# document

id: da5ef080ab85b0a4cdbc45f2696efa52
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The loss of mangroves (Branoff, 2018; Walcker et al., 2019; Taillie et al., 2020) and terrestrial forests (Eppinga and Pucko, 2018; Feng et al., \r\n2018; Hu and Smith, 2018; Van Beusekom et al., 2018) exacerbated the cyclone-induced economic crisis. In the most affected islands, the \r\ndestruction of buildings and outmigration generated a significant loss of tangible (e.g., museums) and intangible (e.g., traditional artistry) \r\ncultural heritage (Boger et al., 2019). Prolonged displacement of entire island populations (e.g., Ragged Island, the Bahamas, Barbuda) \r\ncaused 'non-economic loss and damage', including threats to health and well-being, and loss of culture, sense of place and agency \r\n(Thomas and Benjamin, 2019), which may further exacerbate the long-term vulnerability of concerned communities."


id: 83c2c7f67474cdf0a49c7d0768bee637
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In early 2020, while island communities were still recovering from the 2017 hurricanes, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the closure of \r\nglobal transportation, with devastating socioeconomic impacts on tourism-dependent Caribbean economies (Sheller, 2020), illustrating \r\nhow compounding crises increase island vulnerability to both climate- and non-climate-related events."


id: 87983ca0cc5f7f41b95e9e8723549aed
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"Loss and damage has a range of conceptualisations (Section 1.4.4.2; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17) and is a critical issue for \r\nmany small islands, closely related to issues of climate justice (Section 15.7). Small islands are already experiencing an array of negative \r\nclimate change impacts while climate risks are projected to increase as global average temperatures rise (Sections 15.3, 16.2; Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 2). Barriers and limits to adaptation also contribute to greater levels of both economic and non-economic loss and damage \r\nfor small islands (Sections 15.6, 16.4)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"For SIDS in particular, loss and damage has negative implications for sustainable development (Benjamin et al., 2018). The costs of loss \r\nand damage, particularly from extreme events, can deplete national capital reserves (Noy and Edmonds, 2019). Thomas and Benjamin \r\n(2017) show how loss and damage can lead to an 'unvirtuous cycle of climate-induced erosion of development and resilience'. In this \r\ncycle, addressing loss and damage strains limited national resources, diverting public funding and other resources to address negative \r\nclimate impacts. This in turn reduces resources and capacities which could be allocated to adaptation, building resilience and sustainable \r\ndevelopment, thereby increasing vulnerability to climate change and leading to further loss and damage where the cycle begins again. \r\nThe cascading and cumulative impacts of extreme events experienced in Pacific and Caribbean SIDS exemplify that this cycle may already \r\nbe in effect."


id: c722fd60bb6904e08727bf1dc7e493e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In addition to the strain on national resources that loss and damage currently presents, credit ratings of SIDS have recently begun to \r\ninclude vulnerability to climate change, which may have negative impacts on their abilities to borrow external funds, attract foreign \r\ninvestment or access concessional financing (Buhr et al., 2018; Volz et al., 2020). Costs of addressing loss and damage may also affect the \r\nability of SIDS to repay external debt, thus endangering eligibility for future access to funding (Baarsch and Kelman, 2016; Klomp, 2017; \r\nShutter, 2020). These factors may place SIDS in situations where they face mounting costs of climate change with eroding capacities and \r\nresources to address loss and damage."


id: bc617e370fe60c97998551238948fdc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In the international policy arena, small islands--as part of the AOSIS--have been strong advocates for including loss and damage in \r\nthe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); highlighting the increasing and irreversible risks that climate \r\nchange poses for islands in particular (Roberts and Huq, 2015; Adelman, 2016; Mace and Verheyen, 2016). AOSIS, along with other \r\ndeveloping countries and groups, have advocated that there is a pressing need for finance and resources to address loss and damage as \r\nwell as greater integration of loss and damage in the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, including in capacity building, technology and \r\nthe global stocktake (Benjamin et al., 2018; Nand and Bardsley, 2020)."


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"Figure 15.5 |  Key risks in small islands. KR1 to KR8 are interconnected as shown by arrows, which causes risk accumulation leading to reduced island habitability. The main \r\ninterconnections are shown in this figure: for example, loss of marine and coastal and terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services (KR1 and KR3, respectively) are projected \r\nto cause the submergence of reef islands (KR2), water insecurity (KR4), destruction of settlements and infrastructure (KR5), degradation of human health and well-being (KR6), \r\neconomic decline and livelihood failure (KR7), and loss of cultural resources and heritage (KR8). Importantly, KRs result from both direct effects (e.g., decrease in rainfall will increase \r\nwater insecurity) and indirect effects (e.g., loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services will increase water insecurity, which will in turn cause the degradation of human \r\nhealth and well-being)."


id: 3efb990bbddbd033ba1043ddce938cc8
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"Figure 15.6 |  A comparison of the degree of confidence in the detection of observed impacts of climate change on tropical small islands with the degree \r\nof confidence in attribution to climate change drivers."


id: bb5081ad9c75c0e1252c8b2fc782ddb5
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"As Figure  15.6 shows, there is high confidence that climate change \r\ncauses changes in terrestrial ecosystems as well as coral reef \r\nbleaching through increases in SST and submergence and flooding of \r\ncoastal areas through SLR and increased wave height. With respect to \r\ncasualties, settlements and infrastructure loss and damage, as well as \r\neconomic and livelihood loss, although confidence in detection is high, \r\nthere is at present medium confidence in the attribution to climate \r\nchange. Medium confidence in attribution frequently arises owing to \r\nthe limited research available on small island environments."


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"protection infrastructure has been heavily invested, for example, in \r\nthe Caribbean region (Mycoo, 2014b) and Cuba (Mycoo, 2014a). A \r\nsimilar situation applies in many Indian Ocean islands, where coastal \r\nprotection strategies are manifested by hard shoreline structures, many \r\nof which are proving challenging to maintain (Naylor, 2015; Betzold \r\nand Mohamed, 2017; Magnan and Duvat, 2018). In the Pacific the \r\nsituation is different given that many islands have been occupied for \r\nmillennia by indigenous communities with extant knowledge for coping \r\nwith adversity (Granderson, 2017). The latter generally favours 'soft' \r\nshoreline structures for coastal protection although the building of \r\nseawalls has been rapid, especially in urban islands (Umeyama, 2012; \r\nDuvat, 2013; Magnan et al., 2018; Morris et al., 2018), and also in some \r\nrural islands (e.g., Tubuai, French Polynesia (Salmon et al., 2019))."


id: 54094be8e9f38376151c052b0d256136
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"Many rural communities have uncritically emulated structures in urban \r\ncontexts built and maintained with external finances. As a result, in \r\nmany Pacific SIDS, seawalls have collapsed without additional funding \r\navailable for repairs (Nunn and Kumar, 2018; Piggott-McKellar et al., \r\n2020; Nunn et al., 2021). Similar cases have been recorded along the \r\ncoast of Puerto Rico (Jackson et al., 2012) while on Indian Ocean islands \r\n(e.g., Seychelles), the shorelines are littered with broken seawalls and \r\ngroynes (Duvat, 2009). In Samoa, seawalls close to Apia need constant \r\ninvestments to remain viable."


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"Since AR5, small islands have experimented with new adaptation \r\noptions, which has increased the lessons learnt from on-the-ground \r\npractices in these settings. Figure 15.7 shows some of the adaptation \r\noptions that are being experimented with in small islands. This section \r\ncovers most common adaptation actions and approaches across \r\nsmall islands and assesses the many constraints, enablers and limits \r\nto adaptation. Adaptation also plays a key role in climate resilient \r\ndevelopment and the insights emerging from small islands on this \r\ntopic are discussed after the adaptation section."


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"On small islands, another widespread issue with seawalls and other \r\nhard shoreline structures is that they invariably shift problems of \r\nshoreline erosion and lowland inundation elsewhere (Donner and \r\nWebber, 2014). Even surrounding entire islands with such structures, \r\nas has happened on Male' (Maldives), is not a long-term solution \r\nbecause of incidences of localised seawall collapse that can spread \r\nquickly if not addressed immediately (Naylor, 2015). Hard structures "


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"Seawalls have been a popular coastal protection measure on islands \r\n(Figure 15.7). An analysis of National Communications shows that 28% \r\nof coastal protection actions are seawalls, followed by breakwater \r\nstructures and coastal protection units (Robinson, 2017a). Coastal "


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"Ocean tsunami has boosted island raising as part of the 'safe island \r\ndevelopment programme' (Shaig, 2008). Recent studies suggest that \r\nland and island raising have some potential in small islands, especially \r\nin urban high-value areas where this can generate substantial revenues \r\nthrough the sale or lease of new land, and therefore leverage public \r\nadaptation finance (Bisaro et al., 2019)."


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"for coastal protection will become increasingly ineffective in the future, \r\ndemonstrating the need for adaptation along most island coasts to \r\nbecome more transformative than has been the case over the past few \r\ndecades. In the Bahamas, it has been suggested that coastal protection \r\nstructures and strategies are implemented through 'a rather piecemeal \r\napproach of single projects and small patches, partially resulting in \r\nmaladaptation by further increasing processes of erosion' (Petzold \r\net  al., 2018, p. 95). In the village of Lalomalava, Samoa, national \r\nadaptation funding was spent on erecting a seawall to protect the \r\nvillage, but the wall was not long enough to protect the whole village, \r\nleading some families and properties to face increasing impacts from \r\nlarge waves (Crichton and Esteban, 2018)."


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"Migration, including planned resettlement, is increasingly occurring in \r\nsmall islands to intentionally respond to or prepare for climate change \r\nimpacts (Figure 15.7; Magnan et al., 2019). There is currently limited \r\nevidence and low agreement in the literature as to whether migration \r\nof various types is an effective strategy to adapt to localised impacts \r\nof climate change, as outcomes are highly context specific (Donner, \r\n2015; McNamara et al., 2016; Hermann and Kempf, 2017; McMichael \r\net al., 2019; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019a; Tabe, 2019; Bertana, 2020; \r\nWeir, 2020)."


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"yield better outcomes for coral health as forests stabilise soils and \r\nprevent erosion and sequester groundwater pollutants (limited to \r\nmedium evidence, high agreement) (Carlson et al., 2019). The success \r\nof protected areas is, however, undermined by weak governance due \r\nin part to limited financial resources which undermine management \r\nand the enforcement of regulations governing activity within them \r\n(Schleicher et al., 2019)."


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"(Campbell, 2014a). Policies which support migration for employment \r\nby the most vulnerable--those that may wish to migrate but lack the \r\nresources to do so--may offer an adaptive strategy to environmental \r\npressure, particularly where these incorporate adequate preparedness \r\nfor life in host communities (Luetz, 2017; Curtain and Dornan, 2019; \r\nDrinkall et al., 2019). Research from the Maldives suggests that women \r\nand men do not possess equal capacities to use mobility as a strategy \r\nto adapt to climate change, with women less able to employ migration \r\nas an adaptation strategy due to gender roles, social expectations, \r\neconomic structures, political laws and religious doctrines, and gender \r\nnorms and cultural practices (Lama, 2018)."


id: e53c049fefea707bb6c5b98b4b23b9a5
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"Forced relocation, involuntary displacement and low-agency migration \r\n(e.g., due to low migrant financial resources, or limited participation \r\nin migration planning) are commonly associated with unsuccessful \r\noutcomes and can therefore be considered an impact of climate change \r\nrather than an adaptation strategy (Weber, 2016a; Thomas and Benjamin, \r\n2017; Tabe, 2019). Resettlement of households, communities and larger \r\nisland populations is increasingly discussed in the context of losses and \r\ndamages when in situ adaptation limits are thought to be reached. \r\nLimited data and research relating to adaptation limits, transformational \r\nadaptation, tolerable and intolerable risk levels in small islands, and \r\nlimited ability to directly attribute climate change to migration decisions \r\n(in the context of both slow-onset changes and extreme events) mean \r\nthat policy applications are currently limited (Thomas and Benjamin, \r\n2018b; Handmer and Nalau, 2019; Nand and Bardsley, 2020)."


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created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Over the past decades, beach nourishment has been implemented in \r\nsmall islands either to reduce beach erosion (e.g., in tourist areas) or \r\nto protect critical human assets (e.g., roads) that are highly exposed to \r\nstorm waves. It has been increasingly used to maintain beaches in the \r\nislands of the Maldives (Shaig, 2011) and in Barbados (Mycoo, 2014b). \r\nHowever, islands have limited sand stocks, and sediment extraction \r\ncan aggravate risks and/or accelerate ecosystem degradation if \r\nimplemented without the necessary precautions."


id: 4879810045d9ba0884454b5c4097efe5
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"In designing and implementing EbA, IKLK have high relevance \r\nespecially amongst Pacific small islands as many communities are \r\nremote and still rely on ecosystems for their livelihoods (Nalau et al., \r\n2018b; Narayan et al., 2020). In Fiji, IKLK have informed EbA projects \r\nby identifying native species suitable for strengthening the coastal \r\nenvironment to reduce coastal erosion and flooding in the villages \r\n(Nalau et al., 2018b). Whole-of-island approaches, like Lomani Gau in \r\nthe Gau Island in Fiji, try to foster integrated management practices in \r\nsmall islands that are based on shared governance of resources and \r\non understanding the interlinkages between sectors and ecosystems \r\n(Remling and Veitayaki, 2016). In the Caribbean, EbA approaches \r\nare somewhat absent in national and regional programmes and \r\nplans, yet at the local scale EbA strategies are used increasingly with \r\nimplementation mostly led by NGOs (Mercer et al., 2012)."


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"EbA approaches have many benefits but also face several challenges \r\nand limits. Biophysical limits can make some EbA and nature-based \r\nsolutions ineffective: coral reefs are unlikely to withstand increased \r\ntemperatures, reducing the effectiveness of coral reef-based EbA \r\noptions under higher temperature scenarios (Barkdull and Harris, \r\n2018; Cornwall et al., 2021). Likewise, many other coastal and marine \r\necosystems, such as mangroves, face severe limitations with increasing \r\nsea levels and other climate impacts (Morris et al., 2018; Thomas et al., \r\n2021)."


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"Additionally, some islands are constructing climate-smart development \r\nplans such as improved management of existing and newly established \r\nprotected areas, restoration of riparian zones, urban forests/trees, \r\nsub-urban and peri-urban home gardens, and improved agroforestry \r\npractices towards increasing resilience to changing climate conditions, \r\nwildfires as well as decreasing food insecurity (e.g., Pedersen et al., \r\n2016; McLeod et  al., 2019). Paired terrestrial and marine protected \r\nareas (MPAs) have shown that forest conservation and rehabilitation "


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"While CBA approaches to adaptation projects can increase community \r\nownership and commitment to project implementation, these can \r\nalso face challenges. In Pele Island, Vanuatu, implementation of CBA \r\nprojects has experienced significant failures due to elite capture of \r\nproject management, internal power dynamics within communities, \r\nand different priorities of communities living across the island that \r\nwere supposed to be all responsible for implementing whole-of\u0002island projects (Buggy and McNamara, 2016). Similarly, in Samoa, \r\nconsultations with community leaders led to the misplacement of a \r\nrevetment wall that increased flooding in the area against engineering \r\nadvice (McGinn, 2020). Also, community scale might not always be the \r\nbest fit if the best scale to leverage adaptation is across catchment \r\nor whole-of-island scale (Buggy and McNamara, 2016; Remling and \r\nVeitayaki, 2016)."


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"Given changes in climatic conditions, in Puerto Rico women in the coffee \r\nindustry are now forming their own 'micro-clusters' of complementary \r\nactivities, such as rebuilding of public spaces, running environmental \r\neducation programmes for children, and opening new commercial \r\nenterprises (e.g., coffee shops, and food products) that do not rely on \r\ntraditional coffee supply chains or government assistance (Borges\u0002Mendez and Caron, 2019). Such alternative livelihood strategies parallel \r\nthose undertaken by Pacific women working on various local-level \r\nclimate change adaptation and environmental projects throughout \r\nsmall island nations of the Pacific. Women report testing and using \r\nadaptive strategies informed by IKLK, but which are being modified to \r\nsuit the changing environmental conditions they are encountering and "


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"Communities across small islands are adapting to the impacts of climate \r\nchange across a range of livelihood activities. Coastal fishers have \r\nadapted by employing several activities ranging from diversification \r\nof livelihoods to changing fishing grounds and considering weather \r\ninsurance (Blair and Momtaz, 2018; Lemahieu et  al., 2018; Karlsson \r\nand McLean, 2020; Turner et  al., 2020). In Antigua and Vanuatu, "


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"those projected in the future. This includes harvesting rainwater during \r\ndroughts, planting native plants along coastlines to prevent erosion \r\nand flooding, developing plant nurseries, experimenting with growing \r\nsalt-tolerant (taro) crops, and relocating crop cultivation inland (McLeod \r\net al., 2018)."


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"Disaster risk management investments in small islands are commonly \r\nframed as reducing climate change-driven risk and contributing \r\nto sustainable development (Johnston, 2014; Mercer et  al., 2014a; \r\nKuruppu and Willie, 2015). Examples include strengthening the capacity \r\nof National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS ) to deliver \r\neffective (WMO et al., 2018); nurturing community-based disaster risk \r\nmanagement to build social capital (Blackburn, 2014; McNaught et al., \r\n2014; Gero et al., 2015; Handmer and Iveson, 2017; Chacowry et al., \r\n2018; De Souza and Clarke, 2018; Currenti et  al., 2019; Cvitanovic \r\net al., 2019; Hagedoorn et al., 2019), as well as processes that integrate \r\nIKLK with science (Hiwasaki et al., 2014; Carby, 2015; Bryant-Tokalau, \r\n2018a; CANARI, 2019)."


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"The tourism sector is increasingly a major source of cash-based \r\nlivelihoods across small islands. Despite the high vulnerability and \r\nsensitivity of island tourism to climate change at a national scale (Scott \r\net al., 2019), there is evidence from the South Pacific that local tourism \r\noperators' adaptive capacity is high due to sociocultural factors. In \r\nSamoa, adaptive capacity consists of accommodation providers' \r\nsocial networks, resources, past experiences and understanding of \r\nenvironmental conditions, and remittances as a form of informal \r\ninsurance (Parsons et al., 2017). The adaptive capacity of Tongan tour \r\noperators is strengthened by high awareness of climate change, strong \r\nsocial networks and remittances as well as perceived high resilience \r\nagainst climate change (van der Veeken et al., 2016)."


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"Table 15.6 |  Adaptation options per key risk in small islands. This table summarises risk-oriented adaptation options, their level of implementation, enablers and effectiveness in \r\nreducing exposure and vulnerability, co-benefits and disbenefits in small islands. For KR2 (submergence of reef islands), not included, adaptation options are the same as for KR5."


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"Studies from the Caribbean (Dookie et al., 2019; Mahon et al., 2019) \r\nand Indian Ocean (Hermes et  al., 2019), have found that NMHSs \r\nand regional intergovernmental bodies face capacity challenges in \r\ntranslation, transfer and facilitation of the use of climate information \r\nto various end user groups. In many small island contexts a gap \r\nremains between investments in data quality and information services \r\nand uptake and use in risk reduction by policy and decision makers \r\n(Dookie et  al., 2019). Bringing policy makers and users together to \r\nguide investments in climate information services is recommended, \r\nas is provision of dedicated resources to develop applicable tools and \r\nproducts that turn data and information services into risk reduction \r\nmeasures (Dookie et al., 2019; Haines, 2019)."


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"Many of the outlined KRs (Section 15.3.4.9) can be addressed through \r\nthe variety of adaptation options outlined in the previous sections \r\nin the context of small islands (Table  15.6, Supplementary Material \r\n15.1). Whereas some of these adaptation options are widespread (e.g., \r\nhard protection, reforestation or the creation of MPAs), others (e.g., \r\naccommodation, health awareness raising and training) have been \r\nlittle experimented with to date in small island contexts. Although most \r\nof these adaptation options provide diversified co-benefits to small \r\nisland communities, there is still limited evidence with regard to their \r\neffectiveness in reducing climate change impacts. While some of them \r\nrespond directly to a KR or a number of KRs (Table 15.6), others can be \r\nunderstood as overarching options that, for example, build adaptive \r\ncapacity of communities and organisations and enable these actors to \r\nrespond to a variety of KRs in an effective manner (see SM15.1)."


id: 638370aa739aab5f601efe46dec502c6
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"Since AR5, more literature has emerged on barriers, limits and enablers \r\nto climate change adaptation across small islands. Here, we cover \r\nbarriers, limits and enablers as they relate to key themes across small \r\nislands and adaptation."


id: 39746b0ac0b040825b03d549f4766fe1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Low technical capacity and poor data availability and quality are \r\nreported as limiting adaptation in Caribbean small islands such as \r\nDominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines (Smith and Rhiney, 2016; \r\nRobinson, 2018a) and Trinidad and Tobago (Mycoo, 2020). These \r\nfactors are, however, secondary to the lack of finances, which is seen \r\nas a fundamental limit (Charan et al., 2017; Robinson, 2018a; Williams \r\net  al., 2020). This was also reported in the Seychelles, despite its \r\nsuccess with innovative financing streams and being a leader in the \r\nIndian Ocean in this regard (Robinson, 2018a)."


id: d5e8c4c4d3f2ff21cd9f1e6cc2d5b72f
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"facilities; and developing emergency plans. For example, rainfall is \r\nthe best environmental predictor of malaria in North Guadalcanal, \r\nSolomon Islands, leading to the development of an early warning tool \r\nthat could increase resilience to climate change (Smith et  al., 2017; \r\nJeanne et al., 2018)."


id: e05bbe3d2b2724f0dd7048416435984c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Many major healthcare facilities in small island states are in exposed \r\ncoastal areas and have limited ability to provide health services \r\nduring disasters when services are most needed (WHO, 2018). For \r\nexample, in Vanuatu, TC Pam in 2015 severely damaged two hospitals, \r\n19 healthcare centres, and 50 healthcare dispensaries in 22 affected \r\nislands (Kim et al., 2015). A Smart Hospital Initiative in the Caribbean \r\nfocuses on improving hospital resilience, strengthening structures \r\nand operations, and installing green technologies to reduce energy \r\nconsumption and provide energy autonomy during extreme events \r\nand disasters (https://www.paho.org/en/health-emergencies/smart\u0002hospitals)."


id: 58e3291c36fe746f01d67dc930dd60e1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In the majority of SIDS there is a high dependence on international \r\nfinancing to support adaptation to slow- and rapid-onset events \r\n(Robinson and Dornan, 2017; Petzold and Magnan, 2019). However, \r\nfunds tend to be geared towards supporting sectoral-level adaptation \r\ninitiatives for vulnerable natural resource sectors such as water, \r\nbiodiversity and coastal zones (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015). Considering \r\nlow-income small islands such as Comoros, Haiti, and Sao Tome and \r\nPrincipe, international modalities do little to address the root causes \r\nof vulnerability or to support system-wide transformations (Kuruppu \r\nand Willie, 2015). Although countries like Trinidad and Tobago have \r\namassed oil wealth, the profits are not invested in a way that benefits \r\nenvironmental goals (Middelbeek et al., 2014). In Mauritius, a lack of \r\nfinancial resources for climate change adaptation has been recognised \r\nas a specific impediment at the district council level (Williams et al., \r\n2020)."


id: 859d8fd809aad87d54a55fb1f54509d3
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"assets via adaptation finance investments could reduce vulnerability \r\nacross the community. This could function as an effective livelihood\u0002based adaptation strategy for the most vulnerable such as women, \r\nwho are part-time employed and in peripheral roles in the fishing \r\nindustry (Baptiste and Kinlocke, 2016). In Belize and the Dominican \r\nRepublic, many coastal fishers, for example, use informal credit from \r\nfood stores or captains to enable them to withstand financial losses \r\nthat are often incurred during bad weather and extreme events \r\n(Karlsson and McLean, 2020)."


id: 1153be759106330061c01b69a0fe6777
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In Old Harbour Bay, Jamaica's largest fishing village, a high number \r\nof community members engaged in the fishing industry, particularly \r\nvendors and scalers, do not own the material assets needed to fully \r\nbenefit from these livelihood activities (Baptiste and Kinlocke, 2016). \r\nDeveloping a broader asset portfolio by increasing access to such "


id: 62fdc6225e69ed4e551998f5b446f19
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"A significant barrier to effective climate adaptation is the lack of \r\neducation and awareness around climate change both among the \r\ngeneral public, for example, in the Bahamas (Petzold et al., 2018) and \r\namong decision makers in the more remote rural communities (Nunn, "


id: 9761ee299b001408fae875487cdd0f72
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"among small islanders (Middelbeek et al., 2014; Betzold, 2015; Petzold \r\net al., 2018), others indicate that many Caribbean islanders are acutely \r\naware of past storm events (i.e., social memory) and have a certain \r\ndegree of self-reliance, which creates the capability to multitask and \r\ncope with limited resources (Petzold and Magnan, 2019). There is, \r\nhowever, a disconnect between knowledge, attitudes and practices--\r\nknowledge sharing and learning need to be improved along with the \r\ntake-up of an evidence-based decision-making approach (Lashley and \r\nWarner, 2013; Petzold et al., 2018; Saxena et al., 2018)."


id: 22ab8c47718aa523bc0004763e988934
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"2013; Mycoo, 2015). Increasing knowledge on adaptation options \r\nand needs can increase adaptive capacity that is underpinned by 'the \r\nability of individuals to access, understand and apply the knowledge \r\nneeded to inform their decision-making processes' (Cvitanovic et al., \r\n2016 p. 54). This should, however, also be seen as a collective effort \r\n(Hayward et al., 2019)."


id: a4b96f5dc2c381b4d752794fda60383
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"The Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation tool has been \r\ndeveloped to assist the tourism industry in producing 'climate\u0002sensitive developments' (Mackay and Spencer, 2017, p. 55). Although \r\nsome authors conclude on the low climate awareness/understanding "


id: 42bb4b03b2766f6e51a851844f052fb7
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"projects and strategies, which allow for culturally situated knowledge, \r\nvalues and practices to be positioned at the heart of sustainable climate \r\nchange adaptation (high agreement) (Chambers et al., 2017; Plotz et al., \r\n2017; Beckford, 2018; Malsale et al., 2018; Parsons et al., 2018; Suliman \r\net al., 2019). In the Caribbean context, Beckford (2018) suggests the \r\nestablishment of the Caribbean Local and Traditional Knowledge \r\nNetwork, a shared regional platform, makes IKLK more available \r\nfor climate adaptation and community resilience projects where \r\nappropriate. Likewise, indigenous research methodologies are emerging \r\nthat introduce more culturally grounded concepts and methods into \r\nhow research is conducted and that decolonise mainstream research in \r\nthe Pacific Islands (Suaalii-Sauni and Fulu-Aiolupotea, 2014)."


id: 4efda39777b3c9738b2607c400e43c58
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In Kiribati, communities often use different timescales to evaluate the \r\nneed for adaptation. I-Kiribati culture's core concept of time is short \r\nterm and medium term (Prance, 2015), which should be considered in \r\nadaptation policy and planning processes especially at the household \r\nand community level (Donner and Webber, 2014). Key stakeholders, \r\nespecially community leaders, should be included and empowered to \r\nhelp design and sustain adaptation (Baldacchino, 2018; Weiler et al., \r\n2018). Focusing on values-as-relations (e.g., island communities' \r\nrelationship with the environment and each other) could diversify the \r\nvalues considered in adaptation decision-making processes (Parsons \r\nand Nalau, 2019). Indeed, those Pacific islands with a more island\u0002centric approach to climate adaptation tend to have overall more \r\nsuccessful adaptation policies in place (Schwebel, 2017)."


id: ea4beab936ba4862e485e438a292fcfe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Synergies exist between climate resilient development pathways \r\nand implementation of SDGs in small islands because development \r\ndecisions and outcomes are strengthened by consideration of climate \r\nand disaster risk (Robinson, 2017b; Hay et  al., 2019a). However, \r\nmonitoring progress of SDGs is challenging for small islands, in part \r\ndue to large numbers of indicators and inadequate data. Literature \r\non SDG implementation is generally lacking for small islands as is the \r\nintegration of climate risk into infrastructure decisions."


id: 579bad81d7cbd7d82f85571f6bcec759
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content:
"Decisions that are optimal for adaptation may not be acceptable in \r\nthe wider development context within which they operate. In the \r\nPacific region, where 67% of infrastructure is located within 500 m \r\nof coastline, commercial, public and industrial infrastructures are \r\nparticularly vulnerable due to the location of urban centres (Kumar "


id: ddbfd55a168346cb0ac530d215295560
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"in rapid responses to COVID-19 (Hambleton et al., 2020). Many small \r\nislands are highly dependent on tourism for their economies and are \r\nfacing worsening crises associated with climate-related disasters \r\nand more recently COVID-19 disruptions of travel (Sheller, 2020). \r\nThe adaptive capacity and innovations demonstrated by SIDS during \r\nCOVID-19, moving beyond dependence on 'extractive' international \r\ntourism, demonstrate the potential benefits of diversified and \r\nsustainable economies (and ecologies) for the enhanced resilience of \r\nboth human and ecological communities (Sheller, 2020)."


id: c860fa92a2ee17b5c7d41e5a1b676f0
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content:
"and Taylor, 2015). Yet the Parliamentary Complex in Samoa was \r\nredeveloped at the original site owing to cultural and historical factors \r\ndespite strong evidence of the need to relocate (Hay et al., 2019b)."


id: d4f5874a9eb4c0e0915a225140fb487e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Energy transitions in the Pacific islands demonstrate development \r\nsynergies such as reduced dependency on volatile fossil fuel markets, \r\nincreased resilience to weather-related disasters and less need for \r\ninvestment in large-scale centralised energy systems (Dornan, 2014; \r\nCole and Banks, 2017; Weir, 2018; Weir and Kumar, 2020). However, \r\nhigh and rapid energy transition ambitions can lead to trade-offs for \r\nrural electrification (Box 18.4; Dornan, 2014; Cole and Banks, 2017; \r\nHills et al., 2018)."


id: 4309bd1b48dd78b6317b38ce898895fb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Tourism system transitions can enable the sector to contribute to \r\nclimate resilient development pathways through managing climate \r\nrisks and improving ecological, economic and social outcomes for small \r\nislands (medium evidence, high agreement) (Loehr, 2019; Mahadew \r\nand Appadoo, 2019; Loehr et al., 2020; Sheller, 2020)."


id: 8cc41f7810940910663814dc7981f573
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"There is a clear role for local governments to work closely with the \r\ninformal private sector to achieve a 'trifecta' of climate change \r\nadaptation, economic development and DRR, especially for women \r\n(McNamara et al., 2020). Yet, many cities and local governments in the \r\nPacific region are severely resource constrained (Kelman, 2014; Kiddle \r\net al., 2017; Keen and Connell, 2019; Nunn and McNamara, 2019)."


id: ffcf3beefe920cd54feaad916c3c5b40
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Broader innovation in climate resilient development policy-making has \r\ntaken place in the Pacific (Hay et al., 2019a) and Caribbean (Mycoo, \r\n2018a). The Pacific region is bringing together DRM, low carbon \r\ngrowth and climate change adaptation with broader development \r\nefforts for the first time (SPC, 2016). Improvements in cross-sectoral \r\nand cross-agency coordination are creating opportunities for improved \r\ndisaster preparedness and resilience measures in small islands \r\n(Webb et al., 2015; Nalau et al., 2016). Further integration between \r\ndevelopment priorities and risk management in national budgetary \r\nand development processes is necessary, as is continued investment in \r\ncoordination mechanisms (Hay et al., 2019a)."


id: dc8f70dcbaec990c39ac2ad193859d19
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"Despite intensive study, many knowledge gaps remain due to the \r\ncomplexity of biophysical and social interactions as well as the local \r\nand regional diversity of small islands. Research and data gaps exist \r\nin four areas: island-scale data availability; ecosystem services data; \r\nvulnerability and resilience, and adaptation (Table 15.8)."


id: d2fb324fc82fe211fa274172aa14f921
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"FAQ 15.1 | How is climate change affecting nature and human life on small islands, and will further climate chang\r\nresult in some small islands becoming uninhabitable for humans in the near future?"


id: d7c608f96bf351ecee8250e5d357f0c5
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"Climate change has already affected and will increasingly affect biodiversity, nature's benefits for people, settlements, infrastructure, livelihoods \r\nand economies on small islands. In the absence of ambitious human intervention to reduce emissions, climate change impacts are likely to make \r\nsome small islands uninhabitable in the second part of the 21st century. By protecting and restoring nature in and around small islands as well \r\nas implementing anticipatory adaptation responses, humans can help reduce future risks to ecosystems and human lives on most small islands."


id: 38562917490318a44a4eae0ba5e4bfb0
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"The expected increased risk of such impacts under further climate change is significant. For example, some low-lying \r\nislands and areas may be extensively flooded at every high tide or during storms. As a result, their freshwater supplies \r\nand soils would be repeatedly contaminated by saltwater, with adverse cascading consequences for freshwater and "


id: 65bc423d5f789552a6d46f9b4c167004
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The intensity and timing of such impacts will be more severe under high warming futures compared to low warming \r\nfutures accompanied by ambitious adaptation. Tailored, desirable and locally owned adaptation responses that \r\nincorporate both short- and long-term time horizons would certainly help to reduce future risks to nature and \r\nhuman life in small islands. Among the short-term measures frequently employed to address SLR and flooding are \r\nseawalls. Long-term measures include ecosystem-based adaptation such as mangrove replanting, relocation of \r\ncoastal villages to upland sites, creation of elevated land through reclamation, revised building codes as part of a \r\nbroader DRR strategy, shifting to alternative livelihoods and changes in farming and fishing practices."


id: 92bf90816948ea773a8b28d093008da2
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"Faced with rising sea levels and storm surges along their coastal areas which have significantly threatened people's safety, buildings, \r\ninfrastructure and livelihoods, small island communities have already embarked on the use of different adaptation strategies. These include \r\nreactive adaptation, which deals with short-term measures, and anticipatory adaptation, which takes action in advance to lessen climate \r\nchange impacts in the long run. Reactive measures have not always proven to be effective. By contrast, anticipatory measures hold much \r\npromise for future adaptation."


id: 49af755d6e833fcfe469f382edd9fd98
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"The majority of people living on small islands occupy coasts, and thus the most widespread threats to people's \r\nlivelihoods are those from SLR, shoreline erosion, increased lowland flooding, and salinisation of groundwater and \r\nsoil. Humans can either adapt reactively or anticipate coming changes and prepare for them. Given the diversity of \r\nsmall islands across the world, and their capacities to adapt, there is no single solution that fits all contexts."


id: 8386a127c92e0daa382ed235fe6731bb
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content:
"Coastal livelihoods in particular are already affected by climate impacts. Coastal fishers have adapted to these \r\nchanges in environmental conditions by diversifying livelihoods, expanding aquaculture production, considering \r\nweather insurance, building social networks to cope with reduced catches and availability during extreme storms, \r\nswitching fishing grounds, and changing target species. Similarly, farmers have diversified livelihoods to more cash\u0002and service-based activities such as tourism, changed plant species that thrive better in altered conditions, and \r\nshifted planting seasons according to changes in climate."


id: a4ea172d331723152b6cf7ed9d208fd9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"A typical reactive adaptation along small island coasts involves the construction of hard impermeable structures \r\nsuch as seawalls to stop the encroachment of the sea. Yet such structures, especially along rural island coasts, \r\noften fail to prevent flooding during extreme sea levels or extreme-wave impacts, and can inadvertently damage \r\nnearshore ecosystems such as mangroves and beaches. In the Caribbean, Indian Ocean islands and some Pacific \r\nislands, there are numerous examples of coastal engineering structures that have been destroyed already or are in \r\ngrave danger from the encroaching sea. In many instances, citizens and governments are unable to access external \r\nadvice or funding, communities have built such structures without assistance or knowledge of expected future SLR."


id: 77b71f70b2198cbe750e713b6645bb7a
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"By contrast, anticipatory adaptation, which anticipates expected future impacts and acts in advance, requires a \r\nlonger-term view as well as some understanding of future climate-change impacts in particular contexts. Along \r\nsmall island coasts, anticipatory adaptation typically involves recognising that sea level will continue rising and \r\nthat problems currently experienced will be amplified in the future. One strategy for anticipatory adaptation in \r\nresponse to SLR and flooding is relocation, which is the movement of coastal communities away from vulnerable "


id: 1e2a9645c1c02742c905297cc1110a4d
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"(coastal-fringe) locations to sites that are further inland. Coastal setback policies have been applied to hotels in \r\nsome islands such as Barbados. In coastal locations where the risks of rising sea level, flooding and erosion are very \r\nhigh and cannot effectively be reduced, 'retreat' from the shoreline is the only way to eliminate or reduce such risks."


id: 13f68a2ef18c8aef09de4391e105c3ae
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"Anticipatory adaptation has been aligned with DRR in some small islands. For example, Jamaica adopted such an \r\napproach in relocating three communities. Recognising that a proactive approach is needed, Jamaica developed a \r\nResettlement Policy Framework aligned with the National Development Plan and based on vulnerability assessments \r\nof communities at risk of climate change and disaster risk. A resettlement action plan was developed for the \r\nHarbour Heights community using community engagement to design successful planned relocation. In some islands \r\nrevised building codes are implemented as an anticipatory adaptation measure. As part of the build-back-better \r\nstrategy hurricane resistant roofs are being built to cope with strong winds associated with tropical cyclones."


id: 4172fc207e3324c0b3fcc4cb9812c5f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"a: In many places today, coastal communities which have been established for hundreds of years are being more regularly inundated than ever before as a result \r\nof rising sea level."


id: af8d4a973b2ef161fa955fcd3e9cb765
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Agriculture and fisheries are heavily influenced by climate, which means a change in occurrence of TCs, air temperature, ocean temperature \r\nand/or rainfall can have considerable impacts on the production and availability of crops and seafood and therefore the health and welfare of \r\nisland inhabitants. Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries in some cases will enhance productivity, but in many cases \r\ncould undermine food production, greatly exacerbating food insecurity challenges for human populations in small islands."


id: 93a01d5b25c8984953b1925a66382c0b
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"Small islands mostly depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is likely to be affected in various ways by climate change, \r\nincluding loss of agricultural land through floods and droughts, and contamination of freshwater and soil through \r\nsalt-water intrusion, warming temperatures leading to stresses of crops, and extreme events such as cyclones. In \r\nsome islands, crops that have been traditionally part of people's diet can no longer be cultivated due to such \r\nchanges. For example, severe rainfall during planting seasons can damage seedlings, reduce growth and provide \r\nconditions that promote plant pests and diseases."


