# document

id: 8b8fc3115fcbe7649767174b00814561
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Most migration and displacement due to climate change is taking place \r\nwithin national borders and single regions (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE \r\nin Chapter 7). There is low confidence in climate change contributing to \r\nmigration from outside Europe into Europe (Gemenne, 2011; Topilin, \r\n2016; Gemenne and Blocher, 2017; Selby et al., 2017). Some economic \r\nmodels project that asylum applications to the EU might increase by \r\na third at 2.5degC GWL and more than double beyond 4degC GWL by end \r\nof the century (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017), but empirical evidence \r\nshows that applications might decrease due to growing economic and \r\nlegal barriers in the capacity of populations to emigrate from Africa or \r\nother regions (Kelley et al., 2015; Zickgraf, 2018; Borderon et al., 2019)."


id: b91f58b58d3c2a7a26993263fe5b2319
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Migration of people within Europe is predominantly triggered \r\nby economic disparities among European countries (Fischer and \r\nPfaffermayr, 2018). There is limited evidence and low agreement for \r\nclimate-driven impacts on these movements (Hoffmann et al., 2020). "


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"A number of livelihoods maintaining unique cultures in Europe are \r\nparticularly vulnerable to climate change (Table  13.2): indigenous \r\ncommunities in the European polar region because of their dependence "


id: d2a44c3d09072d5f2c94aaa7c2dd2181
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) are keystone species in northern landscapes (Vors and Boyce, 2009). Reindeer herding is a traditional, semi\u0002nomadic livelihood of the Sami. Reindeer migrate between seasonal pastures that cover 55% of Sweden and are simultaneously used for \r\nmultiple other purposes (Sandstrom et al., 2016). Reindeer herding is recognised as an indigenous right, protected by the UN Declaration \r\non the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, several UN conventions and through Swedish national legislation."


id: 15ae3d6d715afcd971031ca492804da8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Temperatures in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions have increased on average by 2degC over the past 30 years (very high confidence) (Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021). Future warming is expected to further increase winter precipitation (high confidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021) and rain-on\u0002snow events, creating a hard ice crust on the snow after refreezing (Bokhorst et al., 2016; Rasmus et al., 2018)."


id: 2d493802f4e5c6b61d510e5514970d85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"The documented and projected impacts on reindeer are complex and varied. Warming and CO2 increase result in higher plant productivity \r\n(Section  13.3), changes in plant community composition and higher parasite harassment; unstable ice conditions affect migration; \r\nextreme weather conditions during critical winter months, more frequent forest fires and changes in plant community composition \r\nreduce pasture quality (medium confidence) (see Figure Box 13.2.1; Mallory and Boyce, 2018). High snow depth and rain-on-snow events \r\nimpede reindeer access to ground lichen in winter and delay spring green-up during the critical calving period; both cause malnutrition \r\nand negative impacts on reindeer health, mortality and reproductive success (medium confidence) (Hansen et al., 2014; Forbes et al., \r\n2016; Mallory and Boyce, 2018). Lower slaughter weights and increased mortality reduce the income of herders (high confidence) (Tyler \r\net al., 2007; Helle and Kojola, 2008)."


id: 564262e559cf67aa085811b39182282d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Reindeer herders already autonomously adapt to changing conditions through flexible use of pastures and supplementary feeding (high \r\nconfidence), reducing and thereby hiding some of the negative impacts of climate change (Uboni et al., 2016). However, adaptive herding \r\npractices have themselves added significant burden through increased workload, costs and stress (high confidence) (Furberg et al., 2011; \r\nLof, 2013; Rosqvist et al., 2021). Supplementary feeding increases the risk of infectious diseases and implies culturally undesirable herding \r\npractices (low confidence) (Lawrence and Klocker Larsen, 2019; Tryland et al., 2019)."


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"Reindeer herding is significantly affected by climate change directly and indirectly (Figure Box 13.2.1) (Pape and Loffler, 2012; Andersson \r\net al., 2015). The cumulative effects of land-use and climate change have already increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive \r\ncapacity of reindeer herding to the extent that its long-term sustainability is threatened (medium confidence) (Lof, 2013; Horstkotte et al., \r\n2014; Klocker Larsen et al., 2017)."


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"Maintaining and improving the solution space to adapt reindeer herding is crucial for reducing existing impacts and projected risks \r\nof climate and land-use change (Andersson et al., 2015; Turunen et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017; Hausner et al., 2020). Lack of control over \r\nland use is the biggest and most urgent threat to the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding and the right of Sami to their culture (high \r\nconfidence) (Pape and Loffler, 2012; Andersson et al., 2015; Klocker Larsen and Raitio, 2019)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"IKLK, embedded, for example, in fishers, farmers and navigators, \r\ncan be a vehicle for detecting, monitoring and observing impacts \r\n(Section  13.11.1.3; Arctic Council, 2013; Brattland and Mustonen, \r\n2018; Madine et al., 2018; Meredith et al., 2019). Regarding risks to \r\nnorthern traditional livelihoods and indigenous communities, small\u0002scale adaptation is taking place, for example, by ecological restoration \r\nof habitats (Section 13.3; Mustonen and Kontkanen, 2019); however, \r\nlimited access to resources outside the jurisdictions of the communities \r\nlimits the scope of community-based adaptation (Arctic Council, 2013; \r\nMustonen et al., 2018; Meredith et al., 2019)."


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"on cryosphere ecosystems (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 6; \r\nHayashi, 2017; Huntington et  al., 2017; Hock et  al., 2019; Meredith \r\net  al., 2019; Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2020; Douville et  al., 2021; \r\nFox-Kemper et al., 2021) and communities dependent on small-scale \r\nfisheries, traditional farming and unique cultural landscapes (medium \r\nconfidence) (Kovats et al., 2014; Ruiz-Diaz et al., 2020)."


id: aa15dbb77271abe012b839100c2442d2
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"For Sami reindeer, herding impacts cascade due to a lack of access to key \r\necosystems, lakes and rivers, thereby threatening traditional livelihoods, \r\nfood security, cultural heritage (e.g., burial grounds, seasonal dwellings \r\nand routes), mental health (see Box 13.2; Figure 13.13; Feodoroff, 2021) \r\nand growing costs, for example, as a result of the need for artificial \r\nfeeding of reindeer."


id: 2c54bbe21ad3d9065f5e8180079a0056
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"European cultural heritage in general and world heritage sites specifically \r\nlack adaptation strategies to preserve key cultural assets (Haugen \r\nand Mattsson, 2011; Howard, 2013; Heathcote et  al., 2017; Reimann \r\net al., 2018b; Harkin et al., 2020). Key reasons are the underdeveloped \r\nadaptation actions available, resources for implementing them and the \r\nabsence of overarching policy guidance (Phillips, 2015; Fernandes et al., \r\n2017; Sesana et al., 2018; Daly et al., 2020; Fatoric and Biesbroek, 2020; \r\nSesana et al., 2020)."


id: a693552818a8403720b128d6bd5fff81
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"Climate change poses a serious threat to the preservation of cultural \r\nheritage in Europe, both tangible and intangible (high confidence) \r\n(Haugen and Mattsson, 2011; Daire et  al., 2012; Dupont and Van \r\nEetvelde, 2013; Macalister, 2015; Phillips, 2015; Fatoric and Seekamp, \r\n2017; Graham et al., 2017; Carroll and Aarrevaara, 2018; Sesana et al., \r\n2018; Iosub et  al., 2019; Daly et  al., 2020). At higher GWL, building \r\nexteriors and valuable indoor collections become at risk (Leissner et al., \r\n2015). Coastal heritage, such as along the North Sea and Mediterranean, \r\nare under water-related threats (see Box 13.1; Cross-Chapter Paper 4; \r\nReimann et al., 2018b; Walsh, 2018; Harkin et al., 2020)."


id: 6ba1df30c3deb4ca1d91941d8abcc950
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"There is limited understanding of how different social groups are \r\naffected by the four European key risks under future climate change \r\n(Section 13.11.2), and by adaptation to them. Similarly, the interaction \r\nof multiple risks across sectors and how this interaction results in \r\ndisplacement, migration or immobility of people both within and \r\nfrom outside Europe is insufficiently understood. For indigenous \r\nand traditional livelihoods in Europe, the understanding of how \r\nrisks will change at different warming levels is very limited, due to \r\ncomplex interactions with socioeconomic and political change. For \r\nEuropean cultural heritage, there is also a lack of tailored knowledge \r\nand understanding of the impacts and how to translate them into \r\nadaptation measures."


id: 135b2234776203aab426e2a9936046d0
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"Disappearing cultural heritage can reduce incomes due to loss of \r\ntourism (Hall et al., 2016), as exemplified by glacier retreat, for example, \r\nin the Swiss Alps and Greenland (CCP5.3.2.4; Bjorst and Ren, 2015; \r\nBosson et al., 2019). Glacier retreat can create a sense of discomfort, \r\nloss of sense of place, displacement and anxiety in people (Section 13.7; \r\nAlbrecht et al., 2007; Brugger et al., 2013; Allison, 2015; Jurt et al., 2015). \r\nIntangible cultural heritage, such as place names, and lost traditional \r\npractices can also be affected (Mustonen, 2018; Dastgerdi et al., 2019)."


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"As climate change is interacting with many other drivers of poverty, \r\nimproving the social position of the currently poor may increase their \r\nclimate resilience (low confidence) (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; \r\nFronzek et al., 2019). Some adaptation actions have the potential to \r\nalleviate poverty (Section 13.11.3), but adaptation can also increase \r\nsocial inequalities, for instance, when practices of disaster recovery \r\nfocus on high-visibility areas and not on low-income neighbourhoods \r\nor marginalised communities (D'Alisa and Kallis, 2016). Risk \r\ncommunication and management reliant on new information \r\ntechnologies can exclude the elderly and populations with lower \r\neducational attainment (Kesetovic et al., 2017)."


id: 8651f522b9ec285955ab7bb72bcb0711
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"This section addresses inter-regional risks between Europe and other \r\nparts of the world. Global risk pathways affecting sectors and supply \r\nchains relevant for European economies and societies involve (a) \r\necosystems, (b) people (e.g., through migration), (c) financial flows \r\nand (d) trade; and these pathways ultimately impact security, health, \r\nwell-being and food supply (Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in Chapter \r\n16; Yokohata et al., 2019)."


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"Unlike migration within the EU, migration from outside Europe to Europe \r\nis heavily constrained by restrictive migration and asylum policies \r\n(Fielding, 2011; Mulligan et al., 2014), eventually leaving people to stay in \r\nmore exposed and risk-prone regions (Benveniste et al., 2020). To reduce \r\nvulnerability in these regions, Europe can contribute to adaptation and \r\ndevelopment in regions outside Europe (Section 13.9.4)."


id: ebf97118c47f3ac5b38dc6c7715751fa
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"Recent literature (Wenz and Levermann, 2016; Hedlund et al., 2018; \r\nBenzie et al., 2019) strengthens the confidence in the AR5 statement \r\nthat 'with increasing globalisation, the impacts of climate change \r\noutside the European region are likely to have implications for countries "


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"within the region' (Kovats et  al., 2014). The exposure of European \r\ncountries to trans-European climate impact and risk pathways varies \r\ndepending on their territorial settings, national policies and position in \r\nthe global supply chain (high confidence) (Berry et al., 2015; Hedlund \r\net al., 2018; Benzie et al., 2019). There is limited evidence that Europe \r\nis more exposed to inter-regional risks than North America, and less \r\nthan Africa and Asia (Hedlund et al., 2018). The social and governance \r\ncontext in Europe make the region less vulnerable to conflicts driven \r\nby climate change than other regions, at least up to 2degC GWL (Buhaug \r\net al., 2014; Mach et al., 2019; Ide et al., 2020)."


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"(Section 13.7.1), and SLR affecting ports and cities along coastlines \r\n(Section 13.6.1.2; Nicholls and Kebede, 2012; Challinor, 2016; Wenz \r\nand Levermann, 2016; Hedlund et  al., 2018; Koks, 2018; Szewczyk \r\net al., 2018; Willner et al., 2018; Knittel et al., 2020; Kulmer et al., \r\n2020; Carter et al., 2021)."


id: 4e0b8e1e92de103cae81d06272058005
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"New literature since AR5 suggests that climate risks in Europe can \r\npropagate worldwide in response to 3degC GWL (medium confidence). \r\nKey concerns include climate impacts on European agriculture \r\nthreatening global food security (Section  13.5.1; Berry et  al., 2017; \r\nvan der Velde et  al., 2018) and the European demand limiting the \r\nadaptation potential for ecosystems in South America, Africa and \r\nAsia (IPBES, 2018; Pendrill et al., 2019; Fuchs et al., 2020). Emerging \r\nliterature suggests that coastal and riverine flood risks in Europe \r\ncould be amplified through the global financial system and generate \r\na systemic financial crisis (Figure 13.26; Mandel et al., 2021). For 3degC \r\nGWL and without adaptation, northern Atlantic flight routes and \r\nEuropean ports are projected to be increasingly disrupted by changing \r\nwinds, waves and SLR (Section  13.6.1.2; Williams and Joshi, 2013; "


id: 105466980d24752c4e86745241e30d21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Climate risks in other parts of the world can be transmitted to \r\nEuropean economies via trade networks (Figure  13.25). European \r\nagricultural imports exert a high water footprint in originating \r\ncountries already today (Dolganova et al., 2019; Ercin et al., 2019), \r\nand some crop imports, such as tropical fruits, are highly vulnerable to \r\nfuture climate change (Bras et al., 2019). Simultaneous breadbasket \r\nfailures, and trade restrictions, increase risks to food supply (medium \r\nconfidence) (Fellmann et al., 2014; d'Amour et al., 2016; Gaupp et al., \r\n2017; Gaupp et al., 2020). There is high confidence that the European \r\neconomy could be negatively affected by supply chain disruptions \r\ndue to flooding destroying facilities, heatwaves and malaria \r\nreducing productivity in labour-intensive industries and regions "


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"Arcs shows how European regions are \r\nconnected via the global financial system to \r\nother regions of the world in 2019."


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"The circles below illustrate how \r\nthese financial linkages distribute \r\nthe regional damage costs of a \r\n20-year return period coastal or \r\nriverine flood event in 2080 \r\n(RCP8.5-SSP5, with current \r\nadaptation) from Europe to \r\nthe rest of the world. "


id: 60c4f0fe05c4f33e6448b84a340dcd4f
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"For Europe in total, global \r\ncosts exceed regional \r\ncosts by a factor of 2.5 \r\n(with high adaptation) to 5 \r\n(with current adaptation)."


id: 1e339987a9aca919d3a0e14b9c18baf1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Irvine et al., 2016; Williams, 2016; Becker et al., 2018; Camus et al., \r\n2019; Verschuur et al., 2020).\r\nchallenges and address the aspiration for social justice, promotion of \r\nlocal solutions and consideration of traditional knowledge (Ferdinand, \r\n2018; Terorotua et al., 2020)."


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"et al., 2019; Groundstroem and Juhola, 2019; Adams et al., 2020). There is \r\nhigh confidence that the exposure of European countries to inter-regional \r\nrisks can be reduced by international governance (Cross-Chapter Paper 4; \r\nDzebo and Stripple, 2015; Cramer et al., 2018; Persson and Dzebo, 2019), \r\nfor example, fulfilling the targets of environmental agreements such as \r\nthe Convention for Biological Diversity (IPBES, 2018). There is emerging \r\nevidence that supporting adaptation outside Europe may generate \r\neconomic co-benefits for Europe (Roman et al., 2018)."


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"Since AR5, scientific documentation of observed changes attributed \r\nto global warming have proliferated (high confidence). These include \r\necosystem changes detected in previous assessments, such as earlier \r\nannual greening and onset of faunal reproduction processes, relocation \r\nof species towards higher latitudes and altitudes (high confidence), and \r\nimpacts of heat on human health and productivity (high confidence) \r\n(Figure  13.27; Table  SM13.22; Vicedo-Cabrera et  al., 2021). Formal \r\nattribution of impacts of compound events to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange is just emerging, for example, in the recent crop failures due to \r\nheat and drought (Toreti et al., 2019a). Also, there is high agreement \r\nand medium evidence that particular events attributed to climate "


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"Figure 13.27 |  Detected changes and attribution (D&A) of climate-related impacts on land (top) and in the ocean (bottom) are shown. Assessment is based on \r\npeer-reviewed literature in this chapter that reported observed evidence with at least 90% significance (usually with 95% significance or more) (Table SM13.22)."


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"(a) Burning ember diagrams for the risk to human health from heat are shown. The low to medium adaptation scenario corresponds to present, SSP2 and SSP4 socioeconomic \r\nconditions. The high adaptation includes SSP1 and adaptation needed to maintain current risk levels. "


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"(b,c) Illustrative adaptation pathways for NEU (top) and SEU (bottom), and key messages based on the feasibility and effectiveness assessment in Figures 13.20 and 13.24. Grey \r\nshading means long lead time and dotted lines signal reduced effectiveness. The circles imply transfer to another measure and the bars imply that the measure has reached a tipping \r\npoint (Tables SM13.24, SM13.25)."


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"change have induced cascading impacts and other impact interactions \r\n(Smale et al., 2019; Vogel et al., 2019). In recent decades (2000-2015), \r\neconomic losses intensified in SEU (high confidence) and were detected \r\nfor parts of WCE and NEU (medium confidence). (The methodology for \r\ndetection and attribution is presented in Section 16.2.)"


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"Fox-Kemper et al., 2021), are expected to cause mass mortalities of \r\nvulnerable species, and species extinction, altering the provision of \r\nimportant ecosystem goods and services (Marba and Duarte, 2010)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"This section also includes an assessment of the solution space using \r\nillustrative adaptation pathways which show alternative sequences of \r\noptions to reduce risks as climate changes (SM13.10). Low-effectiveness \r\nmeasures are followed by measures of higher effectiveness, while \r\naccounting for path dependency of decisions (Toreti et  al., 2019b; \r\nHaasnoot et  al., 2020a). The process to derive the pathways draws \r\non evidence from the feasibility and effectiveness assessments \r\n(Sections 13.2, 13.5-13.7)."


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"13.10.2.1 KR1: Risks of Human Mortality and Heat Stress, and \r\nof Ecosystem Disruptions Due to Heat Extremes and \r\nIncreases in Average Temperatures"


id: cc410fb6c3ceb60a845aa6a14cfdbde8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"There is medium confidence that high adaptation or conditions posing \r\nlow challenges for adaptation (e.g., SSP1) in the context of human \r\nhealth can delay the transition from moderate to high risk (Astrom \r\net al., 2017; Ebi et al., 2021). The illustrative adaptation pathways in \r\nFigure 13.29b,c show the sequencing of options to a high adaptation \r\nfuture for NEU and SEU. Whether or not adaptation measures are \r\neffective to reduce risk severity for people's health depends on local \r\ncontext (high confidence) (Figure  13.29; Sections  13.6.2, 13.7.2). \r\nSome adaptation options are found to be highly effective across \r\nEurope irrespective of warming levels, including air conditioning \r\nand urban planning (high confidence) (Sections  13.6.2, 13.7.2; \r\nJenkins et  al., 2014b; Donner et  al., 2015; Dodoo and Gustavsson, "


id: 881bc377a7832c3e52ccf9c4b6682c1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"2016; Astrom et al., 2017; Dino and Meral Akgul, 2019; Venter et al., \r\n2020), although air conditioning increasingly faces some feasibility \r\nconstraints (Figure  13.20). Building interventions alone have low to \r\nmedium effectiveness independent of the region. Many behavioural \r\nchanges, such as personal and home heat protection, have already \r\nbeen implemented in SEU (Section  13.7.2; Martinez et  al., 2019). \r\nTo reach high adaptation, a combination of low, medium and high \r\neffectiveness measures in different sectors and sub-regions is needed, \r\nmany of which entail systems' transformations (e.g., heat-proof land \r\nmanagement) (Chapter 16) and remain effective at higher warming \r\nlevels (medium confidence) (Diaz et al., 2019). These transformations \r\nhave long lead times, thereby requiring timely start of implementation \r\nincluding regions that are not yet experiencing high heat stress (e.g., \r\nNEU) (high agreement, medium evidence)."


id: 568c86952210823a658d88d5c7c642a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Very high risks are expected beyond 3degC GWL due to the magnitude \r\nand increased likelihood of serious consequences, as well as to the \r\nlimited ability of humans and ecosystems to cope with these impacts. \r\nThere is high confidence that even under high adaptation scenarios \r\nfor human systems or autonomous adaptation of natural systems, the \r\nrisk will still be high at 3degC GWL and beyond (Section 13.7.2; Hanna \r\nand Tait, 2015; Spencer et al., 2016) with medium confidence on the \r\ntemperature range of the transition. Projected SLR will strongly impact \r\ncoastal ecosystems (high confidence), minimising their contribution to \r\nshoreline protection (Section 13.10.2.4)."


id: 2d3598c31c48cad1aef3ebd70bf61be1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 4557
content:
"13.10.2.2 KR2: Risk of Losses in Crop Production, Due to \r\nCompound Heat and Dry Conditions, and Extreme \r\nWeather"


id: dbeca0ca3c0e46b7fa628a826147371f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Key risk 2 encompasses agriculture productivity (Figure 13.30a). It is \r\nmainly driven by the increase in the likelihood of compound heat and \r\ndry conditions and extreme weather, and their impact on crops. There \r\nis high confidence that climate change will increase the likelihood \r\nof concurrent extremely dry (Table SM13.28) and hot warm seasons \r\nwith higher risks for WCE, EEU (particularly northwest Russia) "


id: 89b1f9e17b4bca4182674344106069b6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 19200
content:
"iii. Irrigation is highly effective but it is limited by water availability (***). Beyond medium warming, it needs to be combined with other \r\nmeasures to take into account water constraints (**)."


id: fd09623b98ca15c1ba1d26ab3920f76a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"iv. Breeding of cultivars for heat tolerance and drought resistance extends the effectiveness of management adaption options (**).\r\nv. Mixed, diversified systems, agro forestry and -ecology have long lead times due to farmer socio-economic and policy constraints \r\n(**)."


id: d3c57dc4f53417587339d811a5a72f29
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"vi. At high warming a mix of most measures will be needed (***). Limitation of water availability and other adaptation options would be \r\ninsufficient to fully ameliorate losses in all regions (**)."


id: 5382b52fd6bb8cc93d50b256ed2bf208
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"a) Burning ember diagrams for losses in crop production with present or medium adaptation conditions, and with high adaptation, are shown."


id: 2cf35d17a10560188e31e9690ad2c2cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"adaptation pathways and key messages based on the feasibility and effectiveness assessment in Figure 13.14. Grey shading means long lead time and dotted lines \r\neffectiveness. The circles imply transfer to another measure and the bars imply that the measure has reached a tipping point (Table SM13.28)."


id: bb6032b7bc8867767fdf7921d0da4949
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Risk of water scarcity has a high potential to lead to cascading impacts \r\nwell beyond the water sector. These materialize in a number of highly \r\ninterconnected sectors from agriculture and livestock farming to \r\nenergy (hydropower and cooling of thermal power plants) and industry "


id: 495b408e8cd2ef566723b31d09b19e54
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"i. Presently there is already a gap between water demand and water availability in some parts of Europe (***), \r\nwhich is increasing due to climate change and socio-economic developments (**)."


id: cb52cb8e15a8cfd134545837f2d781ad
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"The ember colour gradient indicates the level of \r\nadditional risk to society and ecosystems as a \r\nfunction of global temperature change. Confidence \r\nis provided for the change of risk level at given \r\ntemperature ranges."


id: 2d68728f0c48b20e86fd58f223bcedcc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Figure 13.31 |  Burning embers and illustrative adaptation pathways for risk of water scarcity to people (Key Risk 3)\r\n(a) Burning ember diagrams for the risk of water scarcity with no or low adaptation, and with high adaptation for SEU and WCE, are shown.\r\n(b) Illustrative adaptation pathways and key messages (see Figure 13.6). Grey shading means long lead time and dotted lines signal reduced effectiveness. The circles imply transfer \r\nto another measure and the bars imply that the measure has reached a tipping point (Table SM13.29)."


id: 9ad76e85b82c194a0918d65d3b2ac8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 21894
content:
"13.10.2.4 KR4: Risks to People, Economies and Infrastructures \r\nDue to Coastal and Inland Flooding"


id: c085a9689f758ec043636744535c652f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 27848
content:
"i. Continuing a protect pathway by strengthening existing dyke systems is cost-effective, but with regional variation in benefit \r\ncost ratio. This comes with increasing path-dependency and residual risk (***)."


id: c87ab8b4c4dc5e4e82f1e9391bbdf8c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29108
content:
"a) Burning ember diagrams for the risks from riverine and pluvial flooding, with and without adaptation, are shown."


id: 7ba0bd69b9dbb6da5ac44658e0c504e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"(d) Illustrative adaptation pathways to coastal flooding risks. Grey shading means long lead time and dotted lines signal reduced effectiveness. The circles imply transfer to another \r\nmeasure and the bars imply that the measure has reached a tipping point (Tables SM13.30, SM13.31)."


id: 3a5dd82a8e97c9fae61ed4b0435468d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"12 countries in Europe if GWL exceed 1.5degC-2.5degC (Clark et al., 2016), \r\nand this represents a major threat for the European and Mediterranean \r\ncultural heritage (Figure 13.28; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; \r\nCross-Chapter Paper 4; Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann \r\net al., 2018b)."


id: 271af46821cd90f68868497da38f64f2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 3546
content:
"accommodate increase in pluvial flooding is costly, technically complex \r\nand requires time (Dale et al., 2018; Dale, 2021)."


id: 22f0e476ae5a0e46e21039bfe3826b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Avoiding developments in risk-prone areas can reduce both coastal \r\nand inland flooding risks and can be followed by planned relocation, \r\nparticularly in less populated areas. To align relocation with social \r\ngoals and achieve positive outcomes, long lead times are needed \r\n(Haasnoot et al., 2021a)."


id: 9bf5f9b431b180167a73e2858c16ff2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"In the case of river flooding, adaptation has the potential to contain \r\ndamage and losses up to 3degC GWL (Figure 13.32b; Jongman et al., 2014; \r\nAlfieri et al., 2016), provided they are implemented on time and that the \r\ntechnical, social and financial barriers are addressed (Sections 13.2.2, \r\n13.6.2). Residual risks can be reduced through early warning and \r\nevacuations, insurance and accommodate measures (Section  13.2.2; \r\nKreibich et  al., 2015). Accommodation strategies, such as retention \r\nand ecosystem-based solutions, require space, which is not always \r\navailable in cities. Both protection and flood retention are effective in \r\nreducing inland flooding risk across Europe, but with regional variation \r\nin the benefit-to-cost ratio (medium confidence) (Alfieri et al., 2016; \r\nDottori et  al., 2020). Furthermore, upgrading drainage systems to "


id: 3c1808058d1bc37b19ca83bd14dcd22c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 6811
content:
"Economic damages and gains due to projected climate risks\r\nfor 1.5degC and 3degC Global Warming Levels (GWL) relative to no additional warming"


id: a7e434bb4c732fe13b487c3db9d9fb77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"indirect and intangible losses, and limits to adaptation (Dafermos \r\net al., 2018; Lamperti et al., 2018; van Ginkel et al., 2020; Dasgupta, \r\n2021; Ercin et al., 2021; Piontek et al., 2021). With increasing global \r\nwarming, compound, low likelihood, or unprecedented extremes \r\nsuch as the European dry and hot summer of 2018 or the extreme \r\nrainfall following storm Desmond in the UK in 2015, become more \r\nfrequent (AR6 WGI Cross-Chapter Box 11.2). These events could have \r\ncatastrophic consequences for Europe, but the extent of economic and \r\nnon-economic damages and losses remain largely uncertain."


id: c4ca0104dc7025649d61b1c488db8053
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 28535
content:
"Information on risk levels and development are available for 1.7degC, \r\n2.5degC and >4degC GWL, making the determination of transitions for \r\nthe burning embers challenging and impairing a comprehensive \r\nassessment across KRs. Further efforts to extend the SSP narratives \r\nto Europe can contribute to a more disaggregated understanding of \r\nrisk severity for different vulnerability and exposure conditions, but the \r\nevidence to date remains limited to few sectors (Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n4; Kok et al., 2019; Pedde et al., 2019; Rohat et al., 2019). There is only \r\nvery limited evidence on the extent and timing of residual risks under \r\ndifferent GWL, even with high adaptation."


id: a1028332555aba13059f787e7328248a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"There is medium confidence on the effectiveness of adaptation beyond \r\n3degC GWL particularly where risks are high to very high (Figures 13.28-\r\n13.32). There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of specific \r\nadaptation options at different levels of warming that also include \r\nconsideration of lead and lifetimes. An integrated assessment, which \r\nprojects the impacts on crop production by examining the potential \r\navailability of water for agricultural purposes together with other \r\nadaptation measures, is missing."


id: 77ccd576336167ac0296a6c7b382a59f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 16409
content:
"Building on our sectoral analysis in previous sections, this section looks \r\nacross European sectors, regions and vulnerable groups to assess how \r\nclimate-change impacts are being responded to generally by state \r\n(Section  13.11.1) and non-state (Section  13.11.2) actors, and their \r\nsynergies and dependencies. Section  13.11.3 assesses if and how \r\nsystem transformations have emerged and implications for the SDGs \r\nand climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs)."


id: 792cf0cf71e76d92ecf92339389d95b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Transboundary risks, interactions between commodity and financial \r\nmarkets, market imperfections, non-linear socioeconomic responses \r\nand loss of ecosystem services may amplify losses for European \r\neconomies. Available models may underestimate the full costs of \r\nclimate change as they generally neglect systemic risks, tipping points, "


id: a6ae30ed4ae68c8713a49dd21e593f71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"The solution space for climate change adaptation has expanded across \r\nEuropean regions since AR5 (high confidence). European countries \r\nare increasingly planning to adapt to observed impacts and projected "


id: 6969d41898460ec6c0f4643816029aa0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Figure 13.34 |  Progress of national adaptation in Europe in 2018 and status of national adaptation plans and strategies in 2020. Data on the progress of \r\nnational adaptation are from the self-reported status of EU member states, as documented in the Adaptation Scoreboard for Country fiches (SWD(2018)460). The status of national \r\nadaptation plans and strategies data are from EEA Report 6/2020 (EEA, 2020a), the ClimateADAPT portal (EEA, 2021a) and the Grantham Institute database 'Climate Change Laws \r\nof the World' (Grantham Research Institute, 2021)."


id: 3d05d30a081875d7ad842ed26b28fa76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Climate resilient development (CRD) in European cities offers synergies and co-benefits from integrating adaptation and mitigation with \r\nenvironmental, social and economic sustainability (Geneletti and Zardo, 2016; Grafakos et al., 2020). Climate networks (e.g., Covenant \r\nof Mayors), funding (e.g., Climate-KIC), research programmes (e.g., Horizon Europe), European and national legislation, international \r\ntreaties and the identification of co-benefits contribute to the prioritisation of climate action in European cities (Heidrich et al., 2016; \r\nReckien et al., 2018; CDP, 2020). Still, mitigation and adaptation remain largely siloed and sectoral (Heidrich et al., 2016; Reckien et al., \r\n2018; Grafakos et al., 2020). An assessment of the integration of mitigation and adaptation in urban climate-change action plans in \r\nEurope found only 147 cases in a representative sample of 885 cities (Reckien et al., 2018)."


id: 51678d861199dc38126bf752c5a14515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"In European cities, CRD is most evident in the areas of green infrastructure, energy-efficient buildings and construction, and active and \r\nlow-carbon transport (Pasimeni et al., 2019; Grafakos et al., 2020). Nature-based Solutions, such as urban greening, often integrate \r\nadaptation and mitigation in sustainable urban developments and are associated with increasing natural and social capital in urban \r\ncommunities, improving health and well-being, and raising property prices (Geneletti and Zardo, 2016; Pasimeni et al., 2019; Grafakos \r\net  al., 2020). Barriers to CRD in European cities include limitations in: funding, local capacity, guidance documents and quantified \r\ninformation on costs, co-benefits and trade-offs (Grafakos et al., 2020). Pilot projects are used to initiate CRD transitions (Nagorny-Koring \r\nand Nochta, 2018). Malmo (Sweden) and Milan (Italy) are two examples to illustrate the strategies and challenges of two European cities \r\nattempting to implement CRDP."


id: 9ce5538b473577dd187b57b194461102
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"climate risks across scales of government (high confidence) (Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2016; Russel et al., 2020). Whereas in 2009, only nine EU countries \r\nhad developed a National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) (Biesbroek et al., \r\n2010; EEA, 2014), by mid-2020 all EU member states and several \r\nother European countries had adopted at least a NAS and/or revised \r\nand updated prior strategies (Figure 13.34, bottom; Klostermann et al., \r\n2018; EEA, 2020a). Progress is also observed at the level of the EU with \r\nthe adoption of the new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change "


id: 82794a3f2899df254ca6cdf4b255d4eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18046
content:
"in 2021 (European Comission, 2021a), and regionally, particularly \r\nin federalist and decentralised states (Steurer and Clar, 2018; EEA, \r\n2020b; Pietrapertosa et  al., 2021), and locally, with an increasing \r\nnumber of European cities planning for climate risks (high confidence) \r\n(Section 13.6.2.1; see Box 13.3; Chapter 6; Aguiar et al., 2018; Reckien \r\net al., 2018; Grafakos et al., 2020). There is evidence of action across \r\nsectors and scales, even in European countries where national adaptation \r\nframeworks are absent (medium confidence) (Figure 13.34; De Gregorio "


id: 67cb443fa9f2ceb7f6aa72d8676368cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"SLR along Europe's coast, for example, there are already considerable \r\nuncertainties during this century (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: 263ee2089b04b792414ac2b2168a4a6a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Hurtado et al., 2015; Pietrapertosa et al., 2018; Reckien et al., 2018). \r\nHowever, the implementation gap identified in AR5 (Chambwera et al., \r\n2014), that is, the gap between defined goals and ambitions and actual \r\nimplemented actions on the ground, persists in Europe (Aguiar et al., \r\n2018; Russel et al., 2020; UNEP, 2021)."


id: ef27b1b0efb2e5ce455653a7092b7295
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Adaptive planning and decision making are still limited across Europe \r\n(high confidence). Prominent examples of adaptive plans include the \r\nflood defence systems for the City of London (Ranger et  al., 2013; \r\nKingsborough et  al., 2016; Hall et  al., 2019) and the Netherlands \r\n(Van Alphen, 2016; Bloemen et al., 2019). Adaptation pathways also \r\nhave been developed for planning urban water supply (Kingsborough \r\net al., 2016; Erfani et al., 2018), urban drainage (Babovic and Mijic, \r\n2019) and wastewater systems (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r\n17; Sadr et al., 2020). Flexible strategies are increasingly considered \r\nby European countries (e.g., Stive et al., 2013; Kreibich et al., 2015; \r\nBubeck et  al., 2017; Haasnoot et  al., 2019) but require appropriate \r\ndesign to be effective (Metzger et al., 2021)."


id: ac0282392f0f7ba88efb19000ce5f887
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation action is done only in some \r\nEuropean countries (Step E in Figure 13.34) but is important for adjusting \r\nplanning, if needed (Hermans et al., 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2018), and \r\nenhancing transparency and accountability of progress (Mees and \r\nDriessen, 2019). In the Netherlands, a comprehensive monitoring system \r\nhas been put in place, including signals for adaptation that support \r\ndecisions on when to implement adaptation options or to adjust plans \r\n(Hermans et al., 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2018; Bloemen et al., 2019)."


id: e29dc882b76101e6d1ad97973a81b207
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"The scope of climate risks included in European adaptation policies \r\nand plans (Step B in Figure 13.34) is generally broad (EEA, 2018a). \r\nSystemic and cascading risks (Section 13.10) are often recognised, but \r\nmost conventional risk assessment methods that inform adaptation \r\nplanning are ill-equipped to deal with these effects (Adger et  al., \r\n2018). For example, transboundary risks emerging in regions outside \r\nof Europe are considered only by a few countries such as the UK \r\nand Germany (Section 13.9.3). European climate change adaptation \r\nstrategies and national policies are generally weak on gender, sexual \r\norientation, as well as other social equality issues (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox GENDER in Chapter 18; Boeckmann and Zeeb, 2014; Allwood, \r\n2020)."


