 15 years of age globally from diarrhoea by \r\n2030 (WHO, 2014)."


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"Small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages (high confidence) (Holding et al., 2016; Pearce et al., \r\n2018; Gheuens et al., 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020). Freshwater supply systems vary from household or small community systems such \r\nas rainwater harvesting systems and private wells to large public water supply systems using surface, groundwater and, in some cases, \r\ndesalinated water (Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Falkland and White, 2020). In many cases, communities rely on more than one water \r\nsource, including a strong reliance on rainwater and groundwater (Elliott et al., 2017; MacDonald et al., 2020). Groundwater resources \r\nin freshwater lenses (FWLs) are essential in providing access to freshwater resources, especially during droughts when the collected \r\nrainwater is insufficient (Barkey and Bailey, 2017; Bailey et al., 2018), leading to greater risks of water-borne diseases, with significant \r\neffects on nutrition (Elliott et al"


id: 697adfe48de836c177d11c8825898a20
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", 2017; Savage et al., 2020), and improper sanitation poses additional risks to the limited groundwater \r\nresources (MacDonald et al., 2017). Drought events have also severely affected FWL recharge (Barkey and Bailey, 2017), with extraction \r\nrates further threatening available groundwater volumes (Post et al., 2018). In conjunction with sea level rise, this poses serious risks to \r\ngroundwater salinisation (Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Storlazzi et al., 2018; Deng and Bailey, 2019). In addition, FWLs are threatened \r\nby climate change due to changes in rainfall patterns, extended droughts and wash-over events caused by storm surges and sea level \r\nrise (high confidence) (see Chapter 15) (Chui and Terry, 2015; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018a; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Post et al., 2018; \r\nStorlazzi et al., 2018; Deng and Bailey, 2019). After small-scale wash over events, the FWLs have been shown to recover to pre-wash over \r\nsalinity levels within a month (Oberle et al., 2017)."


id: 3e56d9832c99fe889000ff3304e41ef4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Due to wash-over events exacerbated by sea level rise and lens thinning due to pumping, recovery time for FWLs is projected to take \r\nsubstantially longer (Oberle et al., 2017; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018a; Storlazzi et al., 2018). Projections indicate that atolls may be unable \r\nto provide domestic freshwater resources due to the lack of potable groundwater by 2030 (RCP8.5+ ice-sheet collapse), 2040 (RCP8.5) or \r\nthe 2060s (RCP4.5) (Storlazzi et al., 2018). Projections of future freshwater availability in small islands further underline these substantial \r\nrisks to island water security (Karnauskas et al., 2016; Karnauskas et al., 2018). Population growth, changes in rainfall patterns and \r\nagricultural demand are projected to increase water stress in small islands (Gohar et al., 2019; Townsend et al., 2020)"


id: 1884ec3a0095f2d7982f6768df2653a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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" While some islands \r\nare projected to experience an increase in rainfall patterns, this may refer to shorter intense rainfall events, thereby increasing the risk \r\nof flooding during the wet season, while not decreasing their risk of droughts during dry periods (Aladenola et al., 2016; Gheuens et al., \r\n2019). In addition, projected shifts in the timing of the rainfall season might pose an additional risk for water supply systems (Townsend \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 5f71024cc3236ea7059eaf17021592f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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"Observed adaptation during drought events includes community water sharing (Bailey et al., 2018; Pearce et al., 2018) as well as using \r\nalternative water resources such as water purchased from private companies (Aladenola et al., 2016), desalination units (Cashman and \r\nYawson, 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020) or accessing deeper or new groundwater resources (Pearce et al., 2018). Rainwater harvesting to \r\nadapt the water supply system in the Kingston Basin in Jamaica was able to significantly alleviate water stress, for example. Still, it would \r\nnot fill the total supply gap caused by climate change (Townsend et al., 2020). Likewise, groundwater sustainability with increasing climate \r\nchange in Barbados cannot be ensured without aquifer protection, leading to higher optimised food prices if no additional adaptation \r\nmeasures are implemented (Gohar et al., 2019)"


id: dd6b34a86afa901585813de114e3086c
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content:
" The potential of using multiple water sources is rarely assessed in future water supply \r\nprojections in small islands (Elliott et al., 2017). In the Republic of Marshall Islands, more than half of all interviewed households have \r\nalready had to migrate once due to a water shortage (MacDonald et al., 2020). In Cariacou, Grenada, increases in migration rates have \r\nbeen observed following drought events (Cashman and Yawson, 2019). with long-term cross border and internal migration shown to be \r\nhaving significant impacts on well-being, community-cohesion, livelihoods and people-land relationships (Yates et al., 2021)."


id: 694a74354712f384ca561f9b3d2239c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"There is high confidence that water-related adaptation is occurring in \r\nthe agricultural sector (Acevedo et  al., 2020; Ricciardi et  al., 2020), \r\nand water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector makes up \r\nthe majority of documented local, regional and global evidence of \r\nimplemented adaptation (high confidence) (Section 4.7.1, Figure 4.23 \r\nand Figure 4.24, Table 4.8). However, while there is increasing evidence \r\nof adaptation and its benefits across multiple dimensions, the link \r\nbetween adaptation benefits and climate risk reduction is unclear due \r\nto methodological challenges (medium confidence) (Section 4.7.1). On \r\nthe other hand, while it is methodologically possible to measure the \r\neffectiveness of future adaptation in reducing climate risks, the main \r\nlimitation here is that not all possible ranges of future adaptations \r\ncan be modelled given the limitations of climate and impact models \r\n(high confidence) (Section  4.7.2)"


id: 7d9d1436755ced98043a49bc1ef5992
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content:
" Furthermore, findings on current \r\nadaptation are constrained by what is documented in peer-reviewed \r\narticles. At the same time, there may be a range of options implemented \r\non the ground by local governments or as a part of corporate social \r\nresponsibility that is not published in peer-reviewed publications."


id: f281cb4c335b887256aaba53fdb8e619
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture (includes \r\nimproved cultivars and agronomic practices) have proven to increase \r\nsoil carbon, yields and technical efficiency (Penot et  al., 2018; Salat \r\nand Swallow, 2018; Ho and Shimada, 2019; Makate and Makate, 2019; \r\nOkunlola et al., 2019). Some water-related measures in conservation \r\nagriculture include allowing for shading and soil moisture retention, \r\nwith the co-benefit of reducing pest attacks (Thierfelder et al., 2015; \r\nRaghavendra and Suresh, 2018; Islam et  al., 2019a). Especially for \r\ntraditional food grains in small-holder agriculture, improved practices \r\nsuch as modern varieties or integrated nutrient management can play \r\nan important role in making production more resilient to climate stress \r\n(Handschuch and Wollni, 2016). This measure is also among the top four \r\nmost frequent adaptation measures in all continents except Australia \r\nand North America (Figure 4.27)"


id: dea39cb5c89fe5585070e388daf71680
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content:
" In addition, this measure is shown to \r\nhave positive economic benefits (high confidence) and also benefits \r\non other parameters (medium confidence) (Figure  FAQ4.4.1). Such \r\napproaches are also among those most frequently assessed for their \r\neffectiveness in addressing future climate change, but show limited \r\neffectiveness across warming levels (Figure 4.28 and Figure 4.29)."


id: a1308cdd0d81bdee730904477ed4fb75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Water and soil conservation measures (e.g., reduced tillage, contour \r\nridges or mulching) are frequently documented as adaptation responses \r\nto reduce water-related climate impacts (Kimaro et  al., 2016; Traore \r\net al., 2017). This measure features in all continents' top four adaptation \r\nresponses except Australasia (Figure  4.27). Especially for rain-fed \r\nfarming, which currently is the norm in most of Africa, large parts of \r\nCentral and South America and Europe, water and soil conservation \r\nmeasures and various components of conservation agriculture are some \r\nof the most frequently used adaptation responses (Jat et  al., 2019). \r\nThis measure is deemed to have economic benefits and benefits for \r\nvulnerable communities who adopt this measure (high confidence) \r\nand benefits in terms of water saving and positive ecological and \r\nsociocultural benefits (medium confidence)"


id: 70d1921f36195b56c6ce4fe4602a005a
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" However, this measure can \r\nbe sometimes maladaptive (low evidence, medium agreement) and can \r\nhave mitigation co-benefits (low evidence, high agreement) (Figure 4.29). \r\nFurthermore, water- and soil management-related measures show high \r\npotential efficacy in reducing impacts in a 1.5degC world, with declining \r\neffectiveness at higher levels of warming (Figure 4.28 and Figure 4.29)"


id: 8cf4fbf8826b1949468d2532cc63c6f8
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content:
"The use of non-conventional water sources, that is, desalinated and \r\ntreated waste water, is emerging as an important component of \r\nincreasing water availability for agriculture (DeNicola et  al., 2015; \r\nMartinez-Alvarez et al., 2018b; Morote et al., 2019). While desalination \r\nhas a high potential in alleviating agricultural water stress in arid \r\ncoastal regions, proper management and water quality standards \r\nfor desalinated irrigation water are essential to ensure continued \r\nor increased crop productivity. In addition to the energy intensity \r\n(Section 4.7.6), risks of desalinated water include lower mineral content, \r\nhigher salinity, crop toxicity and soil sodicity (Martinez-Alvarez et al., \r\n2018b). Similarly, waste-water reuse can be an important contribution \r\nto buffer against the increasing variability of water resources"


id: eebf2ac8bbdbb823e90b27c0945c19ea
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content:
" However, \r\nwaste-water guidelines that ensure the adequate treatment to reduce \r\nadverse health and environmental outcomes due to pathogens or \r\nother chemical and organic contaminants will be essential (Angelakis \r\nand Snyder, 2015; Dickin et al., 2016) (Box 4.5; 4.6.4)."


id: 2d25048327066da528e149d93a8f14a6
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content:
"Policies, institutions and capacity building are important adaptation \r\nmeasures in agriculture and often have beneficial outcomes, but the \r\nquality of studies precludes a high degree of certainty about those \r\nimpacts (Figure  FAQ4.4.1). Access to credits, subsidies or insurance \r\nbuilds an important portfolio of reducing reliance on agricultural \r\nincome alone (Rahut and Ali, 2017; Wossen et al., 2018). Training and \r\ncapacity building are essential tools to ensure effective adaptation in \r\nagriculture, increasing food security (Chesterman et al., 2019; Makate \r\nand Makate, 2019). Through better understanding, the implementation \r\nof available responses reduces exposure to climate impacts. In \r\naddition, public regulations, including water policies and allocations \r\nand incentive instruments, and availability of appropriate finance \r\nplay an essential role in shaping and enabling (Sections 4.8.5, 4.8.6, \r\n4.8.7), but also limiting (Section 4.8"


id: 6f3dd10fa062acf94120de69e022b23f
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content:
"Diversifying energy portfolios to reduce water-related impacts on \r\nthe energy sector is another effective adaptation strategy with high \r\nmitigation co-benefits. A modelling study from Europe shows that \r\nfor a 3degC scenario, an energy mix with an 80% share of renewable \r\nenergy can potentially reduce the overall negative impacts on the \r\nenergy sector by a factor of 1.5  times or more (Tobin et  al., 2018). \r\nIn addition, hydropower can also play a role in compensating for the \r\nintermittency of other renewable energies (Francois et al., 2014). For \r\nexample, integrating hydro, solar and wind power in energy generation \r\nstrategies in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can potentially \r\ndeliver multiple benefits, including decarbonisation, compliance with \r\nenvironmental flow norms and reduce potential conflicts among Nile \r\nriparian countries (Sterl et al., 2021). Furthermore, reducing the share \r\nof thermoelectric power with solar and wind energy (Tobin et al"


id: ae5f0d060c9482fc3e9c9bd66b000ef
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content:
", 2018; \r\nArango-Aramburo et al., 2019; Emodi et al., 2019) can be synergistic \r\nfrom both climate and water perspectives, as solar and wind energy \r\nhave lower water footprints (high confidence)."


id: 85337ca19a3591098211932961e4480f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Irrigation has consistently been used as a crop protection and yield enhancement strategy and has become even more critical in a \r\nwarming world (Siebert et al., 2014). Approximately 40% of global yields come from irrigated agriculture, with a doubling of irrigated \r\nareas over the last 50 years and now constituting around 20% of the total harvested area (FAO, 2018b; Meier et al., 2018; Rosa et al., \r\n2020b). Thus, irrigation is one of the most frequently applied adaptation responses in agriculture and features centrally in projections of \r\nadaptation at all scales. Expansions of irrigated areas over the coming century are projected, leading to shifts from rain-fed to irrigated \r\nagriculture in response to climate change (Malek and Verburg, 2018; Huang et al., 2019; Nechifor and Winning, 2019). However, there \r\nare regional limitations to this expansion due to renewable water resource limitations, including water quality issues (Zaveri et al., 2016; \r\nTurner et al., 2019)"


id: ebb0c42213a97e4f37d5182777ddfa1e
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" Depending on the specific spatial, temporal and technological characteristics of irrigation expansion, up to 35% of \r\ncurrent rain-fed production could sustainably shift to irrigation with limited negative environmental effects (Rosa et al., 2020b)."


id: 2ef4aae36ad7f97de0c9ed8f2b2f7b2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Irrigation increases resilience and productivity relative to rain-fed production by reducing drought and heat stress on crop yields and by \r\nlowering ET demand by cooling canopy temperatures (Siebert et al., 2014; Tack et al., 2017; Li and Troy, 2018; Zaveri and B. Lobell, 2019; \r\nAgnolucci et al., 2020; Rosa et al., 2020b). Large-scale irrigation also affects local and regional climates (Cook et al., 2020b). While cooling \r\neffects, including reduction of the extreme heat due to irrigation, have been observed (Qian et al., 2020; Thiery et al., 2020), increases in \r\nhumid heat extremes because of irrigation with potentially detrimental health outcomes have also been reported (Krakauer et al., 2020; \r\nMishra et al., 2020). For the heavily irrigated North China Plain, a night-time temperature increase overcompensated daytime cooling \r\neffects, leading to an overall warming effect (Chen and Jeong, 2018)"


id: c7d1427e87cdbbaff029d3a6624604e5
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content:
" In addition, modification of rainfall patterns has been linked to \r\nirrigation (Alter et al., 2015; Kang and Eltahir, 2019; Mathur and AchutaRao, 2020). For example, increases in extreme rainfall in central \r\nIndia in recent decades has been linked to the intensification of irrigated paddy cultivation in northwest India (Devanand et al., 2019)."


id: 3e373c24c42e7e192949220516ee0b7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Different irrigation techniques are associated with significant differences in irrigation water productivity (Deligios et  al., 2019), and \r\nreplacing inefficient systems can reduce average non-beneficial water consumption by up to 76% while maintaining stable crop yields \r\n(Jagermeyr et al., 2015). Several adjustments can improve water use efficiency, including extending irrigation intervals, shortening the \r\ntime of watering crops or reducing the size of the plot being irrigated (Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; da Cunha et al., 2015; Dumenu and \r\nObeng, 2016). Deficit irrigation is an important mechanism for improving water productivity (Zheng et al., 2018) and increasing regional \r\ncrop production under drying conditions (Malek and Verburg, 2018). Access to irrigation can also play a role in alleviating poverty, \r\ncontributing to reducing vulnerability and risks (Balasubramanya and Stifel, 2020)"


id: b50068d9ef682e8709c9fc8db25cb966
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content:
" However, the diversity of irrigation-related techniques \r\nand the consequent differences in effect and water-use intensity is often underreported (Vanschoenwinkel and Van Passel, 2018)."


id: 50586ba742cba6f0bfe30d9ea15f8eb1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 10088
content:
"Asia accounts for 69-73% of the world's irrigated area. However, irrigation currently plays a relatively minor role in most of Africa, except in \r\nthe contiguous irrigated area along the Nile basin and North Africa and South Africa (Meier et al., 2018). In India, long-term data (1956-1999) \r\non the irrigated area shows that farmers adjust their irrigation investments and crop choices in response to medium-run rainfall variability \r\n(Taraz, 2017). da Cunha et al. (2015) report that farmers' income tends to be higher on irrigated lands in Brazil. In Bangladesh, farmers invest \r\na part of their increased incomes in improving irrigation access (Delaporte and Maurel, 2018). The severity of drought increases the likelihood \r\nof farmers adopting supplementary irrigation in Bangladesh (Alauddin and Sarker, 2014). In Vietnam, irrigation improvement had the highest \r\npositive impact on crop yield among all farm-level adaptive practices (Ho and Shimada, 2019)"


id: 76b30d0083b9d79baa009c4cbafadd57
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content:
" In South Africa, access to irrigation was one of \r\nthe most important predictors of whether or not farmers would adopt a whole suite of other adaptation responses (Samuel and Sylvia, 2019)."


id: 5fc290023a455ee07d263773a148911b
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"In light of the volume of irrigated agriculture globally, and the projected increase in water requirements for food production, increasing \r\nwater productivity and thus improving the ratio of water used per unit of agricultural output is necessary globally to meet agricultural \r\nwater demand (Section  4.5.1) (Jagermeyr et  al., 2015; Jagermeyr et  al., 2017). For example, assuming a doubling of global maize \r\nproduction by 2050 increased water productivity could reduce total water consumption compared to the baseline productivity by 20-\r\n60% (Zheng et al., 2018). Under economic optimisation assumptions, shifts towards less water-intensive and less climate-sensitive crops \r\nwould be optimal in terms of water use efficiency and absolute yield increases; however, this could pose risks to food security as \r\nproduction shifts away from main staple crops (Nechifor and Winning, 2019)"


id: 9bfe891a5b9bc297147be640c202c03c
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content:
" Shifting currently rain-fed production areas to irrigation will \r\nbe an important element in ensuring food security with increasing temperatures, though investment in storage capacities to buffer \r\nseasonal water shortage will be essential to ensure negative environmental impacts are minimised (Rosa et al., 2020b)."


id: 4a69e0a7fe2fd8f2fa99a204a71a72f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 9110
content:
"Effective adaptation strategies include protecting source water and \r\nmanaging both water supply and demand. Source water protection \r\n(Shaffril et al., 2020) has proven effective in reducing contamination. \r\nImproved integrated (urban) water resources management (Kirshen \r\net al., 2018; Tosun and Leopold, 2019) and governance (Chu, 2017; \r\nMiller et al., 2020) and enhanced ecosystem management (Adhikari \r\net  al., 2018b) lead to policies and regulations that reduce water \r\ninsecurity and, when developed appropriately, reduce inequities \r\n(medium confidence). Supply (source) augmentation, including dams, \r\nstorage and rainwater/fog harvesting, can increase the supply or \r\nreliability of water for drinking, sanitation and hygiene (DeNicola \r\net  al., 2015; Pearson et  al., 2015; Majuru et  al., 2016; Poudel and \r\nDuex, 2017; Lucier and Qadir, 2018; Goodrich et  al., 2019) (high \r\nconfidence)"


id: 47e72f0387637b831e427977a9ea1e93
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" For example, rainwater harvesting in an Inuit community \r\nincreased water for hygiene by 17%, reduced water retrieval efforts \r\nby 40% and improved psychological and financial health (Mercer \r\nand Hanrahan, 2017). However, climate change impacts will affect \r\namounts of rainwater available. A recent study concluded that \r\ndomestic water demand met through rainwater harvesting generally \r\nimproves under climate change scenarios for select communities \r\nin Canada and Uganda, with the exception of drier summers in \r\nsome areas of Canada (Schuster-Wallace et  al., 2021). Further, it \r\nis important to recognise that many of these interventions require \r\nfinancial investments that make them inaccessible to the poorest \r\n(Eakin et  al., 2016). Demand for water can be decreased through \r\nreductions in water loss from the system (e.g., pipe leakage) (Orlove \r\net  al., 2019) and water conservation measures (Duran-Encalada \r\net al., 2017) (medium confidence)."


id: 40a4f81263d260abbcad08c7a0be84f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 7547
content:
"Access to appropriate, reliable WaSH protects against water-related \r\ndiseases, particularly after climate hazards such as heavy rainfalls and \r\nfloods (Carlton et al., 2014; Jones et al., 2020). WaSH interventions have \r\nbeen demonstrated to reduce diarrhoea risk by 25-75% depending \r\non the specific intervention (Wolf et  al., 2018) (high confidence). \r\nConversely, inadequate WaSH is associated with an estimated annual \r\nloss of 50 million daily adjusted life years (Pruss-Ustun et al., 2019), \r\nof which 89% of deaths are due to diarrhoea, and 8% of deaths from \r\nacute respiratory infections (Chapter 7 WGII 7.3.2), making universal \r\naccess to WaSH (i.e., achievement of SDG 6.1, 6.2) a critical adaptation \r\nstrategy (high confidence). However, not all WaSH solutions are suited \r\nto all climate conditions (Sherpa et  al., 2014; Howard et  al., 2016), \r\nso health outcome improvements are not always sustained under \r\nchanging climate impacts (Dey et al"


id: bf9499d40bf14c0bc8c63eb2abb2fe7
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content:
", 2019) (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). As such, WaSH infrastructure also needs to be climate\u0002resilient (Smith et al., 2015; Shah et al., 2020). In addition to new WaSH \r\ninfrastructure design and implementation, expansion and replacement \r\nof existing infrastructure offer opportunities to implement climate\u0002resilient designs and reduce greenhouse emissions (Boholm and \r\nPrutzer, 2017; Dickin et al., 2020) (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 288880607d42059d58e36c493f939187
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"(1.55) of mosquito larvae in water storage pots (Ferdousi et al., 2015), \r\nwhich could have even more significant impacts in the future given \r\nprojected range expansion for vectors as a result of climate change \r\n(Liu-Helmersson et al., 2019). Other unintended consequences include \r\npathogen contamination (Gwenzi et al., 2015) and time or financial \r\ntrade-offs (Schuster et al., 2020) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nWastewater reuse for irrigation may have adverse health impacts if \r\nwastewater is not treated (Dickin et al., 2016). Conversely, especially \r\nwhere women are responsible for domestic and productive water \r\nmanagement, adaptive agricultural water strategies, such as water\u0002efficient irrigation or low-water crops, mean that less water from finite \r\nwater supplies are used for agriculture, leaving more water locally \r\navailable for domestic purposes (see section 4.6.2)"


id: 19ba71dfda692a1ecbf4e9c9e1922ce1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" These co-benefits \r\nacross sectors become important community water stress adaptations \r\n(Chinwendu et al., 2017), with water savings from one use leading to \r\nmore water available for other uses. This can reduce domestic water \r\nburdens and, therefore, gender inequities (Section  4.8.3) (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement). Further analyses of co-benefits, particularly \r\nemploying a gender lens, are required to improve adaptation strategies \r\n(McIver et al., 2016)."


id: 29b68a68e5a6b3cdded745a9e91a5a8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3996
content:
"Compound disasters have arisen due to either the co-occurrence of drought, storms or floods and COVID-19. COVID-19 acts as a \r\nstress multiplier for women and girls in charge of water collection and minorities and disabled people who are not engaged in water \r\nmanagement (Phillips et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Lonebear et al., 2020). Across the world, existing inequalities deepened due to lockdowns, \r\nwhich further limited access to clean water and education for women and girls, and reinstated gendered responsibilities of child, elderly \r\nand sick care, which had been previously externalised (Cousins, 2020; Neal, 2020; Zavaleta-Cortijo et al., 2020). Accordingly, COVID-19 \r\nhas further steepened the path to reach SDGs 2, 3, 4, 5 and 11 (Lambert et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., 2020; Neal, 2020; Pramanik et al., \r\n2021). In addition, the pandemic exacerbated food insecurity in drought-affected eastern and southern Africa (Phillips et al., 2020; Mishra \r\net al., 2021)"


id: 722a4ab358665ed1961484a23e1c1eb4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" As the twin risk of COVID-19 and hurricanes on the US Gulf Coast (Pei et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020) and cyclone Amphan \r\nin Bangladesh (Pramanik et al., 2021) showed, increased hand washing, additional WaSH and evacuation and shelter infrastructures \r\nproved essential for preventing further spread of COVID-19 (Baidya et al., 2020; Ebrahim et al., 2020; Guo et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., \r\n2020; Pei et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020; Pramanik et al., 2021). Moreover, while immediate steps can be taken during disaster response \r\nto minimise climate-attributable loss of life, climate adaptation requires long-term strategies that intersect with pandemic preparedness \r\n(Phillips et al., 2020)."


id: 153b56cf1d84928350f23cbe513ea68f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"A systematic review of 132 academic papers and 32 articles from non\u0002peer-reviewed literature (Doswald et al., 2014) provided a comprehensive \r\nglobal overview of EbA, which showed that EbA interventions were \r\nused in various ecosystems, including inland wetlands (linked to 30 \r\npublications). An investigation of EbA effectiveness by Reid et  al. \r\n(2019), where nine case studies covering South Asia, Africa and South \r\nAmerica were associated with freshwater systems, concluded that \r\nEbA enabled the enhancement of the adaptive capacity or resilience \r\nto climate change, particularly for the more vulnerable groups in the \r\ncommunity. An assessment of the potential for EbA in three sub\u0002basins of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, concluded that EbA can \r\naugment catchment management practices but that there were also \r\ninstitutional challenges (Lukasiewicz et  al., 2016)"


id: b980c548437740b097402caaea9794a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26726
content:
" In urban settings, \r\nEbA has been associated with ecological structures for reducing risks, \r\nincluding the use of urban wetlands (Barkdull and Harris, 2019). EbA is \r\na subset of NbS that is rooted in climate change adaptation and covers \r\nboth mitigation and adaptation (Pauleit et  al., 2017) (Section  4.6.5, \r\nBox  4.6). Although adaptation measures for freshwater ecosystems \r\nhave been implemented in many places (Shaw et al., 2014; Lukasiewicz \r\net al., 2016; Karim and Thiel, 2017; Milman and Jagannathan, 2017; \r\nFAO, 2018a; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019b), the evidence base for the \r\neffectiveness of these measures to cope with changes in freshwater \r\necosystems needs improvement. These measures also require further \r\nfinancial support, mainstreaming across sectors and the scaling up of \r\nindividual measures (medium confidence)."


id: 7c7afc3d3046e33a0d586a3991225ebf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 17185
content:
"It is estimated that 380  billion m3\r\n of wastewater is produced annually worldwide, which equals about 15% of agricultural water \r\nwithdrawals. The recovery of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from wastewater can offset 13.4% of the global agriculture demand \r\nfor these nutrients (Jimenez and Asano, 2008; Fernandez-Arevalo et  al., 2017). Recycling human waste worldwide could satisfy an \r\nestimated 22% of the global demand for phosphorus (UN Water, 2017). It has been estimated that some 36 million ha worldwide (some \r\n12% of all irrigated land) reuse urban wastewater, mainly for irrigation. However, only around 15% is adequately treated (Thebo et al., \r\n2017), thus the need to invest in sustainable, low-cost wastewater treatment to protect public health. The irrigation potential of this \r\nvolume of wastewater stands at 42 million ha"


id: b23608cf6ddd3a460930f6a12a9c62fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25541
content:
" Wastewater production is expected to increase globally to 574 billion m3\r\n by 2050, a 51% \r\nincrease compared to 2015, mainly due to a growing urban population (Qadir et al., 2020). Water reuse with treated wastewater for \r\npotable and non-potable purposes can be practised in a manner that is protective of public health and the environment (WHO, 2006; \r\nWHO, 2017). For example, when implemented with sufficient treatment standards, the use of recycled water for the irrigation of crops is \r\nprotective of public health (Blaine et al., 2013; Paltiel et al., 2016), as was determined by an appointed panel of experts in the state of \r\nCalifornia (Cooper et al., 2012). However, there are several barriers to the adoption of wastewater reuse; these include technical barriers \r\nand public health aspects related to microbiological and pharmaceuticals risks (Jimenez and Asano, 2008; Jaramillo and Restrepo, 2017; \r\nSauri and Arahuetes, 2019)"


id: 48a92829a7be057da1d5e0ac6a562aa8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" These are currently being addressed by strengthening regulatory standards, with, for example, 11 out of 22 \r\nArab States adopting legislation permitting the use of treated wastewater (WHO, 2006; US EPA, 2017; WHO, 2017; EC, 2020). Benefits of \r\nwastewater reuse usually outweigh the costs (Stacklin, 2012; Hernandez-Sancho et al., 2015; UN Water, 2017)."