id: 38ee9b17d787b5268b46efceedfbe0f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"The continuous reduction of soil fertility as well as increasing incidences of pests, diseases and invasive species \r\ncontribute to the growing vulnerability of the agricultural systems on small islands. Higher temperatures could \r\nincrease the presence of food- or water-borne diseases and the challenge of managing food safety. Changes \r\nin weather patterns can also disrupt food transportation and distribution systems on islands where indigenous \r\ncommunities are often located in remote areas."


id: f35d9c9ceff256c5f81a9907a4849316
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 35798
content:
"Impacts of climate change on fisheries in small islands result from ocean temperature change, SLR, extreme weather \r\npatterns such as cyclones, reducing ocean oxygen concentrations and ocean acidification. These combined pressures \r\nare leading to the widespread loss or damage to marine habitats such as coral reefs but also mangroves and seagrass \r\nbeds and consequently of important fish species that depend on these habitats and are crucial both to the food \r\nsecurity (a high proportion of dietary protein is derived from seafood) and incomes of island communities. Shifting \r\nocean currents and warming waters are also changing the distribution of pelagic fish stocks, especially of open-water \r\ntuna, with further consequences for both local food security and national economies, where they are often highly \r\ndependent on income from fishing licenses (e.g., 98% of GDP in Tokelau, 66% of national income in Kiribati)."


id: 26216ac8ae6074da5b038ca2c93d485d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Climate change is projected to have profound effects on the future status and distribution of coastal and oceanic \r\nhabitats, and consequently of the fish and invertebrates they support. High water temperature causes changes in \r\nthe growth rate of fish species as well as the timing of spawning and migration patterns, with consequences for "


id: e23ca44274b93e4ac817db3be7aaa1fc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"fisheries catch potential. Some small island countries and territories are projected to experience more than 50% \r\ndeclines in fishery catches by 2100. Other small islands such as Easter Island (Chile), Pitcairn Islands (UK), Bermuda, \r\nand Cabo Verde may actually witness increases in catch potential under certain climate scenarios. Food shortages \r\nare often apparent in small islands, following the passage of catastrophic TCs. Access to pelagic fisheries can help \r\nto alleviate immediate food insecurity pressures in some circumstances, whereas aquaculture (fish farming) is being \r\nviewed as a longer-term means of diversifying incomes and enhancing resilience in many Caribbean and Pacific \r\nislands."


id: 3b360781062349e70d4a5fafdcae844a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Leads: Mark John Costello (New Zealand/Ireland/Norway), Mariana M. \r\nVale (Brazil)"


id: a8e70e1feec861b059d05b63a3630e4a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 24101
content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Heath Beckett (South Africa), Will Darwall \r\n(UK), Anindita Debnath (India), Eleanor Devenish-Nelson (UK), Yimnang Golbuu (Palau), Kerry\u0002Anne Grey (South Africa), Tamlin Jefferson (New Zealand/UK), Rhosanna Jenkins (UK), Adam \r\nKocsis (Germany/Hungary), Stella Manes (Brazil), Guy Midgley (South Africa), David Schoeman \r\n(Australia), Pablo A. Tedesco (France)"


id: e403a722205761061e6e895fb6674d07
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Costello, M.J., M.M. Vale, W. Kiessling, S. Maharaj, J. Price, and G.H. Talukdar, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity \r\nHotspots. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the \r\nSixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, \r\nE.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. \r\nCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2123-2161, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.018."


id: 49bd33ea859acef238c1e5d8cc8e3b61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"endemic species than other native species (high confidence). For these \r\nendemic species, considering all scenarios and time periods evaluated, \r\n~100% on islands, ~84% on mountains, ~12% on continents (medium \r\nconfidence) and ~54% in the ocean (notably the Mediterranean) (low \r\nconfidence) are projected to be threatened with extinction due to \r\nclimate change. With further warming, increasingly high risks of local \r\nand global extinctions are projected in biodiversity hotspots from \r\nclimate-related stressors (high confidence). {CCP1.2.1; Figure CCP1.7; \r\nFigure CCP1.6}"


id: 12d52a9cac53dcdea35eb8561367e9b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Geographic areas that are exceptionally rich in species, ecologically \r\ndistinct and/or show high endemism (species occurring in that \r\ndefined geographic area and nowhere else) are broadly recognised \r\nas biodiversity hotspots and prioritised for conservation. Here, we \r\nassess the impacts and vulnerability to climate change of terrestrial, \r\nfreshwater and marine regions considered to be biodiversity hotspots. \r\n{CCP1.1}"


id: 2264b52f8efe1655069b798a93a2a7e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 2860
content:
"Species in biodiversity hotspots already show changes in \r\nresponse to climate change (high confidence1\r\n). The geographic \r\nranges of the animal and plant species assessed have shifted from low \r\nto high latitudes in response to climate warming on land and in the \r\nocean (very high confidence). On land, climate change-induced shifts \r\ntowards higher elevations are also common in biodiversity hotspots \r\n(high confidence); while, in the ocean, climate-induced shifts to greater \r\nwater depths are little studied. In the ocean, abrupt mortality of habitat\u0002forming species on coral reefs and kelp forests, especially following \r\nheatwaves, are increasing in frequency in biodiversity hotspots (high \r\nconfidence). {CCP1.2.1; 1.2.2; 1.2.4}"


id: b69c6696d8ee02bdfa9b556d2be05ee4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Adaptation options can enhance the persistence of biodiversity in \r\nhotspots (high confidence). Noting that over 3 billion people live within \r\nbiodiversity hotspots, reduction of existing (non-climatic) pressures due \r\nto human activities is critical for building resilience within hotspots. \r\nAdaptation options for biodiversity (e.g., expanding fully protected \r\nareas, restoration and sustainable use practices) are as applicable \r\ninside biodiversity hotspots as outside (high confidence). Nevertheless, \r\nthe protection of biodiversity hotspots is key to preventing a substantial \r\nglobal biodiversity decline from climate change. {CCP1.3; 2.6; 3.6; \r\nTable CCP1.2; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2}."


id: 1338ffdb1eeef6647964e9c0c825c83d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"All biodiversity hotspots are impacted, to differing degrees, by \r\nhuman activities (very high confidence). Climate change impacts \r\nare compounded by other anthropogenic impacts. These include \r\nhabitat loss and fragmentation, hunting, fishing and its bycatch, over\u0002exploitation, water abstraction, nutrient enrichment, pollution, human \r\nintroduction of invasive species, pests and diseases. All of these reduce \r\nclimate resilience (very high confidence), complicating the attribution \r\nof observed changes to climate change. {CCP1.2.1}"


id: 5e34bb440edb7fa950e37b1092d0c966
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Observed climate velocities are approximately 20% lower \r\ninside than outside of terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity \r\nhotspots, but 69% higher inside than outside marine hotspots \r\n(high confidence). In spite of the lower climate velocities inside \r\nterrestrial hotspots, these areas are not projected to serve as effective \r\nclimate refugia from the effects of global warming, especially for \r\nendemic species (unique to a hotspot) (medium confidence). The \r\ngreater climate velocities inside marine hotspots exposes their species \r\nto greater climate-induced pressures inside than outside hotspots (high \r\nconfidence). The differences between temperatures inside and outside \r\nof hotspots narrow with increasing warming (medium confidence). \r\n{CCP1.2.2}"


id: 27179be058c8016b812abc14b82a038f
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"The risk of species extinction increases with warming in \r\nall climate change projections for native species studied in \r\nhotspots (high confidence), being about 10-times greater for \r\nendemic species from 1.5degC to 3degC above pre-industrial levels \r\n(medium confidence). Of the 6116 projections for more than 2700 \r\nspecies assessed in biodiversity hotspots, ~44% were found to be \r\nat high extinction risk, and ~24% at very high extinction risk due \r\nto climate change (medium confidence). Very high extinction risk \r\nin biodiversity hotspots due to climate change is more common for "


id: c7414523db4eec175cacc45a4f783d75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Specific hotspot numbers (H) are indicated in this chapter text to aid \r\ntheir identification in Table CCP1.1 and Figures CCP1.1 and CCP1.2."


id: a91b2224d0a5bac17b273b3a1d10a920
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 24130
content:
"Biodiversity hotspots are geographic areas with an exceptionally \r\nhigh richness of species, including rare and endemic species. Such \r\nhotspots have deep evolutionary roots and are concentrated in areas \r\nwhere past climatic variability was moderate (Enquist et  al., 2019; \r\nBrown et al., 2020; Trew and Maclean, 2021). An important limitation \r\nof the biodiversity hotspot concept is that there may be species \r\nhighly threatened with extinction that do not occur within what has \r\ntraditionally been classified as a hotspot (Grenyer et al., 2006). Thus, \r\nbiodiversity hotspot assessments need to be paralleled by assessments \r\nof highly endangered species, and the threats they face."


id: ff2ebff3ed0253d978cde455135405f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Terrestrial and freshwater hotspots have been warming less over the \r\nlast 50 years than non-hotspot areas, whereas marine hotspots have \r\nbeen warming more (Kocsis et al., 2021). The warming inside terrestrial \r\nhotspots is 0.91degC (Myers) and 1.04degC (G200), respectively, while for \r\nfreshwater hotspots it is 0.89degC, compared to 1.08degC warming outside \r\n(Kocsis et al., 2021). In contrast, mean annual sea surface temperatures \r\nin the G200 marine biodiversity hotspots have warmed 41% more than \r\nthe regions outside (0.53degC compared with 0.38degC) (Kocsis et al., 2021). \r\nThus, terrestrial biodiversity hotspots have been warming slightly less, \r\nand marine hotspots considerably more than non-hotspots (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 1fe3f1e7a44e98590f8035dacc711c77
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"Climate velocity, the direction and pace of movement in climate \r\nvariables (typically temperature) in space, is key to understanding the \r\norigin and fate of biodiversity hotspots under climate change (Loarie \r\net al., 2009; Burrows et al., 2011). Climate trajectories generally predict \r\nthe direction and pace of past and future species range shifts (Pinsky \r\net al., 2013; Brito-Morales et al., 2018), although there are exceptions \r\n(Fuchs et  al., 2020). Spatial patterns of climate trajectories show \r\nregions where species are expected to leave, pass through, and/or \r\narrive under climate change (Burrows et al., 2014). Regions of high \r\nclimate velocities are those with low topographic relief on land, \r\nparticularly flooded grasslands and deserts (Loarie et al., 2009), and \r\ntropical as well as offshore and polar sea regions (Burrows et al., 2011; \r\nBurrows et al., 2014; Garcia Molinos et al., 2016; Brito-Morales et al., \r\n2018; Brito-Morales et al., 2020)."


id: a675e013d23417c3af7fccc474b28101
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"Biodiversity hotspots were not explicitly covered in the Working Group \r\nII (WGII) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2014) (hereafter AR5). Thus, \r\nthe point of departure is WGII AR4 (IPCC, 2007), which assessed that \r\nclimate change exacerbates biodiversity risks in hotspots and that 15-\r\n40% of endemic species (species only occurring in one region) were \r\nprojected to become extinct at 3.5degC global warming (Fischlin et al., \r\n2007). Risks of extinction are assessed using the guidelines in Chapter \r\n2, with species projected to lose 80% of their range or abundance \r\nbeing classified as at very high risk of extinction and those projected \r\nto lose 50% being at high risk of extinction (Figure 2.8 for definitions \r\nand a global overview)."


id: c4dcc4e9a452897707d0c8caa0c76292
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"On millennial time scales, some areas of low climate velocity have \r\nmore endemic species and can be considered climate refugia, at least \r\non land (Sandel et al., 2011) and, for marine species, around Antarctica \r\n(H213) (Costello et  al., 2010). This suggests that, if these areas are \r\nsubject to increased velocities, they will lose species that are not \r\nable to disperse fast enough to cope with the pace of climate change \r\n(medium confidence) (Sandel et al., 2011; Brito-Morales et al., 2018)."


id: 3db90cbcbdaaac65c6d31b4e014e0ad0
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"Climate velocities are 47% (Myers), 29% (G200, terrestrial) and 10% \r\n(G200, freshwater) lower inside biodiversity hotspots than outside, \r\nrespectively (Kocsis et  al., 2021), but are 69% higher inside marine \r\nhotspots than outside (medium confidence). Climate velocities \r\nfrom 1970 to 2019 ranged from 3-4 km per decade (terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater) to ~11 km per decade in marine (Kocsis et al., 2021)."


id: 95e40a13fe8a9ae5b98bc6dc947e2e71
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"For terrestrial and freshwater hotspots, the highest climate velocities \r\nare in central South America, including the Amazon (H153, 154) \r\n(Figure  CCP1.3). Terrestrial hotspots also have high velocities in the "


id: c865bd1001adcde7ca56760d0d5cfaff
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"Figure CCP1.1 |  Recent human impacts on the terrestrial biodiversity hotspots (coloured, grey is non hotspot) (Table CCP1.SM.1). Impacts are scaled in five \r\nequal 20% categories. (a) North and Central America; (b) South America; (c) Southeast Asia; (d) Europe and North Africa; (e) Africa and Arabia; (f) North Asia; (g) Southeast Asian \r\narchipelagos, Australia and New Zealand. See Table CCP1.1 for key to hotspot numbers."


id: ddfdf74cd7ee468713be4f66c9629435
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"Figure CCP1.2 |  Recent human impacts from multiple factors on (a) freshwater hotspots since 2000, based on Janse et al. (2015) and (b) marine hotspots \r\nbased on Halpern et al. (2015). Human impacts in freshwater areas refer to the remaining wilderness. Marine impacts represent land-based, fishing, climate change and \r\nocean-based stressors. Impacts are scaled into five equal 20% categories. See Table CCP1.1 for the key to hotspot numbers."


id: 917dde5646769eb17b654fd095f9dd8
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"Figure CCP1.3 |  Climate velocities in terrestrial (a), freshwater (b) and marine (c) hotspots between 1970-2019. Values are presented in kilometres per decade and \r\nderived using the analytical package VoCC (Garcia Molinos et al., 2019) from gridded temperature data, sea surface temperatures for marine (Rayner et al., 2003) and near-surface \r\nair temperatures on land and freshwater (Harris et al., 2020). Positive and negative velocities indicate warming and cooling, respectively."


id: 278696d6fc8bd3f55ff7a70897431778
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"Table CCP1.1 |  List of biodiversity hotspots names from (Olson and Dinerstein, 2002) as mapped in Figures CCP1.1 for terrestrial (numbered 1 to 142) and CCP1.2 for freshwater \r\n(143 to 195) and marine (196 to 238). Hotspots containing islands (>100 km2) are indicated with an asterisk."


id: a1c106cf549a622f73654fd27ced0ed7
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"towards the subtropics (Burrows et al., 2014). The subtropics are then \r\nsource areas of species that shift to temperate latitudes and so forth, \r\nsuch that observed impacts in marine biodiversity hotspots are largely \r\nattributable to species range shifts (high confidence) (Pecl et al., 2017). \r\nBecause marine climate velocities are significantly greater within than \r\noutside hotspots, marine hotspots are especially prone to species \r\nredistributions (medium confidence) (Figure  CCP1.3; (Kocsis et  al., \r\n2021)."


id: fab4b3ef5248f569bb6e674ed3aaa73e
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"Arctic (H196, 214) and east of the Caspian Sea, while freshwater \r\nhotspots have low velocities in the eastern European Mediterranean \r\nand eastern Australia."


id: 3d7b4aeb196f7201f89eb3298d3ffc41
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"Marine hotspots have a wider range of climate velocities than \r\nterrestrial and freshwater environments (Figure CCP1.3), being faster \r\nin equatorial, Mediterranean (H216), Baltic (H215), North and Okhotsk \r\n(H229), and Arctic hotspots (H196, 214), and slow in the Antarctic \r\nhotspot (H213). Marine species tend to follow climate velocities more \r\nclosely than terrestrial species (high confidence) (Sunday et al., 2012; \r\nPinsky et al., 2019; Lenoir et al., 2020). The reasons may be smaller \r\nthermal safety margins in the seas or greater human impacts on land \r\nimpeding species range shifts. Climate velocities are particularly fast \r\nin equatorial seas (Figure  CCP1.3; (Burrows et  al., 2011), which are \r\ntherefore expected to be source areas for species shifting their ranges "


id: 653c1074eaf7ff5b9997ff50d0a4f35f
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"While species from lower latitudes may shift their geographic ranges \r\nto higher latitudes to adapt to changing climate, there are no species \r\nto replace low latitude species. Thus, as already observed in the oceans \r\naround the equator, the loss of species in low latitudes will continue \r\nwith future climate warming (high confidence) (Yasuhara et al., 2020; \r\nChaudhary et al., 2021). The issue also extends to altitudinal ranges "


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"in terrestrial environments, with species moving to higher elevations \r\nwhere surface area generally declines with increasing elevation; \r\nmountaintop species may have nowhere to go (Flousek et al., 2015; \r\nFreeman et al., 2018; Kidane et al., 2019)."


id: 714e588002427a7cba289000c862055b
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"Generally, terrestrial and freshwater hotspots are projected to continue \r\nto warm more than marine (Figure CCP1.3). Modelled temperatures \r\nare projected to continue to be the highest in the tropics, indicating \r\nwhere there are more thermally stressful conditions for more species \r\n(high confidence) (Stuart-Smith et al., 2015; Stuart-Smith et al., 2017; \r\nFoster et al., 2018; Waldock et al., 2019). By the end of this century, all \r\nterrestrial biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, Africa, \r\nIndia and southern and eastern Asia (including the Indo-West Pacific \r\nislands) are projected to experience climates unprecedented in their \r\nspecies' evolutionary history (medium confidence) (Williams et  al., \r\n2007)."


id: c6739b1aa4aec9e463bd1dfdf9522521
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"Globally, observed climate-driven changes in biodiversity are typically \r\nof species distributions shifting to higher latitudes (virtually certain) \r\n(Lenoir et  al., 2020, Ch.2, Ch. 3.4). Since the 1950s, marine species \r\nrichness has shifted poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, increased \r\nin mid-latitudes and declined at the equator in concert with ocean \r\nwarming (medium confidence) (Chaudhary et  al., 2021). Climate\u0002driven altitudinal shifts are common on land (high confidence) (Lenoir \r\nand Svenning, 2015; Steinbauer et al., 2018), and depth shifts in the \r\nocean may occur but are little studied (low confidence) (Burrows et al., \r\n2019; Jorda et al., 2020). While climate-induced range expansions can \r\nbe viewed as opportunities for increasing regional biodiversity, range \r\ncontractions adversely affect biodiversity through regional extirpations \r\n(high confidence) (Cahill et al., 2013; Chaudhary et al., 2021)."


id: 955f262da7d0c87c0e537db6da86099c
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"Both of the two climate change associated global species extinctions \r\nto date support the predictions that endemic species on mountains \r\nand islands are at the greatest risk of extinction (Manes et al., 2021). \r\nThe golden toad (Bufo periglenes) became extinct after some years of \r\ndecline associated with changes in climate warming and precipitation \r\nin the Talamancan-Isthmian Pacific Forests biodiversity hotspot (H22) \r\n(Pounds et al., 1999; Cahill et al., 2013, WGII Ch2.4.2.2). The Bramble \r\nCay melomys (Melomys rubicola), a rodent endemic to an island \r\nbetween Australia and Papua New Guinea and closely related to a \r\nmainland Australian species, became extinct due to habitat loss arising \r\nfrom climate change-related sea level rise and cyclone activity (Fulton, \r\n2017; Roycroft et al., 2021, WGII Ch.11)."


id: 6e7693296a65d91ee8a3ab45c779e4f8
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"Of the 6116 projections for more than 2,700 species assessed in \r\nbiodiversity hotspots, ~44% were found to be at high extinction risk, \r\nand ~24% at very high extinction risk due to climate change (Manes \r\net al., 2021) (medium confidence). Risks of extinction were estimated \r\nbased on the projections for all warming levels combined, showing \r\nthat endemic species were about 2.7 times more at very high risk of \r\nextinction compared to non-endemic native species (Manes et  al., \r\n2021). Extinction risks were highest for endemic species of both land "


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"Comparison of climate warming projected for air and sea temperature \r\nshows biodiversity hotspots will continue to experience the greatest \r\nnet increases in temperature at higher Northern Hemisphere latitudes, \r\nparticularly in tundra regions (Figures CCP1.4; CCP1.5; Table CCP1.1). "


id: aef6cc81abcbe039a65df9a097b679e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Manes et  al. (2021) found that any benefits to species (e.g., range \r\nor abundance increase) were projected to be localised and transient \r\n(e.g., Arctic, H196, 214). This and previous assessments indicate \r\nthat, while climate change varies spatially and taxa may respond \r\ndifferently, a loss of biodiversity is projected across all terrestrial \r\nhotspots (high confidence) (Foden et al., 2013; Warren et al., 2018a; \r\nManes et al., 2021). Abrupt changes across species assemblages may \r\noccur under all scenarios: in 9% of assemblages at 1.75degC and 35% \r\nat 4.4degC on both land and sea (Trisos et al., 2020). However, species \r\nlosses may be reduced if species have thermal microclimate refugia \r\nand behavioural thermoregulation, or greater due to extreme events, \r\nsuch as heatwaves."


id: 2bbf4a0aca9bb18a1af831020f21e989
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"and ocean (medium confidence), and were higher for those living on \r\nislands (~100%, medium confidence) and mountains (~84%, medium \r\nconfidence) than in the ocean (~54%, low evidence, medium agreement;\r\nlow confidence) and on continents (~12%, robust evidence, medium \r\nagreement, medium confidence) (Figure  CCP1.6). Extinction risks \r\nfor non-endemic natives were ~20% for both terrestrial and marine \r\nspecies, with introduced species projected to become more rather than \r\nless invasive. At 1.5degC warming, ~2% of both terrestrial and marine \r\nspecies and at 3degC, ~20% and ~32% respectively, were projected to \r\nbe at very high risk of extinction in the hotspots (Figure CCP1.6). Thus, \r\na doubling of warming results in a roughly 10-fold increase in species \r\nat very high extinction risk."


id: ade6474c88e739c208702f48f416771e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"or underestimate the impacts on biodiversity (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). The additional risk of the combined effects of climate \r\nchange and other impacts (e.g., land use change, overhunting, \r\npollution and invasive species) on species has been raised since the \r\nThird Assessment Report. The terrestrial hotspots projected to be \r\nmost affected by global warming are, in general, those already being \r\nimpacted by loss of habitat due to land use change (Figure CCP1.4; \r\nTable SMCCP1.1) (Warren et al., 2018a). This remains a trend in the \r\nrecent literature, although most studies still address only one stressor \r\n(Titeux et al., 2016). For example, Mantyka-Pringle et al. (2015) show \r\nthat when the interaction between projected climate change and \r\nhabitat loss is taken into account, the extinction risk of birds and "


id: c5dda0822ce2e63c4cc3ecb319495db2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"All biodiversity hotspots are already impacted, to differing degrees, \r\nby human activities (high confidence) (Table CCP1.1, Figures CCP1.1, \r\nCCP1.2, Myers et al., 2000; Le Roux et al., 2019). At present, over three \r\nbillion people live within terrestrial and (catchments of) freshwater \r\nbiodiversity hotspots, many of which border marine hotspots (Figures \r\nCCP1.1; CCP1.2; Table  SMCCP1.1; Gutierrez et  al., 2021). Thus, \r\nclimate change impacts on biodiversity hotspots are compounded \r\nby other anthropogenic impacts, increasing the vulnerability and \r\nreducing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change (very high \r\nconfidence). Projections of changing climate alone may overestimate "


id: efe4a7da9c23b8bdaa1a9a347c9045dd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Figure CCP1.6 |  A summary of the projected risks of species extinction at global warming levels of <1.5degC, 1.5-2.0degC and >3degC in terrestrial and marine \r\nbiodiversity hotspots. Data from Manes et al. (2021)."


id: 1d4fe884a1afd54402499d8e4d81d40f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"20 of the 110 river basins studied would experience sufficient climate\u0002driven water loss to cause fish extinctions by 2090. Moreover, the \r\npresent rates of species loss due to human activities are 130  times \r\ngreater than those projected under future climate change (medium \r\nconfidence) (Tedesco et al., 2013)."


id: 140358d5480df211516887c2d626185
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"mammals in 15-32% of terrestrial biodiversity hotspots changes. \r\nSimilarly, Bellard et al. (2014b) found different results when examining \r\nthe impact of climate change, invasive species and land use change \r\nindependently, as opposed to synergistically. When combining those \r\nthree impacts they identified the Atlantic Forest (H47), Cape Floristic \r\nRegion (H65) and Polynesia-Micronesia (H1, 2, 138, 139, 142) as \r\nparticularly vulnerable."


id: 1def2ee8910344a0744f4055e46c8985
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Marine systems are also vulnerable to cumulative human impacts, \r\nwhich can be direct (e.g., pollution, overfishing) and indirect (altered \r\nfood webs) (very high confidence) (Halpern et al., 2008; Halpern et al., \r\n2015). The marine hotspots most currently threatened by non-climate\u0002related human impacts are all situated in the Northern Hemisphere, \r\nspecifically along the northern European, Mediterranean and Asian \r\ncoasts, where the overlap of overfishing and pollution is especially large "


id: a41759e5dc00b253550fd148b299b39e
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content:
"In a global assessment of the threat of climate change to river fish \r\nbiodiversity, Tedesco et  al. (2013) projected that current extinction \r\nrates of species may be 7% greater due to climate change. The main \r\nthreat is due to the effects of drought and reduced river flows, which \r\nwould be 18 times greater than without climate change. However, just "


id: 6446963e271eaae56e2f2efc4efa9033
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In Europe, the Mediterranean hotspot (H216) has seen increases in \r\nwildfires and droughts attributed to anthropogenic climate change \r\n(Gudmundsson et al., 2017; Barbero et al., 2020). Range shifts in birds \r\nhave been observed at higher elevations (medium confidence) (Telleria, \r\n2020)."


id: 489960c2e06519d146d652a5331300df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In Africa, multiple lines of evidence suggest woody plants are increasing \r\nin area, density and cover in previously lightly wooded savanna and \r\ngrassland hotspots (H65, 82) (Poulsen and Hoffman, 2015; Stevens et al., \r\n2017). Significant vulture and cheetah range reductions in these hotspots \r\nare at least partially attributable to bush encroachment (Nghikembua \r\net al., 2016; Wolter et al., 2016; Santangeli et al., 2018). Thus, climate\u0002driven bush encroachment has adversely affected unique mammal and \r\nbird diversity (robust evidence, medium agreement, medium confidence). \r\nWarming and drying trends have historically been shown to reduce the \r\nrange of the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis), and they interact with land \r\nuse pressures in the Ethiopian hotspot (H68) (Sintayehu, 2018) and plant \r\nspecies richness in the Cape Fynbos (H65) of southern Africa to reduce \r\npost-wildfire recruitment (low confidence) (Slingsby et al., 2017)."


id: 5e7ec7200a6806194dd4c2fd80d6770b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Observed impacts in Asia were mostly restricted to the Himalaya \r\n(H95, 98, 99), Sundaland (H109, 110, 111, 112, 117, 118) and Indo\u0002Burma (H105, 106, 107, 114, 115) hotspots, showing negative impacts \r\nthrough increased invasion by exotic plants, decreased suitable area \r\nfor endemic species and significant changes in phenology (medium \r\nconfidence) (Telwala et  al., 2013; Braby et  al., 2014; Padalia et  al., \r\n2015; Lamsal et al., 2017). In the Central Asian mountain landscape \r\n(H87), studies have shown increased aridity induced by climate change \r\nimpacts on several shrub species (Seim et  al., 2016). Some positive \r\neffects were observed for native species in terms of an increase of \r\nsuitable habitat (limited evidence, low agreement) (Priti et al., 2016; \r\nTang et al., 2017; Rathore et al., 2019)."


id: 3269a8d798e19dbb6febeb5a2796602
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The following sections report observed and projected climate change \r\nimpacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments."


id: 8cca27f9999c67cef6730b75b23d8f5d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The 177 terrestrial hotspots assessed here (including 142 G200) cover \r\nabout 61,000,000 km2\r\n (41% of global land area), with a 37% overlap \r\nwith freshwater hotspots (Table CCP1.1; Figure CCP1.2). They include \r\nwet and dry forests, woodland and scrub, highlands, mangroves, \r\ndeserts, steppe, savanna, grasslands, moorlands and tundra (Figures \r\nCCP1.8-1.11). Over 77% of publications on climate change impacts \r\non hotspots since AR5 have been on terrestrial ecosystems, most on \r\nprojected (as opposed to observed) impacts (Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 3df5e5b329a5ead3ed6ac7b121f9e140
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"There is high confidence that climate change has already had impacts \r\nin North American hotspots. Phenological and range shifts have \r\nbeen reported for bird and mammal species within the boreal forest \r\nhotspot (Davidson et  al., 2020), and earlier egg laying in birds in \r\ntundra hotspots (H3, 5) owing to changes in snowmelt (Grabowski \r\net al., 2013). Woody vegetation is already shifting north into the tundra \r\n(Larsen et al., 2014)."


id: d8dc0b23fbb41f2656d6a7e5b5fce389
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In Central and South America, observed impacts within Mesoamerica \r\n(H15, 16) and the Tropical Andes hotspots (H26, 27, 28, 32, 33) \r\ncomprise upward altitudinal range shifts of birds, frogs, beetles and \r\nbutterflies (Narins and Meenderink, 2014; Molina-Martinez et  al., \r\n2016; Moret et al., 2016; Freeman et al., 2018) (medium confidence). \r\nA shift of the Guianan-Amazon mangroves (H37) to higher grounds \r\ninland was attributed to the effects of observed sea level rise (low \r\nconfidence) (Cohen et al., 2018)."


id: 543c6ce1be5e7c28e3df23cda8c56218
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Approximately 76% of biodiversity hotspots within this assessment \r\neither contain, or are comprised of islands >100 km2\r\n (Table CCP1.1). \r\nHowever, just 0.08% of these hotspots were represented in post\u0002AR5 literature examining climate change impacts on terrestrial \r\nbiodiversity. Most observed impacts were assessed with low evidence, \r\nbut high agreement, and focused on plants and insects. Impacts "


id: e8f7fc5b3ce2e66c408f85af82ece012
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In European biodiversity hotspots, about 75% of projections for assessed \r\nspecies showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~30% at very \r\nhigh risk of extinction (medium confidence) (Figure CCP1.7; Manes et al., \r\n2021). These threats are projected to be worse under higher levels of \r\nwarming. Increased wildfire size and frequency is projected to have a \r\nstrong effect on the Mediterranean basin (H216) ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence) (Lozano et al., 2017). Range reductions have been projected \r\nfor endemic plants (Perez-Garcia et  al., 2013; Casazza et  al., 2014), \r\nreptiles (Ahmadi et al., 2019), birds (Abolafya et al., 2013) and insects \r\n(Sanchez-Guillen et al., 2013) (medium confidence)."


id: 550803392802919b277749e84e1f6fe0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"described included abundance changes and extirpations (Jenouvrier \r\net  al., 2014), altitudinal range shifts (Koide et  al., 2017), increased \r\ninvasive alien species' abundance and extent in Madagascar (H76, \r\n77), Balearic (H51) and Pacific islands (Ghulam, 2014; Silva-Rocha \r\net  al., 2015; Goulding et  al., 2016; Dawson et  al., 2017), increased \r\ntemperature affecting physiology, body size and behaviour of frogs in \r\nthe Caribbean (H20) (Narins and Meenderink, 2014) and phenological \r\nalterations (Fonturbel et al., 2018). One positive observation was the \r\nhigh resilience to recovery of intact forest ecosystems to tropical \r\ncyclones within Caribbean (H20) and Pacific islands (medium \r\nconfidence) (Keppel et al., 2014; Marler, 2014; Shiels et al., 2014)."


id: 97cede99d9963f40da633caff3eb0585
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"In African biodiversity hotspots, about 80% of projections for assessed \r\nspecies showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~10% at \r\nvery high risk of extinction, especially of endemic species including \r\nbirds, plants, bees across several taxa and hotspots if warming exceeds \r\n2degC (high confidence) (Figure CCP1.7; Huntley and Barnard, 2012; \r\nKuhlmann et  al., 2012; Baker et  al., 2015; Lee and Barnard, 2016; \r\nYoung et al., 2016; Hannah et al., 2020; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 2702f4acf369b6b1a261a80598fc6142
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"especially birds and amphibians (high confidence) (Fortini et al., 2015; \r\nHolmes et al., 2015; Manes et al., 2021, Box CCP1.1). Of all biodiversity \r\nhotspots, island species face the highest proportion of extirpation risk \r\nat high elevations due to decreasing habitat area (e.g., Brown et al., \r\n2015) and at low elevations from sea level rise, habitat loss and \r\nintroduced species (medium confidence) (Bellard et al., 2014a)."


id: 56d434fbb495fa61752f00e6967cc1f0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"increase due to carbon dioxide fertilization, this may be compromised \r\nby drought (low confidence) (Ausseil et  al., 2013). Seed production \r\nin native New Zealand beech forests is projected to increase due to \r\nclimate warming, fuelling the abundance of invasive rats and stoats, \r\nwhich then predate native species and lead to loss of endemic fauna \r\nand flora (medium confidence) (Tompkins et al., 2013, Ch. 11)."


id: 79fa0e24512b5185a5050fa17e00a06c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"About 80% of projections for assessed terrestrial species within insular \r\nbiodiversity hotspots showed a negative impact of climate change, \r\nwith ~50% at very high risk of extinction, including 100% of endemic \r\nspecies (medium confidence) (Figure CCP1.7; Manes et  al., 2021). \r\nIn addition to habitat loss and species range reductions, changes in \r\nprecipitation are projected to be a major driver impacting tropical \r\nand subtropical island species (medium confidence) (Maharaj and \r\nNew, 2013; Harter et al., 2015; Struebig et al., 2015; Vogiatzakis et al., \r\n2016; Maharaj et al., 2018). Compared to continents, island species \r\nare projected to undergo greater impacts from changing climate, "


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updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The 53 hotspots in freshwater ecosystems assessed here cover about \r\n32,830,000 km2\r\n (17% of global freshwater habitats and 22% of the \r\nglobal land area), with a 68% overlap with terrestrial ecosystems \r\n(Table CCP1.1; Figure CCP1.2). They include lakes, rivers and streams \r\n(Figure CCP1.12)."


id: 18bdd2fdce8dda21d40a47a3881b87a9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"The African Rift Valley Lakes (H171), including Lakes Tanganyika and \r\nTurkana, are suffering from climate change influenced drought, po\u0002tentially impacting freshwater biodiversity (medium confidence) (Dud\u0002geon et al., 2006). Africa and Madagascar (H172) are projected to see \r\na climate-driven 10% reduction in freshwater flow that is projected to \r\nthreaten the survival of ~9% of freshwater-dependent fish and birds \r\n(low confidence) (Thieme et  al., 2010). Climate change is projected \r\nto increase the extinction vulnerability of most freshwater fish in the \r\nwestern South Africa Cape hotspot (H170) (low confidence) (Shelton \r\net al., 2018)."


id: e874521d61955f168dcb187b255f136
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"An analysis of trends in 190 river basins in Australia found that stream\u0002flows have been declining, including in the Central Australian (H194) \r\nand Kimberley (H191) hotspots, due to greater terrestrial plant uptake \r\nof water in response to climate-related increases in carbon dioxide (low \r\nconfidence) (Ukkola et al., 2016). We did not find any other publications \r\nproviding evidence of impacts of climate change on freshwater \r\nbiodiversity within the hotspots. Whether this is because freshwater \r\ntemperatures tend to be cooler due to inputs from groundwater and/or \r\nmountain streams (Knouft and Ficklin, 2017), resilience of freshwater \r\nspecies or lack of research is unclear."


id: d835de5b42cf784fb3409061b92781f0
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content:
"In Asia, although climate change impacts on the Yangtze (H183) and \r\nMekong river (H186) biodiversity hotspots have not been reported, \r\nthey are subject to the range of human impacts of over-exploitation, \r\npollution, water abstraction, altered flow regimes, habitat loss and \r\nspread of invasive species, which makes them more vulnerable to \r\nclimate effects (medium confidence) (Dudgeon et  al., 2006). The \r\nrelease of water from shrinking glaciers in Asia to some extent protects \r\ndownstream freshwaters against drought, but half of these glaciers are \r\nprojected to disappear by 2100 (medium confidence) (Pritchard, 2019)."


id: f444ca90d9f7d19f7580be3097ab82da
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content:
"Cold-water species are projected to lose habitat in Canada and this may \r\napply in the Alaskan river (H143) and Russian Far East Lake Inle (H181) \r\nhotspots (medium confidence) (Comte et al., 2013). Water abstraction \r\nis significant in the Colorado river hotspot (H145) and reduces its \r\nresilience to climate change effects on flow rates (Grafton et al., 2013)."


id: cefc9ec862c64fcf43bc4af6c05fd829
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In Australia, the Murray-Darling river basin occupies much of the \r\nEastern Rivers hotspot (H195) and climate-related drought exacerbated \r\nby water abstraction is projected to drive declines in freshwater \r\nbirds, fish and invertebrates (high confidence) (Grafton et al., 2013). \r\nHowever, a national scale analysis projected climate change to cause \r\nfreshwater species range shifts, but no losses of species in this hotspot \r\n(low confidence) (James et al., 2017, WG2 Ch. 11)."


id: 66bcb0e92a393d604cfd0ba339fae432
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"In South America, in the Brazilian Amazon hotspot (H153, 154, \r\n157), half the assessed fish species were considered sensitive to \r\nincreased temperatures and reduced oxygen due to climate change \r\n(low confidence) (Frederico et al., 2016). The use of protected areas \r\nwas recommended to reduce the impacts of deforestation and water \r\npollution (Jezequel et  al., 2020). El Nino-related floods have led to \r\ndeclines in numbers of caiman, a top predator in the Brazilian Parana \r\nriver hotspot (H158), which indicates that increased floods due to \r\nclimate change may reduce its population and alter food webs (Herrera \r\net al., 2015)."


id: 15311c5dae4d9e5ef0e4c7e645de612e
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content:
"The 43 hotspots in marine ecosystems cover 46,600,000 km2, repre\u0002senting 9% of the ocean area (Table CCP1.1; Figure CCP1.2). They in\u0002clude coral reef ecosystems, kelp forests, seagrass meadows, polar and \r\nupwelling zones (Figures CCP1.13; CCP1.14)."