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"While mainstreaming of adaptation into other policy domains has \r\nbeen advocated as an enabler for adaptation, it may have resulted in \r\nincremental rather than transformational adaptation, and may not be \r\nsufficient to close the adaptation gap (Andersson and Keskitalo, 2018; \r\nRemling, 2018; Scoville-Simonds et al., 2020)."


id: 33775a6d1e8c8ccb6448c85793b6e8de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Climate services to support adaptation decision making of governments \r\nand businesses across Europe have rapidly increased since AR5, partly \r\nas a result of national and EU investments such as the Copernicus \r\nC3S service (high confidence) (Street, 2016; Soares and Buontempo, \r\n2019). These services are increasingly used in NEU, SEU and WCE, for "


id: 847a25b38cac1feface0fed82cba66e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"expenditure drop in coastal protection in Spain after the financial crisis \r\nin 2008 (Lopez-Doriga et al., 2020). Governments can shift the financial \r\nburden to beneficiaries of adaptation, as suggested, for example, for \r\ncoastal protection and riverine flooding (Jongman et al., 2014; Penning\u0002Rowsell and Priest, 2015; Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018). There is also an \r\nincrease in financial mechanisms to accelerate private adaptation \r\nactions, including adaptation loans, subsidies, direct investments \r\nand novel public-private arrangements. For example, the European \r\nInvestment Bank created a finance facility to support European regions \r\nthrough loans to implement adaptation projects (EEA, 2020a)."


id: e76a0a63b192561441808c15f94b039b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Since AR5, new evidence has emerged that climate change may \r\ndeteriorate financial stability both at the global and European scales \r\n(Campiglio et al., 2018; Dafermos et al., 2018; Lamperti et al., 2019; \r\nECB, 2021a). The European Central Bank, the European Systemic \r\nRisk Board, and several national central banks in NEU and WCE have \r\nstarted to systematically assess the consequences of climate risks for \r\nfinancial stability and plan to integrate climate stress testing into their \r\nsupervisory tools (Batten et al., 2016; ECB, 2021a; ECB, 2021b)."


id: 24ba5c19b692058cca165671a2a68747
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"In addition to scientific knowledge, traditional and local knowledge can \r\nenable adaptation action (Huntington et al., 2017) as is the case with \r\nindigenous-led ecosystem restoration in the European Arctic (Brattland \r\nand Mustonen, 2018). There is a need to draw on surviving Indigenous \r\nknowledge systems in Europe (Greenland, Nenets, Khanty, Sami, Veps, \r\nIngrian) as unique, endemic ways of knowing the world that can position \r\npresent and historical change in context and offer unique reflections of \r\nchange in the future (Ogar et al., 2020; Mustonen et al., 2021)."


id: aeb32fe7e30f22e587f8710d90e1deec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 25012
content:
"Where adaptation is considered by companies, it is typically triggered \r\neither by the experience of extreme weather events that led to business \r\ndisruptions (McKnight and Linnenluecke, 2019) or is included into \r\ncorporate risk management in response to regulatory, shareholder or \r\ncustomer pressure (Averchenkova et al., 2016; Gasbarro et al., 2017). \r\nFor instance, following the implementation of the recommendations \r\nof the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure by the \r\nEuropean Commission in 2019, 50 publicly listed companies revealed \r\ntheir exposure to their physical climate risks in 2020 (CDSB, 2020). But \r\neven if companies experience extreme weather events or stakeholder \r\npressure, they may not adapt because they underestimate their \r\nvulnerability (Table  13.1; Pinkse and Gasbarro, 2019). For example, \r\nkey barriers to adaptation among Greek firms include both external \r\n(e.g., lack of support and/or guidance) and internal factors (e.g., "


id: 19eb5ecb818390916090940078d3f578
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"With higher warming levels, financing needs are likely to increase \r\n(high confidence) (Mochizuki et al., 2018; Bachner et al., 2019; Parrado \r\net al., 2020), and governments can address this higher need by cutting \r\nother expenditures, increasing taxes or by increasing the fiscal deficit \r\n(Miskic et al., 2017; Mochizuki et al., 2018; Bachner et al., 2019). Yet, \r\nthe requirement for fiscal consolidation that will be needed after the \r\nCOVID-19 pandemic (Cross-Chapter Box  COVID in Chapter 7) may \r\nalso lead to a cessation of adaptation spending, as evidenced by the "


id: 40ff4a19294db5cb187194d006e9653d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"2014; Simonet and Fatoric, 2016). There is currently little European \r\nresearch on public responses to risks other than flooding, heat stress \r\nand drought, such as vector-borne disease, and to multiple and cas\u0002cading risks (Section 13.7; van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019)."


id: 5aed4ed5050c42815cc0d6b03fe7f142
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"few resources, managerial perceptions) (Halkos et al., 2018). Lack of \r\nknowledge, feeling climate change is not a salient risk, and lack of \r\nsocial learning or collaboration appear to be key barriers to private\u0002sector adaptation (Section 13.16.2.2; Dinca et al., 2014; Andre et al., \r\n2017; Romagosa and Pons, 2017; Esteve et  al., 2018; Luis et  al., \r\n2018; Ng et al., 2018). There remains little research on private-sector \r\nawareness of, or responses to, cascading or compound risks associated \r\nwith climate change (Miller and Pescaroli, 2018; Pescaroli, 2018)."


id: c4b7555f5b2d21fbc21fc9f341c905d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 28520
content:
"There is strong public support for adaptation policy (e.g., building flood \r\ndefences), particularly within the UK, France, Norway and Germany \r\n(Doran et al., 2018). Although, in some cases such public adaptation can \r\nundermine motivation for householders to take adaptation measures \r\n(Section  13.2), public adaptation can also increase householder \r\nmotivations, with perceived efficacy of action a strong predictor of \r\nadaptation (high confidence) (Moser, 2014; van Valkengoed and Steg, "


id: 2e6ef4b9e9d6164ebd01e1394daec7cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"2019). However, there are also structural and economic barriers to \r\nhousehold adaptation due to lack of policy incentives or regulations. \r\nFor example, water-saving devices in homes could halve consumption, \r\nbut lack of economic benefits to householders are barriers to adoption; \r\nand lack of standards as well as societal hesitation may explain low \r\nlevels of water reuse in Europe (Section 13.2; EEA, 2017b). Conversely, \r\nwater meters and higher tariffs have been found to reduce water \r\nconsumption only in combination with other measures (EEA, 2017b; \r\nBryan et al., 2019)."


id: 92c5d168a6ba22685b72e823492ffb9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"The poor and those practising traditional livelihoods are particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. They rely more often on \r\nfood self-provisioning and settle in flood-prone areas. They also often lack the financial resources or the rights to successfully adapt to \r\nclimate-driven changes. Good practice examples demonstrate that adaptation can reduce inequalities."


id: 1a950b5de54556a321f28384626edde8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Social inequalities in Europe arise from disparities in income, gender, ethnicity, age as well as other social \r\ncategorisations. In the EU, about 20% of the population (109 million people) live under conditions of poverty or \r\nsocial exclusion. Moreover, poverty is unequally distributed across Europe, with higher poverty levels in EEU. The \r\noldest and youngest in society are often most vulnerable."


id: d99c00b404737640af55ca1e1eab381
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"The poor and those practising traditional livelihoods are particularly vulnerable and exposed to climate risks. Many \r\ndepend on food self-provisioning from lakes, the sea and the land. With higher temperatures, the availability \r\nof these sources of food is likely to be reduced, particularly in SEU. Poorer households often settle in flood-prone \r\nareas and are therefore more exposed to flooding. Traditional pastoralist and fishing practices are also negatively \r\naffected by climate change across Europe. Semi-migratory reindeer herding, a way of life among Indigenous and \r\ntraditional communities (i.e., Komi, Sami, Nenets) in the European Arctic, is threatened by reduced ice and snow \r\ncover. Almost 15% of the EU population (in some countries more than 25%) already cannot meet their health care \r\nneeds for financial reasons, while they are at risk of health impacts from warming."


id: e436154e6d387618d9bfa354a59a9d98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"In addition to being more exposed to climate risks, socially vulnerable groups are also less able to adapt to these \r\nrisks, because of financial and institutional barriers. More than 20% of people in SEU and EEU live in dwellings \r\nthat cannot be cooled to comfortable levels during summer. These people are particularly vulnerable to risks from \r\nincreasing heatwave days in European cities (e.g., when they already face energy poverty). They may also lack \r\nthe means to protect against flooding or heat (e.g., when they do not own the property). Risk-based insurance \r\npremiums, which are intended to help people reduce climate risks, are potentially unaffordable for poor households. \r\nThe ability to adapt is also often limited for Indigenous people, as they often lack the rights and governance of \r\nresources, particularly when in competition with economic interests such as resource mining, oil and gas, forestry \r\nand expansion of bioenergy."


id: 221d3366206031b2fbbb628c64050177
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Adaptation actions by governments can both increase and decrease social inequality. The installation of new, or \r\nthe restoration of existing, green spaces may increase land prices and rents due to a higher attractiveness of these \r\nareas, leading to potential displacement of population groups who cannot afford higher prices. On the other hand, \r\nrewilding and restoration of ecosystems can improve the access of less privileged people to ecosystem services and \r\ngoods, such as the availability of freshwater. At city level, there are examples of good practice in CRD that consider \r\nsocial equity which integrate a gender-inclusive perspective in its sustainable urban planning, including designing \r\npublic spaces and transit to ensure that women, persons with disabilities and other groups can access, and feel safe \r\nusing, these public amenities."


id: c70a2cb2774257a2c455432a8e6024bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28896
content:
"Land, freshwater and ocean organisms and ecosystems across Europe are facing increasing pressures from human activities. Climate change is \r\nrapidly becoming an additional and, in the future, a primary threat. Ongoing and projected future changes are too severe and happen too fast \r\nfor many organisms and ecosystems to adapt. More expensive and better implemented environmental conservation and adaptation measures \r\ncan slow down, halt, and potentially reverse biodiversity and ecosystem declines, but only at low or intermediate warming."


id: 2824192e1e795351d82a4ecbc806bc3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3722
content:
"In a future with further and even stronger warming, climate change and its many impacts will become increasingly \r\nmore important threats. Several species and ecosystems are projected to be already at high risk at 2degC GWL, including \r\nfishes and lake and river ecosystems. At 3degC GWL, many European ecosystems, such as coastal wetlands, peatlands \r\nand forests, are projected to be at much higher risk of being severely disrupted than in a 2degC warmer world. For \r\nexample, Mediterranean seagrass meadows will very likely become extinct due to more frequent, longer and more \r\nsevere marine heatwaves by 2050. Several wetland and forest plants and animals will be at high risk to be replaced \r\nby invasive species that are better adapted to increasingly dry conditions, especially in boreal and Arctic ecosystems."


id: c2b746ee3ba5de899c7493ff30f9eff1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Current protection and adaptation measures, such as the Natura 2000 network of protected areas, have some \r\npositive effects for European ecosystems; however, these policies are not sufficient to effectively curb overall \r\necosystem decline, especially for the projected higher risks above 2degC GWL. NbS, such as the restoration of wetlands, \r\npeatlands and forests, can serve both ecosystem protection and climate-change mitigation through strengthening \r\ncarbon sequestration. Some climate-change mitigation measures, such as reforestation and restoration of coastal \r\necosystems, can strengthen conservation measures. These approaches are projected to reduce risks for European \r\necosystems and biodiversity, especially when internationally coordinated."


id: 84998edfcacab8f73d53232961c201dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18389
content:
"Not all climate-change adaptation options are beneficial to ecosystems. When planning and implementing \r\nadaptation options and NbS, trade-offs and unintended side effects should be considered. On one hand, engineering \r\ncoastal protection measures (seawalls, breakwaters and similar infrastructure) in response to SLR reduce the space \r\navailable for coastal ecosystems. One the other hand, NbS can also have unintended side effects, such as increased \r\nmethane release from larger wetland areas and large-scale tree planting changing the albedo of the surface."


id: aec56c94c3d2854c67a0a7bea66d9879
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25024
content:
"Heatwaves will become more frequent, more intense and will last longer. A range of adaptation measures are available for communities \r\nand individuals before, during and after a heatwave strikes. Implementing adaptation measures are important to reduce the risks of future \r\nheatwaves."


id: 10fff456bf009d9c6568d811e389e72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 150
content:
"Heatwaves affect people in different ways; risks are higher for the elderly, pregnant women, small children, people \r\nwith pre-existing health conditions and low-income groups. By 2050, about half of the European population may \r\nbe exposed to high or very high risk of heat stress during summer, particularly in SEU and increasingly in EEU and \r\nWCE. The severity of heat-related risks will be highest in large cities, due to the UHI effect."


id: 9d371698305cb781e33b0207bcd45f8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22266
content:
"In SEU, people are already aware of the risks of heat extremes. Consequently, governments and citizens have \r\nimplemented a range of adaptation responses to reduce the impacts of heatwaves; however, there are limits to how \r\nmuch adaptation can be implemented. At 3degC GWL, there will be substantial risks to human lives and productivity, \r\nwhich cannot be avoided. In the parts of Europe where heatwaves are a relatively new phenomenon, such as many \r\nparts of NEU and WCE, public awareness of heat extremes is increasing and institutional capacity to respond is \r\ngrowing."


id: c2904fc62241c106e2eb0a7c4378460b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28204
content:
"During heatwaves, public information that is targeted at people and social care providers is critical, particularly for \r\nthe most vulnerable citizens. Governments and NGOs play an important role in informing people about how to \r\nprepare and what to do to avoid health impacts and reduce mortality. Coordination between vital emergency and \r\nhealth services is critical. Individuals can take several actions to effectively protect themselves from heat including \r\n(a) decrease exposure to high temperatures (e.g., avoid outdoor during hottest times of the day, access cool areas, \r\nwear protective and appropriate clothing), (b) keep hydrated (e.g., drink enough proper fluids, avoid alcohol, etc.) \r\nand (c) be sensitive to the symptoms of heat illness (dizziness, heavy sweating, fatigue, cool and moist skin with \r\ngoosebumps when in heat, etc.)."


id: 50b2cb3f2c6ac2c2736211607f892370
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10140
content:
"Once the heatwave has ended, evaluation of what worked well and how improvements can be made is key \r\nto prepare for the next heatwave. Governments can, for example, evaluate whether the early warning systems \r\nprovided timely and useful information, whether coordination went smoothly and assess the estimated number of \r\nlives saved, to determine the effectiveness of the measures implemented. Sharing these lessons learned is critical to \r\nallow other cities and regions to plan for heat extremes. After the heatwave, citizens can reflect if their responses \r\nwere sufficient, whether investments are needed to be better prepared and draw key lessons about what (not) to \r\ndo when the next heatwave strikes."


id: 1dea4498eab54ef998a1dbb51137ca85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2137
content:
"FAQ 13.4 | What opportunities does climate change generate for human and natural systems in Europe?"


id: 742e13d95cabd15b9418aeb17f58f6c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15876
content:
"Not all climate-change impacts across Europe pose challenges and threats to natural communities and human society. In some regions, and for \r\nsome sectors, opportunities will emerge. Although these opportunities do not outweigh the negative impacts of climate change, considering \r\nthese in adaptation planning and implementation is important to benefit from them. Nevertheless, Europe will face difficult decisions balancing \r\nthe trade-offs between the adaptation needs of different sectors, regions and adaptation and mitigation actions."


id: 96b7d6379cacddde4bfcb8f41ec59230
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21233
content:
"Opportunities of climate change can be (a) positive effects of warming for specific sectors and regions, such as \r\nagriculture in NEU, and (b) co-benefits of transformation of cities or transport measures that reduce the speed \r\nand impact of climate change while improving air quality, mental health and well-being. Windows of action for \r\ntransformation opportunities for large-scale transitions and transformation of our society may be accelerated \r\nthrough new policy initiatives in response to the COVID-19 crisis, such as the European New Green Deal and Building \r\nBack Better."


id: 41a50ff1b09b815ce97e35dde68f51a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7726
content:
"Indirect opportunities emerge from the co-benefits of implementing adaptation actions. Some of these co-benefits \r\nare widespread but need careful consideration in order to be utilised. For example, an NbS approach to adaptation \r\ncan make cities and settlements more liveable, increase the resilience of agriculture and protect biodiversity. \r\nEcosystem-based adaptation can attract tourists and create recreational space. There are opportunities to \r\nmainstream adaptation into other developments and transitions, including the energy or agricultural transitions \r\nas well as COVID-19 recovery plans. Transformative solutions to achieve sustainability may be accelerated through \r\nlarger changes of, for example, behaviour, energy, food or transport, to better exploit new opportunities and \r\nco-benefits. Implementation of adaptation actions can also help to make progress towards achieving the SDGs."


id: b60a943fe808ce00be8d66bf6434e185
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation is critical for CRD considering SDGs, gender as well as IKLK and practices. \r\nImplementation requires political commitment, persistence and consistent action across scales of government. \r\nUpfront mobilisation of political, human and financial capital in implementation of adaptation actions is key, even \r\nwhen the benefits are not immediately visible."


id: 3eca45bbe0d7e81830ac73999c7ce99f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7262
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: Jeffrey A. Hicke (USA), Simone Lucatello (Mexico), Linda D. Mortsch \r\n(Canada)"


id: 3c37aba3fd4171a3ef72d4d7b06f6950
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6837
content:
"Lead Authors: Jackie Dawson (Canada), Mauricio Dominguez Aguilar (Mexico), Carolyn A. F. \r\nEnquist (USA), Elisabeth A. Gilmore (USA/Canada), David S. Gutzler (USA), Sherilee Harper \r\n(Canada), Kirstin Holsman (USA), Elizabeth B. Jewett (USA), Timothy A. Kohler (USA), Kathleen \r\nA. Miller (USA)"


id: 23b9d328571f0b587984740f5409ca18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3071
content:
"Contributing Authors: Taylor Armstrong (USA), Craig Brown (Canada), Polly C. Buotte (USA), \r\nMalinda Chase (USA), Cecilia Conde (Mexico), Nikki Cooley (USA), Karen Cozzetto (USA), Ashlee \r\nCunsolo (Canada), Dalee Sambo Dorough (USA), Jeffrey Dukes (USA), Emile Elias (USA), Luis \r\nFernandez (Mexico), Halley Froehlich (USA), Elliott Hazen (USA), Blas Perez Henriquez (Mexico), \r\nMelissa Kenney (USA), Christopher Lemieux (Canada), Salvador Lluch (Mexico), Dara Marks\u0002Marino (USA), Deborah McGregor (Canada), Matto Mildenberger (Canada), Alejandro Monterroso \r\n(Mexico), Michelle Rutty (Canada), Silvia Salas (Mexico), Miguel Sioui (Canada), Gustavo Sosa \r\n(Mexico), Kyle Whyte (USA)"


id: 3b97bc207778cc854bd974de28356a3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6729
content:
"Hicke, J.A., S. Lucatello, L.D., Mortsch, J. Dawson, M. Dominguez Aguilar, C.A.F. Enquist, E.A. Gilmore, D.S. Gutzler, \r\nS. Harper, K. Holsman, E.B. Jewett, T.A. Kohler, and KA. Miller, 2022: North America. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, \r\nAdaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, \r\nS. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, \r\nNY, USA, pp. 1929-2042, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.016."


id: 8ab6bce03e7bc6de5affdbd9b320c59f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19364
content:
"FAQ 14.4 | What are some effective strategies for \r\nadapting to climate change that have been implemented \r\nacross North America, and are there limits to our \r\nability to adapt successfully to future change?  1998"


id: fc0f01a2a9e4b1323b004c234d429584
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 37153
content:
"increased risk of vector-borne (very high confidence), water-borne \r\n(high confidence) and food-borne diseases (very high confidence). \r\nChanges in climate and extreme events have been linked to wide\u0002ranging negative mental health outcomes (high confidence). The loss \r\nof access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impacted the \r\nnutrition of subsistence-dependent communities across North America \r\n(high confidence). Climate change has increased the extent of warmer \r\nand drier conditions favourable for wildfires (medium confidence) \r\nthat increase respiratory distress from smoke (very high confidence). \r\n{14.5.2, 14.5.6, Box 14.2}"


id: 243e3c94e3119112336831a5327196d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3154
content:
"Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent, \r\nintense and have affected many millions of people from every \r\nregion and sector across North America (Canada, USA and \r\nMexico). Accelerating climate-change hazards pose significant \r\nrisks to the well-being of North American populations and the \r\nnatural, managed and human systems on which they depend \r\n(high confidence1\r\n). Addressing these risks has been made more \r\nurgent by delays due to misinformation about climate science \r\nthat has sowed uncertainty and impeded recognition of risk \r\n(high confidence). {14.2, 14.3}"


id: 16c17331148215c2d15a666160abd2eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1100
content:
"Without limiting warming to 1.5degC, key risks to North America \r\nare expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century (high \r\nconfidence). These risks will result in irreversible changes to \r\necosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing, \r\nstress on economic sectors, disruption of livelihoods, and issues \r\nwith mental and physical health, leisure and safety. Immediate, \r\nwidespread and coordinated implementation of adaptation \r\nmeasures aimed at reducing risks and focused on equity have \r\nthe greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of \r\nlife for North Americans, ensure sustainable livelihoods and \r\nprotect the long-term biodiversity, and ecological and economic \r\nproductivity, in North America (high confidence). Enhanced \r\nsharing of resources and tools for adaptation across economic, \r\nsocial, cultural and national entities enables more effective \r\nshort- and long-term responses to climate change. {14.2, 14.4, \r\n14.5, 14.6, 14.7}"


id: b34b555d3f15ae8e294152f3658d077a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25723
content:
"Climate change has impaired North American freshwater re\u0002sources and reduced supply security (high confidence). Reduced \r\nsnowpack and earlier runoff (high confidence) have adversely affected \r\naquatic ecosystems and freshwater availability for human uses (medi\u0002um confidence). Recent severe droughts, floods and harmful algal and \r\npathogen events have caused harm to large populations and key eco\u0002nomic sectors (high confidence). Heavy exploitation of limited water \r\nsupplies, especially in the western USA and northern Mexico, and \r\ndeteriorating freshwater management infrastructure, have heightened \r\nthe risks (high confidence). Effective examples of freshwater resource \r\nadaptation planning are already underway, but coordinated adapta\u0002tion implementation across multiple conflicting interests and users is \r\ncomplicated and time-consuming (high confidence). {14.5.1, 14.5.2, \r\n14.5.3}"


id: 3691c2c53f24c48d7283c03d57da7285
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5976
content:
"Over the past 20  years, climate-change impacts across North \r\nAmerica have become more frequent, intense and affect more \r\nof the population (high confidence). Despite scientific certainty \r\nof the anthropogenic influence on climate change, misinformation \r\nand politicisation of climate-change science has created polarisation \r\nin public and policy domains in North America, particularly in the \r\nUSA, limiting climate action (high confidence). Vested interests have \r\ngenerated rhetoric and misinformation that undermines climate science \r\nand disregards risk and urgency (medium confidence). Resultant public \r\nmisperception of climate risks and polarised public support for climate \r\nactions is delaying urgent adaptation planning and implementation \r\n(high confidence). Drawing upon Indigenous knowledge, enhancing \r\ncommunication and outreach and undertaking collaborations to co\u0002create equitable solutions are critical for successful climate action. \r\n{Box 14.1, 14.3, 14.7}"


id: d791d7845c02ffadf3a59d1311d21f74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Extreme events and climate hazards are adversely affecting \r\neconomic activities across North America and have disrupted \r\nsupply chain infrastructure and trade (high confidence). Larger losses \r\nand adaptation costs are observed for sectors with high climate exposures, \r\nincluding tourism, fisheries, and agriculture (high confidence) and outdoor \r\nlabour (medium confidence). Disaster planning and spending, insurance, \r\nmarkets, and individual and household-level adaptation have acted to \r\nmoderate effects to date (medium confidence). Entrenched socioeconomic \r\nvulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for marginalised groups, "


id: d065fd66eb5f57147cb3db8c65cfd2b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Climate change has negatively impacted human health and well\u0002being in North America (very high confidence). High temperatures \r\nhave increased mortality and morbidity (very high confidence), with \r\nimpacts that vary by age, gender, location and socioeconomic conditions \r\n(very high confidence). Changes in temperature and precipitation have "


id: f4eecf27ff871c974fda0f787768990d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"effectiveness of adaptation strategies (very high confidence).\r\nWarming is projected to increase heat-related mortality (very high \r\nconfidence) and morbidity (medium confidence). Vector-borne disease \r\ntransmission, water-borne disease risks, food safety risks and mental \r\nhealth outcomes are projected to increase this century (high confidence). \r\nAvailable adaptation options will be less effective or unable to protect \r\nhuman health under high-emission scenarios (high confidence). {14.5.6, \r\nBox 14.2}"


id: 54ecf3fcad8d371e1fb8e9372da733b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"including Indigenous Peoples, due to the impact of colonialism and \r\ndiscrimination (medium confidence). {14.5.4, 14.5.5, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, 14.5.9, \r\nBox 14.1, Box 14.5, Box 14.6}"


id: d5012d951dba900bba42dda3634916dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31044
content:
"North American cities and settlements have been affected \r\nby increasing severity and frequency of climate hazards and \r\nextreme events (high confidence), which has contributed to \r\ninfrastructure damage, livelihood losses, damage to heritage \r\nresources and safety concerns. Impacts are particularly apparent for \r\nIndigenous Peoples for whom culture, identity, commerce, health and \r\nwell-being are closely connected to a resilient environment (very high \r\nconfidence). Higher temperatures have been associated with violent \r\nand property crime in the USA (medium confidence), yet the overall \r\neffects of climate change on crime and violence in North America are \r\nnot well understood. {14.4, 14.5.5, 14.5.6, 14.5.8, 14.5.9, Box 14.1}"


id: 3c06f13c9b6101d0f3e5381e25d9692b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6799
content:
"Escalating climate-change impacts on marine, freshwater and \r\nterrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) will alter ecological \r\nprocesses (high confidence) and amplify other anthropogenic \r\nthreats to protected and iconic species and habitats (high \r\nconfidence). Hotter droughts and progressive loss of seasonal water \r\nstorage in snow and ice will tend to reduce summer season stream \r\nflows in much of western North America, while population growth, \r\nextensive irrigated agriculture and the needs of threatened and \r\nendangered aquatic species will continue to place high demands on \r\nthose flows (high confidence). {14.2.2, 14.5.1, 14.5.2, 14.5.3, 14.5.4, \r\n14.5.6, Box 14.7.1}"


id: 1a98fd78083d4ba4de6bb8b9b7b3f1be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Climate-driven changes are particularly pronounced within \r\nArctic ecosystems and are unprecedented based on observations \r\nfrom multiple knowledge systems (very high confidence).\r\nClimate change has contributed to cascading environmental and \r\nsociocultural impacts in the Arctic (high to very high confidence) that \r\nhave adversely, and often irreversibly, altered Northern livelihoods, \r\ncultural activities, essential services, health, food and nutritional \r\nsecurity, community connectivity and well-being (high confidence). \r\n{14.5.2, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, 14.5.8, Box 14.6}"


id: b4b799b0a2ac399c9c2eb0e00f18de7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Market and non-market economic damages are projected \r\nto increase to the end of the century from climate impacts \r\n(high confidence). Estimates for the costs of climate inaction are \r\nsubstantial across economic sectors, infrastructure, human health and \r\ndisaster management. Hard limits to adaptation may be reached for \r\noutdoor labour (medium confidence) and nature-based winter tourism \r\nactivities (very high confidence). At higher levels of warming, climate \r\nimpacts may pose systemic risks to financial markets through impacts \r\non transportation systems, supply chains and major infrastructure, as \r\nwell as global-scale challenges to trade (medium confidence). {14.2.2, \r\n14.5.4, 14.5.8, 14.5.7, 14.5.9, 14.5.5, Box 14.5, Box 14.6}"


id: a45c2dd7470d80f2f18bc687a526086
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 23422
content:
"Climate hazards are projected to intensify further across North America \r\n(very high confidence). Heatwaves over land and in the ocean, as well as \r\nwildfire activity, will intensify; subarctic snowpack, glacial mass and sea ice \r\nwill decline (virtually certain); and sea level rise will increase at geographically \r\ndifferential rates (virtually certain). Humidity-enhanced heat stress, aridification \r\nand extreme precipitation events that lead to severe flooding, erosion, debris \r\nflows and ultimately loss of ecosystem function, life and property are projected \r\nto intensify (high confidence). {14.2}"


id: 57a0e6520bc78c517f901b2239b57523
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 11286
content:
"Self-determination for Indigenous Peoples is critical for effective \r\nadaptation in Indigenous communities (very high confidence). \r\nThroughout North America, Indigenous Peoples are actively addressing \r\nthe compound impacts of climate change, and historical and ongoing "


id: 54d808daa3521a69715eddd4893ecf76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"forms of colonialism (very high confidence). Indigenous knowledge \r\nunderpins successful understanding of, responses to, and governance of \r\nclimate-change risks. Western scientific practices and technology may \r\nnot be sufficient in addressing future natural resource management \r\nchallenges. Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising \r\nIndigenous Peoples' Rights, and supporting adaptation underpinned by \r\nIndigenous knowledge are critical to reducing climate-change risks to \r\nachieve adaptation success (very high confidence). {14.7.3, Box 14.1}"


id: a41ace764143e53affeadd19bc3c5fc0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 23380
content:
"Equitable, inclusive and participatory approaches that integrate \r\nclimate-impact projections into near- and long-term decision \r\nmaking reduce future risks (high confidence). Government and \r\nprivate investment are increasingly focusing on early warning and \r\nrapid response systems, climate and ecological forecasting tools, and \r\nintegrated climate scenario planning methods. Widespread adoption \r\nof these practices and tools for infrastructure planning, disaster risk \r\nreduction, ecosystem management, budgeting practices, insurance, \r\nand climate risk reporting supports planning for a future with more \r\nclimate risks (high confidence). Increased capacity to support the \r\nequitable resolution of existing and emerging resource disputes \r\n(local to international) will reduce climate impacts on livelihoods and \r\nimprove the effectiveness of resource management (high confidence). \r\n{14.5.5, 14.5.10, 14.7}"


id: dd84d9fc29e064b09d79b608d59fe8c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 32353
content:
"Near- and long-term adaptation planning, implementation and \r\ncoordination across sectors and jurisdictions supports equitable \r\nand effective climate solutions (high confidence). Recognition of \r\nthe need for adaptation across North America is increasing, but action \r\nhas been mostly gradual, incremental and reactive (high confidence). \r\nCurrent practices will be increasingly insufficient without coordination \r\nand integration of efforts through equitable policy focused on \r\nmodifying land-use impacts, consumption patterns, economic activities \r\nand emphasising NbS (high confidence). Transformational, long-term \r\nadaptation action that reduces risk and increases resilience can address \r\nrapidly escalating impacts in the long-term, especially if coupled with \r\nmoderate to high mitigation measures (high confidence). {14.7}"


id: 79d7255cef27c2ad65d8029904ee6e90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16743
content:
"Earth's climate is currently changing in significant ways as a result \r\nof human activities, and future projections indicate continued and \r\npossibly accelerating change without reductions in greenhouse \r\ngas (GHG) emissions (Gutierrez et  al., 2021; IPCC, 2021). Climate \r\nchange affects human and natural systems; this chapter provides an \r\nassessment of present and future climate-change impacts, risks and \r\nadaptation for North America, including Mexico, Canada, the USA and \r\ncoastal waters within the 370-km exclusive economic zone. We do not \r\nconsider Hawaii and other island territories of the USA in depth as \r\nthey are assessed in Chapter 15. Chapter 14 assesses evidence from \r\nArctic Canada and Alaska, which is synthesised in Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n6 Polar Regions (CCP6)."


id: 39f86f738607268a37c191acd90189f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Evidence from Indigenous knowledge (IK) systems is included in this \r\nchapter to assess climate-change risks and solutions in North America \r\nfollowing the framing provided in Chapter 1 Special Report on the Ocean \r\nand Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) (Abram et  al., 2019) \r\nand Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) (IPCC, 2019a). \r\nIndigenous contributing authors provided this assessment, reflecting the \r\nimportance of meaningfully including IK in assessment processes (Ford, \r\n2012; Ford et  al., 2016; Hill et  al., 2020). This addition represents an \r\nimportant advancement since AR5 (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014)."


id: f340973f1e2f00d761dd41f345e40528
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Our main point of departure was the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for \r\nWGII (IPCC, 2014). Key findings drawn from the Executive Summary for \r\nthe North America chapter are summarised in Table 14.1. Subsequent \r\nIPCC reports, such as Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC \r\n(SR1.5) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; IPCC, 2018), SROCC (IPCC, \r\n2019b) and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019a), also informed the assessment. We \r\nadditionally incorporated recent national climate assessments of the \r\nUSA (USGCRP, 2018) and Canada (Bush and Lemmen, 2019; Warren \r\nand Lulham, 2021) as well as the Sixth National Communication of \r\nMexico to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate \r\nChange (SEMARNAT and INECC, 2018)."


id: f79d32589d32f24fac486b4ac5e50553
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Figure 14.1 |  North American regions and sub-regions, adapted from national climate assessments, and city names, referred to in discussion of local and \r\nregional climate-change impacts and adaptation. White dashed line denotes the southern boundary across North America of the Arctic region defined in Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 6."


id: b48951ad88c86cdbca83bc3b6ca9cafd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Snowpack and snow extent across much of Canada and the western \r\nUSA have declined as temperatures have increased (very high \r\nconfidence) (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Gutierrez et al., 2021a; Kunkel \r\net al., 2016; Mote et al., 2018; Mudryk et al., 2018; Derksen et al., 2019). \r\nWarm 'snow droughts' describing a deficit of snowpack available for \r\nrunoff, even in the absence of a winter precipitation deficit (Cooper \r\net al., 2016; Harpold et al., 2017), have become more common in North \r\nAmerican mountains (Sproles et al., 2016; Nicholls et al., 2018; Pershing \r\net al., 2018). Glaciers have retreated over the past half-century at high \r\nelevation across North America (Frans et al., 2018; Zemp et al., 2019) \r\nand in the Arctic (Burgess, 2017; Box et al., 2019; Derksen et al., 2019). \r\nLake ice in Canada, south of the Arctic region delineated in Figure 14.1, \r\nhas declined (Alexeev et al., 2016; Derksen et al., 2019)."


id: e07fea84b369a053940bfca6e811d0b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Trends in observed and projected physical climate variables, and \r\nchanges in extreme weather and climate events, are summarised in \r\nthis section. Many of the assessments here are adapted from AR6 WGI \r\n(IPCC, 2021), especially Chapters 11 (Seneviratne et al., 2021) and 12 \r\n(Ranasinghe et  al., 2021), and the Atlas (Gutierrez et  al., 2021a,b). \r\nRanasinghe et  al., 2021, Section  12.4.6, assesses North American \r\nclimatic impact drivers without assessing their impacts or associated \r\nrisks. The WGI assessments are augmented in this section with \r\nregionally specific support from recent national climate assessments \r\nor original literature."


id: 207a72d00894cb9da3d1252f490585f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"There is limited evidence of trends in meteorological or hydrological \r\ndroughts over the historical record (see Douville et  al. (2021) and \r\nSeneviratne et al. (2021) for multiple perspectives on drought; Wehner \r\net al., 2017), but there is medium confidence in increasing atmospheric \r\nevaporative demand acting to intensify surface aridity during recent \r\ndroughts (e.g., US-SW) (Seneviratne et al., 2021; Williams et al., 2020). \r\nThe ongoing multi-decadal dry period in the Colorado River basin is as \r\nextreme as any drought in the past 1000 years (Murphy and Ellis, 2019; \r\nWilliams et al., 2020)."


id: e56a245493bb454e0b8b31ad33b8b5e8
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"The proportion of hurricanes in stronger categories has likely increased \r\nglobally over the past 40  years, with medium confidence that the \r\nonshore propagation speed of hurricanes making landfall in the USA \r\nhas slowed detectably since 1900 (Seneviratne et  al., 2021; Kossin, \r\n2018), contributing to detectable increases in local rainfall and coastal \r\nflooding associated with these storms. There is high confidence\r\n(Seneviratne et  al., 2021) that anthropogenic climate change has \r\ncontributed to extreme precipitation associated with recent intense \r\nhurricanes, such as Harvey in 2017."


id: cddfaf9735d6b77b818bcc51589ba593
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"North American sea ice extent and volume (thickness) have declined \r\nup to 10% per decade since 1981 (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; Ding \r\net al., 2017; Mudryk et al., 2018; Derksen et al., 2019; IPCC, 2019b), \r\nwith changes accelerating during this time (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Schweiger et  al., 2019), resulting in longer and larger \r\nperiods of open water (Wang et  al., 2018a). Recent (2018) sea ice \r\nextent in the Bering Sea was the lowest in a 5500-year record and \r\nappears to lag atmospheric CO2 by about two decades (Jones et al. \r\n2021). High Arctic sea ice retreat since 1971 and increases in open\u0002water duration in the most recent decade are unprecedented (Box \r\net al., 2019) and most pronounced in the Chukchi, Bering and Beaufort \r\nseas (US-AK, CA-NW) (high confidence) (Wang and Overland, 2015; \r\nJones et al., 2020)."


id: 89600c7746ce2d1bb8f4fd026ac31bf8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Warming of North American offshore waters is significant and \r\nattributable to human activities, particularly along the Atlantic coast, \r\ncontributing to sea level rise (SLR) through thermal expansion (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; IPCC, 2019b). Rates of SLR \r\nhave accelerated along most North American coasts during the past "


id: a02ff2d2f3fb3bb7eaf9135b74d99e07
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content:
"(B,C) Projected change in annual mean temperature over land relative to the 1986-2005 average, associated with 2degC or 4degC global warming. \r\n(D,E) Like (B,C) but for projected percentage change in annual precipitation."


id: bd6f52ae3c5e0b207ebb2ff8c7c451c
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"(F,G) Like (B,C) but for projected change in number of days per year with maximum temperature >40degC ('TX40')."


id: ff461055c3dfbebf998af2b44668c1dc
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"three decades, excepting coastlines in southern Alaska (US-AK) and \r\nnortheastern Canada (CA-QC, CA-NE) where land is rising (Ranasinghe \r\net  al., 2021; Greenan et  al., 2018). Tidal flooding frequency has \r\nincreased in the North Pacific from once every 1-3  years to every \r\n6-12 months (Sweet et al., 2014)."


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content:
"are strongly sensitive to future GHG concentrations (Figure  14.2). \r\nClimatic hazards affected by hydrological change, including humidity\u0002inclusive heat stress, extreme precipitation and more intense storms, \r\nare projected to intensify."


id: 362e53febcffd61629bf88ea05cc01c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Pronounced amplification of warming across the Arctic and continental \r\nintensification of warming (Figure  14.2B,C) is projected with high \r\nconfidence (Doney et al., 2007; Vose et al., 2017). Extreme heatwaves \r\nare projected to intensify, particularly in MX-NW, MX-N, MX-NE, US\u0002SW, US-NP and US-SP (Figure  14.2F,G) and become more frequent \r\nand longer in duration as average temperature rises across North \r\nAmerica (Seneviratne et al., 2021). Extreme cold events are projected \r\nto decrease in severity (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Wuebbles et al., 2014)."