id: cd61dbb729937d186b2db096335cac8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Desalination is particularly important in arid and semiarid climates, coastal cities and small island states (Box 4.2). There were 16,000 \r\noperational desalination plants globally in 2017, with a daily desalinated water production of 95 million m3\r\n d-1 (IDA, 2020). In 2012, \r\ndesalinated water was equivalent to 0.6% of the global water supply, and 75.2 TWh of energy per year was used to generate desalinated \r\nwater; in other words, about 0.4% of the worldwide electricity consumption (IRENA, 2012). Unfortunately, only 1% of total desalinated \r\nwater uses renewable sources (IRENA, 2012; Amy et  al., 2017; Balaban, 2017; Martinez-Alvarez et  al., 2018a; Jones et  al., 2019) \r\n(Section 4.7.6). Desalination has already helped to meet urban and peri-urban water supply, particularly during annual or seasonal \r\ndrought events, with half of the world's desalination capacity in the Arab region (UN Environment, 2019; UN Water, 2021)"


id: bf27e4dee0286aa4ad79463dbe2a6a7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" In addition, \r\nseawater desalination could help address water scarcity in 146 (50%) large cities (including 12 (63.2%) megacities) (He et al., 2021). \r\nDesalination is also being adopted for irrigation. For example, in the island of Gran Canary (Spain), 30% of the agricultural surface area \r\nis irrigated with desalinated water to irrigate high-value crops (Burn et al., 2015; Martinez-Alvarez et al., 2018a; Monterrey-Vina et al., \r\n2020). The expected growth of desalination, if not coupled with renewable energy (RE), causes a projected 180% increase in carbon \r\nemissions by 2040 (GCWDA, 2015; Pistocchi et al., 2020). There have been advances in large-scale and on-farm renewable desalination \r\n(Abdelkareem et al., 2018). Using renewable energy to decarbonise desalination has meant that the projected global average levelled \r\ncost of water could decrease from EUR2.4 m-3 (2015) to approximately EUR1.05 m-3 by 2050, considering unsubsidised fossil fuel costs (Caldera \r\nand Breyer, 2020)"


id: b5cf9f17f4ccacabac71f7ea3e4a6e5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"There is high confidence that some Indigenous Peoples, local \r\ncommunities and traditional peoples could adapt, and are adapting \r\nto climate-driven hydrological changes and their impacts on culturally \r\nsignificant sites, species, ecosystems and practices in polar, high\u0002mountain and coastal areas, where sufficient funding, decision-making \r\npower and resourcing exist (e.g., Golden et al., 2015; Bunce et al., 2016; \r\nAnderson et al., 2018). However, there is also high confidence that there \r\nare significant structural barriers and limits to their adaptation, and \r\nthat the outcomes of some adaptation strategies can be uneven and \r\nmaladaptive (medium evidence, high agreement) (Sections 4.7.4; 4.8.3). \r\nThese barriers include the lack of recognition of Indigenous Peoples' \r\nsovereignty and exclusion of Indigenous Peoples from decision-making \r\ninstitutions (Ford et al., 2017; Labbe et al., 2017; Eira et al., 2018; McLeod \r\net al., 2018; MacDonald and Birchall, 2020) (14.4.4.2.2; 13.8.1"


id: bb7305a7f4ca63f19231ab7bd580bfa8
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"2). At the \r\nsame time, the rate and scale of climate change can impede the ability \r\nof vulnerable communities to turn their adaptive capacity into effective \r\nadaptation responses (Ford et al., 2015; Herman-Mercer et al., 2019)."


id: d91ba4b9a82e7a46d5c1fde8344279f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
"Spontaneous migration, undertaken without outside assistance, \r\nhas shown the potential to improve the resilience of migrants and \r\ncommunities (Call et  al., 2017; Jha et  al., 2018a), but may also lead \r\nto increased vulnerability and insecurity in some instances (Adger \r\net al., 2018; Linke et al., 2018a; Singh and Basu, 2020). Migration is \r\nnot a viable strategy for everyone, but age, gender and socioeconomic \r\nstatus play a significant role in encouraging or inhibiting the chances \r\nof successful migration (Maharjan et al., 2020; Bergmann et al., 2021; \r\nErwin et al., 2021). Migration has increased vulnerability among women \r\nand female-headed households (Patel and Giri, 2019), but has also \r\ntriggered gender-positive processes such as increased female school \r\nenrolment (Gioli et al., 2014) (medium confidence)"


id: 5783819787c91bd66eeedab2219ebaf7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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content:
" Remittances, that is, \r\ntransfers of money from migrants to beneficiaries in sending areas, may \r\nreduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity to climate-induced \r\nhydrological changes (Ng'ang'a et al., 2016; Jha et al., 2018b) (medium \r\nconfidence). Managed retreat refers to the planned and assisted \r\nmoving of people and assets away from risk areas, such as government\u0002or community-led resettlement (Hino et  al., 2017; Maldonado and \r\nPeterson, 2018; Tadgell et al., 2018; Arnall, 2019). Such initiatives may \r\nreduce exposure to risk (Lei et al., 2017). However, they often fail to \r\ninclude affected populations in the process and may lead to greater \r\nimpoverishment and increased vulnerability (Wilmsen and Webber, \r\n2015) (medium confidence)."


id: 387336c5fcb10ea009cc0db9a6af1d71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:17
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vector_id: 6257
content:
"There is high confidence that local people are adapting to the cultural \r\nimpacts of climate-driven glacier retreat and decline in snow cover \r\nand ice in polar and high-mountain areas. However, there is also high \r\nconfidence that such adaptation can be detrimental and disrupt local \r\ncultures. For example, in the Peruvian Andes, concerns about water \r\navailability for ritual purposes has led to restrictions on pilgrims' removal \r\nof ice and limiting the size of ritual candles to preserve the glacier \r\n(Paerregaard, 2013; Allison, 2015). Relatedly, some local people have \r\nquestioned the cosmological order and have reoriented their spiritual \r\nrelationships accordingly (Paerregaard, 2013; Carey et  al., 2017). In \r\nSiberia (Mustonen, 2015) and northern Finland (Turunen et al., 2016), \r\ncommunity-led decisions among herders favour alternative routing, \r\npasture areas and shifts in nomadic cycles in response to changing \r\nflood events and permafrost conditions (Box 13.2)"


id: c3af55f3a183a4cceb90561e69b20cb8
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" However, loss of \r\ngrazing land and pasture fragmentation pose adaptation limits, and \r\nsome strategies such as supplementary feeding and new technologies \r\nmay further affect cultural traditions of herding communities (Risvoll \r\nand Hovelsrud, 2016; Jaakkola et al., 2018)."


id: b1c2b16b946099fe10bd50837af1ba19
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content:
"Globally, structural measures for flood protection through hard infrastructure are the most common measures as they directly manage \r\nflood hazards by controlling flow through streams and prevent water overflow (Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Duzi et al., 2017). These \r\nmeasures include dikes, flood control gates, weirs, dams, storage and proper waste management (Barua et al., 2017; Egbinola et al., \r\n2017). Infrastructure measures require high maintenance, such as dredging and clearing channels and overpasses (Egbinola et al., 2017). \r\nA negative aspect of protective infrastructural measures is that, while they eliminate the hazard up to a certain magnitude (Di Baldassarre \r\net al., 2013), they also generate an illusion of no risk by diminishing frequent floods (Duzi et al., 2017; Logan et al., 2018)"


id: d9282b624e78efb50c6a4ab16668f25f
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content:
" In addition, specific \r\nengineering solutions that might be introduced from other localities without proper contextual adjustments may lead to maladaptation \r\n(Mycoo, 2014; Pritchard and Thielemans, 2014). NbS (Box 4.6) have shifted infrastructure measures from purely grey onto mixed engineering \r\nand environmental measures. Examples include SUDS, which aid in decreasing flow peaks and are affordable, aesthetically pleasing and \r\nsocially acceptable while also reducing heat and hence the production of storms (Chan et al., 2019) (Section 4.6.5)."


id: 1966de4825cd5140e95588d1bfb3f23f
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content:
"Non-structural or soft measures for flood adaptation include human actions that generate capacities, information and, therefore, \r\nawareness of floods (Du et al., 2020). Soft measures aim to integrate flood resilience within city management and planning (Wijaya, \r\n2015; Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Abbas et al., 2018). Social support between members of a community and economic mechanisms \r\nsuch as loans or remittances are soft measures that promote recovery or resilience to floods (Barua et al., 2017; Musah-Surugu et al., \r\n2018; Bott and Braun, 2019). Communities with heightened awareness and knowledge of floods are probably going to elect political \r\nleaders that will affect flood protection and policies that include adaptation (Abbas et al., 2018). Soft measures can be an anchoring \r\nfactor for policies that promote early warning systems, infrastructure, flood-resilient housing and environmental restoration (Andrew \r\nand Sauquet, 2017; Abbas et al., 2018)"


id: b37c34047d877fa7d4af86abe944e9de
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content:
" However, soft measures, especially at large scale, may also lead to maladaptation, such as lack \r\nof synchronisation between international, national and local levels (Hedelin, 2016; Lu, 2016; Jamero et al., 2017), and can further be \r\nhampered by bureaucracy (Pinto et al., 2018)."


id: a8398656c11264a238b826fc1c1e79d3
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content:
"We define an adaptation response as a water-related adaptation if the \r\nhazard is water-related (e.g., floods, droughts, extreme rainfall events, \r\ngroundwater depletion, melting and thawing of cryosphere, Figure 4.25) \r\nor the adaptation intervention is water-related (e.g., irrigation, rainwater \r\nharvesting, soil moisture conservation, etc.). Adaptation responses were \r\nimplemented across all water use sub-sectors assessed in this chapter \r\n(Section  4.6, Figure  4.23). Given the overall interest in assessing \r\nadaptations that documents outcomes, we limited our analysis to a set \r\nof 359 unique articles that measure outcomes of adaptation across pre\u0002defined outcome categories (SM4.2, Table SM4.5; Berrang-Ford et al., \r\n2021a; Mukherji et  al., 2021). A total of 1054 adaptation responses \r\nwere documented in the 359 case studies; these were categorised \r\ninto 16 categories (Figure  4.22)"


id: 676c114f3a9b5a008e4f7ed2e8bc038d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" These adaptation responses are not \r\nalways specific to long-term climate change impacts (that is, changes \r\nin annual mean fluxes), but rather respond to changes in variability \r\nin the water cycle and specific water hazards. Adaptation to internal \r\nvariability is needed to increase the resilience to projected water cycle \r\nchanges because water cycle changes primarily manifest as changes in \r\nvariability (Douville et al., 2021)."


id: b28284cad8d6dfd660df27baf3f3909d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 25602
content:
"The previous section documented adaptation responses in water use \r\nsectors we assess in this chapter (Section 4.6), and noted that in many \r\ninstances, effectiveness of those responses is not clear. While there \r\nare thousands of case studies of implemented adaptation responses \r\n(observed adaptation) to water insecurity, there is a lack of synthesised \r\nunderstanding about the effectiveness and benefits of adaptation \r\n(Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a) and whether or not those benefits also \r\ntranslate into climate risk reduction (Singh et al., 2021). In contrast, \r\nliterature on the effectiveness of future projected adaptation in reducing \r\nclimate risks is limited in number. Yet, even then, the findings are not \r\nsynthesised across various options to make an overall assessment of \r\nthe effectiveness of future projected adaptation. In this section, we \r\ndraw on two meta-review protocols (see SM4"


id: fb334027ef3c4dc25931dfc70bad1870
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content:
"2 for a description of \r\neach protocol) and assess the benefits of current adaptation and \r\neffectiveness of future projected adaptation in reducing climate risks. \r\nWe also assess limits to adaptation and trade-offs and synergies \r\nbetween adaptation and mitigation."


id: 6de336c92acc089eb3a8f5d51387e8a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"There is high confidence that a significant share of water-related \r\nadaptations is occurring in the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts \r\nfor 60-70% of total water withdrawals (Hanasaki et al., 2018; Burek \r\net al., 2020; Muller Schmied et al., 2021) and supports the livelihoods \r\nof a large majority of people in the developing countries. Within the \r\nagriculture sector, there is high confidence in the quality and quantity \r\nof evidence of adaptation responses such as improved cultivars and \r\nagronomic practices, on-farm irrigation and water management and \r\nwater and soil moisture conservation, and medium confidence, derived \r\nfrom robust evidence, and medium agreement for other most other \r\nadaptation responses (Figure  4.23 and Figure  4.24). Most of these \r\nadaptation case studies are from Asia and Africa, and agriculture is \r\nthe predominant sector where most of these adaptation responses \r\nare being implemented (high confidence) (Section  4.6.2)"


id: a1420980b1f907e7f3700bdcd1f23a1e
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content:
" However, \r\nthe sectoral nature of adaptation responses varies across continents. \r\nAgriculture is the most important sector in all continents, except \r\nEurope and Australasia, where most adaptation occurs in the urban \r\nsector (high confidence) (Figure 4.24)."


id: d9ef2c66338a17d77d6cbd00a2063684
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content:
"Figure  4.23 |   Sectoral distribution of documented water-related adaptation responses (observed adaptation) across the 16 categories derived from \r\nFigure 4.22. The quantity of evidence is derived from the number of papers in a particular adaptation response category where high is > 40 papers, medium is 10-40 papers and \r\nlow is < 10 papers. Confidence in evidence relates to the way the article links outcomes of adaptation with the adaptation response. Category 1: studies causally link adaptation \r\noutcomes to the adaptation response by constructing credible counterfactuals; category 2: studies correlate responses and outcomes without causal attribution; category 3: studies \r\ndescribe adaptation outcomes without making any causal or correlation claims between adaptation outcomes and adaptation responses"


id: 6b4f8fd34f5aa106bbaa533b5330c58b
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vector_id: 14505
content:
" High confidence: more than 67% of the \r\nstudies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50-67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2, and low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories 1 and 2."


id: e4a377ba0d13e7418491d8b5c8ae3613
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"The top four adaptation responses in terms of frequency of documentation \r\nare changes in the cropping pattern and crop systems (145 responses), \r\nimproved crop cultivars and agronomic practices (139 responses), \r\nirrigation and water management practices (115 responses) and \r\nwater and soil conservation measures (102 responses). These top four \r\nresponses provide several benefits such as higher incomes and yields, \r\nbetter water use efficiencies and related outcomes (high confidence) \r\n(Table 4.9 and Figure 4.27). However, those benefits are incremental, \r\nthat is, they help improve crop production and incomes, at least in the \r\nshort run, but may not automatically lead to transformative outcomes \r\nand climate risk reductions (Pelling et al., 2015; Fedele et al., 2019). One \r\nway to move from incremental to transformative adaptation could be \r\nto invest gains from incremental adaptation in education and capacity \r\nbuilding to improve overall adaptive capacity (Vermeulen et al., 2018)"


id: 41a8bf500d63a276ba24d5e79d0e5997
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" \r\nResponses such as migration, including spontaneous and planned \r\nrelocation, are also relatively well documented (medium confidence), as \r\nare responses such as collective action, training and capacity building \r\nand economic and financial measures for increasing adaptive capacities \r\n(medium confidence). These categories of adaptation can potentially \r\nlead to transformative outcomes, such as a shift to livelihoods that are \r\nless exposed to climate hazards. However, transformative pathways are \r\nnot always straightforward (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2020) (Table 4.8)."


id: 599878c98c0aeb1b2903f823c03e5422
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"impacts on vulnerable people, for example, on women, children and \r\nIndigenous Peoples; (c) water-related impacts, for example, improved \r\nwater use efficiency, water saving, reduction in water withdrawals and \r\napplication; (d) ecological and environmental impacts such as lesser \r\nenergy use, better soil structures and better thermal comfort.; (e) \r\ninstitutional and sociocultural impacts such as improved social capital \r\nand stronger communities of practice, equity; and strengthening of local \r\ninstitutions or national policies. Of these 359 studies, 319 documented \r\nbeneficial outcomes across one or more indicators, while the remaining \r\n40 presented no beneficial outcomes. Illustrative examples are shown \r\nin Table  4.9, while the distribution of these responses with positive \r\noutcomes is shown in Figure  4"


id: f6e739b04d3a3cf11187adf01eaad6f
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"In summary, current adaptation responses have benefits across several \r\ndimensions. In developing countries, most adaptation measures \r\nimprove economic outcomes (high confidence). Adaptation responses \r\nalso have benefits in terms of water outcomes and environmental \r\nand ecological parameters, and these benefits are more commonly \r\nmanifested in developed countries (high confidence). Of the papers \r\nassessed for water-related adaptation, roughly one fourth reported \r\nadaptation co-benefits (high confidence). In contrast, one third of \r\nstudies reported maladaptive outcomes, now or in the future (high \r\nconfidence), emphasizing the importance of looking at synergies and \r\ntrade-offs. Despite many adaptation case studies, there is a knowledge \r\ngap in understanding if the benefits of adaptation also translate into a \r\nreduction of climate impacts, and if so, to what extent, and under what \r\nconditions (high confidence)"


id: 4f4a1418f8d5408b2dd1819090e78b82
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" In view of this critical knowledge gap, \r\nour assessment is limited to benefits of current adaptation responses."


id: 63eddd074581659753e68cba96350a00
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"Adaptation responses that focus on improving incomes through \r\nproduction intensification can have maladaptive outcomes. An oft\u0002cited example of this is groundwater overuse as a result of irrigation \r\nintensification. There is widespread evidence of groundwater overuse \r\nin many countries in Africa (Mapfumo et al., 2017), in the Middle East \r\nand North Africa (Petit et al., 2017; Daly-Hassen et al., 2019), in Asia \r\n(Burchfield and Gilligan, 2016; Zhang et  al., 2016b; Kattumuri et  al., \r\n2017), in Spain (Petit et al., 2017) and in Australia (Kirby et al., 2014) \r\n(Sections  4.2.6, 4.6.2, Box  4.3). Intensification-based approaches also \r\nincrease costs of cultivation (Mussetta et al., 2016; Wang and Chen, 2018; \r\nQuan et al., 2019), and can lead to more use of fertilisers and herbicides \r\n(Thierfelder et al., 2015; Sujakhu et al., 2016; Khanal et al., 2018a; Yamba \r\net al., 2019)"


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" Diversification away from food crops can also compromise \r\ndomestic food security (Kloos and Renaud, 2014; Brussow et al., 2017)."


id: 8ff168f72687c6d234e753fc9adef62d
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"Changes in cropping patterns and crop systems (Figure  4.28) (five \r\nstudies; 31 data points) indicate limited potential to reduce projected \r\nclimate risks, with the majority of studies providing results of up to 1.5degC \r\nof warming and limited evidence for higher warming levels. At 1.5degC, \r\neffectiveness in Africa is mostly insufficient, with substantial maladaptive \r\npotential (Brouziyne et al., 2018). Over Asia, effectiveness is mostly small \r\nat 1.5degC with substantial residual impacts, further reducing to insufficient \r\neffectiveness at large residual risks at 4degC (Figure  4.28 Projected \r\neffectiveness) (robust evidence; medium agreement) (Boonwichai et al., \r\n2019; Dai et  al., 2020; Mehrazar et  al., 2020). Amongst the options \r\nrelated to changes in cropping patterns and crop systems, shifting \r\nplanting dates is projected to retain moderate to high residual risks \r\nunder some specifications in Iran (Paymard et al., 2018) and Morocco \r\n(Brouziyne et al"


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", 2018), while high effectiveness is reported for similar \r\nspecifications in Thailand (Boonwichai et al., 2019), Australia (Luo et al., \r\n2016), Morocco ((Brouziyne et al., 2018) and Iran (Mehrazar et al., 2020). \r\nOf the assessed adaptation options, changes in cropping patterns and \r\ncropping systems appear least effective in reducing climate risk, with \r\ndecreasing effectiveness at higher levels of warming."


id: 85c108f09beae14d2bc6fe8fb2af1c35
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"Studies assessing the future effectiveness of irrigation-related \r\nresponses (Figure  4.28) focus on a range of specific approaches, \r\nincluding increasing irrigation efficiency, deficit irrigation, irrigated \r\narea expansion or shifting from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture, as \r\nwell as specific types of irrigation (21 studies; 103 data points). As a \r\nfrequently implemented option with direct entry points to agricultural \r\nmodels, this option provides the most robust set of data points across \r\nregions and warming levels. For all regions, a reduction in effectiveness \r\nis apparent from 1.5degC to higher levels of warming, leading to increased \r\nresidual risk with increasing warming (high confidence). Irrigation \r\ncan increase yield relative to present day, showing co-benefits for \r\nsome regions, though the share of co-benefits decreases with higher \r\nwarming (high confidence) (Figure 4.28)"


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" However, since many of these \r\nstudies rely on global agricultural models which do not fully represent \r\nthe actual availability of water, further expansion of irrigation at the \r\nscale assumed in those studies may not be realistic (Sections 4.3.1.2. \r\n4.3.1.3) (Elliott et al., 2014)."


id: b82ac176b668185fb959a9723c5c7689
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"In practice, responding to increasing climate risk will need to be context\u0002specific and sufficiently agile to respond to ever-changing realities on the \r\nground. The adaptive pathways approach underline that a sequence of \r\ndifferent options responding to climate change over time may be most \r\neffective (Babaeian et al., 2021). In addition, impact models generally \r\nunderestimate or underrepresent climate extremes (Schewe et  al., \r\n2019), limiting the ability of the present analysis to reflect adaptation \r\nrequirements to extremes, which are likely to push systems to their limits \r\n(Section 4.7.4). While currently known structural adaptation responses \r\ncan reduce some of the projected risks across sectors and regions, \r\nresidual impacts remain at all levels of warming, and effectiveness \r\ndecreases at higher levels of warming. Adaptation generally performs \r\nmore effectively at 1"


id: 35ab3ab4d360c87496a9b8e00c82a96c
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"5degC, though residual damages are projected at this \r\nwarming level across sectors and regions (high confidence). A range of \r\noptions also shows the potential for further increasing negative effects \r\n(maladaptation) across sectors, regions and warming levels, further \r\nunderlining the need for contextualised approaches."


id: 3351193b68b7190b5c015801d7005b31
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"Water-related adaptation is being observed across sectors and regions \r\n(Section 4.6), and beneficial outcomes are documented across different \r\ndimensions (Section  4.7.1). A limited set of frequently documented \r\nadaptation responses is also represented in quantitative projections \r\nof adaptation effectiveness (Section  4.7.2, Figure  4.29). However, \r\ndue to the largely different assessment methodologies for measuring \r\nbeneficial outcomes for current adaptations and effectiveness to reduce \r\nimpacts for future adaptations, comparing current and future adaptation \r\noutcomes is not straightforward. For current adaptation responses, \r\nbeneficial outcomes may or may not translate to climate risk reduction, \r\nmaking risk reduction potential of observed adaptation a significant \r\ngap in our current understanding"


id: 4da3a7422d5325911565cc9e117d983f
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" The large diversity of outcomes across \r\nregions and assessed options becomes apparent for future adaptation \r\noptions, with the group of 'inconclusive' outcomes indicating a large \r\nspread of results across regions. This underlines the contextual nature \r\nof adaptation and boundary conditions for implementation that can \r\ndetermine the success of adaptation outcomes, now or in the future."


id: 8189c1dd7fb677fb397e630de736882c
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"Figure 4.29 |  The panel on the left side shows observed benefits of adaptation. Observed outcomes are reported across five dimensions of benefits, co-benefits and \r\nmaladaptation outcomes. Benefits are measured across five dimensions. Strength of evidence is high if >80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial \r\noutcome; medium if between 50 and 80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome, and low if <50% of adaptation responses have at \r\nleast one beneficial outcome. Confidence in evidence relates to the way the article links outcomes of adaptation with the adaptation response"


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" Category 1: studies causally link \r\nadaptation outcomes to the adaptation response by constructing credible counterfactuals; category 2: studies correlate responses and outcomes without causal attribution; category \r\n3: studies describe adaptation outcomes without making any causal or correlation claims between adaptation outcomes and adaptation responses. High confidence: more than \r\n67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50-67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2; low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories \r\n1 and 2. The panel on the right-hand side shows the effectiveness of future adaptations. Future outcomes are assessed in terms of their effectiveness to reduce climate impacts at \r\n1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC and 4degC of global temperature increase relative to 1850-1900. Effectiveness is defined as the fraction of adaptation that the option is able to reduce; residual risk \r\nis the fraction of risk remaining after adaptation"


id: e43c943ff3aaaea0c0ced1166e5a336e
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" If >66% of assessed data points agree on the effectiveness class, a response-temperature combination is shown as belonging to \r\nthat class. Where results diverge, the result is inconclusive, with studies showing high and low effectiveness across regions and studies. Confidence is based on the number of data \r\npoints available for each response-temperature combination with high confidence: 5 or more data points; medium confidence: 2-4 data points; low confidence: 1 data point. Also, \r\nsee Figure 4.28 for further explanations, and Tables SM4.5 and SM4.6 provide underlying data."


id: c5d14ddd7e3346c74b43bd607ab019c7
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"adaptation that is happening now cannot be modelled for the future. \r\nTherefore, projections of future adaptation effectiveness are limited \r\nto those options that can be incorporated into (global) quantitative \r\nclimate impact models. Unfortunately, an extensive range of options, \r\nsuch as capacity building or training, migration and employment, which \r\nare essential building blocks in the portfolio of available (water-related) \r\nadaptation options, are currently not quantitatively represented in \r\nadaptation projections. In addition, the future will probably bring \r\nfurther development in technical solutions, which are currently also \r\nnot modelled. While implementing the modelled technical options may \r\nbe feasible in general, several barriers and constraints (Section 4.7.4) \r\nand enabling conditions, which influence adaptation action in practice, \r\nare not included in current modelling studies"


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" Therefore, the modelling \r\nstudies may present optimistic assessments of adaptation effectiveness \r\nfor the future."


id: 82e6f5ea29fcc22bc82453361813f039
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"Institutionalconstraints, including path dependency and lengthy decision\u0002making processes, remain major limitations to successful adaptation \r\nglobally (high confidence) (Barnett et al., 2015; Oberlack, 2017), as well \r\nas for the water sector (Kingsborough et al., 2016; Oberlack, 2017; Azhoni \r\nand Goyal, 2018). For example, a lack of institutional support has limited \r\nthe ability of farmers to implement adaptation, even if information about \r\nthe benefits is acknowledged (Nambi et al., 2015). A lack of inter-sectoral \r\ncoordination and communication within institutions and conflicting \r\ninterests between water sectors limit the potential for integrated \r\npolicies. For all water-related adaptation options, which have shown to \r\nbe effective in one or more dimensions (Section  4.7.1.2), governance \r\nand institutional constraints were identified to be the most commonly \r\nencountered to a moderate or significant extent (Figure 4.30)"


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" Water-\r\nenergy-food nexus approaches can help overcome these inter-sectoral \r\nbarriers (Box 4.8) (Rasul and Sharma, 2016; Ernst and Preston, 2017). In \r\naddition, trade-offs between different policy goals must be considered \r\nto ensure the broader significance of the implemented adaptation \r\nstrategies, such as water quality implication of adaptation efforts in the \r\nagricultural or energy sectors (Section 4.7.6) (Fezzi et al., 2015)."


id: 7c2d87210fa50db71a24a3bed0b6a06c
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"While financial barriers played an important role in adopting new \r\ntechnologies at the farm level in Spain, acceptance, common \r\nunderstanding and awareness were amongst the most frequently \r\nidentified barriers across different adaptation options (Esteve et  al., \r\n2018). Limitations in knowledge and understanding of complex \r\nprocesses, feedback effects and interconnections in the water sector \r\npose challenges to effective adaptation and adaptation decision\u0002making (Kundzewicz et  al., 2018). Such constraints are identified \r\nas moderate across the range of options assessed in this chapter \r\n(Figure  4.30). For tropical and mountainous regions and the African \r\ncontinent, in particular, significant uncertainties in available data \r\nand a lack of reliable climate projections remain one of the biggest \r\nobstacles in long-term adaptation planning (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2015), \r\nespecially in the water sector (Watson et al., 2017; Azhoni and Goyal, \r\n2018; Hirpa et  al"


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", 2018; Gonzalez-Zeas et  al., 2019). There is also \r\noften a discrepancy between the level of awareness among different \r\nstakeholders, for example, between affected farmers whose agency is \r\nlimited by the lack of knowledge by local authorities (Chu, 2017)."


id: b1c4773d4a5f62ef63668a928186dfc4
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"The core constraints identified in AR5 (Klein et al., 2014) for freshwater\u0002related adaptation were lack of governance, financial resources and \r\ninformation, while water availability was singled out as a core constraint \r\nto diversifying options for water-dependent sectors. SR1.5 showed \r\nthat increasing aridity and decreased freshwater availability, including \r\nlimited groundwater supply in fossil aquifers in conjunction with rising \r\nsea levels may pose hard limits to adaptation for small islands (Roy \r\net al., 2018). SR1.5 also shows that water-related risks can be reduced \r\nsubstantially by limiting warming to 1.5degC (high confidence) (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et  al., 2018), thereby also reducing the potential to reach \r\nhard limits to adaptation. SROCC highlighted that several barriers \r\nand limits to adapt to reduced water availability in mountain areas, \r\nsuch as lack of finance and technical knowledge (Hock et al., 2019b)"


id: 2debf59f183b07a2965f309c69440143
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"limit water availability for irrigation systems that depend on melt\u0002water (Section 4.5.1) (Qin et al., 2020). Biophysical limits may also be \r\nreached through impacts of hydrological extremes, such as crop loss as \r\na consequence of extreme precipitation events (Huggel et al., 2019; van \r\nder Geest et al., 2019). Such limits are reported to a limited to moderate \r\nextent across all adaptation options assessed (Figure 4.30). However, \r\nknowledge gaps remain about physical and biological constraints to \r\nadaptation in the water sector. Climate impacts, such as droughts in \r\nEast Africa or glacier melt in the cryosphere, indicate that biophysical \r\nlimits to adaptation may exist, even under current climate conditions \r\n(Figure 4.31) (Warner and van der Geest, 2013; Huggel et al., 2019; van \r\nder Geest et al., 2019)"


id: aea62bbd5c48963ba5c25685d20fe46f
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" A lack of investment in relevant infrastructure, \r\nsuch as dikes for example, as well as maladaptive effects of certain \r\nmeasures could increase existing risks and exacerbate impacts (van \r\nder Geest et al., 2019)."


id: 1de6fc8d6ed375922f206f0adcb596ff
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"Figure 4.31 |  Examples of regional studies where communities experienced negative impacts despite or beyond implemented adaptation have been \r\ndocumented. Panels indicate the climate hazard that leads to the need for adaptation, the adaptation option implemented and the recorded impacts per region (A - Arctic \r\n(Landauer and Juhola, 2019), B - Africa (van der Geest et al., 2019), C - Caribbean (Lashley and Warner, 2015), D - South Asia (Kusters and Wangdi, 2013; van der Geest and \r\nSchindler, 2016; Bhowmik et al., 2021), E - Southeast Asia (Acosta et al., 2016; Beckman and Nguyen, 2016), F - Pacific the Small Island States (Gawith et al., 2016; Handmer \r\nand Nalau, 2019), G - Global effect: Mountain Cryosphere (Huggel et al., 2019)). Presented examples are limited to the available peer-reviewed literature that focuses explicitly \r\non impacts that have been documented despite documented evidence that adaptation in relation to water hazards had previously been implemented. Section 4"


id: 4d085ebfffe9c07048f27ab797c14047
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"SSP3 (Ciscar et al., 2018). Global direct damages from fluvial floods are \r\nprojected to rise to EUR1250 billion yr-1 under a 3degC global warming level \r\nand SSP5 socioeconomic scenario (Dottori et al., 2018). A model-based \r\nstudy of selected water-related sectors like fluvial and coastal flooding, \r\nagricultural productivity of major crops, hydroelectric power generation, \r\nand thermal power generation provides much conservative estimates of \r\nGDP loss (Takakura et al., 2019). The study shows that without adaptation, \r\nloss of global GDP could be 0.094% under RCP8.5 and SSP5 and 0.013% \r\nunder RCP2.6 and SSP1 scenarios in 2090 (2080-2099), with regional \r\nvalues for Africa (0.017 to 0.286%), Asia (0.015 to 0.104%), Australasia \r\n(-0.012 to 0.003%), North America (-0.002 to 0.005%) and South and \r\nCentral America (0.011 to 0.055%) (Takakura et al., 2019)"


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" So, while there \r\nis general agreement about negative impacts on GDP due to water-related \r\nrisks in the future, the magnitude of GDP loss estimates varies substantially \r\nand depends on various model assumptions (high confidence). Updating \r\ncosts while improving the modelling of uncertainties is essential for \r\nevidence-based decision-making (Ginbo et al., 2020)."


id: c4c44c384313c32632738be28adaf024
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"Costs of water-related infrastructure in adaptation have received \r\nattention at the global and regional level to bridge the 'adaptation gap' \r\n(Hallegatte et al., 2018; UNEP, 2018; Dellink et al., 2019; GCA, 2019). For \r\nexample, (Rozenberg and Fay, 2019) estimated that subsidising capital \r\ncosts to extend irrigation to its full potential would cost 0.13% of the GDP \r\nper year of low-and middle-income countries between 2015 and 2030. \r\nThe coastal and riverine protection cost was between 0.06% and 1% of \r\nthese countries' GDP per year over the same period. Projected economic \r\ndamage due to coastal inundation was USD 169-482 billion in 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5-SSP3 without adaptation, but USD 43-203 billion cost to \r\nraise dike height will reduce 40% of the total damage (Tamura et al., \r\n2019). Hard infrastructure for river floods, costing $4-9 billion yr-1, can \r\nreduce damage by USD 22-74 billion yr-1 (Tanoue et al., 2021)"


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" Damages \r\nare estimated to be up to six-time larger than the cost of implementing \r\nefficient adaptation measures (H2020., 2014). (GCA, 2019) reported that \r\ninvesting USD 1.8 trillion globally, for example, in early warning systems, \r\nclimate-resilient infrastructure; dryland crop production; mangrove \r\nprotection; and improving the resilience of water resources between \r\n2020 and 2030 could generate USD 7.1 trillion in benefits."