id: 8516541203c93b97c004b3dbd6fec311
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18465
content:
"Observed impacts attributable to climate change are strongly \r\nbiased geographically, with most data from the temperate Northern \r\nHemisphere, followed by subtropical to temperate Australia and few \r\nlong-term data in the tropics (Poloczanska et  al., 2013; Poloczanska \r\net al., 2016). Marine heatwaves have increased over the past century, \r\ncausing mass mortalities in the hotspots of the Mediterranean (H216), \r\nGreat Barrier Reef (H236), western and southern Australia (H227, 228), \r\nnorthwest Atlantic (H207) and northeast Pacific (H197) (high confidence) \r\n(Hobday et al., 2018; Oliver et al., 2018). The shift of thousands of species \r\nfrom equatorial latitudes since the 1950s has been attributed to climate \r\nwarming (medium confidence) (Chaudhary et al., 2021)."


id: 1f99628c7ebaed612848a0f8167584dc
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"Climate change-related hazards, particularly marine heat events, have \r\ncaused widespread coral bleaching and mass mortalities as the time \r\nbetween consecutive bleaching events decreases (high confidence) \r\n(IPCC, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; IPCC, 2019b). Coral reefs in some \r\nIndian Ocean hotspots (H230, 234) already exhibit net loss of coral \r\nreefs (low confidence) (Perry et al., 2018). While coral bleaching is a "


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"Upwelling systems are best known for bringing nutrients to the \r\nsurface. These stimulate phytoplankton blooms, which in turn support \r\nimportant fisheries (Section 3.4.2.11). However, this deep water also \r\ntends to be low in oxygen, which can be further depleted by respiration \r\nand surface warming. Prolonged marine heatwaves in the Californian \r\nCurrent hotspot (H197) drove major shifts in the geographic range \r\nof birds, mammals, fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other species, and \r\ntoxic algal blooms (Sanford et al., 2019)."


id: f0dddf462be791ee6abddc21006d61ba
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"visible symptom of heat stress, warming has also induced restructuring \r\nof associated fish and invertebrate communities in the Great Barrier \r\nReef (H236) (medium confidence) (Stuart-Smith et al., 2018)."


id: af3504603ea02bc40794c3e3384bdd31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Although the number of coral species that are both exposed and \r\nvulnerable to climate hazards is greatest in the central Indo-Pacific, the \r\nproportion of corals at risk is greater in the lower diversity Caribbean \r\nhotspots (H209) (medium confidence) (Foden et al., 2013). Some reef \r\ncorals are able to acclimate to heatwaves (low confidence) (DeCarlo \r\net al., 2019), and some have expanded their latitudinal ranges polewards \r\n(high confidence), up to 14 km yr-1 in the northwest Pacific (Yamano \r\net al., 2011). Although future latitudinal expansions may be limited by \r\nwinter light availability (Muir et al., 2015), new coral reefs are already \r\nemerging in Japan (Kumagai et al., 2018)."


id: a12974b466326473c62a2263365b4028
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In both the Antarctic (H213) and Arctic (H196, 214), the loss of ice \r\nimpacts on the behaviour and foraging ability of marine mammals \r\nand birds (Doney et al., 2012). The retreat of sea ice in the Bering Sea \r\n(H196) hotspot has been followed by a reorganisation of the seabed \r\nand fish communities, a northward shift in species, and greater species' \r\nbiomass and richness (Mueter and Litzow, 2008; Grebmeier et  al., \r\n2018). In the Eurasian Arctic (H214), species richness has similarly \r\nbeen increasing (Weslawski et al., 2011; Kortsch et al., 2012; Certain \r\nand Planque, 2015; Fossheim et al., 2015; Weslawski et al., 2018), as \r\nhas phytoplankton productivity (Arrigo et al., 2008). The distribution of \r\nkrill has already contracted with ocean warming in the Southern Ocean \r\n(medium confidence) (Cox et al., 2018; Atkinson et al., 2019)."


id: e48c1d8d5295736643444ef4669fffff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The Mediterranean Sea hotspot (H216) is negatively affected by \r\nclimate change (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 4). Species \r\nentering via the Suez Canal from the Red Sea (H220) are facilitated by \r\nwarming and lead to profound community changes (high confidence) \r\n(Yeruham et al., 2015; Rilov, 2016; Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017; Givan \r\net al., 2018; Bianchi et al., 2019). In contrast, the more open coastal \r\nseas of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America have had \r\nincreasing species richness since the 1970s (Batt et al., 2017)."


id: a38a1c40290808291e1dc0aa6606aae6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Tropical extirpations, already underway (Section 1.2.4.1), are projected \r\nto reduce hotspot diversity especially in the Coral Triangle (H226, 232, \r\n234), Maldives (H224) and, to a lesser extent, in the Caribbean (H200, \r\nH210) (Jones and Cheung, 2015; Garcia Molinos et  al., 2016) and \r\nPersian Gulf (H219) (Wabnitz et  al., 2018). Paleo evidence supports \r\nprojections of tropical biodiversity loss under high global warming \r\n(high confidence) (Kiessling et al., 2012; Yasuhara et al., 2020)."


id: 792b1c1ee72f1de4aa167d4743ca0f61
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Warm-water coral reefs are expected to decline with 1.5degC warming \r\n(very high confidence) (King et al., 2017; Bindoff et al., 2019) leading \r\nto systems with reduced biodiversity and structural complexity (high \r\nconfidence) (Chapters 3; 11; Box 11.2). In the Coral Triangle, marine \r\nheatwaves are projected to have the same effect as an added mean \r\nannual 0.5degC sea surface temperature increase (McManus et al., 2020). \r\nWhile some corals are expected to survive in deep 'mesophotic' reefs \r\n(Laverick and Rogers, 2019), the shallow coral reefs of today will not \r\nlast the century if climate warming continues without mitigation (high \r\nconfidence) (Hughes et al., 2018a; Hughes et al., 2018b; IPCC, 2018; \r\nBindoff et al., 2019; Hughes et al., 2019b)."


id: 336ccf44f1b2fa871072fa2c6214984a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In the Mediterranean, ocean acidification has been projected to lead \r\nto increases of fleshy algae at the expense of calcifying algae (Zunino \r\net al., 2017). However, seagrass has been projected to decline (Chefaoui \r\net al., 2018) and increase (Zunino et al., 2017) in the Mediterranean \r\nSea hotspot (H216). Kelp forests are expected to decline in the \r\nnorthwest Atlantic (Grand Banks, H207), whereas gains and losses are \r\nprojected to be approximately balanced in the Northeast Atlantic Shelf \r\n(H215) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (Assis \r\net al., 2018; Wilson et al., 2019), but may lead to impoverished benthic \r\nassemblages (Teagle and Smale, 2018)."


id: 8fee241327aa417ca194b9f724803139
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Range expansions out of the Nansei Shoto (H231) hotspot south of \r\nJapan has led to the replacement of temperate kelp forests by tropical \r\ncoral and herbivorous fishes on Japanese coasts (Kumagai et  al., \r\n2018). The Yellow Sea (H230) is one of the most exploited marine \r\nhotspots, with decreasing ecosystem services compounded by climate \r\nchange but there is low confidence for climate change contributing \r\nsubstantially to ecological degradation (Wang et al., 2016; Song and \r\nDuan, 2019)."


id: a99397f59dcd3de258b35c402fa557d2
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"Figure CCP1.13 |  High-latitude marine biodiversity hotspots. Northeast Atlantic temperate seagrass beds, soft-corals, and kelp forests in Norway (photos by Galice Hoarau). \r\nSouth African fynbos and Agulhas current and Antarctic Peninsula and Weddell Sea (photos by Denis Costello). In the Americas, the Humboldt Current Chile and Chesapeake Bay \r\n(photos by Mark Costello)."


id: 5f7f98e279ec12ce88156b583ca067de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Table CCP1.2 |  Examples of adaptation actions that benefit the conservation of biodiversity and climate change mitigation."


id: 733bf86bb047f8799c2108b8243c0954
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"population sizes of presently occurring native species are expected \r\nto decline, especially in the Barents Sea (H214) (Koenigstein et  al., \r\n2018). Ocean acidification is projected to continue globally, and while \r\nits impact is uncertain and projected to be less than the effect of \r\nwarming, it may lead to changes in marine food webs due to varying \r\neffects on marine species (Terhaar et al., 2020). Hotspots in temperate \r\nlatitudes are projected to have assemblages modified by immigration \r\nfrom the tropics and emigration to polar waters. Where land barriers \r\nand other geographical limits to range shifts occur, limited dispersal \r\nand habitat fragmentation may also limit the capacity of some species \r\nto track climate velocities, such as in the Baltic Sea (H215) (Jonsson \r\net al., 2018), Mediterranean Sea (H216) (Burrows et al., 2014; Arafeh\u0002Dalmau et  al., 2021) and Antarctica (H213) (medium confidence) \r\n(Cristofari et al., 2018)."


id: 3be37b57ee5ddb27ddbf53dd02e1b97c
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"Projected climate caused changes in biodiversity in coastal upwelling \r\nregions are uncertain. While productivity in the California Current \r\n(H197) system is projected to increase with future climate change, \r\nnonlinear plankton responses and uncertain interactions with food \r\nweb dynamics hinder predictions of ecosystem responses (Xiu et al., \r\n2018). In addition, this hotspot is projected to suffer from ocean \r\nacidification by 2050 (Gruber et al., 2012)."


id: a4fa9bce0bae3a07eeeb575d0bc918a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Around Antarctica (H213), almost half of all species are endemic \r\n(Costello et al., 2010), and warming during this century is projected \r\nto cause a reduction in suitable thermal environment for 79% of its \r\nspecies (RCP8.5) (low confidence) (Basher and Costello, 2016; Griffiths \r\net  al., 2017). The previously mentioned declines in Southern Ocean \r\nkrill due to climate change contribute to projected declines in baleen \r\nwhales there (Tulloch et al., 2019)."


id: 528562d3b3561e3ccca1de67117d7705
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"Species richness in the northern polar hotspots is expected to increase \r\nsubstantially (high confidence) (Cheung et  al., 2015). However, "


id: ca73bfa4a9ac540b2222ad89a82b2dbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Similarly, global fish biomass may be less affected by climate change if \r\nbiodiversity is greater (Duffy et al., 2016). Thus, a network of reserves \r\nrepresentative of global biodiversity, helps attenuate the effects of \r\nclimate change (medium confidence), for example, by having more \r\nabundant fish and top predator populations (Roberts et al., 2017; Beyer \r\net al., 2018; Carter et al., 2020; Sala et al., 2021). However, the impacts \r\nof marine heatwaves on corals across marine reserves illustrates that \r\nenhanced resilience is not enough to protect against extreme and \r\nfuture climate change conditions (high confidence) (Bruno et al., 2018; \r\nHughes et al., 2018a; Kleypas et al., 2021)."


id: 6d144df63aaa158095000b379b404cb
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"Terrestrial, freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems are impacted \r\nby the 3 billion people that currently live in in biodiversity hotspots \r\n(Gutierrez et  al., 2021). At the same time, biodiversity in hotspots \r\nsupports the livelihoods of the local communities. The suite of \r\nadaptation options for biodiversity are as applicable inside as outside \r\nhotspots (Table CCP1.2). Many of these hotspots are now faced with \r\nwidespread fragmentation and habitat degradation (high confidence) \r\n(Table SMCCP1.1)."


id: fbc93c08300d43249e3b26c8a55cfe0e
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"Because projected changes in biodiversity increase disproportionately \r\nwith warming, climate change mitigation is the primary action to \r\nconserve biodiversity within hotspots. If global warming is kept \r\nwithin the 1.5degC limit of the Paris Agreement, just ~4% of endemic \r\nspecies in biodiversity hotspots would be threatened with extinction \r\nfrom climate change. However, at the current commitments there is \r\nprojected to be ~3degC warming by 2100 and ~20% and ~32% for \r\nterrestrial and marine species, respectively, fall into the category of \r\nvery high extinction risk (Figure CCP1.6; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 51afe784f9f31cfd450fe698753547c2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Active relocation of endangered species to areas where they may \r\nbe safer from predation and human impacts, as already practised \r\nfor a few charismatic fauna, is expensive and fraught with complex \r\nregulations and concerns over impacts on native species (Brodie et al., \r\n2021). Therefore, managed relocation of species threatened by climate \r\nchange is questionable for most species."


id: 92a30afdc8fdfde6d09a6272de2853f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Healthier marine ecosystems are more resilient to additional stressors, \r\nsuch as storms and climate change (high confidence) (Isbell et al., 2015; \r\nDuffy et al., 2016; Roberts et al., 2017; Bates et al., 2019; Mariani et al., \r\n2020; Costello, 2021; Donovan et al., 2021). Extinction risk is lower \r\nwhen populations are larger and more genetically diverse, individuals \r\nare larger and older, and seabed habitats (e.g., coral, kelp, seagrass) \r\nare flourishing, as occurs in marine reserves (high confidence) \r\n(Costello, 2014; Roberts et al., 2017; Bates et al., 2019; Costello, 2021). "


id: 34c0354f0b21bfd1db899632dc50d2c1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Protecting biodiversity hotspots is a pragmatic way to conserve \r\nbiodiversity that is representative of a substantive fraction of genetic \r\nand species diversity on Earth (Mittermeier et al., 2011) while achieving "


id: dd0b33947d0598bfe1d27f0c0eb9fd6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Wetland Conservation. Thus, expanding and enhancing protection \r\nof a worldwide network of fully protected areas and protection and \r\nrestoration of non-protected areas representative of the biodiversity \r\nhotspots, including marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments, is \r\na highly recommended adaptation strategy to increase resilience of \r\nbiodiversity to climate change (Brito-Morales et al., 2018). However, \r\nadaptation strategies alone cannot protect biodiversity from climate \r\nimpacts without complementary and concomitant reduction of \r\ngreenhouse gas emissions."


id: 27f7b932fbd36746563f68766103493b
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content:
"co-benefits (Bonan, 2016; Sala et al., 2021). Protecting hotspots also \r\nhelps protect important ecosystem services. In a global ranking of \r\nareas that combine biodiversity conservation while maximising carbon \r\nretention and water quality regulation, for example, the terrestrial \r\nand freshwater hotspots assessed here ranked high (41st and 34th \r\non average, respectively, on a scale of 100) (Jung et  al., 2021). The \r\nsolutions needed to reverse biodiversity decline are well known and \r\narticulated in numerous international agreements and goals, such as \r\nthe Convention of Biological Diversity the United Nations' Sustainable \r\nDevelopment Goals, the Nationally Determined Contributions under \r\nthe Paris Agreement, the International Union for Nature Conservation's \r\nBonn Restoration Challenge and the Ramsar Convention on "


id: 11777768a24b927500bc9388f476e5e3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 234
content:
"However, some insular species have shown resilience to climate change. Intact island forests, for example, have shown rapid recovery \r\nrates after tropical cyclones, despite high levels of initial damage, especially in the Caribbean (medium confidence) (Luke et al., 2016; \r\nRichardson et al., 2018). Additionally, many Mediterranean islands are 'disturbance adapted', with continued persistence of some single\u0002island endemic plants, despite exposure to multiple threats (Vogiatzakis et al., 2016). This continued persistence has been attributed, at \r\nleast partially, to climate refugia, oceanic buffering and high habitat heterogeneity within topographically complex mountainous regions \r\n(Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Medail, 2017, Chapter 15, Table 15.1). However, this climate resilience will not be sustained under climate \r\nchange, especially when coupled with habitat degradation (high confidence) (Wiens, 2016)."


id: be209de289f443ea01c95651f4cf5f38
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Limited terrain, natural, economic and data resources across small developing nation islands mean that unconstrained habitat destruction \r\nand degradation cannot be sustained, as this harms both people and the biodiversity upon which they depend. This limitation of resources \r\ncompromises climate adaptation, which is often further complicated by varying governance and states of economic development (Petzold \r\nand Magnan, 2019). With changing climate conditions, there is an increased urgency to re-think how progress can be measured, and \r\nto create opportunities building on synergies between disaster risk reduction, food security and social justice, so that islands can most \r\nbenefit from their natural resources and biodiversity in a sustained manner (Box 15.2; Section 15.3.4.4 )."


id: 50d02fcb5e167e0c5314382d749d832a
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"Biodiversity hotspots are regions that are exceptionally rich in species, ecologically unique and which may contain geographically restricted \r\nspecies. They are thus priority targets for nature conservation."


id: 3583d7792888d002d00b0d90db8de76d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Recognising that the Convention on Biological Diversity definition of biodiversity includes the variation within and \r\nbetween species and of ecosystems, different schemes have been applied to define hotspots, leading to hundreds \r\nof different areas being proposed as hotspots. However, all identify a set of priority areas that cover a small portion \r\nof the Earth, but house an exceptionally high proportion of its biodiversity. Because biodiversity underpins all life \r\non Earth, these hotspots have significant global value as they contain species and habitats that are found nowhere \r\nelse. Their loss would mean loss of species and habitats that provide wild and farmed food, medicine and other \r\nmaterials, and services such as climate regulation, pollination and water purification, all of which maintain the \r\nhealth of the ecosystems we depend upon."


id: 2d6387ecb981579733f4f7ec80c4f00
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Healthy ecosystems, with flourishing biodiversity in natural conditions, are more resilient to disturbances, whether \r\nnatural or human in origin. Environmentally sustainable development inside and outside hotspots could help reverse \r\nhuman impacts on biodiversity. The hotspots also capture and store carbon, thereby helping to mitigate climate \r\nchange. Prioritisation of protecting biodiversity in hotspots thus benefits nature conservation and helps mitigate \r\nclimate change. A global network of protected areas and restoration initiatives inside biodiversity hotspots can also \r\nhelp increase resilience to the effects of climate change on biodiversity."


id: 78243f4bd57f5b2f0a7713e32773ad1d
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content:
"To reduce the effects of climate change on biodiversity, it is first essential to address direct human impacts that are already leading to a loss \r\nof biodiversity. This can be achieved by protecting biodiversity in conservation areas, restoring biodiversity everywhere possible and promoting \r\nsustainable development. Climate policies should thus integrate with policies to protect and restore nature."


id: 743d846e6e3bac4ba6b78a91099c3a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Avoiding further loss of biodiversity is implicit in sustainable development. This needs to happen on land, rivers, \r\nlakes and in the oceans. It is especially important in 'biodiversity hotspots' (FAQ 1.1) and protected areas to minimise \r\nspecies losses. Hence calls by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Convention on Biological \r\nDiversity, United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to increase the size and connectivity of fully \r\nprotected areas (which aim to have biodiversity in a near natural condition) and include in them the biodiversity \r\nhotspots, need to be immediately implemented."


id: 276bbf267545bdd04f53eda43697d0b1
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content:
"Zylstra, P. J., 2018: Flammability dynamics in the Australian Alps. Austral Ecol., \r\n43(5), 578-591, doi:10.1111/aec.12594."


id: 57cf87b13ae268b9d0170f070d6340d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Glavovic, B.C., R. Dawson, W. Chow, M. Garschagen, M. Haasnoot, C. Singh, and A. Thomas, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n2: Cities and Settlements by the Sea. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of \r\nWorking Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, \r\nD.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, \r\nA. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2163-2194, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.019."


id: a4c2df0f1e7ee1ff84e705f9413d83c
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"Cities and settlements (C&S) by the sea are on the frontline \r\nof climate change--they face climate-compounded risks that \r\nare amongst the highest, but are a key source of innovation in \r\nclimate resilient development (high confidence1\r\n) {Sections 6.1, \r\n6.2; Chapter 7; Box 15.2; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter \r\n7; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; CCP2.2; SMCCP2.1}."


id: 39498599cbe91933f97aa7f692201731
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"A mix of interventions is necessary to manage coastal risks \r\nand build resilience over time. An adaptation-pathways \r\napproach sets out near-term 'low-regret' actions that align \r\nwith societal goals, facilitates implementation of a locally \r\nappropriate sequence of interventions in the face of uncertain \r\nclimate and development futures, and enables necessary \r\ntransformation (high confidence) {CCP2.3; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DEEP in Chapter 17, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}."


id: 5467ffd5bb9b2412cfd997d5fe2fb6a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Regardless of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, many C&S \r\nface severe disruption to coastal ecosystems and livelihoods \r\nby 2050--extending to all C&S by 2100 and beyond--caused \r\nby compound and cascading risks, including submergence of \r\nsome low-lying island states (very high confidence) {CCP2.1; \r\nCCP2.2; SROCC SPM, Chapter 4; 6.2}."


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"C&S, with particularly adverse impacts on poor and marginalised \r\ncommunities in the Global North and Global South (high confidence). \r\nOvercoming this gap is key to transitioning towards CRD (medium \r\nconfidence). Under higher warming levels and higher SLR, increasingly \r\ndichotomous coastal futures will become more entrenched (medium \r\nconfidence), with stark differences between more urbanised, resource\u0002rich coastal C&S dependent on hard protection, and more rural, \r\nresource-poor C&S facing displacement and migration {CCP2.3; \r\nCCP2.4, Chapter 18}."


id: 9cf8fcc06b0e9035a45f612e1336ccf8
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"if this is underpinned by sustained and ambitious mitigation to slow \r\ngreenhouse gas emission rates (high confidence) { CCP1.3.1.2; CCP2.3; \r\nCCP2.4; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}."


id: 684d82c456d4e0aaba472bc2d4ad0735
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Individual and collective choices founded on public-centred \r\nvalues and norms, as well as pro-social behaviour, help to \r\nfoster climate-resilient coastal development in C&S (high \r\nconfidence) {CCP2.4.1}."


id: 5e418771707fa60ed85172ef0fada65b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"The effectiveness of different approaches (e.g., awareness and \r\neducation, market-based and legal strategies) is mediated by how \r\nwell they address contextual and psychosocial factors influencing \r\nadaptation choices in coastal C&S (medium confidence). Adaptation \r\noptions accounting for risk perceptions and aligning with public values \r\ntend to be more socioculturally acceptable, and consequently facilitate \r\npro-social behavioural change {CCP2.4.1}."


id: 8e02b5d174a604b2c5dd5cb8f9c7ea4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Coastal adaptation innovators adopt more flexible, anticipatory \r\nand integrative strategies, combining technical and non-technical \r\ninterventions that account for uncertainties and facilitate effective \r\nresolution of conflicting interests and worldviews (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). Moreover, a core set of critical enablers is \r\nfoundational for C&S to chart CRD pathways. These include building \r\nand strengthening governance capabilities to tackle complex problems; \r\ntaking a long-term perspective in making short-term decisions; \r\nenabling more effective coordination across scales, sectors and \r\npolicy domains; reducing injustice, inequity, and social vulnerability; \r\nand unlocking the productive potential of coastal conflict while \r\nstrengthening local democracy (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n{Table CCP2.1, Table CCP2.2; CCP2.3; CCP2.4; Chapters 17, 18; Cross\u0002Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17}."


id: ce2c680c99048fceef7021c21e1a7da1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Locally appropriate institutional capabilities, including \r\nregulatory provisions and finances dedicated to maintaining \r\nhealthy coastal socioecological systems, build adaptive \r\ncapacity in C&S by the sea (high confidence) {CCP2.4}."


id: 719dc0f7d3cd55808de9d908f3398eda
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"C&S play a pivotal role in global aspirations to implement the Paris \r\nAgreement, advance the SDGs and foster CRD. Progress towards \r\nthese ends depends on the extent to which C&S mobilise urgent and \r\ntransformational changes to institutionalise enabling conditions, close \r\nthe coastal adaptation gap by addressing the drivers and root causes \r\nof exposure and vulnerability to climate-compounded coastal hazard \r\nrisks, and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (medium \r\nconfidence) {CCP2.4; Chapter 18}"


id: 6f4a5af6b04e0e4edbd3c3912cec2955
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Realising global aspirations for CRD depends on the extent \r\nto which coastal C&S institutionalise key enabling conditions \r\nand chart place-based adaptation pathways to close the \r\ncoastal adaptation gap, and on the extent to which they take \r\nurgent action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (medium \r\nconfidence) {CCP2.4; Table CCP2.1}."


id: 69c669c564f427d7c2ad1d7e1de5f319
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Extensive adaptation planning has been undertaken since the IPCC Fifth \r\nAssessment Report (AR5), but there has not been widespread effective \r\nimplementation, thus giving rise to a 'coastal adaptation gap' (high \r\nconfidence). To date, most interventions have been reactive and often \r\nrely on protective works alone (high confidence). The effectiveness \r\nof alternative interventions differs among C&S archetypes, while \r\ntheir feasibility is influenced by geomorphology and socioeconomic \r\nconditions as well as cultural, political and institutional considerations \r\n(very high confidence). Mismatches between adaptation needs and \r\npatterns of physical development are commonplace in many coastal "


id: de90c8ffec4253d8767bfe0a41f650fa
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"and associated critical infrastructure. Some estimates suggest that \r\n23-37% of the global population lives within 100 km of the shoreline \r\n(Nicholls and Small, 2002; Shi and Singh, 2003; Christopher Small and \r\nJoel E. Cohen, 2004; McMichael et al., 2020)."


id: d7a304e6c4d7d06449d85001a3fd14ac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"This cross-chapter paper examines the distinctive roles played by \r\nC&S by the sea in vulnerability and coastal hazard risk reduction, \r\nadaptation, resilience and sustainability in a changing climate. The \r\npaper builds upon evidence from AR5 (Wong et al., 2014), the Special \r\nReport on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC; \r\nMagnan et al., 2019; Oppenheimer et al., 2019) and draws material \r\nfrom across WGII AR6 (especially Chapters 3, 6, 9-15). It differs \r\nfrom the SLR-focused analysis of urban areas in SROCC (Section 4.3) \r\nthrough a more integrated assessment that distinguishes between \r\narchetypal coastal C&S (Section CCP2.1.2), sectoral risks to C&S by \r\nthe sea (Section CCP2.2), responses to address these risks (Section \r\nCCP2.3) and enabling conditions and lessons learned (Section CCP2.4)."


id: ae92959a8a500b3a9dc29b73f3786282
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"We define C&S as concentrated human habitation centres, whether \r\nsmall or large, rural or urban (Section 6.1.3). We highlight the unique \r\nexposure and vulnerability of coastal C&S resulting from rapid \r\nurbanisation at the narrow land-sea interface, and a high concentration \r\nof economic activity and at-risk people, many with long-standing \r\ncultural ties to the coast and dependence on coastal ecosystems that \r\nare prone to climate change impacts (high confidence; He and Silliman, \r\n2019; Lau et al., 2019; Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Sterzel et al., 2020)."


id: 54c408aca453622df48cf68a38c58bb6
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"Further, coastal cities located at higher elevations (e.g., Sao Paulo, \r\nBrazil) or distantly located inland along tidally influenced rivers (e.g., \r\nthe Recife Metropolitan Region, Brazil) also have populations and \r\ninfrastructure exposed to climate impacts. As such, the inclusion of \r\nC&S beyond the LECZ is warranted when assessing climate impacts \r\nand associated exposure, vulnerabilities and risks. The coastal \r\nzone includes some of the world's largest, most densely populated \r\nmegacities, as well as the fastest-growing urban areas. However, vast \r\ncoastal areas are sparsely populated, with populations in these regions \r\nconcentrated in smaller C&S, including along subsiding shorelines and \r\nin deltas (Nicholls and Small, 2002; McGranahan et al., 2007; Merkens \r\net al., 2018; Edmonds et al., 2020; Nicholls et al., 2021). From this wider \r\nperspective, climate change impacts on the coast directly or indirectly \r\naffect a large portion of the global population, economic activity "


id: 8777f68b65f77632c508f76e10d60978
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"Figure CCP2.1 |  Archetypal cities and settlements (C&S) affected by ocean, terrestrial, geological, atmospheric and hydrological hazards driven by climate \r\nchange. Coastal C&S are grouped by physical geomorphology along estuarine, deltaic or open coasts (Barragan and de Andres, 2015; Kay and Alder, 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2019). \r\nC&S are also classified according to relative inequality (e.g., urban Gini coefficient or poverty rates) and growth rates (e.g., recent population growth and increasing density of urban \r\nform or built-up areas over the past decade; OECD, 2018; CEIC, 2021; OECD, 2020). Settlement types (e.g., informal, low-density or high-density developments) and economic resources \r\n(e.g., urban per capita gross domestic product) are also reflected in their respective categories. The bottom map shows location, 2020 population size and geomorphological types."


id: cdcba7c8cc3107a326bec4721e432fe6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"coastal hazards, with settlement archetypes and the wider coastal \r\nzone subject to escalating risk (high confidence; Figure  CCP2.2; \r\nTable  SMCCP2.1 for examples of selected coastal C&S). Risks can \r\nvary markedly between different archetypes: C&S sited on deltaic and \r\nestuarine coasts face additional risks of pluvial flooding compared to \r\nopen coasts, while greater vulnerabilities arise in coastal settlements \r\nwith higher inequalities."


id: be71a7ffeba310bcf78de52e7bd5912c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"from national census data or areal extent of urban development \r\n(CEIC, 2021), as well as by relative urban inequalities estimated by \r\nGini coefficient data and urban-rural poverty rates (OECD, 2018; \r\nOECD, 2020). Combining geomorphological and socioeconomic data \r\naccounts for urban-rural interconnections and differences, with levels \r\nof capital generation, diversity of economic functions and human \r\ndevelopment indices having previously been used to discern cultural, \r\neconomic, administrative and political differences between cities and \r\ntheir hinterland (Blackburn et al., 2019; Rocle et al., 2020). For instance, \r\nthe ecological, cultural and economic footprint of tertiary sectors, for \r\nexample, coastal tourism associated with the Australian Great Barrier \r\nReef, stretches far beyond the nearest onshore settlement of Cairns \r\n(Bohnet and Pert, 2010; Brodie and Pearson, 2016)."


id: 2c0e016d3e65da5ed87996988e7342e9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Risks to C&S by the sea were extensively covered in SROCC \r\n(Oppenheimer et  al., 2019) and also in Chapters 3, 6 and regional \r\nchapters; in this paper, specific risks to livelihoods, activities, the built \r\nenvironment and ecosystems are assessed in detail in Supplementary \r\nMaterial SMCCP2.1. The ocean and climate impact drivers influencing \r\nthese risks are assessed in WGI (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021 ), which \r\ninclude extreme heat, pluvial floods from increasing rainfall intensity, \r\ncoastal erosion and coastal flood driven by increasing SLR, and \r\ntropical cyclone storm surges (high confidence). Further, Arctic coastal \r\nsettlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice \r\nretreat as well as from permafrost melt (high confidence)."


id: fe33733a4d359ab4eb97845c47feaac9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Coastal C&S are at the forefront of climate risk (FAQ CCP2.1). The \r\ndynamic interaction between ocean and climate drivers and varied \r\ncoastal geographies influences the character of coastal risks, including \r\nmany that are unique to C&S by the sea. The interaction of coastal \r\nhazards with exposure and vulnerability is differentiated by coastal \r\narchetypes, leading to distinct climate change-compounded risks and \r\nassociated responses (Figure CCP2.2; Section 1.3.1.2; Simpson et al., \r\n2021)."


id: a2f468637409e4803d2f1210abfe40bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Schematic of how climate- and ocean-drivers (from WGI Chapter 12.4.10.2) and consequential physical\r\nimpacts on coastal C&S influence risks assessed in (CCP2.2; Figure based on Simpson et al. (2021) and\r\nSection 1.3.1.2)."


id: 27707b06d9094e7f663b4d1816c85a62
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"2018; Camus et al., 2019; Christodoulou et al., 2019; Walsh et al., 2019; \r\nHanson and Nicholls, 2020; Yang and Ge, 2020; Izaguirre et al., 2021; \r\nLeon-Mateos et al., 2021; Ribeiro et al., 2021)."


id: 977d77f2f47f18c0bf55126bbe485b75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Many coastal C&S have densely built physical infrastructure and assets \r\nthat are exposed and vulnerable to climate change-compounded \r\ncoastal hazards. There is high confidence that SLR, land subsidence, \r\npoorly regulated coastal development and the rise of asset values \r\nare major drivers of future risk in all coastal archetypes and, without \r\nadaptation, built environment risks--especially in archetypes with \r\nhigh exposure due to rapid growth--are expected to rise considerably \r\nin this century across all RCPs (Koks et al., 2019; Magnan et al., 2019; \r\nOppenheimer et al., 2019; Abadie et al., 2020; Nicholls et al., 2021). \r\nArchetypes with more informal settlements are often disproportionally \r\nexposed to coastal risks (Roy et  al., 2016; Hallegatte et  al., 2017; \r\nBangalore et al., 2019)."


id: a979d6c10b24bae513b7af507b553558
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Figure CCP2.3 |  Map of coastal cities and settlements' risks according to IPCC regions, showing risks to people (number of people at risk from a 100-year coastal flood \r\nevent; Haasnoot et al., 2021b), risks of loss of coastal land (length of coast with more than 100 m retreat; Vousdoukas et al., 2020b), risks to the built environment (airports at \r\nrisk indicated by expected annual number of flights disrupted by coastal flooding (Yesudian and Dawson, 2021) and risk to wetlands (+- indicates positive or negative area change; \r\nSchuerch et al., 2018). Risks are reported against global mean sea level rise relative to 2020, depending on data availability."


id: 74dad897e62e08ef9f4dc44e1bf33959
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"provisioning of materials and food (e.g., wood, fishery habitat; Kok \r\net  al., 2021), amelioration of coastal hazards (e.g., attenuation of \r\nstorm surges, waves and containing erosion) (Section 2.3.2.3; Godfroy \r\net al., 2019; Schoutens et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2020b), climate change \r\nmitigation (through carbon sequestration; Macreadie et  al., 2017; \r\nRovai et  al., 2018; Ward, 2020), water quality regulation (nutrient, \r\npollutant and sediment retention and cycling; Wilson et al., 2018; Zhao \r\net al., 2018) and recreation and tourism (Pueyo-Ros et al., 2018)."


id: 89538ea1aa83186c66b647cf88feb226
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"vulnerability due to accelerating climate change (Wahl et al., 2015; Xu \r\net al., 2019; Kirezci et al., 2020)."