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"Acidification of North American coastal waters has occurred in \r\nconjunction with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (Mathis \r\net al., 2015; Jewett and Romanou, 2017; Claret et al., 2018) combined \r\nwith other local acidifying inputs such as nitrogen and sulphur \r\ndeposition (Doney et  al., 2007) and freshwater nutrient input (very \r\nhigh confidence) (Strong et al., 2014; IPCC, 2019b). Oxygen minimum \r\nzones, particularly in the North Pacific south of US-AK, have expanded \r\nin volume and O2 has declined since 1970 (IPCC, 2019b)."


id: f4794d28b23265bbb11ec2fcb50d0d68
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Total precipitation is projected to increase across the northern half \r\nof North America (very high confidence) and decrease in southwest \r\nNorth America (MX-SW, MX-NW, US-SW) (medium confidence) \r\n(Figure  14.2D,E; Gutierrez et  al., 2021b). Further increases in the \r\nintensity of locally heavy precipitation are very likely across the \r\ncontinent, as a greater fraction of precipitation falls in intense events \r\n(Easterling et al., 2017; Prein et al., 2017a; Zhang et al., 2019a)."


id: 80c1e9bb8be4303d7c81523f909e45e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Additional reduction in polar sea ice is virtually certain (Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021; Mudryk et al., 2021), with the North American Arctic projected\r\nto be seasonally ice free at least once per decade under 2degC of global \r\nwarming (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019b; Mioduszewski et  al., 2019; \r\nMudryk et al., 2018). Duration of freshwater lake ice across the northern \r\nUSA and southern Canada is projected to diminish (high confidence) \r\n(Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Dibike et al., 2012; Mudryk et al., 2018; Sharma \r\net al., 2019)."


id: bc14f45573282e353f416d5217709fa2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"High-humidity hazards are projected to increase (medium confidence) \r\nin regions around the Gulf of Mexico and southeast North America \r\n(US-SE, US-SP, MX-NE, MX-SE) (Zhao et  al., 2015). In subtropical \r\nregions that are less influenced by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico \r\n(including US-SW, US-SP, MX-NW and MX-N), the combination of \r\nhigher temperature and less total precipitation leads to projections of \r\nincreased aridity: drier surface conditions, higher evaporative demand \r\nby plants and more intense droughts (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Jones \r\nand Gutzler, 2016; Easterling et  al., 2017; Escalante-Sandoval and \r\nNunez-Garcia, 2017)."


id: 458d29fc76e59272baa371765b30855f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Ocean surface temperature is very likely to increase in future decades \r\nin waters around North America (Jewett and Romanou, 2017; Greenan \r\net  al., 2018), but at a slower rate than air temperature over the \r\ncontinent. Rates of change are projected to be relatively higher in \r\nnorthern latitudes, with most rapid warming in summer in the Arctic \r\nand Bering Sea (US-AK, CA-NW) (Wang and Overland, 2015; Wang \r\net al., 2018a; Hermann et al., 2019)."


id: 338c29686fecf1e8ac9090f7ac8e9be1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"As temperatures rise, snow extent, duration of snow cover and \r\naccumulated snowpack are virtually certain to decline in subarctic \r\nregions of North America (Gutierrez et al., 2021a; McCrary and Mearns, \r\n2019; Mudryk et  al., 2021), with corresponding effects on snow\u0002related hydrological changes (high confidence). These changes include \r\ndeclines in snowmelt runoff (Li et  al., 2017), increased evaporative \r\nlosses during snow ablation (Foster et  al., 2016; Milly and Dunne, \r\n2020), as well as increases in the frequency of rain-on-snow events \r\n(Jeong and Sushama, 2018a) and consecutive snow drought years in \r\nwestern North America (Marshall et al., 2019a)."


id: 8074f3ac4fddfcc1394595ea0c23ffaa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Sea level rise is virtually certain to continue along North American \r\ncoastlines except for parts of US-AK and around Hudson Bay (HB) \r\nwith geographically variable rates of rise (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; \r\nRanasinghe et  al., 2021; see Box  14.4). Relatively greater SLR is \r\nprojected along the US-SE and MX-SW coastlines and relatively less \r\nalong CA-BC and US-NW (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021; see Box 14.4) (Fasullo and Nerem, 2018; Greenan et al., 2018 \r\nIPCC, 2019b)."


id: 675e6164ef1f6d9f480630f51db1a4a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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content:
"Climate change is projected to magnify the impact of tropical cyclones \r\nin US-NE, MX-NE, US-SP, and US-SE by increasing rainfall (Patricola and \r\nWehner, 2018) and extreme wind speed (high confidence) and slowing \r\nthe speed of land-falling storms (limited evidence, low confidence) \r\n(Seneviratne et al., 2021; Kossin, 2018). The coastal region at severe \r\nrisk from tropical storms is projected to expand northward within US\u0002NE (medium confidence) (Kossin et al., 2017)."


id: 4409d586612d3e9ef82e962173f8a64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 8114
content:
"Ocean acidification (OA) along North American coastlines is projected \r\nto increase (very high confidence) (Jewett and Romanou, 2017). The \r\nfrequency and extent of oxygen minimum and hypoxic zones are "


id: 7cebfa7dbd1b63d6831aede49043e48b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"FAQ 14.1 | How has climate change contributed to recent extreme events in North America and their impacts?\r\nMultiple lines of evidence indicate that climate change is already contributing to more intense and more frequent extreme events across North \r\nAmerica. The impacts resulting from extreme events represent a huge challenge for adapting to future climate change."


id: 76bfb21f3ddea7107e93abb3958b48f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Extreme events are a fundamental part of how we experience weather and climate. Exceptionally hot days, torrential \r\nrainfall and other extreme weather events have a direct impact on people, communities and ecosystems. Extreme \r\nweather can lead to other impactful events such as droughts, floods or wildfires. In a changing climate, people \r\nfrequently ask whether extreme events are generally becoming more severe or more frequent, and whether an \r\nactual extreme event was caused by climate change."


id: 72af01d488eed3da7d09f56543072dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Because really extreme events occur rarely (by definition), it can be very difficult to assess whether the overall severity \r\nor frequency of such events has been affected by changing climate. Nevertheless, careful statistical analysis shows that \r\nrecord-setting hot temperatures in North America are occurring more often than record-setting cold temperatures \r\nas the overall climate has gotten warmer in recent decades. The area burned by large wildfires in the western USA \r\nhas increased in recent decades. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events are more difficult to detect with \r\nconfidence, because the natural variability of precipitation is so large and the observational database is limited."


id: b91870a5315b7b52ca02d88ac21cb975
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Our understanding of how individual extreme weather events have been influenced by climate change has improved \r\ngreatly in recent years. Climate scientists have developed a formal technique ('event attribution', described in WGI \r\nFAQ 11.3) for assessing how climate change affects the severity or frequency of a particular extreme event, such \r\nas a record-breaking rainfall event or a marine heatwave. This is a challenging task, because any particular event \r\ncan be caused by a combination of natural variability and climate change. Event attribution is typically carried out \r\nusing models to compare the probability of a specific event occurring in today's climatic environment relative to "


id: f4269db916a76f0c50af6107e2345d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"the probability that the same event might have occurred in a modelled climate in which atmospheric GHGs have \r\nnot risen due to human activities. Using this strategy, multiple studies have estimated that the historically extreme \r\nrainfall amount that fell across the Houston area from Hurricane Harvey (2017) was three to ten times more likely as \r\nthe result of climate change."


id: c6334fd46edee9019c42d839f6af9a71
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"The impacts from extreme events depend not just on physical climate system hazards (temperature, precipitation, \r\nwind, etc.), but also on the exposure and vulnerability of humans or ecosystems to these events. For example, \r\ndamage from land-falling hurricanes along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico is expected to increase as very strong \r\nhurricanes become more frequent and intense due to climate change. But damage would also increase with \r\nadditional construction along the shoreline, because coastal development increases exposure to hurricanes. And if \r\nsome structures are constructed to poor building standards, as was the case when hurricane Andrew made landfall \r\nin Florida in 1992, then vulnerability to hurricane-caused impacts is increased."


id: a08a81938168220f9d1f5448e04512a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Climate change also contributes to impacts from extreme events by making some building codes and zoning restrictions \r\ninadequate or obsolete. Many North American communities limit development in areas known to be flood-prone, \r\nto minimise exposure to flooding. But as climate change expands the areas at risk of exposure to flooding beyond \r\nhistorical floodplains, the impacts of potential flooding are increased, as Hurricane Harvey demonstrated. Adapting to \r\nclimate change may require retrofits for existing structures and revised zoning for new construction. Some structures \r\nand neighbourhoods may need to be abandoned altogether to accommodate expanded flooding risk."


id: 141b3aa9703166e70f98390b6611d90e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Climate change can be an added stress that increases impacts from extreme events, combined with other non-climatic \r\nstressors. For example, climate change in western North America has contributed to more extreme fire weather. \r\nThe devastating impacts of recent wildfire outbreaks, such as occurred across western Canada in 2016 and 2017, the \r\nwestern United States in 2018 and 2020, and both countries in 2021, are to some extent associated with expanded \r\ndevelopment and forest management practices (such as policies to suppress low-intensity fires, allowing fuel to \r\naccumulate). The effects of development and forest management have dramatically increased the exposure and \r\nvulnerability of communities to intense wildfires. Climate change has added to these stressors: warming temperature \r\nleads to more extreme weather conditions that are conducive to increasingly severe wildfires."


id: d52f01d9a77436c3a43e6465f5014210
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Biodiversity is affected by climate change in this way too. For example, numerous bird populations across North \r\nAmerica are estimated to have declined by up to 30% over the past half-century. Multiple human-related factors, \r\nincluding habitat loss and agricultural intensification, contribute to these declines, with climate change as an added \r\nstressor. Increasingly extreme events, such as severe storms and wildfires, can decimate local populations of birds, \r\nadding to existing ecological threats."


id: 6e18f88c269f53421334879bcbe8e008
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"projected to increase, with less confidence, exacerbated by climate\u0002driven eutrophication and increasing stratification (Altieri and Gedan, \r\n2015; IPCC, 2019b)."


id: 58cd44ccdef4f28750674852fccd0f16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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vector_id: 11467
content:
"Fielding, 2020; Wong-Parodi and Feygina, 2020). Public perception \r\nof consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change can be an \r\nimportant gateway belief, which establishes a crucial precondition \r\nfor public policy action (van der Linden et al., 2015; van der Linden \r\net  al., 2019) by influencing the assessment of climate-change risks \r\nand opportunities, and formulation of appropriate mitigation and \r\nadaptation responses (Ding et al., 2011; Bolsen et al., 2015; Drews \r\nand Van den Bergh, 2016; Doll et al., 2017; Mase et al., 2017; Morton \r\net al., 2017). Trust in experts, institutions and environmental groups \r\nis also important (Cologna and Siegrist, 2020; Termini and Kalafatis, \r\n2021)."


id: 1e61e718ab2fc6bc907a1baff1457b65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"The majority of the climate science community has reached consensus \r\nthat mean global temperature has increased and human activity is a \r\nmajor cause (Oreskes, 2004; Anderegg et al., 2010; Cook et al., 2013; \r\nCook et al., 2016; IPCC, 2021), setting the context for public policy \r\naction. Despite expert scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate \r\nchange, there is polarisation and an ongoing debate over the reality of \r\nanthropogenic climate change in the public and policy domains, with \r\nattendant risks to society (high confidence) (Doran and Zimmerman, \r\n2009; Ballew et al., 2019; Druckman and McGrath, 2019; Hornsey and "


id: 8844746fac99e42256945804bfb3b449
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Rhetoric and misinformation on climate change and the deliberate \r\nundermining of science have contributed to misperceptions of the \r\nscientific consensus, uncertainty, disregarded risk and urgency, and \r\ndissent (high confidence) (Ding et  al., 2011; Oreskes and Conway, \r\n2011; Aklin and Urpelainen, 2014; Cook et al., 2017; van der Linden \r\net al., 2017). Additionally, strong party affiliation and partisan opinion \r\npolarisation contribute to delayed mitigation and adaptation action, "


id: 81a3e121f2cc64cb573ad107a69f6a00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Indigenous knowledge (see Box 14.1) as well as lived experience of \r\nrecent changes in ice, weather patterns, and species' phenology and \r\ndistribution, Indigenous Peoples recognise that change is occurring in \r\ntheir communities and have effective solutions that are grounded in \r\nIndigenous world views (Harrington, 2006; Turner and Clifton, 2009; \r\nNorton-Smith et al., 2016a; Savo et al., 2016; Maldonado et al., 2017; \r\nChisholm Hatfield et al., 2018)."


id: 192c75eee1bedb74e5ed4acb59f61644
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Building consensus for action on climate change is influenced by \r\nindividual factors (e.g., ideology, world view, trust, partisan identity, \r\nreligion, education, age) and the broader societal context (e.g., \r\nculture, media coverage and content, political climate, economic \r\nconditions) (high confidence) (McCright and Dunlap, 2011; Brulle \r\net  al., 2012; Hornsey et  al., 2016; Arbuckle, 2017; Pearson et  al., \r\n2017; Bolsen and Shapiro, 2018; Ballew et  al., 2020; Cologna and \r\nSiegrist, 2020; Goldberg et al., 2020). In a multi-country assessment \r\nof acceptance of global warming influenced by ideology (e.g., \r\nconspiratorial ideation, individualism, hierarchy, and left-right and \r\nliberal-conservative political orientation), the USA uniquely had \r\nthe strongest link to doubt out of 25 countries for all factors, while \r\nCanada's dominant influence on non-acceptance was conservative \r\npolitical ideology, and for Mexico, there were no ideological effects \r\n(Hornsey et al., 2018)."


id: 2933213aef3b98bd84fb402723811a3a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Political affiliation and partisan group identity contribute to polarisation \r\non the causes and state of climate change, most notably in the USA \r\n(medium confidence). Fewer US republicans hold the belief that human \r\nactivity causes climate change than democrats (Bolsen and Druckman, \r\n2018; Druckman and McGrath, 2019). Partisanship in the USA with \r\nrespect to climate change has evolved over the period 1997-2016; \r\ninitially, it was limited, but since 2008, there has been a widening, \r\nmore entrenched partisan 'divide' (Dunlap et al., 2016). The millennial \r\ngeneration (born in the 1980s and 1990s), emerging as the largest \r\nUS population cohort, has a potentially important political influence-\r\nreduction in polarisation-as they show relatively higher levels of concern \r\nand acceptance of climate-change science than older age groups. \r\nPolitical affiliation does not have as strong an effect on their climate \r\nchange beliefs (Corner et al., 2015; Ross et al., 2019)."


id: 9bf1aa30177035b145871b0fd3f93820
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"Communicating to educate or enhance knowledge on climate-change \r\nscience or consensus can, but does not necessarily lead individuals \r\nto revise their beliefs (medium confidence) (Bolsen et  al., 2015; \r\nDruckman and McGrath, 2019). People may reject new information \r\nthat conflicts with their beliefs or not consider it credible, as political \r\nideology and partisan affiliation are strong influences (Arbuckle, \r\n2017). The climate-change issue may create resistance from \r\nindividuals with conservative political ideologies and hierarchical, \r\nindividualistic world views because it ascribes responsibility to \r\ndeveloped, industrialised countries for emissions and brings about \r\nmore environmental regulation (Stevenson et al., 2015). Lack of trust \r\nin scientific consensus on climate change may actually originate \r\nfrom opposition by US conservatives to the perceived advocacy for \r\ndifferent climate-change policy approaches that challenge their world \r\nviews (Bolsen and Druckman, 2018)."


id: f66b86e3b36eeb19ec7083f913b334ce
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"et al., 2015; Doll et al., 2017; Mase et al., 2017; Morton et al., 2017; \r\nZanocco et  al., 2018). Place-based and local-focused assessments \r\nallow individuals to more readily assess and adapt to risks as well as \r\nidentify roles and responsibilities in the face of multiple, interacting \r\nand often unequally distributed climate-change impacts (Khan et al., \r\n2018; Galway, 2019). Interest in preserving local archaeological \r\nsites threatened by SLR initiated collaboration and co-production of \r\nknowledge among disparate US communities: citizens, archaeologists, \r\npreservationists, planners, land managers and Indigenous Peoples \r\n(Fatoric and Seekamp, 2019; Dawson et al., 2020)."


id: b611646c21ca7bcbdaeed0b6f9ffd17e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Psychological distancing-the perception that the greatest impacts \r\noccur sometime in the distant future and to people and places far \r\naway-can lead to discounting of risk and the need for adaptation \r\n(medium confidence) (Leviston et al., 2014; Mildenberger et al., 2019). \r\nCommunication directed at local and personal framing of climate\u0002change impact and risk information is one option for addressing low \r\nsalience (Bolsen et al., 2019) particularly related to established risks "


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"McNeeley and Shulski, 2011). Examples of theoretical knowledge \r\nsystems include Indigenous calendars of seasonal change and systems \r\nof laws and protocols for environmental stewardship (see Box 14.1) \r\n(Kootenai Culture Committee, 2015; Donatuto et al., 2020)."


id: 7279c5790f88b2ac93595c20eafc07e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Climate-change impacts have harmful effects on Indigenous Peoples' \r\npublic health, physical health and mental health, including harmful \r\neffects connected to the cultural and community foundations of \r\nhealth (very high confidence). Health and climate change is a major \r\nissue for Indigenous Peoples (Section 14.5.6; Ford, 2012; Ford et al., \r\n2014; Gamble et al., 2016; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Middleton et al., \r\n2020a; Donatuto et al., 2021). Climate-change impacts and risks affect \r\nIndigenous Peoples' health negatively in different ways. Indigenous \r\nhealth, as tied to nutrition and exercise, is threatened when local foods "


id: a68cab98e65488dcafe6ba6226726047
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"Box 14.1 | Integrating Indigenous 'Responsibility-Based Thinking' into Climate-Change \r\nAdaptation and Mitigation Strategies"


id: f4fce6ad49fe23b4847fcb7e78144bbb
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"Indigenous Peoples throughout North America have experienced five centuries of territorial expropriation, loss of access to natural \r\nresources and, in many cases, barriers to the use of their sacred sites (Gabbert, 2004; Louis, 2007). The history of Indigenous struggles to \r\npreserve distinct cultural knowledge and assert autonomy in the face of colonialism has shaped land-use patterns and relationships with \r\ntraditional territories (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18; Alfred and Corntassel, 2005; Tuhiwai Smith, 2021). Climate change is now \r\ncreating additional challenges for Indigenous Peoples. For example, increased water scarcity due to higher temperatures and diminished \r\nprecipitation have led to reduced crop yields for Maya farmers in Yucatan (Sioui, 2019). Thawing permafrost in subarctic Canada (Quinton \r\net al., 2019) has interfered with the land-based livelihoods of the Indigenous Dene Peoples (CCP6)."


id: ecae8ccbad647f4b8c044728a7253a7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Evidence continues to mount about the impacts of recent climate change \r\non species and ecosystems (very high confidence) (Table 14.2; Weiskopf \r\net  al., 2020). Ranges and abundances of species continue to shift in \r\nresponse to warming throughout North America (very high confidence) \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; Cavanaugh et al., 2014; \r\nMolina-Martinez et al., 2016; Tape et al., 2016; Miller et al., 2017; Pecl \r\net al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2018a). Future climate change will continue \r\nto affect species and ecosystems (high confidence) (IPBES, 2018), with \r\ndifferential responses related to species characteristics and ecology \r\n(D'Orangeville et  al., 2016; Weiskopf et  al., 2019). Climate change is \r\nprojected to adversely affect the range, migration and habitat of caribou, \r\nan important food and cultural resource in the Arctic (CCP6; Leblond \r\net al., 2016; Masood et al., 2017; Barber et al., 2018b; Borish, 2022)."


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"Indigenous self-determination and self-governance are the foundations \r\nof adaptive strategies that improve understanding and research on \r\nclimate change, develop actionable community plans and policies \r\non climate change, and have demonstrable influence in improving \r\nthe design and allocation of national, regional and international \r\nprogrammes relating to climate change (very high confidence). Historical \r\nand contemporary developments have crystallised international norms \r\nrecognising the distinct status, role and rights of Indigenous Peoples in \r\nthe form of significant international human rights instruments. Premier \r\namong them is the UNDRIP (UNGA A/RES/61/295), which has received \r\nuniversal consensus since its adoption by the UN General Assembly. \r\nThe UN member States have affirmed the right of self-determination \r\n(Article 3, UNDRIP) regarded as the prerequisite to the exercise and \r\nenjoyment of all other human rights."


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"Climate-induced shifts in the timing of biological events (phenology) \r\ncontinue to be a well-documented ecological response (very high \r\nconfidence) (Table 14.2; Vose et al., 2017; Lipton et al., 2018; Vose et al., \r\n2018; Molnar et al., 2021). Reduced snow season length may potentially \r\nlead to adverse camouflage effects on animals that change coat colour \r\n(Mills et al., 2013; Mills et al., 2018). Human conflicts with bears are \r\nexpected to increase in response to shifts in hibernation patterns \r\n(Johnson et al., 2018) and food resources (Wilder et al., 2017; Wilson \r\net al., 2017)."


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"Severe ecosystem consequences of warming and drying are well \r\ndocumented (very high confidence) (Table 14.2). Significant ecosystem \r\nchanges are expected from projected climate change (high confidence), \r\nsuch as in Mexican cloud forests (Helmer et al., 2019), North American \r\nrangelands (Polley et al., 2013; Reeves et al., 2014) and montane forests \r\n(Stewart et al., 2021; Wright et al., 2021). Permafrost thaw is projected to \r\nincrease in Alaska and Canada (DeBeer et al., 2016; see also Ranasinghe "


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"Freshwater ecosystems across North America are increasingly at risk \r\nfrom extreme drought, compounded by human demands for water \r\n(Section  14.5.3; Kovach et  al., 2019). Implications for aquatic and \r\nriparian species can vary, but it is widely agreed that these systems \r\nare highly sensitive to fluctuations in the hydrological cycle, which can \r\nincrease competition by invasive species and compromise connectivity \r\nbetween potential cold-water refugia (Melis et al., 2016; Poff, 2019)."


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"et al., 2021), accelerating carbon release (CCP6, see also Canadell et al., \r\n2021) and affecting hydrology. Predicting which species or ecosystems \r\nare vulnerable is challenging (Stephenson et al., 2019), although palaeo\u0002ecological data (e.g., pollen, tree rings) provide context from past events \r\nto better understand current and future transformations (Nolan et al., \r\n2018)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:17
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"Climate change, either directly (warming water) or indirectly (glacier \r\nand snow inputs), has affected biogeochemical cycling and species \r\ncomposition in North American aquatic ecosystems (very high \r\nconfidence) (Table 14.2; Moser et al., 2005; Saros et al., 2010; Preston \r\net al., 2016), possibly amplifying other human-caused stresses on these \r\nsystems (Richter et  al., 2016). Excess nutrients associated with high \r\nfarm animal density can be transported during intense rainfall events \r\n(expected to increase with climate change) causing algal blooms, fish \r\nkills and other detrimental ecological effects (Huisman et  al., 2017; \r\nCoffey et al., 2019)."


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"Innovative approaches may facilitate species' responses to climate \r\nchange, particularly when vulnerability is exacerbated by habitat loss \r\nand fragmentation. Strategies include improved landscape connectivity \r\nfor species dispersal (Carroll et al., 2018; Littlefield et al., 2019; Lawler \r\net al., 2020; Thomas, 2020) or assisted migration (also called managed \r\nrelocation) to climatically suitable locations (Schwartz et  al., 2012; \r\nDobrowski et al., 2015). Examples include translocation of salmon in \r\nthe Columbia River (Holsman et al., 2012), genetic rescue (i.e., assisted \r\ngene flow increases genetic diversity to address local maladaptation) \r\n(Aitken and Whitlock, 2013) and locating and conserving climate \r\nrefugia, such as in alpine meadows of the Sierra Nevada (Javeline et al., "


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"Table 14.2 |  Examples of observed climate-change impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems"


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"2015; Morelli et al., 2016). Maintaining diverse spawning habitats and \r\nsalmon runs can increase resilience of salmonid populations to climate \r\nchange (Schoen et  al., 2017; Crozier et  al., 2021). Newer modelling \r\napproaches can facilitate the visualisation of future management \r\nscenarios, per a recent study of fires in the southwest USA (Loehman \r\net al., 2018), in addition to technologies in genomics for monitoring \r\nspecies and modifying adaptive traits (Phelps, 2019)."


id: b71f2ad3def0e4883b2113fed4d38f6c
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"Adaptation actions have important limitations (Dow et  al., 2013), \r\nparticularly in the context of biodiversity conservation goals. 'Hard' limits \r\ninclude species extinctions and vegetation mortality events, despite \r\nconservation action (i.e., besides significant emissions reductions to \r\nmitigate warming, few if any interventions could have prevented these \r\nlosses). In contrast, 'soft' adaptation limits exist primarily as a function \r\nof the social-ecological value systems of local communities and \r\ngovernment entities that are reflected as goals and objectives in their \r\nmanagement plans for ecosystems and species across North America. \r\nSoft limits are often mutable or can be removed altogether (Dow et al., \r\n2013). In contrast, human modifications of landscapes that change or \r\nirreparably damage can limit adaptation by reducing connectivity and \r\ntherefore range shifts (Parks and Abatzoglou, 2020)."


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"Warming of surface and subsurface ocean waters has been broadly \r\nobserved across all North American marine ecosystems from the polar \r\nArctic to the subtropics of Mexico (virtually certain) (Hobday et  al., \r\n2016; Jewett and Romanou, 2017; Pershing et al., 2018; Smale et al., "


id: c4b940b209748c06b6ad6ad86eafce7d
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"Warming has led to longer fire seasons (Westerling, 2016) and drier fuels (Williams et al., 2019a). Warmer and drier fire seasons in the \r\nwestern USA during 1985-2017 have contributed to greater burned area of severe fires (Parks and Abatzoglou, 2020). Simultaneity in \r\nfires increased during 1984-2015 (Podschwit and Cullen, 2020), challenging firefighting effectiveness and resource sharing. In Mexico, \r\nfires have been correlated with dry conditions (Kent et al., 2017; Marin et al., 2018; Zuniga-Vasquez et al., 2019). Wildland fire activity \r\nin the grasslands of the US Great Plains has increased during the past several decades (Donovan et al., 2017) related to antecedent \r\nprecipitation or aridity that affected fuel quantity (Littell et al., 2009)."


id: e80a50ff629a8780ea00d80ff6dec119
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"Climate change is projected to increase fire activity in many places in North America during the coming decades (see also AR6, WGI, \r\nChapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., 2021) (Boulanger et al., 2014; Williams et al., 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020), via longer fire seasons (Wotton \r\nand Flannigan, 1993; USGCRP, 2017), long-term warming (Villarreal et al., 2019; Wahl et al., 2019) and increased lightning frequency in \r\nsome areas of the USA and Canada (medium confidence) (Romps et al., 2014; Finney et al., 2018; Chen et al., 2021). Unusually extensive \r\nand severe fires have occurred in the Arctic tundra during recent extremely warm and dry years, suggesting that continued warming may \r\nincrease the probability of such fires in the future (Hu et al., 2015). In drier non-forest ecosystems in the western USA, fires are limited \r\nby fuel availability and vegetation productivity; warming will decrease productivity, leading to lower burned area (Littell et al., 2018)."


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"Although fire is a natural process in many North American ecosystems, increases in burned area and severity of wildland fires have had \r\nsignificant impacts on natural ecosystems (medium confidence). The length of streams and rivers impacted by fire has increased in the \r\nUSA along with burned area (Ball et al. 2021). Mega-fires can cause major changes in the structure and composition of ecosystems, \r\nparticularly where human alterations are significant (Stephens et al., 2014; Loehman et al., 2020). Unusually severe fires may have led to \r\nthe conversion of forest to grassland in the southwest USA (Haffey et al., 2018). Recent warming and drying have limited post-fire tree \r\nseedling and shrub establishment, limiting ecosystem recovery (Davis et al., 2019; O'Connor et al., 2020; Rodman et al., 2020). In boreal \r\nforests, soil carbon is being lost through increasingly severe or frequent fires (Walker et al., 2019)."


id: e15f4022c5ca9c513166f6939a291ca4
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"Projected future fire activity will continue to affect ecosystems and alter their structure and function (medium confidence) (Coop et al., \r\n2020; Loehman et al., 2020). Increased fire activity (Stevens-Rumann et al., 2018; Stevens-Rumann and Morgan, 2019; Turner et al., \r\n2019a; Cadieux et al., 2020), further warming and drying that stresses tree seedlings, and model projections of stand-replacing fires \r\nat the forest-non-forest boundary in the western USA (Parks et al., 2019) have raised the possibility of shifts in species composition \r\nor vegetation type (Halofsky et al., 2020). These projections suggest high variability in ecosystem responses depending on interactions \r\nbetween vegetation type, moisture stress, disturbances regimes and human alterations (Hurteau et al., 2008; Kitzberger et al., 2017; Littell \r\net al., 2018; Hurteau et al., 2019; Loehman et al., 2020; O'Connor et al., 2020)."


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"Increased fire activity, partly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, has had direct and indirect effects on mortality and morbidity, \r\neconomic losses and costs, key infrastructure, cultural resources and water resources (medium confidence), although other factors, such \r\nas increasing populations in the wildland-urban interface, have also contributed. During 2000-2018, significant fire events claimed \r\n315 lives in the USA (NOAA, 2019); the economic impacts (e.g., capital, health, indirect losses from economic disruption) from the 2018 "


id: fc0854d30e7f0d032f1f4caec7de742b
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"In the USA, annual costs of federal wildland fire suppression have increased by a factor of 4 since 1985 (USGCRP, 2018) and were \r\n1.5-3 billion USD during 2016-2020 (NIFC, 2021). Annual costs of fire protection in Canada have risen two- to threefold from 1970 \r\nto 2017, to $1.0-1.4 billion CAD during 2015-2017 (considering the 2017 CAD value) (Natural Resources Canada, 2021). In one of its \r\nworst fire seasons, British Columbia expended over 500 million CAD in 2017 for fire suppression (Natural Resources Canada, 2018). The \r\nnumber of days of synchronous fire danger is expected to double in the western USA by 2051-2080, thereby increasing demands on fire \r\nsuppression resources (Abatzoglou et al., 2021)."


id: d3c3dcf0afeb2d55692e9a207d4a3112
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"The 2016 Fort McMurray fire ranks as the costliest natural disaster in Canada to date (3 billion CAD in insured damages) (Mamuji and \r\nRozdilsky, 2018; IBC, 2020). More than 88,000 people were evacuated; many were not aware of the high pre-existing fire risk and had \r\nlimited warning to prepare and leave (McGee, 2019). The community subsequently required extensive social support and experienced \r\nmental health challenges (Government of Alberta, 2016; Cherry and Haynes, 2017; Mamuji and Rozdilsky, 2018; Brown et al., 2019a; \r\nMcGee, 2019). Although a broad recovery plan was developed (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, 2016), reconstruction and \r\neconomic recovery has been slow (Mamuji and Rozdilsky, 2018)."


id: 6edd1df73c71f6dad206434b3ebe343d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Wildland fire was identified as a top climate-change risk facing Canada (Council of Canadian Academies, 2019) and poses a challenge to \r\ncommunities and fire management (Coogan et al., 2019). Projected area burned in Canada using RCP2.6 will increase annual fire suppression \r\ncosts to 1 billion CAD the by end of century (60% increase relative to 1980-2009) and to 1.4 billion CAD using RCP8.5 (119% increase) (Hope \r\net al., 2016). In the USA, cumulative costs of fire response through 2100 are projected to be 23 billion USD (considering the 2015 USD value) \r\nyr-1 under RCP8.5 (EPA, 2017). Lower-emissions scenarios reduce these future cumulative costs by 55 million USD (EPA, 2017) to 7-9 billion \r\nUSD (considering the 2005 USD value) (Mills et al., 2015a). Fire increases from future warming will reduce timber supply in eastern Canada \r\n(Gauthier et al., 2015; Chaste et al., 2019) and increase post-fire sedimentation in watersheds of the western USA (Sankey et al., 2017)."


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"Wildland fire risks are not equitably distributed as they intersect with exposure and socioeconomic attributes (e.g., age, income, ethnicity) \r\nto influence vulnerability and adaptive capacity (medium confidence) (Wigtil et al., 2016; Davies et al., 2018; Palaiologou et al., 2019). \r\nIndividuals in rural areas, low-income neighbourhoods and immigrant communities, as well as renters in California, had less capacity to \r\nprepare for and recover from fire (Davies et al., 2018). In the USA, 29 million people live in areas with significant potential for wildfires \r\nand 12 million are socially vulnerable (Davies et al., 2018). In Canada, there are 117 million ha (14% of total land area) of wildland-\r\nhuman interface, and 96% of populated places have some wildland-urban interface within 5 km (Johnston and Flannigan, 2018)."


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"There is growing recognition of the need to shift fire management and suppression activities to co-exist with more fire on the landscape. \r\nThis includes widespread use of prescribed fire across landscapes to increase ecological and community-based resilience (high agreement, \r\nmedium evidence) (Schoennagel et al., 2017; McWethy et al., 2019; Tymstra et al., 2020). Otherwise, the unprecedented combination of \r\nincreased human exposure and size of recent mega-fires creates community risks that may exceed conventional operational and forest \r\nmanagement response capacity and budgets (Podur and Wotton, 2010; Wotton et al., 2017; Loehman et al., 2020; Moreira et al., 2020; \r\nParisien et al., 2020) particularly with ongoing population and infrastructure expansion into the wildland-urban interface (Canadian \r\nCouncil of Forest Ministers, 2016; Coogan et al., 2019)."


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"Climate-informed post-fire ecosystem recovery measures (e.g., strategic seeding, planting, natural regeneration), restoration of habitat \r\nconnectivity and managing for carbon sequestration (e.g., soil conservation through erosion control, preservation of old growth forests, \r\nsustainable agroforestry) are critical to maximise long-term adaptation potential and reduces future risk through co-benefits with carbon \r\nmitigation (Davis et al., 2019; Hurteau et al., 2019; Coop et al., 2020; Stewart et al., 2021). Innovation in and scaling up the use of \r\nprescribed fire and thinning approaches are contributing to pre- and post-fire resilience goals, including use of Indigenous Peoples \r\nburning practices that are receiving a new level of awareness (see Box 14.1; Kolden, 2019; Marks-Block et al., 2019; Long et al., 2020b)."


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"The tools FireSmart Canada1, Firewise USA2 and Think-Hazard Mexico3 were devised to reduce fire risks and create fire-resilient communities. \r\nThey provide design guidance at building, lot, subdivision and community scales, and instruct citizens on creating defensible space \r\n(National Fire Protection Association, 2013; Firesmart Canada, 2018). Implementation has been fragmented and variable as it depends \r\non voluntary uptake by individuals, businesses and communities across a range of adaptive capacities and fire-exposed landscapes (Smith \r\net al., 2016a). Many vulnerable groups do not have access to financial or physical resources to reduce fire risk (Collins and Bolin, 2009; \r\nPalaiologou et al., 2019)."


id: 38e9fe740983b32ba54e9eff6b510c50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Although innovative, holistic approaches to wildland fire management are becoming more common across North America, broader \r\napplication is necessary to address the growing risks (medium confidence). A social-ecological perspective blends ecosystem complexity, \r\nscale and processes into land-use planning along with community values, perception and capacities as well as institutional arrangements \r\n(Smith et al., 2016a; Spies et al., 2018). A risk assessment perspective expands from short-term, reactive fire response to landscape-scale, \r\nlong-term prevention, mitigation, and preparedness with community and practitioner engagement (Coogan et al., 2019; Sherry et al., \r\n2019; Johnston et al., 2020; Tymstra et al., 2020)."


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"opportunities (Section 14.5.7; Weijerman et al., 2015a; Weijerman et al., \r\n2015b). Without mitigation to keep surface temperatures below a 2degC \r\nincrease by the end of the century, up to 99% of coral reefs will be lost; \r\nhowever, 95% of reefs will still be lost even if warming is kept below \r\n1.5degC (high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al., 2018). In Florida, by 2100, an estimated 24-55 billion USD may \r\nbe lost in recreational use and value derived by people knowing the reef \r\nexists and is healthy (Lane et al., 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019b) as \r\ncoral reefs decline (Section 14.5.9)."


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"temperatures (Meyer-Gutbrod et al., 2018; Davies and Brillant, 2019). \r\nSimilarly, whale entanglements in fishing gear along the Pacific coast \r\nhas increased twentyfold (Hazen et al., 2018). Projected shifts in the \r\nNorth Pacific Transition Zone by up to 1000 km northward (by the \r\nend of the century under RCP8.5) combined with changes in coastal \r\nupwelling (Polovina et al., 2011; Hazen et al., 2013; Rykaczewski et al., \r\n2015) could alter up to 35% of elephant seal and bluefin tuna foraging \r\nhabitat (Robinson et al., 2009; Kappes et al., 2010)."


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"Future seawater CO2 levels have been shown in laboratory studies \r\nto negatively impact Pacific and Atlantic squid, bivalve, crab and fish \r\nspecies (Pacific cod), and indirectly alter food-web dynamics (high \r\nconfidence) (Kaplan et al., 2013; Long et al., 2013b; Gledhill et al., 2015; \r\nSeung et al., 2015; Punt et al., 2016; Swiney et al., 2017; Hurst et al., \r\n2019; Wilson et  al., 2020). Long-term exposure to CO2 has reduced \r\ngrowth of Atlantic halibut (Grans et al., 2014), whereas some cultured \r\noysters (Fitzer et al., 2019) and key Alaskan commercial fish species "


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"Coral reefs in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coasts of Florida and the \r\nYucatan Peninsula are facing increasing risk of bleaching and mortality \r\nfrom warming ocean waters interacting with non-climate stressors \r\n(very high confidence) (Cinner et al., 2016; Hughes et al., 2018; Sully \r\net  al., 2019; Williams et  al., 2019b). Coral reefs are contracting in \r\nequatorial regions and expanding poleward (Lluch-Cota et  al., 2010; \r\nJones et al., 2019a). Loss of coral habitat leads to loss of ecosystem \r\nstructure, fish habitat, food for coastal communities and impacts tourism "


id: b0065fe9f2631fc8ba4e295e0d778cfa
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"stratification, CO2 concentration and nutrient inputs (high confidence) \r\n(Wells et  al., 2015; Gobler et  al., 2017; Griffith and Gobler, 2019). \r\nIncreased occurrence of HABs (McCabe et al., 2016; Yang et al., 2016; \r\nGobler et  al., 2017; USGCRP, 2018) has induced ecological impacts \r\nand societal costs (see Section 14.5.4 for fishery closures). During the \r\n2013-2016 Pacific MHW (see Box  14.3), a Pseudo-nitzschia diatom \r\nbloom off the west coast of the USA caused extensive closures of \r\ncrab and razor clam fisheries (Fisher et al. 2021), with economic and \r\nsociocultural impacts beyond those in the fisheries sector (Ritzman \r\net al., 2018)."