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"Comparatively, less attention has been paid to low-regret options, \r\nespecially at the national and local levels. Conservation agriculture and \r\nintegrated production systems, early-warning systems, restoration of \r\nwetlands, and zoning are postulated to have lower investment and lock\u0002in costs than engineering-based options (Mechler, 2016; Cronin et al., \r\n2018; Johnson et al., 2020). However, they require regular maintenance \r\nand high technical and human capacity, which are likely to vary by \r\nscale, location, and context (Chandra et al., 2018; Khanal et al., 2019; \r\nMutenje et al., 2019; Rahman and Hickey, 2019). Global studies suggest \r\nimprovements in returns on adaptation investments by delivering \r\nbetter services and reducing water wastage through appropriate water \r\npricing and regulations (Damania et al., 2017; Bhave et al., 2018). For \r\nexample, under scenarios SSP1 and SSP3, water pricing and regulation \r\nare projected to reverse losses in expected 2050 global GDP of 0"


id: a66532355b1524f3cfec4f0441e117df
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content:
"49% \r\nto gains of 0.09%. GDP losses are projected to drastically reduce in the \r\nMiddle East, eliminated in the Sahel and Central Africa, and reversed \r\ninto gains in Central Asia and East Africa, with benefits concentrated \r\nin worst-affected regions (World Bank, 2016). More local and national \r\nstudies are needed to identify low regret options and their benefits and "


id: 20fae7ba8b4f48deb3dab7f5c8011de6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"The WEF nexus is an approach that recognises that water, energy and food are linked in a complex web of relationships in the hydrological, \r\nbiological, social, and technological realms (D'Odorico et  al., 2018; Liu et  al., 2018b; Marker et  al., 2018). For instance, agricultural \r\nproduction requires significant energy inputs due to intensive groundwater pumping (Siddiqi and Wescoat, 2013; Gurdak, 2018; Putra \r\net al., 2020). Similarly, hydropower production often has trade-offs with irrigation, affecting food production, carbon emission and forest \r\nprotection (Meng et al., 2020). New technologies, such as desalination plants for urban water supply against future climate change and \r\ndrought, are also very energy-intensive (Caldera et al., 2018) (Box 4.5). Quantifying the complex interdependencies among food, energy \r\nand water is critical to achieving the SDGs and reducing trade-offs (Liu et al., 2018a; Liu et al., 2018b; UN, 2019)"


id: 6d1a45dee6dea31329160a86d70e9af2
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" A key benefit of the \r\nnexus approach is to leverage the interconnection of WEF and achieve the most efficiency in the overall systems. Hence, this approach \r\nallows for widening the set of salient stakeholders and, therefore, solution possibilities that may otherwise not be possible in single\u0002domain efforts and helps connect these stakeholders to achieve synergistic goals (Ernst and Preston, 2017; Mercure et al., 2019)."


id: 1b95f16e239f8697495114d79b08e3c3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"The WEF nexus approach thus opens up possibilities for strategic interventions across sectors through a better understanding of \r\ntrade-offs (Albrecht et al., 2018). Policies and strategies aiming to cope with climate change may amplify rather than reduce negative \r\nexternalities and trade-offs within the nexus: low carbon transition, the shift to non-conventional water resources, and agricultural \r\nintensification, all implemented to mitigate and adapt to climate change, are not always nexus-smart. Hence, a nexus approach that \r\nintegrates management and governance across these three sectors can enhance WEF security by minimising trade-offs and maximising \r\nsynergies between sectors. At the same time, renewable energy offers the opportunity to decouple water and food production from fossil \r\nfuel supply, leading to several advantages from both a socioeconomic and environmental point of view (Cipollina et al., 2015; Pistocchi \r\net al., 2020)"


id: a72dd06a09e09db33fd94545ebb2530e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" WEF nexus approaches can achieve overall system efficiency when maximising the use and recovery of water, energy, \r\nnutrients and materials (Pistocchi et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2021). These types of holistic system thinking of WEF show promising strategies \r\nto catalyse transformative changes. Suppose that the specific types and extent of WEF linkages in a region are well understood. In that \r\ncase, it becomes possible to intervene through one element to cause an effect on another connected component that may have proven \r\ndifficult for direct intervention (Mukherji, 2020)."


id: 2689f7445bf4e964b5fe6e7ca6cb4ddf
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"Bio-energy crop with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) involves \r\nCO2 sequestration as biofuel or forest bioenergy (Creutzig et al., 2015). \r\nBECCS has profound implications for water resources (Ai et al., 2020), \r\ndepending on factors including the scale of deployment, land use, and \r\nother local conditions. Evaporative losses from biomass irrigation and \r\nthermal bioelectricity generation are projected to peak at 183 km3\r\nyr-1 in 2050 under a low overshoot scenario (Fuhrman et al., 2020). \r\n(Senthil Kumar et  al., 2020) projected that while BECCS strategies \r\nlike irrigating biomass plantations can limit global warming by the \r\nend of the 21st century to 1.5degC, this will double the global area and \r\npopulation living under severe water stress compared to the current \r\nbaseline. Both BECCS (Muratori et al., 2016) and DAC can significantly \r\nimpact food prices via demand for land and water (Fuhrman et  al., \r\n2020)"


id: 3a7e48515f6a0ffa7bb194bdbdfabd43
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" The direction and magnitude of price movement will depend on \r\nfuture carbon prices, while vulnerable people in the Global South will \r\nbe most severely affected (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 2420163d9e2ef5215ea9bacfc1e1fc0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Afforestation and reforestation are considered one of the most \r\ncost-effective ways of storing carbon. An additional 0.9  billion ha \r\nof canopy cover in suitable locations could store 205 Gt of carbon \r\n(Bastin et  al., 2019), but this estimate is deemed unrealistic. \r\nAggressive afforestation and reforestation efforts can result in \r\ntrade-offs between biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water \r\nuse (Smith et  al., 2008). In northern China, ecological restoration \r\nby regreening drylands resulted in several environmental and \r\nsocial benefits (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019) but also led to increased \r\nfreshwater use in some pockets (Zhao et  al., 2020). Afforestation \r\nand reforestation with appropriate broad-leaf species in temperate \r\nEurope (Schwaab et al., 2020) can offer water quality and quantity\u0002related benefits, mitigate extreme heat, and buffer against drought \r\n(Staal et al., 2018)"


id: cb464ae567edeef1bac772c66e73f4af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" A global assessment on forest and water showed \r\nthat forests influence the overall water cycle, including downstream \r\nwater availability via rainfall-runoff dynamics and downwind water \r\navailability via recycled rainfall effects (Creed and van Noordwijk, \r\n2018). The study concluded that afforestation and reforestation \r\nshould be concentrated (Ellison et  al., 2017) in water-abundant \r\nlocations (to offset downstream impacts) and where transpiration \r\ncan potentially be captured downwind as precipitation (Creed et al., \r\n2019) (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2). Overall, extensive \r\nBECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the \r\nwater cycle at regional scales (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 5.1 in Chapter 5, WGI, (Canadell et al., 2021))."


id: f92b6769b2b5424ad13389df4cf66060
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Sustainable development is a global policy priority and commitment, \r\nas is keeping temperatures well below 2degC as per the Paris Agreement. \r\nWater is central to almost all SDGs (Box 4.1). Water is explicitly referred \r\nto in SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) and SDG11 (sustainable \r\ncommunities and cities) (UN, 2015) (Section 4.1). SDG1 (no poverty) \r\nis statistically linked to SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) (Pradhan, \r\n2019), since reducing poverty can help increase adaptive capacity in \r\nline with the Paris Agreement adaptation goals (see Chapter 1 and \r\nChapter 18). SDG2 (zero hunger) cannot be achieved without access to \r\nadequate water for agriculture. Meeting SDG3 (health and well-being) \r\nwill rely on access to basic infrastructure like water and sanitation \r\n(Delany-Crowe et al., 2019; see Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter \r\n7, Sections  4.3.3, 4.3"


id: e03b87de0e3379210be3b75c4b2de3de
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"5), while SDG7 (affordable and clean energy) \r\nwill need water for hydropower production under a changing climate \r\n(Berga, 2016; Byers et  al., 2016) (Section  4.5.2). Meeting SDG11 \r\n(sustainable cities and communities) will require reducing the impacts \r\nfrom water-related disasters."


id: 790812c190e7527d5e79961af58a0ade
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Technologies that reduce carbon emissions by promoting the efficient \r\nuse of water can support successful adaptation (Biagini et al., 2014), \r\nprovided they do not have adverse distributional outcomes (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement). Water management in agriculture has long \r\nseen the use of technology. For example, the use of technology to improve \r\naccess to water, for example, through the diffusion of groundwater \r\npumps in the 1970s in South Asia, had several livelihood benefits, but \r\nmade agriculture more carbon-intensive (Zaveri et  al., 2016). More \r\nrecently, technology has been used to improve water use efficiency \r\nin agriculture through the adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation \r\n(Zhuo and Hoekstra, 2017; Grafton et  al., 2018), and the use of the \r\nInternet of Things (IoT) (Keswani et al., 2019). In addition, innovations \r\nto reuse water through various wastewater recovery technologies \r\n(Diaz-Elsayed et  al"


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", 2019; Capodaglio, 2020), create potable water \r\nthrough desalinisation (Caldera et al., 2018) and reuse of wastewater in \r\nagriculture (Salgot and Folch, 2018) are also on the rise (Box 4.5). Solar \r\ntechnologies are increasingly used for irrigation, wastewater recovery, \r\ndesalinisation and water harvesting (Algarni et al., 2018; Pouyfaucon \r\nand Garcia-Rodriguez, 2018; Tu et al., 2018; Zhao F. et al., 2020). Machine \r\nlearning and artificial intelligence technologies (Doorn, 2021) have \r\nstarted being used in many water-use sectors, such as urban settings \r\n(Nie et al., 2020), wastewater management (Abdallah et al., 2020; Ben \r\nAmmar et al., 2020) and agricultural water management, but mostly \r\nin high-income countries mostly on an experimental basis (Tsang and \r\nJim, 2016; Gonzalez Perea et al., 2018). Technology is being increasingly \r\nused in hydrological sciences for measurements and monitoring \r\n(SM4"


id: f1eafbf204bb010544b8142602cca7de
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"1), as well as for creating comprehensive hydrometeorological \r\nwarning systems (Funk et al., 2015). Lack of technology and knowledge \r\ntransfer, especially related to remote sensing, is an adaptation barrier in \r\nstates with less resources (Funk et al., 2015)."


id: 3abcd22b7f4ac47160f72f9ed8d7943e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Water is also fundamental to all systems transitions, namely, transitions \r\nin energy, industrial, land and ecosystem and urban systems. Within \r\nenergy and industrial system transitions, water stress for electricity \r\ngeneration has already caused impacts (Section 4.3.2). Therefore, water \r\nefficiency measures are increasingly applied in both energy and industrial \r\nsystems with benefits for mitigation and adaptation (Section  4.6.3). \r\nWater is inextricably entwined with land and ecosystems transitions, \r\nwith forested areas and ecosystems being integral components of the \r\nwater cycle, regulating streamflow, fostering groundwater recharge \r\nand contributing to atmospheric water recycling (Takata and Hanasaki, \r\n2020) (Section 4.2). However, mitigation action of large afforestation, \r\ncan have negative water impacts (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 5 \r\nof WGI report, 4.7.6), making it imperative to consider water footprint \r\nof land- and forest-based mitigation (Muricho et  al"


id: 337778ba7d66c98b238cd906b15eae18
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", 2019; Seddon \r\net al., 2020) (Section 4.7.6). Sustainable forest management and NBS \r\nare promising alternatives for good water management (Muricho \r\net al., 2019; Seddon et al., 2020). Water will also play a crucial role in \r\nsustainable urban transitions. Cities are already facing water-related \r\nimpacts (Section  4.3.4), which are projected to intensify with every \r\ndegree of global warming (Florke et  al., 2018; Nazemi and Madani, \r\n2018) (Section 4.5.4). Mitigation and adaptation measures in urban "


id: eb4f036cf57908e98dc0754df06f6992
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Gender, class, race, age, physical ability and educational level determine \r\naccess to water and financial and societal resources, potentially \r\nadverting climate-induced water hazards, reducing vulnerability and \r\nfacilitating adaptation. However, insufficient attention has been given \r\nto the role of improving equity in access to water (Abedin et al., 2019; \r\nEakin et al., 2020). Not all water adaptation strategies are accessible \r\nto the poorest, who may turn to maladaptive strategies if their access \r\nto water is negatively affected (Eakin et  al., 2016). Consequently, \r\nthere have been calls for mainstreaming equity considerations into \r\nadaptation (Blackburn and Pelling, 2018) (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). It has been shown that people living in poverty, racial \r\nminorities and those ageing are more vulnerable to climate-induced \r\nwater hazards and that their adaptive capacity is limited (Szewranski \r\net al., 2018; Winsemius et al"


id: b18ab1acc0ea96cf61e099b0acdd3990
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content:
", 2018; Nyantakyi-Frimpong, 2020; Erwin \r\net al., 2021). Among these categories, gender is the one that has been \r\nmost analysed in the context of water and climate change."


id: 19f11623e216b4bc91e037df63d1e9de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Mitigation garners the significant share of committed climate finance. \r\nFor example, of the total USD 15.4 billion climate finance commitments \r\nthrough 'green bonds', 79% accrued to mitigation and the rest to \r\nadaptation (World Bank, 2017). However, within adaptation finance, \r\nwater garners a significant share of adaptation funds, with 13% of \r\nthe Adaptation Fund's investments were for water management, \r\n12% for coastal management and 10% for disaster risk reduction \r\n(Adaptation Fund, 2018). Similarly, within the urban adaptation \r\nlandscape, which got ~3-5% of total adaptation finance flows of USD \r\n30.8 billion tracked in 2017-2018 (Richmond et al., 2021), water and \r\nwastewater management projects received the largest share of urban \r\nadaptation finance (USD 761  million annually) followed by disaster \r\nrisk management (USD 323 million) (Richmond et al., 2021)"


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" However, \r\nmore frequent tracking of public financing is required, with a greater \r\nfocus on transparency and accountability (Ciplet et  al., 2018; Khan \r\net al., 2020) and justice and social equity (Emrich et al., 2020) (also see \r\nCross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17)."


id: be7b456cfe19b1b7afede10e5a0f3dd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Women's water rights are hampered by societal patriarchal norms \r\nthat prevent women from accessing water and participating in water \r\nmanagement. Gender power relations effectively limit women's \r\ndecision-making power, mobility and access to resources, including \r\nwater, which makes them more vulnerable to climate-related hazards \r\n(Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Djoudi et al., 2016; Sultana, 2018; Yadav \r\nand Lal, 2018). In most societies in developing countries, women and \r\ngirls are in charge of fetching water. The necessity of water collection \r\ntakes away time from income-generating activities and education (high \r\nconfidence) (Fontana and Elson, 2014; Kookana et al., 2016; Yadav and \r\nLal, 2018). In addition, the distances women and girls would have \r\nto walk as a result of growing water scarcity due to climate change \r\nmay increase (limited evidence, high confidence) (Becerra et al., 2016) \r\n(Sections 4.3.3, 4.5.3)"


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content:
" Numerous studies substantiate a male bias in \r\ninformation access, employment opportunities, resource availability \r\nand decision-making in water-related adaptation measures (Huynh \r\nand Resurreccion, 2014; Sinharoy and Caruso, 2019)."


id: cbd85fc9a022e1e7686e03d00e0e2fb9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"et  al., 2016; Gonda, 2016; Yadav and Lal, 2018), they are also \r\nproactive adaptation actors (Singh and Singh, 2015) (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox GENDER in Chapter 18). Notably, women are not a homogenous \r\ngroup, and local gender roles are not immutable or generalisable (Carr \r\nand Thompson, 2014; Djoudi et al., 2016; Gonda, 2016; Sultana, 2018). \r\nCoping responses and adaptation mechanisms to climate change are \r\nprofoundly gendered. Women and men approach the diversification of \r\nagricultural and pastoral livelihoods differently in response to climate \r\nchange (Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Kankwamba et al., 2018; Singh \r\net  al., 2018; Basupi et  al., 2019). For example, reliance on women's \r\nself-help groups and associations has proven successful in ensuring \r\nwomen's participation in decision-making in adaptation interventions \r\nas a response to climate change-induced shifting precipitation patterns \r\nand increasing droughts (Chu, 2017; Mersha and van Laerhoven, 2018; \r\nPhuong et al"


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", 2018; Walch, 2019). Studies feature water harvesting, \r\ncrop diversification, cash transfer programmes and food subsidies as \r\nadaptation measures that enhance gender equality. Adaptation to \r\nclimate change in these instances promoted gender equality because \r\nit allowed women to reap the benefits of these new measures in terms \r\nof economic and health well-being (Tesfamariam and Hurlbert, 2017; \r\nLindoso et al., 2018; Walch, 2019)."


id: 1f15a0a7b071d356ab39b56a6ad28319
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"SDG6 on water and sanitation includes a specific indicator (6.5.2) \r\nto assess cooperation over transboundary waters. While the \r\nmethodology for measuring this indicator is debated, it is clear that \r\nits composition will influence international and national water policy \r\nand law (McCracken and Meyer, 2018) and possibly help build an \r\nenvironment of trust among riparian states. Moreover, although the \r\n2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1) makes it \r\nclear that without the participation of local communities (e.g., SDG6, \r\nTarget 6b) and women (e.g., SDG5, Target 5.5), the SDGs will not be \r\nmet; the involvement of these actors in formal water governance \r\nprocesses and water management is still limited (Fauconnier et al., \r\n2018)"


id: adbe612c5715136c664082c0e89c69d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" This is due partly to the absence, in many regions of the \r\nworld, of adequate legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks \r\nfor effective stakeholder participation, partly to the influence of local \r\nsocial and cultural contexts, which can discourage inclusive water \r\ngovernance (Andajani-Sutjahjo et al., 2015; Dang, 2017). Yet, inclusion \r\nand effective participation in bottom-up decision-making processes \r\nof those disproportionately affected by climate change--including \r\nwomen and Indigenous Peoples--is particularly important to ensure \r\nthe legitimacy and inclusiveness of the decision-making process \r\nand the design of socially just adaptation actions (Shi et al., 2016). \r\nMoreover, incentives for bottom-up and participative decision-making \r\nin the water sector can facilitate effective stakeholder engagement \r\n(OECD, 2015), which helps build public confidence and trust in water \r\ngovernance."


id: b2c1e40fd188f535392bc8df00f09a9f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"The 2015 Paris Agreement made a significant impact on the status \r\nquo, with almost all the countries agreeing to limit global warming \r\nto 2degC or less. The preparation of NDCs under the Paris Agreement \r\ncontributed positively to national climate policies and helped focus on \r\nthe centrality of water in adaptation planning (Roser et al., 2020). In \r\ntotal, 92% of countries that mention adaptation in NDCs also include \r\nwater (GWP, 2018). Low-income countries make specific reference to \r\nrain-fed or irrigated agriculture and livestock. In contrast, middle- and \r\nhigh-income countries include developing management, governance \r\nmechanisms and increased disaster risk reduction in their NDC pledges \r\n(GWP, 2018). Floods were the critical climate hazards identified in \r\nthe adaptation components of NDCs, followed by droughts (85 out \r\nof 137 countries for floods and 80 out of 137 for drought)"


id: b5d46b2e16a7371324d6aefc393519c2
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content:
" Also, the \r\nwater sector was identified as the top priority sector for adaptation \r\nactions in the NDCs for 118 out of 137 countries, followed closely by \r\nthe agricultural sector with 100 out 137 (GWP, 2018) based on data \r\nfrom UNFCCC (2017). Many developing countries have included \r\nquantitative targets for adaptation in the water sector (Pauw et al., \r\n2018). Similarly, water-related impacts and adaptation often feature \r\nprominently in NAPs (DEFRA, 2018)."


id: bd47ac970f52f0a3ab6d71cd3a6fba1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 27343
content:
"Questions remain about the extent to which polycentrism can result \r\nin either greater climate justice or exacerbate existing inequalities \r\ndue, for example, to existing power inequalities which may affect the \r\nperformance and effectiveness of a polycentric system (Pahl-Wostl \r\nand Knieper, 2014; Morrison et al., 2017; Hamilton and Lubell, 2018; \r\nOkereke, 2018). For instance, historical inequities and injustices due \r\nto settler colonialism and top-down water policies, governance and \r\nlaws (Collins et al., 2017; Arsenault et al., 2018; Johnson et al., 2018; \r\nRobison et  al., 2018) have resulted in long-term water insecurity in \r\nmany indigenous communities in North America (Simms et al., 2016; \r\nMedeiros et  al., 2017; Conroy-Ben and Richard, 2018; Diver, 2018; \r\nEmanuel, 2018) (high confidence) (Section 4.6.9). Additionally, studies \r\nhighlight that power dynamics can undermine the success of those \r\ninitiatives"


id: f7a9648f21c6c8d74362549029401f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36481
content:
" For example, in the Sao Paulo water crisis, polycentric \r\ngovernance did not fully realise its potential when it was guided by \r\nauthoritarian governance favouring political interests over social, \r\nterritorial and environmental justice (Frey et  al., 2021). Likewise, in \r\nthe Thau basin (France), the most important and influential actors \r\nshaped policy measures in response to climate change, thus limiting \r\nthe potential for radical changes in water use (Aubin et al., 2019)."


id: 9eb826d2fdbb7c7f1772f24aafe4ce41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22508
content:
"Climate change will lead to populations becoming more vulnerable to floods and droughts due to an increase in the frequency, magnitude \r\nand total area affected by water-related disasters. Floods and droughts will also affect more people in the course of this century as a result \r\nof population growth and increased urbanisation, especially if warming cannot be limited to 1.5degC. The impact of floods and droughts are \r\nexpected to increase across all economic sectors, resulting in negative outcomes for the global production of goods and services, industry \r\noutput, employment, trade and household consumption. Floods will pose additional risks to people's lives and health through inundation, \r\nfacilitating the further spread of waterborne diseases. At the same time, droughts can have adverse health impacts due to the limited \r\navailability of food and water for drinking and hygienic purposes. All losses, both in terms of lives and in economic terms, will be more limited \r\nin a 1"


id: e014a6faa15837f935f26ee718b5ff69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32746
content:
"The processes that lead to droughts include lack of or less frequent precipitation, increased evapotranspiration \r\nand decreased soil moisture, snow cover, runoff and streamflow. For example, warming temperatures may result \r\nin higher evapotranspiration, in turn leading to drier soils. In addition, reduced soil moisture diminishes the \r\namount of water filtering into rivers in both the short and long term while also increasing the aridity that can \r\nfoster the conditions for fire. Moreover, decreased snow cover represents less runoff supply to downstream areas \r\nduring warmer seasons. Depending on this process and the propagation of a meteorological drought onto further \r\nsystems, a drought can be defined as hydrological, agricultural or ecological. Agricultural drought threatens food \r\nproduction through crop damage and yield decreases, and consequent economic impacts, and therefore, can be \r\nthe most impactful to humans"


id: 925a49a1e86ec7e17d58a3402bc15ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20550
content:
" Geographically, the likelihood of agricultural drought is projected to increase across \r\nmost of southern Africa, Australia, the majority of Europe, the southern and western USA, Central America and the \r\nCaribbean, northwest China, parts of South America, and the Russian Federation; but due to increased precipitation, \r\nit is projected to decline in southeastern South America, central Africa, central Canada, western India and the south \r\nof the Arabian Peninsula."


id: ac167d01d969748dbe085380a54716bf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24596
content:
"Flood hazard natural processes usually result from increases in heavy precipitation events, but they can also be \r\ncaused by saturated soils, increased runoff and land use changes. A warming climate usually causes greater energy \r\nfor the intense upward motion for storm formation and increases evapotranspiration, which leads to heavier \r\nprecipitation. Many places around the world will experience more-than-average rainfall, which may increase soil \r\nmoisture. Wetter soils saturate faster during precipitation events, resulting in increased runoff that can muddy the \r\nwaters and lead to floods. Anthropogenic land use changes, such as urbanisation, deforestation, grasslands and \r\nagricultural extension, can also reduce the amount of water infiltrating the soil and leading to frequent flooding. \r\nFloods are expected to increase in Asia, the USA and Europe, particularly in areas dependent on glacier water where \r\nmelting will lead to earlier spring floods"


id: 938ecd7d6b495197cd399b3196007a23
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20730
content:
" Additionally, fluvial floods are projected to be more frequent in some \r\nregions in central Africa and northern high latitudes and less frequent in the southern areas of North America, \r\nsouthern South America, the Mediterranean, parts of Australia and southern parts of Europe."