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"barriers, or with 'super-levees' enabling construction on top of them \r\n(high confidence; Table SMCCP2.1; Takagi et al., 2016; Haasnoot et al., \r\n2019; Hall et al., 2019; Esteban et al., 2020b)."


id: ce0a399bb670055c0160aa69f0b32a2e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"This section extends SROCC Chapter 4 (Oppenheimer et  al., 2019), \r\nwhich focused on SLR, and draws from Chapters 6 and 9-15 to cover \r\nall C&S archetypes. Adaptation interventions span psychosocial (e.g., \r\nawareness raising), economic (e.g., insurance), physical (e.g., retreat), \r\ntechnical (e.g., sea walls) and natural dimensions (e.g., wetland \r\nrestoration; Nicholls et  al., 2015). Adaptation strategies for coastal \r\nC&S are typically classified in terms of protect, accommodate, advance \r\nand retreat, which are used below."


id: 82422d0eb1b72e7bd2f3c482214ee4c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Some coastal cities have adapted to meters of SLR in the past, \r\nindicating that adaptation is feasible (Esteban et  al., 2020a), but \r\nfuture adaptation options are influenced by variations in projected \r\nsocioeconomic conditions and rates of SLR (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in \r\nChapter 3). To date, interventions are typically implemented reactively \r\nin response to extreme events (high confidence), but leading adaptors \r\nare increasingly proactive (medium confidence; Araos et  al., 2016; \r\nDulal, 2019; Dedekorkut-Howes et  al., 2020) and those that move \r\nfrom previously rigid to more adaptive and flexible solutions, using an \r\nadaptation-pathways approach that keeps options open in the face of \r\nuncertainty, have improved climate risk management (high confidence; \r\nSections  9.9.4; 10.5; 11.7; 12.5.5; 13.2; 14.7; 15.5; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DEEP in Chapter 17; Walker et al., 2013; Marchau et al., 2019)."


id: e6de47c82a3f99bb08a9d537669d7c08
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"Nature-based measures, such as retaining mangroves and marshes, \r\nhave been successful in reducing deaths and damage due to storm \r\nsurges (medium evidence, high agreement; Das and Vincent, 2009; \r\nSaleh and Weinstein, 2016; Narayan et al., 2017; Triyanti et al., 2017; \r\nHochard et  al., 2019; del Valle et  al., 2020), and reportedly provide \r\nUSD 23.2 billion yr-1 in storm protection services across the USA (Saleh \r\nand Weinstein, 2016). They are also a cost-effective strategy (medium \r\nconfidence) that provides C&S with additional co-benefits through \r\necosystem services (high confidence; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL "


id: 92edf16ca01a7d8bd3dc3ae852127158
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"Hard engineering protective measures are commonly used to reduce \r\ncoastal flooding and to drain or store excess water from intense \r\nprecipitation. Many coastal cities, in particular densely populated and \r\nhigh-resource archetypes, have planned and are planning to continue \r\na protection-based strategy, comprising, for example, breakwaters, sea \r\nwalls and/or dikes, which could be raised or complemented with large "


id: 1cd0164dcde3629f99cc32f0f8214929
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"in Chapter 2; Section  2.2.4; Narayan et  al., 2016; Depietri and \r\nMcPhearson, 2017; Morris et al., 2018; Reguero et al., 2018; Chausson \r\net al., 2020; Du et al., 2020; NIES and ISME, 2020; Reguero et al., 2020; \r\nSudmeier-Rieux et al., 2021)."


id: daf0af101c9be990ffaaf10c979231c9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Nature-based measures can reduce inland propagation of extreme \r\nsea levels (high tides, storm surges; high agreement; Godfroy et al., \r\n2019; James et al., 2020; Zhu et al., 2020b), with vertical reduction in \r\nwater levels ranging from 5 to 50 cm/km behind large mangroves and \r\nmarshes (Stark et al., 2015; Van Coppenolle and Temmerman, 2020). \r\nThey also attenuate wind-driven waves and reduce shoreline erosion \r\n(high agreement), and this can be by as much as 90% over stretches \r\nof 10-100 m for dense mangrove and marsh vegetation (medium \r\nevidence; Li et  al., 2014; Moller et  al., 2014; Vuik et  al., 2016; Vuik \r\net al., 2018; Godfroy et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2020a) and up to 40% \r\nfor dunes (Feagin et al., 2019). Coral reefs on average reduce wave \r\nenergy by 97% (Ferrario et al., 2014). Seagrass meadows attenuate \r\nwind waves to a lesser extent, and are only effective in water <0.2 m \r\ndeep (Ondiviela et al., 2014; Narayan et al., 2016; Morris et al., 2019)."


id: 3939f1692d728aef60d6efee4803b9b8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"Nature-based measures are increasingly implemented in combination \r\nwith hard protection measures (Hu et al., 2019; Schoonees et al., 2019; \r\nMorris et al., 2020; Oanh et al., 2020). They can reduce dike failure \r\nand increase design life where sediment accretion allows wetlands to \r\nrespond to SLR (Jongman, 2018; Vuik et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2020a). \r\nThere is high agreement that a hybrid strategy combining hard and \r\nsoft protection strategies is more effective and less costly under many \r\ncircumstances, and there is limited evidence that technical limits will \r\nbe encountered with such a strategy for low-lying C&S built on soft or \r\npermeable soil or with high exposure to monsoons and river discharges \r\n(Spalding et al., 2014; Sutton-Grier et al., 2015; Pontee et al., 2016; \r\nMorris et al., 2018; Reguero et al., 2018; Du et al., 2020; Morris et al., \r\n2020; Seddon et al., 2020; Waryszak et al., 2021)."


id: 31999568395fc50c723760430433b02f
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"An advance strategy creates new land by building seaward, which can \r\nreduce risk for the hinterland and the newly elevated land, either by \r\nland reclamation through landfilling or polderisation through planting \r\nof vegetation to support natural land accretion (Wang et  al., 2014; \r\nSengupta et al., 2018). Advance has occurred in all archetypes (high \r\nconfidence), from open coasts (e.g., Singapore) and small atolls (e.g., \r\nHulhumale in the Maldives; Hinkel et al., 2018; Brown et al., 2020), to "


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"advance can have significant negative impacts on coastal ecosystems \r\nand livelihoods, requires substantial financial and material resources \r\nand time to build, and may be subject to land subsidence (Jeuken et al., \r\n2014; Garschagen et  al., 2018; Brown et  al., 2019; NYCEDC, 2019; \r\nOppenheimer et al., 2019; Sengupta et al., 2020; Bendixen et al., 2021)."


id: 32bf57df7fab1e0a345ed84e1b91b6d6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"cities on estuaries (e.g., Rotterdam) and deltas (e.g., Shanghai Sengupta \r\net al., 2020), and mountainous coasts (e.g., Hong Kong SAR, China). \r\nEarth observations show that between 14,000 and 33,700 km2\r\n of land \r\nhas been gained in coastal areas over the past 30 years, the dominant \r\ndrivers being urban development and activities like fish farming \r\n(Donchyts et  al., 2016; Zhang et  al., 2017; Mentaschi et  al., 2018). \r\nAdvancing seawards through large floating structures may be a viable \r\noption in the future (Wang et al., 2019; Setiadi et al., 2020; Wang and \r\nWang, 2020) but is at an experimental stage, and, so far, only applied in \r\ncalm water within a city as part of an accommodate strategy (Scussolini \r\net al., 2017; Penning-Rowsell, 2020; Storbjork and Hjerpe, 2021)."


id: 5a4ca5cd75fbc9819885fead452dac7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Retreat is a strategy to reduce exposure and eventually risks facing \r\ncoastal C&S by moving people, assets and activities out of coastal \r\nhazard zones (Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). This includes adaptive \r\nmigration, involuntary displacement and planned relocation of \r\npopulation and assets from the coast (Section  7.2.6; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox CB-MIGRATE in Chapter 7)."


id: 99de4c221f66bce37e555c408da7994e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Advance is seen as an attractive option to adapt to SLR in growing cities \r\nthat are already densely populated and have limited available land \r\nfor safe development, with a moderate to high adaptive capacity. But "


id: 10db7886474ebbd8894ec3de5f7d8f31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 129
content:
"1. Successful pilot, lack of development space triggers advance, or protect due to lack of \r\nsupport, time or finance."


id: 2354f9df3d75118579787109f45079b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 3012
content:
"ygy\r\n7. Frequent flooding, flooding creates access problems.\r\n8. Warming, limited space, human pressures, frequent flooding.\r\n9. Unaffordable, salinisation, pumping limit, lack of support.\r\n10. Long lead time to align with social goals and ensure just outcomes.\r\n11. Lack of acceptance and equity triggers shift."


id: d05271ec82ac08a7bb071420bdf63e55
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Figure CCP2.4 |  Generic adaptation pathways for coastal cities and settlements (a) and the typical solution space, with illustrative pathways for three \r\ncoastal archetypes (b). As risk increases under rising sea levels, solutions need to be combined or sequenced in order to contain risk. Pathways involve different trade-offs. \r\nBased on Tables SMCCP2.1-2.3; Chapters 11 and 13; Magnan and Duvat (2020); Lawrence et al. (2020); Haasnoot et al. (2019). Depending on local conditions, archetype and \r\nrisk tolerance, alternative pathways are needed and possible to contain risk. Dashed lines indicate uncertainty in the pathway (a); dashed and plain borders are used for illustrating \r\nvarious local situations within each archetype (b)."


id: f8c7910ae0bb1d4445cbdab300b85efc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 36653
content:
"et al., 2019). A portfolio of hard, soft and nature-based interventions \r\ncan be used to implement strategies to protect, accommodate, retreat \r\nand advance, individually or in combination."


id: d09d0d47e9a96161c8dd0b390e3f294b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 30347
content:
"Planned relocation in coastal C&S with high hazard exposure and \r\nclimate impacts is already occurring and has been increasing in \r\nfrequency (medium confidence; Hino et  al., 2017; Mortreux et  al., \r\n2018), with some small islands purchasing land in other countries to \r\nfacilitate movement (Klepp, 2018). In the Arctic, the pressure to relocate \r\naway from the coast is expected to rise given the interacting effects \r\nof permafrost thaw and coastal erosion. Native villages in Alaska \r\nare already relocating (Ristroph, 2017; Ristroph, 2019). Involuntary \r\nresettlement may be a secondary effect of large-scale hard coastal \r\nprotection projects, or inner-city river and canal regulation. In Jakarta, \r\nfor example, a new giant seawall project involves resettling coastal \r\nhouseholds along large parts of the coastline (Garschagen et al., 2018)."


id: 530cabb20275831b711361f26e1bf6b2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 10526
content:
"The strategy and the portfolio of interventions can be adjusted in \r\nresponse to new information about SLR and other climate risks \r\naccording to economic, environmental, social, institutional, technical \r\nor other objectives. In cases of rapid SLR, it may be necessary to \r\nimplement a short-term protection strategy to buy time to implement \r\nmore transformative and enduring strategies (high confidence; Du \r\net al., 2020; Lawrence et al., 2020; Morris et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., \r\n2021a). There is high agreement that combining and sequencing \r\nadaptation interventions can reduce risk over time (Du et al., 2020; \r\nMorris et  al., 2020). Phasing interventions can help to spread costs \r\nand minimise regret (de Ruig et al., 2019), provided options are kept \r\nopen to adjust to changing conditions (Buurman and Babovic, 2016; \r\nHaasnoot et al., 2019; Hall et al., 2019)."


id: c385167da95213d6eb8c2eeb92e81d0d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 28330
content:
"Increased migration is to be expected across different climate scenarios, \r\nbut there is limited evidence and medium agreement about the scale \r\nof climate-induced migration at the coast (Oppenheimer et al., 2019; \r\nChapter 16, RKR on peace). Planned relocation is expected to rise in \r\nC&S in response to SLR and other coastal hazards (high agreement, \r\nmedium evidence; Siders et al., 2019). Relocation has predominantly \r\nbeen reactive to date, but increased attention is being given to pre\u0002emptive resettlement and the potential pathways and necessary \r\ngovernance, finance and institutional arrangements to support this \r\nstrategy (Ramm et al., 2018; Lawrence et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., \r\n2021a). There is limited evidence about the costs of planned relocation \r\nand retreat more generally (Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: 20611ca1d4f8ac19a751961e407bce5f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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"In islands, hybrid options of nature-based (where space and \r\nenvironmental conditions allow) and protection measures (on wealthy, \r\nalready densely populated islands) could reduce risk for low SLR in the \r\nnext few decades (Section 15.5). Where feasible, retreat is a compelling \r\noption to reduce risk (Figure CCP2.4). With higher rates and levels of \r\nSLR in the medium to long term, financial, governance and material \r\nbarriers may differentiate resource-rich and more rural islands, leading \r\nto a dichotomy between which islands retreat or can rely on protection \r\nfor a period of time."


id: eaac559dd7cf57b7e8530246b8dc1294
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Here we distil enabling conditions and lessons learned from C&S \r\narchetypes adapting to coastal risk (Table SMCCP2.1; Table SMCCP2.2; \r\nSections 6.4; 9.9.4; 10.5; 10.6; 11.7; 11.8; 12.5.5; 13.6.2; 14.7.2; 15.6)."


id: a04ad9956da9f2bd8f3a8512484a13d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"No single adaptation intervention comprehensively addresses coastal \r\nrisks and enables CRD. An adaptation-pathways approach can facilitate \r\nlong-term thinking, foresee maladaptive consequences and lock-ins, \r\nand address dynamic risk in the face of relentless and potentially high \r\nSLR; it can also frame adaptation as a series of manageable steps over \r\ntime (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Figure CCP2.4; Haasnoot "


id: d4f93017f0afe8ebe15ef742d68f2eea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Changing behaviours and practices are a critical enabler of adaptation \r\nin coastal C&S. Behavioural enablers include using economic, \r\ninformational, sociocultural and psychological incentives to motivate \r\nadaptation actions (van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019; Gibbs, 2020), "


id: 602213d00ba5b667004d6ca7c7331cb7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 12698
content:
"for example leveraging Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge \r\n(IKLK) and religious beliefs to incentivise adaptation (Hiwasaki et al., \r\n2014; Ford et  al., 2015), implementing subsidies/bans to incentivise \r\nsustainable aquaculture (Condie et  al., 2014; Krause et  al., 2020), \r\nproviding localised flood warnings and forecasts to inform individual \r\nrisk perceptions and risk management (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2014; \r\nGibbs, 2020) or incentivise risk insurance (Bradt, 2019)."


id: d3b59b3cc6034b6b403f27adc5047705
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30830
content:
"literature affirms that behavioural interventions are more readily taken \r\nup if they are aligned with cultural practices, norms and beliefs; are on \r\ntemporal scales within peoples' planning horizons; and if they build \r\nupon relationships of trust and legitimacy (Donner and Webber, 2014; \r\nHerrick, 2018; Schneider et al., 2020)."


id: 2f2028a6e0c3330d0f904f30345c0fb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 4843
content:
"There is high evidence with medium agreement that public attitudes \r\nand perceptions of climate risks significantly influence individual \r\nadaptation behaviour across all coastal archetypes (Bradt, 2019; \r\nBuchanan et al., 2019; Javeline et al., 2019). Information on climate \r\nrisks and impacts (e.g., flood warnings, SLR projections) strongly shapes \r\npublic perceptions of climate risks. It is most effective at incentivising \r\nand enabling adaptation behaviour if provided on meaningful spatial \r\nand temporal scales, with guidance about how to interpret the \r\ninformation (medium evidence, high agreement; Gibbs, 2020; Cools \r\net al., 2016). Further, there is medium evidence, high agreement that \r\nintegrating climate information with existing knowledge systems, \r\nsuch as local norms and beliefs and IKLK, is critical to improve public \r\nacceptability and develop context-specific solutions (Ford et al., 2015)."


id: 4431d42b6cc3e732f63dcea39fbc7d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Lack of financial resources is a key constraint affecting all coastal \r\narchetypes (high confidence; Table SMCCP2.2). Adaptation to coastal \r\nhazards is costly: the global costs of protecting coastal areas with \r\nlevees (annual investment and maintenance costs) are estimated at \r\nUSD 12-71 billion for 2100 with SLR up to 1.2 m (Hinkel et al., 2014). \r\nBroadly speaking, it is cost effective to contain coastal hazard risk \r\nin the short to medium term in densely populated wealthy localities \r\nby using protective works, but such measures are unaffordable in \r\ndispersed poorer coastal C&S (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018)."


id: d43b8ad9d1db7d1b9af156258fcf4e98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Archetypes with high adaptive capacity may currently have financial \r\nresources to meet adaptation needs, but such funding may be \r\nunsustainable in the long term. In Catalonia, while public funds are \r\ncurrently used to finance beach nourishment, these costs will increase \r\nwith SLR and it is unclear whether public finance will remain a feasible \r\nsource (Hinkel et  al., 2018). Even in relatively richer municipalities, \r\nfinancing adaptation is constrained by other urban priorities (Bisaro \r\nand Hinkel, 2018). In Europe, shifting responsibilities from national \r\ngovernments to transnational and local actors has resulted in reduced \r\nnational budgets for coastal adaptation investment and increased \r\npressure on local authorities to raise public funds for adaptation \r\nwithout alienating electoral bases (Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018)."


id: 3a3aaa766c17466f782eab6fa6dac6bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"A second key enabler of coastal adaptation behaviour is self-efficacy \r\nor belief in one's capacity to undertake adaptation. There is medium \r\nevidence, high agreement that high risk perception is in itself insufficient \r\nto motivate people to undertake adaptation (Fox-Rogers et al., 2016; \r\nRoder et al., 2019; Gibbs, 2020) and needs to be supplemented with \r\nsupportive policy and financial provisions to enable adaptation (Fox\u0002Rogers et al., 2016)."


id: ae5ad0c1a5cd525eabfb8bf05c2f5de9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Third, there is medium evidence on how trust in state-led, planned \r\nadaptation measures can hinder or enable individual adaptation (van \r\nValkengoed and Steg, 2019; Schneider et  al., 2020). As an enabler, \r\ntrust in early warnings can mitigate flood risk by incentivising \r\nevacuation (Binh et  al., 2020) and high trust can help overcome \r\nuncertainty attached to projected climate impacts and/or adaptation \r\ndecisions (Frederiksen, 2014). As a barrier, low trust can disincentivise \r\nadaptation, for example willingness to pay for flood insurance (Roder \r\net al., 2019) or public support for managed retreat (Hanna et al., 2020). \r\nParadoxically, high trust in existing adaptation measures can reduce \r\npeople's perceived need for ongoing adaptation (e.g., levees potentially \r\nreducing individual flood-proofing actions). Adaptation decisions also \r\nmanifest 'single-action bias', with modest cost-adaptation actions in \r\nthe present disincentivising further adaptation (Buchanan et al., 2019)."


id: 4756c064ad8653f598c239a30f60abcf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"Several tools to incentivise adaptation behaviour are being tested \r\naround the world. For example, nudges and boosts3\r\n are being \r\nexperimented with to shape individual risk beliefs and the demand \r\nfor flood insurance (Bradt, 2019); ordinances are being used to ban, \r\nauthorise or limit certain activities (Herrick, 2018); subsidies and \r\nfinancial support are being used to incentivise adaptation such as \r\nsubsidised beach nourishment (McNamara et  al., 2015); and zoning \r\nrestrictions and building codes restrict or guide climate-resilient \r\ninfrastructural development (Schneider et  al., 2020). Overall, the "


id: 17424a2881c3cdfeecbebe61b850cdc7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"C&S in the Global South also face financial challenges in addressing \r\nloss and damage due to climate-induced slow-onset and extreme \r\nevents. Financial support to address both quantifiable damages and \r\nnon-economic losses through measures such as climate-resilient "


id: f29332c19a6614d77ad4ce5999b88ac4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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content:
"migration was estimated to be optimal in terms of economic costs \r\n(Lincke and Hinkel, 2021). Considering coastal migration as part of the \r\nsolution space could lower global costs in investment and maintenance \r\nfor SLR protection by a factor of 2-4 in the 21st century, but would \r\nresult in large land losses and high levels of migration for South and \r\nSoutheast Asia in particular, and in relative terms, small island nations \r\nwould suffer most. The need to consider place attachment, community \r\nrelationships, livelihoods and the spiritual and cultural significance \r\nof settlements limits the application of BCR as a tool for coastal \r\nadaptation decisions in these contexts (Thomas and Benjamin, 2020). \r\nMoreover, there is limited knowledge on trade-offs, including BCR, of \r\nalternative adaptation options and pathways at a global to regional \r\nscale, in particular over the long term (beyond 2100)."


id: e53554b12c7f7b60b402a59fd2a1d034
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:19
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vector_id: 33557
content:
"reconstruction after extreme weather events as well as national and \r\nlocal-level emergency contingency funds are lacking, which has been \r\nan issue of contention in international policy arenas (Bahinipati et al., \r\n2017; Wewerinke-Singh and Salili, 2020; Martyr-Koller et al., 2021)."


id: 2ffafd42eb97d9b5ab53ff0c68710ab1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Even where BCR is high, finance may be inaccessible, as it is \r\nchallenging to convert the long-term benefits of adaptation into the \r\nrevenue streams that may be needed to initially finance adaptation \r\ninvestments (Hinkel et al., 2018). For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, \r\nVietnam, despite high BCR, high costs of flood protection (USD 1.4-\r\n2.6  billion) have prevented such adaptation measures from being \r\nimplemented (Hinkel et al., 2018; Cao et al., 2021). Moreover, drawing \r\nfrom places as distinct as small communities in Fiji (Neef et al., 2018) \r\nand Belize (Karlsson and Hovelsrud, 2015), and megacities like New \r\nYork City and Shanghai (Oppenheimer et al., 2019), BCR provides only \r\na limited view and consideration of feasibility, effectiveness, efficiency, \r\nequity, culture, politics and power, and attachment to place has a \r\ngreater chance of fostering CRD (high confidence)."


id: abad4302963de17677813e76fe3b4c15
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Explicitly identifying the benefits, or goods and services, that are \r\nprovided by coastal adaptation is critical to supplement limited \r\ngovernment funds and engage a broader set of financial tools and \r\nactors (Woodruff et al., 2020). Matching goods and services provided \r\nby particular adaptation strategies to specific beneficiaries helps \r\nto identify the range of fair and equitable financial tools. In the \r\nNetherlands, public fundings through state, regional and local entities \r\nhave independent tax revenue systems to provide the funding needed \r\nto maintain flooding infrastructure (Hinkel et al., 2018)."


id: 857a5202014f0e6216f55e86a785750a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"We start with a synopsis of governance settings within which coastal \r\nadaptation and CRD choices are made, and spotlight factors hindering \r\nand enabling translation of adaptation into practice. Then, building \r\nupon and extending the SROCC analysis of enablers and lessons \r\nlearned in responding to SLR (Oppenheimer et al., 2019), we assess key \r\ngovernance challenges, related enablers and lessons learned (Tables \r\nCCP2.1, Section CCP2.2)."


id: 54e6db6f6a03a9b6346b996a80b076f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"However, BCR values may be low and adaptation investment may \r\nnot be financially viable for small coastal settlements, less densely \r\npopulated poorer coasts or isolated communities (medium confidence).\r\nConsidering BCRs of protection and coastal migration across a range \r\nof SLR and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for the \r\n21st century, a higher BCR was found for protection of only 3% of the \r\nglobal coastline protecting 78% of the coastal population and 92% of \r\nglobal coastal floodplain assets, while for the remaining coasts, coastal "


id: d976901b4ff3cadf533684f45308f756
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Governance arrangements and practices are embedded in the \r\nsociopolitical and institutional fabric of coastal C&S. Consequently, "


id: c22e85eca1982c97efe9229815510b60
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Table CCP2.1 |  Governance challenges and critical enablers for addressing coastal hazard risk in C&S"


id: 9dcc8d1af80e15a8991811d49376f1f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"barriers and enablers for adapting to climate change at the coast \r\nand charting pathways for CRD reflect more general constraints and \r\nopportunities (high confidence; Meerow, 2017; Rocle and Salles, 2018; \r\nRosendo et al., 2018; Di Giulio et al., 2019; Holscher et al., 2019; Van \r\nAssche et al., 2020; Williams et al., 2020). Local-level action is often \r\nconstrained: 231  cities in the USA report weak leadership, lack of \r\nfunding and staffing, and low political will (Fu, 2020). A meta-analysis \r\nof coastal municipal planning documents in Australia shows that few \r\nlocalities have moved beyond risk assessment (Bradley et al., 2015). \r\nCoastal C&S tend to prefer strategies that protect and accommodate \r\nexisting coastline assets in the sense of a 'fix and forget' approach \r\n(Gibbs, 2015), rather than enduring proactive adaptation (Cooper and \r\nPile, 2014)."


id: baa70b2bf3eb41218a1634693c1ae6a3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Effective and accountable local leadership can help to mobilise \r\ncapacities, resources and climate awareness within coastal C&S. \r\nStrong leadership is associated with agenda-setting authorities and \r\nthe ability to navigate complex institutional interests towards more \r\nstrategic planning efforts (high confidence; Ferguson et  al., 2013; \r\nAnguelovski et al., 2014; Chu et al., 2017; Valdivieso and Andersson, \r\n2018; Fink, 2019; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2020). Policy leadership can \r\npositively influence the motivation and initiative of municipal officers \r\n(Lassa and Nugraha, 2014; Wijaya et al., 2020), whilst local leadership "


id: adef2efc360e6d77a49bfcbd1d596937
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24901
content:
"environmental knowledge. Case studies from Indonesia, the Philippines \r\nand Timor-Leste show that Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge \r\nand customary laws can support environmental awareness, strengthen \r\nsocial cohesion and help communities to better respond to climate \r\nimpacts (Hiwasaki et al., 2015). Research from coastal Cambodia shows \r\nthat inclusive governance arrangements can target empowerment of \r\nthe most vulnerable groups to facilitate better adaptation behaviour \r\nand mainstream adaption knowledge through both formal and informal \r\neducation at the community level (Ung et al., 2016)."


id: dc1a9155c6ba2372ffcee941cf3b3333
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content:
"The above critical enablers and lessons learned from around the \r\nworld establish a strong foundation for charting pathways for CRD \r\nin coastal C&S. These pathways will necessarily vary in different C&S, \r\nand synergies and commonalities within different coastal archetypes \r\ncan be leveraged. Pivotal is recognition of the narrow window of time \r\nremaining to translate embryonic risk assessment and adaptation \r\nplanning into concerted implementation efforts. C&S by the sea could \r\nbe the centres of innovation that lead the way to advancing SDGs \r\nthrough to 2030 and CRD beyond this decade (see Section 2.1.1)."


id: bc32be1600f1316163f69d38980b1bba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Tables CCP2.1 and CCP2.2 summarise key insights about key \r\ngovernance challenges facing archetypal coastal C&S around the \r\nworld as well as associated critical enablers and lessons learned to \r\naddress climate change-compounded coastal hazard risk (based on \r\nsynthesis of Table SMCCP2.3)."


id: d3850cdd133af99c659d6a01fb83a113
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"There is no silver bullet or panacea. But developing locally appropriate \r\nyet flexible pathways for CRD will help coastal communities to address \r\nescalating risks and uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r\n17). Effective pathways are based on robust integrated information \r\nabout dynamic coastal hazard risk and plausible interventions. \r\nHowever, their successful implementation requires multi-scale \r\ngovernance arrangements and practices able to bridge different \r\nadministrative and sectoral capacities in the coastal zone; effective and \r\naccountable leadership; and inclusive decision-making arrangements \r\nto enable participation, manage conflicts and trade-offs, engender "


id: 2af7a7d4052cbf208855af87a712747f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"In sum, prospects for addressing climate risk in archetypal coastal C&S \r\naround the world depend on the extent to which societal choices--\r\nand associated governance processes and practices--address the \r\ndrivers and root causes of exposure and social vulnerability (very high \r\nconfidence). Coastal C&S are more able to address these challenges \r\nwhen authorities work with local communities and vulnerable groups \r\nin particular, and with stakeholders from the local to national levels \r\nand beyond, to chart adaptation pathways that enable sustained \r\nreduction in the exposure and vulnerability of those most at risk (very "


id: 4064e51c79abe4c775beb544b784d504
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"local ownership, and promote equity and justice in coastal adaptation \r\nplans and policies. Further, the feasibility of adaptation strategies \r\nand interventions, especially those entailing changing behaviours \r\nand practices, is increased by recognising and incorporating peoples' \r\nvalues and beliefs and Indigenous and local knowledge systems, as \r\nwell as the voices of women and vulnerable groups."


id: 6705f2de18da1a84d7ae73c3ef6e2f50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"as more transformative interventions. Under higher levels of global \r\nwarming, decisions will need to be made faster or respond to higher \r\nlevels of SLR (high confidence; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3). This \r\nis particularly challenging in coastal C&S characterised by the inertia \r\nand path dependency of development choices, with long lead times \r\nfor adaptation planning and implementation, and the long design life \r\nand societal impact of many interventions. Given the risks assessed in \r\ncoastal C&S, the scale of climate impacts globally will depend to a large \r\nextent on whether coastal settlements develop and implement pre\u0002emptive and flexible adaptation pathways, and whether a significant \r\nand timely reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achieved in C&S \r\nand globally (high confidence)."


id: 9275d03c2655f7b5e0790494936eb63f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Coastal C&S are on the frontline of observed climate change impacts \r\nand future risk (high confidence). Difficult choices will be made as \r\nclimate- and ocean-driven extremes become more frequent. In the next \r\nfew decades, many coastal regions and C&S will have the opportunity \r\nto take actions to avoid and reduce risk, through incremental as well "


id: 82a8950f33205f680ff13b3b4efde012
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Coastal cities and settlements (C&S) by the sea face a much greater risk than comparable inland C&S because they concentrate a large \r\nproportion of the global population and economic activity, whilst being exposed and vulnerable to a range of climate- and ocean-compounded \r\nhazard risks driven by climate change. Coastal C&S range from small settlements along waterways and estuaries, to small island states with \r\nmaritime populations and/or beaches and atolls that are major tourist attractions, large cities that are major transport and financial hubs in \r\ncoastal deltas, to megacities and even megaregions with several coastal megacities."


id: f8239f2878ded8352fca2d0cae0c5d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"The concentration of people, economic activity and infrastructure dynamically interacts with coast-specific hazards to \r\nmagnify the exposure of these C&S to climate risks. While large inland cities and coastal settlements can be exposed \r\nto climate-driven hazards, such as urban heat islands and air pollution, the latter are also subject to distinctive \r\nocean-driven hazards, such as sea level rise (SLR), exposure to tropical cyclones and storm surges, flooding from \r\nextreme tides and land subsidence from decreased sediment deposition along coastal deltas and estuaries. With \r\nclimate change increasing, the intensity and frequency of hazards under all future warming levels and thus the risks \r\nto lives, livelihoods and property are especially acute in C&S by the sea."


id: 50ad921dcfe819f492424e7e17811d5a
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content:
"Coastal cities are diverse in shape, size, growth patterns and trajectories, and in terms of access to cultural, financial \r\nand ecosystem resources and services. Along deltaic and estuarine archetypes, cities most vulnerable to a changing \r\nclimate have relatively high levels of poverty and inequality in terms of access to resources and ecosystem services, \r\nwith large populations and dense built environments translating into higher exposure to coastal climate risks."


id: 127d785871325625535c77c327a86d09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"These climate risks at the coast can also be magnified by compounding and cascading effects due to non-climate \r\ndrivers directly affecting vulnerable peri- and ex-urban areas inland. These risks include disruption to transport \r\nsupply chains and energy infrastructure from airports and power plants sited along the coastline, as occurred in \r\nNew York City, USA, during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The impacts can be felt around the world through globalised \r\neconomic and geopolitical linkages, for example through maritime trade and port linkages."


id: d2585ee018ebcdb73d127b36f1ab5f18
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"For open coasts, settlements on low-lying small island states and the Arctic are especially vulnerable to climate \r\nchange, and SLR impacts in particular, well before 2100. While the economic risks may not compare to the scale \r\nof those faced in coastal megacities with high per capita GDP, the existential risks to some nations and an array of \r\ndistinctive livelihoods, cultural heritage and ways of life in these settlements are great, even with modest SLR."


id: 84e9c7067d30dbc305bace17590f67ba
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 18430
content:
"FAQ CCP2.2 | What actions can be taken by coastal cities and settlements to reduce climate change risk?"


id: 74a1123e39561f2b620035cc0a30fa81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 15943
content:
"Sea level rise (SLR) responds to climate change over long timeframes and will continue even after successful mitigation. However, rapid global \r\nmitigation of greenhouse gases significantly reduces risks to coastal cities and settlements (C&S), and, crucially, buys time for adaptation."


id: bcbb940b3f119c2d366b7ed9d770e7f9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 27267
content:
"Appropriate actions to reduce climate change risks in coastal C&S depend on the scale and speed of coastal change \r\ninteracting with unfolding local circumstances, reflecting the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and response to risks."


id: c59f06cea2d744d8c4227d6656ff6e0d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"'Hard' protection, like dikes and seawalls, can reduce the risk of flooding for several metres of SLR in some coastal \r\nC&S. These are most cost effective for densely populated cities and some islands, but may be unaffordable for \r\npoorer regions. Although these measures reduce the likelihood of coastal flooding, residual risk remains, and hard \r\nprotection typically has negative consequences for natural systems. In low-lying protected coastal zones, draining \r\nriver and excess water will increasingly be hampered, eventually requiring pumping or transferring to alternative \r\nstrategies."


id: b70dd0a9515d3a6a10655bea10691744
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Whereas structures can disrupt natural beach morphology processes, sediment-based protection replenishes \r\nbeaches. These have lower impact on adjacent beaches and coastal ecology and lower costs for construction and \r\nmaintenance compared to hard structures. Another form of 'soft' protection involves establishing, rehabilitating \r\nand preserving coastal ecosystems, like marshes, mangroves, seagrass, coral reefs and dunes, providing 'soft' \r\nprotection against storm surges, reducing coastal erosion and offering additional benefits including food, materials \r\nand carbon sequestration. However, these are less effective where there is limited space in the coastal zone, limited \r\nsediment supply and under higher rates of SLR."


id: 5a2de61f82c59f23425c510dc1d137ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Coastal settlements can 'avoid' new flood and erosion risks by preventing development in areas exposed to \r\ncurrent and future coastal hazards. Where development already exists, settlements can 'accommodate' climate \r\nchange impacts through, among other things, land-use zoning, raising ground or buildings above storm surge \r\nlevels, installing flood-proofing measures within and outside properties, and early warning systems. Improving the \r\ncapacity of urban drainage, incorporating nature-based solutions within urban areas and managing land upstream \r\nof settlements to reduce runoff from the hinterland reduces the risk of compound flood events. More radically, \r\nland can also be reclaimed from the sea, which offers opportunities for further development but has impacts on the \r\nnatural system and wider implications for the trajectory of development."


id: f4b6d49e10b8f37f086e67c3b66d2025
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Coastal risks and impacts such as floods, loss of fisheries or tourism, or salinization of groundwater require people \r\nto change behaviour to adapt, such as diversifying livelihoods or moving away from low-lying areas. Currently, \r\nmost of these practices are reactive and help people adjust to/cope with current impacts. While a critical part of \r\ncoastal adaptation, changing behaviour can be enabled by supportive policies and financial structures aligned with \r\nsociocultural values and worldviews."


id: 4a6e33880e685c8a8ca030e9cc605a20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 9113
content:
"Where risks are very high or resources are insufficient to manage risks, submergence or erosion of coastal C&S will \r\nbe inevitable, requiring 'retreat' from the coastline. This is the outlook for millions of people in the coming decades, \r\nincluding those living in river deltas, Arctic communities, small islands and low-lying small settlements in poor and \r\nwealthy nations. Whilst the impacts of retreat on communities can be devastating, the prospect of many C&S and \r\neven whole nations being permanently inundated in the coming centuries underscores the imperative for urgent \r\naction."


id: e1ccfc0f033eb2f938bc622420a2ec95
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 33022
content:
"Crucial to making choices about how to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change in \r\ncoastal C&S is to establish institutions and governance practices supporting climate resilient development--a mix \r\nand sequence of mitigation and adaptation actions--that are fair, just and inclusive as well as technically and \r\neconomically effective across successive generations."


id: bafbfe2aef18b9f29a61aa265b36589b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 26956
content:
"FAQ CCP2.3 | Considering the wide-ranging and interconnected climate and development challenges coastal cities \r\nand settlements face, how can more climate resilient development pathways be enabled?"


id: 10ee02ed713703f9c3b85ff36dd0d585
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Notwithstanding the many interconnected challenges faced, from more frequent and intense extreme events to \r\nthe COVID-19 pandemic, many coastal C&S are experimenting with ways to pivot towards CRD. Critical enablers \r\nhave been identified and lesson learned, which, if translated into practice, will enhance the prospects for advancing \r\nthe SDGs and charting pathways for CRD that are appropriate to local contexts and foster human well-being and \r\nplanetary health."


id: cc2033865cf56e9e26f467d3c3d7d791
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Leads: Alisher Mirzabaev (Uzbekistan), Lindsay C. Stringer (United \r\nKingdom)"


id: 4ca9a9be6007b87f233318da8dfb1acc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Authors: Tor A. Benjaminsen (Norway), Patrick Gonzalez (USA), Rebecca \r\nHarris (Australia), Mostafa Jafari (Iran), Nicola Stevens (South Africa), Cristina Maria Tirado \r\n(Spain/USA), Sumaya Zakieldeen (Sudan)"


id: 27a2f3069a837b01e7685f076846aa78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Elena Abraham (Argentina), Dulce Flores-Renteria \r\n(Mexico), Houda Ghazi (Morocco), Pierre Hiernaux (France), Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Oksana \r\nLipka (Russian Federation), Nausheen Mazhar (Pakistan), Nicholas Middleton (United Kingdom), \r\nUriel Safriel (Israel), Ranjay K. Singh (India), Fei Wang (China)"


id: b6b2fc574c99d80a4ab9f689551fa72a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Mirzabaev, A., L.C. Stringer, T.A. Benjaminsen, P. Gonzalez, R. Harris, M. Jafari, N. Stevens, C.M. Tirado, and S. Zakieldeen, \r\n2022: Cross-Chapter Paper 3: Deserts, Semiarid Areas and Desertification. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation \r\nand Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, \r\nS. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, \r\nNY, USA, pp. 2195-2231, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.020."


id: ffd0c4d946df7a3f2b2fde72a636432f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"in some drylands since the 1980s. Widespread woody encroachment \r\nhas occurred in many shrublands and savannas in Africa, Australia, \r\nNorth America and South America, due to a combination of land \r\nuse change, changes in rainfall, fire suppression and CO2 fertilization \r\nwhich, together with unsustainable management, alters biodiversity \r\nand reduces ecosystem services, such as water availability and grazing \r\npotential {3.2.1, 3.2.2}."


id: dbd35d4b1ea477f67d3245fcf1612bde
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32103
content:
"This cross-chapter paper on 'Deserts, semiarid areas and desertification' \r\nupdates and extends Chapter 3 on 'Desertification' in the IPCC Special \r\nReport on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) (Mirzabaev et al., 2019). \r\nIt assesses new information and links it to the findings across the \r\nchapters of Working Group II's contribution as well as relevant chapters \r\nof Working Group I's contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report \r\n(AR6), with an added focus on deserts which were outside the scope \r\nof the SRCCL."


id: 79c9c800849cb6dcc048994c466bc706
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"harness multiple benefits for managing the impacts of climate change \r\nand desertification while accelerating progress towards sustainable \r\ndevelopment in deserts and semiarid areas. {3.4}"


id: c2336d16df8c0f6a92d46a45db257668
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28137
content:
"natural ecosystems face pressures, including high population growth \r\nrates, weak or poor governance, low investment, unemployment and \r\npoverty, market distortions and underestimates of the value of drylands \r\n(Stringer et al., 2017; Bawden, 2018). These pressures intersect with \r\nbroader societal challenges such as conflict and civil unrest (Okpara \r\net  al., 2015; Almer et  al., 2017), which together, can contribute to \r\nhuman displacement (Section  16.2.3.10) in some drylands (Warner, \r\n2010; Abel et al., 2019). Nevertheless, evidence linking conflict with \r\nclimate change and desertification is weak (Benjaminsen et al., 2012) \r\nand data are insufficient to draw robust conclusions."


id: 75f3e7ff521add1909b1d77e0d3d2050
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Drylands yield important opportunities for adapting to and mitigating \r\nclimate change. They offer abundant solar energy, which could support \r\nmitigation efforts, opportunities for cultural and nature-based tourism, \r\nrich plant biodiversity in some areas (e.g. Namibia), and extensive \r\nIndigenous knowledge and experience of adapting to dynamic \r\nclimates (Christie et al., 2014; Stringer et al., 2017); for example, across \r\nWest Asia and North Africa (Louhaichi and Tastad, 2010; Hussein, \r\n2011). Improved understanding of challenges and opportunities in \r\ndrylands can be achieved by transdisciplinary, multi-scale and inter\u0002sectoral approaches encompassing links between physical, biological, \r\nsocioeconomic and institutional systems (Reynolds et  al., 2007; \r\nStringer et al., 2017)."


id: 9707542ab3dfb602ffbf7f98de1f15bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Maps of dryland extent commonly employ a climate-based approach \r\nmeasured using the Aridity Index (AI), or consider the extent of \r\ndryland vegetation. The two approaches sometimes do not demarcate \r\nthe same geographical areas as being drylands, particularly when \r\nprojecting future changes (Stringer et  al., 2021). Dryland dynamics \r\ntherefore need to be viewed specifically in relation to the definitions \r\nand measurements being used. From 1982 to 2015, unsustainable \r\nland use and climate change combined caused desertification of 6% \r\nof the global dryland area, while 41% showed significant greening \r\n(i.e., increased vegetation productivity), and 53% of the area had no \r\nnotable change (Figure CCP3.1; Burrell et al., 2020). In contrast Yuan "


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"Interactions between climate change and desertification in drylands \r\ncreate challenges for both ecosystem and human resilience, affecting \r\necosystem services, biodiversity, food security, human health and well\u0002being (Reed and Stringer, 2016). Dryland livelihoods that heavily rely on "


id: c9f7a177e991c6423e82005005a75b6c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"et  al. (2019) conclude that during 1999-2015, trends of vegetation \r\nproduction reversed globally, and in drylands, showing extensive \r\ndeclines. Thus, while overall greening has occurred, this trend now \r\nappears to be declining. Analyses of vegetation, soil, and physical \r\ncharacteristics of over 50,000 sample points in drylands around the \r\nworld indicate that aridification causes ecological degradation at three \r\nsuccessive thresholds: vegetation decline at AI = 0.56, soil disruption \r\nat AI = 0.3 and loss of plant cover at AI = 0.2 (Berdugo et al., 2020). \r\nDrylands nevertheless show different dynamics depending on the \r\nindex used and the variables assessed."


id: c1aec3bca842ef3f0d7bb33bc881c9bb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 28059
content:
"PET because of increased temperatures will have little impact if \r\ntemperature and actual evapotranspiration are not rising during the \r\nperiod of vegetation growth (Stringer et al., 2021)."