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"show tolerance for high CO2 waters (i.e., juvenile walleye pollock) \r\n(Hurst et al., 2012). Ocean acidification has already caused shellfish \r\ngrowers in the USA and Canada to modify hatchery procedures and \r\nfarming locations to protect the most vulnerable life stages (Cross \r\net al., 2016) and is projected to increasingly impact shellfish resources \r\nin the central and northeast Pacific and Atlantic coasts (Section 14.5.4; \r\nSeung et al., 2015; Punt et al., 2016)."


id: 8bcade12c9f5c9c5919950befc7996b1
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content:
"Beaching of massive Sargassum seaweed mats (Sargassum natans\r\nand S. fluitans) have been reported across the Caribbean and Gulf of \r\nMexico from 2011 to the present, affecting US and Mexico nearshore \r\necosystems, human health and the tourism industry (Franks et  al., \r\n2016; Resiere et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2019). Costs of beach clean-up \r\nis high, with Texas spending over 2.9 million USD annually (Webster \r\nand Linton, 2013). Attribution of Sargassum blooms to climate \r\nchange is still tenuous and complicated by multiple drivers and few \r\nobservational data sources (low confidence) (Wang et al., 2019)."


id: 74e29e65dbcd628c404036f51f05f792
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 15983
content:
"Emerging technologies and cooperative marine management are \r\napproaches to facilitate adaptation but require coordination and \r\ninvestment for implementation (high confidence) (Gattuso et  al., \r\n2018; Miller et  al., 2018; Holsman et  al., 2019; Karp et  al., 2019). \r\nAdvancements in oceanographic and ecological nowcasting and \r\nforecasting tools (i.e., O2, pH, temperature, aragonite saturation state, "


id: d6823030c270ceb4690c61403de564c7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 31262
content:
"Favourable conditions for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have expanded \r\ndue to warming, more frequent extreme weather events (Gobler \r\net al., 2017; Pershing et al., 2018; Trainer et al., 2019) and increased "


id: a8891e6d13a6ef90a32c13159374c1b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 24045
content:
"environmental impacts must be considered. Options for protecting \r\nand restoring coral reefs to prevent loss of ecosystem function are \r\nunder development with Florida reef species (Gattuso et al., 2018; \r\nNational Academies of Sciences, 2019). An emerging approach for \r\nfinancing the protection of reefs involves re-categorising reefs as \r\n'natural infrastructure' which has allowed for use of insurance to \r\nrebuild lost reefs (Storlazzi et al., 2019)."


id: 7ddcdd78eb5df042649ca99d1a7c753
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 17373
content:
"sea ice conditions) can reduce climate impacts by supporting fisheries \r\nand aquaculture adaptation along US coasts (Section 14.5.4; Cooley \r\net  al., 2015; Irby et  al., 2015; Siedlecki et  al., 2015; Siedlecki et  al., \r\n2016; Siddon and Zador, 2017). Forecasts and warnings reduce human \r\nexposure to HAB toxins in the Great Lakes, the west coast of Florida, \r\neast coast of Texas and the Gulf of Maine (Anderson et al., 2019)."


id: d056c02d5bdf5ff86d7f92f7da7885ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30309
content:
"Climate change poses increasing threats to North American aquatic \r\necology, water quality, water availability for human uses, and flood \r\nexposure, through reductions in snow and ice, increases in extreme \r\nprecipitation and hotter droughts. Adaptation will be impeded in cases \r\nwhere there are conflicts over competing interests or unintended \r\nconsequences of uncoordinated efforts, heightening the importance of \r\ncooperative, scenario-based water resource planning and governance \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 27b3a601f10012128efd72e40be306c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"North American water resources continue to be affected by ongoing \r\nwarming, with impacts driven by reductions in snow and ice, increases \r\nin extreme precipitation and hotter droughts (high confidence) \r\n(Section 14.2; Fleming and Dahlke, 2014; Mortsch et al., 2015; Dudley \r\net  al., 2017; Fyfe et  al., 2017; McCabe et  al., 2017; Chavarria and \r\nGutzler, 2018; Lall et al., 2018; Bonsal et al., 2019; USGCRP, 2019). The \r\ncascading effects of severe droughts, floods, sediment mobilisation, \r\nHABs and pathogen contamination episodes have revealed the \r\nvulnerability and exposure of large numbers of people and economic \r\nactivities to those hazards."


id: 7f8038d79236e14d1c3f3966fdc634d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Improved coordination and planning at multiple scales will be important \r\nfor marine species conservation and recovery as species redistribute \r\nacross fishery areas, marine protected zones, and international and \r\njurisdictional boundaries (Section 14.5.4; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING \r\nPLATE in Chapter 5; Pinsky et al., 2018; Karp et al., 2019). Indigenous \r\nPeoples' co-management with federal and state partners of \r\nmarine resources and protected species is an important approach \r\n(Section 14.5.4; Chapters 5 and 6; CCP6; Galappaththi et al., 2019)."


id: 76aa4be98a687812f4dd4d725cd8f901
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"In South Carolina, 5 days of heavy rainfall in October 2015 caused the \r\nfailure of more than 50 dams and some levees, significantly magnifying \r\ndestruction from the floodwaters (FEMA, 2016). Slow-moving, \r\ndestructive storms like hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) \r\nhave caused significant flooding (van Oldenborgh et al., 2017; Paul et al., \r\n2019b). In those cases, urban sprawl may have altered storm dynamics \r\n(Zhang et al., 2018b), while increased asset exposure to the flood hazard "


id: e89c488fe769cbb218995727a0ebe8cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"amplified the multi-billion-dollar losses (Klotzbach et al., 2018; Trenberth \r\net  al., 2018). A substantial fraction of the damage from hurricane \r\nHarvey's extreme rainfall has been attributed to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange (see Box 14.5; Emanuel, 2017; Risser and Wehner, 2017). A near \r\ndisaster at California's Oroville dam in 2017 was caused by inadequate \r\ninfrastructure design and maintenance together with an unusually large \r\nnumber of atmospheric river (AR) storms. The event required emergency \r\nreservoir spills while the state was beginning recovery from the extreme \r\n2012-2016 drought (Vano et al., 2019; White et al., 2019)."


id: 9ffe0d93f0033ffd917363f1c4a1b3e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 22712
content:
"Climate change is projected to amplify current trends in water resource \r\nimpacts, potentially reducing water supply security, impairing water \r\nquality and increasing flood hazards to varying degrees across North \r\nAmerica (high confidence). Examples are presented in Table 14.3."


id: 367360363289051713228c03a75542fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Projected long-term reduction in water availability in the southwest \r\nUS and northern Mexico (e.g., from the Colorado and Rio Grande \r\nrivers) will have substantial ecological and economic impacts given \r\nthe region's heavy water demands (high confidence) (Lall et al., 2018; \r\nParedes-Tavares et al., 2018; Martinez-Austria et al., 2019; Milly and \r\nDunne, 2020; Williams et  al., 2020). Increased water scarcity will \r\nintensify the need to address competing interests across state and \r\nnational boundaries, including honouring commitments to Indigenous \r\nPeoples who have long struggled with inadequate access to their water \r\nentitlements and marginalisation in water resource planning (Mumme, \r\n1999; Cozzetto et al., 2013b; Mumme, 2016; McNeeley, 2017; Radonic, \r\n2017; Robison et al., 2018; Curley, 2019; Water and Tribes Initiative, \r\n2020; Wilder et al., 2020)."


id: 26d42ce2d0b2220b9a25ef18ae9c121e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"In Mexico, some poor neighbourhoods and informal settlements are \r\nlocated in areas exposed to recurrent flooding. Residents often lack \r\naccess to public services and technical resources for risk reduction, \r\nwhich heightens their vulnerability (Castro and De Robles, 2019)."


id: ae181d9506ea651a9c3ad9b15a501184
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Population growth and urban development have increased the \r\nexposure and vulnerability of Canadian communities to flood damages, \r\nwith cumulative damages (including uninsured losses) exceeding \r\n10  billion USD in the past decade (The Geneva Association et  al., \r\n2020). Recurring floods are particularly costly (e.g., New Brunswick) \r\n(Beltaos and Burrell, 2015; Kovachis et al., 2017). Floods in High River, \r\nAB (2013) and Gatineau, QC (2017, 2019) initiated considerations of \r\nbuilding flood resilience including planned retreat (Saunders-Hastings \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 4d2060428a25e57650edfc0268122584
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Increased scarcity of renewable water relative to legally allocated \r\nor desired uses may develop in many parts of North America. A \r\ndetailed analysis of projected water demands (consumptive uses) and \r\navailability found increasingly frequent shortages in several watersheds \r\nacross the USA (Brown et al., 2019b). This might lead to maladaptive \r\nincreased groundwater mining, or alternatively to policies promoting \r\nsustainable balancing of water consumption with renewable supplies, \r\nfor example, by facilitating voluntary water transfers or improving \r\nenforcement of groundwater rights (Colorado River Basin Stakeholders, \r\n2015; California Natural Resources Agency et al., 2020; Colorado Water \r\nConservation Board, 2020; Pauloo et al., 2020)."


id: eb6c42b5774f6c3b04cfe249e34a2975
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Extended and severe droughts in the western USA, northern Mexico \r\nand Canadian Prairies, exacerbated by higher temperatures, have \r\ncaused economic and environmental damage (Williams et al., 2013; \r\nAgha Kouchak et  al., 2015; Diaz et  al., 2016; Bain and Acker, 2018; \r\nLopez-Perez et  al., 2018; Ortega-Gaucin et  al., 2018; Xiao et  al., \r\n2018; Martinez-Austria et al., 2019; Bonsal et al., 2020; Martin et al., \r\n2020b; Milly and Dunne, 2020; Overpeck and Udall, 2020). Droughts \r\nhave intensified tensions among competing water-use interests and \r\naccelerated depletion of groundwater resources (high confidence) \r\n(Section 14.5.4; Pauloo et al., 2020)."


id: b62f9108fec9c114b738bb96122b5698
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Climate change is projected to reduce groundwater recharge in \r\nmajor southwest US aquifers (e.g., Southern High Plains, San Pedro \r\nand Wasatch Front), exacerbating their ongoing depletion due to \r\nunsustainable pumping. Other aquifers, especially those farther north, \r\nface uncertain or possibly increasing recharge (medium confidence) \r\n(Meixner et al., 2016)."


id: a7b67ea54068103c5f182173d3c994e7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Projected changes in temperature and precipitation present direct risks \r\nto North American water quality, varying with regional and watershed \r\ncontexts (Chapra et al., 2017; Coffey et al., 2019; Paul et al., 2019a), \r\nand related to streamflow, population growth (Duran-Encalada et al., \r\n2017) and land-use practices (medium confidence) (Mehdi et al., 2015). \r\nHarmful algal blooms increase in frequency across the USA (Wells \r\net al., 2015) with the highest risk projected for the Great Plains and \r\nNortheast USA, and greatest economic impacts from lost recreation \r\nvalue in the southeast USA (Chapra et al., 2017)."


id: 17189cf9c4619c1f651aa7da7ffd23ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1152
content:
"The diversity of climate regimes across North America results in regional \r\ndifferences in water-related climate-change risks (Figure 14.4)."


id: 69f1a84541ba203ef521a41cc5146e53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14267
content:
"North American water planners and policy makers have abandoned \r\nstationarity assumptions (Milly et al., 2015) to address climate change. "


id: c28dd9a2ff7b1c2b659f82d10e2eaa50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Transboundary institutions, government agencies and professional or\u0002ganisations are taking the lead on adaptation planning and implemen\u0002tation (ASCE, 2018b; Clamen and Macfarlane, 2018; International Joint \r\nCommission, 2018). Major water agencies are using climate scenarios \r\nto identify vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation options (Yates et al., \r\n2015; Vogel et  al., 2016; California Department of Water Resources, \r\n2019; Ray et al., 2020; Bureau of Reclamation, 2021d)."


id: 4f11708bfeca1e0580d5b63c32b0a4ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"of wildfires on water supply resiliency are being considered (Martin, \r\n2016). Many North American Indigenous Peoples are engaged in \r\nclimate-change adaptation planning, although these efforts may be \r\nhampered by the complicated legal and administrative setting in which \r\nthey must operate (Norton-Smith et al., 2016a; McNeeley, 2017)."


id: 78220a1604820cb06c75efa854cbae9b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 16466
content:
"Recent climate extremes have heightened governmental attention \r\nto climate-change impacts (e.g., California Natural Resources \r\nAgency et al., 2020). Droughts have exposed shortcomings in water \r\nmanagement and governance (Gray et al., 2015; Xiao et al., 2017b; \r\nLopez-Perez et  al., 2018) spurring legislation and administrative "


id: a383a7c8e2de317d262b7d30f94d03d3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 23290
content:
"The Water Utility Climate Alliance advises municipal water providers \r\nto address uncertainty by considering a wide range of plausible \r\nfuture climate conditions (WUCA, 2010). In some areas, the impacts "


id: 4fb3b5897d5f333c0f4190addf8a092b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"defined terms can lead to tensions and disputes, especially in areas \r\nfacing increased aridity, creating difficulties for adaptation. For example, \r\nunregulated pumping of groundwater for irrigation during short-term \r\ndroughts can serve as an adaptation to acute conditions (Section 14.5.4), \r\nbut if persisting in the long term, it can deplete finite groundwater \r\nresources and de-water hydrologically connected rivers. Such outcomes \r\nhave engendered bitter and costly interstate conflicts in the USA, some \r\neven reaching the US Supreme Court including Texas v. New Mexico (Rio \r\nGrande) and Florida v. Georgia (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint)."


id: e5fff47f3c071347e293401004398c76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Transboundary rivers that exemplify the need to address climate impacts \r\ninclude the Colorado (Gerlak et al., 2013), Columbia (Cosens et al., 2016) \r\nand Rio Grande/Rio Bravo (Mumme, 1999; Mumme, 2016; Garrick et al., \r\n2018; Payne, 2020). Drought emergencies can open opportunities for \r\nprogress on collaborative adaptive governance, but such windows may \r\nquickly close when wetter conditions return (Sullivan, (2019)."


id: 41121a2fe59dbeab08dc89da9c7fcbcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 7629
content:
"Examples of adaptation include increasing adoption of water-saving \r\nirrigation methods in California (Cooley, 2016), experimentation with \r\nusing flood waters to enhance groundwater recharge (Kocis and Dahlke, \r\n2017; California Department of Water Resources, 2018) and agricultural \r\nland management programmes, including developing riparian buffers to \r\nprotect water quality (Section 14.5.4; Mehdi et al., 2015; Schoeneberger \r\net al., 2017). Indigenous Peoples are building upon traditional practices \r\nto adapt to the effects of climate change, for example, by working \r\njointly to recharge local aquifers (Basel et al., 2020)."


id: d04f1d741ab8860cca54364d72382ca8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 30304
content:
"Water-right laws, interstate compacts and international treaties \r\nregarding transboundary water shape the context for climate-change \r\nadaptation, but the possibility of long-term climate change typically \r\nwas not contemplated at their inception. Gaps in coverage and vaguely "


id: c2336c8830d23a652677cbd6ceadf398
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 28136
content:
"to climate change (Lant et al., 2016; Cho and McCarl, 2017). Irrigation \r\nis expanding to areas formerly largely dependent on rainfall (Wang \r\net al., 2018b)."


id: 64eb1a239d246f6bfd3a25c9d257373b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"and ecosystem-based, water management solutions (Colorado River \r\nBasin Stakeholders, 2015). California's approach to groundwater \r\nsustainability regulation intends to foster such collaborative problem\u0002solving by giving local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies the \r\nauthority to design locally appropriate plans to meet state-defined \r\nsustainability goals (State of California, 2014; Miller, 2017). As \r\nevidenced by the US interstate disputes, the greatest difficulties arise \r\nin cases where stark upstream-downstream differences in interests \r\nleave little room for mutual benefit. Severe aridification may test the \r\nlimits of adaptive capacity."


id: c58f3f533cc4858b11206c37a48cc8d7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"have reduced yield and increased instability in fishery revenue (high \r\nconfidence) (Fisher et al., 2021)."


id: ebf7d53feb86fb9a8dd6fadc48b8085f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"D'Orangeville et  al., 2018; Thorne et  al., 2018; Chaste et  al., 2019) \r\ndepending on location and the mechanisms included. Wildfires and \r\ninsect outbreaks are projected to increase with future climate change, \r\nthereby limiting biomass (Gauthier et  al., 2015; Bentz et  al., 2019; \r\nChaste et al., 2019)."


id: 636967f13374aa9976886be48e2b183e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Warming waters and OA have impacted aquaculture production in North \r\nAmerica (high confidence) (Figure  14.6; Clements and Chopin, 2017; \r\nReid et al., 2019; Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020). Under climate change "


id: e040e40c5958bddbf1f5b689193a17a4
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"Figure 14.5 |  Crop responses to climate change will depend on existing mean climate, type of climate change and characteristics of crop types. Hypothesised \r\nresponses for Crop Types A, B, C and D include changing crop yields or changing crop area. Adaptation actions may alter hypothesised responses. (Maps from Matthews et al., 2019.)"


id: bd07fe8f9aaf4fec2283b27842e67e39
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 27300
content:
"Froehlich et al 2018 (RCP 8.5 2100 \r\nensemble model) negative\r\nBivalves high probability of declines\r\ndue to changes in temp. CHLa, & OA."


id: 8bbc7c43bbd852cfaecb401c7c793cdf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"(RCP8.5), declines in marine finfish and bivalve aquaculture become \r\nlikely by mid-century (Froehlich et al., 2018; Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020). \r\nAdaptation is possible but uncertain (Bitter et al., 2019; Fitzer et al., 2019; \r\nReid et  al., 2019), especially with increasing extreme events. Nature\u0002based aquaculture solutions (e.g., conservation aquaculture, restorative \r\naquaculture) could aid carbon mitigation and local-level adaptation, \r\nespecially for seaweed and bivalve culture (see Box 14.7; Froehlich et al., \r\n2017; Froehlich et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2019; Theuerkauf et al., 2019)."


id: 44a0898de0a6556613a23a64f006edda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8223
content:
"the sector, successful adaptation is underpinned by approaches that \r\nmeaningfully consider the coupled social-ecological networks around \r\nfood and fibre production and value IK (very high confidence) (see \r\nBox 14.1; FAO, 2018; Steele et al., 2018; Calliari et al., 2019). Integrated \r\nmodelling, participatory planning and inclusive decision making \r\npromote effective and equitable adaptation responses (very high \r\nconfidence) (Figure 14.7, Section 14.7) Toledo-Hernandez et al., 2017; \r\nEakin et al., 2018; Monterroso and Conde, 2018; Alexander et al., 2019; \r\nHodgson and Halpern, 2019; Holsman et  al., 2019; Samhouri et  al., \r\n2019; Barbeaux et al., 2020; Hollowed et al., 2020), while a paucity \r\nof high-resolution and locally tailored climate change information \r\nremains a barrier to adaptation (Ekstrom et al., 2015; Donatti et al., \r\n2017; Young et al., 2019)."


id: 11cc948bc99f3dadc66cc56a12900e09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Across food and fibre systems, climate resilience is enhanced through \r\ndiversifying income and harvest portfolios as well as increasing local \r\nbiodiversity and functional redundancy (high confidence) (Messier \r\net  al., 2019; Rogers et  al., 2019; Young et  al., 2019; Aquilue et  al., \r\n2020; Fisher et al., 2021). Ecosystem-based practices and sustainable \r\nintensification (increasing yields while minimising resource demand \r\nand ecosystem impacts) (Cassman and Grassini, 2020; Rockstrom \r\net al., 2021) will help the sector meet food production demands under \r\nclimate change (medium confidence), but effectiveness generally \r\ndeclines and is less certain after 2050 in scenarios without carbon \r\nmitigation (high confidence) (Bermeo et al., 2014; Gaines et al., 2018; \r\nCostello et al., 2020; Free et al., 2020; Holsman et al., 2020). Across "


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content:
"Land management and horticulture approaches that preserve and \r\nimprove soil structure and organic matter can reduce erosion (high \r\nconfidence) (Sections  14.5.1, 14.5.3; Lal et  al., 2011; Bisbis et  al., \r\n2018). Preserving biodiversity and water, changing planting dates and \r\ndouble cropping are also effective climate adaptation strategies (Bisbis \r\net  al., 2018; Hernandez-Ochoa et  al., 2018; Monterroso-Rivas et  al., "


id: a0327c24a0f9fa606869c2b78fba9d18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"rangeland resilience (Zhao et al., 2013). In loblolly pine plantations in \r\nthe southern USA, effective adaptation includes reducing tree density \r\nand, less effectively, shifting to slash pine (Susaeta et  al., 2014). \r\nSalvage logging following forest disturbances (e.g., insect outbreaks) \r\ncan increase timber harvest (Bogdanski et al., 2011; USDA Forst Service, \r\n2011; Han et al., 2018; Morris et al., 2018a)."


id: 9d8df6440985ba0e40b3fc1bbde3b3a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Proactive and ecosystem-based management increases climate \r\nresilience in fisheries (high confidence), but effectiveness after 2050 \r\nmay be limited without global carbon mitigation (medium confidence) \r\n(Gaichas et al., 2017; Gaines et al., 2018; Kritzer et al., 2019; Barbeaux \r\net al., 2020; Free et al., 2020; Holsman et al., 2020). Flexibility (e.g., \r\nmobility, diverse incomes or harvest portfolios) underpins climate \r\nresilience across regions, management policies and fisheries, although \r\nsmall-scale fisheries have less scope for adaptation (Aguilera et  al., \r\n2015; Young et al., 2019). Climate-informed and dynamic management "


id: 421a588d4fe9f66a1dbbfd67d2b9ec9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7799
content:
"Weatherdon et al. (2016); \r\nCheung (2018); Froehlich \r\net al. (2018); Morley et al. \r\n(2018); Greenan et al. \r\n(2018); Steiner et al. (2019); \r\nSumaila et al. (2019); \r\nBryndum-Buchholz et al. \r\n(2020); Holsman et al. \r\n(2020); Palacios-Abrantes \r\net al. (2020); Reum et al. \r\n(2020); Sumaila and Zwaag \r\n(2020); Whitehouse and \r\nAydin (2020); Wilson et al. \r\n(2020)"


id: ab80a019ca9abc9036ee546f360c1bd1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"significant risk to residents of small towns across North America due \r\nto limited resources to address heat impacts and attendant increased \r\nmorbidity and mortality (Section 14.5.6.1; McDonald et al., 2016; Guo \r\net al., 2018; D'ulisse, 2019)."


id: 1d54a46f2e7a48e71adaae427ef0c88f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
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content:
"Hot and dry conditions increase risk of wildfires close to human \r\nsettlements through collateral impacts on properties, economic \r\nactivity and human health (see Box  14.2; Section  14.5.6.3). These \r\nenvironmental conditions also stress natural assets (e.g., urban forests, \r\nwetlands, household gardens, green walls) and performance of green \r\ninfrastructure leading to higher operation and maintenance costs (high \r\nconfidence) (Kabisch et al., 2017; Terton, 2017)."


id: c522933ad9d296b761a0f97105931314
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Wind storms and hurricanes are significant climate hazards for North \r\nAmerican cities and settlements, affecting urban forests, electricity \r\ndistribution and service delivery, and damaging buildings and trans\u0002portation infrastructure (Amec Foster Wheeler Environment and Infra\u0002structure, 2017; British Columbia Hydro, 2019; Smith, 2020), with \r\nenduring impacts on small villages due to lost livelihoods and limited \r\nrecovery capacity (e.g., Rio Lagartos and Las Coloradas in MX-SE after \r\nHurricane Isidore) (Audefroy and Cabrera Sanchez, 2017). The Pacific \r\ncoast of Mexico is also experiencing hurricanes such as Patricia (cate\u0002gory IV) in 2015 and Newton (category I) in 2016 (CONAGUA, 2015; \r\nCONAGUA, 2016); hurricane Patricia affected 56 municipalities in the \r\nstates of Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco (MX-CE, MX-NW) (Calleja-Reina, \r\n2016)."


id: af7a142060b09fb54e8795759e6c4ee6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"between high-latitude and subtropical zones), extreme precipitation \r\nevents are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with \r\nimpacts on flood hazards (Section  14.5.3.2; Easterling et  al., 2017). \r\nWinter (snow and ice) storms are expected to increase in northern \r\nNorth America and decrease in southern North America under RCP8.5 \r\n(Jeong and Sushama, 2018b). Projected increases in wind-driven rain \r\nexposure is an emerging consideration for moisture-resilient design \r\nand management of buildings, especially in western and northern \r\nCanada (Jeong and Cannon, 2020)."


id: 7472be79bade255210795140dee20ec5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"sites (see Box 14.4; Dawson et al., 2020). Sea level rise is creating \r\nconditions where considerable financial investments are needed \r\nand, in many cases, are being raised to address adaptation needs \r\n(see Box 14.4; CCP6, Fatoric and Seekamp, 2017; Hinkel et al., 2018; \r\nGreenan et al., 2018). Across North America, high population density \r\nand concentrated development along the coast generates exposure \r\nto SLR impacts."


id: 5f3d148ba61c00848558ca6311063762
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Evidence since the AR5 highlights increased risk to quality of life in \r\ncities and rural communities as a result of exposure to intensifying \r\nclimate-change hazards, and the compounding and interacting effects \r\nof climate and non-climate factors (medium confidence)."


id: 703739deeccde7414608f8c87e37a3ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"In Canada, SLR is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude \r\nof extreme high-water-level events (Greenan et al., 2018) and to create \r\nwidespread impacts on natural and human systems (high confidence) \r\n(see Box  14.4; Lemmen et  al., 2016). Although coastal sensitivity is \r\nhigh in the Arctic, Canada's more populated regions are also sensitive \r\nto the impacts of SLR (Manson et al., 2019). The Mi'kmaq community \r\nof Lennox Island First Nation is exploring relocation options because of \r\nerosion from SLR (Savard et al., 2016)."


id: cffcb180229c98e0450ed6fb7d5080c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"In Mexico, crucial coastal tourism cities, such as Cancun, Isla Mujeres, \r\nPlaya del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel (MX-SE), are at risk \r\nof SLR with an estimated economic impact of 1.4-2.3  billion USD \r\n(Section  14.5.7; Ruiz-Ramirez et  al., 2019). Negative effects of the \r\n'coastal squeeze' phenomena (generated by SLR, land subsidence, \r\nsediment deficit and current urbanisation processes) have been \r\ndocumented on tourist destinations along the coasts of the Mexican \r\nGulf of Mexico and Mexican Caribbean. Zoning, limiting urbanisation \r\nalong the coastline and using NbS (see Box  14.7) are alternatives \r\nthat could be applied to improve the adaptation of these destinations \r\n(Martinez et  al., 2014; Salgado and Luisa Martinez, 2017; Lithgow \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 4a67b95047a4543f07bcc641fe4b18b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Warmer and/or drier conditions may reduce water supply reliability \r\nfor cities and small communities that rely on surface water sources \r\nfed by rain or snowmelt runoff, for example, Victoria and Vancouver, \r\nCanada (CA-BC) (Metro Vancouver, 2016; Vadeboncoeur, 2016; Islam \r\net  al., 2017); San Pedro, Hermosillo and Los Pargas, Aguascalientes, \r\nMexico (MX-NW, MX-CE) (Vadeboncoeur, 2016; Soto-Montes-de-Oca \r\nand Alfie-Cohen, 2019); New York City (US-NE) (NYC Department of \r\nEnvironmental Protection, 2014); and Washington State (US-NW) \r\n(Section 14.5.3.2; Fosu et al., 2017)."


id: e3b392e4ccaa444537641f7753809b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Rural low-lying coastal areas are at risk from SLR where natural \r\nbarriers or shoreline infrastructure are deteriorating and this interacts \r\nwith remoteness, resource-dependent economies and socioeconomic \r\nchallenges to adaptive capacity (Bhattachan et  al., 2018; Manson "


id: c0e4657c09c52ba05fbff5ac0aaa1df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Annual and winter precipitation is expected to increase for most of \r\nCanada (Section  14.2; Figure  14.2D,E) and will increase flooding in \r\ncities and settlements (high confidence) (Bonsal et al., 2019). Although \r\nthere is more geographic variation across the continental USA (e.g., "


id: b1967bd5030e7fb926dd40a8e91d6e17
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"plan for Montreal includes visits to vulnerable populations, cooling \r\nshelters, monitoring of heat-related illness and extended hours for \r\npublic pools (Lesnikowski et al., 2017); efforts have reduced heatwave\u0002related mortalities (Benmarhnia et al., 2016)."


id: 11face986bba27fa6dcfc18c2d2edd77
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"et al., 2019). The Northeast Atlantic region of North America (CA-AT, \r\nUS-NE) is exposed to high risk by combined effects of land subsidence \r\nand climate-driven SLR (see Box  14.4; Lemmen et  al., 2016; Sweet \r\net al., 2017; Fleming et al., 2018; Greenan et al., 2018)."


id: da682f98b7c6456580d0d69af4d3a524
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 31888
content:
"Meeting increasing demand for indoor space cooling with equitable \r\naccess requires new approaches to providing cooling (e.g., equipment \r\nefficiencies, refrigerants with lower global warming potential) and \r\nelectricity production and transmission innovation (Shah et al., 2015; \r\nIEA, 2018a). While energy efficiency and building code standards are \r\nnot directly established by local governments, they can encourage \r\nbehaviour change via incentives (e.g., rebates on efficient equipment) \r\nor disincentives (e.g., more onerous permit approvals)."


id: 5331d9ad4dabd7ebe470fb0c51b442fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Community-level planning tailors adaptation responses and disaster \r\npreparedness to the local context but misalignment of policies within \r\nand between levels of government can prevent implementation \r\n(Oulahen et al., 2018). Coordination, planning and national support \r\nare needed to provide sufficient financial resources to implement \r\nclimate-resilient policies and infrastructure (Section 14.7.3; USGCRP, \r\n2018)."


id: ec7690a4e96dd4c639c88e2624d2fb51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 34684
content:
"Public health measures to address extreme heat events are more \r\ncommon across North America, with a focus on vulnerable populations \r\n(e.g., City of Toronto, 2019) and innovative approaches for reaching \r\nat-risk populations with an overarching intent of prevention (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section  14.4.6.1; Guilbault et  al., 2016). The heatwave "


id: e80c04a1db0c060573dc5a73a29f2098
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Experience with droughts, heatwaves and other weather extremes \r\nhas led many municipal water managers to accept the importance \r\nof building resilience to the risks of future water shortages and costs \r\nposed by climate change (Metro Vancouver, 2016; Misra et al., 2021; "


id: c13e6249a31c62a88de665c9c7edb32e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Box 14.4 | Sea Level Rise Risks and Adaptation Responses for Selected North American Citie\r\nand Settlements"


id: c404db8397034613518692a47191e5ba
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"Figure Box 14.4.1 |  Sea level rise projections for 2050, 2100 and 2150 for selected North American cities. Projections changes are relative to 2005, which \r\nis the central year for the 1994-2014 reference period. Horizontal lines in the boxes represent the median projection, boxes represent 25th to 75th percentile and whiskers \r\nthe 10th to 90th percentile of SLR projections from all CMIP6 models as well as other lines of evidence (see Fox-Kemper et al., 2021 Table 9.7 for more details). Two SLR \r\nscenarios are provided for lower (SSP126) and higher emissions (SSP585), and are consistent with the WGI AR6 Interactive Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021b. Numbers and \r\ncolours (see Table Box 14.4.1 for detailed readiness definitions) on the map and in the projections represent the sites and status of SLR adaptation progress. Information \r\nsupporting SLR adaptation status is summarised in Table Box 14.4.1."


id: 603da7cb2389a23dd1db723019f380fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Table Box 14.4.1 |  Status of adaptation actions for locations on the SLR map above according to level of SLR preparedness through adaptation (as discoverable on \r\ngovernment websites)"


id: 5a7575e081083381db82ec0ced1618b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"WUCA, 2021). In the southwest USA, water utilities have introduced \r\ndemand-management programmes to encourage water conservation \r\n(e.g., tiered pricing, incentives for water-efficient appliances and \r\nfixtures, and rewards for replacing water-guzzling lawns with water\u0002thrifty native vegetation) (Section 14.5.3.3; Luthy et al., 2020; Baker, \r\n2021). Water providers also have increased their adaptive capacity by \r\ndiversifying water sources (Hanak et al., 2015)."


id: c15af01d87505156620229b62d3fa5fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28006
content:
"Adaptation to the risks of wildland-urban interface fire is underway \r\n(see Box 14.2; Kovacs et al., 2020), but the scope of adaptation required \r\nto sufficiently minimise wildfire risks for cities and settlements across \r\nNorth America has not been assessed (medium confidence). Leadership \r\nat the local level is increasingly supported by federal resources that \r\nprovide guidance on hazard and exposure assessment, property \r\nprotection, community resilience and emergency planning (National \r\nResearch Council of Canada, 2021)."


id: 5218758c02fed2cf4b8da82307f19035
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Cities and settlements in North America can be susceptible to multiple \r\nflooding hazards (i.e., coastal SLR, pluvial or fluvial flooding); each \r\npresents unique adaptation challenges that can be addressed through \r\nstructural (e.g., armouring coastlines, reservoirs, levees, floodgates; New \r\nYork City commuter tunnels) and non-structural approaches (e.g., land\u0002use planning and zoning, expanding green infrastructure; Chetumal, \r\nMexico) (high confidence) (Hardoy et al., 2014). Green infrastructure \r\npractices (e.g., open-space preservation, floodplain restoration, urban \r\nforestry, de-channelisation of streams) (see Box  14.7) can reduce "


id: 440a2b483bbdc126cae0b92bcbc4e9b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"but varies in preparedness (high confidence) (see Box 14.4). Efforts are \r\nsupported by SLR design guidelines. In Canada, the Government of \r\nBritish Columbia provided SLR projections for 2050 (i.e., +0.5 m) and \r\n2100 (i.e., +1 m) in order to initiate community vulnerability and risk \r\nassessment, and adaptation planning (The Arlington Group Planning \r\n+ Architecture Inc et al., 2013). Based on recent hurricane impacts in \r\nYucatan, Mexico, recommendations to enhance the rules governing the \r\nMexican Recovery Program included incorporating local knowledge and \r\nIK when rebuilding houses and other structures on coasts (Audefroy \r\nand Cabrera Sanchez, 2017). Where in-place adaptation is insufficient, \r\nplanned retreat is being considered as a sustainable option for reducing \r\nfuture risks (Saunders-Hastings et al., 2020)."


id: 7b0bb32f7494c1357d58fe29175ece28
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"mortality and morbidity (Li et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2014; Barreca et al., \r\n2016; Allen and Sheridan, 2018). Adaptation has played an important \r\nrole in reducing observed heat-related deaths (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., \r\n2018b)."


id: 3dea4cc45ab00ff67e26964b9393e543
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Rising temperatures are projected to increase heat-related mortality \r\nacross emission scenarios this century in North America (very high \r\nconfidence), although the magnitude of increase varies geographically \r\n(Isaksen et al., 2014; Petkova et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2014; Weinberger \r\net al., 2017; Anderson et al., 2018a; Limaye et al., 2018; Marsha et al., 2018; \r\nMorefield et al., 2018). Elderly people (Isaksen et al., 2014; Limaye et al., \r\n2018) and urban areas (Limaye et al., 2018) are projected to experience \r\nthe greatest increase in heat-related mortality this century. Warming \r\ntemperatures are also projected to increase heat-related morbidity \r\n(medium confidence). For instance, the incidence and treatment costs of \r\nasthma attributed to warmer temperatures are projected to increase in \r\nTexas by 2040-2050 (A1B) (McDonald et al., 2015)."


id: 2f09b175ecbdcd95b93cb4e697415da7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Research examining climate-change impacts on human health in North \r\nAmerica has increased substantially since AR5 (Harper et al., 2021a). \r\nUsing a systematic approach (Harper et  al., 2021b), the assessment \r\nfocused on advancements since AR5."


id: 988429896db8b4337db1a8d4550b0132
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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"While heat-related mortality is projected to increase across emissions \r\nscenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways, fewer deaths are \r\nprojected under both lower-emissions scenarios and higher-adaptation \r\nscenarios in North America (very high confidence). Heat-related \r\nmortality was projected to be 50% less under RCP4.5 compared with \r\nRCP8.5 in the USA for SSP3 and SSP5 (Table  14.5; Wu et  al., 2014; \r\nMarsha et al., 2018)."


id: 410aa10c136f5ffe0014a200254c4c51
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"High temperatures currently increase mortality and morbidity in North \r\nAmerica (very high confidence), with impacts that vary by age, gender, \r\nlocation and socioeconomic factors (very high confidence). Observed \r\nincreases in heat-related mortality have been attributed to climate \r\nchange in North America (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021). Temperature \r\neffects on health vary based on how unusual the temperature is for that \r\ntime and location (medium evidence, high agreement), highlighting \r\nthe important role that temperature extremes and variability play in "


id: dcf5424909c17be30b0d905866621714
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vector_id: 32260
content:
"Winter season mortality rates are generally high in high-income regions \r\nsuch as North America, with most of that mortality due to cardiovascular \r\ndiseases (Ebi and Mills, 2013). It is important to differentiate between "


id: 5f50d995da60ed01f61bdff6d52b0a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"et  al., 2011; Rappold et  al., 2012; Reid et  al., 2016) and underlying \r\nmedical conditions (Liu et  al., 2015). The intersectionality of these \r\nsubgroups plays an important role in health-related vulnerability \r\nto wildfire smoke. Among the elderly in the western USA, risks of \r\nrespiratory admissions from wildfire smoke was significantly higher for \r\nAfrican American women in lower-education counties (Liu et al., 2017b). \r\nFor Indigenous Peoples, medical visits for respiratory distress, heart \r\ndisease and headaches increased during a wildfire in California (Lee \r\net al., 2009). In northern Canada, Indigenous livelihoods were disrupted \r\nduring a wildfire, which negatively impacted mental, emotional and \r\nphysical health (Dodd et al., 2018a; Howard et al., 2021)."