id: d0da753777105468f0a3939d6bd2be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30395
content:
"Globally, socioeconomic development will lead to heightened societal hazards. Due to population growth and \r\nincreased urbanisation, floods and droughts will affect more people in the course of this century, especially if \r\nwarming cannot be limited to 1.5degC. All losses, both in lives and in economic terms, will be more limited in a 1.5degC \r\nthan in a 3degC warmer world. The impacts of floods and droughts are expected to increase across all economic sectors, \r\nfrom agriculture to energy production, resulting in negative outcomes for our global production of goods and \r\nservices, industry output, employment, trade and household consumption. Landslides, sinkholes and avalanches \r\narising from heavy rainfall events will increasingly threaten infrastructure and agricultural production. In cities, \r\nincreased flood frequency could disrupt waste management systems, resulting in the clogging of waterways"


id: 765b3856e590d7f87e075328bb0cdf5b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16210
content:
" In \r\naddition, unprecedented flood magnitudes could overwhelm hydraulic infrastructure, affecting the energy, industry \r\nand transportation sectors. An expansion in inundation area, coupled with urban sprawl, would increase flood \r\ndamage. Floods will pose additional risks to people's lives and health through inundation, thus facilitating the spread \r\nof waterborne diseases. At the same time, drought can have adverse health impacts due to the limited availability of \r\nfood and water for drinking and hygienic purposes. Although there are no agreed-upon projections for migration \r\nand displacement due to water-related disasters, it is known that drought and desertification cause harvest failures, \r\nwhich may lead subsistence farmers to relocate to urban areas. Whether temporary or permanent, displacement is \r\noften mired with diminished safety, loss of social ties, and a weakened sense of place and cultural identity."


id: f6ae257d16e0c36b371827d121cc75e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36326
content:
"Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, droughts and increased rainfall \r\nvariability, which have affected yields of major crops such as maize, soybeans, rice and wheat. These changes are projected to continue in a \r\nwarmer world, which will cause yields of rain-fed crops to decline and reduce the amount of water available for irrigation in water-stressed \r\nregions. Farmers already use adaptation and coping strategies to manage agricultural water use. Some of the most important adaptation \r\nresponses are the application of irrigation, on-farm water and soil conservation; changing cropping patterns; adopting improved cultivars; and \r\nimproved agronomic practices. In many parts of the world, farmers increasingly use Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge to inform their \r\ndecisions of what to grow, when to grow and how much to irrigate"


id: 87f5a9e59fcc62a3577cd9617bee5ee6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18913
content:
" To offset the risks of market-related volatility coupled with climate change, \r\nfarmers also adopt economic and financial instruments such as index-based crop insurance. Training and capacity-building programmes and \r\nsocial safety nets are other forms of adaptation that farmers are using to respond to these changes."


id: 997b5c09e16da50322e83c68e6e7d9cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21672
content:
"Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, \r\ndroughts and increased rainfall variability. For example, loss in yields has been reported for major crops such as \r\nmaize (by 4.1%), soybeans (by 4.5%), rice (by 1.8%) and wheat (by 1.8%) due to changes in precipitation between \r\n1981 and 2010. In addition, drought has affected both the area under cultivation and the yields of major crops. \r\nAccording to one estimate, globally, there has been a loss of 9-10% of total cereal production due to droughts \r\nand other weather extremes. Similarly, floods are one of the significant reasons for crop losses worldwide. Climate \r\nchange-induced losses in livestock and fisheries have also been documented. In some parts of the world, especially \r\nin cold temperate zones, agro-climatic zones have become more conducive to yield growth in crops like maize and \r\nsoybean due to increases in summer precipitation"


id: bcb6e7b3eabd55f87ea4cbfc325af367
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27262
content:
"For decades, communities worldwide have already been adapting to climate change-induced hydrological changes \r\nto maintain their livelihood and safety. Adaptation is a multi-faceted process that is implemented differently \r\ndepending on the sector affected by changes in the hydrological cycle and the region where these changes happen. \r\nFor instance, farmers in the semiarid areas might adapt to changing rain patterns through irrigation (see also \r\nFAQ4.4). At the same time, urban dwellers can adopt measures such as rainwater harvesting and other nature-based \r\nsolutions. Several principles have been documented as crucial for achieving sustainable adaptation as they support \r\ncommunities in becoming more resilient to climate change. However, these principles can be implemented singularly \r\nor in tandem, and it is essential to acknowledge that long-term adaptation success is context-specific"


id: 45b5e61671eef7795628d7254f27a441
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8367
content:
" Therefore, it \r\nis critical to involve local communities in co-designing effective adaptation responses."


id: 167753de20d807ee483676180314f807
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1061
content:
"For communities to sustainably adapt to climate impacts on water security, participation, cooperation and bottom-up \r\nengagement are critical in all stages of the decision-making processes, from planning to full implementation. Many \r\nof the countries and social groups most threatened by climate change have contributed least to global warming \r\nand do not have access to adequate resources to adapt. Effective participation of these actors in water-related \r\nclimate change adaptation planning can contribute to more equitable adaptation actions. The involvement of the \r\nmost vulnerable in the design of adaptation responses makes it more probable that these solutions will suit their \r\nneeds and have therefore a higher chance of being effective"


id: 6b90bb94e242719e6ba2b5bee61d6b19
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14543
content:
" Accessible, inclusive and well-coordinated efforts to \r\nenhance water security will improve the legitimacy of water governance and work synergistically with reducing \r\ninequalities (UN SDG, SDG 10) and encouraging more sustainable communities (SDG 11). Communities can also be \r\ninvolved in sector-specific adaptation responses. These are often water-related and help ensure that climate action \r\n(SDG 13) is well aligned with clean water and sanitation (SGD 6)."


id: ead67c2b0bf1bbc4e9b51ac831cdbf72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34453
content:
" Nyboer (Canada), Elena \r\nOjea (Spain), Camille Parmesan (France/UK/USA), Gretta Pecl (Australia), Patricia Pinho (Brazil), John \r\nPinnegar (UK), Julio C. Postigo (USA/Peru), Bronwen Powell (Canada), Amy Quandt (USA), Marie\u0002Fanny Racault (UK/France), Victoria Reyes-Garcia (Spain), Marta Rivera-Ferre (Spain), Abubakr \r\nA.M. Salih (Kenya/Sudan), Arnim Scheidel (Spain/Austria), Anna Schlingmann (Spain/Germany), \r\nMatthew Schnurr (Canada), Rupert Seidl (Germany), Gudeta W. Sileshi (Zambia/Ethiopia), Pramod \r\nK. Singh (India), Raphael Slade (UK), Pete Smith (UK), Doris Soto (Chile), Elizabeth Sprout (UK/USA), \r\nM. Cristina Tirado-von der Pahlen (USA/Spain), Jennifer Vanos (Canada), Hitomi Wakatsuki (Japan), \r\nLewis Ziska (USA), Robert Zougmore (Burkina Faso)"


id: d2b6635fe1a3cd975800a2fe63bf044a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30671
content:
"Climate change impacts are stressing agriculture, forestry, \r\nfisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to \r\nmeet human needs (high confidence1\r\n). Human-induced warming \r\nhas slowed growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years \r\nin mid and low latitudes (medium confidence). Crop yields are \r\ncompromised by surface ozone (high confidence). Methane emissions \r\nhave negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures \r\nand surface ozone concentrations (medium confidence). Warming is \r\nnegatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability \r\n(high confidence). Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree \r\nmortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal \r\nbiomes (high confidence), negatively impacting provisioning services \r\n(medium confidence). Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields \r\nof some wild fish populations (high confidence)"


id: 6008f4d708f296dd720b6a0959156516
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12685
content:
" Ocean acidification \r\nand warming have already affected farmed aquatic species (high\r\nconfidence). {5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1}"


id: bc75b751e0eb1b0bc9936122db757c63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27230
content:
"Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all \r\nagricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for \r\nfood security and livelihoods (high confidence). The frequency \r\nof sudden food production losses has increased since at least mid\u000220th century on land and sea (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nDroughts, floods and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food \r\navailability and increased food prices, threatening food security, \r\nnutrition and livelihoods of millions (high confidence). Droughts \r\ninduced by the 2015-2016 El Nino, partially attributable to human \r\ninfluences (medium confidence), caused acute food insecurity in \r\nvarious regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the dry \r\ncorridor of Central America (high confidence). In the northeast Pacific, \r\na recent 5-year warm period impacted the migration, distribution \r\nand abundance of key fish resources (high confidence)"


id: 1887c51b98b467cbd41006b4693844ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1353
content:
"Climate change will significantly alter aquatic food provisioning \r\nservices and water security with regional variances (high \r\nconfidence). Climate change will reduce marine fisheries and \r\naquaculture productivity, altering the species that will be fished or \r\ncultured, and reducing aquaculture habitat in tropical and subtropical \r\nareas (high confidence). Global ocean animal biomass will decrease by \r\n5-17% under RCP2.6 and 8.5, respectively, from 1970 to 2100 with \r\nan average decline of 5% for every 1degC of warming, affecting food \r\nprovisioning, revenue value and distribution (medium confidence). \r\nGlobal marine aquaculture will decline under warming and \r\nacidification from 2020 to 2100, with potential short-term gains for \r\ntemperate finfish and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture \r\nfrom habitat reduction (50-100% for some countries in the Northern \r\nHemisphere) (medium confidence)"


id: 3d5ffcb12aaa7ce7565ef7bda3b21135
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7016
content:
" Changes in precipitation, sea level, \r\ntemperature and extreme climate events will affect food provisioning \r\nfrom inland and coastal aquatic systems (high confidence). Sea \r\nlevel rise and altered precipitation will increase coastal inundation \r\nand water conflicts between water-dependent sectors, such as rice \r\nproduction, direct human use and hydropower (medium confidence). \r\n{5.8.3, 5.9.3, 5.13, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: a35ad72653727ec456ecf7df92798e78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23262
content:
"The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing \r\nClimate (SROCC) identified climate change impacts of warming, \r\ndeoxygenation and acidification of the ocean and reductions in snow, \r\nsea ice and glaciers as having major negative impacts on fisheries and \r\ncrops watered from mountain runoff and agriculture. These impacts \r\naffect food provisioning of food and directly threaten livelihoods and \r\nfood security of vulnerable coastal communities and glacier-fed river \r\nbasins. Climate change impacts on fisheries will be particularly high in \r\ntropical regions, where reductions in catch are expected to be among \r\nthe largest globally, leading to negative economic and social effects \r\nfor fishing communities and with implications for the supply of fish \r\nand shellfish (high confidence)"


id: fa9b19e3dbe222cafc9ed9448fa15323
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36947
content:
" While specific impacts will depend on \r\nthe level of global warming and mitigative action to improve fisheries \r\nand aquaculture management, some current management practices \r\nand extraction levels may not be viable in the future."


id: 970e1b3dfd3a6172be677a36c3be7b8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21281
content:
"This chapter is taking a food systems approach similar to the food \r\nsecurity chapter in SRCCL (Mbow et al., 2019), with close attention to \r\nfood system linkages, interactions and impacts on ecosystem services \r\nand biodiversity (Steffen et al., 2015; Raworth, 2017; Gerten et al., 2020). \r\nFood security is defined as \"a situation that exists when all people, at \r\nall times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe \r\nand nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences \r\nfor an active and healthy life\" (FAO, 2020). Food insecurity is often \r\nexperienced as chronic hunger reported in the annual UN Food Security \r\nand Nutrition in the World (FAO, 2020), when a person is unable to \r\nconsume enough food over an extended period"


id: 7b91e3b761ae50a8c987bd7400325
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17036
content:
" The chapter gives special \r\nattention to climate change impacts on acute food insecurity, which can \r\noccur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, \r\nregardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking \r\ndeterminants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need \r\nfor humanitarian action (IPC Global Partners, 2019)."


id: 25954510d1a11d7e5de255e838c88dd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3342
content:
"Climate change has caused regionally different, but mostly negative, \r\nimpacts on crop yields and quality and marketability of products (high \r\nconfidence) (see Section 5.4.1 for observed impacts). There is medium \r\nevidence and high agreement that the effects of human-induced \r\nclimate warming since the pre-industrial era has had significantly \r\nnegative effects on global crop production, acting as a drag on the \r\ngrowth of agricultural production (Iizumi et  al., 2018; Moore, 2020; \r\nOrtiz-Bobea et al., 2021). One global study using an empirical model \r\nestimated the negative effect of anthropogenic warming trends from \r\n1961 to 2017 to be on average 5.3% for three staple crops (5.9% \r\nfor maize, 4.9% for wheat and 4.2% for rice) (Moore, 2020). Another \r\nstudy using a process-based crop model found a yield loss of 4.1% \r\n(0.5-8.4%) for maize and 4.5% (0.5-8"


id: c127abda34a4bbadba0cbf8206349781
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27969
content:
"4%) for soybean between \r\n1981 and 2010 relative to the non-warming condition, even with \r\nCO2 fertilisation effects (Iizumi et al., 2018). Human-induced warming \r\ntrends since 1961 have also slowed down the growth of agricultural \r\ntotal factor productivity by 21% (Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). Regionally, \r\nheat and rainfall extremes intensified by human-induced warming in \r\nWest Africa have reduced millet and sorghum yields by 10-20%, and \r\n5-15%, respectively (Sultan et al., 2019)."


id: c70e6d7f7a0019ac215a24933b05a575
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28901
content:
"The impacts of climate change on food provisioning have cascading \r\neffects on key elements of food security, such as food prices, \r\nhousehold income, food safety and nutrition of vulnerable groups \r\n(Peri, 2017; Ubilava, 2018; 5.11, 5.12). Climate extreme events are \r\nfrequently causing acute food insecurity (Section 5.12.3, FSIN, 2021). \r\nThere is growing evidence that human-induced climate warming \r\nhas amplified climate extreme events (Seneviratne et al., 2021), but \r\ndetection and attribution of food insecurity to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange is still limited by a lack of long-term data and complexity of \r\nfood systems (Phalkey et al., 2015; Cooper et al., 2019). A recent event \r\nattribution study by Funk (2018) demonstrated that anthropogenic \r\nenhancement of the 2015/2016 El Nino increased drought-induced \r\ncrop production losses in Southern Africa"


id: c690667f5c4e300408f71b8434ef8475
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28806
content:
" Human-induced warming \r\nalso exacerbated the 2007 drought in southern Africa, causing \r\nfood shortages, price spikes and acute food insecurity in Lesotho \r\n(Verschuur et al., 2021)."


id: ffbd112a900904325eaa0cab95b7ca41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37778
content:
"Extreme climate events will become more frequent and force some of \r\nthe current food production areas beyond the safe climatic space for \r\nproduction (high confidence) (Sections 5.4.3, 5.5.2). Globally, 10% of \r\nthe currently suitable area for major crops and livestock is projected \r\nto be climatically unsuitable in mid-century and 31-34% by the end \r\nof the century under SSP5-8.5 (Kummu et al., 2021). Adverse effects \r\nof climate change on food production will become more severe when \r\nglobal temperatures rise by more than 2degC (Sections 5.4.4.1, 5.12.4.1). \r\nOne study estimated that the heat stress from projected 3degC warming \r\nabove baseline (1986-2005) would reduce labour capacity by 30-50% \r\nin Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, leading to a 5% increase \r\nin crop prices because of higher labour cost and production losses, \r\nthereby undermining food availability, access and livelihood (de Lima \r\net  al., 2021). Thiault et  al"


id: 4498f0bb2f7775214bf040074e8f3192
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8219
content:
" (2019) projected that, by 2100, climate \r\nchange under RCP8.5 could have negative impacts on both agriculture \r\nand marine fisheries productivity in countries where 90% of the world \r\npopulation live. A global analysis of shellfish aquaculture estimated \r\nthat habitat suitability will decline beyond 2060 globally, but much \r\nsooner in some Asian countries (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020; 5.9.1). \r\nThese negative effects in the second half of the century will be much \r\nless under RCP2.6."


id: 3d34c850dfd7a7ed910d8e40e0651612
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Projecting future climate impacts relies on modelling that combines \r\nclimate data with data from experimental studies testing how species \r\nrespond to each climate factor. In cropping and forest systems, a \r\nnetwork of experimental studies with plants exposed to elevated CO2\r\nconcentrations, ozone and elevated temperature provides data on the \r\nfundamental responses to climate and atmospheric conditions (i.e., \r\nfree-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and temperature free-air \r\ncontrolled enhancement (T-FACE) systems). FACE results have been \r\ncombined and assessed more extensively since AR5 (Bishop et  al., \r\n2014; Haworth et al., 2016; Kimball, 2016; Ainsworth and Long, 2021). \r\nField-based FACE studies have several advantages over more enclosed \r\ntesting chambers, although results from more controlled experiments \r\nand coordination between different methods continue to give new \r\ninsights into crop responses to climate change and variability (Drag \r\net al"


id: e8c6f51b74859cda175795007f67367d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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", 2020; Ainsworth and Long, 2021; Sun et al., 2021). Experimental \r\nresults have limitations and can be difficult to scale up (Porter "


id: bd0d9eb35a85a13ae0060d14d311c8d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 27305
content:
"performance and sensitivity to temperature, water, nitrogen and CO2\r\nwithin AgMIP, with the focus mostly on major annual crops (Valdivia \r\net al., 2015; Ruane et al., 2017; Muller et al., 2021a). Differences in \r\nmodel type, structures and input data can result in large variation in \r\nprojections, particularly for the response of crops to elevated CO2 and \r\ntemperature (5.4.3.1); methods for quantifying and minimising this \r\nuncertainty have been developed, but improvement is still needed ( \r\nAsseng et al., 2015; Li et al., 2015; Zhao et al., 2017; Folberth et al., \r\n2019; Tao et al., 2020; Muller et al., 2021a; Ruane et al., 2021). The \r\nuse of multi-model intercomparisons has widened the range of \r\nuncertainties but has increased the robustness of impact assessments \r\n(Asseng et al., 2013; Challinor et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2017)"


id: a5b07f0a21569c85c1139285d0194d38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" Model \r\noutputs are strongly influenced by decisions over which factors to \r\ninclude; for example, including drought impacts can result in positive \r\nyield projections switching to neutral or negative values (Gray et al., \r\n2016; Jin et  al., 2018). Models are also limited in their ability to \r\nincorporate socioeconomic drivers and extreme events (Porter et al., \r\n2014; Campbell et al., 2016; Ruane et al., 2017; Jagermeyr and Frieler, \r\n2018; Webber et al., 2018; Schewe et al., 2019)."


id: b4ea9168bf58e1ef490c496b13de1080
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 25998
content:
"Modelling approaches differ widely and serve different purposes \r\n(Table 5.2; Porter et al., 2014; Jones, 2017a). The use of process-based and \r\nstatistical modelling alongside remote sensing and other spatial data \r\nhas grown. Projections increasingly draw on a combination of modelling \r\napproaches and coordinated efforts for model intercomparisons and \r\nensemble techniques, using standardised emission scenarios (RCPs). \r\nFor major crops, models of global yield impacts from CO2 concentration, \r\nair temperature and precipitation have been refined and compared \r\n(Challinor et al., 2014; Iizumi et al., 2017; Ruane et al., 2017; Zhao et al., \r\n2017; Rojas et al., 2019). Despite advances since AR5, modelling is still \r\nconstrained by limited data from field experiments (Ruane et al., 2017). \r\nIncreasingly, studies attempt to incorporate effects of elevated CO2, \r\nozone and climate extremes (Barlow et al., 2015; Schauberger et al., \r\n2019a; Vogel et  al"


id: bfc175ee66934cee3ec1e3dcaa043e27
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
", 2019), as well as attempts to incorporate more \r\ncomplex interactions with soil and crop management (Basso et  al., \r\n2018; Smith et al., 2020b). However, only a few models consider crop \r\nprotein content and other quality factors (Nuttall et al., 2017; Asseng \r\net al., 2019). Some models take account of the impacts of climate on \r\nthe timing of key biological events (phenology) in the target species; \r\nhowever, incorporating biotic interactions with pests, pathogens and \r\npollinators remains a challenge (Table 5.2; Sections 5.4.1, 5.4.3)."


id: c17c5b4b191e44893e817d5283717508
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 28027
content:
"For long-term projections and integrated assessments, a large \r\ncomponent of uncertainty remains in the ability to represent \r\nsocioeconomic responses to climate change and the degree to which \r\nthese will mitigate or exacerbate climatic changes (Valdivia et al., 2015; \r\nPrestele et al., 2016; Arneth et al., 2019). This includes the potential \r\nadaptation responses of food producers. Models that incorporate \r\nalternative socioeconomic responses offer one solution (e.g., AgMIP) \r\n(Nelson et  al., 2014; Von Lampe et  al., 2014; Wiebe et  al., 2015; \r\nRosenzweig et al., 2018; van Zeist et al., 2020). Another approach is \r\nthe use of solution-oriented scenarios to compare the effectiveness \r\nof adaptation options (Le Mouel and Forslund, 2017; Arneth et  al., \r\n2019), or to quantify the time period in which adaptation responses \r\nwill become essential (Challinor et al., 2016; Rojas et al., 2019)"


id: f06cfe803c06d39ceae92157ef2f7ccc
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content:
" Others \r\npoint to the necessity of managing food systems within the context of \r\nuncertainty (Campbell et al., 2016)."


id: fee11b53fde15f73a45d1d4bf2a19b61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Increasingly, projections look across different disciplines and across \r\nmultiple components of the food system, including livestock, fisheries \r\nand mixed farming systems (Campbell et al., 2016; Mbow et al., 2019). \r\nMajor timber species have been modelled, with projected impacts \r\non productivity, duration of rotation and distribution (i.e., climate \r\nsuitability) (Albert et  al., 2018). Livestock systems are influenced \r\nby plant productivity projections via their feedstock, for example, \r\nrangeland cattle impacted by changes in net primary production \r\n(NPP) (Boone et al., 2018). Direct climate impacts on animals are also \r\nprojected, using indices based on direct observations (Section 5.5.3). \r\nSince AR5, Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison \r\nProject (Fish-MIP) has allowed for global intercomparisons and \r\nensemble projections of marine fisheries, and projections capturing \r\ninteractions from multiple food systems (e.g"


id: 4384fe26f0b249e3ddb500a178c3c630
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content:
"in crop breeding, are often not explicitly accounted for in modelling \r\nstudies, but more recent studies do quantify the potential for \r\nadaptation (Iizumi et al., 2017; Tao et al., 2017; Aggarwal et al., 2019; \r\nMinoli et al., 2019). To account for this complexity, case studies rely on \r\ndata derived from the perception and practices of stakeholders who \r\nare engaged in adaptation (usually autonomous adaptation) (Hussain \r\net al., 2016; Lipper et al., 2017; Ankrah, 2018; Sousa-Silva et al., 2018). \r\nCase studies use a range of different indicators to monitor climate \r\nresponse options, making quantitative comparisons more difficult (Gil \r\net al., 2017; Vermeulen et al., 2018). However, systematic comparisons \r\nhave provided valuable insights (Descheemaeker et al., 2018; Shaffril \r\net al., 2018; Aggarwal et al., 2019; Bene et al"


id: 1062a336cc916c290d36e7bc19ada56e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 61
content:
", 2019); for example, the \r\nsustainable livelihood framework has been applied widely to diverse \r\naquatic systems (Bueno and Soto, 2017; Barange and Cochrane, 2018) \r\nand the Livelihood Vulnerability Index is well used across systems \r\n(Section 5.14). Coordinated efforts such as the AgMIP also provide \r\nsystematic assessments (Blanchard et al., 2017; Lipper et al., 2017; \r\nAntle et  al., 2018). Nonetheless, the full effectiveness of different \r\nadaptation options is difficult to assess given that many impacts \r\nhave not yet occurred (due to the cumulative nature of impacts and \r\nthe inertia in the climate system) (Stocker et al., 2013; Zickfeld et al., \r\n2013)."


id: 14f9c728d920ab5420ada6e72c70a0d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 805
content:
"Climate impacts for the past 20-50 years differ by crops and regions. \r\nPositive effects have been identified for rice and wheat in Eastern Asia, \r\nand for wheat in Northern Europe. The effects are mostly negative \r\nin Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Caribbean, Southern Asia, \r\nand Western and Southern Europe. Climate factors that affected long\u0002term yield trends also differ between regions. For example, in Western \r\nAfrica, 1degC warming above preindustrial climate has increased heat \r\nand rainfall extremes, and reduced yields by 10-20% for millet and \r\n5-15% for sorghum (Sultan et al., 2019). In Australia, declined rainfall \r\nand increased temperatures reduced yield potential of wheat by \r\n27%, accounting for the low yield growth between 1990 and 2015 \r\n(Hochman et  al., 2017). In Southern Europe, climate warming has \r\nnegatively impacted yields of almost all major crops, leading to recent \r\nyield stagnation (Moore and Lobell, 2015; Agnolucci and De Lipsis, \r\n2020; Bras et al"


id: 5e2420c09f01c1e006fb3f0a4f436d70
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content:
"limited, but studies are focused on increased tree mortality and yield \r\nloss due to drought, heat and impacts from variability in the timing of \r\nthe wet and dry seasons (Glenn et al., 2013; Ramirez and Kallarackal, \r\n2015); see Box 5.7). In fruit trees, warming and climate variability have \r\nalready affected fruit quality, such as acidity and texture in apples, or \r\nskin colour in grape berries (Sugiura et al., 2013; Sugiura et al., 2018). \r\nThe reliability and stability of harvests has been impacted by climate \r\nvariability, changes in the distribution of pests and pathogens (Seidel, \r\n2014; Bois et al., 2017), and the mismatch of important phenological \r\nevents (such as bud emergence and flowering) (Guo and Shen, 2015; \r\nLegave et  al., 2015; Ito et  al., 2018; Vitasse et  al., 2018). Perennial \r\ncrops are particularly vulnerable to these impacts as they are exposed \r\nthroughout the year, with little potential for growers to adjust planting \r\ndate or location"


id: 5e527447ecb150e659ae1c895fd1382a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12372
content:
" Negative impacts via disruption to phenology and \r\npest dynamics are best studied in grapevine (see Box 5.2)."


id: 39784d64f55dad5c2f6cab091343a746
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6417
content:
"While those working with major crops have benefited from the release \r\nof new cultivars, those growing other crops are typically reliant \r\non a heritage cultivars or landraces. While Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local smallholder knowledge and practices play an important \r\nrole in supporting agrobiodiversity which provides genetic diversity \r\nresistant to climate-related stresses, a global and national focus in \r\ninternational research, subsidies and support for a few crop species \r\nhas contributed to an overall decline in agrobiodiversity (FAO, 2019e; \r\nSong et al., 2019) Similarly, there is a lack of agronomic innovation and \r\nresearch to service 'minor' crops (Moriondo et al., 2015; Manners and \r\nvan Etten, 2018). Even some high-value commodities grown outside \r\nhigh-income countries suffer from imbalances in the focus of available \r\ncredit, research and innovation (Section 5.4.4.3; Glover, 2014; Fischer, \r\n2016; Farrell et al., 2018)"


id: 81307b50905fbf0714fa71aef8d23910
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 17848
content:
" There is a possibility that a lack of adaptive \r\ncapacity and policy support will drive these growers to move away \r\nfrom these diverse crops, further reducing the resilience of food \r\nsystems by increasing risk of crop loss from pests, disease and drought \r\nand potential loss of Indigenous or local knowledge (Section 5.13.5, \r\nTable Box  5.1.1). In the Andean Altiplano of Bolivia, for example, \r\nIndigenous farmers have traditionally managed a diverse set of native \r\ncrops which are drought and frost-tolerant, using cultural practices \r\nof seed selection and exchange, but have faced an increase in pests "


id: 2b57389d9d95885162c649d15ba0469f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4255
content:
"The impact of climate change on crop yield without adaptation projected \r\nin the 21st century is generally negative even with the CO2 fertilisation \r\neffects, with the overall median per-decade effect being -2.3% for \r\nmaize, -3.3% for soybean, -0.7% for rice and -1.3% for wheat, which \r\nis consistent with previous IPCC assessments (Porter et al., 2014). The \r\neffects vary greatly within each crop, timeframe and RCP, but show a \r\nfew common features across crops (Figure  5.6a). Differences in the \r\nprojected impacts between RCPs are not pronounced by mid-century. \r\nFrom then onward, the negative effect becomes more pronounced \r\nunder RCP8.5, notably in maize. Rice yields show less variation across \r\nmodels than other crops presumably because simulations are mostly \r\nunder irrigated conditions. A part of the uncertainty in the projection is \r\ndue to regional differences (Figure 5. 6b)"


id: 1141b44d6a06b09d9874eac07626e8e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" Negative impacts on cereals \r\nare projected in Africa and Central and South America at the end of the \r\ncentury, which agrees with the previous studies (Aggarwal et al., 2019; \r\nPorter et al., 2019)."