id: 83fb353e41ef6e37d8f24ba249959998
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18303
content:
"Based on the AI, some drylands are projected to expand and others \r\nto contract due to climate change. However, there is no evidence of \r\na global trend in dryland expansion based on vegetation patterns, \r\nprecipitation and soil moisture, based on the satellite record from \r\nthe 1980s to the present (medium confidence). The AI will also be of \r\nlimited use under a changing CO2 environment due to higher water use \r\nefficiency by some plants (Mirzabaev et al., 2019), and it overvalues \r\nthe role of potential evapotranspiration (PET) relative to rainfall. \r\nIt also does not account for CO2 impacts on evapotranspiration, \r\nand seasonality in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Higher annual "


id: 3f5e00b9b925434c60b54c7bcd3caf91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7358
content:
"Significant warming has occurred across drylands globally (IPCC, \r\n2021). Surface warming (1920-2015) of 1.2deg\r\nC-1.3degC in global drylands \r\nhas exceeded the 0.8deg\r\nC-1.0degC warming over humid lands (Huang et al., \r\n2017). As measured by the AI, this has expanded the area of drylands by \r\n~4% from 1948-2004 (Ji et al., 2015; Spinoni et al., 2015; Huang et al., \r\n2016). However, as mentioned in Figure  CCP3.1, the AI has various \r\nlimitations in assessing drylands expansion. Increases in potential \r\nevapotranspiration have exceeded increases in precipitation in the last "


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"half of the period 1901-2017 (Pan et  al., 2021). Observations from \r\nthe Sahel demonstrated that temperature seasonality changes differ \r\nfrom rainfall seasonality changes (Guichard et al., 2015), and there has \r\nbeen an increase in surface water and groundwater recharge in the \r\nSahel since the 1980s, referred to as 'the Sahel paradox' (Favreau et al., \r\n2009; Gardelle et al., 2010; Descroix et al., 2013; Wendling et al., 2019). \r\nResearch from the USA suggests that historical soil moisture levels can \r\ncontribute to such variability (Heisler-White et al., 2009). Studies from \r\nthe Middle East show rising temperatures and declining rainfall trends \r\n(ESCWA, 2017), with most decreasing aridity trends in north Sudan \r\nand most increasing aridity trends in eastern Arabia over the period \r\n1948-2018 (Sahour et al., 2020)."


id: 63de293fe5f7d052324655aedb657cf3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Field measurements have also detected tree mortality and loss of \r\nmesic tree species at some Sahel sites during drought periods \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2012; Kusserow, 2017; Brandt et al., 2018; Ibrahim \r\net al., 2018; Trichon et al., 2018; Zwarts et al., 2018; Bernardino et al., \r\n2020; Zida et al., 2020) and a reduction of mesic species in favour \r\nof drought-tolerant species (high confidence) (Hanke et  al., 2016; \r\nKusserow, 2017; Ibrahim et al., 2018; Trichon et al., 2018; Dendoncker \r\net al., 2020; Zida et al., 2020b), with attribution to climate change \r\n(Gonzalez et  al., 2012). Furthermore, vegetation productivity per \r\nunit of rainfall showed a net decline of 4% in the period 2000-2015 "


id: f9a09b754185a4c264239cc517b31b0c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 36791
content:
"Dryland ecosystems have shown mixed trends of decreases and \r\nincreases in vegetation and biodiversity, depending on the time period, \r\ngeographic region and vegetation type assessed (see Table CCP3.1 for \r\nexamples of observed environmental changes and impacts in drylands "


id: 7b084a90fa63e24dde8bab1ee211df42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"wildfires in these desert ecosystems in which fire had been rare \r\n(Brooks and Matchett, 2006; Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; Hegeman \r\net al., 2014; Horn and St. Clair, 2017). In the Mojave Desert in the USA, \r\na loss of bird biodiversity has also been detected and attributed to \r\nincreased aridity caused by climate change (Iknayan and Beissinger, \r\n2018; Riddell et al., 2019)."


id: f11d183615942492ea4bd3dc8e67a1ff
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 35434
content:
"across drylands globally, with the greatest net declines in Africa \r\n(16%) and Asia (33%) (Abel et al., 2021), but with location-specific \r\nincreases in vegetation-rainfall sensitivity, for example, in southern \r\nand eastern Africa and parts of the Sahel. Furthermore, NDVI declines \r\nwere reported across the Sahel from 1999 to 2015 (Yuan et al., 2019; \r\nZida et al., 2020a). However, field site monitoring showed a strong \r\nregeneration of the decimated woody populations except on shallow \r\nsoil where the runoff system had evolved towards a web of gullies \r\n(Hiernaux et al., 2009a; Trichon et al., 2018; Wendling et al., 2019) ."


id: 482bb2a059857e936343e7d81f1afa10
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8727
content:
"Other site-specific impacts include tree mortality in southwestern \r\nMorocco (Le Polain de Waroux and Lambin, 2012), mortality of \r\nAustrocedrus and Nothofagus forests in the dry Patagonia forest\u0002steppe (Rodriguez-Caton et al., 2019) and a tree range contraction of \r\nAloidendron dichotmum in southern Africa (Foden et  al., 2007b). In \r\nMorocco, tree mortality was most highly correlated to an increase in \r\naridity, measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which \r\nshowed a statistically significant increase since 1900 due to climate \r\nchange (Dai et al., 2004; Esper et al., 2007; Dai, 2011)."


id: c7d29005bd230c147d53dd6e89a8a43c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29014
content:
"In deserts of the southwestern USA, a drought since 2000, mainly \r\ndue to climate change (Williams et al., 2020), together with land use \r\nchange, invasive plant species and wildfire (Syphard et al., 2017), has \r\nled to reductions in native desert plant species (Defalco et al., 2010; \r\nConver et al., 2017) and perennial vegetation cover (Munson et al., \r\n2016a; 2016b). An increase in invasive exotic grasses has increased "


id: cf9ad22d383b51613313779f105dcf8c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"2005; Fensholt et al., 2006; Dardel et al., 2014; Hiernaux et al., 2016; \r\nStith et  al., 2016; Benjaminsen and Hiernaux, 2019; Hiernaux and \r\nAssouma, 2020)."


id: bf6a40ac8caab08d2b95abb39d587d8e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27669
content:
"et  al., 2013). Current climate models cannot adequately model the \r\nimpact of climate change on SDS activity (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019). \r\nHowever, there is high confidence that land degradation, loss of \r\nvegetative cover and drying of water bodies in semiarid and arid areas \r\nwill contribute to sand and dust activity (Mirzabaev et al., 2019)."


id: a16c690ca33a4b6e4ca548f02912248a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22956
content:
"Trends of land degradation (Section 16.4.1.2) and desertification (as \r\ndemonstrated by loss of cover or reduced vegetation productivity) as \r\nan impact of changing climatic trends have been reported in Burkina \r\nFaso (Zida et  al., 2020), the northwestern regions of China during \r\n1975-1990 (Zhang et al., 2020) in Afghanistan (Savage et al., 2009), \r\nIran (Mahmoudi et al., 2011; Kamali et al., 2017), Argentina (Barbosa \r\net al., 2015) and India (Javed et al., 2012). Encroachment, re-greening \r\nand an increase of unpalatable plant species into rangeland areas \r\n(e.g., in East Africa and southern Africa's Kalahari) all contribute to \r\ndryland degradation through the loss of open ecosystems and their \r\nservices (Reed et al., 2015; Le et al., 2016; Chen et al., 2019b)."


id: a0fdcee643452c4a1ab24011194c17df
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22877
content:
"SDS remain a major concern for desert areas under conditions of \r\nclimate change and desertification (Middleton, 2017). Only about 20% \r\nof deserts are covered by sand, but desert SDS provide an important \r\nfeedback mechanism to climate (Pu and Ginoux, 2017), with literature \r\nshowing that some areas have very frequent dust days (Figure CCP3.2; \r\nGinoux et al., 2012). In some locations, such as the USA, desert dust \r\ncan be deposited downwind on snowpacks, hastening snowmelt and \r\naltering river hydrology (Painter et al., 2010). Deserts and other natural \r\ndryland surfaces produced 75-90% of atmospheric dust globally in the \r\nearly 21st century, with the remainder from agricultural and other land \r\ndominated by human land use (Ginoux et al., 2012; Stanelle et al., 2014)."


id: 51917742db43fd141bc58e501eb7533f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10286
content:
"Recent changes in dust emissions and their attributions vary \r\ngeographically. Warming in Iran over the period 1951-2013 has been \r\nassociated with an increased frequency of dust events (Alizadeh\u0002Choobari and Najafi, 2018) and a trend (2000-2014) towards \r\nincreased fine atmospheric mineral dust concentrations in the US \r\nsouthwest has been linked to increasing aridity (Hand et  al., 2017). \r\nConversely, increases in rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation linked to "


id: eb48e71b08141cd90ff3c0c0d8d43b75
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34515
content:
"Soil dust emissions are highly sensitive to changing climate conditions \r\nbut also to changing land use and management practices (high \r\nconfidence). Distinguishing between the effects of these drivers is \r\nnot straightforward, even in well-documented locations (Middleton, \r\n2019). There is limited evidence and low agreement about the impacts \r\nof climate change on sand and dust storms (SDS), with studies pointing \r\nto either substantial increases (+300%) or decreases (-60%) (Boucher "


id: c7034f4303f6c08f87b28f5331d3821e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28891
content:
"Figure CCP3.2 |  Frequency of high dust days (dust optical depth >0.2) during the dust season, based on 2003-2009 remote sensing, the most recent data \r\nanalysed, and divided into areas primarily under agriculture and areas dominated by natural land cover (Ginoux et al., 2012). Dust seasons: Africa (North), \r\nYear-round; Africa (South), September-February; America (North), March-May; America (South), December-February), Asia, March-May; Australia, September-February."


id: 8c47e7a98ee5f22190e19ac1b4aed739
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19578
content:
"disruption to the economic structures and cultural practices of affected \r\ncommunities (Elhadary, 2014; Middleton, 2017)."


id: 4b85e247a360c2686d8ec86a480aedb5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9302
content:
"Droughts are among the natural hazards with the highest adverse \r\nimpacts on human populations (Mishra and Singh, 2010; Arias et al., \r\n2021). Although droughts represented just 4% of hazard events, their \r\nimpacts amounted to 31% of affected people (29 million) (Louvain, \r\n2019). Drought exposure relates to a higher risk of undernutrition \r\n(Section  16.5.2.3.6), among vulnerable populations (Kumar, 2016), \r\nparticularly children (IFPRI, 2016) for whom the impacts can lead to \r\nlifelong consequences through stunted growth, impaired cognitive \r\nability and reduced future educational and work performance (UNICEF/\r\nWHO/WBG, 2019). The corresponding costs of children stunting in \r\nterms of lost economic growth can be of the order of 7% of per capita \r\nincome in developing countries (Galasso and Wagstaff, 2018)."


id: 12395f5ec673bc82fd52134ea6da7b6e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 370
content:
"Climate change and desertification, alongside other drivers of degra\u0002dation, reduce dryland ecosystem services, leading to losses of bio\u0002diversity, water, food and impacts on human health (Section CCP4.2.3) \r\nand well-being (high confidence) (Mirzabaev et al., 2019) resulting in "


id: dfc6f05a3d983fce9cf7d45502f18350
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32700
content:
"responses are scarce, and highly context specific. For example, in many \r\nlower income countries, rural women produce most of the household \r\nfood, and are responsible for food preparation and collecting fuelwood \r\nand water from increasingly distant sources (Mekonnen et al., 2017; \r\nDroy, 2020). Drought and water scarcity particularly affect women and \r\ngirls in drylands because they need to spend more time and energy \r\ncollecting water and fuelwood, have less time for education or income\u0002generating activities, and may be more exposed to violence (Sommer \r\net al., 2014) and less able to migrate as an adaptation option. Women \r\nare also commonly excluded from family and community decision \r\nmaking on actions to address desertification and climate change, yet \r\ntheir engagement in climate adaptation is critical. International policy \r\nefforts are currently seeking to better recognise and address this \r\nchallenge (Okpara et al., 2019)."


id: c13f7d76a34e6d631fbb892422df38b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27991
content:
"Dryland populations pursuing traditional land-based livelihood \r\noptions are generally mobile due to a highly fluctuating resource base \r\n(Box  CCP 3.1). Many rural dwellers in drylands also move to urban \r\nareas for seasonal work, which can have positive impacts in terms \r\nof remittances. While reasons for migration vary and can be positive \r\nor negative, oppression and human rights abuses, lack of livelihood \r\nopportunities and food insecurity tend to be among the main push \r\nfactors, while emerging opportunities at the rural-urban nexus present \r\nlucrative pull factors (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). In a \r\nsurvey in Libya in 2016, 80% of migrants interviewed said they had left \r\nhome because of economic hardship (Hochleithner and Exner, 2018), \r\nwhich in drylands under water scarcity linked to climate change, would \r\nbe exacerbated."


id: c0c17346668427897192d1f1bd15bb7e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Causes of migration and violent conflict need to be seen in a wider \r\nhistorical, agrarian, political, economic and environmental context, \r\nin a multi-scalar perspective integrating levels of analysis from the \r\nlocal to the global (Glick Schiller, 2015). Quantitative studies tend to \r\nconclude that climate change has so far not significantly impacted \r\nmigration including in drylands (Owain and Maslin, 2018), although \r\nwith some disagreement (Lima et al., 2016; Missirian and Schlenker, \r\n2017). In a study of the climate change-migration-conflict interface, \r\nAbel et al. (2019) found limited empirical evidence supporting a link \r\nbetween climatic shocks, conflict and asylum-seeking for the period \r\n2006-2015 from 157 countries. The authors found evidence of such a \r\nlink for the period 2010-2012 relating to some countries affected by \r\nthe Arab Spring and concluded that the impact of climate on conflict \r\nand migration is limited to specific time periods and contexts."


id: db92cd7348f8f032c0e0128376a85433
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32064
content:
"Woody plant encroachment and greening may be masking underlying \r\nland degradation processes and losses of ecosystem services, \r\nlivelihood and adaptation options in pastoral livelihood systems (Reed \r\net al., 2015; Chen et al., 2019a). Woody encroachment alters ecosystem \r\nservices, particularly in rangelands, resulting in reduction of grass \r\ncover, hindering livestock production (Anadon et al. 2014), reducing \r\nwater availability (Honda and Durigan 2016, Stringer et al., 2021) but \r\nincreasing availability of wood (Mograbi et al., 2019)."


id: 96ed00b86341bfee5c5a739e54bd3750
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21262
content:
"The same lack of general causality is largely concluded on the specific \r\nlink between climate change and conflict (Buhaug et al., 2014; Buhaug \r\net al., 2015; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Koubi, 2019), but a minority of \r\nquantitative studies argue for a stronger causal association (Hsiang \r\net al., 2013). Mach et al. (2019) found considerable agreement among \r\nexperts that climate variability and change have influenced the risk \r\nof organised armed conflict within countries, but they also agreed \r\nthat other factors, such as state capacity and level of socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment, played a much larger role. These factors also play a role \r\nin determining adaptation possibilities and in shaping the enabling \r\nenvironment (Section 8.5.2)."


id: 5046c21a885c93094110cbd35675abfa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10076
content:
"Impacts of desertification, climate change and environmental \r\ndegradation, as well as vulnerability and capacity to adapt, are \r\ngendered. Differences are determined by socially structured gender\u0002specific roles and responsibilities, ownership of, access to and \r\ncontrol over natural resources and technology, decision making, and \r\ncapacity to cope and adapt to long-term changes (Mirzabaev et al., \r\n2019; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18). Assessments of the \r\ngender dimension of desertification and climate change impacts and "


id: 604dddf35fb87a99aa81f905b1d45752
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12726
content:
"Pastoralism is a livestock-keeping system based on the herding of animals. Migrations often take place over long distances to track \r\nvariable and unpredictable plant growth that tends to be patchy in space and variable in time (Homewood, 2018). Pastoralism has a \r\nconsiderably lower carbon budget than other livestock-keeping systems. Research on pastoralism in the Sahel concluded that this system \r\nmay be carbon neutral (Assouma et al., 2019), despite contributing directly to greenhouse gas emissions via methane enteric emissions \r\nand indirectly through faeces-driven CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions during mineralisation (Assouma et al., 2017). Efforts to sedentarise and \r\nsettle pastoralists in villages can lead to land degradation and higher overall emissions from the sector."


id: 4a9acaceb999ea09d646f1ce76f3699d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9143
content:
"Pastoralists migrate with their animals in some of the most remote and marginal environments on the planet. Globally, mobile pastoralists \r\nnumber about 200 million households and use about 25% of the Earth's landmass (Dong, 2016). Many pastoralists operate in non\u0002equilibrial environments that are unstable, fluctuating and generally uncertain, and are driven more by climatic variation than livestock \r\nnumbers and grazing pressure (Behnke et al., 1993). Examples of such systems are grazing areas in the dry tropics (Sandford, 1983; Turner, \r\n1993; Sullivan and Rohde, 2002; Benjaminsen et al., 2006; Hiernaux et al., 2016) and rangelands in the Arctic (Behnke, 2000; Tyler et al., \r\n2008; Benjaminsen et al., 2015; Marin et al., 2020)."


id: 56a47702a0a570bc7dacf6f3f6f56af6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11111
content:
"Over many generations, pastoralists have accumulated practical experience and knowledge to cope with uncertainty and value variability \r\n(Kratli and Schareika, 2010), mainly through a mobile and flexible approach. While pastoralists are also at risk of climate change impacts, \r\nthey may be better able to adapt to a changing climate than other land users (Davies and Nori, 2008; Kratli and Schareika, 2010; Jones \r\nand Gutzler, 2016)."


id: e9c649297fa5fc62ad88c1686563cf73
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34277
content:
"While pastoralists possess substantial adaptive capacity as a result of their Indigenous knowledge, this has been under pressure during \r\nthe last few decades through continued loss of livestock corridors (essential to mobility) and pastures in general due to competing land \r\nuses, such as farming, mining, crop expansion and the establishment or extension of protected areas (Thebaud and Batterbury, 2001; \r\nBrockington, 2002; Benjaminsen and Ba, 2009; Upton, 2014; Johnsen, 2016; Tappan, 2016; Homewood, 2018; Weldemichel and Lein, \r\n2019; Bergius et al., 2020). Many of these competing land uses erect fences and exclude other uses, while property rights often privilege \r\nsedentary farming."


id: b43260f615c1203f7217c68a47880a25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25865
content:
"Modern states have typically tried to settle pastoralists and confine their movements within clearly defined boundaries, claiming that \r\npastoral land use is neither ecologically sustainable nor economically productive. Based on such negative and often flawed views, stall\u0002feeding and ranching are often presented by policymakers as successful models of livestock keeping in contrast to the pastoral way of \r\nlife (Steinfeld et al., 2006; Chatty, 2007)."


id: d7c5bdf4bab44d14e313fe724f9b1e1a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31474
content:
"Current pressures and processes of pastoral change are spatially variable and complex, and tend to result in further economic and \r\npolitical marginalisation of pastoralists, with adverse effects on livelihoods and landscapes. With climate change, which is projected to \r\nlead to higher temperatures and more frequent fluctuations in precipitation, maintaining flexibility and resilience in pastoral land use \r\nis essential. However, current processes of marginalisation, in addition to increased insecurity in some drylands (e.g., the Sahel), make \r\npastoralists more vulnerable, and constrain them from fully employing their adaptive capacities (Davies and Nori, 2008). The skills and \r\ncapacities held by pastoralists may, however, offer lessons for society at large in its struggle to adapt to climate change and deal with \r\nincreased uncertainty (Davies and Nori, 2008; Scoones, 2009; Nori and Scoones, 2019)."


id: a1bf5a8b3711f843e9317e097b285403
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23009
content:
"Smith, 2010; Cavanagh and Benjaminsen, 2015; Hall et al., 2015) as \r\nalready seen in the Sahel in terms of the emergence of jihadist armed \r\ngroups (Benjaminsen and Ba, 2019). Major drivers of the current \r\ncrisis in Mali include decades of bureaucratic mismanagement and \r\nwidespread corruption, the spill-over of jihadist groups from Algeria \r\nafter the civil war there in the 1990s and the current civil war in Libya. \r\nClimate change has played a marginal role as a driver of conflicts in the \r\nSahel (Benjaminsen et al., 2012; Benjaminsen and Hiernaux, 2019) but \r\nhas potential to exacerbate the situation in the future with regards to \r\nmigration and conflict (Owain and Maslin, 2018)."


id: 6e26d79e1394464c38d1398d66ad9260
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14946
content:
"Qualitative case studies tend to frame conflict and migration within a \r\nlarger political, economic and historical context. A number of studies \r\nfrom African drylands find that land dispossession is a key driver of both \r\nmigration and conflict resulting from large-scale resource extraction or \r\nland encroachment, often associated with processes of elite capture \r\nand marginalisation (Benjaminsen and Ba, 2009; Benjaminsen et  al., \r\n2009; Cross, 2013; Glick Schiller, 2015; Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner \r\nKerr, 2017; Obeng-Odoom, 2017; Bergius et al., 2020). By undermining \r\nlivelihoods, exacerbating poverty and setting rural population groups \r\nadrift, land dispossession in the Sahel may lead to increased migration \r\nto urban areas, to rural sites of non-farm employment (e.g., mines) \r\n(Chevrillon-Guibert et al., 2019) or out of the country. In addition, it \r\nmay lead to other types of reactions including violent resistance (Oliver\u0002"


id: 784db53200d50182e4a4a9cd5057c18e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16491
content:
"in precipitation, such as southern North America, northeastern South \r\nAmerica (Section 12.3.1.1) and southern Europe (Section 13.1.3; Swann \r\net al., 2016)."


id: b2670364e3570342eb9bde46f3a006ea
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25585
content:
"Drylands are highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and \r\nevapotranspiration. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is projected to \r\nincrease in all regions globally, under all RCPs, as a result of increasing \r\ntemperatures and surface water vapour deficit (Mirzabaev et al., 2019). \r\nSimulations based on coupled land surface, energy, and water and \r\nvegetation models in the Central Sahel showed a strong response of \r\nthe water budget. Under +2degC and +4degC warming scenarios, decreased \r\nevapotranspiration, runoff and drainage were found for all scenarios, \r\nexcept those with the highest precipitation (Leauthaud et al., 2015)."


id: c77056e896075e1a416bc26aa5cac601
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Globally, soil moisture declined over the 20th century (Gu et al., 2019), a \r\ntrend that is projected to continue under all emissions scenarios (WGI). \r\nProjected drier soils can further amplify aridity through feedbacks with \r\nland surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation (Berg \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 46b0600efb9f9806a32ba8f6ff85ca91
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 8506
content:
"The relative contribution of albedo and evapotranspiration to \r\nregional trends in surface temperature (Charney, 1975) remains \r\nunresolved, and may be determined by different mechanisms in \r\ndifferent systems, depending on site-specific conditions such as snow \r\ncoverage, vegetation and soil moisture (Yu et al., 2017). For example, \r\nthe vegetation-albedo feedback mechanism may dominate in the \r\nArctic (Blok et al., 2011; te Beest et al., 2016), while the vegetation-\r\nevaporation feedback may drive change in other regions. Actions that \r\nincrease forest cover across Africa could thus, theoretically, moderate \r\nprojected future temperature increases (Wu et al., 2016; Diba et al., \r\n2018), but with potentially negative effects on biodiversity (Chapter \r\n2). Soil drying exacerbates atmospheric aridity, which causes more \r\nsoil drying in a self-reinforcing land-atmosphere feedback that could \r\nintensify under RCP8.5 (Zhou et al., 2019)."


id: 9082b74c14500d7db4d17f6527bbe49
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"damages of increased dust-related health impacts and mortality under \r\nRCP8.5 could total USD 47 billion/year additional to the 1986-2005 \r\nvalue of USD  13  billion/year in southwest USA (Allahbakhshi et  al., \r\n2019)."


id: 52729ea8020b6261eebc9154236bf5f1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10425
content:
"Across many drylands, human-induced causes of desertification, \r\nSDS, climate change and unsustainable land use are projected to \r\nbecome more pronounced over the next several decades with global \r\nconsequences. Future climate changes with increasing frequency, \r\nintensity and scales of droughts and heatwaves, are projected to further \r\nexacerbate the vulnerability and risk to humans from desertification \r\n(Hurlbert et al., 2019)."


id: a08e030f510bf452296648895b728088
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 22796
content:
"SDS exert a wide range of impacts on people, within deserts and \r\nsemi-deserts but also outside dryland environments because of long\u0002range dust transport (Middleton, 2017). Research on the economic \r\nimpacts of SDS is lacking, while studies that have been conducted \r\nlack consistency in data collection methods and analysis (Middleton, \r\n2019). Although projections are rarely modelled, estimated economic "


id: ef8e0ff74e1d6f8a74ef8410505e276d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35184
content:
"or locally among communities, pushing social justice concerns to the \r\nfore (Section 8.4). Measures promoting particular adaptations need to \r\ntake into account such consequences, as well as the potential for some \r\nadaptations to become maladaptive at scale."


id: 93e824898e23701f22f8d5cb69e5f0ae
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20777
content:
"Table CCP3.2 |  Synthesis of adaptation measures and responses to risks in deserts and semiarid areas. Appropriateness of measures is context dependent and some adaptations \r\nwill be incremental or even maladaptive in some dryland contexts, while being transformational in other locations."


id: bb0a234f3fab560e4e9a5156d0e8ffe6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"A range of risk mitigation and adaptation measures can be taken, \r\nto address drought, desertification and other climate change-related \r\nchallenges in deserts and semiarid areas, some of which can be both \r\nproactive and reactive. These include inter alia:"


id: 62e9784c1b903e7bdc6586869f8a4dc5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13137
content:
"There is high agreement and robust evidence that shifting emphasis \r\nto proactive risk mitigation, including solutions for drought, flooding, \r\nerosion and dust management, instead of exclusive focus on disaster \r\nmanagement, reduces vulnerability and improves adaptive capacity \r\n(Section 16.4.3.2; 16.5.2.3.4; Sivakumar, 2005; Grobicki et al., 2015; \r\nWieriks and Vlaanderen, 2015; Aguilar-Barajas et al., 2016; Runhaar "


id: 25a1008546c3874b508d2c4641e153cf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3348
content:
"and harvesting periods (Frischen et  al., 2020). Similar to other \r\nadaptations, the net economic benefits of ex ante resilient plant \r\ndevelopment far outweigh the research investment (Basu et  al., \r\n2017; Mottaleb et al., 2017; Dar et al., 2020)."


id: 3c6d4b922b1cbef55fce83bed0c5f27d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 6872
content:
"Q | gy yy y \r\nHuman-caused climate change has so far had mixed effects across the drylands, leading to fewer trees and less biodiversity in some areas and \r\nincreased grass and tree cover in others. In those dryland areas with increasing aridity, millions of people face difficulties in maintaining their \r\nlivelihoods, particularly where there is water scarcity."


id: 31b623c3bd1e484e620930117ac673b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5231
content:
"Climate change is projected to lead to higher temperatures across global drylands. Many drylands also risk more irregular rainfall leading to \r\nincreased irregularity in crop yields and increased water insecurity where less rainfall is projected, which may have profound implications for \r\nboth dryland ecosystems and their human inhabitants."


id: b211ae7a9fe465cce8397379914296d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25517
content:
"There is, however, considerable uncertainty about the changes that may occur in drylands in the future and how \r\npeople and ecosystems will be affected. In some drylands, higher temperatures and declining rainfall have increased \r\naridity. However, this is not a global trend as many drylands are experiencing increases in vegetation cover and \r\nrainfall. Both the amount of rainfall and its seasonality have changed in many dryland areas, associated with \r\nnatural variability and warming."


id: ca46c6049b60ccd2b167f3260fefca3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29388
content:
"FAQ CCP3.3 | What can be done to support sustainable development in desert and semiarid areas, given projected "


id: ed1398939486842a4234849fff9c4e09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34778
content:
"Water is a major limiting factor in drylands. Many efforts to support sustainable development aim to improve water availability, access and \r\nquality, ranging from large engineering solutions that move or desalinise water, to herders' migrations with their animals to locations that \r\nhave water, to land management and water harvesting practices that conserve water and support land cover. These solutions draw on IKLK \r\nand innovative science, and can help to address multiple Sustainable Development Goals."


id: a1325486193430485e16275a760598f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22922
content:
"Ali, E., W. Cramer, J. Carnicer, E. Georgopoulou, N.J.M. Hilmi, G. Le Cozannet, and P. Lionello, 2022: Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 4: Mediterranean Region. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of \r\nWorking Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, \r\nD.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, \r\nA. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2233-2272, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.021."


id: 5ee76cc04e25ef2685f2329f04badca7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"During the 21st century, climate change is projected to \r\nintensify throughout the region. Air and sea temperature and \r\ntheir extremes (notably heat waves) are likely2\r\n to continue to \r\nincrease more than the global average (high confidence). The \r\nprojected annual mean warming on land at the end of the century is \r\nin the range of 0.9-5.6degC compared to the last two decades of the \r\n20th century, depending on the emission scenario (high confidence).\r\nPrecipitation will likely decrease in most areas by 4-22%, depending \r\non the emission scenario (medium confidence). Rainfall extremes will \r\nlikely increase in the northern part of the region (high confidence). \r\nDroughts will become more prevalent in many areas (high confidence). \r\n{CCP4.1.3}"


id: d06b1950a37971e142ec4f0ce0c49536
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30316
content:
"The Mediterranean region hosts exceptional biological diversity \r\nand socio-cultural richness originating from three continents.\r\nThe nature of the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea and the complex \r\ntopography imply unique physiographic and ecological features. The \r\nregion has undergone continuous change in human activities over \r\nseveral millennia, and now hosts more than 500 million people with a \r\nhigh concentration of urban settlements and industrial infrastructure \r\nclose to sea level. The region is the world's leading tourist destination \r\nand one of its busiest shipping routes. Climate change strongly interacts \r\nwith other environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin, \r\nresulting from urbanisation, land use change, overfishing, pollution, \r\nbiodiversity loss and degradation of land and marine ecosystems. \r\n{CCP4.1.1}"


id: 8ef4e4ce8adb856c91a09cef2fd5b0d1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20024
content:
"Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) \r\nreports have never assessed the Mediterranean region as \r\nan entity - but they have nevertheless shown that virtually \r\nall parts of it are vulnerable and face significant risks due to \r\nclimate change. Identified regional key risks include increased \r\nwater scarcity (notably in the south and east) and droughts (in the \r\nnorth), coastal risks due to flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusions, \r\nwildfire, terrestrial and marine ecosystem losses, as well as risks to \r\nfood production and security, human health, well-being and cultural \r\nheritage. {CCP4.1.2}"


id: c691e37f8d455388c87e1a4657046a20
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28807
content:
"Surface temperature in the Mediterranean region is now 1.5degC \r\nabove the pre-industrial level, with a corresponding increase \r\nin high-temperature extreme events (high confidence1\r\n). Trends \r\nin precipitation are variable across the basin (low confidence). \r\nDroughts have become more frequent and intense, especially \r\nin the north Mediterranean (high confidence). The sea surface \r\nhas warmed by 0.29degC-0.44degC per decade since the early 1980s \r\nwith stronger trends in the eastern basin. Sea level has risen \r\nby 1.4+-0.2 mm yr-1 during the 20th century (2.8+-0.1 mm yr-1\r\nover 1993-2018) (high confidence). Ocean acidity is increasing \r\n(medium confidence). {CCP4.1.3}"


id: c7c76eefdb1d9f9130c6483166c7f3c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29008
content:
"A growing number of observed impacts across the entire \r\nbasin are now being attributed to climate change, along \r\nwith major roles of other forcings of environmental change \r\n(high confidence). These impacts include multiple consequences \r\nof longer and/or more intensive heat waves, droughts, floods, \r\nocean acidification and sea level rise, such as cascading impacts on \r\nmarine and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as on land and sea use \r\n(agriculture, forestry, fisheries, tourism, recreation, etc.) and human \r\nhealth. {CCP4.1.4}"


id: a45ec13ea7fbcbd61208c4cba49e8a92
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23424
content:
"The adaptive capacity of ecosystems and human systems is \r\nexpected to encounter hard limits due to the interacting, \r\ncumulative and cascading effects of droughts, heat waves, sea \r\nlevel rise, ocean warming and acidification (high confidence).\r\nCoastal protection can reduce risks from sea level rise in some regions, \r\nbut the costs of such interventions and their consequences for coastal \r\necosystems are high (medium confidence). {CCP4.4.1} There is low \r\nconfidence in the feasibility of adaptation options to sea level rise \r\nbeyond 2100 or for large Antarctic ice melting. {CCP4.4.5}"


id: 3aecd53ba306861b2a33bc66fefbb264
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 6635
content:
"Progress towards achievement of the United Nations Sustainable \r\nDevelopment Goals differs strongly between Mediterranean \r\nsub-regions, with northwestern countries having stronger \r\nresilience than southern and eastern countries (high confidence).\r\nTo equitably enhance regional adaptive capacity and sustainable \r\ndevelopment, while safeguarding the rights of the most vulnerable \r\npeople, regional cooperation can be strengthened with a focus on the \r\nlink between adaptation, costs and financial limitation, and climate \r\njustice (high confidence). Cooperative policies across various sectors, \r\ninvolving all user groups and considering all regional and sectorial \r\ndifferences may enhance sustainable resource use in the region (high \r\nconfidence). {CCP4.4.6}"


id: 258b93f55d274bad425ba51af824930f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3334
content:
"Sharing and co-production of knowledge can support climate \r\nadaptation practices and enhance sustainability in the \r\nMediterranean region (medium to high confidence). Currently \r\nincomplete knowledge of climate impacts and risks in the southern \r\nand eastern part of the basin hinders the implementation of adaptation \r\nmeasures, creating a need for implementable plans with enhanced and \r\ncooperative research and monitoring capacities between the north, \r\nsouth and southeast countries (high agreement). {CCP4.4}"


id: 256e3be5e9aba5086028fafebbac4b3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"2014), although earlier estimates of burnt area have been reduced in \r\nthe most recent assessments to approx. 40-100%, considering that \r\nprevention and mitigation actions have successfully reduced this risk so \r\nfar (Balzan et al., 2020). Wetlands and mountain summits are hotspots \r\nfor biodiversity loss and extinctions (medium confidence) (Jimenez \r\nCisneros et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; IPBES, 2018a; IPBES, 2018b; \r\nBalzan et  al., 2020). Along with unsustainable land use practices, \r\nclimate change is projected to increase soil erosion in semiarid areas \r\n(Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014)."


id: ab18051f7f48a00612414a3067be1ea0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24438
content:
"The Mediterranean Basin, known for its exceptional environmental and \r\nsocio-cultural richness, comprises the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea \r\nand the countries and regions bordering it,3\r\n which belong to Europe, \r\nAsia and Africa (Figure CCP4.1). The region has a unique historical and \r\nenvironmental identity (Abulafia, 2011), despite undeniable variations \r\nin the environment, socioeconomic conditions and cultural traditions. \r\nThe countries in the Mediterranean Basin hosted approximately \r\n542 million people in 2020, a number which is expected to increase \r\nto 657 million by 2050 and 694 million by 2100. In 1950, only 23.7% \r\nof the Mediterranean population lived in countries of the south, this \r\nnumber increased to 41.2% in 2000, 46.3% in 2020, and is projected \r\nto reach 55.5% in 2050 and 64.6% in 2100 (UN DESA, 2019)."


id: 40ea415dc35a254c3d1484c6f329ba59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7601
content:
"The Mediterranean Basin is located in a transition zone between mid\u0002latitude and subtropical atmospheric circulation regimes, with large \r\ntopographic gradients. The analysis of observed climate changes and \r\ntheir impacts is strongly affected by the imbalance of observations \r\nbetween northern and southern countries, where available time series \r\nhave often not allowed past climate evolution to be reconstructed over \r\na sufficiently long-time scale (Cramer et al., 2018)."


id: f99a7514b9895ab468a8593cb0f03242
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36789
content:
"Since the 1980s, Mediterranean atmospheric warming has exceeded \r\nglobal average rates (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, \r\nSeneviratne et  al., 2021; Lionello and Scarascia, 2018; Cherif et  al., \r\n2020). Future annual and summer warming rates are projected to be \r\n20% and 50% larger than the global annual average, respectively. \r\nSummer warming is projected to be particularly strong in the north \r\n(Figure CCP4.2, WGI AR6; Chapter 11, Seneviratne et al., 2021; Mariotti \r\net al., 2015; Lionello and Scarascia, 2018). Temperature extremes and \r\nheat waves have increased in intensity, number, and length during \r\nrecent decades, particularly in summer, and are projected to continue \r\nincreasing (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, Seneviratne et al., \r\n2021; Zittis et  al., 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; Cherif et  al., \r\n2020)."


id: 50cfd28e80bc8deb98f2e196d1c1ff78
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10159
content:
"With the changing climate, marine ecosystems have already undergone \r\nchanges in structure, including the spread of tropical species from the \r\nAtlantic Ocean and the Red Sea (high confidence) and mass mortality \r\nin at least 25 invertebrate species, threatening, along with ocean \r\nacidification, marine ecosystems, including seagrass meadows (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; Portner et al., 2014; Wong \r\net al., 2014). Endemic marine species are at higher risk of extinction \r\ndue to limited possibilities for migrating northward (Kovats et al., 2014; \r\nPoloczanska et al., 2014; Balzan et al., 2020). Southern and eastern \r\nMediterranean coastal systems with narrow dune belts and often \r\nrapid urbanisation are vulnerable to both warming and sea level rise \r\n(Seneviratne et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2014; Balzan et al., 2020)."


id: b279c685c0f1bc4c1727617ec0f45ac3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 25596
content:
"Sea surface temperatures have increased in recent decades (high \r\nconfidence), with regional variation between +0.29degC and +0.44degC \r\nper decade (Darmaraki et  al., 2019a), and stronger trends in the \r\neastern basin (Iona et  al., 2018; Pastor et  al., 2019), involving the \r\nwhole upper mixed layer (Rivetti et al., 2017). Towards the end of the "


id: 78e1c746010d7f5d92c9121a89815db2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16574
content:
"Most Mediterranean land ecosystems are impacted negatively by drier \r\nconditions, causing the ranges of many endemic species to shrink, and \r\nthe health and growth rates of trees to decline (Kovats et al., 2014; \r\nNiang et  al., 2014; Nurse et  al., 2014; Settele et  al., 2014). Climate \r\nchange is expected to increase wildfire risk in the region (Kovats et al., "


id: d64be052e155d7bb337b2f4f095b207c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"seasons in the central and southern basin, and mostly in summer in \r\nthe north (Mariotti et  al., 2015; Hertig and Tramblay, 2017; Lionello \r\nand Scarascia, 2018). Precipitation extremes have increased in some \r\nnorthern areas (medium confidence), and are projected to increase \r\nin the north (high confidence for global warming levels above 2degC), \r\npotentially accompanied by an increase in of flash floods (Llasat et al., \r\n2016), with no change in the south (low confidence) (WGI AR6 ATLAS, \r\nGutierrez et  al. 2021; Figures CCP4.2; CCP4.3; Tramblay and Somot, \r\n2018; Lionello and Scarascia, 2020). These trends enhance the gradient \r\nbetween northern (already characterised by more intense events) and \r\nsouthern areas (where extreme precipitation events are comparatively \r\nmilder) (Giorgi et  al., 2014; Jacob et  al., 2014; Vautard et  al., 2014; \r\nLionello and Scarascia, 2020)."