id: 7a17dc74f300e57f1ae8b78a56874251
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Mortality attributed to cold temperatures has increased in the USA \r\nand remained stable in Canada from 1985 to 2012 despite increasing \r\nwinter temperatures (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018b). Some attenuation \r\nin cold-related mortality in Mexico and warmer US states is projected \r\nunder climate change, but less so in colder climates in northeast USA \r\nand Canada, with statistically insignificant trends in some regions \r\nand increasing cold-related mortality in other regions (Li et al., 2013; \r\nMills et al., 2015b; Schwartz et al., 2015; Sarofim et al., 2016a; Wang \r\net al., 2016; Gasparrini et al., 2017; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018a; Lee \r\net al., 2019). These reductions in cold-related mortality are generally \r\nconsidered relatively small."


id: f40902d16374821a3862a60aeb0d9920
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Observed and projected trends in winter mortality highlight that non\u0002climate factors may have a greater role in driving winter mortality than \r\ncold temperature, and that these deaths are expected to occur with or \r\nwithout climate change (Ebi and Mills, 2013; Ebi, 2015; Sarofim et al., \r\n2016a). This challenges the assumption that warmer winters due to \r\nclimate change would dramatically lower winter season mortality \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3138
content:
"Climate change is projected to impact the distribution, abundance \r\nand infection rates of mosquitoes in North America (high confidence), \r\nwhich will increase risk of mosquito-borne diseases including West Nile \r\nvirus, chikungunya and dengue (medium confidence). The geographic \r\ndistribution of West Nile virus is projected to expand in North America \r\nthis century (A1B) (Harrigan et  al., 2014). In the USA and Canada, \r\nmosquitoes are projected to emerge earlier in the year and remain \r\nactive longer into the fall; however, mosquito population dynamics \r\nvary by location with northern locations projected to have an increased \r\nvector abundance, and currently hot areas may become too hot, thus \r\nnegatively affecting mosquito survival (A2, A1B, B1) (Chen et al., 2013; \r\nMorin and Comrie, 2013; Brown et al., 2015a)."


id: 138eece9120901c649af5cda5b84380f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 582
content:
"Smoke from intensified wildfire activity in North America is associated \r\nwith respiratory distress (very high confidence), and persists long \r\ndistances from the wildfire and beyond the initial high-exposure time \r\n(see Box  14.2; Hutchinson et  al., 2018). Exposure to wildfire smoke \r\nincreases hospital admissions (McLean et  al., 2015; Alman et  al., \r\n2016; Reid et al., 2016; Yao et al., 2016; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017). \r\nIncreased wildfire smoke from climate change is projected to result \r\nin more respiratory hospital admissions in the western USA by 2046-\r\n2051 (A1B) (Liu et al., 2016; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017)."


id: e8f66ec427a87ae25b10e18a3b14b25b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34169
content:
"Local transmission of chikungunya virus has emerged in Mexico and \r\nthe USA since AR5, and areas suitable for transmission are projected \r\nto expand (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) (Tjaden et  al., 2017). Although \r\nchikungunya virus is not currently in Canada, climate change is \r\nprojected to make southern British Columbia suitable for virus \r\ntransmission this century, particularly under RCP8.5 (Ng et al., 2017)."


id: 235af5b3d00e20ea7d914bdb6e251b4c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3015
content:
"The magnitude of health risks varies by age (Le et al., 2014; Reid et al., \r\n2016; Liu et al., 2017a; Liu et al., 2017b), gender (Delfino et al., 2009; \r\nRojas-Downing et  al., 2017), socioeconomic conditions (Henderson "


id: 6bf1e596d987b857e8da7729f9f48ac3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14604
content:
"The dengue mosquito vector is well established in Mexico and the \r\nsoutheast USA. In northwest Mexico, incidence of dengue cases is "


id: bf76760dd15f77758e16a97180430ca9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27680
content:
"associated with minimum monthly temperature (Diaz-Castro et al., 2017), \r\nand the geographic range of the vector in the USA is restricted, in part, \r\nby low temperatures. Thus, a northward range expansion is projected; \r\nhowever, future dengue risk also depends on built environments and \r\ncompetition with other mosquito species (Colon-Gonzalez et al., 2013a; \r\nEisen and Moore, 2013). Climate change is projected to increase the \r\ngeographic range and extend the seasonal activity of the dengue vector \r\nin the southern USA by 2045-2065 (A1B); however, transmission is \r\nprojected to be limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland \r\nUSA, potentially preventing its permanent establishment (Butterworth \r\net  al., 2017). In Mexico, increased dengue cases are projected this \r\ncentury (A1B, A2, B1) (Colon-Gonzalez et al., 2013b)."


id: 9f40b5b34f8c0db378ee856a04c31d69
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22594
content:
"and Summan, 2015). Outbreaks of Vibrio parahaemolyticus have been \r\nassociated with the consumption of raw oysters harvested from higher\u0002than-usual ocean temperatures in Canada and Alaska (McLaughlin \r\net  al., 2005; Taylor et  al., 2018). Warmer air temperature increases \r\nCampylobacter, Salmonella and E. coli prevalence in Canadian meat \r\nproducts (Smith et al., 2019), higher microbial load in American produce \r\n(Ward et al., 2015) and increased Campylobacter spp., pathogenic E. \r\ncoli and Salmonella spp. infections in humans (Akil et al., 2014; Valcour \r\net al., 2016; Uejio, 2017)."


id: a20ed9a94ccab5c3c3a1f7e985cff883
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23062
content:
"Climate change is projected to increase food safety risks (medium \r\nconfidence); however, the actual burden of food-borne disease will \r\ndepend on the efficacy of public health interventions (high confidence). \r\nIncreased ciguatera fish poisoning is associated with increased \r\nsea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical storm frequency, and \r\nthis risk is projected to increase this century (Gingold et  al., 2014). \r\nCampylobacter infection in humans due to food contamination from \r\nflies is projected to increase this century in Canada (Cousins et  al., \r\n2019), and increased housefly populations are projected this century \r\nin Mexico (Meraz Jimenez et al., 2019). Climate change may also lead \r\nto new emerging food-borne disease risks. For instance, V. cholerae is \r\na pathogen previously restricted to tropical regions; however, due to \r\nwarming ocean temperatures, its detection has significantly increased \r\nalong Canadian coasts (Banerjee et al., 2018)."


id: 320ed2b02f64fa2dfe0fa9a74dd9d2d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5284
content:
"Heavy precipitation events are associated with contaminated \r\ndrinking water and water-borne disease in North America (high \r\nconfidence). Acute gastrointestinal illnesses increase with many \r\nhydro-climatological variables, including precipitation, streamflow \r\nand snowmelt (Harper et al., 2011; Wade et al., 2014; Galway et al., \r\n2015). Extreme precipitation is associated with Campylobacter and \r\nSalmonella infections in the USA, particularly in counties characterised \r\nby farms and private well water (Soneja et  al., 2016). In Canada, \r\nhuman Giardia infections are associated with increased temperature, \r\nprecipitation, pathogen presence in livestock manure, and river water \r\nlevel and flow (Brunn et al., 2019). Land-use patterns and aquifer-types \r\nare associated with water-borne disease, and ecological zones with \r\nhigher water-borne rates are projected to expand in range in Canada \r\nby 2080 (Brubacher et al., 2020)."


id: 1a97ca59684ce5e4f4206f2169ef3f8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1662
content:
"Climate change is projected to increase human food-borne exposure \r\nto chemical contaminants (medium confidence). Increases in SST have \r\nbeen associated with greater accumulation of mercury in seafood, \r\nmarine mammals and fish (Ziska et al., 2016). This particularly increases \r\nfood safety risks in the Arctic, with methylmercury and polychlorinated \r\nbiphenyl concentrations in high trophic animals projected to increase \r\nunder high-emission scenarios by 2100 (Alava et al., 2017; Alava et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 746d57b77f1a9bdecfe2d860342ee311
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15908
content:
"Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally, and are \r\ninfluenced, in part, by food availability, accessibility, preparation and \r\npreferences (medium confidence). For example, seafood risks are \r\nmore pronounced in coastal regions due to high seafood consumption \r\n(Radke et  al., 2015). In Alaska and northern Canada, where locally \r\nharvested foods are critical to diet, climate change may introduce \r\nnew pathogens to local food sources through wildlife range changes, \r\nwarming temperatures affecting safe fermentation and drying \r\npreparation methods, and food temperature control in below-ground \r\ncold storage in or near permafrost (King and Furgal, 2014; Harper \r\net al., 2015; Rapinski et al., 2018)."


id: 55f41b126686685fdf00ffccba2329bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11008
content:
"Agricultural productivity declines due to climate change (Section 14.5.4) \r\nare projected to lower caloric availability and increase the prevalence \r\nof underweight people and climate-related deaths in North America by \r\n2050 (IMPAACT) (Springmann et al., 2016a; Springmann et al., 2016b; \r\nSpringmann et al., 2018); however, this lower caloric availability could \r\nalso reduce obesity, which could result in deaths avoided (Springmann \r\net al., 2016a; Springmann et al., 2016b). The climate-related deaths per \r\ncapita due to reduced fruit and vegetable consumption is projected to \r\nexceed the mortality due to reduced caloric intake in North America "


id: 317fb1b7ed4f1954ddc455cbc69d13eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5197
content:
"Warmer air temperature, changes in precipitation, extreme weather \r\nevents and ocean warming can increase microbial pathogen loads \r\nin food (very high confidence). Indeed, temperature and extreme \r\nweather are top factors influencing food safety in Canada (Charlebois "


id: b7a6365b3c3185aa01b8a5642f68729
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26420
content:
"by 2050, particularly in Canada and the USA (Springmann et  al., \r\n2016a; Springmann et  al., 2016b). These climate-change projections \r\nunderscore the importance of focusing on nutritional security in North \r\nAmerica, instead of only considering caloric intake."


id: 421b4e9df2ebae17a12c363e158b3f6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7800
content:
"Tourism is one of the largest and fastest-growing industries in North \r\nAmerica, contributing 2.5 trillion USD to North America's GDP in 2019 \r\n(WTTC, 2018; Duro and Turrion-Prats, 2019). The USA is the world's \r\nlargest tourism economy (with a 1.839 trillion USD contribution to the \r\nglobal GDP in 2019), Mexico is ranked ninth (196  billion USD) and \r\nCanada thirteenth (108 billion USD) (WTTC, 2018). The tourism industry \r\nis both impacted by climate change and significantly contributes to it \r\nthrough the emission of GHGs from travel and activities (Becken and \r\nHay, 2007). By 2060, under RCP8.5, Canada and the USA are projected \r\nto benefit from climate-induced changes in tourism expenditures of up \r\nto 92 and 21%, respectively, whereas Mexico could experience a 25% \r\ndecrease (OECD, 2015; Scott et al., 2019a)."


id: c1c89294b0698139a71ecf4a152f274a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28072
content:
"Shifting to a more sustainable diet can have adaptation and mitigation \r\nco-benefits while simultaneously improving health outcomes for \r\nNorth Americans. Transitioning to more plant-based diets is projected \r\nto reduce climate-related deaths in Canada, the USA and Mexico by \r\n2050 (Springmann et  al., 2016a; Springmann et  al., 2016b), while \r\nsimultaneously reducing food-related GHG emissions per capita in \r\nNorth America by 2050 (Springmann et al., 2018)."


id: 82cbeb225ae1856df2e9aeb7c9fdc3da
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18105
content:
"Nutrition impacts will not be experienced uniformly within countries \r\n(Shannon et  al., 2015; Zeuli et  al., 2018). In Alaska and Canada, IK \r\nhas documented how climate change has already impacted locally \r\nharvested foods and challenged nutrition security (CCP6; Lynn et  al., \r\n2013; Petrasek MacDonald et al., 2013; Harper et al., 2015; Hupp et al., \r\n2015; Bunce et  al., 2016). For First Nations coastal communities in \r\nwestern Canada, decreased access to traditionally harvested seafood \r\nis projected to reduce nutritional status by 2050 (RCP2.5, RCP8.5), with \r\nhigher nutritional impacts for men and older adults (Marushka et al., \r\n2019). Substitution of seafood with non-traditional foods (e.g., chicken, \r\ncanned tuna) would not replace the projected nutrients lost (Marushka \r\net al., 2019), challenging assumptions that market food substitutions \r\ncould be effective adaptation strategies for Indigenous Peoples"


id: 588f7c34e9cddd456832b72f08130847
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11433
content:
"Climate change has had, and will continue to have, negative impacts \r\non mental health in North America (high confidence) (Figure  14.8). \r\nClimate change impacts mental health through multiple direct and \r\nindirect pathways stemming from extreme weather events, slower, \r\ncumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events (Cunsolo Willox \r\net al., 2013; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2014; Durkalec et al., 2015; Yusa \r\net al., 2015; Schwartz et al., 2017; Trombley et al., 2017; Burke et al., \r\n2018b; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Dodd et al., 2018b; Hayes et al., 2018; \r\nMiddleton et al., 2020b). Climate-change disruptions to infrastructure, \r\nunderlying determinants of health and changing-place attachment are \r\nalso stressors on mental health (Vida et al., 2012; Cunsolo Willox et al., \r\n2013; Burke et al., 2018b; Obradovich et al., 2018)."


id: 499e8afc7fac6a4dc9b76c74d4e7af63
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8970
content:
"In North America, climate change has been linked to strong emotional \r\nreactions; depression and generalised anxiety; ecological grief and loss; \r\nincreased drug and alcohol usage, family stress and domestic violence; \r\nincreased suicide and suicide ideation; and loss of cultural knowledge \r\nand place-based identities and connections (Cunsolo Willox et  al., \r\n2013; Durkalec et  al., 2015; Harper et  al., 2015; Fernandez-Arteaga \r\net al., 2016; Schwartz et al., 2017; Trombley et al., 2017; Burke et al., \r\n2018b; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Clayton, 2020; Dumont et al., 2020)."


id: 93dbfbf6e473327ce1cb5819a28f8a55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20771
content:
"Sea level rise, increased storm surge, wave action, algae blooms, \r\nextreme air temperatures, and changes in wind and precipitation \r\npatterns threaten coastal tourism infrastructure, submerge beaches, \r\nerode walking paths on coasts, and impact destination attractiveness, \r\ntourism demand and recreation economies (very high confidence). Warm \r\nweather tourism activities, including beach tourism, snorkelling and \r\nnational park visitation, will have more time to implement adaptation "


id: b590386093b790fd1108aaff5f64b99f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26097
content:
"Suicide is projected to increase in Mexico and the USA by 2050 due to \r\nrising temperatures (RCP8.5) (limited evidence) (Burke et al., 2018b). \r\nLiterature on climate change and mental health in North America is \r\nincreasing; however, few population-level quantitative studies exist, \r\nalthough they are increasing (e.g., Burke et al., 2018b; Kim et al., 2019; \r\nDumont et al., 2020; Middleton et al., 2021)."


id: 4fc8b5a453785322f1207ded1e966022
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9993
content:
"Indirect exposure(s)\r\n(e.g., displacement, relocation, \r\ndisruptions to food systems, cultural\r\nactivities, place-based knowledge \r\nsharing and livelihoods)"


id: 127d66bf89c5f8019306ba61fdd6944e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 405
content:
"Vicarious exposure(s)\r\n(e.g., seeing friends and family suffer, \r\nmediated experiences of climate \r\nchange, anticipating future changes)"


id: 8aa0b5da506a1a93860548e2e7318013
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19352
content:
"Diminished wellbeing\r\n(e.g., stress, sadness, climate-related grief\r\nand anxiety, impaired mental functioning)"


id: b24c2496a8de592521300981f8f6132f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25560
content:
"Diminished social relations \r\n(e.g., domestic violence, loss of culture,\r\nreduced social capital)"


id: 1215991d95453dd7bab4d06a30dd24c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 342
content:
"has enhanced adaptive capacity through integrated planning and \r\nmanagement (Lemieux et al., 2015), and technological advancements \r\nhave reduced the vulnerability of alpine winter sports from warming \r\ntemperatures (e.g., snowmaking, refrigerated surfaces, chemical \r\nadditives) (Rutty and Scott, 2015; Scott et al., 2019b; Scott et al., 2020). \r\nSnowmaking as an adaptation strategy affects mitigation efforts by \r\nincreasing the need for energy and fuel (Scott et al., 2019b)."


id: 8a78ed5eac5fbc2e93a2caee499a5d53
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19324
content:
"Tourists are also highly adaptable and, depending on their levels of \r\nplace attachment, location loyalty and socio-demographics, are very \r\nlikely to substitute the timing or location of their travel activity based \r\non climate and climatic-driven environmental changes (Rutty and Scott, \r\n2015; Atzori et al., 2018). Lemieux (2017) found that if the state of the \r\nAthabasca Glacier (CA-PR) (Figure 14.1) were to change negatively as \r\na result of climate change, 83% would travel elsewhere, and if large \r\ninfrastructure were built as an adaptive measure for viewing receding \r\nglaciers at Jasper National Park, 40% of tourists would no longer visit."


id: 2009ed94efcfae5ecbf4cf54b20003fd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2484
content:
"Compared with other economic sectors (Section 14.5.8), the tourism \r\nindustry has high adaptive capacity (high confidence) (Figure  14.9). \r\nInvestments in climate-resilient infrastructure within Canadian \r\nNational Parks have increased visitation rates during the shoulder \r\nseasons (Fisichelli et  al., 2015; Lemieux et  al., 2017; Wilkins et  al., \r\n2018), regional collaboration among US and Canadian park agencies "


id: 11bda7a0fc5075b16b5c7bd0e61cdc8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 285
content:
"Figure 14.9 |  Burning ember of the relative risks to select tourism activities in North America with and without adaptation as a function of global mean \r\nsurface temperature increase since pre-industrial times. Risks to tourism activities include: (a) season length reductions from warming temperatures for Nordic skiing and \r\nsnowmobiling, (b) season length reductions from warming temperatures and precipitation changes for alpine skiing, (c) visitor-experience changes as a result of warming surface \r\nand ocean temperatures for beach tourism and degrading coral reef systems for snorkelling and (d) visitor-experience changes related to warming temperatures and changing \r\nlandscape aesthetic for Parks and Protected Areas. Risks assessed cover all of North America (c,d), or are specific to certain regions (a,b) . The supporting literature and methods \r\nare provided in Supplementary Material (SM14.4)."


id: da012700f81ab8058daac6d461e02e76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31827
content:
"represents a broader synthesis, especially for sectors with a smaller \r\nliterature base and at higher GWLs. The assessment of the risks of \r\nclimate change on tourism (Section  14.5.7) and the interactions \r\nbetween sectors through trade (see Box 14.5) are discussed separately."


id: 7083e21b9a239521ff4ccf9cda986113
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15319
content:
"The wide range of observed and projected impacts of climate hazards \r\non food and fibre in North America are documented in Section 14.5.4 \r\n(also see Chapter 5). Agriculture (US-NW: corn and soybeans), fisheries \r\n(cod and pollock) and forestry (Boreal Forest timber yield) are expected \r\nto experience substantial and widespread risks by 2degC of global \r\nwarming above pre-industrial levels (medium to high confidence)\r\n(Figure 14.10). Economic models generally show economic losses in \r\nthe agricultural sector across North America, especially at higher GWL \r\n(Section  14.5.4; EPA, 2017; Boyd and Markandya, 2021), although \r\nthe effects in local economies, especially rural areas of the USA that \r\nare highly dependent on agriculture, will be substantial even at lower \r\nGWLs (Gowda et al., 2018). Full evaluations of climate risks for forestry \r\nand fisheries are presented in Sections  14.5.1 and 14.5.4 (also see \r\nSection 14.6), respectively."


id: 7d864274e68f2449aad66a39b02ff666
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17320
content:
"Climate change is increasing the demand for electric power for cooling \r\nand threatens existing power supply (high confidence) (Section 14.5.5). \r\nIncreased energy demand often occurs during peak energy usage and \r\nespecially during heatwaves (Cruz and Krausmann, 2013; Leong and \r\nDonner, 2015). Cooling represented 74% of peak electricity demand in \r\nPhiladelphia on a particularly hot day in July 2011 (Waite et al., 2017; IEA, \r\n2018b). In Canada, warming temperatures are expected to reduce demand \r\nfor heating by 18-33% and increase demand for cooling by 14-126% \r\nby 2070 compared with 1959-1989 and 1998-2014 baseline periods, \r\nrespectively (Berardi and Jafarpur, 2020). The effects on hydropower are \r\nuneven across the region with the potential for increases in capacity in "


id: 1f0a56b54002305d5059fede1b44cc4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2325
content:
"Transportation infrastructure, including roads, bridges, rail, air, sea and \r\npipelines, are highly vulnerable to rising temperatures, SLR, weather \r\nextremes, changing ice conditions, permafrost degradation and flooding \r\n(high confidence), resulting in damage, disruption to operations, unsafe \r\nconditions and supply chain impacts (see Box 14.5; Board and Council, \r\n2008; Natural Resources Conservation Service; Andrey and Palko, \r\n2017; Jacobs et al., 2018; Lemmen et al., 2021). In the Mexican states \r\nof Veracruz, Tabasco, San Luis Potosi, Chiapas and Oaxaca, 105,000 \r\ninfrastructure sites, mostly major connecting roads, were found to be "


id: 5f060ac4826066fa0f947afe1cc7f1c5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12491
content:
"Canada but declines of over 20% in Mexico (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) (Turner \r\net al., 2017). Electricity demand in the USA is projected to increase by \r\n5.3% per degree Celsius rise in temperature (Hsiang et al., 2017). Energy \r\ninfrastructure, such as drilling platforms, refineries and pipelines, and \r\nevacuation routes, are also increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels, \r\nhurricanes, storm surges, mobile multi-year sea ice, erosion, inland flooding, \r\nwildfires and other climate-related changes (Zamuda et al., 2018)."


id: 7b12810ecfbeab125df7ca24031d9714
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Twelve million Americans (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015), 1.5 million \r\nCanadians (Statistics Canada, 2020) and 9 million Mexicans (Statistics \r\nMexico, 2021) are employed in manufacturing. The southeast USA and \r\nTexas have the highest manufacturing output, with 34% of total US output \r\n(700 billion USD yr-1). The impact of climate change on manufacturing \r\nvaries greatly by region. Vulnerability of the sector to climate change \r\nstems from exposure of workers to increasing temperatures and humidity, \r\nexposure of facilities to SLR and flooding, and changes in water supply \r\nand quality required in many manufacturing processes (Lall et al., 2018)."


id: 611c3b4aaf9e94c55510555e57108dad
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"Adaptation options are highly diverse and sector specific (EPA, 2017). \r\nRegardless of economic sector, companies that implement effective \r\nand rapid response options that address climate change stressors "


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"reducing flood risks, enhancing travel advisories and alerts, elevating \r\nor relocating new infrastructure where feasible and changing infra\u0002structure design requirements to include climate-change considera\u0002tions or to introduce new flood event thresholds (Natural Resources \r\nConservation Service, 2008; EPA, 2017; Pendakur, 2017). Railroads are \r\ntesting temperature sensors on rail tracks to provide early warning of \r\nbuckling. Sensors that signal when tracks are approaching dangerous \r\ntemperatures may help to avoid accidents (Hodge et al., 2014; Chi\u0002nowsky et al., 2019)."


id: 386e3eef46589929c2ebbaa7d8c2ae0a
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"will have a competitive advantage (Gasbarro et  al., 2016, Lemmen, \r\n2021). Most companies focus on short-term risk management and, \r\nconsequently, short-term adaptation is often favoured over long-term \r\napproaches particularly in the private sector, which will be ineffective \r\nfor climate-change risk reduction over the long term (Gasbarro et al., \r\n2016)."


id: f709546a9cc594360988444fc7989385
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Investment and coordination of climate services (forecasting) can \r\nsupport many economic sectors across North America. In 2017, 15% \r\nof Standard and Poor's (S&P, US industry credit rating agency) 500 \r\ncompanies publicly disclosed an effect on earnings from weather \r\nevents, reflecting a growing trend (Williams et al., 2018). Existing US \r\nfederal-sponsored planning tools provide guidance to states and to \r\nplan for SLR and flooding with large threats to commercial sectors (US \r\nDepartment of Transportation, 2015). The NOAA Coastal Services Center \r\nSLR and coastal inundation viewer7\r\n, the Army Corps of Engineers Sea \r\nLevel Change Curve simulator, and Climate Central's interactive portal \r\n(Ocean at the Door) all provide access to visualisations of future SLR \r\nthat are available to US coastal cities and towns for commercial planning \r\npurposes. Similar resources are being developed and are available for \r\nCanada including Canada's Climate Atlas8\r\n."


id: 7f80da66d681d1d23d2f79d4fa9f7836
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Adaptation options for transportation and related infrastructure in\u0002clude engineering and technological solutions, as well as innovative \r\npolicy, planning, management and maintenance approaches (Natural \r\nResources Conservation Service, 2008; Jacobs et al., 2018). For north\u0002ern transportation, new technologies and infrastructure adaptations \r\ncan be employed to facilitate heat extraction (e.g., air convection em\u0002bankments, heat drains, thermosyphons, high albedo surfacing, gentle \r\nembankment slopes) (McGregor et al., 2010b; United Nations, 2020) \r\nAdaptation options for roads include changing pavement mixes to be \r\nmore tolerant to heat or frost heaving, expanding drainage capacity, "


id: d81f58107b6d92e990b695decbd50706
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"Trade, defined as the sum of exports and imports, accounts for 30% of North American GDP. Trade flows within North America are valued \r\nat $1.3 trillion USD annually (2019 dollars). Variations within the region are notable: Mexico relies on trade for 80% of its GDP and \r\nCanada for 66% (World Bank, 2020a). Canada and the USA traded over 55.2 billion USD worth of products related to the agriculture \r\nindustry between 2015 and 2018 (Government of Canada, 2019). Canada, the USA and Mexico have the longest-running trade pacts \r\nglobally and these agreements have played a major role in supporting economic and social development in the region (see (Frankel and \r\nRose, 2005; Eaton et al., 2016; World Bank, 2020b); however, recent changes to the North American Free Trade agreement do not clearly \r\naddress climate change (Lucatello, 2019)."


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"Exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards have varied across North \r\nAmerica by region and population (high confidence). These differences \r\nhave been often underpinned by social and economic inequalities and \r\nhave been observed between households, social groups, rural and \r\nurban communities, and Indigenous Peoples (high confidence). These \r\nvulnerabilities have also been observed to contribute to maladaptation \r\n(medium confidence) (Section 14.5.9.1). Social and economic trends \r\nand development will determine near-term impacts on livelihoods from \r\nprojected climate hazards; livelihoods will also adapt to the risks and \r\nopportunities (high confidence) (Section 14.5.9.2). Actions to enhance \r\nthe livelihoods of the most vulnerable social groups in North America \r\nwill lessen the impacts of climate hazards on them (high confidence) \r\n(Section 14.5.9.3)."


id: a5ea95baf4fad5bbddbeaeceda1c585f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Livelihoods are 'the resources used and the activities undertaken in \r\norder to live. Livelihoods are usually determined by the entitlements and \r\nassets to which people have access' (Section 8.1.1; IPCC, 2018). While \r\noften understood as subsistence or traditional ways of life (Oswal, 1991), \r\nlivelihoods are often conceptualised more broadly as encompassing \r\nthe economic, cultural, and social capitals or assets, capabilities, and \r\nactivities that individuals, households and social groups use as the \r\nmeans to make a living (DFID, 1999; Obrist et al., 2010)."


id: 85ccb8a7bd519a39640dca56110c56a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Past and current patterns of development in North America have \r\npropagated and perpetuated vulnerabilities that have created \r\ndifferential impacts on livelihoods from climate hazards (high \r\nconfidence). Predatory and extractive economies have underpinned "


id: 87a244d8601eb704af5a6d59ec69d8fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Formal attribution of economic damages from individual extreme events to anthropogenic climate change has been limited, but climate \r\nchange could account for a substantial fraction of the damages (limited evidence, medium agreement). Two recent studies have shown \r\napproaches for how damages may be attributed for individual events in the USA. Assuming a direct proportionality between attributable \r\nrisk of the event to the attributable economic damages, one study suggested that 30-75% of the direct damages from Hurricane Harvey \r\nwas caused by climate change, with a best estimate of 67 billion USD out of an estimated 90 billion USD total of attributable damages \r\n(Frame et al., 2020). Another study modelled the component of the flooding from Hurricane Sandy due to rising SLR and mapped that to \r\ncoastal damages. That study estimated that 8.1 billion USD (13% of the total) was attributable to the climate influence on SLR (Strauss \r\net al., 2021)."


id: e014d1535acd7753f638a0f60e9636a8
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"The effect of climate change has been identified in aggregate measures of economic performance, such as GDP, in North America and \r\nglobally (medium confidence), although the magnitude of these changes is difficult to constrain (medium confidence). Climate change \r\nhas been observed to affect national GDP level and economic growth (low confidence). The extent to which climate has affected GDP \r\nmay be challenging to identify statistically (Cross-Working Group Box ECONOMIC in Chapter 16). Observed GDP effects are generally \r\nslightly negative in the USA, higher and negative for Mexico, and the directionality of the effects in Canada varies by study and modelling \r\napproach (Burke et al., 2015; Colacito et al., 2018; Kahn et al., 2019)."


id: bd628182f0f435c8c46cea8cc2972617
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Market and non-market risks and costs will not be experienced equally across countries, sectors and regions in North America (high \r\nconfidence). For the USA, energy expenditures and improvements in agricultural yields are projected to result in net gains in the north \r\nand Pacific Northwest whereas in the south, higher heat-related mortality, increases in energy expenditures, SLR and storm surge are \r\nprojected to result in economic losses by the end of century (Hsiang et al., 2017). No region in the USA is expected to avoid some level of \r\nadverse effects (medium evidence, high agreement) (EPA, 2017; Martinich and Crimmins, 2019). Economic models generally show losses \r\nin the agricultural sector across North America, especially at higher GWL (Boyd and Markandya, 2021; EPA 2017). Some models show \r\nlarge gains in parts of Canada, although these models do not capture the full range of climate hazards including change in precipitation \r\nor extreme events (Boyd and Markandya, 2021)."


id: f24645c4fc93d95aa932823c52250633
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Economics of Adaptation Opportunities\r\nEconomic analysis can help reveal where the avoided economic damages are greater than the costs of adaptation, improving decision \r\nmaking for adaptation planning and efforts in North America (high confidence). Detailed assessment of total needs and costs of climate \r\nadaptation are limited (Sussman et al., 2014), but estimates suggest that the costs are large (low evidence, high agreement). Cost-benefit "


id: 51b347020a70fd940d48e7219bd0451a
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"and other economic analyses that incorporate damage estimates are expanding for adaptation decision making (Li et al., 2014), especially \r\nfor technical options in areas with high exposure such as coastal areas in Mexico (Haer et al., 2018) and Alaskan infrastructure (Melvin \r\net al., 2017). Cost-benefit analysis has also been applied to coordinating planning across jurisdictions in North America for SLR and flood \r\ncontrol (Adeel et al., 2020). Adaptation costs in the USA are lower on RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5 emission pathways (Martinich and \r\nCrimmins, 2019). Adaptation, however, cannot be based solely on the cost-benefit analysis due to the high level of uncertainty related to \r\nclimate risks (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17)."


id: 17676e7699e636b289e2b56759f0a9a0
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"Improving projections of future economic risk and damages facilitates the development of tools that can be used for economic analysis of \r\nclimate policies (high confidence). Monetised estimates of the damages from climate change have been developed and refined since AR5, \r\nmotivated in part by efforts to estimate the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) (National Academies of Sciences, 2017). Support for these efforts \r\nand the use of SCC in regulatory analysis of mitigation and adaptation efforts have been pledged across the national and subnational \r\ngovernments of Canada, the USA and Mexico. Harmonising SCC and consistent use can further enhance coordination of mitigation and \r\nadaptation decision making (Auffhammer, 2018; Aldy et al., 2021). Using these damages estimates can also inform other policy and \r\ntools that improve the consideration of climate impacts in markets and decision making (Report of the Climate-Related Market Risk \r\nSubcommittee, 2020)."


id: 590e5fb1b5786a2101ecfae576c293b7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"economic activity in North America historically and currently. While \r\ngenerating substantial wealth, these patterns have also driven social \r\nand economic inequality (medium evidence, high agreement) (Jasanof, \r\n2010; Shove, 2010; Klinsky et  al., 2016; Robinson and Shine, 2018). \r\nPatterns of development that reinforce these structures remain a large \r\ncontributor to current social-environmental risks and have affected all \r\nkinds of contemporary livelihoods (Chapter 18; Cannon and Muller\u0002Mahn, 2010; Koch et al., 2019)."


id: a5515092173cc442bbce0f0aa76f4057
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content:
"Migration and mobility have been an important part of livelihoods in \r\nNorth America (high confidence). Movement across North America has \r\nbeen reinforced by social, cultural and economic ties (see Box 14.5). \r\nFor example, middle class retirees from Canada and the USA engage "


id: 6f54eb51f0f63b82c6679b28632f9dc8
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content:
"reduce the exposure to climate hazards for the involved populations \r\nbut could adversely affect their livelihoods in the absence of supportive \r\nprogrammes (Section 7.3.2; Jantarasami et al., 2018a), since livelihood \r\noutcomes strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions."


id: 5481d2903eee8b036fce37d01b5f44e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Livelihoods will evolve as a result of both challenges presented directly \r\nor indirectly from climate impacts as well as socioeconomic changes \r\nand technological developments (high confidence). Livelihoods, \r\nhowever, can be undermined by many of the projected climate risks \r\nwith the impacts depending on adaptive capacity and adaptation \r\nlimits (high confidence) (Section  8.4.5.1). Real areas in Mexico and \r\nthe southern USA with agriculture-based livelihoods and projected \r\nreduction in precipitation will be adversely affected (Section 14.5.4; \r\nEsperon-Rodriguez et al., 2016). Outdoor workers in rural and urban \r\nareas will be exposed to higher health risks from higher temperatures \r\nand heatwaves (Section  14.5.8). Reduced livelihoods will also be \r\nassociated with adverse mental health effects (Section 14.5.6.8)."


id: 93a0c19f940f1448f637bb1224ef9997
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Future climate hazards will deepen patterns of social inequality as \r\nvulnerable groups may also experience intersecting impacts that \r\nadversely affect their livelihoods (medium confidence). Health, in \r\nparticular, will be a key intersection as marginalised and disadvantaged \r\ngroups often have poorer health status and hold occupations that \r\nmay involve higher exposure to climate hazards. African Americans \r\nare expected to experience the largest impacts on their health status \r\ndue to differential exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards \r\n(Section 14.5.6; Marsha et al., 2016)."


id: b2a7f7abb5a817bfdf17961852b49296
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Displacement, migration and resettlement will increase along higher\u0002emission pathways (medium confidence). Combining projections of \r\nSLR and population scenarios for the USA, Haer et al. (2013) and Hauer \r\net al. (2016) have estimated the magnitude of the population at risk \r\nin coastal communities, numbering in the millions. In the near term, \r\nwhere climate hazards influence out-migration, it will mostly augment \r\nexisting patterns as migration is strongly influenced by existing social \r\nnetworks (Section  7.3.2). Planned relocation and resettlements will "


id: a9bf8dedb4b5607a96bf4959cd90174a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Elevated rates of various types of crime have been associated with \r\nhigher temperatures in the USA and Mexico (medium confidence \r\nbased on limited evidence and high agreement) (Section 14.5.10.1). \r\nIf social relationships prevailing now and in the recent past continue, \r\nprojections show future crime rates in the USA and Mexico increasing \r\nwith increasing temperatures (low confidence) (Section  14.5.10.2). "


id: dd58254a138860eecdaed185e77850a0
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content:
"pletely explained by, climatic variability (Scheffer et al., 2021). In the \r\ncentral and southern Maya lowlands, following centuries of increasing \r\npopulations and attempts to produce more maize (Roman et al., 2018), \r\nepisodes of drought and/or increased summer temperatures in the 9th \r\nand 10th centuries (Dunning et al., 2012; Kennett et al., 2012) accom\u0002panied increased conflicts and social disintegration including collapse \r\nof long-lived dynasties, cessation of monumental inscriptions (Carleton \r\net al., 2017) and emigration (medium evidence, medium agreement). \r\nSuch findings reinforce research on contemporary societies that cli\u0002mate-induced farming shortfalls in regions dependent on agriculture \r\nmay induce or exacerbate conflict, especially in interaction with un\u0002favourable demographic, political and socioeconomic factors (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement) (Section 7.2.7; e.g., Koubi, 2019)."


id: e887772aa08bea3814a8bc0bc2a024c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Degradation of human security and conflicts exacerbated by climate \r\nchange-even outside of North America-will increase the demand \r\nfor humanitarian assistance, foreign aid and resettlement (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section 14.5.10.2)."


id: b31d0e0ee93d845f917ee618acafce2b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 25699
content:
"The archaeological record has been used to infer linkages be\u0002tween climatic variability and social process, including violence \r\n(inferred with medium confidence). Past North American societies \r\nhave been exposed to greater climatic variability than is documented \r\nin the instrumental record. Because future climatic conditions are likely \r\nto exceed those known for the recent past (Cross-Chapter Box PALEO \r\nin Chapter 1), the North American archaeological record can illuminate \r\npossible relationships between climate variability and violence that \r\ncannot be observed in the present record. In the upland southwest \r\nUS between 600 and 1280 CE, one study found that violence signifi\u0002cantly increased as climatically controlled maize production decreased \r\nand interannual variability increased (low evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Kohler et al., 2014); massive emigration from the northern Southwest \r\nin the last half of the 1200s CE is connected with, though not com\u0002"


id: 35bb7e100c2a9aa353ecec21d84be522
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"Ten key risks from climate change were identified for North American \r\nbased on definitions and assessment approaches outlined in Chapter \r\n16, which were extended to include the development of a risk database \r\nand analysis that included expert evaluation of interactions between \r\nclimate hazards and sectors (Figure 14.11; SM14.3)."


id: 80c43d43cfdccf0b32b8142dcc96d553
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"In North America, divergent perceptions regarding the attribution \r\nand implications of climate change pose a key risk to adaptation \r\nmainstreaming (KR1). This lack of adequate adaptation in turn amplifies \r\nthreats to human life and safety from intensifying extreme events, fires \r\nand storms (KR2). Climate change hazards pose risks to economic and \r\nsocial well-being (KR3), marine social-ecological systems (KR4), unique \r\nterrestrial ecosystems and their services (KR5), freshwater services \r\n(KR6), physical and mental health (KR7), food and nutritional security \r\n(KR8), and commerce and trade (KR9). Cumulatively, these risks interact \r\nto imperil the quality of life for North American communities, cities and \r\ntowns (KR10)."


id: 470f038cf2fb4003143ff0792c0b56e6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 8560
content:
"Complex factors, including individual beliefs, ideology, world view, par\u0002tisan identity as well as societal context, influence how the public, as \r\nwell as professional groups, communities and policymakers, perceive \r\nand understand climate change (high confidence) (Sections  14.3.3, \r\n14.3.4). While there is expert scientific consensus on anthropogenic \r\nclimate change, rhetoric, misinformation and politicisation of science \r\nhave contributed to misperceptions (high confidence), polarisation on \r\nthe severity of impacts and risks to society, indecision and delayed ac\u0002tion (high confidence) (Section 14.3.1). In North America, this impedes \r\nadaptation efforts (Section 14.3.4) and inflates climate risks (high con\u0002fidence)."


id: 540d68545702ec2f37a829306076b4db
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"Co-benefits from adaptation options include improving the live\u0002ability of, and quality of life in, cities, reducing socioeconomic \r\nvulnerability and exposure to locally higher temperatures (me\u0002dium confidence). Urban settings in the USA have disproportionately \r\nhigher exposure to urban heat island effects in low-income and mi\u0002nority neighbourhoods in US cities (Section 14.5.5.1). Co-benefits from \r\nadaptation responses in the urban landscape can reduce socioeconomic \r\nvulnerabilities and exposure to higher temperatures (Section 14.5.5.3). \r\nEvaluation of adaptation efforts to reduce crime rates that have been \r\nassociated with temperature are limited. In Los Angeles, a link has been \r\ninferred between violence and older buildings that may lack air con\u0002ditioning (Heilmann et al., 2021). By contrast, access to air conditioning \r\ndid not appear to lessen crime rates in Mexico (Baysan et al., 2019)."


id: 303c2043b56676da4a8fc45c8b4182c0
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"Human life and safety across North America, and especially along the \r\ncoasts of Mexico, the Hawaiian Islands, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Canada \r\nand southeast USA, will be placed at risk from SLR and severe storms and \r\nhurricanes, even at 1.5degC GWL (very high confidence) (Sections 14.5.2, \r\n14.5.5; see Box  14.4). Warming, heatwaves and increases in wildfire \r\nactivity in many regions of North America pose risks to air quality, \r\nhealth, lives and property (see Box 14.2). More extreme precipitation and \r\nflooding pose a risk to human morbidity, mortality and safety in fluvial \r\nflood zones and areas downstream of levees, dams and flood culverts. \r\nThe increasing intensity of storm events poses a risk of landslides, erosion \r\nand flooding in shoreline and urban communities, especially high-bank \r\nareas along exposed coasts, in Arctic and temperate areas where winter \r\nsea ice has diminished and in low-lying coastal areas where SLR and "


id: 8d2b7cd71cfb8eb2b6c52ea901c04be6
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content:
"Existing environmental and international agreements that \r\nconsider climate risks can contribute to cooperation (medium \r\nconfidence). Strengthening and empowering existing environmental \r\nand diplomatic avenues (e.g., the Arctic Council and international \r\nagreements such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the \r\nSea, and various subnational actors and agreements) (Section CCP6.3.2) \r\nto incorporate risks from climate impacts could enhance cooperative \r\navenues for defusing conflict (Huebert et  al., 2012). Improving the \r\nconsideration of climate risks in efforts to expand economies and trade \r\n(see Box  14.5), and improvements in peacekeeping (Section  7.4.4; \r\nBarnett, 2018) could also reduce future conflict risks."


