First time failure seen

**Build scan:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/3oovwax2vclsc/tests/:server:test/org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.allocator.DesiredBalanceComputerTests/testDesiredBalanceShouldConvergeInABigCluster

**Reproduction line:**
```
./gradlew ':server:test' --tests "org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.allocator.DesiredBalanceComputerTests.testDesiredBalanceShouldConvergeInABigCluster" -Dtests.seed=16C1AC92444C888 -Dtests.locale=de-AT -Dtests.timezone=US/Mountain -Druntime.java=20
```

**Applicable branches:**
8.8

**Reproduces locally?:**
Didn't try

**Failure history:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/tests?tests.container=org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.allocator.DesiredBalanceComputerTests&tests.test=testDesiredBalanceShouldConvergeInABigCluster

**Failure excerpt:**
```
java.lang.AssertionError: Balance should converge, but exited by the iteration limit
Expected: <-1560893584L>
     but: was <-1L>

  at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([16C1AC92444C888:D5C15DA7FFF4050C]:0)
  at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:18)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:956)
  at org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.allocator.DesiredBalanceComputerTests.testDesiredBalanceShouldConvergeInABigCluster(DesiredBalanceComputerTests.java:705)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.DirectMethodHandleAccessor.invoke(DirectMethodHandleAccessor.java:104)
  at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:578)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.invoke(RandomizedRunner.java:1758)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$8.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:946)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$9.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:982)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$10.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:996)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleSetupTeardownChained$1.evaluate(TestRuleSetupTeardownChained.java:48)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleThreadAndTestName$1.evaluate(TestRuleThreadAndTestName.java:45)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.forkTimeoutingTask(ThreadLeakControl.java:843)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$3.evaluate(ThreadLeakControl.java:490)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.runSingleTest(RandomizedRunner.java:955)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$5.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:840)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$6.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:891)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$7.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:902)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleStoreClassName$1.evaluate(TestRuleStoreClassName.java:38)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleAssertionsRequired$1.evaluate(TestRuleAssertionsRequired.java:53)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites.java:47)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.lambda$forkTimeoutingTask$0(ThreadLeakControl.java:850)
  at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:1623)

```
server/src/test/java/org/elasticsearch/cluster/routing/allocation/allocator/DesiredBalanceComputerTests.java
usedDiskSpace.put(nodeId, 0L);
        }
        var indices = scaledRandomIntBetween(1, 1000);
        var totalShards = 0;
        var shardSizes = new HashMap<String, Long>();
        var dataPath = new HashMap<NodeAndShard, String>();
        var metadataBuilder = Metadata.builder();
        var routingTableBuilder = RoutingTable.builder();
        for (int i = 0; i < indices; i++) {
            var indexName = "index-" + i;
            var shards = randomIntBetween(1, 10);
            var replicas = randomIntBetween(1, nodes - 1);
            totalShards += shards * (replicas + 1);
            var inSyncIds = randomList(shards * (replicas + 1), shards * (replicas + 1), () -> UUIDs.randomBase64UUID(random()));
            var shardSize = randomLongBetween(10_000_000L, 10_000_000_000L);
            var indexMetadataBuilder = IndexMetadata.builder(indexName).settings(indexSettings(Version.CURRENT, shards, replicas));
            if (randomBoolean()) {
                indexMetadataBuilder.shardSizeInBytesForecast(smallShardSizeDeviation(shardSize));
            }
            for (int shard = 0; shard < shards; shard++) {
                indexMetadataBuilder.putInSyncAllocationIds(
                    shard,
                    Set.copyOf(inSyncIds.subList(shard * (replicas + 1), (shard + 1) * (replicas + 1)))
                );
            }
            metadataBuilder.put(indexMetadataBuilder);
            var indexId = metadataBuilder.get(indexName).getIndex();
            var indexRoutingTableBuilder = IndexRoutingTable.builder(indexId);
            for (int shard = 0; shard < shards; shard++) {
                var remainingNodeIds = new ArrayList<>(nodeIds);