id: 410fc63f38699acb52c4c7bb53cbf786
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 7628
content:
"21st century, ocean warming in the range 0.8degC-3.8degC is projected \r\nnear the surface (high confidence), 0.8degC-3.0degC at intermediate \r\ndepth and 0.15degC-0.18degC in deeper waters (Darmaraki et al., 2019b; \r\nSoto-Navarro et al., 2020). The duration and intensity of marine heat \r\nwaves have increased (high confidence) (Darmaraki et al., 2019a) and \r\nboth parameters are projected to continue increasing in the future \r\n(Galli et  al., 2017). Under Representative Concentration Pathway \r\n(RCP) 8.5, at least one long-lasting marine heat wave is projected for \r\nevery year by 2100, up to 3 months longer and about four times more \r\nintense than present-day events (WGI AR6 Chapter 9, Fox-Kemper \r\net al., 2021; Darmaraki et al., 2019b). Salinity is projected to increase, \r\nwith anomalies from +0.48 to +0.89 psu by the end of the century \r\n(medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 9, Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; \r\nAdloff et al., 2015)."


id: 5677344d398f15df72e8d014c9be536b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 11079
content:
"Widespread increase of evaporative demand and some decrease of \r\nprecipitation explain the drying of the Mediterranean region during \r\nrecent decades (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, Seneviratne \r\net  al., 2021; Figure  CCP4.3) (Spinoni et  al., 2015; Gudmundsson and \r\nSeneviratne, 2016; Spinoni et al., 2017; Stagge et al., 2017; Caloiero et al., \r\n2018). Droughts are projected to become more severe, more frequent \r\nand longer under moderate emission scenarios, and strongly enhanced \r\nunder severe emission scenarios (high confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, "


id: ceff595de8aaf1e87d0409a0286a2eac
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30100
content:
"Observed trends in annual precipitation are significant only in some \r\nareas and some periods, and they are stationary over the long term \r\nthroughout the region (medium confidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, \r\nSeneviratne et al., 2021; Figure CCP4.3; Harris et al., 2014; Lionello and \r\nScarascia, 2018; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2020). Precipitation is projected \r\nto decrease (high confidence for global warming levels above 2degC) \r\n(Figure CCP4.2) by approximately 4% per 1degC global warming, for all "


id: 93657a72e6a473906a9646505c57bb0f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 20705
content:
"Figure CCP4.2 |  Changes in climate impact drivers with respect to the 1995-2014 period for 1.5degC (left column) and 3degC (right column) global warming: \r\nmean summer (June to August) temperature (degC, a, b), number of days with maximum temperature above 40degC (days, c, d), total precipitation during the cold (October to March) \r\nseason (%, e, f) and 1-day maximum precipitation (mm, g, h). Values based on CMIP6 global projections and SSP5-8.5. Sea level rise concerns the long term (2081-2100) and \r\nSSP1-2.6 for (i) and SSP3-7.0 for (j) (source: Annex I: Atlas)."


id: 9232b156a7b5fdc01cab8e7398eefb3a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20523
content:
"Seneviratne et al. 2021; Hertig and Tramblay, 2017; Lehner et al., 2017; \r\nRuosteenoja et al., 2018; Spinoni et al., 2018b; Grillakis, 2019; Lionello \r\nand Scarascia, 2020).\r\nmedicane intensity will likely increase (Cavicchia et al., 2014; Nissen \r\net al., 2014; Romera et al., 2017)."


id: 7c997a830606df74a02af76b7bb4e3cb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17199
content:
"No trends in mid-latitude cyclones crossing the Mediterranean \r\nBasin have been detected for recent decades (Lionello et  al., 2016). \r\nFor Mediterranean hurricanes ('medicanes'), no observed trends are \r\nknown because of insufficient monitoring. In the future, mid-latitude \r\ncyclones and medicanes are projected to decrease in frequency, but \r\nMediterranean waters have acidified since the pre-industrial period, \r\nmore rapidly than the global ocean, due to faster ventilation times \r\n(high confidence) (Palmieri et al., 2015). Acidification is projected to \r\ncontinue (virtually certain) (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, Seneviratne et al., \r\n2021), with a pH decrease of up to -0.46 in a high emission scenario \r\n(Goyet et al., 2016)."


id: 558d804f337f3145f00f8a29a8fca7e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10939
content:
"Synthesis of observed and projected (1.5degC and 4.0degC global warming levels) changes in climate drivers \r\naffecting the Mediterranean region"


id: c27b7211152c0afd567334022669e2bc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28187
content:
"The magnitude and sign of trends depend substantially on time period and study \r\nregion. Although precipitation is highly variable, it is stationary on the long term for \r\nthe whole region.\r\na"


id: 6d01f60786956f75bcb7bafe35fab0eb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14776
content:
"Figure CCP4.3 |  Observed and projected (at global warming levels of 1.5degC and 3degC) direction of change of climate drivers and confidence levels for \r\nMediterranean land sub-regions."


id: 66e96da8e02e2f7668dc2ecd77f42a4d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13783
content:
"Mediterranean mean sea level has risen by 1.4+-0.2 mm  yr-1 during \r\nthe 20th century (Woppelmann and Marcos, 2012) and accelerated \r\nto 2.4+-0.5 mm  yr-1 for 1993 to 2012 (Bonaduce et  al., 2016) and \r\n3.4 mm yr-1 for 1990 to 2009 in the northwest (medium confidence) \r\n(Calvo et al., 2011). The accelerating trend is robust, although different \r\nmethods and time horizons yield slightly different rates of change \r\n(Meyssignac et al., 2011; Cazenave et al., 2018; von Schuckmann et al., \r\n2020). For 2150, sea level is likely to reach 0.52 m [0.32-0.81] for SSP1-\r\n1.9, to 1.22 [0.91-1.78] for SSP5-8.5 relative to 1996-2014 (medium \r\nconfidence) (WGI AR6 Chapter 9, Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Figure FAQ \r\nCCP4.2; SMCCP4.4), with uncertain variation between sub-basins \r\n(Slangen et al., 2017). Melting processes in Greenland and Antarctica \r\ncould result in even higher levels (low confidence, WGI AR6 Chapter 9, \r\nFox-Kemper et al., 2021; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3)."


id: 21ea79f3a64232307203ba98be79d616
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 2780
content:
"The Mediterranean Basin includes within small distances a large variety \r\nof climatic conditions that are likely to shift northwards with global \r\nwarming. Consequently, ecoregions will be exposed to potentially \r\nunsuitable conditions: more arid climate for the Mediterranean forests \r\nof North Africa, more subtropical climate and temperate climate for \r\nthe mountain forests of the Balkans and of the Alps, respectively, and \r\nMediterranean climate for the temperate forests of North Anatolia \r\n(Figure CCP4.4; Lelieveld et al., 2012; Simpson et al., 2014)."


id: a2ffb1ef008e9d2eecaf488592e55117
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23208
content:
"Flooding, erosion and salinisation are significant observed impacts \r\nin coastal regions, especially where subsidence is significant, such \r\nas in the region of Thessaloniki in Greece or the eastern Nile Delta \r\nin Egypt (Raucoules et  al., 2008; Frihy et  al., 2010), with only low \r\nconfidence in attribution to climate change so far (Section SMCCP4.1). \r\nCoastal urbanisation and engineering protection are expanding in the \r\nMediterranean, resulting in substantial impacts on coastal biodiversity \r\n(Masria et al., 2015; Carranza et al., 2020)."


id: 87a8958c3239225f773b3e068a79e5e4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18873
content:
"The attribution of impacts displays little variability across sub-regions, \r\nbut confidence in attribution to climate change is higher in the north, \r\ndue to the larger number of observations and studies in Europe. While \r\nland use and fisheries are still major non-climatic drivers of changing \r\nhazards and biodiversity losses (Aguilera et al., 2015; Turco et al., 2016; \r\nIPBES, 2018a; 2018b; Tramblay et  al., 2019; Vicente-Serrano et  al., \r\n2019), impacts of climate change are now being observed in all parts \r\nof the Mediterranean region (high confidence)."


id: a6df13d2034a5484a26331ac2e79b37c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23771
content:
"New evidence published since Working Group II Assessment Report 5 \r\n(WGII AR5) confirms that climate change is increasingly affecting many \r\nsystems and sectors in the Mediterranean region (high confidence) \r\n(Figure CCP4.5; Chapters 9, 13 and 16). There is high confidence that \r\nclimate change has worsened heat waves and droughts (CCP4.1.3; \r\nLionello et  al., 2014; Caloiero et  al., 2018; Mathbout et  al., 2018; \r\nSpinoni et al., 2019), and medium to high confidence that heat waves "


id: d78f77fa052de4e7a4d6c3366cb145de
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31436
content:
"Figure CCP4.4 |  Climate and natural land ecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin, based on Koppen-Geiger climate types, for the baseline climate (a, \r\n1985-2014) and the future climate (b, 2076-2100, A1FI scenario (corresponding to global warming of approximately 4degC), based on (Rubel and Kottek, \r\n2010), with the three terrestrial biodiversity hot spots that are present in the region (see WG2 Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots)."


id: 25b45294194f0f8ed25c2491ba1d5eb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3358
content:
"to -6%), MENA countries are projected to experience high losses in \r\nGDP by 2050 (World Bank, 2016)."


id: 870d311ddad3ad3323ddbdea6122dbbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18777
content:
"The Mediterranean region is predominantly vulnerable to the impacts \r\nof warming, notably prolonged and stronger heat waves, increased \r\ndrought in an already dry climate and risk of coastal flooding (Section \r\nCCP4.1). southern and eastern countries are generally more vulnerable \r\nthan countries in the north. Several countries (Tunisia, Algeria and Libya) \r\nare below the water scarcity threshold set by the Food and Agriculture \r\nOrganization of the United Nations (FAO); others (Morocco) are close \r\nto the threshold for severe water stress. Uncertainties regarding the \r\ntiming, duration, intensity and interval between extreme climatic events \r\nput some sectors, such as agriculture and tourism, at particular risk in \r\nthe Mediterranean region (Section CCP4.3; Kallis, 2008; Kutiel, 2019)."


id: edd48130accf137c44539b7da2d94727
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 34880
content:
"All Mediterranean countries are vulnerable to climate change across \r\nmost socioeconomic sectors. In low-income countries of the Basin, a \r\n1.1-point reduction of gross domestic product (GDP) could occur as a \r\nconsequence of 1degC rise warming (Radhouane, 2013). In Morocco, GDP \r\nimpacts of climate change could be -3% to +0.4% by 2050 relative \r\nto 2003 (Ouraich and Tyner, 2018). In Middle East and North Africa \r\n(MENA) countries, approximately 10-13% of GDP loss is projected for \r\nan increase in global mean temperature of 4.8degC by 2100 (Kompas \r\net al., 2018). In Southern Europe, mean labour productivity loss would \r\nshrink by approximately 2% under 2degC warming, along with a GDP \r\nloss of 0.1% by the 2030s, reaching 0.4% by the 2080s (Szewczyk \r\net al., 2018)."


id: acb0f4153307b47ee0751d9e4ee7a486
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24718
content:
"As MENA countries are net food importers, they are not only vulnerable \r\nto the impact of climate change on food production in the Mediterranean \r\nregion, but also the climate impacts on food production elsewhere, for \r\nexample, in China and Russia (Waha et al., 2017). The agri-food sector \r\nin the Mediterranean region is also important for global food security \r\nbecause several large producing countries in the region, such as France, \r\nItaly and Morocco, are net exporters of many essential micronutrients \r\nto low- and lower-middle-income countries. Changing quantity and \r\nquality of production would have direct (availability) and indirect (price \r\nsignals) impacts on their trade partners."


id: 703f8ea536d589df1690d271fafbd9b9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 15277
content:
"Freshwater resources are vulnerable to climate change and growing \r\ndemand, notably from agriculture (Section 4.1.3; Gudmundsson et al., \r\n2017; Zabalza-Martinez et al., 2018; Masseroni et al., 2020). The share \r\nof GDP and population exposed to high or very high water stress in \r\nMENA countries is 71% and 61%, respectively, compared to 22% \r\nand 36% in the world (World Bank, 2018). Freshwater resources are \r\nalso vulnerable to sea level rise and associated salinisation (Ali and \r\nEl-Magd, 2016; Wassef and Schuttrumpf, 2016; Twining-Ward et  al., \r\n2018). Due to the impact of climate change on water supplies (-14% "


id: d6579d77ed320dd003674ac71f7e881d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 31241
content:
"The economic value of fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea is over USD \r\n3.4 billion (Randone et al., 2017), with about 76,250 fishing vessels in \r\n2019 (FAO, 2020), most of them (about 62%) in the eastern and central \r\nMediterranean (FAO, 2018). Total employment on-board fishing vessels \r\nis 202,000 and six countries, Tunisia, Algeria, Turkey, Italy, Greece and \r\nEgypt, account for approximately 82% of total employment (FAO, \r\n2020). About 78% of the fish stocks in the Mediterranean are currently "


id: dfdcdb65f448e6e2dfda0fabdacd8f9c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32716
content:
"fished at unsustainable levels (Galli et al., 2015). The share of stocks \r\nin overexploitation has decreased from 88% in 2012 to 75% in 2018 \r\n(FAO, 2020). Nearly half of the catches consist of small pelagic species \r\n(anchovies, sardines, herrings), which are very vulnerable to increased \r\nseawater temperatures (FAOSTAT, 2019). Turkey is particularly sensitive \r\nto climate change in the fisheries sector (Turan et al., 2016; Hidalgo \r\net al., 2018). Fisheries in northern countries are less vulnerable because \r\nthey have a greater capacity to adapt (i.e., more assets, flexibility, \r\nlearning potential and social organisation), while southern countries \r\nare more vulnerable (Ding et al., 2017). The reduction of fish availability \r\ndirectly impacts the income of employees, for example, in the Italian \r\nfisheries industry (Tulone et al., 2019)."


id: 84edd73395f744f6fcb309cddd08c81b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 18436
content:
"of the total food import in 2014 (FAO, 2018), thereby increasing food \r\nimport dependence of southern countries (INRA, 2015; Saladini et al., \r\n2018). Sharp increases in international food prices since 2007 have \r\ncaused inflation, trade deficits, fiscal pressure, increased poverty and \r\npolitical instability, all affecting food supply, notably in the south and \r\neast of the region (Harrigan, 2011; Kamrava and Babar, 2012; Ferragina \r\nand Canitano, 2015; Paciello, 2015)."


id: a7d526555d1a209fd398eb9c0ba2ccc1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23916
content:
"Mediterranean forests are diverse and play a major ecological and \r\nsocial role through significant ecosystem services, including wood, but \r\nalso their recreational value and production of non-wood goods, such \r\nas mushrooms (Ding et al., 2016; Penuelas et al., 2017; Gauquelin et al., \r\n2018; Herrero et al., 2019). Many forests grow at the dry margin of \r\ntheir distribution area; therefore, projected drier conditions will affect \r\ntheir productivity and health (Doblas-Miranda et  al., 2017; Dorado\u0002Linan et  al., 2019; Sanguesa-Barreda et  al., 2019). Vulnerability to \r\nwildfire is a significant matter of concern, particularly in the northern \r\nand southwestern Mediterranean region (Ager et al., 2014; Gomes da \r\nCosta et al., 2020). In Cordoba (Spain), for example, fire suppression \r\ncosts have increased by 66-87% in the last decade (Molina et  al., \r\n2019)."


id: 33edb128916c3eb25dbf61a99d93f7cc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5588
content:
"One-third of the Mediterranean population (about 150 million people) \r\ncurrently lives close to the sea, often in growing urban regions and \r\nwith infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise (Cross-Chapter Box SLR \r\nin Chapter 3; Briche et al., 2016; UN DESA, 2017). Future exposure to \r\nsea level rise is related to demographic growth. All SSPs project an \r\nincrease of coastal population in the Mediterranean region to 2050. \r\nBy 2100, coastal population could grow by up to 130%, mostly in \r\nthe south, but it could also drop by 20% for SSP1 (Reimann et  al., \r\n2018b). Overall, countries in the southeastern Mediterranean are most \r\nvulnerable to coastal risks, but the exposure is also high in the northern \r\nMediterranean (Satta et al., 2017)."


id: 9961664d5a988e2fd84f8f7c2dcdaeec
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21654
content:
"The Mediterranean region accounts for one-third of global tourism with \r\n330 million tourists in 2016 (Tovar-Sanchez et al., 2019). Before the \r\nCOVID-19 crisis, international tourist arrivals were assumed to increase \r\nby 60% between 2015 and 2030, reaching 500 million. In 2015, tourism \r\nsupported 15% of the total employment in the region (Randone et al., \r\n2017). France, Spain, Italy and Greece are the top tourist destinations \r\n(UNWTO, 2016), but the highest growth was in Turkey, Croatia and \r\nAlbania during 1995-2015 (MGI, 2017). The tourism industry is \r\nvulnerable to climate change, particularly in low-income countries \r\n(Dogru et al., 2016; Dogru et al., 2019). Coastal tourism in the region \r\ngenerates USD 300 billion annually followed by marine tourism (USD \r\n110 billion) (Radhouane, 2013; Randone et al., 2017)."


id: dec5ba99043ff6dec388f1a60a4c5ecd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 32546
content:
"In terms of the number of people, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia are \r\nthe most exposed countries to sea level rise (World Bank, 2014), and \r\nthis difference is projected to increase under SSP2-4 (Reimann et al., \r\n2018a). Among MENA countries, Egypt is particularly exposed with \r\nseveral coastal cities at risk of inundation (Frihy et al., 2010; Solyman \r\nand Abdel Monem, 2020; Elshinnawy and Almaliki, 2021). In the Nile \r\nDelta, between 1500 and 2600 km2\r\n of land are projected to be exposed \r\nto flooding by 2100 by a sea level rise of 0.75 m (median sea level \r\nrise scenario for SSP5-85) and additional subsidence up to 0.25 m, \r\nthreatening around 6.3  million residents (Figure  CCP4.6; Ali and El\u0002Magd, 2016; Solyman and Abdel Monem, 2020). Basin-wide economic \r\nlosses are estimated at USD 5 billion, assuming a rise of sea levels by \r\n1.26 m in 2100 (Frihy et al., 2010; World Bank, 2014)."


id: 313c581c2b6a819e0cc478cdde0d1247
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5166
content:
"By providing around 550,000 jobs in the Mediterranean region, the \r\nmaritime transport and trade industry comprises approximately 20-\r\n40% of GDP. As a hub for trade, the Mediterranean, with approximately \r\n600 ports of different sizes, accounts for 25% of all international \r\nseaborne trade, including 22% of oil trade. In the region, the shift to \r\ngreen energy to combat climate change would significantly influence \r\nthe structure of foreign trade in terms of commodities and maritime \r\nenergy transport flows (Manoli, 2021)."


id: 4a0e72dfc6227b600dcb3975697fea59
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 9053
content:
"The Mediterranean area is characterised by high human mobility, \r\nmostly within countries, but also between them (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox MIGRATE in Chapter 7; Charef and Dorai, 2016; Ben Youssef et al., \r\n2017). In 2017, the value of remittances from migrants was about 16% \r\nof southern Mediterranean countries' exports to the European Union \r\n(EU) (Alcidi et  al., 2019). Impacts of recent climate change, notably "


id: 187e016b367414da2333994c96af4df1
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 1346
content:
"With population growth, food demand in the region increases and will \r\ncontinue to do so, while regional food production on land and from the \r\nsea is threatened by climate change, creating the need for additional \r\nimport. In MENA countries, livestock production increased by 25% in \r\n1993-2013, causing animal feed imports to increase to about 32% "


id: 99b1b0ced79e48e016f5bed12d895d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 21701
content:
"Present-day and projected land below high-tides in the Nile delta, due to sea level rise and land subsidence\r\n(a) Present-day conditions(b) 2100, at 0.43 m sea level rise (SSP1-2.6)"


id: 91fe6ad4d9d887a5772feb861168b27d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 20492
content:
"Present-day and projected exposure to sea level rise in the Nile Delta, due to sea level change and land subsidence: (a) current exposure, \r\n 2degC of global warming by 2100, (c) exposure for 3degC of global warming by 2100, (d) exposure for a high-end sea level rise scenario \r\nnal mass losses from the Antarctica ice sheet (Frihy et al., 2010; Ali and El-Magd, 2016; Kulp and Strauss, 2019); sea level scenarios from \r\nr 9, Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; see Chapter 4 Supplementary Material for additional details."


id: c7231b610f16795362aa9338a604ffb6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28916
content:
"drought and their effects on human livelihoods and vulnerability, may \r\nhave contributed to migration decisions, although there is debate \r\nabout the relative importance (Kelley et  al., 2015; Frohlich, 2016; \r\nHamed et  al., 2018; Ash and Obradovich, 2020). One study of five \r\nMENA countries estimated that extreme climate events account for \r\nabout 10-20% of migration, with an expected increase of the role of \r\nenvironmental factors in the future as climatic conditions deteriorate \r\nfurther (Wodon et al., 2014)."


id: aba13972bbd9eacb66716370fcfe57d9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 24525
content:
"Improved sharing and co-production of knowledge can support \r\nclimate adaptation practices, ensure their implementation and thereby \r\nreduce vulnerability (Nguyen et al., 2019), for example, in the water \r\nsector (Iglesias and Garrote, 2015; Iglesias et al., 2018) and notably \r\nriver management (Tabara et al., 2018). The individual perception of \r\nclimate risks is also a component of vulnerability (Nguyen et al., 2016). \r\nUnderstanding the gap between perceptions and scientific evidence, \r\nand increasing risk perception and awareness, will be crucial to \r\npromote adaptive responses both at the individual and the collective \r\nlevel throughout the Mediterranean Basin (Macias et  al., 2015; \r\nBodoque et al., 2016; Cramer et al., 2018)."


id: 47f488d4c391153d6eaf9bf9ed0f9097
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 8695
content:
"Combined with storm surges, sea level rise may disrupt Mediterranean \r\nport operations (Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; Sierra et al., 2016), with \r\nrisks depending on adaptation, physical protection measures and basin \r\ndepth. Risks for deep ports are more limited (Sierra et al., 2017), while \r\nlow-depth small harbours, common in the Mediterranean, could be \r\nsignificantly affected (Sierra et al., 2016). Sea level rise may enhance \r\nsandy beach erosion and thereby impact recreation and tourism (Bitan \r\nand Zviely, 2018; Rizzetto, 2020), magnifying coastal degradation and \r\npollution (Enriquez et al., 2017; Gossling et al., 2018)."


id: f11a8ca4352244236f798d44fbb9fe3d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 35432
content:
"anchovy) is projected to decline by 15-33% by 2100 (Stergiou et al., \r\n2016; Raybaud et al., 2017)."


id: bd63084d52d163db63a3879f6dc663c6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 27361
content:
"Beyond 3degC GWL, 13-30% of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 \r\nprotected area and 15-23% of Natura 2000 sites are projected to \r\nchange towards more arid ecosystem types (Barredo et  al., 2016). \r\nBiodiversity and ecosystem services would be exposed to degradation \r\nof wetland hydrology, which could affect 19-32% of localities under \r\na 1.5degC-2degC GWL (48-73% under higher warming), particularly in \r\nSpain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria (Lefebvre et al., 2019). There is \r\nalso a substantial shrinking of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem \r\nhabitats, in particular in Mediterranean islands (Chapters 2; 4; CCP1)."


id: d02943a4626853fc76ec040d419668db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30282
content:
"Sea level rise is the origin of multiple risks for low-lying areas in the \r\nMediterranean Basin; for example, the further increase in flooding at \r\nhigh tide in some locations, such as Venice (high confidence) (Chapter \r\n13; Cid et al., 2016; Pomaro et al., 2017). Currently, 37% of coastal \r\nareas are at moderate to high risk from coastal erosion and flooding \r\n(Satta et  al., 2017). Due to rapid urban development, many coastal \r\nassets are directly exposed to projected sea level rise and coastal \r\nhazards, with limited adaptation options and resilience of beaches \r\n(Section CCP4.2;Brown et al., 2016; Jimenez et al., 2017)."


id: 5c2de9b94fb0d70a2de481ac515de361
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 12016
content:
"Increased aridity impacts forest ecosystems (Costa-Saura et al., 2017; \r\nGarcia Sanchez et  al., 2018). Increasing heat waves, combined with \r\ndrought and land use change, reduce fuel moisture, thereby increasing \r\nfire risk, extending the duration of fire seasons and increasing the \r\nlikelihood of large, severe fires (high confidence) (EEA, 2017; Lozano \r\net  al., 2017; Penuelas et  al., 2017; Varela et  al., 2019). Fires impact \r\nvegetation recovery after abandonment, thus transforming landscapes \r\n(Gonzalez-De Vega et al., 2016). At warming levels of 1.5degC, 2degC and \r\n3degC, burnt area in Mediterranean Europe could increase by 40-54%, \r\n62-87% and 96-187%, respectively (Turco et  al., 2018b), although \r\nchanges are highly site dependent and also affected by management \r\n(Caon et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2015; Parra and Moreno, 2018; Brotons and \r\nDuane, 2019; Hinojosa et al., 2019)."


id: f112e61a5795ff1f44441a4f5a7e8dee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35426
content:
"Desertification occurs in large parts of the region, generally due to \r\nunsustainable land use (Penuelas et al., 2017). Increasing drought is \r\nprojected to exacerbate desertification in North Africa and, under high \r\nwarming, also southern Spain. In some areas, sclerophyllous vegetation \r\ncould replace deciduous forests (Guiot and Cramer, 2016). Increasing \r\ntemperatures and drought could trigger dieback for some forest \r\nspecies such as Mediterranean oak (Sanchez-Salguero et  al., 2020), \r\npotentially also in combination with biotic factors such as pathogens \r\n(Matias et al., 2019)."


id: c7010ffdc1252e3187b719b17e7f497c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28889
content:
"River runoff and low flows are expected to decrease (possibly by 12-\r\n15% or more) in most locations due to reduced precipitation (Giuntoli \r\net al., 2015; Roudier et al., 2016; Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Gosling \r\net al., 2017; Marchane et al., 2017; Marcos-Garcia et al., 2017; Marx \r\net al., 2018; Yeste et al., 2021). Groundwater recharge is projected to \r\ndecrease due to reduced inflow (WGI AR6 Chapter 11, Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021; Koutroulis et al., 2016; Guyennon et al., 2017; Braca et al., "


id: 287954307b34b4ce92a0a5c74a794443
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 3782
content:
"Irrigation requirements for date palms in Tunisia under RCP8.5 could increase by 34% in 2050 from present to sustain date production (Haj-Amor et al., 2020), with \r\nadverse effects on groundwater resources."


id: 23d3a4f3b9769b3a2639e121f5aa0309
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 3079
content:
"Climate change will likely reduce crop yields in many areas \r\n(Table  CCP4.1), mainly due to higher temperatures affecting crop \r\nphenology and the shortening of the crop growing season (high \r\nconfidence). Additional irrigation will be needed for most crops, \r\nalthough the shortening of the growing season could reduce irrigation \r\nneeds in some cases (Saadi et al., 2015). Irrigation needs could increase \r\nby 25% in northern and two-fold in southeastern Mediterranean (Fader \r\net  al., 2016), with arid southern areas at risk of insufficient water \r\nresources by 2100. The use of supplemental irrigation for winter wheat \r\ncould become more common in northern Mediterranean (Saadi et al., \r\n2015; Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018)."


id: 8bb4bc63c1a7122eb9100888f2ba2716
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 19501
content:
"Cultural heritage sites in the region face risks from coastal flooding, \r\nwith 37 out of 49 cultural World Heritage sites today facing risk from \r\na 100-year flood, and 42 of them from coastal erosion (Reimann \r\net al., 2018b). Sea level rise will increase these risks (high confidence) \r\n(Lionello, 2012; Rizzi et al., 2017; Reimann et al., 2018b; Ravanelli et al., \r\n2019; Tagliapietra et al., 2019). By 2100, 47 of the 49 United Nations \r\nEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) sites are \r\nprojected to be at risk from coastal flooding or erosion (Reimann \r\net al., 2018b). Beyond 2100, sea levels are committed to rise further \r\nand represent an existential threat for the high number of coastal \r\ncultural heritage located in the Mediterranean (WGI AR6 Chapter 9, \r\nFox-Kemper et al., 2021; Chapter 13; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter \r\n3; Marzeion and Levermann, 2014)."


id: 5a43188ac7cd98d42cdfeec6af19ab65
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11705
content:
"Overall, reduced crop yields and fishery landings, combined with other \r\nfactors such as rapid population growth and urbanisation, increasing \r\ncompetition for water and changing lifestyles, will likely impact food \r\nsecurity, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East (Jobbins and \r\nHenley, 2015)."


id: e6e3164682b4952a42c2f2107e4aec12
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 33811
content:
"Warming is projected to impact human health, mostly through increased \r\nintensity, frequency and duration of heat waves (high confidence) \r\n(Guerreiro et  al., 2018; Jacob et  al., 2018; Rohat et  al., 2019; Smid \r\net al., 2019). Under current socioeconomic conditions, 53-93 million \r\nmore people could be exposed to high or very high heat stress in \r\nnorthern Mediterranean by 2050 (Rohat et al., 2019) and heat-related \r\nexcess mortality could increase by more than six-fold above 3degC GWL \r\n(Gasparrini et al., 2017). In MENA countries, the mortality risk of the \r\nelderly in 2100 could be 8-20 times higher under RCP8.5 compared to \r\n1951-2005, and still 3-7 times higher under RCP4.5 (Ahmadalipour \r\nand Moradkhani, 2018). Deaths attributable to high temperatures in \r\nthe northern Mediterranean could increase by 18-20,000 in 2050 \r\n(50,000 in 2100) under RCP8.5 (1.4 and 2.6 times lower under RCP4.5) \r\n(Kendrovski et al., 2017)."


id: 9714528fea48bdafa627debef0300430
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 21286
content:
"For the Mediterranean Basin, all currently projected pathways of climate \r\nchange will exacerbate climate-related risks in multiple systems and \r\neconomic sectors, and for human health and well-being, amplifying \r\ncurrent pressures on local ecosystems, economies and human well\u0002being (Figures CCP4.7; CCP4.8; Cramer et al., 2018; MedECC, 2020). \r\nWhile the majority of these risks apply across the entire region, many \r\nare specific for certain sub-regions or locations."


id: a27036519206dec4c277f84bf4fd4954
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 23121
content:
"Climate change and variability may also influence the emergence of \r\nvector-, food- and water-borne diseases (Negev et  al., 2015). Under \r\nRCP8.5, the epidemic potential of dengue fever in Southern Europe \r\nis projected to increase by 2100 (Liu-Helmersson et  al., 2019), as \r\nwell as the risk of infections by West Nile virus in 2050 under A1B \r\n(Semenza et al., 2016). Climate-induced diseases could reduce labour \r\nproductivity in the region by 2060, particularly in MENA countries \r\n(Dellink et al., 2019). Overall, there is still uncertainty in projections \r\nof the future severity and distribution of diseases because of climate \r\nchange due to the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens and \r\nvectors. Reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption as a result of \r\nclimate change on food availability could lead to more than 20,000 \r\ndeaths in 2050 under RCP8.5 from diseases caused by malnutrition \r\n(Springmann et al., 2016)."


id: 963e80cc2a80ab6b398fcf0c8a8151b4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 21143
content:
"Adaptation options for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems \r\nand fisheries include improving and enlarging the regional network \r\nof marine protected areas, transnational management of marine food \r\nresources, sustainable fishery practices, developing collaborative \r\nmonitoring, research and managing knowledge platforms for fisheries \r\n(Bjorkan et al., 2020; Raicevich et al., 2020) and sustainable aquaculture \r\n(Ehlers, 2016; Lacroix, 2016)."


id: 7c08610f4f4bc6fe43e6fcf27cefb510
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 17118
content:
"Extreme high temperatures, hot days and nights and consequently \r\ncooling degree days will likely increase (high confidence) (Spinoni \r\net  al., 2018a; Coppola et  al., 2021), with specific cooling needs in \r\ncities possibly increasing by 50-278% under 2degC GWL and 134-\r\n375% beyond 3degC GWL (Cellura et  al., 2018). Urban heat island \r\neffects will further increase cooling needs (Salvati et al., 2017; Zinzi \r\nand Carnielo, 2017). Higher temperatures will increase thermal and \r\nchemical stress on materials used in many ancient buildings and \r\nsculptures, such as marble, stone and masonry (Bonazza et al., 2009; \r\nLeissner et al., 2015)."


id: b60538d011adccb83ce534101f46bc85
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 26167
content:
"Many studies project a decrease of climatic comfort for tourism in the \r\nMediterranean by 2071 to 2100, particularly during summer (Grillakis \r\net al., 2016; Jacob et al., 2018; Braki and Anagnostopoulou, 2019). There \r\nis adaptive potential in the extension of the period with favourable \r\nclimatic conditions for urban tourism in northern Mediterranean cities \r\n(Scott et al., 2016). Water scarcity may create additional constraints for \r\ntourism (Koberl et al., 2016)."


id: b36cc90ed33fe19c3c18a1f82f76fd33
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 25735
content:
"Figure  CCP4.7 |   Key risks in the Mediterranean and their location across the Mediterranean region for SSP5-RCP8.5 by 2100 (Sections CCP4.3.\r\nTable SMCCP4.2a and b for details). Risks to World Cultural Heritage sites from flooding or erosion due to sea level rise in multiple locations (Section CCP4.3.5) \r\nMediterranean river deltas are hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (Section CCP4.3.2). The population exposed to risks is mapped for an SSP5-8.5 pathway. Adaptation \r\nreduce these risks (Section CCP4.4) (based on: Reimann et al., 2018a; 2018b; Wolff et al., 2018)."


id: e2de626fc8def98761b8f07ee5595c04
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 33193
content:
"Figure CCP4.8 |  Summary of key risks for the Mediterranean (Sections CCP4.3.2-8; Table SMCCP4.2a-h for details). Coastal risks include one burning ember \r\ndisplaying additional risks due to climate change as specific GWL are exceeded (Coastal risks), and one burning ember describing additional risks due to committed sea level rise \r\nat timescales of centuries and millennia for long-living infrastructure and cultural heritage (WGI AR6 Chapter 9, Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Marzeion et al., 2014; Marzeion and \r\nLevermann, 2014; Clark et al., 2016; see SMCCP4.2h)."


id: 3d7bed737603aaade3fe309d7aeafa56
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 7032
content:
"(Djuma et al., 2017; De Giglio et al., 2018; Missimer and Maliva, 2018; \r\nBaena-Ruiz et al., 2020), and waste water reuse (Kalavrouziotis et al., \r\n2015; Barba-Sunol et al., 2018; Cherfouh et al., 2018). On the demand \r\nside, options include changing diet and water consumption patterns \r\n(Blas et al., 2016; Gul et al., 2017; Blas et al., 2018), and enhancing \r\nwater use efficiency in the tourism and food sectors (Hadjikakou et al., \r\n2013; Moresi, 2014)."


id: e47070e51b600f1b0696ba9f6b6ddf9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 33420
content:
"In forests, adaptation to impacts of warming and drought may involve \r\nmultiple forest management strategies, such as thinning (Fernandez\u0002de-Una et al., 2015; Giuggiola et al., 2016; Aldea et al., 2017; del Rio \r\net al., 2017; Gleason et al., 2017; Lechuga et al., 2017; Vila-Cabrera \r\net  al., 2018), increasing the share of drought-tolerant species and \r\nprovenances (Hlasny et  al., 2014; Calvo et  al., 2016), or promoting \r\nmixed-species stands (Ruiz-Benito et  al., 2014; Guyot et  al., 2016; \r\nSanchez-Pinillos et al., 2016; del Rio et al., 2017; Jactel et al., 2017; \r\nRatcliffe et al., 2017)."


id: efa4c822c19cea8d61ce723fab3a080d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35205
content:
"Adaptation options to increased fire risks include improved planning \r\nof residential development such as to avoid inevitable wildfire \r\n(Schoennagel et  al., 2017; Samara et  al., 2018), improved fire \r\nsuppression capacities and strategies (Brotons et al., 2013; Regos et al., \r\n2014; Khabarov et al., 2016; Turco et al., 2018a; 2018b), managing and \r\nplanning landscape matrix schemes to reduce fire risk (de Rigo et al., \r\n2017; Erdos et al., 2018), thinning, slash management and prescribed \r\nburning techniques (Fernandes et al., 2016; 2018; Khabarov et al., 2016; \r\nRegos et al., 2016; Pique and Domenech, 2018; Samara et al., 2018; \r\nVila-Cabrera et  al., 2018; Duane et  al., 2019), as well as understory \r\ngrazing (Varga et al., 2016; Vila-Cabrera et al., 2018)."


id: 988a5abca5beeec84d1e5fea8e7461f8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 21513
content:
"Adaptation of forest management generally requires improved \r\nmonitoring systems of forest condition and natural disturbances \r\n(Hlasny et  al., 2014; Hengeveld et  al., 2015; Maes et  al., 2015), \r\nsupported by participatory forest management and planning processes \r\nand local self-governance mechanisms (Bouriaud et al., 2013; 2015)."


id: 53b8ab2e6a51a92c02ce79813e9d1830
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10637
content:
"Other adaptation options in the agricultural sector include agro\u0002ecological techniques that increase the water retention capacity \r\nof soils (mulching, zero tillage, reduced tillage, etc.) (Aguilera et al., \r\n2013a; Aguilera et al., 2013b; Almagro et al., 2016; Sanz-Cobena et al., \r\n2017; Tomaz et  al., 2017; Bhakta et  al., 2019; Garcia-Tejero et  al., \r\n2020) and promoting crop diversification, adapting the crop calendar \r\nand the use of new varieties adapted to evolving conditions. Many of \r\nthese strategies for more sustainable production are also intended to \r\naddress the food security risks and import dependence in the region. \r\nOther options are to manage nitrogen resources, food demand, change \r\ndiets and reduce food waste (Billen et  al., 2018; Schils et  al., 2018; \r\nBillen et al., 2019; Garnier et al., 2019; Aguilera et al., 2020; Lassaletta \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 600eca613eed835b629dd4e27a6a0b47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 12690
content:
"For freshwater ecosystems, adaptation options include hydrological \r\nand land use planning at basin scale, which can be complemented \r\nwith local conservation and restoration efforts, and the preservation \r\nof natural flow variability of rivers and streams (Aspe et  al., 2016; \r\nLoizidou et al., 2016; Cid et al., 2017; Mencio and Boix, 2018; Morant \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 6d3dfd51ea1a1035477c7f5c3b06a39e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 14806
content:
"Adaptation options to address water shortages at the national scale \r\ninclude transboundary resource management (Escriva-Bou et  al., \r\n2017; Pulido-Velazquez et  al., 2018), promoting fair, equitable and \r\nsustainable water trade in international markets (Johansson et  al., \r\n2016; Lee et al., 2019), regional, national and basin-scale management \r\nplans for water resources (Wilhite et al., 2014; Paneque, 2015; Urquijo \r\net  al., 2015; Estrela and Sancho, 2016; Vargas and Paneque, 2019), \r\nimproved groundwater monitoring and strategic management (Pulido\u0002Velazquez et al., 2020), and economic instruments to manage water \r\ndemand (prices policies, markets and subsidies)."


