Reproduces with exact same assertion failure locally. Test failed 19 times in the last 7 days.

**Build scan:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/ymg3tiwmh52e6/tests/:server:internalClusterTest/org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRoutingRoleIT/testRefreshOfUnpromotableShards

**Reproduction line:**
```
./gradlew ':server:internalClusterTest' --tests "org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRoutingRoleIT.testRefreshOfUnpromotableShards" -Dtests.seed=995A25045951017C -Dtests.locale=en-AU -Dtests.timezone=Poland -Druntime.java=17 -Dtests.fips.enabled=true
```

**Applicable branches:**
main

**Reproduces locally?:**
Yes

**Failure history:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/tests?tests.container=org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRoutingRoleIT&tests.test=testRefreshOfUnpromotableShards

**Failure excerpt:**
```
java.lang.AssertionError: 
Expected: is <9>
     but: was <18>

  at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([995A25045951017C:627315331DA21D07]:0)
  at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:18)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:956)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:923)
  at org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRoutingRoleIT.testRefreshOfUnpromotableShards(ShardRoutingRoleIT.java:624)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:-2)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:77)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
  at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:568)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.invoke(RandomizedRunner.java:1758)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$8.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:946)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$9.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:982)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$10.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:996)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleSetupTeardownChained$1.evaluate(TestRuleSetupTeardownChained.java:48)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleThreadAndTestName$1.evaluate(TestRuleThreadAndTestName.java:45)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.forkTimeoutingTask(ThreadLeakControl.java:843)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$3.evaluate(ThreadLeakControl.java:490)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.runSingleTest(RandomizedRunner.java:955)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$5.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:840)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$6.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:891)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$7.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:902)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleStoreClassName$1.evaluate(TestRuleStoreClassName.java:38)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleAssertionsRequired$1.evaluate(TestRuleAssertionsRequired.java:53)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites.java:47)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.lambda$forkTimeoutingTask$0(ThreadLeakControl.java:850)
  at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:833)

```
server/src/internalClusterTest/java/org/elasticsearch/cluster/routing/ShardRoutingRoleIT.java
}
                    return new NoOpEngine(EngineTestCase.copy(config, () -> -1L));
                }
            });
        }
    }
    @Override
    protected boolean addMockInternalEngine() {
        return false;
    }
    @Override
    protected Collection<Class<? extends Plugin>> nodePlugins() {
        return CollectionUtils.concatLists(List.of(MockTransportService.TestPlugin.class, TestPlugin.class), super.nodePlugins());
    }
    @Override
    protected Settings nodeSettings(int nodeOrdinal, Settings otherSettings) {
        return Settings.builder()
            .put(super.nodeSettings(nodeOrdinal, otherSettings))
            .put(EnableAllocationDecider.CLUSTER_ROUTING_REBALANCE_ENABLE_SETTING.getKey(), EnableAllocationDecider.Rebalance.NONE)
            .build();
    }
    private static TestPlugin getMasterNodePlugin() {
        return internalCluster().getCurrentMasterNodeInstance(PluginsService.class)
            .filterPlugins(TestPlugin.class)
            .stream()
            .findFirst()
            .orElseThrow(() -> new AssertionError("no plugin"));
    }
    private static final String INDEX_NAME = "test";
    private static class RoutingTableWatcher implements ClusterStateListener {