id: c005fa8e90f645cc0936178a17063a56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27764
content:
"There are significant interactions between CO2, temperature, cultivars, \r\nnitrogen and phosphorous nutrients (Kimball, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020): \r\npositive effects of rising CO2 on yield are significantly reduced by higher \r\ntemperatures for soybean, wheat and rice (medium confidence) (Ruiz\u0002Vera et al., 2013; Cai et al., 2016; Gray et al., 2016; Hasegawa et al., \r\n2016; Obermeier et al., 2016; Purcell et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). In \r\nabove-ground vegetables, elevated CO2 can in some cases reduce the \r\nimpact of other climate stressors, while in others the negative impacts \r\nof other abiotic factors negate the potential benefit of elevated CO2\r\n(Bourgault et  al., 2017; Bourgault et  al., 2018; Parvin et  al., 2018; \r\nParvin et al., 2019)"


id: a1f93ef039826b37c7c17d37d6052fd3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23048
content:
" Significant variation exists among cultivars in yield \r\nresponse to elevated CO2, which is positively correlated with yield \r\npotential in rice and soybean, suggesting the potential to develop \r\ncultivars for enhanced productivity under future elevated [CO2] \r\n(Ainsworth and Long, 2021)."


id: a1ae71019479bf5716dd32d9e7334120
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22998
content:
"Elevated CO2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, \r\nzinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending \r\non crop species and cultivars (high confidence) (Mattos et al., 2014; \r\nMyers et al., 2014; Dong et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., 2018; Zhu et al., \r\n2018a; Jin et al., 2019; Ujiie et al., 2019). This is of particular relevance \r\nfor fruit and vegetable crops given their importance in human \r\nnutrition (high confidence) (see Section 5.12.4 for potential impacts \r\non nutrition; Nelson et  al., 2018; Springmann et  al., 2018). Recent \r\nexperimental studies (Section 5.3.2), however, show some complex and \r\ncounteracting interactions between CO2 and temperature in wheat, \r\nsoybean and rice; heat stress negates the adverse effect of elevated \r\nCO2 on some nutrient elements (Macabuhay et al., 2018; Kohler et al., \r\n2019; Wang et al., 2019b)"


id: c6a6762d15321b946ac7d11393e681dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28823
content:
" The CO2 by temperature interaction for grain \r\nquality needs to be better understood quantitatively to predict food \r\nnutritional security in the future."


id: bb609040c81454d10b991ea734ed560b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27043
content:
"models have been used (SM5.3). Zhao (2019) introduced a modelling \r\napproach that could be used to generate yield projections for a wider \r\nrange of annual crops. The discussion here also draws on reviews of more \r\nrestricted experimental studies. Negative impacts of climate change on \r\ncrop production are expected across many cropping systems (Figure 5.8). \r\nApart from the direct effects of elevated carbon dioxide, most changes \r\nare expected to have negative effects on crop production. Changes in \r\ntemperature and rainfall are most often mentioned as drivers of climate \r\nimpacts, but expected changes in phenology, pests and diseases are \r\nalso raising concerns. Scheelbeek et al. (2018) synthesised projections \r\nfor vegetables and legumes, based on their response to climate factors \r\nunder experimental conditions; in most cases, the magnitude of the \r\nchanges is comparable to the RCP8.5 2100 forecasts. Scheelbeek et al. \r\n(2018) projected yield changes of: +22.0% (+11.6% to +32"


id: 941d40452926a9a8dc98a94eda649cc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20812
content:
"5%) for a \r\n250 ppm increase in CO2 concentration; -34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) \r\nfor a 50% reduction in water availability; -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) \r\nfor a 25% increase in ozone concentration; -31.5% for a 4degC increase \r\nin temperature (in papers with a baseline temperature of >20degC). \r\nOverall, impacts are expected to be largely negative in regions where \r\nthe temperature is currently above 20degC, while some yield gains are \r\nexpected in cooler regions (provided that water availability and other \r\nconditions are maintained). Scheelbeek et al. (2018) did not consider \r\nchanges in pest and disease pressure, which are projected to increase \r\nwith warming (see SM5.3)."


id: 1edfcb4042db43fb5c97aba0dc24637b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2300
content:
"Global yield modelling is lacking for woody perennial crops. \r\nExperimental studies suggest negative impacts on yields due to reduced \r\nwater supply and increased soil salinity, as well as from warming and \r\nozone (although evidence was limited for these) (Alae-Carew et al., \r\n2020). Increasing CO2 is expected to increase yields, but only where \r\nother factors, such as warming, do not become yield-limiting (Alae\u0002Carew et al., 2020). Many local projections include large uncertainty \r\nbecause of a lack of observational data and reliable parametrisation \r\n(Moriondo et  al., 2015; Mosedale et  al., 2016; Kerr et  al., 2018; \r\nMayer et  al., 2019b). Most perennial crop models have found large \r\nnegative impacts on yield and suitability, although CO2 fertilisation \r\nand phenology are not always considered (Lobell and Field, 2011; \r\nGlenn et al., 2013). Perennial crops are often grown in dryland areas \r\nwhere rainfall or irrigation water can be critical (Mrabet et al., 2020)"


id: 3c51b23a4391be2327dd3165d5195fad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6855
content:
" \r\nValverde (2015) found that yield losses in the Mediterranean region \r\nwere largely driven by reduced rainfall, with maximum estimated \r\nyield losses of 5.4% for grape, 14.9% for olive and 27.2% for almond \r\nunder a relatively hot and dry scenario (by 2041-2070). Moriondo \r\n(2015) highlight the need for perennial crop models to incorporate \r\nphenology and extreme climate events. Equally challenging is the need \r\nto estimate the impact of biotic changes, particularly climate-driven \r\nmovement of pests and diseases (Ponti et al., 2014; Bosso et al., 2016; \r\nSchulze-Sylvester and Reineke, 2019)."


id: f495c87300ad13dc2fda45118f58f7a0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35987
content:
"Temperature is the primary determinant for vine development. Recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity and harvest \r\n(high confidence) (Koufos et al., 2014; Cook and Wolkovich, 2016; Hall et al., 2016; Ruml et al., 2016; van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, \r\n2017; Koufos et  al., 2020; Wang et  al., 2020b; Wang and Li, 2020), and wine-growing regions have expanded outside the normal \r\ntemperature bounds of locally grown varieties (limited evidence, high agreement) (Kryza et al., 2015; Irimia et al., 2018). Milder winters \r\nhave affected harvest in ice-wine growing regions (Pickering et al., 2015). Higher temperatures have mixed effects depending on site, but \r\ngenerally decrease grape quality (Barnuud et al., 2014; Morales et al., 2014; Sweetman et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; Kizildeniz et al., \r\n2018). Warming increases sugar accumulation and decreases acidity (Leolini et al., 2019). Secondary metabolites are negatively affected \r\n(Biasi et al., 2019; Teslic et al"


id: d79c365b641b870015f6fb26e9f7cb1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31447
content:
", 2019). Developmental phases are projected to proceed faster in response to warming (high confidence) \r\n(Fraga et al., 2016a; Fraga et al., 2016b; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019; Molitor and Junk, 2019; Sanchez, 2019). \r\nHowever extreme high temperatures may have inhibitory effects on development (Cuccia et al., 2014)."


id: b97410f8a184ba204423a819e781681d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26719
content:
"In some cases, irrigation is required, and more frequent droughts are a key concern for yield and fruit quality (Morales et al., 2014; \r\nBonada et al., 2015; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; Salazar-Parra, 2015; Kizildeniz et al., 2018; Funes et al., 2020). Water stress reduces shoot \r\ngrowth and berry size, and increases tannin and anthocyanin content (van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). However, controlled water stress \r\nproduces positive impacts on wine quality, increasing skin phenolic compounds (van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017). The level of \r\nstress will depend on soil type, texture and organic matter content (Fraga et al., 2016a; Fraga et al., 2016b; Bonfante, 2017; Garcia de \r\nCortazar-Atauri et al., 2017; Leibar et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019; Molitor and Junk, 2019; Sanchez, 2019)"


id: 5028aee37f4a887167ebce51c1fdb157
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" Increases in water demands \r\nwith potential negative effects from increased soil salinity are among the most common effects of climate change in irrigated regions \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement) (Miras-Avalos et al., 2018; Phogat et al., 2018)."


id: d929077e963903ed9d7511713de8df35
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 31674
content:
"Adoption of practices that build SOC can improve crop resilience to climate-change-related stresses such as agricultural drought. Iizumi \r\nand Wagai (2019) found that a relatively small increase in topsoil (0-30 cm) SOC could reduce drought damages to crops over 70% of \r\nthe global harvested area. The effects of increasing SOC are more positive in drylands owing to more efficient use of rainwater, which \r\ncan increase drought tolerance (Iizumi and Wagai, 2019). Similarly, Sun et al. (2020) found that, relative to local conventional tillage, \r\nconservation agriculture has a win-win outcome of enhanced C sequestration and increased crop yield in arid regions. However, the \r\nimpact of no-till may be minimal if not supplemented with residue cover and cover crops. As such, this is a highly debated area where \r\nsome authors argue that no-till has limited effect and the evidence outside drylands is weak. Furthermore, the use of crop residues is \r\nconstrained by its alternative uses (e.g"


id: 49ff63f940b5bd156928c0d6ee769949
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 9049
content:
", fuel, livestock feed, etc.) in much of the developing world. Practices that build up SOC may \r\nencourage soil microbial populations, which in turn can increase yield stability under drought conditions (Prudent et al., 2020)."


id: c811ee7835db73e4f36ad540a51e17aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 29057
content:
"A global-scale meta-analysis estimated a 3-7% yield loss per degree \r\nCelsius increase in temperature (Zhao et al., 2017). Two global-scale \r\nstudies using multiple global gridded crop models found that growing\u0002season adaptation through cultivar changes offsets global production \r\nlosses up to 2degC of temperature increase (Minoli et al., 2019; Zabel et al., \r\n2021). While these studies do not account for CO2 fertilisation effects, \r\nanother global-scale study with the CO2 fertilisation effects (Iizumi \r\net  al., 2020) showed that residual damage (climate change impacts \r\nafter adaptation) would start to increase almost exponentially from \r\n2040 towards the end of the century under RCP8.5. The cost required \r\nfor adaptation and due to residual damage is projected to rise from \r\nUSD 63 billion at 1.5degC to USD 80 billion at 2degC and to USD 128 billion \r\nat 3degC (Iizumi et al., 2020)"


id: 5f4e698dd07a266380f2c77ef77486da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" All these global studies project that risks \r\nand damages are greater in tropical and arid regions, where crops are \r\nexposed to heat and drought stresses more often than in temperate \r\nregions (Sun et al., 2019; Kummu et al., 2021; SM5.4). There are still \r\nlarge uncertainties in the crop model projections (Muller et al., 2021a), \r\nbut these multiple lines of evidence suggest that warming beyond \r\n+2degC (projected to be reached by mid-century under high-emission \r\nscenarios) will substantially increase the cost of adaptation and the \r\nresidual damage to major crops (high confidence). The residual damage \r\nwill prevail much sooner in currently warmer regions, where the effect \r\nof even a modest temperature increase is greater (Section 5.4.3.2)."


id: 229f35496976c234a3fbe8d48b44806b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 2902
content:
"Other breeding approaches assisted by genomics have been making \r\nsteady gains in introducing traits that adapt crops to climate \r\nchange (high confidence). DNA sequence information is used to \r\nidentify markers of desirable traits that can be enriched in breeding \r\nprogrammes, as well as to quantify the genetic variability in species \r\n(Gepts, 2014; Brozynska et al., 2016; Voss-Fels and Snowdon, 2016). \r\nHowever, breeding for smallholder farmers and the stresses caused by \r\nclimate change are unlikely to be addressed by the private sector and \r\nwill require more public investment and adjusting to the local social\u0002ecological system (Glover, 2014; Heinemann et  al., 2014; Acevedo \r\net al., 2020)"


id: 418c6dae137d9ae05a1b098ba0fc0e4b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 7710
content:
" Modern biotechnology has not demonstrated the scale \r\nneutrality needed to serve smallholder-dominated agroecosystems, \r\ndue to a combination of the kinds of traits and restrictions that come \r\nfrom the predominant intellectual property rights instruments used in \r\ntheir commercialisation, as well as the focus on a small number of \r\nmajor crop species (medium confidence) (Fischer, 2016; Montenegro \r\nde Wit et al., 2020)."


id: a3041ee71d747f998a8004b132c96666
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 23212
content:
"Diversifying agricultural systems is an adaptation strategy that can \r\nstrengthen resilience to climate change, with socioeconomic and \r\nenvironmental co-benefits, but trade-offs and benefits vary by socio\u0002ecological context (high confidence) (Table  5.6, M'Kaibi et  al., 2015; \r\nBellon et  al., 2016; Jones, 2017b; Schulte et  al., 2017; Jarecki et  al., \r\n2018; Jones et al., 2018; Luna-Gonzalez and Sorensen, 2018; Sibhatu \r\nand Qaim, 2018; Renard and Tilman, 2019; Rosa-Schleich et al., 2019; \r\nBozzola and Smale, 2020; Mulwa and Visser, 2020). Crop diversification \r\nalongside livestock, fish and other species can be applied at various \r\nscales in a range of systems, from rainfed or irrigated to urban and home \r\ngardens in multiple spatial and temporal arrangements such as mixed \r\nplanting, intercrops, crop rotation, diversified management of field \r\nmargins, agroforestry (Section 5.10.1.3) and integrated crop livestock \r\nsystems (Section 5.10.1.1, Isbell et al"


id: 5c45559176fadca583bbd1375d5d2fb0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
", 2017; Kremen and Merenlender, \r\n2018; Dainese et al., 2019; Rosa-Schleich et al., 2019; Hussain et al., \r\n2020; Renwick et al., 2020; Tamburini et al., 2020; Snapp et al., 2021; \r\nsee Section 5.14 and Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2)."


id: 403538651cfcbfb7523048a1fa0e3731
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 7477
content:
"Many grassland-based livestock systems are vulnerable to climate \r\nchange and increases in climate variability (high confidence) (Dasgupta \r\net  al., 2014; Sloat et  al., 2018; Stanimirova et  al., 2019). Decadal \r\nvegetation changes from warming and drying trends have been \r\ndetected in North American grasslands, with implications for species \r\ncomposition, rangeland quality and economic viability of grazing \r\nlivestock (Rondeau et  al., 2018; Reeves et  al., 2020). Feed quality \r\nin South Asian grasslands has been negatively affected, reducing \r\nfood security (Rasul et  al., 2019). Increased grassland degradation \r\nhas been observed in parts of Inner Mongolia (Nandintsetseg et al., \r\n2021). Changing seasonality, increasing frequency of drought and \r\nrising temperatures are affecting pastoral systems globally (high \r\nconfidence)"


id: cea02cc5c7769c3ffb42e9cf19e6a8c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 30052
content:
" These and other drivers are reducing herd mobility, \r\ndecreasing productivity, increasing incidence of vector borne diseases \r\nand parasites, and reducing access to water and feed (high agreement,\r\nmedium evidence) (Lopez-i-Gelats et  al., 2016; Vidal-Gonzalez and \r\nNahhass, 2018; de Leeuw et al., 2020)."


id: 9de8b929dc8b0323aa8c2cb74fd71f0e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 22365
content:
"Climate change will have effects on future distribution, incidence \r\nand severity of climate-sensitive infectious diseases of livestock (high \r\nconfidence) (Bett et al., 2017). In an assessment of climate sensitivity \r\nof European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, 63% \r\nwere sensitive to rainfall and temperature, and zoonotic pathogens \r\nwere more climate-sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens \r\n(McIntyre et al., 2017). Over the last 75 years, >220 emerging zoonotic \r\ndiseases, some associated with domesticated livestock, have been \r\nidentified, several of which may be affected by climate change, \r\nparticularly vector-borne diseases (Vaillancourt and Ogden, 2016; \r\nsee Cross-Chapter Box  ILLNESS in Chapter 2). Walsh et  al. (2018) \r\nidentified both temperature and rainfall as influential factors in \r\npredicting increasing anthrax outbreaks in northern latitudes"


id: 3ccf73c333b8edcf05b97c39d42bb3a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 6935
content:
" Growing \r\ninfectious disease burdens in domesticated animals may have wide\u0002ranging impacts on the vulnerability of rural livestock producers in the \r\nfuture, particularly related to human health and projected increases \r\nin zoonoses (high confidence) (Bett et  al., 2017; Heffernan, 2018; \r\nRushton et al., 2018; Meade et al., 2019)."


id: de5377a017d4bbc9162bff8bd60f0125
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 32472
content:
"Most domestic livestock have comfort zones in the range 10-30degC, \r\ndepending on species and breed (Nardone et  al., 2006). At higher \r\ntemperatures, animals eat 3-5% less per additional degree of \r\ntemperature, reducing their productivity and fertility. Heat stress \r\nsuppresses the immune and endocrine system, enhancing susceptibility \r\nof the animal to disease (Das et  al., 2016b). Recent stagnation in \r\ndairy production in West Africa and China may be associated with \r\nincreased periods of high daily temperatures (low confidence) \r\n(Rahimi et al., 2020; Ranjitkar et al., 2020). Increases in the productive \r\ncapacity of domestic animals can compromise thermal acclimation \r\nand plasticity, creating further loss. Escalating demand for livestock \r\nproducts in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) may necessitate \r\nconsiderable adaptation in the face of new thermal environments \r\n(medium confidence) (Collier and Gebremedhin, 2015; Theusme et al., \r\n2021)"


id: 25492483a285ceaf12290f4398170d8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 3293
content:
" Heat effects on productivity have been summarised for pigs \r\n(da Fonseca de Oliveira et al., 2019), sheep and goats (Sejian et al., \r\n2018), and cattle (Herbut et  al., 2019). The direct effects of higher "


id: 20df8713ded2792e80947b7b0352b22e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 2605
content:
"Vulnerability to climate change depends on demography and social \r\nroles (Mbow et al., 2019). Gender inequities can act as a risk multiplier, \r\nwith women being more vulnerable than men to climate-change\u0002induced food insecurity and related risks (high confidence) (Cross\u0002Chapter Box  GENDER in Chapter 18). Women and men often have \r\ndifferential and unequal control over different productive assets and \r\nthe benefits they provide, such as income from livestock (Ngigi et al., \r\n2017; Musinguzi et  al., 2018). Indigenous livestock keepers can be \r\nmore vulnerable to climate change, partly due to ongoing processes of \r\nland fragmentation (Hobbs et al., 2008), historical land dispossession, \r\ndiscrimination and colonialisation, creating greater levels of poverty \r\nand marginalisation (Stephen, 2018). Adaptation actions may also be \r\naffected by gender and other social inequities (Balehey et al., 2018; \r\nDressler et al., 2019)"


id: 8286915bceac9affaa76c88bd7939b09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 18063
content:
" Men and women heads of household may access \r\ninstitutional support for adaptation in different ways (Assan et  al., \r\n2018). Further research is warranted to evaluate alternative gendered \r\nand equity-based approaches that can address differences in adaptive \r\ncapacity within communities."


id: a1cf26c37ccec70d1c26f4ecf0e9a58e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 23023
content:
"Increased temperatures and CO2 concentrations may increase \r\nherbaceous growth and favour legumes over grasses in mixed pastures \r\n(He et al., 2019). These effects may be modified by changes in rainfall \r\npatterns, plant competition, perennial growth habits and plant-animal \r\ninteractions. The cumulative effect of these factors is uncertain. Large, \r\npersistent declines in forage quality are projected, irrespective of \r\nwarming, under elevated CO2 conditions (600 ppm and +1.5degC day/3degC \r\nnight temperature increases) in North American grasslands (Augustine \r\net al., 2018). Rising CO2 concentrations may result in losses of iron, zinc \r\nand protein in plants by up to 8% by 2050 (Smith and Myers, 2018). \r\nLittle information is available on possible impacts on carbon-based \r\nmicronutrients, such as vitamins. About 57% of grasses globally are C3 \r\nplants and thus susceptible to CO2 effects on their nutritional quality \r\n(Osborne et al., 2014)"


id: 9d094479c5ff0a414ac4a0788ce2d4ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 22250
content:
"North America. Lallo et al. (2018) estimated that global warming of \r\n1.5degC and 2degC may exceed limits for normal thermo-regulation of \r\nlivestock animals and result in persistent heat stress for animals in the \r\nCaribbean. Breed differences in heat stress resistance in dairy animals \r\nare now being quantified (Gantner et al., 2017), as are effects on sow \r\nreproductive performance in temperate climates (Wegner et al., 2016). \r\nEstimates of losses in milk production due to heat stress in parts of \r\nthe USA, UK and West Africa to the end of the century range from \r\n1% to 17% (Hristov et  al., 2018; Fodor et  al., 2018; Wreford and \r\nTopp, 2020; Rahimi et al., 2020). Much larger losses in dairy and beef \r\nproduction due to heat stress are projected for many parts of the \r\ntropics and subtropics: these could amount to USD 9 billion per year \r\nfor dairy and USD 31 billion per for beef to end-century under SSP5-\r\n8"


id: 3c61b8524e61ca4fb891528f0650b891
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vector_id: 6862
content:
"5, approximately 5% and 14% of the global value of production of \r\nthese commodities in constant 2005 dollars."


id: 6a456ec438b169f3cd74c64477b6bf47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 14317
content:
"Livestock play important social (Kitalyi et  al., 2005) and cultural \r\n(Gandini and Villa, 2003) roles in many societies. Climate change will \r\nnegatively affect the provisioning of social benefits in many of the \r\nworld's grasslands (medium confidence). Examples include moving to \r\nsemi-private land ownership models, driven in part by climate change, \r\nthat are changing social networks and limiting socio-ecological \r\nresilience in pastoral systems in East Africa (Kibet et al., 2016; Bruyere \r\net  al., 2018) and Asia (Cao et  al., 2018a); altering traditional food, \r\nresource and medicine sharing mechanisms in West Africa (Boafo \r\net  al., 2016); and the limited ability of current livestock systems to \r\nsatisfy societies' demand for CES in Northwest Europe (Bengtsson \r\net  al., 2019)"


id: b6def87dd47d095f3e47f37ced14a74a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 26294
content:
" The societal impacts of climate change on livestock \r\nsystems may interact with drivers of change and increase herders' \r\nvulnerability via processes of sedentarisation and land fragmentation, \r\nboth of which may result in decreased animal access to rangelands \r\n(Adhikari et al., 2015; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). \r\nStronger linkages are needed between ecosystem service and food \r\nsecurity research and policy to address these challenges (Gentle and \r\nThwaites, 2016; Bengtsson et al., 2019)."


id: acf6b859d097f1299f56e1f515e23bf4
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24760
content:
"Many grassland-based livestock systems have been highly resilient \r\nto past climate risk, providing a sound starting point for current \r\nand future climate change adaptation (Hobbs et  al., 2008)"


id: ac81a0c3aef46ebb128b9c6f9825e5f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 24681
content:
" These \r\nadaptations include more effective matching of stocking rates with \r\npasture or other feed production; adjusting herd and watering point \r\nmanagement to altered seasonal and spatial patterns of forage \r\nproduction; managing diet quality, which also helps reduce enteric \r\nfermentation in ruminants and thus GHG emissions (using diet \r\nsupplements, legumes, choice of introduced pasture species and \r\npasture fertility management); more effective use of silage, rotational \r\ngrazing or other forms of pasture spelling; fire management to control \r\nwoody thickening; using better-adapted livestock breeds and species; \r\nrestoration of degraded pastureland; migratory pastoralist activities; \r\nand a wide range of biosecurity activities to monitor and manage the \r\nspread of pests, weeds and diseases (Herrero et al., 2015; Godde et al., \r\n2020)"


id: ff28ce7f58da50126793f375601ae2da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 37699
content:
" Combining adaptations can result in increases in benefits in \r\nterms of production and livelihoods over and above those attainable \r\nfrom single adaptations (high confidence) (Bonaudo et  al., 2014; \r\nThornton and Herrero, 2015; ul Haq et al., 2021)."


id: 8b348f061ec8b9cd6186288ae85dc63e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19429
content:
"Information on future climate variability changes on livestock system \r\nproductivity does not exist yet. Increases in climate variability may \r\nincrease food insecurity in the future, mediated through increased \r\ncrop and livestock production variability (Thornton and Herrero, 2014) \r\nin LMICs. Rainfall variability increases in pastoral lands have been \r\nlinked to declining cattle numbers (Megersa et al., 2014). Changes in \r\nfuture climate variability may have large negative impacts on livestock \r\nsystem outcomes (Sloat et al., 2018; Stanimirova et al., 2019); these \r\neffects can be larger than those associated with gradual climate \r\nchange (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Godde et al., 2019). \r\nIn grasslands, Chang et al. (2017) (Europe) and Godde et al. (2020) \r\n(globally) projected increases in biomass inter-annual variability, \r\nthe worst effects occurring in rangeland communities that are \r\nalready vulnerable"


id: 4d754105014bda74325124562289d522
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9620
content:
" Ways in which climate variability impacts have \r\nbeen addressed in the past, such as via herd mobility, may become \r\nincreasingly unviable in the future (Hobbs et al., 2008)."


id: b8a9b1a93bd3170dc7672311f8242d14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26578
content:
"Alternative protein sources for human food and livestock feed are receiving considerable attention. Laboratory or 'clean meat' is one \r\npotential contributor to the human demand for protein in the future (SRCLL). Such technology may be highly disruptive to existing value \r\nchains but could lead to significant reduction in land use for pastures and crop-based animal feeds (Burton, 2019; Rosenzweig et al., \r\n2020). The impacts on GHG emissions depend on the meat being substituted and the trade-off between industrial energy consumption \r\nand agricultural land requirements (Mattick et al., 2015; Alexander et al., 2017; Rubio et al., 2020b; Santo et al., 2020). Livestock feeds \r\ncan make use of other protein sources: insects are generally rich in protein and can be a significant source of vitamins and minerals. Black \r\nsoldier fly, yellow mealworm and the common housefly have been identified for potential use in feed products in the EU, for example \r\n(Henchion et al., 2017)"


id: 467db08045d2d1701110459f3db97d7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8471
content:
" Replacing land-based crops in livestock diets with some proportion of insect-derived protein may reduce the \r\nGHG emissions associated with livestock production, though these and other potential effects have not yet been quantified (Parodi \r\net al., 2018; Section 5.13.2). Other sources are high-protein woody plants such as paper mulberry (Du et al., 2021) and algae, including \r\nseaweed. While microalgae and cyanobacteria are mainly sold as a dietary supplement for human consumption, they are also used as a \r\nfeed additive for livestock and aquaculture, being nutritionally comparable to vegetable proteins. The potential for cultivated seaweed as \r\na feed supplement may be even greater: some red and green seaweeds are rich in highly digestible protein. Asparagopsis taxiformis, for \r\nexample, also decreases methane production in both cattle and sheep when used as a feed supplement (Machado et al., 2016; Li et al., \r\n2018b)"


id: d01dfe1c273a6da862e0557ee7d38f87
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30274
content:
" Novel protein sources may have considerable potential for sustainably delivering protein for food and feed alike, though their \r\nnutritional, environmental, technological and socioeconomic impacts at scale need to be researched and evaluated further."


id: 6801f6cc94f61fc74cde4142e14676af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13952
content:
"Forests play a vital role in the ecology of the planet, including \r\nclimate regulation, and provide a range of important ecosystem \r\nservices within their local landscape. Moreover, they are essential \r\nto the well-being of millions of people around the world. Forests are \r\nsources of food contributing about 0.6% of global food consumption \r\nand provide important products, such as timber and non-timber \r\nforest products (NTFPs) (FAO, 2014). Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities are estimated to manage at least 17% of total carbon \r\n(or 293 x 109\r\n Mg) stored in forest in 64 assessed countries (RRI, \r\n2018a). While small in number, numerous local communities around \r\nthe world are highly or entirely dependent on forests for their food \r\nsupply (Karttunen et  al., 2017). An estimated 9% of the world's \r\nrural population is lifted above the extreme poverty line because \r\nof income from forest resources (World Bank, 2016)"


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content:
" Additionally, \r\nforest income plays a particularly important role in diversifying the \r\nincome sources of poor households, reducing their vulnerability to \r\nloss from one source of income. This section covers an assessment \r\nof the impacts of climate change on forestry production systems and \r\nthe adaptation options available. Non-timber forest products will be \r\ncovered in the next section."