id: 4fda0386210ccda4e01f3a0711a5a09
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10002
content:
"In the Mediterranean region, adapting to increasing heat wave impacts \r\ninvolves local urban health adaptation plans, as well as increasing \r\nthe capacity of healthcare systems (Fernandez Milan and Creutzig, \r\n2015; Larsen, 2015; Paz et al., 2016; Liotta et al., 2018; Reckien et al., \r\n2018; Tsiros et al., 2018). Local urban adaptation strategies need to \r\nbe integrative and address housing and infrastructure, the increase \r\nand design of urban green areas, education and awareness-raising \r\nof the most vulnerable communities, the implementation of early \r\nwarning systems for extreme events and the surveillance of climate \r\nchange induced diseases, the strengthening of local emergency and \r\nhealthcare services, and the general strengthening adaptive capacity \r\nof the community and of the local institutions."


id: a09e59a7b070308ba3bdea682fed2c9e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22812
content:
"Technical options include the reduction of losses in water distribution \r\nnetworks for drinking water and irrigation (Burak and Margat, 2016; \r\nFader et al., 2016), desalinisation, often combined with generation of \r\nelectricity (Papanicolas et al., 2016; Bonanos et al., 2017; Jones et al., \r\n2019), artificial recharge of groundwater and subterranean dams "


id: 9b3bc05977cf82741b9ef26a3c51b45a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 21960
content:
"that promote fair solutions for all and take into account region-specific \r\nsocioeconomic and geopolitical variabilities and vulnerabilities, such as \r\nthe lack of inclusive and participatory approaches (Iglesias and Garrote, \r\n2015) and pre-existing vulnerabilities, as in the case of Palestine (Jarrar, \r\n2015) and Syria (Gleick, 2014)."


id: 66751004c8e9dedf094015a10a3da89
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13712
content:
"There is low confidence that the Mediterranean region can adapt to \r\nrapid sea level rise for the case of rapid Antarctic ice-sheets collapse, \r\neven in regions with high capabilities to adapt, such as the northwest \r\nMediterranean (Poumadere et al., 2008). Residual coastal risks are \r\nstill largely unquantified. For moderate levels of sea level rise, it is \r\nunlikely that these changes alone will exceed the technical limits of \r\ncoastal adaptation over the 21st century (Hinkel et al., 2018). Beyond \r\n2100, continued sea level rise may require managed retreat in low\u0002lying Mediterranean areas, particularly in delta areas, such as the \r\nNile (Figure CCP4.6). There is little knowledge on the potential for \r\nadaptation at these timescales."


id: 88d29fe5d4ce5a3c08265a6ebeec0b03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 19062
content:
"Climate-resilient sustainable development pathways are trajectories \r\nthat combine adaptation and mitigation to realise the goal of \r\nsustainable development through iterative, continually evolving \r\nsocioecological processes (Chapters 1; 18; Denton et  al., 2014). \r\nTransformative adaptation can be promoted through social and \r\npolitical processes, identifying the enabling conditions and strategies \r\nthat facilitate structural changes (UNEP/MAP, 2016; Ramieri et  al., \r\n2018; EC, 2020; UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu, 2020). The main options \r\ninclude ongoing structural change in the renewable energy system in \r\nthis region, the production of renewable biological resources, measures \r\ntowards increased water irrigation efficiency, behavioural changes in \r\nmultiple sectors and improved regional governance (Table  CCP4.2; \r\nCramer et al., 2018)."


id: d0b39efbc8306b530ee1642beca57b14
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 30365
content:
"There also are risks for nonlinear climate change impacts in key \r\nsocioeconomic and environmental processes, which could promote \r\nreactive changes and forced transformations (Table CCP4.3)."


id: 69fa883b242902c75a3f60564d09c151
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"In the Mediterranean Basin, indicators for progress towards the \r\nSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) show multiple directions of \r\ntransformative change (Sachs et al., 2019). In some sectors, such as \r\nenergy, there are general positive trends in sustainability (UNEP/MAP, \r\n2016), but there also are significant imbalances between northern and \r\nsouthern shores of the basin for most SDGs. Over the coming decades \r\nthe Mediterranean Basin will likely experience sustained growth in \r\nrenewable energy investments, accompanied by a shift in regional \r\ngeographical patterns of energy demand (OME, 2018). However, \r\nfuture developmental pathways, solution space and feasible system \r\ntransformations could be constrained by multiple factors for several \r\nSDGs, such as social conflicts, lack of regional governance, limited \r\naction capacity and financial constraints (Figure CCP4.9; Table CCP4.3)."


id: b21779614df89c54f87bf225a34840a4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Several multilateral institutions are managing international \r\nenvironmental governance in the Mediterranean Sea, including, (a) the \r\nBarcelona Convention or Convention for the Protection of the Marine \r\nEnvironment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean (established \r\nunder the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP), (b) the \r\nGeneral Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM, a \r\nsubsidiary of the FAO) and (iii) the Agreement on the Conservation \r\nof Cetaceans in the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea (ACCOBAMS, also \r\nunder UNEP). These institutions act cooperatively pursuing synergies \r\nand greater effectiveness (Lacroix, 2016). The Mediterranean Action \r\nPlan (MAP) under the Barcelona Convention System involves 21 \r\nMediterranean countries and the EU and promotes the Mediterranean "


id: fd5441e19b48b085bc72cba541c9517e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"To safeguard the rights of the most vulnerable people in the \r\nMediterranean region, climate adaptation plans and measures must \r\nconsider the cost of adaptation (Watts et al., 2019). In addition, some \r\nadaptation options can have side and residual effects, favouring some \r\ncountries/groups over others. Climate-just adaptation options are those "


id: b7b863c562c9664c00f1d97415a78a50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Table CCP4.2 |  Transformative adaptation and mitigation options for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin."


id: a577ee3a2324b5fd4f6acd033a5a00af
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Figure CCP4.9 |  Differences in present-day SDG indicator values between northern (blue) and southern (gold) Mediterranean count\r\nndicate better indicator values for the SDG descriptor. Red-shaded areas indicate poor performance on SDG values. Details of calculations and indicators "


id: c8371b77d51038c111dd85d2da9d7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Existing legal and institutional structures can facilitate coordination \r\nand collaboration across scales (DeCaro et  al., 2017). Legislative \r\nmechanisms, such as the rules governing water uses in time of \r\ndrought, already exist in some Mediterranean countries, but they \r\nmight not be suitable to cope with irreversible changes (e.g., the \r\ndepletion of groundwater aquifers) or be flexible enough to respond \r\nto the needs of water users under a changing climate (Nanni, 2012). \r\nAlthough legislation can be recognised as a tool in support of adaptive \r\nwater management, there is a need for better coordination among the \r\nvarious legal provisions that define institutional roles and set out the \r\nmechanisms for the management of water resources across different \r\nscales (regional/national/sub-national) and sectors (agriculture, \r\nindustry, urban, energy)."


id: 95bca531b7456814bb4bea2c194e956
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD), coordinated by the \r\nMediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development (MCSD) \r\n(UNEP/MAP, 2016). MAP is primarily financed by national governments \r\nand the EU. Its financial capacity for regional environmental \r\ngovernance remains limited, with available annual funds in the range \r\nof 5-10 million Euro (Humphrey and Lucas, 2015)."


id: db86513246d2ffa664fb1a443fbea3a6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 32054
content:
"Bilateral public climate finance in the Mediterranean area includes \r\nloans by multilateral development banks, bilateral official development \r\naid and international climate fund projects (Midgley et  al., 2018; \r\nTagliapietra, 2018). Bilateral public and private financial resources \r\ninvested in international climate finance in southern Mediterranean \r\ncountries are two orders of magnitude greater than the existing \r\nmultilateral regional governance programmes for the environment \r\n(EC, 2018; Midgley et al., 2018; Fosse et al., 2019). The MSSD is a tool \r\nfor enhancing the governance of environmental issues, proposing the \r\nbiannual reporting by the national parties of a set of quantitative \r\nindicators, including the commitments and obligations under the United \r\nNations Framework Convention on Climate Change climate agreement, \r\nand other climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions."


id: 31db4c8b4aad68a867950d2149239df7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Table CCP4.3 |  Nonlinear processes that could force reactive changes and social transformations for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin. \r\nNonlinearity implies the absence of a straight-line relationship between the independent variable and the response variable. In other words, changes in the output do not change in \r\ndirect proportion to changes in the independent variable and the form of the relationship is often described by applying nonlinear mathematical models. Gradual changes induced \r\nby climate warming in thermal exposure or rainfall availability can induce nonlinear effects on social and ecological response variables."


id: 35fbb3e6b59d4038a2a6ff53bf824970
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 5900
content:
"Is the Mediterranean 'a geographical area characterised by high vulnerability and exposure to climate change'? Climate change projections for \r\nthe Mediterranean Basin indicate with very high consistency that the region will experience higher temperatures, less rainfall and continued sea \r\nlevel rise during the coming decades. Given that summers are already comparatively dry, these factors together will likely cause substantially \r\ndrier and hotter conditions as well as coastal flooding, impacting people directly but also harming ecosystems on land and in the ocean."


id: 33ea8f626ce4c7646413a8f0549b8910
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"For the Mediterranean Basin, climate models consistently project regional warming at rates about 20% above \r\nglobal means and reduced rainfall (-12% for global warming of 3degC). While it is not the region with the highest \r\nrate of expected warming on Earth, the Mediterranean Basin is considered particular in comparison to most other \r\nregions due to the high exposure and vulnerability of human societies and ecosystems to these changes: a 'climate \r\nchange hotspot'."


id: 428d5604d19f2f8d09c4dcee55f9f63c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Rising temperatures trigger extensive evaporation of water from all wet surfaces, notably the sea, lakes and rivers, \r\nbut also from soils. Along with decreasing rainfall, this evaporation leads to shrinking water resources on land, \r\ndrier soils, reduced river flow, and significantly longer and more intensive drought spells. Since the Mediterranean \r\nclimate is already relatively dry and warm in the summer, any additional drought (and also heat) will affect plants, \r\nanimals and people significantly, and ultimately entire societies and economies."


id: bb7a8c058dd1953f43cee829f1f5a061
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 27056
content:
"In general, increasing temperatures and more intensive heat waves in the basin threaten human well-being, \r\neconomic activities, and also many ecosystems on land and in the ocean. Extreme rainfall events, which despite the "


id: 4856c5eeb66f781e2d19b426c3c123c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 8753
content:
"lower total rainfall are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in some regions, generate significant risks \r\nfor infrastructure and people through flash floods. Warming also affects the ocean and its ecosystems, jointly with \r\nacidification caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide. Finally, sea level rise, currently accelerating because of global \r\nice loss, threatens coastal ecosystems, historical sites and a growing human population."


id: 7c9ae8e5fbf8190cbe54f8c19e0f5cf4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 17200
content:
"Figure FAQ CCP4.1.1 |  Key risks across the Mediterranean region by 2100. The symbols above the map highlight risks enhanced by climate change \r\nwhich apply to the entire region with high confidence. Other risks are localised in the map."


id: 590c3eebbf6d7fe8cb2d99e6346a4984
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 11505
content:
"The rates of observed and projected sea level rise in the Mediterranean are similar to the Northeast Atlantic, potentially reaching 1.1 metres \r\nat the end of the present century. Erosion, flooding and the impacts of salinisation are projected to be particularly severe due to the special \r\nconditions of the coastal zones in the region. Beyond a few tens of centimetres, adaptation to sea level rise will require very large investments \r\nand may be impossible in some regions."


id: ca335db90a775d7398414fc7f44febb0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 29369
content:
"Sea level in the Mediterranean has been rising by only 1.4 mm  yr-1 during the 20th century, more recently by \r\n2.4+-0.5 mm yr-1 from 1993 to 2012, and it is bound to continue rising in the future. Future rates are projected to be \r\nsimilar to the global mean (within an uncertainty of 10-20 cm), potentially reaching 1.1 m or more around 2100 in \r\nthe event of 3degC of global warming (Figure FAQ CCP4.2; Table SMCCP4.4). Due to the ongoing ice loss in Greenland \r\nand Antarctica, this trend is expected to continue in coming centuries. Sea level rise already impacts extreme coastal \r\nwaters around the Mediterranean and it is projected to increase coastal flooding, erosion and salinisation risks. \r\nThese impacts would affect agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, urban development, port operations, tourism, \r\ncultural sites and many coastal ecosystems."


id: 3576afc9ed50fa3de3474bfaefc47c81
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Most of the Mediterranean Sea is a micro-tidal environment, which means that the difference between regular \r\nhigh and mean water levels (astronomical tides) is very small. Storm surges and waves can produce coastal floods \r\nthat persist for several hours, causing particularly large impacts on sandy coasts and eventually also on coastal \r\ninfrastructure. Mediterranean coasts are also characterised by narrow sandy beaches that are highly valuable for \r\ncoastal ecosystems and tourism. These beaches are projected to be increasingly affected by erosion and eventually \r\ndisappear where sedimentary stocks are small."


id: 39ff1f2cbc8f05176545804fcd7c415
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Overall, Mediterranean low-lying areas of significant width occur along 37% of the coastline and currently host \r\n42 million inhabitants. The coastal population growth projected until 2050 mostly occurs in southern Mediterranean \r\ncountries, with Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia being the most exposed countries to future sea level rise. The area \r\nat risk also hosts 49 cultural World Heritage sites, including the city of Venice and the early Christian monuments \r\nof Ravenna. The Mediterranean also includes areas subjected to sinking of the land (subsidence), including the \r\neastern Nile Delta (Egypt) and the Thessaloniki flood plain (Greece), where local relative sea level rise can exceed \r\n10 mm yr-1 today."


id: 4f188fd7c872f03dfe6511fcadeadc8d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Figure FAQ CCP4.2.1 |  Mediterranean Sea level projections. These projections translate the global estimates in WGI AR6 Chapter 9 to the Mediterranean \r\nBasin (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). They assume that sea level change in the Mediterranean continues to be forced by Atlantic Sea level change seen at the Gibraltar \r\nStrait (Section CCP4.1) and thus follow the global mean beyond 2100. Vertical ground motions induced by glacial isostatic adjustments are also included, but not \r\nthose due to other natural or anthropogenic processes such as tectonics or groundwater extractions. Intra-basin sea level changes are not included. Data available \r\nas supplementary material."


id: fcf8c3c3740e3581b5d9f0cc48a13d47
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Adaptation to sea level rise in the Mediterranean includes engineering or soft/ecosystem-based protection, \r\naccommodation, and retreat or managed realignment. Despite various limitations, adaptation already happens \r\ntoday to some extent, as for example the coastal flood and erosion protections along the subsiding Nile Delta coast. \r\nOnly massive coastal protection and other sustainable development policies could reduce the growing number \r\nof people exposed to sea level rise by 20%. It appears therefore likely that the number of people exposed could \r\nincrease by up to 130% by 2100."


id: c3ae05dd523c4d37adc6709e1b74744c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 28359
content:
"FAQ CCP4.3 | What is the link between climate change and human migration in the Mediterranean Basin?\r\nClimate change already influences conflict and migrations occurring within countries or regions. However, climate is only one of the multiple \r\nfactors affecting conflict and migration decisions across countries and regions. It is currently not possible to attribute particular conflicts or \r\nmigrations to climate change and also in the future migration will most likely depend on the economic, social and governance context."


id: 67a132356df5330c4bb35730bb71127
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13897
content:
"The Mediterranean Sea is the world's most dangerous place for migrants, with more than 20,000 deaths reported \r\nsince 2014. Although empirical evidence indicates that migration related to climate impacts is mostly internal to \r\nnational borders, climate change is likely to contribute to migration in the Mediterranean Basin as one out of \r\nseveral factors. Climate impacts contribute to migration flows particularly by affecting the economic and political \r\ndrivers of migration."


id: f470004e17a6c172a4e080ab4701044e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 35957
content:
"Many migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe originate from sub-Saharan Africa, a region \r\nheavily affected by climate change. In West Africa, for example, migration decisions are heavily influenced by \r\nperceptions of climate change and of its economic impact on resources and income. However, projections are \r\nuncertain, because climate impacts in Africa might both increase human suffering and thus enhance mobility, but \r\nthey could also limit mobility of people through lack of financial resources."


id: c4b1344d125f27adfbf9369eadbfce79
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 28515
content:
"The impacts of climate change on conflicts and security are increasingly documented, especially in Africa. Climate \r\nimpacts may not in itself have caused social and political unrest but can contribute to them. The conflict in Syria has \r\noccurred after the drought that marred the country in the years before, but there is no evidence for direct causal \r\nlinkage. There is, however, high agreement that food insecurity and land degradation, which can be induced by \r\nclimate change, are major drivers of political upheavals and instability in northern and sub-Saharan Africa."


id: 108237f02eac1b34d42633362bbb3d7d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Irasema Alcantara-Ayala (Mexico), Simon K. \r\nAllen (Switzerland/New Zealand), Maaike Bader (Germany), Sophie Bigler (Switzerland), James \r\nCamac (Australia), Ritodhi Chakraborty (New Zealand/India), Aida Cuni Sanchez (Norway/Spain), \r\nNicolas Cuvi (Ecuador), Fabian Drenkhan (Peru/Germany), Abid Hussain (Nepal/Pakistan), Amina \r\nMaharjan (Nepal), Robert Marchant (UK), Graham McDowell (Canada/USA), Samuel Morin \r\n(France), Laura Niggli (Switzerland), Ana Ochoa (Ecuador), Avash Pandey (Nepal), Julio Postigo \r\n(USA/Peru), Estelle Razanatsoa (South Africa/Madagascar), Valeria M. Rudloff (Chile), Christopher \r\nScott (USA), Madison Stevens (Canada), Daithi Stone (New Zealand), Jessica Thorn (UK/Namibia), \r\nJames Thornton (Switzerland/UK), Daniel Viviroli (Switzerland), Saskia Werners (The Netherlands)"


id: 7c4654bcb944601f6cb41b14139d3b42
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Adler, C., P.Wester, I. Bhatt, C. Huggel, G.E. Insarov, M.D. Morecroft, V. Muccione, and A. Prakash, 2022: Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 5: Mountains. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to \r\nthe Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, \r\nE.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. \r\nCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2273-2318, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.022."


id: c3d3cadf7f358734ca57df1fb9e0ee96
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28379
content:
"FAQ CCP5.1 | How is freshwater from mountain \r\nregions affected by climate change, and what are \r\nthe consequences for people and ecosystems?  2300"


id: c6a2d7c15486d01c33febe24b23eb40c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 28820
content:
"FAQ CCP5.2 | Do people in mountain regions, and further \r\ndownstream, face more severe risks to water-related \r\ndisasters due to climate change, and how are they \r\ncoping?  2301"


id: cc6c535aa4dd40d0744f87b79513173d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29700
content:
"FAQ CCP5.3 | Does climate change pose a risk to \r\nmountain species and ecosystems, and will this \r\naffect people?  2302"


id: f166e4d4f0f38fc1e73c07bd15fd5cd5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 35487
content:
"Climate-change-driven changes in precipitation, river flow \r\nregimes and landslides affect the production and use of \r\nenergy in mountain regions, in particular hydropower (high \r\nconfidence). Billions of USD in investment and assets of energy \r\nproduction are exposed to changing mountain hazards. The combined \r\neffects of climate change, hydropower development and other human \r\ninterventions have exacerbated water security problems and social \r\ninjustice (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.2, SROCC Chapter 2}"


id: 1291b33ddb76dbca5fc7d84303794ecc
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 417
content:
"Mountains are highly significant regions in the context of climate \r\nchange and sustainable development. They lie at the intersection of \r\naccelerated warming and large populations that depend directly or \r\nindirectly on them. They are regions of high biological and cultural \r\ndiversity and provide vital goods and services to people living in and \r\naround mountain regions and in downstream areas. Building on the \r\nIPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Chapter 2, 'High Mountain \r\nAreas', of the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a \r\nChanging Climate (SROCC) (Hock et al., 2019), and the IPCC Working \r\nGroup I contribution to AR6 (IPCC, 2021), this Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n(CCP) assesses new evidence on observed and projected climate \r\nchange impacts in mountain regions, their associated key risks and \r\nadaptation measures."


id: 53ddf058588a20e56813a0d82c9cd5fe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 10662
content:
"Observed climate-driven impacts on mountain ecosystem \r\nservices, agriculture and pastoralism are largely negative in \r\nmost mountain regions (medium confidence). Agriculture has \r\nbeen negatively affected through increased exposure to hazards such \r\nas droughts and floods, changes in the onset of seasons, the timing \r\nand availability of water, increasing pests and decreasing pollinator \r\ndiversity, which in turn have negatively influenced overall food \r\nproduction, dietary diversity and the nutritional value of food (medium \r\nconfidence). Negative climate impacts on pastoralism, such as drought\u0002induced degradation of rangelands and pastures, have affected \r\nlivestock productivity and the livelihood of pastoralists, while other \r\nnon-climatic factors, such as land use change and management, also \r\nplay a role (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.3; CCP5.2.5; Table CCP5.2; \r\nSROCC Section 2.3.1.3.2; SROCC Section 2.3.7}"


id: 343bde6349cb577bcdf86b3884662af8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5627
content:
"Climate change impacts in mountains and their attribution \r\nto human influence have increased in recent decades with \r\nobservable and serious consequences for people and ecosystems \r\nin many mountain regions (high confidence1\r\n). Observed changes \r\ninclude increasing temperatures, changing seasonal weather patterns, \r\nreductions in snow cover extent and duration at low elevation, loss of \r\nglacier mass, increased permafrost thaw and an increase in the number \r\nand size of glacier lakes (high confidence). {CCP5.2.7, Figure CCP5.4, \r\nSROCC Chapter 2, WGI Section 9.5}"


id: 28b1b7b92e2ea2e39a98816c39d65021
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 3831
content:
"While contributing to poverty reduction in some mountain \r\nregions, there is limited evidence of adaptations effectively \r\ncontributing to the remediation of underlying social \r\ndeterminants of vulnerability, such as gender and ethnicity \r\n(medium confidence). Exposure and vulnerability exacerbate the \r\nnegative effects of climate impacts on livelihoods and intertwine \r\nwith power imbalances and gender and other inequalities (medium \r\nconfidence). {CCP5.2.7; CCP5.3.2.2}"


id: beebb5477d9fb29190fb0981d089eb2c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 27591
content:
"The spatial distributions of many plant species have shifted \r\nto higher elevations in recent decades, consistent with rising \r\ntemperatures across most mountain regions (high confidence). \r\nAround two-thirds of treeline ecotones have also shifted upwards in \r\nrecent decades, though these shifts are not ubiquitous and slower than \r\nexpected based on rising temperatures (high confidence). Impacts on \r\nbiological communities and animal species are also increasingly being \r\nreported, with species of lower elevations increasing in mountain \r\nregions, creating more homogeneous vegetation and increasing risks \r\nto mountain-top species (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.1; 2.4}"


id: e8da0bb4587187157347f8ad4af8f52e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 34152
content:
"Climate and cryosphere change have negatively impacted the \r\nwater cycle in mountains, including variable timing of glacier \r\nmelt and snowmelt stream discharge (high confidence). These \r\nchanges have variable impacts on water availability for people \r\nand economies, contributing to increasing tensions or conflicts \r\nover water resources, especially in seasonally dry regions \r\n(medium confidence). Mountains are an essential source of freshwater \r\nfor large and growing populations; the number of people largely or fully \r\ndependent on water from mountains has increased worldwide from \r\napproximately 0.6 billion in the 1960s to approximately 2 billion in the \r\npast decade, and globally two-thirds of irrigated agriculture depends on \r\nessential runoff contributions from mountains. {CCP5.2.2; Figure CCP5.2; \r\nSROCC Chapter 2; 4.2.2.3; 4.4.4.1}"


id: 7a20b404bd3ca7756c990cf47ff63d3b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Climate change is projected to lead to profound changes \r\nand irreversible losses in mountain regions with negative \r\nconsequences for ways of life and cultural identity (medium \r\nconfidence). Intangible losses and loss of cultural values will become \r\nincreasingly more widespread in mountain regions, mainly driven by a \r\ndecline in snow and ice and an increase in intangible harm to people \r\nfrom hazards (medium confidence). However, there is limited evidence\r\non the magnitude of the consequences. {CCP5.3.2.4; 16.5.2.1; \r\n16.5.2.3.7}"


id: 28645c31f5131e953be2f562d3b37986
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"further downstream (high confidence). As a result, the number of \r\ndisasters has increased; however, there is limited evidence that this is \r\ndue to changes in the underlying hazard processes, pointing mainly \r\nto increasing levels of exposure (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.6; \r\nCCP5.2.7; CCP5.3.2.1}."


id: a84828ff95db27c1b026e607f9edd70c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 24005
content:
"Adaptation responses to climate-driven impacts in mountain \r\nregions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, \r\ndepth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of \r\ndecision-making and the extent of financial and other resources \r\nto implement them (high confidence). Observed adaptation \r\nresponses in mountains are largely incremental and mainly focus on \r\nearly warning systems and the diversification of livelihood strategies \r\nin smallholder agriculture, pastoralism and tourism. However, there is \r\nlimited evidence of the feasibility and long-term effectiveness of these \r\nmeasures in addressing climate-related impacts and related losses and \r\ndamages, including in cities and settlements experiencing changing \r\ndemographics. {CCP5.2.4; CCP5.2.7.2}"


id: 217be72a3b44ca3c828a0468a5a6f0a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"The current pace, depth and scope of adaptation are insufficient \r\nto address future risks in mountain regions, particularly at higher \r\nwarming levels (high confidence). While the incremental nature of \r\nmost implemented adaptations will not be sufficient to reduce severe risk \r\nconsequences, options exist which offer practical and timely prospects to \r\naddress risks before limits to adaptation are reached or exceeded. Reducing \r\nclimate risks will depend on addressing the root causes of vulnerability, \r\nwhich include poverty, marginalisation and inequitable gender dynamics \r\n(high confidence). {CCP5.4.1, Figure  CCP5.7: CCP5.4.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DEEP in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; 17.3, \r\n17.6}"


id: 94bb925bd8bf4876b9845282bdc60515
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Increasing temperatures will continue to induce changes \r\nin mountain regions throughout the 21st century, with \r\nexpected negative consequences for mountain cryosphere, \r\nbiodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being (very \r\nhigh confidence). Many low-elevation and small glaciers around the \r\nworld will lose most of their total mass at a 1.5degC global warming \r\nlevel (GWL) (high confidence). A large majority of endemic mountain \r\nspecies will be at risk of extinction; regions heavily relying on glacier \r\nmelt and snowmelt for irrigation will face erratic water supply and \r\nincreased food insecurity, whereas agriculture in some regions might \r\nsee positive changes. Damages and losses from water-related hazards \r\nsuch as floods and landslides are projected to increase considerably \r\nbetween 1.5degC and 3degC GWL. {CCP5.3.1}"


id: 4b2bc4e3fd65b64aa49a35e6c70661d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Adaptation decision-making processes that engage with and \r\nincorporate people's concerns and values and address multiple \r\nrisks are more robust than those with a narrow focus on \r\nsingle risks (medium confidence). Risk management strategies \r\nthat better integrate the adaptation needs of all affected sectors, \r\naccount for different risk perceptions and build on multiple and \r\ndiverse knowledge systems, including Indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge, are important enabling conditions to reduce risk severity \r\n(medium confidence). {CCP5.2.6, CCP5.4.2; 17.3; 17.4; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox PROGRESS in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17}"


id: bc64099dc49082e07bbddd3614f80645
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27220
content:
"Projected changes in hazards, such as floods and landslides, \r\nas well as changes in the water cycle, will lead to severe risk \r\nconsequences for people, infrastructure and the economy in \r\nmany mountain regions (high confidence). These risks will be more \r\npervasive and increase more rapidly in south and central Asia and \r\nnorthwestern South America. However, nearly all mountain regions \r\nwill face at least moderate and some regions even high risks at around \r\n2degC GWL (medium confidence). {CCP5.3.2.1, CCP5.3.2.2}"


id: c2bcf4855239e0fb837c6a461d0edbc9
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 28222
content:
"Regional cooperation and transboundary governance in \r\nmountain regions, supported by multi-scale knowledge \r\nnetworks and monitoring programmes, enable long-term \r\nadaptation actions where risks transcend boundaries and \r\njurisdictions (medium confidence). Collectively, they show potential \r\nto form an important component of the adaptation solution space in \r\nmountains. There are increasing calls for more ambitious climate action \r\nin mountains, providing impetus for stronger cooperation within and \r\nacross mountain regions and downstream areas (medium confidence). \r\n{CCP5.4.2; CCP5.4.3}"


id: a7d02eb0c780e5504908ff62913f00f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 23914
content:
"There is an increasing risk of local and global species extinctions \r\nwhere species are not able to move to higher elevations \r\nor other cooler locations (high confidence), with risks from \r\nextreme events such as wildfire potentially exacerbating those \r\nrisks (medium confidence). The topographic variation in mountains, \r\nsuch as elevation or aspect, may mean that some species will be \r\nable to survive in cooler microclimates. Mountain regions may act as \r\nrefugia for some species from lower elevations if they can move into \r\nthem. This may enable some species to persist in a region, though it \r\nmay pose a threat to cold-adapted species, including endemics, which \r\nmay be outcompeted (high confidence); invasive non-native species \r\nmay become an increasing problem in some places. {CCP5.3.2.3, \r\nBox CCP5.1; CCP1.2.2.1; 2.6.6; 16.6.3.1}"


id: d2e56c235625ae75b9c8a4ae008a8817
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 30700
content:
"With warming above 1.5degC, the need for adaptation to address \r\nkey risks in mountains becomes increasingly urgent (high \r\nconfidence). Pathways and system transitions that strengthen \r\nclimate-resilient sustainable mountain development are starting to \r\nreceive attention, but current levels of resourcing are substantially \r\ninsufficient to support timely action. {CCP5.4.2; CCP5.4.3; CCP5.5; \r\n18.1; 18.2}"


id: 681d48dcb6f042bb4340949a4ec605f7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 13966
content:
"supporting evidence found in the literature, a detection and attribution \r\nassessment (SMCCP5.2) and a reanalysis of the mountain literature \r\ncollected and synthesised in the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative \r\n(GAMI) (SMCCP5.3). Section 5.3 presents an assessment of future key \r\nrisks in mountains drawing from the regional and sectorial chapters and \r\na key risks assessment carried out for this CCP (SMCCP5.4). Section 5.4 \r\nexplores the solution space for future adaptation opportunities and \r\nconstraints as well as climate resilient development in mountains. This \r\nCCP concludes with key assessment limitations and knowledge gaps \r\nand prospects for addressing these gaps in Section 5.5."


id: ad4f495cc8eb55e557150e90bd8c127f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 24808
content:
"Mountains are an extensive and significant typological region\r\n(Section  1.3.3 and Annex II: Glossary) in the context of climate \r\nchange and sustainable development, with large populations directly \r\nor indirectly depending on them. Further, mountains are areas of \r\nhigh biological and cultural diversity that provide vital goods and \r\nservices--such as water, food, energy, minerals, medicinal plants, \r\ntourism and recreation and aesthetic and spiritual values--to people \r\nliving in and around these mountain regions and in downstream \r\nareas. Mountain regions are hotspots of climate-related losses in, for \r\nexample, ecosystems, landscapes, culture and habitability, and while \r\nmountain people are adaptive, resourceful and independent, they live \r\nin highly fragile environments and in some regions under challenging \r\nsocioeconomic circumstances that increase their vulnerability to \r\nclimate change (Alfthan et al., 2018)."


id: 232b541d67d6ae82157fb184ba325574
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 2979
content:
"Chapter 2, 'High Mountain Areas', (Hock et  al., 2019) of the IPCC's \r\nSROCC, presented an assessment of observed changes in the high \r\nmountain cryosphere, their impacts in situ and further downstream and \r\nthe state of adaptation responses to these impacts. Before SROCC, the \r\nlast time climate change in mountain regions had been systematically \r\nassessed in IPCC reports was in Chapter 5 of the Second Assessment \r\nReport (SAR) (Beniston et al., 1996). Projections made at the time for \r\nclimate-related changes in mountain regions were expected towards \r\nthe middle and the second half of the 21st century, rather than as \r\nearly as recent decades (Haeberli and Beniston, 2021), underscoring \r\nthe striking pace of change already observed in mountain regions."


id: 20ed8e198669f184bbac7c89fd0bc55d
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 2611
content:
"Whereas SROCC focused on impacts from a changing climate on the \r\nhigh mountain cryosphere, this CCP on mountains synthesises key \r\nrelevant content from across the AR6 WGII report with a broader \r\nscope on the impacts of and adaptation to climate change in mountain \r\nregions as defined for this assessment (Figure CCP5.1, SMCCP5.1). It \r\nprovides a wider assessment of the solution space and consequences \r\nfor sustainable development due to climate change in mountain \r\nregions and downstream areas."


id: 28c17b8dd74fb502b756395bd1ed8b37
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 3842
content:
"To define the geographical scope of the assessment in this CCP and \r\nto quantify the human population residing within these regions, the \r\nmountain characterisation given by Kapos et al. (2000) (Figure CCP5.1a \r\nand SMCCP5.1), minus Antarctica, Svalbard and Greenland (which fall \r\nunder the assessment scope of CCP6 Polar Regions), was employed. \r\nThis characterisation is consistent with the mountain region extents \r\nused in the AR6 WGI report (see AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)) \r\nand yields a global mountainous area of 31.74  million km2\r\n, which \r\ncorresponds to approximately 23.5% of the global land surface. In \r\n2015, a total of 1.28  billion people resided in mountain regions as \r\ndelineated for this CCP (SMCCP5.1)."


id: eb08a0a0bb7fc5bd7bb3b4dc688eacfd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 34482
content:
"There are interactions with land use, for example a decrease in forest cover can \r\nexacerbate the effects of rising temperatures (Guo et al., 2018). In contrast, \r\nBhatta et  al. (2018) showed a downward shift of species assemblages in \r\nLangtang National Park, Nepal, most likely related to interactions with land \r\nuse, especially reduced grazing. Where glaciers retreat, new areas become \r\navailable for pioneer species to colonise and new communities to form (Cuesta \r\net al., 2019; Hock et al., 2019; Muhlfeld et al., 2020). The risk of extreme events \r\nsuch as wildfire, drought, floods and landslips is increasing in a wide range of \r\nplaces as a result of climate change, and the evidence of the disturbance they \r\ncause to ecosystems has grown in recent decades (Section 2.3.1, Box CCP5.1). \r\nThe impacts of such extreme events may be greater than those of incremental \r\nchanges."


id: 2ba2380aeb3acd6720c33b172093c3db
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"The scope of the assessment presented in this CCP covers observed \r\nand projected climate change impacts in mountains, present, emerging \r\nand future key risks and observed adaptation responses, leading to \r\nan exploration of the adaptation solution space and climate resilient \r\ndevelopment (pathways) in mountains. Section 5.2 presents observed \r\nimpacts and adaptation responses by synthesising information on \r\nmountains in the sectoral and regional chapters of WGII AR6, additional "


id: 7bff6648b4a936c53303cd83b594aa98
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 17112
content:
"For species at lower elevations, mountains may represent refugia to which \r\nspecies can retreat. In this respect, Elsen et  al. (2018) highlighted the \r\nimportance of protecting areas along elevational gradients. This applies "


id: 5e3590b974bd41a1e74346756a6c5bbe
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Figure CCP5.1 |  Delineation of mountain regions in CCP Mountains, population numbers and densities in 2015 and their projections to 2100.\r\n(a) Population in mountain regions in 2015 aggregated per IPCC WGII Continental Regions, considering population densities, mountain areas and total population in mountain \r\nregions. "


id: a4aa7f2c54cf07aed0de493054e0a7a2
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"(b) Population projections in mountain regions by 2100 for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. "


id: 7bb3293d0494fc2be064410c980ae5cd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 17064
content:
"(c) Projected changes in population in mountain regions from 2015 to 2100 across five different SSP scenarios, per IPCC WGII Continental Region (SMCCP5.1 and Tables \r\nSMCCP5.1-5.4)."


id: 86433a4e36d12e83bfb3c5d80735fb0b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 18666
content:
"grass-shrub vegetation. In addition, land use and management exert an \r\ninfluence in many mountains around the world. Suwal et al. (2016) found \r\nthat elevational shifts in Himalayan silver fir in Nepal were larger when \r\nareas were protected from management. Similarly, Lutz et al. (2014) found \r\nfaster treeline shifts in the Peruvian Andes in protected areas than that \r\nin other areas, where cattle grazing and fires are more frequent. Treeline \r\necotones can also change independently of climate change if land use \r\nchanges (Vitali et al., 2019; Korner, 2020)."


id: 494d473306f57ee6baff8b06869583ee
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"to freshwater and terrestrial habitats with mountain streams acting as \r\npotential refugia (Isaak et al., 2016). In contrast, species restricted to the \r\nhighest elevations are increasingly at risk, including from competition with \r\ncolonising species (Britton et al., 2016; Winkler et al., 2016). Mountain\u0002top species are often separated from potential new habitats by large \r\nareas with unsuitable climates, and tropical mountain species often \r\nhave particularly narrow thermal tolerance and limited dispersal capacity \r\n(Polato et al., 2018)."


id: 4994299c8e04fb87a00a8b6a2627dd1e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 8965
content:
"Changes in mountain biodiversity and ecosystems have a wide \r\nrange of impacts on ecosystem services and effects on people. Some \r\nmountain ecosystems, particularly those with peatlands or forests, \r\nare important carbon stores, and climate change presents a risk to \r\nthese in some locations (Dwire et al., 2018) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.4.4.4 \r\nand 2.4.4.5). Palomo (2017) identified a wide range of threats to the \r\nlives, livelihoods and culture of mountain people as a consequence of \r\nthe impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, impacts are \r\nvery heterogeneous between locations, even within the same region \r\nand ecosystem type (e.g., mountain forests in Europe) (Mina et  al. \r\n(2017) and are not necessarily all negative. In addition to changes \r\nin services, other impacts on humans from a changing climate may \r\nbe mediated through species and ecosystems, for example changes \r\nin vector distribution shifting disease incidence into higher elevation \r\nareas (Escobar et al., 2016)."


