I've seen three builds fail now witht he same error and this started happening on Nov 7 so it's likely we've introduced something here:

https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/failures?failures.failureClassification=all_failures&failures.failureMessage=Execution%20failed%20for%20task%20%27:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0%23follower%23oneThirdUpgradedTest%27.%0A%3E%20%60cluster%7B:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0-follower%7D%60%20failed%20to%20wait%20for%20cluster%20health%20yellow%20after%2040%20SECONDS%0A%20%20%20%20IO%20error%20while%20waiting%20cluster%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20503%20Service%20Unavailable&search.relativeStartTime=P28D&search.timeZoneId=America/Los_Angeles#

```
* What went wrong:
Execution failed for task ':x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0#follower#oneThirdUpgradedTest'.
> `cluster{:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0-follower}` failed to wait for cluster health yellow after 40 SECONDS
    IO error while waiting cluster
      503 Service Unavailable
```

It seems the follower cluster is having issues coming back up after upgrade.
server/src/test/java/org/elasticsearch/cluster/routing/allocation/allocator/DesiredBalanceReconcilerTests.java
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.RoutingChangesObserver;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.RoutingNode;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.RoutingTable;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRouting;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRoutingState;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.UnassignedInfo;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.AllocateUnassignedDecision;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.AllocationService;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.ExistingShardsAllocator;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.FailedShard;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.RoutingAllocation;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.ShardAllocationDecision;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.AllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.AllocationDeciders;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.Decision;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.FilterAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.NodeReplacementAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.NodeShutdownAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.ReplicaAfterPrimaryActiveAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.SameShardAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.ThrottlingAllocationDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.common.TriFunction;
import org.elasticsearch.common.UUIDs;
import org.elasticsearch.common.collect.ImmutableOpenMap;
import org.elasticsearch.common.settings.ClusterSettings;
import org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings;
import org.elasticsearch.gateway.GatewayAllocator;
import org.elasticsearch.index.shard.ShardId;
import org.elasticsearch.repositories.IndexId;
import org.elasticsearch.snapshots.InternalSnapshotsInfoService;