id: 57502b3f521e233e7b21576f6e5f3826
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content:
"In the past years, tree mortality continued to increase in many parts \r\nof the world. Large pulses of tree mortality were consistently linked \r\nto warmer and drier than average conditions for forests throughout \r\nthe temperate and boreal biomes (high confidence) (Sommerfeld \r\net al., 2018; Seidl et al., 2020). Long-term monitoring of tropical forests \r\nindicates that climate change has begun to increase tree mortality and \r\nalter regeneration (Hubau et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020). Climate\u0002related die back has also been observed due to novel interactions \r\nbetween the life cycles of trees and pest species (Kurz et  al., 2008; \r\nLesk et  al., 2017; Sambaraju et  al., 2019). A recent example of the \r\nimpacts of climatic extremes is the European drought of 2018 (Buras \r\net al., 2020), which led to a significant browning of the vegetation and \r\nresulted in widespread tree mortality (high confidence) (Brun et  al., \r\n2020; Schuldt et  al., 2020)"


id: 83cc5e3581192e8e4b0e7fcb18b6cf4c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" This brought markets for conifer timber \r\nclose to collapse in parts of Europe, posing considerable challenges \r\nfor timber-based forestry and leading to cascading impacts on society \r\n(Hlasny et  al., 2021). Overall, there is robust evidence and medium \r\nagreement that provisioning services of boreal and temperate forests \r\nare affected negatively by forest disturbances, while for cultural "


id: 8bebd75eb981188f24b6011f8c6bd5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Overall, studies indicate both negative and positive climate change \r\nimpacts on forest production systems. Some forests in the USA \r\ncould benefit slightly from CO2 fertilisation (using IGSM-CAM and \r\nMIROC3.2 till 2100) resulting in increased productivity especially for \r\nhardwoods (Beach et al., 2015). A study across Europe showed that \r\nboth productivity gains (mostly in Northern and Central Europe, up to \r\n+33%) and losses (predominately in Southern Europe, up to -37%) \r\nare possible until the end of the 21st century (Reyer et al., 2017). The \r\nstudy further indicated that disturbances would reduce gains and \r\nexacerbate losses of productivity throughout Europe under climate \r\nchange (Reyer et al., 2017). For Central and Eastern Canada, decreasing \r\nbiomass production is projected as a result of increasing disturbance \r\nfrom wildfire and drought (Brecka et  al., 2020)"


id: 515bfc658288aff2bea9892217e21379
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" Climate-induced \r\ndisturbances could also reduce the temporal stability of ecosystem \r\nservice supply (Albrich et al., 2018), increasing the volatility of timber \r\nmarkets (medium confidence). More broadly, climate change could \r\nlead to abrupt changes and the crossing of tipping points, resulting \r\nin profoundly altered future forest development trajectories (Turner \r\net al., 2020). Some studies suggest that such threshold could already \r\nbe crossed at relatively low warming levels of +2degC (Elkin et al., 2013; \r\nAlbrich et  al., 2020), with substantial implications for ecosystem \r\nservice supply (limited evidence, high agreement)."


id: d7901b2a9a81b986f08c410df73c051d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Regional studies on the potential future effects of climate change \r\non forest production systems indicate diverse impacts. In Germany, \r\ndrier conditions in 2070 (RCP8.5; GCMs INM-CM4, ECHAM6 and \r\nACCESS1.0) are expected to benefit the mean annual increment at \r\nbiological rotation age of Scots pine and oak, while beech might \r\nsuffer losses of up to 3 m3 ha-1 yr-1 depending on climate scenario \r\nand region (Albert et al., 2018). In India, 46% of the forest grid points \r\nwere found to have high, very high or extremely high vulnerability \r\nunder future climate in the short term (2030s) under both RCP4.5 \r\nand 8.5, increasing to 49% and 54%, respectively, in the long term \r\n(2080s) (Sharma et al., 2017). In addition, forests in the higher rainfall \r\nzones show lower vulnerability as compared with drier forests under \r\nfuture climate, which is in contrast to dry forests in Central and South \r\nAmerica cited above"


id: 8723e44463436978e54745500973020c
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content:
" Warming and drying trends are projected to \r\nreduce timber production in the neotropics in some cases (Hiltner \r\net al., 2021). Also in India, a study using CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and 8.5 with \r\ntwo time slices 2021-2050 and 2070-2099) shows how forests in \r\nfive districts in Himachal Pradesh in Western Himalayan region are \r\nvulnerable to global warming (Upgupta et al., 2015). In the Guiana \r\nShield, climate projections under RCP2.5 and 8.5 led to decreasing \r\nthe basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree \r\ngrowth and mortality rates of tropical forests (Aubry-Kientz et  al., \r\n2019). In Central Africa, projections under RCP4.5 and 8.5 showed \r\na general increase in growth, mortality and recruitment leading to "


id: 6cedb0ccadd7a225db637e7a82ae7b15
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content:
"According to these studies, global timber supply will increase as the \r\nresult of an increase in global forest growth under climate change \r\nscenarios (medium confidence). Some studies indicate that timber \r\nsupply is projected to increase more in tropical and subtropical areas \r\nbecause of the assumed availability of short-rotation species which \r\nmight could adaptation easier for forest owners in these regions \r\nrelative to others (Sohngen et al., 2001; Perez-Garcia et al., 2002; Tian \r\net al., 2016), while others indicate that temperate areas will experience \r\nthe largest increase in supply (Favero et al., 2018; Favero et al., 2021). \r\nThe results are very sensitive to the climate change scenarios tested, \r\nthe climate and vegetation models used and the climate drivers that \r\nare considered. For example, Tian et al. (2016) and Favero et al"


id: 1294a25b3e2b12e4b4e5050cd6fc5de3
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vector_id: 419
content:
" (2018; \r\n2021) used the same economic model (the global timber model) but \r\ndifferent climate scenarios and vegetation models, obtaining different \r\nresults."


id: bab969a6e31422e41ba0818a968e98ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"A wide range of measures exist to adapt sustainably managed \r\nforests of the boreal and temperate zone to climate change (Kolstrom \r\net al., 2011; Gauthier et al., 2014; Keenan, 2015). Evidence emerging \r\nsince the last assessment report further bolstered the notion that \r\nadapting the tree species composition to more warm-tolerant and less \r\ndisturbance-prone species can significantly mitigate climate change \r\nimpacts (high confidence) (Duveneck and Scheller, 2015; Seidl et al., \r\n2018). Assisting the establishment of species in suitable habitats is \r\none option to achieve climate-adapted tree species compositions \r\n(Benito-Garzon and Fernandez-Manjarres, 2015; Iverson et al., 2019). \r\nFurthermore, increasing the diversity of tree species within stands can \r\nhave positive effects on tree growth and reduce disturbance impacts \r\n(high confidence) (Neuner et al., 2015; Jactel et al., 2018; Ammer, 2019)"


id: 221372915b457776aeda64b759715e5c
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content:
" \r\nSome studies also suggest a positive effect of increased structural \r\ndiversity, such as on forest resilience (moderate confidence) (Lafond \r\net al., 2013; Koontz et al., 2020). Managing for continuous forest cover \r\ncan also help to maintain the forest microclimate and buffer tree \r\nregeneration and the forest floor community against climate change \r\n(high confidence) (De Frenne et  al., 2013; Zellweger et  al., 2020). \r\nReducing stocking levels, such as through thinning, has been found \r\nto effectively mitigate drought stress (Gebhardt et  al., 2014; Elkin \r\net  al., 2015; Bottero et  al., 2017), yet effects vary with species and \r\necological context (robust evidence, medium agreement) (Sohn et al., \r\n2016; Castagneri et al., 2021). Also shortened rotation periods have \r\nbeen suggested in response to climate-induced increases in growth \r\nand disturbance (Jonsson et al., 2015; Schelhaas et al., 2015)"


id: b9ece3205257f1dbe345162fd05671fe
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" However, \r\nrecent evidence suggests that these measures diminish in efficiency \r\nunder climate change and can have corollary effects on other important \r\nforest functions such as carbon storage and habitat quality (medium \r\nconfidence) (Zimova et al., 2020). Also, measures targeting landscape \r\nstructure and composition have proven effective for increasing the \r\nclimate resilience of forest systems (medium confidence) (Aquilue \r\net  al., 2020; Honkaniemi et  al., 2020). While an increasing number \r\nof adaptation measures exist for sustainably managed forests, many "


id: e7a69cced885ed7c2f2b1f64cf572cfb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"2009) and play an essential role in people's physical and emotional \r\nhealth (Section CCP6.2.5; 2.8) (high confidence) (Loring and Gerlach, \r\n2009; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012). Wild foods consumed in the Arctic \r\nand northern regions include animals and a wide variety of plant \r\nfoods (Wein et al., 1996; Ballew et al., 2006; Kuhnlein and Receveur, \r\n2007). Wild foods contribute most of important nutrients in the diets \r\nof northern and Arctic people (Johnson et al., 2009; Wesche and Chan, \r\n2010; Kenny et al., 2018). However, the use of traditional wild foods is \r\ndeclining across the region, lowering diet quality (Rosol et al., 2016). \r\nIndigenous communities in the Arctic perceive climate change related \r\nimpacts on traditional wild foods, and availability and access to wild \r\nfoods are forecast to continue to decline (Brinkman et al., 2016)"


id: fc5b24b004481b99ee56e44a3f7c206c
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vector_id: 37204
content:
" Some \r\ncommunities hold positive views of the new opportunities a warmer \r\nclimate will bring, seeing them as a favourable trade-off relative to \r\nthe loss of some forms of subsistence hunting (Nuttall, 2009). Climate \r\nchange is causing ecological changes that impact Arctic wild food \r\navailability and abundance in many different ways, including changes \r\nto breeding success, migration patterns and food webs (Table  5.10, \r\nMarkon et al., 2018)."


id: 3e1708b94e577bbbec9ebbd6b78486ab
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Wild foods are important to many communities that live in and \r\nadjacent to humid tropical forests, but climate change impacts are \r\nmixed (Table  5.10, Dounias et  al., 2007; Colfer, 2008; Powell et  al., \r\n2015; Rowland et  al., 2017; Reyes-Garcia et  al., 2019). In some \r\nhumid tropical forest regions, bushmeat is particularly important \r\n(Golden et al., 2011; Nasi et al., 2011; Fa et al., 2015; Powell et al., \r\n2015; Rowland et al., 2017). In humid tropical regions, the impact of \r\nclimate change on wild food availability, access and consumption is \r\ncurrently unclear and research is limited. There are, however, important \r\ninterrelationships between climate change and wild food use in \r\nhumid forests. For example, the loss of large mammals to bushmeat \r\nconsumption and global trade will likely slow the regeneration of \r\ntropical forests in which a large number of tree species are dependent \r\non large mammals for seed dispersal (Brodie and Gibbs, 2009)"


id: 6c5f446a6f39292eaad94ce4ceca39be
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" \r\nConversely, others argue that bushmeat provides local communities \r\nwith an important incentive to support local maintenance of forest \r\ncover and, thus, carbon sequestration (Bennett et al., 2007)."


id: 9301ed5af6fb3d048ff6a2832cc668b1
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"The livelihoods of 10-12% of the world's population depend on \r\nfisheries and aquaculture (FAO, 2020c). Globally, fish provide more \r\nthan 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average per capita intake of \r\nanimal proteins, reaching 50% or more in countries such as Bangladesh, \r\nCambodia, The Gambia, Ghana, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka and \r\nseveral Small Island Developing States (FAO, 2020c). Between 1961 \r\nand 2017, the average annual apparent global food fish consumption \r\nincreased (3.1% per year; from 9.0 kg per person in 1961 to 20.5 kg in \r\n2018), exceeding the rate of increase in consumption of meat from all \r\nterrestrial animals combined (2.1% annually, currently around 40 kg \r\nper person) (FAO, 2020d). Fish are a rich source of protein and specific \r\nvitamins and minerals (Khalili Tilami and Sampels, 2018), and are an \r\nessential food source in regions in need of nutritious, affordable food \r\n(Thilsted et al., 2016; FAO et al., 2018; Hicks et al"


id: 8fd8dee5e4f89d7298b68d3ebcec0de2
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"Ocean systems are already facing significant impacts of climate \r\nchange. At the ocean surface, temperature has on average increased \r\nby 0.88 [0.68-1.01] degC from 1850-1900 to 2011-2020 (Fox-Kemper \r\net  al., 2021; Gulev et  al., 2021). Marine heatwaves have increased \r\nin frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling \r\nsince the 1980s (high confidence), and their intensity and duration \r\nhave also increased (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2021, Box  9.2). In \r\nthe Northeast Pacific, for example, an intense and long-lasting marine \r\nheatwave during 2013-2015 bridged to the strong 2015-2016 El Nino \r\n(Tseng et al., 2017) resulted in over 5 years of warmer-than-normal \r\ntemperatures affecting the migration, distribution and abundance \r\nof several marine species, including fisheries resources (Cornwall, \r\n2019; Jimenez-Quiroz et  al., 2019). The surface open ocean pH has \r\ndeclined globally over the last 40 years by 0.003-0"


id: 8bbef10c2b1b983d6f0fe75867731837
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"026 pH per decade \r\n(virtually certain), and a decline in the ocean interior pH has been \r\nobserved in all ocean basins over the past two to three decades (high \r\nconfidence) (Gulev et al., 2021). The ocean is losing dissolved oxygen \r\n(very likely) in the range of 0.5-3.3% between 1970 and 2010 for the \r\n0-1000 m depth stratum (Bindoff et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021), \r\nsalt content is being redistributed (very likely) (Liu et al., 2019a; Gulev \r\net al., 2021) and vertical stratification is increasing (virtually certain) \r\n(HLPE, 2017a; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). There \r\nis high confidence that all these new physical, chemical and biological \r\nconditions affect marine organisms' physiology, distribution and \r\necology, with an overall shift in biomass and species composition \r\naffecting ecosystem structure and function (Chapter 3)"


id: 5004a130fc64f84c14c32b9a00d95fe7
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" Under climate \r\nchange, freshwater ecosystems are highly exposed to eutrophication, \r\nspecies invasion and rising temperatures (Lynch et al., 2016; Hassan \r\net al., 2020). Major threats to wetland fisheries include water stress, \r\nsedimentation, weed proliferation, sea level rise and loss of wetland \r\nconnectivity (Naskar et al., 2018)."


id: 38dfef4ee82b34e97a4de17d0261372e
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"Changes in aquatic ecosystems directly affect humans by altering \r\nlivelihood, cultural identity and sense of self, and seafood provision, \r\nquality and safety. The state of marine fishery resources has \r\ncontinued to decline, with the proportion of fish stocks at biologically \r\nunsustainable levels of exploitation increasing from 10% in 1974 to \r\n34.2% in 2017 (FAO, 2020d). There is medium confidence that fisheries \r\nproduction declines in different world regions can be partly attributed \r\nto climate change, along with overfishing and other socioeconomic \r\nfactors. It has been estimated that, from 1930 to 2010, the amount \r\nof fish that can be sustainably harvested from several marine fish \r\npopulations has decreased by 4.1% globally due to ocean warming, \r\nwith some regions (East Asian Marginal Seas, the North Sea, the Iberian \r\nCoast and the Celtic-Biscay Shelf), experiencing losses of 15-35% \r\n(Free et al., 2019)"


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" There is regional variation such as redistribution of \r\nfishing grounds, due to climate-induced fish species migrations (Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). In Tanzania, for example, \r\nmost small-scale fishers (75%) have reported shifting fishing grounds \r\nfrom nearshore to offshore areas during the last decade, due to \r\nperceived combined effects of overfishing and environmental impacts \r\n(Silas et al., 2020). Observed impacts in some inland aquatic systems \r\nindicate substantial productivity reductions (medium confidence). \r\nFor example, sustained warming in Lake Tanganyika during the last \r\n~150 years has affected the biological productivity by strengthening "


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"Indigenous coastal communities consume 1.5-2.8  million metric \r\ntonnes of fish per year (about 2% of global yearly commercial \r\nmarine catch), and reach a per capita consumption estimated to be \r\n15  times greater than that of non-Indigenous country populations \r\n(Cisneros-Montemayor et  al., 2016). There is high confidence that \r\nsome Indigenous fishing communities are particularly vulnerable to \r\nclimate change through a reduced capacity to conduct traditional \r\nharvests because of limited access to, or availability of, fish resources \r\n(Weatherdon et  al., 2016), with consequences that include dietary \r\nshifts with significant nutritional and health implications (Marushka \r\net al., 2019), displacement and loss of cultural identity (Sullivan and \r\nRosenberg, 2018) and loss of social, economic and cultural rights \r\n(Finkbeiner et al., 2018)"


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" Areas of high risk for Indigenous Peoples \r\ninclude the Arctic, coastal communities with a high dependency \r\non marine and freshwater fisheries, and Small Island States and \r\nTerritories (Finkbeiner et  al., 2018; Hanich et  al., 2018, Section \r\nCCP6.2.5.1)."


id: c0824e036cdf11ea05a7e45a409f70ba
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"35% greater than the decrease projected for the global maximum catch \r\npotential (7.7+-4.4%); (Lam et al., 2016). The global revenue potential \r\nloss for that period ranges from USD 6 to 15 billion (depending on the \r\nmodel), but impacts may be amplified at the regional scale for fisheries\u0002dependent and low-income countries. The maximum revenue potential \r\npercentage decrease in the EEZ under RCP8.5 is estimated to be over \r\n2.3 times larger than that of the high seas (Lam et al., 2016). Ocean \r\nacidification is also expected to drive large global economic impacts \r\n(medium confidence) (Cooley et  al., 2015; Fernandes et  al., 2017; \r\nMacko et al., 2017; Hansel et al., 2020), and there is high confidence\r\nthat the integrated economic consequences of all interacting climate \r\nchange-related factors would result in even larger losses. Changes in \r\nthe frequency and intensity of extreme events will also alter marine \r\necosystems and productivity"


id: c1c6e3d3ac8b5136445a133ce9edc1ea
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" Marine heatwaves can lead to severe \r\nand persistent impacts, from mass mortality of benthic communities \r\nto decline in fisheries catch (IPCC, 2021, Box 9.2). These events have \r\nvery likely doubled in frequency between 1982 and 2016 and have also \r\nbecome more intense and longer (Smale et al., 2019; Laufkotter et al., \r\n2020); for all future scenarios Earth System Models project even more \r\nfrequent, intense and longer-lasting marine heatwaves (Eyring et al., \r\n2021; IPCC, 2021, Box 9.2)."


id: 182138a4e998b69c1f48551063b8613d
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"5.8.3 Projected Impacts\r\nThere is medium confidence that climate change will reduce global \r\nfisheries' productivity (Section  3.4.4.2.3), with more significant \r\nreductions in tropical and subtropical regions and gains in the poleward \r\nareas (Bindoff et al., 2019; Oremus et al., 2020). Through an ensemble \r\nof marine ecosystem models and Earth System Models, mean global \r\nanimal biomass in the ocean has been estimated to decrease by 5% \r\nunder the RCP2.6 emissions scenario and 17% under RCP8.5 by 2100, \r\nwith an average decline of 5% for every 1degC of warming (Lotze et al., \r\n2019), affecting food provision, revenue distribution, and potentially \r\nhindering the rebuilding of depleted fish stocks (Britten et al., 2017). The \r\nprojected declining rates result in a 5.3-7% estimated global decrease \r\nin marine fish catch potential by 2050 (Cheung et al"


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", 2019), particularly \r\naccentuated in tropical marine ecosystems and affecting many low\u0002income countries (Barange and Cochrane, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; \r\nCross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Projections indicate \r\nthat by 2060 the number of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with \r\nnew transboundary stocks will increase to 46 under strong mitigation \r\nRCP2.6, and up to 60 EEZs under the RCP8.5 GHG emissions scenario \r\n(Pinsky et al., 2018). Similarly, by combining six intercompared marine \r\necosystem models, Bryndum-Buchholz et  al. (2019) projected that \r\nunder the RCP8.5 scenario a total marine animal biomass decline \r\nof 15-30% would occur in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific \r\nand the Indian Ocean by 2100. In contrast, polar ocean basins would \r\nexperience a 20-80% increase. In the eastern Bering Sea, simulations \r\nbased on RCP8.5 predict declines of pollock (>70%) and cod (>35%) \r\nstocks by the end of the century (Holsman et al., 2020)"


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" Temperate tunas \r\n(albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye \r\ntuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward by the \r\nend of the century under RCP8.5, while skipjack and yellowfin tunas are \r\nprojected to increase abundance in tropical areas of the eastern Pacific \r\nbut decrease in the equatorial western Pacific (medium confidence) \r\n(Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2019). In the western and central Pacific, \r\nredistribution of tropical tuna due to climate change is projected to \r\naffect license revenues from purse seine fishing and shift more fishing \r\ninto high seas areas (Bell et al., 2018; Table 15.5). For the east Atlantic, \r\nobservational evidence indicates that not only will tuna distribution \r\nchange with temperature anomalies, but also fishing effort distribution \r\n(Rubio et al., 2020a)"


id: 3db5df60cb258da633390defb11665b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" There is medium confidence that climate change \r\nwill create new fishing opportunities when exploited fish stocks shift \r\ntheir distribution into new fishing regions in enclosed seas, such as the \r\nMediterranean and the Black Sea (Hidalgo et al., 2018; Pinsky et al., \r\n2018). However, in general, where land barriers constrain the latitudinal \r\nshifts, the expected impacts of climate change are population declines \r\nand reduced productivity (high confidence) (Oxenford and Monnereau, \r\n2018). Besides direct impacts on the abundance of fisheries-targeted \r\nspecies, climate-change-induced proliferation of invasive species could \r\nalso affect fisheries' productivity (low confidence) (Mellin et al., 2016; \r\nGoldsmith et al., 2019).\r\nShifting marine fisheries will affect national economies (high \r\nconfidence) (Bindoff et al., 2019). It has been suggested that, without \r\ngovernment subsides, fishing is already non-profitable in 54% of the \r\ninternational waters (Sala et  al., 2018)"


id: adc2ddce2fc951d2553dd22626e01334
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" Projections are that fishing \r\nmaximum revenue potential from landed catches will decrease further \r\nby 10.4% (+-4.2%) by 2050 relative to 2000 under RCP8.5, close to "


id: 453c11cbc5c702c880e82205d0c7f08a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"In addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate \r\nchange will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, \r\nincluding increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads \r\n(high confidence) (Chen et al., 2016). Harrod et al. (2018a) found that \r\nthe two major inland fishery producers (China and India) will face \r\nsignificant stress in the future, a large group of countries that produce \r\naround 60% of total yield is projected to face medium stress, and a \r\nsmall group of 17 countries has the least severe repercussions (medium \r\nconfidence). Climate warming may enhance northward colonisation of \r\nwater bodies of commercial freshwater species in the Arctic, where \r\nthere are few ecological competitors (medium confidence) (Campana \r\net  al., 2020) but at the same time may also accentuate the age\u0002truncation effect of harvesting, elevating the population's vulnerability \r\nto environmental perturbations (Smalas et  al., 2019)"


id: b36e176b3d96a42f0010d7b5755d0430
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the \r\nnetworks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate \r\ncooperation within or among groups) (high confidence) (Stoeckl \r\net  al., 2017; D'agata et  al., 2020) and depends on to what extent \r\nstakeholders are aware of climate change and their perception of risk \r\n(Ankrah, 2018; Martins and Gasalla, 2018; Chen, 2020). Improving \r\ninformation flows allows for a more efficient co-management \r\nimplementation (medium confidence) (Vasconcelos et  al., 2020). \r\nUtilisation of local and Indigenous knowledge has the potential \r\nto facilitate adaptation (Bindoff et  al., 2019), not only because it \r\nrepresents actual experiences and autonomous adaptations, but \r\nalso because it facilitates reaching shared understanding among \r\nstakeholders and adoption of solutions"


id: da09253e218cbaf427e85eec4733f4b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" Challenges to hybridising local \r\necological knowledge and scientific knowledge include differences \r\nin stakeholder or governance perceptions about the validity of each \r\nknowledge set and issues of expertise and trust (Harrison et  al., \r\n2018). Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as \r\npartners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, \r\nenhancing the usefulness of assessments (Bindoff et al., 2019) and \r\nfacilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable \r\nsolutions (medium confidence) (Braga et al., 2020; Bulengela et al., \r\n2020). Building climate resilience in the fishing sector also involves \r\nrecognising gender and other social inequities (Call and Sellers, \r\n2019), and ensuring that all stakeholders are equally involved in the \r\nadaptation plans, including their design and the capacity-building \r\ntraining programmes."


id: 2e6a289d6cff3302c0e4168e12586b72
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"One adaptation strategy in the fishing sector is developing the capacity \r\nto recognise and respond to new opportunities that might arise from \r\nclimate change by establishing a policy and planning setting that \r\naugments the fishers' flexibility to change target species of fisheries or \r\neven engage in different productive activities. A key element would be \r\nthe design and implementation of management schemes that consider \r\nflexible permits, sharing quotas, rethinking boundaries and reference \r\npoints in response to system changes (Brander et  al., 2018; Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Large-scale distribution and \r\nproductivity changes of commercial fish species will demand the ability \r\nto implement cooperative fishing strategies (Cisneros-Montemayor \r\net al., 2020; Osthagen et al., 2020), and adjust multi-lateral treaties \r\nand other legal instruments used for managing shared transboundary \r\necosystems (Butler et al"


id: 5829fa85b112426a3d3fd865766dfcdb
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content:
"There is high confidence that making climate change and adaptive \r\ncapacity a mainstream consideration in global, regional, environmental \r\nand fisheries governance structures can improve the response capacity \r\nto ocean change (Gaines et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Holsman \r\net al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020). For example, spatial management that \r\nincludes strategies such as Territorial Use Rights for Fishing (TURFs), \r\nlocally managed marine areas (LMMAs) and customary tenure is an \r\napproach that has climate change adaptation potential in small-scale \r\nfisheries but will require adjustments in governing and managing \r\ninstitutions that allow them to be more dynamic and flexible (Le Cornu \r\net al., 2018)"


id: 64dd8f80792ef814359cfa44d994cc31
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" In regions where some of these measures have already \r\nbeen tested, institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers to \r\nsuccessful adaptation have been encountered, such as market failures \r\nstemming from uncertainty around new or emerging species, or policy \r\nbarriers derived from the fact that the creation of scientific information \r\nneeded to change regulations is likely slower than the pace of changes \r\nin stocks (Peck and Pinnegar, 2018)."


id: 5c444b7c38bdaefdc5067dfbcc985ecb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Range contractions, shifts or extirpations are projected for terrestrial and aquatic species under warming, with greater warming leading \r\nto larger shifts and losses, where mitigation would therefore benefit climate refugia and reduce projected biodiversity declines (Smith \r\net al., 2018; Warren et al., 2018). Marine species are moving poleward faster than terrestrial and freshwater species, despite faster \r\nwarming on land (Pecl et al., 2017; Lenoir et al., 2019; Woolway and Maberly, 2020), leading to new or exacerbated socioeconomic \r\nconflicts within and between countries (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter, see Sections 13.5.2.2., 15.3.4.4., FAQ 15.3., Mendenhall \r\net al., 2020). There is large variation in the magnitude and pattern of species shifts, even among similar species within a region, leading \r\nto changes in communities in a given region (Brown et al., 2016; Pecl et al., 2017)"


id: 2e00af06c55c883a10020da59a66ff2d
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" The number of extreme heat stress days are projected \r\nto increase for domesticated species like cattle (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), leading to shifts in suitable habitat for raising \r\nlivestock in the open with associated impacts in animal productivity and the costs of adapting in Africa, Asia, and Central and South \r\nAmerica (Thornton et al., 2021)."


id: 9b70b152db2aece6857e29691de49462
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"Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, \r\nespecially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food \r\nand nutrition (high confidence) (see Figures MOVING PLATE.1 and MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, Sections 3.5.3., 8.2.1.2. and 15.3.4.4, \r\nMcIntyre et al., 2016; Blasiak et al., 2017; Kifani et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Atindana et al., 2020; Hasselberg et al., 2020; Farmery et al., \r\n2021). Micronutrient concentrations from marine fisheries vary with species, providing higher concentrations of calcium, iron and zinc in \r\ntropical regions and higher concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids in polar regions (Hicks et al., 2019)"


id: a0d7d1049f86d4c96d9e5b336bfb901
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" While consumption of smaller species \r\nrich in micronutrients may provide significant benefits against deficiencies in Asia and Africa, local dietary changes in fish consumption may \r\nbe linked to food preferences, fish availability due to international trade or illegal fishing and competing usage of fish (see Figure MOVING \r\nPLATE.3 this chapter, Hicks et al., 2019; Sumaila et al., 2020; Vianna et al., 2020). Industrial fleets are likely to switch target species \r\n(Belhabib et al., 2016) and inhibit small-scale fishers via illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing in EEZs (Belhabib et al., 2019; Belhabib \r\net al., 2020). Extreme events can exacerbate issues, as fisheries are frequently increasingly exploited as a coping mechanism under times \r\nof crisis, increasing illegal fishing activities and conflict among maritime users (Pomeroy et al., 2016; Mazaris and Germond, 2018)"


id: 81551969ec51584d14b53cb91bb185ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" Spatial \r\nconflicts between artisanal and commercial foreign fishing fleets are already occurring in Ghana (Penney et al., 2017), and from climate\u0002induced tropical tuna shifts in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Islands (see Section 15.3.4.4., (Bell et al., 2018a)). Properly managed \r\nsmall-scale fisheries can reduce poverty and improve localised food security and nutrition in low-income countries but will likely require \r\nrestriction in the number of fishers, boat size or fishing days (Purcell and Pomeroy, 2015; Hicks et al., 2019)."