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"Figure 14.11 |  Rapid assessment of relative risk by sector (y-axis) and climate hazard (x-axis) for North America based on an assessment of asset-specific \r\nvulnerability and exposure across climate hazards (see SM14.3 for methodological details). For each unique combination, the hazard-by-sector risk was ranked as \r\nvery high (very high risk and high confidence), high (significant impacts and risk, high to medium confidence), medium (impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change, \r\nmedium confidence), low or not detected (risk is low or not detectable). Blank cells are those where the assessment was not applicable or not conducted. Risks identified through \r\nthe rapid assessment were further evaluated in the chapter assessments (see corresponding sector text for full assessment of risk and impacts)."


id: a9d909c7a5de37aab92f4b968376782c
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"will reduce services provided by terrestrial ecosystems, including \r\ntimber yields and carbon sequestration (medium confidence)."


id: b68e4a44018271ae67d2f1650d0b7206
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"storm surge often overwhelm existing natural coastal features and \r\nengineered structures (Section 14.5.5; see Box 14.4)."


id: f599df27adf4b51de589b48b4ba89306
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Heat-related human mortality is projected to increase in North America \r\nas a result of climate change and ageing populations, poverty, chronic \r\ndiseases and inadequate public health systems (very high confidence) \r\n(Section 14.5.6.1). Gradual changes to temperature and precipitation \r\nare impacting urban ecosystems and creating ecosystem regime \r\nchanges resulting in the poleward expansion among insects that \r\nbring risks related to vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus \r\nand Lyme disease (high confidence) (Section 14.5.6). Climate change \r\nis expected to lead to wide-ranging mental health challenges related \r\nto an increase in the psychological burdens of climate change (high \r\nconfidence), particularly for individuals with existing mental health \r\nconditions, who live in severely impacted areas or who are reliant \r\non climate for livelihoods and cultural well-being (e.g., Indigenous \r\nPeoples and farmers) (Section 14.5.6.8)."


id: 36c0d76b176f5956f5126668bd76486f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Cascading and interacting impacts of climate change threatens food \r\nsystems as well as food and nutritional security for many North \r\nAmericans, especially those already experiencing food and nutritional \r\nscarcity, women and children with high nutritional needs and \r\nIndigenous Peoples reliant on subsistence resources (high confidence) \r\n(Section 14.5.6). In agricultural regions experiencing aridification and \r\nwhere water scarcity precludes substantial expansion of irrigation, \r\nwarming and extreme heat pose a risk to food and forage crop \r\nand livestock production (high confidence) (Section  14.5.4). Ocean \r\nwarming and MHWs will continue to disrupt commercial capture \r\nfisheries through species redistribution and changes to yield (high \r\nconfidence), and warming waters and OA will increasingly impact \r\naquaculture production (high confidence) (Section 14.5.4). Interactions "


id: 48ff84d90c2b2fb963185a82a7dfb67f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Major risks to terrestrial ecosystems across North America, such as \r\nsemiarid landscapes, rangelands, boreal and temperate forests, and \r\nArctic tundra, include significant ecosystem transformations and shifts \r\nin species abundances and ranges, and major vegetation types (e.g., \r\ntransitions from forests to grasslands), with cascading implications \r\nfor regional biodiversity (very high confidence). Warming increases \r\nthe risk of permafrost thaw with propagating impacts on species \r\nand communities in the Canadian and US Arctic (high confidence) \r\n(CCP6). 6Forest disturbances, including wildfire, drought, insects \r\nand pathogens, are expected to increase with warming, acting \r\nsynergistically to raise the prevalence of tree mortality and ecosystem \r\ntransformation (medium confidence) (Section 14.5.1). These changes "


id: 533773d3a5d89ccde147f605b33644f3
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"between competing aspects of human security (e.g., food, energy \r\nand water) will be exacerbated by climate change (high confidence) \r\n(Sections 14.5.3, 14.5.4, 14.5.8)."


id: 2b14ee669a6830095c962cbcc7b326ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Climate change and extreme events are expected to increase risks \r\nto the North American economy via infrastructure damage and \r\ndeterioration (high confidence), disruption to operations, unsafe \r\nconditions for workers (medium confidence) and interruptions to \r\ninternational and inter-regional supply chains (medium confidence) \r\n(Section  14.5.8; see Box  14.5). These climatic impacts will have \r\ncascading implications for local livelihoods, sustainable economic \r\ndevelopment pathways and regional connectivity, and will reinforce \r\npre-existing social inequities (medium confidence). Infrastructure \r\ndamage will also disrupt economic activities, including manufacturing, \r\ntourism, fisheries, natural resource extraction and energy production \r\n(high confidence) (Section 14.5.8)."


id: d2ce2ee86cd50a66230c5daec8d0cf6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"In major North American cities and settlements, vulnerability to climate \r\nchange has increased and is projected to continue to rise (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section 14.5.5). Concentrated populations with unequal \r\nadaptive capacities, exposure of valuable assets, ageing infrastructure, \r\nand differing degrees of institutional capacity and effectiveness \r\nwill underpin climate hazards (Section  14.5.5). Coastal, riverine and \r\nurban flooding displacing communities and coastal ecosystems \r\n(Section 14.5.5.2) will become a dominant risk to urban centres (high \r\nconfidence) and will cause disruptions to transportation and trade \r\ninfrastructure (Section  14.5.8). Large wildfires endangering lives, \r\nlivelihoods, property and key infrastructure, and economic activities \r\nwill contribute to compromised air quality and municipal water \r\ncontamination (Section 14.5.6; see Box 14.2)."


id: d7d0bf4ffb253ffba99196ebd5256bda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"The archaeology and history of Indigenous Peoples and Euroamerican farmers show that climate variability can have severe impacts on \r\nlivelihoods, food security and personal safety. Traditional societies developed numerous methods to cope with variability but have always \r\nexpanded to the limits of what those adaptations permit. Current knowledge and technology can buffer societies from many negative effects \r\nof climate change already experienced but will be severely challenged by the novel conditions we are now creating."


id: 721f704968ab072b6d173a90b4186ae9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"People came into North America more than 15,000  years ago and have experienced both massive and minor \r\nshifts in climate ever since. At the end of the last very cold phase of the most recent Ice Age, about 11,500 years \r\nago, temperatures rose extremely rapidly--as much as 10degC (18degF) in a decade in some regions. This undoubtedly \r\ncontributed to the extinction of large mammals like mammoths and mastodons that people hunted alongside \r\nmany other resources (see Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1). There were so few people on the land, though, \r\nand other resources were so abundant, that the long-standing human means of coping with climate variability--\r\nswitching foods and moving on--were sufficient."


id: cce8ac2585fd6bad3d7a002a13211c3e
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"Following the end of the Ice Age, populations across North America grew for the next few thousand years, at a \r\nrate that increased once people began to domesticate corn (maize), beans and squash (the 'three sisters') as well \r\nas other crops. However, more people meant less mobility, and farmers traditionally are also more invested in their \r\nfields and remaining in place than foragers are to hunting grounds. Other means of coping with vulnerability to \r\nfood shortage caused by climate variability included some continued hunting and gathering of wild resources, \r\nplanting fields in multiple locations and with different crops, storage in good years, and exchange with neighbours \r\nand neighbouring groups."


id: 72d7e88a88fb20f985b72a081778298d
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"These societies were not immune to climate hazards despite their greater population and more formal organisation. \r\nArchaeological evidence strongly suggests that drought, or growing conditions that were too hot or cold, \r\ncontributed to the decline of groups ranging from Classic-period Maya states in Mesoamerica, to the somewhat less \r\nhierarchical societies of Chaco in the southwest USA and Cahokia in the Midwest USA (Figure FAQ14.2.1). The usual \r\npattern seems to be that climatic variability compounded social and environmental problems that were already \r\nchallenging these societies."


id: cdec1a94dda39c05440129697e90c5d3
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"If societies in North America prior to the Euroamerican colonisation were vulnerable to climate variability, surely \r\nwere not the more recent and technologically advanced societies of North America at lower risk? The 20th century \r\nDust Bowl created in the US and Canadian prairies suggests otherwise. Severe drought conditions throughout \r\nthe 1930s--which, to make matters worse, peaked during the Great Depression--did not cause either the USA \r\nor Canada to collapse. But both countries suffered massive economic losses, regional loss of topsoil and regional \r\nhuman strife (including loss of crops, income and farms) leading to migration. Yet anthropogenic global climate \r\nchange was of little or no consequence in the 1930s. While farming practices made climate stress worse, the climate \r\nvariability itself was either completely, or mostly, within the envelope of historical climate variability that earlier \r\nhuman societies had experienced."


id: b05bb1abd4ec318df2ef72f202e91059
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Indigenous Peoples and Euroamerican farmers and ranchers have a long history of mostly successful adaptation \r\nto changing weather patterns. The wisdom held by Indigenous Peoples deep knowledge of how plants, animals \r\nand atmospheric conditions provide early warning signals of approaching weather shifts, and stories about how \r\npast communities have tried to cope with climate-related resource shortfalls. Long-standing community-level \r\nmanagement of resources also helps prevent shortfalls, and institutions such as kin groups, church groups, clubs and \r\nlocal governments (which exist in communities of both Euroamericans and Indigenous Peoples, in different forms) \r\ncan be powerful aids in ameliorating shortfalls and resolving conflict."


id: 83680b829e82b79324fa6e6e2be1a0a9
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content:
"Large scale droughts in the 12th and 13th \r\ncenturies CE, and cooling temperatures in the \r\n13th century, contributed to farmers leaving the \r\nnorthern Pueblo area in the 13th century."


id: 5be10e9a17a0aa53d3fbc1d0a08a90d1
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content:
"Figure FAQ14.2.1 |  Examples of areas where past climate variability has contributed to crises. Climatic variability is most likely to lead to crisis when \r\nit is accompanied by social, demographic and political conditions or environmental mismanagement that compound climatic impacts on societies."


id: 652938841e4e3f1cc5f996f8a31c255e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"The North American Arctic is warming at nearly three times the global average, creating a cascading web of local, regional and global impacts \r\nwithin and beyond polar regions. Changes in the Arctic not only effect global ocean circulation and climate regulation, but also facilitate new \r\nArctic transportation routes and support transboundary resources with geopolitical, environmental and cultural implications as conditions \r\nchange."


id: cde3834e0823bab00b53a16b30dc5187
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Although the region is remote, changes in the Arctic impact the rest of the world. The Arctic serves as a regulator \r\nof global climate and other ecological processes through large-scale patterns related to air and ocean circulation. \r\nThese vitally important processes are nearing points beyond which rapid and irreversible (on the scale of multiple \r\nhuman generations) changes are possible. The magnitude of cascading changes over the next two centuries includes \r\nregional warming and temperature extremes, permafrost declines and sea ice loss beyond that experienced in \r\nhuman existence. This includes macro-scale risks related to SLR from the melting of glaciers and thermal expansion \r\nof oceans. Changes in the Arctic are more pronounced than elsewhere and portend climate-change impacts in other \r\nareas of the globe."


id: eb719e23a6bc63bb7a08659a2262fc90
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"Adaptation in the Arctic is underway and lessons learned on what works and what is effective and feasible to \r\nimplement can provide global insights. Successful adaptation in the North American Arctic region has been \r\nattributed, in part, to the explicit and meaningful inclusion of IK and Indigenous self-determination, and diverse \r\nperspectives in decision-making processes, strong local leadership, co-management approaches, technological \r\ninvestment in integrated climate modelling and projections, and multilateral cooperation."


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content:
"collaborations that include utility managers and the private sector \r\n(Funfgeld, 2015; Moser et al., 2017)."


id: 5f98d64a0fbe5accd3c7ca0b46b122e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Climate adaptation efforts have increased across all North American \r\nregions and sectors (high confidence). Support for, and implementation \r\nof, adaptation policies, plans and measures have not been equal across \r\nthe public and private sectors, regions or varying levels of governance \r\n(high confidence) (Table  14.7). To date, reactive (coping-based) and \r\nincremental adaptations have helped North Americans avoid greater \r\ndamages from observed climate impacts (medium confidence). There \r\nis increasing agreement that worsening impacts and expanding risk \r\nconditions may exceed current adaptation capacities by mid-century \r\nunder high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) (medium confidence)."


id: d12867a89d13fa13acab8ea5df40eff0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"The majority of local jurisdictions in North America have undertaken \r\nsome level of adaptation. These efforts largely have focused on planning \r\nand less on implementation (high confidence). Some subnational \r\ngovernments, namely states and provinces, have engaged in advanced \r\nadaptation planning efforts (high confidence). Indigenous Peoples in \r\nNorth America have undertaken substantial activities (Section  14.4; \r\nsee Box 14.1)."


id: 34fae598ea51ee425080ec904b260efb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Implementation of adaptation initiatives and specific actions in US \r\ncities has increased in the approximately 5 years between the 3rd US \r\nNational Climate Assessment (NCA3) (Melillo et al., 2014) and the 4th \r\nAssessment (NCA4), and adaptation responses have been observed \r\nwidely (Lempert et al., 2018). ICLEI-USA provides numerous resources \r\nfor adaptation planning and implementation for cities, Indigenous \r\nPeoples and Regional Governments11. The Georgetown Center for \r\nClimate maintains a comprehensive resource for tracking adaptation \r\nprogress for States12. As of 2021, 18 US states have completed \r\nclimate adaptation plans, and six states have plans underway as of "


id: 58fe2e88b72b54ae67be4dd911c08404
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"Many cities across North America have undertaken adaptation \r\nplanning (Section  14.5; Hughes, 2015; Reich et  al., 2016; Moser \r\net  al., 2017; Auditors General, 2018; McMillan et  al., 2019) with \r\nsome financing adaptation implementation, for example, in the case \r\nof SLR (see Box  14.4). Adaptation actions commonly implemented \r\nin cities include climate-informed building codes, enacting energy \r\nconservation measures, modifying zoning and increasing green \r\ninfrastructure (Section  14.5.5.3; see Box  14.7; Binder et  al., 2015; \r\nMaxwell et  al., 2018a; Moss et  al., 2019; Brown et  al., 2021). The \r\nmajority of cities have formed practitioner networks to share \r\ninformation (ICLEI Canada, 2016; Vogel et  al., 2016; C40 Cities, \r\n2018) and supporting learning and collaboration through regional "


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"the time of this report (Georgetown Climate Center, 2021). California, \r\nin particular, has adopted sustained climate assessment to allow for \r\nmore rapid iterations on adaptation planning (Bedsworth et al., 2018; \r\nMiao, 2019). Across all US states, however, adaptation activities do not \r\nhave readily accessible budgets, such that levels of funding cannot be \r\nassessed directly (Gilmore and St. Clair, 2018)."


id: 53da831137c518c96b45a5637ab8b102
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"of co-benefits between climate-change adaptation and mitigation \r\n(Government of Canada, 2021b)."


id: b2d2098a16fe29b22fb3c04ce7b46712
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"The federal government of each North American country has developed \r\npolicies and actions that promote climate adaptation (Figure 14.12). \r\nRecognising the cultural, economic and social networks that span \r\nNorth America, the federal governments have also committed to \r\nengagement on adaptation and resilience across borders and through \r\ncooperation on domestic adaptation efforts (The White House, 2016). \r\nEach country also outlines their respective adaptation efforts through \r\nsubmissions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, \r\nincluding their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the \r\nParis Agreement. The federal governments also support adaptation \r\nefforts in other countries through international climate negotiations \r\nas well as related agreements, such as the Sendai Framework for \r\nDisaster Risk Reduction and efforts to support the achievement of the \r\nSustainable Development Goals (SDGs)."


id: 38b9fc8be4d037575bfe7c9c79b2a674
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Mexico's 2020 update to its first NDC communicated extensive \r\nadaptation efforts (Government of Mexico, 2020). The measures \r\noutlined in this document highlight the importance of co-benefits for \r\nadaptation efforts as they relate to the SDGs and to support mitigation \r\ncommitments. Ecosystem-based solutions and NbS (see Box 14.7) are \r\nthe basis for much of the synergies between adaptation and mitigation \r\nefforts. These plans are supported by domestic legislation through the \r\nGeneral Law on Climate Change, which includes the Climate Change \r\nAdaptation Process (CCAP). The CCAP provides a holistic systems \r\napproach for identifying instruments and institutional arrangements \r\nfor adaptation implementation (Semarnat and INECC, 2015; INECC and \r\nSemarnat, 2018). This approach includes guidance for planning (e.g., \r\nthe Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy, the Special Climate Change \r\nProgram 2014-2018) and formalises its adaptation commitments to \r\nthe Paris Agreement."


id: c42cd3e176fe05e4e3f85cdfccecf234
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"The private sector comprises a diverse set of actors who influence, \r\ninteract with and support adaptation efforts, generally through shared \r\ngovernance with the public sector. The weight of evidence points to the \r\nbenefits of these collaborations and the importance of voluntary code\u0002making and self-regulation (Section  17.4.2.1.6). In North America, \r\nNGOs and professional organisations have been important agents of \r\nchange in the adaptation field (Bennett and Grannis, 2017; Stults and \r\nMeerow, 2017). Efforts have included supporting community-based \r\nresilience, network building, Internet-based guidance and resources, \r\ncase studies, workshops and other services to support adaptation \r\naction (e.g., vulnerability assessments, scenario-based planning)."


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"Market and financial mechanisms have provided important buffering \r\ncapacity against climate shocks in North America. Insurance products \r\nare being developed to meet emerging climate risks, especially related \r\nto availability and pricing of flood insurance in Canada (Thistlethwaite, \r\n2017; Davies, 2020) and the USA (Kousky et al., 2021). Some existing \r\nUS flood insurance products provided through joint public and private \r\narrangements has led to rebuilding in flood-prone locations (Zellmer \r\nand Klein, 2016). The price of these products may limit their uptake in \r\nlow-income neighbourhoods (Cannon et al., 2020)."


id: 6712b9c9f5e5c4c9f8c922fbb3b7f7b9
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"In Canada, the Federal Adaptation Policy Framework (Government \r\nof Canada, 2011) guides domestic action to develop adaptation \r\nknowledge, build adaptive capacity, and mainstream adaptation \r\ninto federal policy, in support of the Pan-Canadian Framework on \r\nClean Growth and Climate Change (Government of Canada, 2016), \r\nwhich included specific adaptation measures and investments to \r\nbuild resilience. In August 2021, the government initiated a National \r\nAdaptation Strategy with development anticipated through 2022. \r\nAdditionally, the government facilitates efforts and funds research, \r\ncapacity building and information sharing across sectors and among \r\ngovernment departments (Government of Canada, 2021a). The \r\nCanadian Centre for Climate Services provides access to climate \r\ndata, tools and information13. In Canada's revised NDC, near-term \r\ncommitments to protecting land and oceans, and efforts related to \r\nsustainable and resilient energy systems, are highlighted as examples "


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"Professional organisations have participated in the development and \r\nadoption of measures to integrate climate resilience into the built \r\nenvironment. This includes new designs, guidelines, codes, standards \r\nand specifications, in addition to infrastructure inventories that \r\nincorporate evaluation of vulnerabilities and identification of priority \r\nat-risk areas (Amec Foster Wheeler and Credit Valley Conservation, \r\n2017; ASCE, 2018a). These efforts are supported by provincial/state and \r\nfederal initiatives (e.g., Canada's Climate Lens (Infrastructure Canada, \r\n2018), and California's Climate-Safe Infrastructure Working Group "


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"(Climate-Safe Infrastructure Working Group, 2018)). Infrastructure \r\nCanada has undertaken Canada-wide initiatives to improve \r\ninfrastructure resilience to climate change14. The Standards Council of \r\nCanada (SCC) established the Northern Infrastructure Standardization \r\nInitiative15 engaging stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples, to \r\ndevelop standards specific for addressing climate-change impacts \r\non northern infrastructure design, planning and management, and \r\ncommunity development (Standards Council of Canada, 2020)."


id: aec852e3f51c0e39647cac96093ca7fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"et al., 2021). While it is challenging to catalogue adaptation activities, \r\nas many are not published or are not necessarily undertaken with \r\nclimate adaptation as the primary rationale (Section 1.3.2.2), most of \r\nthe activities identified by sector in this chapter have been primarily \r\nincremental adaptation measures (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nMany actions are extensions of existing practices for managing \r\nclimate variability and there is broad agreement that worsening future \r\nconditions will exceed the capacity of many of these efforts (Kates \r\net al., 2012; Termeer et al., 2017; Fazey et al., 2018; Fedele et al., 2019; \r\nShi and Moser, 2021)."


id: ee848e776fa601014930aec0b95457f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Professional organisations in the USA (e.g., National Medical Association, \r\nAmerican Institute of Architects, Association of Metropolitan Water \r\nAgencies, Water Utility Climate Alliance, American Society of Adaptation \r\nProfessionals) have engaged with their members particularly through \r\ntraining about urban adaptation (Stults and Meerow, 2017). The \r\nprivate sector and citizens (Klein et al., 2018) have been involved in the \r\nmanagement of increasing flood risk, such as the adoption of property\u0002level flood protection (Thistlethwaite and Henstra, 2018; Valois et al., \r\n2019), implementing FireSmart Canada and Firewise USA guidance (see \r\nBox 14.2). In Canada, Engineers Canada developed the PIEVC Protocol \r\nto provide guidance for professionals in engineering and geoscience16."


id: 5a947a8ca8663c5746ddbf2e32af09a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Progress in adaptation planning and implementation between regions \r\nin North America is uneven (Table 14.6; see Box 14.7; Bierbaum et al., \r\n2013; Moser et al., 2017; Auditors General, 2018; INECC and Semarnat, \r\n2018; Shi and Moser, 2021). At the local level (cities) in the USA, \r\ncommitment of elected officials, financial resources and awareness \r\nof climate-change hazards and risks have been identified as driving \r\nthe variation in climate adaptation (Shi et  al., 2015). Adaptation \r\nprogrammes have come under budgetary and political pressures \r\nthat limit continuity of efforts (Moss et al., 2019). Implementation of \r\nadaptation has also faced challenges due to institutional arrangements, \r\nconstraints and gaps that prevent different levels of government, \r\nsocial organisations and academia to act in an integrated and timely \r\nway to consider biodiversity, agriculture and water systems (e.g., see \r\nBox 14.7; Bourne et al., 2016; Nalau et al., 2018)"


id: 3aad16eeb954d5de3c61eb061bc4b9f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Adaptive capacity in the face of climate risks and impacts has not \r\nbeen equal across North American communities (Sarkodie and \r\nStrezov, 2019). Lack of representation, health inequities and economic \r\nconstraints adversely affect the capacity to respond to change and \r\nfurther exacerbate marginalisation. For example, within many water \r\nbasins in Canada and the USA, planning processes are often hampered \r\nby conflicting interests, asymmetrical information and differential \r\npower (ICLEI Canada, 2016; Nordgren et al., 2016; Woodruff and Stults, \r\n2016)."


id: 4647041ad634a0b14eed2dcfffb78f58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"The absence of evidence about the current effectiveness of proposed \r\nadaptation actions to guide future actions and investments presents \r\na serious risk to North America, especially at higher GWLs (medium \r\nconfidence). Evaluating the limits to adaptation and the effectiveness \r\nof adaptation actions is hindered by a lack of monitoring and evaluation \r\n(Auditors General, 2018; Dilling et al., 2019; Berrang-Ford et al., 2021). \r\nIncremental, passive adaptations are often characterised by soft limits \r\ndue to differing access to resources and by perceptions and tolerance \r\nof risk (Moser, 2010; Dow et  al., 2013). At current warming levels, \r\nsocial-ecological systems have been reaching limits to adaptation in \r\nregions with high exposure and high sensitivity (medium confidence). \r\nHowever, the implications for adaptation are unclear as soft \r\nadaptation limits are mutable and change with evolving knowledge, "


id: 1d8dfddc74a7c05c2d25fedeb21e34ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Adaptation actions to moderate the effects of climate impacts are well \r\ndocumented in North America and have buffered much of the past and \r\ncurrently observed climate impacts (e.g., Lempert et al., 2018; Lemmen "


id: 3455dd71486035e668db38a995fd643f
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content:
"Table 14.6 |  Adaptation trends and progress across sectors. Adaptation progress consists of assessment (A), planning (P), implementation of strategies (I) and evaluation of \r\nefficacy (E)."


id: 92b2443af5e3338ce6fc0418ecbac2eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"values, interests and perspectives involved in decision making (Adger \r\net al., 2009; Moser et al., 2017). Hard limits have been identified for \r\nsome natural systems, such as species extinctions (Sections 14.5.2.1, \r\n14.5.1.3; Table 14.2)."


id: d7eb29338c43bbf6e314b9dfbe9cc7ae
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"adaptation goals (Moss et  al., 2019; Kenney et  al., 2020); however, \r\nthese frameworks have not sufficiently incorporated monitoring and \r\nevaluation into adaptation plans (Lempert et al., 2018; Kenney et al., \r\n2020). Tools and services to facilitate risk assessment and action \r\nplanning have been made available through federal government \r\nclimate service efforts, and guidance for their use has been developed \r\n(Vano et al., 2018); however, these products have been characterised \r\nas insufficiently developed to allow all adaptation practitioners to use \r\nthese services (Meerow and Mitchell, 2017)."


id: 6c4bfbab3f88c06fd363fa498d323a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Throughout North America, co-development (or co-production) of adap\u0002tation efforts among stakeholders who share common climate vulner\u0002abilities or risk levels (e.g., individuals, groups, communities, businesses \r\nor institutions) has been a core attribute of adaptation planning (Mees \r\net al., 2016) and ranges across many sectors (e.g., Sections 14.5.2.2, \r\n14.5.3.3, 14.5.4.3). Participatory efforts and robust decision making \r\nhave also been observed; some integrated watershed planning proc\u0002esses have high degrees of sustained stakeholder involvement (Sec\u0002tion 14.5.3.3; FAQ 14.4; Harris-Lovett et al., 2015; Cantu, 2016)."


id: 35adb780825437f45ecb0e3da1d1093e
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content:
"14.7.2.2 Adaptation Through Participatory and Robust Decision \r\nMaking, Indicators and Sustained Assessments"


id: fb557ffc0dc736349437569a39e4e229
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Climate change and its projected impacts pose a substantial risk to North \r\nAmerica as a region as well as to sectors, communities and individuals \r\n(Section 14.6.2). Incorporating different values and knowledge systems, \r\nconsideration of equity and justice as core objectives and addressing \r\nunderlying vulnerabilities are principles that can guide transformational \r\nadaptation and resilience (medium confidence)."


id: d65133ea18e9edfb1c33e94e5b1ebc94
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"In response to some of the challenges presented in Section 14.7.2.1, \r\nsubstantial progress has been made in the North American context on \r\nthe development of climate services, indicators, sustained assessments, \r\nand participatory and stakeholder-driven robust decision making \r\n(medium confidence) (Fazey et  al., 2018; Fedele et  al., 2019; Moss \r\net al., 2019; Boon et al., 2021; Werners et al., 2021)."


id: 25591b8ebf766e420bb446a1d9b47e08
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Approaches that advance adaptation within the existing contexts \r\n(finances, institutions and processes) have been increasingly promoted \r\nby governments to mainstream climate risk into all considerations \r\n(Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014; Van der Brugge and Roosjen, 2015; \r\nBoon et  al., 2021; Shi and Moser, 2021). Policies and programmes \r\nthat build upon existing approaches that have inherent climate \r\nresilience including Indigenous knowledge-based land and resource \r\nmanagement (Section  14.5.4), co-management of agriculture and \r\nfreshwater resources (Section  14.5.3), NbS (see Box  14.7), links \r\nbetween health and equity, and ecosystem-based management \r\n(Sections  14.5.2-14.5.4) have advanced sustainable and equitable \r\nclimate resilience. Implementing the recommendations in the ASCE \r\ncommittee's report on adaptation to a changing climate (2018a) "


id: 8bd728bdca9aad827ab43fc0115562c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Decision making related to adaptation policies, plans and projects has \r\nbecome more formalised, emphasising participatory governance and \r\nco-production of knowledge. Canada has improved capacity with its \r\nCanadian Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience \r\nResults and the recent National Adaptation Plan (Section  14.7.1.5), \r\nwith the development of a series of indicators to measure progress \r\non adaptation (EPCCAR, 2018; Government of Canada, 2021a). In the \r\nUSA, indicators have been developed to communicate climate risks \r\nand guide adaptation efforts from federal (Kenney et al., 2020) to more \r\nregional initiatives (Kenney and Gerst, 2021). These climate indicators \r\nhave been used to support user-driven assessments and to articulate "


id: d5d5fd3ce8c1d8c8aaa84874fd20313f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Table 14.7 |  Simplified example for transitioning from incremental to transformative adaptation approaches to support future climate-resilient sustainable development"


id: a2f8796f0e6bf0da02427f60756be97e
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"This table is modified from the IPCC SR1.5 adaptation feasibility assessment for Land and Ecosystem Transitions (IPCC, 2018). Feasibility dimensions (can be barriers and/or \r\nenablers) are as follows: Economic (EC), Technological (TEC), Institutional (INST), Sociocultural (SOC), Environmental/Ecological (ENV) or Geophysical (GEO) (Chapter 16)."


id: 5fa51b8417a355dceb5c9d3980a8fe3a
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"and Canada's Infrastructure and Buildings Working Group report has \r\nbeen identified as an opportunity to improve social equity by ensuring \r\nthe resilience of infrastructure and the services it provides, through \r\nadoption of standards and good asset management practices (Amec \r\nFoster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure, 2017; ASCE, 2018a)."


id: 28cb4a602e659a4937b73e6691a3fc07
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"perspectives in adaptation governance (Cochran et al., 2013; Plummer, \r\n2013; Allison and Bassett, 2015; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018). \r\nSustained engagement through iterative knowledge development, \r\nlearning and negotiation has been identified as core for addressing \r\nclimate risks (Kates et al., 2012; Seijger et al., 2014). Interdisciplinary \r\nand inclusive adaptation programmes that embrace and plan for conflict \r\nand resolution, and address inequalities, have been part of broadening \r\nthe opportunities for engagement (Cantu, 2016; Termeer et al., 2017; \r\nParlee and Wiber, 2018; Sterner et al., 2019; Haasnoot et al., 2020)."


id: c138a75381e6fcabf4a8624a7265f4f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Differing values, perspectives, interests and needs of relevant actors \r\n(Dittrich et  al., 2016) through participatory processes, such as co\u0002production of knowledge (Meadow et  al., 2015; Wall et  al., 2017), \r\nhave been incorporated through the Resilience Dialogues21 and the \r\ndevelopment of guidance on climate scenarios (Chaumont, 2014). \r\nFraming of adaptation goals strongly determines beneficiaries of \r\nresultant policies and underscores the importance of a plurality of "


id: 382a51635ec74b6c924de9ad45d717c5
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content:
"Strategies have been emerging to facilitate progress by including specific \r\nguidance on tools for financing and funding climate-change adaptation \r\ninfrastructure (Berry and Danielson, 2015; Chen et  al., 2016; Zerbe, "


id: 1d51d66f1a38883c81bf84a782135f9f
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"interdependencies between cities and surrounding areas--increases \r\nthe potential that small and medium cities can build adaptive capacity \r\nat a pace that is commensurate with present and future risks (Moss \r\net al., 2019; Vodden and Cunsolo, 2021). This coordination also creates \r\ngreater opportunity for translation of knowledge into practice and \r\nassessing knowledge in the context that it is to be applied to improve \r\ndecision making across scales (Enquist et al., 2017; Moss et al., 2019)."


id: 773117d64bcc12ddbb85e8bf9ca92d73
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content:
"2019). This includes facilitating transitions between incremental and \r\ntransformational efforts to facilitate CRD (Figure 14.12; Chapter 18)."


id: f460072c39af96ef4f73f5d3dd34e9f2
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"The extent to which resilient infrastructure contributes to social \r\njustice and equity has also been taken into consideration (Climate\u0002Safe Infrastructure Working Group, 2018; Doorn, 2019). Proactive \r\nactions focused on small towns and rural areas--including the "


id: 183ac453c11372a00809918fa97aa2c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are 'actions to protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems, that address \r\nsocietal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits' (IUCN, 2016). Such \r\nNbS in the context of climate change, or nature-based adaptation see (Box 1.3), can jointly address multiple social-ecological issues \r\nrelated to climate-change hazards, impacts, adaptation and mitigation (Figure Box 14.7.1; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2). \r\nSuccessful nature-based adaptation draws from existing adaptation approaches (Borsje et al., 2011; Temmerman et al., 2013; Law et al., \r\n2018; Reguero et al., 2018; Buotte et al., 2019) and is applied across ecological and human systems (high confidence) (Table Box 14.7.1; \r\nFigure Box 14.7.1)."