id: 16bd3733a8b06474a9526b5a9ed89909
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Whether treeline shifts occur, and if so at what rate, depends on a range \r\nof factors, including land use (especially livestock grazing and fire), \r\nspecies interactions, wildfires and climatic stress factors (wind, frost, \r\ndrought, excess or shortage of snow) interacting with tree population \r\nprocesses (viable seed production, dispersal, seedling establishment, \r\nclonal propagation, growth, dieback, mortality). Differences in treeline \r\nshifts between north- and south-facing slopes have been demonstrated in \r\nthe Rocky Mountains (Elliott and Cowell, 2015). Grigorieva and Moiseev \r\n(2018) showed that significant factors limiting the number of seedlings \r\nand shoots are the snow depth, the topsoil temperature dependent \r\non it and the degree of competition from the parental tree stand and "


id: 96aabce95c3df9e6150b46607f9fab1e
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content:
"Water is a fundamental source of life in mountain regions; it is also \r\na central element and 'connector' in coupled natural-human systems \r\nand carries diverse meanings in different sociocultural contexts, \r\nincluding in indigenous ontologies (Boelens, 2014). In addition, water \r\nis a key component connecting upstream mountains and downstream \r\nlowlands (Salzmann et al., 2016; Di Baldassarre et al., 2018; Encalada \r\net al., 2019). Mountains are of paramount importance as water towers "


id: 1e0c2dfa2e1604703b5d03f9b303f44e
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content:
"for people living there and for around two billion people living in \r\nconnected lowland areas (Immerzeel et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 273d6ff7eb30c830ad28e9b6dc28759e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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"2020; Chen et al., 2021). Groundwater contributions to streamflow are \r\nhighly variable in mountains but can be substantial (up to 70 to 80% \r\nor more) during low-flow periods (Frisbee et al., 2011; Baraer et al., \r\n2015; Gordon et al., 2015; Kaser and Hunkeler, 2016; Somers et al., \r\n2019). Groundwater may provide some resilience to loss of melt water \r\nfrom glacier and snow decline, but in the longer term groundwater \r\nrecharge and contribution to streamflow are expected to decrease with \r\nongoing climate change (medium confidence) (Somers and McKenzie, \r\n2020). In some mountain regions (e.g., in the Himalaya), springs are a \r\nparticularly important source of water where large populations depend \r\non them. Observations indicate a reduction of water provision from \r\nsprings in recent years in the Himalaya, caused by multiple causal \r\nfactors (human interventions, climatic) (Section 10.4.4.)."


id: 1fe6201b4125e6d25bf7891102ade3c4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 2454
content:
"Figure CCP5.2 represents different levels of dependences of lowland \r\nareas on mountain water. At a global scale, 68% of irrigated agricultural \r\nareas in lowlands depend on essential runoff contributions from the \r\nmountains. The dependence of lowland populations on essential \r\nmountain runoff contributions increased by a factor of more than three \r\nfrom the 1960s to the 2000s, with increases of up to ten-fold in some \r\nmajor river catchments (Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 5259e11829bc6b384a06508f488c9c3f
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content:
"Water plays a fundamental role in climate change adaptation in \r\nmountains. A majority of documented adaptation efforts in mountain \r\nregions address water-related aspects (precipitation variability \r\nand extremes, including drought, water availability, floods) (high \r\nconfidence) (McDowell et  al., 2019, 2020). This is a robust finding \r\nacross different mountain regions and adaptation project and \r\nprogramme types and is in line with findings for cryosphere-change\u0002related adaptation, as reported in SROCC (Hock et al., 2019). Water \r\nalso plays a role in adaptation in other sectors, such as agriculture, \r\ndisaster management, and tourism and recreation (McDowell et  al., \r\n2019). There is high confidence that water conservation efforts, \r\nincluding restoration and protection of particularly vulnerable areas \r\n(e.g., wetlands) and increase in efficiency in water use, are robust, low\u0002regret adaptation measures."


id: c266dfc4021e331b37e0561e0d01fa73
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vector_id: 28170
content:
"Increasing temperatures and variability in precipitation and river flow \r\naffect energy availability and use in mountain regions. Mountain \r\npeoples, more so than national or global populations, are dependent \r\non local sources of energy, accentuating climate adaptation cost \r\nand barriers (medium evidence, high agreement), while also offering "


id: 618c0d64235787482adfab69e24eecc4
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content:
"The effects of climate and environmental changes in upstream areas on \r\ndownstream water quantity and quality, including nutrient, pollutant, \r\nheavy metals and sediment flux, have been assessed in only a limited \r\nnumber of catchments (Rakhmatullaev et al., 2009; Dong et al., 2015; \r\nMilner et al., 2017; Ilyashuk et al., 2018; Lane et al., 2019; Li et al., "


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"Mountain ecosystems have long been known to be highly sensitive to the direct impacts of climatic warming and drying (Beniston et al., \r\n1994; Nogues-Bravo, 2009; Gottfried et al., 2012; Guisan et al., 2019). Furthermore, wildfires in these ecosystems, as in many others \r\n(Sections 2.4.4.2 and 2.5.3.2), are also expected to increase (Abatzoglou et al., 2019). This is because the occurrence and severity of fire \r\nare governed by four fundamental processes that are intricately linked to climate: 1) fuel biomass growth, 2) fuel moisture and type, 3) \r\nignition source and 4) favourable weather conditions for fire spread (Bradstock, 2010)."


id: 88ba1212975cc17a6408f9275d3b00d2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"In temperate and tropical mountain ecosystems, increases in fire activity are potentially linked to changing climate on most continents, \r\nincluding Europe (Dupire et al., 2017), North America (Westerling, 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020; Burke et al., 2021), South America (Roman\u0002Cuesta et al., 2014), Africa (Hemp, 2005), Asia (Tian et al., 2014) and Australia (Bradstock et al., 2014; Abram et al., 2021). In these \r\necosystems, fire frequency, severity and extent (i.e., the fire regime) are increasing because of climate-induced impacts on fuel moisture \r\n(Gergel et al., 2017; Littell et al., 2018), vegetation composition (i.e., fuel types) (Camac et al., 2017; Prichard et al., 2017; Zylstra, 2018), \r\nfire-conducive weather patterns and the length of fire seasons (Westerling, 2016; Fill et al., 2019; Di Virgilio et al., 2020)."


id: 4c8a11f0698654b4a5a0711a88498bbf
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Fire in mountain ecosystems alters many ecological processes and ecosystem services across all elevational zones, from foothill montane \r\nforests to high-elevation alpine (treeless) zones (Turner et al., 2003; Williams et al., 2008; Oliveras et al., 2014, 2018; Rocca et al., 2014). \r\nHowever, the magnitude of short-term and long-term fire impacts depends on the degree of novelty of future fire regimes and the \r\ncapacity of species to adapt to change (Camac et al., 2017, 2021; Archibald et al., 2018)."


id: a4beb09ba4d19d2458b2a6c8c5f7b9b5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 23492
content:
"Taken together, this evidence suggests that a significant risk exists of wildfire exacerbating other impacts of climate change on already \r\nvulnerable ecosystems in many mountain regions (medium confidence)."


id: fadff4ad567e4966b443fe798f211c02
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 36991
content:
"Figure CCP5.2 |  Dependence of land surface areas and population on mountain water resources, 1961-2050. Results are shown as decadal averages for lowland \r\npopulations in each category of dependence on mountain water from no surplus and negligible to essential; "


id: 7fbe1cdb473bfd1a7a0f597541922160
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 17639
content:
"(b) map of lowland populations and their differentiated dependence on mountain water resources, both for the scenario combination SSP2-RCP6.0 and for the time period \r\n2041-2050; "


id: c5e2b3a30ec2e97f35f51ba7496ac35b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 28709
content:
"(c) number of lowland populations and their differentiated dependence on mountain water resources from 1960s to 2040s for three different scenario combinations (based on \r\nViviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 79238aef387606f645a3c2a3a1446922
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"opportunities for mountain-specific solutions (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). In mountain regions, inadequate infrastructure (Tiwari \r\net al., 2018), remoteness and reliance on traditional forms of energy \r\nthat may be difficult to diversify (Dhakal et al., 2019) exacerbate the \r\nimpacts of climate change on energy use and demand."


id: baf25d372239d11fb4cc2bfeacae156e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"et al., 2017; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Chitale et al., 2018; Pretzsch \r\net al., 2018; Barberan et al., 2019; Sultan et al., 2019; Huang and Hao, \r\n2020; Godde et al., 2021), and ecosystem services (Gret-Regamey and \r\nWeibel, 2020) across many different mountainous regions, for example in \r\nAfrica (Bonde et al., 2019; Musakwa et al., 2020), Asia (Guo et al., 2018; \r\nSunderland and Vasquez, 2020), Europe (Nair, 2019), North America \r\n(Hupp et  al., 2015; Prevey et  al., 2020) and South America (Herman\u0002Mercer et al., 2020) (Sections 5.4, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.2, 5.7, 5.11.1.1)."


id: b407821b25c841143e5f8cbfe5c3eb8b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 25839
content:
"A review of the renewable energy transition in the context of \r\nadaptation across global mountain regions, including hydropower, \r\nwind, solar and biomass, shows that observed climate change impacts \r\non these energy sources include altered seasonality, timing as related \r\nto snow and glacial melt runoff (30.9% of analysed cases), variable \r\nor declining precipitation and runoff (26.4%), increased flooding \r\n(15.5%), altered wind patterns (8.2%) and other/unspecified effects \r\n(19.1%) (Scott et al., 2019). The combined effects of climate change, \r\nhydropower development and further anthropogenic effects in \r\nupstream mountain basins have increased and are expected to further \r\nnegatively affect several aspects of ecosystem functioning and water \r\nsecurity (e.g., negative effects on river geometry, water chemistry, \r\nsediment transport, fish composition and migration) (high confidence) \r\n(Anderson et al., 2018; Encalada et al., 2019; Lepcha et al., 2021)."


id: 3aa04ef6db4a57d30d07c7fc598eba64
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 6592
content:
"Ecosystem products are vital to support the livelihoods and \r\neconomic prospects for communities living in and around mountains \r\n(Figure CCP5.3). For instance, collection and trade of caterpillar fungus \r\ncontributed to 53.3-64.5% annual household cash income in Nepal \r\n(Shrestha and Bawa, 2014; Shrestha et al., 2019); 40-80% in Bhutan \r\n(Thapa et al., 2018) and 60-78% in Uttarakhand, India (Laha et al., 2018; \r\nYadav et al., 2019) (Section 5.7.1). Livelihood support from ecosystem \r\nproducts in southern Malawi (Pullanikkatil et al., 2020), southwestern \r\nEthiopian mountains (Nischalke et  al., 2017), Southern China (Min \r\net al., 2017), Himalayan mountains (Nepal et al., 2018) and South Africa \r\n(Ngwenya et al., 2019) has been reported. Additionally, the sacredness \r\nof mountains in different religions and cultures is widely acknowledged \r\n(Ceruti, 2019; Benedetti et al., 2021)."


id: 8021cfc6f026c776e6f28720b745c90
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Overall, synergies between adaptation to climate change and renewable \r\nenergy transition can be successfully generated where benefit-sharing \r\nimproves local involvement and support, adaptive capacity is enhanced, \r\nlocal health and livelihoods supported, Sustainable Development Goals \r\n(SDGs) met, environmental justice considered and sustainable mountain \r\ndevelopment pursued (high agreement, medium evidence)."


id: a11621a4757dd23e4c0399d685254943
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 22892
content:
"There is high confidence that climate change is largely negatively \r\nimpacting food, fibre and other ecosystem products, including agriculture \r\n(Porter et al., 2014; Ingxay et al., 2015; Upgupta et al., 2015; Chirwa "


id: dbeaff7521c1e717968282f29d8bc27a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 32115
content:
"Poverty\r\nFood, nutrition and health insecurity\r\nOutmigration \r\nIncrease in area of fallow land\r\n[CCB-MIGRATE]\r\n[CCP5.2.3, CCP5.2.5]"


id: fa4269214cb43320ffb4c6ada1e0eed0
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 36892
content:
"Decreasing regeneration potential \r\nThreatening native and endemic species\r\n[CCP-BOX 5.1, CCP5.2.1, CCP5.2.3] "


id: f4f3b2df6ea0ee689f9aed1a87398ffd
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36049
content:
" Impact of climate change on mountain social-ecological systems, including ecosystem services and products, livelihoods of mountain \r\nmples of adaptation options to address direct and indirect impacts."


id: 63352cb7e1972a42e147b872593ce7f3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 13174
content:
"factors have been observed to affect the distribution of selected \r\nmedicinal plant species in northern Thailand (Tangjitman et al., 2015), \r\nas well as in Egypt, sub-Saharan Africa, Spain, Central Himalaya, China \r\nand Nepal, with some species at risk of extinction (Munt et al., 2016; \r\nYan et al., 2017; Brunette et al., 2018; Chitale et al., 2018; Zhao et al., \r\n2018; Applequist et al., 2020). Negative climate-related impacts on the \r\ndistribution range of 41 medicinal plant species have been predicted \r\nfor Spanish and Asian mountains (Munt et al., 2016) (Section 5.7.3.3), \r\nas has a decreasing size of fruits of Myrica esculenta in the Himalaya \r\n(Shah and Tewari, 2016)."


id: bbdeecc9d5e7f160fdb0c102108a5bcb
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 27119
content:
"People living in and around mountain regions strongly depend for \r\ntheir livelihoods, health and well-being on the ecosystem functions, \r\nservices and resources available in these areas. Overall, subsistence \r\nagriculture and livestock remain key sources of livelihood in many \r\nmountain regions (FAO, 2019), with non-agricultural income sources \r\nsuch as remittances, small businesses, medicinal plants, wage labour \r\nand tourism also contributing to these economies (Montanari and \r\nKoutsoyiannis, 2014; Palomo, 2017; Minta et  al., 2018). This section \r\nprovides an illustrative overview of key reported observed impacts of \r\nclimate change on mountain communities and adaptation responses \r\n(Table CCP5.1), as well as impacts on livelihood activities and economic \r\nsectors such as agriculture and pastoralism and tourism and recreation \r\n(Table CCP5.2), reported since AR5."


id: e0031cf25019f5409b6028f75129eb1b
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 32737
content:
"Other sections in this CCP provide detailed assessments that \r\nsynthesise impacts associated with the detection of climate change \r\nand the attribution of those impacts to anthropogenic climate change \r\n(CCP5.2.7), projected impacts and key risks (CCP5.3) and adaptation \r\nresponses to reduce those key risks (CCP5.4.1)."


id: e3edf7c560f44ec1217ce617a09d4859
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 33337
content:
"Climate- and weather-related disasters in mountain regions have \r\nincreased over the last three decades (medium confidence). Disaster \r\nfrequency shows increasing trends in the HKH, the Andes and \r\nmountain regions in Africa, whereas no clear trends are observed for \r\nthe European Alps and Central Asia (medium confidence) (Froude and \r\nPetley, 2018; Staubli et al., 2018)."


id: 31eccd4ab4a82ec1584e1af6b361a823
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 5269
content:
"Table CCP5.1 |  Overview of key observed impacts and adaptation on mountain communities--livelihoods and poverty; migration, habitability and displacement; health and \r\nwell-being."


id: 119b75bf1dd6811c7d4d63b352816c25
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 261
content:
"Table CCP5.2 |  Overview of key observed impacts and adaptation on select livelihood activities and economic sectors--mountain agriculture and pastoralism, and tourism and \r\nrecreation."


id: cc84e6990f3b50f0c96a20a78595fcd6
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 29715
content:
"The characteristics of natural hazards in mountain areas have been \r\nwidely explored, and evidence suggests that conditions favouring \r\ncascading impacts are a common feature (high confidence) \r\n(Section 8.2.1.1) (Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015; Huggel et al., 2019; \r\nKirschbaum et al., 2019; Schauwecker et al., 2019; Terzi et al., 2019; \r\nMotschmann et  al., 2020a; Shugar et  al., 2021). Compound and \r\ncascading impacts have affected people, ecosystems and infrastructure \r\nand generate significant spillovers across numerous sectors, resulting \r\nin destructive impacts (Nones and Pescaroli, 2016; Kirschbaum et al., \r\n2019; Schauwecker et al., 2019)."


id: a5cabcd6ab892ec960f2362700d17a5a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 23648
content:
"2019b). Previous experience and local social contexts of exposure to \r\nclimate-related disasters affect people's perceptions and influence the \r\npatterns associated with disaster risk management and associated \r\ncoping strategies (high confidence) (SROCC Chapter 2 (Hock et  al., \r\n2019)), (Kaul and Thornton, 2014; Shijin and Dahe, 2015; Landeros\u0002Mugica et al., 2016; Wirz et al., 2016; Carey et al., 2017; Adler et al., \r\n2019)."


id: c83c129acd1efb5e7b916cddcb61a371
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 29080
content:
"Important synergies exist between disaster risk reduction, climate \r\nchange adaptation and sustainable development in mountain regions \r\n(medium confidence) (Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015), where the \r\nmultiple and diverse perceptions of risk and risk tolerance for natural \r\nhazards are relevant considerations (Schneiderbauer et  al., 2021). \r\nGlobal agreements for integrated disaster risk management and \r\nclimate change adaptation (Alcantara-Ayala et al., 2017), including the \r\nSendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (UNISDR, \r\n2015), the SDGs (UN, 2015), the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) and \r\nthe New Urban Agenda-Habitat III (UN, 2016), create opportunities \r\nfor synergies to address disaster risks (see also Section 6.3). Although \r\nthese agreements are well established in international agendas, there \r\nis limited evidence of their implementation to address disaster risk \r\nreduction and adaptation in mountains (Alcantara-Ayala et al., 2017)."


id: 692553a0487d45df605e60ca2f04f2e2
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Evidence from different mountain regions shows that adaptation and \r\nrisk reduction efforts are less successful if they focus on hazards or \r\nrisks without considering diverse risk and value perceptions of the \r\naffected people (medium confidence) (French et al., 2015; Allen et al., \r\n2018; Hovelsrud et  al., 2018; Kadetz and Mock, 2018; Klein et  al., "


id: b6507bc15dfc7697016c21d6752906be
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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vector_id: 26208
content:
"The assessment of observed impacts identified a large number of \r\nimpacts across all major mountain regions of the world and for a large \r\nvariety of systems, based on more than 300 references (SMCCP5.2). "


id: a71b32c32ce8a1dd3048c70e4e1b8525
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"The literature was assessed and the results classified on a per-region \r\nand per-system basis. Confidence statements on detection and \r\nattribution are based on expert judgement following IPCC guidelines \r\n(Section  1.3.4), building on evidence from multiple sources in the \r\nliterature (Mach et al., 2017) (SMCCP5.2). Figure CCP5.4 provides an \r\noverview of the assessment results."


id: 3e23455b04c90bd5a3fc629685c87e99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Of all reported adaptations, 91% involve individuals or households, \r\nfrequently engaged in smallholder agriculture and/or pastoralism; local \r\ngovernments are also often involved (31%), as are sub-national or local \r\ncivil society actors (29%), while private-sector involvement remains \r\nscarce (below 10%). Food, fibre and other ecosystem products (76%) \r\nand poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development (55%) are by far \r\nthe most often reported adaptations in mountains, followed by water \r\nand sanitation (28%) and health, well-being and communities (26%) \r\n(McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2)."


id: 15e924880875bda35069d786e406de76
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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content:
"Adaptation measures most commonly found include farming\u0002related changes (e.g., resilient or drought-tolerant crop varieties, \r\nirrigation techniques, crop storage and livestock insurance schemes), \r\ninfrastructure development, Indigenous knowledge, community\u0002based capacity-building and ecosystem-based adaptation (high \r\nconfidence) (McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nature-based \r\nsolutions (NbS) are an adaptation component in the nationally \r\ndetermined contributions (NDCs) of many mountain countries around \r\nthe world (UNEP, 2021). Furthermore, Indigenous knowledge and \r\nlocal knowledge are often reported as informing adaptation efforts, \r\nand Indigenous Peoples, marginalised people and gender issues are \r\nrecognised in several national adaptation strategies, but autonomous \r\nresponses are often insufficiently understood (Mishra et al., 2019)."


id: 79cfdb04be28c05e79ae9f11e1baa2ca
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"The GAMI-based reanalysis for mountains indicates that food security \r\n(75%), poverty (47%), consumption and production (36%), terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystem services (19%) and clean water and sanitation \r\n(18%) are important aspects of vulnerability that adaptations address, \r\nwith an emphasis on responses to climate-related shocks and stressors \r\n(McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.2). The reanalysis also shows that \r\nmore than 80% of adaptations in mountains are behavioural/cultural \r\nin nature, and more than 50% are ecosystem-based or technological \r\nor infrastructural."


id: 78a4d04f6514a9626a9453113684db3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 16545
content:
"Local knowledge plays an important role in documenting impacts of \r\nclimate change in mountain regions. Since IPCC AR5, the evidence \r\nfor meaningful climate change impacts being reported using local \r\nknowledge sources has increased substantially (high confidence). \r\nSimilarly, important regional gaps present in the IPCC AR5 are \r\naddressed here (e.g., Africa), resulting in a much more comprehensive \r\nand regionally balanced assessment and perspective."


id: 3f4158a5c928623e1d808f2425a8d4b3
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"About a third of the assessed adaptation activities are in the planning \r\nand early implementation stage, and around a fifth are in a stage of \r\nadvanced implementation (McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). \r\nSeveral lines of evidence converge, indicating that most observed \r\nadaptations in mountains are incremental in nature and not \r\ntransformative (high confidence) (Mishra et al., 2019; McDowell et al., \r\n2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nevertheless, some adaptation measures such \r\nas NbS were found to have important transformative potential in \r\nmountains if different knowledge types are combined, and community \r\nengagement and ecosystem management processes are in place \r\n(Palomo et al., 2021)."


id: a1aa2dffa9d35fa932cb16652479da7f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:20
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 22994
content:
"Furthermore, the science of attributing negative impacts of climate \r\nchange to anthropogenic emissions or even individual polluters is \r\nbecoming increasingly important for climate litigation (Marjanac et al., \r\n2017; McCormick et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2017; Setzer and Vanhala, \r\n2019), and there is emerging evidence that mountains are becoming \r\nsites of litigation cases, with cases, for instance, in Peru, Colombia \r\nand India (UNEP, 2017). Recent studies put litigation cases such as \r\nthe Lliuya vs RWE (the German multi-national energy company) \r\ncase, on the risk of glacier lake floods in Peru, in a broader context of \r\ndifferentiated responsibilities and justice (Huggel et al., 2020b)."


id: 1516f4b21bd9d891e4b116425e993e8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Overall, and consistent with the findings in SROCC, the systematic \r\nmonitoring and evaluation processes that have been implemented \r\nto track adaptation progress remain limited, and there is limited \r\nevidence and prevailing uncertainties on the extent to which observed \r\nadaptation efforts reduce risks (Hock et  al., 2019; McDowell et  al., \r\n2021b; UNEP, 2021) (SMCCP5.3.2)."


id: ca6e5caa352c518d092d93a26efd05c0
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 29408
content:
"Extending from recent assessments of observed adaptation in high \r\nmountain areas (Hock et al., 2019; McDowell et al., 2019) new evidence \r\nfor the geographically larger space for mountains assessed in this CCP \r\nis available from a mountain-specific reanalysis of the GAMI data \r\nset, which contains 423  articles reporting adaptation in mountains \r\n(Berrang-Ford et  al., 2021; McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3), \r\nsome of which also include those reported in Section CCP5.2. In \r\nthese articles, adaptation measures in mountains are reported from \r\nall regions worldwide, with a preponderance from Asia and Africa. "


id: b5d365839747a8fbd0c6fed65c6e0dee
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vector_id: 26136
content:
"Limits to adaptation are found in a majority (>80%) of the assessed \r\nadaptation studies; around half of the studies reported soft limits, and \r\nless than a third identified both hard and soft limits to adaptation \r\n(high confidence) (McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Soft limits "


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"a lack of decision-making power among vulnerable groups, along \r\nwith inadequate funding for government-implemented adaptation \r\nprogrammes, are reported to limit adaptation (Mishra et  al., 2019; \r\nMcDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Hard limits imply that further \r\nadaptation action is unfeasible, ineffective or unacceptable, resulting \r\nin inevitable losses and damages in mountain areas (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Huggel et al., 2019)."


id: fa5dd409478148ac3ea39281451828ab
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"are frequently related to governance, economics and social/cultural \r\nconstraints and can be overcome in principle through targeted efforts \r\nto address social conditions that impede adaptation planning and \r\naction. Hard limits are more frequently described as biophysical, \r\nsuch as precipitous declines in water supply. Examples of adaptation \r\nlimits include lack of access to credit and markets, fixed livelihoods, \r\ninsufficient awareness of climate risk, poor access to technology, the \r\nerosion of existing skills and knowledge, social inequities, lack of \r\ntrust and social cohesion, inequitable gender norms and perceptions \r\nof conflict or scarcity. Furthermore, land tenure insecurity, poor \r\nintegration of adaptation programmes across governing scales and "


id: e1c86e0aef940508b9d07f585f12f7a8
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 33019
content:
"Overall, adaptation in mountain regions is taking place in various \r\nways, in different sectors, scales, levels, quality, and effectiveness \r\n(high confidence). Most responses are incremental, with asymmetries "


id: e7174a186b50ea5a6c9297d26867aa3e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"et al., 2018), secondary metabolites (Chang et al., 2016; Kumar et al., \r\n2020) and pharmacological properties of medicinal plants (Gairola \r\net al., 2010; Das et al., 2016)."


id: b810c75f3b9cdb9c743220adfa17cf7c
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"of power among state, institutions and individuals, costs or capital \r\nrequirements of adaptation, lack of coordinated planning, resistance \r\nto institutional change, household risk aversion, and lack of access to \r\ninformation inhibiting more transformational responses (SMCCP5.3.2). \r\nAside from poverty reduction, there is limited evidence of adaptations \r\neffectively remediating the underlying social determinants of \r\nvulnerability (e.g., gender, ethnic identity)."


id: db85586ba837a92af00cf5c418889df4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Declines and extinctions have been projected in a range of montane \r\nplants and animal species, including rare endemic species and sub\u0002species due to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Li et al., 2017; Ashrafzadeh et al., 2019; Brunetti et al., 2019; Zhang \r\net al., 2019b; Manes et al., 2021). Up to 84% of endemic mountain \r\nspecies are found to be at risk of extinction (Manes et al., 2021). Using \r\na simple model, Helmer et al. (2019) predict a large-scale contraction in \r\nthe next 25 years of alpine ecosystems above tropical mountain cloud \r\nforest in the Andes due to tree invasion. Topographic complexity can \r\nsmoothen and delay the transition of montane forests in terms of size \r\nand composition for warming up to 3degC GWL (Albrich et al., 2020)."


id: 3851ffd4176c535a11fa171a87ce5d31
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 6236
content:
"Hydrological changes will determine how some ecosystems change, \r\nmore so than changes in temperature. For example, Dwire et al. (2018) \r\nfound that changes in riparian areas, wetlands and forests were likely \r\na result of climate change in the Blue Mountains in Oregon, USA, as a \r\nresult of altered snowpack, hydrologic regimes, drought and wildfire. In \r\nthe Bolivian Cordillera Real, wetland cover variations were associated \r\nwith increases in extreme precipitation events and glacier melting over \r\nthe 1984-2011 period but might be reversed with predicted future \r\ndecreases in both total precipitation and glacier run-off (Dangles et al., \r\n2017). About 30% of the wetland area in the Great Xing'an Mountains \r\nin northeastern China has been projected to disappear by 2050, with \r\nthis value doubling by 2100 under the CGCM3-B1 scenario (Liu et al., \r\n2011)."


id: 28009a8bdcc9a46aca45a3e354b80d99
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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"to national energy supplies, in particular in the High Mountain Asia \r\nregion (Farinotti et  al., 2019). However, water supply from glacier \r\nmelt will decrease once source glaciers pass peak discharge (Huss \r\nand Hock, 2018), and the areas with available sediment will grow as \r\nglaciers shrink, posing potential risks to downstream populations and \r\nassets (high confidence) (Lane et al., 2019)."


id: ddedbe77f6b1e946b0a7e741fe05134a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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"Key risks are derived from the detection and attribution assessment \r\n(CCP5.2.7) and from the projected impacts and risks (CCP5.3.1). \r\nThe assessment is informed by evidence in the regional and sectoral \r\nchapters and supports the key risk assessment in Chapter 16. Four key \r\nrisks (KR1 to KR4) have been identified in this CCP and are presented in \r\nSections CCP5.3.2.1-CCP5.3.2.4 (see SMCCP5.4 for methodology and \r\nreferences)."


id: c6bce21d716618b5318259eb0ac22ea7
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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"The amount of people and infrastructure at risk of landslides will \r\nincrease in regions where the frequency and intensity of rainfall events is \r\nprojected to rise (Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016; Haque et al., 2019). Extreme \r\nprecipitation in major mountain regions is projected to increase, leading \r\nto consequences such as floods and landslides (medium confidence). \r\nRain-on-snow events, which can accelerate all flood stages and result \r\nin widespread consequence for societies, are projected to increase \r\nbetween 2degC and 4degC GWL (but decrease afterwards) (SROCC Chapter \r\n2 (Hock et al., 2019), AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)). \r\nThere is high confidence that glacial retreat, slope instabilities and heavy \r\nprecipitation will affect landslides and flood activities, although for \r\nlandslides there are considerable uncertainties in the direction of change \r\n(Patton et al., 2019, AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021))."


id: 3e83c6e3ee109532b2cc9e6233663d50
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"KR2 encompasses the relative and absolute dependence on water \r\nresources for economic activities and livelihood sustainment in \r\nmountain regions and in lowlands (Table  SMCCP5.19). Particularly "


id: f341bfd7bba67298be3ff10aebcae869
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 35785
content:
"People and infrastructure in mountain regions at risks of landslides and/or floods\r\nfor 1.3-1.7degC, 2.0-2.5degC and 4degC Global Warming Levels"


id: 2a2d11e832c678363a4250d17811882
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 4061
content:
"pg yp\r\nand the new AR6 WGI reference region delineations which include most of the Southern Himalaya in TIB."


id: 88c3cc99c43b327e19b5fa949186c89a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Figure CCP5.5 |  People and infrastructure in mountain regions at risk of landslides and/or floods for various GWLs.\r\nPanel a) shows the level of risk assessed per AR6 WGI reference region (AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)). For some mountain regions, there is limited evidence for \r\nadequately assessing the level of risks against GWLs, so this is labelled 'not assessed'. "


id: 7fa27372aac3e060458e331d0d6a5249
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Panel b) shows the level of risk aggregated at the continent scale and the principal hazards for which evidence was available and assessed. Methodological details and traceability \r\nare provided in SMCCP5.4, Figure SMCCP5.1, Table SMCCP5.16 and SMCCP5.18."


id: ae8a76efb8f87fb2ed2d8f4a1dbf7018
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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"affected by changes in water resources will be regions with (seasonally) \r\nhigh dependence on snow and glacier melt, i.e., arid and semiarid \r\nzones in the Andes, Central Asia and the Upper Indus Basin (Huss et al., \r\n2017; Huss and Hock, 2018; Viviroli et al., 2020) (Section CCP5.3.1)."


id: f971e813fb309f1337044aa4a0e206d4
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Consequences that are considered severe refer to the magnitude (number \r\nof people and economic activities affected), timing (increase of water \r\nstress as early as mid-century in several regions) and likelihood (severe \r\nrisk consequences are more likely where high population density is \r\nprojected) (high confidence) (Figures CCP5.1 and CCP5.6, Section 4..5.7 \r\nand 4.7) (Fuhrer et al., 2014; Wijngaard et al., 2018; Biemans et al., 2019; \r\nImmerzeel et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020). Severe consequences are \r\nthat by mid-century more than half of agricultural regions equipped for \r\nirrigation are projected to be dependent on mountain runoff and could \r\ntherefore be unsustainably using blue water (e.g., water from river, \r\nlakes and aquifers) (Viviroli et al., 2020) or that the number of people "


id: 9ab8946c7d4aa676d036ad64049c9c70
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 21873
content:
"Risks to livelihoods and the economy from changing mountain water resources\r\nbetween 1.5degC and 2degC Global Warming Level in AR6 WGI reference regions"


id: 5b44435e62f7f644f0bc8479f5be3442
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 11864
content:
"discrepancies between studies referring to the Southern Himalaya as part of SAS,\r\nand the new AR6 WGI reference region delineations which include most of the Southern Himalaya in TIB."


id: f12b7c66b84eb8a9a140804a89fe759e
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 35446
content:
"Figure CCP5.6 |  Risk levels assessed per AR6 WGI reference region (AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)). The majority of studies assessed focus on impacts \r\nup to mid-century (2030-2060) and for RCP-2.6, RCP-4.5 and RCP-6.0, which was converted into the corresponding warming level range 1.5degC-2.0degC GWL (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox CLIMATE in Chapter 1). Methodological details are provided in Section SMCCP5.4, Figure SMCCP5.1, Table SMCCP5.17 and SMCCP5.19. Due to the limited evidence available \r\nto determine risks against high GWLs and the relatively high uncertainty associated with future irrigation trends for the second half of the century (e.g., Viviroli et al., 2020), \r\nassessment of risks associated with GWLs greater than 2.0degC GWL was not conducted."


id: c887ded5dcfd6a3884b3ef86e160706f
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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vector_id: 29113
content:
"Large-scale and transformative interventions can reduce the high-end \r\nimpacts of changing water resources and in particular the risks of \r\nwater scarcity (Section CCP5.4.1). These interventions have long lead \r\ntimes, are costly and may face institutional constraints (Section  4.7), \r\nresulting in adaptation shortfalls. Therefore, high-risk to very high-risk \r\nlevels cannot be excluded in regions where other key risk characteristics, \r\nsuch as magnitude, timing and likelihood, are assessed as high due to \r\npotential losses (e.g., in many Asian regions) (Figure CC5.6, SMCCP5.4 \r\nand Table SMCCP5.16)."


id: d16409703aad44d4a75c0036907203fa
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"to mortality at the lower range limit (observed for trees in the neotropics \r\n(Feeley et al., 2013; Duque et al., 2015) or if mountains are not high \r\nenough to allow species to move to higher elevations. Ramirez-Villegas \r\net al. (2014) modelled 11,012 species of birds and vascular plants in \r\nthe Andes and found large decreases by 2050 (SRES-A2 scenario); in \r\nthe absence of dispersal, 10% of species could become extinct. Even \r\nassuming unlimited dispersal, most of the Andean endemics would \r\nbecome severely threatened. Other modelling studies have also \r\nprojected declines in a range of communities and species, including \r\nrare endemics (Zomer et  al., 2014a; Rashid et  al., 2015; Bitencourt \r\net al., 2016; Li et al., 2017; Rehnus et al., 2018; Ashrafzadeh et al., 2019; \r\nZhang et al., 2019b; Cuesta et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020)."


id: e77746abb50b94bc5e40687f5ff1e45a
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Many treelines will continue to shift to higher elevations with \r\nincreasing temperatures (Chhetri and Cairns, 2018), although very \r\nfew are changing as fast as the climate (Liang et al., 2016; Hansson \r\net  al., 2021) and some are not moving or even shifting to lower \r\nelevations (CCP5.2.1). If treelines fail to shift uphill, this will pose a \r\nrisk for species of the upper-montane forest that experience range \r\ncontraction at their lower range limit but lack a suitable habitat to \r\nexpand into beyond their upper range limit (Rehm and Feeley, 2015). \r\nChanges in phenology can also pose risks to species and ecosystems \r\n(Chapter 2), including a potential desynchronisation of mutualistic \r\nrelationships like pollination and increased freezing damage due to \r\npremature emergence from winter dormancy. In European broadleaf \r\ntrees, for example, the upper elevational limits of different species \r\ninvolve a trade-off between maximising growing season length and "


id: 280f982a27fce74dab418f955edd2749
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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content:
"Risks to mountain ecosystems and the services they provide to people \r\nare varied in magnitude, timing, likelihood and potential to adapt \r\nand place specific. However, many mountain ecosystems are already \r\nshowing impacts of climate change (CCP5.3.1), reflecting the strong \r\ninfluence climate exerts in many situations and indicating that risks are \r\nsignificant and immediate and will likely increase in the near as well \r\nas long term. There is robust evidence (high agreement) of vegetation \r\nzones and individual species shifting to higher elevations (CCP5.2.1 \r\nand Section  2.4), and projections indicate that current trends will \r\ncontinue and accelerate at higher rates of warming (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Section 2.5)."


id: f8c29c66028106f34f18b17545b874d5
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36651
content:
"moderate, a low adaptation extent might be sufficient to constrain \r\nrisks (Figures CCP5.5 and 5.6, Section 16.3.2.4)."


id: f928e6951bec71555c2ab95265a5c1ed
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
vector_id: 36712
content:
"A wide range of mechanisms can cause changes within ecological \r\ncommunities, some of which are hard to predict, but an increasing \r\nnumber of studies illustrate some of the risks which are expected to \r\nbe most common. If treelines shift upwards, this will pose a risk for \r\nalpine species, which cannot compete with trees. This may lead to the \r\nextinction of alpine species on mountains where there is insufficient \r\nroom for the alpine zone to shift uphill. Shifts in species distributions, \r\nand in particular shifts in ecosystem types, can cause changes in \r\necosystem function, which may in turn have cascading impacts on \r\npeople, for example leading to increased exposure to diseases such \r\nas malaria at high elevation (Section 2.4.2.7.2) as vector distribution \r\nchanges and wider impacts on ecosystem services (Section 2.5.3) such \r\nas water supply, flood alleviation and food."


id: 47eea27f4c51c627df8994a896dbbb03
created_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
updated_at: 2023-03-16 14:01:21
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index: climate_gpt_only_giec
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content:
"EbA has been effective in mountain regions at reducing risks \r\nfrom floods (e.g., restoration of buffer zones and floodplains) and \r\nlandslides (e.g., protective forests) (Muccione and Daley, 2016; Klein \r\net al., 2019b; Lavorel et al., 2019). Ecosystem-based measures have \r\nbeen implemented for water management purposes to supply clean \r\nwater and improve water quality (Section  4.6.6). Furthermore, they \r\nprovide scope for conservation and improvement of habitats, e.g., \r\nforest ecosystems (Nagel et  al., 2017; Lamborn and Smith, 2019) \r\n(high agreement, medium evidence). However, repeated and recurrent \r\ndisturbances that increase recovery times can reduce the effectiveness \r\nof EbA (medium confidence) (Sebald et al., 2019; Scheidl et al., 2020)."