id: dd7f25ae6f479523509d178ec52be8e5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of \r\nresolving sovereignty claims and climate justice (high confidence) (Allison and Bassett, 2015; Ayers et al., 2018; Baudron et al.; Ojea \r\net  al., 2020; Palacios-Abrantes et  al., 2020). Higher-latitude countries generally have higher GHG emissions and will benefit from \r\npoleward-migrating resources from tropical poorer and lower-emitting GHG countries (Free et al., 2020). In this context, climate justice \r\nsupporting fishing arrangements could offset socioeconomic impacts from exiting species (Mills, 2018; Lam et  al., 2020) and have \r\nnegative implications particularly for small-scale operators (Farmery et al., 2021), However, considerations of climate justice have not \r\nbeen used by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) allocation shares to date (Engler, 2020)"


id: 36cbf8eb022c4ede9cad0a5920f8f8b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" Species shifting from one \r\nhistorical jurisdiction to another may result in an incentivised depletion of the resource by the country the stock is shifting away from; \r\nreforming management to allocate resource sharing of quotas and permits or stock-unrelated side payments in bilateral or multilateral \r\ncooperative agreements may compensate or prevent loss (Diekert and Nieminen, 2017; Free et al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020; Osthagen et al., \r\n2020; Cross-Chapter Paper Polar 6.2.)."


id: f0a179c97b2af85bc7314632e0f801df
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"(see Sections 2.6.2., 14.4.2.2. and 15.3.4.4., Harrod et al., 2018c; Pinsky et al., 2018; Holsman et al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020). Flexible and \r\nrapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets (Nguyen et al., 2016; Pentz and Klenk, 2020), and \r\nmay only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these (high confidence) (Peck and \r\nPinnegar, 2018; Figures MOVING PLATE.2 and 3 this chapter). Other adaptation options include 'follow the food' thereby migrating \r\nfurther (Belhabib et al., 2016), provision of alternative livelihoods (Thiault et al., 2019; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7, Free \r\net al., 2020), increasing ecosystem resilience by rebuilding coastal mangroves (Tanner et al., 2014; and Box 1.3) and riparian areas of \r\nfreshwater ecosystems (Mantyka-Pringle et al"


id: 96424d4e28cf09737e8d510db98e9297
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", 2016) and autonomous adaptations, such as harvesting gear modifications to access new \r\ntarget species (Harrod et al., 2018c; Kifani et al., 2018), practice change, and early-warning systems (see Section 11.3.2.3; Pecl et al., 2019; \r\nMelbourne-Thomas et al., 2021). Adaptive capacity will change with country, region, scale (commercial, recreational, Indigenous) of \r\nfishery, jurisdiction, and resource dependence (see Figure MOVING PLATE.2 this chapter for adaptation options for marine, freshwater \r\nand terrestrial systems). While shifting fishing fleets or herding may be an adaptation option to follow resources, limits to feasibility \r\ninclude institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers such as costs of sourcing food and operational economic viability (Belhabib \r\net al., 2016); this could potentially lead to maladaptation through increased GHG emissions from fuel usage and cultural displacement \r\nfrom traditional fishing and herding lands"


id: 69228c4aa77bbeece078629598b4bfde
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" Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global \r\ntemperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity (high confidence)."


id: 5ad8c2624b162785058b3f8816ae1792
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"Marine fisheries in Ghana are dominated by artisanal fishers with overfished stocks, high nutritional fish dependency, high illegal fishing, \r\nlow governance capacity (-0.21 2018, (World Bank, 2019)) and low climate awareness in regional fisheries management (Figure MOVING \r\nPLATE.3 this chapter; see Chapter 9; Nunoo et al., 2014; Belhabib et al., 2015; Belhabib et al., 2016; Kifani et al., 2018; Belhabib et al., \r\n2019). Artisanal fishing plays a pivotal role in reducing poverty and food insecurity, and the impacts of climate change will risk developing \r\npoverty traps (see Section 8.4.5.6., (Kifani et al., 2018)). Climate change induced species redistribution is a large risk to Ghanian fisheries, \r\nwith projections of over 20 commercial fish species exiting the region with no new species entering under RCP4.5 by 2100 (Oremus et al., \r\n2020), and has already seen increases in warmer-water species with declining stocks"


id: eca00568573d8a61821dc8cf7be3ea99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" Adaptation options being applied are extending \r\nfishing ranges, increasing fishing effort (and cost) to access declining fish (with government fuel incentives) (Kifani et al., 2018; Muringai \r\net al., 2021), developing aquaculture for alternative livelihoods, implementing fleet monitoring to reduce illegal fishing, and developing \r\na robust Fisheries Information and Management System that accounts for environmental and climate drivers (Johnson et al., 2014; FAO, \r\n2016; Kassi et al., 2018). However, fisheries remain insufficiently regulated, there is a lack of a skilled workforce, and there is low access \r\nto credit; collectively, these factors limit options for artisanal fishers to find alternative sustainable employment (FAO, 2016)."


id: 61a184902f4118f0b0eb0fb25fe403a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"Freshwater fisheries provide the primary source of animal protein and essential micronutrients for an estimated 200 million people \r\nglobally and are especially important in tropical developing nations (see Section  9.8, Lynch et  al., 2017; Funge-Smith and Bennett, \r\n2019.). There is evidence that freshwater fishes have undergone climate-induced distribution shifts (Comte and Grenouillet, 2015; see \r\nSection 9.8.5.1.), and further shifts are projected as water temperatures rise and hydrological regimes change, with the largest effects \r\npredicted for equatorial, subtropical and semi-arid regions (Barbarossa et al., 2021). Currently, the effects of distribution shifts on local \r\nfishery catch potential, food security and/or nutrition have not been quantified for any major inland fishery, representing a key knowledge \r\ngap for anticipating future adaptation needs for freshwater fishing societies"


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" However, studies on fishers' perceptions of climate-induced \r\nchanges in fishery catch rates have revealed that using local knowledge to adjust management practices (see Chapter 12 Central and \r\nSouth America this volume; Oviedo et al., 2016) and shifting gears, fishing grounds and target species (see Section 9.8.5.3.; Musinguzi \r\net al., 2016) can be effective adaptation options."


id: 7eed9a9ad2ee92228cb8ed875c88e6bc
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"There is robust evidence of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent \r\nas well as some extreme-polar-adapted species (high confidence) (Arctic and Siberian Tundra, see Section 2.4.2.2., Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n6), with often deleterious effects on the food security and traditional knowledge systems of Indigenous societies (Horstkotte et al., 2017; \r\nPecl et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2018; Forbes et al., 2020). Recent decades have seen declines in Arctic reindeer and caribou (see \r\nSection 2.5.1., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), and adaptation responses include utilisation of Indigenous knowledge with scientific sampling to \r\nmaintain traditional management practices (Pecl et  al., 2017; Barber et  al.; Forbes et  al., 2020)"


id: fb5411bc8cd576c2aa5a9b76a1155d8d
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" Preserving herder livelihoods will \r\nnecessitate novel solutions (supplementary feeding, seasonal movements), where governance, ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs \r\nwill be balanced at the local level (Horstkotte et al., 2017; Pecl et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2018; Forbes et al., 2020). Wild meat \r\nconsumption plays a critical, though not well understood, role in the diets and food security of several hundred million people (medium \r\nevidence), for example in lower latitudes such as Central Africa and the Amazon basin (Bharucha and Pretty, 2010; Godfray et al., 2010; \r\nNasi et al., 2011; Friant et al., 2020). Although illegal in many countries, wild meat hunting occurs either in places where there is no or "


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"Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.3 | Global documented fisheries adaptive capacity to climate change and regional seafood micronutrient \r\ndeficiency risk. Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Fisheries management adaptive capacity is a \r\nfunction of: averaged GDP World Development Indicators for 2018 (World Bank, 2020); climate awareness assessments of 30 of the FAO recognised most recent RFMOs \r\nwith direct fisheries linkages (see Supplementary Material SM5"


id: 574cffaa0001f44322715c96db206275
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"5); governance effectiveness index based on six aggregate indicators (voice and accountability, political \r\nstability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption) from 2018 World Governance Indicator (World \r\nBank, 2019) data; and heterogeneity of countries within each FAO zone (highly heterogeneous regions are less likely to establish sustainable and efficient fisheries \r\nmanagement for the entire FAO zone). Land area represents the percentage regional averaged seafood micronutrient deficiency risk of calcium, iron, zinc and vitamin A \r\nfrom 2011 data (Beal et al., 2017)."


id: 610ac2aba965ca5c05525f57c2e845c0
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"and wild meat consumption, and following food species may result in community relocations or disruption and loss of access to historical \r\nplaces of attachment (high confidence) (Pecl et al., 2017; Lenoir et al., 2019; Meredith et al., 2019; Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021; see \r\nCross-Chapter Box  MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater \r\nsystems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous \r\nknowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators (high confidence) (Huntington et al., 2015; \r\nMcGrath and Costello, 2015; Huq and Stubbings, 2016; Huq et al., 2017; Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017; Nalau et al., 2018; Raymond\u0002Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Pecl et al., 2019; Planque et al., 2019). Currently, there are large regional differences in climate literacy in \r\nRFMOs (Sumby et al"


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", 2021) which, when combined with low governance and GDP per capita, will limit adaptation capacity and increase \r\nvulnerabilities, particularly for tropical and subtropical regions already at increased risk due to poleward species migrations (see \r\nFigure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter). Trade will be an alternative to compensate for the moving plate but has specific risks that can \r\namplify inequities and maladaptation (Asche et al., 2015; Vianna et al., 2020)."


id: e95ca81bd7642fd4e50c8dc169fea1bc
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"have been increasing in both incidence and longevity over the past \r\ncentury (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Oliver et  al., 2018; Bricknell \r\net al., 2021), with productivity consequences for marine aquaculture \r\n(mariculture), carbon sequestration and local species extinctions (high \r\nconfidence) (Weatherdon et al., 2016; Smale et al., 2019). Temperature \r\nincreases related to El Nino climatic oscillations have caused mass fish \r\nmortalities either through warming waters (e.g., Pacific threadfin in \r\nHawaii (McCoy et  al., 2017)) or associated HABs (e.g., 12% loss of \r\nAtlantic salmon as well as other fish and shellfish in Chile in 2016, \r\nwith estimated USD 800 million in losses (high confidence) (Clement \r\net al., 2016; Apablaza et al., 2017; Leon-Munoz et al., 2018; Trainer \r\net al., 2020)). Increases in sea lice parasite infestations on salmon are \r\nrelated to higher salinity and warmer waters (medium confidence) \r\n(Groner et al., 2016; Soto et al., 2019)"


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" Ocean acidification is having \r\nnegative impacts on the sustainability of mariculture production (high \r\nconfidence) (Bindoff et al., 2019), with observed impacts on shellfish \r\ncausing significant production and economic losses for regions, \r\nestimated at losses of nearly USD 110 million by 2015 in the Pacific \r\nNorthwest (Barton et al., 2015; Ekstrom et al., 2015; Waldbusser et al., \r\n2015; Zhang et al., 2017b; Doney et al., 2020). Ocean oxygen levels are \r\ndeclining due to climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, \r\n2021), and decreased oxygen (hypoxia) has negative impacts on fish \r\nphysiology (Cadiz et al., 2018; Hvas and Oppedal, 2019; Martos-Sitcha \r\net al., 2019; Perera et al., 2021), fish growth, behaviour and sensitivity \r\nto concurrent stressors (high confidence) (Stehfest et al., 2017; Abdel\u0002Tawwab et al., 2019)."


id: 1220e95f7233a05ff1aafc84f747986a
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"Global aquaculture provides more fish for human consumption \r\nthan wild capture fisheries, with projected provisioning of 60% by \r\n2030 (FAO, 2018c). Aquaculture can contribute to SDGs by reducing \r\npoverty and food insecurity, filling increasing aquatic food demand \r\nshortages from declining capture fisheries production (medium \r\nconfidence) (Figure  5.13a and c, World Bank, 2013; Bene et  al., \r\n2016; Hambrey, 2017; Beveridge et  al., 2018b; Kalikoski et  al., \r\n2018; Belton et  al., 2020) and improving social inequities for poor \r\nrural communities (Bene et al., 2016; FAO, 2018c; Vannuccini et al., \r\n2018; Pongthanapanic et  al., 2019). Global aquaculture production \r\nreached 82  million tonnes (Mt) of food fish, crustaceans, molluscs \r\nand other aquatic animals from inland (51 Mt) and marine (31 Mt) \r\nsystems, and 32 Mt of aquatic plants in 2018 (FAO, 2020d). China, \r\nIndia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Egypt, Norway and Chile are \r\nmajor production regions (FAO, 2020d)"


id: f287296180a1c1a63045d1ed4680d12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" The range of species, farming \r\nmethods and environments makes aquaculture the most diverse, \r\nlong-standing farming practice in the world, with an estimated global \r\nsectoral value of USD 250 billion in 2018 (Figure 5.13b and 5.14d, \r\nBell et  al., 2019; Harland, 2019; FAO, 2020d; Houston et  al., 2020; \r\nMetian et al., 2020), but it is dominated by 20 finfish, 9 mollusc and 6 \r\ncrustacean species (FAO, 2020). Inland aquaculture in freshwater and \r\ncoastal ponds accounts for 85-90% of farmed production (Beveridge \r\net al., 2018b; Naylor et al., 2021). Globally, 20.5 million people are \r\nengaged in aquaculture (FAO, 2020d), where marine finfish farming is \r\nprimarily conducted by high-income countries and inland production \r\nis dominated by small-scale producers in lower-middle-income \r\ncountries (Vannuccini et al., 2018)."


id: 1644cdced199969d9d36c0a0151b75a4
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"There are regional differences in women's roles, responsibilities \r\nand involvement in adaptation strategies in the aquaculture sector. \r\nWomen comprise 14% of the 2018 global aquaculture workforce \r\nof 20.5 million (FAO, 2020c), representing up to 42% of the salmon \r\nworkforce in Chile (Chavez et al., 2019), predominantly in processing \r\nroles (Gopal et  al., 2020). In the majority of lower-middle-income \r\ncountries, seaweed culture is dominated by women in family-owned \r\nbusinesses as in Zanzibar and the Philippines (Brugere et  al., 2020; \r\nRamirez et  al., 2020), where women are not always paid directly \r\nbut contribute to family incomes (high confidence) (Msuya and \r\nHurtado, 2017; Brugere et  al., 2020; Ramirez et  al., 2020). In India, \r\nwomen collect stocking juveniles and assist in pond construction; in \r\nBangladesh, women do the same tasks as men; and in Ghana, women \r\nundertake post-harvest fishing activities (Lauria et al., 2018)"


id: 4c98c51eb304070593ba1ef54051ecf4
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" Women \r\nemployed in aquaculture cooperatives gained adaptive capacity, which \r\nreduced gender inequities (medium confidence) (Farquhar et al., 2018; \r\nGonzal et al., 2019), but lack of financial access for women can create \r\ngender inequity at larger commercial scales (Gurung et al., 2016; Call \r\nand Sellers, 2019). Women in aquaculture experience competing roles \r\nbetween employment, childcare and home duties (high confidence) \r\n(Morgan et al., 2015; Lauria et al., 2018; Chavez et al., 2019; see Cross\u0002Chapter Box  GENDER in Chapter 18) and differ from men in terms \r\nof perceptions of environmental risk, climate change and adaptation \r\nbehaviour, with limited contributions to decision making (medium \r\nconfidence) (Barange and Cochrane, 2018)"


id: 1ad1b48067ea5a83e4d7b0a163d3acad
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" Therefore, effective \r\nclimate aquaculture adaptation options need to address gender \r\ninequity, such as suitable technology designs that fit with social \r\nnorms and access to credit to facilitate independent uptake (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Morgan et al., 2015; Oppenheimer et al., \r\n2019). Generalised best practices for gender-sensitive approaches to \r\nadaptation are relevant for aquaculture (UNFCCC, 2013)."


id: 32f1fa232dcbb398c4590ec34388d972
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"In the marine sector, vulnerability models (Brugere and De Young, \r\n2015; Handisyde et  al., 2017) have been adapted and applied to \r\nsemi-quantitative spatial risk assessments for Chilean Atlantic \r\nsalmon, where analysis of exposure threat coupled with mortality \r\nand temperature farm data could enhance salmon production (Soto \r\net al., 2019). Vulnerability assessments in Korea (RCP8.5 temperature \r\nincrease of 4-5degC by 2100) (Kim et al., 2019a) and the USA (ocean \r\nacidification, Barton et al., 2015; Ekstrom et al., 2015) found major \r\nexposure-related vulnerabilities for seaweeds and shellfish, with \r\nreduced vulnerabilities under higher production control and adaptive \r\ncapacity. Global bivalve vulnerability assessments (RCP8"


id: c91400d7793eb092817837e2c4049f63
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"5 by 2100) \r\nshow high vulnerabilities for major producing countries related to \r\ncyclones (China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam and North \r\nKorea), regional risk of high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity \r\n(Chile, Peru, Spain, Italy), with few major producers (France, the \r\nNetherlands and USA) anticipated to remain moderately vulnerable \r\nby 2100 (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020)."


id: 765c35652e7d8bb69d447dd51379b2ec
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"2018; Froehlich et al., 2018a; Catalan et al., 2019; Thiault et al., 2019; \r\nFalconer et  al., 2020a). Sensitivities for marine finfish may be high \r\neven under +1.5-2.0degC (medium confidence) (Gattuso et al., 2018), \r\nresulting in finfish farms moving northward to maintain productivity \r\n(e.g., Arctic (Troell et al., 2017)). Downscaled projections of regionally \r\nspecific tolerances (Klinger et al., 2017) may be particularly useful for \r\nmanagement and planning; a 0.5degC rise is predicted for Chilean salmon \r\naquaculture (Soto et  al., 2019), and potential negative impacts on \r\nproductivity in Norway by 2029 have been projected (limited evidence) \r\n(Falconer et al., 2020a). Marine heatwaves are predicted to increase in \r\noccurrence, intensity and persistence under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 by 2100 \r\n(Oliver et al., 2019; Bricknell et al., 2021), with risk partly mitigated \r\nby husbandry (medium confidence) (McCoy et  al., 2017)"


id: 22cb19fcc67ab2d2651127e10530f24b
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" Generally, \r\nnegative impacts are predicted for marine species, with residual risk \r\nincreasing with level of exposure (Sara et  al., 2018; Smale et  al., "


id: 24d61744876045862f059e0d36bd39a4
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"clarity), habitat and supporting (artificial habitat) and cultural (livelihoods \r\nand tourism) services (Gentry et  al., 2020), which vary with species, \r\nlocation and husbandry (Alleway et al., 2019). Projected thermal increases \r\nof 1.5degC will reduce ecosystem services, further reduced under 2degC \r\nwarming, with associated increases in acidification, hypoxia, dead zones, \r\nflooding and water restrictions (medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2018). Sudden production losses from extreme climate events can \r\nexacerbate food security challenges across production sectors, including \r\naquaculture, increasing global hunger (high confidence) (Cottrell et al., \r\n2019; Food Security Information Network, 2020). While aquaculture \r\nprovides positive influences such as food security and livelihoods, there \r\nare negative concerns over environmental impacts (including high \r\nnutrient loads from sites) and socioeconomic conflicts (Alleway et al., \r\n2019; Soto et  al"


id: 61ea798b5f03a6eab182c965dd8325c7
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", 2019), and adoption of ecosystem approaches is \r\ndependent on particular user groups and regions (Gentry et al., 2017; \r\nBrugere et al., 2019; Gentry et al., 2020). In coastal Bangladesh, projected \r\nsaline inundation to wetland ecosystem services will result in ecosystem \r\nservices losses of raw materials and food provisioning, ranging from \r\nUSD 0 to 20.0 million under RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 scenarios (Mehvar et al., \r\n2019). Mangrove deforestation for shrimp farming in Asia negatively \r\nimpacts ecosystem services and reduces climate resilience (medium \r\nconfidence) (Mehvar et al., 2019; Nguyen and Parnell, 2019; Reid et al., \r\n2019; Custodio et al., 2020), while mangrove reforestation efforts may \r\nhave some effectiveness in re-creating important nursery grounds for \r\naquatic species (low confidence) (Gentry et al., 2017; Chiayarak et al., \r\n2019; Hai et al., 2020)"


id: bb52f1f9553bb5f91bf68b13696db15f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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" Families are highly vulnerable to climate change \r\nwhere nutritional needs are being met by self-production, such as in \r\nMozambique, Namibia (Villasante et al., 2015), Zambia (Kaminski et al., \r\n2018) and Bangladesh (high confidence) (Pant et  al., 2014). Climate \r\nchange will therefore affect multiple ecosystem services where ultimately \r\ndecisions on balance or trade-offs will vary with regional perceptions of \r\nservice value (high confidence)."


id: 2abcc616a93c132beae79b51aa2648f2
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"Globally, there is overall high confidence that suitable shellfish \r\naquaculture habitat will decline by 2100 under projected warming, \r\nocean acidification and primary productivity changes, with \r\nsignificant negative impacts for some regions and species before \r\n2100 (Table 5.9, Froehlich et al., 2018a; Ghezzo et al., 2018). Shellfish \r\ngrowth will increase with warming waters until tolerances are \r\nreached, such as through extreme El Nino events (high confidence) \r\n(Beveridge et al., 2018b; Dabbadie et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018b; Liu \r\net al., 2020). Rising temperatures and ocean acidification will result \r\nin losses of primary productivity and farmed species from tropical and \r\nsubtropical regions, and gains in higher latitudes (high confidence) \r\n(Froehlich et  al., 2018a; Aveytua-Alcazar et  al., 2020; Chapman \r\net al., 2020; Des et al., 2020; Oyinlola et al., 2020), but net marine \r\nproduction gains could be achieved under strong mitigation (Thiault \r\net al., 2019)"


id: 5a85cf30596faca39ab18ab17e970688
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" Shellfish Vibrio infections will increase with warming \r\nwaters and extreme events, increasing shellfish mortalities (medium \r\nconfidence) (Green et al., 2019; Montanchez et al., 2019), with ocean \r\nacidification impairing immune responses (limited evidence) (Cao \r\net al., 2018b). Bivalve larvae are known to be highly vulnerable to \r\nocean acidification (high confidence) (see Section 3.3, Bindoff et al., \r\n2019), with projected regional and species-specific levels of impact \r\n(high confidence) (Ekstrom et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2017b; Mangi \r\net  al., 2018) (Greenhill et  al., 2020). Ocean acidification is also \r\nprojected to weaken shells, affecting productivity and processing \r\n(high confidence) (Martinez et al., 2018; Cummings et al., 2019) and \r\ndependent livelihoods (Doney et al., 2020)."


id: 3d1625d1eb423868b93aaa9b39f9d633
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"2018). Many adaptations are specific to regions, countries or sectors, \r\nimplemented on a regional to national scale (FAO, 2018c; Galappaththi \r\net al., 2020b). Adaptation likelihood (potential), effectiveness and risk \r\nof maladaptation was assessed per major FAO production region for \r\ninland, brackish and marine aquaculture (Figure  5.16) production \r\nsystems. Potential adaptation measures to reduce production loss can \r\nbe built upon existing adaptation planning and guidelines, to reduce \r\nthe risk of maladaptation including feedback loops (e.g., FAO, 2015; \r\nBueno and Soto, 2017; Dabbadie et  al., 2018; FAO, 2018c; Poulain \r\net al., 2018; Brugere et al., 2019; Pham et al., 2021; Soto et al., 2021). \r\nLarge climate change adaptation strategies for the aquaculture sector \r\nexist, such as in the USA (Link et al., 2015), Australia (Hobday et al., \r\n2017) and South Africa (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2016)"


id: fb52db841449bf5949ee47cfb83f8e5c
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" \r\nLower-income countries often lack financial, technical or institutional \r\ncapacity for adaptation planning (Galappaththi et  al., 2020b), but \r\nexamples include Bangladesh and Myanmar (FAO, 2018c), with \r\nprogrammes offering adaptation funding (Dabbadie et  al., 2018). \r\nEarly participation of stakeholders in adaptive planning has promoted \r\naction and ownership of results (high confidence), such as in India \r\nand the USA (Link et al., 2015; FAO, 2018c; Soto et al., 2018) Early \r\noutreach, education and knowledge gap assessments raise awareness, \r\nwhere utilisation of local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge \r\nand scientific involvement support informed adaptive planning and \r\nuptake for all stakeholders (high confidence) (Cooley et al., 2016; FAO, \r\n2018c; Rybraten et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018; McDonald et al., 2019; \r\nGalappaththi et al., 2020b), as perceptions of climate risk and capacity \r\nwill vary (Tiller and Richards, 2018)"


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" Supporting the active involvement \r\nof women helps address gender inequity and perceived risk, \r\nparticularly for smallholder farmers (high confidence) (Morgan et al., \r\n2015; Barange and Cochrane, 2018; FAO, 2018c; Avila-Forcada et al., \r\n2020). However, regional and national political influences, financial \r\nand technical capacity, governance planning and policy development \r\nwill ultimately support or hinder adaptation for aquaculture (high \r\nconfidence) (Cooley et  al., 2016; FAO, 2018c; Galappaththi et  al., \r\n2020b; Greenhill et al., 2020)."


id: 9b865c56b4a73bdf66af617af4549ab3
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"and success of integrated adaptation approaches to climate change \r\n(Ahmed et al., 2019; Tran et al., 2020; Kais and Islam, 2021).\r\nSelective breeding can promote climate resilience (medium \r\nconfidence) (Klinger et al., 2017; Fitzer et al., 2019), and operations \r\nhave already intentionally, or unintentionally, selected for production \r\ntraits for changing conditions (de Melo et al., 2016; Tan and Zheng, \r\n2020). Exposure of broodstock to future climate conditions may or \r\nmay not confer advantages to offspring (moderate evidence, low \r\nagreement) (Parker et al., 2015; Griffith and Gobler, 2017; Thomsen \r\net al., 2017; Durland et al., 2019). Traditional pedigree developments \r\nrequire extensive phenotypic data, but genomic selections can rapidly \r\nselect for robust climate-associated traits (Sae-Lim et  al., 2017; \r\nGutierrez et al., 2018; Zenger et al., 2018; Houston et al., 2020; Tan and \r\nZheng, 2020)"


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" Genomic resources are available for salmon, rainbow \r\ntrout, coho, carp, tilapia, seabass, bream, turbot, flounder, catfish, \r\nyellow drum, scallops, oysters and shrimp, but have been developed \r\nfor disease and growth selections rather than climate resistance \r\n(Degremont et  al., 2015a; Degremont et  al., 2015b; Abdelrahman \r\net al., 2017; Gjedrem and Rye, 2018; Gutierrez et al., 2018; Guo et al., \r\n2018; Liu et al., 2018a; FAO, 2019d; Houston et al., 2020), although \r\nbivalve selections for ocean acidification and warming resiliency are \r\nunderway (Tan and Zheng, 2020). Targeted genome editing could \r\nmodify phenotypes of major aquaculture species (Li et  al., 2014a; \r\nElaswad et al., 2018; Yu et al., 2019; Houston et al., 2020), but uptake \r\nis dependent upon national regulatory and public approvals. Local \r\nadaptations within species with higher climate resiliencies may assist \r\nin selections (Thomsen et al., 2017; Falkenberg et al., 2019; Scanes \r\net al., 2020; Toomey et al"


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", 2020), but highlight the need to consider \r\nspecific farming environments for selective processes (Houston et al., \r\n2020). Projections of climate on aquaculture production traits are not \r\nwell understood (Lhorente et  al., 2019); therefore, genetic diversity \r\nneeds to be maintained to ensure population fitness (high confidence) \r\n(Bitter et al., 2019; Lhorente et al., 2019; Visch et al., 2019; Houston \r\net al., 2020; Mantri et al., 2020)."


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"Adaptation options at the operational level include species selections, \r\nsuch as cultivation of brackish species (shrimp, crabs) during dry seasons, \r\nand rice-finfish in wetter seasons in Thailand (Chiayarak et al., 2019), \r\nuse of salt-tolerant plants in Viet Nam (Nhung et al., 2019; Paik et al., \r\n2020), converting inundated rice paddies into aquaculture, rotating \r\nshrimp, and rice culture (high confidence) (Chiayarak et  al., 2019). \r\nSpecies diversification through co-culture, integrated aquaculture-\r\nagriculture (e.g., rice-fish) or integrated multi-trophic culture (e.g., \r\nshrimp-tilapia-seaweed or finfish-bivalve-seaweed) may maintain \r\nfarm long-term performance and viability by: creating new aquaculture \r\nopportunities; promoting societal and environmental stability; reducing \r\nGHG emissions through reduced feed usage and waste; and carbon \r\nsequestration (medium confidence) (see Section  5.10, Ahmed et  al., \r\n2017; Bunting et al., 2017; Gasco et al., 2018, Soto et al"


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", 2018; Ahmed \r\net al., 2019; Dubois et al., 2019; FAO, 2019c; Li et al., 2019; Freed et al., \r\n2020; Galappaththi et al., 2020b; Prasko et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020). \r\nIn practice, most aquaculture operations concentrate on single-species \r\nsystems (Metian et al., 2020), and barriers such as land availability, \r\nfreshwater resources and lack of credit access may limit the uptake "


id: bd77a1a44ec54e546d4e5d02e8f6bafc
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"Feed formulations and improved feed conversion can reduce climate\u0002associated stress for freshwater species, significantly reducing waste \r\nand increase sustainability (medium confidence) (FAO, 2018c; Gasco \r\net al., 2018; Chen and Villoria, 2019). Projected decreases in fish meal \r\nand global targets of limiting warming to under 2degC may increase \r\nthe ratio of plant-based diets but reduce fish nutritional content \r\n(see Sections  5.10 and 5.13, Hasan and Soto, 2017; Johnson et  al., \r\n2020). Companies provide insurance in major production areas, but \r\naquaculture is considered high risk with large levels of small claims \r\n(Secretan et al., 2007). Insurance covers natural disasters and disease, \r\nhelping to reduce and cope with climate-induced risk, enabling faster \r\nlivelihood recoveries and preventing poverty (high agreement, limited \r\nevidence) (Xinhua et al., 2017; Kalikoski et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018)"


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" \r\nFor example, small-scale shrimp farmers were willing to pay higher \r\npremiums to manage risk, after participation in government pilot \r\ninsurance schemes, ensuring greater pay-outs if a mortality event \r\noccurred (Nyguyen and Pongthanapanic, 2016; Pongthanapanic et al., \r\n2019). Technological innovations are more widely implemented in \r\nlarger operations, with Internet access promoting adoption at the \r\nfarm site (Joffre et  al., 2017; Salazar et  al., 2018). Improved farm \r\nmanagement is a key opportunity (high confidence) to reduce climate \r\nrisks on aquaculture, where Best Management Practices can increase \r\nresiliency (Soto et  al., 2018) and lower additional risk from non\u0002climatic stressors (Gattuso et al., 2018; Smith and Bernard, 2020), and \r\ndecision-tree frameworks can provide adaptation choices when events \r\noccur (Nguyen et al., 2016)."