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"up to 176 billion USD, of which 50 billion USD could be avoided through implementation of nature-based measures including wetland \r\nand oyster reef restoration and other green infrastructure (see Box 14.4; Section 14.5.2; EPA, 2015b; Reguero et al., 2018)."


id: 34f76f551ad0265a40f5ed38172197f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"FAQ 14.4 | What are some effective strategies for adapting to climate change that have been implemented a"


id: 2f5b1260299ec8281448784000fc986e
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content:
"Climate adaptation is happening across North America. These efforts are differential across sectors, scale and scope. Without more integrative \r\nand equitable approaches across broad scales, known as transformational adaptation, the continent may face limits to the future effectiveness \r\nof adaptation actions."


id: 2075d70b9a11182e42857834c85783ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Across North America, progress in introducing climate adaptation is steady, but incremental. Adaptation is typically \r\nlimited to planning, while implementation is often hindered by 'soft' limits, such as access to financial resources, \r\ndisparate access to information and decision-making tools, the existence of antiquated policies and management \r\nframeworks, lack of incentives and highly variable political perceptions of the urgency of climate change."


id: c5067de7323f7e8882b696ccc49f78f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Cities and other state and local entities are taking the lead in adaptation efforts, particularly in terms of mainstreaming \r\nthe use of many approaches to adaptation. These approaches include a suite of efforts ranging from assessment of \r\nimpacts and vulnerability (relative to individuals, communities, jurisdictions, economic sectors, natural resources, \r\netc.), planning processes, implementation of identified strategies and evaluation of the effectiveness of these \r\nstrategies. Other institutions (e.g., NGOs, professional societies, private engineering and architecture businesses) \r\nalso are making significant progress in the adaptation arena, particularly at local to regional levels."


id: 93b5700f8eedf333f8693786696e9c9b
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"The marine and coastal fisheries sector also has shown considerable progress in climate adaptation planning, \r\nparticularly in terms of assessing impacts and vulnerability of fisheries. Along the Pacific Northwest coast of the \r\nUSA and Alaska, seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts of ocean conditions exacerbated by warming (e.g., O2, pH, "


id: 98708ea711020c51e85f98a93349bcf6
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content:
"temperature, sea ice extent) already have informed fisheries and aquaculture management. Similarly, forecasts and \r\nwarnings have reduced human exposure to the increased risk of toxins from HABs in the Gulf of Mexico, the Great \r\nLakes, California, Florida, Texas and the Gulf of Maine."


id: ab5758c1921ffede52449da9434c5df
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"Professional organisations and insurance play an important part in mainstreaming climate adaptation. Government \r\nand private-sector initiatives can help address adaptation efforts through building-design guidelines and engineering \r\nstandards, as well as insurance tools that reflect the damages from climate impacts. Through the identification of \r\nclimate risks and proactive adaptation planning, the private sector can contribute to reducing risks throughout \r\nNorth America by securing operations, supply chains and markets."


id: 29b119a4bb7b89bcdcae1638ce9fd89c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Indigenous Peoples and rural community efforts across the continent show great potential for enhancing and \r\naccelerating adaptation efforts particularly when integrated with Western-based natural resource management \r\napproaches, such as cultural burning and other traditional practices that reduce the buildup of fuels, in addition \r\nto prescribed fire and mechanical thinning. In the agricultural sector, examples include planting and cultivation \r\nof culturally significant plants, as a traditional practice of soil conservation, in addition to food crops or in lieu of \r\nsynthetic or mechanical soil treatments."


id: 1b13ac263e71e19138a90ea3effc6f33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Future changes in climate (e.g., more intense heatwaves, catastrophic wildfire and post-fire erosion, SLR and forced \r\nrelocations) could exceed the current capacity of human and natural systems to successfully adapt (or 'hard limits'). \r\nThe inclusion and equitable contribution of Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in decision-making and \r\ngovernance processes--including recognition of the interdependencies between cities and surrounding areas--\r\nincreases the likelihood of building adaptive capacity at a pace that is commensurate with present and future \r\nclimate-change risks."


id: 29645222dcee03dc5bf86c5aa04cde41
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"Large-scale, equitable transformational adaptation likely will be required to respond to the growing rate and \r\nmagnitude of changes before crossing tipping points where hard limits exist, beyond which adaptation may no \r\nlonger be possible. Increasingly, there are calls for accelerating and scaling up adaptation efforts, in addition to \r\naligning policies and regulatory legislation at multiple levels of government. Improved processes for adaptation \r\ndecision making, governance and coordination, across sectors and jurisdictions, could enhance North America's \r\ncapacity to adapt to rapid climatic change. These actions include a focused societal shift, across governments, \r\ninstitutions and transnational boundaries, from primarily technological approaches to NbS that help foster changes \r\nin perception of risk and, ultimately, human behaviour."


id: 3bc97a0ff3d13d2fa1dd46d9b67af48e
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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6764
content:
"Zhao, S., et al., 2013: Adjoint estimation of ozone climate penalties. Geophys. \r\nRes. Lett., 40(20), 5559-5559, doi:10.1002/2013GL057623."


id: 790d290891fd446baa60b4c74bba22f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Mycoo, M., M.Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O.Warrick, 2022: \r\nSmall Islands. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to \r\nthe Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, \r\nE.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. \r\nCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2043-2121, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.017."


id: 4b5d069664fe58957b61267c4e24bcf1
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content:
"confidence). In mid-2016, a new ENSO event occurred which reduced \r\nliving coral cover by 75% in the Maldives {15.3.3.1.3, 15.3.4.8}."


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content:
"Freshwater systems on small islands are exposed to dynamic \r\nclimate impacts and are among the most threatened on the \r\nplanet. An 11-36% reduction is estimated in the volume of fresh \r\ngroundwater lens of the small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km2) of the \r\nMaldives due to SLR. The El Nino-related 2015-2016 drought in \r\nVanuatu led to reliance on small amounts of contaminated water \r\nleft at the bottom of household tanks. A Caribbean high-resolution \r\ndrought atlas spanning 1950-2016 indicates that the region-wide \r\n2013-2016 drought was the most severe event during the multi\u0002decadal period. In Puerto Rico, the island experienced 80 consecutive \r\nweeks of moderate drought, 48  weeks of severe drought and \r\n33 weeks of extreme drought conditions between 2014 and 2016. \r\nIncreasing trends in drought are apparent in the Caribbean although \r\ntrends in the western Pacific are not statistically significant {15.3.3.2, \r\n15.3.4.3}."


id: f3b6aa4f9c26fd96f4d3838ed5f2dc21
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35857
content:
"A sense of urgency is prevalent among small islands in the \r\ncombating of climate change and in adherence to the Paris \r\nAgreement to limit global warming to 1.5degC above pre-industrial \r\nlevels. Small islands are increasingly affected by increases in temperature, \r\nthe growing impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surges, droughts, \r\nchanging precipitation patterns, sea level rise (SLR), coral bleaching and \r\ninvasive species, all of which are already detectable across both natural \r\nand human systems (very high confidence1\r\n) {15.3.3.1, 15.3.3.2, 15.3.3.3, \r\n15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15.3.4.3, 15.3.4.4, 15.3.4.5, 15.3.4.7}."


id: 6150aa7fd9a35a1f22a5d019b2c4fc3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12881
content:
"The observed impacts of climate change differ between urban \r\nand rural contexts, island types and tropical and non-tropical \r\nislands (high confidence). Coastal cities and rural communities on \r\nsmall islands have been already impacted by SLR, heavy precipitation \r\nevents, tropical cyclones and storm surges. Climate change is also \r\naffecting settlements and infrastructure, health and well-being, water \r\nand food security, and economies and culture, especially through \r\ncompound events (high confidence). As of 2017, an estimated \r\n22 million people in the Caribbean live below 6-m elevation and 50% \r\nof the Pacific's population lives within 10 km of the coast along with \r\n>=50% of their infrastructure concentrated within 500 m of the coast \r\n{15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15.3.4.3, 15.3.4.4, 15.3.4.5, 15.3.4.7}. "


id: cdeb4fc6f19b50b2b4a185c204064ce7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
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vector_id: 29922
content:
"Small islands host significant levels of global terrestrial species \r\ndiversity and endemism. Due to the large range of insular\u0002related vulnerabilities, almost 50% of terrestrial species \r\npresently considered at risk of global extinction also occur on \r\nislands (high confidence). Despite encompassing approximately 2% \r\nof the Earth's terrestrial surface, oceanic and other high-endemicity \r\nislands are estimated to harbour substantial proportions of existing \r\nspecies including ~ 25% extant global flora, ~ 12% birds and ~10% \r\nmammals {15.3.3.3}."


id: 7f5f37fabbb13276225fedbd123d5be4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17595
content:
"TCs are severely impacting small islands (high confidence). The \r\nTC intensity and intensification rates at a global scale have increased \r\nin the past 40 years with intensity trends generally remaining positive. \r\nIntense TCs including Categories 4 and 5 TCs have threatened human \r\nlife and destroyed buildings and infrastructural assets in small islands \r\nin the Caribbean and the Pacific. Among 29 Caribbean islands, 22 were \r\naffected by at least one Category 4 or 5 TC in 2017. TC Maria in 2017 \r\ndestroyed nearly all of Dominica's infrastructure and losses amounted \r\nto over 225% of the annual GDP. Destruction from TC Winston in 2016 \r\nexceeded 20% of Fiji's current GDP. TC Pam devastated Vanuatu in \r\n2015 and caused losses and damages to the agricultural sector valued \r\nat USD 56.5 million (64.1% of GDP). Coast-focused tourism is already \r\nextremely impacted by more intense TCs. {15.2.1, 15.3.3.1, 15.3.3.3, \r\n15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15,3.4.4, 15.3.4.5}."


id: 304f88b2b82050852ebb630bb0815136
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
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vector_id: 5027
content:
"Projected climate and ocean-related changes will significantly \r\naffect marine and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem \r\nservices, which will in turn have cascading impacts across \r\nboth natural and human systems (high confidence). Changes in \r\nwave climate superimposed on SLR will significantly increase coastal \r\nflooding (high confidence) and low-coastal and reef island erosion \r\n(limited evidence, medium agreement). The frequency, extent, duration \r\nand consequences of coastal flooding will significantly increase from \r\n2050 (high confidence), unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able \r\nto naturally adapt to SLR through vertical growth (low confidence). \r\nThese changes are a major concern for small islands given that a high \r\npercentage of their population, infrastructure and economic assets \r\nare located in the low-elevation coastal zone of below 10-m elevation \r\n{15.3.3.1.1, 15.3.3.1.2, 15.3.3.1.3, 15.3.3.1.4}."


id: 9a3da1e95cf80b9c5cb16f4b8c4f9edf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 21786
content:
"Scientific evidence has confirmed that globally and in small \r\nislands tropical corals are presently at high risk (high confidence).\r\nSevere coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance, has \r\nbeen observed in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific \r\nand Indian oceans (high confidence). In the Pacific, median return \r\ntime between two severe bleaching events has diminished steadily \r\nsince 1980. The return time is now 6 years and often associated with \r\nthe warm phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (high "


id: 9dc7e2d64f99c3d215018aa3db1b5e25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22346
content:
"Projected changes in the wave climate superimposed on SLR \r\nwill rapidly increase flooding in small islands, despite highly \r\ncontrasting exposure profiles between ocean sub-regions (high \r\nconfidence). A 5-10-cm additional SLR (expected for ~2030-2050) \r\nwill double flooding frequency in much of the Indian Ocean and "


id: 510dbd89c2384bebcdb38da5f0990450
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 10201
content:
"confidence) {15.3.3.2, 15.3.3.3, 15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15.4.3, 15.3.4.4, \r\n15.3.4.5, 15.3.4.6, 15.3.4.7}."


id: e2414c74b95d58009309aa59b599a5e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
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vector_id: 33093
content:
"Tropical Pacific, while TCs will remain the main driver of (rarer) flooding \r\nin the Caribbean Sea and Southern Tropical Pacific. Some Pacific atoll \r\nislands will likely2\r\n undergo annual wave-driven flooding over their \r\nentire surface from the 2060s-2070s to 2090s under RCP8.5, although \r\nfuture reef growth may delay the onset of flooding (limited evidence, \r\nlow agreement) {15.3.3.1.1}."


id: e4ee1907b81e822fd7e245ad5ebb09d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33500
content:
"Modelling of both temperature and ocean acidification effects \r\nunder future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) suggest that \r\nsome small islands will experience severe coral bleaching on \r\nan annual basis before 2040 (medium confidence). Above 1.5degC, \r\nglobally inclusive of small islands, it is projected there will be further \r\nloss of 70-90% of reef-building corals, with 99% of corals being lost \r\nunder warming of 2degC or more above the pre-industrial period. Intact \r\ncoral reefs, seagrass meadows and mangroves provide a variety of \r\necosystem services that are important to island communities (high \r\nconfidence). These include provisioning services, regulating services, \r\ncultural services and those that support community resilience (high \r\nconfidence). If coastal ecosystems are degraded and lost, then the \r\nbenefits they provide cannot be easily replaced (medium confidence) \r\n{15.3.3.1.3, 15.3.3.1.4}."


id: 85f5fa0857f9f5c7981b9975b86307a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 18616
content:
"The vulnerability of communities in small islands, especially \r\nthose relying on coral reef systems for livelihoods, may exceed \r\nadaptation limits well before 2100 even for a low greenhouse \r\ngas emission pathway (high confidence). The impacts of climate \r\nchange on vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas present serious \r\nthreats to the ability of land to support human life and livelihood \r\n(high confidence). Climate-related migration is expected to increase, \r\nalthough the drivers and outcomes are highly context-specific and \r\ninsufficient evidence exists to estimate numbers of climate-related \r\nmigrants now and in the future (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n{15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.6, CCB7-1}."


id: b20cb39ff2c39e05c60348a51fba3015
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25511
content:
"The continued degradation and transformation of terrestrial \r\nand marine ecosystems of small islands due to human\u0002dominated will amplify the vulnerability of island peoples to \r\nthe impacts of climate change (high confidence). New studies \r\nhighlight large population reductions with an extinction risk of 100% \r\nfor endemic species within insular biodiversity hotspots including \r\nwithin the Caribbean, Pacific and Sundaland regions by 2100 for > \r\n3degC warming {15.3.3.3}. This is likely to decrease the provision of \r\nresources (e.g., potable water) to the millions of people living on small \r\nislands, resulting in impacts upon settlements and infrastructure, food \r\nand water security, health, economies, culture and migration (high "


id: bf1da74693e36a01a9a86108b3208e74
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 27622
content:
"For many small islands, adaptation actions are often incremental \r\nand do not match the scale of extreme or compounding events \r\n(high confidence). Much of the currently implemented adaptation \r\nmeasures remain small in scale (e.g., community-based adaptation \r\nprojects), sectoral in focus and do not address the needed structural \r\nand system-level adaptations to combat climate impacts and achieve \r\nlong-term sustainability of adaptation interventions. To address these \r\nshortcomings, enablers are being integrated into National Adaptation \r\nPlans and Disaster Risk Reduction Plans (high confidence) {15.6.3}."


id: bd6757e65330695870dd9f5b8da9941e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27363
content:
"Small islands are already reporting losses and damages \r\nparticularly from tropical cyclones and increases in SLR (high \r\nconfidence). Despite the loss of human life and economic damage,\r\nthe methods and mechanisms to assess climate-induced loss and \r\ndamage remain largely undeveloped for small islands. Further, there \r\nare no robust methodologies to infer attribution and such assessments \r\nare limited. A research gap on losses and damages includes how to \r\nassess the economic costs of losses and damages. Specific data on \r\nexperienced losses and damages across socioeconomic groups and \r\ndemographics are needed. Monitoring and tracking slow-onset events \r\nare equally important and require robust data {15.7, 15.8}."


id: a3356a2e79297fecae59389cd4bfdd4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23247
content:
"Although international climate finance has increased in magnitude, \r\nsmall islands face challenges in accessing adaptation finance to \r\ncope with slow- and rapid-onset events (high confidence). In the \r\nCaribbean, 38% of flows were concessional loans and 62% were grants, \r\nwhereas in the Atlantic and Indian oceans nearly 75% of the flows were \r\nin the form of concessional loans and 25% were grants. Solutions to \r\nthese barriers are being explored and some small islands have started \r\nadopting enablers such as insurance and microfinance at both the \r\nnational and local levels in responding to adaptation needs and to \r\nfacilitate resiliency building. COVID-19 has caused, however, economic \r\nshock in many small islands, which will limit adaptation, undermine the \r\nattainment of Sustainable Development Goals and slow down climate \r\nresilient development transitions {15.8.3}."


id: 8e36eba373b1d9582f5aa110bab4b1e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 19903
content:
"Some island communities are resilient with strong social \r\nsafety nets and social capital that support responses and \r\nactions already occurring, but there is limited information on \r\nthe effectiveness of the adaptation practices and the scale \r\nof action needed (high confidence). This is in part due to a need \r\nfor a better understanding of the limits to adaptation and of what \r\nconstitutes current resilience and/or successful adaptation in small \r\nisland contexts. Greater insights into which drivers weaken local and \r\nindigenous resilience, together with recognition of the sociopolitical \r\ncontexts within which communities operate, and the processes by \r\nwhich decisions are made, can assist in identifying opportunities at \r\nall scales to enhance climate adaptation and enable action towards \r\nclimate resilient development pathways (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) {15.6.1, 15.6.5, 15.7}."


id: b9554248c3509461a379cee322ec8dc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26701
content:
"The unavailability of up-to-date baseline data and contrasting \r\nscenarios/temperature levels continue to impair the generation \r\nof local-to-regional observed and projected impacts for small \r\nislands, especially those that are developing nations (high \r\nagreement). Climate model data based on the most recent suite \r\nof scenarios (RCPs and especially SSPs) are still not widely available \r\nto primary modelling communities in most small island developing \r\nnations (high agreement). Coastal sites of small islands are not well \r\nrepresented in global gridded population and elevation data sets, \r\nthereby making estimation of population exposure to SLR difficult. The \r\nlack of data continues to impede the development of robust impacts\u0002based modelling output (e.g., for terrestrial biodiversity). Downscaling \r\nis pivotal for small islands due to their high diversity, which makes \r\ngeneralisation invalid."


id: 3a399ee895cdfeb81f0fe6e76356ad16
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6529
content:
"In small islands, despite the existence of adaptation barriers \r\nseveral enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes \r\nand to build resilience (high confidence). These enablers include \r\nbetter governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and \r\ngender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased \r\nfinance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness \r\nprogrammes; increased access to climate information; adequately \r\ndownscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and \r\nlocal knowledge (IKLK) as well as integrating cultural resources into \r\ndecision-making (high confidence) {15.6.1 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5}."


id: a0ed10a6f66e1ce3a6ad1877fe8a8b64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22869
content:
"Small islands present the most urgent need for investment in \r\ncapacity building and adaptation strategies (high confidence) but \r\nface barriers and constraints which hinder the implementation \r\nof adaptation responses. Barriers and constraints arise from \r\ngovernance arrangements, financial resources and human resource \r\ncapacity. Additionally, institutional and legal systems are often \r\ninadequately prepared for managing adaptation strategies such \r\nas large-scale settlement relocation and other planned and/or \r\nautonomous responses to climate risks (high confidence). Adaptation \r\nstrategies are already being implemented on some small islands \r\nalthough barriers are encountered including inadequate up-to-date \r\nand locally relevant information, limited availability of finance and \r\ntechnology, lack of integration of IKLK in adaptation strategies, and \r\ninstitutional constraints (high confidence) {15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.6.3, \r\n15.6.4, 15.6.5}."


id: 52dc1bcc2579a88239c95930d94805a7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10491
content:
"This chapter examines the climate change impacts and projected \r\nrisks faced by small islands, including the detection and attribution \r\nof observed impacts, the losses and damages they experience, and \r\nthe enablers, limits and barriers to the implementation of adaptation \r\noptions applicable to them. The implications of climate change impacts \r\non the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the \r\nneed for more climate resilient development pathways based on a \r\nsystems transitions approach, and how both of these intersect with \r\nfuture potential responses are assessed within the context of small \r\nisland states."


id: 38636222d4bb85699fd6f9dec594d48f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6245
content:
"Scientific studies since AR5 confirm that global temperature will \r\ncontinue to increase even if greenhouse gas emissions are drastically \r\nreduced and will escalate the vulnerability, impacts and multiple \r\ninterrelated risks experienced by small islands (high confidence) (IPCC, \r\n2018). A greater sense of urgency in lowering global greenhouse gas \r\nemissions and a call for action now is resonating among small island \r\nstates."


id: 44e92b110847eb054ee56a6cea7c5a3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 8268
content:
"The small islands covered in this chapter are located within the \r\ntropics of the southern, northern, and western Pacific Ocean, the \r\ncentral, eastern and western Indian Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the \r\neastern Atlantic off the coast of West Africa, and in the temperate \r\nMediterranean Sea. In contrast to the Intergovernmental Panel on \r\nClimate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), non-sovereign \r\nisland states and territories dependent on continental states and \r\nislands of semi-autonomous, sub-national island jurisdictions are \r\nincluded in this chapter. Further, Small Island Developing States \r\n(SIDS) consisting of 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing \r\nstates which belong to the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) are \r\ncovered in this assessment. Islands in the polar and sub-polar regions, \r\nNorth Atlantic Ocean, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Black Sea and \r\nthe Arctic Ocean are not included."


id: df88d862a5bd096ae4c154d84a46878
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32668
content:
"Small islands share similarities such as geographical remoteness, \r\nisolation, narrow resource bases, heavy dependency on external trade, \r\nvulnerability to exogenous economic shocks, economic volatility, and \r\nlimited access to development finance. Many are biodiversity hotspots \r\nand experience a disproportionate impact of natural hazards associated \r\nwith climate change. They are also diverse in physical and biophysical \r\ncharacteristics, economic systems, political/governance systems, and \r\nexhibit social and cultural differences. Adaptation responses vary \r\namong small islands because such diversity requires place-specific and \r\nculturally specific adaptation responses."


id: e8af226245adf4db911dd878a4b3b37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34121
content:
"The chapter is structured in accordance with the overall format of \r\nthe AR6 Working Group II report (Figure 15.1). This section presents \r\npoints of departure from AR5. As shown in Figure 15.1, this is followed \r\nby an assessment of current and future risks that are expected to be \r\nexperienced by small islands (Sections 15.3 and 15.4), what measures \r\nhave been implemented (Section 15.5) and enablers, limits and barriers \r\nthat are being encountered (Section 15.6). Section 15.7 deals with the \r\nSDGs, climate resilient development pathways and potential future \r\nresponses. The chapter ends with an identification of research gaps \r\n(Section 15.8)."


id: 2701535fc3188a201ae9303427b6002b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3529
content:
"New knowledge of adaptation responses used in small islands has \r\ngrown significantly since AR5. Strategies include hard protection, land \r\nreclamation and permanent relocation, with improved appreciation for \r\nwhen each strategy is relevant (IPCC, 2019). Evidence of migration as \r\nan adaptation response to climate change remains limited (Roland and "


id: 6592f077b54529e305ea2b9476b170b0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13556
content:
"Points of departure from AR5 are highlighted in this section in relation \r\nto exposure, vulnerability, impacts and risks (Section  15.2.1), and \r\nadaptation options (Section 15.2.2)."


id: 9019443c2aeacd1d4373fdd4e95e6d28
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 20205
content:
"Figure 15.1 |  Schematic illustration of the interconnections of Chapter 15 themes, including on observed impacts and projected risks (Section 15.3) and on \r\nadaptation options and their implementation (Sections 15.5 and 15.6)."


id: 69f6a0be7ce4ecb2fbd31855a64f9901
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14269
content:
"Curtis, 2020). Understanding of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) \r\nhas improved considerably but there is medium agreement regarding \r\nits benefits (Doswald et  al., 2014; Nalau et  al., 2018a) and limited \r\nevidence and low agreement on its economic efficiency and long-term \r\neffectiveness (Renaud et al., 2016; Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: e782f7668b001e64e90a3a548c27b5dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33923
content:
"There is increased evidence of warming in the small islands, particularly \r\nin the latter half of the 20th century (high confidence). The diversity \r\nof metrics and timescales used across studies makes it impossible to \r\nprovide explicit comparisons; however, Table 15.1 provides a summary \r\nof observed changes."


id: efa2f8714fb97b6b0d006a0c3e755a43
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35203
content:
"Since the previous assessment, integration of IKLK into adaptation is \r\nrecognised as a major benefit in preparing and recovering from TCs \r\nand EbA (Narayan et  al., 2020). The roles of social capital, health\u0002related adaptation strategies and livelihood responses are more fully \r\nunderstood (Nalau et al., 2018b; Nunn and Kumar, 2018; Abram et al., \r\n2019; IPCC, 2019). Gender equity, climate justice, climate services, early \r\nwarning systems and disaster risk reduction (DRR) (Vaughan and Dessai, \r\n2014; Newth and Gunasekera, 2018), which were data gaps in AR5, \r\nhave received more treatment, especially in the context of small islands. \r\nStronger evidence confirms that education and awareness-raising \r\nenhance household and community adaptation (high confidence)."


id: d47f383533b070ff561d17988b6ab914
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 30956
content:
"Some phenomena have no demonstrable trends in a region because of \r\nlimited observed data, these include TC frequency in the northeastern \r\nPacific and Indian oceans (Walsh et  al., 2016); other phenomena \r\nare too variable to detect an overarching trend, including rainfall in \r\nregions where inter-annual and decadal variabilities such as the El \r\nNino-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal \r\nVariability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are dominant (Jones et al., \r\n2015; McGree et al., 2019)."


id: fc5b72efa72d469fea969ed5c33541be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Knowledge has improved on limits to adaptation, including \r\nprojected timeframes of limits for hard protection (high confidence) \r\nand EbA (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2019). There is also a better \r\nunderstanding that barriers and governance challenges vary by island \r\nand island groups (high confidence) and result in them having different \r\nadaptive capacities (IPCC, 2019). A major barrier to adaptation is \r\nlimited information on the feasibility, outcomes and sustainability of \r\nadaptation responses in small islands. Moreover, limited time series \r\ndata on monitoring and evaluation make evaluating the feasibility of \r\nadaptation responses difficult."


id: 24385c9644928940e7624606d7d228a1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"There are also marked regional variations in the rates of SLR (Merrifield \r\nand Maltrud, 2011; Palanisamy et al., 2012; Esteban et al., 2019) and \r\nrelative SLR (RSLR; that is, incorporating land movement). Various \r\nfactors, including interannual and decadal sea level variations \r\nassociated with low-frequency modulation of ENSO and the Pacific \r\nDecadal Oscillation (PDO) and vertical land motion contribute to both \r\nrelative sea level variations and related uncertainties. Increased distant\u0002source swell height from extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) also contributes \r\nto ESLs (Mentaschi et al., 2017; Vitousek et al., 2017). Together, these \r\nstressors increase ESLs and their impacts, including coastal erosion and \r\nmarine flooding and their impacts on both ecosystems and ecosystem \r\nservices and human activities (Section 15.3.3.1 and Table 15.3)."


id: b9d6dfec05e60d87e7227ccc5feac91a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Adaptation financing for small islands has increased since AR5 \r\nalthough leveraging finance is a constraint and remains complex \r\n(Robinson and Dornan, 2017). Informal microfinancing has grown and \r\nrisk transfer mechanisms are being explored although funding and \r\naccess to insurance schemes are limited (Handmer and Nalau, 2019; \r\nNunn and Kumar, 2019a; Petzold and Magnan, 2019). In small islands \r\nthe methods and mechanisms to assess climate-induced losses and \r\ndamages remain undeveloped (medium confidence) (Thomas and \r\nBenjamin, 2017; Handmer and Nalau, 2019)."


id: 4baf5dcac00c3df75e649c79cdd2c7d8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Like observed impacts, projected impacts include some high confidence \r\nassessments, which are distributed across a diversity of models, \r\ntimescales and metrics. Generalised trends, and specific projections \r\nwhen available, are provided in Table  15.2. However, actual values \r\nand spatial distribution of precipitation changes remain uncertain as \r\nthey are strongly model dependent (Paeth et al., 2017). Furthermore, \r\nthe current capabilities of climate models, to adequately represent \r\nvariability in climate drivers including ENSO, and the topography \r\nof small islands limit confidence in these future changes (Cai et al., \r\n2015a; Harter et al., 2015; Guilyardi et al., 2016)."


id: ceab086dba7fac6d4d6d6403d07aa0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Many small islands have experienced economic shock arising from \r\nCOVID-19 and have had to re-direct investment previously targeting \r\nsustainable development (Sheller, 2020). Adaptation will be affected \r\nby economic contraction and indebtedness. Framing adaptation within \r\nclimate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) that emphasize \r\nsystems transition and are implemented at scale may bolster small \r\nislands' resilience to multiple shocks such as COVID-19."


id: d54e3b12b7f6b7fa998336f44b160e67
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"Most of the research that has been conducted on exposure and \r\nvulnerability from climate change demonstrates that factors including \r\nthose that are geopolitical and political, environmental, socioeconomic \r\nand cultural together conspire to increase exposure and vulnerability \r\nof small islands (Box 15.1; Betzold, 2015; McCubbin et al., 2015; Duvat \r\net al., 2017b; Otto et al., 2017; Weir et al., 2017; Taupo et al., 2018; \r\nBarclay et al., 2019; Hay et al., 2019a; Ratter et al., 2019; Salmon et al., \r\n2019; Bordner et al., 2020; Douglass and Cooper, 2020; Duvat et al., \r\n2020a). Additional pressures on coastal and marine environments, \r\nincluding overexploitation of natural resources, may further exacerbate \r\npossible impacts in the future (Bell et al., 2013; Pinnegar et al., 2019; \r\nSiegel et al., 2019)."


id: fe35073a11927a9b794a77c39df291c7
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"Compared to larger landmasses, many climate change-driven impacts \r\nand risks are amplified for small islands. This is due largely to their \r\nboundedness (surrounded by ocean), their comparatively small land \r\nareas, and often their remoteness from more populated parts of the \r\nworld, which restricts the global connectivity of islands. This is true on \r\nall types of islands (Figure 15.2)."


id: f5275183aad8a96e71e1e8a9ed6cf4d0
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"Furthermore, these factors exacerbate climate change-induced \r\nproblems such as coastal flooding and erosion faced by small islands. \r\nThese impacts continue to worsen, putting small islands at increasingly \r\nhigher risk to the impacts of climate change (Box  15.1). There are \r\nmultiple stressors that affect the vulnerability of small islands to \r\nclimate change (McNamara et al., 2019)."


id: 5cc5e9457bed0e7f39917e66740206ac
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"The problems of increasing exposure and vulnerability are most clearly \r\nseen in atoll islands. For example, in the capital of Tuvalu, economic \r\nstressors, food-related stressors and overcrowding make the islands \r\nmuch more vulnerable to climate impacts including changing \r\nprecipitation patterns, ESLs, intense strong winds, warming sea \r\nsurface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification (McCubbin et al., \r\n2015). Small islands, in trying to address the problem of limited land \r\navailability, put in place practices that lead to increasing exposure \r\nfor island people. In Majuro, Marshall Islands (Ford, 2012), Tarawa, "


id: 8bfab37161629821f6388fc7cc41b6a7
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"For selected islands, each dot \r\nrepresents the corresponding \r\npercentage of the population \r\noccupying vulnerable land, \r\nthat may be exposed to \r\ncoastal inundation either by \r\npermanently falling below \r\nmean higher high water \r\n(MHHW), or temporarily falling \r\nbelow the local annual flood \r\nheight."


id: e4f7ff9c932cee3100ce5e9d924a88df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"impacts of which were exacerbated by human-induced changes to \r\nnatural processes in urban areas. This, for example, occurred in 2014 \r\n(TC Bejisa) in Reunion Island, France, in a harbour area favourable \r\nto water accumulation (Duvat et al., 2016); in 2015 (TC Pam) in Port \r\nVila, Vanuatu, where urbanisation and human-induced changes to the \r\nriver exacerbated flooding (Rey et al., 2017); and in 2017 (TC Irma) in \r\nSaint-Martin, Caribbean, where urbanisation had the same effect (Rey \r\net al., 2019). Successive tropical depressions generating heavy rains \r\nwere also involved in extensive flooding, for example, in 2012 in Fiji \r\n(Kuleshov et al., 2014) and in 2014 in the Solomon Islands (Ha'apio \r\net al., 2019)."


id: daf213a2710302754856c263958d934d
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content:
"then contributes to environmental degradation that increases the \r\nexposure and vulnerability of the communities living in these atolls \r\n(Duvat et al., 2017b)."


id: 10d3135efce51cfacd81c3b8435c1c3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Table 15.2 |  A small subset of projected changes in basic climate metric. Med: Mediterranean; n.c.: no change."


id: 2b017d9e461a102fb919f08f77c1f87d
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"flooding (Taherkhani et al., 2020). Simulations of SLR-induced flooding \r\nresulting from the combination of (a) direct marine flooding, (b) flow \r\nreversal in drainage networks caused by extreme tide levels and (c) the \r\nelevation of groundwater levels, at Honolulu, Hawaii, highlighted the \r\nmajor influence of this latter component (which is the most difficult to \r\nmanage), as well as the increase of the proportion of triple-mechanism \r\nflooding as sea level rises (Habel et al., 2020). Where coral reefs buffer \r\nflooding through wave attenuation, flooding will be further aggravated \r\nby reef decline over time (Section 15.3.3.1.3)."


id: a5fe362bb7a4be4db704a0679e907be9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"and Southern Tropical Pacific (Figure 15.3). Some Pacific atoll islands, \r\nwhich already experience major floods, will likely undergo annual \r\nwave-driven flooding over their entire surface from the 2060s-2070s \r\n(Storlazzi et al., 2018) to 2090s (Beetham et al., 2017) under RCP8.5, \r\nalthough future reef growth may delay the onset of flooding (limited \r\nevidence, low agreement) (key risk KR2 in Figure 15.5)."


id: 79b4e993b38289265c2dac7e122bb108
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Over the past three to five decades, shoreline changes were dominated \r\nby stability on reef islands and erosion on high islands; attribution of \r\nobserved erosion to SLR and other climate change-related drivers is \r\nchallenged by the complex interplay of multiple climatic, ecological \r\nand human drivers (high confidence). Since the 1950s-1970s, and \r\neven in regions exhibiting higher than global-averaged SLR rates, \r\natoll islands maintained their land area (high confidence). A literature \r\nreview including 709 Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean atoll islands \r\nshowed that 73.1% of these islands were stable in area, while, \r\nrespectively, 15.5% and 11.4% increased and decreased in area "


id: 6ba52159c62ea65a4012d07dffb3161d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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"Larger-scale studies confirmed that projected changes in the wave \r\nclimate superimposed on SLR will rapidly increase flooding in small \r\nislands, despite highly contrasting exposure profiles between ocean \r\nsub-regions (high confidence) (Shope et  al., 2016; Mentaschi et  al., \r\n2017; Shope et al., 2017; Vitousek et al., 2017; Morim et al., 2019). \r\nIn particular, Vitousek et  al. (2017) showed that even a 5-10-cm \r\nadditional SLR (expected for ~2030-2050) will double flooding \r\nfrequency in much of the Indian Ocean and Tropical Pacific, while TCs \r\nwill remain the main driver of (rarer) flooding in the Caribbean Sea "


id: 3b0dd9ce5d0fa4e63c4cb773d6e130a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"There is high confidence that accelerating SLR and increased wave height \r\nwill affect the geomorphology of reef islands (Baldock et al., 2015; Costa \r\net al., 2019; Tuck et al., 2019) and coastal systems on high islands (Grady \r\net  al., 2013; Barnard et  al., 2015; Bindoff et  al., 2019), and that the \r\nresponses of these systems will highly depend on changes in boundary \r\nconditions (wave regime and direction, exposure to extreme events, \r\nimpacts of ocean warming and acidification on supporting ecosystems, \r\nbathymetry and reef flat roughness) and the degree of disturbance of \r\ntheir natural dynamics by human activities (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014; \r\nMcLean and Kench, 2015; Bheeroo et al., 2016; Ratter et al., 2016; Shope \r\net al., 2016; Duvat et al., 2017a; Kench and Mann, 2017; Kench et al., \r\n2018; Duvat et  al., 2019a). Reef islands and beach and beach-dune "


id: 48b10101ccb5deb5587d7adf443b0c10
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"Satellite data and local field studies at 3351 sites in 81  countries \r\nincluding small islands show that not all coral reefs are equally \r\nexposed to severe temperature stress events, and even similar coral \r\nreefs exposed to similar conditions show local and regional variation \r\nand species-specific responses (Sully et  al., 2019). There is great \r\nvariability in terms of sensitivity of corals to climate change, as also "


id: 50169611570dd1e60af0a51c6d5fa67d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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content:
"Sandy beaches are an important ecosystem in small islands, with high \r\nsocioeconomic as well as ecosystem services value (Ellison, 2018). \r\nTurtles and many seabirds nest just above the high-water mark on \r\nsandy beaches or among sand dunes, but TCs, rising seas, storm surges \r\nand heavy rainfall as well as inappropriate coastal development can \r\nerode beaches (Section 15.3.1.2) resulting in damage to nests and eggs "


id: 436b46e31b9783c9f809d6444c8ccca6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:18
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vector_id: 8014
content:
"et  al., 2018). There is high confidence that climate change impacts, \r\ntogether with local human disturbances, will continue to denude coastal \r\nand marine ecosystem services in many small islands with serious \r\nconsequences for vulnerable communities (Elliff and Silva, 2017; Bindoff \r\net al., 2019)."


id: db30b2853e686c9810965124d016c005
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"(Fuentes et al., 2011). Beach-nesting turtle populations are projected \r\nto become threatened around many small islands as a result of future \r\nclimate change (e.g., Bonaire - Netherlands Antilles (Fish et al., 2005), \r\nBioko Island - Equatorial Guinea (Veelenturf et al., 2020), Cyprus (Varela \r\net al., 2019), Raine Island - Australia (Pike et al., 2015)), although other \r\npopulations such as those around the Cape Verde Islands are projected \r\nto remain relatively robust (Abella Perez et al., 2016). Turtles are also \r\nthreatened by temperature rise around some small islands as warmer \r\ntemperatures on nesting beaches can lead to an unbalanced sex ratio in \r\nthe population (e.g., St. Eustatius island, (Laloe et al., 2016))."


id: ccbf12ed8271ad60002f8d9319527e49
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"Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater stress \r\non many small islands, especially SIDS (high confidence).These changes \r\nare congruent with drought risk projections for Caribbean SIDS (Lehner \r\net al., 2017; Taylor et al., 2018) and aligned with observations from the \r\nShared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario, where a 1degC increase \r\nin temperature (from 1.7degC to 2.7degC) could result in a 60% increase in \r\nthe number of people projected to experience severe water resources \r\nstress from 2043 to 2071 (Schewe et  al., 2014; Karnauskas et  al., \r\n2018). In the Mediterranean region, freshwater resources will decline \r\nby 10-30% (medium confidence) (Koutroulis et al., 2016; Kumar et al., \r\n2020). For example, analysis of annual and seasonal streamflow data \r\non the island of Mallorca shows a decreasing trend during spring and \r\nsummer, with a reduction of up to 17% in some basins (Garcia, 2017)."


id: c131b691ad374f8cacbc7241b94c53c0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The influence of climate change spans several variables for atoll \r\nislands with multiple, interacting forces that exacerbate impacts on \r\nfreshwater ecosystems (Connell, 2016), including groundwater and \r\nfreshwater resources (Warix et  al., 2017). Analysis of groundwater \r\nresources on Roi-Namur, in the Marshall Islands, reveals that the \r\nextent of salinisation of fresh groundwater lenses varies with the scale \r\nof the overwash (Gingerich et al., 2017). Alsumaiei and Bailey (2018) \r\nestimated an 11-36% reduction in the fresh groundwater lens volume \r\nof the small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km2) of the Maldives due to SLR. \r\nSmall overwash events lead to saline conditions that last for up to \r\n3 months (Oberle et al., 2017)."


id: 8cb780d36db8be73402720ad6aeb4447
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"As corals, mangroves and seagrasses disappear, so do fish and other \r\ndependent organisms that directly benefit industries such as ecotourism \r\nand fisheries (high confidence) (Graham et al., 2015; Cinner et al., 2016). \r\nThese impacts are sometimes exacerbated by catastrophic events such \r\nas tropical storms and marine heatwaves that destroy habitats and \r\nhence the resources upon which coastal fisheries depend (Sainsbury "


id: c8b679175191d52007637190c3b3e10c
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content:
"SLR undermines the long-term persistence of freshwater-dependent \r\necosystems on islands (Goodman et al., 2012) and is one of the greatest \r\nthreats to the goods and services these environments provide (Box 16.1; "


id: 2fed71a9560b0f9c494a761846fda95
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"Figure 15.4 |  Ridge-to-reef interrelated protection services delivered by ecosystems on small islands. On small islands, terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems are \r\ninterconnected and interdependent, with each ecosystem contributing towards maintaining the health of the others. Together, these ecosystems provide protection services against \r\nnatural hazards (including flooding, erosion, landslides, mudflows, glacial melting and sedimentation) to human populations living on islands. As a consequence, the degradation of \r\none or more of these ecosystems significantly reduces the protection services provided by this continuum of ecosystems. Conversely, the protection or restoration of one or more of \r\nthese ecosystems also provides benefits to the other ecosystems and enhances the protection services provided to island inhabitants. See Box CCP1.1 for more details."


id: a1910e3e0a5d649dfe9408a001671dd0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 22975
content:
"Mitsch and Hernandez, 2013). Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2019) posit that as \r\nsea level rises, managing the risk of salinisation of freshwater resources \r\nwill become increasingly important. On Roi-Namur, Marshall Islands, \r\nStorlazzi et al. (2018) found that the availability of freshwater is impacted \r\nby the compounding effect of SLR and coastal flooding. In other Pacific \r\natolls, Terry and Chui (2012) showed that freshwater resources could be \r\nsignificantly affected by a 0.40-m SLR. Similar impacts are anticipated for \r\nsome Caribbean countries (Stennett-Brown et al., 2017). Such changes \r\nin SLR could increase salinity in estuarine and aquifer water, affecting \r\nground and surface water resources for drinking and irrigation water \r\n(Mycoo, 2018a) across the region (high confidence). SLR also affects \r\ngroundwater quality (Bailey et al., 2016), salinity (Gingerich et al., 2017) \r\nand water-table height (Masterson et al., 2014)."


id: 9fcc63e85f023d3f8a0f1764b2a501ee
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"The majority of studies modelling geographical range changes of small \r\nisland species, to even the most optimistic 21st century climate change \r\nscenarios, imply a reduction in climate refugia (Table 15.3, Box CCP1.1). \r\nThis is due to projected strong shifts, reductions or even complete losses \r\nof climatic niches resulting from inadequate geographic space for species \r\nto track suitable climate envelopes (high confidence) (e.g., Maharaj and \r\nNew, 2013; Fortini et al., 2015; Struebig et al., 2015b). Because of the \r\nhigh proportion of global endemics hosted within small and especially \r\nisolated islands, the resulting increased extinction risk of such species \r\n(up to 100%) could lead to disproportionate losses in global biodiversity \r\n(medium to high confidence) (Harter et al., 2015; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 2a436431688d9cea5914a36f0fe81f97
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Marine flooding is expected to destroy habitats of coastal species, \r\nparticularly range-restricted coastal and/or single-island endemics \r\n(many already listed as at least 'threatened' by the International Union \r\nfor Conservation of Nature) within the limited terrain on atoll islands. \r\nThese species have limited opportunities to accommodate such direct \r\nimpacts of climate change apart from shifting further inland or to other \r\nneighbouring atolls which might have favourable habitat. However, \r\nfragmentation of habitat due to anthropogenic activity may hinder "


id: 8bfc1bd4552e132cc794a5ccb1465e2e
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"potential for stressors such as forest fragmentation/degradation or IAS \r\ncombining with these increasingly intense events to cause precipitating \r\necosystem cascades is a real concern (Goulding et al., 2016)."


id: b8defcfecb3f6117205270a4c7033433
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"migration further inland, while shifting to neighbouring islands is \r\nnot viable due to the water barrier between islands (high confidence) \r\n(Bellard et al., 2013b; Wetzel et al., 2013; Kumar and Tehrany, 2017). \r\nAdditionally, migratory birds, which use small islands (e.g., atolls) for \r\nstopovers or breeding/nesting sites, are projected to become impacted. \r\nWithin the Mediterranean and Caribbean, significant losses to coastal \r\nwetlands--critical habitat for migratory birds--has already been \r\nobserved, with further significant habitat losses, redistribution and \r\nchanges in quality being projected across island systems such as the \r\nBahamas (Caribbean) and Sardinia (Mediterranean) (Vogiatzakis et al., \r\n2016; Wolcott et al., 2018)."


id: 83a8bbfa6bd84d531c258ba79ed4bdfc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Indirect impacts of SLR may potentially result in equal or more \r\nbiodiversity loss than direct impacts (medium confidence). Relocation \r\nof displaced coastal human populations and associated intensive \r\nagriculture and urban areas inland to natural habitat may result in \r\ngreater biodiversity loss than direct impacts--especially on islands \r\nwith large coastal populations and urban centres (Wetzel et al., 2012; \r\nBellard et al., 2013b). Given the dense population of insular hotspots \r\n(~31.8% of existing humans within ~15.9% of inhabited global land \r\narea) and the fact that on many islands, large proportions of human \r\npopulations live within coastal regions, it has been suggested that \r\nimmense impacts from such relocations should be factored into \r\nprojection and adaptation studies (Wetzel et al., 2012)."


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vector_id: 4383
content:
"Tropical island natural habitats/systems are highly vulnerable \r\nto extreme weather events such as TCs, due to their small size, \r\nunique ecological systems and often low socioeconomic capacity \r\n(high confidence) (Box  15.2; Goulding et  al., 2016; Schutte et  al., \r\n2018). Growing evidence suggests high resilience of forest habitats \r\n(Keppel et al., 2014; Luke et al., 2017), especially within intact forest \r\necosystems to hurricanes and cyclones (Goulding et al., 2016). While \r\ninitial damage can be high, relatively fast recovery rates have been \r\nreported for both floral and faunal components of these ecosystems \r\n(Cantrell et al., 2014; Shiels et al., 2014; Monoy et al., 2016; Richardson \r\net al., 2018). Within the Caribbean in particular, high resilience of forest \r\ntypes has been associated with the current intensity and return rate of \r\nhurricanes over the past 150 years."


id: 1cf144be6bcb66a1fe35ba8fb08a7cb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"It should, however, be underscored that these relatively fast recovery \r\nrates are associated with the present intensity and return rate of TCs. \r\nThey do not reflect the impacts of increasingly intense events such as \r\nHurricane Dorian (2019), which resulted in almost complete inundation \r\nof several low-lying islands of the Bahamas from storm surges. Severe \r\nweather events also have indirect effects on the biodiversity of islands--\r\ninteracting synergistically with other stressors, such as increased invasion \r\nby non-native species and land use change. For example, TCs within \r\nPapua New Guinea resulted in the destruction of subsistence gardens, \r\nwhich led inhabitants to clear forest areas for new farming areas and for \r\nharvesting of timber resources to rebuild (Goulding et al., 2016)."


id: d2639cbcaa8aaf1a2da2eed1803d0300
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 30628
content:
"Compared to continents, terrestrial IAS are disproportionately prevalent \r\non islands (almost three quarters of global species currently threatened \r\nby IAS and disease are found on islands) and also generate stronger \r\nimpacts (e.g., within alpine ecosystems of high islands) than on \r\ncontinents (high confidence)(Bellard et al., 2014; Bellard et al., 2016; \r\nFrazier and Brewington, 2019). Russell and Blackburn (2017) suggested \r\na correlation between small island size and increased numbers of IAS. \r\nSIDS within the Indian Ocean and in particular the Pacific SIDS region \r\nwere reported to have significantly more IAS (medium confidence), \r\nwhile the Caribbean and Atlantic SIDS have fewer numbers but faster "


id: 28a4f1568d802eae553b791be6b229a2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"The most recent projections suggest that TC intensity is predicted to \r\nincrease as climate continues to change (Walsh et  al., 2016; Kossin \r\net al., 2017). There are too few studies available to suggest potential \r\nfuture response trends of these ecosystems to this increased intensity; \r\nhowever, it seems plausible that present resilience capacities may be \r\nadversely impacted (medium confidence) (Marler, 2014). Further, the "


id: 12a65f018442bfa72c1d52846ba79b0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"accumulation of IAS. Finally, while there have been developments in \r\nthe eradication of IAS on islands (Jones et al., 2016), there is sparse \r\nevidence and hence assessment of the degree to which measures \r\ndesigned to prevent introduction and to manage invasion pathways \r\nand establishment have been successful."


id: 42fc07b6f0d47c69bf940e73d0655b4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Changes in rainfall patterns such as heavy precipitation result in annual \r\nflood events that damage major assets and result in a loss of human \r\nlife. Examples of settlements where this has occurred are Port of Spain \r\n(Mycoo, 2014b; 2018a), Haiti (Weissenberger, 2018), Viti Levu (Brown \r\net al., 2017; Singh-Peterson and Iranacolaivalu, 2018), urban areas of Fiji \r\nand Kiribati (McAneney et al., 2017; Cauchi et al., 2021), Male', Maldives \r\n(Wadey et al., 2017), and Mahe, in the Seychelles (Etongo, 2019)."


id: c56329c15b76b1e3b61ded20d2afdad5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"The main settlements of small islands are located along the coast \r\nand with decades of high-density coastal urban development, their \r\npopulation, buildings and infrastructure are currently exposed \r\nto multiple climate change-related hazards (Kumar and Taylor, \r\n2015; Mycoo, 2017) and face key risks (high confidence) (KR5 in \r\nFigure 15.5). In many small islands, population is concentrated in the \r\nlow-elevation coastal zone (LECZ), which is defined as coastal areas \r\nbelow 10-m elevation. Approximately 22 million in the Caribbean live \r\nbelow 6-m elevation (Cashman and Nagdee, 2017) and an estimated \r\n90% of Pacific Islanders live within 5 km of the coast, if Papua New \r\nGuinea is excluded (Andrew et  al., 2019). In the Solomon Islands "


id: a049ddeb875f50f1a3a4a42fabefbd03
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content:
"As a result of slow-onset ocean and climate changes and changes in \r\nextreme events, settlements and infrastructure of small islands are \r\nat growing risk due to climate change in the absence of adaptation \r\nmeasures (high confidence). Ocean acidification and deoxygenation, \r\nincreased ocean temperatures and relative SLR are impacting marine, \r\ncoastal and terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services, making \r\nsettlements more exposed and vulnerable to climate-related hazards. "


id: d4cebab073d172acda1e4e26dca268e6
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"factors (see Cross-Chapter Box  ILLNESS in Chapter 2; McIver et  al., \r\n2016; Mycoo, 2018a; WHO, 2018)."


id: 55112aeb95b3c3ed85f8982d1dfe7ffb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"and Vanuatu, over 60% of the population lives within 1 km of the \r\ncoast (Andrew et al., 2019). Most Pacific islands have >=50% of their \r\ninfrastructure within 500 m of the coast (Kumar and Taylor, 2015), and \r\nin Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, >95% of the infrastructure is \r\nlocated in the LECZ (Andrew et al., 2019) (Figure 15.3). Sustainable \r\ndevelopment challenges including insufficient land use planning and \r\nland use competition contribute to increased vulnerability of human \r\nsettlements to climate change in small islands (Kelman, 2014; Mycoo, \r\n2021)."


id: 6ab3d08010a6b203052efaf792d9099b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Categories 4 and 5 TCs are severely impacting settlements and \r\ninfrastructure in small islands. TC Maria in 2017 destroyed nearly all of \r\nDominica's infrastructure and losses per unit of GDP amounted to more \r\nthan 225% of the annual GDP (Eckstein et al., 2018). Destruction from \r\nTC Winston in 2016 amounted to more than 20% of Fiji's current GDP \r\n(Cox et al., 2018). Additionally, living conditions in human settlements \r\nare changing due to storm surge which is already penetrating further \r\ninland compared with a few decades ago (IPCC, 2018, Section 3.4.4.3; \r\nBrown et al., 2018)."


id: 75454cc972100aa2829bff30deddbb04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"A growing percentage of the population in small islands lives in informal \r\nsettlements which occupy marginal lands leading to increased population \r\nexposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards (Mycoo and \r\nDonovan, 2017). Unplanned settlements have compounded flooding \r\nbrought on by slow-onset hazards such as coastal and riverine flooding \r\nand fast-onset events such as TCs and storm surges (Butcher-Gollach, \r\n2015; Chandra and Gaganis, 2016; Mycoo, 2017). Unsustainable land \r\nuse practices and difficulties in enforcing land use zoning and building \r\nguidelines in informal settlements make them highly vulnerable to such \r\nevents (Butcher-Gollach, 2015; Mecartney and Connell, 2017; Mycoo, \r\n2017; 2018b; 2021; Trundle et al., 2018)."


id: 2bdfd6134c27a0dece08e3f2a9ba4f20
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content:
"Heat-related mortality and risks of occupational heat stress in small \r\nisland states are projected to increase with higher temperatures (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al., 2018; Mendez-Lazaro et al., 2018). Higher temperatures \r\ncan also affect the productivity of outdoor workers (Taylor et al., 2021). \r\nClimate change, urbanisation, and air pollution are risk factors for the \r\nrise of allergic diseases in Asia Pacific (Pawankar et al., 2020)."


id: 6dd2a416a7ebdb3bcedecd93359b4c3f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"TC intensification in the future is likely to cause severe damage to \r\nhuman settlements and infrastructure in small islands. Additionally, SLR \r\nis expected to cause significant losses and damages (Martyr-Koller et al., \r\n2021). Based on SLR projections, almost all port and harbour facilities in \r\nthe Caribbean will suffer inundation in the future (Cashman and Nagdee, \r\n2017). In Jamaica and St. Lucia, SLR and ESLs are projected to be key \r\nrisks to transport infrastructure at 1.5degC unless further adaptation is \r\nundertaken (Monioudi et al., 2018). Similar findings were reported for \r\nSamoa (Fakhruddin et al., 2015). Even islands of higher elevation are \r\nexpected to be threatened, given the high amount of infrastructure \r\nlocated near the coast, for example, Fiji (Kumar and Taylor, 2015)."


id: c0a34a886345b1792eaada3e7cf5c8aa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Small islands face disproportionate health risks associated with \r\nchanges in temperature and precipitation, climate variability, and \r\nextremes (Cross-Chapter Box  INTERREG in Chapter 16; KR4 in \r\nSection 15.3.9, Figure 15.5). Climate change is projected to increase \r\nthe current burden of climate-related health risks (Weatherdon et al., \r\n2016; Ebi et  al., 2018; Schnitter et  al., 2019). Health risks can arise \r\nfrom exposures to extreme weather and climate events, including \r\nheatwaves; changes in ecological systems associated with changing \r\nweather patterns that can result, for example, in more disease \r\nvectors, or in compromised safety and security of water and food; and \r\nexposures related to disruption of health systems, migration, and other "


id: cba18d45765f86a01a55e1cf990b5765
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vector_id: 29582
content:
"Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) is a foodborne illness caused by toxic \r\ndinoflagellate algae that proliferate on degraded coral reefs and that can \r\ncontaminate reef fish; symptoms can remain for a few weeks to months. \r\nCFP occurs in tropical and subtropical regions, primarily in the South \r\nPacific and Caribbean, but wherever reef fish are consumed (Traylor and \r\nSinghal, 2020). In the Caribbean Sea, increasing ocean temperatures \r\nare expected to stabilise or slightly decrease the incidence of CFP \r\nbecause of shifts in species distribution of dinoflagellates associated "


id: c1b8db04b72147690f51a9b7ea6506da
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"with CFP (Kibler et al., 2015). CFP is endemic in the Cook Islands and \r\nFrench Polynesia, where incidence is associated with SST anomalies \r\n(Zheng et al., 2020). In the Canary Islands, tropicalisation trends due \r\nto climate change are expected to increase CFP occurrence in the \r\nfuture (Rodriguez et al., 2017). In addition, in the Caribbean, increased \r\ndensity of Sargassum algae, possibly due to ocean temperature impacts \r\non ocean currents compounded by agricultural pollution, may lead to \r\nincreased respiratory illnesses (Resiere et al., 2018; 2019; 2020)."


id: 8cf5df5fc4f0215051f588ca68622e85
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"as a result of low average precipitation coupled with increasing water \r\ndemand from economic activities such as irrigated agriculture and \r\ntourism (Hof et al., 2014; Papadimitriou et al., 2019)."


id: e326e0419190fcb0d6cc9a984bd49f8f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 33232
content:
"Heavy reliance on aquifers and rainwater harvesting in small islands, \r\nparticularly atolls, coupled with overcrowding, population growth \r\nand contamination increase the risk of waterborne disease (McIver \r\net al., 2014; 2016; Strauch et al., 2014). For example, seasonal rainfall \r\nin Kiribati is associated with waterborne disease (such as diarrhoea, \r\ncholera, and typhoid fever). Future projections indicate increases in the \r\nnumber of days of heavy rainfall by 2050, suggesting future increases \r\nin risk in heavily populated areas (McIver et  al., 2014). Damage to \r\nwater and sanitation services can cause infectious disease outbreaks, \r\nsuch as the cholera outbreak that occurred in Haiti following TC \r\nMatthew (Raila and Anderson, 2017; Hulland et al., 2019)."


id: e9d20f96155960b92034bf9f8813851a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Evidence is emerging of the mental health impacts of climate change \r\n(limited evidence). Tuvaluans are experiencing distress because of the \r\nlocal environmental impacts caused or exacerbated by climate change, \r\nand by hearing about the potential future consequences of climate \r\nchange (Gibson et al., 2020)."


id: 23a67dcfb5a2c392c0bd060f79b8111c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Areas where a freshwater lens is thinner are most likely to be impacted \r\nby multiple climate stressors, and these areas tend to be in coastal \r\nzones where populations are likely to be most concentrated (Holding \r\net al., 2016). In Barbados, where groundwater is relied upon for food \r\nproduction, urban use and environmental needs, higher food prices \r\nare expected in the future if informed land use management and \r\nintegrated water resources policies are not implemented to manage \r\ngroundwater in the short term, even with modest climate change \r\nthreats (Gohar et al., 2019)."


id: 285a3611af6f26a37284ff1bf5e0ce32
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"Climate change impacts on freshwater systems frequently exacerbate \r\nexisting pressure, especially in locations already experiencing water \r\nscarcity (Section  15.3.3.2 and Cross-Chapter Box  INTERREG in \r\nChapter 16; Schewe et  al., 2014; Holding et  al., 2016; Karnauskas \r\net al., 2016), making water security a key risk (KR4 in Figure 15.5) in \r\nsmall islands. Small islands are usually environments where demand \r\nfor resources related to socioeconomic factors such as population \r\ngrowth, urbanisation and tourism already place increasing pressure \r\non limited freshwater resources. In many small islands, water demand \r\nalready exceeds supply. For example, in the Caribbean, Barbados is \r\nutilising close to 100% of its available water resources and St. Lucia \r\nhas a water supply deficit of approximately 35% (Cashman, 2014). On \r\nmany Mediterranean islands, water demand regularly outstrips supply "


id: 19db0f05e08bb349f615dc62bffe1d45
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Fisheries provide small islands with opportunities for economic \r\ndevelopment, revenues, food security and livelihoods (Bell et al., 2018). \r\nTen Pacific Island countries and territories derive between 5% and >90% \r\nof all government revenue (except grants) from access fees paid by \r\nindustrial tuna-fishing fleets, mainly from distant-water fishing nations \r\n(Bell et al., 2018; SPC, 2019). Under a high greenhouse gas emissions \r\nscenario (RCP8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters \r\nof 10 Pacific SIDS could decline by an average of 13% (range = -5-"


id: b24ebc9d41524f7b4ae54c7dbdd66c6d
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content:
"In the Caribbean, additional warming by 0.2deg-1.0degC could lead to a \r\npredominantly drier region (5-15% less rain than present-day), a greater \r\noccurrence of droughts (Taylor et  al., 2018) along with associated \r\nimpacts on agricultural production and yield in the region (Gamble et al., \r\n2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019; Nicolas et al., 2020). Crop suitability \r\nmodelling on several commercially important crops grown in Jamaica \r\nfound that even an increase of less than 1.5degC could result in a reduction \r\nin the range of crops that farmers may grow (Rhiney et al., 2018)."


id: ccbe96dff2113711499ff27a03ad5bf8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Sugar yield in Fiji could decline by 2-14% under projected scenarios \r\n(McGree et  al., 2020). Farmers in some small islands have utilised \r\nIndigenous knowledge systems built on local ontology to sharpen their \r\nsensitivity to environmental conditions (Shah et al., 2018). However, \r\nprojected climate change across the Pacific could undermine climate\u0002sensitive agricultural livelihoods and exacerbate food insecurity \r\nchallenges (McCubbin et al., 2017; Campbell et al., 2021)."


id: 3e5432371aaccdf552adab8888056692
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"Projected climate impacts on island agroecosystem services could \r\naccentuate a myriad of social and ecological risks (Campbell, 2021). \r\nWithout proactive farm management practices, the projected impacts of \r\nclimate change on drought patterns is a major threat to cocoa pollination \r\nservices (Arnold et al., 2018). Many tropical island agroforestry crops are \r\ncompletely dependent on insect pollination and it is therefore important to \r\nunderstand the climatic drivers of changing conditions related to pollinator \r\nabundance. Coastal agroforestry systems in small Pacific islands are vital \r\nto national food security but native biodiversity is rapidly declining (Ticktin "


id: ac0c386482e03b12fad660e96cb4e08f
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"from climate change (Shakeela and Becken, 2015), a position that may \r\nbe borne out by sustained/rising demand for small island vacationing \r\nin some locales (Katircioglu et al., 2019). A way forward is for island \r\ntourism to emphasize its low-carbon and sustainable attributes, and to \r\nencourage smaller-scale eco-friendly holiday opportunities (Lee et al., \r\n2018), in other words for island nations to embrace a 'blue economy' \r\nin line with SDG14 to conserve and utilise their oceans for sustainable \r\nfutures (Hampton and Jeyacheya, 2020; Hassanali, 2020)."


id: a9c237cd6ac0c0af75e10976d090f3ec
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"et al., 2018). Biodiversity loss from traditional agroecosystems is a major \r\nthreat to food and livelihoods security in SIDS (UNEP, 2014a). Additionally, \r\nwhile coastal-lowland salinisation and more frequent flooding attributable \r\nto SLR have impacted coastal agriculture on some islands (Cruz and \r\nAndrade, 2017; Wairiu, 2017), stronger TCs can sometimes shock island \r\nterrestrial food production warranting reconfiguration (Mertz et al., 2010; \r\nDuvat et al., 2016; Chakrabarti et al., 2017). Calls to conserve associated \r\nenvironments and to make terrestrial food production on islands more \r\nresilient to climate-driven shocks underscore concern about future food \r\nsecurity (Connell, 2013; de Scally, 2014). Implicit in the latter is reversing \r\nthe decades-long loss of Indigenous knowledge about food production in \r\nmany island societies and incorporating it into future strategies (Mercer \r\net al., 2014b; Janif et al., 2016)."


id: c6ff9e76d438b410af9bfe3a5ce76f84
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Given the high cost of imported goods, especially foodstuffs, larger \r\nisland jurisdictions are striving to transform their economies to favour \r\nlocally produced or locally constituted materials that employ local \r\npeople and reduce their cost of living. The exposure of this component of \r\nisland economies varies, yet manufacturing/commercial operations are \r\nusually found in the lowest-lying areas, often on reclaimed lands. This \r\nmakes them especially vulnerable to rising sea level, part of a larger issue \r\naround the disproportionate exposure of infrastructure on small islands \r\nto climate change (Fakhruddin et al., 2015; Kumar and Taylor, 2015)."


id: 6915997df53b88483f414567f5d34d0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 14126
content:
"Small island economies vary greatly in their nature, history/trends \r\nand viability under a changed climate. As elsewhere, few small island \r\neconomies are overseen by governments that are adequately prepared \r\nfor the economic impacts of climate change over the next few decades \r\n(Connell, 2013; Hay, 2013). In particular, the lack of diversity that \r\ncharacterises most small island economies means they are especially \r\nvulnerable to global (climate-driven) shocks (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP \r\nin Chapter 17), be these the impacts of extreme events or more gradual \r\nlonger-term change, which makes the maintenance of traditional \r\nmechanisms for coping with such shocks in many island societies all \r\nthe more important (Granderson, 2017; Wilson and Forsyth, 2018; \r\nNunn and Kumar, 2019b). As a result, the risk from climate change to \r\neconomies constitutes a key risk (KR7 in Figure 15.5) in small islands."


id: 5885f77a93769bdd08170e7c75439d0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 11427
content:
"Many island environments have been commercially exploited by \r\nexternal interests for much of their recent history. This is especially \r\ncommon for timber, the wholesale removal of forests, especially on \r\ntropical islands, exposing land to heavy rain that leads to denudation \r\nand increases lowland sedimentation (Wairiu, 2017; Eppinga and \r\nPucko, 2018). Negative aspects of both processes will be exacerbated \r\nby climate change, demonstrating the practical need for reforestation \r\nin many island contexts (Thomson et  al., 2016). Some small island \r\neconomies are sustained by extractive industries such as mining, \r\ncreating dependencies that lead to their environmental impacts being \r\ndownplayed (Tserkezis and Tsakanikas, 2016; Shepherd et al., 2018). \r\nIt is important to address these impacts as they will add to negative \r\nimpacts of climate change (Clifford et al., 2019)."


id: 396403ecb2eda899d8be9181e2c31c1f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Many small island economies are sustained by tourism and have \r\ninvested heavily in associated infrastructure and capacity building \r\n(Cannonier and Burke, 2018). Some rural island communities have \r\nbecome dependent on tourism to the point that it would be difficult \r\nto revert to subsistence living (Lasso and Dahles, 2018). Coast-focused \r\n(beach-sea) tourism in island contexts is already being impacted \r\nby beach erosion, elevated high SST causing coral bleaching, and \r\nassociated marine-biodiversity loss, as well as more intense TCs \r\n(Tapsuwan and Rongrongmuang, 2015; Parsons et al., 2018; Wabnitz \r\net  al., 2018). The COVID-19 pandemic travel disruption significantly \r\naffected the tourism sector of Caribbean islands by reducing incomes \r\nthat would have been used to enhance climate resilience (Sheller, \r\n2020). Many tourism interests downplay the impacts and future risks "


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"Table 15.4 |  Global mean sea level rise (SLR) at 2100 projections and associated population of SIDS exposed to permanent inundation for global mean surface temperature \r\nstabilisation targets of 1.5degC, 2.0degC and 2.5degC. Rasmussen et al. (2018)."


id: 7dae82e013358875aba5657d3d95aff9
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"(c) Potentially affected population due to local mean SLR. Local mean SLR projections used for individual SIDS take account of variations from the global mean due to factors such \r\nas glacial isostatic adjustment, gravitational changes from ice melting, deltaic subsidence and tectonic movements."


id: 873d8cd8999deeccbfff6f5b93ed7065
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"of SIDS may become uninhabitable well before the time of permanent \r\ninundation (see also studies referenced in Section 15.3.3.1.1). A similar \r\nconclusion is drawn by Kulp and Strauss (2019), who show that land \r\narea home to 10% or more of the population of many SIDS is at risk of \r\nchronic coastal flooding or permanent inundation by 2100."


id: 6980dcd121a859bcdb3140ff7529e5e0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Studies do not provide sufficiently robust evidence to attribute the \r\nvarious forms of migration to anthropogenic climate change directly on \r\nsmall islands or to accurately estimate the current number of climate\u0002related migrants (see Chapter 7). Climate events and conditions \r\nstrongly interact with other environmental stressors and economic, \r\nsocial, political and cultural reasons for migrating (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014; Campbell and Warrick, \r\n2014; Laczko and Piguet, 2014; Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Connell, 2016; \r\nWeber, 2016b; Stojanov et al., 2017; Cashman and Yawson, 2019)."


id: 273928919f186e3886aa9ca3fba08f0a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Duvat et  al. (2021a) employed an integrated systems approach to \r\nanalyse future risk to habitability in atoll islands, taking into account \r\nchanges in various ocean and atmospheric climate drivers and a \r\nmoderate adaptation scenario (i.e., adaptation responses that remain \r\nsimilar in nature and magnitude to currently observed responses). They \r\nfound that, compared to present-day risk, additional risk to habitability \r\nin Male', Maldives, and Fongafale, Tuvalu, is minimal under a low \r\nemissions scenario (RCP2.6) at 2050, although it may become moderate \r\nfor Male and high for Fongafale by 2090. Under a worse-case emissions \r\nscenario (RCP8.5), future risk to habitability in these two urban islands \r\nmay increase slightly in 2050, but may increase to moderate-to-high \r\n(for Male') and high-to-very high (for Fongafale) by 2090."


id: c54d76b76c4fb8b12ee89c8dfd720388
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"Despite difficulties with attribution, the literature establishes that \r\nclimate variability and extreme events and broad environmental \r\npressures have contributed to some degree to human mobility on \r\nsmall islands over time (medium evidence, high agreement) (Birk \r\nand Rasmussen, 2014; Campbell, 2014a; Campbell and Warrick, \r\n2014; Donner, 2015; Kelman, 2015a; Connell, 2016; Stojanov et  al., \r\n2017; Barnett and McMichael, 2018; Martin et  al., 2018) and these \r\nstudies can provide analogues from which to inform climate-migration \r\nresponses (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014; Kelman, 2015a; Connell, 2016)."


id: 57e87c34122f1cbc11cb0abce45b6325
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Even where settlement locations and livelihoods remain secure, an \r\nincrease in health diseases, decrease in the availability of potable water \r\nand increasing exposure to extreme events may reduce habitability \r\n(Section 15.3.4.9.2; Campbell and Warrick, 2014; Storlazzi et al., 2018). \r\nFor example, the Fijian coastal community of Vunidogoloa made the \r\ndecision to relocate in response to regular inundation during high tides. \r\nRaising houses on stilts and constructing a seawall failed to prevent \r\nregular flood damage to buildings and the entire community eventually \r\nrelocated as a 'last resort' adaptation measure to a site within customary \r\nland. The availability of customary land for the new site was a key factor \r\nof success in this relocation example although this will not guarantee \r\nsuccess in every case as relocation may expose communities to new risks \r\n(McNamara and Des Combes, 2015; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019a)."


id: f2672228a1e27cc1db281b95ee9aa28e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Similarly, studies do not provide robust evidence to project how the full \r\nrange of climate drivers may influence migration patterns on small islands \r\ninto the future, although studies are emerging that estimate populations \r\naffected as a consequence of projected SLR. Rasmussen et  al. (2018) \r\nestimated current populations of the world that are potentially subject \r\nto permanent inundation from projected local mean SLR associated with \r\nglobal mean surface temperature stabilisation targets of 1.5degC, 2.0degC \r\nand 2.5degC occurring in 2100. For the affected land area and population, \r\nthis analysis included a subset of 58 SIDS, as defined by the United \r\nNations, for which the results are shown in Table 15.4."


id: c38d5b5771569dd699b7a1105ea81b97
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The aggregate figures of population that could potentially be affected \r\nby permanent inundation shown in Table 15.4 and Figure 15.3 mask \r\nimportant differences in relative exposure between individual SIDS. \r\nFurther, population affected by permanent inundation does not take \r\ninto account the change in the frequency of ESL events and associated \r\nwater-level attenuation (as per Vafeidis et  al., 2019), nor does it \r\naccount for adaptation measures that may alleviate impacts, future \r\npopulation growth or the extent to which populations could adaptively \r\nmigrate (Section  15.5.3). However, the analysis by Rasmussen et  al. \r\n(2018) shows that comparatively small changes in mean sea level can \r\nresult in large increases in the frequencies of ESL events and, hence, \r\nthe risk of coastal flooding of inhabited land, suggesting many areas "


id: 48fdf03887f8d3b4e4835e10bb83dc9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Small island societies have developed IKLK-based responses to \r\nliving in dynamic environments susceptible to climate variability and \r\nextremes, which are based in broader systems of culture and heritage \r\n(high confidence) (Barnett and Campbell, 2010; Lazrus, 2015; Nunn \r\net al., 2017b; Bryant-Tokalau, 2018b; Nalau et al., 2018b; Perkins and \r\nKrause, 2018). As expanded upon in Section 15.6.5, cultural resources \r\nare thought to play an important role in climate change adaptation on \r\nsmall islands through contributing to adaptive capacity and resilience "


id: db04535b830d55cef72b283a1d0d8484
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 31976
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"(McMillen et al., 2014; Petzold and Ratter, 2015; Nunn et al., 2017b; \r\nWarrick et al., 2017; Falanruw, 2018; Mondragon, 2018; Neef et al., \r\n2018; Parsons et al., 2018; Perkins and Krause, 2018; Hagedoorn et al., \r\n2019; 2020a) (robust evidence, medium agreement). Thus, loss of \r\nculture (KR8 in Figure 15.5) threatens adaptive capacity."


id: 66a2e65a5442a373b163b51d91a4966b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Inter-regional transboundary impacts are those generated by processes \r\noriginating in another region or continent well beyond the borders \r\nof an individual archipelagic nation or small island. Intra-regional \r\ntransboundary impacts originate from a within-region source (e.g., \r\nthe Caribbean). Some transboundary processes may have positive \r\neffects on the receiving small island or nation, although most that are \r\nreported have negative impacts (Table 15.5)."


id: 2441dd06817f2ca2158a0c2b05ae39e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Slow-onset climate and ocean changes, and changes in extreme \r\nevents, are expected to cause and/or to amplify nine KRs in small \r\nislands, through both direct (e.g., decrease in rainfall will increase \r\nwater insecurity) and indirect, that is, cascading effects: For example, \r\nloss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services will increase \r\nwater insecurity, which will in turn cause the degradation of human \r\nhealth and well-being (Figure 15.5, Table 15.6 and SM16)."


id: 8ae16336b3575a4f68a0fc0d443c6ba6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Population and settlement concentration in coastal areas and high \r\nexposure to climate-driven coastal hazards on small islands mean that \r\nthreats to tangible cultural heritage (archaeological sites, buildings, \r\nhistoric sites, UNESCO World Heritage Sites etc.) are high (Marzeion \r\nand Levermann, 2014; Reimann et  al., 2018), although few studies \r\nexamine this issue specifically in a small island context. On the island \r\nof Barbuda, archaeological sites containing important information on \r\nhistorical ecology and climatic shifts are at risk from coastal erosion and \r\nhurricanes. This loss of heritage represents identity loss, as \"learning \r\nabout the past is a crucial exploration of self that grounds and connects \r\npeople to places\" (Perdikaris et al., 2017; p. 145). Losses and damages \r\nto heritage sites may also impact tourism and thus have significant \r\neconomic impacts for narrow small island economies (Section 15.3.4.5)."


id: 4309ebc2bca6e948eecef2b889535196
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"These KRs include loss of marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem \r\nservices (high confidence) (KR1; for details on KR coverage, see \r\nSection 15.3.3.1); submergence of reef islands (low confidence) (KR2; \r\nSection 15.3.3.1.1); loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services \r\n(high confidence) (KR3; Section  15.3.3.3); water insecurity (medium\u0002high confidence) (KR4; Section 15.3.4.3); destruction of settlements and \r\ninfrastructure (high confidence) (KR5; Section 15.3.4.1); degradation of \r\nhuman health and well-being (low confidence) (KR6; Section 15.3.4.2); \r\neconomic decline and livelihood failure (high confidence) (KR7; \r\nSections  15.3.4.4 and 15.3.4.5); and loss of cultural resources and \r\nheritage (low confidence) (KR8; Section 15.3.4.7)."


id: 912875d5adb02061c7f189dfc879d1f5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Table 15.5 |  Summary of inter- and intra-regional transboundary risks and impacts on small islands."


id: 6a35f624b14a0380ff9a546a9ce441ac
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"Box 15.1 | Key Examples of Cumulative Impacts from Compound Events: Maldives Islands and \r\nCaribbean Region"


id: 9bd7d0b69e1be098a7eba3af16943914
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Cumulative Impacts of the Compound Events of the 1998-2016 Period in the Maldives Islands\r\nBetween 1998 and 2016, the Maldives Islands were affected by three major climate events, including the 1997-1998 ENSO event, the \r\n2007 flood event and the 2016 ENSO event, and by one tectonic event, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (Morri et al., 2015). These events \r\nillustrate the cumulative and cascading risks that a series of events may cause in reef-dependent atoll contexts (Figure Box 15.1)."


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"Additionally, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (Magnan, 2006) and the 2007 flood (Wadey et al., 2017) caused damage totalling 62% \r\nof the country's GDP (Luetz, 2017). The tsunami also downgraded the Maldives (now a middle-income country) to the Least Developed \r\nCountries category and caused within-country migration, with 30,000 people (9.6% of the country's population) displaced (Republic \r\nof Maldives, 2009). These successive events, which had cumulative devastating effects on the reef ecosystem and cascading effects on \r\nhealth and well-being, livelihoods and the economy, highlighted the risk posed by limited recovery time to the whole social-ecological \r\nsystem as well as the detrimental effect of local human disturbances on reef recovery."