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"Indigenous mariculture practices, such as intertidal clam gardens, \r\nhave been occurring for thousands of years, providing knowledge of \r\ntraditional practices still applicable to mariculture (Deur et al., 2015; \r\nJackley et  al., 2016; Poulain et  al., 2018; Bell et  al., 2019; Toniello \r\net  al., 2019). Indigenous groups differ in opinions on aquaculture \r\nacceptability, implications for coastal management and territorial rights \r\n(high confidence) (Young et al., 2019). Such perceptions may determine \r\nculturally appropriate types and benefits of aquaculture (employment, \r\nfood diversification, income, building autonomy and skillsets), such as \r\nin Australia (Petheram et  al., 2013) and Canada (Young and Liston, \r\n2010). Marginalised people, like small-scale aquaculture farmers in \r\nlower-income and lower-middle-income countries, are often overlooked \r\nand are not represented at a governance level (Barange et al., 2014; \r\nKalikoski et  al., 2018)"


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" Therefore policy, economic, knowledge and \r\nother support must ensure representation with traditional and other \r\nstakeholder ecological knowledge at national, regional and local levels \r\nto facilitate climate change adaptation and safeguard human rights for \r\npoor and vulnerable groups (high confidence) (Kalikoski et al., 2018; \r\nPoulain et al., 2018)."


id: 102a31af1c4d6f28c36882ae3c965327
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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"The food and livelihoods of many rural people depend on combinations \r\nof crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries, and still information on these \r\nmixed systems is scarce. Rural households in low- and middle-income \r\ncountries earn almost 70% of their income through mixed production \r\nsystems (Angelsen et al., 2014). These systems produce about half of \r\nthe world's cereals, most of the fruits, vegetables, pulses, roots and \r\ntubers, and most of the staple crops and livestock products consumed \r\nby poor people in lower-income countries (Herrero et al., 2017). They \r\ncan help in adapting to climatic risks and reducing GHG emissions \r\nby improving nutrient flows and improving the recycling of nutrients \r\nwithin the production system and by increasing food production and \r\ndiet quality per unit of land and diversifying income sources (Smith \r\net  al., 2019c)"


id: 875b1c1aba05030dd4bfb6517f4edbcc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 18839
content:
" Indigenous groups often practice mixed production, \r\nintegrating crops, animals, fisheries, forestry and agroforestry through \r\ntraditional ecological knowledge."


id: 13e8a129094770e590cc257272ab9b90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
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vector_id: 643
content:
"Globally, monitoring is increasing to fill scientific uncertainties \r\n(Goldsmith et  al., 2019) but is not often at spatial scales which \r\nfacilitate farm or regional adaptation management (Whitney et al., \r\n2020) or data complexities prevent direct uptake by operators, \r\nresource managers and policymakers (medium confidence) (Soto \r\net al., 2018; Gallo et al., 2019). Specialised industry portals (Pacific \r\nshellfish) and government-established monitoring programmes \r\n(Chilean salmon) and other observational networks (e.g., Global \r\nOcean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON)) can provide \r\nreal-time monitoring and early-warning event alerts and facilitate \r\naquaculture decision making (medium confidence) (Cross et al., 2019; \r\nFarcy et al., 2019; Soto et al., 2019; Tilbrook et al., 2019; Bresnahan \r\net  al., 2020; Peck et  al., 2020). Seasonal forecasting, downscaled \r\nmodels and early-warning systems provide valuable regional or \r\nfarm site risk information (Hobday et al"


id: 9210ca5b4f23f1aa42e5ebaea9e00d71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
", 2018; Galappaththi et al., \r\n2020b; Whitney et al., 2020), but monitoring will need to be useful \r\nfor farmers, involve farmers, and be accurate, timely, cost-effective, \r\nreviewed and maintained in order to ensure uptake (high confidence) "


id: 63b3da031cadf17c3d160ba00c69cf1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13254
content:
"Households may have a mix of aquatic and land-based food \r\nproduction, contributing to food security and nutrition and income \r\ngeneration (Freed et al., 2020; see also discussion of aquaponics and \r\nhydroponics in Section  5.10.4.3. and combined rice-aquatic species \r\nproduction in Section  5.9.4). Failures in agricultural outputs due to \r\nclimate-associated factors may result in diversification to fisheries \r\nas a way of alleviating food production shortfalls; for example, \r\nfisheries landings may dramatically increase after agricultural failures \r\nfollowing hurricanes, which can subsequently create overfishing \r\ncollapses (Cottrell et al., 2019). Where climatic impact drivers affect \r\nmultiple sectors, adaptation may become more difficult because of the \r\ninteracting challenges (Cottrell et al., 2019). One study of 12 countries \r\nwith high food insecurity levels found that fish-reliant households \r\nutilised as much land as those not reliant on fish (Fisher et al., 2017)"


id: 17f69e804fb5f4ba5e5654ca587eee2a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
" \r\nTo meet food security requirements, most of these households needed \r\nto both farm and fish, illustrating the interdependence of aquatic-\r\nterrestrial food systems."


id: 48c7c38b2d0c6cede37bddfb8426a22e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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content:
"on farm output; this applied to commercial and subsistence sectors \r\n(Tibesigwa et al., 2017). Other studies suggest increased risk in mixed \r\nsystems in semi-arid conditions. In northern Burkina Faso, Rigolot (2017) \r\nexamined different crop fertilisation and animal supplementation \r\nlevels under RCP8.5 to the 2050s. They found that, although aggregate \r\nprofits could be increased via moderate levels of inputs, the use of \r\nexternal inputs may increase risk because of marginal costs exceeding \r\nmarginal benefits in lower rainfall years. In the Western Australian \r\nwheat belt, Thamo (2017) assessed climate-change-induced shifts in \r\nfarm profitability to the 2050s. For most options, the adverse effects \r\non profitability were greater than the advantageous effects, profit \r\nmargins being much more sensitive to climate change than production \r\nlevels"


id: eb93ed9c2cabb5b2e20897ee69bbd7dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 34566
content:
" However, in the same system, Ghahramani (2018) evaluated \r\nadaptation options to 2030 and found that a shift to a greater reliance \r\non livestock could be profitable, even in years with low rainfall."


id: 54b8033e88c214ced5c1482ca6922775
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10784
content:
"As in other production systems, Indigenous groups, gender, race and \r\nother social categories can result in heightened vulnerability to climate \r\nchange in mixed production systems owing to historical and current \r\nmarginalisation and discrimination (high confidence) (Parraguez\u0002Vergara et  al., 2016; Baptiste and Devonish, 2019; Moulton and \r\nMachado, 2019; Popke and Rhiney, 2019; Fagundes et al., 2020). A study \r\nof the Mapuche Indigenous group in Chile found that marginalisation \r\nand discrimination worsened their vulnerability and observed impacts \r\nof climate change because they had less access to services and lower \r\nincomes and were not as high a priority as other groups (Parraguez\u0002Vergara et  al., 2016)"


id: 19d8712da53dc9dee12aa174023bbfa4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1533
content:
" Among fisherfolk on Lake Wamala, Uganda, \r\nMusinguzi (2018) found evidence of considerable diversification to crop \r\nand livestock production as a means of increasing households' food \r\nsecurity and income, but women had greater workloads and less control \r\nover new income sources than men. Ngigi (2017) evaluated adaptation \r\nactions within households in rural Kenya and found that women tended \r\nto adopt adaptation strategies related to crops, and men to livestock \r\nand agroforestry activities. Chingala (2017) found substantial gender\u0002and age-related differences in control of access to animal feed, animal \r\nhealth and water resources in beef producers in mixed crop-livestock \r\nsystems in Malawi. In a review of agriculture-aquaculture systems in \r\ncoastal Bangladesh, Hossain et al"


id: 2df1b8d1eaeae700ca9e5a081c2a076a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 4664
content:
" (2018) showed that existing policies \r\nand adaptation mechanisms are not adequately addressing gender \r\npower imbalances, and women continue to be marginalised, leading \r\nto increasing feminisation of food insecurity. Such studies highlight the \r\nneed to consider gender and other social inequities when examining \r\nadaptation in mixed production systems, particularly in situations in \r\nwhich men and women have different levels of control over productive \r\nassets (Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18)."


id: b3f4a183a98be99d7c7379eeb4e1afda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 25829
content:
"While shade trees can ameliorate increasing stand temperatures that \r\nwill significantly impact arabica coffee (Ovalle-Rivera et  al., 2015; \r\nSchroth et al., 2015), the opposite can also be true. Comparing shade \r\nand full-sun coffee systems in Ghana, Abdulai (2018) concluded \r\nthat the leguminous tree species providing shade and additional \r\nnitrogen led to soil water competition with the coffee trees during \r\nsevere drought, resulting in enhanced coffee mortality. On the other \r\nhand, experimentally induced drought in a soybean-intercropping \r\nagroforestry system in eastern Canada led to crop losses in the \r\nmonocropping system only, whereas N-fixation declined in both \r\nsystems (Nasielski et  al., 2015). Thus, balancing the synergies and \r\ntrade-offs of multiple component systems is necessary based on local \r\ncontext"


id: a8e4341c13b1266ba98c690cbd658a1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
content_type: text
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vector_id: 24100
content:
" While species diversification can enhance resilience to climate \r\nshocks, lack of water can constrain the implementation of agroforestry \r\npractices in arid locations (Apuri et al., 2018)."


id: f3ce7662b684e9b5ce66d2be20bc71fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 35870
content:
"The ways in which crop and livestock farmers in the Sahel have responded to climatic variability have been studied widely (Sissoko, 2011; \r\nGonzalez et al., 2012; Jalloh et al., 2013; Gautier et al., 2016; Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Zougmore et al., 2016; Segnon, 2019). Local \r\ncommunities have developed an extensive Indigenous ecological knowledge system, enabling them to make use of ecosystem services to \r\nsupport their livelihoods and to survive environmental change (Nyong et al., 2007; Mertz et al., 2009; Lahmar et al., 2012; Segnon et al., \r\n2015). These knowledge systems have been crucial in people's resilience to and recovery from major environmental change, such as the \r\nsevere drought period experienced in the region in the 1970s and 1980s (Nyong et al., 2007; Lahmar et al., 2012; Segnon et al., 2015; \r\nGautier et al., 2016; Zoure et al., 2019)"


id: 657cca98217f156bc8d093f47afba99b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 13542
content:
" As climate change became evident and a primary concern on the global agenda, interest in local \r\npeople's knowledge and understanding of climate change has also increased (Mertz et al., 2009; Tambo and Abdoulaye, 2013; Traore \r\net al., 2015; Kosmowski et al., 2016; Sanogo et al., 2017; Segnon, 2019)."


id: c1f4cee63c098e6d810e2d178e9b2d0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:18
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vector_id: 28092
content:
"Crop and livestock farmers' knowledge and perceptions of increases in temperature and temperature-related stressors (heatwaves, \r\nnumber of extreme hot or cold days) are consistent with the observed meteorological data (Mertz et al., 2009; Mertz, 2012; Tambo and \r\nAbdoulaye, 2013; Traore et al., 2015; Sanogo et al., 2017; Segnon, 2019). Their perceptions of changes in rainfall amounts have not \r\nalways been consistent with the observational record (Mertz, 2012; Segnon, 2019). Nevertheless, their perception of increases in dry spell \r\noccurrence during the rainy season and changes in rainfall pattern (onset, cessation, intensity and distribution) were consistent with the \r\nrecent observations (Barbier et al., 2009; Ouedraogo et al., 2010; Tambo and Abdoulaye, 2013; Salack et al., 2015; Traore et al., 2015; \r\nKosmowski et al., 2016; Salack et al., 2016; Segnon, 2019)"


id: 9d79531c064704b7a564633ffb5e0281
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22306
content:
" Rainfall patterns within the season, rather than the total amounts of rainfall, \r\nmatter more for crop and livestock farmers in the Sahel (Segnon, 2019)."


id: a28ead793ba23aa61ad1416d4c5ce961
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23137
content:
"often led to their demise (McNeely and Schroth, 2006; Plieninger and \r\nSchaar, 2008; Garcia-Martinez et  al., 2016; Krcmarova and Jelecek, \r\n2016; Coq-Huelva et al., 2017; Paudel et al., 2017; Doddabasawa et al., \r\n2018; Maezumi et al., 2018; Lincoln, 2020). The wide range of options \r\nto associate different trees with crops, livestock and aquaculture \r\nallows agroforestry to be practiced in most regions, including those \r\nwith precipitation regimes ranging from semi-arid to humid. While \r\nmost agroforestry systems occur in smallholder settings, there are \r\nexamples of successful industrial-scale mechanised agroforestry \r\nsystems (Feliciano et al., 2018; Lovell et al., 2018)"


id: 4597a847714a05fcca08b92242b6640c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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vector_id: 8356
content:
" Agroforestry delivers \r\nmedium to large benefits to all five land challenges described in the \r\nSRCCL--climate change mitigation, adaptation, desertification, land \r\ndegradation and food security--and is considered to have broad \r\nadaptation and moderate mitigation potential compared with other \r\nland challenges (Smith et  al., 2019c). Agroforestry is also able to \r\ndeliver multiple biophysical and socioeconomic benefits (Table 5.12)."


id: f507c9d1353f08c00c23ac32a25f6055
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36063
content:
"The adoption and maintenance of agroforestry practices require \r\nappropriate incentives or the removal of barriers (high confidence). \r\nAgroforestry adoption has been limited to date in both higher-income \r\nand lower-income countries. Several constraints need to be carefully \r\naddressed for successful scaling-up of agroforestry systems, including \r\ncosts of establishment, limited short-term benefits, lack of reliable \r\nfinancial support to incentivise longer-term returns on investments, land \r\ntenure, knowledge of and experience with trees and the management of \r\nmultiple component systems, and inadequate market access, (Coulibaly \r\net al., 2017; Iiyama et al., 2017; Jacobi et al., 2017; Kongsager, 2017; \r\nHernandez-Morcillo et  al., 2018; Iiyama et  al., 2018; Lincoln, 2019). \r\nKongsager (2017) and Roupsard et al. (2020) also highlight the need \r\nfor vertical integration of measures from local to national scales to \r\nsuccessfully address local barriers to adoption"


id: 4e8a87e1dfa3550b628ab7ad9f030621
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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content:
" Although there are few \r\nstudies evaluating the long-term performance of agroforestry systems \r\n(Coe et al., 2014; Meijer et al., 2015; Brockington et al., 2016; Kongsager, \r\n2017; Toth et al., 2017), the available results suggest that successful \r\nadoption of agroforestry practices depends strongly on the local "


id: cc87d080a6df6fc01fdec8cb0ac787ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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content:
"5.10.4.3 Links between crops and aquaponics-hydroponics as \r\nadaptation\r\nHydroponic systems produce plants in a soilless environment requiring \r\nmineral fertilizers to meet plant nutritional needs, whereas aquaponics \r\ncombines an aquaculture production system with hydroponics, where \r\nfish waste provides nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium for plant \r\ngrowth and nitrifying and mineralising bacteria act as filters (Goddek \r\net al., 2015; Perez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Ghamkhar et al., 2020). The \r\nrelative environmental impact of hydroponic systems is lower com\u0002pared with conventional systems owing to the significant reductions \r\nin land use and fertilizer usage (high confidence) (Goddek et al., 2015; \r\nDatta et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018; Suhl et al., 2018; El-Essawy et al., \r\n2019; Jaeger et al., 2019; Monsees et al., 2019; Mupambwa et al., 2019; \r\nPerez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Ghamkhar et al., 2020)"


id: 9036f431bb8501b4d1f024cbb1a63fc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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vector_id: 20223
content:
" While studies \r\nindicate that aquaponics and hydroponics have higher yields and a \r\nlower environmental footprint than conventional agriculture (medium \r\nconfidence), aquaculture and heated greenhouse production (Panta\u0002nella, 2018; Romeo et al., 2018), aquaponic production may need to \r\nbe coupled or decoupled or have double-recirculation systems to meet \r\nthe different requirements of farmed fish and crop species (Pantanella, \r\n2018; Suhl et al., 2018; Mupambwa et al., 2019). Aquaponics and hy\u0002droponics are a promising adaptation option for urban agriculture, with \r\nbenefits including a protected growing environment from climate ex\u0002tremes, reduced GHG emissions related to food transportation, reduced \r\nfood waste, rainwater harvesting and use of food waste (medium agree\u0002ment, limited evidence) (Goddek et al., 2015; Al-Kodmany, 2018; Clin\u0002ton et al., 2018; Weidner and Yang, 2020)"


id: c904172bf907d90d4e8d1d5230452dc2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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vector_id: 29189
content:
" Such systems show promise \r\nfor reducing food production environmental footprints and increasing \r\nfood security, particularly in arid or water-stressed environments (Doyle \r\net al., 2018; Mupambwa et al., 2019). Barriers to aquaponics and hydro\u0002ponics adoption include market acceptance of cultured fish species and \r\ndesirability of plant crops, lack of expertise, legal constraints or high \r\ninvestment costs and financial feasibility (Bosma et al., 2017; Al-Kod\u0002many, 2018; Datta et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018; El-Essawy et al., 2019; \r\nMartin and Molin, 2019; Perez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Specht et al., \r\n2019). There is high confidence (high agreement, medium evidence) \r\nthat a major barrier to hydroponic and aquaponics adoption is the re\u0002quirement for skilled operators (Goddek et al., 2015; Bosma et al., 2017; \r\nDatta et al., 2018; McHunu et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018), which could \r\nbe mitigated by decoupling systems and disciplines (Pantanella, 2018)"


id: 51add3c4def3dbac521b7cbd5bdb26c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10312
content:
" \r\nAs yet, these systems are not widely implemented and information on \r\ntheir climate change impacts is limited."


id: 8ddbfd69093b3630064c49442aa6c395
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19849
content:
"Recent reviews have summarised literature on production system \r\ntransitions, driven at least partly by a changing climate or changing \r\nclimate variability, that sometimes involves substantial shifts in \r\nenterprises and land configurations. These reviews found several cases \r\nof transitions affecting pastoral and mixed systems, with a range of \r\nresponses including intensification, diversification and sedentarisation \r\nas well as the abandonment of agriculture (see Section  5.14.3.1, \r\nVermeulen et al., 2018; Thornton et al., 2019). The consequences of these \r\nsystem transitions have been mixed; in some cases, the household-level \r\noutcomes have been beneficial, while in others not. Policy environments, \r\ndefined in terms of multi-level governance structures and institutions, \r\nare critical enablers of change. The vulnerability of many crop-livestock \r\nkeepers to climate change is particularly affected by property and grazing \r\nrights (high confidence)"


id: f66c7444912ae547148a840fdc660f0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36279
content:
" Identifying the winners and losers from changes \r\nin land ownership and the use of communal lands in the coming decades \r\nis a key challenge for the research agenda, particularly as climate change \r\nimpacts in the marginal lands intensify (Reid et al., 2014)."


id: 82bd4978d04d37e955f61573a72f1278
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
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vector_id: 18094
content:
"Coffee and cocoa are important crops in low-latitude regions where agriculture is projected to be heavily impacted by climate change. \r\nBoth crops are at risk from climate change impacts by 2050 (Baca et al., 2014; Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015; Chemura et al., 2016; Schroth \r\net al., 2016; Bacon et al., 2017; Schreyer et al., 2018; de Sousa et al., 2019; Lahive et al., 2019; Pham et al., 2019; Cilas and Bastide, 2020). \r\nChocolate and coffee are notable among foods in that their carbon footprint ranges from negative to high, as these industries include \r\nboth low-input agroforestry systems that have many co-benefits, and high-input monoculture systems where crops are grown without \r\nshade, in some cases on sites that have been deforested (Poore and Nemecek, 2019). While the coffee industry in many countries has \r\nalready transitioned from agroforestry to full-sun production (Jha et al"


id: 5d1d4d9feb90da50e5f6af8688129854
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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vector_id: 12166
content:
", 2014), the cocoa industry is at a turning point, with many growers \r\ndeciding whether to move to the potentially more productive 'full-sun system', despite a general view that the agroforestry system is \r\nmore resilient to climate change impacts (Rajab et al., 2016; Schroth et al., 2016; Farrell et al., 2018; Niether et al., 2020)."


id: 5753cb8b49d4590b15ecba9d28cae7a5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11229
content:
"The choice of cropping system will have wide-reaching consequences for climate vulnerability and climate justice. Coffee and cocoa \r\nare often a main source of income for small-scale producers who are among the most vulnerable to climate hazards (Bacon et al., \r\n2014; Schroth et al., 2016). Most of their produce is exported by large corporations and sold to relatively better-off consumers. In the \r\ncontext of climate justice, underlying structural inequities (socioeconomic, ethnicity, gender, caste), marginality and poverty help to shape \r\nthe vulnerabilities of small-scale farmers to climate hazards (Beckford and Rhiney, 2016; Schreyer et al., 2018). Climate change may \r\ncompound their vulnerability, if for example the loss of pollination services leads to a reduction in productivity (Avelino et al., 2015)"


id: b7f86a548255828e9a07216fcf8bd411
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26475
content:
" \r\nAdaptation needs to consider the inequities associated with the commodity chain, and the adaptative capacity of producers as they \r\nseek to move into the more advanced processing stages of the commodity chain to realise higher returns from their exports (Ovalle\u0002Rivera et al., 2015). Blue Mountain Coffee is a 'specialty' coffee associated with a protected area forest ecosystem that attracts a high \r\nprice premium owing to its distinct flavour and aroma. The livelihoods of coffee farmers in this region are characterised by multiple \r\nsocioeconomic, environmental and institutional stressors related to climate change, pests, plant diseases and production costs. Some \r\ncoping strategies employed by these coffee farmers have increased their susceptibility to future climate impacts (Guido et al., 2019). Davis \r\n(2017) showed that these coffee farmers' food security challenges could be alleviated by improved marketing of fruit tree products under \r\nshade coffee farming systems"


id: b6e8648effe2e2d80444055c1331ff37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26304
content:
" Adaptation measures in such systems need to consider co-benefits and negative trade-offs, especially \r\nin vulnerable communities, to avoid widening further the inequities, rural livelihood loss, migration and marginalisation, and ensure \r\nprogress towards the SDGs (high confidence)."


id: e541876b3fe4bb12aec7d7c47a91c1c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33568
content:
"In Europe, one estimate is that the risk of aflatoxin contamination \r\nwill increase in maize in a +2degC temperature scenario in Europe, with \r\nnearly 40% of Europe exceeding the current legal limits (Battilani and \r\nToscano, 2016). In Malawi, maize aflatoxin levels above European \r\nUnion (EU) legal thresholds are possible for most of the country by \r\nmid-21st century (Warnatzsch and Reay, 2020). The occurrence of \r\ntoxin-producing fungi will increase and expand from tropical and \r\nsubtropical areas into new regions and where appropriate capacity \r\nfor surveillance and risk management is lacking (medium confidence)\r\n(Miller, 2016). The increase in toxigenic fungi in crops, and consequent \r\ncontamination of staple foods with mycotoxins, will increase the risks \r\nof human and animal exposure (high confidence) (Botana and Sainz, \r\n2015; Rose and Wu, 2015; Battilani, 2016; Avery et al., 2019; Bosch \r\net al., 2019; Milicevic et al., 2019; Moretti et al., 2019; Van der Fels\u0002Klerx et al"


id: 7435729cb3158ba9e20a5f68ed691de7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15880
content:
"The potential for climate-change-based food losses exists in all \r\nparts of the food system--post-harvest storage, distribution and \r\nprocessing--with the potential for impacts in one part of the system \r\nto be passed on to other elements (Davis et  al., 2021). Storing a \r\nproduct destined for food use makes it available in times other than \r\nimmediately after harvest, which is especially important for products \r\nwith a pronounced seasonal availability or that are not available \r\nfrom other regions with different seasons. Storage of fresh products \r\n(meat, fish, fruits and vegetables) even with the best cold storage \r\ntechnology results in some quality loss relatively quickly. Higher \r\ntemperatures increase the cost of maintaining quality. One estimate \r\nis that an increase in outdoor temperature from 17degC to 25degC \r\nincreases cold storage power consumption by about 11% (James and \r\nJames, 2010)"


id: b77cd2c3fa2258a88c778190ae0dc0dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26391
content:
" Post-harvest storage of roots and cereals is subject \r\nto physical and quality losses from damage by mice, rats and birds \r\nand by microorganisms such as the toxigenic fungi discussed above, \r\nall of which are expected to increase in warmer and more humid \r\nconditions."


id: d20aed6986d2973976c046b5212908ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30574
content:
"Regional differences in resource availability are a key underlying \r\ndriver of domestic and international trade. Climate change can change \r\nresource availability, in terms of both quantity and quality, altering \r\ntrade flows, prices and incomes of producers. Climate change can also \r\naffect food access, and its stability can be affected through climate\u0002change-driven disruption of infrastructure (FAO et  al., 2018; Mbow \r\net al., 2019). Extreme events are expected to become more common \r\nas climate change progresses. Recent examples illustrate the potential \r\nfor trade disruptions. In March 2019, Cyclone Idai affected 1.7 million \r\npeople in Mozambique and 920,000 in neighbouring Malawi, according \r\nto United Nations (UN) officials"


id: 62e330259e97012e574670b54d54f84a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13131
content:
" The World Food Program reported that \r\nsatellite imagery of flooding in central Mozambique showed an 'inland \r\nocean' the size of Luxembourg with potentially large impacts on \r\ndistribution of existing supplies, and uncertain effects on future food \r\nproduction and availability. The extreme rainfall events in the US state \r\nof Iowa in spring 2019 destroyed large numbers of well-built grain \r\nsilos. In addition, major road and bridge damage required rebuilding."


id: 683925c5ce3c6d3f95b421abe304852
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13981
content:
"Trade plays a sizeable role in global food supplies. More than 1 billion \r\npeople relied on international food trade in the early 21st century \r\n(Fader et al., 2013; Pradhan, 2014). Domestic and international trade \r\nflows can be dramatically affected by climate change impacts (medium \r\nevidence, high confidence) (Nelson et al., 2014; Pradhan, 2014; Wiebe \r\net al., 2015). Since the impacts of climate change will not be uniform, \r\nprofitable locations for exports production will change. In addition, the \r\neffects of increasing local weather variability caused by climate change \r\nmeans increasing variability of food availability for domestic use and \r\ninternational trade. Finally, extreme events driven by climate change \r\ncan disrupt transportation along the food value chain. Countries more \r\nat risk of natural hazards that disrupt transportation and distribution, \r\nand with less extensive routes, are more vulnerable to climate change \r\nimpacts"


id: 82a430e3d94fce86f3bb909c82895c4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18078
content:
" A global multi-hazard risk assessment (Koks et  al., 2019) \r\nsuggests surface and river flooding, which are projected to increase \r\nin a warmer climate, are the main hazards for road and railway \r\ninfrastructure, increasingly disrupting international and domestic \r\ntransportation of agricultural commodities."


id: e8892a7d9dec7ecf8bc351389deb4bd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:02:19
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34093
content:
"damage. Three categories of adaptation could be considered: adoption \r\nof technologies already in use elsewhere, including Indigenous and \r\nlocal knowledge, or available or near ready that become profitable as \r\nimpacts become more severe; development of new technologies; and \r\ntaking advantage of changing comparative advantage across regions. \r\nSpecific examples of post-harvest technical adaptation options that \r\nare already available but could be more widely adopted include solar \r\ndriers, cold storage facilities and transport and use of ultrasonic \r\nhumidification of selected fruits and vegetables, a technology that has \r\nbeen shown in Europe to reduce losses in each post-harvest stage by \r\n20% or more (Fabbri et al., 2018). Hermetic storage containers using \r\ncommunity-based farmer research networks to scale out (Singano et al., \r\n2020; Wenndt et al., 2021) also show promise"


